WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment requires

  1. 17 CFR 240.17h-2T - Risk assessment reporting requirements for brokers and dealers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... requirements for brokers and dealers. 240.17h-2T Section 240.17h-2T Commodity and Securities Exchanges... Organizations § 240.17h-2T Risk assessment reporting requirements for brokers and dealers. (a) Reporting requirements of risk assessment information required to be maintained by section 240.17h-1T. (1) Every broker...

  2. 28 CFR 105.11 - Individuals not requiring a security risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... requiring a security risk assessment. (a) Citizens and nationals of the United States. A citizen or national... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Individuals not requiring a security risk assessment. 105.11 Section 105.11 Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE (CONTINUED) CRIMINAL HISTORY...

  3. Application of Grounded Theory in Determining Required Elements for IPv6 Risk Assessment Equation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosli Athirah

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The deployment of Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6 has raised security concerns among the network administrators. Thus, in strengthening the network security, administrator requires an appropriate method to assess the possible risks that occur in their networks. Aware of the needs to calculate risk in IPv6 network, it is essential to an organization to have an equation that is flexible and consider the requirements of the network. However, the existing risk assessment equations do not consider the requirement of the network. Therefore, this paper presents the adaptation of grounded theory to search for elements that are needed to develop IPv6 risk assessment (IRA6 equation. The attack scenarios’ experiments; UDP Flooding, TCP Flooding and Multicast attacks were carried out in different network environment to show how the IPv6 risk assessment equation being used. The result shows that the IRA6 equation is more flexible to be used regardless the network sizes and easier to calculate the risk value compared to the existing risk assessment equations. Hence, network administrators can have a proper decision making and strategic planning for a robust network security.

  4. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

  5. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  6. Use of probabilistic risk assessments to define areas of possible exemption from regulatory requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, C.A.; Carlson, D.; Kolaczkowski, A.; LaChance, J.

    1988-01-01

    The Risk-Based Licensing Program (RBLP) was sponsored by the Department of Energy for the purpose of establishing and demonstrating an approach for identifying potential areas for exemption from current regulatory requirements in the licensing of nuclear power plants. Such an approach could assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for both current and future nuclear plant designs. Use of the methodology could result in streamlining the regulatory process by eliminating unnecessarily detailed reviews of portions of a plant design not important to risk. The RBLP methodology utilizes probabilistic risk assessments, (PRAs), which are required of all future applicants for nuclear power plant licenses. PRA results are used as a screening tool to determine the risk significance of various plant features which are correlated to the risk importance of regulations to identify potential areas for regulatory exemption. Additional consideration is then given to non-risk factors in the final determination of exemption candidates. The RBLP methodology was demonstrated using an existing PRA. The results of the demonstration are highlighted. 10 refs

  7. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants

  8. Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-08-01

    OAK B188 Risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants. Annual report. The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-formed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and/or confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRS) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go further by focusing on the design of new plants.

  9. ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF SOME COPPER BASED FUNGICIDES ACCORDING TO THE REQUIREMENTS OF GOOD LABORATORY PRACTICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marga GRĂDILĂ

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents data demonstrating the functionality of biological systems reconstituted with aquatic organisms developed under Good Laboratory Practice testing facility within Research - Development Institute for Plant Protection Bucharest for environmental risk assessment of four fungicides based on copper, according to Good Laboratory Practice requirements. For risk assessment, according to GLP were made the following steps: Good Laboratory Practice test facility was established, we have ensured adequate space for growth, acclimatization and testing for each test species, it was installed a complex water production instalation needed to perform tests, it was achieved control system for checking environmental conditions and have developed specific operating procedures that have been accredited according to Good Laboratory Practice.The results showed that biological systems model of the Good Laboratory Practice test facility in Research - Development Institute for Plant Protection meet the requirements of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Guidelines regarding GLP, and after testing copper-based fungicides in terms of acute toxicity Cyprinus carpio and to Daphnia magna revealed that three of them (copper oxychloride, copper hydroxide and copper sulphate showed ecological efficiency, ie low toxicity. Metallic copper based fungicides showed a higher toxicity, resulting in fish toxicity symptoms: sleep, sudden immersion, faded, weakness, swimming in spiral, lack of balance, breathing slow and cumbersome, spasms and mortality.

  10. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  11. Prioritizing Chemicals and Data Requirements for Screening-Level Exposure and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Trevor N.; Wania, Frank; Breivik, Knut; McLachlan, Michael S.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Scientists and regulatory agencies strive to identify chemicals that may cause harmful effects to humans and the environment; however, prioritization is challenging because of the large number of chemicals requiring evaluation and limited data and resources. Objectives: We aimed to prioritize chemicals for exposure and exposure potential and obtain a quantitative perspective on research needs to better address uncertainty in screening assessments. Methods: We used a multimedia mass balance model to prioritize > 12,000 organic chemicals using four far-field human exposure metrics. The propagation of variance (uncertainty) in key chemical information used as model input for calculating exposure metrics was quantified. Results: Modeled human concentrations and intake rates span approximately 17 and 15 orders of magnitude, respectively. Estimates of exposure potential using human concentrations and a unit emission rate span approximately 13 orders of magnitude, and intake fractions span 7 orders of magnitude. The actual chemical emission rate contributes the greatest variance (uncertainty) in exposure estimates. The human biotransformation half-life is the second greatest source of uncertainty in estimated concentrations. In general, biotransformation and biodegradation half-lives are greater sources of uncertainty in modeled exposure and exposure potential than chemical partition coefficients. Conclusions: Mechanistic exposure modeling is suitable for screening and prioritizing large numbers of chemicals. By including uncertainty analysis and uncertainty in chemical information in the exposure estimates, these methods can help identify and address the important sources of uncertainty in human exposure and risk assessment in a systematic manner. PMID:23008278

  12. Prioritizing chemicals and data requirements for screening-level exposure and risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnot, Jon A; Brown, Trevor N; Wania, Frank; Breivik, Knut; McLachlan, Michael S

    2012-11-01

    Scientists and regulatory agencies strive to identify chemicals that may cause harmful effects to humans and the environment; however, prioritization is challenging because of the large number of chemicals requiring evaluation and limited data and resources. We aimed to prioritize chemicals for exposure and exposure potential and obtain a quantitative perspective on research needs to better address uncertainty in screening assessments. We used a multimedia mass balance model to prioritize > 12,000 organic chemicals using four far-field human exposure metrics. The propagation of variance (uncertainty) in key chemical information used as model input for calculating exposure metrics was quantified. Modeled human concentrations and intake rates span approximately 17 and 15 orders of magnitude, respectively. Estimates of exposure potential using human concentrations and a unit emission rate span approximately 13 orders of magnitude, and intake fractions span 7 orders of magnitude. The actual chemical emission rate contributes the greatest variance (uncertainty) in exposure estimates. The human biotransformation half-life is the second greatest source of uncertainty in estimated concentrations. In general, biotransformation and biodegradation half-lives are greater sources of uncertainty in modeled exposure and exposure potential than chemical partition coefficients. Mechanistic exposure modeling is suitable for screening and prioritizing large numbers of chemicals. By including uncertainty analysis and uncertainty in chemical information in the exposure estimates, these methods can help identify and address the important sources of uncertainty in human exposure and risk assessment in a systematic manner.

  13. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  14. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  15. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  16. Execution of a self-directed risk assessment methodology to address HIPAA data security requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Johnathan

    2003-05-01

    This paper analyzes the method and training of a self directed risk assessment methodology entitled OCTAVE (Operationally Critical Threat Asset and Vulnerability Evaluation) at over 170 DOD medical treatment facilities. It focuses specifically on how OCTAVE built interdisciplinary, inter-hierarchical consensus and enhanced local capabilities to perform Health Information Assurance. The Risk Assessment Methodology was developed by the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University as part of the Defense Health Information Assurance Program (DHIAP). The basis for its success is the combination of analysis of organizational practices and technological vulnerabilities. Together, these areas address the core implications behind the HIPAA Security Rule and can be used to develop Organizational Protection Strategies and Technological Mitigation Plans. A key component of OCTAVE is the inter-disciplinary composition of the analysis team (Patient Administration, IT staff and Clinician). It is this unique composition of analysis team members, along with organizational and technical analysis of business practices, assets and threats, which enables facilities to create sound and effective security policies. The Risk Assessment is conducted in-house, and therefore the process, results and knowledge remain within the organization, helping to build consensus in an environment of differing organizational and disciplinary perspectives on Health Information Assurance.

  17. Information requirements for the probabilistic risk assessment of underground disposal of low level wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sumerling, T.J.; Thompson, B.G.J.

    1987-01-01

    The UK Department of the Environment (DoE) will perform independent post-closure safety assessment of proposals for the disposal of low-level radioactive wastes in engineered facilities in shallow ground. In this paper, the DoE assessment criteria, methodology and modelling capabilities are outlined; the general characteristics of the information required are discussed; and the specific information needs, as presently perceived, are identified. It is concluded that: most of the data that can be obtained by direct means is provided by site investigations and research now in hand, although there may be uncertainty due to sparse regional data; some parameters can only be obtained by, or with the assistance of subjective judgment; the process of data reduction is not straight forward and adequate time must be allowed for this if a comprehensive and defensible assessment is to be constructed

  18. Assessment of technical risks and R and D requirements for a magnetic confinement fusion fuel system. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeFreece, D.A.

    1983-11-01

    This report documents a specific use and results of a novel technique for assessing the technical risks associated with the hardware development of a possible future commercial fusion power plant fuel system. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications. A technical risk assessment is the quantification of this risk. This Technical Risk Assessment (TRA) methodology was applied to a deuterium-tritium fuel system for a magnetic-confinement fusion power plant. The fuel system is defined to support a generic commercial reactor with at least two viable options for each critical subsystem. Each subsystem option is defined in detail including nominal performance requirements and subsystem interfaces. Subsystem experts were canvassed to obtain values for past, present and future technical performance parameters for each of the subsystem options. These forecasts are presented as probabilities of achieving given levels of performance in specific time periods for assumed funding scenarios. Several funding scenarios were examined to discern whether performance limitations are caused by funding or technology. A computerized Fuel System simulation is described which uses these subsystem performance parameter forecasts as inputs

  19. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, Linda [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Department ' ' Radiation Protection and Health' ' , Oberschleissheim (Germany); University of Zurich, Medical Physics Group, Institute of Physics, Zurich (Switzerland); Zhang, Wei [Public Health England, Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Oxford (United Kingdom)

    2016-03-15

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated ''No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data''. Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer'', it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer''. It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and

  20. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-01-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated ''No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data''. Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer'', it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome ''all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer''. It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  1. Neutronics calculations for denatured molten salt reactors: Assessing resource requirements and proliferation-risk attributes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad, Ali; McClamrock, Edward B.; Glaser, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We study the proliferation-risk and resource attributes of denatured MSRs. • MSRs offer significantly better resource efficiency compared to light-water reactors. • Denatured single-fluid MSRs reactors offer promising non-proliferation attributes. - Abstract: Molten salt reactors (MSRs) are often advocated as a radical but worthwhile alternative to traditional reactor concepts based on solid fuels. This article builds upon the existing research into MSRs to model and simulate the operation of thorium-fueled single-fluid and two-fluid reactors. The analysis is based on neutronics calculations and focuses on denatured MSR systems. Resource utilization and basic proliferation-risk attributes are compared to those of standard light-water reactors. Depending on specific design choices, even fully denatured reactors could reduce uranium and enrichment requirements by a factor of 3–4. Overall, denatured single-fluid designs appear as the most promising candidate technology minimizing both design complexity and overall proliferation risks despite being somewhat less attractive from the perspective of resource utilization

  2. Does caries risk assessment predict the incidence of caries for special needs patients requiring general anesthesia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Juhea; Kim, Hae-Young

    2014-11-01

    The aim of this study was to correlate the caries-related variables of special needs patients to the incidence of new caries. Data for socio-demographic information and dental and general health status were obtained from 110 patients treated under general anesthesia because of their insufficient co-operation. The Cariogram program was used for risk assessment and other caries-related variables were also analyzed. Within a defined follow-up period (16.3 ± 9.5 months), 64 patients received dental examinations to assess newly developed caries. At baseline, the mean (SD) values of the DMFT (decayed, missing and filled teeth) and DT (decayed teeth) for the total patients were 9.2 (6.5) and 5.8 (5.3), respectively. During the follow-up period, new caries occurred in 48.4% of the patients and the mean value (SD) of the increased DMFT (iDMFT) was 2.1 (4.2). The patients with a higher increment of caries (iDMFT ≥3) showed significantly different caries risk profiles compared to the other patients (iDMFT dentistry. Past caries experience and inadequate oral hygiene maintenance were largely related to caries development in special needs patients.

  3. Radiological risk assessment of isotope laboratories according to the requirements of the radiation protection ordinance and the protective labour legislation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuerm, R.P.; Kuster, M.; Traub, K.

    2001-01-01

    According to the Swiss Radiation Safety Ordinance the supervising authority may require a safety report from the operator of a radioactive laboratory (Art.95) and establish the methodology of the risk analysis. Isotope laboratories of the chemical industry are supervised by Swiss accident insurance agency (SUVA). In that respect SUVA safeguards both radiation protection issues and general protection of the workers and established guide lines in order to assess conventional risks in industrial premises. In these conventional analysis the working process is analysed according to its possible detriment (death, severe invalidity, slight invalidity, injury with absence, injury without absence) and the probability of occurrence (frequent, seldom, rare, improbable, virtually impossible). According to this the risks are categorised in a matrix as 'high', 'medium' and 'low'. SUVA requested such a risk analysis for two isotope laboratories of B type in Basel in which on the one hand the hazard to the workers on the other hand to the public should be analysed and radiologically assessed. It was proposed to use a methodology established in workers safety and the insurance section. This required a comparison of risks of radiation doses in mSv to the consequences of conventional working accidents (death, invalidity) and the risk perception of the public and politicians. In this paper this risk matrix derived in discussions among the supervising body, the company management, the laboratory head and workers is described. In the opinion of the authors such a comparison between radiological and conventional risks has not been performed up to now and the results obtained here are open to discussion. (orig.) [de

  4. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  5. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  6. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  7. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  8. Bats and wind power – investigations required for risk assessment in Denmark and Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlén, Ingemar; Baagøe, Hans J.

    2013-01-01

    assessment in Denmark and Sweden We experienced an urgent need among authorities and consultancies to get clear guidelines for planning and field investigations at suggested wind parks. Certain minimum conditions must be fulfilled concerning evaluation of the project area, timing of investigations etc...... on activity and species composition in a project area also including suitable colony habitats and hunting sites within a radius of at least 2 km. Methods include automatic registration, detector listening etc. to ensure data on species presence, number of observations and facts on activity and status...

  9. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  10. Risk assessment of agricultural water requirement based on a multi-model ensemble framework, southwest of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamani, Reza; Akhond-Ali, Ali-Mohammad; Roozbahani, Abbas; Fattahi, Rouhollah

    2017-08-01

    Water shortage and climate change are the most important issues of sustainable agricultural and water resources development. Given the importance of water availability in crop production, the present study focused on risk assessment of climate change impact on agricultural water requirement in southwest of Iran, under two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) for the future period (2025-2054). A multi-model ensemble framework based on mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) method and a combined probabilistic approach Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and change factor (CF) have been used for downscaling to manage the uncertainty of outputs of 14 general circulation models (GCMs). The results showed an increasing temperature in all months and irregular changes of precipitation (either increasing or decreasing) in the future period. In addition, the results of the calculated annual net water requirement for all crops affected by climate change indicated an increase between 4 and 10 %. Furthermore, an increasing process is also expected regarding to the required water demand volume. The most and the least expected increase in the water demand volume is about 13 and 5 % for A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Considering the results and the limited water resources in the study area, it is crucial to provide water resources planning in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change. Therefore, the adaptation scenarios with the climate change related to crop pattern and water consumption should be taken into account.

  11. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  12. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  13. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  14. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-01-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants

  15. Nuclear Energy Research Initiative. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants. Annual Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ritterbusch, S.E.

    2000-08-01

    The overall goal of this research project is to support innovation in new nuclear power plant designs. This project is examining the implications, for future reactors and future safety regulation, of utilizing a new risk-informed regulatory system as a replacement for the current system. This innovation will be made possible through development of a scientific, highly risk-informed approach for the design and regulation of nuclear power plants. This approach will include the development and.lor confirmation of corresponding regulatory requirements and industry standards. The major impediment to long term competitiveness of new nuclear plants in the U.S. is the capital cost component--which may need to be reduced on the order of 35% to 40% for Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWRs) such as System 80+ and Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR). The required cost reduction for an ALWR such as AP600 or AP1000 would be expected to be less. Such reductions in capital cost will require a fundamental reevaluation of the industry standards and regulatory bases under which nuclear plants are designed and licensed. Fortunately, there is now an increasing awareness that many of the existing regulatory requirements and industry standards are not significantly contributing to safety and reliability and, therefore, are unnecessarily adding to nuclear plant costs. Not only does this degrade the economic competitiveness of nuclear energy, it results in unnecessary costs to the American electricity consumer. While addressing these concerns, this research project will be coordinated with current efforts of industry and NRC to develop risk-informed, performance-based regulations that affect the operation of the existing nuclear plants; however, this project will go farther by focusing on the design of new plants.

  16. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  17. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  18. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  19. Toxicity assessment strategies, data requirements, and risk assessment approaches to derive health based guidance values for non-relevant metabolites of plant protection products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekant, Wolfgang; Melching-Kollmuss, Stephanie; Kalberlah, Fritz

    2010-03-01

    In Europe, limits for tolerable concentrations of "non-relevant metabolites" for active ingredients (AI) of plant protection products in drinking water between 0.1 and 10 microg/L are discussed depending on the toxicological information available. "Non-relevant metabolites" are degradation products of AIs, which do not or only partially retain the targeted toxicities of AIs. For "non-relevant metabolites" without genotoxicity (to be confirmed by testing in vitro), the application of the concept of "thresholds of toxicological concern" results in a health-based drinking water limit of 4.5 microg/L even for Cramer class III compounds, using the TTC threshold of 90 microg/person/day (divided by 10 and 2). Taking into account the thresholds derived from two reproduction toxicity data bases a drinking water limit of 3.0 microg/L is proposed. Therefore, for "non-relevant metabolites" whose drinking water concentration is below 3.0 microg/L, no toxicity testing is necessary. This work develops a toxicity assessment strategy as a basis to delineate health-based limits for "non-relevant metabolites" in ground and drinking water. Toxicological testing is recommended to investigate, whether the metabolites are relevant or not, based on the hazard properties of the parent AIs, as outlined in the SANCO Guidance document. Also, genotoxicity testing of the water metabolites is clearly recommended. In this publication, tiered testing strategies are proposed for non-relevant metabolites, when drinking water concentrations >3.0 microg/L will occur. Conclusions based on structure-activity relationships and the detailed toxicity database on the parent AI should be included. When testing in animals is required for risk assessment, key aspects are studies along OECD-testing guidelines with "enhanced" study designs addressing additional endpoints such as reproductive toxicity and a developmental screening test to derive health-based tolerable drinking water limits with a limited number

  20. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  1. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  2. Assessment of the potential human health risks from exposure to complex substances in accordance with REACH requirements. "White spirit" as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, Richard H; Tibaldi, Rosalie; Adenuga, Moyinoluwa D; Carrillo, Juan-Carlos; Margary, Alison

    2018-02-01

    The European chemical control regulation (REACH) requires that data on physical/chemical, toxicological and environmental hazards be compiled. Additionally, REACH requires formal assessments to ensure that substances can be safely used for their intended purposes. For health hazard assessments, reference values (Derived No Effect levels, DNELs) are calculated from toxicology data and compared to estimated exposure levels. If the ratio of the predicted exposure level to the DNEL, i.e. the Risk Characterization Ratio (RCR), is less than 1, the risk is considered controlled; otherwise, additional Risk Management Measures (RMM) must be applied. These requirements pose particular challenges for complex substances. Herein, "white spirit", a complex hydrocarbon solvent, is used as an example to illustrate how these procedures were applied. Hydrocarbon solvents were divided into categories of similar substances. Representative substances were identified for DNEL determinations. Adjustment factors were applied to the no effect levels to calculate the DNELs. Exposure assessments utilized a standardized set of generic exposure scenarios (GES) which incorporated exposure predictions for solvent handling activities. Computer-based tools were developed to automate RCR calculations and identify appropriate RMMs, allowing consistent communications to users via safety data sheets. Copyright © 2017 ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  4. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  5. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  6. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  7. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  8. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  9. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  10. Accounting for Epistemic Uncertainty in Mission Supportability Assessment: A Necessary Step in Understanding Risk and Logistics Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, Andrew; De Weck, Olivier L.; Stromgren, Chel; Goodliff, Kandyce; Cirillo, William

    2017-01-01

    Future crewed missions to Mars present a maintenance logistics challenge that is unprecedented in human spaceflight. Mission endurance – defined as the time between resupply opportunities – will be significantly longer than previous missions, and therefore logistics planning horizons are longer and the impact of uncertainty is magnified. Maintenance logistics forecasting typically assumes that component failure rates are deterministically known and uses them to represent aleatory uncertainty, or uncertainty that is inherent to the process being examined. However, failure rates cannot be directly measured; rather, they are estimated based on similarity to other components or statistical analysis of observed failures. As a result, epistemic uncertainty – that is, uncertainty in knowledge of the process – exists in failure rate estimates that must be accounted for. Analyses that neglect epistemic uncertainty tend to significantly underestimate risk. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced via operational experience; for example, the International Space Station (ISS) failure rate estimates are refined using a Bayesian update process. However, design changes may re-introduce epistemic uncertainty. Thus, there is a tradeoff between changing a design to reduce failure rates and operating a fixed design to reduce uncertainty. This paper examines the impact of epistemic uncertainty on maintenance logistics requirements for future Mars missions, using data from the ISS Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLS) as a baseline for a case study. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the impact of variations in failure rate estimates and epistemic uncertainty on spares mass. The results of these analyses and their implications for future system design and mission planning are discussed.

  11. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  13. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  14. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  15. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  16. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  17. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  18. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  19. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  20. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  1. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  2. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  3. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  4. Review of light water reactor regulatory requirements: Assessment of selected regulatory requirements that may have marginal importance to risk: Postaccident sampling system, Turbine missiles, Combustible gas control, Charcoal filters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, W.B.; Jamison, J.D.; Stoetzel, G.A.; Tabatabai, A.S.; Vo, T.V.

    1987-05-01

    In a study commissioned by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) evaluated the costs and benefits of modifying regulatory requirements in the areas of the postaccident sampling system, turbine rotor design reviews and inspections, combustible gas control for inerted Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) containments, and impregnated charcoal filters in certain plant ventilation systems. The basic framework for the analyses was that presented in the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines (NUREG/BR-0058) and in the Handbook for Value-Impact Assessment (NUREG/CR-3568). The effects of selected modifications to regulations were evaluated in terms of such factors as public risk and costs to industry and NRC. The results indicate that potential modifications of the regulatory requirements in three of the four areas would have little impact on public risk. In the fourth area, impregnated charcoal filters in building ventilation systems do appear to limit risks to the public and plant staff. Revisions in the severe accident source term assumptions, however, may reduce the theoretical value of charcoal filters. The cost analysis indicated that substantial savings in operating costs may be realized by changing the interval of turbine rotor inspections. Small to moderate operating cost savings may be realized through postulated modifications to the postaccident sampling system requirements and to the requirements for combustible gas control in inerted BWR containments. Finally, the use of impregnated charcoal filters in ventilation systems appears to be the most cost-effective method of reducing radioiodine concentrations

  5. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  6. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  7. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  8. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  9. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  10. Assessing Requirements Quality through Requirements Coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, Ajitha; Heimdahl, Mats; Woodham, Kurt

    2008-01-01

    In model-based development, the development effort is centered around a formal description of the proposed software system the model. This model is derived from some high-level requirements describing the expected behavior of the software. For validation and verification purposes, this model can then be subjected to various types of analysis, for example, completeness and consistency analysis [6], model checking [3], theorem proving [1], and test-case generation [4, 7]. This development paradigm is making rapid inroads in certain industries, e.g., automotive, avionics, space applications, and medical technology. This shift towards model-based development naturally leads to changes in the verification and validation (V&V) process. The model validation problem determining that the model accurately captures the customer's high-level requirements has received little attention and the sufficiency of the validation activities has been largely determined through ad-hoc methods. Since the model serves as the central artifact, its correctness with respect to the users needs is absolutely crucial. In our investigation, we attempt to answer the following two questions with respect to validation (1) Are the requirements sufficiently defined for the system? and (2) How well does the model implement the behaviors specified by the requirements? The second question can be addressed using formal verification. Nevertheless, the size and complexity of many industrial systems make formal verification infeasible even if we have a formal model and formalized requirements. Thus, presently, there is no objective way of answering these two questions. To this end, we propose an approach based on testing that, when given a set of formal requirements, explores the relationship between requirements-based structural test-adequacy coverage and model-based structural test-adequacy coverage. The proposed technique uses requirements coverage metrics defined in [9] on formal high-level software

  11. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  12. Nuclear energy research initiative, an overview of the cooperative program for the risk-informed assessment of regulatory and design requirements for future nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, Stanley E.

    2000-01-01

    EPRI sstudies have shown that nuclear plant capital costs will have to decrease by about 35% to 40% to be competitive with fossil-generated electricity in the Unite States. Also, the ''first concrete'' to fuel load construction schedule will have to be decreased to less than 40 months. Therefore, the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) initiate the Nuclear Energy Research Initiative (NERI) and ABB CENP proposed a cooperative program with Sandia National Laboratory (SNL) and Duke Engineering and Services (DE and S) to begin an innovative research effort to drastically cut the cost of new nuclear power plant construction for the U. S. de-regulated market place. This program was approved by the DOE through three separate but coordinated ''cooperative agreements.'' They are the ''Risk-Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants'' (Risk-Informed NPP), the ''Smart Nuclear Power Plant Program'' (Smart-NPP), and ''Design, Procure, Construct, Install and Test'' (DPCIT) Program. DOE funded the three cooperative agreements at a level of $2.6 million for the first year of the program. Funding for the complete program is durrently at a level $6.9 million, however, ABB CENP and all partners anticipate that the scope of the NERI program will be increased as a result of the overall importance of NERI to the U. S. Government. The Risk-Informed NPP program, which is aimed at revising costly regularory and design requirements without reducing overall plant safety, has two basic tasks: ''development of Risk-Informed Methods'' and ''strengthening the Reliability Database.'' The overall objective of the first task is to develop a scientific, risk-informed approach for identifying and simplifying deterministic industry standards, regulatory requirements, and safety systems that do not significantly contribute to nuclear power plant reliability and safety. The second basic task is to develop a means for strengthening the reliability database

  13. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  14. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  15. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  16. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  17. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  18. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  19. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  20. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  1. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  2. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  3. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  4. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  5. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  6. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  7. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  8. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  9. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  10. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  11. Better Assessments Require Better Assessment Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiggins, Rick

    2018-01-01

    Stiggins says that, to build better assessment systems, educators and education leaders need more opportunities to learn the basic principles of sound assessment practice. He lays out what he views as the fundamental elements of assessment literacy.

  12. System for Capturing/Storage/Retrieval/Sharing of Toxicological Information Required for Rapid Assessment of Risks Posed By Release of CBRN Materials in the Environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, M. L.; Ritondo, M.; Earp Singer, L.; Rogers, J. V.; Price, J. A.; Fleming, E. J.; Chappie, D.; McGonigle, D.; Nichols, T. L.; Sonich-Mullin, C.

    2007-01-01

    The Threat and Consequence Assessment Division (TCAD) of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) National Homeland Security Research Center (NHSRC) is developing methodology for performing rapid risk assessments needed for incident management, cleanup, and mitigation of hazards in the aftermath of a terrorist event. TCAD, working with the Department of Defense's Chemical and Biological Defense Information Analysis Center (CBIAC, operated by Battelle) has developed SERRA - Support for Environmental Rapid Risk Assessment. This paper describes the methodology utilized to formulate SERRA, presents current contents of the SERRA database (information derived from assessments of over 3,000 publications selected from 10,000 citations), and describes SERRA implementation. The paper also discusses how an Internet-accessible version of the SERRA database could be utilized by a country or countries to prepare for and respond to the intentional release of chemical, biological or radiological materials.(author)

  13. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  14. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  15. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  16. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  17. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  18. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  19. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  20. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  1. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  2. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  3. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  4. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  5. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  6. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    . and industrial activities that may pose threats to ecosystems, flora, fauna and humans. This model-concept gives a three-phase assessment where the assessor tries to determine whether a specific place may be subject to assessment, to characterize the level of risk and to confirm or refute the findings of the first phase, collecting information and corrective measures, or to establish basic requirements for environment protection. Risk assessment methodology - American concept: The third methodological approach to environmental risk assessment is developed by the U.S. Agency for Environmental Protection, 'U.S. EPA'. This model primarily involves the implementation of environmental risk assessment under the conditions of anthropogenic impact on environment, without aiming at solving problems of natural environmental risks, although this methodology can be applied in this environment segment as well. The methodology gives a clear distinction between a scientific (phase of estimation and a non-scientific (planning part of assessment. The phases of estimation given by this model are: problem formulation, risk analysis and risk characterization. Conclusion: Concepts and methodologies of all three models-concepts of assessment are mostly reduced to a common goal: how to reduce existing or avoid potential risks. However, it should be noted that the implementation of appropriate management and ecological risk assessment does not guarantee that risks will be avoided or that the implementation of these processes will be successful.

  8. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  9. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  10. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  11. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  12. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  13. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  14. Toxicologic Pathology: The Basic Building Block of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Human health risk assessment is a critical factor in many risk management decisions. Evaluation of human health risk requires research the provides information that appropriately characterizes potential hazards from exposure. Pathology endpoints are the central response around ...

  15. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  16. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  17. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  18. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  19. Risk based limits for Operational Safety Requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cappucci, A.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    OSR limits are designed to protect the assumptions made in the facility safety analysis in order to preserve the safety envelope during facility operation. Normally, limits are set based on ''worst case conditions'' without regard to the likelihood (frequency) of a credible event occurring. In special cases where the accident analyses are based on ''time at risk'' arguments, it may be desirable to control the time at which the facility is at risk. A methodology has been developed to use OSR limits to control the source terms and the times these source terms would be available, thus controlling the acceptable risk to a nuclear process facility. The methodology defines a new term ''gram-days''. This term represents the area under a source term (inventory) vs time curve which represents the risk to the facility. Using the concept of gram-days (normalized to one year) allows the use of an accounting scheme to control the risk under the inventory vs time curve. The methodology results in at least three OSR limits: (1) control of the maximum inventory or source term, (2) control of the maximum gram-days for the period based on a source term weighted average, and (3) control of the maximum gram-days at the individual source term levels. Basing OSR limits on risk based safety analysis is feasible, and a basis for development of risk based limits is defensible. However, monitoring inventories and the frequencies required to maintain facility operation within the safety envelope may be complex and time consuming

  20. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  1. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  5. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  6. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  7. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    two-page assessment representing the state of knowledge/evidence of that risk, available risk mitigations, traceability to the Space Flight Human System Standards (SFHSS) and program requirements, and future work required. These data then can drive coordinated budgets across the Human Research Program, the International Space Station, Crew Health and Safety and Advanced Exploration System budgets to provide the most economical and timely mitigations. The risk assessments were completed for the 6 DRMs and serve as the baseline for which subsequent research and technology development and crew health care portfolios can be assessed. The HSRB reviews each risk at least annually or when new evidence/information is available that adds to the body of evidence. The current status of each risk can be reported to program management for operations, budget reviews and general oversight of the human system risk management program.

  8. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  9. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  10. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  11. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  12. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  13. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  14. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  15. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  16. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  17. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  18. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  19. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  20. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  1. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  2. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  3. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  4. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  5. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  6. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization

    OpenAIRE

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.; Etalle, Sandro; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Niedrite, Laila; Strazdina, Renate; Wangler, Benkt

    2011-01-01

    Companies are under pressure to be in control of their assets but at the same time they must operate as efficiently as possible. This means that they aim to implement “good-enough security‿ but need to be able to justify their security investment plans. In this paper, we present a Risk-Based Requirements Prioritization method (RiskREP) that extends misuse case-based methods with IT architecture based risk assessment and countermeasure definition and prioritization. Countermeasure prioritizati...

  7. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  8. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  9. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  10. 12 CFR 932.3 - Risk-based capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... credit risk capital requirement, its market risk capital requirement, and its operations risk capital... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital requirement. 932.3 Section 932.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND...

  11. US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

  12. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  13. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  14. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  15. 12 CFR 932.4 - Credit risk capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit risk capital requirement. 932.4 Section... CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.4 Credit risk capital requirement. (a) General requirement. Each Bank's credit risk capital requirement shall be equal to the sum of the Bank's...

  16. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  17. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  19. Risk assessment of integrated electronic health records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjornsson, Bjarni Thor; Sigurdardottir, Gudlaug; Stefansson, Stefan Orri

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes the security concerns related to Electronic Health Records (EHR) both in registration of data and integration of systems. A description of the current state of EHR systems in Iceland is provided, along with the Ministry of Health's future vision and plans. New legislation provides the opportunity for increased integration of EHRs and further collaboration between institutions. Integration of systems, along with greater availability and access to EHR data, requires increased security awareness since additional risks are introduced. The paper describes the core principles of information security as it applies to EHR systems and data. The concepts of confidentiality, integrity, availability, accountability and traceability are introduced and described. The paper discusses the legal requirements and importance of performing risk assessment for EHR data. Risk assessment methodology according to the ISO/IEC 27001 information security standard is described with examples on how it is applied to EHR systems.

  20. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  2. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  3. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  4. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  5. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    for various types of equipment and piping and for operations performed by operators, and was obtained through sensitivity analysis, such as the influence of change in the maintenance periods of the occurrence frequency. This information might be of use for operation management. On the other hand, in order to have grasp of the risk profile at a reprocessing plant and in order for us to make good use of the risk information, it is also necessary to conduct risk assessments for incidents other than major accidents. Since it is appropriate to use a Graded Approach to assess the risks of such a large number of incidents effectively and efficiently, a simplified method, called ''improved risk index method'' was developed. It based on the Risk Index Method recommended by U.S. NRC. The Risk Index Method is simple and is appropriate for fuel cycle facilities where a wide variety of accidents may occur, but it is characterized by the fact that it requires engineering judgments by analysts when assessing the occurrence frequency, and the common components between the safety measures (the subordinacy) are difficult to clarify. In order to solve the problems inherent in the Risk Index Method, quantification, flexibility and traceability have been improved while maintaining its advantages. Currently, risk assessments for a wide variety of incidents and accidents are being conducted using the above mentioned methods and their results will be used for the improvement of operation management. Furthermore, risk assessments for external incidents (earthquakes, etc.) are being planned

  6. 12 CFR 932.6 - Operations risk capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... operations risk capital requirement shall at all times equal 30 percent of the sum of the Bank's credit risk... percent but no less than 10 percent of the sum of the Bank's credit risk capital requirement and market... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Operations risk capital requirement. 932.6...

  7. Development of a concept for the environmental risk assessment of biocidal products for authorization purposes. (BIOEXPO) Part 1: Framework and data requirements for environmental compartments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dokkum, H.P. van; Scholten, M.C.T.; Bakker, D.J.; Jak, R.G.; Bowmer, C.T.

    1998-01-01

    The BIOEXPO project is focussed on test data, required for the authorization of biocidal products. The draft EC Biocidal Products Directive distinguishes between a common core data set (Annex II) and an additional data set, with specific data requirements for biocidal product types (Annex III). The

  8. Risks assessment and comparison: Interest and feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulon, Rene

    1989-01-01

    Comparative risk assessment and risk management have become a real discipline, requiring a scientific approach. This is due to the increasing need to take account of risks in the decision processes together with other economic, social or political considerations. Although the notion of risk is generally associated with emergency situations, it seems necessary to pay more attention to those situations which are considered as normal situations but could be responsible for a significant part of the observed health effects. In this context, a research programme entitled Programme Grand Delta has been developed at a regional level: its aim is to provide a clear and simple representation of the risks to which the population living in this area is exposed. (author)

  9. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  10. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  11. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  12. Preliminary risk assessments of the small HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Everline, C.J.; Bellis, E.A.

    1985-05-01

    Preliminary investment and safety risk assessments were performed for a preconceptual design of a four-module 250-MW(t) side-by-side steel-vessel pebble bed HTGR plant. Broad event spectra were analyzed involving component damage resulting in unscheduled plant outages and fission product releases resulting in offsite doses. The preliminary assessment indicates at this stage of the design that two categories of events govern the investment risk envelope: primary coolant leaks which release some circulating and plate-out activity that contaminates the confinement and turbogenerator damage which involves extensive turbine blade failure. Primary coolant leaks are important contributors because associated cleanup and decontamination requirements result in longer outages that arise from other events with comparable frequencies. Turbogenerator damage is the salient low-frequency investment risk accident due to the relatively long outages being experienced in the industry. Thermal transients are unimportant investment risk contributors because pressurized core heatups cause little damage, and depressurized core heatups occur at negligible frequencies relative to the forced outage goal. These preliminary results demonstrate investment and safety risk goal compliance at this stage in the design process. Studies are continuing in order to provide valuable insights into risk-significant events to assure a balanced approach to meeting user and regulatory requirements

  13. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  14. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  15. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  16. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    , the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  17. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  18. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  19. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  20. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  1. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  4. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  5. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  6. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  7. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  8. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  9. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2017-10-19

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  10. Revision of the AESJ Standard for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Updating requirements based on the lessons learned from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP Accidents (3). Fragility evaluation and outline of the updated points

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamaguchi, Akira; Nakamura, Susumu; Mihara, Yoshinori

    2014-01-01

    Lessons learned from Great East Japan earthquake and other new findings had been accumulated on the fragility evaluation of buildings and components. And also new analysis and evaluation method had been proposed with the advancement of recent analysis and evaluation technology. These were reflected in revision of the AESJ Standard for Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). Scope of the fragility evaluation were extended to all equipment on the site, severe accident management equipment including portable equipment and earthquake concomitant incident (such as tsunami) countermeasure equipment. This article described outlines of updating points of the fragility evaluation of the AESJ Standard for Seismic PRA; (1) requirements for seismic induced other risk evaluations such as fire, inundation and tsunami, (2) simulation technology based on recent findings such as three dimensional responses of buildings / structures and its effect on equipment, (3) requirements of the fragility evaluation for various failure mode of several equipment such as severe accident management equipment, fine failure mode of buildings / structures, failures of equipment related with earthquake concomitant incidents (embankment and seawall) and spent fuel pool, and (4) requirements for the fragility evaluation of aftershocks and soil deformation due to fault displacement. (T. Tanaka)

  11. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  12. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  13. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  14. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  15. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  16. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  17. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  18. [Use of ionizing radiation sources in metallurgy: risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giugni, U

    2012-01-01

    Use of ionizing radiation sources in the metallurgical industry: risk assessment. Radioactive sources and fixed or mobile X-ray equipment are used for both process and quality control. The use of ionizing radiation sources requires careful risk assessment. The text lists the characteristics of the sources and the legal requirements, and contains a description of the documentation required and the methods used for risk assessment. It describes how to estimate the doses to operators and the relevant classification criteria used for the purpose of radiation protection. Training programs must be organized in close collaboration between the radiation protection expert and the occupational physician.

  19. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  20. Evolutionary leap in large-scale flood risk assessment needed

    OpenAIRE

    Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Bates, Paul D.; de Bruijn, Karin; Castellarin, Attilio; Kreibich, Heidi; Priest, Sally J.; Schröter, Kai; Bagli, Stefano; Blöschl, Günter; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Gouldby, Ben; Klijn, Frans; Lammersen, Rita; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Ridder, Nina

    2018-01-01

    Current approaches for assessing large-scale flood risks contravene the fundamental principles of the flood risk system functioning because they largely ignore basic interactions and feedbacks between atmosphere, catchments, river-floodplain systems and socio-economic processes. As a consequence, risk analyses are uncertain and might be biased. However, reliable risk estimates are required for prioritizing national investments in flood risk mitigation or for appraisal and management of insura...

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  2. N reactor external events probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baxter, J.T.

    1989-01-01

    An external events probabilistic risk assessment of the N Reactor has been completed. The methods used are those currently being proposed for external events analysis in NUREG-1150. Results are presented for the external hazards that survived preliminary screening. They are earthquake, fire, and external flood. Core damage frequencies for these hazards are shown to be comparable to those for commercial pressurized water reactors. Dominant fire sequences are described and related to 10 CFR 50, Appendix R design requirements. Potential remedial measures that reduce fire core damage risk are described including modifications to fire protection systems, procedure changes, and addition of new administrative controls. Dominant seismic sequences are described. The effect of non-safety support system dependencies on seismic risk is presented

  3. ArgueSecure: Out-of-the-box Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan; Kegel, Roeland Hendrik,Pieter; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Baltuta, Andrei

    Most established security risk assessment methodologies aim to produce ranked lists of risks. But ranking requires quantification of risks, which in turn relies on data which may not be available or estimations which might not be accurate. As an alternative, we have previously proposed

  4. Behavioral Risk Assessment of the Guarded Suicidal Patient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Robert I.

    2008-01-01

    Psychiatrists and other mental health professionals are trained to assess patients by direct observation and examination. Short inpatient length of stay, brief outpatient visits, emergency room evaluations, and other time-limited clinical settings require rapid assessment of suicide risk. Recognition of behavioral suicide risk factors can assist…

  5. 7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27 Section 1730.27 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...

  6. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  7. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  8. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  9. 76 FR 3697 - Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-20

    ... Part II Commodity Futures Trading Commission 17 CFR Part 39 Risk Management Requirements for... RIN 3038-AC98 Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations AGENCY: Commodity... (Participant and Product Eligibility), D (Risk Management), E (Settlement Procedures), F (Treatment of Funds...

  10. 7 CFR 760.104 - Risk management purchase requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management purchase requirements. 760.104 Section... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.104 Risk management purchase requirements. (a) To be eligible... available from the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA)) obtained catastrophic coverage or better under a...

  11. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  12. Radiological risk assessment of isotope laboratories according to the requirements of the radiation protection ordinance and the protective labour legislation; Beurteilung des radiologischen Risikos von Isotopenlaboratorien nach den Vorgaben der Strahlenschutzverordnung und den Richtlinien fuer Arbeitssicherheit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stuerm, R.P. [SafPro AG, Ausbildung und Beratung in Strahlenschutz, Basel (Switzerland); Kuster, M. [Novartis International AG, Corporate Health, Safety and Environment, Basel (Switzerland); Traub, K. [Novartis Pharma AG, Zentralstelle fuer Strahlenschutz, Basel (Switzerland)

    2001-07-01

    According to the Swiss Radiation Safety Ordinance the supervising authority may require a safety report from the operator of a radioactive laboratory (Art.95) and establish the methodology of the risk analysis. Isotope laboratories of the chemical industry are supervised by Swiss accident insurance agency (SUVA). In that respect SUVA safeguards both radiation protection issues and general protection of the workers and established guide lines in order to assess conventional risks in industrial premises. In these conventional analysis the working process is analysed according to its possible detriment (death, severe invalidity, slight invalidity, injury with absence, injury without absence) and the probability of occurrence (frequent, seldom, rare, improbable, virtually impossible). According to this the risks are categorised in a matrix as 'high', 'medium' and 'low'. SUVA requested such a risk analysis for two isotope laboratories of B type in Basel in which on the one hand the hazard to the workers on the other hand to the public should be analysed and radiologically assessed. It was proposed to use a methodology established in workers safety and the insurance section. This required a comparison of risks of radiation doses in mSv to the consequences of conventional working accidents (death, invalidity) and the risk perception of the public and politicians. In this paper this risk matrix derived in discussions among the supervising body, the company management, the laboratory head and workers is described. In the opinion of the authors such a comparison between radiological and conventional risks has not been performed up to now and the results obtained here are open to discussion. (orig.) [German] Gemaess schweizerischer Strahlenschutzverordnung kann die Aufsichtsbehoerde vom Inhaber einer Bewilligung zum Umgang mit radioaktiven Stoffen einen Sicherheitsbericht verlangen (Art. 95) und die Methodik der Stoerfallanalyse festlegen (Art

  13. 12 CFR 932.5 - Market risk capital requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... estimates the market value of the Bank's assets and liabilities, off-balance sheet items, and derivative... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Market risk capital requirement. 932.5 Section... CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.5 Market risk capital requirement. (a...

  14. Toxicological requirements for risk assessment of shellfish ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There is increasing concern by consumers with regard to the health aspects and safety of foodstuffs. Most food additives and contaminants are controlled by regulatory authorities, with Acceptable Daily Intakes (ADIs) having been set on the basis of detailed acute short- and long-term toxicological studies. The situation with ...

  15. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  16. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  17. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  18. Assessment of requirements for dry towers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, D E; Sonnichsen, J C

    1976-09-01

    The regional limitations of surface water supplies in the U.S. were assessed with respect to the consumptive use requirements of wet cooling towers. The study simulated unit consumptive use factors by region, assessed regional water supplies, and examined electric load projections through 2000 A.D. to ascertain where and when water limitations may occur and, therefore, where dry cooling may be required. It was concluded that the cooling water supply situation in the United States through the year 2000 is adequate in most areas, but is uncertain over much of the Southwest. The uncertainty is related to increasing competition for the available supplies and to potential Federal and/or State policy decisions that may have a significant effect on power plant cooling. Limitations on coastal siting, seismic zone constraints, and state constraints on the purchase and transfer of water rights from other uses to cooling supply have the potential of bringing wet/dry or dry cooling into relatively common use in the 1990's. (LCL)

  19. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  20. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  1. Risk assessment and radioactive waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, J.J.

    1979-01-01

    Problems of radioactive waste management, both real and apparent, have provided a serious constraint in the development of nuclear power. Several studies have been conducted in an attempt to evaluate the actual (quantifiable) risks of radioactive waste management and place them in a reasonable perspective. These studies are reviewed and discussed. Generally, the studies indicate the risks to be of a level of seriousness which might normally be considered acceptable in current society. However, it is apparent that this acceptability has not been attained and public apprehension prevails. To understand the reasons for this apprehension requires an assessment of those factors of ''perceived'' risks which play a major role in determining public attitudes toward radioactive waste management programs and nuclear power, in general. Such factors might include the spector of legacies of harm to future generations, genetic effects, nuclear garbage dumps, proliferation of plutonium inventories, nuclear terrorism, etc. A major problem in development of acceptable waste management policies and programs requires not only the recognition of the importance of perceived risk factors but development of a methodology for their incorporation in planning and conduct of such activities. Some approaches to the development of this methodology are discussed

  2. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  3. A methodology for assessment seismic risk in PSAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jae, Moo Sung

    2001-01-01

    This paper suggested a new framework for assessing seismic risk in PSAs. The framework used the concepts of requirement and achievement in the reliability physics. The quantified correlation which is a function of the requirement variable (hazard curve) and the achievement variable (fragility curve) results in a quantity, the unconditional frequency of exceeding a damage lelvel. This framework can be applied to any other external safety assessment, such as Fire and Flood Risk in PSAs

  4. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  5. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  6. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  7. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  8. Quantitative risk assessment: an emerging tool for emerging foodborne pathogens.

    OpenAIRE

    Lammerding, A. M.; Paoli, G. M.

    1997-01-01

    New challenges to the safety of the food supply require new strategies for evaluating and managing food safety risks. Changes in pathogens, food preparation, distribution, and consumption, and population immunity have the potential to adversely affect human health. Risk assessment offers a framework for predicting the impact of changes and trends on the provision of safe food. Risk assessment models facilitate the evaluation of active or passive changes in how foods are produced, processed, d...

  9. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    OpenAIRE

    Xin Sun; Ping Ning; Xiaolong Tang; Honghong Yi; Kai Li; Lianbi Zhou; Xianmang Xu

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the...

  10. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  11. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  12. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  13. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero Rojo, F. J.; Roy, R.; Kelly, S.

    2012-05-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  14. Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojo, F J Romero; Roy, R; Kelly, S

    2012-01-01

    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the bill of materials (BoM) is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the BoM are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.

  15. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  16. Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horie, Seichi

    2010-09-01

    Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  17. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  18. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  19. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  20. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  1. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  2. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  3. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  4. 76 FR 16587 - Risk Management Requirements for Derivatives Clearing Organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-24

    ... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 39 RIN 3038-AC98 Risk Management Requirements for... other things, would implement DCO Core Principle D (Risk Management) and would establish a related... framework to reduce risk, increase transparency, and promote market integrity within the financial system...

  5. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  6. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  7. Environmental risk assessment in GMO analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirondini, Andrea; Marmiroli, Nelson

    2010-01-01

    Genetically modified or engineered organisms (GMOs, GEOs) are utilised in agriculture, expressing traits of interest, such as insect or herbicide resistance. Soybean, maize, cotton and oilseed rape are the GM crops with the largest acreage in the world. The distribution of GM acreage in the different countries is related with the different positions concerning labelling of GMO products: based on the principle of substantial equivalence, or rather based on the precautionary principle. The paper provides an overview on how the risks associated with release of GMO in the environments can be analysed and predicted, in view of a possible coexistence of GM and non-GM organisms in agriculture.Risk assessment procedures, both qualitative and quantitative, are compared in the context of application to GMOs considering also legislation requirements (Directive 2001/18/EC). Criteria and measurable properties to assess harm for human health and environmental safety are listed, and the possible consequences are evaluated in terms of significance.Finally, a mapping of the possible risks deriving from GMO release is reported, focusing on gene transfer to related species, horizontal gene transfer, direct and indirect effects on non target organisms, development of resistance in target organisms, and effects on biodiversity.

  8. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  9. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  10. Risk Assessment tailored to cryogenics - LINDE approach

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The following Risk Assessment Tools will be presented: **HAZID – Hazard Identification Study** Application: if the process contains new applications or provides new challenges (e.g. plant location) Purpose: Identify hazards such as fire/explosion, toxic impact, occupational hazards etc. and assess adequate preventive / mitigation measures **HAZOP – Hazard and Operability Study** Application: for all Projects Purpose: Detailed review of design reflected in the PID to ensure that adequate safeguards are available for all possible process upsets or maloperations. **HAZAN – Hazard Analysis** Application: for all PFHE (plate-fin heat exchangers), CWHE (coil wound heat exchangers) and straight tube sheet heat exchangers Purpose: detailed analysis of the impact of process upset conditions and start-up / shut down scenarios on the lifetime of the heat exchangers – including definition of additional safeguards, if required. **TQR – Technology Qualification Review** Application: for applications...

  11. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  12. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  13. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  14. Assessing the Invasion Risk of Eucalyptus in the United States Using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doria R. Gordon

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Many agricultural species have undergone selection for traits that are consistent with those that increase the probability that a species will become invasive. However, the risk of invasion may be accurately predicted for the majority of plant species tested using the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA. This system has been tested in multiple climates and geographies and, on average, correctly identifies 90% of the major plant invaders as having high invasion risk, and 70% of the noninvaders as having low risk. We used this tool to evaluate the invasion risk of 38 Eucalyptus taxa currently being tested and cultivated in the USA for pulp, biofuel, and other purposes. We predict 15 taxa to have low risk of invasion, 14 taxa to have high risk, and 9 taxa to require further information. In addition to a history of naturalization and invasiveness elsewhere, the traits that significantly contribute to a high invasion risk conclusion include having prolific seed production and a short generation time. Selection against these traits should reduce the probability that eucalypts cultivated in the USA will become invasive threats to natural areas and agricultural systems.

  15. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ``baseline`` risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site.

  16. Reference manual for toxicity and exposure assessment and risk characterization. CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-03-01

    The Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA, 1980) (CERCLA or Superfund) was enacted to provide a program for identifying and responding to releases of hazardous substances into the environment. The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act (SARA, 1986) was enacted to strengthen CERCLA by requiring that site clean-ups be permanent, and that they use treatments that significantly reduce the volume, toxicity, or mobility of hazardous pollutants. The National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP) (USEPA, 1985; USEPA, 1990) implements the CERCLA statute, presenting a process for (1) identifying and prioritizing sites requiring remediation and (2) assessing the extent of remedial action required at each site. The process includes performing two studies: a Remedial Investigation (RI) to evaluate the nature, extent, and expected consequences of site contamination, and a Feasibility Study (FS) to select an appropriate remedial alternative adequate to reduce such risks to acceptable levels. An integral part of the RI is the evaluation of human health risks posed by hazardous substance releases. This risk evaluation serves a number of purposes within the overall context of the RI/FS process, the most essential of which is to provide an understanding of ''baseline'' risks posed by a given site. Baseline risks are those risks that would exist if no remediation or institutional controls are applied at a site. This document was written to (1) guide risk assessors through the process of interpreting EPA BRA policy and (2) help risk assessors to discuss EPA policy with regulators, decision makers, and stakeholders as it relates to conditions at a particular DOE site

  17. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  18. Information Security Risk Assessment in Hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayatollahi, Haleh; Shagerdi, Ghazal

    2017-01-01

    To date, many efforts have been made to classify information security threats, especially in the healthcare area. However, there are still many unknown risks which may threat the security of health information and their resources especially in the hospitals. The aim of this study was to assess the risks threatening information security in the hospitals located in one of the northwest cities of Iran. This study was completed in 2014. The participants were information technology managers who worked in the hospitals (n=27). The research instrument was a questionnaire composed of a number of open and closed questions. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed, and the reliability of the closed questions was measured by using the test-retest method (r =0.78). The results showed that among the information security risks, fire found to be a high probability/high impact risk factor. Human and physical/environmental threats were among the low probability risk factors. Regarding the information security safeguards used in the hospitals, the results showed that the use of the technical safeguards was the most frequent one (n =22, 91.7%) compared to the administrative (n =21, 87.5%) and the physical safeguards (n =16, 66.7%). The high probability risk factors require quick corrective actions to be taken. Therefore, the underlying causes of such threats should be identified and controlled before experiencing adverse effects. It is also important to note that information security in health care systems needs to be considered at a macro level with respect to the national interests and policies.

  19. IT Confidentiality Risk Assessment for an Architecture-Based Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morali, A.; Zambon, Emmanuele; Etalle, Sandro; Overbeek, Paul

    2008-01-01

    Information systems require awareness of risks and a good understanding of vulnerabilities and their exploitations. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the systematic assessment and analysis of confidentiality risks caused by disclosure of operational and functional information. The

  20. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  1. Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovilė Peškauskaitė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

  2. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  3. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  4. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  5. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  6. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  7. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  8. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  9. Ergonomic risk assessment by REBA method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hassanzadeh

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims   Awkward posture has been recognized as one of the important risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD. The current study aimed at determining ergonomic risk level, WMSDs ratio and exploring working postures contribution to WMSD. During the study, working postures were phased and then they were scored using the REBAtool from observing the work.   Methods   To perform the study, workers of a home appliances manufacturing factory were  assessed. In order to collecting required data, each part of the body was scored and work frequency,  load/force, coupling were considered to achieve a REBA score. Nordic Questionnaire was used  to determining WMSD ratio and its relationship whit REBA score. 231 working phases were  assessed and 13761 questions using Nordic Questionnaire were answered. Percentage of the workers in press, spot welding, grinding, cutting, assembling, and painting was 15.8, 21.6, 25.9, 34.5, 89.9%, respectively. Workers were 18-54 years old and their work recording average was 52  month.   Results   REBAscore was 4-13 in under study tasks. REBA score = 9 had the most frequency  (20% and REBA score =13 had the least frequency (1.4%. Risk level in press, cutting, and  painting was high (25.5, 100, 68.2% cases. This shows that cutting has the highest risk level. On the other hand 38.5% of the workers in past 12 month had problem in different parts of their body. Totally 11.7% of the workers had problem in neck, 19.4$ in leg, 10.7% in foot, 82.5% in lower back,  87.6% in upper back and 7.8% in shoulders.10.7% of the workers had previous illness that 8.7%  of them were non occupational and 1.9% were caused their previous jobs. The REBAscore mean  and ergonomic risk level is not equal in tasks (p-value0. Action level was necessary  soon in others.   Conclusion   Risk level should be reduced specially in cutting. The heavy workload and  working height poor design, awkward

  10. [Leflunomide: assessing teratogenic risk during the first trimester of pregnancy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casanova Sorní, C; Romá Sánchez, E; Pelufo Pellicer, A; Poveda Andrés, J L

    2005-01-01

    To assess the teratogenic risk associated with leflunomide during the first quarter of pregnancy, and to establish guidelines to minimize said risk. Literature search using tertiary, secondary, and primary sources related to teratogenicity, including databases (MEDLINE and EMBASE) and specific webs. The information required for assessment, as well as for the establishment of criteria was collected. Leflunomide demonstrated an increased risk of fetal death and teratogenic effects in animals. No major or minor malformation cases have been reported in humans regarding leflunomide, which is classified within category X of fetal risk. A wash-out regimen may possibly reduce the risk for fetal harm. Conception scheduling or early pregnancy detection is required for better clinical counselling and the avoidance of unnecessary risk.

  11. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  12. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  13. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  14. Earthquake risk assessment of building structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, Bruce R.

    2001-01-01

    During the past two decades, probabilistic risk analysis tools have been applied to assess the performance of new and existing building structural systems. Structural design and evaluation of buildings and other facilities with regard to their ability to withstand the effects of earthquakes requires special considerations that are not normally a part of such evaluations for other occupancy, service and environmental loads. This paper reviews some of these special considerations, specifically as they pertain to probability-based codified design and reliability-based condition assessment of existing buildings. Difficulties experienced in implementing probability-based limit states design criteria for earthquake are summarized. Comparisons of predicted and observed building damage highlight the limitations of using current deterministic approaches for post-earthquake building condition assessment. The importance of inherent randomness and modeling uncertainty in forecasting building performance is examined through a building fragility assessment of a steel frame with welded connections that was damaged during the Northridge Earthquake of 1994. The prospects for future improvements in earthquake-resistant design procedures based on a more rational probability-based treatment of uncertainty are examined

  15. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  16. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  17. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  18. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  19. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  20. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  1. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  2. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  3. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  4. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  5. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  6. Context specificity in the assessment of psychosocial risk at work

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Camerino, Donatella; Conway, Paul Maurice; Fattori, Alice

    2014-01-01

    Background: Following EU requirements, in recent years standard procedures for the assessment of work-related stress have been developed in Italy. However, while such standardization has facilitated the spread and use of these procedures, it has brought a lack of specificity in risk assessment...

  7. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  8. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants (Cooperative Agreement DE-FC03-99SF21902, Am. M004) Final Technical Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritterbusch, Stanley E.

    2003-01-01

    accidents would be an inherent part of the Probabilistic Safety Assessment for the plant and their evaluation would be probabilistic. Other first year accomplishments include (1) the conversion of an NRC database for cross-referencing NRC criteria and industry codes and standards to Microsoft 2000 software, (2) an assessment of the NRC's hearing process which concluded that the normal cross-examination during public hearings is not actually required by the U.S. Administrative Procedures Act, (3) the identification and listing of reliability data sources, and (4) interfacing with other industry groups (e.g., NEI and IAEA) and NRC at workshops for risk-informing regulations. The major accomplishments during the second year consisted of (1) issuance of the final report for Subtask 1.1, ''Identify Current Applicable Regulatory Requirements [and Industry Standards],'' (2) issuance of the final report for Subtask 1.2,'' Identify Structures, Systems, and Components and Their Associate d Costs for a Typical Plant,'' (3) extension of the new, highly risk-informed design and regulatory framework to non-light-water-reactor technology, (4) completion of more detailed thermal-hydraulic and probabilistic analyses of advanced conceptual reactor system/component designs, (6) initial evaluation and recommendations for improvement of the NRC design review process, and (7) initial development of the software format, procedures and statistical routines needed to store, analyze and retrieve the available reliability data. Final reports for Subtasks 1.1 (regulatory and design criteria) and 1.2 (costs for structures, systems, and components) were prepared and issued. A final report for Subtask 1.3 (Regulatory Framework) was drafted with the aim to issue it in Phase 3 (Year 3). One technical report was produced for Subtask 1.4 (methods development) and two technical reports were produced for Subtask 1.6 (sample problem analysis). An interim report on the NRC design review process (Subtask 1.7) was

  9. Innovative human health and ecological risk assessment techniques at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, S.; Jones, K.; Goller, E.

    1993-01-01

    The open-quotes Hanford Site Baseline Risk Assessment Methodologyclose quotes (HSBRAM) was developed to enhance the preparation of risk assessments supporting the Hanford site cleanup mission. This methodology satisfies a Hanford federal facility agreement and consent order (tri-party agreement) milestone and is used to evaluate the risk to human health and the environment under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). The methodology was prepared by the Hanford Risk Assessment Committee (RAC) consisting of tri-party representatives: the U.S. Department of Energy, the State of Washington Department of Ecology, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), with associated contractors. The risk assessment guidance provided by EPA is sufficiently general to permit tailoring of specific parameters to meet the risk assessment needs of individual sites. The RAC utilized EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund, (RAGS) as the cornerstone of the HSBRAM. The RAC added necessary Hanford-specific elements to construct a complete risk assessment guidance for utilization as an independent document. The HSBRAM is a living document because the RAC charter emphasizes the importance of continued methodology reevaluation. The HSBRAM also provides guidelines for the application of EPA's open-quotes Framework for Ecological Risk Assessmentclose quotes to Hanford-specific environmental baseline risk assessments by including endangered and threatened species in addition to sensitive habitats potentially associated with the Hanford site and guidance for selection of ecotoxicological data. Separate negotiations for the selection of risk parameters for each operable unit were avoided by defining parameters in the HSBRAM. There are 78 past-practice operable units at Hanford requiring risk assessments

  10. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  11. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Leyla V; Wright, Mark G

    2017-07-07

    The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

  12. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leyla V. Kaufman

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

  13. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  14. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  15. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  16. Miniature Biosensor with Health Risk Assessment Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Andrea; Downs, Meghan; Kalogera, Kent; Buxton, Roxanne; Cooper, Tommy; Cooper, Alan; Cooper, Ross

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate (HR) monitoring is a medical requirement during exercise on the International Space Station (ISS), fitness tests, and extravehicular activity (EVA); however, NASA does not currently have the technology to consistently and accurately monitor HR and other physiological data during these activities. Performance of currently available HR monitor technologies is dependent on uninterrupted contact with the torso and are prone to data drop-out and motion artifact. Here, we seek an alternative to the chest strap and electrode based sensors currently in use on ISS today. This project aims to develop a high performance, robust earbud based biosensor with focused efforts on improved HR data quality during exercise or EVA. A health risk assessment algorithm will further advance the goals of autonomous crew health care for exploration missions.

  17. Risk impact of BWR technical specifications requirements during shutdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staple, B.D.; Kirk, H.K.; Yakle, J.

    1994-10-01

    This report presents an application of probabilistic models and risk based criteria for determining the risk impact of the Limiting Conditions of Operations (LCOs) in the Technical Specifications (TSs) of a boiling water reactor during shutdown. This analysis studied the risk impact of the current requirements of Allowed Outage Times (AOTs) and Surveillance Test Intervals (STIs) in eight Plant Operational States (POSs) which encompass power operations, shutdown, and refueling. This report also discusses insights concerning TS action statements

  18. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  19. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palecek, M [Occupational Safety Research Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1992-07-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems.

  20. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palecek, M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  1. Development of a system utilizing data of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagasaka, Akihiko; Takano, Kenichi; Ebisu, Mitsuhiro; Aikawa, Tadashi; Hayase, Kenichi

    2004-01-01

    This report deals with a concrete method of utilizing data of risk assessment. First, the authors point out the necessity to assess all stages of jobs (planning, meeting with contractors, performing phase of task, etc.) in risk assessment bout jobs in electric power company, because most jobs are performed by contract system and risks of a job are distributed over electric company, contractors and subcontractors. Secondly, risks estimated from past accidents and near-miss events must be included. If these 2 requirements are fulfilled, data of risk assessment can be more useful. Then below 4 forms of present data of risk assessment were developed. A form to be used in job planning stage in electric companies for efficient investment planning in safety measures. A form to be used in meetings between electric companies and contractors for checking accident prevention methods. A form to be used in meetings between contractors and subcontractors for enhancing a shared awareness of risk. A form to be used in tool box meetings for confirming safe condition and inheriting of ability of risk perception. Additionally, a data base system of risk assessment about 4 jobs was developed. This system prints out about 4 forms for each job and is useful for PDCA of safety activities. (author)

  2. The use of comparative risk assessment in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chicken, J.C.; Hayns, M.R.; Tolley, B.

    1989-01-01

    This paper justifies: 1) Comparative risk assessment provides a way of establishing whether or not the risks associated with a novel proposal are likely to satisfy current norms. 2) Comparative risk assessment is an aid to decision making when for some reason there is inadequate quantitative data about the risks associated with a project. 3) One problem is that there is no single universally acceptable norm. Norms vary both with time and from activity to activity. The spread of acceptable norms spans at least two orders of magnitude. 4) For any comparative risk assessment to be considered more than a suggestion on how acceptable a risk is, the risks that are compared must be similar and located in similar cultural and geographical environments. 5) Ulitmately justification of the acceptability of a project must be based on data generated directly by the project itself and any opinion based on comparative evidence must be iteratively revised as direct hard evidence becomes available. 6) Comparative risk assessment has a useful role in presentations to the lay public about the acceptability of a particular risk. 7) There may be more problems in making a comparative assessment of risk acceptability in socio-political terms than in technical or economic terms. The central requirement that the comparison must be based on data from similar cultural backgrounds is often hard to satisfy in relation to socio-political considerations

  3. RiskREP: Risk-Based Security Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (extended version)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herrmann, Andrea; Morali, A.

    2010-01-01

    Today, companies are required to be in control of the security of their IT assets. This is especially challenging in the presence of limited budgets and conflicting requirements. Here, we present Risk-Based Requirements Elicitation and Prioritization (RiskREP), a method for managing IT security

  4. Risk assessment of LAN communications

    OpenAIRE

    Paylor, Mark Alan

    1992-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited The National Computer Security Center's (NCSC) Computer Security Requirements -- Guidance for Applying the DoD TCSEC in Specific Environments (CSC-STD-003-85) describes an environmental evaluation process which can be utilized to determine the level of trust required in a given Local Area Network (LAN) system for processing sensitive information. This thesis investigates the environmental evaluation process and applies it to the LAN en...

  5. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  6. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  7. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  8. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  9. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  10. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  11. Computerised Genetic Risk Assessment and Decision Support in Primary Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Coulson

    2000-09-01

    To address these issues, a new computer application called RAGs (Risk Assessment in Genetics has been designed. The system allows a doctor to create family trees and assess genetic risk of breast cancer. RAGs possesses two features that distinguish it from similar software: (a a user-centred design, which takes into account the requirements of the doctor-patient encounter; (b risk reporting using qualitative evidence for or against an increased risk, which the authors believe to be more useful and accessible than numerical probabilities are. In that the system allows for any genetic risk guideline to be implemented, it can be used with all diseases for which evaluation guidelines exist. The software may be easily modified to cater for the amount of detail required by different specialists.

  12. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  13. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of technical specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1994-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: Quantitatively evaluate the risk and justify changes based on objective risk arguments; Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The US NRC Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  14. Handbook of methods for risk-based analysis of Technical Specification requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Technical Specifications (TS) requirements for nuclear power plants define the Limiting Conditions for Operation (LCOs) and Surveillance Requirements (SRs) to assure safety during operation. In general, these requirements were based on deterministic analysis and engineering judgments. Experiences with plant operation indicate that some elements of the requirements are unnecessarily restrictive, while others may not be conducive to safety. Improvements in these requirements are facilitated by the availability of plant specific Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs). The use of risk and reliability-based methods to improve TS requirements has gained wide interest because these methods can: quantitatively evaluate the risk impact and justify changes based on objective risk arguments. Provide a defensible basis for these requirements for regulatory applications. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) Office of Research is sponsoring research to develop systematic risk-based methods to improve various aspects of TS requirements. The handbook of methods, which is being prepared, summarizes such risk-based methods. The scope of the handbook includes reliability and risk-based methods for evaluating allowed outage times (AOTs), action statements requiring shutdown where shutdown risk may be substantial, surveillance test intervals (STIs), defenses against common-cause failures, managing plant configurations, and scheduling maintenances. For each topic, the handbook summarizes methods of analysis and data needs, outlines the insights to be gained, lists additional references, and presents examples of evaluations

  15. Judicial aspects in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukes, R.

    1977-01-01

    Decisions of administrative authorities concerning the permission to use fissile material contain a prognosis about the probability of damage which may be caused by using this material. The judicial criteria used in order to determine the probability of such a damage occurring can be improved by risk analysis. This will not, of course, reduce administrative decisions to simple 'yes-or-no decisions', but the calculation of probabilities will gain more exactness. (orig.) [de

  16. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  17. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  18. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of

  19. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: a discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire TG; Stevenson H; Pieters MN; Rennen M; Slob W; Hakkert BC; Nederlandse organisatie voor; CSR; LEO; TNO-ITV

    1998-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute towards further harmonisation of the human health risk assessment. It discusses the development of a formal, harmonised set of default assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed. Options are presented

  20. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  1. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  2. Occupational Health Policies on Risk Assessment in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seichi Horie

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law of Japan requires abnormalities identifi ed in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording “employers shall endeavor.” Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifi es criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer signifi cant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, fi nancial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  3. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  4. The assessment and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daglish, J.

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

  5. A survey of ecological risk assessment at DOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnthouse, L.W.; Bascietto, J.; Joseph, T.; Bilyard, G.

    1992-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Risk-Based Standards Working Group is studying standard-setting and remedial action based on realistic estimates of human health and ecological risks. Federal and state regulations require DOE to assess ecological risks due to present and past operation of DOE facilities and ecological damage caused by remedial actions. Unfortunately, little technical guidance has been provided by regulatory agencies about how these assessments should be performed or what constitutes an adequate assessment. Active ecological research, environmental characterization, and ecological risk assessment programs are already underway at many locations. Some of these programs were established more than 30 years ago. Because of the strength of its existing programs and the depth of expertise available within the DOE complex, the agency is in a position to lead in developing ecological risk assessment procedures that are fully consistent with the general principles defined by EPA and that will ensure environmentally sound and cost-effective restoration of its sites. As a prelude to guidance development, the working group conducted a survey of ecological risk assessment activities at a subset of major DOE facilities. The survey was intended to (1) identify approaches now being used in ecological risk assessments performed by DOE staff and contractors at each site, (2) record successes and failures of these approaches, (3) identify new technical developments with potential for general application to many DOE facilities, and (4) identify major data needs, data resources, and methodological deficiencies

  6. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  7. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  8. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  9. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  10. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  11. An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanorsdale, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

  12. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  13. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  14. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  15. Assessment of Geothermal Data Resources and Requirements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2008-09-01

    This paper is a review of Geothermal Technologies Program activities and archives related to data collection and analysis. It includes an assessment of the current state of geothermal data, future program and stakeholder data needs, existence of and access to critical data, and high-level direction and prioritization of next steps to meet the Program’s data needs.

  16. EPA`s program for risk assessment guidelines: Quantification issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dourson, M.L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The quantitative procedures associated with noncancer risk assessment include reference dose (RfD), benchmark dose, and severity modeling. The RfD, which is part of the EPA risk assessment guidelines, is an estimation of a level that is likely to be without any health risk to sensitive individuals. The RfD requires two major judgments: the first is choice of a critical effect(s) and its No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL); the second judgment is choice of an uncertainty factor. This paper discusses major assumptions and limitations of the RfD model.

  17. Risk assessment - The perspective and experience of US environmentalists

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silbergeld, Ellen [University of Maryland, Baltimore (United States)

    1992-07-01

    Since 1981, risk assessment has formed the methodological basis for much public policy related to occupational and environmental chemicals in the US. Risk assessment rose to prominence out of public concern over the potential contribution of chemical exposures to cancer and out of public frustration with delays in regulation by the Environmental Agency (EPA) and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). In addition, pressures from industry required EPA and OSHA to provide a scientific rationale for specific regulatory decisions. The past decade provides a convenient body of evidence upon which to consider the value of risk assessment as a method for reaching public policy decisions. This paper will provide such an evaluation; from the environmentalist perspective. My criteria include: the efficiency, adequacy, clarity, enforceability, and public acceptability of regulation during this period. In addition, the scientific validity of risk assessment is of concern to environmentalists, as it is to others.

  18. An employee/trade union perspective to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aro, Pekka O.

    1992-01-01

    Risk assessment does not easily lend itself to precise description. In some of its current forms of application, it is little more than a modern way of throwing bones or looking at tea leaves or the entrails of sheep, like our ancestors used to do not so many centuries ago (the only real difference being perhaps that laboratory rats are cheaper and less messy than sheep). A its best, however, risk assessment can be used as a good tool to identify the needs for changes required to reduce hazards and to prevent accidents to humans or damage to the environment. This paper approaches risk assessment as a tool, highlighting the need and usefulness as well as the right of employees and their representatives to participate in all the steps involved in assessing the risks of the workplace and its environment

  19. Risk assessment - The perspective and experience of US environmentalists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silbergeld, Ellen

    1992-01-01

    Since 1981, risk assessment has formed the methodological basis for much public policy related to occupational and environmental chemicals in the US. Risk assessment rose to prominence out of public concern over the potential contribution of chemical exposures to cancer and out of public frustration with delays in regulation by the Environmental Agency (EPA) and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA). In addition, pressures from industry required EPA and OSHA to provide a scientific rationale for specific regulatory decisions. The past decade provides a convenient body of evidence upon which to consider the value of risk assessment as a method for reaching public policy decisions. This paper will provide such an evaluation; from the environmentalist perspective. My criteria include: the efficiency, adequacy, clarity, enforceability, and public acceptability of regulation during this period. In addition, the scientific validity of risk assessment is of concern to environmentalists, as it is to others

  20. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  1. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  2. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  3. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  4. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  5. Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

  6. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  7. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  8. Science and judgment in risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants

    .... This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments...

  9. Business managers turn to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Frank

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessments have evolved to help technical managers in nuclear and other industries to design and operate plant with safety in mind. However, they are now developing into the area of business management. (author)

  10. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  11. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  12. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  13. Nanomaterials: a challenge for toxicological risk assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, Andrea; Tentschert, Jutta; Luch, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    Nanotechnology has emerged as one of the central technologies in the twenty-first century. This judgment becomes apparent by considering the increasing numbers of people employed in this area; the numbers of patents, of scientific publications, of products on the market; and the amounts of money invested in R&D. Prospects originating from different fields of nanoapplication seem unlimited. However, nanotechnology certainly will not be able to meet all of the ambitious expectations communicated, yet has high potential to heavily affect our daily life in the years to come. This might occur in particular in the field of consumer products, for example, by introducing nanomaterials in cosmetics, textiles, or food contact materials. Another promising area is the application of nanotechnology in medicine fueling hopes to significantly improve diagnosis and treatment of all kinds of diseases. In addition, novel technologies applying nanomaterials are expected to be instrumental in waste remediation and in the production of efficient energy storage devices and thus may help to overcome world's energy problems or to revolutionize computer and data storage technologies. In this chapter, we will focus on nanomaterials. After a brief historic and general overview, current proposals of how to define nanomaterials will be summarized. Due to general limitations, there is still no single, internationally accepted definition of the term "nanomaterial." After elaborating on the status quo and the scope of nanoanalytics and its shortcomings, the current thinking about possible hazards resulting from nanoparticulate exposures, there will be an emphasis on the requirements to be fulfilled for appropriate health risk assessment and regulation of nanomaterials. With regard to reliable risk assessments, until now there is still the remaining issue to be resolved of whether or not specific challenges and unique features exist on the nanoscale that have to be tackled and distinctively

  14. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as

  15. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvin, B.N.

    1996-01-01

    An independent review of all facets of risk management, as it pertains to mergers and acquisitions within the petroleum industry, with no transactional motivation, was provided by a representative of a firm specializing in all phases of risk assessment. The following topics received attention: (1) the forward curve versus industry expectations, (2) investor expectations, (3) financial versus physical transactions, and (4) synthetic debt

  16. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  17. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  18. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  19. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  20. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  1. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  2. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  3. III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

    2017-06-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  5. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  6. Assessment and management of suicide risk in primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saini, Pooja; While, David; Chantler, Khatidja; Windfuhr, Kirsten; Kapur, Navneet

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment and management of suicidal patients is emphasized as a key component of care in specialist mental health services, but these issues are relatively unexplored in primary care services. To examine risk assessment and management in primary and secondary care in a clinical sample of individuals who were in contact with mental health services and died by suicide. Data collection from clinical proformas, case records, and semistructured face-to-face interviews with general practitioners. Primary and secondary care data were available for 198 of the 336 cases (59%). The overall agreement in the rating of risk between services was poor (overall κ = .127, p = .10). Depression, care setting (after discharge), suicidal ideation at last contact, and a history of self-harm were associated with a rating of higher risk. Suicide prevention policies were available in 25% of primary care practices, and 33% of staff received training in suicide risk assessments. Risk is difficult to predict, but the variation in risk assessment between professional groups may reflect poor communication. Further research is required to understand this. There appears to be a relative lack of suicide risk assessment training in primary care.

  7. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  8. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  9. Risk-informing special treatment requirements for reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKenna, E.M.; Reed, T.A.

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is proposing to make regulatory changes to the scope of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) requiring special treatment. ''Special treatment requirements'' refers to those specific examples of regulations that are applied in order to provide a high degree of assurance that SSC will be capable of performing their intended functions when needed. The current scope of SSCs covered by the special treatment requirements governing commercial nuclear reactors is deterministically based and stems primarily from the evaluation of selected design basis events, as described in updated final safety analysis reports (UFSARs). This regulatory framework provides reasonable assurance of no undue risk to the health and safety of the public. However, recent advances in technology, coupled with operating reactor experience, have suggested that an alternative approach that would use a risk-informed process for evaluating SSC safety significance, would, in turn, result in a more focused determination of which SSCs should receive special treatment requirements. (author)

  10. HANFORD SAFETY ANALYSIS & RISK ASSESSMENT HANDBOOK (SARAH)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    EVANS, C B

    2004-12-21

    The purpose of the Hanford Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) is to support the development of safety basis documentation for Hazard Category 2 and 3 (HC-2 and 3) U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities to meet the requirements of 10 CFR 830, ''Nuclear Safety Management''. Subpart B, ''Safety Basis Requirements.'' Consistent with DOE-STD-3009-94, Change Notice 2, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'' (STD-3009), and DOE-STD-3011-2002, ''Guidance for Preparation of Basis for Interim Operation (BIO) Documents'' (STD-3011), the Hanford SARAH describes methodology for performing a safety analysis leading to development of a Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and derivation of Technical Safety Requirements (TSR), and provides the information necessary to ensure a consistently rigorous approach that meets DOE expectations. The DSA and TSR documents, together with the DOE-issued Safety Evaluation Report (SER), are the basic components of facility safety basis documentation. For HC-2 or 3 nuclear facilities in long-term surveillance and maintenance (S&M), for decommissioning activities, where source term has been eliminated to the point that only low-level, residual fixed contamination is present, or for environmental remediation activities outside of a facility structure, DOE-STD-1120-98, ''Integration of Environment, Safety, and Health into Facility Disposition Activities'' (STD-1120), may serve as the basis for the DSA. HC-2 and 3 environmental remediation sites also are subject to the hazard analysis methodologies of this standard.

  11. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  13. Applying programmatic risk assessment to nuclear materials stabilization R and D planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenley, C.R.; Brown-van Hoozer, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    A systems engineering approach to programmatic risk assessment, derived from the aerospace industry, was applied to various stabilization technologies to assess their relative maturity and availability for use in stabilizing nuclear materials. The assessment provided valuable information for trading off available technologies and identified the at-risk technologies that will require close tracking by the Department of Energy (DOE) to mitigate programmatic risks

  14. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  15. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  16. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  17. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  18. Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) Marine Safety Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    NMSRA National Maritime Strategic Risk Assessment NPRM Notice of Proposed Rulemaking PFD Personal flotation device PIW Person in the water PWC...barriers’ purpose is to limit the spread of various nuisance species, with a more-recent emphasis on preventing the “lake-ward” influx of silver and...crewmembers at risk of falling overboard, anyone on open decks was required to wear a Type 1 personal flotation device (PFD). • Commercial towing vessels

  19. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  20. The stochastic risks of radioactive radiation - risk assessment, risk proportions, dose limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindackers, K.H.

    1990-01-01

    The latest data on the delayed injury to the a-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki reveal that the effects of radiation are more severe than was estimated in the past. However, the application of these data to small dose rate radiation exposure over longer periods of time leads to an overestimation of the actual risk. The future supersonic aviation schemes for altitudes within 20,000 m should include early personnel check-ups for assessment of the required protective measures. (orig./DG) [de

  1. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  2. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  3. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  4. Monitoring requirements for assessment of internal dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eckerman, K.F.

    1985-01-01

    Data obtained by routine personnel monitoring is usually not a sufficient basis for estimation of dose. Collected data must be interpreted carefully and supplemented with appropriate information before reasonably accurate estimates of dose (i.e., accurate enough to indicate whether or nor personnel are exposed in excess of recommended limits) can be developed. When the exposure is of sufficient magnitude that a rather precise estimate of dose is needed, the health physicist will bring to bear on the problem other, more refined, methods of dosimetry. These might include a reconstruction of the incident and, for internal emitters, an extensive series of in vivo measurements or analyses of excreta. Thus, cases of special significance must often be evaluated using techniques and resources beyond those routinely employed. This is not a criticism of most routine monitoring programs. These programs are usually carefully designed in a manner commensurate with the degree of exposure routinely encountered and the requirement of a practical program of radiation protection. 10 refs

  5. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  6. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  7. The California Multimedia Risk Assessment Protocol for Alternative Fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatch, T.; Ginn, T. R.; McKone, T. E.; Rice, D. W.

    2013-12-01

    Any new fuel in California requires approval by the state agencies overseeing human and environmental health. In order to provide a systematic evaluation of new fuel impacts, California now requires a multimedia risk assessment (MMRA) for fuel approval. The fuel MMRA involves all relevant state agencies including: the California Air Resources Board (CARB), the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB), the Office of Environmental Health Hazards Assessment (OEHHA), and the Department of Toxic Substances Control (DTSC) overseen by the California Environmental Protection Agency (CalEPA). The lead agency for MMRAs is the CARB. The original law requiring a multimedia assessment is California Health and Safety Code 43830.8. In addition, the low carbon fuel standard (LCFS), the Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), and the Verified Diesel Emission Control Strategy (VDECS) have provisions that can require a multimedia assessment. In this presentation, I give an overview of the California multimedia risk assessment (MMRA) for new fuels that has been recently developed and applied to several alternative fuels. The objective of the California MMRA is to assess risk of potential impacts of new fuels to multiple environmental media including: air, water, and soil. Attainment of this objective involves many challenges, including varying levels of uncertainty, relative comparison of incommensurate risk factors, and differing levels of priority assigned to risk factors. The MMRA is based on a strategy of relative risk assessment and flexible accommodation of distinct and diverse fuel formulations. The approach is tiered by design, in order to allow for sequentially more sophisticated investigations as knowledge gaps are identified and re-prioritized by the ongoing research. The assessment also involves peer review in order to provide coupling between risk assessment and stakeholder investment, as well as constructive or confrontational feedback. The multimedia assessment

  8. Regulatory risk assessment approaches for synthetic mineral fibres.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Paul; Holmes, Philip; Bevan, Ruth; Kamps, Klaus; Levy, Leonard; Greim, Helmut

    2015-10-01

    Exposure to synthetic mineral fibres (SMF) may occur in a number of workplace scenarios. To protect worker health, a number of different organisations worldwide have assessed the health risk of these materials and established workplace exposure limits. This paper outlines the basic principles of risk assessment and the scientific methods used to derive valid (justifiable) occupational exposure limits (OELs) and goes on to show how, for SMF, and particularly for refractory ceramic fibre (otherwise known as aluminosilicate wool, RCF/ASW), the methods used and the associated outcomes differ widely. It is argued that the resulting differences in established OELs prevent consistent and appropriate risk management of SMF worldwide, and that development of a transparent and harmonised approach to fibre risk assessment and limit-setting is required. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Corporate and program objectives focus on desired performance and results. ?Management decisions that affect how to meet these objectives now involve a complex mix of: technology, safety issues, operations, process considerations, employee considerations, regulatory requirements, financial concerns and legal issues. ?Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using a risk assessment methodology is only a starting point. ?A risk assessment program provides management with important input in the decision making process. ?A pro-active organization looks to the future to avoid problems, a reactive organization can be blindsided by risks that could have been avoided. ?You get out what you put in, how useful your program is will be up to the individual organization.

  10. Task-based dermal exposure models for regulatory risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Warren, N.D.; Marquart, H.; Christopher, Y.; Laitinen, J.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2006-01-01

    The regulatory risk assessment of chemicals requires the estimation of occupational dermal exposure. Until recently, the models used were either based on limited data or were specific to a particular class of chemical or application. The EU project RISKOFDERM has gathered a considerable number of

  11. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  12. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  13. On the use of conservatism in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    It is common to use conservatism in risk assessments, replacing uncertain quantities with values that lead to a higher level of risk. It is argued that the approach represents a practical method for dealing with uncertainties and lack of knowledge in risk assessment. If the computed probabilities meet the pre-defined criteria with the conservative quantities, there is strong support for the “real risk” to meet these criteria. In this paper we look more closely into this practice, the main aims being to clarify what it actually means and what the implications are, as well as providing some recommendations. The paper concludes that conservatism should be avoided in risk assessments – “best judgements” should be the ruling thinking, to allow for meaningful comparisons of options. By incorporating sensitivity analyses and strength of knowledge judgements for the background knowledge on which the assigned probabilities are based, the robustness of the conclusions can be more adequately assessed. - Highlights: • The paper clarifies the meaning of conservatism in risk assessments. • It is shown that a conservative policy has severe shortcomings. • It is concluded that conservatism should be avoided in risk assessments. • “Best judgements” should be the ruling thinking. • Sensitivity analyses and strength of knowledge judgements are required.

  14. Reinforcement of qualitative risk assessment proposals from computer science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friedlhuber, T.; Hibti, M.; Rauzy, A.

    2013-01-01

    During the last decade a lot of research has been made to evaluate concepts and methos of quantitative risk assessment in order to predict hazards more precisely. Nevertheless, the occurrence of new catastrophes like the Indonesian Tsunami in 2004, the Deepwater Horizon accident in 2010 or recently the Fukushima accidents in 2011 raise the question whether we may underestimate some natural limits of annotative risk assessment or even mistake its significance. Especially in the case of very unlikely events, in combination with uncertainty and severe consequences, may be we would do better to concentrate more on understanding risk than on calculating probability values. In this paper we apply progresses, made in the field of computer science, to tools and modelling concepts used in risk assessment. Regarding computer science, we point out now concepts, that may improve the quality of risk models and the process of model engineering. The goal is to reinforce the importance of qualitative risk assessment with the help of sophisticated tools and modelling. Qualitative risk assessment aims to understand risk and therefore reflects the initial idea of risk assessment. Risk understanding requires understanding systems and relations of components. It is fundamental to comprehend the meaning of components in fault- and event trees, to retrace all applied modifications and to highlight critical aspects. It is important how PSA models are visualized, documented, navigated, how results are presented and how model maintenance, integration and version control are performed. Also, the conjoint usage of different type of models (for example PSA models together with event sequence diagrams) can contribute to quality assurance. We present new concepts for various kind of problems. (author)

  15. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  16. Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titarenko, Boris

    2017-10-01

    The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

  17. Proposed rulemaking to risk-inform special treatment requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, Timothy A.; McKenna, Eileen M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents the status of Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) rulemaking efforts to risk-inform special treatment requirements that reside in Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations, 10 CFR Part 21, Part 50, and Part 100. The staff has prepared a proposed rulemaking to add a new section to 10 CFR Part 50 to provide an alternative set of requirements for treatment of structures, systems and components (SSCs), using a risk-informed categorization process to determine safety significance of the SSCs. These requirements can be voluntarily adopted by light-water reactor licensees and applicants. The proposed rule is based upon extensive interactions with stakeholders (including consideration of public comments on draft rule language made available on the NRC rulemaking web site), experience with pilot plants, and guidance development activities. The NRC staff expects that stakeholder input provided in response to the proposed rule issuance will be valuable and support the efforts to issue the final rule. (author)

  18. Pesticide risk assessment in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hill, Richard N [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1992-07-01

    In recognition of potential risks, all pesticides distributed and sold in the United States must fulfil extensive registration requirements for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Registration is a licensing procedure where industry must submit data to demonstrate the safety of pesticidal substances and products before they can be used commercially. The regulatory control of pesticides is unique among chemicals in the U.S. in that testing beyond initial registration may be imposed by the Agency throughout the commercial life of the chemical, as long as there is adequate justification. Registration requirements are gauged to the nature of potential exposures. For instance, more data are generally needed for food use registrations than for non-food uses because of direct consumption of treated foods by the whole U.S. population. Unlike pesticide practices in many countries and authorities, as in the European Community where agricultural pesticides, non-agricultural pesticides and genetically engineered microbial agents are handled by separate directives, all pesticide activities are covered in the U.S. by the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act. This statute covers pesticide uses on foods and animal feed and a number of non-food applications like forest and horticultural uses, residential lawn care, in-home applications, and disinfectants/sterilants. Traditional inorganic and organic chemicals are covered, as well as biological agents like pheromones. Naturally occurring and genetically altered microorganisms also come under the definition of pesticides, but multicellular animals are exempt from regulation as pesticides. Pesticide registration in the U.S. as in many other countries may be a long-term, resource intensive undertaking. Not uncommonly the process from beginning to complete registration may take 4 to 10 years and cost about $10 million. To meet the responsibilities of reviewing studies, overseeing 400 active ingredients and 35

  19. Pesticide risk assessment in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, Richard N.

    1992-01-01

    In recognition of potential risks, all pesticides distributed and sold in the United States must fulfil extensive registration requirements for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Registration is a licensing procedure where industry must submit data to demonstrate the safety of pesticidal substances and products before they can be used commercially. The regulatory control of pesticides is unique among chemicals in the U.S. in that testing beyond initial registration may be imposed by the Agency throughout the commercial life of the chemical, as long as there is adequate justification. Registration requirements are gauged to the nature of potential exposures. For instance, more data are generally needed for food use registrations than for non-food uses because of direct consumption of treated foods by the whole U.S. population. Unlike pesticide practices in many countries and authorities, as in the European Community where agricultural pesticides, non-agricultural pesticides and genetically engineered microbial agents are handled by separate directives, all pesticide activities are covered in the U.S. by the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act. This statute covers pesticide uses on foods and animal feed and a number of non-food applications like forest and horticultural uses, residential lawn care, in-home applications, and disinfectants/sterilants. Traditional inorganic and organic chemicals are covered, as well as biological agents like pheromones. Naturally occurring and genetically altered microorganisms also come under the definition of pesticides, but multicellular animals are exempt from regulation as pesticides. Pesticide registration in the U.S. as in many other countries may be a long-term, resource intensive undertaking. Not uncommonly the process from beginning to complete registration may take 4 to 10 years and cost about $10 million. To meet the responsibilities of reviewing studies, overseeing 400 active ingredients and 35

  20. Ecological risk assessment as a framework for environmental impact assessments

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Claassen, Marius

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessments in South Africa are usually conducted according to the integrated environmental management (IEM) procedure. The preliminary investigation reported here, indicated that most of the ecological requirements specified...

  1. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  2. Outlook for risk assessment and risk-informed regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Breutel, C.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

    2000-01-01

    The Western nuclear regulatory process has evolved from the initial engineering judgment' framework of the 1960's, the prescriptive deterministic requirements of the 1970s, the transition years of the 1980s, to the present day movement toward risk-informed approaches. In this paper, a short overview of the historic development of safety regulation is provided. The critique of traditional regulatory practice will be summarized and the features of risk-informed regulation will be discussed. The implementation of risk-informed regulation is considered on the basis of general legal principles common to many member states of the NEA and IAEA. In a process to risk-inform regulation, principles such as equal treatment, proportionality of rules and predictability of administrative action are found to be important. (author)

  3. A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase

  4. Estimation, assessment and management of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

    2005-01-01

    After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

  5. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith

    2001-01-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in practice, decision

  6. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith [Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom). Centre for Environmental Research and Training; Pollard, Simon; Twigger-Ross, Clare [National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, London (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in

  7. Primary Care Fall Risk Assessment for Elderly West Virginians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkemeyer, Vivian M; Meriweather, Matt; Shuler, Franklin D; Mehta, Saurabh P; Qazi, Zain N

    2015-01-01

    West Virginia is ranked second nationally for the percent of its population 65 years of age. The elderly are especially susceptible to falls with fall risk increasing as age increases. Because falls are the number one cause of injury-related morbidity and mortality in the West Virginia elderly, evaluation of fall risk is a critical component of the patient evaluation in the primary care setting. We therefore highlight fall risk assessments that require no specialized equipment or training and can easily be completed at an established office visit. High quality clinical practice guidelines supported by the American Geriatric Society recommend yearly fall risk evaluation in the elderly. Those seniors at greatest risk of falls will benefit from the standardized therapy protocols outlined and referral to a balance treatment center. Patients with low-to-moderate fall risk attributed to muscle weakness or fatigue should be prescribed lower extremity strengthening exercises, such as kitchen counter exercises, to improve strength and balance.

  8. Risk Assessment Approaches for Carcinogenic Food Contaminants

    OpenAIRE

    Gillespie, Zoe; Pulido, Olga; Vavasour, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Health Canada has identified the need for a standardized department-wide approach for the risk assessment of carcinogens in foods (e.g., pesticides, food chemical contaminants, veterinary therapeutics). A standardized approach would better facilitate and inform risk management strategies for the control of human exposure to food sources of carcinogens. Within the post- market regulatory context, directly DNA-reactive carcinogens are of most concern because any exposure is theoretically assume...

  9. Superfund risk assessment in soil contamination studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoddinott, K.B.

    1992-01-01

    This symposium was held in New Orleans, Louisiana on January 30-31, 1991. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of information on risk assessment associated with soil contamination. The conference included presentations in the following categories: site characterization; fate and transport; toxicity, exposures, and receptors; risk characterization/case studies; and establishing cleanup levels. Individual papers have been cataloged separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  10. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  12. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  13. Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter II, G.W.

    2003-06-18

    The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.

  14. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  15. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  16. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  17. Functional Behavior Assessments and Behavior Intervention Plans: Legal Requirements and Professional Recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Lauren W.; Zirkel, Perry A.

    2017-01-01

    Functional behavior assessments (FBAs) and behavior intervention plans (BIPs) are critical components in the education of students with, or at risk for, emotional disturbance (ED). The purpose of this article is to compare the legal requirements with the professional requirements for FBAs and BIPs. The comparison is first according to the…

  18. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

  19. Environmental health risk assessment: Energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Somers, E.; Winthrop, S.O.

    1984-01-01

    Most industrialized nations have come to rely on a variety of systems for energy production, both of a conventional and non-conventional nature. In the paper, the spectrum of energy systems currently in use in Canada is outlined along with their potential health risks. Several examples of environmental health studies involving both outdoor and indoor air pollution related to energy production in Canada are reported. The limitations of current technologies for assessing health risks are discussed and possible approaches to managing energy related health risks are indicated. (author)

  20. Risk assessment techniques for industrial installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croitoru, C.; Dumitrescu, M.; Preda, I.; Stefanescu, I.; Titescu, G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a risk analysis which concerns the following stages: identification of the initiation events, evaluation of the occurrence frequency of different accident sequences, assessment of human, economical, and environmental consequences, risk assessment and management. The study of the accident sequences subsequent to an initiation event was achieved by the event tree method. Also, there were developed methods based on mathematical models of installations which take into account reliability data, data concerning the exploitation history, and data referring to the human factor effects in the installation operation. These methods were used for the determination of occurrence frequencies of hydrogen sulfide emission accidents in the heavy water production installations

  1. Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions

  2. A review of probabilistic risk assessment of contaminated land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oeberg, T.; Bergbaeck, B.

    2005-01-01

    Background, Aims and Scope. The management and decisions concerning restoration of contaminated land often require indepth risk analyses. An environmental risk assessment is generally described as proceeding in four separate steps: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. The risk assessment should acknowledge and quantify the uncertainty in risk predictions. This can be achieved by applying probabilistic methods which, although they have been available for many years, are still not generally used. Risk assessment of contaminated land is an area where probabilistic methods have proved particularly useful. Many reports have appeared in the literature, mostly by North American researchers. The aim of this review is to summarize the experience gained so far, provide a number of useful examples, and suggest what may be done to promote probabilistic methods in Europe and the rest of the world. Methods. The available literature has been explored through searches in the major scientific and technical databases, WWW resources, textbooks and direct contacts with active researchers. A calculation example was created using standard simulation software. (orig.)

  3. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul G; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  4. Required Market Risk Premium among countries in 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Fernandez

    2015-12-01

    This survey also links with the Equity Premium Puzzle. It may be explained by the fact that many market participants use historical data and advice from textbooks and finance professors. Consequently, ex-ante equity premia have been high, most market prices have been consistently undervalued, and the ex-post risk premia has been also high. Many investors use historical data and textbook prescriptions to estimate the required and the expected equity premium, the undervaluation and the high ex-post risk premium are self fulfilling prophecies.

  5. Assessment of Performance-based Requirements for Structural Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hertz, Kristian Dahl

    2005-01-01

    and for a detailed assessment of the requirements. The design requirements to be used for a factory producing elements for industrial housing for unknown costumers are discussed, and a fully developed fire is recommended as a common requirement for domestic houses, hotels, offices, schools and hospitals. In addition...

  6. Bruce NGS B risk assessment (BBRA) peer review process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaasalainen, S.; Crocker, W.P.; Webb, W.A.

    2001-01-01

    Risk-informed decision making is considered an effective approach to managing the risk of nuclear power plant operation in a competitive market. Hence, increased reliance on the station probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) to provide risk perspective inputs is inevitable. With increased reliance on the PRAs it is imperative that PRAs have the characteristics necessary to provide the required information. Recognizing the increased requirements on nuclear power plant PRAs the nuclear industry in the United States has expended significant effort over the past few years defining the required characteristics of a PRA for various applications. More recently several owners groups have drafted guidelines for PRA certification and several U.S. utilities have had their PRAs certified. During the year 2000 Ontario Power Generation, Nuclear (OPG,N) subjected the PRA of one of its stations to the U.S. style certification process. The PRA selected for this process was the Bruce B Risk Assessment (BBRA). BBRA was chosen for this process since it is the first OPG, N PRA to be used for risk-informed applications. However, the strengths of the BBRA identified from the certification process and the lessons learned are also largely applicable to the other OPG, N plant PRAs due to the use of similar methods and tools

  7. Mixtures and their risk assessment in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Moiz M; Hansen, Hugh; Pohl, Hana R

    2011-01-01

    For communities generally and for persons living in the vicinity of waste sites specifically, potential exposures to chemical mixtures are genuine concerns. Such concerns often arise from perceptions of a site's higher than anticipated toxicity due to synergistic interactions among chemicals. This chapter outlines some historical approaches to mixtures risk assessment. It also outlines ATSDR's current approach to toxicity risk assessment. The ATSDR's joint toxicity assessment guidance for chemical mixtures addresses interactions among components of chemical mixtures. The guidance recommends a series of steps that include simple calculations for a systematic analysis of data leading to conclusions regarding any hazards chemical mixtures might pose. These conclusions can, in turn, lead to recommendations such as targeted research to fill data gaps, development of new methods using current science, and health education to raise awareness of residents and health care providers. The chapter also provides examples of future trends in chemical mixtures assessment.

  8. Money laundering: correlation between risk assessment and suspicious transactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Cindori

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The risk assessment system was introduced in the Republic of Croatia in 2009, as a result of harmonization with international standards, especially the Directive 2005/60/EC on the prevention of the use of the financial system for the purpose of money laundering and terrorist financing. Risk assessment is an extensive concept which requires not only a legislative framework, but also the application of numerous criteria for its effective implementation in practice. Among these criteria are suspicious transactions, closely related to the assessment of the customer, transaction, product or service.The undeniable contribution of suspicious transactions to the quality of the risk assessment system will be confirmed by a statistical analysis of a number of West and East European countries. A combination of strict, but sufficiently flexible legal provisions governing the system for prevention of money laundering and terrorist financing and a statistical analysis of reported suspicious transactions will lead to conclusions that either support or represent criticism of the efficiency of application of the risk assessment system in practice.The aforementioned statistical analysis will show whether suspicious transactions are a reliable criterion for the risk assessment analysis, and whether they can be considered the only such criterion. There is a possibility that the findings of the analysis will be contradictory to those of some international studies.

  9. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  10. Assessing reservoir performance risk in CO2 storage projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowden, A.R.; Rigg, A.

    2005-01-01

    One of the main issues for researchers involved with geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) has been the development of a proper methodology to assess and compare alternative CO 2 injection projects on the basis of risk. Consideration needs to be given to technical aspects, such as the risk of leakage and the effectiveness of the intended reservoir, as well as less tangible aspects such as the value and safety of geological storage of CO 2 , and potential impacts on the community and environment. The Geological Disposal of Carbon Dioxide (GEODISC), was a research program of the Australian Petroleum Cooperative Research Centre which identified 56 potential environmentally sustainable sites for CO 2 injection (ESSCIs) within Australia. Several studies were carried out, involving detailed evaluation of the suitability of 4 selected sites, including Dongara, Petrel, Gippsland and Carnarvon. The GEODISC program included a risk assessment research module which required a complete and quantified risk assessment of CO 2 injection as a storage option. Primary goals were to assess the risk of leakage, to assess the effectiveness of the intended reservoir, and to assess negative consequences to facilitate comparison of alternative sites. This paper discussed the background and risk assessment model. Key performance indicators (KPIs) were also developed to address the purpose of risk assessment. It was concluded that the RISQUE method is an appropriate approach and that potential injection projects can be measured against six KPIs including containment; effectiveness; self-funding potential; wider community benefits; community safety and community amenity. 6 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs

  11. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  12. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  13. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  15. Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

    2018-03-01

    Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

  16. Risk Assessment and Management in the Networked Economy

    CERN Document Server

    Hussain, Omar K; Hussain, Farookh K; Chang, Elizabeth J

    2013-01-01

    Risk and reward are always foremost in the determination of investment decisions and business transactions. Advances in the area of Information Communication Technologies (ICT) have enabled the development of new business paradigms. Such paradigms involve transactions taking place between loosely connected parties, often totally or partially unknown to one another. One important concept required to ensure such transactions are successful is transactional risk. The importance of doing this has been demonstrated in recent financial crisis. This book is unique in simultaneously taking into account the likelihood of an event occurring and its financial impact and provides an integrated discussion of the process of transactional risk identification, assessment, evaluation, management and recording in these emerging domains. It provides a detailed and clear exposition of the importance of transactional risk before detailing for its assessment and evaluation.   The scope of the book is theoretical and practical and...

  17. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  18. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  19. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  1. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  2. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartsch, Detlef; Chueca, Cristina; De-Schrijver, Adinda

    risk evaluation. The scientific Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms (of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA GMO Panel) considers seven specific areas of concern to be addressed by applicants and risk assessors during the ERA (1) persistence and invasiveness of the GM plant , or its compatible......This document provides guidance for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of genetically modified (GM) plants submitted within the framework of Regulation (EC) No. 1829/2003 on GM food and feed or under Directive 2001/18/EC on the deliberate release into the environment of genetically modified...... organisms (GMOs). This document provides guidance for assessing potential effects of GM plants on the environment and the rationales for the data requirements for a comprehensive ERA of GM plants. The ERA should be carried out on a case-by-case basis, following a step-by-step assessment approach...

  3. Assessment and management of risk to wildlife from cadmium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, Joanna

    2008-01-01

    Cadmium, a nonessential heavy metal that comes from natural and anthropogenic sources, is a teratogen, carcinogen, and a possible mutagen. Assessment of potential risk from cadmium requires understanding environmental exposure, mainly from ingestion, although there is some local exposure through inhalation. Chronic exposure is more problematic than acute exposure for wildlife. There is evidence for bioaccumulation, particularly in freshwater organisms, but evidence for biomagnification up the food chain is inconsistent; in some bird studies, cadmium levels were higher in species that are higher on the food chain than those that are lower. Some freshwater and marine invertebrates are more adversely affected by cadmium exposure than are birds and mammals. There is very little experimental laboratory research on the effects of cadmium in amphibians, birds and reptiles, and almost no data from studies of wildlife in nature. Managing the risk from cadmium to wildlife involves assessment (including ecological risk assessment), biomonitoring, setting benchmarks of effects, regulations and enforcement, and source reduction

  4. Assessment and management of risk to wildlife from cadmium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burger, Joanna [Division of Life Sciences, Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute, Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey, 08854-8082 (United States)], E-mail: burger@biology.rutgers.edu

    2008-01-15

    Cadmium, a nonessential heavy metal that comes from natural and anthropogenic sources, is a teratogen, carcinogen, and a possible mutagen. Assessment of potential risk from cadmium requires understanding environmental exposure, mainly from ingestion, although there is some local exposure through inhalation. Chronic exposure is more problematic than acute exposure for wildlife. There is evidence for bioaccumulation, particularly in freshwater organisms, but evidence for biomagnification up the food chain is inconsistent; in some bird studies, cadmium levels were higher in species that are higher on the food chain than those that are lower. Some freshwater and marine invertebrates are more adversely affected by cadmium exposure than are birds and mammals. There is very little experimental laboratory research on the effects of cadmium in amphibians, birds and reptiles, and almost no data from studies of wildlife in nature. Managing the risk from cadmium to wildlife involves assessment (including ecological risk assessment), biomonitoring, setting benchmarks of effects, regulations and enforcement, and source reduction.

  5. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  6. Dermal absorption and toxicological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.

    2016-01-01

    Absorption of toxic substances via the skin is an important phenomenon in the assessment of the risk of exposure to these substances. People are exposed to a variety of substances and products via the skin, either directly or indirectly, while at work, at home or in public space. Pesticides,

  7. An approach to security risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  8. Next generation of microbiological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besten, den Heidy M.W.; Amézquita, Alejandro; Bover-Cid, Sara; Dagnas, Stéphane; Ellouze, Mariem; Guillou, Sandrine; Nychas, George; O'Mahony, Cian; Pérez-Rodriguez, Fernando; Membré, Jeanne Marie

    2017-01-01

    In food safety and public health risk evaluations, microbiological exposure assessment plays a central role as it provides an estimation of both the likelihood and the level of the microbial hazard in a specified consumer portion of food and takes microbial behaviour into account. While until now

  9. Ecological Risk Assessment in Water Resource Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The US EPA published guidelines for the application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in the USA in 1998 (US EPA 1998). The process diagram derived by Murray and Claassen (1999) in an evaluation of the US EPA framework is discussed in the context of the South African National Water Act. The evaluation discusses ...

  10. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  11. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  12. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps

  13. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  14. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

  15. Economic aspects of risk assessment in chemical safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drummond, M F; Shannon, H S

    1986-05-01

    This paper considers how the economic aspects of risk assessment in chemical safety can be strengthened. Its main focus is on how economic appraisal techniques, such as cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis, can be adapted to the requirements of the risk-assessment process. Following a discussion of the main methodological issues raised by the use of economic appraisal, illustrated by examples from the health and safety field, a number of practical issues are discussed. These include the consideration of the distribution of costs, effects and benefits, taking account of uncertainty, risk probabilities and public perception, making the appraisal techniques useful to the early stages of the risk-assessment process and structuring the appraisal to permit continuous feedback to the participants in the risk-assessment process. It is concluded that while the way of thinking embodied in economic appraisal is highly relevant to the consideration of choices in chemical safety, the application of these principles in formal analysis of risk reduction procedures presents a more mixed picture. The main suggestions for improvement in the analyses performed are the undertaking of sensitivity analyses of study results to changes in the key assumptions, the presentation of the distribution of costs and benefits by viewpoint, the comparison of health and safety measures in terms of their incremental cost per life-year (or quality-adjusted life-year) gained and the more frequent retrospective review and revision of the economic analyses that are undertaken.

  16. Cancer risk assessments and environmental regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scroggin, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Governmental regulation of toxic substances, such as carcinogens and radiation, prompts both legal and scientific controversies. Industry, environmental activist groups, government regulators, and the general public are all concerned with the question of how environmental risk to public health is to be measured and what level of risk warrants government action under the environmental laws. Several recent events shed light on the fundamental scientific and legal problems inherent in such regulation, and these events may affect the direction of future developments. These events include implementation of generic Risk Assessment Guidelines by the US EPA, litigation challenging EPA's regulation of carcinogenic substances, new scientific understanding of the relative risks from human exposure to natural and man-made sources, and the continuing growth of toxic tort litigation in which victims of cancer seek large damages from industrial emitters of pollution

  17. New approaches in human health risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abass, Khaled; Carlsen, Anders; Rautio, Arja

    2016-01-01

    Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009-2014; www.arcrisk.eu).

  18. New approaches in human health risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaled Abass

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies on the precise impact of environmental pollutants on human health are difficult to undertake and interpret, because many genetic and environmental factors influence health at the same time and to varying degrees. Our chapter in the AMAP report was based on new approaches to describe risks and future needs. In this paper, we will introduce the issues associated with risk assessment of single chemicals, and present suggestions for future studies as well as a summary of lessons learned during the health-related parts of the European Union-funded FP7 project ArcRisk (Arctic Health Risks: Impacts on health in the Arctic and Europe owing to climate-induced changes in contaminant cycling, 2009–2014; www.arcrisk.eu.

  19. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  20. Risk assessment in man and mouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balci, Fuat; Freestone, David; Gallistel, Charles R

    2009-02-17

    Human and mouse subjects tried to anticipate at which of 2 locations a reward would appear. On a randomly scheduled fraction of the trials, it appeared with a short latency at one location; on the complementary fraction, it appeared after a longer latency at the other location. Subjects of both species accurately assessed the exogenous uncertainty (the probability of a short versus a long trial) and the endogenous uncertainty (from the scalar variability in their estimates of an elapsed duration) to compute the optimal target latency for a switch from the short- to the long-latency location. The optimal latency was arrived at so rapidly that there was no reliably discernible improvement over trials. Under these nonverbal conditions, humans and mice accurately assess risks and behave nearly optimally. That this capacity is well-developed in the mouse opens up the possibility of a genetic approach to the neurobiological mechanisms underlying risk assessment.

  1. Quantitative risk assessment of digitalized safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Sung Min; Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hym Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Jun [UNIST, Ulasn (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    A report published by the U.S. National Research Council indicates that appropriate methods for assessing reliability are key to establishing the acceptability of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in safety-critical plants such as NPPs. Since the release of this issue, the methodology for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I and C systems has been studied. However, there is still no widely accepted method. Kang and Sung found three critical factors for safety assessment of digital systems: detection coverage of fault-tolerant techniques, software reliability quantification, and network communication risk. In reality the various factors composing digitalized I and C systems are not independent of each other but rather closely connected. Thus, from a macro point of view, a method that can integrate risk factors with different characteristics needs to be considered together with the micro approaches to address the challenges facing each factor.

  2. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  3. Comparison of seismic margin assessment and probabilistic risk assessment in seismic IPE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.; Kassawara, R.P.

    1993-01-01

    A comparison of technical requirements and managerial issues between seismic margin assessment (SMA) and seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) in a seismic Individual Plant Examination (IPE) is presented and related to requirements for an Unresolved Safety Issue (USI) A-46 review which is required for older nuclear power plants. Advantages and disadvantages are discussed for each approach. Technical requirements reviewed for a seismic IPE include: scope of plants covered, seismic input, scope of review, selection of equipment, required experience and training of engineers, walkdown procedure, evaluation of components, relay review, containment review, quality assurance, products, documentation requirements, and closure procedure. Managerial issues discussed include regulatory acceptability, compatibility with seismic IPE, compliance with seismic IPE requirements, ease of use by utilities, and relative cost

  4. Principle considerations for the risk assessment of sprayed consumer products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiling, W; Bascompta, M; Carthew, P; Catalano, G; Corea, N; D'Haese, A; Jackson, P; Kromidas, L; Meurice, P; Rothe, H; Singal, M

    2014-05-16

    In recent years, the official regulation of chemicals and chemical products has been intensified. Explicitly for spray products enhanced requirements to assess the consumers'/professionals' exposure to such product type have been introduced. In this regard the Aerosol-Dispensers-Directive (75/324/EEC) with obligation for marketing aerosol dispensers, and the Cosmetic-Products-Regulation (1223/2009/EC) which obliges the insurance of a safety assessment, have to be mentioned. Both enactments, similar to the REACH regulation (1907/2006/EC), require a robust chemical safety assessment. From such assessment, appropriate risk management measures may be identified to adequately control the risk of these chemicals/products to human health and the environment when used. Currently, the above-mentioned regulations lack the guidance on which data are needed for preparing a proper hazard analysis and safety assessment of spray products. Mandatory in the process of inhalation risk and safety assessment is the determination and quantification of the actual exposure to the spray product and more specifically, its ingredients. In this respect the current article, prepared by the European Aerosol Federation (FEA, Brussels) task force "Inhalation Toxicology", intends to introduce toxicological principles and the state of the art in currently available exposure models adapted for typical application scenarios. This review on current methodologies is intended to guide safety assessors to better estimate inhalation exposure by using the most relevant data. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  5. IAEA safety requirements for safety assessment of fuel cycle facilities and activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, G.

    2013-01-01

    The IAEA's Statute authorises the Agency to establish standards of safety for protection of health and minimisation of danger to life and property. In that respect, the IAEA has established a Safety Fundamentals publication which contains ten safety principles for ensuring the protection of workers, the public and the environment from the harmful effects of ionising radiation. A number of these principles require safety assessments to be carried out as a means of evaluating compliance with safety requirements for all nuclear facilities and activities and to determine the measures that need to be taken to ensure safety. The safety assessments are required to be carried out and documented by the organisation responsible for operating the facility or conducting the activity, are to be independently verified and are to be submitted to the regulatory body as part of the licensing or authorisation process. In addition to the principles of the Safety Fundamentals, the IAEA establishes requirements that must be met to ensure the protection of people and the environment and which are governed by the principles in the Safety Fundamentals. The IAEA's Safety Requirements publication 'Safety Assessment for Facilities and Activities', establishes the safety requirements that need to be fulfilled in conducting and maintaining safety assessments for the lifetime of facilities and activities, with specific attention to defence in depth and the requirement for a graded approach to the application of these safety requirements across the wide range of fuel cycle facilities and activities. Requirements for independent verification of the safety assessment that needs to be carried out by the operating organisation, including the requirement for the safety assessment to be periodically reviewed and updated are also covered. For many fuel cycle facilities and activities, environmental impact assessments and non-radiological risk assessments will be required. The

  6. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  7. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roger Skinner

    1992-01-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential

  8. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skinner, Roger

    1992-07-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential.

  9. A microbial identification framework for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernatchez, Stéphane; Anoop, Valar; Saikali, Zeina; Breton, Marie

    2018-06-01

    Micro-organisms are increasingly used in a variety of products for commercial uses, including cleaning products. Such microbial-based cleaning products (MBCP) are represented as a more environmentally-friendly alternative to chemically based cleaning products. The identity of the micro-organisms formulated into these products is often considered confidential business information and is not revealed or it is only partly revealed (i.e., identification to the genus, not to the species). That paucity of information complicates the evaluation of the risk associated with their use. The accurate taxonomic identification of those micro-organisms is important so that a suitable risk assessment of the products can be conducted. To alleviate difficulties associated with adequate identification of micro-organisms in MBCP and other products containing micro-organisms, a microbial identification framework for risk assessment (MIFRA) has been elaborated. It serves to provide guidance on a polyphasic tiered approach, combining the data obtained from the use of various methods (i.e., polyphasic approach) combined with the sequential selection of the methods (i.e., tiered) to achieve a satisfactory identity of the micro-organism to an acceptable taxonomic level. The MIFRA is suitable in various risk assessment contexts for micro-organisms used in any commercial product. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Quantitative risk assessment of drinking water contaminants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cothern, C.R.; Coniglio, W.A.; Marcus, W.L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of criteria and standards for the regulation of drinking water contaminants involves a variety of processes, one of which is risk estimation. This estimation process, called quantitative risk assessment, involves combining data on the occurrence of the contaminant in drinking water and its toxicity. The human exposure to a contaminant can be estimated from occurrence data. Usually the toxicity or number of health effects per concentration level is estimated from animal bioassay studies using the multistage model. For comparison, other models will be used including the Weibull, probit, logit and quadratic ones. Because exposure and toxicity data are generally incomplete, assumptions need to be made and this generally results in a wide range of certainty in the estimates. This range can be as wide as four to six orders of magnitude in the case of the volatile organic compounds in drinking water and a factor of four to five for estimation of risk due to radionuclides in drinking water. As examples of the differences encountered in risk assessment of drinking water contaminants, discussions are presented on benzene, lead, radon and alachlor. The lifetime population risk estimates for these contaminants are, respectively, in the ranges of: <1 - 3000, <1 - 8000, 2000-40,000 and <1 - 80. 11 references, 1 figure, 1 table

  11. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  12. A methodology for reviewing Probabilistic Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase. The value of this procedure comes from having a systematic framework for the PRA review. Practical constraints limit the time and qualified people needed for an adequate review. Having the established framework from this procedure as a starting point, reviewers can focus most of their attention on the accuracy and the completeness of the calculation. Time wasted at the start of the review is reduced by first using this procedure to sort through the technical details of the PRA and to reconstruct the risk estimate from dominant contributions

  13. Recent developments in carcinogenic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Murdoch, D.; Withey, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    In this paper, recent developments in the quantitative assessment of carcinogenic risks based on toxicological and epidemiological data are reviewed. In particular, model-free approaches to low-dose risk assessment which involve only the assumption of low-dose linearity are considered. Measures of carcinogenic potency which avoid the need to extrapolate to low doses are also described. The allometric bases for converting risk estimates between species are then discussed. Pharmacokinetic models for determining the dose delivered to the target tissue are examined, and the implications of using such models in extrapolating between doses, of exposure, and species are examined. The application of these concepts in chemical and radiation carcinogenesis is illustrated by means of brief case studies of methylene chloride and Rn. Biologically motivated cancer models based on the initiation-promotion-progression theory of carcinogenesis are discussed and compared with the classical multistage model. The estimation of risks with time-dependent exposure patterns is considered, and conditions under which the use of a time-weighted average dose is appropriate are identified. Finally, the estimation of carcinogenic risks posed by exposure to complex mixtures is explored. 92 references

  14. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  15. Karst risk assessment for engineering in Nizhny Novgorod region, Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tolmachev Vladimir

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Federal Standards of the Russian include the requirement of mandatory assessment of the risks induced by natural processes in order to make sure their values do not exceed acceptable limits. To meet the requirement a number of karst risk assessment methods have been developed for the regions of the country where the most significant hazard is presented by karst sinkholes. For this particular application karst risk is understood as specific probability of sinkhole development on a unit area per a unit time span with account of probable economic, social and environmental components of damage. The probability of sinkhole development is evaluated by specialists in engineering karstology and designers. They make use of the acceptable data on the environmental conditions and apply stochastic laws of sinkhole development in time and space, alongside with focusing on all other relevant specificity of the building or facility to be built. Acceptable limits of karst risks should be specified by a multidisciplinary team including designers, lawyers, economists, insurers, environmentalists, engineering karstologists and other specialists on the basis of their expert knowledge. It has been demonstrated that a ratio between predicted and acceptable karst risk values can serve a practically meaningful karst risk level indicator for the purposes of building on karst. This ratio can be used with a rather high degree of objectiveness to develop a programme of antikarst activities during both facilities construction and operation.

  16. Landslide risk assessment of a slope in Tijuana city, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldo Onel Oliva González

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Risk reduction and prevention of disasters events produced by landslides on urban slopes, requires an integral assessment considering conditioning and triggering natural and human factors. Such an assessment is a valuable prevention and mitigation tool for communities under risk and also for authorities involved in the process. Method: In this research, a general methodology for the assessment of landslides on an urban slope was studied and applied, considering the relationship between hazard and physical vulnerability in the zone of study. Hazard was determined by probabilistic methods, whereas vulnerability of the exposed elements was obtained taking into account two kinds of buildings and their spatial distribution, their structural integrity state, their foundation depth and the unstable terrain probable mass volume. Results: Safety factors were obtained under allowable levels to warrant stability of the slope under study, and valuation factors of the qualitative analysis indicate that the slope is unstable and that requires urgent maintenance. This confirms and validates the high probability of occurrence in the zone, obtained from historic records. Conclusions: It was found that landslide risk in the slope is high due to the high probability of its occurrence, with three possible movement directions that may impact on several buildings located in the zone. Assessment constitutes a work tool for institutions and authorities related with risk reduction due to landslides, as a way of prevent and mitigate disaster prone events.

  17. Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

    2018-03-01

    Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

  18. Development and evaluation of an automated fall risk assessment system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ju Young; Jin, Yinji; Piao, Jinshi; Lee, Sun-Mi

    2016-04-01

    Fall risk assessment is the first step toward prevention, and a risk assessment tool with high validity should be used. This study aimed to develop and validate an automated fall risk assessment system (Auto-FallRAS) to assess fall risks based on electronic medical records (EMRs) without additional data collected or entered by nurses. This study was conducted in a 1335-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. The Auto-FallRAS was developed using 4211 fall-related clinical data extracted from EMRs. Participants included fall patients and non-fall patients (868 and 3472 for the development study; 752 and 3008 for the validation study; and 58 and 232 for validation after clinical application, respectively). The system was evaluated for predictive validity and concurrent validity. The final 10 predictors were included in the logistic regression model for the risk-scoring algorithm. The results of the Auto-FallRAS were shown as high/moderate/low risk on the EMR screen. The predictive validity analyzed after clinical application of the Auto-FallRAS was as follows: sensitivity = 0.95, NPV = 0.97 and Youden index = 0.44. The validity of the Morse Fall Scale assessed by nurses was as follows: sensitivity = 0.68, NPV = 0.88 and Youden index = 0.28. This study found that the Auto-FallRAS results were better than were the nurses' predictions. The advantage of the Auto-FallRAS is that it automatically analyzes information and shows patients' fall risk assessment results without requiring additional time from nurses. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  19. A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

    CERN Document Server

    Kent, A

    2004-01-01

    Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

  20. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, W.C.

    1984-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

  1. Assessing the Environmental Risks of Nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Baun, Anders

    to a wide range of technical limitations. For instance, serious knowledge gaps remain within e.g. the detection of NM in the environment, developing adequate testing equipment and protocols, and toxicity endpoints (Grieger et al., 2009). In the past few years, many scientists and organizations have...... considered. Furthermore, we recommend the use of biomonitoring in some environmental ‘hot spots’ to serve as early warning detectors while the field of NM environmental risk assessment matures, as recommended in our previous work. Ultimately, this analysis may aid the advancement of environmental risk...

  2. A risk assessment of the SAFR plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutherford, P.D.; Mills, J.C.; Lancet, R.T.; Nourjah, P.

    1987-01-01

    The Sodium Advanced Fast Reactor (SAFR) is a modular, advanced concept, Liquid Metal Reactor (LMR), funded by the U.S., and designed by Rockwell International, Bechtel Corporation, and Combustion Engineering. SAFR utilizes the inherently safe features of small fast reactors, including natural convection decay heat removal systems, a self-actuated shutdown system (SASS) and inherent core response to design basis events without scram including transient overpower (TOP), loss of flow (LOF), and loss of heat sink (LOHS) events. A Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed which demonstrates considerable reduction in plant and public risk compared to current commercial reactors. (orig./HSCH)

  3. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haigh, R [Industrial Medicine and Hygiene Unit Health and Safety Directorate, Directorate-General Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs Commission of the European Communities, Luxembourg (Luxembourg)

    1992-07-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live{exclamation_point} The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die{exclamation_point}. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk

  4. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haigh, R.

    1992-01-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live! The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die!. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk assessment in one country alone or to

  5. Ionizing radiation risk assessment, BEIR IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-10-01

    This report of the Subpanel discusses the potential impact on Federal agencies and indicates individual risk factors that could be used by them in risk assessment. The approach used in this CIRRPC report was to consider the risk factors presented in BEIR IV for each radionuclide (or group radioelements) and to make some judgments regarding their validity and/or the uncertainties involved. The coverage of Radon-222 and its progeny dominated the BEIR IV report and this Subpanel felt is was proper to devote more attention to this radionuclide family. This risk factor presented in BEIR IV for radon is 350 cancer deaths per million person-working level months (WLM) of exposure for a lifetime. There is a range of opinions on the conversion from WLM to absorbed dose. As discussed in the text, the use of the WLM concept makes it difficult or infeasible to compare the risk factor for radon with that of other radionuclides which are based on organ dose. This report also includes a discussion of certain fundamental scientific and operational issues that may have decisive effect upon risk factor selection. These adjunct items are dealt with under separate headings and include discussions of threshold dose considerations, extrapolation to low doses, and age at exposure

  6. Risk based maintenance: Resource requirements and organizational challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weerakkody, S.D.

    2000-01-01

    10CFR50.65 'Requirements for Monitoring the Effectiveness of Maintenance at Nuclear Power Plants' required licensees to monitor the performance or condition of structures, systems, or components (SSCs) against licensee established goals, in a manner sufficient to provide reasonable assurance that such SSCs are capable of fulfilling their intended functions. The goals were required to be commensurate with safety significance and operating experience. Northeast Utilities relied upon PRAs to implement 10CFR50.65, which is also referred to as the 'Maintenance Rule'. The Maintenance Rule changed some aspects of maintenance of structures, systems, and components (SSC) at nuclear power plants. One objective of the rule was to focus the maintenance resources based on risk significance of components. This paper will discuss the organizational challenges and resource requirements associated with implementation of the Maintenance Rule at nuclear facilities that are supported by the Northeast Utilities Services Company (NUSCo). The paper will discuss (a) how these challenges were addressed, (b) the resources required for ongoing efforts to support the Maintenance Rule, and (c) several key safety benefits derived from the implementation of the Maintenance Rule. (author)

  7. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  8. Risk measures in living probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.; Niemelae, I.

    1993-05-01

    The main objectives of the study are: to define risk measures and suggested uses of them in various living PSA applications for the operational safety management and to describe specific model features required for living PSA applications. The report is based on three case studies performed within the Nordic research project Safety Evaluation by Use of Living PSA and Safety Indicators. (48 refs., 11 figs., 17 tabs.)

  9. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  10. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  11. Information Uncertainty to Compare Qualitative Reasoning Security Risk Assessment Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    The security risk associated with malevolent acts such as those of terrorism are often void of the historical data required for a traditional PRA. Most information available to conduct security risk assessments for these malevolent acts is obtained from subject matter experts as subjective judgements. Qualitative reasoning approaches such as approximate reasoning and evidential reasoning are useful for modeling the predicted risk from information provided by subject matter experts. Absent from these approaches is a consistent means to compare the security risk assessment results. Associated with each predicted risk reasoning result is a quantifiable amount of information uncertainty which can be measured and used to compare the results. This paper explores using entropy measures to quantify the information uncertainty associated with conflict and non-specificity in the predicted reasoning results. The measured quantities of conflict and non-specificity can ultimately be used to compare qualitative reasoning results which are important in triage studies and ultimately resource allocation. Straight forward extensions of previous entropy measures are presented here to quantify the non-specificity and conflict associated with security risk assessment results obtained from qualitative reasoning models.

  12. A perspective of PC-based probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Robinson, R.C.; Russell, K.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information has been under-utilized in the past due to the large effort required to input the PRA data and the large expense of the computers needed to run PRA codes. The microcomputer-based Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) and the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System, under development at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, have greatly enhanced the ability of managers to use PRA techniques in their decision-making. IRRAS is a tool that allows an analyst to create, modify, update, and reanalyze a plant PRA to keep the risk assessment current with the plant's configuration and operation. The SARA system is used to perform sensitivity studies on the results of a PRA. This type of analysis can be used to evaluate proposed changes to a plant or its operation. The success of these two software projects demonstrate that risk information can be made readily available to those that need it. This is the first step in the development of a true risk management capability

  13. Environmental carcinogenic agents and cancer prevention. Risk assessment and management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2013-01-01

    Many agents in our environment have been established as being carcinogenic, and in most cases, the carcinogenic properties of these agents were identified because of high-dose occupational or accidental exposure. Risk characterization, taking into account the dose-response relationship, and exposure assessment are essential for risk assessment and subsequent cancer prevention. Based on scientific risk assessment, risk management should be conducted practically by considering the economic, social, political, and other technical issues and by balancing the risks and benefits. Asbestos and environmental tobacco smoke are typical examples of established carcinogenic agents in the general environment, contributing to low-dose exposure. Further epidemiological studies are required to investigate the carcinogenicity of low-dose exposure to known carcinogenic agents such as arsenic and cadmium through dietary intake, radiation via medical and natural exposure, and air pollution due to diesel exhaust. In contrast, occupational chemical exposure to 1,2-dichloropropane and/or dichloromethane, whose carcinogenicity had not been established, was suggested to cause cholangiocarcinoma among workers involved in offset color proof-printing only after a rare situation of high-dose exposure was unveiled. Continuous monitoring of unusual cancer occurrences in target populations such as workers in occupational and regional settings as well as exposure reduction to suspected carcinogenic agents to levels as low as reasonably achievable is essential for reducing the risk of cancer due to environmental carcinogens. (author)

  14. Progress in violence risk assessment and communication: hypothesis versus evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E

    2015-02-01

    We draw a distinction between hypothesis and evidence with respect to the assessment and communication of the risk of violent recidivism. We suggest that some authorities in the field have proposed quite valid and reasonable hypotheses with respect to several issues. Among these are the following: that accuracy will be improved by the adjustment or moderation of numerical scores based on clinical opinions about rare risk factors or other considerations pertaining to the applicability to the case at hand; that there is something fundamentally distinct about protective factors so that they are not merely the obverse of risk factors, such that optimal accuracy cannot be achieved without consideration of such protective factors; and that assessment of dynamic factors is required for optimal accuracy and furthermore interventions aimed at such dynamic factors can be expected to cause reductions in violence risk. We suggest here that, while these are generally reasonable hypotheses, they have been inappropriately presented to practitioners as empirically supported facts, and that practitioners' assessment and communication about violence risk run beyond that supported by the available evidence as a result. We further suggest that this represents harm, especially in impeding scientific progress. Nothing here justifies stasis or simply surrendering to authoritarian custody with somatic treatment. Theoretically motivated and clearly articulated assessment and intervention should be provided for offenders, but in a manner that moves the field more firmly from hypotheses to evidence. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Safety assessment requirements for onsite transfers of radioactive material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Opperman, E.K.; Jackson, E.J.; Eggers, A.G.

    1992-05-01

    This document contains the requirements for developing a safety assessment document for an onsite package containing radioactive material. It also provides format and content guidance to establish uniformity in the safety assessment documentation and to ensure completeness of the information provided

  16. Aquatic risk assessment of the new rice herbicide profoxydim

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez, Paloma [Laboratory for Ecotoxicology, Department of the Environment, INIA, Crta De La Coruna Km 7, 28040 Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: arguello@inia.es; Kubitza, Johanna [BASF-AG, Agricultural Center Limburgerhof, P.O. Box 120, D-67114 Limburgerhof (Germany); Peter Dohmen, G. [BASF-AG, Agricultural Center Limburgerhof, P.O. Box 120, D-67114 Limburgerhof (Germany); Tarazona, Jose V. [Laboratory for Ecotoxicology, Department of the Environment, INIA, Crta De La Coruna Km 7, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2006-07-15

    A tiered protocol for assessing ecological risks has been applied to the rice pesticide profoxydim. The initial assessment (Tier I) was based on toxicity exposure ratio (TER) calculations based on laboratory data using a worst-case rice scenario. The first refinement (Tier II) was based on direct toxicity assessment (DTA) of water samples collected during a field-mesocosm study. Finally, a higher-tier assessment on the in situ assessment of paddy community responses (field-mesocosm-Tier III) was performed. A successive application of three pesticides, the herbicides azimsulfuron, propanil and the insecticide malathion, was used as reference controls. The refined assessments indicated a lower risk than that predicted from TER estimations. DTA-based Tier II showed toxicity effects only for concentrations above the recommended dose of profoxydim. Effects for reference controls were observed in DTA which were not expected from Tier I. The field-mesocosm study confirmed these effects but also showed that they were transient and of low relevance. - Risk refinement assessment of rice pesticides starting with DTA and moving to community studies is a cost-effective approach, only if required.

  17. Aquatic risk assessment of the new rice herbicide profoxydim

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez, Paloma; Kubitza, Johanna; Peter Dohmen, G.; Tarazona, Jose V.

    2006-01-01

    A tiered protocol for assessing ecological risks has been applied to the rice pesticide profoxydim. The initial assessment (Tier I) was based on toxicity exposure ratio (TER) calculations based on laboratory data using a worst-case rice scenario. The first refinement (Tier II) was based on direct toxicity assessment (DTA) of water samples collected during a field-mesocosm study. Finally, a higher-tier assessment on the in situ assessment of paddy community responses (field-mesocosm-Tier III) was performed. A successive application of three pesticides, the herbicides azimsulfuron, propanil and the insecticide malathion, was used as reference controls. The refined assessments indicated a lower risk than that predicted from TER estimations. DTA-based Tier II showed toxicity effects only for concentrations above the recommended dose of profoxydim. Effects for reference controls were observed in DTA which were not expected from Tier I. The field-mesocosm study confirmed these effects but also showed that they were transient and of low relevance. - Risk refinement assessment of rice pesticides starting with DTA and moving to community studies is a cost-effective approach, only if required

  18. Health risk assessment for program managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jump, R.A.; Williamson, D.S.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents the findings of a sensitivity analysis into the independent variables that determine the levels of health risks posed by buried plutonium and americium at a typical contaminated site in an arid region. Environmental Restoration Program Managers often must make decisions concerning cleanup levels, remediation alternatives, schedules, cost estimates, etc. based upon extraordinarily safe assumptions about risk assessment calculation inputs. This study reveals to the Program Manager which variables are major drivers to the calculated levels of risk posed by transuranic radionuclides and which ones have second order effects or less. The findings of this study should indicate which inputs should be the focus of attention during negotiations with regulators and of further empirical investigation

  19. Assessing the risk of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letourneau, E.G.; McCullough, R.S.; Meyerhof, D.P.; Somers, E.; Waight, P.J.

    1981-01-01

    The current concern with diminishing supplies of non-renewable energy has brought into clearer focus the debate on the future of nuclear energy. Application of the risk assessment process to the biological effects of radiation is considered worthwhile so that the nature and order of the hazards entailed can be appreciated in the total context of the problem. The derivation of regulations and the process of cost-risk-benefit analysis are also discussed. In view of the widespread public concern and, on occasion, apprehension about the development of nuclear energy it has been thought useful to tabulate the elements of this concern so as to gain a fuller understanding of the manner in which the public perceives and weighs risks. (author)

  20. Risk assessment of topically applied products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søborg, Tue; Basse, Line Hollesen; Halling-Sørensen, Bent

    2007-01-01

    The human risk of harmful substances in semisolid topical dosage forms applied topically to normal skin and broken skin, respectively, was assessed. Bisphenol A diglycidyl ether (BADGE) and three derivatives of BADGE previously quantified in aqueous cream and the UV filters 3-BC and 4-MBC were used...... as model compounds. Tolerable daily intake (TDI) values have been established for BADGE and derivatives. Endocrine disruption was chosen as endpoint for 3-BC and 4-MBC. Skin permeation of the model compounds was investigated in vitro using pig skin membranes. Tape stripping was applied to simulate broken...... parameters for estimating the risk. The immediate human risk of BADGE and derivatives in topical dosage forms was found to be low. However, local treatment of broken skin may lead to higher exposure of BADGE and derivatives compared to application to normal skin. 3-BC permeated skin at higher flux than 4-MBC...