WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment survey

  1. Assessing risk of draft survey by AHP method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guangcheng; Zhao, Kuimin; Zuo, Zhaoying; Liu, Gang; Jian, Binguo; Lin, Yan; Fan, Yukun; Wang, Fei

    2018-04-01

    The paper assesses the risks of vessel floating in the seawater for draft survey by using the analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, the paper established draft survey risk index from the view of draft reading, ballast water, fresh water, and calculation process and so on. Then the paper proposes the method to deal with risk assessment using one concrete sample.

  2. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  3. A survey of ecological risk assessment at DOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnthouse, L.W.; Bascietto, J.; Joseph, T.; Bilyard, G.

    1992-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Risk-Based Standards Working Group is studying standard-setting and remedial action based on realistic estimates of human health and ecological risks. Federal and state regulations require DOE to assess ecological risks due to present and past operation of DOE facilities and ecological damage caused by remedial actions. Unfortunately, little technical guidance has been provided by regulatory agencies about how these assessments should be performed or what constitutes an adequate assessment. Active ecological research, environmental characterization, and ecological risk assessment programs are already underway at many locations. Some of these programs were established more than 30 years ago. Because of the strength of its existing programs and the depth of expertise available within the DOE complex, the agency is in a position to lead in developing ecological risk assessment procedures that are fully consistent with the general principles defined by EPA and that will ensure environmentally sound and cost-effective restoration of its sites. As a prelude to guidance development, the working group conducted a survey of ecological risk assessment activities at a subset of major DOE facilities. The survey was intended to (1) identify approaches now being used in ecological risk assessments performed by DOE staff and contractors at each site, (2) record successes and failures of these approaches, (3) identify new technical developments with potential for general application to many DOE facilities, and (4) identify major data needs, data resources, and methodological deficiencies

  4. Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

    1982-10-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included

  5. Venous Thromboembolism – Risk Assessment Tool and Thromboprophylaxis Policy: A National Survey

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Khan, MI

    2017-01-01

    Venous Thromboembolic (VTE) events in hospitalised patients are associated with significant mortality and morbidity and a major economic burden on the health service. It is well established in the literature that active implementation of a mandatory risk assessment tool and thromboprophylaxis policy reduces the incidence of hospital associated thrombosis (HAT). This study examines the utilization of a VTE risk assessment tool and thromboprophylaxis (TP) policy in Irish hospitals that manage acute admissions. A national survey was distributed to forty acute hospitals throughout Ireland. The response rate was 78% (31\\/40). The results showed that only 26% (n=8\\/31) of acute hospitals in Ireland have a local implemented TP policy. Six (75%) of these eight had a risk assessment tool in conjunction with the TP policy. All respondents who did not report to have a TP policy and risk assessment tool agreed that they should implement VTE prevention policy at their hospital. Based on the data from this survey and evidence from the effectiveness of the VTE prevention programme introduced in the United Kingdom, there is a need for a national risk assessment and thromboprophylaxis policy in Ireland. This change in practice would have the potential to prevent or reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with hospital acquired thrombosis

  6. Assessing Violence Risk and Psychopathy in Juvenile and Adult Offenders: A Survey of Clinical Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viljoen, Jodi L.; McLachlan, Kaitlyn; Vincent, Gina M.

    2010-01-01

    This study surveyed 199 forensic clinicians about the practices that they use in assessing violence risk in juvenile and adult offenders. Results indicated that the use of risk assessment and psychopathy tools was common. Although clinicians reported more routine use of psychopathy measures in adult risk assessments compared with juvenile risks…

  7. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1994-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

  8. Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature. [Once-through Cycle and Plutonium Recycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

    1982-10-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included.

  9. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  10. Clinicians' use of breast cancer risk assessment tools according to their perceived importance of breast cancer risk factors: an international survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brédart, Anne; Kop, Jean-Luc; Antoniou, Antonis C; Cunningham, Alex P; De Pauw, Antoine; Tischkowitz, Marc; Ehrencrona, Hans; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Dolbeault, Sylvie; Rhiem, Kerstin; Easton, Douglas F; Devilee, Peter; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Schmutlzer, Rita

    2018-03-05

    The BOADICEA breast cancer (BC) risk assessment model and its associated Web Application v3 (BWA) tool are being extended to incorporate additional genetic and non-genetic BC risk factors. From an online survey through the BOADICEA website and UK, Dutch, French and Swedish national genetic societies, we explored the relationships between the usage frequencies of the BWA and six other common BC risk assessment tools and respondents' perceived importance of BC risk factors. Respondents (N = 443) varied in age, country and clinical seniority but comprised mainly genetics health professionals (82%) and BWA users (93%). Oncology professionals perceived reproductive, hormonal (exogenous) and lifestyle BC risk factors as more important in BC risk assessment compared to genetics professionals (p values personal BC history as BC risk factors. BWA use was positively related to the weight given to hormonal BC risk factors. The importance attributed to lifestyle and BMI BC risk factors was not associated with the use of BWA or any of the other tools. Next version of the BWA encompassing additional BC risk factors will facilitate more comprehensive BC risk assessment in genetics and oncology practice.

  11. Venous thromboembolism in medical outpatients - a cross-sectional survey of risk assessment and prophylaxis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawall, Holger; Matthiessen, Andreas; Hohmann, Volker; Bramlage, Peter; Haas, Sylvia; Schellong, Sebastian

    2011-01-01

    The degree of thromboprophylaxis in medical outpatients is low despite a substantial risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE). This may be attributable to difficulties in assessing risk. Assessment tools like the Haas' scorecard aid in determining the need for thromboprophylaxis. We aimed at evaluating how the use of this tool may aid physicians in appropriately using anticoagulants. This was an epidemiological, cross-sectional survey of acute medically ill patients with limited mobility treated by general practitioners and internists. Risk assessment for VTE by the treating physician was compared to calculated risk. Of 8,123 patients evaluated between August 2006 and April 2008, 7,271 fulfilled the in- and exclusion criteria. Mean age was 69.4 ± 13.6 years, and 45.2% were male. Of these 82.8% were high risk based on their acute medical condition, 37.9% based on their underlying chronic condition. Immobilisation, heart failure, pneumonia, age, obesity, and major varicosis were the most frequently encountered risk factors. The agreement between the Haas' scorecard and physician indicated risk was high. At least 94.1% of patients with high risk received adequate anticoagulation mostly as low molecular weight heparins for a mean duration of 15.1 ± 30.5 days. There is a substantial risk for VTE in medical outpatients. Using a simple structured scorecard resulted in an overall appropriate risk assessment and high degree of anticoagulation. The scorecard may provide a tool to improve the overall awareness for VTE risk in medical outpatients, substantially improving the degree of prophylaxis in a patient population with largely underestimated risk.

  12. What do experts stakeholders think about chemical risks and uncertainties. An Internet survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Assmuth, T.; Lyytimaeki, J.; Hilden, M.; Lindholm, M.; Munier, B.

    2007-07-01

    This report presents results from a web-based explorative survey on integrated risk assessment. The survey was conducted in the EU-funded project NoMiracle (Novel Methods for Risk Assessment of Cumulative Stressors in Europe) which develops methods for assessing cumulative risks from combined exposures to multiple stressors. The objectives of the survey were to give a general picture of perceptions and views among experts and stakeholders concerning risks, risk assessment and risk management. The survey focused on chemicals with an emphasis on information related to complex risks and uncertainties in a management context. The methodology of the survey combined traditional multiple choice questions and a novel approach that charted the importance of different types of information in two-dimensional graphs describing simultaneously use in regulatory procedures and public discussion. Another part was linked to new methods of presenting risks and explored the ranking of separate and cumulative risks in map grids. The survey was e-mailed to 952 recipients representing researchers, national and EU level administrators, enterprises, NGOs and international organizations, and most EU member states and some other countries. The response rate (26 %) can be considered acceptable but limits the possibilities to make quantitative claims concerning the views held by different groups although it gives an overview of the types of views one encounter among experts. A key finding was the pronounced variability of concepts and views regarding risks and uncertainties, and regarding information and knowledge about these. Opinions on risks and risk assessment, particularly on integrated risk assessment, on related principles, and on the role of experts are genuinely variable. They cannot be reduced to any simple model, and cannot (and need not) be dispelled in a forced manner. The observations should be taken into account in the development and application of novel methods for risk

  13. Contribution to Risk Analysis of a Standard Brewery: Application of a Hygiene Assessment System Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Raposo, António; Salazar, Jairo; Pérez, Esteban; Sanjuán, Esther; Carrascosa, Conrado; Saavedra, Pedro; Millán, Rafael

    2013-01-01

    "Beer is a food product with a high consumption in Gran Canaria and the brewery industry is also present in this island. In order to carry out this study, it was designed a survey to assist in the assessment of risks from the facilities and infrastructures of the brewery, the raw materials used in the beer production and the HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) plan. An initial assessment of various aspects of the industry has been conducted at the beginning of hygienic-sani...

  14. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  15. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  16. APPLICATION OF LASER SCANNING SURVEYING TO ROCK SLOPES RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Corsetti

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The methods for understanding rock instability mechanisms and for evaluating potential destructive scenarios are of great importance in risk assessment analysis dedicated to the establishment of appropriate prevention and mitigation actions. When the portion of the unstable rock mass is very large, effective actions to counteract the risks are complex and expensive. In these conditions, an optimal risk management cannot ignore procedures able to faster and accurately acquire i geometrical data for modeling the geometry of the rock walls and implementing reliable forecasting models and ii monitoring data able to describe the magnitude and the direction of deformation processes. These data contributes to the prediction of the behavior of a landslide if the measurements are acquired frequently and reliable numerical models can be implemented. Innovative geomatic techniques, based on GPS, Terrestrial Laser Scanning Surveying (TLS, automated total station and satellite and ground SAR Interferometry, have been recently applied to define the geometry and monitoring the displacements of unstable slopes. Among these, TLS is mainly adopted to generate detailed 3D models useful to reconstruct rock wall geometry by contributing to the estimation of geo-mechanical parameters, that is orientation, persistence and apparent spacing of rock discontinuities. Two examples of applications of TLS technique to the analysis of a large front in a quarry and of a rock shoulder of a dam are presented.

  17. Radiological Risk Assessment and Survey of Radioactive Contamination for Foodstuffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, W.R.; Lee, C.W.; Choi, K.S.

    2007-11-01

    After the Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986, a radiological dose assessment and a survey of a radioactive contamination for foodstuffs have been investigated by many countries such as EU, Japan, USA. In the case of Japan which is similar to our country for the imported regions of foodstuffs, there were some instances of the excess for regulation on the maximum permitted levels of radioactive contamination among some imported foodstuffs. Concerns about the radioactive contamination of foodstuffs are increased because of the recently special situation (Nuclear test of North Korea). The purpose of this study is a radiological dose assessment and a survey of a radioactive contamination for foodstuffs in order to reduce the probability of intake of contaminated foodstuffs. Analytical results of the collected samples are below MDA. In this project, the model of radiological dose assessment via the food chain was also developed and radiological dose assessment was conducted based on surveys results of a radioactive contamination for foodstuffs in the Korean open markets since 2002. The results of radiological dose assessment are far below international reference level. It shows that public radiation exposure via food chain is well controlled within the international guide level. However, the radioactive contamination research of imported foodstuffs should be continuous considering the special situation(nuclear test of North Korea). These results are used to manage the radioactive contamination of the imported foodstuffs and also amend the regulation on the maximum permitted levels of radioactive contamination of foodstuffs

  18. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  19. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

  20. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  1. An approach to security risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  2. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  3. Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

    2018-01-01

    In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

  4. Assessment of health risks caused by air pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nilsson, Robert.

    1991-02-01

    This report is a support document to an other report from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 'Risk assessment - a research programme aimed at health risks from air pollution in the general environment', report 3890, 1991 and is a survey of the scientific 'state of the art' in the different parts of risk assessment. Furthermore certain proposals are made concerning the scientific content of the future research in this area. (au)

  5. Use of global coronary heart disease risk assessment in practice: a cross-sectional survey of a sample of U.S. physicians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shillinglaw Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global coronary heart disease (CHD risk assessment is recommended to guide primary preventive pharmacotherapy. However, little is known about physicians' understanding and use of global CHD risk assessment. Our objective was to examine US physicians' awareness, use, and attitudes regarding global CHD risk assessment in clinical practice, and how these vary by provider specialty. Methods Using a web-based survey of US family physicians, general internists, and cardiologists, we examined awareness of tools available to calculate CHD risk, method and use of CHD risk assessment, attitudes towards CHD risk assessment, and frequency of using CHD risk assessment to guide recommendations of aspirin, lipid-lowering and blood pressure (BP lowering therapies for primary prevention. Characteristics of physicians indicating they use CHD risk assessments were compared in unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Results A total of 952 physicians completed the questionnaire, with 92% reporting awareness of tools available to calculate CHD global risk. Among those aware of such tools, over 80% agreed that CHD risk calculation is useful, improves patient care, and leads to better decisions about recommending preventive therapies. However, only 41% use CHD risk assessment in practice. The most commonly reported barrier to CHD risk assessment is that it is too time consuming. Among respondents who calculate global CHD risk, 69% indicated they use it to guide lipid lowering therapy recommendations; 54% use it to guide aspirin therapy recommendations; and 48% use it to guide BP lowering therapy. Only 40% of respondents who use global CHD risk routinely tell patients their risk. Use of a personal digital assistant or smart phone was associated with reported use of CHD risk assessment (adjusted OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.17-2.12. Conclusions Reported awareness of tools to calculate global CHD risk appears high, but the majority of physicians in this sample do not

  6. Perceived risks of radioactive waste transport through Oregon: Results of a statewide survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacGregor, D.; Slovic, P.; Mason, R.G.; Detweiler, J.; Binney, S.E.; Dodd, B.

    1994-01-01

    Transportation of hazardous materials, and particularly radioactive wastes, on public highways has become an important risk management issue. The unfavorability of public attitudes regarding hazardous and nuclear waste signals the potential for strong public opposition to programs for transporting these materials. This paper presents the results of a survey conducted to assess public reactions to a long-term nuclear waste transport program planned to follow a route through a portion of rural Oregon. The survey assessed a number of key risk perception issues, including perceived health and safety risks of nuclear waste transport, relative risks of transport vs. storage at an existing site, trust in state officials, and satisfaction with life in communities along the transport route. The survey identified a number of attitudes and concerns that need to be understood and considered by those in charge of designing and implementing the waste-transportation program. 22 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs

  7. Trust, emotion, sex, politics, and science: surveying the risk-assessment battlefield.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, P

    1999-08-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept "risk" and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by worldviews, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach--one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase

  8. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slovic, Paul [Decision Research, Eugene, OR (United States)

    2001-07-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical

  9. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slovic, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase

  10. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Ajay; Hutter, Inge

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from broader cultural meaning systems to rationalize uncertainty. In this study, we identify some of the cultural heuristics used by migrant men in Goa, India to assess their risk of HIV infection from different sexual partners. Data derives from a series of in-depth interviews and a locally informed survey. Cultural heuristics identified include visual heuristics, heuristics of gender roles, vigilance and trust. The paper argues that, for more culturally informed HIV/AIDS behaviour change interventions, knowledge of cultural heuristics is essential.

  11. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  12. The Current Status of Graduate Training in Suicide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebling-Boccio, Dana E.; Jennings, Heather R.

    2013-01-01

    Directors and coordinators (n = 75) of graduate programs in school psychology approved by the National Association of School Psychologists (NASP) were surveyed regarding their training practices in suicide risk assessment. Respondents viewed the assessment of suicide risk as an important part of graduate instruction, and most believed that…

  13. Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

  14. Caries Risk Assessment in School Children Using Reduced Cariogram Model

    OpenAIRE

    Taqi, Muhammad; Razak, Ishak Abdul; Ab-Murat, Norintan

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To estimate the percentage of children with low, moderate and high caries risk; and to determine the predictors of caries risk amongst 11-12 year old Pakistani school children. Methods: Subjects’ caries risk was assessed using the Cariogram programme. The survey was done among school children in Bhakkar district of Punjab, Pakistan. Caries and plaque level were assessed using the DMFT and Sillnes and Loe indices respectively, while diet content and frequency were assessed using a t...

  15. Development and evaluation of the McKnight Risk Factor Survey for assessing potential risk and protective factors for disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shisslak, C M; Renger, R; Sharpe, T; Crago, M; McKnight, K M; Gray, N; Bryson, S; Estes, L S; Parnaby, O G; Killen, J; Taylor, C B

    1999-03-01

    To describe the development, test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and convergent validity of the McKnight Risk Factor Survey-III (MRFS-III). The MRFS-III was designed to assess a number of potential risk and protective factors for the development of disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls. Several versions of the MRFS were pilot tested before the MRFS-III was administered to a sample of 651 4th through 12th- grade girls to establish its psychometric properties. Most of the test-retest reliability coefficients of individual items on the MRFS-III were r > .40. Alpha coefficients for each risk and protective factor domain on the MRFS-III were also computed. The majority of these coefficients were r > .60. High convergent validity coefficients were obtained for specific items on the MRFS-III and measures of self-esteem (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale) and weight concerns (Weight Concerns Scale). The test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and convergent validity of the MRFS-III suggest that it is a useful new instrument to assess potential risk and protective factors for the development of disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls.

  16. Ensuring the quality of occupational safety risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Abel; Ribeiro, Rita A; Nunes, Isabel L

    2013-03-01

    In work environments, the main aim of occupational safety risk assessment (OSRA) is to improve the safety level of an installation or site by either preventing accidents and injuries or minimizing their consequences. To this end, it is of paramount importance to identify all sources of hazards and assess their potential to cause problems in the respective context. If the OSRA process is inadequate and/or not applied effectively, it results in an ineffective safety prevention program and inefficient use of resources. An appropriate OSRA is an essential component of the occupational safety risk management process in industries. In this article, we performed a survey to elicit the relative importance for identified OSRA tasks to enable an in-depth evaluation of the quality of risk assessments related to occupational safety aspects on industrial sites. The survey involved defining a questionnaire with the most important elements (tasks) for OSRA quality assessment, which was then presented to safety experts in the mining, electrical power production, transportation, and petrochemical industries. With this work, we expect to contribute to the main question of OSRA in industries: "What constitutes a good occupational safety risk assessment?" The results obtained from the questionnaire showed that experts agree with the proposed OSRA process decomposition in steps and tasks (taxonomy) and also with the importance of assigning weights to obtain knowledge about OSRA task relevance. The knowledge gained will enable us, in the near future, to build a framework to evaluate OSRA quality for industrial sites. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Risk assessment and clinical decision making for colorectal cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroy, Paul C; Caron, Sarah E; Sherman, Bonnie J; Heeren, Timothy C; Battaglia, Tracy A

    2015-10-01

    Shared decision making (SDM) related to test preference has been advocated as a potentially effective strategy for increasing adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet primary care providers (PCPs) are often reluctant to comply with patient preferences if they differ from their own. Risk stratification advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) provides a rational strategy for reconciling these differences. To assess the importance of risk stratification in PCP decision making related to test preference for average-risk patients and receptivity to use of an electronic risk assessment tool for ACN to facilitate SDM. Mixed methods, including qualitative key informant interviews and a cross-sectional survey. PCPs at an urban, academic safety-net institution. Screening preferences, factors influencing patient recommendations and receptivity to use of a risk stratification tool. Nine PCPs participated in interviews and 57 completed the survey. Despite an overwhelming preference for colonoscopy by 95% of respondents, patient risk (67%) and patient preferences (63%) were more influential in their decision making than patient comorbidities (31%; P decision making, yet few providers considered risk factors other than age for average-risk patients. Providers were receptive to the use of a risk assessment tool for ACN when recommending an appropriate screening test for select patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  19. Post-Chelyabinsk Risk Assessment for Near Earth Objects (NEOs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.; Harris, A. W.

    2014-12-01

    The widely-accepted NEO risk assessments published in the 1990s concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Even though large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population because of a power-law size distribution, the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from these low-probability, high-consequence events is large. This conclusion led to the Spaceguard survey, which has now catalogued about 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course. The survey has reduced the assessed risk from this size range by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from objects tens of meters in diameter is therefore increasing.The absolute assessed risk from airbursts caused by objects of this size is also higher for two reasons. First, they may be more frequent than previously thought because of an underestimated population. Second, they are significantly more damaging than assumed in the original assessment because (in most cases) they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions. Last year's half-megaton airburst over Chelyabinsk, Russia, appears to challenge the notion that such events are extremely rare—especially when also considering the 1908 Tunguska event along with decades of infrasound bolide data showing higher-than-expected numbers of large airbursts.We will present a new analysis of the risk based on updated estimates for the population of undiscovered NEOs, taking into account the enhanced damage potential of collisional airbursts. Merging the survey population estimates with the bolide frequency estimates suggests a population of tens-of-meters sized bodies that may be a factor of three or so greater than estimated from surveys alone. Uncertainty in the population of airburst-class NEOs remains quite large, and can only be unambiguously reduced by expanded surveys focused on objects in the tens

  20. Physician assessment of stroke risk in hypertensive patients in the Middle East and Africa: results of the action survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badr, Kamal F; Boudia, Khereddine M Merad; Alami, Mohamed; Khoja, Waleed A; Belhani, Ali B; Nawar, Moustafa; Ragy, Hany; Ishaq, Mohammad; Baron, J M Muscat; Hammoudeh, Ayman J; De Mar Youssef, Suzan S; Nakhle, Reine M; Chalfoun, Amale G

    2007-01-01

    In the absence of reliable, contemporary national data, the ACTION survey was designed to: a) provide preliminary data on stroke risk in the MEA (Middle East and Africa); b) describe the contribution of specific cardiovascular risk factors; 3) assess blood pressure (BP) control. This was a multi-center observational study in nine countries in the MEA region. From 2003 to 2005, 562 physicians from a variety of specialties recorded observations of cardiovascular risk factors in 4,747 hypertensive patients, aged 54-80 years. The 10-year absolute stroke risk was calculated using a scoring system based on the Framingham Heart Study observations, and comparisons made with an age-matched cohort. The mean 10-year stroke risk was estimated at 22.7% and was significantly higher for men (25.4%) than for women (19.5%) (P age-matched Framingham cohort, the estimated stroke risk in our population was almost double, and was significantly higher for females (212%) than for males (192%) (P < .001). Hypertension, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy, and smoking were major contributing risk factors, as were physical inactivity and elevated cholesterol. Blood pressure was controlled in only 18% of the population and in 12% of diabetics. Physicians of all specialties were willing to participate in stroke risk assessment. The risk of stroke in hypertensive patients in the MEA region is high, and is higher than would be predicted using Framingham data, particularly for females. Hypertension appears to be poorly controlled in more than 80% of hypertensive patients in the MEA region.

  1. PDA survey of quality risk management practices in the pharmaceutical, devices, & biotechnology industries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Ruhi; Baseman, Harold; Ferreira, Jorge; Genova, Thomas; Harclerode, William; Hartman, Jeffery; Kim, Samuel; Londeree, Nanette; Long, Michael; Miele, William; Ramjit, Timothy; Raschiatore, Marlene; Tomonto, Charles

    2008-01-01

    In July 2006 the Parenteral Drug Association's Risk Management Task Force for Aseptic Processes, conducted an electronic survey of PDA members to determine current industry practices regarding implementation of Quality Risk Management in their organizations. This electronic survey was open and publicly available via the PDA website and targeted professionals in our industry who are involved in initiating, implementing, or reviewing risk management programs or decisions in their organizations. One hundred twenty-nine members participated and their demographics are presented in the sidebar "Correspondents Profile". Among the major findings are: *The "Aseptic Processing/Filling" operation is the functional area identified as having the greatest need for risk assessment and quality risk management. *The most widely used methodology in industry to identify risk is Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). This tool was most widely applied in assessing change control and for adverse event, complaint, or failure investigations. *Despite the fact that personnel training was identified as the strategy most used for controlling/minimizing risk, the largest contributors to sterility failure in operations are still "Personnel". *Most companies still rely on "Manufacturing Controls" to mitigate risk and deemed the utilization of Process Analytical Technology (PAT) least important in this aspect. *A majority of correspondents verified that they did not periodically assess their risk management programs. *A majority of the correspondents desired to see case studies or examples of risk analysis implementation (as applicable to aseptic processing) in future PDA technical reports on risk management.

  2. Preliminary survey for communicating risk in medical exposure. Perception of risk among nurses working in radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanda, Reiko; Tsuji, Satsuki; Shirakawa, Yoshiyuki; Yonehara, Hidenori

    2008-01-01

    A questionnaire survey was conducted on radiation risk and medical exposure, particularly in applications involving children. The survey was targeted at nurses (170 females) engaged in important roles in communicating risk regarding medical exposure. The questionnaire survey yielded the following findings. A significant number of respondents associated the word radiation' with 'cancer treatment,' 'exposure,' and 'X-ray pictures.' Perceptions about 'food exposure' differed between respondents with children and those without. Among the potential health problems posed by radiation, effects on children,' 'cancer and leukemia,' and 'genetic effects' were perceived as the most worrisome. Significant differences in perception were noted regarding infertility between respondents with children and those without. Concerning the effects of medical exposure on fetuses/children, only 10 percent of all respondents replied that they were not anxious about negative effects in either case. Among the respondents who felt uneasy about these aspects, most tended to assess exposed parts, doses, damage potentially suffered, timing of occurrence, and uncertainty, based on their professional experience and knowledge, to rationally distinguish acceptable risks from unacceptable ones and to limit concern to the unacceptable aspects. (author)

  3. The challenges of risk society for impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2017-01-01

    , the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions and the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate. Through a case example of integration of climate change in strategic environmental assessment, the paper uses empirical evidence from a survey and a series of interviews to carry out......This paper takes its point of departure in Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. The paper puts forward a hypothe- sis, on which theoretical challenges the characteristics of risk society pose to impact assessment as a decision support tool; namely...... a preliminary discussion of how the theoretical challenges are reflected in practice. The case study results show that the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions in a risk society is reflected in the current state of practice, while the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate...

  4. National survey of emergency physicians for transient ischemic attack (TIA) risk stratification consensus and appropriate treatment for a given level of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Jeffrey J; Losier, Justin H; Stiell, Ian G; Sharma, Mukul; Abdulaziz, Kasim

    2016-01-01

    Five percent of transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients have a subsequent stroke within 7 days. The Canadian TIA Score uses clinical findings to calculate the subsequent stroke risk within 7 days. Our objectives were to assess 1) anticipated use; 2) component face validity; 3) risk strata for stroke within 7 days; and 4) actions required, for a given risk for subsequent stroke. After a rigorous development process, a survey questionnaire was administered to a random sample of 300 emergency physicians selected from those registered in a national medical directory. The surveys were distributed using a modified Dillman technique. From a total of 271 eligible surveys, we received 131 (48.3%) completed surveys; 96.2% of emergency physicians would use a validated Canadian TIA Score; 8 of 13 components comprising the Canadian TIA Score were rated as Very Important or Important by survey respondents. Risk categories for subsequent stroke were defined as minimal-risk: 10% risk of subsequent stroke within 7 days. A validated Canadian TIA Score will likely be used by emergency physicians. Most components of the TIA Score have high face validity. Risk strata are definable, which may allow physicians to determine immediate actions, based on subsequent stroke risk, in the emergency department.

  5. Assessing the risk of self-diagnosed malaria in urban informal settlements of Nairobi using self-reported morbidity survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mugisha Frederick

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Because of the belief that Nairobi is a low risk zone for malaria, little empirical data exists on malaria risk in the area. The aim of this study was to explore the risk of perceived malaria and some associated factors in Nairobi informal settlements using self-reported morbidity survey. Methods The survey was conducted from May to August 2004 on 7,288 individuals in two informal settlements of Nairobi. Participants were asked to report illnesses they experienced in the past 14 days. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of perceived-malaria. The model included variables such as site of residence, age, ethnicity and number of reported symptoms. Results Participants reported 165 illnesses among which malaria was the leading cause (28.1%. The risk of perceived-malaria was significantly higher in Viwandani compared to Korogocho (OR 1.61, 95%CI: 1.10–2.26. Participants in age group 25–39 years had significantly higher odds of perceived-malaria compared to those under-five years (OR 2.07, 95%CI: 1.43–2.98. The Kikuyu had reduced odds of perceived-malaria compared to other ethnic groups. Individuals with five and more symptoms had higher odds compared to those with no symptoms (OR 23.69, 95%CI: 12.98–43.23. Conclusion Malaria was the leading cause of illness as perceived by the residents in the two informal settlements. This was rational as the number of reported symptoms was highly associated with the risk of reporting the illness. These results highlight the need for a more comprehensive assessment of malaria epidemiology in Nairobi to be able to offer evidence-based guidance to policy on malaria in Kenya and particularly in Nairobi.

  6. Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kucukali, Serhat, E-mail: kucukali@cankaya.edu.tr [Civil Engineering Department, Cankaya University, Balgat 06530, Ankara (Turkey)

    2011-10-15

    In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. - Highlights: > A new methodology is proposed for risk rating of river-type hydropower plant projects. > The relative importance of the risk factors was determined from the expert judgments. > The most concerned risks have been found as environmental issues and site geology. > The proposed methodology was tested on a real case. > The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis.

  7. INFORMATION SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT USING EXISTING LEGAL AND METHODOLOGICAL BASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Trubei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides a survey of the existing regulatory framework for information security riskmanagement. Practical methods for information security risk and vulnerability assessment are proposed.

  8. Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horie, Seichi

    2010-09-01

    Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  9. Occupational Health Policies on Risk Assessment in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seichi Horie

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law of Japan requires abnormalities identifi ed in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording “employers shall endeavor.” Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifi es criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer signifi cant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, fi nancial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  10. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  11. Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kucukali, Serhat

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. - Highlights: → A new methodology is proposed for risk rating of river-type hydropower plant projects. → The relative importance of the risk factors was determined from the expert judgments. → The most concerned risks have been found as environmental issues and site geology. → The proposed methodology was tested on a real case. → The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis.

  12. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  13. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  14. 2015/2016 Quality Risk Management Benchmarking Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldron, Kelly; Ramnarine, Emma; Hartman, Jeffrey

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the concept of quality risk management (QRM) maturity as it applies to the pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical industries, using the results and analysis from a QRM benchmarking survey conducted in 2015 and 2016. QRM maturity can be defined as the effectiveness and efficiency of a quality risk management program, moving beyond "check-the-box" compliance with guidelines such as ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management , to explore the value QRM brings to business and quality operations. While significant progress has been made towards full adoption of QRM principles and practices across industry, the full benefits of QRM have not yet been fully realized. The results of the QRM Benchmarking Survey indicate that the pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical industries are approximately halfway along the journey towards full QRM maturity. LAY ABSTRACT: The management of risks associated with medicinal product quality and patient safety are an important focus for the pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical industries. These risks are identified, analyzed, and controlled through a defined process called quality risk management (QRM), which seeks to protect the patient from potential quality-related risks. This paper summarizes the outcomes of a comprehensive survey of industry practitioners performed in 2015 and 2016 that aimed to benchmark the level of maturity with regard to the application of QRM. The survey results and subsequent analysis revealed that the pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical industries have made significant progress in the management of quality risks over the last ten years, and they are roughly halfway towards reaching full maturity of QRM. © PDA, Inc. 2017.

  15. Feedback Survey on the Usability of the OFFERA Method for Assessing an Exposure Risks of Computer Work Related to WMSDs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahman Mohd Nasrull Abdol

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The OFFERA method was designed to assess the exposure of the office workstation risk factors associated with WMSDs. This method involved six domains which include chair, desk, input device, monitor, accessories, and the environment. The purpose of this study was to assess the usability of the OFFERA method for assessing exposure risks of computer work related to WMSDs. The participants were trained to conduct the OFFERA method. Trial assessments on three different office jobs were conducted. The usability of the OFFERA method was identified based on the feedback questionnaire survey obtained from 44 practitioners (undergraduate students after the training. From the usability test, the OFFERA method was found be easy to use (mean 4.48 ± 0.698 and quick to use (mean 4.48 ± 0.821. However, the observers found that the font used was too small hence it was difficult to read the instruction (mean 3.93 ± 1.096. The pictures or illustrations in the OFFERA tool were also recorded as unclear based on the relatively low score for 18 items (mean 3.73± 1.128. Besides that, all participants agreed that OFFERA method is user-friendly, cost effective and applicable to a wide range of office-related activities.

  16. Perception and evaluation of risks. Findings of the 'Baden-Wuerttemberg Risk Survey 2001'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zwick, M.M.; Renn, O. (eds.)

    2002-05-01

    Since most of the empirical work on risk perception has been conducted in the 1970s and few studies are available that claim to span the full range of psychological, sociological and cultural variables, the Center of Technology Assessment in Stuttgart (Germany) has conducted a representative survey in the German State of Baden-Wuerttemberg on risk perception in the general population. In addition, a qualitative investigation based on a sample of 62 respondents was launched in 2001. The objective of the study was to determine the relative importance of psychometric, stigma-related, social value-related, trust-related and cultural variables in explaining risk perception and acceptance. The following report summarizes the results of these investigations. (orig.)

  17. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  18. Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Jiejing; Ren, Jiaojiao; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Sun, Hong; Ning, Ning; Ding, Ding

    2017-06-04

    This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as "relatively low", contrasting with 21.4% rated as "relatively high". Most of the respondents (62.7%) did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders.

  19. Survey on HIV risk perception and sexual behaviours among seafarers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grappasonni, I; Paci, P; Mazzucchi, F; Amenta, F

    2011-01-01

    Because the nature of their work seafarers spend long periods of time away from their families and therefore represent a group at risk for sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV infection. This paper reports the results of a survey to evaluate awareness and knowledge of the risk of HIV infection among seafarers. Risky behaviours for HIV transmission were also assessed. The survey was conducted using anonymous questionnaires on 197 workers of 9 vessels and 26 office employees of an Italian shipping company (FINAVAL S.p.A., Rome). The respondents considered HIV/AIDS as one of the diseases with a high risk of transmission. Most respondents had a good general knowledge of HIV/AIDS and on the ways of its transmission. However, there is still lack of knowledge on the basics of this disease. On the other hand, in spite of knowledge and awareness about the risks of the disease, only 56.35% of the interviewed crewmembers used protection in sexual intercourse with occasional partners. Compared to data available in literature, the percentage of self-protecting people is increasing, but the number of seafarers exposing themselves to risky behaviours is still high. As expected, condoms are used with regular partners with lower frequency compared to occasional intercourse. The results of this survey indicate that adequate prevention campaigns and major attention paid to seafarers health is useful for stimulating responsible conduct for the prevention of infectious diseases, including HIV infection. Nevertheless, it is still necessary to increase information about the risk of sexually transmitted diseases and how to reduce it.

  20. Patient satisfaction with a chronic kidney disease risk assessment service in community pharmacies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gheewala, Pankti A; Peterson, Gregory M; Zaidi, Syed Tabish R; Jose, Matthew D; Castelino, Ronald L

    2018-04-01

    Patient satisfaction is an important determinant of the feasibility and sustainability of community pharmacy screening services. However, few studies have evaluated this, with no such study performed for a chronic kidney disease risk assessment service. The aim was to determine patient satisfaction with a chronic kidney disease risk assessment service performed in community pharmacies. Community pharmacies in the state of Tasmania, Australia. An anonymous nine-item satisfaction survey, with Likert-type scales, was developed following a literature review of existing surveys. Reliability of the nine-item scale was determined using Cronbach's alpha. Patients were asked an additional question on willingness to pay, with choices of amount from $5 to $25. The satisfaction survey was mailed to 389 patients who participated in the chronic kidney disease risk assessment study. Patient level of satisfaction with and willingness to pay for the chronic kidney disease service. Responses from 143 participants were included in the final analysis. Cronbach's alpha for the nine-item satisfaction scale was 0.87. The majority of participants agreed that the time required to undergo the risk assessment process was justified (90.2%); overall, they were satisfied with the chronic kidney disease risk assessment service (90.0%) and they felt comfortable with the pharmacist referring their results to their doctor (88.9%). Of 136 participants who answered the question on willingness to pay, 62.9% indicated that they would pay for the chronic kidney disease service. Of these, 29.2, 25.8 and 19.1% were willing to pay $20, $10 and $5, respectively. Patient satisfaction with the community pharmacy-based chronic kidney disease risk assessment was high. These findings provide support for the implementation of the service within community pharmacy practice.

  1. Risk assessment of fluoride exposure in drinking water of Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guissouma, Wiem; Hakami, Othman; Al-Rajab, Abdul Jabbar; Tarhouni, Jamila

    2017-06-01

    The presence of fluoride in drinking water is known to reduce dental cavities among consumers, but an excessive intake of this anion might leads to dental and skeletal fluorosis. This study reports a complete survey of the fluoridated tap water taken from 100 water consumption points in Tunisia. The fluoride concentrations in tap water were between 0 and 2.4 mg L -1 . Risk assessment of Fluoride exposure was assessed depending on the age of consumers using a four-step method: hazard identification, toxicity reference values selection (TRVs), daily exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Our findings suggest that approximately 75% of the Tunisian population is at risk for dental decay, 25% have a potential dental fluorosis risk, and 20% might have a skeletal fluorosis risk according to the limits of fluoride in drinking water recommended by WHO. More investigations are recommended to assess the exposure risk of fluoride in other sources of drinking water such as bottled water. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  3. 78 FR 36784 - Survey of Nanomaterial Risk Management Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-19

    ...-0010, Docket Number NIOSH-265] Survey of Nanomaterial Risk Management Practices AGENCY: National...), Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). ACTION: Proposed NIOSH Survey of Nanomaterial Risk Management... questions addressing risk management practices for ENMs? (5) What should be the maximum amount of time...

  4. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  5. Equine peripheral dental caries: An epidemiological survey assessing prevalence and possible risk factors in Western Australian horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, K; Kelty, E; Tennant, M

    2018-01-01

    Peripheral dental caries is defined as macroscopic destruction of the calcified dental tissues and can cause considerable dental pathology and pain. It appears to occur at a high prevalence in Western Australian horses. At present, risk factors for the condition are poorly understood, making treatment and prevention difficult. To assess the prevalence of and potential risk factors for peripheral caries in Western Australian horses. Cross-sectional, epidemiological study. A survey of 500 Western Australian horses was administered in two sections. The first section was completed by the owner and referred to the horse's signalment, diet and husbandry conditions. The second section was completed by veterinarians and focused on the horse's oral health. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess risk factors associated with peripheral caries. Peripheral caries was present in 58.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 54.5-63.1%) of surveyed horses. Breed was significantly associated with peripheral caries, with Warmbloods (odds ratio [OR] 0.44, 95% CI 0.24-0.82; P = 0.009) and Western breeds (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.19-0.78; P = 0.008) being less likely to have peripheral caries than Thoroughbreds. Dietary risk factors included oaten hay (OR 2.90, 95% CI 1.87-4.53; P<0.001). A meadow hay-based diet was protective (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.27-0.80; P = 0.005). Horses with access to quality pasture all year were less likely to have peripheral caries than horses without access to grazing (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.15-0.66; P = 0.002), as were horses on groundwater compared with horses on rainwater (OR 3.35, 95% CI 1.65-6.78; P = 0.001), drinking water (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.14-3.62; P = 0.016) or dam water (OR 3.53, 95% CI 1.08-11.53; P = 0.037). Peripheral caries was positively correlated with periodontal disease (OR 4.53, 95% CI 2.91-7.06; P<0.001) and feed packing (feed present between the teeth without significant periodontal pocketing) (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.32-2.85; P = 0.001). Not

  6. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  7. Flood disaster risk assessment of rural housings--a case study of Kouqian Town in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Liupeng; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun

    2014-04-03

    Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and "3S" technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems), taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area.

  8. Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Jusun; Lee, Kyunglee; Walsh, Daniel P.; Kim, SangWha; Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Lee, Hang

    2018-01-01

    Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts’ opinions. To examine the experts’ perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and

  9. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  10. Development of risk assessment tool for foundry workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, G Madhan; Prasad, P S S; Mokkapati, Anil Kumar; Venkataraman, G

    2008-01-01

    Occupational ill-health and work-related disorders are predominant in manufacturing industries due to the inevitable presence of manual work even after several waves of industrial automation and technological advancements. Ergonomic risk factors and musculoskeletal disorders like low-back symptoms have been noted amongst foundry workers. The purpose of this study was to formulate and develop a Physical Effort Index to assess risk factor. The questionnaire tool applicable to foundry environment has been designed and validated. The data recorded through survey across the foundries has been subjected to regression analysis to correlate between proposed physical effort index and the standard Borg's Ratings of Perceived Exertion (RPE) scale. The physical efforts of sixty seven workers in various foundry shop floors were assessed subjectively. The 'Job factors' and 'Work environment' were the two major parameters considered in assessing the worker discomfort level at workplace. A relation between Borg's RPE scale and the above two parameters were arrived at, through regression analysis. The study demonstrates the prevalence of risk factors amongst foundry workers and the effectiveness of the proposed index in estimating the risk factor levels. RELEVANCE TO THE INDUSTRY: The proposed tool will assist foundry supervisors and managers to assess the risk factors and helps in better understanding of the workplace to avoid work-related disorders, ensuring better output.

  11. The German clinical risk management survey for hospitals: Implementation levels and areas for improvement in 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manser, Tanja; Frings, Janina; Heuser, Gregory; Mc Dermott, Fiona

    2016-01-01

    Despite the growing recognition of the need to implement systematic approaches for managing the risks associated with healthcare, few studies have investigated the level of implementation for clinical risk management (CRM) at a national level. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the current level of CRM implementation in German hospitals and to explore differences across hospital types. From March to June 2015, persons responsible for CRM in 2,617 hospitals and rehabilitation clinics in Germany were invited to participate in a voluntary online survey assessing the level of implementation for various aspects of CRM: CRM strategy, structures and processes; risk assessment (risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation) with a focus on incident reporting systems; risk mitigation measures; and risk monitoring and reporting. 572 hospitals participated in the survey (response rate 22 %). Most of these hospitals had a formalised, binding CRM strategy (72 %). 66 % had a centralised and 34 % a decentralised CRM structure. We also found that, despite a broad range of risk assessment methods being applied, there was a lack of integration of risk information from different data sources. Hospitals also reported a high level of implementation of critical incident reporting systems with a strong preference for local (74 %) over transorganisational systems. This study provides relevant data to inform targeted interventions concerning CRM implementation at a national level and to consider the specific context of different types of hospitals more carefully in this process. The approach to CRM assessment illustrated in this article could be the basis of a system for monitoring CRM over time and, thus, for evaluating the impact of strategy decisions at the policy level on CRM development. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  12. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  13. Orthopedic surgeons’ knowledge regarding risk of radiation exposition: a survey analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tunçer Nejat

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the knowledge levels of orthopedic surgeons working in Turkey about the uses and possible risks of fluoroscopy and assess methods for preventing radiation damage. Methods: A questionnaire with a total of 12 questions was sent to 1121 orthopedic surgeons working in Turkey. The questionnaire evaluated participants’ knowledge about the uses and risks of fluoroscopy and methods for preventing damage. One thousand and twenty-four orthopedic surgeons were found to be suitable for inclusion in the study. The effects of fluoroscopy on patients were not assessed in our study. Results: The data obtained were statistically evaluated. Of the surveyed surgeons, 313 (30% had used fluoroscopy in over 50% of their operations. The average number of fluoroscopy shots per case was 54.5. A lead apron was the most commonly used (88% protection from the harmful effects of radiation. Fluoroscopy shots were performed with the help of operating room personnel (86%. A dosimeter was used 5% of the time. Conclusion: According to the survey results, the need for fluoroscopy was very high in orthopedic surgery. However, orthopedic surgeons have inadequate knowledge about the uses and risks of fluoroscopy and methods for preventing damage. Therefore, we believe that training on this topic should be provided to all orthopedic surgeons.

  14. Orthopedic surgeons' knowledge regarding risk of radiation exposition: a survey analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunçer, Nejat; Kuyucu, Ersin; Sayar, Şafak; Polat, Gökhan; Erdil, İrem; Tuncay, İbrahim

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate the knowledge levels of orthopedic surgeons working in Turkey about the uses and possible risks of fluoroscopy and assess methods for preventing radiation damage. A questionnaire with a total of 12 questions was sent to 1121 orthopedic surgeons working in Turkey. The questionnaire evaluated participants' knowledge about the uses and risks of fluoroscopy and methods for preventing damage. One thousand and twenty-four orthopedic surgeons were found to be suitable for inclusion in the study. The effects of fluoroscopy on patients were not assessed in our study. The data obtained were statistically evaluated. Of the surveyed surgeons, 313 (30%) had used fluoroscopy in over 50% of their operations. The average number of fluoroscopy shots per case was 54.5. A lead apron was the most commonly used (88%) protection from the harmful effects of radiation. Fluoroscopy shots were performed with the help of operating room personnel (86%). A dosimeter was used 5% of the time. According to the survey results, the need for fluoroscopy was very high in orthopedic surgery. However, orthopedic surgeons have inadequate knowledge about the uses and risks of fluoroscopy and methods for preventing damage. Therefore, we believe that training on this topic should be provided to all orthopedic surgeons. © The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2017.

  15. Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana Open Bays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

    1995-06-23

    Data were collected prior to termination of discharge at three sites (including two open bay sites at Delacroix Island and Bay De Chene) for the risk assessments. The Delacroix Island Oil and Gas Field has been in production since the first well drilling in 1940; the Bay De Chene Field, since 1942. Concentrations of 226Ra, 228Ra, 210Po, and 228Th were measured in discharges. Radium conc. were measured in fish and shellfish tissues. Sediment PAH and metal conc. were also available. Benthos sampling was conducted. A survey of fishermen was conducted. The tiered risk assessment showed that human health risks from radium in produced water appear to be small; ecological risk from radium and other radionuclides in produced water also appear small. Many of the chemical contaminants discharged to open Louisiana bays appear to present little human health or ecological risk. A conservative screening analysis suggested potential risks to human health from Hg and Pb and a potential risk to ecological receptors from total effluent, Sb, Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni, Ag, Zn, and phenol in the water column and PAHs in sediment; quantitiative risk assessments are being done for these contaminants.

  16. A Protocol for Advanced Psychometric Assessment of Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Squires, Janet E.; Hayduk, Leslie; Hutchinson, Alison M.; Cranley, Lisa A.; Gierl, Mark; Cummings, Greta G.; Norton, Peter G.; Estabrooks, Carole A.

    2013-01-01

    Background and Purpose. In this paper, we present a protocol for advanced psychometric assessments of surveys based on the Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing. We use the Alberta Context Tool (ACT) as an exemplar survey to which this protocol can be applied. Methods. Data mapping, acceptability, reliability, and validity are addressed. Acceptability is assessed with missing data frequencies and the time required to complete the survey. Reliability is assessed with internal consistency coefficients and information functions. A unitary approach to validity consisting of accumulating evidence based on instrument content, response processes, internal structure, and relations to other variables is taken. We also address assessing performance of survey data when aggregated to higher levels (e.g., nursing unit). Discussion. In this paper we present a protocol for advanced psychometric assessment of survey data using the Alberta Context Tool (ACT) as an exemplar survey; application of the protocol to the ACT survey is underway. Psychometric assessment of any survey is essential to obtaining reliable and valid research findings. This protocol can be adapted for use with any nursing survey. PMID:23401759

  17. Surveying perceptions of landslide risk management in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Jessica Ka Yi; Eidsvig, Unni

    2016-04-01

    Enhanced precipitation due to climate change leads to increase in both frequency and intensity of landslides in Norway. A proactive approach to risk management is therefore required to significantly reduce the losses associated with landslides. Opinions and perceptions from practitioners on the performance of landslide risk management can provide insights on areas for improvement in the landslide risk management strategies in Norway. The Risk Management Index (RMI), proposed by Cardona et al. (2004), is a well-established method to measure perceptions of disaster management of selected actors holistically. The RMI is measured based on opinion questionnaires to technical staff, decision-makers, and stakeholders involved in all stages of risk reduction strategies. It is a composite index that considers a wide variety of strategies to manage risks, including structural and non-structural measures, acceptance strategies, disaster management, and risk transfer. The RMI method was modified to be implemented in landslide hazards and to fit with Norwegian conditions. An opinion survey was conducted in autumn 2015 to measure perceptions of landslide risk management in Norway. Perceptions were surveyed for two time periods: 2015 and 2050, and are based on national, county, and municipality levels. Based on the survey results, performance of landslide risk management at any administrative levels in Norway is perceived to improve from `significant' in 2015 to `significant' to `outstanding' in 2050. Knowledge and technology, climate, risk perceptions, and anthropogenic activities are mostly considered by respondents for their 2050 perceptions. Several aspects of landslide risk management in Norway can be improved. For example, landslide hazard evaluation and mapping should be prioritised in Norway. Upgrading, retrofitting, and reconstruction of assets may also be included in the landslide risk reduction strategies. In addition, there should be more focus on inter

  18. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  19. Development of a survey to assess adolescent perceptions of teen parenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrman, Judith W; Nandakumar, Ratna

    2012-01-01

    Initiatives designed to prevent teen pregnancy are often based on adult perceptions of the negative aspects of a teen birth. Qualitative research has revealed that teens may perceive positive rewards associated with teen parenting. These perceptions have not yet been examined through survey research. The theory of reasoned action proposes that individuals assess the costs and rewards prior to engaging in a behavior and provides a framework for the development of a survey instrument designed to measure adolescent thoughts about the costs and rewards of the teen parenting experience. This manuscript describes the development and testing of a quantitative survey instrument designed to measure adolescents' perceptions. Pretesting, piloting, exploratory factor analysis, and a variety of reliability and validity measures were used to determine the value of the measure. The thoughts on teen parenting survey (TTPS) demonstrates an alpha level of .90. The TTPS yields a cumulative score of teen perceptions about the impact of a teen birth during the adolescent years that may be used to assess youth beliefs, correlated with demographic data, used to identify teens at risk for pregnancy/parenting, or provide a pretest/posttest to assess the effectiveness of interventions designed to foster realistic attitudes toward teen parenting.

  20. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  1. Methodology in use for the assessment of carcinogenic risk. II. Radiation. Oncology overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-04-01

    Oncology Overviews are a service of the International Cancer Research Data Bank (ICRDB) Program of the National Cancer Institute, intended to facilitate and promote the exchange of information between cancer scientists by keeping them aware of literature related to their research being published by other laboratories throughout the world. Each Oncology Overview represents a survey of the literature associated with a selected area of cancer research. It contains abstracts of articles which have been selected and organized by researchers associated with the field. Contents: Assessment of carcinogenic risk from environmental and occupational exposures to ionizing radiation; Assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation used for medical diagnosis or treatment; Assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation following nuclear bomb explosions; Comparison of risk from radiation sources with risk from nonradiation sources; Experimental studies to assess risk of carcinogenesis following exposure to ionizing radiation; Theoretical aspects of dose-response relationships in the assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation; Public policy and standards for acceptable risk from exposure to ionizing radiation; General reviews on the assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiation

  2. Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, J; Lee, K; Walsh, D; Kim, S W; Sleeman, J M; Lee, H

    2018-02-01

    Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts' opinions. To examine the experts' perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and climate

  3. Indoor air quality investigation and health risk assessment at correctional institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ofungwu, Joseph

    2005-04-01

    A comprehensive indoor air-quality (IAQ) investigation was conducted at a state correctional facility in New Jersey, USA with a lengthy history of IAQ problems. The IAQ investigation comprised preliminary indoor air screening using direct readout instrumentation, indoor air/surface wipe sampling and laboratory analysis, as well as a heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system evaluation, and a building envelope survey. In addition to air sampling, a human health risk assessment was performed to evaluate the potential for exposure to site-related air contaminants with respect to the inmate and worker populations. The risk assessment results for the prison facility indicated the potential for significant health risks for the inmate population, possibly reflecting the effects of their confinement and extended exposure to indoor air contaminants, as compared to the prison guard and worker population. Based on the results of the risk assessment, several mitigation measures are recommended to minimize prison population health risks and improve indoor air quality at prison facilities.

  4. Risk perception and benefits perception. Survey results and discussion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Touzet, R.; Remedi, J.; Baron, J.; Caspani, C.

    2000-01-01

    The fact that the risks deriving from different activities involving the same radiation exposure are seen very differently by a single population is a highly significant one. Exactly identical risks are considered oppositely, depending on the origin of radiation (whether produced by medical applications or by nuclear power plants, resulting from natural radiation or from artificial radiation). It appears as if there was good radiation and bad radiation..! One of the purposes of the paper is the discussion of causes. The acceptance of a given risk by a certain section of the population is closely related to the benefits that the group expects to receive-either consciously or unconsciously-from the activity producing the risk. Consequently, an analysis of the factors influencing the eventual rejection of a practice should explore not only fears, but also hopes...! On the basis of a risk-perception survey carried out in a population sector attending hospitals-including both patients and physicians-, a prior objective analysis of the results obtained was performed and, later on, the various statements by those surveyed were studied. The design of the survey allowed for a comparative assessment of the perception of different risks depending on the people's educational and social level. An epistemological study was made on the validity involved in the use of the data resulting from the survey, so as to reach different conclusions. The population's opinion about the capacity for response, the qualification and the mitigation means available to the State authorities in order to face an eventual radiological emergency plays a leading role in risk perception. In an analysis of the relevant factors involved in risk and benefits perception by the population (in the real world), attention must be paid to the existence of organized opinion groups representing the interest of a given sector. Of course, the population's confidence in the experts providing the information is a key

  5. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  6. Relationship between HIV risk perception and condom use: Evidence from a population-based survey in Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prata, Ndola; Morris, Leo; Mazive, Elizio; Vahidnia, Farnaz; Stehr, Mark

    2006-12-01

    The relationship between individuals' perception of their risk for acquiring HIV and their use of condoms is poorly understood. Understanding this relationship is crucial to the development of effective strategies to fight HIV and AIDS. Data from the Mozambique 2001 Adolescent and Young Adult Reproductive Health and Behavior Risk Survey are used to compare 15-24-year-olds' assessments of their HIV risk with assessments based on current and past sexual behavior. In bivariate and probit regression analyses, the relationship between correct risk assessment and the likelihood of condom use at last intercourse is examined. Twenty-seven percent of women and 80% of men who considered themselves to have no risk or a small risk of contracting HIV were actually at moderate or high risk. For both men and women, the prevalence of condom use at last sex was more than twice as high among those who assessed their risk correctly (30% and 16%, respectively) as among those who did not (14% and 6%). Multivariate analysis showed that correct assessment was positively associated with condom use; the association was driven by use among never-married individuals. Never-married males who assessed their risk correctly were 18% more likely than other males to report condom use; never-married females, 17% more likely than other females. Educational messages should aim at enabling individuals to correctly assess their own HIV risk and encouraging behavior change based on self-assessment of risk.

  7. Ecological risk assessment in a large river-reservoir. 2: Fish community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, G.W. II; Barnthouse, L.W.; Efroymson, R.A.; Jager, H.

    1999-01-01

    This paper summarizes the assessment of risks to fishes in the Clinch River Operable Unit due to contaminants released by the US Department of Energy's activities on its Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee. This paper focuses on the most contaminated area, the Poplar Creek (PC) embayment. The assessment is of interest because of its use of five distinct lines of evidence: fish community surveys, fish body burdens, toxicity tests of ambient waters, suborganismal bioindicators, and single chemical toxicity tests. None of these lines of evidence provided unambiguous evidence of a significant risk, but the surveys indicated that the fish community in PC was depauperate, polychlorinated biphenyl body burdens may have been at toxic levels in catfish, one of the three tests of ambient water showed clear toxicity, some of the indicators were indicative of toxic effects, and concentrations that have been toxic in the laboratory were detected periodically. Interpretation was further complicated by upstream contamination of both the Clinch River and PC. The risk characterization was performed by evaluating each line of evidence separately and then weighing the evidence using an ecoepidemiological approach

  8. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  9. Usability of the Upper Limb Risk Assessment (UPLIRA Method for Assessing the Risk Factors of Upper Limb Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abd Razak Noor Syafiqa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available It is important to design ergonomic methods or assessment with a high usability and good ergonomic features, so the method is easily adaptable to the task and the workplace environment. Usability is a measurement on how well the user can use that functionality. The study converged on testing the usability of the new tools for assessing ULDs namely as Upper Limb Risk Assessment (UPLIRA. The UPLIRA method was evaluated by 6 students (3 undergraduate students and 3 postgraduates students from University Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM who are conducting research in ergonomic. From the feedback survey of UPLIRA method, the observers agree that the prototype of UPLIRA tool was applicable to workplace assessment for the wide range of jobs/task (mean 4.00, SD:0.632 with 83% percentage of agreement . They also indicate that UPLIRA method is quick to use (mean 3.67, SD:1.033 with percentage agreement of 67%. The scoring system and action level was rated as easy to understand (mean 3.67, SD:1.211 and (mean 4.17, SD:0.408. Conclusively, the UPLIRA method was rated as straightforward to use, applicable to wide range of tasks, and time saving as assessment can be completed within 10 minutes. In addition, the UPLIRA assessment covers an extensive range of physical, psychosocial, work organizational, and individual risk factors.

  10. Risk assessment in the DOE Assurance Program for Remedial Action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, S.; Cross, F.T.; Denham, D.H.; Kennedy, W.E.; Stenner, R.D.

    1985-08-01

    This document provides information obtained during the performance of risk assessment tasks in support of the Assurance Program for Remedial Action (APRA) sponsored by the Office of Operational Safety of the Department of Energy. We have presented a method for the estimation of projected health effects at properties in the vicinity of uranium mill tailing piles due to transported tailings or emissions from the piles. Because radon and radon daughter exposure is identified as the principal factor contributing to health effects at such properties, the basis for estimating lung cancer risk as a result of such exposure is discussed in detail. Modeling of health risk due to a secondary pathway, ingestion of contaminated, home-grown food products, is also discussed since it is a potentially important additional source of exposure in certain geographic locations. Risk assessment methods used in various mill tailings reports are reviewed. The protocols for radiological surveys conducted in DOE-sponsored remedial action programs are critically reviewed with respect to their relevance to the needs of health risk estimation. The relevance of risk assessment to the APRA program is discussed briefly

  11. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  12. Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Yaghoubpour

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of ​​Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.

  13. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  14. Care zoning in a psychiatric intensive care unit: strengthening ongoing clinical risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullen, Antony; Drinkwater, Vincent; Lewin, Terry J

    2014-03-01

    To implement and evaluate the care zoning model in an eight-bed psychiatric intensive care unit and, specifically, to examine the model's ability to improve the documentation and communication of clinical risk assessment and management. Care zoning guides nurses in assessing clinical risk and planning care within a mental health context. Concerns about the varying quality of clinical risk assessment prompted a trial of the care zoning model in a psychiatric intensive care unit within a regional mental health facility. The care zoning model assigns patients to one of 3 'zones' according to their clinical risk, encouraging nurses to document and implement targeted interventions required to manage those risks. An implementation trial framework was used for this research to refine, implement and evaluate the impact of the model on nurses' clinical practice within the psychiatric intensive care unit, predominantly as a quality improvement initiative. The model was trialled for three months using a pre- and postimplementation staff survey, a pretrial file audit and a weekly file audit. Informal staff feedback was also sought via surveys and regular staff meetings. This trial demonstrated improvement in the quality of mental state documentation, and clinical risk information was identified more accurately. There was limited improvement in the quality of care planning and the documentation of clinical interventions. Nurses' initial concerns over the introduction of the model shifted into overall acceptance and recognition of the benefits. The results of this trial demonstrate that the care zoning model was able to improve the consistency and quality of risk assessment information documented. Care planning and evaluation of associated outcomes showed less improvement. Care zoning remains a highly applicable model for the psychiatric intensive care unit environment and is a useful tool in guiding nurses to carry out routine patient risk assessments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons

  15. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  16. Flood Disaster Risk Assessment of Rural Housings — A Case Study of Kouqian Town in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Zhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and “3S” technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems, taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area.

  17. Flood Disaster Risk Assessment of Rural Housings — A Case Study of Kouqian Town in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Liupeng; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun

    2014-01-01

    Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and “3S” technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems), taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area. PMID:24705363

  18. An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Air Force Risk Management Practices in Program Acquisition Using Survey Instrument Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-18

    Engineering Effectiveness Survey. CMU/SEI-2012-SR-009. Carnegie Mellon University. November 2012. Field, Andy. Discovering Statistics Using SPSS , 3rd...enough into the survey to begin answering questions on risk practices. All of the data statistical analysis will be performed using SPSS . Prior to...probabilistically using distributions for likelihood and impact. Statistical methods like Monte Carlo can more comprehensively evaluate the cost and

  19. Exposure data and risk indicators for safety performance assessment in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Bijleveld, Frits; Cardoso, João L

    2013-11-01

    The objective of this paper is the analysis of the state-of-the-art in risk indicators and exposure data for safety performance assessment in Europe, in terms of data availability, collection methodologies and use. More specifically, the concepts of exposure and risk are explored, as well as the theoretical properties of various exposure measures used in road safety research (e.g. vehicle- and person-kilometres of travel, vehicle fleet, road length, driver population, time spent in traffic, etc.). Moreover, the existing methods for collecting disaggregate exposure data for risk estimates at national level are presented and assessed, including survey methods (e.g. travel surveys, traffic counts) and databases (e.g. national registers). A detailed analysis of the availability and quality of existing risk exposure data is also carried out. More specifically, the results of a questionnaire survey in the European countries are presented, with detailed information on exposure measures available, their possible disaggregations (i.e. variables and values), their conformity to standard definitions and the characteristics of their national collection methods. Finally, the potential of international risk comparisons is investigated, mainly through the International Data Files with exposure data (e.g. Eurostat, IRTAD, ECMT, UNECE, IRF, etc.). The results of this review confirm that comparing risk rates at international level may be a complex task, as the availability and quality of exposure estimates in European countries varies significantly. The lack of a common framework for the collection and exploitation of exposure data limits significantly the comparability of the national data. On the other hand, the International Data Files containing exposure data provide useful statistics and estimates in a systematic way and are currently the only sources allowing international comparisons of road safety performance under certain conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All

  20. Risks and risk assessment according to British legislation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieweg, K.

    1980-01-01

    The most important rules of the large number of legal regulations and other norms relating to risk control of technical installations discussed as far as their approach is quantitative: the regulations of the Health and Safety at Work Act of 1974, of the Factories Act of 1961, the Hazardous Installations (Notification and Survey) Regulation, the Canvey-Island Study, regulations referring to Atomic Energy Law and the administrative practice, legal regulations in the field of navigation, regulations concerning planning legislation including the Windscale-Study. In Great Britain, the power of decision in the field of technical safety has been clearly assigned to the administrative authorities. The legislature refrained from going into details in the stipulation of legal regulations, judicial control has not been provided for, or has only little relevance in practice. The prevailing goal is to reach decisions by consensus, taking every effort to solve conflicts of interest by mutual agreements. Methods and criteria in risk assessment have been modified according to technological knowledge and developments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  1. Sudbury soils study : summary of volume 3 : ecological risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-03-15

    The Sudbury soils study was comprised of 3 volumes: (1) a background, study organization and 2001 soils survey; (2) a human health risk assessment; and (3) an ecological risk assessment (ERA). This document provided details of the ERA, which was conducted to characterize the current and future risks of chemicals of concern (COC) to terrestrial and ecosystem components from Sudbury smelter particulate emissions. The extent to which COC are preventing the recovery of regionally representative terrestrial plant communities was investigated. Risks to terrestrial wildlife populations and endangered species and communities were evaluated. Samples of soil, water, sediment, plants, terrestrial invertebrates, and fish tissue were collected. Data were then analyzed by scientists and independent consultants in order to assess the impacts of arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, copper, lead, nickel and selenium. Results of the study indicated that terrestrial plant communities in the region continue to be impacted by COC in the soil, as well as by soil erosion, low nutrient levels, and a lack of soil organic matter. Direct impacts on wildlife populations were also observed. 5 refs., 7 tabs., 21 figs.

  2. Assessment of the use in adults of four vaccines: a population survey in Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Vizzotti

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Vaccination is one of the most effective strategies for disease prevention. Argentina initiated the transition from child vaccination to family vaccination through the incorporation of an adult schedule. One of the difficulties with this last group is to assess the percentage of use (PU of the vaccines. With the aim of determining the PU of adult vaccines in Argentina, a vaccination module was included in the National Survey of Risk Factors carried out in 2013 by the National Ministry of Health. The sampling had a stratified multistage design. A total of 32 365 people = 18 year-old were surveyed about the use of four vaccines included in the National Vaccination Calendar: hepatitis B, tetanus, influenza, and pneumococcus. The entire population was surveyed for tetanus and hepatitis B while certain groups at risk were evaluated for influenza and pneumococcus, according to current recommendations. PU varied according to the vaccine analyzed: tetanus 49.8%, hepatitis B 21.7%, influenza 51.6% and pneumococcus 16.2%. The main information sources on adult vaccination were media (television, internet, etc. followed by health personnel (70.8% and 27.9%, respectively. The survey is a suitable tool to assess the use of vaccines by adults, identify low coverage populations, and to plan and implement strategies to improve coverage

  3. Intuitive risk perception: research results of attitude surveys toward risk and technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.; Peters, H.P.

    1982-01-01

    Using the instruments of the empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severity of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks

  4. Is cell culture a risky business? Risk analysis based on scientist survey data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shannon, Mark; Capes-Davis, Amanda; Eggington, Elaine; Georghiou, Ronnie; Huschtscha, Lily I; Moy, Elsa; Power, Melinda; Reddel, Roger R; Arthur, Jonathan W

    2016-02-01

    Cell culture is a technique that requires vigilance from the researcher. Common cell culture problems, including contamination with microorganisms or cells from other cultures, can place the reliability and reproducibility of cell culture work at risk. Here we use survey data, contributed by research scientists based in Australia and New Zealand, to assess common cell culture risks and how these risks are managed in practice. Respondents show that sharing of cell lines between laboratories continues to be widespread. Arrangements for mycoplasma and authentication testing are increasingly in place, although scientists are often uncertain how to perform authentication testing. Additional risks are identified for preparation of frozen stocks, storage and shipping. © 2015 UICC.

  5. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  6. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  7. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  8. Teen Dating Violence (Physical and Sexual) Among US High School Students: Findings From the 2013 National Youth Risk Behavior Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vagi, Kevin J; O'Malley Olsen, Emily; Basile, Kathleen C; Vivolo-Kantor, Alana M

    2015-05-01

    National estimates of teen dating violence (TDV) reveal high rates of victimization among high school populations. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's national Youth Risk Behavior Survey has provided often-cited estimates of physical TDV since 1999. In 2013, revisions were made to the physical TDV question to capture more serious forms of physical TDV and to screen out students who did not date. An additional question was added to assess sexual TDV. To describe the content of new physical and sexual TDV victimization questions first administered in the 2013 national Youth Risk Behavior Survey, to share data on the prevalence and frequency of TDV (including the first-ever published overall "both physical and sexual TDV" and "any TDV" national estimates using these new questions), and to assess associations of TDV experience with health-risk behaviors. Secondary data analysis of a cross-sectional survey of 9900 students who dated, from a nationally representative sample of US high school students, using the 2013 national Youth Risk Behavior Survey. Two survey questions separately assessed physical and sexual TDV; this analysis combined them to create a 4-level TDV measure and a 2-level TDV measure. The 4-level TDV measure includes "physical TDV only," "sexual TDV only," "both physical and sexual TDV," and "none." The 2-level TDV measure includes "any TDV" (either or both physical and sexual TDV) and "none." Sex-stratified bivariate and multivariable analyses assessed associations between TDV and health-risk behaviors. In 2013, among students who dated, 20.9% of female students (95% CI, 19.0%-23.0%) and 10.4% of male students (95% CI, 9.0%-11.7%) experienced some form of TDV during the 12 months before the survey. Female students had a higher prevalence than male students of physical TDV only, sexual TDV only, both physical and sexual TDV, and any TDV. All health-risk behaviors were most prevalent among students who experienced both forms of TDV and were

  9. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  10. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  11. Comparison of landslide hazard and risk assessment practices in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O.

    2012-04-01

    An overview is made of the landslide hazard and risk assessment practices that are officially promoted or applied in Europe by administration offices, geological surveys, and decision makers (recommendations, regulations and codes). The reported countries are: Andorra, Austria, France, Italy (selected river basins), Romania, Spain (Catalonia), Switzerland and United Kingdom. The objective here was to compare the different practices for hazard and risk evaluation with respect to the official policies, the methodologies used (qualitative and quantitative), the provided outputs and their contents, and the terminology and map symbols used. The main observations made are illustrated with examples and the possibility of harmonization of the policies and the application of common practices to bridge the existing gaps is discussed. Some of the conclusions reached include the following: zoning maps are legally binding for public administrators and land owners only in some cases and generally when referring to site-specific or local scales rather than regional or national ones; so far, information is mainly provided on landslide susceptibility and hazard and risk assessment is performed only in a few countries; there is a variation in the use of scales between countries; the classification criteria for landslide types and mechanisms present large diversity even within the same country (in some cases no landslide mechanisms are specified while in others there is an exhaustive list); the techniques to obtain input data for the landslide inventory and susceptibility maps vary from basic to sophisticated, resulting in various levels of data quality and quantity; the procedures followed for hazard and risk assessment include analytical procedures supported by computer simulation, weighted-indicators, expert judgment and field survey-based, or a combination of all; there is an important variation between hazard and risk matrices with respect to the used parameters, the thresholds

  12. Pesticide residues and bees--a risk assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Sanchez-Bayo

    Full Text Available Bees are essential pollinators of many plants in natural ecosystems and agricultural crops alike. In recent years the decline and disappearance of bee species in the wild and the collapse of honey bee colonies have concerned ecologists and apiculturalists, who search for causes and solutions to this problem. Whilst biological factors such as viral diseases, mite and parasite infections are undoubtedly involved, it is also evident that pesticides applied to agricultural crops have a negative impact on bees. Most risk assessments have focused on direct acute exposure of bees to agrochemicals from spray drift. However, the large number of pesticide residues found in pollen and honey demand a thorough evaluation of all residual compounds so as to identify those of highest risk to bees. Using data from recent residue surveys and toxicity of pesticides to honey and bumble bees, a comprehensive evaluation of risks under current exposure conditions is presented here. Standard risk assessments are complemented with new approaches that take into account time-cumulative effects over time, especially with dietary exposures. Whilst overall risks appear to be low, our analysis indicates that residues of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid insecticides pose the highest risk by contact exposure of bees with contaminated pollen. However, the synergism of ergosterol inhibiting fungicides with those two classes of insecticides results in much higher risks in spite of the low prevalence of their combined residues. Risks by ingestion of contaminated pollen and honey are of some concern for systemic insecticides, particularly imidacloprid and thiamethoxam, chlorpyrifos and the mixtures of cyhalothrin and ergosterol inhibiting fungicides. More attention should be paid to specific residue mixtures that may result in synergistic toxicity to bees.

  13. The Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk: State of Workshop Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisani, Anthony R.; Cross, Wendi F.; Gould, Madelyn S.

    2011-01-01

    A systematic search of popular and scholarly databases identified workshops that addressed general clinical competence in the assessment or management of suicide risk, targeted mental health professionals, and had at least one peer-reviewed publication. We surveyed workshop developers and examined empirical articles associated with each workshop.…

  14. Caribbean Marine Mammal Assessment Vessel Surveys

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data sets are a compilation of large vessel surveys for marine mammal stock assessments in Caribbean waters conducted during 2000-2001. These surveys were...

  15. A procedure for grouping food consumption data for use in food allergen risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birot, Sophie; Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Kruizinga, Astrid G.

    2017-01-01

    Food allergic subjects need to avoid the allergenic food that triggers their allergy. However, foods can also contain unintended allergens. Food manufacturers or authorities need to perform a risk assessment to be able to decide if unintended allergen presence constitutes a risk to food allergic...... consumers. One of the input parameters in risk assessment is the amount of a given food consumed in a meal. There has been little emphasis on how food consumption data can be used in food allergen risk assessment. The aim of the study was to organize the complex datasets from National Food Consumption...... Surveys from different countries (France, Netherlands and Denmark) to be manageable in food allergen risk assessment. To do this, a two-step method was developed. First, based on initial groups of similar food items, the homogeneity of consumption was evaluated using a customized clustering method. Then...

  16. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  17. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  18. Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, Dina; Pieters, Wolter; Teixeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

    2017-01-01

    Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by implementing suitable risk treatment plans. However, an overarching overview of these methods, systematizing the characteristics of such methods, is missing. In this paper, we conduct a systematic l...

  19. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  20. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  1. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  2. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  3. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  4. Community-Based Diabetes Screening and Risk Assessment in Rural West Virginia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranjita Misra

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This project utilized a cross-sectional study design to assess diabetes risk among 540 individuals from 12 counties using trained extension agents and community organizations in West Virginia. Individuals were screened for diabetes using (1 the validated 7-item diabetes risk assessment survey and (2 hemoglobin A1c tests. Demographic and lifestyle behaviors were also collected. The average age, body mass index, and A1c were 51.2±16.4, 31.1±7.5, and 5.8±0.74, respectively. The majority were females, Non-Hispanic Whites with no prior diagnosis of diabetes. Screenings showed that 61.8% of participants were at high risk for diabetes. Family history of diabetes (siblings or parents, overweight or obese status, sedentary lifestyle, and older age were commonly prevalent risk factors. Higher risk scores computed from the 7-item questions correlated positively with higher A1c (r=0.221, P<0.001. In multivariate logistic regression analyses, higher diabetes risk was predicted by obesity, older age, family history of hypertension, and gestational diabetes. Females were 4 times at higher risk than males. The findings indicated that community-based screenings were an effective way to assess diabetes risk in rural West Virginia. Linking diabetes screenings with referrals to lifestyle programs for high risk individuals can help reduce the burden of diabetes in the state.

  5. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  6. Dentists' use of caries risk assessment in children: findings from the Dental Practice-Based Research Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riley, Joseph L; Qvist, Vebeke; Fellows, Jeffrey L

    2010-01-01

    This study surveyed Dental Practice-Based Research Network (DPBRN) member dentists (from four regions in the U.S. and Scandinavia) who perform restorative dentistry in their practices. The survey asked a range of questions about caries risk assessment in patients aged 6 to 18. Among respondents, 73...

  7. Survey on methodologies in the risk assessment of chemical exposures in emergency response situations in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heinälä, Milla; Gundert-Remy, Ursula; Wood, Maureen Heraty

    2013-01-01

    A scientifically sound assessment of the risk to human health resulting from acute chemical releases is the cornerstone for chemical incident prevention, preparedness and response. Although the general methodology to identify acute toxicity of chemicals has not substantially changed in the last....../corrosive chemicals will remain serious risks also in future the development of plausible scenarios for potential emerging risks is also needed. This includes risks from new mixtures and chemicals (e.g. nanoparticles)....

  8. Perceptions of genetic discrimination among people at risk for Huntington?s disease: a cross sectional survey

    OpenAIRE

    Bombard, Yvonne; Veenstra, Gerry; Friedman, Jan M; Creighton, Susan; Currie, Lauren; Paulsen, Jane S; Bottorff, Joan L; Hayden, Michael R

    2009-01-01

    Objective To assess the nature and prevalence of genetic discrimination experienced by people at risk for Huntington?s disease who had undergone genetic testing or remained untested. Design Cross sectional, self reported survey. Setting Seven genetics and movement disorders clinics servicing rural and urban communities in Canada. Participants 233 genetically tested and untested asymptomatic people at risk for Huntington?s disease (response rate 80%): 167 underwent testing (83 had the Huntingt...

  9. Yucca Mountain socioeconomic project report on the 1987 risk perception telephone surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunreuther, H.; Nigg, J.; Desvousges, W.H.

    1987-09-01

    The measurement of the risk-related impacts from the siting of a high-level nuclear waste (HLNW) repository represents a new and important addition to conventional socioeconomic impact studies. In particular, the driving forces behind these impacts are the risks people perceive to be associated with the repository. Measuring the risk impacts requires a complementary set of approaches, of which, risk surveys are the cornerstone.a The purpose of these surveys is to provide scientifically defensible measures of the risk-related impacts. The risk surveys follow directly from a conceptual framework of how the HLNW repository affects peoples' perceptions and, ultimately, their behaviors. These surveys describe and measure: Characteristics of individuals, Risks people perceive from the HLNW repository, Views, or mind sets, they form about the HLNW repository, Changes in behaviors--e.g., changes in retirement decisions or industrial relocations--induced by the location of the repository, and Changes in well-being of Nevada citizens, if the repository were located at Yucca Mountain

  10. Yucca Mountain socioeconomic project report on the 1987 risk perception telephone surveys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunreuther, H. [Pennsylvania Univ., Philadelphia, PA (United States). Wharton School of Finance and Commerce; Slovic, P. [Decision Research, Eugene, OR (United States); Nigg, J. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Desvousges, W.H. [Research Triangle Inst., Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1987-09-01

    The measurement of the risk-related impacts from the siting of a high-level nuclear waste (HLNW) repository represents a new and important addition to conventional socioeconomic impact studies. In particular, the driving forces behind these impacts are the risks people perceive to be associated with the repository. Measuring the risk impacts requires a complementary set of approaches, of which, risk surveys are the cornerstone.a The purpose of these surveys is to provide scientifically defensible measures of the risk-related impacts. The risk surveys follow directly from a conceptual framework of how the HLNW repository affects peoples` perceptions and, ultimately, their behaviors. These surveys describe and measure: Characteristics of individuals, Risks people perceive from the HLNW repository, Views, or mind sets, they form about the HLNW repository, Changes in behaviors--e.g., changes in retirement decisions or industrial relocations--induced by the location of the repository, and Changes in well-being of Nevada citizens, if the repository were located at Yucca Mountain.

  11. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  12. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  13. Self-reported cardiac risks and interest in risk modification among volunteer firefighters: a survey-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Patrick; Ablah, Elizabeth

    2008-12-01

    Coronary heart disease causes approximately 45% of firefighter deaths annually. Although firefighters have clinically significant cardiac risks, a paucity of research and data exists. To evaluate firefighters' cardiac risk factors as well as their motivation to resolve these risk factors. During a 3-month period, volunteer firefighters representing the 79 fire departments serving Nassau and Suffolk counties in Long Island, NY, were asked to complete a nonvalidated, 19-item questionnaire regarding their health habits, medical history, and demographics. A total of 730 surveys were returned among a potential study population of 20,590 volunteer firefighters. More than three-quarters of respondents met the criteria for being overweight or obese, and nearly 40% reported having high blood pressure, high cholesterol, or both. Most respondents expressed at least some interest in attending a fire department-sponsored health lecture and participating in a fitness program. Firefighters expressed desire to learn more about risk factor modifications and have fire departments take a more active role in helping firefighters improve their health. The effectiveness of resources and intervention programs should be assessed.

  14. Methane Risk Assessment in Underground Mines by Means of a Survey by the Panel of Experts (Sope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugeniusz Krause

    2014-01-01

    Originality/value: The obtained values of the indicators of methane risk assessment and analysis of their changes showed that the proposed method can be an important element in the design and construction of a modern methane safety system in coal mines. It provides the possibility of controlling this risk and enables the minimization of its consequences in accordance with the criteria of their acceptance, adopted in this paper. The method does not replace the currently used methods of methane risk assessment, but complements them in a significant and modern way.

  15. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2016

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2017-01-01

    surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs......), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR......) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated...

  16. Does exposure to lahars risk affect people's risk-preferences and other attitudes? Field data from incentivized experiments and surveys in Arequipa - Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitz, C.; Bchir, M. A.; Willinger, M.

    2012-04-01

    Many individuals are exposed to risks which are either difficult to insure or hard to mitigate, such as tsunamis, floods, volcanic eruption,... Little is known about how exposure to such risks shapes individuals' risk-preferences. Are they more (less) risk-averse than people who are unexposed to such hazard risk? We provide empirical evidence about this question for the case of individuals exposed to lahars risk. Lahars are sediments laden flows from volcanic origin. We compare the risk-attitude of people exposed - versus non-exposed ones - to lahars risk. The originality of our approach is that we combine standard survey data to behavioural data collected by means of incentivized experiments. We collected data in various locations of the city of Arequipa (Peru), a densely populated area down the volcano El Misti. Participants in our experiment were identified as (non-)exposed to lahars risk based on risk zoning. Our survey questionnaire allows us to compare assessed exposure and the perceived exposure. We elicit risk-preference, time-preference, and trusting behaviour (a measure of social capital) for each respondent in addition to standard survey data. Our field experiment involved a total of 209 respondents from exposed and non-exposed areas. While respondents endow legitimacy in risk reduction (more than 74%) to a national authority (Defensa Civil) in charge of the management of risk in the city, more than 64% of them consider that they are not sufficiently informed about the behaviours to adopt in case of a disaster. Respondents are therefore poorly motivated to adopt initiatives of self-protection (23%) and express instead high expectations with respect to authorities' actions for decreasing their vulnerability (73%). The experimental data show that participants who live in exposed areas are not significantly more risk-averse than those living in non-exposed ones. Furthermore, there is no significant difference in time-preference between exposed and non

  17. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  18. Can smoking initiation contexts predict how adult Aboriginal smokers assess their smoking risks? A cross-sectional study using the ‘Smoking Risk Assessment Target’

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, Gillian Sandra; Watt, Kerrianne; West, Robert; Cadet-James, Yvonne; Clough, Alan R

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Smoking prevalence is slow to reduce among Indigenous Australians of reproductive age. We analysed the relationships between age of smoking initiation, recalled initiation influences and self-assessment of smoking risks in Aboriginal smokers. Design, setting and participants A community-based cross-sectional survey of Aboriginal smokers aged 18–45 years (N=121; 58 men) was undertaken, using single-item measures. The Smoking Risk Assessment Target (SRAT) as the primary outcome measure enabled self-assessment of smoking risks from 12 options, recategorised into 3 groups. Participants recalled influences on their smoking initiation. Multinomial logistic regression modelling included age, gender, strength of urges to smoke, age at initiation (regular uptake) and statistically significant initiation influences on χ2 tests (‘to be cool’, alcohol and cannabis). Results Frequent initiation influences included friends (74%; SD 0.44), family (57%; SD 0.5) and alcohol (40%; SD 0.49). 54% (n=65) of smokers had the highest risk perception on the SRAT, selected by those who cared about the smoking risks and intended to quit soon. On multivariate analyses, compared with the highest level of SRAT, male gender, lower age of uptake and strong urges to smoke were significantly associated with the lowest level of SRAT, selected by those who refuted risks or thought they could not quit. Lower age of uptake and alcohol were associated with mid-level of SRAT, selected by those who cared about smoking risks, but did not consider quitting as a priority. Conclusions Characteristics of smoking initiation in youth may have far-reaching associations with how smoking risks are assessed by adults of reproductive age, and their intentions to quit smoking. Becoming a regular smoker at under the age of 16 years, and influences of alcohol on smoking uptake, were inversely associated with high-level assessment of smoking risks and intention to quit in regional Aboriginal smokers

  19. Improving nursing students' assessment of fall risk in community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patton, Susan K

    2016-12-09

    Nationally, approximately one third of older adults fall each year. Falls and resulting injury result in decreased mobility, functional impairment, loss of independence, and increased mortality. Utilization of evidence-based protocols by health care providers to identify older adults at risk of falling is limited, and rates of participation by older adults in prevention activities is low. Because of nursing's increasing role in caring for older adults, development of fall prevention education for nursing students would result in increased awareness of the need for fall prevention in community-dwelling older adults and increased access of older adults to falls risk assessment. There is a need to extend research to inform teaching and learning strategies for fall prevention. After pretesting, a convenience sample of 52 undergraduate nursing students and 22 graduate nursing students completed an online education program and performed a falls risk assessment on an older adult. After completing the clinical assignment, students completed a posttest and self-efficacy survey. Data were analyzed using multivariate statistical tests. Results revealed an increase in knowledge and student self-reporting of efficacy of fall risk assessment skills for the older adult population. This study suggests that nursing students acquired the necessary knowledge and self-efficacy for assessing fall risk of older adults through the combination of an online learning module and participating in actual fall risk assessment of an older adult.

  20. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  1. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  2. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  3. Who comes to a workplace health risk assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbins, T A; Simpson, J M; Oldenburg, B; Owen, N; Harris, D

    1998-01-01

    Workplace health promotion initiatives have proliferated, but there are difficulties in recruiting employees of lower socioeconomic status and at higher risk of disease. A survey of health behaviors and attitudes was administered in 20 worksites and the opportunity to attend a health risk assessment promoted. Those more likely to attend were women, those of higher occupational prestige, and those from a non-English-speaking background. After adjustment for these variables, the only health behavior associated with attendance was smoking status. Perceived risk of lung cancer was significant, even after adjustment for smoking status. Stage of readiness to change health behaviors was associated with attendance, with those in the preparation stage being more likely to attend than those in the precontemplation stage. However, this association was statistically significant only for fruit and vegetable consumption. There was no relation between attendance and support for health promotion, perceived general health, or other perceived risk of disease. These findings suggest that additional risk communication strategies and environmental support are required to involve those with less prestigious occupations.

  4. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  5. Cross-sectional Serologic Assessment of Immunity to Poliovirus in Differential Risk Areas of India: India Seroprevalence Survey - 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Mohammad; Bahl, Sunil; Kunwar, Abhishek

    2016-08-07

    To assess the seroprevalence against all three poliovirus serotypes in traditional high risk areas in Bihar, lowest routine immunization coverage areas in Madhya Pradesh and migrant population living in Mumbai urban slums. Cross-sectional Survey. Subjects selected by house to house visit (community based) and transported to government health facilities for further study procedures. 1137 randomly selected healthy infants 6-11 months of age residing in the selected high-risk areas. Serum samples from the study site were shipped to Enterovirus Research Centre (ERC), Mumbai to determine the neutralizing antibodies against all three poliovirus serotypes. Children with a reciprocal antibody titer ≥1:8 were considered seropositive to the specific poliovirus. Overall, seroprevalence in all the three study areas was 98%, 98% and 91% against poliovirus type-1, type-2 and type-3, respectively. Bihar had a seroprevalence of 99%, 99% and 92% against type-1, type-2 and type-3 respectively. Corresponding figures for Madhya Pradesh and Mumbai were 98%, 99% and 88% and 98%, 97% and 94%, respectively. The study found high seroprevalence against all three poliovirus types not only in the traditional high-risk areas for polio in India, but even in the areas known to have low routine immunization coverage and among the migratory clusters living in Mumbai urban slums. Type-2 seroprevalence was found to be high. These findings are reassuring against the threat of emergence of circulating vaccine derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) in the country subsequent to switch from trivalent oral polio vaccine to bivalent oral polio vaccine in the routine immunization schedule from April 2016.

  6. Work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMDs) risk assessment at core assembly production of electronic components manufacturing company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahya, N. M.; Zahid, M. N. O.

    2018-03-01

    This study conducted to assess the work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMDs) among the workers at core assembly production in an electronic components manufacturing company located in Pekan, Pahang, Malaysia. The study is to identify the WMDs risk factor and risk level. A set of questionnaires survey based on modified Nordic Musculoskeletal Disorder Questionnaires have been distributed to respective workers to acquire the WMDs risk factor identification. Then, postural analysis was conducted in order to measure the respective WMDs risk level. The analysis were based on two ergonomics assessment tools; Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) and Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA). The study found that 30 respondents out of 36 respondents suffered from WMDs especially at shoulder, wrists and lower back. The WMDs risk have been identified from unloading process, pressing process and winding process. In term of the WMDs risk level, REBA and RULA assessment tools have indicated high risk level to unloading and pressing process. Thus, this study had established the WMDs risk factor and risk level of core assembly production in an electronic components manufacturing company at Malaysia environment.

  7. High risk behaviour near OPG dams and power stations : results from two surveys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giesbrecht, N.; Schmidt, R.; Ialomiteanu, A. [Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    High risk behaviour near dams is not uncommon. This presentation discussed the results from 2 surveys on high risk behaviour near dams and power stations operated by Ontario Power Generation (OPG). The main components of the project were presented, with particular reference to analyses of recent literature on high-risk behaviour; interviews with OPG managers and staff in 4 regions; main survey of respondents from 4 regions; follow-up interviews with high-risk respondents; interviews with community members and contacts from recreational associations; and recommendations. Specific questions and results were provided from each survey. From the first survey, the characteristics of respondents that used OPG sites for recreation were identified. One hundred high risk respondents completed a follow-up interview. The survey showed that although high-risk behaviour is not uncommon, the main reason people use the facilities are for recreation and relaxation, and not for thrill seeking purposes. Recommendations stemming from the surveys included the need for definition of boundaries and delivery of messages via children, recreational associations, and law enforcement personnel. tabs., figs.

  8. Assessment of Technogenic Accident Risk of Industrial Building Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baiburin, D. A.; Baiburin, A. Kh

    2017-11-01

    A methodology for assessing the risk of an industrial building accident was developed taking into account the damage caused by various localization of collapse. Before the beginning of the survey of a facility technical condition, groups including the same type of building structures are selected. Further, assessment is made for the reduction in their load-carrying capacity from the strength and stability conditions taking into account defects. The characteristics of the influence of defects and structural damage on a building safety is the degree of compliance with the standards expressed by the reliability level. Reliability levels assignment is carried out on the basis of calculations, operating experience and inspection of a particular type of structure according to the formalized rules. The risk of collapse according to a separate scenario is calculated for structures that are capable and incapable of causing a progressive ossification. The results of the technique application are based on the analysis of the accident risk at the welding shop “Vysota (Height) 239” of the Chelyabinsk Pipe Rolling Plant.

  9. Osteoporosis risk prediction for bone mineral density assessment of postmenopausal women using machine learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Tae Keun; Kim, Sung Kean; Kim, Deok Won; Choi, Joon Yul; Lee, Wan Hyung; Oh, Ein; Park, Eun-Cheol

    2013-11-01

    A number of clinical decision tools for osteoporosis risk assessment have been developed to select postmenopausal women for the measurement of bone mineral density. We developed and validated machine learning models with the aim of more accurately identifying the risk of osteoporosis in postmenopausal women compared to the ability of conventional clinical decision tools. We collected medical records from Korean postmenopausal women based on the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. The training data set was used to construct models based on popular machine learning algorithms such as support vector machines (SVM), random forests, artificial neural networks (ANN), and logistic regression (LR) based on simple surveys. The machine learning models were compared to four conventional clinical decision tools: osteoporosis self-assessment tool (OST), osteoporosis risk assessment instrument (ORAI), simple calculated osteoporosis risk estimation (SCORE), and osteoporosis index of risk (OSIRIS). SVM had significantly better area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic than ANN, LR, OST, ORAI, SCORE, and OSIRIS for the training set. SVM predicted osteoporosis risk with an AUC of 0.827, accuracy of 76.7%, sensitivity of 77.8%, and specificity of 76.0% at total hip, femoral neck, or lumbar spine for the testing set. The significant factors selected by SVM were age, height, weight, body mass index, duration of menopause, duration of breast feeding, estrogen therapy, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, osteoarthritis, and diabetes mellitus. Considering various predictors associated with low bone density, the machine learning methods may be effective tools for identifying postmenopausal women at high risk for osteoporosis.

  10. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  11. Progress with situation assessment and risk prediction in advanced driver assistance systems : A survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rendon-Velez, E.; Horváth, I.; Opiyo, E.Z.

    2009-01-01

    In the field of automotive safety, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are receiving growing attention. Effective ADAS requires awareness of the actual driving situation, a reliable assessment of the risks, and making rapid decisions on assisting actions. This paper reviews the current

  12. Risk assessment in the European Community (EC); perspective as partial contributor in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinck, W.

    1981-01-01

    This paper is oriented towards the use of nuclear power for electricity production. The subject is discussed under the following headings: preamble; survey of practice and trends in reliability analyses and risk assessment:general (the risk concept; the types of reliability and risk analysis; the present state and trends of a probabilistic approach in safety analysis); risk analysis, partial contributor in the acceptability-problem (the political scene; technological society; cost effectiveness of risk reduction, cost-risk-benefit balancing; risk perception and acceptance; comparison of energy systems); need for and limitations of quantified safety objectives. (U.K.)

  13. Pesticide Residues and Bees – A Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Bayo, Francisco; Goka, Koichi

    2014-01-01

    Bees are essential pollinators of many plants in natural ecosystems and agricultural crops alike. In recent years the decline and disappearance of bee species in the wild and the collapse of honey bee colonies have concerned ecologists and apiculturalists, who search for causes and solutions to this problem. Whilst biological factors such as viral diseases, mite and parasite infections are undoubtedly involved, it is also evident that pesticides applied to agricultural crops have a negative impact on bees. Most risk assessments have focused on direct acute exposure of bees to agrochemicals from spray drift. However, the large number of pesticide residues found in pollen and honey demand a thorough evaluation of all residual compounds so as to identify those of highest risk to bees. Using data from recent residue surveys and toxicity of pesticides to honey and bumble bees, a comprehensive evaluation of risks under current exposure conditions is presented here. Standard risk assessments are complemented with new approaches that take into account time-cumulative effects over time, especially with dietary exposures. Whilst overall risks appear to be low, our analysis indicates that residues of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid insecticides pose the highest risk by contact exposure of bees with contaminated pollen. However, the synergism of ergosterol inhibiting fungicides with those two classes of insecticides results in much higher risks in spite of the low prevalence of their combined residues. Risks by ingestion of contaminated pollen and honey are of some concern for systemic insecticides, particularly imidacloprid and thiamethoxam, chlorpyrifos and the mixtures of cyhalothrin and ergosterol inhibiting fungicides. More attention should be paid to specific residue mixtures that may result in synergistic toxicity to bees. PMID:24718419

  14. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  15. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  16. Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, D.; Pieters, Wolter; Texeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

    2016-01-01

    Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by

  17. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  18. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  19. Health impact assessment – A survey on quantifying tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [Fakultaet fuer Gesundheitswissenschaften, Universitaet Bielefeld, Universitaetsstr. 25, 33615 Bielefeld (Germany); Mekel, Odile C.L., E-mail: odile.mekel@lzg.nrw.de [Gesundheitsdaten und analysen, Versorgungsstrukturen, Landeszentrum Gesundheit Nordrhein-Westfalen (LZG.NRW), Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Fintan Hurley, J., E-mail: fintan.hurley@iom-world.org [Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM), Research Avenue North, Riccarton, Edinburgh EH14 4AP, Scotland (United Kingdom); Mackenbach, Johan P., E-mail: j.mackenbach@erasmusmc.nl [Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2016-02-15

    Integrating human health into prospective impact assessments is known to be challenging. This is true for both approaches: dedicated health impact assessments (HIA) as well as inclusion of health into more general impact assessments. Acknowledging the full range of participatory, qualitative, and quantitative approaches, this study focuses on the latter, especially on computational tools for quantitative health modelling. We conducted a survey among tool developers concerning the status quo of development and availability of such tools; experiences made with model usage in real-life situations; and priorities for further development. Responding toolmaker groups described 17 such tools, most of them being maintained and reported as ready for use and covering a wide range of topics, including risk & protective factors, exposures, policies, and health outcomes. In recent years, existing models have been improved and were applied in new ways, and completely new models emerged. There was high agreement among respondents on the need to further develop methods for assessment of inequalities and uncertainty. The contribution of quantitative modeling to health foresight would benefit from building joint strategies of further tool development, improving the visibility of quantitative tools and methods, and engaging continuously with actual and potential users. - Highlights: • A survey investigated computational tools for health impact quantification. • Formal evaluation of such tools has been rare. • Handling inequalities and uncertainties are priority areas for further development. • Health foresight would benefit from tool developers and users forming a community. • Joint development strategies across computational tools are needed.

  20. Health impact assessment – A survey on quantifying tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fehr, Rainer; Mekel, Odile C.L.; Fintan Hurley, J.; Mackenbach, Johan P.

    2016-01-01

    Integrating human health into prospective impact assessments is known to be challenging. This is true for both approaches: dedicated health impact assessments (HIA) as well as inclusion of health into more general impact assessments. Acknowledging the full range of participatory, qualitative, and quantitative approaches, this study focuses on the latter, especially on computational tools for quantitative health modelling. We conducted a survey among tool developers concerning the status quo of development and availability of such tools; experiences made with model usage in real-life situations; and priorities for further development. Responding toolmaker groups described 17 such tools, most of them being maintained and reported as ready for use and covering a wide range of topics, including risk & protective factors, exposures, policies, and health outcomes. In recent years, existing models have been improved and were applied in new ways, and completely new models emerged. There was high agreement among respondents on the need to further develop methods for assessment of inequalities and uncertainty. The contribution of quantitative modeling to health foresight would benefit from building joint strategies of further tool development, improving the visibility of quantitative tools and methods, and engaging continuously with actual and potential users. - Highlights: • A survey investigated computational tools for health impact quantification. • Formal evaluation of such tools has been rare. • Handling inequalities and uncertainties are priority areas for further development. • Health foresight would benefit from tool developers and users forming a community. • Joint development strategies across computational tools are needed.

  1. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  2. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  3. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  4. Risk aversion in medical decision making: a survey

    OpenAIRE

    Liliana Chicaíza; Mario García; Giancarlo Romano

    2011-01-01

    This article surveys the literature on risk aversion in medical decision making. The search covered Econlit, Jstor Science Direct and Springer Link since 1985. The results are classified in three topics: Risk aversion in the frameworks of Expected Utility and Rank Dependent Expected Utility theories, and the methodologies for measuring risk aversion and its applications to clinical situations from the points of view of economics and psychology. It was found that, despite conceptual and method...

  5. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  7. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  8. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  9. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  10. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  11. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  12. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  13. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  14. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  15. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  16. [Prevalence survey of cardiovascular risk factors in the general population in St. Louis (Senegal)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pessinaba, S; Mbaye, A; Yabéta, G A D; Harouna, H; Sib, A E; Kane, A D; Bodian, M; Ndiaye, M B; Mbaye-Ndour, M; Niang, K; Diagne-Sow, D; Diack, B; Kane, M; Diao, M; Mathieu, J-B S; Kane, A

    2013-08-01

    Cardiovascular diseases are becoming with their risk factors a real health problem in Africa. The objectives of this study were to assess the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the general population in Saint-Louis, Senegal. This is a cross-sectional, descriptive and analytical made in May 2010, in the Senegalese aged 15, residing in the city of Saint-Louis, Senegal. A systematic random sampling and stratified cluster has been achieved. Cardiovascular risk factors for research were: hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking, obesity, physical inactivity and metabolic syndrome. The survey involved 1424 individuals with 983 women (69%). The average age was 43.4±17.8years. The prevalence of risk factors was: hypertension (46%), diabetes (10.4%), total cholesterol (36.3%), hyperLDLcholesterol (20.6%), obesity (body mass index≥30kg/m(2)) (23%), abdominal obesity (48.7% according to International Diabetes Federation and 33.2% according to National Cholesterol Education Program) physical inactivity (64.7%), smoking (5.8%) and metabolic syndrome (15.7%). There was predominance in women of risk factors except for smoking and diabetes. The overall cardiovascular risk was high in 24.9% according to the Framingham model, 28.8% (European Society of Hypertension) and 6.1% (SCORE). This survey found a high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a general population in Senegal, predominant in women. This should lead to better develop a strategy to prevent cardiovascular diseases. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  17. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  18. Outage Risk Assessment and Management (ORAM) technology to improve outage safety and economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalra, S.P.

    2004-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has undertaken an aggressive program, called ORAM (Outage Risk Assessment and Management), to provide utilities with tools and technology to assist in managing risk during the planning and conduct of outages. The ORAM program consists of the following 6 steps: i) Perform utility surveys and visits on shutdown risk management needs, ii) Perform probabilistic shutdown safety assessments (PSSAs) to identify generic insights that can be incorporated into risk management guidelines and identify selected areas for the development of contingency actions, iii) Develop risk management guidelines (RMG's) that provide a systematic approach to the planning and conduct of outages from a safety perspective. Incorporate insights from the shutdown safety assessments and other operating experience into the RMG's. iv) Develop selected contingency actions including a thermalhydraulic tool kit to address higher risk time periods and activities identified in the shutdown safety assessments, v) Develop computer software that integrates all of the above capability into an easy to use tool for effective shutdown operation management for utilities, vi) Provide assistance in the transfer of this technology and the application of these tools. This paper briefly describes the technical approach and tools developed under EPRI's ORAM program and its applications for improving outage safety and economics. (author)

  19. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  20. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  1. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  2. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  3. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  4. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  5. The Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk: State of Workshop Education

    OpenAIRE

    Pisani, Anthony R.; Cross, Wendi F.; Gould, Madelyn S.

    2011-01-01

    A systematic search of popular and scholarly databases identified workshops that addressed general clinical competence in the assessment or management of suicide risk, targeted mental health professionals, and had at least one peerreviewed publication. We surveyed workshop developers and examined empirical articles associated with each workshop. The state of workshop education is characterized by presenting the learning objectives, educational formats, instructor factors, and evaluation studi...

  6. [Screening for the risk of allergy and prevention in French maternity units: A survey].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chouraqui, J-P; Simeoni, U; Tohier, C; Nguyen, F; Kempf, C; Beck, L; Lachambre, E

    2015-09-01

    Allergy has been on the rise for half a century and concerns nearly 30% of children; it has now become a real public health problem. The guidelines on prevention of allergy set up by the French Society of Paediatrics (SFP) and the European Society of Paediatric Allergology and Clinical Immunology (ESPACI) are based on screening children at risk through a systematic search of the family history and recommend, for children at risk, exclusive breastfeeding whenever possible or otherwise utilization of hypoallergenic infant formula, which has demonstrated efficacy. The AllerNaiss practice survey assessed the modes of screening and prevention of allergy in French maternity units in 2012. The SFP guidelines are known by 82% of the maternity units that took part in the survey, and the ESPACI guidelines by 55% of them. A screening strategy is in place in 59% of the participating maternity wards, based on local consensus for 36% of them, 13% of the units having a written screening procedure. Screening is based on the search for a history of allergy in first-degree relatives (99%) during pregnancy (51%), in the delivery room (50%), and after delivery (89%). A mode of prevention of the risk of allergy exists in 62% of the maternity units, most often in writing (49%). A hypoallergenic infant formula is prescribed for non-breastfed children in 90% of the units. The survey shows that there is a real need for formalization of allergy risk screening and prevention of allergy in newborns in French maternity units. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  7. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  8. Inspection surveys of x-ray inspection systems: results of five years and implications on future management of radiation risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maharaj, H.P.

    1999-01-01

    Until the mid-1980s, federal inspectors performed radiation surveys annually on individual x-ray inspection systems which were operated for security screening purposes in federal facilities nationwide, and problems identified were corrected. The surveys were undertaken because of perceived high radiation risks and a need to ensure worker and public external exposures were minimized. The x-ray inspection systems are federally regulated under the Radiation Emitting Devices (RED) Act and, initially they were assessed by model type against the design, construction and performance criteria specified in the applicable RED regulations (Schedule II, Part IV) and were found compliant. A subsequent study not only demonstrated a much lower radiation risk attributed to a combination of technological advances in x-ray system design with narrow primary beams, high efficiency detectors and image processing capability, but also stressed the need for proper equipment maintenance and continued education of operators and maintenance personnel. Survey frequency was thus reduced to once every 2-3 years in accordance with a 1993 federal operational standard (Safety Code 29). The radiation protection principles in Safety Code 29 are similar to those of the 1996 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Basic Safety Standards for the protection against ionizing radiation and the safety of radiation sources. The purpose of this study was to assess inspection-survey data from 1993 through 1997 to elicit guidance toward the future management of radiation risks associated with the operation of such x-ray systems. (author)

  9. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  10. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  11. Construction of a risk assessment system for chemical residues in agricultural products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Shinai; Hong, Jiyeon; Lee, Dayeon; Paik, Minkyoung

    2014-01-01

    Continuous monitoring of chemical residues in agricultural and food products has been performed by various government bodies in South Korea. These bodies have made attempts to systematically manage this information by creating a monitoring database system as well as a system based on these data with which to assess the health risk of chemical residues in agricultural products. Meanwhile, a database system is being constructed consisting of information about monitoring and, following this, a demand for convenience has led to the need for an evaluation tool to be constructed with the data processing system. Also, in order to create a systematic and effective tool for the risk assessment of chemical residues in foods and agricultural products, various evaluation models are being developed, both domestically and abroad. Overseas, systems such as Dietary Exposure Evaluation Model: Food Commodity Intake Database and Cumulative and Aggregate Risk Evaluation System are being used; these use the US Environmental Protection Agency as a focus, while the EU has developed Pesticide Residue Intake Model for assessments of pesticide exposure through food intake. Following this, the National Academy of Agricultural Science (NAAS) created the Agricultural Products Risk Assessment System (APRAS) which supports the use and storage of monitoring information and risk assessments. APRAS efficiently manages the monitoring data produced by NAAS and creates an extraction feature included in the database system. Also, the database system in APRAS consists of a monitoring database system held by the NAAS and food consumption database system. Food consumption data is based on Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. This system is aimed at exposure and risk assessments for chemical residues in agricultural products with regards to different exposure scenarios.

  12. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  13. Risk assessment of fall-related occupational accidents in the workplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsukada, Tsukimi; Sakakibara, Hisataka

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: This study aimed to examine effective assessment methods of falls in the workplace. Methods: There were 436 employees (305 males and 131 females) of electrical appliance manufacturers included in this study. In 2014, a baseline survey was conducted using the fall scores questionnaire and the self-check risk assessment of falls and other accidents in the workplace (physical function measurement and questionnaire). In 2015, the occurrence of falls in the past year was investigated. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to examine factors relevant to falls. Results: In total, 62 subjects (14.2%) fell during the year, including those who fell during off-hours. The occurrence of falls during that one year was only associated with having experienced falls during the past year in the baseline survey (odds ratio [OR] 5.0; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5-9.7). Falls during that year were also related to the inability to walk 1 km continuously (OR 0.1; 95% CI 0.1-0.6), tripping sometimes (OR 4.0; 95% CI 1.6-9.9), step height differences at home (OR 3.0; 95% CI 1.3-6.8), and working in the production section (OR 0.2; 95% CI 0.1-0.5). Measurements of physical functions, such as muscle strength, balance, and agility, were not different between subjects who fell and those who did not. Conclusions: Our results showed that the questionnaire assessing falls during the past year could be useful to assess the risk of falls in the workplace. Annual checks for falls may contribute to fall prevention programs in the workplace. PMID:27725487

  14. Survey of Biomass Resource Assessments and Assessment Capabilities in APEC Economies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milbrandt, A.; Overend, R. P

    2008-11-01

    This survey of biomass resource assessments and assessment capabilities in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies considered various sources: academic and government publications, media reports, and personal communication with contacts in member economies.

  15. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  16. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. J. Bos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  17. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  18. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  19. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  20. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  1. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  2. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  3. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  4. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  5. Interest in genomic SNP testing for prostate cancer risk: a pilot survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Michael J; Ruth, Karen J; Chen, David Yt; Gross, Laura M; Giri, Veda N

    2015-01-01

    Advancements in genomic testing have led to the identification of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with prostate cancer. The clinical utility of SNP tests to evaluate prostate cancer risk is unclear. Studies have not examined predictors of interest in novel genomic SNP tests for prostate cancer risk in a diverse population. Consecutive participants in the Fox Chase Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program (PRAP) (n = 40) and unselected men from surgical urology clinics (n = 40) completed a one-time survey. Items examined interest in genomic SNP testing for prostate cancer risk, knowledge, impact of unsolicited findings, and psychosocial factors including health literacy. Knowledge of genomic SNP tests was low in both groups, but interest was higher among PRAP men (p testing in both groups. Multivariable modeling identified several predictors of higher interest in a genomic SNP test including higher perceived risk (p = 0.025), indicating zero reasons for not wanting testing (vs ≥1 reason) (p = 0.013), and higher health literacy (p = 0.016). Knowledge of genomic SNP testing was low in this sample, but higher among high-risk men. High-risk status may increase interest in novel genomic tests, while low literacy may lessen interest.

  6. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  7. Survey of Tsuruga inhabitants concerning radiation and its risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Yamano, Naoki

    2015-01-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident has led to changes in the acceptance of nuclear power in many people. The authors conducted an opinion survey of 300 adult inhabitants of Tsuruga city in Fukui prefecture, Japan. The aim of this survey is to obtain people's opinions concerning radiation and its risks. Authors classified Tsuruga inhabitants on the basis of responses to questions on the concept and knowledge of risk and the cognition of radiation by factor and cluster analyses of multivariable analysis. Using the results of these analyses, Tsuruga inhabitants have been assigned to five categories: “acceptance group,” “anxiety group,” and three intermediate groups. (author)

  8. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  9. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  10. Acrylamide in Romanian food using HPLC-UV and a health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oroian, Mircea; Amariei, Sonia; Gutt, Gheorghe

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the level of acrylamide from coffee, potato chips and French fries in Romanian food. According to the European Food Safety Authority, coffee beans, potato chips and French fries have the highest levels of acrylamide. For this survey, 50 samples of coffee beans, 50 samples of potato chips and 25 samples of French fries were purchased from different producers from the Romanian market. Acrylamide levels have been quantified using high-performance liquid chromatography with a diode array detector (HPLC-DAD) method, using water as mobile phase. Health risk assessment was achieved by computing the average daily intake, hazard quotient, cumulative risk, carcinogenic risk and cancer risk. For coffee, potato chips and French fries, acrylamide was not shown to pose a health risk in Romanian food.

  11. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  12. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  13. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  14. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  15. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  16. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  17. Risk assessment to an integrated planning model for UST programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, K.W.

    1993-01-01

    The US Postal Service maintains the largest civilian fleet in the United States totaling approximately 180,000 vehicles. To support the fleets daily energy requirements, the Postal Service also operates one of the largest networks of underground storage tanks nearly 7,500 nationwide. A program to apply risk assessment to planning, budget development and other management actions was implemented during September, 1989. Working closely with a consultant, the postal service developed regulatory and environmental risk criteria and weighting factors for a ranking model. The primary objective was to identify relative risks for each underground tank at individual facilities. Relative risks at each facility were determined central to prioritizing scheduled improvements to the tank network. The survey was conducted on 302 underground tanks in the Northeast Region of the US. An environmental and regulatory risk score was computed for each UST. By ranking the tanks according to their risk score, tanks were classified into management action categories including, but the limited to, underground tank testing, retrofit, repair, replacement and closure

  18. Lessons learned from first generation nuclear plant probabalistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1984-01-01

    The paper by Garrick summarizes the state-of-the-art in what are perhaps the most archetypical probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Because of its unique regulatory environment and because of the high levels of perceived (not necessarily actual) risk, the nuclear industry more than any other has been concerned with quantitative risk analysis. Garrick's paper summarizes the lessons learned from ten PRA's conducted in the nuclear industry, including six that can be characterized as full-scope risk studies. Most of the quantitative data, though, came from two especially thorough studies done for the Zion and Indian Point power plants, operated by Commonwealth Edison and Consolidated Edison respectively. The principal conclusions of the Garrick survey are that the public risk (from radiation release) is now known to be very small for commercial nuclear power plants, but that the risk to utilities (from core damage) is somewhat larger. Significant radiation releases require both core meltdown -- an event occurring only about once every 10,000 reactor-years -- and containment failure, occurring only about once in every hundred meltdowns

  19. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  20. Perceived Preparedness of Health Care Students for Providing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Zolezzi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Early assessment and management of risk factors is known to have significant impact in preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD and its associated burden. Cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management (CVDRAM is best approached by teamwork across health care professionals. This study aimed at assessing health care students’ (HCSs knowledge about the parameters needed for estimating CVD risk, their self-assessed preparedness/confidence and perceived barriers for the provision of CVDRAM services through a survey administered to third and fourth year pharmacy, medical, and nursing students in Qatar. Although all student cohorst achieved similar knowledge scores, less than half (n = 38, 47% were able to identify all of the six main risk factors necessary to estimate absolute CVD risk, and a third (32% were unable to identify total cholesterol as an independent risk factor necessary to estimate CVD risk. Training on the use of CVD risk assessment tools differed among the three student cohorts. All student cohorts also perceived similar levels of preparedness in CVDRAM. However, pharmacy students reported the highest preparedness/confidence with the use of the latest CVDRAM guidelines. The majority of statements listed under the barriers scale were perceived by the students as being moderate (median score = 3. Poor public acceptance or unawareness of importance of estimating CVD risk was the only barrier perceived as major by nursing students. Future integration of interprofessional educational (IPE activities in the CVDRAM curricula of HCSs may be a suitable strategy to minimize barriers and foster collaborative practice for the provision of CVDRAM services in Qatar.

  1. Perceived Preparedness of Health Care Students for Providing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolezzi, Monica; Abdallah, Oraib; Aden, Suad; Major, Stella; White, Diana; El-Awaisi, Alla

    2017-02-21

    Early assessment and management of risk factors is known to have significant impact in preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its associated burden. Cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management (CVDRAM) is best approached by teamwork across health care professionals. This study aimed at assessing health care students' (HCSs) knowledge about the parameters needed for estimating CVD risk, their self-assessed preparedness/confidence and perceived barriers for the provision of CVDRAM services through a survey administered to third and fourth year pharmacy, medical, and nursing students in Qatar. Although all student cohorts achieved similar knowledge scores, less than half ( n = 38, 47%) were able to identify all of the six main risk factors necessary to estimate absolute CVD risk, and a third (32%) were unable to identify total cholesterol as an independent risk factor necessary to estimate CVD risk. Training on the use of CVD risk assessment tools differed among the three student cohorts. All student cohorts also perceived similar levels of preparedness in CVDRAM. However, pharmacy students reported the highest preparedness/confidence with the use of the latest CVDRAM guidelines. The majority of statements listed under the barriers scale were perceived by the students as being moderate (median score = 3). Poor public acceptance or unawareness of importance of estimating CVD risk was the only barrier perceived as a major by nursing students. Future integration of interprofessional educational (IPE) activities in the CVDRAM curricula of HCSs may be a suitable strategy to minimize barriers and foster collaborative practice for the provision of CVDRAM services in Qatar.

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  3. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  4. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  5. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  6. 2017 Emerging Technology Domains Risk Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    REV-03.18.2016.0 2017 Emerging Technology Domains Risk Survey Daniel Klinedinst Joel Land Kyle O’Meara October 2017 TECHNICAL REPORT CMU/SEI...Distribution Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is Unlimited. List of Tables Table 1: New and Emerging Technologies 2 Table 2: Security...Impact of New and Emerging Technologies 4 Table 3: Severity Classifications and Impact Scores 5 CMU/SEI-2017-TR-008 | SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

  7. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  8. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  9. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  10. Assessment of the risk of transporting uranium hexafluoride by truck and train

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geffen, C.A.; Johnson, J.F.; Davis, D.K.; Friley, J.R.; Ross, B.A.

    1978-08-01

    This report is the fifth in a series of studies of the risk of transporting potentially hazardous energy materials. The report presents an assessment of the risk of shipping uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) by truck and rail. The general risk assessment methodology, summarized in Section 3, used in this study is that developed for the first study in this series. The assessment includes the risks from release of uranium hexafluoride during truck or rail transport due to transportation accidents. The contribution to the risk of deteriorated or faulty packaging during normal transport was also considered. The report is sectioned to correspond to the specific analysis steps of the risk assessment model. The transportation system and accident environment are described in Sections 4 and 5. Calculation of the response of the shipping system to forces produced in transportation accidents are presented in Section 6 and the results of a survey to determine the condition of the package during transport are presented in Section 7. Sequences of events that could lead to a release of radioactive material from the shipping cask during transportation are postulated in Section 8 using fault tree analysis. These release sequences are evaluated in Sections 9 through 11, to determine both the likelihood and the possible consequences of each release. Supportive data and analyses are given in the appendices. The results of the risk assessment have been related to the year 1985, when it is projected that 100 GW of electric power will be generated annually by nuclear power plants. It was estimated that approximately 46,000 metric tons (MT) of natural UF 6 and 14,600 MT of enriched UF 6 would be shipped in the reference year

  11. Atherogenic Risk Assessment among Persons Living in Rural Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Wekesa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Hypertension and dyslipidemia are independent risk factors for coronary heart disease and commonly coexist. Cardiovascular risk can be reliably predicted using lipid ratios such as the atherogenic index, a useful prognostic parameter for guiding timely interventions. Objective. We assessed the cardiovascular risk profile based on the atherogenic index of residents within a rural Ugandan cohort. Methods. In 2011, a population based survey was conducted among 7507 participants. Sociodemographic characteristics, physical measurements (blood pressure, weight, height, and waist and hip circumference, and blood sampling for nonfasting lipid profile were collected for each participant. Atherogenic risk profile, defined as logarithm base ten of (triglyceride divided by high density lipoprotein cholesterol, was categorised as low risk (0.24. Results. Fifty-five percent of participants were female and the mean age was 49.9 years (SD±20.2. Forty-two percent of participants had high and intermediate atherogenic risk. Persons with hypertension, untreated HIV infection, abnormal glycaemia, and obesity and living in less urbanised villages were more at risk. Conclusion. A significant proportion of persons in this rural population are at risk of atherosclerosis. Key identified populations at risk should be considered for future intervention against cardiovascular related morbidity and mortality. The study however used parameters from unfasted samples that may have a bearing on observed results.

  12. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  13. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  14. Evaluating a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback: what does an expert focus group yield compared to a web-based end-user survey?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosbergen, Sandra; Mahieu, Guy R; Laan, Eva K; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A; Jaspers, Monique Wm; Peek, Niels

    2014-01-02

    Increasingly, Web-based health applications are developed for the prevention and management of chronic diseases. However, their reach and utilization is often disappointing. Qualitative evaluations post-implementation can be used to inform the optimization process and ultimately enhance their adoption. In current practice, such evaluations are mainly performed with end-user surveys. However, a review approach by experts in a focus group may be easier to administer and might provide similar results. The aim of this study was to assess whether industrial design engineers in a focus group would address the same issues as end users in a Web-based survey when evaluating a commercial Web-based health risk assessment (HRA) with tailored feedback. Seven Dutch companies used the HRA as part of their corporate health management strategy. Employees using the HRA (N=2289) and 10 independent industrial designers were invited to participate in the study. The HRA consisted of four components: (1) an electronic health questionnaire, (2) biometric measurements, (3) laboratory evaluation, and (4) individually tailored feedback generated by decision support software. After participating in the HRA as end users, both end users and designers evaluated the program. End users completed an evaluation questionnaire that included a free-text field. Designers participated in a focus group discussion. Constructs from user satisfaction and technology acceptance theories were used to categorize and compare the remarks from both evaluations. We assessed and qualitatively analyzed 294 remarks of 189 end users and 337 remarks of 6 industrial designers, pertaining to 295 issues in total. Of those, 137 issues were addressed in the end-user survey and 148 issues in the designer focus group. Only 7.3% (10/137) of the issues addressed in the survey were also addressed in the focus group. End users made more remarks about the usefulness of the HRA and prior expectations that were not met. Designers made

  15. Measuring children's self-reported sport participation, risk perception and injury history: development and validation of a survey instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siesmaa, Emma J; Blitvich, Jennifer D; White, Peta E; Finch, Caroline F

    2011-01-01

    Despite the health benefits associated with children's sport participation, the occurrence of injury in this context is common. The extent to which sport injuries impact children's ongoing involvement in sport is largely unknown. Surveys have been shown to be useful for collecting children's injury and sport participation data; however, there are currently no published instruments which investigate the impact of injury on children's sport participation. This study describes the processes undertaken to assess the validity of two survey instruments for collecting self-reported information about child cricket and netball related participation, injury history and injury risk perceptions, as well as the reliability of the cricket-specific version. Face and content validity were assessed through expert feedback from primary and secondary level teachers and from representatives of peak sporting bodies for cricket and netball. Test-retest reliability was measured using a sample of 59 child cricketers who completed the survey on two occasions, 3-4 weeks apart. Based on expert feedback relating to face and content validity, modification and/or deletion of some survey items was undertaken. Survey items with low test-retest reliability (κ≤0.40) were modified or deleted, items with moderate reliability (κ=0.41-0.60) were modified slightly and items with higher reliability (κ≥0.61) were retained, with some undergoing minor modifications. This is the first survey of its kind which has been successfully administered to cricketers aged 10-16 years to collect information about injury risk perceptions and intentions for continued sport participation. Implications for its generalisation to other child sport participants are discussed. Copyright © 2010 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  17. Feasibility of ecological momentary assessment to study mood and risk behavior among young people who inject drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackesy-Amiti, Mary E; Boodram, Basmattee

    2018-04-16

    To test the acceptability and feasibility of ecological momentary assessment (EMA) of mood and injection risk behavior among young people who inject drugs (PWID), using mobile phones. Participants were 185 PWID age 18-35 recruited from two sites of a large syringe service program in Chicago. After completing a baseline interview, participants used a mobile phone app to respond to momentary surveys on mood, substance use, and injection risk behavior for 15 days. Participants were assigned to receive surveys 4, 5, or 6 times per day. Participants were 68% male, 61% non-Hispanic white, 24% Hispanic, and 5% non-Hispanic Black. Out of 185 participants, 8% (n = 15) failed to complete any EMA assessments. Among 170 EMA responders, the mean number of days reporting was 10 (SD 4.7), the mean proportion of assessments completed was 0.43 (SD 0.27), and 76% (n = 130) completed the follow-up interview. In analyses adjusted for age and race/ethnicity, women were more responsive than men to the EMA surveys in days reporting (IRR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.13-1.56), and total number of surveys completed (IRR = 1.51, 95% CI 1.18-1.93). Homeless participants responded on fewer days (IRR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.64-0.90) and completed fewer surveys (IRR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.54-0.91), and were less likely to return for follow-up (p = 0.016). EMA responsiveness was not significantly affected by the number of assigned daily assessments. This study demonstrated high acceptability and feasibility of EMA among young PWID, with up to 6 survey prompts per day. However, homelessness significantly hampered successful participation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  19. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  20. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  1. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  2. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  3. Burnout risk in medical students in Spain using the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Student Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galán, Fernando; Sanmartín, Arturo; Polo, Juan; Giner, Lucas

    2011-04-01

    It is questionable whether the Maslach Burnout is suitable for studying burnout prevalence in preclinical medical students because many questions are patient-centered and the students have little or no contact with patients. Among factors associated with burnout in medical students, the gender shows conflicting results. The first aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of the risk of burnout in medical students in preclinical and clinical years of training, using the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Student Survey, specifically designed and validated to assess the burnout in university students, and secondly, to investigate the association between gender and burnout subscales. A cross-sectional study was carried out in a sample of 270 Spanish medical students-176 (65%) in the third year and 94 (35%) in the sixth year of training-using the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Student Survey questionnaire. Internal consistencies (Cronbach's alpha) for the three subscales on the whole sample were as follows: for exhaustion 0.78, cynicism 0.78, and efficacy 0.71. Moreover, the prevalence of burnout risk was significantly higher in sixth-year students 35 (37.5%) compared with students in third year of training 26 (14.8%) (χ(2) test, p burnout subscales. The Maslach Burnout Inventory-Student Survey overcame difficulties encountered when students have little or no contact with patients. Our findings show that the risk of burnout prevalence doubled from the third year to sixth year of training and that gender was not significantly associated with any of the subscales of burnout.

  4. Construction of a Risk Assessment Model for Rainfall-Induced Landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chung

    2013-04-01

    The unstable geology and steep terrain in the mountainous regions of Taiwan make these areas vulnerable to landslides and debris flow during typhoons and heavy rains. According to the Water Resources Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs of Taiwan, there were 500 typhoons and over one thousand storms in Taiwan between 1897 and 2011. Natural disasters caused 3.5 billion USD of damage between 1983 and 2011. Thus, the construction of risk assessment model for landslides is essential to disaster prevention. This study employed genetic adaptive neural networks (GANN) with texture analysis in the classification of high-resolution satellite images from which data related to surface conditions in mountainous areas of Taiwan were derived. Ten landslide hazard potential factors are included: slope, geology, elevation, distance from the fault, distance from water, terrain roughness, slope roughness, effective accumulated rainfall and developing situation. By using correlation test, GANN, weight analysis and dangerous value method, levels and probabilities of landslide of the research areas are presented. Then, through geographic information system the landslide potential map is plotted to distinguish high potential regions from low potential regions. Through field surveys, interviews with district officials and a review of relevant literature, the probability of a sediment disaster was estimated as well as the vulnerability of the villages concerned and the degree to which these villages were prepared, to construct a risk evaluation model. The regional risk map was plotted with the help of GIS and the landslide assessment model. The risk assessment model can be used by authorities to make provisions for high-risk areas, to reduce the number of casualties and social costs of sediment disasters.

  5. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  6. Atlantic Marine Mammal Assessment Vessel Surveys

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data sets are a compilation of large vessel surveys for marine mammal stock assessments in South Atlantic (Florida to Maryland) waters from 1994 to the...

  7. Associations between Film Preferences and Risk Factors for Suicide: An Online Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Till, Benedikt; Tran, Ulrich S.; Voracek, Martin; Sonneck, Gernot; Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Several studies indicate that exposure to suicide in movies is linked to subsequent imitative suicidal behavior, so-called copycat suicides, but little is currently known about whether the link between exposure to suicidal movies and suicidality is reflected in individual film preferences. 943 individuals participated in an online survey. We assessed associations between preferred film genres as well as individual exposure to and rating of 50 pre-selected films (including 25 featuring a suicide) with suicidal ideation, hopelessness, depression, life satisfaction, and psychoticism. Multiple regression analyses showed that preferences for film noir movies and milieu dramas were associated with higher scores on suicidal ideation, depression and psychoticism, and low scores on life satisfaction. Furthermore, preferences for thrillers and horror movies as well as preferences for tragicomedies, tragedies and melodramas were associated with higher scores of some of the suicide risk factors. There was also a dose-response relationship between positive rating of suicide films and higher life satisfaction. Due to the cross-sectional design of the study causality cannot be assessed. Individual film genre preferences seem to reflect risk factors of suicide, with film genres focusing on sad contents being preferred by individuals with higher scores on suicide risk factors. However, suicide movies are more enjoyed by viewers with higher life satisfaction, which may reflect a better ability to cope with such content. PMID:25028966

  8. Associations between film preferences and risk factors for suicide: an online survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benedikt Till

    Full Text Available Several studies indicate that exposure to suicide in movies is linked to subsequent imitative suicidal behavior, so-called copycat suicides, but little is currently known about whether the link between exposure to suicidal movies and suicidality is reflected in individual film preferences. 943 individuals participated in an online survey. We assessed associations between preferred film genres as well as individual exposure to and rating of 50 pre-selected films (including 25 featuring a suicide with suicidal ideation, hopelessness, depression, life satisfaction, and psychoticism. Multiple regression analyses showed that preferences for film noir movies and milieu dramas were associated with higher scores on suicidal ideation, depression and psychoticism, and low scores on life satisfaction. Furthermore, preferences for thrillers and horror movies as well as preferences for tragicomedies, tragedies and melodramas were associated with higher scores of some of the suicide risk factors. There was also a dose-response relationship between positive rating of suicide films and higher life satisfaction. Due to the cross-sectional design of the study causality cannot be assessed. Individual film genre preferences seem to reflect risk factors of suicide, with film genres focusing on sad contents being preferred by individuals with higher scores on suicide risk factors. However, suicide movies are more enjoyed by viewers with higher life satisfaction, which may reflect a better ability to cope with such content.

  9. Associations between film preferences and risk factors for suicide: an online survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Till, Benedikt; Tran, Ulrich S; Voracek, Martin; Sonneck, Gernot; Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Several studies indicate that exposure to suicide in movies is linked to subsequent imitative suicidal behavior, so-called copycat suicides, but little is currently known about whether the link between exposure to suicidal movies and suicidality is reflected in individual film preferences. 943 individuals participated in an online survey. We assessed associations between preferred film genres as well as individual exposure to and rating of 50 pre-selected films (including 25 featuring a suicide) with suicidal ideation, hopelessness, depression, life satisfaction, and psychoticism. Multiple regression analyses showed that preferences for film noir movies and milieu dramas were associated with higher scores on suicidal ideation, depression and psychoticism, and low scores on life satisfaction. Furthermore, preferences for thrillers and horror movies as well as preferences for tragicomedies, tragedies and melodramas were associated with higher scores of some of the suicide risk factors. There was also a dose-response relationship between positive rating of suicide films and higher life satisfaction. Due to the cross-sectional design of the study causality cannot be assessed. Individual film genre preferences seem to reflect risk factors of suicide, with film genres focusing on sad contents being preferred by individuals with higher scores on suicide risk factors. However, suicide movies are more enjoyed by viewers with higher life satisfaction, which may reflect a better ability to cope with such content.

  10. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  11. How human brucellosis incidence in urban Kampala can be reduced most efficiently? A stochastic risk assessment of informally-marketed milk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kohei Makita

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In Kampala, Uganda, studies have shown a significant incidence of human brucellosis. A stochastic risk assessment involving two field surveys (cattle farms and milk shops and a medical record survey was conducted to assess the risk of human brucellosis infection through consumption of informally marketed raw milk potentially infected with Brucella abortus in Kampala and to identify the best control options.In the cattle farm survey, sera of 425 cows in 177 herds in the Kampala economic zone were sampled and tested for brucellosis using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (CELISA. Farmers were interviewed for dairy information. In the milk shop surveys, 135 milk sellers in the urban areas were interviewed and 117 milk samples were collected and tested using an indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (IELISA. A medical record survey was conducted in Mulago National Referral Hospital for serological test results. A risk model was developed synthesizing data from these three surveys. Possible control options were prepared based on the model and the reduction of risk was simulated for each scenario. Overall, 12.6% (6.8-18.9: 90%CI of informally marketed milk in urban Kampala was contaminated with B.abortus at purchase and the annual incidence rate was estimated to be 5.8 (90% CI: 5.3-6.2 per 10,000 people. The best control option would be the construction of a milk boiling centre either in Mbarara, the largest source of milk, or in peri-urban Kampala and to ensure that milk traders always sell milk to the boiling centre; 90% success in enforcing these two options would reduce risk by 47.4% (21.6-70.1: 90%CI and 82.0% (71.0-89.0: 90%CI, respectively.This study quantifies the risk of human brucellosis infection through informally marketed milk and estimates the incidence rate in Kampala for the first time; risk-based mitigation strategies are outlined to assist in developing policy.

  12. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  13. Ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediment and human health risk assessment of heavy metals in fishes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yi Yujun [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Yang Zhifeng, E-mail: zfyang@bnu.edu.cn [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Zhang Shanghong [Renewable Energy School, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China)

    2011-10-15

    The concentrations of heavy metals (Cr, Cd, Hg, Cu, Zn, Pb and As) in the water, sediment, and fish were investigated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China. Potential ecological risk analysis of sediment heavy metal concentrations indicated that six sites in the middle reach, half of the sites in the lower reach, and two sites in lakes, posed moderate or considerable ecological risk. Health risk analysis of individual heavy metals in fish tissue indicated safe levels for the general population and for fisherman but, in combination, there was a possible risk in terms of total target hazard quotients. Correlation analysis and PCA found that heavy metals (Hg, Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu, and Zn) may be mainly derived from metal processing, electroplating industries, industrial wastewater, and domestic sewage. Hg may also originate from coal combustion. Significant positive correlations between TN and As were observed. - Highlights: > Field survey, test and relationship of the concentrations of heavy metals in the water, sediment, and fish. > Potential ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediment. > Non-cancer health risk assessment of heavy metals in fish tissue. > Possible pollution source of heavy metals analyzed. - Possible ecological risk of sediment and slight non-cancer health risk of eating fish were found in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

  14. Ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediment and human health risk assessment of heavy metals in fishes in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi Yujun; Yang Zhifeng; Zhang Shanghong

    2011-01-01

    The concentrations of heavy metals (Cr, Cd, Hg, Cu, Zn, Pb and As) in the water, sediment, and fish were investigated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China. Potential ecological risk analysis of sediment heavy metal concentrations indicated that six sites in the middle reach, half of the sites in the lower reach, and two sites in lakes, posed moderate or considerable ecological risk. Health risk analysis of individual heavy metals in fish tissue indicated safe levels for the general population and for fisherman but, in combination, there was a possible risk in terms of total target hazard quotients. Correlation analysis and PCA found that heavy metals (Hg, Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu, and Zn) may be mainly derived from metal processing, electroplating industries, industrial wastewater, and domestic sewage. Hg may also originate from coal combustion. Significant positive correlations between TN and As were observed. - Highlights: → Field survey, test and relationship of the concentrations of heavy metals in the water, sediment, and fish. → Potential ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediment. → Non-cancer health risk assessment of heavy metals in fish tissue. → Possible pollution source of heavy metals analyzed. - Possible ecological risk of sediment and slight non-cancer health risk of eating fish were found in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

  15. Development of Instructional Competencies for Assessing and Managing Suicide Risk for Baccalaureate Nursing Education: A Modified Delphi Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotowski, Abigail; Roye, Carol

    2017-03-01

    Suicide is a major health problem and a leading cause of death throughout the world. A primary goal for suicide prevention is reforming health professional education in order to increase the competence of health professionals in assessing and managing suicide risk. Nursing leadership is involved in this reform, yet nurses frequently lack the competence to care for patients in suicidal crisis. An identified gap in baccalaureate nursing education is instructional competencies for assessing and managing suicide risk. A modified Delphi study was used. The study began with a focus group which was conducted in order to develop the Round I Survey which included forty-four competencies. After scoring these competencies, thirty-four were scored for inclusion, two were dropped and eight were revised according to panel members' comments. The Round II Survey comprised the eight revised competencies which were scored for inclusion, resulting in forty-two competencies in the final set of instructional competencies. Forty-two instructional competencies were developed: fourteen pre-assessment instructional competencies, fifteen assessment instructional competencies, and thirteen management instructional competencies. Incorporating these instructional competencies into baccalaureate nursing education might increase the competence of nursing students, and thus new nurses, in caring for patients at risk for suicide. These instructional competencies provide a first step to address the challenging task of intervening with patients at risk for suicide.

  16. Survey of probabilistic methods in safety and risk assessment for nuclear power plant licensing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-04-01

    After an overview about the goals and general methods of probabilistic approaches in nuclear safety the main features of probabilistic safety or risk assessment (PRA) methods are discussed. Mostly in practical applications not a full-fledged PRA is applied but rather various levels of analysis leading from unavailability assessment of systems over the more complex analysis of the probable core damage stages up to the assessment of the overall health effects on the total population from a certain practice. The various types of application are discussed in relation to their limitation and benefits for different stages of design or operation of nuclear power plants. This gives guidance for licensing staff to judge the usefulness of the various methods for their licensing decisions. Examples of the application of probabilistic methods in several countries are given. Two appendices on reliability analysis and on containment and consequence analysis provide some more details on these subjects. (author)

  17. Integrated framework for the external cost assessment of nuclear power plant accident considering risk aversion: The Korean case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    Recently, the estimation of accident costs within the social costs of nuclear power plants (NPPs) has garnered substantial interest. In particular, the risk aversion behavior of the public toward an NPP accident is considered an important factor when integrating risk aversion into NPP accident cost. In this study, an integrated framework for the external cost assessment of NPP accident that measures the value of statistical life (VSL) and the relative risk aversion (RRA) coefficient for NPP accident based on an individual-level survey is proposed. To derive the willingness to pay and the RRA coefficient for NPP accident risks, a survey was conducted on a sample of 1550 individuals in Korea. The estimation obtained a mean VSL of USD 2.78 million and an RRA coefficient of 1.315. Based on the estimation results in which various cost factors were considered, a multiplication factor of 5.16 and an external cost of NPP accidents of 4.39E−03 USD-cents/kW h were estimated. This study is expected to provide insight to energy policy decision-makers on analyzing the economic validity of NPP compared to other energy sources by reflecting the estimated external cost of NPP accident into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. - Highlights: •External cost assessment framework for NPP is proposed considering risk aversion. •VSL was derived from WTP for mortality risk reduction from hypothetical NPP accident. •RRA was derived to integrate public risk aversion into external cost of NPP accident. •Individual-level survey was conducted to derive WTP and RRA for NPP accident risk. •The external cost was estimated considering the direct cost factors of NPP accident.

  18. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2001-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

  19. Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT): predictive algorithm for assessing CVD risk in the community setting. A study protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taljaard, Monica; Tuna, Meltem; Bennett, Carol; Perez, Richard; Rosella, Laura; Tu, Jack V; Sanmartin, Claudia; Hennessy, Deirdre; Tanuseputro, Peter; Lebenbaum, Michael; Manuel, Douglas G

    2014-10-23

    Recent publications have called for substantial improvements in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of prediction models. Publication of study protocols, with prespecification of key aspects of the analysis plan, can help to improve transparency, increase quality and protect against increased type I error. Valid population-based risk algorithms are essential for population health planning and policy decision-making. The purpose of this study is to develop, evaluate and apply cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk algorithms for the population setting. The Ontario sample of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2001, 2003, 2005; 77,251 respondents) will be used to assess risk factors focusing on health behaviours (physical activity, diet, smoking and alcohol use). Incident CVD outcomes will be assessed through linkage to administrative healthcare databases (619,886 person-years of follow-up until 31 December 2011). Sociodemographic factors (age, sex, immigrant status, education) and mediating factors such as presence of diabetes and hypertension will be included as predictors. Algorithms will be developed using competing risks survival analysis. The analysis plan adheres to published recommendations for the development of valid prediction models to limit the risk of overfitting and improve the quality of predictions. Key considerations are fully prespecifying the predictor variables; appropriate handling of missing data; use of flexible functions for continuous predictors; and avoiding data-driven variable selection procedures. The 2007 and 2009 surveys (approximately 50,000 respondents) will be used for validation. Calibration will be assessed overall and in predefined subgroups of importance to clinicians and policymakers. This study has been approved by the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. The findings will be disseminated through professional and scientific conferences, and in peer-reviewed journals. The algorithm will be accessible

  20. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  1. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  2. Quantified reliability and risk assessment methodology in safety evaluation and licensing: survey of practice and trends in E.C. countries; partial contribution in decision making, perpective of safety goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinck, W.F.

    1982-01-01

    Quantified reliability analysis of structures and systems and the quantified risk-concept is increasingly developed and applied in safety evaluation and in the licensing/regulatory process where deterministic approaches are however still predominant. A description of the types of application and a survey of the diversified opinions and the problem areas (e.g. the validity of input data, uncertainties in consequence modelling, human factors, common mode failures, etc.) are given. The significance of quantified risk assessment and comparisons, as one of the contributors in the solution to acceptability of modern technology such as nuclear power production, is discussed. Other contributions, such as benefit assessment and cost-efficiency of risk reduction, are also put into perspective within the decision-making process and in the problem of actual acceptance of new technologies. The growing need of developing and agreeing on overall safety objectives (how safe is safe enough) is finally discussed, in the light of the increasing diversity of approaches in the interconnected areas of accident hypotheses/sequences, siting parameters and technical bases for emergency planning; the latter problem being also closely connected to decisional processes for acceptability and to actual acceptance

  3. Fire Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review of the Methodology and Functional Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parisa Moshashaei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Fire is a physical and social phenomenon that affects both individuals and the environment. Fire risk assessment is a critical part of a fire prevention program. In this process, the fire risk associated with the possibility of occurrence and severity of damage resulting from the fire is estimated and calculated. In this paper, a classification scheme and a systematic literature review are presented in order to classify and interpret the current researches on fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Based on the scheme, 93 scholarly papers from 13 journals are categorized into application areas and other categories. The application areas include the papers on the topics of environmental impact, production and industry, transportation, buildings, power industry, oil and gas industry, urban fires and other topics. Scholarly papers are also classified by (1 year of publication, (2 journal of publication, (3 year of publication and application areas and (4 authors’ nationality. The survey results show that the largest number of papers was published during the period 2010-2012 with 31 (33.33%, the most of the studies have been carried out on environmental impact (47.31%, the journal of Forest Ecology and Management had the highest percentage of articles with 26.88%. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers for easy references of fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Therefore, this work would be able to provide useful insights into the anatomy of the fire-risk assessment methods, and suggest academic researchers and experts a framework for future attempts and researches.

  4. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  5. Assessing tobacco marketing regulation implementation level in Georgia: evidence from Non Communicable Disease Risk Factors STEPS Survey Georgia 2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lela Sturua

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Tobacco use continues to be the leading cause of preventable deaths worldwide; the biggest burden of it falls on low- and middle-income countries and this trend is expected to widen further in case of inaction. The overall objective of the study is to describe and analyze the findings of the Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors STEPS Survey Georgia 2016 related to tobacco marketing regulation. Methods The current study in Georgia was a population-based STEPS survey of randomly selected adults aged 18-69 within each sex and 10-year age-group. A multi-stage cluster sample design was used to produce representative data for that age range in Georgia. A total of 5554 adults participated in the current survey. We assessed level o tobacco marketing regulation implementation in Georgia. Results Study results reported high prevalence of tobacco use in Georgian population (31.1% (95 % CI: 29.0-33.1. Study findings showed that about half of the current smokers are exposed to anti-tobacco information on TV or radio 52.3% (95% CI: 48.9 - 55.7, whereas 35.5% (95% CI: 32.2 - 38.8 reported being exposed to cigarette marketing at points of sales of tobacco products and 4.7% (95% CI: 3.2-6.1 to any cigarette promotions. Health warnings on cigarette packs was reported to be noticed by 88.7% (95% CI: 85.8-91.6 of current smokers; only 33% (95% CI: 25.4 - 40.7 of them reported having thought about quitting because of these warnings. Conclusions The prevalence of smoking in Georgia is high compared to other countries of the European Region and it is very likely that smoking related NCDs burden will increase. Stricter tobacco control policies coupled with anti-tobacco media campaigns can address this problem. Improved health warnings on tobacco packages and total ban of tobacco advertisement, promotion and sponsorship should be implemented in order to overcome prevailed tobacco industry marketing strategies.

  6. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  7. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  8. Assessment Matters: Moving beyond Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wise, Vicki L.; Barham, Mary Ann

    2012-01-01

    The August 16, 2011, "Chronicle of Higher Education" article "Want Data? Ask Students. Again and Again" by Sara Lipka posits that in higher education there is a culture of oversurveying students and too often relying on surveys as the main, or only, way of assessing the impact of programs and services on student satisfaction and learning. Because…

  9. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  10. Development of a self-assessment score for metabolic syndrome risk in non-obese Korean adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Je, Youjin; Kim, Youngyo; Park, Taeyoung

    2017-03-01

    There is a need for simple risk scores that identify individuals at high risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS). Therefore, this study was performed to develop and validate a self-assessment score for MetS risk in non-obese Korean adults. Data from the fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES IV), 2007-2009 were used to develop a MetS risk score. We included a total of 5,508 non-obese participants aged 19-64 years who were free of a self-reported diagnosis of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, stroke, angina, or cancer. Multivariable logistic regression model coefficients were used to assign each variable category a score. The validity of the score was assessed in an independent population survey performed in 2010 and 2011, KNHANES V (n=3,892). Age, BMI, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, dairy consumption, dietary habit of eating less salty and food insecurity were selected as categorical variables. The MetS risk score value varied from 0 to 13, and a cut-point MetS risk score of >=7 was selected based on the highest Youden index. The cut-point provided a sensitivity of 81%, specificity of 61%, positive predictive value of 14%, and negative predictive value of 98%, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78. Consistent results were obtained in the validation data sets. This simple risk score may be used to identify individuals at high risk for MetS without laboratory tests among non-obese Korean adults. Further studies are needed to verify the usefulness and feasibility of this score in various settings.

  11. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  12. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  13. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  14. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  15. Risk perception and priority setting for intervention among hepatitis C virus and environmental risks: a cross-sectional survey in the Cairo community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarzinger, Michaël; Mohamed, Mostafa K; Gad, Rita R; Dewedar, Sahar; Fontanet, Arnaud; Carrat, Fabrice; Luchini, Stéphane

    2010-12-20

    Hepatitis C virus (HCV) recently emerged as a major public health hazard in Egypt. However, dramatic healthcare budget constraints limit access to the costly treatment. We assessed risk perception and priority setting for intervention among HCV, unsafe water, and outdoor air pollution in Cairo city. A survey was conducted in the homes of a representative sample of household heads in Cairo city. Risk perception was assessed using the "psychometric paradigm" where health hazards are evaluated according to several attributes and then summarized by principal component analysis. Priority setting was assessed by individual ranking of interventions reducing health hazards by 50% over five years. The Condorcet method was used to aggregate individual rankings of the three interventions (main study) or two of three interventions (validation study). Explanatory factors of priority setting were explored in multivariate generalized logistic models. HCV was perceived as having the most severe consequences in terms of illness and out-of-pocket costs, while outdoor air pollution was perceived as the most uncontrollable risk. In the main study (n = 2,603), improved water supply received higher priority than both improved outdoor air quality (60.1%, P report of HCV-related diseases in the household, and perception of HCV as the most severe risk were significantly associated to setting HCV treatment as the first priority. The Cairo community prefers to further improving water supply as compared to improved outdoor air quality and screening and treatment of chronic hepatitis C.

  16. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  17. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  18. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  19. Economic assessment of landslide risks in the Swabian Alb, Germany ‒ research framework and first results of homeowners' and experts' surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Blöchl

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Landslide risks are frequently underestimated by political and economic actors as well as by the local population. The InterRisk Assess research project is working to develop a systematic approach to the analysis and evaluation of economic landslide risks at a local and regional scale. Its major aims are to determine the extent of potential damage and economic losses caused by landslides, to analyze individual and collective patterns of risk assessment and to develop recommendations for pro-active risk management. The research methodology includes GIS-based risk analyses and interviews with relevant actors in politics, administration and planning, private households and land owners. The research findings will facilitate a better-informed, efficient and sustainable use of natural resources and natural risks. The research project also aims to contribute to methodological progress in risk research.

  20. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  1. Risk perception in the public: Results of a survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastide, S.; Brenot, J.

    1989-01-01

    At first, some approaches used to study risk perception are briefly reviewed. Then, results of a survey devoted to general public risk perception, are presented. Risky activities are ranked. Clusters of activities which are judged similar for danger, are given. The relations between perception of danger, trust in the safety organization and the characteristics of the interviewed people are emphasized. The nuclear and chemical sectors are shortly compared. (author)

  2. Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, Hiromitsu

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

  3. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  4. Using Online Surveys to Promote and Assess Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Laura; Doehler, Kirsten

    2014-01-01

    This article explores the use of online survey software to collect data from students during class to efficiently use class time. Several example activities for an introductory statistics classroom are considered. We also discuss utilization of online survey software for other purposes such as collecting assessment information and student…

  5. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  6. Comparison of the large-scale radon risk map for southern Belgium with results of high resolution surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, H.-C.; Charlet, J.M.; Poffijn, A.

    2000-01-01

    A large-scale radon survey consisting of long-term measurements in about 5200 singe-family houses in the southern part of Belgium was carried from 1995 to 1999. A radon risk map for the region was produced using geostatistical and GIS approaches. Some communes or villages situated within high risk areas were chosen for detailed surveys. A high resolution radon survey with about 330 measurements was performed in half part of the commune of Burg-Reuland. Comparison of radon maps on quite different scales shows that the general Rn risk map has similar pattern as the radon map for the detailed study area. Another detailed radon survey in the village of Hatrival, situated in a high radon area, found very high proportion of houses with elevated radon concentrations. The results of this detailed survey are comparable to the expectation for high risk areas on the large-scale radon risk map. The good correspondence between the findings of the general risk map and the analysis of the limited detailed surveys, suggests that the large-scale radon risk map is likely reliable. (author)

  7. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  8. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  9. Vesuvio civil protection exercise MESIMEX: survey on volcanic risk perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tullio Ricci

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In October 2006 the European Civil Protection Exercise MESIMEX (Somma Vesuvio Mesimex – Major Emergency SIMulation Exercise on volcanic risk took place at Vesuvio, promoted by Campania Region and coordinated by the Italian Civil Protection Department. The exercise was focused on the preparedness phase for a major volcanic emergency in the area of Vesuvio. An evacuation of a sample of 1800 inhabitants from the Vesuvio Red Zone was also tested during the drill because the emergency plan ensures the complete evacuation of the population from the higher risk zone before the onset of the eruption. During that event a survey on volcanic risk perception was carried out on the evacuated population in order to compare the results with the ones coming from a previous similar survey, using the same questionnaire, carried out on a wider sample of residents in the Vesuvio Red Zone few months before MESIMEX exercise. The aim was to point out any differences in population’s attitude towards volcanic risk after having received detailed information on the emergency plan and on the hazards and risk related to the reactivation of Vesuvio, and experiencing the exercise. 463 questionnaires were distributed to the population evacuated from the 18 municipalities of the Red Zone and participating to the exercise. Main results in comparing data from MESIMEX survey with the Vesuvio previous one, put in evidence how the general level of Vesuvio residents’ trust remains quite low, indicating that a continuous and effective effort has to be done by both scientific community and Civil Protection Department. Particular attention should be paid in education and outreach activities and in involving people in risk mitigation procedures, also through more frequent exercises.

  10. A community-based cluster randomized survey of noncommunicable disease and risk factors in a peri-urban shantytown in Lima, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitzinger, Kristen; Montano, Silvia M; Hawes, Stephen E; Alarcón, Jorge O; Zunt, Joseph R

    2014-05-21

    An estimated 863 million people-a third of the world's urban population-live in slums, yet there is little information on the disease burden in these settings, particularly regarding chronic preventable diseases. From March to May 2012, we conducted a cluster randomized survey to estimate the prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and associated risk factors in a peri-urban shantytown north of Lima, Peru. Field workers administered a questionnaire that included items from the WHO World Health Survey and the WHO STEPS survey of chronic disease risk factors. We used logistic regression to assess the associations of NCDs and related risk factors with age and gender. We accounted for sampling weights and the clustered sampling design using statistical survey methods. A total of 142 adults were surveyed and had a weighted mean age of 36 years (range 18-81). The most prevalent diseases were depression (12%) and chronic respiratory disease (8%), while lifetime prevalence of cancer, arthritis, myocardial infarction, and diabetes were all less than 5%. Fifteen percent of respondents were hypertensive and the majority (67%) was unaware of their condition. Being overweight or obese was common for both genders (53%), but abdominal obesity was more prevalent in women (54% vs. 10% in men, p Peru and suggests that prevention and treatment interventions could be optimized according to age and gender.

  11. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  12. Assessing mixed anxiety-depressive disorder. A national primary care survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balestrieri, Matteo; Isola, Miriam; Quartaroli, Mauro; Roncolato, Maurizio; Bellantuono, Cesario

    2010-04-30

    Prevalence and risk factors associated with mixed anxiety-depressive disorder (MAD) have yet to be established. Using MINI 5.0.1 and HADS, a two-week survey involving 21,644 primary care patients was carried out. We found 1.8% of subjects with MAD and 20% of subjects with a co-morbid anxiety and depression (CAD) disorder. MAD patients without a past history of anxiety/affective episodes were defined as "pure MAD" (pMAD: 0.9% of the sample). While MAD patients showed a number of differences vs. the other groups of patients in the socio-demographic statistics, pMAD patients were not different, apart from a higher proportion of males vs. CAD patients. Nearly in all the comparisons, MAD and pMAD patients showed lower association with life events and with a familial predisposition than the other patients. On HADS assessment, MAD showed a higher risk of anxiety and depressive symptoms than anxiety diagnoses, a lower risk of depressive symptoms than depressive diagnoses and a lower risk of both anxiety and depressive symptoms than CAD. Since more than a half of MAD patients were classified as pMAD, the hypothesis that MAD should be viewed as a partial remission of a major depression is not entirely confirmed in our study. Copyright (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank

    2006-01-01

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences

  14. The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank [SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA

    2006-09-15

    The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences.

  15. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  16. A systematic review of childhood maltreatment assessments in population-representative surveys since 1990.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hovdestad, Wendy; Campeau, Aimée; Potter, Dawn; Tonmyr, Lil

    2015-01-01

    Population-representative surveys that assess childhood maltreatment and health are a valuable resource to explore the implications of child maltreatment for population health. Systematic identification and evaluation of such surveys is needed to facilitate optimal use of their data and to inform future research. To inform researchers of the existence and nature of population-representative surveys relevant to understanding links between childhood maltreatment and health; to evaluate the assessment of childhood maltreatment in this body of work. We included surveys that: 1) were representative of the non-institutionalized population of any size nation or of any geopolitical region ≥ 10 million people; 2) included a broad age range (≥ 40 years); 3) measured health; 4) assessed childhood maltreatment retrospectively; and 5) were conducted since 1990. We used Internet and database searching (including CINAHL, Embase, ERIC, Global Health, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Scopus, Social Policy and Practice: January 1990 to March 2014), expert consultation, and other means to identify surveys and associated documentation. Translations of non-English survey content were verified by fluent readers of survey languages. We developed checklists to abstract and evaluate childhood maltreatment content. Fifty-four surveys from 39 countries met inclusion criteria. Sample sizes ranged from 1,287-51,945 and response rates from 15%-96%. Thirteen surveys assessed neglect, 15 emotional abuse; 18 exposure to family violence; 26 physical abuse; 48 sexual abuse. Fourteen surveys assessed more than three types; six of these were conducted since 2010. In nine surveys childhood maltreatment assessments were detailed (+10 items for at least one type of maltreatment). Seven surveys' assessments had known reliability and/or validity. Data from 54 surveys can be used to explore the population health relevance of child maltreatment. Assessment of childhood maltreatment is not comprehensive but there is

  17. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  18. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  19. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  20. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  1. Risk perception and priority setting for intervention among hepatitis C virus and environmental risks: a cross-sectional survey in the Cairo community

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewedar Sahar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV recently emerged as a major public health hazard in Egypt. However, dramatic healthcare budget constraints limit access to the costly treatment. We assessed risk perception and priority setting for intervention among HCV, unsafe water, and outdoor air pollution in Cairo city. Methods A survey was conducted in the homes of a representative sample of household heads in Cairo city. Risk perception was assessed using the "psychometric paradigm" where health hazards are evaluated according to several attributes and then summarized by principal component analysis. Priority setting was assessed by individual ranking of interventions reducing health hazards by 50% over five years. The Condorcet method was used to aggregate individual rankings of the three interventions (main study or two of three interventions (validation study. Explanatory factors of priority setting were explored in multivariate generalized logistic models. Results HCV was perceived as having the most severe consequences in terms of illness and out-of-pocket costs, while outdoor air pollution was perceived as the most uncontrollable risk. In the main study (n = 2,603, improved water supply received higher priority than both improved outdoor air quality (60.1%, P P Conclusions The Cairo community prefers to further improving water supply as compared to improved outdoor air quality and screening and treatment of chronic hepatitis C.

  2. Disentangling determinants of insecticide use to manage production, food security, and health risks in Cambodia and Vietnam: evidence from household surveys and risk-assessment experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang, PhD

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Insect pest problems are among the main causes of crop yield losses in global agriculture. Insecticides protect households from food-security and income shocks, but can induce human health and environmental risks. Semi-subsistence farm households (SSFHs, which farm for both consumption and market, make decisions about crop management and output allocation to maximise food consumption, income, and health outcomes, depending on their risk preferences and other household and community characteristics. In this study, we aimed to disentangle the determinants of insecticide use by SSFHs and identify whether health consideration has had any effect on insecticide use. Methods: In this econometric analysis, we used field data collected from household surveys and risk-assessment experiments in 2014 in Cambodia and Vietnam to analyse insecticide use among more than 1000 SSFHs. Findings: We found that crops (except for rice whose outputs were used to a greater degree for consumption were less likely to be sprayed with insecticides or were sprayed fewer times. Health-conscious households (as indicated by the use of modern-fuel cooking stoves and reported concern over food safety as a main reason for maintaining home gardens consistently refrained from spraying, but this tendency diminished as output allocation shifted toward commercial use, suggesting a possible moral-hazard phenomenon. Farmers were more likely to apply insecticides to crops of high food security or dietary importance, such as rice, although the difference between fresh produce and grain produce in risk of insecticide residue exposure might also have contributed to the difference in insecticide use between rice and non-rice crops. The two samples from Cambodia and Vietnam had similarities regarding the deterring effect of health consideration and differences in other factors affecting insecticide use, such as risk preference, landholding size, household head's education level

  3. Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

  4. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  5. Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.

    1976-04-01

    The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

  6. Building Assessment Survey and Evaluation Data (BASE)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Building Assessment Survey and Evaluation (BASE) study was a five year study to characterize determinants of indoor air quality and occupant perceptions in...

  7. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  8. Medical risk assessment in dentistry: use of the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clough, S; Shehabi, Z; Morgan, C

    2016-02-12

    Medical risk assessment is essential to safe patient management and the delivery of appropriate dental care. The American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA PS) Classification is widely used within medicine and dentistry, but has received significant criticism. This is the first UK survey to assess the consistency of medical risk assessment in dentistry. (i) To determine the use and consistency of the ASA PS among dentists and anaesthetists. (ii) To consider the appropriateness of the ASA PS in relation to dental treatment planning and delivery of care. A cross-sectional online questionnaire was distributed to anaesthetists and dental practitioners in general practice, community and hospital dental services. Questions focused on professional backgrounds, use of the ASA PS, alternative approaches to risk assessment in everyday practice and scoring of eight hypothetical patients using ASA PS. There were 101 responses, 82 were complete. Anaesthetists recorded ASA PS score more frequently than dental practitioners and found it more useful. Inconsistencies were evident in the assignment of ASA PS scores both between and within professional groups. Many dental practitioners did not use or find ASA PS helpful, with significant inconsistencies in its use. An awareness of alternative assessment scales may be useful across settings. Accepting its limitations, it would be helpful for all dentists to be educated in ASA PS and its use in medical risk assessment, particularly in relation to conscious sedation.

  9. National Wetland Condition Assessment 2011: A Collaborative Survey of the Nation's Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Wetland Condition Assessment 2011: A Collaborative Survey presents the results of an unprecedented assessment of the nation’s wetlands. This report is part of the National Aquatic Resource Surveys, a series of statistically based surveys designed to provide the publi...

  10. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  11. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  12. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  13. The risks of technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, U.; Werner, W.; Herttrich, M.

    1987-01-01

    The book presents a complete survey of the methods and procedures applied for risk assessment, referring in particular to the field of nuclear engineering, but dealing also with risk assessment in the sector of the chemical industry and of the power industry, comparing the risks of various technologies for energy production. The material presented shows that a risk assessment study requires information and knowledge from a great variety of subject fields, evaluating and merging the information collected into a complete survey being the main task of risk assessment. It also becomes clear that despite the strong commitment to research in this field, there still remain unresolved problems and phenomena, so that risk assessment bears a certain degree of uncertainty. The results and the mutual connections are represented in words only, so that the reader can do without mathematical knowledge. Many studies and their results are presented, and their explanation in the overall framework allows insight into the connections and an evaluation of usefulness. The status report on risk assessment prepared in August 1984 by the GRS (Society for Reactor Safety) on behalf of the Federal Ministry of the Interior, has been taken as a basis for this book which consists of many individual contributions. (orig./HP) With 45 figs [de

  14. Food groups for allergen risk assessment: Combining food consumption data from different countries in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birot, Sophie; Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Kruizinga, Astrid G

    2018-01-01

    To prevent allergic reactions, food producers have to be able to make a knowledge based decision on whether to label their products with precautionary labelling. As many manufactured food products are sold in different countries across Europe, the allergen risk assessment should be estimated...... at the European levels. As currently, there are no pan-European food data suitable for food allergy risk assessment. The aim of this paper is to investigate if consumption data, at a meal level, from National Food Consumption Surveys, can be combined to form a common Food Consumption database. In this first...... attempt we developed a procedure to investigate, if national food consumption data can be combined and grouped using data from Netherlands, France and Denmark. The homogeneity of consumption patterns and the relevance of difference in risk of allergic reaction were compared, using a fixed framework...

  15. European road users’ risk perception and mobility : the SARTRE 4 survey.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antov, D. Banet, A. Barbier, C. Bellet, T. Bimpeh, Y. Boulanger, A. Brandstätter, C. Britschgi, V. Brosnan, M. Buttler, I. Cestac, J. , De Craen, S. de Delhomme, P. Dogan, E. Drápela, E. Forward, S. Freeman, R. Furian, G. Gábor, M. Goldenbeld, C. Henriksson, P. Holte, H. Kraïem, S. Papadimitriou, E. Podlesek, A. Polic, M. Sánchez-Martín, F. Sardi, G.-M. Schmidt, E.-A. Silverans, P. Siska, T. Skládaná, P. Theofilatos, A. Below, A. von Yannis, G. Zaidel, D. & Zavrides, N.

    2012-01-01

    The SARTRE (Social Attitudes to Road Traffic Risk in Europe) project started in 1991. It consists of a European wide survey about knowledge of road traffic laws and road traffic risks, attitudes regarding road safety issues, reported road traffic behaviours, transport habits and needs in several

  16. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for in Natural and Processed Cheeses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heeyoung Lee

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the risk of Clostridium perfringens (C. perfringens foodborne illness from natural and processed cheeses. Microbial risk assessment in this study was conducted according to four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The hazard identification of C. perfringens on cheese was identified through literature, and dose response models were utilized for hazard characterization of the pathogen. For exposure assessment, the prevalence of C. perfringens, storage temperatures, storage time, and annual amounts of cheese consumption were surveyed. Eventually, a simulation model was developed using the collected data and the simulation result was used to estimate the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption with @RISK. C. perfringens was determined to be low risk on cheese based on hazard identification, and the exponential model (r = 1.82×10−11 was deemed appropriate for hazard characterization. Annual amounts of natural and processed cheese consumption were 12.40±19.43 g and 19.46±14.39 g, respectively. Since the contamination levels of C. perfringens on natural (0.30 Log CFU/g and processed cheeses (0.45 Log CFU/g were below the detection limit, the initial contamination levels of natural and processed cheeses were estimated by beta distribution (α1 = 1, α2 = 91; α1 = 1, α2 = 309×uniform distribution (a = 0, b = 2; a = 0, b = 2.8 to be −2.35 and −2.73 Log CFU/g, respectively. Moreover, no growth of C. perfringens was observed for exposure assessment to simulated conditions of distribution and storage. These data were used for risk characterization by a simulation model, and the mean values of the probability of C. perfringens foodborne illness by cheese consumption per person per day for natural and processed cheeses were 9.57×10−14 and 3.58×10−14, respectively. These results indicate that probability of C. perfringens

  17. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  18. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  19. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  20. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  1. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  2. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  3. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  4. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  5. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  6. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  7. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2000-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)

  8. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  9. Howard Hughes Medical Institute dose assessment survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Brien, S.L.; McDougall, M.M.; Barkley, W.E.

    1996-01-01

    Biomedical science researchers often express frustration that health physics practices vary widely between individual institutions. A survey examining both internal and external dose assessment practices was devised and mailed to fifty institutions supporting biomedical science research. The results indicate that health physics dose assessment practices and policies are highly variable. Factors which may contribute to the degree of variation are discussed. 2 tabs

  10. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2015-01-01

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  11. Measuring Risk Aversion for Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Results of Contingent Valuation Survey in Korea

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Within the evaluation of the external cost of nuclear energy, the estimation of the external cost of nuclear power plant (NPP) severe accident is one of the major topics to be addressed. For the evaluation of the external cost of NPP severe accident, the effect of public risk averse behavior against the group accidents, such as NPP accident, dam failure, must be addressed. Although the equivalent fatalities from a single group accident are not common and its risk is very small compared to other accidents, people perceive the group accident more seriously. In other words, people are more concerned about low probability/high consequence events than about high probability/low consequence events having the same mean damage. One of the representative method to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of severe nuclear reactor accidents was developed by Eeckoudt et al., and he used the risk aversion coefficient, mainly based on the analysis of financial risks in the stock markets to evaluate the external cost of nuclear severe accident. However, the use of financial risk aversion coefficient to nuclear severe accidents is not appropriate, because financial risk and nuclear severe accident risk are entirely different. In this paper, the individual-level survey was conducted to measure the risk aversion coefficient and estimate the multiplication factor to integrate the risk aversion in the external costs of NPP severe accident. This study propose an integrated framework on estimation of the external cost associated with severe accidents of NPP considering public risk aversion behavior. The theoretical framework to estimate the risk aversion coefficient/multiplication factor and to assess economic damages from a hypothetical NPP accident was constructed. Based on the theoretical framework, the risk aversion coefficient can be analyzed by conducting public survey with a carefully designed lottery questions. Compared to the previous studies on estimation of the

  12. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  13. Risk Factors for Child Malnutrition in Bangladesh: A Multilevel Analysis of a Nationwide Population-Based Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Mohammad Rocky Khan; Rahman, Mohammad Shafiur; Khan, Mohammad Mubarak Hossain; Mondal, Mohammad Nazrul Islam; Rahman, Mohammad Mosiur; Billah, Baki

    2016-05-01

    To identify the prevalence and risk factors of child malnutrition in Bangladesh. Data was extracted from the Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (2011). The outcome measures were stunting, wasting, and underweight. χ(2) analysis was performed to find the association of outcome variables with selected factors. Multilevel logistic regression models with a random intercept at each of the household and community levels were used to identify the risk factors of stunting, wasting, and underweight. From the 2011 survey, 7568 children less than 5 years of age were included in the current analysis. The overall prevalence of stunting, wasting, and underweight was 41.3% (95% CI 39.0-42.9). The χ(2) test and multilevel logistic regression analysis showed that the variables age, sex, mother's body mass index, mother's educational status, father's educational status, place of residence, socioeconomic status, community status, religion, region of residence, and food security are significant factors of child malnutrition. Children with poor socioeconomic and community status were at higher risk of malnutrition. Children from food insecure families were more likely to be malnourished. Significant community- and household-level variations were found. The prevalence of child malnutrition is still high in Bangladesh, and the risk was assessed at several multilevel factors. Therefore, prevention of malnutrition should be given top priority as a major public health intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Occupational risk of overweight and obesity: an analysis of the Australian Health Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merom Dafna

    2010-06-01

    protect females in professional and associate professional occupations from overweight. For high-risk occupations lifestyle modification could be included in workplace health promotion programs. Further investigation of gender-specific occupational behaviors and additional lifestyle behaviors to those assessed in the current Australian Health Survey, is indicated.

  15. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  16. Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

    2001-01-01

    Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

  17. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  18. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  19. Using random forest for the risk assessment of coal-floor water inrush in Panjiayao Coal Mine, northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Dekang; Wu, Qiang; Cui, Fangpeng; Xu, Hua; Zeng, Yifan; Cao, Yufei; Du, Yuanze

    2018-04-01

    Coal-floor water-inrush incidents account for a large proportion of coal mine disasters in northern China, and accurate risk assessment is crucial for safe coal production. A novel and promising assessment model for water inrush is proposed based on random forest (RF), which is a powerful intelligent machine-learning algorithm. RF has considerable advantages, including high classification accuracy and the capability to evaluate the importance of variables; in particularly, it is robust in dealing with the complicated and non-linear problems inherent in risk assessment. In this study, the proposed model is applied to Panjiayao Coal Mine, northern China. Eight factors were selected as evaluation indices according to systematic analysis of the geological conditions and a field survey of the study area. Risk assessment maps were generated based on RF, and the probabilistic neural network (PNN) model was also used for risk assessment as a comparison. The results demonstrate that the two methods are consistent in the risk assessment of water inrush at the mine, and RF shows a better performance compared to PNN with an overall accuracy higher by 6.67%. It is concluded that RF is more practicable to assess the water-inrush risk than PNN. The presented method will be helpful in avoiding water inrush and also can be extended to various engineering applications.

  20. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

  1. Assessing Field-Specific Risk of Soybean Sudden Death Syndrome Using Satellite Imagery in Iowa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, S; Li, X; Chen, C; Kyveryga, P; Yang, X B

    2016-08-01

    Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery from 2004 to 2013 were used to assess the field-specific risks of soybean sudden death syndrome (SDS) caused by Fusarium virguliforme in Iowa. Fields with a high frequency of significant decrease (>10%) of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) observed in late July to middle August on historical imagery were hypothetically considered as high SDS risk. These high-risk fields had higher slopes and shorter distances to flowlines, e.g., creeks and drainages, particularly in the Des Moines lobe. Field data in 2014 showed a significantly higher SDS level in the high-risk fields than fields selected without considering NDVI information. On average, low-risk fields had 10 times lower F. virguliforme soil density, determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction, compared with other surveyed fields. Ordinal logistic regression identified positive correlations between SDS and slope, June NDVI, and May maximum temperature, but high June maximum temperature hindered SDS. A modeled SDS risk map showed a clear trend of potential disease occurrences across Iowa. Landsat imagery was analyzed similarly, to discuss the ability to utilize higher spatial resolution data. The results demonstrated the great potential of both MODIS and Landsat imagery for SDS field-specific risk assessment.

  2. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  3. Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

    2009-04-01

    There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

  4. Construction scheduled delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hossen, Mufazal Muhammed; Kang, Sun Koo; Kim, Jong Hyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School (KINGS), Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-04-15

    In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs.

  5. Construction scheduled delay risk assessment by using combined AHP-RII methodology for an international NPP project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hossen, Mufazal Muhammed; Kang, Sun Koo; Kim, Jong Hyun

    2015-01-01

    In this study, Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) construction schedule delay risk assessment methodology is developed and the construction delay risk is assessed for turnkey international NPP projects. Three levels of delay factors were selected through literature review and discussions with nuclear industry experts. A questionnaire survey was conducted on the basis of an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Relative Importance Index (RII) methods and the schedule delay risk is assessed qualitatively and quantitatively by severity and frequency of occurrence of delay factors. This study assigns four main delay factors to the first level: main contractor, utility, regulatory authority, and financial and country factor. The second and the third levels are designed with 12 sub-factors and 32 sub-sub-factors, respectively. This study finds the top five most important sub-sub-factors, which are as follows: policy changes, political instability and public intervention; uncompromising regulatory criteria and licensing documents conflicting with existing regulations; robust design document review procedures; redesign due to errors in design and design changes; and worldwide shortage of qualified and experienced nuclear specific equipment manufacturers. The proposed combined AHP-RII methodology is capable of assessing delay risk effectively and efficiently. Decision makers can apply risk informed decision making to avoid unexpected construction delays of NPPs

  6. Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turturro, A; Hart, R W

    1987-01-01

    A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

  7. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  8. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  9. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  11. Developing an International Survey of Teachers' Assessment Capabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Renken, Maggie; Otrel-Cass, Kathrin; Cowie, Bronwen

    teacher education into the first years as teachers across six countries. We target the nature of programmes and changes in understanding assessment purposes, practices, principles and policy. This project builds on the ACT survey of student-teacher understandings of assessment conducted over three years......Professional standards require teachers to be assessment literate - to construct, administer, and score reliable, valid assessments, communicate interpretations and use evidence to adjust teaching to support students. This project investigates student-teachers’ assessment literacy throughout...

  12. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  13. Risk assessment and risk management at the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA): a perspective on the monitoring of foods for chemical residues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bietlot, Henri P; Kolakowski, Beata

    2012-08-01

    The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) uses 'Ranked Risk Assessment' (RRA) to prioritize chemical hazards for inclusion in monitoring programmes or method development projects based on their relative risk. The relative risk is calculated for a chemical by scoring toxicity and exposure in the 'risk model scoring system' of the Risk Priority Compound List (RPCL). The relative ranking and the risk management options are maintained and updated in the RPCL. The ranking may be refined by the data generated by the sampling and testing programs. The two principal sampling and testing programmes are the National Chemical Residue Monitoring Program (NCRMP) and the Food Safety Action Plan (FSAP). The NCRMP sampling plans focus on the analysis of federally registered products (dairy, eggs, honey, meat and poultry, fresh and processed fruit and vegetable commodities, and maple syrup) for residues of veterinary drugs, pesticides, environmental contaminants, mycotoxins, and metals. The NCRMP is complemented by the Food Safety Action Plan (FSAP) targeted surveys. These surveys focus on emerging chemical hazards associated with specific foods or geographical regions for which applicable maximum residue limits (MRLs) are not set. The data from the NCRMP and FSAP also influence the risk management (follow-up) options. Follow-up actions vary according to the magnitude of the health risk, all with the objective of preventing any repeat occurrence to minimize consumer exposure to a product representing a potential risk to human health. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2012. Drug Testing and Analysis © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  15. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  16. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  17. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  18. Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Seliske

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. Methods A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS. The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400–700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1, and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2. Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Results Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor, and an additional small community (Chatham for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. Conclusions This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex

  19. A score for measuring health risk perception in environmental surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcon, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang; Rava, Marta; Braggion, Marco; Grassi, Mario; Zanolin, Maria Elisabetta

    2015-09-15

    In environmental surveys, risk perception may be a source of bias when information on health outcomes is reported using questionnaires. Using the data from a survey carried out in the largest chipboard industrial district in Italy (Viadana, Mantova), we devised a score of health risk perception and described its determinants in an adult population. In 2006, 3697 parents of children were administered a questionnaire that included ratings on 7 environmental issues. Items dimensionality was studied by factor analysis. After testing equidistance across response options by homogeneity analysis, a risk perception score was devised by summing up item ratings. Factor analysis identified one latent factor, which we interpreted as health risk perception, that explained 65.4% of the variance of five items retained after scaling. The scale (range 0-10, mean ± SD 9.3 ± 1.9) had a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.87). Most subjects (80.6%) expressed maximum risk perception (score = 10). Italian mothers showed significantly higher risk perception than foreign fathers. Risk perception was higher for parents of young children, and for older parents with a higher education, than for their counterparts. Actual distance to major roads was not associated with the score, while self-reported intense traffic and frequent air refreshing at home predicted higher risk perception. When investigating health effects of environmental hazards using questionnaires, care should be taken to reduce the possibility of awareness bias at the stage of study planning and data analysis. Including appropriate items in study questionnaires can be useful to derive a measure of health risk perception, which can help to identify confounding of association estimates by risk perception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-01-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

  1. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  2. Cognitive Assessment Practices: A Survey of School Psychologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotelo-Dynega, Marlene; Dixon, Shauna G.

    2014-01-01

    The present article describes an exploratory study regarding the preferred cognitive assessment practices of current school psychologists. Three hundred and twenty-three school psychologists participated in the survey. The results suggest that the majority of school psychologists endorsed that they base their assessment practices on an underlying…

  3. Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heikkeroe, Topi

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology

  4. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  5. Patient safety in external beam radiotherapy, results of the ACCIRAD project: Current status of proactive risk assessment, reactive analysis of events, and reporting and learning systems in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malicki, Julian; Bly, Ritva; Bulot, Mireille; Godet, Jean-Luc; Jahnen, Andreas; Krengli, Marco; Maingon, Philippe; Prieto Martin, Carlos; Przybylska, Kamila; Skrobała, Agnieszka; Valero, Marc; Jarvinen, Hannu

    2017-04-01

    To describe the current status of implementation of European directives for risk management in radiotherapy and to assess variability in risk management in the following areas: 1) in-country regulatory framework; 2) proactive risk assessment; (3) reactive analysis of events; and (4) reporting and learning systems. The original data were collected as part of the ACCIRAD project through two online surveys. Risk assessment criteria are closely associated with quality assurance programs. Only 9/32 responding countries (28%) with national regulations reported clear "requirements" for proactive risk assessment and/or reactive risk analysis, with wide variability in assessment methods. Reporting of adverse error events is mandatory in most (70%) but not all surveyed countries. Most European countries have taken steps to implement European directives designed to reduce the probability and magnitude of accidents in radiotherapy. Variability between countries is substantial in terms of legal frameworks, tools used to conduct proactive risk assessment and reactive analysis of events, and in the reporting and learning systems utilized. These findings underscore the need for greater harmonisation in common terminology, classification and reporting practices across Europe to improve patient safety and to enable more reliable inter-country comparisons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  7. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  8. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  9. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  10. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  11. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  12. Perception of risks and safety. Results of the November 2001 survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    After having recalled the themes present in the survey on the perception of risks and safety as far as nuclear energy is concerned, this report proposes an analysis of the obtained results. It discusses the current general concerns, the perception of risks (confidence, truth), the perception of technological and natural risks for the environment (hazardous installations, demand for environmental acceptability of installations, disasters), the opinions on nuclear activities (image, actors, control of these activities, possibility of a nuclear accident), and finally the risks associated with radon

  13. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  14. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  15. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

  16. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  17. Kona Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Survey (SE1606, EK60)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — During this cruise, small-boat surveys were conducted of surface slicks in order to assess their ecological relevance and underlying physical derivers. To assess the...

  18. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  19. Municipal solid waste management health risk assessment from air emissions for China by applying life cycle analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hua; Nitivattananon, Vilas; Li, Peng

    2015-05-01

    This study is to quantify and objectively evaluate the extent of environmental health risks from three waste treatment options suggested by the national municipal solid waste management enhancing strategy (No [2011] 9 of the State Council, promulgated on 19 April 2011), which includes sanitary landfill, waste-to-energy incineration and compost, together with the material recovery facility through a case study in Zhangqiu City of China. It addresses potential chronic health risks from air emissions to residential receptors in the impacted area. It combines field survey, analogue survey, design documents and life cycle inventory methods in defining the source strength of chemicals of potential concern. The modelling of life cycle inventory and air dispersion is via integrated waste management(IWM)-2 and Screening Air Dispersion Model (Version 3.0) (SCREEN3). The health risk assessment is in accordance with United States Environmental Protection Agency guidance Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS), Volume I: Human Health Evaluation Manual (Part F, Supplemental Guidance for Inhalation Risk Assessment). The exposure concentration is based on long-term exposure to the maximum ground level contaminant in air under the 'reasonable worst situation' emissions and then directly compared with reference for concentration and unit risk factor/cancer slope factor derived from the national air quality standard (for a conventional pollutant) and toxicological studies (for a specific pollutant). Results from this study suggest that the option of compost with material recovery facility treatment may pose less negative health impacts than other options; the sensitivity analysis shows that the landfill integrated waste management collection rate has a great influence on the impact results. Further investigation is needed to validate or challenge the findings of this study. © The Author(s) 2015.

  20. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  1. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  2. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  3. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT): study protocol for a predictive algorithm assessing dementia risk in the community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Stacey; Hsu, Amy; Mojaverian, Nassim; Taljaard, Monica; Huyer, Gregory; Manuel, Douglas G; Tanuseputro, Peter

    2017-10-24

    The burden of disease from dementia is a growing global concern as incidence increases dramatically with age, and average life expectancy has been increasing around the world. Planning for an ageing population requires reliable projections of dementia prevalence; however, existing population projections are simple and have poor predictive accuracy. The Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT) will predict incidence of dementia in the population setting using multivariable modelling techniques and will be used to project dementia prevalence. The derivation cohort will consist of elderly Ontario respondents of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) (2001, 2003, 2005 and 2007; 18 764 males and 25 288 females). Prespecified predictors include sociodemographic, general health, behavioural, functional and health condition variables. Incident dementia will be identified through individual linkage of survey respondents to population-level administrative healthcare databases (1797 and 3281 events, and 117 795 and 166 573 person-years of follow-up, for males and females, respectively, until 31 March 2014). Using time of first dementia capture as the primary outcome and death as a competing risk, sex-specific proportional hazards regression models will be estimated. The 2008/2009 CCHS survey will be used for validation (approximately 4600 males and 6300 females). Overall calibration and discrimination will be assessed as well as calibration within predefined subgroups of importance to clinicians and policy makers. Research ethics approval has been granted by the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. DemPoRT results will be submitted for publication in peer-review journals and presented at scientific meetings. The algorithm will be assessable online for both population and individual uses. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03155815, pre-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No

  5. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  6. Address-based versus random-digit-dial surveys: comparison of key health and risk indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, Michael W; Battaglia, Michael P; Frankel, Martin R; Osborn, Larry; Mokdad, Ali H

    2006-11-15

    Use of random-digit dialing (RDD) for conducting health surveys is increasingly problematic because of declining participation rates and eroding frame coverage. Alternative survey modes and sampling frames may improve response rates and increase the validity of survey estimates. In a 2005 pilot study conducted in six states as part of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the authors administered a mail survey to selected household members sampled from addresses in a US Postal Service database. The authors compared estimates based on data from the completed mail surveys (n = 3,010) with those from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System telephone surveys (n = 18,780). The mail survey data appeared reasonably complete, and estimates based on data from the two survey modes were largely equivalent. Differences found, such as differences in the estimated prevalences of binge drinking (mail = 20.3%, telephone = 13.1%) or behaviors linked to human immunodeficiency virus transmission (mail = 7.1%, telephone = 4.2%), were consistent with previous research showing that, for questions about sensitive behaviors, self-administered surveys generally produce higher estimates than interviewer-administered surveys. The mail survey also provided access to cell-phone-only households and households without telephones, which cannot be reached by means of standard RDD surveys.

  7. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  8. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  9. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  10. 76 FR 44891 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-27

    ...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our draft environmental assessment for the proposed...-2817 before coming. The petition, draft environmental assessment, and plant pest risk assessment are...

  11. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  13. Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

  14. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith

    2001-01-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in practice, decision

  15. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith [Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom). Centre for Environmental Research and Training; Pollard, Simon; Twigger-Ross, Clare [National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, London (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in

  16. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  17. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  18. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  19. An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid

  20. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, Patrick [Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General XI, Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection (Belgium)

    1992-07-01

    In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

  1. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, Patrick

    1992-01-01

    In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

  2. Cross border trade in grain between Nigeria and neighbouring Niger: Risk management assessment along Sokoto Illela-Konni border land

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Chiwuzulum Odozi

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Grain is an important marketable commodity that is hampered by risk of interrelated dimensions, particularly in borderlands of West Africa. Assessing the extent of risk in borderlands can be valuable for policy-makers and likely to contribute to increased regional trade through effective management. Risk management along the grain supply chain was investigated. The methodology was qualitative using desk review of literature and field survey and interviews. While the survey revealed evidence of substantial volume of grain exchange, most of the traders indicated transportation, high taxes and low production of grain as the most important risk factors limiting trade. Production was found to be limited by low access to agricultural insurance, fertilizer, irrigation and credit. Although farmers had access to production information, market information was inadequate. While public grain reserve exists to manage price risk; the capacity was insignificant compared to the magnitude of grain trade in the region. The guaranteed minimum grain price was not collectively determined but by government and their contractors.

  3. Disease Risk Perception and Safety Practices: A Survey of Australian Flying Fox Rehabilitators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia A Sánchez

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Interactions with flying foxes pose disease transmission risks to volunteer rehabilitators (carers who treat injured, ill, and orphaned bats. In particular, Australian bat lyssavirus (ABLV can be transmitted directly from flying foxes to humans in Australia. Personal protective equipment (PPE and rabies vaccination can be used to protect against lyssavirus infection. During May and June 2014, active Australian flying fox carers participated in an online survey (SOAR: Survey Of Australian flying fox Rehabilitators designed to gather demographic data, assess perceptions of disease risk, and explore safety practices. Responses to open-ended questions were analysed thematically. A logistic regression was performed to assess whether rehabilitators' gender, use of PPE, threat perception, and years of experience predicted variation in their odds of being bitten or scratched. Eligible responses were received from 122 rehabilitators located predominantly on the eastern coast of Australia. Eighty-four percent of respondents were female. Years of experience ranged from <1 to 30 years (median 5 years. Respondents were highly educated. All rehabilitators were vaccinated against rabies and 94% received a rabies titre check at least every two years. Sixty-three percent of carers did not perceive viruses in flying foxes as a potential threat to their health, yet 74% of carers reported using PPE when handling flying foxes. Eighty-three percent of rehabilitators had received a flying fox bite or scratch at some point during their career. Carers provide an important community service by rescuing and rehabilitating flying foxes. While rehabilitators in this study have many excellent safety practices, including a 100% vaccination rate against rabies, there is room for improvement in PPE use. We recommend 1 the establishment of an Australia-wide set of guidelines for safety when caring for bats and 2 that the responsible government agencies in Australia support

  4. Security Risks and Protection in Online Learning: A Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong; He, Wu

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes a survey of online learning which attempts to determine online learning providers' awareness of potential security risks and the protection measures that will diminish them. The authors use a combination of two methods: blog mining and a traditional literature search. The findings indicate that, while scholars have…

  5. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  6. Man, technology and risk: a study on intuitive risk assessment and attitudes towards nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Renn, O

    1981-06-01

    Using the instruments of empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severeness of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks.

  7. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  8. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  9. Risk perception of the Belgian population. Results of the public opinion survey in 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perko, T.; Turcanu, C.; Schroeder, J.; Carle, B.

    2010-02-15

    The SCK-CEN 2009 risk perception barometer is based on over 1000 Computer Assisted Personal Interviews, taken from persons selected to be representative for the Belgian 18+ population, and all realized in the period July and August 2009. An additional sample , N = 100 is taken from the for the population living in the communities of Lambusart and Wanfercee-Baulet in the municipality of Fleurus. Besides the classical background variables used to obtain the quota for representatively (age, language, habitat, gender and social class), we also included a series of questions assessing the communication and sociological context. The main topics in the survey were I) risk perception and confidence in authorities; II) Attitude towards science and technology and attitudes toward nuclear energy; III) stake holders engagement; IV)acceptance of legal norms for food products; v) media use; vi) evaluation of nuclear actors; VII) psychometric risk characteristics; VII) safety behaviour and anomy; ix) knowledge about nuclear domain; x) risk communication; xi) consumer's attitude towards food with radioactive contamination. Some of the questions asked in 2009 are similar to those enquired in the SCK barometer of 2006 and 2002, in order to study the time evolution of the risk perception associated with various issues.

  10. Risk perception of the Belgian population. Results of the public opinion survey in 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perko, T.; Turcanu, C.; Schroeder, J.; Carle, B.

    2010-01-01

    The SCK-CEN 2009 risk perception barometer is based on over 1000 Computer Assisted Personal Interviews, taken from persons selected to be representative for the Belgian 18+ population, and all realized in the period July and August 2009. An additional sample , N = 100 is taken from the for the population living in the communities of Lambusart and Wanfercee-Baulet in the municipality of Fleurus. Besides the classical background variables used to obtain the quota for representatively (age, language, habitat, gender and social class), we also included a series of questions assessing the communication and sociological context. The main topics in the survey were I) risk perception and confidence in authorities; II) Attitude towards science and technology and attitudes toward nuclear energy; III) stake holders engagement; IV)acceptance of legal norms for food products; v) media use; vi) evaluation of nuclear actors; VII) psychometric risk characteristics; VII) safety behaviour and anomy; ix) knowledge about nuclear domain; x) risk communication; xi) consumer's attitude towards food with radioactive contamination. Some of the questions asked in 2009 are similar to those enquired in the SCK barometer of 2006 and 2002, in order to study the time evolution of the risk perception associated with various issues.

  11. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  12. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  13. 78 FR 15894 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-13

    .... FDA-2012-N-1258] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for... comment period for a document entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/ [[Page... ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside the Farm...

  14. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  15. Phase two of Site 300's ecological risk assessment: Model verification and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, T.M.; Gregory, S.D.

    1995-01-01

    The authors completed the baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Site 300 in 1993. Using data collection and modeling techniques adapted from the human health risk assessment (HRA), they evaluated the potential hazard of contaminants in environmental media to ecological receptors. They identified potential hazards to (1) aquatic invertebrates from heavy metal contaminants in surface water, (2) burrowing vertebrates from contaminants volatilizing from subsurface soil into burrow air, and (3) grazing deer and burrowing vertebrates from cadmium contamination in surface soil. They recently began collecting data to refine the estimates of potential hazard to these ecological receptors. Bioassay results form the surface water failed to verify a hazard to aquatic invertebrates. Soil vapor surveys of subsurface burrows did verify the presence of high concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). However, they have not yet verified a true impact on the burrowing populations. The authors also completed an extensive surface soil sampling program, which identified local hot spots of cadmium contamination. In addition, they have been collecting data on the land use patterns of the deer population. Their data indicate that deer do not typically use those areas with cadmium surface soil contamination. Information from this phase of the ERA, along with the results of the HRA, will direct the selection of remedial alternatives for the site. For the ecological receptors, remedial alternatives include developing a risk management program which includes ensuring that (1) sensitive burrowing species (such as rare or endangered species) do not use areas of surface or subsurface contamination, and (2) deer populations do not use areas of surface soil contamination

  16. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  17. Surveying Assessment in Experiential Learning: A Single Campus Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Yates

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine the methods of experiential assessment in use at a Canadian university and the extent to which they are used. Exploring experiential assessment will allow identification of commonly used methods and facilitate the development of best practices of assessment in the context of experiential learning (EL at an institutional level. The origins of EL are found in the work of Dewey (1938, later modified by Kolb and Fry (1975. Experiential methods include: experiential education, service learning problem-based learning and others such as action learning, enquiry-based learning, and case studies. Faculty currently involved in EL at the participating university were invited to complete an online survey about their teaching and assessment methods. This paper will share the results and analysis of the EL inventory survey.

  18. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  19. Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi

    2010-01-01

    Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

  20. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  1. Low bone mass prevalence and osteoporosis risk factor assessment in African American Wisconsin women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidambi, Srividya; Partington, Susan; Binkley, Neil

    2005-11-01

    Post-menopausal osteoporosis is seen in all racial groups. With the increasing population and longevity of minority groups, osteoporosis is becoming an important health concern. Data regarding risk factors for, and prevalence of, low bone mass and awareness of osteoporosis risk in African American (AA) women are limited. This article evaluates the risk factors for, and prevalence of, low bone mass in a population of urban AA women in Wisconsin and assesses this group's perceived risk for osteoporosis. One hundred fifty consecutive community-dwelling AA women > or = 45 years old from Milwaukee, Wis were asked to complete a questionnaire based on currently accepted osteoporosis risk factors. Additionally, their perception of osteoporosis risk was assessed using a Likert scale. All subjects underwent quantitative calcaneal ultrasound. Subject mean age was 54 +/- 7 years. Mean T- and Z-scores were 0.5 and 0.4, respectively. Applying World Health Organization criteria, osteopenia (bone mineral density T-score 2 children), postmenopausal state, and current smoking were associated with lower calcaneal bone mass. Higher education and presence of diabetes were associated with a higher bone mass. Only 25% of the women surveyed thought they were at moderate to high risk for osteoporosis. Low bone mass was present in 33% of these AA women despite their relative young age. Many AA women do not perceive osteoporosis as a health risk. It is necessary to develop strategies to educate AA women regarding osteoporosis risk.

  2. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  3. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  4. Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narumiya, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

  5. Disaster risk assessment at Roburnia Plantation, Mpumalanga, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudzani A. Makhado

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This study reports about disaster risk assessment undertaken at Roburnia Plantation, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were followed to collect data. A total of eight experienced foresters and fire fighters were purposively sampled for interview at Roburnia Plantation. A questionnaire survey was also used to collect the data. Risk levels were quantified using the risks equations of Wisner et al. (2004 and the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR 2002. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Analysis of variance (ANOVA, single factor was also applied. This study found that Roburnia Plantation is highly exposed to fire risks. The mean (± s.d. output from the Wisner risk equation shows that fire is the highest risk at 7.7 ± 0.3, followed by harsh weather conditions at 5.6 ± 0.4 and least by tree diseases, pests and pathogens at 2.3 ± 0.2. Similarly, the mean (± s.d. output from the UNISDR risk equation also shows that fire is the highest risk at 2.9 ± 0.2, followed by harsh weather conditions at 2.2 ± 0.3 and least by tree diseases, pests and pathogens at 1.3 ± 0.2. There was no significant deference in the risk analysis outputs (p = 0.13. This study also found that the number of fire incidents were low during summer, but increased during winter and spring. This variation is mainly due to a converse relationship with rainfall, because the availability of rain moistens the area as well as the fuel. When the area and fuel is moist, fire incidents are reduced, but they increase with a decrease in fuel moisture.

  6. Risk assessment of safety violations for coal mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Megan Orsulaka; Vladislav Kecojevicb; Larry Graysona; Antonio Nietoa [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States). Dept of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2010-09-15

    This article presents an application of a risk assessment approach in characterising the risks associated with safety violations in underground bituminous mines in Pennsylvania using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) citation database. The MSHA database on citations provides an opportunity to assess risks in mines through scrutiny of violations of mandatory safety standards. In this study, quantitative risk assessment is performed, which allows determination of the frequency of occurrence of safety violations (through associated citations) as well as the consequences of them in terms of penalty assessments. Focus is on establishing risk matrices on citation experiences of mines, which can give early indication of emerging potentially serious problems. The resulting frequency, consequence and risk rankings present valuable tools for prioritising resource allocations, determining control strategies, and could potentially contribute to more proactive prevention of incidents and injuries.

  7. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  8. Prevalence and risk factors for canine obesity surveyed in veterinary practices in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Junfu; Xia, Zhaofei; Chen, Jiangnan; Yu, Jinhai

    2013-11-01

    An epidemiological survey of canine obesity was carried out in Beijing, China. Cases (n=2391, 7 districts) were collected at 14 animal hospitals between April 2008 and April 2011. The body condition score (scales of 1-5) was used to assess obesity of the dogs (Burkholder and Toll, 2000; Laflamme, 1997). Obesity rates were analyzed with respect to breed, age, sex, neutering, food control, feeding frequency, reproduction status, food type, nutritional supplements, living environment, feeding time, number of pets per household, feeding purpose, activity control, exercise duration, exercise status and exercise type. The overall canine obesity rate was 44.4% in this survey. The risk factors for dog obesity were food type (non-commercial food, OR=1.377, pobesity was high in pugs (70.7%), Cocker Spaniel (69.4%), Pekingese (51.9%), Pomeranian (54.6%) and Golden Retriever (51.9%). This is the first report of the epidemiology of canine obesity in China. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  10. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  11. Use of bodily sensations as a risk assessment tool: exploring people with Multiple Sclerosis' views on risks of negative interactions between herbal medicine and conventional drug therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skovgaard, Lasse; Pedersen, Inge Kryger; Verhoef, Marja

    2014-02-18

    Most users of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) combine it with conventional medicine. Recent risk assessment studies have shown risks of negative interactions between CAM and conventional medicine, particularly when combining herbal medicine and conventional drug therapies (CDT). Little is known about the way users consider such risks. The present paper aims to gain knowledge about this issue by exploring views on risks of negative interactions when combining herbal medicine and CDT among people with multiple sclerosis (MS). This paper draws on a qualitative follow-up study on a survey among members of the Danish MS Society. Semi-structured, in-depth qualitative interviews were conducted with a strategic selection from the survey respondents. The study was inspired by a phenomenological approach and emerging themes were extracted from the data through meaning condensation. Four themes characterized the informants' views on risks of negative interactions when combining herbal medicine and CDT: 1) 'naturalness' in herbal medicine; 2) 'bodily sensations' as guidelines; 3) trust in the CAM practitioner; 4) lack of dialogue with medical doctor. Generally, the combination of herbal medicine and CDT was considered by the informants to be safe. In particular, they emphasized the 'non-chemical' nature of herbal medicine and of their own bodily sensations as warrants of safety. A trustful relation to the CAM practitioner furthermore made some of them feel safe in their use of herbal medicine and CDT in combination. The informants' use of bodily sensations as a non-discursive risk assessment may be a relevant element in understanding these issues.

  12. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  13. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  14. Impact of Psychosocial Risk Factors on Prenatal Care Delivery: A National Provider Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krans, Elizabeth E.; Moloci, Nicholas M.; Housey, Michelle T.; Davis, Matthew M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective To evaluate providers’ perspectives regarding the delivery of prenatal care to women with psychosocial risk factors. Methods A random, national sample of 2095 prenatal care providers (853 obstetricians and gynecologists (Ob/Gyns), 270 family medicine (FM) physicians and 972 midwives) completed a mailed survey. We measured respondents’ practice and referral patterns regarding six psychosocial risk factors: adolescence (age ≤ 19), unstable housing, lack of paternal involvement and social support, late prenatal care (> 13 weeks gestation), domestic violence and drug or alcohol use. Chi-square and logistic regression analyses assessed the association between prenatal care provider characteristics and prenatal care utilization patterns. Results Approximately 60% of Ob/Gyns, 48.4% of midwives and 32.2% of FM physicians referred patients with psychosocial risk factors to clinicians outside of their practice. In all three specialties, providers were more likely to increase prenatal care visits with alternative clinicians (social workers, nurses, psychologists/psychiatrists) compared to themselves for all six psychosocial risk factors. Drug or alcohol use and intimate partner violence were the risk factors that most often prompted an increase in utilization. In multivariate analyses, Ob/Gyns who recently completed clinical training were significantly more likely to increase prenatal care utilization with either themselves (OR=2.15; 95% CI 1.14–4.05) or an alternative clinician (2.27; 1.00–4.67) for women with high psychosocial risk pregnancies. Conclusions Prenatal care providers frequently involve alternative clinicians such as social workers, nurses and psychologists or psychiatrists in the delivery of prenatal care to women with psychosocial risk factors. PMID:24740719

  15. Ohio Youth Risk Behavior Survey, 1993: When, Why, and What Was Discovered.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohio State Dept. of Health, Columbus.

    This report summarizes the survey answers Ohio high school students (N=2,314) reported about alcohol, tobacco, and other health risk behaviors. The survey contains questions relating to: (1) behaviors that result in intentional and non-intentional injuries; (2) tobacco use; (3) alcohol and other drug use; (4) sexual behaviors that result in HIV…

  16. Caries risk assessment in schoolchildren - a form based on Cariogram® software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Nunes CABRAL

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Identifying caries risk factors is an important measure which contributes to best understanding of the cariogenic profile of the patient. The Cariogram® software provides this analysis, and protocols simplifying the method were suggested. Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine whether a newly developed Caries Risk Assessment (CRA form based on the Cariogram® software could classify schoolchildren according to their caries risk and to evaluate relationships between caries risk and the variables in the form. Material and Methods: 150 schoolchildren aged 5 to 7 years old were included in this survey. Caries prevalence was obtained according to International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS II. Information for filling in the form based on Cariogram® was collected clinically and from questionnaires sent to parents. Linear regression and a forward stepwise multiple regression model were applied to correlate the variables included in the form with the caries risk. Results: Caries prevalence, in primary dentition, including enamel and dentine carious lesions was 98.6%, and 77.3% when only dentine lesions were considered. Eighty-six percent of the children were classified as at moderate caries risk. The forward stepwise multiple regression model result was significant (R2=0.904; p<0.00001, showing that the most significant factors influencing caries risk were caries experience, oral hygiene, frequency of food consumption, sugar consumption and fluoride sources. Conclusion: The use of the form based on the Cariogram® software enabled classification of the schoolchildren at low, moderate and high caries risk. Caries experience, oral hygiene, frequency of food consumption, sugar consumption and fluoride sources are the variables that were shown to be highly correlated with caries risk.

  17. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  18. Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ragozin, A.L.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

  19. Resource handbook on transport risk assessment (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; Luna, R.; Weiner, R.; Yoshimura, R.; Detrick, C.; Dunn, T.; Maheras, S.; Bhatnager, S.; Kapoor, A.K.

    2003-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program established the DOE Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group (TRAWG) to develop the Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment, published in July 2002. The working group is comprised of technical experts representing DOE national laboratories, the DOE Naval Reactors Program, and DOE contractors. The motivation behind preparing this handbook was to document and disseminate lessons learned and information accumulated from more than 20 years of experience by DOE and its contractors in preparing transport risk assessments that address the shipment of virtually all types of radioactive materials and wastes. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information on conducting transport risk assessments for shipments of radioactive materials or wastes under both normal and accident conditions. The paper provides an overview of the information contained in the handbook. It should be recognised that development of radioactive materials transport risk assessment is an ongoing process, and that the analysis methods are regularly improved. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment appears on the Web at www.ntp.doe.gov/transrisk_handbook.pdf. (author)

  20. Changes in erectile dysfunction over time in relation to Framingham cardiovascular risk in the Boston Area Community Health (BACH) Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Shona C; Rosen, Raymond C; Vita, Joseph A; Ganz, Peter; Kupelian, Varant

    2015-01-01

    Erectile dysfunction (ED) is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, the association between change in ED status over time and future underlying CVD risk is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between change in ED status and Framingham CVD risk, as well change in Framingham risk. We studied 965 men free of CVD in the Boston Area Community Health (BACH) Survey, a longitudinal cohort study with three assessments. ED was assessed with the five-item International Index of Erectile Function at BACH I (2002-2005) and BACH II (2007-2010) and classified as no ED/transient ED/persistent ED. CVD risk was assessed with 10-year Framingham CVD risk algorithm at BACH I and BACH III (2010-2012). Linear regression models controlled for baseline age, socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, as well as baseline Framingham risk. Models were also stratified by age (≥/< 50 years). Framingham CVD risk and change in Framingham CVD risk were the main outcome measures. Transient and persistent ED was significantly associated with increased Framingham risk and change in risk over time in univariate and age-adjusted models. In younger men, persistent ED was associated with a Framingham risk that was 1.58 percentage points higher (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.11, 3.06) and in older men, a Framingham risk that was 2.54 percentage points higher (95% CI: -1.5, 6.59), compared with those without ED. Change in Framingham risk over time was also associated with transient and persistent ED in men <50 years, but not in older men. Data suggest that even after taking into account other CVD risk factors, transient and persistent ED is associated with Framingham CVD risk and a greater increase in Framingham risk over time, particularly in younger men. Findings further support clinical assessment of CVD risk in men presenting with ED, especially those under 50 years. © 2014 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

  1. Folate status in women of reproductive age as basis of neural tube defect risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Lynn B; Hausman, Dorothy B

    2018-02-01

    Reliable folate status data for women of reproductive age (WRA) to assess global risk for neural tube defects (NTDs) are needed. We focus on a recent recommendation by the World Health Organization that a specific "optimal" red blood cell (RBC) folate concentration be used as the sole indicator of NTD risk within a population and discuss how to best apply this guidance to reach the goal of assessing NTD risk globally. We also emphasize the importance of using the microbiologic assay (MBA) as the most reliable assay for obtaining comparable results for RBC folate concentration across time and countries, the need for harmonization of the MBA through use of consistent key reagents and procedures within laboratories, and the requirement to apply assay-matched cutoffs for folate deficiency and insufficiency. To estimate NTD risk globally, the ideal scenario would be to have country-specific population-based surveys of RBC folate in WRA determined utilizing a harmonized MBA, as was done in recent studies in Guatemala and Belize. We conclude with guidance on next steps to best navigate the road map toward the goal of generating reliable folate status data on which to assess NTD risk in WRA in low- and middle-income countries. © 2017 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of New York Academy of Sciences.

  2. Safety and security risk assessments--now demystified!

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Donald E

    2011-01-01

    Safety/security risk assessments no longer need to spook nor baffle healthcare safety/security managers. This grid template provides at-at-glance quick lookup of the possible threats, the affected people and things, a priority ranking of these risks, and a workable solution for each risk. Using the standard document, spreadsheet, or graphics software already available on your computer, you can easily use a scientific method to produce professional looking risk assessments that get quickly understood by both senior managers and first responders alike!

  3. Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter II, G.W.

    2003-06-18

    The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.

  4. Prevalence and Knowledge Assessment of HIV and Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors among Formal Sector Employees in Namibia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guariguata, Leonor; de Beer, Ingrid; Hough, Rina; Mulongeni, Pancho; Feeley, Frank G; Rinke de Wit, Tobias F

    2015-01-01

    The burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is growing in sub-Saharan Africa combined with an already high prevalence of infectious disease, like HIV. Engaging the formal employment sector may present a viable strategy for addressing both HIV and NCDs in people of working age. This study assesses the presence of three of the most significant threats to health in Namibia among employees in the formal sector: elevated blood pressure, elevated blood glucose, and HIV and assesses the knowledge and self-perceived risk of employees for these conditions. A health and wellness screening survey of employees working in 13 industries in the formal sector of Namibia was conducted including 11,192 participants in the Bophelo! Project in Namibia, from January 2009 to October 2010. The survey combined a medical screening for HIV, blood glucose and blood pressure with an employee-completed survey on knowledge and risk behaviors for those conditions. We estimated the prevalence of the three conditions and compared to self-reported employee knowledge and risk behaviors and possible determinants. 25.8% of participants had elevated blood pressure, 8.3% of participants had an elevated random blood glucose measurement, and 8.9% of participants tested positive for HIV. Most participants were not smokers (80%), reported not drinking alcohol regularly (81.2%), and had regular condom use (66%). Most participants could not correctly identify risk factors for hypertension (57.2%), diabetes (57.3%), or high-risk behaviors for HIV infection (59.5%). In multivariate analysis, having insurance (OR:1.15, 95%CI: 1.03 - 1.28) and a managerial position (OR: 1.29, 95%CI: 1.13 - 1.47) were associated with better odds of knowledge of diabetes. The prevalence of elevated blood pressure, elevated blood glucose, and HIV among employees of the Namibian formal sector is high, while risk awareness is low. Attention must be paid to improving the knowledge of health-related risk factors as well as providing

  5. Prevalence and Knowledge Assessment of HIV and Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors among Formal Sector Employees in Namibia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonor Guariguata

    Full Text Available The burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs is growing in sub-Saharan Africa combined with an already high prevalence of infectious disease, like HIV. Engaging the formal employment sector may present a viable strategy for addressing both HIV and NCDs in people of working age. This study assesses the presence of three of the most significant threats to health in Namibia among employees in the formal sector: elevated blood pressure, elevated blood glucose, and HIV and assesses the knowledge and self-perceived risk of employees for these conditions.A health and wellness screening survey of employees working in 13 industries in the formal sector of Namibia was conducted including 11,192 participants in the Bophelo! Project in Namibia, from January 2009 to October 2010. The survey combined a medical screening for HIV, blood glucose and blood pressure with an employee-completed survey on knowledge and risk behaviors for those conditions. We estimated the prevalence of the three conditions and compared to self-reported employee knowledge and risk behaviors and possible determinants.25.8% of participants had elevated blood pressure, 8.3% of participants had an elevated random blood glucose measurement, and 8.9% of participants tested positive for HIV. Most participants were not smokers (80%, reported not drinking alcohol regularly (81.2%, and had regular condom use (66%. Most participants could not correctly identify risk factors for hypertension (57.2%, diabetes (57.3%, or high-risk behaviors for HIV infection (59.5%. In multivariate analysis, having insurance (OR:1.15, 95%CI: 1.03 - 1.28 and a managerial position (OR: 1.29, 95%CI: 1.13 - 1.47 were associated with better odds of knowledge of diabetes.The prevalence of elevated blood pressure, elevated blood glucose, and HIV among employees of the Namibian formal sector is high, while risk awareness is low. Attention must be paid to improving the knowledge of health-related risk factors as well as

  6. Ecological Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Higher Plants (GMHP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, C.; Damgaard, C.; Kjellsson, G.

    Preface This publication is a first version of a manual identifying the data needs for ecological risk assessment of genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). It is the intention of the authors to stimulate further discussion of what data are needed in order to conduct a proper ecological risk...... of the project Biotechnology: elements in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. December 1999 Christian Kjær Introduction In ecological risk assessment of transgenic plants, information on a wide range of subjects is needed for an effective and reliable assessment procedure...... in the amendment to the directive. This report suggests a structured way to identify the type of data needed to perform a sound ecological risk assessment for genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). The identified data types are intended to support the evaluation of the following risks: risk of invasion...

  7. Perception of risks and safety. Results of the October 2000 survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    After having recalled the themes present in the survey on the perception of risks and safety as far as nuclear energy is concerned, this report proposes an analysis of the obtained results. It discusses the current general concerns, the perception of risks (confidence, truth), the opinions on the scientific expertise, the perception of technological and natural risks for the environment (hazardous installations, demand for environmental acceptability of installations, disasters), the opinions on nuclear activities (image, actors, information, control of these activities), the possibility of a nuclear accident and the implemented countermeasures, and finally the risks associated with radon

  8. Perception of risks and safety. Results of the October 1999 survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    After having recalled the themes present in the survey on the perception of risks and safety as far as nuclear energy is concerned, this report proposes an analysis of the obtained results. It discusses the current general concerns, the perception of risks (demand, confidence, truth), the opinions on scientific expertise, the opinions on nuclear activities (image, actors, information, control of these activities), the issue of radioactive wastes and mining residues (perceived risk depending on the site vicinity, time scale, site management), the possibility of a nuclear accident and the implemented countermeasures, and finally the risks concerning food

  9. Assessment of health surveys: fitting a multidimensional graded response model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depaoli, Sarah; Tiemensma, Jitske; Felt, John M

    The multidimensional graded response model, an item response theory (IRT) model, can be used to improve the assessment of surveys, even when sample sizes are restricted. Typically, health-based survey development utilizes classical statistical techniques (e.g. reliability and factor analysis). In a review of four prominent journals within the field of Health Psychology, we found that IRT-based models were used in less than 10% of the studies examining scale development or assessment. However, implementing IRT-based methods can provide more details about individual survey items, which is useful when determining the final item content of surveys. An example using a quality of life survey for Cushing's syndrome (CushingQoL) highlights the main components for implementing the multidimensional graded response model. Patients with Cushing's syndrome (n = 397) completed the CushingQoL. Results from the multidimensional graded response model supported a 2-subscale scoring process for the survey. All items were deemed as worthy contributors to the survey. The graded response model can accommodate unidimensional or multidimensional scales, be used with relatively lower sample sizes, and is implemented in free software (example code provided in online Appendix). Use of this model can help to improve the quality of health-based scales being developed within the Health Sciences.

  10. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  11. Assessing Suicide Risk and Emotional Distress in Chinese Social Media: A Text Mining and Machine Learning Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Qijin; Li, Tim Mh; Kwok, Chi-Leung; Zhu, Tingshao; Yip, Paul Sf

    2017-07-10

    Early identification and intervention are imperative for suicide prevention. However, at-risk people often neither seek help nor take professional assessment. A tool to automatically assess their risk levels in natural settings can increase the opportunity for early intervention. The aim of this study was to explore whether computerized language analysis methods can be utilized to assess one's suicide risk and emotional distress in Chinese social media. A Web-based survey of Chinese social media (ie, Weibo) users was conducted to measure their suicide risk factors including suicide probability, Weibo suicide communication (WSC), depression, anxiety, and stress levels. Participants' Weibo posts published in the public domain were also downloaded with their consent. The Weibo posts were parsed and fitted into Simplified Chinese-Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (SC-LIWC) categories. The associations between SC-LIWC features and the 5 suicide risk factors were examined by logistic regression. Furthermore, the support vector machine (SVM) model was applied based on the language features to automatically classify whether a Weibo user exhibited any of the 5 risk factors. A total of 974 Weibo users participated in the survey. Those with high suicide probability were marked by a higher usage of pronoun (odds ratio, OR=1.18, P=.001), prepend words (OR=1.49, P=.02), multifunction words (OR=1.12, P=.04), a lower usage of verb (OR=0.78, Psuicide probability (area under the curve, AUC=0.61, P=.04) and severe anxiety (AUC=0.75, Psuicide risk and emotional distress in Chinese social media and can identify characteristics different from previous findings in the English literature. Some findings are leading to new hypotheses for future verification. Machine classifiers based on SC-LIWC features are promising but still require further optimization for application in real life. ©Qijin Cheng, Tim MH Li, Chi-Leung Kwok, Tingshao Zhu, Paul SF Yip. Originally published in the Journal of

  12. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  13. Quantitative risk assessment of foods containing peanut advisory labeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C; Baumert, Joseph L; Marx, David B; Taylor, Steve L

    2013-12-01

    Foods with advisory labeling (i.e. "may contain") continue to be prevalent and the warning may be increasingly ignored by allergic consumers. We sought to determine the residual levels of peanut in various packaged foods bearing advisory labeling, compare similar data from 2005 and 2009, and determine any potential risk for peanut-allergic consumers. Of food products bearing advisory statements regarding peanut or products that had peanut listed as a minor ingredient, 8.6% and 37.5% contained detectable levels of peanut (>2.5 ppm whole peanut), respectively. Peanut-allergic individuals should be advised to avoid such products regardless of the wording of the advisory statement. Peanut was detected at similar rates and levels in products tested in both 2005 and 2009. Advisory labeled nutrition bars contained the highest levels of peanut and an additional market survey of 399 products was conducted. Probabilistic risk assessment showed the risk of a reaction to peanut-allergic consumers from advisory labeled nutrition bars was significant but brand-dependent. Peanut advisory labeling may be overused on some nutrition bars but prudently used on others. The probabilistic approach could provide the food industry with a quantitative method to assist with determining when advisory labeling is most appropriate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A Wide Area Risk Assessment Framework for Underwater Military Munitions Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, K. T.; Calantoni, J.

    2017-12-01

    Our objective was to develop a prototype statistical framework supporting Wide Area Assessment and Remedial Investigation decisions relating to the risk of unexploded ordnance and other military munitions concentrated in underwater environments. Decision making involving underwater munitions is inherently complex due to the high degree of uncertainty in the environmental conditions that force munitions responses (burial, decay, migration, etc.) and associated risks to the public. The prototype framework provides a consistent approach to accurately delineating contaminated areas at underwater munitions sites through the estimation of most probable concentrations. We adapted existing deterministic models and environmental data services for use within statistical modules that allowed the estimation of munition concentration given historic site information and environmental attributes. Ultimately this risk surface can be used to evaluate costs associated with various remediation approaches (e.g. removal, monitoring, etc.). Unfortunately, evaluation of the assessment framework was limited due to the lack of enduser data services from munition site managers. Of the 450 U.S. sites identified as having potential contamination with underwater munitions, assessment of available munitions information (including historic firing or disposal records, and recent ground-truth munitions samples) indicated very limited information in the databases. Example data types include the most probable munition types, approximate firing / disposal dates and locations, and any supportive munition survey or sampling results. However the overall technical goal to integrate trained statistical belief networks with detailed geophysical knowledge of sites, of sensors and of the underwater environment was demonstrated and should allow probabilistic estimates of the most likely outcomes and tradeoffs while managing uncertainty associated with military munitions response.

  15. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  16. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  17. Supplementing quantitative risk assessments with a stage addressing the risk understanding of the decision maker

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative probabilistic risk assessment produces a conditional risk description given the knowledge of the analysts (formulated to a large extent through assumptions). However, important aspects of the risk may be concealed in the background knowledge of the analyst and the assumptions. This paper discusses this issue, the main purpose being to present a two-stage risk assessment approach where the second stage addresses the risk understanding of the decision maker. This second-stage is to a large extent qualitative. The approach is novel with its separation between the analysts' conditional risk descriptions using probability judgments, and the decision maker's risk understanding. The approach aims at improving the use of risk assessment in practical decision making by ensuring that the results of the risk assessments are properly interpreted and the key aspects of risk, uncertainty and knowledge are brought to attention for the decision makers. Examples are used to illustrate the approach. - Highlights: • A quantitative risk assessment produces a conditional risk description. • The decision maker (DM) needs to address risk beyond this description. • The paper presents a related two-stage process, covering analyst and DM judgments. • The second stage relates to the DM's risk understanding. • Strength of knowledge judgments are included in both stages.

  18. Automatic breast cancer risk assessment from digital mammograms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karemore, Gopal Raghunath; Brandt, Sami; Karssemeijer, N

    Purpose: Textural characteristics of the breast tissue structure on mammogram have been shown to improve breast cancer risk assessment in several large studies. Currently, however, the texture is not used to assess risk in standard clinical procedures or involved in general breast cancer risk ass...

  19. Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.

    2000-01-01

    Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews

  20. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment in the nuclear power industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fullwood, R.R.; Hall, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    This book describes the more important improvements in risk assessment methodology developed over the last decade. The book covers the following areas - a general view of risk pertaining to nuclear power, mathematics necessary to understand the text, a concise overview of the light water reactors and their features for protecting the public, probabilities and consequences calculated to form risk assessment to the plant, and 34 applications of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the power generation industry. There is a glossary of acronyms and unusual words and a list of references. (author)

  2. 78 FR 64428 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for Activities...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-29

    .... FDA-2013-N-1043] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations