WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment survey

  1. Assessing risk of draft survey by AHP method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guangcheng; Zhao, Kuimin; Zuo, Zhaoying; Liu, Gang; Jian, Binguo; Lin, Yan; Fan, Yukun; Wang, Fei

    2018-04-01

    The paper assesses the risks of vessel floating in the seawater for draft survey by using the analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, the paper established draft survey risk index from the view of draft reading, ballast water, fresh water, and calculation process and so on. Then the paper proposes the method to deal with risk assessment using one concrete sample.

  2. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  3. A survey of ecological risk assessment at DOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnthouse, L.W.; Bascietto, J.; Joseph, T.; Bilyard, G.

    1992-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Risk-Based Standards Working Group is studying standard-setting and remedial action based on realistic estimates of human health and ecological risks. Federal and state regulations require DOE to assess ecological risks due to present and past operation of DOE facilities and ecological damage caused by remedial actions. Unfortunately, little technical guidance has been provided by regulatory agencies about how these assessments should be performed or what constitutes an adequate assessment. Active ecological research, environmental characterization, and ecological risk assessment programs are already underway at many locations. Some of these programs were established more than 30 years ago. Because of the strength of its existing programs and the depth of expertise available within the DOE complex, the agency is in a position to lead in developing ecological risk assessment procedures that are fully consistent with the general principles defined by EPA and that will ensure environmentally sound and cost-effective restoration of its sites. As a prelude to guidance development, the working group conducted a survey of ecological risk assessment activities at a subset of major DOE facilities. The survey was intended to (1) identify approaches now being used in ecological risk assessments performed by DOE staff and contractors at each site, (2) record successes and failures of these approaches, (3) identify new technical developments with potential for general application to many DOE facilities, and (4) identify major data needs, data resources, and methodological deficiencies

  4. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1994-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

  5. Radiological Risk Assessment and Survey of Radioactive Contamination for Foodstuffs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, W.R.; Lee, C.W.; Choi, K.S.

    2007-11-01

    After the Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986, a radiological dose assessment and a survey of a radioactive contamination for foodstuffs have been investigated by many countries such as EU, Japan, USA. In the case of Japan which is similar to our country for the imported regions of foodstuffs, there were some instances of the excess for regulation on the maximum permitted levels of radioactive contamination among some imported foodstuffs. Concerns about the radioactive contamination of foodstuffs are increased because of the recently special situation (Nuclear test of North Korea). The purpose of this study is a radiological dose assessment and a survey of a radioactive contamination for foodstuffs in order to reduce the probability of intake of contaminated foodstuffs. Analytical results of the collected samples are below MDA. In this project, the model of radiological dose assessment via the food chain was also developed and radiological dose assessment was conducted based on surveys results of a radioactive contamination for foodstuffs in the Korean open markets since 2002. The results of radiological dose assessment are far below international reference level. It shows that public radiation exposure via food chain is well controlled within the international guide level. However, the radioactive contamination research of imported foodstuffs should be continuous considering the special situation(nuclear test of North Korea). These results are used to manage the radioactive contamination of the imported foodstuffs and also amend the regulation on the maximum permitted levels of radioactive contamination of foodstuffs

  6. Assessing Violence Risk and Psychopathy in Juvenile and Adult Offenders: A Survey of Clinical Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viljoen, Jodi L.; McLachlan, Kaitlyn; Vincent, Gina M.

    2010-01-01

    This study surveyed 199 forensic clinicians about the practices that they use in assessing violence risk in juvenile and adult offenders. Results indicated that the use of risk assessment and psychopathy tools was common. Although clinicians reported more routine use of psychopathy measures in adult risk assessments compared with juvenile risks…

  7. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  8. Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

    1982-10-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included

  9. Venous Thromboembolism – Risk Assessment Tool and Thromboprophylaxis Policy: A National Survey

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Khan, MI

    2017-01-01

    Venous Thromboembolic (VTE) events in hospitalised patients are associated with significant mortality and morbidity and a major economic burden on the health service. It is well established in the literature that active implementation of a mandatory risk assessment tool and thromboprophylaxis policy reduces the incidence of hospital associated thrombosis (HAT). This study examines the utilization of a VTE risk assessment tool and thromboprophylaxis (TP) policy in Irish hospitals that manage acute admissions. A national survey was distributed to forty acute hospitals throughout Ireland. The response rate was 78% (31\\/40). The results showed that only 26% (n=8\\/31) of acute hospitals in Ireland have a local implemented TP policy. Six (75%) of these eight had a risk assessment tool in conjunction with the TP policy. All respondents who did not report to have a TP policy and risk assessment tool agreed that they should implement VTE prevention policy at their hospital. Based on the data from this survey and evidence from the effectiveness of the VTE prevention programme introduced in the United Kingdom, there is a need for a national risk assessment and thromboprophylaxis policy in Ireland. This change in practice would have the potential to prevent or reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with hospital acquired thrombosis

  10. Venous thromboembolism in medical outpatients - a cross-sectional survey of risk assessment and prophylaxis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawall, Holger; Matthiessen, Andreas; Hohmann, Volker; Bramlage, Peter; Haas, Sylvia; Schellong, Sebastian

    2011-01-01

    The degree of thromboprophylaxis in medical outpatients is low despite a substantial risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE). This may be attributable to difficulties in assessing risk. Assessment tools like the Haas' scorecard aid in determining the need for thromboprophylaxis. We aimed at evaluating how the use of this tool may aid physicians in appropriately using anticoagulants. This was an epidemiological, cross-sectional survey of acute medically ill patients with limited mobility treated by general practitioners and internists. Risk assessment for VTE by the treating physician was compared to calculated risk. Of 8,123 patients evaluated between August 2006 and April 2008, 7,271 fulfilled the in- and exclusion criteria. Mean age was 69.4 ± 13.6 years, and 45.2% were male. Of these 82.8% were high risk based on their acute medical condition, 37.9% based on their underlying chronic condition. Immobilisation, heart failure, pneumonia, age, obesity, and major varicosis were the most frequently encountered risk factors. The agreement between the Haas' scorecard and physician indicated risk was high. At least 94.1% of patients with high risk received adequate anticoagulation mostly as low molecular weight heparins for a mean duration of 15.1 ± 30.5 days. There is a substantial risk for VTE in medical outpatients. Using a simple structured scorecard resulted in an overall appropriate risk assessment and high degree of anticoagulation. The scorecard may provide a tool to improve the overall awareness for VTE risk in medical outpatients, substantially improving the degree of prophylaxis in a patient population with largely underestimated risk.

  11. Contribution to Risk Analysis of a Standard Brewery: Application of a Hygiene Assessment System Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Raposo, António; Salazar, Jairo; Pérez, Esteban; Sanjuán, Esther; Carrascosa, Conrado; Saavedra, Pedro; Millán, Rafael

    2013-01-01

    "Beer is a food product with a high consumption in Gran Canaria and the brewery industry is also present in this island. In order to carry out this study, it was designed a survey to assist in the assessment of risks from the facilities and infrastructures of the brewery, the raw materials used in the beer production and the HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) plan. An initial assessment of various aspects of the industry has been conducted at the beginning of hygienic-sani...

  12. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  13. APPLICATION OF LASER SCANNING SURVEYING TO ROCK SLOPES RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Corsetti

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The methods for understanding rock instability mechanisms and for evaluating potential destructive scenarios are of great importance in risk assessment analysis dedicated to the establishment of appropriate prevention and mitigation actions. When the portion of the unstable rock mass is very large, effective actions to counteract the risks are complex and expensive. In these conditions, an optimal risk management cannot ignore procedures able to faster and accurately acquire i geometrical data for modeling the geometry of the rock walls and implementing reliable forecasting models and ii monitoring data able to describe the magnitude and the direction of deformation processes. These data contributes to the prediction of the behavior of a landslide if the measurements are acquired frequently and reliable numerical models can be implemented. Innovative geomatic techniques, based on GPS, Terrestrial Laser Scanning Surveying (TLS, automated total station and satellite and ground SAR Interferometry, have been recently applied to define the geometry and monitoring the displacements of unstable slopes. Among these, TLS is mainly adopted to generate detailed 3D models useful to reconstruct rock wall geometry by contributing to the estimation of geo-mechanical parameters, that is orientation, persistence and apparent spacing of rock discontinuities. Two examples of applications of TLS technique to the analysis of a large front in a quarry and of a rock shoulder of a dam are presented.

  14. Survey on methodologies in the risk assessment of chemical exposures in emergency response situations in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heinälä, Milla; Gundert-Remy, Ursula; Wood, Maureen Heraty

    2013-01-01

    A scientifically sound assessment of the risk to human health resulting from acute chemical releases is the cornerstone for chemical incident prevention, preparedness and response. Although the general methodology to identify acute toxicity of chemicals has not substantially changed in the last....../corrosive chemicals will remain serious risks also in future the development of plausible scenarios for potential emerging risks is also needed. This includes risks from new mixtures and chemicals (e.g. nanoparticles)....

  15. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  16. Trust, emotion, sex, politics, and science: surveying the risk-assessment battlefield.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slovic, P

    1999-08-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept "risk" and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by worldviews, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach--one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase

  17. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slovic, Paul [Decision Research, Eugene, OR (United States)

    2001-07-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical

  18. Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slovic, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Risk management has become increasingly politicized and contentious. Polarized views, controversy, and conflict have become pervasive. Research has begun to provide a new perspective on this problem by demonstrating the complexity of the concept 'risk' and the inadequacies of the traditional view of risk assessment as a purely scientific enterprise. This paper argues that danger is real, but risk is socially constructed. Risk assessment is inherently subjective and represents a blending of science and judgment with important psychological, social, cultural, and political factors. In addition, our social and democratic institutions, remarkable as they are in many respects, breed distrust in the risk arena. Whoever controls the definition of risk controls the rational solution to the problem at hand. If risk is defined one way, then one option will rise to the top as the most cost-effective or the safest or the best. If it is defined another way, perhaps incorporating qualitative characteristics and other contextual factors, one will likely get a different ordering of action solutions. Defining risk is thus an exercise in power. Scientific literacy and public education are important, but they are not central to risk controversies. The public is not irrational. Their judgments about risk are influenced by emotion and affect in a way that is both simple and sophisticated. The same holds true for scientists. Public views are also influenced by world views, ideologies, and values; so are scientists' views, particularly when they are working at the limits of their expertise. The limitations of risk science, the importance and difficulty of maintaining trust, and the complex, sociopolitical nature of risk point to the need for a new approach-one that focuses upon introducing more public participation into both risk assessment and risk decision making in order to make the decision process more democratic, improve the relevance and quality of technical analysis, and increase

  19. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  20. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  1. Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, Dina; Pieters, Wolter; Teixeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

    2017-01-01

    Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by implementing suitable risk treatment plans. However, an overarching overview of these methods, systematizing the characteristics of such methods, is missing. In this paper, we conduct a systematic l...

  2. Clinicians' use of breast cancer risk assessment tools according to their perceived importance of breast cancer risk factors: an international survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brédart, Anne; Kop, Jean-Luc; Antoniou, Antonis C; Cunningham, Alex P; De Pauw, Antoine; Tischkowitz, Marc; Ehrencrona, Hans; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Dolbeault, Sylvie; Rhiem, Kerstin; Easton, Douglas F; Devilee, Peter; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Schmutlzer, Rita

    2018-03-05

    The BOADICEA breast cancer (BC) risk assessment model and its associated Web Application v3 (BWA) tool are being extended to incorporate additional genetic and non-genetic BC risk factors. From an online survey through the BOADICEA website and UK, Dutch, French and Swedish national genetic societies, we explored the relationships between the usage frequencies of the BWA and six other common BC risk assessment tools and respondents' perceived importance of BC risk factors. Respondents (N = 443) varied in age, country and clinical seniority but comprised mainly genetics health professionals (82%) and BWA users (93%). Oncology professionals perceived reproductive, hormonal (exogenous) and lifestyle BC risk factors as more important in BC risk assessment compared to genetics professionals (p values personal BC history as BC risk factors. BWA use was positively related to the weight given to hormonal BC risk factors. The importance attributed to lifestyle and BMI BC risk factors was not associated with the use of BWA or any of the other tools. Next version of the BWA encompassing additional BC risk factors will facilitate more comprehensive BC risk assessment in genetics and oncology practice.

  3. Progress with situation assessment and risk prediction in advanced driver assistance systems : A survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rendon-Velez, E.; Horváth, I.; Opiyo, E.Z.

    2009-01-01

    In the field of automotive safety, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are receiving growing attention. Effective ADAS requires awareness of the actual driving situation, a reliable assessment of the risks, and making rapid decisions on assisting actions. This paper reviews the current

  4. Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, D.; Pieters, Wolter; Texeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

    2016-01-01

    Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by

  5. Survey of probabilistic methods in safety and risk assessment for nuclear power plant licensing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-04-01

    After an overview about the goals and general methods of probabilistic approaches in nuclear safety the main features of probabilistic safety or risk assessment (PRA) methods are discussed. Mostly in practical applications not a full-fledged PRA is applied but rather various levels of analysis leading from unavailability assessment of systems over the more complex analysis of the probable core damage stages up to the assessment of the overall health effects on the total population from a certain practice. The various types of application are discussed in relation to their limitation and benefits for different stages of design or operation of nuclear power plants. This gives guidance for licensing staff to judge the usefulness of the various methods for their licensing decisions. Examples of the application of probabilistic methods in several countries are given. Two appendices on reliability analysis and on containment and consequence analysis provide some more details on these subjects. (author)

  6. Physician assessment of stroke risk in hypertensive patients in the Middle East and Africa: results of the action survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badr, Kamal F; Boudia, Khereddine M Merad; Alami, Mohamed; Khoja, Waleed A; Belhani, Ali B; Nawar, Moustafa; Ragy, Hany; Ishaq, Mohammad; Baron, J M Muscat; Hammoudeh, Ayman J; De Mar Youssef, Suzan S; Nakhle, Reine M; Chalfoun, Amale G

    2007-01-01

    In the absence of reliable, contemporary national data, the ACTION survey was designed to: a) provide preliminary data on stroke risk in the MEA (Middle East and Africa); b) describe the contribution of specific cardiovascular risk factors; 3) assess blood pressure (BP) control. This was a multi-center observational study in nine countries in the MEA region. From 2003 to 2005, 562 physicians from a variety of specialties recorded observations of cardiovascular risk factors in 4,747 hypertensive patients, aged 54-80 years. The 10-year absolute stroke risk was calculated using a scoring system based on the Framingham Heart Study observations, and comparisons made with an age-matched cohort. The mean 10-year stroke risk was estimated at 22.7% and was significantly higher for men (25.4%) than for women (19.5%) (P age-matched Framingham cohort, the estimated stroke risk in our population was almost double, and was significantly higher for females (212%) than for males (192%) (P < .001). Hypertension, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy, and smoking were major contributing risk factors, as were physical inactivity and elevated cholesterol. Blood pressure was controlled in only 18% of the population and in 12% of diabetics. Physicians of all specialties were willing to participate in stroke risk assessment. The risk of stroke in hypertensive patients in the MEA region is high, and is higher than would be predicted using Framingham data, particularly for females. Hypertension appears to be poorly controlled in more than 80% of hypertensive patients in the MEA region.

  7. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  8. Nuclear fuel cycle risk assessment: survey and computer compilation of risk-related literature. [Once-through Cycle and Plutonium Recycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yates, K.R.; Schreiber, A.M.; Rudolph, A.W.

    1982-10-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has initiated the Fuel Cycle Risk Assessment Program to provide risk assessment methods for assistance in the regulatory process for nuclear fuel cycle facilities other than reactors. Both the once-through cycle and plutonium recycle are being considered. A previous report generated by this program defines and describes fuel cycle facilities, or elements, considered in the program. This report, the second from the program, describes the survey and computer compilation of fuel cycle risk-related literature. Sources of available information on the design, safety, and risk associated with the defined set of fuel cycle elements were searched and documents obtained were catalogued and characterized with respect to fuel cycle elements and specific risk/safety information. Both US and foreign surveys were conducted. Battelle's computer-based BASIS information management system was used to facilitate the establishment of the literature compilation. A complete listing of the literature compilation and several useful indexes are included. Future updates of the literature compilation will be published periodically. 760 annotated citations are included.

  9. Feedback Survey on the Usability of the OFFERA Method for Assessing an Exposure Risks of Computer Work Related to WMSDs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahman Mohd Nasrull Abdol

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The OFFERA method was designed to assess the exposure of the office workstation risk factors associated with WMSDs. This method involved six domains which include chair, desk, input device, monitor, accessories, and the environment. The purpose of this study was to assess the usability of the OFFERA method for assessing exposure risks of computer work related to WMSDs. The participants were trained to conduct the OFFERA method. Trial assessments on three different office jobs were conducted. The usability of the OFFERA method was identified based on the feedback questionnaire survey obtained from 44 practitioners (undergraduate students after the training. From the usability test, the OFFERA method was found be easy to use (mean 4.48 ± 0.698 and quick to use (mean 4.48 ± 0.821. However, the observers found that the font used was too small hence it was difficult to read the instruction (mean 3.93 ± 1.096. The pictures or illustrations in the OFFERA tool were also recorded as unclear based on the relatively low score for 18 items (mean 3.73± 1.128. Besides that, all participants agreed that OFFERA method is user-friendly, cost effective and applicable to a wide range of office-related activities.

  10. Assessing the risk of self-diagnosed malaria in urban informal settlements of Nairobi using self-reported morbidity survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mugisha Frederick

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Because of the belief that Nairobi is a low risk zone for malaria, little empirical data exists on malaria risk in the area. The aim of this study was to explore the risk of perceived malaria and some associated factors in Nairobi informal settlements using self-reported morbidity survey. Methods The survey was conducted from May to August 2004 on 7,288 individuals in two informal settlements of Nairobi. Participants were asked to report illnesses they experienced in the past 14 days. Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of perceived-malaria. The model included variables such as site of residence, age, ethnicity and number of reported symptoms. Results Participants reported 165 illnesses among which malaria was the leading cause (28.1%. The risk of perceived-malaria was significantly higher in Viwandani compared to Korogocho (OR 1.61, 95%CI: 1.10–2.26. Participants in age group 25–39 years had significantly higher odds of perceived-malaria compared to those under-five years (OR 2.07, 95%CI: 1.43–2.98. The Kikuyu had reduced odds of perceived-malaria compared to other ethnic groups. Individuals with five and more symptoms had higher odds compared to those with no symptoms (OR 23.69, 95%CI: 12.98–43.23. Conclusion Malaria was the leading cause of illness as perceived by the residents in the two informal settlements. This was rational as the number of reported symptoms was highly associated with the risk of reporting the illness. These results highlight the need for a more comprehensive assessment of malaria epidemiology in Nairobi to be able to offer evidence-based guidance to policy on malaria in Kenya and particularly in Nairobi.

  11. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  13. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  14. Development and evaluation of the McKnight Risk Factor Survey for assessing potential risk and protective factors for disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shisslak, C M; Renger, R; Sharpe, T; Crago, M; McKnight, K M; Gray, N; Bryson, S; Estes, L S; Parnaby, O G; Killen, J; Taylor, C B

    1999-03-01

    To describe the development, test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and convergent validity of the McKnight Risk Factor Survey-III (MRFS-III). The MRFS-III was designed to assess a number of potential risk and protective factors for the development of disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls. Several versions of the MRFS were pilot tested before the MRFS-III was administered to a sample of 651 4th through 12th- grade girls to establish its psychometric properties. Most of the test-retest reliability coefficients of individual items on the MRFS-III were r > .40. Alpha coefficients for each risk and protective factor domain on the MRFS-III were also computed. The majority of these coefficients were r > .60. High convergent validity coefficients were obtained for specific items on the MRFS-III and measures of self-esteem (Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale) and weight concerns (Weight Concerns Scale). The test-retest reliability, internal consistency, and convergent validity of the MRFS-III suggest that it is a useful new instrument to assess potential risk and protective factors for the development of disordered eating in preadolescent and adolescent girls.

  15. Cross-sectional Serologic Assessment of Immunity to Poliovirus in Differential Risk Areas of India: India Seroprevalence Survey - 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Mohammad; Bahl, Sunil; Kunwar, Abhishek

    2016-08-07

    To assess the seroprevalence against all three poliovirus serotypes in traditional high risk areas in Bihar, lowest routine immunization coverage areas in Madhya Pradesh and migrant population living in Mumbai urban slums. Cross-sectional Survey. Subjects selected by house to house visit (community based) and transported to government health facilities for further study procedures. 1137 randomly selected healthy infants 6-11 months of age residing in the selected high-risk areas. Serum samples from the study site were shipped to Enterovirus Research Centre (ERC), Mumbai to determine the neutralizing antibodies against all three poliovirus serotypes. Children with a reciprocal antibody titer ≥1:8 were considered seropositive to the specific poliovirus. Overall, seroprevalence in all the three study areas was 98%, 98% and 91% against poliovirus type-1, type-2 and type-3, respectively. Bihar had a seroprevalence of 99%, 99% and 92% against type-1, type-2 and type-3 respectively. Corresponding figures for Madhya Pradesh and Mumbai were 98%, 99% and 88% and 98%, 97% and 94%, respectively. The study found high seroprevalence against all three poliovirus types not only in the traditional high-risk areas for polio in India, but even in the areas known to have low routine immunization coverage and among the migratory clusters living in Mumbai urban slums. Type-2 seroprevalence was found to be high. These findings are reassuring against the threat of emergence of circulating vaccine derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) in the country subsequent to switch from trivalent oral polio vaccine to bivalent oral polio vaccine in the routine immunization schedule from April 2016.

  16. An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Air Force Risk Management Practices in Program Acquisition Using Survey Instrument Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-18

    Engineering Effectiveness Survey. CMU/SEI-2012-SR-009. Carnegie Mellon University. November 2012. Field, Andy. Discovering Statistics Using SPSS , 3rd...enough into the survey to begin answering questions on risk practices. All of the data statistical analysis will be performed using SPSS . Prior to...probabilistically using distributions for likelihood and impact. Statistical methods like Monte Carlo can more comprehensively evaluate the cost and

  17. Use of global coronary heart disease risk assessment in practice: a cross-sectional survey of a sample of U.S. physicians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shillinglaw Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global coronary heart disease (CHD risk assessment is recommended to guide primary preventive pharmacotherapy. However, little is known about physicians' understanding and use of global CHD risk assessment. Our objective was to examine US physicians' awareness, use, and attitudes regarding global CHD risk assessment in clinical practice, and how these vary by provider specialty. Methods Using a web-based survey of US family physicians, general internists, and cardiologists, we examined awareness of tools available to calculate CHD risk, method and use of CHD risk assessment, attitudes towards CHD risk assessment, and frequency of using CHD risk assessment to guide recommendations of aspirin, lipid-lowering and blood pressure (BP lowering therapies for primary prevention. Characteristics of physicians indicating they use CHD risk assessments were compared in unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Results A total of 952 physicians completed the questionnaire, with 92% reporting awareness of tools available to calculate CHD global risk. Among those aware of such tools, over 80% agreed that CHD risk calculation is useful, improves patient care, and leads to better decisions about recommending preventive therapies. However, only 41% use CHD risk assessment in practice. The most commonly reported barrier to CHD risk assessment is that it is too time consuming. Among respondents who calculate global CHD risk, 69% indicated they use it to guide lipid lowering therapy recommendations; 54% use it to guide aspirin therapy recommendations; and 48% use it to guide BP lowering therapy. Only 40% of respondents who use global CHD risk routinely tell patients their risk. Use of a personal digital assistant or smart phone was associated with reported use of CHD risk assessment (adjusted OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.17-2.12. Conclusions Reported awareness of tools to calculate global CHD risk appears high, but the majority of physicians in this sample do not

  18. Equine peripheral dental caries: An epidemiological survey assessing prevalence and possible risk factors in Western Australian horses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, K; Kelty, E; Tennant, M

    2018-01-01

    Peripheral dental caries is defined as macroscopic destruction of the calcified dental tissues and can cause considerable dental pathology and pain. It appears to occur at a high prevalence in Western Australian horses. At present, risk factors for the condition are poorly understood, making treatment and prevention difficult. To assess the prevalence of and potential risk factors for peripheral caries in Western Australian horses. Cross-sectional, epidemiological study. A survey of 500 Western Australian horses was administered in two sections. The first section was completed by the owner and referred to the horse's signalment, diet and husbandry conditions. The second section was completed by veterinarians and focused on the horse's oral health. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess risk factors associated with peripheral caries. Peripheral caries was present in 58.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 54.5-63.1%) of surveyed horses. Breed was significantly associated with peripheral caries, with Warmbloods (odds ratio [OR] 0.44, 95% CI 0.24-0.82; P = 0.009) and Western breeds (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.19-0.78; P = 0.008) being less likely to have peripheral caries than Thoroughbreds. Dietary risk factors included oaten hay (OR 2.90, 95% CI 1.87-4.53; P<0.001). A meadow hay-based diet was protective (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.27-0.80; P = 0.005). Horses with access to quality pasture all year were less likely to have peripheral caries than horses without access to grazing (OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.15-0.66; P = 0.002), as were horses on groundwater compared with horses on rainwater (OR 3.35, 95% CI 1.65-6.78; P = 0.001), drinking water (OR 2.03, 95% CI 1.14-3.62; P = 0.016) or dam water (OR 3.53, 95% CI 1.08-11.53; P = 0.037). Peripheral caries was positively correlated with periodontal disease (OR 4.53, 95% CI 2.91-7.06; P<0.001) and feed packing (feed present between the teeth without significant periodontal pocketing) (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.32-2.85; P = 0.001). Not

  19. Assessing tobacco marketing regulation implementation level in Georgia: evidence from Non Communicable Disease Risk Factors STEPS Survey Georgia 2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lela Sturua

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Tobacco use continues to be the leading cause of preventable deaths worldwide; the biggest burden of it falls on low- and middle-income countries and this trend is expected to widen further in case of inaction. The overall objective of the study is to describe and analyze the findings of the Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors STEPS Survey Georgia 2016 related to tobacco marketing regulation. Methods The current study in Georgia was a population-based STEPS survey of randomly selected adults aged 18-69 within each sex and 10-year age-group. A multi-stage cluster sample design was used to produce representative data for that age range in Georgia. A total of 5554 adults participated in the current survey. We assessed level o tobacco marketing regulation implementation in Georgia. Results Study results reported high prevalence of tobacco use in Georgian population (31.1% (95 % CI: 29.0-33.1. Study findings showed that about half of the current smokers are exposed to anti-tobacco information on TV or radio 52.3% (95% CI: 48.9 - 55.7, whereas 35.5% (95% CI: 32.2 - 38.8 reported being exposed to cigarette marketing at points of sales of tobacco products and 4.7% (95% CI: 3.2-6.1 to any cigarette promotions. Health warnings on cigarette packs was reported to be noticed by 88.7% (95% CI: 85.8-91.6 of current smokers; only 33% (95% CI: 25.4 - 40.7 of them reported having thought about quitting because of these warnings. Conclusions The prevalence of smoking in Georgia is high compared to other countries of the European Region and it is very likely that smoking related NCDs burden will increase. Stricter tobacco control policies coupled with anti-tobacco media campaigns can address this problem. Improved health warnings on tobacco packages and total ban of tobacco advertisement, promotion and sponsorship should be implemented in order to overcome prevailed tobacco industry marketing strategies.

  20. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  1. Methane Risk Assessment in Underground Mines by Means of a Survey by the Panel of Experts (Sope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugeniusz Krause

    2014-01-01

    Originality/value: The obtained values of the indicators of methane risk assessment and analysis of their changes showed that the proposed method can be an important element in the design and construction of a modern methane safety system in coal mines. It provides the possibility of controlling this risk and enables the minimization of its consequences in accordance with the criteria of their acceptance, adopted in this paper. The method does not replace the currently used methods of methane risk assessment, but complements them in a significant and modern way.

  2. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  3. Disentangling determinants of insecticide use to manage production, food security, and health risks in Cambodia and Vietnam: evidence from household surveys and risk-assessment experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Zhang, PhD

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Insect pest problems are among the main causes of crop yield losses in global agriculture. Insecticides protect households from food-security and income shocks, but can induce human health and environmental risks. Semi-subsistence farm households (SSFHs, which farm for both consumption and market, make decisions about crop management and output allocation to maximise food consumption, income, and health outcomes, depending on their risk preferences and other household and community characteristics. In this study, we aimed to disentangle the determinants of insecticide use by SSFHs and identify whether health consideration has had any effect on insecticide use. Methods: In this econometric analysis, we used field data collected from household surveys and risk-assessment experiments in 2014 in Cambodia and Vietnam to analyse insecticide use among more than 1000 SSFHs. Findings: We found that crops (except for rice whose outputs were used to a greater degree for consumption were less likely to be sprayed with insecticides or were sprayed fewer times. Health-conscious households (as indicated by the use of modern-fuel cooking stoves and reported concern over food safety as a main reason for maintaining home gardens consistently refrained from spraying, but this tendency diminished as output allocation shifted toward commercial use, suggesting a possible moral-hazard phenomenon. Farmers were more likely to apply insecticides to crops of high food security or dietary importance, such as rice, although the difference between fresh produce and grain produce in risk of insecticide residue exposure might also have contributed to the difference in insecticide use between rice and non-rice crops. The two samples from Cambodia and Vietnam had similarities regarding the deterring effect of health consideration and differences in other factors affecting insecticide use, such as risk preference, landholding size, household head's education level

  4. BASHH 2016 UK national audit and survey of HIV testing, risk assessment and follow-up: case note audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhaduri, Sumit; Curtis, Hilary; McClean, Hugo; Sullivan, Ann K

    2018-01-01

    This national audit demonstrated discrepancies between actual practice and that indicated by clinic policies following enquiry about alcohol, recreational drugs and chemsex use. Clinics were more likely to enquire about risk behaviour if this was clinic policy or routine practice. Previous testing was the most common reason for refusing HIV testing, although 33% of men who have sex with men had a prior test of more than three months ago. Of the group declining due to recent exposure in the window period, 21/119 cases had an exposure within the four weeks prior to presentation, but had a previous risk not covered by previous testing. Recommendations include provision of risk assessments for alcohol, recreational drug use and chemsex, documenting reasons for HIV test refusal, provision of HIV point-of-care testing, follow-up for cases at higher risk of HIV and advice about community testing or self-sampling/testing.

  5. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  6. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  7. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  8. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  9. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  10. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  11. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  12. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  13. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  14. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  15. Ethyl Carbamate in Alcoholic Beverages from Mexico (Tequila, Mezcal, Bacanora, Sotol and Guatemala (Cuxa: Market Survey and Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jürgen Rehm

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Ethyl carbamate (EC is a recognized genotoxic carcinogen, with widespread occurrence in fermented foods and beverages. No data on its occurrence in alcoholic beverages from Mexico or Central America is available. Samples of agave spirits including tequila, mezcal, bacanora and sotol (n=110, and of the sugarcane spirit cuxa (n=16 were purchased in Mexico and Guatemala, respectively, and analyzed for EC. The incidence of EC contamination was higher in Mexico than in Guatemala, however, concentrations were below international guideline levels (<0.15 mg/L. Risk assessment found the Margin of Exposure (MOE in line with that of European spirits. It is therefore unlikely that EC plays a role in high rates of liver cirrhosis reported in Mexico.

  16. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  17. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  18. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  19. Evaluating a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback: what does an expert focus group yield compared to a web-based end-user survey?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosbergen, Sandra; Mahieu, Guy R; Laan, Eva K; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A; Jaspers, Monique Wm; Peek, Niels

    2014-01-02

    Increasingly, Web-based health applications are developed for the prevention and management of chronic diseases. However, their reach and utilization is often disappointing. Qualitative evaluations post-implementation can be used to inform the optimization process and ultimately enhance their adoption. In current practice, such evaluations are mainly performed with end-user surveys. However, a review approach by experts in a focus group may be easier to administer and might provide similar results. The aim of this study was to assess whether industrial design engineers in a focus group would address the same issues as end users in a Web-based survey when evaluating a commercial Web-based health risk assessment (HRA) with tailored feedback. Seven Dutch companies used the HRA as part of their corporate health management strategy. Employees using the HRA (N=2289) and 10 independent industrial designers were invited to participate in the study. The HRA consisted of four components: (1) an electronic health questionnaire, (2) biometric measurements, (3) laboratory evaluation, and (4) individually tailored feedback generated by decision support software. After participating in the HRA as end users, both end users and designers evaluated the program. End users completed an evaluation questionnaire that included a free-text field. Designers participated in a focus group discussion. Constructs from user satisfaction and technology acceptance theories were used to categorize and compare the remarks from both evaluations. We assessed and qualitatively analyzed 294 remarks of 189 end users and 337 remarks of 6 industrial designers, pertaining to 295 issues in total. Of those, 137 issues were addressed in the end-user survey and 148 issues in the designer focus group. Only 7.3% (10/137) of the issues addressed in the survey were also addressed in the focus group. End users made more remarks about the usefulness of the HRA and prior expectations that were not met. Designers made

  20. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  1. Turkish assessment of SURF (SUrvey of Risk Factor Management) study: Control rates of cardiovascular risk factors derived from databases of 15 different levels of health centers in Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokgözoğlu, Lale; Oğuz, Aytekin; Balcı, Mustafa Kemal; Temizhan, Ahmet; Güldal Altunoğlu, Esma; Bektaş, Osman; Aslan, Güler; Iyigün, Özgün; Kara, Ahmet; Tanrıverdi Pınar, Handan; Yavuz, Saffet; Tekin, Murat; Ercan, Saffet; Çelik, Selda; Sezgin Meriçliler, Özlem; Bozkurt Çakır, İrem

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the adherence to recommendations for secondary prevention and the achievement of treatment targets for the control of risk factors in patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) who were followed-up at various healthcare facilities in Turkey. According to the protocol of the international Survey of Risk Factor Management study, questionnaire forms were completed and demographic, anthropometric, and laboratory data of CHD patients who were followed-up at a total of 15 selected primary, secondary, and tertiary healthcare centers were recorded. Among a total of 724 CHD patients (69.8% male; mean age: 63.3±10.7 years) included in the study, 18.4% were current smokers, only 19.1% had normal body mass index, and 22.1% had waist circumference below the limit of abdominal obesity. Physical activity was insufficient in 53% of the patients, 47.3% had low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol value, 46% had triglyceride level above 150 mg/dL, and 67% had glycated hemoglobin value of 6.5% or above. Of all the patients, 88.1% were using antiplatelet drugs, 71.4% were using beta-blockers, 55.7% were using statins, and 41.9% were using angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers. Blood pressure was under control in 56.7% of the hypertensive patients using antihypertensive drugs, and the proportion of diabetic patients who reached glycemic control targets using antidiabetic drugs was 35.9%. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was below 70 mg/dL in 12.2% of the patients using statins. According to the data obtained, among Turkish CHD patients, the control rate of cardiovascular risk factors is low, and implementation of the recommendations regarding lifestyle modification and medication use for secondary prevention in the current guidelines are insufficient.

  2. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  3. A Survey of occurrence of toxogenic fungi and mycotoxins in pig feed samples-Use in evaluation of risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragan Milicevic

    Full Text Available In order to assess of risk assessment, the aim of this paper was to provide good and detailed insight into the level of contamination of complete feedmixes intended for fattening swine from mycotoxin-producing fungi and mycotoxins (n=18. Isolation and quantitative enumeration of fungal propagules were done on solid media using the standard microbiological procedure. These plates were incubated the number of colonies was determined and thent on the basis of characteristic colonies and microscopic analysis was performed to identify genera and species of moulds. Isolates identified as Aspergillus and Penicillium species were subjected to molecular characterization of the presence of genes responsible for the synthesis of OTA (polyketide synthase gene-PKS. Total fungal counts (CFU/g ranged from 0,5x105 do 4x106. From a total samples analysed, seven samples had fungal counts higher than the limit established by Serbian regulations (3x105. During a mycological analysis of complete feedmixes intended for fattening swine, a total of six genera and 14 species of moulds were identified of which the most frequent one was of the genus Penicillium (94,4% while the moulds from Fusarium genere isolated in 55,5% and Paecilomyces in 44,4% of the samples from investigated localities. Other fungi from the genera Aspergillus (22%, Mycor (11,1% and Alternaria (5,5% were represented in a less amount. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR is a set of 18 isolates of the DNA belonging to families Penicillium and Aspergillus. The sequences of PCR reaction products in three samples were compared with nucleotide sequences of genes for poliketid synthase (PKS from Penicillium species and found that the samples possess PKS sequence. The traditional methods for identification of ochratoxin-producing fungi are time-consuming and labor-intensive. Rapid and specific detection of ochratoxinproducing fungi is important for ensuring microbiological quality and safety of feed and food

  4. Assessment Matters: Moving beyond Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wise, Vicki L.; Barham, Mary Ann

    2012-01-01

    The August 16, 2011, "Chronicle of Higher Education" article "Want Data? Ask Students. Again and Again" by Sara Lipka posits that in higher education there is a culture of oversurveying students and too often relying on surveys as the main, or only, way of assessing the impact of programs and services on student satisfaction and learning. Because…

  5. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  6. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  7. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  8. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  9. Assessing public flood risk perception for understanding the level of risk preparedness - Evidence from a community-based survey (the Bend Subcarpathians, Romania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balteanu, Dan; Micu, Dana; Dumitrascu, Monica; Chendes, Viorel; Dragota, Carmen; Kucsicsa, Gheorghita; Grigorescu, Ines; Persu, Mihaela; Costache, Andra

    2016-04-01

    Floods (slow-onset and rapid) are among the costliest hydro-meteorological hazards in Romania, with strong societal and economic impacts, especially in small rural settlements, with a limited adaptive capacity to their adverse effects induced by the regional socio-economic context (e.g. aging population, low economic power). The study-area is located in the Bend Subcarpathians (Romania), a region with high tectonic mobility (the Seismic Vrancea Region), active slope processes (e.g. shallow and deep-seated landslides, mud flow, gully erosion) and increasing frequency of flash floods associated to heavy rainfalls. The study was conducted in the framework of the project "Vulnerability of the environment and human settlements to floods in the context of Global Environmental Change - VULMIN" (PN-II-PT-PCCA-2011-3.1-1587), funded by the Ministry of National Education over the 2012-2016 period (http://www.igar-vulmin.ro). Prior research derived valuable insights into the local population vulnerability to extreme hydro-meteorological events, revealing an increased individual experience to past hydrological events, a high level of worry associated to flood recurrence, a low rate of the perceived trustworthiness in national institutions and authorities, as well as evident differences between the perception of community members and local authorities in terms of risk preparedness. In the present study, an attempt has been made for developing an advanced understanding of the current level of flood risk preparedness within some communities strongly affected by the floods of 1970-1975, 2005 and 2010. The recent events had a significant impact on local communities and infrastructure in terms of the financial losses, causing a visible stress and even psychological trauma on some residents of the most affected households. The selected communities are located in areas affected by recurrent hydro-meteorological hazards (floods and flash floods), with return periods below 10 years. A

  10. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  11. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  12. An approach to security risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  13. Toxic element mobility assessment and modeling for regional geo-scientific survey to support Risk Assessment in a European Union context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdaal, Ahmed; Jordan, Gyozo; Bartha, Andras; Fugedi, Ubul

    2013-04-01

    The Mine Waste Directive 2006/21/EC requires the risk-based inventory of all mine waste sites in Europe. The geochemical documentation concerning inert classification and ranking of the mine wastes requires detailed field study and laboratory testing and analyses of waste material to assess the Acid Mine Drainage potential and toxic element mobility. The procedure applied in this study used a multi-level decision support scheme including: 1) expert judgment, 2) data review, 3) representative field sampling and laboratory analysis of formations listed in the Inert Mining Waste List, and 4) requesting available laboratory analysis data from selected operating mines. Based on expert judgment, the listed formations were classified into three categories. A: inert B: probably inert, but has to be checked, C: probably not inert, has to be examined. This paper discusses the heavy metal contamination risk assessment (RA) in leached quarry-mine waste sites in Hungary. In total 34 mine waste sites (including tailing lagoons and heaps of both abandoned mines and active quarries) have been selected for scientific testing using the EU Pre-selection Protocol. Over 93 field samples have been collected from the mine sites including Ore (Andesite and Ryolite), Coal (Lignite, black and brown coals), Peat, Alginite, Bauxite, Clay and Limestone. Laboratory analyses of the total toxic element content (aqua regia extraction), the mobile toxic element content (deionized water leaching) and the analysis of different forms of sulfur (sulfuric acid potential) ) on the base of Hungarian GKM Decree No. 14/2008. (IV. 3) concerning mining waste management. A detailed geochemical study together with spatial analysis and GIS has been performed to derive a geochemically sound contamination RA of the mine waste sites. Key parameters such as heavy metal and sulphur content, in addition to the distance to the nearest surface and ground water bodies, or to sensitive receptors such as settlements and

  14. Survey and Risk Assessment of Apis mellifera (Hymenoptera: Apidae) Exposure to Neonicotinoid Pesticides in Urban, Rural, and Agricultural Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, T J; Culbert, E M; Felsot, A S; Hebert, V R; Sheppard, W S

    2016-04-01

    A comparative assessment of apiaries in urban, rural, and agricultural areas was undertaken in 2013 and 2014 to examine potential honey bee colony exposure to neonicotinoid insecticides from pollen foraging. Apiaries ranged in size from one to hundreds of honey bee colonies, and included those operated by commercial, sideline (semicommercial), and hobbyist beekeepers. Residues in and on wax and beebread (stored pollen in the hive) were evaluated for the nitro-substituted neonicotinoid insecticides imidacloprid and its olefin metabolite and the active ingredients clothianidin, thiamethoxam, and dinotefuran. Beebread and comb wax collected from hives in agricultural landscapes were more likely to have detectable residues of thiamethoxam and clothianidin than that collected from hives in rural or urban areas (∼50% of samples vs. bee behavior or colony health.

  15. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  16. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  17. Economic assessment of landslide risks in the Swabian Alb, Germany ‒ research framework and first results of homeowners' and experts' surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Blöchl

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Landslide risks are frequently underestimated by political and economic actors as well as by the local population. The InterRisk Assess research project is working to develop a systematic approach to the analysis and evaluation of economic landslide risks at a local and regional scale. Its major aims are to determine the extent of potential damage and economic losses caused by landslides, to analyze individual and collective patterns of risk assessment and to develop recommendations for pro-active risk management. The research methodology includes GIS-based risk analyses and interviews with relevant actors in politics, administration and planning, private households and land owners. The research findings will facilitate a better-informed, efficient and sustainable use of natural resources and natural risks. The research project also aims to contribute to methodological progress in risk research.

  18. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  19. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  20. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  1. Assessing asthma control and associated risk factors among persons with current asthma - findings from the child and adult Asthma Call-back Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahran, Hatice S; Bailey, Cathy M; Qin, Xiaoting; Moorman, Jeanne E

    2015-04-01

    Monitoring the level of asthma control is important in determining the effectiveness of current treatment which may decrease the frequency and intensity of symptoms and functional limitations. Uncontrolled asthma has been associated with decreased quality of life and increased health care use. The objectives of this study were to assess the level of asthma control and identify related risk factors among persons with current asthma. Using the 2006 to 2010 BRFSS child and adult Asthma Call-back Survey, asthma control was classified as well-controlled or uncontrolled (not-well-controlled or very-poorly-controlled) using three impairment measures: daytime symptoms, night-time symptoms, and taking short-acting β2-agonists for symptom control. Multivariate logistic regression identified predictors of asthma control. Fifty percent of adults and 38.4% of children with current asthma had uncontrolled asthma. About 63% of children and 53% of adults with uncontrolled asthma were on long-term asthma control medications. Among children, uncontrolled asthma was significantly associated with being younger than 5 years, having annual household income asthma (low educational attainment, low income, cigarette smoking, and co-morbid conditions including obesity and depression) could improve asthma control.

  2. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  3. Program and plans of the U.S. Geological Survey for producing information needed in National Seismic hazards and risk assessment, fiscal years 1980-84

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Walter W.

    1979-01-01

    In accordance with the provisions of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-124), the U.S. Geological Survey has developed comprehensive plans for producing information needed to assess seismic hazards and risk on a national scale in fiscal years 1980-84. These plans are based on a review of the needs of Federal Government agencies, State and local government agencies, engineers and scientists engaged in consulting and research, professional organizations and societies, model code groups, and others. The Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act provided an unprecedented opportunity for participation in a national program by representatives of State and local governments, business and industry, the design professions, and the research community. The USGS and the NSF (National Science Foundation) have major roles in the national program. The ultimate goal of the program is to reduce losses from earthquakes. Implementation of USGS research in the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program requires the close coordination of responsibility between Federal, State and local governments. The projected research plan in national seismic hazards and risk for fiscal years 1980-84 will be accomplished by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers. The latter group will participate through grants and contracts. The research plan calls for (1) national maps based on existing methods, (2) improved definition of earthquake source zones nationwide, (3) development of improved methodology, (4) regional maps based on the improved methodology, and (5) post-earthquake investigations. Maps and reports designed to meet the needs, priorities, concerns, and recommendations of various user groups will be the products of this research and provide the technical basis for improved implementation.

  4. INFORMATION SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT USING EXISTING LEGAL AND METHODOLOGICAL BASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Trubei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides a survey of the existing regulatory framework for information security riskmanagement. Practical methods for information security risk and vulnerability assessment are proposed.

  5. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  6. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  7. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  8. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  9. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  10. Caribbean Marine Mammal Assessment Vessel Surveys

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data sets are a compilation of large vessel surveys for marine mammal stock assessments in Caribbean waters conducted during 2000-2001. These surveys were...

  11. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  12. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  13. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  14. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  15. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  16. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  17. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  18. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  19. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  20. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  1. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  2. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  3. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  4. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  5. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  6. Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, J; Lee, K; Walsh, D; Kim, S W; Sleeman, J M; Lee, H

    2018-02-01

    Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts' opinions. To examine the experts' perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and climate

  7. Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Jusun; Lee, Kyunglee; Walsh, Daniel P.; Kim, SangWha; Sleeman, Jonathan M.; Lee, Hang

    2018-01-01

    Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts’ opinions. To examine the experts’ perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and

  8. The Source, Spatial Distribution and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Soil from the Pearl River Delta Based on the National Multi-Purpose Regional Geochemical Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lingyan; Guo, Shuhai; Wu, Bo

    2015-01-01

    The data on the heavy metal content at different soil depths derived from a multi-purpose regional geochemical survey in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) were analyzed using ArcGIS 10.0. By comparing their spatial distributions and areas, the sources of heavy metals (Cd, Hg, As and Pb) were quantitatively identified and explored. Netted measuring points at 25 ×25 km were set over the entire PRD according to the geochemical maps. Based on the calculation data obtained from different soil depths, the concentrations of As and Cd in a large area of the PRD exceeded the National Second-class Standard. The spatial disparity of the geometric centers in the surface soil and deep soil showed that As in the surface soil mainly came from parent materials, while Cd had high consistency in different soil profiles because of deposition in the soil forming process. The migration of Cd also resulted in a considerable ecological risk to the Beijiang and Xijiang River watershed. The potential ecological risk index followed the order Cd ≥ Hg > Pb > As. According to the sources, the distribution trends and the characteristics of heavy metals in the soil from the perspective of the whole area, the Cd pollution should be repaired, especially in the upper reaches of the Xijiang and Beijiang watershed to prevent risk explosion while the pollution of Hg and Pb should be controlled in areas with intense human activity, and supervision during production should be strengthened to maintain the ecological balance of As.

  9. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  10. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  11. Spatially valid data of atmospheric deposition of heavy metals and nitrogen derived by moss surveys for pollution risk assessments of ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröder, Winfried; Nickel, Stefan; Schönrock, Simon; Meyer, Michaela; Wosniok, Werner; Harmens, Harry; Frontasyeva, Marina V; Alber, Renate; Aleksiayenak, Julia; Barandovski, Lambe; Carballeira, Alejo; Danielsson, Helena; de Temmermann, Ludwig; Godzik, Barbara; Jeran, Zvonka; Karlsson, Gunilla Pihl; Lazo, Pranvera; Leblond, Sebastien; Lindroos, Antti-Jussi; Liiv, Siiri; Magnússon, Sigurður H; Mankovska, Blanka; Martínez-Abaigar, Javier; Piispanen, Juha; Poikolainen, Jarmo; Popescu, Ion V; Qarri, Flora; Santamaria, Jesus Miguel; Skudnik, Mitja; Špirić, Zdravko; Stafilov, Trajce; Steinnes, Eiliv; Stihi, Claudia; Thöni, Lotti; Uggerud, Hilde Thelle; Zechmeister, Harald G

    2016-06-01

    For analysing element input into ecosystems and associated risks due to atmospheric deposition, element concentrations in moss provide complementary and time-integrated data at high spatial resolution every 5 years since 1990. The paper reviews (1) minimum sample sizes needed for reliable, statistical estimation of mean values at four different spatial scales (European and national level as well as landscape-specific level covering Europe and single countries); (2) trends of heavy metal (HM) and nitrogen (N) concentrations in moss in Europe (1990-2010); (3) correlations between concentrations of HM in moss and soil specimens collected across Norway (1990-2010); and (4) canopy drip-induced site-specific variation of N concentration in moss sampled in seven European countries (1990-2013). While the minimum sample sizes on the European and national level were achieved without exception, for some ecological land classes and elements, the coverage with sampling sites should be improved. The decline in emission and subsequent atmospheric deposition of HM across Europe has resulted in decreasing HM concentrations in moss between 1990 and 2010. In contrast, hardly any changes were observed for N in moss between 2005, when N was included into the survey for the first time, and 2010. In Norway, both, the moss and the soil survey data sets, were correlated, indicating a decrease of HM concentrations in moss and soil. At the site level, the average N deposition inside of forests was almost three times higher than the average N deposition outside of forests.

  12. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  13. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  14. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  15. 2017 Emerging Technology Domains Risk Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    REV-03.18.2016.0 2017 Emerging Technology Domains Risk Survey Daniel Klinedinst Joel Land Kyle O’Meara October 2017 TECHNICAL REPORT CMU/SEI...Distribution Statement A: Approved for Public Release. Distribution is Unlimited. List of Tables Table 1: New and Emerging Technologies 2 Table 2: Security...Impact of New and Emerging Technologies 4 Table 3: Severity Classifications and Impact Scores 5 CMU/SEI-2017-TR-008 | SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  17. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  19. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  20. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  1. How nutritional risk is assessed and managed in European hospitals: a survey of 21,007 patients findings from the 2007-2008 cross-sectional nutritionDay survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schindler, Karin; Pernicka, Elisabeth; Laviano, Alessandro; Howard, Pat; Schütz, Tatjana; Bauer, Peter; Grecu, Irina; Jonkers, Cora; Kondrup, Jens; Ljungqvist, Olle; Mouhieddine, Mohamed; Pichard, Claude; Singer, Pierre; Schneider, Stéphane; Schuh, Christian; Hiesmayr, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Recognition and treatment of undernutrition in hospitalized patients are not often a priority in clinical practice. We investigated how the nutritional risk of patients is determined and whether such assessment influences daily nutritional care across Europe and in Israeli hospitals. 1217 units from

  2. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  3. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  4. Assessment of microbial contamination and oral health risks associated with handling of Indian currency notes circulating in Bengaluru city: A cross-sectional survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D P Narayan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Accumulated data obtained over the last 20 years on the microbial status and survival of pathogens on currency notes indicate that this could represent a potential cause of sporadic cases of food borne illness. Objectives: To identify the micro-organisms present on the Indian currency notes and the oral health risks due to microbial contamination of Indian currency notes circulating in Bengaluru city. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted and the Indian currency notes of various denominations (Rs. 10, Rs. 20, Rs. 50, Rs. 100, Rs. 500, and Rs. 1000 were collected from fruit vendors, hawkers, vegetable vendors, bus conductors, railway ticket counters, hotel counters, and butchers. Sample size was determined to be 70 Indian currency notes. Convenience sampling technique was used. Microbiological analysis of the collected currency notes was done. Results: The contamination rate of collected currency notes from the butchers and hawkers were 80% and 60% respectively. Staphylococcus aureus was present on 15 currency notes (21.42% and was found to be higher in Rs. 10 than in other currency denominations. Streptococcus pyogenes was present on four currency notes (5.714% of Rs. 10. Conclusion: The Indian currency notes circulating in Bengaluru city were contaminated with pathogenic bacteria. The oral health risks due to microbial contamination of Indian currency notes are acute pharyngitis, peritonsillar or retropharyngeal abscess, mastoiditis, sinusitis, otitis media, mild cellulitis, angular cheilitis, some endodontic infections, osteomyelitis of the jaw, parotitis, and oral mucositis.

  5. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  6. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  7. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  8. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  9. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  10. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  11. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  12. Atlantic Marine Mammal Assessment Vessel Surveys

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data sets are a compilation of large vessel surveys for marine mammal stock assessments in South Atlantic (Florida to Maryland) waters from 1994 to the...

  13. Building Assessment Survey and Evaluation Data (BASE)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Building Assessment Survey and Evaluation (BASE) study was a five year study to characterize determinants of indoor air quality and occupant perceptions in...

  14. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  15. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  16. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  17. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  18. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  19. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  20. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  1. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  2. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  3. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  4. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  5. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  6. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  7. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  8. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  9. Applications of research from the U.S. Geological Survey program, assessment of regional earthquake hazards and risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gori, Paula L.

    1993-01-01

    engineering studies. Translated earthquake hazard maps have also been developed to identify areas that are particularly vulnerable to various causes of damage such as ground shaking, surface rupturing, and liquefaction. The implementation of earthquake hazard reduction plans are now under way in various communities in Utah. The results of a survey presented in this paper indicate that technical public officials (planners and building officials) have an understanding of the earthquake hazards and how to mitigate the risks. Although the survey shows that the general public has a slightly lower concern about the potential for economic losses, they recognize the potential problems and can support a number of earthquake mitigation measures. The study suggests that many community groups along the Wasatch Front, including volunteer groups, business groups, and elected and appointed officials, are ready for action-oriented educational programs. These programs could lead to a significant reduction in the risks associated with earthquake hazards. A DATA BASE DESIGNED FOR URBAN SEISMIC HAZARDS STUDIES: A computerized data base has been designed for use in urban seismic hazards studies conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. The design includes file structures for 16 linked data sets, which contain geological, geophysical, and seismological data used in preparing relative ground response maps of large urban areas. The data base is organized along relational data base principles. A prototype urban hazards data base has been created for evaluation in two urban areas currently under investigation: the Wasatch Front region of Utah and the Puget Sound area of Washington. The initial implementation of the urban hazards data base was accomplished on a microcomputer using dBASE III Plus software and transferred to minicomputers and a work station. A MAPPING OF GROUND-SHAKING INTENSITIES FOR SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH: This paper documents the development of maps showing a

  10. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  11. Howard Hughes Medical Institute dose assessment survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Brien, S.L.; McDougall, M.M.; Barkley, W.E.

    1996-01-01

    Biomedical science researchers often express frustration that health physics practices vary widely between individual institutions. A survey examining both internal and external dose assessment practices was devised and mailed to fifty institutions supporting biomedical science research. The results indicate that health physics dose assessment practices and policies are highly variable. Factors which may contribute to the degree of variation are discussed. 2 tabs

  12. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  13. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  14. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  15. Caries Risk Assessment in School Children Using Reduced Cariogram Model

    OpenAIRE

    Taqi, Muhammad; Razak, Ishak Abdul; Ab-Murat, Norintan

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To estimate the percentage of children with low, moderate and high caries risk; and to determine the predictors of caries risk amongst 11-12 year old Pakistani school children. Methods: Subjects’ caries risk was assessed using the Cariogram programme. The survey was done among school children in Bhakkar district of Punjab, Pakistan. Caries and plaque level were assessed using the DMFT and Sillnes and Loe indices respectively, while diet content and frequency were assessed using a t...

  16. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  17. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  18. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  19. The Current Status of Graduate Training in Suicide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebling-Boccio, Dana E.; Jennings, Heather R.

    2013-01-01

    Directors and coordinators (n = 75) of graduate programs in school psychology approved by the National Association of School Psychologists (NASP) were surveyed regarding their training practices in suicide risk assessment. Respondents viewed the assessment of suicide risk as an important part of graduate instruction, and most believed that…

  20. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  1. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  2. The comet assay in Environmental Risk Assessment of marine pollutants: applications, assets and handicaps of surveying genotoxicity in non-model organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Marta; Costa, Pedro M

    2015-01-01

    Determining the genotoxic effects of pollutants has long been a priority in Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for coastal ecosystems, especially of complex areas such as estuaries and other confined waterbodies. The acknowledged link between DNA damage, mutagenicity and carcinogenicity to the exposure to certain toxicants has been responsible to the growing interest in determining the genotoxic effects of xenobiotics to wildlife as a measure of environmental risk. The comet assay, although widely employed in in vivo and in vitro toxicology, still holds many constraints in ERA, in large part owing to difficulties in obtaining conclusive cause-effect relationships from complex environments. Nevertheless, these challenges do not hinder the attempts to apply the alkaline comet assay on sentinel organisms, wild or subjected to bioassays in or ex situ (from fish to molluscs) as well to standardise protocols and establish general guidelines to the interpretation of findings. Fish have been regarded as an appealing subject due to the ease of performing the comet assay in whole blood. However, the application of the comet assay is becoming increasingly common in invertebrates (e.g. in molluscan haemocytes and solid tissues such as gills). Virtually all sorts of results have been obtained from the application of the comet assay in ERA (null, positive and inconclusive). However, it has become clear that interpreting DNA damage data from wild organisms is particularly challenging due to their ability to adapt to continuous environmental stressors, including toxicants. Also, the comet assay in non-model organisms for the purpose of ERA implies different constraints, assumptions and interpretation of findings, compared with the in vitro procedures from which most guidelines have been derived. This paper critically reviews the application of the comet assay in ERA, focusing on target organisms and tissues; protocol developments, case studies plus data handling and

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  4. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  5. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  7. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  8. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  9. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  10. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  11. What do experts stakeholders think about chemical risks and uncertainties. An Internet survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Assmuth, T.; Lyytimaeki, J.; Hilden, M.; Lindholm, M.; Munier, B.

    2007-07-01

    This report presents results from a web-based explorative survey on integrated risk assessment. The survey was conducted in the EU-funded project NoMiracle (Novel Methods for Risk Assessment of Cumulative Stressors in Europe) which develops methods for assessing cumulative risks from combined exposures to multiple stressors. The objectives of the survey were to give a general picture of perceptions and views among experts and stakeholders concerning risks, risk assessment and risk management. The survey focused on chemicals with an emphasis on information related to complex risks and uncertainties in a management context. The methodology of the survey combined traditional multiple choice questions and a novel approach that charted the importance of different types of information in two-dimensional graphs describing simultaneously use in regulatory procedures and public discussion. Another part was linked to new methods of presenting risks and explored the ranking of separate and cumulative risks in map grids. The survey was e-mailed to 952 recipients representing researchers, national and EU level administrators, enterprises, NGOs and international organizations, and most EU member states and some other countries. The response rate (26 %) can be considered acceptable but limits the possibilities to make quantitative claims concerning the views held by different groups although it gives an overview of the types of views one encounter among experts. A key finding was the pronounced variability of concepts and views regarding risks and uncertainties, and regarding information and knowledge about these. Opinions on risks and risk assessment, particularly on integrated risk assessment, on related principles, and on the role of experts are genuinely variable. They cannot be reduced to any simple model, and cannot (and need not) be dispelled in a forced manner. The observations should be taken into account in the development and application of novel methods for risk

  12. Quantified reliability and risk assessment methodology in safety evaluation and licensing: survey of practice and trends in E.C. countries; partial contribution in decision making, perpective of safety goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinck, W.F.

    1982-01-01

    Quantified reliability analysis of structures and systems and the quantified risk-concept is increasingly developed and applied in safety evaluation and in the licensing/regulatory process where deterministic approaches are however still predominant. A description of the types of application and a survey of the diversified opinions and the problem areas (e.g. the validity of input data, uncertainties in consequence modelling, human factors, common mode failures, etc.) are given. The significance of quantified risk assessment and comparisons, as one of the contributors in the solution to acceptability of modern technology such as nuclear power production, is discussed. Other contributions, such as benefit assessment and cost-efficiency of risk reduction, are also put into perspective within the decision-making process and in the problem of actual acceptance of new technologies. The growing need of developing and agreeing on overall safety objectives (how safe is safe enough) is finally discussed, in the light of the increasing diversity of approaches in the interconnected areas of accident hypotheses/sequences, siting parameters and technical bases for emergency planning; the latter problem being also closely connected to decisional processes for acceptability and to actual acceptance

  13. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  14. Assessment of health risks caused by air pollutants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nilsson, Robert.

    1991-02-01

    This report is a support document to an other report from the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency 'Risk assessment - a research programme aimed at health risks from air pollution in the general environment', report 3890, 1991 and is a survey of the scientific 'state of the art' in the different parts of risk assessment. Furthermore certain proposals are made concerning the scientific content of the future research in this area. (au)

  15. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  16. 78 FR 36784 - Survey of Nanomaterial Risk Management Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-19

    ...-0010, Docket Number NIOSH-265] Survey of Nanomaterial Risk Management Practices AGENCY: National...), Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). ACTION: Proposed NIOSH Survey of Nanomaterial Risk Management... questions addressing risk management practices for ENMs? (5) What should be the maximum amount of time...

  17. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  18. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  19. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  20. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  1. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  2. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  5. Risk perception and benefits perception. Survey results and discussion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Touzet, R.; Remedi, J.; Baron, J.; Caspani, C.

    2000-01-01

    The fact that the risks deriving from different activities involving the same radiation exposure are seen very differently by a single population is a highly significant one. Exactly identical risks are considered oppositely, depending on the origin of radiation (whether produced by medical applications or by nuclear power plants, resulting from natural radiation or from artificial radiation). It appears as if there was good radiation and bad radiation..! One of the purposes of the paper is the discussion of causes. The acceptance of a given risk by a certain section of the population is closely related to the benefits that the group expects to receive-either consciously or unconsciously-from the activity producing the risk. Consequently, an analysis of the factors influencing the eventual rejection of a practice should explore not only fears, but also hopes...! On the basis of a risk-perception survey carried out in a population sector attending hospitals-including both patients and physicians-, a prior objective analysis of the results obtained was performed and, later on, the various statements by those surveyed were studied. The design of the survey allowed for a comparative assessment of the perception of different risks depending on the people's educational and social level. An epistemological study was made on the validity involved in the use of the data resulting from the survey, so as to reach different conclusions. The population's opinion about the capacity for response, the qualification and the mitigation means available to the State authorities in order to face an eventual radiological emergency plays a leading role in risk perception. In an analysis of the relevant factors involved in risk and benefits perception by the population (in the real world), attention must be paid to the existence of organized opinion groups representing the interest of a given sector. Of course, the population's confidence in the experts providing the information is a key

  6. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  7. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  8. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  9. Survey on HIV risk perception and sexual behaviours among seafarers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grappasonni, I; Paci, P; Mazzucchi, F; Amenta, F

    2011-01-01

    Because the nature of their work seafarers spend long periods of time away from their families and therefore represent a group at risk for sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV infection. This paper reports the results of a survey to evaluate awareness and knowledge of the risk of HIV infection among seafarers. Risky behaviours for HIV transmission were also assessed. The survey was conducted using anonymous questionnaires on 197 workers of 9 vessels and 26 office employees of an Italian shipping company (FINAVAL S.p.A., Rome). The respondents considered HIV/AIDS as one of the diseases with a high risk of transmission. Most respondents had a good general knowledge of HIV/AIDS and on the ways of its transmission. However, there is still lack of knowledge on the basics of this disease. On the other hand, in spite of knowledge and awareness about the risks of the disease, only 56.35% of the interviewed crewmembers used protection in sexual intercourse with occasional partners. Compared to data available in literature, the percentage of self-protecting people is increasing, but the number of seafarers exposing themselves to risky behaviours is still high. As expected, condoms are used with regular partners with lower frequency compared to occasional intercourse. The results of this survey indicate that adequate prevention campaigns and major attention paid to seafarers health is useful for stimulating responsible conduct for the prevention of infectious diseases, including HIV infection. Nevertheless, it is still necessary to increase information about the risk of sexually transmitted diseases and how to reduce it.

  10. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  11. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  12. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  13. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  14. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  15. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  16. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  17. Survey to assess Persian Gulf spill effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that an international group is poised for an extensive survey of the Persian Gulf, including an assessment of the long term effects of last year's oil spill, a legacy of the Persian Gulf war. Saudi Arabia plans a $450 million cleanup program on beaches fouled by the massive spill. Plans for the survey were disclosed by the United National Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (Unesco). It is to be carried out under the auspices of the Regional Organization for the Protection of the Marine Environment (Ropme), Unesco's Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Ropme member countries are Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates

  18. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  19. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  20. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  1. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  2. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  3. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  4. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Survey of risk factors urinary tract infection

    OpenAIRE

    A Dehghani; M zahedi; M moezzi; M dafei; H Falahzadeh

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Women are very susceptible to urinary tract infections and pregnancy raises the risk of urinary tract infection. In general, little information on the risk factors of urinary tract infection in pregnancy is underway. Urinary tract infection in pregnancy is an important risk factor for pregnancy dire consequences. The purpose of this study is to find risk factors associated with urinary tract infection in pregnant women. Methods: The study was observational and retrospective ...

  6. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  7. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  8. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  9. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  10. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  11. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  12. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  13. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  14. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  15. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  16. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  17. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  18. Perception and evaluation of risks. Findings of the 'Baden-Wuerttemberg Risk Survey 2001'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zwick, M.M.; Renn, O. (eds.)

    2002-05-01

    Since most of the empirical work on risk perception has been conducted in the 1970s and few studies are available that claim to span the full range of psychological, sociological and cultural variables, the Center of Technology Assessment in Stuttgart (Germany) has conducted a representative survey in the German State of Baden-Wuerttemberg on risk perception in the general population. In addition, a qualitative investigation based on a sample of 62 respondents was launched in 2001. The objective of the study was to determine the relative importance of psychometric, stigma-related, social value-related, trust-related and cultural variables in explaining risk perception and acceptance. The following report summarizes the results of these investigations. (orig.)

  19. Preliminary survey for communicating risk in medical exposure. Perception of risk among nurses working in radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanda, Reiko; Tsuji, Satsuki; Shirakawa, Yoshiyuki; Yonehara, Hidenori

    2008-01-01

    A questionnaire survey was conducted on radiation risk and medical exposure, particularly in applications involving children. The survey was targeted at nurses (170 females) engaged in important roles in communicating risk regarding medical exposure. The questionnaire survey yielded the following findings. A significant number of respondents associated the word radiation' with 'cancer treatment,' 'exposure,' and 'X-ray pictures.' Perceptions about 'food exposure' differed between respondents with children and those without. Among the potential health problems posed by radiation, effects on children,' 'cancer and leukemia,' and 'genetic effects' were perceived as the most worrisome. Significant differences in perception were noted regarding infertility between respondents with children and those without. Concerning the effects of medical exposure on fetuses/children, only 10 percent of all respondents replied that they were not anxious about negative effects in either case. Among the respondents who felt uneasy about these aspects, most tended to assess exposed parts, doses, damage potentially suffered, timing of occurrence, and uncertainty, based on their professional experience and knowledge, to rationally distinguish acceptable risks from unacceptable ones and to limit concern to the unacceptable aspects. (author)

  20. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  1. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  2. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  3. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  4. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  5. Risks and risk assessment according to British legislation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieweg, K.

    1980-01-01

    The most important rules of the large number of legal regulations and other norms relating to risk control of technical installations discussed as far as their approach is quantitative: the regulations of the Health and Safety at Work Act of 1974, of the Factories Act of 1961, the Hazardous Installations (Notification and Survey) Regulation, the Canvey-Island Study, regulations referring to Atomic Energy Law and the administrative practice, legal regulations in the field of navigation, regulations concerning planning legislation including the Windscale-Study. In Great Britain, the power of decision in the field of technical safety has been clearly assigned to the administrative authorities. The legislature refrained from going into details in the stipulation of legal regulations, judicial control has not been provided for, or has only little relevance in practice. The prevailing goal is to reach decisions by consensus, taking every effort to solve conflicts of interest by mutual agreements. Methods and criteria in risk assessment have been modified according to technological knowledge and developments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  6. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  7. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  8. Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horie, Seichi

    2010-09-01

    Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  9. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  10. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  11. Risk assessment and clinical decision making for colorectal cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroy, Paul C; Caron, Sarah E; Sherman, Bonnie J; Heeren, Timothy C; Battaglia, Tracy A

    2015-10-01

    Shared decision making (SDM) related to test preference has been advocated as a potentially effective strategy for increasing adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet primary care providers (PCPs) are often reluctant to comply with patient preferences if they differ from their own. Risk stratification advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) provides a rational strategy for reconciling these differences. To assess the importance of risk stratification in PCP decision making related to test preference for average-risk patients and receptivity to use of an electronic risk assessment tool for ACN to facilitate SDM. Mixed methods, including qualitative key informant interviews and a cross-sectional survey. PCPs at an urban, academic safety-net institution. Screening preferences, factors influencing patient recommendations and receptivity to use of a risk stratification tool. Nine PCPs participated in interviews and 57 completed the survey. Despite an overwhelming preference for colonoscopy by 95% of respondents, patient risk (67%) and patient preferences (63%) were more influential in their decision making than patient comorbidities (31%; P decision making, yet few providers considered risk factors other than age for average-risk patients. Providers were receptive to the use of a risk assessment tool for ACN when recommending an appropriate screening test for select patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  13. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  14. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  15. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  16. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  17. Survey of risk factors urinary tract infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Dehghani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Women are very susceptible to urinary tract infections and pregnancy raises the risk of urinary tract infection. In general, little information on the risk factors of urinary tract infection in pregnancy is underway. Urinary tract infection in pregnancy is an important risk factor for pregnancy dire consequences. The purpose of this study is to find risk factors associated with urinary tract infection in pregnant women. Methods: The study was observational and retrospective analysis was carried on in the winter of which 310 pregnant women participated in 11 health centers in Shahrekord. Of these 155 cases (patients and 155 controls (healthy that were matched for age Information required from the health records of pregnant women and complete Czech list of researcher whose validity was confirmed by experts were gathered. Information needed by pregnant women health records and complete list researcher was collected. Czech list contains a number of possible risk factors for illness and demographic characteristics of the study participants was Statistical analysis software spss version 16 by using chi square tests and logistic regression and t analysis was performed. Results: Among the variables vomiting (p = 0/00 a history of urinary tract infection in a previous pregnancy (P =.001, CI = 1.508-4.408, OR = 2.578 abortion own history (P =.014, CI = 1.165 -3.847, OR = 2.117, respectively, the most important risk factors for urinary tract infection in pregnant women were determined. Conclusion: Prevention and treatment of vomiting in pregnancy prevention of urinary tract infections during pregnancy. Prevention of abortion can play an important role in the prevention of urinary tract infection and its complications in pregnancy. The study also revealed a number of factors can have an impact on urinary tract infection in pregnancy that has not been enough attention and it is necessary that more attention be placed on health programs and

  18. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  19. Perceived risks of radioactive waste transport through Oregon: Results of a statewide survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacGregor, D.; Slovic, P.; Mason, R.G.; Detweiler, J.; Binney, S.E.; Dodd, B.

    1994-01-01

    Transportation of hazardous materials, and particularly radioactive wastes, on public highways has become an important risk management issue. The unfavorability of public attitudes regarding hazardous and nuclear waste signals the potential for strong public opposition to programs for transporting these materials. This paper presents the results of a survey conducted to assess public reactions to a long-term nuclear waste transport program planned to follow a route through a portion of rural Oregon. The survey assessed a number of key risk perception issues, including perceived health and safety risks of nuclear waste transport, relative risks of transport vs. storage at an existing site, trust in state officials, and satisfaction with life in communities along the transport route. The survey identified a number of attitudes and concerns that need to be understood and considered by those in charge of designing and implementing the waste-transportation program. 22 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs

  20. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  1. Health impact assessment – A survey on quantifying tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [Fakultaet fuer Gesundheitswissenschaften, Universitaet Bielefeld, Universitaetsstr. 25, 33615 Bielefeld (Germany); Mekel, Odile C.L., E-mail: odile.mekel@lzg.nrw.de [Gesundheitsdaten und analysen, Versorgungsstrukturen, Landeszentrum Gesundheit Nordrhein-Westfalen (LZG.NRW), Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Fintan Hurley, J., E-mail: fintan.hurley@iom-world.org [Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM), Research Avenue North, Riccarton, Edinburgh EH14 4AP, Scotland (United Kingdom); Mackenbach, Johan P., E-mail: j.mackenbach@erasmusmc.nl [Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, P.O. Box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    2016-02-15

    Integrating human health into prospective impact assessments is known to be challenging. This is true for both approaches: dedicated health impact assessments (HIA) as well as inclusion of health into more general impact assessments. Acknowledging the full range of participatory, qualitative, and quantitative approaches, this study focuses on the latter, especially on computational tools for quantitative health modelling. We conducted a survey among tool developers concerning the status quo of development and availability of such tools; experiences made with model usage in real-life situations; and priorities for further development. Responding toolmaker groups described 17 such tools, most of them being maintained and reported as ready for use and covering a wide range of topics, including risk & protective factors, exposures, policies, and health outcomes. In recent years, existing models have been improved and were applied in new ways, and completely new models emerged. There was high agreement among respondents on the need to further develop methods for assessment of inequalities and uncertainty. The contribution of quantitative modeling to health foresight would benefit from building joint strategies of further tool development, improving the visibility of quantitative tools and methods, and engaging continuously with actual and potential users. - Highlights: • A survey investigated computational tools for health impact quantification. • Formal evaluation of such tools has been rare. • Handling inequalities and uncertainties are priority areas for further development. • Health foresight would benefit from tool developers and users forming a community. • Joint development strategies across computational tools are needed.

  2. Health impact assessment – A survey on quantifying tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fehr, Rainer; Mekel, Odile C.L.; Fintan Hurley, J.; Mackenbach, Johan P.

    2016-01-01

    Integrating human health into prospective impact assessments is known to be challenging. This is true for both approaches: dedicated health impact assessments (HIA) as well as inclusion of health into more general impact assessments. Acknowledging the full range of participatory, qualitative, and quantitative approaches, this study focuses on the latter, especially on computational tools for quantitative health modelling. We conducted a survey among tool developers concerning the status quo of development and availability of such tools; experiences made with model usage in real-life situations; and priorities for further development. Responding toolmaker groups described 17 such tools, most of them being maintained and reported as ready for use and covering a wide range of topics, including risk & protective factors, exposures, policies, and health outcomes. In recent years, existing models have been improved and were applied in new ways, and completely new models emerged. There was high agreement among respondents on the need to further develop methods for assessment of inequalities and uncertainty. The contribution of quantitative modeling to health foresight would benefit from building joint strategies of further tool development, improving the visibility of quantitative tools and methods, and engaging continuously with actual and potential users. - Highlights: • A survey investigated computational tools for health impact quantification. • Formal evaluation of such tools has been rare. • Handling inequalities and uncertainties are priority areas for further development. • Health foresight would benefit from tool developers and users forming a community. • Joint development strategies across computational tools are needed.

  3. Atlantic Protected Species Assessment Aerial Surveys

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data sets include a compilation of aerial line-transect surveys conducted over continental shelf waters of the southeastern U.S. Surveys have been conducted...

  4. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  5. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  6. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Ajay; Hutter, Inge

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from broader cultural meaning systems to rationalize uncertainty. In this study, we identify some of the cultural heuristics used by migrant men in Goa, India to assess their risk of HIV infection from different sexual partners. Data derives from a series of in-depth interviews and a locally informed survey. Cultural heuristics identified include visual heuristics, heuristics of gender roles, vigilance and trust. The paper argues that, for more culturally informed HIV/AIDS behaviour change interventions, knowledge of cultural heuristics is essential.

  7. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  8. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  9. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  10. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  11. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  12. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  13. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  14. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  15. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  16. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  17. Risk aversion in medical decision making: a survey

    OpenAIRE

    Liliana Chicaíza; Mario García; Giancarlo Romano

    2011-01-01

    This article surveys the literature on risk aversion in medical decision making. The search covered Econlit, Jstor Science Direct and Springer Link since 1985. The results are classified in three topics: Risk aversion in the frameworks of Expected Utility and Rank Dependent Expected Utility theories, and the methodologies for measuring risk aversion and its applications to clinical situations from the points of view of economics and psychology. It was found that, despite conceptual and method...

  18. PDA survey of quality risk management practices in the pharmaceutical, devices, & biotechnology industries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Ruhi; Baseman, Harold; Ferreira, Jorge; Genova, Thomas; Harclerode, William; Hartman, Jeffery; Kim, Samuel; Londeree, Nanette; Long, Michael; Miele, William; Ramjit, Timothy; Raschiatore, Marlene; Tomonto, Charles

    2008-01-01

    In July 2006 the Parenteral Drug Association's Risk Management Task Force for Aseptic Processes, conducted an electronic survey of PDA members to determine current industry practices regarding implementation of Quality Risk Management in their organizations. This electronic survey was open and publicly available via the PDA website and targeted professionals in our industry who are involved in initiating, implementing, or reviewing risk management programs or decisions in their organizations. One hundred twenty-nine members participated and their demographics are presented in the sidebar "Correspondents Profile". Among the major findings are: *The "Aseptic Processing/Filling" operation is the functional area identified as having the greatest need for risk assessment and quality risk management. *The most widely used methodology in industry to identify risk is Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). This tool was most widely applied in assessing change control and for adverse event, complaint, or failure investigations. *Despite the fact that personnel training was identified as the strategy most used for controlling/minimizing risk, the largest contributors to sterility failure in operations are still "Personnel". *Most companies still rely on "Manufacturing Controls" to mitigate risk and deemed the utilization of Process Analytical Technology (PAT) least important in this aspect. *A majority of correspondents verified that they did not periodically assess their risk management programs. *A majority of the correspondents desired to see case studies or examples of risk analysis implementation (as applicable to aseptic processing) in future PDA technical reports on risk management.

  19. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  20. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  1. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  2. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  3. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  4. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  5. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  6. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  7. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  8. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  9. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  10. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  11. Ensuring the quality of occupational safety risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Abel; Ribeiro, Rita A; Nunes, Isabel L

    2013-03-01

    In work environments, the main aim of occupational safety risk assessment (OSRA) is to improve the safety level of an installation or site by either preventing accidents and injuries or minimizing their consequences. To this end, it is of paramount importance to identify all sources of hazards and assess their potential to cause problems in the respective context. If the OSRA process is inadequate and/or not applied effectively, it results in an ineffective safety prevention program and inefficient use of resources. An appropriate OSRA is an essential component of the occupational safety risk management process in industries. In this article, we performed a survey to elicit the relative importance for identified OSRA tasks to enable an in-depth evaluation of the quality of risk assessments related to occupational safety aspects on industrial sites. The survey involved defining a questionnaire with the most important elements (tasks) for OSRA quality assessment, which was then presented to safety experts in the mining, electrical power production, transportation, and petrochemical industries. With this work, we expect to contribute to the main question of OSRA in industries: "What constitutes a good occupational safety risk assessment?" The results obtained from the questionnaire showed that experts agree with the proposed OSRA process decomposition in steps and tasks (taxonomy) and also with the importance of assigning weights to obtain knowledge about OSRA task relevance. The knowledge gained will enable us, in the near future, to build a framework to evaluate OSRA quality for industrial sites. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  13. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  14. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  15. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  16. Surveying perceptions of landslide risk management in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Jessica Ka Yi; Eidsvig, Unni

    2016-04-01

    Enhanced precipitation due to climate change leads to increase in both frequency and intensity of landslides in Norway. A proactive approach to risk management is therefore required to significantly reduce the losses associated with landslides. Opinions and perceptions from practitioners on the performance of landslide risk management can provide insights on areas for improvement in the landslide risk management strategies in Norway. The Risk Management Index (RMI), proposed by Cardona et al. (2004), is a well-established method to measure perceptions of disaster management of selected actors holistically. The RMI is measured based on opinion questionnaires to technical staff, decision-makers, and stakeholders involved in all stages of risk reduction strategies. It is a composite index that considers a wide variety of strategies to manage risks, including structural and non-structural measures, acceptance strategies, disaster management, and risk transfer. The RMI method was modified to be implemented in landslide hazards and to fit with Norwegian conditions. An opinion survey was conducted in autumn 2015 to measure perceptions of landslide risk management in Norway. Perceptions were surveyed for two time periods: 2015 and 2050, and are based on national, county, and municipality levels. Based on the survey results, performance of landslide risk management at any administrative levels in Norway is perceived to improve from `significant' in 2015 to `significant' to `outstanding' in 2050. Knowledge and technology, climate, risk perceptions, and anthropogenic activities are mostly considered by respondents for their 2050 perceptions. Several aspects of landslide risk management in Norway can be improved. For example, landslide hazard evaluation and mapping should be prioritised in Norway. Upgrading, retrofitting, and reconstruction of assets may also be included in the landslide risk reduction strategies. In addition, there should be more focus on inter

  17. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  18. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palecek, M [Occupational Safety Research Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1992-07-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems.

  19. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palecek, M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  20. The challenges of risk society for impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2017-01-01

    , the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions and the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate. Through a case example of integration of climate change in strategic environmental assessment, the paper uses empirical evidence from a survey and a series of interviews to carry out......This paper takes its point of departure in Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. The paper puts forward a hypothe- sis, on which theoretical challenges the characteristics of risk society pose to impact assessment as a decision support tool; namely...... a preliminary discussion of how the theoretical challenges are reflected in practice. The case study results show that the challenge of delivering assessments and predictions in a risk society is reflected in the current state of practice, while the challenge of handling differences of opinion and debate...

  1. Kona Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Survey (SE1606, EK60)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — During this cruise, small-boat surveys were conducted of surface slicks in order to assess their ecological relevance and underlying physical derivers. To assess the...

  2. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  3. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  4. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  5. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  6. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  7. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  8. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  9. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  10. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  11. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  12. Judicial aspects in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukes, R.

    1977-01-01

    Decisions of administrative authorities concerning the permission to use fissile material contain a prognosis about the probability of damage which may be caused by using this material. The judicial criteria used in order to determine the probability of such a damage occurring can be improved by risk analysis. This will not, of course, reduce administrative decisions to simple 'yes-or-no decisions', but the calculation of probabilities will gain more exactness. (orig.) [de

  13. 2015/2016 Quality Risk Management Benchmarking Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldron, Kelly; Ramnarine, Emma; Hartman, Jeffrey

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the concept of quality risk management (QRM) maturity as it applies to the pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical industries, using the results and analysis from a QRM benchmarking survey conducted in 2015 and 2016. QRM maturity can be defined as the effectiveness and efficiency of a quality risk management program, moving beyond "check-the-box" compliance with guidelines such as ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management , to explore the value QRM brings to business and quality operations. While significant progress has been made towards full adoption of QRM principles and practices across industry, the full benefits of QRM have not yet been fully realized. The results of the QRM Benchmarking Survey indicate that the pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical industries are approximately halfway along the journey towards full QRM maturity. LAY ABSTRACT: The management of risks associated with medicinal product quality and patient safety are an important focus for the pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical industries. These risks are identified, analyzed, and controlled through a defined process called quality risk management (QRM), which seeks to protect the patient from potential quality-related risks. This paper summarizes the outcomes of a comprehensive survey of industry practitioners performed in 2015 and 2016 that aimed to benchmark the level of maturity with regard to the application of QRM. The survey results and subsequent analysis revealed that the pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical industries have made significant progress in the management of quality risks over the last ten years, and they are roughly halfway towards reaching full maturity of QRM. © PDA, Inc. 2017.

  14. Risk perception in the public: Results of a survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastide, S.; Brenot, J.

    1989-01-01

    At first, some approaches used to study risk perception are briefly reviewed. Then, results of a survey devoted to general public risk perception, are presented. Risky activities are ranked. Clusters of activities which are judged similar for danger, are given. The relations between perception of danger, trust in the safety organization and the characteristics of the interviewed people are emphasized. The nuclear and chemical sectors are shortly compared. (author)

  15. Intuitive risk perception: research results of attitude surveys toward risk and technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.; Peters, H.P.

    1982-01-01

    Using the instruments of the empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severity of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks

  16. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  17. A Protocol for Advanced Psychometric Assessment of Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Squires, Janet E.; Hayduk, Leslie; Hutchinson, Alison M.; Cranley, Lisa A.; Gierl, Mark; Cummings, Greta G.; Norton, Peter G.; Estabrooks, Carole A.

    2013-01-01

    Background and Purpose. In this paper, we present a protocol for advanced psychometric assessments of surveys based on the Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing. We use the Alberta Context Tool (ACT) as an exemplar survey to which this protocol can be applied. Methods. Data mapping, acceptability, reliability, and validity are addressed. Acceptability is assessed with missing data frequencies and the time required to complete the survey. Reliability is assessed with internal consistency coefficients and information functions. A unitary approach to validity consisting of accumulating evidence based on instrument content, response processes, internal structure, and relations to other variables is taken. We also address assessing performance of survey data when aggregated to higher levels (e.g., nursing unit). Discussion. In this paper we present a protocol for advanced psychometric assessment of survey data using the Alberta Context Tool (ACT) as an exemplar survey; application of the protocol to the ACT survey is underway. Psychometric assessment of any survey is essential to obtaining reliable and valid research findings. This protocol can be adapted for use with any nursing survey. PMID:23401759

  18. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of

  19. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: a discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire TG; Stevenson H; Pieters MN; Rennen M; Slob W; Hakkert BC; Nederlandse organisatie voor; CSR; LEO; TNO-ITV

    1998-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute towards further harmonisation of the human health risk assessment. It discusses the development of a formal, harmonised set of default assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed. Options are presented

  20. Is cell culture a risky business? Risk analysis based on scientist survey data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shannon, Mark; Capes-Davis, Amanda; Eggington, Elaine; Georghiou, Ronnie; Huschtscha, Lily I; Moy, Elsa; Power, Melinda; Reddel, Roger R; Arthur, Jonathan W

    2016-02-01

    Cell culture is a technique that requires vigilance from the researcher. Common cell culture problems, including contamination with microorganisms or cells from other cultures, can place the reliability and reproducibility of cell culture work at risk. Here we use survey data, contributed by research scientists based in Australia and New Zealand, to assess common cell culture risks and how these risks are managed in practice. Respondents show that sharing of cell lines between laboratories continues to be widespread. Arrangements for mycoplasma and authentication testing are increasingly in place, although scientists are often uncertain how to perform authentication testing. Additional risks are identified for preparation of frozen stocks, storage and shipping. © 2015 UICC.

  1. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  2. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  3. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  4. The assessment and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daglish, J.

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

  5. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    , the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  6. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  7. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  8. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  9. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  10. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  11. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  12. Security Risks and Protection in Online Learning: A Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong; He, Wu

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes a survey of online learning which attempts to determine online learning providers' awareness of potential security risks and the protection measures that will diminish them. The authors use a combination of two methods: blog mining and a traditional literature search. The findings indicate that, while scholars have…

  13. Risk assessment for produced water discharges to Louisiana Open Bays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meinhold, A.F.; DePhillips, M.P.; Holtzman, S.

    1995-06-23

    Data were collected prior to termination of discharge at three sites (including two open bay sites at Delacroix Island and Bay De Chene) for the risk assessments. The Delacroix Island Oil and Gas Field has been in production since the first well drilling in 1940; the Bay De Chene Field, since 1942. Concentrations of 226Ra, 228Ra, 210Po, and 228Th were measured in discharges. Radium conc. were measured in fish and shellfish tissues. Sediment PAH and metal conc. were also available. Benthos sampling was conducted. A survey of fishermen was conducted. The tiered risk assessment showed that human health risks from radium in produced water appear to be small; ecological risk from radium and other radionuclides in produced water also appear small. Many of the chemical contaminants discharged to open Louisiana bays appear to present little human health or ecological risk. A conservative screening analysis suggested potential risks to human health from Hg and Pb and a potential risk to ecological receptors from total effluent, Sb, Cd, Cu, Pb, Ni, Ag, Zn, and phenol in the water column and PAHs in sediment; quantitiative risk assessments are being done for these contaminants.

  14. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  15. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  16. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  17. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  18. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  19. Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

  20. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  1. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  2. Science and judgment in risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants

    .... This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments...

  3. Business managers turn to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Frank

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessments have evolved to help technical managers in nuclear and other industries to design and operate plant with safety in mind. However, they are now developing into the area of business management. (author)

  4. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  5. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  6. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  7. Nutrient adequacy: assessment using food consumption surveys

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1986-01-01

    ... of Food Consumption Surveys Food and Nutrition Board Commission on Life Sciences National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, D.C. 1986 i Copyrightthe cannot be not from book, paper however, version for formatting, original authoritative the typesetting-specific the as from created publication files XML from other this ...

  8. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as

  9. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvin, B.N.

    1996-01-01

    An independent review of all facets of risk management, as it pertains to mergers and acquisitions within the petroleum industry, with no transactional motivation, was provided by a representative of a firm specializing in all phases of risk assessment. The following topics received attention: (1) the forward curve versus industry expectations, (2) investor expectations, (3) financial versus physical transactions, and (4) synthetic debt

  10. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  11. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  12. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  13. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  14. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  15. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  16. Occupational Health Policies on Risk Assessment in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seichi Horie

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law of Japan requires abnormalities identifi ed in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording “employers shall endeavor.” Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifi es criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer signifi cant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, fi nancial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  17. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  18. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  19. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  20. Perceived Injury Risk among Junior Cricketers: A Cross Sectional Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasanna J. Gamage

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Understanding how junior athletes perceive injury risks when participating in sport and the environment they play in is an important component of injury prevention. This study investigates how Sri Lankan junior cricketers (n = 365, aged 11–14 years, boys perceive injury risks associated with playing cricket. The study used a Sri Lankan modification of an Australian junior cricket injury risk perception survey that considered playing cricket versus other sports, different cricket playing positions and roles, and different ground conditions. The risk of playing cricket was considered to be greater than that for cycling, but lower than that for rugby and soccer. Fast-bowlers, batters facing fast-bowlers, fielding close in the field, and wicket-keeping without a helmet were perceived to pose greater risks of injury than other scenarios. Playing on hard, bumpy and/or wet ground conditions were perceived to have a high risk opposed to playing on a grass field. Fielding in the outfield and wicket-keeping to fast-bowlers whilst wearing a helmet were perceived as low risk actions. The risk perceptions of junior cricketers identified in this study, do not necessarily reflect the true injury risk in some instances. This information will inform the development of injury prevention education interventions to address these risk perceptions in junior cricketers.

  1. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  2. Risk assessment of AMC (Advanced measurement and control systems). Survey of information security vulnerabilities in AMC.; Risikovurdering av AMS. Kartlegging av informasjonssikkerhetsmessige s#Latin Small Letter A With Ring Above#rbarheter i AMS.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartnes, Line Maria [NTNU, Trondheim (Norway); Johansen, Gorm Idar [NTNU, Trondheim (Norway); S#Latin Small Letter Ae#le, Hanne [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway)

    2012-07-01

    SINTEF has carried out an overall assessment of Advanced measurement and control Systems (AMC) for Norway Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE). The assessment includes mainly AMC basis functions, which are record measurement data in customer and transfer these to the network, as well as wrestling / throttling power outlet in the each measuring point. Adjoining IT systems with network companies are considered only to a limited degree. The focus in analysis has been measuring point by geographical location, and the opportunity for both consumption and feed. Mobile devices such as measuring the charging of electric vehicles have not been touched upon in the analysis. It must be noted that this report provides an overall risk assessment related to general AMC technology and infrastructure. Each grid company must prepare their own risk assessments for their systems. The report describes a general AMC infrastructure with the refinements that have been made for this analysis. Then it is made an assessment on the basis of an information security perspective, the confidentiality, integrity and availability are the most important aspects. Different scenarios and events are presented and discussed, and the events that are judged to be at highest risk, one or more of the following elements out: - Unwanted shutdown of many customers - Software Error - Central system fails or used in the attack - Unfaithful servant's own employee misuses of knowledge and / or legitimate accesses In addition, a scenario with many gauges inoperative once considered to be critical, without cause need to be a targeted attack. This is because the consequences will incur substantial costs for repair and / or replacement of equipment. Malicious software could be causing, or a tool in several of events, especially at the onset that run from afar (remote connection). It is recommended that the Emergency Regulations should apply to AMC, because the risk assessment has been done shows that

  3. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

  4. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  5. A score for measuring health risk perception in environmental surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcon, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang; Rava, Marta; Braggion, Marco; Grassi, Mario; Zanolin, Maria Elisabetta

    2015-09-15

    In environmental surveys, risk perception may be a source of bias when information on health outcomes is reported using questionnaires. Using the data from a survey carried out in the largest chipboard industrial district in Italy (Viadana, Mantova), we devised a score of health risk perception and described its determinants in an adult population. In 2006, 3697 parents of children were administered a questionnaire that included ratings on 7 environmental issues. Items dimensionality was studied by factor analysis. After testing equidistance across response options by homogeneity analysis, a risk perception score was devised by summing up item ratings. Factor analysis identified one latent factor, which we interpreted as health risk perception, that explained 65.4% of the variance of five items retained after scaling. The scale (range 0-10, mean ± SD 9.3 ± 1.9) had a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.87). Most subjects (80.6%) expressed maximum risk perception (score = 10). Italian mothers showed significantly higher risk perception than foreign fathers. Risk perception was higher for parents of young children, and for older parents with a higher education, than for their counterparts. Actual distance to major roads was not associated with the score, while self-reported intense traffic and frequent air refreshing at home predicted higher risk perception. When investigating health effects of environmental hazards using questionnaires, care should be taken to reduce the possibility of awareness bias at the stage of study planning and data analysis. Including appropriate items in study questionnaires can be useful to derive a measure of health risk perception, which can help to identify confounding of association estimates by risk perception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. The German clinical risk management survey for hospitals: Implementation levels and areas for improvement in 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manser, Tanja; Frings, Janina; Heuser, Gregory; Mc Dermott, Fiona

    2016-01-01

    Despite the growing recognition of the need to implement systematic approaches for managing the risks associated with healthcare, few studies have investigated the level of implementation for clinical risk management (CRM) at a national level. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the current level of CRM implementation in German hospitals and to explore differences across hospital types. From March to June 2015, persons responsible for CRM in 2,617 hospitals and rehabilitation clinics in Germany were invited to participate in a voluntary online survey assessing the level of implementation for various aspects of CRM: CRM strategy, structures and processes; risk assessment (risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation) with a focus on incident reporting systems; risk mitigation measures; and risk monitoring and reporting. 572 hospitals participated in the survey (response rate 22 %). Most of these hospitals had a formalised, binding CRM strategy (72 %). 66 % had a centralised and 34 % a decentralised CRM structure. We also found that, despite a broad range of risk assessment methods being applied, there was a lack of integration of risk information from different data sources. Hospitals also reported a high level of implementation of critical incident reporting systems with a strong preference for local (74 %) over transorganisational systems. This study provides relevant data to inform targeted interventions concerning CRM implementation at a national level and to consider the specific context of different types of hospitals more carefully in this process. The approach to CRM assessment illustrated in this article could be the basis of a system for monitoring CRM over time and, thus, for evaluating the impact of strategy decisions at the policy level on CRM development. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  7. Survey of Codes Employing Nuclear Damage Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-10-01

    surveyed codes were com- DO 73Mu 1473 ETN OF 1NOVSSSOLETE UNCLASSIFIED 1 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS f AGE (Wh*11 Date Efntered)S<>-~C. I UNCLASSIFIED...level and above) TALLEY/TOTEM not nuclear TARTARUS too highly aggregated (battalion level and above) UNICORN highly aggregated force allocation code...vulnerability data can bq input by the user as he receives them, and there is the abil ’ity to replay any situation using hindsight. The age of target

  8. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk assessment of fluoride exposure in drinking water of Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guissouma, Wiem; Hakami, Othman; Al-Rajab, Abdul Jabbar; Tarhouni, Jamila

    2017-06-01

    The presence of fluoride in drinking water is known to reduce dental cavities among consumers, but an excessive intake of this anion might leads to dental and skeletal fluorosis. This study reports a complete survey of the fluoridated tap water taken from 100 water consumption points in Tunisia. The fluoride concentrations in tap water were between 0 and 2.4 mg L -1 . Risk assessment of Fluoride exposure was assessed depending on the age of consumers using a four-step method: hazard identification, toxicity reference values selection (TRVs), daily exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Our findings suggest that approximately 75% of the Tunisian population is at risk for dental decay, 25% have a potential dental fluorosis risk, and 20% might have a skeletal fluorosis risk according to the limits of fluoride in drinking water recommended by WHO. More investigations are recommended to assess the exposure risk of fluoride in other sources of drinking water such as bottled water. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  11. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  12. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  13. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  14. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  15. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  16. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  17. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  18. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  19. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  20. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  1. US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

  2. Developing an International Survey of Teachers' Assessment Capabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Renken, Maggie; Otrel-Cass, Kathrin; Cowie, Bronwen

    teacher education into the first years as teachers across six countries. We target the nature of programmes and changes in understanding assessment purposes, practices, principles and policy. This project builds on the ACT survey of student-teacher understandings of assessment conducted over three years......Professional standards require teachers to be assessment literate - to construct, administer, and score reliable, valid assessments, communicate interpretations and use evidence to adjust teaching to support students. This project investigates student-teachers’ assessment literacy throughout...

  3. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  4. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  5. Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

    2018-01-01

    In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.

  6. Using Online Surveys to Promote and Assess Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Laura; Doehler, Kirsten

    2014-01-01

    This article explores the use of online survey software to collect data from students during class to efficiently use class time. Several example activities for an introductory statistics classroom are considered. We also discuss utilization of online survey software for other purposes such as collecting assessment information and student…

  7. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  8. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  9. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  10. Vesuvio civil protection exercise MESIMEX: survey on volcanic risk perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tullio Ricci

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In October 2006 the European Civil Protection Exercise MESIMEX (Somma Vesuvio Mesimex – Major Emergency SIMulation Exercise on volcanic risk took place at Vesuvio, promoted by Campania Region and coordinated by the Italian Civil Protection Department. The exercise was focused on the preparedness phase for a major volcanic emergency in the area of Vesuvio. An evacuation of a sample of 1800 inhabitants from the Vesuvio Red Zone was also tested during the drill because the emergency plan ensures the complete evacuation of the population from the higher risk zone before the onset of the eruption. During that event a survey on volcanic risk perception was carried out on the evacuated population in order to compare the results with the ones coming from a previous similar survey, using the same questionnaire, carried out on a wider sample of residents in the Vesuvio Red Zone few months before MESIMEX exercise. The aim was to point out any differences in population’s attitude towards volcanic risk after having received detailed information on the emergency plan and on the hazards and risk related to the reactivation of Vesuvio, and experiencing the exercise. 463 questionnaires were distributed to the population evacuated from the 18 municipalities of the Red Zone and participating to the exercise. Main results in comparing data from MESIMEX survey with the Vesuvio previous one, put in evidence how the general level of Vesuvio residents’ trust remains quite low, indicating that a continuous and effective effort has to be done by both scientific community and Civil Protection Department. Particular attention should be paid in education and outreach activities and in involving people in risk mitigation procedures, also through more frequent exercises.

  11. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    on rock conditions (for the same probability level). Again, the highest hazard is found in the northeastern part of the region. The lowest hazard is obtained along major river valleys The vulnerability assessment of the Navarra building stock is accomplished using as proxy a combination of building age, location, number of floors and the implantation of building codes. Field surveys help constraining the extent of traditional and technological construction types. The vulnerability characterization is carried out following three methods: European Macroseismic Scale (EMS 98), RISK UE vulnerability index and the capacity spectrum method implemented in Hazus. Vulnerability distribution maps for each Navarrean municipality are provided, adapted to the EMS98 vulnerability classes. The vulnerability of Navarre is medium to high, except for recent urban, highly populated developments. For each vulnerability class and expected ground motion, damage distribution is estimated by means of damage probability matrixes. Several damage indexes, embracing relative and absolute damage estimates, are used. Expected average damage is low. Whereas the largest amounts of damaged structures are found in big cities, the highest percentages are obtained in some muniucipalities of northeastern Navarre. Additionally, expected percentages and amounts of affected persons by earthquake damage are calculated for each municipality. Expected amounts of affected people are low, reflecting the low expected damage degree.

  12. Gulf of Mexico Marine Mammal Assessment Aerial Surveys - NRDA

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aerial surveys were conducted during the spring-summer of 2010 and seasonally during 2011-2012 to assess the abundance and spatial distribution of marine mammals and...

  13. Gulf of Mexico Marine Mammal Assessment Vessel Surveys

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data sets are a compilation of large vessel surveys for marine mammal stock assessments in the Gulf of Mexico from 1991 to the present. These are designed as...

  14. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  15. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  16. Survey of Tsuruga inhabitants concerning radiation and its risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Yamano, Naoki

    2015-01-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident has led to changes in the acceptance of nuclear power in many people. The authors conducted an opinion survey of 300 adult inhabitants of Tsuruga city in Fukui prefecture, Japan. The aim of this survey is to obtain people's opinions concerning radiation and its risks. Authors classified Tsuruga inhabitants on the basis of responses to questions on the concept and knowledge of risk and the cognition of radiation by factor and cluster analyses of multivariable analysis. Using the results of these analyses, Tsuruga inhabitants have been assigned to five categories: “acceptance group,” “anxiety group,” and three intermediate groups. (author)

  17. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  18. Risk assessment in the DOE Assurance Program for Remedial Action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, S.; Cross, F.T.; Denham, D.H.; Kennedy, W.E.; Stenner, R.D.

    1985-08-01

    This document provides information obtained during the performance of risk assessment tasks in support of the Assurance Program for Remedial Action (APRA) sponsored by the Office of Operational Safety of the Department of Energy. We have presented a method for the estimation of projected health effects at properties in the vicinity of uranium mill tailing piles due to transported tailings or emissions from the piles. Because radon and radon daughter exposure is identified as the principal factor contributing to health effects at such properties, the basis for estimating lung cancer risk as a result of such exposure is discussed in detail. Modeling of health risk due to a secondary pathway, ingestion of contaminated, home-grown food products, is also discussed since it is a potentially important additional source of exposure in certain geographic locations. Risk assessment methods used in various mill tailings reports are reviewed. The protocols for radiological surveys conducted in DOE-sponsored remedial action programs are critically reviewed with respect to their relevance to the needs of health risk estimation. The relevance of risk assessment to the APRA program is discussed briefly

  19. A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase

  20. Development of risk assessment tool for foundry workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, G Madhan; Prasad, P S S; Mokkapati, Anil Kumar; Venkataraman, G

    2008-01-01

    Occupational ill-health and work-related disorders are predominant in manufacturing industries due to the inevitable presence of manual work even after several waves of industrial automation and technological advancements. Ergonomic risk factors and musculoskeletal disorders like low-back symptoms have been noted amongst foundry workers. The purpose of this study was to formulate and develop a Physical Effort Index to assess risk factor. The questionnaire tool applicable to foundry environment has been designed and validated. The data recorded through survey across the foundries has been subjected to regression analysis to correlate between proposed physical effort index and the standard Borg's Ratings of Perceived Exertion (RPE) scale. The physical efforts of sixty seven workers in various foundry shop floors were assessed subjectively. The 'Job factors' and 'Work environment' were the two major parameters considered in assessing the worker discomfort level at workplace. A relation between Borg's RPE scale and the above two parameters were arrived at, through regression analysis. The study demonstrates the prevalence of risk factors amongst foundry workers and the effectiveness of the proposed index in estimating the risk factor levels. RELEVANCE TO THE INDUSTRY: The proposed tool will assist foundry supervisors and managers to assess the risk factors and helps in better understanding of the workplace to avoid work-related disorders, ensuring better output.

  1. Estimation, assessment and management of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

    2005-01-01

    After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

  2. Atherogenic Risk Assessment among Persons Living in Rural Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Wekesa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Hypertension and dyslipidemia are independent risk factors for coronary heart disease and commonly coexist. Cardiovascular risk can be reliably predicted using lipid ratios such as the atherogenic index, a useful prognostic parameter for guiding timely interventions. Objective. We assessed the cardiovascular risk profile based on the atherogenic index of residents within a rural Ugandan cohort. Methods. In 2011, a population based survey was conducted among 7507 participants. Sociodemographic characteristics, physical measurements (blood pressure, weight, height, and waist and hip circumference, and blood sampling for nonfasting lipid profile were collected for each participant. Atherogenic risk profile, defined as logarithm base ten of (triglyceride divided by high density lipoprotein cholesterol, was categorised as low risk (0.24. Results. Fifty-five percent of participants were female and the mean age was 49.9 years (SD±20.2. Forty-two percent of participants had high and intermediate atherogenic risk. Persons with hypertension, untreated HIV infection, abnormal glycaemia, and obesity and living in less urbanised villages were more at risk. Conclusion. A significant proportion of persons in this rural population are at risk of atherosclerosis. Key identified populations at risk should be considered for future intervention against cardiovascular related morbidity and mortality. The study however used parameters from unfasted samples that may have a bearing on observed results.

  3. Risk Assessment Approaches for Carcinogenic Food Contaminants

    OpenAIRE

    Gillespie, Zoe; Pulido, Olga; Vavasour, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Health Canada has identified the need for a standardized department-wide approach for the risk assessment of carcinogens in foods (e.g., pesticides, food chemical contaminants, veterinary therapeutics). A standardized approach would better facilitate and inform risk management strategies for the control of human exposure to food sources of carcinogens. Within the post- market regulatory context, directly DNA-reactive carcinogens are of most concern because any exposure is theoretically assume...

  4. Superfund risk assessment in soil contamination studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoddinott, K.B.

    1992-01-01

    This symposium was held in New Orleans, Louisiana on January 30-31, 1991. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of information on risk assessment associated with soil contamination. The conference included presentations in the following categories: site characterization; fate and transport; toxicity, exposures, and receptors; risk characterization/case studies; and establishing cleanup levels. Individual papers have been cataloged separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  5. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  6. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  7. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  8. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  9. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  10. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  11. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  12. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  13. Risks assessment and comparison: Interest and feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulon, Rene

    1989-01-01

    Comparative risk assessment and risk management have become a real discipline, requiring a scientific approach. This is due to the increasing need to take account of risks in the decision processes together with other economic, social or political considerations. Although the notion of risk is generally associated with emergency situations, it seems necessary to pay more attention to those situations which are considered as normal situations but could be responsible for a significant part of the observed health effects. In this context, a research programme entitled Programme Grand Delta has been developed at a regional level: its aim is to provide a clear and simple representation of the risks to which the population living in this area is exposed. (author)

  14. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

  15. Post-Chelyabinsk Risk Assessment for Near Earth Objects (NEOs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boslough, M.; Harris, A. W.

    2014-12-01

    The widely-accepted NEO risk assessments published in the 1990s concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Even though large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population because of a power-law size distribution, the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from these low-probability, high-consequence events is large. This conclusion led to the Spaceguard survey, which has now catalogued about 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course. The survey has reduced the assessed risk from this size range by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from objects tens of meters in diameter is therefore increasing.The absolute assessed risk from airbursts caused by objects of this size is also higher for two reasons. First, they may be more frequent than previously thought because of an underestimated population. Second, they are significantly more damaging than assumed in the original assessment because (in most cases) they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions. Last year's half-megaton airburst over Chelyabinsk, Russia, appears to challenge the notion that such events are extremely rare—especially when also considering the 1908 Tunguska event along with decades of infrasound bolide data showing higher-than-expected numbers of large airbursts.We will present a new analysis of the risk based on updated estimates for the population of undiscovered NEOs, taking into account the enhanced damage potential of collisional airbursts. Merging the survey population estimates with the bolide frequency estimates suggests a population of tens-of-meters sized bodies that may be a factor of three or so greater than estimated from surveys alone. Uncertainty in the population of airburst-class NEOs remains quite large, and can only be unambiguously reduced by expanded surveys focused on objects in the tens

  16. Environmental health risk assessment: Energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Somers, E.; Winthrop, S.O.

    1984-01-01

    Most industrialized nations have come to rely on a variety of systems for energy production, both of a conventional and non-conventional nature. In the paper, the spectrum of energy systems currently in use in Canada is outlined along with their potential health risks. Several examples of environmental health studies involving both outdoor and indoor air pollution related to energy production in Canada are reported. The limitations of current technologies for assessing health risks are discussed and possible approaches to managing energy related health risks are indicated. (author)

  17. Risk assessment techniques for industrial installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croitoru, C.; Dumitrescu, M.; Preda, I.; Stefanescu, I.; Titescu, G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a risk analysis which concerns the following stages: identification of the initiation events, evaluation of the occurrence frequency of different accident sequences, assessment of human, economical, and environmental consequences, risk assessment and management. The study of the accident sequences subsequent to an initiation event was achieved by the event tree method. Also, there were developed methods based on mathematical models of installations which take into account reliability data, data concerning the exploitation history, and data referring to the human factor effects in the installation operation. These methods were used for the determination of occurrence frequencies of hydrogen sulfide emission accidents in the heavy water production installations

  18. Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions

  19. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  20. Mixtures and their risk assessment in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Moiz M; Hansen, Hugh; Pohl, Hana R

    2011-01-01

    For communities generally and for persons living in the vicinity of waste sites specifically, potential exposures to chemical mixtures are genuine concerns. Such concerns often arise from perceptions of a site's higher than anticipated toxicity due to synergistic interactions among chemicals. This chapter outlines some historical approaches to mixtures risk assessment. It also outlines ATSDR's current approach to toxicity risk assessment. The ATSDR's joint toxicity assessment guidance for chemical mixtures addresses interactions among components of chemical mixtures. The guidance recommends a series of steps that include simple calculations for a systematic analysis of data leading to conclusions regarding any hazards chemical mixtures might pose. These conclusions can, in turn, lead to recommendations such as targeted research to fill data gaps, development of new methods using current science, and health education to raise awareness of residents and health care providers. The chapter also provides examples of future trends in chemical mixtures assessment.

  1. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  2. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  3. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  4. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  5. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  7. Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

  8. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  9. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  10. Cognitive Assessment Practices: A Survey of School Psychologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotelo-Dynega, Marlene; Dixon, Shauna G.

    2014-01-01

    The present article describes an exploratory study regarding the preferred cognitive assessment practices of current school psychologists. Three hundred and twenty-three school psychologists participated in the survey. The results suggest that the majority of school psychologists endorsed that they base their assessment practices on an underlying…

  11. A Survey to Assess Barriers to Urban Teaching Careers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creasey, Gary; Mays, Jennifer; Lee, Robert; D'Santiago, Verenice

    2016-01-01

    The "Urban Teaching Barriers" survey was created to assess barriers to urban teaching careers. Pre-service teachers (N = 377) completed this instrument, along with questionnaires that assessed urban teaching intentions and urban teaching self-efficacy. Six barrier domains were identified that tapped concerns over (a) lack of resources,…

  12. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  14. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  15. Preliminary risk assessments of the small HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Everline, C.J.; Bellis, E.A.

    1985-05-01

    Preliminary investment and safety risk assessments were performed for a preconceptual design of a four-module 250-MW(t) side-by-side steel-vessel pebble bed HTGR plant. Broad event spectra were analyzed involving component damage resulting in unscheduled plant outages and fission product releases resulting in offsite doses. The preliminary assessment indicates at this stage of the design that two categories of events govern the investment risk envelope: primary coolant leaks which release some circulating and plate-out activity that contaminates the confinement and turbogenerator damage which involves extensive turbine blade failure. Primary coolant leaks are important contributors because associated cleanup and decontamination requirements result in longer outages that arise from other events with comparable frequencies. Turbogenerator damage is the salient low-frequency investment risk accident due to the relatively long outages being experienced in the industry. Thermal transients are unimportant investment risk contributors because pressurized core heatups cause little damage, and depressurized core heatups occur at negligible frequencies relative to the forced outage goal. These preliminary results demonstrate investment and safety risk goal compliance at this stage in the design process. Studies are continuing in order to provide valuable insights into risk-significant events to assure a balanced approach to meeting user and regulatory requirements

  16. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  17. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides,

  18. Next generation of microbiological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den Heidy M.W.; Amézquita, Alejandro; Bover-Cid, Sara; Dagnas, Stéphane; Ellouze, Mariem; Guillou, Sandrine; Nychas, George; O'Mahony, Cian; Pérez-Rodriguez, Fernando; Membré, Jeanne Marie

    2017-01-01

    In food safety and public health risk evaluations, microbiological exposure assessment plays a central role as it provides an estimation of both the likelihood and the level of the microbial hazard in a specified consumer portion of food and takes microbial behaviour into account. While until now

  19. Ecological Risk Assessment in Water Resource Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The US EPA published guidelines for the application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in the USA in 1998 (US EPA 1998). The process diagram derived by Murray and Claassen (1999) in an evaluation of the US EPA framework is discussed in the context of the South African National Water Act. The evaluation discusses ...

  20. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  1. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  2. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  3. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  4. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

  5. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  6. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2017-10-19

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  7. Cancer risk assessments and environmental regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scroggin, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Governmental regulation of toxic substances, such as carcinogens and radiation, prompts both legal and scientific controversies. Industry, environmental activist groups, government regulators, and the general public are all concerned with the question of how environmental risk to public health is to be measured and what level of risk warrants government action under the environmental laws. Several recent events shed light on the fundamental scientific and legal problems inherent in such regulation, and these events may affect the direction of future developments. These events include implementation of generic Risk Assessment Guidelines by the US EPA, litigation challenging EPA's regulation of carcinogenic substances, new scientific understanding of the relative risks from human exposure to natural and man-made sources, and the continuing growth of toxic tort litigation in which victims of cancer seek large damages from industrial emitters of pollution

  8. New approaches in human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009-2014; www.arcrisk.eu).

  9. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled Abass

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu.

  10. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  11. Survey of Biomass Resource Assessments and Assessment Capabilities in APEC Economies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milbrandt, A.; Overend, R. P

    2008-11-01

    This survey of biomass resource assessments and assessment capabilities in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies considered various sources: academic and government publications, media reports, and personal communication with contacts in member economies.

  12. Risk assessment in man and mouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Gallistel, Charles R

    2009-02-17

    Human and mouse subjects tried to anticipate at which of 2 locations a reward would appear. On a randomly scheduled fraction of the trials, it appeared with a short latency at one location; on the complementary fraction, it appeared after a longer latency at the other location. Subjects of both species accurately assessed the exogenous uncertainty (the probability of a short versus a long trial) and the endogenous uncertainty (from the scalar variability in their estimates of an elapsed duration) to compute the optimal target latency for a switch from the short- to the long-latency location. The optimal latency was arrived at so rapidly that there was no reliably discernible improvement over trials. Under these nonverbal conditions, humans and mice accurately assess risks and behave nearly optimally. That this capacity is well-developed in the mouse opens up the possibility of a genetic approach to the neurobiological mechanisms underlying risk assessment.

  13. Quantitative risk assessment of digitalized safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Sung Min; Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hym Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Jun [UNIST, Ulasn (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    A report published by the U.S. National Research Council indicates that appropriate methods for assessing reliability are key to establishing the acceptability of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in safety-critical plants such as NPPs. Since the release of this issue, the methodology for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I and C systems has been studied. However, there is still no widely accepted method. Kang and Sung found three critical factors for safety assessment of digital systems: detection coverage of fault-tolerant techniques, software reliability quantification, and network communication risk. In reality the various factors composing digitalized I and C systems are not independent of each other but rather closely connected. Thus, from a macro point of view, a method that can integrate risk factors with different characteristics needs to be considered together with the micro approaches to address the challenges facing each factor.

  14. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  15. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  16. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  17. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  18. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  19. Relationship between HIV risk perception and condom use: Evidence from a population-based survey in Mozambique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prata, Ndola; Morris, Leo; Mazive, Elizio; Vahidnia, Farnaz; Stehr, Mark

    2006-12-01

    The relationship between individuals' perception of their risk for acquiring HIV and their use of condoms is poorly understood. Understanding this relationship is crucial to the development of effective strategies to fight HIV and AIDS. Data from the Mozambique 2001 Adolescent and Young Adult Reproductive Health and Behavior Risk Survey are used to compare 15-24-year-olds' assessments of their HIV risk with assessments based on current and past sexual behavior. In bivariate and probit regression analyses, the relationship between correct risk assessment and the likelihood of condom use at last intercourse is examined. Twenty-seven percent of women and 80% of men who considered themselves to have no risk or a small risk of contracting HIV were actually at moderate or high risk. For both men and women, the prevalence of condom use at last sex was more than twice as high among those who assessed their risk correctly (30% and 16%, respectively) as among those who did not (14% and 6%). Multivariate analysis showed that correct assessment was positively associated with condom use; the association was driven by use among never-married individuals. Never-married males who assessed their risk correctly were 18% more likely than other males to report condom use; never-married females, 17% more likely than other females. Educational messages should aim at enabling individuals to correctly assess their own HIV risk and encouraging behavior change based on self-assessment of risk.

  20. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roger Skinner

    1992-01-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential

  1. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skinner, Roger

    1992-07-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential.

  2. A microbial identification framework for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernatchez, Stéphane; Anoop, Valar; Saikali, Zeina; Breton, Marie

    2018-06-01

    Micro-organisms are increasingly used in a variety of products for commercial uses, including cleaning products. Such microbial-based cleaning products (MBCP) are represented as a more environmentally-friendly alternative to chemically based cleaning products. The identity of the micro-organisms formulated into these products is often considered confidential business information and is not revealed or it is only partly revealed (i.e., identification to the genus, not to the species). That paucity of information complicates the evaluation of the risk associated with their use. The accurate taxonomic identification of those micro-organisms is important so that a suitable risk assessment of the products can be conducted. To alleviate difficulties associated with adequate identification of micro-organisms in MBCP and other products containing micro-organisms, a microbial identification framework for risk assessment (MIFRA) has been elaborated. It serves to provide guidance on a polyphasic tiered approach, combining the data obtained from the use of various methods (i.e., polyphasic approach) combined with the sequential selection of the methods (i.e., tiered) to achieve a satisfactory identity of the micro-organism to an acceptable taxonomic level. The MIFRA is suitable in various risk assessment contexts for micro-organisms used in any commercial product. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Assessment of health surveys: fitting a multidimensional graded response model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depaoli, Sarah; Tiemensma, Jitske; Felt, John M

    The multidimensional graded response model, an item response theory (IRT) model, can be used to improve the assessment of surveys, even when sample sizes are restricted. Typically, health-based survey development utilizes classical statistical techniques (e.g. reliability and factor analysis). In a review of four prominent journals within the field of Health Psychology, we found that IRT-based models were used in less than 10% of the studies examining scale development or assessment. However, implementing IRT-based methods can provide more details about individual survey items, which is useful when determining the final item content of surveys. An example using a quality of life survey for Cushing's syndrome (CushingQoL) highlights the main components for implementing the multidimensional graded response model. Patients with Cushing's syndrome (n = 397) completed the CushingQoL. Results from the multidimensional graded response model supported a 2-subscale scoring process for the survey. All items were deemed as worthy contributors to the survey. The graded response model can accommodate unidimensional or multidimensional scales, be used with relatively lower sample sizes, and is implemented in free software (example code provided in online Appendix). Use of this model can help to improve the quality of health-based scales being developed within the Health Sciences.

  4. Quantitative risk assessment of drinking water contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cothern, C.R.; Coniglio, W.A.; Marcus, W.L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of criteria and standards for the regulation of drinking water contaminants involves a variety of processes, one of which is risk estimation. This estimation process, called quantitative risk assessment, involves combining data on the occurrence of the contaminant in drinking water and its toxicity. The human exposure to a contaminant can be estimated from occurrence data. Usually the toxicity or number of health effects per concentration level is estimated from animal bioassay studies using the multistage model. For comparison, other models will be used including the Weibull, probit, logit and quadratic ones. Because exposure and toxicity data are generally incomplete, assumptions need to be made and this generally results in a wide range of certainty in the estimates. This range can be as wide as four to six orders of magnitude in the case of the volatile organic compounds in drinking water and a factor of four to five for estimation of risk due to radionuclides in drinking water. As examples of the differences encountered in risk assessment of drinking water contaminants, discussions are presented on benzene, lead, radon and alachlor. The lifetime population risk estimates for these contaminants are, respectively, in the ranges of: <1 - 3000, <1 - 8000, 2000-40,000 and <1 - 80. 11 references, 1 figure, 1 table

  5. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  6. A methodology for reviewing Probabilistic Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase. The value of this procedure comes from having a systematic framework for the PRA review. Practical constraints limit the time and qualified people needed for an adequate review. Having the established framework from this procedure as a starting point, reviewers can focus most of their attention on the accuracy and the completeness of the calculation. Time wasted at the start of the review is reduced by first using this procedure to sort through the technical details of the PRA and to reconstruct the risk estimate from dominant contributions

  7. Recent developments in carcinogenic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Murdoch, D.; Withey, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper, recent developments in the quantitative assessment of carcinogenic risks based on toxicological and epidemiological data are reviewed. In particular, model-free approaches to low-dose risk assessment which involve only the assumption of low-dose linearity are considered. Measures of carcinogenic potency which avoid the need to extrapolate to low doses are also described. The allometric bases for converting risk estimates between species are then discussed. Pharmacokinetic models for determining the dose delivered to the target tissue are examined, and the implications of using such models in extrapolating between doses, of exposure, and species are examined. The application of these concepts in chemical and radiation carcinogenesis is illustrated by means of brief case studies of methylene chloride and Rn. Biologically motivated cancer models based on the initiation-promotion-progression theory of carcinogenesis are discussed and compared with the classical multistage model. The estimation of risks with time-dependent exposure patterns is considered, and conditions under which the use of a time-weighted average dose is appropriate are identified. Finally, the estimation of carcinogenic risks posed by exposure to complex mixtures is explored. 92 references

  8. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  9. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, W.C.

    1984-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

  10. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    to a wide range of technical limitations. For instance, serious knowledge gaps remain within e.g. the detection of NM in the environment, developing adequate testing equipment and protocols, and toxicity endpoints (Grieger et al., 2009). In the past few years, many scientists and organizations have...... considered. Furthermore, we recommend the use of biomonitoring in some environmental ‘hot spots’ to serve as early warning detectors while the field of NM environmental risk assessment matures, as recommended in our previous work. Ultimately, this analysis may aid the advancement of environmental risk...

  11. A risk assessment of the SAFR plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutherford, P.D.; Mills, J.C.; Lancet, R.T.; Nourjah, P.

    1987-01-01

    The Sodium Advanced Fast Reactor (SAFR) is a modular, advanced concept, Liquid Metal Reactor (LMR), funded by the U.S., and designed by Rockwell International, Bechtel Corporation, and Combustion Engineering. SAFR utilizes the inherently safe features of small fast reactors, including natural convection decay heat removal systems, a self-actuated shutdown system (SASS) and inherent core response to design basis events without scram including transient overpower (TOP), loss of flow (LOF), and loss of heat sink (LOHS) events. A Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed which demonstrates considerable reduction in plant and public risk compared to current commercial reactors. (orig./HSCH)

  12. Health risk behavior among Thai youth: national survey 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirirassamee, Tawima; Sirirassamee, Buppha

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to establish the prevalence of risky health behaviors among Thai youth and to characterize the prevalence of these behaviors by gender, age group, educational status, and region. We analyzed data from a population-based, nationally representative, cross-sectional survey of 938 youth aged between 13 and 24 years, sampled from Bangkok and 4 regions of Thailand. The 2011 Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System questionnaire was used to measure youth risk behaviors. This study finds that 15.9% of respondents had engaged in physical fights, and 8.1% had been cyber bullied. The prevalence of current cigarette smoking, alcohol, and marijuana use were 22.3%, 27.9%, and 2.3%, respectively. The prevalence of risky behaviors among Thai youth were found to be high, including behaviors that contribute to unintentional injuries and violence, unsafe sexual behaviors, and cigarette and alcohol consumption. © 2014 APJPH.

  13. Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Jiejing; Ren, Jiaojiao; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Sun, Hong; Ning, Ning; Ding, Ding

    2017-06-04

    This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as "relatively low", contrasting with 21.4% rated as "relatively high". Most of the respondents (62.7%) did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders.

  14. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haigh, R [Industrial Medicine and Hygiene Unit Health and Safety Directorate, Directorate-General Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs Commission of the European Communities, Luxembourg (Luxembourg)

    1992-07-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live{exclamation_point} The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die{exclamation_point}. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk

  15. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haigh, R.

    1992-01-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live! The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die!. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk assessment in one country alone or to

  16. Nuclear risk assessment and public acceptance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savellano, R.A.

    1983-01-01

    The report describes the methodology and the results of a study of public attitudes towards five energy sources: nuclear power, hydro power, solar energy, oil and geothermal energy. The analysis is based on a survey carried out in the Metro Manila area in the Philippines. The samples consist of Barangay Leaders (192 respondents), Science teachers (170 respondents), and university students (174 respondents). The survey utilized a questionnaire which is based on a psychometric model and allows for internal cross-checking of independent attitude measures. The analysis shows that for all subgroups nuclear power is the least preferred option. Those opposing nuclear power also have negative attitudes towards oil and are less favourable towards the other energy systems also. It was found that the subjects strongly related nuclear power to environmental risks (which they did not for solar, hydro, geothermal) and were not convinced about its economic benefits. They rated the technological benefits of all the five energy systems equally high and believed in sociopolitical implications of all energy systems except solar energy. Women are strongly less favourable towards nuclear power and oil than men. They are also more afraid of its risks and less convinced about its benefits. The influence of other variables like age, education and information source is rather low. The report also compares public attitudes towards nuclear power and geothermal energy in the vicinity of a geothermal site in Dumaguete City in Negros Oriental

  17. Ionizing radiation risk assessment, BEIR IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-10-01

    This report of the Subpanel discusses the potential impact on Federal agencies and indicates individual risk factors that could be used by them in risk assessment. The approach used in this CIRRPC report was to consider the risk factors presented in BEIR IV for each radionuclide (or group radioelements) and to make some judgments regarding their validity and/or the uncertainties involved. The coverage of Radon-222 and its progeny dominated the BEIR IV report and this Subpanel felt is was proper to devote more attention to this radionuclide family. This risk factor presented in BEIR IV for radon is 350 cancer deaths per million person-working level months (WLM) of exposure for a lifetime. There is a range of opinions on the conversion from WLM to absorbed dose. As discussed in the text, the use of the WLM concept makes it difficult or infeasible to compare the risk factor for radon with that of other radionuclides which are based on organ dose. This report also includes a discussion of certain fundamental scientific and operational issues that may have decisive effect upon risk factor selection. These adjunct items are dealt with under separate headings and include discussions of threshold dose considerations, extrapolation to low doses, and age at exposure

  18. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  19. Survey Procedures Manual for the Environmental Survey and Site Assessment Program (ESSAP). Revision 10

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    The Environmental Survey and Site Assessment Program (ESSAP) of the Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE) conducts radiological survey activities under a contract with the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) and for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). ORISE and its programs are operated by Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU) through a contract with DOE. The purpose of this Procedures Manual is to provide a standardized set of procedures that document activities of the program in an auditable manner. These procedures are applicable to both DOE and NRC operations. Procedures presented in this manual are limited to those associated with site survey activities

  20. Sudbury soils study : summary of volume 3 : ecological risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-03-15

    The Sudbury soils study was comprised of 3 volumes: (1) a background, study organization and 2001 soils survey; (2) a human health risk assessment; and (3) an ecological risk assessment (ERA). This document provided details of the ERA, which was conducted to characterize the current and future risks of chemicals of concern (COC) to terrestrial and ecosystem components from Sudbury smelter particulate emissions. The extent to which COC are preventing the recovery of regionally representative terrestrial plant communities was investigated. Risks to terrestrial wildlife populations and endangered species and communities were evaluated. Samples of soil, water, sediment, plants, terrestrial invertebrates, and fish tissue were collected. Data were then analyzed by scientists and independent consultants in order to assess the impacts of arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, copper, lead, nickel and selenium. Results of the study indicated that terrestrial plant communities in the region continue to be impacted by COC in the soil, as well as by soil erosion, low nutrient levels, and a lack of soil organic matter. Direct impacts on wildlife populations were also observed. 5 refs., 7 tabs., 21 figs.

  1. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  2. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  3. Risk perception among nuclear power plant personnel: A survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kivimaeki, M.; Kalimo, R.

    1993-01-01

    This study investigated risk perception, well-being, and organizational commitment among nuclear power plant personnel. The study group, 428 employees from a nuclear power plant, completed a questionnaire which included the same questions as those in previous surveys on risk perception of lay persons and industrial workers. Hazards at work were not seen as a sizable problem by nuclear power plant personnel. The study group estimated the safety of nuclear power plants better and the possibility of a serious nuclear accident as more unlikely than the general public. Compared to employees in other industrial companies, the overall perceived risks at work among plant personnel did not exceed the respective perceptions of the reference groups. Risk-related attitudes did not explain well-being among plant personnel, but the relationship between the perceived probability of a serious nuclear accident at work and organizational commitment yielded to a significant correlation: Those plant workers who estimated the likelihood of an accident higher were less committed to the organization. 21 refs., 2 tabs

  4. National survey of emergency physicians for transient ischemic attack (TIA) risk stratification consensus and appropriate treatment for a given level of risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Jeffrey J; Losier, Justin H; Stiell, Ian G; Sharma, Mukul; Abdulaziz, Kasim

    2016-01-01

    Five percent of transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients have a subsequent stroke within 7 days. The Canadian TIA Score uses clinical findings to calculate the subsequent stroke risk within 7 days. Our objectives were to assess 1) anticipated use; 2) component face validity; 3) risk strata for stroke within 7 days; and 4) actions required, for a given risk for subsequent stroke. After a rigorous development process, a survey questionnaire was administered to a random sample of 300 emergency physicians selected from those registered in a national medical directory. The surveys were distributed using a modified Dillman technique. From a total of 271 eligible surveys, we received 131 (48.3%) completed surveys; 96.2% of emergency physicians would use a validated Canadian TIA Score; 8 of 13 components comprising the Canadian TIA Score were rated as Very Important or Important by survey respondents. Risk categories for subsequent stroke were defined as minimal-risk: 10% risk of subsequent stroke within 7 days. A validated Canadian TIA Score will likely be used by emergency physicians. Most components of the TIA Score have high face validity. Risk strata are definable, which may allow physicians to determine immediate actions, based on subsequent stroke risk, in the emergency department.

  5. Health risk assessment for program managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jump, R.A.; Williamson, D.S.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a sensitivity analysis into the independent variables that determine the levels of health risks posed by buried plutonium and americium at a typical contaminated site in an arid region. Environmental Restoration Program Managers often must make decisions concerning cleanup levels, remediation alternatives, schedules, cost estimates, etc. based upon extraordinarily safe assumptions about risk assessment calculation inputs. This study reveals to the Program Manager which variables are major drivers to the calculated levels of risk posed by transuranic radionuclides and which ones have second order effects or less. The findings of this study should indicate which inputs should be the focus of attention during negotiations with regulators and of further empirical investigation

  6. Assessing the risk of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letourneau, E.G.; McCullough, R.S.; Meyerhof, D.P.; Somers, E.; Waight, P.J.

    1981-01-01

    The current concern with diminishing supplies of non-renewable energy has brought into clearer focus the debate on the future of nuclear energy. Application of the risk assessment process to the biological effects of radiation is considered worthwhile so that the nature and order of the hazards entailed can be appreciated in the total context of the problem. The derivation of regulations and the process of cost-risk-benefit analysis are also discussed. In view of the widespread public concern and, on occasion, apprehension about the development of nuclear energy it has been thought useful to tabulate the elements of this concern so as to gain a fuller understanding of the manner in which the public perceives and weighs risks. (author)

  7. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... parameters for estimating the risk. The immediate human risk of BADGE and derivatives in topical dosage forms was found to be low. However, local treatment of broken skin may lead to higher exposure of BADGE and derivatives compared to application to normal skin. 3-BC permeated skin at higher flux than 4-MBC...

  8. N reactor external events probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baxter, J.T.

    1989-01-01

    An external events probabilistic risk assessment of the N Reactor has been completed. The methods used are those currently being proposed for external events analysis in NUREG-1150. Results are presented for the external hazards that survived preliminary screening. They are earthquake, fire, and external flood. Core damage frequencies for these hazards are shown to be comparable to those for commercial pressurized water reactors. Dominant fire sequences are described and related to 10 CFR 50, Appendix R design requirements. Potential remedial measures that reduce fire core damage risk are described including modifications to fire protection systems, procedure changes, and addition of new administrative controls. Dominant seismic sequences are described. The effect of non-safety support system dependencies on seismic risk is presented

  9. Supplemental Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment - Hydrotreater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Peter P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wagner, Katie A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-04-01

    A supplemental hazard analysis was conducted and quantitative risk assessment performed in response to an independent review comment received by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) from the U.S. Department of Energy Pacific Northwest Field Office (PNSO) against the Hydrotreater/Distillation Column Hazard Analysis Report issued in April 2013. The supplemental analysis used the hazardous conditions documented by the previous April 2013 report as a basis. The conditions were screened and grouped for the purpose of identifying whether additional prudent, practical hazard controls could be identified, using a quantitative risk evaluation to assess the adequacy of the controls and establish a lower level of concern for the likelihood of potential serious accidents. Calculations were performed to support conclusions where necessary.

  10. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  11. Civil migration and risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onishi, Y.; Brown, S.M.; Olsen, A.R.; Parkhurst, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    To provide a scientific basis for risk assessment and decision making, the Chemical Migration and Risk Assessment (CMRA) Methodology was developed to simulate overland and instream toxic containment migration and fate, and to predict the probability of acute and chronic impacts on aquatic biota. The simulation results indicated that the time between the pesticide application and the subsequent runoff producing event was the most important factor determining the amount of the alachlor. The study also revealed that sediment transport has important effects on contaminant migration when sediment concentrations in receiving streams are high or contaminants are highly susceptible to adsorption by sediment. Although the capabilities of the CMRA methodology were only partially tested in this study, the results demonstrate that methodology can be used as a scientific decision-making tool for toxic chemical regulations, a research tool to evaluate the relative significance of various transport and degradation phenomena, as well as a tool to examine the effectiveness of toxic chemical control practice

  12. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  13. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojo, F J Romero; Roy, R; Kelly, S

    2012-01-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  14. Risk assessment in the European Community (EC); perspective as partial contributor in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinck, W.

    1981-01-01

    This paper is oriented towards the use of nuclear power for electricity production. The subject is discussed under the following headings: preamble; survey of practice and trends in reliability analyses and risk assessment:general (the risk concept; the types of reliability and risk analysis; the present state and trends of a probabilistic approach in safety analysis); risk analysis, partial contributor in the acceptability-problem (the political scene; technological society; cost effectiveness of risk reduction, cost-risk-benefit balancing; risk perception and acceptance; comparison of energy systems); need for and limitations of quantified safety objectives. (U.K.)

  15. BEHAVIOR RISK FACTORS IN INDONESIA: NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD HEALTH SURVEY 2001

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ch. M. Kristanti

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available A series of National Household Health Surveys (NHHS reported the occurrence of epidemiological transition caused by demographic transition and prolonged economical diversity, Communicable diseases are still prevalent, followed by the emergence of Non Communicable Diseases (NCDs, which are due to an increasing level of behavior risk factors in the population. In the NHHS 2001, a morbidity survey collected information about behavioral risk indicators, whereas the WHO'S STEPwise approach was one of the study instruments. The 'WHO Step 1 questionnaire' was adapted with some modifications. Samples of NHHS, morbidity survey was sub-sample of module sample of National Social Economic Survey (NSES 2001. A sample of 15,148 people aged 10 years+ were analyzed to identify their behavior regarding smoking, alcohol consumption and physical activity. These findings are a representation of the national figures, which were presented by characteristics of the population such as: sex, age, residence, region and economic status. Economic status was divided into 5 strata, which were calculated from a quintile of household expenditure. The results showed that 29.7% of the population aged 10 years+ are daily smokers. This is more prevalent in males than females (58.9% vs. 3.7%. This behavior increases by age group, except for the oldest; there are slightly more smokers in rural areas than urban areas (31% vs. 28%, and no difference among regions (30-31%. Those with better economic status are less likely to smoke than poorer ones. Alcohol consumption is reportedly very low (2.7%, more prevalent in males than females (4.9% vs. 0.8%, and higher in rural areas than urban areas (3.1% vs. 2.1%. Eastern Indonesia, was higher than Sumatra, Java and Bali (6.3%, 4.7%, and 1.2% respectively. There were no differences in alcohol consumption according to economic status'.' Physical inactivity is very high (68%, more prevalent in females than males (73% vs. 63%, and higher in

  16. Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Yaghoubpour

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of ​​Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.

  17. Pesticide residues and bees--a risk assessment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Sanchez-Bayo

    Full Text Available Bees are essential pollinators of many plants in natural ecosystems and agricultural crops alike. In recent years the decline and disappearance of bee species in the wild and the collapse of honey bee colonies have concerned ecologists and apiculturalists, who search for causes and solutions to this problem. Whilst biological factors such as viral diseases, mite and parasite infections are undoubtedly involved, it is also evident that pesticides applied to agricultural crops have a negative impact on bees. Most risk assessments have focused on direct acute exposure of bees to agrochemicals from spray drift. However, the large number of pesticide residues found in pollen and honey demand a thorough evaluation of all residual compounds so as to identify those of highest risk to bees. Using data from recent residue surveys and toxicity of pesticides to honey and bumble bees, a comprehensive evaluation of risks under current exposure conditions is presented here. Standard risk assessments are complemented with new approaches that take into account time-cumulative effects over time, especially with dietary exposures. Whilst overall risks appear to be low, our analysis indicates that residues of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid insecticides pose the highest risk by contact exposure of bees with contaminated pollen. However, the synergism of ergosterol inhibiting fungicides with those two classes of insecticides results in much higher risks in spite of the low prevalence of their combined residues. Risks by ingestion of contaminated pollen and honey are of some concern for systemic insecticides, particularly imidacloprid and thiamethoxam, chlorpyrifos and the mixtures of cyhalothrin and ergosterol inhibiting fungicides. More attention should be paid to specific residue mixtures that may result in synergistic toxicity to bees.

  18. Pesticide Residues and Bees – A Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Bayo, Francisco; Goka, Koichi

    2014-01-01

    Bees are essential pollinators of many plants in natural ecosystems and agricultural crops alike. In recent years the decline and disappearance of bee species in the wild and the collapse of honey bee colonies have concerned ecologists and apiculturalists, who search for causes and solutions to this problem. Whilst biological factors such as viral diseases, mite and parasite infections are undoubtedly involved, it is also evident that pesticides applied to agricultural crops have a negative impact on bees. Most risk assessments have focused on direct acute exposure of bees to agrochemicals from spray drift. However, the large number of pesticide residues found in pollen and honey demand a thorough evaluation of all residual compounds so as to identify those of highest risk to bees. Using data from recent residue surveys and toxicity of pesticides to honey and bumble bees, a comprehensive evaluation of risks under current exposure conditions is presented here. Standard risk assessments are complemented with new approaches that take into account time-cumulative effects over time, especially with dietary exposures. Whilst overall risks appear to be low, our analysis indicates that residues of pyrethroid and neonicotinoid insecticides pose the highest risk by contact exposure of bees with contaminated pollen. However, the synergism of ergosterol inhibiting fungicides with those two classes of insecticides results in much higher risks in spite of the low prevalence of their combined residues. Risks by ingestion of contaminated pollen and honey are of some concern for systemic insecticides, particularly imidacloprid and thiamethoxam, chlorpyrifos and the mixtures of cyhalothrin and ergosterol inhibiting fungicides. More attention should be paid to specific residue mixtures that may result in synergistic toxicity to bees. PMID:24718419

  19. Risk assessment of tailings facility dam failure

    OpenAIRE

    Hadzi-Nikolova, Marija; Mirakovski, Dejan; Stefanova, Violeta

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the consequences of tailings facility dam failure and therefore the needs for its risk assessment. Tailings are fine-grained wastes of the mining industry, output as slurries, due to mixing with water during mineral processing. Tailings dams vary a lot as it is affected by: tailings characteristics and mill output, site characteristics as: topography, hydrology, geology, groundwater, seismicity and available material and disposal methods. The talings which accumulat...

  20. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    OpenAIRE

    Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Kelly, S.

    2013-01-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for th...

  1. Information Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    alternative root be economically advantageous , an actor’s ability to exploit market forces and create an alternative root would be significantly improved...conduct their operations. Therefore, a loss or disruption to Internet services would not be advantageous for the desired outcomes of these syndicates.26... eCommerce Service loss or disruption [C] Traffic Redirection [C] = Undesired consequence Information Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment

  2. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McVeigh, C.A.

    1996-01-01

    An overview of various aspects of mergers and acquisition transactions in the petroleum industry were presented. Incentives to mergers and acquisitions were reviewed and discussed, among them value opportunity, critical size, incremental tax pools, financial distress, shareholder dissatisfaction, strategic infrastructure position, complementary assets, and undeveloped land inventory. Current trends in mergers and acquisitions were highlighted. An industry checklist for risk assessments discussing financial position, engineering forecasts, and taxation was also included

  3. Remarks on sequential designs in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seidenfeld, T.

    1982-01-01

    The special merits of sequential designs are reviewed in light of particular challenges that attend risk assessment for human population. The kinds of ''statistical inference'' are distinguished and the problem of design which is pursued is the clash between Neyman-Pearson and Bayesian programs of sequential design. The value of sequential designs is discussed and the Neyman-Pearson vs. Bayesian sequential designs are probed in particular. Finally, warnings with sequential designs are considered, especially in relation to utilitarianism

  4. Insights gained through probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hitchler, M.J.; Burns, N.L.; Liparulo, N.J.; Mink, F.J.

    1987-01-01

    The insights gained through a comparison of seven probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) studies (Italian PUN, Sizewell B, Ringhals 2, Millstone 3, Zion 1 and 2, Oconee 3, and Seabrook) included insights regarding the adequacy of the PRA technology utilized in the studies and the potential areas for improvement and insights regarding the adequacy of plant designs and how PRA has been utilized to enhance the design and operation of nuclear power plants

  5. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  6. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  7. Weighted normalized risk factor for floods risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Mohamed Elmoustafa

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA describes any structured approach used to determine overall preferences among alternative options, where options accomplish certain or several objectives. The flood protection of properties is a highly important issue due to the damage, danger and other hazards associated to it to human life, properties, and environment. To determine the priority of execution of protection works for any project, many aspects should be considered in order to decide the areas to start the data collection and analysis with. Multi criteria analysis techniques were tested and evaluated for the purpose of flood risk assessment, hydro-morphological parameters were used in this analysis. Finally a suitable technique was chosen and tested to be adopted as a mark of flood risk level and results were presented.

  8. Quantum chemistry in environmental pesticide risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villaverde, Juan J; López-Goti, Carmen; Alcamí, Manuel; Lamsabhi, Al Mokhtar; Alonso-Prados, José L; Sandín-España, Pilar

    2017-11-01

    The scientific community and regulatory bodies worldwide, currently promote the development of non-experimental tests that produce reliable data for pesticide risk assessment. The use of standard quantum chemistry methods could allow the development of tools to perform a first screening of compounds to be considered for the experimental studies, improving the risk assessment. This fact results in a better distribution of resources and in better planning, allowing a more exhaustive study of the pesticides and their metabolic products. The current paper explores the potential of quantum chemistry in modelling toxicity and environmental behaviour of pesticides and their by-products by using electronic descriptors obtained computationally. Quantum chemistry has potential to estimate the physico-chemical properties of pesticides, including certain chemical reaction mechanisms and their degradation pathways, allowing modelling of the environmental behaviour of both pesticides and their by-products. In this sense, theoretical methods can contribute to performing a more focused risk assessment of pesticides used in the market, and may lead to higher quality and safer agricultural products. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  9. Risk assessment to an integrated planning model for UST programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferguson, K.W.

    1993-01-01

    The US Postal Service maintains the largest civilian fleet in the United States totaling approximately 180,000 vehicles. To support the fleets daily energy requirements, the Postal Service also operates one of the largest networks of underground storage tanks nearly 7,500 nationwide. A program to apply risk assessment to planning, budget development and other management actions was implemented during September, 1989. Working closely with a consultant, the postal service developed regulatory and environmental risk criteria and weighting factors for a ranking model. The primary objective was to identify relative risks for each underground tank at individual facilities. Relative risks at each facility were determined central to prioritizing scheduled improvements to the tank network. The survey was conducted on 302 underground tanks in the Northeast Region of the US. An environmental and regulatory risk score was computed for each UST. By ranking the tanks according to their risk score, tanks were classified into management action categories including, but the limited to, underground tank testing, retrofit, repair, replacement and closure

  10. Lessons learned from first generation nuclear plant probabalistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1984-01-01

    The paper by Garrick summarizes the state-of-the-art in what are perhaps the most archetypical probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs). Because of its unique regulatory environment and because of the high levels of perceived (not necessarily actual) risk, the nuclear industry more than any other has been concerned with quantitative risk analysis. Garrick's paper summarizes the lessons learned from ten PRA's conducted in the nuclear industry, including six that can be characterized as full-scope risk studies. Most of the quantitative data, though, came from two especially thorough studies done for the Zion and Indian Point power plants, operated by Commonwealth Edison and Consolidated Edison respectively. The principal conclusions of the Garrick survey are that the public risk (from radiation release) is now known to be very small for commercial nuclear power plants, but that the risk to utilities (from core damage) is somewhat larger. Significant radiation releases require both core meltdown -- an event occurring only about once every 10,000 reactor-years -- and containment failure, occurring only about once in every hundred meltdowns

  11. Surveying Assessment in Experiential Learning: A Single Campus Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Yates

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine the methods of experiential assessment in use at a Canadian university and the extent to which they are used. Exploring experiential assessment will allow identification of commonly used methods and facilitate the development of best practices of assessment in the context of experiential learning (EL at an institutional level. The origins of EL are found in the work of Dewey (1938, later modified by Kolb and Fry (1975. Experiential methods include: experiential education, service learning problem-based learning and others such as action learning, enquiry-based learning, and case studies. Faculty currently involved in EL at the participating university were invited to complete an online survey about their teaching and assessment methods. This paper will share the results and analysis of the EL inventory survey.

  12. Comparison of landslide hazard and risk assessment practices in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O.

    2012-04-01

    An overview is made of the landslide hazard and risk assessment practices that are officially promoted or applied in Europe by administration offices, geological surveys, and decision makers (recommendations, regulations and codes). The reported countries are: Andorra, Austria, France, Italy (selected river basins), Romania, Spain (Catalonia), Switzerland and United Kingdom. The objective here was to compare the different practices for hazard and risk evaluation with respect to the official policies, the methodologies used (qualitative and quantitative), the provided outputs and their contents, and the terminology and map symbols used. The main observations made are illustrated with examples and the possibility of harmonization of the policies and the application of common practices to bridge the existing gaps is discussed. Some of the conclusions reached include the following: zoning maps are legally binding for public administrators and land owners only in some cases and generally when referring to site-specific or local scales rather than regional or national ones; so far, information is mainly provided on landslide susceptibility and hazard and risk assessment is performed only in a few countries; there is a variation in the use of scales between countries; the classification criteria for landslide types and mechanisms present large diversity even within the same country (in some cases no landslide mechanisms are specified while in others there is an exhaustive list); the techniques to obtain input data for the landslide inventory and susceptibility maps vary from basic to sophisticated, resulting in various levels of data quality and quantity; the procedures followed for hazard and risk assessment include analytical procedures supported by computer simulation, weighted-indicators, expert judgment and field survey-based, or a combination of all; there is an important variation between hazard and risk matrices with respect to the used parameters, the thresholds

  13. Comparative risk assessment in the energy industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1981-01-01

    This paper covers four approaches to risk assessment in the energy industry. The first is a comparison of the primary fuel cycles - coal and nuclear - standardized to 1 GW(e) power-plant year; this gives the societal risk of the production of a standardized amount of electricity. An example from underground coal mining is given to show how these estimates for the fuel cycles were made. The second approach is a comparison of the societal and individual occupational risks for different energy cycles per GWy(e). The third approach is a comparison of the societal and individual occupational risks of four different types of photovoltaic cell manufacture; this is an example of an intratechnology comparison. The fourth approach is a risk accounting method of analysis which estimates occupational health impacts for fabrication, construction, operation, and maintenance of energy technologies, and which, through an input-output model of the national economy, includes system-wide impacts as well as direct impacts of building and operating energy facilities

  14. Bioavailability in ecological risk. Assessment for radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnier-Laplace, J.; Gilbin, R.; Della-Vedova, C.; Adam, C.; Simon, O.; Denison, F.; Beaugelin, K.

    2005-01-01

    The guidance for performing Ecological Risk Assessments (ERA) in Europe has been published in 2003 in the EC's Technical Guidance Document. This document constitutes the official reference in which current water quality standards and risk assessment approach for metals/metalloids are still mainly based on total or dissolved concentrations. However, it has been recognized that accurate assessment of the bio-available metal fraction is crucial, even if the way to incorporate bioavailability into these procedures is still under discussion. The speciation of a pollutant in the exposure medium is the first factor that regulates its bioavailability and consequently its bioaccumulation and the induced biological effects. Therefore, within any ecological risk assessment, bioavailability has obvious implications: firstly in exposure analysis which aim is to determine Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC); secondly in effect analysis while deriving the so-called Predicted No-Effect Concentrations (PNEC) as toxicity is often linked to the amount of the contaminant incorporated into the tissues of biota. Similarities between metals/metalloids and radionuclides are limited to the biogeochemical behaviour of the element considered and to the need to use bioavailability models. In addition, for radionuclides, emitted ionising radiations (type and energy) need to be taken into account for both exposure and effect analyses whilst performing dosimetric calculations appropriate to the exposure scenarios. A methodology for properly implementing bioavailability models is explained and illustrated for aqueous U(VI), starting from a comprehensive review of the thermodynamic data relevant to environmentally-realistic physico-chemical conditions. Then, the use of thermodynamic equilibrium modelling as a tool for interpreting the bioavailability of U(VI) is presented. Using a systematic approach, different bioavailability models of increasing complexity were tested to model U bio

  15. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  16. Usability of the Upper Limb Risk Assessment (UPLIRA Method for Assessing the Risk Factors of Upper Limb Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abd Razak Noor Syafiqa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available It is important to design ergonomic methods or assessment with a high usability and good ergonomic features, so the method is easily adaptable to the task and the workplace environment. Usability is a measurement on how well the user can use that functionality. The study converged on testing the usability of the new tools for assessing ULDs namely as Upper Limb Risk Assessment (UPLIRA. The UPLIRA method was evaluated by 6 students (3 undergraduate students and 3 postgraduates students from University Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM who are conducting research in ergonomic. From the feedback survey of UPLIRA method, the observers agree that the prototype of UPLIRA tool was applicable to workplace assessment for the wide range of jobs/task (mean 4.00, SD:0.632 with 83% percentage of agreement . They also indicate that UPLIRA method is quick to use (mean 3.67, SD:1.033 with percentage agreement of 67%. The scoring system and action level was rated as easy to understand (mean 3.67, SD:1.211 and (mean 4.17, SD:0.408. Conclusively, the UPLIRA method was rated as straightforward to use, applicable to wide range of tasks, and time saving as assessment can be completed within 10 minutes. In addition, the UPLIRA assessment covers an extensive range of physical, psychosocial, work organizational, and individual risk factors.

  17. Research Note Pilot survey to assess sample size for herbaceous ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A pilot survey to determine sub-sample size (number of point observations per plot) for herbaceous species composition assessments, using a wheel-point apparatus applying the nearest-plant method, was conducted. Three plots differing in species composition on the Zululand coastal plain were selected, and on each plot ...

  18. Building Assessment Survey and Evaluation Study Summarized Data - HVAC Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the Building Assessment Survey and Evaluation (BASE) Study Information on the characteristics of the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system(s) in the entire BASE building including types of ventilation, equipment configurations, and operation and maintenance issues was acquired by examining the building plans, conducting a building walk-through, and speaking with the building owner, manager, and/or operator.

  19. Effectiveness, Teaching, and Assessments: Survey Evidence from Finance Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Ming Ming; Kwan, Jing Hui; Kadir, Hazlina Abdul; Abdullah, Mahdhir; Yap, Voon Choong

    2010-01-01

    The present article examines the effectiveness, teaching, assessment methods, and the importance of finance concepts in three undergraduate finance courses in a private university in Malaysia. Approximately 224 undergraduates (finance majors) were surveyed and demonstrated positive attitudes toward the effectiveness of the finance subjects. The…

  20. Assessing Risks of Mine Tailing Dam Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha Larrauri, P.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    The consequences of tailings dam failures can be catastrophic for communities and ecosystems in the vicinity of the dams. The failure of the Fundão tailings dam at the Samarco mine in 2015 killed 19 people with severe consequences for the environment. The financial and legal consequences of a tailings dam failure can also be significant for the mining companies. For the Fundão tailings dam, the company had to pay 6 billion dollars in fines and twenty-one executives were charged with qualified murder. There are tenths of thousands of active, inactive, and abandoned tailings dams in the world and there is a need to better understand the hazards posed by these structures to downstream populations and ecosystems. A challenge to assess the risks of tailings dams in a large scale is that many of them are not registered in publicly available databases and there is little information about their current physical state. Additionally, hazard classifications of tailings dams - common in many countries- tend to be subjective, include vague parameter definitions, and are not always updated over time. Here we present a simple methodology to assess and rank the exposure to tailings dams using ArcGIS that removes subjective interpretations. The method uses basic information such as current dam height, storage volume, topography, population, land use, and hydrological data. A hazard rating risk was developed to compare the potential extent of the damage across dams. This assessment provides a general overview of what in the vicinity of the tailings dams could be affected in case of a failure and a way to rank tailings dams that is directly linked to the exposure at any given time. One hundred tailings dams in Minas Gerais, Brazil were used for the test case. This ranking approach could inform the risk management strategy of the tailings dams within a company, and when disclosed, it could enable shareholders and the communities to make decisions on the risks they are taking.