WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment tools

  1. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  2. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  3. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  4. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  5. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  6. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  7. Risk Informed Design Using Integrated Vehicle Rapid Assessment Tools

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A successful proof of concept was performed in FY 2012 integrating the Envision tool for parametric estimates of vehicle mass and the Rapid Response Risk Assessment...

  8. Risk assessment: tools, techniques, and their applications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ostrom, Lee T; Wilhelmsen, Cheryl A

    2012-01-01

    .... The central task of the risk assessor is predicting the success of a project. This includes isolating the entire spectrum of adverse events that can derail a project or threaten the health and safety of individuals, organizations, and the environment...

  9. Current established risk assessment methodologies and tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan; Hartel, Pieter H.; Pieters, Wolter; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2013-01-01

    The technology behind information systems evolves at an exponential rate, while at the same time becoming more and more ubiquitous. This brings with it an implicit rise in the average complexity of systems as well as the number of external interactions. In order to allow a proper assessment of the

  10. Chemical Risk Assessment Screening Tool of a Global Chemical Company

    OpenAIRE

    Evelyn Tjoe-Nij; Christophe Rochin; Nathalie Berne; Alessandro Sassi; Antoine Leplay

    2018-01-01

    Background: This paper describes a simple-to-use and reliable screening tool called Critical Task Exposure Screening (CTES), developed by a chemical company. The tool assesses if the exposure to a chemical for a task is likely to be within acceptable levels. Methods: CTES is a Microsoft Excel tool, where the inhalation risk score is calculated by relating the exposure estimate to the corresponding occupational exposure limit (OEL) or occupational exposure band (OEB). The inhalation exposure i...

  11. An Integrative Review of Pediatric Fall Risk Assessment Tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiGerolamo, Kimberly; Davis, Katherine Finn

    Patient fall prevention begins with accurate risk assessment. However, sustained improvements in prevention and quality of care include use of validated fall risk assessment tools (FRATs). The goal of FRATs is to identify patients at highest risk. Adult FRATs are often borrowed from to create tools for pediatric patients. Though factors associated with pediatric falls in the hospital setting are similar to those in adults, such as mobility, medication use, and cognitive impairment, adult FRATs and the factors associated with them do not adequately assess risk in children. Articles were limited to English language, ages 0-21years, and publish date 2006-2015. The search yielded 22 articles. Ten were excluded as the population was primarily adult or lacked discussion of a FRAT. Critical appraisal and findings were synthesized using the Johns Hopkins Nursing evidence appraisal system. Twelve articles relevant to fall prevention in the pediatric hospital setting that discussed fall risk assessment and use of a FRAT were reviewed. Comparison between and accuracy of FRATs is challenged when different classifications, definitions, risk stratification, and inclusion criteria are used. Though there are several pediatric FRATs published in the literature, none have been found to be reliable and valid across institutions and diverse populations. This integrative review highlights the importance of choosing a FRAT based on an institution's identified risk factors and validating the tool for one's own patient population as well as using the tool in conjunction with nursing clinical judgment to guide interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. The comparative risk assessment framework and tools (CRAFT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southern Research Station. USDA Forest Service

    2010-01-01

    To help address these challenges, the USDA Forest Service’s Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center (EFETAC) and the University of North Carolina Asheville’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC) designed a planning framework, called the Comparative Risk Assessment Framework and Tools (CRAFT). CRAFT is...

  13. Qualitative risk assessment as a remediation management tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knutson, D.E.

    1991-01-01

    The technique used to complete this thesis utilizes existing NRC and EPA guidance on health-based risk to qualitatively prioritize preliminary assessments and provide a tool for the direction and management of remediation activities. This method is intended as a decision making tool to aid in prioritizing the remediation effort and manage the remedial investigation and feasibility study (RI/FS) process. It is not a replacement for the RI/FS. The methodology for qualitative risk assessment utilizes data gathered in preliminary assessments and calculates the health-based hazards and consequences from contaminants found at each individual location. The health-based qualitative risk indicated that number-sign 6 fuel oil, carbon tetrachloride, depleted uranium, and enriched uranium were the contaminants of major concern, in that order. Plutonium ranked approximately sixth in the contaminant of concern priority. 38 refs., 1 fig., 9 tabs

  14. Chemical Risk Assessment Screening Tool of a Global Chemical Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evelyn Tjoe-Nij

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: This paper describes a simple-to-use and reliable screening tool called Critical Task Exposure Screening (CTES, developed by a chemical company. The tool assesses if the exposure to a chemical for a task is likely to be within acceptable levels. Methods: CTES is a Microsoft Excel tool, where the inhalation risk score is calculated by relating the exposure estimate to the corresponding occupational exposure limit (OEL or occupational exposure band (OEB. The inhalation exposure is estimated for tasks by preassigned ART1.5 activity classes and modifying factors. Results: CTES requires few inputs. The toxicological data, including OELs, OEBs, and vapor pressure are read from a database. Once the substance is selected, the user specifies its concentration and then chooses the task description and its duration. CTES has three outputs that may trigger follow-up: (1 inhalation risk score; (2 identification of the skin hazard with the skin warnings for local and systemic adverse effects; and (3 status for carcinogenic, mutagenic, or reprotoxic effects. Conclusion: The tool provides an effective way to rapidly screen low-concern tasks, and quickly identifies certain tasks involving substances that will need further review with, nevertheless, the appropriate conservatism. This tool shows that the higher-tier ART1.5 inhalation exposure assessment model can be included effectively in a screening tool. After 2 years of worldwide extensive use within the company, CTES is well perceived by the users, including the shop floor management, and it fulfills its target of screening tool. Keywords: occupational exposure, risk assessment, risk management

  15. Development of risk assessment tool for foundry workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, G Madhan; Prasad, P S S; Mokkapati, Anil Kumar; Venkataraman, G

    2008-01-01

    Occupational ill-health and work-related disorders are predominant in manufacturing industries due to the inevitable presence of manual work even after several waves of industrial automation and technological advancements. Ergonomic risk factors and musculoskeletal disorders like low-back symptoms have been noted amongst foundry workers. The purpose of this study was to formulate and develop a Physical Effort Index to assess risk factor. The questionnaire tool applicable to foundry environment has been designed and validated. The data recorded through survey across the foundries has been subjected to regression analysis to correlate between proposed physical effort index and the standard Borg's Ratings of Perceived Exertion (RPE) scale. The physical efforts of sixty seven workers in various foundry shop floors were assessed subjectively. The 'Job factors' and 'Work environment' were the two major parameters considered in assessing the worker discomfort level at workplace. A relation between Borg's RPE scale and the above two parameters were arrived at, through regression analysis. The study demonstrates the prevalence of risk factors amongst foundry workers and the effectiveness of the proposed index in estimating the risk factor levels. RELEVANCE TO THE INDUSTRY: The proposed tool will assist foundry supervisors and managers to assess the risk factors and helps in better understanding of the workplace to avoid work-related disorders, ensuring better output.

  16. Strategic Risk Assessment: A Decision Tool for Complex Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pollard, Simon; Duarte-Davidson, Raquel; Yearsley, Roger [Environment Agency, London (United Kingdom). National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal; Kemp, Ray; Crawford, Mark [Galson Sciences Limited, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Reporting on the state of the environment often requires policy makers and regulators to prioritise a range of diverse environmental issues for the purpose of directing future action on environmental protection and improvement. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of analysis can be disparate, it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy comparison. Nevertheless, strategic judgements are required on the significance of impacts from various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties. Prioritising issues forces a discussion among stakeholders of the relative significance of 'environmental harm' from pressures acting on various receptors in the environment. Discussions of this sort rapidly evolve into a discourse on risks and values. In an attempt to help systematise these discussions and provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has initiated developmental research on strategic risk assessment. The tools developed under this research use the concept of 'environmental harm' as a common currency, viewed from technical, social and economic perspectives, to analyse impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate is an understanding and analysis both of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to the actual or potential environmental harm. Recent developments in this approach allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk management decisions. Here, we present recent developments in the strategic risk assessment research tool, as tested by case studies from state of the environment reporting and the analysis of a regional environmental plan. We discuss its relative advantages and limitations and its

  17. Strategic Risk Assessment: A Decision Tool for Complex Decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollard, Simon; Duarte-Davidson, Raquel; Yearsley, Roger

    2001-01-01

    Reporting on the state of the environment often requires policy makers and regulators to prioritise a range of diverse environmental issues for the purpose of directing future action on environmental protection and improvement. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of analysis can be disparate, it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy comparison. Nevertheless, strategic judgements are required on the significance of impacts from various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties. Prioritising issues forces a discussion among stakeholders of the relative significance of 'environmental harm' from pressures acting on various receptors in the environment. Discussions of this sort rapidly evolve into a discourse on risks and values. In an attempt to help systematise these discussions and provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has initiated developmental research on strategic risk assessment. The tools developed under this research use the concept of 'environmental harm' as a common currency, viewed from technical, social and economic perspectives, to analyse impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate is an understanding and analysis both of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to the actual or potential environmental harm. Recent developments in this approach allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk management decisions. Here, we present recent developments in the strategic risk assessment research tool, as tested by case studies from state of the environment reporting and the analysis of a regional environmental plan. We discuss its relative advantages and limitations and its wider potential role

  18. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  19. A generic rabies risk assessment tool to support surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Michael P; Hernández-Jover, Marta

    2015-06-01

    The continued spread of rabies in Indonesia poses a risk to human and animal populations in the remaining free islands, as well as the neighbouring rabies-free countries of Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and Australia. Here we describe the development of a generic risk assessment tool which can be used to rapidly determine the vulnerability of rabies-free islands, so that scarce resources can be targeted to surveillance activities and the sensitivity of surveillance systems increased. The tool was developed by integrating information on the historical spread of rabies, anthropological studies, and the opinions of local animal health experts. The resulting tool is based on eight critical parameters that can be estimated from the literature, expert opinion, observational studies and information generated from routine surveillance. In the case study presented, results generated by this tool were most sensitive to the probability that dogs are present on private and fishing boats and it was predicted that rabies-infection (one infected case) might occur in a rabies-free island (upper 95% prediction interval) with a volume of 1000 boats movements. With 25,000 boat movements, the median of the probability distribution would be equal to one infected case, with an upper 95% prediction interval of six infected cases. This tool could also be used at the national-level to guide control and eradication plans. An initial recommendation from this study is to develop a surveillance programme to determine the likelihood that boats transport dogs, for example by port surveillance or regularly conducted surveys of fisherman and passenger ferries. However, the illegal nature of dog transportation from rabies-infected to rabies-free islands is a challenge for developing such surveillance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  1. Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Paul S.

    2002-01-01

    Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

  2. Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...

  3. Increased fracture risk assessed by fracture risk assessment tool in Greek patients with Crohn's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzoudis, Sotirios; Zavos, Christos; Damilakis, John; Neratzoulakis, John; Dimitriadi, Daphne Anna; Roussomoustakaki, Maria; Kouroumalis, Elias A; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E

    2013-01-01

    The World Health Organization has recently developed the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) based on clinical risk factors and bone mineral density (BMD) for evaluation of the 10-year probability of a hip or a major osteoporotic fracture. The aim of this study was to evaluate the use of the FRAX tool in Greek patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). FRAX scores were applied to 134 IBD patients [68 Crohn's disease (CD); 66 ulcerative colitis (UC)] who underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans at the femoral neck and lumbar spine during the period 2007-2012. Calculation of the FRAX scores, with or without BMD, was made through a web-based probability model used to compute individual fracture probabilities according to specific clinical risk factors. The median 10-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture for IBD patients based on clinical data was 7.1%, and including the BMD was 6.2%. A significant overestimation with the first method was found (P = 0.01). Both scores with and without BMD were significantly higher in CD patients compared with UC patients (P = 0.02 and P = 0.005, respectively). The median 10-year probability of hip fracture based on clinical data was 0.8%, and including the BMD was 0.9%. The score with use of BMD was significantly higher in CD compared with UC patients (P = 0.04). CD patients have significantly higher FRAX scores and possibly fracture risk compared with UC patients. The clinical FRAX score alone seems to overestimate the risk of osteoporotic fracture in Greek IBD patients.

  4. New Tools and Methods for Assessing Risk-Management Strategies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vendlinski, Terry P; Munro, Allen; Chung, Gregory K; De la Cruz, Girlie C; Pizzini, Quentin A; Bewley, William L; Stuart, Gale; Baker, Eva L

    2004-01-01

    .... The Decision Analysis Tool (DAT) allowed subjects to use Expected Value and Multi-attribute Utility Theories to evaluate the risks and benefits of various acquisition alternatives, and allowed us to monitor the process subjects used...

  5. Risk assessment tools to identify women with increased risk of osteoporotic fracture. Complexity or simplicity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Friis-Holmberg, Teresa; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2013-01-01

    A huge number of risk assessment tools have been developed. Far from all have been validated in external studies, more of them have absence of methodological and transparent evidence and few are integrated in national guidelines. Therefore, we performed a systematic review to provide an overview...... of existing valid and reliable risk assessment tools for prediction of osteoporotic fractures. Additionally, we aimed to determine if the performance each tool was sufficient for practical use and lastly to examine whether the complexity of the tools influenced their discriminative power. We searched Pub......Med, Embase and Cochrane databases for papers and evaluated these with respect to methodological quality using the QUADAS checklist. A total of 48 tools were identified, 20 had been externally validated, however only 6 tools had been tested more than once in a population-based setting with acceptable...

  6. Transcultural adaptation of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Maria Carmen; Iwamoto, Viviane Ernesto; Latorre, Maria do Rosário Dias de Oliveira; Noronha, Adriana Moreira; Oliveira, Ana Paula de Sousa; Cardoso, Carlos Eduardo Alves; Marques, Ifigenia Augusta Braga; Vendramim, Patrícia; Lopes, Paula Cristina; Sant'Ana, Thais Helena Saes de

    2016-08-29

    to perform the transcultural adaptation and content validity analysis of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool to assess both fall risk and fall-related injury risk for hospitalized elderly in Brazil. the transcultural adaptation consisted of translating the scale to Portuguese (Brazil), back-translating it into its language of origin, establishing a consensus version, and having an expert committee verify its transcultural equivalence. Content assessment was conducted by a committee of judges, ending with the calculation of the items and scales' content validity index. Nurses tested the tool. the scale's translated version went through two evaluation rounds by the judges, based on which, the items with unsatisfactory performance were changed. The content validity index for the items was ≥80.0% and the global index 97.1%. The experimental application showed the scale is user-friendly. the scale presents valid content for the assessment of fall risk and risk of fall-related injuries and is easy to use, with the potential to contribute to the proper identification of risks and the establishment of care actions. realizar a adaptação transcultural para uso no Brasil e a avaliação da validade de conteúdo da Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool para avaliação de risco de quedas e de danos por quedas em pacientes adultos hospitalizados. adaptação transcultural consistiu na tradução da escala para a língua portuguesa (Brasil), retrotradução para a língua de origem, versão de consenso e análise da equivalência transcultural por um comitê de especialistas. A avaliação do conteúdo foi realizada por meio de um comitê de juízes, finalizando com o cálculo do índice de validade de conteúdo dos itens e da escala. Foi realizada a aplicação experimental do instrumento por enfermeiros. a versão traduzida da escala passou por duas rodadas de avaliação pelos juízes, a partir das quais os itens com desempenho insatisfatório foram modificados

  7. The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX® score in subclinical hyperthyroidism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polovina Snežana

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX® score is the 10-year estimated risk calculation tool for bone fracture that includes clinical data and hip bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to elucidate the ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and post-menopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Methods. The bone mineral density (by DXA, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH level, free thyroxine (fT4 level, thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb titre, osteocalcin and beta-cross-laps were measured in 27 pre- and post-menopausal women with newly discovered subclinical hyperthyroidism [age 58.85 ± 7.83 years, body mass index (BMI 27.89 ± 3.46 kg/m2, menopause onset in 46.88 ± 10.21 years] and 51 matched euthyroid controls (age 59.69 ± 5.72 years, BMI 27.68 ± 4.66 kg/m2, menopause onset in 48.53 ± 4.58 years. The etiology of subclinical hyperthyroisims was autoimmune thyroid disease or toxic goiter. FRAX® score calculation was performed in both groups. Results. In the group with subclinical hyperthyroidism the main FRAX® score was significantly higher than in the controls (6.50 ± 1.58 vs 4.35 ± 1.56 respectively; p = 0.015. The FRAX® score for hip was also higher in the evaluated group than in the controls (1.33 ± 3.92 vs 0.50 ± 0.46 respectively; p = 0.022. There was no correlations between low TSH and fracture risk (p > 0.05. The ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal female subjects (p < 0.001 is presented by the area under the curve (AUC plotted via ROC analysis. The determined FRAX score cut-off value by this analysis was 6%, with estimated sensitivity and specificity of 95% and 75.9%, respectively. Conclusion. Pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism have higher FRAX® scores and thus

  8. Quantitative risk assessment: an emerging tool for emerging foodborne pathogens.

    OpenAIRE

    Lammerding, A. M.; Paoli, G. M.

    1997-01-01

    New challenges to the safety of the food supply require new strategies for evaluating and managing food safety risks. Changes in pathogens, food preparation, distribution, and consumption, and population immunity have the potential to adversely affect human health. Risk assessment offers a framework for predicting the impact of changes and trends on the provision of safe food. Risk assessment models facilitate the evaluation of active or passive changes in how foods are produced, processed, d...

  9. An ensemble model of QSAR tools for regulatory risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradeep, Prachi; Povinelli, Richard J; White, Shannon; Merrill, Stephen J

    2016-01-01

    Quantitative structure activity relationships (QSARs) are theoretical models that relate a quantitative measure of chemical structure to a physical property or a biological effect. QSAR predictions can be used for chemical risk assessment for protection of human and environmental health, which makes them interesting to regulators, especially in the absence of experimental data. For compatibility with regulatory use, QSAR models should be transparent, reproducible and optimized to minimize the number of false negatives. In silico QSAR tools are gaining wide acceptance as a faster alternative to otherwise time-consuming clinical and animal testing methods. However, different QSAR tools often make conflicting predictions for a given chemical and may also vary in their predictive performance across different chemical datasets. In a regulatory context, conflicting predictions raise interpretation, validation and adequacy concerns. To address these concerns, ensemble learning techniques in the machine learning paradigm can be used to integrate predictions from multiple tools. By leveraging various underlying QSAR algorithms and training datasets, the resulting consensus prediction should yield better overall predictive ability. We present a novel ensemble QSAR model using Bayesian classification. The model allows for varying a cut-off parameter that allows for a selection in the desirable trade-off between model sensitivity and specificity. The predictive performance of the ensemble model is compared with four in silico tools (Toxtree, Lazar, OECD Toolbox, and Danish QSAR) to predict carcinogenicity for a dataset of air toxins (332 chemicals) and a subset of the gold carcinogenic potency database (480 chemicals). Leave-one-out cross validation results show that the ensemble model achieves the best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity (accuracy: 83.8 % and 80.4 %, and balanced accuracy: 80.6 % and 80.8 %) and highest inter-rater agreement [kappa ( κ ): 0

  10. Risk monitor - a tool for operational safety assessment risk monitor - user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hari Prasad, M.; Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.

    2006-06-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment has become a key tool as on today to identify and understand Nuclear Power Plant vulnerabilities. As a result of the availability of these PSA studies, there is a desire to use them to enhance plant safety and to operate the nuclear stations in the most efficient manner. Risk Monitor is a PC based tool, which computes the real time safety level and assists plant personnel to manage day-to-day activities. Risk Monitor is a PC based user friendly software tool used for modification and re-analysis of a nuclear Power plant. Operation of Risk Monitor is based on PSA methods for assisting in day to day applications. Risk Monitoring programs can assess the risk profile and are used to optimize the operation of Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time. This report presents the background activities of Risk Monitor, its application areas and the step by step procedure for the user.to interact with the software. This software can be used with the PSA model of any Nuclear Power Plant. (author)

  11. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  12. Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

    2001-01-01

    Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

  13. A Successful ED Fall Risk Program Using the KINDER 1 Fall RiskAssessment Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Townsend, Ann B; Valle-Ortiz, Marisol; Sansweet, Tracy

    2016-11-01

    Emergency nurses did not perform falls risk assessments routinely on our ED patients; the instrument used was aimed at inpatients. We identified a need to revise fall assessment practices specific to our emergency department. The purpose of the performance improvement project was to reduce ED falls and evaluate the use of an ED-specific fall risk tool, the KINDER 1 Fall Risk Assessment. The plan was to establish fall risk assessment practices at point of ED entry and to decrease total falls. We retrospectively reviewed ED fall data for each quarter of 2013, which included risk assessments scores, the total number of falls, and the circumstances of each fall. Using Kotter's framework to guide a successful change process, we implemented the KINDER 1 to assess fall risk. During the first 4 weeks of the project, 937 patients (27%) were identified as high risk for falls using the KINDER 1. During the subsequent 3 quarters, the total number of falls decreased; reported falls without injuries dropped from 0.21 to 0.07 per 1000 patients, and falls with injuries were reduced from 0.21 to 0.0 per 1000 patients. The results of this project represented a valuable step toward achieving our goal to keep ED patients safe from injuries as a result of falls. The findings add to the body of nursing knowledge on the application of clinical-based performance improvement projects to improve patient outcomes and to provide data on the use of the KINDER 1 tool, which has not been extensively tested. Copyright © 2016 Emergency Nurses Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Human factors questionnaire as a tool for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Isaac J.A.L.; Grecco, Claudio H.S.; Carvalho, Paulo V.R.; Mol, Antonio C.A.; Oliveira, Mauro V.; Augusto, Silas C.

    2009-01-01

    The human factors engineering (HFE) as a discipline, and as a process, seeks to discover and to apply knowledge about human capabilities and limitations to system and equipment design, ensuring that the system design, human tasks and work environment are compatible with the sensory, perceptual, cognitive and physical attributes of the personnel who operates systems and equipment. Risk significance considers the magnitude of the consequences (loss of life, material damage, environmental degradation) and the frequency of occurrence of a particular adverse event. The questionnaire design was based on the following definitions: the score and the classification of the nuclear safety risk. The principal benefit of applying an approach based on the risk significance in the development of the questionnaire is to ensure the identification and evaluation of the features of the projects, related to human factors, which affect the nuclear safety risk, the human actions and the safety of the nuclear plant systems. The human factors questionnaire developed in this study will provide valuable support for risk assessment, making possible the identification of design problems that can influence the evaluation of the nuclear safety risk. (author)

  15. Development of an Automated Security Risk Assessment Methodology Tool for Critical Infrastructures.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, Calvin Dell; Roehrig, Nathaniel S.; Torres, Teresa M.

    2008-12-01

    This document presents the security automated Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) prototype tool developed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). This work leverages SNL's capabilities and skills in security risk analysis and the development of vulnerability assessment/risk assessment methodologies to develop an automated prototype security RAM tool for critical infrastructures (RAM-CITM). The prototype automated RAM tool provides a user-friendly, systematic, and comprehensive risk-based tool to assist CI sector and security professionals in assessing and managing security risk from malevolent threats. The current tool is structured on the basic RAM framework developed by SNL. It is envisioned that this prototype tool will be adapted to meet the requirements of different CI sectors and thereby provide additional capabilities.

  16. The Efficacy of Violence Prediction: A Meta-Analytic Comparison of Nine Risk Assessment Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Min; Wong, Stephen C. P.; Coid, Jeremy

    2010-01-01

    Actuarial risk assessment tools are used extensively to predict future violence, but previous studies comparing their predictive accuracies have produced inconsistent findings as a result of various methodological issues. We conducted meta-analyses of the effect sizes of 9 commonly used risk assessment tools and their subscales to compare their…

  17. Surging Seas Risk Finder: A Tool for Local-Scale Flood Risk Assessments in Coastal Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulp, S. A.; Strauss, B.

    2015-12-01

    Local decision makers in coastal cities require accurate, accessible, and thorough assessments of flood exposure risk within their individual municipality, in their efforts to mitigate against damage due to future sea level rise. To fill this need, we have developed Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, an interactive data toolkit which presents our sea level rise and storm surge analysis for every coastal town, city, county, and state within the USA. Using this tool, policy makers can easily zoom in on their local place of interest to receive a detailed flood risk assessment, which synthesizes a wide range of features including total population, socially vulnerable population, housing, property value, road miles, power plants, schools, hospitals, and many other critical facilities. Risk Finder can also be used to identify specific points of interest in danger of exposure at different flood levels. Additionally, this tool provides localized storm surge probabilities and sea level rise projections at tidal gauges along the coast, so that users can quickly understand the risk of flooding in their area over the coming decades.

  18. Measurement of biofilm thickness. An effective Legionella risk assessment tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foret, Christophe [BKG France, Arnage (France); Martemianov, Serguei [Poitiers Univ. (FR). Lab. of Thermal Study (LET); Moscow Univ. (Russian Federation). Frumkin Inst. of Physical Chemistry and Electrochemistry; Hater, Wolfgang [BK Giulini GmbH, Duesseldorf (Germany); Merlet, Nicole; Chaussec, Guenole; Tribollet, Bernard

    2010-02-15

    The best way to prevent the risk of bacterial growth in water systems is to monitor and control the microorganisms (biofilm) attached to pipe walls. Three years of laboratory research led two Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (French National Center for Scientific Research) teams (UMR 6008 and UPR 15) to develop a tool designed to determine the average biofilm thickness. The average biofilm thickness measurements carried out on pilot plants fed with natural water were sufficiently accurate and sensitive to monitor the formation and development of biofilm in a water system and to determine the efficiency of the applied treatments. The implementation of appropriate treatments (type and dose of the treatment product) leads to a significant reduction in or even complete removal of the porous layer on the material surface. A reduction of the attached biomass, measured by the sensor, is connected to a decrease in the density of the bacterial attached to the material (viable flora in the plate count agar environment). (orig.)

  19. The development of a practical tool for risk assessment of manual work – the HAT-tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraker, H. de; Douwes, M.

    2008-01-01

    For the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment we developed a tool to assess the risks of developing complaints of the arm, neck or shoulders during manual work. The tool was developed for every type of organization and is easy to use, does not require measurements other than time and can

  20. A risk assessment tool for contaminated sites in low-permeability fractured media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia; Binning, Philip John; Jørgensen, Peter R.

    2011-01-01

    A risk assessment tool for contaminated sites in low-permeability fractured media is developed, based on simple transient and steady-state analytical solutions. The discrete fracture (DF) tool, which explicitly accounts for the transport along fractures, covers different source geometries...... and history (including secondary sources) and can be applied to a wide range of compounds. The tool successfully simulates published data from short duration column and field experiments. The use for risk assessment is illustrated by three typical risk assessment case studies, involving pesticides...

  1. Implementation of a risk assessment tool based on a probabilistic safety assessment developed for radiotherapy practices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paz, A.; Godinez, V.; Lopez, R.

    2010-10-01

    The present work describes the implementation process and main results of the risk assessment to the radiotherapy practices with Linear Accelerators (Linac), with cobalt 60, and with brachytherapy. These evaluations were made throughout the risk assessment tool for radiotherapy practices SEVRRA (risk evaluation system for radiotherapy), developed at the Mexican National Commission in Nuclear Safety and Safeguards derived from the outcome obtained with the Probabilistic Safety Analysis developed at the Ibero-American Regulators Forum for these radiotherapy facilities. The methodology used is supported by risk matrices method, a mathematical tool that estimates the risk to the patient, radiation workers and public from mechanical failures, mis calibration of the devices, human mistakes, and so. The initiating events are defined as those undesirable events that, together with other failures, can produce a delivery of an over-dose or an under-dose of the medical prescribed dose, to the planned target volume, or a significant dose to non prescribed human organs. Initiating events frequency and reducer of its frequency (actions intended to avoid the accident) are estimated as well as robustness of barriers to those actions, such as mechanical switches, which detect and prevent the accident from occurring. The spectrum of the consequences is parameterized, and the actions performed to reduce the consequences are identified. Based on this analysis, a software tool was developed in order to simplify the evaluations to radiotherapy installations and it has been applied as a first step forward to some Mexican installations, as part of a national implementation process, the final goal is evaluation of all Mexican facilities in the near future. The main target and benefits of the SEVRRA implementation are presented in this paper. (Author)

  2. Implementation of a risk assessment tool based on a probabilistic safety assessment developed for radiotherapy practices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paz, A.; Godinez, V.; Lopez, R., E-mail: abpaz@cnsns.gob.m [Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias, Dr. Barragan No. 779, Col. Narvarte, 03020 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)

    2010-10-15

    The present work describes the implementation process and main results of the risk assessment to the radiotherapy practices with Linear Accelerators (Linac), with cobalt 60, and with brachytherapy. These evaluations were made throughout the risk assessment tool for radiotherapy practices SEVRRA (risk evaluation system for radiotherapy), developed at the Mexican National Commission in Nuclear Safety and Safeguards derived from the outcome obtained with the Probabilistic Safety Analysis developed at the Ibero-American Regulators Forum for these radiotherapy facilities. The methodology used is supported by risk matrices method, a mathematical tool that estimates the risk to the patient, radiation workers and public from mechanical failures, mis calibration of the devices, human mistakes, and so. The initiating events are defined as those undesirable events that, together with other failures, can produce a delivery of an over-dose or an under-dose of the medical prescribed dose, to the planned target volume, or a significant dose to non prescribed human organs. Initiating events frequency and reducer of its frequency (actions intended to avoid the accident) are estimated as well as robustness of barriers to those actions, such as mechanical switches, which detect and prevent the accident from occurring. The spectrum of the consequences is parameterized, and the actions performed to reduce the consequences are identified. Based on this analysis, a software tool was developed in order to simplify the evaluations to radiotherapy installations and it has been applied as a first step forward to some Mexican installations, as part of a national implementation process, the final goal is evaluation of all Mexican facilities in the near future. The main target and benefits of the SEVRRA implementation are presented in this paper. (Author)

  3. Tools for assessing fall risk in the elderly: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Seong-Hi

    2018-01-01

    The prevention of falls among the elderly is arguably one of the most important public health issues in today's aging society. The aim of this study was to assess which tools best predict the risk of falls in the elderly. Electronic searches were performed using Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, CINAHL, etc., using the following keywords: "fall risk assessment", "elderly fall screening", and "elderly mobility scale". The QUADAS-2 was applied to assess the internal validity of the diagnostic studies. Selected studies were meta-analyzed with MetaDisc 1.4. A total of 33 studies were eligible out of the 2,321 studies retrieved from selected databases. Twenty-six assessment tools for fall risk were used in the selected articles, and they tended to vary based on the setting. The fall risk assessment tools currently used for the elderly did not show sufficiently high predictive validity for differentiating high and low fall risks. The Berg Balance scale and Mobility Interaction Fall chart showed stable and high specificity, while the Downton Fall Risk Index, Hendrich II Fall Risk Model, St. Thomas's Risk Assessment Tool in Falling elderly inpatients, Timed Up and Go test, and Tinetti Balance scale showed the opposite results. We concluded that rather than a single measure, two assessment tools used together would better evaluate the characteristics of falls by the elderly that can occur due to a multitude of factors and maximize the advantages of each for predicting the occurrence of falls.

  4. Falls risk assessment begins with hello: lessons learned from the use of one home health agency's fall risk tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flemming, Patricia J; Ramsay, Katherine

    2012-10-01

    Identifying older adults at risk for falls is a challenge all home healthcare agencies (HHAs) face. The process of assessing for falls risk begins with the initial home visit. One HHA affiliated with an academic medical center describes its experience in development and use of a Falls Risk Assessment (FRA) tool over a 10-year period. The FRA tool has been modified since initial development to clarify elements of the tool based on research and to reflect changes in the Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) document. The primary purpose of this article is to share a validated falls risk assessment tool to facilitate identification of fall-related risk factors in the homebound population. A secondary purpose is to share lessons learned by the HHA during the 10 years using the FRA.

  5. Comparison of seven fall risk assessment tools in community-dwelling Korean older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Taekyoung; Xiong, Shuping

    2017-03-01

    This study aimed to compare seven widely used fall risk assessment tools in terms of validity and practicality, and to provide a guideline for choosing appropriate fall risk assessment tools for elderly Koreans. Sixty community-dwelling Korean older women (30 fallers and 30 matched non-fallers) were evaluated. Performance measures of all tools were compared between the faller and non-faller groups through two sample t-tests. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves were generated with odds ratios for discriminant analysis. Results showed that four tools had significant discriminative power, and the shortened version of Falls Efficacy Scale (SFES) showed excellent discriminant validity, followed by Berg Balance Scale (BBS) with acceptable discriminant validity. The Mini Balance Evaluation System Test and Timed Up and Go, however, had limited discriminant validities. In terms of practicality, SFES was also excellent. These findings suggest that SFES is the most suitable tool for assessing the fall risks of community-dwelling Korean older women, followed by BBS. Practitioner Summary: There is no general guideline on which fall risk assessment tools are suitable for community-dwelling Korean older women. This study compared seven widely used assessment tools in terms of validity and practicality. Results suggested that the short Falls Efficacy Scale is the most suitable tool, followed by Berg Balance Scale.

  6. Longitudinal Evaluation of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool and Nurses' Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hur, Eun Young; Jin, Yinji; Jin, Taixian; Lee, Sun-Mi

    The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool (JHFRAT) is relatively new in Korea, and it has not been fully evaluated. This study revealed that the JHFRAT had good predictive validity throughout the hospitalization period. However, 2 items (fall history and elimination patterns) on the tool were not determinants of falls in this population. Interestingly, the nurses indicated those 2 items were the most difficult items to assess and needed further training to develop the assessment skills.

  7. Validity and Reliability of Persian Version of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool among Aged People

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    hadi hojati

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Background & Aim: It is crucial to identify aged patients in risk of falls in clinical settings. Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool (JHFRAT is one of most applied international instrument to assess elderly patients for the risk of falls. The aim of this study was to evaluate reliability and internal consistency of the JHFRAT. Methods & Materials: In this cross-sectional study for validity assessment of the tool, WHO’s standard protocol was applied for translation-back translation of the tool. Face and content validity of the tool was confirmed by ten person of expert faculty members for its applicability in clinical setting. In this pilot study, the inclusion criteria were being 60 or more years old, hospitalized in the last 8 hours prior to assessment and in proper cognitive condition assessed by MMSE. Subjects of the study were (n=70 elderly patients who were newly hospitalized in Shahroud Emam Hossein Hospital. Data were analyzed using SPSS software- version 16. Internal consistency of the tool was calculated by Cronbach’s alpha. Results: According to the results of the study Persian version of JHFRAT was a valid tool for application on clinical setting. The Persian version of the tool had Cronbach’s alpha equal to 0/733. Conclusion: Based on the findings of the current study, it can be concluded that Persian version of the JHFRAT is a valid and reliable tool to be applied for assessment of elderly senior citizens on admission in any clinical settings.

  8. Assess/Mitigate Risk through the Use of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to perform an independent assessment of the mitigation of the Constellation Program (CxP) Risk 4421 through the use of computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools. With the cancellation of the CxP, the assessment goals were modified to capture lessons learned and best practices in the use of CASE tools. The assessment goal was to prepare the next program for the use of these CASE tools. The outcome of the assessment is contained in this document.

  9. Use of reliability engineering tools in safety and risk assessment of nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raso, Amanda Laureano; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Marques, Raíssa Oliveira; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Mesquita, Amir Zacarias, E-mail: amandaraso@hotmail.com, E-mail: vasconv@cdtn.br, E-mail: raissaomarques@gmail.com, E-mail: soaresw@cdtn.br, E-mail: amir@cdtn.br [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN/CNEN-MG), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil). Serviço de Tecnologia de Reatores

    2017-07-01

    Safety, reliability and availability are fundamental criteria in design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities, as nuclear power plants. Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments of such facilities are required by regulatory authorities in order to meet licensing regulations, contributing to assure safety, as well as reduce costs and environmental impacts. Probabilistic Risk Assessment has become an important part of licensing requirements of the nuclear power plants in Brazil and in the world. Risk can be defined as a qualitative and/or quantitative assessment of accident sequence frequencies (or probabilities) and their consequences. Risk management is a systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to identify, analyze, plan, implement, control, communicate and document risks. Several tools and computer codes must be combined, in order to estimate both probabilities and consequences of accidents. Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD), and Markov models are examples of evaluation tools that can support the safety and risk assessment for analyzing process systems, identifying potential accidents, and estimating consequences. Because of complexity of such analyzes, specialized computer codes are required, such as the reliability engineering software develop by Reliasoft® Corporation. BlockSim (FTA, RBD and Markov models), RENO (ETA and consequence assessment), Weibull++ (life data and uncertainty analysis), and Xfmea (qualitative risk assessment) are some codes that can be highlighted. This work describes an integrated approach using these tools and software to carry out reliability, safety, and risk assessment of nuclear facilities, as well as, and application example. (author)

  10. Use of reliability engineering tools in safety and risk assessment of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raso, Amanda Laureano; Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Marques, Raíssa Oliveira; Soares, Wellington Antonio; Mesquita, Amir Zacarias

    2017-01-01

    Safety, reliability and availability are fundamental criteria in design, construction and operation of nuclear facilities, as nuclear power plants. Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessments of such facilities are required by regulatory authorities in order to meet licensing regulations, contributing to assure safety, as well as reduce costs and environmental impacts. Probabilistic Risk Assessment has become an important part of licensing requirements of the nuclear power plants in Brazil and in the world. Risk can be defined as a qualitative and/or quantitative assessment of accident sequence frequencies (or probabilities) and their consequences. Risk management is a systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to identify, analyze, plan, implement, control, communicate and document risks. Several tools and computer codes must be combined, in order to estimate both probabilities and consequences of accidents. Event Tree Analysis (ETA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Reliability Block Diagrams (RBD), and Markov models are examples of evaluation tools that can support the safety and risk assessment for analyzing process systems, identifying potential accidents, and estimating consequences. Because of complexity of such analyzes, specialized computer codes are required, such as the reliability engineering software develop by Reliasoft® Corporation. BlockSim (FTA, RBD and Markov models), RENO (ETA and consequence assessment), Weibull++ (life data and uncertainty analysis), and Xfmea (qualitative risk assessment) are some codes that can be highlighted. This work describes an integrated approach using these tools and software to carry out reliability, safety, and risk assessment of nuclear facilities, as well as, and application example. (author)

  11. Software Tool Implementing the Fuzzy AHP Method in Ecological Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radionovs Andrejs

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the increased spread of invasive animals and plants in the territory of Latvia, the necessity of ecological risk assessment related to such kind of spread has grown lately. In cases with sufficient statistical data, the risk assessment may be successfully performed on the basis of statistical methods. The amount of statistical data in the context of spread of invasive animals and plants is pretty poor; therefore, the only method of ecological risk assessment remains subjective judgements of experts. The present paper proposes using a programming tool for ecological risk analysis elaborated by the authors. With the help of this programming tool the method of Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process is implemented. The elements of the pairwise comparison matrix are allowed to be expressed by triangular and trapezoidal fuzzy sets. The presented tool makes it possible to design the fuzzy pair-wise comparison matrix and process the results in a user-friendly way.

  12. Molecular profiling--a tool for addressing emerging gaps in the comparative risk assessment of GMOs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinemann, Jack A; Kurenbach, Brigitta; Quist, David

    2011-10-01

    Assessing the risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is required by both international agreement and domestic legislation. Many view the use of the "omics" tools for profiling classes of molecules as useful in risk assessment, but no consensus has formed on the need or value of these techniques for assessing the risks of all GMOs. In this and many other cases, experts support case-by-case use of molecular profiling techniques for risk assessment. We review the latest research on the applicability and usefulness of molecular profiling techniques for GMO risk assessment. As more and more kinds of GMOs and traits are developed, broader use of molecular profiling in a risk assessment may be required to supplement the comparative approach to risk assessment. The literature-based discussions on the use of profiling appear to have settled on two findings: 1. profiling techniques are reliable and relevant, at least no less so than other techniques used in risk assessment; and 2. although not required routinely, regulators should be aware of when they are needed. The dismissal of routine molecular profiling may be confusing to regulators who then lack guidance on when molecular profiling might be worthwhile. Molecular profiling is an important way to increase confidence in risk assessments if the profiles are properly designed to address relevant risks and are applied at the correct stage of the assessment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Diagnostic Accuracy of Fall Risk Assessment Tools in People With Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, Patricia S.; Mahnken, Jonathan D.; Kluding, Patricia M.

    2012-01-01

    Background Diabetic peripheral neuropathy affects nearly half of individuals with diabetes and leads to increased fall risk. Evidence addressing fall risk assessment for these individuals is lacking. Objective The purpose of this study was to identify which of 4 functional mobility fall risk assessment tools best discriminates, in people with diabetic peripheral neuropathy, between recurrent “fallers” and those who are not recurrent fallers. Design A cross-sectional study was conducted. Setting The study was conducted in a medical research university setting. Participants The participants were a convenience sample of 36 individuals between 40 and 65 years of age with diabetic peripheral neuropathy. Measurements Fall history was assessed retrospectively and was the criterion standard. Fall risk was assessed using the Functional Reach Test, the Timed “Up & Go” Test, the Berg Balance Scale, and the Dynamic Gait Index. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and overall diagnostic accuracy were calculated for each fall risk assessment tool. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to estimate modified cutoff scores for each fall risk assessment tool; indexes then were recalculated. Results Ten of the 36 participants were classified as recurrent fallers. When traditional cutoff scores were used, the Dynamic Gait Index and Functional Reach Test demonstrated the highest sensitivity at only 30%; the Dynamic Gait Index also demonstrated the highest overall diagnostic accuracy. When modified cutoff scores were used, all tools demonstrated improved sensitivity (80% or 90%). Overall diagnostic accuracy improved for all tests except the Functional Reach Test; the Timed “Up & Go” Test demonstrated the highest diagnostic accuracy at 88.9%. Limitations The small sample size and retrospective fall history assessment were limitations of the study. Conclusions Modified cutoff scores improved diagnostic accuracy for 3 of 4 fall risk

  14. Treatment thresholds for osteoporosis and reimbursability criteria: perspectives associated with fracture risk-assessment tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adami, Silvano; Bertoldo, Francesco; Gatti, Davide; Minisola, Giovanni; Rossini, Maurizio; Sinigaglia, Luigi; Varenna, Massimo

    2013-09-01

    The definition of osteoporosis was based for several years on bone mineral density values, which were used by most guidelines for defining treatment thresholds. The availability of tools for the estimation of fracture risk, such as FRAX™ or its adapted Italian version, DeFRA, is providing a way to grade osteoporosis severity. By applying these new tools, the criteria identified in Italy for treatment reimbursability (e.g., "Nota 79") are confirmed as extremely conservative. The new fracture risk-assessment tools provide continuous risk values that can be used by health authorities (or "payers") for identifying treatment thresholds. FRAX estimates the risk for "major osteoporotic fractures," which are not counted in registered fracture trials. Here, we elaborate an algorithm to convert vertebral and nonvertebral fractures to the "major fractures" of FRAX, and this allows a cost-effectiveness assessment for each drug.

  15. A risk assessment tool applied to the study of shale gas resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veiguela, Miguel [Mining, Energy and Materials Engineering School, University of Oviedo (Spain); Hurtado, Antonio; Eguilior, Sonsoles; Recreo, Fernando [Environment Department, CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain); Roqueñi, Nieves [Mining, Energy and Materials Engineering School, University of Oviedo (Spain); Loredo, Jorge, E-mail: jloredo@uniovi.es [Mining, Energy and Materials Engineering School, University of Oviedo (Spain)

    2016-11-15

    The implementation of a risk assessment tool with the capacity to evaluate the risks for health, safety and the environment (HSE) from extraction of non-conventional fossil fuel resources by the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technique can be a useful tool to boost development and progress of the technology and winning public trust and acceptance of this. At the early project stages, the lack of data related the selection of non-conventional gas deposits makes it difficult the use of existing approaches to risk assessment of fluids injected into geologic formations. The qualitative risk assessment tool developed in this work is based on the approach that shale gas exploitation risk is dependent on both the geologic site and the technological aspects. It follows from the Oldenburg's ‘Screening and Ranking Framework (SRF)’ developed to evaluate potential geologic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) storage sites. These two global characteristics: (1) characteristics centered on the natural aspects of the site and (2) characteristics centered on the technological aspects of the Project, have been evaluated through user input of Property values, which define Attributes, which define the Characteristics. In order to carry out an individual evaluation of each of the characteristics and the elements of the model, the tool has been implemented in a spreadsheet. The proposed model has been applied to a site with potential for the exploitation of shale gas in Asturias (northwestern Spain) with tree different technological options to test the approach. - Highlights: • The proposed methodology is a risk assessment useful tool for shale gas projects. • The tool is addressed to the early stages of decision making processes. • The risk assessment of a site is made through a qualitative estimation. • Different weights are assigned to each specific natural and technological property. • The uncertainty associated to the current knowledge is considered.

  16. A risk assessment tool applied to the study of shale gas resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veiguela, Miguel; Hurtado, Antonio; Eguilior, Sonsoles; Recreo, Fernando; Roqueñi, Nieves; Loredo, Jorge

    2016-01-01

    The implementation of a risk assessment tool with the capacity to evaluate the risks for health, safety and the environment (HSE) from extraction of non-conventional fossil fuel resources by the hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technique can be a useful tool to boost development and progress of the technology and winning public trust and acceptance of this. At the early project stages, the lack of data related the selection of non-conventional gas deposits makes it difficult the use of existing approaches to risk assessment of fluids injected into geologic formations. The qualitative risk assessment tool developed in this work is based on the approach that shale gas exploitation risk is dependent on both the geologic site and the technological aspects. It follows from the Oldenburg's ‘Screening and Ranking Framework (SRF)’ developed to evaluate potential geologic carbon dioxide (CO_2) storage sites. These two global characteristics: (1) characteristics centered on the natural aspects of the site and (2) characteristics centered on the technological aspects of the Project, have been evaluated through user input of Property values, which define Attributes, which define the Characteristics. In order to carry out an individual evaluation of each of the characteristics and the elements of the model, the tool has been implemented in a spreadsheet. The proposed model has been applied to a site with potential for the exploitation of shale gas in Asturias (northwestern Spain) with tree different technological options to test the approach. - Highlights: • The proposed methodology is a risk assessment useful tool for shale gas projects. • The tool is addressed to the early stages of decision making processes. • The risk assessment of a site is made through a qualitative estimation. • Different weights are assigned to each specific natural and technological property. • The uncertainty associated to the current knowledge is considered.

  17. Venous Thromboembolism – Risk Assessment Tool and Thromboprophylaxis Policy: A National Survey

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Khan, MI

    2017-01-01

    Venous Thromboembolic (VTE) events in hospitalised patients are associated with significant mortality and morbidity and a major economic burden on the health service. It is well established in the literature that active implementation of a mandatory risk assessment tool and thromboprophylaxis policy reduces the incidence of hospital associated thrombosis (HAT). This study examines the utilization of a VTE risk assessment tool and thromboprophylaxis (TP) policy in Irish hospitals that manage acute admissions. A national survey was distributed to forty acute hospitals throughout Ireland. The response rate was 78% (31\\/40). The results showed that only 26% (n=8\\/31) of acute hospitals in Ireland have a local implemented TP policy. Six (75%) of these eight had a risk assessment tool in conjunction with the TP policy. All respondents who did not report to have a TP policy and risk assessment tool agreed that they should implement VTE prevention policy at their hospital. Based on the data from this survey and evidence from the effectiveness of the VTE prevention programme introduced in the United Kingdom, there is a need for a national risk assessment and thromboprophylaxis policy in Ireland. This change in practice would have the potential to prevent or reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with hospital acquired thrombosis

  18. Validation of an early childhood caries risk assessment tool in a low-income Hispanic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custodio-Lumsden, Christie L; Wolf, Randi L; Contento, Isobel R; Basch, Charles E; Zybert, Patricia A; Koch, Pamela A; Edelstein, Burton L

    2016-03-01

    There is a recognized need for valid risk assessment tools for use by both dental and nondental personnel to identify young children at risk for, or with, precavitated stages of early childhood caries (i.e., early stage decalcifications or white spot lesions).The aim of this study is to establish concurrent criterion validity of "MySmileBuddy" (MSB), a novel technology-assisted ECC risk assessment and behavioral intervention tool against four measures of ECC activity: semi-quantitative assays of salivary mutans streptococci levels, visible quantity of dental plaque, visual evidence of enamel decalcifications, and cavitation status (none, ECC, severe ECC). One hundred eight children 2-6 years of age presenting to a pediatric dental clinic were recruited from a predominantly Spanish-speaking, low-income, urban population. All children received a comprehensive oral examination and saliva culture for assessment of ECC indicators. Their caregivers completed the iPad-based MSB assessment in its entirety (15-20 minutes). MSB calculated both diet and comprehensive ECC risk scores. Associations between all variables were determined using ordinal logistic regression. MSB diet risk scores were significantly positively associated with salivary mutans (P valid risk assessment tool for identifying children with early precursors of cavitations but does not add value in identifying children with extant lesions. © 2015 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  19. BARC-risk monitor- a tool for operational safety assessment in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Hadap, Nikhil

    2000-12-01

    Probabilistic safety assessment has become a key tool as on today to identify and understand nuclear power plant vulnerabilities. As a result of the availability of these PSA studies, there is a desire to use them to enhance plant safety and to operate the nuclear stations in the most efficient manner. Risk monitor is a PC based tool, which computes the real time safety level and assists plant personnel to manage day-to-day activities. Risk monitor is a PC based user friendly software tool used for modification and re-analysis of a nuclear power plant. Operation of risk monitor is based on PSA methods for assisting in day to day applications. Risk monitoring programs can assess the risk profile and are used to optimise the operation of nuclear power plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time. This report presents the background activities of risk monitor, its application areas and also gives the status of such tools in international scenarios. The software is based on the PSA model of Kaiga generating station and would be applicable to similar design configuration. (author)

  20. Applicability of the Existing CVD Risk Assessment Tools to Type II Diabetics in Oman: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulhakeem Al-Rawahi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Patients with type II diabetes (T2DM have an elevated risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD, and it is considered to be a leading cause of morbidity and premature mortality in these patients. Many traditional risk factors such as age, male sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, glycemic control, diabetes duration, renal dysfunction, obesity, and smoking have been studied and identified as independent factors for CVD. Quantifying the risk of CVD among diabetics using the common risk factors in order to plan the treatment and preventive measures is important in the management of these patients as recommended by many clinical guidelines. Therefore, several risk assessment tools have been developed in different parts of the world for this purpose. These include the tools that have been developed for general populations and considered T2DM as a risk factor, and the tools that have been developed for T2DM populations specifically. However, due to the differences in sociodemographic factors and lifestyle patterns, as well as the differences in the distribution of various CVD risk factors in different diabetic populations, the external applicability of these tools on different populations is questionable. This review aims to address the applicability of the existing CVD risk models to the Omani diabetic population.

  1. Nutritional Risk Screening 2002, Short Nutritional Assessment Questionnaire, Malnutrition Screening Tool, and Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool Are Good Predictors of Nutrition Risk in an Emergency Service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabito, Estela Iraci; Marcadenti, Aline; da Silva Fink, Jaqueline; Figueira, Luciane; Silva, Flávia Moraes

    2017-08-01

    There is an international consensus that nutrition screening be performed at the hospital; however, there is no "best tool" for screening of malnutrition risk in hospitalized patients. To evaluate (1) the accuracy of the MUST (Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool), MST (Malnutrition Screening Tool), and SNAQ (Short Nutritional Assessment Questionnaire) in comparison with the NRS-2002 (Nutritional Risk Screening 2002) to identify patients at risk of malnutrition and (2) the ability of these nutrition screening tools to predict morbidity and mortality. A specific questionnaire was administered to complete the 4 screening tools. Outcomes measures included length of hospital stay, transfer to the intensive care unit, presence of infection, and incidence of death. A total of 752 patients were included. The nutrition risk was 29.3%, 37.1%, 33.6%, and 31.3% according to the NRS-2002, MUST, MST, and SNAQ, respectively. All screening tools showed satisfactory performance to identify patients at nutrition risk (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.765-0.808). Patients at nutrition risk showed higher risk of very long length of hospital stay as compared with those not at nutrition risk, independent of the tool applied (relative risk, 1.35-1.78). Increased risk of mortality (2.34 times) was detected by the MUST. The MUST, MST, and SNAQ share similar accuracy to the NRS-2002 in identifying risk of malnutrition, and all instruments were positively associated with very long hospital stay. In clinical practice, the 4 tools could be applied, and the choice for one of them should be made per the particularities of the service.

  2. Fracture risk assessment in postmenopausal women with diabetes: comparison between DeFRA and FRAX tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonaccorsi, Gloria; Messina, Carmelo; Cervellati, Carlo; Maietti, Elisa; Medini, Matilde; Rossini, Maurizio; Massari, Leo; Greco, Pantaleo

    2018-05-01

    This study aimed to compare the performance of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) with that of Derived FRAX (DeFRA) in estimating fracture risk in a cohort of type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) postmenopausal women. One hundred nineteen T2DM postmenopausal women and 118 consecutive healthy postmenopausal women were enrolled. Fracture risk was assessed with FRAX (adjusted or non- for trabecular bone score, TBS) and DeFRA. Bone mineral density (BMD) and TBS were evaluated by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The outcome was the presence of vertebral/non-vertebral fragility fractures (FFs). T2DM women showed higher spinal BMD T-score (p < .05), but lower TBS (p < .05), than controls. Diabetic patients had higher prevalence of FFs compared to controls (p < .05), but no significant difference were found in the scores of any of the predictor tools. Differently, in the T2DM group, the scores of DeFRA, FRAX and adjusted-FRAX were significantly (p < .01 for all) higher in fractured compared with non-fractured women. DeFRA showed the best discriminative power among all fracture risk predictor tools (area under curves: DeFra: 0.89; adjusted FRAX: 0.80; non-adjusted FRAX: 0.73). In summary, all fracture risk assessment tools appeared to be effective in predicting bone fractures in T2DM postmenopausal women, with DeFRA showing a slightly better diagnostic accuracy.

  3. Modelling tools for assessing bioremediation performance and risk of chlorinated solvents in clay tills

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chambon, Julie Claire Claudia

    design are challenging. This thesis presents the development and application of analytical and numerical models to improve our understanding of transport and degradation processes in clay tills, which is crucial for assessing bioremediation performance and risk to groundwater. A set of modelling tools...... to groundwater and bioremediation performance in low-permeability media....

  4. ROBIS: A new tool to assess risk of bias in systematic reviews was developed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiting, Penny; Savović, Jelena; Higgins, Julian P T; Caldwell, Deborah M; Reeves, Barnaby C; Shea, Beverley; Davies, Philippa; Kleijnen, Jos; Churchill, Rachel

    2016-01-01

    To develop ROBIS, a new tool for assessing the risk of bias in systematic reviews (rather than in primary studies). We used four-stage approach to develop ROBIS: define the scope, review the evidence base, hold a face-to-face meeting, and refine the tool through piloting. ROBIS is currently aimed at four broad categories of reviews mainly within health care settings: interventions, diagnosis, prognosis, and etiology. The target audience of ROBIS is primarily guideline developers, authors of overviews of systematic reviews ("reviews of reviews"), and review authors who might want to assess or avoid risk of bias in their reviews. The tool is completed in three phases: (1) assess relevance (optional), (2) identify concerns with the review process, and (3) judge risk of bias. Phase 2 covers four domains through which bias may be introduced into a systematic review: study eligibility criteria; identification and selection of studies; data collection and study appraisal; and synthesis and findings. Phase 3 assesses the overall risk of bias in the interpretation of review findings and whether this considered limitations identified in any of the phase 2 domains. Signaling questions are included to help judge concerns with the review process (phase 2) and the overall risk of bias in the review (phase 3); these questions flag aspects of review design related to the potential for bias and aim to help assessors judge risk of bias in the review process, results, and conclusions. ROBIS is the first rigorously developed tool designed specifically to assess the risk of bias in systematic reviews. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment as a tool to improve safety and explanatory adequacy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoi, Tatsuya

    2015-01-01

    This paper explains the concept of probabilistic earthquake risk assessment, mainly from the viewpoint as a tool to improve safety and explanatory adequacy. The definition of risk is the expected value of undesirable effect in an engineering meaning that is likely to occur in the future, and it is defined in risk management as the triplet of scenario (what can happen), frequency, and impact. As for the earthquake risk assessment of a nuclear power plant, the fragility of structure / system / component (SSC) against earthquake (so-called earthquake fragility) is assessed, and by combining with the earthquake hazard that has been separately obtained, the occurrence frequency and impact of the accident are obtained. From the view of the authors, earthquake risk assessment is for the purpose of decision-making, and is not intended to calculate the probability in a scientifically rigorous manner. For ensuring the quality of risk assessment, the table of 'Expert utilization standards for the evaluation of epistemological uncertainty' is used. Sole quantitative risk assessment is not necessarily sufficient for risk management. It would be important to find how to build the 'framework for comprehensive decision-making.' (A.O.)

  6. An integrated risk assessment tool for team-based periodontal disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Gupta, Sugandh

    2013-01-01

    Mounting evidence suggests a potential association of periodontal disease with systemic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and stroke. The objective of this study is to develop an integrated risk assessment tool that displays a patients' risk for periodontal disease in the context of their systemic disease, social habits and oral health. Such a tool will be used by not just dental professionals but also by care providers who participate in the team-based care for chronic disease management. Displaying relationships between risk factors and its influence on the patient's general health could be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians. It may also improve the coordination of care provided by the provider-members of a chronic care team.

  7. A novel tool for the communication of ecological risk assessment information in an urbanized watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zandbergen, P.

    1995-01-01

    A tool was developed for the communication of ecological risk assessment information on various types of point and nonpoint source pollution in the Brunette River watershed, an urbanized watershed in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. The communication of ecological risks is a complex task, since the outcomes of quantitative ecological risk assessments are often not well understood by interested parties, and the results of the scientific analysis are generally quite different from the public perception of risk. Scientists should try to assist in the effective communication of their analysis by presenting it in a form more accessible to a variety of stakeholders, exposing the assessment process itself and the uncertainties in the analysis. This was attempted in developing a tool for the effective communication of ecological risk assessment information and management alternatives to the community in the watershed. Longstanding concerns over various forms of point and non-point sources of pollution in the watershed have resulted in a major effort to document the releases of pollutants, the exposure pathways, and the consequences for aquatic life. Extensive monitoring of ecosystem parameters, data-integration by means of a Geographic Information System, and the use of numerous databases and sub-models have resulted in the ecological risk assessment of four types of pollution in the watershed: petroleum fuels, metals, pesticides and basic industrial chemicals. Results will be presented of the attempts to integrate this information into a communication tool, which will demonstrate the principles, values and assumptions underlying the scientific analysis, as well as the quantitative end results and inherent uncertainties. The tool has been developed in close cooperation with several scientists who did most of the original data collection and with the feedback from some of the stakeholders in the community

  8. Does the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool Predict Discharge Disposition After Joint Replacement?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Viktor J.; Gromov, Kirill; Lebrun, Lauren M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Payers of health services and policymakers place a major focus on cost containment in health care. Studies have shown that early planning of discharge is essential in reducing length of stay and achieving financial benefit; tools that can help predict discharge disposition would...... populations is unknown. A low RAPT score is reported to indicate a high risk of needing any form of inpatient rehabilitation after TJA, including short-term nursing facilities. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: This study attempts (1) to assess predictive accuracy of the RAPT on US patients undergoing total hip and knee....... Based on our findings, the risk categories in our populations should be high risk intermediate risk 7 to 10, and low risk > 10. CONCLUSIONS: The RAPT accurately predicted discharge disposition for high- and low-risk patients in our cohort. Based on our data, intermediate-risk patients should...

  9. EIF onshore discharges : a quantitative environmental risk assessment tool for onshore facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagemann, R.; Smit, M.G.D.; Frost, T.K. [Statoil ASA, Stavenger (Norway); Firth, S.K. [Firth Consultants, Bristol (United Kingdom); Stone, K. [WorleyParsons, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    The proper management of environmental risk is a key requirement of StatoilHydro's governing documents and is a key consideration in all phases of StatoilHydro's activities. In order to help manage risks in an effective and sustainable manner, StatoilHydro has led the development of the environmental impact factor (EIF) risk assessment tool. The EIF is utilized by all operators on the Norwegian Continental Shelf for reporting continuous improvements in produced water management to the authorities. The EIF concept has also been applied to evaluate environmental risk from air emissions, offshore oil spills and drilling discharges, discharges from onshore facilities to sea and discharges and spills from onshore installations. In order to identify the remaining hypothetical risk from a new facility, optimized with respect to environmental protection, this paper presented a case study, where the tool was applied to an oil sands steam assisted gravity drainage facility in Alberta. The paper discussed the EIF model and results of the case study. It was concluded that as a result of the use of generic principles for environmental risk assessment, combined with databases with parameter information for common soil and aquifer types, the EIF tool could be applied to any site ranging from wetlands to deserts. 5 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  10. Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha; Parisi, Carlo; Prescott, Steven R.; Gupta, Abhinav

    2016-01-01

    Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

  11. Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, Justin L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bolisetti, Chandu [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Veeraraghavan, Swetha [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven R. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Gupta, Abhinav [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

  12. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles; Saile, Lynn; deCarvalho, Mary Freire; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Iyengar, Sriram; Johnson-Throop, Kathy; Baumann, David

    2009-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

  13. Fall Risk Assessment Tools for Elderly Living in the Community: Can We Do Better?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Palmerini, Luca; Bandinelli, Stefania; Chiari, Lorenzo

    2015-01-01

    Falls are a common, serious threat to the health and self-confidence of the elderly. Assessment of fall risk is an important aspect of effective fall prevention programs. In order to test whether it is possible to outperform current prognostic tools for falls, we analyzed 1010 variables pertaining to mobility collected from 976 elderly subjects (InCHIANTI study). We trained and validated a data-driven model that issues probabilistic predictions about future falls. We benchmarked the model against other fall risk indicators: history of falls, gait speed, Short Physical Performance Battery (Guralnik et al. 1994), and the literature-based fall risk assessment tool FRAT-up (Cattelani et al. 2015). Parsimony in the number of variables included in a tool is often considered a proxy for ease of administration. We studied how constraints on the number of variables affect predictive accuracy. The proposed model and FRAT-up both attained the same discriminative ability; the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for multiple falls was 0.71. They outperformed the other risk scores, which reported AUCs for multiple falls between 0.64 and 0.65. Thus, it appears that both data-driven and literature-based approaches are better at estimating fall risk than commonly used fall risk indicators. The accuracy-parsimony analysis revealed that tools with a small number of predictors (~1-5) were suboptimal. Increasing the number of variables improved the predictive accuracy, reaching a plateau at ~20-30, which we can consider as the best trade-off between accuracy and parsimony. Obtaining the values of these ~20-30 variables does not compromise usability, since they are usually available in comprehensive geriatric assessments.

  14. Fall Risk Assessment Tools for Elderly Living in the Community: Can We Do Better?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierpaolo Palumbo

    Full Text Available Falls are a common, serious threat to the health and self-confidence of the elderly. Assessment of fall risk is an important aspect of effective fall prevention programs.In order to test whether it is possible to outperform current prognostic tools for falls, we analyzed 1010 variables pertaining to mobility collected from 976 elderly subjects (InCHIANTI study. We trained and validated a data-driven model that issues probabilistic predictions about future falls. We benchmarked the model against other fall risk indicators: history of falls, gait speed, Short Physical Performance Battery (Guralnik et al. 1994, and the literature-based fall risk assessment tool FRAT-up (Cattelani et al. 2015. Parsimony in the number of variables included in a tool is often considered a proxy for ease of administration. We studied how constraints on the number of variables affect predictive accuracy.The proposed model and FRAT-up both attained the same discriminative ability; the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve (AUC for multiple falls was 0.71. They outperformed the other risk scores, which reported AUCs for multiple falls between 0.64 and 0.65. Thus, it appears that both data-driven and literature-based approaches are better at estimating fall risk than commonly used fall risk indicators. The accuracy-parsimony analysis revealed that tools with a small number of predictors (~1-5 were suboptimal. Increasing the number of variables improved the predictive accuracy, reaching a plateau at ~20-30, which we can consider as the best trade-off between accuracy and parsimony. Obtaining the values of these ~20-30 variables does not compromise usability, since they are usually available in comprehensive geriatric assessments.

  15. The Pink Underside: The Commercialization of Medical Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Tools for Hereditary Breast Cancer Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesse-Biber, Sharlene; Flynn, Bailey; Farrelly, Keeva

    2018-04-01

    The growth of the Internet since the millennium has opened up a myriad of opportunities for education, particularly in medicine. Although those looking for health care information used to have to turn to a face-to-face doctor's visit, an immense library of medical advice is now available at their fingertips. The BRCA genetic predispositions (mutations of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 breast cancer genes) which expose men and women to greater risk of breast, ovarian, and other cancers can be researched extensively online. Several nonprofit organizations now offer online risk assessment and decision-making tools meant to supplement conversation with medical professionals, which in actuality are quickly replacing it. We argue here through a critical qualitative template analysis of several such tools that the discursive frameworks utilized are prone to fearmongering, commercialization, and questionable validity. Left unchecked, these assessment tools could do more harm than good in driving young women especially to take unnecessary extreme surgical action.

  16. A new tool for risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El-Arkam Mechhoud

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of our work was the implementation of a new automated tool dedicated to risk analysis and assessment in petrochemical plants, based on a combination of two analysis methods: HAZOP (HAZard and OPerability and FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis. Assessment of accident scenarios is also considered. The principal advantage of the two analysis methods is to speed-up hazard identification and risk assessment and forecast the nature and impact of such accidents. Plant parameters are analyzed under a graphical interface to facilitate the exploitation of our developed approach. This automated analysis brings out the different deviations of the operating parameters of any system in the plant. Possible causes of these deviations, their consequences and preventive actions are identified. The result is risk minimization and dependability enhancement of the considered system.

  17. Development of risk assessment simulation tool for optimal control of a low probability-high consequence disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yotsumoto, Hiroki; Yoshida, Kikuo; Genchi, Hiroshi

    2011-01-01

    In order to control low probability-high consequence disaster which causes huge social and economic damage, it is necessary to develop simultaneous risk assessment simulation tool based on the scheme of disaster risk including diverse effects of primary disaster and secondary damages. We propose the scheme of this risk simulation tool. (author)

  18. Primary care physicians’ perspectives on computer-based health risk assessment tools for chronic diseases: a mixed methods study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teja Voruganti

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background Health risk assessment tools compute an individual’s risk of developing a disease. Routine use of such tools by primary care physicians (PCPs is potentially useful in chronic disease prevention. We sought physicians’ awareness and perceptions of the usefulness, usability and feasibility of performing assessments with computer-based risk assessment tools in primary care settings.Methods Focus groups and usability testing with a computer-based risk assessment tool were conducted with PCPs from both university-affiliated and community-based practices. Analysis was derived from grounded theory methodology.Results PCPs (n = 30 were aware of several risk assessment tools although only select tools were used routinely. The decision to use a tool depended on how use impacted practice workflow and whether the tool had credibility. Participants felt that embedding tools in the electronic medical records (EMRs system might allow for health information from the medical record to auto-populate into the tool. User comprehension of risk could also be improved with computer-based interfaces that present risk in different formats.Conclusions In this study, PCPs chose to use certain tools more regularly because of usability and credibility. Despite there being differences in the particular tools a clinical practice used, there was general appreciation for the usefulness of tools for different clinical situations. Participants characterised particular features of an ideal tool, feeling strongly that embedding risk assessment tools in the EMR would maximise accessibility and use of the tool for chronic disease management. However, appropriate practice workflow integration and features that facilitate patient understanding at point-of-care are also essential. 

  19. Combining operational models and data into a dynamic vessel risk assessment tool for coastal regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Neves, R.

    2016-02-01

    The technological evolution in terms of computational capacity, data acquisition systems, numerical modelling and operational oceanography is supplying opportunities for designing and building holistic approaches and complex tools for newer and more efficient management (planning, prevention and response) of coastal water pollution risk events. A combined methodology to dynamically estimate time and space variable individual vessel accident risk levels and shoreline contamination risk from ships has been developed, integrating numerical metocean forecasts and oil spill simulations with vessel tracking automatic identification systems (AIS). The risk rating combines the likelihood of an oil spill occurring from a vessel navigating in a study area - the Portuguese continental shelf - with the assessed consequences to the shoreline. The spill likelihood is based on dynamic marine weather conditions and statistical information from previous accidents. The shoreline consequences reflect the virtual spilled oil amount reaching shoreline and its environmental and socio-economic vulnerabilities. The oil reaching shoreline is quantified with an oil spill fate and behaviour model running multiple virtual spills from vessels along time, or as an alternative, a correction factor based on vessel distance from coast. Shoreline risks can be computed in real time or from previously obtained data. Results show the ability of the proposed methodology to estimate the risk properly sensitive to dynamic metocean conditions and to oil transport behaviour. The integration of meteo-oceanic + oil spill models with coastal vulnerability and AIS data in the quantification of risk enhances the maritime situational awareness and the decision support model, providing a more realistic approach in the assessment of shoreline impacts. The risk assessment from historical data can help finding typical risk patterns ("hot spots") or developing sensitivity analysis to specific conditions, whereas real

  20. Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic urban environments: RiskScape and the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligne, N. I.; Leonard, G.; King, A.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T.; Lindsay, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Auckland city, home to a third of New Zealand's population, is situated on top of the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), which last erupted roughly 500 years ago. Since 2008, the Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) program has investigated the geologic context of the AVF, improved timing constraints of past eruptions, explored possible tempo-spatial-volume eruption trends, and identified likely styles and hazards of future eruptions. DEVORA is now moving into development of risk and societal models for Auckland. The volcanic module of RiskScape, a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by Crown Research Institutes GNS Science and NIWA, will be expanded and used to model risk and impact to the built environment and population caused by a future AVF eruption. RiskScape models casualties, damage and disruption caused by various hazards, the resulting reduced functionality of assets, and associated clean up costs. A strength of RiskScape is that the effect of various mitigation strategies can be explored by strengthening asset attributes and examining resulting changes in the output risk evaluation. We present our framework for building a volcano hazard exposure module for RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability through the development of fragility functions. We also present the framework for engagement with regional Auckland stakeholders, including representatives of local and regional governments and utility companies, to identify complementary needs to ensure that final risk products are relevant and useable by end users.

  1. Tools of an assessment of the budgetary risks of the Udmurt Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhelnova Christina Vladimirovna

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In the present article the essence of the budgetary risk and a problem of management of the budgetary process is investigated. The tools of definition of the budgetary risks on the basis of execution of the income and expenses of the budget are considered. Calculation of the budgetary risks on the example of the consolidated budget of the Udmurt Republic for 2013-2014 is presented., which didn't reveal cases of high risk level of budget performance according to the income and expenses. The received results of an assessment will be important and useful to bodies executive and legislature, including promoting increase of a level of quality of the budgetary management.

  2. A framework for evaluating innovative statistical and risk assessment tools to solve environment restoration problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassig, N.L.; Gilbert, R.O.; Pulsipher, B.A.

    1991-09-01

    Environmental restoration activities at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site face complex issues due to history of varied past contaminant disposal practices. Data collection and analysis required for site characterization, pathway modeling, and remediation selection decisions must deal with inherent uncertainties and unique problems associated with the restoration. A framework for working through the statistical aspects of the site characterization and remediation selection problems is needed. This framework would facilitate the selection of appropriate statistical tools for solving unique aspects of the environmental restoration problem. This paper presents a framework for selecting appropriate statistical and risk assessment methods. The following points will be made: (1) pathway modelers and risk assessors often recognize that ''some type'' of statistical methods are required but don't work with statisticians on tools development in the early planning phases of the project; (2) statistical tools selection and development are problem-specific and often site-specific, further indicating a need for up-front involvement of statisticians; and (3) the right tool, applied in the right way can minimize sampling costs, get as much information as possible out of the data that does exist, provide consistency and defensibility for the results, and given structure and quantitative measures to decision risks and uncertainties

  3. RESRAD for Radiological Risk Assessment. Comparison with EPA CERCLA Tools - PRG and DCC Calculators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, C. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Cheng, J. -J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kamboj, S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this report is two-fold. First, the risk assessment methodology for both RESRAD and the EPA’s tools is reviewed. This includes a review of the EPA’s justification for 2 using a dose-to-risk conversion factor to reduce the dose-based protective ARAR from 15 to 12 mrem/yr. Second, the models and parameters used in RESRAD and the EPA PRG and DCC Calculators are compared in detail, and the results are summarized and discussed. Although there are suites of software tools in the RESRAD family of codes and the EPA Calculators, the scope of this report is limited to the RESRAD (onsite) code for soil contamination and the EPA’s PRG and DCC Calculators also for soil contamination.

  4. Influence of bone mineral density measurement on fracture risk assessment tool® scores in postmenopausal Indian women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daswani, Bhavna; Desai, Meena; Mitra, Sumegha; Gavali, Shubhangi; Patil, Anushree; Kukreja, Subhash; Khatkhatay, M Ikram

    2016-03-01

    Fracture risk assessment tool® calculations can be performed with or without addition of bone mineral density; however, the impact of this addition on fracture risk assessment tool® scores has not been studied in Indian women. Given the limited availability and high cost of bone mineral density testing in India, it is important to know the influence of bone mineral density on fracture risk assessment tool® scores in Indian women. Therefore, our aim was to assess the contribution of bone mineral density in fracture risk assessment tool® outcome in Indian women. Apparently healthy postmenopausal Indian women (n = 506), aged 40-72 years, without clinical risk factors for bone disease, were retrospectively selected, and their fracture risk assessment tool® scores calculated with and without bone mineral density were compared. Based on WHO criteria, 30% women were osteoporotic, 42.9% were osteopenic and 27.1% had normal bone mineral density. Fracture risk assessment tool® scores for risk of both major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture significantly increased on including bone mineral density (P women eligible without bone mineral density was 0 and with bone mineral density was 1, P > 0.05, whereas, for hip fracture risk number of women eligible without bone mineral density was 2 and with bone mineral density was 17, P Indian women. © The Author(s) 2016.

  5. Psychometric validation of the Chinese version of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool for older Chinese inpatients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Junhong; Wang, Min; Liu, Yu

    2016-10-01

    To culturally adapt and evaluate the reliability and validity of the Chinese version of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool among older inpatients in the mainland of China. Patient falls are an important safety consideration within hospitals among older inpatients. Nurses need specific risk assessment tools for older inpatients to reliably identify at-risk populations and guide interventions that highlight fixable risk factors for falls and consequent injuries. In China, a few tools have been developed to measure fall risk. However, they lack the solid psychometric development necessary to establish their validity and reliability, and they are not widely used for elderly inpatients. A cross-sectional study. A convenient sampling was used to recruit 201 older inpatients from two tertiary-level hospitals in Beijing and Xiamen, China. The Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool was translated using forward and backward translation procedures and was administered to these 201 older inpatients. Reliability of the tool was calculated by inter-rater reliability and Cronbach's alpha. Validity was analysed through content validity index and construct validity. The Inter-rater reliability of Chinese version of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool was 97·14% agreement with Cohen's Kappa of 0·903. Cronbach's α was 0·703. Content of Validity Index was 0·833. Two factors represented intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors were explored that together explained 58·89% of the variance. This study provided evidence that Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool is an acceptable, valid and reliable tool to identify older inpatients at risk of falls and falls with injury. Further psychometric testing on criterion validity and evaluation of its advanced utility in geriatric clinical settings are warranted. The Chinese version of Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool may be useful for health care personnel to identify older Chinese inpatients at risk of falls and falls

  6. The Development and Validation of the Contextualized Assessment Tool for Risk and Protection Management (CAT-RPM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Julie M.; Carroll, Annemaree; Ashman, Adrian

    2014-01-01

    Traditional resources for ascertaining risk and protection for disengaged youth are often unsuitable, due to the stamina and skill required to complete them. Many of these tools assess risk without considering participants' potential for personal growth. The present study outlines the development and initial validation of a tool titled the…

  7. Development of caries risk assessment tool for Iranian preschoolers: A primary validation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiva Mortazavi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aim of the present study was to develop a dental caries risk assessment tool for Iranian preschoolers. Methods: In a validation and cross-sectional study, a random sample of 150 preschool children was involved. This study was conducted in three phases: questionnaire design (expert panel and peer evaluation, questionnaire testing (pilot evaluation and field testing, and validation study. The initial assessments include interview, dental examination, and laboratory investigations. Validity and reliability indices, content validity index (CVI, content validity ratio (CVR, impact score, and test-retest and Cronbach's alpha were measured. Decayed, missing, filled teeth (dmft scores were calculated according to the WHO guidelines. Results: The Iranian version of caries risk assessment (CRA questionnaire contained 17 items. Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.86 indicated a suitable internal consistency. The mean scores for the CVI and the CVR were 0.87 and 0.78, respectively. The prevalence rate of dental caries in the study group was 69.3%, and the mean dmft was 4.57 (range 0–19. Conclusions: The Persian version of CRA questionnaire was adapted to the Iranian population. The findings demonstrated overall acceptable validity and also reliability in the application of test-retest. The results of the present study provide initial evidence that the designed CRA form could be a useful tool for CRA in the Iranian preschoolers.

  8. Comparison between frailty index of deficit accumulation and fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in prediction of risk of fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guowei; Thabane, Lehana; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Adachi, Jonathan D

    2015-08-01

    A frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation could quantify and predict the risk of fractures based on the degree of frailty in the elderly. We aimed to compare the predictive powers between the FI and the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in predicting risk of major osteoporotic fracture (hip, upper arm or shoulder, spine, or wrist) and hip fracture, using the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) 3-year Hamilton cohort. There were 3985 women included in the study, with the mean age of 69.4 years (standard deviation [SD] = 8.89). During the follow-up, there were 149 (3.98%) incident major osteoporotic fractures and 18 (0.48%) hip fractures reported. The FRAX and FI were significantly related to each other. Both FRAX and FI significantly predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.05) and 1.02 (95% CI: 1.01-1.04) for per-0.01 increment for the FRAX and FI respectively. The HRs were 1.37 (95% CI: 1.19-1.58) and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.12-1.42) for an increase of per-0.10 (approximately one SD) in the FRAX and FI respectively. Similar discriminative ability of the models was found: c-index = 0.62 for the FRAX and c-index = 0.61 for the FI. When cut-points were chosen to trichotomize participants into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups, a significant increase in fracture risk was found in the high-risk group (HR = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.36-3.07) but not in the medium-risk group (HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 0.82-1.84) compared with the low-risk women for the FI, while for FRAX the medium-risk (HR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.09-3.68) and high-risk groups (HR = 2.61, 95% CI: 1.48-4.58) predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture significantly only when survival time exceeded 18months (550 days). Similar findings were observed for hip fracture and in sensitivity analyses. In conclusion, the FI is comparable with FRAX in the prediction of risk of future fractures, indicating that

  9. Pressure ulcers: effectiveness of risk-assessment tools. A randomised controlled trial (the ULCER trial).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Joan; Coleman, Kerrie; Mudge, Alison; Marquart, Louise; Gardner, Glenn; Stankiewicz, Monica; Kirby, Julie; Vellacott, Catherine; Horton-Breshears, Margaret; McClymont, Alice

    2011-04-01

    To evaluate the effectiveness of two pressure-ulcer screening tools against clinical judgement in preventing pressure ulcers. A single blind randomised controlled trial. A large metropolitan tertiary hospital. 1231 patients admitted to internal medicine or oncology wards. Patients were excluded if their hospital stay was expected to be 2 days or less. Participants allocated to either a Waterlow (n=410) or Ramstadius (n=411) screening tool group or to a clinical judgement group (n=410) where no formal risk screening instrument was used. Incidence of hospital acquired pressure ulcers ascertained by regular direct observation. Use of any devices for the prevention of pressure ulcers, documentation of a pressure plan and any dietetic or specialist skin integrity review were recorded. On admission, 71 (5.8%) patients had an existing pressure ulcer. The incidence of hospital-acquired pressure ulcers was similar between groups (clinical judgement 28/410 (6.8%); Waterlow 31/411 (7.5%); Ramstadius 22/410 (5.4%), p=0.44). Significant associations with pressure injury in regression modelling included requiring a dietetic referral, being admitted from a location other than home and age over 65 years. The authors found no evidence to show that two common pressure-ulcer risk-assessment tools are superior to clinical judgement to prevent pressure injury. Resources associated with use of these tools might be better spent on careful daily skin inspection and improving management targetted at specific risks. The trial was registered with the Australian and New Zealand Clinicat Trials Registry (ACTRN 12608000541303).

  10. The Development of a Plant Risk Evaluation (PRE) Tool for Assessing the Invasive Potential of Ornamental Plants

    OpenAIRE

    Conser, Christiana; Seebacher, Lizbeth; Fujino, David W.; Reichard, Sarah; DiTomaso, Joseph M.

    2015-01-01

    Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) methods for evaluating invasiveness in plants have evolved rapidly in the last two decades. Many WRA tools exist, but none were specifically designed to screen ornamental plants prior to being released into the environment. To be accepted as a tool to evaluate ornamental plants for the nursery industry, it is critical that a WRA tool accurately predicts non-invasiveness without falsely categorizing them as invasive. We developed a new Plant Risk Evaluation (PRE) too...

  11. Application of a pilot control banding tool for risk level assessment and control of nanoparticle exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paik, Samuel Y; Zalk, David M; Swuste, Paul

    2008-08-01

    Control banding (CB) strategies offer simplified solutions for controlling worker exposures to constituents that are found in the workplace in the absence of firm toxicological and exposure data. These strategies may be particularly useful in nanotechnology applications, considering the overwhelming level of uncertainty over what nanomaterials and nanotechnologies present as potential work-related health risks, what about these materials might lead to adverse toxicological activity, how risk related to these might be assessed and how to manage these issues in the absence of this information. This study introduces a pilot CB tool or 'CB Nanotool' that was developed specifically for characterizing the health aspects of working with engineered nanoparticles and determining the level of risk and associated controls for five ongoing nanotechnology-related operations being conducted at two Department of Energy research laboratories. Based on the application of the CB Nanotool, four of the five operations evaluated in this study were found to have implemented controls consistent with what was recommended by the CB Nanotool, with one operation even exceeding the required controls for that activity. The one remaining operation was determined to require an upgrade in controls. By developing this dynamic CB Nanotool within the realm of the scientific information available, this application of CB appears to be a useful approach for assessing the risk of nanomaterial operations, providing recommendations for appropriate engineering controls and facilitating the allocation of resources to the activities that most need them.

  12. Risk assessment and cost-benefit techniques as management tools for oil spill prevention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diller, S.

    1998-01-01

    In the last 15 years, and especially after remarkable large technological accidents like Bhopal, San Juanico, Tacoa, Piper Alpha, Exxon Valdez, Sea Empress, etc, the risk assessment tools have become a must for design engineers and also have been growing popular since more reliable oil spill accident analysis data has been gathered in the last ten years. On the other hand the large investments that have been necessary to execute in order to adequate and improve old facilities, equipment, etc., and the total loss control enhancements in new projects, have created some concern on how safe is safe and how much money is it necessary to spend in order to be sufficiently preventative without getting into financial trouble and being technologically sound according to the growing global concern about environmental issues. Concepts are presented in risk prevention and oil spill risk assessment, and examples are developed in order to understand the link between different oil spill risk prevention options and the management finance decision making process. (author)

  13. Systematic Review: Concept and Tool Development with Application in the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Systematic Review: Concept and tool development with application to the National Toxicology Program (NTP) and the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Assessment Processes. There is growing interest within the environmental health community to incorporate systematic review m...

  14. In silico tools to aid risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, M.N.

    2004-01-01

    In silico or computational tools could be used more effectively in endocrine disruptor risk assessment for prescreening potential endocrine disruptors, improving experimental in vitro screening assay design and facilitating more thorough data analyses. The in silico tools reviewed here are three-fold and include the use of: (1) nuclear receptor (NR) crystal structures and homology models to examine potential modes of ligand binding by different representative compounds; (2) multivariate principal component analyses (PCA) techniques to select best predicted cell lines for endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDC) risk assessment purposes; (3) NR quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) that can be constructed from varied biological data sources, using multivariate partial least squares (PLS) techniques and specific descriptors. The cytosolic and NR examples discussed here include the Ah receptor (AhR), the human oestrogen receptor α (hERα) and the human pregnane X receptor (PXR). The varied biological data sets can be compared to give a more integrated dimension to receptor cross talk mechanisms, with further support from molecular modelling studies

  15. The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerstman, Eric L.; Minard, Charles; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary H.; Walton, Marlei E.; Myers, Jerry G., Jr.; Saile, Lynn G.; Lopez, Vilma; Butler, Douglas J.; Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) and its use as a risk assessment and decision support tool for human space flight missions. The IMM is an integrated, quantified, evidence-based decision support tool useful to NASA crew health and mission planners. It is intended to assist in optimizing crew health, safety and mission success within the constraints of the space flight environment for in-flight operations. It uses ISS data to assist in planning for the Exploration Program and it is not intended to assist in post flight research. The IMM was used to update Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) for the purpose of updating forecasts for the conditions requiring evacuation (EVAC) or Loss of Crew Life (LOC) for the ISS. The IMM validation approach includes comparison with actual events and involves both qualitative and quantitaive approaches. The results of these comparisons are reviewed. Another use of the IMM is to optimize the medical kits taking into consideration the specific mission and the crew profile. An example of the use of the IMM to optimize the medical kits is reviewed.

  16. Systematic analysis of natural hazards along infrastructure networks using a GIS-tool for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko

    2010-05-01

    Due to the topographical conditions in Switzerland, the highways and the railway lines are frequently exposed to natural hazards as rockfalls, debris flows, landslides, avalanches and others. With the rising incidence of those natural hazards, protection measures become an important political issue. However, they are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. Furthermore risks are distributed in space and time. Consequently, important decision problems to the public sector decision makers are derived. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Efficient protection alternatives can be obtained consequently considering the concept of integral risk management. Risk analysis, as the central part of risk management, has become gradually a generally accepted approach for the assessment of current and future scenarios (Loat & Zimmermann 2004). The procedure aims at risk reduction which can be reached by conventional mitigation on one hand and the implementation of land-use planning on the other hand: a combination of active and passive mitigation measures is applied to prevent damage to buildings, people and infrastructures. With a Geographical Information System adapted to run with a tool developed to manage Risk analysis it is possible to survey the data in time and space, obtaining an important system for managing natural risks. As a framework, we adopt the Swiss system for risk analysis of gravitational natural hazards (BUWAL 1999). It offers a complete framework for the analysis and assessment of risks due to natural hazards, ranging from hazard assessment for gravitational natural hazards, such as landslides, collapses, rockfalls, floodings, debris flows and avalanches, to vulnerability assessment and risk analysis, and the integration into land use planning at the cantonal and municipality level. The scheme is limited to the direct consequences of natural hazards. Thus, we develop a

  17. A new stratified risk assessment tool for whiplash injuries developed from a prospective observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasch, Helge; Kongsted, Alice; Qerama, Erisela; Bach, Flemming W; Bendix, Tom; Jensen, Troels Staehelin

    2013-01-01

    Objectives An initial stratification of acute whiplash patients into seven risk-strata in relation to 1-year work disability as primary outcome is presented. Design The design was an observational prospective study of risk factors embedded in a randomised controlled study. Setting Acute whiplash patients from units, general practitioners in four Danish counties were referred to two research centres. Participants During a 2-year inclusion period, acute consecutive whiplash-injured (age 18–70 years, rear-end or frontal-end car accident and WAD (whiplash-associated disorders) grades I–III, symptoms within 72 h, examination prior to 10 days postinjury, capable of written/spoken Danish, without other injuries/fractures, pre-existing significant somatic/psychiatric disorder, drug/alcohol abuse and previous significant pain/headache). 688 (438 women and 250 men) participants were interviewed and examined by a study nurse after 5 days; 605 were completed after 1 year. A risk score which included items of initial neck pain/headache intensity, a number of non-painful complaints and active neck mobility was applied. The primary outcome parameter was 1-year work disability. Results The risk score and number of sick-listing days were related (Kruskal-Wallis, pwhiplash. Neck-mobility was a strong predictor in this study; however, it was a more inconsistent predictor in other studies. Conclusions Application of the risk assessment score and use of the risk strata system may be beneficial in future studies and may be considered as a valuable tool to assess return-to-work following injuries; however, further studies are needed. PMID:23370009

  18. Tools used by the insurance industry to assess risk from hydroclimatic extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgs, Stephanie; McMullan, Caroline

    2016-04-01

    Probabilistic catastrophe models are widely used within the insurance industry to assess and price the risk of natural hazards to individual residences through to portfolios of millions of properties. Over the relatively short period that catastrophe models have been available (almost 30 years), the insurance industry has built up a financial resilience to key natural hazards in certain areas (e.g. US tropical cyclone, European extra-tropical cyclone and flood). However, due the rapidly expanding global population and increase in wealth, together with uncertainties in the behaviour of meteorological phenomena introduced by climate change, the domain in which natural hazards impact society is growing. As a result, the insurance industry faces new challenges in assessing the risk and uncertainty from natural hazards. As a catastrophe modelling company, AIR Worldwide has a toolbox of options available to help the insurance industry assess extreme climatic events and their associated uncertainty. Here we discuss several of these tools: from helping analysts understand how uncertainty is inherently built in to probabilistic catastrophe models, to understanding alternative stochastic catalogs for tropical cyclone based on climate conditioning. Through the use of stochastic extreme disaster events such as those provided through AIR's catalogs or through the Lloyds of London marketplace (RDS's) to provide useful benchmarks for the loss probability exceedence and tail-at-risk metrics outputted from catastrophe models; to the visualisation of 1000+ year event footprints and hazard intensity maps. Ultimately the increased transparency of catastrophe models and flexibility of a software platform that allows for customisation of modelled and non-modelled risks will drive a greater understanding of extreme hydroclimatic events within the insurance industry.

  19. Above, Beyond, and Over the Side rails: Evaluating the New Memorial Emergency Department Fall-Risk-Assessment Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Robin A; Oman, Kathleen S; Flarity, Kathleen; Comer, Jennifer L

    2018-03-06

    Patient falls are a significant issue in hospitalized patients and financially costly to hospitals. The Joint Commission requires that patients be assessed for fall risk and interventions in place to mitigate the risk of falls. It is imperative to have a patient population/setting specific fall risk assessment tool to identify patients at risk for falling. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the 2013 Memorial ED Fall Risk Assessment tool (MEDFRAT) specifically designed for the ED population. A two-phase prospective design was used for this study. Phase one determined the interrater reliability of the MEDFRAT. Phase two assessed the validity of the MEDFRAT in an emergency department (ED) within a 600-bed academic/teaching institution; Level II Trauma Center with >100,000 annual patient visits. The Memorial ED Fall Risk Assessment Tool was validated in this ED setting. The tool demonstrated positive interrater reliability (k=0.701) and when implemented with a falls prevention strategy and staff education demonstrated a 48% decrease in ED fall rate (0.57 falls/1000 patient visits) post implementation during the study period. The MEDFRAT, an evidenced based ED-specific fall risk tool was implemented on the basis of the risk factors consistently identified in the literature: prior fall history, impaired mobility, altered mental status, altered elimination, and the use of sedative medication. The Memorial ED Fall Risk Assessment Tool demonstrated to be a valid tool for this hospital system. Copyright © 2018 Emergency Nurses Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. [Safety Walkround as a risk assessment tool: the first Italian experience].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levati, A; Amato, S; Adrario, E; De Flaviis, C; Delia, C; Milesi, S; Petrini, F; Bevilacqua, L

    2009-01-01

    In 2007 the Study Group "Clinical Risk Management" of the Italian Society of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care Unit (SIAARTI) performed a multicentric study in Intensive Care Unit (ICU) to assess the feasibility and efficacy of the Safety WalkRound (SWR) as a tool for the risk assessment. As the environment and organization of ICU are more complex than anaesthesia ones, mainly due to the severity of patients, high number of involved healthcare givers and different kinds of procedures, the Study Group decided that a check list is not fit for ICU and , after a careful review of the literature, chose to test the Safety WalkRound. in four Italian General ICUs. The SWR was born in 2003 when Frankel plans a structured interview of 15 questions (about 50% open) to collect operators' opinion about rate and type of errors, near misses, communication, problems regarding the report of adverse events and suggestions to increase patient safety. Consequently SWR is a tool of risk assessment alternative to the Incident Reporting which is marked by a diffuse underreporting of operators. Although the SWR is a new tool not validated in Italian language neither published in Italy on PubMed journals , the Study Group has decided that it might be fit for the organization of Italian Healthcare System. A back translation of the validated model of Joint Commission was provided and the translated version has been lightly changed to be employed in hospitals with and without Incident Reporting . The questions have been changed or introduced on the basis of the organization vulnerabilities detected with observational techniques or Focus Group. The interview performed in Italy contains 16 questions classified into five groups: a) error, b) error prevention, c) communication, teamwork and leadership, d) error discussion and e) relationship with patients and their families. The answers collected have been analyzed to detect the vulnerabilities in the organizations and specify the improvements to

  1. Association between metabolic syndrome and bone fracture risk: A community-based study using a fracture risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Chia-Ying; Chen, Fang-Ping; Chen, Li-Wei; Kuo, Sheng-Fong; Chien, Rong-Nan

    2017-12-01

    Osteoporosis and metabolic syndrome (MS) share similar risk factors. Previous studies of association between bone marrow density (BMD) and MS are controversial. Moreover, some studies revealed that MS is associated with BMD but not with bone fracture. In clinical practice, patients pay more attention to bone fracture risk than BMD values. Hence, this study aimed to evaluate the association between MS and the 10-year bone fracture risk probability using a fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) from community-based data. From March 2014 to August 2015, 2689 participants (897 men and 1792 women) were enrolled in this study. Inflammatory cytokines, such as tumor necrosis factor alpha and C-reactive protein, and adipokines were included for analysis.The mean age was 60.2 ± 10.7 years in men and 58.9 ± 9.6 years in women. The percentage of MS was 27.6% in men and 27.9% in women. Participants were divided into 2 groups, those with or without MS. Compared with women without MS, women with MS had a higher rate of fracture risk (22.8% vs 16.3%, P = .001). In contrast, men with MS had a lower rate of fracture risk then men without MS (5.6% vs 12.3%, P = .004). However, MS loss the association with a high bone fracture risk in men based on multivariate logistical regression analysis, after adjusting for confounding factor of body mass index (BMI). Conclusively, the result of regression analysis between MS and the bone fracture risk may be different in men and women, and BMI was an important confounding factor to interfere with the regression analysis. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. [Development of HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men based on Delphi method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L L; Jiang, Z; Song, W L; Ding, Y Y; Xu, J; He, N

    2017-10-10

    Objective: To develop a HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men (MSM) based on Delphi method. Methods: After an exhaustive literature review, we used Delphi method to determine the specific items and relative risk scores of the assessment tool through two rounds of specialist consultation and overall consideration of the opinions and suggestions of 17 specialists. Results: The positivity coefficient through first and second round specialist consultation was 100.0 % and 94.1 % , respectively. The mean of authority coefficients ( Cr ) was 0.86. Kendall's W coefficient of the specialist consultation was 0.55 for the first round consultation (χ(2)=84.426, P risk assessment tool for MSM has 8 items. Conclusions: The HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM, developed under the Delphi method, can be used in the evaluation of HIV infection risk in MSM and individualized prevention and intervention. However, the reliability and validity of this risk assessment tool need to be further evaluated.

  3. Globe of Natural Hazard - A new assessment tool for risk managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, A. C.

    2009-04-01

    A large number of tropical cyclones and the earthquake in Sichuan made 2008 one of the most devastating years on record. Throughout the world, more than 220,000 people died as a result of natural catastrophes this year. Overall losses totaled some US 200bn (2007: US 82bn). Insured losses in 2008 rose to US 45bn, about 50% higher than in the previous year. Mainly driven by high losses from weather-related natural catastrophes, 2008 was - on the basis of figures adjusted for inflation - even the third most expensive year on record for the insurance industry, exceeded only by the hurricane year of 2005 and by 1995, the year of the Kobe earthquake. Munich Re, a worldwide operating reinsurance company, is a world leader in terms of investigating risks from natural hazards of all kinds. 2008 has again shown the insurance industry how important it is to analyse risks like natural hazards and climate change in all their facets and to manage the insurance business accordingly. An excellent example of the wealth of knowledge Munich Re has developed in natural hazard assessment is the DVD "Globe of Natural Hazards". It combines the geoscientific data and findings Munich Re has accumulated over a period of 35 years. First devised as a wall-map in 1978, the product has established itself as a standard work for the identification, exposure assessment and risk management of natural hazards. Over 80,000 copies of the CD-ROM version of 2000 have been provided to clients - a mark achieved by no other service product in Munich Re's history. Since the beginning of 2009, the fully updated fourth-generation version has been available. The bilingual DVD (German and English) shows natural hazards and climate effects at a glance: the global maps are presented on a 3D globe, underlaid with satellite images. The hazard complexes of hail, tornado and winter storms have been completely revised and flood incorporated as a new hazard. Users can intuitively home in on and enlarge any location on

  4. Multifactorial screening for fall risk in community-dwelling older adults in the primary care office: development of the fall risk assessment & screening tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renfro, Mindy Oxman; Fehrer, Steven

    2011-01-01

    Unintentional falls is an increasing public health problem as incidence of falls rises and the population ages. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that 1 in 3 adults aged 65 years and older will experience a fall this year; 20% to 30% of those who fall will sustain a moderate to severe injury. Physical therapists caring for older adults are usually engaged with these patients after the first injury fall and may have little opportunity to abate fall risk before the injuries occur. This article describes the content selection and development of a simple-to-administer, multifactorial, Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool (FRAST), designed specifically for use in primary care settings to identify those older adults with high fall risk. Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool incorporates previously validated measures within a new multifactorial tool and includes targeted recommendations for intervention. Development of the multifactorial FRAST used a 5-part process: identification of significant fall risk factors, review of best evidence, selection of items, creation of the scoring grid, and development of a recommended action plan. Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool has been developed to assess fall risk in the target population of older adults (older than 65 years) living and ambulating independently in the community. Many fall risk factors have been considered and 15 items selected for inclusion. Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool includes 4 previously validated measures to assess balance, depression, falls efficacy, and home safety. Reliability and validity studies of FRAST are under way. Fall risk for community-dwelling older adults is an urgent, multifactorial, public health problem. Providing primary care practitioners (PCPs) with a very simple screening tool is imperative. Fall Risk Assessment & Screening Tool was created to allow for safe, quick, and low-cost administration by minimally trained office staff with interpretation and

  5. Using an Internet-Based Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool to Improve Social-Cognitive Precursors of Physical Activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Stephanie L; Klein, William M P; Ball, Linda; McGuire, Jaclyn; Colditz, Graham A; Waters, Erika A

    2017-08-01

    Internet-based cancer risk assessment tools might serve as a strategy for translating epidemiological risk prediction research into public health practice. Understanding how such tools affect key social-cognitive precursors of behavior change is crucial for leveraging their potential into effective interventions. To test the effects of a publicly available, Internet-based, breast cancer risk assessment tool on social-cognitive precursors of physical activity. Women (N = 132) aged 40-78 with no personal cancer history indicated their perceived risk of breast cancer and were randomly assigned to receive personalized ( www.yourdiseaserisk.wustl.edu ) or nonpersonalized breast cancer risk information. Immediately thereafter, breast cancer risk perceptions and physical activity-related behavioral intentions, self-efficacy, and response efficacy were assessed. Personalized information elicited higher intentions, self-efficacy, and response efficacy than nonpersonalized information, P values Internet-based risk assessment tools can produce beneficial effects on important social-cognitive precursors of behavior change, but lingering skepticism, possibly due to defensive processing, needs to be addressed before the effects can be maximized.

  6. Development and validation of the FRAGIRE tool for assessment an older person's risk for frailty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernerey, Dewi; Anota, Amelie; Vandel, Pierre; Paget-Bailly, Sophie; Dion, Michele; Bailly, Vanessa; Bonin, Marie; Pozet, Astrid; Foubert, Audrey; Benetkiewicz, Magdalena; Manckoundia, Patrick; Bonnetain, Franck

    2016-11-17

    Frailty is highly prevalent in elderly people. While significant progress has been made to understand its pathogenesis process, few validated questionnaire exist to assess the multidimensional concept of frailty and to detect people frail or at risk to become frail. The objectives of this study were to construct and validate a new frailty-screening instrument named Frailty Groupe Iso-Ressource Evaluation (FRAGIRE) that accurately predicts the risk for frailty in older adults. A prospective multicenter recruitment of the elderly patients was undertaken in France. The subjects were classified into financially-helped group (FH, with financial assistance) and non-financially helped group (NFH, without any financial assistance), considering FH subjects are more frail than the NFH group and thus representing an acceptable surrogate population for frailty. Psychometric properties of the FRAGIRE grid were assessed including discrimination between the FH and NFH groups. Items reduction was made according to statistical analyses and experts' point of view. The association between items response and tests with "help requested status" was assessed in univariate and multivariate unconditional logistic regression analyses and a prognostic score to become frail was finally proposed for each subject. Between May 2013 and July 2013, 385 subjects were included: 338 (88%) in the FH group and 47 (12%) in the NFH group. The initial FRAGIRE grid included 65 items. After conducting the item selection, the final grid of the FRAGIRE was reduced to 19 items. The final grid showed fair discrimination ability to predict frailty (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85) and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P-value = 0.580), reflecting a good agreement between the prediction by the final model and actual observation. The Cronbach's alpha for the developed tool scored as high as 0.69 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.64 to 0.74). The final prognostic score was excellent, with an AUC of 0

  7. Effect of standardized training on the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool: a study protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Costa, Bruno R; Resta, Nina M; Beckett, Brooke; Israel-Stahre, Nicholas; Diaz, Alison; Johnston, Bradley C; Egger, Matthias; Jüni, Peter; Armijo-Olivo, Susan

    2014-12-13

    The Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tool has been widely embraced by the systematic review community, but several studies have reported that its reliability is low. We aim to investigate whether training of raters, including objective and standardized instructions on how to assess risk of bias, can improve the reliability of this tool. We describe the methods that will be used in this investigation and present an intensive standardized training package for risk of bias assessment that could be used by contributors to the Cochrane Collaboration and other reviewers. This is a pilot study. We will first perform a systematic literature review to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that will be used for risk of bias assessment. Using the identified RCTs, we will then do a randomized experiment, where raters will be allocated to two different training schemes: minimal training and intensive standardized training. We will calculate the chance-corrected weighted Kappa with 95% confidence intervals to quantify within- and between-group Kappa agreement for each of the domains of the risk of bias tool. To calculate between-group Kappa agreement, we will use risk of bias assessments from pairs of raters after resolution of disagreements. Between-group Kappa agreement will quantify the agreement between the risk of bias assessment of raters in the training groups and the risk of bias assessment of experienced raters. To compare agreement of raters under different training conditions, we will calculate differences between Kappa values with 95% confidence intervals. This study will investigate whether the reliability of the risk of bias tool can be improved by training raters using standardized instructions for risk of bias assessment. One group of inexperienced raters will receive intensive training on risk of bias assessment and the other will receive minimal training. By including a control group with minimal training, we will attempt to mimic what many review authors

  8. Caries risk assessment tool and prevention protocol for public health nurses in mother and child health centers, Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natapov, Lena; Dekel-Markovich, Dan; Granit-Palmon, Hadas; Aflalo, Efrat; Zusman, Shlomo Paul

    2018-01-01

    Dental caries is the most prevalent chronic disease in children. Caries risk assessment tools enable the dentists, physicians, and nondental health care providers to assess the individual's risk. Intervention by nurses in primary care settings can contribute to the establishment of oral health habits and prevention of dental disease. In Israel, Mother and Child Health Centers provide free preventive services for pregnant women and children by public health nurses. A caries prevention program in health centers started in 2015. Nurses underwent special training regarding caries prevention. A customized Caries Risk Assessment tool and Prevention Protocol for nurses, based on the AAPD tool, was introduced. A two-step evaluation was conducted which included a questionnaire and in-depth phone interviews. Twenty-eight (out of 46) health centers returned a completed questionnaire. Most nurses believed that oral health preventive services should be incorporated into their daily work. In the in-depth phone interviews, nurses stated that the integration of the program into their busy daily schedule was realistic and appropriate. The lack of specific dental module for computer program was mentioned as an implementation difficulty. The wide use of our tool by nurses supports its simplicity and feasibility which enables quick calculation and informed decision making. The nurses readily embraced the tool and it became an integral part of their toolkit. We provide public health nurses with a caries risk assessment tool and prevention protocol thus integrating oral health into general health of infants and toddlers. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Development and psychometric evaluation of a cardiovascular risk and disease management knowledge assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosneck, James S; Hughes, Joel; Gunstad, John; Josephson, Richard; Noe, Donald A; Waechter, Donna

    2014-01-01

    This article describes the systematic construction and psychometric analysis of a knowledge assessment instrument for phase II cardiac rehabilitation (CR) patients measuring risk modification disease management knowledge and behavioral outcomes derived from national standards relevant to secondary prevention and management of cardiovascular disease. First, using adult curriculum based on disease-specific learning outcomes and competencies, a systematic test item development process was completed by clinical staff. Second, a panel of educational and clinical experts used an iterative process to identify test content domain and arrive at consensus in selecting items meeting criteria. Third, the resulting 31-question instrument, the Cardiac Knowledge Assessment Tool (CKAT), was piloted in CR patients to ensure use of application. Validity and reliability analyses were performed on 3638 adults before test administrations with additional focused analyses on 1999 individuals completing both pretreatment and posttreatment administrations within 6 months. Evidence of CKAT content validity was substantiated, with 85% agreement among content experts. Evidence of construct validity was demonstrated via factor analysis identifying key underlying factors. Estimates of internal consistency, for example, Cronbach's α = .852 and Spearman-Brown split-half reliability = 0.817 on pretesting, support test reliability. Item analysis, using point biserial correlation, measured relationships between performance on single items and total score (P knowledge instrument specifically designed for an adult CR population was systematically developed and tested in a large representative patient population, satisfying psychometric parameters, including validity and reliability.

  10. Integral statistical eco-indices - effective complementary tool for assessment of ecological state of and ecological risks for water ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashamkova, I

    2010-01-01

    Eco-indices are successfully used for assessment of the ecological state and risks of water reservoirs. They allow, already at early stages, to detect negative effects on water ecosystems caused by progressive anthropogenic impacts and widening of the spectrum of pollutants, and to quantitatively evaluate ecological risks and damage for water reservoirs. Implementing these modern tools to water quality assessment is one of the lines to make decisions concerning challenging environmental problems.

  11. A lower limb assessment tool for athletes at risk of developing patellar tendinopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Kerry J; Edwards, Suzi; Drinkwater, Eric J; Bird, Stephen P

    2013-03-01

    Patellar tendon abnormality (PTA) on diagnostic imaging is part of the diagnostic criteria for patellar tendinopathy. PTA and altered landing strategies are primary risk factors that increase the likelihood of asymptomatic athletes developing patellar tendinopathy. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the risk factors that are predictors of the presence and severity of a PTA in junior pre-elite athletes. Ten junior pre-elite male basketball athletes with a PTA were matched with 10 athletes with normal patellar tendons. Participants had patellar tendon morphology, Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment (VISA) score, body composition, lower limb flexibility, and maximum vertical jump height measured before performing five successful stop-jump tasks. During each stop-jump task, both two-dimensional and three-dimensional kinematics and ground reaction forces were recorded. Multiple regression analyses were used to identify factors for estimating PTA presence and severity, and discriminate analysis was used to classify PTA presence. Sixty-eight percent of variance for presence of a PTA was accounted for by hip joint range of motion (ROM) and knee joint angle at initial foot-ground contact (IC) during stop-jump task and quadriceps flexibility, whereas hip joint ROM during stop-jump task and VISA score accounted for 62% of variance for PTA severity. Prediction of the presence of a PTA was achieved with 95% accuracy and 95% cross-validation. An easily implemented, reliable, and valid movement screening tool composed of three criteria enables coaches and/or clinicians to predict the presence and severity of a PTA in asymptomatic athletes. This enables identification of asymptomatic athletes at higher risk of developing patellar tendinopathy, which allows the development of effective preventative measures to aid in the reduction of patellar tendinopathy injury prevalence.

  12. Effect of standardized training on the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Costa, Bruno R; Beckett, Brooke; Diaz, Alison; Resta, Nina M; Johnston, Bradley C; Egger, Matthias; Jüni, Peter; Armijo-Olivo, Susan

    2017-03-03

    The Cochrane risk of bias tool is commonly criticized for having a low reliability. We aimed to investigate whether training of raters, with objective and standardized instructions on how to assess risk of bias, can improve the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias tool. In this pilot study, four raters inexperienced in risk of bias assessment were randomly allocated to minimal or intensive standardized training for risk of bias assessment of randomized trials of physical therapy treatments for patients with knee osteoarthritis pain. Two raters were experienced risk of bias assessors who served as reference. The primary outcome of our study was between-group reliability, defined as the agreement of the risk of bias assessments of inexperienced raters with the reference assessments of experienced raters. Consensus-based assessments were used for this purpose. The secondary outcome was within-group reliability, defined as the agreement of assessments within pairs of inexperienced raters. We calculated the chance-corrected weighted Kappa to quantify agreement within and between groups of raters for each of the domains of the risk of bias tool. A total of 56 trials were included in our analysis. The Kappa for the agreement of inexperienced raters with reference across items of the risk of bias tool ranged from 0.10 to 0.81 for the minimal training group and from 0.41 to 0.90 for the standardized training group. The Kappa values for the agreement within pairs of inexperienced raters across the items of the risk of bias tool ranged from 0 to 0.38 for the minimal training group and from 0.93 to 1 for the standardized training group. Between-group differences in Kappa for the agreement of inexperienced raters with reference always favored the standardized training group and was most pronounced for incomplete outcome data (difference in Kappa 0.52, p training on risk of bias assessment may significantly improve the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias tool.

  13. A Screening Tool for Assessing Alcohol Use Risk among Medically Vulnerable Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Sharon; Dedeoglu, Fatma; Gaffin, Jonathan M; Garvey, Katharine C; Harstad, Elizabeth; MacGinnitie, Andrew; Rufo, Paul A; Huang, Qian; Ziemnik, Rosemary E; Wisk, Lauren E; Weitzman, Elissa R

    2016-01-01

    In an effort to reduce barriers to screening for alcohol use in pediatric primary care, the National Institute on Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse (NIAAA) developed a two-question Youth Alcohol Screening Tool derived from population-based survey data. It is unknown whether this screening tool, designed for use with general populations, accurately identifies risk among youth with chronic medical conditions (YCMC). This growing population, which comprises nearly one in four youth in the US, faces a unique constellation of drinking-related risks. To validate the NIAAA Youth Alcohol Screening Tool in a population of YCMC, we performed a cross-sectional validation study with a sample of 388 youth ages 9-18 years presenting for routine subspecialty care at a large children's hospital for type 1 diabetes, persistent asthma, cystic fibrosis, inflammatory bowel disease, or juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Participants self-administered the NIAAA Youth Alcohol Screening Tool and the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children as a criterion standard measure of alcohol use disorders (AUD). Receiver operating curve analysis was used to determine cut points for identifying youth at moderate and highest risk for an AUD. Nearly one third of participants (n = 118; 30.4%) reported alcohol use in the past year; 86.4% (106) of past year drinkers did not endorse any AUD criteria, 6.8% (n = 8) of drinkers endorsed a single criterion, and 6.8% of drinkers met criteria for an AUD. Using the NIAAA tool, optimal cut points found to identify youth at moderate and highest risk for an AUD were ≥ 6 and ≥12 drinking days in the past year, respectively. The NIAAA Youth Alcohol Screening Tool is highly efficient for detecting alcohol use and discriminating disordered use among YCMC. This brief screen appears feasible for use in specialty care to ascertain alcohol-related risk that may impact adversely on health status and disease management.

  14. A Screening Tool for Assessing Alcohol Use Risk among Medically Vulnerable Youth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharon Levy

    Full Text Available In an effort to reduce barriers to screening for alcohol use in pediatric primary care, the National Institute on Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse (NIAAA developed a two-question Youth Alcohol Screening Tool derived from population-based survey data. It is unknown whether this screening tool, designed for use with general populations, accurately identifies risk among youth with chronic medical conditions (YCMC. This growing population, which comprises nearly one in four youth in the US, faces a unique constellation of drinking-related risks.To validate the NIAAA Youth Alcohol Screening Tool in a population of YCMC, we performed a cross-sectional validation study with a sample of 388 youth ages 9-18 years presenting for routine subspecialty care at a large children's hospital for type 1 diabetes, persistent asthma, cystic fibrosis, inflammatory bowel disease, or juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Participants self-administered the NIAAA Youth Alcohol Screening Tool and the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children as a criterion standard measure of alcohol use disorders (AUD. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to determine cut points for identifying youth at moderate and highest risk for an AUD.Nearly one third of participants (n = 118; 30.4% reported alcohol use in the past year; 86.4% (106 of past year drinkers did not endorse any AUD criteria, 6.8% (n = 8 of drinkers endorsed a single criterion, and 6.8% of drinkers met criteria for an AUD. Using the NIAAA tool, optimal cut points found to identify youth at moderate and highest risk for an AUD were ≥ 6 and ≥12 drinking days in the past year, respectively.The NIAAA Youth Alcohol Screening Tool is highly efficient for detecting alcohol use and discriminating disordered use among YCMC. This brief screen appears feasible for use in specialty care to ascertain alcohol-related risk that may impact adversely on health status and disease management.

  15. Genetic Stratification in Myeloid Diseases: From Risk Assessment to Clinical Decision Support Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yishai Ofran

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Genetic aberrations have become a dominant factor in the stratification of myeloid malignancies. Cytogenetic and a few mutation studies are the backbone of risk assessment models of myeloid malignancies which are a major consideration in clinical decisions, especially patient assignment for allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Progress in our understanding of the genetic basis of the pathogenesis of myeloid malignancies and the growing capabilities of mass sequencing may add new roles for the clinical usage of genetic data. A few recently identified mutations recognized to be associated with specific diseases or clinical scenarios may soon become part of the diagnostic criteria of such conditions. Mutational studies may also advance our capabilities for a more efficient patient selection process, assigning the most effective therapy at the best timing for each patient. The clinical utility of genetic data is anticipated to advance further with the adoption of deep sequencing and next-generation sequencing techniques. We herein suggest some future potential applications of sequential genetic data to identify pending deteriorations at time points which are the best for aggressive interventions such as allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Genetics is moving from being mostly a prognostic factor to becoming a multitasking decision support tool for hematologists. Physicians must pay attention to advances in molecular hematology as it will soon be accessible and influential for most of our patients.

  16. Preconception care: a screening tool for health assessment and risk detection.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerd, S. de; Bij, A.K. van der; Cikot, R.J.L.M.; Braspenning, J.C.C.; Braat, D.D.M.; Steegers, E.A.P.

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Identification of risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcome is a main component of preconception care, but requires adequate time and knowledge. This study compares self-administered questionnaires to history taking by a physician to evaluate the reliability of such a screening tool for

  17. Use and clinical efficacy of standard and health information technology fall risk assessment tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Ruth C; Wilson, Anne; Ranasinghe, Damith; Visvanathan, Renuka

    2017-12-01

    To evaluate the health information technology (HIT) compared to Fall Risk for Older Persons (FROP) tool in fall risk screening. A HIT tool trial was conducted on the geriatric evaluation and management (GEM, n = 111) and acute medical units (AMU, n = 424). Health information technology and FROP scores were higher on GEM versus AMU, with no differences between people who fell and people who did not fall. Both score completion rates were similar, and their values correlated marginally (Spearman's correlation coefficient 0.33, P falls. Hospital fall rates trended towards reduction on AMU (4.20 vs 6.96, P = 0.15) and increase on GEM (10.98 vs 6.52, P = 0.54) with HIT tool implementation. Health information technology tool acceptability and scoring were comparable to FROP screening, with mixed effects on fall rate with HIT tool implementation. Clinician partnership remains key to effective tool development. © 2017 AJA Inc.

  18. Assessment of the risk of African swine fever introduction into Finland using NORA-a rapid tool for semiquantitative assessment of the risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyyrö, J; Sahlström, L; Lyytikäinen, T

    2017-12-01

    The NORA rapid risk assessment tool was developed for situations where there is a change in the disease status of easily transmissible animal diseases in neighbouring countries or in countries with significant interactions with Finland. The goal was to develop a tool that is quick to use and will provide consistent results to support risk management decisions. The model contains 63 questions that define the potential for entry and exposure by nine different pathways. The magnitude of the consequences is defined by 23 statements. The weight of different pathways is defined according to the properties of the assessed disease. The model was built as an Excel spreadsheet and is intended for use by animal health control administrators. As an outcome, the model gives the possible pathways of disease entry into the country, an overall approximation for the probability of entry and the subsequent exposure, an overall estimate for the consequences and a combined overall risk estimate (probability multiplied by magnitude of consequences). Model validity was assessed by expert panels. Outside Africa, African swine fever is currently established in Russia and Sardinia. In addition, there have been cases in both wild boar and domestic pigs in Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Estonia. Finland has frequent contacts with Russia and Estonia, especially through passengers. The risk of African swine fever (ASF) introduction into Finland was tested with NORA for the situation in December 2015, when ASF was endemic in many parts of Russia, Africa and Sardinia and was present in Baltic countries and in Poland. African swine fever was assessed to have a high probability of entry into Finland, with high consequences and therefore a high overall risk. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  19. Clinicians' use of breast cancer risk assessment tools according to their perceived importance of breast cancer risk factors: an international survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brédart, Anne; Kop, Jean-Luc; Antoniou, Antonis C; Cunningham, Alex P; De Pauw, Antoine; Tischkowitz, Marc; Ehrencrona, Hans; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Dolbeault, Sylvie; Rhiem, Kerstin; Easton, Douglas F; Devilee, Peter; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Schmutlzer, Rita

    2018-03-05

    The BOADICEA breast cancer (BC) risk assessment model and its associated Web Application v3 (BWA) tool are being extended to incorporate additional genetic and non-genetic BC risk factors. From an online survey through the BOADICEA website and UK, Dutch, French and Swedish national genetic societies, we explored the relationships between the usage frequencies of the BWA and six other common BC risk assessment tools and respondents' perceived importance of BC risk factors. Respondents (N = 443) varied in age, country and clinical seniority but comprised mainly genetics health professionals (82%) and BWA users (93%). Oncology professionals perceived reproductive, hormonal (exogenous) and lifestyle BC risk factors as more important in BC risk assessment compared to genetics professionals (p values personal BC history as BC risk factors. BWA use was positively related to the weight given to hormonal BC risk factors. The importance attributed to lifestyle and BMI BC risk factors was not associated with the use of BWA or any of the other tools. Next version of the BWA encompassing additional BC risk factors will facilitate more comprehensive BC risk assessment in genetics and oncology practice.

  20. Clinical Prediction Model and Tool for Assessing Risk of Persistent Pain After Breast Cancer Surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meretoja, Tuomo J; Andersen, Kenneth Geving; Bruce, Julie

    2017-01-01

    are missing. The aim was to develop a clinically applicable risk prediction tool. Methods The prediction models were developed and tested using three prospective data sets from Finland (n = 860), Denmark (n = 453), and Scotland (n = 231). Prediction models for persistent pain of moderate to severe intensity......), high body mass index ( P = .039), axillary lymph node dissection ( P = .008), and more severe acute postoperative pain intensity at the seventh postoperative day ( P = .003) predicted persistent pain in the final prediction model, which performed well in the Danish (ROC-AUC, 0.739) and Scottish (ROC......-AUC, 0.740) cohorts. At the 20% risk level, the model had 32.8% and 47.4% sensitivity and 94.4% and 82.4% specificity in the Danish and Scottish cohorts, respectively. Conclusion Our validated prediction models and an online risk calculator provide clinicians and researchers with a simple tool to screen...

  1. Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT): study protocol for a predictive algorithm assessing dementia risk in the community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Stacey; Hsu, Amy; Mojaverian, Nassim; Taljaard, Monica; Huyer, Gregory; Manuel, Douglas G; Tanuseputro, Peter

    2017-10-24

    The burden of disease from dementia is a growing global concern as incidence increases dramatically with age, and average life expectancy has been increasing around the world. Planning for an ageing population requires reliable projections of dementia prevalence; however, existing population projections are simple and have poor predictive accuracy. The Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT) will predict incidence of dementia in the population setting using multivariable modelling techniques and will be used to project dementia prevalence. The derivation cohort will consist of elderly Ontario respondents of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) (2001, 2003, 2005 and 2007; 18 764 males and 25 288 females). Prespecified predictors include sociodemographic, general health, behavioural, functional and health condition variables. Incident dementia will be identified through individual linkage of survey respondents to population-level administrative healthcare databases (1797 and 3281 events, and 117 795 and 166 573 person-years of follow-up, for males and females, respectively, until 31 March 2014). Using time of first dementia capture as the primary outcome and death as a competing risk, sex-specific proportional hazards regression models will be estimated. The 2008/2009 CCHS survey will be used for validation (approximately 4600 males and 6300 females). Overall calibration and discrimination will be assessed as well as calibration within predefined subgroups of importance to clinicians and policy makers. Research ethics approval has been granted by the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. DemPoRT results will be submitted for publication in peer-review journals and presented at scientific meetings. The algorithm will be assessable online for both population and individual uses. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03155815, pre-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No

  2. SMART: A Propositional Logic-Based Trade Analysis and Risk Assessment Tool for a Complex Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Masahiro; Nicholas, Austin; Alibay, Farah; Parrish, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    This paper introduces a new trade analysis software called the Space Mission Architecture and Risk Analysis Tool (SMART). This tool supports a high-level system trade study on a complex mission, such as a potential Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission, in an intuitive and quantitative manner. In a complex mission, a common approach to increase the probability of success is to have redundancy and prepare backups. Quantitatively evaluating the utility of adding redundancy to a system is important but not straightforward, particularly when the failure of parallel subsystems are correlated.

  3. SOCIAL MEDIA RISK ANALYSIS: HOW TO USE ACCEPTED RISK ASSESSMENT TOOLS TO ANALYZE SOCIAL MEDIA RISKS IN MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-06-01

    Commanders may see value in utilizing the schools of thought to understand how each one influences their judgment of social media risks. For instance...school may represent a view that employs social media to influence the decision-making and behavior of adversaries. Each school of thought differs...the risk further, or accept the risk and move on to the next threat event. Social Media Schools of Thought. Each school of thought may influence

  4. A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Christian, Robby [Dept. of Mechanical, Aerospace, and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Bo Gyung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang Hoon [Dept. of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode.

  5. A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Lee, Sang Hoon

    2017-01-01

    When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode

  6. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  7. State of the art of contaminated site management in The Netherlands: Policy framework and risk assessment tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartjes, F.A.; Rutgers, M.; Lijzen, J.P.A.; Janssen, P.J.C.M.; Otte, P.F.; Wintersen, A.; Brand, E.; Posthuma, L.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the policy framework of contaminated site management in The Netherlands and the corresponding risk assessment tools, including innovations that have taken place since an overview was published in 1999. According to the Dutch Soil Protection Act assessment framework, soils are subdivided into three quality classes: clean, slightly contaminated and seriously contaminated. Historic cases of slightly contaminated soils are managed in a sustainable way by re-use of soil material within a region on the basis of risk-based and land use specific Maximal Values and Background Values. In case of serious soil contamination remediation is in principle necessary and the urgency of remediation has to be determined based on site-specific risks for human health, the ecosystem and groundwater. The major risk assessment tools in The Netherlands are the CSOIL exposure model (human health risks and food safety), Species Sensitivity Distributions and the Soil Quality Triad (ecological risks), along with a procedure to assess the risks due to contaminant spreading to and in the groundwater. Following the principle ‘simple if possible, complex when necessary’, tiered approaches are used. Contaminated site practices are supported with web-based decision support systems. - Highlights: ► The Dutch Soil Protection Act distinguishes three quality classes: clean, slightly contaminated and seriously contaminated. ► Serious soil contamination in principle compels remediation and the determination of the urgency of remediation. ► The relevant protection targets in The Netherlands are human health, ecosystems, groundwater and food safety. ► Important risk assessment tools are the CSOIL and VOLASOIL exposure models, SSDs and the TRIAD approach. ► Under the principle ‘simple when possible, complex when necessary’ tiered approaches are used.

  8. Tools to prevent process safety events at university research facility - chemical risk assessment and experimental set-up risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Niels; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2014-01-01

    The article discusses the two forms developed to examine the hazards of the chemicals to be used in the experiments in the experimental setup in the Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering of the Technical University of Denmark. A system for the safety assessment of new experimental se...... setups in university research and teaching laboratories is presented. The significance of the forms for the effort of researchers in improving work with significant hazards is described....

  9. Tool-based Risk Assessment of Cloud Infrastructures as Socio-Technical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nidd, Michael; Ivanova, Marieta Georgieva; Probst, Christian W.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing risk in cloud infrastructures is difficult. Typical cloud infrastructures contain potentially thousands of nodes that are highly interconnected and dynamic. Another important component is the set of human actors who get access to data and computing infrastructure. The cloud infrastructure...... exercise for cloud infrastructures using the socio-technical model developed in the TRESPASS project; after showing how to model typical components of a cloud infrastructure, we show how attacks are identified on this model and discuss their connection to risk assessment. The technical part of the model...... is extracted automatically from the configuration of the cloud infrastructure, which is especially important for systems so dynamic and complex....

  10. FRAT-up, a Web-based fall-risk assessment tool for elderly people living in the community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattelani, Luca; Palumbo, Pierpaolo; Palmerini, Luca; Bandinelli, Stefania; Becker, Clemens; Chesani, Federico; Chiari, Lorenzo

    2015-02-18

    About 30% of people over 65 are subject to at least one unintentional fall a year. Fall prevention protocols and interventions can decrease the number of falls. To be effective, a prevention strategy requires a prior step to evaluate the fall risk of the subjects. Despite extensive research, existing assessment tools for fall risk have been insufficient for predicting falls. The goal of this study is to present a novel web-based fall-risk assessment tool (FRAT-up) and to evaluate its accuracy in predicting falls, within a context of community-dwelling persons aged 65 and up. FRAT-up is based on the assumption that a subject's fall risk is given by the contribution of their exposure to each of the known fall-risk factors. Many scientific studies have investigated the relationship between falls and risk factors. The majority of these studies adopted statistical approaches, usually providing quantitative information such as odds ratios. FRAT-up exploits these numerical results to compute how each single factor contributes to the overall fall risk. FRAT-up is based on a formal ontology that enlists a number of known risk factors, together with quantitative findings in terms of odds ratios. From such information, an automatic algorithm generates a rule-based probabilistic logic program, that is, a set of rules for each risk factor. The rule-based program takes the health profile of the subject (in terms of exposure to the risk factors) and computes the fall risk. A Web-based interface allows users to input health profiles and to visualize the risk assessment for the given subject. FRAT-up has been evaluated on the InCHIANTI Study dataset, a representative population-based study of older persons living in the Chianti area (Tuscany, Italy). We compared reported falls with predicted ones and computed performance indicators. The obtained area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic was 0.642 (95% CI 0.614-0.669), while the Brier score was 0.174. The Hosmer

  11. Genomic-based tools for the risk assessment, management, and prevention of type 2 diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johansen Taber KA

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Katherine A Johansen Taber, Barry D DickinsonDepartment of Science and Biotechnology, American Medical Association, Chicago, IL, USAAbstract: Type 2 diabetes (T2D is a common and serious disorder and is a significant risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease, neuropathy, nephropathy, retinopathy, periodontal disease, and foot ulcers and amputations. The burden of disease associated with T2D has led to an emphasis on early identification of the millions of individuals at high risk so that management and intervention strategies can be effectively implemented before disease progression begins. With increasing knowledge about the genetic basis of T2D, several genomic-based strategies have been tested for their ability to improve risk assessment, management and prevention. Genetic risk scores have been developed with the intent to more accurately identify those at risk for T2D and to potentially improve motivation and adherence to lifestyle modification programs. In addition, evidence is building that oral antihyperglycemic medications are subject to pharmacogenomic variation in a substantial number of patients, suggesting genomics may soon play a role in determining the most effective therapies. T2D is a complex disease that affects individuals differently, and risk prediction and treatment may be challenging for health care providers. Genomic approaches hold promise for their potential to improve risk prediction and tailor management for individual patients and to contribute to better health outcomes for those with T2D.Keywords: diabetes, genomic, risk prediction, management

  12. Risk Assessment as an Environmental Management Tool: Considerations for Freshwater Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. Dennis Lemly

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents a foundation for improving the risk assessment process for freshwater wetlands. Integrating wetland science, i.e., use of an ecosystem-based approach, is the key concept. Each biotic and abiotic wetland component should be identified and its contribution to ecosystem functions and societal values determined when deciding whether a stressor poses an...

  13. A new Web-based medical tool for assessment and prevention of comprehensive cardiovascular risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Franchi

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Daniele Franchi1,2, Davide Cini1, Giorgio Iervasi11Istituto di Fisiologia Clinica, CNR, Pisa, Italy; 2Dipartimento di Oncologia, dei Trapianti e delle Nuove Tecnologie in Medicina, Università di Pisa, Pisa, ItalyBackground: Multifactor cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death; besides well-known cardiovascular risk factors, several emerging factors such as mental stress, diet type, and physical inactivity, have been associated to cardiovascular disease. To date, preventive strategies are based on the concept of absolute risk calculated by different algorithms and scoring systems. However, in general practice the patient's data collection represents a critical issue.Design: A new multipurpose computer-based program has been developed in order to:1 easily calculate and compare the absolute cardiovascular risk by the Framingham, Procam, and Progetto Cuore algorithms; 2 to design a web-based computerized tool for prospective collection of structured data; 3 to support the doctor in the decision-making process for patients at risk according to recent international guidelines.Methods: During a medical consultation the doctor utilizes a common computer connected by Internet to a medical server where all the patient's data and software reside. The program evaluates absolute and relative cardiovascular risk factors, personalized patient's goals, and multiparametric trends, monitors critical parameter values, and generates an automated medical report.Results: In a pilot study on 294 patients (47% males; mean age 60 ± 12 years [± SD] the global time to collect data at first consultation was 13 ± 11 minutes which declined to 8 ± 7 minutes at the subsequent consultation. In 48.2% of cases the program revealed 2 or more primary risk factor parameters outside guideline indications and gave specific clinical suggestions to return altered parameters to target values.Conclusion: The web-based system proposed here may represent a feasible and

  14. Development and pilot feasibility study of a health information technology tool to calculate mortality risk for patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis: the Carotid Risk Assessment Tool (CARAT)

    OpenAIRE

    Faerber, Adrienne E; Horvath, Rebecca; Stillman, Carey; O?Connell, Melissa L; Hamilton, Amy L; Newhall, Karina A; Likosky, Donald S; Goodney, Philip P

    2015-01-01

    Background Patients with no history of stroke but with stenosis of the carotid arteries can reduce the risk of future stroke with surgery or stenting. At present, a physicians? ability to recommend optimal treatments based on an individual?s risk profile requires estimating the likelihood that a patient will have a poor peri-operative outcomes and the likelihood that the patient will survive long enough to gain benefit from the procedure. We describe the development of the CArotid Risk Assess...

  15. Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT): study protocol for a predictive algorithm assessing dementia risk in the community

    OpenAIRE

    Fisher, Stacey; Hsu, Amy; Mojaverian, Nassim; Taljaard, Monica; Huyer, Gregory; Manuel, Douglas G; Tanuseputro, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Introduction The burden of disease from dementia is a growing global concern as incidence increases dramatically with age, and average life expectancy has been increasing around the world. Planning for an ageing population requires reliable projections of dementia prevalence; however, existing population projections are simple and have poor predictive accuracy. The Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT) will predict incidence of dementia in the population setting using multivariable modellin...

  16. Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool (Y-ARAT): The development of an actuarial risk assessment instrument for predicting general offense recidivism on the basis of police records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Put, Claudia E

    2014-06-01

    Estimating the risk for recidivism is important for many areas of the criminal justice system. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool (Y-ARAT) was developed for juvenile offenders based solely on police records, with the aim to estimate the risk of general recidivism among large groups of juvenile offenders by police officers without clinical expertise. On the basis of the Y-ARAT, juvenile offenders are classified into five risk groups based on (combinations of) 10 variables including different types of incidents in which the juvenile was a suspect, total number of incidents in which the juvenile was a suspect, total number of other incidents, total number of incidents in which co-occupants at the youth's address were suspects, gender, and age at first incident. The Y-ARAT was developed on a sample of 2,501 juvenile offenders and validated on another sample of 2,499 juvenile offenders, showing moderate predictive accuracy (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve = .73), with little variation between the construction and validation sample. The predictive accuracy of the Y-ARAT was considered sufficient to justify its use as a screening instrument for the police. © The Author(s) 2013.

  17. Become the PPUPET Master: Mastering Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment With the Pediatric Pressure Ulcer Prediction and Evaluation Tool (PPUPET).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterken, David J; Mooney, JoAnn; Ropele, Diana; Kett, Alysha; Vander Laan, Karen J

    2015-01-01

    Hospital acquired pressure ulcers (HAPU) are serious, debilitating, and preventable complications in all inpatient populations. Despite evidence of the development of pressure ulcers in the pediatric population, minimal research has been done. Based on observations gathered during quarterly HAPU audits, bedside nursing staff recognized trends in pressure ulcer locations that were not captured using current pressure ulcer risk assessment tools. Together, bedside nurses and nursing leadership created and conducted multiple research studies to investigate the validity and reliability of the Pediatric Pressure Ulcer Prediction and Evaluation Tool (PPUPET). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Stored CO2 and Methane Leakage Risk Assessment and Monitoring Tool Development: CO2 Capture Project Phase 2 (CCP2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dan Kieki

    2008-09-30

    The primary project goal is to develop and test tools for optimization of ECBM recovery and geologic storage of CO{sub 2} in coalbeds, in addition to tools for monitoring CO{sub 2} sequestration in coalbeds to support risk assessment. Three critical topics identified are (1) the integrity of coal bed methane geologic and engineered systems, (2) the optimization of the coal bed storage process, and (3) reliable monitoring and verification systems appropriate to the special conditions of CO{sub 2} storage and flow in coals.

  19. 76 FR 81955 - Assessment Questionnaire-IP Sector Specific Agency Risk Self Assessment Tool (IP-SSARSAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-29

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY [Docket No. DHS-2011-0069] Assessment Questionnaire--IP Sector... will be posted without alteration at http://www.regulations.gov , including any personal information... managers often volunteer to conduct an automated self risk assessment. The requested questionnaire...

  20. A two-question tool to assess the risk of repeated falls in the elderly.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Rodríguez-Molinero

    Full Text Available Older adults' perception of their own risk of fall has never been included into screening tools. The goal of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of questions on subjects' self-perception of their own risk of fall.This prospective study was conducted on a probabilistic sample of 772 Spanish community-dwelling older adults, who were followed-up for a one year period. At a baseline visit, subjects were asked about their recent history of falls (question 1: "Have you fallen in the last 6 months?", as well as on their perception of their own risk of fall by using two questions (question 2: "Do you think you may fall in the next few months?" possible answers: yes/no; question 3: "What is the probability that you fall in the next few months?" possible answers: low/intermediate/high. The follow-up consisted of quarterly telephone calls, where the number of falls occurred in that period was recorded.A short questionnaire built with questions 1 and 3 showed 70% sensitivity (95% CI: 56%-84%, 72% specificity (95% CI: 68%-76% and 0.74 area under the ROC curve (95% CI: 0.66-0.82 for prediction of repeated falls in the subsequent year.The estimation of one's own risk of fall has predictive validity for the occurrence of repeated falls in older adults. A short questionnaire including a question on perception of one's own risk of fall and a question on the recent history of falls had good predictive validity.

  1. A two-question tool to assess the risk of repeated falls in the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Molinero, Alejandro; Gálvez-Barrón, César; Narvaiza, Leire; Miñarro, Antonio; Ruiz, Jorge; Valldosera, Esther; Gonzalo, Natalia; Ng, Thalia; Sanguino, María Jesús; Yuste, Antonio

    2017-01-01

    Older adults' perception of their own risk of fall has never been included into screening tools. The goal of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of questions on subjects' self-perception of their own risk of fall. This prospective study was conducted on a probabilistic sample of 772 Spanish community-dwelling older adults, who were followed-up for a one year period. At a baseline visit, subjects were asked about their recent history of falls (question 1: "Have you fallen in the last 6 months?"), as well as on their perception of their own risk of fall by using two questions (question 2: "Do you think you may fall in the next few months?" possible answers: yes/no; question 3: "What is the probability that you fall in the next few months?" possible answers: low/intermediate/high). The follow-up consisted of quarterly telephone calls, where the number of falls occurred in that period was recorded. A short questionnaire built with questions 1 and 3 showed 70% sensitivity (95% CI: 56%-84%), 72% specificity (95% CI: 68%-76%) and 0.74 area under the ROC curve (95% CI: 0.66-0.82) for prediction of repeated falls in the subsequent year. The estimation of one's own risk of fall has predictive validity for the occurrence of repeated falls in older adults. A short questionnaire including a question on perception of one's own risk of fall and a question on the recent history of falls had good predictive validity.

  2. Engineering a mobile health tool for resource-poor settings to assess and manage cardiovascular disease risk: SMARThealth study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghu, Arvind; Praveen, Devarsetty; Peiris, David; Tarassenko, Lionel; Clifford, Gari

    2015-04-29

    The incidence of chronic diseases in low- and middle-income countries is rapidly increasing both in urban and rural regions. A major challenge for health systems globally is to develop innovative solutions for the prevention and control of these diseases. This paper discusses the development and pilot testing of SMARTHealth, a mobile-based, point-of-care Clinical Decision Support (CDS) tool to assess and manage cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in resource-constrained settings. Through pilot testing, the preliminary acceptability, utility, and efficiency of the CDS tool was obtained. The CDS tool was part of an mHealth system comprising a mobile application that consisted of an evidence-based risk prediction and management algorithm, and a server-side electronic medical record system. Through an agile development process and user-centred design approach, key features of the mobile application that fitted the requirements of the end users and environment were obtained. A comprehensive analytics framework facilitated a data-driven approach to investigate four areas, namely, system efficiency, end-user variability, manual data entry errors, and usefulness of point-of-care management recommendations to the healthcare worker. A four-point Likert scale was used at the end of every risk assessment to gauge ease-of-use of the system. The system was field-tested with eleven village healthcare workers and three Primary Health Centre doctors, who screened a total of 292 adults aged 40 years and above. 34% of participants screened by health workers were identified by the CDS tool to be high CVD risk and referred to a doctor. In-depth analysis of user interactions found the CDS tool feasible for use and easily integrable into the workflow of healthcare workers. Following completion of the pilot, further technical enhancements were implemented to improve uptake of the mHealth platform. It will then be evaluated for effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in a cluster randomized

  3. Environmental risk index: A tool to assess the safety of dams for leachate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colomer Mendoza, Francisco J.; Gallardo Izquierdo, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Dams for leachate store very toxic substances that contain a large amount of organic material and, probably, heavy metals; they therefore constitute an important threat to the environment. Existing models of environmental risk assessment for landfills do not take into consideration the specific risk that leachate dams may represent for the environment. In this paper a methodology to improve the environmental safety is presented according to the parameters used in their construction and management. In order to do that, the following characteristics of the dam must be known: (1) geotechnical stability, (2) erosion of downstream slope, (3) type of sealing of the dam, (4) overtopping probability, (5) volume of leachate stored inside the dam and (6) pollution load of leachate. Once these parameters have been calculated, they are transformed by means of rating curves into homogeneous units, so as to make it possible to operate between them. From the study and analysis of these parameters an environmental risk index for a dam for leachate can be calculated. If the environmental risk index exceeds an established value then it involves a dam for leachate with high environmental risk, therefore preventive measures in its design, construction and management would be necessary

  4. Numerical tool for tsunami risk assessment in the southern coast of Dominican Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macias Sanchez, J.; Llorente Isidro, M.; Ortega, S.; Gonzalez Vida, J. M., Sr.; Castro, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    The southern coast of Dominican Republic is a very populated region, with several important cities including Santo Domingo, its capital. Important activities are rooted in the southern coast including tourism, industry, commercial ports, and, energy facilities, among others. According to historical reports, it has been impacted by big earthquakes accompanied by tsunamis as in Azua in 1751 and recently Pedernales in 2010, but their sources are not clearly identified. The aim of the present work is to develop a numerical tool to simulate the impact in the southern coast of the Dominican Republic of tsunamis generated in the Caribbean Sea. This tool, based on the Tsunami-HySEA model from EDANYA group (University of Malaga, Spain), could be used in the framework of a Tsunami Early Warning Systems due the very short computing times when only propagation is computed or it could be used to assess inundation impact, computing inundation with a initial 5 meter resolution. Numerical results corresponding to three theoretical sources are used to test the numerical tool.

  5. Relapse Risk Assessment for Schizophrenia Patients (RASP): A New Self-Report Screening Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velligan, Dawn; Carpenter, William; Waters, Heidi C; Gerlanc, Nicole M; Legacy, Susan N; Ruetsch, Charles

    2018-01-01

    The Relapse Assessment for Schizophrenia Patients (RASP) was developed as a six-question self-report screener that measures indicators of Increased Anxiety and Social Isolation to assess patient stability and predict imminent relapse. This paper describes the development and psychometric characteristics of the RASP. The RASP and Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) were administered to patients with schizophrenia (n=166) three separate times. Chart data were collected on a subsample of patients (n=81). Psychometric analyses of RASP included tests of reliability, construct validity, and concurrent validity of items. Factors from RASP were correlated with subscales from PANSS (sensitivity to change and criterion validity [agreement between RASP and evidence of relapse]). Test-retest reliability returned modest to strong agreement at the item level and strong agreement at the questionnaire level. RASP showed good item response curves and internal consistency for the total instrument and within each of the two subscales (Increased Anxiety and Social Isolation). RASP Total Score and subscales showed good concurrent validity when correlated with PANSS Total Score, Positive, Excitement, and Anxiety subscales. RASP correctly predicted relapse in 67% of cases, with good specificity and negative predictive power and acceptable positive predictive power and sensitivity. The reliability and validity data presented support the use of RASP in settings where addition of a brief self-report assessment of relapse risk among patients with schizophrenia may be of benefit. Ease of use and scoring, and the ability to administer without clinical supervision allows for routine administration and assessment of relapse risk.

  6. Mesocosm soil ecological risk assessment tool for GMO 2nd tier studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'Annibale, Alessandra; Maraldo, Kristine; Larsen, Thomas

    Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of GMO is basically identical to ERA of chemical substances, when it comes to assessing specific effects of the GMO plant material on the soil ecosystem. The tiered approach always includes the option of studying more complex but still realistic ecosystem level...... effects in 2nd tier caged experimental systems, cf. the new GMO ERA guidance: EFSA Journal 2010; 8(11):1879. We propose to perform a trophic structure analysis, TSA, and include the trophic structure as an ecological endpoint to gain more direct insight into the change in interactions between species, i.......e. the food-web structure, instead of relying only on the indirect evidence from population abundances. The approach was applied for effect assessment in the agro-ecosystem where we combined factors of elevated CO2, viz. global climate change, and GMO plant effects. A multi-species (Collembola, Acari...

  7. A Comparison of the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 Tool With the Subjective Global Assessment Tool to Detect Nutritional Status in Chinese Patients Undergoing Surgery With Gastrointestinal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chi, Juntao; Yin, Shaohua; Zhu, Yongjian; Gao, Fengli; Song, Xinna; Song, Zhenlan; Lv, Junying; Li, Miaomiao

    The objectives of this study were to describe the nutritional status of Chinese patients with gastrointestinal cancer undergoing surgery and to compare the ease of use, diversity, and concordance of the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 with the Subjective Global Assessment in the same patients. A total of 280 gastrointestinal cancer patients admitted for elective surgery were evaluated by the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS 2002) and Subjective Global Assessment (SGA) tools within 48 hours of admission from April to October 2012. Related opinions about ease of using the tools were obtained from 10 nurses. The prevalence of patients at nutritional risk with the SGA and NRS 2002 was 33.9% and 53.2% on admission. In the total group, ≤70 age group, and >70 age group, respectively, consistency was observed in 214 (76.4%), 175 (91.1%), and 39 (44.3%); and kappa values were 0.54 (p 70 age group (p nutritional status of patients with gastrointestinal cancer undergoing surgery, but it appeared to detect more patients at nutritional risk in the >70 age group.

  8. Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and their Bioaccessibility in Meat: a Tool for Assessing Human Cancer Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamidi, Elliyana Nadia; Hajeb, Parvaneh; Selamat, Jinap; Abdull Razis, Ahmad Faizal

    2016-01-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are primarily formed as a result of thermal treatment of food, especially barbecuing or grilling. Contamination by PAHs is due to generation by direct pyrolysis of food nutrients and deposition from smoke produced through incomplete combustion of thermal agents. PAHs are ubiquitous compounds, well-known to be carcinogenic, which can reach the food in different ways. As an important human exposure pathway of contaminants, dietary intake of PAHs is of increasing concern for assessing cancer risk in the human body. In addition, the risks associated with consumption of barbecued meat may increase if consumers use cooking practices that enhance the concentrations of contaminants and their bioaccessibility. Since total PAHs always overestimate the actual amount that is available for absorption by the body, bioaccessibility of PAHs is to be preferred. Bioaccessibility of PAHs in food is the fraction of PAHs mobilized from food matrices during gastrointestinal digestion. An in vitro human digestion model was chosen for assessing the bioaccessibility of PAHs in food as it offers a simple, rapid, low cost alternative to human and animal studies; providing insights which may not be achievable in in vivo studies. Thus, this review aimed not only to provide an overview of general aspects of PAHs such as the formation, carcinogenicity, sources, occurrence, and factors affecting PAH concentrations, but also to enhance understanding of bioaccessibility assessment using an in vitro digestion model.

  9. Physiologically Based Toxicokinetic Modelling as a Tool to Support Risk Assessment: Three Case Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Mielke

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this contribution we present three case studies of physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK modelling in regulatory risk assessment. (1 Age-dependent lower enzyme expression in the newborn leads to bisphenol A (BPA blood levels which are near the levels of the tolerated daily intake (TDI at the oral exposure as calculated by EFSA. (2 Dermal exposure of BPA by receipts, car park tickets, and so forth, contribute to the exposure towards BPA. However, at the present levels of dermal exposure there is no risk for the adult. (3 Dermal exposure towards coumarin via cosmetic products leads to external exposures of two-fold the TDI. PBTK modeling helped to identify liver peak concentration as the metric for liver toxicity. After dermal exposure of twice the TDI, the liver peak concentration was lower than that present after oral exposure with the TDI dose. In the presented cases, PBTK modeling was useful to reach scientifically sound regulatory decisions.

  10. Developing a pipeline risk assessment tool for the upstream oil and gas industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paez, J.; Roy, A. [Talisman Energy Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This paper described an in-house pipeline risk assessment process developed by Talisman Energy. The semi-quantitative methodology was used to identify high-risk pipelines. The first phase of the methodology consisted of determining only the consequence of failures, while the second phase included a detailed, more traditional approach that considered consequences and the likelihood of failure. A mathematical algorithm was developed to generate a final consequence score between 0 and 4. The algorithm combined both public concern and environmental concern scores to form a base value for the health and safety score. A production score was then factored in to yield an overall consequence score. The algorithm yielded results consistent with real pipeline failure consequences. Phase 2 considered internal and external corrosion likelihood, historical likelihood, third party damage likelihood. and geotechnical likelihood. A cascading approach was to yield an overall likelihood score. Examples of the methodology were included. 9 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

  11. Smoking cessation: the potential role of risk assessment tools as motivational triggers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Robert P; Hopkins, Raewyn J; Smith, Melinda; Hogarth, D Kyle

    2010-01-01

    Smoking is the most important and preventable cause of morbidity and premature mortality in developed and developing countries. To date, efforts to reduce the burden of smoking have focused on non-personalised strategies. Anxiety about ill health, especially lung cancer and emphysema, is the foremost concern for smokers and a major reason for quitting. Recent efforts in cessation management focus on behaviour change and pharmacotherapy. The '3 Ts' (tension, trigger, treatment) model of behaviour change proposes that at any one time a smoker experiences varying degrees of motivational tension, which in the presence of a trigger may initiate or enhance quitting. Smokers' optimistic bias (ie, denial of one's own vulnerability) sustains continued smoking, while increasing motivational tension (eg, illness) favours quitting. The 1 year quit rates achieved when smokers encounter a life threatening event, such as a heart attack or lung cancer, are as much as 50-60%. Utilising tests of lung function and/or genetic susceptibility personalises the risk and have been reported to achieve 1 year quit rates of 25%. This is comparable to quit rates achieved among healthy motivated smokers using smoking cessation drug therapy. In this paper we review existing evidence and propose that identifying those smokers at increased risk of an adverse smoking related disease may be a useful motivational tool, and enhance existing public health strategies directed at smoking cessation.

  12. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  13. Prevention of MSD by means of ergonomic risk assessment (tools) in all phases of the vehicle development process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlheinz, Schaub; Michaela, Kugler; Max, Bierwirth; Andrea, Sinn-Behrendt; Ralph, Bruder

    2012-01-01

    In industrialized countries musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) play an import role and are often responsible for almost one third of the total sick leave. The changes in the demographic profiles, i.e. aging work forces might even worsen this situation in the future. For a highly productive and sustainable use of human resources in production systems, ergonomics offers high potentials. In the recent years the authors have developed several ergonomic risk assessment tools, especially for the use in automotive industries. These methods may be used during the planning phases in the Tech Centers as well as during the production phase at shop floor level. The tools might also be used for a standardized communication in between the Tech Center and the plants to improve the effects of "lessons learned" for the design and layout of workstations and processes and the optimization of vehicle components. This paper describes suitable risk assessment tools as well as the integration of these tools into the vehicle development process. It introduces a comprehensive management approach for the integration of ergonomics into the management of production systems.

  14. Validation of three tools for identifying painful new osteoporotic vertebral fractures in older Chinese men: bone mineral density, Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians, and fracture risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, JiSheng; Yang, Yong; Fei, Qi; Zhang, XiaoDong; Ma, Zhao; Wang, Qi; Li, JinJun; Li, Dong; Meng, Qian; Wang, BingQiang

    2016-01-01

    This cross-sectional study compared three tools for predicting painful new osteoporotic vertebral fractures (PNOVFs) in older Chinese men: bone mineral density (BMD), the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians (OSTA), and the World Health Organization fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) (without BMD). Men aged ≥50 years were apportioned to a group for men with fractures who had undergone percutaneous vertebroplasty (n=111), or a control group of healthy men (n=385). Fractures were verified on X-ray and magnetic resonance imaging. BMD T-scores were determined by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Diagnosis of osteoporosis was determined by a BMD T-score of ≤2.5 standard deviations below the average for a young adult at peak bone density at the femoral neck, total hip, or L1-L4. Demographic and clinical risk factor data were self-reported through a questionnaire. BMD, OSTA, and FRAX scores were assessed for identifying PNOVFs via receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Optimal cutoff points, sensitivity, specificity, and areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) were determined. Between the men with fractures and the control group, there were significant differences in BMD T-scores (at femoral neck, total hip, and L1-L4), and OSTA and FRAX scores. In those with fractures, only 53.15% satisfied the criteria for osteoporosis. Compared to BMD or OSTA, the FRAX score had the best predictive value for PNOVFs: the AUC of the FRAX score (cutoff =2.9%) was 0.738, and the sensitivity and specificity were 82% and 62%, respectively. FRAX may be a valuable tool for identifying PNOVFs in older Chinese men.

  15. Work-related stress risk assessment in Italy: the validation study of health safety and executive indicator tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Persechino, Benedetta; Castaldi, Tiziana; Valenti, Antonio; Ferrante, Pierpaolo; Ronchetti, Matteo; Iavicoli, Sergio

    2012-01-01

    In compliance with the Italian occupational health and safety regulatory framework, as provided by the Lgs. Decree 81/2008, the "work-related stress" risk assessment should follow the same principles as other risk assessments, in accordance with the European Agreement of 8 October 2004; therefore, validated and scientifically proven methodological tools are needed to conduct an adequate work-related stress risk assessment. The UK's Health Safety and Executive (HSE) Indicator Tool (IT) is used for assessing the risk of work-related stress. The aim of this study is to test the factor structure of IT as a measure of work-related stress in a sample of Italian workers. Data collected from 65 Italian organizations (6378 workers) was used for a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) on the 35-item seven-factor model. The results showed acceptable fit to the data (CFI .90; TLI .89, RMSEA .045). A second CFA was done to test a 35-item six-factor model (CFI .89, TLI .87, RMSEA .047). Both models were tested after removing six items (factor loadings less than .50.), resulting in a 29-item model. Here again, there was an acceptable fit to the data (29-item seven-factor model: CFI .93, TLI .91, RMSEA .044; 29-item six-factor model: CFI .92, TLI .90, RMSEA .046). These findings show that the HSE model satisfactorily adapts to use in a sample of Italian workers. One of the most important innovations introduced in the assessment of work-related stress with the HSE IT is the global approach for identifying work-related stress risk factors, aimed at establishing the best strategy from the viewpoints of prevention officers and also of workers.

  16. Breastfeeding assessment tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bizouerne, Cécile; Kerac, Marko; Macgrath, Marie

    2014-01-01

    Full text: Breastfeeding plays a major role in reducing the global burden of child mortality and under-nutrition. Whilst many programmes aim to support breastfeeding and prevent feeding problems occurring, interventions are also needed once they have developed. In this situation, accurate assessment of a problem is critical to inform prognosis and enables tailored, appropriate treatment. The presentation will present a review, which aims to identify breastfeeding assessment tools/checklists for use in assessing malnourished infants in poor resource settings. The literature review identified 24 breastfeeding assessment tools, and 41 validation studies. Evidence underpinning most of the tools was mainly low quality, and conducted in high-income countries and hospital settings. The presentation will describe the main findings of the literature review and propose recommendations for improving existing tools in order to appropriately assess malnourished infants and enable early, appropriate intervention and treatment of malnutrition. (author)

  17. Risk assessment as a management tool used to assess the effect of pesticide use in an irrigation system, situated in a semi-desert region

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Raschke, AM

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available be used as a predictive tool to determine as accurately as possible from the data available if a complete scientific health risk assessment study is justified. The actual amounts of pesticides sold in the Vaalharts area by two major pesticide manufacturers...

  18. Assessing Bioenergy Harvest Risks: Geospatially Explicit Tools for Maintaining Soil Productivity in Western US Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deborah Page-Dumroese

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Biomass harvesting for energy production and forest health can impact the soil resource by altering inherent chemical, physical and biological properties. These impacts raise concern about damaging sensitive forest soils, even with the prospect of maintaining vigorous forest growth through biomass harvesting operations. Current forest biomass harvesting research concurs that harvest impacts to the soil resource are region- and site-specific, although generalized knowledge from decades of research can be incorporated into management activities. Based upon the most current forest harvesting research, we compiled information on harvest activities that decrease, maintain or increase soil-site productivity. We then developed a soil chemical and physical property risk assessment within a geographic information system for a timber producing region within the Northern Rocky Mountain ecoregion. Digital soil and geology databases were used to construct geospatially explicit best management practices to maintain or enhance soil-site productivity. The proposed risk assessments could aid in identifying resilient soils for forest land managers considering biomass operations, policy makers contemplating expansion of biomass harvesting and investors deliberating where to locate bioenergy conversion facilities.

  19. Mini-Nutritional Assessment, Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool, and Nutrition Risk Screening Tool for the Nutritional Evaluation of Older Nursing Home Residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donini, Lorenzo M; Poggiogalle, Eleonora; Molfino, Alessio; Rosano, Aldo; Lenzi, Andrea; Rossi Fanelli, Filippo; Muscaritoli, Maurizio

    2016-10-01

    Malnutrition plays a major role in clinical and functional impairment in older adults. The use of validated, user-friendly and rapid screening tools for malnutrition in the elderly may improve the diagnosis and, possibly, the prognosis. The aim of this study was to assess the agreement between Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA), considered as a reference tool, MNA short form (MNA-SF), Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST), and Nutrition Risk Screening (NRS-2002) in elderly institutionalized participants. Participants were enrolled among nursing home residents and underwent a multidimensional evaluation. Predictive value and survival analysis were performed to compare the nutritional classifications obtained from the different tools. A total of 246 participants (164 women, age: 82.3 ± 9 years, and 82 men, age: 76.5 ± 11 years) were enrolled. Based on MNA, 22.6% of females and 17% of males were classified as malnourished; 56.7% of women and 61% of men were at risk of malnutrition. Agreement between MNA and MUST or NRS-2002 was classified as "fair" (k = 0.270 and 0.291, respectively; P < .001), whereas the agreement between MNA and MNA-SF was classified as "moderate" (k = 0.588; P < .001). Because of the high percentage of false negative participants, MUST and NRS-2002 presented a low overall predictive value compared with MNA and MNA-SF. Clinical parameters were significantly different in false negative participants with MUST or NRS-2002 from true negative and true positive individuals using the reference tool. For all screening tools, there was a significant association between malnutrition and mortality. MNA showed the best predictive value for survival among well-nourished participants. Functional, psychological, and cognitive parameters, not considered in MUST and NRS-2002 tools, are probably more important risk factors for malnutrition than acute illness in geriatric long-term care inpatient settings and may account for the low predictive

  20. The MULTIMEDIA exposure model as a risk assessment tool at LUST sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowers, R.B.

    1994-01-01

    In the course of characterizing Leaking Underground Storage Tank (LUST) sites in the Commonwealth, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VDEQ) regulations section 6.5.A.2.b of VR-680-13-02, requires that a risk assessment be performed which must address, among other issues, aqueous phase contaminant exposure levels to critical receptors. often, during the course of conducting such an assessment, the aqueous phase contaminant plume has not yet intercepted the critical down gradient receptor. Thus, the determination of the maximum potential exposure level to this receptor can only be made through the use of an appropriate fate and transport model. This paper focuses on an application of the saturated zone module of the USEPA's MULTIMEDIA Exposure Assessment model. The case study presented involves a LUST site in the Commonwealth, in which four critical receptors of leaded gasoline contaminated groundwater were identified. These receptors included three residential water wells and an intermittent stream. At this particular site, the aqueous phase contaminant plume had not yet reached any of the receptors; and the MULTIMEDIA model was employed to predict the steady-state aqueous phase concentrations with very favorable results

  1. Development of methodological tools for assessing enterprise credit worthiness taking into account off-balance sheet risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.G. Vygovska

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the improvement of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of enterprises’ legal entities taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks on the definite integral class of a debtor-borrower. The authors substantiate that the non-accounting of off-balance sheet commitments in assessing the borrower’s credit worthiness leads to false managerial decisions on granting a loan and increasing the level of credit risk of the bank. The purpose of the article is to study the questions of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of economic entities and develop directions for improving its analytical support taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks. The object of the research is the analytical support for assessing the credit worthiness of a borrower-legal entity taking into account off-balance-sheet risks. The authors put forward and proved the hypothesis that, acting as the guarantor or principal of another enterprise, the assessment of the borrower's credit worthiness undergoes significant changes. The coefficient analysis of the methodological provision for assessing the borrower's credit rating by the current method number 351 is carried out, as a result of which the influence on the integral index and the debtor class is proved. When determining the reliability class of the borrower, the most affected are solvency ratios (especially for short-term loans and financial sustainability (for long-term loans to the borrower. The current methodology for defining these indicators does not take into account the effect of off-balance sheet risks, which is due to the use of financial reporting data, which does not include data on off-balance sheet instruments. The methodological support of credit-worthiness analysis is proposed, taking into account the impact of off-balance sheet risks on it. The prospects for further research should be formulated in the direction of improving the

  2. Environmental biodosimetry: a biologically relevant tool for ecological risk assessment and biomonitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ulsh, B. E-mail: ulshb@mcmaster.ca; Hinton, T.G.; Congdon, J.D.; Dugan, L.C.; Whicker, F.W.; Bedford, J.S

    2003-07-01

    Biodosimetry, the estimation of received doses by determining the frequency of radiation-induced chromosome aberrations, is widely applied in humans acutely exposed as a result of accidents or for clinical purposes, but biodosimetric techniques have not been utilized in organisms chronically exposed to radionuclides in contaminated environments. The application of biodosimetry to environmental exposure scenarios could greatly improve the accuracy, and reduce the uncertainties, of ecological risk assessments and biomonitoring studies, because no assumptions are required regarding external exposure rates and the movement of organisms into and out of contaminated areas. Furthermore, unlike residue analyses of environmental media environmental biodosimetry provides a genetically relevant biomarker of cumulative lifetime exposure. Symmetrical chromosome translocations can impact reproductive success, and could therefore prove to be ecologically relevant as well. We describe our experience in studying aberrations in the yellow-bellied slider turtle as an example of environmental biodosimetry.

  3. Assessment of food safety practices of food service food handlers (risk assessment data): testing a communication intervention (evaluation of tools).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Benjamin; Eversley, Tiffany; Fillion, Katie; Maclaurin, Tanya; Powell, Douglas

    2010-06-01

    Globally, foodborne illness affects an estimated 30% of individuals annually. Meals prepared outside of the home are a risk factor for acquiring foodborne illness and have been implicated in up to 70% of traced outbreaks. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has called on food safety communicators to design new methods and messages aimed at increasing food safety risk-reduction practices from farm to fork. Food safety infosheets, a novel communication tool designed to appeal to food handlers and compel behavior change, were evaluated. Food safety infosheets were provided weekly to food handlers in working food service operations for 7 weeks. It was hypothesized that through the posting of food safety infosheets in highly visible locations, such as kitchen work areas and hand washing stations, that safe food handling behaviors of food service staff could be positively influenced. Using video observation, food handlers (n = 47) in eight food service operations were observed for a total of 348 h (pre- and postintervention combined). After the food safety infosheets were introduced, food handlers demonstrated a significant increase (6.7%, P < 0.05, 95% confidence interval) in mean hand washing attempts, and a significant reduction in indirect cross-contamination events (19.6%, P < 0.05, 95% confidence interval). Results of the research demonstrate that posting food safety infosheets is an effective intervention tool that positively influences the food safety behaviors of food handlers.

  4. Screening for older emergency department inpatients at risk of prolonged hospital stay: the brief geriatric assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Launay, Cyrille P; de Decker, Laure; Kabeshova, Anastasiia; Annweiler, Cédric; Beauchet, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    The aims of this study were 1) to confirm that combinations of brief geriatric assessment (BGA) items were significant risk factors for prolonged LHS among geriatric patients hospitalized in acute care medical units after their admission to the emergency department (ED); and 2) to determine whether these combinations of BGA items could be used as a prognostic tool of prolonged LHS. Based on a prospective observational cohort design, 1254 inpatients (mean age ± standard deviation, 84.9±5.9 years; 59.3% female) recruited upon their admission to ED and discharged in acute care medical units of Angers University Hospital, France, were selected in this study. At baseline assessment, a BGA was performed and included the following 6 items: age ≥85years, male gender, polypharmacy (i.e., ≥5 drugs per day), use of home-help services, history of falls in previous 6 months and temporal disorientation (i.e., inability to give the month and/or year). The LHS in acute care medical units was prospectively calculated in number of days using the hospital registry. Area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of prolonged LHS of different combinations of BGA items ranged from 0.50 to 0.57. Cox regression models revealed that combinations defining a high risk of prolonged LHS, identified from ROC curves, were significant risk factors for prolonged LHS (hazard ratio >1.16 with P>0.010). Kaplan-Meier distributions of discharge showed that inpatients classified in high-risk group of prolonged LHS were discharged later than those in low-risk group (PLHS of all combinations was poor with sensitivity under 77%, a high variation of specificity (from 26.6 to 97.4) and a low likelihood ratio of positive test under 5.6. Combinations of 6-item BGA tool were significant risk factors for prolonged LHS but their prognostic value was poor in the studied sample of older inpatients.

  5. How artificial intelligence tools can be used to assess individual patient risk in cardiovascular disease: problems with the current methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grossi Enzo

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years a number of algorithms for cardiovascular risk assessment has been proposed to the medical community. These algorithms consider a number of variables and express their results as the percentage risk of developing a major fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event in the following 10 to 20 years Discussion The author has identified three major pitfalls of these algorithms, linked to the limitation of the classical statistical approach in dealing with this kind of non linear and complex information. The pitfalls are the inability to capture the disease complexity, the inability to capture process dynamics, and the wide confidence interval of individual risk assessment. Artificial Intelligence tools can provide potential advantage in trying to overcome these limitations. The theoretical background and some application examples related to artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic have been reviewed and discussed. Summary The use of predictive algorithms to assess individual absolute risk of cardiovascular future events is currently hampered by methodological and mathematical flaws. The use of newer approaches, such as fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks, linked to artificial intelligence, seems to better address both the challenge of increasing complexity resulting from a correlation between predisposing factors, data on the occurrence of cardiovascular events, and the prediction of future events on an individual level.

  6. How artificial intelligence tools can be used to assess individual patient risk in cardiovascular disease: problems with the current methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossi, Enzo

    2006-05-03

    In recent years a number of algorithms for cardiovascular risk assessment has been proposed to the medical community. These algorithms consider a number of variables and express their results as the percentage risk of developing a major fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event in the following 10 to 20 years The author has identified three major pitfalls of these algorithms, linked to the limitation of the classical statistical approach in dealing with this kind of non linear and complex information. The pitfalls are the inability to capture the disease complexity, the inability to capture process dynamics, and the wide confidence interval of individual risk assessment. Artificial Intelligence tools can provide potential advantage in trying to overcome these limitations. The theoretical background and some application examples related to artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic have been reviewed and discussed. The use of predictive algorithms to assess individual absolute risk of cardiovascular future events is currently hampered by methodological and mathematical flaws. The use of newer approaches, such as fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks, linked to artificial intelligence, seems to better address both the challenge of increasing complexity resulting from a correlation between predisposing factors, data on the occurrence of cardiovascular events, and the prediction of future events on an individual level.

  7. Proposal for the testing of a tool for assessing the risk of dehydration in the elderly patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulgarelli, Ketty

    2015-09-09

    Dehydration is now the most common fluid and electrolyte disorder in older people. Because it is often associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality, it requires careful control and prevention in the context of a thorough primary care. The main risk factor for dehydration was the low intake of water by mouth for several reasons, such as lack of autonomy, altered mental status, decreased sensation of thirst, social and environmental problems. To this may be added an increase in fluid loss caused by fever, vomiting, diarrhoea, bleeding etc., the use of diuretics or laxatives and the onset of diseases that induce an increase in the loss of urine (e.g. diabetes). This paper aims to locate a tool for assessing the risk among those reported in the literature that is easy to use for the nurse and to experiment with it on a sample of patients. An analysis of the literature showed the reliability of an instrument for assessing the risk of dehydration by the name of "Dehydration Risk Appraisal Checklist." In order to verify its usefulness in identifying the risk of dehydration, 2 groups of elderly persons at the OU Geriatrics and long-term care unit of the Azienda USL of Piacenza and the OU complex Geriatric Clinic of the University Hospital of Parma were investigated. Patients in both groups were assessed on admission by the assessment scale MNA (Mini Nutritional Assessment) and by the sheet of quantitative evaluation of the meal consumed. One group was considered as the "control group". Patients belonging to the other group, which was regarded as the "experimental group", in addition to the two above-mentioned instruments, were also assessed by the "Dehydration risk appraisal checklist". In both groups, the presence or absence of four indicators of dehydration measured at the time of and immediately before discharge was then detected. In the presence of each indicator of dehydration one point was awarded for a comprehensive evaluation. The data collected were

  8. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  9. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  10. Identification of risk factors for moral distress in nurses: basis for the development of a new assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Rafaela; Zoboli, Elma Lourdes Campos Pavone; Vieira, Margarida

    2016-12-01

    This article proposes to identify risk factors for moral distress from the literature, validate them through expert analysis and provide the basis for a new tool to assess the risk of moral distress among nurses. Moral distress is related to the psychological, emotional and physiological aspects of nursing. It arises from constraints caused by various circumstances and can lead to significant negative consequences. A scoping review and validation through expert analysis were used. The research question guiding this study was as follows: What is known about risk factors for moral distress in nursing? The research was conducted using multiple sources including electronic databases and lists of references from relevant literature. The final sample consisted of 38 studies. A validation analysis was conducted by experts during December 2014 and June 2015. To exclude a risk factor item, at least 80% of the experts had to agree with the exclusion. In total, 53 risk factors for moral distress were identified, reviewed by the experts and grouped to form a new instrument that may help to identify risk for moral distress and to address its consequences. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Optimization method to determine mass transfer variables in a PWR crud deposition risk assessment tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Do, Chuong; Hussey, Dennis; Wells, Daniel M.; Epperson, Kenny

    2016-01-01

    Optimization numerical method was implemented to determine several mass transfer coefficients in a crud-induced power shift risk assessment code. The approach was to utilize a multilevel strategy that targets different model parameters that first changes the major order variables, mass transfer inputs, then calibrates the minor order variables, crud source terms, according to available plant data. In this manner, the mass transfer inputs are effectively simplified as 'dependent' on the crud source terms. Two optimization studies were performed using DAKOTA, a design and analysis toolkit, with the difference between the runs, being the number of model runs using BOA, allowed for adjusting the crud source terms, therefore, reducing the uncertainty with calibration. The result of the first case showed that the current best estimated values for the mass transfer coefficients, which were derived from first principle analysis, can be considered an optimized set. When the run limit of BOA was increased for the second case, an improvement in the prediction was obtained with the results deviating slightly from the best estimated values. (author)

  12. Evaluation of the Cochrane tool for assessing risk of bias in randomized clinical trials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, L; Paludan-Müller, A. S.; Laursen, David

    2016-01-01

    the tool is applied to both Cochrane and non-Cochrane systematic reviews. Methods: A review of published comments (searches in PubMed, The Cochrane Methodology Register and Google Scholar) and an observational study (100 Cochrane and 100 non-Cochrane reviews from 2014). Results: Our review included 68...

  13. Application of modeling tools for risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials in aquatic systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ondiaka, M

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Globally, engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are increasingly being used in nanoproducts to improve their performance. The multi-stage lifecycle of ENMs increases their potential risk profiles to different environmental systems, for example, due...

  14. A new stratified risk assessment tool for whiplash injuries developed from a prospective observational study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasch, Helge; Kongsted, Alice; Qerama, Erisela

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: An initial stratification of acute whiplash patients into seven risk-strata in relation to 1-year work disability as primary outcome is presented. DESIGN: The design was an observational prospective study of risk factors embedded in a randomised controlled study. SETTING: Acute whiplash...... patients from units, general practitioners in four Danish counties were referred to two research centres. PARTICIPANTS: During a 2-year inclusion period, acute consecutive whiplash-injured (age 18-70 years, rear-end or frontal-end car accident and WAD (whiplash-associated disorders) grades I-III, symptoms...... and examined by a study nurse after 5 days; 605 were completed after 1 year. A risk score which included items of initial neck pain/headache intensity, a number of non-painful complaints and active neck mobility was applied. The primary outcome parameter was 1-year work disability. RESULTS: The risk score...

  15. A review on the performance of osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians in determining osteoporosis and fracture risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Kok-Yong

    2017-09-01

    The prevalence of osteoporosis in Asian countries is growing. An effective screening method will enable patients at risk for osteoporosis to receive early diagnosis and treatment, and avoid overcrowding the limited dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) machines available in Asian countries. Many simple osteoporosis screening algorithms have been developed but they are not validated for use in Asian populations. osteoporosis self-assessment tools for Asians (OSTA), established using a multinational Asian cohort, is the first screening algorithm that caters for the Asian populations. It considers only body weight and age in the algorithm. It shows consistently high performance and sensitivity in identifying postmenopausal women at risk for osteoporosis in many Asian countries. Its usage has been expanded for identifying osteoporosis in men, as well as determining fracture risk for both sexes. However, the performance of OSTA is influenced by age, sex, ethnicity and site of BMD measurement to define osteoporosis. Its usage is also limited in individuals without apparent risk factors. These limitations should be noted by physicians considering the use of OSTA in clinical setting. As a conclusion, OSTA is a cost-effective measure for osteoporosis screening in primary healthcare setting.

  16. Coach assessment tool

    OpenAIRE

    Härkönen, Niko; Klicznik, Roman

    2014-01-01

    The Coach Assessment Tool was created to assist coaches of all sports for their own development. The starting point to develop the tool is the fact that coaching clinics solely focus on the technical and tactial skills of the sport. The education for coaches is lacking to teach the importance of the coach´s behavior towards their athletes. The question is how to teach properly the task in hand to increase the athlete´s performance considering the coach´s behavior. Nevertheless,...

  17. Screening for Older Emergency Department Inpatients at Risk of Prolonged Hospital Stay: The Brief Geriatric Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Launay, Cyrille P.; de Decker, Laure; Kabeshova, Anastasiia; Annweiler, Cédric; Beauchet, Olivier

    2014-01-01

    Background The aims of this study were 1) to confirm that combinations of brief geriatric assessment (BGA) items were significant risk factors for prolonged LHS among geriatric patients hospitalized in acute care medical units after their admission to the emergency department (ED); and 2) to determine whether these combinations of BGA items could be used as a prognostic tool of prolonged LHS. Methods Based on a prospective observational cohort design, 1254 inpatients (mean age ± standard deviation, 84.9±5.9 years; 59.3% female) recruited upon their admission to ED and discharged in acute care medical units of Angers University Hospital, France, were selected in this study. At baseline assessment, a BGA was performed and included the following 6 items: age ≥85years, male gender, polypharmacy (i.e., ≥5 drugs per day), use of home-help services, history of falls in previous 6 months and temporal disorientation (i.e., inability to give the month and/or year). The LHS in acute care medical units was prospectively calculated in number of days using the hospital registry. Results Area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of prolonged LHS of different combinations of BGA items ranged from 0.50 to 0.57. Cox regression models revealed that combinations defining a high risk of prolonged LHS, identified from ROC curves, were significant risk factors for prolonged LHS (hazard ratio >1.16 with P>0.010). Kaplan-Meier distributions of discharge showed that inpatients classified in high-risk group of prolonged LHS were discharged later than those in low-risk group (Prisk factors for prolonged LHS but their prognostic value was poor in the studied sample of older inpatients. PMID:25333271

  18. RAVEN AS A TOOL FOR DYNAMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT: SOFTWARE OVERVIEW

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfonsi Andrea; Mandelli Diego; Rabiti Cristian; Joshua Cogliati; Robert Kinoshita

    2013-05-01

    RAVEN is a software tool under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing tool for the newly developed Thermo-Hydraylic code RELAP- 7. The scope of this paper is to show the software structure of RAVEN and its utilization in connection with RELAP-7. A short overview of the mathematical framework behind the code is presented along with its main capabilities such as on-line controlling/monitoring and Monte-Carlo sampling. A demo of a Station Black Out PRA analysis of a simplified Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) model is shown in order to demonstrate the Monte-Carlo and clustering capabilities.

  19. Screening for older emergency department inpatients at risk of prolonged hospital stay: the brief geriatric assessment tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cyrille P Launay

    Full Text Available The aims of this study were 1 to confirm that combinations of brief geriatric assessment (BGA items were significant risk factors for prolonged LHS among geriatric patients hospitalized in acute care medical units after their admission to the emergency department (ED; and 2 to determine whether these combinations of BGA items could be used as a prognostic tool of prolonged LHS.Based on a prospective observational cohort design, 1254 inpatients (mean age ± standard deviation, 84.9±5.9 years; 59.3% female recruited upon their admission to ED and discharged in acute care medical units of Angers University Hospital, France, were selected in this study. At baseline assessment, a BGA was performed and included the following 6 items: age ≥85years, male gender, polypharmacy (i.e., ≥5 drugs per day, use of home-help services, history of falls in previous 6 months and temporal disorientation (i.e., inability to give the month and/or year. The LHS in acute care medical units was prospectively calculated in number of days using the hospital registry.Area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves of prolonged LHS of different combinations of BGA items ranged from 0.50 to 0.57. Cox regression models revealed that combinations defining a high risk of prolonged LHS, identified from ROC curves, were significant risk factors for prolonged LHS (hazard ratio >1.16 with P>0.010. Kaplan-Meier distributions of discharge showed that inpatients classified in high-risk group of prolonged LHS were discharged later than those in low-risk group (P<0.003. Prognostic value for prolonged LHS of all combinations was poor with sensitivity under 77%, a high variation of specificity (from 26.6 to 97.4 and a low likelihood ratio of positive test under 5.6.Combinations of 6-item BGA tool were significant risk factors for prolonged LHS but their prognostic value was poor in the studied sample of older inpatients.

  20. Does diagnosis affect the predictive accuracy of risk assessment tools for juvenile offenders: Conduct Disorder and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanna, Dinesh; Shaw, Jenny; Dolan, Mairead; Lennox, Charlotte

    2014-10-01

    Studies have suggested an increased risk of criminality in juveniles if they suffer from co-morbid Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) along with Conduct Disorder. The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), the Psychopathy Checklist Youth Version (PCL:YV), and Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) have been shown to be good predictors of violent and non-violent re-offending. The aim was to compare the accuracy of these tools to predict violent and non-violent re-offending in young people with co-morbid ADHD and Conduct Disorder and Conduct Disorder only. The sample included 109 White-British adolescent males in secure settings. Results revealed no significant differences between the groups for re-offending. SAVRY factors had better predictive values than PCL:YV or YLS/CMI. Tools generally had better predictive values for the Conduct Disorder only group than the co-morbid group. Possible reasons for these findings have been discussed along with limitations of the study. Copyright © 2014 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The implication of assessing a polymorphism in estrogen receptor alpha gene in the risk assessment of osteoporosis using a screening tool for osteoporosis in Asians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ongphiphadhanakul, Boonsong; Chanprasertyothin, Suwannee; Payattikul, Penpan; Saetung, Sunee; Rajatanavin, Rajata

    2003-10-01

    Both genetic and environmental factors interact to determine bone mass and the risk for developing postmenopausal osteoporosis. Recently, an Asian-specific tool, the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians (OSTA), has been developed to assess the risk of osteoporosis in women. An index is calculated by multiplying the difference in body weight in kilograms and age in years by 0.2 and disregarding the decimal digits. The risk of osteoporosis is classified as high, intermediate or low according to the OSTA index less than -4, -4 to -1 and greater than -1. In the present study we examined how a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in exon 8 of the estrogen receptor alpha (ERalpha) gene affected the predictive value of the OSTA index. Subjects consisted of 358 postmenopausal women who were at least 55 years old. BMDs were measured by DXA, and the SNP in the ERalpha gene was assessed by PCR-RFLP. When considering both the OSTA index and ERalpha genotype in a logistic regression model, it was found that both the OSTA index and the ERalpha genotype independently contributed to the risk of osteoporosis. The odds ratios were 1.58 (95% CI 1.26-1.91) and 2.51 (95% CI 1.42-4.44) for one unit decrement in the OSTA index and each copy of the A allele of the ERalpha genotype, respectively. The joint effect conformed more to a multiplicative model of interaction than an additive model. This suggests that persons with the high-risk genotype are at far greater risk of developing osteoporosis with advancing age or decreasing body weight, the two variables from which the OSTA index is derived. Targeting preventive measures for osteoporosis subjects with risk factors and also disease-susceptibility alleles is likely to be more cost effective.

  2. A new stratified risk assessment tool for whiplash injuries developed from a prospective observational study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasch, Helge; Kongsted, Alice; Qerama, Erisela

    2013-01-01

    within 72 h, examination prior to 10 days postinjury, capable of written/spoken Danish, without other injuries/fractures, pre-existing significant somatic/psychiatric disorder, drug/alcohol abuse and previous significant pain/headache). 688 (438 women and 250 men) participants were interviewed......OBJECTIVES: An initial stratification of acute whiplash patients into seven risk-strata in relation to 1-year work disability as primary outcome is presented. DESIGN: The design was an observational prospective study of risk factors embedded in a randomised controlled study. SETTING: Acute whiplash...... and number of sick-listing days were related (Kruskal-Wallis, p

  3. MATILDA: A Military Laser Range Safety Tool Based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-01

    3 2.1 UK Need for a PRA-Based Approach ............................................................... 3 2.2 A Risk-Based Approach to...Figure 6: MATILDA Coordinate Transformations ....................................................... 22  Figure 7: Geocentric and MICS Coordinates...Star-Shaped Condition ................................................................................. 27  Figure 11: Points of Closest Approach

  4. Modified social ecological model: a tool to guide the assessment of the risks and risk contexts of HIV epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baral, Stefan; Logie, Carmen H; Grosso, Ashley; Wirtz, Andrea L; Beyrer, Chris

    2013-05-17

    Social and structural factors are now well accepted as determinants of HIV vulnerabilities. These factors are representative of social, economic, organizational and political inequities. Associated with an improved understanding of multiple levels of HIV risk has been the recognition of the need to implement multi-level HIV prevention strategies. Prevention sciences research and programming aiming to decrease HIV incidence requires epidemiologic studies to collect data on multiple levels of risk to inform combination HIV prevention packages. Proximal individual-level risks, such as sharing injection devices and unprotected penile-vaginal or penile-anal sex, are necessary in mediating HIV acquisition and transmission. However, higher order social and structural-level risks can facilitate or reduce HIV transmission on population levels. Data characterizing these risks is often far more actionable than characterizing individual-level risks. We propose a modified social ecological model (MSEM) to help visualize multi-level domains of HIV infection risks and guide the development of epidemiologic HIV studies. Such a model may inform research in epidemiology and prevention sciences, particularly for key populations including men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PID), and sex workers. The MSEM builds on existing frameworks by examining multi-level risk contexts for HIV infection and situating individual HIV infection risks within wider network, community, and public policy contexts as well as epidemic stage. The utility of the MSEM is demonstrated with case studies of HIV risk among PID and MSM. The MSEM is a flexible model for guiding epidemiologic studies among key populations at risk for HIV in diverse sociocultural contexts. Successful HIV prevention strategies for key populations require effective integration of evidence-based biomedical, behavioral, and structural interventions. While the focus of epidemiologic studies has traditionally been on

  5. Seabird aggregative patterns: a new tool for offshore wind energy risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christel, Isadora; Certain, Grégoire; Cama, Albert; Vieites, David R; Ferrer, Xavier

    2013-01-15

    The emerging development of offshore wind energy has raised public concern over its impact on seabird communities. There is a need for an adequate methodology to determine its potential impacts on seabirds. Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are mostly relying on a succession of plain density maps without integrated interpretation of seabird spatio-temporal variability. Using Taylor's power law coupled with mixed effect models, the spatio-temporal variability of species' distributions can be synthesized in a measure of the aggregation levels of individuals over time and space. Applying the method to a seabird aerial survey in the Ebro Delta, NW Mediterranean Sea, we were able to make an explicit distinction between transitional and feeding areas to define and map the potential impacts of an offshore wind farm project. We use the Ebro Delta study case to discuss the advantages of potential impacts maps over density maps, as well as to illustrate how these potential impact maps can be applied to inform on concern levels, optimal EIA design and monitoring in the assessment of local offshore wind energy projects. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The modified "Rockfall Hazard Rating System": a new tool for roads risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budetta, P.

    2003-04-01

    This paper contains a modified method for the analysis of rockfall hazard along roads and motorways. The method is derived from that one developed by Pierson et alii at the Oregon State Highway Division. The Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) provides a rational way to make informed decisions on where and how to spend construction funds. An exponential scoring graph is used to represent the increase in hazard that is reflected in the nine categories forming the classification (slope height, ditch effectiveness, average vehicle risk, percent of decision site distance, roadway width, geological character, quantity of rockfall/event, climate and rock fall history). The resulting total score contains the essential elements regarding the evaluation of the consequences ("cost of failure"). In the modified method, the rating for the categories "ditch effectiveness", "decision sight distance", "rodway width", "geologic characteristic" and "climate and water circulation" have been rendered more easy and objective. The main modifications regard the introduction of the Romana's Slope Mass Rating improving the estimate of the geologic characteristics, of the volume of the potentially unstable blocks and underground water circulation. Other modifications regard the scoring determination for the categories "decision sight distance" and "road geometry". For these categories, the Italian National Council's standards (CNR) have been used. The method must be applied in both the traffic directions because the percentage of reduction in the "decision sight distance" greatly affects the results. An application of the method to a 2-km-long section of the Sorrentine road (n° 145) in Southern Italy was pointed out. A high traffic intensity affects the entire section of the road and rockfalls periodically cause casualties, as well as a large amount of damage and traffic interruptions. The method was applied on seven cross section traces of slopes adjacent to the Sorrentine road and the

  7. Probabilistic Flood Defence Assessment Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slomp Robert

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The WTI2017 project is responsible for the development of flood defence assessment tools for the 3600 km of Dutch primary flood defences, dikes/levees, dunes and hydraulic structures. These tools are necessary, as per January 1st 2017, the new flood risk management policy for the Netherlands will be implemented. Then, the seven decades old design practice (maximum water level methodology of 1958 and two decades old safety standards (and maximum hydraulic load methodology of 1996 will formally be replaced by a more risked based approach for the national policy in flood risk management. The formal flood defence assessment is an important part of this new policy, especially for flood defence managers, since national and regional funding for reinforcement is based on this assessment. This new flood defence policy is based on a maximum allowable probability of flooding. For this, a maximum acceptable individual risk was determined at 1/100 000 per year, this is the probability of life loss of for every protected area in the Netherlands. Safety standards of flood defences were then determined based on this acceptable individual risk. The results were adjusted based on information from cost -benefit analysis, societal risk and large scale societal disruption due to the failure of critical infrastructure e.g. power stations. The resulting riskbased flood defence safety standards range from a 300 to a 100 000 year return period for failure. Two policy studies, WV21 (Safety from floods in the 21st century and VNK-2 (the National Flood Risk in 2010 provided the essential information to determine the new risk based safety standards for flood defences. The WTI2017 project will provide the safety assessment tools based on these new standards and is thus an essential element for the implementation of this policy change. A major issue to be tackled was the development of user-friendly tools, as the new assessment is to be carried out by personnel of the

  8. Use of an Integrated Tool for Interpretation of Blood Glucose Data Improves Correctness of Glycemic Risk Assessment in Individuals With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkin, Christopher G; Schwenke, Stephanie; Ossege, Anna Katharina; Gruchmann, Torsten

    2017-01-01

    Manufacturers now incorporate blood glucose (bG) value interpretation tools into their monitoring systems; however, usability of these support tools has not been well studied. We evaluated the utility and perceived benefits of support tool use by individuals with type 1 (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). This 3-arm, randomized, simulation study assessed the impact of use of bG value interpretation support tools on participants' ability to correctly interpret bG values, using 1 of 3 tools: a new tool that uses colored scales with target range indicator (TRI), Colors and Smiley icons (already available). Participants assessed 50 bG values without use of any tool and repeated the assessment using 1 of the 3 tool configurations. Changes in percentage of correct responses when using a support tool and user perceptions were assessed. Data sets from 140 participants were analyzed. Increases in correct responses were seen in all study groups but most notably in the TRI group (26%, P .627). Most TRI users felt confident (94%), agreed the tool will help them identify high and low values (96%) and will help them to make correct insulin dosage decisions (80%). Use of the TRI significantly increases users' ability to correctly and confidently determine their glycemic risk when self-monitoring bG levels. This suggests the tool may offer clinical value to individuals with T1D and T2D.

  9. Cesium-137, a tool for the assessment and the management of erosion risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, C.; Mabit, L.; Laverdière, M.R.; Wicherek, S.

    1998-01-01

    eroding banks. The literature review along with examples provided by the authors highlight that the 137Cs technique may be an interesting complement to more conventional methods for assessing erosion and sedimentation [fr

  10. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  11. Development and validation of the FRAGIRE tool for assessment an older person’s risk for frailty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewi Vernerey

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Frailty is highly prevalent in elderly people. While significant progress has been made to understand its pathogenesis process, few validated questionnaire exist to assess the multidimensional concept of frailty and to detect people frail or at risk to become frail. The objectives of this study were to construct and validate a new frailty-screening instrument named Frailty Groupe Iso-Ressource Evaluation (FRAGIRE that accurately predicts the risk for frailty in older adults. Methods A prospective multicenter recruitment of the elderly patients was undertaken in France. The subjects were classified into financially-helped group (FH, with financial assistance and non-financially helped group (NFH, without any financial assistance, considering FH subjects are more frail than the NFH group and thus representing an acceptable surrogate population for frailty. Psychometric properties of the FRAGIRE grid were assessed including discrimination between the FH and NFH groups. Items reduction was made according to statistical analyses and experts’ point of view. The association between items response and tests with “help requested status” was assessed in univariate and multivariate unconditional logistic regression analyses and a prognostic score to become frail was finally proposed for each subject. Results Between May 2013 and July 2013, 385 subjects were included: 338 (88% in the FH group and 47 (12% in the NFH group. The initial FRAGIRE grid included 65 items. After conducting the item selection, the final grid of the FRAGIRE was reduced to 19 items. The final grid showed fair discrimination ability to predict frailty (area under the curve (AUC = 0.85 and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P-value = 0.580, reflecting a good agreement between the prediction by the final model and actual observation. The Cronbach's alpha for the developed tool scored as high as 0.69 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.64 to 0.74. The final

  12. MEETING IN CHICAGO: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  13. SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING AND RISK ASSESSMENT (SLIDE PRESENTATION)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  14. MEETING IN CZECH REPUBLIC: SADA: A FREEWARE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL INTEGRATING GIS, SAMPLE DESIGN, SPATIAL MODELING, AND RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  15. Evaluation of three physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling tools for emergency risk assessment after acute dichloromethane exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boerleider, R. Z.; Olie, J. D N; van Eijkeren, J. C H; Bos, P. M J; Hof, B. G H; de Vries, I.; Bessems, J. G M; Meulenbelt, J.; Hunault, C. C.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models may be useful in emergency risk assessment, after acute exposure to chemicals, such as dichloromethane (DCM). We evaluated the applicability of three PBPK models for human risk assessment following a single exposure to DCM: one model

  16. The Half RR Rule: A Poor Rule of Thumb and Not a Risk Assessment Tool for QT Interval Prolongation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berling, Ingrid; Isbister, Geoffrey K

    2015-10-01

    Measuring the QT interval on an electrocardiogram (ECG) is integral to risk assessment of Torsade de Pointes (TdP). This study aimed to investigate the accuracy of the 1/2 RR rule as a risk assessment tool for drug-induced TdP, comparing it to the QT nomogram, Bazett's corrected QT (QTcB), and Fridericia's corrected QT (QTcF). The authors calculated sensitivity and specificity of the 1/2 RR rule using a published data set of 129 cases of drug-induced TdP and 316 controls (noncardiotoxic overdoses), compared to the QT nomogram, QTcB > 500 msec and QTcF > 500 msec. To further determine the value of the 1/2 RR rule, its observed positive, and negative agreement were calculated when compared to the QT nomogram for determining an abnormal QT in eight samples of different drugs in overdose. The sensitivity and specificity of the 1/2 RR rule were 88% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 80% to 93%) and 53% (95% CI = 47% to 58%), respectively, compared to the QT nomogram (sensitivity = 97%, 95% CI = 92% to 99%; specificity = 99%, 95% CI = 97% to 100%). It was also less sensitive than QTcB > 500 msec and had a lower specificity than QTcB > 500 msec and QTcF > 500 msec. In drug overdose patients, the 1/2 RR rule had poor observed agreement averaging 41%, which was mainly due to poor positive agreement, except for amisulpride where there was good agreement. The 1/2 RR rule was not as sensitive as the QT nomogram or QTcB > 500 msec for drug-induced TdP. It had poor positive agreement in almost all overdose patients, resulting in over half of patients receiving unnecessary cardiac monitoring and repeat ECGs. © 2015 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

  17. 77 FR 33227 - Assessment Questionnaire-IP Sector Specific Agency Risk Self Assessment Tool (IP-SSARSAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-05

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY [Docket No. DHS-2011-0069] Assessment Questionnaire--IP Sector... comments concerning new Information Collection Request--Assessment Questionnaire--IP Sector Specific Agency... http://www.regulations.gov , including any personal information provided. OMB is particularly...

  18. Criticism on Environmental Assessment Tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abdalla, G.; Maas, G.J.; Huyghe, J.; Oostra, M.; Saji Baby, xx; Bogdan Zygmunt, xx

    2011-01-01

    Using environmental assessment tools to assess the sustainability of buildings, homes and mixed- use area is increasing. Environmental tools assign scores to projects using some sustainability (sub) aspects according to design and realization documents and evidences. Six European sustainable urban

  19. Evaluation of the validity of osteoporosis and fracture risk assessment tools (IOF One Minute Test, SCORE, and FRAX) in postmenopausal Palestinian women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharroubi, Akram; Saba, Elias; Ghannam, Ibrahim; Darwish, Hisham

    2017-12-01

    The need for simple self-assessment tools is necessary to predict women at high risk for developing osteoporosis. In this study, tools like the IOF One Minute Test, Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX), and Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation (SCORE) were found to be valid for Palestinian women. The threshold for predicting women at risk for each tool was estimated. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the validity of the updated IOF (International Osteoporosis Foundation) One Minute Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Test, FRAX, SCORE as well as age alone to detect the risk of developing osteoporosis in postmenopausal Palestinian women. Three hundred eighty-two women 45 years and older were recruited including 131 women with osteoporosis and 251 controls following bone mineral density (BMD) measurement, 287 completed questionnaires of the different risk assessment tools. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were evaluated for each tool using bone BMD as the gold standard for osteoporosis. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was the highest for FRAX calculated with BMD for predicting hip fractures (0.897) followed by FRAX for major fractures (0.826) with cut-off values ˃1.5 and ˃7.8%, respectively. The IOF One Minute Test AUC (0.629) was the lowest compared to other tested tools but with sufficient accuracy for predicting the risk of developing osteoporosis with a cut-off value ˃4 total yes questions out of 18. SCORE test and age alone were also as good predictors of risk for developing osteoporosis. According to the ROC curve for age, women ≥64 years had a higher risk of developing osteoporosis. Higher percentage of women with low BMD (T-score ≤-1.5) or osteoporosis (T-score ≤-2.5) was found among women who were not exposed to the sun, who had menopause before the age of 45 years, or had lower body mass index (BMI) compared to controls. Women who often fall had lower BMI and approximately 27% of the recruited postmenopausal

  20. ROBINS-I: a tool for assessing risk of bias in non-randomised studies of interventions

    OpenAIRE

    Sterne, Jonathan AC; Hern?n, Miguel A; Reeves, Barnaby C; Savovi?, Jelena; Berkman, Nancy D; Viswanathan, Meera; Henry, David; Altman, Douglas G; Ansari, Mohammed T; Boutron, Isabelle; Carpenter, James R; Chan, An-Wen; Churchill, Rachel; Deeks, Jonathan J; Hr?bjartsson, Asbj?rn

    2016-01-01

    Non-randomized studies of the effects of interventions are critical to many areas of health care evaluation, but their results may be biased. It is therefore important to understand and appraise their strengths and weaknesses. We developed ROBINS-I (“Risk Of Bias In Non-randomized Studies - of Interventions”), a new tool for evaluating risk of bias in estimates of the comparative effectiveness (harm or benefit) of interventions from studies that did not use randomization to allocate units (in...

  1. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  2. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  3. Screening for Psychosocial Risk in Dutch Families of a Child With Cancer: Reliability, Validity, and Usability of the Psychosocial Assessment Tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sint Nicolaas, Simone M.; Schepers, Sasja A.; Hoogerbrugge, Peter M.; Caron, Huib N.; Kaspers, Gertjan J. L.; van den Heuvel-Eibrink, Marry M.; Grootenhuis, Martha A.; Verhaak, Chris M.

    2016-01-01

    The Psychosocial Assessment Tool (PAT) was developed to screen for psychosocial risk in families of a child diagnosed with cancer. The current study is the first describing the cross-cultural adaptation, reliability, validity, and usability of the PAT in an European country (Dutch translation).   A

  4. What is needed to implement a computer-assisted health risk assessment tool? An exploratory concept mapping study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Farah

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Emerging eHealth tools could facilitate the delivery of comprehensive care in time-constrained clinical settings. One such tool is interactive computer-assisted health-risk assessments (HRA, which may improve provider-patient communication at the point of care, particularly for psychosocial health concerns, which remain under-detected in clinical encounters. The research team explored the perspectives of healthcare providers representing a variety of disciplines (physicians, nurses, social workers, allied staff regarding the factors required for implementation of an interactive HRA on psychosocial health. Methods The research team employed a semi-qualitative participatory method known as Concept Mapping, which involved three distinct phases. First, in face-to-face and online brainstorming sessions, participants responded to an open-ended central question: “What factors should be in place within your clinical setting to support an effective computer-assisted screening tool for psychosocial risks?” The brainstormed items were consolidated by the research team. Then, in face-to-face and online sorting sessions, participants grouped the items thematically as ‘it made sense to them’. Participants also rated each item on a 5-point scale for its ‘importance’ and ‘action feasibility’ over the ensuing six month period. The sorted and rated data was analyzed using multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analyses which produced visual maps. In the third and final phase, the face-to-face Interpretation sessions, the concept maps were discussed and illuminated by participants collectively. Results Overall, 54 providers participated (emergency care 48%; primary care 52%. Participants brainstormed 196 items thought to be necessary for the implementation of an interactive HRA emphasizing psychosocial health. These were consolidated by the research team into 85 items. After sorting and rating, cluster analysis

  5. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  6. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  7. Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): An Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a potential off-nominal atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. The software and methodology have been validated against actual flights, telemetry data, and validated software, and safety/risk analyses were performed for various programs using SPEAD. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, validation, and application of the SPEAD analysis tool.

  8. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  9. Combining web-based tools for transparent evaluation of data for risk assessment: developmental effects of bisphenol A on the mammary gland as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molander, Linda; Hanberg, Annika; Rudén, Christina; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Beronius, Anna

    2017-03-01

    Different tools have been developed that facilitate systematic and transparent evaluation and handling of toxicity data in the risk assessment process. The present paper sets out to explore the combined use of two web-based tools for study evaluation and identification of reliable data relevant to health risk assessment. For this purpose, a case study was performed using in vivo toxicity studies investigating low-dose effects of bisphenol A on mammary gland development. The reliability of the mammary gland studies was evaluated using the Science in Risk Assessment and Policy (SciRAP) criteria for toxicity studies. The Health Assessment Workspace Collaborative (HAWC) was used for characterizing and visualizing the mammary gland data in terms of type of effects investigated and reported, and the distribution of these effects within the dose interval. It was then investigated whether there was any relationship between study reliability and the type of effects reported and/or their distribution in the dose interval. The combination of the SciRAP and HAWC tools allowed for transparent evaluation and visualization of the studies investigating developmental effects of BPA on the mammary gland. The use of these tools showed that there were no apparent differences in the type of effects and their distribution in the dose interval between the five studies assessed as most reliable and the whole data set. Combining the SciRAP and HAWC tools was found to be a useful approach for evaluating in vivo toxicity studies and identifying reliable and sensitive information relevant to regulatory risk assessment of chemicals. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. How artificial intelligence tools can be used to assess individual patient risk in cardiovascular disease: problems with the current methods

    OpenAIRE

    Grossi Enzo

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Background In recent years a number of algorithms for cardiovascular risk assessment has been proposed to the medical community. These algorithms consider a number of variables and express their results as the percentage risk of developing a major fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event in the following 10 to 20 years Discussion The author has identified three major pitfalls of these algorithms, linked to the limitation of the classical statistical approach in dealing with this kind ...

  11. Exploring probabilistic tools for the development of a platform for Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of hydro-meteorological hazards in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumpano, V.; Hussin, H. Y.; Breinl, K.

    2012-04-01

    Mass-movements and floods are hydro-meteorological hazards that can have catastrophic effects on communities living in mountainous areas prone to these disastrous events. Environmental, climate and socio-economic changes are expected to affect the tempo-spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks in Europe. These changes and their effects on the occurrence of future hazards need to be analyzed and modeled using probabilistic hazard and risk assessment methods in order to assist stakeholders in disaster management strategies and policy making. Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) using probabilistic methods can further calculate damage and losses to multi-hazards and determine the uncertainties related to all the probabilistic components of the hazard and the vulnerability of the elements at risk. Therefore, in order to develop an effective platform that can quantitatively calculate the risk of mass-movements and floods in several European test sites, an extensive inventory and analysis has been carried out of the available tools and software related to the probabilistic risk assessment of single and multi-hazards. The tools have been reviewed based on whether they are open source and freely available, their required input data, the availability and type of hazard and vulnerability modules, transparency of methods used, their validation and calibration techniques, the inclusion of uncertainties and their state of the art. The analysis also specially focused on the applicability of the tools to European study areas. The findings showed that assumptions and simplifications are made when assessing and quantifying the hazards. The interaction between multiple hazards, like cascading effects are not assessed in most tools and some consider the hazard and vulnerability as qualitative components, rather than quantitative ones. This analysis of hazard and risk assessment tools and software will give future developers and experts a better overview of

  12. Development Methodology of a Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment Tool for Digital I and C Systems in Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, K. H.; Lee, C. K.; Song, J. G.; Lee, Y. J.; Kim, J. Y.; Lee, J. W.; Lee, D. Y.

    2011-01-01

    With the use of digital computers and communication networks the hot issues on cyber security were raised about 10 years ago. The scope of cyber security application has now been extended from the safety Instrumentation and Control (I and C) system to safety important systems, plant security system, and emergency preparedness system. Therefore, cyber security should be assessed and managed systematically throughout the development life cycle of I and C systems in order for their digital assets to be protected from cyber attacks. Fig. 1 shows the concept of a cyber security risk management of digital I and C systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs). A lot of cyber security risk assessment methods, techniques, and supported tools have been developed for Information Technology (IT) systems, but they have not been utilized widely for cyber security risk assessments of the digital I and C systems in NPPs. The main reason is a difference in goals between IT systems and nuclear I and C systems. Confidentiality is important in IT systems, but availability and integrity are important in nuclear I and C systems. Last year, it was started to develop a software tool to be specialized for the development process of nuclear I and C systems. This paper presents a development methodology of the Cyber Security Risk analysis and Assessment Tool (CSRAT) for the digital I and C systems in NPP

  13. Development Methodology of a Cyber Security Risk Analysis and Assessment Tool for Digital I and C Systems in Nuclear Power Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cha, K. H.; Lee, C. K.; Song, J. G.; Lee, Y. J.; Kim, J. Y.; Lee, J. W.; Lee, D. Y. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-05-15

    With the use of digital computers and communication networks the hot issues on cyber security were raised about 10 years ago. The scope of cyber security application has now been extended from the safety Instrumentation and Control (I and C) system to safety important systems, plant security system, and emergency preparedness system. Therefore, cyber security should be assessed and managed systematically throughout the development life cycle of I and C systems in order for their digital assets to be protected from cyber attacks. Fig. 1 shows the concept of a cyber security risk management of digital I and C systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs). A lot of cyber security risk assessment methods, techniques, and supported tools have been developed for Information Technology (IT) systems, but they have not been utilized widely for cyber security risk assessments of the digital I and C systems in NPPs. The main reason is a difference in goals between IT systems and nuclear I and C systems. Confidentiality is important in IT systems, but availability and integrity are important in nuclear I and C systems. Last year, it was started to develop a software tool to be specialized for the development process of nuclear I and C systems. This paper presents a development methodology of the Cyber Security Risk analysis and Assessment Tool (CSRAT) for the digital I and C systems in NPP

  14. Can paramedics use FRAX (the WHO Fracture Risk Assessment Tool) to help GPs improve future fracture risk in patients who fall? Protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Shane; Bradley, Rachel; Simmonds, Bethany; Salisbury, Chris; Benger, Jonathan; Marques, Elsa; Greenwood, Rosemary; Shepstone, Lee; Robinson, Maria; Appleby-Fleming, John; Gooberman-Hill, Rachael

    2014-09-03

    Currently identification, and therefore, management of patients at risk of osteoporotic fracture in the UK is suboptimal. As the majority of patients who fracture have fallen, it follows that people who fall can usefully be targeted in any programme that aims to reduce osteoporotic fracture. Targeting vulnerable patients who are likely to benefit from intervention may help shift the management of fracture prevention into primary care, away from emergency departments. Paramedics who attend to patients who have fallen may be well placed to assess future fracture risk, using the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) and communicate that information directly to general practitioners (GPs). This feasibility study takes the form of a pragmatic, randomised controlled trial aimed at exploring and refining issues of study design, recruitment, retention, sample size and acceptability preceding a large-scale study with fracture as the end point. Patients (aged >50) who fall, call an ambulance, are attended by a study paramedic and give verbal consent will be asked FRAX and fall questions. Patients who subsequently formally consent to participation will be randomised to control (usual care) or intervention groups. Intervention will constitute transmission of calculated future fracture risk to the patients' GP with suitable, evidence-based recommendations for investigation or treatment. 3 months after the index fall, data (proportion of patients in each group undergoing investigation or starting new treatment, quality of life and health economic) will be collected and analysed using descriptive statistics. A nested qualitative study will explore issues of acceptability and study design with patients, paramedics and GPs. This protocol was approved by NRES Committee South Central Oxford C in October 2012. Research Ethics Committee ref.12/SC/0604. The study findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations and local public events. A publication

  15. Environmental Tools and Radiological Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation details two tools (SADA and FRAMES) available for use in environmental assessments of chemicals that can also be used for radiological assessments of the environment. Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporate...

  16. Proposal on How To Conduct a Biopharmaceutical Process Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) as a Risk Assessment Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Hartmut F; Hentschel, Norbert

    2011-01-01

    With the publication of the quality guideline ICH Q9 "Quality Risk Management" by the International Conference on Harmonization, risk management has already become a standard requirement during the life cycle of a pharmaceutical product. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a powerful risk analysis tool that has been used for decades in mechanical and electrical industries. However, the adaptation of the FMEA methodology to biopharmaceutical processes brings about some difficulties. The proposal presented here is intended to serve as a brief but nevertheless comprehensive and detailed guideline on how to conduct a biopharmaceutical process FMEA. It includes a detailed 1-to-10-scale FMEA rating table for occurrence, severity, and detectability of failures that has been especially designed for typical biopharmaceutical processes. The application for such a biopharmaceutical process FMEA is widespread. It can be useful whenever a biopharmaceutical manufacturing process is developed or scaled-up, or when it is transferred to a different manufacturing site. It may also be conducted during substantial optimization of an existing process or the development of a second-generation process. According to their resulting risk ratings, process parameters can be ranked for importance and important variables for process development, characterization, or validation can be identified. Health authorities around the world ask pharmaceutical companies to manage risk during development and manufacturing of pharmaceuticals. The so-called failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is an established risk analysis tool that has been used for decades in mechanical and electrical industries. However, the adaptation of the FMEA methodology to pharmaceutical processes that use modern biotechnology (biopharmaceutical processes) brings about some difficulties, because those biopharmaceutical processes differ from processes in mechanical and electrical industries. The proposal presented here

  17. Environmental risk assessment using the Persian version of the Home Falls And Screening Tool (HOME FAST in Iranian elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahareh Maghfouri

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: One of the common problems among older people is falling. Falling inside the houses and streets makes up a large incidence between Iranian elderly, then the effort to identify environmental factors at home and home modification can reduce falls and injury in the elderly. The aim of this study is identifying elderly at risk of fall with using screening tool (HOME FAST and define reliability of this tool.Material and Methods: As a reliability, through the health housing of the town councils in five geographical regions of Tehran, 60 old person were selected. Participants aged 60 to 65 years and the HOME FAST tool was used in the two stages (inter rater and test-retest.Results: Test-retest reliability in the study showed that agreement between the items is over than 0.8, which shows very good reliability. The results showed that the relative of the each item in the Agreement between the domain is 1 - 0.65, which shows moderate to high reliability. And the results in this study showed that agreement between the items in Inter rater reliability is over than 0.8, which shows the level of reliability is very good. Also it showed that the relative of the each item in the agreement between the domain is 1 - 0.01, which shows poor to high reliability.Conclusion: This study shows that the reliability of the HOME FAST is high. The findings of these comments have been expected that the test objectives were appropriate to prevent falls and the tools showed acceptable reliability, then this test can be used as a tool for to professionals.

  18. Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool for the identification of hotspots along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armaroli, Clara; Duo, Enrico; Ciavola, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    The Emilia-Romagna coastline is located in northern Italy, facing the Adriatic sea. The area is especially exposed to the flooding hazard because of its low lying nature, high urbanisation and the large exploitation of beach resources for tourism. The identification of hotspots where marine flooding can cause significant damages is, therefore, a key issue. The methodology implemented to identify hotspots is based on the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool that was developed in the RISC-KIT project (www.risckit.eu). The tool combines the hazard component with different exposure indicators and is applied along predefined coastal sectors of almost 1 Km alongshore length. The coastline was divided into 106 sectors in which each component was analysed. The hazard part was evaluated through the computation of maximum water levels, obtained as the sum of wave set-up, storm surge and tide, calculated along representative beach profiles, one per sector, and for two return periods (10 and 100 years). The data for the computation of the maximum water level were extracted from the literature. The landward extension of flood-prone areas in each sector was the extension of the flood maps produced by the regional authorities for the EU Flood Directive and for the same return periods. The exposure indicators were evaluated taking into account the location and type of different assets in each sector and in flood-prone areas. Specifically, the assets that were taken into account are: the transport network, the utilities (water, gas and electricity) networks, the land use typologies, the social vulnerability status of the population and the business sector. Each component was then ranked from 1 to 5, considering a scale based on their computed value (hazard), importance and location (exposure indicators). A final coastal index (CI) was computed as the root mean square of the geometrical mean of the exposure indicators multiplied by the hazard indicator. Land use typologies were

  19. Trabecular bone score as an assessment tool to identify the risk of osteoporosis in axial spondyloarthritis: a case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Kwi Young; Goo, Hye Yeon; Park, Sung-Hwan; Hong, Yeon Sik

    2018-03-01

    To compare the trabecular bone score (TBS) between patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) and matched normal controls and identify risk factors associated with a low TBS. TBS and BMD were assessed in the two groups (axSpA and control) using DXA. Osteoporosis risk factors and inflammatory markers were also assessed. Disease activity and radiographic progression in the sacroiliac joint and spine were evaluated in the axSpA group. Multivariate linear regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors associated with TBS. In the axSpA group, 248 subjects were enrolled; an equal number of age- and sex-matched subjects comprised the control group. The mean TBS was 1.43 (0.08) and 1.38 (0.12) in the control and axSpA groups, respectively (P tool to identify the risk of osteoporosis in patients with axSpA.

  20. Effectiveness of FISK, an invasiveness screening tool for non-native freshwater fishes, to perform risk identification assessments in the Iberian Peninsula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, David; Ribeiro, Filipe; Leunda, Pedro M; Vilizzi, Lorenzo; Copp, Gordon H

    2013-08-01

    Risk assessments are crucial for identifying and mitigating impacts from biological invasions. The Fish Invasiveness Scoring Kit (FISK) is a risk identification (screening) tool for freshwater fishes consisting of two subject areas: biogeography/history and biology/ecology. According to the outcomes, species can be classified under particular risk categories. The aim of this study was to apply FISK to the Iberian Peninsula, a Mediterranean climate region highly important for freshwater fish conservation due to a high level of endemism. In total, 89 fish species were assessed by three independent assessors. Results from receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that FISK can discriminate reliably between noninvasive and invasive fishes for Iberia, with a threshold of 20.25, similar to those obtained in several regions around the world. Based on mean scores, no species was categorized as "low risk," 50 species as "medium risk," 17 as "moderately high risk," 11 as "high risk," and 11 as "very high risk." The highest scoring species was goldfish Carassius auratus. Mean certainty in response was above the category "mostly certain," ranging from tinfoil barb Barbonymus schwanenfeldii with the lowest certainty to eastern mosquitofish Gambusia holbrooki with the highest level. Pair-wise comparison showed significant differences between one assessor and the other two on mean certainty, with these two assessors showing a high coincidence rate for the species categorization. Overall, the results suggest that FISK is a useful and viable tool for assessing risks posed by non-native fish in the Iberian Peninsula and contributes to a "watch list" in this region. © 2013 Crown copyright This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

  1. Exposure Assessment Tools by Chemical Classes - Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA ExpoBox is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases

  2. Screening for malnutrition among nursing home residents - a comparative analysis of the mini nutritional assessment, the nutritional risk screening, and the malnutrition universal screening tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diekmann, R; Winning, K; Uter, W; Kaiser, M J; Sieber, C C; Volkert, D; Bauer, J M

    2013-04-01

    The European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism (ESPEN) has recommended the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA®), the Nutritional Risk Screening 2002 (NRS), and the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST) for nutritional screening in various settings and age groups. While in recent years all three tools have been applied to nursing home residents, there is still no consensus on the most appropriate screening tool in this specific setting. The present study aims at comparing the MNA, the NRS, and the MUST with regard to applicability, categorization of nutritional status, and predictive value in the nursing home setting. MNA, NRS, and MUST were performed on 200 residents from two municipal nursing homes in Nuremberg, Germany. Follow-up data on infection, hospitalization, and mortality were collected after six and again after twelve months. Among 200 residents (mean age 85.5 ± 7.8 years) the MNA could be completed in 188 (94.0%) and the NRS and MUST in 198 (99.0%) residents. The prevalence of 'malnutrition' according to the MNA was 15.4%. The prevalence of 'risk of malnutrition' (NRS) and 'high risk of malnutrition' (MUST), respectively, was 8.6% for both tools. The individual categorization of nutritional status showed poor agreement between NRS and MUST on the one hand and MNA on the other. For all tools a significant association between nutritional status and mortality was demonstrated during follow-up as classification in 'malnourished', respectively 'high risk of malnutrition' or 'nutritional risk', was significantly associated with increased hazard ratios. However, the MNA showed the best predictive value for survival among well-nourished residents. The evaluation of nutritional status in nursing home residents by MNA, NRS, and MUST shows significant differences. This observation may be of clinical relevance as nutritional intervention is usually based on screening results. As the items of the MNA reflect particularities of the nursing home

  3. Risk indicators as a tool for risk control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oien, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents a general methodology for the establishment of risk indicators that can be used as a tool for risk control during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The risk indicators established are based on the platform specific quantitative risk analysis (QRA). The general methodology is evaluated against comparable approaches both in offshore and nuclear industry. There are two distinct features of this methodology. The first is that it is truly risk-based with the intention of covering the total risk picture. The second is that the identification of the risk factors contributing most to the total risk is based on realistic changes of each factor assessed by the platform personnel, not a theoretically assumed change. The set of risk indicators for one specific installation is presented along with test results

  4. Habitat Modeling and Preferences of Marine Mammals as Function of Oceanographic Characteristics: Development of Predictive Tools for Assessing the Risks and the Impacts Due to Sound Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-30

    evaluate WEC projects in the perspective of the environmental cost-benefit analysis. Proceedings of the ISOPE 2011, Maui, Hawaii, USA 19-24 June, 2011...Function of Oceanographic Characteristics: Development of Predictive Tools for Assessing the Risks and the Impacts Due to Sound Emissions Dr...detections) and the available environmental predictors; - Creating the knowledge-based background about potential mitigation measures appropriate for

  5. Development, Validation and Deployment of a Real Time 30 Day Hospital Readmission Risk Assessment Tool in the Maine Healthcare Information Exchange.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Shiying; Wang, Yue; Jin, Bo; Shin, Andrew Young; Zhu, Chunqing; Huang, Min; Zheng, Le; Luo, Jin; Hu, Zhongkai; Fu, Changlin; Dai, Dorothy; Wang, Yicheng; Culver, Devore S; Alfreds, Shaun T; Rogow, Todd; Stearns, Frank; Sylvester, Karl G; Widen, Eric; Ling, Xuefeng B

    2015-01-01

    Identifying patients at risk of a 30-day readmission can help providers design interventions, and provide targeted care to improve clinical effectiveness. This study developed a risk model to predict a 30-day inpatient hospital readmission for patients in Maine, across all payers, all diseases and all demographic groups. Our objective was to develop a model to determine the risk for inpatient hospital readmission within 30 days post discharge. All patients within the Maine Health Information Exchange (HIE) system were included. The model was retrospectively developed on inpatient encounters between January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012 from 24 randomly chosen hospitals, and then prospectively validated on inpatient encounters from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 using all HIE patients. A risk assessment tool partitioned the entire HIE population into subgroups that corresponded to probability of hospital readmission as determined by a corresponding positive predictive value (PPV). An overall model c-statistic of 0.72 was achieved. The total 30-day readmission rates in low (score of 0-30), intermediate (score of 30-70) and high (score of 70-100) risk groupings were 8.67%, 24.10% and 74.10%, respectively. A time to event analysis revealed the higher risk groups readmitted to a hospital earlier than the lower risk groups. Six high-risk patient subgroup patterns were revealed through unsupervised clustering. Our model was successfully integrated into the statewide HIE to identify patient readmission risk upon admission and daily during hospitalization or for 30 days subsequently, providing daily risk score updates. The risk model was validated as an effective tool for predicting 30-day readmissions for patients across all payer, disease and demographic groups within the Maine HIE. Exposing the key clinical, demographic and utilization profiles driving each patient's risk of readmission score may be useful to providers in developing individualized post discharge

  6. Correlation of Estradiol Serum Levels with Classification of Osteoporosis Risk OSTA (Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tools for Asian in Menopause Women

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eva Maya Puspita

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: In postmenopausal women, decreasing estrogen levels is a marker of ovarian dysfunction. Hypoestrogenic state has known increasing the risk of osteoporosis. Objective: To determine the correlation between estradiol serum levels with classification of osteoporosis risk OSTA (Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tools for Asian in menopausal women. Methods: This study was case series study which examined estradiol serum in menopausal women by ELISA and assess the osteoporosis risk using osteoporosis risk classification OSTA. Total 47 samples was collected at Dr. H.Adam malik, dr. Pirngadi, and RSU Networking in Medan. This research was conducted from May to December 2016. Data were statistically analyzed, and presented with Spearman test. Results: In this study, we found the mean levels of estradiol in menopausal women was 18.62 ± 16.85 ng / ml with OSTA osteoporosis risk score of 2.09 ± 2.45. There was a significant positive correlation between estradiol and risk of osteoporosis OSTA with correlation coefficient r = 0.825 and p <0.05. Conclusion: There is a strong positive correlation between serum levels of estradiol with OSTA osteoporosis risk assessment in menopausal women.

  7. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  8. A GIS-based generic real-time risk assessment framework and decision tools for chemical spills in the river basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng; Lung, Wu-seng; Guo, Liang; Li, Mei

    2012-08-15

    This paper presents a generic framework and decision tools of real-time risk assessment on Emergency Environmental Decision Support System for response to chemical spills in river basin. The generic "4-step-3-model" framework is able to delineate the warning area and the impact on vulnerable receptors considering four types of hazards referring to functional area, societal impact, and human health and ecology system. Decision tools including the stand-alone system and software components were implemented on GIS platform. A detailed case study on the Songhua River nitrobenzene spill illustrated the goodness of the framework and tool Spill first responders and decision makers of catchment management will benefit from the rich, visual and dynamic hazard information output from the software. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Combined Hydrologic (AGWA-KINEROS2) and Hydraulic (HEC2) Modeling for Post-Fire Runoff and Inundation Risk Assessment through a Set of Python Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, J. E.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, D. P.; Burns, I. S.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfires in the Western United States can alter landscapes by removing vegetation and changing soil properties. These altered landscapes produce more runoff than pre-fire landscapes which can lead to post-fire flooding that can damage infrastructure and impair natural resources. Resources, structures, historical artifacts and others that could be impacted by increased runoff are considered values at risk. .The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) allows users to quickly set up and execute the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion model (KINEROS2 or K2) in the ESRI ArcMap environment. The AGWA-K2 workflow leverages the visualization capabilities of GIS to facilitate evaluation of rapid watershed assessments for post-fire planning efforts. High relative change in peak discharge, as simulated by K2, provides a visual and numeric indicator to investigate those channels in the watershed that should be evaluated for more detailed analysis, especially if values at risk are within or near that channel. Modeling inundation extent along a channel would provide more specific guidance about risk along a channel. HEC-2 and HEC-RAS can be used for hydraulic modeling efforts at the reach and river system scale. These models have been used to address flood boundaries and, accordingly, flood risk. However, data collection and organization for hydraulic models can be time consuming and therefore a combined hydrologic-hydraulic modeling approach is not often employed for rapid assessments. A simplified approach could streamline this process and provide managers with a simple workflow and tool to perform a quick risk assessment for a single reach. By focusing on a single reach highlighted by large relative change in peak discharge, data collection efforts can be minimized and the hydraulic computations can be performed to supplement risk analysis. The incorporation of hydraulic analysis through a suite of Python tools (as outlined by HEC-2) with AGWA-K2 will allow more rapid

  10. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment as a tool to obtain useful information for risk managers - specific application to Listeria monocytogenes and ready-to-eat meat products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mataragas, M.; Zwietering, M.H.; Skandamis, P.N.; Drosinos, E.H.

    2010-01-01

    The presence of Listeria monocytogenes in a sliced cooked, cured ham-like meat product was quantitatively assessed. Sliced cooked, cured meat products are considered as high risk products. These ready-to-eat, RTE, products (no special preparation, e.g. thermal treatment, before eating is required),

  11. Initial clinical validation of Health Heritage, a patient-facing tool for personal and family history collection and cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumgart, Leigh A; Postula, Kristen J Vogel; Knaus, William A

    2016-04-01

    Personal and family health histories remain important independent risk factors for cancer; however they are currently not being well collected or used effectively. Health Heritage was designed to address this need. The purpose of this study was to validate the ability of Health Heritage to identify patients appropriate for further genetic evaluation and to accurately stratify cancer risk. A retrospective chart review was conducted on 100 random patients seen at an adult genetics clinic presenting with concern for an inherited predisposition to cancer. Relevant personal and family history obtained from the patients' medical records was entered into Health Heritage. Recommendations by Health Heritage were compared to national guidelines of eligibility for genetic evaluation. Agreement between Health Heritage referral for genetic evaluation and guideline eligibility for genetic evaluation was 97% (sensitivity 98% and specificity 88%). Risk stratification for cancer was also compared between Health Heritage and those documented by a geneticist. For patients at increased risk for breast, ovarian, or colorectal cancer as determined by the geneticist, risk stratification by Health Heritage agreed 90, 93, and 75%, respectively. Discordances in risk stratification were attributed to both complex situations better handled by the geneticist and Health Heritage's adherence to incorporating all information into its algorithms. Health Heritage is a clinically valid tool to identify patients appropriate for further genetic evaluation and to encourage them to confirm the assessment and management recommendations with cancer genetic experts. Health Heritage also provides an estimate of cancer risk that is complementary to a genetics team.

  12. Detecting acute distress and risk of future psychological morbidity in critically ill patients: validation of the intensive care psychological assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Dorothy M; Hankins, Matthew; Smyth, Deborah A; Rhone, Elijah E; Mythen, Michael G; Howell, David C J; Weinman, John A

    2014-09-24

    The psychological impact of critical illness on a patient can be severe, and frequently results in acute distress as well as psychological morbidity after leaving hospital. A UK guideline states that patients should be assessed in critical care units, both for acute distress and risk of future psychological morbidity; but no suitable method for carrying out this assessment exists. The Intensive care psychological assessment tool (IPAT) was developed as a simple, quick screening tool to be used routinely to detect acute distress, and the risk of future psychological morbidity, in critical care units. A validation study of IPAT was conducted in the critical care unit of a London hospital. Once un-sedated, orientated and alert, critical care patients were assessed with the IPAT and validated tools for distress, to determine the IPAT's concurrent validity. Fifty six patients took IPAT again to establish test-retest reliability. Finally, patients completed posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and anxiety questionnaires at three months, to determine predictive validity of the IPAT. One hundred and sixty six patients completed the IPAT, and 106 completed follow-up questionnaires at 3 months. Scale analysis showed IPAT was a reliable 10-item measure of critical care-related psychological distress. Test-retest reliability was good (r =0.8). There was good concurrent validity with measures of anxiety and depression (r =0.7, P psychological morbidity was good (r =0.4, P psychological morbidity (AUC =0.7). The IPAT was found to have good reliability and validity. Sensitivity and specificity analysis suggest the IPAT could provide a way of allowing staff to assess psychological distress among critical care patients after further replication and validation. Further work is also needed to determine its utility in predicting future psychological morbidity.

  13. Risk factor scenario in an industrial set-up: Need for an effective screening tool to assess the high-risk group

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iyer Uma

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Industrial and technological revolution has resulted in nutrition transition. This calls for analyzing the risk factor scenario in the industrial population. Objective: The objective was to map the prevalence and assess the risk factors of industrial employees. Materials and Methods: The employees of a large petrochemical industry were enrolled (N=269 for the study. Risk factors were elicited through a structured questionnaire. Parameters monitored were fasting blood sugar and lipid profile. Relative risk was calculated to find out significant predictor variables. Results: The employees had high prevalence of overweight (27%, obesity (22%, central obesity (48.7%, prehypertension (43.2%, hypertension (36.6%, and dyslipidemia (41.4%. They had erroneous dietary habits such as low intake of fruits and vegetables and high fat intake. Most of the employees had low physical activity levels. The prevalence of smoking (13.5%, tobacco (28.2%, and alcohol use (22.2% were also high with 15.1% having multiple habits. One-fifth of the employees had metabolic syndrome (MS. Seven predictor variables, namely, family history, BMI, WHR, blood pressure, physical inactivity, TG, and TG/H were identified and used to develop the risk score card to identify people at high risk of CVD and DM. Conclusion: Multiple risk factor scenario among the industrial population studied calls for effective intervention strategies and policy changes to combat the burden of non-communicable diseases. The risk score card can be used to screen the high-risk group in the industrial population.

  14. Development of the remedial action priority system: An improved risk assessment tool for prioritizing hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, G.; Strenge, D.L.; Steelman, B.L.; Hawley, K.A.

    1985-01-01

    The Remedial Action Priority System (RAPS) represents a methodology that prioritizes inactive hazardous and radioactive mixed-waste disposal sites in a scientific and objective manner based on limited site information. This methodology is intended to bridge the technology gap that exists between the initial site evaluation using the Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and the time-consuming process of actual field site characterization, assessment and remediation efforts. The HRS was designed as an initial screening tool to discriminate between hazardous waste sites that do not and those that are likely to power significant problems to human health, safety and/or the environment. The HRS is used by the U.S. EPA to identify sites for nomination to the National Priorities List (NPL). Because the HRS is not designed to evaluate sites containing radionuclides, a modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS) addressing both hazardous and radioactive mixed wastes was developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Neither the HRS nor the mHRS was designed to prioritize sites that are nominated to the NPL according to their potential risks. To provide DOE with a better management tool for prioritizing funding and human resource allocations for further investigations and possible remediations at its inactive waste sites, PNL is developing the risk assessment methodology called RAPS. Use of RAPS will help DOE ensure that those sites posing the highest potential risk are addressed first

  15. Environmental impact assessment screening tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-05-01

    An environmental assessment and impact planning software, SCREENER, was tested at a pilot project at the Cameco site (Port Hope). SCREENER was used to screen the impacts of a new construction project in accordance with the process and reporting requirements laid out in the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The software test concentrated on the activities that are directly involved with the structure construction and site preparation activities. In addition, a two and one half day training course was given to three AECB staff using the test case as a hands on example. The conclusion of this project is that an automated tool such as SCREENER (or Calyx, the new generation of environmental assessment tools from ESSA Software Ltd.), will help the AECB to standardize the approach to environmental assessment, assist in project planning, and save resources in the screening process. The new approach could allow to allocate AECB limited resources to the detailed assessments required for maximum impact activities. 2 figs. 7 refs.

  16. Environmental impact assessment screening tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    An environmental assessment and impact planning software, SCREENER, was tested at a pilot project at the Cameco site (Port Hope). SCREENER was used to screen the impacts of a new construction project in accordance with the process and reporting requirements laid out in the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act. The software test concentrated on the activities that are directly involved with the structure construction and site preparation activities. In addition, a two and one half day training course was given to three AECB staff using the test case as a hands on example. The conclusion of this project is that an automated tool such as SCREENER (or Calyx, the new generation of environmental assessment tools from ESSA Software Ltd.), will help the AECB to standardize the approach to environmental assessment, assist in project planning, and save resources in the screening process. The new approach could allow to allocate AECB limited resources to the detailed assessments required for maximum impact activities

  17. Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART in earthquake risk assessment: a case study of Delhi region, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishant Sinha

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This article is aimed at earthquake hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis and Ranking Tool (SMART, which is based on Saaty's multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA technique. The three specific study sites of Delhi were chosen for research as it corresponds to a typical patch of the urban environs, completely engrossed with residential, commercial and industrial units. The earthquake hazard affecting components are established in the form of geographic information system data-set layers including seismic zone, peak ground acceleration (PGA, soil characteristics, liquefaction potential, geological characteristics, land use, proximity to fault and epicentre. The physical vulnerability layers comprising building information, namely number of stories, year-built range, area, occupancy and construction type, derived from remote sensing imagery, were only considered for the current research. SMART was developed for earthquake risk assessment, and weights were derived both at component and its element level. Based on weighted overlay techniques, the earthquake hazard and vulnerability layers were created from which the risk maps were derived through multiplicative analysis. The developed risk maps may prove useful in decision-making process and formulating risk mitigation measures.

  18. Comparison of Oncotype DX® Recurrence Score® with other risk assessment tools including the Nottingham Prognostic Index in the identification of patients with low-risk invasive breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotter, Maura Bríd; Dakin, Alex; Maguire, Aoife; Walshe, Janice M; Kennedy, M John; Dunne, Barbara; Riain, Ciarán Ó; Quinn, Cecily M

    2017-09-01

    Oncotype DX® is a gene expression assay that quantifies the risk of distant recurrence in patients with hormone receptor positive early breast cancer, publicly funded in Ireland since 2011. The aim of this study was to correlate Oncotype DX® risk groupings with traditional histopathological parameters and the results of other risk assessment tools including Recurrence Score-Pathology-Clinical (RSPC), Adjuvant Risk Index (Adj RI), Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and the Adjuvant! Online 10-year score (AO). Patients were retrospectively identified from the histopathology databases of two Irish hospitals and patient and tumour characteristics collated. Associations between categorical variables were evaluated with Pearson's chi-square test. Correlations were calculated using Spearman's correlation coefficient and concordance using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software, version 22.0.In our 300 patient cohort, Oncotype DX® classified 59.7% (n = 179) as low, 30% (n = 90) as intermediate, and 10.3% (n = 31) as high risk. Overall concordance between the RS and RSPC, Adj RI, NPI, and AO was 67.3% (n = 202), 56.3% (n = 169), 59% (n = 177), and 36.3% (n = 109), respectively. All risk assessment tools classified the majority of patients as low risk apart from the AO 10-year score, with RSPC classifying the highest number of patients as low risk. This study demonstrates that there is good correlation between the RS and scores obtained using alternative risk tools. Concordance with NPI is strong, particularly in the low-risk group. NPI, calculated from traditional clinicopathological characteristics, is a reliable alternative to Oncotype DX® in the identification of low-risk patients who may avoid adjuvant chemotherapy.

  19. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  20. Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT): predictive algorithm for assessing CVD risk in the community setting. A study protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taljaard, Monica; Tuna, Meltem; Bennett, Carol; Perez, Richard; Rosella, Laura; Tu, Jack V; Sanmartin, Claudia; Hennessy, Deirdre; Tanuseputro, Peter; Lebenbaum, Michael; Manuel, Douglas G

    2014-10-23

    Recent publications have called for substantial improvements in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of prediction models. Publication of study protocols, with prespecification of key aspects of the analysis plan, can help to improve transparency, increase quality and protect against increased type I error. Valid population-based risk algorithms are essential for population health planning and policy decision-making. The purpose of this study is to develop, evaluate and apply cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk algorithms for the population setting. The Ontario sample of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2001, 2003, 2005; 77,251 respondents) will be used to assess risk factors focusing on health behaviours (physical activity, diet, smoking and alcohol use). Incident CVD outcomes will be assessed through linkage to administrative healthcare databases (619,886 person-years of follow-up until 31 December 2011). Sociodemographic factors (age, sex, immigrant status, education) and mediating factors such as presence of diabetes and hypertension will be included as predictors. Algorithms will be developed using competing risks survival analysis. The analysis plan adheres to published recommendations for the development of valid prediction models to limit the risk of overfitting and improve the quality of predictions. Key considerations are fully prespecifying the predictor variables; appropriate handling of missing data; use of flexible functions for continuous predictors; and avoiding data-driven variable selection procedures. The 2007 and 2009 surveys (approximately 50,000 respondents) will be used for validation. Calibration will be assessed overall and in predefined subgroups of importance to clinicians and policymakers. This study has been approved by the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. The findings will be disseminated through professional and scientific conferences, and in peer-reviewed journals. The algorithm will be accessible

  1. Suicide Risk Screening Tools and the Youth Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Sharon

    2016-08-01

    The use of suicide risk screening tools is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to suicide risk assessment. Since nurses frequently spend more time with patients than any other healthcare professional, they are in key positions to detect and prevent suicidal behavior in youth. To inform nurses about suicide risk screening tools for the youth population. Suicide risk screening tools are research-based standardized instruments that are used to identify people who may be at risk for suicide. A literature search was performed using the Athabasca University Library Resource, the databases of the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar. Nurses are cautioned to utilize suicide risk screening tools as only part of the suicide risk assessment in youth populations and avoid the danger of relying on tools that may result in a blind application of evidence to the detriment of clinical experience and judgement. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Use of bodily sensations as a risk assessment tool: exploring people with Multiple Sclerosis' views on risks of negative interactions between herbal medicine and conventional drug therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skovgaard, Lasse; Pedersen, Inge Kryger; Verhoef, Marja

    2014-02-18

    Most users of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) combine it with conventional medicine. Recent risk assessment studies have shown risks of negative interactions between CAM and conventional medicine, particularly when combining herbal medicine and conventional drug therapies (CDT). Little is known about the way users consider such risks. The present paper aims to gain knowledge about this issue by exploring views on risks of negative interactions when combining herbal medicine and CDT among people with multiple sclerosis (MS). This paper draws on a qualitative follow-up study on a survey among members of the Danish MS Society. Semi-structured, in-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with a strategic selection from the survey respondents. The study was inspired by a phenomenological approach and emerging themes were extracted from the data through meaning condensation. Four themes characterized the informants' views on risks of negative interactions when combining herbal medicine and CDT: 1) 'naturalness' in herbal medicine; 2) 'bodily sensations' as guidelines; 3) trust in the CAM practitioner; 4) lack of dialogue with medical doctor. Generally, the combination of herbal medicine and CDT was considered by the informants to be safe. In particular, they emphasized the 'non-chemical' nature of herbal medicine and of their own bodily sensations as warrants of safety. A trustful relation to the CAM practitioner furthermore made some of them feel safe in their use of herbal medicine and CDT in combination. The informants' use of bodily sensations as a non-discursive risk assessment may be a relevant element in understanding these issues.

  3. Refinement and cross-validation of nickel bioavailability in PNEC-Pro, a regulatory tool for site-specific risk assessment of metals in surface water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verschoor, Anja J; Vijver, Martina G; Vink, Jos P M

    2017-09-01

    The European Water Framework Directive prescribes that the environmental quality standards for nickel in surface waters should be based on bioavailable concentrations. Biotic ligand models (BLMs) are powerful tools to account for site-specific bioavailability within risk assessments. Several BLMs and simplified tools are available. For nickel, most of them are based on the same toxicity dataset and chemical speciation methodology as laid down in the 2008 European Union Environmental Risk Assessment Report (RAR). Since then, further insights into the toxic effects of nickel on aquatic species have been gained, and new data and methodologies have been generated and implemented using the predicted-no-effect-concentration (PNEC)-pro tool. The aim of the present study is to provide maximum transparency on data revisions and how this affects the derived environmental quality standards. A case study with 7 different ecoregions was used to determine differences in species sensitivity distributions and in hazardous concentrations for 5% of the species (HC5) values between the original Ni-RAR BLMs and the PNEC-pro BLMs. The BLM parameters used were pH dependent, which extended the applicability domain of PNEC-pro up to a pH of 8.7 for surface waters. After inclusion of additional species and adjustment for cross-species extrapolation, the HC5s were well within the prediction range of the RAR. Based on the latest data and scientific insights, transfer functions in the user-friendly PNEC-pro tool have been updated accordingly without compromising the original considerations of the Ni-RAR. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2367-2376. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  4. Employability Skills Assessment Tool Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasul, Mohamad Sattar; Rauf, Rose Amnah Abd; Mansor, Azlin Norhaini; Puvanasvaran, A. P.

    2012-01-01

    Research nationally and internationally found that technical graduates are lacking in employability skills. As employability skills are crucial in outcome-based education, the main goal of this research is to develop an Employability Skill Assessment Tool to help students and lecturers produce competent graduates in employability skills needed by…

  5. Estimating Longitudinal Risks and Benefits From Cardiovascular Preventive Therapies Among Medicare Patients: The Million Hearts Longitudinal ASCVD Risk Assessment Tool: A Special Report From the American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Huffman, Mark D; Karmali, Kunal N; Sanghavi, Darshak M; Wright, Janet S; Pelser, Colleen; Gulati, Martha; Masoudi, Frederick A; Goff, David C

    2017-03-28

    The Million Hearts Initiative has a goal of preventing 1 million heart attacks and strokes-the leading causes of mortality-through several public health and healthcare strategies by 2017. The American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology support the program. The Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Model was developed by Million Hearts and the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services as a strategy to assess a value-based payment approach toward reduction in 10-year predicted risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) by implementing cardiovascular preventive strategies to manage the "ABCS" (aspirin therapy in appropriate patients, blood pressure control, cholesterol management, and smoking cessation). The purpose of this special report is to describe the development and intended use of the Million Hearts Longitudinal ASCVD Risk Assessment Tool. The Million Hearts Tool reinforces and builds on the "2013 ACC/AHA Guideline on the Assessment of Cardiovascular Risk" by allowing clinicians to estimate baseline and updated 10-year ASCVD risk estimates for primary prevention patients adhering to the appropriate ABCS over time, alone or in combination. The tool provides updated risk estimates based on evidence from high-quality systematic reviews and meta-analyses of the ABCS therapies. This novel approach to personalized estimation of benefits from risk-reducing therapies in primary prevention may help target therapies to those in whom they will provide the greatest benefit, and serves as the basis for a Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services program designed to evaluate the Million Hearts Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Model. Copyright © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc., and the American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Pollution potential leaching index as a tool to assess water leaching risk of arsenic in excavated urban soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jining; Kosugi, Tomoya; Riya, Shohei; Hashimoto, Yohey; Hou, Hong; Terada, Akihiko; Hosomi, Masaaki

    2018-01-01

    Leaching of hazardous trace elements from excavated urban soils during construction of cities has received considerable attention in recent years in Japan. A new concept, the pollution potential leaching index (PPLI), was applied to assess the risk of arsenic (As) leaching from excavated soils. Sequential leaching tests (SLT) with two liquid-to-solid (L/S) ratios (10 and 20Lkg -1 ) were conducted to determine the PPLI values, which represent the critical cumulative L/S ratios at which the average As concentrations in the cumulative leachates are reduced to critical values (10 or 5µgL -1 ). Two models (a logarithmic function model and an empirical two-site first-order leaching model) were compared to estimate the PPLI values. The fractionations of As before and after SLT were extracted according to a five-step sequential extraction procedure. Ten alkaline excavated soils were obtained from different construction projects in Japan. Although their total As contents were low (from 6.75 to 79.4mgkg -1 ), the As leaching was not negligible. Different L/S ratios at each step of the SLT had little influence on the cumulative As release or PPLI values. Experimentally determined PPLI values were in agreement with those from model estimations. A five-step SLT with an L/S of 10Lkg -1 at each step, combined with a logarithmic function fitting was suggested for the easy estimation of PPLI. Results of the sequential extraction procedure showed that large portions of more labile As fractions (non-specifically and specifically sorbed fractions) were removed during long-term leaching and so were small, but non-negligible, portions of strongly bound As fractions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Holistic seismic risk assessment of port of Spain: an integrated evaluation and tool in the framework of CAPRA

    OpenAIRE

    Carreño Tibaduiza, Martha Liliana; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Velasquez, Cesar A.; Salgado Galvez, Mario A.

    2014-01-01

    In recent years disaster risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a given period of time. However, in many cases, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way according to each scientific discipline involved in its estimation. In order to evaluate risk according to the above stated definition, a multidisciplinary evaluation is necessary. This evaluation should take into a...

  8. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  9. Assessing Flood Risks and Planning for Resiliency in New Jersey: A Case Study on the Use of Online Flood Mapping and Resilience Planning Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auermuller, L. M.; Gatto, J.; Huch, C.

    2015-12-01

    The highly developed nature of New Jersey's coastline, barrier island and lagoon communities make them particularly vulnerable to storm surge, sea level rise and flooding. The impacts of Hurricane Sandy have enlightened coastal communities to these realities. Recognizing these vulnerabilities, the Jacques Cousteau National Research Reserve (JC NERR), Rutgers Center for Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis (CRSSA), Rutgers Bloustein School and the Barnegat Bay Partnership (BBP) have developed web-based tools to assist NJ's coastal communities in visualizing and planning for future local impacts. NJFloodMapper and NJAdapt are two complementary interactive mapping websites that visualize different current and future flood hazards. These hazard layers can be combined with additional data including critical facilities, evacuation routes, socioeconomic and environmental data. Getting to Resilience is an online self-assessment tool developed to assist communities reduce vulnerability and increase preparedness by linking planning, mitigation, and adaptation. Through this interactive process communities will learn how their preparedness can yield valuable points through voluntary programs like FEMA's Community Rating System and Sustainable Jersey. The assessment process can also increase the community's understanding of where future vulnerabilities should be addressed through hazard mitigation planning. Since Superstorm Sandy, more than thirty communities in New Jersey have been provided technical assistance in assessing their risks and vulnerabilities to coastal hazards, and have begun to understand how to better plan and prepare for short and long-term changes along their shorelines.

  10. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  11. A brief screening tool for assessing psychological trauma in clinical practice: development and validation of the New York PTSD Risk Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boscarino, Joseph A; Kirchner, H Lester; Hoffman, Stuart N; Sartorius, Jennifer; Adams, Richard E; Figley, Charles R

    2011-01-01

    The objective was to develop a brief posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) screening instrument that is useful in clinical practice, similar to the Framingham Risk Score used in cardiovascular medicine. We used data collected in New York City after the World Trade Center disaster (WTCD) and other trauma data to develop a new PTSD prediction tool--the New York PTSD Risk Score. We used diagnostic test methods to examine different clinical domains, including PTSD symptoms, trauma exposures, sleep disturbances, suicidal thoughts, depression symptoms, demographic factors and other measures to assess different PTSD prediction models. Using receiver operating curve (ROC) and bootstrap methods, five prediction domains, including core PTSD symptoms, sleep disturbance, access to care status, depression symptoms and trauma history, and five demographic variables, including gender, age, education, race and ethnicity, were identified. For the best prediction model, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.880 for the Primary Care PTSD Screen alone (specificity=82.2%, sensitivity=93.7%). Adding care status, sleep disturbance, depression and trauma exposure increased the AUC to 0.943 (specificity=85.7%, sensitivity=93.1%), a significant ROC improvement (Pdevelopment and validation samples. The New York PTSD Risk Score is a multifactor prediction tool that includes the Primary Care PTSD Screen, depression symptoms, access to care, sleep disturbance, trauma history and demographic variables and appears to be effective in predicting PTSD among patients seen in healthcare settings. This prediction tool is simple to administer and appears to outperform other screening measures. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. The primary assessment tool at Philips electronics : capturing real options and organizational risk in technology portfolio management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lint, L.J.O.

    2000-01-01

    I develop an extended scoring approach to build a balanced portfolio of new technology projects under uncertainty at early stages of development. My contribution is twofold. First, I show how the tool incorporates the option approach to decision making to create contingent claims on future market

  13. Air radioactivity: to assess risks. Tools answer citizen questions. The Opera-Air network: the journey of a filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Didier, Damien; Gariel, Jean-Christophe; Bruno, Valerie; Debayle, Christophe

    2017-01-01

    Very highly efficient filters containing a porous glass fibre fabric are used in industrial installations to trap radioactive or toxic particles in order to limit their release, notably in accidental situations. Thus this set of articles discusses various issues related to the use of such filters. A first one describes how air radioactivity is continuously monitored by two coexisting networks: Opera-Air and Teleray. It indicates where air radioactivity comes from, and how the origin of a release can be determined, and outlines the importance of modelling tools. Air monitoring about the Gravelines nuclear power plant is briefly presented with a drawing. A second article comments the existence of numerous tools which are used as information channels about the monitoring of air radioactivity: web sites, mobile application, and so on. The last article briefly describes the journey of a filter from its removal on a Monday to a complete and validated analysis which lasts between two and four weeks

  14. A radioecological risk assessment tool for post-accidental situations. Application in the Toulon marine area (South of France)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffa, Celine; Thebault, Herve

    2010-01-01

    To estimate any post-accidental consequences in the environment and to propose adapted management plans, data concerning both radionuclides spatial dispersion and environmental sensitivity to this contamination are necessary. IRSN develops integrated tools to support experts and decision makers in post-accident situation concerning this area. This management tool aims to combine radionuclides dispersion modelling and radioecological sensitivity local maps to outline vulnerable areas front of a known release. An example of application to a maritime environment is given: the naval base of Toulon. Calculation of radionuclides dispersion is based on the existing MARS 3D hydrodynamic model. The radioecological sensitivity of the marine environment is based on the ecosystem intrinsic characteristics and the socio-economical resources. Mapping radionuclides dispersion results and sensitivity of defined zones of the studies area, we show that the Little Bay and the western part of Toulon marine area are the most vulnerable in case of accidental release occuring in the harbour. (orig.)

  15. Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations - A new generation of urban planning tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2017-07-01

    We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.

  16. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  17. 77 FR 28894 - Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-16

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self... maritime vulnerability self- assessment tool. SUMMARY: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announces that the TSA Maritime Self-Assessment Risk Module (TMSARM), developed to support the United States...

  18. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  19. Standardised risk analysis as a communication tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pluess, Ch.; Montanarini, M.; Bernauer, M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: several European countries require a risk analysis for the production, storage or transport a dangerous goods. This requirement imposes considerable administrative effort for some sectors of the industry. In order to minimize the effort of such studies, a generic risk analysis for an industrial sector proved to help. Standardised procedures can consequently be derived for efficient performance of the risk investigations. This procedure was successfully established in Switzerland for natural gas transmission lines and fossil fuel storage plants. The development process of the generic risk analysis involved an intense discussion between industry and authorities about methodology of assessment and the criteria of acceptance. This process finally led to scientific consistent modelling tools for risk analysis and to an improved communication from the industry to the authorities and the public. As a recent example, the Holland-Italy natural gas transmission pipeline is demonstrated, where this method was successfully employed. Although this pipeline traverses densely populated areas in Switzerland, using this established communication method, the risk problems could be solved without delaying the planning process. (authors)

  20. Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as

  1. Development of a Frost Risk Assessment Tool in Agriculture for a Mediterranean ecosystem Utilizing MODIS satellite observations Geomatics and Surface Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louka, Panagiota; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Petropoulos, George; Migiros, George; Tsiros, Ioannis

    2014-05-01

    Frost risk in Mediterranean countries is a critical factor in agricultural planning and management. Nowadays, the rapid technological developments in Earth Observation (EO) technology have improved dramatically our ability to map the spatiotemporal distribution of frost conditions over a given area and evaluate its impacts on the environment and society. In this study, a frost risk model for agricultural crops cultivated in a Mediterranean environment has been developed, based primarily on Earth Observation (EO) data from MODIS sensor and ancillary spatial and point data. The ability of the model to predict frost conditions has been validated for selected days on which frost conditions had been observed for a region in Northwestern Greece according to ground observations obtained by the Agricultural Insurance Organization (ELGA). An extensive evaluation of the frost risk model predictions has been performed herein to evaluate objectively its ability to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of frost risk in the studied region, including comparisons against physiographical factors of the study area. The topographical characteristics that were taken under consideration were latitude, altitude, slope steepness, topographic convergence and the extend of the areas influenced by water bodies (such as lake and sea) existing in the study area. Additional data were also used concerning land use data and vegetation classification (type and density). Our results showed that the model was able to produce reasonably the spatio-temporal distribution of the frost conditions in our study area, following largely explainable patterns in respect to the study site and local weather conditions characteristics. All in all, the methodology implemented herein proved capable in obtaining rapidly and cost-effectively cartography of the frost risk in a Mediterranean environment, making it potentially a very useful tool for agricultural management and planning. The model presented here has

  2. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  3. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  4. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  5. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  6. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  7. The histologic risk model is a useful and inexpensive tool to assess risk of recurrence and death in stage I or II squamous cell carcinoma of tongue and floor of mouth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Namita; Rigby, Matthew H; McNeil, Michael L; Taylor, S Mark; Trites, Jonathan Rb; Hart, Robert D; Bullock, Martin J

    2018-02-02

    Surgery is the mainstay of treatment for low-stage (stage I/II, ie, T1N0/T2N0) squamous cell carcinoma of oral cavity. However, a significant percentage of low-stage squamous cell carcinoma of oral cavity will develop local recurrence and disease-related mortality. In this study, we stratified 64 patients with low-stage of oral tongue and floor of mouth patients into high-, intermediate- and low-risk categories based on existing histologic risk model. The classification of these risk categories was based on presence or absence of perineural invasion and evaluation of tumor-host junction for worst pattern of invasion and lymphocytic host response. We correlated risk category and other variables with recurrence and death. In a univariate model, high-risk category tumors had a significantly higher rate of recurrence and death due to recurrence compared with low/intermediate-risk categories (P=0.000 and P=0.047, respectively). Controlling for margin status and T-stage, high-risk category had a 12.4 odds ratio of later recurrence when compared with low/intermediate-risk categories, with a P-value of 0.001. In conclusion, we found low-stage oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma patients with high-risk category have a significantly higher risk for recurrence when compared with patients in the low- or intermediate-risk category, even when controlling for margin status and T-stage. These patients may be suitable candidates for adjuvant treatment to decrease morbidity and mortality associated with a recurrence. Our results indicate that the histologic risk model is a useful and simple tool to assess risk of recurrence in stage I or II squamous cell carcinoma of oral cavity.Modern Pathology advance online publication, 2 February 2018; doi:10.1038/modpathol.2017.183.

  8. Risk assessment strategies as a tool in the application of the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP) and Food Safety Objective (FSO) by risk managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gkogka, E; Reij, M W; Gorris, L G M; Zwietering, M H

    2013-10-01

    In the course of the last decade, the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), the Food Safety Objective (FSO) and their associated metrics have been proposed by the World Trade Organization and Codex Alimentarius as a means for competent authorities to ultimately translate governmental public health policy regarding food safety into risk-based targets for the food industry. The industry needs to meet these targets through the effective choice of control measures that are part of its operational food safety management system. The aim of this study was to put the practical application of ALOP and FSO to the test in the case of Salmonella in chicken meat in the Netherlands. Two different risk assessment approaches were applied to derive potential ALOP and FSO values, a 'top-down' approach based on epidemiological data and a 'bottom-up' approach based on food supply chain data. To this end, two stochastic models specific to the Dutch situation were built. Comparisons between 23 countries in Europe were also made using the top-down model. The mean estimated current Level Of Protection values were similar for the two approaches applied, with the bottom-up model yielding 87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year (95% CI: 0.03, 904) and the top-down model 71 (95% CI: 9.9, 155). The estimated FSO values on the other hand were considerably different with the mean 'top down' FSO being -4.6 log CFU/g (95% CI: -5.4, -4.1) and the mean 'bottom-up' FSO -6.0 log CFU/g (95% CI: -8.1, -2.9) reflecting major differences in the output distributions of this parameter obtained with the two approaches. Significant differences were observed between current LOP values for different EU countries, although it was not clear whether this was due to actual differences in the factors influencing the risk of salmonellosis or due to the quality of the available data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Hazard quotient profiles used as a risk assessment tool for PFOS and PFOA serum levels in three distinctive European populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ludwicki, Jan K; Góralczyk, Katarzyna; Struciński, Paweł

    2015-01-01

    Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) blood levels are commonly used as biomarkers of human environmental exposure to these compounds. Many biomonitoring studies indicate 100% detection for PFOS and PFOA thus justifying a concern of possible risk for the most exposed...... individuals. This study addresses the predictive value of hazard quotients (HQs) calculated on the basis of serum PFOS and PFOA in male and female populations of reproductive age in Greenland, Poland and Ukraine. Overall, 2026 results of PFOS and PFOA serum concentrations (589 males, 1437 females) were...... and PFOA. Only in the three cases of males in Greenland were there serum PFOS levels showing HQ values exceeding 1, so indicating that such serum levels may be of concern. The mean serum concentration of PFOS was significantly higher in male than in female populations. Despite significant differences...

  10. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  11. Risk assessment tool for incontinence-associated dermatitis in elderly patients combining tissue tolerance and perineal environment predictors: a prospective clinical study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ichikawa-Shigeta Y

    2014-10-01

    .254–235.729, P < 0.001. The ROC curve analysis identified EI ≥46 as the most reliable predictor of IAD (sensitivity: 0.92, specificity: 0.81. These factors were integrated into a new risk assessment tool for the development of IAD in elderly patients with incontinence.Conclusion: This study demonstrates that EI constitutes a more valid predictor than perineal factors to monitor patients in clinical settings and to prevent the development of IAD.Keywords: nursing, risk factor, erythema index, liquid stool, malodorous urine

  12. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  13. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  14. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  15. Development of funding project risk management tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Funding project risk management is a process for identifying, assessing, and prioritizing project funding risks. To plan to : minimize or eliminate the impact of negative events, one must identify what projects have higher risk to respond to potentia...

  16. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  17. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  18. CALDoseX-a software tool for the assessment of organ and tissue absorbed doses, effective dose and cancer risks in diagnostic radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, R; Khoury, H J; Vieira, J W

    2008-01-01

    CALDose X is a software tool that provides the possibility of calculating incident air kerma (INAK) and entrance surface air kerma (ESAK), two important quantities used in x-ray diagnosis, based on the output of the x-ray equipment. Additionally, the software uses conversion coefficients (CCs) to assess the absorbed dose to organs and tissues of the human body, the effective dose as well as the patient's cancer risk for radiographic examinations. The CCs, ratios between organ or tissue absorbed doses and measurable quantities, have been calculated with the FAX06 and the MAX06 phantoms for 34 projections of 10 commonly performed x-ray examinations, for 40 combinations of tube potential and filtration ranging from 50 to 120 kVcp and from 2.0 to 5.0 mm aluminum, respectively, for various field positions, for 29 selected organs and tissues and simultaneously for the measurable quantities, INAK, ESAK and kerma area product (KAP). Based on the x-ray irradiation parameters defined by the user, CALDose X shows images of the phantom together with the position of the x-ray beam. By using true to nature voxel phantoms, CALDose X improves earlier software tools, which were mostly based on mathematical MIRD5-type phantoms, by using a less representative human anatomy.

  19. Risk analysis as a decision tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

    1985-01-01

    From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

  20. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  1. The letter knowledge assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedro, Cassandra; Lousada, Marisa; Pereira, Rita; Hall, Andreia; Jesus, Luis M T

    2017-10-10

    There is a need to develop letter knowledge assessment tools to characterise the letter knowledge in Portuguese pre-schoolers and to compare it with pre-schoolers from other countries, but there are no tools for this purpose in Portugal. The aim of this paper is to describe the development and validation procedures of the Prova de Avaliação de Competências de Pré-Literacia (PACPL), which assesses letter knowledge. This study includes data that has been gathered in two phases: pilot and main study. In the pilot study, an expert panel of six speech and language pathologists analysed the instrument. Children (n = 216) aged 5;0-7;11 participated in the main study that reports data related to the psychometric characteristics of the PACPL. Content validity, internal consistency, reliability and contributing factors to performance were examined statistically. A modified Bland-Altman method revealed good agreement amongst evaluators. The main study showed that the PACPL has a very good internal consistency and high inter-rater (96.2% of agreement and a Cohen's k value of 0.92) and intra-rater (95.6% of agreement and a Cohen's k value of 0.91) agreement. Construct validity of the PCAPL was also assured (Cronbach's α of 0.982). Significant differences were found between age groups with children increasing their letter knowledge with age. In addition, they were better at identifying than at producing both letter names and letter sounds. The PACPL is a valid and reliable instrument to assess letter knowledge in Portuguese children.

  2. Decision support in addiction: The development of an e-health tool to assess and prevent risk of fatal overdose. The ORION Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldacchino, A; Crocamo, C; Humphris, G; Neufeind, J; Frisher, M; Scherbaum, N; Carrà, G

    2016-09-01

    The application of e-health technology to the field of substance use disorders is at a relatively early stage, and methodological quality is still variable. Few have explored the extent of utilization of communication technology in exploring risk perception by patients enrolled in substance abuse services. The Overdose RIsk InfOrmatioN (ORION) project is a European Commission funded programme, aimed to develop and pilot an e-health psycho-educational tool to provide information to drug using individuals about the risks of suffering a drug overdose. In this article, we report on phase 1 (risk estimation), phase 2 (design), and phase 3 (feasibility) of the ORION project. The development of ORION e-health tool underlined the importance of an evidence-based intervention aimed in obtaining reliable evaluation of risk. The ORION tool supported a decision making process aimed at influencing the substance users' self-efficacy and the degree to which the substance users' understand risk factors. Therefore, its innovative power consisted in translating risks combination into a clear estimation for the user who will then appear more likely to be interested in his/her risk perception. Exploratory field testing and validation confirmed the next stage of evaluation, namely, collection of routine patient samples in study clinics. The associations between risk perception of overdose, engagement with the ORION tool and willingness to alter overdose risk factors, in a clinical setting across various EU member states will further confirm the ORION tool's generalisability and effectiveness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Liquidity risk charges as a macroprudential tool

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.; Suarez, J.

    2009-01-01

    Liquidity risk charges were proposed in February 2009 as a new macro-prudential tool to discourage systemic risk creation by banks. A new CEPR Policy Insight refines this proposal in order to clarify challenging issues surrounding the implementation of liquidity risk charges.

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  5. Development of computerized risk management tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kil Yoo Kim; Mee Jung Hwang; Seung Cheol Jang; Sang Hoon Han; Tae Woon Kim

    1997-01-01

    The author describes the kinds of efforts for the development of computerized risk management tool; (1) development of a risk monitor, Risk Monster, (2) improvement of McFarm (Missing Cutsets Finding Algorithm for Risk Monitor) and finally (3) development of reliability database management system, KwDBMan. Risk Monster supports for plant operators and maintenance schedulers to monitor plant risk and to avoid high peak risk by rearranging maintenance work schedule. Improved McFarm significantly improved calculation speed of Risk Monster for the cases of supporting system OOS (Out Of Service). KwDBMan manages event data, generic data and CCF (Common Cause Failure) data to support Risk Monster as well as PSA tool, KIRAP (KAERI Integrated Reliability Analysis Package)

  6. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  7. Computational toxicology as implemented by the U.S. EPA: providing high throughput decision support tools for screening and assessing chemical exposure, hazard and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavlock, Robert; Dix, David

    2010-02-01

    Computational toxicology is the application of mathematical and computer models to help assess chemical hazards and risks to human health and the environment. Supported by advances in informatics, high-throughput screening (HTS) technologies, and systems biology, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency EPA is developing robust and flexible computational tools that can be applied to the thousands of chemicals in commerce, and contaminant mixtures found in air, water, and hazardous-waste sites. The Office of Research and Development (ORD) Computational Toxicology Research Program (CTRP) is composed of three main elements. The largest component is the National Center for Computational Toxicology (NCCT), which was established in 2005 to coordinate research on chemical screening and prioritization, informatics, and systems modeling. The second element consists of related activities in the National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL) and the National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL). The third and final component consists of academic centers working on various aspects of computational toxicology and funded by the U.S. EPA Science to Achieve Results (STAR) program. Together these elements form the key components in the implementation of both the initial strategy, A Framework for a Computational Toxicology Research Program (U.S. EPA, 2003), and the newly released The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Strategic Plan for Evaluating the Toxicity of Chemicals (U.S. EPA, 2009a). Key intramural projects of the CTRP include digitizing legacy toxicity testing information toxicity reference database (ToxRefDB), predicting toxicity (ToxCast) and exposure (ExpoCast), and creating virtual liver (v-Liver) and virtual embryo (v-Embryo) systems models. U.S. EPA-funded STAR centers are also providing bioinformatics, computational toxicology data and models, and developmental toxicity data and models. The models and underlying data are being made publicly

  8. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  9. Cognitive mapping tools: review and risk management needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Matthew D; Bostrom, Ann; Bridges, Todd; Linkov, Igor

    2012-08-01

    Risk managers are increasingly interested in incorporating stakeholder beliefs and other human factors into the planning process. Effective risk assessment and management requires understanding perceptions and beliefs of involved stakeholders, and how these beliefs give rise to actions that influence risk management decisions. Formal analyses of risk manager and stakeholder cognitions represent an important first step. Techniques for diagramming stakeholder mental models provide one tool for risk managers to better understand stakeholder beliefs and perceptions concerning risk, and to leverage this new understanding in developing risk management strategies. This article reviews three methodologies for assessing and diagramming stakeholder mental models--decision-analysis-based mental modeling, concept mapping, and semantic web analysis--and assesses them with regard to their ability to address risk manager needs. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  11. Risk based decision tool for space exploration missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steve; Moran, Terrence

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents an approach and corresponding tool to assess and analyze the risks involved in a mission during the pre-phase A design process. This approach is based on creating a risk template for each subsystem expert involved in the mission design process and defining appropriate interactions between the templates.

  12. A TRANSPORTATION RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL FOR ANALYZING THE TRANSPORT OF SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL AND HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE TO THE PROPOSED YUCCA MOUNTAIN REPOSITORY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The Yucca Mountain Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) analysis addressed the potential for transporting spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste from 77 origins for 34 types of spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste, 49,914 legal weight truck shipments, and 10,911 rail shipments. The analysis evaluated transportation over 59,250 unique shipment links for travel outside Nevada (shipment segments in urban, suburban or rural zones by state), and 22,611 links in Nevada. In addition, the analysis modeled the behavior of 41 isotopes, 1091 source terms, and used 8850 food transfer factors (distinct factors by isotope for each state). The analysis also used mode-specific accident rates for legal weight truck, rail, and heavy haul truck by state, and barge by waterway. This complex mix of data and information required an innovative approach to assess the transportation impacts. The approach employed a Microsoft(reg s ign) Access database tool that incorporated data from many sources, including unit risk factors calculated using the RADTRAN IV transportation risk assessment computer program. Using Microsoft(reg s ign) Access, the analysts organized data (such as state-specific accident and fatality rates) into tables and developed queries to obtain the overall transportation impacts. Queries are instructions to the database describing how to use data contained in the database tables. While a query might be applied to thousands of table entries, there is only one sequence of queries that is used to calculate a particular transportation impact. For example, the incident-free dose to off-link populations in a state is calculated by a query that uses route segment lengths for each route in a state that could be used by shipments, populations for each segment, number of shipments on each segment, and an incident-free unit risk factor calculated using RADTRAN IV. In addition to providing a method for using large volumes of data in the calculations, the

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  15. Development of the Remedial Action Priority System: an improved risk assessment tool for prioritizing hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whelan, G.; Strenge, D.L.; Steelman, B.L.; Hawley, K.A.

    1985-08-01

    The Remedial Action Priority System (RAPS) represents a methodology that prioritizes inactive hazardous and radioactive mixed-waste disposal sites in a scientific and objective manner based on limited site information. This methodology is intended to bridge the technology gap that exists between the initial site evaluation using the Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and the time-consuming process of actual field site characterization, assessment, and remediation efforts. The HRS was designed as an initial screening tool to discriminate between hazardous waste sites that do not and those that are likely to pose significant problems to human health, safety, and/or the environment. The HRS is used by the US Environmental Protection Agency to identify sites for nomination to the National Priorites List (NPL). Because the HRS is not designed to evaluate sites containing radionuclides, a modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS) addressing both hazardous and radioactive mixed wastes was developed by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for the US Department of Energy (DOE). Neither the HRS nor the mHRS was designed to prioritize sites that are nominated to the NPL according to their potential risks. 15 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  16. Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Air Transportation System: An Independent Assessment of TSA’s Risk Management Analysis Tool and Associated Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    considered under RMAT, expanding the range of attack pathways available to attackers, and inclusion of off-airport freight pro- cessing, catering ...perspectives on risk from Boeing and from consultations with Randy Harris of Delta Airlines , Eric Thacker of the Air Transport Association, and Chris...multiple first-class airline tickets) and, as a result, less attractive than publicly available information, which is relatively inexpensive. It

  17. Simulation modelling and risk assessment as tools to identify the impact of climate change on microbiological food safety – The case study of fresh produce supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacxsens, L.; Luning, P.A.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.; Devlieghere, F.; Leemans, R.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    The current quality assurance and control tools and methods to prevent and/or to control microbiological risks associated with fresh produce are challenged due to the following pressures upon the food supply chain, i.e. changing consumption patterns, globalization and climate change. It demonstrates

  18. Draught risk index tool for building energy simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vorre, Mette Havgaard; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Nielsen, Peter V.

    2014-01-01

    Flow elements combined with a building energy simulation tool can be used to indicate areas and periods when there is a risk of draught in a room. The study tests this concept by making a tool for post-processing of data from building energy simulations. The objective is to show indications...... of draught risk during a whole year, giving building designers a tool for the design stage of a building. The tool uses simple one-at-a-time calculations of flow elements and assesses the uncertainty of the result by counting the number of overlapping flow elements. The calculation time is low, making...... it usable in the early design stage to optimise the building layout. The tool provides an overview of the general draught pattern over a period, e.g. a whole year, and of how often there is a draught risk....

  19. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  20. Calculational Tool for Skin Contamination Dose Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Hill, R L

    2002-01-01

    Spreadsheet calculational tool was developed to automate the calculations preformed for dose assessment of skin contamination. This document reports on the design and testing of the spreadsheet calculational tool.

  1. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  2. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  3. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  4. Air Traffic Control Tools Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Noskievič

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Undoubtedly air transport in today’s world wouldn’t be able to exist without any air traffic control service. As the air transport has been coming through major changes and it has been expanding, it is assumed that its volume will be doubled in the next 15 years. Air traffic control uses strictly organised procedures to ensure safe course of air operations. With the skies covered with more airplanes every year, new tools must be introduced to allow the controllers to manage this rising amount of flying aircraft and to keep the air transport safe. This paper provides a comprehensive and organized material, which describes the newest tools and systems used by air traffic control officers. It proposes improvements for further research and development of ATC tools.

  5. Developing methodology and tools for integrated assessment of the risks of global environmental change: Analyzing uncertainty, risk assessment, risk perception, expert judgment, and a case study on sea level rise. Report of collaborative research, July 1991--June 1993: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lancaster, J.; Shlyakhter, A.; Wilson, R.

    1993-01-01

    Members of Congress, federal administrators, state regulators, city planners, corporate strategists and private citizens face decisions that may or may not warrant considering the potential impacts of climate change. The extent to which the global warming issue will weigh in these many decisions will be determined by (a) expert scientific judgement about global warming and its potential impacts, (b) public perception of the global warming problem, (c) uncertainties, and (d) other legal and political factors controlling the entry of a large-scale environmental issue into many avenues of decision making. The complexity and uncertainty surrounding the problem of climate change present new challenges to our ability to formulate rational decisions. The authors provide a methodical approach to characterizing the risks of global warming in a way that will be useful to decision makers

  6. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  7. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  8. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  9. Development of configuration risk management tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masuda, Takahiro; Doi, Eiji

    2003-01-01

    Tokyo Electric Power Company (referred to as TEPCO hereinafter), and other Japanese utilities as well, have been trying to improve the capacity factor of their Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) through modernization of Operation and Maintenance strategy. TEPCO intends to apply risk information to O and M field with maintaining or even improving both safety and production efficiency. Under these situations, TEPCO with some BWR utilities started to develop a Configuration Risk Management (CRM) tool that can estimate risk in various plant conditions due to configuration changes during outage. Moreover, we also intend to apply CRM to on-line maintenance (OLM) in the near future. This tool can calculate the Core Damage Frequency (CDF) according to given plant condition, such as SSCs availability, decay heat level and the inventory of coolant in both outage state and full-power operation. From deterministic viewpoint, whether certain configuration meet the related requirements of Technical Specifications. User-friendly interface is one of the important features of this tool because this enables the site engineers with little experience in PSA to quantify and utilize the risk information by this tool. (author)

  10. Predictive Validity of the HKT-R Risk Assessment Tool: Two and 5-Year Violent Recidivism in a Nationwide Sample of Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogaerts, Stefan; Spreen, Marinus; Ter Horst, Paul; Gerlsma, Coby

    2018-06-01

    This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [ Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the Netherlands. Predictive validity was measured 2 and 5 years after release. Official reconviction data obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice were used as outcome measures. Violent reoffending within 2 and 5 years after discharge was assessed. With regard to violent reoffending, results indicated that the predictive validity of the Historical domain was modest for 2 (area under the curve [AUC] = .75) and 5 (AUC = .74) years. The predictive validity of the Clinical domain was marginal for 2 (admission: AUC = .62; discharge: AUC = .63) and 5 (admission: AUC = .69; discharge: AUC = .62) years after release. The predictive validity of the Future domain was modest (AUC = .71) for 2 years and low for 5 (AUC = .58) years. The total score of the instrument was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .68) years. Finally, the Final Risk Judgment was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .63) years time at risk. It is concluded that this risk assessment instrument appears to be a satisfactory instrument for risk assessment.

  11. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  12. Rapid Quantification of Viable Campylobacter Bacteria on Chicken Carcasses, Using Real-Time PCR and Propidium Monoazide Treatment, as a Tool for Quantitative Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Mathilde Hartmann; Löfström, Charlotta; Hansen, Tina Beck

    2010-01-01

    A number of intervention strategies against Campylobacter contaminated poultry focus on post-slaughter reduction of the number of cells, emphasizing the need for rapid and reliable quantitative detection of only viable Campylobacter. We present a new and rapid quantitative approach for enumeration...... method does not detect DNA from dead Campylobacter, but recognises the infectious potential of the VBNC state, and is thereby able to assess the effect of control strategies, and provide trustworthy data for risk assessment....

  13. Youth Offender Care Needs Assessment Tool (YO-CNAT): an actuarial risk assessment tool for predicting problematic child-rearing situations in juvenile offenders on the basis of police records

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Put, C.E.; Stams, G.J.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the juvenile justice system, much attention is paid to estimating the risk for recidivism among juvenile offenders. However, it is also important to estimate the risk for problematic child-rearing situations (care needs) in juvenile offenders, because these problems are not always related to

  14. Predictive validity of the HKT-R risk assessment tool: : Two and 5-year violent recidivism in a nationwide sample of Dutch forensic psychiatric patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bogaerts, Stefan; Spreen, Marinus; Ter Horst, Paul; Gerlsma, Coby

    2017-01-01

    Abstract This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the

  15. A tool for rapid assessment of erosion risk to support decision-making and policy development at the Ngenge watershed in Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mutekanga, F.P.; Visser, S.M.; Stroosnijder, L.

    2010-01-01

    This study tests a rapid, user-friendly method for assessing changes in erosion risk, which yields information to aid policy development and decision-making for sustainable natural resources management. There is currently a lack of timely, up-to-date and current information to support policy

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  17. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  18. Exposure Assessment Tools by Lifestages and Populations - General Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA ExpoBox is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases

  19. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  20. Risk determination after an acute myocardial infarction: review of 3 clinical risk prediction tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scruth, Elizabeth Ann; Page, Karen; Cheng, Eugene; Campbell, Michelle; Worrall-Carter, Linda

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the study was to provide comprehensive information for the clinical nurse specialist (CNS) on commonly used clinical prediction (risk assessment) tools used to estimate risk of a secondary cardiac or noncardiac event and mortality in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The evolution and widespread adoption of primary PCI represent major advances in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction, specifically STEMI. The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association have recommended early risk stratification for patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes using several clinical risk scores to identify patients' mortality and secondary event risk after PCI. Clinical nurse specialists are integral to any performance improvement strategy. Their knowledge and understandings of clinical prediction tools will be essential in carrying out important assessment, identifying and managing risk in patients who have sustained a STEMI, and enhancing discharge education including counseling on medications and lifestyle changes. Over the past 2 decades, risk scores have been developed from clinical trials to facilitate risk assessment. There are several risk scores that can be used to determine in-hospital and short-term survival. This article critiques the most common tools: the Thrombolytic in Myocardial Infarction risk score, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, and the Controlled Abciximab and Device Investigation to Lower Late Angioplasty Complications risk score. The importance of incorporating risk screening assessment tools (that are important for clinical prediction models) to guide therapeutic management of patients cannot be underestimated. The ability to forecast secondary risk after a STEMI will assist in determining which patients would require the most aggressive level of treatment and monitoring postintervention including

  1. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  2. Health impact assessment – A survey on quantifying tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [Fakultaet fuer Gesundheitswissenschaften, Universitaet Bielefeld, Universitaetsstr. 25, 33615 Bielefeld (Germany); Mekel, Odile C.L., E-mail: odile.mekel@lzg.nrw.de [Gesundheitsdaten und analysen, Versorgungsstrukturen, Landeszentrum Gesundheit Nordrhein-Westfalen (LZG.NRW), Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Fintan Hurley, J., E-mail: fintan.hurley@iom-world.org [Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM), Research Avenue North, Riccarton, Edinburgh EH14 4AP, Scotland (United Kingdom); Mackenbach, Johan P., E-mail: j.mackenbach@erasmusmc.nl [Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2016-02-15

    Integrating human health into prospective impact assessments is known to be challenging. This is true for both approaches: dedicated health impact assessments (HIA) as well as inclusion of health into more general impact assessments. Acknowledging the full range of participatory, qualitative, and quantitative approaches, this study focuses on the latter, especially on computational tools for quantitative health modelling. We conducted a survey among tool developers concerning the status quo of development and availability of such tools; experiences made with model usage in real-life situations; and priorities for further development. Responding toolmaker groups described 17 such tools, most of them being maintained and reported as ready for use and covering a wide range of topics, including risk & protective factors, exposures, policies, and health outcomes. In recent years, existing models have been improved and were applied in new ways, and completely new models emerged. There was high agreement among respondents on the need to further develop methods for assessment of inequalities and uncertainty. The contribution of quantitative modeling to health foresight would benefit from building joint strategies of further tool development, improving the visibility of quantitative tools and methods, and engaging continuously with actual and potential users. - Highlights: • A survey investigated computational tools for health impact quantification. • Formal evaluation of such tools has been rare. • Handling inequalities and uncertainties are priority areas for further development. • Health foresight would benefit from tool developers and users forming a community. • Joint development strategies across computational tools are needed.

  3. Health impact assessment – A survey on quantifying tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fehr, Rainer; Mekel, Odile C.L.; Fintan Hurley, J.; Mackenbach, Johan P.

    2016-01-01

    Integrating human health into prospective impact assessments is known to be challenging. This is true for both approaches: dedicated health impact assessments (HIA) as well as inclusion of health into more general impact assessments. Acknowledging the full range of participatory, qualitative, and quantitative approaches, this study focuses on the latter, especially on computational tools for quantitative health modelling. We conducted a survey among tool developers concerning the status quo of development and availability of such tools; experiences made with model usage in real-life situations; and priorities for further development. Responding toolmaker groups described 17 such tools, most of them being maintained and reported as ready for use and covering a wide range of topics, including risk & protective factors, exposures, policies, and health outcomes. In recent years, existing models have been improved and were applied in new ways, and completely new models emerged. There was high agreement among respondents on the need to further develop methods for assessment of inequalities and uncertainty. The contribution of quantitative modeling to health foresight would benefit from building joint strategies of further tool development, improving the visibility of quantitative tools and methods, and engaging continuously with actual and potential users. - Highlights: • A survey investigated computational tools for health impact quantification. • Formal evaluation of such tools has been rare. • Handling inequalities and uncertainties are priority areas for further development. • Health foresight would benefit from tool developers and users forming a community. • Joint development strategies across computational tools are needed.

  4. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  5. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  6. Life cycle and human health risk assessments as tools for decision making in the design and implementation of nanofiltration in drinking water treatment plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribera, G; Clarens, F; Martínez-Lladó, X; Jubany, I; V Martí; Rovira, M

    2014-01-01

    A combined methodology using life cycle assessment (LCA) and human health risk assessment (HHR) is proposed in order to select the percentage of water in drinking water treatment plants (DWTP) that should be nanofiltered (NF). The methodological approach presented here takes into account environmental and social benefit criteria evaluating the implementation of new processes into conventional ones. The inclusion of NF process improves drinking water quality, reduces HHR but, in turn, increases environmental impacts as a result of energy and material demand. Results from this study lead to balance the increase of the impact in various environmental categories with the reduction in human health risk as a consequence of the respective drinking water production and consumption. From an environmental point of view, the inclusion of NF and recommended pretreatments to produce 43% of the final drinking water means that the environmental impact is nearly doubled in comparison with conventional plant in impact categories severely related with electricity production, like climate change. On the other hand, the carcinogenic risk (HHR) associated to trihalomethane formation potential (THMFP) decreases with the increase in NF percentage use. Results show a reduction of one order of magnitude for the carcinogenic risk index when 100% of drinking water is produced by NF. © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  8. Technology-assisted risk of bias assessment in systematic reviews: a prospective cross-sectional evaluation of the RobotReviewer machine learning tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gates, Allison; Vandermeer, Ben; Hartling, Lisa

    2018-04-01

    To evaluate the reliability of RobotReviewer's risk of bias judgments. In this prospective cross-sectional evaluation, we used RobotReviewer to assess risk of bias among 1,180 trials. We computed reliability with human reviewers using Cohen's kappa coefficient and calculated sensitivity and specificity. We investigated differences in reliability by risk of bias domain, topic, and outcome type using the chi-square test in meta-analysis. Reliability (95% CI) was moderate for random sequence generation (0.48 [0.43, 0.53]), allocation concealment (0.45 [0.40, 0.51]), and blinding of participants and personnel (0.42 [0.36, 0.47]); fair for overall risk of bias (0.34 [0.25, 0.44]); and slight for blinding of outcome assessors (0.10 [0.06, 0.14]), incomplete outcome data (0.14 [0.08, 0.19]), and selective reporting (0.02 [-0.02, 0.05]). Reliability for blinding of participants and personnel (P < 0.001), blinding of outcome assessors (P = 0.005), selective reporting (P < 0.001), and overall risk of bias (P < 0.001) differed by topic. Sensitivity and specificity (95% CI) ranged from 0.20 (0.18, 0.23) to 0.76 (0.72, 0.80) and from 0.61 (0.56, 0.65) to 0.95 (0.93, 0.96), respectively. Risk of bias appraisal is subjective. Compared with reliability between author groups, RobotReviewer's reliability with human reviewers was similar for most domains and better for allocation concealment, blinding of participants and personnel, and overall risk of bias. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Systemic Assessment as a New Tool for Assessing Students ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Systemic Assessment as a New Tool for Assessing Students Learning in Chemistry using SATL Methods: Systemic Matching, Systemic Synthesis, Systemic Analysis, Systemic Synthetic – Analytic, as Systemic Question Types.

  10. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  11. Comparison of occupational exposure assessment tools and concepts for nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liguori, Biase; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    The development, production and application of engineered nanomaterials have been growing in different fields. This leads to a consequent increased potential of exposure to nanomaterials in the working environment. However to determine the potential exposure risk is a challenging task for risk...... for Nanomaterials”; “NanoSafer vs. 1.1 – A web-based precautionary risk assessment tool for manufactured nanomaterials using first order modeling” Based on the literature information we have analyzed these tools and discussed elements regarding: the domain of application and whether it accounts for the nanospecific...... factor or nano-relevance; the work exposure scenario, for which types of processes they may be used; are the tools using the source-transmission-receptor approach; the input data requirements; whether the tools included qualitative or semi-quantitative or quantitative evaluations of the exposure; whether...

  12. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  13. Providing access to risk prediction tools via the HL7 XML-formatted risk web service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chipman, Jonathan; Drohan, Brian; Blackford, Amanda; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Hughes, Kevin; Bosinoff, Phil

    2013-07-01

    Cancer risk prediction tools provide valuable information to clinicians but remain computationally challenging. Many clinics find that CaGene or HughesRiskApps fit their needs for easy- and ready-to-use software to obtain cancer risks; however, these resources may not fit all clinics' needs. The HughesRiskApps Group and BayesMendel Lab therefore developed a web service, called "Risk Service", which may be integrated into any client software to quickly obtain standardized and up-to-date risk predictions for BayesMendel tools (BRCAPRO, MMRpro, PancPRO, and MelaPRO), the Tyrer-Cuzick IBIS Breast Cancer Risk Evaluation Tool, and the Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool. Software clients that can convert their local structured data into the HL7 XML-formatted family and clinical patient history (Pedigree model) may integrate with the Risk Service. The Risk Service uses Apache Tomcat and Apache Axis2 technologies to provide an all Java web service. The software client sends HL7 XML information containing anonymized family and clinical history to a Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (DFCI) server, where it is parsed, interpreted, and processed by multiple risk tools. The Risk Service then formats the results into an HL7 style message and returns the risk predictions to the originating software client. Upon consent, users may allow DFCI to maintain the data for future research. The Risk Service implementation is exemplified through HughesRiskApps. The Risk Service broadens the availability of valuable, up-to-date cancer risk tools and allows clinics and researchers to integrate risk prediction tools into their own software interface designed for their needs. Each software package can collect risk data using its own interface, and display the results using its own interface, while using a central, up-to-date risk calculator. This allows users to choose from multiple interfaces while always getting the latest risk calculations. Consenting users contribute their data for future

  14. Children and Young People-Mental Health Safety Assessment Tool (CYP-MH SAT) study: Protocol for the development and psychometric evaluation of an assessment tool to identify immediate risk of self-harm and suicide in children and young people (10–19 years) in acute paediatric hospital settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Gemma M; Carter, Tim; Aubeeluck, Aimee; Witchell, Miranda; Coad, Jane

    2018-01-01

    Introduction Currently, no standardised, evidence-based assessment tool for assessing immediate self-harm and suicide in acute paediatric inpatient settings exists. Aim The aim of this study is to develop and test the psychometric properties of an assessment tool that identifies immediate risk of self-harm and suicide in children and young people (10–19 years) in acute paediatric hospital settings. Methods and analysis Development phase: This phase involved a scoping review of the literature to identify and extract items from previously published suicide and self-harm risk assessment scales. Using a modified electronic Delphi approach, these items will then be rated according to their relevance for assessment of immediate suicide or self-harm risk by expert professionals. Inclusion of items will be determined by 65%–70% consensus between raters. Subsequently, a panel of expert members will convene to determine the face validity, appropriate phrasing, item order and response format for the finalised items. Psychometric testing phase: The finalised items will be tested for validity and reliability through a multicentre, psychometric evaluation. Psychometric testing will be undertaken to determine the following: internal consistency, inter-rater reliability, convergent, divergent validity and concurrent validity. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval was provided by the National Health Service East Midlands—Derby Research Ethics Committee (17/EM/0347) and full governance clearance received by the Health Research Authority and local participating sites. Findings from this study will be disseminated to professionals and the public via peer-reviewed journal publications, popular social media and conference presentations. PMID:29654046

  15. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  16. Automated Assessment in a Programming Tools Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez Aleman, J. L.

    2011-01-01

    Automated assessment systems can be useful for both students and instructors. Ranking and immediate feedback can have a strongly positive effect on student learning. This paper presents an experience using automatic assessment in a programming tools course. The proposal aims at extending the traditional use of an online judging system with a…

  17. Designing Online Assessment Tools for Disengaged Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brader, Andy; Luke, Allan; Klenowski, Val; Connolly, Stephen; Behzadpour, Adib

    2014-01-01

    This article reports on the development of online assessment tools for disengaged youth in flexible learning environments. Sociocultural theories of learning and assessment and Bourdieu's sociological concepts of capital and exchange were used to design a purpose-built content management system. This design experiment engaged participants in…

  18. Tools for the Assessment of Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappas, Marjorie L.

    2007-01-01

    Assessment tools enable both learning and assessing. They also give library media specialists snapshots of evidence that demonstrates student understanding of the Information Literacy Standards. Over time the evidence provide a more complete picture of learners' ability to gather, evaluate, and use information to solve problems, make decisions,…

  19. Web-enabling Ecological Risk Assessment for Accessibility and Transparency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecological risk methods and tools are necessarily diverse to account for different combinations of receptors, exposure processes, effects estimation, and degree of conservatism/realism necessary to support chemical-based assessments. These tools have been continuously developed s...

  20. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  1. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  2. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  3. New evaluation tool now available to assess research quality | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-25

    Apr 25, 2016 ... New evaluation tool now available to assess research quality ... Ratings on a scale defined by rubrics, to indicate the level at which a project ... Report: The value-for-money discourse: risks and opportunities for research for development ... Copyright · Open access policy · Privacy policy · Research ethics ...

  4. A Transportation Risk Assessment Tool for Analyzing the Transport of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste to the Proposed Yucca Mountain Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Best, Ralph; Winnard, T.; Ross, S.; Best, R.

    2001-01-01

    The Yucca Mountain Transportation Database was developed as a data management tool for assembling and integrating data from multiple sources to compile the potential transportation impacts presented in the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for a Geologic Repository for the Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste at Yucca Mountain, Nye County, Nevada (DEIS). The database uses the results from existing models and codes such as RADTRAN, RISKIND, INTERLINE, and HIGHWAY to estimate transportation-related impacts of transporting spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste from commercial reactors and U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities to Yucca Mountain. The source tables in the database are compendiums of information from many diverse sources including: radionuclide quantities for each waste type; route and route characteristics for rail, legal-weight truck, heavy haul. truck, and barge transport options; state-specific accident and fatality rates for routes selected for analysis; packaging and shipment data by waste type; unit risk factors; the complex behavior of the packaged waste forms in severe transport accidents; and the effects of exposure to radiation or the isotopic specific effects of radionclides should they be released in severe transportation accidents. The database works together with the codes RADTRAN (Neuhauser, et al, 1994) and RISKlND (Yuan, et al, 1995) to calculate incident-free dose and accident risk. For the incident-free transportation scenario, the database uses RADTRAN and RISKIND-generated data to calculate doses to offlink populations, onlink populations, people at stops, crews, inspectors, workers at intermodal transfer stations, guards at overnight stops, and escorts, as well as non-radioactive pollution health effects. For accident scenarios, the database uses RADTRAN-generated data to calculate dose risks based on ingestion, inhalation, resuspension, immersion (cloudshine), and groundshine as

  5. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  6. Landfill waste and recycling: Use of a screening-level risk assessment tool for end-of-life cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film photovoltaic (PV) panels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyrs, William D.; Avens, Heather J.; Capshaw, Zachary A.; Kingsbury, Robert A.; Sahmel, Jennifer; Tvermoes, Brooke E.

    2014-01-01

    Grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) power is currently one of the fastest growing power-generation technologies in the world. While PV technologies provide the environmental benefit of zero emissions during use, the use of heavy metals in thin-film PV cells raises important health and environmental concerns regarding the end-of-life disposal of PV panels. To date, there is no published quantitative assessment of the potential human health risk due to cadmium leaching from cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV panels disposed in a landfill. Thus, we used a screening-level risk assessment tool to estimate possible human health risk associated with disposal of CdTe panels into landfills. In addition, we conducted a literature review of potential cadmium release from the recycling process in order to contrast the potential health risks from PV panel disposal in landfills to those from PV panel recycling. Based on the results of our literature review, a meaningful risk comparison cannot be performed at this time. Based on the human health risk estimates generated for PV panel disposal, our assessment indicated that landfill disposal of CdTe panels does not pose a human health hazard at current production volumes, although our results pointed to the importance of CdTe PV panel end-of-life management. - Highlights: • Analysis of possible human health risk posed by disposal of CdTe panels into landfills. • Qualitative comparison of risks associated with landfill disposal and recycling of CdTe panels. • Landfill disposal of CdTe panels does not pose a human health hazard at current production volumes. • There could be potential risks associated with recycling if not properly managed. • Factors other than concerns over toxic substances will likely drive the decisions of how to manage end-of-life PV panels

  7. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  8. Using risk based tools in emergency response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, B.W.; Ferns, K.G.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques are used by the nuclear industry to model the potential response of a reactor subjected to unusual conditions. The knowledge contained in these models can aid in emergency response decision making. This paper presents requirements for a PRA based emergency response support system to date. A brief discussion of published work provides background for a detailed description of recent developments. A rapid deep assessment capability for specific portions of full plant models is presented. The program uses a screening rule base to control search space expansion in a combinational algorithm

  9. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  10. Forest Landscape Assessment Tool (FLAT): rapid assessment for land management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa Ciecko; David Kimmett; Jesse Saunders; Rachael Katz; Kathleen L. Wolf; Oliver Bazinet; Jeffrey Richardson; Weston Brinkley; Dale J. Blahna

    2016-01-01

    The Forest Landscape Assessment Tool (FLAT) is a set of procedures and tools used to rapidly determine forest ecological conditions and potential threats. FLAT enables planners and managers to understand baseline conditions, determine and prioritize restoration needs across a landscape system, and conduct ongoing monitoring to achieve land management goals. The rapid...

  11. Gas Migration Project: Risk Assessment Tool and Computational Analyses to Investigate Wellbore/Mine Interactions, Secretary's Potash Area, Southeastern New Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobolik, Steven R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Geomechanics Dept.; Hadgu, Teklu [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Nuclear Waste Disposal Research and Analysis Dept.; Rechard, Robert P. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Nuclear Waste Disposal Research and Analysis Dept.

    2016-05-01

    The Bureau of Land Management (BLM), US Department of the Interior has asked Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) to perform scientific studies relevant to technical issues that arise in the development of co-located resources of potash and petroleum in southeastern New Mexico in the Secretary’s Potash Area. The BLM manages resource development, issues permits and interacts with the State of New Mexico in the process of developing regulations, in an environment where many issues are disputed by industry stakeholders. The present report is a deliverable of the study of the potential for gas migration from a wellbore to a mine opening in the event of wellbore leakage, a risk scenario about which there is disagreement among stakeholders and little previous site specific analysis. One goal of this study was to develop a framework that required collaboratively developed inputs and analytical approaches in order to encourage stakeholder participation and to employ ranges of data values and scenarios. SNL presents here a description of a basic risk assessment (RA) framework that will fulfill the initial steps of meeting that goal. SNL used the gas migration problem to set up example conceptual models, parameter sets and computer models and as a foundation for future development of RA to support BLM resource development.

  12. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  13. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  14. Integrating Risk Analyses and Tools at the DOE Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LOBER, R.W.

    2002-01-01

    Risk assessment and environmental impact analysis at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site in Washington State has made significant progress in refining the strategy for using risk analysis to support closing of several hundred waste sites plus 149 single-shell tanks at the Hanford Site. A Single-Shell Tank System Closure Work Plan outlines the current basis for closing the single-shell tank systems. An analogous site approach has been developed to address closure of aggregated groups of similar waste sites. Because of the complexity, decision time frames, proximity of non-tank farm waste sites to tank farms, scale, and regulatory considerations, various projects are providing integrated assessments to support risk analyses and decision-making. Projects and the tools that are being developed and applied at Hanford to support retrieval and cleanup decisions include: (1) Life Cycle Model (LCM) and Risk Receptor Model (RRM)--A site-level set of tools to support strategic analyses through scoping level risk management to assess different alternatives and options for tank closure. (2) Systems Assessment Capability for Integrated Groundwater Nadose Zone (SAC) and the Site-Wide Groundwater Model (SWGM)--A site-wide groundwater modeling system coupled with a risk-based uncertainty analysis of inventory, vadose zone, groundwater, and river interactions for evaluating cumulative impacts from individual and aggregate waste sites. (3) Retrieval Performance Evaluation (RPE)--A site-specific, risk-based methodology developed to evaluate performance of waste retrieval, leak detection and closure on a tank-specific basis as a function of past tank Leaks, potential leakage during retrieval operations, and remaining residual waste inventories following completion of retrieval operations. (4) Field Investigation Report (FIR)--A corrective action program to investigate the nature and extent of past tank leaks through characterization activities and assess future impacts to

  15. Agricultural Supply Chain Risk Assessment in the Caribbean

    OpenAIRE

    Arias Carballo, Diego; Laura, dos Reis

    2013-01-01

    A rapid agricultural supply chain risk assessment, recently developed by the World Bank, constitutes a useful tool for a system-wide approach to identify risks, risk exposure, the severity of potential loses, and options for risk management either by supply chain participants (individually or collectively) or by third parties (government). Supply chain risk management is the systematic pro...

  16. Requirements for water assessment tools: An automotive industry perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherry A. Mueller

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Water availability is one of the greatest global sustainability challenges. Water is not available in adequate quantity and quality in many areas and water shortfalls are expected to increase. Businesses are facing water-related challenges due to inadequate water availability and poor resource management. Identifying and quantifying impacts is key to enabling companies to make effective management decisions. Several water assessment tools have been developed to help companies understand the complex nature of water challenges; however, there remain significant gaps in the datasets and inconsistencies in measurement and reporting of geographic water shortfalls. There is a need for more complete datasets containing information on water withdrawal and discharge, freshwater availability and depletion (spatially and temporally, water quality monitoring, reuse and recycling. We discuss four of the available water assessment tools (Global Water Tool, India Water Tool, Water Risk Filter and Aqueduct and highlight those elements most critical to water-related business decisions.

  17. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  18. Software Tools Used for Continuous Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corina SBUGHEA

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available he present paper addresses the subject of continuous evaluation and of the IT tools that support it. The approach starts from the main concepts and methods used in the teaching process, according to the assessment methodology and, then, it focuses on their implementation in the Wondershare QuizCreator software.

  19. AGWA: The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment Tool (AGWA, see: www.tucson.ars.ag.gov/agwa or http://www.epa.gov/esd/land-sci/agwa/) is a GIS interface jointly developed by the USDA-Agricultural Research Service, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the University of Arizona...

  20. A Suite of Tools for Technology Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-01

    Saden, Povinelli & Rosen, 1989). • This was a significant change in emphasis on the part of NASA, where technology had previously viewed as merely...Cost Analysis Symposium, April 13, 2005. A Suite of Tools for Technology Assessment 24 Bibliography - continued: • Sadin, Stanley T.; Povinelli

  1. Innovative Tools to Assess Systems Thinking Ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    addition to the six cognitive ability constructs, there are two motivational attributes that are highly relevant to systems thinking performance...roles of the habenular complex, the reward system , and the cingulate motor area revealed by functional magnetic resonance imaging. Journal of...Technical Report 1362 Innovative Tools to Assess Systems Thinking Ability Cory Adis Michelle Wisecarver Chelsey Raber Personnel

  2. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  3. Validation of the Australian Midwifery Standards Assessment Tool (AMSAT): A tool to assess midwifery competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet, Linda; Bazargan, Maryam; McKellar, Lois; Gray, Joanne; Henderson, Amanda

    2018-02-01

    There is no current validated clinical assessment tool to measure the attainment of midwifery student competence in the midwifery practice setting. The lack of a valid assessment tool has led to a proliferation of tools and inconsistency in assessment of, and feedback on student learning. This research aimed to develop and validate a tool to assess competence of midwifery students in practice-based settings. A mixed-methods approach was used and the study implemented in two phases. Phase one involved the development of the AMSAT tool with qualitative feedback from midwifery academics, midwife assessors of students, and midwifery students. In phase two the newly developed AMSAT tool was piloted across a range of midwifery practice settings and ANOVA was used to compare scores across year levels, with feedback being obtained from assessors. Analysis of 150 AMSAT forms indicate the AMSAT as: reliable (Cronbach alpha greater than 0.9); valid-data extraction loaded predominantly onto one factor; and sensitivity scores indicating level of proficiency increased across the three years. Feedback evaluation forms (n=83) suggest acceptance of this tool for the purpose of both assessing and providing feedback on midwifery student's practice performance and competence. The AMSAT is a valid, reliable and acceptable midwifery assessment tool enables consistent assessment of midwifery student competence. This assists benchmarking across midwifery education programs. Copyright © 2017 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  5. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  6. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  7. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  8. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  9. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  10. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  11. Marine Litter, Eutrophication and Noise Assessment Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazov, Atanas; Velcheva, Maya; Milkova, Tanya; Slabakova, Violeta; Marinova, Veselka

    2017-04-01

    MARLEN - Marine Litter, Eutrophication and Noise Assessment Tools is a project under the Programme BG02.03: Increased capacity for assessing and predicting environmental status in marine and inland waters, managed by Bulgarian Ministry of environment and waters and co-financed by the Financial Mechanism of the European Economic Area (EEA FM) 2009 - 2014. Project Beneficiary is the Institute of oceanology - Bulgarian Academy of Sciences with two partners: Burgas municipality and Bulgarian Black Sea Basin Directorate. Initial assessment of ecological state of Bulgarian marine waters showed lack of data for some descriptors of MSFD. The main goal of MARLEN is to build up tools for assessment of marine environment by implementing new technologies and best practices for addressing three main areas of interest with lack of marine data in particular: a) Marine litter detection and classification in coastal areas; b) Regular near real time surface water eutrophication monitoring on large aquatory; c) Underwater noise monitoring. Developed tools are an important source of real time, near real time and delay mode marine data for Bulgarian Black Sea waters. The partnership within the project increased capacity for environmental assessments and training of personnel and enhances collaboration between scientific institutes, regional and local authorities. Project results supported implementation of MSFD in Bulgarian marine waters for the benefit of coastal population, marine industry, tourism, marine research and marine spatial planning.

  12. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  13. Exposure Assessment Tools by Tiers and Types - Deterministic and Probabilistic Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA ExpoBox is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases

  14. Civil migration and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onishi, Y.; Brown, S.M.; Olsen, A.R.; Parkhurst, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    To provide a scientific basis for risk assessment and decision making, the Chemical Migration and Risk Assessment (CMRA) Methodology was developed to simulate overland and instream toxic containment migration and fate, and to predict the probability of acute and chronic impacts on aquatic biota. The simulation results indicated that the time between the pesticide application and the subsequent runoff producing event was the most important factor determining the amount of the alachlor. The study also revealed that sediment transport has important effects on contaminant migration when sediment concentrations in receiving streams are high or contaminants are highly susceptible to adsorption by sediment. Although the capabilities of the CMRA methodology were only partially tested in this study, the results demonstrate that methodology can be used as a scientific decision-making tool for toxic chemical regulations, a research tool to evaluate the relative significance of various transport and degradation phenomena, as well as a tool to examine the effectiveness of toxic chemical control practice

  15. Costs Associated with Using the ASA24® Dietary Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of its mission to advance measures and methods for monitoring cancer-related behaviors and other risk factors, the Risk Factor Assessment Branch provides tools and resources to the extramural research community.

  16. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  17. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  18. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  19. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  20. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    be useful to develop case studies and/or standards of practice for interpreting lines of evidence. In addition, tools for cumulative risk assessment should be developed because contaminants are often released into stressed environments.

  1. The Falls In Care Home study: a feasibility randomized controlled trial of the use of a risk assessment and decision support tool to prevent falls in care homes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Gemma M; Armstrong, Sarah; Gordon, Adam L; Gladman, John; Robertson, Kate; Ward, Marie; Conroy, Simon; Arnold, Gail; Darby, Janet; Frowd, Nadia; Williams, Wynne; Knowles, Sue; Logan, Pip A

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To explore the feasibility of implementing and evaluating the Guide to Action Care Home fall prevention intervention. Design: Two-centre, cluster feasibility randomized controlled trial and process evaluation. Setting: Purposive sample of six diverse old age/learning disability, long stay care homes in Nottinghamshire, UK. Subjects: Residents aged over 50 years, who had fallen at least once in the past year, not bed-bound, hoist-dependent or terminally ill. Interventions: Intervention homes (n = 3) received Guide to Action Care Home fall prevention intervention training and support. Control homes (n = 3) received usual care. Outcomes: Recruitment, attrition, baseline and six-month outcome completion, contamination and intervention fidelity, compliance, tolerability, acceptance and impact. Results: A total of 81 of 145 (56%) care homes expressed participatory interest. Six of 22 letter respondent homes (27%) participated. The expected resident recruitment target was achieved by 76% (52/68). Ten (19%) residents did not complete follow-up (seven died, three moved). In intervention homes 36/114 (32%) staff attended training. Two of three (75%) care homes received protocol compliant training. Staff valued the training, but advised greater management involvement to improve intervention implementation. Fall risks were assessed, actioned and recorded in care records. Of 115 recorded falls, 533/570 (93%) of details were complete. Six-month resident fall rates were 1.9 and 4.0 per year for intervention and control homes, respectively. Conclusions: The Guide to Action Care Home is implementable under trial conditions. Recruitment and follow-up rates indicate that a definitive trial can be completed. Falls (primary outcome) can be ascertained reliably from care records. PMID:26385358

  2. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  3. RISK COMMUNICATION IN ACTION: THE TOOLS OF MESSAGE MAPPING

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risk Communication in Action: The Tools of Message Mapping, is a workbook designed to guide risk communicators in crisis situations. The first part of this workbook will review general guidelines for risk communication. The second part will focus on one of the most robust tools o...

  4. Development of an attrition risk prediction tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, John; Norrie, Peter

    To review lecturers' and students' perceptions of the factors that may lead to attrition from pre-registration nursing and midwifery programmes and to identify ways to reduce the impact of such factors on the student's experience. Comparable attrition rates for nursing and midwifery students across various universities are difficult to monitor accurately; however, estimates that there is approximately a 25% national attrition rate are not uncommon. The financial and human implications of this are significant and worthy of investigation. A study was carried out in one medium-sized UK school of nursing and midwifery, aimed at identifying perceived factors associated with attrition and retention. Thirty-five lecturers were interviewed individually; 605 students completed a questionnaire, and of these, 10 were individually interviewed. Attrition data kept by the student service department were reviewed. Data were collected over an 18-month period in 2007-2008. Regression analysis of the student data identified eight significant predictors. Four of these were 'positive' factors in that they aided student retention and four were 'negative' in that they were associated with students' thoughts of resigning. Student attrition and retention is multifactorial, and, as such, needs to be managed holistically. One aspect of this management could be an attrition risk prediction tool.

  5. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  6. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  7. Dairy farmer use of price risk management tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, C A

    2012-07-01

    Volatility in milk and feed prices can adversely affect dairy farm profitability. Many risk management tools are available for use by US dairy farmers. This research uses surveys of Michigan dairy farmers to examine the extent to which price risk management tools have been used, the farm and operator characteristics that explain the use of these tools, and reasons farmers have not used these tools. A 1999 survey was used to benchmark the degree to which dairy producers had used milk and feed price risk management instruments to compare with 2011 use rates. The surveys collected information about the farm characteristics such as herd size, farmland operated, business organization, and solvency position. Farm operator characteristics collected include age, education, and experience. Dairy farmer use of both milk and feed price risk management tools increased between 1999 and 2011. In 2011, herd size was positively related to the use of milk price risk management tools, whereas farms organized as a sole proprietorship were less likely to use them. Also in 2011, herd size and land operated were positively related to feed price risk management tools, whereas operator age was negatively related. Reasons why farmers had not used price risk management tools included basis risk, cost, lack of management time, cooperative membership, and lack of understanding. Conclusions include the need for educational programming on price risk management tools and a broader exploration of dairy farm risk management programs. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Developing and implementing an oral care policy and assessment tool.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Stout, Michelle

    2012-01-09

    Oral hygiene is an essential aspect of nursing care. Poor oral care results in patients experiencing pain and discomfort, puts individuals at risk of nutritional deficiency and infection, and has an adverse effect on quality of life. This article describes how an oral care policy and assessment tool were updated to ensure the implementation of evidence-based practice at one hospital in the Republic of Ireland.

  9. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  10. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  11. A software tool for ecosystem services assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegels, Niels; Klinting, Anders; Butts, Michael; Middelboe, Anne Lise; Mark, Ole

    2017-04-01

    The EU FP7 DESSIN project is developing methods and tools for assessment of ecosystem services (ESS) and associated economic values, with a focus on freshwater ESS in urban settings. Although the ESS approach has gained considerable visibility over the past ten years, operationalizing the approach remains a challenge. Therefore, DESSSIN is also supporting development of a free software tool to support users implementing the DESSIN ESS evaluation framework. The DESSIN ESS evaluation framework is a structured approach to measuring changes in ecosystem services. The main purpose of the framework is to facilitate the application of the ESS approach in the appraisal of projects that have impacts on freshwater ecosystems and their services. The DESSIN framework helps users evaluate changes in ESS by linking biophysical, economic, and sustainability assessments sequentially. It was developed using the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES) and the DPSIR (Drivers, Pressures, States, Impacts, Responses) adaptive management cycle. The former is a standardized system for the classification of ESS developed by the European Union to enhance the consistency and comparability of ESS assessments. The latter is a well-known concept to disentangle the biophysical and social aspects of a system under study. As part of its analytical component, the DESSIN framework also integrates elements of the Final Ecosystem Goods and Services-Classification System (FEGS-CS) of the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). As implemented in the software tool, the DESSIN framework consists of five parts: • In part I of the evaluation, the ecosystem is defined and described and the local stakeholders are identified. In addition, administrative details and objectives of the assessment are defined. • In part II, drivers and pressures are identified. Once these first two elements of the DPSIR scheme have been characterized, the claimed/expected capabilities of a

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  13. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  14. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  15. Integrating remote sensing approach with pollution monitoring tools for aquatic ecosystem risk assessment and management: a case study of Lake Victoria (Uganda).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Focardi, Silvia; Corsi, Ilaria; Mazzuoli, Stefania; Vignoli, Leonardo; Loiselle, Steven A; Focardi, Silvano

    2006-11-01

    Aquatic ecosystems around the world, lake, estuaries and coastal areas are increasingly impacted by anthropogenic pollutants through different sources such as agricultural, industrial and urban discharges, atmospheric deposition and terrestrial drainage. Lake Victoria is the second largest lake in the world and the largest tropical lake. Bordered by Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya, it provides a livelihood for millions of Africans in the region. However, the lake is under threat from eutrophication, a huge decline in the number of native fish species caused by several factors including loss of biodiversity, over fishing and pollution has been recently documented. Increasing usage of pesticides and insecticides in the adjacent agricultural areas as well as mercury contamination from processing of gold ore on the southern shores are currently considered among the most emergent phenomena of chemical contamination in the lake. By the application of globally consistent and comprehensive geospatial data-sets based on remote sensing integrated with information on heavy metals accumulation and insecticides exposure in native and alien fish populations, the present study aims at assessing the environmental risk associated to the contamination of the Lake Victoria water body on fish health, land cover distribution, biodiversity and the agricultural area surrounding the lake. By the elaboration of Landsat 7 TM data of November 2002 and Landsat 7 TM 1986 we have calculated the agriculture area which borders the Lake Victoria bay, which is an upland plain. The resulting enhanced nutrient loading to the soil is subsequently transported to the lake by rain or as dry fall. The data has been inserted in a Geographical information System (ARCGIS) to be upgraded and consulted. Heavy metals in fish fillets showed concentrations rather low except for mercury being higher than others as already described in previous investigations. In the same tissue, cholinesterases activity (ChE) as an

  16. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  17. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  18. Data Center IT Equipment Energy Assessment Tools: Current State of Commercial Tools, Proposal for a Future Set of Assessment Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radhakrishnan, Ben D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); National Univ., San Diego, CA (United States). School of Engineering

    2012-06-30

    This research project, which was conducted during the Summer and Fall of 2011, investigated some commercially available assessment tools with a focus on IT equipment to see if such tools could round out the DC Pro tool suite. In this research, the assessment capabilities of the various tools were compiled to help make “non-biased” information available to the public. This research should not be considered to be exhaustive on all existing vendor tools although a number of vendors were contacted. Large IT equipment OEM’s like IBM and Dell provide their proprietary internal automated software which does not work on any other IT equipment. However, found two companies with products that showed promise in performing automated assessments for IT equipment from different OEM vendors. This report documents the research and provides a list of software products reviewed, contacts and websites, product details, discussions with specific companies, a set of recommendations, and next steps. As a result of this research, a simple 3-level approach to an IT assessment tool is proposed along with an example of an assessment using a simple IT equipment data collection tool (Level 1, spreadsheet). The tool has been reviewed with the Green Grid and LBNL staff. The initial feedback has been positive although further refinement to the tool will be necessary. Proposed next steps include a field trial of at least two vendors’ software in two different data centers with an objective to prove the concept, ascertain the extent of energy and computational assessment, ease of installation and opportunities for continuous improvement. Based on the discussions, field trials (or case studies) are proposed with two vendors – JouleX (expected to be completed in 2012) and Sentilla.

  19. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  20. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  1. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  2. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  3. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  4. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  5. Emerging methods and tools for environmental risk assessment, decision-making, and policy for nanomaterials: summary of NATO Advanced Research Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linkov, I; Steevens, J; Adlakha-Hutcheon, G

    2009-01-01

    and the environment. A unique feature of this workshop was its interdisciplinary nature and focus on the practical needs of policy decision makers. Workshop presentations and discussion panels were structured along four main themes: technology and benefits, human health risk, environmental risk, and policy......Nanomaterials and their associated technologies hold promising opportunities for the development of new materials and applications in a wide variety of disciplines, including medicine, environmental remediation, waste treatment, and energy conservation. However, current information regarding...... the environmental effects and health risks associated with nanomaterials is limited and sometimes contradictory. This article summarizes the conclusions of a 2008 NATO workshop designed to evaluate the wide-scale implications (e.g., benefits, risks, and costs) of the use of nanomaterials on human health...

  6. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  7. Emerging methods and tools for environmental risk assessment, decision-making, and policy for nanomaterials: summary of NATO Advanced Research Workshop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, Igor; Steevens, Jeffery; Adlakha-Hutcheon, Gitanjali; Bennett, Erin; Chappell, Mark; Colvin, Vicki; Davis, J. Michael; Davis, Thomas; Elder, Alison; Foss Hansen, Steffen; Hakkinen, Pertti Bert; Hussain, Saber M.; Karkan, Delara; Korenstein, Rafi; Lynch, Iseult; Metcalfe, Chris

    2009-01-01

    Nanomaterials and their associated technologies hold promising opportunities for the development of new materials and applications in a wide variety of disciplines, including medicine, environmental remediation, waste treatment, and energy conservation. However, current information regarding the environmental effects and health risks associated with nanomaterials is limited and sometimes contradictory. This article summarizes the conclusions of a 2008 NATO workshop designed to evaluate the wide-scale implications (e.g., benefits, risks, and costs) of the use of nanomaterials on human health and the environment. A unique feature of this workshop was its interdisciplinary nature and focus on the practical needs of policy decision makers. Workshop presentations and discussion panels were structured along four main themes: technology and benefits, human health risk, environmental risk, and policy implications. Four corresponding working groups (WGs) were formed to develop detailed summaries of the state-of-the-science in their respective areas and to discuss emerging gaps and research needs. The WGs identified gaps between the rapid advances in the types and applications of nanomaterials and the slower pace of human health and environmental risk science, along with strategies to reduce the uncertainties associated with calculating these risks.

  8. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  9. Systemic Assessment as a new tool for assessing students learning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Systemic Assessment [SA] has been shown to be highly effective new tool in raising the level of students academic achievements, improve their ability to learn by enhancing the process of teaching and learning, and converts students from surface to deep learning. It also allow teacher to monitor students learning ...

  10. Risk Jyouhou Navi (risk information navigator). Web tool for fostering of risk literacy. Set of data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitsui, Seiichiro

    2003-06-01

    In addition to the conventional public understanding activities, Risk communication study team of Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institutes (JNC) Tokai Works has started practical studies to promote risk communication with its local communities. Since its establishment in 2001, Risk communication study team has conducted analyses of already available results of public attitude surveys, case studies of domestic and overseas risk communication activities, and development of risk communication tools. A web tool for fostering of risk literacy 'Risk Jyouhou Navi (risk information navigator in English)', was developed as a web content for the official home page of Techno Kouryuu Kan Ricotti (Techno Community Square Ricotti in English)'. The objectives of this content are to provide risk information for public and to provide an electronic platform for promoting risk communication with the local community. To develop 'Risk Jyouhou Navi', the following concepts were considered. 1) To create public interest in risks in daily lives and in global risks. 2) To provide risk knowledge and information. 3) To support risk communication activities in Techno community square ricotti. (author)

  11. RISK IDENTIFICATION TOOLS – POLISH MSMES COMPANIES PRACTICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iwona Gorzeń-Mitka

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to present risk identification tools in Polish micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs. Risk identification is a key element of the risk management process in companies. Correctly fitting risk identification tools affect the accuracy of management decisions. The result of research is to identify the leading risk identification tools used by MSMEs. The study was conducted in 2010-2012 using a mixed survey-monographic method and questionnaires. The qualitative data were obtained during the study.

  12. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  13. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  14. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  15. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  16. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  17. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  18. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  19. Assessment of Urban Pluvial Flood Risk and Efficiency of Adaptation Options Through Simulations – A New Generation of Urban Planning Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Niña Donna Farpale

    2017-01-01

    the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate......-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood......We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides...

  20. Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: Are We There Yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge

    2015-01-01

    Research on risk assessment and risk management in offenders with intellectual disabilities (OIDs), although far behind compared to the mainstream offender literature, is now expanding. The current review provides an overview of the predictive value of risk assessment and treatment outcome monitoring tools developed for both mainstream forensic…

  1. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  2. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  3. Impact assessment as a design tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyhne, Ivar

    Research and development (R&D) programmes constitute a pivotal arena for shaping technologies of the future. In order to make qualified decisions, R&D programmes ought to be subject to impact assessment (IA). It seems, however, that only a few countries have developed a systematic practice. One r...... reason for the limited practice might be that IA of R&D policy is said to be particularly difficult. This paper reports on experiences from a voluntary IA application in Danish with point of departure in the question: How does IA work as a design tool in terms of R&D programmes?...

  4. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  5. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  6. Risk Assessments by Female Victims of Intimate Partner Violence: Predictors of Risk Perceptions and Comparison to an Actuarial Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor-Smith, Jennifer K.; Henning, Kris; Moore, Stephanie; Holdford, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Recent studies support the validity of both structured risk assessment tools and victim perceptions as predictors of risk for repeat intimate partner violence (IPV). Combining structured risk assessments and victim risk assessments leads to better predictions of repeat violence than either alone, suggesting that the two forms of assessment provide…

  7. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  8. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  9. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N., E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Andritsos, Nikolaos, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Psomas, Antonios, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr; Paramythiotis, Spyridon, E-mail: pskan@aua.gr [Laboratory of Food Quality Control and Hygiene, Department of Food Science and Technology, Agricultural University of Athens, Iera Odos 75, 118 55, Athens (Greece)

    2015-01-22

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total ‘failure’ that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user

  10. New risk metrics and mathematical tools for risk analysis: Current and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skandamis, Panagiotis N.; Andritsos, Nikolaos; Psomas, Antonios; Paramythiotis, Spyridon

    2015-01-01

    The current status of the food safety supply world wide, has led Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Health Organization (WHO) to establishing Risk Analysis as the single framework for building food safety control programs. A series of guidelines and reports that detail out the various steps in Risk Analysis, namely Risk Management, Risk Assessment and Risk Communication is available. The Risk Analysis approach enables integration between operational food management systems, such as Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points, public health and governmental decisions. To do that, a series of new Risk Metrics has been established as follows: i) the Appropriate Level of Protection (ALOP), which indicates the maximum numbers of illnesses in a population per annum, defined by quantitative risk assessments, and used to establish; ii) Food Safety Objective (FSO), which sets the maximum frequency and/or concentration of a hazard in a food at the time of consumption that provides or contributes to the ALOP. Given that ALOP is rather a metric of the public health tolerable burden (it addresses the total `failure' that may be handled at a national level), it is difficult to be interpreted into control measures applied at the manufacturing level. Thus, a series of specific objectives and criteria for performance of individual processes and products have been established, all of them assisting in the achievement of FSO and hence, ALOP. In order to achieve FSO, tools quantifying the effect of processes and intrinsic properties of foods on survival and growth of pathogens are essential. In this context, predictive microbiology and risk assessment have offered an important assistance to Food Safety Management. Predictive modelling is the basis of exposure assessment and the development of stochastic and kinetic models, which are also available in the form of Web-based applications, e.g., COMBASE and Microbial Responses Viewer), or introduced into user-friendly softwares

  11. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  12. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  13. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  14. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  15. Develop risk-based procurement management tools for SMEs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Staal, Anne; Hagelaar, Geoffrey; Walhof, Gert; Holman, Richard

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides guidance for developing risk-based management tools to improve the procurement (purchasing) performance of SMEs. Extant academic literature only offers little support on developing such tools and does not consider the wide variety of SMEs. The paper defines a procurement tool for

  16. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  17. Environmental risk assessment: an Australian perspective. Supervising Scientist Report 102

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beer, T.; Ziolkowski, F.

    1995-01-01

    Environmental risk assessment can be used as a strategic tool to set environmental priorities and as a tactical tool to set environmental standards. This report is designed to inform Australian environmental managers about the techniques and applications of environmental risk assessment and to familiarize risk analysts with some of the issues that are of concern to environmental managers. The use of risk assessment is illustrated by applying its techniques to five case studies which include: risk from chemicals and from contaminated sites; risk to people and to the natural environment from development, such as uranium mining; climate change; and risk associated with political decision-making. Then, by considering Australian and overseas practice, a generic framework is presented within which environmental risk assessment in Australia can be undertaken, and possible methods of implementation are discussed. refs., 38 figs

  18. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, W.C.

    1984-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

  19. Habitat Modeling and Preferences of Marine Mammals as a Function of Oceanographic Characteristics; Development of Predictive Tools for Assessing the Risks and the Impacts Due to Sound Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-30

    of vulnerable species, climate induced changes etc.). The environmental indicators need to be aggregated into impact indexes that will constitute...given to multicriteria analysis approaches to the environmental impact considerations. A spatial planning framework would have the potential to guide the...D. Vicinanza. 2011b. Strategic Environmental Assessment to evaluate WEC projects in the perspective of the environmental cost-benefit analysis

  20. Rapid quantification of viable Campylobacter on chicken carcasses by real-time PCR and propidium monoazide as a tool for quantitative risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Josefsen, Mathilde Hartmann; Löfström, Charlotta; Hansen, Tina Beck

    2010-01-01

    by assessing the contribution to variability from individual chicken carcass rinse matrices, species of Campylobacter, and the efficiency of DNA extraction with differing cell inputs. The method was compared with culture-based enumeration on 50 naturally infected chickens. The cell contents correlated with Ct...

  1. Systematic review of fall risk screening tools for older patients in acute hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matarese, Maria; Ivziku, Dhurata; Bartolozzi, Francesco; Piredda, Michela; De Marinis, Maria Grazia

    2015-06-01

    To determine the most accurate fall risk screening tools for predicting falls among patients aged 65 years or older admitted to acute care hospitals. Falls represent a serious problem in older inpatients due to the potential physical, social, psychological and economic consequences. Older inpatients present with risk factors associated with age-related physiological and psychological changes as well as multiple morbidities. Thus, fall risk screening tools for older adults should include these specific risk factors. There are no published recommendations addressing what tools are appropriate for older hospitalized adults. Systematic review. MEDLINE, CINAHL and Cochrane electronic databases were searched between January 1981-April 2013. Only prospective validation studies reporting sensitivity and specificity values were included. Recommendations of the Cochrane Handbook of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Reviews have been followed. Three fall risk assessment tools were evaluated in seven articles. Due to the limited number of studies, meta-analysis was carried out only for the STRATIFY and Hendrich Fall Risk Model II. In the combined analysis, the Hendrich Fall Risk Model II demonstrated higher sensitivity than STRATIFY, while the STRATIFY showed higher specificity. In both tools, the Youden index showed low prognostic accuracy. The identified tools do not demonstrate predictive values as high as needed for identifying older inpatients at risk for falls. For this reason, no tool can be recommended for fall detection. More research is needed to evaluate fall risk screening tools for older inpatients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  3. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  4. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  5. Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrolorenzo, Giuseppe; Palladino, Danilo M; Pappalardo, Lucia; Rossano, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy) poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents) ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event) and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEIextreme event) would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity), we suggest that appropriate planning measures should face at least the VEI 5 reference scenario (at least 2 occurrences documented in the last 10 ka).

  6. OPERATIONAL RISK IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS: TAXONOMY AND ASSESSMENT METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinoiu Ana Maria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at presenting the classifications and the assessment methods for operational risk according to international regulations (ie. Basel 2, in the context of its importance as a managerial tool for international business. Considering the growin

  7. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  8. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  9. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  10. Visualization tools for insurance risk processes

    OpenAIRE

    Krzysztof Burnecki; Rafal Weron

    2006-01-01

    This chapter develops on risk processes which, perhaps, are most suitable for computer visualization of all insurance objects. At the same time, risk processes are basic instruments for any non-life actuary – they are vital for calculating the amount of loss that an insurance company may incur.

  11. Clinical assessment tools identify functional deficits in fragility fracture patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ames TD

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Tyler D Ames,1 Corinne E Wee,1 Khoi M Le,1 Tiffany L Wang,1 Julie Y Bishop,2 Laura S Phieffer,2 Carmen E Quatman2 1The Ohio State University College of Medicine, 2Department of Orthopaedics, The Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, Columbus, OH, USA Purpose: To identify inexpensive, noninvasive, portable, clinical assessment tools that can be used to assess functional performance measures that may put older patients at risk for falls such as balance, handgrip strength, and lumbopelvic control.Patients and methods: Twenty fragility fracture patients and 21 healthy control subjects were evaluated using clinical assessment tools (Nintendo Wii Balance Board [WBB], a handheld dynamometer, and an application for the Apple iPod Touch, the Level Belt that measure functional performance during activity of daily living tasks. The main outcome measurements were balance (WBB, handgrip strength (handheld dynamometer, and lumbopelvic control (iPod Touch Level Belt, which were compared between fragility fracture patients and healthy controls.Results: Fragility fracture patients had lower scores on the vertical component of the WBB Torso Twist task (P=0.042 and greater medial–lateral lumbopelvic sway during a 40 m walk (P=0.026 when compared to healthy controls. Unexpectedly, the fracture patients had significantly higher scores on the left leg (P=0.020 and total components (P=0.010 of the WBB Single Leg Stand task as well as less faults during the left Single Leg Stand task (P=0.003.Conclusion: The clinical assessment tools utilized in this study are relatively inexpensive and portable tools of performance measures capable of detecting differences in postural sway between fragility fracture patients and controls. Keywords: fall risk, geriatric fracture, Nintendo Wii Balance Board, Level Belt, fragility fracture

  12. QUAST: quality assessment tool for genome assemblies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurevich, Alexey; Saveliev, Vladislav; Vyahhi, Nikolay; Tesler, Glenn

    2013-04-15

    Limitations of genome sequencing techniques have led to dozens of assembly algorithms, none of which is perfect. A number of methods for comparing assemblers have been developed, but none is yet a recognized benchmark. Further, most existing methods for comparing assemblies are only applicable to new assemblies of finished genomes; the problem of evaluating assemblies of previously unsequenced species has not been adequately considered. Here, we present QUAST-a quality assessment tool for evaluating and comparing genome assemblies. This tool improves on leading assembly comparison software with new ideas and quality metrics. QUAST can evaluate assemblies both with a reference genome, as well as without a reference. QUAST produces many reports, summary tables and plots to help scientists in their research and in their publications. In this study, we used QUAST to compare several genome assemblers on three datasets. QUAST tables and plots for all of them are available in the Supplementary Material, and interactive versions of these reports are on the QUAST website. http://bioinf.spbau.ru/quast . Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  13. Probabilistic-numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for "full-scale" risk management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Mastrolorenzo

    Full Text Available The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy poses very high risk to the highly urbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activity producing pyroclastic currents (hereon PCs; acronym for Pyroclastic Currents ranging in scale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilistic numerical simulation approaches to produce PC hazard maps, based on a comprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps are incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS and provide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI scenarios from different source vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For each VEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PCs (i.e., the probability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PCs in case of a PC-forming explosive event and related dynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PCs from VEI<4 events would be confined within the Campi Flegrei caldera, PC propagation being impeded by the northern and eastern caldera walls. Conversely, PCs from VEI 4-5 events could invade a wide area beyond the northern caldera rim, as well as part of the Naples metropolitan area to the east. A major controlling factor of PC dispersal is represented by the location of the vent area. PCs from the potentially largest eruption scenarios (analogous to the ~15 ka, VEI 6 Neapolitan Yellow Tuff or even the ~39 ka, VEI 7 Campanian Ignimbrite extreme event would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and the city of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity at Campi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanic hazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the present level of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and location (essentially based on statistical analysis of previous activity, we suggest that appropriate planning measures should

  14. Conceptual assessment tool for advanced undergraduate electrodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baily, Charles; Ryan, Qing X.; Astolfi, Cecilia; Pollock, Steven J.

    2017-12-01

    As part of ongoing investigations into student learning in advanced undergraduate courses, we have developed a conceptual assessment tool for upper-division electrodynamics (E&M II): the Colorado UppeR-division ElectrodyNamics Test (CURrENT). This is a free response, postinstruction diagnostic with 6 multipart questions, an optional 3-question preinstruction test, and accompanying grading rubrics. The instrument's development was guided by faculty-consensus learning goals and research into common student difficulties. It can be used to gauge the effectiveness of transformed pedagogy, and to gain insights into student thinking in the covered topic areas. We present baseline data representing 500 students across 9 institutions, along with validity, reliability, and discrimination measures of the instrument and scoring rubric.

  15. Conceptual assessment tool for advanced undergraduate electrodynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Baily

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available As part of ongoing investigations into student learning in advanced undergraduate courses, we have developed a conceptual assessment tool for upper-division electrodynamics (E&M II: the Colorado UppeR-division ElectrodyNamics Test (CURrENT. This is a free response, postinstruction diagnostic with 6 multipart questions, an optional 3-question preinstruction test, and accompanying grading rubrics. The instrument’s development was guided by faculty-consensus learning goals and research into common student difficulties. It can be used to gauge the effectiveness of transformed pedagogy, and to gain insights into student thinking in the covered topic areas. We present baseline data representing 500 students across 9 institutions, along with validity, reliability, and discrimination measures of the instrument and scoring rubric.

  16. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  17. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  18. Climate risk screening tools and their application: A guide to the guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Traerup, S.; Olhoff, A.

    2011-07-01

    Climate risk screening is an integral part of efforts to ascertain current and future vulnerabilities and risks related to climate change. It is a prerequisite for identifying and designing adaptation measures, and an important element in the process of integrating, or mainstreaming, climate change adaptation into development project, planning and policy processes. There is an increasing demand and attention among national stakeholders in developing countries to take into account potential implications of climate variability and change for planning and prioritizing of development strategies and activities. Subsequently, there is a need for user friendly guidance on climate risk screening tools and their potentials for application that targets developing country stakeholders. This need is amplified by the sheer volume of climate change mainstreaming guidance documents and risk screening and assessment tools available and currently under development. Against this background, this paper sets out to provide potential users in developing countries, including project and programme developers and managers, with an informational entry point to climate risk screening tools. The emphasis in this report is on providing: 1) An overview of available climate risk screening and assessment tools along with indications of the tools available and relevant for specific purposes and contexts (Section 3). 2) Examples of application of climate risk screening and assessment tools along with links to further information (Section 4). Before turning to the respective sections on available climate risk screening tools and examples of their application, a delimitation of the tools included in this paper is included in Section 2. This section also provides a brief overview of how climate screening and related tools fit into decision making steps at various planning and decision making levels in conjunction with an outline of overall considerations to make when choosing a tool. The paper is

  19. Monitoring of the risk of farmland abandonment as an efficient tool to assess the environmental and socio-economic impact of the Common Agriculture Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milenov, Pavel; Vassilev, Vassil; Vassileva, Anna; Radkov, Radko; Samoungi, Vessela; Dimitrov, Zlatomir; Vichev, Nikola

    2014-10-01

    Farmland abandonment (FLA) could be defined as the cessation of agricultural activities on a given surface of land (Pointereau et al., 2008). FLA, often associated with social and economic problems in rural areas, has significant environmental consequences. During the 1990s, millions of hectares of farmland in the new EU Member States, from Central and Eastern Europe, were abandoned as a result of the transition process from centralized and planned to market economy. The policy tools adopted gradually within the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union (EU CAP), as well as the EU environmental and structural policies, aimed to prevent further expansion of this phenomenon and to facilitate the revival of the agriculture land, being abandoned (ComReg 1122/2009). The Agri-Environment (AGRI-ENV) component of the Core Information Service (CIS), developed within the scope of the FP7-funded project "geoland2" were designed to support the agricultural user community at pan-European and national levels by contributing to the improvement of more accurate and timely monitoring of the status of agricultural land use in Europe and its change. The purpose of the product 'Farmland abandonment', as part of the AGRI-ENV package, is to detect potentially abandoned agriculture land, based on multi-annual SPOT data with several acquisitions per year. It provides essential independent information on the status of the agricultural land as recorded in the Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS), which is one of the core instruments of the implementation of CAP. The production line is based on object-based image analysis and benefits from the extensive availability of Biophysical parameters derived from the satellite data (geoland2). The method detects/tracks those land (or so-called reference) parcels in the LPIS, holding significant amount of land agriculture found as potentially abandoned. Reference parcels with such change are flagged and reported, enabling the National

  20. Challenge Course Facilitator Technical Skills Assessment Tool Mark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagstaff, William Quinn

    2007-01-01

    A study was conducted to develop a technical skills assessment tool for the training and development of challenge course facilitators. Researchers accessed two professional on-line listserves to collect a sample size of twenty-seven currently used technical skills assessment tools. The assessment tools were critically analysed by three independent…

  1. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  2. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  3. International physical protection self-assessment tool for chemical facilities.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tewell, Craig R.; Burdick, Brent A.; Stiles, Linda L.; Lindgren, Eric Richard

    2010-09-01

    This report is the final report for Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Project No.130746, International Physical Protection Self-Assessment Tool for Chemical Facilities. The goal of the project was to develop an exportable, low-cost, computer-based risk assessment tool for small to medium size chemical facilities. The tool would assist facilities in improving their physical protection posture, while protecting their proprietary information. In FY2009, the project team proposed a comprehensive evaluation of safety and security regulations in the target geographical area, Southeast Asia. This approach was later modified and the team worked instead on developing a methodology for identifying potential targets at chemical facilities. Milestones proposed for FY2010 included characterizing the international/regional regulatory framework, finalizing the target identification and consequence analysis methodology, and developing, reviewing, and piloting the software tool. The project team accomplished the initial goal of developing potential target categories for chemical facilities; however, the additional milestones proposed for FY2010 were not pursued and the LDRD funding therefore was redirected.

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  5. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  6. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  7. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  8. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  9. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  10. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  11. BASINS and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This draft report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools. The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments of the potential future effects of climate change on water resources. This report presents a series of short, illustrative case studies using the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools.

  12. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  13. Updating risk prediction tools: a case study in prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ankerst, Donna P; Koniarski, Tim; Liang, Yuanyuan; Leach, Robin J; Feng, Ziding; Sanda, Martin G; Partin, Alan W; Chan, Daniel W; Kagan, Jacob; Sokoll, Lori; Wei, John T; Thompson, Ian M

    2012-01-01

    Online risk prediction tools for common cancers are now easily accessible and widely used by patients and doctors for informed decision-making concerning screening and diagnosis. A practical problem is as cancer research moves forward and new biomarkers and risk factors are discovered, there is a need to update the risk algorithms to include them. Typically, the new markers and risk factors cannot be retrospectively measured on the same study participants used to develop the original prediction tool, necessitating the merging of a separate study of different participants, which may be much smaller in sample size and of a different design. Validation of the updated tool on a third independent data set is warranted before the updated tool can go online. This article reports on the application of Bayes rule for updating risk prediction tools to include a set of biomarkers measured in an external study to the original study used to develop the risk prediction tool. The procedure is illustrated in the context of updating the online Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator to incorporate the new markers %freePSA and [-2]proPSA measured on an external case-control study performed in Texas, U.S.. Recent state-of-the art methods in validation of risk prediction tools and evaluation of the improvement of updated to original tools are implemented using an external validation set provided by the U.S. Early Detection Research Network. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  14. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  15. A novel early risk assessment tool for detecting clinical outcomes in patients with heat-related illness (J-ERATO score: Development and validation in independent cohorts in Japan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kei Hayashida

    Full Text Available We sought to develop a novel risk assessment tool to predict the clinical outcomes after heat-related illness.Prospective, multicenter observational study. Patients who transferred to emergency hospitals in Japan with heat-related illness were registered. The sample was divided into two parts: 60% to construct the score and 40% to validate it. A binary logistic regression model was used to predict hospital admission as a primary outcome. The resulting model was transformed into a scoring system.A total of 3,001 eligible patients were analyzed. There was no difference in variables between development and validation cohorts. Based on the result of a logistic regression model in the development phase (n = 1,805, the J-ERATO score was defined as the sum of the six binary components in the prehospital setting (respiratory rate≥22 /min, Glasgow coma scale0.2 by Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The observed proportion of hospital admission increased with increasing J-ERATO score (score = 0, 5.0%; score = 1, 15.0%; score = 2, 24.6%; score = 3, 38.6%; score = 4, 68.0%; score = 5, 85.2%; score = 6, 96.4%. Multivariate analyses showed that the J-ERATO score was an independent positive predictor of hospital admission (adjusted OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.06-2.87; P<0.001, intensive care unit (ICU admission (3.73; 2.95-4.72; P<0.001 and in-hospital mortality (1.65; 1.18-2.32; P = 0.004.The J-ERATO score is simply assessed and can facilitate the identification of patients with higher risk of heat-related hospitalization. This scoring system is also significantly associated with the higher likelihood of ICU admission and in-hospital mortality after heat-related hospitalization.

  16. Probabilistic soil erosion modeling using the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMIT) after wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    P. R. Robichaud; W. J. Elliot; J. W. Wagenbrenner

    2011-01-01

    The decision of whether or not to apply post-fire hillslope erosion mitigation treatments, and if so, where these treatments are most needed, is a multi-step process. Land managers must assess the risk of damaging runoff and sediment delivery events occurring on the unrecovered burned hillslope. We developed the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) to address this need...

  17. Overview and Demonstration of USEPA’s Risk-Informed Materials Management (RIMM) Tool System

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk-Informed Materials Management (RIMM) Tool System is a data gathering and analysis platform for conducting material disposal and beneficial use assessments. Users can evaluate risks to human and ecological receptors associated with exposures to organic and inorganic chemi...

  18. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  19. Delamination Assessment Tool for Spacecraft Composite Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portela, Pedro; Preller, Fabian; Wittke,