WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment strategy

  1. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  2. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. J. Bos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  3. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  4. 77 FR 26292 - Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-03

    ...] Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science Methodologies to Assess Goals... announcing a public workshop entitled ``Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy Assessments: Social Science... constructive dialogue and information-sharing among regulators, researchers, the pharmaceutical industry...

  5. Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, Joshua A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foxall, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bachmann, Corinne [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chiaramonte, Laura [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Daley, Thomas M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-01-28

    Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO2 injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO2 injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO2 storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO2-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk

  6. ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunamis are low frequency but high impact natural disasters. In 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people from many nations along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami run-up exceeded 35 m. Seven years later, and in spite of some of the best warning technologies and levels of preparedness in the world, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in Japan dramatically showed the limitations of scientific knowledge on tsunami sources, coastal impacts and mitigation measures. The experience from Japan raised serious questions on how to improve the resilience of coastal communities, to upgrade the performance of coastal defenses, to adopt a better risk management, and also on the strategies and priorities for the reconstruction of damaged coastal areas. Societal resilience requires the reinforcement of capabilities to manage and reduce risk at national and local scales.ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe), a 36-month FP7 project, aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in this region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all CTWPs of NEAM and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) basic knowledge of tsunami generation and recurrence going beyond simple catalogues, with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas of NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation, with focus on real-time codes and novel statistical emulation approaches, and iii) methods for assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better tools for forecast and warning for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant

  7. Ecological models for regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: Developing a strategy for the future.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorbek, P.; Forbes, V.; Heimbach, F.; Hommen, U.; Thulke, H.H.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2010-01-01

    Ecological Models for Regulatory Risk Assessments of Pesticides: Developing a Strategy for the Future provides a coherent, science-based view on ecological modeling for regulatory risk assessments. It discusses the benefits of modeling in the context of registrations, identifies the obstacles that

  8. The Role of Alternative Testing Strategies in Environmental Risk Assessment of Engineered Nanomaterials

    OpenAIRE

    Hjorth, Rune; Holden, Patricia; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Colman, Ben; Grieger, Khara; Hendren, Christine

    2017-01-01

    Within toxicology there is a pressure to find new test systems and organisms to replace, reduce and refine animal testing. In nanoecotoxicology the need for alternative testing strategies (ATS) is further emphasized as the validity of tests and risk assessment practices developed for dissolved chemicals are challenged. Nonetheless, standardized whole organism animal testing is still considered the gold standard for environmental risk assessment. Advancing risk analysis of engineered nanomater...

  9. Risk Assessment and Life Cycle Assessment, Environmental Strategies, Nordic Workshop, Vedbæk 1999

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poll, Christian

    At a Nordic workshop on Product-oriented Environmental Strategies the roles of risk and hazard assessment and life cycle assessment of products in the future regulation of chemicals were discussed by participants representing administration, academia and industry from the Nordic countries....... This report compiles the papers and presentations given at the workshop. The papers present and discuss the different assessment tools and procedures - for individual chemicals through hazard and risk assessments and for products, materials and services through life-cycle assessment. The report also contains......, consultants and private enterprises to consider these well-established tools as individually necessary for the future regulation of the chemical pressure on the environment and to accept them as complementary to each other. Together with other process- or chain oriented tools like Substance or Material Flow...

  10. Approach and strategy for performing ecological risk assessments for the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation: 1994 revision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, G.W. II; Sample, B.E.; Jones, D.S.; Ashwood, T.L.

    1994-08-01

    This report provides guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). The tiered approach to ecological risk assessment has been implemented, generic conceptual models have been developed, and a general approach for developing ecological assessment endpoints and measurement endpoints has been agreed upon. The document also includes changes in terminology to agree with the terminology in the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) framework for ecological risk assessment. Although ecological risks are equal in regulatory importance to human health risks, formal procedures for ecological risk assessment are poorly developed. This report will provide specific guidance and promote the use of consistent approaches for ecological risk assessments at individual sites on the ORR. The strategy discussed in this report is consistent with the overall strategy for site management and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) compliance and with relevant EPA guidance. The general approach and strategy presented herein was developed for the ORR, but it should be applicable to other complex CERCLA sites that possess significant ecological resources

  11. Risk assessment for the intentional depressurization strategy in PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingman, S.E.

    1994-03-01

    An accident management strategy has been proposed in which the reactor coolant system is intentionally depressurized during an accident. The aim is to reduce the containment pressurization that would result from high pressure ejection of molten debris at vessel breach. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods were used to evaluate this strategy for the Surry nuclear power plant. Sensitivity studies were conducted using event trees that were developed for the NUREG-1150 study. It was found that depressurization (intentional or unintentional) had minimal impact on the containment failure probability at vessel breach for Surry because the containment loads assessed for NUREG-1150 were not a great threat to the containment survivability. An updated evaluation of the impact of intentional depressurization on the probability of having a high pressure melt ejection was then made that reflected analyses that have been performed since NUREG-1150 was completed. The updated evaluation confirmed the sensitivity study conclusions that intentional depressurization has minimal impact on the probability of a high pressure melt ejection. The updated evaluation did show a slight benefit from depressurization because depressurization delayed core melting, which led to a higher probability of recovering emergency core coolant injection, thereby arresting the core damage

  12. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  13. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2017-10-19

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  14. Approach and strategy for performing ecological risk assessments for the U.S. Department of Energy`s Oak Ridge Reservation: 1994 revision

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter, G.W. II; Sample, B.E.; Jones, D.S.; Ashwood, T.L.

    1994-08-01

    This report provides guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). The tiered approach to ecological risk assessment has been implemented, generic conceptual models have been developed, and a general approach for developing ecological assessment endpoints and measurement endpoints has been agreed upon. The document also includes changes in terminology to agree with the terminology in the US Environmental Protection Agency`s (EPA`s) framework for ecological risk assessment. Although ecological risks are equal in regulatory importance to human health risks, formal procedures for ecological risk assessment are poorly developed. This report will provide specific guidance and promote the use of consistent approaches for ecological risk assessments at individual sites on the ORR. The strategy discussed in this report is consistent with the overall strategy for site management and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) compliance and with relevant EPA guidance. The general approach and strategy presented herein was developed for the ORR, but it should be applicable to other complex CERCLA sites that possess significant ecological resources.

  15. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  16. Strategy for integrated CERCLA/NEPA risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Peterson, J.M.; Blunt, D.A.; Fingleton, D.J.; Picel, M.H.

    1991-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has established a policy whereby, for remedial actions, the procedural and documentational requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are integrated with those of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. However, the objectives of risk assessment under NEPA and CERCLA differ somewhat. Until its recent application at contaminated sites, NEPA analysis has typically been applied to impacts from taking actions at clean sites (e.g., for construction activities), and a somewhat loosely structured process has historically been used to estimate relative risks for NEPA analyses. Decisions such as cleanup levels were not made on the basis of the risk estimates, and they therefore tended to be conservative and were not discussed in detail. In contrast, risks estimated for Superfund (CERCLA) sites are used to focus the decision-making process for those sites and support national prioritization for cleanup, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a detailed framework for preparing baseline health risk assessments for these sites. The purpose of this paper is to discuss issues related to intergrating the CERCLA and NEPA approaches into the risk assessments that have been prepared for a DOE remedial action project at the Weldon Spring site near St. Charles, Missouri. These issues are grouped into three basic categories: general assumptions for the impact evaluation, data management, and presentation of the methodology and results. This paper is not intended to represent DOE policy and guidance, nor does it represent the only approach that can be used for integrated risk assessments. It merely discusses the process that was used for the Weldon Spring project, articulating the issues that were encountered and how they were addressed

  17. An Assessment of risk response strategies practiced in software projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanita Bhoola

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk management and success in projects are highly intertwined – better approaches to project risk management tend to increase chances of project success in terms of achieving scope & quality, schedule and cost targets. The process of responding to risk factors during a project’s life cycle is a crucial aspect of risk management referred to as risk response strategies, in this paper. The current research explores the status of risk response strategies applied in the software development projects in India. India provides a young IT-savvy English-speaking population, which is also cost effective. Other than the workforce, the environment for implementation of software projects in India is different from the matured economies. Risk management process is a commonly discussed theme, though its implementation in practice has a huge scope for improvement in India. The paper talks about four fundamental treatments to risk response – Avoidance, Transference, Mitigation and Acceptance (ATMA. From a primary data of 302 project managers, the paper attempts to address the risk response factors that lead to successful achievement of project scope & quality, schedule and cost targets, by using a series of regressions followed with Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE modelling. Mitigation emerged as the most significant risk response strategy to achieve project targets. Acceptance, transference, and avoidance of risk were mostly manifested in the forms of transparency in communication across stakeholders, careful study of the nature of risks and close coordination between project team, customers/end-users and top management.

  18. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  19. Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebari, Karim

    2015-06-01

    A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously.

  20. Risk impact of two accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

    1992-01-01

    This report probabilistic Risk Assessment is used to evaluate two accident management strategies: intentionally depressurizing the reactor coolant system of a pressurized water reactor to prevent containment-pressurization during high pressure melt ejection, and flooding the containment of a boiling water reactor to prevent or delay vessel breach. Sensitivity studies indicated that intentional depressurization would not provide a significant risk reduction at Surry. A preliminary evaluation of the containment flooding strategy indicated that it might prove beneficial for some plants, but that further strategy development would be needed to fully evaluate the strategy-

  1. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  2. Risk evaluation of accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingman, S.; Camp, A.

    1992-01-01

    The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methods to evaluate accident management strategies in nuclear power plants discussed in this paper. The PRA framework allows an integrated evaluation to be performed to give the full implications of a particular strategy. The methodology is demonstrated for a particular accident management strategy, intentional depressurization of the reactor coolant system to avoid containment pressurization during the ejection of molten debris at vessel breach

  3. Strategy for an assessment of cumulative ecological impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, P.; Collins, J.; Nelsen, J.

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a strategy to conduct an assessment of the cumulative ecological impact of operations at the 300-square-mile Savannah River Site. This facility has over 400 identified waste units and contains several large watersheds. In addition to individual waste units, residual contamination must be evaluated in terms of its contribution to ecological risks at zonal and site-wide levels. DOE must be able to generate sufficient information to facilitate cleanup in the immediate future within the context of a site-wide ecological risk assessment that may not be completed for many years. The strategy superimposes a more global perspective on ecological assessments of individual waste units and provides strategic underpinnings for conducting individual screening-level and baseline risk assessments at the operable unit and zonal or watershed levels. It identifies ecological endpoints and risk assessment tools appropriate for each level of the risk assessment. In addition, it provides a clear mechanism for identifying clean sites through screening-level risk assessments and for elevating sites with residual contamination to the next level of assessment. Whereas screening-level and operable unit-level risk assessments relate directly to cleanup, zonal and site-wide assessments verity or confirm the overall effectiveness of remediation. The latter assessments must show, for example, whether multiple small areas with residual pesticide contamination that have minimal individual impact would pose a cumulative risk from bioaccumulation because they are within the habitat range of an ecological receptor

  4. A practical approach to assess depression risk and to guide risk reduction strategies in later life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Osvaldo P; Alfonso, Helman; Pirkis, Jane; Kerse, Ngaire; Sim, Moira; Flicker, Leon; Snowdon, John; Draper, Brian; Byrne, Gerard; Goldney, Robert; Lautenschlager, Nicola T; Stocks, Nigel; Scazufca, Marcia; Huisman, Martijn; Araya, Ricardo; Pfaff, Jon

    2011-03-01

    Many factors have been associated with the onset and maintenance of depressive symptoms in later life, although this knowledge is yet to be translated into significant health gains for the population. This study gathered information about common modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for depression with the aim of developing a practical probabilistic model of depression that can be used to guide risk reduction strategies. A cross-sectional study was undertaken of 20,677 community-dwelling Australians aged 60 years or over in contact with their general practitioner during the preceding 12 months. Prevalent depression (minor or major) according to the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) assessment was the main outcome of interest. Other measured exposures included self-reported age, gender, education, loss of mother or father before age 15 years, physical or sexual abuse before age 15 years, marital status, financial stress, social support, smoking and alcohol use, physical activity, obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and prevalent cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. The mean age of participants was 71.7 ± 7.6 years and 57.9% were women. Depression was present in 1665 (8.0%) of our subjects. Multivariate logistic regression showed depression was independently associated with age older than 75 years, childhood adverse experiences, adverse lifestyle practices (smoking, risk alcohol use, physical inactivity), intermediate health hazards (obesity, diabetes and hypertension), comorbid medical conditions (clinical history of coronary heart disease, stroke, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emphysema or cancers), and social or financial strain. We stratified the exposures to build a matrix that showed that the probability of depression increased progressively with the accumulation of risk factors, from less than 3% for those with no adverse factors to more than 80% for people reporting the maximum number of risk factors. Our

  5. NASA Space Radiation Protection Strategies: Risk Assessment and Permissible Exposure Limits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huff, J. L.; Patel, Z. S.; Simonsen, L. C.

    2017-01-01

    Permissible exposure limits (PELs) for short-term and career astronaut exposures to space radiation have been set and approved by NASA with the goal of protecting astronauts against health risks associated with ionizing radiation exposure. Short term PELs are intended to prevent clinically significant deterministic health effects, including performance decrements, which could threaten astronaut health and jeopardize mission success. Career PELs are implemented to control late occurring health effects, including a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) from cancer, and dose limits are used to prevent cardiovascular and central nervous system diseases. For radiation protection, meeting the cancer PEL is currently the design driver for galactic cosmic ray and solar particle event shielding, mission duration, and crew certification (e.g., 1-year ISS missions). The risk of cancer development is the largest known long-term health consequence following radiation exposure, and current estimates for long-term health risks due to cardiovascular diseases are approximately 30% to 40% of the cancer risk for exposures above an estimated threshold (Deep Space one-year and Mars missions). Large uncertainties currently exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation exposure. Improved understanding through radiobiology and physics research allows increased accuracy in risk estimation and is essential for ensuring astronaut health as well as for controlling mission costs, optimization of mission operations, vehicle design, and countermeasure assessment. We will review the Space Radiation Program Element's research strategies to increase accuracy in risk models and to inform development and validation of the permissible exposure limits.

  6. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  7. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  8. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  9. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  10. Perspectives and strategies of alternative methods used in the risk assessment of personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quantin, P; Thélu, A; Catoire, S; Ficheux, H

    2015-11-01

    Risk assessment for personal care products requires the use of alternative methods since animal testing is now totally banned. Some of these methods are effective and have been validated by the "European Union Reference Laboratory for alternatives to animal testing"; but there is still a need for development and implementation of methods for specific endpoints. In this review, we have focused on dermal risk assessment because it is the prime route of absorption and main target organ for personal care products. Within this field, various areas must be assessed: irritation, sensitisation and toxicokinetic. Personal care product behaviour after use by the consumer and potential effects on the environment are also discussed. The purpose of this review is to show evolution and the prospects of alternative methods for safety dermal assessment. Assessment strategies must be adapted to the different chemical classes of substances studied but also to the way in which they are used. Finally, experimental and theoretical technical parameters that may impact on measured effects have been identified and discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  11. Communicating cardiovascular disease risk: an interview study of General Practitioners' use of absolute risk within tailored communication strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; McKinn, Shannon; Irwig, Les; Doust, Jenny; Glasziou, Paul; McCaffery, Kirsten

    2014-05-29

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention guidelines encourage assessment of absolute CVD risk - the probability of a CVD event within a fixed time period, based on the most predictive risk factors. However, few General Practitioners (GPs) use absolute CVD risk consistently, and communication difficulties have been identified as a barrier to changing practice. This study aimed to explore GPs' descriptions of their CVD risk communication strategies, including the role of absolute risk. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 25 GPs in New South Wales, Australia. Transcribed audio-recordings were thematically coded, using the Framework Analysis method to ensure rigour. GPs used absolute CVD risk within three different communication strategies: 'positive', 'scare tactic', and 'indirect'. A 'positive' strategy, which aimed to reassure and motivate, was used for patients with low risk, determination to change lifestyle, and some concern about CVD risk. Absolute risk was used to show how they could reduce risk. A 'scare tactic' strategy was used for patients with high risk, lack of motivation, and a dismissive attitude. Absolute risk was used to 'scare' them into taking action. An 'indirect' strategy, where CVD risk was not the main focus, was used for patients with low risk but some lifestyle risk factors, high anxiety, high resistance to change, or difficulty understanding probabilities. Non-quantitative absolute risk formats were found to be helpful in these situations. This study demonstrated how GPs use three different communication strategies to address the issue of CVD risk, depending on their perception of patient risk, motivation and anxiety. Absolute risk played a different role within each strategy. Providing GPs with alternative ways of explaining absolute risk, in order to achieve different communication aims, may improve their use of absolute CVD risk assessment in practice.

  12. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  13. Preventive risk assessment in forensic child and youth care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assink, M.

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessment is central to the work of forensic mental health professionals, since it serves as a guide for prevention and intervention strategies. For effective risk assessment, knowledge on risk factors and their effects as well as the availability of valid and reliable instruments for risk

  14. Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

  15. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy: Report from a workshop ''developing a framework for assessing the risk from allergenic foods"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madsen, C.B.; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.; Gendel, S.M.; Houben, G.F.; Hourihane, J.OB.; Mackie, A.; Mills, E.N.C.; Nørhede, P.; Taylor, S.L.; Crevel, R.W.R.

    2009-01-01

    A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods, to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move

  16. Risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. Current approaches and future strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Larsen, John Christian; Meyer, Otto A.

    2010-01-01

    The risk assessment of pesticide residues in food is based on toxicological evaluation of the single compounds and no internationally accepted procedure exists for evaluation of cumulative exposure to multiple residues of pesticides in crops, except for a few groups of pesticides sharing a group...... several approaches are available for the risk assessment of mixtures of pesticides. However, no single simple approach is available to judge upon potential interactions at the low doses that humans are exposed to from pesticide residues in food. In these cases, PBTK models could be useful as tools...... to assess combined tissue doses and to help predict potential interactions including thresholds for such effects. This would improve the quality of the risk assessment....

  17. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  18. Mechanism-based risk assessment strategy for drug-induced cholestasis using the transcriptional benchmark dose derived by toxicogenomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawamoto, Taisuke; Ito, Yuichi; Morita, Osamu; Honda, Hiroshi

    2017-01-01

    Cholestasis is one of the major causes of drug-induced liver injury (DILI), which can result in withdrawal of approved drugs from the market. Early identification of cholestatic drugs is difficult due to the complex mechanisms involved. In order to develop a strategy for mechanism-based risk assessment of cholestatic drugs, we analyzed gene expression data obtained from the livers of rats that had been orally administered with 12 known cholestatic compounds repeatedly for 28 days at three dose levels. Qualitative analyses were performed using two statistical approaches (hierarchical clustering and principle component analysis), in addition to pathway analysis. The transcriptional benchmark dose (tBMD) and tBMD 95% lower limit (tBMDL) were used for quantitative analyses, which revealed three compound sub-groups that produced different types of differential gene expression; these groups of genes were mainly involved in inflammation, cholesterol biosynthesis, and oxidative stress. Furthermore, the tBMDL values for each test compound were in good agreement with the relevant no observed adverse effect level. These results indicate that our novel strategy for drug safety evaluation using mechanism-based classification and tBMDL would facilitate the application of toxicogenomics for risk assessment of cholestatic DILI.

  19. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  20. Alternative Testing Strategies for Nanomaterials: State of the Science and Considerations for Risk Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shatkin, J A; Ong, K J

    2016-08-01

    The rapid growth of the nanotechnology industry has warranted equal progress in the nanotoxicology and risk assessment fields. In vivo models have traditionally been used to determine human and environmental risk for chemicals; however, the use of these tests has limitations, and there are global appeals to develop reliable alternatives to animal testing. Many have investigated the use of alternative (nonanimal) testing methods and strategies have quickly developed and resulted in the generation of large toxicological data sets for numerous nanomaterials (NMs). Due to the novel physicochemical properties of NMs that are related to surface characteristics, the approach toward toxicity test development has distinct considerations from traditional chemicals, bringing new requirements for adapting these approaches for NMs. The methodical development of strategies that combine multiple alternative tests can be useful for predictive NM risk assessment and help screening-level decision making. This article provides an overview of the main developments in alternative methods and strategies for reducing uncertainty in NM risk assessment, including advantages and disadvantages of in vitro, ex vivo, and in silico methods, and examples of existing comprehensive strategies. In addition, knowledge gaps are identified toward improvements for experimental and strategy design, specifically highlighting the need to represent realistic exposure scenarios and to consider NM-specific concerns such as characterization, assay interferences, and standardization. Overall, this article aims to improve the reliability and utility of alternative testing methods and strategies for risk assessment of manufactured NMs. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Cattle farmers’ perceptions of risk and risk management strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bishu, Kinfe G.; O'Reilly, Seamus; Lahiff, Edward

    2018-01-01

    This study analyzes cattle farmers’ perceptions of risk and risk management strategies in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia. We use survey data from a sample of 356 farmers based on multistage random sampling. Factor analysis is employed to classify scores of risk and management strategies, and multiple...... utilization were perceived as the most important strategies for managing risks. Livestock disease and labor shortage were perceived as less of a risk by farmers who adopted the practice of zero grazing compared to other farmers, pointing to the potential of this practice for risk reduction. We find strong...... evidence that farmers engage in multiple risk management practices in order to reduce losses from cattle morbidity and mortality. The results suggest that government strategies that aim at reducing farmers’ risk need to be tailored to specific farm and farmer characteristics. Findings from this study have...

  2. Approach and strategy for performing ecological risk assessments for the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Field Office Environmental Restoration Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, G.W. II; Redfearn, A.; White, R.K.; Shaw, R.A.

    1992-07-01

    This document is intended to supplement exiting US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guidance for ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites by providing guidance that is more specific and more tailored to US Department of Energy sites than the guidance available from the EPA. However, it is a conceptual strategy document and does not include specific guidance on data, assumptions, and models. That detailed guidance is under development and will be presented in subsequent documents. Ecological risk assessments are equal to human health risk assessments in regulatory importance and can use many of the same data and some of the same estimation methods. However, they also have peculiar data needs and methods. Ecological risk assessments begin with an initial scoping phase, termed hazard definition, that characterizes the sources, the potentially environment, and the assessment endpoints. In the subsequent measurement and estimation phase, in which data are obtained concerning source of the endpoint biota to the contaminants and the effects of those exposures, and assumptions and models are used to relate the data to the desired exposure and effects parameters. Finally, in an integration phase, termed risk characterization, the various exposure and effects estimates are combined to infer the existence, cause, magnitude, and extent of effects of contaminants on the ecological endpoints. This phase is much more complicated for ecological risk assessments than for human health assessments because more types of data are available. Ecological risk assessments estimate effects using laboratory toxicity test results, like human health assessments, but also use results of ambient toxicity tests and biological surveys

  3. Multi-Drug Resistance Transporters and a Mechanism-Based Strategy for Assessing Risks of Pesticide Combinations to Honey Bees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guseman, Alex J; Miller, Kaliah; Kunkle, Grace; Dively, Galen P; Pettis, Jeffrey S; Evans, Jay D; vanEngelsdorp, Dennis; Hawthorne, David J

    2016-01-01

    Annual losses of honey bee colonies remain high and pesticide exposure is one possible cause. Dangerous combinations of pesticides, plant-produced compounds and antibiotics added to hives may cause or contribute to losses, but it is very difficult to test the many combinations of those compounds that bees encounter. We propose a mechanism-based strategy for simplifying the assessment of combinations of compounds, focusing here on compounds that interact with xenobiotic handling ABC transporters. We evaluate the use of ivermectin as a model substrate for these transporters. Compounds that increase sensitivity of bees to ivermectin may be inhibiting key transporters. We show that several compounds commonly encountered by honey bees (fumagillin, Pristine, quercetin) significantly increased honey bee mortality due to ivermectin and significantly reduced the LC50 of ivermectin suggesting that they may interfere with transporter function. These inhibitors also significantly increased honey bees sensitivity to the neonicotinoid insecticide acetamiprid. This mechanism-based strategy may dramatically reduce the number of tests needed to assess the possibility of adverse combinations among pesticides. We also demonstrate an in vivo transporter assay that provides physical evidence of transporter inhibition by tracking the dynamics of a fluorescent substrate of these transporters (Rhodamine B) in bee tissues. Significantly more Rhodamine B remains in the head and hemolymph of bees pretreated with higher concentrations of the transporter inhibitor verapamil. Mechanism-based strategies for simplifying the assessment of adverse chemical interactions such as described here could improve our ability to identify those combinations that pose significantly greater risk to bees and perhaps improve the risk assessment protocols for honey bees and similar sensitive species.

  4. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  5. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

  6. Assessment of uncertainties in severe accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Catton, I.; Dhir, V.K.; Okrent, D.

    1990-01-01

    Recent progress on the development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as a tool for qualifying nuclear reactor safety and on research devoted to severe accident phenomena has made severe accident management an achievable goal. Severe accident management strategies may involve operational changes, modification and/or addition of hardware, and institutional changes. In order to achieve the goal of managing severe accidents, a method for assessment of strategies must be developed which integrates PRA methodology and our current knowledge concerning severe accident phenomena, including uncertainty. The research project presented in this paper is aimed at delineating uncertainties in severe accident progression and their impact on severe accident management strategies

  7. Risk mitigation strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goede, A.P.H.; Bongers, W.A.; Elzendoorn, B.S.Q.; Graswinckel, M.F.; Baar, M.R. de

    2010-01-01

    A basic requirement for ITER equipment to meet is a high level of reliability, because ITER operation time is precious and radioactive operation leaves limited scope for repair. In order to reduce the risk of failure during ITER operation an effective risk mitigation strategy is necessary. This paper presents such strategy for the ITER electron cyclotron upper port launcher (ECUPL). A preliminary ECUPL risk analysis identifies possible failure modes. A probabilistic risk assessment quantifies the risk of failure using a 4 x 4 impact-likelihood matrix. Impact is quantified through technical, cost and schedule elements. Likelihood depends on the risk mitigation strategy adopted. A cost benefit analysis determines the most cost effective risk mitigation strategy. An essential element in risk mitigation is the testing of equipment prior to installation on the ITER machine. This paper argues the need for low- and highpower millimetre wave tests carried out on the fully assembled ECUPL. It presents a conceptual design for a dedicated on-site test bed that can handle 2 of 8 microwave beams at 2 MW long pulse operation.

  8. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  9. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  10. House of risk approach for assessing supply chain risk management strategies: A case study in Crumb Rubber Company Ltd

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Immawan Taufiq

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk is an uncertain and can have both negative and positive impacts. If the risks have a negative impact then a company will incur losses. CRUMB RUBBER COMPANY LTD is one of crumb rubber company in West Kalimantan. The length of the supply chain contained in CRUMB RUBBER COMPANY LTD and the high dependence on suppliers leads to vulnerability. So the purpose of this research is to identify the risk and determine the priority of source of risk along with the priority of handling it on CRUMB RUBBER COMPANY LTD supply chain with House of Risk approach. House of risk approach consists of two phases. Phase 1 is used to determine the dominant risk agent and phase 2 determines the effective action to deal with the dominant risk agent. From the research results, there are 19 risk events and 29 risk agents identified. The result of house of risk in phase 1 is known that 13 of 28 risk agents are dominant risk agent. Then the priority handling strategy in house of risk in phase 2, in this phase obtained 18 priority risk handling strategies.

  11. Assessment of the effectiveness of flood adaptation strategies for HCMC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasage, R.; Veldkamp, T. I. E.; de Moel, H.; Van, T. C.; Phi, H. L.; Vellinga, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2014-06-01

    Coastal cities are vulnerable to flooding, and flood risk to coastal cities will increase due to sea-level rise. Moreover, Asian cities in particular are subject to considerable population growth and associated urban developments, increasing this risk even more. Empirical data on vulnerability and the cost and benefits of flood risk reduction measures are therefore paramount for sustainable development of these cities. This paper presents an approach to explore the impacts of sea-level rise and socio-economic developments on flood risk for the flood-prone District 4 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and to develop and evaluate the effects of different adaptation strategies (new levees, dry- and wet proofing of buildings and elevating roads and buildings). A flood damage model was developed to simulate current and future flood risk using the results from a household survey to establish stage-damage curves for residential buildings. The model has been used to assess the effects of several participatory developed adaptation strategies to reduce flood risk, expressed in expected annual damage (EAD). Adaptation strategies were evaluated assuming combinations of both sea-level scenarios and land-use scenarios. Together with information on costs of these strategies, we calculated the benefit-cost ratio and net present value for the adaptation strategies until 2100, taking into account depreciation rates of 2.5% and 5%. The results of this modelling study indicate that the current flood risk in District 4 is USD 0.31 million per year, increasing up to USD 0.78 million per year in 2100. The net present value and benefit-cost ratios using a discount rate of 5 % range from USD -107 to -1.5 million, and from 0.086 to 0.796 for the different strategies. Using a discount rate of 2.5% leads to an increase in both net present value and benefit-cost ratio. The adaptation strategies wet-proofing and dry-proofing generate the best results using these economic indicators. The information

  12. Improving Fall Risk Factor Identification and Documentation of Risk Reduction Strategies by Rehabilitation Therapists through Continuing Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnes, Michele J.

    2011-01-01

    This static group comparison study determined that an educational intervention was effective in increasing fall risk factor assessment, documentation of fall risk factors, and strategies devised to reduce fall risk factors by rehabilitation therapists for their older adult outpatients in clinics. Results showed that experimental group identified…

  13. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  14. Risk management strategy to increase the safety of workers in the nanomaterials industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ling, Min-Pei, E-mail: lingmp@mail.cmu.edu.tw [Department of Health Risk Management, China Medical University, Taichung 40402, Taiwan, ROC (China); Lin, Wei-Chao; Liu, Chia-Chyuan [Department of Cosmetic Science, Chia Nan University of Pharmacy and Science, Tainan 71710, Taiwan, ROC (China); Huang, Yi-Shiao; Chueh, Miao-Ju [Industrial Safety and Health Association of the ROC, Taipei 11670, Taiwan, ROC (China); Shih, Tung-Sheng [Institute of Occupational Safety and Health, Council of Labor Affairs, Taipei 22143, Taiwan, ROC (China)

    2012-08-30

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer On-site assessment of nanomaterials using physiochemical and cytotoxic analysis can help identify risks for each nanomaterials manufacturing plant. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The risk of the nanomaterials manufacturing plants can be divided into three levels based on exposure routes (tier 1), aspect identification (tier 2), and toxicological screening (tier 3). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer According to the different risk levels, the precautionary risk management (PRM) such as technology control, engineering control, and personal protective equipment were applied. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The PRM strategy can be effectively reduced workers risks for nanomaterial industries. - Abstract: In recent years, many engineered nanomaterials (NMs) have been produced, but increasing research has revealed that these may have toxicities far greater than conventional materials and cause significant adverse health effects. At present, there is insufficient data to determine the permissible concentrations of NMs in the workplace. There is also a lack of toxicity data and environmental monitoring results relating to complete health risk assessment. In view of this, we believe that workers in the NMs industry should be provided with simple and practical risk management strategy to ensure occupational health and safety. In this study, we developed a risk management strategy based on the precautionary risk management (PRM). The risk of the engineered NMs manufacturing plants can be divided into three levels based on aspect identification, solubility tests, dermal absorption, and cytotoxic analyses. The risk management strategies include aspects relating to technology control, engineering control, personal protective equipment, and monitoring of the working environment for each level. Here we report the first case in which a simple and practical risk management strategy applying in specific engineered NMs manufacturing plants. We are

  15. Risk management strategy to increase the safety of workers in the nanomaterials industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ling, Min-Pei; Lin, Wei-Chao; Liu, Chia-Chyuan; Huang, Yi-Shiao; Chueh, Miao-Ju; Shih, Tung-Sheng

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► On-site assessment of nanomaterials using physiochemical and cytotoxic analysis can help identify risks for each nanomaterials manufacturing plant. ► The risk of the nanomaterials manufacturing plants can be divided into three levels based on exposure routes (tier 1), aspect identification (tier 2), and toxicological screening (tier 3). ► According to the different risk levels, the precautionary risk management (PRM) such as technology control, engineering control, and personal protective equipment were applied. ► The PRM strategy can be effectively reduced workers risks for nanomaterial industries. - Abstract: In recent years, many engineered nanomaterials (NMs) have been produced, but increasing research has revealed that these may have toxicities far greater than conventional materials and cause significant adverse health effects. At present, there is insufficient data to determine the permissible concentrations of NMs in the workplace. There is also a lack of toxicity data and environmental monitoring results relating to complete health risk assessment. In view of this, we believe that workers in the NMs industry should be provided with simple and practical risk management strategy to ensure occupational health and safety. In this study, we developed a risk management strategy based on the precautionary risk management (PRM). The risk of the engineered NMs manufacturing plants can be divided into three levels based on aspect identification, solubility tests, dermal absorption, and cytotoxic analyses. The risk management strategies include aspects relating to technology control, engineering control, personal protective equipment, and monitoring of the working environment for each level. Here we report the first case in which a simple and practical risk management strategy applying in specific engineered NMs manufacturing plants. We are confident that our risk management strategy can be effectively reduced engineered NM industries risks for

  16. Ethical aspects of the assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    When technology assessment goes over into technology politics, then questions arise which can only be answered in an ethical way. Questions like, which risk strategy has to be the basis for decision-making, and is a decision for or against the development, introduction or maintenance of a certain technology to be based at all on risk assessments? The author considers pure consequentialistic ethics the most plausible option, and does not see a basic difference in a risk-benefit analysis and ethical technology assessment. (DG) [de

  17. Parenting stress, coping strategies and risk assessment in mothers from at-risk families assisted by Child and Family Protection Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Pérez Padilla

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study parenting stress and coping strategies in a sample of 109 mothers from at-risk families were analyzed. Results obtained show over half of these women experienced clinical levels of parenting stress, and problem focused coping strategies were the most commonly used. Moreover, the main characteristics of these families and their trajectories in Child and Family Protection Services were correlated with parenting stress and coping strategies. The global valuation of family risk informed by professionals was significantly related to parenting stress.

  18. Validating the Octave Allegro Information Systems Risk Assessment Methodology: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, Corland G.

    2014-01-01

    An information system (IS) risk assessment is an important part of any successful security management strategy. Risk assessments help organizations to identify mission-critical IS assets and prioritize risk mitigation efforts. Many risk assessment methodologies, however, are complex and can only be completed successfully by highly qualified and…

  19. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  20. Allergenicity assessment strategy for novel food proteins and protein sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhoeckx, Kitty; Broekman, Henrike; Knulst, André; Houben, Geert

    2016-08-01

    To solve the future food insecurity problem, alternative and sustainable protein sources (e.g. insects, rapeseed, fava bean and algae) are now being explored for the production of food and feed. To approve these novel protein sources for future food a comprehensive risk assessment is needed according to the European food legislation. Allergenicity risk assessment might pose some major difficulties, since detailed guidance on how to assess the allergenic potential of novel foods is not available. At present, the approach relies mostly on the guidance of allergenicity assessment for genetically modified (GM) plant foods. The most recent one was proposed by EFSA (2010 and 2011); "weight-of-evidence approach". However this guidance is difficult to interpret, not completely applicable or validated for novel foods and therefore needs some adjustments. In this paper we propose a conceptual strategy which is based on the "weight-of-evidence approach" for food derived from GM plants and other strategies that were previously published in the literature. This strategy will give more guidance on how to assess the allergenicity of novel food proteins and protein sources. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

    2018-03-01

    The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

  2. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  3. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  4. Assessment of the effectiveness of participatory developed adaptation strategies for HCMC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasage, R.; Veldkamp, T. I. E.; de Moel, H.; Van, T. C.; Phi, H. L.; Vellinga, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2014-01-01

    Coastal cities are vulnerable to flooding, and flood risk to coastal cities will increase due to sea-level rise. Moreover, especially Asian cities are subject to considerable population growth and associated urban developments, increasing this risk even more. Empirical data on vulnerability and the cost and benefits of flood risk reducing measures are therefore paramount for sustainable development of these cities. This paper presents an approach to explore the impacts of sea level rise and socio-economic developments on flood risk for the flood prone District 4 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and to develop and evaluate the effects of different adaptation strategies (new levees, dry- and wet flood proofing of buildings). A flood damage model was developed to simulate current and future flood risk using the results from a household survey to establish stage-damage curves for residential buildings. the model has been used to assess the effects of several participatory developed adaptation strategies to reduce flood risk, expressed in Expected Annual Damage (EAD). Adaptation strategies were evaluated assuming combinations of both sea level scenarios and land use scenarios. Together with information on costs of these strategies, we calculated the benefit-cost ratio and net present value for the adaptation strategies until 2100, taking into account depreciation rates of 2.5% and 5%. The results of this modeling study indicate that the current flood risk in District 4 is 0.31 million USD yr-1, increasing up to 0.78 million USD yr-1 in 2100. The net present value and benefit-cost ratios using a discount rate of 5% range from USD -107 to -1.5 million, and from 0.086 to 0.796 for the different strategies. Using a discount rate of 2.5% leads to an increase in both net present value and benefit cost ratio. The adaptation strategies wet proofing and dry proofing generate the best results using these economic indicators. The information on different strategies will be used by

  5. Risk assessment of safety violations for coal mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Megan Orsulaka; Vladislav Kecojevicb; Larry Graysona; Antonio Nietoa [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States). Dept of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2010-09-15

    This article presents an application of a risk assessment approach in characterising the risks associated with safety violations in underground bituminous mines in Pennsylvania using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) citation database. The MSHA database on citations provides an opportunity to assess risks in mines through scrutiny of violations of mandatory safety standards. In this study, quantitative risk assessment is performed, which allows determination of the frequency of occurrence of safety violations (through associated citations) as well as the consequences of them in terms of penalty assessments. Focus is on establishing risk matrices on citation experiences of mines, which can give early indication of emerging potentially serious problems. The resulting frequency, consequence and risk rankings present valuable tools for prioritising resource allocations, determining control strategies, and could potentially contribute to more proactive prevention of incidents and injuries.

  6. Excipient Usage Technical Risk Assessment for Generic Solid Dose Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajay Babu Pazhayattil

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an assessment methodology for solid dose generic small molecule drug products. It addresses the ‘usage of the excipient’ portion of the trinomial by utilizing the systematic approach of Risk Identification, Risk Analysis and Risk Evaluation as per ICH Q9 Quality Risk Management outlined for developing risk control strategies. The assessment and maintenance of excipient risk profile is essential to minimize any potential risk associated to excipients impacting patients.

  7. Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising

  8. The efficiency of asset management strategies to reduce urban flood risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Veldhuis, J A E; Clemens, F H L R

    2011-01-01

    In this study, three asset management strategies were compared with respect to their efficiency to reduce flood risk. Data from call centres at two municipalities were used to quantify urban flood risks associated with three causes of urban flooding: gully pot blockage, sewer pipe blockage and sewer overloading. The efficiency of three flood reduction strategies was assessed based on their effect on the causes contributing to flood risk. The sensitivity of the results to uncertainty in the data source, citizens' calls, was analysed through incorporation of uncertainty ranges taken from customer complaint literature. Based on the available data it could be shown that increasing gully pot blockage is the most efficient action to reduce flood risk, given data uncertainty. If differences between cause incidences are large, as in the presented case study, call data are sufficient to decide how flood risk can be most efficiently reduced. According to the results of this analysis, enlargement of sewer pipes is not an efficient strategy to reduce flood risk, because flood risk associated with sewer overloading is small compared to other failure mechanisms.

  9. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, John W.

    2011-01-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

  10. Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John W. Collins

    2011-09-01

    Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

  11. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  12. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

  13. Biological Risks to Public Health: Lessons from an International Conference to Inform the Development of National Risk Communication Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickmann, Petra; Bhatiasevi, Aphaluck; Chaib, Fadela; Baggio, Ombretta; Banluta, Christina; Hollenweger, Lilian; Maaroufi, Abderrahmane

    Biological risk management in public health focuses on the impact of outbreaks on health, the economy, and other systems and on ensuring biosafety and biosecurity. To address this broad range of risks, the International Health Regulations (IHR, 2005) request that all member states build defined core capacities, risk communication being one of them. While there is existing guidance on the communication process and on what health authorities need to consider to design risk communication strategies that meet the requirements on a governance level, little has been done on implementation because of a number of factors, including lack of resources (human, financial, and others) and systems to support effective and consistent capacity for risk communication. The international conference on "Risk communication strategies before, during and after public health emergencies" provided a platform to present current strategies, facilitate learning from recent outbreaks of infectious diseases, and discuss recommendations to inform risk communication strategy development. The discussion concluded with 4 key areas for improvement in risk communication: consider communication as a multidimensional process in risk communication, broaden the biomedical paradigm by integrating social science intelligence into epidemiologic risk assessments, strengthen multisectoral collaboration including with local organizations, and spearhead changes in organizations for better risk communication governance. National strategies should design risk communication to be proactive, participatory, and multisectoral, facilitating the connection between sectors and strengthening collaboration.

  14. Climate change, variability and extreme events : risk assessment and management strategies in a Peach cultivated area in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Missere, Daniele; Menenti, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Climate change in Mediterranean area is likely to reduce precipitation amounts and to increase temperature thus affecting the timing of development stages and the productivity of crops. Further, extreme weather events are expected to increase in the future leading to significant increase in agricultural risk. Some strategies for effectively managing risks and adapting to climate change involve adjustments to irrigation management and use of different varieties. We quantified the risk on Peach production in an irrigated area of "Emilia Romagna" region ( Italy) taking into account the impact on crop yield due to climate change and variability and to extreme weather events as well as the ability of the agricultural system to modulate this impact (adaptive capacity) through changes in water and crop management. We have focused on climatic events causing insufficient water supply to crops, while taking into account the effect of climate on the duration and timing of phenological stages. Further, extreme maximum and minimum temperature events causing significant reduction of crop yield have been considered using phase-specific critical temperatures. In our study risk was assessed as the product of the probability of a damaging event (hazard), such as drought or extreme temperatures, and the estimated impact of such an event (vulnerability). To estimate vulnerability we took into account the possible options to reduce risk, by combining estimates of the sensitivity of the system (negative impact on crop yield) and its adaptive capacity. The latter was evaluated as the relative improvement due to alternate management options: the use of alternate varieties or the changes in irrigation management. Vulnerability was quantified using cultivar-specific thermal and hydrologic requirements of a set of cultivars determined by experimental data and from scientific literature. Critical temperatures determining a certain reduction of crop yield have been estimated and used to assess

  15. Approach and Strategy for Performing Ecological Risk Assessments for the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Field Office Environmental Restoration Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter, G.W. II

    1992-01-01

    This technical memorandum provides guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments (ERAs) on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). This work was performed under Work Breakdown Structure 1.4.12.2.3.04.07.02 (Activity Data Sheet 8304) and meets an Environmental Restoration Program milestone for FY 95. The strategy discussed in this report is consistent with the overall strategy for site management and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) compliance developed for the ORR and relevant U.S. Environmental Protection Agency documents and guidance. The general approach and strategy presented herein was developed for the ORR, but it could be applicable to other complex CERCLA sites that possess significant ecological resources.

  16. Risk assessment for biodiversity conservation planning in Pacific Northwest forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becky K. Kerns; Alan Ager

    2007-01-01

    Risk assessment can provide a robust strategy for landscape-scale planning challenges associated with species conservation and habitat protection in Pacific Northwest forests. We provide an overview of quantitative and probabilistic ecological risk assessment with focus on the application of approaches and influences from the actuarial, financial, and technical...

  17. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  18. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  19. Mitigating Corporate Water Risk: Financial Market Tools and Supply Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy M. Larson

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available A decision framework for business water-risk response is proposed that considers financial instruments and supply management strategies. Based on available and emergent programmes, companies in the agricultural, commodities, and energy sectors may choose to hedge against financial risks by purchasing futures contracts or insurance products. These strategies address financial impacts such as revenue protection due to scarcity and disruption of direct operations or in the supply chain, but they do not directly serve to maintain available supplies to continue production. In contrast, companies can undertake actions in the watershed to enhance supply reliability and/or they can reduce demand to mitigate risk. Intermediate strategies such as purchasing of water rights or water trading involving financial transactions change the allocation of water but do not reduce overall watershed demand or increase water supply. The financial services industry is playing an increasingly important role, by considering how water risks impact decision making on corporate growth and market valuation, corporate creditworthiness, and bond rating. Risk assessment informed by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR measures is described, and the role of the financial services industry is characterised. A corporate decision framework is discussed in the context of water resources management strategies under complex uncertainties.

  20. Assessment of Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies in Oncology: Summary of the Oncology Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frame, James N.; Jacobson, Joseph O.; Vogel, Wendy H.; Griffith, Niesha; Wariabharaj, Darshan; Garg, Rekha; Zon, Robin; Stephens, Cyntha L.; Bialecki, Alison M.; Bruinooge, Suanna S.; Allen, Steven L.

    2013-01-01

    To address oncology community stakeholder concerns regarding implementation of the Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) program, ASCO sponsored a workshop to gather REMS experiences from representatives of professional societies, patient organizations, pharmaceutical companies, and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Stakeholder presentations and topical panel discussions addressed REMS program development, implementation processes, and practice experiences, as well as oncology drug safety processes. A draft REMS decision tool prepared by the ASCO REMS Steering Committee was presented for group discussion with facilitated, goal-oriented feedback. The workshop identified several unintended consequences resulting from current oncology REMS: (1) the release of personal health information to drug sponsors as a condition for gaining access to a needed drug; (2) risk information that is not tailored—and therefore not accessible—to all literacy levels; (3) exclusive focus on drug risk, thereby affecting patient-provider treatment discussion; (4) REMS elements that do not consider existing, widely practiced oncology safety standards, professional training, and experience; and (5) administrative burdens that divert the health care team from direct patient care activities and, in some cases, could limit patient access to important therapies. Increased provider and professional society participation should form the basis of ongoing and future REMS standardization discussions with the FDA to work toward overall improvement of risk communication. PMID:23814522

  1. Risk Assessment of Heating, Ventilating, and Air-Conditioning Strategies in Low-Load Homes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poerschke, Andrew [IBACOS, Inc., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2016-02-01

    These simulations enabled IBACOS to identify which strategies work best for particular climate zones or house geometries and to propose solutions that homebuilders can implement to reduce the risk of occupant discomfort in individual rooms.

  2. Cost benefit and risk assessment for selected tank waste process testing alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gasper, K.A.

    1995-01-01

    The US Department of Energy has established the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program to safely manage wastes currently stored in underground tank at the Hanford Site. A TWRS testing and development strategy was recently developed to define long-range TWRS testing plans. The testing and development strategy considered four alternatives. The primary variable in the alternatives is the level of pilot-scale testing involving actual waste. This study evaluates the cost benefit and risks associated with the four alternatives. Four types of risk were evaluated: programmatic schedule risk, process mishap risk, worker risk, and public health risk. The structure of this report is as follows: Section 1 introduces the report subject; Section 2 describes the test strategy alternative evaluation; Section 3 describes the approach used in this study to assess risk and cost benefit; Section 4 describes the assessment methodologies for costs and risks; Section 5 describes the bases and assumptions used to estimate the costs and risks; Section 6 presents the detailed costs and risks; and Section 7 describes the results of the cost benefit analysis and presents conclusions

  3. Configuration Management Process Assessment Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Thad

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To propose a strategy for assessing the development and effectiveness of configuration management systems within Programs, Projects, and Design Activities performed by technical organizations and their supporting development contractors. Scope: Various entities CM Systems will be assessed dependent on Project Scope (DDT&E), Support Services and Acquisition Agreements. Approach: Model based structured against assessing organizations CM requirements including best practices maturity criteria. The model is tailored to the entity being assessed dependent on their CM system. The assessment approach provides objective feedback to Engineering and Project Management of the observed CM system maturity state versus the ideal state of the configuration management processes and outcomes(system). center dot Identifies strengths and risks versus audit gotcha's (findings/observations). center dot Used "recursively and iteratively" throughout program lifecycle at select points of need. (Typical assessments timing is Post PDR/Post CDR) center dot Ideal state criteria and maturity targets are reviewed with the assessed entity prior to an assessment (Tailoring) and is dependent on the assessed phase of the CM system. center dot Supports exit success criteria for Preliminary and Critical Design Reviews. center dot Gives a comprehensive CM system assessment which ultimately supports configuration verification activities.*

  4. WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  5. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rath, F. [University of Wisconsin Madison (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  6. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rath, F.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  7. WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  8. National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

    2017-12-01

    National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The

  9. Mud Pit Risk-Based Closure Strategy Report, Nevada Test Site, Nevada, Revision 0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brain Hoenes

    2004-08-01

    This report presents the findings of the human and ecological risk assessment for the NTS mud pits. The risk assessment utilizes data from 52 of the 270 NTS mud pits in conjunction with corroborative data from 87 other DOE mud pits associated with nuclear testing (at locations on the NTS, in the western United States, and Alaska) as well as relevant process knowledge. Based on the risk assessment findings, the report provides a strategy for further evaluation, characterization, and closure of all 270 NTS mud pit CASs using the Streamlined Approach for Environmental Restoration (SAFER).

  10. Data quality objectives for two risk assessments at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lane, N.K.; Clark, S.W.; Tranbarger, R.K.; Roeck, F.V.

    1996-01-01

    The opportunity for innovative thinking prevails at the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. Two projects, in particular, challenged risk assessment staff. They are: (1) a combined Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA)/Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) risk assessment, and (2) developing a risk assessment for a mixed-waste disposal facility. The combined CERCLA/RCRA risk assessment involved establishing data quality objectives (DQO) either to meet clean closure for a RCRA treatment, storage and/or disposal facility (TSD) or (if the former was not possible) to conform to goals established for industrial land use for Hanford Past-Practice Strategy (HPPS) sites. Radionuclide analysis was reduced by 60 percent through the DQO process

  11. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-04-15

    Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

  12. Risk assessment and clinical decision making for colorectal cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroy, Paul C; Caron, Sarah E; Sherman, Bonnie J; Heeren, Timothy C; Battaglia, Tracy A

    2015-10-01

    Shared decision making (SDM) related to test preference has been advocated as a potentially effective strategy for increasing adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet primary care providers (PCPs) are often reluctant to comply with patient preferences if they differ from their own. Risk stratification advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) provides a rational strategy for reconciling these differences. To assess the importance of risk stratification in PCP decision making related to test preference for average-risk patients and receptivity to use of an electronic risk assessment tool for ACN to facilitate SDM. Mixed methods, including qualitative key informant interviews and a cross-sectional survey. PCPs at an urban, academic safety-net institution. Screening preferences, factors influencing patient recommendations and receptivity to use of a risk stratification tool. Nine PCPs participated in interviews and 57 completed the survey. Despite an overwhelming preference for colonoscopy by 95% of respondents, patient risk (67%) and patient preferences (63%) were more influential in their decision making than patient comorbidities (31%; P decision making, yet few providers considered risk factors other than age for average-risk patients. Providers were receptive to the use of a risk assessment tool for ACN when recommending an appropriate screening test for select patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  14. Quantitative risk assessment: an emerging tool for emerging foodborne pathogens.

    OpenAIRE

    Lammerding, A. M.; Paoli, G. M.

    1997-01-01

    New challenges to the safety of the food supply require new strategies for evaluating and managing food safety risks. Changes in pathogens, food preparation, distribution, and consumption, and population immunity have the potential to adversely affect human health. Risk assessment offers a framework for predicting the impact of changes and trends on the provision of safe food. Risk assessment models facilitate the evaluation of active or passive changes in how foods are produced, processed, d...

  15. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  16. A comparison of risk assessments on Campylobacter in broiler meat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nauta, Maarten; Hill, Andy; Rosenquist, Hanne

    2009-01-01

    In recent years. several quantitative risk assessments for Campylobacter in broiler meat have been developed to support risk managers in controlling this pathogen. The models encompass some or all of the consecutive stages in the broiler meat production chain: primary production, industrial...... of slaughter, the prevalence is most likely to be either very low (95%). In evaluating control strategies, all models find a negligible effect of logistic slaughter, the separate processing of positive and negative flocks. Also, all risk assessments conclude that the most effective intervention measures aim...... processing, consumer food preparation,and the close-response relationship. The modelling approaches vary between the models, and this has supported the progress of risk assessment as a research discipline. The risk assessments are not only used to assess the human incidence of campylobacteriosis due...

  17. Risk Assessment Approaches for Carcinogenic Food Contaminants

    OpenAIRE

    Gillespie, Zoe; Pulido, Olga; Vavasour, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Health Canada has identified the need for a standardized department-wide approach for the risk assessment of carcinogens in foods (e.g., pesticides, food chemical contaminants, veterinary therapeutics). A standardized approach would better facilitate and inform risk management strategies for the control of human exposure to food sources of carcinogens. Within the post- market regulatory context, directly DNA-reactive carcinogens are of most concern because any exposure is theoretically assume...

  18. Evolution of risk assessment strategies for food and feed uses of stacked GM events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Catherine; Brune, Phil; McDonald, Justin; Nesbitt, Monique; Sauve, Alaina; Storck-Weyhermueller, Sabine

    2016-09-01

    Data requirements are not harmonized globally for the regulation of food and feed derived from stacked genetically modified (GM) events, produced by combining individual GM events through conventional breeding. The data required by some regulatory agencies have increased despite the absence of substantiated adverse effects to animals or humans from the consumption of GM crops. Data from studies conducted over a 15-year period for several stacked GM event maize (Zea mays L.) products (Bt11 ×  GA21, Bt11 ×  MIR604, MIR604 ×  GA21, Bt11 ×  MIR604 ×  GA21, Bt11 ×  MIR162 ×  GA21 and Bt11 ×  MIR604 ×  MIR162 ×  GA21), together with their component single events, are presented. These data provide evidence that no substantial changes in composition, protein expression or insert stability have occurred after combining the single events through conventional breeding. An alternative food and feed risk assessment strategy for stacked GM events is suggested based on a problem formulation approach that utilizes (i) the outcome of the single event risk assessments, and (ii) the potential for interactions in the stack, based on an understanding of the mode of action of the transgenes and their products. © 2016 The Authors. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology and The Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Assessing the oseltamivir-induced resistance risk and implications for influenza infection control strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsieh NH

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Nan-Hung Hsieh,1 Yi-Jun Lin,2 Ying-Fei Yang,2 Chung-Min Liao2 1Department of Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA; 2Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan Background: Oseltamivir-resistant mutants with higher drug resistance rates and low transmission fitness costs have not accounted for influenza (subtype viruses. Predicting the impacts of neuraminidase inhibitor therapy on infection rates and transmission of drug-resistant viral strains requires further investigation.Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess the potential risk of oseltamivir-induced resistance for influenza A (H1N1 and A (H3N2 viruses.Materials and methods: An immune-response-based virus dynamic model was used to best fit the oseltamivir-resistant A (H1N1 and A (H3N2 infection data. A probabilistic risk assessment model was developed by incorporating branching process-derived probability distribution of resistance to estimate oseltamivir-induced resistance risk.Results: Mutation rate and sensitive strain number were key determinants in assessing resistance risk. By increasing immune response, antiviral efficacy, and fitness cost, the spread of resistant strains for A (H1N1 and A (H3N2 were greatly decreased. Probability of resistance depends most strongly on the sensitive strain number described by a Poisson model. Risk of oseltamivir-induced resistance increased with increasing the mutation rate for A (H1N1 only. The ≥50% of resistance risk induced by A (H1N1 and A (H3N2 sensitive infected cells were 0.4 (95% CI: 0.28–0.43 and 0.95 (95% CI 0.93–0.99 at a mutation rate of 10−6, respectively. Antiviral drugs must be administrated within 1–1.5 days for A (H1N1 and 2–2.5 days for A (H3N2 virus infections to limit viral production.Conclusion: Probabilistic risk assessment of antiviral drug

  20. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  1. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  2. Cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit analyses of risk-based screening strategies for breast cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ester Vilaprinyo

    Full Text Available The one-size-fits-all paradigm in organized screening of breast cancer is shifting towards a personalized approach. The present study has two objectives: 1 To perform an economic evaluation and to assess the harm-benefit ratios of screening strategies that vary in their intensity and interval ages based on breast cancer risk; and 2 To estimate the gain in terms of cost and harm reductions using risk-based screening with respect to the usual practice. We used a probabilistic model and input data from Spanish population registries and screening programs, as well as from clinical studies, to estimate the benefit, harm, and costs over time of 2,624 screening strategies, uniform or risk-based. We defined four risk groups, low, moderate-low, moderate-high and high, based on breast density, family history of breast cancer and personal history of breast biopsy. The risk-based strategies were obtained combining the exam periodicity (annual, biennial, triennial and quinquennial, the starting ages (40, 45 and 50 years and the ending ages (69 and 74 years in the four risk groups. Incremental cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit ratios were used to select the optimal strategies. Compared to risk-based strategies, the uniform ones result in a much lower benefit for a specific cost. Reductions close to 10% in costs and higher than 20% in false-positive results and overdiagnosed cases were obtained for risk-based strategies. Optimal screening is characterized by quinquennial or triennial periodicities for the low or moderate risk-groups and annual periodicity for the high-risk group. Risk-based strategies can reduce harm and costs. It is necessary to develop accurate measures of individual risk and to work on how to implement risk-based screening strategies.

  3. Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2008-01-01

    Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the

  4. Cornerstones of the Austrian radon risk communication strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunte, A.; Ringer, W.

    2015-01-01

    On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW), the National Radon Centre of Austria developed the National Radon Risk Communication Strategy. The superior goal is the reduction of the radon exposure of Austrian citizens as well as the reduction of radon-related lung cancer deaths. Austria, like many other countries, follows the approach to raise awareness and to inform the public to achieve this goal. The presented strategy deals with the question of how radon protection issues can be communicated to the public, existing fears can be reduced and affected people can be motivated to take action (perform a radon test, if necessary, mitigate or install preventive measures in new buildings). The cornerstones of the National Radon Risk Communication Strategy can be summarized as follows: - Definition of communication goals - Identification and categorization of target groups - Development of specific key messages for each of the target groups - Determination of communication channels and assessment of their efficiency - Integration of the radon issue in education and training - Cooperation with relevant organizations and platforms. The communication objectives, target groups and communication paths (and their evaluation) will be discussed during the presentation in detail.

  5. Strategy utilized for assessing baseline risks to human health from K-65 and metal oxide residues stored at the Fernald Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harmon, J.E.; Janke, R.C.

    1995-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) site in southwestern Ohio. The 425-hectare site consists of a former 55-hectare Production Area, an adjacent Waste Storage Area and various support facilities. From 1952 until 1989, the FEMP processed uranium into metallic open-quotes feedclose quotes materials for other DOE facilities in the nation's defense program. In accordance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA), the FEMP site is currently listed on the National Priorities List (NPL). To facilitate an expeditious cleanup effort, environmental issues associated with site cleanup are being managed under five operable units. This paper summarizes the risk assessment strategy employed to determine baseline human health risks associated with K-65 and metal oxide residues currently stored in Operable Unit 4. The K-65 and metal oxide residues were generated during the 1950s as a result of the extraction of uranium from uranium-bearing ores and concentrates. These residues are currently stored within Operable Unit 4 in concrete silos. Silos I and 2 contain approximately 6,120 cubic meters [m 3 ] (8,005 cubic yards [yd 3 ]) of K-65 residues, while silos 3 contains approximately 3890 m 3 (5,080 yd 3 ) of cold metal oxides. These concrete silos are beyond their design life and require remedial action. The risk assessment conducted for Operable Unit 4 constitutes the first detailed human health risk assessment to be approved by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the CERCLA clean-up effort at the FEMP Site. This paper discusses the FEMP's use of a Risk Information Quality Objective process in concert with the traditional risk assessment approach to determine baseline risk to human health and the environment posed by Operable Unit 4. A summary of the baseline risks to human health is also presented

  6. How Confident can we be in Flood Risk Assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, B.

    2017-12-01

    Flood risk management should be based on risk analyses quantifying the risk and its reduction for different risk reduction strategies. However, validating risk estimates by comparing model simulations with past observations is hardly possible, since the assessment typically encompasses extreme events and their impacts that have not been observed before. Hence, risk analyses are strongly based on assumptions and expert judgement. This situation opens the door for cognitive biases, such as `illusion of certainty', `overconfidence' or `recency bias'. Such biases operate specifically in complex situations with many factors involved, when uncertainty is high and events are probabilistic, or when close learning feedback loops are missing - aspects that all apply to risk analyses. This contribution discusses how confident we can be in flood risk assessments, and reflects about more rigorous approaches towards their validation.

  7. A generalized Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) for urban drainage RTC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Grum, Morten

    2012-01-01

    An innovative generalized approach for integrated real time control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy tries to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii) the expe......An innovative generalized approach for integrated real time control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy tries to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii...... to reduce Combined Sewer Overflow loads and to optimize the flow discharged to the wastewater treatment plant. Also, the inclusion of forecasts and their uncertainty contributed to further improve the performance of drainage systems. The results of this paper will contribute to a wider usage of global RTC...

  8. Risk assessment for infectious disease and its impact on voluntary vaccination behavior in social networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukuda, Eriko; Kokubo, Satoshi; Tanimoto, Jun; Wang, Zhen; Hagishima, Aya; Ikegaya, Naoki

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We model a vaccination game from the standpoint of network reciprocity on 2 × 2 game. • We investigate the impacts of public information for infectious disease. • Effect of risk assessment based on public information depends on network structure. • Use of public information yields positive effect if vaccination cost is small. - Abstract: Achievement of the herd immunity is essential for preventing the periodic spreading of an infectious disease such as the flu. If vaccination is voluntary, as vaccination coverage approaches the critical level required for herd immunity, there is less incentive for individuals to be vaccinated; this results in an increase in the number of so-called “free-riders” who craftily avoid infection via the herd immunity and avoid paying any cost. We use a framework originating in evolutionary game theory to investigate this type of social dilemma with respect to epidemiology and the decision of whether to be vaccinated. For each individual in a population, the decision on vaccination is associated with how one assesses the risk of infection. In this study, we propose a new risk-assessment model in a vaccination game when an individual updates her strategy, she compares her own payoff to a net payoff obtained by averaging a collective payoff over individuals who adopt the same strategy as that of a randomly selected neighbor. In previous studies of vaccination games, when an individual updates her strategy, she typically compares her payoff to the payoff of a randomly selected neighbor, indicating that the risk for changing her strategy is largely based on the behavior of one other individual, i.e., this is an individual-based risk assessment. However, in our proposed model, risk assessment by any individual is based on the collective success of a strategy and not on the behavior of any one other individual. For strategy adaptation, each individual always takes a survey of the degree of success of a certain

  9. AN EVALUATION OF RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DAIRY FARMS

    OpenAIRE

    Bosch, Darrell J.; Johnson, Christian J.

    1992-01-01

    Variability in feed prices and crop yields are important sources of risk to dairy farmers. A simulation model of a representative dairy farm was used to evaluate crop insurance and hedging as risk management strategies. These strategies lowered expected net returns but also reduced risk. The preferred set of strategies at lower levels of risk aversion included hedging and crop insurance, although a base scenario in which no risk management strategies were employed was also efficient. The pref...

  10. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duenas-Espin, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Carles Contel, Joan; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M. H.; Lluch-Ariet, Magi; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastia; Schonenberg, Helen; Stoerk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

  11. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies

  12. Taking risk assessment and management to the next level - 59395

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, Jerel; Morton, Russel Lee; Castillo, Carlos; Dyer, George; Johnson, Natalie; McSwain, James T.; Kruskall, Gary Nick

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell into two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact

  13. Formalized search strategies for human risk contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, J.; Pedersen, O.M.

    1982-07-01

    For risk management, the results of a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) as well as the underlying assumptions can be used as references in a closed-loop risk control; and the analyses of operational experiences as a means of feedback. In this context, the need for explicit definition and documentation of the PRA coverage, including the search strategies applied, is discussed and aids are proposed such as plant description in terms of a formal abstraction hierarchy and use of cause-consequence-charts for the documentation of not only the results of PRA but also of its coverage. Typical human risk contributions are described on the basis of general plant design features relevant for risk and accident analysis. With this background, search strategies for human risk contributions are treated: Under the designation ''work analysis'', procedures for the analysis of familiar, well trained, planned tasks are proposed. Strategies for identifying human risk contributions outside this category are outlined. (author)

  14. Strategies for successful software development risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marija Boban

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, software is becoming a major part of enterprise business. Software development is activity connected with advanced technology and high level of knowledge. Risks on software development projects must be successfully mitigated to produce successful software systems. Lack of a defined approach to risk management is one of the common causes for project failures. To improve project chances for success, this work investigates common risk impact areas to perceive a foundation that can be used to define a common approach to software risk management. Based on typical risk impact areas on software development projects, we propose three risk management strategies suitable for a broad area of enterprises and software development projects with different amounts of connected risks. Proposed strategies define activities that should be performed for successful risk management, the one that will enable software development projects to perceive risks as soon as possible and to solve problems connected with risk materialization. We also propose a risk-based approach to software development planning and risk management as attempts to address and retire the highest impact risks as early as possible in the development process. Proposed strategies should improve risk management on software development projects and help create a successful software solution.

  15. Risk perception influences athletic pacing strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micklewright, Dominic; Parry, David; Robinson, Tracy; Deacon, Greg; Renfree, Andrew; St Clair Gibson, Alan; Matthews, William J

    2015-05-01

    The objective of this study is to examine risk taking and risk perception associations with perceived exertion, pacing, and performance in athletes. Two experiments were conducted in which risk perception was assessed using the domain-specific risk taking (DOSPERT) scale in 20 novice cyclists (experiment 1) and 32 experienced ultramarathon runners (experiment 2). In experiment 1, participants predicted their pace and then performed a 5-km maximum effort cycling time trial on a calibrated Kingcycle mounted bicycle. Split times and perceived exertion were recorded every kilometer. In experiment 2, each participant predicted their split times before running a 100-km ultramarathon. Split times and perceived exertion were recorded at seven checkpoints. In both experiments, higher and lower risk perception groups were created using median split of DOSPERT scores. In experiment 1, pace during the first kilometer was faster among lower risk perceivers compared with higher risk perceivers (t(18) = 2.0, P = 0.03) and faster among higher risk takers compared with lower risk takers (t(18) = 2.2, P = 0.02). Actual pace was slower than predicted pace during the first kilometer in both the higher risk perceivers (t(9) = -4.2, P = 0.001) and lower risk perceivers (t(9) = -1.8, P = 0.049). In experiment 2, pace during the first 36 km was faster among lower risk perceivers compared with higher risk perceivers (t(16) = 2.0, P = 0.03). Irrespective of risk perception group, actual pace was slower than predicted pace during the first 18 km (t(16) = 8.9, P risk perception groups. Initial pace is associated with an individual's perception of risk, with low perceptions of risk being associated with a faster starting pace. Large differences between predicted and actual pace suggest that the performance template lacks accuracy, perhaps indicating greater reliance on momentary pacing decisions rather than preplanned strategy.

  16. Qualitative risk assessment for 100-DR-1 source operable unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naiknimbalkar, N.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology), the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the US Department of Energy (DOE), signatories to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order have developed the Hanford site Past-Practice Strategy to emphasize initiating and completing waste site cleanups with a bias for action. This strategy relies, in part, upon the use of a qualitative risk assessment (QRA) to assist in decision-making. The QRA is performed using the Hanford Site Baseline Risk Assessment Methodology (HSBRAM) as guidance (DOE-RL 1993a). The results will be used, along with other considerations, to make a recommendation for or against an interim remedial measure (IRM) at each high-priority waste site. The objective of conducting IRMs at Hanford, is to achieve cleanup and reduce risk in the shortest time possible and in a cost effective manner

  17. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  18. Coping strategies and self-esteem in the high-risk offspring of bipolar parents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodday, Sarah M; Bentall, Richard; Jones, Steven; Weir, Arielle; Duffy, Anne

    2018-03-01

    This study investigated whether there were differences in coping strategies and self-esteem between offspring of parents with bipolar disorder (high-risk) and offspring of unaffected parents (control), and whether these psychological factors predicted the onset and recurrence of mood episodes. High-risk and control offspring were followed longitudinally as part of the Flourish Canadian high-risk bipolar offspring cohort study. Offspring were clinically assessed annually by a psychiatrist using semi-structured interviews and completed a measure of coping strategies and self-esteem. In high-risk offspring, avoidant coping strategies significantly increased the hazard of a new onset Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition twice revised mood episode or recurrence (hazard ratio: 1.89, p = 0.04), while higher self-esteem significantly decreased this hazard (hazard ratio: 2.50, p Self-esteem and avoidant coping significantly interacted with one another ( p self-esteem. A reduction of avoidant coping strategies in response to stress and improvement of self-esteem may be useful intervention targets for preventing the new onset or recurrence of a clinically significant mood disorder among individuals at high familial risk.

  19. Formalized Search Strategies for Human Risk Contributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jens; Pedersen, O. M.

    For risk management, the results of a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) as well as the underlying assumptions can be used as references in a closed-loop risk control; and the analyses of operational experiences as a means of feedback. In this context, the need for explicit definition...... risk contributions are described on the basis of general plant design features relevant for risk and accident analysis. With this background, search strategies for human risk contributions are treated: Under the designation "work analysis", procedures for the analysis of familiar, well trained, planned...... tasks are proposed. Strategies for identifying human risk contributions outside this category are outlined....

  20. Methodological guide for risk assessment and management of industrial sites contaminated with radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oudiz, A.; Brenot, J.; Cessac, B.; Charbonneau, P.; Maigne, J.P.; Santucci, P.

    2000-01-01

    At the request of the French ministries of health and environment, IPSN was asked to elaborate a methodological guide for risk assessment and management of industrial sites contaminated with radionuclides. This guide is devoted to local administration, technical organisms and more generally to all the relevant stakeholders involved with the choice of a rehabilitation strategy, according to the future use of the site. The methodology to be presented is designed to fit with the different types of 'risk governance', according to circumstances: - when an industrial site is relatively small, with rather restricted zones of contamination, and no specific social concern, management may rely essentially upon radiological expertise, using generic reference levels, - when the site is larger, with spread out contamination, risk assessment and management of the site may become more controversial, namely because uncertainties remain about the effective magnitude of the contamination and no low cost solution appears to exist in view of rehabilitation. In this case, an open procedure is required, which combines technical expertise and involvement of stakeholders, in view of improving the risk assessment process as well as trying to get a better understanding of the benefits and drawbacks of different rehabilitation strategies. The methodology consists of six main steps : - Initiating the process, Pre-diagnosis, Initial diagnosis, Simplified risk assessment, Detailed risk assessment, Decision aiding in view of letting the stakeholders defining the solution appropriate to the local context. The paper will present how the risk assessment and management process can be aportionated to the importance of the problem to be solved. As far as possible, simplified risk assessment should provide information allowing the definition of the appropriate strategy. In this case, stakeholders involvement is mainly devoted to determine: - whether the site can be affected to a given use without

  1. Screening-Level Ecological Risk Assessment Methods, Revision 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirenda, Richard J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2012-08-16

    This document provides guidance for screening-level assessments of potential adverse impacts to ecological resources from release of environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory). The methods presented are based on two objectives, namely: to provide a basis for reaching consensus with regulators, managers, and other interested parties on how to conduct screening-level ecological risk investigations at the Laboratory; and to provide guidance for ecological risk assessors under the Environmental Programs (EP) Directorate. This guidance promotes consistency, rigor, and defensibility in ecological screening investigations and in reporting those investigation results. The purpose of the screening assessment is to provide information to the risk managers so informed riskmanagement decisions can be made. This document provides examples of recommendations and possible risk-management strategies.

  2. Is Exercise Stress Testing a Cost-Saving Strategy For Risk Assessment of Pediatric Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome Patients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moltedo, Jose M.; Iyer, Ramesh V.; Forman, Howard; Fahey, John; Rosenthal, Geoffrey; Snyder, Christopher S.

    2006-01-01

    Background: In Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome (WPW) patients the loss of pre-excitation in a single heartbeat during exercise stress testing (EST) is a predictor of low risk of sudden death. The purpose of this study was to: 1) assess the frequency of loss of pre-excitation in a single heartbeat during exercise testing, and 2) compare the cost of EST versus trans-catheter electrophysiology study (EPS) in the risk assessment of WPW patients. Methods: A retrospective review of 50 cases of patients with WPW who underwent EST was conducted including demographics, history of supraventricular tachycardia, associated congenital heart disease, maximum heart rate achieved, and loss of pre-excitation in a single heartbeat. Hospital costs of EST and EPS were compared. Results: Of the 50 patients who underwent EST, 4 (8%), lost pre-excitation in a single heartbeat during EST. No differences were found regarding gender, age at diagnosis or EST, history of supraventricular tachycardia, presence of congenital heart disease or maximal heart rate. A cost comparison, utilizing the cost data: EST ($62.75) and EPS ($5,597) found EST to be a cost-saving approach in WPW patients. With 4 patients losing pre-excitation during EST, the cost saving of EST was $22,388 for this population of WPW patients. Conclusions: A frequency of 8% loss of pre-excitation was found in a pediatric sample that underwent EST. Additionally, EST was shown to be a cost-saving strategy in risk assessment of pediatric WPW patients. PMID:21845141

  3. Operational risk in bank governance and control: How to save capital requirement through a risk transfer strategy. Evidences from a simulated case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enzo Scannella

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Operational risk management in banking has assumed such importance during the last decade. It has become increasingly important to measure, manage, and assess the impact of operational risk in the economics of banking. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how an effective operational risk management provides mitigating effects on capital-at-risk in banking. The paper provides evidences that an implementation of an operational risk transfer strategy reduces bank capital requirement. The paper adopts the loss distribution approach, the Monte Carlo simulation, and copula methodologies to estimate the regulatory capital and simulate an operational risk transfer strategy in banking.

  4. Risk assessment of hazardous waste transport - perspectives of GIS application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazar, R.E.; Dumitrescu, M.; Stefanescu, I.

    2001-01-01

    Due to the increasing public awareness of the potential risks associated with waste transport, the environmental impact assessment of this activity has become an issue of major importance. This paper presents a project proposal, which can establish a national action plan for waste transport evaluation. Such a programme is sustained by the necessity to obtain an adequate method for the rapid and efficient estimation of individual and social risks due to the transport of hazardous substances in Romania. The main objective is to develop regional strategies for risk assessment in comprising: establishing the areas that must be investigated and their particular characteristics; identifying the transport activities in the areas; determining hazards; establishing the analysis criteria and prioritizing the study areas; evaluating continuous emissions; studying major accidents; studying population health; classifying the risks; establishing regional strategies; implementing political and regulatory measures. The project expectation is to provide a decision tool for risk managers and authorities in order to control or limit transportation and the storage of hazardous substances.(author)

  5. Evaluating risk management strategies in resource planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrews, C.J.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses the evaluation of risk management strategies as a part of integrated resource planning. Value- and scope-related uncertainties can be addressed during the process of planning, but uncertainties in the operating environment require technical analysis within planning models. Flexibility and robustness are two key classes of strategies for managing the risk posed by these uncertainties. This paper reviews standard capacity expansion planning models and shows that they are poorly equipped to compare risk management strategies. Those that acknowledge uncertainty are better at evaluating robustness than flexibility, which implies a bias against flexible options. Techniques are available to overcome this bias

  6. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  7. The California Multimedia Risk Assessment Protocol for Alternative Fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatch, T.; Ginn, T. R.; McKone, T. E.; Rice, D. W.

    2013-12-01

    Any new fuel in California requires approval by the state agencies overseeing human and environmental health. In order to provide a systematic evaluation of new fuel impacts, California now requires a multimedia risk assessment (MMRA) for fuel approval. The fuel MMRA involves all relevant state agencies including: the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), the Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment (OEHHA), and the Department of Toxic Substances Control (DTSC) overseen by the California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA). The lead agency for MMRAs is the CARB. The original law requiring a multimedia assessment is California Health and Safety Code 43830.8. In addition, the low carbon fuel standard (LCFS), the Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), and the Verified Diesel Emission Control Strategy (VDECS) have provisions that can require a multimedia assessment. In this presentation, I give an overview of the California multimedia risk assessment (MMRA) for new fuels that has been recently developed and applied to several alternative fuels. The objective of the California MMRA is to assess risk of potential impacts of new fuels to multiple environmental media including: air, water, and soil. Attainment of this objective involves many challenges, including varying levels of uncertainty, relative comparison of incommensurate risk factors, and differing levels of priority assigned to risk factors. The MMRA is based on a strategy of relative risk assessment and flexible accommodation of distinct and diverse fuel formulations. The approach is tiered by design, in order to allow for sequentially more sophisticated investigations as knowledge gaps are identified and re-prioritized by the ongoing research. The assessment also involves peer review in order to provide coupling between risk assessment and stakeholder investment, as well as constructive or confrontational feedback. The multimedia assessment

  8. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  9. Toxicity assessment strategies, data requirements, and risk assessment approaches to derive health based guidance values for non-relevant metabolites of plant protection products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekant, Wolfgang; Melching-Kollmuss, Stephanie; Kalberlah, Fritz

    2010-03-01

    In Europe, limits for tolerable concentrations of "non-relevant metabolites" for active ingredients (AI) of plant protection products in drinking water between 0.1 and 10 microg/L are discussed depending on the toxicological information available. "Non-relevant metabolites" are degradation products of AIs, which do not or only partially retain the targeted toxicities of AIs. For "non-relevant metabolites" without genotoxicity (to be confirmed by testing in vitro), the application of the concept of "thresholds of toxicological concern" results in a health-based drinking water limit of 4.5 microg/L even for Cramer class III compounds, using the TTC threshold of 90 microg/person/day (divided by 10 and 2). Taking into account the thresholds derived from two reproduction toxicity data bases a drinking water limit of 3.0 microg/L is proposed. Therefore, for "non-relevant metabolites" whose drinking water concentration is below 3.0 microg/L, no toxicity testing is necessary. This work develops a toxicity assessment strategy as a basis to delineate health-based limits for "non-relevant metabolites" in ground and drinking water. Toxicological testing is recommended to investigate, whether the metabolites are relevant or not, based on the hazard properties of the parent AIs, as outlined in the SANCO Guidance document. Also, genotoxicity testing of the water metabolites is clearly recommended. In this publication, tiered testing strategies are proposed for non-relevant metabolites, when drinking water concentrations >3.0 microg/L will occur. Conclusions based on structure-activity relationships and the detailed toxicity database on the parent AI should be included. When testing in animals is required for risk assessment, key aspects are studies along OECD-testing guidelines with "enhanced" study designs addressing additional endpoints such as reproductive toxicity and a developmental screening test to derive health-based tolerable drinking water limits with a limited number

  10. Early clinical assessment for harsh child discipline strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaffney, Kathleen F; Barndt-Maglio, Bonnie; Myers, Sue; Kollar, Shelley J

    2002-01-01

    To examine the relationships among four maternal variables: 1) prenatal report of discipline expectant mothers received when they were children, 2) prenatal intentions for disciplining one's own child, 3) report of intended child discipline strategies when infant is 8 months old, and 4) observed maternal role sufficiency behaviors. Replication and extension study; 3-wave prospective longitudinal design. The procedure consisted of prenatal clinic interviews in which women (N = 185) reported how their mothers handled specific child behaviors and how they intended to handle the same behaviors with their children. During a home visit when their babies were 8 months old, the mothers (n = 126) were again asked how they intended to handle these behaviors, and observations were made of maternal role sufficiency behaviors. Correlation and regression analyses were performed with data generated from an adaptation of the Ways of Handling Irritating Behavior scale, the NCAST Teaching Scale, and the HOME scale. A significant relationship was found between mothers' prenatal reports of discipline received as a child and prenatal reports of intentions for disciplining their own children. For mothers of infants, reported intentions for future child discipline strategies were predicted by their prenatal reports. Mothers with clinically at-risk scores on the NCAST Teaching Scale and HOME scale reported more intended harsh child discipline strategies than those not at-risk. Assessment for harsh, nonnurturing child discipline strategies during prenatal and well-baby health maintenance checks may assist in uncovering "red flags" for early intervention to reduce the risk of later child abuse and neglect.

  11. Assessing risk from intelligent attacks: A perspective on approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guikema, Seth D.; Aven, Terje

    2010-01-01

    Assessing the uncertainties in and severity of the consequences of intelligent attacks are fundamentally different from risk assessment for accidental events and other phenomena with inherently random failures. Intelligent attacks against a system involve adaptation on the part of the adversary. The probabilities of the initiating events depend on the risk management actions taken, and they may be more difficult to assess due to high degrees of epistemic uncertainty about the motivations and future actions of adversaries. Several fundamentally different frameworks have been proposed for assessing risk from intelligent attacks. These include basing risk assessment and management on game theoretic modelling of attacker actions, using a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach based on eliciting probabilities of different initiating events from appropriate experts, assessing uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values, and ignoring the probabilities of the attacks and choosing to protect highest valued targets. In this paper we discuss and compare the fundamental assumptions that underlie each of these approaches. We then suggest a new framework that makes the fundamental assumptions underlying the approaches clear to decision makers and presents them with a suite of results from conditional risk analysis methods. Each of the conditional methods presents the risk from a specified set of fundamental assumptions, allowing the decision maker to see the impacts of these assumptions on the risk management strategies considered and to weight the different conditional results with their assessments of the relative likelihood of the different sets of assumptions.

  12. Strategy utilized for assessing baseline risks to human health from K-65 and metal oxide residues stored at the Fernald Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harmon, J.E. [FERMCO, Cincinnati, OH (United States). Fernald Environmental Management Project; Janke, R.C.

    1995-04-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) site in southwestern Ohio. The 425-hectare site consists of a former 55-hectare Production Area, an adjacent Waste Storage Area and various support facilities. From 1952 until 1989, the FEMP processed uranium into metallic {open_quotes}feed{close_quotes} materials for other DOE facilities in the nation`s defense program. In accordance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA), the FEMP site is currently listed on the National Priorities List (NPL). To facilitate an expeditious cleanup effort, environmental issues associated with site cleanup are being managed under five operable units. This paper summarizes the risk assessment strategy employed to determine baseline human health risks associated with K-65 and metal oxide residues currently stored in Operable Unit 4. The K-65 and metal oxide residues were generated during the 1950s as a result of the extraction of uranium from uranium-bearing ores and concentrates. These residues are currently stored within Operable Unit 4 in concrete silos. Silos I and 2 contain approximately 6,120 cubic meters [m{sup 3}] (8,005 cubic yards [yd{sup 3}]) of K-65 residues, while silos 3 contains approximately 3890 m{sup 3} (5,080 yd{sup 3}) of cold metal oxides. These concrete silos are beyond their design life and require remedial action. The risk assessment conducted for Operable Unit 4 constitutes the first detailed human health risk assessment to be approved by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the CERCLA clean-up effort at the FEMP Site. This paper discusses the FEMP`s use of a Risk Information Quality Objective process in concert with the traditional risk assessment approach to determine baseline risk to human health and the environment posed by Operable Unit 4. A summary of the baseline risks to human health is also presented.

  13. Strongyle infections and parasitic control strategies in German horses - a risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Stephanie; Pfister, Kurt; Becher, Anne M; Scheuerle, Miriam C

    2014-11-12

    As a consequence of the increasing levels of anthelmintic resistance in cyathostomes, new strategies for equine parasite control are being implemented. To assess the potential risks of these, the occurrence of strongyles was evaluated in a group of 1887 horses. The distribution of fecal egg counts (FECs), the frequency of anthelmintic drug use, and the deworming intervals were also analyzed. Between June 2012 and May 2013, 1887 fecal samples from either selectively or strategically dewormed horses were collected at 195 horse farms all over Germany and analyzed quantitatively with a modified McMaster technique. All samples with FEC ≥20 eggs per gram (EPG) were subjected to coproculture to generate third-stage larvae (LIII) for species differentiation. Egg counts were below the limit of detection (20 EPG) in 1046 (55.4%) samples and above it in 841 (44.6%) samples. Strongylus vulgaris larvae were identified in two of the 841 positive samples. Infections with cyathostomes were found on every farm. The most frequently applied anthelmintic was ivermectin (788/50.8%), followed by pyrantel (336/21.6%). The mean time since last treatment was 6.3 months. High-egg-shedding (>500 EPG) strategically dewormed horses (183/1357) were treated, on average, three times/year. The planned treatment date was already exceeded by 72.5% of the high egg-shedders and by 58.1% of the moderate (200-500 EPG) and low egg-shedders (20-199 EPG). S. vulgaris seems to be rare in Germany and no difference in its frequency has yet been found between selectively treated horses and horses receiving treatment in strategic intervals. However, inconsistent parasite control has been observed. Therefore, to minimize the risks for disease, consistent and efficient parasite control should be implemented.

  14. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  15. Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: Insights from an Agent-Based Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, K; Surminski, S; Hall, J; Crick, F

    2017-10-01

    Climate change and increasing urbanization are projected to result in an increase in surface water flooding and consequential damages in the future. In this paper, we present insights from a novel Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by homeowners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the new flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The analysis highlights that while combined investment in property-level flood protection and sustainable urban drainage systems reduce surface water flood risk, the benefits can be outweighed by continued development in high risk areas and the effects of climate change. In our simulations, Flood Re is beneficial in its function to provide affordable insurance, even under climate change. However, the scheme does face increasing financial pressure due to rising surface water flood damages. If the intended transition to risk-based pricing is to take place then a determined and coordinated strategy will be needed to manage flood risk, which utilises insurance incentives, limits new development, and supports resilience measures. Our modelling approach and findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as for wider discussions on the potential of insurance schemes to incentivise flood risk management and climate adaptation in the UK and internationally. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Method of assessing severe accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.; Okrent, D.; Jae, M.; Lim, H.; Milici, T.; Park, H.; Swider, J.; Xing, L.; Yu, D.

    1991-01-01

    Accident management can be defined as the innovative use of existing and or alternative resources, systems, and actions to prevent or mitigate a severe accident. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) have been completed that yield the principal plant vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities can be categorized as (1) dominant sequences with respect to core-melt frequency. (2) dominant sequences with respect to various risk measures. (3) dominant threats that challenge safety functions. (4) dominant threats with respect to failure of safety systems. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy, there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These considerations include uncertainties in key phenomena, operator behavior, system availability and behavior, and available information. This paper presents a methodology for assessing severe accident management strategies given the key uncertainties delineated at two workshops held at the University of California, Los Angeles. Based on decision trees and influence diagrams, the methodology is currently being applied to two case studies: cavity flooding in a pressurized water reactor (PWR) to prevent vessel penetration or failure, and drywell flooding in a boiling water reactor to prevent vessel and/or containment failure

  17. Design of risk communication strategies based on risk perception among farmers exposed to pesticides in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peres, Frederico; Rodrigues, Karla Meneses; da Silva Peixoto Belo, Mariana Soares; Moreira, Josino Costa; Claudio, Luz

    2013-01-01

    This study aims to assess pesticide exposure risk perception among farmers from three rural areas of Nova Friburgo, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 66 adults and participatory workshops with 27 teenagers and analyzed through content analysis techniques. Systematized results were discussed at local meetings, and two risk communication initiatives were devised. Study results demonstrated the use of defensive strategies by men and a diminished risk perception among women. Teenagers relied on parents to develop their own work practices. These findings supported the importance of cultural and social determinants of farmers' understandings of risk and of the relevance of different pesticide exposure pathways. Risk perceptions and work practices are strongly influenced by local cultural patterns and, therefore, must be taken into account when developing effective intervention strategies, including risk communication initiatives. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  19. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  20. Assessment of strategy formulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acur, Nuran; Englyst, Linda

    2006-01-01

    of the success criteria through face-to-face interviews with 46 managers, workshops involving 40 managers, and two in-depth case studies. The success criteria have been slightly modified due to the empirical results, to yield the assessment tool. Findings – The resulting assessment tool integrates three generic...... approaches to strategy assessment, namely the goal-centred, comparative and improvement approaches, as found in the literature. Furthermore, it encompasses three phases of strategy formulation processes: strategic thinking, strategic planning and embedding of strategy. The tool reflects that the different......, but cases and managerial perceptions indicate that the need for accurate and detailed plans might be overrated in the literature, as implementation relies heavily on continuous improvement and empowerment. Concerning embedding, key aspects relate both to the goal-centred and improvement approaches, while...

  1. Risk communication strategies : achieving a multidisciplinary consensus; La communication des risques : un consensus multidisciplinaire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert, B.; Cloutier, I. [Ecole Polytechnique, Montreal, PQ (Canada). Dept. de Mathematiques et de Genie Industriel; Sabourin, J.P. [Ville de Quebec, Quebec, PQ (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Risk management related to floods and dam failures requires input from a variety of stakeholders from both the private and the public sector. This paper provided details of a risk management communication strategy based on a consequence approach that established work sequence modes to achieve a multidisciplinary consensus of opinion. The communication of risk was considered as a bilateral exchange of information between concerned parties, who were divided into 2 spheres: (1) a public sphere which included interest groups, government agencies, individuals and the media; and (2) a technical sphere comprised of industry members, scientific experts, and government agencies. Divided between the 2 spheres, government agencies play a distinct role in both the communication and understanding of risk. In Quebec, municipal agencies are required to identify risk and develop plans that ensure public safety. Risk management plans developed by industry members are a valuable source of information for municipal authorities, who can identify vulnerabilities in their own risk communication strategies. In addition, members of the public play an important role in eliciting further risk communications to improve areas of vulnerability. Interest groups can demand further analyses from impartial sources on sensitive issues. Conflicting results offer a plurality of opinions that must be considered to obtain a consensus in risk assessment, which is the ultimate aim of all risk analyses and communications strategies. It was concluded that risk communication strategies benefit from the engagement of a variety of often conflicting views. 8 refs., 3 figs.

  2. PCA-based polling strategy in machine learning framework for coronary artery disease risk assessment in intravascular ultrasound: A link between carotid and coronary grayscale plaque morphology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araki, Tadashi; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Shukla, Devarshi; Jain, Pankaj K; Londhe, Narendra D; Shrivastava, Vimal K; Banchhor, Sumit K; Saba, Luca; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Suri, Jasjit S

    2016-05-01

    Percutaneous coronary interventional procedures need advance planning prior to stenting or an endarterectomy. Cardiologists use intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) for screening, risk assessment and stratification of coronary artery disease (CAD). We hypothesize that plaque components are vulnerable to rupture due to plaque progression. Currently, there are no standard grayscale IVUS tools for risk assessment of plaque rupture. This paper presents a novel strategy for risk stratification based on plaque morphology embedded with principal component analysis (PCA) for plaque feature dimensionality reduction and dominant feature selection technique. The risk assessment utilizes 56 grayscale coronary features in a machine learning framework while linking information from carotid and coronary plaque burdens due to their common genetic makeup. This system consists of a machine learning paradigm which uses a support vector machine (SVM) combined with PCA for optimal and dominant coronary artery morphological feature extraction. Carotid artery proven intima-media thickness (cIMT) biomarker is adapted as a gold standard during the training phase of the machine learning system. For the performance evaluation, K-fold cross validation protocol is adapted with 20 trials per fold. For choosing the dominant features out of the 56 grayscale features, a polling strategy of PCA is adapted where the original value of the features is unaltered. Different protocols are designed for establishing the stability and reliability criteria of the coronary risk assessment system (cRAS). Using the PCA-based machine learning paradigm and cross-validation protocol, a classification accuracy of 98.43% (AUC 0.98) with K=10 folds using an SVM radial basis function (RBF) kernel was achieved. A reliability index of 97.32% and machine learning stability criteria of 5% were met for the cRAS. This is the first Computer aided design (CADx) system of its kind that is able to demonstrate the ability of coronary

  3. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  4. Precommitted Investment Strategy versus Time-Consistent Investment Strategy for a Dual Risk Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidong Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We are concerned with optimal investment strategy for a dual risk model. We assume that the company can invest into a risk-free asset and a risky asset. Short-selling and borrowing money are allowed. Due to lack of iterated-expectation property, the Bellman Optimization Principle does not hold. Thus we investigate the precommitted strategy and time-consistent strategy, respectively. We take three steps to derive the precommitted investment strategy. Furthermore, the time-consistent investment strategy is also obtained by solving the extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. We compare the precommitted strategy with time-consistent strategy and find that these different strategies have different advantages: the former can make value function maximized at the original time t=0 and the latter strategy is time-consistent for the whole time horizon. Finally, numerical analysis is presented for our results.

  5. The Role of Alternative Testing Strategies in Environmental Risk Assessment of Engineered Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjorth, Rune; Holden, Patricia; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2017-01-01

    ) workshop in Washington, D.C. and serves as the point of depature for this paper. Here we present the main outcomes by describing and defining the use of ATS for ENMs as well as discussing its future role in environmental risk science. We conclude that diversity in testing should be encouraged to avoid...... chemicals are challenged. Nonetheless, standardized whole organism animal testing is still considered the gold standard for environmental risk assessment. Advancing risk analysis of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) through ATS was discussed in September 2014 at an international Society for Risk Analysis (SRA...... be utilized to skip uncertain environmental extrapolations and give rise to more accurate risk analysis....

  6. Nutritional strategies to reduce falls risk in older people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, Louise; Bergin, Nick

    2018-03-23

    A literature review found an association between increased falls risk and malnutrition, sarcopenia, vitamin D deficiency and dehydration. Strategies to identify, prevent and treat these conditions can help to reduce falls risk in at-risk groups such as frail, older people. Nurses can reduce falls risk in older people by raising awareness of risk factors and embedding nutritional strategies in local falls reduction strategies. ©2018 RCN Publishing Company Ltd. All rights reserved. Not to be copied, transmitted or recorded in any way, in whole or part, without prior permission of the publishers.

  7. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  8. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  9. A framework for assessing severe accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.; Okrent, D.; Jae, M.; Lim, H.; Milici, T.; Park, H.; Swider, J.; Xing, L.; Yu, D.

    1991-01-01

    Accident management can be defined as the innovative use of existing and or alternative resources, systems and actions to prevent or mitigate a severe accident. Together with risk management (changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-in-depth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) have been completed which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These considerations include uncertainty in key phenomena, uncertainty in operator behavior, uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and uncertainty in available information (i.e., instrumentation). The objective of this project is to develop a methodology for assessing severe accident management strategies given the key uncertainties mentioned above. Based on Decision Trees and Influence Diagrams, the methodology is currently being applied to two case studies: cavity flooding in a PWR to prevent vessel penetration or failure, and drywell flooding in a BWR to prevent containment failure

  10. Risk assessment basis for WWER-440 spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lascek, M.; Necas, V.; Darilek, P.

    2000-01-01

    The most problematic part of nuclear fuel cycle is its back end. Various high level waste management are available or under development (final disposal of spent assemblies in deep repository, reprocessing, partitioning, transmutation,...). Application of any method is connected with production of characteristic high level waste (amount, radio-toxicity, form,...) as well as various risk level for the environment and mankind. Strategy selection should be based on risk analysis also. The paper deals with assessment of risk, that is associated with WWER-440 spent fuel inventory. In order to evaluate the risk, the accumulated amount of the radioactive inventory is calculated and the decay of the long-lived radionuclides is computed by ORIGEN code. Analysis is oriented on calculation of hazard indexes for assessing the relative hazards of actinides, toxic and long-lived radionuclides. (Authors)

  11. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  12. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  13. The Strategies to Reduce Injuries and Develop Confidence in Elders Intervention: Falls Risk Factor Assessment and Management, Patient Engagement, and Nurse Co-management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuben, David B; Gazarian, Priscilla; Alexander, Neil; Araujo, Katy; Baker, Dorothy; Bean, Jonathan F; Boult, Chad; Charpentier, Peter; Duncan, Pamela; Latham, Nancy; Leipzig, Rosanne M; Quintiliani, Lisa M; Storer, Thomas; McMahon, Siobhan

    2017-12-01

    In response to the epidemic of falls and serious falls-related injuries in older persons, in 2014, the Patient Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) and the National Institute on Aging funded a pragmatic trial, Strategies to Reduce Injuries and Develop confidence in Elders (STRIDE) to compare the effects of a multifactorial intervention with those of an enhanced usual care intervention. The STRIDE multifactorial intervention consists of five major components that registered nurses deliver in the role of falls care managers, co-managing fall risk in partnership with patients and their primary care providers (PCPs). The components include a standardized assessment of eight modifiable risk factors (medications; postural hypotension; feet and footwear; vision; vitamin D; osteoporosis; home safety; strength, gait, and balance impairment) and the use of protocols and algorithms to generate recommended management of risk factors; explanation of assessment results to the patient (and caregiver when appropriate) using basic motivational interviewing techniques to elicit patient priorities, preferences, and readiness to participate in treatments; co-creation of individualized falls care plans that patients' PCPs review, modify, and approve; implementation of the falls care plan; and ongoing monitoring of response, regularly scheduled re-assessments of fall risk, and revisions of the falls care plan. Custom-designed falls care management software facilitates risk factor assessment, the identification of recommended interventions, clinic note generation, and longitudinal care management. The trial testing the effectiveness of the STRIDE intervention is in progress, with results expected in late 2019. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  14. Evaluation of the performance of existing non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The high burden and rising incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in resource constrained countries necessitates implementation of robust and pragmatic primary and secondary prevention strategies. Many current CVD management guidelines recommend absolute cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment as a clinically sound guide to preventive and treatment strategies. Development of non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms enable absolute risk assessment in resource constrained countries. The objective of this review is to evaluate the performance of existing non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms using the benchmarks for clinically useful CV risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Methods A literature search to identify non-laboratory based risk prediction algorithms was performed in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Ovid Premier Nursing Journals Plus, and PubMed databases. The identified algorithms were evaluated using the benchmarks for clinically useful cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Results Five non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms were identified. The Gaziano and Framingham algorithms met the criteria for appropriateness of statistical methods used to derive the algorithms and endpoints. The Swedish Consultation, Framingham and Gaziano algorithms demonstrated good discrimination in derivation datasets. Only the Gaziano algorithm was externally validated where it had optimal discrimination. The Gaziano and WHO algorithms had chart formats which made them simple and user friendly for clinical application. Conclusion Both the Gaziano and Framingham non-laboratory based algorithms met most of the criteria outlined by Cooney and colleagues. External validation of the algorithms in diverse samples is needed to ascertain their performance and applicability to different populations and to enhance clinicians’ confidence in them. PMID:24373202

  15. Risk Assessment Strategy for Decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akira Yamaguchi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Risk management of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station decommissioning is a great challenge. In the present study, a risk management framework has been developed for the decommissioning work. It is applied to fuel assembly retrieval from Unit 3 spent fuel pool. Whole retrieval work is divided into three phases: preparation, retrieval, and transportation and storage. First of all, the end point has been established and the success path has been developed. Then, possible threats, which are internal/external and technical/societal/management, are identified and selected. “What can go wrong?” is a question about the failure scenario. The likelihoods and consequences for each scenario are roughly estimated. The whole decommissioning project will continue for several decades, i.e., long-term perspective is important. What should be emphasized is that we do not always have enough knowledge and experience of this kind. It is expected that the decommissioning can make steady and good progress in support of the proposed risk management framework. Thus, risk assessment and management are required, and the process needs to be updated in accordance with the most recent information and knowledge on the decommissioning works.

  16. Risk assessment strategy for decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamaguchi, Akira; Jang, Sung Hoon [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan); Hida, Kazuki [Nuclear Damage Compensation and Decommissioning Facilitation Corporation, Tokyo (Japan); Yamanaka, Yasunori [Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Tokyo (Japan); Narumiya, Yoshiyuki [The Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc., Osaka (Japan)

    2017-03-15

    Risk management of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station decommissioning is a great challenge. In the present study, a risk management framework has been developed for the decommissioning work. It is applied to fuel assembly retrieval from Unit 3 spent fuel pool. Whole retrieval work is divided into three phases: preparation, retrieval, and transportation and storage. First of all, the end point has been established and the success path has been developed. Then, possible threats, which are internal/external and technical/societal/management, are identified and selected. “What can go wrong?” is a question about the failure scenario. The likelihoods and consequences for each scenario are roughly estimated. The whole decommissioning project will continue for several decades, i.e., long-term perspective is important. What should be emphasized is that we do not always have enough knowledge and experience of this kind. It is expected that the decommissioning can make steady and good progress in support of the proposed risk management framework. Thus, risk assessment and management are required, and the process needs to be updated in accordance with the most recent information and knowledge on the decommissioning works.

  17. Low-cost risk reduction strategy for small workplaces: how can we spread good practices?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kogi, K

    2006-01-01

    Recent advances in health risk reduction approaches are examined based on inter-country networking experiences. A noteworthy progress is the wider application of low-cost improvements to risk reduction particularly in small enterprises and agriculture in both industrially developing and developed countries. This is helped by the readiness of managers and workers to implement these improvements despite many constraints. Typical improvements include mobile racks, simple workstation changes, screening hazards, better welfare facilities and teamwork arrangements. In view of the complex circumstances of work-related health risks, it is important to know whether a low-cost strategy can advance risk reduction practices effectively and what support measures are necessary. It is confirmed that the strategy can overcome related constraints through its advantages. Main advantages lie in (a) the facilitation of improved practices in multiple technical areas, (b) the strengthening of realistic stepwise risk reduction, and (c) the enhanced multiplier effects through training of local trainers. Action-oriented risk assessment tools, such as action checklists and low-cost improvement guides, can encourage risk-reducing measures adjusted to each local situation. It is suggested to spread the low-cost risk reduction strategy for improving small workplaces in diversified settings with the support of these locally tailored tools.

  18. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  19. Pressure ulcer risk assessment and prevention: what difference does a risk scale make? A comparison between Norway and Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, E; Moore, Z; van Etten, M; Strapp, H

    2014-07-01

    To explore similarities and differences in nurses' views on risk assessment practices and preventive care activities in a context where patients' risk of developing pressure ulcers is assessed using clinical judgment (Norway) and a context where patients' risk of developing pressure ulcers is assessed using a formal structured risk assessment combined with clinical judgement (Ireland). A descriptive, qualitative design was employed across two different care settings with a total of 14 health care workers, nine from Norway and five from Ireland. Regardless of whether risk assessment was undertaken using clinical judgment or formal structured risk assessment, identified risk factors, at risk patients and appropriate preventive initiatives discussed by participant were similar across care settings. Furthermore, risk assessment did not necessarily result in the planning and implementation of appropriate pressure ulcer prevention initiatives. Thus, in this instance, use of a formal risk assessment tool does not seem to make any difference to the planning, initiation and evaluation of pressure ulcer prevention strategies. Regardless of the method of risk assessment, patients at risk of developing pressure ulcers are detected, suggesting that the practice of risk assessment should be re-evaluated. Moreover, appropriate preventive interventions were described. However, the missing link between risk assessment and documented care planning is of concern and barriers to appropriate pressure ulcer documentation should be explored further. This work is partly funded by a research grant from the Norwegian Nurses Organisation (NNO) (Norsk Sykepleierforbund NSF) in 2012. The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

  20. Genetic cancer risk assessment in practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruber, S.

    2004-01-01

    The advent of genetic testing has made a dramatic impact on the management of individuals with inherited susceptibility to cancer and their relatives. Genetic counsel ing, with or without testing, is warranted when clues to familial cancer are recognized. Today, genetic testing for classic cancer genetic syndromes is now the standard of care, and has been complemented by genetic testing for other situations commonly encountered in clinical practice. Genetic testing for colorectal cancer, breast cancer, kidney cancer, thyroid cancer, melanoma, and pancreatic cancer raise important issues about the parameters for testing. Genetic cancer risk assessment can lead to measurable reductions in morbidity and mortality through strategies that rely on surveillance, chemo prevention, and risk-reducing surgery

  1. Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

    2016-08-01

    Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment of insecticide concentrations in agricultural surface waters: a critical appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stehle, Sebastian; Knäbel, Anja; Schulz, Ralf

    2013-08-01

    Due to the specific modes of action and application patterns of agricultural insecticides, the insecticide exposure of agricultural surface waters is characterized by infrequent and short-term insecticide concentration peaks of high ecotoxicological relevance with implications for both monitoring and risk assessment. Here, we apply several fixed-interval strategies and an event-based sampling strategy to two generalized and two realistic insecticide exposure patterns for typical agricultural streams derived from FOCUS exposure modeling using Monte Carlo simulations. Sampling based on regular intervals was found to be inadequate for the detection of transient insecticide concentrations, whereas event-triggered sampling successfully detected all exposure incidences at substantially lower analytical costs. Our study proves that probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) concepts in their present forms are not appropriate for a thorough evaluation of insecticide exposure. Despite claims that the PRA approach uses all available data to assess exposure and enhances risk assessment realism, we demonstrate that this concept is severely biased by the amount of insecticide concentrations below detection limits and therefore by the sampling designs. Moreover, actual insecticide exposure is of almost no relevance for PRA threshold level exceedance frequencies and consequential risk assessment outcomes. Therefore, we propose a concept that features a field-relevant ecological risk analysis of agricultural insecticide surface water exposure. Our study quantifies for the first time the environmental and economic consequences of inappropriate monitoring and risk assessment concepts used for the evaluation of short-term peak surface water pollutants such as insecticides.

  3. A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datta, Koushik; Fraser, Douglas R.

    2009-01-01

    The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

  4. Management and policy: political strategies and instruments of the risk types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Renn, O.; Klinke, A.

    1998-01-01

    The main objective of the risk classification is to gain an effective and feasible policy tool for the evaluation and the management or risks. The characterisation provides a platform for designing specific political strategies and measures for each risk type. The strategies pursue the goal to transform unacceptable into acceptable risks, i.e. the risks should not be reduced to zero, but they should be reduced to a level that routine risk management becomes sufficient to ensure safety and integrity. All strategies and respective measures are arranged according to priorities. In the normal case more than one strategy and more than one measure are naturally appropriate and necessary. If resources are limited, strategies and measures should be taken in line with the priority list. The following part lists the prior strategies and the prior measures recommended for each risk type. (authors)

  5. [Risk assessments and control strategies of plague in five key surveillance counties, Zhejiang province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Guoxiang; Ju, Cheng; Zhang, Rong; Zhang, Zheng; Sun, Jimin; Wang, Miaoruo; Zhang, Xiaohe; Ye, Xianming; Zhu, Zhihong; Xing, Jianguang; Liao, Xiaowei; Chen, Zhiping

    2015-10-01

    To analyze the epidemiology data on plague in five counties in Zhejiang province and to evaluate the risk of plague in theses areas. We selected five monitoring stations as a risk assessment (Qingyuan county, Longquan city, Yiwu city, Wencheng county, and Ruian city) in Zhejiang province where the plague epidemic more serious in the history. At least one constant site and 1-4 variable sites where plague occurred in history were selected for monitoring. We collected the five counties (cities) surveillance data of indoor rat density, indoor Rattus flavipectus density, the Xenopsylla cheopis index of rat, the Xenopsylla cheopis index of Rattus flavipectus in 1995-2014. Isolation of Yersinia pestis was conducted among 171,201 liver samples and F1 antibody were detected among 228,775 serum samples. Risk matrix, Borda count method, and Delphi approach were conducted to assess risk of the plague of five counties (cities) in Zhejiang province. Indoor rat density in Qingyuan county, Longquan city, Yiwu city, Wencheng county, Ruian city was 1.58%-5.50%, 1.13%-9.76%, 0.56%-3.67%, 2.83%-16.08%, 7.16%-15.96%, respectively; Indoor Rattus flavipectus density of five counties (cities) was 0.08%-2.23%, 0-2.02%, 0-0.54%, 0.71%-5.58%, 0.55%-4.92%, respectively. The Xenopsylla cheopis index of rat in Qingyuan county and Wencheng county was 0.011-0.500 and 0.015-0.227, respectively; The Xenopsylla cheopis index of Rattus flavipectus of Qingyuan county and Wencheng county was 0.119-3.412 and 0.100-1.430, respectively; Ruian City and Yiwu city cannot collected Xenopsylla cheopis, Long quan city only collected the Xenopsylla cheopis index of rat in the five years. Yersinia pestis were not isolated in five counties (cities).There were 3 Apodemus agrarius samples positive of plague F1 antibody test, in Longquan city and Yiwu city in 2005. Borda count method to assess the Longquan city, Yiwu (Borda point were both 321) plague risk was higher than three other regions; Delphi approach to

  6. Risk Scan: A Review of Risk Assessment Capability and Maturity within the Canadian Safety and Security Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    SCADA / ICS Cyber Test Lab initiated in 2013 Psychosocial – academic research exists,; opportunity for sharing and developing impact assessment...ecosystems and species at risk), accidents / system failure (rail; pipelines ; ferries CSSP strategy for the North Focus on regional l(and local) problem...Guidance; business planning; environmental scan; proposal evaluation; and performance measurement Program Risk Management – Guidelines for project

  7. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  8. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  9. Development of Cyber-attack Risk Assessment Model for Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jong Woo; Lee, Seung Jun

    2017-01-01

    In this work, a risk evaluation method to identify significant cyber-attack scenarios and important components which should be defensed was proposed based on the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method which is widely used for evaluating risk of NPPs. NPPs adopting digital systems have been facing the risk of cyber-attacks. To develop efficient and reasonable defense strategy, it is required to identify significant cyber-attack scenarios and important components because there are huge number of critical digital assets in an NPP. By evaluating the risk of cyber-attack, the risk-informed defense strategies against cyber-attack could be suggested. In this work, the method to identify important cyber-attack scenarios and to evaluate the quantitative risk caused by cyber-attacks was proposed. For a future study, more feasible scenarios will be analyzed and additional modifications will be made in the model if necessary.

  10. Performance of Generating Plant: Managing the Changes. Part 4: Markets and Risk Management Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moss, Terry; Loedolff, Gerhard; Griffin, Rob; Kydd, Robert; Micali, Vince [Eskom (South Africa)

    2008-05-15

    The WEC Committee on the Performance of Generating Plant (PGP) has been collecting and analysing power plant performance statistics worldwide for more than 30 years and has produced regular reports, which include examples of advanced techniques and methods for improving power plant performance through benchmarking. A series of reports from the various working groups was issued in 2008. This reference presents the results of Working Group 4 (WG4). WG4 will monitor the development of power markets, in particular from the market risk management point of view, including operational risks. It will assess various risk management strategies used by market players around the world and develop recommendations for a wider deployment of successful strategies. The report covers the project approach and outcomes.

  11. Anesthesia and ventilation strategies in children with asthma: part I - preoperative assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regli, Adrian; von Ungern-Sternberg, Britta S

    2014-06-01

    Asthma is a common disease in the pediatric population, and anesthetists are increasingly confronted with asthmatic children undergoing elective surgery. This first of this two-part review provides a brief overview of the current knowledge on the underlying physiology and pathophysiology of asthma and focuses on the preoperative assessment and management in children with asthma. This also includes preoperative strategies to optimize lung function of asthmatic children undergoing surgery. The second part of this review focuses on the immediate perioperative anesthetic management including ventilation strategies. Multiple observational trials assessing perioperative respiratory adverse events in healthy and asthmatic children provide the basis for identifying risk factors in the patient's (family) history that aid the preoperative identification of at-risk children. Asthma treatment outside anesthesia is well founded on a large body of evidence. Optimization and to some extent intensifying asthma treatment can optimize lung function, reduce bronchial hyperreactivity, and minimize the risk of perioperative respiratory adverse events. To minimize the considerable risk of perioperative respiratory adverse events in asthmatic children, a good understanding of the underlying physiology is vital. Furthermore, a thorough preoperative assessment to identify children who may benefit of an intensified medical treatment thereby minimizing airflow obstruction and bronchial hyperreactivity is the first pillar of a preventive perioperative management of asthmatic children. The second pillar, an individually adjusted anesthesia management aiming to reduce perioperative adverse events, is discussed in the second part of this review.

  12. Defining the role of risk assessment in the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) remedial investigation process at the DOE-OR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, P.D.; McGinn, C.W.; Purucker, S.T.; White, R.K.

    1994-08-01

    The risk assessment strategy that will be implemented on the Oak Ridge Reservation has been standardized to ensure consistency and technical defensibility in all risk assessment activities and is presented within this document. The strategy emphasizes using existing environmental data in screening risk analyses to aid in identifying chemicals of potential concern, operable units that could pursue a no further investigation determination, and operable units that may warrant early response actions. The screening risk analyses include a comparison of measured chemical concentrations to preliminary remediation goals, performing a most likely exposure and integration point assessment, and performing a screening ecological risk assessment. This document focuses heavily on the screening risk analyses and relies on existing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency risk assessment guidance to provide specific details on conducting baseline risk assessments. However, the document does contain a section on the baseline risk assessment process that details the exposure pathways to be evaluated on the Oak Ridge Reservation. This document will be used in conjunction with existing Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. Environmental Restoration risk assessment standards, policies, procedures, and technical memoranda. The material contained herein will be periodically updated as the strategy is tried and tested and as the risk assessment methodology is revised. The primary purpose for this document is to present the proposed strategy to the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IV and receive concurrence or additional comments on the material presented herein

  13. Establishing a family risk assessment clinic for breast cancer.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Mulsow, Jurgen

    2012-02-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting European women and the leading cause of cancer-related death. A total of 15-20% of women who develop breast cancer have a family history and 5-10% a true genetic predisposition. The identification and screening of women at increased risk may allow early detection of breast cancer and improve prognosis. We established a family risk assessment clinic in May 2005 to assess and counsel women with a family history of breast cancer, to initiate surveillance, and to offer risk-reducing strategies for selected high-risk patients. Patients at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer according to NICE guidelines were accepted. Family history was determined by structured questionnaire and interview. Lifetime risk of developing breast cancer was calculated using Claus and Tyrer-Cuzick scoring. Risk of carrying a breast cancer-related gene mutation was calculated using the Manchester system. One thousand two hundred and forty-three patients have been referred. Ninety-two percent were at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer. Formal assessment of risk has been performed in 368 patients, 73% have a high lifetime risk of developing breast cancer, and 72% a Manchester score >or=16. BRCA1\\/2 mutations have been identified in 14 patients and breast cancer diagnosed in two. Our initial experience of family risk assessment has shown there to be a significant demand for this service. Identification of patients at increased risk of developing breast cancer allows us to provide individuals with accurate risk profiles, and enables patients to make informed choices regarding their follow-up and management.

  14. HIV and smoking: associated risks and prevention strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kariuki W

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Wanjiku Kariuki,1 Jennifer I Manuel,2 Ngaruiya Kariuki,3 Ellen Tuchman,2 Johnnie O'Neal,4 Genevieve A Lalanne2 1University of Texas School of Public Health, Department of Management, Policy, and Community Health, Houston, TX, 2Silver School of Social Work, New York University, New York, 3Internal Medicine Department, Maimonides Medical Center, Brooklyn, 4Department of Social Work, The College of New Rochelle, New Rochelle, NY, USA Abstract: High rates of smoking among persons living with HIV (PLWH may reduce the effectiveness of HIV treatment and contribute to significant morbidity and mortality. Factors associated with smoking in PLWH include mental health comorbidity, alcohol and drug use, health-related quality of life, smoking among social networks and supports, and lack of access to care. PLWH smokers are at a higher risk of numerous HIV-associated infections and non-HIV related morbidity, including a decreased response to antiretroviral treatment, impaired immune functioning, reduced cognitive functioning, decreased lung functioning, and cardiovascular disease. Seventeen smoking cessation interventions were identified, of which seven were randomized controlled trials. The most effective studies combined behavioral and pharmacotherapy treatments that incorporated comprehensive assessments, multiple sessions, and cognitive-behavioral and motivational strategies. Smoking cessation interventions that are tailored to the unique needs of diverse samples and incorporate strategies to reduce the risk of relapse are essential to advancing health outcomes in PLWH. Keywords: HIV, AIDS, smoking, health risks, smoking cessation interventions

  15. Factors for assessment of human health risk associated with remedial action at hazardous waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephenson, D.E.; King, C.M.; Looney, B.B.; Holmes, W.G.; Gordon, D.E.

    1985-01-01

    A risk assessment strategy that is cost effective and minimized human health risks was developed for closure of hazardous waste sites at the Savannah River Plant. The strategy consists of (1) site characterization, (2) contaminant transport modeling, and (3) determination of relative merits of alternative remedial actions according to the degree of health protection they provide

  16. Analysis Community’s Coping Strategies and Local Risk Governance Framework in Relation to Landslide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heru Setiawan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of people perception and analysis of the coping strategy to landslides are the two elements that are es-sential to determine the level of preparedness of communities to landslides. To know the preparedness of government and other stakeholders in facing landslide, the analysis risk governance framework was required. A survey using questionnaires with random sampling was applied to assess the level of people perception and people coping strategy related to landslide. Analysis of risk governance frame work was done at the district and sub-district level. ἀe study found that people perception related with landslide dominated by high and moderate level. Age and education are two factors that inḀuence the people’s perception to landslide. Local people applied four types coping strategy, which are: economic, structural, social and cultural coping strategy. Totally, 51.6% respondents have high level, 33.3% have moderate level and only 15.1% respondents that have low level of coping strategy. ἀe factors that inḀuence the level of coping strategy are education, income and building type.  Analysis of risk governance framework is limited to the three components including stakeholder involvement, risk management and risk communication. Based on the data analysis, the level of stakeholder involvement at the district scope was categorized on the moderate till high and the level of stakeholder involvement at sub-district level was categorized on the high level. Generally, the risk management of Karanganyar was categorized on the moderate level and high level and the risk management in Tawangmangu was categorized on the moderate level. ἀere are some elements must be improved on the risk governance framework, those are data management, the pattern of relationships among stakeholders, increased participation of NGOs, constructed and updated landslide risk map, enhancement of microᴀnance role in helping the com-munity when disaster strikes

  17. The importance of data collection for timely and accurate risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilsenan, MB

    2017-09-01

    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is responsible for food safety risk assessments at EU level. It provides independent scientific advice on risks associated with the food chain to support EU risk management decisions. Since its establishment, EFSA has amassed a wealth of data to underpin its risk assessments, such as food consumption data, monitoring data and experimental data. Increasing transparency of its risk assessments is a core objective of EFSA. EFSA aims to enhance the quality and transparency of its outputs by giving insofar as possible access to data and methods underpinning its scientific outputs. This paper provides an overview of the role of EFSA, its core data collections and their regulatory framework, as well as data quality and standardisation aspects. Finally, the paper elaborates on EFSA’s 2020 strategy in relation to data, and describes EFSA scientific data warehouse and Knowledge Junction in this regard.

  18. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  19. Proceedings of the NOAMI workshop : a workshop to explore perspectives on risk assessment for orphaned and abandoned mines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-03-01

    This workshop hosted by the National Orphaned/Abandoned Mines Initiative (NOAMI) discussed risk assessment strategies and perspectives for orphaned and abandoned mines in Canada. Different perspectives related to the risk assessment process were considered by participants from local, provincial, federal, and territorial agencies as well as non-governmental, academic, and mining industry organizations. Strategies for effectively communicating with local communities were discussed. New methods of assessing risk related to bioavailability and bioaccessibility were reviewed along with approaches to risk assessment and risk management in relation to the Environmental Management Act. Case studies of risk assessment and remediation projects were presented. The workshop presentations were divided into the following 6 sessions: (1) keynote, (2) opening panel, (3) human health panel, (4) ecological panel, (5) geotechnical-safety risk assessment panel, and (6) case studies and perspectives. The workshop featured 22 presentations, of which 2 have been catalogued separately for inclusion in this database. A report on detailed ecological risk assessment (DERA) in British Columbia prepared by the Science Advisory Board for Contaminated Sites in British Columbia (BC) was included, as well as a final report that summarized presentations given at the workshop. refs., tabs., figs

  20. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  1. Risk-Based Maintenance Assessment in the Manufacturing Industry: Minimisation of Suboptimal Prioritisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratnayake R.M. Chandima

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Manufacturing firms continuously strive to increase the efficiency and effectiveness in the maintenance management processes. Focus is placed on eliminating the unexpected failures which cause unnecessary costs and the production losses. Risk-based maintenance (RBM strategies enable to address the above through the identification of probability and consequences of potential failures whilst providing a way for prioritisation of maintenance actions based on the risk of possible failures. Such prioritisations enable to identify the optimal maintenance strategy, intervals of maintenance tasks, and optimal level of spare parts inventory. However, the risk assessment activities are performed with the support of a risk matrix. Suboptimal classifications and/or prioritisations arise due to the inherent nature of the risk matrix. This is caused by the fact that there are no means to incorporate actual circumstances at the boundary of the input ranges or at the levels of linguistic data and risk categories. In this paper, a risk matrix is first developed in collaboration with one of the manufacturing firms in Poland. Then, it illustrates the use of fuzzy logic for minimisation of suboptimal prioritisation and/or classifications using a fuzzy inference system (FIS together with illustrative membership functions and a rule base. Finally, an illustrative risk assessment is also demonstrated to illustrate the methodology.

  2. Critical analysis of frameworks and approaches to assess the environmental risks of nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    and approaches which have been developed or proposed by large organizations or regulatory bodies for NM. These frameworks and approaches were evaluated and assessed based on a select number of criteria which have been previously proposed as important parameters for inclusion in successful risk assessment......7.1.7 Critical analysis of frameworks and approaches to assess the environmental risks of nanomaterials Khara D. Grieger1, Igor Linkov2, Steffen Foss Hansen1, Anders Baun1 1Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark 2Environmental Laboratory, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Brookline, USA...... Email: kdg@env.dtu.dk Scientists, organizations, governments, and policy-makers are currently involved in reviewing, adapting, and formulating risk assessment frameworks and strategies to understand and assess the potential environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM). It is becoming...

  3. A generalised Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) for Real Time Control of urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vezzaro, Luca; Grum, Morten

    2014-01-01

    An innovative and generalised approach to the integrated Real Time Control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy aims to minimise the expected Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drai......An innovative and generalised approach to the integrated Real Time Control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy aims to minimise the expected Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored...... and their uncertainty contributed to further improving the performance of drainage systems. The results of this paper will contribute to the wider usage of global RTC methods in the management of urban drainage networks....

  4. Export strategy risks and governance in the clothing industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur Mapanga

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the export strategy implementation risks in Zimbabwe’s clothing sector with a view to build a framework for improving strategy implementation and governance. The government of Zimbabwe has formulated a five year export strategic blue-print to resuscitate the clothing value chain. However, to date, no visible movement towards implementing the export strategy has materialised. The sector is on the brink of collapse putting the welfare and livelihood of over two million people dependent on the sector at risk. A desk research and key informant interviews were conducted to understand the barriers causing inertia in the implementation of the export strategy. Cotton farmers’ unions’ representatives, the cotton ginners association members, the spinning industry members and garment manufacturers representatives, clothing retailers’ representatives, workers’ unions’ members and government officials were important sources of information towards the discovery of the risks. From the research, six of the strategy implementation risks were linked to human elements. Leadership, consensus and commitment deficiencies militated against the implementation of the export strategy in the clothing value chain. There is also a lack of trust among the value chain actors leading to the dislocation of efforts to resuscitate the sector

  5. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  6. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  7. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  8. Use of read-across and tiered exposure assessment in risk assessment under REACH - A case study on a phase-in substance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vink, S.R.; Mikkers, J.; Bouwman, T.; Marquart, H.; Kroese, E.D.

    2010-01-01

    REACH requests the exploration of alternative strategies for hazard identification before resorting to (in vivo) testing. Here, we combined read-across as non-testing strategy with a tiered exposure assessment for the risk characterisation of 1-methoxypropan-2-ol (PGME) as a representative for

  9. The contracting risks of nuclear power engineering and the risk management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Shuying

    2010-01-01

    With the trend of professional operation on the nuclear power engineering (thereafter using NPE for short) construction, the companies specialized on NPE whole-contracting are established one after the other, the mode of NPE whole-contracting has been wide adopted domestically. As people always concern for the safety of nuclear power, the risks exposed to NPE contractors are also concerned with the operator, the NPE corporations and the society. Therefore, it is very meaningful to analyze on the risks exposed to NPE contractors and the strategies they should take, for it not only determines whether the NPE construction will be finished on time, but also related to sustainable development of the NPE contracting corporations. The main content of this paper includes the analysis on the features and advantages of NPE whole contracting, the major NPE contracting risks, such as nuclear safety risks, strategic risks, market risks, legal risks, financial risks and operation risks, and the strategies to prevent or to control these risks. The paper focuses on identifying those business processes which risks may frequently take place, and how to manage them, illustrating practice cases to explain the theory, in order to make reference to NPE corporations. (author)

  10. An Assessment for A Filtered Containment Venting Strategy Using Decision Tree Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Hoyoung; Jae, Moosung

    2016-01-01

    In this study, a probabilistic assessment of the severe accident management strategy through a filtered containment venting system was performed by using decision tree models. In Korea, the filtered containment venting system has been installed for the first time in Wolsong unit 1 as a part of Fukushima follow-up steps, and it is planned to be applied gradually for all the remaining reactors. Filtered containment venting system, one of severe accident countermeasures, prevents a gradual pressurization of the containment building exhausting noncondensable gas and vapor to the outside of the containment building. In this study, a probabilistic assessment of the filtered containment venting strategy, one of the severe accident management strategies, was performed by using decision tree models. Containment failure frequencies of each decision were evaluated by the developed decision tree model. The optimum accident management strategies were evaluated by comparing the results. Various strategies in severe accident management guidelines (SAMG) could be improved by utilizing the methodology in this study and the offsite risk analysis methodology

  11. An Assessment for A Filtered Containment Venting Strategy Using Decision Tree Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Hoyoung; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    In this study, a probabilistic assessment of the severe accident management strategy through a filtered containment venting system was performed by using decision tree models. In Korea, the filtered containment venting system has been installed for the first time in Wolsong unit 1 as a part of Fukushima follow-up steps, and it is planned to be applied gradually for all the remaining reactors. Filtered containment venting system, one of severe accident countermeasures, prevents a gradual pressurization of the containment building exhausting noncondensable gas and vapor to the outside of the containment building. In this study, a probabilistic assessment of the filtered containment venting strategy, one of the severe accident management strategies, was performed by using decision tree models. Containment failure frequencies of each decision were evaluated by the developed decision tree model. The optimum accident management strategies were evaluated by comparing the results. Various strategies in severe accident management guidelines (SAMG) could be improved by utilizing the methodology in this study and the offsite risk analysis methodology.

  12. Aging and Cardiometabolic Risk in European HEMS Pilots: An Assessment of Occupational Old-Age Limits as a Regulatory Risk Management Strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Hans; Nowak, Dennis; Herbig, Britta

    2017-12-11

    Old-age limits are imposed in some occupations in an effort to ensure public safety. In aviation, the "Age 60 Rule" limits permissible flight operations conducted by pilots aged 60 and over. Using a retrospective cohort design, we assessed this rule's validity by comparing age-related change rates of cardiometabolic incapacitation risk markers in European helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) pilots near age 60 with those in younger pilots. Specifically, individual clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiogram (ECG)-based risk markers and an overall cardiovascular event risk score were determined from aeromedical examination records of 66 German, Austrian, Polish, and Czech HEMS pilots (average follow-up 8.52 years). Risk marker change rates were assessed using linear mixed models and generalized additive models. Body mass index increases over time were slower in pilots near age 60 compared to younger pilots, and fasting glucose levels increased only in the latter. Whereas the lipid profile remained unchanged in the latter, it improved in the former. An ECG-based arrhythmia risk marker increased in younger pilots, which persisted in the older pilots. Six-month risk of a fatal cardiovascular event (in or out of cockpit) was estimated between 0% and 0.3%. Between 41% and 95% of risk marker variability was due to unexplained time-stable between-person differences. To conclude, the cardiometabolic risk marker profile of HEMS pilots appears to improve over time in pilots near age 60, compared to younger pilots. Given large stable interindividual differences, we recommend individualized risk assessment of HEMS pilots near age 60 instead of general grounding. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid

  14. Coping strategies in individuals at risk and not at risk of mobile phone addiction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dziurzyńska Ewa

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to provide an answer to the question of whether, and what, differences in stress coping strategies could be found between university students at risk and those not at risk of mobile phone addiction. The study included 408 students aged 19 to 28 years. The following instruments were used: a sociodemographic questionnaire, the Mobile Phone Addiction Assessment Questionnaire (in Polish, Kwestionariusz do Badania Uzależnienia od Telefonu Komórkowego, KBUTK by Pawłowska and Potembska, and the Coping with Stress Questionnaire (SVF by Janke, Erdmann, and Boucsein, translated into Polish by Januszewska. The results of the study showed that individuals at risk of mobile phone addiction were more likely to cope with stress by seeking substitute gratification, reacting with resignation, passivity, dejection and hopelessness, blaming themselves, pitying themselves and looking for support. They also tended to ruminate over their suffering, withdraw from social interactions, react with aggression and/or take to drinking.

  15. Multicriteria Decision Framework for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganin, Alexander A; Quach, Phuoc; Panwar, Mahesh; Collier, Zachary A; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Marchese, Dayton; Linkov, Igor

    2017-09-05

    Risk assessors and managers face many difficult challenges related to novel cyber systems. Among these challenges are the constantly changing nature of cyber systems caused by technical advances, their distribution across the physical, information, and sociocognitive domains, and the complex network structures often including thousands of nodes. Here, we review probabilistic and risk-based decision-making techniques applied to cyber systems and conclude that existing approaches typically do not address all components of the risk assessment triplet (threat, vulnerability, consequence) and lack the ability to integrate across multiple domains of cyber systems to provide guidance for enhancing cybersecurity. We present a decision-analysis-based approach that quantifies threat, vulnerability, and consequences through a set of criteria designed to assess the overall utility of cybersecurity management alternatives. The proposed framework bridges the gap between risk assessment and risk management, allowing an analyst to ensure a structured and transparent process of selecting risk management alternatives. The use of this technique is illustrated for a hypothetical, but realistic, case study exemplifying the process of evaluating and ranking five cybersecurity enhancement strategies. The approach presented does not necessarily eliminate biases and subjectivity necessary for selecting countermeasures, but provides justifiable methods for selecting risk management actions consistent with stakeholder and decisionmaker values and technical data. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A.

  16. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  17. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojo, F J Romero; Roy, R; Kelly, S

    2012-01-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  18. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  19. Longitudinal Youth-At-Risk Study (LYRIKS): outreach strategies based on a community-engaged framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitter, Natasha; Nah, Guo Quan Ryan; Bong, Yioe Ling; Lee, Jimmy; Chong, Siow-Ann

    2014-08-01

    Schizophrenia and psychoses are debilitating disorders often leading to serious functional impairments. Early detection efforts have shifted focus to the prodromal phase and the emphasis is now on individuals at risk of developing psychosis. The Longitudinal Youth-At-Risk Study (LYRIKS) seeks to elucidate the biological markers of psychosis. This paper describes the application of a community-engaged framework to the outreach strategies of LYRIKS. It describes the outreach goals, strategies used and their impact, as well as the various challenges faced by the research team and community partners. The target population was defined. Community organizations having close ties with the target population were identified and approached for collaboration. These included educational and healthcare institutions, and government and welfare organizations. Strategies were categorized as active or passive. Active strategies included clinical screening and recruitment, workshops, roadshows and student internships. Passive strategies included utilizing print and social media. Three thousand three hundred twenty-one youth were approached and 401 called the hotline to find out more about the study. Three thousand five hundred one were pre-screened; 864 were further screened using the Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental State. One hundred seventy-eight and 346 were eventually recruited as subjects and controls, respectively. Challenges encountered included differing priorities, maintaining collaborative relationships, stigmatization and inadequate understanding of the profile of at risk youth. Future community-engaged research should be conducted more comprehensively to generate maximum benefits. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  20. Quantifying uncertainty in pest risk maps and assessments: adopting a risk-averse decision maker’s perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denys Yemshanov

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Pest risk maps are important decision support tools when devising strategies to minimize introductions of invasive organisms and mitigate their impacts. When possible management responses to an invader include costly or socially sensitive activities, decision-makers tend to follow a more certain (i.e., risk-averse course of action. We presented a new mapping technique that assesses pest invasion risk from the perspective of a risk-averse decision maker.We demonstrated the method by evaluating the likelihood that an invasive forest pest will be transported to one of the U.S. states or Canadian provinces in infested firewood by visitors to U.S. federal campgrounds. We tested the impact of the risk aversion assumption using distributions of plausible pest arrival scenarios generated with a geographically explicit model developed from data documenting camper travel across the study area. Next, we prioritized regions of high and low pest arrival risk via application of two stochastic ordering techniques that employed, respectively, first- and second-degree stochastic dominance rules, the latter of which incorporated the notion of risk aversion. We then identified regions in the study area where the pest risk value changed considerably after incorporating risk aversion.While both methods identified similar areas of highest and lowest risk, they differed in how they demarcated moderate-risk areas. In general, the second-order stochastic dominance method assigned lower risk rankings to moderate-risk areas. Overall, this new method offers a better strategy to deal with the uncertainty typically associated with risk assessments and provides a tractable way to incorporate decision-making preferences into final risk estimates, and thus helps to better align these estimates with particular decision-making scenarios about a pest organism of concern. Incorporation of risk aversion also helps prioritize the set of locations to target for inspections and

  1. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  2. Sustainability Assessment of Plant Protection Strategies in Swiss Winter Wheat and Potato Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrik Mouron

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Production of arable crops in Switzerland is subsidized for services performed within the Proof of Ecological Performance (PEP program, the crop protection part of which is based on IPM principles. Within PEP, chemical insect control must rely on those approved insecticides that are deemed harmless for beneficial arthropods. Approved insecticides potentially impacting beneficial arthropods may also be applied, but only if unavoidable and with an official permit. In order to assess the ecological and economic sustainability of this PEP program, a reference insecticide strategy illustrating the current PEP requirements was compared with other strategies. For this purpose, a sustainability assessment taking account of ecotoxicological risks and economic viability in addition to the preservation of beneficial arthropods was performed according to the SustainOS methodology. The results show that the one-off use of Audienz (spinosad to control cereal leaf beetle (Oulema melanopus—a key pest in winter wheat—would significantly improve sustainability vis-à-vis the reference (Nomolt (teflubenzuron plus Biscaya (thiacloprid. However, in the case of the Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, in potato crops, where Audienz is considered the reference, no alternative would exhibit better sustainability. Moreover, the study shows that strategies using Novodor (Bacillus thuringiensis protect beneficial species well but have the drawbacks of increased yield risk and higher costs. The conclusions drawn from these analyses allow recommendations for modifications of the PEP requirements for these two pest insects. The SustainOS methodology, a multi-step process combining expert knowledge with quantitative assessments including a sensitivity analysis of key target parameters and a rule-based aggregation of assessment results, yielded valuable insights into the sustainability of different crop protection strategies.

  3. Factsheets for the (eco)toxicological risk assessment strategy of the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luttik R; Raaij MTM van; CSR

    2001-01-01

    Eight fact sheets describing risk assessment methods used at the Centre of Substances and Risk assessment (CSR) of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) are presented here with the main aim of promoting greater transparency in the risk assessment methods used at the

  4. Cardiovascular risk assessment in type 2 diabetes mellitus: comparison of the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension risk prediction charts versus UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herath, Herath M Meththananda; Weerarathna, Thilak Priyantha; Umesha, Dilini

    2015-01-01

    Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at higher risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, and assessment of their cardiac risk is important for preventive strategies. The Ministry of Health of Sri Lanka has recommended World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts for cardiac risk assessment in individuals with T2DM. However, the most suitable cardiac risk assessment tool for Sri Lankans with T2DM has not been studied. This study was designed to evaluate the performance of two cardiac risk assessments tools; WHO/ISH charts and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Cardiac risk assessments were done in 2,432 patients with T2DM attending a diabetes clinic in Southern Sri Lanka using the two risk assessment tools. Validity of two assessment tools was further assessed by their ability to recognize individuals with raised low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and raised diastolic blood pressure in a cohort of newly diagnosed T2DM patients (n=332). WHO/ISH charts identified 78.4% of subjects as low cardiac risk whereas the UKPDS risk engine categorized 52.3% as low cardiac risk (Pengine identified higher proportions of patients (28%) compared to WHO/ISH charts (7%). Approximately 6% of subjects were classified as low cardiac risk (20%. Agreement between the two tools was poor (κ value =0.144, Pengine. Risk assessment by both assessment tools demonstrated poor sensitivity in identifying those with treatable levels of LDL cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure.

  5. Strategy for distribution of influenza vaccine to high-risk groups and children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth

    2005-02-15

    Despite evidence that vaccinating schoolchildren against influenza is effective in limiting community-level transmission, the United States has had a long-standing government strategy of recommending that vaccine be concentrated primarily in high-risk groups and distributed to those people who keep the health system and social infrastructure operating. Because of this year's influenza vaccine shortage, a plan was enacted to distribute the limited vaccine stock to these groups first. This vaccination strategy, based on direct protection of those most at risk, has not been very effective in reducing influenza morbidity and mortality. Although it is too late to make changes this year, the current influenza vaccine crisis affords the opportunity to examine an alternative for future years. The alternative plan, supported by mathematical models and influenza field studies, would be to concentrate vaccine in schoolchildren, the population group most responsible for transmission, while also covering the reachable high-risk groups, who would also receive considerable indirect protection. In conjunction with a plan to ensure an adequate vaccine supply, this alternative influenza vaccination strategy would help control interpandemic influenza and be instrumental in preparing for pandemic influenza. The effectiveness of the alternative plan could be assessed through nationwide community studies.

  6. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  7. Risk assessment guidance document for the UMTRA project groundwater remediation phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-05-01

    The purpose of the groundwater remedial activities at the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) sites is to reduce, control, or eliminate risks to human health and the environment. This is in accordance with Subpart B of 40 CFR 192. According to this regulation, the need for groundwater restoration is based upon US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-defined groundwater cleanup standards and must be consistent with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process. Risk assessments will be used in the UMTRA Groundwater Program to aid in the evaluation of sites. Risk assessments are conducted for four purposes: (1) Preliminary risk assessments are used to aid in prioritizing sites, scope data collection, end determine if a site presents immediate health risks. (2) Baseline risk assessments provide a comprehensive integration and interpretation of demographic, geographic, physical, chemical, and biological factors at a site to determine the extent of actual or potential harm. This information Is used to determine the need for remedial action. (3) Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives is performed to evaluate risks to humans or the environment associated with the various remedial strategies. (4) After remediation, an evaluation of residual risks is conducted. The information gathered for each of these risk evaluations is used to determine the need for subsequent evaluation. Several sites may be eliminated after a preliminary risk assessment if there is no current or future threat to humans or the environment. Likewise, much of the data from a baseline risk assessment can be used to support alternate concentration limits or supplemental standards demonstrations, or identify sensitive habitats or receptors that may be of concern in selecting a remedy

  8. Managing price risk - setting and implementing strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haines, D.

    1999-01-01

    The three hedging strategies for price risk management within the natural gas industry are described. The three strategies are: (1) speculative trader (characterized by 'trading for profit, i.e. small margin/large volumes); (2) price optimizer (the objective here is to outperform the market in the establishment of a price); and (3) strategic hedger( the characteristic concern in this strategy is to manage long-term company goals, i.e. balance sheet orientation). The strategies are not mutually exclusive, but overlapping areas can be the source of considerable confusion. Any firm can enter into more than one of these strategies. Integrated companies will adopt very different strategies for upstream versus downstream operations. Details of the three strategies are provided

  9. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  10. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  11. Ecological models in support of regulatory risk assessments of pesticides: developing a strategy for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Valery E; Hommen, Udo; Thorbek, Pernille; Heimbach, Fred; Van den Brink, Paul J; Wogram, Jörn; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Grimm, Volker

    2009-01-01

    This brief communication reports on the main findings of the LEMTOX workshop, held from 9 to 12 September 2007, at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Leipzig, Germany. The workshop brought together a diverse group of stakeholders from academia, regulatory authorities, contract research organizations, and industry, representing Europe, the United States, and Asia, to discuss the role of ecological modeling in risk assessments of pesticides, particularly under the European regulatory framework. The following questions were addressed: What are the potential benefits of using ecological models in pesticide registration and risk assessment? What obstacles prevent ecological modeling from being used routinely in regulatory submissions? What actions are needed to overcome the identified obstacles? What recommendations should be made to ensure good modeling practice in this context? The workshop focused exclusively on population models, and discussion was focused on those categories of population models that link effects on individuals (e.g., survival, growth, reproduction, behavior) to effects on population dynamics. The workshop participants concluded that the overall benefits of ecological modeling are that it could bring more ecology into ecological risk assessment, and it could provide an excellent tool for exploring the importance of, and interactions among, ecological complexities. However, there are a number of challenges that need to be overcome before such models will receive wide acceptance for pesticide risk assessment, despite having been used extensively in other contexts (e.g., conservation biology). The need for guidance on Good Modeling Practice (on model development, analysis, interpretation, evaluation, documentation, and communication), as well as the need for case studies that can be used to explore the added value of ecological models for risk assessment, were identified as top priorities. Assessing recovery potential of exposed

  12. Guidelines on the scope, content, and use of comprehensive risk assessment in the management of high-level nuclear waste transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golding, D.; White, A.

    1990-12-01

    This report discusses the scope of risk assessment strategies in the management of the transport of high-level radioactive wastes. In spite of the shortcomings of probabilistic risk assessment(PRA), the Transportation Needs Assessment recommended this as the preferred methodology to assess the risks of high level nuclear waste (HLNW) transportation. A PRA also will need to heed the lessons learned from the development and application of PRA elsewhere, such as in the nuclear power industry. A set of guidelines will aid this endeavor by outlining the appropriate scope, content, and use of a risk assessment which is more responsive to the uncertainties, human-technical interactions, social forces, and iterative relationship with risk management strategies, than traditional PRAS. This more expansive definition, which encompasses but is not totally reliant on rigorous data requirements and quantitative probability estimates, we term Comprehensive Risk Assessment (CRA) Guidelines will be developed in three areas: the limitations of existing methodologies and suggested modifications; CRA as part of a flexible, effective, adaptive risk management system for HLNW transportation; and, the use of CRA in risk communication

  13. Comparative Analysis of Supply Risk-Mitigation Strategies for Critical Byproduct Minerals: A Case Study of Tellurium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustamante, Michele L; Gaustad, Gabrielle; Alonso, Elisa

    2018-01-02

    Materials criticality assessment is a screening framework increasingly applied to identify materials of importance that face scarcity risks. Although these assessments highlight materials for the implicit purpose of informing future action, the aggregated nature of their findings make them difficult to use for guidance in developing nuanced mitigation strategy and policy response. As a first step in the selection of mitigation strategies, the present work proposes a modeling framework and accompanying set of metrics to directly compare strategies by measuring effectiveness of risk reduction as a function of the features of projected supply demand balance over time. The work focuses on byproduct materials, whose criticality is particularly important to understand because their supplies are inherently less responsive to market balancing forces, i.e., price feedbacks. Tellurium, a byproduct of copper refining, which is critical to solar photovoltaics, is chosen as a case study, and three commonly discussed byproduct-relevant strategies are selected: dematerialization of end-use product, byproduct yield improvement, and end-of-life recycling rate improvement. Results suggest that dematerialization will be nearly twice as effective at reducing supply risk as the next best option, yield improvement. Finally, due to its infrequent use at present and its dependence upon long product lifespans, recycling end-of-life products is expected to be the least effective option despite potentially offering other benefits (e.g., cost savings and environmental impact reduction).

  14. Cancer risks: Strategies for elimination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bannasch, P.

    1987-01-01

    This book deals with the possibilities for identifying and eliminating cancer risk factors. The current state of knowledge on the detection, assessment and elimination of chemical, physical (radiation), and biological (viruses) risk factors are comprehensively presented in 15 contributions. Chemical risk factors resulting from smoking and environmental contamination are given special attention. The coverage of cancer risks by radiation includes some of the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster. Finally, the discussion of the possible risks that certain viruses hold for cancer in man is intended to further the development of vaccinations against these viral infections. The information is directed not only at specialists, but also at a wider interested audience. Its primary aim is to convey established findings that are already being used for cancer prevention. Furthermore, the book aims to promote more intense research in the field of primary cancer prevention. Contents: General aspects; chemical carcinogens: Risk assessment; chemical carcinogens: Primary prevention; physical carcinogens - Oncogenic viruses and subject index

  15. Managing the unmanageable: risk assessment and risk management in contemporary professional practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raven, J; Rix, P

    1999-07-01

    This study sets out to investigate the theories and practices of risk assessment and management in the context of contemporary mental health practice. Although risk assessment and management policies are well established for those working in the field of community mental health care, there are noticeable anomalies and regional variations, in the criteria, procedures and decision-making strategies used. Focus group taped interviews were conducted with over 100 mental health professionals in one NHS Trust. These were compared with an extensive literature review on the topic. The main theme to emerge was lack of resources, which included time and staff in the context of a changing and increasing workload. Another important theme was the lack of access to centralized and accurate information about mental health service provision. It is essential that professionals, clients, their families and the public feel confident in professional judgements and practices to avoid a 'back to the asylum' lobby, for the care and treatment of seriously mentally ill individuals.

  16. Reflecting Societal Values in Designing Flood Risk Management Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adamson Mark

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2006, the Office of Public Works (OPW began the National Catchment-based Flood Risk Assessment and Management (CFRAM Programme through a series of pilot studies. A Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA Framework was developed through the pilot studies that integrated a number of objectives related to a wide range of potential impacts and benefits into the core of process of appraising and selecting suitable flood risk management measures for a given area or location, and then for prioritising national investments for different schemes and projects. This MCA Framework, that provides a systematic process of developing a non-monetised but numerical indicator of benefit and impact, has since been implemented nationally in the preparation of the Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs. A key feature of the MCA is that it should represent societal values. To this end, nationally representative quantitative research was undertaken to determine global weights that reflect the perceived importance of each of the objectives for reducing economic, social and environmental / cultural risks in flood management strategies. Saaty’s Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP, in conjunction with a pair-wise comparison of criteria relating to these risks, was utilised to determine weights. In excess of 1,000 structured interviews were completed where the relative importance of these objectives were assessed using a seven-point scale. The weighting given to each of the 13 specific objectives identified broadly followed expectations, with risk to people followed by risk to homes and properties being respectively the first and second most important, although some were given greater or less weighting than expected. The national application of the MCA Framework, using the weighted objectives based on this process, through the CFRAM Programme has generally lead to the identification of appropriate and, based on local consultation, acceptable options for each community.

  17. Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a middle-income country and estimated cost of a treatment strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Anne

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We assessed the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD in a middle-income country in rapid epidemiological transition and estimated direct costs for treating all individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, i.e. following the so-called "high risk strategy". Methods Survey of risk factors using an age- and sex-stratified random sample of the population of Seychelles aged 25–64 in 2004. Assessment of CVD risk and treatment modalities were in line with international guidelines. Costs are expressed as US$ per capita per year. Results 1255 persons took part in the survey (participation rate of 80.2%. Prevalence of main risk factors was: 39.6% for high blood pressure (≥140/90 mmHg or treatment of which 59% were under treatment; 24.2% for high cholesterol (≥6.2 mmol/l; 20.8% for low HDL-cholesterol (2 and 22.1% for the metabolic syndrome. Overall, 43% had HBP, high cholesterol or diabetes and substantially increased CVD risk. The cost for medications needed to treat all high-risk individuals amounted to US $45.6, i.e. $11.2 for high blood pressure, $3.8 for diabetes, and $30.6 for dyslipidemia (using generic drugs except for hypercholesterolemia. Cost for minimal follow-up medical care and laboratory tests amounted to $22.6. Conclusion High prevalence of major risk factors was found in a rapidly developing country and costs for treatment needed to reduce risk factors in all high-risk individuals exceeded resources generally available in low or middle income countries. Our findings emphasize the need for affordable cost-effective treatment strategies and the critical importance of population strategies aimed at reducing risk factors in the entire population.

  18. A novel safety assessment strategy applied to non-selective extracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Sander; Leeman, Winfried; Verheij, Elwin; Dutman, Ellen; van Stee, Leo; Nielsen, Lene Munch; Ronsmans, Stefan; Noteborn, Hub; Krul, Lisette

    2015-06-01

    A main challenge in food safety research is to demonstrate that processing of foodstuffs does not lead to the formation of substances for which the safety upon consumption might be questioned. This is especially so since food is a complex matrix in which the analytical detection of substances, and consequent risk assessment thereof, is difficult to determine. Here, a pragmatic novel safety assessment strategy is applied to the production of non-selective extracts (NSEs), used for different purposes in food such as for colouring purposes, which are complex food mixtures prepared from reference juices. The Complex Mixture Safety Assessment Strategy (CoMSAS) is an exposure driven approach enabling to efficiently assess the safety of the NSE by focussing on newly formed substances or substances that may increase in exposure during the processing of the NSE. CoMSAS enables to distinguish toxicologically relevant from toxicologically less relevant substances, when related to their respective levels of exposure. This will reduce the amount of work needed for identification, characterisation and safety assessment of unknown substances detected at low concentration, without the need for toxicity testing using animal studies. In this paper, the CoMSAS approach has been applied for elderberry and pumpkin NSEs used for food colouring purposes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Coping strategies, stress and risk perception in a natural and industrial catastrophe risk situation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez Vasquez, E.

    1998-01-01

    People are exposed to different environmental risks, their manifestations harm people according to the magnitude, intensity and the number of people concerned. This subject is very ample, therefore we consider only two kinds of risks: the natural risks (especially earthquakes) that have always threatened humanity, and the industrial risks that characterise our modern society. We are interested in risk perception, stress and coping strategies in these two kinds of extreme situations. We concentrate our study on two Mexican events: an industrial explosion accident in 1984 and 1985 (big earthquake, both devastated big urban zones. The consequences were enormous at all levels: personal, psychological, social, political and economical. Facing risk situations people can have stress reactions when a sign of danger appears. According to Jean RIVOLIER (1994), these situations must not be confounded with banal events of everyday life. Stress in those cases is not the stress we confront everyday, so people have to apply other strategies to face she stress and the incidents of the kind of extreme situations. To tackle our subject we are going to review some concepts used in our study: stress, coping strategies and risk perception. (author)

  20. Approved Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act of 2007 gave FDA the authority to require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) from manufacturers to...

  1. Practical consequences of the assessment of different energy health risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1984-01-01

    Public authorities must make decisions about energy, and the risks of alternative strategies need to be calculated including health and environmental costs. Information from various sources must be organized into a logical framework for comparing impacts. This must include the widest practicable range of health and environmental damage - public health impact of pollution, role of accidents, disease and hazardous materials in the workplace, and odds for catastrophes. It must put each part of the energy cycle into perspective - giving particular attention to uncertainties in knowledge - to convey what is known, what is uncertain, and the importance of each factor in the overall picture. This paper gives examples of the use of health-impact assessment by decision-makers: (1) comparative risk assessment of the health effects of coal and nuclear fuel cycles used in nuclear power plant siting and licensing hearings, and (2) health risks of acid deposition and other air-transported pollutants, carried out as part of an assessment for the U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment. (author)

  2. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  3. PETRORISK: a risk assessment framework for petroleum substances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redman, Aaron D; Parkerton, Thomas F; Comber, Mike H I; Paumen, Miriam Leon; Eadsforth, Charles V; Dmytrasz, Bhodan; King, Duncan; Warren, Christopher S; den Haan, Klaas; Djemel, Nadia

    2014-07-01

    PETRORISK is a modeling framework used to evaluate environmental risk of petroleum substances and human exposure through these routes due to emissions under typical use conditions as required by the European regulation for the Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH). Petroleum substances are often complex substances comprised of hundreds to thousands of individual hydrocarbons. The physicochemical, fate, and effects properties of the individual constituents within a petroleum substance can vary over several orders of magnitude, complicating risk assessment. PETRORISK combines the risk assessment strategies used on single chemicals with the hydrocarbon block approach to model complex substances. Blocks are usually defined by available analytical characterization data on substances that are expressed in terms of mass fractions for different structural chemical classes that are specified as a function of C number or boiling point range. The physicochemical and degradation properties of the blocks are determined by the properties of representative constituents in that block. Emissions and predicted exposure concentrations (PEC) are then modeled using mass-weighted individual representative constituents. Overall risk for various environmental compartments at the regional and local level is evaluated by comparing the PECs for individual representative constituents to corresponding predicted no-effect concentrations (PNEC) derived using the Target Lipid Model. Risks to human health are evaluated using the overall predicted human dose resulting from multimedia environmental exposure to a substance-specific derived no-effect level (DNEL). A case study is provided to illustrate how this modeling approach has been applied to assess the risks of kerosene manufacture and use as a fuel. © 2014 SETAC.

  4. Risk evaluation and mitigation strategies: a focus on belatacept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sam, Teena; Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

    2013-03-01

    To review the elements and components of the risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) for the costimulation blocker belatacept and associated implications for health care providers working with transplant recipients. The MEDLINE and EMBASE databases (January 1990 to March 2012) were searched by using risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, belatacept, and organ transplant as search terms (individual organs were also searched). Retrieved articles were supplemented with analysis of information obtained from the Federal Register, the Food and Drug Administration, and the manufacturer of belatacept. REMS are risk-management strategies implemented to ensure that a product's benefits outweigh its known safety risks. Although belatacept offers a novel strategy in maintenance immunosuppression and was associated with superior renal function compared with cyclosporine in phase 2 and 3 trials, belatacept is also associated with increased risk of posttransplant lymphoproliferative disorder and central nervous system infections. The Food and Drug Administration required development of a REMS program as part of belatacept's approval process to ensure safe and appropriate use of the medication and optimization of its risk-benefit profile. Elements of the belatacept REMS include a medication guide that must be dispensed with each infusion and a communication plan. In the management of a complex population of patients, it is essential that those who care for transplant recipients, and patients, recognize the implications of potential and known risks of belatacept. The REMS program aims to facilitate careful selection and education of patients and vigilant monitoring.

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  6. The alignment of organisation strategy and risk appetite in the financial services industry

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    M.Com. (Business Management) This study concerns itself with the concepts of strategy, risk management and risk appetite. Strategy and risk management playa very important role in any business, but it is very difficult to determine the interrelationship between strategy and risk. There is no scientific/academic proof and there is no model or framework on what the alignment between an organisation's strategy and risk appetite is. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a risk app...

  7. A framework for the assessment of severe accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.; Okrent, D.; Jae, M.; Lim, H.; Milici, T.; Park, H.; Swider, J.; Xing, L.; Yu, D.

    1992-01-01

    Accident management can be defined as the innovative use of existing and or alternative resources, systems and actions to prevent or mitigate a severe accident. Together with risk management (changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-in-depth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) have been completed which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These considerations include uncertainty in key phenomena, uncertainty in operator behavior, uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and uncertainty in available information (i.e., instrumentation). The objective of this project is to develop a methodology for assessing severe accident management strategies given the key uncertainties mentioned above. Based on decision trees and influence diagrams, the methodology is currently being applied to two case studies: cavity flooding in a pressurized water reactor to prevent vessel penetration or failure, and drywell flooding in a boiling water reactor to prevent containment failure

  8. Diagnosis and treatment strategies of thrombophilic risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Albayrak

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Thrombophilia is defined as the general name for a group of genetic and acquired situations, arising from defects of hemostasis mechanism and generating tendency to thrombosis. Examples of the acquired risk factors that increase the tendency to thrombosis are venous catheters, sepsis, surgery, hyperlipidemia, congestive heart disease, increased lipoprotein a, old age, antiphospholipid syndrome, nephrotic syndrome, hyperviscosity, chronic myeloproliferative neoplasms, paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria, heparin induced thrombocytopenia, vasculitis, immobility, obesity, major surgery, trauma, burns, malignancy, pregnancy and oral contraceptive usage. Genetic tendency to venous thromboembolism in early ages, even without any known cause, is named as thrombophilia. Factor V Leiden, prothrombin G20210A, methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase gene mutations, factor VIII elevation, protein C, protein S and antithrombin deficiency parameters are suggested for evaluation, in patient groups suspected of inherited thrombophilia. Detection of inherited thrombophilic factors in selected patient groups is a guide in developing treatment strategies and in establishing prognosis. Due to the genetic heterogeneities, each society should determine their thrombophilic risk pool. Thus, with the determination of the risk factors, unnecessary assessments will be prevented and a cost-effective approach can be developed.

  9. Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kok, Jean-Luc; Grossmann, M.

    2010-01-01

    The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river. We present an example of a rapid flood risk

  10. Psychological impact of family history risk assessment in primary care: a mixed methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birt, Linda; Emery, Jon D; Prevost, A Toby; Sutton, Stephen; Walter, Fiona M

    2014-08-01

    Routine family history risk assessment for chronic diseases could enable primary care practitioners to efficiently identify at-risk patients and promote preventive management strategies. To investigate patients' understanding and responses to family history risk assessment in primary care. A mixed methods study set in 10 Eastern England general practices. Participants in a family history questionnaire validation study were triaged into population or increased risk for four chronic diseases (type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer, colorectal cancer). Questionnaires completed immediately prior to the family history consultation (baseline) and 4 weeks later (follow-up) assessed the psychological impact, including State-Trait Anxiety Inventory scores. Semi-structured interviews explored the meaning participants gave to their personal familial disease risk. Four hundred and fifty-three participants completed both baseline and follow-up questionnaires and 30 were interviewed. At follow-up, there was no increase in anxiety among either group, or differences between the groups [difference in mean change 0.02, 95% confidence interval -2.04, 2.08, P = 0.98]. There were no significant changes over time in self-rated health in either group. At follow-up, participants at increased risk (n = 153) were more likely to have recent changes to behaviour and they had stronger intentions to make changes to diet (P = 0.001), physical activity (P = 0.006) and to seek further information in the future than those at population risk (n = 300; P assessment for familial risk of chronic diseases may be undertaken in primary care without causing anxiety or reducing self-rated health. Patient responses to family history risk assessment may inform promotion of preventive management strategies. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. SIMONI (smart integrated monitoring) as a novel bioanalytical strategy for water quality assessment : Part i–model design and effect-based trigger values

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Oost, Ron; Sileno, Giulia; Suárez-Muñoz, Maria; Nguyen, Mai Thao; Besselink, Harrie; Brouwer, Abraham

    2017-01-01

    It is virtually impossible to reliably assess water quality with target chemical analyses only. Therefore, a complementary effect-based risk assessment by bioanalyses on mixtures of bioavailable micropollutants is proposed: the Smart Integrated Monitoring (SIMONI) strategy. The goal of this strategy

  12. [Risk assessment and control strategies of pests in Lycium barbarum fields under different managements].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zi-Hua; Zhang, Rong; He, Da-Han; Wang, Fang; Zhang, Ting-Ting; Zhang, Zong-Shan

    2009-04-01

    In the risk assessment of pests, both the community structure and the environmental factors should be considered at the same time, because of their mutual effects on the outbreak of disaster pests. This paper established a comprehensive assessment system, including 2 sub-systems, 5 respects, and 14 indices. In the meanwhile, risk assessment indices and experience formula were used to analyze the risk degree of pests in Lycium barbarum fields under different managements. It was found that using risk assessment indices and experience formula could obtain similar results. In abandoned field, Aceria palida, Aphis sp., and Paratrioza sinica were the frequent disaster pests, Lema decempunctata, Neoceratitis asiatica, Jaapiella sp., and Phthorimaea sp. were the incidental disaster pests, and Psylliodes obscurofaciata and Phthorimaea sp. were general pests. In organic field, the frequent disaster pests were the same species as those in abandoned field, while P. indicus, Jaapiella sp. and Phthorimaea sp. were the incidental disaster pests. In chemical control field, A. palida, Aphis sp., P. sinica, and P. indicus were the frequent disaster pests, while Jaapiella sp. and Phthorimaea sp. were the incidental disaster pests. Optimal 5 separations most fitted the division of pest sub-communities in L. barbarum fields, which were infancy period (from March 28 to April 15), outbreak I period (from April 15 to July 18), dormancy period (from July 18 to September 8), outbreak II period (from September 8 to October 15), and recession period (after October 15). The matrix of correlation coefficient showed that the dynamics of pests in L. barbarum fields under different managements were significantly correlated with each other, suggesting that the dynamics of pest populations was similar in different L. barbarum fields, which had two population establishment stages and one exponential growth stage in every year. The optimal controlling stages were from late infancy period to early and

  13. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  14. Posters as assessment strategies: focusing on service users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawley, Loretta; Frazer, Kate

    This article debates whether posters as an assessment strategy in health professionals' education programmes can benefit learners, academics, and service users. Evidence suggests that service-user involvement benefits learning by developing students' communication, partnership and advocacy skills. The authors debate the value of posters as an assessment strategy in postgraduate diploma nursing programmes delivered in an Irish School of Nursing, Midwifery and Health Systems. It is argued that assessment strategies should not only examine programme theory and practice but should also benefit the people that will be using the service. Although the assessment strategy used in these programmes aimed to benefit service users, additional work is required for assessment to be truly inclusive of service users.

  15. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  16. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  17. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  18. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  19. Identification and assessment of containment and release management strategies for a BWR Mark III containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, C.C.; Lehner, J.R.; Vandenkieboom, J.J.

    1992-02-01

    This report identifies and assesses accident management strategies which could be important for preventing containment failure and/or mitigating the release of fission products during a severe accident in a BWR plant with a Mark III type of containment. Based on information available from probabilistic risk assessments and other existing severe accident research, and using simplified containment and release event trees, the report identifies the challenges a Mark III containment could face during the course of a severe accident, the mechanisms behind these challenges, and the strategies that could be used to mitigate the challenges. The strategies are linked to the general safety objectives which apply for containment and release management by means of a safety objective tree. The strategies were assessed by applying them to certain severe accident sequence categories deemed important for a Mark III containment because of one or more of the following characteristics: high probability of core damage, high consequences, lead to a number of challenges, and involve the failure of multiple systems

  20. Identification and assessment of containment and release management strategies for a BWR Mark I containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, C.C.; Lehner, J.R.

    1991-09-01

    This report identifies and assesses accident management strategies which could be important for preventing containment failure and/or mitigating the release of fission products during a severe accident in a BWR plant with a Mark 1 type of containment. Based on information available from probabilistic risk assessments and other existing severe accident research, and using simplified containment and release event trees, the report identifies the challenges a Mark 1 containment could face during the course of a severe accident, the mechanisms behind these challenges, and the strategies that could be used to mitigate the challenges. A safety objective tree is developed which provides the connection between the safety objectives, the safety functions, the challenges, and the strategies. The strategies were assessed by applying them to certain severe accident sequence categories which have one or more of the following characteristics: have high probability of core damage or high consequences, lead to a number of challenges, and involve the failure of multiple systems. 59 refs., 55 figs., 27 tabs

  1. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  2. Probabilistic assessment of roadway departure risk in a curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, G.; Clair, D.; Fogli, M.; Bernardin, F.

    2011-10-01

    Roadway departure while cornering constitutes a major part of car accidents and casualties in France. Even though drastic policy about overspeeding contributes to reduce accidents, there obviously exist other factors. This article presents the construction of a probabilistic strategy for the roadway departure risk assessment. A specific vehicle dynamic model is developed in which some parameters are modelled by random variables. These parameters are deduced from a sensitivity analysis to ensure an efficient representation of the inherent uncertainties of the system. Then, structural reliability methods are employed to assess the roadway departure risk in function of the initial conditions measured at the entrance of the curve. This study is conducted within the French national road safety project SARI that aims to implement a warning systems alerting the driver in case of dangerous situation.

  3. Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, Vickie S., E-mail: wilson.vickie@epa.gov [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Keshava, Nagalakshmi [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Hester, Susan [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Euling, Susan Y. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment.

  4. Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, Vickie S.; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Hester, Susan; Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh; Thompson, Chad M.; Euling, Susan Y.

    2013-01-01

    The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment

  5. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  6. Systems Toxicology: From Basic Research to Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Systems Toxicology is the integration of classical toxicology with quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Society demands increasingly close scrutiny of the potential health risks associated with exposure to chemicals present in our everyday life, leading to an increasing need for more predictive and accurate risk-assessment approaches. Developing such approaches requires a detailed mechanistic understanding of the ways in which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to adverse outcomes. Thus, Systems Toxicology approaches offer modern strategies for gaining such mechanistic knowledge by combining advanced analytical and computational tools. Furthermore, Systems Toxicology is a means for the identification and application of biomarkers for improved safety assessments. In Systems Toxicology, quantitative systems-wide molecular changes in the context of an exposure are measured, and a causal chain of molecular events linking exposures with adverse outcomes (i.e., functional and apical end points) is deciphered. Mathematical models are then built to describe these processes in a quantitative manner. The integrated data analysis leads to the identification of how biological networks are perturbed by the exposure and enables the development of predictive mathematical models of toxicological processes. This perspective integrates current knowledge regarding bioanalytical approaches, computational analysis, and the potential for improved risk assessment. PMID:24446777

  7. CONSIDERATIONS REGARDING THE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES OF BANK RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICOLETA GEORGETA PANAIT

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The study summarizes what it means banking risks, the main risk management strategies. The complexity of the business environment, liberalization and internationalization of financial flows, brings rapid innovation, diversified financial markets, new opportunities but multiplied risks. Banks establish the types of risks they are prepared to take and the threshold at which risk is considered significant. The process of determining the risks that are taken includes the nature, the scale and the complexity of banks.

  8. A Chemical Activity Approach to Exposure and Risk Assessment of Chemicals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gobas, Frank A. P. C.; Mayer, Philipp; Parkerton, Thomas F.

    2018-01-01

    activity approach, its strengths and limitations, and provides examples of how this concept may be applied to the management of single chemicals and chemical mixtures. The examples demonstrate that the chemical activity approach provides a useful framework for 1) compiling and evaluating exposure......To support the goals articulated in the vision for exposure and risk assessment in the twenty-first century, we highlight the application of a thermodynamic chemical activity approach for the exposure and risk assessment of chemicals in the environment. The present article describes the chemical...... assessment. The article further illustrates that the chemical activity approach can support an adaptive management strategy for environmental stewardship of chemicals where “safe” chemical activities are established based on toxicological studies and presented as guidelines for environmental quality...

  9. Risk evaluation and control strategies for indoor radon: a brief discussion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nero, A.V. Jr.

    1994-01-01

    Average risks of death estimated for radon are larger than those for many exposures in the outdoor environment, but similar to some in industrial settings. However, the indoor environment differs in regard to cost, benefit, responsibility, and distribution of risks from the outdoor and occupational settings, where frameworks for setting risk-limiting objectives and strategies have already been developed substantially. This indicates the need to develop a conceptual framework for evaluating risks in the indoor environment, within which the objectives of radon control strategies can be sensibly chosen. Nevertheless, the range of estimated radon risks and of recent radon control strategies suggest near-term elements of any strategy, i.e. accurate and effective public information, as well as reliable monitoring and control capabilities, and a focus on areas where most high residential levels occur. Developing a conceptual framework for evaluating indoor risks will permit the formulation of suitable aims on average indoor exposures and lower exposure situations. (author)

  10. Strategy Assessment of Company ECOPOSTES

    OpenAIRE

    Cortazar Sanabria, Javier Mauricio

    2015-01-01

    This thesis focuses on developing a research on the different types of strategies a company can implement depending on their situation and the various analyses that must be completed before making the strategy decision. External and internal environment methods are described together with the various forms of corporate restructure methods a company can use if needed. The whole process is followed step by step to provide a strategy assessment to company Ecopostes, a Colombian company focused o...

  11. Identification and risk estimation of movement strategies during cutting maneuvers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, Sina; Komnik, Igor; Peters, Markus; Funken, Johannes; Potthast, Wolfgang

    2017-12-01

    Approximately 70% of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries occur in non-contact situations during cutting and landing maneuvers. Parameters such as footstrike patterns and trunk orientation were found to influence ACL relevant knee loading, however, the relationship between the whole body movement and injury risk is debated. This study identifies whole body movement strategies that increase injury risk, and provides training recommendations to reduce this risk or enable a save return to sports after injury. Experimental cross-sectional study design. Three dimensional movement analysis was carried out to investigate 50 participants performing anticipated 90° cutting maneuvers. To identify and characterize movement strategies, footstrike pattern, knee valgus moment, knee internal rotation moment, angle of attack, shoulder and pelvis axis were analyzed using statistical parametric mapping. Three different movement strategies were identified. One strategy included rearfoot striking in combination with a relatively upright body position which generated higher knee joint loads than the second strategy, forefoot striking in combination with more backwards leaning and pre-rotation of the trunk towards the new movement direction. A third strategy combined forefoot striking with less preorientation which increased the ACL relevant knee joint load compared to the second strategy. The identified movement strategies clearly pre-determine the injury risk during non-contact situations with the third strategy as the most unfavorable one. Compared to the study of isolated parameters, the analysis of the whole body movement allowed for detailed separation of more risky from less risky cutting strategies. These results give practical recommendations for the prevention of ACL injury. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  13. A risk hedging strategy under the nonparallel-shift yield curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Pu; He, Xubiao

    2005-08-01

    Under the assumption of the movement of rigid, a nonparallel-shift model in the term structure of interest rates is developed by introducing Fisher & Weil duration which is a well-known concept in the area of interest risk management. This paper has studied the hedge and replication for portfolio immunization to minimize the risk exposure. Throughout the experiment of numerical simulation, the risk exposures of the portfolio under the different risk hedging strategies are quantitatively evaluated by the method of value at risk (VaR) order statistics (OS) estimation. The results show that the risk hedging strategy proposed in this paper is very effective for the interest risk management of the default-free bond.

  14. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  15. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  16. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  17. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  18. Assessment of two BWR accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodge, S.A.; Petek, M.

    1991-01-01

    Candidate mitigative strategies for management of in-vessel events during the late phase (after core degradation has occurred) of postulated BWR severe accidents were considered at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) during 1990. The identification of new strategies was subject to the constraint that they should, to the maximum extent possible, make use of the existing equipment and water resources of the BWR facilities and not require major equipment modifications or additions. As a result of this effort, two of these candidate strategies were recommended for additional assessment. The first is a strategy for containment flooding to maintain the core and structural debris within the reactor vessel in the event that vessel injection cannot be restored to terminate a severe accident sequence. The second strategy pertains to the opposite case, for which vessel injection would be restored after control blade melting had begun; its purpose is to provide an injection source of borated water at the concentration necessary to preclude criticality upon recovering a damaged BWR core. Assessments of these two strategies have been performed during 1991 under the auspices of the Detailed Assessment of BWR In-Vessel Strategies Program. This paper provides a discussion of the motivation for and purpose of these strategies and the potential for their success. 33 refs., 9 figs

  19. Methods of assessment and management of enterprise risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Kiseleva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the actual topic of our time – the management of business risks. An integral part of professional risk management is to identify the nature of the object of management in the sphere of economy. Since the domestic theory of risk management is under development, the problem of a clear comprehensive definition of risk becomes now of particular relevance. The article discusses the basic concepts of risk management; studied its components in the business activities; reflected system and risk management principles; The basic types of risks in business. A organizational and economic mechanism of enterprise risk assessment. Practical advice on risk management. Entrepreneurship without risk does not exist. With the development of market economy the specific entrepreneur determines the methods that will work, and they all lead to entrepreneurial risks. The level of threats on the market today, above the level of potential profits. It is concluded that it is impossible to increase revenue without increasing the risk or reduce risk without reducing income. The lower range of the probability distribution of expected returns relative to its mean value, the lower the risk associated with this operation. Avoid risk in business is almost impossible, but you can reduce this risk. And it depends on how professionally and correctly operates the entrepreneur, what kind of strategy he will choose to reduce the appearance of risk.

  20. Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Robson, Craig; Glenis, Vassilis; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Critical infrastructure networks, including transport, are crucial to the social and economic function of urban areas but are at increasing risk from natural hazards. Minimizing disruption to these networks should form part of a strategy to increase urban resilience. A framework for assessing the disruption from flood events to transport systems is presented that couples a high-resolution urban flood model with transport modelling and network analytics to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall events, and to quantify the resilience value of different adaptation options. A case study in Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK shows that both green roof infrastructure and traditional engineering interventions such as culverts or flood walls can reduce transport disruption from flooding. The magnitude of these benefits depends on the flood event and adaptation strategy, but for the scenarios considered here 3-22% improvements in city-wide travel times are achieved. The network metric of betweenness centrality, weighted by travel time, is shown to provide a rapid approach to identify and prioritize the most critical locations for flood risk management intervention. Protecting just the top ranked critical location from flooding provides an 11% reduction in person delays. A city-wide deployment of green roofs achieves a 26% reduction, and although key routes still flood, the benefits of this strategy are more evenly distributed across the transport network as flood depths are reduced across the model domain. Both options should form part of an urban flood risk management strategy, but this method can be used to optimize investment and target limited resources at critical locations, enabling green infrastructure strategies to be gradually implemented over the longer term to provide city-wide benefits. This framework provides a means of prioritizing limited financial resources to improve resilience. This is particularly important as flood management investments must typically exceed

  1. Evaluation of different hedging strategies for commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palzer, Andreas; Westner, Günther; Madlener, Reinhard

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we design and evaluate eight different strategies for hedging commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants. Price developments are parameterized based on EEX data from 2008 to 2011. The probability distributions derived are used to determine the value-at-risk (VaR) of the individual strategies, which are in a final step combined in a mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the most efficient hedging strategy. We find that the strategy adopted can have a marked influence on the remaining price risk. Quarter futures are found to be particularly well suited for reducing market price risk. In contrast, spot trading of CO 2 certificates is found to be preferable compared to forward market trading. Finally, portfolio optimization shows that a mix of various hedging strategies can further improve the profitability of a heat-based cogeneration plant. - Highlights: • Evaluation of commodity price risk hedging strategies for industrial cogeneration. • Value-at-risk analysis of eight different hedging strategies. • Mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the optimal hedging strategy mix. • A mix of hedging strategies further improves profitability of heat-based CHP

  2. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  3. A Risk Management Strategy for Radon: The US Experience (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boschi, N.

    1998-01-01

    In the United States (US) the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA or Agency) has played a leading role on radon policy. EPA estimates that indoor radon in the US causes approximately 14,000 lung cancer deaths per year with an uncertainty range of 7,000 to 30,000. In 1988, EPA and the Center for Disease Control issued an advisory urging that most houses in the US be tested for radon. The risk assessments have indicated a problem of substantial magnitude. Nonetheless, risk of radon has been assumed to follow a non-threshold model and risk management strategies have been based on the concept that exposures at levels ≥148 Bq.m -3 (4 pCi.1 -1 ). EPA's approach has been to call for voluntary testing, since the Agency does not have direct regulatory authority, and to follow an action guideline of 148 Bq.m -3 . This paper provides an overview of EPA's risk management strategy to control exposure to indoor radon. The first part reviews EPA's approach to radon testing and radon measurement protocols while introducing the option of encouraging homes to be tested and, if necessary, mitigated at the time of any real estate transaction. The second part introduces EPA's voluntary guidelines for construction techniques on how to minimise radon in new homes and addresses how these guidelines could be adopted by the States, local governments, and private sector homebuilders. The third part presents EPA's programme to educate the public on indoor radon risk. The paper concludes by outlining a Congressional directed approach to radon protection based on a multi-media risk management model for radon in air and water. (author)

  4. Results of implementation of a hospital-based strategy to reduce cesarean delivery among low-risk women in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoemaker, Esther S; Bourgeault, Ivy L; Cameron, Carol; Graham, Ian D; Hutton, Eileen K

    2017-11-01

    To assess the cesarean delivery (CD) rate among low-risk pregnancies before and after implementation of a hospital-based program in Canada. A prospective before-and-after study was conducted to assess the effects of the CARE (CAesarean REduction) strategy, which was developed and implemented at Markham Stouffville Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada, in 2010 to reduce CD among low-risk women. Hospital records were reviewed to identify changes in the proportions of CD performed during 12 months (April 2009-March 2010) before implementation of the CARE strategy versus 12 months after implementation (April 2012-March 2013) at Markham Stouffville Hospital and 36 hospitals of the same level in the same province. At the intervention hospital, 30.3% (964/3181) of women underwent CD in 2009-2010, compared with 26.4% (803/3045) in 2012-2013 (difference -3.9%, PImplementation of the CARE strategy reduced rates of CD among the target population. © 2017 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics.

  5. [International trend of guidance for nanomaterial risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirose, Akihiko

    2013-01-01

    In the past few years, several kinds of opinions or recommendations on the nanomaterial safety assessment have been published from international or national bodies. Among the reports, the first practical guidance of risk assessment from the regulatory body was published from the European Food Safety Authorities in May 2011, which included the determination of exposure scenario and toxicity testing strategy. In October 2011, European Commission (EC) adopted the definition of "nanomaterial" for regulation. And more recently, Scientific Committee on Consumer Safety of EC released guidance for assessment of nanomaterials in cosmetics in June 2012. A series of activities in EU marks an important step towards realistic safety assessment of nanomaterials. On the other hand, the US FDA announced a draft guidance for industry in June 2011, and then published draft guidance documents for both "Cosmetic Products" and "Food Ingredients and Food Contact Substances" in April 2012. These draft documents do not restrictedly define the physical properties of nanomaterials, but when manufacturing changes alter the dimensions, properties, or effects of an FDA-regulated product, the products are treated as new products. Such international movements indicate that most of nanomaterials with any new properties would be assessed or regulated as new products by most of national authorities in near future, although the approaches are still case by case basis. We will introduce such current international activities and consideration points for regulatory risk assessment.

  6. PORTFOLIO INSURANCE INVESTMENT STRATEGIES: A RISK-MANAGEMENT TOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elma Agic-Sabeta

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Unsystemic risks in financial markets may be reduced through diversification. Systemic risks relate to the overall economy, cannot be influenced by a single company, and require special attention. Empirical research on return distributions in the long-term shows that investing under the assumption of normal distribution of returns may be dangerous. The main objectives of this article are to describe portfolio insurance strategies and investigate their advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, their use in financial markets in both developed and emerging markets is explored, with special consideration placed on southeast European markets. Theoretical models are reviewed, including recent research articles in the field. The results are analyzed, summarized, and presented in the form of tables and graphs. The main finding of the article is identification of strategies that could be used in southeast Europe. It concludes that implementation of portfolio insurance strategies by asset managers may reduce financial risks in southeast European markets if implementation is done professionally and, simultaneously, it is monitored during the entire investment horizon.

  7. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  8. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  9. Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitts, Mary A.; Madurai, Siram; Butler, Doug; Kerstman, Eric; Risin, Diana

    2008-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

  10. Performance Assessment Strategy Plan for the Geologic Repository Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    Performance assessment is a major constituent of the program being conducted by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to develop a geologic repository. Performance assessment is the set of activities needed for quantitative evaluations to assess compliance with the performance requirements in the regulations for a geologic repository and to support the development of the repository. The strategy for these evaluations has been documented in the Performance Assessment Strategy Plan (DOE, 1989). The implementation of the performance assessment strategy is defined in this document. This paper discusses the scope and objectives of the implementation plan, the relationship of the plan to other program plans, summarizes the performance assessment areas and the integrated strategy of the performance assessment program. 1 fig., 3 tabs

  11. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...

  12. Proceeding of 35th domestic symposium on applications of structural reliability and risk assessment methods to nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-06-01

    As the 35th domestic symposium of Atomic Energy Research Committee, the Japan Welding Engineering Society, the symposium was held titled as Applications of structural reliability/risk assessment methods to nuclear energy'. Six speakers gave lectures titled as 'Structural reliability and risk assessment methods', 'Risk-informed regulation of US nuclear energy and role of probabilistic risk assessment', 'Reliability and risk assessment methods in chemical plants', 'Practical structural design methods based on reliability in architectural and civil areas', 'Maintenance activities based on reliability in thermal power plants' and 'LWR maintenance strategies based on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics'. (T. Tanaka)

  13. Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Twigg

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

  14. Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twigg, John; Christie, Nicola; Haworth, James; Osuteye, Emmanuel; Skarlatidou, Artemis

    2017-02-01

    Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

  15. Improving nursing students' assessment of fall risk in community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patton, Susan K

    2016-12-09

    Nationally, approximately one third of older adults fall each year. Falls and resulting injury result in decreased mobility, functional impairment, loss of independence, and increased mortality. Utilization of evidence-based protocols by health care providers to identify older adults at risk of falling is limited, and rates of participation by older adults in prevention activities is low. Because of nursing's increasing role in caring for older adults, development of fall prevention education for nursing students would result in increased awareness of the need for fall prevention in community-dwelling older adults and increased access of older adults to falls risk assessment. There is a need to extend research to inform teaching and learning strategies for fall prevention. After pretesting, a convenience sample of 52 undergraduate nursing students and 22 graduate nursing students completed an online education program and performed a falls risk assessment on an older adult. After completing the clinical assignment, students completed a posttest and self-efficacy survey. Data were analyzed using multivariate statistical tests. Results revealed an increase in knowledge and student self-reporting of efficacy of fall risk assessment skills for the older adult population. This study suggests that nursing students acquired the necessary knowledge and self-efficacy for assessing fall risk of older adults through the combination of an online learning module and participating in actual fall risk assessment of an older adult.

  16. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  17. Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

    2017-04-01

    The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out

  18. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  19. Who comes to a workplace health risk assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbins, T A; Simpson, J M; Oldenburg, B; Owen, N; Harris, D

    1998-01-01

    Workplace health promotion initiatives have proliferated, but there are difficulties in recruiting employees of lower socioeconomic status and at higher risk of disease. A survey of health behaviors and attitudes was administered in 20 worksites and the opportunity to attend a health risk assessment promoted. Those more likely to attend were women, those of higher occupational prestige, and those from a non-English-speaking background. After adjustment for these variables, the only health behavior associated with attendance was smoking status. Perceived risk of lung cancer was significant, even after adjustment for smoking status. Stage of readiness to change health behaviors was associated with attendance, with those in the preparation stage being more likely to attend than those in the precontemplation stage. However, this association was statistically significant only for fruit and vegetable consumption. There was no relation between attendance and support for health promotion, perceived general health, or other perceived risk of disease. These findings suggest that additional risk communication strategies and environmental support are required to involve those with less prestigious occupations.

  20. Violent reinjury risk assessment instrument (VRRAI) for hospital-based violence intervention programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Erik J; Dodington, James; Hunt, Ava; Henderson, Terrell; Nwabuo, Adaobi; Dicker, Rochelle; Juillard, Catherine

    2017-09-01

    Violent injury is the second most common cause of death among 15- to 24-year olds in the US. Up to 58% of violently injured youth return to the hospital with a second violent injury. Hospital-based violence intervention programs (HVIPs) have been shown to reduce injury recidivism through intensive case management. However, no validated guidelines for risk assessment strategies in the HVIP setting have been reported. We aimed to use qualitative methods to investigate the key components of risk assessments employed by HVIP case managers and to propose a risk assessment model based on this qualitative analysis. An established academic hospital-affiliated HVIP served as the nexus for this research. Thematic saturation was reached with 11 semi-structured interviews and two focus groups conducted with HVIP case managers and key informants identified through snowball sampling. Interactions were analyzed by a four-member team using Nvivo 10, employing the constant comparison method. Risk factors identified were used to create a set of models presented in two follow-up HVIP case managers and leadership focus groups. Eighteen key themes within seven domains (environment, identity, mental health, behavior, conflict, indicators of lower risk, and case management) and 141 potential risk factors for use in the risk assessment framework were identified. The most salient factors were incorporated into eight models that were presented to the HVIP case managers. A 29-item algorithmic structured professional judgment model was chosen. We identified four tiers of risk factors for violent reinjury that were incorporated into a proposed risk assessment instrument, VRRAI. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

    2010-05-01

    Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

  2. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  3. The EPA's human exposure research program for assessing cumulative risk in communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-06-01

    Communities are faced with challenges in identifying and prioritizing environmental issues, taking actions to reduce their exposures, and determining their effectiveness for reducing human health risks. Additional challenges include determining what scientific tools are available and most relevant, and understanding how to use those tools; given these barriers, community groups tend to rely more on risk perception than science. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and collaborators are developing and applying tools (models, data, methods) for enhancing cumulative risk assessments. The NERL's "Cumulative Communities Research Program" focuses on key science questions: (1) How to systematically identify and prioritize key chemical stressors within a given community?; (2) How to develop estimates of exposure to multiple stressors for individuals in epidemiologic studies?; and (3) What tools can be used to assess community-level distributions of exposures for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of risk reduction strategies? This paper provides community partners and scientific researchers with an understanding of the NERL research program and other efforts to address cumulative community risks; and key research needs and opportunities. Some initial findings include the following: (1) Many useful tools exist for components of risk assessment, but need to be developed collaboratively with end users and made more comprehensive and user-friendly for practical application; (2) Tools for quantifying cumulative risks and impact of community risk reduction activities are also needed; (3) More data are needed to assess community- and individual-level exposures, and to link exposure-related information with health effects; and (4) Additional research is needed to incorporate risk-modifying factors ("non-chemical stressors") into cumulative risk assessments. The products of this

  4. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  5. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-13

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  6. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-01

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  7. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Is the high-risk strategy to prevent cardiovascular disease equitable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wallach Kildemoes, Helle; Diderichsen, Finn; Krasnik, Allan

    2012-01-01

    ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Statins are increasingly prescribed to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) in asymptomatic individuals. Yet, it is unknown whether those at higher CVD risk - i.e. individuals in lower socio-economic position (SEP) - are adequately reached by this high-risk strategy. Aim......: To examine whether the Danish implementation of the strategy to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) by initiating statin (HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor) therapy in high-risk individuals is equitable across socioeconomic groups. METHODS: Design: Cohort study. Setting and participants: Applying individual...

  9. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  10. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  11. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  12. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  13. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  14. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  15. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  16. EPA'S strategy to reduce risk of radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Page, S.

    1993-01-01

    The Indoor Radon Abatement Act of 1988 (IRAA) directed EPA to undertake a variety of activities to address the growing public concern over dangers posed by exposure to indoor radon. Among other requirements, the law directed the Agency to study radon levels, evaluate mitigation methods, establish proficiency programs, assist states with program development, develop training centers, and provide public information. EPA has developed and implemented programs to address each of the key provisions of this statute. This paper presents EPA's broad national strategy to reduce radon risks. It combines and reinforces EPA's basic foundation, including its guiding policies and cooperative partnerships, with an overall management approach and focus for the future. The paper starts with an overview that introduces the strategy's four key elements: underlying policies and scientific principles, a decentralized system of states and other partners for targeting the public, multiple strategies for achieving radon risk reduction, and a strong focus on five key program priorities. This paper then discusses each of these elements in more detail and describes how they interact to guide future efforts and directions of the Agency

  17. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  18. Analysis of intervention strategies for inhalation exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and associated lung cancer risk based on a Monte Carlo population exposure assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Bin; Zhao, Bin

    2014-01-01

    It is difficult to evaluate and compare interventions for reducing exposure to air pollutants, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), a widely found air pollutant in both indoor and outdoor air. This study presents the first application of the Monte Carlo population exposure assessment model to quantify the effects of different intervention strategies on inhalation exposure to PAHs and the associated lung cancer risk. The method was applied to the population in Beijing, China, in the year 2006. Several intervention strategies were designed and studied, including atmospheric cleaning, smoking prohibition indoors, use of clean fuel for cooking, enhancing ventilation while cooking and use of indoor cleaners. Their performances were quantified by population attributable fraction (PAF) and potential impact fraction (PIF) of lung cancer risk, and the changes in indoor PAH concentrations and annual inhalation doses were also calculated and compared. The results showed that atmospheric cleaning and use of indoor cleaners were the two most effective interventions. The sensitivity analysis showed that several input parameters had major influence on the modeled PAH inhalation exposure and the rankings of different interventions. The ranking was reasonably robust for the remaining majority of parameters. The method itself can be extended to other pollutants and in different places. It enables the quantitative comparison of different intervention strategies and would benefit intervention design and relevant policy making.

  19. Analysis of intervention strategies for inhalation exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and associated lung cancer risk based on a Monte Carlo population exposure assessment model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Zhou

    Full Text Available It is difficult to evaluate and compare interventions for reducing exposure to air pollutants, including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs, a widely found air pollutant in both indoor and outdoor air. This study presents the first application of the Monte Carlo population exposure assessment model to quantify the effects of different intervention strategies on inhalation exposure to PAHs and the associated lung cancer risk. The method was applied to the population in Beijing, China, in the year 2006. Several intervention strategies were designed and studied, including atmospheric cleaning, smoking prohibition indoors, use of clean fuel for cooking, enhancing ventilation while cooking and use of indoor cleaners. Their performances were quantified by population attributable fraction (PAF and potential impact fraction (PIF of lung cancer risk, and the changes in indoor PAH concentrations and annual inhalation doses were also calculated and compared. The results showed that atmospheric cleaning and use of indoor cleaners were the two most effective interventions. The sensitivity analysis showed that several input parameters had major influence on the modeled PAH inhalation exposure and the rankings of different interventions. The ranking was reasonably robust for the remaining majority of parameters. The method itself can be extended to other pollutants and in different places. It enables the quantitative comparison of different intervention strategies and would benefit intervention design and relevant policy making.

  20. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  1. Risk management strategies by Australian farmers: two case studies

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Nam C.; Wegener, Malcolm K.; Russell, Iean W.; Cameron, Donald; Coventry, David; Cooper, Ian M.

    2007-01-01

    Australian farmers operate in one of the most risky farming environments in the world. They have to cope with numerous sources of risk including weather uncertainty, variable market prices, and institutional changes in their business management. This paper reports results from two case studies undertaken to examine the issues of farming risks and risk management strategies in Australia. The first case study found that unpredictable weather, financial risk, marketing risk, and personal risk we...

  2. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  3. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  4. Risk based knowledge assessments: towards a toolbox for managing key knowledge assets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bright, Clive

    2008-01-01

    Full text: It is now well acknowledged that considerable Knowledge Management (KM) issues are faced by national and international nuclear communities. Much of these problems relate to issues of an ageing workforce and the significantly reduced influx of new generation of nuclear engineers and scientists. The management discipline of KM contains a broad spectrum of methods and techniques. However, the effective implementation of a KM strategy requires the selection and deployment of appropriate and targeted approaches that are pertinent to the particular issues of the technical or business area within an organisation. A clear strategy is contingent upon an assessment of what are the knowledge areas and what are the key (knowledge) risk areas. In particular the following issues have to be addressed: 'what knowledge exists?', 'what is the nature and format of that knowledge?' and 'what knowledge is key to our continued, safe, and effective operation?'. Answers to such questions will enable an organisation to prioritise KM effort and employ subsequent KM approaches that are appropriate. Subsequent approaches ranging from the utilisation of information technologies, such as databases; knowledge retention methods; and the setting up of Community of Practices to share knowledge and experience. This paper considers a risk assessment based approach to KM. In so doing the paper extends work previously reported on an approach to conducting knowledge audits by considering the integration of that approach with approaches to (knowledge) risk assessment. The paper also provides a brief review of the various KM approaches that can act to reduce the level of risk faced by an organisation. The paper concludes by reflecting upon the role, value of deploying such a risk based approach. (author)

  5. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  6. A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Christian, Robby [Dept. of Mechanical, Aerospace, and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Bo Gyung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Sang Hoon [Dept. of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Keimyung University, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode.

  7. A software tool integrated risk assessment of spent fuel transpotation and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yun, Mi Rae; Almomani, Belal; Ham, Jae Hyun; Kang, Hyun Gook; Christian, Robby; Kim, Bo Gyung; Lee, Sang Hoon

    2017-01-01

    When temporary spent fuel storage pools at nuclear power plants reach their capacity limit, the spent fuel must be moved to an alternative storage facility. However, radioactive materials must be handled and stored carefully to avoid severe consequences to the environment. In this study, the risks of three potential accident scenarios (i.e., maritime transportation, an aircraft crashing into an interim storage facility, and on-site transportation) associated with the spent fuel transportation process were analyzed using a probabilistic approach. For each scenario, the probabilities and the consequences were calculated separately to assess the risks: the probabilities were calculated using existing data and statistical models, and the consequences were calculated using computation models. Risk assessment software was developed to conveniently integrate the three scenarios. The risks were analyzed using the developed software according to the shipment route, building characteristics, and spent fuel handling environment. As a result of the risk analysis with varying accident conditions, transportation and storage strategies with relatively low risk were developed for regulators and licensees. The focus of this study was the risk assessment methodology; however, the applied model and input data have some uncertainties. Further research to reduce these uncertainties will improve the accuracy of this mode

  8. Risk assessment of aflatoxins B1 (AFB1) in corn arepas in Colombia and chemical risk assessment case study mercury in Fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correa Lizarazo, D.

    2013-01-01

    The power point presentation is about: Identify the pair substrate (corn, wheat and rice) - mycotoxin (DON, AFB1) higher risk for the Colombian population, based on the exposure assessment and mercury in freshwater fish from Colombia. This report answer some the following questions: what are the most consumed products in the country, which may create a risk for the Colombian population, what are the prevention and control recommendations to reduce potential contamination of the products selected, what are economic activities and their impact areas that contribute most to the incorporation of of mercury in freshwater fish from Colombia,what are the species that may pose greater accumulation of mercury and methylmercury identified , what is the risk associated with the consumption of the species, what are the preventive measures to minimize exposure from consumption of fish with mercury and methylmercury and possible intervention strategies

  9. Assessing self-regulation strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Vet, Emely; de Ridder, Denise T. D.; Stok, Marijn

    2014-01-01

    intake and background characteristics. In study 3, the TESQ-E was administered twice within four weeks to evaluate test-retest reliability (n = 140). Study 4 was a cross-sectional survey (n = 93) that assessed the TESQ-E and related psychological constructs (e.g., motivation, autonomy, self-control). All...... general self-regulation and motivation measures. Conclusions: The TESQ-E provides a reliable and valid measure to assess six theory-based self-regulation strategies that adolescents may use to ensure their healthy eating....

  10. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  11. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  12. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  13. Concepts of investment risks and strategies in electricity generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Joode, J.; Boots, M.G.

    2005-06-01

    This report deals with the specific investment risks in electricity generation and discusses the problems associated with energy investments in general and focus on the additional or changing risks resulting from electricity market liberalisation. The focus is on (1) risks under the control of the electricity company, and on (2) market risks, such as the risk of price changes. Ultimately, some of the approaches and strategies that enable electricity producers to counter or mitigate these risks are discussed

  14. Grouping and Read-Across Approaches for Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oomen, Agnes G; Bleeker, Eric A J; Bos, Peter M J; van Broekhuizen, Fleur; Gottardo, Stefania; Groenewold, Monique; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Marcomini, Antonio; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Wiench, Karin; Wohlleben, Wendel; Landsiedel, Robert

    2015-10-26

    Physicochemical properties of chemicals affect their exposure, toxicokinetics/fate and hazard, and for nanomaterials, the variation of these properties results in a wide variety of materials with potentially different risks. To limit the amount of testing for risk assessment, the information gathering process for nanomaterials needs to be efficient. At the same time, sufficient information to assess the safety of human health and the environment should be available for each nanomaterial. Grouping and read-across approaches can be utilised to meet these goals. This article presents different possible applications of grouping and read-across for nanomaterials within the broader perspective of the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy (RAS), as developed in the EU FP7 project MARINA. Firstly, nanomaterials can be grouped based on limited variation in physicochemical properties to subsequently design an efficient testing strategy that covers the entire group. Secondly, knowledge about exposure, toxicokinetics/fate or hazard, for example via properties such as dissolution rate, aspect ratio, chemical (non-)activity, can be used to organise similar materials in generic groups to frame issues that need further attention, or potentially to read-across. Thirdly, when data related to specific endpoints is required, read-across can be considered, using data from a source material for the target nanomaterial. Read-across could be based on a scientifically sound justification that exposure, distribution to the target (fate/toxicokinetics) and hazard of the target material are similar to, or less than, the source material. These grouping and read-across approaches pave the way for better use of available information on nanomaterials and are flexible enough to allow future adaptations related to scientific developments.

  15. Grouping and Read-Across Approaches for Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnes G. Oomen

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Physicochemical properties of chemicals affect their exposure, toxicokinetics/fate and hazard, and for nanomaterials, the variation of these properties results in a wide variety of materials with potentially different risks. To limit the amount of testing for risk assessment, the information gathering process for nanomaterials needs to be efficient. At the same time, sufficient information to assess the safety of human health and the environment should be available for each nanomaterial. Grouping and read-across approaches can be utilised to meet these goals. This article presents different possible applications of grouping and read-across for nanomaterials within the broader perspective of the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy (RAS, as developed in the EU FP7 project MARINA. Firstly, nanomaterials can be grouped based on limited variation in physicochemical properties to subsequently design an efficient testing strategy that covers the entire group. Secondly, knowledge about exposure, toxicokinetics/fate or hazard, for example via properties such as dissolution rate, aspect ratio, chemical (non-activity, can be used to organise similar materials in generic groups to frame issues that need further attention, or potentially to read-across. Thirdly, when data related to specific endpoints is required, read-across can be considered, using data from a source material for the target nanomaterial. Read-across could be based on a scientifically sound justification that exposure, distribution to the target (fate/toxicokinetics and hazard of the target material are similar to, or less than, the source material. These grouping and read-across approaches pave the way for better use of available information on nanomaterials and are flexible enough to allow future adaptations related to scientific developments.

  16. Blood pressure-lowering treatment strategies based on cardiovascular risk versus blood pressure: A meta-analysis of individual participant data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmali, Kunal N; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; van der Leeuw, Joep; Goff, David C; Yusuf, Salim; Zanchetti, Alberto; Glasziou, Paul; Jackson, Rodney; Woodward, Mark; Rodgers, Anthony; Neal, Bruce C; Berge, Eivind; Teo, Koon; Davis, Barry R; Chalmers, John; Pepine, Carl; Rahimi, Kazem; Sundström, Johan

    2018-03-01

    everyone with SBP ≥ 140 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 3.8% (95% CI 12.5% fewer to 7.2% more) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 3.1% (95% CI 1.5%-5.0%) more events for the same number of persons treated, although the former estimate was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, the CVD risk strategy did not appear to be more beneficial than the SBP strategy in patients with diabetes mellitus or established CVD. A blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk is more effective than one based on blood pressure levels alone across a range of thresholds. These results support using cardiovascular risk assessment to guide blood pressure treatment decision-making in moderate- to high-risk individuals, particularly for primary prevention.

  17. Blood pressure-lowering treatment strategies based on cardiovascular risk versus blood pressure: A meta-analysis of individual participant data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kunal N Karmali

    2018-03-01

    treating everyone with SBP ≥ 140 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 3.8% (95% CI 12.5% fewer to 7.2% more fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 3.1% (95% CI 1.5%-5.0% more events for the same number of persons treated, although the former estimate was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, the CVD risk strategy did not appear to be more beneficial than the SBP strategy in patients with diabetes mellitus or established CVD.A blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk is more effective than one based on blood pressure levels alone across a range of thresholds. These results support using cardiovascular risk assessment to guide blood pressure treatment decision-making in moderate- to high-risk individuals, particularly for primary prevention.

  18. Diagnostic relevance of a questionnaire for osteoporosis risk assessment - comparison with osteodensitometry data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyanov, M.

    2001-01-01

    The early detection of osteoporosis is a key factor for reducing associated costs. Clinical risk factors have been used for selection of subjects suitable for bone densitometry. Questionnaires for preliminary osteoporosis risk assessment have already been implemented. The purpose of this study is to apply an original questionnaire for risk assessment and to assess its diagnostic value by comparison to forearm bone mineral density data (BMD). 285 females were included - mean age 53.5 ±8.8 years, 82% were menopausal. The osteoporosis risk was assessed by an original score system based on a questionnaire. Forearm BMD was measured by single-energy x-ray absorptiometry using own reference ranges. Two diagnosis models were tested by 'cluster analysis' - classifications with 3 or 2 diagnostic items. The second proved better. Sensitivity in detecting women with forearm osteoporosis was 86.7%, specificity - 16.5% and 75.8% of all women were correctly classified. The total score distribution in the study population is skewed to the right which reflects the two subgroups - at high and low risk for osteoporosis. The value of a similar questionnaire in the overall strategy for diagnosis and treatment of low BMD is discussed. (author)

  19. Precommitted Investment Strategy versus Time-Consistent Investment Strategy for a General Risk Model with Diffusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidong Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We mainly study a general risk model and investigate the precommitted strategy and the time-consistent strategy under mean-variance criterion, respectively. A lagrange method is proposed to derive the precommitted investment strategy. Meanwhile from the game theoretical perspective, we find the time-consistent investment strategy by solving the extended Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. By comparing the precommitted strategy with the time-consistent strategy, we find that the company under the time-consistent strategy has to give up the better current utility in order to keep a consistent satisfaction over the whole time horizon. Furthermore, we theoretically and numerically provide the effect of the parameters on these two optimal strategies and the corresponding value functions.

  20. [Study on risk assessing indicator system after schistosomiasis transmission interruption in Wuxi City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao-Jun, Meng; Sheng-Hua, Zong; Xuan, Zhang; Dong-Lin, Gao; Yan-Hua, Qian; Bing, Lu

    2017-07-27

    To establish a risk assessing indicator system after the transmission interruption of schistosomiasis in Wuxi City, so as to provide evidences for formulating strategies on schistosomiasis control and prevention. A primary risk assessing indicator system was established based on the literature review. Alternative indicators were scored and screened to establish a final indicator system through two rounds of Delphy method and the related normalized weights and combined weights were also calculated. The risk assessing indicator system was established through two rounds of expert consultation including 3 first grade indicators and 15 second grade indicators. Among the first grade indicators, the normalized weights of natural environment, key populations and social environment were 0.370 6, 0.292 9 and 0.336 5, respectively. Among the second grade indicators, the migrant population accounted for the highest combined weight of 0.125 2 compared to domestic animal of 0.037 1. The authority degree among the first grade indicators was between 0.91 and 0.93, while the authority degree among the second grade indicators was between 0.79 and 0.92. The scientific and authoritative risk assessing indicator system after the transmission interruption of schistosomiasis is established, which provides the evidences for risk assessment on schistosomiasis transmission in Wuxi City.

  1. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  2. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  3. Strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    A configuration, as used here, is a set of component operability or statuses that define the state of a nuclear power plant. Risk-based configuration control is the management of component configurations using a risk perspective to control risk and assure safety. If the component configurations that have high risk implications do not occur then the risk from the operation of nuclear power plants would be minimal. The control of component configurations, i.e., the management of component statuses, so that the risk from components being unavailable is minimized, becomes difficult because the status of a standby safety system component is often not apparent unless it is tested. In this paper, we discuss the strategies and criteria for risk-based configuration control in nuclear power plants. In developing these strategies and criteria, the primary objective is to obtain more direct risk control but the added benefit is the effective use of plant resources. Implementation of such approaches can result in replacement/modification of parts of Technical Specifications. Specifically, the risk impact or safety impact of a configuration depends upon four factors: (1) The configuration components which are simultaneously down (i.e., inoperable); (2) the backup components which are known to be up (i.e., operable); (3) the duration of time the configuration exists (the outage time); and (4) the frequency at which the configuration occurs. Risk-based configuration control involves managing these factors using risk analyses and risk insights. In this paper, we discuss each of the factors and illustrate how they can be controlled. The information and the tools needed in implementing configuration control are also discussed. The risk-based calculation requirements in achieving the control are also delineated. 4 refs., 4 figs., 1 tab

  4. Can an Internet-based health risk assessment highlight problems of heart disease risk factor awareness? A cross-sectional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickerson, Justin B; McNeal, Catherine J; Tsai, Ginger; Rivera, Cathleen M; Smith, Matthew Lee; Ohsfeldt, Robert L; Ory, Marcia G

    2014-04-18

    Health risk assessments are becoming more popular as a tool to conveniently and effectively reach community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for serious chronic conditions such as coronary heart disease (CHD). The use of such instruments to improve adults' risk factor awareness and concordance with clinically measured risk factor values could be an opportunity to advance public health knowledge and build effective interventions. The objective of this study was to determine if an Internet-based health risk assessment can highlight important aspects of agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors for community-dwelling adults who may be at risk for CHD. Data from an Internet-based cardiovascular health risk assessment (Heart Aware) administered to community-dwelling adults at 127 clinical sites were analyzed. Respondents were recruited through individual hospital marketing campaigns, such as media advertising and print media, found throughout inpatient and outpatient facilities. CHD risk factors from the Framingham Heart Study were examined. Weighted kappa statistics were calculated to measure interrater agreement between respondents' self-reported and clinically measured CHD risk factors. Weighted kappa statistics were then calculated for each sample by strata of overall 10-year CHD risk. Three samples were drawn based on strategies for treating missing data: a listwise deleted sample, a pairwise deleted sample, and a multiple imputation (MI) sample. The MI sample (n=16,879) was most appropriate for addressing missing data. No CHD risk factor had better than marginal interrater agreement (κ>.60). High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) exhibited suboptimal interrater agreement that deteriorated (eg, κInternet-based health risk assessments such as Heart Aware may contribute to public health surveillance, but they must address selection bias of Internet-based recruitment methods.

  5. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  6. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  7. Identification and assessment of containment and release management strategies for a BWR Mark II containment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, C.C.; Lehner, J.R.

    1992-06-01

    Accident management strategies that have the potential to maintain containment integrity and control or mitigate the release of radioactivity following a severe accident at a boiling water reactor with a Mark 2 type of containment are identified and evaluated. The strategies are referred to as containment and release strategies. Using information available from probabilistic risk assessments and other existing severe accident research, and employing simplified containment and release event trees, this report identified the challenges a Mark 2 containment may encounter during a severe accident, the mechanisms behind these challenges, and the strategies that could be used to mitigate the challenge. By means of a safety objective tree, the strategies are linked to the general safety objectives of containment and release management. As part of the assessment process, the strategies are applied to certain severe accident sequence categories deemed important to a Mark 2 containment. These sequence categories exhibit one or more of the following characteristics: high probability of core damage, high consequences, lead to a number of challenges, and involve the failure of multiple systems. The Limerick Generating Station is used as a representative Mark 2 plant to illustrate plant specifics in this report

  8. Understanding risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven

    2011-07-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Amendments Act of 2007 mandated that Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS) be required of manufacturers. These REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with drugs and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product, including once the product becomes available as generic. The elements of an individual REMS program consist of three levels: medication guide or patient package insert, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use (ETASU). A medication guide or patient package insert is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patient decision making, and enhance drug adherence. Communication plans are used to educate health care providers and to encourage their compliance with REMS. The ETASU is a restrictive process that is implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure that patients have safe access to products with known serious risks that would otherwise be unavailable. To review the components of REMS and specifically assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplantation arena, a literature search of the MEDLINE database (January 2007-December 2010) was performed, and published materials from the FDA and its Web site were also reviewed. In transplantation, REMS programs exist for both everolimus (medication guide and communication plan) and sirolimus (medication guide). The FDA has stated that all mycophenolic acid derivatives will be subject to a proposed REMS that has not yet been approved; however, both branded mycophenolic acid agents already have approved medication guides. The REMS are a permanent fixture in the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents, and their further implementation in solid organ transplantation is inevitable. Transplantation providers should take a proactive role in patient education and implementation of REMS within the therapeutic area

  9. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Fresh-Cut Lettuce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Hao; Lambertini, Elisabetta; Buchanan, Robert L; Schaffner, Donald W; Pradhan, Abani K

    2017-02-01

    Leafy green vegetables, including lettuce, are recognized as potential vehicles for foodborne pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7. Fresh-cut lettuce is potentially at high risk of causing foodborne illnesses, as it is generally consumed without cooking. Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) are gaining more attention as an effective tool to assess and control potential risks associated with foodborne pathogens. This study developed a QMRA model for E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce and evaluated the effects of different potential intervention strategies on the reduction of public health risks. The fresh-cut lettuce production and supply chain was modeled from field production, with both irrigation water and soil as initial contamination sources, to consumption at home. The baseline model (with no interventions) predicted a mean probability of 1 illness per 10 million servings and a mean of 2,160 illness cases per year in the United States. All intervention strategies evaluated (chlorine, ultrasound and organic acid, irradiation, bacteriophage, and consumer washing) significantly reduced the estimated mean number of illness cases when compared with the baseline model prediction (from 11.4- to 17.9-fold reduction). Sensitivity analyses indicated that retail and home storage temperature were the most important factors affecting the predicted number of illness cases. The developed QMRA model provided a framework for estimating risk associated with consumption of E. coli O157:H7-contaminated fresh-cut lettuce and can guide the evaluation and development of intervention strategies aimed at reducing such risk.

  10. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  11. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  12. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  13. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  14. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  15. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  16. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  17. A European perspective on alternatives to animal testing for environmental hazard identification and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz, Stefan; Sela, Erika; Blaha, Ludek; Braunbeck, Thomas; Galay-Burgos, Malyka; García-Franco, Mauricio; Guinea, Joaquin; Klüver, Nils; Schirmer, Kristin; Tanneberger, Katrin; Tobor-Kapłon, Marysia; Witters, Hilda; Belanger, Scott; Benfenati, Emilio; Creton, Stuart; Cronin, Mark T D; Eggen, Rik I L; Embry, Michelle; Ekman, Drew; Gourmelon, Anne; Halder, Marlies; Hardy, Barry; Hartung, Thomas; Hubesch, Bruno; Jungmann, Dirk; Lampi, Mark A; Lee, Lucy; Léonard, Marc; Küster, Eberhard; Lillicrap, Adam; Luckenbach, Till; Murk, Albertinka J; Navas, José M; Peijnenburg, Willie; Repetto, Guillermo; Salinas, Edward; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Spielmann, Horst; Tollefsen, Knut Erik; Walter-Rohde, Susanne; Whale, Graham; Wheeler, James R; Winter, Matthew J

    2013-12-01

    Tests with vertebrates are an integral part of environmental hazard identification and risk assessment of chemicals, plant protection products, pharmaceuticals, biocides, feed additives and effluents. These tests raise ethical and economic concerns and are considered as inappropriate for assessing all of the substances and effluents that require regulatory testing. Hence, there is a strong demand for replacement, reduction and refinement strategies and methods. However, until now alternative approaches have only rarely been used in regulatory settings. This review provides an overview on current regulations of chemicals and the requirements for animal tests in environmental hazard and risk assessment. It aims to highlight the potential areas for alternative approaches in environmental hazard identification and risk assessment. Perspectives and limitations of alternative approaches to animal tests using vertebrates in environmental toxicology, i.e. mainly fish and amphibians, are discussed. Free access to existing (proprietary) animal test data, availability of validated alternative methods and a practical implementation of conceptual approaches such as the Adverse Outcome Pathways and Integrated Testing Strategies were identified as major requirements towards the successful development and implementation of alternative approaches. Although this article focusses on European regulations, its considerations and conclusions are of global relevance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Optimal combined purchasing strategies for a risk-averse manufacturer under price uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiao Wu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of our paper is to analyze optimal purchasing strategies when a manufacturer can buy raw materials from a long-term contract supplier and a spot market under spot price uncertainty. Design/methodology/approach: This procurement model can be solved by using dynamic programming. First, we maximize the DM’s utility of the second period, obtaining the optimal contract quantity and spot quantity for the second period. Then, maximize the DM’s utility of both periods, obtaining the optimal purchasing strategy for the first period. We use a numerical method to compare the performance level of a pure spot sourcing strategy with that of a mixed strategy. Findings: Our results show that optimal purchasing strategies vary with the trend of contract prices. If the contract price falls, the total quantity purchased in period 1 will decrease in the degree of risk aversion. If the contract price increases, the total quantity purchased in period 1 will increase in the degree of risk aversion. The relationship between the optimal contract quantity and the degree of risk aversion depends on whether the expected spot price or the contract price is larger in period 2. Finally, we compare the performance levels between a combined strategy and a spot sourcing strategy. It shows that a combined strategy is optimal for a risk-averse buyer. Originality/value: It’s challenging to deal with a two-period procurement problem with risk consideration. We have obtained results of a two-period procurement problem with two sourcing options, namely contract procurement and spot purchases. Our model incorporates the buyer’s risk aversion factor and the change of contract prices, which are not addressed in early studies.

  19. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  20. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  1. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  2. The assessment of genetic risk of breast cancer : a set of GP guidelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bock, GH; Vlieland, TPMV; Hageman, GCHA; Oosterwijk, JC; Springer, MP; Kievit, J

    Background. Assessing a genetic risk for developing breast cancer is not an easy task for a GP. Current expert guidelines for referring and counselling women with a family history positive for breast cancer are complex and difficult to apply in general practice, and have only two strategies (to

  3. Communicating about risk: strategies for situations where public concern is high but the risk is low

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Hooker

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we summarise research that identifies best practice for communicating about hazards where the risk is low but public concern is high. We apply Peter Sandman’s ‘risk = hazard + outrage’ formulation to these risks, and review factors associated with the amplification of risk signals. We discuss the structures that determine the success of risk communication strategies, such as the capacity for early communication to ‘capture’ the dominant representation of risk issues, the importance of communicating uncertainty, and the usefulness of engaging with communities. We argue that, when facing trade-offs in probable outcomes from communication, it is always best to choose strategies that maintain or build trust, even at the cost of initial overreactions. We discuss these features of successful risk communication in relation to a range of specific examples, particularly opposition to community water fluoridation, Ebola, and routine childhood immunisation.

  4. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  5. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  6. A guide to understanding and implementing risk evaluation and mitigation strategies in organ transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabardi, Steven; Tichy, Eric M

    2013-03-01

    To review the components of the Congressional mandate for risk evaluation and mitigation strategies (REMS) managed by the Food and Drug Administration and assess their impact on health care providers practicing within the organ transplant arena. A non-date-limited search of MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007-June 2012) was conducted by using the following search terms: risk evaluation and mitigation strategies, REMS, and organ transplant, including a query of the individual organs. Information from the Federal Register and the Food and Drug Administration was also evaluated. REMS are strategies implemented to manage known or potential risks associated with medications and to ensure ongoing pharmacovigilance throughout the life of a pharmaceutical product. Elements of REMS programs may consist of 3 levels: a medication guide, communication plan, and elements to assure safe use. A medication guide is used to help prevent serious adverse events, aid in patients' decision making, and enhance medication adherence. Communication plans help educate health care providers and encourage adherence with REMS. The elements to assure safe use is a restrictive process implemented when it is deemed necessary to ensure safe access for patients to products with known serious risks. In transplant medicine, REMS currently exist for belatacept (medication guide and communication plan) and the mycophenolic acid derivatives (medication guide and elements to assure safe use). REMS are another step in the evolution of the development and marketing of pharmaceutical agents. Use of REMS in solid-organ transplant is becoming common. Transplant clinicians must provide required patient education and become involved with other aspects of REMS implementation to reduce the serious risks of pharmaceuticals and to improve patients' outcomes.

  7. Novel technologies and an overall strategy to allow hazard assessment and risk prediction of chemicals, cosmetics, and drugs with animal-free methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leist, Marcel; Lidbury, Brett A; Yang, Chihae; Hayden, Patrick J; Kelm, Jens M; Ringeissen, Stephanie; Detroyer, Ann; Meunier, Jean R; Rathman, James F; Jackson, George R; Stolper, Gina; Hasiwa, Nina

    2012-01-01

    Several alternative methods to replace animal experiments have been accepted by legal bodies. An even larger number of tests are under development or already in use for non-regulatory applications or for the generation of information stored in proprietary knowledge bases. The next step for the use of the different in vitro methods is their combination into integrated testing strategies (ITS) to get closer to the overall goal of predictive "in vitro-based risk evaluation processes." We introduce here a conceptual framework as the basis for future ITS and their use for risk evaluation without animal experiments. The framework allows incorporation of both individual tests and already integrated approaches. Illustrative examples for elements to be incorporated are drawn from the session "Innovative technologies" at the 8th World Congress on Alternatives and Animal Use in the Life Sciences, held in Montreal, 2011. For instance, LUHMES cells (conditionally immortalized human neurons) were presented as an example for a 2D cell system. The novel 3D platform developed by InSphero was chosen as an example for the design and use of scaffold-free, organotypic microtissues. The identification of critical pathways of toxicity (PoT) may be facilitated by approaches exemplified by the MatTek 3D model for human epithelial tissues with engineered toxicological reporter functions. The important role of in silico methods and of modeling based on various pre-existing data is demonstrated by Altamira's comprehensive approach to predicting a molecule's potential for skin irritancy. A final example demonstrates how natural variation in human genetics may be overcome using data analytic (pattern recognition) techniques borrowed from computer science and statistics. The overall hazard and risk assessment strategy integrating these different examples has been compiled in a graphical work flow.

  8. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

    2018-01-01

    Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

  9. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  10. A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, P.; Zennaro, F.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Santini, M.; Trabucco, A.; Zollo, A. L.; Galluccio, G.; Marcomini, A.

    2017-12-01

    In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, raising frequency, duration and intensity of drought events, mainly driven by climate change dynamics, are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, limiting crop development and yield especially where agriculture largely depends on irrigation. The achievement of an affordable and sustainable equilibrium between available water resources and irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. The present study proposed a state-of-the art conceptual framework and computational methodology to assess the potential water scarcity risk, due to changes in climate trends and variability, on irrigated croplands. The model has been tested over the irrigated agriculture of Puglia Region, a semi-arid territory with the largest agricultural production in Southern Italy. The methodology, based on the Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, has been applied within a scenario-based hazard framework. Regional climate projections, under alternative greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and for two different timeframes, 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 compared to the baseline 1976-2005 period, have been used to drive hydrological simulations of river inflow to the most important reservoirs serving irrigation purposes in Puglia. The novelty of the proposed RRA-based approach does not simply rely on the concept of risk as combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, but rather elaborates detailed (scientific and conceptual) framing and computational description of these factors, to produce risk spatial pattern maps and related statistics distinguishing the most critical areas (risk hot spots).. The application supported the identification of the most affected areas (i.e. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia under RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario), crops (fruit trees and vineyards), and, finally, the vulnerability

  11. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  12. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  13. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  14. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  15. [Assessment of a transfusion emergent risk: the case of HEV].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillonel, J; Gallian, P; Sommen, C; Couturier, E; Piquet, Y; Djoudi, R; Laperche, S

    2014-11-01

    The risk assessment for blood transfusion is an essential step that must precede any screening strategy of a pathogen transmitted by transfusion. After several cases of HEV transmission by transfusion in France, a risk assessment for this virus was performed. We used a method based on the prevalence of HEV-RNA in plasmas collected for the preparation of SD-plasma. To estimate the rate of HEV-RNA positive among all blood donations, data on SD-plasma were adjusted on the following HEV risk factors: gender, age group and region of residence. We assumed that HEV risk factors were the same in plasma donors and whole blood donors. Among 57,101 plasma donations tested for HEV-RNA in 2013, 24 were positive (crude rate of 4.2 per 10,000 donations). After adjustment, the total number of HEV-RNA positive blood donations was estimated at 788, accounting for a rate of 2.65 per 10,000 donations (95% CI: 1.6-3.7) or 1 in 3800 donations (1 in 6,200-1 in 2,700). This rate was 12 times higher in men than in women, increased with age, and varied according to region of residence. The risk of blood donation contamination by HEV has been estimated to be 1 in 3800 donations in 2013. An essential input is still missing to assess now the risk in recipients: the minimum infectious dose. Furthermore, the risk in recipients has to be analyzed according to characteristics of transfused patients: presence of anti-HEV immunity, existence of chronic liver disease or immunodeficiency. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  16. The Strategies of Heterosexuals from Large Metropolitan Areas for Assessing the Risks of Exposure to HIV or Other Sexually Transmitted Infections from Partners Met Online.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, Karolynn; Lekas, Helen-Maria; Onaga, Marie; Verni, Rachel; Gunn, Hamish

    2017-04-01

    Heterosexuals' use of the Internet for meeting romantic or sexual partners is rapidly increasing, raising concerns about the Internet's potential to facilitate encounters that place individuals at risk for acquiring HIV or other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). For example, online sharing of personal information and self-revelations can foster virtual intimacy, promoting a false sense of familiarity that might accelerate progression to unprotected sex. Therefore, it is critical to understand how those who meet sexual partners online attempt to assess the possible risk of acquiring HIV or STIs posed by having unprotected sex with a new partner and decide whether to use a condom. To investigate this issue, in-depth interviews were conducted with a diverse sample of heterosexual male and female participants from large metropolitan cities who had had unprotected vaginal or anal sex with at least two partners met online in the past 3 months. With few exceptions, participants relied on faulty strategies and heuristics to estimate these risks; yet, most engaged in unprotected sex at their first meeting or very soon afterward. While some seemed to try to make a genuine effort to arrive at a reliable assessment of the HIV risk posed, most appeared to be looking for a way to justify their desire and intention to have unprotected sex. The findings suggest the need for more HIV and sexual health education targeted at heterosexuals, especially for those who go online to meet partners.

  17. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  18. Understanding Suicide Across the Lifespan: A United States Perspective of Suicide Risk Factors, Assessment & Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Ian H; Thrower, Natasha; Noroian, Paul; Saleh, Fabian M

    2018-01-01

    Suicide is a troubling, preventable phenomenon. Prior to attempts, individuals often seek help, prompting practitioners to perform risk assessments that ideally use evidence-based risk management strategies. A literature review was performed using Harvard Countway Library of Medicine, Google Scholar, PubMed. Key words used were "Forensic Science," "Suicide Risk Management," "Pediatric Suicide Risk Factors," "Adult Suicide Risk Factors," "Geriatric Suicide Risk Factors," "Suicide Risk Assessment." Parameters limited articles to studies/reviews completed in the past twenty years in the United States. Results indicated predictors of suicide in juveniles were insomnia, burdensomeness, and recent conflicts with family or a romantic partner. Adults had greater risk if male, substance abusing, with marital/job loss. Elderly individuals with multiple medical comorbidities, hopelessness, and isolation were at higher risk. Everyone evaluated should be screened for access to firearms. Management of suicide risk involves providing the least restrictive form of treatment which maintains an individual's safety. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  19. Application of adversarial risk analysis model in pricing strategies with remanufacturing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liurui Deng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Purpose: This paper mainly focus on the application of adversarial risk analysis (ARA in pricing strategy with remanufacturing. We hope to obtain more realistic results than classical model. Moreover, we also wish that our research improve the development of ARA in pricing strategy of manufacturing or remanufacturing. Approach: In order to gain more actual research, combining adversarial risk analysis, we explore the pricing strategy with remanufacturing based on Stackelberg model. Especially, we build OEM’s 1-order ARA model and further study on manufacturers and remanufacturers’ pricing strategy. Findings: We find the OEM’s 1-order ARA model for the OEM’s product cost C. Besides, we get according manufacturers and remanufacturers’ pricing strategies. Besides, the pricing strategies based on 1-order ARA model have advantage over than the classical model regardless of OEMs and remanufacturers. Research implications: The research on application of ARA imply that we can get more actual results with this kind of modern risk analysis method and ARA can be extensively in pricing strategies of supply chain. Value: Our research improves the application of ARA in remanufacturing industry. Meanwhile, inspired by this analysis, we can also create different ARA models for different parameters. Furthermore, some results and analysis methods can be applied to other pricing strategies of supply chain.

  20. Cornerstones of the Austrian radon risk communication strategy; Eckpfeiler der oesterreichischen Radonrisikokommunikationsstrategie (OeRRKS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kunte, A.; Ringer, W. [AGES, Linz (Austria). Oesterreichische Fachstelle fuer Radon

    2015-07-01

    On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management (BMLFUW), the National Radon Centre of Austria developed the National Radon Risk Communication Strategy. The superior goal is the reduction of the radon exposure of Austrian citizens as well as the reduction of radon-related lung cancer deaths. Austria, like many other countries, follows the approach to raise awareness and to inform the public to achieve this goal. The presented strategy deals with the question of how radon protection issues can be communicated to the public, existing fears can be reduced and affected people can be motivated to take action (perform a radon test, if necessary, mitigate or install preventive measures in new buildings). The cornerstones of the National Radon Risk Communication Strategy can be summarized as follows: - Definition of communication goals - Identification and categorization of target groups - Development of specific key messages for each of the target groups - Determination of communication channels and assessment of their efficiency - Integration of the radon issue in education and training - Cooperation with relevant organizations and platforms. The communication objectives, target groups and communication paths (and their evaluation) will be discussed during the presentation in detail.

  1. Application of the Risk Map for Assessment Destructive Effects of Essential Environment on the Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladlena Sergeevna Atkina

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the problem of the business continuity as a necessary element of the strategy of information security. The analysis of the requirements of federal legislation, standards, recommendations and guidelines to ensure the availability, disaster recovery, and recovery of data and information structures of organizations in their operation was conducted. The proposed approach to assessing the possible destabilizing factors and emergency situations includes the model of the environment where the information systems are operational processing key business processes of the organization, and the method for risk assessment to each of the destabilizing effects. Technique of risk assessment expects to use quantitative and qualitative approach to drawing three zone risk maps.

  2. Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ongel, Aybike; Sezgin, Fatih

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.

  3. Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ongel, Aybike, E-mail: aybike.ongel@eng.bahcesehir.edu.tr [Bahcesehir University, Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul 34353 (Turkey); Sezgin, Fatih, E-mail: fatih.sezgin@ibb.gov.tr [Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, Environmental Protection Agency, Istanbul 34169 (Turkey)

    2016-01-15

    In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways. - Highlights: • Transportation noise has a significant effect on health. • Noise should be included in the environmental assessment of transportation systems. • Traffic noise abatement measures include noise reducing pavements and speed limits. • Noise abatement measures help reduce the health risks of transportation noise. • Speed limit reduction on uncongested roads is an effective way to reduce health risks.

  4. [Teaching performance assessment in Public Health employing three different strategies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-González, Adrián; Moreno-Altamirano, Laura; Ponce-Rosas, Efrén Raúl; Martínez-Franco, Adrián Israel; Urrutia-Aguilar, María Esther

    2011-01-01

    The educational system depends upon the quality and performance of their faculty and should therefore be process of continuous improvement. To assess the teaching performance of the Public Health professors, at the Faculty of Medicine, UNAM through three strategies. Justification study. The evaluation was conducted under a mediational model through three strategies: students' opinion assessment, self-assessment and students' academic achievement. We applied descriptive statistics, Student t test, ANOVA and Pearson correlation. Twenty professors were evaluated from the Public Health department, representing 57% of all them who teach the subject. The professor's performance was highly valued self-assessment compared with assessment of student opinion, was confirmed by statistical analysis the difference was significant. The difference amongst the three evaluation strategies became more evident between self-assessment and the scores obtained by students in their academic achievement. The integration of these three strategies offers a more complete view of the teacher's performance quality. Academic achievement appears to be a more objective strategy for teaching performance assessment than students' opinion and self-assessment.

  5. Guidelines for integrated risk assessment and management in large industrial areas. Inter-Agency programme on the assessment and management of health and environmental risks from energy and other complex industrial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The IAEA, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) within the framework of the Awareness and Preparedness for Emergencies at Local Level (APELL), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) decided in 1986 to join forces in order to promote the use of integrated area wide approaches to risk management. An Inter-Agency Programme, which brings together expertise in health the environment, industry and energy, all vital for effective risk management, was established. The Inter-Agency Programme on the assessment and Management of Health and Environmental Risks from Energy and Other Complex Industrial Systems aims at promoting and facilitating the implementation of integrated risk assessment and management for large industrial areas. This initiative includes the compilation of procedures and methods for environmental and public health risk assessment, the transfer of knowledge and experience amongst countries in the application of these procedures and the implementation of an integrated approach to risk management. The purpose of the Inter-Agency Programme is to develop a broad approach to the identification, prioritization and minimization of industrial hazards in a given geographical area. The UN organizations sponsoring this programme have been involved for several years in activities aimed at assessment and management of environmental and health risks, prevention of major accidents and emergency preparedness. These Guidelines have been developed on the basis of experience from these activities to assist in the planning and conduct of regional risk management projects. They provide a reference framework for the undertaking of integrated health and environmental risk assessment for large industrial areas and for the formulation of appropriate risk management strategies

  6. Guidelines for integrated risk assessment and management in large industrial areas. Inter-Agency programme on the assessment and management of health and environmental risks from energy and other complex industrial systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    The IAEA, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) within the framework of the Awareness and Preparedness for Emergencies at Local Level (APELL), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) decided in 1986 to join forces in order to promote the use of integrated area wide approaches to risk management. An Inter-Agency Programme, which brings together expertise in health the environment, industry and energy, all vital for effective risk management, was established. The Inter-Agency Programme on the assessment and Management of Health and Environmental Risks from Energy and Other Complex Industrial Systems aims at promoting and facilitating the implementation of integrated risk assessment and management for large industrial areas. This initiative includes the compilation of procedures and methods for environmental and public health risk assessment, the transfer of knowledge and experience amongst countries in the application of these procedures and the implementation of an integrated approach to risk management. The purpose of the Inter-Agency Programme is to develop a broad approach to the identification, prioritization and minimization of industrial hazards in a given geographical area. The UN organizations sponsoring this programme have been involved for several years in activities aimed at assessment and management of environmental and health risks, prevention of major accidents and emergency preparedness. These Guidelines have been developed on the basis of experience from these activities to assist in the planning and conduct of regional risk management projects. They provide a reference framework for the undertaking of integrated health and environmental risk assessment for large industrial areas and for the formulation of appropriate risk management strategies. Refs, figs, tabs.

  7. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  9. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  10. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  11. Towards a Proactive Risk Mitigation Strategy at La Fossa Volcano, Vulcano Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biass, S.; Gregg, C. E.; Frischknecht, C.; Falcone, J. L.; Lestuzzi, P.; di Traglia, F.; Rosi, M.; Bonadonna, C.

    2014-12-01

    A comprehensive risk assessment framework was built to develop proactive risk reduction measures for Vulcano Island, Italy. This framework includes identification of eruption scenarios; probabilistic hazard assessment, quantification of hazard impacts on the built environment, accessibility assessment on the island and risk perception study. Vulcano, a 21 km2 island with two primary communities host to 900 permanent residents and up to 10,000 visitors during summer, shows a strong dependency on the mainland for basic needs (water, energy) and relies on a ~2 month tourism season for its economy. The recent stratigraphy reveals a dominance of vulcanian and subplinian eruptions, producing a range of hazards acting at different time scales. We developed new methods to probabilistically quantify the hazard related to ballistics, lahars and tephra for all eruption styles. We also elaborated field- and GIS- based methods to assess the physical vulnerability of the built environment and created dynamic models of accessibility. Results outline the difference of hazard between short and long-lasting eruptions. A subplinian eruption has a 50% probability of impacting ~30% of the buildings within days after the eruption, but the year-long damage resulting from a long-lasting vulcanian eruption is similar if tephra is not removed from rooftops. Similarly, a subplinian eruption results in a volume of 7x105 m3 of material potentially remobilized into lahars soon after the eruption. Similar volumes are expected for a vulcanian activity over years, increasing the hazard of small lahars. Preferential lahar paths affect critical infrastructures lacking redundancy, such as the road network, communications systems, the island's only gas station, and access to the island's two evacuation ports. Such results from hazard, physical and systemic vulnerability help establish proactive volcanic risk mitigation strategies and may be applicable in other island settings.

  12. A complete audit cycle to assess adherence to a lung protective ventilation strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joynes, Emma; Dalay, Satinder; Patel, Jaimin M; Fayek, Samia

    2014-11-01

    There is clear evidence for the use of a protective ventilation protocol in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). There is evidence to suggest that protective ventilation is beneficial in patients at risk of ARDS. A protective ventilation strategy was implemented on our intensive care unit in critical care patients who required mechanical ventilation for over 48 h, with and at risk for ARDS. A complete audit cycle was performed over 13 months to assess compliance with a safe ventilation protocol in intensive care. The ARDS network mechanical ventilation protocol was used as the standard for our protective ventilation strategy. This recommends ventilation with a tidal volume (V t) of 6 ml/kg of ideal body weight (IBW) and plateau airway pressure of ≤30 cm H2O. The initial audit failed to meet this standard with V t's of 9.5 ml/kg of IBW. Following the implementation of a ventilation strategy and an educational program, we demonstrate a significant improvement in practice with V t's of 6.6 ml/kg of IBW in the re-audit. This highlights the importance of simple interventions and continuous education in maintaining high standards of care.

  13. A normative model for assessing competitive strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ungerer, Gerard David

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The hyper-competitive nature of e-business has raised the need for a generic way to appraise the merit of a developed business strategy. Although progress has been made in the domain of strategy evaluation, the established literature differs over the ‘tests’ that a strategy must pass to be considered well-constructed. This paper therefore investigates the existing strategy-evaluation literature to propose a more integrated and comprehensive normative strategic assessment that can be used to evaluate and refine a business’ s competitive strategy , adding to its robustness and survivability.

  14. Subjective Risk Assessment and Perception in the Greek and English Bakery Industries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evangelos C. Alexopoulos

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Several factors influencing risk perception in the area of occupational health and safety are known, but there is still lack of a full understanding of the ways in which people characterize risk. This study aimed to provide an insight of employee risk assessment and perception in the bakery industry. 87 British and 64 Greek employees in two comparable bakery companies were asked to estimate and evaluate hazards at their workplace. The participants' judgments of 12 hazards—according to 7 risk aspects—were collected and analyzed. Subjective assessment on important occupational hazards included handling heavy loads, repetitiveness, high temperatures, high rate of work, stressful deadlines, and noise. Although limited in the population involved, our findings revealed strong cross-national differences in employee risk perception of specific groups of hazards in the bakery industry. Additional interviews revealed evidence that Greek employees' risk perception depends mostly on work experience while British employees were aware of risks due to company health and safety policy, recognizing that safety is the responsibility of both the management and the worker. Cross-national (cultural factors that influence workforce risk perception and attitudes towards safety have to be taken into account by technical experts and policy makers in the designing of prevention strategies and risk communication.

  15. Subjective Risk Assessment and Perception in the Greek and English Bakery Industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexopoulos, E.C.; Kavadi, Z.; Bakoyannis, G.; Papantonopoulos, S.

    2010-01-01

    Several factors influencing risk perception in the area of occupational health and safety are known, but there is still lack of a full understanding of the ways in which people characterize risk. This study aimed to provide an insight of employee risk assessment and perception in the bakery industry. 87 British and 64 Greek employees in two comparable bakery companies were asked to estimate and evaluate hazards at their workplace. The participants judgments of 12 hazards according to 7 risk aspects were collected and analyzed. Subjective assessment on important occupational hazards included handling heavy loads, repetitiveness, high temperatures, high rate of work, stressful deadlines, and noise. Although limited in the population involved, our findings revealed strong cross-national differences in employee risk perception of specific groups of hazards in the bakery industry. Additional interviews revealed evidence that Greek employees risk perception depends mostly on work experience while British employees were aware of risks due to company health and safety policy, recognizing that safety is the responsibility of both the management and the worker. Cross-national (cultural) factors that influence workforce risk perception and attitudes towards safety have to be taken into account by technical experts and policy makers in the designing of prevention strategies and risk communication.

  16. Risk management: a proposal for communication strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele Fontana

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Disasters related to natural hazards have increased in the last few decades. This increment makes it necessary to develop non-structural risk prevention and mitigation measures to improve people’s safety. An effective non-structural measure that can improve the preparedness of the population is a locally adapted communication campaign that is focused on natural hazards. We have developed a hypothetical communication campaign for a specific area in the north of Italy, in which hydro-geological risk is of considerable importance. The content of the campaign is defined by the combination of the requirements of the law with the results of a survey conducted in the study area. The aim of the survey is to evaluate the level of risk perception among the residents, and their attitudes towards prevention activities. The operative procedure of the campaign is modeled on advertising strategies. The campaign is designed to reach each family, and it is aimed at affecting people’s everyday life through a horizontal communication strategy that involves flyers, billboards, umbrellas and a website. The use of umbrellas as a medium for the campaign is the key. People mostly use umbrellas when it rains. Rain is linked with hydrogeological risk. As the content of the campaign is printed on the umbrellas, each time people use these umbrellas, they remember the campaign. The campaign is integrated into a broader communication program that includes meetings with stakeholders, activities in schools, and public conferences. The final goal is to foster the creation of a shared knowledge about risk in the whole population.

  17. The KnowRISK project: Tools and strategies for risk communication and learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musacchio, Gemma; Amaral Ferreira, Mónica; Falsaperla, Susanna; Piangiamore, Giovanna Lucia; Pino, Nicola Alessandro; Solarino, Stefano; Crescimbene, Massimo; Eva, Elena; Reitano, Danilo; Þorvaldsdottir, Solveig; Sousa Silva, Delta; Rupakhety, Rajesh; Sousa Oliveira, Carlos

    2016-04-01

    Damage of non-structural elements of buildings (i.e. partitions, ceilings, cladding, electrical and mechanical systems and furniture) is known to cause injuries and human losses. Also it has a significant impact on earthquake resilience and is yet being worldwide underestimated. The project KnowRISK (Know your city, Reduce seISmic risK through non-structural elements) is financed by the European Commission to develop prevention measures that may reduce non-structural damage in urban areas. Pilot areas of the project are within the three European participating countries, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy. They were chosen because they are prone to damage level 2 and 3 (EMS-98, European Macroseismic Scale) that typically affects non-structural elements. We will develop and test a risk communication strategy taking into account the needs of households and schools, putting into practice a portfolio of best practice to reduce the most common non-structural vulnerabilities. We will target our actions to different societal groups, considering their cultural background and social vulnerabilities, and implement a participatory approach that will promote engagement and interaction between the scientific community, practitioners and citizens to foster knowledge on everyone's own neighborhoods, resilience and vulnerability. A Practical Guide for citizens will highlight that low-cost actions can be implemented to increase safety of households, meant as being the places where the most vulnerable societal groups, including children and elderly people, spend much of their time. Since our actions towards communication will include education, we will define tools that allow a clear and direct understanding of elements exposed to risk. Schools will be one of our target societal groups and their central role played at the community level will ensure spreading and strengthening of the communication process. Schools are often located in old or re-adapted buildings, formerly used for

  18. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  19. Risk management strategies utilized by small scale poultry farmers ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Birds can only tolerate narrow temperature changes; therefore, poultry flocks are vulnerable to climate induced risk. This study investigated risk management strategies utilized by small scale poultry farmers in Oyo state. A total of 118 respondents were sampled using multi stage sampling procedure. Interview schedule was ...

  20. A normative model for assessing competitive strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Ungerer, Gerard David; Cayzer, Steve

    2016-01-01

    The hyper-competitive nature of e-business has raised the need for a generic way to appraise the merit of a developed business strategy. Although progress has been made in the domain of strategy evaluation, the established literature differs over the ‘tests’ that a strategy must pass to be considered well-constructed. This paper therefore investigates the existing strategy-evaluation literature to propose a more integrated and comprehensive normative strategic assessment that can be used to e...

  1. Factsheets for the (eco)toxicological risk assessment strategy of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Part VI

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen PJCM; Burg W ter; Pelgrom SMGJ; Fleuren R; SIR; SEC

    2007-01-01

    This report contains four factsheets describing risk assessment methods used at the Centre for Substances and Integral Risk Assessment (SIR) and the Expert Centre for Substances (SEC) of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). The first three factsheets concern human

  2. Traceability and Risk Analysis Strategies for Addressing Counterfeit Electronics in Supply Chains for Complex Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMase, Daniel; Collier, Zachary A; Carlson, Jinae; Gray, Robin B; Linkov, Igor

    2016-10-01

    Within the microelectronics industry, there is a growing concern regarding the introduction of counterfeit electronic parts into the supply chain. Even though this problem is widespread, there have been limited attempts to implement risk-based approaches for testing and supply chain management. Supply chain risk management tends to focus on the highly visible disruptions of the supply chain instead of the covert entrance of counterfeits; thus counterfeit risk is difficult to mitigate. This article provides an overview of the complexities of the electronics supply chain, and highlights some gaps in risk assessment practices. In particular, this article calls for enhanced traceability capabilities to track and trace parts at risk through various stages of the supply chain. Placing the focus on risk-informed decision making through the following strategies is needed, including prioritization of high-risk parts, moving beyond certificates of conformance, incentivizing best supply chain management practices, adoption of industry standards, and design and management for supply chain resilience. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  4. Exploring alternative assessment strategies in science classrooms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michèle Stears

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The knowledge children bring to the classroom or construct in the classroom may find expression in a variety of activities and is often not measurable with the traditional assessment instruments used in science classrooms. Different approaches to assessment are required to accommodate the various ways in which learners construct knowledge in social settings. In our research we attempted to determine the types of outcomes achieved in a Grade 6 classroom where alternative strategies such as interactive assessments were implemented. Analyses of these outcomes show that the learners learned much more than the tests indicate, although what they learnt was not necessarily science. The implications for assessment are clear: strategies that assess knowledge of science concepts, as well as assessment of outcomes other than science outcomes, are required if we wish to gain a holistic understanding of the learning that occurs in science classrooms.

  5. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  6. Assessment of two BWR accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hodge, S.A.; Petek, M.

    1994-01-01

    Candidate mitigative strategies for the management of in-vessel events during the late phase (after-core degradation has occurred) of postulated boiling water reactor (BWR) severe accidents were considered at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) during 1990. The identification of new strategies was subject to the constraint that they should, to the maximum extent possible, make use of the existing equipment and water resources of the BWR facilities, and not require major equipment modifications or additions. As a result of this effort, two of these candidate strategies were recommended for further assessment. The first was a strategy for containment flooding to maintain the core and structural debris within the reactor vessel in the event that vessel injection cannot be restored to terminate a severe accident sequence. The second strategy pertained to the opposite case, for which vessel injection would be restored after control blade melting had begun; its purpose was to provide an injection source of borated water at the concentration necessary to preclude criticality upon recovering a damaged BWR core. Assessments of these two strategies were performed during 1991 and this paper provides a discussion of the motivation for and purpose of these strategies, and the potential for their success. ((orig.))

  7. Health, Safety and Environmental Risk Assessment in Laboratory Sites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: ”Exposing to danger” or in other words, “risk” is a process which is led to an uncertain result in every field. Project risks are uncertain contingent events or situations that if they occur will have positive or negative effects on project’s objectives. Todays, research and educational process and more complicated and the professional risk management become much more difficult, as a result. .Material and Method: In this research, the health and safety issues have been studied and analyzed using ISO 14121 and the environmental issues by EMEA to determine the risk level separately for research laboratories and to prioritize corrective measure in each field (school. .Result: The finding in this study showed that from all the main risks within the rage of 38-86 percent have been decreased. Moreover average of the risk level for the health, safety and environment cases showed a significant decrease (Pvalue<0.0001 by implement controlling and protective countermeasures compariy to the priority state without any measures. . Conclusion: The risk assessment with hazards control strategy based on ISO 14121 is a compatible method in laboratory site as universities and other reasearch sites.

  8. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  9. Complementary use of life cycle assessment and risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials: Lessons learned from chemicals?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara D.; Laurent, Alexis; Miseljic, Mirko

    2013-01-01

    Successful strategies to handle the potential health and environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENM) often rely upon the well-established frameworks of life cycle assessment (LCA) and risk assessment (RA). However, current research and specific guidance on how to actually apply these two...... scientific research efforts have taken into account some key lessons learned from past experiences with chemicals at the same time that many key challenges remain to applying these frameworks to ENM. In that setting, two main proposed approaches to use LCA and RA together for ENM are identified: i) LC......-based RA, similar to traditional RA applied in a life cycle perspective, and ii) RA-complemented LCA, similar to conventional LCA supplemented by RA in specific life cycle steps. This study finds that these two approaches for using LCA and RA together for ENM are similar to those made for chemicals...

  10. The effects of rhythm control strategies versus rate control strategies for atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sethi, Naqash; Safi, Sanam; Nielsen, Emil E

    2017-01-01

    by Jakobsen and colleagues. We plan to include all relevant randomised clinical trials assessing the effects of any rhythm control strategy versus any rate control strategy. We plan to search the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, Science Citation Index Expanded...... on Web of Science, and BIOSIS to identify relevant trials. Any eligible trial will be assessed and classified as either high risk of bias or low risk of bias, and our conclusions will be based on trials with low risk of bias. The analyses of the extracted data will be performed using Review Manager 5....... This protocol for a systematic review aims at identifying the best overall treatment strategy for atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter. METHODS: This protocol for a systematic review was performed following the recommendations of the Cochrane Collaboration and the eight-step assessment procedure suggested...

  11. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  12. Prevention of MSD within OHSMS/IMS: a systematic review of risk assessment strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdani, Amin; Wells, Richard

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this systematic review was to identify and summarize the research evidence on prevention of Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSD) within Occupational Health and Safety Management Systems (OHSMS) and Integrated Management Systems (IMS). Databases in business, management, engineering and health and safety were systematically searched and relevant publications were synthesized. The number of papers that could address the research questions was small. However, the review revealed that many of the techniques to address MSD hazards require substantial background knowledge and training. This may limit employees' involvement in the technical aspects of the risk assessment process. Also these techniques did not usually fit into techniques used by companies to address other risk factors within their management systems. This could result in MSD prevention becoming a separate issue that cannot be managed with company-wide tools. In addition, this review also suggested that there is a research gap concerning the MSD prevention within companies' management systems.

  13. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  14. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  15. Assessing Risks of Mine Tailing Dam Failures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha Larrauri, P.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    The consequences of tailings dam failures can be catastrophic for communities and ecosystems in the vicinity of the dams. The failure of the Fundão tailings dam at the Samarco mine in 2015 killed 19 people with severe consequences for the environment. The financial and legal consequences of a tailings dam failure can also be significant for the mining companies. For the Fundão tailings dam, the company had to pay 6 billion dollars in fines and twenty-one executives were charged with qualified murder. There are tenths of thousands of active, inactive, and abandoned tailings dams in the world and there is a need to better understand the hazards posed by these structures to downstream populations and ecosystems. A challenge to assess the risks of tailings dams in a large scale is that many of them are not registered in publicly available databases and there is little information about their current physical state. Additionally, hazard classifications of tailings dams - common in many countries- tend to be subjective, include vague parameter definitions, and are not always updated over time. Here we present a simple methodology to assess and rank the exposure to tailings dams using ArcGIS that removes subjective interpretations. The method uses basic information such as current dam height, storage volume, topography, population, land use, and hydrological data. A hazard rating risk was developed to compare the potential extent of the damage across dams. This assessment provides a general overview of what in the vicinity of the tailings dams could be affected in case of a failure and a way to rank tailings dams that is directly linked to the exposure at any given time. One hundred tailings dams in Minas Gerais, Brazil were used for the test case. This ranking approach could inform the risk management strategy of the tailings dams within a company, and when disclosed, it could enable shareholders and the communities to make decisions on the risks they are taking.

  16. Benchmarking Outdoor Expeditionary Program Risk Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerts-Brandsma, Lisa; Furman, Nate; Sibthorp, Jim

    2017-01-01

    In 2003, the University of Utah and the National Outdoor Leadership School (NOLS) completed a study that developed a risk management taxonomy in the outdoor adventure industry and assessed how different outdoor expeditionary programs (OEPs) managed risk (Szolosi, Sibthorp, Paisley, & Gookin, 2003). By unifying the language around risk, the…

  17. Perceived Preparedness of Health Care Students for Providing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Zolezzi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Early assessment and management of risk factors is known to have significant impact in preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD and its associated burden. Cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management (CVDRAM is best approached by teamwork across health care professionals. This study aimed at assessing health care students’ (HCSs knowledge about the parameters needed for estimating CVD risk, their self-assessed preparedness/confidence and perceived barriers for the provision of CVDRAM services through a survey administered to third and fourth year pharmacy, medical, and nursing students in Qatar. Although all student cohorst achieved similar knowledge scores, less than half (n = 38, 47% were able to identify all of the six main risk factors necessary to estimate absolute CVD risk, and a third (32% were unable to identify total cholesterol as an independent risk factor necessary to estimate CVD risk. Training on the use of CVD risk assessment tools differed among the three student cohorts. All student cohorts also perceived similar levels of preparedness in CVDRAM. However, pharmacy students reported the highest preparedness/confidence with the use of the latest CVDRAM guidelines. The majority of statements listed under the barriers scale were perceived by the students as being moderate (median score = 3. Poor public acceptance or unawareness of importance of estimating CVD risk was the only barrier perceived as major by nursing students. Future integration of interprofessional educational (IPE activities in the CVDRAM curricula of HCSs may be a suitable strategy to minimize barriers and foster collaborative practice for the provision of CVDRAM services in Qatar.

  18. Perceived Preparedness of Health Care Students for Providing Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolezzi, Monica; Abdallah, Oraib; Aden, Suad; Major, Stella; White, Diana; El-Awaisi, Alla

    2017-02-21

    Early assessment and management of risk factors is known to have significant impact in preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its associated burden. Cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management (CVDRAM) is best approached by teamwork across health care professionals. This study aimed at assessing health care students' (HCSs) knowledge about the parameters needed for estimating CVD risk, their self-assessed preparedness/confidence and perceived barriers for the provision of CVDRAM services through a survey administered to third and fourth year pharmacy, medical, and nursing students in Qatar. Although all student cohorts achieved similar knowledge scores, less than half ( n = 38, 47%) were able to identify all of the six main risk factors necessary to estimate absolute CVD risk, and a third (32%) were unable to identify total cholesterol as an independent risk factor necessary to estimate CVD risk. Training on the use of CVD risk assessment tools differed among the three student cohorts. All student cohorts also perceived similar levels of preparedness in CVDRAM. However, pharmacy students reported the highest preparedness/confidence with the use of the latest CVDRAM guidelines. The majority of statements listed under the barriers scale were perceived by the students as being moderate (median score = 3). Poor public acceptance or unawareness of importance of estimating CVD risk was the only barrier perceived as a major by nursing students. Future integration of interprofessional educational (IPE) activities in the CVDRAM curricula of HCSs may be a suitable strategy to minimize barriers and foster collaborative practice for the provision of CVDRAM services in Qatar.

  19. Risk perception, risk management and safety assessment: what can governments do to increase public confidence in their vaccine system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Noni E; Smith, Jennifer; Appleton, Mary

    2012-09-01

    For decades vaccine program managers and governments have devoted many resources to addressing public vaccine concerns, vaccine risk perception, risk management and safety assessment. Despite ever growing evidence that vaccines are safe and effective, public concerns continue. Education and evidence based scientific messages have not ended concerns. How can governments and programs more effectively address the public's vaccine concerns and increase confidence in the vaccine safety system? Vaccination hesitation has been attributed to concerns about vaccine safety, perceptions of high vaccine risks and low disease risk and consequences. Even when the public believes vaccines are important for protection many still have concerns about vaccine safety. This overview explores how heuristics affect public perception of vaccines and vaccine safety, how the public finds and uses vaccine information, and then proposes strategies for changes in the approach to vaccine safety communications. Facts and evidence confirming the safety of vaccines are not enough. Vaccine beliefs and behaviours must be shaped. This will require a shift in the what, when, how and why of vaccine risk and benefit communication content and practice. A change to a behavioural change strategy such as the WHO COMBI program that has been applied to disease eradication efforts is suggested. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  1. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  2. Strategy for prioritizing whistleblowing with potential risks related to health services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Fernandes Barros

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Sanitary Surveillance of Health Services receives daily denunciations that refer to situations of risk that can hardly be measured quantitatively and attribute to some type of specific damage, in a context of great uncertainty. Objective: Considering such situations should be adequately addressed under the health risk paradigm, this work had as objective identifying notions about risk and its forms of analysis in the scope of Sanitary Surveillance of Health Services, as well as the existence of strategies and models in the analysis and treatment of denunciations. Method: An extensive literature review (through the Regional Portal of the BVS, databases SciELO and SciELO Books, and the journal Visa em Debate was conducted. Results: Although the results point to a relatively recent discussion regarding the model of potential risk analysis as an operational concept for the field of health surveillance in health services, there is no description of strategies or models applied to the analysis or treatment of whistleblowing. Thus, it is discussed and proposed a strategy for the initial analysis of reports with potential risk, which seeks to bring minimally objective criteria, in a field marked by enormous subjectivity. Conclusions: We conclude by indicating that the presented strategy is an initial instrument for the management of whistleblowing that must be discussed and adapted to the reality and context of health surveillance agencies.

  3. Developing a Sustainability Assessment Model to Analyze China’s Municipal Solid Waste Management Enhancement Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a sustainability assessment model for analysis and decision-making of the impact of China’s municipal solid waste management enhancement strategy options based on three waste treatment scenarios: landfill disposal, waste-to-energy incineration, and a combination of a material recovery facility and composting. The model employs life cycle assessment, health risk assessment, and full cost accounting to evaluate the treatment scenarios regarding safeguarding public health, protecting the environment and conserving resources, and economic feasibility. The model then uses an analytic hierarchy process for an overall appraisal of sustainability. Results suggest that a combination of material recovery and composting is the most efficient option. The study results clarify sustainable attributes, suitable predications, evaluation modeling, and stakeholder involvement issues in solid waste management. The demonstration of the use of sustainability assessment model (SAM provides flexibility by allowing assessment for a municipal solid waste management (MSWM strategy on a case-by-case basis, taking into account site-specific factors, therefore it has the potential for flexible applications in different communities/regions.

  4. Fertility drugs, reproductive strategies and ovarian cancer risk

    OpenAIRE

    Tomao, Federica; Lo Russo, Giuseppe; Spinelli, Gian Paolo; Stati, Valeria; Prete, Alessandra Anna; Prinzi, Natalie; Sinjari, Marsela; Vici, Patrizia; Papa, Anselmo; Chiotti, Maria Stefania; Benedetti Panici, Pierluigi; Tomao, Silverio

    2014-01-01

    Several adverse effects have been related to infertility treatments, such as cancer development. In particular, the relationship between infertility, reproductive strategies, and risk of gynecological cancers has aroused much interest in recent years. The evaluation of cancer risk among women treated for infertility is very complex, mainly because of many factors that can contribute to occurrence of cancer in these patients (including parity status). This article addresses the possible associ...

  5. Nighttime parenting strategies and sleep-related risks to infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpe, Lane E; Ball, Helen L; McKenna, James J

    2013-02-01

    A large social science and public health literature addresses infant sleep safety, with implications for infant mortality in the context of accidental deaths and Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS). As part of risk reduction campaigns in the USA, parents are encouraged to place infants supine and to alter infant bedding and elements of the sleep environment, and are discouraged from allowing infants to sleep unsupervised, from bed-sharing either at all or under specific circumstances, or from sofa-sharing. These recommendations are based on findings from large-scale epidemiological studies that generate odds ratios or relative risk statistics for various practices; however, detailed behavioural data on nighttime parenting and infant sleep environments are limited. To address this issue, this paper presents and discusses the implications of four case studies based on overnight observations conducted with first-time mothers and their four-month old infants. These case studies were collected at the Mother-Baby Behavioral Sleep Lab at the University of Notre Dame USA between September 2002 and June 2004. Each case study provides a detailed description based on video analysis of sleep-related risks observed while mother-infant dyads spent the night in a sleep lab. The case studies provide examples of mothers engaged in the strategic management of nighttime parenting for whom sleep-related risks to infants arose as a result of these strategies. Although risk reduction guidelines focus on eliminating potentially risky infant sleep practices as if the probability of death from each were equal, the majority of instances in which these occur are unlikely to result in infant mortality. Therefore, we hypothesise that mothers assess potential costs and benefits within margins of risk which are not acknowledged by risk-reduction campaigns. Exploring why mothers might choose to manage sleep and nighttime parenting in ways that appear to increase potential risks to infants may

  6. A Strategy For Teaching Sustainability Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    2010-01-01

    of their decisions. Our strategy for the teaching address three target groups and follows two routes.  One route provides in-depth education for students aiming to specialise in quantitative sustainability assessment. A variety of courses ranging from production level through company level to society level...... will be offered.  The second route aims to present concepts of sustainability and potential impacts of the specific technology field as well as methods and tools for specific domains, i.e. nano technology. It is targeted two groups of students at the different technological domains at DTU; those specifically...... for that technology domain and introduces quantitative tools to assess sustainability. The proposed strategy embeds sustainability throughout the engineering curriculum....

  7. Risk and environmental impact assessment: nuclear and environmental licensing interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Eduardo M.; Monteiro, Iara A.

    1997-01-01

    The main aims of this paper are the identification and discussion of interfaces and application of common concepts in the existing nuclear and environmental licensing procedures. Risk and impact assessment of nuclear electricity generation are two of these concepts which are discussed detail. The risk concept, which had initially focused on engineering projects, has been extended to many other areas of human activity. Risk resulting from the use of ionization radiation has been associated to the dose for the critical members of the public. Therefore, radiation protection applies basic dose limits which are established in national and international recommendations. These recommendations are increasing the emphasis to keep all the exposures to ionizing radiation as low as reasonable achievable, economical and social factors being taken into account. On the other hand, environmental impact assessment has been used as a tool in planning and decision-making processes, thus including environmental concern in the discussion of social and economical development strategies. This paper aims to discuss the association of these two concepts by presenting the procedures of control of radiological impact during normal operation of a nuclear power plant and the various forms of risk communication to the public in the case of events occurrence. (author). 13 refs

  8. GFC-Robust Risk Management Strategies under the Basel Accord

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. McAleer (Michael); J.A. Jiménez-Martín (Juan-Ángel); T. Pérez-Amaral (Teodosio)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractA risk management strategy is proposed as being robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast is based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional

  9. Assessing Students' Metacognitive Awareness of Reading Strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhtari, Kouider; Reichard, Carla A.

    2002-01-01

    Describes development and validation of a new self-report instrument, the Metacognitive Awareness of Reading Strategies Inventory, designed to assess adolescent and adult readers' metacognitive awareness and perceived use of reading strategies while reading academic materials. After a brief review of the literature, the development and validation…

  10. Assessing social risks prior to commencement of a clinical trial: due diligence or ethical inflation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burris, Scott; Davis, Corey

    2009-11-01

    Assessing social risks has proven difficult for IRBs. We undertook a novel effort to empirically investigate social risks before an HIV prevention trial among drug users in Thailand and China. The assessment investigated whether law, policies and enforcement strategies would place research subjects at significantly elevated risk of arrest, incarceration, physical harm, breach of confidentiality, or loss of access to health care relative to drug users not participating in the research. The study validated the investigator's concern that drug users were subject to serious social risks in the site localities, but also suggested that participation in research posed little or no marginal increase in risk and might even have a protective effect. Our experience shows that it is feasible to inform IRB deliberations with actual data on social risks, but also raises the question of whether and when such research is an appropriate use of scare research resources.

  11. Risk communication strategy development using the aerospace systems engineering process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, S.; Sklar, M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explains the goals and challenges of NASA's risk communication efforts and how the Aerospace Systems Engineering Process (ASEP) was used to map the risk communication strategy used at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to achieve these goals.

  12. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  13. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  14. Using an Internet-Based Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool to Improve Social-Cognitive Precursors of Physical Activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Stephanie L; Klein, William M P; Ball, Linda; McGuire, Jaclyn; Colditz, Graham A; Waters, Erika A

    2017-08-01

    Internet-based cancer risk assessment tools might serve as a strategy for translating epidemiological risk prediction research into public health practice. Understanding how such tools affect key social-cognitive precursors of behavior change is crucial for leveraging their potential into effective interventions. To test the effects of a publicly available, Internet-based, breast cancer risk assessment tool on social-cognitive precursors of physical activity. Women (N = 132) aged 40-78 with no personal cancer history indicated their perceived risk of breast cancer and were randomly assigned to receive personalized ( www.yourdiseaserisk.wustl.edu ) or nonpersonalized breast cancer risk information. Immediately thereafter, breast cancer risk perceptions and physical activity-related behavioral intentions, self-efficacy, and response efficacy were assessed. Personalized information elicited higher intentions, self-efficacy, and response efficacy than nonpersonalized information, P values Internet-based risk assessment tools can produce beneficial effects on important social-cognitive precursors of behavior change, but lingering skepticism, possibly due to defensive processing, needs to be addressed before the effects can be maximized.

  15. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  16. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  17. MANAGING RISK BY COORDINATING INVESTMENT, MARKETING, AND PRODUCTION STRATEGIES

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Donald A.; Boehlje, Michael

    1983-01-01

    This study of the farm firm integrates long run investment and financial decisions, and short-run production and marketing decisions into a single decision framework that includes both time and risk. The results suggest that the use of various strategies for managing market risks allow the entrepreneur to accept mores risk in investing and producing; and that an integrated analysis of production, marketing and investment-financing alternatives is essential to make accurate recommendations abo...

  18. Clinical reasoning in nursing: teaching strategies and assessment tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emília Campos de Carvalho

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To present the concept and development of teaching strategies and the assessment tools regarding clinical reasoning for accurate practice. Method: This is a theoretical reflection based on scientific studies. Results: Comprehension of the essential concepts of the thought process and its articulation with the different teaching strategies and the assessment tools which has allowed presenting ways to improve the process of diagnostic or therapeutic clinical reasoning. Conclusion: The use of new strategies and assessment tools should be encouraged in order to contribute to the development of skills that lead to safe and effective decision making.

  19. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  20. Glacial Hazards in Chile: Processes, Assessment, Mitigation and Risk Management Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glasser, N. F.; Wilson, R.; Casassa, G., Sr.; Reynolds, J.; Harrison, S.; Shannon, S. R.; Schaefer, M.; Iribarran, P.

    2017-12-01

    Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are capable of travelling considerable distances from their source and they represent one of the most important glacial hazards. In line with observations in other parts of the world, the frequency of GLOF events in Chile has increased in recent decades highlighting the need to quantify the flood risk posed to downstream areas. This poster presents the work of the `Glacial Hazards in Chile' project which aims to (1) better understand the processes that govern the development of GLOFs in Chile, (2) estimate the socio-economic effects of GLOFs in Chile, and (3) provide a GLOF risk assessment framework that can be applied to Chile and other lower income countries globally. As an initial step towards the completion of these aims, we have recently compiled the first glacial lake inventory for the central and Patagonian Andes, which details the temporal development of glacial lakes in this region over the past three decades. This analysis was used to identify two lakes of interest that were visited during a fieldwork expedition in February 2017. The first of these, Lago Chileno in Patagonia, has recently produced a large GLOF causing significant damage to the downstream floodplain, whilst the second was identified as one of the fastest growing lakes in the central Andes. Both these lakes were surveyed using aerial imagery acquired with a drone and a custom-built bathymetry boat, data from which will help to improve our understanding of the physical processes associated with glacial lake development and failure within the Chilean Andes.

  1. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  2. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2001-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

  3. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  4. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  5. Using a social justice and health framework to assess European climate change adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2014-11-28

    Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents.

  6. Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

    2015-04-01

    Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries

  7. Optimization of the cumulative risk assessment of pesticides and biocides using computational techniques: Pilot project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Svava Osk; Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Petersen, Annette

    This pilot project is intended as the first step in developing a computational strategy to assist in refining methods for higher tier cumulative and aggregate risk assessment of exposure to mixture of pesticides and biocides. For this purpose, physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models were...

  8. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  9. Clinicians' preventive strategies for children and adolescents identified as at high risk of developing caries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmadi, Roxana; Gahnberg, Lars; Gabre, Pia

    2011-05-01

    Clinicians handle diagnosis and treatment planning of caries in different ways, and the underlying factors leading to management of risk and choice of treatment strategies are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to investigate dentists' and dental hygienists' choices of preventive strategies for children and adolescents identified as at high risk of developing caries. A sample of dental records from 432 of a total of 3372 children in a Swedish county identified as at high risk of developing caries, aged 3-19 years, was randomly selected for analysis in the study. Information of importance for the therapists' choice of caries management strategies were obtained from the dental records. The results showed that therapists considered tooth brushing instruction and fluoride treatment at the clinic to be of primary importance as treatment given in 60% of the cases, respectively. Fluoride treatment at home and diet counselling were both chosen in half of the cases. Fissure sealant therapy was used in 21% of the cases, and 15% of the patients did not receive any preventive treatment at all. The results also showed that girls more often received fluoride treatment, tooth brushing instruction and oral hygiene information than boys. In the majority of the children and adolescents, several preventive measures were given. The more background factors included in the risk assessment, the more preventive measures were given. The differences between the treatments given to girls and the boys need to be further investigated. © 2010 The Authors. International Journal of Paediatric Dentistry © 2010 BSPD, IAPD and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Mathematics, Pricing, Market Risk Management and Trading Strategies for Financial Derivatives (2/3)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva; Coffey, Brian

    2009-01-01

    Market Trading and Risk Management of Vanilla FX Options - Measures of Market Risk - Implied Volatility - FX Risk Reversals, FX Strangles - Valuation and Risk Calculations - Risk Management - Market Trading Strategies

  11. Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method The Investment Risk Assessment of Chinese Enterprises in The Countries Along “The Belt and Road”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yanyu; Chai, Huaqi; Huang, Yimiao

    2018-01-01

    “Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation” held in Beijing in May this year. once again, “The Belt and Road” strategic initiative to the world, causing the world’s enthusiastic response. The core of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy initiative is to promote infrastructure construction and interconnection, dock national policies and development strategies, deepen pragmatic cooperation, promote coordinated and coordinated development and achieve common prosperity. With the “The Belt and Road” strategy in-depth, Chinese enterprises will go abroad, in the countries along the country to invest in more and more examples, accompanied by the increasing risk. Analysis of the failure of investment cases, we can easily find that this is the majority of enterprises overseas investment in the lack of careful assessment of risk and risk of foreign investment risk management has a great relationship. In this paper, the risk factors are used to identify the risk factors table, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to estimate the comprehensive risk value of many uncertain factors that cannot be determined by the overseas investment. The risk assessment system is constructed to help Chinese enterprises to follow the " Investment to avoid risks, improve the success rate.

  12. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  13. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  14. Efficiency or equity? Simulating the impact of high-risk and population intervention strategies for the prevention of disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan M. Platt

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Maximizing both efficiency and equity are core considerations for population health. These considerations can result in tension in population health science as we seek to improve overall population health while achieving equitable health distributions within populations. Limited work has explored empirically the consequences of different population health intervention strategies on the burden of disease and on within- and between-group differences in disease. To address this gap, we compared the impact of four simulated interventions using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. In particular, we focus on assessing how population and high-risk primary prevention and population and high-risk secondary interventions efforts to reduce smoking behavior influence systolic blood pressure (SBP and hypertension, and how such strategies influence inequalities in SBP by income. The greatest reductions in SBP mean and standard deviation resulted from the population secondary prevention. High-risk primary and secondary prevention and population secondary prevention programs all yielded substantial reductions in hypertension prevalence. The effect of population primary prevention did little to decrease population SBP mean and standard deviation, as well as hypertension prevalence. Both high-risk strategies had a larger impact in the low-income population, leading to the greatest narrowing the income-related gap in disease. The population prevention strategies had a larger impact in the high-income population. Population health approaches must consider the potential impact on both the whole population and also on those with different levels of risk for disease within a population, including those in under-represented or under-served groups.

  15. Assessing pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic risks in candidates for kidney transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maldonado, Angela Q; Tichy, Eric M; Rogers, Christin C; Campara, Maya; Ensor, Christopher; Doligalski, Christina T; Gabardi, Steven; Descourouez, Jillian L; Doyle, Ian C; Trofe-Clark, Jennifer

    2015-05-15

    Pharmacotherapy concerns and other factors with a bearing on patient selection for kidney transplantation are discussed. The process of selecting appropriate candidates for kidney transplantation involves multidisciplinary assessment to evaluate a patient's mental, social, physical, financial, and medical readiness for successful surgery and good posttransplantation outcomes. Transplantation pharmacists can play important roles in the recognition and stratification of pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic risks in prospective kidney transplant recipients and the identification of issues that require a mitigation strategy. Key pharmacotherapy-related issues and considerations during the risk assessment process include (1) anticoagulation concerns, (2) cytochrome P-450 isoenzyme-mediated drug interactions, (3) mental health-related medication use, (4) chronic pain-related medication use, (5) medication allergies, (6) use of hormonal contraception and replacement therapy, (7) prior or current use of immunosuppressants, (8) issues with drug absorption, (9) alcohol use, (10) tobacco use, (11) active use of illicit substances, and (12) use of herbal supplements. Important areas of nonpharmacologic risk include vaccine delivery, infection prophylaxis and treatment, and socially related factors such as nonadherent behavior, communication barriers, and financial, insurance, or transportation challenges that can compromise posttransplantation outcomes. Consensus opinions of practitioners in transplantation pharmacy regarding the pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic factors that should be considered in assessing candidates for kidney transplantation are presented. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Global Cardiovascular Risk Assessment by Family Physicians in Suez Canal University-Family Medicine Centers-Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nour-Eldein, Hebatallah; Abdelsalam, Shimaa A; Nasr, Gamila M; Abdelwahed, Hassan A

    2013-01-01

    The close sustained contact of family physician with their patients and local community makes preventive care an integral part of their routine work. Most cardiovascular diseases (CVD) can be prevented by addressing their risk factors. There are several guidelines that recommend different CV risk assessment tools to support CV prevention strategies. This study aimed to assess awareness and attitude of global CV risk assessment and use of their tools by family physicians; aiming to improve CV prevention service. The current study is a cross-sectional descriptive analytic. Sixty-five family physicians were asked to respond to, validated anonymous questionnaire to collect data about characteristics of family physicians, their awareness, attitude, current use, barriers, and recommendations of global CV risk assessment. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 18 was used for data entry and analysis. Awareness of guidelines of global CV risk assessment was relatively higher regarding the American guidelines (30.8%) than that recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) for Egypt (20.2%). 50.8% of participants had favorable attitude. There was statistical significant relationship between attitude scores and physician characteristics; age (P = 0.003), qualification (P = 0.001) and number of patients seen per week (P = 0.009). Routine use of global CV risk assessment tools was reported only (23%) by family physicians. Relative higher attitude scores than use of global CV risk assessment tools in practice. The most frequent barriers were related to lack of resources and shortage in training/skills and the raised suggestions were towards training.

  17. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  18. Assessing Stability and Dynamics in Flood Risk Governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hegger, D.L.T.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Dieperink, C.; Wiering, M.A.; Raadgever, G.T.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W. van

    2014-01-01

    European urban agglomerations face increasing flood risks due to urbanization and the effects of climate change. These risks are addressed at European, national and regional policy levels. A diversification and alignment of Flood Risk Management Strategies (FRMSs) can make vulnerable urban

  19. Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic urban environments: RiskScape and the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligne, N. I.; Leonard, G.; King, A.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T.; Lindsay, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Auckland city, home to a third of New Zealand's population, is situated on top of the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), which last erupted roughly 500 years ago. Since 2008, the Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) program has investigated the geologic context of the AVF, improved timing constraints of past eruptions, explored possible tempo-spatial-volume eruption trends, and identified likely styles and hazards of future eruptions. DEVORA is now moving into development of risk and societal models for Auckland. The volcanic module of RiskScape, a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by Crown Research Institutes GNS Science and NIWA, will be expanded and used to model risk and impact to the built environment and population caused by a future AVF eruption. RiskScape models casualties, damage and disruption caused by various hazards, the resulting reduced functionality of assets, and associated clean up costs. A strength of RiskScape is that the effect of various mitigation strategies can be explored by strengthening asset attributes and examining resulting changes in the output risk evaluation. We present our framework for building a volcano hazard exposure module for RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability through the development of fragility functions. We also present the framework for engagement with regional Auckland stakeholders, including representatives of local and regional governments and utility companies, to identify complementary needs to ensure that final risk products are relevant and useable by end users.

  20. Assessment of Abductive Reasoning in Strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guenther, Agnes; Garbuio, Massimo; Eisenbart, Boris

    Strategic tools and frameworks mostly analyse past developments to predict future potentials and rely primarily on deductive/inductive logics. While these logics help decision-makers, they limit the pool of strategic options; resulting strategies often lack novelty. Building on the idea that ‘good......’ and ‘bad’ strategies can be differentiated and that out-of-the-boxthinking creates novel strategies, we analyse differences in strategies’ underlying logics. We develop and test a coding scheme to assess reasoning, in particular abductive reasoning. Furthermore, we introduce the notion of observation set...... and show how analogies, anomalies and paradoxes prompt abductive reasoning and create strategic options....

  1. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  2. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  3. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  4. A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

    2015-12-15

    Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  5. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I. [Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering of NNRU MEPhI (Russian Federation); Studgorodok 1, Obninsk, Kaluga region, 249030 (Russian Federation)

    2013-07-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.

  6. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

    2013-01-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk

  7. The Little Schmidy Pediatric Hospital Fall Risk Assessment Index: A diagnostic accuracy study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franck, Linda S; Gay, Caryl L; Cooper, Bruce; Ezrre, Suzanne; Murphy, Barbette; Chan, June Shu-Ling; Buick, Maureen; Meer, Carrie R

    2017-03-01

    revised 4-item Little Schmidy, the LS4, predicts pediatric falls when administered every day and night shift, but identifies most patients (65%) as being at risk for fall. Strategies for improving the accuracy and efficiency of the assessments are proposed. Further research is needed to develop more effective pediatric fall prevention strategies tailored to patient's age, diagnosis, and time of day. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  9. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  10. Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment in Manizales, Colombia:Quantifying Losses for Insurance Purposes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mario A.Salgado-Gálvez; Gabriel A.Bernal; Daniela Zuloaga; Mabel C.Marulanda; Omar-Darío Cardona; Sebastián Henao

    2017-01-01

    A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales,Colombia,considering assets of different types.The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network,and the second type includes public and private buildings.This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that accounts for the dynamic soil response,assembling high resolution exposure databases,and the development of damage models for different types of elements.The economic appraisal of the exposed assets was developed together with specialists of the water utilities company of Manizales and the city administration.The risk assessment was performed using several Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment modules as well as the R-System,obtaining results in terms of traditional metrics such as loss exceedance curve,average annual loss,and probable maximum loss.For the case of pipelines,repair rates were also estimated.The results for the water and sewage network were used in activities related to the expansion and maintenance strategies,as well as for the exploration of financial retention and transfer alternatives using insurance schemes based on technical,probabilistic,and prospective damage and loss estimations.In the case of the buildings,the results were used in the update of the technical premium values of the existing collective insurance scheme.

  11. The effects of rhythm control strategies versus rate control strategies for atrial fibrillation and atrial flutter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sethi, Naqash J; Feinberg, Joshua; Nielsen, Emil E

    2017-01-01

    -effect meta-analysis and chose the most conservative result as our primary result. We used Trial Sequential Analysis (TSA) to control for random errors. Statistical heterogeneity was assessed by visual inspection of forest plots and by calculating inconsistency (I2) for traditional meta-analyses and diversity...... (D2) for TSA. Sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses were conducted to explore the reasons for substantial statistical heterogeneity. We assessed the risk of publication bias in meta-analyses consisting of 10 trials or more with tests for funnel plot asymmetry. We used GRADE to assess the quality...... of the body of evidence. RESULTS: 25 randomized clinical trials (n = 9354 participants) were included, all of which were at high risk of bias. Meta-analysis showed that rhythm control strategies versus rate control strategies significantly increased the risk of a serious adverse event (risk ratio (RR), 1...

  12. [Strategies for reducing risks in smoking: opportunity or threat].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Córdoba, Rodrigo; Nerín, Isabel

    2009-12-01

    The smoking control policies recommended by the World Health Organisation have achieved a slight decrease in smoking prevalence in the developed countries, although associated mortality is still very high. The use of tobacco products other than cigarettes and even medicinal nicotine (known as nicotine replacement therapy (NRT)) has been proposed as a risk reduction strategy. Among the tobacco products with less individual risk than cigarettes would be any type of tobacco without smoke (smokeless) with a low content in nitrosamines and modified cigarettes; both forms included under the PREP (Potentially Reduced Exposure Products) concept. The idea would be to promote these products among those who cannot quit smoking or wish to reduce their risk without giving up nicotine intake. The possible effects of risk reduction strategies, including PREP, on the decreased prevalence and morbidity and mortality are reviewed, and the possible implications that this measure could have in our country are analysed. Tobacco control measures in Spain are recent and still insufficient. Therefore, the current priority in Spain is the development of policies of control that have shown to more than effective. The marketing and advertising of new tobacco products, even with reduced potential risk, seems more a serious threat than an opportunity for the development of smoking control policies.

  13. Risk management - unappreciated instrument of supply chain management strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wojciech Machowiak

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Unlike Enterprise Risk Management, which is certainly quite well rooted in business practice, Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM still continues to be dynamically developing subject of academic research, whereas its practical applications are rather scarce. Material and methods: On the basis of broad review of the current state of the art in world literature, significant  relevancies to the core processes and enterprise strategy are discussed.   Results: The paper shows some interesting from the enterprise's performance and competitiveness point of view additional benefits, potentially resulting from the proactive, consistent and effective implementation of the SCRM system. Conclusions: Some additional advantages from proactive supply chain risk management account for perceiving SCRM as multifunctional instrument of strategic SC management, exceeding established understanding RM as security and threat-prevention  tool only. Positive influence from SCRM onto SC performance and competitiveness can make reasonable to enhance its position within SCM strategy.

  14. Risk comparison of different treatment and disposal strategies of high level liquid radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang Dong

    1997-01-01

    The risk of different treatment and disposal strategies of high level liquid radioactive waste from spent fuel reprocessing is estimated and compared. The conclusions obtained are that risk difference from these strategies is very small and high level liquid waste can be reduced to middle and low level waste, if the decontamination factor for 99 Tc is large enough, which is the largest risk contributor in the high level radioactive waste from spent fuel reprocessing. It is also shown that the risk of high level radioactive waste could be reduced by the technical strategy of combining partitioning and transmutation

  15. Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, Hiromitsu

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

  16. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  17. Risk Assessment of Arsenic Mitigation Options in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M. Feroze; Shamsuddin, Abu Jafar; Mahmud, Shamsul Gafur; Deere, Daniel

    2006-01-01

    The provision of alternative water sources is the principal arsenic mitigation strategy in Bangladesh, but can lead to risk substitution. A study of arsenic mitigation options was undertaken to assess water quality and sanitary condition and to estimate the burden of disease associated with each technology in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Dugwells and pond-sand filters showed heavy microbial contamination in both dry and monsoon seasons, and the estimated burden of disease was high. Rainwater was of good quality in the monsoon but deteriorated in the dry season. Deep tubewells showed microbial contamination in the monsoon but not in the dry season and was the only technology to approach the World Health Organization's reference level of risk of 10-6 DALYs. A few dugwells and one pond-sand filter showed arsenic in excess of 50 μg/L. The findings suggest that deep tubewells and rainwater harvesting provide safer water than dugwells and pond-sand filters and should be the preferred options. PMID:17366776

  18. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  19. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  20. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  1. Positive Alpha and Negative Beta (A Strategy for Counteracting Systematic Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Sonne Noddeboe

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Undiversifiable (or systematic risk has long been an enemy of investors. Many countercyclical strategies have been developed to counter this. However, like all insurance types, these strategies are generally costly to implement, and over time can significantly reduce portfolio returns in long and extended bull markets. In this paper, we discuss an alternative technique, founded on the premise of physiological bias and risk-aversion. We take a behavioral discussion in order to contextualize the insurance like characteristics of option pricing and discuss how this can lead to a mispricing of the asymmetric relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500. To test this, we perform studies in which we find statistical inefficiencies, thereby making it possible to implement a method of hedging index option premium in a way that has displayed no monthly drawdowns in bullish periods, while still providing large returns in major sell-offs. The three versions of the strategy discussed have negative betas to the S&P 500, while exhibiting similar risk-adjusted excess returns over both bull and bear markets. Further, the performance generated over the entire period, for all three strategies, is highly statistically significant. The results challenge the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and provide evidence that the methods of hedging could be a valuable addition to an equity rich portfolio for the purpose of counteracting systematic risk.

  2. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  3. Assessing the impact of a combined analysis of four common low-risk genetic variants on autism risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carayol Jerome

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Autism is a complex disorder characterized by deficits involving communication, social interaction, and repetitive and restrictive patterns of behavior. Twin studies have shown that autism is strongly heritable, suggesting a strong genetic component. In other disease states with a complex etiology, such as type 2 diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular disease, combined analysis of multiple genetic variants in a genetic score has helped to identify individuals at high risk of disease. Genetic scores are designed to test for association of genetic markers with disease. Method The accumulation of multiple risk alleles markedly increases the risk of being affected, and compared with studying polymorphisms individually, it improves the identification of subgroups of individuals at greater risk. In the present study, we show that this approach can be applied to autism by specifically looking at a high-risk population of children who have siblings with autism. A two-sample study design and the generation of a genetic score using multiple independent genes were used to assess the risk of autism in a high-risk population. Results In both samples, odds ratios (ORs increased significantly as a function of the number of risk alleles, with a genetic score of 8 being associated with an OR of 5.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.45 to 12.49. The sensitivities and specificities for each genetic score were similar in both analyses, and the resultant area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were identical (0.59. Conclusions These results suggest that the accumulation of multiple risk alleles in a genetic score is a useful strategy for assessing the risk of autism in siblings of affected individuals, and may be better than studying single polymorphisms for identifying subgroups of individuals with significantly greater risk.

  4. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  5. Work-related stress risk assessment in Italy: a methodological proposal adapted to regulatory guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

    2013-06-01

    Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

  6. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  7. Occupational sitting: practitioner perceptions of health risks, intervention strategies and influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilson, Nicholas; Straker, Leon; Parry, Sharon

    2012-12-01

    Workplace practitioners are well placed to provide practical insights on sedentary behaviour issues in the workplace. This study consulted occupational health and safety (OHS) practitioners, examining their perceptions of sedentary health risks and views on strategies and influences to reduce and break prolonged occupational sitting. Three focus groups were conducted with convenience samples of OHS practitioners (n=34; 6 men; 46.4 ± 9.6 years) attending an Australian national conference in November 2010. Open-ended questions concerning health risks, sitting reduction strategies and influences were posed by lead researchers and practitioners invited to express opinions, viewpoints and experiences. Audio-recordings and summary notes of focus group discussions were reviewed by researchers to identify key response themes. OHS practitioners were well informed about the chronic disease and musculoskeletal risks associated with prolonged occupational sitting, but noted the importance of not replacing one workplace health issue (too much sitting) with another (too much standing). Ideas for strategies were diverse and explored the dichotomy between providing choices for employees to stand and move more (e.g. sit-stand desks), as opposed to obligating change through adapting job and office design (e.g. centralising printers and scanners). Productivity concerns were cited as a major influence for change. OHS practitioners also highlighted the value of using cross-disciplinary expertise to bridge the gap between research and practice. This study identified that OHS practitioners in Australia have a good understanding of the risks of prolonged occupational sitting and potential strategies to manage these risks.

  8. "The Dose Makes the Poison": Informing Consumers About the Scientific Risk Assessment of Food Additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bearth, Angela; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Siegrist, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Intensive risk assessment is required before the approval of food additives. During this process, based on the toxicological principle of "the dose makes the poison,ˮ maximum usage doses are assessed. However, most consumers are not aware of these efforts to ensure the safety of food additives and are therefore sceptical, even though food additives bring certain benefits to consumers. This study investigated the effect of a short video, which explains the scientific risk assessment and regulation of food additives, on consumers' perceptions and acceptance of food additives. The primary goal of this study was to inform consumers and enable them to construct their own risk-benefit assessment and make informed decisions about food additives. The secondary goal was to investigate whether people have different perceptions of food additives of artificial (i.e., aspartame) or natural origin (i.e., steviolglycoside). To attain these research goals, an online experiment was conducted on 185 Swiss consumers. Participants were randomly assigned to either the experimental group, which was shown a video about the scientific risk assessment of food additives, or the control group, which was shown a video about a topic irrelevant to the study. After watching the video, the respondents knew significantly more, expressed more positive thoughts and feelings, had less risk perception, and more acceptance than prior to watching the video. Thus, it appears that informing consumers about complex food safety topics, such as the scientific risk assessment of food additives, is possible, and using a carefully developed information video is a successful strategy for informing consumers. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Evaluatiopn of Strategies for Modifying Urban Storm Water Drainage System Using Risk-based Criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mahsa soleimani

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Appropriate modification of existing urban storm water drainage networks may help reduce network inundation and flood-borne pollution risks. It will, therefore, be necessary to analyze the risks associated with water quantity and quality during urban flooding before any reconstruction strategies can be identified that are adaptable to, or compatible with, urban sustainable development strategies. In this paper, three network modification strategies are evaluated against the three criteria of network inundation at different sections, flood pollution risks, and modification plan costs. The modification strategies evaluated include the conventional approach of increasing conduit dimensions as well as the two novels swale and bio-retention systems. The strategies are then prioritised using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA method. The application of the proposed methodology is illustrated in the case study of urban storm water drainage systems in the Golestan City in Tehran Province for which a hydrological and hydraulic simulation model has been developed using the SWMM software. The results show that the swale system is the best strategy with an approximate cost of 20 billion Rials (almost US$ 6 million. Compared to the existing system in operation, the proposed system will be capable of reducing 59% of the quantitative risk of flooding (inundation and 26% of the water quality risk (pollution loads.

  10. Risk Perception and Management Strategies in Dairy Farming: A Case of Adana Province of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyit Hayran

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine and analyse farmers’ risk perceptions and risk management strategies in dairy farming. Data were obtained in 2014 (December and 2015 (February and March from face-to-face interviews with 96 dairy farmers in Yüregir and Saricam district of Adana province of Turkey. Factor analysis was used in data reduction to identify a small number of factors related to risk sources and risk strategies in this study. Then, multiple regression model was used to evaluate the influence of socio-economic characteristics and communication behaviour on the farmers’ risk perceptions and risk management strategies using factor loadings. The results of this study show that the most important risk source that the farmers' perceive is variability in feed prices and risk management strategy that the farmers' perceive is take precautions to prevent disease. The results of factor analysis show that the risk scale consists of 8 factors explaining 70.24% of total variance. The internal consistency coefficient Cronbach Alfa of the scale is 0.808 and KMO is 0.732. The risk management scale consists of 6 factors explaining 67.78% of total variance. The internal consistency coefficient Cronbach Alfa of the scale is 0.775 and KMO is 0.746. According to the results, perceptions were farmer-specific, a number of socio-economic variables and communication behaviour are found to be related to risk and risk management. To improve risk management strategies is useful for farmers as well and might help them to avoid many risks and reduce losses.

  11. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  12. Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

  13. Strategies for risk management using the paper markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Annesley, M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper briefly describes the significant milestones in the evolution of the oil markets, with emphasis on the reasons for the changing structures of the markets, and the roles of different types of participant. After explaining the current structure of the oil markets - futures - forwards - options and derivatives the paper then explains some basic strategies. Finally some of the favourite strategies of refiners, producers and end users will be explored. Some cautionary comments on deal tracking, control systems and other associated risk management requirements will round off this paper. (author)

  14. Inadequate stakeholder management and its effect on a coherent sinkhole risk management strategy: The case of the Merafong Local Municipality, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tshepo Moshodi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The Merafong Local Municipality (MLM has historically suffered financial and human losses because of the presence of dolomite and the consequent formation of sinkholes. There is a great need for the MLM to address the risk posed by sinkholes to ensure the continued safety of communities. However, as the risk is so pervasive, the MLM needs to coordinate their risk reduction strategies with a wide array of stakeholders in the municipality. Efficient stakeholder management is thus crucial if the sinkhole risk is to be addressed appropriately. This article reviews the current status of stakeholder management in the MLM as it pertains to the formulation of a holistic sinkhole risk reduction strategy. Findings indicate that there are serious deficiencies in the MLM’s stakeholder management relating to key risk management processes such as community involvement in risk management structures, disaster risk assessment, training and awareness, and early warning and response. Improved stakeholder management could be characterised by the following factors: improved two-way communication between the municipality and community stakeholders, fostering a relationship based upon trust and equality amongst stakeholders, participation by a wide array of stakeholder groups affected by the sinkhole risk and a mutual commitment by all stakeholders to address the risk. These factors could contribute to enhancing current and future sinkhole risk reduction strategies.

  15. Risk assessment and model for community-based construction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It, therefore, becomes necessary to systematically manage uncertainty in community-based construction in order to increase the likelihood of meeting project objectives using necessary risk management strategies. Risk management, which is an iterative process due to the dynamic nature of many risks, follows three main ...

  16. Health benefits of 'grow your own' food in urban areas: implications for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    2009-12-21

    Abstract Compelling evidence of major health benefits of fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and outdoor interaction with \\'greenspace\\' have emerged in the past decade - all of which combine to give major potential health benefits from \\'grow-your-own\\' (GYO) in urban areas. However, neither current risk assessment models nor risk management strategies for GYO in allotments and gardens give any consideration to these health benefits, despite their potential often to more than fully compensate the risks. Although urban environments are more contaminated by heavy metals, arsenic, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and dioxins than most rural agricultural areas, evidence is lacking for adverse health outcomes of GYO in UK urban areas. Rarely do pollutants in GYO food exceed statutory limits set for commercial food, and few people obtain the majority of their food from GYO. In the UK, soil contamination thresholds triggering closure or remediation of allotment and garden sites are based on precautionary principles, generating \\'scares\\' that may negatively impact public health disproportionately to the actual health risks of exposure to toxins through own-grown food. By contrast, the health benefits of GYO are a direct counterpoint to the escalating public health crisis of \\'obesity and sloth\\' caused by eating an excess of saturated fats, inadequate consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables combined with a lack of exercise. These are now amongst the most important preventable causes of illness and death. The health and wider societal benefits of \\'grow-your-own\\' thus reveal a major limitation in current risk assessment methodologies which, in only considering risks, are unable to predict whether GYO on particular sites will, overall, have positive, negative, or no net effects on human health. This highlights a more general need for a new generation of risk assessment tools that also predict overall consequences for health to more effectively guide

  17. Health benefits of 'grow your own' food in urban areas: implications for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leake, Jonathan R; Adam-Bradford, Andrew; Rigby, Janette E

    2009-12-21

    Compelling evidence of major health benefits of fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and outdoor interaction with 'greenspace' have emerged in the past decade - all of which combine to give major potential health benefits from 'grow-your-own' (GYO) in urban areas. However, neither current risk assessment models nor risk management strategies for GYO in allotments and gardens give any consideration to these health benefits, despite their potential often to more than fully compensate the risks. Although urban environments are more contaminated by heavy metals, arsenic, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and dioxins than most rural agricultural areas, evidence is lacking for adverse health outcomes of GYO in UK urban areas. Rarely do pollutants in GYO food exceed statutory limits set for commercial food, and few people obtain the majority of their food from GYO. In the UK, soil contamination thresholds triggering closure or remediation of allotment and garden sites are based on precautionary principles, generating 'scares' that may negatively impact public health disproportionately to the actual health risks of exposure to toxins through own-grown food. By contrast, the health benefits of GYO are a direct counterpoint to the escalating public health crisis of 'obesity and sloth' caused by eating an excess of saturated fats, inadequate consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables combined with a lack of exercise. These are now amongst the most important preventable causes of illness and death. The health and wider societal benefits of 'grow-your-own' thus reveal a major limitation in current risk assessment methodologies which, in only considering risks, are unable to predict whether GYO on particular sites will, overall, have positive, negative, or no net effects on human health. This highlights a more general need for a new generation of risk assessment tools that also predict overall consequences for health to more effectively guide risk management in our

  18. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  19. Benefit-Risk Assessment, Communication, and Evaluation (BRACE) throughout the life cycle of therapeutic products : overall perspective and role of the pharmacoepidemiologist

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Radawski, Christine; Morrato, Elaine; Hornbuckle, Kenneth; Bahri, Priya; Smith, Meredith; Juhaeri, Juhaeri; Mol, Peter; Levitan, Bennett; Huang, Han-Yao; Coplan, Paul; Li, Hu

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Optimizing a therapeutic product's benefit-risk profile is an on-going process throughout the product's life cycle. Different, yet related, benefit-risk assessment strategies and frameworks are being developed by various regulatory agencies, industry groups, and stakeholders. This paper

  20. A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different

  1. Sudbury soils study : human health and ecological risk assessment : a case study in science, process and perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wren, C.

    2009-01-01

    This presentation discussed the public relations and public opinion strategies used as part of a soils study conducted to assess the risk of mining activities in the Sudbury region to human health and the environment. The human health risk assessment (HHRA) study was conducted and administered by a multi-stakeholder technical committee attended by the public. The study was comprised of extensive soil collection and analysis; a review of historical soils data; and extensive human health and ecological risk assessments. Extensive sampling was also conducted on air, dust, and locally-produced foods. A public advisory committee was formed to disseminate scientific information to the community. Scientific data obtained in the study were reviewed by experts in various fields. Results of the study were also peer-reviewed by an independent expert review panel comprised of leading specialists in human health, toxicology, speciation, and risk assessment. The study showed that the identified risks were over-estimated in the interest of protecting human health. It was concluded that the HHRA's findings were generally accepted by the public. tabs., figs

  2. Risk assessment and subsequent nursing interventions in a forensic mental health inpatient setting: Associations and impact on aggressive behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maguire, Tessa; Daffern, Michael; Bowe, Steven J; McKenna, Brian

    2018-03-01

    To examine associations between risk of aggression and nursing interventions designed to prevent aggression. There is scarce empirical research exploring the nature and effectiveness of interventions designed to prevent inpatient aggression. Some strategies may be effective when patients are escalating, whereas others may be effective when aggression is imminent. Research examining level of risk for aggression and selection and effectiveness of interventions and impact on aggression is necessary. Archival case file. Data from clinical files of 30 male and 30 female patients across three forensic acute units for the first 60 days of hospitalisation were collected. Risk for imminent aggression as measured by the Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression, documented nursing interventions following each assessment, and acts of aggression within the 24-hours following assessment were collected. Generalised estimating equations were used to investigate whether intervention strategies were associated with reduction in aggression. When a Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression assessment was completed, nurses intervened more frequently compared to days when no Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression assessment was completed. Higher Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression assessments were associated with a greater number of interventions. The percentage of interventions selected for males differed from females; males received more pro re nata medication and observation, and females received more limit setting, one-to-one nursing and reassurance. Pro re nata medication was the most commonly documented intervention (35.9%) in this study. Pro re nata medication, limit setting and reassurance were associated with an increased likelihood of aggression in some risk bands. Structured risk assessment prompts intervention, and higher risk ratings result in more interventions. Patient gender influences the type of interventions. Some interventions are associated with

  3. Assessment and Treatment of Abuse Risk in Opioid Prescribing for Chronic Pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert N. Jamison

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Opioid analgesics provide effective treatment for noncancer pain, but many physicians have concerns about adverse effects, tolerance, and addiction. Misuse of opioids is prominent in patients with chronic back pain and early recognition of misuse risk could help physicians offer adequate patient care while implementing appropriate levels of monitoring to reduce aberrant drug-related behaviors. In this review, we discuss opioid abuse and misuse issues that often arise in the treatment of patients with chronic back pain and present an overview of assessment and treatment strategies that can be effective in improving compliance with the use of prescription opioids for pain. Many persons with chronic back pain have significant medical, psychiatric and substance use comorbidities that affect treatment decisions and a comprehensive evaluation that includes a detailed history, physical, and mental health evaluation is essential. Although there is no “gold standard” for opioid misuse risk assessment, several validated measures have been shown to be useful. Controlled substance agreements, regular urine drug screens, and interventions such as motivational counseling have been shown to help improve patient compliance with opioids and to minimize aberrant drug-related behavior. Finally, we discuss the future of abuse-deterrent opioids and other potential strategies for back pain management.

  4. Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

  5. Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

    2016-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

  6. The Success Of Stock Selection Strategies In Emerging Markets: Is It Risk Or Behavioral Bias?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. van der Hart; G.J. de Zwart (Gerben); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractWe examine competing explanations, based on risk and behavioral models, for the profitability of stock selection strategies in emerging markets. We document that both emerging market risk and global risk factors cannot account for the significant excess returns of selection strategies

  7. Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessing climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for smallholder agricultural systems in Uganda. ... from encroaching on swamps, which is one of the reported adaptation strategies to climate related stresses. Improving productivity of important crops (bananas for southwest, and sweet potatoes and bananas

  8. Development and management of a radon assessment strategy suitable for underground railway tunnelling projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purnell, C. J.; Frommer, G.; Chan, K.; Auch, A. A.

    2004-01-01

    The construction of underground tunnels through radon-bearing rock poses a radiation health risk to tunnelling workers from exposure to radon gas and its radioactive decay products. This paper presents the development and practical application of a radon assessment strategy suitable for the measurement of radon in tunnelling work environments in Hong Kong. The assessment strategy was successfully evaluated on a number of underground railway tunnelling projects over a 3 y period. Radon measurements were undertaken using a combination of portable radon measurement equipment and track etch detectors (TEDs) deployed throughout the tunnels. The radon gas monitoring results were used to confirm that ventilation rates were adequate or identified, at an early stage, when further action to reduce radon levels was required. Exposure dose estimates based on the TED results showed that the exposure of tunnel workers to radon did not exceed 3 mSv per annum for the duration of each project. (authors)

  9. Multi-hazard risk assessment of the Republic of Mauritius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mysiak, Jaroslav; Galli, Alberto; Amadio, Mattia; Teatini, Chiara

    2013-04-01

    The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a small island developing state (SIDS), part of the Mascarene Islands in West Indian Ocean, comprised by Mauritius, Rodrigues, Agalega and St. Brandon islands and several islets. ROM is exposed to many natural hazards notably cyclones, tsunamis, torrential precipitation, landslides, and droughts; and highly vulnerable sea level rise (SLR) driven by human induced climate change. The multihazard risk assessment presented in this paper is aimed at identifying the areas prone to flood, inundation and landslide hazard, and inform the development of strategy for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Climate risk analysis - a central component of the analysis - is one of the first comprehensive climate modelling studies conducted for the country. Climate change may lift the temperature by 1-2 degree Celsius by 2060-2070, and increase sizably the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. According to the IPCC Forth Assessment Report (AR4), the expected Sea Level Rise (SLR) ranges between 16 and 49 cm. Individually or in combination, the inland flood, coastal inundation and landslide hazards affect large proportion of the country. Sea level rise and the changes in precipitation regimes will amplified existing vulnerabilities and create new ones. The paper outlines an Action plan for Disaster Risk Reduction that takes into account the likely effects of climate change. The Action Plan calls on the government to establish a National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction as recommended by the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015. It consists of nine recommendations which, if put in practice, will significantly reduce the annual damage to natural hazard and produce additional (ancillary) benefits in economic, social and environmental terms.

  10. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  11. Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.

    1976-04-01

    The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

  12. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  13. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  14. Issues and challenges in the assessment, diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular risk factors: Assessing the needs of cardiologists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dupuis Martin

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This needs assessment, initiated by the Academy for Healthcare Education Inc. in cooperation with AXDEV Group Inc., explored the knowledge, attitudes, behavior, and skills of community-based and academic-affiliated U.S. cardiologists in the area of CV risk assessment, treatment, and management from July 2006 to December 2006. Methods The needs assessment used a multistage, mixed-method approach to collect, analyze, and verify data from two independent sources. The exploratory phase collected data from a representative sampling of U.S. cardiologists by means of qualitative panel meetings, one-on-one interviews, and quantitative questionnaires. In the validation phase, 150 cardiologists from across the United States completed a quantitative online questionnaire. Data were analyzed with standardized statistical methods. Results The needs assessment found that cardiologists have areas of weakness pertaining to their interpersonal skills, which may influence patient-physician communication and patient adherence. Cardiologists appeared to have little familiarity with or lend little credence to the concept of relative CV risk. In daily clinical practice, they faced challenges with regard to optimal patient outcome in areas of patient referral from primary-care providers, CV risk assessment and treatment, and patient monitoring. Community-based and academic-affiliated cardiologists appeared to be only moderately interested in educational interventions that pertain to CV risk-reduction strategies. Conclusion Educational interventions that target cardiologists' interpersonal skills to enhance their efficacy may benefit community-based and academic-affiliated specialists. Other desirable educational initiatives should address gaps in the patient referral process, improve patient knowledge and understanding of their disease, and provide supportive educational tools and materials to enhance patient-physician communication.

  15. New Tools and Methods for Assessing Risk-Management Strategies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vendlinski, Terry P; Munro, Allen; Chung, Gregory K; De la Cruz, Girlie C; Pizzini, Quentin A; Bewley, William L; Stuart, Gale; Baker, Eva L

    2004-01-01

    .... The Decision Analysis Tool (DAT) allowed subjects to use Expected Value and Multi-attribute Utility Theories to evaluate the risks and benefits of various acquisition alternatives, and allowed us to monitor the process subjects used...

  16. Coronary risk assessment by point-based vs. equation-based Framingham models: significant implications for clinical care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, William J; Polansky, Jesse M; Boscardin, W John; Fung, Kathy Z; Steinman, Michael A

    2010-11-01

    US cholesterol guidelines use original and simplified versions of the Framingham model to estimate future coronary risk and thereby classify patients into risk groups with different treatment strategies. We sought to compare risk estimates and risk group classification generated by the original, complex Framingham model and the simplified, point-based version. We assessed 2,543 subjects age 20-79 from the 2001-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) for whom Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III) guidelines recommend formal risk stratification. For each subject, we calculated the 10-year risk of major coronary events using the original and point-based Framingham models, and then compared differences in these risk estimates and whether these differences would place subjects into different ATP-III risk groups (20% risk). Using standard procedures, all analyses were adjusted for survey weights, clustering, and stratification to make our results nationally representative. Among 39 million eligible adults, the original Framingham model categorized 71% of subjects as having "moderate" risk (20%) risk. Estimates of coronary risk by the original and point-based models often differed substantially. The point-based system classified 15% of adults (5.7 million) into different risk groups than the original model, with 10% (3.9 million) misclassified into higher risk groups and 5% (1.8 million) into lower risk groups, for a net impact of classifying 2.1 million adults into higher risk groups. These risk group misclassifications would impact guideline-recommended drug treatment strategies for 25-46% of affected subjects. Patterns of misclassifications varied significantly by gender, age, and underlying CHD risk. Compared to the original Framingham model, the point-based version misclassifies millions of Americans into risk groups for which guidelines recommend different treatment strategies.

  17. Farmers' motivations, risk perceptions and risk management strategies in a developing economy: Bangladesh experience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahsan, D. A.

    2011-01-01

    and farm management training are considered among the best methods to manage the risks in the shrimp-farming business. We also observe some disparities in farmers' perceptions. For instance, farmers mentioned that removal of influence of middlemen from supply chain is essential for the betterment......Aquaculture farmers' risk perceptions and risk management strategies have still received little attention in agricultural research. Therefore, an exploratory study has been undertaken to provide empirical insight into Bangladeshi coastal shrimp farmers' risk perceptions and risk management...... and availability of quality shrimp seeds, exploitation by intermediaries and uncertainty about the future demand for shrimp in foreign markets are perceived as the most important sources of risk. On the other hand, prevention of disease, timely supply of shrimp seeds, elimination of middlemen from the supply chain...

  18. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  19. Fertility drugs, reproductive strategies and ovarian cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomao, Federica; Lo Russo, Giuseppe; Spinelli, Gian Paolo; Stati, Valeria; Prete, Alessandra Anna; Prinzi, Natalie; Sinjari, Marsela; Vici, Patrizia; Papa, Anselmo; Chiotti, Maria Stefania; Benedetti Panici, Pierluigi; Tomao, Silverio

    2014-01-01

    Several adverse effects have been related to infertility treatments, such as cancer development. In particular, the relationship between infertility, reproductive strategies, and risk of gynecological cancers has aroused much interest in recent years. The evaluation of cancer risk among women treated for infertility is very complex, mainly because of many factors that can contribute to occurrence of cancer in these patients (including parity status). This article addresses the possible association between the use of fertility treatments and the risk of ovarian cancer, through a scrupulous search of the literature published thus far in this field. Our principal objective was to give more conclusive answers on the question whether the use of fertility drug significantly increases ovarian cancer risk. Our analysis focused on the different types of drugs and different treatment schedules used. This study provides additional insights regarding the long-term relationships between fertility drugs and risk of ovarian cancer.

  20. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.