Establishing the distribution of satellite lesions in intermediate- and high-risk prostate cancer: implications for focused radiotherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hegde, J V; Margolis, D J; Wang, P-C; Reiter, R E; Huang, J; Steinberg, M L; Kamrava, M

2017-06-01

In focused radiotherapy for prostate cancer (PC), a full dose of radiation is delivered to the index lesion while reduced dose is delivered to the remaining prostate to reduce morbidity. As PC is commonly multifocal, we investigated whether baseline clinical characteristics or multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) may be useful to predict the actual pathologic distribution of PC in men with intermediate- or high-risk PC, which may better inform how to deliver focused radiotherapy. A retrospective single-institutional study was performed on 71 consecutive men with clinically localized, intermediate- or high-risk PC who underwent mpMRI followed by radical prostatectomy (RP) from January 2012 to December 2012. Logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate preoperative predictors for satellite lesions. Performance characteristics of mpMRI to detect satellite lesions and the extent of prostate disease (one hemi-gland vs both) were also evaluated. In all, 50.7% had satellite lesions on mpMRI. On RP specimen analysis, 66.2% had satellite lesions and 55.3% of these satellite lesions had pathologic Gleason score (pGS)⩾3+4. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy for mpMRI detecting a satellite lesion being present in the RP specimen were 59.6%, 66.7%, 77.8%, 45.7% and 62.0%, respectively. The presence of MRI satellite lesions was the only preoperative predictor significantly associated with finding satellite lesions on final pathology (hazard ratio (HR), 2.95, P=0.040). There was agreement in 76.1% of the entire cohort for unilateral vs bilateral disease when incorporating both biopsy and mpMRI information and comparing with the RP specimen. In intermediate risk or greater PC, only the presence of mpMRI satellite lesions could predict for pathologic satellite lesions. While combining biopsy and mpMRI information may improve preoperative disease localization, the relatively high incidence of

Assessment of satellite-based precipitation estimates over Paraguay

Science.gov (United States)

Oreggioni Weiberlen, Fiorella; Báez Benítez, Julián

2018-04-01

Satellite-based precipitation estimates represent a potential alternative source of input data in a plethora of meteorological and hydrological applications, especially in regions characterized by a low density of rain gauge stations. Paraguay provides a good example of a case where the use of satellite-based precipitation could be advantageous. This study aims to evaluate the version 7 of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA V7; 3B42 V7) and the version 1.0 of the purely satellite-based product of the Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH RAW) through their comparison with daily in situ precipitation measurements from 1998 to 2012 over Paraguay. The statistical assessment is conducted with several commonly used indexes. Specifically, to evaluate the accuracy of daily precipitation amounts, mean error (ME), root mean square error (RMSE), BIAS, and coefficient of determination (R 2) are used, and to analyze the capability to correctly detect different precipitation intensities, false alarm ratio (FAR), frequency bias index (FBI), and probability of detection (POD) are applied to various rainfall rates (0, 0.1, 0.5, 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 40, 60, and 80 mm/day). Results indicate that TMPA V7 has a better performance than CMORPH RAW over Paraguay. TMPA V7 has higher accuracy in the estimation of daily rainfall volumes and greater precision in the detection of wet days (> 0 mm/day). However, both satellite products show a lower ability to appropriately detect high intensity precipitation events.

Satellite monitoring of cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom ...

Science.gov (United States)

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) cause extensive problems in lakes worldwide, including human and ecological health risks, anoxia and fish kills, and taste and odor problems. CyanoHABs are a particular concern because of their dense biomass and the risk of exposure to toxins in both recreational waters and drinking source waters. Successful cyanoHAB assessment by satellites may provide a first-line of defense indicator for human and ecological health protection. In this study, assessment methods were developed to determine the utility of satellite technology for detecting cyanoHAB occurrence frequency at locations of potential management interest. The European Space Agency's MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) was evaluated to prepare for the equivalent Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Colour Imager (OLCI) launched in 2016. Based on the 2012 National Lakes Assessment site evaluation guidelines and National Hydrography Dataset, there were 275,897 lakes and reservoirs greater than 1 hectare in the 48 U.S. states. Results from this evaluation show that 5.6 % of waterbodies were resolvable by satellites with 300 m single pixel resolution and 0.7 % of waterbodies were resolvable when a 3x3 pixel array was applied based on minimum Euclidian distance from shore. Satellite data was also spatially joined to US public water surface intake (PWSI) locations, where single pixel resolution resolved 57% of PWSI and a 3x3 pixel array resolved 33% of

Preliminary environmental assessment for the Satellite Power System (SPS). Revision 1. Volume 2. Detailed assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1980-01-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) is considering several options for generating electrical power to meet future energy needs. The satellite power system (SPS), one of these options, would collect solar energy through a system of satellites in space and transfer this energy to earth. A reference system has been described that would convert the energy to microwaves and transmit the microwave energy via directive antennas to large receiving/rectifying antennas (rectennas) located on the earth. At the rectennas, the microwave energy would be converted into electricity. The potential environmental impacts of constructing and operating the satellite power system are being assessed as a part of the Department of Energy's SPS Concept Development and Evaluation Program. This report is Revision I of the Preliminary Environmental Assessment for the Satellite Power System published in October 1978. It refines and extends the 1978 assessment and provides a basis for a 1980 revision that will guide and support DOE recommendations regarding future SPS development. This is Volume 2 of two volumes. It contains the technical detail suitable for peer review and integrates information appearing in documents referenced herein. The key environmental issues associated with the SPS concern human health and safety, ecosystems, climate, and electromagnetic systems interactions. In order to address these issues in an organized manner, five tasks are reported: (I) microwave-radiation health and ecological effects; (II) nonmicrowave health and ecological effectss; (III) atmospheric effects; (IV) effects on communication systems due to ionospheric disturbance; and (V) electromagnetic compatibility. (WHK)

Assessment of global precipitation measurement satellite products over Saudi Arabia

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, Mohammed T.; Al-Zahrani, Muhammad A.; Sharif, Hatim O.

2018-04-01

Most hydrological analysis and modeling studies require reliable and accurate precipitation data for successful simulations. However, precipitation measurements should be more representative of the true precipitation distribution. Many approaches and techniques are used to collect precipitation data. Recently, hydrometeorological and climatological applications of satellite precipitation products have experienced a significant improvement with the emergence of the latest satellite products, namely, the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (IMERG) products, which can be utilized to estimate and analyze precipitation data. This study focuses on the validation of the IMERG early, late and final run rainfall products using ground-based rain gauge observations throughout Saudi Arabia for the period from October 2015 to April 2016. The accuracy of each IMERG product is assessed using six statistical performance measures to conduct three main evaluations, namely, regional, event-based and station-based evaluations. The results indicate that the early run product performed well in the middle and eastern parts as well as some of the western parts of the country; meanwhile, the satellite estimates for the other parts fluctuated between an overestimation and an underestimation. The late run product showed an improved accuracy over the southern and western parts; however, over the northern and middle parts, it showed relatively high errors. The final run product revealed significantly improved precipitation estimations and successfully obtained higher accuracies over most parts of the country. This study provides an early assessment of the performance of the GPM satellite products over the Middle East. The study findings can be used as a beneficial reference for the future development of the IMERG algorithms.

Nursing Child Assessment Satellite Training Parent-Child Interaction Scales: Comparing American and Canadian Normative and High-Risk Samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Letourneau, Nicole L; Tryphonopoulos, Panagiota D; Novick, Jason; Hart, J Martha; Giesbrecht, Gerald; Oxford, Monica L

Many nurses rely on the American Nursing Child Assessment Satellite Training (NCAST) Parent-Child Interaction (PCI) Teaching and Feeding Scales to identify and target interventions for families affected by severe/chronic stressors (e.g. postpartum depression (PPD), intimate partner violence (IPV), low-income). However, the NCAST Database that provides normative data for comparisons may not apply to Canadian families. The purpose of this study was to compare NCAST PCI scores in Canadian and American samples and to assess the reliability of the NCAST PCI Scales in Canadian samples. This secondary analysis employed independent samples t-tests (p parent-child relationships and ultimately child development. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of global cloud datasets from satellites: Project and database initiated by the GEWEX radiation panel

OpenAIRE

Stubenrauch , C.J.; Rossow , W.B.; Kinne , S.; Ackerman , S.; Cesana , G.; Chepfer , H.; Di Girolamo , L.; Getzewich , B.; Guignard , A.; Heidinger , A.; Maddux , B.C.; Menzel , W.P.; Minnis , P.; Pearl , C.; Platnick , S.

2013-01-01

International audience; The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Radiation Panel initiated the GEWEX Cloud Assessment in 2005 to compare available, global, long-term cloud data products with the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). The GEWEX Cloud Assessment database included cloud properties retrieved from different satellite sensor measurements, taken at various local times and over various time periods. The relevant passive satellite sensors measured radia...

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) perspectives about the GEO Supersite initiative

Science.gov (United States)

Lengert, Wolfgang; Zoffoli, Simona; Giguere, Christine; Hoffmann, Joern; Lindsay, Francis; Seguin, Guy

2014-05-01

This presentation is outlining the effort of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) using its global collaboration structure to support implementing the GEO priority action DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster Reduction addressing the component: C2 Geohazards Monitoring, Alert, and Risk Assessment. A CEOS Supersites Coordination Team (SCT) has been established in order to make best use of the CEOS global satellite resources. For this, the CEOS SCT has taken a holistic view on the science data needs and availability of resources, considering the constraints and exploitation potentials of synergies. It is interfacing with the Supersites Science Advisory Group and the Principle Investigators to analyze how the satellite data associated with seismic and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data can support national authorities and policy makers in risk assessment and the development of mitigation strategies. CEOS SCT aims to support the establishment of a fully integrated approach to geohazards monitoring, based on collaboration among existing networks and international initiatives, using new instrumentation such as in-situ sensors, and aggregating space (radar, optical imagery) and ground-based (subsurface) observations. The three Supersites projects which are funded under the EC FP7 action, namely (i) FUTUREVOLC: A European volcanological supersite in Iceland: a monitoring system and network for the future Geohazards Monitoring, Alert, and Risk Assessment, (ii) MARsite: New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite, (iii) MED-SUV: MEDiterranean Volcanoes and related seismic risks, have been examined as a vehicle to fulfill these ambitious objectives. FUTUREVOLC has already been granted CEOS support. This presentation will outline CEOS agreed process and criteria applied by the Supersites Coordination Team (SCT), for selecting these Supersites in the context of the GSNL initiative, as

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Collision risk in white-tailed eagles. Modelling kernel-based collision risk using satellite telemetry data in Smoela wind-power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

May, Roel; Nygaard, Torgeir; Dahl, Espen Lie; Reitan, Ole; Bevanger, Kjetil

2011-05-15

Large soaring birds of prey, such as the white-tailed eagle, are recognized to be perhaps the most vulnerable bird group regarding risk of collisions with turbines in wind-power plants. Their mortalities have called for methods capable of modelling collision risks in connection with the planning of new wind-power developments. The so-called 'Band model' estimates collision risk based on the number of birds flying through the rotor swept zone and the probability of being hit by the passing rotor blades. In the calculations for the expected collision mortality a correction factor for avoidance behaviour is included. The overarching objective of this study was to use satellite telemetry data and recorded mortality to back-calculate the correction factor for white-tailed eagles. The Smoela wind-power plant consists of 68 turbines, over an area of approximately 18 km2. Since autumn 2006 the number of collisions has been recorded on a weekly basis. The analyses were based on satellite telemetry data from 28 white-tailed eagles equipped with backpack transmitters since 2005. The correction factor (i.e. 'avoidance rate') including uncertainty levels used within the Band collision risk model for white-tailed eagles was 99% (94-100%) for spring and 100% for the other seasons. The year-round estimate, irrespective of season, was 98% (95-99%). Although the year-round estimate was similar, the correction factor for spring was higher than the correction factor of 95% derived earlier from vantage point data. The satellite telemetry data may provide an alternative way to provide insight into relative risk among seasons, and help identify periods or areas with increased risk either in a pre- or post construction situation. (Author)

Categorizing natural disaster damage assessment using satellite-based geospatial techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Myint, S.W.; Yuan, M.; Cerveny, R.S.; Giri, C.

2008-01-01

Remote sensing of a natural disaster's damage offers an exciting backup and/or alternative to traditional means of on-site damage assessment. Although necessary for complete assessment of damage areas, ground-based damage surveys conducted in the aftermath of natural hazard passage can sometimes be potentially complicated due to on-site difficulties (e.g., interaction with various authorities and emergency services) and hazards (e.g., downed power lines, gas lines, etc.), the need for rapid mobilization (particularly for remote locations), and the increasing cost of rapid physical transportation of manpower and equipment. Satellite image analysis, because of its global ubiquity, its ability for repeated independent analysis, and, as we demonstrate here, its ability to verify on-site damage assessment provides an interesting new perspective and investigative aide to researchers. Using one of the strongest tornado events in US history, the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado, as a case example, we digitized the tornado damage path and co-registered the damage path using pre- and post-Landsat Thematic Mapper image data to perform a damage assessment. We employed several geospatial approaches, specifically the Getis index, Geary's C, and two lacunarity approaches to categorize damage characteristics according to the original Fujita tornado damage scale (F-scale). Our results indicate strong relationships between spatial indices computed within a local window and tornado F-scale damage categories identified through the ground survey. Consequently, linear regression models, even incorporating just a single band, appear effective in identifying F-scale damage categories using satellite imagery. This study demonstrates that satellite-based geospatial techniques can effectively add spatial perspectives to natural disaster damages, and in particular for this case study, tornado damages.

Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, L.; Hejduk, M.; Frigm, R.; Duncan, M.

2014-09-01

On-orbit collisions pose a significant mission risk to satellites operating in the space environment. Recognizing the likelihood and consequence of on-orbit collisions, NASA has taken several proactive measures to mitigate the risk of both a catastrophic loss of mission and the increase in the space debris population. In fall 2004, NASA GSFC established an Agency-wide, institutionalized process and service for identifying and reacting to predicted close approaches. The team responsible for executing this mission is the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team. By fall 2005, this process had resulted in the execution of the first collision avoidance maneuver by a NASA unmanned satellite. In February 2008, NASA adopted a policy, documented in NASA Procedural Requirement 8715.6a Process for Limiting Orbital Debris that directed maneuverable satellites to have such an on-orbit collision mitigation process. In 2009, NASA decided to require support for all operational satellites. By January 2014, the CARA team has processed nearly 500,000 close approach messages from the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) and has assisted our mission customers with planning and executing over 75 collision avoidance maneuvers for unmanned satellites in LEO, GEO, and HEO orbital regimes. With the increase in number of operational missions supported; growth in the orbital debris environment due to events such as the intentional destruction of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in 2007 and collision between Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251; and improvements to the United States Space Surveillance Network (SSN) and its ability to track, catalog, and screen against small debris objects, the demands on the CARA process have consequently required the CARA Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to evolve to manage those demands. This evolution is centered on the ability to effectively and efficiently manage JSpOC, CARA, and Mission Operations resources, applying operational and analytical

ASSESSMENT OF SATELLITE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS IN THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. D. Ramos

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Precipitation is the most important weather parameter in the Philippines. Made up of more than 7100 islands, the Philippine archipelago is an agricultural country that depends on rain-fed crops. Located in the western rim of the North West Pacific Ocean, this tropical island country is very vulnerable to tropical cyclones that lead to severe flooding events. Recently, satellite-based precipitation estimates have improved significantly and can serve as alternatives to ground-based observations. These data can be used to fill data gaps not only for climatic studies, but can also be utilized for disaster risk reduction and management activities. This study characterized the statistical errors of daily precipitation from four satellite-based rainfall products from (1 the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, (2 the CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH of NOAA and (3 the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP and (4 Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN. Precipitation data were compared to 52 synoptic weather stations located all over the Philippines. Results show GSMAP to have over all lower bias and CMORPH with lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE. In addition, a dichotomous rainfall test reveals GSMAP and CMORPH have low Proportion Correct (PC for convective and stratiform rainclouds, respectively. TRMM consistently showed high PC for almost all raincloud types. Moreover, all four satellite precipitation showed high Correct Negatives (CN values for the north-western part of the country during the North-East monsoon and spring monsoonal transition periods.

Assessment of Satellite Precipitation Products in the Philippine Archipelago

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, M. D.; Tendencia, E.; Espana, K.; Sabido, J.; Bagtasa, G.

2016-06-01

Precipitation is the most important weather parameter in the Philippines. Made up of more than 7100 islands, the Philippine archipelago is an agricultural country that depends on rain-fed crops. Located in the western rim of the North West Pacific Ocean, this tropical island country is very vulnerable to tropical cyclones that lead to severe flooding events. Recently, satellite-based precipitation estimates have improved significantly and can serve as alternatives to ground-based observations. These data can be used to fill data gaps not only for climatic studies, but can also be utilized for disaster risk reduction and management activities. This study characterized the statistical errors of daily precipitation from four satellite-based rainfall products from (1) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), (2) the CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH) of NOAA and (3) the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP) and (4) Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN). Precipitation data were compared to 52 synoptic weather stations located all over the Philippines. Results show GSMAP to have over all lower bias and CMORPH with lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). In addition, a dichotomous rainfall test reveals GSMAP and CMORPH have low Proportion Correct (PC) for convective and stratiform rainclouds, respectively. TRMM consistently showed high PC for almost all raincloud types. Moreover, all four satellite precipitation showed high Correct Negatives (CN) values for the north-western part of the country during the North-East monsoon and spring monsoonal transition periods.

Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, Lauri K.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.

2016-01-01

Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Assessing Temporal Stability for Coarse Scale Satellite Moisture Validation in the Maqu Area, Tibet

Science.gov (United States)

Bhatti, Haris Akram; Rientjes, Tom; Verhoef, Wouter; Yaseen, Muhammad

2013-01-01

This study evaluates if the temporal stability concept is applicable to a time series of satellite soil moisture images so to extend the common procedure of satellite image validation. The area of study is the Maqu area, which is located in the northeastern part of the Tibetan plateau. The network serves validation purposes of coarse scale (25–50 km) satellite soil moisture products and comprises 20 stations with probes installed at depths of 5, 10, 20, 40, 80 cm. The study period is 2009. The temporal stability concept is applied to all five depths of the soil moisture measuring network and to a time series of satellite-based moisture products from the Advance Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E). The in-situ network is also assessed by Pearsons's correlation analysis. Assessments by the temporal stability concept proved to be useful and results suggest that probe measurements at 10 cm depth best match to the satellite observations. The Mean Relative Difference plot for satellite pixels shows that a RMSM pixel can be identified but in our case this pixel does not overlay any in-situ station. Also, the RMSM pixel does not overlay any of the Representative Mean Soil Moisture (RMSM) stations of the five probe depths. Pearson's correlation analysis on in-situ measurements suggests that moisture patterns over time are more persistent than over space. Since this study presents first results on the application of the temporal stability concept to a series of satellite images, we recommend further tests to become more conclusive on effectiveness to broaden the procedure of satellite validation. PMID:23959237

Assessing the Impact of Earth Radiation Pressure Acceleration on Low-Earth Orbit Satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Vielberg, Kristin; Forootan, Ehsan; Lück, Christina; Kusche, Jürgen; Börger, Klaus

2017-04-01

The orbits of satellites are influenced by several external forces. The main non-gravitational forces besides thermospheric drag, acting on the surface of satellites, are accelerations due to the Earth and Solar Radiation Pres- sure (SRP and ERP, respectively). The sun radiates visible and infrared light reaching the satellite directly, which causes the SRP. Earth also emits and reflects the sunlight back into space, where it acts on satellites. This is known as ERP acceleration. The influence of ERP increases with decreasing distance to the Earth, and for low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites ERP must be taken into account in orbit and gravity computations. Estimating acceler- ations requires knowledge about energy emitted from the Earth, which can be derived from satellite remote sensing data, and also by considering the shape and surface material of a satellite. In this sensitivity study, we assess ERP accelerations based on different input albedo and emission fields and their modelling for the satellite missions Challenging Mini-Satellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). As input fields, monthly 1°x1° products of Clouds and the Earth's Radiant En- ergy System (CERES), L3 are considered. Albedo and emission models are generated as latitude-dependent, as well as in terms of spherical harmonics. The impact of different albedo and emission models as well as the macro model and the altitude of satellites on ERP accelerations will be discussed.

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Assessment of the Ability of Contemporary Climate Models to Assess Adequately the Risk of Possible Regional Anomalies and Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Mokhov, I. I.

2018-04-01

The results describing the ability of contemporary global and regional climate models not only to assess the risk of general trends of changes but also to predict qualitatively new regional effects are presented. In particular, model simulations predicted spatially inhomogeneous changes in the wind and wave conditions in the Arctic basins, which have been confirmed in recent years. According to satellite and reanalysis data, a qualitative transition to the regime predicted by model simulations occurred about a decade ago.

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

Ionizing radiation risks to satellite power systems (SPS) workers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-11-01

The radiation risks to the health of workers who will construct and maintain solar power satellites in the space environment were examined. For ionizing radiation, the major concern will be late or delayed health effects, particularly the increased risk of radiation-induced cancer. The estimated lifetime risk for cancer is 0.8 to 5.0 excess deaths per 10,000 workers per rad of exposure. Thus, for example, in 10,000 workers who completed ten missions with an exposure of 40 rem per mission, 320 to 2000 additional deaths in excess of the 1640 deaths from normally occurring cancer, would be expected. These estimates would indicate a 20 to 120% increase in cancer deaths in the worker-population. The wide range in these estimates stems from the choice of the risk-projection model and the dose-response relationsip. The choice between a linear and a linear-quadratic dose-response model may alter the risk estimate by a factor of about two. The method of analysis (e.g., relative vs absolute risk model) can alter the risk estimate by an additional factor of three. Choosing different age and sex distributions can further change the estimate by another factor of up to three. The potential genetic consequences could be of significance, but at the present time, sufficient information on the age and sex distribution of the worker population is lacking for precise estimation of risk. The potential teratogenic consequences resulting from radiation are considered significant. Radiation exposure of a pregnant worker could result in developmental abnormalities

Ionizing radiation risks to satellite power systems (SPS) workers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lyman, J.T.; Ainsworth, E.J.; Alpen, E.L.; Bond, V.; Curtis, S.B.; Fry, R.J.M.; Jackson, K.L.; Nachtwey, S.; Sondhaus, C.; Tobias, C.A.; Fabrikant, J.I.

1980-11-01

The radiation risks to the health of workers who will construct and maintain solar power satellites in the space environment were examined. For ionizing radiation, the major concern will be late or delayed health effects, particularly the increased risk of radiation-induced cancer. The estimated lifetime risk for cancer is 0.8 to 5.0 excess deaths per 10,000 workers per rad of exposure. Thus, for example, in 10,000 workers who completed ten missions with an exposure of 40 rem per mission, 320 to 2000 additional deaths in excess of the 1640 deaths from normally occurring cancer, would be expected. These estimates would indicate a 20 to 120% increase in cancer deaths in the worker-population. The wide range in these estimates stems from the choice of the risk-projection model and the dose-response relationsip. The choice between a linear and a linear-quadratic dose-response model may alter the risk estimate by a factor of about two. The method of analysis (e.g., relative vs absolute risk model) can alter the risk estimate by an additional factor of three. Choosing different age and sex distributions can further change the estimate by another factor of up to three. The potential genetic consequences could be of significance, but at the present time, sufficient information on the age and sex distribution of the worker population is lacking for precise estimation of risk. The potential teratogenic consequences resulting from radiation are considered significant. Radiation exposure of a pregnant worker could result in developmental abnormalities.

Emerging markets for satellite data communications in the public service

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, J. G.

1978-01-01

The paper discusses some of the current and potential markets for satellite data communications as projected by the Public Service Satellite Consortium (PSSC). Organizations in the public service sector are divided into three categories, depending on their expected benefits and organizational changes due to increased satellite telecommunications use: A - modest institutional adjustments are necessary and significant productivity gains are likely; B - institutional requirements picture is promising, but more information is needed to assess benefits and risk; and C - major institutional adjustments are needed, risks are high but possible benefits are high. These criteria are applied to the U.S. health care system, continuing education, equipment maintenance, libraries, environmental monitoring, and other potential markets. The potential revenues are seen to be significant, but what is needed is a cooperative effort by common carriers and major public service institutions to aggregate the market.

Total Probability of Collision as a Metric for Finite Conjunction Assessment and Collision Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Frigm, Ryan C.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.; Plakalovic, Dragan

2015-01-01

On-orbit collision risk is becoming an increasing mission risk to all operational satellites in Earth orbit. Managing this risk can be disruptive to mission and operations, present challenges for decision-makers, and is time-consuming for all parties involved. With the planned capability improvements to detecting and tracking smaller orbital debris and capacity improvements to routinely predict on-orbit conjunctions, this mission risk will continue to grow in terms of likelihood and effort. It is very real possibility that the future space environment will not allow collision risk management and mission operations to be conducted in the same manner as it is today. This paper presents the concept of a finite conjunction assessment-one where each discrete conjunction is not treated separately but, rather, as a continuous event that must be managed concurrently. The paper also introduces the Total Probability of Collision as an analogous metric for finite conjunction assessment operations and provides several options for its usage in a Concept of Operations.

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

FCJ-201 Visual Evidence from Above: Assessing the Value of Earth Observation Satellites for Supporting Human Rights

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanya Notley

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Public access to data collected by remote sensing Earth Observation Satellites has, until recently, been very limited. Now, citizens and rights advocacy groups are increasingly utilising satellite-collected images to interrogate justice issues; to document, prevent and verify rights abuses; and to imagine and propose social change. Yet while other communication technologies have received substantial critical analysis regarding their value as tools of social justice, activism and resistance, satellites have received comparatively scant attention. This article examines the uses of satellite-collected images in human rights contexts including the opportunities, challenges and risks they pose. We conclude this examination by arguing that if satellites are to be used effectively to collect evidence from above by rights advocates, greater attention to and capacity for ensuring accountability from below is required.

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Integration of Grid and Sensor Web for Flood Monitoring and Risk Assessment from Heterogeneous Data

Science.gov (United States)

Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

2013-04-01

Over last decades we have witnessed the upward global trend in natural disaster occurrence. Hydrological and meteorological disasters such as floods are the main contributors to this pattern. In recent years flood management has shifted from protection against floods to managing the risks of floods (the European Flood risk directive). In order to enable operational flood monitoring and assessment of flood risk, it is required to provide an infrastructure with standardized interfaces and services. Grid and Sensor Web can meet these requirements. In this paper we present a general approach to flood monitoring and risk assessment based on heterogeneous geospatial data acquired from multiple sources. To enable operational flood risk assessment integration of Grid and Sensor Web approaches is proposed [1]. Grid represents a distributed environment that integrates heterogeneous computing and storage resources administrated by multiple organizations. SensorWeb is an emerging paradigm for integrating heterogeneous satellite and in situ sensors and data systems into a common informational infrastructure that produces products on demand. The basic Sensor Web functionality includes sensor discovery, triggering events by observed or predicted conditions, remote data access and processing capabilities to generate and deliver data products. Sensor Web is governed by the set of standards, called Sensor Web Enablement (SWE), developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Different practical issues regarding integration of Sensor Web with Grids are discussed in the study. We show how the Sensor Web can benefit from using Grids and vice versa. For example, Sensor Web services such as SOS, SPS and SAS can benefit from the integration with the Grid platform like Globus Toolkit. The proposed approach is implemented within the Sensor Web framework for flood monitoring and risk assessment, and a case-study of exploiting this framework, namely the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project, is

Emergency Response Damage Assessment using Satellite Remote Sensing Data

Science.gov (United States)

Clandillon, Stephen; Yésou, Hervé; Schneiderhan, Tobias; de Boissezon, Hélène; de Fraipont, Paul

2013-04-01

During disasters rescue and relief organisations need quick access to reliable and accurate information to be better equipped to do their job. It is increasingly felt that satellites offer a unique near real time (NRT) tool to aid disaster management. A short introduction to the International Charter 'Space and Major Disasters', in operation since 2000 promoting worldwide cooperation among member space agencies, will be given as it is the foundation on which satellite-based, emergency response, damage assessment has been built. Other complementary mechanisms will also be discussed. The user access, triggering mechanism, an essential component for this user-driven service, will be highlighted with its 24/7 single access point. Then, a clear distinction will be made between data provision and geo-information delivery mechanisms to underline the user need for geo-information that is easily integrated into their working environments. Briefly, the path to assured emergency response product quality will be presented beginning with user requirements, expressed early-on, for emergency response value-adding services. Initiatives were then established, supported by national and European institutions, to develop the sector, with SERTIT and DLR being key players, providing support to decision makers in headquarters and relief teams in the field. To consistently meet the high quality levels demanded by users, rapid mapping has been transformed via workflow and quality control standardisation to improve both speed and quality. As such, SERTIT located in Alsace, France, and DLR/ZKI from Bavaria, Germany, join their knowledge in this presentation to report about recent standards as both have ISO certified their rapid mapping services based on experienced, well-trained, 24/7 on-call teams and established systems providing the first crisis analysis product in 6 hours after satellite data reception. The three main product types provided are then outlined: up-to-date pre

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Assessing satellite-based start-of-season trends in the US High Plains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, X; Sassenrath, G F; Hubbard, K G; Mahmood, R

2014-01-01

To adequately assess the effects of global warming it is necessary to address trends and impacts at the local level. This study examines phenological changes in the start-of-season (SOS) derived from satellite observations from 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. The surface climate-based SOS was also evaluated. The averaged profiles of SOS from 37° to 49°N latitude by satellite- and climate-based methods were in reasonable agreement, especially for areas where croplands were masked out and an additional frost date threshold was adopted. The statistically significant trends of satellite-based SOS show a later spring arrival ranging from 0.1 to 4.9 days decade −1 over nine Level III ecoregions. We found the croplands generally exhibited larger trends (later arrival) than the non-croplands. The area-averaged satellite-based SOS for non-croplands (i.e. mostly grasslands) showed no significant trends. We examined the trends of temperatures, precipitation, and standardized precipitation index (SPI), as well as the strength of correlation between the satellite-based SOS and these climatic drivers. Our results indicate that satellite-based SOS trends are spatially and primarily related to annual maximum normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, mostly in summertime) and/or annual minimum NDVI (mostly in wintertime) and these trends showed the best correlation with six-month SPI over the period 1982–2008 in the US High Plains region. (letter)

Offshore Wind Resources Assessment from Multiple Satellite Data and WRF Modeling over South China Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rui Chang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Using accurate inputs of wind speed is crucial in wind resource assessment, as predicted power is proportional to the wind speed cubed. This study outlines a methodology for combining multiple ocean satellite winds and winds from WRF simulations in order to acquire the accurate reconstructed offshore winds which can be used for offshore wind resource assessment. First, wind speeds retrieved from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR and Scatterometer ASCAT images were validated against in situ measurements from seven coastal meteorological stations in South China Sea (SCS. The wind roses from the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS and ASCAT agree well with these observations from the corresponding in situ measurements. The statistical results comparing in situ wind speed and SAR-based (ASCAT-based wind speed for the whole co-located samples show a standard deviation (SD of 2.09 m/s (1.83 m/s and correlation coefficient of R 0.75 (0.80. When the offshore winds (i.e., winds directed from land to sea are excluded, the comparison results for wind speeds show an improvement of SD and R, indicating that the satellite data are more credible over the open ocean. Meanwhile, the validation of satellite winds against the same co-located mast observations shows a satisfactory level of accuracy which was similar for SAR and ASCAT winds. These satellite winds are then assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF Model by WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA system. Finally, the wind resource statistics at 100 m height based on the reconstructed winds have been achieved over the study area, which fully combines the offshore wind information from multiple satellite data and numerical model. The findings presented here may be useful in future wind resource assessment based on satellite data.

Construction of a Risk Assessment Model for Rainfall-Induced Landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chen, Jing-Wen; Lin, Wei-Chung

2013-04-01

The unstable geology and steep terrain in the mountainous regions of Taiwan make these areas vulnerable to landslides and debris flow during typhoons and heavy rains. According to the Water Resources Agency, Ministry of Economic Affairs of Taiwan, there were 500 typhoons and over one thousand storms in Taiwan between 1897 and 2011. Natural disasters caused 3.5 billion USD of damage between 1983 and 2011. Thus, the construction of risk assessment model for landslides is essential to disaster prevention. This study employed genetic adaptive neural networks (GANN) with texture analysis in the classification of high-resolution satellite images from which data related to surface conditions in mountainous areas of Taiwan were derived. Ten landslide hazard potential factors are included: slope, geology, elevation, distance from the fault, distance from water, terrain roughness, slope roughness, effective accumulated rainfall and developing situation. By using correlation test, GANN, weight analysis and dangerous value method, levels and probabilities of landslide of the research areas are presented. Then, through geographic information system the landslide potential map is plotted to distinguish high potential regions from low potential regions. Through field surveys, interviews with district officials and a review of relevant literature, the probability of a sediment disaster was estimated as well as the vulnerability of the villages concerned and the degree to which these villages were prepared, to construct a risk evaluation model. The regional risk map was plotted with the help of GIS and the landslide assessment model. The risk assessment model can be used by authorities to make provisions for high-risk areas, to reduce the number of casualties and social costs of sediment disasters.

Use of Satellite SAR Data for Seismic Risk Management: Results from the Pre-Operational ASI-SIGRIS Project

Science.gov (United States)

Salvi, Stefano; Vignoli, Stefano; Zoffoli, Simona; Bosi, Vittorio

2010-12-01

The scope of the SIGRIS pilot project is the development of an infrastructure to provide value-added information services for the seismic risk management, assuring a close integration between ground-based and satellite Earth Observation data. The project is presently in the demonstration phase, and various information products are constantly generated and disseminated to the main user, the Italian Civil Protection Department. We show some examples of the products generated during the Crisis management of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Central Italy. We also show an example of products generated for the Knowledge and Prevention service in support of the seismic hazard assessment in the area of the Straits of Messina.

Satellite navigation—Amazing technology but insidious risk: Why everyone needs to understand space weather

Science.gov (United States)

Hapgood, Mike

2017-04-01

Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) are one of the technological wonders of the modern world. Popularly known as satellite navigation, these systems have provided global access to precision location and timing services and have thereby stimulated advances in industry and consumer services, including all forms of transport, telecommunications, financial trading, and even the synchronization of power grids. But this wonderful technology is at risk from natural phenomena in the form of space weather. GNSS signals experience a slight delay as they pass through the ionosphere. This delay varies with space weather conditions and is the most significant source of error for GNSS. Scientific efforts to correct these errors have stimulated billions of dollars of investment in systems that provide accurate correction data for suitably equipped GNSS receivers in a growing number of regions around the world. This accuracy is essential for GNSS use by aircraft and ships. Space weather also provides a further occasional but severe risk to GNSS: an extreme space weather event may deny access to GNSS as ionospheric scintillation scrambles the radio signals from satellites, and rapid ionospheric changes outstrip the ability of error correction systems to supply accurate corrections. It is vital that GNSS users have a backup for such occasions, even if it is only to hunker down and weather the storm.

Health and safety: Preliminary comparative assessment of the Satellite Power System (SPS) and other energy alternatives

Science.gov (United States)

Habegger, L. J.; Gasper, J. R.; Brown, C.

1980-01-01

Data readily available from the literature were used to make an initial comparison of the health and safety risks of a fission power system with fuel reprocessing; a combined-cycle coal power system with a low-Btu gasifier and open-cycle gas turbine; a central-station, terrestrial, solar photovoltaic power system; the satellite power system; and a first-generation fusion system. The assessment approach consists of the identification of health and safety issues in each phase of the energy cycle from raw material extraction through electrical generation, waste disposal, and system deactivation; quantitative or qualitative evaluation of impact severity; and the rating of each issue with regard to known or potential impact level and level of uncertainty.

Environmental assessment for the satellite power system concept development and evaluation program: atmospheric effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rote, D.M.; Brubaker, K.L.; Lee, J.L.

1980-11-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has undertaken a preliminary, three-year program to investigate the impacts of the construction and operation of a satellite power system, of unprecedented scale. The Department of Energy's program, titled The Concept Development and Evaluation Program, focused its investigations on a Reference System description that calls for the use of either silicon (Si) or gallium aluminum-arsenide (GaAlAs) photovoltaic cells on 60 satellites to be constructed in GEO over a 30-yr period. Rectennas would be constructed on the ground to receive microwave energy from the satellites. Each satellite-rectenna pair is designed to produce 5 GW of power on an essentially continuous basis for use as a baseload power source for an electric power distribution system. The environmental assessment part of the program was divided into five interdependent task areas. The present document constitutes the final technical report on one of the five task areas, the Assessment of the Atmospheric Effects, and as such presents an in-depth summary of work performed during the assessment program. The issues associated with SPS activities in the troposphere are examined. These include tropospheric weather modification related to rectenna operations and rocket launches, and air quality impacts related to rocketlaunch ground clouds. Then progressing upward through the various levels of the atmosphere, the principal middle and upper atmospheric effects associated with rocket effluents are analyzed. Finally, all of the potential SPS atmospheric effects are summarized

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

Chemical Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2017-07-01

The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

An optimization tool for satellite equipment layout

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Zheng; Liang, Yan-gang; Zhou, Jian-ping

2018-01-01

Selection of the satellite equipment layout with performance constraints is a complex task which can be viewed as a constrained multi-objective optimization and a multiple criteria decision making problem. The layout design of a satellite cabin involves the process of locating the required equipment in a limited space, thereby satisfying various behavioral constraints of the interior and exterior environments. The layout optimization of satellite cabin in this paper includes the C.G. offset, the moments of inertia and the space debris impact risk of the system, of which the impact risk index is developed to quantify the risk to a satellite cabin of coming into contact with space debris. In this paper an optimization tool for the integration of CAD software as well as the optimization algorithms is presented, which is developed to automatically find solutions for a three-dimensional layout of equipment in satellite. The effectiveness of the tool is also demonstrated by applying to the layout optimization of a satellite platform.

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF VERY HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE AND AERIAL ORTHOIMAGERY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Agrafiotis

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to assess the accuracy and radiometric quality of orthorectified high resolution satellite imagery from Pleiades-1B satellites through a comparative evaluation of their quantitative and qualitative properties. A Pleiades-B1 stereopair of high resolution images taken in 2013, two adjacent GeoEye-1 stereopairs from 2011 and aerial orthomosaic (LSO provided by NCMA S.A (Hellenic Cadastre from 2007 have been used for the comparison tests. As control dataset orthomosaic from aerial imagery provided also by NCMA S.A (0.25m GSD from 2012 was selected. The process for DSM and orthoimage production was performed using commercial digital photogrammetric workstations. The two resulting orthoimages and the aerial orthomosaic (LSO were relatively and absolutely evaluated for their quantitative and qualitative properties. Test measurements were performed using the same check points in order to establish their accuracy both as far as the single point coordinates as well as their distances are concerned. Check points were distributed according to JRC Guidelines for Best Practice and Quality Checking of Ortho Imagery and NSSDA standards while areas with different terrain relief and land cover were also included. The tests performed were based also on JRC and NSSDA accuracy standards. Finally, tests were carried out in order to assess the radiometric quality of the orthoimagery. The results are presented with a statistical analysis and they are evaluated in order to present the merits and demerits of the imaging sensors involved for orthoimage production. The results also serve for a critical approach for the usability and cost efficiency of satellite imagery for the production of Large Scale Orthophotos.

Blending satellite data and RADAR tool for rapid flood damage assessment in Agriculture: A case study in Sri Lanka

Science.gov (United States)

Amarnath, Giriraj; Inada, Yoshiaki; Inoue, Ryosuke; Alahacoon, Niranga; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2014-05-01

During the catastrophic flooding it is critically important to estimate losses as it is essential for facilitating good decision making at the district, province and national levels of government and to appraise aid agencies for necessary assistance. Flood loss estimates can also be used to evaluate the cost effectiveness of alternative approaches to strengthening flood control measures. In the case of Sri Lanka there were limited knowledge and application system exist for carrying out rapid damage assessment for Agriculture in Sri Lanka. FAO has developed the tool "Rapid Agricultural Disaster Assessment Routine" (RADAR) based on theoretical approach that uses simple tools for assessing the impact on agriculture of a disastrous event. There are two knowledge bases that contain information needed for calculation of the value loss or damage. The procedure of rapid impact assessment implies the use of knowledge-bases, database and GIS. In this study, the user friendly application of RADAR system has been developed. Three components were considered including agriculture, livestock and farmers asset to estimate the losses. The application will allow estimating flood damage at various scales and this being tested at district level and specific example for the 2011 floods in Sri Lanka. In order to understand flood inundation cycle, time-series optical MODIS satellite data (2000-2011) and microwave ALOS PALSAR (2006-2011) were used to derive annual flood extent, flood duration and recurrent areas to identify flood risk and impact of seasonal flooding on agriculture. This study demonstrates how RADAR & satellite-based flood products can be effectively used for rapid damage assessment and managing the floods.

Soil salinity assessment through satellite thermography for different irrigated and rainfed crops

Science.gov (United States)

Ivushkin, Konstantin; Bartholomeus, Harm; Bregt, Arnold K.; Pulatov, Alim; Bui, Elisabeth N.; Wilford, John

2018-06-01

The use of canopy thermography is an innovative approach for salinity stress detection in plants. But its applicability for landscape scale studies using satellite sensors is still not well investigated. The aim of this research is to test the satellite thermography soil salinity assessment approach on a study area with different crops, grown both in irrigated and rainfed conditions, to evaluate whether the approach has general applicability. Four study areas in four different states of Australia were selected to give broad representation of different crops cultivated under irrigated and rainfed conditions. The soil salinity map was prepared by the staff of Geoscience Australia and CSIRO Land and Water and it is based on thorough soil sampling together with environmental modelling. Remote sensing data was captured by the Landsat 5 TM satellite. In the analysis we used vegetation indices and brightness temperature as an indicator for canopy temperature. Applying analysis of variance and time series we have investigated the applicability of satellite remote sensing of canopy temperature as an approach of soil salinity assessment for different crops grown under irrigated and rainfed conditions. We concluded that in all cases average canopy temperatures were significantly correlated with soil salinity of the area. This relation is valid for all investigated crops, grown both irrigated and rainfed. Nevertheless, crop type does influence the strength of the relations. In our case cotton shows only minor temperature difference compared to other vegetation classes. The strongest relations between canopy temperature and soil salinity were observed at the moment of a maximum green biomass of the crops which is thus considered to be the best time for application of the approach.

Methodology for the comparative assessment of the Satellite Power System (SPS) and alternative technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wolsko, T.; Buehring, W.; Cirillo, R.; Gasper, J.; Habegger, L.; Hub, K.; Newsom, D.; Samsa, M.; Stenehjem, E.; Whitfield, R.

1980-01-01

A description of the initial methodology for the Comparative Assessment of the Satellite Power System Concept Development and Evaluation Program of NASA and DOE is presented. Included are study objectives, issue identification, units of measurement, methods, and data bases. The energy systems concerned are the satellite power system, several coal technologies, geothermal energy, fission, fusion, terrestrial solar systems, and ocean thermal energy conversion. Guidelines are suggested for the characterization of these systems, side-by-side analysis, alternative futures analysis, and integration and aggregation of data. The bulk of this report is a description of the methods for assessing the technical, economic, environmental, societal, and institutional issues surrounding the development of the selected energy technologies.

Risk management and lessons learned solutions for satellite product assurance

Science.gov (United States)

Larrère, Jean-Luc

2004-08-01

The historic trend of the space industry towards lower cost programmes and more generally a better economic efficiency raises a difficult question to the quality assurance community: how to achieve the same—or better—mission success rate while drastically reducing the cost of programmes, hence the cost and level of quality assurance activities. EADS Astrium Earth Observation and Science (France) Business Unit have experimented Risk Management and Lessons Learned on their satellite programmes to achieve this goal. Risk analysis and management are deployed from the programme proposal phase through the development and operations phases. Results of the analysis and the corresponding risk mitigation actions are used to tailor the product assurance programme and activities. Lessons learned have been deployed as a systematic process to collect positive and negative experience from past and on-going programmes and feed them into new programmes. Monitoring and justification of their implementation in programmes is done under supervision from the BU quality assurance function. Control of the system is ensured by the company internal review system. Deployment of these methods has shown that the quality assurance function becomes more integrated in the programme team and development process and that its tasks gain focus and efficiency while minimising the risks associated with new space programmes.

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

Assessment of Lake Water Quality and Quantity Using Satellite Remote Sensing

Science.gov (United States)

Daniel, K. C.; Suresh, A.; Paredes Mesa, S.

2017-12-01

Lakes are one of the few sources of freshwater used throughout the world but due to human activities, its quality and availability has been decreasing. The drying of lakes is a concerning issue in different communities around the world. This problem can affect jobs and the lives of individuals who use lakes as a source of income, consumption and recreation. Another dilemma that has occurred in lakes is eutrophication which is the buildup of excess nutrients in the lakes caused by runoff. This natural process can lead to anoxic conditions that may have a detrimental impact on surrounding ecosystems. Therefore, causing a devastating impact to economies and human livelihood worldwide. To monitor these issues, satellite data can be used to assess the water quality of different lakes throughout the world. Landsat satellite data from the past 10 years was used to conduct this research. By using the IOP (Inherent Optical Properties) of chlorophyll and suspended solids in the visible spectrum, the presence of algal blooms and sediments was determined. ARCGIS was used to outline the areas of the lakes and obtain reflectance values for quantity and quality assessment. Because there is always a certain amount of contamination in the lake, this research is used to evaluate the condition of the lakes throughout the years. Using the data that we have collected, we are able to understand how the issues addressed can harm civilians seasonally. Key Words: Lakes, Water Quality, Algal Blooms, Eutrophication, Remote Sensing, Satellite DataData Source: Landsat 4, Landsat 5, Landsat 7, Landsat 8

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

Environmental assessment for the Satellite Power System (SPS) Concept Development and Evaluation Program (CDEP). [Microwave and non-microwave health and ecological assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valentino, A.R.

1980-08-01

In the satellite power system (SPS), satellites in geosynchronous earth orbit would collect solar energy in space, convert it to microwaves, and transmit the microwaves to receiving antennas (rectennas) on earth. At the rectennas, the microwave energy would be converted to electricity. This SPS environmental assessment considers the microwave and nonmicrowave effects on the terrestrial environment and human health, atmospheric effects, and effects on electromagnetic systems. No environmental problem has been identified that would preclude the continued study of SPS technology. To increase the certainty of the assessment, some research has been initiated and long-term research is being planned.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Satellite Monitoring for Early Warning and Triggering Disaster Risk Financing in Uganda

Science.gov (United States)

Nakalembe, C. L.; Owor, M.

2016-12-01

Natural disasters typically occur with little warning and can have grave and long-lasting negative consequences especially for populations fully dependent on rainfed agriculture. Disaster risk financing (DRF) aims to scale up alternative livelihoods such as Labour Intensive Public Works (LIPW) when a disaster hits to minimize the likely impacts on communities. In data-rich regions triggering DRF or crop insurances payouts can be easily implemented e.g in the case of agriculture, yield losses due to drought can be measured directly. This is constrained in Uganda, because seasonal/annual production data are scarce due to the subsistence and smallholder nature of agriculture in addition to low capacity for data collection and analysis in the country. Satellite remote sensing based indices, in particular the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), provides an objective and dependable solution to this challenge. Using MODIS satellite imagery provided through the GLAM East-Africa portal (Global Agricultural Monitoring system adapted for East-Africa) for obtaining NDVI time-series in near real-time, the Office of the Prime Minister of Uganda (OPM) is designing an operational crop conditions monitoring system in support of its recently initiated DRF Project, under the Third Northern Uganda Social Action Fund (NUSAF 2). The basis for triggering the DRF mechanism under this project is the deviation from the long-term NDVI (NDVI Anomaly data) within the growing season beyond a defined threshold. The NDVI data that are preprocessed in the GLAM system offer spatially explicit information on vegetation and crop conditions forming an adequate base for assessing generalized growing season conditions and enabling the quick implementation of DRF using transparent and objective criteria. The system and criteria serve also as an early-warning mechanism as the NDVI anomaly approaches the triggering threshold allowing time for planning and implementing LIPW projects.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Preliminary environmental assessment for the satellite power system (SPS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1978-10-01

A preliminary assessment of the impact of the Satellite Power System (SPS) on the environment is presented. Information that has appeared in documents referenced herein is integrated and assimilated. The state-of-knowledge as perceived from recently completed DOE-sponsored studies is disclosed, and prospective research and study programs that can advance the state-of-knowledge and provide an expanded data base for use in an assessment planned for 1980 are defined. Alternatives for research that may be implemented in order to achieve this advancement are also discussed in order that a plan can be selected which will be consistent with the fiscal and time constraints on the SPS Environmental Assessment Program. Health and ecological effects of microwave radiation, nonmicrowave effects on health and the environment (terrestrial operations and space operations), effects on the atmosphere, and effects on communications systems are examined in detail. (WHK)

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

Satellite-Based Assessment of Rainfall-Triggered Landslide Hazard for Situational Awareness

Science.gov (United States)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Stanley, Thomas

2018-03-01

Determining the time, location, and severity of natural disaster impacts is fundamental to formulating mitigation strategies, appropriate and timely responses, and robust recovery plans. A Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model was developed to indicate potential landslide activity in near real-time. LHASA combines satellite-based precipitation estimates with a landslide susceptibility map derived from information on slope, geology, road networks, fault zones, and forest loss. Precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission are used to identify rainfall conditions from the past 7 days. When rainfall is considered to be extreme and susceptibility values are moderate to very high, a "nowcast" is issued to indicate the times and places where landslides are more probable. When LHASA nowcasts were evaluated with a Global Landslide Catalog, the probability of detection (POD) ranged from 8% to 60%, depending on the evaluation period, precipitation product used, and the size of the spatial and temporal window considered around each landslide point. Applications of the LHASA system are also discussed, including how LHASA is used to estimate long-term trends in potential landslide activity at a nearly global scale and how it can be used as a tool to support disaster risk assessment. LHASA is intended to provide situational awareness of landslide hazards in near real-time, providing a flexible, open-source framework that can be adapted to other spatial and temporal scales based on data availability.

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

Evaluation of IRS-1C LISS-3 satellite data for Norway spruce defoliation assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Falkenstroem, H.

1999-02-01

Satellite based remote sensing supported by air photo and field surveys, provide a means to area covering forest health assessment on a regional scale. Landsat TM data has been extensively used in studies of spruce and fir defoliation in Europe and North America. The temporal coverage of Landsat TM in combination with cloudiness however restrict the availability of data. In this study the LISS-3 sensor onboard the Indian Resource Satellite, IRS-1C, was evaluated for defoliation assessments in Norway spruce (Picea abies) in the central part of Sweden. The near infrared wavelength band proved to be best correlated with mean stand defoliation. After normalisation of satellite data for topographic conditions, the correlation coefficient increased from -0,19 to -0,83. Normalising satellite data for species composition did not improve the results though. The correction coefficients involved in the procedure were originally developed for Landsat TM, and proved to be inadequate for the LISS-3 data set. A thorough examination of the effects of species composition on LISS-3 data is needed to yield better results. The correlation between observed defoliation in the verification stands and predicted (based on the inverse regression function between corrected NIR values and defoliation in reference stands) was 0,70, despite a very limited range of defoliation in the verification set. IRS-1C LISS-3 is fully comparable to Landsat TM for spruce defoliation studies, although the results would probably not be significantly improved 49 refs, 7 figs, 10 tabs

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

Assessing yield and fertilizer response in heterogeneous smallholder fields with UAVs and satellites

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schut, Antonius G.T.; Traore, Pierre C.S.; Blaes, Xavier; By, de Rolf A.

2018-01-01

Agricultural intensification and efficient use and targeting of fertilizer inputs on smallholder farms is key to sustainably improve food security. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate how high-resolution satellite and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images can be used to assess the spatial

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterhouse, Rachel

1992-01-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

Assessment of NPP VIIRS Ocean Color Data Products: Hope and Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Turpie, Kevin R.; Meister, Gerhard; Eplee, Gene; Barnes, Robert A.; Franz, Bryan; Patt, Frederick S.; Robinson, Wayne d.; McClain, Charles R.

2010-01-01

For several years, the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) NPP VIIRS Ocean Science Team (VOST) provided substantial scientific input to the NPP project regarding the use of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to create science quality ocean color data products. This work has culminated into an assessment of the NPP project and the VIIRS instrument's capability to produce science quality Ocean Color data products. The VOST concluded that many characteristics were similar to earlier instruments, including SeaWiFS or MODIS Aqua. Though instrument performance and calibration risks do exist, it was concluded that programmatic and algorithm issues dominate concerns. Keywords: NPP, VIIRS, Ocean Color, satellite remote sensing, climate data record.

Multiple Usage of Existing Satellite Sensors

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Keeney, James T

2006-01-01

.... Space offers a near-perfect vacuum to operate a passive or active sensor. Volume, mass and power on satellites is limited and risk management approaches tended to remove such sensors from satellite systems...

Satellites, tweets, forecasts: the future of flood disaster management?

Science.gov (United States)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Wania, Annett; Pappenberger, Florian; Salamon, Peter; Ramos, Maria Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Castillo, Carlos

2017-04-01

Floods have devastating effects on lives and livelihoods around the world. Structural flood defence measures such as dikes and dams can help protect people. However, it is the emerging science and technologies for flood disaster management and preparedness, such as increasingly accurate flood forecasting systems, high-resolution satellite monitoring, rapid risk mapping, and the unique strength of social media information and crowdsourcing, that are most promising for reducing the impacts of flooding. Here, we describe an innovative framework which integrates in real-time two components of the Copernicus Emergency mapping services, namely the European Flood Awareness System and the satellite-based Rapid Mapping, with new procedures for rapid risk assessment and social media and news monitoring. The integrated framework enables improved flood impact forecast, thanks to the real-time integration of forecasting and monitoring components, and increases the timeliness and efficiency of satellite mapping, with the aim of capturing flood peaks and following the evolution of flooding processes. Thanks to the proposed framework, emergency responders will have access to a broad range of timely and accurate information for more effective and robust planning, decision-making, and resource allocation.

Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

2016-04-01

Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2009-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

Assessment of Satellite Ocean Colour Radiometry and Derived Geophysical Products. Chapter 6.1

Science.gov (United States)

Melin, Frederic; Franz, Bryan A.

2014-01-01

Standardization of methods to assess and assign quality metrics to satellite ocean color radiometry and derived geophysical products has become paramount with the inclusion of the marine reflectance and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chla) as essential climate variables (ECV; [1]) and the recognition that optical remote sensing of the oceans can only contribute to climate research if and when a continuous succession of satellite missions can be shown to collectively provide a consistent, long-term record with known uncertainties. In 20 years, the community has made significant advancements toward that objective, but providing a complete uncertainty budget for all products and for all conditions remains a daunting task. In the retrieval of marine water-leaving radiance from observed top-of-atmosphere radiance, the sources of uncertainties include those associated with propagation of sensor noise and radiometric calibration and characterization errors, as well as a multitude of uncertainties associated with the modeling and removal of effects from the atmosphere and sea surface. This chapter describes some common approaches used to assess quality and consistency of ocean color satellite products and reviews the current status of uncertainty quantification in the field. Its focus is on the primary ocean color product, the spectrum of marine reflectance Rrs, but uncertainties in some derived products such as the Chla or inherent optical properties (IOPs) will also be considered.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

1997-01-01

Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

GAR Global Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

On risk assessment of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunii, Katsuhiko

2005-07-01

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

Estimating the Exposure of Coral Reefs and Seagrass Meadows to Land-Sourced Contaminants in River Flood Plumes of the Great Barrier Reef: Validating a Simple Satellite Risk Framework with Environmental Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline Petus

2016-03-01

Full Text Available River runoff and associated flood plumes (hereafter river plumes are a major source of land-sourced contaminants to the marine environment, and are a significant threat to coastal and marine ecosystems worldwide. Remote sensing monitoring products have been developed to map the spatial extent, composition and frequency of occurrence of river plumes in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR, Australia. There is, however, a need to incorporate these monitoring products into Risk Assessment Frameworks as management decision tools. A simple Satellite Risk Framework has been recently proposed to generate maps of potential risk to seagrass and coral reef ecosystems in the GBR focusing on the Austral tropical wet season. This framework was based on a “magnitude × likelihood” risk management approach and GBR plume water types mapped from satellite imagery. The GBR plume water types (so called “Primary” for the inshore plume waters, “Secondary” for the midshelf-plume waters and “Tertiary” for the offshore plume waters represent distinct concentrations and combinations of land-sourced and marine contaminants. The current study aimed to test and refine the methods of the Satellite Risk Framework. It compared predicted pollutant concentrations in plume water types (multi-annual average from 2005–2014 to published ecological thresholds, and combined this information with similarly long-term measures of seagrass and coral ecosystem health. The Satellite Risk Framework and newly-introduced multi-annual risk scores were successful in demonstrating where water conditions were, on average, correlated to adverse biological responses. Seagrass meadow abundance (multi-annual change in % cover was negatively correlated to the multi-annual risk score at the site level (R2 = 0.47, p < 0.05. Relationships between multi-annual risk scores and multi-annual changes in proportional macroalgae cover (as an index for coral reef health were more complex (R2 = 0.04, p

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Performance metrics for the assessment of satellite data products: an ocean color case study

Science.gov (United States)

Performance assessment of ocean color satellite data has generally relied on statistical metrics chosen for their common usage and the rationale for selecting certain metrics is infrequently explained. Commonly reported statistics based on mean squared errors, such as the coeffic...

Risk assessments ensure safer power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-02-19

A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

Validity of satellite measurements used for the monitoring of UV radiation risk on health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Jégou

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In order to test the validity of ultraviolet index (UVI satellite products and UVI model simulations for general public information, intercomparison involving three satellite instruments (SCIAMACHY, OMI and GOME-2, the Chemistry and Transport Model, Modélisation de la Chimie Atmosphérique Grande Echelle (MOCAGE, and ground-based instruments was performed in 2008 and 2009. The intercomparison highlighted a systematic high bias of ~1 UVI in the OMI clear-sky products compared to the SCIAMACHY and TUV model clear-sky products. The OMI and GOME-2 all-sky products are close to the ground-based observations with a low 6 % positive bias, comparable to the results found during the satellite validation campaigns. This result shows that OMI and GOME-2 all-sky products are well appropriate to evaluate the UV-risk on health. The study has pointed out the difficulty to take into account either in the retrieval algorithms or in the models, the large spatial and temporal cloud modification effect on UV radiation. This factor is crucial to provide good quality UV information. OMI and GOME-2 show a realistic UV variability as a function of the cloud cover. Nevertheless these satellite products do not sufficiently take into account the radiation reflected by clouds. MOCAGE numerical forecasts show good results during periods with low cloud covers, but are actually not adequate for overcast conditions; this is why Météo-France currently uses human-expertised cloudiness (rather than direct outputs from Numerical Prediction Models together with MOCAGE clear-sky UV indices for its operational forecasts. From now on, the UV monitoring could be done using free satellite products (OMI, GOME-2 and operational forecast for general public by using modelling, as long as cloud forecasts and the parametrisation of the impact of cloudiness on UV radiation are adequate.

Using satellite imagery to assess the influence of urban development on the impacts of extreme rainfall

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Drews, Martin; Madsen, Henrik

We investigate the applicability of medium resolution Landsat satellite imagery for mapping temporal changes in urban land cover for direct use in urban flood models. The overarching aim is to provide accurate and cost- and resource-efficient quantification of temporal changes in risk towards...

Assessing water availability over peninsular Malaysia using public domain satellite data products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, M I; Hashim, M; Zin, H S M

2014-01-01

Water availability monitoring is an essential task for water resource sustainability and security. In this paper, the assessment of satellite remote sensing technique for determining water availability is reported. The water-balance analysis is used to compute the spatio-temporal water availability with main inputs; the precipitation and actual evapotranspiration rate (AET), both fully derived from public-domain satellite products of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and MODIS, respectively. Both these satellite products were first subjected to calibration to suit corresponding selected local precipitation and AET samples. Multi-temporal data sets acquired 2000-2010 were used in this study. The results of study, indicated strong agreement of monthly water availability with the basin flow rate (r 2 = 0.5, p < 0.001). Similar agreements were also noted between the estimated annual average water availability with the in-situ measurement. It is therefore concluded that the method devised in this study provide a new alternative for water availability mapping over large area, hence offers the only timely and cost-effective method apart from providing comprehensive spatio-temporal patterns, crucial in water resource planning to ensure water security

Risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

2010-01-01

International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

Slope Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Tropics: Malaysia' Experience

Science.gov (United States)

Mohamad, Zakaria; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Ahmad, Ferdaus; Manap, Mohamad Abdul; Ramli, Zamri; Ahmad, Azhari; Mohamed, Zainab

2015-04-01

. Geological, morphological, and physical factors coupled with anthropogenic activities made the spatiotemporal prediction of possible slope failures very challenging. Changing climate and land-use-and-land-cover required a dynamic geo-system approach for assessing multi-hazard in Malaysia and it is still a great challenge to be dealt with. We also critically discussed the capability, limitation and future direction of geo-information tools particularly the active sensors for systematically providing the spatial input towards landslide hazard and possible risk. The cost-and-benefit of developed methods compared to traditional mapping techniques is also elaborated. This paper put forth the critical and practical framework ranging from updating landslide inventory to mitigating landslide risk as an attempt to support the establishment of a comprehensive landslide risk management in Malaysia. The advancement of multistage processing sequence based on airborne-, and ground-based laser remote sensing technology coupling with the sophisticated satellite positioning system, advanced geographical information system and expert knowledge leading to a better understanding of the landslide processes and their dynamics in time and space. Given the state-of-the-art of multi-sensor-LIDAR and complexity of tropical environment, this first landslide project carried out at the national scale provides a better indication and recommendation on the use of modern and advanced mapping technology for assessing tropical landslide geomorphology in an objective, reproducible and quantitative manner.

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

Science.gov (United States)

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis. Pc Behavior Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Vallejo, J.J.; Hejduk, M.D.; Stamey, J. D.

2015-01-01

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Rausand, Marvin

2011-01-01

With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

Multiple Usage of Existing Satellite Sensors (PREPRINT)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Keeney, James T

2006-01-01

.... Space offers a near-perfect vacuum to operate a passive or active sensor. Volume, mass and power on satellites is limited and risk management approaches tended to remove such sensors from satellite systems...

The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

2004-01-01

This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mousavi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Mihalchuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

Application of Satellite Data for Early Season Assessment of Fallowed Agricultural Lands for Drought Impact Reporting

Science.gov (United States)

Rosevelt, C.; Melton, F. S.; Johnson, L.; Verdin, J. P.; Thenkabail, P. S.; mueller, R.; Zakzeski, A.; Jones, J.

2013-12-01

Rapid assessment of drought impacts can aid water managers in assessing mitigation options, and guide decision making with respect to requests for local water transfers, county drought disaster designations, or state emergency proclamations. Satellite remote sensing offers an efficient way to provide quantitative assessments of drought impacts on agricultural production and land fallowing associated with reductions in water supply. A key advantage of satellite-based assessments is that they can provide a measure of land fallowing that is consistent across both space and time. Here we describe an approach for monthly mapping of land fallowing developed as part of a joint effort by USGS, USDA, and NASA to provide timely assessments of land fallowing during drought events. This effort has used the Central Valley of California as a pilot region for development and testing of an operational approach. To provide quantitative measures of fallowed land from satellite data early in the season, we developed a decision tree algorithm and applied it to timeseries of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from Landsat TM, ETM+, and MODIS. Our effort has been focused on development of leading indicators of drought impacts in the March - June timeframe based on measures of crop development patterns relative to a reference period with average or above average rainfall. This capability complements ongoing work by USDA to produce and publicly release within-season estimates of fallowed acreage from the USDA Cropland Data Layer. To assess the accuracy of the algorithms, monthly ground validation surveys were conducted along transects across the Central Valley at more than 200 fields per month from March - June, 2013. Here we present the algorithm for mapping fallowed acreage early in the season along with results from the accuracy assessment, and discuss potential applications to other regions.

Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Hrdová, Edita

2012-01-01

This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

HTGR accident and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

1982-01-01

This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Risk assessment and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisk, D.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

Risk assessment and the environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1988-01-01

A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

Application of satellite imagery to monitoring human rights abuse of vulnerable communities, with minimal risk to relief staff

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lavers, C; Bishop, C; Hawkins, O; Grealey, E; Cox, C; Thomas, D; Trimel, S

2009-01-01

Space imagery offers remote surveillance of ethnic people groups at risk of human rights abuse. We highlight work in alleged violations in Burma and Sudan, using satellite imagery for verification with Amnesty International. We consider how imaging may effectively support small to medium-sized Non Governmental Organisations and charities, e.g. HART, working in dangerous zones on the ground. Satellite based sensing applications are now at a sufficiently mature stage for moderate Governmental funding levels to help prevent human rights abuse, rather than the greater cost of rebuilding communities and healing sectarian divisions after abuse has taken place.

Application of satellite imagery to monitoring human rights abuse of vulnerable communities, with minimal risk to relief staff

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavers, C; Bishop, C; Hawkins, O; Grealey, E; Cox, C; Thomas, D; Trimel, S, E-mail: brnc-radarcomms1@nrta.mod.u [Sensors Team, Plymouth University at Britannia Royal Naval College, Dartmouth (United Kingdom); DMC International Imaging, Tycho House, Surrey Research Park, Guildford (United Kingdom); Qinetiq, Cody Technology Park, Cody Building, Ively Road, Farnborough (United Kingdom); Humanitarian Aid Relief Trust (HART), 3 Arnellan House, Kingsbury, London (United Kingdom); Amnesty International USA, 5 Penn Plaza, New York (United States)

2009-07-01

Space imagery offers remote surveillance of ethnic people groups at risk of human rights abuse. We highlight work in alleged violations in Burma and Sudan, using satellite imagery for verification with Amnesty International. We consider how imaging may effectively support small to medium-sized Non Governmental Organisations and charities, e.g. HART, working in dangerous zones on the ground. Satellite based sensing applications are now at a sufficiently mature stage for moderate Governmental funding levels to help prevent human rights abuse, rather than the greater cost of rebuilding communities and healing sectarian divisions after abuse has taken place.

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

Science.gov (United States)

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, K.C.

1992-01-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

1992-07-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

OpenAIRE

Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

2017-01-01

The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrese, Edward J

2015-04-01

The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Părăian Mihaela

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

Assessment of a satellite power system and six alternative technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wolsko, T.; Whitfield, R.; Samsa, M.; Habegger, L.S.; Levine, E.; Tanzman, E.

1981-04-01

The satellite power system is assessed in comparison to six alternative technologies. The alternatives are: central-station terrestrial photovoltaic systems, conventional coal-fired power plants, coal-gasification/combined-cycle power plants, light water reactor power plants, liquid-metal fast-breeder reactors, and fusion. The comparison is made regarding issues of cost and performance, health and safety, environmental effects, resources, socio-economic factors, and insitutional issues. The criteria for selecting the issues and the alternative technologies are given, and the methodology of the comparison is discussed. Brief descriptions of each of the technologies considered are included. (LEW)

Chlorine transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

1977-02-01

An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

Risk assessment in maritime transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

2001-01-01

A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

Framework for ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

1992-02-01

Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

2012-04-01

To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

Space Weather Impacts to Conjunction Assessment: A NASA Robotic Orbital Safety Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Ghrist, Richard; Ghrist, Richard; DeHart, Russel; Newman, Lauri

2013-01-01

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recognizes the risk of on-orbit collisions from other satellites and debris objects and has instituted a process to identify and react to close approaches. The charter of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) task is to protect NASA robotic (unmanned) assets from threats posed by other space objects. Monitoring for potential collisions requires formulating close-approach predictions a week or more in the future to determine analyze, and respond to orbital conjunction events of interest. These predictions require propagation of the latest state vector and covariance assuming a predicted atmospheric density and ballistic coefficient. Any differences between the predicted drag used for propagation and the actual drag experienced by the space objects can potentially affect the conjunction event. Therefore, the space environment itself, in particular how space weather impacts atmospheric drag, is an essential element to understand in order effectively to assess the risk of conjunction events. The focus of this research is to develop a better understanding of the impact of space weather on conjunction assessment activities: both accurately determining the current risk and assessing how that risk may change under dynamic space weather conditions. We are engaged in a data-- ]mining exercise to corroborate whether or not observed changes in a conjunction event's dynamics appear consistent with space weather changes and are interested in developing a framework to respond appropriately to uncertainty in predicted space weather. In particular, we use historical conjunction event data products to search for dynamical effects on satellite orbits from changing atmospheric drag. Increased drag is expected to lower the satellite specific energy and will result in the satellite's being 'later' than expected, which can affect satellite conjunctions in a number of ways depending on the two satellites' orbits

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Assessment of different topographic corrections in AWiFS satellite ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment, Defence Research and Development Organisation,. Chandigarh 160 ... IRS P6 satellite images and the qualitative and quantitative comparative analysis in detail. Both .... Top: AWiFS satellite image of Western Himalaya and bottom: zoom image of the study area shown with white.

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Estimating Rain Attenuation In Satellite Communication Links

Science.gov (United States)

Manning, R. M.

1991-01-01

Attenuation computed with help of statistical model and meteorological data. NASA Lewis Research Center Satellite Link Attenuation Model (SLAM) program QuickBASIC computer program evaluating static and dynamic statistical assessment of impact of rain attenuation on communication link established between Earth terminal and geosynchronous satellite. Application in specification, design, and assessment of satellite communication links for any terminal location in continental United States. Written in Microsoft QuickBASIC.

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana G. Feoktistova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Trajectory Design to Mitigate Risk on the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) Mission

Science.gov (United States)

Dichmann, Donald

2016-01-01

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several orbit constraints. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and to optimize nominal trajectories, check constraint satisfaction, and finally model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

Satellite communications network design and analysis

CERN Document Server

Jo, Kenneth Y

2011-01-01

This authoritative book provides a thorough understanding of the fundamental concepts of satellite communications (SATCOM) network design and performance assessments. You find discussions on a wide class of SATCOM networks using satellites as core components, as well as coverage key applications in the field. This in-depth resource presents a broad range of critical topics, from geosynchronous Earth orbiting (GEO) satellites and direct broadcast satellite systems, to low Earth orbiting (LEO) satellites, radio standards and protocols.This invaluable reference explains the many specific uses of

Global trends in satellite-based emergency mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Voigt, Stefan; Giulio-Tonolo, Fabio; Lyons, Josh; Kučera, Jan; Jones, Brenda; Schneiderhan, Tobias; Platzeck, Gabriel; Kaku, Kazuya; Hazarika, Manzul Kumar; Czaran, Lorant; Li, Suju; Pedersen, Wendi; James, Godstime Kadiri; Proy, Catherine; Muthike, Denis Macharia; Bequignon, Jerome; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2016-01-01

Over the past 15 years, scientists and disaster responders have increasingly used satellite-based Earth observations for global rapid assessment of disaster situations. We review global trends in satellite rapid response and emergency mapping from 2000 to 2014, analyzing more than 1000 incidents in which satellite monitoring was used for assessing major disaster situations. We provide a synthesis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in global satellite emergency mapping efforts and show that satellite-based emergency mapping is most intensively deployed in Asia and Europe and follows well the geographic, physical, and temporal distributions of global natural disasters. We present an outlook on the future use of Earth observation technology for disaster response and mitigation by putting past and current developments into context and perspective.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-11-15

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Accuracy assessment of topographic mapping using UAV image integrated with satellite images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azmi, S M; Ahmad, Baharin; Ahmad, Anuar

2014-01-01

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle or UAV is extensively applied in various fields such as military applications, archaeology, agriculture and scientific research. This study focuses on topographic mapping and map updating. UAV is one of the alternative ways to ease the process of acquiring data with lower operating costs, low manufacturing and operational costs, plus it is easy to operate. Furthermore, UAV images will be integrated with QuickBird images that are used as base maps. The objective of this study is to make accuracy assessment and comparison between topographic mapping using UAV images integrated with aerial photograph and satellite image. The main purpose of using UAV image is as a replacement for cloud covered area which normally exists in aerial photograph and satellite image, and for updating topographic map. Meanwhile, spatial resolution, pixel size, scale, geometric accuracy and correction, image quality and information contents are important requirements needed for the generation of topographic map using these kinds of data. In this study, ground control points (GCPs) and check points (CPs) were established using real time kinematic Global Positioning System (RTK-GPS) technique. There are two types of analysis that are carried out in this study which are quantitative and qualitative assessments. Quantitative assessment is carried out by calculating root mean square error (RMSE). The outputs of this study include topographic map and orthophoto. From this study, the accuracy of UAV image is ± 0.460 m. As conclusion, UAV image has the potential to be used for updating of topographic maps

Risk assessment - black art or science?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, G.

1988-01-01

Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

Concerning ethical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeckle, F.

1991-01-01

After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

Ecological risk assessment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

2007-01-01

Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

Coupling of ground biosensor networks for water monitoring with satellite observations in assessing Leptospirosis

Science.gov (United States)

Skouloudis, A. N.; Rickerby, D. G.

2012-12-01

Leptospirosis became recently a major public-health problem that is closely related with the environment (Nature review Oct 2009, Vol 7, pp 736-747). This disease originates from zoonotic pathogens associated with asymptomatic rodent carriers. Unfortunately, it effects human populations via various direct and indirect routes. This disease can claim many victims with large outbreaks during natural disasters or floods occurring during seasonal conditions. The severity of the illness ranges from subclinical infection to a fulminating fatal disease. Improved water quality monitoring techniques based on biosensor, optical, micro-fluidic and information technologies are leading to radical changes in our ability to perceive and monitor the aquatic environment. Biosensors are capable of providing specific, high spatial resolution information and allow unattended operation that will be particularly useful for water borne related diseases. Current research on biosensors is leading to solutions to problems for several contaminants that were previously irresolvable due to their high degree of complexity. Networking of the sensors enables sensitive monitoring systems allowing real-time monitoring of pollutants and facilitates data transmission between the measurement points and central control stations for continuous surveillance and to provide an early warning capability. The application of intelligent biosensor networks for water quality monitoring and detection of localized sources of pollution are discussed together with the setting up of a methodology that utilizes images from satellite coupled with in-situ sensors for anticipating the zones of potential evolution of this disease and assessing the population at risk. Environmental and climatic conditions that are associated the outbreaks are described and the rational of combining earth observations coupled with advanced in-situ biosensors is explained. The implementation of sensor networks for data collection and exposure

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2001-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

Caries risk assessment in children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, S

2016-01-01

PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

[Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

2012-12-01

Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

Assessing the Regional/Diurnal Bias between Satellite Retrievals and GEOS-5/MERRA Model Estimates of Land Surface Temperature

Science.gov (United States)

Scarino, B. R.; Smith, W. L., Jr.; Minnis, P.; Bedka, K. M.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric models rely on high-accuracy, high-resolution initial radiometric and surface conditions for better short-term meteorological forecasts, as well as improved evaluation of global climate models. Continuous remote sensing of the Earth's energy budget, as conducted by the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project, allows for near-realtime evaluation of cloud and surface radiation properties. It is unfortunately common for there to be bias between atmospheric/surface radiation models and Earth-observations. For example, satellite-observed surface skin temperature (Ts), an important parameter for characterizing the energy exchange at the ground/water-atmosphere interface, can be biased due to atmospheric adjustment assumptions and anisotropy effects. Similarly, models are potentially biased by errors in initial conditions and regional forcing assumptions, which can be mitigated through assimilation with true measurements. As such, when frequent, broad-coverage, and accurate retrievals of satellite Ts are available, important insights into model estimates of Ts can be gained. The Satellite ClOud and Radiation Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) employs a single-channel thermal-infrared method to produce anisotropy-corrected Ts over clear-sky land and ocean surfaces from data taken by geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite imagers. Regional and diurnal changes in model land surface temperature (LST) performance can be assessed owing to the somewhat continuous measurements of the LST offered by GEO satellites - measurements which are accurate to within 0.2 K. A seasonal, hourly comparison of satellite-observed LST with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) LST estimates is conducted to reveal regional and diurnal biases. This assessment is an important first step for evaluating the effectiveness of Ts assimilation, as well for determining the

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

Science.gov (United States)

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

The Accuracy Assessment of Determining the Axis of Railway Track Basing on the Satellite Surveying

Science.gov (United States)

Koc, Władysław; Specht, Cezary; Chrostowski, Piotr; Palikowska, Katarzyna

2012-09-01

In 2009, at the Gdansk University of Technology there have been carried out, for the first time, continuous satellite surveying of railway track by the use of the relative phase method based on geodesic active network ASG-EUPOS and NAVGEO service. Still continuing research works focused on the GNSS multi-receivers platform evaluation for projecting and stock-taking. In order to assess the accuracy of the railway track axis position, the values of deviations of transverse position XTE (Cross Track Error) were evaluated. In order to eliminate the influence of random measurement errors and to obtain the coordinates representing the actual shape of the track, the XTE variable was analyzed by signal analysis methods (Chebyshev low-pass filtering and fast Fourier transform). At the end the paper presents the module of the computer software SATTRACK which currently has been developing at the Gdansk University of Technology. The program serves visualization, assessment and design process of railway track, adapted to the technique of continuous satellite surveying. The module called TRACK STRAIGHT is designed to assess the straight sections. A description of its operation as well as examples of its functions has been presented.

Probability of satellite collision

Science.gov (United States)

Mccarter, J. W.

1972-01-01

A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

Modeling for operational event risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.

1997-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

Assessing and monitoring the risk of desertification in Dobrogea, Romania, using Landsat data and decision tree classifier.

Science.gov (United States)

Vorovencii, Iosif

2015-04-01

The risk of the desertification of a part of Romania is increasingly evident, constituting a serious problem for the environment and the society. This article attempts to assess and monitor the risk of desertification in Dobrogea using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite images acquired in 1987, 1994, 2000, 2007 and 2011. In order to assess the risk of desertification, we used as indicators the Modified Soil Adjustment Vegetation Index 1 (MSAVI1), the Moving Standard Deviation Index (MSDI) and the albedo, indices relating to the vegetation conditions, the landscape pattern and micrometeorology. The decision tree classifier (DTC) was also used on the basis of pre-established rules, and maps displaying six grades of desertification risk were obtained: non, very low, low, medium, high and severe. Land surface temperature (LST) was also used for the analysis. The results indicate that, according to pre-established rules for the period of 1987-2011, there are two grades of desertification risk that have an ascending trend in Dobrogea, namely very low and medium desertification. An investigation into the causes of the desertification risk revealed that high temperature is the main factor, accompanied by the destruction of forest shelterbelts and of the irrigation system and, to a smaller extent, by the fragmentation of agricultural land and the deforestation in the study area.

Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

Science.gov (United States)

Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

2005-03-01

One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birnbacher, D.

1991-01-01

Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2011-09-01

The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-01-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Satellite based wind resource assessment over the South China Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Badger, Merete; Astrup, Poul; Hasager, Charlotte Bay

2014-01-01

variations are clearly visible across the domain; for instance sheltering effects caused by the land masses. The satellite based wind resource maps have two shortcomings. One is the lack of information at the higher vertical levels where wind turbines operate. The other is the limited number of overlapping...... years of WRF data – specifically the parameters heat flux, air temperature, and friction velocity – are used to calculate a long-term correction for atmospheric stability effects. The stability correction is applied to the satellite based wind resource maps together with a vertical wind profile...... from satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data are particularly suitable for offshore wind energy applications because they offer a spatial resolution up to 500 m and include coastal seas. In this presentation, satellite wind maps are used in combination with mast observations and numerical...

Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deriot, S.

1992-10-01

This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Fielder

2018-06-01

Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

Assessment of ecological risks to wide-ranging wildlife species on the Oak Ridge Reservation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sample, B.

1995-01-01

Ecological risk assessment at CERCLA sites generally focuses on species that may be definitively associated with a contaminated area. While appropriate for sites with single, discrete areas of contamination, this approach is not adequate for sites with multiple, spatially separated contaminated areas such as the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). Wide-ranging wildlife species may travel between and use multiple contaminated sites. These species may therefore be exposed to and be at risk from contaminants from multiple locations. Use of a site (and therefore exposure and risk) by wildlife is dependent upon the availability of habitat. Availability and distribution of habitat on the ORR was determined using satellite imagery. The proportion of habitat within contaminated areas was then determined by overlaying boundaries of contaminated areas (Operable Units or OUs) on the ORR habitat map. The likelihood of contaminant exposure was estimated by comparing the habitat requirements for wildlife species to the proportion of suitable habitat within OUs. OU-specific contaminant concentrations in surface water, soil, or biota were used to estimate the magnitude of risk presented by each DU. The proportion of ORR-wide population likely to be exposed was estimated using literature-derived population density data for each endpoint. At present, due to major data gaps (i.e., lack of data for all OUs, site-specific population density or habitat use data, etc.) uncertainty associated with conclusions is high. Results of this assessment must therefore be considered to be preliminary

Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

1984-01-01

Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2015-04-01

Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogata, Hiromitsu

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

Sovereign default risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

2013-01-01

We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

Evaluating Satellite and Supercomputing Technologies for Improved Coastal Ecosystem Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

McCarthy, Matthew James

Water quality and wetlands represent two vital elements of a healthy coastal ecosystem. Both experienced substantial declines in the U.S. during the 20th century. Overall coastal wetland cover decreased over 50% in the 20th century due to coastal development and water pollution. Management and legislative efforts have successfully addressed some of the problems and threats, but recent research indicates that the diffuse impacts of climate change and non-point source pollution may be the primary drivers of current and future water-quality and wetland stress. In order to respond to these pervasive threats, traditional management approaches need to adopt modern technological tools for more synoptic, frequent and fine-scale monitoring and assessment. In this dissertation, I explored some of the applications possible with new, commercial satellite imagery to better assess the status of coastal ecosystems. Large-scale land-cover change influences the quality of adjacent coastal water. Satellite imagery has been used to derive land-cover maps since the 1960's. It provides multiple data points with which to evaluate the effects of land-cover change on water quality. The objective of the first chapter of this research was to determine how 40 years of land-cover change in the Tampa Bay watershed (6,500 km2) may have affected turbidity and chlorophyll concentration - two proxies for coastal water quality. Land cover classes were evaluated along with precipitation and wind stress as explanatory variables. Results varied between analyses for the entire estuary and those of segments within the bay. Changes in developed land percent cover best explained the turbidity and chlorophyll-concentration time series for the entire bay (R2 > 0.75, p Ocean-color satellite imagery was used to derive proxies for coastal water with near-daily satellite observations since 2000. The goal of chapter two was to identify drivers of turbidity variability for 11 National Estuary Program water bodies

A Tuned Single Parameter for Representing Conjunction Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Plakaloic, D.; Hejduk, M. D.; Frigm, R. C.; Newman, L. K.

2011-01-01

Satellite conjunction assessment risk analysis is a subjective enterprise that can benefit from quantitative aids and, to this end, NASA/GSFC has developed a fuzzy logic construct - called the F-value - to attempt to provide a statement of conjunction risk that amalgamates multiple indices and yields a more stable intra-event assessment. This construct has now sustained an extended tuning procedure against heuristic analyst assessment of event risk. The tuning effort has resulted in modifications to the calculation procedure and the adjustment of tuning coefficients, producing a construct with both more predictive force and a better statement of its error.

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

1996-01-01

A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

1987-06-01

Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

Concept for a Satellite-Based Advanced Air Traffic Management System : Volume 4. Operational Description and Qualitative Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

1974-02-01

The volume presents a description of how the Satellite-Based Advanced Air Traffic Management System (SAATMS) operates and a qualitative assessment of the system. The operational description includes the services, functions, and tasks performed by the...

Risk assessment for transport operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

1990-01-01

The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason Dunham

1999-06-01

Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

Assessment of space plasma effectsfor satellite applications:Working Group 2 overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Jakowski

2004-06-01

Full Text Available An important part of the tasks of Working Group 2 of the COST Action 271 «Assessment of space plasma effect for satellites applications» is the assessment of novel data sources for information about the state of ionisation of the ionosphere. This report deals with those aspects which are not represented adequately in the scientific papers in this issue. Here emphasis is given to the product aspect (data and model collections, descriptions of methods and algorithms, availability of products, expected future developments and the links between the past COST Actions 238 and 251 with the present Action 271 and with possible future cooperations. Working Group 2 was leading in the transionospheric propagation aspects of possible products for the International Telecommunication Union?s Radiocommunication (ITU-R Study Group 3. This report gives a short overview emphasizing future developments.

Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

Health and safety. Preliminary comparative assessment of the satellite power system (SPS) and other energy alternatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Habegger, L.J.; Gasper, J.R.; Brown, C.D.

1980-04-01

Existing data on the health and safety risks of a satellite power system and four electrical generation systems are analyzed: a combined-cycle coal power system with a low-Btu gasifier and open-cycle gas turbine, a fission power system with fuel reprocessing, a central-station, terrestrial, solar-photovoltaic power system, and a first-generation design for a fusion power system. The systems are compared on the basis of expected deaths and person-days lost per year associated with 1000 MW of average electricity generation and the number of health and safety risks that are identified as potentially significant but unquantifiable. The appendices provide more detailed information on risks, uncertainties, additional research needed, and references for the identified impacts of each system

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

Science.gov (United States)

Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

2016-01-01

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

Risk assessment research and technology assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

1991-01-01

The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

Emerging Earth Science Technologies in Disaster Risk Management: Prototype and Assessment

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Examine emerging technologies and assess their potential to dramatically change the utility and impact of satellite data for GEOSS societal benefits • Investigate...

Global assessment of ocean carbon export by combining satellite observations and food-web models

Science.gov (United States)

Siegel, D. A.; Buesseler, K. O.; Doney, S. C.; Sailley, S. F.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; Boyd, P. W.

2014-03-01

The export of organic carbon from the surface ocean by sinking particles is an important, yet highly uncertain, component of the global carbon cycle. Here we introduce a mechanistic assessment of the global ocean carbon export using satellite observations, including determinations of net primary production and the slope of the particle size spectrum, to drive a food-web model that estimates the production of sinking zooplankton feces and algal aggregates comprising the sinking particle flux at the base of the euphotic zone. The synthesis of observations and models reveals fundamentally different and ecologically consistent regional-scale patterns in export and export efficiency not found in previous global carbon export assessments. The model reproduces regional-scale particle export field observations and predicts a climatological mean global carbon export from the euphotic zone of 6 Pg C yr-1. Global export estimates show small variation (typically model parameter values. The model is also robust to the choices of the satellite data products used and enables interannual changes to be quantified. The present synthesis of observations and models provides a path for quantifying the ocean's biological pump.

Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

2013-01-01

A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

Space Weather Concerns for All-Electric Propulsion Satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Horne, Richard B.; Pitchford, David

2015-08-01

The introduction of all-electric propulsion satellites is a game changer in the quest for low-cost access to space. It also raises new questions for satellite manufacturers, operators, and the insurance industry regarding the general risks and specifically the threat of adverse space weather. The issues surrounding this new concept were discussed by research scientists and up to 30 representatives from the space industry at a special meeting at the European Space Weather Week held in November 2014. Here we report on the discussions at that meeting. We show that for a satellite undergoing electric orbit raising for 200 days the radiation dose due to electrons is equivalent to approximately 6.7 year operation at geostationary orbit or approximately half the typical design life. We also show that electrons can be injected into the slot region (8000 km) where they pose a risk of satellite internal charging. The results highlight the importance of additional radiation protection. We also discuss the benefits, the operational considerations, the other risks from the Van Allen radiation belts, the new business opportunities for space insurance, and the need for space situation awareness in medium Earth orbit where electric orbit raising takes place.

A quantitative risk assessment approach for mosquito-borne diseases: malaria re-emergence in southern France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luty Adrian JF

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Camargue region is a former malaria endemic area, where potential Anopheles vectors are still abundant. Considering the importation of Plasmodium due to the high number of imported malaria cases in France, the aim of this article was to make some predictions regarding the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue. Methods Receptivity (vectorial capacity and infectivity (vector susceptibility were inferred using an innovative probabilistic approach and considering both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. Each parameter of receptivity (human biting rate, anthropophily, length of trophogonic cycle, survival rate, length of sporogonic cycle and infectivity were estimated based on field survey, bibliographic data and expert knowledge and fitted with probability distributions taking into account the variability and the uncertainty of the estimation. Spatial and temporal variations of the parameters were determined using environmental factors derived from satellite imagery, meteorological data and entomological field data. The entomological risk (receptivity/infectivity was calculated using 10,000 different randomly selected sets of values extracted from the probability distributions. The result was mapped in the Camargue area. Finally, vulnerability (number of malaria imported cases was inferred using data collected in regional hospitals. Results The entomological risk presented large spatial, temporal and Plasmodium species-dependent variations. The sensitivity analysis showed that susceptibility, survival rate and human biting rate were the three most influential parameters for entomological risk. Assessment of vulnerability showed that among the imported cases in the region, only very few were imported in at-risk areas. Conclusion The current risk of malaria re-emergence seems negligible due to the very low number of imported Plasmodium. This model demonstrated its efficiency for mosquito-borne diseases risk

Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

1990-01-01

During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

Science.gov (United States)

Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.

1976-04-01

The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

Radiometric and geometric assessment of data from the RapidEye constellation of satellites

Science.gov (United States)

Chander, Gyanesh; Haque, Md. Obaidul; Sampath, Aparajithan; Brunn, A.; Trosset, G.; Hoffmann, D.; Roloff, S.; Thiele, M.; Anderson, C.

2013-01-01

To monitor land surface processes over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, it is critical to have coordinated observations of the Earth's surface using imagery acquired from multiple spaceborne imaging sensors. The RapidEye (RE) satellite constellation acquires high-resolution satellite images covering the entire globe within a very short period of time by sensors identical in construction and cross-calibrated to each other. To evaluate the RE high-resolution Multi-spectral Imager (MSI) sensor capabilities, a cross-comparison between the RE constellation of sensors was performed first using image statistics based on large common areas observed over pseudo-invariant calibration sites (PICS) by the sensors and, second, by comparing the on-orbit radiometric calibration temporal trending over a large number of calibration sites. For any spectral band, the individual responses measured by the five satellites of the RE constellation were found to differ B2B) alignment of the image data sets. The position accuracy was assessed by comparing the RE imagery against high-resolution aerial imagery, while the B2B characterization was performed by registering each band against every other band to ensure that the proper band alignment is provided for an image product. The B2B results indicate that the internal alignments of these five RE bands are in agreement, with bands typically registered to within 0.25 pixels of each other or better.

The evolution of violence risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2014-10-01

Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, M.M.

2007-01-01

Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

APPLICATION OF LASER SCANNING SURVEYING TO ROCK SLOPES RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Corsetti

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The methods for understanding rock instability mechanisms and for evaluating potential destructive scenarios are of great importance in risk assessment analysis dedicated to the establishment of appropriate prevention and mitigation actions. When the portion of the unstable rock mass is very large, effective actions to counteract the risks are complex and expensive. In these conditions, an optimal risk management cannot ignore procedures able to faster and accurately acquire i geometrical data for modeling the geometry of the rock walls and implementing reliable forecasting models and ii monitoring data able to describe the magnitude and the direction of deformation processes. These data contributes to the prediction of the behavior of a landslide if the measurements are acquired frequently and reliable numerical models can be implemented. Innovative geomatic techniques, based on GPS, Terrestrial Laser Scanning Surveying (TLS, automated total station and satellite and ground SAR Interferometry, have been recently applied to define the geometry and monitoring the displacements of unstable slopes. Among these, TLS is mainly adopted to generate detailed 3D models useful to reconstruct rock wall geometry by contributing to the estimation of geo-mechanical parameters, that is orientation, persistence and apparent spacing of rock discontinuities. Two examples of applications of TLS technique to the analysis of a large front in a quarry and of a rock shoulder of a dam are presented.

Potential markets for advanced satellite communications

Science.gov (United States)

Adamson, Steven; Roberts, David; Schubert, Leroy; Smith, Brian; Sogegian, Robert; Walters, Daniel

1993-09-01

This report identifies trends in the volume and type of traffic offered to the U.S. domestic communications infrastructure and extrapolates these trends through the year 2011. To describe how telecommunications service providers are adapting to the identified trends, this report assesses the status, plans, and capacity of the domestic communications infrastructure. Cable, satellite, and radio components of the infrastructure are examined separately. The report also assesses the following major applications making use of the infrastructure: (1) Broadband services, including Broadband Integrated Services Digital Network (BISDN), Switched Multimegabit Data Service (SMDS), and frame relay; (2) mobile services, including voice, location, and paging; (3) Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT), including mesh VSAT; and (4) Direct Broadcast Satellite (DBS) for audio and video. The report associates satellite implementation of specific applications with market segments appropriate to their features and capabilities. The volume and dollar value of these market segments are estimated. For the satellite applications able to address the needs of significant market segments, the report also examines the potential of each satellite-based application to capture business from alternative technologies.

Potential markets for advanced satellite communications

Science.gov (United States)

Adamson, Steven; Roberts, David; Schubert, Leroy; Smith, Brian; Sogegian, Robert; Walters, Daniel

1993-01-01

This report identifies trends in the volume and type of traffic offered to the U.S. domestic communications infrastructure and extrapolates these trends through the year 2011. To describe how telecommunications service providers are adapting to the identified trends, this report assesses the status, plans, and capacity of the domestic communications infrastructure. Cable, satellite, and radio components of the infrastructure are examined separately. The report also assesses the following major applications making use of the infrastructure: (1) Broadband services, including Broadband Integrated Services Digital Network (BISDN), Switched Multimegabit Data Service (SMDS), and frame relay; (2) mobile services, including voice, location, and paging; (3) Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT), including mesh VSAT; and (4) Direct Broadcast Satellite (DBS) for audio and video. The report associates satellite implementation of specific applications with market segments appropriate to their features and capabilities. The volume and dollar value of these market segments are estimated. For the satellite applications able to address the needs of significant market segments, the report also examines the potential of each satellite-based application to capture business from alternative technologies.

Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

2006-01-01

Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marek Burda

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

2013-12-01

Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

2009-01-01

Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

Science.gov (United States)

Ebner, G.

2009-04-01

Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

1994-01-01

The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

Risk assessment and nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bodansky, D.

1982-01-01

The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

Risk assessment handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

1990-09-01

The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

2001-01-01

the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

Feasibility Study of Land Cover Classification Based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index for Landslide Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thilanki Dahigamuwa

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Unfavorable land cover leads to excessive damage from landslides and other natural hazards, whereas the presence of vegetation is expected to mitigate rainfall-induced landslide potential. Hence, unexpected and rapid changes in land cover due to deforestation would be detrimental in landslide-prone areas. Also, vegetation cover is subject to phenological variations and therefore, timely classification of land cover is an essential step in effective evaluation of landslide hazard potential. The work presented here investigates methods that can be used for land cover classification based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, derived from up-to-date satellite images, and the feasibility of application in landslide risk prediction. A major benefit of this method would be the eventual ability to employ NDVI as a stand-alone parameter for accurate assessment of the impact of land cover in landslide hazard evaluation. An added benefit would be the timely detection of undesirable practices such as deforestation using satellite imagery. A landslide-prone region in Oregon, USA is used as a model for the application of the classification method. Five selected classification techniques—k-nearest neighbor, Gaussian support vector machine (GSVM, artificial neural network, decision tree and quadratic discriminant analysis support the viability of the NDVI-based land cover classification. Finally, its application in landslide risk evaluation is demonstrated.

Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2013-01-01

Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

Satellite Data and Machine Learning for Weather Risk Management and Food Security.

Science.gov (United States)

Biffis, Enrico; Chavez, Erik

2017-08-01

The increase in frequency and severity of extreme weather events poses challenges for the agricultural sector in developing economies and for food security globally. In this article, we demonstrate how machine learning can be used to mine satellite data and identify pixel-level optimal weather indices that can be used to inform the design of risk transfers and the quantification of the benefits of resilient production technology adoption. We implement the model to study maize production in Mozambique, and show how the approach can be used to produce countrywide risk profiles resulting from the aggregation of local, heterogeneous exposures to rainfall precipitation and excess temperature. We then develop a framework to quantify the economic gains from technology adoption by using insurance costs as the relevant metric, where insurance is broadly understood as the transfer of weather-driven crop losses to a dedicated facility. We consider the case of irrigation in detail, estimating a reduction in insurance costs of at least 30%, which is robust to different configurations of the model. The approach offers a robust framework to understand the costs versus benefits of investment in irrigation infrastructure, but could clearly be used to explore in detail the benefits of more advanced input packages, allowing, for example, for different crop varieties, sowing dates, or fertilizers. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

Science.gov (United States)

The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2000-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)

Trajectory Design Enhancements to Mitigate Risk for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS)

Science.gov (United States)

Dichmann, Donald; Parker, Joel; Nickel, Craig; Lutz, Stephen

2016-01-01

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will employ a highly eccentric Earth orbit, in 2:1 lunar resonance, which will be reached with a lunar flyby preceded by 3.5 phasing loops. The TESS mission has limited propellant and several constraints on the science orbit and on the phasing loops. Based on analysis and simulation, we have designed the phasing loops to reduce delta-V (DV) and to mitigate risk due to maneuver execution errors. We have automated the trajectory design process and use distributed processing to generate and optimal nominal trajectories; to check constraint satisfaction; and finally to model the effects of maneuver errors to identify trajectories that best meet the mission requirements.

Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

2009-01-01

modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

1991-09-01

A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

Nuclear Power Plant environment`s surveillance by satellite remote sensing and in-situ monitoring data

Science.gov (United States)

Zoran, Maria

The main environmental issues affecting the broad acceptability of nuclear power plant are the emission of radioactive materials, the generation of radioactive waste, and the potential for nuclear accidents. All nuclear fission reactors, regardless of design, location, operator or regulator, have the potential to undergo catastrophic accidents involving loss of control of the reactor core, failure of safety systems and subsequent widespread fallout of hazardous fission products. Risk is the mathematical product of probability and consequences, so lowprobability and high-consequence accidents, by definition, have a high risk. NPP environment surveillance is a very important task in frame of risk assessment. Satellite remote sensing data had been applied for dosimeter levels first time for Chernobyl NPP accident in 1986. Just for a normal functioning of a nuclear power plant, multitemporal and multispectral satellite data in complementarily with field data are very useful tools for NPP environment surveillance and risk assessment. Satellite remote sensing is used as an important technology to help environmental research to support research analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics of environmental features nearby nuclear facilities. Digital processing techniques applied to several LANDSAT, MODIS and QuickBird data in synergy with in-situ data are used to assess the extent and magnitude of radiation and non-radiation effects on the water, near field soil, vegetation and air. As a test case the methodology was applied for for Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Cernavoda, Romania. Thermal discharge from nuclear reactors cooling is dissipated as waste heat in Danube-Black -Sea Canal and Danube River. Water temperatures captured in thermal IR imagery are correlated with meteorological parameters. If during the winter thermal plume is localized to an area of a few km of NPP, the temperature difference between the plume and non-plume areas being about 1.5 oC, during summer and fall , is

Dynamic Assessment of Soil Erosion Risk Using Landsat TM and HJ Satellite Data in Danjiangkou Reservoir Area, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pengpeng Han

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Danjiangkou reservoir area is the main water source and the submerged area of the Middle Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project of China. Soil erosion is a factor that significantly influences the quality and transfer of water from the Danjiangkou reservoir. The objective of this study is to assess the water erosion (rill and sheet erosion risk and dynamic change trend of spatial distribution in erosion status and intensity between 2004 and 2010 in the Danjiangkou reservoir area using a multicriteria evaluation method.The multicriteria evaluation method synthesizes the vegetation fraction cover, slope gradient, and land use. Based on the rules and erosion risk assessment results of the study area in 2004 and 2010, the research obtained the conservation priority map. This study result shows an improvement in erosion status of the study area, the eroded area decreased from 32.1% in 2004 to 25.43% in 2010. The unchanged regions dominated the study area and that the total area of improvement grade erosion was larger than that of deterioration grade erosion. The severe, more severe, and extremely severe areas decreased by 4.71%, 2.28%, and 0.61% of the total study area, respectively. The percentages of regions where erosion grade transformed from extremely severe to slight, light and moderate were 0.18%, 0.02%, and 0.30%, respectively. However, a deteriorated region with a 2,897.60 km2 area was still observed. This area cannot be ignored in the determination of a general governance scheme. The top two conservation priority levels cover almost all regions with severe erosion and prominent increase in erosion risk, accounting for 7.31% of the study area. The study results can assist government agencies in decision making for determining erosion control areas, starting regulation projects, and making soil conservation measures.

Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

CERN Document Server

Heimsch, Laura

2016-01-01

The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

2001-01-01

Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

Site remediation guided by risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

2002-01-01

'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

2006-01-01

Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

Polar bears from space: Assessing satellite imagery as a tool to track Arctic wildlife

Science.gov (United States)

Stapleton, Seth P.; LaRue, Michelle A.; Lecomte, Nicolas; Atkinson, Stephen N.; Garshelis, David L.; Porter, Claire; Atwood, Todd C.

2014-01-01

Development of efficient techniques for monitoring wildlife is a priority in the Arctic, where the impacts of climate change are acute and remoteness and logistical constraints hinder access. We evaluated high resolution satellite imagery as a tool to track the distribution and abundance of polar bears. We examined satellite images of a small island in Foxe Basin, Canada, occupied by a high density of bears during the summer ice-free season. Bears were distinguished from other light-colored spots by comparing images collected on different dates. A sample of ground-truthed points demonstrated that we accurately classified bears. Independent observers reviewed images and a population estimate was obtained using mark- recapture models. This estimate (N: 94; 95% Confidence Interval: 92-105) was remarkably similar to an abundance estimate derived from a line transect aerial survey conducted a few days earlier (N: 102; 95% CI: 69-152). Our findings suggest that satellite imagery is a promising tool for monitoring polar bears on land, with implications for use with other Arctic wildlife. Large scale applications may require development of automated detection processes to expedite review and analysis. Future research should assess the utility of multi-spectral imagery and examine sites with different environmental characteristics.

Polar bears from space: assessing satellite imagery as a tool to track Arctic wildlife.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seth Stapleton

Full Text Available Development of efficient techniques for monitoring wildlife is a priority in the Arctic, where the impacts of climate change are acute and remoteness and logistical constraints hinder access. We evaluated high resolution satellite imagery as a tool to track the distribution and abundance of polar bears. We examined satellite images of a small island in Foxe Basin, Canada, occupied by a high density of bears during the summer ice-free season. Bears were distinguished from other light-colored spots by comparing images collected on different dates. A sample of ground-truthed points demonstrated that we accurately classified bears. Independent observers reviewed images and a population estimate was obtained using mark-recapture models. This estimate (N: 94; 95% Confidence Interval: 92-105 was remarkably similar to an abundance estimate derived from a line transect aerial survey conducted a few days earlier (N: 102; 95% CI: 69-152. Our findings suggest that satellite imagery is a promising tool for monitoring polar bears on land, with implications for use with other Arctic wildlife. Large scale applications may require development of automated detection processes to expedite review and analysis. Future research should assess the utility of multi-spectral imagery and examine sites with different environmental characteristics.

Polar bears from space: assessing satellite imagery as a tool to track Arctic wildlife.

Science.gov (United States)

Stapleton, Seth; LaRue, Michelle; Lecomte, Nicolas; Atkinson, Stephen; Garshelis, David; Porter, Claire; Atwood, Todd

2014-01-01

Development of efficient techniques for monitoring wildlife is a priority in the Arctic, where the impacts of climate change are acute and remoteness and logistical constraints hinder access. We evaluated high resolution satellite imagery as a tool to track the distribution and abundance of polar bears. We examined satellite images of a small island in Foxe Basin, Canada, occupied by a high density of bears during the summer ice-free season. Bears were distinguished from other light-colored spots by comparing images collected on different dates. A sample of ground-truthed points demonstrated that we accurately classified bears. Independent observers reviewed images and a population estimate was obtained using mark-recapture models. This estimate (N: 94; 95% Confidence Interval: 92-105) was remarkably similar to an abundance estimate derived from a line transect aerial survey conducted a few days earlier (N: 102; 95% CI: 69-152). Our findings suggest that satellite imagery is a promising tool for monitoring polar bears on land, with implications for use with other Arctic wildlife. Large scale applications may require development of automated detection processes to expedite review and analysis. Future research should assess the utility of multi-spectral imagery and examine sites with different environmental characteristics.

Assessment of the Contribution of BeiDou GEO, IGSO, and MEO Satellites to PPP in Asia—Pacific Region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qile Zhao

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In contrast to the US Global Positioning System (GPS, the Russian Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS and the European Galileo, the developing Chinese BeiDou satellite navigation system (BDS consists of not only Medium Earth Orbit (MEO, but also Geostationary Orbit (GEO as well as Inclined Geosynchronous Orbit (IGSO satellites. In this study, the Precise Point Positioning (PPP and PPP with Integer Ambiguity Resolution (IAR are obtained. The contributions of these three different types of BDS satellites to PPP in Asia-Pacific region are assessed using data from selected 20 sites over more than four weeks. By using various PPP cases with different satellite combinations, in general, the largest contribution of BDS IGSO among the three kinds of BDS satellites to the reduction of convergence time and the improvement of positioning accuracy, particularly in the east direction, is identified. These PPP cases include static BDS only solutions and static/kinematic ambiguity-float and -fixed PPP with the combination of GPS and BDS. The statistical results demonstrate that the inclusion of BDS GEO and MEO satellites can improve the observation condition and result in better PPP performance as well. When combined with GPS, the contribution of BDS to the reduction of convergence time is, however, not as significant as that of GLONASS. As far as the positioning accuracy is concerned, GLONASS improves the accuracy in vertical component more than BDS does, whereas similar improvement in horizontal component can be achieved by inclusion of BDS IGSO and MEO as GLONASS.

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Elwood, Richard W

2016-12-01

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

Science.gov (United States)

Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

2009-04-01

There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

SOVCAN STAR: An international satellite system

Science.gov (United States)

Skatchkov, Valery A.

SOVCAN STAR is a Russian-Canadian cooperative venture company formed to manufacture, test, launch and operate a Ku-band satellite system. Drawing on the more than twenty years communications satellite experience of the founding companies, the SOVCAN STAR satellites are being designed to be competitive and cost effective. They will be equipped with 24 transponders and four steerable antennas. The design allows the operators to switch individual transponders between the various antenna coverage beams. These satellites will offer a high degree of operational flexibility and performance. The SOVCAN STAR strategy is to develop a network of satellites in parallel with the growth and evolution of the traffic requirements. Such an approach minimizes the technical, schedule and program risks while at the same time significantly reduces the financial exposure. The first SOVCAN STAR satellite will be commissioned in 1996 and operated at 14 deg W. The beams will be aligned to North America and Europe offering International service between Canada, the Eastern U.S.A., Europe, Russia and the Western C.I.S. Republics. The second SOVCAN STAR satellite will be commissioned a year later and operated at 145 deg E. This satellite will cover the Western Pacific Ocean, Eastern Asia and Australasia.

Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

Science.gov (United States)

Turturro, A; Hart, R W

1987-01-01

A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ø.J. Rødseth

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-05-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

2018-01-01

Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avila, R.

2004-01-01

A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

2015-01-01

Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

Risk assessment in support of plant health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

2012-01-01

environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, W Jon

2007-03-01

Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

1996-01-01

The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

2005-01-01

The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Michiaki

2012-01-01

This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heikkeroe, Topi

2006-01-01

This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology

Satellites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burns, J.A.; Matthews, M.S.

1986-01-01

The present work is based on a conference: Natural Satellites, Colloquium 77 of the IAU, held at Cornell University from July 5 to 9, 1983. Attention is given to the background and origins of satellites, protosatellite swarms, the tectonics of icy satellites, the physical characteristics of satellite surfaces, and the interactions of planetary magnetospheres with icy satellite surfaces. Other topics include the surface composition of natural satellites, the cratering of planetary satellites, the moon, Io, and Europa. Consideration is also given to Ganymede and Callisto, the satellites of Saturn, small satellites, satellites of Uranus and Neptune, and the Pluto-Charon system

A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Segerstaahl, Boris

1989-01-01

Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iain Brown

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

Assessment of health risks of policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

2014-01-01

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

Assessment of health risks of policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

2014-09-15

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

Science.gov (United States)

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Page, D

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

Assessment of Global Cloud Datasets from Satellites: Project and Database Initiated by the GEWEX Radiation Panel

Science.gov (United States)

Stubenrauch, C. J.; Rossow, W. B.; Kinne, S.; Ackerman, S.; Cesana, G.; Chepfer, H.; Getzewich, B.; Di Girolamo, L.; Guignard, A.; Heidinger, A.;

MEMS for pico- to micro-satellites

OpenAIRE

Shea, Herbert

2009-01-01

MEMS sensors, actuators, and sub-systems can enable an important reduction in the size and mass of spacecrafts, first by replacing larger and heavier components, then by replacing entire subsystems, and finally by enabling the microfabrication of highly integrated picosats. Very small satellites (1 to 100 kg) stand to benefit the most from MEMS technologies. These small satellites are typically used for science or technology demonstration missions, with higher risk tolerance than multi-ton te...

Cloud computing assessing the risks

CERN Document Server

Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

2012-01-01

Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomson, J.R.

1994-01-01

This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea ARMEAN

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

2016-01-01

Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabre J. Coleman

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

Can we (actually) assess global risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2013-04-01

The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

2015-07-01

Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

Methodology for technical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

1983-01-01

A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra

2011-09-01

Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Landis, Wayne G

2005-01-01

...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

Remote Sensing for Risk Assessment of Via Iulia Augusta in Albenga

Science.gov (United States)

Van Meerbeek, Lore; Barazzetti, Luigi

2017-04-01

Today, the field of cultural heritage faces many challenges: cultural heritage is always at risk and heritage recording can be time-consuming and result in low accuracy. These challenges were visible during the risk assessment of Via Iulia Augusta in Albenga (Liguria, Italy). The traces of Via Iulia Augusta, a former Roman Road, connect several cultural heritage resources in Albenga's landscape. The cultural significance of these heritage sites is at risk. Threats and disturbances related to humans, development, site management, nature and climate were observed during the onsite visit. These impacts can be sudden or part of a very slow process, resulting in reduced values on cultural, social, economic and ecological level. Nature and climate (change) in Albenga impact the heritage sites the most. Water-related problems such as flooding and surface runoff have always been present in Albenga, but the amount seems to increase year by year due to global warming and is supposed to become even more critical in the future. The first step towards a risk management plan is recording and documenting these cultural heritage sites at risk. Heritage recording provides valuable documentation of the primary source, the cultural heritage itself. The produced ground plans, elevations, sections and details are the most important primary information source for every research. However, the size and complexity of the cultural heritage, the required accuracy and the time span could have a negative influence on heritage recording and documentation. This paper demonstrates the potential of remote sensing techniques for cultural heritage at risk. On site surveys with GPS, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle and photo camera gave reliable information of the heritage resources and its state of conservation. WorldView-2 Satellite images, extracted at different time periods, gave insight in the evolution of the cultural landscape in Albenga. This information resulted in several conclusions. First of all

Risk assessment future cash flows

OpenAIRE

Chachina H. G.

2012-01-01

This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

2017-01-01

Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

An Assessment of the Capabilities of the ERS Satellites' Active Microwave Instruments for Monitoring Soil Moisture Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Blyth

1997-01-01

Full Text Available The launch of the European Remote sensing Satellite (ERS-1 in July 1991 represented an important turning point in the development of Earth observation as it was the first of a series of satellites which would carry high resolution active microwave (radar sensors which could operate through the thickest cloudeover and provide continuity of data for at least a decade. This was of particular relevance to hydrological applications, such as soil moisture monitoring, which generally require frequent satellite observations to monitor changes in state. ERS-1 and its successor ERS-2 carry the active microwave instrument (AMI which operates in 3 modes (synthetic aperture radar, wind scatterometer and wave seatterometer together with the radar altimeter which may all be useful for the observation of soil moisture. This paper assesses the utility of these sensors through a comprehensive review of work in this field. Two approaches to soil moisture retrieval are identified: 1 inversion modelling, where the physical effects of vegetation and soil roughness on radar backscatter are quantified through the use of multi-frequency and/or multi-polarization sensors and 2 change detection where these effects are normalized through frequent satellite observation, the residual effects being attributed to short-term changes in soil moisture. Both approaches will be better supported by the future European Envisat-l satellite which will provide both multi-polarization SAR and low resolution products which should facilitate more frequent temporal observation.

76 FR 44891 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-27

...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our draft environmental assessment for the proposed...-2817 before coming. The petition, draft environmental assessment, and plant pest risk assessment are...

Environmental assessment for the satellite power system concept development and evaluation program: nonmicrowave health and ecological effects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

White, M R

1980-11-01

A Concept Development and Evaluation Program is being carried out for a proposed Satellite Power System (SPS). For purposes of this evaluation, a preliminary reference system has been developed. SPS, as described in the reference system, would collect solar energy on satellites in geosychronous orbit in space. The energy would be converted to microwaves and beamed to an earth-receiving antenna (rectenna). One task in the environmental part of the program is the assessment of the nonmicrowave effects on health and the environment. These effects would result from all phases of SPS development and operation. This report covers the current knowledge regarding these effects, and is based on the reference system. The assessment is summarized as to scope, methodology, impacts of terrestrial development, launch and recovery of spacecraft, space activities (including health effects of the space environment, ionizing radiation, electromagnetic exposure, spacecraft charging and environmental interactions, occupational hazards, etc.) and construction and operation of rectenna (ground receiving station).

Environmental assessment for the satellite power system concept development and evaluation program: nonmicrowave health and ecological effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, M.R.

1980-11-01

A Concept Development and Evaluation Program is being carried out for a proposed Satellite Power System (SPS). For purposes of this evaluation, a preliminary reference system has been developed. SPS, as described in the reference system, would collect solar energy on satellites in geosychronous orbit in space. The energy would be converted to microwaves and beamed to an earth-receiving antenna (rectenna). One task in the environmental part of the program is the assessment of the nonmicrowave effects on health and the environment. These effects would result from all phases of SPS development and operation. This report covers the current knowledge regarding these effects, and is based on the reference system. The assessment is summarized as to scope, methodology, impacts of terrestrial development, launch and recovery of spacecraft, space activities (including health effects of the space environment, ionizing radiation, electromagnetic exposure, spacecraft charging and environmental interactions, occupational hazards, etc.) and construction and operation of rectenna

The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

Science.gov (United States)

Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

2016-01-01

Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bari, R.A.

1985-01-01

This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

2017-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith

2001-01-01

Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in practice, decision

Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith [Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom). Centre for Environmental Research and Training; Pollard, Simon; Twigger-Ross, Clare [National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, London (United Kingdom)

2001-07-01

Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Digital mapping of corrosion risk in coastal urban areas using remote sensing and structural condition assessment: case study in cyprus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neocleous Kyriacos

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric corrosion is one of the main factors leading to performance deterioration of reinforced concrete buildings; and, hence, periodic structural condition monitoring is required to assess and repair the adverse effects of corrosion. However, this can become a cumbersome and expensive task to undertake for large populations of buildings, scattered in large urban areas. To optimize the use of available resources, appropriate tools are required for the assessment of corrosion risk of reinforced concrete construction. This paper proposes a framework for the production of digital corrosion risk maps for urban areas; Cyprus was used as a case study. This framework explored multi-temporal satellite remote sensing data from the Landsat sensors as well as corrosion risk factors derived from the results of a recently completed research project, entitled “STEELCOR”. This framework was used to develop two corrosion risk scenarios within Geographical Information Systems, and to produce corrosion risk maps for three coastal cities of Cyprus. The thematic maps indicated that, for slight corrosion damage, the distance of reinforced concrete buildings from the coast was more influential than the building age. While, for significant corrosion damage, the maps indicated that the age of RC buildings was more influential than the distance from the coast.

General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murphy, Patrick [Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General XI, Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection (Belgium)

1992-07-01

In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, Patrick

1992-01-01

In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

Use of satellite imagery to assess the trophic state of Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Zhengjun; Hong Jianming; Du Guisen

2008-01-01

The objective of this research is to explore an appropriate way of monitoring and assessing water quality by satellite remote sensing techniques in the Miyun reservoir of Beijing, China. Two scene Thematic Mapper images in May and October of 2003 were acquired and simultaneous in situ measurements, sampling and analysis were conducted. Statistical analysis indicates that satellite-based normalized ratio vegetation index (NRVI) and in situ measured water chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentration have very high correlation. Two linear regression models with high determination coefficients were constructed for NRVI and Chl-a of sample points. According to the modified trophic state index map, water quality in the western section of Miyun reservoir was consistently higher than in the eastern section during the two months tested. The trophic grade of the eastern reservoir remained mesotrophic with a tendency for eutrophication. - Remote sensing techniques can effectively monitor the change of water quality with time and space

Satellite Based Assessment of Hydroclimatic Conditions Related to Cholera in Zimbabwe.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antarpreet Jutla

Full Text Available Cholera, an infectious diarrheal disease, has been shown to be associated with large scale hydroclimatic processes. The sudden and sporadic occurrence of epidemic cholera is linked with high mortality rates, in part, due to uncertainty in timing and location of outbreaks. Improved understanding of the relationship between pathogenic abundance and climatic processes allows prediction of disease outbreak to be an achievable goal. In this study, we show association of large scale hydroclimatic processes with the cholera epidemic in Zimbabwe reported to have begun in Chitungwiza, a city in Mashonaland East province, in August, 2008.Climatic factors in the region were found to be associated with triggering cholera outbreak and are shown to be related to anomalies of temperature and precipitation, validating the hypothesis that poor conditions of sanitation, coupled with elevated temperatures, and followed by heavy rainfall can initiate outbreaks of cholera. Spatial estimation by satellite of precipitation and global gridded air temperature captured sensitivities in hydroclimatic conditions that permitted identification of the location in the region where the disease outbreak began.Satellite derived hydroclimatic processes can be used to capture environmental conditions related to epidemic cholera, as occurred in Zimbabwe, thereby providing an early warning system. Since cholera cannot be eradicated because the causative agent, Vibrio cholerae, is autochthonous to the aquatic environment, prediction of conditions favorable for its growth and estimation of risks of triggering the disease in a given population can be used to alert responders, potentially decreasing infection and saving lives.

New method for assessing risks of email

Science.gov (United States)

Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

2013-03-01

E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wolt Jeffrey D

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

Dynamic characterization of satellite assembly for responsive space applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mascarenas, David; Macknelly, David; Mullins, Josh; Wiest, Heather; Park, Gyuhae

2013-01-01

The rapid deployment of satellites for responsive space surveillance applications is hindered by the need to flight-qualify their components and the resulting mechanical assembly. Conventional methods for qualification testing of satellite components are costly and time consuming. Furthermore, full-scale vehicles must be subjected to simulated launch loads during testing, and this harsh testing environment increases the risk of damage to satellite components during qualification. This work focuses on replacing this potentially destructive testing procedure with a non-destructive structural health monitoring (SHM)-based technique while maintaining the same level of confidence in the testing procedure's ability to qualify the satellite for flight. We focus on assessing the performance of SHM techniques to replace the high-cost qualification procedure and to localize faults introduced by improper assembly. The goal of this work is to create a dual-use system that can both assist in the process of qualifying the satellite for launch, as well as provide continuous structural integrity monitoring during manufacture, transport, launch and deployment. SHM techniques were applied on a small-scale structure representative of a responsive satellite. The test structure consisted of an extruded aluminum space-frame covered with aluminum shear plates assembled using bolted joints. Multiple piezoelectric transducers were bonded to the test structure and acted as combined actuators and sensors. Piezoelectric active-sensing based techniques, including measurements of low-frequency global frequency response functions and high-frequency wave propagation techniques, were employed. Using these methods in conjunction with finite element modeling, the dynamic properties of the test structure were established and areas of potential damage could be identified and localized. A procedure for guiding the effective placement of the sensors and actuators is also outlined. (paper)

Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernhardt, J.

1993-01-01

The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

2015-01-01

Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

An Assessment of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Products Relative to Ground Observations over East Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margaret Wambui Kimani

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Accurate and consistent rainfall observations are vital for climatological studies in support of better agricultural and water management decision-making and planning. In East Africa, accurate rainfall estimation with an adequate spatial distribution is limited due to sparse rain gauge networks. Satellite rainfall products can potentially play a role in increasing the spatial coverage of rainfall estimates; however, their performance needs to be understood across space–time scales and factors relating to their errors. This study assesses the performance of seven satellite products: Tropical Applications of Meteorology using Satellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT, African Rainfall Climatology And Time series (TARCAT, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B43, Climate Prediction Centre (CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH, Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR, CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP, and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, using locally developed gridded (0.05° rainfall data for 15 years (1998–2012 over East Africa. The products’ assessments were done at monthly and yearly timescales and were remapped to the gridded rain gauge data spatial scale during the March to May (MAM and October to December (OND rainy seasons. A grid-based statistical comparison between the two datasets was used, but only pixel values located at the rainfall stations were considered for validation. Additionally, the impact of topography on the performance of the products was assessed by analyzing the pixels in areas of highest negative bias. All the products could substantially replicate rainfall patterns, but their differences are mainly based on retrieving high rainfall amounts, especially of localized orographic types. The products exhibited systematic errors, which

78 FR 15894 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-03-13

.... FDA-2012-N-1258] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for... comment period for a document entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/ [[Page... ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside the Farm...

Assessment of risk from radiation sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

1976-01-01

Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

Assessment of fracture risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

2009-01-01

Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

2005-01-01

The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi

2010-01-01

Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Montague, Peter

2004-01-01

Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.

2002-10-01

The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

2002-10-01

The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narumiya, Yoshiyuki

2015-01-01

Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

Risk assessment of safety violations for coal mines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Megan Orsulaka; Vladislav Kecojevicb; Larry Graysona; Antonio Nietoa [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States). Dept of Energy and Mineral Engineering

2010-09-15

This article presents an application of a risk assessment approach in characterising the risks associated with safety violations in underground bituminous mines in Pennsylvania using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) citation database. The MSHA database on citations provides an opportunity to assess risks in mines through scrutiny of violations of mandatory safety standards. In this study, quantitative risk assessment is performed, which allows determination of the frequency of occurrence of safety violations (through associated citations) as well as the consequences of them in terms of penalty assessments. Focus is on establishing risk matrices on citation experiences of mines, which can give early indication of emerging potentially serious problems. The resulting frequency, consequence and risk rankings present valuable tools for prioritising resource allocations, determining control strategies, and could potentially contribute to more proactive prevention of incidents and injuries.

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

2009-01-01

The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

Impact probabilities of meteoroid streams with artificial satellites: An assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foschini, L.; Cevolani, G.

1997-01-01

Impact probabilities of artificial satellites with meteoroid streams were calculated using data collected with the CNR forward scatter (FS) bistatic radar over the Bologna-Lecce baseline (about 700 km). Results show that impact probabilities are 2 times higher than other previously calculated values. Nevertheless, although catastrophic impacts are still rare even in the case of meteor storm conditions, it is expected that high meteoroid fluxes can erode satellites surfaces and weaken their external structures

Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

2010-01-01

An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brock, T.C.M.

2016-01-01

EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

Apperception and assessment of technological risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

1986-01-01

Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

Assessing the Suitability and Limitations of Satellite-based Measurements for Estimating CO, CO2, NO2 and O3 Concentrations over the Niger Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Fagbeja, M. A.; Hill, J. L.; Chatterton, T. J.; Longhurst, J. W.; Akinyede, J. O.

2011-12-01

Space-based satellite sensor technology may provide important tools in the study and assessment of national, regional and local air pollution. However, the application of optical satellite sensor observation of atmospheric trace gases, including those considered to be 'air pollutants', within the lower latitudes is limited due to prevailing climatic conditions. The lack of appropriate air pollution ground monitoring stations within the tropical belt reduces the ability to verify and calibrate space-based measurements. This paper considers the suitability of satellite remotely sensed data in estimating concentrations of atmospheric trace gases in view of the prevailing climate over the Niger Delta region. The methodological approach involved identifying suitable satellite data products and using the ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst kriging interpolation technique to generate surface concentrations from satellite column measurements. The observed results are considered in the context of the climate of the study area. Using data from January 2001 to December 2005, an assessment of the suitability of satellite sensor data to interpolate column concentrations of trace gases over the Niger Delta has been undertaken and indicates varying degrees of reliability. The level of reliability of the interpolated surfaces is predicated on the number and spatial distributions of column measurements. Accounting for the two climatic seasons in the region, the interpolation of total column concentrations of CO and CO2 from SCIAMACHY produced both reliable and unreliable results over inland parts of the region during the dry season, while mainly unreliable results are observed over the coastal parts especially during the rainy season due to inadequate column measurements. The interpolation of tropospheric measurements of NO2 and O3 from GOME and OMI respectively produced reliable results all year. This is thought to be due to the spatial distribution of available column measurements

Estimating Effects Of Rain On Ground/Satellite Communication

Science.gov (United States)

Manning, R. M.

1992-01-01

LeRC-SLAM provides static and dynamic statistical assessment of impact of attenuation by rain on communication link established between Earth terminal and geosynchronous satellite. Program designed for use in specification, design, and assessment of satellite link for any terminal location in continental United States. IBM PC version written in Microsoft QuickBASIC, and Macintosh version written in Microsoft Basic.

Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

Science.gov (United States)

Remington, Benjamin C.

2017-09-01