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Sample records for risk assessment methods

  1. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  2. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  3. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  4. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  5. A classification scheme for risk assessment methods.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamp, Jason Edwin; Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2004-08-01

    This report presents a classification scheme for risk assessment methods. This scheme, like all classification schemes, provides meaning by imposing a structure that identifies relationships. Our scheme is based on two orthogonal aspects--level of detail, and approach. The resulting structure is shown in Table 1 and is explained in the body of the report. Each cell in the Table represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. This report imposes structure on the set of risk assessment methods in order to reveal their relationships and thus optimize their usage.We present a two-dimensional structure in the form of a matrix, using three abstraction levels for the rows and three approaches for the columns. For each of the nine cells in the matrix we identify the method type by name and example. The matrix helps the user understand: (1) what to expect from a given method, (2) how it relates to other methods, and (3) how best to use it. Each cell in the matrix represent a different arrangement of strengths and weaknesses. Those arrangements shift gradually as one moves through the table, each cell optimal for a particular situation. The intention of this report is to enable informed use of the methods so that a method chosen is optimal for a situation given. The matrix, with type names in the cells, is introduced in Table 2 on page 13 below. Unless otherwise stated we use the word 'method' in this report to refer to a 'risk assessment method', though often times we use the full phrase. The use of the terms 'risk assessment' and 'risk management' are close enough that we do not attempt to distinguish them in this report. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. In

  6. Ergonomic risk assessment by REBA method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hassanzadeh

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims   Awkward posture has been recognized as one of the important risk factors of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSD. The current study aimed at determining ergonomic risk level, WMSDs ratio and exploring working postures contribution to WMSD. During the study, working postures were phased and then they were scored using the REBAtool from observing the work.   Methods   To perform the study, workers of a home appliances manufacturing factory were  assessed. In order to collecting required data, each part of the body was scored and work frequency,  load/force, coupling were considered to achieve a REBA score. Nordic Questionnaire was used  to determining WMSD ratio and its relationship whit REBA score. 231 working phases were  assessed and 13761 questions using Nordic Questionnaire were answered. Percentage of the workers in press, spot welding, grinding, cutting, assembling, and painting was 15.8, 21.6, 25.9, 34.5, 89.9%, respectively. Workers were 18-54 years old and their work recording average was 52  month.   Results   REBAscore was 4-13 in under study tasks. REBA score = 9 had the most frequency  (20% and REBA score =13 had the least frequency (1.4%. Risk level in press, cutting, and  painting was high (25.5, 100, 68.2% cases. This shows that cutting has the highest risk level. On the other hand 38.5% of the workers in past 12 month had problem in different parts of their body. Totally 11.7% of the workers had problem in neck, 19.4$ in leg, 10.7% in foot, 82.5% in lower back,  87.6% in upper back and 7.8% in shoulders.10.7% of the workers had previous illness that 8.7%  of them were non occupational and 1.9% were caused their previous jobs. The REBAscore mean  and ergonomic risk level is not equal in tasks (p-value0. Action level was necessary  soon in others.   Conclusion   Risk level should be reduced specially in cutting. The heavy workload and  working height poor design, awkward

  7. Methods to Quantify Uncertainty in Human Health Risk Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aurelius, Lea

    1998-01-01

    ...) and other health professionals, such as the Bioenviroumental Engineer, to identify the appropriate use of probabilistic techniques for a site, and the methods by which probabilistic risk assessment...

  8. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

  9. Assessing risk of draft survey by AHP method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guangcheng; Zhao, Kuimin; Zuo, Zhaoying; Liu, Gang; Jian, Binguo; Lin, Yan; Fan, Yukun; Wang, Fei

    2018-04-01

    The paper assesses the risks of vessel floating in the seawater for draft survey by using the analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, the paper established draft survey risk index from the view of draft reading, ballast water, fresh water, and calculation process and so on. Then the paper proposes the method to deal with risk assessment using one concrete sample.

  10. Risk assessment methods for life cycle costing in buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oduyemi Olufolahan

    2016-01-01

    Originality/value. This paper contributes with new outlooks aimed at assessing the current level of awareness, usage and advocated benefits of risk assessment methods in LCC and adds to the limited empirical studies on risk assessment to corporate occupants and decision makers.

  11. Methods of assessing nuclear power plant risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skvarka, P.; Kovacz, Z.

    1985-01-01

    The concept of safety evalution is based on safety criteria -standards or set qualitative values of parameters and indices used in designing nuclear power plants, incorporating demands on the quality of equipment and operation of the plant, its siting and technical means for achieving nuclear safety. The concepts are presented of basic and optimal risk values. Factors are summed up indispensable for the evaluation of the nuclear power plant risk and the present world trend of evaluation based on probability is discussed. (J.C.)

  12. Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovilė Peškauskaitė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

  13. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  14. OPERATIONAL RISK IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS: TAXONOMY AND ASSESSMENT METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinoiu Ana Maria

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at presenting the classifications and the assessment methods for operational risk according to international regulations (ie. Basel 2, in the context of its importance as a managerial tool for international business. Considering the growin

  15. Risk and dose assessment methods in gamma knife QA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, W.W.; Jones, E.D.; Rathbun, P.

    1992-10-01

    Traditional methods used in assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing medical radiation risks. The typical philosophy used in assessing nuclear reactor risks is machine dominated with only secondary attention paid to the human component, and only after critical machine failure events have been identified. In assessing the risk of a misadministrative radiation dose to patients, the primary source of failures seems to stem overwhelmingly, from the actions of people and only secondarily from machine mode failures. In essence, certain medical misadministrations are dominated by human events not machine failures. Radiological medical devices such as the Leksell Gamma Knife are very simple in design, have few moving parts, and are relatively free from the risks of wear when compared with a nuclear power plant. Since there are major technical differences between a gamma knife and a nuclear power plant, one must select a particular risk assessment method which is sensitive to these system differences and tailored to the unique medical aspects of the phenomena under study. These differences also generate major shifts in the philosophy and assumptions which drive the risk assessment (Machine-centered vs Person-centered) method. We were prompted by these basic differences to develop a person-centered approach to risk assessment which would reflect these basic philosophical and technological differences, have the necessary resolution in its metrics, and be highly reliable (repeatable). The risk approach chosen by the Livermore investigative team has been called the ''Relative Risk Profile Method'' and has been described in detail by Banks and Paramore, (1983)

  16. Methods of assessment and management of enterprise risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Kiseleva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the actual topic of our time – the management of business risks. An integral part of professional risk management is to identify the nature of the object of management in the sphere of economy. Since the domestic theory of risk management is under development, the problem of a clear comprehensive definition of risk becomes now of particular relevance. The article discusses the basic concepts of risk management; studied its components in the business activities; reflected system and risk management principles; The basic types of risks in business. A organizational and economic mechanism of enterprise risk assessment. Practical advice on risk management. Entrepreneurship without risk does not exist. With the development of market economy the specific entrepreneur determines the methods that will work, and they all lead to entrepreneurial risks. The level of threats on the market today, above the level of potential profits. It is concluded that it is impossible to increase revenue without increasing the risk or reduce risk without reducing income. The lower range of the probability distribution of expected returns relative to its mean value, the lower the risk associated with this operation. Avoid risk in business is almost impossible, but you can reduce this risk. And it depends on how professionally and correctly operates the entrepreneur, what kind of strategy he will choose to reduce the appearance of risk.

  17. Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center (ERASC) announced the release of the final report entitled, Assessment of Methods for Estimating Risk to Birds from Ingestion of Contaminated Grit Particles. This report evaluates approaches for estimating the probability of ingestion by birds of contaminated particles such as pesticide granules or lead particles (i.e. shot or bullet fragments). In addition, it presents an approach for using this information to estimate the risk of mortality to birds from ingestion of lead particles. Response to ERASC Request #16

  18. Analysis of risk assessment methods for goods trucking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunyazova A.O.

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available the article considers models of risk assessment that can be applied to cargo transportation, for forecasting possible damage in the form of financial and material costs in order to reduce the percentage of probability of their occurrence. The analysis of risk by the method «Criterion. Event. Rule" is represented. This method is based on the collection of information by various methods, assigning an assessment to the identified risks, ranking and formulating a report on the analysis. It can be carried out as a fully manual mechanical method of information collecting and performing calculations or can be brought to an automated level from data collection to the delivery of finished results (but in this case some nuances that could significantly influence the outcome of the analysis can be ignored. The expert method is of particular importance, since it relies directly on human experience. In this case, a special role is played by the human factor. The collection of information and the assigned assessments to risk groups depend on the extent to which experts agree on this issue. The smaller the fluctuations in the values ​​of the estimates of the experts, the more accurate and optimal the results will be.

  19. Development of environmental risk assessment framework using index method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.W.; Wu, Y.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents a newly developed framework for assessing the risk from events which are considered to be major accidents to the environment according to the classifications by the United Kingdom Department of Environment (DoE). The application of an environmental risk assessment framework using the newly developed index method is demonstrated by means of a case study. The framework makes use of Environmental Hazard Index (EHI) method by the United Kingdom AEA Technology for releases to river, but improves it by taking account to toxic dose rather than concentration; taking account of long-term effects including persistence and bio accumulation, not just short term effects; extending the method to all aspects of environment, not just rivers; and allowing account to be taken of design changes to mitigate the risk. The development of the framework has also led to a revision of the tolerability criteria to be used with the framework proposed earlier by weakness and recommend further work to improve this newly proposed environmental risk assessment framework. From the study, it is recommended that the environmental risk assessment framework be applied to a wide range of other case studies in order to further improve it. The framework should be modified to maintain consistency when the DoE revises its definitions of major accidents to the environment. Ease-of-use of the framework (and any other environmental framework) would be aided by the compilation of databases for environmental toxicity, river data and available consequence models. Further work could also be done to suggest methods of mitigating the risk and including them as numerical factors within method. (author)

  20. Screening-Level Ecological Risk Assessment Methods, Revision 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirenda, Richard J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2012-08-16

    This document provides guidance for screening-level assessments of potential adverse impacts to ecological resources from release of environmental contaminants at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory). The methods presented are based on two objectives, namely: to provide a basis for reaching consensus with regulators, managers, and other interested parties on how to conduct screening-level ecological risk investigations at the Laboratory; and to provide guidance for ecological risk assessors under the Environmental Programs (EP) Directorate. This guidance promotes consistency, rigor, and defensibility in ecological screening investigations and in reporting those investigation results. The purpose of the screening assessment is to provide information to the risk managers so informed riskmanagement decisions can be made. This document provides examples of recommendations and possible risk-management strategies.

  1. Development of fire risk assessment method caused by earthquake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitomo, Nobuo; Matsukura, Hiroshi; Matsuoka, Takeshi; Suzuki, Kazutaka

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to establish the assessment method of the risk of the multiple fires caused by earthquake, in the framework of PSA. In order to establish this method, we have settled four tasks and started a five years research project in 1999 for five years. These results will be useful for not only nuclear power plants but also chemical plants, traffic systems etc. (author)

  2. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  3. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  4. A comparison of radiological risk assessment methods for environmental restoration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Peterson, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    Evaluation of risks to human health from exposure to ionizing radiation at radioactively contaminated sites is an integral part of the decision-making process for determining the need for remediation and selecting remedial actions that may be required. At sites regulated under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), a target risk range of 10 -4 to 10 -6 incremental cancer incidence over a lifetime is specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as generally acceptable, based on the reasonable maximum exposure to any individual under current and future land use scenarios. Two primary methods currently being used in conducting radiological risk assessments at CERCLA sites are compared in this analysis. Under the first method, the radiation dose equivalent (i.e., Sv or rem) to the receptors of interest over the appropriate period of exposure is estimated and multiplied by a risk factor (cancer risk/Sv). Alternatively, incremental cancer risk can be estimated by combining the EPA's cancer slope factors (previously termed potency factors) for radionuclides with estimates of radionuclide intake by ingestion and inhalation, as well as radionuclide concentrations in soil that contribute to external dose. The comparison of the two methods has demonstrated that resulting estimates of lifetime incremental cancer risk under these different methods may differ significantly, even when all other exposure assumptions are held constant, with the magnitude of the discrepancy depending upon the dominant radionuclides and exposure pathways for the site. The basis for these discrepancies, the advantages and disadvantages of each method, and the significance of the discrepant results for environmental restoration decisions are presented

  5. Risk Assessment of Healthcare Waste by Preliminary Hazard Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouran Morovati

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: Improper management of healthcare waste (HCW can pose considerable risks to human health and the environment and cause serious problems in developing countries such as Iran. In this study, we sought to determine the hazards of HCW in the public hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine using the preliminary hazard analysis (PHA method. Methods: In this descriptive and analytic study, health risk assessment of HCW in government hospitals affiliated to Abadan School of Medicine (4 public hospitals was carried out by using PHA in the summer of  2016. Results: We noted the high risk of sharps and infectious wastes. Considering the dual risk of injury and disease transmission, sharps were classified in the very high-risk group, and pharmaceutical and chemical and radioactive wastes were classified in the medium-risk group. Sharps posed the highest risk, while pharmaceutical and chemical wastes had the lowest risk. Among the various stages of waste management, the waste treatment stage was the most hazardous in all the studied hospitals. Conclusion: To diminish the risks associated with healthcare waste management in the studied hospitals, adequate training of healthcare workers and care providers, provision of suitable personal protective and transportation equipment, and supervision of the environmental health manager of hospitals should be considered by the authorities.  

  6. Survey and evaluation of aging risk assessment methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanzo, D.; Kvam, P.; Apostolakis, G.; Wu, J.; Milici, T.; Ghoniem, N.; Guarro, S.

    1994-11-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated the nuclear power plant aging research program about 6 years ago to gather information about nuclear power plant aging. Since then, this program has collected a significant amount of information, largely qualitative, on plant aging and its potential effects on plant safety. However, this body of knowledge has not yet been integrated into formalisms that can be used effectively and systematically to assess plant risk resulting from aging, although models for assessing the effect of increasing failure rates on core damage frequency have been proposed. This report surveys the work on the aging of systems, structures, and components (SSCs) of nuclear power plants, as well as associated data bases. We take a critical look at the need to revise probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) so that they will include the contribution to risk from plant aging, the adequacy of existing methods for evaluating this contribution, and the adequacy of the data that have been used in these evaluation methods. We identify a preliminary framework for integrating the aging of SSCs into the PRA and include the identification of necessary data for such an integration

  7. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  8. FIFRA Peer Review: Proposed Risk Assessment Methods Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    From September 11-14, 2012, EPA participated in a Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act Scientific Advisory Panel (SAP) meeting on a proposed pollinator risk assessment framework for determining the potential risks of pesticides to honey bees.

  9. Internal dosimetry hazard and risk assessments: methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, G.A.

    2006-01-01

    Routine internal dose exposures are typically (in the UK nuclear industry) less than external dose exposures: however, the costs of internal dosimetry monitoring programmes can be significantly greater than those for external dosimetry. For this reason decisions on when to apply routine monitoring programmes, and the nature of these programmes, can be more critical than for external dosimetry programmes. This paper describes various methods for performing hazard and risk assessments which are being developed by RWE NUKEM Limited Approved Dosimetry Services to provide an indication when routine internal dosimetry monitoring should be considered. (author)

  10. A New Method for Spatial Health Risk Assessment of Pollutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Sakizadeh*

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: The area of contaminated lands exposed to the health risk of environmental pollutants is a matter of argument. In this study, a new method was developed to estimate the amount of area that is exposed to higher than normal levels of Cr, Mn, and V. Methods: Overall, 170 soil samples were collected from the upper 10 cm of soil in an arid area in central part of Iran in Semnan Province. The values of Cr, Mn, and V were detected by ICP-OES technique. A geostatistical method known as sequential Gaussian co-simulation was applied to consider the spatial risk of these toxic elements. Results: The moderate spatial dependence of Cr indicates the contribution of both intrinsic and extrinsic factor to the levels of this heavy metal in the study area, whereas, Mn and V can be attributed to intrinsic factors (such as lithology. There has not been any significant influence due to agricultural practices on the Cr values in the region. The surface of contaminated area for manganese, produced by risk curve on surface method, was higher than chromium and vanadium. Conclusion: The produced risk curves as rendered in this study can be adopted in similar studies to help managers to estimate the total area that requires cleanup action.

  11. A field study comparing two methods of transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harmon, M.F.; Brey, R.R.; Gesell, T.F.; Oberg, S.G.

    1996-01-01

    RADTRAN 4 is a computer code used for; assessing risks associated with the transportation of nuclear materials. The code employs the common modeling practice of using default values for input variables to simplify the modeling of complex scenarios, thus producing conservative final risk determinations. To better address local public concerns it is of interest to quantify the introduced conservatism by taking a site-specific approach to radiation risk assessment. With RISKIND, incident-free and accident condition doses were calculated for two suburban population groups using both default input parameters; and site-specific values to describe population demographics of regions in Pocatello, Idaho, along the I-15 corridor. The use of site-specific parameters resulted in incident-free doses ranging from the same order of magnitude to one order of magnitude less than the doses calculated with default input parameters. Correcting accident condition doses for the age distribution of the populations and employing site-specific weather data resulted in doses 1.1 times lower than estimated using default input parameters. Dose-risks calculated with RISKIND for the two population groups using site-specific data were of the same order of magnitude as the risk calculated using RADTRAN 4 for the suburban population described in DOE/EIS-0203-D. This study revealed in one specific application that use of default and site-specific parameters resulted in comparable dose estimates. If this tendency were to hold generally true over other environments and model variables, then risk assessors might prefer to select codes on the basis of criteria such as (1) the number of variables to select from; (2) ability to calculate consequences directly, and (3) outputs geared to addressing public concerns

  12. Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

    2013-01-01

    The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

  13. Current methods in risk assessment of genotoxic chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartus, Alexander; Schrenk, Dieter

    2017-08-01

    Chemical contaminants and residues are undesired chemicals occurring in consumer products such as food and drugs, at the workplace and in the environment, i.e. in air, soil and water. These compounds can be detected even at very low concentrations and lead frequently to considerable concerns among consumers and in the media. Thus it is a major challenge for modern toxicology to provide transparent and versatile tools for the risk assessment of such compounds in particular with respect to human health. Well-known examples of toxic contaminants are dioxins or mercury (in the environment), mycotoxins (from infections by molds) or acrylamide (from thermal treatment of food). The process of toxicological risk assessment of such chemicals is based on i) the knowledge of their contents in food, air, water etc., ii) the routes and extent of exposure of humans, iii) the toxicological properties of the compound, and, iv) its mode(s) of action. In this process quantitative dose-response relationships, usually in experimental animals, are of outstanding importance. For a successful risk assessment, in particular of genotoxic chemicals, several conditions and models such as the Margin of Exposure (MoE) approach or the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) concept exist, which will be discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  15. Methods for comparative risk assessment of different energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-10-01

    The environmental and health aspects of different energy systems, particularly those associated with the generation of electricity, are emerging as significant issues for policy formulation and implementation. This, together with the growing need of many countries to define their energy programmes for the next century, has provided the basis for a renewed interest in the comparative risk assessment of different energy sources (fossil, nuclear, renewables). This document is the outcome of a Specialists Meeting on the procedural and methodological issues associated with comparative health and environmental risks of different energy sources. After an introductory chapter outlining the issues under consideration the papers presented at the Meeting, which have been indexed separately, are given. Refs, figs and tabs

  16. Usability of the Upper Limb Risk Assessment (UPLIRA Method for Assessing the Risk Factors of Upper Limb Disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abd Razak Noor Syafiqa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available It is important to design ergonomic methods or assessment with a high usability and good ergonomic features, so the method is easily adaptable to the task and the workplace environment. Usability is a measurement on how well the user can use that functionality. The study converged on testing the usability of the new tools for assessing ULDs namely as Upper Limb Risk Assessment (UPLIRA. The UPLIRA method was evaluated by 6 students (3 undergraduate students and 3 postgraduates students from University Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia (UTHM who are conducting research in ergonomic. From the feedback survey of UPLIRA method, the observers agree that the prototype of UPLIRA tool was applicable to workplace assessment for the wide range of jobs/task (mean 4.00, SD:0.632 with 83% percentage of agreement . They also indicate that UPLIRA method is quick to use (mean 3.67, SD:1.033 with percentage agreement of 67%. The scoring system and action level was rated as easy to understand (mean 3.67, SD:1.211 and (mean 4.17, SD:0.408. Conclusively, the UPLIRA method was rated as straightforward to use, applicable to wide range of tasks, and time saving as assessment can be completed within 10 minutes. In addition, the UPLIRA assessment covers an extensive range of physical, psychosocial, work organizational, and individual risk factors.

  17. Development of a non-expert risk assessment method for hand-arm related tasks (HARM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douwes, M.; Kraker, H. de

    2014-01-01

    To support health and safety practitioners in their obligation of risk assessment the 'Hand Arm Risk Assessment Method' (HARM) was developed. This tool can be used by any type of company for risk assessment of developing arm, neck or shoulders symptoms (pain) resulting from light manual tasks.This

  18. Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment of Environmental Contaminants: Concepts, Methods, Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    This problems-based, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks from multic...

  19. Chemical Mixtures Health Risk Assessment of Environmental Contaminants: Concepts, Methods, And Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    This problems-based, introductory workshop focuses on methods to assess health risks posed by exposures to chemical mixtures in the environment. Chemical mixtures health risk assessment methods continue to be developed and evolve to address concerns over health risks from multic...

  20. 12 CFR 327.9 - Assessment risk categories and pricing methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Assessment risk categories and pricing methods... OF GENERAL POLICY ASSESSMENTS In General § 327.9 Assessment risk categories and pricing methods. (a... and a weighted average of CAMELS component ratings will be multiplied by a corresponding pricing...

  1. 78 FR 25440 - Request for Information and Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    ... Citations on Methods for Cumulative Risk Assessment AGENCY: Office of the Science Advisor, Environmental... influence exposures, dose-response or risk/hazard posed by environmental contaminant exposures, and methods... who wish to receive further information about submitting information on methods for cumulative risk...

  2. A review of cyber security risk assessment methods for SCADA systems

    OpenAIRE

    Cherdantseva, Yulia; Burnap, Peter; Blyth, Andrew; Eden, Peter; Jones, Kevin; Soulsby, Hugh; Stoddart, Kristan

    2016-01-01

    This paper reviews the state of the art in cyber security risk assessment of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. We select and in-detail examine twenty-four risk assessment methods developed for or applied in the context of a SCADA system. We describe the essence of the methods and then analyse them in terms of aim; application domain; the stages of risk management addressed; key risk management concepts covered; impact measurement; sources of probabilistic data; evaluat...

  3. Deciding which chemical mixtures risk assessment methods work best for what mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teuschler, Linda K.

    2007-01-01

    The most commonly used chemical mixtures risk assessment methods involve simple notions of additivity and toxicological similarity. Newer methods are emerging in response to the complexities of chemical mixture exposures and effects. Factors based on both science and policy drive decisions regarding whether to conduct a chemical mixtures risk assessment and, if so, which methods to employ. Scientific considerations are based on positive evidence of joint toxic action, elevated human exposure conditions or the potential for significant impacts on human health. Policy issues include legislative drivers that may mandate action even though adequate toxicity data on a specific mixture may not be available and risk assessment goals that impact the choice of risk assessment method to obtain the amount of health protection desired. This paper discusses three important concepts used to choose among available approaches for conducting a chemical mixtures risk assessment: (1) additive joint toxic action of mixture components; (2) toxicological interactions of mixture components; and (3) chemical composition of complex mixtures. It is proposed that scientific support for basic assumptions used in chemical mixtures risk assessment should be developed by expert panels, risk assessment methods experts, and laboratory toxicologists. This is imperative to further develop and refine quantitative methods and provide guidance on their appropriate applications. Risk assessors need scientific support for chemical mixtures risk assessment methods in the form of toxicological data on joint toxic action for high priority mixtures, statistical methods for analyzing dose-response for mixtures, and toxicological and statistical criteria for determining sufficient similarity of complex mixtures

  4. A Method for Evaluating Competency in Assessment and Management of Suicide Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Erick K.; Binder, Renee L.; Fordwood, Samantha R.; Hall, Stephen E.; Cramer, Robert J.; McNiel, Dale E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Although health professionals increasingly are expected to be able to assess and manage patients' risk for suicide, few methods are available to evaluate this competency. This report describes development of a competency-assessment instrument for suicide risk-assessment (CAI-S), and evaluates its use in an objective structured clinical…

  5. Inter- and intra- observer reliability of risk assessment of repetitive work without an explicit method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliasson, Kristina; Palm, Peter; Nyman, Teresia; Forsman, Mikael

    2017-07-01

    A common way to conduct practical risk assessments is to observe a job and report the observed long term risks for musculoskeletal disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate the inter- and intra-observer reliability of ergonomists' risk assessments without the support of an explicit risk assessment method. Twenty-one experienced ergonomists assessed the risk level (low, moderate, high risk) of eight upper body regions, as well as the global risk of 10 video recorded work tasks. Intra-observer reliability was assessed by having nine of the ergonomists repeat the procedure at least three weeks after the first assessment. The ergonomists made their risk assessment based on his/her experience and knowledge. The statistical parameters of reliability included agreement in %, kappa, linearly weighted kappa, intraclass correlation and Kendall's coefficient of concordance. The average inter-observer agreement of the global risk was 53% and the corresponding weighted kappa (K w ) was 0.32, indicating fair reliability. The intra-observer agreement was 61% and 0.41 (K w ). This study indicates that risk assessments of the upper body, without the use of an explicit observational method, have non-acceptable reliability. It is therefore recommended to use systematic risk assessment methods to a higher degree. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. Risk assessment of groundwater level variability using variable Kriging methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanoudaki, Katerina; Kampanis, Nikolaos A.

    2015-04-01

    Assessment of the water table level spatial variability in aquifers provides useful information regarding optimal groundwater management. This information becomes more important in basins where the water table level has fallen significantly. The spatial variability of the water table level in this work is estimated based on hydraulic head measured during the wet period of the hydrological year 2007-2008, in a sparsely monitored basin in Crete, Greece, which is of high socioeconomic and agricultural interest. Three Kriging-based methodologies are elaborated in Matlab environment to estimate the spatial variability of the water table level in the basin. The first methodology is based on the Ordinary Kriging approach, the second involves auxiliary information from a Digital Elevation Model in terms of Residual Kriging and the third methodology calculates the probability of the groundwater level to fall below a predefined minimum value that could cause significant problems in groundwater resources availability, by means of Indicator Kriging. The Box-Cox methodology is applied to normalize both the data and the residuals for improved prediction results. In addition, various classical variogram models are applied to determine the spatial dependence of the measurements. The Matérn model proves to be the optimal, which in combination with Kriging methodologies provides the most accurate cross validation estimations. Groundwater level and probability maps are constructed to examine the spatial variability of the groundwater level in the basin and the associated risk that certain locations exhibit regarding a predefined minimum value that has been set for the sustainability of the basin's groundwater resources. Acknowledgement The work presented in this paper has been funded by the Greek State Scholarships Foundation (IKY), Fellowships of Excellence for Postdoctoral Studies (Siemens Program), 'A simulation-optimization model for assessing the best practices for the

  7. A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian

    2016-08-01

    Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).

  8. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  9. Unexploded Ordnance: A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Methods

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    MacDonald, Jacqueline

    2004-01-01

    .... While civilian fatalities from UXO explosions on U.S. soil have been rare, the risk of such accidents could increase substantially as more closed bases are transferred from military to civilian control...

  10. New Tools and Methods for Assessing Risk-Management Strategies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vendlinski, Terry P; Munro, Allen; Chung, Gregory K; De la Cruz, Girlie C; Pizzini, Quentin A; Bewley, William L; Stuart, Gale; Baker, Eva L

    2004-01-01

    .... The Decision Analysis Tool (DAT) allowed subjects to use Expected Value and Multi-attribute Utility Theories to evaluate the risks and benefits of various acquisition alternatives, and allowed us to monitor the process subjects used...

  11. Risk Assessment Method of UHV AC/DC Power System under Serious Disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rishang Long

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on the theory of risk assessment, the risk assessment method for an ultra-high voltage (UHV AC/DC hybrid power system under severe disaster is studied. Firstly, considering the whole process of cascading failure, a fast failure probability calculation method is proposed, and the whole process risk assessment model is established considering the loss of both fault stage and recovery stage based on Monte Carlo method and BPA software. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation index system is proposed from the aspects of power system structure, fault state and economic loss, and the quantitative assessment of system risk is carried out by an entropy weight model. Finally, the risk assessment of two UHV planning schemes are carried out and compared, which proves the effectiveness of the research work.

  12. Design and initial validation of the Raster method for telecom service availability risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vriezekolk, E.; Wieringa, R.J.; Etalle, S.; Rothkrantz, L.; Ristvej, J.; Franco, Z.

    2012-01-01

    Crisis organisations depend on telecommunication services; unavailability of these services reduces the effectiveness of crisis response. Crisis organisations should therefore be aware of availability risks, and need a suitable risk assessment method. Such a method needs to be aware of the

  13. Design and initial validation of the Raster method for telecom service availability risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vriezekolk, E.; Wieringa, Roelf J.; Etalle, Sandro; Rothkrantz, L.J.M.; Ristvej, J.; Franco, Z.

    Crisis organisations depend on telecommunication services; unavailability of these services reduces the effectiveness of crisis response. Crisis organisations should therefore be aware of availability risks, and need a suitable risk assessment method. Such a method needs to be aware of the

  14. A method of risk assessment for a multi-plant site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, R.F.

    1983-06-01

    A model is presented which can be used in conjunction with probabilistic risk assessment to estimate whether a site on which there are several plants (reactors or chemical plants containing radioactive materials) meets whatever risk acceptance criteria or numerical risk guidelines are applied at the time of the assessment in relation to various groups of people and for various sources of risk. The application of the multi-plant site model to the direct and inverse methods of risk assessment is described. A method is proposed by which the potential hazard rating associated with a given plant can be quantified so that an appropriate allocation can be made when assessing the risks associated with each of the plants on a site. (author)

  15. Comparison of concepts in easy-to-use methods for MSD risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman-Liu, Danuta

    2014-05-01

    This article presents a comparative analysis of easy-to-use methods for assessing musculoskeletal load and the risk for developing musculoskeletal disorders. In all such methods, assessment of load consists in defining input data, the procedure and the system of assessment. This article shows what assessment steps the methods have in common; it also shows how those methods differ in each step. In addition, the methods are grouped according to their characteristic features. The conclusion is that the concepts of assessing risk in different methods can be used to develop solutions leading to a comprehensive method appropriate for all work tasks and all parts of the body. However, studies are necessary to verify the accepted premises and to introduce some standardization that would make consolidation possible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  16. Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Z Y; Weng, W G

    2011-05-15

    In this paper, a qualitative and a quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network are proposed. The qualitative method is comprised of an index system, which includes a causation index, an inherent risk index, a consequence index and their corresponding weights. The quantitative method consists of a probability assessment, a consequences analysis and a risk evaluation. The outcome of the qualitative method is a qualitative risk value, and for quantitative method the outcomes are individual risk and social risk. In comparison with previous research, the qualitative method proposed in this paper is particularly suitable for urban natural gas pipeline network, and the quantitative method takes different consequences of accidents into consideration, such as toxic gas diffusion, jet flame, fire ball combustion and UVCE. Two sample urban natural gas pipeline networks are used to demonstrate these two methods. It is indicated that both of the two methods can be applied to practical application, and the choice of the methods depends on the actual basic data of the gas pipelines and the precision requirements of risk assessment. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A risk assessment method for multi-site damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millwater, Harry Russell, Jr.

    This research focused on developing probabilistic methods suitable for computing small probabilities of failure, e.g., 10sp{-6}, of structures subject to multi-site damage (MSD). MSD is defined as the simultaneous development of fatigue cracks at multiple sites in the same structural element such that the fatigue cracks may coalesce to form one large crack. MSD is modeled as an array of collinear cracks with random initial crack lengths with the centers of the initial cracks spaced uniformly apart. The data used was chosen to be representative of aluminum structures. The structure is considered failed whenever any two adjacent cracks link up. A fatigue computer model is developed that can accurately and efficiently grow a collinear array of arbitrary length cracks from initial size until failure. An algorithm is developed to compute the stress intensity factors of all cracks considering all interaction effects. The probability of failure of two to 100 cracks is studied. Lower bounds on the probability of failure are developed based upon the probability of the largest crack exceeding a critical crack size. The critical crack size is based on the initial crack size that will grow across the ligament when the neighboring crack has zero length. The probability is evaluated using extreme value theory. An upper bound is based on the probability of the maximum sum of initial cracks being greater than a critical crack size. A weakest link sampling approach is developed that can accurately and efficiently compute small probabilities of failure. This methodology is based on predicting the weakest link, i.e., the two cracks to link up first, for a realization of initial crack sizes, and computing the cycles-to-failure using these two cracks. Criteria to determine the weakest link are discussed. Probability results using the weakest link sampling method are compared to Monte Carlo-based benchmark results. The results indicate that very small probabilities can be computed

  18. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  19. Presentation of a Software Method for Use of Risk Assessment in Building Fire Safety Measure Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. R. Koohpaei

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims: The property loss and physical injuries due to fire events in buildings demonstrate the necessity of implementation of efficient and performance based fire safety measures. Effective and high efficiency protection is possible when design and selection of protection measures are based on risk assessment. This study aims at presenting a software method to make possible selection and design of building fire safety measures based upon quantitative risk assessment and building characteristics. Methods: based on “Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineer (FRAME” a program in MATLB software was written. The first section of this program, according to the FRAME method and based on the specification of a building, calculates the potential risk and acceptable risk level. In the second section, according to potential risk, acceptable risk level and the fire risk level that user want, program calculate concession of protective factor for that building.Results: The prepared software make it possible to assign the fire safety measure based on quantitative risk level and all building specifications. All calculations were performed with 0.001 of precision and the accuracy of this software was assessed with handmade calculations. During the use of the software if an error occurs in calculations, it can be distinguished in the output. Conclusion: Application of quantitative risk assessment is a suitable tool for increasing of efficiency in designing and execution of fire protection measure in building. With using this software the selected fire safety measure would be more efficient and suitable since the selection of fire safety measures performed on risk assessment and particular specification of a building. Moreover fire risk in the building can be managed easily and carefully.

  20. Applicability of PRA methods and data to the financial risk assessment of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Sheik, K.A.

    1985-01-01

    Financial risk assessment, where the probability and severity of financial consequences are estimated, offers a logical framework for organizing and evaluating data pertinent to nuclear power plant accidents. Under the sponsorship of the Electric Power Research Institute, General Electric investigated the feasibility of financial risk assessment of nuclear power plants and of applying PRA methods and data in such an assessment. This paper summarizes the main findings of this investigation. Specifically, the paper discussed the following topics: definition of financial consequences and financial risk; overall approach for financial risk assessment and how it compares with the approach for PRA used in the Reactor Safety Study; and specific financial risk assessment procedures for defining initiating events, plant response sequences, institutional scenarios, and financial consequences and how they compare to analogous procedures for PRA

  1. Evaluation of a novel risk assessment method for self-harm associated with Borderline Personality Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Sathya; Broadbear, Jillian H; Thompson, Katherine; Correia, Anna; Preston, Martin; Katz, Paul; Trett, Robert

    2017-10-01

    Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is associated with frequent self-harm and suicidal behaviours. This study compared physician-assessed self-harm risk and intervention choice according to a (i) standard risk assessment and (ii) BPD-specific risk assessment methods. Forty-five junior and senior mental health physicians were assigned to standard or BPD-specific risk training groups. The assessment utilized a BPD case vignette containing four scenarios describing high/low lethality self-harm and chronic/new patterns of self-harm behaviour. Participants chose from among four interventions, each corresponding to a risk category. Standard and BPD-specific groups were alike in their assessment of self-harm risk. Divergence occurred on intervention choice for assessments of low lethality, chronic risk ( pself harm-associated risk, BPD-specific training raised awareness of BPD-appropriate interventions, particularly in the context of chronic patterns of self-harm behaviour. Wider dissemination of BPD-specific risk training may enhance the confidence of mental health clinicians in identifying the nature of self-harm risk as well as the most clinically appropriate interventions for clients with BPD.

  2. Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, Dina; Pieters, Wolter; Teixeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

    2017-01-01

    Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by implementing suitable risk treatment plans. However, an overarching overview of these methods, systematizing the characteristics of such methods, is missing. In this paper, we conduct a systematic l...

  3. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-01-01

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

  4. Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

    2015-11-13

    Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area.

  5. Software Tool Implementing the Fuzzy AHP Method in Ecological Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radionovs Andrejs

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Due to the increased spread of invasive animals and plants in the territory of Latvia, the necessity of ecological risk assessment related to such kind of spread has grown lately. In cases with sufficient statistical data, the risk assessment may be successfully performed on the basis of statistical methods. The amount of statistical data in the context of spread of invasive animals and plants is pretty poor; therefore, the only method of ecological risk assessment remains subjective judgements of experts. The present paper proposes using a programming tool for ecological risk analysis elaborated by the authors. With the help of this programming tool the method of Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process is implemented. The elements of the pairwise comparison matrix are allowed to be expressed by triangular and trapezoidal fuzzy sets. The presented tool makes it possible to design the fuzzy pair-wise comparison matrix and process the results in a user-friendly way.

  6. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

  7. Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

    1986-04-01

    This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

  8. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tortorelli, J.P. [ed.] [Lockheed Idaho Technologies Co., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.

  9. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tortorelli, J.P.

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC's intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance

  10. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  11. An integrated stochastic environmental risk assessment method and its application to a petroleum-contaminated site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, L.; Fuller, G.A.; Huang, G.H.

    1999-01-01

    Contamination of soil and water and the resulting threat to public health and the environment are the frequent results of oil spills, leaks and other releases of gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil and other petroleum products. Integrating an analytical groundwater solute transport model within its general framework, this paper proposes an integrated stochastic risk assessment method and ways to apply it to petroleum-contaminated sites. Both the analytical solute transport model and the general risk assessment framework are solved by the Monte Carlo simulation technique for approaching the theoretical output distribution. Results of this study show that the total cancer risk has approximately log-normal distribution, irrespective of the fact that a variety of distributions were used to define the related parameters. It is claimed that the method can improve the effectiveness of the risk assessment for subsurface, and provide useful result for site remediation decisions. 23 refs., 3 tabs., 4 figs

  12. Applying the Msharpp Method in Risk Assessment for the Water Supply Critical Infrastructure Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badea Dorel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper highlights a manner to assess risks for an important sector of critical infrastructure, that of water supply, frequently regulated in international legal systems. We took into consideration the fact that risk is a problem related to the processes of decision making under conditions of uncertainty in most cases, so that by this approach we bring to the attention of critical infrastructure managers, drawing on their experience, a simple method that can be considered in a preliminary stage of risk assessment specific to water supply.

  13. Risk assessment in a foundry unit by energy trace and barrier analysis method (ETBA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.A. Ayati

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and aimsAs a Development of Industrial process, human, environment,equipment, material and validity of system has been exposed to hazardous conditions. Regards of32.3 percent of occupations in industries, this study focused on risk assessment of foundry unit byenergy trace and barrier analysis (ETBA method and presented approaches to control of accident.Methodsthe recent study is as a case study one to risk assessment in a foundry unit in Qazvinindustrial city in1387. In this study risks were founded by ETBA method and evaluated by MILSTD-882B. Data were collected by direct observations, interview with workers and supervisorand engineers, walking-talking through method, documents investigation of operationalprocessors, preventive maintenances, equipment technical properties, accidental and medicaldocuments. Finally ETBA worksheets completed.Findingstotally 154 risks has been found. 40 from total are been unacceptable risk, 68unfavorable and also 46 acceptable but with remediation action. Casting workshop had risks morethan other workshops (with 74 identified risks.Potential and heat energies were founded as mosthazardous energies, with respectively 51 and 38 risk cases.ConclusionThis study recommended to be done actions for identification and control risk,such as: safety training, occupation training, preventive maintenance, contract safety, safetycommunication and safety audit group.

  14. Analyzing the Risk of Fire in a Hospital Complex by “Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineering”(FRAME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarsangi V.* MSc,

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Aims The occurrence of fire in residential buildings, commercial complexes and large and small industries cause physical, environmental and financial damages to many different communities. Fire safety in hospitals is sensitive and it is believed that the society takes the responsibility to care sick people. The goal of this study was to use Fire Risk Assessment Method for Engineering (FRAME in a hospital complex environment and assess the level of fire risks. Materials & Methods This descriptive study was conducted in Kashan Shahid Beheshti hospital in 2013. The FRAME is designed based on the empirical and scientific knowledge and experiment and have acceptable reliability for assessing the building fire risk. Excel software was used to calculate the risk level and finally fire risk (R was calculated separately for different units. Findings Calculated Rs were less than 1for health, autoclave, office of nursing and infection control units. R1s were greater than 1 for all units. R2s were less than 1 for office of nursing and infection control units. Conclusion FRAME is an acceptable tool for assessing the risk of fire in buildings and the fire risk is high in Shahid Beheshti Hospital Complex of Kashan and damages can be intolerable in the case of fire.

  15. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

    2018-01-01

    Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

  16. Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Twigg

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

  17. Improved Methods for Fire Risk Assessment in Low-Income and Informal Settlements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Twigg, John; Christie, Nicola; Haworth, James; Osuteye, Emmanuel; Skarlatidou, Artemis

    2017-02-01

    Fires cause over 300,000 deaths annually worldwide and leave millions more with permanent injuries: some 95% of these deaths are in low- and middle-income countries. Burn injury risk is strongly associated with low-income and informal (or slum) settlements, which are growing rapidly in an urbanising world. Fire policy and mitigation strategies in poorer countries are constrained by inadequate data on incidence, impacts, and causes, which is mainly due to a lack of capacity and resources for data collection, analysis, and modelling. As a first step towards overcoming such challenges, this project reviewed the literature on the subject to assess the potential of a range of methods and tools for identifying, assessing, and addressing fire risk in low-income and informal settlements; the process was supported by an expert workshop at University College London in May 2016. We suggest that community-based risk and vulnerability assessment methods, which are widely used in disaster risk reduction, could be adapted to urban fire risk assessment, and could be enhanced by advances in crowdsourcing and citizen science for geospatial data creation and collection. To assist urban planners, emergency managers, and community organisations who are working in resource-constrained settings to identify and assess relevant fire risk factors, we also suggest an improved analytical framework based on the Haddon Matrix.

  18. Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Set Defuzzification Methods in the Context of Ecological Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Užga-Rebrovs Oļegs

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Fuzzy inference systems are widely used in various areas of human activity. Their most widespread use lies in the field of fuzzy control of technical devices of different kind. Another direction of using fuzzy inference systems is modelling and assessment of different kind of risks under insufficient or missing objective initial data. Fuzzy inference is concluded by the procedure of defuzzification of the resulting fuzzy sets. A large number of techniques for implementing the defuzzification procedure are available nowadays. The paper presents a comparative analysis of some widespread methods of fuzzy set defuzzification, and proposes the most appropriate methods in the context of ecological risk assessment.

  19. Movement recognition technology as a method of assessing spontaneous general movements in high risk infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire eMarcroft

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Preterm birth is associated with increased risks of neurological and motor impairments such as cerebral palsy. The risks are highest in those born at the lowest gestations. Early identification of those most at risk is challenging meaning that a critical window of opportunity to improve outcomes through therapy-based interventions may be missed. Clinically, the assessment of spontaneous general movements is an important tool which can be used for the prediction of movement impairments in high risk infants.Movement recognition aims to capture and analyze relevant limb movements through computerized approaches focusing on continuous, objective, and quantitative assessment. Different methods of recording and analyzing infant movements have recently been explored in high risk infants. These range from camera-based solutions to body-worn miniaturized movement sensors used to record continuous time-series data that represent the dynamics of limb movements. Various machine learning methods have been developed and applied to the analysis of the recorded movement data. This analysis has focused on the detection and classification of atypical spontaneous general movements. This paper aims to identify recent translational studies using movement recognition technology as a method of assessing movement in high risk infants. The application of this technology within pediatric practice represents a growing area of inter-disciplinary collaboration which may lead to a greater understanding of the development of the nervous system in infants at high risk of motor impairment.

  20. Qualitative risk assessment during polymer mortar test specimens preparation - methods comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, F.; Sousa, S. P. B.; Arezes, P.; Swuste, P.; Ribeiro, M. C. S.; Baptista, J. S.

    2015-05-01

    Polymer binder modification with inorganic nanomaterials (NM) could be a potential and efficient solution to control matrix flammability of polymer concrete (PC) materials without sacrificing other important properties. Occupational exposures can occur all along the life cycle of a NM and “nanoproducts” from research through scale-up, product development, manufacturing, and end of life. The main objective of the present study is to analyse and compare different qualitative risk assessment methods during the production of polymer mortars (PM) with NM. The laboratory scale production process was divided in 3 main phases (pre-production, production and post-production), which allow testing the assessment methods in different situations. The risk assessment involved in the manufacturing process of PM was made by using the qualitative analyses based on: French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health & Safety method (ANSES); Control Banding Nanotool (CB Nanotool); Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne method (EPFL); Guidance working safely with nanomaterials and nanoproducts (GWSNN); Istituto Superiore per la Prevenzione e la Sicurezza del Lavoro, Italy method (ISPESL); Precautionary Matrix for Synthetic Nanomaterials (PMSN); and Stoffenmanager Nano. It was verified that the different methods applied also produce different final results. In phases 1 and 3 the risk assessment tends to be classified as medium-high risk, while for phase 2 the more common result is medium level. It is necessary to improve the use of qualitative methods by defining narrow criteria for the methods selection for each assessed situation, bearing in mind that the uncertainties are also a relevant factor when dealing with the risk related to nanotechnologies field.

  1. Qualitative risk assessment during polymer mortar test specimens preparation - methods comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, F; Sousa, S P B; Ribeiro, M C S; Arezes, P; Swuste, P; Baptista, J S

    2015-01-01

    Polymer binder modification with inorganic nanomaterials (NM) could be a potential and efficient solution to control matrix flammability of polymer concrete (PC) materials without sacrificing other important properties. Occupational exposures can occur all along the life cycle of a NM and “nanoproducts” from research through scale-up, product development, manufacturing, and end of life. The main objective of the present study is to analyse and compare different qualitative risk assessment methods during the production of polymer mortars (PM) with NM. The laboratory scale production process was divided in 3 main phases (pre-production, production and post-production), which allow testing the assessment methods in different situations. The risk assessment involved in the manufacturing process of PM was made by using the qualitative analyses based on: French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety method (ANSES); Control Banding Nanotool (CB Nanotool); Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne method (EPFL); Guidance working safely with nanomaterials and nanoproducts (GWSNN); Istituto Superiore per la Prevenzione e la Sicurezza del Lavoro, Italy method (ISPESL); Precautionary Matrix for Synthetic Nanomaterials (PMSN); and Stoffenmanager Nano. It was verified that the different methods applied also produce different final results. In phases 1 and 3 the risk assessment tends to be classified as medium-high risk, while for phase 2 the more common result is medium level. It is necessary to improve the use of qualitative methods by defining narrow criteria for the methods selection for each assessed situation, bearing in mind that the uncertainties are also a relevant factor when dealing with the risk related to nanotechnologies field. (paper)

  2. A method of quantitative risk assessment for transmission pipeline carrying natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Young-Do; Ahn, Bum Jong

    2005-01-01

    Regulatory authorities in many countries are moving away from prescriptive approaches for keeping natural gas pipelines safe. As an alternative, risk management based on a quantitative assessment is being considered to improve the level of safety. This paper focuses on the development of a simplified method for the quantitative risk assessment for natural gas pipelines and introduces parameters of fatal length and cumulative fatal length. The fatal length is defined as the integrated fatality along the pipeline associated with hypothetical accidents. The cumulative fatal length is defined as the section of pipeline in which an accident leads to N or more fatalities. These parameters can be estimated easily by using the information of pipeline geometry and population density of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To demonstrate the proposed method, individual and societal risks for a sample pipeline have been estimated from the historical data of European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group and BG Transco. With currently acceptable criteria taken into account for individual risk, the minimum proximity of the pipeline to occupied buildings is approximately proportional to the square root of the operating pressure of the pipeline. The proposed method of quantitative risk assessment may be useful for risk management during the planning and building stages of a new pipeline, and modification of a buried pipeline

  3. Monumental Masonry Buildings Pre-Assessment Method Based on Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meltem VATAN

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Depending on the construction period, geometrical typology, construction and organization of the structure, element size and construction material of historic monumental structures; constructed with bricks, stones, adobe and mortar, are diverse and very complicated. Structural safety is guaranteed by the codes, guidelines, and specifications for recently constructed concrete and steel buildings, but there is no specific criterion for evaluating the historic monumental buildings. This study presents a scoring system method for classifying the risk level of the historic monumental structures based on visual information. This method is based on the acquisition of visual data of the building by using the developed building inspection form, storage of the acquired data on the web database and evaluation of the risk score of the inspected building automatically by the computer database system.

  4. Integrated Safety and Security Risk Assessment Methods: A Survey of Key Characteristics and Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chockalingam, Sabarathinam; Hadziosmanovic, D.; Pieters, Wolter; Texeira, Andre; van Gelder, Pieter

    2016-01-01

    Over the last years, we have seen several security incidents that compromised system safety, of which some caused physical harm to people. Meanwhile, various risk assessment methods have been developed that integrate safety and security, and these could help to address the corresponding threats by

  5. Psychological impact of family history risk assessment in primary care: a mixed methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birt, Linda; Emery, Jon D; Prevost, A Toby; Sutton, Stephen; Walter, Fiona M

    2014-08-01

    Routine family history risk assessment for chronic diseases could enable primary care practitioners to efficiently identify at-risk patients and promote preventive management strategies. To investigate patients' understanding and responses to family history risk assessment in primary care. A mixed methods study set in 10 Eastern England general practices. Participants in a family history questionnaire validation study were triaged into population or increased risk for four chronic diseases (type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer, colorectal cancer). Questionnaires completed immediately prior to the family history consultation (baseline) and 4 weeks later (follow-up) assessed the psychological impact, including State-Trait Anxiety Inventory scores. Semi-structured interviews explored the meaning participants gave to their personal familial disease risk. Four hundred and fifty-three participants completed both baseline and follow-up questionnaires and 30 were interviewed. At follow-up, there was no increase in anxiety among either group, or differences between the groups [difference in mean change 0.02, 95% confidence interval -2.04, 2.08, P = 0.98]. There were no significant changes over time in self-rated health in either group. At follow-up, participants at increased risk (n = 153) were more likely to have recent changes to behaviour and they had stronger intentions to make changes to diet (P = 0.001), physical activity (P = 0.006) and to seek further information in the future than those at population risk (n = 300; P assessment for familial risk of chronic diseases may be undertaken in primary care without causing anxiety or reducing self-rated health. Patient responses to family history risk assessment may inform promotion of preventive management strategies. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Proceeding of 35th domestic symposium on applications of structural reliability and risk assessment methods to nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-06-01

    As the 35th domestic symposium of Atomic Energy Research Committee, the Japan Welding Engineering Society, the symposium was held titled as Applications of structural reliability/risk assessment methods to nuclear energy'. Six speakers gave lectures titled as 'Structural reliability and risk assessment methods', 'Risk-informed regulation of US nuclear energy and role of probabilistic risk assessment', 'Reliability and risk assessment methods in chemical plants', 'Practical structural design methods based on reliability in architectural and civil areas', 'Maintenance activities based on reliability in thermal power plants' and 'LWR maintenance strategies based on Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics'. (T. Tanaka)

  7. [The methods of assessment of health risk from exposure to radon and radon daughters].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demin, V F; Zhukovskiy, M V; Kiselev, S M

    2014-01-01

    The critical analysis of existing models of the relationship dose-effect (RDE) for radon exposure on human health has been performed. Conclusion about the necessity and possibility of improving these models has been made. A new improved version ofthe RDE has been developed. A technique for assessing the human health risk of exposure to radon, including the method for estimating of exposure doses of radon, an improved model of RDE, proper methodology risk assessment has been described. Methodology is proposed for the use in the territory of Russia.

  8. Comparative analysis of assessment methods for operational and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potakhin S.N.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the investigation: to conduct a comparative analysis of methods of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding. Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis ofthe extent of the surgical and anesthetic risks and results of treatment of 71 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding has been conducted in the study. To evaluate the surgical and anesthetic risks classification trees are used, scale ТА. Rockall and prognosis System of rebleeding (SPRK, proposed by N. V. Lebedev et al. in 2009, enabling to evaluate the probability of a fatal outcome. To compare the efficacy ofthe methods the following indicators are used: sensitivity, specificity and prediction of positive result. Results. The study compared the results ofthe risk assessment emergency operation by using these methods with the outcome ofthe operation. The comparison ofthe prognosis results in sensitivity leads to the conclusion that the scales ТА. Rockall and SPRK are worse than the developed method of classification trees in recognizing patients with poor outcome of surgery. Conclusion. The method of classification trees can be considered as the most accurate method of evaluation of surgical and anesthetic risks in ulcerative gastroduodenal bleeding.

  9. Radiation safety assessment of cobalt 60 external beam radiotherapy using the risk-matrix method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumenigo, C; Vilaragut, J.J.; Ferro, R.; Guillen, A.; Ramirez, M.L.; Ortiz Lopez, P.; Rodriguez, M.; McDonnell, J.D.; Papadopulos, S.; Pereira, P.P.; Goncalvez, M.; Morales, J.; Larrinaga, E.; Lopez Morones, R.; Sanchez, R.; Delgado, J.M.; Sanchez, C.; Somoano, F.

    2008-01-01

    External beam radiotherapy is the only practice in which humans are placed directly in a radiation beam with the intention to deliver a very high dose. This is why safety in radiotherapy is very critical, and is a matter of interest to both radiotherapy departments and regulatory bodies. Accidental exposures have occurred throughout the world, thus showing the need for systematic safety assessments, capable to identify preventive measures and to minimize consequences of accidental exposure. Risk-matrix is a systematic approach which combines the relevant event features to assess the overall risk of each particular event. Once an event sequence is identified, questions such as how frequent the event, how severe the potential consequences and how reliable the existing safety measures are answered in a risk-matrix table. The ultimate goal is to achieve that the overall risk for events with severe consequences should always be low o very low. In the present study, the risk-matrix method has been applied to an hypothetical radiotherapy department, which could be equivalent to an upper level hospital of the Ibero American region, in terms of safety checks and preventive measures. The application of the method has identified 76 event sequences and revealed that the hypothetical radiotherapy department is sufficiently protected (low risk) against them, including 23 event sequences with severe consequences. The method has revealed that the risk of these sequences could grow to high level if certain specific preventive measures were degraded with time. This study has identified these preventive measures, thus facilitating a rational allocation of resources in regular controls to detect any loss of reliability. The method has proven to have an important practical value and is affordable at hospital level. The elaborated risk-matrix can be easily adapted to local circumstances, in terms of existing controls and safety measures. This approach can help hospitals to identify

  10. Health, safety and environment risk assessment in gas pipelines by indexing method:case of Kermanshah Sanandaj oil pipeline

    OpenAIRE

    Y. Hamidi; I. Mohamadfam; M. Motamedzadeh

    2009-01-01

    Background and AimsUsing pipelines for oil products transportation involves ranges of safety, health and environmental risks, this option however, is dominant with numerous  advantages. The purpose of this study was; relative risk assessment of abovementioned risk in Kermanshah-Sanandaj Oil Pipeline.MethodsThe method used in this study was Kent Muhlbauer method in which relative risk was assessed using third-party damage, corrosion, design, incorrect operations and leak impact  factor.Results...

  11. Survey of probabilistic methods in safety and risk assessment for nuclear power plant licensing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-04-01

    After an overview about the goals and general methods of probabilistic approaches in nuclear safety the main features of probabilistic safety or risk assessment (PRA) methods are discussed. Mostly in practical applications not a full-fledged PRA is applied but rather various levels of analysis leading from unavailability assessment of systems over the more complex analysis of the probable core damage stages up to the assessment of the overall health effects on the total population from a certain practice. The various types of application are discussed in relation to their limitation and benefits for different stages of design or operation of nuclear power plants. This gives guidance for licensing staff to judge the usefulness of the various methods for their licensing decisions. Examples of the application of probabilistic methods in several countries are given. Two appendices on reliability analysis and on containment and consequence analysis provide some more details on these subjects. (author)

  12. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  13. Perspectives and strategies of alternative methods used in the risk assessment of personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quantin, P; Thélu, A; Catoire, S; Ficheux, H

    2015-11-01

    Risk assessment for personal care products requires the use of alternative methods since animal testing is now totally banned. Some of these methods are effective and have been validated by the "European Union Reference Laboratory for alternatives to animal testing"; but there is still a need for development and implementation of methods for specific endpoints. In this review, we have focused on dermal risk assessment because it is the prime route of absorption and main target organ for personal care products. Within this field, various areas must be assessed: irritation, sensitisation and toxicokinetic. Personal care product behaviour after use by the consumer and potential effects on the environment are also discussed. The purpose of this review is to show evolution and the prospects of alternative methods for safety dermal assessment. Assessment strategies must be adapted to the different chemical classes of substances studied but also to the way in which they are used. Finally, experimental and theoretical technical parameters that may impact on measured effects have been identified and discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  14. Comparison between Canadian probabilistic safety assessment methods formulated by Atomic Energy of Canada limited and probabilistic risk assessment methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapiro, H.S.; Smith, J.E.

    1989-01-01

    The procedures used by Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) to perform probabilistic safety assessments (PRAs) differ somewhat from conventionally accepted probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedures used elsewhere. In Canada, PSA is used by AECL as an audit tool for an evolving design. The purpose is to assess the safety of the plant in engineering terms. Thus, the PSA procedures are geared toward providing engineering feedback so that necessary changes can be made to the design at an early stage, input can be made to operating procedures, and test and maintenance programs can be optimized in terms of costs. Most PRAs, by contrast, are performed in plants that are already built. Their main purpose is to establish the core melt frequency and the risk to the public due to core melt. Also, any design modification is very expensive. The differences in purpose and timing between PSA and PRA have resulted in differences in methodology and scope. The PSA procedures are used on all plants being designed by AECL

  15. Radiation safety assessment of treatment teletherapy linear accelerators using the method of the risk matrix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumenigo Gonzalez, Cruz; Vilaragut Llanes, Juan J.; Morales Lopez, Jorge L.

    2009-01-01

    Accidents in the world of radiation, demonstrating the need for deepen security assessments. This study evaluates the safety of the treatment of teletherapy linear accelerator (LINAC) at a hospital in Cuba, based on applying the method Risk Matrix. This method has been used for many years in conventional industry, is simple, easy to apply and is based on the equation General risk R = f * P * C (where: f frequency of occurrence of the initiating event, P probability of failure of all barriers and magnitude of the consequences C expected). We have evaluated 140 accident sequences that were identified during the analysis of the treatment process. It was identified that 5 sequences are associated with the level of risk is very low, 96 low-risk, high risk and 39 with no very high risk. All accident sequences associated with high risk (considered unacceptable), have an impact on patients, and no concerns workers and public, which reaffirms that major security problems are related to radiation protection of patients. 34 sequences accidental high risk are associated with human errors and failures only 5 to equipment (LINAC, TPS, TAC, etc.). demonstrating the importance of human error. It shows that 35 of the 39 high-risk accident sequences leading to serious or very serious consequences for patients, which would mean the death of one or more patients, making specific recommendations to reduce risk in these cases. The findings of this work and regulators allow users to refine their programs quality assurance and inspection and suggest the hospital management, prioritize material resources according to criteria of irrigation management. (author)

  16. WORKSHOP ON APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS TO BIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELING FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biologically-based pharmacokinetic models are being increasingly used in the risk assessment of environmental chemicals. These models are based on biological, mathematical, statistical and engineering principles. Their potential uses in risk assessment include extrapolation betwe...

  17. Epidemiological methods of assessing risks from low level occupational exposure to ionising radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reissland, J.A.

    1982-01-01

    The resolution of radiation-attributable malignancies from the background of malignancies which are responsible for about 20% of all deaths in the Western world, presents a formidable challenge to epidemiological methods. Some of the major difficulties facing those with the task of estimating the risks associated with exposure to low level ionising radiation are discussed, particularly in the context of radiological protection. Some of the studies currently in progress are summarised and suggestions are made for other work which may help to contribute to a better understanding of the quantitative aspects of radiation risk assessment. (author)

  18. Expeditious Methods for Site Characterization and Risk Assessment at Department of Defense Hazardous Waste Sites in the Republic of Korea

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hartman, Dean

    1999-01-01

    ...) with preferred innovative site characterization technologies and risk assessment methods to meet their needs in obtaining hazardous waste site data and then prioritizing those sites for remediation based upon risk...

  19. Risk assessment method for the implementation of materials divided up to the nanometric scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gridelet, L; Delbecq, P; Hervé, L; Fayet, G; Fleury, D; Kowal, S; Boissolle, P

    2013-01-01

    A new approach of assessing the risks inherent in the implementation of powders, including nanomaterials has been developed. This tool is based on the method of the OHB (Occupational Hazard Band) widely spread in the chemical industry. The European classification and CLP scales of toxicity have not been modified; only the control of exposure has been worked at. The method applies essentially to the prevention of the exposures by airborne materials, whatever their particle size. The skin exposure is not treated there specifically for the time being. The method considers exposure based on seven parameters to take into account the characteristics of the materials used, their emission potential, the conditions of use, as well as classic parameters of the characterization of the exposure as the duration and the frequency. The method stresses on a pragmatic exploitation of the current knowledge and of the available data, bearing in mind that a lot of them are not easily accessible to plant operators. The product of the reflection is then positioned on a hazard x exposure matrix from which 3 levels of priority of action are defined, as in the classical OHB method applied to pure chemical risk. This approach fills in a gap in term of risk assessment and avoids jeopardizing all that had been set up for years, while introducing newelements of reflection accessible to all operators.

  20. A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Victoria Katherine

    involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.

  1. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  2. Comparison of two occurrence risk assessment methods for collapse gully erosion ——A case study in Guangdong province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, K.; Cheng, D. B.; He, J. J.; Zhao, Y. L.

    2018-02-01

    Collapse gully erosion is a specific type of soil erosion in the red soil region of southern China, and early warning and prevention of the occurrence of collapse gully erosion is very important. Based on the idea of risk assessment, this research, taking Guangdong province as an example, adopt the information acquisition analysis and the logistic regression analysis, to discuss the feasibility for collapse gully erosion risk assessment in regional scale, and compare the applicability of the different risk assessment methods. The results show that in the Guangdong province, the risk degree of collapse gully erosion occurrence is high in northeastern and western area, and relatively low in southwestern and central part. The comparing analysis of the different risk assessment methods on collapse gully also indicated that the risk distribution patterns from the different methods were basically consistent. However, the accuracy of risk map from the information acquisition analysis method was slightly better than that from the logistic regression analysis method.

  3. Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Phillip

    2016-01-01

    Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

  4. A METEOROLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR POWER LINES BASED ON GIS AND MULTI-SENSOR INTEGRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Lin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Power lines, exposed in the natural environment, are vulnerable to various kinds of meteorological factors. Traditional research mainly deals with the influence of a single meteorological condition on the power line, which lacks of comprehensive effects evaluation and analysis of the multiple meteorological factors. In this paper, we use multiple meteorological monitoring data obtained by multi-sensors to implement the meteorological risk assessment and early warning of power lines. Firstly, we generate meteorological raster map from discrete meteorological monitoring data using spatial interpolation. Secondly, the expert scoring based analytic hierarchy process is used to compute the power line risk index of all kinds of meteorological conditions and establish the mathematical model of meteorological risk. By adopting this model in raster calculator of ArcGIS, we will have a raster map showing overall meteorological risks for power line. Finally, by overlaying the power line buffer layer to that raster map, we will get to know the exact risk index around a certain part of power line, which will provide significant guidance for power line risk management. In the experiment, based on five kinds of observation data gathered from meteorological stations in Guizhou Province of China, including wind, lightning, rain, ice, temperature, we carry on the meteorological risk analysis for the real power lines, and experimental results have proved the feasibility and validity of our proposed method.

  5. Method of assessing a lipid-related health risk based on ion mobility analysis of lipoproteins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benner, W. Henry; Krauss, Ronald M.; Blanche, Patricia J.

    2010-12-14

    A medical diagnostic method and instrumentation system for analyzing noncovalently bonded agglomerated biological particles is described. The method and system comprises: a method of preparation for the biological particles; an electrospray generator; an alpha particle radiation source; a differential mobility analyzer; a particle counter; and data acquisition and analysis means. The medical device is useful for the assessment of human diseases, such as cardiac disease risk and hyperlipidemia, by rapid quantitative analysis of lipoprotein fraction densities. Initially, purification procedures are described to reduce an initial blood sample to an analytical input to the instrument. The measured sizes from the analytical sample are correlated with densities, resulting in a spectrum of lipoprotein densities. The lipoprotein density distribution can then be used to characterize cardiac and other lipid-related health risks.

  6. Use of risk assessment methods for security design and analysis of nuclear and radioactive facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasconcelos, Vanderley de; Andrade, Marcos C.; Jordao, Elizabete

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this work is to evaluate the applicability of risk assessment methods for analyzing the physical protection of nuclear and radioactive facilities. One of the important processes for physical protection in nuclear and radioactive facilities is the identifying of areas containing nuclear materials, structures, systems or components to be protected from sabotage, which could directly or indirectly lead to unacceptable radiological consequences. A survey of the international guidelines and recommendations about vital area identification, design basis threat (DBT), and the security of nuclear and radioactive facilities was carried out. The traditional methods used for quantitative risk assessment, like FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), Event and Decision Trees, Fault and Success Trees, Vulnerability Assessment, Monte Carlo Simulation, Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Scenario Analysis, and Game Theory, among others, are highlighted. The applicability of such techniques to security issues, their pros and cons, the general resources needed to implement them, as data or support software, are analyzed. Finally, an approach to security design and analysis, beginning with a qualitative and preliminary examination to determine the range of possible scenarios, outcomes, and the systems to be included in the analyses, and proceeding to a progressively use of more quantitative techniques is presented. (author)

  7. A structured hazard analysis and risk assessment method for automotive systems—A descriptive study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beckers, Kristian; Holling, Dominik; Côté, Isabelle; Hatebur, Denis

    2017-01-01

    The 2011 release of the first version of the ISO 26262 standard for automotive systems demand the elicitation of safety goals following a rigorous method for hazard and risk analysis. Companies are struggling with the adoption of the standard due to ambiguities, documentation demands and the alignment of the standards demands to existing processes. We previously proposed a structured engineering method to deal with these problems developed in applying action research together with an OEM. In this work, we evaluate how applicable the method is for junior automotive software engineers by a descriptive study. We provided the method to 8 members of the master course Automotive Software Engineering (ASE) at the Technical University Munich. The participants have each been working in the automotive industry for 1–4 years in parallel to their studies. We investigated their application of our method to an electronic steering column lock system. The participants applied our method in a first round alone and afterwards discussed their results in groups. Our data analysis revealed that the participants could apply the method successfully and the hazard analysis and risk assessment achieved a high precision and productivity. Moreover, the precision could be improved significantly during group discussions.

  8. Risk analysis methods: their importance for safety assessment of practices using radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumenigo, C; Vilaragut, J.J.; Ferro, R.; Guillen, A.; Ramirez, M.L.; Ortiz Lopez, P.; Rodriguez, M.; McDonnell, J.D.; Papadopulos, S.; Pereira, P.P.; Goncalvez, M.; Morales, J.; Larrinaga, E.; Lopez Morones, R.; Sanchez, R.; Delgado, J.M.; Sanchez, C.; Somoano, F.

    2008-01-01

    Radiation safety has been based for many years on verification of compliance with regulatory requirements, codes of practice and international standards, which can be considered prescriptive methods. Accident analyses have been published, lessons have been learned and safety assessments have incorporated the need to check whether a facility is ready to avoid accidents similar to the reported ones. These approaches can be also called 'reactive methods'. They have in common the fundamental limitation of being restricted to reported experience, but do not take into account other potential events, which were never published or never happened, i.e. latent risks. Moreover, they focus on accident sequences with major consequences and low probability but may not pay enough attention to other sequences leading to lower, but still significant consequences with higher probability. More proactive approaches are, therefore, needed, to assess risk in radiation facilities. They aim at identifying all potential equipment faults and human error, which can lead to predefined unwanted consequences and are based on the general risk equation: Risk = Probability of occurrence of an accidental sequence * magnitude of the consequences. In this work, a review is given of the experience obtained by the countries of the Ibero American Forum of Nuclear and Radiation Safety Regulatory Organizations, by applying proactive methods to radiotherapy practice. In particular, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) used for external beam treatments with linear electron accelerators and two studies, on cobalt 60 therapy and brachytherapy using the risk-matrix approach are presented. The work has identified event sequences, their likelihood of occurrence, the consequences, the efficiency of interlocks and control checks and the global importance in terms of overall risk, to facilitate decision making and implementation of preventive measures. A comparison is presented of advantages and limitations of

  9. Risk Assessment Method for Offshore Structure Based on Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zou Tao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on global sensitivity analysis (GSA, this paper proposes a new risk assessment method for an offshore structure design. This method quantifies all the significances among random variables and their parameters at first. And by comparing the degree of importance, all minor factors would be negligible. Then, the global uncertainty analysis work would be simplified. Global uncertainty analysis (GUA is an effective way to study the complexity and randomness of natural events. Since field measured data and statistical results often have inevitable errors and uncertainties which lead to inaccurate prediction and analysis, the risk in the design stage of offshore structures caused by uncertainties in environmental loads, sea level, and marine corrosion must be taken into account. In this paper, the multivariate compound extreme value distribution model (MCEVD is applied to predict the extreme sea state of wave, current, and wind. The maximum structural stress and deformation of a Jacket platform are analyzed and compared with different design standards. The calculation result sufficiently demonstrates the new risk assessment method’s rationality and security.

  10. Overview of methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is playing an increasingly important role in the nuclear reactor regulatory process. The assessment of uncertainties associated with PRA results is widely recognized as an important part of the analysis process. One of the major criticisms of the Reactor Safety Study was that its representation of uncertainty was inadequate. The desire for the capability to treat uncertainties with the MELCOR risk code being developed at Sandia National Laboratories is indicative of the current interest in this topic. However, as yet, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in the context of PRA is a relatively immature field. In this paper, available methods for uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis in a PRA are reviewed. This review first treats methods for use with individual components of a PRA and then considers how these methods could be combined in the performance of a complete PRA. In the context of this paper, the goal of uncertainty analysis is to measure the imprecision in PRA outcomes of interest, and the goal of sensitivity analysis is to identify the major contributors to this imprecision. There are a number of areas that must be considered in uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis for a PRA: (1) information, (2) systems analysis, (3) thermal-hydraulic phenomena/fission product behavior, (4) health and economic consequences, and (5) display of results. Each of these areas and the synthesis of them into a complete PRA are discussed

  11. Risk assessment for pipelines with active defects based on artificial intelligence methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anghel, Calin I. [Department of Chemical Engineering, Faculty of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, University ' Babes-Bolyai' , Cluj-Napoca (Romania)], E-mail: canghel@chem.ubbcluj.ro

    2009-07-15

    The paper provides another insight into the pipeline risk assessment for in-service pressure piping containing defects. Beside of the traditional analytical approximation methods or sampling-based methods safety index and failure probability of pressure piping containing defects will be obtained based on a novel type of support vector machine developed in a minimax manner. The safety index or failure probability is carried out based on a binary classification approach. The procedure named classification reliability procedure, involving a link between artificial intelligence and reliability methods was developed as a user-friendly computer program in MATLAB language. To reveal the capacity of the proposed procedure two comparative numerical examples replicating a previous related work and predicting the failure probabilities of pressured pipeline with defects were presented.

  12. Risk assessment for pipelines with active defects based on artificial intelligence methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anghel, Calin I.

    2009-01-01

    The paper provides another insight into the pipeline risk assessment for in-service pressure piping containing defects. Beside of the traditional analytical approximation methods or sampling-based methods safety index and failure probability of pressure piping containing defects will be obtained based on a novel type of support vector machine developed in a minimax manner. The safety index or failure probability is carried out based on a binary classification approach. The procedure named classification reliability procedure, involving a link between artificial intelligence and reliability methods was developed as a user-friendly computer program in MATLAB language. To reveal the capacity of the proposed procedure two comparative numerical examples replicating a previous related work and predicting the failure probabilities of pressured pipeline with defects were presented.

  13. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  14. Testing contamination risk assessment methods for toxic elements from mine waste sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdaal, A.; Jordan, G.; Szilassi, P.; Kiss, J.; Detzky, G.

    2012-04-01

    Major incidents involving mine waste facilities and poor environmental management practices have left a legacy of thousands of contaminated sites like in the historic mining areas in the Carpathian Basin. Associated environmental risks have triggered the development of new EU environmental legislation to prevent and minimize the effects of such incidents. The Mine Waste Directive requires the risk-based inventory of all mine waste sites in Europe by May 2012. In order to address the mining problems a standard risk-based Pre-selection protocol has been developed by the EU Commission. This paper discusses the heavy metal contamination in acid mine drainage (AMD) for risk assessment (RA) along the Source-Pathway-Receptor chain using decision support methods which are intended to aid national and regional organizations in the inventory and assessment of potentially contaminated mine waste sites. Several recognized methods such as the European Environmental Agency (EEA) standard PRAMS model for soil contamination, US EPA-based AIMSS and Irish HMS-IRC models for RA of abandoned sites are reviewed, compared and tested for the mining waste environment. In total 145 ore mine waste sites have been selected for scientific testing using the EU Pre-selection protocol as a case study from Hungary. The proportion of uncertain to certain responses for a site and for the total number of sites may give an insight of specific and overall uncertainty in the data we use. The Pre-selection questions are efficiently linked to a GIS system as database inquiries using digital spatial data to directly generate answers. Key parameters such as distance to the nearest surface and ground water bodies, to settlements and protected areas are calculated and statistically evaluated using STATGRAPHICS® in order to calibrate the RA models. According to our scientific research results, of the 145 sites 11 sites are the most risky having foundation slope >20o, 57 sites are within distance 66 (class VI

  15. Evaluation of a chemical risk assessment method of South Korea for chemicals classified as carcinogenic, mutagenic or reprotoxic (CMR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Min-Uk; Byeon, Sang-Hoon

    2017-12-12

    Chemicals were used in various fields by the development of industry and science and technology. The Chemical Hazard Risk Management (CHARM) was developed to assess the risk of chemicals in South Korea. In this study, we were to evaluate the CHARM model developed for the effective management of workplace chemicals. We used 59 carcinogenic, mutagenic or reprotoxic (CMR) materials, which are both the work environment measurement result and the usage information among the manufacturer data. The CHARM model determines the risk to human health using the exposure level (based on working environment measurements or a combination of the quantity used and chemical physical properties (e.g., fugacity and volatility)), hazard (using occupational exposure limit (OEL) or Risk phrases (R-phrases)/Hazard statements (H-statements) from the Material Safety Data Sheet (MSDS)). The risk level was lower when using the results of the work environment measurement than when applying the chemical quantity and physical properties in the exposure level evaluation method. It was evaluated as grade 4 for the CMR material in the hazard class determination. The risk assessment method by R-phrases was evaluated more conservatively than the risk assessment method by OEL. And the risk assessment method by H-statements was evaluated more conservatively than the risk assessment method by R-phrases. The CHARM model was gradually conservatively assessed as it proceeded in the next step without quantitative information for individual workplaces. The CHARM is expected to help identify the risk if the hazards and exposure levels of chemicals were identified in individual workplaces. For CMR substances, although CHARM is highly evaluated for hazards, the risk is assessed to be low if exposure levels are assessed low. When evaluating the risk of highly hazardous chemicals such as CMR substances, we believe the model should be adapted to be more conservative and classify these as higher risk. This work is

  16. New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

    2011-12-01

    Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

  17. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  18. Use of Monte Carlo methods in environmental risk assessments at the INEL: Applications and issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, G.; Van Horn, R.

    1996-06-01

    The EPA is increasingly considering the use of probabilistic risk assessment techniques as an alternative or refinement of the current point estimate of risk. This report provides an overview of the probabilistic technique called Monte Carlo Analysis. Advantages and disadvantages of implementing a Monte Carlo analysis over a point estimate analysis for environmental risk assessment are discussed. The general methodology is provided along with an example of its implementation. A phased approach to risk analysis that allows iterative refinement of the risk estimates is recommended for use at the INEL

  19. Use of Monte Carlo methods in environmental risk assessments at the INEL: Applications and issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G.; Van Horn, R.

    1996-06-01

    The EPA is increasingly considering the use of probabilistic risk assessment techniques as an alternative or refinement of the current point estimate of risk. This report provides an overview of the probabilistic technique called Monte Carlo Analysis. Advantages and disadvantages of implementing a Monte Carlo analysis over a point estimate analysis for environmental risk assessment are discussed. The general methodology is provided along with an example of its implementation. A phased approach to risk analysis that allows iterative refinement of the risk estimates is recommended for use at the INEL.

  20. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  1. An Application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to Risk Assessment of Organisational Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollnagel, Erik [MINES ParisTech Crisis and Risk Research Centre (CRC), Sophia Antipolis Cedex (France)

    2012-11-15

    The objective of this study was to demonstrate an alternative approach to risk assessment of organisational changes, based on the principles of resilience engineering. The approach in question was the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). Whereas established approaches focus on risks coming from failure or malfunctioning of components, alone or in combination, resilience engineering focuses on the common functions and processes that provide the basis for both successes and failures. Resilience engineering more precisely proposes that failures represent the flip side of the adaptations necessary to cope with the real world complexity rather than a failure of normal system functions and that a safety assessment therefore should focus on how functions are carried out rather than on how they may fail. The objective of this study was not to evaluate the current approach to risk assessment used by the organisation in question. The current approach has nevertheless been used as a frame of reference, but in a non-evaluative manner. The author has demonstrated through the selected case that FRAM can be used as an alternative approach to organizational changes. The report provides the reader with details to consider when making a decision on what analysis approach to use. The choice of which approach to use must reflect priorities and concerns of the organisation and the author makes no statement about which approach is better. It is clear that the choice of an analysis approach is not so simple to make and there are many things to take into account such as the larger working environment, organisational culture, regulatory requirements, etc.

  2. An Application of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to Risk Assessment of Organisational Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollnagel, Erik

    2012-11-01

    The objective of this study was to demonstrate an alternative approach to risk assessment of organisational changes, based on the principles of resilience engineering. The approach in question was the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). Whereas established approaches focus on risks coming from failure or malfunctioning of components, alone or in combination, resilience engineering focuses on the common functions and processes that provide the basis for both successes and failures. Resilience engineering more precisely proposes that failures represent the flip side of the adaptations necessary to cope with the real world complexity rather than a failure of normal system functions and that a safety assessment therefore should focus on how functions are carried out rather than on how they may fail. The objective of this study was not to evaluate the current approach to risk assessment used by the organisation in question. The current approach has nevertheless been used as a frame of reference, but in a non-evaluative manner. The author has demonstrated through the selected case that FRAM can be used as an alternative approach to organizational changes. The report provides the reader with details to consider when making a decision on what analysis approach to use. The choice of which approach to use must reflect priorities and concerns of the organisation and the author makes no statement about which approach is better. It is clear that the choice of an analysis approach is not so simple to make and there are many things to take into account such as the larger working environment, organisational culture, regulatory requirements, etc

  3. A combined usage of stochastic and quantitative risk assessment methods in the worksites: Application on an electric power provider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marhavilas, P.K.; Koulouriotis, D.E.

    2012-01-01

    An individual method cannot build either a realistic forecasting model or a risk assessment process in the worksites, and future perspectives should focus on the combined forecasting/estimation approach. The main purpose of this paper is to gain insight into a risk prediction and estimation methodological framework, using the combination of three different methods, including the proportional quantitative-risk-assessment technique (PRAT), the time-series stochastic process (TSP), and the method of estimating the societal-risk (SRE) by F–N curves. In order to prove the usefulness of the combined usage of stochastic and quantitative risk assessment methods, an application on an electric power provider industry is presented to, using empirical data.

  4. Review on pen-and-paper-based observational methods for assessing ergonomic risk factors of computer work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mohd Nasrull Abdol; Mohamad, Siti Shafika

    2017-01-01

    Computer works are associated with Musculoskeletal Disorders (MSDs). There are several methods have been developed to assess computer work risk factor related to MSDs. This review aims to give an overview of current techniques available for pen-and-paper-based observational methods in assessing ergonomic risk factors of computer work. We searched an electronic database for materials from 1992 until 2015. The selected methods were focused on computer work, pen-and-paper observational methods, office risk factors and musculoskeletal disorders. This review was developed to assess the risk factors, reliability and validity of pen-and-paper observational method associated with computer work. Two evaluators independently carried out this review. Seven observational methods used to assess exposure to office risk factor for work-related musculoskeletal disorders were identified. The risk factors involved in current techniques of pen and paper based observational tools were postures, office components, force and repetition. From the seven methods, only five methods had been tested for reliability. They were proven to be reliable and were rated as moderate to good. For the validity testing, from seven methods only four methods were tested and the results are moderate. Many observational tools already exist, but no single tool appears to cover all of the risk factors including working posture, office component, force, repetition and office environment at office workstations and computer work. Although the most important factor in developing tool is proper validation of exposure assessment techniques, the existing observational method did not test reliability and validity. Futhermore, this review could provide the researchers with ways on how to improve the pen-and-paper-based observational method for assessing ergonomic risk factors of computer work.

  5. Corrosion Assessment by Using Risk-Based Inspection Method for Petrochemical Plant - Practical Experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Song Chun; Song, Ki Hun

    2009-01-01

    Corrosion assessment has a number of uses but the use considered here is as a precursor to Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) planning. Systematic methods consisting of technical modules of RBI program were used to assess the effect of specific corrosion mechanism on the probability of failure in equipment of petrochemical plants. Especially in part of the damage and corrosion assessment, screening step involved evaluating the combinations of process conditions and construction materials for each equipment item in order to determine which damage mechanisms are potentially active. For general internal corrosion, either API 510 or API 570 was applied as the damage rate in the calculation to determine the remaining life and inspection frequency. In some cases, a measured rate of corrosion may not be available. The technical modules of RBI program employ default values for corrosion, typically derived from published data or from experience with similar processes, for use until inspection results are available. This paper describes the case study of corrosion and damage assessment by using RBI methodology in petrochemical plant. Specifically, this paper reports the methodology and the results of its application to the petrochemical units using the KGS-RBI TM program, developed by the Korea Gas Safety Corporation to suit Korean situation in conformity with API 581 Codes

  6. Risk Assessment of Defect Occurrences in Engine Piston Castings by FMEA Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piątkowski J.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis method consists in analysis of failure modes and evaluation of their effects based on determination of cause-effect relationships for formation of possible product or process defects. Identified irregularities which occur during the production process of piston castings for internal combustion engines were ordered according to their failure rates, and using Pareto-Lorenz analysis, their per cent and cumulated shares were determined. The assessments of risk of defects occurrence and their causes were carried out in ten-point scale of integers, while taking three following criteria into account: significance of effects of the defect occurrence (LPZ, defect occurrence probability (LPW and detectability of the defect found (LPO. A product of these quantities constituted the risk score index connected with a failure occurrence (a so-called “priority number,” LPR. Based on the observations of the piston casting process and on the knowledge of production supervisors, a set of corrective actions was developed and the FMEA was carried out again. It was shown that the proposed improvements reduce the risk of occurrence of process failures significantly, translating into a decrease in defects and irregularities during the production of piston castings for internal combustion engines.

  7. Using Statistical and Probabilistic Methods to Evaluate Health Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongjing Wu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The toxic chemical and heavy metals within wastewater can cause serious adverse impacts on human health. Health risk assessment (HRA is an effective tool for supporting decision-making and corrective actions in water quality management. HRA can also help people understand the water quality and quantify the adverse effects of pollutants on human health. Due to the imprecision of data, measurement error and limited available information, uncertainty is inevitable in the HRA process. The purpose of this study is to integrate statistical and probabilistic methods to deal with censored and limited numbers of input data to improve the reliability of the non-cancer HRA of dermal contact exposure to contaminated river water by considering uncertainty. A case study in the Kelligrews River in St. John’s, Canada, was conducted to demonstrate the feasibility and capacity of the proposed approach. Five heavy metals were selected to evaluate the risk level, including arsenic, molybdenum, zinc, uranium and manganese. The results showed that the probability of the total hazard index of dermal exposure exceeding 1 is very low, and there is no obvious evidence of risk in the study area.

  8. Development of Advanced Life Cycle Costing Methods for Technology Benefit/Cost/Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackovetsky, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The overall objective of this three-year grant is to provide NASA Langley's System Analysis Branch with improved affordability tools and methods based on probabilistic cost assessment techniques. In order to accomplish this objective, the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL) needs to pursue more detailed affordability, technology impact, and risk prediction methods and to demonstrate them on variety of advanced commercial transports. The affordability assessment, which is a cornerstone of ASDL methods, relies on the Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Analysis (ALCCA) program originally developed by NASA Ames Research Center and enhanced by ASDL. This grant proposed to improve ALCCA in support of the project objective by updating the research, design, test, and evaluation cost module, as well as the engine development cost module. Investigations into enhancements to ALCCA include improved engine development cost, process based costing, supportability cost, and system reliability with airline loss of revenue for system downtime. A probabilistic, stand-alone version of ALCCA/FLOPS will also be developed under this grant in order to capture the uncertainty involved in technology assessments. FLOPS (FLight Optimization System program) is an aircraft synthesis and sizing code developed by NASA Langley Research Center. This probabilistic version of the coupled program will be used within a Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method to determine what types of technologies would have to be infused in a system in order to meet customer requirements. A probabilistic analysis of the CER's (cost estimating relationships) within ALCCA will also be carried out under this contract in order to gain some insight as to the most influential costs and the impact that code fidelity could have on future RDS (Robust Design Simulation) studies.

  9. 75 FR 6031 - Policy Paper on Revised Risk Assessment Methods for Workers, Children of Workers in Agricultural...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-05

    ... and its relationship to several other key Agency initiatives that are currently under development and... Assessment Methods for Workers, Children of Workers in Agricultural Fields, and Pesticides with No Food Uses... for comment a policy paper entitled ``Revised Risk Assessment Methods for Workers, Children of Workers...

  10. Transmission risk assessment of invasive fluke Fascioloides magna using GIS-modelling and multicriteria analysis methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juhásová L.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The combination of multicriteria analysis (MCA, particularly analytic hierarchy process (AHP and geographic information system (GIS were applied for transmission risk assessment of Fascioloides magna (Trematoda; Fasciolidae in south-western Slovakia. Based on the details on F. magna life cycle, the following risk factors (RF of parasite transmission were determined: intermediate (RFIH and final hosts (RFFH (biological factors, annual precipitation (RFAP, land use (RFLU, flooded area (RFFA, and annual mean air temperature (RFAT (environmental factors. Two types of risk analyses were modelled: (1 potential risk analysis was focused on the determination of the potential risk of parasite transmission into novel territories (data on F. magna occurrence were excluded; (2 actual risk analysis considered also the summary data on F. magna occurrence in the model region (risk factor parasite occurrence RFPO included in the analysis. The results of the potential risk analysis provided novel distribution pattern and revealed new geographical area as the potential risk zone of F. magna occurrence. Although the actual risk analysis revealed all four risk zones of F. magna transmission (acceptable, moderate, undesirable and unacceptable, its outputs were significantly affected by the data on parasite occurrence what reduced the informative value of the actual transmission risk assessment.

  11. Method for Pedestrian Crossing Risk Assessment and Safety Level Determination: the Case Study of Tallinn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pashkevich, M.; Krasilnikova, A.; Antov, D.

    2016-07-01

    Pedestrians are a part of vulnerable road users which safety requires a special attention. Official statistics in Estonia from the last decade returns the following numbers: around 30 % of all road traffic accidents in the country were accidents with pedestrians, 32 % of all traffic fatalities were finished with pedestrian death. Pedestrian crossing has the biggest risk level between all kinds of pedestrian facilities, because it includes a direct conflict point between vehicle and pedestrian traffics. The article presents a method to assess risk of pedestrian crossing users and to determine safety level of this road infrastructure element. This approach is based on observation and collection of infrastructural as well as traffic data, which includes: (1) information about each pedestrian crossing facility, its location and state, (2) data about accidents with pedestrians and their features, (3) data from road traffic measurements. The main advantages of the described method are universality and comprehensiveness. The case study was done in Kristiine district of the city Tallinn, which was chosen as the most typical average district of Estonian capital. Results of this study are also presented in the article. (Author)

  12. Risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet: Hazard identification by methods of animal-based toxicology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barlow, S. M.; Greig, J. B.; Bridges, J. W.

    2002-01-01

    the current state of the science of risk assessment of chemicals in food and diet, by consideration of the four stages of risk assessment, that is. hazard identification. hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and risk characterisation. The contribution of animal-based methods in toxicology to hazard......, on hazard identification for food chemicals, such as new measurement techniques, the use of transgenic animals, assessment of hormone balance and the possibilities for conducting studies in which common human diseases have been modelled. is also considered. (C) 2002 ILSI. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd....... All rights reserved....

  13. Pharmaceutical supply chain risk assessment in Iran using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and simple additive weighting (SAW) methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaberidoost, Mona; Olfat, Laya; Hosseini, Alireza; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Alaeddini, Mahdi; Dinarvand, Rassoul

    2015-01-01

    Pharmaceutical supply chain is a significant component of the health system in supplying medicines, particularly in countries where main drugs are provided by local pharmaceutical companies. No previous studies exist assessing risks and disruptions in pharmaceutical companies while assessing the pharmaceutical supply chain. Any risks affecting the pharmaceutical companies could disrupt supply medicines and health system efficiency. The goal of this study was the risk assessment in pharmaceutical industry in Iran considering process's priority, hazard and probability of risks. The study was carried out in 4 phases; risk identification through literature review, risk identification in Iranian pharmaceutical companies through interview with experts, risk analysis through a questionnaire and consultation with experts using group analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and rating scale (RS) and risk evaluation of simple additive weighting (SAW) method. In total, 86 main risks were identified in the pharmaceutical supply chain with perspective of pharmaceutical companies classified in 11 classes. The majority of risks described in this study were related to the financial and economic category. Also financial management was found to be the most important factor for consideration. Although pharmaceutical industry and supply chain were affected by current political conditions in Iran during the study time, but half of total risks in the pharmaceutical supply chain were found to be internal risks which could be fixed by companies, internally. Likewise, political status and related risks forced companies to focus more on financial and supply management resulting in less attention to quality management.

  14. Risk assessment and cost-effectiveness of animal health certification methods for livestock export in Somalia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight-Jones, T J D; Njeumi, F; Elsawalhy, A; Wabacha, J; Rushton, J

    2014-03-01

    Livestock export is vital to the Somali economy. To protect Somali livestock exports from costly import bans used to control the international spread of disease, better certification of livestock health status is required. We performed quantitative risk assessment and cost-effectiveness analysis on different health certification protocols for Somali livestock exports for six transboundary diseases. Examining stock at regional markets alone without port inspection and quarantine was inexpensive but was ineffective for all but contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, contagious caprine pleuropneumonia and peste des petits ruminants. While extended pre-export quarantine improves detection of infections that cause clinical disease, if biosecurity is suboptimal quarantine provides an opportunity for transmission and increased risk. Clinical examination, laboratory screening and vaccination of animals for key diseases before entry to the quarantine station reduced the risk of an exported animal being infected. If vaccination could be reliably performed weeks before arrival at quarantine its effect would be greatly enhanced. The optimal certification method depends on the disease. Laboratory diagnostic testing was particularly important for detecting infections with limited clinical signs in male animals (only males are exported); for Rift Valley fever (RVF) the probability of detection was 99% or 0% with and without testing. Based on our findings animal inspection and certification at regional markets combined with quarantine inspection and certification would reduce the risk of exporting infected animals and enhance disease control at the regional level. This is especially so for key priority diseases, that is RVF, foot-and-mouth disease and Brucellosis. Increased data collection and testing should be applied at point of production and export. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Comprehensive risk assessment method of catastrophic accident based on complex network properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Zhen; Pang, Jun; Shen, Xiaohong

    2017-09-01

    On the macro level, the structural properties of the network and the electrical characteristics of the micro components determine the risk of cascading failures. And the cascading failures, as a process with dynamic development, not only the direct risk but also potential risk should be considered. In this paper, comprehensively considered the direct risk and potential risk of failures based on uncertain risk analysis theory and connection number theory, quantified uncertain correlation by the node degree and node clustering coefficient, then established a comprehensive risk indicator of failure. The proposed method has been proved by simulation on the actual power grid. Modeling a network according to the actual power grid, and verified the rationality of the proposed method.

  16. Development of innovative methods for risk assessment in high-rise construction based on clustering of risk factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okolelova, Ella; Shibaeva, Marina; Shalnev, Oleg

    2018-03-01

    The article analyses risks in high-rise construction in terms of investment value with account of the maximum probable loss in case of risk event. The authors scrutinized the risks of high-rise construction in regions with various geographic, climatic and socio-economic conditions that may influence the project environment. Risk classification is presented in general terms, that includes aggregated characteristics of risks being common for many regions. Cluster analysis tools, that allow considering generalized groups of risk depending on their qualitative and quantitative features, were used in order to model the influence of the risk factors on the implementation of investment project. For convenience of further calculations, each type of risk is assigned a separate code with the number of the cluster and the subtype of risk. This approach and the coding of risk factors makes it possible to build a risk matrix, which greatly facilitates the task of determining the degree of impact of risks. The authors clarified and expanded the concept of the price risk, which is defined as the expected value of the event, 105 which extends the capabilities of the model, allows estimating an interval of the probability of occurrence and also using other probabilistic methods of calculation.

  17. Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

    2013-12-01

    In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

  18. A Review on Methods for Assessing Risk Factors of the Upper Limb Disorders among Cashiers in Grocery Retail Industries

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad Zuhaidi Muhammad Fareez; Abdol Rahman Mohd Nasrull

    2017-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the various methods that have been developed for the assessment of risk factors for upper limb disorders among cashiers in grocery retail industries. This paper is essential as upper limb disorders have been known as one of the prime cause of work-related disability in various countries. The methods used for the assessment were the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) questionnaire, the Assessment of Repetitive Tasks (ART), the Job Strain Index ...

  19. A simplified method for quantitative assessment of the relative health and safety risk of environmental management activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Smith, T.H.; Peatross, R.G.; Stepan, I.E.

    1996-09-01

    This report presents a simplified method to assess the health and safety risk of Environmental Management activities of the US Department of Energy (DOE). The method applies to all types of Environmental Management activities including waste management, environmental restoration, and decontamination and decommissioning. The method is particularly useful for planning or tradeoff studies involving multiple conceptual options because it combines rapid evaluation with a quantitative approach. The method is also potentially applicable to risk assessments of activities other than DOE Environmental Management activities if rapid quantitative results are desired

  20. Risk assessment and economic appraisal of protection methods for the Tarascon-Arles railway embankment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheetham Mark

    2016-01-01

    ., existing geotechnical conditions and the railway embankment structure were required to undertake the risk assessment. For each hydraulic loading scenario, a detailed economic appraisal was undertaken for each method of protection involving the evaluation of damages associated with disruption to train services and the associated costs to repair the structure. The final stage of the project involved integrating the economic assessment into a wider reaching multi-criteria analysis including indicators for train security, maintainability and environmental impact aspects. The multi-criteria approach was tested under two management strategies to evaluate the effectiveness of each embankment protection system. This paper outlines how the risk assessment, economic appraisal and management-strategy based multi-criteria approach resulted in a highly optimized system of embankment protection with significant gains in terms of both reduced cost of implementation and environmental enhancement whilst maintaining the high levels of railway security required by SNCF-RESEAU.

  1. Tsunami risk assessment for facility group over a wide area using inundation assessment method considering energy conservation law

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukutani, Yo; Imamura, Fumihiko; Tokunaga, Takeshi; Sato, Ichiro

    2015-01-01

    We propose a quantitative evaluation method of overall tsunami risk that the entire facility group over a wide area holds. We considerably reduced the calculation cost for tsunami inundation depth by adopting the evaluation method using energy conservation law as compared with the evaluation method using non-linear long wave equation. For financial institutions such as banks and insurance companies with contractors over a wide area and business companies with multiple their assets and facilities in various places, the proposed evaluation method in this study could be a useful approach to implement their risk-based management decisions for tsunami risk. (author)

  2. A method for assessing frost damage risk in sweet cherry orchards of South Patagonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cittadini, E.D.; Ridder, de N.; Peri, P.L.; Keulen, van H.

    2006-01-01

    Quantification of frost damage risk is important in planning the development of new orchard areas and for decision-making on design and installation of frost control systems. The objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive method to quantify frost damage risk in different sweet cherry

  3. Integrate life-cycle assessment and risk analysis results, not methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Igor; Trump, Benjamin D; Wender, Ben A; Seager, Thomas P; Kennedy, Alan J; Keisler, Jeffrey M

    2017-08-04

    Two analytic perspectives on environmental assessment dominate environmental policy and decision-making: risk analysis (RA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA). RA focuses on management of a toxicological hazard in a specific exposure scenario, while LCA seeks a holistic estimation of impacts of thousands of substances across multiple media, including non-toxicological and non-chemically deleterious effects. While recommendations to integrate the two approaches have remained a consistent feature of environmental scholarship for at least 15 years, the current perception is that progress is slow largely because of practical obstacles, such as a lack of data, rather than insurmountable theoretical difficulties. Nonetheless, the emergence of nanotechnology presents a serious challenge to both perspectives. Because the pace of nanomaterial innovation far outstrips acquisition of environmentally relevant data, it is now clear that a further integration of RA and LCA based on dataset completion will remain futile. In fact, the two approaches are suited for different purposes and answer different questions. A more pragmatic approach to providing better guidance to decision-makers is to apply the two methods in parallel, integrating only after obtaining separate results.

  4. Safety assessment of nuclear medicine practice using the Risk Matrix Method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cruz, Dumenigo; Cruz, Yoanis; Soler, Karen; Guerrero, Mayka

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the main results from the application of the methodology of Risk Matrices in a hypothetical service / department of the Nuclear medicine that realize metabolic radiotherapy treatment and diagnostic studies with 131 I and 99 m Tc and 18 F. We could identify major equipment failures and human errors that could potentially lead to a accident in practice. For each analyzed initiating events evaluated the frequency of occurrence, identified key existing defenses to avoid the accident and assessed the potential consequences of an accident if this comes to fruition. With this methodology we could identify which accident sequences increased risk and to propose means to reduce the risk in such cases. As a result of this work was developed the 'RMA Nuclear Medicine' computer tools that will apply this methodology in nuclear medicine services that need to do similar risk assessments

  5. [Development of HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men based on Delphi method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L L; Jiang, Z; Song, W L; Ding, Y Y; Xu, J; He, N

    2017-10-10

    Objective: To develop a HIV infection risk assessment tool for men who have sex with men (MSM) based on Delphi method. Methods: After an exhaustive literature review, we used Delphi method to determine the specific items and relative risk scores of the assessment tool through two rounds of specialist consultation and overall consideration of the opinions and suggestions of 17 specialists. Results: The positivity coefficient through first and second round specialist consultation was 100.0 % and 94.1 % , respectively. The mean of authority coefficients ( Cr ) was 0.86. Kendall's W coefficient of the specialist consultation was 0.55 for the first round consultation (χ(2)=84.426, P risk assessment tool for MSM has 8 items. Conclusions: The HIV infection risk assessment tool for MSM, developed under the Delphi method, can be used in the evaluation of HIV infection risk in MSM and individualized prevention and intervention. However, the reliability and validity of this risk assessment tool need to be further evaluated.

  6. Risk Assessment for Distribution Systems Using an Improved PEM-Based Method Considering Wind and Photovoltaic Power Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingwu Gong

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The intermittency and variability of permeated distributed generators (DGs could cause many critical security and economy risks to distribution systems. This paper applied a certain mathematical distribution to imitate the output variability and uncertainty of DGs. Then, four risk indices—EENS (expected energy not supplied, PLC (probability of load curtailment, EFLC (expected frequency of load curtailment, and SI (severity index—were established to reflect the system risk level of the distribution system. For the certain mathematical distribution of the DGs’ output power, an improved PEM (point estimate method-based method was proposed to calculate these four system risk indices. In this improved PEM-based method, an enumeration method was used to list the states of distribution systems, and an improved PEM was developed to deal with the uncertainties of DGs, and the value of load curtailment in distribution systems was calculated by an optimal power flow algorithm. Finally, the effectiveness and advantages of this proposed PEM-based method for distribution system assessment were verified by testing a modified IEEE 30-bus system. Simulation results have shown that this proposed PEM-based method has a high computational accuracy and highly reduced computational costs compared with other risk assessment methods and is very effective for risk assessments.

  7. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  8. An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid

  9. Assessment of landslide risk using gis and statistical methods in kysuce region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barančoková Mária

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The landslide susceptibility was assessed based on multivariation analysis. The input parameters were represented by lithology, land use, slope inclination and average annual precipitation. These parameters were evaluated as independent variables, and the existing landslides as dependent variables. The individual input parameters were reclassified and spatially adjusted. Spatial analysis resulted in 15 988 combinations of input parameters representing the homogeneous condition unit (HCU . Based on the landslide density within individual units, the HCU polygons have been classified according to landslide risk into stable, conditionally stable, conditionally stable and unstable (subdivided into low, medium and high landslide risk. A total of 2002 HCU s were affected by landslides, and the remaining 13 986 were not affected. The total HCU area affected by landslides is about 156.92 km2 (20.1%. Stable areas covered 623.01 km2 (79.8%, and conditionally stable areas covered 228.77 km2 (29.33% out of this area. Unstable areas were divided into three levels of landslide risk - low, medium and high risk. An area of 111.19 km2 (14.3% represents low landslide risk, medium risk 29.7 km2 (3.8% and 16.01 km2 (2% represents high risk. Since Zlín Formation lithological unit covers approximately one-third of the study area, it also influences the overall landslide risk assessment. This lithological formation covers the largest area within all landslide risk classes as well as in conditionally stable areas. The most frequent slope class was in the range of 14-19. The higher susceptibility of Zlín Formation to landslides is caused mainly by different geomorphological value of claystone and sandstone sequence. The higher share of claystone results in higher susceptibility of this formation to exogenous degradation processes.

  10. A Review on Methods for Assessing Risk Factors of the Upper Limb Disorders among Cashiers in Grocery Retail Industries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Zuhaidi Muhammad Fareez

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of the various methods that have been developed for the assessment of risk factors for upper limb disorders among cashiers in grocery retail industries. This paper is essential as upper limb disorders have been known as one of the prime cause of work-related disability in various countries. The methods used for the assessment were the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH questionnaire, the Assessment of Repetitive Tasks (ART, the Job Strain Index (JSI and the Occupational Repetitive Actions (OCRA Checklist. DASH questionnaire is a structured interview in determining the prevalence of the upper limb disorders, while ART, the JSI and OCRA Checklist act as a direct observation in examining the involvement of risk factors. Basically, these tools dealt with the measurements of symptoms, posture observation, and workplace risk assessment, as they are the most relevant tools for assessing the risk factors faced by the workers in grocery industries. The use of these tools assessed the risk factors and consequently reduces the risk of injuries among the workers.

  11. Risk assessments for mixtures: technical methods commonly used in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    A brief (20 minute) talk on the technical approaches used by EPA and other US agencies to assess risks posed by combined exposures to one or more chemicals. The talk systemically reviews the methodologies (whole-mixtures and component-based approaches) that are or have been used ...

  12. Optimization method to determine mass transfer variables in a PWR crud deposition risk assessment tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Do, Chuong; Hussey, Dennis; Wells, Daniel M.; Epperson, Kenny

    2016-01-01

    Optimization numerical method was implemented to determine several mass transfer coefficients in a crud-induced power shift risk assessment code. The approach was to utilize a multilevel strategy that targets different model parameters that first changes the major order variables, mass transfer inputs, then calibrates the minor order variables, crud source terms, according to available plant data. In this manner, the mass transfer inputs are effectively simplified as 'dependent' on the crud source terms. Two optimization studies were performed using DAKOTA, a design and analysis toolkit, with the difference between the runs, being the number of model runs using BOA, allowed for adjusting the crud source terms, therefore, reducing the uncertainty with calibration. The result of the first case showed that the current best estimated values for the mass transfer coefficients, which were derived from first principle analysis, can be considered an optimized set. When the run limit of BOA was increased for the second case, an improvement in the prediction was obtained with the results deviating slightly from the best estimated values. (author)

  13. Summary of EPA's risk assessment results from the analysis of alternative methods of low-level waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandrowski, M.S.; Hung, C.Y.; Meyer, G.L.; Rogers, V.C.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation of the potential health risk and individual exposure from a broad number of disposal alternatives is an important part of EPA's program to develop generally applicable environmental standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive wastes (LLW). The Agency has completed an analysis of the potential population health risks and maximum individual exposures from ten disposal methods under three different hydrogeological and climatic settings. This paper briefly describes the general input and analysis procedures used in the risk assessment for LLW disposal and presents their preliminary results. Some important lessons learned from simulating LLW disposal under a large variety of methods and conditions are identified

  14. Risk assessment methods in radiotherapy: Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA); Los metodos de analisis de riesgo en radioterapia: Analisis Probabilistico de seguridad (APS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez Vera, M. L.; Perez Mulas, A.; Delgado, J. M.; Barrientos Ontero, M.; Somoano, F.; Alvarez Garcia, C.; Rodriguez Marti, M.

    2011-07-01

    The understanding of accidents that have occurred in radiotherapy and the lessons learned from them are very useful to prevent repetition, but there are other risks that have not been detected to date. With a view to identifying and preventing such risks, proactive methods successfully applied in other fields, such as probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), have been developed. (Author)

  15. A novel method for assessing risks to pollinators from plant protection products using honeybees as a model species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmaz, Stefania; Potts, Simon G; Vighi, Marco

    2010-10-01

    Pollination is one of the most important ecosystem services in agroecosystems and supports food production. Pollinators are potentially at risk being exposed to pesticides and the main route of exposure is direct contact, in some cases ingestion, of contaminated materials such as pollen, nectar, flowers and foliage. To date there are no suitable methods for predicting pesticide exposure for pollinators, therefore official procedures to assess pesticide risk are based on a Hazard Quotient. Here we develop a procedure to assess exposure and risk for pollinators based on the foraging behaviour of honeybees (Apis mellifera) and using this species as indicator representative of pollinating insects. The method was applied in 13 European field sites with different climatic, landscape and land use characteristics. The level of risk during the crop growing season was evaluated as a function of the active ingredients used and application regime. Risk levels were primarily determined by the agronomic practices employed (i.e. crop type, pest control method, pesticide use), and there was a clear temporal partitioning of risks through time. Generally the risk was higher in sites cultivated with permanent crops, such as vineyard and olive, than in annual crops, such as cereals and oil seed rape. The greatest level of risk is generally found at the beginning of the growing season for annual crops and later in June-July for permanent crops.

  16. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  17. Health, safety and environment risk assessment in gas pipelines by indexing method:case of Kermanshah Sanandaj oil pipeline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hamidi

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Background and AimsUsing pipelines for oil products transportation involves ranges of safety, health and environmental risks, this option however, is dominant with numerous  advantages. The purpose of this study was; relative risk assessment of abovementioned risk in Kermanshah-Sanandaj Oil Pipeline.MethodsThe method used in this study was Kent Muhlbauer method in which relative risk was assessed using third-party damage, corrosion, design, incorrect operations and leak impact  factor.ResultsOnce applying this method, collection of required data and performing needed experiments, scoring results showed 96 risk segments along the pipeline length in which lengths 100+860, 101+384 and 103+670 had relative risk scores 9.74, 9.82 and 9.91 respectively and therefore these segments were identified as focal risk points and priority for improvement actions.ConclusionRegarding importance of pipeline failure, inspection and regular patrol along the pipeline route, precise control of cathodic protection of pipeline and using communication technologies such as SCADA or optical fibers along the pipeline route were amongst the mostimportant control action suggested by the study.

  18. A risk assessment method for accidental releases from nuclear power plants in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaper H; Blaauboer RO; Eggink GJ

    1994-01-01

    At present over 200 nuclear power reactors are operational. The question raised is to what extent possible accidents with nuclear power reactors pose a risk for the European population. In this report a method is described for evaluating the probability of death due to stochastic effects, combining

  19. A risk assessment method for accidental releases from nuclear power plants in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaper H; Blaauboer RO; Eggink GJ

    1994-01-01

    At present over 200 nuclear power reactors are operational. The question raised is to what extent possible accidents with nuclear power reactors pose a risk for the European population. In this report a method is described for evaluating the probability of death due to stochastic effects,

  20. Environmental risk assessment of low density polyethylene unit using the method of failure mode and effect analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salati Parinaz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The ninth olefin plan of Arya Sasol Petrochemical Company (A.S.P.C. is regarded the largest gas Olefin Unit located on Pars Special Economic Energy Zone (P.S.E.E.Z. Considering the importance of the petrochemical unit, its environmental assessment seems necessary to identify and reduce potential hazards. For this purpose, after determining the scope of the study area, identification and measurement of the environmental parameters, environmental risk assessment of the unit was carried out using Environment Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (EFMEA. Using the noted method, sources causing environmental risks were identified, rated and prioritized. Beside, the impacts of the environmental aspects derived from the unit activities as well as their consequences were also analyzed. Furthermore, the identified impacts were prioritized based on Risk Priority Number (RPN and severity level of the consequences imposed on the affected environment. After performing statistical calculations, it was found that the environmental aspects owing the risk priority number higher than 15 have a high level of risk. Results obtained from Low Density Polyethylene Unit revealed that the highest risk belongs to the emergency vent system with risk priority number equal to 48. It is occurred due to imperfect performance of the reactor safety system leading to the emissions of ethylene gas, particles, and radioactive steam as well as air and noise pollutions. Results derived from secondary assessment of the environmental aspects, through difference in calculated RPN and activities risk levels showed that employing modern methods and risk assessment are have remarkably reduced the severity of risk and consequently detracted the damages and losses incurred on the environment.

  1. RISK ASSESSMENT IN PROJECT PLANNING USING FMEA AND CRITICAL PATH METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Milena CHOLES ARVILLA

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper is based upon the research undertaken for the development of the doctoral thesis “Management of software projects based on object-oriented technology”. The study examines the existing risk management practices commonly used for classic software development. The goal is to integrate the elements of the traditional risk management methodologies to create a new agile risk management methodology. The thesis focuses on techniques that can be easily implemented in extreme programming (XP and SCRUM. This study is motivated by the following research questions: What are the elements of existing quality assurance tools that could meet the principles of agile development? And is it possible to use risk estimation for improving quality in agile projects? The thesis presents a synthesis of the most common risk management techniques, as well as an introduction to agile methods XP and SCRUM. The proposal integrates the concepts of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis into the iterative life cycle of an agile software project. The thesis presents a metamodel which integrates the concepts of agile development methodologies: SCRUM and XP with the FMEA concepts for risk quantification. The model was partly implemented into a real development project. Partial results show the improvement in early identification of failures and allowed to reconsider the Sprint plan.

  2. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  3. Analysis and Assessment of Operation Risk for Hybrid AC/DC Power System based on the Monte Carlo Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiaojing; Li, Qiang; Zhang, Hao; Guo, Ziming; Zhao, Kun; Li, Xinpeng

    2018-06-01

    Based on the Monte Carlo method, an improved risk assessment method for hybrid AC/DC power system with VSC station considering the operation status of generators, converter stations, AC lines and DC lines is proposed. According to the sequential AC/DC power flow algorithm, node voltage and line active power are solved, and then the operation risk indices of node voltage over-limit and line active power over-limit are calculated. Finally, an improved two-area IEEE RTS-96 system is taken as a case to analyze and assessment its operation risk. The results show that the proposed model and method can intuitively and directly reflect the weak nodes and weak lines of the system, which can provide some reference for the dispatching department.

  4. Analysis and Assessment of Operation Risk for Hybrid AC/DC Power System based on the Monte Carlo Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Xiaojing

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the Monte Carlo method, an improved risk assessment method for hybrid AC/DC power system with VSC station considering the operation status of generators, converter stations, AC lines and DC lines is proposed. According to the sequential AC/DC power flow algorithm, node voltage and line active power are solved, and then the operation risk indices of node voltage over-limit and line active power over-limit are calculated. Finally, an improved two-area IEEE RTS-96 system is taken as a case to analyze and assessment its operation risk. The results show that the proposed model and method can intuitively and directly reflect the weak nodes and weak lines of the system, which can provide some reference for the dispatching department.

  5. A New Method for Post-introduction Risk Assessment of Biological Invasions Among Introduced Shrubs in Developing Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seburanga, J L; Bizuru, E; Mwavu, E N; Kampungu, K G; Gatesire, T; Kaplin, B A

    2016-03-01

    Risk-assessment methods are useful in collecting data that can help decision making to prevent the introduction of new species that have the potential of invading as well as in management of established taxa. Not only the complexity and unaffordability of available pre-introduction risk-assessment models make them rarely or inconsistently applied in the least-developed countries, but also there is lack of tools to assess the status of already introduced plant species. In this study, an affordable and rapid method of assessment of invasiveness among introduced plant species was developed and tested in Rwanda. This method defines three invasion stages (potential, effective, and suppressive invaders) and four levels of risk assessment: post-introduction assessment of species inherent invasive potential (Level 1), post-establishment assessment of species capacity of regeneration (Level 2), post-naturalization assessment of species range of occurrence and ability for long-distance dispersal (Level 3), and post-naturalization assessment of species ability to outcompete other plants in the community and transform the landscape (Level 4). A review of invasive species in Rwanda was developed through desk review, examination of herbarium records, and vegetation surveys. This method should be applicable in other countries that lack the means for a more conventional scientific investigation or under any circumstance where a quick and inexpensive assessment is needed. The method could be useful to environmental managers for timely intervention with strategies specific to different stages of invasion (post-introduction, post-establishment, or post-naturalization) and allocate resources accordingly.

  6. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort D. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2015-11-30

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed both at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and subsequently at Pennsylvania State University. The research project can be divided into three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment.

  7. RECOVERY ACT - Methods for Decision under Technological Change Uncertainty and Risk Assessment for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webster, Mort David [MIT

    2015-03-10

    This report presents the final outcomes and products of the project as performed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The research project consists of three main components: methodology development for decision-making under uncertainty, improving the resolution of the electricity sector to improve integrated assessment, and application of these methods to integrated assessment. Results in each area is described in the report.

  8. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgård Olsen, Anders; Zhou, Qianqian; Linde, Jens Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD) due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change...... adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost...... of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift...

  9. Development and application of a novel method for regional assessment of groundwater contamination risk in the Songhua River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nixdorf, Erik; Sun, Yuanyuan; Lin, Mao; Kolditz, Olaf

    2017-12-15

    The main objective of this study is to quantify the groundwater contamination risk of Songhua River Basin by applying a novel approach of integrating public datasets, web services and numerical modelling techniques. To our knowledge, this study is the first to establish groundwater risk maps for the entire Songhua River Basin, one of the largest and most contamination-endangered river basins in China. Index-based groundwater risk maps were created with GIS tools at a spatial resolution of 30arc sec by combining the results of groundwater vulnerability and hazard assessment. Groundwater vulnerability was evaluated using the DRASTIC index method based on public datasets at the highest available resolution in combination with numerical groundwater modelling. As a novel approach to overcome data scarcity at large scales, a web mapping service based data query was applied to obtain an inventory for potential hazardous sites within the basin. The groundwater risk assessment demonstrated that contamination risk. These areas were mainly located in the vast plain areas with hotspots particularly in the Changchun metropolitan area. Moreover, groundwater levels and pollution point sources were found to play a significantly larger impact in assessing these areas than originally assumed by the index scheme. Moderate contamination risk was assigned to 27% of the aquifers, predominantly associated with less densely populated agricultural areas. However, the majority of aquifer area in the sparsely populated mountain ranges displayed low groundwater contamination risk. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that this novel method is valid for regional assessments of groundwater contamination risk. Despite limitations in resolution and input data consistency, the obtained groundwater contamination risk maps will be beneficial for regional and local decision-making processes with regard to groundwater protection measures, particularly if other data availability is limited. Copyright

  10. Health-safety and environmental risk assessment of power plants using multi criteria decision making method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jozi Ali Seyed

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Growing importance of environmental issues at global and regional levels including pollution of water, air etc. as well as the outcomes such as global warming and climate change has led to being considered environmental aspects as effective factors for power generation. Study ahead, aims at examination of risks resulting from activities of Yazd Combined Cycle Power Plant located in Iran. Method applied in the research is analytical hierarchy process. After identification of factors causing risk, the analytical hierarchy structure of the power plant risks were designed and weight of the criteria and sub-criteria were calculated by intensity probability product using Eigenvector Method and EXPERT CHOICE Software as well. Results indicate that in technological, health-safety, biophysical and socio economic sections of the power plant, factors influenced by the power plant activities like fire and explosion, hearing loss, quantity of groundwater, power generation are among the most important factors causing risk in the power plant. The drop in underground water levels is the most important natural consequence influenced on Yazd Combined Cycle Power Plant.

  11. Modified risk evaluation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Tilden, J.A.; Toyooka, R.T.

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a structured and cost-oriented process to determine risks associated with nuclear material and other security interests. Financial loss is a continuing concern for US Department of Energy contractors. In this paper risk is equated with uncertainty of cost impacts to material assets or human resources. The concept provides a method for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated protection system, which includes operations, safety, emergency preparedness, and safeguards and security. The concept is suitable for application to sabotage evaluations. The protection of assets is based on risk associated with cost impacts to assets and the potential for undesirable events. This will allow managers to establish protection priorities in terms of the cost and the potential for the event, given the current level of protection

  12. Primary care physicians’ perspectives on computer-based health risk assessment tools for chronic diseases: a mixed methods study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teja Voruganti

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background Health risk assessment tools compute an individual’s risk of developing a disease. Routine use of such tools by primary care physicians (PCPs is potentially useful in chronic disease prevention. We sought physicians’ awareness and perceptions of the usefulness, usability and feasibility of performing assessments with computer-based risk assessment tools in primary care settings.Methods Focus groups and usability testing with a computer-based risk assessment tool were conducted with PCPs from both university-affiliated and community-based practices. Analysis was derived from grounded theory methodology.Results PCPs (n = 30 were aware of several risk assessment tools although only select tools were used routinely. The decision to use a tool depended on how use impacted practice workflow and whether the tool had credibility. Participants felt that embedding tools in the electronic medical records (EMRs system might allow for health information from the medical record to auto-populate into the tool. User comprehension of risk could also be improved with computer-based interfaces that present risk in different formats.Conclusions In this study, PCPs chose to use certain tools more regularly because of usability and credibility. Despite there being differences in the particular tools a clinical practice used, there was general appreciation for the usefulness of tools for different clinical situations. Participants characterised particular features of an ideal tool, feeling strongly that embedding risk assessment tools in the EMR would maximise accessibility and use of the tool for chronic disease management. However, appropriate practice workflow integration and features that facilitate patient understanding at point-of-care are also essential. 

  13. An integral approach to the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarzblat, M.; Arellano, J.

    1987-01-01

    In this chapter some of the work developed at the Instituto de Investigaciones Electricas in the area of probabilistic risk analysis are presented. In this area, work has been basically focused in the following directions: development and implementation of methods, and applications to real systems. The first part of this paper describes the area of methods development and implementation, presenting an integrated package of computer programs for fault tree analysis. In the second part some of the most important applications developed for real systems are presented. (author)

  14. Preliminary results from the application of risk matrix method for safety assessment in industrial radiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez G, A.; Cruz, D.; Truppa, W.; Aravena, M.; Tamayo, B.

    2015-09-01

    Although the uses of ionizing radiation in industry are subject to procedures that provide a high level of safety, experience has shown that equipment failure, human errors, or the combination of both that can trigger accidental exposures may occur. Traditionally, the radiation safety checks whether these industrial practices (industrial radiography, industrial irradiators, among others) are sufficiently safe to prevent similar accidental exposures already occurred, so that becomes dependent on the published information and not always answers questions like: What other events can occur, or what other risks are present? Taking into account the results achieved by the Foro Iberoamericano de Organismos Reguladores Radiologicos y Nucleares, its leading position in the use of techniques of risk analysis in radioactive facilities and the need to develop a proactive approach to the prevention of accidents arising from the use of ionizing radiations in the industry, it intends to apply the risk analysis technique known as Risk Matrix to a hypothetical reference entity for the region in which industrial radiography is performed. In this paper the results of the first stage of this study are shown, that is the identification of initiating events (IE) and barriers that help mitigate the consequences of such IE, so that can appreciate the applicability of this method to industrial radiography services, to reduce the risk to acceptable levels. The fundamental advantage associated with the application of this methodology is that can be applied by the professionals working in the service and identifies specific weaknesses that from the point of view of safety there, so they can be prioritized resources depending on risk reduction. (Author)

  15. Summary of PRA assessment of transient accident risks, human factors considerations, and PRA methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carnino, A.

    1984-01-01

    This chapter reviews the progress made in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) area to help in solving operational transient problems and to integrate human factors considerations, as discussed at the American Nuclear Society Topical Meeting on Anticipated and Abnormal Plant Transients in Light Water Reactors. Topics considered include core-melt frequency, external events (e.g., fires, floods), diagnostic errors, and operator aids. It is concluded that confidence in PRA results, predictions and uses for decisions in both the safety of the plants and their availability will improve

  16. Creating a spatially-explicit index: a method for assessing the global wildfire-water risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

    2017-04-01

    The wildfire-water risk (WWR) has been defined as the potential for wildfires to adversely affect water resources that are important for downstream ecosystems and human water needs for adequate water quantity and quality, therefore compromising the security of their water supply. While tools and methods are numerous for watershed-scale risk analysis, the development of a toolbox for the large-scale evaluation of the wildfire risk to water security has only started recently. In order to provide managers and policy-makers with an adequate tool, we implemented a method for the spatial analysis of the global WWR based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. As this approach heavily relies on data, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. When appropriate, we applied a hydrological routing function to our indicators in order to simulate downstream accumulation of potentially harmful material. Each indicator was then assigned a DPSIR category. We collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the WWR. A thorough sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to understand the relationship between the final risk values and the spatial pattern of each category used during the indexation. For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, to get a sense of regional DPSIR specificities. This rather simple method does not necessitate the use of complex physical models and provides a scalable and efficient tool

  17. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 2: Supporting documents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tortorelli, J.P. [ed.] [Lockheed Idaho Technologies Co., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains presentation material and a transcript of the workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report.

  18. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 2: Supporting documents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tortorelli, J.P.

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains presentation material and a transcript of the workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC's intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report

  19. Feedback Survey on the Usability of the OFFERA Method for Assessing an Exposure Risks of Computer Work Related to WMSDs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahman Mohd Nasrull Abdol

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The OFFERA method was designed to assess the exposure of the office workstation risk factors associated with WMSDs. This method involved six domains which include chair, desk, input device, monitor, accessories, and the environment. The purpose of this study was to assess the usability of the OFFERA method for assessing exposure risks of computer work related to WMSDs. The participants were trained to conduct the OFFERA method. Trial assessments on three different office jobs were conducted. The usability of the OFFERA method was identified based on the feedback questionnaire survey obtained from 44 practitioners (undergraduate students after the training. From the usability test, the OFFERA method was found be easy to use (mean 4.48 ± 0.698 and quick to use (mean 4.48 ± 0.821. However, the observers found that the font used was too small hence it was difficult to read the instruction (mean 3.93 ± 1.096. The pictures or illustrations in the OFFERA tool were also recorded as unclear based on the relatively low score for 18 items (mean 3.73± 1.128. Besides that, all participants agreed that OFFERA method is user-friendly, cost effective and applicable to a wide range of office-related activities.

  20. Risk Assessment for Water Supply Systems in Iran During Crises Using the RAMCAP Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jalal Nakhaei

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Heavy damages might be inflicted upon national infrastructure due to a variety of disasters caused by natural events or human activities. One example of such vital infrastructure at risk is the water supply system. At the time of crises, the water supply system is expected to continue supplying water to citizens, or the crisis will be augmented. This warrants the potential threats and their effects on the system to be identified and evaluated in an attempt to determine the vulnerable systems and sites toward proper solutions. In this study, the assets and the associated threats of the water supply are identified followed by a vulnerability analysis. The RAMCAP method is then employed to determine values for the risks associated with each of the assets including dams, water storage systems, pumping stations, treatment plants, water wells, and building units. Methods are proposed to reduce these risks before a crisis occurs. In addition, basic threats due to air-missile and Cyber attacks are also considered.

  1. Molecular biology methods in assessing radiation-induced hereditary risks in humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiuru, A.

    2004-12-01

    Effort to predict the genetic consequences for humans of exposure to ionising radiation has been one of the most important issues of human genetics over the past 60 years. To date, there has been little experimental knowledge on the genetic risks of human exposure to ionising radiation. Radiation-induced deleterious hereditary effects have not been detected in human populations - not even among the offspring of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This does not mean deleterious hereditary effects do not exist in humans, but rather that they are small and/or difficult to detect because the normal incidence of inherited abnormalities is quite high in the human population. Thus, assessment of radiation-induced hereditary risks in humans has been based on the common knowledge of human heredity and on animal experiments. However, recent data have suggested that hyper-variable tandem repeat minisatellite loci provide a useful and sensitive experimental approach for monitoring radiation-induced germline mutations in humans. In order to investigate the feasibility of the minisatellite mutation screening system in assessing radiation-induced hereditary risks in humans, we examined the amount of hereditary minisatellite mutations among the offspring of Estonian Chernobyl cleanup workers. The men studied received a median radiation dose of 109 mSv while working on the cleanup activities after the Chernobyl accident. We compared the minisatellite mutation rates of 155 children born to 147 Estonian Chernobyl cleanup workers after the accident to those of their 148 siblings born prior to it. In addition, 44 Estonian families, where the father had not been exposed to radiation, composed an additional control group. In all of these families, the paternity of the children was ascertained by using 5 minisatellite loci (APOB, HRAS, MCOB19, MCT118, and YNZ-22) in PCR-based analyses. Other 8 minisatellite loci (B6.7, CEB1, CEB15, CEB25, CEB36, MS1, MS31, and MS32) were used

  2. An urban flood risk assessment method using the Bayesian Network approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åström, Helena Lisa Alexandra

    and water resources management studies, whereas climate risk studies have not yet fully adapted the BN method. A BN is a graphical model that utilizes causal relationships to describe the overall system where risk occurs. A BN can be further extended into a Bayesian Influence diagram (ID) by including...... for inclusion of multiple hazards in FRAs. Lastly, the inclusion of multiple hazards in FRA may be challenging, among others because concurrent events are rare. However, with climate change, the annual variation of hazards may change, and concurrent events may become more frequent. Large-scale atmospheric...... circulation influences local and regional climate and is considered an important factor when aiming at improving our understanding of local weather conditions and the occurrence of extreme events. Hence, this thesis presents a study that explores the relationship between flood generating hazards and large...

  3. A new method to quantify the health risks from sources of perfluoroalkyl substances, combined with positive matrix factorization and risk assessment models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jiao; Shi, Guo-Liang; Guo, Chang-Sheng; Wang, Hai-Ting; Tian, Ying-Ze; Huangfu, Yan-Qi; Zhang, Yuan; Feng, Yin-Chang; Xu, Jian

    2018-01-01

    A hybrid model based on the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model and the health risk assessment model for assessing risks associated with sources of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in water was established and applied at Dianchi Lake to test its applicability. The new method contains 2 stages: 1) the sources of PFASs were apportioned by the PMF model and 2) the contribution of health risks from each source was calculated by the new hybrid model. Two factors were extracted by PMF, with factor 1 identified as aqueous fire-fighting foams source and factor 2 as fluoropolymer manufacturing and processing and perfluorooctanoic acid production source. The health risk of PFASs in the water assessed by the health risk assessment model was 9.54 × 10 -7  a -1 on average, showing no obvious adverse effects to human health. The 2 sources' risks estimated by the new hybrid model ranged from 2.95 × 10 -10 to 6.60 × 10 -6  a -1 and from 1.64 × 10 -7 to 1.62 × 10 -6  a -1 , respectively. The new hybrid model can provide useful information on the health risks of PFAS sources, which is helpful for pollution control and environmental management. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:107-115. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  4. Cumulative Mass and NIOSH Variable Lifting Index Method for Risk Assessment: Possible Relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stucchi, Giulia; Battevi, Natale; Pandolfi, Monica; Galinotti, Luca; Iodice, Simona; Favero, Chiara

    2018-02-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to explore whether the Variable Lifting Index (VLI) can be corrected for cumulative mass and thus test its efficacy in predicting the risk of low-back pain (LBP). Background A validation study of the VLI method was published in this journal reporting promising results. Although several studies highlighted a positive correlation between cumulative load and LBP, cumulative mass has never been considered in any of the studies investigating the relationship between manual material handling and LBP. Method Both VLI and cumulative mass were calculated for 2,374 exposed subjects using a systematic approach. Due to high variability of cumulative mass values, a stratification within VLI categories was employed. Dummy variables (1-4) were assigned to each class and used as a multiplier factor for the VLI, resulting in a new index (VLI_CMM). Data on LBP were collected by occupational physicians at the study sites. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of acute LBP within levels of risk exposure when compared with a control group formed by 1,028 unexposed subjects. Results Data showed greatly variable values of cumulative mass across all VLI classes. The potential effect of cumulative mass on damage emerged as not significant ( p value = .6526). Conclusion When comparing VLI_CMM with raw VLI, the former failed to prove itself as a better predictor of LBP risk. Application To recognize cumulative mass as a modifier, especially for lumbar degenerative spine diseases, authors of future studies should investigate potential association between the VLI and other damage variables.

  5. Use of a risk assessment method to improve the safety of negative pressure wound therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lelong, Anne-Sophie; Martelli, Nicolas; Bonan, Brigitte; Prognon, Patrice; Pineau, Judith

    2014-06-01

    To conduct a risk analysis of the negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) care process and to improve the safety of NPWT, a working group of nurses, hospital pharmacists, physicians and hospital managers performed a risk analysis for the process of NPWT care. The failure modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) method was used for this analysis. Failure modes and their consequences were defined and classified as a function of their criticality to identify priority actions for improvement. By contrast to classical FMECA, the criticality index (CI) of each consequence was calculated by multiplying occurrence, severity and detection scores. We identified 13 failure modes, leading to 20 different consequences. The CI of consequences was initially 712, falling to 357 after corrective measures were implemented. The major improvements proposed included the establishment of 6-monthly training cycles for nurses, physicians and surgeons and the introduction of computerised prescription for NPWT. The FMECA method also made it possible to prioritise actions as a function of the criticality ranking of consequences and was easily understood and used by the working group. This study is, to our knowledge, the first to use the FMECA method to improve the safety of NPWT. © 2012 The Authors. International Wound Journal © 2012 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  7. An assessment of ecological and case-control methods for estimating lung cancer risk due to indoor radon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stidley, C.A.; Samet, J.M.

    1992-01-01

    Studies of underground miners indicate that indoor radon is an important cause of lung cancer. This finding has raised concern that exposure to radon also causes lung cancer in the general population. Epidemiological studies, including both case-control and ecological approaches, have directly addressed the risks of indoor residential radon; many more case-control studies are in progress. Ecological studies that associate lung-cancer rates with typical indoor radon levels in various geographic areas have not consistently shown positive associations. The results of purportedly negative ecological studies have been used as a basis for questioning the hazards of indoor radon exposure. Because of potentially serious methodologic flaws for testing hypotheses, we examined the ecological method as a tool for assessing lung-cancer risk from indoor radon exposure. We developed a simulation approach that utilizes the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) radon survey data to assign exposures to individuals within counties. Using the computer-generated data, we compared risk estimates obtained by ecological regression methods with those obtained from other regression methods and with the open-quotes trueclose quotes risks used to generate the data. For many of these simulations, the ecological models, while fitting the summary data well, gave risk estimates that differed considerably from the true risks. For some models, the risk estimates were negatively correlated with exposure, although the assumed relationship was positive. Attempts to improve the ecological models by adding smoking variables, including interaction terms, did not always improve the estimates of risk, which are easily affected by model misspecification. Because exposure situations used in the simulations are realistic, our results show that ecological methods may not accurately estimate the lung-cancer risk associated with indoor radon exposure

  8. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  9. Using cognitive pre-testing methods in the development of a new evidenced-based pressure ulcer risk assessment instrument

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Coleman

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Variation in development methods of Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Instruments has led to inconsistent inclusion of risk factors and concerns about content validity. A new evidenced-based Risk Assessment Instrument, the Pressure Ulcer Risk Primary Or Secondary Evaluation Tool - PURPOSE-T was developed as part of a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR funded Pressure Ulcer Research Programme (PURPOSE: RP-PG-0407-10056. This paper reports the pre-test phase to assess and improve PURPOSE-T acceptability, usability and confirm content validity. Methods A descriptive study incorporating cognitive pre-testing methods and integration of service user views was undertaken over 3 cycles comprising PURPOSE-T training, a focus group and one-to-one think-aloud interviews. Clinical nurses from 2 acute and 2 community NHS Trusts, were grouped according to job role. Focus group participants used 3 vignettes to complete PURPOSE-T assessments and then participated in the focus group. Think-aloud participants were interviewed during their completion of PURPOSE-T. After each pre-test cycle analysis was undertaken and adjustment/improvements made to PURPOSE-T in an iterative process. This incorporated the use of descriptive statistics for data completeness and decision rule compliance and directed content analysis for interview and focus group data. Data were collected April 2012-June 2012. Results Thirty-four nurses participated in 3 pre-test cycles. Data from 3 focus groups, 12 think-aloud interviews incorporating 101 PURPOSE-T assessments led to changes to improve instrument content and design, flow and format, decision support and item-specific wording. Acceptability and usability were demonstrated by improved data completion and appropriate risk pathway allocation. The pre-test also confirmed content validity with clinical nurses. Conclusions The pre-test was an important step in the development of the preliminary PURPOSE-T and the

  10. Supplier Risk Assessment Based on Best-Worst Method and K-Means Clustering: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merve Er Kara

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Supplier evaluation and selection is one of the most critical strategic decisions for developing a competitive and sustainable organization. Companies have to consider supplier related risks and threats in their purchasing decisions. In today’s competitive and risky business environment, it is very important to work with reliable suppliers. This study proposes a clustering based approach to group suppliers based on their risk profile. Suppliers of a company in the heavy-machinery sector are assessed based on 17 qualitative and quantitative risk types. The weights of the criteria are determined by using the Best-Worst method. Four factors are extracted by applying Factor Analysis to the supplier risk data. Then k-means clustering algorithm is applied to group core suppliers of the company based on the four risk factors. Three clusters are created with different risk exposure levels. The interpretation of the results provides insights for risk management actions and supplier development programs to mitigate supplier risk.

  11. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  12. Mercury risk assessment combining internal and external exposure methods for a population living near a municipal solid waste incinerator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chunyan; Xie, Han; Ye, Xuejie; Zhang, Haoran; Liu, Maodian; Tong, Yindong; Ou, Langbo; Yuan, Wen; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Xuejun

    2016-12-01

    Risk assessments for human health have been conducted for municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) in many western countries, whereas only a few risk assessments have been performed for MSWIs in developing countries such as China where the use of waste incineration is increasing rapidly. To assess the mercury exposure risks of a population living near the largest MSWI in South China, we combined internal exposure and external exposure assessment with an individual-specific questionnaire. The mercury concentrations in air, soil, and locally collected food around the MSWI were assessed. The total mercury (T-Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) of 447 blood samples from a control group, residential exposure group, and MSWI workers were measured. The internal and external exposures of the subject population were analyzed. Significant difference in MeHg concentrations was observed between the control group and the exposed group, between the control group and the MSWI workers, and between the exposed group and the MSWI workers (median levels: 0.70 μg/L, 0.81 μg/L, and 1.02 μg/L for the control group, exposed group, and MSWI workers, respectively). The MeHg/T-Hg ratio was 0.51 ± 0.19, 0.59 ± 0.17 and 0.58 ± 0.25, respectively. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that MeHg concentrations were positively correlated with the gaseous mercury in the air. Combining internal and external exposure assessment showed that the direct contribution of MSWI emissions was minor compared with the dietary contribution. The external and internal exposures were well matched with each other. This study also suggested that an integrated method combining internal and external exposure assessment with an individual-specific questionnaire is feasible to assess the risks for a population living near a MSWI. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Comparing Methods of Calculating Expected Annual Damage in Urban Pluvial Flood Risk Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Skovgård Olsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the expected annual damage (EAD due to flooding in an urban area is of great interest for urban water managers and other stakeholders. It is a strong indicator for a given area showing how vulnerable it is to flood risk and how much can be gained by implementing e.g., climate change adaptation measures. This study identifies and compares three different methods for estimating the EAD based on unit costs of flooding of urban assets. One of these methods was used in previous studies and calculates the EAD based on a few extreme events by assuming a log-linear relationship between cost of an event and the corresponding return period. This method is compared to methods that are either more complicated or require more calculations. The choice of method by which the EAD is calculated appears to be of minor importance. At all three case study areas it seems more important that there is a shift in the damage costs as a function of the return period. The shift occurs approximately at the 10 year return period and can perhaps be related to the design criteria for sewer systems. Further, it was tested if the EAD estimation could be simplified by assuming a single unit cost per flooded area. The results indicate that within each catchment this may be a feasible approach. However the unit costs varies substantially between different case study areas. Hence it is not feasible to develop unit costs that can be used to calculate EAD, most likely because the urban landscape is too heterogeneous.

  14. Assessment of risk factors for musculoskeletal disorders using the Rapid Office Strain Assessment (ROSA Method and implementing ergonomics intervention programs in Sepah Bank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Nasiri

    2015-07-01

    .Conclusion: Using the ROSA technique was seemed to be beneficialto assess the ergonomic risk factors of office works, and the deficiencies in the workstation can be identified through this method. Moreover,by design and implementation of an educational intervention program along with engineering interventions which comply with the elements of this technique, the defects can be eliminated.

  15. An In Silico Approach for Evaluating a Fraction-Based, Risk Assessment Method for Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Mixtures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Ching Y. Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Both the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MADEP and the Total Petroleum Hydrocarbon Criteria Working Group (TPHCWG developed fraction-based approaches for assessing human health risks posed by total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH mixtures in the environment. Both organizations defined TPH fractions based on their expected environmental fate and by analytical chemical methods. They derived toxicity values for selected compounds within each fraction and used these as surrogates to assess hazard or risk of exposure to the whole fractions. Membership in a TPH fraction is generally defined by the number of carbon atoms in a compound and by a compound's equivalent carbon (EC number index, which can predict its environmental fate. Here, we systematically and objectively re-evaluate the assignment of TPH to specific fractions using comparative molecular field analysis and hierarchical clustering. The approach is transparent and reproducible, reducing inherent reliance on judgment when toxicity information is limited. Our evaluation of membership in these fractions is highly consistent (̃80% on average across various fractions with the empirical approach of MADEP and TPHCWG. Furthermore, the results support the general methodology of mixture risk assessment to assess both cancer and noncancer risk values after the application of fractionation.

  16. Risk Assessment of Total Coliform in X WTP’s Water Production Using Failure Mode And Effect Analysis Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bella Apriliani Amanda

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The greatest risk of drinking water supply is a failure to provide safe drinking water for communities. Based on IPA Kedunguling testing report on March 2016 noted that sample exceeding the quality standart of Peraturan Menteri Kesehatan RI No 492/2010 for the total coliform quality standart. The presence of total coliforms indicating water contamination by pathogen means the water is not safe to consume. The disinfection process has an importance rule in pathogen inactivation. Disinfectant performance is influenced by temperature, pH, turbidity, and the presence of organic materials. One way to control the quality of water produced by using a risk management approach Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (FMEA methods. The potential risks should be measured to determine causes of the problems and find the appropriate risk reduction. The risk assessment is using Risk Priority Number (RPN scale as a basis prioritization of remedial action on issues. Based on identification and risk analysis using FMEA known that the greatest risk of failure is the stipulation of chlorine dose and organic substances (category of high risk level; residual chlorine (category of moderate risk level; turbidity and pH (very low risk level category. Improvement proposal that can be done to reduce total coliforms presence in IPA Kedunguling is by increasing residual chlorine to 0.6 mg/l, set a daily chlorine level, controlling DBPs forming by lowering the concentration of organic precursor using granular activated carbon (GAC or aeration, by lowering the dose of disinfectant, set aside DBPs after the compound is formed using granular activated carbon (GAC, turbidity and pH monitoring, and regularly washing the filters

  17. Pressurization Risk Assessment of CO2 Reservoirs Utilizing Design of Experiments and Response Surface Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyant, E.; Han, W. S.; Kim, K. Y.; Park, E.; Han, K.

    2015-12-01

    Monitoring of pressure buildup can provide explicit information on reservoir integrity and is an appealing tool, however pressure variation is dependent on a variety of factors causing high uncertainty in pressure predictions. This work evaluated pressurization of a reservoir system in the presence of leakage pathways as well as exploring the effects of compartmentalization of the reservoir utilizing design of experiments (Definitive Screening, Box Behnken, Central Composite, and Latin Hypercube designs) and response surface methods. Two models were developed, 1) an idealized injection scenario in order to evaluate the performance of multiple designs, and 2) a complex injection scenario implementing the best performing design to investigate pressurization of the reservoir system. A holistic evaluation of scenario 1, determined that the Central Composite design would be used for the complex injection scenario. The complex scenario evaluated 5 risk factors: reservoir, seal, leakage pathway and fault permeabilities, and horizontal position of the pathway. A total of 60 response surface models (RSM) were developed for the complex scenario with an average R2 of 0.95 and a NRMSE of 0.067. Sensitivity to the input factors was dynamic through space and time; at the earliest time (0.05 years) the reservoir permeability was dominant, and for later times (>0.5 years) the fault permeability became dominant for all locations. The RSM's were then used to conduct a Monte Carlo Analysis to further analyze pressurization risks, identifying the P10, P50, P90 values. This identified the in zone (lower) P90 values as 2.16, 1.77, and 1.53 MPa and above zone values of 1.35, 1.23, 1.09 MPa for monitoring locations 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In summary, the design of experiments and response surface methods allowed for an efficient sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to be conducted permitting a complete evaluation of the pressurization across the entire parameter space.

  18. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  19. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  20. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  1. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  2. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  3. Method for Assessing Risk of Road Accidents in Transportation of School Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pogotovkina, N. S.; Volodkin, P. P.; Demakhina, E. S.

    2017-11-01

    The rationale behind the problem being investigated is explained by the remaining high level of the accident rates with the participation of vehicles carrying groups of children, including school buses, in the Russian Federation over the period of several years. The article is aimed at the identification of new approaches to improve the safety of transportation of schoolchildren in accordance with the Concept of children transportation by buses and the plan for its implementation. The leading approach to solve the problem under consideration is the prediction of accidents in the schoolchildren transportation. The article presents the results of the accident rate analysis with the participation of school buses in the Russian Federation for five years. Besides, a system to monitor the transportation of schoolchildren is proposed; the system will allow analyzing and forecasting traffic accidents which involve buses carrying groups of children, including school buses. In addition, the article presents a methodology for assessing the risk of road accidents during the transportation of schoolchildren.

  4. Pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system in Ireland: methods and response rates

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O’Keeffe, Linda M.

    2014-06-01

    To describe response rates and characteristics associated with response to the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System study in Ireland (PRAMS Ireland). Using hospital discharge records of live births at a large, urban, obstetric hospital, a sampling frame of approximately 2,400 mother-infant pairs were used to alternately sample 1,200 women. Mothers’ information including name, address, parity, age and infant characteristics such as sex and gestational age at delivery were extracted from records. Modes of contact included an invitation letter with option to opt out of the study, three mail surveys, a reminder letter and text message reminder for remaining non-respondents. Sixty-one per cent of women responded to the PRAMS Ireland survey over a 133 day response period. Women aged <30, single women, multiparous women and women with a preterm delivery were less likely to respond. Women participating in PRAMS Ireland were similar to the national birth profile in 2011 which had a mean age of 32, were 40 % primiparous, 33 % single or never married and had a 28 % caesarean section rate. Survey and protocol changes are required to increase response rates above recommended Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) thresholds of 65 % within the recommended 90 day data collection cycle. Additional efforts such as stratification and over-sampling are required to increase representativeness among hard to reach groups such as younger, single and multiparous women before expanding the project to an ongoing, national surveillance system in Ireland.

  5. Development of an analytical method to assess the occupational health risk of therapeutic monoclonal antibodies using LC-HRMS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinders, Lars M H; Klassen, Martin D; Jaeger, Martin; Teutenberg, Thorsten; Tuerk, Jochen

    2018-04-01

    Monoclonal antibodies are a group of commonly used therapeutics, whose occupational health risk is still discussed controversially. The long-term low-dose exposure side effects are insufficiently evaluated; hence, discussions are often based on a theoretical level or extrapolating side effects from therapeutic dosages. While some research groups recommend applying the precautionary principle for monoclonal antibodies, others consider the exposure risk too low for measures taken towards occupational health and safety. However, both groups agree that airborne monoclonal antibodies have the biggest risk potential. Therefore, we developed a peptide-based analytical method for occupational exposure monitoring of airborne monoclonal antibodies. The method will allow collecting data about the occupational exposure to monoclonal antibodies. Thus, the mean daily intake for personnel in pharmacies and the pharmaceutical industry can be determined for the first time and will help to substantiate the risk assessment by relevant data. The introduced monitoring method includes air sampling, sample preparation and detection by liquid chromatography coupled with high-resolution mass spectrometry of individual monoclonal antibodies as well as sum parameter. For method development and validation, a chimeric (rituximab), humanised (trastuzumab) and a fully humanised (daratumumab) monoclonal antibody are used. A limit of detection between 1 μg per sample for daratumumab and 25 μg per sample for the collective peptide is achieved. Graphical abstract Demonstration of the analytical workflow, from the release of monoclonal antibodies to the detection as single substances as well as sum parameter.

  6. Review of problems and methods for radiation risk assessment in the environment of a nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grgic, M.

    1966-01-01

    Radiation impact on the nuclear power plant environment is a very important problem which has to be solved during design and construction. Damage that could be caused by release of radioactive material into the environment should be estimated and the magnitude of nuclear and radiation risk of the power plant should be evaluated. In general the accuracy of estimation is rather poor due to statistical fluctuations of the conditions which influence radioactivity expansion in the environment, especially in the air. Different uncertainties and unresolved problems influence the inaccuracy. Since any real risk should be extremely small compared to potential risk i.e. risk induced by nuclear power plant without any safety measures, even inaccurate estimations are very useful. Method for environmental radiation risk assessment is based on relatively simple models of radiation expansion in the environment and in the air. These models are theoretically solved but they are based on relatively limited number of experimental data. Assessment of the radiation effects on the population health and mortality is an important problem [sl

  7. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  8. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  9. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  10. The Development of Improved Risk Assessment Methods for Use in Industrial Environmental Management Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manners, T.K.

    2006-01-01

    Industrial sites that store or use chemicals are controlled in the UK under the COMAH (Control Of Major Accident Hazards) Regulations 1999 [1] based on their holdings of 'Dangerous Substances'. The COMAH Regulations [1] came into force in 1999 and are the UK's response to the European Union's Seveso II Directive. The purpose of these Regulations [1] is to: - Identify Major Accident Hazards (MAH); - Ensure that control measures are in place to prevent a MAH; - Ensure that mitigatory measures are in place to limit effects if MAH do occur. The UK's Health and Safety Executive (HSE), and the Environment Agency (EA) jointly enforce the Regulations [1]. The fundamental requirement is given in the statement below, which is taken directly from the Regulations [1]. 'Every operator shall take all measures necessary to prevent major accidents and limit their consequences to persons and the environment'. This paper describes the development of a six-step screening methodology designed to identify Major Accidents To The Environment (MATTE) and improved consequence definitions that can be used in risk matrices to define the severity of an environmental fault. The method has been designed to be compatible with existing Environmental Management Systems (EMS) used in the chemical and nuclear industry. (authors)

  11. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  12. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  13. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  14. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Patient Manual Handling in Wards of One of the Hospitals of Tehran using MAPO Method, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sajad Ataei

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Manual handling of disabled patients is one of the important and effective factors in acute low back pain among exposed nurses. The present study was conducted with the objective of quantitative risk assessment of patient manual handling among nurses in wards of one of the hospitals in Tehran using MAPO method. Methods: The present study was conducted as an analytical-cross-sectional study in 26 wards of one of the hospitals in Tehran city. Samples were selected by census method from nurses and paramedics of different wards of hospital. Data collection was performed using demographic information and MAPO checklist. Results: The highest score of MAPO were, respectively, related to wards of DI clinic (score, 14.7, men orthopedic (score, 6.3, and general operating room (score, 57. 53.8% of hospital wards were at the level 2 corrective action, which indicated that the risk of musculoskeletal disorder is 2.4 times higher than level 1 corrective action. Conclusion: Given that the proportion of disabled patient in cooperation and/or partial cooperation, lifting tools, auxiliary, wheelchair, and training have the most role among risk factors for above-mentioned wards, increasing the number of human resources and wheelchair, use of lifting and auxiliary tools and training reduce MAPO score and consequently the risk of musculoskeletal disorders.

  15. Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Banyas Catchment of the Syrian coastal area using GIS and the RISKE method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kattaa, Bassam; Al-Fares, Walid; Al Charideh, Abdul Rahman

    2010-05-01

    Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. "RISK ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPING DISTAL UPPER EXTREMITY DISORDERS BY STRAIN INDEX METHOD IN AN ASSEMBLING ELECTRONIC INDUSTRY"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pourmahabadian

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available The strain index (SI is a substantial advancement and has been devised to analyze ergonomic risks for distal upper extremity (DUE disorders. This semi-quantitative tool allows for the measurement of hazards and does not require unduly lengthy training to begin to use it accurately. Uses of the strain index include analysis of a current job to assess whether it is safe or hazardous, quantification of the risks, and assistance in the initial design of a job or in the redesign of a job. The aim of this study was to assess and analyze risk of developing DUE disorders in different jobs as well as hazard classification in an assembling electronic industry through SI method. Also, DUE disorders prevalence, work-related absenteeism and turnover extracted from SI results were compared and assessed by those obtained by Nordic musculoskeletal questionnaire (NMQ. The findings of this study showed that more than 50% of investigated jobs are categorized as "hazardous" and there is a significant difference between SI mean in hazardous and safe jobs (P < 0.0001. In addition, significant difference was found between prevalence of DUE disorders in "safe" and "hazardous" jobs (P < 0.049. But, no significant difference (P = 0.3 was obtained between mean absenteeism in "safe" and hazardous jobs. Also, no significant difference statistically was found between turnover in "safe" and hazardous jobs (X2 = 0.133, P = 1 and high prevalence of DUE disorders is due to low turnover rate of workers.

  17. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  18. Methods for the risk assessment of rock bursts under the condition of the Upper Silesian coal basin; Methoden zur Bewertung des Risikos von Gebirgsschlaegen unter Bedingungen des oberschlesischen Kohlebeckens

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Myszkowski, Jacek [Forschungsanstalt fuer Gebirgsschlaege und Gebirgsmechanik BT, Katowice (Poland). Hauptinst. fuer Bergbau

    2013-06-15

    The assessment of the risk of rock burst in underground coal mines is associated with the forecasting, assessment and management of risks. The contribution under consideration presents methods for the risk assessment and prevention of rock bursts.

  19. Monitoring of emerging pollutants in Guadiamar River basin (South of Spain): analytical method, spatial distribution and environmental risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrido, Eva; Camacho-Muñoz, Dolores; Martín, Julia; Santos, Antonio; Santos, Juan Luis; Aparicio, Irene; Alonso, Esteban

    2016-12-01

    Guadiamar River is located in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula and connects two protected areas in the South of Spain: Sierra Morena and Doñana National Park. It is sited in an area affected by urban, industrial and agriculture sewage pollution and with tradition on intensive mining activities. Most of the studies performed in this area have been mainly focused on the presence of heavy metals and, until now, little is known about the occurrence of other contaminants such as emerging organic pollutants (EOPs). In this work, an analytical method has been optimized and validated for monitoring of forty-seven EOPs in surface water. The analytical method has been applied to study the distribution and environmental risk of these pollutants in Guadiamar River basin. The analytical method was based on solid-phase extraction and determination by liquid chromatography-triple quadrupole-tandem mass spectrometry. The 60 % of the target compounds were found in the analyzed samples. The highest concentrations were found for two plasticizers (bisphenol A and di(2-ethyhexyl)phthalate, mean concentration up to 930 ng/L) and two pharmaceutical compounds (caffeine (up to 623 ng/L) and salicylic acid (up to 318 ng/L)). This study allowed to evaluate the potential sources (industrial or urban) of the studied compounds and the spatial distribution of their concentrations along the river. Environmental risk assessment showed a major risk on the south of the river, mainly due to discharges of wastewater effluents.

  20. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  1. TePiTri : a screening method for assessing terrorist-related pipeline transport risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, G.; Dullaert, W.E.H.

    2012-01-01

    The article proposes an approach to determine relative terrorist-related security risk levels of pipeline transportation. Pipeline routes are divided into smaller route segments. Subsequently, likelihood scores of possible terrorist-related incidents are determined per route segment and per

  2. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  3. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

  4. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  5. Methods for assessing fracture risk prediction models: experience with FRAX in a large integrated health care delivery system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pressman, Alice R; Lo, Joan C; Chandra, Malini; Ettinger, Bruce

    2011-01-01

    Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve is often used to evaluate risk models. However, reclassification tests provide an alternative assessment of model performance. We performed both evaluations on results from FRAX (World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, UK), a fracture risk tool, using Kaiser Permanente Northern California women older than 50yr with bone mineral density (BMD) measured during 1997-2003. We compared FRAX performance with and without BMD in the model. Among 94,489 women with mean follow-up of 6.6yr, 1579 (1.7%) sustained a hip fracture. Overall, AUROCs were 0.83 and 0.84 for FRAX without and with BMD, suggesting that BMD did not contribute to model performance. AUROC decreased with increasing age, and BMD contributed significantly to higher AUROC among those aged 70yr and older. Using an 81% sensitivity threshold (optimum level from receiver operating characteristic curve, corresponding to 1.2% cutoff), 35% of those categorized above were reassigned below when BMD was added. In contrast, only 10% of those categorized below were reassigned to the higher risk category when BMD was added. The net reclassification improvement was 5.5% (p<0.01). Two versions of this risk tool have similar AUROCs, but alternative assessments indicate that addition of BMD improves performance. Multiple methods should be used to evaluate risk tool performance with less reliance on AUROC alone. Copyright © 2011 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  7. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  8. Geometry reconstruction method for patient-specific finite element models for the assessment of tibia fracture risk in osteogenesis imperfecta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caouette, Christiane; Ikin, Nicole; Villemure, Isabelle; Arnoux, Pierre-Jean; Rauch, Frank; Aubin, Carl-Éric

    2017-04-01

    Lower limb deformation in children with osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) impairs ambulation and may lead to fracture. Corrective surgery is based on empirical assessment criteria. The objective was to develop a reconstruction method of the tibia for OI patients that could be used as input of a comprehensive finite element model to assess fracture risks. Data were obtained from three children with OI and tibia deformities. Four pQCT scans were registered to biplanar radiographs, and a template mesh was deformed to fit the bone outline. Cortical bone thickness was computed. Sensitivity of the model to missing slices of pQCT was assessed by calculating maximal von Mises stress for a vertical hopping load case. Sensitivity of the model to ±5 % of cortical thickness measurements was assessed by calculating loads at fracture. Difference between the mesh contour and bone outline on the radiographs was below 1 mm. Removal of one pQCT slice increased maximal von Mises stress by up to 10 %. Simulated ±5 % variation of cortical bone thickness leads to variations of up to 4.1 % on predicted fracture loads. Using clinically available tibia imaging from children with OI, the developed reconstruction method allowed the building of patient-specific finite element models.

  9. Review of Risk Reduction Methods using Probabilistic Safety Assessment Insights and Improved Technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Eun-Chan; Choi, Byung-Pil [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    As seen in the process of the periodic safety review of domestic nuclear power plants, the risk management objectives such as core damage frequency and large early release frequency are not easy to be met without continuous safety improvements and the integratoin of the improved technologies into the PSA evaluation methodologies. Because external event analyses have a protion of uncertainty factors in the current analysis methodologies, the technical efforts in various perspectives.

  10. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  11. Development and Validation of Methods for Applying Pharmacokinetic Data in Risk Assessment. Volume 2. Trichloroethylene

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-12-01

    related to presumed mechanisms of TCE-induced liver tumors, especially as they relate to peroxisome proliferation. lFishe-, J., Cargas , M., Allen, B., et...Risk Analysis, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Prepared under Contract No. DE -ACO5-94)R21O0 for the U.S. Department of Energy...Dekant et al., 1989). In the liver DCVC may be acetylated to form N-Ac-DCVC which can then be transported back to the kidney where it may be excreted in

  12. Methods and results of a probabilistic risk assessment for radioactive waste transports

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lange, F.; Gruendler, D.; Schwarz, G.

    1993-01-01

    The radiological risk from accidents has been analyzed for the expected annual transport volume (3400 shipping units) of low and partially intermediate level radioactive wastes to be shipped to a final repository. In order to take account of these variable quantities and conditions a computer code was developed to simulate a wide spectrum of waste transport and accident configurations using Monte Carlo sampling techniques. Typically some 10.000 source terms were generated to represent possible releases of radionuclides from transport accidents. Accident events in which the integrity of waste packagings is retained and consequently no releases occur are included. Potential radiological consequences are then calculated for each of the release categories by using an accident consequence code which takes into account atmospheric dispersion statistics. Finally cumulative complementary frequency distributions of radiological consequences are generated by superposing the results for all release categories. Radiological consequences are primarily expressed as potential effective individual doses resulting from airborne and deposited radionuclides. The results of the risk analysis show that expected frequencies of effective doses comparable to the natural radiation exposure of one year are quite low and very low for potential radiation exposures in the range of 50 mSv. (J.P.N.)

  13. Basic theory and methods of dosimetry for use in risk assessment of genotoxic chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ehrenberg, L; Granath, F

    1992-01-01

    This project is designed to be theoretical, with limited experimental input. The work then would have to be directed towards an identification of problems, with an emphasis on the potential ability of molecular/biochemical methods to reach a solution, rather than aiming at solutions of the problems. In addition, the work is dependent on experimental work within parallel projects. Initially, projects running at this laboratory were strongly tied up with practical matters, such as the development of monitoring methods for specific exposures, with limited resources for basic research. As sketched in the scientific report below, section 4 the meaningfulness of molecular/biochemical methods and their potential contribution to the problem of dsk estimation has to be seen against a broad overview of this problem and current efforts to solve it. This overview, given as a brief summary in section 3, shows the necessity of combining different fields of research, holding them together by strictly quantitative aspects.

  14. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  15. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  16. A hierachical method for soil erosion assessment and spatial risk modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Okoth, P.F.

    2003-01-01

      Though a lot has been done and achieved in erosion research and control in Kenya, most of the erosion research methods have in the past put emphasis more on quantifying soil loss or measuring soil erosion, rather than pinpointing to

  17. The fish embryo toxicity test as an animal alternative method in hazard and risk assessment and scientific research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embry, Michelle R.; Belanger, Scott E.; Braunbeck, Thomas A.; Galay-Burgos, Malyka; Halder, Marlies; Hinton, David E.; Leonard, Marc A.; Lillicrap, Adam; Norberg-King, Teresa; Whale, Graham

    2010-01-01

    Animal alternatives research has historically focused on human safety assessments and has only recently been extended to environmental testing. This is particularly for those assays that involve the use of fish. A number of alternatives are being pursued by the scientific community including the fish embryo toxicity (FET) test, a proposed replacement alternative to the acute fish test. Discussion of the FET methodology and its application in environmental assessments on a global level was needed. With this emerging issue in mind, the ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) and the European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals (ECETOC) held an International Workshop on the Application of the Fish Embryo Test as an Animal Alternative Method in Hazard and Risk Assessment and Scientific Research in March, 2008. The workshop included approximately 40 scientists and regulators representing government, industry, academia, and non-governmental organizations from North America, Europe, and Asia. The goal was to review the state of the science regarding the investigation of fish embryonic tests, pain and distress in fish, emerging approaches utilizing fish embryos, and the use of fish embryo toxicity test data in various types of environmental assessments (e.g., hazard, risk, effluent, and classification and labeling of chemicals). Some specific key outcomes included agreement that risk assessors need fish data for decision-making, that extending the FET to include eluethereombryos was desirable, that relevant endpoints are being used, and that additional endpoints could facilitate additional uses beyond acute toxicity testing. The FET was, however, not yet considered validated sensu OECD. An important action step will be to provide guidance on how all fish tests can be used to assess chemical hazard and to harmonize the diverse terminology used in test guidelines adopted over the past decades. Use of the FET in context of effluent assessments

  18. The fish embryo toxicity test as an animal alternative method in hazard and risk assessment and scientific research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Embry, Michelle R., E-mail: membry@ilsi.org [ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute, 1156 15th Street, NW, Suite 200, Washington, DC 20005 (United States); Belanger, Scott E., E-mail: belanger.se@pg.com [Procter and Gamble, Central Product Safety, PO Box 538707, Miami Valley Innovation Center, Cincinnati, OH 45253-8707 (United States); Braunbeck, Thomas A., E-mail: braunbeck@zoo.uni-heidelberg.de [University of Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 230, Heidelberg D -69120 (Germany); Galay-Burgos, Malyka, E-mail: malyka.galay-burgos@ecetoc.org [European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals (ECETOC), 4 Avenue E. Van Nieuwenhuyse B-1160, Brussels (Belgium); Halder, Marlies, E-mail: marlies.halder@jrc.ec.europa.eu [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Health and Consumer Protection, In-Vitro Methods Unit TP-580 Ispra 21027 (Italy); Hinton, David E., E-mail: dhinton@duke.edu [Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, PO Box 90328, Durham, NC 27708, Unites States (United States); Leonard, Marc A., E-mail: mleonard@rd.loreal.com [L' Oreal Recherche Avancee, Unite d' Ecotoxicologie, 1 av. E. Schueller, 93601 Aulnay sous bois (France); Lillicrap, Adam, E-mail: Adam.lillicrap@niva.no [AstraZeneca, Freshwater Quarry, Brixham TQ5 8BA (United Kingdom); Norberg-King, Teresa, E-mail: norberg-king.teresa@epa.gov [U.S. EPA, Mid-Continent Ecology Division, 6201 Congdon Boulevard, Duluth, MN 55804-1636 (United States); Whale, Graham, E-mail: graham.whale@shell.com [Shell Global Solutions, Analytical Technology, P.O. Box 1, Chester CH1 3SH (United Kingdom)

    2010-04-15

    Animal alternatives research has historically focused on human safety assessments and has only recently been extended to environmental testing. This is particularly for those assays that involve the use of fish. A number of alternatives are being pursued by the scientific community including the fish embryo toxicity (FET) test, a proposed replacement alternative to the acute fish test. Discussion of the FET methodology and its application in environmental assessments on a global level was needed. With this emerging issue in mind, the ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) and the European Centre for Ecotoxicology and Toxicology of Chemicals (ECETOC) held an International Workshop on the Application of the Fish Embryo Test as an Animal Alternative Method in Hazard and Risk Assessment and Scientific Research in March, 2008. The workshop included approximately 40 scientists and regulators representing government, industry, academia, and non-governmental organizations from North America, Europe, and Asia. The goal was to review the state of the science regarding the investigation of fish embryonic tests, pain and distress in fish, emerging approaches utilizing fish embryos, and the use of fish embryo toxicity test data in various types of environmental assessments (e.g., hazard, risk, effluent, and classification and labeling of chemicals). Some specific key outcomes included agreement that risk assessors need fish data for decision-making, that extending the FET to include eluethereombryos was desirable, that relevant endpoints are being used, and that additional endpoints could facilitate additional uses beyond acute toxicity testing. The FET was, however, not yet considered validated sensu OECD. An important action step will be to provide guidance on how all fish tests can be used to assess chemical hazard and to harmonize the diverse terminology used in test guidelines adopted over the past decades. Use of the FET in context of effluent assessments

  19. An index-based method to assess risks of climate-related hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satta, Alessio; Snoussi, Maria; Puddu, Manuela; Flayou, Latifa; Hout, Radouane

    2016-06-01

    The regional risk assessment carried out within the ClimVar & ICZM Project identified the coastal zone of Tetouan as a hotspot of the Mediterranean Moroccan coast and so it was chosen for the application of the Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS). The local scale approach provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management by exploring the effects and the extensions of the hazards and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables in order to identify areas where the risk is relatively high. The coast of Tetouan is one of the coastal areas that have been most rapidly and densely urbanized in Morocco and it is characterized by an erosive shoreline. Local authorities are facing the complex task of balancing development and managing coastal risks, especially coastal erosion and flooding, and then be prepared to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The first phase of the application of the CRI-LS methodology to Tetouan consisted of defining the coastal hazard zone, which results from the overlaying of the erosion hazard zone and the flooding hazard zone. Nineteen variables were chosen to describe the Hazards, Vulnerability and Exposure factors. The scores corresponding to each variable were calculated and the weights assigned through an expert judgement elicitation. The resulting values are hosted in a geographic information system (GIS) platform that enables the individual variables and aggregated risk scores to be color-coded and mapped across the coastal hazard zone. The results indicated that 10% and 27% of investigated littoral fall under respectively very high and high vulnerability because of combination of high erosion rates with high capital land use. The risk map showed that some areas, especially the flood plains of Restinga, Smir and Martil-Alila, with distances over 5 km from the coast, are characterized by high levels of risk due to the low topography of the flood plains and to the high values of exposure

  20. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  1. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  2. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  3. Recovery actions in PRA [probabilistic risk assessment] for the Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP): Volume 1, Development of the data-based method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weston, L.M.; Whitehead, D.W.; Graves, N.L.

    1987-06-01

    In a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for a nuclear power plant, the analyst identifies a set of potential core damage events consisting of equipment failures and human errors and their estimated probabilities of occurrence. If operator recovery from an event within some specified time is considered, then the probability of this recovery can be included in the PRA. This report provides PRA analysts with an improved methodology for including recovery actions in a PRA. A recovery action can be divided into two distinct phases: a Diagnosis Phase (realizing that there is a problem with a critical parameter and deciding upon the correct course of action) and an Action Phase (physically accomplishing the required action). In this methodology, simulator data are used to estimate recovery probabilities for the diagnosis phase. Different time-reliability curves showing the probability of failure of diagnosis as a function of time from the compelling cue for the event are presented. These curves are based on simulator exercises, and the actions are grouped based upon their operational similarities. This is an improvement over existing diagnosis models that rely greatly upon subjective judgment to obtain such estimates. The action phase is modeled using estimates from available sources. The methodology also includes a recommendation on where and when to apply the recovery action in the PRA process

  4. Overview of Provisional Peer-Reviewed Toxicity Values (PPRTVs), Alternative Methods in Human Health Risk Assessment, and the RapidTox Dashboard

    Science.gov (United States)

    This poster provides an overview of three key lines of ongoing work at EPA/ORD/NCEA-CIN: Provisional Peer-Reviewed Toxicity Values (PPRTVs), Alternative Methods in Human Health Risk Assessment, and the RapidTox Dashboard collaboration.

  5. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  6. Assessment of psychosocial risks faced by workers in Almería-type greenhouses, using the Mini Psychosocial Factor method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoya-García, M E; Callejón-Ferre, A J; Pérez-Alonso, J; Sánchez-Hermosilla, J

    2013-03-01

    This work reports the use of the Mini Psychosocial Factor (MPF) method for assessing the psychosocial risks faced by agricultural workers in the greenhouses of Almería (Spain) with the aim of improving their health. The variables Rhythm, Mobbing, Relationships, Health, Recognition, Autonomy, Emotional Involvement, Support, Compensation, Control, Demands, and Mental Load were recorded using a pre-validated questionnaire containing 15 questions. The sex, age, and nationality of the respondents (n = 310) were also recorded, as were the type of greenhouse in which each worked, the size of the greenhouse, and the crop grown. The results showed psychosocial risks to exist for the workers. Multiple correspondence analysis, however, showed that moderate risks can be offset by new prevention programmes that improve Spanish legislation in terms of workers' salaries, worker-employer social days, work timetables to facilitate family life, and training courses. This could improve the work environment and health of Almería's greenhouse workers as well as their productivity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  7. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  8. Assessing the Risk of Secondary Transfer Via Fingerprint Brush Contamination Using Enhanced Sensitivity DNA Analysis Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolivar, Paula-Andrea; Tracey, Martin; McCord, Bruce

    2016-01-01

    Experiments were performed to determine the extent of cross-contamination of DNA resulting from secondary transfer due to fingerprint brushes used on multiple items of evidence. Analysis of both standard and low copy number (LCN) STR was performed. Two different procedures were used to enhance sensitivity, post-PCR cleanup and increased cycle number. Under standard STR typing procedures, some additional alleles were produced that were not present in the controls or blanks; however, there was insufficient data to include the contaminant donor as a contributor. Inclusion of the contaminant donor did occur for one sample using post-PCR cleanup. Detection of the contaminant donor occurred for every replicate of the 31 cycle amplifications; however, using LCN interpretation recommendations for consensus profiles, only one sample would include the contaminant donor. Our results indicate that detection of secondary transfer of DNA can occur through fingerprint brush contamination and is enhanced using LCN-DNA methods. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  9. Validation needs of seismic probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods applied to nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kot, C.A.; Srinivasan, M.G.; Hsieh, B.J.

    1985-01-01

    An effort to validate seismic PRA methods is in progress. The work concentrates on the validation of plant response and fragility estimates through the use of test data and information from actual earthquake experience. Validation needs have been identified in the areas of soil-structure interaction, structural response and capacity, and equipment fragility. Of particular concern is the adequacy of linear methodology to predict nonlinear behavior. While many questions can be resolved through the judicious use of dynamic test data, other aspects can only be validated by means of input and response measurements during actual earthquakes. A number of past, ongoing, and planned testing programs which can provide useful validation data have been identified, and validation approaches for specific problems are being formulated

  10. Risk assessment of underpass infrastructure project based on IS0 31000 and ISO 21500 using fishbone diagram and RFMEA (project risk failure mode and effects analysis) method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purwanggono, Bambang; Margarette, Anastasia

    2017-12-01

    Completion time of highway construction is very meaningful for smooth transportation, moreover expected number of ownership motor vehicle will increase each year. Therefore, this study was conducted with to analyze the constraints that contained in an infrastructure development project. This research was conducted on Jatingaleh Underpass Project, Semarang. This research was carried out while the project is running, on the implementation, this project is experiencing delays. This research is done to find out what are the constraints that occur in execution of a road infrastructure project, in particular that causes delays. The method that used to find the root cause is fishbone diagram to obtain a possible means of mitigation. Coupled with the RFMEA method used to determine the critical risks that must be addressed immediately on road infrastructure project. The result of data tabulation in this study indicates that the most possible mitigation tool to make a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) recommendations to disrupt utilities that interfere project implementation. Process of risk assessment has been carried out systematically based on ISO 31000:2009 on risk management and for determination of delayed variables, the requirements of process groups according to ISO 21500:2013 on project management were used.

  11. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  12. Optical Method for Cardiovascular Risk Marker Uric Acid Removal Assessment during Dialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Holmar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to estimate the concentration of uric acid (UA optically by using the original and processed ultraviolet (UV absorbance spectra of spent dialysate. Also, the effect of using several wavelengths (multi-wavelength algorithms for estimation was examined. This paper gives an overview of seven studies carried out in Linköping, Sweden, and Tallinn, Estonia. A total of 60 patients were monitored over their 188 dialysis treatment procedures. Dialysate samples were taken and analysed by means of UA concentration in a chemical laboratory and with a double-beam spectrophotometer. The measured UV absorbance spectra were processed. Three models for the original and three for the first derivate of UV absorbance were created; concentrations of UA from the different methods were finally compared in terms of mean values and SD. The mean concentration (micromol/L of UA was 49.7±23.0 measured in the chemical laboratory, and 48.9±22.4 calculated with the best estimate among all models. The concentrations were not significantly different (P≥0.17. It was found that using a multi-wavelength and processed signal approach leads to more accurate results, and therefore these approaches should be used in future.

  13. Development of a Risk-Based Probabilistic Performance-Assessment Method for Long-Term Cover Systems - 2nd Edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HO, CLIFFORD K.; ARNOLD, BILL W.; COCHRAN, JOHN R.; TAIRA, RANDAL Y.

    2002-01-01

    A probabilistic, risk-based performance-assessment methodology has been developed to assist designers, regulators, and stakeholders in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. This report describes the method, the software tools that were developed, and an example that illustrates the probabilistic performance-assessment method using a repository site in Monticello, Utah. At the Monticello site, a long-term cover system is being used to isolate long-lived uranium mill tailings from the biosphere. Computer models were developed to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models were then integrated into a total-system performance-assessment model, and uncertainty distributions of important input parameters were constructed and sampled in a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple realizations were simulated using the integrated model to produce cumulative distribution functions of the performance metrics, which were used to assess cover performance for both present- and long-term future conditions. Performance metrics for this study included the water percolation reaching the uranium mill tailings, radon gas flux at the surface, groundwater concentrations, and dose. Results from uncertainty analyses, sensitivity analyses, and alternative design comparisons are presented for each of the performance metrics. The benefits from this methodology include a quantification of uncertainty, the identification of parameters most important to performance (to prioritize site characterization and monitoring activities), and the ability to compare alternative designs using probabilistic evaluations of performance (for cost savings)

  14. An update on risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis assessed using MRI-based semiquantitative grading methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alizai, Hamza [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Aspetar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, Doha (Qatar); University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio, Department of Radiology, San Antonio, TX (United States); Roemer, Frank W. [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Aspetar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, Doha (Qatar); University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Department of Radiology, Erlangen (Germany); Hayashi, Daichi [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Aspetar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, Doha (Qatar); Yale University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Bridgeport Hospital, Bridgeport, CT (United States); Crema, Michel D. [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Aspetar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, Doha (Qatar); Hospital do Coracao and Teleimagem, Department of Radiology, Sao Paulo (Brazil); Felson, David T. [Boston University School of Medicine, Clinical Epidemiology Research and Training Unit, Boston, MA (United States); Guermazi, Ali [Boston University School of Medicine, Quantitative Imaging Center, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); Aspetar Orthopaedic and Sports Medicine Hospital, Doha (Qatar); Boston Medical Center, Boston, MA (United States)

    2014-11-07

    Arthroscopy-based semiquantitative scoring systems such as Outerbridge and Noyes' scores were the first to be developed for the purpose of grading cartilage defects. As magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) became available faor evaluation of the osteoarthritic knee joint, these systems were adapted for use with MRI. Later on, grading methods such as the Whole Organ Magnetic Resonance Score, the Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score and the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score were designed specifically for performing whole-organ assessment of the knee joint structures, including cartilage. Cartilage grades on MRI obtained with these scoring systems represent optimal outcome measures for longitudinal studies, and are designed to enhance understanding of the knee osteoarthritis disease process. The purpose of this narrative review is to describe cartilage assessment in knee osteoarthritis using currently available MRI-based semiquantitative whole-organ scoring systems, and to provide an update on the risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis as assessed with these scoring systems. (orig.)

  15. An update on risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis assessed using MRI-based semiquantitative grading methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alizai, Hamza; Roemer, Frank W.; Hayashi, Daichi; Crema, Michel D.; Felson, David T.; Guermazi, Ali

    2015-01-01

    Arthroscopy-based semiquantitative scoring systems such as Outerbridge and Noyes' scores were the first to be developed for the purpose of grading cartilage defects. As magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) became available faor evaluation of the osteoarthritic knee joint, these systems were adapted for use with MRI. Later on, grading methods such as the Whole Organ Magnetic Resonance Score, the Boston-Leeds Osteoarthritis Knee Score and the MRI Osteoarthritis Knee Score were designed specifically for performing whole-organ assessment of the knee joint structures, including cartilage. Cartilage grades on MRI obtained with these scoring systems represent optimal outcome measures for longitudinal studies, and are designed to enhance understanding of the knee osteoarthritis disease process. The purpose of this narrative review is to describe cartilage assessment in knee osteoarthritis using currently available MRI-based semiquantitative whole-organ scoring systems, and to provide an update on the risk factors for cartilage loss in knee osteoarthritis as assessed with these scoring systems. (orig.)

  16. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  17. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  18. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  19. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  20. Expedited CT-Based Methods for Evaluating Fracture Severity to Assess Risk of Post-Traumatic Osteoarthritis After Articular Fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Donald D; Kilburg, Anthony T; Thomas, Thaddeus P; Marsh, J Lawrence

    2016-01-01

    Post-traumatic osteoarthritis (PTOA) is common after intra-articular fractures of the tibial plafond. An objective CT-based measure of fracture severity was previously found to reliably predict whether PTOA developed following surgical treatment of such fractures. However, the extended time required obtaining the fracture energy metric and its reliance upon an intact contralateral limb CT limited its clinical applicability. The objective of this study was to establish an expedited fracture severity metric that provided comparable PTOA predictive ability without the prior limitations. An expedited fracture severity metric was computed from the CT scans of 30 tibial plafond fractures using textural analysis to quantify disorder in CT images. The expedited method utilized an intact surrogate model to enable severity assessment without requiring a contralateral limb CT. Agreement between the expedited fracture severity metric and the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) radiographic OA score at two-year follow-up was assessed using concordance. The ability of the metric to differentiate between patients that did or did not develop PTOA was assessed using the Wilcoxon Ranked Sum test. The expedited severity metric agreed well (75.2% concordance) with the KL scores. The initial fracture severity of cases that developed PTOA differed significantly (p = 0.004) from those that did not. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the expedited severity metric could accurately predict PTOA outcome in 80% of the cases. The time required to obtain the expedited severity metric averaged 14.9 minutes/ case, and the metric was obtained without using an intact contralateral CT. The expedited CT-based methods for fracture severity assessment present a solution to issues limiting the utility of prior methods. In a relatively short amount of time, the expedited methodology provided a severity score capable of predicting PTOA risk, without needing to have the intact contralateral limb

  1. Overview of toxicity data and risk assessment methods for evaluating the chemical effects of depleted uranium compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hartmann, H.M.; Monette, F.A.; Avci, H.I.

    2000-01-01

    In the United States, depleted uranium is handled or used in several chemical forms by both governmental agencies and private industry (primarily companies producing and machining depleted uranium metal for military applications). Human exposure can occur as a result of handling these compounds, routine low-level effluent releases to the environment from processing facilities, or materials being accidentally released from storage locations or during processing or transportation. Exposure to uranium can result in both chemical and radiological toxicity, but in most instances chemical toxicity is of greater concern. This article discusses the chemical toxic effects from human exposure to depleted uranium compounds that are likely to be handled during the long-term management and use of depleted uranium hexafluoride (UF 6 ) inventories in the United States. It also reviews representative publications in the toxicological literature to establish appropriate reference values for risk assessments. Methods are described for evaluating chemical toxicity caused by chronic low-level exposure and acute exposure. Example risk evaluations are provided for illustration. Preliminary results indicate that chemical effects of chronic exposure to uranium compounds under normal operating conditions would be negligibly small. Results also show that acute exposures under certain accident conditions could cause adverse chemical effects among the populations exposed.

  2. The Promise and the Challenge of Technology-Facilitated Methods for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Risk for Suicide among U.S. Army National Guard Personnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baucom, Brian R W; Georgiou, Panayiotis; Bryan, Craig J; Garland, Eric L; Leifker, Feea; May, Alexis; Wong, Alexander; Narayanan, Shrikanth S

    2017-03-31

    Suicide was the 10th leading cause of death for Americans in 2015 and rates have been steadily climbing over the last 25 years. Rates are particularly high amongst U.S. military personnel. Suicide prevention efforts in the military are significantly hampered by the lack of: (1) assessment tools for measuring baseline risk and (2) methods to detect periods of particularly heightened risk. Two specific barriers to assessing suicide risk in military personnel that call for innovation are: (1) the geographic dispersion of military personnel from healthcare settings, particularly amongst components like the Reserves; and (2) professional and social disincentives to acknowledging psychological distress. The primary aim of this paper is to describe recent technological developments that could contribute to risk assessment tools that are not subject to the limitations mentioned above. More specifically, Behavioral Signal Processing can be used to assess behaviors during interaction and conversation that likely indicate increased risk for suicide, and computer-administered, cognitive performance tasks can be used to assess activation of the suicidal mode. These novel methods can be used remotely and do not require direct disclosure or endorsement of psychological distress, solving two challenges to suicide risk assessment in military and other sensitive settings. We present an introduction to these technologies, describe how they can specifically be applied to assessing behavioral and cognitive risk for suicide, and close with recommendations for future research.

  3. The Promise and the Challenge of Technology-Facilitated Methods for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Risk for Suicide among U.S. Army National Guard Personnel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian R. W. Baucom

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Suicide was the 10th leading cause of death for Americans in 2015 and rates have been steadily climbing over the last 25 years. Rates are particularly high amongst U.S. military personnel. Suicide prevention efforts in the military are significantly hampered by the lack of: (1 assessment tools for measuring baseline risk and (2 methods to detect periods of particularly heightened risk. Two specific barriers to assessing suicide risk in military personnel that call for innovation are: (1 the geographic dispersion of military personnel from healthcare settings, particularly amongst components like the Reserves; and (2 professional and social disincentives to acknowledging psychological distress. The primary aim of this paper is to describe recent technological developments that could contribute to risk assessment tools that are not subject to the limitations mentioned above. More specifically, Behavioral Signal Processing can be used to assess behaviors during interaction and conversation that likely indicate increased risk for suicide, and computer-administered, cognitive performance tasks can be used to assess activation of the suicidal mode. These novel methods can be used remotely and do not require direct disclosure or endorsement of psychological distress, solving two challenges to suicide risk assessment in military and other sensitive settings. We present an introduction to these technologies, describe how they can specifically be applied to assessing behavioral and cognitive risk for suicide, and close with recommendations for future research.

  4. Methods for Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alverbro, Karin

    2010-01-01

    Many decision-making situations today affect humans and the environment. In practice, many such decisions are made without an overall view and prioritise one or other of the two areas. Now and then these two areas of regulation come into conflict, e.g. the best alternative as regards environmental considerations is not always the best from a human safety perspective and vice versa. This report was prepared within a major project with the aim of developing a framework in which both the environmental aspects and the human safety aspects are integrated, and decisions can be made taking both fields into consideration. The safety risks have to be analysed in order to be successfully avoided and one way of doing this is to use different kinds of risk analysis methods. There is an abundance of existing methods to choose from and new methods are constantly being developed. This report describes some of the risk analysis methods currently available for analysing safety and examines the relationships between them. The focus here is mainly on human safety aspects

  5. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  6. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  7. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  8. Methods for assessing the awareness level about hiv infection risk factor among students of the Khabarovsk Krai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.O. Taenkova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available To prevent the social diseases, including HIV infection – is one of the high-priority tasks of the public health. To assess the awareness level among the students of the Khabarovsk Krai in the age of 17–20 years about the risk factors and the HIV transmission ways, the special investigation has been held in 2016. The method of selection of respondents was random. The sampling included the first-year students of two universities and one college in the city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur (120 pers. and two high schools and college in Khabarovsk (100 pers.. The average age of respondents was 19.2 ± 1.04 years. The distribution by sex: men – 33 ± 3.17 %, women – 67 ± 3.17 %. The comparison of the data of the previous years (2008, 2012 and the study in 2016 confirmed that the majority (92 ± 1.5 % of the surveyed young adults in general are well-informed about HIV, sexual and parenteral routes of transmission. However, in recent years, the share of those who consider the possibility of HIV transmission through kisses, bites of blood-sucking or by sharing a meal. The performed studies have confirmed the tendency of the younger generation to the risky behavior. Their search for novelty and the thrills can be traditionally considered to be a contributing factor to the experiments with psychoactive substances and early initiation of sexual relations. The conducted analysis has showed the possibility of using the various forms and methods of youth behavior research. The study has revealed a certain potential for preventive planning of primary prevention of HIV infection. The obtained results have demonstrated that for the effective containment of the HIV epidemic it is necessary to carry out continuous risk monitoring system and preventive work among all young people, not only among the vulnerable groups.

  9. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  10. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  11. How artificial intelligence tools can be used to assess individual patient risk in cardiovascular disease: problems with the current methods

    OpenAIRE

    Grossi Enzo

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Background In recent years a number of algorithms for cardiovascular risk assessment has been proposed to the medical community. These algorithms consider a number of variables and express their results as the percentage risk of developing a major fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event in the following 10 to 20 years Discussion The author has identified three major pitfalls of these algorithms, linked to the limitation of the classical statistical approach in dealing with this kind ...

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  14. Method of assessment of the environmental risk associated with releases of radioactive substances. Adaptation to the case of mining sites in Haute-Vienne

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaugelin-Seiller, K.; Garnier-Laplace, J.

    2007-01-01

    This report presents methods which aim at proposing a first quantification (screening) of the potential impact and risk of releases from mining installations at the scale of a drainage basin for a given period, and at refining the characterization of the radiological and/or chemical risk when a potential risk is revealed by the screening step. The screening method allows a parallel assessment of the radio-ecological risk (for the whole set of radionuclides belonging to the uranium family) and of the chemical risk associated with uranium. The refinement is based on the use of probabilistic methods. These approaches lead to the calculation of a deterministic risk index by comparing Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PECs) with Predicted No-Effect Concentrations (PNECs) in the same media

  15. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  16. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  17. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  18. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  19. Risk assessment of water pollution sources based on an integrated k-means clustering and set pair analysis method in the region of Shiyan, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chunhui; Sun, Lian; Jia, Junxiang; Cai, Yanpeng; Wang, Xuan

    2016-07-01

    Source water areas are facing many potential water pollution risks. Risk assessment is an effective method to evaluate such risks. In this paper an integrated model based on k-means clustering analysis and set pair analysis was established aiming at evaluating the risks associated with water pollution in source water areas, in which the weights of indicators were determined through the entropy weight method. Then the proposed model was applied to assess water pollution risks in the region of Shiyan in which China's key source water area Danjiangkou Reservoir for the water source of the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is located. The results showed that eleven sources with relative high risk value were identified. At the regional scale, Shiyan City and Danjiangkou City would have a high risk value in term of the industrial discharge. Comparatively, Danjiangkou City and Yunxian County would have a high risk value in terms of agricultural pollution. Overall, the risk values of north regions close to the main stream and reservoir of the region of Shiyan were higher than that in the south. The results of risk level indicated that five sources were in lower risk level (i.e., level II), two in moderate risk level (i.e., level III), one in higher risk level (i.e., level IV) and three in highest risk level (i.e., level V). Also risks of industrial discharge are higher than that of the agricultural sector. It is thus essential to manage the pillar industry of the region of Shiyan and certain agricultural companies in the vicinity of the reservoir to reduce water pollution risks of source water areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  2. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  3. Novel Method for Recruiting Representative At-Risk Individuals into Cancer Prevention Trials: Online Health Risk Assessment in Employee Wellness Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, Siu-Kuen Azor; Miller, Suzanne M; Hazuda, Leah; Engelman, Kimberly; Ellerbeck, Edward F

    2016-09-01

    Participation in cancer prevention trials (CPT) is lower than 3 % among high-risk healthy individuals, and racial/ethnic minorities are the most under-represented. Novel recruitment strategies are therefore needed. Online health risk assessment (HRA) serves as a gateway component of nearly all employee wellness programs (EWPs) and may be a missed opportunity. This study aimed to explore employees' interest, willingness, motivators, and barriers of releasing their HRA responses to an external secure research database for recruitment purpose. We used qualitative research methods (focus group and individual interviews) to examine employees' interest and willingness in releasing their online HRA responses to an external, secure database to register as potential CPT participants. Fifteen structured interviews (40 % of study participants were of racial/ethnic minority) were conducted, and responses reached saturation after four interviews. All employees showed interest and willingness to release their online HRA responses to register as a potential CPT participant. Content analyses revealed that 91 % of participants were motivated to do so, and the major motivators were to (1) obtain help in finding personally relevant prevention trials, (2) help people they know who are affected by cancer, and/or (3) increase knowledge about CPT. A subset of participants (45 %) expressed barriers of releasing their HRA responses due to concerns about credibility and security of the external database. Online HRA may be a feasible but underutilized recruitment method for cancer prevention trials. EWP-sponsored HRA shows promise for the development of a large, centralized registry of racially/ethnically representative CPT potential participants.

  4. Skin sensitisation: the Colipa strategy for developing and evaluating non-animal test methods for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Gavin; Aeby, Pierre; Ashikaga, Takao; Bessou-Touya, Sandrine; Diembeck, Walter; Gerberick, Frank; Kern, Petra; Marrec-Fairley, Monique; Ovigne, Jean-Marc; Sakaguchi, Hitoshi; Schroeder, Klaus; Tailhardat, Magali; Teissier, Silvia; Winkler, Petra

    2011-01-01

    Allergic contact dermatitis is a delayed-type hypersensitivity reaction induced by small reactive chemicals (haptens). Currently, the sensitising potential and potency of new chemicals is usually characterised using data generated via animal studies, such as the local lymph node assay (LLNA). There are, however, increasing public and political concerns regarding the use of animals for the testing of new chemicals. Consequently, the development of in vitro, in chemico or in silico models for predicting the sensitising potential and/or potency of new chemicals is receiving widespread interest. The Colipa Skin Tolerance task force currently collaborates with and/or funds several academic research groups to expand our understanding of the molecular and cellular events occurring during the acquisition of skin sensitisation. Knowledge gained from this research is being used to support the development and evaluation of novel alternative approaches for the identification and characterisation of skin sensitizing chemicals. At present three non-animal test methods (Direct Peptide Reactivity Assay (DPRA), Myeloid U937 Skin Sensitisation Test (MUSST) and human Cell Line Activation Test (hCLAT)) have been evaluated in Colipa interlaboratory ring trials for their potential to predict skin sensitisation potential and were recently submitted to ECVAM for formal pre-validation. Data from all three test methods will now be used to support the study and development of testing strategy approaches for skin sensitiser potency prediction. This publication represents the current viewpoint of the cosmetics industry on the feasibility of replacing the need for animal test data for informing skin sensitisation risk assessment decisions.

  5. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  6. How artificial intelligence tools can be used to assess individual patient risk in cardiovascular disease: problems with the current methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grossi Enzo

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years a number of algorithms for cardiovascular risk assessment has been proposed to the medical community. These algorithms consider a number of variables and express their results as the percentage risk of developing a major fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event in the following 10 to 20 years Discussion The author has identified three major pitfalls of these algorithms, linked to the limitation of the classical statistical approach in dealing with this kind of non linear and complex information. The pitfalls are the inability to capture the disease complexity, the inability to capture process dynamics, and the wide confidence interval of individual risk assessment. Artificial Intelligence tools can provide potential advantage in trying to overcome these limitations. The theoretical background and some application examples related to artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic have been reviewed and discussed. Summary The use of predictive algorithms to assess individual absolute risk of cardiovascular future events is currently hampered by methodological and mathematical flaws. The use of newer approaches, such as fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks, linked to artificial intelligence, seems to better address both the challenge of increasing complexity resulting from a correlation between predisposing factors, data on the occurrence of cardiovascular events, and the prediction of future events on an individual level.

  7. How artificial intelligence tools can be used to assess individual patient risk in cardiovascular disease: problems with the current methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossi, Enzo

    2006-05-03

    In recent years a number of algorithms for cardiovascular risk assessment has been proposed to the medical community. These algorithms consider a number of variables and express their results as the percentage risk of developing a major fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular event in the following 10 to 20 years The author has identified three major pitfalls of these algorithms, linked to the limitation of the classical statistical approach in dealing with this kind of non linear and complex information. The pitfalls are the inability to capture the disease complexity, the inability to capture process dynamics, and the wide confidence interval of individual risk assessment. Artificial Intelligence tools can provide potential advantage in trying to overcome these limitations. The theoretical background and some application examples related to artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic have been reviewed and discussed. The use of predictive algorithms to assess individual absolute risk of cardiovascular future events is currently hampered by methodological and mathematical flaws. The use of newer approaches, such as fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks, linked to artificial intelligence, seems to better address both the challenge of increasing complexity resulting from a correlation between predisposing factors, data on the occurrence of cardiovascular events, and the prediction of future events on an individual level.

  8. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  9. "RISK ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPING DISTAL UPPER EXTREMITY DISORDERS BY STRAIN INDEX METHOD IN AN ASSEMBLING ELECTRONIC INDUSTRY"

    OpenAIRE

    M. Pourmahabadian; J.N. Saraji; M. Aghabeighi H. Saddeghi-Naeeni

    2005-01-01

    The strain index (SI) is a substantial advancement and has been devised to analyze ergonomic risks for distal upper extremity (DUE) disorders. This semi-quantitative tool allows for the measurement of hazards and does not require unduly lengthy training to begin to use it accurately. Uses of the strain index include analysis of a current job to assess whether it is safe or hazardous, quantification of the risks, and assistance in the initial design of a job or in the redesign of a job. The ai...

  10. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  11. Risk assessment for mineral oil : development of standardized analitical methods in soil and soil-like materials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harmsen, J.; Hutter, J.W.; Win, T.; Barnabas, I.; Whittle, P.; Hansen, N.; Sakai, H.

    2005-01-01

    The present standard methods for the determination of mineral oil in environmental matrices give a total concentration. This concentration is not found to be a good estimate for ecotoxicological, human and agricultural risks. It is shown that the existing ISO standards for mineral oil and volatile

  12. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  13. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  14. An Ultrasound Assessed Extraction Combined with Ion-Pair HPLC Method and Risk Assessment of Nitrite and Nitrate in Cured Meat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babiker Yagoub Abdulkair

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available An accurate IPC-UV method was developed and validated for the determination of nitrite (NI and nitrate (NA in meat products. The best separation was achieved on a phenyl-hexyl column (150 mm × 4.6 mm, 3 µm with a mobile phase composed of 25% acetonitrile and 75% buffer (2 mM disodium hydrogen phosphate and 3 mM tetrabutylammonium bromide, pH = 4. Eluents were monitored at 205 nm. Linearity ranges were 1.86 × 10−6–7.5 µg·ml−1 and 0.09–5.0 µg·ml−1 for NI and NA, respectively. The correlation coefficients were greater than 0.999 for NI and NA. This method was applied to a number of processed meat products in Riyadh (n = 155. NI ranged from 1.78 to 129.69 mg·kg−1, and NA ranged from 0.76 to 96.64 mg·kg−1. Results showed extensive use of NI and NA; however, concentrations were within the legal limit of Saudi Arabia except for one sample. Further, the risk assessment and dietary exposure have been estimated for both NI and NA.

  15. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  16. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  17. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  18. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  19. Energy consumption assessment methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sutherland, K S

    1975-01-01

    The why, what, and how-to aspects of energy audits for industrial plants, and the application of energy accounting methods to a chemical plant in order to assess energy conservation possibilities are discussed. (LCL)

  20. Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method The Investment Risk Assessment of Chinese Enterprises in The Countries Along “The Belt and Road”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yanyu; Chai, Huaqi; Huang, Yimiao

    2018-01-01

    “Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation” held in Beijing in May this year. once again, “The Belt and Road” strategic initiative to the world, causing the world’s enthusiastic response. The core of the “One Belt, One Road” strategy initiative is to promote infrastructure construction and interconnection, dock national policies and development strategies, deepen pragmatic cooperation, promote coordinated and coordinated development and achieve common prosperity. With the “The Belt and Road” strategy in-depth, Chinese enterprises will go abroad, in the countries along the country to invest in more and more examples, accompanied by the increasing risk. Analysis of the failure of investment cases, we can easily find that this is the majority of enterprises overseas investment in the lack of careful assessment of risk and risk of foreign investment risk management has a great relationship. In this paper, the risk factors are used to identify the risk factors table, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to estimate the comprehensive risk value of many uncertain factors that cannot be determined by the overseas investment. The risk assessment system is constructed to help Chinese enterprises to follow the " Investment to avoid risks, improve the success rate.

  1. WATER CHEMISTRY ASSESSMENT METHODS

    Science.gov (United States)

    This section summarizes and evaluates the surfce water column chemistry assessment methods for USEPA/EMAP-SW, USGS-NAQA, USEPA-RBP, Oho EPA, and MDNR-MBSS. The basic objective of surface water column chemistry assessment is to characterize surface water quality by measuring a sui...

  2. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  3. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  4. Methods for assessing geodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwoliński, Zbigniew; Najwer, Alicja; Giardino, Marco

    2017-04-01

    The accepted systematics of geodiversity assessment methods will be presented in three categories: qualitative, quantitative and qualitative-quantitative. Qualitative methods are usually descriptive methods that are suited to nominal and ordinal data. Quantitative methods use a different set of parameters and indicators to determine the characteristics of geodiversity in the area being researched. Qualitative-quantitative methods are a good combination of the collection of quantitative data (i.e. digital) and cause-effect data (i.e. relational and explanatory). It seems that at the current stage of the development of geodiversity research methods, qualitative-quantitative methods are the most advanced and best assess the geodiversity of the study area. Their particular advantage is the integration of data from different sources and with different substantive content. Among the distinguishing features of the quantitative and qualitative-quantitative methods for assessing geodiversity are their wide use within geographic information systems, both at the stage of data collection and data integration, as well as numerical processing and their presentation. The unresolved problem for these methods, however, is the possibility of their validation. It seems that currently the best method of validation is direct filed confrontation. Looking to the next few years, the development of qualitative-quantitative methods connected with cognitive issues should be expected, oriented towards ontology and the Semantic Web.

  5. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  6. A Risk Assessment Model for Reduced Aircraft Separation: A Quantitative Method to Evaluate the Safety of Free Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassell, Rick; Smith, Alex; Connors, Mary; Wojciech, Jack; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    As new technologies and procedures are introduced into the National Airspace System, whether they are intended to improve efficiency, capacity, or safety level, the quantification of potential changes in safety levels is of vital concern. Applications of technology can improve safety levels and allow the reduction of separation standards. An excellent example is the Precision Runway Monitor (PRM). By taking advantage of the surveillance and display advances of PRM, airports can run instrument parallel approaches to runways separated by 3400 feet with the same level of safety as parallel approaches to runways separated by 4300 feet using the standard technology. Despite a wealth of information from flight operations and testing programs, there is no readily quantifiable relationship between numerical safety levels and the separation standards that apply to aircraft on final approach. This paper presents a modeling approach to quantify the risk associated with reducing separation on final approach. Reducing aircraft separation, both laterally and longitudinally, has been the goal of several aviation R&D programs over the past several years. Many of these programs have focused on technological solutions to improve navigation accuracy, surveillance accuracy, aircraft situational awareness, controller situational awareness, and other technical and operational factors that are vital to maintaining flight safety. The risk assessment model relates different types of potential aircraft accidents and incidents and their contribution to overall accident risk. The framework links accident risks to a hierarchy of failsafe mechanisms characterized by procedures and interventions. The model will be used to assess the overall level of safety associated with reducing separation standards and the introduction of new technology and procedures, as envisaged under the Free Flight concept. The model framework can be applied to various aircraft scenarios, including parallel and in

  7. A semi-quantitative risk assessment method for analyzing the level of risk associated with parameters in design of thermal heavy oil Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrokhzad, M.A. [IMV Projects Inc., Alberta (Canada)

    2009-07-01

    how to prevent and control them. In this paper we look at the involved parameters in design of the SAGD pipelines and provide a semi-quantitative risk assessment method and the level of risk involved for each of these parameters. (author)

  8. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  9. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  10. Risk assessment of failure modes of gas diffuser liner of V94.2 siemens gas turbine by FMEA method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzaei Rafsanjani, H.; Rezaei Nasab, A.

    2012-05-01

    Failure of welding connection of gas diffuser liner and exhaust casing is one of the failure modes of V94.2 gas turbines which are happened in some power plants. This defect is one of the uncertainties of customers when they want to accept the final commissioning of this product. According to this, the risk priority of this failure evaluated by failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) method to find out whether this failure is catastrophic for turbine performance and is harmful for humans. By using history of 110 gas turbines of this model which are used in some power plants, the severity number, occurrence number and detection number of failure determined and consequently the Risk Priority Number (RPN) of failure determined. Finally, critically matrix of potential failures is created and illustrated that failure modes are located in safe zone.

  11. Incorporating ethnographic methods in multidisciplinary approaches to risk assessment and communication: cultural and religious uses of mercury in Latino and Caribbean communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Donna M; Newby, C Alison; Leal-Almeraz, Tomás O

    2006-10-01

    The potential risk from cultural and religious practices involving mercury in Latino and Caribbean communities raises central methodological and ethical questions for risk assessment and risk communication. Here, specific cultural practices unfamiliar to most risk professionals carry significant inherent risks in the eyes of those professionals but not necessarily in the eyes of practitioners. Practitioners' past experience and history as targets of religious suppression and anti-immigrant sentiment create a reluctance to engage with researchers or public health officials in risk assessment or preventive risk communication efforts. The potential for the risk--in this case mercury contamination in dwellings--to extend beyond the practicing community to future occupants adds to public health concern. Understanding the risks of these practices requires both an understanding of the cultural and political context, beliefs, and behaviors of mercury users and an understanding of the fate and transport of mercury in typical use scenarios. In this study, we employed ethnographic methods (interviews and participant observation) to understand beliefs and behavior about mercury use as well as quantitative modeling and measurement to estimate and assess potential exposures. This represents a new methodology tailored to situations in which traditional activities or observances that are integral components of cultural identity pose risks in and of themselves. Our findings indicate that there are different types of mercury use stemming from different cultural and religious traditions that result in different levels of exposure. Many of the mercury uses that can result in the highest exposures to mercury vapors have previously been attributed to the religious tradition of Santeria, but appear instead to have their roots outside of the religion.

  12. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  13. Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk a method for assessment of preventive care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strömberg Ulf

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time. The aim of this study was to develop the geo-map concept, addressing time trends in caries risk, and demonstrate the novel approach by analyzing epidemiological data from preschool residents in the region of Halland, Sweden. Methods The study population consisted of 9,973 (2006 and 10,927 (2010 children between 3 to 6years of age (~77% of the eligible population from whom caries data were obtained. Reported dmfs>0 for a child was considered as the primary caries outcome. Each study individual was geo-coded with respect to his/her residence parish (66 parishes in the region. Smoothed caries risk geo-maps, along with corresponding statistical certainty geo-maps, were produced by using the free software Rapid Inquiry Facility and the ESRI ArcGIS system. Parish-level socioeconomic data were available. Results The overall proportion of caries-free (dmfs=0 children improved from 84.0% in 2006 to 88.6% in 2010. The ratio of maximum and minimum (parish-level smoothed relative risks (SmRRs increased from 1.76/0.44=4.0 in 2006 to 2.37/0.33=7.2 in 2010, which indicated an increased geographical polarization of early childhood caries in the population. Eight parishes showed evidential, positional changes in caries risk between 2006 and 2010; their corresponding SmRRs and statistical certainty ranks changed markedly. No considerable parallel changes in parish-level socioeconomic characteristics were seen during the same time period. Conclusion Geo-maps based on caries risk can be used to monitor changes in caries risk over time. Thus, geo-mapping offers a convenient tool for evaluating the effectiveness of tailored health promotion and preventive

  14. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  15. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  16. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  17. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  18. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  19. Assessment methods for rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biefang, S; Potthoff, P

    1995-09-01

    Diagnostics and evaluation in medical rehabilitation should be based on methods that are as objective as possible. In this context quantitative methods are an important precondition. We conducted for the German Pensions Insurance Institutions (which are in charge of the medical and vocational rehabilitation of workers and employees) a survey on assessment methods for rehabilitation which included an evaluation of American literature, with the aim to indicate procedures that can be considered for adaptation in Germany and to define further research requirements. The survey identified: (1) standardized procedures and instrumented tests for the assessment of musculoskeletal, cardiopulmonary and neurophysiological function; (2) personality, intelligence, achievement, neuropsychological and alcoholism screening tests for the assessment of mental or cognitive function; (3) rating scales and self-administered questionnaires for the assessment of Activities of Daily Living and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (ADL/IADL Scales); (4) generic profiles and indexes as well as disease-specific measures for the assessment of health-related quality of life and health status; and (5) rating scales for vocational assessment. German equivalents or German versions exist only for a part of the procedures identified. Translation and testing of Anglo-Saxon procedures should have priority over the development of new German methods. The following procedures will be taken into account: (a) instrumented tests for physical function, (b) IADL Scales, (c) generic indexes of health-related quality of life, (d) specific quality of life and health status measures for disorders of the circulatory system, metabolic system, digestive organs, respiratory tract and for cancer, and (e) vocational rating scales.

  20. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  1. [COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY FOR ACCOUNTING OF CONFOUNDERS IN THE RISK ASSESSMENT IN COMPARATIVE STUDIES ON THE BASE OF THE METHOD OF STANDARDIZATION].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shalaumova, Yu V; Varaksin, A N; Panov, V G

    2016-01-01

    There was performed an analysis of the accounting of the impact of concomitant variables (confounders), introducing a systematic error in the assessment of the impact of risk factors on the resulting variable. The analysis showed that standardization is an effective method for the reduction of the shift of risk assessment. In the work there is suggested an algorithm implementing the method of standardization based on stratification, providing for the minimization of the difference of distributions of confounders in groups on risk factors. To automate the standardization procedures there was developed a software available on the website of the Institute of Industrial Ecology, UB RAS. With the help of the developed software by numerically modeling there were determined conditions of the applicability of the method of standardization on the basis of stratification for the case of the normal distribution on the response and confounder and linear relationship between them. Comparison ofresults obtained with the help of the standardization with statistical methods (logistic regression and analysis of covariance) in solving the problem of human ecology, has shown that obtaining close results is possible if there will be met exactly conditions for the applicability of statistical methods. Standardization is less sensitive to violations of conditions of applicability.

  2. Reconnecting Stochastic Methods With Hydrogeological Applications: A Utilitarian Uncertainty Analysis and Risk Assessment Approach for the Design of Optimal Monitoring Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bode, Felix; Ferré, Ty; Zigelli, Niklas; Emmert, Martin; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2018-03-01

    Collaboration between academics and practitioners promotes knowledge transfer between research and industry, with both sides benefiting greatly. However, academic approaches are often not feasible given real-world limits on time, cost and data availability, especially for risk and uncertainty analyses. Although the need for uncertainty quantification and risk assessment are clear, there are few published studies examining how scientific methods can be used in practice. In this work, we introduce possible strategies for transferring and communicating academic approaches to real-world applications, countering the current disconnect between increasingly sophisticated academic methods and methods that work and are accepted in practice. We analyze a collaboration between academics and water suppliers in Germany who wanted to design optimal groundwater monitoring networks for drinking-water well catchments. Our key conclusions are: to prefer multiobjective over single-objective optimization; to replace Monte-Carlo analyses by scenario methods; and to replace data-hungry quantitative risk assessment by easy-to-communicate qualitative methods. For improved communication, it is critical to set up common glossaries of terms to avoid misunderstandings, use striking visualization to communicate key concepts, and jointly and continually revisit the project objectives. Ultimately, these approaches and recommendations are simple and utilitarian enough to be transferred directly to other practical water resource related problems.

  3. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  4. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  5. Methods of Financial Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korzh Natalia

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The essence and nature of financial risks are investigated. Their classification is conducted. The features of financial risk management and the main methods of management are considered. The ways of risk compensation are identified. It is proved that the objective external risk basis is such market imperfections as externalities of enterprises and incomplete information about the operation of the business environment and internal objective basis risk – the objective function to maximise profits in a competitive environment. It is revealed that to compensate market imperfections business entities should develop a strategy that combines fill in missing information and neutralise or minimise externalities that tactically implemented in financial risk management programs.

  6. Assessing environmental risks for high intensity agriculture using the material flow analysis method--a case study of the Dongting Lake basin in South Central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Guanyi; Liu, Liming; Yuan, Chengcheng

    2015-07-01

    This study primarily examined the assessment of environmental risk in high intensity agricultural areas. Dongting Lake basin was taken as a case study, which is one of the major grain producing areas in China. Using data obtained from 1989 to 2012, we applied Material Flow Analysis (MFA) to show the material consumption, pollutant output and production storage in the agricultural-environmental system and assessed the environmental risk index on the basis of the MFA results. The results predicted that the status of the environmental quality of the Dongting Lake area is unsatisfactory for the foreseeable future. The direct material input (DMI) declined by 13.9%, the domestic processed output (DPO) increased by 28.21%, the intensity of material consumption (IMC) decreased by 36.7%, the intensity of material discharge (IMD) increased by 10%, the material productivity (MP) increased by 27 times, the environmental efficiency (EE) increased by 15.31 times, and the material storage (PAS) increased by 0.23%. The DMI and DPO was higher at rural places on the edge of cities, whereas the risk of urban agriculture has arisen due to the higher increasing rate of DMI and DPO in cities compared with the counties. The composite environmental risk index increased from 0.33 to 0.96, indicating that the total environmental risk changed gradually but seriously during the 24 years assessed. The driving factors that affect environmental risk in high intensity agriculture can be divided into five classes: social, economic, human, natural and disruptive incidents. This study discussed a number of effective measures for protecting the environment while ensuring food production yields. Additional research in other areas and certain improvements of this method in future studies may be necessary to develop a more effective method of managing and controlling agricultural-environmental interactions.

  7. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  8. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  9. Method for assessing coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model and unascertained measure theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qiang; Zhao, Dekang; Wang, Yang; Shen, Jianjun; Mu, Wenping; Liu, Honglei

    2017-11-01

    Water inrush from coal-seam floors greatly threatens mining safety in North China and is a complex process controlled by multiple factors. This study presents a mathematical assessment system for coal-floor water-inrush risk based on the variable-weight model (VWM) and unascertained measure theory (UMT). In contrast to the traditional constant-weight model (CWM), which assigns a fixed weight to each factor, the VWM varies with the factor-state value. The UMT employs the confidence principle, which is more effective in ordered partition problems than the maximum membership principle adopted in the former mathematical theory. The method is applied to the Datang Tashan Coal Mine in North China. First, eight main controlling factors are selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system. Subsequently, an incentive-penalty variable-weight model is built to calculate the variable weights of each factor. Then, the VWM-UMT model is established using the quantitative risk-grade divide of each factor according to the UMT. On this basis, the risk of coal-floor water inrush in Tashan Mine No. 8 is divided into five grades. For comparison, the CWM is also adopted for the risk assessment, and a differences distribution map is obtained between the two methods. Finally, the verification of water-inrush points indicates that the VWM-UMT model is powerful and more feasible and reasonable. The model has great potential and practical significance in future engineering applications.

  10. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  11. Practical Methods for Information Security Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian AMANCEI

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present some directions to perform the risk man-agement for information security. The article follows to practical methods through question-naire that asses the internal control, and through evaluation based on existing controls as part of vulnerability assessment. The methods presented contains all the key elements that concurs in risk management, through the elements proposed for evaluation questionnaire, list of threats, resource classification and evaluation, correlation between risks and controls and residual risk computation.

  12. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  16. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  17. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  18. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  19. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  20. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  1. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  2. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  3. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  4. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  5. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  6. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  7. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  8. STOCHASTIC METHODS IN RISK ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra OSADSKÁ

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we review basic stochastic methods which can be used to extend state-of-the-art deterministic analytical methods for risk analysis. We can conclude that the standard deterministic analytical methods highly depend on the practical experience and knowledge of the evaluator and therefore, the stochastic methods should be introduced. The new risk analysis methods should consider the uncertainties in input values. We present how large is the impact on the results of the analysis solving practical example of FMECA with uncertainties modelled using Monte Carlo sampling.

  9. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  10. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  11. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  12. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  13. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  14. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  15. A modified SINTACS method for groundwater vulnerability and pollution risk assessment in highly anthropized regions based on NO3- and SO42- concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busico, Gianluigi; Kazakis, Nerantzis; Colombani, Nicolò; Mastrocicco, Micòl; Voudouris, Konstantinos; Tedesco, Dario

    2017-12-31

    Groundwater vulnerability and risk assessment are worldwide tools in supporting groundwater protection and land planning. In this study, we used three of these different methodologies applied to the Campanian Plain located in southern Italy: SINTACS, AVI and LOS. However, their capability to describe the observed chemical pollution of the area has resulted quite poor. For such a reason, a modified SINTACS method has been then implemented in the area in order to get a more reliable view of groundwater vulnerability. NO 3 - and SO 4 2- from more than 400 monitoring wells were used for specific vulnerability assessment. Land use was chosen as key parameter to infer the risk of groundwater pollution in our area. The new methodology seems to show a higher correlation with observed NO 3 - concentrations and a more reliable identification of aquifer's pollution hot spots. The main sources of NO 3 - were found in sub-urban areas, where vulnerability and risk are higher than in other areas. Otherwise due to reducing conditions triggered by the presence of elevated sedimentary organic matter and peat, concentrations below agricultural areas were lower than in sub-urban areas. The SO 4 2- specific vulnerability map showed a positive correlation with observed concentrations, due to geogenic and anthropogenic SO 4 2- sources present in the area. The combination of both NO 3 - and SO 4 2- derived risk maps becomes essential to improve the conceptual model of aquifer pollution in this severely anthropized area. The application of this new and original approach shed light on the strengths and weaknesses of each of the described previous methods and clearly showed how anthropogenic activities have to be taken into account in the assessment process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  17. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  18. Risk assessment for LRW

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1987-01-01

    The information obtained by probabilistic methods is explained discussing the results of various studies, such as the Reactor Safety Study of the USA, the West-German Reactor Safety Study (phases A and B), some other important studies like the RSSMAP and the IREP, as well as the Sizewell B report and an NRC report on precursors to potential severe core damage accidents. (DG) [de

  19. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  20. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  1. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  2. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  3. Risk assessment techniques for industrial installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croitoru, C.; Dumitrescu, M.; Preda, I.; Stefanescu, I.; Titescu, G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a risk analysis which concerns the following stages: identification of the initiation events, evaluation of the occurrence frequency of different accident sequences, assessment of human, economical, and environmental consequences, risk assessment and management. The study of the accident sequences subsequent to an initiation event was achieved by the event tree method. Also, there were developed methods based on mathematical models of installations which take into account reliability data, data concerning the exploitation history, and data referring to the human factor effects in the installation operation. These methods were used for the determination of occurrence frequencies of hydrogen sulfide emission accidents in the heavy water production installations

  4. Assessment of procurement methods used for executing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of procurement methods used for executing maintenance works in Lagos state. ... Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies and Management ... Others are risk allocation, price competition and flexibility of contract. Finally, better ...

  5. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  6. Bayesian networks: a new method for the modeling of bibliographic knowledge: application to fall risk assessment in geriatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalande, Laure; Bourguignon, Laurent; Carlier, Chloé; Ducher, Michel

    2013-06-01

    Falls in geriatry are associated with important morbidity, mortality and high healthcare costs. Because of the large number of variables related to the risk of falling, determining patients at risk is a difficult challenge. The aim of this work was to validate a tool to detect patients with high risk of fall using only bibliographic knowledge. Thirty articles corresponding to 160 studies were used to modelize fall risk. A retrospective case-control cohort including 288 patients (88 ± 7 years) and a prospective cohort including 106 patients (89 ± 6 years) from two geriatric hospitals were used to validate the performances of our model. We identified 26 variables associated with an increased risk of fall. These variables were split into illnesses, medications, and environment. The combination of the three associated scores gives a global fall score. The sensitivity and the specificity were 31.4, 81.6, 38.5, and 90 %, respectively, for the retrospective and the prospective cohort. The performances of the model are similar to results observed with already existing prediction tools using model adjustment to data from numerous cohort studies. This work demonstrates that knowledge from the literature can be synthesized with Bayesian networks.

  7. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  8. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  9. A method to assess maritime resilience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rypkema, J.A.; Beek, F.A. van der; Schraagen, J.M.C.; Winkelman, J.W.; Wijngaarden, M. van

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a multi-level resilience analysis method (RAM) to assess risk and performance variability in current maritime socio-technical systems (STSs). The method integrates Hollnagel’s four resilience abilities to assess a system’s ability to effectively cope with

  10. Study of field assessment methods and worker risks for processing alternatives to support principles for FUSRAP waste materials. Part 1: Treatment methods and comparative risks of thorium removal from waste residues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Porter, R.D.; Hamby, D.M.; Martin, J.E.

    1997-07-01

    This study was done to examine the risks of remediation and the effectiveness of removal methods for thorium and its associated radioactive decay products from various soils and wastes associated with DOE`s Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Its purpose was to provide information to the Environmental Management Advisory Board`s FUSRAP Committee for use in its deliberation of guiding principles for FUSRAP sites, in particular the degree to which treatment should be considered in the FUSRAP Committee`s recommendations. Treatment of FUSRAP wastes to remove thorium could be beneficial to management of lands that contain thorium if such treatment were effective and cost efficient. It must be recognized, however, that treatment methods invariably require workers to process residues and waste materials usually with bulk handling techniques. These processes expose workers to the radioactivity in the materials, therefore, workers would incur radiological risks in addition to industrial accident risks. An important question is whether the potential reduction of future radiological risks to members of the public justifies the risks that are incurred by remediation workers due to handling materials. This study examines, first, the effectiveness of treatment and then the risks that would be associated with remediation. Both types of information should be useful for decisions on whether and how to apply thorium removal methods to FUSRAP waste materials.

  11. Study of field assessment methods and worker risks for processing alternatives to support principles for FURSRAP waste materials. Part 1: Treatment methods and comparative risks of thorium removal from waste residues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porter, R.D.; Hamby, D.M.; Martin, J.E.

    1997-07-01

    This study was done to examine the risks of remediation and the effectiveness of removal methods for thorium and its associated radioactive decay products from various soils and wastes associated with DOE's Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Its purpose was to provide information to the Environmental Management Advisory Board's FUSRAP Committee for use in its deliberation of guiding principles for FUSRAP sites, in particular the degree to which treatment should be considered in the FUSRAP Committee's recommendations. Treatment of FUSRAP wastes to remove thorium could be beneficial to management of lands that contain thorium if such treatment were effective and cost efficient. It must be recognized, however, that treatment methods invariably require workers to process residues and waste materials usually with bulk handling techniques. These processes expose workers to the radioactivity in the materials, therefore, workers would incur radiological risks in addition to industrial accident risks. An important question is whether the potential reduction of future radiological risks to members of the public justifies the risks that are incurred by remediation workers due to handling materials. This study examines, first, the effectiveness of treatment and then the risks that would be associated with remediation. Both types of information should be useful for decisions on whether and how to apply thorium removal methods to FUSRAP waste materials

  12. Geo-mapping of time trends in childhood caries risk--a method for assessment of preventive care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strömberg, Ulf; Holmn, Anders; Magnusson, Kerstin

    2012-01-01

    Dental caries is unevenly distributed within populations with a higher burden in low socio-economy groups. Several attempts have been made to allocate resources to those that need them the most; there is a need for convenient approaches to population-based monitoring of caries risk over time...

  13. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  14. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  15. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  16. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  17. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  18. Utility Assessment Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-05-01

    Raiffa (831, LaValle [891, and other books on decision analysis. 4.2 Risk Attitudes Much recent research has focused on the investigation of various risk...Issacs, G.L., Hamer, R., Chen, J., Chuang, D., Woodworth, G., Molenaar , I., Lewis C., and Libby, D., Manual for the Computer-Assisted Data Analysis (CADA

  19. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  20. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  1. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  2. Observational methods to assess the effectiveness of screening colonoscopy in reducing right colon cancer mortality risk: SCOLAR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Michael; Fletcher, Robert H; Doria-Rose, V Paul; Jensen, Christopher D; Zebrowski, Alexis M; Becerra, Tracy A; Quinn, Virginia P; Zauber, Ann G; Corley, Douglas A; Doubeni, Chyke A

    2015-11-01

    Screening colonoscopy's effectiveness in reducing risk of death from right colon cancers remains unclear. Methodological challenges of existing observational studies addressing this issue motivated the design of 'Effectiveness of Screening for Colorectal Cancer in Average-Risk Adults (SCOLAR)'. SCOLAR is a nested case-control study based on two large integrated health systems. This affords access to a large, well-defined historical cohort linked to integrated data on cancer outcomes, patient eligibility, test indications and important confounders. We found electronic data adequate for excluding ineligible patients (except family history), but not the detailed information needed for test indication assignment. The lessons of SCOLAR's design and implementation may be useful for future studies seeking to evaluate the effectiveness of screening tests in community settings.

  3. Optimization method to branch-and-bound large SBO state spaces under dynamic probabilistic risk assessment via use of LENDIT scales and S2R2 sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, Joseph; Tokuhiro, Akira; Khatry, Jivan; Hiromoto, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods have been developed to evaluate risk associated with complex systems; however, PRA methods lack the capability to evaluate complex dynamic systems. In these systems, time and energy scales associated with transient events may vary as a function of transition times and energies to arrive at a different physical state. Dynamic PRA (DPRA) methods provide a more rigorous analysis of complex dynamic systems. Unfortunately DPRA methods introduce issues associated with combinatorial explosion of states. In order to address this combinatorial complexity, a branch-and-bound optimization technique is applied to the DPRA formalism to control the combinatorial state explosion. In addition, a new characteristic scaling metric (LENDIT – length, energy, number, distribution, information and time) is proposed as linear constraints that are used to guide the branch-and-bound algorithm to limit the number of possible states to be analyzed. The LENDIT characterization is divided into four groups or sets – 'state, system, resource and response' (S2R2) – describing reactor operations (normal and off-normal). In this paper we introduce the branch-and-bound DPRA approach and the application of LENDIT scales and S2R2 sets to a station blackout (SBO) transient. (author)

  4. Application of Probabilistic Methods to Assess Risk Due to Resonance in the Design of J-2X Rocket Engine Turbine Blades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Andrew M.; DeHaye, Michael; DeLessio, Steven

    2011-01-01

    The LOX-Hydrogen J-2X Rocket Engine, which is proposed for use as an upper-stage engine for numerous earth-to-orbit and heavy lift launch vehicle architectures, is presently in the design phase and will move shortly to the initial development test phase. Analysis of the design has revealed numerous potential resonance issues with hardware in the turbomachinery turbine-side flow-path. The analysis of the fuel pump turbine blades requires particular care because resonant failure of the blades, which are rotating in excess of 30,000 revolutions/minutes (RPM), could be catastrophic for the engine and the entire launch vehicle. This paper describes a series of probabilistic analyses performed to assess the risk of failure of the turbine blades due to resonant vibration during past and present test series. Some significant results are that the probability of failure during a single complete engine hot-fire test is low (1%) because of the small likelihood of resonance, but that the probability increases to around 30% for a more focused turbomachinery-only test because all speeds will be ramped through and there is a greater likelihood of dwelling at more speeds. These risk calculations have been invaluable for use by program management in deciding if risk-reduction methods such as dampers are necessary immediately or if the test can be performed before the risk-reduction hardware is ready.

  5. Use of quantitative uncertainty analysis for human health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, F.L.W.; Gordon, J.W.; Kelly, M.

    1994-01-01

    Current human health risk assessment method for environmental risks typically use point estimates of risk accompanied by qualitative discussions of uncertainty. Alternatively, Monte Carlo simulations may be used with distributions for input parameters to estimate the resulting risk distribution and descriptive risk percentiles. These two techniques are applied for the ingestion of 1,1=dichloroethene in ground water. The results indicate that Monte Carlo simulations provide significantly more information for risk assessment and risk management than do point estimates

  6. The legacy of extreme sea levels for the assessment of future coastal flood risk – A review of methods applied in Denmark, Germany and Norway

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsen, Jan Even; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Dangendore, Sönke

    in the three countries is discussed. Here, national approaches to deal with risk, risk acceptance and uncertainty vary, among other factors, as a result of the different assessments of extreme events. In hazard and vulnerability assessments, for instance, where results are highly dependent on the quality...

  7. Advanced methods for the risk, vulnerability and resilience assessment of safety-critical engineering components, systems and infrastructures, in the presence of uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedroni, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    Safety-critical industrial installations (e.g., nuclear plants) and infrastructures (e.g., power transmission networks) are complex systems composed by a multitude and variety of heterogeneous 'elements', which are highly interconnected and mutually dependent. In addition, such systems are affected by large uncertainties in the characterization of the failure and recovery behavior of their components, interconnections and interactions. Such characteristics raise concerns with respect to the system risk, vulnerability and resilience properties, which have to be accurately and precisely assessed for decision making purposes. In general, this entails the following main steps: (1) representation of the system to capture its main features; (2) construction of a mathematical model of the system; (3) simulation of the behavior of the system under various uncertain conditions to evaluate the relevant risk, vulnerability and resilience metrics by propagating the uncertainties through the mathematical model; (4) decision making to (optimally) determine the set of protective actions to effectively reduce (resp., increase) the system risk and vulnerability (resp., resilience). New methods to address these issues have been developed in this dissertation. Specifically, the research works have been carried out along two main axes: (1) the study of approaches for uncertainty modeling and quantification; (2) the development of advanced computational methods for the efficient system modeling, simulation and analysis in the presence of uncertainties. (author)

  8. Multi-factor evaluation indicator method for the risk assessment of atmospheric and oceanic hazard group due to the attack of tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Peng; Du, Mei

    2018-06-01

    China's southeast coastal areas frequently suffer from storm surge due to the attack of tropical cyclones (TCs) every year. Hazards induced by TCs are complex, such as strong wind, huge waves, storm surge, heavy rain, floods, and so on. The atmospheric and oceanic hazards cause serious disasters and substantial economic losses. This paper, from the perspective of hazard group, sets up a multi-factor evaluation method for the risk assessment of TC hazards using historical extreme data of concerned atmospheric and oceanic elements. Based on the natural hazard dynamic process, the multi-factor indicator system is composed of nine natural hazard factors representing intensity and frequency, respectively. Contributing to the indicator system, in order of importance, are maximum wind speed by TCs, attack frequency of TCs, maximum surge height, maximum wave height, frequency of gusts ≥ Scale 8, rainstorm intensity, maximum tidal range, rainstorm frequency, then sea-level rising rate. The first four factors are the most important, whose weights exceed 10% in the indicator system. With normalization processing, all the single-hazard factors are superposed by multiplying their weights to generate a superposed TC hazard. The multi-factor evaluation indicator method was applied to the risk assessment of typhoon-induced atmospheric and oceanic hazard group in typhoon-prone southeast coastal cities of China.

  9. A novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with VB program to identify and assess the risk of coal dust explosions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hetang Wang

    Full Text Available Coal dust explosions (CDE are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents.

  10. Review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Davis, P.R.; Satterwhite, D.G.; Gilmore, W.E.; Gregg, R.E.

    1989-11-01

    A review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant probabilistic risk Assessment was conducted with the objective of confirming the safety perspectives brought to light by the probabilistic risk assessment. The scope of the review included the entire Level I probabilistic risk assessment including external events. This is consistent with the scope of the probabilistic risk assessment. The review included an assessment of the assumptions, methods, models, and data used in the study. 47 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs

  11. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perkins, W.C.

    1984-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory uses probabilistic methods of risk assessment in safety analyses of reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. This method uses both the probability of an accident and its consequence to calculate the risks from radiological, chemical, and industrial hazards. The three principal steps in such an assesment are identification of accidents, calculation of frequencies, and consequence quantification. The tools used at SRL include several databanks, logic tree methods, and computer-assisted methods for calculating both frequencies and consequences. 5 figures

  12. Methods for the elicitation and use of expert opinion in risk assessment: Phase 1, A critical evaluation and directions for future research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosleh, A.; Bier, V.M.; Apostolakis, G.

    1987-08-01

    The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is represented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data; recent assessments of seismic hazard rates; assessments of containment phenomenology; assessments of human error rates; and accident precursor studies. The review has yielded mixed results. On the negative side, there appears to be little reliance on normative expertise in structuring the process of expert opinion elicitation and use; most applications instead rely primarily on the common sense of the experts involved in the analysis, which is not always an adequate guide. On the positive side, however, there is evidence that expert opinions can in fact be used well in practical settings. Suggestions are given for Phase II work to enhance the applicability and use of appropriate expert opinion methods

  13. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  15. Comparison between three different LCIA methods for aquatic ecotoxicity and a product Environmental Risk Assessment – Insights from a Detergent Case Study within OMNIITOX

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pant, Rana; Van Hoof, Geert; Feijtel, Tom

    2004-01-01

    set of physico-chemical and toxicological effect data to enable a better comparison of the methodological differences. For the same reason, the system boundaries were kept the same in all cases, focusing on emissions into water at the disposal stage. Results and Discussion. Significant differences...... ecotoxicity is not satisfactory, unless explicit reasons for the differences are identifiable. This can hamper practical decision support, as LCA practitioners usually will not be in a position to choose the 'right' LCIA method for their specific case. This puts a challenge to the entire OMNIITOX project......) with results from an Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA). Material and Methods. The LCIA has been conducted with EDIP97 (chronic aquatic ecotoxicity) [1], USES-LCA (freshwater and marine water aquatic ecotoxicity, sometimes referred to as CML2001) [2, 3] and IMPACT 2002 (covering freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity...

  16. Cultural and Molecular Evidence of Legionella spp. Colonization in Dental Unit Waterlines: Which Is the Best Method for Risk Assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditommaso, Savina; Giacomuzzi, Monica; Ricciardi, Elisa; Zotti, Carla M

    2016-02-06

    Legionella spp. are ubiquitous in aquatic habitats and water distribution systems, including dental unit waterlines (DUWLs). The aim of the present study was to determine the prevalence of Legionella in DUWLs and tap water samples using PMA-qPCR and standard culture methods. The total viable counts (TVCs) of aerobic heterotrophic bacteria in the samples were also determined. Legionella spp. were detected and quantified using the modified ISO 11731 culture method. Extracted genomic DNA was analysed using the iQ-Check Quanti Legionella spp. kit, and the TVCs were determined according to the ISO protocol 6222. Legionella spp. were detected in 100% of the samples using the PMA-qPCR method, whereas these bacteria were detected in only 7% of the samples using the culture method. The number of colony forming units (CFUs) of the TVCs in the DUWL and tap water samples differed, with the bacterial load being significantly lower in the tap water samples (p-value = 0). The counts obtained were within the Italian standard range established for potable water in only 5% of the DUWL water samples and in 77% of the tap water samples. Our results show that the level of Legionella spp. contamination determined using the culture method does not reflect the true scale of the problem, and consequently we recommend testing for the presence of aerobic heterotrophic bacteria based on the assumption that Legionella spp. are components of biofilms.

  17. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  18. An ecologically-based method for selecting ecological indicators for assessing risks to biological diversity from genetically-engineered plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andow, D. A.; Lövei, Gabor L; Arpaia, Salvatore

    2013-01-01

    into ecological functional groups and selecting those that deliver the identified environmental values. (3) All of the species or ecosystem processes related to the selected functional groups are identified and (4) multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is used to rank the indicator endpoint entities, which may...... adverse effects to biological diversity. The approach starts by (1) identifying the local environmental values so the ERA addresses specific concerns associated with local biological diversity. The model simplifies the indicator endpoint selection problem by (2) classifying biological diversity...... be species or ecological processes. MCDA focuses on those species and processes that are critical for the identified ecological functions and are likely to be highly exposed to the GE organism. The highest ranked indicator entities are selected for the next step. (5) Relevant risk hypotheses are identified...

  19. Risk assessment - a research program aimed at health risks from air pollution in the general environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindahl-Kiessling, K.; Ahlborg, U.; Bylin, G.; Ehrenberg, L.; Hemminki, K.; Lindell, B.; Nilsson, Robert; Bostroem, C.E.; Swarn, U.

    1991-01-01

    The paper presents a new research program for assessment of health risks caused by air pollutants. It is important to develop general methods for quantitative risk assessments and to improve the scientific base materials. (KAE)

  20. A proposed method to assess the damage risk of future climate change to museum objects in historic buildings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbregts, Z.; Kramer, R.P.; Martens, M.H.J.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.

    2012-01-01

    Future climate change is expected to have a critical effect on valuable museum collections that are housed in historic buildings. Changes of the indoor environment in the building affect the microclimate around the museum objects and may cause damage to the collection. In this study, a method is

  1. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  3. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  4. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  5. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  6. Feasibility study of a probabilistic method in seismic risk assessment. Application to the South-East of France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goula, Xavier.

    1980-09-01

    The analysis of the seismic hazard has given rise to the publication of the methods used in various countries (Cornell, 1968 - McGuire, 1977 - Saegesser, 1978). The purpose of this study is to examine the application of such methods to a concrete case in France. The choice fell on the south-eastern region where seismic data are relatively plentiful. The analysis includes the following stages: (1) collating historical seismic data for the region in question, (2) defining the source-areas where the historic earthquakes show similarities with respect to the decrease in intensity depending on the epicentral distance, (3) delimitating new source-areas, covering the entire region and, for each one, defining the mean frequencies of the occurrence of earthquakes of different epicentral intensities per annum and per sq.km. for each area, (4) for a given point, and possibly for the whole region, the local effects linked to the source-areas taken as a whole are aggregated with the mean propagation laws, by integrating in the analysis the uncertainties due to the adjustments of these laws to the experimental data. It would appear that in such a method the description of the sources by the magnitudes has been abandoned; for each area an earthquake shock is entirely described by its epicentral intensity and by a mean depth determined as from the configuration of the isoseists of the earthquake shocks interpreted according to an accepted model [fr

  7. Development of a Risk-Based Performance Assessment Method for Long-Term Cover Systems--Application to the Monticello Mill Tailings Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    HO, CLIFFORD K.; ARNOLD, BILL W.; COCHRAN, JOHN R.; WEBB, STEPHEN W.; TAIRA, RANDAL Y.

    2001-01-01

    A probabilistic, risk-based performance-assessment methodology is being developed to assist designers, regulators, and involved stakeholders in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. This report presents an example of the risk-based performance-assessment method using a repository site in Monticello, Utah. At the Monticello site, a long-term cover system is being used to isolate long-lived uranium mill tailings from the biosphere. Computer models were developed to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models were then integrated into a total-system performance-assessment model, and uncertainty distributions of important input parameters were constructed and sampled in a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple realizations were simulated using the integrated model to produce cumulative distribution functions of the performance metrics, which were used to assess cover performance for both present- and long-term future conditions. Performance metrics for this study included the water percolation reaching the uranium mill tailings, radon flux at the surface, groundwater concentrations, and dose. Results of this study can be used to identify engineering and environmental parameters (e.g., liner properties, long-term precipitation, distribution coefficients) that require additional data to reduce uncertainty in the calculations and improve confidence in the model predictions. These results can also be used to evaluate alternative engineering designs and to identify parameters most important to long-term performance

  8. Novel technologies and an overall strategy to allow hazard assessment and risk prediction of chemicals, cosmetics, and drugs with animal-free methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leist, Marcel; Lidbury, Brett A; Yang, Chihae; Hayden, Patrick J; Kelm, Jens M; Ringeissen, Stephanie; Detroyer, Ann; Meunier, Jean R; Rathman, James F; Jackson, George R; Stolper, Gina; Hasiwa, Nina

    2012-01-01

    Several alternative methods to replace animal experiments have been accepted by legal bodies. An even larger number of tests are under development or already in use for non-regulatory applications or for the generation of information stored in proprietary knowledge bases. The next step for the use of the different in vitro methods is their combination into integrated testing strategies (ITS) to get closer to the overall goal of predictive "in vitro-based risk evaluation processes." We introduce here a conceptual framework as the basis for future ITS and their use for risk evaluation without animal experiments. The framework allows incorporation of both individual tests and already integrated approaches. Illustrative examples for elements to be incorporated are drawn from the session "Innovative technologies" at the 8th World Congress on Alternatives and Animal Use in the Life Sciences, held in Montreal, 2011. For instance, LUHMES cells (conditionally immortalized human neurons) were presented as an example for a 2D cell system. The novel 3D platform developed by InSphero was chosen as an example for the design and use of scaffold-free, organotypic microtissues. The identification of critical pathways of toxicity (PoT) may be facilitated by approaches exemplified by the MatTek 3D model for human epithelial tissues with engineered toxicological reporter functions. The important role of in silico methods and of modeling based on various pre-existing data is demonstrated by Altamira's comprehensive approach to predicting a molecule's potential for skin irritancy. A final example demonstrates how natural variation in human genetics may be overcome using data analytic (pattern recognition) techniques borrowed from computer science and statistics. The overall hazard and risk assessment strategy integrating these different examples has been compiled in a graphical work flow.

  9. New methods for fall risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ejupi, Andreas; Lord, Stephen R; Delbaere, Kim

    2014-09-01

    Accidental falls are the leading cause of injury-related death and hospitalization in old age, with over one-third of the older adults experiencing at least one fall or more each year. Because of limited healthcare resources, regular objective fall risk assessments are not possible in the community on a large scale. New methods for fall prediction are necessary to identify and monitor those older people at high risk of falling who would benefit from participating in falls prevention programmes. Technological advances have enabled less expensive ways to quantify physical fall risk in clinical practice and in the homes of older people. Recently, several studies have demonstrated that sensor-based fall risk assessments of postural sway, functional mobility, stepping and walking can discriminate between fallers and nonfallers. Recent research has used low-cost, portable and objective measuring instruments to assess fall risk in older people. Future use of these technologies holds promise for assessing fall risk accurately in an unobtrusive manner in clinical and daily life settings.

  10. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  11. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  12. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Air Transportation System: An Independent Assessment of TSA’s Risk Management Analysis Tool and Associated Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    considered under RMAT, expanding the range of attack pathways available to attackers, and inclusion of off-airport freight pro- cessing, catering ...perspectives on risk from Boeing and from consultations with Randy Harris of Delta Airlines , Eric Thacker of the Air Transport Association, and Chris...multiple first-class airline tickets) and, as a result, less attractive than publicly available information, which is relatively inexpensive. It

  14. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  15. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  16. Quantitative risk assessment of digitalized safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Sung Min; Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hym Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Jun [UNIST, Ulasn (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    A report published by the U.S. National Research Council indicates that appropriate methods for assessing reliability are key to establishing the acceptability of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in safety-critical plants such as NPPs. Since the release of this issue, the methodology for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I and C systems has been studied. However, there is still no widely accepted method. Kang and Sung found three critical factors for safety assessment of digital systems: detection coverage of fault-tolerant techniques, software reliability quantification, and network communication risk. In reality the various factors composing digitalized I and C systems are not independent of each other but rather closely connected. Thus, from a macro point of view, a method that can integrate risk factors with different characteristics needs to be considered together with the micro approaches to address the challenges facing each factor.

  17. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  18. Review of problems and methods for radiation risk assessment in the environment of a nuclear power plant; Pregled problematike in metodologije ocenjivanja radijacijske nevarnosti za okolico nuklearne elektrane

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grgic, M [Nuklearni institut ' Jozef Stefan' , Ljubljana (Yugoslavia)

    1966-07-01

    Radiation impact on the nuclear power plant environment is a very important problem which has to be solved during design and construction. Damage that could be caused by release of radioactive material into the environment should be estimated and the magnitude of nuclear and radiation risk of the power plant should be evaluated. In general the accuracy of estimation is rather poor due to statistical fluctuations of the conditions which influence radioactivity expansion in the environment, especially in the air. Different uncertainties and unresolved problems influence the inaccuracy. Since any real risk should be extremely small compared to potential risk i.e. risk induced by nuclear power plant without any safety measures, even inaccurate estimations are very useful. Method for environmental radiation risk assessment is based on relatively simple models of radiation expansion in the environment and in the air. These models are theoretically solved but they are based on relatively limited number of experimental data. Assessment of the radiation effects on the population health and mortality is an important problem. [Slovenian] Radiacijska nevarnost za okolico nuklearne elektrarne je zelo vazen problem, ki ga je treba resiti ze pri projektiranju in gradnji. Treba je oceniti skodo, ki bi jo povzrocila v okolici neka dolocena sprostitev radioaktivnosti in na osnovi tega dimenzionirati ukrepe nuklearne in radiacijske varnosti same elektrarne. Natancnost ocenjevanja je v splosnem zelo slaba. Temu so v precejsnji meri krive statisticne fluktuacije pogojev, ki vplivajo na razsirjanje radioaktivnosti v okolici, ziasti po zraku. Na nenatancnost pa vplivajo tudi razne nejasnosti in se nereseni problemi. Ken pa mora biti dejanska nevarnost izredno majhna v primerjavi s potencialne nevarnostjo oziroma z nevannostjo, ki bi jo predstavjala nuklearna elektrarna, ce bi zanemarili vse varnostne ukrepe, so tudi taksne nenatancne ocene zelo koristne. Metode ocenjevanja radiacijske

  19. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  20. An integrated simulation method for flash-flood risk assessment: 2. Effects of changes in land-use under a historical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosso, R.; Rulli, M. C.

    The influence of land use changes on flood occurrence and severity in the Bisagno River (Thyrrenian Liguria, N.W. Italy is investigated using a Monte Carlo simulation approach (Rulli and Rosso, 2002). High resolution land-use maps for the area were reconstructed and scenario simulations were made for a pre-industrial (1878), an intermediate (1930) and a current (1980) year. Land-use effects were explored to assess the consequences of distributed changes in land use due to agricultural practice and urbanisation. Hydraulic conveyance effects were considered, to assess the consequences of channel modifications associated with engineering works in the lower Bisagno River network. Flood frequency analyses of the annual flood series, retrieved from the simulations, were used to examine the effect of land-use change and river conveyance on flood regime. The impact of these effects proved to be negligible in the upper Bisagno River, moderate in the downstream river and severe in the small tributaries in the lower Bisagno valley that drain densely populated urban areas. The simulation approach is shown to be capable of incorporating historical data on landscape and river patterns into quantitative methods for risk assessment.

  1. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  2. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  4. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  5. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  6. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  7. INFORMATION SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT USING EXISTING LEGAL AND METHODOLOGICAL BASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Trubei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides a survey of the existing regulatory framework for information security riskmanagement. Practical methods for information security risk and vulnerability assessment are proposed.

  8. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  9. Information System Quality Assessment Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Korn, Alexandra

    2014-01-01

    This thesis explores challenging topic of information system quality assessment and mainly process assessment. In this work the term Information System Quality is defined as well as different approaches in a quality definition for different domains of information systems are outlined. Main methods of process assessment are overviewed and their relationships are described. Process assessment methods are divided into two categories: ISO standards and best practices. The main objective of this w...

  10. Evaluating the role of coastal habitats and sea-level rise in hurricane risk mitigation: An ecological economic assessment method and application to a business decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Sheila M W; Guannel, Gregory; Griffin, Robert; Faries, Joe; Boucher, Timothy; Thompson, Michael; Brenner, Jorge; Bernhardt, Joey; Verutes, Gregory; Wood, Spencer A; Silver, Jessica A; Toft, Jodie; Rogers, Anthony; Maas, Alexander; Guerry, Anne; Molnar, Jennifer; DiMuro, Johnathan L

    2016-04-01

    Businesses may be missing opportunities to account for ecosystem services in their decisions, because they do not have methods to quantify and value ecosystem services. We developed a method to quantify and value coastal protection and other ecosystem services in the context of a cost-benefit analysis of hurricane risk mitigation options for a business. We first analyze linked biophysical and economic models to examine the potential protection provided by marshes. We then applied this method to The Dow Chemical Company's Freeport, Texas facility to evaluate natural (marshes), built (levee), and hybrid (marshes and a levee designed for marshes) defenses against a 100-y hurricane. Model analysis shows that future sea-level rise decreases marsh area, increases flood heights, and increases the required levee height (12%) and cost (8%). In this context, marshes do not provide sufficient protection to the facility, located 12 km inland, to warrant a change in levee design for a 100-y hurricane. Marshes do provide some protection near shore and under smaller storm conditions, which may help maintain the coastline and levee performance in the face of sea-level rise. In sum, the net present value to the business of built defenses ($217 million [2010 US$]) is greater than natural defenses ($15 million [2010 US$]) and similar to the hybrid defense scenario ($229 million [2010 US$]). Examination of a sample of public benefits from the marshes shows they provide at least $117 million (2010 US$) in coastal protection, recreational value, and C sequestration to the public, while supporting 12 fisheries and more than 300 wildlife species. This study provides information on where natural defenses may be effective and a replicable approach that businesses can use to incorporate private, as well as public, ecosystem service values into hurricane risk management at other sites. © 2015 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc

  11. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  12. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

  13. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  14. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  15. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  16. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  17. Mixtures and their risk assessment in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Moiz M; Hansen, Hugh; Pohl, Hana R

    2011-01-01

    For communities generally and for persons living in the vicinity of waste sites specifically, potential exposures to chemical mixtures are genuine concerns. Such concerns often arise from perceptions of a site's higher than anticipated toxicity due to synergistic interactions among chemicals. This chapter outlines some historical approaches to mixtures risk assessment. It also outlines ATSDR's current approach to toxicity risk assessment. The ATSDR's joint toxicity assessment guidance for chemical mixtures addresses interactions among components of chemical mixtures. The guidance recommends a series of steps that include simple calculations for a systematic analysis of data leading to conclusions regarding any hazards chemical mixtures might pose. These conclusions can, in turn, lead to recommendations such as targeted research to fill data gaps, development of new methods using current science, and health education to raise awareness of residents and health care providers. The chapter also provides examples of future trends in chemical mixtures assessment.

  18. Presentation of a method for consequence modeling and quantitative risk assessment of fire and explosion in process industry (Case study: Hydrogen Production Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M J Jafari

    2013-05-01

     .Conclusion: Since the proposed method is applicable in all phases of process or system design, and estimates the risk of fire and explosion by a quantitative, comprehensive and mathematical-based equations approach. It can be used as an alternative method instead of qualitative and semi quantitative methods.

  19. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  20. Review. Assessing uncertainty and risk in forest planning and decision support systems: review of classical methods and introduction of new approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pasalodos-Tato

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Since forest planning is characterized by long time horizon and it typically involves large areas of land and numerous stakeholders, uncertainty and risk should play an important role when developing forest management plans. The aim of this study is to review different methods to deal with risk and uncertainty in forest planning, listing problems that forest managers may face during the preparation of management plans and trying to give recommendations in regard to the application of each method according to the problem case. The inclusion of risk and uncertainty in decision support systems is also analyzed.Area: It covers the temporal and spatial scale of forest planning, the spatial context, the participation process, the objectives dimensions and the good and services addressed.Material and methods: Several hundreds of articles dealing with uncertainty and risk were identified regarding different forestry-related topics and approaches. Form them, around 170 articles were further reviewed, categorized and evaluated.Main results: The study presents a thorough review and classification of methods and approaches to consider risk and uncertainty in forest planning. Moreover, new approaches are introduced, showing the opportunities that their application present in forest planning.Research highlights: The study can aid forest managers in the decision making process when designing a forest management plan considering risk and uncertainty.Keywords: operations research; optimal alternative; stochastic risk; endogenous risk; stand level; forest level.

  1. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  2. Assessment of high-risk human papillomavirus infections using clinician- and self-collected cervical sampling methods in rural women from far western Nepal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek C Johnson

    Full Text Available Nepal has one of the highest cervical cancer rates in South Asia. Only a few studies in populations from urban areas have investigated type specific distribution of human papillomavirus (HPV in Nepali women. Data on high-risk HPV (HR-HPV types are not currently available for rural populations in Nepal. We aimed to assess the distribution of HR- HPV among rural Nepali women while assessing self-collected and clinician-collected cervico-vaginal specimens as sample collection methods for HPV screening.Study participants were recruited during a health camp conducted by Nepal Fertility Care Center in Achham District of rural far western Nepal. Women of reproductive age completed a socio-demographic and clinical questionnaire, and provided two specimens; one cervical-vaginal specimen using a self-collection method and another cervical specimen collected by health camp auxiliary nurse midwives during a pelvic examination. All samples were tested for 14 different HR-HPV mRNA and also specific for HPV16/18/45 mRNA.Of 261 women with both clinician- and self-collected cervical samples, 25 tested positive for HR-HPV, resulting in an overall HR-HPV prevalence of 9.6% (95% confidence Interval [CI]: 6.3-13.8. The overall Kappa value assessing agreement between clinician- and self-collected tests was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.43-0.81, indicating a "good" level of agreement. Abnormal cytology was reported for 8 women. One woman identified with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC, and 7 women with high grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL. Seven of the 8 women tested positive for HR-HPV (87.5% in clinician-collected samples and 6 in self-collected samples (75.0%.This is the first study to assess HR-HPV among rural Nepali women. Self-collected sampling methods should be the subject of additional research in Nepal for screening HR-HPV, associated with pre-cancer lesions and cancer, in women in rural areas with limited access to health services.

  3. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  4. THE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ERP-SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Oladko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

  5. Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, Hiromitsu

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

  6. Methods for risk estimation in nuclear energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gauvenet, A [CEA, 75 - Paris (France)

    1979-01-01

    The author presents methods for estimating the different risks related to nuclear energy: immediate or delayed risks, individual or collective risks, risks of accidents and long-term risks. These methods have attained a highly valid level of elaboration and their application to other industrial or human problems is currently under way, especially in English-speaking countries.

  7. The impact of the human genome project on risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katarzyna Doerffer; Paul Unrau.

    1996-01-01

    The radiation protection approach to risk assessment assumes that cancer induction following radiation exposure is purely random. Present risk assessment methods derive risk from cancer incidence frequencies in exposed populations and associate disease outcomes totally with the level of exposure to ionizing red aeon. Exposure defines a risk factor that affects the probability of the disease outcome. But cancer risk can be affected by other risk factors such as underlying genetic factors (predisposition) of the exposed organism. These genetic risk factors are now becoming available for incorporation into ionizing radiation risk assessment Progress in the Human Genome Project (HOP) will lead to direct assays to measure the effects of genetic risk determinants in disease outcomes. When all genetic risk determinants are known and incorporated into risk assessment it will be possible to reevaluate the role of ionizing radiation in the causation of cancer. (author)

  8. Safety assessment of nuclear medicine practice using the Risk Matrix Method; Evaluaciones de seguridad de la practica de medicina nuclear utilizando el metodo de Matrices de Riesgo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cruz, Dumenigo; Cruz, Yoanis; Soler, Karen, E-mail: cruz@orasen.co.cu [Centro Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear (CNSN), La Habana (Cuba); Guerrero, Mayka, E-mail: mayka@infomed.sld.cu [Centro de investigaciones Medico Quirurgicas (CIMEQ), La Habana (Cuba)

    2013-10-01

    This paper presents the main results from the application of the methodology of Risk Matrices in a hypothetical service / department of the Nuclear medicine that realize metabolic radiotherapy treatment and diagnostic studies with {sup 131}I and {sup 99} m Tc and {sup 18}F. We could identify major equipment failures and human errors that could potentially lead to a accident in practice. For each analyzed initiating events evaluated the frequency of occurrence, identified key existing defenses to avoid the accident and assessed the potential consequences of an accident if this comes to fruition. With this methodology we could identify which accident sequences increased risk and to propose means to reduce the risk in such cases. As a result of this work was developed the 'RMA Nuclear Medicine' computer tools that will apply this methodology in nuclear medicine services that need to do similar risk assessments.

  9. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  10. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  11. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  12. Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.

    1998-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics

  13. A microbial identification framework for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernatchez, Stéphane; Anoop, Valar; Saikali, Zeina; Breton, Marie

    2018-06-01

    Micro-organisms are increasingly used in a variety of products for commercial uses, including cleaning products. Such microbial-based cleaning products (MBCP) are represented as a more environmentally-friendly alternative to chemically based cleaning products. The identity of the micro-organisms formulated into these products is often considered confidential business information and is not revealed or it is only partly revealed (i.e., identification to the genus, not to the species). That paucity of information complicates the evaluation of the risk associated with their use. The accurate taxonomic identification of those micro-organisms is important so that a suitable risk assessment of the products can be conducted. To alleviate difficulties associated with adequate identification of micro-organisms in MBCP and other products containing micro-organisms, a microbial identification framework for risk assessment (MIFRA) has been elaborated. It serves to provide guidance on a polyphasic tiered approach, combining the data obtained from the use of various methods (i.e., polyphasic approach) combined with the sequential selection of the methods (i.e., tiered) to achieve a satisfactory identity of the micro-organism to an acceptable taxonomic level. The MIFRA is suitable in various risk assessment contexts for micro-organisms used in any commercial product. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Asefzadeh

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

  16. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  17. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  18. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  19. Review. Assessing uncertainty and risk in forest planning and decision support systems: review of classical methods and introduction of innovative approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasalodos-Tato, M.; Makinen, A.; Garcia-Gonzalez, J.; Borges, J. G.; Lamas, T.; Eriksson, L. O.

    2013-09-01

    Aim: Since forest planning is characterized by long time horizon and it typically involves large areas of land and numerous stake holders, uncertainty and risk should play an important role when developing forest management plans. The aim of this study is to review different methods to deal with risk and uncertainty in forest planning, listing problems that forest managers may face during the preparation of management plans and trying to give recommendations in regard to the application of each method according to the problem case. The inclusion of risk and uncertainty in decision support systems is also analyzed. Area: It covers the temporal and spatial scale of forest planning, the spatial context, the participation process, the objectives dimensions and the good and services addressed. Material and methods: Several hundreds of articles dealing with uncertainty and risk were identified regarding different forestry-related topics and approaches. Form them, around 170 articles were further reviewed, categorized and evaluated. Main results: The study presents a thorough review and classification of methods and approaches to consider risk and uncertainty in forest planning. Moreover, new approaches are introduced, showing the opportunities that their application presents in forest planning. Research highlights: The study can aid forest managers in the decision making process when designing a forest management plan considering risk and uncertainty. (Author)

  20. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  1. Risk assessment of tailings facility dam failure

    OpenAIRE

    Hadzi-Nikolova, Marija; Mirakovski, Dejan; Stefanova, Violeta

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the consequences of tailings facility dam failure and therefore the needs for its risk assessment. Tailings are fine-grained wastes of the mining industry, output as slurries, due to mixing with water during mineral processing. Tailings dams vary a lot as it is affected by: tailings characteristics and mill output, site characteristics as: topography, hydrology, geology, groundwater, seismicity and available material and disposal methods. The talings which accumulat...

  2. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  3. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  4. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  5. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    confidence interval under different assumptions regarding the data structure. The results stress the importance to invoke statistical methods and also illustrate how the choice of a wrong methodology may affect the quality of risk assessment and foundations for decision making. The uncertainty in assessing the volume of contaminated soil was shown to be dependant only to a low extent on the interpolation technique used for the specific case study analyzed. It is, however, expected that the uncertainty may increase significantly, if more restrictive risk criteria (lower guideline value) are applied. Despite a possible low uncertainty in assessing the contaminated soil volume, the uncertainty in its localization can be substantial. Based on the demo example presented, it comes out that the risk-based input for decision on soil treatment may vary depending on what assumptions were adopted during interpolation process. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation till spatial distribution of contaminant has been demonstrated by studies on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). The results from numerical simulations show that a lack in knowledge on the receptor moving routes may bring about substantial uncertainty in exposure assessment. The presented concept is mainly applicable for 'mobile' receptors on relatively large areas. A number of statistical definitions/methods/concepts are presented in the report of which some are not elaborated on in detail, while readers are referred to proper literature. The mail goal with the study has been rather to shed more light on aspects related to uncertainty in risk assessment and to demonstrate potential consequences of wrong approach than to provide readers with formal guideline and recommendations. However, the outcome from the study will hopefully contribute to the further work on novel approaches towards more reliable risk assessments

  6. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  7. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  8. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  9. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  10. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  11. Caries Risk Assessment in School Children Using Reduced Cariogram Model

    OpenAIRE

    Taqi, Muhammad; Razak, Ishak Abdul; Ab-Murat, Norintan

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To estimate the percentage of children with low, moderate and high caries risk; and to determine the predictors of caries risk amongst 11-12 year old Pakistani school children. Methods: Subjects’ caries risk was assessed using the Cariogram programme. The survey was done among school children in Bhakkar district of Punjab, Pakistan. Caries and plaque level were assessed using the DMFT and Sillnes and Loe indices respectively, while diet content and frequency were assessed using a t...

  12. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    OpenAIRE

    Xin Sun; Ping Ning; Xiaolong Tang; Honghong Yi; Kai Li; Lianbi Zhou; Xianmang Xu

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the...

  13. Quantum chemistry in environmental pesticide risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villaverde, Juan J; López-Goti, Carmen; Alcamí, Manuel; Lamsabhi, Al Mokhtar; Alonso-Prados, José L; Sandín-España, Pilar

    2017-11-01

    The scientific community and regulatory bodies worldwide, currently promote the development of non-experimental tests that produce reliable data for pesticide risk assessment. The use of standard quantum chemistry methods could allow the development of tools to perform a first screening of compounds to be considered for the experimental studies, improving the risk assessment. This fact results in a better distribution of resources and in better planning, allowing a more exhaustive study of the pesticides and their metabolic products. The current paper explores the potential of quantum chemistry in modelling toxicity and environmental behaviour of pesticides and their by-products by using electronic descriptors obtained computationally. Quantum chemistry has potential to estimate the physico-chemical properties of pesticides, including certain chemical reaction mechanisms and their degradation pathways, allowing modelling of the environmental behaviour of both pesticides and their by-products. In this sense, theoretical methods can contribute to performing a more focused risk assessment of pesticides used in the market, and may lead to higher quality and safer agricultural products. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  14. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  15. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  16. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  17. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  18. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  19. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  20. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  1. N reactor external events probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baxter, J.T.

    1989-01-01

    An external events probabilistic risk assessment of the N Reactor has been completed. The methods used are those currently being proposed for external events analysis in NUREG-1150. Results are presented for the external hazards that survived preliminary screening. They are earthquake, fire, and external flood. Core damage frequencies for these hazards are shown to be comparable to those for commercial pressurized water reactors. Dominant fire sequences are described and related to 10 CFR 50, Appendix R design requirements. Potential remedial measures that reduce fire core damage risk are described including modifications to fire protection systems, procedure changes, and addition of new administrative controls. Dominant seismic sequences are described. The effect of non-safety support system dependencies on seismic risk is presented

  2. Performance of two quantitative PCR methods for microbial source tracking of human sewage and implications for microbial risk assessment in recreational waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Before new, rapid quantitative PCR (qPCR) methods for recreational water quality assessment and microbial source tracking (MST) can be useful in a regulatory context, an understanding of the ability of the method to detect a DNA target (marker) when the contaminant soure has been...

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment in the CPI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guymer, P.; Kaiser, G.D.; Mc Kelvey, T.C.; Hannaman, G.W.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a method of quantifying the frequency of occurrence and magnitude of the consequences of accidents in systems that contain hazardous materials such as toxic, flammable or explosive chemicals. The frequency and magnitude of the consequences are the basic elements in the definition of risk, often simply expressed as the product of frequency and magnitude, summed over all accident sequences. PRA is a mature technique that has been used to estimate risk for a number of industrial facilities: for example, the Canvey Island Petrochemical complex; the Port of Rotterdam; the Reactor Safety Study, the first study to put the risks associated with nuclear power into perspective; and the transportation of chlorine. PRA has been developed to a greater level of sophistication in the nuclear industry than in the chemical industry. In the nuclear area, its usefulness has been demonstrated by increased plant safety, engineering insights, and cost-saving recommendations. Data and methods have been developed to increase the level of realism of the treatment of operator actions in PRA studies. It can be stated generally that the same methods can be applied with equal success in the chemical industry. However, there are pitfalls into which the unwary nuclear-oriented PRA analyst may stumble if he does not bear in mind that there are significant differences between nuclear plants and chemical plants

  4. Human Exposure Risk Assessment Due to Heavy Metals in Groundwater by Pollution Index and Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Case Study from South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Vetrimurugan Elumalai; K. Brindha; Elango Lakshmanan

    2017-01-01

    Heavy metals in surface and groundwater were analysed and their sources were identified using multivariate statistical tools for two towns in South Africa. Human exposure risk through the drinking water pathway was also assessed. Electrical conductivity values showed that groundwater is desirable to permissible for drinking except for six locations. Concentration of aluminium, lead and nickel were above the permissible limit for drinking at all locations. Boron, cadmium, iron and manganese ex...

  5. A framework and methods for incorporating gender-related issues in wildlife risk assessment: gender-related differences in metal levels and other contaminants as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Joanna

    2007-05-01

    Gender plays a role in the genetics, physiology, morphology, and behavior of organisms, and thus influences the uptake, fate, and effects of contaminants in organisms. There are a number of chemical analysis tools, as well as biological approaches to understanding the influence of gender on contaminant levels and effects in wildlife. Biological approaches occur at all levels, from mutagenesis, gene expression and biochemistry, to physiology, morphology and development, to pathology and behavior. Information on the effects of gender at all these levels is essential for model building, risk assessment, and developing biomonitoring plans. Gender influences both internal and external fate and effects. However, bioaccumulation and effects cannot occur without exposure, which is mediated by behavior, bioavailability, bioaccessibility, and absorption. Gender influences a number of individual features (size, nutrition, genetics, hormones), that in turn affect niche differentiation, leading back to differences in exposure and susceptibility. Both sexes have a variety of methods of ridding the body of contaminants, through the bile, urine, exhaled air, and sloughing of epidermal structures (skin, hair, feathers). Females can also rid their body of contaminants through egg contents and egg shells, or mammals by transfer to the developing fetus and through breast milk. The availability of contaminant data in wildlife depends partly on the ease of identification of the sexes by either external or internal examination. Thus, there are more data on contaminant levels in birds and mammals than in fish. Surprisingly, metal levels are not uniformly low in females, even when they are morphologically smaller than males. For 43 studies of metals in vertebrates, females had higher levels in 30 cases where there were significant differences (and males were higher in only 14 cases). Females usually had higher levels of mercury than males. Review of the literature suggests that authors

  6. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  7. Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

    2018-03-01

    The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

  8. Fire risk assessment method under the technical building code; Metodo de evaluacion del reisgo de incendio en el marco del Codigo Tecnico de la Edificacion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez-Martin, J. C.; Diaz-Diaz, R.; Santos-Garcia, R.

    2010-07-01

    The high complexity of measuring and comparing the risk level of performance based design allowed by the Spain Building Code (CTE) and the lack of Spanish legislation on the matter makes a fire risk evaluation tool highly useful guiding the project's and the control authority over the feasibility of these complicated projects. A fire Risk Evaluation Method within the frame of the Spanish Building Code (MEREDICTE) has been developed trying to balance input sources, simplicity and clearness in its use. The number of parameters implied guarantees sound, exhaustive and reliable outputs. MEREDICTE is made of 73 parameters: 31 calculate potential risk and 42 obtain protection level. In an orientative way, MEREDICTE's parameters triple those of the most referred and extended evaluation method: the Gretener Method. The article shows the MEREDICTE technique and foundations, the methodology used in its investigation and development, its most significant innovation and its possible applications. Regarding the protection level, its formulation and applications re referred to the Windsor buildings of Madrid comparing the results obtained on the building as it was devastated by the fire of February 2005 and whether it fulfilled the Spanish building code conditions. (Author) 8 refs.

  9. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  10. Environmental risk assessment: an Australian perspective. Supervising Scientist Report 102

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beer, T.; Ziolkowski, F.

    1995-01-01

    Environmental risk assessment can be used as a strategic tool to set environmental priorities and as a tactical tool to set environmental standards. This report is designed to inform Australian environmental managers about the techniques and applications of environmental risk assessment and to familiarize risk analysts with some of the issues that are of concern to environmental managers. The use of risk assessment is illustrated by applying its techniques to five case studies which include: risk from chemicals and from contaminated sites; risk to people and to the natural environment from development, such as uranium mining; climate change; and risk associated with political decision-making. Then, by considering Australian and overseas practice, a generic framework is presented within which environmental risk assessment in Australia can be undertaken, and possible methods of implementation are discussed. refs., 38 figs

  11. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  12. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing...... the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...... (biodiversity) and the functional (ecosystem services) aspects of the environment, this new approach includes methods for assessing both aspects for the first time in a pest risk assessment scheme. A list of questions has been developed for the assessor to evaluate the consequences for structural biodiversity...

  13. Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

    2010-05-01

    The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment for new and existing chemicals: Example calculations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager T; Hollander HA den; Janssen GB; Poel P van der; Rikken MGJ; Vermeire TG; ECO; CSR; LAE; CSR

    2000-01-01

    In the risk assessment methods for new and existing chemicals in the EU, "risk" is characterised by means of the deterministic quotient of exposure and effects (PEC/PNEC or Margin of Safety). From a scientific viewpoint, the uncertainty in the risk quotient should be accounted for explicitly in the

  15. Dynamic loads during failure risk assessment of bridge crane structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorynin, A. D.; Antsev, V. Yu; Shaforost, A. N.

    2018-03-01

    The paper presents the method of failure risk assessment associated with a bridge crane metal structure at the design stage. It also justifies the necessity of taking into account dynamic loads with regard to the operational cycle of a bridge crane during failure risk assessment of its metal structure.

  16. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Sci