WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessments leads

  1. Lead concentrations and risk exposure assessment in surface soils ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Lead concentrations and risk exposure assessment in surface soils at residential lands previously used for auto-mechanic and auto-welding activities in Port Harcourt, Nigeria. ... Journal of Applied Sciences and Environmental Management.

  2. 24 CFR 35.1320 - Lead-based paint inspections, paint testing, risk assessments, lead-hazard screens, and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Lead-based paint inspections, paint testing, risk assessments, lead-hazard screens, and reevaluations. 35.1320 Section 35.1320 Housing and Urban Development Office of the Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development LEAD-BASED PAINT...

  3. Lead intoxication in dogs: risk assessment of feeding dogs trimmings of lead-shot game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Høgåsen, Helga R; Ørnsrud, Robin; Knutsen, Helle K; Bernhoft, Aksel

    2016-07-25

    Expanding lead-based bullets, commonly used for hunting of big game, produce a scattering of lead particles in the carcass around the wound channel. Trimmings around this channel, which are sometimes fed to dogs, may contain lead particles. The aim of this study was to assess potential health effects of feeding dogs such trimmings. Lead ingestion most commonly causes gastrointestinal and neurological clinical signs, although renal, skeletal, haematological, cardiovascular and biochemical effects have also been reported. Experimental data indicate that a daily dose of around 1 mg lead as lead acetate/kg body weight for ten days may be considered as a Lowest Observed Effect Level in dogs. Acute toxicity documentation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicates 300 mg/kg body weight as the lowest dose of lead acetate causing death in dogs after oral ingestion. Our assessment suggests that dogs fed trimmings of lead-shot game may be affected by the amounts of lead present, and that even deadly exposure could occasionally occur. The intestinal absorption of lead from bullets was assumed to be 10-80 % of that of lead acetate, reflecting both the variability in particle size and uncertainty about the bioavailability of metallic lead in dogs. Despite data gaps, this study indicates that feeding dogs trimmings of lead-shot game may represent a risk of lead intoxication. More research is needed to assess the exact consequences, if lead-based bullets are still to be used. Meanwhile, we recommend that trimmings close to the wound channel should be made inaccessible to dogs, as well as to other domestic or wild animals.

  4. Lead exposure through consumption of big game meat in Quebec, Canada: risk assessment and perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fachehoun, Richard Coovi; Lévesque, Benoit; Dumas, Pierre; St-Louis, Antoine; Dubé, Marjolaine; Ayotte, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Game meat from animals killed by lead ammunition may expose consumers to lead. We assessed the risk related to lead intake from meat consumption of white-tailed deer and moose killed by lead ammunition and documented the perception of hunters and butchers regarding this potential contamination. Information on cervid meat consumption and risk perception were collected using a mailed self-administrated questionnaire which was addressed to a random sample of Quebec hunters. In parallel, 72 samples of white-tailed deer (n = 35) and moose (n = 37) meats were collected from voluntary hunters and analysed for lead content using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. A risk assessment for people consuming lead shot game meat was performed using Monte Carlo simulations. Mean lead levels in white-tailed deer and moose killed by lead ammunition were 0.28 and 0.17 mg kg(-1) respectively. Risk assessment based on declared cervid meat consumption revealed that 1.7% of the surveyed hunters would exceed the dose associated with a 1 mmHg increase in systolic blood pressure (SBP). For consumers of moose meat once, twice or three times a week, simulations predicted that 0.5%, 0.9% and 1.5% of adults would be exposed to a dose associated with a 1 mmHg increase in SBP, whereas 0.9%, 1.9% and 3.3% of children would be exposed to a dose associated with 1 point intelligence quotient (IQ) decrease, respectively. For consumers of deer meat once, twice or three times a week, the proportions were 1.6%, 2.9% and 4% for adults and 2.9%, 5.8% and 7.7% for children, respectively. The consumption of meat from cervids killed with lead ammunition may increase lead exposure and its associated health risks. It would be important to inform the population, particularly hunters, about this potential risk and promote the use of lead-free ammunition.

  5. Human health risk assessment of lead from mining activities at semi-arid locations in the context of total lead exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jiajia; Huynh, Trang; Gasparon, Massimo; Ng, Jack; Noller, Barry

    2013-12-01

    Lead from historical mining and mineral processing activities may pose potential human health risks if materials with high concentrations of bioavailable lead minerals are released to the environment. Since the Joint Expert Committee on Food Additives of Food and Agriculture Organization/World Health Organization withdrew the Provisional Tolerable Weekly Intake of lead in 2011, an alternative method was required for lead exposure assessment. This study evaluated the potential lead hazard to young children (0-7 years) from a historical mining location at a semi-arid area using the U.S. EPA Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model, with selected site-specific input data. This study assessed lead exposure via the inhalation pathway for children living in a location affected by lead mining activities and with specific reference to semi-arid conditions and made comparison with the ingestion pathway by using the physiologically based extraction test for gastro-intestinal simulation. Sensitivity analysis for major IEUBK input parameters was conducted. Three groups of input parameters were classified according to the results of predicted blood concentrations. The modelled lead absorption attributed to the inhalation route was lower than 2 % (mean ± SE, 0.9 % ± 0.1 %) of all lead intake routes and was demonstrated as a less significant exposure pathway to children's blood, compared with ingestion. Whilst dermal exposure was negligible, diet and ingestion of soil and dust were the dominant parameters in terms of children's blood lead prediction. The exposure assessment identified the changing role of dietary intake when house lead loadings varied. Recommendations were also made to conduct comprehensive site-specific human health risk assessment in future studies of lead exposure under a semi-arid climate.

  6. Risk assessment of the presence of lead in hunted wild boar meat

    OpenAIRE

    National Committee for Food Safety

    2017-01-01

    Italian National Committee for Food Safety (CNSA) opinion No. 18 of 8 marzo 2017 on the Risk assessment of the presence of lead in hunted wild boar meat Wild game meat may have a higher content in lead than farmed animal meat, both due to the living and dietary habits of such animals and, especially, to the use of lead-based ammunition. The impact of wild game meat on the overall exposure of general consumers is negligible. However, the category of hunters eating meat of wild game sho...

  7. Editorial: Lead Risk Assessment and Health Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howard W. Mielke

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In 1980, Clair C. Patterson stated: “Sometime in the near future it probably will be shown that the older urban areas of the United States have been rendered more or less uninhabitable by the millions of tons of poisonous industrial lead residues that have accumulated in cities during the past century”. We live in the near future about which this quote expressed concern. This special volume of 19 papers explores the status of scientific evidence regarding Dr. Patterson’s statement on the habitability of the environments of communities. Authors from 10 countries describe a variety of lead issues in the context of large and small communities, smelter sites, lead industries, lead-based painted houses, and vehicle fuel treated with lead additives dispersed by traffic. These articles represent the microcosm of the larger health issues associated with lead. The challenges of lead risk require a concerted global action for primary prevention.

  8. Bioaccessibility and human health risk assessment of lead in soil from Daye City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Q.; Li, F.; Xiao, M. S.; Cai, Y.; Xiong, L.; Huang, J. B.; Fu, J. T.

    2018-01-01

    Lead (Pb) in soil from 4 sampling sites of Daye City was studied. Bioaccessibilities of Pb in soil were determined by the method of simplified bioaccessible extraction test (SBET). Since traditional health risk assessment was built on the basis of metal total content, the risk may be overestimated. Modified human health risk assessment model considering bioaccessibility was built in this study. Health risk of adults and children exposure to Pb based on total contents and bioaccessible contents were evaluated. The results showed that bioaccessible content of Pb in soil was much lower than its total content, and the average bioaccessible factor (BF) was only 25.37%. The hazard indexes (HIs) for adults and children calculated by two methods were all lower than 1. It indicated that there were no no-carcinogenic risks of Pb for human in Daye. By comparing with the results, the average bioaccessible HIs for adults and children were lower than the total one, which was due to the lower hazard quotient (HQ). Proportions of non-carcinogenic risk exposure to Pb via different pathways have also changed. Particularly, the most main risk exposure pathway for adults turned from the oral ingestion to the inhalation.

  9. Anemia risk in relation to lead exposure in lead-related manufacturing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nan-Hung Hsieh

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Lead-exposed workers may suffer adverse health effects under the currently regulated blood lead (BPb levels. However, a probabilistic assessment about lead exposure-associated anemia risk is lacking. The goal of this study was to examine the association between lead exposure and anemia risk among factory workers in Taiwan. Methods We first collated BPb and indicators of hematopoietic function data via health examination records that included 533 male and 218 female lead-exposed workers between 2012 and 2014. We used benchmark dose (BMD modeling to estimate the critical effect doses for detection of abnormal indicators. A risk-based probabilistic model was used to characterize the potential hazard of lead poisoning for job-specific workers by hazard index (HI. We applied Bayesian decision analysis to determine whether BMD could be implicated as a suitable BPb standard. Results Our results indicated that HI for total lead-exposed workers was 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.50–1.26 with risk occurrence probability of 11.1%. The abnormal risk of anemia indicators for male and female workers could be reduced, respectively, by 67–77% and 86–95% by adopting the suggested BPb standards of 25 and 15 μg/dL. Conclusions We conclude that cumulative exposure to lead in the workplace was significantly associated with anemia risk. This study suggests that current BPb standard needs to be better understood for the application of lead-exposed population protection in different scenarios to provide a novel standard for health management. Low-level lead exposure risk is an occupational and public health problem that should be paid more attention.

  10. Neighborhood level health risk assessment of lead paint removal activities from elevated steel bridges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conway, R.F.; Cohen, J.T.; Bowers, T.

    1999-07-01

    The New York City Department of Transportation (NYCDOT) has adopted strict containment and monitoring procedures during paint removal activities on its bridges because of the increasing awareness about lead poisoning in children in urban environments and the potential risk of lead-based paint releases during those activities. NYCDOT owns nearly 800 bridges scattered throughout New York City. Before undertaking paint removal activities as part of its ongoing preventive maintenance and rehabilitation program, NYCDOT recently conducted an analysis to determine the public health risk posed to children living near them. The analysis the first of its kind to assess the actual public health risk potential during both routine operations and upset conditions, or accidental releases evaluated the total and incremental blood lead levels from paint removal activities on more than 5,000 children from 6 months to 6 years old. Increases in baseline blood lead levels were estimated using several models, including EPA's Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model. This model estimates steady-state blood lead levels in children, reflecting exposure to lead in multiple media over an extended period of time. Increases in lead exposure from paint removal activities in the area surrounding the bridges was estimated using EPA's Industrial Source Complex (ISC3) model to calculate ambient air and deposition levels. Potential releases from the containment and ancillary equipment used in the paint removal process were modeled based on different release scenarios ranging from routine operations to complete failure of containment. To estimate the paint removal activities' contribution to long-term exterior dust lead levels (and its related interior component), a stochastic simulation model was developed for each block in the study area.

  11. Human health risk assessment of lead pollution in atmospheric deposition in Baoshan District, Shanghai.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuanyuan; Wang, Jun; Shi, Guitao; Sun, Xiaojing; Chen, Zhenlou; Xu, Shiyuan

    2011-12-01

    The lead (Pb) content in atmospheric deposition was determined at 42 sampling sites in Baoshan District of Shanghai, China. Based on exposure and dose-response assessments, the health risk caused by Pb exposure in atmospheric deposition was investigated. The results indicated that Pb was significantly accumulated in atmospheric deposition. The spatial distribution of Pb was mapped by geostatistical analysis, and the results showed that pollution hotspots were present at traffic and industrial zones. Ingestion was the main route of Pb exposure in both adults and children. For children the risk value was above 1, whereas it was below 1 for the adult group. Therefore, children belong to the high-risk group for Pb exposure from atmospheric deposition in the observed area of Shanghai, China.

  12. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  13. Assessment of the pollution and ecological risk of lead and cadmium in soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieczorek, Jerzy; Baran, Agnieszka; Urbański, Krzysztof; Mazurek, Ryszard; Klimowicz-Pawlas, Agnieszka

    2018-03-27

    The aim of the study was to assess the content, distribution, soil binding capacity, and ecological risk of cadmium and lead in the soils of Malopolska (South Poland). The investigation of 320 soil samples from differently used land (grassland, arable land, forest, wasteland) revealed a very high variation in the metal content in the soils. The pollution of soils with cadmium and lead is moderate. Generally, a point source of lead and cadmium pollution was noted in the study area. The highest content of cadmium and lead was found in the northwestern part of the area-the industrial zones (mining and metallurgical activity). These findings are confirmed by the arrangement of semivariogram surfaces and bivariate Moran's correlation coefficients. Among the different types of land use, forest soils had by far the highest mean content of bioavailable forms of both metals. The results showed a higher soil binding capacity for lead than for cadmium. However, for both metals, extremely high (class 5) accumulation capacities were dominant. Based on the results, the investigated soils had a low (Pb) and moderate (Cd) ecological risk on living components. Soil properties, such as organic C, pH, sand, silt, and clay content, correlated with the content of total and bioavailable forms of metals in the soils. The correlations, despite being statistically significant, were characterized by very low values of correlation coefficient (r = 0.12-0.20, at p ≤ 0.05). Therefore, the obtained data do not allow to define any conclusions as to the relationships between these soil properties. However, it must be highlighted that there was a very strong positive correlation between the total content of cadmium and lead and their bioavailable forms in the soils.

  14. PROJECTING POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSE OF PURPLE SEA URCHINS TO LEAD CONTAMINATION FOR AN ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of an ecological risk assessment case study at the Portsmouth naval Shipyard (PNS), Kittery, Maine, USA, the population level effects of lead exposure to purple sea urchin, Arbacia punctulata, were investigated using a stage-classified matrix population model. The model d...

  15. The Risk Factors of Child Lead Poisoning in China: A Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You Li

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: To investigate the risk factors of child lead poisoning in China. Methods: A document retrieval was performed using MeSH (Medical subject heading terms and key words. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS was used to assess the quality of the studies, and the pooled odd ratios with a 95% confidence interval were used to identify the risk factors. We employed Review Manager 5.2 and Stata 10.0 to analyze the data. Heterogeneity was assessed by both the Chi-square and I2 tests, and publication bias was evaluated using a funnel plot and Egger’s test. Results: Thirty-four articles reporting 13,587 lead-poisoned children met the inclusion criteria. Unhealthy lifestyle and behaviors, environmental pollution around the home and potential for parents’ occupational exposure to lead were risk factors of child lead poisoning in the pooled analyses. Our assessments yielded no severe publication biases. Conclusions: Seventeen risk factors are associated with child lead poisoning, which can be used to identify high-risk children. Health education and promotion campaigns should be designed in order to minimize or prevent child lead poisoning in China.

  16. Lead concentrations and risk exposure assessment in surface soils ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated lead concentrations in < 250 μm and < 75 μm of deposited dust and< 2000 μm, < 250 μm, and < 75 μm of surface soils at undeveloped residential lands leased to auto-mechanic artisans for a minimum of ten years and estimated exposure risk for children that will reside on the polluted lands after the ...

  17. Occupational exposure to lead--granulometric distribution of airborne lead in relation to risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carelli, G; Masci, O; Altieri, A; Castellino, N

    1999-07-01

    The amount of airborne lead absorbed by the body during occupational exposure depends not only on lead concentration in workplace air, but also on the granulometric distribution of the aerosol. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) set the lead Permissible Exposure Limit (PEL) at 50 micrograms/m3 on the basis of Bernard's model and a number of assumptions, including assumption "C", which predicts that the first 12.5 micrograms/m3 are made up of fine particles (aerodynamic diameter 1 micron. Occupational exposure to airborne lead at a concentration of 50 micrograms/m3 and a granulometric distribution calculated according to the above mentioned assumption, leads, in the model, to a mean blood level of 40 micrograms/dl. In the present study, we tested the validity of assumption "C" in the environmental air of a factory that manufactured crystal glassware containing 24% lead oxide. An 8-stage impactor was used to measure the particle size of airborne dust collected from personal and area samplings. Results indicate that, on the whole, assumption "C" cannot be considered valid in the work environment investigated in this study. As a result, lead absorption levels in exposed workers may be noticeably different from those predicted by the OSHA model. We therefore suggest that in order to make a correct evaluation of the risk of occupational exposure to lead, it is essential to integrate total airborne lead concentration with a measurement of the granulometric distribution of the aerosol.

  18. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  19. Whole-cell bioreporters and risk assessment of environmental pollution: A proof-of-concept study using lead

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Xiaokai; Qin, Boqiang; Deng, Jianming; Wells, Mona

    2017-01-01

    As the world burden of environmental contamination increases, it is of the utmost importance to develop streamlined approaches to environmental risk assessment in order to prioritize mitigation measures. Whole-cell biosensors or bioreporters and speciation modeling have both become of increasing interest to determine the bioavailability of pollutants, as bioavailability is increasingly in use as an indicator of risk. Herein, we examine whether bioreporter results are able to reflect expectations based on chemical reactivity and speciation modeling, with the hope to extend the research into a wider framework of risk assessment. We study a specific test case concerning the bioavailability of lead (Pb) in aqueous environments containing Pb-complexing ligands. Ligands studied include ethylene diamine tetra-acetic acid (EDTA), meso-2,3 dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA), leucine, methionine, cysteine, glutathione, and humic acid (HA), and we also performed experiments using natural water samples from Lake Tai (Taihu), the third largest lake in China. We find that EDTA, DMSA, cysteine, glutathione, and HA amendment significantly reduced Pb bioavailability with increasing ligand concentration according to a log-sigmoid trend. Increasing dissolved organic carbon in Taihu water also had the same effect, whereas leucine and methionine had no notable effect on bioavailability at the concentrations tested. We find that bioreporter results are in accord with the reduction of aqueous Pb 2+ that we expect from the relative complexation affinities of the different ligands tested. For EDTA and HA, for which reasonably accurate ionization and complexation constants are known, speciation modeling is in agreement with bioreporter response to within the level of uncertainty recognised as reasonable by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for speciation-based risk assessment applications. These findings represent a first step toward using bioreporter technology to streamline

  20. Whole-cell bioreporters and risk assessment of environmental pollution: A proof-of-concept study using lead.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaokai; Qin, Boqiang; Deng, Jianming; Wells, Mona

    2017-10-01

    As the world burden of environmental contamination increases, it is of the utmost importance to develop streamlined approaches to environmental risk assessment in order to prioritize mitigation measures. Whole-cell biosensors or bioreporters and speciation modeling have both become of increasing interest to determine the bioavailability of pollutants, as bioavailability is increasingly in use as an indicator of risk. Herein, we examine whether bioreporter results are able to reflect expectations based on chemical reactivity and speciation modeling, with the hope to extend the research into a wider framework of risk assessment. We study a specific test case concerning the bioavailability of lead (Pb) in aqueous environments containing Pb-complexing ligands. Ligands studied include ethylene diamine tetra-acetic acid (EDTA), meso-2,3 dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA), leucine, methionine, cysteine, glutathione, and humic acid (HA), and we also performed experiments using natural water samples from Lake Tai (Taihu), the third largest lake in China. We find that EDTA, DMSA, cysteine, glutathione, and HA amendment significantly reduced Pb bioavailability with increasing ligand concentration according to a log-sigmoid trend. Increasing dissolved organic carbon in Taihu water also had the same effect, whereas leucine and methionine had no notable effect on bioavailability at the concentrations tested. We find that bioreporter results are in accord with the reduction of aqueous Pb 2+ that we expect from the relative complexation affinities of the different ligands tested. For EDTA and HA, for which reasonably accurate ionization and complexation constants are known, speciation modeling is in agreement with bioreporter response to within the level of uncertainty recognised as reasonable by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for speciation-based risk assessment applications. These findings represent a first step toward using bioreporter technology to streamline

  1. Contaminant Characteristics and Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Soils from Lead-Zincs Melting Plant in Huize County, Yunnan Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LIU Xiao-yan

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to explore history environmental problems of lead-zinc smelting, Huize County, Yunnan Province, forty-two surface soil samples were collected randomly from 14 sampling sites surrounding lead-zinc smelting plant. Heavy metals(Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, Cd, As and Hg in all samples were determined by inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectroscopy and atomic fluorescence spectrophotometer. Contamination characteristics of heavy metals in soils were observed on the basis of background values of comprehensive pollution index method. Potential risk was evaluated by using the geoaccumulation index(Igeo, potential ecological risk index(RI and health risk assessment method. The results indicated that the average concentrations of Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, Cd, As and Hg were 92.25, 226.81, 1 567.45, 65.16, 394.66, 1 451.63, 11.16, 43.81, 0.47 mg·kg-1, respectively. Based on the Environmental Quality Standard for Soil, the multiple super scale of Cd concentration was highest, more than 274 times. According to the Igeo, Cd ranged from partial severity to serious degree. The RI indicated that the soils around lead-zinc smelting plant were at the serious ecological hazard level. Health risk assessment showed that Pb and Cd in soils surrounding old site had potential health risk to children.

  2. Application of IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of children aged 61–84 months old in central China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yanyan; Hu, Jia; Wu, Wei; Liu, Shuyun; Li, Mei; Yao, Na; Chen, Jianwei; Ye, Linxiang; Wang, Qi; Zhou, Yikai

    2016-01-01

    Few studies have focused on the accuracy of using the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model in Chinese children with site- and age-specific exposure data. This study aimed to validate the accuracy and sensitivity of the IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old. A total of 760 children were enrolled from two respective counties in Central China by using random cluster sampling method. Blood lead levels (BLLs) of all subjects were determined using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry, as well as that in the environmental media, such as air, drinking water, soil, dust and food. Age- and site-specific time-activity patterns and water consumption were evaluated by using questionnaires for children. Exposure parameters including outdoor and indoor activity time, ventilation rate and water consumption in this study were different from the default values of the IEUBK model. Statistical analysis revealed no significant differences between the predicted and observed BLLs. Diet and soil/dust lead intake contributed approximately 83.39% (57.40%–93.84% range) and 15.18% (3.25%–41.60% range) of total lead intake, respectively. These findings showed that the IEUBK model is suitable for lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old and diet acts as an important lead source. - Highlights: • The first time to fit and discuss the IEUBK model in China based on comprehensive local children exposure parameters. • Two different exposure scenarios to apply the IEUBK model in different conditions. • The first time to report the ventilation rate in Chinese children aged 61 to 84 months. • Highlight the role of dietary to lead intake for Chinese children.

  3. Application of IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of children aged 61–84 months old in central China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Yanyan [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Hu, Jia [Suzhou Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Suzhou, Jiangsu (China); Wu, Wei [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Liu, Shuyun [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Li, Mei [Hanyang Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Yao, Na; Chen, Jianwei [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Ye, Linxiang [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Wang, Qi, E-mail: lwq95@126.com [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China); Zhou, Yikai, E-mail: zhouyk@mails.tjmu.edu.cn [MOE Key Lab of Environment and Health, Institute of Environmental Medicine, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei (China)

    2016-01-15

    Few studies have focused on the accuracy of using the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model in Chinese children with site- and age-specific exposure data. This study aimed to validate the accuracy and sensitivity of the IEUBK model in lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old. A total of 760 children were enrolled from two respective counties in Central China by using random cluster sampling method. Blood lead levels (BLLs) of all subjects were determined using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry, as well as that in the environmental media, such as air, drinking water, soil, dust and food. Age- and site-specific time-activity patterns and water consumption were evaluated by using questionnaires for children. Exposure parameters including outdoor and indoor activity time, ventilation rate and water consumption in this study were different from the default values of the IEUBK model. Statistical analysis revealed no significant differences between the predicted and observed BLLs. Diet and soil/dust lead intake contributed approximately 83.39% (57.40%–93.84% range) and 15.18% (3.25%–41.60% range) of total lead intake, respectively. These findings showed that the IEUBK model is suitable for lead risk assessment of Chinese children aged 61–84 months old and diet acts as an important lead source. - Highlights: • The first time to fit and discuss the IEUBK model in China based on comprehensive local children exposure parameters. • Two different exposure scenarios to apply the IEUBK model in different conditions. • The first time to report the ventilation rate in Chinese children aged 61 to 84 months. • Highlight the role of dietary to lead intake for Chinese children.

  4. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  5. Determination of toxic elements (mercury, cadmium, lead, tin and arsenic) in fish and shellfish samples. Risk assessment for the consumers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmedo, P; Pla, A; Hernández, A F; Barbier, F; Ayouni, L; Gil, F

    2013-09-01

    Although fish intake has potential health benefits, the presence of metal contamination in seafood has raised public health concerns. In this study, levels of mercury, cadmium, lead, tin and arsenic have been determined in fresh, canned and frozen fish and shellfish products and compared with the maximum levels currently in force. In a further step, potential human health risks for the consumers were assessed. A total of 485 samples of the 43 most frequently consumed fish and shellfish species in Andalusia (Southern Spain) were analyzed for their toxic elements content. High mercury concentrations were found in some predatory species (blue shark, cat shark, swordfish and tuna), although they were below the regulatory maximum levels. In the case of cadmium, bivalve mollusks such as canned clams and mussels presented higher concentrations than fish, but almost none of the samples analyzed exceeded the maximum levels. Lead concentrations were almost negligible with the exception of frozen common sole, which showed median levels above the legal limit. Tin levels in canned products were far below the maximum regulatory limit, indicating that no significant tin was transferred from the can. Arsenic concentrations were higher in crustaceans such as fresh and frozen shrimps. The risk assessment performed indicated that fish and shellfish products were safe for the average consumer, although a potential risk cannot be dismissed for regular or excessive consumers of particular fish species, such as tuna, swordfish, blue shark and cat shark (for mercury) and common sole (for lead). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  7. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  8. Assessment of soil lead exposure in children in Shenyang, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, H.M.; Wang, J.D.; Zhang, X.L.

    2006-01-01

    Soil lead pollution is serious in Shenyang, China. The paper brings together the soil work, the bioaccessibility, and the blood lead data to assess the soil lead exposure in children in Shenyang, China. Approximately 15.25% of the samples were above China Environment Protection Agency guideline concentration for soil Pb to protect human from health risk (350 mg kg -1 ). Pb concentrations varied among use scenarios. The main lead contamination sources are industry emission and automobile exhaust. Bioaccessibility also varied among use scenarios. Children, who ingested soil from industrial area, public parks, kindergarten playground, and commercial area, are more susceptible to soil lead toxicity. The industrial area soil samples presented higher bioaccessibility compared to the other use scenario soil samples contaminated by automobile exhaust. The result also suggested a most significant linear relationship between the level of Pb contamination and the amount of Pb mobilized from soil into ingestion juice. Soil pH seemed to have insignificant influence on bioaccessibility in the present study. Bioaccessibility was mainly controlled by other factors that are not investigated in this study. A linear relationship between children blood lead and soil intestinal bioaccessibility was present in the study. Children who are 4-5 years old are more likely to demonstrate the significant relationship between soil lead bioaccessibility and blood lead as their behaviors place them at greatest risk of soil lead toxicity, and their blood lead levels are more likely to represent recent exposure. - Children were exposed to soil lead and the exposure was assessed by bioaccessibility using in vitro digestion model in a modified version

  9. Health risk assessment of heavy metals (cadmium, nickel, lead and zinc in withdrawed parsley vegetable from some farms in Hamedan city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Cheraghi

    2014-11-01

    Results: Average concentration of cadmium, nickel, lead and zinc in parsley vegetable is in the order of 1/14, 2/56, 16/65 and 25/23 mg/kg and average concentration of this metals in soil is in the order of 0/23, 23/51, 20/85 and 57/5 mg/kg. Results of this study showed that average concentration of Cadmium and Leadin parsley is above WHO/FAO whereas average concentration of Nickel and Zink in parsleywas assessed less than WHO/FAO. Also the average concentration of every four metals in soil of farms was less than WHO/FAO levels.On the other hand the amount of risk and health index (HRI in parsley for lead metal was above 1 and for cadmium, nickel and zinc metals was less than 1. Conclusion: According to the studing results, cultivated parsley in this area was polluted to the heavy metalsCadmium and Lead, and the results indicates the very easy transferring of this metals from soil to parsley that was not healthy for human daily consumption and risk and health index (HRI that was above 1 for lead metal shows the hygienic potential risk of this metal in relation to the polluted parsley consumption in human daily alimentary diet.

  10. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

  11. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  12. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  13. Risk assessment and food allergy: the probabilistic model applied to allergens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spanjersberg, M.Q.I.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Rennen, M.A.J.; Houben, G.F.

    2007-01-01

    In order to assess the risk of unintended exposure to food allergens, traditional deterministic risk assessment is usually applied, leading to inconsequential conclusions as 'an allergic reaction cannot be excluded'. TNO therefore developed a quantitative risk assessment model for allergens based on

  14. Fall Risk Assessment Through Automatic Combination of Clinical Fall Risk Factors and Body-Worn Sensor Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Barry R; Redmond, Stephen J; Caulfield, Brian

    2017-05-01

    Falls are the leading global cause of accidental death and disability in older adults and are the most common cause of injury and hospitalization. Accurate, early identification of patients at risk of falling, could lead to timely intervention and a reduction in the incidence of fall-related injury and associated costs. We report a statistical method for fall risk assessment using standard clinical fall risk factors (N = 748). We also report a means of improving this method by automatically combining it, with a fall risk assessment algorithm based on inertial sensor data and the timed-up-and-go test. Furthermore, we provide validation data on the sensor-based fall risk assessment method using a statistically independent dataset. Results obtained using cross-validation on a sample of 292 community dwelling older adults suggest that a combined clinical and sensor-based approach yields a classification accuracy of 76.0%, compared to either 73.6% for sensor-based assessment alone, or 68.8% for clinical risk factors alone. Increasing the cohort size by adding an additional 130 subjects from a separate recruitment wave (N = 422), and applying the same model building and validation method, resulted in a decrease in classification performance (68.5% for combined classifier, 66.8% for sensor data alone, and 58.5% for clinical data alone). This suggests that heterogeneity between cohorts may be a major challenge when attempting to develop fall risk assessment algorithms which generalize well. Independent validation of the sensor-based fall risk assessment algorithm on an independent cohort of 22 community dwelling older adults yielded a classification accuracy of 72.7%. Results suggest that the present method compares well to previously reported sensor-based fall risk assessment methods in assessing falls risk. Implementation of objective fall risk assessment methods on a large scale has the potential to improve quality of care and lead to a reduction in associated hospital

  15. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  16. Risk Assessments by Female Victims of Intimate Partner Violence: Predictors of Risk Perceptions and Comparison to an Actuarial Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor-Smith, Jennifer K.; Henning, Kris; Moore, Stephanie; Holdford, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Recent studies support the validity of both structured risk assessment tools and victim perceptions as predictors of risk for repeat intimate partner violence (IPV). Combining structured risk assessments and victim risk assessments leads to better predictions of repeat violence than either alone, suggesting that the two forms of assessment provide…

  17. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  18. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  19. Blood lead levels and risk factors for lead poisoning among children in Jakarta, Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albalak, Rachel; Noonan, Gary; Buchanan, Sharunda; Flanders, W. Dana; Gotway-Crawford, Carol; Blumenthal, Wendy; Curtis, Gerald; McGeehin, Michael A. [Division of Environmental Hazards and Health Effects, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd. Mailstop E-19, Atlanta, GA 30333 (United States); Kim, Dennis; Tan, Regina [Epidemic Intelligence Service, Epidemiology Program Office, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd. Mailstop D-18, Atlanta, GA 30333 (United States); Jones, Robert L. [Division of Laboratory Sciences, National Center for Environmental Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd. Mailstop F-18, Atlanta, GA 30333 (United States); Sulaiman, Rini [Swisscontact, Jl. Wijaya XII No. 44, Jakarta (Indonesia) 12160

    2003-01-01

    The phase-out of leaded gasoline began in Jakarta, Indonesia on July 1, 2001. We evaluated mean blood lead levels (BLLs) and the prevalence of elevated BLLs of Jakarta school children and assessed risk factors for lead exposure in these children before the beginning of the phase-out activities. The study involved a population-based, cross-sectional blood lead survey that included capillary blood lead sampling and a brief questionnaire on risk factors for lead poisoning. A cluster survey design was used. Forty clusters, defined as primary schools in Jakarta, and 15 2nd- and 3rd-grade children in each cluster were randomly selected for participation in the study. The average age of children in this study was 8.6 years (range 6-12) and the geometric mean BLL of the children was 8.6 {mu}g/dl (median: 8.6 {mu}g/dl; range: 2.6-24.1 {mu}g/dl) (n=397). Thirty-five percent of children had BLLs {>=}10 {mu}g/dl and 2.4% had BLLs {>=}20 {mu}g/dl. Approximately one-fourth of children had BLLs 10-14.9 {mu}g/dl. In multivariate models, level of education of the child's primary caregiver, water collection method, home varnishing and occupational recycling of metals, other than lead, by a family member were predictors of log BLLs after adjustment for age and sex. BLLs of children who lived near a highway or major intersection were significantly higher than those of children who lived near a street with little or no traffic when level of education was not included in the model. Water collection method was a significant predictor of BLLs {>=}10 {mu}g/dl after adjustment for age and sex. BLLs in children in this study were moderately high and consistent with BLLs of children in other countries where leaded gasoline is used. With the phase-out of leaded gasoline, BLLs of children in Jakarta are expected to rapidly decline as they have in other countries that have phased lead out of gasoline.

  20. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  1. Mixtures and their risk assessment in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Moiz M; Hansen, Hugh; Pohl, Hana R

    2011-01-01

    For communities generally and for persons living in the vicinity of waste sites specifically, potential exposures to chemical mixtures are genuine concerns. Such concerns often arise from perceptions of a site's higher than anticipated toxicity due to synergistic interactions among chemicals. This chapter outlines some historical approaches to mixtures risk assessment. It also outlines ATSDR's current approach to toxicity risk assessment. The ATSDR's joint toxicity assessment guidance for chemical mixtures addresses interactions among components of chemical mixtures. The guidance recommends a series of steps that include simple calculations for a systematic analysis of data leading to conclusions regarding any hazards chemical mixtures might pose. These conclusions can, in turn, lead to recommendations such as targeted research to fill data gaps, development of new methods using current science, and health education to raise awareness of residents and health care providers. The chapter also provides examples of future trends in chemical mixtures assessment.

  2. Risk-based environmental assessment for uranium mines – Some Canadian and Australian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phaneuf, M.; McKee, M.; Woods, P.

    2014-01-01

    The Risk-Based Approach to Environmental Assessment in Australia: • This has emerged over the last 2 decades; • Currently usually based around the Australian and New Zealand standard (AS4360:1999) for risk assessment: • Potential impact events; • Inherent risk levels (e.g. low, moderate) using a matrix approach; • Design and operational control measures; • Residual risk levels; • Outcomes to be achieved; • Outcomes measurement criteria - • Leading to ‘compliance’ monitoring; • Leading indicator criteria - • Leading to ‘early warning’ monitoring

  3. Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

    2018-03-01

    The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

  4. Use of the Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique can lead to more robust risk control options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Card, Alan J; Simsekler, Mecit Can Emre; Clark, Michael; Ward, James R; Clarkson, P John

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment is widely used to improve patient safety, but healthcare workers are not trained to design robust solutions to the risks they uncover. This leads to an overreliance on the weakest category of risk control recommendations: administrative controls. Increasing the proportion of non-administrative risk control options (NARCOs) generated would enable (though not ensure) the adoption of more robust solutions. Experimentally assess a method for generating stronger risk controls: The Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique. Participants generated risk control options in response to two patient safety scenarios. Scenario 1 (baseline): All participants used current practice (unstructured brainstorming). Scenario 2: Control group used current practice; intervention group used the GO-ARC Technique. To control for individual differences between participants, analysis focused on the change in the proportion of NARCOs for each group. Proportion of NARCOs decreased from 0.18 at baseline to 0.12. Intervention group: Proportion increased from 0.10 at baseline to 0.29 using the GO-ARC Technique. Results were statistically significant. There was no decrease in the number of administrative controls generated by the intervention group. The Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique appears to lead to more robust risk control options.

  5. Health risk assessment of various metal(loid)s via multiple exposure pathways on children living near a typical lead-acid battery plant, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Suzhen; Duan, Xiaoli; Zhao, Xiuge; Wang, Beibei; Ma, Jin; Fan, Delong; Sun, Chengye; He, Bin; Wei, Fusheng; Jiang, Guibin

    2015-01-01

    Manufacture of lead-acid batteries is of widespread interest because of its emissions of heavy metals and metalloids into environment, harming environmental quality and consequently causing detrimental effects on human health. In this study, exposure pathways and health risks of children to heavy metal(loid)s (Pb, Cd, As, etc) were investigated based on field sampling and questionnaire. Pb was one of the most abundant elements in children's blood, with an elevated blood lead level of 12.45 μg dL −1 . Soil/dust and food were heavily polluted by targeted metal(loid)s. Food ingestion accounted for more than 80% of the total exposure for most metal(loid)s. The non-cancer risks to children were 3–10 times higher than the acceptable level of 1, while the cancer risks were 5–200 times higher than the maximum acceptable level of 1.0 × 10 −4 . The study emphasized the significance of effective environmental management, particularly to ensure food security near battery facilities. - Highlights: • The health risks of children living around a typical lead-acid battery was analyzed. • The exposure pathways of children to 12 heavy metal(loid)s were assessed. • Courtyard soil and indoor dust and duplicate food were contaminated by metal(loid)s. • Food ingestion was the major pathway for children's exposure to most metal(loid)s. • Higher potentially non-cancer and cancer risks happened to the local children. - The children living around a typical lead-acid battery plant suffered from serious health risks, which mainly attributed to food ingestion and air inhalation exposure

  6. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  7. Risk assessment of pet-traded decapod crustaceans in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the leading country in Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uderbayev Talgat

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The pet trade with decapod crustaceans has been considered one of the main pathway of introduction of these animals worldwide. As the leading markets in this regards are the Czech Republic, Germany and the USA. Central Asia is not perceived as an important market with ornamental decapod crustaceans. Despite this assumption, we found at least 16 species of freshwater shrimp, crayfish and crab species pet-traded in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the largest country in this region. Considering computed risk assessment, the origin of particular species, their availability on the market, the probability of establishment and further aspects, we identified two crayfish Procambarus clarkii and Procambarus fallax f. virginalis being the seriously hazardous taxa with high potential to threaten native crayfish species as well as inhabited ecosystems. To prevent their introductions and to minimize the risks of mentioned species, similarly as in the case of European Union, we recommend the total ban of import, trade and keeping of these high-risk taxa within Central Asia.

  8. A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leveson, Nancy

    2015-01-01

    The goal of leading indicators for safety is to identify the potential for an accident before it occurs. Past efforts have focused on identifying general leading indicators, such as maintenance backlog, that apply widely in an industry or even across industries. Other recommendations produce more system-specific leading indicators, but start from system hazard analysis and thus are limited by the causes considered by the traditional hazard analysis techniques. Most rely on quantitative metrics, often based on probabilistic risk assessments. This paper describes a new and different approach to identifying system-specific leading indicators and provides guidance in designing a risk management structure to generate, monitor and use the results. The approach is based on the STAMP (System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) model of accident causation and tools that have been designed to build on that model. STAMP extends current accident causality to include more complex causes than simply component failures and chains of failure events or deviations from operational expectations. It incorporates basic principles of systems thinking and is based on systems theory rather than traditional reliability theory. - Highlights: • Much effort has gone into developing leading indicators with only limited success. • A systems-theoretic, assumption-based approach may be more successful. • Leading indicators are warning signals of an assumption’s changing vulnerability. • Heuristic biases can be controlled by using plausibility rather than likelihood

  9. Health Risk Ranking of Lead Contaminated Sites in Bagega Community, Zamfara State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alaba Olanreaju Clement

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: The release of lead dust during the processing of lead-gold ore has become an environmental threat. Therefore the protection of miners’ health and their environment required remediation which can be achieved by ranking the risk posed by lead in order to prioritize the allocation of resources during remediation. Methods: Soil and water samples were collected at BRC, BRG, BVC, BPA and BFA; BWE, BBH and BPO using stratified random and grab sampling methods. Lead concentrations in the samples were determined using AAS while health risk index (HRI via ingestion was estimated using USEPA equations. The ranking of HRI was done using Detailed Quantitative Risk Assessment while the difference between the HRI and USEPA standard were determined using one sample t test. Results: The result showed that BRC/10, BRG/03, BVC/11, BPA/02 and BFA/08 were ranked highest in soil samples, while BWE/02, BBH/09 and BPO/04 were ranked highest in water samples as they posed elevated health risk effects to miners. One sample t test established that the BRC, BPA, BFA and BPO were significantly different from United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA standard. Conclusion: The study discovered that the users of both the lead contaminated soil and water were seriously exposed to potential health risk. It therefore suggested that decision makers should give priority in allocating resources to those sites with elevated lead concentrations during the remediation.

  10. Association of dental enamel lead levels with risk factors for environmental exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olympio, Kelly Polido Kaneshiro; Naozuka, Juliana; Oliveira, Pedro Vitoriano; Cardoso, Maria Regina Alves; Bechara, Etelvino José Henriques; Günther, Wanda Maria Risso

    2010-10-01

    To analyze household risk factors associated with high lead levels in surface dental enamel. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 160 Brazilian adolescents aged 1418 years living in poor neighborhoods in the city of Bauru, southeastern Brazil, from August to December 2008. Body lead concentrations were assessed in surface dental enamel acid-etch microbiopsies. Dental enamel lead levels were measured by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry and phosphorus levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry. The parents answered a questionnaire about their children's potential early (05 years old) exposure to well-known lead sources. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between dental enamel lead levels and each environmental risk factor studied. Social and familial covariables were included in the models. The results suggest that the adolescents studied were exposed to lead sources during their first years of life. Risk factors associated with high dental enamel lead levels were living in or close to a contaminated area (OR = 4.49; 95% CI: 1.69;11.97); and member of the household worked in the manufacturing of paints, paint pigments, ceramics or batteries (OR = 3.43; 95% CI: 1.31;9.00). Home-based use of lead-glazed ceramics, low-quality pirated toys, anticorrosive paint on gates and/or sale of used car batteries (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 0.56;3.03) and smoking (OR = 1.66; 95% CI: 0.52;5.28) were not found to be associated with high dental enamel lead levels. Surface dental enamel can be used as a marker of past environmental exposure to lead and lead concentrations detected are associated to well-known sources of lead contamination.

  11. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  12. Risk assessment for transportation of radioactive materials and nuclear explosives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.; Wilson, R.K.; Hartman, W.F.

    1991-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has the lead technical role for probabilistic risk assessments of transportation of nuclear weapons, components, and special nuclear material in support of the US Department of Energy. The emphasis of the risk assessments is on evaluating the probability of inadvertent disposal of radioactive material and the consequences of such a release. This paper will provide an overview of the methodology being developed for the risk assessment and will discuss the interpretation and use of the results. The advantages and disadvantages of using risk assessment as an alternative to performance-based criteria for packaging will be described. 2 refs., 1 fig

  13. Fetal exposure to lead during pregnancy and the risk of preterm and early-term deliveries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Lu; Zhang, Bin; Huo, Wenqian; Cao, Zhongqiang; Liu, Wenyu; Liao, Jiaqiang; Xia, Wei; Xu, Shunqing; Li, Yuanyuan

    2017-08-01

    Studies have reported the association between lead exposure during pregnancy and preterm birth. However, findings are still inconsistent. This prospective birth cohort study evaluated the risks of preterm and early-term births and its association with prenatal lead exposure in Hubei, China. A total of 7299 pregnant women were selected from the Healthy Baby Cohort. Maternal urinary lead levels were measured by the Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry. The associations between tertiles of urinary lead levels and the risks of preterm and early-term deliveries were assessed using multiple logistic regression models. The geometric mean of creatinine-adjusted urinary lead concentrations among all participating mothers, preterm birth, and early-term birth were 3.19, 3.68, and 3.17μg/g creatinine, respectively. A significant increase in the risk of preterm births was associated with the highest urinary lead tertile after adjusting for confounders with odds ratio (OR) of 1.96. The association was more pronounced among 25-36 years old mothers with OR of 2.03. Though significant p trends were observed between lead exposure (medium and high tertiles) and the risk of early-term births, their ORs were not significant. Our findings indicate that the risk of preterm birth might increase with higher fetal lead exposure, particularly among women between the age of 25 and 36 years. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  14. Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

  15. Are Lead Exposures a Risk in European Fresh Waters? A Regulatory Assessment Accounting for Bioavailability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Adam; Wilson, Iain; Merrington, Graham; Chowdhury, M Jasim

    2018-01-01

    An indicative compliance assessment of the Europe-wide bioavailable lead Environmental Quality Standard of 1.2 µg L -1 (EQS) was undertaken against regulatory freshwater monitoring data from six European member states and FOREGS database. Bio-met, a user-friendly tool based upon Biotic Ligand Models (BLMs) was used to account for bioavailability, along with the current European Water Framework Directive lead dissolved organic carbon correction approach. The outputs from both approaches were compared to the BLM. Of the 9054 freshwater samples assessed only 0.6% exceeded the EQS of 1.2 µg L -1 after accounting for bioavailability. The data showed that ambient background concentrations of lead across Europe are unlikely to influence general compliance with the EQS, although there may be isolated local issues. The waters showing the greatest sensitivity to potential lead exposures are characterized by relatively low DOC (< 0.5 mg L -1 ), regardless of the pH and calcium concentrations.

  16. Association of dental enamel lead levels with risk factors for environmental exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Polido Kaneshiro Olympio

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To analyze household risk factors associated with high lead levels in surface dental enamel. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 160 Brazilian adolescents aged 14-18 years living in poor neighborhoods in the city of Bauru, southeastern Brazil, from August to December 2008. Body lead concentrations were assessed in surface dental enamel acid-etch microbiopsies. Dental enamel lead levels were measured by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry and phosphorus levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry. The parents answered a questionnaire about their children's potential early (05 years old exposure to well-known lead sources. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between dental enamel lead levels and each environmental risk factor studied. Social and familial covariables were included in the models. RESULTS: The results suggest that the adolescents studied were exposed to lead sources during their first years of life. Risk factors associated with high dental enamel lead levels were living in or close to a contaminated area (OR = 4.49; 95% CI: 1.69;11.97; and member of the household worked in the manufacturing of paints, paint pigments, ceramics or batteries (OR = 3.43; 95% CI: 1.31;9.00. Home-based use of lead-glazed ceramics, low-quality pirated toys, anticorrosive paint on gates and/or sale of used car batteries (OR = 1.31; 95% CI: 0.56;3.03 and smoking (OR = 1.66; 95% CI: 0.52;5.28 were not found to be associated with high dental enamel lead levels. CONCLUSIONS: Surface dental enamel can be used as a marker of past environmental exposure to lead and lead concentrations detected are associated to well-known sources of lead contamination.

  17. Of risks and regulations: how leading U.S. nanoscientists form policy stances about nanotechnology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corley, Elizabeth A., E-mail: elizabeth.corley@asu.ed [Arizona State University, School of Public Affairs (United States); Scheufele, Dietram A. [University of Wisconsin, Department of Life Sciences Communication (United States); Hu Qian [Arizona State University, School of Public Affairs (United States)

    2009-10-15

    Even though there is a high degree of scientific uncertainty about the risks of nanotechnology, many scholars have argued that policy-making cannot be placed on hold until risk assessments are complete (Faunce, Med J Aust 186(4):189-191, 2007; Kuzma, J Nanopart Res 9(1):165-182, 2007; O'Brien and Cummins, Hum Ecol Risk Assess 14(3):568-592, 2008; Powell et al., Environ Manag 42(3):426-443, 2008). In the absence of risk assessment data, decision makers often rely on scientists' input about risks and regulation to make policy decisions. The research we present here goes beyond the earlier descriptive studies about nanotechnology regulation to explore the heuristics that the leading U.S. nanoscientists use when they make policy decisions about regulating nanotechnology. In particular, we explore the relationship between nanoscientists' risk and benefit perceptions and their support for nanotech regulation. We conclude that nanoscientists are more supportive of regulating nanotechnology when they perceive higher levels of risks; yet, their perceived benefits about nanotechnology do not significantly impact their support for nanotech regulation. We also find some gender and disciplinary differences among the nanoscientists. Males are less supportive of nanotech regulation than their female peers and materials scientists are more supportive of nanotechnology regulation than scientists in other fields. Lastly, our findings illustrate that the leading U.S. nanoscientists see the areas of surveillance/privacy, human enhancement, medicine, and environment as the nanotech application areas that are most in need of new regulations.

  18. Of risks and regulations: how leading U.S. nanoscientists form policy stances about nanotechnology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheufele, Dietram A.; Hu, Qian

    2009-01-01

    Even though there is a high degree of scientific uncertainty about the risks of nanotechnology, many scholars have argued that policy-making cannot be placed on hold until risk assessments are complete (Faunce, Med J Aust 186(4):189–191, 2007; Kuzma, J Nanopart Res 9(1):165–182, 2007; O’Brien and Cummins, Hum Ecol Risk Assess 14(3):568–592, 2008; Powell et al., Environ Manag 42(3):426–443, 2008). In the absence of risk assessment data, decision makers often rely on scientists’ input about risks and regulation to make policy decisions. The research we present here goes beyond the earlier descriptive studies about nanotechnology regulation to explore the heuristics that the leading U.S. nanoscientists use when they make policy decisions about regulating nanotechnology. In particular, we explore the relationship between nanoscientists’ risk and benefit perceptions and their support for nanotech regulation. We conclude that nanoscientists are more supportive of regulating nanotechnology when they perceive higher levels of risks; yet, their perceived benefits about nanotechnology do not significantly impact their support for nanotech regulation. We also find some gender and disciplinary differences among the nanoscientists. Males are less supportive of nanotech regulation than their female peers and materials scientists are more supportive of nanotechnology regulation than scientists in other fields. Lastly, our findings illustrate that the leading U.S. nanoscientists see the areas of surveillance/privacy, human enhancement, medicine, and environment as the nanotech application areas that are most in need of new regulations. PMID:21170136

  19. Of risks and regulations: how leading U.S. nanoscientists form policy stances about nanotechnology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corley, Elizabeth A.; Scheufele, Dietram A.; Hu Qian

    2009-01-01

    Even though there is a high degree of scientific uncertainty about the risks of nanotechnology, many scholars have argued that policy-making cannot be placed on hold until risk assessments are complete (Faunce, Med J Aust 186(4):189-191, 2007; Kuzma, J Nanopart Res 9(1):165-182, 2007; O'Brien and Cummins, Hum Ecol Risk Assess 14(3):568-592, 2008; Powell et al., Environ Manag 42(3):426-443, 2008). In the absence of risk assessment data, decision makers often rely on scientists' input about risks and regulation to make policy decisions. The research we present here goes beyond the earlier descriptive studies about nanotechnology regulation to explore the heuristics that the leading U.S. nanoscientists use when they make policy decisions about regulating nanotechnology. In particular, we explore the relationship between nanoscientists' risk and benefit perceptions and their support for nanotech regulation. We conclude that nanoscientists are more supportive of regulating nanotechnology when they perceive higher levels of risks; yet, their perceived benefits about nanotechnology do not significantly impact their support for nanotech regulation. We also find some gender and disciplinary differences among the nanoscientists. Males are less supportive of nanotech regulation than their female peers and materials scientists are more supportive of nanotechnology regulation than scientists in other fields. Lastly, our findings illustrate that the leading U.S. nanoscientists see the areas of surveillance/privacy, human enhancement, medicine, and environment as the nanotech application areas that are most in need of new regulations.

  20. The impact of the human genome project on risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katarzyna Doerffer; Paul Unrau.

    1996-01-01

    The radiation protection approach to risk assessment assumes that cancer induction following radiation exposure is purely random. Present risk assessment methods derive risk from cancer incidence frequencies in exposed populations and associate disease outcomes totally with the level of exposure to ionizing red aeon. Exposure defines a risk factor that affects the probability of the disease outcome. But cancer risk can be affected by other risk factors such as underlying genetic factors (predisposition) of the exposed organism. These genetic risk factors are now becoming available for incorporation into ionizing radiation risk assessment Progress in the Human Genome Project (HOP) will lead to direct assays to measure the effects of genetic risk determinants in disease outcomes. When all genetic risk determinants are known and incorporated into risk assessment it will be possible to reevaluate the role of ionizing radiation in the causation of cancer. (author)

  1. Combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls and non-chemical risk factors on blood pressure in NHANES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, Junenette L.; Patricia Fabian, M.; Levy, Jonathan I.

    2014-01-01

    High blood pressure is associated with exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical risk factors, but epidemiological analyses to date have not assessed the combined effects of both chemical and non-chemical stressors on human populations in the context of cumulative risk assessment. We developed a novel modeling approach to evaluate the combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and multiple non-chemical risk factors on four blood pressure measures using data for adults aged ≥20 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2008). We developed predictive models for chemical and other stressors. Structural equation models were applied to account for complex associations among predictors of stressors as well as blood pressure. Models showed that blood lead, serum PCBs, and established non-chemical stressors were significantly associated with blood pressure. Lead was the chemical stressor most predictive of diastolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure, while PCBs had a greater influence on systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure, and blood cadmium was not a significant predictor of blood pressure. The simultaneously fit exposure models explained 34%, 43% and 52% of the variance for lead, cadmium and PCBs, respectively. The structural equation models were developed using predictors available from public data streams (e.g., U.S. Census), which would allow the models to be applied to any U.S. population exposed to these multiple stressors in order to identify high risk subpopulations, direct intervention strategies, and inform public policy. - Highlights: • We evaluated joint impact of chemical and non-chemical stressors on blood pressure. • We built predictive models for lead, cadmium and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). • Our approach allows joint evaluation of predictors from population-specific data. • Lead, PCBs and established non-chemical stressors were related to blood pressure.

  2. Combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls and non-chemical risk factors on blood pressure in NHANES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peters, Junenette L., E-mail: petersj@bu.edu; Patricia Fabian, M., E-mail: pfabian@bu.edu; Levy, Jonathan I., E-mail: jonlevy@bu.edu

    2014-07-15

    High blood pressure is associated with exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical risk factors, but epidemiological analyses to date have not assessed the combined effects of both chemical and non-chemical stressors on human populations in the context of cumulative risk assessment. We developed a novel modeling approach to evaluate the combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and multiple non-chemical risk factors on four blood pressure measures using data for adults aged ≥20 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2008). We developed predictive models for chemical and other stressors. Structural equation models were applied to account for complex associations among predictors of stressors as well as blood pressure. Models showed that blood lead, serum PCBs, and established non-chemical stressors were significantly associated with blood pressure. Lead was the chemical stressor most predictive of diastolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure, while PCBs had a greater influence on systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure, and blood cadmium was not a significant predictor of blood pressure. The simultaneously fit exposure models explained 34%, 43% and 52% of the variance for lead, cadmium and PCBs, respectively. The structural equation models were developed using predictors available from public data streams (e.g., U.S. Census), which would allow the models to be applied to any U.S. population exposed to these multiple stressors in order to identify high risk subpopulations, direct intervention strategies, and inform public policy. - Highlights: • We evaluated joint impact of chemical and non-chemical stressors on blood pressure. • We built predictive models for lead, cadmium and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). • Our approach allows joint evaluation of predictors from population-specific data. • Lead, PCBs and established non-chemical stressors were related to blood pressure.

  3. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  4. Comprehensive analysis of 5-aminolevulinic acid dehydrogenase (ALAD variants and renal cell carcinoma risk among individuals exposed to lead.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana M van Bemmel

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies are reporting associations between lead exposure and human cancers. A polymorphism in the 5-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase (ALAD gene affects lead toxicokinetics and may modify the adverse effects of lead. METHODS: The objective of this study was to evaluate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs tagging the ALAD region among renal cancer cases and controls to determine whether genetic variation alters the relationship between lead and renal cancer. Occupational exposure to lead and risk of cancer was examined in a case-control study of renal cell carcinoma (RCC. Comprehensive analysis of variation across the ALAD gene was assessed using a tagging SNP approach among 987 cases and 1298 controls. Occupational lead exposure was estimated using questionnaire-based exposure assessment and expert review. Odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: The adjusted risk associated with the ALAD variant rs8177796(CT/TT was increased (OR = 1.35, 95%CI = 1.05-1.73, p-value = 0.02 when compared to the major allele, regardless of lead exposure. Joint effects of lead and ALAD rs2761016 suggest an increased RCC risk for the homozygous wild-type and heterozygous alleles ((GGOR = 2.68, 95%CI = 1.17-6.12, p = 0.01; (GAOR = 1.79, 95%CI = 1.06-3.04 with an interaction approaching significance (p(int = 0.06. No significant modification in RCC risk was observed for the functional variant rs1800435(K68N. Haplotype analysis identified a region associated with risk supporting tagging SNP results. CONCLUSION: A common genetic variation in ALAD may alter the risk of RCC overall, and among individuals occupationally exposed to lead. Further work in larger exposed populations is warranted to determine if ALAD modifies RCC risk associated with lead exposure.

  5. Occupational exposures to leaded and unleaded gasoline engine emissions and lung cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Mengting; Siemiatycki, Jack; Lavoué, Jérôme; Pasquet, Romain; Pintos, Javier; Rousseau, Marie-Claude; Richardson, Lesley; Ho, Vikki

    2018-04-01

    To determine whether occupational exposure to gasoline engine emissions (GEE) increased the risk of lung cancer and more specifically whether leaded or unleaded GEE increased the risk. Two population-based case-control studies were conducted in Montreal, Canada. The first was conducted in the early 1980s and included many types of cancer including lung cancer. The second was conducted in the late 1990s and focused on lung cancer. Population controls were used in both studies. Altogether, there were 1595 cases and 1432 population controls. A comprehensive expert-based exposure assessment procedure was implemented and exposure was assessed for 294 agents, including unleaded GEE, leaded GEE and diesel engine emissions (DEE). Logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate ORs between various metrics of GEE exposure and lung cancer, adjusting for smoking, DEE and other potential confounders. About half of all controls were occupationally exposed to GEE. Irrespective of the metrics of exposure (any exposure, duration of exposure and cumulative exposure) and the type of lung cancer, and the covariates included in models, none of the point estimates of the ORs between occupational exposure to leaded or unleaded GEE and lung cancer were above 1.0. Pooling two studies, the OR for any exposure to leaded GEE was 0.82 (0.68-1.00). Our results do not support the hypothesis that occupational exposure to GEE increases the risk of lung cancer. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  6. BIOLOGICAL RESPONSES OF THE SEA URCHIN, ARBACIA PUNTULATA, TO LEAD CONTAMINATION FOR AN ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    An estuarine ecological risk assessment for the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNS) Kittery, ME, was conducted utilizing the U.S. EPA's Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). As part of the analysis phase of the ERA, laboratory studies were conducted to develop quantitative ...

  7. On the use of conservatism in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    It is common to use conservatism in risk assessments, replacing uncertain quantities with values that lead to a higher level of risk. It is argued that the approach represents a practical method for dealing with uncertainties and lack of knowledge in risk assessment. If the computed probabilities meet the pre-defined criteria with the conservative quantities, there is strong support for the “real risk” to meet these criteria. In this paper we look more closely into this practice, the main aims being to clarify what it actually means and what the implications are, as well as providing some recommendations. The paper concludes that conservatism should be avoided in risk assessments – “best judgements” should be the ruling thinking, to allow for meaningful comparisons of options. By incorporating sensitivity analyses and strength of knowledge judgements for the background knowledge on which the assigned probabilities are based, the robustness of the conclusions can be more adequately assessed. - Highlights: • The paper clarifies the meaning of conservatism in risk assessments. • It is shown that a conservative policy has severe shortcomings. • It is concluded that conservatism should be avoided in risk assessments. • “Best judgements” should be the ruling thinking. • Sensitivity analyses and strength of knowledge judgements are required.

  8. Assessment of Hair Aluminum, Lead, and Mercury in a Sample of Autistic Egyptian Children: Environmental Risk Factors of Heavy Metals in Autism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed, Farida El Baz; Zaky, Eman Ahmed; El-Sayed, Adel Bassuoni; Elhossieny, Reham Mohammed; Zahra, Sally Soliman; Salah Eldin, Waleed; Youssef, Walaa Yousef; Khaled, Rania Abdelmgeed; Youssef, Azza Mohamed

    2015-01-01

    The etiological factors involved in the etiology of autism remain elusive and controversial, but both genetic and environmental factors have been implicated. The aim of this study was to assess the levels and possible environmental risk factors and sources of exposure to mercury, lead, and aluminum in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) as compared to their matched controls. One hundred ASD children were studied in comparison to 100 controls. All participants were subjected to clinical evaluation and measurement of mercury, lead, and aluminum through hair analysis which reflects past exposure. The mean Levels of mercury, lead, and aluminum in hair of the autistic patients were significantly higher than controls. Mercury, lead, and aluminum levels were positively correlated with maternal fish consumptions, living nearby gasoline stations, and the usage of aluminum pans, respectively. Levels of mercury, lead, and aluminum in the hair of autistic children are higher than controls. Environmental exposure to these toxic heavy metals, at key times in development, may play a causal role in autism.

  9. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  10. Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, Rianne; Meesters, Johannes A.J.; Braak, ter Cajo J.F.; Meent, van de Dik; Voet, van der Hilko

    2016-01-01

    There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To

  11. Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, R.; Meesters, J.A.J.; Ter Braak, C.J.; Meent, D. van de; van der Voet, H.

    2016-01-01

    There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To deal

  12. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  13. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  14. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  15. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  16. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  17. A systemic ecological risk assessment based on spatial distribution and source apportionment in the abandoned lead acid battery plant zone, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Chen, Zhuang; Wang, Fei; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

    2018-07-15

    In China, potential heavy metal hazard around abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALBP) area has been a great concern but without detailed report. The distribution and sources of heavy metals in soils and so by risk assessment associated with ALBP are conducted in this contribution, based on geographies and statistics. Pb and Zn are quantitively identified to be still emitted from ALBP soil, and Cd as well As are from agricultural activity. We investigate vertical metal distribution, and fortunately find that metals migrate within limit of 40 cm below topsoil, which is higher than groundwater table. The visualized stable depths are Zn 40 cm, Pb, As 20 cm, and Cd 40 cm. The mapped pollution load index (PLI) suggests a high pollution level exists in ALBP soil. The estimation of potential ecological risk index (PERI) indicates a light ecological risk in studied area, while As and Cd mainly from agricultural activity possess 54% of total E ri . Health risk index (THI) is 0.178 for children, indicating non-cancer risks may be ignored in observed area. Though calculated risk is temporarily affordable, soil remediation and reduction of agricultural chemical reagents are recommended for preventing potential cumulative risk from further bioconcentration of heavy metals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Development and evolution of risk assessment for food allergens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crevel, Rene' W. R.; Baumert, Joseph L.; Baka, Athanasia

    2014-01-01

    The need to assess the risk from food allergens derives directly from the need to manage effectively this food safety hazard. Work spanning the last two decades dispelled the initial thinking that food allergens were so unique that the risk they posed was not amenable to established risk assessme...... provided valuable insights, leading to further refinements and generating testable hypotheses. Their application to estimate the risk posed by the concurrent consumption of two potentially contaminated foods illustrates their power....

  19. Misled about lead: an assessment of online public health education material from Australia's lead mining and smelting towns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Marianne; Green, Donna

    2016-01-06

    This study assesses the accuracy and comprehensiveness of online public health education materials from the three Australian cities with active lead mines and or smelters: Broken Hill, Mount Isa and Port Pirie. Qualitative content analysis of online Australian material with comparison to international best practice where possible. All materials provided incomplete information about the health effects of lead and pathways of exposure compared to best practice materials. Inconsistent strategies to reduce exposure to lead were identified among the Australian cities, and some evidence-based best practices were not included. The materials normalised environmental lead and neglected to identify that there is no safe level of lead, or that primary prevention is the best strategy for protecting children's health. Health education materials need to clearly state health risks from lead across developmental stages and for sensitive populations, integrate a primary prevention perspective, and provide comprehensive evidence-based recommendations for reducing lead exposure in and around the home. Families who rely on information provided by these online public education materials are likely to be inadequately informed about the importance of protecting their children from exposure to lead and strategies for doing so.

  20. Reduced risk estimations after remediation of lead (Pb) in drinking water at two US school districts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triantafyllidou, Simoni; Le, Trung; Gallagher, Daniel; Edwards, Marc

    2014-01-01

    The risk of students to develop elevated blood lead from drinking water consumption at schools was assessed, which is a different approach from predictions of geometric mean blood lead levels. Measured water lead levels (WLLs) from 63 elementary schools in Seattle and 601 elementary schools in Los Angeles were acquired before and after voluntary remediation of water lead contamination problems. Combined exposures to measured school WLLs (first-draw and flushed, 50% of water consumption) and home WLLs (50% of water consumption) were used as inputs to the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model for each school. In Seattle an average 11.2% of students were predicted to exceed a blood lead threshold of 5 μg/dL across 63 schools pre-remediation, but predicted risks at individual schools varied (7% risk of exceedance at a "low exposure school", 11% risk at a "typical exposure school", and 31% risk at a "high exposure school"). Addition of water filters and removal of lead plumbing lowered school WLL inputs to the model, and reduced the predicted risk output to 4.8% on average for Seattle elementary students across all 63 schools. The remnant post-remediation risk was attributable to other assumed background lead sources in the model (air, soil, dust, diet and home WLLs), with school WLLs practically eliminated as a health threat. Los Angeles schools instead instituted a flushing program which was assumed to eliminate first-draw WLLs as inputs to the model. With assumed benefits of remedial flushing, the predicted average risk of students to exceed a BLL threshold of 5 μg/dL dropped from 8.6% to 6.0% across 601 schools. In an era with increasingly stringent public health goals (e.g., reduction of blood lead safety threshold from 10 to 5 μg/dL), quantifiable health benefits to students were predicted after water lead remediation at two large US school systems. © 2013.

  1. Spatial distribution, health risk assessment, and isotopic composition of lead contamination of street dusts in different functional areas of Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Lanfang; Gao, Bo; Wei, Xin; Xu, Dongyu; Gao, Li

    2016-02-01

    Street dusts from heavy density traffic area (HDTA), tourism area (TA), residential area (RA), and educational area (EA) in Beijing were collected to explore the distribution, health risk assessment, and source of lead (Pb). The average concentration of Pb in TA was the highest among the four areas. Compared with other cities, Pb concentrations in Beijing were generally at moderate or low levels. The average value (14.05) of ecological risk index (RI) indicated that Pb was at "low pollution risk" status. According to the calculation on hazard index (HI), the ingestion of dust particles of children and adults was the major route of exposure to street dusts in four studied areas, followed by dermal contact. The lower values of HI than 1 further suggested that non-carcinogenic risks of Pb in the street dusts were in the low range. Comparing (206)Pb/(207)Pb and (208)Pb/(207)Pb ratios of street dusts with other environmental samples, it was found that atmospheric deposition of coal combustion dust might be the main pathway for anthropogenic Pb input to the street dusts in four functional areas.

  2. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  3. Marburg biosafety and biosecurity scale (MBBS): a framework for risk assessment and risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickmann, Petra; Apfel, Franklin; Biedenkopf, Nadine; Eickmann, Markus; Becker, Stephan

    2015-01-01

    Current risk assessment and risk communication of biosafety and biosecurity concerns lack a convenient metric and conceptual framework. The absence of such a systematic tool makes communication more difficult and can lead to ambiguous public perception of and response to laboratory biosafety incidents and biosecurity threats. A new 7-category scoring scale is proposed for incidents and situations in laboratories related to the handling of human and animal pathogens. The scale aims to help clarify risk categories, facilitate coordination and communication, and improve public understanding of risk related to biosafety and biosecurity.

  4. Modern Risk Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants High-Voltage Substations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ioan, S.; Hurdubetiu, S.; Marza, F.; Mocanu, M.; Stefan, M.

    2002-01-01

    The paper describes a first Romanian attempt to set up the methodology for risk assessment and control within high-voltage substations, developed for the Nuclear power plant in Cernavoda (Romania). Considering the present risk assessment methods the MENER Project will develop a new methodology, in line with the European Community legislation and with the specific regional needs. In order to correctly shape the necessary resources required by a risk analysis a large size enterprise (a nuclear power plant) is selected and the following five indicators will be estimated: the economic profit, environmental risk, indirect (future) risk, technology improvement and physic and psychological risk. The results are expected to considerably facilitate risk assessment, by: evaluating project acceptability; evaluating equipment compliance to regulatory criteria; estimating excluding clearances; easing the design of emergency programmes; identifying the equipment use restrictions; identifying the risk sources; selecting the maintenance and risk reduction methods; testing the procedures leading to future regulatory norms; suitability of the risk management system modification. The immediate result of employing modern risk assessment methods could be the decrease by one third of the expenses required by environment protection, staff health and labor safety and quality management. (author)

  5. Lead Concentrations and Risk Exposure Assessment in Surface ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    µm, < 250 µm, and < 75 µm of surface soils at undeveloped residential lands leased to ... mechanic yards may still be point sources of lead ..... therefore need to conduct a source apportionment ... heavy metals in soil profiles of automobile.

  6. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  7. Assessment of the potential health risks associated with the aluminium, arsenic, cadmium and lead content in selected fruits and vegetables grown in Jamaica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johann M.R. Antoine

    Full Text Available Thirteen Jamaican-grown food crops − ackee (Blighia sapida, banana (Musa acuminate, cabbage (Brassica oleracea, carrot (Daucus carota, cassava (Manihot esculenta, coco (Xanthosoma sagittifolium, dasheen (Colocasia esculenta, Irish potato (Solanum tuberosum, pumpkin (Cucurbita pepo, sweet pepper (Capsicum annuum, sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas, tomato (Solanum lycopersicum and turnip (Brassica rapa − were analysed for aluminium, arsenic, cadmium and lead by atomic absorption spectrophotometry and instrumental neutron activation analysis. The fresh weight mean concentrations in these food crops (4.25–93.12 mg/kg for aluminium; 0.001–0.104 mg/kg for arsenic; 0.015–0.420 mg/kg for cadmium; 0.003–0.100 mg/kg for lead were used to calculate the estimated daily intake (EDI, target hazard quotient (THQ, hazard index (HI and target cancer risk (TCR for arsenic, associated with dietary exposure to these potentially toxic elements. Each food type had a THQ and HI < 1 indicating no undue non-carcinogenic risk from exposure to a single or multiple potentially toxic elements from the same food. The TCR for arsenic in these foods were all below 1 × 10−4, the upper limit used for acceptable cancer risk. There is no significant health risk to the consumer associated with the consumption of these Jamaican-grown food crops. Keywords: Risk assessment, Heavy metals, Target hazard quotient, Target cancer risk, Hazard index, Food, Jamaican crops, Estimated daily intake

  8. A survey of ecological risk assessment at DOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnthouse, L.W.; Bascietto, J.; Joseph, T.; Bilyard, G.

    1992-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Risk-Based Standards Working Group is studying standard-setting and remedial action based on realistic estimates of human health and ecological risks. Federal and state regulations require DOE to assess ecological risks due to present and past operation of DOE facilities and ecological damage caused by remedial actions. Unfortunately, little technical guidance has been provided by regulatory agencies about how these assessments should be performed or what constitutes an adequate assessment. Active ecological research, environmental characterization, and ecological risk assessment programs are already underway at many locations. Some of these programs were established more than 30 years ago. Because of the strength of its existing programs and the depth of expertise available within the DOE complex, the agency is in a position to lead in developing ecological risk assessment procedures that are fully consistent with the general principles defined by EPA and that will ensure environmentally sound and cost-effective restoration of its sites. As a prelude to guidance development, the working group conducted a survey of ecological risk assessment activities at a subset of major DOE facilities. The survey was intended to (1) identify approaches now being used in ecological risk assessments performed by DOE staff and contractors at each site, (2) record successes and failures of these approaches, (3) identify new technical developments with potential for general application to many DOE facilities, and (4) identify major data needs, data resources, and methodological deficiencies

  9. The stochastic risks of radioactive radiation - risk assessment, risk proportions, dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindackers, K.H.

    1990-01-01

    The latest data on the delayed injury to the a-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki reveal that the effects of radiation are more severe than was estimated in the past. However, the application of these data to small dose rate radiation exposure over longer periods of time leads to an overestimation of the actual risk. The future supersonic aviation schemes for altitudes within 20,000 m should include early personnel check-ups for assessment of the required protective measures. (orig./DG) [de

  10. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  11. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  12. 78 FR 38318 - Integrated Science Assessment for Lead

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-26

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9827-4] Integrated Science Assessment for Lead AGENCY... availability of a final document titled, ``Integrated Science Assessment for Lead'' (EPA/600/R-10/075F). The... lead (Pb). DATES: The document will be available on or around June 26, 2013. ADDRESSES: The...

  13. Quantum chemistry in environmental pesticide risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villaverde, Juan J; López-Goti, Carmen; Alcamí, Manuel; Lamsabhi, Al Mokhtar; Alonso-Prados, José L; Sandín-España, Pilar

    2017-11-01

    The scientific community and regulatory bodies worldwide, currently promote the development of non-experimental tests that produce reliable data for pesticide risk assessment. The use of standard quantum chemistry methods could allow the development of tools to perform a first screening of compounds to be considered for the experimental studies, improving the risk assessment. This fact results in a better distribution of resources and in better planning, allowing a more exhaustive study of the pesticides and their metabolic products. The current paper explores the potential of quantum chemistry in modelling toxicity and environmental behaviour of pesticides and their by-products by using electronic descriptors obtained computationally. Quantum chemistry has potential to estimate the physico-chemical properties of pesticides, including certain chemical reaction mechanisms and their degradation pathways, allowing modelling of the environmental behaviour of both pesticides and their by-products. In this sense, theoretical methods can contribute to performing a more focused risk assessment of pesticides used in the market, and may lead to higher quality and safer agricultural products. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  14. Assessment and Remediation of Lead Contamination in Senegal

    OpenAIRE

    Donald E. Jones, MS; Assane Diop, BS; Meredith Block, MPA; Alexander Smith-Jones, BS; Andrea Smith-Jones, MS

    2011-01-01

    Background. This paper describes the impact of improper used lead-acid battery (ULAB) handling and disposal. A specific case study is presented describing the field assessment and remediation of lead contamination in a community in Senegal where at least 18 children died from lead poisoning. Objectives. The assessment and remediation process utilized to address the Senegal lead contamination has been used as a model approach to solving used lead-acid battery (ULAB) contamination in other e...

  15. A risk assessment for consumers of mourning doves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, J.; Kennamer, R.A.; Brisbin, I.L. Jr.; Gochfeld, M.

    1998-01-01

    Recreational and subsistence hunters and anglers consume a wide range of species, including birds, mammals, fish and shellfish, some of which represent significant exposure pathways for environmental toxic agents. This study focuses on the Department of Energy's (DOE's) Savannah River Site (SRS), a former nuclear weapons production facility in South Carolina. The potential risk of contaminant intake from consuming mourning doves (Zenaida macroura), the most popular United States game bird, was examined under various risk scenarios. For all of these scenarios the authors used the mean tissue concentration of six metals (lead, mercury, cadmium, selenium, chromium, manganese) and radiocesium, in doves collected on and near SRS. They also estimated risk to a child consuming doves that had the maximum contaminant level. The authors used the cancer slope factor for radiocesium, the Environmental Protection Agencies Uptake/Biokinetic model for lead, and published reference doses for the other metals. As a result of their risk assessments they recommend management of water levels in contaminated reservoirs so that lake bed sediments are not exposed to use by gamebirds and other terrestrial wildlife. Particularly, measures should be taken to insure that the hunting public does not h ave access to such a site. Their data also indicate that doves on popular hunting areas are exposed to excess lead, suggesting that banning lead shot for doves, as has been done for waterfowl, is desirable

  16. Evaluation of the role of risk perception in stakeholder engagement to prevent lead exposure in an urban setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harclerode, Melissa A; Lal, Pankaj; Vedwan, Neeraj; Wolde, Bernabas; Miller, Michael E

    2016-12-15

    Stakeholder engagement is a vital sustainable remediation practice for obtaining useful feedback and identifying societal needs. Evaluating and integrating risk perception of stakeholders into remediation and outreach efforts allows for greater insight, increases the likelihood of success and ultimately, benefits the community by protecting its members from environmental hazards. In this study, we identified risk perception factors that influenced residents' level of concern for mitigating their exposure to elevated concentrations of lead in household paint and historic fill material. Risk perception factors were assessed by an in-person survey conducted in public green spaces. The analysis of survey participants' responses indicated that their perception of risk to exposed lead was mostly influenced by the presence of hazardous materials in close proximity to their residence, the ability to address pollution, and awareness, interest, and individual accountability in mitigating environmental risks. Responses also revealed that residents considered risk of lead and soil pollution as less menacing than the presence of more immediate and perceptible risks posed by factors such as air and water pollution. In addition, the community seemed to exhibit "optimism bias" and did not identify itself at high risk to susceptible and immediate hazards, including lead exposure. This lack of concern over lead exposure created a significant obstacle to community participation in state-led education and outreach programs. By integrating risk perception analysis and increasing stakeholder engagement, we can bring more attention to this issue, educate the public about the threat of lead pollution, and efficiently use financial resources to implement a more sustainable solution. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Risk assessment of fluoride exposure in drinking water of Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guissouma, Wiem; Hakami, Othman; Al-Rajab, Abdul Jabbar; Tarhouni, Jamila

    2017-06-01

    The presence of fluoride in drinking water is known to reduce dental cavities among consumers, but an excessive intake of this anion might leads to dental and skeletal fluorosis. This study reports a complete survey of the fluoridated tap water taken from 100 water consumption points in Tunisia. The fluoride concentrations in tap water were between 0 and 2.4 mg L -1 . Risk assessment of Fluoride exposure was assessed depending on the age of consumers using a four-step method: hazard identification, toxicity reference values selection (TRVs), daily exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Our findings suggest that approximately 75% of the Tunisian population is at risk for dental decay, 25% have a potential dental fluorosis risk, and 20% might have a skeletal fluorosis risk according to the limits of fluoride in drinking water recommended by WHO. More investigations are recommended to assess the exposure risk of fluoride in other sources of drinking water such as bottled water. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Audit Risk Assessment in the Light of Current European Regulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciprian-Costel Munteanu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent European reforms on audit regulations have been motivated by efforts to increase audit quality, functioning and performance. We believe the adoption of Directive 2014/56 and Regulation 537/2014 strengthened the role of independent audit and risk committees, which will positively contribute towards audit quality. This paper aims to critically assess the status quo of audit risk assessment in current European standards and regulations, by conducting a theoretical analysis of different aspects of audit risk. Our main objective is to stress the importance of detecting inherent and control risk, which lead to material misstatement at the assertion level. They need to be assessed so as to determine the nature, timing and extent of further audit procedures necessary to obtain sufficient appropriate audit evidence. These pieces of evidence enable the auditor to express an opinion on the financial statements at an acceptably low level of audit risk. Therefore, we point to the fact that researchers as well as practitioners and policymakers have to be careful when using audit tools and assessing risk levels, as their conclusions continuously shape the regulations.

  19. Health risk assessment of lead for children in tinfoil manufacturing and e-waste recycling areas of Zhejiang Province, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xiaofeng [Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 630 Xin Cheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou 310051 (China); Centre for Environment and Population Health, Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, QLD 4111 (Australia); Miller, Greg [Centre for Environment and Population Health, Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, QLD 4111 (Australia); Ding, Gangqiang; Lou, Xiaoming; Cai, Delei; Chen, Zhijian; Meng, Jia; Tang, Jun [Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 630 Xin Cheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou 310051 (China); Chu, Cordia [Centre for Environment and Population Health, Griffith School of Environment, Griffith University, 170 Kessels Road, Nathan, QLD 4111 (Australia); Mo, Zhe; Han, Jianlong [Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 630 Xin Cheng Road, Binjiang District, Hangzhou 310051 (China)

    2012-06-01

    Tinfoil manufacturing and electronic waste (e-waste) recycling remain rudimentary processes in Zhejing Province, China, which could account for elevated blood lead levels (BLLs) and health impacts on children. We assessed the potential health risks of lead in tinfoil manufacturing and e-waste recycling areas. 329 children in total aged 11-12 who lived in a tinfoil manufacturing area (Lanxi), an e-waste recycling area (Luqiao) and a reference area (Chun'an) were studied. Lead levels in children's blood were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). Blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine, serum calcium, {delta}-Aminolaevulinic acid ({delta}-ALA) and intelligence quotient (IQ) were also measured. Geometric mean of BLLs in Lanxi, Luqiao and Chun'an were 8.11 {mu}g/dL, 6.97 {mu}g/dL, and 2.78 {mu}g/dL respectively, with 35.1%, 38.9% and 0% of children who had BLLs above 10 {mu}g/dL. The BLLs in exposed areas were much higher than those in the control area. Lanxi children had higher creatinine and calcium than Chun'an children, and Luqiao children had higher {delta}-ALA and lower calcium than Chun'an children. No significant differences of IQ were observed between Lanxi, Luqiao and Chun'an, however a negative relationship between BLLs and IQ was shown for the study children. The results indicated that lead pollution from e-waste recycling and tinfoil processing appears to be a potential serious threat to children's health. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer No report on tinfoil processing impact on children's health before. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Few studies reported health impacts of lead from e-waste processing. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Children with blood lead levels < 10 {mu}g/dL are associated with a decrease in IQ. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Threshold appears to exist at blood lead level of about 20 {mu}g/dL for urinary {delta}-ALA.

  20. Health risk assessment of lead for children in tinfoil manufacturing and e-waste recycling areas of Zhejiang Province, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiaofeng; Miller, Greg; Ding, Gangqiang; Lou, Xiaoming; Cai, Delei; Chen, Zhijian; Meng, Jia; Tang, Jun; Chu, Cordia; Mo, Zhe; Han, Jianlong

    2012-01-01

    Tinfoil manufacturing and electronic waste (e-waste) recycling remain rudimentary processes in Zhejing Province, China, which could account for elevated blood lead levels (BLLs) and health impacts on children. We assessed the potential health risks of lead in tinfoil manufacturing and e-waste recycling areas. 329 children in total aged 11–12 who lived in a tinfoil manufacturing area (Lanxi), an e-waste recycling area (Luqiao) and a reference area (Chun'an) were studied. Lead levels in children's blood were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). Blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum creatinine, serum calcium, δ-Aminolaevulinic acid (δ-ALA) and intelligence quotient (IQ) were also measured. Geometric mean of BLLs in Lanxi, Luqiao and Chun'an were 8.11 μg/dL, 6.97 μg/dL, and 2.78 μg/dL respectively, with 35.1%, 38.9% and 0% of children who had BLLs above 10 μg/dL. The BLLs in exposed areas were much higher than those in the control area. Lanxi children had higher creatinine and calcium than Chun'an children, and Luqiao children had higher δ-ALA and lower calcium than Chun'an children. No significant differences of IQ were observed between Lanxi, Luqiao and Chun'an, however a negative relationship between BLLs and IQ was shown for the study children. The results indicated that lead pollution from e-waste recycling and tinfoil processing appears to be a potential serious threat to children's health. - Highlights: ► No report on tinfoil processing impact on children's health before. ► Few studies reported health impacts of lead from e-waste processing. ► Children with blood lead levels < 10 μg/dL are associated with a decrease in IQ. ► Threshold appears to exist at blood lead level of about 20 μg/dL for urinary δ-ALA.

  1. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  2. Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism--a practical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahrni, Jennifer; Husmann, Marc; Gretener, Silvia B; Keo, Hong H

    2015-01-01

    Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice.

  3. Information systems outsourcing reasons and risks: a new assessment

    OpenAIRE

    González Ramírez, María Reyes; Gascó Gascó, José Luis; Llopis Taverner, Juan

    2010-01-01

    Outsourcing is currently going through a stage of unstoppable growth. This paper makes a proposal about the main reasons which may lead firms to adopt Outsourcing in Information Systems services. It will equally analyse the potential risks that IS clients are likely to face. An additional objective is to assess these reasons and risks in the case of large Spanish firms, while simultaneously examining their evolution over time. This study of outsourcing reasons and risks has been carried out f...

  4. A framework for cumulative risk assessment in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moretto, Angelo; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Solomon, Keith R; Pastoor, Timothy P; Wilks, Martin F; Embry, Michelle R

    2017-02-01

    The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) has developed a framework to support a transition in the way in which information for chemical risk assessment is obtained and used (RISK21). The approach is based on detailed problem formulation, where exposure drives the data acquisition process in order to enable informed decision-making on human health safety as soon as sufficient evidence is available. Information is evaluated in a transparent and consistent way with the aim of optimizing available resources. In the context of risk assessment, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) poses additional problems and questions that can be addressed using the RISK21 approach. The focus in CRA to date has generally been on chemicals that have common mechanisms of action. Recently, concern has also been expressed about chemicals acting on multiple pathways that lead to a common health outcome, and non-chemical other conditions (non-chemical stressors) that can lead to or modify a common outcome. Acknowledging that CRAs, as described above, are more conceptually, methodologically and computationally complex than traditional single-stressor risk assessments, RISK21 further developed the framework for implementation of workable processes and procedures for conducting assessments of combined effects from exposure to multiple chemicals and non-chemical stressors. As part of the problem formulation process, this evidence-based framework allows the identification of the circumstances in which it is appropriate to conduct a CRA for a group of compounds. A tiered approach is then proposed, where additional chemical stressors and/or non-chemical modulating factors (ModFs) are considered sequentially. Criteria are provided to facilitate the decision on whether or not to include ModFs in the formal quantitative assessment, with the intention to help focus the use of available resources to have the greatest potential to protect public health.

  5. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  6. Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Raybould

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment.

  7. Probabilistic mercury multimedia exposure assessment in small children and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morisset, Typhaine; Ramirez-Martinez, Alejandra; Wesolek, Nathalie; Roudot, Alain-Claude

    2013-09-01

    Emissions of mercury in the environment have been decreasing for several years. However, mercury species are still found in different media (food, water, air and breast-milk). Due to mercury toxicity and typical behaviour in children, we have conducted a mercury exposure assessment in French babies, and small children aged 0 to 36months. Consumption and mercury concentration data were chosen for the exposure assessment. The Monte Carlo technique has been used to calculate the weekly exposure dose in order to integrate inter-individual variability and parameter uncertainty. Exposure values have been compared to toxicological reference values for health risk assessment. Inorganic mercury median exposure levels ranged from 0.160 to 1.649μg/kg of body weight per week (95th percentile (P95): 0.298-2.027µg/kg bw/week); elemental mercury median exposure level in children was 0.11ng/kg bw/week (P95: 28ng/kg bw/week); and methylmercury median exposure level ranged from 0.247 to 0.273µg/kg bw/week (P95: 0.425-0.463µg/kg bw/week). Only elemental mercury by inhalation route (indoor air) and methylmercury by ingestion (fish and breast-milk) seem to lead to a health risk in small children. These results confirm the importance of assessing total mercury concentration in media like breast-milk, indoor air and dust and methylmercury level in food, other than fish and seafood. In this way, informed monitoring plan and risk assessment in an at-risk sub-population can be set. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A risk assessment methodology using intuitionistic fuzzy set in FMEA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Kuei-Hu; Cheng, Ching-Hsue

    2010-12-01

    Most current risk assessment methods use the risk priority number (RPN) value to evaluate the risk of failure. However, conventional RPN methodology has been criticised as having five main shortcomings as follows: (1) the assumption that the RPN elements are equally weighted leads to over simplification; (2) the RPN scale itself has some non-intuitive statistical properties; (3) the RPN elements have many duplicate numbers; (4) the RPN is derived from only three factors mainly in terms of safety; and (5) the conventional RPN method has not considered indirect relations between components. To address the above issues, an efficient and comprehensive algorithm to evaluate the risk of failure is needed. This article proposes an innovative approach, which integrates the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) approach on risk assessment. The proposed approach resolves some of the shortcomings of the conventional RPN method. A case study, which assesses the risk of 0.15 µm DRAM etching process, is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Finally, the result of the proposed method is compared with the listing approaches of risk assessment methods.

  9. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  10. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  11. Health risk assessment and dietary exposure of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), lead and cadmium from bread consumed in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udowelle, Nnaemeka Arinze; Igweze, Zelinjo Nkeiruka; Asomugha, Rose Ngozi; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere

    A risk assessment and dietary exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), lead and cadmium from bread, a common food consumed in Nigeria. Sixty samples of bread were collected from different types of bakeries where the heat is generated by wood (42 samples) or by electricity (18 samples) from twenty bakeries located in Gusau Zamfara (B1- B14) and Port Harcourt Rivers States (B15-B20) in Nigeria. PAHs in bread were determined by gas chromatography. Lead and cadmium were determined using atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Non-carcinogenic PAHs pyrene (13.72 μg/kg) and genotoxic PAHs (PAH8), benzo[a]anthracene (9.13 μg/ kg) were at the highest concentrations. Total benzo[a]pyrene concentration of 6.7 μg/kg was detected in 100% of tested samples. Dietary intake of total PAHs ranged between 0.004-0.063 μg/kg bw. day-1 (children), 0.002-0.028 μg/kg day-1 (adolescents), 0.01-0.017 μg/kg day-1 (male), 0.002-0.027 μg/kg day-1 (female), and 0.002-0.025 μg/kg day-1 (seniors). The Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) for Pb and Cd were below 1. Lead ranged from 0.01-0.071 mg/kg with 10.85 and 100% of bread samples violating the permissible limit set by USEPA, WHO and EU respectively. Cadmium ranged from 0.01-0.03 mg/kg, with all bread samples below the permissible limits as set by US EPA, JECFA and EU. The daily intake of Pb and Cd ranged from 0.03-0.23 μg/kg bw day-1 and 0.033-0.36 μg/kg bw day-1 respectively. Incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) was 3.8 x 10-7. The levels of these contaminants in bread if not controlled might present a possible route of exposure to heavy metals and PAHs additional to the body burden from other sources.

  12. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  13. Money laundering: correlation between risk assessment and suspicious transactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Cindori

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The risk assessment system was introduced in the Republic of Croatia in 2009, as a result of harmonization with international standards, especially the Directive 2005/60/EC on the prevention of the use of the financial system for the purpose of money laundering and terrorist financing. Risk assessment is an extensive concept which requires not only a legislative framework, but also the application of numerous criteria for its effective implementation in practice. Among these criteria are suspicious transactions, closely related to the assessment of the customer, transaction, product or service.The undeniable contribution of suspicious transactions to the quality of the risk assessment system will be confirmed by a statistical analysis of a number of West and East European countries. A combination of strict, but sufficiently flexible legal provisions governing the system for prevention of money laundering and terrorist financing and a statistical analysis of reported suspicious transactions will lead to conclusions that either support or represent criticism of the efficiency of application of the risk assessment system in practice.The aforementioned statistical analysis will show whether suspicious transactions are a reliable criterion for the risk assessment analysis, and whether they can be considered the only such criterion. There is a possibility that the findings of the analysis will be contradictory to those of some international studies.

  14. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  15. Environmental lead exposure among preschool children in Shanghai, China: blood lead levels and risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Cao

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To determine blood lead levels and to identify related risk factors among children in Shanghai; to explore the lead change trend of children after industrial transformation and to provide data for policy development to control environmental lead pollution in Shanghai. METHODS: A stratified-clustered-random sampling method was used. A tungsten atomizer absorption spectrophotometer was employed to determine blood lead levels. RESULTS: The arithmetic mean, geometric mean and median of blood lead levels of 0- to 6-year-old children from Shanghai were 22.49 µg/L, 19.65 µg/L and 19.5 µg/L, including 0.26% (6/2291 with concentrations ≥100 µg/L and 2.7% (61/2291 with concentrations ≥50 µg/L. Boys' levels (23.57 µg/L were greater than those of girls (21.2 µg/L. The blood lead levels increased with age. This survey showed that the Chongming district was the highest and Yangpu district was the lowest, this result is completely opposite with the earlier survey in Shanghai. Risk factors for lead contamination included housing environment, parents' education levels, social status, hobbies, and children's nutritional status. CONCLUSIONS: The blood lead levels of children in Shanghai were lower than the earlier data of Shanghai and those of published studies in China, but higher than the blood lead levels of developed countries. The blood lead levels of urban districts are higher than the central districts with the industrial transformation. Society and the government should take an active interest in childhood lead poisoning of urban areas.

  16. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  17. Genetic cancer risk assessment in practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruber, S.

    2004-01-01

    The advent of genetic testing has made a dramatic impact on the management of individuals with inherited susceptibility to cancer and their relatives. Genetic counsel ing, with or without testing, is warranted when clues to familial cancer are recognized. Today, genetic testing for classic cancer genetic syndromes is now the standard of care, and has been complemented by genetic testing for other situations commonly encountered in clinical practice. Genetic testing for colorectal cancer, breast cancer, kidney cancer, thyroid cancer, melanoma, and pancreatic cancer raise important issues about the parameters for testing. Genetic cancer risk assessment can lead to measurable reductions in morbidity and mortality through strategies that rely on surveillance, chemo prevention, and risk-reducing surgery

  18. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

  19. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  20. Seismic risk assessment and application in the central United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.

    2011-01-01

    Seismic risk is a somewhat subjective, but important, concept in earthquake engineering and other related decision-making. Another important concept that is closely related to seismic risk is seismic hazard. Although seismic hazard and seismic risk have often been used interchangeably, they are fundamentally different: seismic hazard describes the natural phenomenon or physical property of an earthquake, whereas seismic risk describes the probability of loss or damage that could be caused by a seismic hazard. The distinction between seismic hazard and seismic risk is of practical significance because measures for seismic hazard mitigation may differ from those for seismic risk reduction. Seismic risk assessment is a complicated process and starts with seismic hazard assessment. Although probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is the most widely used method for seismic hazard assessment, recent studies have found that PSHA is not scientifically valid. Use of PSHA will lead to (1) artifact estimates of seismic risk, (2) misleading use of the annual probability of exccedance (i.e., the probability of exceedance in one year) as a frequency (per year), and (3) numerical creation of extremely high ground motion. An alternative approach, which is similar to those used for flood and wind hazard assessments, has been proposed. ?? 2011 ASCE.

  1. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haigh, R.

    1992-01-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live! The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die!. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk assessment in one country alone or to

  2. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haigh, R [Industrial Medicine and Hygiene Unit Health and Safety Directorate, Directorate-General Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs Commission of the European Communities, Luxembourg (Luxembourg)

    1992-07-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live{exclamation_point} The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die{exclamation_point}. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk

  3. System Analysis and Risk Assessment system (SARA) Version 4.0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Russell, K.D.; Skinner, N.L.

    1992-01-01

    This NUREG is the tutorial for the System Analysis and Risk Assessment System (SARA) Version 4.0, a microcomputer-based system used to analyze the safety issues of a family [i.e., a power plant, a manufacturing facility, any facility on which a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) might be performed]. A series of lessons are provided that walk the user through some basic steps common to most analyses performed with SARA. The example problems presented in the lessons build on one another, and in combination, lead the user through all aspects of SARA sensitivity analysis

  4. Is risk assessment the new clinical model in public mental health?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Alex

    2013-12-01

    Australian public mental health services have seen a rapid adoption of risk assessment into clinical practice over the past decade. It is timely to review the role of risk assessment in clinical practice, evidence for its validity and to explore its role in clinical decision-making. There is little evidence to support the current form of risk assessment used in public mental health. The continued focus in risk may lead public psychiatrists into a bind where their specialist role is defined by a capacity that they do not fully possess. Further work is required to find ways of demonstrating our attention to the possibility of adverse outcomes whilst maintaining our skills and capacity to manage mental illness with complexity and balance within the limitations of rational decision-making.

  5. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  6. Establishing a family risk assessment clinic for breast cancer.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Mulsow, Jurgen

    2012-02-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting European women and the leading cause of cancer-related death. A total of 15-20% of women who develop breast cancer have a family history and 5-10% a true genetic predisposition. The identification and screening of women at increased risk may allow early detection of breast cancer and improve prognosis. We established a family risk assessment clinic in May 2005 to assess and counsel women with a family history of breast cancer, to initiate surveillance, and to offer risk-reducing strategies for selected high-risk patients. Patients at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer according to NICE guidelines were accepted. Family history was determined by structured questionnaire and interview. Lifetime risk of developing breast cancer was calculated using Claus and Tyrer-Cuzick scoring. Risk of carrying a breast cancer-related gene mutation was calculated using the Manchester system. One thousand two hundred and forty-three patients have been referred. Ninety-two percent were at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer. Formal assessment of risk has been performed in 368 patients, 73% have a high lifetime risk of developing breast cancer, and 72% a Manchester score >or=16. BRCA1\\/2 mutations have been identified in 14 patients and breast cancer diagnosed in two. Our initial experience of family risk assessment has shown there to be a significant demand for this service. Identification of patients at increased risk of developing breast cancer allows us to provide individuals with accurate risk profiles, and enables patients to make informed choices regarding their follow-up and management.

  7. INSTRUMENTS OF HIGH RISK SEXUAL BEHAVIOR ASSESSMENT: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzaei, Mojtaba; Ahmadi, Khodabakhsh; Saadat, Seyed-Hassan; Ramezani, Mohammad Arash

    2016-02-01

    Sexual behavior is a complex activity affecting all aspects of human's life. Risky sexual behaviors impose negative outcomes on family, relationships and health. Unsafe sex is the second most leading cause of disability adjusted life years worldwide. Valid and reliable tools for assessment of risky sexual behaviors are necessary for implementing preventive measures. we searched Medline and the Cochrane Library of Systematic Reviews, with the keywords of "risky sexual behavior assessment", "sexual risk assessment", "high risk sexual behavior", "sexual risk taking". By reviewing references of the articles, some complementary studies were added. Assessment can be performed by questionnaire or non-questionnaire instruments. Questionnaires vary depending on their target population, evaluation of risky sexual behavior as a whole or focusing on an associated risk factor. In order to avoid usual biases in self reports, objective biomarker assessment of unprotected sex are employed. These markers include prostate specific antigen, chromosome Y DNA and Seminogelin. Risky sexual behavior can be assessed by various subjective and objective methods. While self-reports are more feasible, objective methods offer a higher degree of reliability. Further studies for finding more feasible methods of using biomarkers are recommended.

  8. Linking geology and health sciences to assess childhood lead poisoning from artisanal gold mining in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Durant, James T.; Morman, Suzette A.; Neri, Antonio; Wolf, Ruth E.; Dooyema, Carrie A.; Hageman, Philip L.; Lowers, Heather; Fernette, Gregory L.; Meeker, Gregory P.; Benzel, William M.; Driscoll, Rhonda L.; Berry, Cyrus J.; Crock, James G.; Goldstein, Harland L.; Adams, Monique; Bartrem, Casey L.; Tirima, Simba; Behrooz, Behbod; von Lindern, Ian; Brown, Mary Jean

    2013-01-01

    Background: In 2010, Médecins Sans Frontières discovered a lead poisoning outbreak linked to artisanal gold processing in northwestern Nigeria. The outbreak has killed approximately 400 young children and affected thousands more. Objectives: Our aim was to undertake an interdisciplinary geological- and health-science assessment to clarify lead sources and exposure pathways, identify additional toxicants of concern and populations at risk, and examine potential for similar lead poisoning globally. Methods: We applied diverse analytical methods to ore samples, soil and sweep samples from villages and family compounds, and plant foodstuff samples. Results: Natural weathering of lead-rich gold ores before mining formed abundant, highly gastric-bioaccessible lead carbonates. The same fingerprint of lead minerals found in all sample types confirms that ore processing caused extreme contamination, with up to 185,000 ppm lead in soils/sweep samples and up to 145 ppm lead in plant foodstuffs. Incidental ingestion of soils via hand-to-mouth transmission and of dusts cleared from the respiratory tract is the dominant exposure pathway. Consumption of water and foodstuffs contaminated by the processing is likely lesser, but these are still significant exposure pathways. Although young children suffered the most immediate and severe consequences, results indicate that older children, adult workers, pregnant women, and breastfed infants are also at risk for lead poisoning. Mercury, arsenic, manganese, antimony, and crystalline silica exposures pose additional health threats. Conclusions: Results inform ongoing efforts in Nigeria to assess lead contamination and poisoning, treat victims, mitigate exposures, and remediate contamination. Ore deposit geology, pre-mining weathering, and burgeoning artisanal mining may combine to cause similar lead poisoning disasters elsewhere globally.

  9. Linking geological and health sciences to assess childhood lead poisoning from artisanal gold mining in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, Geoffrey S; Durant, James T; Morman, Suzette A; Neri, Antonio; Wolf, Ruth E; Dooyema, Carrie A; Hageman, Philip L; Lowers, Heather A; Fernette, Gregory L; Meeker, Gregory P; Benzel, William M; Driscoll, Rhonda L; Berry, Cyrus J; Crock, James G; Goldstein, Harland L; Adams, Monique; Bartrem, Casey L; Tirima, Simba; Behbod, Behrooz; von Lindern, Ian; Brown, Mary Jean

    2013-06-01

    In 2010, Médecins Sans Frontières discovered a lead poisoning outbreak linked to artisanal gold processing in northwestern Nigeria. The outbreak has killed approximately 400 young children and affected thousands more. Our aim was to undertake an interdisciplinary geological- and health-science assessment to clarify lead sources and exposure pathways, identify additional toxicants of concern and populations at risk, and examine potential for similar lead poisoning globally. We applied diverse analytical methods to ore samples, soil and sweep samples from villages and family compounds, and plant foodstuff samples. Natural weathering of lead-rich gold ores before mining formed abundant, highly gastric-bioaccessible lead carbonates. The same fingerprint of lead minerals found in all sample types confirms that ore processing caused extreme contamination, with up to 185,000 ppm lead in soils/sweep samples and up to 145 ppm lead in plant foodstuffs. Incidental ingestion of soils via hand-to-mouth transmission and of dusts cleared from the respiratory tract is the dominant exposure pathway. Consumption of water and foodstuffs contaminated by the processing is likely lesser, but these are still significant exposure pathways. Although young children suffered the most immediate and severe consequences, results indicate that older children, adult workers, pregnant women, and breastfed infants are also at risk for lead poisoning. Mercury, arsenic, manganese, antimony, and crystalline silica exposures pose additional health threats. Results inform ongoing efforts in Nigeria to assess lead contamination and poisoning, treat victims, mitigate exposures, and remediate contamination. Ore deposit geology, pre-mining weathering, and burgeoning artisanal mining may combine to cause similar lead poisoning disasters elsewhere globally.

  10. Linking Geological and Health Sciences to Assess Childhood Lead Poisoning from Artisanal Gold Mining in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durant, James T.; Morman, Suzette A.; Neri, Antonio; Wolf, Ruth E.; Dooyema, Carrie A.; Hageman, Philip L.; Lowers, Heather A.; Fernette, Gregory L.; Meeker, Gregory P.; Benzel, William M.; Driscoll, Rhonda L.; Berry, Cyrus J.; Crock, James G.; Goldstein, Harland L.; Adams, Monique; Bartrem, Casey L.; Tirima, Simba; Behbod, Behrooz; von Lindern, Ian; Brown, Mary Jean

    2013-01-01

    Background: In 2010, Médecins Sans Frontières discovered a lead poisoning outbreak linked to artisanal gold processing in northwestern Nigeria. The outbreak has killed approximately 400 young children and affected thousands more. Objectives: Our aim was to undertake an interdisciplinary geological- and health-science assessment to clarify lead sources and exposure pathways, identify additional toxicants of concern and populations at risk, and examine potential for similar lead poisoning globally. Methods: We applied diverse analytical methods to ore samples, soil and sweep samples from villages and family compounds, and plant foodstuff samples. Results: Natural weathering of lead-rich gold ores before mining formed abundant, highly gastric-bioaccessible lead carbonates. The same fingerprint of lead minerals found in all sample types confirms that ore processing caused extreme contamination, with up to 185,000 ppm lead in soils/sweep samples and up to 145 ppm lead in plant foodstuffs. Incidental ingestion of soils via hand-to-mouth transmission and of dusts cleared from the respiratory tract is the dominant exposure pathway. Consumption of water and foodstuffs contaminated by the processing is likely lesser, but these are still significant exposure pathways. Although young children suffered the most immediate and severe consequences, results indicate that older children, adult workers, pregnant women, and breastfed infants are also at risk for lead poisoning. Mercury, arsenic, manganese, antimony, and crystalline silica exposures pose additional health threats. Conclusions: Results inform ongoing efforts in Nigeria to assess lead contamination and poisoning, treat victims, mitigate exposures, and remediate contamination. Ore deposit geology, pre-mining weathering, and burgeoning artisanal mining may combine to cause similar lead poisoning disasters elsewhere globally. PMID:23524139

  11. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  12. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  13. Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism – a practical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahrni, Jennifer; Husmann, Marc; Gretener, Silvia B; Keo, Hong H

    2015-01-01

    Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice. PMID:26316770

  14. Quantitative risk assessment of drinking water contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cothern, C.R.; Coniglio, W.A.; Marcus, W.L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of criteria and standards for the regulation of drinking water contaminants involves a variety of processes, one of which is risk estimation. This estimation process, called quantitative risk assessment, involves combining data on the occurrence of the contaminant in drinking water and its toxicity. The human exposure to a contaminant can be estimated from occurrence data. Usually the toxicity or number of health effects per concentration level is estimated from animal bioassay studies using the multistage model. For comparison, other models will be used including the Weibull, probit, logit and quadratic ones. Because exposure and toxicity data are generally incomplete, assumptions need to be made and this generally results in a wide range of certainty in the estimates. This range can be as wide as four to six orders of magnitude in the case of the volatile organic compounds in drinking water and a factor of four to five for estimation of risk due to radionuclides in drinking water. As examples of the differences encountered in risk assessment of drinking water contaminants, discussions are presented on benzene, lead, radon and alachlor. The lifetime population risk estimates for these contaminants are, respectively, in the ranges of: <1 - 3000, <1 - 8000, 2000-40,000 and <1 - 80. 11 references, 1 figure, 1 table

  15. Environmental lead exposure risks associated with children's outdoor playgrounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, Mark Patrick; Camenzuli, Danielle; Kristensen, Louise Jane; Forbes, Miriam; Zahran, Sammy

    2013-01-01

    This study examines exposure risks associated with lead smelter emissions at children's public playgrounds in Port Pirie, South Australia. Lead and other metal values were measured in air, soil, surface dust and on pre- and post-play hand wipes. Playgrounds closest to the smelter were significantly more lead contaminated compared to those further away (t(27.545) = 3.76; p = .001). Port Pirie post-play hand wipes contained significantly higher lead loadings (maximum hand lead value of 49,432 μg/m 2 ) than pre-play hand wipes (t(27) = 3.57, p = .001). A 1% increase in air lead (μg/m 3 ) was related to a 0.713% increase in lead dust on play surfaces (95% CI, 0.253–1.174), and a 0.612% increase in post-play wipe lead (95% CI, 0.257–0.970). Contaminated dust from smelter emissions is determined as the source and cause of childhood lead poisoning at a rate of approximately one child every third day. -- Highlights: •Spatial and temporal variations in lead exposure due to smelter emissions is examined. •Exposure to lead and other metals is evaluated using pre and post-play hand wipe measures. •The relationship of smelter emissions to surface and hand lead exposures is modelled. •A 1% increase in air lead (μg/m 3 ) was related to a 0.713% increase in lead dust on play surfaces. -- Playgrounds in Port Pirie are seriously contaminated by smelter emissions, with levels of surface dust and hand dust that pose a significant risk of harm to human health

  16. Assessing the bioavailability and risk from metal-contaminated ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure to contaminated soil and dust is an important pathway in human health risk assessment. Physical and chemical characteristics, as well as biological factors, determine the bioaccessibility/bioavailability of soil and dust contaminants. Within a single sample, contamination may arise from multiple sources of toxic elements that may exist as different forms (species) which impact bioavailability. In turn, the bioaccessibility/bioavailability of soil and dust contaminants has a direct impact on human health risk assessment and risk management practices. Novel research efforts focusing on development and application of in vitro and in vivo methods to measure the bioaccessibility/bioavailability of metal contaminated soils have advanced in the past few years. The objective of this workshop was to focus on recent developments in assessing the bioaccessibility/bioavailability of arsenic contaminated soils, metal contamination in urban residences in Canada and potential children’s exposures to toxic elements in house dust, a community-based study known as the West Oakland Residential Lead Assessment , studies of the bioavailability of soil cadmium, chromium, nickel and mercury and human exposures to contaminated Brownfield soils. These presentations covered issues related to human health and bioavailability along with the most recent studies on community participation in assessing metal contamination, studies of exposures to residential contamination, and

  17. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  18. Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Borst

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM – Risk Map Germany – Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

  19. Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borst, D.; Jung, D.; Murshed, S. M.; Werner, U.

    2006-09-01

    Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM - Risk Map Germany - Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP) or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats) display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

  20. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  1. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  2. Assessment of risk of potential exposures on facilities industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leocadio, Joao Carlos

    2007-03-01

    This work develops a model to evaluate potential exposures on open facilities of industrial radiography in Brazil. This model will decisively contribute to optimize operational, radiological protection and safety procedures, to prevent radiation accidents and to reduce human errors in industrial radiography. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology was very useful to assess potential exposures. The open facilities of industrial radiography were identified as the scenario to be analyzed in what concerns the evaluation of potential exposures, due to their high accidents indices. The results of the assessment of potential exposures confirm that the industrial radiography in Brazil is a high-risk practice as classified by the IAEA. The risk of potential exposure was estimated to be 40,5 x 10 -2 per year in Brazil, having as main consequences injuries to the workers' hands and arms. In the world scene, the consequences are worst, leading to fatalities of people, thus emphasizing the high risk of industrial radiography. (author)

  3. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  4. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-01-01

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment

  5. Framework for integrating human and animal data in chemical risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavelle, Karlene S; Robert Schnatter, A; Travis, Kim Z; Swaen, Gerard M H; Pallapies, Dirk; Money, Chris; Priem, Peter; Vrijhof, Henk

    2012-03-01

    Although regulatory agencies formally encourage the integration of all available data in chemical risk assessment, consistent implementation of this practice has been constrained by the lack of a clear, systematic method for doing so. In this paper, we describe a methodology for evaluating, classifying and integrating human and animal data into the risk assessment process that incorporates: (1) a balanced appraisal of human and animal data, (2) relevance to different stages of the risk assessment process, and (3) accommodation for different data quality requirements. The proposed framework offers a flexible, step-wise approach for determining which set of available data best support the chemical risk assessment that involves the rating and relative ranking of human and animal data quality. The evaluation of human data incorporates seven data quality elements, nature and specificity of the lead effect; evaluation of animal data incorporates data quality and relevance to humans. Results of simulations with selected chemicals previously evaluated in a formal risk assessment generally agreed with existing regulatory guidance. Application of the proposed framework across a wider range of chemical agents will improve transparency of the risk assessment process and validity of results, while informing continuous refinements to this evolving methodology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... parameters for estimating the risk. The immediate human risk of BADGE and derivatives in topical dosage forms was found to be low. However, local treatment of broken skin may lead to higher exposure of BADGE and derivatives compared to application to normal skin. 3-BC permeated skin at higher flux than 4-MBC...

  7. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  8. Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, Joshua A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foxall, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bachmann, Corinne [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chiaramonte, Laura [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Daley, Thomas M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-01-28

    Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO2 injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO2 injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO2 storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO2-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  10. Enterprise risk management today's leading research and best practices for tomorrow's executives

    CERN Document Server

    Simkins, Betty J

    2010-01-01

    Essential insights on the various aspects of enterprise risk management If you want to understand enterprise risk management from some of the leading academics and practitioners of this exciting new methodology, Enterprise Risk Management is the book for you. Through in–depth insights into what practitioners of this evolving business practice are actually doing as well as anticipating what needs to be taught on the topic, John Fraser and Betty Simkins have sought out the leading experts in this field to clearly explain what enterprise risk management is and how you can teach, learn, and implement these leading practices within the context of your business activities. In this book, the authors take a broad view of ERM, or what is called a holistic approach to ERM. Enterprise Risk Management introduces you to the wide range of concepts and techniques for managing risk in a holistic way that correctly identifies risks and prioritizes the appropriate responses. This invaluable guide offers a broad overview of...

  11. Leaching characteristics, ecotoxicity, and risk assessment based management of mine wastes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J.; Ju, W. J.; Jho, E. H.; Nam, K.; Hong, J. K.

    2016-12-01

    Mine wastes generated during mining activities in metal mines generally contain high concentrations of metals that may impose toxic effects to surrounding environment. Thus, it is necessary to properly assess the mining-impacted landscapes for management. The study investigated leaching characteristics, potential environmental effects, and human health risk of mine wastes from three different metal mines in South Korea (molybdenum mine, lead-zinc mine, and magnetite mine). The heavy metal concentrations in the leachates obtained by using the Korean Standard Test Method for Solid Wastes (STM), Toxicity Characteristics Leaching Procedure (TCLP), and Synthetic Precipitation Leaching Procedure (SPLP) met the Korea Waste Control Act and the USEPA region 3 regulatory levels accordingly, even though the mine wastes contained high concentrations of metals. Assuming that the leachates may get into nearby water sources, the leachate toxicity was tested using Daphnia Magna. The toxic unit (TU) values after 24 h and 48 h exposure of all the mine wastes tested met the Korea Allowable Effluent Water Quality Standards (TUwaste may have long-term toxic effects (TU>1 for the eluent at L/S of 30) implying that the long-term effect of mine wastes left in mining areas need to be assessed. Considering reuse of mine wastes as a way of managing mine wastes, the human health risk assessment of reusing the lead-zinc mine waste in industrial areas was carried out using the bioavailable fraction of the heavy metals contained in the mine wastes, which was determined by using the Solubility/Bioavailability Research Consortium method. There may be potential carcinogenic risk (9.7E-05) and non-carcinogenic risk (HI, Hazard Index of 1.0E+00) as CR≧1.0E-05 has carcinogenic risk and HI≧1.0E+00 has non-carcinogenic risk. Overall, this study shows that not only the concentration-based assessment but ecological toxic effect and human health risk based assessments can be utilized for mining

  12. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  13. Health risk factors in lead polluted environment causing isthemic health disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khnwal, S.; Rahman, K.U.

    2008-01-01

    Faisalabad is third most populous and industrial city, known as Manchester of Pakistan. Most of the people working in the industries of this city are exposed to highly polluted and toxic environment. Lead is a natural metal found in the environment and its contamination exceeds the range of normal limits by human activities causing a lot of health hazardous. An effort is made to assess the association of anemia and cholesterol with the development IHD among industrial workers who are exposed to the lead polluted environment. For this purpose the study was conducted during a period of one year (2006-7) and the respondents were the patients from industrial area coming to the hospitals visiting at DHQ Hospital Faisalabad. Only those patients were selected for this study who were diagnosed with clinical symptoms of lead toxicity. The demographic features of the respondents regarding their age, gender, marital status, family size, education, income, duration on job, working place and nature of work were considered. The data of this study was categorical nature and this measures the association among exposure to the environment with lead toxicity and causative risk factors i.e., cholesterol level, Hb level (anemia) causing ischemic heart disease (IHD) were studied. (author)

  14. Baseline risk assessment for groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site, Gunnison, Colorado

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-11-01

    The Gunnison Baseline Risk Assessment for Groundwater Contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site was performed to determine if long-term use of groundwater from domestic wells near the site has a potential for adverse health effects. The risk assessment was based on the results of sampling domestic wells during 1989--1990. A risk assessment evaluates health risks by comparing the amount of a contaminant taken in by a person with the amount of the contaminant that may be toxic. The Gunnison Risk Assessment used high intake values to estimate the maximum levels a person might be exposed to. The results of the risk assessment are divided into cancer (carcinogenic) risks and non-carcinogenic risks. Five key contaminants were evaluated for adverse health risks: uranium, manganese, lead antimony, and cadmium. Due to the potential health risks and the unavoidable uncertainties associated with limited groundwater and toxicity data, it is prudent public health policy to provide a permanent alternate water supply. Additionally, providing a permanent alternate water supply is cost-effective compared to long-term routine monitoring

  15. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  16. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  17. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  18. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  19. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  20. Geostatistical approach for assessing soil volumes requiring remediation: validation using lead-polluted soils underlying a former smelting works.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demougeot-Renard, Helene; De Fouquet, Chantal

    2004-10-01

    Assessing the volume of soil requiring remediation and the accuracy of this assessment constitutes an essential step in polluted site management. If this remediation volume is not properly assessed, misclassification may lead both to environmental risks (polluted soils may not be remediated) and financial risks (unexpected discovery of polluted soils may generate additional remediation costs). To minimize such risks, this paper proposes a geostatistical methodology based on stochastic simulations that allows the remediation volume and the uncertainty to be assessed using investigation data. The methodology thoroughly reproduces the conditions in which the soils are classified and extracted at the remediation stage. The validity of the approach is tested by applying it on the data collected during the investigation phase of a former lead smelting works and by comparing the results with the volume that has actually been remediated. This real remediated volume was composed of all the remediation units that were classified as polluted after systematic sampling and analysis during clean-up stage. The volume estimated from the 75 samples collected during site investigation slightly overestimates (5.3% relative error) the remediated volume deduced from 212 remediation units. Furthermore, the real volume falls within the range of uncertainty predicted using the proposed methodology.

  1. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  2. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  3. Risk assessment principle for engineered nanotechnology in food and drug.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Myungsil; Lee, Eun Ji; Kweon, Se Young; Park, Mi Sun; Jeong, Ji Yoon; Um, Jun Ho; Kim, Sun Ah; Han, Bum Suk; Lee, Kwang Ho; Yoon, Hae Jung

    2012-06-01

    While the ability to develop nanomaterials and incorporate them into products is advancing rapidly worldwide, understanding of the potential health safety effects of nanomaterials has proceeded at a much slower pace. Since 2008, Korea Food and Drug Administration (KFDA) started an investigation to prepare "Strategic Action Plan" to evaluate safety and nano risk management associated with foods, drugs, medical devices and cosmetics using nano-scale materials. Although there are some studies related to potential risk of nanomaterials, physical-chemical characterization of nanomaterials is not clear yet and these do not offer enough information due to their limitations. Their uncertainties make it impossible to determine whether nanomaterials are actually hazardous to human. According to the above mention, we have some problems to conduct the human exposure risk assessment currently. On the other hand, uncertainty about safety may lead to polarized public debate and to businesses unwillingness for further nanotechnology investigation. Therefore, the criteria and methods to assess possible adverse effects of nanomaterials have been vigorously taken into consideration by many international organizations: the World Health Organization, the Organization for Economic and Commercial Development and the European Commission. The object of this study was to develop risk assessment principles for safety management of future nanoproducts and also to identify areas of research to strengthen risk assessment for nanomaterials. The research roadmaps which were proposed in this study will be helpful to fill up the current gaps in knowledge relevant nano risk assessment.

  4. A framework for widespread replication of a highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dohyeong; Galeano, M Alicia Overstreet; Hull, Andrew; Miranda, Marie Lynn

    2008-12-01

    Preventive approaches to childhood lead poisoning are critical for addressing this longstanding environmental health concern. Moreover, increasing evidence of cognitive effects of blood lead levels system-based childhood lead exposure risk models, especially if executed at highly resolved spatial scales, can help identify children most at risk of lead exposure, as well as prioritize and direct housing and health-protective intervention programs. However, developing highly resolved spatial data requires labor-and time-intensive geocoding and analytical processes. In this study we evaluated the benefit of increased effort spent geocoding in terms of improved performance of lead exposure risk models. We constructed three childhood lead exposure risk models based on established methods but using different levels of geocoded data from blood lead surveillance, county tax assessors, and the 2000 U.S. Census for 18 counties in North Carolina. We used the results to predict lead exposure risk levels mapped at the individual tax parcel unit. The models performed well enough to identify high-risk areas for targeted intervention, even with a relatively low level of effort on geocoding. This study demonstrates the feasibility of widespread replication of highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk models. The models guide resource-constrained local health and housing departments and community-based organizations on how best to expend their efforts in preventing and mitigating lead exposure risk in their communities.

  5. Sudbury soils study : summary of volume 3 : ecological risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-03-15

    The Sudbury soils study was comprised of 3 volumes: (1) a background, study organization and 2001 soils survey; (2) a human health risk assessment; and (3) an ecological risk assessment (ERA). This document provided details of the ERA, which was conducted to characterize the current and future risks of chemicals of concern (COC) to terrestrial and ecosystem components from Sudbury smelter particulate emissions. The extent to which COC are preventing the recovery of regionally representative terrestrial plant communities was investigated. Risks to terrestrial wildlife populations and endangered species and communities were evaluated. Samples of soil, water, sediment, plants, terrestrial invertebrates, and fish tissue were collected. Data were then analyzed by scientists and independent consultants in order to assess the impacts of arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, copper, lead, nickel and selenium. Results of the study indicated that terrestrial plant communities in the region continue to be impacted by COC in the soil, as well as by soil erosion, low nutrient levels, and a lack of soil organic matter. Direct impacts on wildlife populations were also observed. 5 refs., 7 tabs., 21 figs.

  6. Blood Lead Levels and Risk Factors among Preschool Children in a Lead Polluted Area in Taizhou, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenyan Gao

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To determine the blood lead levels and identify related risk factors among preschool children in a lead polluted area (Taizhou, China and provide theoretical support for prevention of lead pollution. Methods. A stratified-clustered-random sampling method was used to determine the survey sample. Blood lead levels were determined by the tungsten atomizer absorption spectrophotometer. Results. A total of 2,018 subjects (average age of 59 months; 1,087 boys and 931 girls were included. The arithmetic mean, geometric mean, and median blood lead levels of the preschool children were 56.4 μg/L, 48.9 μg/L, and 46 μg/L. A total of 8.8% children had blood lead levels >100 μg/L and 43.9% had blood lead levels >50 μg/L. Mother’s education level, father’s occupation, decorative tableware, exposure to makeup, and the residential floor were all risk factors for elevated blood lead levels (odds ratios of 1.42, 1.21, 1.11, 1.19, and 1.27, resp., while hand washing before eating food was a protective factor (odds ratio of 0.88. Conclusions. The blood lead levels of preschool children in Taizhou were higher than in other areas in China and in developed countries. Therefore, policies ensuring lead-based industries are not placed in close proximity to residential areas are required.

  7. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  8. Assessing the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism – a practical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fahrni J

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Jennifer Fahrni,1 Marc Husmann,2 Silvia B Gretener,3 Hong H Keo1 1Division of Angiology, Medical University Clinic, Kantonsspital Aarau AG, Aarau, Switzerland; 2Clinic for Angiology, University Hospital, University of Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland; 3Clinic for Angiology Oberaargau, Langenthal, Switzerland Abstract: Recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This risk is lowered by anticoagulation, with a large effect in the initial phase following the venous thromboembolic event, and with a smaller effect in terms of secondary prevention of recurrence when extended anticoagulation is performed. On the other hand, extended anticoagulation is associated with an increased risk of major bleeding and thus leads to morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk of recurrence for VTE on an individual basis, and a recommendation for secondary prophylaxis should be specifically based on risk calculation of recurrence of VTE and bleeding. In this review, we provide a comprehensive summary of relevant risk factors for recurrent VTE and a practical approach for assessing the risk of recurrence in daily practice. Keywords: thrombosis, hemorrhage, risk assessment 

  9. Comparison of models used for ecological risk assessment and human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryti, R.T.; Gallegos, A.F.

    1994-01-01

    Models are used to derive action levels for site screening, or to estimate potential ecological or human health risks posed by potentially hazardous sites. At the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), which is RCRA-regulated, the human-health screening action levels are based on hazardous constituents described in RCRA Subpart S and RESRAD-derived soil guidelines (based on 10 mRem/year) for radiological constituents. Also, an ecological risk screening model was developed for a former firing site, where the primary constituents include depleted uranium, beryllium and lead. Sites that fail the screening models are evaluated with site-specific human risk assessment (using RESRAD and other approaches) and a detailed ecological effect model (ECOTRAN). ECOTRAN is based on pharmacokinetics transport modeling within a multitrophic-level biological-growth dynamics model. ECOTRAN provides detailed temporal records of contaminant concentrations in biota, and annual averages of these body burdens are compared to equivalent site-specific runs of the RESRAD model. The results show that thoughtful interpretation of the results of these models must be applied before they can be used for evaluation of current risk posed by sites and the benefits of various remedial options. This presentation compares the concentrations of biological media in the RESRAD screening runs to the concentrations in ecological endpoints predicted by the ecological screening model. The assumptions and limitations of these screening models and the decision process where these are screening models are applied are discussed

  10. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  11. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  12. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  13. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  14. Arsenic, lead, mercury and cadmium: Toxicity, levels in breast milk and the risks for breastfed infants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rebelo, Fernanda Maciel; Caldas, Eloisa Dutra

    2016-01-01

    Metals are ubiquitous in nature, being found in all environmental compartments, and have a variety of applications in human activities. Metals are transferred by maternal blood to the fetus via the placenta, and exposure continues throughout life. For the general population, exposure comes mainly from water and food consumption, including breast milk. In this paper, we reviewed studies on the toxicity of arsenic, lead, mercury and cadmium, the toxic metals of most concern to human health, focusing on the potential risks to newborns and infants. A total of 75 studies published since 2000 reporting the levels of these metals in breast milk were reviewed. Lead was the metal most investigated in breast milk (43 studies), and for which the highest levels were reported (up to 1515 µg/L). Arsenic was the least investigated (18 studies), with higher levels reported for breast milk (up to 149 µg/L) collected in regions with high arsenic concentrations in water (>10 µg/L). Data from 34 studies on mercury showed that levels in breast milk were generally higher in populations with high fish consumption, where it may be present mainly as MeHg. Cadmium levels in breast milk were the lowest, with means <2 µg/L in most of the 29 studies reviewed. Results of risk assessments indicated that the intake of arsenic, lead and mercury by infants through breastfeeding can be considered a health concern in most regions of the world. Although the potential risks to infants are mostly outweighed by the benefits of breast milk consumption, it is essential that contaminants be continuously monitored, especially in the most critical regions, and that measures be implemented by health authorities to reduce exposure of newborns and infants to these metals, and thus avoid unnecessary health risks. - Highlights: • Review of 75 studies that analyzed arsenic, lead, mercury and/or cadmium levels. • Higher levels of arsenic found in India; of mercury found in Brazil. • Lead was the most

  15. Arsenic, lead, mercury and cadmium: Toxicity, levels in breast milk and the risks for breastfed infants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rebelo, Fernanda Maciel [Brazilian Health Surveillance Agency, University of Brasilia, 70910-900 Brasilia, DF (Brazil); Caldas, Eloisa Dutra, E-mail: eloisa@unb.br [Laboratory of Toxicology, Department of Pharmacy, University of Brasilia, 70910-900 Brasilia, DF (Brazil)

    2016-11-15

    Metals are ubiquitous in nature, being found in all environmental compartments, and have a variety of applications in human activities. Metals are transferred by maternal blood to the fetus via the placenta, and exposure continues throughout life. For the general population, exposure comes mainly from water and food consumption, including breast milk. In this paper, we reviewed studies on the toxicity of arsenic, lead, mercury and cadmium, the toxic metals of most concern to human health, focusing on the potential risks to newborns and infants. A total of 75 studies published since 2000 reporting the levels of these metals in breast milk were reviewed. Lead was the metal most investigated in breast milk (43 studies), and for which the highest levels were reported (up to 1515 µg/L). Arsenic was the least investigated (18 studies), with higher levels reported for breast milk (up to 149 µg/L) collected in regions with high arsenic concentrations in water (>10 µg/L). Data from 34 studies on mercury showed that levels in breast milk were generally higher in populations with high fish consumption, where it may be present mainly as MeHg. Cadmium levels in breast milk were the lowest, with means <2 µg/L in most of the 29 studies reviewed. Results of risk assessments indicated that the intake of arsenic, lead and mercury by infants through breastfeeding can be considered a health concern in most regions of the world. Although the potential risks to infants are mostly outweighed by the benefits of breast milk consumption, it is essential that contaminants be continuously monitored, especially in the most critical regions, and that measures be implemented by health authorities to reduce exposure of newborns and infants to these metals, and thus avoid unnecessary health risks. - Highlights: • Review of 75 studies that analyzed arsenic, lead, mercury and/or cadmium levels. • Higher levels of arsenic found in India; of mercury found in Brazil. • Lead was the most

  16. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  17. Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

    2017-01-01

    The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

  18. The California Multimedia Risk Assessment Protocol for Alternative Fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatch, T.; Ginn, T. R.; McKone, T. E.; Rice, D. W.

    2013-12-01

    Any new fuel in California requires approval by the state agencies overseeing human and environmental health. In order to provide a systematic evaluation of new fuel impacts, California now requires a multimedia risk assessment (MMRA) for fuel approval. The fuel MMRA involves all relevant state agencies including: the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), the Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment (OEHHA), and the Department of Toxic Substances Control (DTSC) overseen by the California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA). The lead agency for MMRAs is the CARB. The original law requiring a multimedia assessment is California Health and Safety Code 43830.8. In addition, the low carbon fuel standard (LCFS), the Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), and the Verified Diesel Emission Control Strategy (VDECS) have provisions that can require a multimedia assessment. In this presentation, I give an overview of the California multimedia risk assessment (MMRA) for new fuels that has been recently developed and applied to several alternative fuels. The objective of the California MMRA is to assess risk of potential impacts of new fuels to multiple environmental media including: air, water, and soil. Attainment of this objective involves many challenges, including varying levels of uncertainty, relative comparison of incommensurate risk factors, and differing levels of priority assigned to risk factors. The MMRA is based on a strategy of relative risk assessment and flexible accommodation of distinct and diverse fuel formulations. The approach is tiered by design, in order to allow for sequentially more sophisticated investigations as knowledge gaps are identified and re-prioritized by the ongoing research. The assessment also involves peer review in order to provide coupling between risk assessment and stakeholder investment, as well as constructive or confrontational feedback. The multimedia assessment

  19. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  20. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  1. Environmental health risk assessment of ambient lead levels in Lisbon, Portugal: A full chain study approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casimiro, E.; Philippe Ciffroy, P.; Serpa, P.

    2011-01-01

    to calculate the Pb levels in the various body systems. Our results showed a low health risk from Pb exposures. It also identified that ingestion of leafy vegetables (i.e. lettuce, cabbage, and spinach) and fruits contribute the most to total Pb blood levels. This full chain assessment approach of the 2FUN...

  2. Leading internal and external sources of credit risk in the top South African banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tankiso Moloi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed at identifying the leading credit risk indicators in the South African banking context as well as the development of an integrated leading credit risk indicator model. A content analysis was used as a data extraction methodology and structural equation modelling was used as a data analysis methodology. The results obtained indicated that utilising the structural equation modelling, gross savings, and prime overdraft rates, number of judgements, business insolvencies and unemployment rates were formulated as leading economic and market (external indicators of credit risk in the South African banking context. Similarly, utilising the principal component analysis, bank asset quality, bank asset concentration as well as bank trading and hedging activities were formulated as leading bank specific (internal indicators of credit risk in the South African banking context. The Integrated Leading Credit Risk Indicator Model (ICRIM was formulated utilising the accepted leading credit risk indicators. The ICRIM parameters were benchmarked against the generally accepted fit indices such as the RMSEA, comparative fit (baseline comparison as well as the Hoelter and its results output were found to be consistent with these generally accepted fit indices

  3. Safety assessment of nuclear medicine practice using the Risk Matrix Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz, Dumenigo; Cruz, Yoanis; Soler, Karen; Guerrero, Mayka

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the main results from the application of the methodology of Risk Matrices in a hypothetical service / department of the Nuclear medicine that realize metabolic radiotherapy treatment and diagnostic studies with 131 I and 99 m Tc and 18 F. We could identify major equipment failures and human errors that could potentially lead to a accident in practice. For each analyzed initiating events evaluated the frequency of occurrence, identified key existing defenses to avoid the accident and assessed the potential consequences of an accident if this comes to fruition. With this methodology we could identify which accident sequences increased risk and to propose means to reduce the risk in such cases. As a result of this work was developed the 'RMA Nuclear Medicine' computer tools that will apply this methodology in nuclear medicine services that need to do similar risk assessments

  4. Current methods in risk assessment of genotoxic chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartus, Alexander; Schrenk, Dieter

    2017-08-01

    Chemical contaminants and residues are undesired chemicals occurring in consumer products such as food and drugs, at the workplace and in the environment, i.e. in air, soil and water. These compounds can be detected even at very low concentrations and lead frequently to considerable concerns among consumers and in the media. Thus it is a major challenge for modern toxicology to provide transparent and versatile tools for the risk assessment of such compounds in particular with respect to human health. Well-known examples of toxic contaminants are dioxins or mercury (in the environment), mycotoxins (from infections by molds) or acrylamide (from thermal treatment of food). The process of toxicological risk assessment of such chemicals is based on i) the knowledge of their contents in food, air, water etc., ii) the routes and extent of exposure of humans, iii) the toxicological properties of the compound, and, iv) its mode(s) of action. In this process quantitative dose-response relationships, usually in experimental animals, are of outstanding importance. For a successful risk assessment, in particular of genotoxic chemicals, several conditions and models such as the Margin of Exposure (MoE) approach or the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) concept exist, which will be discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  6. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  7. Ordinary risks and accepted fictions: how contrasting and competing priorities work in risk assessment and mental health care planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffey, Michael; Cohen, Rachel; Faulkner, Alison; Hannigan, Ben; Simpson, Alan; Barlow, Sally

    2017-06-01

    Communication and information sharing are considered crucial to recovery-focused mental health services. Effective mental health care planning and coordination includes assessment and management of risk and safety. Using data from our cross-national mixed-method study of care planning and coordination, we examined what patients, family members and workers say about risk assessment and management and explored the contents of care plans. Thematic analysis of qualitative research interviews (n = 117) with patients, family members and workers, across four English and two Welsh National Health Service sites. Care plans were reviewed (n = 33) using a structured template. Participants have contrasting priorities in relation to risk. Patients see benefit in discussions about risk, but cast the process as a worker priority that may lead to loss of liberty. Relationships with workers are key to family members and patients; however, worker claims of involving people in the care planning process do not extend to risk assessment and management procedures for fear of causing upset. Workers locate risk as coming from the person rather than social or environmental factors, are risk averse and appear to prioritize the procedural aspects of assessment. Despite limitations, risk assessment is treated as legitimate work by professionals. Risk assessment practice operates as a type of fiction in which poor predictive ability and fear of consequences are accepted in the interests of normative certainty by all parties. As a consequence, risk adverse options are encouraged by workers and patients steered away from opportunities for ordinary risks thereby hindering the mobilization of their strengths and abilities. © 2016 The Authors. Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  9. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  10. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  11. A probabilistic risk assessment of Oconee Unit 3. Executive highlights 60

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-04-01

    In 1980 the Nuclear Safety Analysis Center and Duke Power Co. joined in a project to provide the utility industry with a practical, useful example of the application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods. PRA is a structured analysis technique that accounts for all the failure possibilities that might conceivably lead to core damage. The technique uses probabilities as discriminators to determine which are most significant. The following were project objectives: to provide the host utility with an analytic model of the plant that describes and estimates the likelihood of failure combinations that could lead to core melt; to evaluate the risks to the plant and to the public; to improve utility capabilities in PRA methods and applications

  12. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  13. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  14. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  15. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  16. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  17. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  18. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  19. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  20. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  1. Blood Lead Levels and Risk Factors for Lead Exposure in a Pediatric Population in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Havens

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Although lead recycling activities are a known risk factor for elevated blood levels in South East Asia, little is known regarding the prevalence of and risk factors for elevated blood lead levels (BLL among the general pediatric population in Vietnam. This study is a cross-sectional evaluation of 311 children from Children’s Hospital #2 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Capillary blood lead testing was performed using the LeadCare II. Mean BLLs were 4.97 μg/dL (Standard Deviation (SD 5.50, with 7% of the participants having levels greater than 10 μg/dL. Living in Bing Duong province (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.4–5.6.1 or the Dong Nai province (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0–5.1 and having an age greater than 12 months (OR 6.0, 95% CI 3.1–11.8 were associated with higher BLLs. The prevalence of elevated BLLs in Vietnam is consistent with other SE Asian countries. Mean BLLs in Ho Chi Minh City are markedly less than those seen in a separate study of children living near lead recycling activities. Additional evaluation is necessary to better detail potential risk factors if screening is to be implemented within Vietnam.

  2. Team based risk assessment in the South African mining industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turner, J.; Ashworth, G.; Webger, S.; Protheroe, B. [CSIR, Auckland Park (South Africa). MineRisk Africa Division

    1996-12-31

    Improved health and safety for the large mining workforce in South Africa is a priority. Risk Assessments will be mandatory following the promulgation of the new health and safety act, due out in mid 1996. There is also a strong demand for employee organizations for participation in regulating the work process, particularly in the aspects of health and safety. The concept of system safety is that safe production is achieved through four ingredients, being, competent and trained personnel working according to appropriate standard operating practices using fit-for-purpose equipment in a well-controlled environment. A deficiency in any one of these areas will lead to an increased chance of operating problems and consequently accidents. The Mine Risk processes for risk assessment and management provide a mechanism for adopting this concept in practical mining operations; they provide a framework for identifying the root cause of safety problems as a basis for defining changes which will contribute significantly towards improving safety. The Mine Risk processes are applied practively and systematically to identify hazards and evaluate the magnitude of the associated risk in a defined aspect of the mining operation using a participative team based approach. The team, whose membership consists of highly experienced personnel drawn from all relevant departments and from positions ranging from manager to operator, then determines practical controls to reduce priority risks to acceptable levels. Team building is a natural product of this process, and should lead to higher productivity levels which is also a cause for concern. By using this process, a number of objectives of all the stakeholders in the South African Mining industry are addressed. 3 tabs.

  3. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  4. Design and implementation of a risk assessment module in a spatial decision support system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kaixi; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

    2014-05-01

    The spatial decision support system named 'Changes SDSS' is currently under development. The goal of this system is to analyze changing hydro-meteorological hazards and the effect of risk reduction alternatives to support decision makers in choosing the best alternatives. The risk assessment module within the system is to assess the current risk, analyze the risk after implementations of risk reduction alternatives, and analyze the risk in different future years when considering scenarios such as climate change, land use change and population growth. The objective of this work is to present the detailed design and implementation plan of the risk assessment module. The main challenges faced consist of how to shift the risk assessment from traditional desktop software to an open source web-based platform, the availability of input data and the inclusion of uncertainties in the risk analysis. The risk assessment module is developed using Ext JS library for the implementation of user interface on the client side, using Python for scripting, as well as PostGIS spatial functions for complex computations on the server side. The comprehensive consideration of the underlying uncertainties in input data can lead to a better quantification of risk assessment and a more reliable Changes SDSS, since the outputs of risk assessment module are the basis for decision making module within the system. The implementation of this module will contribute to the development of open source web-based modules for multi-hazard risk assessment in the future. This work is part of the "CHANGES SDSS" project, funded by the European Community's 7th Framework Program.

  5. Methods of assessment and management of enterprise risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Kiseleva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the actual topic of our time – the management of business risks. An integral part of professional risk management is to identify the nature of the object of management in the sphere of economy. Since the domestic theory of risk management is under development, the problem of a clear comprehensive definition of risk becomes now of particular relevance. The article discusses the basic concepts of risk management; studied its components in the business activities; reflected system and risk management principles; The basic types of risks in business. A organizational and economic mechanism of enterprise risk assessment. Practical advice on risk management. Entrepreneurship without risk does not exist. With the development of market economy the specific entrepreneur determines the methods that will work, and they all lead to entrepreneurial risks. The level of threats on the market today, above the level of potential profits. It is concluded that it is impossible to increase revenue without increasing the risk or reduce risk without reducing income. The lower range of the probability distribution of expected returns relative to its mean value, the lower the risk associated with this operation. Avoid risk in business is almost impossible, but you can reduce this risk. And it depends on how professionally and correctly operates the entrepreneur, what kind of strategy he will choose to reduce the appearance of risk.

  6. A Novel Dynamic Algorithm for IT Outsourcing Risk Assessment Based on Transaction Cost Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guodong Cong

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the great risk exposed in IT outsourcing, how to assess IT outsourcing risk becomes a critical issue. However, most of approaches to date need to further adapt to the particular complexity of IT outsourcing risk for either falling short in subjective bias, inaccuracy, or efficiency. This paper proposes a dynamic algorithm of risk assessment. It initially forwards extended three layers (risk factors, risks, and risk consequences of transferring mechanism based on transaction cost theory (TCT as the framework of risk analysis, which bridges the interconnection of components in three layers with preset transferring probability and impact. Then, it establishes an equation group between risk factors and risk consequences, which assures the “attribution” more precisely to track the specific sources that lead to certain loss. Namely, in each phase of the outsourcing lifecycle, both the likelihood and the loss of each risk factor and those of each risk are acquired through solving equation group with real data of risk consequences collected. In this “reverse” way, risk assessment becomes a responsive and interactive process with real data instead of subjective estimation, which improves the accuracy and alleviates bias in risk assessment. The numerical case proves the effectiveness of the algorithm compared with the approach forwarded by other references.

  7. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  8. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  9. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  10. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  11. Unknown risk: co-exposure to lead and other heavy metals among children living in small-scale mining communities in Zamfara State, Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartrem, Casey; Tirima, Simba; von Lindern, Ian; von Braun, Margrit; Worrell, Mary Claire; Mohammad Anka, Shehu; Abdullahi, Aishat; Moller, Gregory

    2014-08-01

    The lead poisoning crisis in Zamfara State, Northern Nigeria has been called the worst such case in modern history and it presents unique challenges for risk assessment and management of co-exposure to multiple heavy metals. More than 400 children have died in Zamfara as a result of ongoing lead intoxication since early in 2010. A review of the common toxic endpoints of the major heavy metals advances analysis of co-exposures and their common pathologies. Environmental contamination in Bagega village, examined by X-ray fluorescence of soils, includes lead, mercury, cadmium, arsenic and manganese. Co-exposure risk is explored by scoring common toxic endpoints and hazard indices to calculate a common pathology hazard risk ranking of Pb > As > Hg > Cd > Mn. Zamfara presents an extreme picture of both lead and multiple heavy metal mortality and morbidity, but similar situations have become increasingly prevalent worldwide.

  12. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  13. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment of abalone Haliotis diversicolor supertexta exposed to waterborne zinc

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Chungmin; Ling Minpei

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes a risk assessment approach that integrates predicted tissue concentrations of zinc (Zn) with a concentration-response relationship and leads to predictions of survival risk for pond abalone Haliotis diversicolor supertexta as well as to the uncertainties associated with these predictions. The models implemented include a probabilistic bioaccumulation model, which linking biokinetic and consumer-resource models, accounts for Zn exposure profile and a modified Hill model for reconstructing a dose-response profile for abalone exposed to waterborne Zn. The growth risk is assessed by hazard quotients characterized by measured water level and chronic no-observed effect concentration. Our risk analyses for H. diversicolor supertexta reared near Toucheng, Kouhu, and Anping, respectively, in north, central, and south Taiwan region indicate a relatively low likelihood that survival is being affected by waterborne Zn. Expected risks of mortality for abalone were estimated as 0.46 (Toucheng), 0.36 (Kouhu), and 0.29 (Anping). The predicted 90th-percentiles of hazard quotient for potential growth risk were estimated as 1.94 (Toucheng), 0.47 (Kouhu), and 0.51 (Anping). These findings indicate that waterborne Zn exposure poses no significant risk to pond abalone in Kouhu and Anping, yet a relative high growth risk in Toucheng is alarming. Because of a scarcity of toxicity and exposure data, the probabilistic risk assessment was based on very conservative assumptions. - A novel risk assessment method was developed for abalone

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment of abalone Haliotis diversicolor supertexta exposed to waterborne zinc

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liao Chungmin; Ling Minpei

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes a risk assessment approach that integrates predicted tissue concentrations of zinc (Zn) with a concentration-response relationship and leads to predictions of survival risk for pond abalone Haliotis diversicolor supertexta as well as to the uncertainties associated with these predictions. The models implemented include a probabilistic bioaccumulation model, which linking biokinetic and consumer-resource models, accounts for Zn exposure profile and a modified Hill model for reconstructing a dose-response profile for abalone exposed to waterborne Zn. The growth risk is assessed by hazard quotients characterized by measured water level and chronic no-observed effect concentration. Our risk analyses for H. diversicolor supertexta reared near Toucheng, Kouhu, and Anping, respectively, in north, central, and south Taiwan region indicate a relatively low likelihood that survival is being affected by waterborne Zn. Expected risks of mortality for abalone were estimated as 0.46 (Toucheng), 0.36 (Kouhu), and 0.29 (Anping). The predicted 90th-percentiles of hazard quotient for potential growth risk were estimated as 1.94 (Toucheng), 0.47 (Kouhu), and 0.51 (Anping). These findings indicate that waterborne Zn exposure poses no significant risk to pond abalone in Kouhu and Anping, yet a relative high growth risk in Toucheng is alarming. Because of a scarcity of toxicity and exposure data, the probabilistic risk assessment was based on very conservative assumptions. - A novel risk assessment method was developed for abalone.

  16. 76 FR 44586 - Notice of Availability of the External Review Draft of the Microbial Risk Assessment Guideline...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-26

    ... assessments will foster better interaction among participating agencies leading to a more efficient and... document addresses the full range of microbial risk assessment topics: Definition of the roles and...

  17. Critical elements for human health risk assessment of less than lifetime exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geraets, Liesbeth; Nijkamp, Monique M; Ter Burg, Wouter

    2016-11-01

    Less than lifetime exposure has confronted risk assessors as to how to interpret the risks for human health in case a chronic health-based limit is exceeded. Intermittent, fluctuating and peak exposures do not match with the basis of the chronic limit values possibly leading to conservative outcomes. This paper presents guidance on how to deal with human risk assessment of less than lifetime exposure. Important steps to be considered are characterization of the human exposure situation, evaluation whether the human less than lifetime exposure scenario corresponds to a non-chronic internal exposure: toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic considerations, and, finally, re-evaluation of the risk assessment. Critical elements for these steps are the mode of action, Haber's rule, and toxicokinetics (ADME) amongst others. Previous work for the endpoints non-genotoxic carcinogenicity and developmental toxicity is included in the guidance. The guidance provides a way to consider the critical elements, without setting default factors to correct for the less than lifetime exposure in risk assessment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Probabilistic and deterministic risk assessment for extreme objects and ecologically hazardous systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. V. Veryuzhsky

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper include mostly the results of works of the Research Institute for Mechanics of Quickproceeding Processes united in a general research direction - creation of the methodology for risk assessment and risk management for ecologically hazardous systems, consisting of the set of different technological analyzed objects. The elements of system can be characterized by high level of radiation, toxic, explosion, fire and other hazards. The probalistic and deterministic approach for risk assessment, based on mathematical methods of system analysis, non-liner dynamics and computer simulation, has been developed. Branching in problem definition, as well as diversity of factor and criteria for determination of system status, is also taken into account. The risks caused by both objective and subjective factors (including human factor are examined. In many performed studies, the leading structural element, dominating in determination of the system safety, is the structural part of an object. The methodology is implemented for the safety analysis (risk assessment for Chernobyl NPP Shelton Object and other industrial buildings

  19. Lead remediation and changes in human lead exposure: some physiological and biokinetic dimensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mushak, Paul

    2003-02-15

    This paper presents a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the various aspects of lead remediation effectiveness with particular reference to human health risk assessment. One of the key elements of lead remediation efforts at such sites as those under the Superfund program deals with populations at elevated exposure and toxicity risk in the proximity of, or at, the site of remediation, especially remediation workers, workers at other tasks on sites that were remediated down to some action level of lead concentration in soils, and groups at risk in nearby communities. A second element has to do with how one measures or models lead exposure changes with special reference to baseline and post-remediation conditions. Various biomarkers of lead exposure can be employed, but their use requires detailed knowledge of what results using each means. The most commonly used approach is measurement of blood lead (Pb-B). Recognized limitations in the use of Pb-B has led to the use of predictive Pb exposure models, which are less vulnerable to the many behavioral, physiological, and environmental parameters that can distort isolated or 'single shot' Pb-B testings. A third aspect covered in this paper presents various physiological factors that affect the methods by which one evaluates Pb remediation effectiveness. Finally, this article offers an integrated look at how lead remediation actions directed at one lead source or pathway affect the total lead exposure picture for human populations at elevated lead exposure and toxicity risk.

  20. 76 FR 38650 - Draft Integrated Science Assessment for Lead

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-01

    ... Science Assessment for Lead AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency. ACTION: Notice of extension of public... Lead'' (EPA/600/R-10/075A). The original Federal Register notice announcing the public comment period... review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for Lead. DATES: The public comment period...

  1. Annual Report: National Risk Assessment Partnership (30 September 2012)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bromhal, Grant [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States); Guthrie, George [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States)

    2012-09-30

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is conducting research to advance the science and engineering knowledge base for technologies that will accelerate the business case for CO2 capture and storage, including prediction and quantification of risks that may relate to potential liabilities. As part of this effort, NETL, through its Office of Research and Development (ORD), is leading a multi-laboratory effort that leverages broad technical capabilities across the DOE complex: the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP involves five DOE national laboratories: NETL, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). This team is working together to develop a science-based method for quantifying the likelihood of risks (and associated potential liabilities) for CO2 storage sites. NRAP is an effort that harnesses the breadth of capabilities across the DOE National Laboratory (NL) system into a mission-focused platform that will develop the integrated science base that can be applied to risk assessment for long-term storage of CO2.

  2. Assessment of health risks from exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beebe, G.W.

    1982-01-01

    Rapid development in the assessment of health risks from exposure to ionizing radiation has produced an impressive array of risk differentials of presumed biologic significance. In the human data these differentials involve: (1) the variety of cancer, especially its size; (2) host factors, especially age; (3) time following exposure; (4) magnitude of dose; and (5) type of radiation. From experimental work we may presume that dose-rate also plays a role, especially for sparsely ionizing radiation. Current research is extending the scope of differentials with respect to these and other variables, including cell type and concomitant environmental risk factors, and testing dose-response models suggested by experimental and theoretical work. As facts to be explained, differentials in risk may lead to hypotheses to be explored experimentally and improve our understanding of how ionizing radiation causes cancer. 74 references

  3. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  4. Health Risk Assessment of Harmful Chemicals: Case Study in a Petrochemical Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Motovagheh

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims In the most chemical process industries, workers are exposed to various chemicals and working with these chemicals without considering safety and health considerations can lead to different harmful symptoms. For deciding about control measures and reducing risk to acceptable level , it is necessary to assess the health risk of exposing to harmful chemicals by aid of specific risk assessment techniques in the process industries. The purpose of this study was to assess the health risks arising from the exposures to chemicals in a petrochemical industry.  methods A simple and applied method was used for health risk assessment of chemicals in a petrochemical industry. Firstly job tasks and work process were determined and then different chemicals in each tasks identified and risk ranking was calculated in each job task by aid of hazard and exposure rate.   Results The result showed that workers are exposed to 10 chemicals including Methyl ethyl ketone, Epichlorohydrin, Sulfuric acid, Phenol, Chlorobenzene, Toluene, Isopropanol, Methylene chloride, Chlorideric Acid and Acetone during their work in plant. From these chemicals, the highest risk level was for Epichlorohydrin in the jobs of tank and utility operations and maintenance workers. The next high risk level was for Epichlorohydrin in technical inspecting and Methyl ethyl ketone in Tank and utility operations operator.     Conclusion Hazard information and monitoring data of chemical agents in the chemical industries can be used for assessing health risks from exposures to chemicals and ranking jobs by their risk level. These data can be used for resource allocation for control measures and reducing risk level to acceptable level.    

  5. [Health Risk Assessment of Drinking Water Quality in Tianjin Based on GIS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Gang; Zeng, Qiang; Zhao, Liang; Zhang, Yue; Feng, Bao-jia; Wang, Rui; Zhang, Lei; Wang, Yang; Hou, Chang-chun

    2015-12-01

    This study intends to assess the potential health hazards of drinking water quality and explore the application of geographic information system( GIS) in drinking water safety in Tianjin. Eight hundred and fifty water samples from 401 sampling points in Tianjin were measured according to the national drinking water standards. The risk assessment was conducted using the environmental health risk assessment model recommended by US EAP, and GIS was combined to explore the information visualization and risk factors simultaneously. The results showed that the health risks of carcinogens, non-carcinogens were 3.83 x 10⁻⁵, 5.62 x 10⁻⁹ and 3.83 x 10⁻⁵ for total health risk respectively. The rank of health risk was carcinogen > non-carcinogen. The rank of carcinogens health risk was urban > new area > rural area, chromium (VI) > cadmium > arsenic > trichlormethane > carbon tetrachloride. The rank of non-carcinogens health risk was rural area > new area > urban, fluoride > cyanide > lead > nitrate. The total health risk level of drinking water in Tianjin was lower than that of ICRP recommended level (5.0 x 10⁻⁵), while was between US EPA recommended level (1.0 x 10⁻⁴-1.0 x 10⁻⁶). It was at an acceptable level and would not cause obvious health hazards. The main health risks of drinking water came from carcinogens. More attentions should be paid to chromium (VI) for carcinogens and fluoride for non-carcinogens. GIS can accomplish information visualization of drinking water risk assessment and further explore of risk factors.

  6. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-13

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  7. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-01

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  8. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference between

  9. Comparison of concepts in easy-to-use methods for MSD risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman-Liu, Danuta

    2014-05-01

    This article presents a comparative analysis of easy-to-use methods for assessing musculoskeletal load and the risk for developing musculoskeletal disorders. In all such methods, assessment of load consists in defining input data, the procedure and the system of assessment. This article shows what assessment steps the methods have in common; it also shows how those methods differ in each step. In addition, the methods are grouped according to their characteristic features. The conclusion is that the concepts of assessing risk in different methods can be used to develop solutions leading to a comprehensive method appropriate for all work tasks and all parts of the body. However, studies are necessary to verify the accepted premises and to introduce some standardization that would make consolidation possible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  11. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  12. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  13. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. J. Bos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  14. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  15. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  16. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  17. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  18. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  19. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  20. Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Rianne; Meesters, Johannes A J; Ter Braak, Cajo J F; van de Meent, Dik; van der Voet, Hilko

    2016-12-01

    There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To deal with uncertainty in the risk assessment effectively, probabilistic methods are advantageous. In the present study, the authors developed a method to model both the variability and the uncertainty in environmental risk assessment of ENPs. This method is based on the concentration ratio and the ratio of the exposure concentration to the critical effect concentration, both considered to be random. In this method, variability and uncertainty are modeled separately so as to allow the user to see which part of the total variation in the concentration ratio is attributable to uncertainty and which part is attributable to variability. The authors illustrate the use of the method with a simplified aquatic risk assessment of nano-titanium dioxide. The authors' method allows a more transparent risk assessment and can also direct further environmental and toxicological research to the areas in which it is most needed. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2958-2967. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

  1. Risk assessment of N-nitrosodimethylamine formed endogenously after fish-with-vegetable meals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeilmaker, M.J.; Bakker, M.I.; Schothorst, R.; Slob, W.

    2010-01-01

    The consumption of fish and nitrate-rich vegetables may lead to the formation of the genotoxic carcinogen N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) in the stomach. To assess human cancer risk associated with this formation, a dynamic in vitro gastrointestinal model was used to simulate NDMA formation in the

  2. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  3. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  4. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  5. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  6. "Incorporating epigenetic data into the risk assessment process for the toxic metals arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, and mercury: strategies and challenges."

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul eRay

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Exposure to toxic metals poses a serious human health hazard based on ubiquitous environmental presence, the extent of exposure, and the toxicity and disease states associated with exposure. This global health issue warrants accurate and reliable models derived from the risk assessment process to predict disease risk in populations. There has been considerable interest recently in the impact of environmental toxicants such as toxic metals on the epigenome. Epigenetic modifications are somatically inherited alterations to an individual’s genome without a change in the DNA sequence, and include, but are not limited to, three commonly studied alterations: DNA methylation, histone modification, and non-coding RNA expression. Given the role of epigenetic alterations in regulating gene and thus protein expression, there is the potential for the integration of toxic metal-induced epigenetic alterations as informative factors in the risk assessment process. In the present review, epigenetic alterations induced by five high priority toxic metals/metalloids are prioritized for analysis and their possible inclusion into the risk assessment process is discussed.

  7. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  8. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  9. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  10. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  11. Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha; Parisi, Carlo; Prescott, Steven R.; Gupta, Abhinav

    2016-01-01

    Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

  12. Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bolisetti, Chandu [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Veeraraghavan, Swetha [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven R. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Gupta, Abhinav [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

  13. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  15. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  16. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  17. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  18. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  19. Analytic concepts for assessing risk as applied to human space flight

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1997-01-01

    Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles provide an effective framework for quantifying individual elements of risk, including the risk to astronauts and spacecraft of the radiation environment of space flight. The concept of QRA is based on a structured set of scenarios that could lead to different damage states initiated by either hardware failure, human error, or external events. In the context of a spacecraft risk assessment, radiation may be considered as an external event and analyzed in the same basic way as any other contributor to risk. It is possible to turn up the microscope on any particular contributor to risk and ask more detailed questions than might be necessary to simply assess safety. The methods of QRA allow for as much fine structure in the analysis as is desired. For the purpose of developing a basis for comprehensive risk management and considering the tendency to open-quotes fear anything nuclear,close quotes radiation risk is a prime candidate for examination beyond that necessary to answer the basic question of risk. Thus, rather than considering only the customary damage states of fatalities or loss of a spacecraft, it is suggested that the full range of damage be analyzed to quantify radiation risk. Radiation dose levels in the form of a risk curve accomplish such a result. If the risk curve is the complementary cumulative distribution function, then it answers the extended question of what is the likelihood of receiving a specific dose of radiation or greater. Such results can be converted to specific health effects as desired. Knowing the full range of the radiation risk of a space mission and the contributors to that risk provides the information necessary to take risk management actions [operational, design, scheduling of missions around solar particle events (SPE), etc.] that clearly control radiation exposure

  20. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  1. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  2. The MCRA model for probabilistic single-compound and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Voet, Hilko; de Boer, Waldo J; Kruisselbrink, Johannes W; Goedhart, Paul W; van der Heijden, Gerie W A M; Kennedy, Marc C; Boon, Polly E; van Klaveren, Jacob D

    2015-05-01

    Pesticide risk assessment is hampered by worst-case assumptions leading to overly pessimistic assessments. On the other hand, cumulative health effects of similar pesticides are often not taken into account. This paper describes models and a web-based software system developed in the European research project ACROPOLIS. The models are appropriate for both acute and chronic exposure assessments of single compounds and of multiple compounds in cumulative assessment groups. The software system MCRA (Monte Carlo Risk Assessment) is available for stakeholders in pesticide risk assessment at mcra.rivm.nl. We describe the MCRA implementation of the methods as advised in the 2012 EFSA Guidance on probabilistic modelling, as well as more refined methods developed in the ACROPOLIS project. The emphasis is on cumulative assessments. Two approaches, sample-based and compound-based, are contrasted. It is shown that additional data on agricultural use of pesticides may give more realistic risk assessments. Examples are given of model and software validation of acute and chronic assessments, using both simulated data and comparisons against the previous release of MCRA and against the standard software DEEM-FCID used by the Environmental Protection Agency in the USA. It is shown that the EFSA Guidance pessimistic model may not always give an appropriate modelling of exposure. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  4. An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åström, Helena Lisa Alexandra; Friis Hansen, P.; Garrè, Luca

    2014-01-01

    Urban flooding introduces significant risk to society. Non-stationarity leads to increased uncertainty and this is challenging to include in actual decision-making. The primary objective of this study was to develop a risk assessment and decision support framework for pluvial urban flood risk under...... non-stationary conditions using an influence diagram (ID) which is a Bayesian network (BN) extended with decision and utility nodes. Non-stationarity is considered to be the influence of climate change where extreme precipitation patterns change over time. The overall risk is quantified in monetary...... terms expressed as expected annual damage. The network is dynamic in as much as it assesses risk at different points in time. The framework provides means for decision-makers to assess how different decisions on flood adaptation affect the risk now and in the future. The result from the ID was extended...

  5. Assessment of Child Lead Exposure in a Philadelphia Community, 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dignam, Timothy; Pomales, Ana; Werner, Lora; Newbern, E Claire; Hodge, James; Nielsen, Jay; Grober, Aaron; Scruton, Karen; Young, Rand; Kelly, Jack; Brown, Mary Jean

    2018-01-10

    Several urban neighborhoods in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, have a history of soil, household lead paint, and potential lead-emitting industry contamination. To (1) describe blood lead levels (BLLs) in target neighborhoods, (2) identify risk factors and sources of lead exposure, (3) describe household environmental lead levels, and (4) compare results with existing data. A simple, random, cross-sectional sampling strategy was used to enroll children 8 years or younger living in selected Philadelphia neighborhoods with a history of lead-emitting industry during July 2014. Geometric mean of child BLLs and prevalence of BLLs of 5 μg/dL or more were calculated. Linear and logistic regression analyses were used to ascertain risk factors for elevated BLLs. Among 104 children tested for blood lead, 13 (12.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.5-20.2) had BLLs of 5 μg/dL or more. The geometric mean BLL was 2.0 μg/dL (95% CI, 1.7-2.3 μg/dL). Higher geometric mean BLLs were significantly associated with front door entryway dust lead content, residence built prior to 1900, and a child currently or ever receiving Medicaid. Seventy-one percent of households exceeded the screening level for soil, 25% had an elevated front door floor dust lead level, 28% had an elevated child play area floor dust lead level, and 14% had an elevated interior window dust lead level. Children in households with 2 to 3 elevated environmental lead samples were more likely to have BLLs of 5 μg/dL or more. A spatial relationship between household proximity to historic lead-emitting facilities and child BLL was not identified. Entryway floor dust lead levels were strongly associated with blood lead levels in participants. Results underscore the importance to make housing lead safe by addressing all lead hazards in and around the home. Reduction of child lead exposure is crucial, and continued blood lead surveillance, testing, and inspection of homes of children with BLLs of 5 μg/dL or more to identify

  6. Management of acute paracetamol (acetaminophen) toxicity: a standardised proforma improves risk assessment and overall risk stratification by emergency medicine doctors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McQuade, David J; Aknuri, Srikanth; Dargan, Paul I; Wood, David M

    2012-12-01

    Paracetamol (acetaminophen) poisoning is the most common toxicological presentation in the UK. Doctors managing patients with paracetamol poisoning need to assess the risk of their patient developing hepatotoxicity before determining appropriate treatment. Patients deemed to be at 'high risk' of hepatotoxicity have lower treatment thresholds than those deemed to be at 'normal risk'. Errors in this process can lead to harmful or potentially fatal under or over treatment. To determine how well treating doctors assess risk factor status and whether a standardised proforma is useful in the risk stratification process. Retrospective 12-month case note review of all patients presenting with paracetamol poisoning to our large inner-city emergency department. Data were collected on the documentation of risk factors, the presence of a local hospital proforma and treatment outcomes. 249 presentations were analysed and only 59 (23.7%) had full documentation of all the risk factors required to make a complete risk assessment. 56 of the 59 (94.9%) had the local hospital proforma included in the notes; the remaining 3 (5.1%) had full documentation of risk factors despite the absence of a proforma. A local hospital proforma was more likely to be included in the emergency department notes in those with 'adequate documentation' (78 out of 120 (65%)) than for those with 'inadequate documentation' (16 out of 129 (12.4%)); X(2), pparacetamol poisoning.

  7. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  8. Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger [Galson Sciences Ltd (United Kingdom)

    2002-09-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference

  9. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  10. Recent case studies and advancements in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1985-01-01

    During the period from 1977 to 1984, Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc., had the lead in preparing several full scope probabilistic risk assessments for electric utilities. Five of those studies are discussed from the point of view of advancements and lessons learned. The objective and trend of these studies is toward utilization of the risk models by the plant owners as risk management tools. Advancements that have been made are in presentation ad documentation of the PRAs, generation of more understandable plant level information, and improvements in methodology to facilitate technology transfer. Specific areas of advancement are in the treatment of such issues as dependent failures, human interaction, and the uncertainty in the source term. Lessons learned cover a wide spectrum and include the importance of plant specific models for meaningful risk management, the role of external events in risk, the sensitivity of contributors to choice of risk index, and the very important finding that the public risk is extremely small. The future direction of PRA is to establish less dependence on experts for in-plant application. Computerizing the PRAs such that they can be accessed on line and interactively is the key

  11. 76 FR 58509 - Release of Risk and Exposure Assessment Planning Document for the Review of the National Ambient...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-21

    ... Assessment Planning Document for the Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Lead AGENCY... available for public review the Review of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for Lead: Risk and... and/or welfare effects in this review of the national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for lead...

  12. The 12-lead electrocardiogram and risk of sudden death: current utility and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, Kumar; Chugh, Sumeet S

    2015-10-01

    More than 100 years after it was first invented, the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) continues to occupy an important place in the diagnostic armamentarium of the practicing clinician. With the recognition of relatively rare but important clinical entities such as Wolff-Parkinson-White and the long QT syndrome, this clinical tool was firmly established as a test for assessing risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). However, over the past two decades the role of the ECG in risk prediction for common forms of SCD, for example in patients with coronary artery disease, has been the focus of considerable investigation. Especially in light of the limitations of current risk stratification approaches, there is a renewed focus on this broadly available and relatively inexpensive test. Various abnormalities of depolarization and repolarization on the ECG have been linked to SCD risk; however, more focused work is needed before they can be deployed in the clinical arena. The present review summarizes the current knowledge on various ECG risk markers for prediction of SCD and discusses some future directions in this field. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Relationship between dose and risk, and assessment of carcinogenic risks associated with low doses of ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tubiana, M.; Aurengo, A.

    2005-01-01

    This report raises doubts on the validity of using LNT (linear no-threshold) relationship for evaluating the carcinogenic risk of low doses (< 100 mSv) and even more for very low doses (< 10 mSv). The LNT concept can be a useful pragmatic tool for assessing rules in radioprotection for doses above 10 mSv; however since it is not based on biological concepts of our current knowledge, it should not be used without precaution for assessing by extrapolation the risks associated with low and even more so, with very low doses (< 10 mSv), especially for benefit-risk assessments imposed on radiologists by the European directive 97-43. The biological mechanisms are different for doses lower than a few dozen mSv and for higher doses. The eventual risks in the dose range of radiological examinations (0.1 to 5 mSv, up to 20 mSv for some examinations) must be estimated taking into account radiobiological and experimental data. An empirical relationship which has been just validated for doses higher than 200 mSv may lead to an overestimation of risks (associated with doses one hundred fold lower), and this overestimation could discourage patients from undergoing useful examinations and introduce a bias in radioprotection measures against very low doses (< 10 mSv). Decision makers confronted with problems of radioactive waste or risk of contamination, should re-examine the methodology used for the evaluation of risks associated with very low doses and with doses delivered at a very low dose rate. This report confirms the inappropriateness of the collective dose concept to evaluate population irradiation risks

  14. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  15. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  16. Risk Assessment in the 21st Century - Conference Abstract ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional approach is no longer sufficient. This presentation provides an update on current progress in achieving the goals outlined in the NAS reports: “Toxicology Testing in the 21st Century”, “Exposure Science in the 21st Century”, and most recently, “Using 21st Century Science to Improve Risk-Related Evaluations.” The presentation highlights many of the advances lead by the EPA. Topics covered include the evolution of the mode of action concept into the chemically agnostic, adverse outcome pathway (AOP), a systems-based data framework that facilitates integration of modifiable factors (e.g., genetic variation, life stages), and an understanding of networks, and mixtures. Further, the EDSP pivot is used to illustrate how AOPs drive development of predictive models for risk assessment based on assembly of high throughput assays representing AOP key elements. The birth of computational exposure science, capable of large-scale predictive exposure models, is reviewed. Although still in its infancy, development of non-targeted analysis to begin addressing the exposome is presented, as is the systems-based AEP that integrates exposure, toxicokinetics and AOPs into a comprehensive framework

  17. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  18. Assessing social and economic effects of perceived risk: Workshop summary: Draft: BWIP Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nealey, S.M.; Liebow, E.B.

    1988-03-01

    The US Department of Energy sponsored a one-day workshop to discuss the complex dimensions of risk judgment formation and the assessment of social and economic effects of risk perceptions related to the permanent underground storage of highly radioactive waste from commercial nuclear power plants. Affected parties have publicly expressed concerns about potentially significant risk-related effects of this approach to waste management. A selective review of relevant literature in psychology, decision analysis, economics, sociology, and anthropology was completed, along with an examination of decision analysis techniques that might assist in developing suitable responses to public risk-related concerns. The workshop was organized as a forum in which a set of distinguished experts could exchange ideas and observations about the problems of characterizing the effects of risk judgments. Out of the exchange emerged the issues or themes of problems with probabilistic risk assessment techniques are evident; differences exist in the way experts and laypersons view risk, and this leads to higher levels of public concern than experts feel are justified; experts, risk managers, and decision-makers sometimes err in assessing risk and in dealing with the public; credibility and trust are important contributing factors in the formation of risk judgments; social and economic consequences of perceived risk should be properly anticipated; improvements can be made in informing the public about risk; the role of the public in risk assessment, risk management and decisions about risk should be reconsidered; and mitigation and compensation are central to resolving conflicts arising from divergent risk judgments. 1 tab

  19. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  20. Risk Assessment in the 21st Century | Science Inventory | US ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response assessment. Originally sound and effective, with increasing dependence on chemical tools and the number of chemicals in commerce, this traditional approach is no longer adequate. This presentation provides an update on current progress in achieving the goals outlined in the NAS report on Toxicology Testing in the 21st Century, highlighting many of the advances lead by the EPA. Topics covered include the evolution of the mode of action framework into a chemically agnostic, adverse outcome pathway (AOP), a systems-based data framework that facilitates integration of modifiable factors (e.g., genetic variation, life stages), and an understanding of networks, and mixtures. Further, the EDSP pivot is used to illustrate how AOPs drive development of predictive models for risk assessment based on assembly of high throughput assays representing AOP key elements. The birth of computational exposure science, capable of large-scale predictive exposure models, is reviewed. Although still in its infancy, development of non-targeted analysis to begin addressing exposome also is presented. Finally, the systems-based AEP is described that integrates exposure, toxicokinetics and AOPs into a comprehensive framework. For the past ~50 years, risk assessment depended almost exclusively on animal testing for hazard identification and dose-response as

  1. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  2. Ergonomics Risk Assessment among support staff in Universiti Malaysia Pahang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jusoh, Faisal; Nafis Osman Zahid, Muhammed

    2018-03-01

    Awareness of ergonomic risk assessment among workers are getting intense in many industries nowadays. It is essential since most of the workers spend 7 to 8 hours of their time in the workplaces. Previous study shown that spending too much time with static posture in sitting at workplace leads to the problem of Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs). The implications are not only harmful to human body but also effect the productivity. Currently, there are no scientific study conducted to assess the conditions of workers in Universiti Malaysia Pahang (UMP). Therefore, the problem of MSDs could not be justified clearly and the top management did not acknowledge this issue. This study aims to present current scenario of ergonomic risk level at UMP by using structured model. It focuses on operational staff from faculties and Human Resources Department (HRD). Initially, three types of assessments are executed based on general working condition, Cornell Muscokeletal Discomfort Questionnaire (CMDQ) and Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA). Based on the findings, 90% of the respondents felt discomfort at workplace but prefer to rectify the issues by themselves. Almost 50% of them evaluated themselves in level 4-5 of discomfort level. The CMDQ result shown the discomfort area at faculties and HRD. The workplace at faculties and HRD had been assessed through ROSA and the overall result shown the risk level is medium level respectively. Therefore, further investigation is requires and improvement of workplace need to be proposed to establish good working condition.

  3. Helicobacter pylori-Induced Chronic Gastritis and Assessing Risks for Gastric Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo Carrasco

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic gastritis is an inflammation of the gastric mucosa and has multiple etiologies. Here we discuss the pathological alterations induced by Helicobacter pylori (HP leading to chronic gastritis and the epigenetic bases underlying these changes. We review the histology of the normal gastric mucosa and overview the role of HP in the multistep cascade of GC. We attempt to define the role of the Operative Link for Gastritis Assessment (OLGA staging system in assessing the risk of GC. The epigenetic bases of chronic gastritis, mainly DNA methylation, are presented through examples such as (i the methylation of the promoter region of E-cadherin in HP-induced chronic gastritis and its reversion after HP eradication and (ii the association of methylation of the promoter region of Reprimo, a p53-mediated cell cycle arrest gene, with aggressive HP strains in high risk areas for GC. In addition, we discuss the finding of RPRM as a circulating cell-free DNA, offering the opportunity for noninvasive risk assessment of GC. Finally, the integration of OLGA and tissue biomarkers, by systems pathology approach, suggests that severe atrophy has a greater risk for GC development if, in addition, overexpressed p73. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01774266.

  4. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  5. Diagnostic Accuracy of Fall Risk Assessment Tools in People With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, Patricia S.; Mahnken, Jonathan D.; Kluding, Patricia M.

    2012-01-01

    Background Diabetic peripheral neuropathy affects nearly half of individuals with diabetes and leads to increased fall risk. Evidence addressing fall risk assessment for these individuals is lacking. Objective The purpose of this study was to identify which of 4 functional mobility fall risk assessment tools best discriminates, in people with diabetic peripheral neuropathy, between recurrent “fallers” and those who are not recurrent fallers. Design A cross-sectional study was conducted. Setting The study was conducted in a medical research university setting. Participants The participants were a convenience sample of 36 individuals between 40 and 65 years of age with diabetic peripheral neuropathy. Measurements Fall history was assessed retrospectively and was the criterion standard. Fall risk was assessed using the Functional Reach Test, the Timed “Up & Go” Test, the Berg Balance Scale, and the Dynamic Gait Index. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and overall diagnostic accuracy were calculated for each fall risk assessment tool. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to estimate modified cutoff scores for each fall risk assessment tool; indexes then were recalculated. Results Ten of the 36 participants were classified as recurrent fallers. When traditional cutoff scores were used, the Dynamic Gait Index and Functional Reach Test demonstrated the highest sensitivity at only 30%; the Dynamic Gait Index also demonstrated the highest overall diagnostic accuracy. When modified cutoff scores were used, all tools demonstrated improved sensitivity (80% or 90%). Overall diagnostic accuracy improved for all tests except the Functional Reach Test; the Timed “Up & Go” Test demonstrated the highest diagnostic accuracy at 88.9%. Limitations The small sample size and retrospective fall history assessment were limitations of the study. Conclusions Modified cutoff scores improved diagnostic accuracy for 3 of 4 fall risk

  6. Defining the Process of a Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Program: Lessons Learnt From Cardiac Assessment of Elite Soccer Players in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speers, Christopher; Seth, Ajai Narain; Patel, Kiran Chhaganbhai; Rakhit, Dhrubo Jyoti; Gillett, Mark James

    2017-12-14

    Retrospectively analyze the cardiac assessment process for elite soccer players, and provide team physicians with a systematic guide to managing longitudinal cardiac risk. Descriptive Epidemiology Study. Cardiac assessments incorporating clinical examination, 12-lead ECG, echocardiography, and health questionnaire. Soccer players at 5 professional clubs in England, the United Kingdom. Data was retrospectively collected, inspected, and analyzed to determine their clinical management and subsequent follow-up. Over 2 years, 265 soccer players, aged 13 to 37 years with 66% of white European ethnicity, were included in the cohort. Eleven percent had "not-normal" assessments, of these assessments, 83% were considered gray screens, falling into three broad categories: structural cardiac features (including valvular abnormalities), functional cardiac features, and electrocardiogram changes. After cardiology consultation, all assessments were grouped into low, enhanced and high-risk categories for ongoing longitudinal risk management. Overall clear-cut pathology was identified in 2%. Cardiovascular assessment is a vital tool in identifying athletes at risk of sudden cardiac death to mitigate their risk through surveillance, intervention, or participation restriction. The decision whether a player is fit to play or not requires a robust risk assessment followed by input from a multidisciplinary team that includes both the team physician and cardiologist. This educational article proposes a clinical management pathway to aid clinicians with this process. Sudden cardiac death is the important medical cause of death during exercise. The team physician should assume responsibility for the management of the longitudinal risk of their players' cardiac assessments in conjunction with sports cardiologist.

  7. [Application of the data from China Total Diet Study to assess the distribution of lead exposure in different age-gender population groups].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaowei; Liu, Qing; Liu, Liping; Wu, Yongning

    2012-05-01

    To assess the distribution of dietary lead exposure in different age-gender groups of Chinese residents by using the data from China Total Diet Study, and combining the new risk assessment and the PTWI withdrawn by JECFA. Methods Combining the lead concentrations of dietary samples with the food consumption data from China Total Diet Study in 2007 to obtain the distribution of dietary intake and dietary source of lead in different age-gender population groups. Dietary lead exposure of different age-gender population groups in China was in the range of 48.7 -116.7 microg/d. The status of higher lead exposure in younger age groups was not optimistic, as the mean and median margins of exposure (MOE) have been less than 1.0 (0.1 - 0.3). The main sources of dietary lead were cereals and vegetables, which covering 57% of total lead exposure. Lowering the dietary lead exposure of Chinese residents is necessary, especially of infants and children.

  8. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2001-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

  9. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  10. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  11. A root cause analysis approach to risk assessment of a pipeline network for Kuwait Oil Company

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, Ray J.; Alfano, Tony D. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Waheed, Farrukh [Kuwait Oil Company, Ahmadi (Kuwait); Komulainen, Tiina [Kongsberg Oil and Gas Technologies, Sandvika (Norway)

    2009-07-01

    A large scale risk assessment was performed by Det Norske Veritas (DNV) for the entire Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) pipeline network. This risk assessment was unique in that it incorporated the assessment of all major sources of process related risk faced by KOC and included root cause management system related risks in addition to technical risks related to more immediate causes. The assessment was conducted across the entire pipeline network with the scope divided into three major categories:1. Integrity Management 2. Operations 3. Management Systems Aspects of integrity management were ranked and prioritized using a custom algorithm based on critical data sets. A detailed quantitative risk assessment was then used to further evaluate those issues deemed unacceptable, and finally a cost benefit analysis approach was used to compare and select improvement options. The operations assessment involved computer modeling of the entire pipeline network to assess for bottlenecks, surge and erosion analysis, and to identify opportunities within the network that could potentially lead to increased production. The management system assessment was performed by conducting a gap analysis on the existing system and by prioritizing those improvement actions that best aligned with KOC's strategic goals for pipelines. Using a broad and three-pronged approach to their overall risk assessment, KOC achieved a thorough, root cause analysis-based understanding of risks to their system as well as a detailed list of recommended remediation measures that were merged into a 5-year improvement plan. (author)

  12. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  13. WHO's health risk assessment of extremely low frequency electric fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Repacholi, M.H.

    2003-01-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO), the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), WHOs scientific collaborating centres (including the UKs National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) and over 50 participating Member States are participants of WHOs International EMF Project. As part of WHOs health risk assessment process for extremely low frequency fields (ELFs), this workshop was convened by NRPB to assist WHO in evaluating potential health impacts of electrical currents and fields induced by ELF in molecules, cells, tissues and organs of the body. This paper describes the process by which WHO will conduct its health risk assessment. WHO is also trying to provide information on why exposure to ELF magnetic fields seems to be associated with an increased incidence of childhood leukaemia. Are there mechanisms that could lead to this health outcome or does the epidemiological evidence incorporate biases or other factors that need to be further explored? (author)

  14. Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Demonstration Project Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratories (INL) has an ongoing research and development (R&D) project to remove excess conservatism from seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) calculations. These risk calculations should focus on providing best estimate results, and associated insights, for evaluation and decision-making. This report presents a plan for improving our current traditional SPRA process using a seismic event recorded at a nuclear power plant site, with known outcomes, to improve the decision making process. SPRAs are intended to provide best estimates of the various combinations of structural and equipment failures that can lead to a seismic induced core damage event. However, in general this approach has been conservative, and potentially masks other important events (for instance, it was not the seismic motions that caused the Fukushima core melt events, but the tsunami ingress into the facility).

  15. Improving risk assessment of violence among military veterans: an evidence-based approach for clinical decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elbogen, Eric B; Fuller, Sara; Johnson, Sally C; Brooks, Stephanie; Kinneer, Patricia; Calhoun, Patrick S; Beckham, Jean C

    2010-08-01

    Increased media attention to post-deployment violence highlights the need to develop effective models to guide risk assessment among military Veterans. Ideally, a method would help identify which Veterans are most at risk for violence so that it can be determined what could be done to prevent violent behavior. This article suggests how empirical approaches to risk assessment used successfully in civilian populations can be applied to Veterans. A review was conducted of the scientific literature on Veteran populations regarding factors related to interpersonal violence generally and to domestic violence specifically. A checklist was then generated of empirically-supported risk factors for clinicians to consider in practice. To conceptualize how these known risk factors relate to a Veteran's violence potential, risk assessment scholarship was utilized to develop an evidence-based method to guide mental health professionals. The goals of this approach are to integrate science into practice, overcome logistical barriers, and permit more effective assessment, monitoring, and management of violence risk for clinicians working with Veterans, both in Department of Veteran Affairs settings and in the broader community. Research is needed to test the predictive validity of risk assessment models. Ultimately, the use of a systematic, empirical framework could lead to improved clinical decision-making in the area of risk assessment and potentially help prevent violence among Veterans. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  17. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  18. A method of quantitative risk assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Young-Do; Ahn, Bum Jong

    2005-01-01

    Regulatory authorities in many countries are moving away from prescriptive approaches for keeping natural gas pipelines safe. As an alternative, risk management based on a quantitative assessment is being considered to improve the level of safety. This paper focuses on the development of a simplified method for the quantitative risk assessment for natural gas pipelines and introduces parameters of fatal length and cumulative fatal length. The fatal length is defined as the integrated fatality along the pipeline associated with hypothetical accidents. The cumulative fatal length is defined as the section of pipeline in which an accident leads to N or more fatalities. These parameters can be estimated easily by using the information of pipeline geometry and population density of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To demonstrate the proposed method, individual and societal risks for a sample pipeline have been estimated from the historical data of European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group and BG Transco. With currently acceptable criteria taken into account for individual risk, the minimum proximity of the pipeline to occupied buildings is approximately proportional to the square root of the operating pressure of the pipeline. The proposed method of quantitative risk assessment may be useful for risk management during the planning and building stages of a new pipeline, and modification of a buried pipeline

  19. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  20. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  1. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  2. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  3. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  4. Coordinating ecological risk assessment with natural resource damage assessment: A panel discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Brenda; Ammann, Mike; Hoff, Rebecca; Huston, Mark; Jenkins, Kenneth; Palagyi, Tony; Pelto, Karen; Rettig, Todd; Wagner, Anne

    2016-10-01

    Contaminated sites in the United States undergo remediation and restoration through regulatory programs that lead the 2 processes through independent but often parallel pathways with different objectives. The objective of remediation is to reduce risk to human health and the environment, whereas that of restoration is to restore injured resources and compensate the public for lost use of the services that natural resources provide. More complex sites, such as those associated with large river systems and urban waterways, have resulted in increasingly larger-scale ecological risk assessments (ERAs) and natural resource damage assessments (NRDAs) that take many years and involve diverse practitioners including scientists, economists, and engineers. Substantial levels of effort are now frequently required, creating a need for more efficient and cost-effective approaches to data collection, analyses, and assessments. Because there are commonalities in the data needs between ERAs and NRDAs, coordination of the design and implementation of site-specific studies that meet the needs of both programs could result in increased efficiency and lower costs. The Association for Environmental Health and Sciences Foundation convened a panel of environmental practitioners from industry, consulting, and regulatory bodies to examine the benefits and challenges associated with coordinating ERA and NRDA activities in the context of a broad range of regulatory programs. This brief communication presents the opinions and conclusions of the panelists on these issues and reports 2 case studies for which coordinated ERA and NRDA activities produced a positive outcome. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:616-621. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

  5. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  6. Coronary artery disease risk assessment from unstructured electronic health records using text mining.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonnagaddala, Jitendra; Liaw, Siaw-Teng; Ray, Pradeep; Kumar, Manish; Chang, Nai-Wen; Dai, Hong-Jie

    2015-12-01

    Coronary artery disease (CAD) often leads to myocardial infarction, which may be fatal. Risk factors can be used to predict CAD, which may subsequently lead to prevention or early intervention. Patient data such as co-morbidities, medication history, social history and family history are required to determine the risk factors for a disease. However, risk factor data are usually embedded in unstructured clinical narratives if the data is not collected specifically for risk assessment purposes. Clinical text mining can be used to extract data related to risk factors from unstructured clinical notes. This study presents methods to extract Framingham risk factors from unstructured electronic health records using clinical text mining and to calculate 10-year coronary artery disease risk scores in a cohort of diabetic patients. We developed a rule-based system to extract risk factors: age, gender, total cholesterol, HDL-C, blood pressure, diabetes history and smoking history. The results showed that the output from the text mining system was reliable, but there was a significant amount of missing data to calculate the Framingham risk score. A systematic approach for understanding missing data was followed by implementation of imputation strategies. An analysis of the 10-year Framingham risk scores for coronary artery disease in this cohort has shown that the majority of the diabetic patients are at moderate risk of CAD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Workplace Violence: Practical Considerations for Mental Health Professionals in Consultation, Assessment, and Management of Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saragoza, Philip; White, Stephen G

    2016-12-01

    Workplace predatory violence has been the focus of increased study over the past 30 years, leading to a more sophisticated understanding of the factors that contribute to it, and important considerations for its assessment and management. Risk assessment professionals involved in workplace violence consultations should be mindful of issues specific to the workplace context and the principles of threat assessment to provide a more precise opinion of risk, to inform and enhance critical decisions regarding the employment status of the individual of concern, security measures, possible treatment options, and other management responses, while being mindful of the employee's certain rights. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  9. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  10. Assessment of the risk of transporting uranium hexafluoride by truck and train

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.; Johnson, J.F.; Davis, D.K.; Friley, J.R.; Ross, B.A.

    1978-08-01

    This report is the fifth in a series of studies of the risk of transporting potentially hazardous energy materials. The report presents an assessment of the risk of shipping uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) by truck and rail. The general risk assessment methodology, summarized in Section 3, used in this study is that developed for the first study in this series. The assessment includes the risks from release of uranium hexafluoride during truck or rail transport due to transportation accidents. The contribution to the risk of deteriorated or faulty packaging during normal transport was also considered. The report is sectioned to correspond to the specific analysis steps of the risk assessment model. The transportation system and accident environment are described in Sections 4 and 5. Calculation of the response of the shipping system to forces produced in transportation accidents are presented in Section 6 and the results of a survey to determine the condition of the package during transport are presented in Section 7. Sequences of events that could lead to a release of radioactive material from the shipping cask during transportation are postulated in Section 8 using fault tree analysis. These release sequences are evaluated in Sections 9 through 11, to determine both the likelihood and the possible consequences of each release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The results of the risk assessment have been related to the year 1985, when it is projected that 100 GW of electric power will be generated annually by nuclear power plants. It was estimated that approximately 46,000 metric tons (MT) of natural UF 6 and 14,600 MT of enriched UF 6 would be shipped in the reference year

  11. An Entropy Approach to Disclosure Risk Assessment: Lessons from Real Applications and Simulated Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Airoldi, Edoardo M.; Bai, Xue; Malin, Bradley A.

    2011-01-01

    We live in an increasingly mobile world, which leads to the duplication of information across domains. Though organizations attempt to obscure the identities of their constituents when sharing information for worthwhile purposes, such as basic research, the uncoordinated nature of such environment can lead to privacy vulnerabilities. For instance, disparate healthcare providers can collect information on the same patient. Federal policy requires that such providers share “de-identified” sensitive data, such as biomedical (e.g., clinical and genomic) records. But at the same time, such providers can share identified information, devoid of sensitive biomedical data, for administrative functions. On a provider-by-provider basis, the biomedical and identified records appear unrelated, however, links can be established when multiple providers’ databases are studied jointly. The problem, known as trail disclosure, is a generalized phenomenon and occurs because an individual’s location access pattern can be matched across the shared databases. Due to technical and legal constraints, it is often difficult to coordinate between providers and thus it is critical to assess the disclosure risk in distributed environments, so that we can develop techniques to mitigate such risks. Research on privacy protection has so far focused on developing technologies to suppress or encrypt identifiers associated with sensitive information. There is growing body of work on the formal assessment of the disclosure risk of database entries in publicly shared databases, but a less attention has been paid to the distributed setting. In this research, we review the trail disclosure problem in several domains with known vulnerabilities and show that disclosure risk is influenced by the distribution of how people visit service providers. Based on empirical evidence, we propose an entropy metric for assessing such risk in shared databases prior to their release. This metric assesses risk by

  12. Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, Hiromitsu

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

  13. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  14. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  15. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  16. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  17. Assessment of lead contamination of farmlands in Abare village ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR ADO YUSUF

    Key words: Heavy metals, lead, Zamfara, health risk, soil contamination. ... Similarly, the. Zamfara State Ministry of Environment and Solid Minerals .... The average concentrations of Cd, Pb and Zn were 17.5, ... was found on the interaction between sampling distance .... stalk) are essential components of livestock feed espe-.

  18. Improving the relevance and efficiency of human exposure assessments within the process of regulatory risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Money, Chris

    2018-01-24

    The process for undertaking exposure assessments varies dependent on its purpose. But for exposure assessments to be relevant and accurate, they are reliant on access to reliable information on key exposure determinants. Acquiring such information is seldom straightforward and can take significant time and resources. This articles examines how the application of tiered and targeted approaches to information acquisition, within the context of European human health risk assessments, can not only lead to improvements in the efficiency and effectiveness of the process but also in the confidence of stakeholders in its outputs. The article explores how the benefits might be further improved through the coordination of such activities, as well as those areas that represent barriers to wider international harmonisation.

  19. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  20. Path analysis of risk factors leading to premature birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fields, S J; Livshits, G; Sirotta, L; Merlob, P

    1996-01-01

    The present study tested whether various sociodemographic, anthropometric, behavioral, and medical/physiological factors act in a direct or indirect manner on the risk of prematurity using path analysis on a sample of Israeli births. The path model shows that medical complications, primarily toxemia, chorioammionitis, and a previous low birth weight delivery directly and significantly act on the risk of prematurity as do low maternal pregnancy weight gain and ethnicity. Other medical complications, including chronic hypertension, preclampsia, and placental abruption, although significantly correlated with prematurity, act indirectly on prematurity through toxemia. The model further shows that the commonly accepted sociodemographic, anthropometric, and behavioral risk factors act by modifying the development of medical complications that lead to prematurity as opposed to having a direct effect on premature delivery. © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc. Copyright © 1996 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  1. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  2. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  3. A quantitative assessment of risks of heavy metal residues in laundered shop towels and their use by workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Kevin; Magee, Brian

    2014-10-01

    This paper presents a risk assessment of exposure to metal residues in laundered shop towels by workers. The concentrations of 27 metals measured in a synthetic sweat leachate were used to estimate the releasable quantity of metals which could be transferred to workers' skin. Worker exposure was evaluated quantitatively with an exposure model that focused on towel-to-hand transfer and subsequent hand-to-food or -mouth transfers. The exposure model was based on conservative, but reasonable assumptions regarding towel use and default exposure factor values from the published literature or regulatory guidance. Transfer coefficients were derived from studies representative of the exposures to towel users. Contact frequencies were based on assumed high-end use of shop towels, but constrained by a theoretical maximum dermal loading. The risk estimates for workers developed for all metals were below applicable regulatory risk benchmarks. The risk assessment for lead utilized the Adult Lead Model and concluded that predicted lead intakes do not constitute a significant health hazard based on potential worker exposures. Uncertainties are discussed in relation to the overall confidence in the exposure estimates developed for each exposure pathway and the likelihood that the exposure model is under- or overestimating worker exposures and risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu, E-mail: liyuxx8@hotmail.com

    2013-10-15

    Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.

  5. A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Yan; Wen, Jing-ya; Li, Xiao-li; Wang, Da-zhou; Li, Yu

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Using interval mathematics to describe spatial and temporal variability and parameter uncertainty. • Using fuzzy theory to quantify variability of environmental guideline values. • Using probabilistic approach to integrate interval concentrations and fuzzy environmental guideline. • Establishment of dynamic multimedia environmental integrated risk assessment framework. -- Abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including “residential land” and “industrial land” environmental guidelines under “strict” and “loose” strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management

  6. Comparative risk assessment for electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thoene, E.; Kallenbach, U.

    1988-01-01

    The following conclusions are drawn: There is no 'zero-risk option' in electricity generation. Risk comparison meets with considerable problems relating to available data and methods. Taking into account the existing uncertainties, technology ranking in terms of risks involved cannot be done, but the major risk elements of the various electricity generating systems can be clearly identified. The risks defined cannot be interpreted so as to lead to an abolishment of certain techniques due to risks involved, particularly if one sees the risks from electricity generation in relation to other health hazards. The use of coal for electricity generation clearly ranks top with regard to occupational risks and hazards to public health. (orig./HP) [de

  7. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  8. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  9. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  10. Inter-system LOCA risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Kelly, D.L.; Schroeder, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    Inter-systems loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been included in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) since WASH-1400. While estimated as being relatively low contributors to core damage frequency, ISLOCAs have been identified as major contributors to risk at nuclear power plants (NPPs). They have the potential to result in core melt and containment bypass, which may lead to the early release of large quantities of fission products. Recent events at several operating reactors have been identified as ISLOCA precursors. The occurrence of these events have raised concerns that the frequency of ISLOCA sequences might be underestimated in current state-of-the-art PRAs. In order to expand the current state-of-the-art, a Nuclear Regulatory Commission research program is being conducted by ED and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The objective of the ISLOCA research program is to generate qualitative and quantitative information on the hardware, human factors, and accident consequence issues that dominate nuclear power plant risks for ISLOCA. To meet this objective, the approach being taken includes analysis of all interfaces between the primary reactor coolant system and other, lower pressure systems. This historical experience (primarily, licensee event reports) has provided the basis for determining the scope of the analysis with respect to potential failure mechanisms of the pressure isolation boundary. It is important to note that in the vast majority of these events, the dominant failure was a human error. Because of their significance, human errors are given particular attention in the present analysis

  11. Economic assessment of wild bird mortality induced by the use of lead gunshot in European wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreotti, Alessandro; Guberti, Vittorio; Nardelli, Riccardo; Pirrello, Simone; Serra, Lorenzo; Volponi, Stefano; Green, Rhys E

    2018-01-01

    In European wetlands, at least 40 bird species are exposed to the risk of lead poisoning caused by ingestion of spent lead gunshot. Adopting a methodology developed in North America, we estimated that about 700,000 individuals of 16 waterbird species die annually in the European Union (EU) (6.1% of the wintering population) and one million in whole Europe (7.0%) due to acute effects of lead poisoning. Furthermore, threefold more birds suffer sub-lethal effects. We assessed the economic loss due to this lead-induced mortality of these 16 species by calculating the costs of replacing lethally poisoned wild birds by releasing captive-bred ones. We assessed the cost of buying captive-bred waterbirds for release from market surveys and calculated how many captive-bred birds would have to be released to compensate for the loss, taking into account the high mortality rate of captive birds (72.7%) in the months following release into the wild. Following this approach, the annual cost of waterbird mortality induced by lead shot ingestion is estimated at 105 million euros per year in the EU countries and 142 million euros in the whole of Europe. An alternative method, based upon lost opportunities for hunting caused by deaths due to lead poisoning, gave similar results of 129 million euros per year in the EU countries and 185 million euros per year in the whole of Europe. For several reasons these figures should be regarded as conservative. Inclusion of deaths of species for which there were insufficient data and delayed deaths caused indirectly by lead poisoning and effects on reproduction would probably increase the estimated losses substantially. Nevertheless, our results suggest that the benefits of a restriction on the use of lead gunshot over wetlands could exceed the cost of adapting to non-lead ammunition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Inherent health and environmental risk assessment of nanostructured metal oxide production processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torabifard, Mina; Arjmandi, Reza; Rashidi, Alimorad; Nouri, Jafar; Mohammadfam, Iraj

    2018-01-10

    The health and environmental effects of chemical processes can be assessed during the initial stage of their production. In this paper, the Chemical Screening Tool for Exposure and Environmental Release (ChemSTEER) software was used to compare the health and environmental risks of spray pyrolysis and wet chemical techniques for the fabrication of nanostructured metal oxide on a semi-industrial scale with a capacity of 300 kg/day in Iran. The pollution sources identified in each production process were pairwise compared in Expert Choice software using indicators including respiratory damage, skin damage, and environmental damages including air, water, and soil pollution. The synthesis of nanostructured zinc oxide using the wet chemical technique (with 0.523 wt%) leads to lower health and environmental risks compared to when spray pyrolysis is used (with 0.477 wt%). The health and environmental risk assessment of nanomaterial production processes can help select safer processes, modify the operation conditions, and select or modify raw materials that can help eliminate the risks.

  13. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  14. [Methodological and operational notes for the assessment and management of the risk of work-related stress].

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Ambrogi, Francesco; Ratti, Elisabetta Ceppi

    2011-01-01

    Today the Italian national debate over the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology is rather heated. Several methodological proposals and guidelines have been published in recent months, not least those by the "Commissione Consultiva". But despite this wide range of proposals, it appears that there is still a lack of attention to some of the basic methodological issues that must be taken into account in order to correctly implement the above-mentioned guidelines. The aim of this paper is to outline these methodological issues. In order to achieve this, the most authoritative methodological proposals and guidelines have been reviewed. The study focuses in particular on the methodological issues that could lead to important biases if not considered properly. The study leads to some considerations about the methodological validity of a Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment based exclusively on the literal interpretation of the considered proposals. Furthermore, the study provides some hints and working hypotheses on how to overcome these methodological limits. This study should be considered as a starting point for further investigations and debate on the Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment methodology on a national level.

  15. Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

  16. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  17. Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.

    1976-04-01

    The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

  18. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  19. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  20. Incorporating biomarkers in ecological risk assessment of chemical contaminants of soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Reinecke

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Soil is an important but complex natural resource which is increasingly used as sink for chemicals. The monitoring of soil quality and the assessment of risks posed by contaminants have become crucial. This study deals with the potential use of biomarkers in the monitoring of soils and the assessment of risk resulting from contamination. Apart from an overview of the existing literature on biomarkers, the results of various of our field experiments in South African soils are discussed. Biomarkers may have potential in the assessment of risk because they can indicate at an early stage that exposure has taken place and that a toxic response has been initiated. It is therefore expected that early biomarkers will play an increasing role as diagnostic tools for determining exposure to chemicals and the resulting effects. They may have predictive value that can assist in the prevention or minimising of risks. The aim of this study was to investigate the possibilities of using our results on biomarker responses of soil dwelling organisms to predict changes at higher organisational levels (which may have ecological implications. Our recent experimental results on the evaluation of various biomarkers in both the laboratory and the field are interpreted and placed in perspective within the broader framework of response biology. The aim was further to contribute to the development and application of biomarkers in regulatory risk assessment schemes of soils. This critical review of our own and recent literature on biomarkers in ecotoxicology leads to the conclusion that biomarkers can, under certain conditions, be useful tools in risk assessment. Clear relationships between contamination loads in soil organisms and certain biomarker responses were determined in woodlice, earthworms and terrestrial snails. Clear correlations were also established in field experiments between biomarker responses and changes at the population level. This indicated that, in

  1. Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibelings, Bas W.; Backer, Lorraine C.; Kardinaal, W. Edwin A.; Chorus, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    assumptions such as bloom duration, average body size and the amount of water consumed while swimming vary according to local circumstances. Furthermore, for toxins with incomplete toxicological data elements of expert judgment become more relevant and this also leads to a larger degree of variation between countries’ thresholds triggering certain actions. Cyanobacterial blooms and their cyanotoxin content are a highly variable phenomenon, largely depending on local conditions, and likely concentrations can be assessed and managed best if the specific conditions of the locality are known and their impact on bloom occurrence are understood. Risk Management Frameworks, such as for example the Water Safety Plan concept of the WHO and the ‘bathing water profile’ of the European Union are suggested to be effective approaches for preventing human exposure by managing toxic cyanobacteria from catchment to consumer for drinking water and at recreational sites. PMID:26435706

  2. Current approaches to cyanotoxin risk assessment and risk management around the globe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibelings, Bas W; Backer, Lorraine C; Kardinaal, W Edwin A; Chorus, Ingrid

    2015-12-01

    assumptions such as bloom duration, average body size and the amount of water consumed while swimming vary according to local circumstances. Furthermore, for toxins with incomplete toxicological data elements of expert judgment become more relevant and this also leads to a larger degree of variation between countries' thresholds triggering certain actions. Cyanobacterial blooms and their cyanotoxin content are a highly variable phenomenon, largely depending on local conditions, and likely concentrations can be assessed and managed best if the specific conditions of the locality are known and their impact on bloom occurrence are understood. Risk Management Frameworks, such as for example the Water Safety Plan concept of the WHO and the 'bathing water profile' of the European Union are suggested to be effective approaches for preventing human exposure by managing toxic cyanobacteria from catchment to consumer for drinking water and at recreational sites.

  3. Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Tao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA, this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.

  4. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  5. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  6. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment methodology and results summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Atkinson, S.A.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1992-01-01

    The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Level 1 report documents a comprehensive and state-of-the-art study to establish and reduce the risk associated with operation of the ATR, expressed as a mean frequency of fuel damage. The ATR Level 1 PRA effort is unique and outstanding because of its consistent and state-of-the-art treatment of all facets of the risk study, its comprehensive and cost-effective risk reduction effort while the risk baseline was being established, and its thorough and comprehensive documentation. The PRA includes many improvements to the state-of-the-art, including the following: establishment of a comprehensive generic data base for component failures, treatment of initiating event frequencies given significant plant improvements in recent years, performance of efficient identification and screening of fire and flood events using code-assisted vital area analysis, identification and treatment of significant seismic-fire-flood-wind interactions, and modeling of large loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) and experiment loop ruptures leading to direct damage of the ATR core. 18 refs

  7. Methyldibromo glutaronitrile: clinical experience and exposure-based risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zachariae, Claus; Rastogi, Suresh; Devantier, Charlotte; Menné, Torkil; Johansen, Jeanne Duus

    2003-03-01

    In the year 2000, the level of methyldibromo glutaronitrile (MDGN) allergy in dermatology clinics in Europe exceeded the level of allergies to all other preservatives, with a prevalence of 3.5%. In the present study, cases of primary sensitization and elicitation to MDGN due to cosmetic products were collected over an 8-month period at the Department of Dermatology, Gentofte University Hospital. The aim was to identify the products related to hand eczema, assess exposure to MDGN in these products and relate the findings to results from a newly developed updated risk assessment model for contact allergy. Out of 24 patients with a positive patch test to MDGN, 17 patients with hand eczema were identified. In 11 of these patients, cosmetic products used in relation to the onset of the disease were shown to contain MDGN (65%). In 8 of these 11 cases, primary sensitization was probable, 5 due to hand/body lotions and 3 due to lotions and/or liquid hand soap. Chemical analysis of 12 products showed that lotions contained 149-390 ppm of MDGN, liquid hand soap 144-399 ppm, a rinsing cream 293 ppm and shampoos 78-79 ppm. The shampoo exposure was not of certain relevance to the eczema. Applying the newly developed updated risk assessment model showed that the concentrations of MDGN in lotions of 149-390 ppm exceeded the calculated maximum acceptable exposure level for MDGN, which would be expected to lead to sensitization in consumers using such products, as seen in the current study. The present cases and updated exposure-based risk assessment process add to the evidence and need for re-defining safe-use concentrations of MDGN in cosmetic products.

  8. Spatial Variation of Soil Lead in an Urban Community Garden: Implications for Risk-Based Sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugdalski, Lauren; Lemke, Lawrence D; McElmurry, Shawn P

    2014-01-01

    Soil lead pollution is a recalcitrant problem in urban areas resulting from a combination of historical residential, industrial, and transportation practices. The emergence of urban gardening movements in postindustrial cities necessitates accurate assessment of soil lead levels to ensure safe gardening. In this study, we examined small-scale spatial variability of soil lead within a 15 × 30 m urban garden plot established on two adjacent residential lots located in Detroit, Michigan, USA. Eighty samples collected using a variably spaced sampling grid were analyzed for total, fine fraction (less than 250 μm), and bioaccessible soil lead. Measured concentrations varied at sampling scales of 1-10 m and a hot spot exceeding 400 ppm total soil lead was identified in the northwest portion of the site. An interpolated map of total lead was treated as an exhaustive data set, and random sampling was simulated to generate Monte Carlo distributions and evaluate alternative sampling strategies intended to estimate the average soil lead concentration or detect hot spots. Increasing the number of individual samples decreases the probability of overlooking the hot spot (type II error). However, the practice of compositing and averaging samples decreased the probability of overestimating the mean concentration (type I error) at the expense of increasing the chance for type II error. The results reported here suggest a need to reconsider U.S. Environmental Protection Agency sampling objectives and consequent guidelines for reclaimed city lots where soil lead distributions are expected to be nonuniform. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  10. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  11. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  12. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  13. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  14. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  15. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  16. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  17. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  18. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  19. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2000-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)

  20. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  1. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  2. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  3. Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

    2001-01-01

    Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

  4. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  5. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  6. Heavy metal pollution and ecological risk assessment of the paddy soils near a zinc-lead mining area in Hunan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Sijin; Wang, Yeyao; Teng, Yanguo; Yu, Xuan

    2015-10-01

    Soil pollution by Cd, Hg, As, Pb, Cr, Cu, and Zn was characterized in the area of the mining and smelting of metal ores at Guiyang, northeast of Hunan Province. A total of 150 topsoil (0-20 cm) samples were collected in May 2012 with a nominal density of one sample per 4 km(2). High concentrations of heavy metals especially, Cd, Zn, and Pb were found in many of the samples taken from surrounding paddy soil, indicating a certain extent of spreading of heavy metal pollution. Sequential extraction technique and risk assessment code (RAC) were used to study the mobility of chemical forms of heavy metals in the soils and their ecological risk. The results reveal that Cd represents a high ecological risk due to its highest percentage of the exchangeable and carbonate fractions. The metals of Zn and Cu pose a medium risk, and the rest of the metals represent a low environmental risk. The range of the potential ecological risk of soil calculated by risk index (RI) was 123.5~2791.2 and revealed a considerable-high ecological risk in study area especially in the neighboring and surrounding the mining activities area. Additionally, cluster analyses suggested that metals such as Pb, As, Hg, Zn, and Cd could be from the same sources probably related to the acidic drainage and wind transport of dust. Cluster analysis also clearly distinguishes the samples with similar characteristics according to their spatial distribution. The results could be used during the ecological risk screening stage, in conjunction with total concentrations and metal fractionation values to better estimate ecological risk.

  7. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

  8. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  9. Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

    2009-04-01

    There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

  10. Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turturro, A; Hart, R W

    1987-01-01

    A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

  11. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  12. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  13. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Global Amphibian Extinction Risk Assessment for the Panzootic Chytrid Fungus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew C. Fisher

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Species are being lost at increasing rates due to anthropogenic effects, leading to the recognition that we are witnessing the onset of a sixth mass extinction. Emerging infectious disease has been shown to increase species loss and any attempts to reduce extinction rates need to squarely confront this challenge. Here, we develop a procedure for identifying amphibian species that are most at risk from the effects of chytridiomycosis by combining spatial analyses of key host life-history variables with the pathogen's predicted distribution. We apply our rule set to the known global diversity of amphibians in order to prioritize pecies that are most at risk of loss from disease emergence. This risk assessment shows where limited conservation funds are best deployed in order to prevent further loss of species by enabling ex situ amphibian salvage operations and focusing any potential disease mitigation projects.

  15. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  16. Lead and osteoporosis: Mobilization of lead from bone in postmenopausal women

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silbergeld, E.K. (Environmental Defense Fund, WA (USA)); Schwartz, J. (Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (USA)); Mahaffey, K. (National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Research Triangle Park, NC (USA))

    1988-10-01

    Although it has been known that humans accumulate lead in bone, mineralized tissue has been considered primarily as a sequestering compartment and not as a site of toxic action for lead. However, experimental data indicate that bone lead can be released during conditions of demineralization, such as pregnancy and lactation. We have examined lead status in women, before and after menopause, using the NHANES II dataset compiled between 1976 and 1980. In 2981 black and white women there was a highly significant increase in both whole blood and calculated plasma lead concentrations after menopause. The results indicate that bone lead is not an inert storage site for absorbed lead. Moreover, lead may interact with other factors in the course of postmenopausal osteoporosis, to aggravate the course of the disease, since lead is known to inhibit activation of vitamin D, uptake of dietary calcium, and several regulatory aspects of bone cell function. The consequences of this mobilization may also be of importance in assessing the risks of maternal lead exposure to fetal and infant health.

  17. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  18. Quantitative microbial risk assessment to estimate the health risk from exposure to noroviruses in polluted surface water in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Abel, Nicole; Mans, Janet; Taylor, Maureen B

    2017-10-01

    This study assessed the risks posed by noroviruses (NoVs) in surface water used for drinking, domestic, and recreational purposes in South Africa (SA), using a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) methodology that took a probabilistic approach coupling an exposure assessment with four dose-response models to account for uncertainty. Water samples from three rivers were found to be contaminated with NoV GI (80-1,900 gc/L) and GII (420-9,760 gc/L) leading to risk estimates that were lower for GI than GII. The volume of water consumed and the probabilities of infection were lower for domestic (2.91 × 10 -8 to 5.19 × 10 -1 ) than drinking water exposures (1.04 × 10 -5 to 7.24 × 10 -1 ). The annual probabilities of illness varied depending on the type of recreational water exposure with boating (3.91 × 10 -6 to 5.43 × 10 -1 ) and swimming (6.20 × 10 -6 to 6.42 × 10 -1 ) being slightly greater than playing next to/in the river (5.30 × 10 -7 to 5.48 × 10 -1 ). The QMRA was sensitive to the choice of dose-response model. The risk of NoV infection or illness from contaminated surface water is extremely high in SA, especially for lower socioeconomic individuals, but is similar to reported risks from limited international studies.

  19. Application of probabilistic risk assessment methodology to fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piet, S.J.

    1985-07-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools are applied to general fusion issues in a systematic way, generally qualitatively. The potential value of PRA to general fusion safety and economic issues is discussed. Several important design insights result: possible fault interactions must be minimized (decouple fault conditions), inherently safe designs must include provision for passively handling loss of site power and loss of coolant conditions, the reliability of the vacuum boundary appears vital to maximizing facility availabilty and minimizing safety risk, and economic analyses appear to be incomplete without consideration of potential availability loss from forced outrages. A modification to PRA formalism is introduced, called the fault interaction matrix. The fault interaction matrix contains information concerning what initial fault condition could lead to other fault conditions and with what frequency. Thus, the fault interaction matrix represents a way to present and measure the degree to which a designer has decoupled possible fault conditions in his design

  20. Risk Assessment of Arsenic Mitigation Options in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M. Feroze; Shamsuddin, Abu Jafar; Mahmud, Shamsul Gafur; Deere, Daniel

    2006-01-01

    The provision of alternative water sources is the principal arsenic mitigation strategy in Bangladesh, but can lead to risk substitution. A study of arsenic mitigation options was undertaken to assess water quality and sanitary condition and to estimate the burden of disease associated with each technology in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Dugwells and pond-sand filters showed heavy microbial contamination in both dry and monsoon seasons, and the estimated burden of disease was high. Rainwater was of good quality in the monsoon but deteriorated in the dry season. Deep tubewells showed microbial contamination in the monsoon but not in the dry season and was the only technology to approach the World Health Organization's reference level of risk of 10-6 DALYs. A few dugwells and one pond-sand filter showed arsenic in excess of 50 μg/L. The findings suggest that deep tubewells and rainwater harvesting provide safer water than dugwells and pond-sand filters and should be the preferred options. PMID:17366776

  1. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Stephen S; Vos, Theo; Flaxman, Abraham D; Danaei, Goodarz; Shibuya, Kenji; Adair-Rohani, Heather; Amann, Markus; Anderson, H Ross; Andrews, Kathryn G; Aryee, Martin; Atkinson, Charles; Bacchus, Loraine J; Bahalim, Adil N; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Balmes, John; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Baxter, Amanda; Bell, Michelle L; Blore, Jed D; Blyth, Fiona; Bonner, Carissa; Borges, Guilherme; Bourne, Rupert; Boussinesq, Michel; Brauer, Michael; Brooks, Peter; Bruce, Nigel G; Brunekreef, Bert; Bryan-Hancock, Claire; Bucello, Chiara; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Bull, Fiona; Burnett, Richard T; Byers, Tim E; Calabria, Bianca; Carapetis, Jonathan; Carnahan, Emily; Chafe, Zoe; Charlson, Fiona; Chen, Honglei; Chen, Jian Shen; Cheng, Andrew Tai-Ann; Child, Jennifer Christine; Cohen, Aaron; Colson, K Ellicott; Cowie, Benjamin C; Darby, Sarah; Darling, Susan; Davis, Adrian; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dentener, Frank; Des Jarlais, Don C; Devries, Karen; Dherani, Mukesh; Ding, Eric L; Dorsey, E Ray; Driscoll, Tim; Edmond, Karen; Ali, Suad Eltahir; Engell, Rebecca E; Erwin, Patricia J; Fahimi, Saman; Falder, Gail; Farzadfar, Farshad; Ferrari, Alize; Finucane, Mariel M; Flaxman, Seth; Fowkes, Francis Gerry R; Freedman, Greg; Freeman, Michael K; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Ghosh, Santu; Giovannucci, Edward; Gmel, Gerhard; Graham, Kathryn; Grainger, Rebecca; Grant, Bridget; Gunnell, David; Gutierrez, Hialy R; Hall, Wayne; Hoek, Hans W; Hogan, Anthony; Hosgood, H Dean; Hoy, Damian; Hu, Howard; Hubbell, Bryan J; Hutchings, Sally J; Ibeanusi, Sydney E; Jacklyn, Gemma L; Jasrasaria, Rashmi; Jonas, Jost B; Kan, Haidong; Kanis, John A; Kassebaum, Nicholas; Kawakami, Norito; Khang, Young-Ho; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Khoo, Jon-Paul; Kok, Cindy; Laden, Francine; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lan, Qing; Lathlean, Tim; Leasher, Janet L; Leigh, James; Li, Yang; Lin, John Kent; Lipshultz, Steven E; London, Stephanie; Lozano, Rafael; Lu, Yuan; Mak, Joelle; Malekzadeh, Reza; Mallinger, Leslie; Marcenes, Wagner; March, Lyn; Marks, Robin; Martin, Randall; McGale, Paul; McGrath, John; Mehta, Sumi; Mensah, George A; Merriman, Tony R; Micha, Renata; Michaud, Catherine; Mishra, Vinod; Mohd Hanafiah, Khayriyyah; Mokdad, Ali A; Morawska, Lidia; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Murphy, Tasha; Naghavi, Mohsen; Neal, Bruce; Nelson, Paul K; Nolla, Joan Miquel; Norman, Rosana; Olives, Casey; Omer, Saad B; Orchard, Jessica; Osborne, Richard; Ostro, Bart; Page, Andrew; Pandey, Kiran D; Parry, Charles D H; Passmore, Erin; Patra, Jayadeep; Pearce, Neil; Pelizzari, Pamela M; Petzold, Max; Phillips, Michael R; Pope, Dan; Pope, C Arden; Powles, John; Rao, Mayuree; Razavi, Homie; Rehfuess, Eva A; Rehm, Jürgen T; Ritz, Beate; Rivara, Frederick P; Roberts, Thomas; Robinson, Carolyn; Rodriguez-Portales, Jose A; Romieu, Isabelle; Room, Robin; Rosenfeld, Lisa C; Roy, Ananya; Rushton, Lesley; Salomon, Joshua A; Sampson, Uchechukwu; Sanchez-Riera, Lidia; Sanman, Ella; Sapkota, Amir; Seedat, Soraya; Shi, Peilin; Shield, Kevin; Shivakoti, Rupak; Singh, Gitanjali M; Sleet, David A; Smith, Emma; Smith, Kirk R; Stapelberg, Nicolas J C; Steenland, Kyle; Stöckl, Heidi; Stovner, Lars Jacob; Straif, Kurt; Straney, Lahn; Thurston, George D; Tran, Jimmy H; Van Dingenen, Rita; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Veerman, J Lennert; Vijayakumar, Lakshmi; Weintraub, Robert; Weissman, Myrna M; White, Richard A; Whiteford, Harvey; Wiersma, Steven T; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Hywel C; Williams, Warwick; Wilson, Nicholas; Woolf, Anthony D; Yip, Paul; Zielinski, Jan M; Lopez, Alan D; Murray, Christopher J L; Ezzati, Majid; AlMazroa, Mohammad A; Memish, Ziad A

    2012-12-15

    Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved

  2. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  3. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  4. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  5. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-01-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

  6. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  7. Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heikkeroe, Topi

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology

  8. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  9. Risk analysis methods: their importance for safety assessment of practices using radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumenigo, C; Vilaragut, J.J.; Ferro, R.; Guillen, A.; Ramirez, M.L.; Ortiz Lopez, P.; Rodriguez, M.; McDonnell, J.D.; Papadopulos, S.; Pereira, P.P.; Goncalvez, M.; Morales, J.; Larrinaga, E.; Lopez Morones, R.; Sanchez, R.; Delgado, J.M.; Sanchez, C.; Somoano, F.

    2008-01-01

    Radiation safety has been based for many years on verification of compliance with regulatory requirements, codes of practice and international standards, which can be considered prescriptive methods. Accident analyses have been published, lessons have been learned and safety assessments have incorporated the need to check whether a facility is ready to avoid accidents similar to the reported ones. These approaches can be also called 'reactive methods'. They have in common the fundamental limitation of being restricted to reported experience, but do not take into account other potential events, which were never published or never happened, i.e. latent risks. Moreover, they focus on accident sequences with major consequences and low probability but may not pay enough attention to other sequences leading to lower, but still significant consequences with higher probability. More proactive approaches are, therefore, needed, to assess risk in radiation facilities. They aim at identifying all potential equipment faults and human error, which can lead to predefined unwanted consequences and are based on the general risk equation: Risk = Probability of occurrence of an accidental sequence * magnitude of the consequences. In this work, a review is given of the experience obtained by the countries of the Ibero American Forum of Nuclear and Radiation Safety Regulatory Organizations, by applying proactive methods to radiotherapy practice. In particular, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) used for external beam treatments with linear electron accelerators and two studies, on cobalt 60 therapy and brachytherapy using the risk-matrix approach are presented. The work has identified event sequences, their likelihood of occurrence, the consequences, the efficiency of interlocks and control checks and the global importance in terms of overall risk, to facilitate decision making and implementation of preventive measures. A comparison is presented of advantages and limitations of

  10. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  11. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  12. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  13. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  14. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  15. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  16. A spatially-based modeling framework for assessing the risks of soil-associated metals to bats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernout, Béatrice V.; Somerwill, Kate E.; Arnold, Kathryn E.; McClean, Colin J.; Boxall, Alistair B.A.

    2013-01-01

    Populations of some species of bats are declining in some regions of Europe. These declines are probably due to a range of pressures, including climate change, urbanization and exposure to toxins such as metals. This paper describes the development, paramaterisation and application of a spatially explicit modeling framework to predict the risks of soil-associated metals (lead, copper, zinc and cadmium) to bat health. Around 5.9% of areas where bats reside were predicted to have lead levels that pose a risk to bat health. For copper, this value was 2.8%, for cadmium it was 0.6% and for zinc 0.5%. Further work is therefore warranted to explore the impacts of soil-associated metals on bat populations in the UK. - Highlights: ► A modeling framework is presented to estimate risks of contaminants to wildlife. ► The model has been applied to soil metal contamination and bat species. ► Results indicate that lead and copper pose the greatest risk to bat health. ► A risk is predicted for up to 6% of areas where bats reside in England and Wales. - Application of a novel, spatially explicit risk assessment framework indicates that the health of insectivorous bat species in some regions of the UK may be at threat from exposure to soil associated metals.

  17. Assessment of professional risk caused by heating microclimate in the process of un-derground mining

    OpenAIRE

    М. Л. Рудаков; И. С. Степанов

    2017-01-01

    The paper reviews the possibility to apply probit-function to assess professional risks of underground mining under conditions of heating microclimate. Operations under conditions of heating microclimate, whose parameters exceed threshold criteria, can lead to dehydration, fainting and heat stroke for mine workers. Basing on the results of medico-biological research on the effects of microclimate on human body, the authors have assessed probabilistic nature of excessive heat accumulation depe...

  18. Sudbury soils study : human health and ecological risk assessment : a case study in science, process and perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wren, C.

    2009-01-01

    This presentation discussed the public relations and public opinion strategies used as part of a soils study conducted to assess the risk of mining activities in the Sudbury region to human health and the environment. The human health risk assessment (HHRA) study was conducted and administered by a multi-stakeholder technical committee attended by the public. The study was comprised of extensive soil collection and analysis; a review of historical soils data; and extensive human health and ecological risk assessments. Extensive sampling was also conducted on air, dust, and locally-produced foods. A public advisory committee was formed to disseminate scientific information to the community. Scientific data obtained in the study were reviewed by experts in various fields. Results of the study were also peer-reviewed by an independent expert review panel comprised of leading specialists in human health, toxicology, speciation, and risk assessment. The study showed that the identified risks were over-estimated in the interest of protecting human health. It was concluded that the HHRA's findings were generally accepted by the public. tabs., figs

  19. Heavy Metal Contamination in Soil and Brown Rice and Human Health Risk Assessment near Three Mining Areas in Central China

    OpenAIRE

    Fan, Yu; Zhu, Tingping; Li, Mengtong; He, Jieyi; Huang, Ruixue

    2017-01-01

    Background. Metal mining and waste discharge lead to regional heavy metal contamination and attract major concern because of the potential risk to local residents. Methods. This research was conducted to determine lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), arsenic (As), manganese (Mn), and antimony (Sb) concentrations in soil and brown rice samples from three heavy metal mining areas in Hunan Province, central China, and to assess the potential health risks to local inhabitants. Results. Local soil contaminati...

  20. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  1. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  2. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

  3. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  4. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  5. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  6. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  7. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  8. An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

    2017-07-01

    The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

  9. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Investigation on life cycle assessment of lead and zinc production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabere Nazari

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Lead and zinc production is one of the main predisposing factors of excessive greenhouse gases emissions, air pollution and water consumption. In this paper, the environmental problems of lead and zinc production in Calcimin plant are expressed and life cycle assessment of this plant is assessed. The data regarding the amount of induced global warming and pollution, acidification, and depletion of water resources were collected and discussed. It was concluded that depletion of water resources affected the environment and this was the main issue of the lead and zinc production of this plant. According to the results, in the global warming’s impact category, the proportion of carbon dioxide is more than that of methane. The results also showed that in the acidification’s impact category, the nitrogen oxide proportion is greater compared to that of the sulfur dioxide.

  11. Metal uptake by homegrown vegetables – The relative importance in human health risk assessments at contaminated sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Augustsson, Anna L.M.; Uddh-Söderberg, Terese E.; Hogmalm, K. Johan; Filipsson, Monika E.M.

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessments of contaminated land often involve the use of generic bioconcentration factors (BCFs), which express contaminant concentrations in edible plant parts as a function of the concentration in soil, in order to assess the risks associated with consumption of homegrown vegetables. This study aimed to quantify variability in BCFs and evaluate the implications of this variability for human exposure assessments, focusing on cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) in lettuce and potatoes sampled around 22 contaminated glassworks sites. In addition, risks associated with measured Cd and Pb concentrations in soil and vegetable samples were characterized and a probabilistic exposure assessment was conducted to estimate the likelihood of local residents exceeding tolerable daily intakes. The results show that concentrations in vegetables were only moderately elevated despite high concentrations in soil, and most samples complied with applicable foodstuff legislation. Still, the daily intake of Cd (but not Pb) was assessed to exceed toxicological thresholds for about a fifth of the study population. Bioconcentration factors were found to vary more than indicated by previous studies, but decreasing BCFs with increasing metal concentrations in the soil can explain why the calculated exposure is only moderately affected by the choice of BCF value when generic soil guideline values are exceeded and the risk may be unacceptable. - Highlights: • Uptake of Cd and Pb by lettuce and potatoes increased with soil contamination. • Consumption of homegrown vegetables may lead to a daily Cd intake above TDIs. • The variability in the calculated BCFs is high when compared to previous studies. • Exposure assessments are most sensitive to the choice of BCFs at low contamination

  12. Metal uptake by homegrown vegetables – The relative importance in human health risk assessments at contaminated sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Augustsson, Anna L.M., E-mail: anna.augustsson@lnu.se [Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, SE-391 82 Kalmar (Sweden); Uddh-Söderberg, Terese E. [Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, SE-391 82 Kalmar (Sweden); Hogmalm, K. Johan [Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg (Sweden); Filipsson, Monika E.M. [Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, SE-391 82 Kalmar (Sweden)

    2015-04-15

    Risk assessments of contaminated land often involve the use of generic bioconcentration factors (BCFs), which express contaminant concentrations in edible plant parts as a function of the concentration in soil, in order to assess the risks associated with consumption of homegrown vegetables. This study aimed to quantify variability in BCFs and evaluate the implications of this variability for human exposure assessments, focusing on cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) in lettuce and potatoes sampled around 22 contaminated glassworks sites. In addition, risks associated with measured Cd and Pb concentrations in soil and vegetable samples were characterized and a probabilistic exposure assessment was conducted to estimate the likelihood of local residents exceeding tolerable daily intakes. The results show that concentrations in vegetables were only moderately elevated despite high concentrations in soil, and most samples complied with applicable foodstuff legislation. Still, the daily intake of Cd (but not Pb) was assessed to exceed toxicological thresholds for about a fifth of the study population. Bioconcentration factors were found to vary more than indicated by previous studies, but decreasing BCFs with increasing metal concentrations in the soil can explain why the calculated exposure is only moderately affected by the choice of BCF value when generic soil guideline values are exceeded and the risk may be unacceptable. - Highlights: • Uptake of Cd and Pb by lettuce and potatoes increased with soil contamination. • Consumption of homegrown vegetables may lead to a daily Cd intake above TDIs. • The variability in the calculated BCFs is high when compared to previous studies. • Exposure assessments are most sensitive to the choice of BCFs at low contamination.

  13. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  14. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  15. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  16. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  17. 76 FR 44891 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-27

    ...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our draft environmental assessment for the proposed...-2817 before coming. The petition, draft environmental assessment, and plant pest risk assessment are...

  18. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  20. Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

  1. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith

    2001-01-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in practice, decision

  2. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith [Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom). Centre for Environmental Research and Training; Pollard, Simon; Twigger-Ross, Clare [National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, London (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in

  3. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  4. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  5. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  6. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, Patrick [Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General XI, Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection (Belgium)

    1992-07-01

    In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

  7. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, Patrick

    1992-01-01

    In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

  8. Slope Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Tropics: Malaysia' Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad, Zakaria; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Ahmad, Ferdaus; Manap, Mohamad Abdul; Ramli, Zamri; Ahmad, Azhari; Mohamed, Zainab

    2015-04-01

    . Geological, morphological, and physical factors coupled with anthropogenic activities made the spatiotemporal prediction of possible slope failures very challenging. Changing climate and land-use-and-land-cover required a dynamic geo-system approach for assessing multi-hazard in Malaysia and it is still a great challenge to be dealt with. We also critically discussed the capability, limitation and future direction of geo-information tools particularly the active sensors for systematically providing the spatial input towards landslide hazard and possible risk. The cost-and-benefit of developed methods compared to traditional mapping techniques is also elaborated. This paper put forth the critical and practical framework ranging from updating landslide inventory to mitigating landslide risk as an attempt to support the establishment of a comprehensive landslide risk management in Malaysia. The advancement of multistage processing sequence based on airborne-, and ground-based laser remote sensing technology coupling with the sophisticated satellite positioning system, advanced geographical information system and expert knowledge leading to a better understanding of the landslide processes and their dynamics in time and space. Given the state-of-the-art of multi-sensor-LIDAR and complexity of tropical environment, this first landslide project carried out at the national scale provides a better indication and recommendation on the use of modern and advanced mapping technology for assessing tropical landslide geomorphology in an objective, reproducible and quantitative manner.

  9. Assessing the cost-effectiveness of seismic risk reduction options in oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasserasadi, K.; Ghafory-Ashtiany, M.

    2007-01-01

    An integrated probabilistic methodology for cost-efficiency estimation of different sort of seismic risk management measures are introduced by adding Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) module to an integrated seismic risk assessment model. An oil refinery in Iran has been selected for case study and cost-efficiency of software and hardware mitigation measures are evaluated. The results have shown that: (1) software mitigation measures have more benefit than hardware ones, (2) considering indirect loss in CBA lead to more benefit-cost ratio and (3) although increase of discount ratio decreases the benefit-cost ratio, the arrangement of mitigation measures from benefit-cost viewpoint are constant. (authors)

  10. Qualified Presumption of Safety (QPS) is a generic risk assessment approach applied by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leuschner, R. G. K.; Robinson, T. P.; Hugas, M.

    2010-01-01

    Qualified Presumption of Safety (QPS) is a generic risk assessment approach applied by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) to notified biological agents aiming at simplifying risk assessments across different scientific Panels and Units. The aim of this review is to outline the implementation...... and value of the QPS assessment for EFSA and to explain its principles such as the unambiguous identity of a taxonomic unit, the body of knowledge including potential safety concerns and how these considerations lead to a list of biological agents recommended for QPS which EFSA keeps updated through...

  11. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  12. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  13. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  14. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  15. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  16. 78 FR 15894 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-13

    .... FDA-2012-N-1258] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for... comment period for a document entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/ [[Page... ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside the Farm...

  17. Landslide risk assessment and landslide disaster risk management: on the missing link between scientific knowledge, decision making and practice (Sergey Soloviev Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcántara-Ayala, Irasema

    2016-04-01

    Different investigations have been developed to address the uncertainty and quality evaluations leading to improve landslide hazard and risk assessment. With no doubt, and by using a wide range of scientific and technical approaches, they have contributed to a major extent to the understanding of the dynamics of landslide processes at different scales. Nonetheless, in a similar fashion than other hazards, it has been rather difficult to assess in a precise manner the multi-dimensions of their associated vulnerability and what is more, to effectively link risk assessments with disaster risk management. Owing to the double-character of landslide events, as natural and socio-natural hazards, mass movements turn out to be very complex processes, as their occurrence is also enhanced by population growth, socio-economic inequality, urbanization processes, land-degradation, unsustainable practices and mounting hazard exposure. Disaster Risk Management rope in the actions to attain Disaster Risk Reduction. The latter aims at decreasing existing hazard, vulnerability, and exposure, in addition to strengthening resilience, and very importantly, avoiding the construction of future disaster risk (UNISDR, 2015a). More specifically, and along the same line of ideas, the new-fangled Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) 2015-2030 (UNISDR, 2015b) points towards reducing disaster risk and losses by engaging in a series of actions at local, national and global levels. Among them and of utterly significance are those initiatives related to the need of moving from risk assessment into disaster risk management. Consequently, and beyond championing scientific and technical capacity to strengthen landslide knowledge to assess vulnerability, hazard exposure and disaster risks, the challenge remains in the realm of promoting and improving permanent communication, dialogue and partnership among the science and technology communities, policymakers and other stakeholders

  18. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  19. Assessment of Copper, Cadmium and Lead in Organical Matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutierrez, Ariel

    2000-08-01

    In this report the electrochemical method of differential pulse anode voltametry redisolution voltametry is used to quantitative assessment of copper, cadmium and lead in solution. The methodology is described in the preparation of samples for measurement

  20. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  1. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  2. Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi

    2010-01-01

    Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

  3. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  4. Risk Assessment of Nautical Navigational Environment Based on Grey Fixed Weight Cluster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanfei Tian

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to set up a mathematical model suitable for nautical navigational environment risk evaluation and systematically master the navigational environment risk characteristics of the Qiongzhou Strait in a quantitative way, a risk assessment model with approach steps is set up based on the grey fixed weight cluster (GFWC. The evaluation index system is structured scientifically through both literature review and expert investigation. The relative weight of each index is designed to be obtained via fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP; Index membership degree of every grey class is proposed to be achieved by fuzzy statistics (FS to avoid the difficulty of building whiten weight functions. By using the model, nautical navigational environment risk of the Qiongzhou Strait is determined at a “moderate” level according to the principle of maximum membership degree. The comprehensive risk evaluation of the Qiongzhou Strait nautical navigational environment can provide theoretical reference for implementing targeted risk control measures. It shows that the constructed GFWC risk assessment model as well as the presented steps are workable in case of incomplete information. The proposed strategy can excavate the collected experts’ knowledge mathematically, quantify the weight of each index and risk level, and finally lead to a comprehensive risk evaluation result. Besides, the adoptions of probability and statistic theory, fuzzy theory, aiming at solving the bottlenecks in case of uncertainty, will give the model a better adaptability and executability.

  5. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  6. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  7. Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narumiya, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

  8. Indirect human exposure assessment of airborne lead deposited on soil via a simplified fate and speciation modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzol, Massimo; Bulle, Cécile; Thomsen, Marianne

    2012-04-01

    In order to estimate the total exposure to the lead emissions from a municipal waste combustion plant in Denmark, the indirect pathway via ingestion of lead deposited on soil has to be quantified. Multi-media fate models developed for both Risk Assessment (RA) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can be used for this purpose, but present high uncertainties in the assessment of metal's fate. More sophisticated and metal-specific geochemical models exist, that could lower the uncertainties by e.g. accounting for metal speciation, but they require a large amount of data and are unpractical to combine broadly with other fate and dispersion models. In this study, a Simplified Fate & Speciation Model (SFSM) is presented, that is based on the parsimony principle: "as simple as possible, as complex as needed", and that can be used for indirect human exposure assessment in different context like RA and regionalized LCA. SFSM couples traditional multi-media mass balances with empirical speciation models in a tool that has a simple theoretical framework and that is not data-intensive. The model calculates total concentration, dissolved concentration, and free ion activity of Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in different soil layers, after accounting for metal deposition and dispersion. The model is tested for these five metals by using data from peer reviewed literature. Results show good accordance between measured and calculated values (factor of 3). The model is used to predict the human exposure via soil to lead initially emitted into air by the waste combustion plant and both the lead cumulative exposure and intake fraction are calculated. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. An Analysis of the Factors Leading to Rising Credit Risk in the Zimbabwe Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxwell Sandada

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The study sought to analyse the factors that lead to rising credit risk in the Zimbabwean banking sector. The objective was to ascertain the impact of macroeconomic, industry and bank specific factors on rising credit risk in in Zimbabwe. The study aimed at contributing to credit risk management literature by providing evidence Sub Saharan context. Being anchored on the positivist quantitative research approach, a survey was carried out gather the data that were analysed using descriptive, correlation and regression analyses. The results revealed that the most significant factors leading to credit risk in the Zimbabwean banking sector were macroeconomic and bank specific factors. The industry factors did not show a significant influence on the rising credit risk. The research findings of this study will a valuable addition to the existing knowledge and provide a platform for further research on how the credit risk problems can be dealt with. While credit risk is known as one of the risks inherent to any banking institutions, the alarming levels of credit risk in the Zimbabwe banking sector has motivated this current study to critically analyse the factors that have led to the high credit risk levels.

  10. Risk assessment of safety violations for coal mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Megan Orsulaka; Vladislav Kecojevicb; Larry Graysona; Antonio Nietoa [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States). Dept of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2010-09-15

    This article presents an application of a risk assessment approach in characterising the risks associated with safety violations in underground bituminous mines in Pennsylvania using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) citation database. The MSHA database on citations provides an opportunity to assess risks in mines through scrutiny of violations of mandatory safety standards. In this study, quantitative risk assessment is performed, which allows determination of the frequency of occurrence of safety violations (through associated citations) as well as the consequences of them in terms of penalty assessments. Focus is on establishing risk matrices on citation experiences of mines, which can give early indication of emerging potentially serious problems. The resulting frequency, consequence and risk rankings present valuable tools for prioritising resource allocations, determining control strategies, and could potentially contribute to more proactive prevention of incidents and injuries.

  11. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  12. Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

  13. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  14. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  15. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  16. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  17. The perception of midwives regarding psychosocial risk assessment during antenatal care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna M. Mathibe-Neke

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The physiological and psychological changes caused by pregnancy may increase a woman’s vulnerability to depression, which may in turn have adverse effects on both maternal and foetal wellbeing. Inadequate psychosocial risk assessment of women by midwives may lead to lack of psychosocial support during pregnancy and childbirth. Pregnant women who lack psychosocial support may experience stress, anxiety and depression that could possibly affect foetal wellbeing. Objective:The objective of this study was toexplore and describe the perception of psychosocial risk assessment and psychosocial care by midwives providing antenatal care to pregnant women. Method: An interpretive and descriptive qualitative approach was adopted. Three focus group interviews were conducted with midwives working in three Maternal Obstetric Units in Gauteng Province, using a semi-structured interview guide. The constant comparison data analysis approach was used. Results:Findings revealed that midwives are aware of and have encountered a high prevalence of psychosocial problems in pregnant women. Furthermore, they acknowledged the importance of psychosocial care for pregnant women although they stated that they were not equipped adequately to offer psychosocial assessment and psychosocial care. Conclusion:The findings provided a basis for incorporation of psychosocial care into routine antenatal care.

  18. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  19. Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ragozin, A.L.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

  20. Resource handbook on transport risk assessment (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; Luna, R.; Weiner, R.; Yoshimura, R.; Detrick, C.; Dunn, T.; Maheras, S.; Bhatnager, S.; Kapoor, A.K.

    2003-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program established the DOE Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group (TRAWG) to develop the Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment, published in July 2002. The working group is comprised of technical experts representing DOE national laboratories, the DOE Naval Reactors Program, and DOE contractors. The motivation behind preparing this handbook was to document and disseminate lessons learned and information accumulated from more than 20 years of experience by DOE and its contractors in preparing transport risk assessments that address the shipment of virtually all types of radioactive materials and wastes. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information on conducting transport risk assessments for shipments of radioactive materials or wastes under both normal and accident conditions. The paper provides an overview of the information contained in the handbook. It should be recognised that development of radioactive materials transport risk assessment is an ongoing process, and that the analysis methods are regularly improved. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment appears on the Web at www.ntp.doe.gov/transrisk_handbook.pdf. (author)

  1. Comparative risk assessment of carcinogens in alcoholic beverages using the margin of exposure approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Przybylski, Maria C; Rehm, Jürgen

    2012-09-15

    Alcoholic beverages have been classified as carcinogenic to humans. As alcoholic beverages are multicomponent mixtures containing several carcinogenic compounds, a quantitative approach is necessary to compare the risks. Fifteen known and suspected human carcinogens (acetaldehyde, acrylamide, aflatoxins, arsenic, benzene, cadmium, ethanol, ethyl carbamate, formaldehyde, furan, lead, 4-methylimidazole, N-nitrosodimethylamine, ochratoxin A and safrole) occurring in alcoholic beverages were identified based on monograph reviews by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The margin of exposure (MOE) approach was used for comparative risk assessment. MOE compares a toxicological threshold with the exposure. MOEs above 10,000 are judged as low priority for risk management action. MOEs were calculated for different drinking scenarios (low risk and heavy drinking) and different levels of contamination for four beverage groups (beer, wine, spirits and unrecorded alcohol). The lowest MOEs were found for ethanol (3.1 for low risk and 0.8 for heavy drinking). Inorganic lead and arsenic have average MOEs between 10 and 300, followed by acetaldehyde, cadmium and ethyl carbamate between 1,000 and 10,000. All other compounds had average MOEs above 10,000 independent of beverage type. Ethanol was identified as the most important carcinogen in alcoholic beverages, with clear dose response. Some other compounds (lead, arsenic, ethyl carbamate, acetaldehyde) may pose risks below thresholds normally tolerated for food contaminants, but from a cost-effectiveness point of view, the focus should be on reducing alcohol consumption in general rather than on mitigative measures for some contaminants that contribute only to a limited extent (if at all) to the total health risk. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

  2. Arkansas People Participating in Lead Education (APPLE): results of a lead-safe training program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Alesia; Bursac, Zoran; Kern, David F

    2011-06-01

    Lead is still seen as one of the most harmful environmental toxins for young children, with the predominant source being deteriorating lead-based paint. Those at continued risk include those living in homes built before 1978, renovators and remodelers, and especially those with limited access to proper healthcare and diets. Proper training on lead-safe work practices focused on preventing and reducing the spread of lead dust can help reduce lead exposure. Presented in this paper are experiences in delivering lead-safe work practices training in six Arkansas cities, and results from pre- and post- surveys delivered before and immediately after the training. Pre- and post-surveys assess strong and weak areas of training. Participants demonstrated positive shifts in attitude and behavior towards lead-safe work practices following training. However, our research found that more emphasis should be focused on clarifying current lead exposure sources and routes for children.

  3. Safety and security risk assessments--now demystified!

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Donald E

    2011-01-01

    Safety/security risk assessments no longer need to spook nor baffle healthcare safety/security managers. This grid template provides at-at-glance quick lookup of the possible threats, the affected people and things, a priority ranking of these risks, and a workable solution for each risk. Using the standard document, spreadsheet, or graphics software already available on your computer, you can easily use a scientific method to produce professional looking risk assessments that get quickly understood by both senior managers and first responders alike!

  4. The occurrence and ecological risk assessment of phthalate esters (PAEs) in urban aquatic environments of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lulu; Liu, Jingling; Liu, Huayong; Wan, Guisheng; Zhang, Shaowei

    2015-07-01

    Phthalate esters (PAEs) are widely used in the manufacturing of plastics, and the demand for PAEs has grown rapidly, especially in China. This trend will lead to much more environmental PAE contamination. PAEs are listed as priority substances in the European Union and are therefore subject to ecological risk assessments. This paper reviews the literature concerning the pollution status of PAEs and their ecological risk to aquatic environments. Risk quotients (RQs) based on the predicted no effect concentration and PAE concentrations in aquatic environments demonstrated significant (10 ≤ RQ plastics are produced.

  5. Lead in rice: analysis of baseline lead levels in market and field collected rice grains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, Gareth J; Williams, Paul N; Adomako, Eureka E; Price, Adam H; Zhu, Yongguan; Zhao, Fang-Jie; McGrath, Steve; Deacon, Claire M; Villada, Antia; Sommella, Alessia; Lu, Ying; Ming, Lei; De Silva, P Mangala C S; Brammer, Hugh; Dasgupta, Tapash; Islam, M Rafiqul; Meharg, Andrew A

    2014-07-01

    In a large scale survey of rice grains from markets (13 countries) and fields (6 countries), a total of 1578 rice grain samples were analysed for lead. From the market collected samples, only 0.6% of the samples exceeded the Chinese and EU limit of 0.2 μg g(-1) lead in rice (when excluding samples collected from known contaminated/mine impacted regions). When evaluating the rice grain samples against the Food and Drug Administration's (FDA) provisional total tolerable intake (PTTI) values for children and pregnant women, it was found that only people consuming large quantities of rice were at risk of exceeding the PTTI from rice alone. Furthermore, 6 field experiments were conducted to evaluate the proportion of the variation in lead concentration in rice grains due to genetics. A total of 4 of the 6 field experiments had significant differences between genotypes, but when the genotypes common across all six field sites were assessed, only 4% of the variation was explained by genotype, with 9.5% and 11% of the variation explained by the environment and genotype by environment interaction respectively. Further work is needed to identify the sources of lead contamination in rice, with detailed information obtained on the locations and environments where the rice is sampled, so that specific risk assessments can be performed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Assessing systematic risk in the S&P500 index between 2000 and 2011: A Bayesian nonparametric approach

    OpenAIRE

    Rodríguez, Abel; Wang, Ziwei; Kottas, Athanasios

    2017-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian nonparametric model to assess the effect of systematic risks on multiple financial markets, and apply it to understand the behavior of the S&P500 sector indexes between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2011. More than prediction, our main goal is to understand the evolution of systematic and idiosyncratic risks in the U.S. economy over this particular time period, leading to novel sector-specific risk indexes. To accomplish this goal, we model the appearance of extreme l...

  7. A comparison of integrated safety analysis and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damon, Dennis R.; Mattern, Kevin S.

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission conducted a comparison of two standard tools for risk informing the regulatory process, namely, the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and the Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA). PRA is a calculation of risk metrics, such as Large Early Release Frequency (LERF), and has been used to assess the safety of all commercial power reactors. ISA is an analysis required for fuel cycle facilities (FCFs) licensed to possess potentially critical quantities of special nuclear material. A PRA is usually more detailed and uses more refined models and data than an ISA, in order to obtain reasonable quantitative estimates of risk. PRA is considered fully quantitative, while most ISAs are typically only partially quantitative. The extension of PRA methodology to augment or supplant ISAs in FCFs has long been considered. However, fuel cycle facilities have a wide variety of possible accident consequences, rather than a few surrogates like LERF or core damage as used for reactors. It has been noted that a fuel cycle PRA could be used to better focus attention on the most risk-significant structures, systems, components, and operator actions. ISA and PRA both identify accident sequences; however, their treatment is quite different. ISA's identify accidents that lead to high or intermediate consequences, as defined in 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 70, and develop a set of Items Relied on For Safety (IROFS) to assure adherence to performance criteria. PRAs identify potential accident scenarios and estimate their frequency and consequences to obtain risk metrics. It is acceptable for ISAs to provide bounding evaluations of accident consequences and likelihoods in order to establish acceptable safety; but PRA applications usually require a reasonable quantitative estimate, and often obtain metrics of uncertainty. This paper provides the background, features, and methodology associated with the PRA and ISA. The differences between the

  8. Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter II, G.W.

    2003-06-18

    The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.

  9. Determination of lead and radioactivity in cosmetics products: Hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Medhat Moustafa E.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the proposed work, an investigation on hazard assessment by lead element and natural radioactivity in cosmetic samples collected from various countries is presented. These samples were face powder, eyebrow paint and henna. The lead element in cosmetic samples was determined using particle-induced X-ray emission. Maximum natural radioactivity concentrations of 226Ra and 40K were found in khol and make-up cosmetic samples, respectively. The qualitative analysis of cosmetic samples showed that lead is the most toxic element found in eyebrow paint samples.

  10. Distribution of blood lead levels in schoolchildren in selected cape ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective. To determine blood lead levels among children attending schools in selected Cape Peninsula suburbs, and to assess the impact of a reduction in the lead content of petrol. Design. A cross-sectional analytical study of children's blood lead levels and associated risk factors. Setting. Selected inner city, suburban, ...

  11. Ecological Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Higher Plants (GMHP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, C.; Damgaard, C.; Kjellsson, G.

    Preface This publication is a first version of a manual identifying the data needs for ecological risk assessment of genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). It is the intention of the authors to stimulate further discussion of what data are needed in order to conduct a proper ecological risk...... of the project Biotechnology: elements in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. December 1999 Christian Kjær Introduction In ecological risk assessment of transgenic plants, information on a wide range of subjects is needed for an effective and reliable assessment procedure...... in the amendment to the directive. This report suggests a structured way to identify the type of data needed to perform a sound ecological risk assessment for genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). The identified data types are intended to support the evaluation of the following risks: risk of invasion...

  12. PERSONAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FACTORS SIGNIFICANTLY ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED BLOOD LEAD LEVELS IN RURAL THAI CHILDREN.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaddiwudhipong, Witaya; Kavinum, Suporn; Papwijitsil, Ratchadaporn; Tontiwattanasap, Worawit; Khunyotying, Wanlee; Umpan, Jiraporn; BoonthuM, Ratchaneekorn; Kaewnate, Yingyot; Boonmee, Sasis; Thongchub, Winai; Rodsung, Thassanee

    2014-11-01

    A community-based study was conducted to determine personal risk factors and environmental sources of lead exposure for elevated blood lead levels (≥ 10 µg/dl, EBLLs) among rural children living at the Thailand-Myanmar border in Tak Province, northwestern Thailand. Six hundred ninety-five children aged 1-14 years old were screened for BLLs. Environmental specimens for lead measurements included samples of water from the streams, taps, and household containers, house floor dust, and foods. Possible lead release from the cooking ware was determined using the leaching method with acetic acid. The overall prevalence of EBLLs was 47.1% and the geometric mean level of blood lead was 9.16 µg/dl. Personal risk factors significantly associated with EBLLs included being male, younger age, anemia, and low weight-for-age. Significant environmental risk factors were exposure to a lead-acid battery of solar energy system and use of a non-certified metal cooking pot. Some families whose children had high BLLs reported production of lead bullets from the used batteries at home. About one-third of the house dust samples taken near batteries contained lead content above the recommended value, compared with none of those taken from other areas and from the houses with no batteries. The metal pots were safe for cooking rice but might be unsafe for acidic food preparation. Both nutritional intervention and lead exposure prevention programs are essential to reduce EBLLs in this population.

  13. New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

    2011-12-01

    Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

  14. Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horie, Seichi

    2010-09-01

    Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  15. Occupational Health Policies on Risk Assessment in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seichi Horie

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law of Japan requires abnormalities identifi ed in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording “employers shall endeavor.” Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifi es criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer signifi cant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, fi nancial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  16. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  17. Bioassays for risk assessment of coal conversion products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schacht, S.; Sinder, C.; Pfeifer, F.; Klein, J. [DMT-Gesellschaft fuer Forschung und Pruefung mbH, Essen (Germany)

    1999-07-01

    Traditional as well as biotechnological processing coal leads to complex mixtures of products. Besides chemical and physical characterization, which provides the information for product application, there is a need for bioassays to monitor properties that are probably toxic, mutagenic or cancerogenic. Investigations carried out focused on the selection, adaptation and validation of bioassays for the sensitive estimation of toxic effects. Organisms like bacteria, Daphnia magna and Scenedesmus subspicatus, representing different complexities in the biosphere, were selected as test systems for ecotoxicological and mutagenicity studies. The results obtained indicate that bioassays are, in principle, suitable tools for characterization and evaluation of coal-derived substances and bioconversion products. Using coal products, coal-relevant model compounds and bioconversion products, data for risk assessment are presented. (orig.)

  18. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  19. Thermal extremes mortality risk assessment in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Canário

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The impact of heat waves on mortality has been the subject of numerous studies and the focus of attention of various national and international governmental bodies. In the summer of 2003 alone, which was exceptionally hot, the number of deaths in 12 European countries increased by 70,000. The overall trend of warming will lead to an increase in frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves and to an increase in heat related mortality. The need to assess the risk of death due to extreme heat, at a detailed spatial scale, has determined the implementation of a research project based on a general model of risk for potentially destructive natural phenomena; the model uses the relationship between hazard and vulnerability and was designed primarily for urban areas. The major hazardous meteorological variables are those that determine the thermal complex (air temperature, radiative temperature, wind and humidity and the variables related to air quality (mainly ozone and Particulate matter. Vulnerability takes into account the population sensitivity (at various spatial scales and their exposure to thermal extremes.

  20. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  1. Supplementing quantitative risk assessments with a stage addressing the risk understanding of the decision maker

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative probabilistic risk assessment produces a conditional risk description given the knowledge of the analysts (formulated to a large extent through assumptions). However, important aspects of the risk may be concealed in the background knowledge of the analyst and the assumptions. This paper discusses this issue, the main purpose being to present a two-stage risk assessment approach where the second stage addresses the risk understanding of the decision maker. This second-stage is to a large extent qualitative. The approach is novel with its separation between the analysts' conditional risk descriptions using probability judgments, and the decision maker's risk understanding. The approach aims at improving the use of risk assessment in practical decision making by ensuring that the results of the risk assessments are properly interpreted and the key aspects of risk, uncertainty and knowledge are brought to attention for the decision makers. Examples are used to illustrate the approach. - Highlights: • A quantitative risk assessment produces a conditional risk description. • The decision maker (DM) needs to address risk beyond this description. • The paper presents a related two-stage process, covering analyst and DM judgments. • The second stage relates to the DM's risk understanding. • Strength of knowledge judgments are included in both stages.

  2. Automatic breast cancer risk assessment from digital mammograms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karemore, Gopal Raghunath; Brandt, Sami; Karssemeijer, N

    Purpose: Textural characteristics of the breast tissue structure on mammogram have been shown to improve breast cancer risk assessment in several large studies. Currently, however, the texture is not used to assess risk in standard clinical procedures or involved in general breast cancer risk ass...

  3. Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.

    2000-01-01

    Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews

  4. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment in the nuclear power industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fullwood, R.R.; Hall, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    This book describes the more important improvements in risk assessment methodology developed over the last decade. The book covers the following areas - a general view of risk pertaining to nuclear power, mathematics necessary to understand the text, a concise overview of the light water reactors and their features for protecting the public, probabilities and consequences calculated to form risk assessment to the plant, and 34 applications of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the power generation industry. There is a glossary of acronyms and unusual words and a list of references. (author)

  6. 78 FR 64428 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for Activities...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-29

    .... FDA-2013-N-1043] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for... entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for Activities...(n) of the FD&C Act. II. Qualitative Risk Assessment As explained in the draft RA, we conducted the...

  7. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  8. Ignoring correlation in uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in life cycle assessment: what is the risk?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groen, E.A., E-mail: Evelyne.Groen@gmail.com [Wageningen University, P.O. Box 338, Wageningen 6700 AH (Netherlands); Heijungs, R. [Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, Amsterdam 1081 HV (Netherlands); Leiden University, Einsteinweg 2, Leiden 2333 CC (Netherlands)

    2017-01-15

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an established tool to quantify the environmental impact of a product. A good assessment of uncertainty is important for making well-informed decisions in comparative LCA, as well as for correctly prioritising data collection efforts. Under- or overestimation of output uncertainty (e.g. output variance) will lead to incorrect decisions in such matters. The presence of correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, can increase or decrease the the output variance. However, most LCA studies that include uncertainty analysis, ignore correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation, which may lead to incorrect conclusions. Two approaches to include correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation and global sensitivity analysis were studied: an analytical approach and a sampling approach. The use of both approaches is illustrated for an artificial case study of electricity production. Results demonstrate that both approaches yield approximately the same output variance and sensitivity indices for this specific case study. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the analytical approach can be used to quantify the risk of ignoring correlations between input parameters during uncertainty propagation in LCA. We demonstrate that: (1) we can predict if including correlations among input parameters in uncertainty propagation will increase or decrease output variance; (2) we can quantify the risk of ignoring correlations on the output variance and the global sensitivity indices. Moreover, this procedure requires only little data. - Highlights: • Ignoring correlation leads to under- or overestimation of the output variance. • We demonstrated that the risk of ignoring correlation can be quantified. • The procedure proposed is generally applicable in life cycle assessment. • In some cases, ignoring correlation has a minimal effect on decision-making tools.

  9. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  10. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  11. Hormesis in Regulatory risk assessment - Science and Science Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, George

    2011-01-01

    This brief commentary will argue that whether hormesis is considered in regulatory risk assessment is a matter less of science than of science policy. I will first discuss the distinction between science and science policy and their roles in regulatory risk assessment. Then I will focus on factors that influence science policy, especially as it relates to the conduct of risk assessments to inform regulatory decisions, with a focus on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The key questions will then be how does hormesis interact with current concepts of science and science policy for risk assessment? Finally, I look ahead to factors that may increase, or decrease, the likelihood of hormesis being incorporated into regulatory risk assessment.

  12. Investigation and assessment of lead slag concrete as nuclear shields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaghloul, Y.R.

    2009-01-01

    The present work is concerned with the efficiency of heavy weight concrete as a shielding material in constructing nuclear installations as well as for radioactive wastes disposal facilities.In this context, lead slag was used as a replacement for fine aggregates in heavy concrete shields that include local heavy weight aggregates (namely; barite and ilmenite) as well as normal concrete includes dolomite and sand as coarse and fine aggregates, as a reference. The effect of different percentages of lead slag was investigated to assess the produced lead slag concrete as a nuclear shielding material. The different properties (physical, mechanical and nuclear) of the produced lead slag concrete were investigated. The results obtained showed that increasing the lead slag percentage improving the investigated properties of the different concrete mixes. In addition, ilmenite concrete with 20% lead slag showed the best results for all the investigated properties.

  13. Assessment of professional risk caused by heating microclimate in the process of un-derground mining

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    М. Л. Рудаков

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews the possibility to apply probit-function to assess professional risks of underground mining under conditions of heating microclimate. Operations under conditions of heating microclimate, whose parameters exceed threshold criteria, can lead to dehydration, fainting and heat stroke for mine workers. Basing on the results of medico-biological research on the effects of microclimate on human body, the authors have assessed probabilistic nature of excessive heat accumulation depending on heat stress index.Using Shapiro-Wilk statistics, an assessment has been carried out in order to test correspondence of experimental data on heat accumulation in the human body to the normal law of distribution for different values of heat stress index, measured in the process of underground mining operations under conditions of heating microclimate.The paper justifies construction of a probit-model to assess professional risks caused by overheating for various types of underground mining operations, depending on their intensity.Modeling results have been verified by way of comparison with a currently used deterministic model of body overheating. Taking into account satisfactory convergence of results, the authors suggest using probit-model to assess professional risks of overheating, as this model allows to obtain a continuous dependency between professional risk and heat stress index, which in its own turn facilitates a more justified approach to the selection of measures to upgrade working conditions of personnel.

  14. 76 FR 37770 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-28

    ...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... available for public comment the Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our draft... plant pest risk assessment are also available on the APHIS Web site at: http://www.aphis.usda.gov/brs...

  15. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  16. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roger Skinner

    1992-01-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential

  17. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skinner, Roger

    1992-07-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential.

  18. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  19. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  20. Health impact from lead: IQ decrement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Easterly, C

    1994-07-01

    The effects of lead, once it is in the body, are the same no matter how it enters. Exposure to lead is especially dangerous for unborn children, with high levels associated with premature birth and low birth weight. Young children are at risk because they swallow lead when they put toys or other objects soiled with lead-containing dirt in their mouths. A greater proportion of the lead ingested by children enters their bodies than enters the bodies of adults. For infants and young children, lead exposure has been shown in some studies to decrease intelligence (IQ) scores, slow growth, and cause hearing problems. These effects can last as children get older and can be permanent. Realistic risk assessment for lead-induced neurobehavioral deficit in environmentally exposed children must stem from consistent results from independent studies, as well as the documentation of dose-response relationships. At present, studies investigating such effects have not been definitive. However, taken as a whole, there is growing support for the absence of a threshold for adverse effects in exposed children. Summary of selected recent studies and the obtained data are analyzed.