WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment index

  1. Development of environmental risk assessment framework using index method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.W.; Wu, Y.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents a newly developed framework for assessing the risk from events which are considered to be major accidents to the environment according to the classifications by the United Kingdom Department of Environment (DoE). The application of an environmental risk assessment framework using the newly developed index method is demonstrated by means of a case study. The framework makes use of Environmental Hazard Index (EHI) method by the United Kingdom AEA Technology for releases to river, but improves it by taking account to toxic dose rather than concentration; taking account of long-term effects including persistence and bio accumulation, not just short term effects; extending the method to all aspects of environment, not just rivers; and allowing account to be taken of design changes to mitigate the risk. The development of the framework has also led to a revision of the tolerability criteria to be used with the framework proposed earlier by weakness and recommend further work to improve this newly proposed environmental risk assessment framework. From the study, it is recommended that the environmental risk assessment framework be applied to a wide range of other case studies in order to further improve it. The framework should be modified to maintain consistency when the DoE revises its definitions of major accidents to the environment. Ease-of-use of the framework (and any other environmental framework) would be aided by the compilation of databases for environmental toxicity, river data and available consequence models. Further work could also be done to suggest methods of mitigating the risk and including them as numerical factors within method. (author)

  2. Screening for Peripheral Artery Disease and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment with Ankle Brachial Index in Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Force Recommendations Screening for Peripheral Artery Disease and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment with Ankle Brachial Index in Adults ... on Screening for Peripheral Artery Disease (PAD) and Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Risk Assessment with Ankle Brachial Index (ABI) ...

  3. Flood Risk Index Assessment in Johor River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmad Shakir Mohd Saudi; Hafizan Juahir; Azman Azid; Fazureen Azaman; Ahmad Shakir Mohd Saudi

    2015-01-01

    This study is focusing on constructing the flood risk index in the Johor river basin. The application of statistical methods such as factor analysis (FA), statistical process control (SPC) and artificial neural network (ANN) had revealed the most efficient flood risk index. The result in FA was water level has correlation coefficient of 0.738 and the most practicable variable to be used for the warning alert system. The upper control limits (UCL) for the water level in the river basin Johor is 4.423 m and the risk index for the water level has been set by this method consisting of 0-100.The accuracy of prediction has been evaluated by using ANN and the accuracy of the test result was R"2 = 0.96408 with RMSE= 2.5736. The future prediction for UCL in Johor river basin has been predicted and the value was 3.75 m. This model can shows the current and future prediction for flood risk index in the Johor river basin and can help local authorities for flood control and prevention of the state of Johor. (author)

  4. Biomechanical rupture risk assessment of abdominal aortic aneurysms based on a novel probabilistic rupture risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polzer, Stanislav; Gasser, T Christian

    2015-12-06

    A rupture risk assessment is critical to the clinical treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) patients. The biomechanical AAA rupture risk assessment quantitatively integrates many known AAA rupture risk factors but the variability of risk predictions due to model input uncertainties remains a challenging limitation. This study derives a probabilistic rupture risk index (PRRI). Specifically, the uncertainties in AAA wall thickness and wall strength were considered, and wall stress was predicted with a state-of-the-art deterministic biomechanical model. The discriminative power of PRRI was tested in a diameter-matched cohort of ruptured (n = 7) and intact (n = 7) AAAs and compared to alternative risk assessment methods. Computed PRRI at 1.5 mean arterial pressure was significantly (p = 0.041) higher in ruptured AAAs (20.21(s.d. 14.15%)) than in intact AAAs (3.71(s.d. 5.77)%). PRRI showed a high sensitivity and specificity (discriminative power of 0.837) to discriminate between ruptured and intact AAA cases. The underlying statistical representation of stochastic data of wall thickness, wall strength and peak wall stress had only negligible effects on PRRI computations. Uncertainties in AAA wall stress predictions, the wide range of reported wall strength and the stochastic nature of failure motivate a probabilistic rupture risk assessment. Advanced AAA biomechanical modelling paired with a probabilistic rupture index definition as known from engineering risk assessment seems to be superior to a purely deterministic approach. © 2015 The Author(s).

  5. An Integrated Risk Index Model Based on Hierarchical Fuzzy Logic for Underground Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Fayaz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Available space in congested cities is getting scarce due to growing urbanization in the recent past. The utilization of underground space is considered as a solution to the limited space in smart cities. The numbers of underground facilities are growing day by day in the developing world. Typical underground facilities include the transit subway, parking lots, electric lines, water supply and sewer lines. The likelihood of the occurrence of accidents due to underground facilities is a random phenomenon. To avoid any accidental loss, a risk assessment method is required to conduct the continuous risk assessment and report any abnormality before it happens. In this paper, we have proposed a hierarchical fuzzy inference based model for under-ground risk assessment. The proposed hierarchical fuzzy inference architecture reduces the total number of rules from the rule base. Rule reduction is important because the curse of dimensionality damages the transparency and interpretation as it is very tough to understand and justify hundreds or thousands of fuzzy rules. The computation time also increases as rules increase. The proposed model takes 175 rules having eight input parameters to compute the risk index, and the conventional fuzzy logic requires 390,625 rules, having the same number of input parameters to compute risk index. Hence, the proposed model significantly reduces the curse of dimensionality. Rule design for fuzzy logic is also a tedious task. In this paper, we have also introduced new rule schemes, namely maximum rule-based and average rule-based; both schemes can be used interchangeably according to the logic needed for rule design. The experimental results show that the proposed method is a virtuous choice for risk index calculation where the numbers of variables are greater.

  6. A Land-Use Perspective for Birdstrike Risk Assessment: The Attraction Risk Index.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Coccon

    Full Text Available Collisions between aircraft and birds, birdstrikes, pose a serious threat to aviation safety. The occurrence of these events is influenced by land-uses in the surroundings of airports. Airports located in the same region might have different trends for birdstrike risk, due to differences in the surrounding habitats. Here we developed a quantitative tool that assesses the risk of birdstrike based on the habitats within a 13-km buffer from the airport. For this purpose, we developed Generalized Linear Models (GLMs with binomial distribution to estimate the contribution of habitats to wildlife use of the study area, depending on season. These GLMs predictions were combined to the flight altitude of birds within the 13-km buffer, the airport traffic pattern and the severity indices associated with impacts. Our approach was developed at Venice Marco Polo International airport (VCE, located in northeast Italy and then tested at Treviso Antonio Canova International airport (TSF, which is 20 km inland. Results from the two airports revealed that both the surrounding habitats and the season had a significant influence to the pattern of risk. With regard to VCE, agricultural fields, wetlands and urban areas contributed most to the presence of birds in the study area. Furthermore, the key role of distance of land-uses from the airport on the probability of presence of birds was highlighted. The reliability of developed risk index was demonstrated since at VCE it was significantly correlated with bird strike rate. This study emphasizes the importance of the territory near airports and the wildlife use of its habitats, as factors in need of consideration for birdstrike risk assessment procedures. Information on the contribution of habitats in attracting birds, depending on season, can be used by airport managers and local authorities to plan specific interventions in the study area in order to lower the risk.

  7. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  8. Hazard Assessment on Chlorine Distribution Use of Chemical Transportation Risk Index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jeong Gon; Byun, Hun Soo

    2014-01-01

    Chlorine is one of the most produced and most used non-flammable chemical substances in the world even though its toxicity and high reactivity cause the ozone layer depletion. However, in modern life, it is impossible to live a good life without using Chlorine and its derivatives since they are being used as an typical ingredient in more than 40 percent of the manufactured goods including medicines, detergents, deodorant, fungicides, herbicides, insecticides, and plastic, etc. Even if Chlorine has been handled and distributed in various business (small and medium-sized businesses, water purification plants, distribution company, etc.), there have been few researches about its possible health hazard and transportation risks. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to make a detailed assessment of Chlorinerelated risks and to model an index of chemicals transportation risks that is adequate for domestic circumstances. The assessment of possible health hazard and transportation risks was made on 13 kinds of hazardous chemicals, including liquid chlorine. This research may be contributed to standardizing the risk assessment of Chlorine and other hazardous chemicals by using an index of transportation risks

  9. Hazard Assessment on Chlorine Distribution Use of Chemical Transportation Risk Index

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jeong Gon [Hanwha Chemical Ulsan Site, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of); Byun, Hun Soo [Chonnam National University, Yeosu (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-12-15

    Chlorine is one of the most produced and most used non-flammable chemical substances in the world even though its toxicity and high reactivity cause the ozone layer depletion. However, in modern life, it is impossible to live a good life without using Chlorine and its derivatives since they are being used as an typical ingredient in more than 40 percent of the manufactured goods including medicines, detergents, deodorant, fungicides, herbicides, insecticides, and plastic, etc. Even if Chlorine has been handled and distributed in various business (small and medium-sized businesses, water purification plants, distribution company, etc.), there have been few researches about its possible health hazard and transportation risks. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to make a detailed assessment of Chlorinerelated risks and to model an index of chemicals transportation risks that is adequate for domestic circumstances. The assessment of possible health hazard and transportation risks was made on 13 kinds of hazardous chemicals, including liquid chlorine. This research may be contributed to standardizing the risk assessment of Chlorine and other hazardous chemicals by using an index of transportation risks.

  10. THE ASSESSMENT OF LIFE STYLE AND THE VISCERAL ADIPOSITY INDEX AS CARDIOMETABOLIC RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigina R. GÂRGAVU

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The patients with cardiometabolic/ cardiovascular risk are commonly found in clinics and ambulatory clinics. The cardiovascular (CV or cardiometabolic (CM risk factors and biomarkers are certain characteristics of the person without CV disease, which are independently correlated with the subsequent occurrence of CV disease, without necessarily having a causal relationship between factor and disease. The visceral adiposity index (VAI indicates the function of visceral adipose tissue and its growth is independently correlated with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular risk. The objective of the study was to evaluate the lifestyle and visceral adiposity index as possible cardiometabolic risk factors in patients with diabetes, prediabetes, and in the general population. Methods. The study was epidemiological, transversal, noninterventional, and was performed by analyzing 300 subjects, divided into three groups: group 1 (100 patients with type 2 diabetes, group 2 (100 pre-diabetic patients, and group 3 (control consisting of 100 individuals randomly recruited without diabetes. Results. The accumulation of cardiovascular risk factors results is an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. We found statistically significant differences between the three groups in terms of BMI, CT, VAI, CT, HDL-c and LDL-c values, which were higher in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM than in prediabetics or in the general population, which also coincided with higher cardiovascular risk in these patients. Conclusions. We emphasize the importance of both early cardiovascular risk assessment and the importance of controlling cardiovascular risk factors, both by non-pharmacological methods, and by associating early drug therapy when necessary.

  11. [Application of occupational hazard risk index model in occupational health risk assessment in a decorative coating manufacturing enterprises].

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, P L; Zhao, C X; Dong, Q Y; Hao, S B; Xu, P; Zhang, J; Li, J G

    2018-01-20

    Objective: To evaluate the occupational health risk of decorative coating manufacturing enterprises and to explore the applicability of occupational hazard risk index model in the health risk assessment, so as to provide basis for the health management of enterprises. Methods: A decorative coating manufacturing enterprise in Hebei Province was chosen as research object, following the types of occupational hazards and contact patterns, the occupational hazard risk index model was used to evaluate occupational health risk factors of occupational hazards in the key positions of the decorative coating manufacturing enterprise, and measured with workplace test results and occupational health examination. Results: The positions of oily painters, water-borne painters, filling workers and packers who contacted noise were moderate harm. And positions of color workers who contacted chromic acid salts, oily painters who contacted butyl acetate were mild harm. Other positions were harmless. The abnormal rate of contacting noise in physical examination results was 6.25%, and the abnormality was not checked by other risk factors. Conclusion: The occupational hazard risk index model can be used in the occupational health risk assessment of decorative coating manufacturing enterprises, and noise was the key harzard among occupational harzards in this enterprise.

  12. Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Peduzzi

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI, which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.

  13. Atherogenic index and coronarian risk – comparative assessment regarding the particularities of chronic autoimmune thyroiditis presence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seceleanu Mihaela

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Assessment of autoimmune cause hypothyroidism and dyslipidemia involvement in the apparition of major vascular complications. Methods: A total of 152 patients were investigated appreciating in comparison to a healthy control lot the hormone serum level, the presence of antimicrosomal thyroid antibodies and the serum levels of lipids. Atherogenic index and coronarian risk were calculated and correlated with the incidence of coronarian and cerebral vascular accidents. Results: Among the patients with goiter it was noted a high incidence of a subclinical hypothyroidism (31,58%. Thyroid autoimmunity was involved in 94,4% of the patients with clinical hypothyroidism, in 93,7 % with subclinical hypothyroidism and 100% in the patients with thyrotoxicosis. Low serum level of HDL-cholesterol was identified in 66,6% of patients with clinical hypothyroidism and 64,5% patients with subclinical hypothyroidism. The assessment of atherogenic index and coronarian risk was significantly higher (p<0,01 in patients with hypothyroidism in comparison to healthy control subjects. The incidence of vascular accidents was significantly higher (p<0,01 among the hypothyroid patients ( 19,7%/ 10,8%, of masculine gender (12,7% where the main cause of hypothyroidism was autoimmunity. Conclusions: The atherogenic index and coronarian risk were higher in patients with hypothyroidism associated to thyroid autoimmunity resulting in an increased probability in producing vascular accidents

  14. Comparison between frailty index of deficit accumulation and fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in prediction of risk of fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guowei; Thabane, Lehana; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Adachi, Jonathan D

    2015-08-01

    A frailty index (FI) of deficit accumulation could quantify and predict the risk of fractures based on the degree of frailty in the elderly. We aimed to compare the predictive powers between the FI and the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) in predicting risk of major osteoporotic fracture (hip, upper arm or shoulder, spine, or wrist) and hip fracture, using the data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) 3-year Hamilton cohort. There were 3985 women included in the study, with the mean age of 69.4 years (standard deviation [SD] = 8.89). During the follow-up, there were 149 (3.98%) incident major osteoporotic fractures and 18 (0.48%) hip fractures reported. The FRAX and FI were significantly related to each other. Both FRAX and FI significantly predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.03 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.05) and 1.02 (95% CI: 1.01-1.04) for per-0.01 increment for the FRAX and FI respectively. The HRs were 1.37 (95% CI: 1.19-1.58) and 1.26 (95% CI: 1.12-1.42) for an increase of per-0.10 (approximately one SD) in the FRAX and FI respectively. Similar discriminative ability of the models was found: c-index = 0.62 for the FRAX and c-index = 0.61 for the FI. When cut-points were chosen to trichotomize participants into low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups, a significant increase in fracture risk was found in the high-risk group (HR = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.36-3.07) but not in the medium-risk group (HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 0.82-1.84) compared with the low-risk women for the FI, while for FRAX the medium-risk (HR = 2.00, 95% CI: 1.09-3.68) and high-risk groups (HR = 2.61, 95% CI: 1.48-4.58) predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture significantly only when survival time exceeded 18months (550 days). Similar findings were observed for hip fracture and in sensitivity analyses. In conclusion, the FI is comparable with FRAX in the prediction of risk of future fractures, indicating that

  15. Environmental risk index: A tool to assess the safety of dams for leachate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colomer Mendoza, Francisco J.; Gallardo Izquierdo, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    Dams for leachate store very toxic substances that contain a large amount of organic material and, probably, heavy metals; they therefore constitute an important threat to the environment. Existing models of environmental risk assessment for landfills do not take into consideration the specific risk that leachate dams may represent for the environment. In this paper a methodology to improve the environmental safety is presented according to the parameters used in their construction and management. In order to do that, the following characteristics of the dam must be known: (1) geotechnical stability, (2) erosion of downstream slope, (3) type of sealing of the dam, (4) overtopping probability, (5) volume of leachate stored inside the dam and (6) pollution load of leachate. Once these parameters have been calculated, they are transformed by means of rating curves into homogeneous units, so as to make it possible to operate between them. From the study and analysis of these parameters an environmental risk index for a dam for leachate can be calculated. If the environmental risk index exceeds an established value then it involves a dam for leachate with high environmental risk, therefore preventive measures in its design, construction and management would be necessary

  16. Poverty Risk Index as A New Methodology for Social Inequality Distribution Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swiader, Małgorzata; Szewrański, Szymon; Kazak, Jan

    2017-10-01

    The paper presents new concept of poverty risk index measurement due to dynamics of urban development among years. The rapid urbanization could seriously surpass the capacity of the most cities, which may lead to insufficient services of their inhabitants. Consequence of this situation could be polarized, social differentiated cities with high rates of urban poverty. The measurement and analysis of urban poverty phenomenon requires the dedicated tools and techniques. The data based assessment could allow planners and public policy makers to develop more socially integrated cities. This paper presents analysis of urban poverty phenomenon in Wrocław city (Poland) during period 2010-2012. This analysis was conducted for ten Social Assistance Terrain Units (SATU) delineated at the city area. Our primary study objective concerns the proposal and calculation of poverty risk index based on diagnostic features, which represent the most common causes of social benefits granting, as: number of single households granted permanent benefits, number of people in families granted permanent benefits, number of people in families granted temporary benefits due to unemployment, number of people in families granted temporary benefits due to disability, number of people in families granted meals for children. The calculation was conducted by using the theory of development pattern - Hellwig’s economic development measure. The analysis of poverty risk index showed that commonly the central and south-eastern part of the city is characterized by the highest poverty risk index. The obtained results of the inequalities spatial distribution relate to European and American patterns of poverty concentration in urban structures.

  17. Assessing heat-related health risk in Europe via the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Napoli, Claudia; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.

    2018-03-01

    In this work, the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator in Europe is demonstrated. The UTCI is a bioclimate index that uses a multi-node human heat balance model to represent the heat stress induced by meteorological conditions to the human body. Using 38 years of meteorological reanalysis data, UTCI maps were computed to assess the thermal bioclimate of Europe for the summer season. Patterns of heat stress conditions and non-thermal stress regions are identified across Europe. An increase in heat stress up to 1 °C is observed during recent decades. Correlation with mortality data from 17 European countries revealed that the relationship between the UTCI and death counts depends on the bioclimate of the country, and death counts increase in conditions of moderate and strong stress, i.e., when UTCI is above 26 and 32 °C. The UTCI's ability to represent mortality patterns is demonstrated for the 2003 European heatwave. These findings confirm the importance of UTCI as a bioclimatic index that is able to both capture the thermal bioclimatic variability of Europe, and relate such variability with the effects it has on human health.

  18. Determination of the health of Lunyangwa wetland using Wetland Classification and Risk Assessment Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanda, Elijah M. M.; Mamba, Bhekie B.; Msagati, Titus A. M.; Msilimba, Golden

    2016-04-01

    Wetlands are major sources of various ecological goods and services including storage and distribution of water in space and time which help in ensuring the availability of surface and groundwater throughout the year. However, there still remains a poor understanding of the range of values of water quality parameters that occur in wetlands either in its impacted state or under natural conditions. It was thus imperative to determine the health of Lunyangwa wetland in Mzuzu City in Malawi in order to classify and determine its state. This study used the Escom's Wetland Classification and Risk Assessment Index Field Guide to determine the overall characteristics of Lunyangwa wetland and to calculate its combined Wetland Index Score. Data on site information, field measurements (i.e. EC, pH, temperature and DO) and physical characteristics of Lunyangwa wetland were collected from March, 2013 to February, 2014. Results indicate that Lunyangwa wetland is a largely open water zone which is dominated by free-floating plants on the water surface, beneath surface and emergent in substrate. Furthermore, the wetland can be classified as of a C ecological category (score = 60-80%), which has been moderately modified with moderate risks of the losses and changes occurring in the natural habitat and biota in the wetland. It was observed that the moderate modification and risk were largely because of industrial, agricultural, urban/social catchment stressors on the wetland. This study recommends an integrated and sustainable management approach coupled with continuous monitoring and evaluation of the health of the wetland for all stakeholders in Mzuzu City. This would help to maintain the health of Lunyangwa wetland which is currently at risk of being further modified due to the identified catchment stressors.

  19. The Little Schmidy Pediatric Hospital Fall Risk Assessment Index: A diagnostic accuracy study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franck, Linda S; Gay, Caryl L; Cooper, Bruce; Ezrre, Suzanne; Murphy, Barbette; Chan, June Shu-Ling; Buick, Maureen; Meer, Carrie R

    2017-03-01

    Falls are among the most common potentially preventable adverse events. Current pediatric falls risk assessment methods have poor precision and accuracy. To evaluate an inpatient pediatric fall risk assessment index, known as the Little Schmidy, and describe characteristics of pediatric falls. Retrospective case control and descriptive study. The dataset included 114 reported falls and 151,678 Little Schmidy scores documented in medical records during the 5-year study period (2007-2011). Pediatric medical and surgical inpatient units of an academic medical center in the western United States. Pediatric hospital inpatients fall risk each day and night shift throughout the patient's hospitalization. Conditional fixed-effects logistic regressions were used to examine predictive relationships between Little Schmidy scores (at admission, highest prior to fall, and just prior to fall) and the patient's fall status (fell or not). The sensitivity and specificity of different cut-off scores were explored. Associations between Little Schmidy scores and patient and hospitalization factors were examined using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression and multilevel mixed-effects ordinal logistic regression. Little Schmidy scores were significantly associated with pediatric falls (pfall risk with sensitivity of 79% and specificity of 49%. Patients with an LS4 score ≥1 were 4 times more likely to fall before the next assessment than patients with a score of 0. LS4 scores indicative of fall risk were associated with age ≥5 years, neurological diagnosis, multiple hospitalizations, and night shift, but not with sex, length of hospital stay, or hospital unit. Of the 114 reported falls, 64% involved a male patient, nearly one third (32%) involved adolescents (13-17 years), most resulted in no (59%) or mild (36%) injury, and most (54%) were related to diagnosis or clinical characteristics. For 60% of the falls, fall precautions had been implemented prior to the fall. The

  20. Feasibility Study of Land Cover Classification Based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index for Landslide Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thilanki Dahigamuwa

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Unfavorable land cover leads to excessive damage from landslides and other natural hazards, whereas the presence of vegetation is expected to mitigate rainfall-induced landslide potential. Hence, unexpected and rapid changes in land cover due to deforestation would be detrimental in landslide-prone areas. Also, vegetation cover is subject to phenological variations and therefore, timely classification of land cover is an essential step in effective evaluation of landslide hazard potential. The work presented here investigates methods that can be used for land cover classification based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, derived from up-to-date satellite images, and the feasibility of application in landslide risk prediction. A major benefit of this method would be the eventual ability to employ NDVI as a stand-alone parameter for accurate assessment of the impact of land cover in landslide hazard evaluation. An added benefit would be the timely detection of undesirable practices such as deforestation using satellite imagery. A landslide-prone region in Oregon, USA is used as a model for the application of the classification method. Five selected classification techniques—k-nearest neighbor, Gaussian support vector machine (GSVM, artificial neural network, decision tree and quadratic discriminant analysis support the viability of the NDVI-based land cover classification. Finally, its application in landslide risk evaluation is demonstrated.

  1. Business risk assessment of the companies on the Mexican Stock Exchange’s sustainable index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Antonio Morales Castro

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available (Received: 2014/10/27 - Accepted: 2014/12/15This work evaluated the business risk change of 20 companies included on the sustainable index of the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV. The unlevered beta coefficient was used for this analysis. Two periods were compared: the one before, and the one after including the companies on the index. For each of the 20 companies it was used financial information, stocks closing prices and the stock market index value, over a period of 234 weeks. Then, considering the two periods, the statistical difference between the unlevered beta coefficient averages was calculated. Finally, a hypothesis proof was made to evaluate the business risk change. It was found that for 12 out of the 20 companies, the unlevered beta coefficient suffered a reduction. The findings suggest that it is not enough for the companies to certify as sustainable in order to reduce its business risk.

  2. Cumulative risk assessment for plasticizer-contaminated food using the hazard index approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, J.W.; Yan, B.R.; Chang, M.H.; Tseng, S.H.; Kao, Y.M.; Chen, J.C.; Lee, C.C.

    2014-01-01

    Phthalates strongly and adversely affect reproduction, development and liver function. We did a cumulative risk assessment for simultaneous exposure to nine phthalates using the hazard index (HI) and the levels of nine phthalates in 1200 foodstuff samples. DEHP (di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate) present the highest level (mean: 0.443 mg/kg) in 1200 samples, and the highest average daily dose (ADD) was found in DEHP, ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) posed the highest risk potential of all the phthalates. In seven phthalates, the 95th percentiles of the ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) in 0–6-yr-old children accounted for 91% (79–107%) of the tolerable daily intake, and the 95th percentiles of the HIs for the anti-androgenic effects of five phthalates in 0–3-yr-old children and 4–6-yr-old girls were >1. We conclude that the health of younger Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of phthalate-contaminated foods. - Graphical abstract: In seven phthalates, the 95th percentile of the average daily dose (ADD) for ΣDBP (i + n) (the sum of dibutyl phthalate [DBP] isomers [DnBP + DiBP]) in 0–3-yr-old male (0–3 M) and female (0–3 F) children accounted for 97% and 84% of TDIs, respectively. For 4–6-yr-old and 7–12-yr-old males and 7–12-yr-old females, ADDs for ΣDBP (i + n) accounted for 79%, 72%, and 65% of TDIs, respectively. - Highlights: • A cumulative risk assessment of PAEs was used in a severe plasticizer-contaminated food episode. • ΣDBP (i + n) posed the highest risk potential of all the dietary phthalates. • Females 4–6 yr old had the highest risk for anti-androgenic effects. • Beverages, milk and dairy products were the major contributors to average daily dose of phthalate esters. - The health of young Taiwanese may be adversely affected by overexposure of plasticizer-contaminated food

  3. Assessing systematic risk in the S&P500 index between 2000 and 2011: A Bayesian nonparametric approach

    OpenAIRE

    Rodríguez, Abel; Wang, Ziwei; Kottas, Athanasios

    2017-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian nonparametric model to assess the effect of systematic risks on multiple financial markets, and apply it to understand the behavior of the S&P500 sector indexes between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2011. More than prediction, our main goal is to understand the evolution of systematic and idiosyncratic risks in the U.S. economy over this particular time period, leading to novel sector-specific risk indexes. To accomplish this goal, we model the appearance of extreme l...

  4. Flood risk index pattern assessment: case study in Langat River Basin

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study focus on the creation of flood risk index in the study area based on secondary data derived from the Department of Drainage and Irrigation (DID) since 1982-2012. Based on the result, it shows that the water level is the best variable to be taken for the purposed of flood warning alert system as the result for ...

  5. "RISK ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPING DISTAL UPPER EXTREMITY DISORDERS BY STRAIN INDEX METHOD IN AN ASSEMBLING ELECTRONIC INDUSTRY"

    OpenAIRE

    M. Pourmahabadian; J.N. Saraji; M. Aghabeighi H. Saddeghi-Naeeni

    2005-01-01

    The strain index (SI) is a substantial advancement and has been devised to analyze ergonomic risks for distal upper extremity (DUE) disorders. This semi-quantitative tool allows for the measurement of hazards and does not require unduly lengthy training to begin to use it accurately. Uses of the strain index include analysis of a current job to assess whether it is safe or hazardous, quantification of the risks, and assistance in the initial design of a job or in the redesign of a job. The ai...

  6. Creating a spatially-explicit index: a method for assessing the global wildfire-water risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinne, François-Nicolas; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike; Miller, Carol; Bladon, Kevin D.

    2017-04-01

    The wildfire-water risk (WWR) has been defined as the potential for wildfires to adversely affect water resources that are important for downstream ecosystems and human water needs for adequate water quantity and quality, therefore compromising the security of their water supply. While tools and methods are numerous for watershed-scale risk analysis, the development of a toolbox for the large-scale evaluation of the wildfire risk to water security has only started recently. In order to provide managers and policy-makers with an adequate tool, we implemented a method for the spatial analysis of the global WWR based on the Driving forces-Pressures-States-Impacts-Responses (DPSIR) framework. This framework relies on the cause-and-effect relationships existing between the five categories of the DPSIR chain. As this approach heavily relies on data, we gathered an extensive set of spatial indicators relevant to fire-induced hydrological hazards and water consumption patterns by human and natural communities. When appropriate, we applied a hydrological routing function to our indicators in order to simulate downstream accumulation of potentially harmful material. Each indicator was then assigned a DPSIR category. We collapsed the information in each category using a principal component analysis in order to extract the most relevant pixel-based information provided by each spatial indicator. Finally, we compiled our five categories using an additive indexation process to produce a spatially-explicit index of the WWR. A thorough sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to understand the relationship between the final risk values and the spatial pattern of each category used during the indexation. For comparison purposes, we aggregated index scores by global hydrological regions, or hydrobelts, to get a sense of regional DPSIR specificities. This rather simple method does not necessitate the use of complex physical models and provides a scalable and efficient tool

  7. Cumulative risk assessment of phthalate exposure of Danish children and adolescents using the hazard index approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søeborg, T; Frederiksen, H; Andersson, Anna-Maria

    2012-01-01

    Human risk assessment of chemicals is traditionally presented as the ratio between the actual level of exposure and an acceptable level of exposure, with the acceptable level of exposure most often being estimated by appropriate authorities. This approach is generally sound when assessing the risk...... of individual chemicals. However, several chemicals may concurrently target the same receptor, work through the same mechanism or in other ways induce the same effect(s) in the body. In these cases, cumulative risk assessment should be applied. The present study uses biomonitoring data from 129 Danish children...... and adolescents and resulting estimated daily intakes of four different phthalates. These daily intake estimates are used for a cumulative risk assessment with anti-androgenic effects as the endpoint using Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) values determined by the European Food Safety Authorities (EFSA) or Reference...

  8. Cumulative Mass and NIOSH Variable Lifting Index Method for Risk Assessment: Possible Relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stucchi, Giulia; Battevi, Natale; Pandolfi, Monica; Galinotti, Luca; Iodice, Simona; Favero, Chiara

    2018-02-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to explore whether the Variable Lifting Index (VLI) can be corrected for cumulative mass and thus test its efficacy in predicting the risk of low-back pain (LBP). Background A validation study of the VLI method was published in this journal reporting promising results. Although several studies highlighted a positive correlation between cumulative load and LBP, cumulative mass has never been considered in any of the studies investigating the relationship between manual material handling and LBP. Method Both VLI and cumulative mass were calculated for 2,374 exposed subjects using a systematic approach. Due to high variability of cumulative mass values, a stratification within VLI categories was employed. Dummy variables (1-4) were assigned to each class and used as a multiplier factor for the VLI, resulting in a new index (VLI_CMM). Data on LBP were collected by occupational physicians at the study sites. Logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of acute LBP within levels of risk exposure when compared with a control group formed by 1,028 unexposed subjects. Results Data showed greatly variable values of cumulative mass across all VLI classes. The potential effect of cumulative mass on damage emerged as not significant ( p value = .6526). Conclusion When comparing VLI_CMM with raw VLI, the former failed to prove itself as a better predictor of LBP risk. Application To recognize cumulative mass as a modifier, especially for lumbar degenerative spine diseases, authors of future studies should investigate potential association between the VLI and other damage variables.

  9. Environmental risk assessment of registered insecticides in Iran using Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Moinoddini

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, pesticides have been used extensively, in order to control pests and plant diseases, but negative impacts of pesticides caused several environmental problems and put human health in danger. In order to decrease environmental hazards of pesticide, risk of pesticide application should be measured briefly and precisely. In this study environmental impacts of registered insecticides in Iran which applied in 2001-2002, 2003-2004, 2004-2005, are considered using environmental impact quotient (EIQ index. Results showed that among considered insecticides, Imidacloprid, Fipronil and Tiodicarb, potentially (EIQ were the most hazardous insecticides, respectively. Taking rate of application and active ingredient of insecticide in to account, environmental impact (practical toxicity per cultivated hectare (EIQ Field of each provinces were investigated. In this regard, among different province of Iran, Kerman, Mazandaran and Golestan were in danger more than the others, respectively. Besides, considering the amount of agricultural production in provinces, environmental impact per ton of production were calculated for each provinces which three northern provinces of Mazandaran, Golestan and Guilan, respectively endure the most environmental impact per ton of production. Eventually based on environmental impact quotient, results demonstrated that majority of environmental impacts of insecticide in Iran were due to inadequate knowledge and also overuse of a few number of insecticides. Therefore, by improving knowledge about environmental impact of pesticides and also developing environmental friendly and ecological based methods, negative environmental impacts of insecticides will be reduced significantly.

  10. "RISK ASSESSMENT OF DEVELOPING DISTAL UPPER EXTREMITY DISORDERS BY STRAIN INDEX METHOD IN AN ASSEMBLING ELECTRONIC INDUSTRY"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pourmahabadian

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available The strain index (SI is a substantial advancement and has been devised to analyze ergonomic risks for distal upper extremity (DUE disorders. This semi-quantitative tool allows for the measurement of hazards and does not require unduly lengthy training to begin to use it accurately. Uses of the strain index include analysis of a current job to assess whether it is safe or hazardous, quantification of the risks, and assistance in the initial design of a job or in the redesign of a job. The aim of this study was to assess and analyze risk of developing DUE disorders in different jobs as well as hazard classification in an assembling electronic industry through SI method. Also, DUE disorders prevalence, work-related absenteeism and turnover extracted from SI results were compared and assessed by those obtained by Nordic musculoskeletal questionnaire (NMQ. The findings of this study showed that more than 50% of investigated jobs are categorized as "hazardous" and there is a significant difference between SI mean in hazardous and safe jobs (P < 0.0001. In addition, significant difference was found between prevalence of DUE disorders in "safe" and "hazardous" jobs (P < 0.049. But, no significant difference (P = 0.3 was obtained between mean absenteeism in "safe" and hazardous jobs. Also, no significant difference statistically was found between turnover in "safe" and hazardous jobs (X2 = 0.133, P = 1 and high prevalence of DUE disorders is due to low turnover rate of workers.

  11. Climate risk index for Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mysiak, Jaroslav; Torresan, Silvia; Bosello, Francesco; Mistry, Malcolm; Amadio, Mattia; Marzi, Sepehr; Furlan, Elisa; Sperotto, Anna

    2018-06-01

    We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  12. Assessing a new hip index as a risk predictor for diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Sen; Zheng, Yi; Chen, Xiaoping

    2017-09-30

    Recently, a new anthropometric parameter (a new hip index [HI]) was developed, and the HI shows a U-shaped relationship to mortality in the USA population. It is well known that there is an inverse relationship between hip circumference (HC) and the risk of diabetes mellitus. Accordingly, the study sought to investigate whether HI could predict future diabetes mellitus, as compared with HC and the waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), in a general Chinese population. In 2007, we carried out a health examination of 687 participants (mean age 48.1 ± 6.2 years, male 58.1%). Development of diabetes mellitus by the 2007 examination was studied in relation to data from a baseline health examination carried out in 1992. During the follow up, 74 participants were diagnosed with diabetes mellitus. Across the quintiles of baseline HI, the incidence rates of diabetes mellitus were 12.4, 12.4, 9.9, 7.8 and 11.3% in quintile (Q)1, Q2, Q3, Q4 and Q5, respectively (P = 0.698). With the lowest quintile (Q1) as reference, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that HI was not associated with diabetes mellitus. In contrast, HC and WHR could predict future diabetes mellitus. Furthermore, WHR had the best discriminatory power for diabetes mellitus (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.691, 95% confidence interval 0.621-0.761), followed by HC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.623, 95% confidence interval 0.558-0.689) and HI (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.464, 95% confidence interval 0.396-0.531). Compared with HC and WHR, HI was not an independent risk factor for diabetes mellitus in the Chinese population. More studies are required to delineate the limits of the utility of HI. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Diabetes Investigation published by Asian Association for the Study of Diabetes (AASD) and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  13. Development of a New Fall Risk Assessment Index for Older Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minoru Yamada, RPT, PhD

    2012-09-01

    Conclusion: We have demonstrated that the new index is a reliable indicator for falls in elderly people who have higher levels of functional capacity. Our data suggest that a score of more than 1 point by the new index can predict falls in robust elderly people.

  14. Automated Assessment of Existing Patient's Revised Cardiac Risk Index Using Algorithmic Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofer, Ira S; Cheng, Drew; Grogan, Tristan; Fujimoto, Yohei; Yamada, Takashige; Beck, Lauren; Cannesson, Maxime; Mahajan, Aman

    2018-05-25

    Previous work in the field of medical informatics has shown that rules-based algorithms can be created to identify patients with various medical conditions; however, these techniques have not been compared to actual clinician notes nor has the ability to predict complications been tested. We hypothesize that a rules-based algorithm can successfully identify patients with the diseases in the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI). Patients undergoing surgery at the University of California, Los Angeles Health System between April 1, 2013 and July 1, 2016 and who had at least 2 previous office visits were included. For each disease in the RCRI except renal failure-congestive heart failure, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus-diagnosis algorithms were created based on diagnostic and standard clinical treatment criteria. For each disease state, the prevalence of the disease as determined by the algorithm, International Classification of Disease (ICD) code, and anesthesiologist's preoperative note were determined. Additionally, 400 American Society of Anesthesiologists classes III and IV cases were randomly chosen for manual review by an anesthesiologist. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were determined using the manual review as a gold standard. Last, the ability of the RCRI as calculated by each of the methods to predict in-hospital mortality was determined, and the time necessary to run the algorithms was calculated. A total of 64,151 patients met inclusion criteria for the study. In general, the incidence of definite or likely disease determined by the algorithms was higher than that detected by the anesthesiologist. Additionally, in all disease states, the prevalence of disease was always lowest for the ICD codes, followed by the preoperative note, followed by the algorithms. In the subset of patients for whom the

  15. [Study on building index system of risk assessment of post-marketing Chinese patent medicine based on AHP-fuzzy neural network].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yuanyuan; Xie, Yanming; Fu, Yingkun

    2011-10-01

    Currently massive researches have been launched about the safety, efficiency and economy of post-marketing Chinese patent medicine (CPM) proprietary Chinese medicine, but it was lack of a comprehensive interpretation. Establishing the risk evaluation index system and risk assessment model of CPM is the key to solve drug safety problems and protect people's health. The clinical risk factors of CPM exist similarities with the Western medicine, can draw lessons from foreign experience, but also have itself multi-factor multivariate multi-level complex features. Drug safety risk assessment for the uncertainty and complexity, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to empower the index weights, AHP-based fuzzy neural network to build post-marketing CPM risk evaluation index system and risk assessment model and constantly improving the application of traditional Chinese medicine characteristic is accord with the road and feasible beneficial exploration.

  16. Applying the Flood Vulnerability Index as a Knowledge base for flood risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balica, S-F.

    2012-01-01

    Floods are one of the most common and widely distributed natural risks to life and property worldwide. An important part of modern flood risk management is to evaluate vulnerability to floods. This evaluation can be done only by using a parametric approach. Worldwide there is a need to enhance our

  17. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  18. Prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato in Ixodes ricinus ticks and assessment of entomological risk index at localities in Belgrade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krstić Milena

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The first case of human Lyme borreliosis (LB in Serbia was recorded in 1987. The number of reported LB cases has increased in the past decade. The aim of this study was to estimate the density of Ixodes ricinus (I. ricinus ticks, the prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (B. burgdorferi in them, and entomological risk index (ERI at 19 Belgrade localities which were grouped into three categories (forests, parkforests, parks. The values of ERI were compared with the number of tick bites in humans. Methods. Ticks were collected monthly by using the flag hours method and the infection rate was determined by using dark field microscopy. The ERI value was calculated for each locality where the ticks were collected. The related data about tick bites was obtained from the patient protocol of the Institute of Epidemiology, Military Medical Academy, Belgrade. Results. The total number of collected ticks, the number of nymphs and the infection rates of the nymphs were significantly higher in forests (p < 0.05 than park-forests and parks. Statistically, the ERI value was significantly higher in forests than parks of Belgrade (χ2 = 7.78, p < 0.01. In March and July, the ERI value was also significantly higher in forests, than park-forests (p < 0.01 and parks (p < 0.01. May was the month with the highest ERI value in each ecological category (forests p < 0.05; park-forests p < 0.01; parks p < 0.001. However, the number of tick bites in humans did not correlate with ERI values. Conclusion. The obtained results indicate that the risk of tick bite and human exposure to B. burgdorferi sensu lato is present at all selected localities in Belgrade. For a more comprehensive Lyme disease risk assessment the method of entomological risk index assessment should be combined with other methods, taking into consideration all tick stages and the behaviour and habits of people who may get infected B. burgdorferi sensu lato.

  19. An index-based method to assess risks of climate-related hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satta, Alessio; Snoussi, Maria; Puddu, Manuela; Flayou, Latifa; Hout, Radouane

    2016-06-01

    The regional risk assessment carried out within the ClimVar & ICZM Project identified the coastal zone of Tetouan as a hotspot of the Mediterranean Moroccan coast and so it was chosen for the application of the Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS). The local scale approach provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management by exploring the effects and the extensions of the hazards and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables in order to identify areas where the risk is relatively high. The coast of Tetouan is one of the coastal areas that have been most rapidly and densely urbanized in Morocco and it is characterized by an erosive shoreline. Local authorities are facing the complex task of balancing development and managing coastal risks, especially coastal erosion and flooding, and then be prepared to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The first phase of the application of the CRI-LS methodology to Tetouan consisted of defining the coastal hazard zone, which results from the overlaying of the erosion hazard zone and the flooding hazard zone. Nineteen variables were chosen to describe the Hazards, Vulnerability and Exposure factors. The scores corresponding to each variable were calculated and the weights assigned through an expert judgement elicitation. The resulting values are hosted in a geographic information system (GIS) platform that enables the individual variables and aggregated risk scores to be color-coded and mapped across the coastal hazard zone. The results indicated that 10% and 27% of investigated littoral fall under respectively very high and high vulnerability because of combination of high erosion rates with high capital land use. The risk map showed that some areas, especially the flood plains of Restinga, Smir and Martil-Alila, with distances over 5 km from the coast, are characterized by high levels of risk due to the low topography of the flood plains and to the high values of exposure

  20. Use of Segregation Indices, Townsend Index, and Air Toxics Data to Assess Lifetime Cancer Risk Disparities in Metropolitan Charleston, South Carolina, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LaShanta J. Rice

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies have demonstrated a relationship between segregation and level of education, occupational opportunities, and risk behaviors, yet a paucity of research has elucidated the association between racial residential segregation, socioeconomic deprivation, and lifetime cancer risk. Objectives: We examined estimated lifetime cancer risk from air toxics by racial composition, segregation, and deprivation in census tracts in Metropolitan Charleston. Methods: Segregation indices were used to measure the distribution of groups of people from different races within neighborhoods. The Townsend Index was used to measure economic deprivation in the study area. Poisson multivariate regressions were applied to assess the association of lifetime cancer risk with segregation indices and Townsend Index along with several sociodemographic measures. Results: Lifetime cancer risk from all pollution sources was 28 persons/million for half of the census tracts in Metropolitan Charleston. Isolation Index and Townsend Index both showed significant correlation with lifetime cancer risk from different sources. This significance still holds after adjusting for other sociodemographic measures in a Poisson regression, and these two indices have stronger effect on lifetime cancer risk compared to the effects of sociodemographic measures. Conclusions: We found that material deprivation, measured by the Townsend Index and segregation measured by the Isolation index, introduced high impact on lifetime cancer risk by air toxics at the census tract level.

  1. A Modified Soil Quality Index to Assess the Influence of Soil Degradation Processes on Desertification Risk: The Apulia Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria Ancona

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Apulia is one of the most prone Italian regions to soil alteration phenomena, due to geographical and climatic conditions and also to human activities’ impact. In this study, in order to investigate regional soil degradation processes, following the “European Directive for Soil Protection”, the ESA’s method has been adopted. It is based on the use of an indicator’s set to assess the desertification risk. This approach simplifies the diagnosis and monitoring of soil degradation processes, defining their status and trend. Special attention has been given to Soil Quality Index (SQI determined by six predisposing indicators (parent material, soil texture, rock fragment, soil depth, drainage and slope grade. The integration in the SQI calculation of two additional soil parameters (organic matter content and soil salinity has been considered particularly significant. In fact, through the evaluation of a so “modified SQI” and the Apulia land use too, it could be possible to assess the role of agriculture management on soil degradation processes, which predisposing regional area to desertification threat. Moreover this approach provides short, but accurate, information thanks to GIS integration, which defines phenomena in detail, offering helpful planning tools.

  2. Health, safety and environment risk assessment in gas pipelines by indexing method:case of Kermanshah Sanandaj oil pipeline

    OpenAIRE

    Y. Hamidi; I. Mohamadfam; M. Motamedzadeh

    2009-01-01

    Background and AimsUsing pipelines for oil products transportation involves ranges of safety, health and environmental risks, this option however, is dominant with numerous  advantages. The purpose of this study was; relative risk assessment of abovementioned risk in Kermanshah-Sanandaj Oil Pipeline.MethodsThe method used in this study was Kent Muhlbauer method in which relative risk was assessed using third-party damage, corrosion, design, incorrect operations and leak impact  factor.Results...

  3. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  4. Development of the Informing Relatives Inventory (IRI): Assessing Index Patients' Knowledge, Motivation and Self-Efficacy Regarding the Disclosure of Hereditary Cancer Risk Information to Relatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Geus, Eveline; Aalfs, Cora M; Menko, Fred H; Sijmons, Rolf H; Verdam, Mathilde G E; de Haes, Hanneke C J M; Smets, Ellen M A

    2015-08-01

    Despite the use of genetic services, counselees do not always share hereditary cancer information with at-risk relatives. Reasons for not informing relatives may be categorized as a lack of: knowledge, motivation, and/or self-efficacy. This study aims to develop and test the psychometric properties of the Informing Relatives Inventory, a battery of instruments that intend to measure counselees' knowledge, motivation, and self-efficacy regarding the disclosure of hereditary cancer risk information to at-risk relatives. Guided by the proposed conceptual framework, existing instruments were selected and new instruments were developed. We tested the instruments' acceptability, dimensionality, reliability, and criterion-related validity in consecutive index patients visiting the Clinical Genetics department with questions regarding hereditary breast and/or ovarian cancer or colon cancer. Data of 211 index patients were included (response rate = 62%). The Informing Relatives Inventory (IRI) assesses three barriers in disclosure representing seven domains. Instruments assessing index patients' (positive) motivation and self-efficacy were acceptable and reliable and suggested good criterion-related validity. Psychometric properties of instruments assessing index patients knowledge were disputable. These items were moderately accepted by index patients and the criterion-related validity was weaker. This study presents a first conceptual framework and associated inventory (IRI) that improves insight into index patients' barriers regarding the disclosure of genetic cancer information to at-risk relatives. Instruments assessing (positive) motivation and self-efficacy proved to be reliable measurements. Measuring index patients knowledge appeared to be more challenging. Further research is necessary to ensure IRI's dimensionality and sensitivity to change.

  5. Effects of using the simplified airway risk index vs usual airway assessment on unanticipated difficult tracheal intubation - a cluster randomized trial with 64,273 participants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørskov, A K; Wetterslev, J; Rosenstock, C V

    2016-01-01

    departments vs 1.00% (302) in Non-SARI departments. Adjusted OR was 1.26 (0.68-2.34). CONCLUSIONS: Using the SARI compared with usual airway assessment we detected no statistical significant changes in unanticipated difficult- or easy intubations. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01718561.......BACKGROUND: Unanticipated difficult intubation remains a challenge in anaesthesia. The Simplified Airway Risk Index (SARI) is a multivariable risk model consisting of seven independent risk factors for difficult intubation. Our aim was to compare preoperative airway assessment based on the SARI...

  6. Statistical modeling of complex health outcomes and air pollution data: Application of air quality health indexing for asthma risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swarna Weerasinghe

    2017-03-01

    Conclusion:  This study demonstrated the importance of complex statistical model use and the consequences of lack of such modelling that accounted for data structures in public health risk assessments.

  7. Pollution potential leaching index as a tool to assess water leaching risk of arsenic in excavated urban soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jining; Kosugi, Tomoya; Riya, Shohei; Hashimoto, Yohey; Hou, Hong; Terada, Akihiko; Hosomi, Masaaki

    2018-01-01

    Leaching of hazardous trace elements from excavated urban soils during construction of cities has received considerable attention in recent years in Japan. A new concept, the pollution potential leaching index (PPLI), was applied to assess the risk of arsenic (As) leaching from excavated soils. Sequential leaching tests (SLT) with two liquid-to-solid (L/S) ratios (10 and 20Lkg -1 ) were conducted to determine the PPLI values, which represent the critical cumulative L/S ratios at which the average As concentrations in the cumulative leachates are reduced to critical values (10 or 5µgL -1 ). Two models (a logarithmic function model and an empirical two-site first-order leaching model) were compared to estimate the PPLI values. The fractionations of As before and after SLT were extracted according to a five-step sequential extraction procedure. Ten alkaline excavated soils were obtained from different construction projects in Japan. Although their total As contents were low (from 6.75 to 79.4mgkg -1 ), the As leaching was not negligible. Different L/S ratios at each step of the SLT had little influence on the cumulative As release or PPLI values. Experimentally determined PPLI values were in agreement with those from model estimations. A five-step SLT with an L/S of 10Lkg -1 at each step, combined with a logarithmic function fitting was suggested for the easy estimation of PPLI. Results of the sequential extraction procedure showed that large portions of more labile As fractions (non-specifically and specifically sorbed fractions) were removed during long-term leaching and so were small, but non-negligible, portions of strongly bound As fractions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  9. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  10. Health, safety and environment risk assessment in gas pipelines by indexing method:case of Kermanshah Sanandaj oil pipeline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Hamidi

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Background and AimsUsing pipelines for oil products transportation involves ranges of safety, health and environmental risks, this option however, is dominant with numerous  advantages. The purpose of this study was; relative risk assessment of abovementioned risk in Kermanshah-Sanandaj Oil Pipeline.MethodsThe method used in this study was Kent Muhlbauer method in which relative risk was assessed using third-party damage, corrosion, design, incorrect operations and leak impact  factor.ResultsOnce applying this method, collection of required data and performing needed experiments, scoring results showed 96 risk segments along the pipeline length in which lengths 100+860, 101+384 and 103+670 had relative risk scores 9.74, 9.82 and 9.91 respectively and therefore these segments were identified as focal risk points and priority for improvement actions.ConclusionRegarding importance of pipeline failure, inspection and regular patrol along the pipeline route, precise control of cathodic protection of pipeline and using communication technologies such as SCADA or optical fibers along the pipeline route were amongst the mostimportant control action suggested by the study.

  11. Advanced Atherogenic Index for the Assessment of Consolidated Lipid Risk in Premature Coronary Artery Disease Patients in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bansal, Sanjiv Kumar; Agarwal, Sarita; Daga, Mridul Kumar

    2016-01-01

    The high prevalence, severity, and prematurity of coronary artery disease (CAD) in the Indian population cannot be completely explained by the conventional lipid parameters and the existing lipid indices. To calculate newly defined advanced atherogenic index (AAI) in premature CAD patients and compare it between cases and controls and Correlate its values with the existing indices. One hundred and twenty premature CAD patients and an equal number of age and sex matched healthy individuals were included in this study. Lipid profile and nonconventional lipid parameters like oxidized Low density lipoprotein (OX LDL), small dense LDL (SD LDL), lipoprotein (a) apolipoprotein B (Apo B), and apolipoprotein A1 (Apo A1) were estimated and their values were used to define AAI and existing lipid indices like AI, lipid tetrad index (LTI) and lipid pentad index (LPI). The mean age of cases and controls was 37.29 + 4.50 and 36.13 + 3.53 years, respectively. The value of AAI was highly significant in cases (3461.22 ± 45.20) as compared to controls (305.84 ± 21.80). AAI has shown better statistical significance and correlation (P statistic and cumulative distribution function plot has shown that AAI can discriminate cases and controls more accurately as compared to the earlier indices. Statistically AAI appears to be a better marker of consolidated lipid risk in premature CAD patients as compared to the earlier indices.

  12. Advanced atherogenic index for the assessment of consolidated lipid risk in premature coronary artery disease patients in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjiv Kumar Bansal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The high prevalence, severity, and prematurity of coronary artery disease (CAD in the Indian population cannot be completely explained by the conventional lipid parameters and the existing lipid indices. Aims and Objectives: To calculate newly defined advanced atherogenic index (AAI in premature CAD patients and compare it between cases and controls and Correlate its values with the existing indices. Material and Methods: One hundred and twenty premature CAD patients and an equal number of age and sex matched healthy individuals were included in this study. Lipid profile and nonconventional lipid parameters like oxidized Low density lipoprotein (OX LDL, small dense LDL (SD LDL, lipoprotein (a apolipoprotein B (Apo B, and apolipoprotein A1 (Apo A1 were estimated and their values were used to define AAI and existing lipid indices like AI, lipid tetrad index (LTI and lipid pentad index (LPI. Results: The mean age of cases and controls was 37.29 + 4.50 and 36.13 + 3.53 years, respectively. The value of AAI was highly significant in cases (3461.22 ± 45.20 as compared to controls (305.84 ± 21.80. AAI has shown better statistical significance and correlation (P < 0.0001, r = 0.737 as compared to the earlier indices such as AI (P < 0.01, r = 0.52, LTI (P < 0.001, r = 0.677 and LPI (P < 0.001, r = 0.622 in premature CAD. Kolmogorov D statistic and cumulative distribution function plot has shown that AAI can discriminate cases and controls more accurately as compared to the earlier indices. Conclusion: Statistically AAI appears to be a better marker of consolidated lipid risk in premature CAD patients as compared to the earlier indices.

  13. A general index of inherent risk

    OpenAIRE

    Schnytzer, Adi; Westreich, Sara

    2009-01-01

    We extend the pioneering work of Aumann and Serrano by presenting an index of inherent riskiness of a gamble having the desirable properties of their index, while being applicable to gambles with either positive or negative expectations. As such, our index provides a measure of riskiness which is of use for both risk lovers and risk aversive gamblers, and is defined for all discrete and a large class of continuous gambles. We analyze abstract properties of our index, and present in addition t...

  14. Entomologic index for human risk of Lyme disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mather, T N; Nicholson, M C; Donnelly, E F; Matyas, B T

    1996-12-01

    An entomologic index based on density estimates of Lyme disease spirochete-infected nymphal deer ticks (lxodes scapularis) was developed to assess human risk of Lyme disease. The authors used a standardized protocol to determine tick density and infection in numerous forested sites in six Rhode Island towns. An entomologic risk index calculated for each town was compared with the number of human Lyme disease cases reported to the Rhode Island State Health Department for the same year. A strong positive relation between entomologic risk index and the Lyme disease case rate for each town suggested that the entomologic index was predictive of Lyme disease risk.

  15. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  16. Biodex Fall Risk Assessment in the Elderly With Ataxia: A New Age-Dependent Derived Index in Rehabilitation: An Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prometti, Paola; Olivares, Adriana; Gaia, Giuseppina; Bonometti, Giampietro; Comini, Laura; Scalvini, Simonetta

    2016-03-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate if the Biodex Fall Risk Assessment could provide an age-adjusted index useful for classifying patients at "risk of fall."This was a cohort study conducted on 61 chronic patients, in stable conditions, having a history of ataxia, difficulty in walking or loss of balance, and aged >64 years. These patients were coming from home to our Institute undergoing a period of in-hospital standard rehabilitation. Assessment of clinical parameters was performed at entry. Functional scales (Functional Independence Measure [FIM] for motor and cognitive function, Barthel G, Tinetti POMA), and the Biodex Fall Risk Index (FRI) were performed at entry and discharge. The Normalized FRI, obtained adjusting FRI to the reported maximum predictive FRI for the relevant age, identified 2 types of patients: those with a greater risk of fall than expected for that age, labeled Case 1 (Normalized FRI>1); and those with an equal or even lesser risk of fall than expected for that age, labeled Case 0 (Normalized FRI≤1).FRI, Normalized FRI as well as independent variables as age, sex, pathology group, FIM, BarthelG, were considered in a multiple regression analysis to predict the functional improvement (i.e., delta Tinetti Total score) after rehabilitation.Normalized FRI is useful in assessing patients at risk of falls both before and after rehabilitation. At admission, the Normalized FRI evidenced high fall risk in 46% of patients (Case 1) which decreased to 12% after rehabilitation, being greater than age-predicted in 7 patients (Case 1-1) despite the functional improvement observed after the rehabilitation treatment. Normalized FRI evidenced Case 1-1 patients as neurological, "very old" (86% in age-group 75-84 years), and with serious events at 18 to 24 months' follow-up. Normalized FRI, but not FRI, at admission was a predictor of improvement in Tinetti Total scores.The normalized FRI effectively indicated patients at higher risk of fall, in whom health

  17. Risk management of stock index futures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures is taken as a study object and a method of empirical analysis is adopted in order to verify the validity of the application of the value-at-risk (VaR) method in the risk measurement of the stock index futures market. The results suggest that under normal market conditions it is feasible to apply the VaR method in the measurement of the market risks of stock index futures. The daily VaR value of the stock index futures provides a foreseeable profit and loss of the stock ...

  18. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  19. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  20. A new clinically applicable age-specific comorbidity index for preoperative risk assessment of ovarian cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Noer, Mette Calundann; Sperling, Cecilie Dyg; Antonsen, Sofie Leisby

    2016-01-01

    Cancer Database between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2012. The study population was divided into a development cohort (n=2020) and a validation cohort (n=1975). Age-stratified multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify comorbidities significantly impacting five-year overall....... CONCLUSION: This new age-specific comorbidity index based on self-reported information is a significant predictor of overall and cancer-specific survival in ovarian cancer. It can be used to quickly identify those ovarian cancer patients requiring special attention in terms of preoperative optimization...

  1. Human Exposure Risk Assessment Due to Heavy Metals in Groundwater by Pollution Index and Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Case Study from South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vetrimurugan Elumalai

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Heavy metals in surface and groundwater were analysed and their sources were identified using multivariate statistical tools for two towns in South Africa. Human exposure risk through the drinking water pathway was also assessed. Electrical conductivity values showed that groundwater is desirable to permissible for drinking except for six locations. Concentration of aluminium, lead and nickel were above the permissible limit for drinking at all locations. Boron, cadmium, iron and manganese exceeded the limit at few locations. Heavy metal pollution index based on ten heavy metals indicated that 85% of the area had good quality water, but 15% was unsuitable. Human exposure dose through the drinking water pathway indicated no risk due to boron, nickel and zinc, moderate risk due to cadmium and lithium and high risk due to silver, copper, manganese and lead. Hazard quotients were high in all sampling locations for humans of all age groups, indicating that groundwater is unsuitable for drinking purposes. Highly polluted areas were located near the coast, close to industrial operations and at a landfill site representing human-induced pollution. Factor analysis identified the four major pollution sources as: (1 industries; (2 mining and related activities; (3 mixed sources- geogenic and anthropogenic and (4 fertilizer application.

  2. Comparison of Oncotype DX® Recurrence Score® with other risk assessment tools including the Nottingham Prognostic Index in the identification of patients with low-risk invasive breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotter, Maura Bríd; Dakin, Alex; Maguire, Aoife; Walshe, Janice M; Kennedy, M John; Dunne, Barbara; Riain, Ciarán Ó; Quinn, Cecily M

    2017-09-01

    Oncotype DX® is a gene expression assay that quantifies the risk of distant recurrence in patients with hormone receptor positive early breast cancer, publicly funded in Ireland since 2011. The aim of this study was to correlate Oncotype DX® risk groupings with traditional histopathological parameters and the results of other risk assessment tools including Recurrence Score-Pathology-Clinical (RSPC), Adjuvant Risk Index (Adj RI), Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and the Adjuvant! Online 10-year score (AO). Patients were retrospectively identified from the histopathology databases of two Irish hospitals and patient and tumour characteristics collated. Associations between categorical variables were evaluated with Pearson's chi-square test. Correlations were calculated using Spearman's correlation coefficient and concordance using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software, version 22.0.In our 300 patient cohort, Oncotype DX® classified 59.7% (n = 179) as low, 30% (n = 90) as intermediate, and 10.3% (n = 31) as high risk. Overall concordance between the RS and RSPC, Adj RI, NPI, and AO was 67.3% (n = 202), 56.3% (n = 169), 59% (n = 177), and 36.3% (n = 109), respectively. All risk assessment tools classified the majority of patients as low risk apart from the AO 10-year score, with RSPC classifying the highest number of patients as low risk. This study demonstrates that there is good correlation between the RS and scores obtained using alternative risk tools. Concordance with NPI is strong, particularly in the low-risk group. NPI, calculated from traditional clinicopathological characteristics, is a reliable alternative to Oncotype DX® in the identification of low-risk patients who may avoid adjuvant chemotherapy.

  3. A Risk Severity Index for industrial plants and sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planas, E.; Arnaldos, J.; Silvetti, B.; Vallee, Agnes; Casal, J.

    2006-01-01

    A risk index (Risk Severity Index, S) has been devised to allow the assessment of the risk level originated by a given installation or site over the affected zone. A set of threshold levels for thermal radiation, toxic concentration and overpressure, together with the probabilities and frequencies associated to critical events and their effects have been the basis for calculating the values of S. A computer tool has been designed to perform a quick calculation of the diverse Risk Severity Indexes (for a critical event, for a dangerous phenomenon, for a type of effect and for the whole installation) and to plot a map of the risk severity levels around the site. The methodology has been applied to diverse test cases and it has proved to be useful for risk assessment, for comparative studies and for land use planning

  4. The Risk Premia Embedded in Index Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Gustav; Fusari, Nicola; Todorov, Viktor

    We study the dynamic relation between market risks and risk premia using time series of index option surfaces. We find that priced left tail risk cannot be spanned by market volatility (and its components) and introduce a new tail factor. This tail factor has no incremental predictive power...... for future volatility and jump risks, beyond current and past volatility, but it critical in predicting future market equity and variance risk premia. Our findings suggest a wide wedge between the dynamics of market risks and their compensation, with the latter typically displaying a far more persistent...

  5. The Risk Premia Embedded in Index Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Gustav; Fusari, Nicola; Todorov, Viktor

    We study the dynamic relation between market risks and risk premia using time series of index option surfaces. We find that priced left tail risk cannot be spanned by market volatility (and its components) and introduce a new tail factor. This tail factor has no incremental predictive power...... for future volatility and jump risks, beyond current and past volatility, but is critical in predicting future market equity and variance risk premia. Our findings suggest a wide wedge between the dynamics of market risks and their compensation, with the latter typically displaying a far more persistent...

  6. Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI: A multidisciplinary risk index for Latin America and the Caribbean.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliano Calil

    Full Text Available As the world's population grows to a projected 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low-lying areas exposed to coastal hazards is projected to increase. Critical infrastructure and valuable assets continue to be placed in vulnerable areas, and in recent years, millions of people have been displaced by natural hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm's way. Risks related to natural hazards are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards, the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system and its exposure to such hazards. Moreover, these risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including poorly planned urban development, income inequality, and poverty. This study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (Self Organizing Maps and K-Means and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC on a comparative scale. The proposed method meets multiple objectives, including the identification of hotspots and key drivers of coastal risk, and the ability to process large-volume multidimensional and multivariate datasets, effectively reducing sixteen variables related to coastal hazards, geographic exposure, and socioeconomic vulnerability, into a single index. Our results demonstrate that in LAC, more than 500,000 people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. Hotspot locations of coastal risk, identified by the proposed Comparative Coastal Risk Index (CCRI, contain more than 300,00 people and include: El Oro, Ecuador; Sinaloa, Mexico; Usulutan, El Salvador; and Chiapas, Mexico. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only

  7. Cardiometabolic Risk Assessments by Body Mass Index z-Score or Waist-to-Height Ratio in a Multiethnic Sample of Sixth-Graders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahn, Henry S.; El ghormli, Laure; Jago, Russell; Foster, Gary D.; McMurray, Robert G.; Buse, John B.; Stadler, Diane D.; Treviño, Roberto P.; Baranowski, Tom; HEALTHY Study Group

    2014-01-01

    Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index z-score (BMIz) referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabolic risk. Among 5,482 sixth-grade students from 42 middle schools, we estimated explanatory variations (R 2) and standardized beta coefficients of BMIz or WHtR for cardiometabolic risk factors: insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), lipids, blood pressures, and glucose. For each risk outcome variable, we prepared adjusted regression models for four subpopulations stratified by sex and high versus lower fatness. For HOMA-IR, R 2 attributed to BMIz or WHtR was 19%–28% among high-fatness and 8%–13% among lower-fatness students. R 2 for lipid variables was 4%–9% among high-fatness and 2%–7% among lower-fatness students. In the lower-fatness subpopulations, the standardized coefficients for total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol and triglycerides tended to be weaker for BMIz (0.13–0.20) than for WHtR (0.17–0.28). Among high-fatness students, BMIz and WHtR correlated with blood pressures for Hispanics and whites, but not black boys (systolic) or girls (systolic and diastolic). In 11-12 year olds, assessments by WHtR can provide cardiometabolic risk estimates similar to conventional BMIz without requiring reference to a normative growth chart. PMID:25132986

  8. Cardiometabolic Risk Assessments by Body Mass Index z-Score or Waist-to-Height Ratio in a Multiethnic Sample of Sixth-Graders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry S. Kahn

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Convention defines pediatric adiposity by the body mass index z-score (BMIz referenced to normative growth charts. Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR does not depend on sex-and-age references. In the HEALTHY Study enrollment sample, we compared BMIz with WHtR for ability to identify adverse cardiometabolic risk. Among 5,482 sixth-grade students from 42 middle schools, we estimated explanatory variations (R2 and standardized beta coefficients of BMIz or WHtR for cardiometabolic risk factors: insulin resistance (HOMA-IR, lipids, blood pressures, and glucose. For each risk outcome variable, we prepared adjusted regression models for four subpopulations stratified by sex and high versus lower fatness. For HOMA-IR, R2 attributed to BMIz or WHtR was 19%–28% among high-fatness and 8%–13% among lower-fatness students. R2 for lipid variables was 4%–9% among high-fatness and 2%–7% among lower-fatness students. In the lower-fatness subpopulations, the standardized coefficients for total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol and triglycerides tended to be weaker for BMIz (0.13–0.20 than for WHtR (0.17–0.28. Among high-fatness students, BMIz and WHtR correlated with blood pressures for Hispanics and whites, but not black boys (systolic or girls (systolic and diastolic. In 11-12 year olds, assessments by WHtR can provide cardiometabolic risk estimates similar to conventional BMIz without requiring reference to a normative growth chart.

  9. A novel structural risk index for primary spontaneous pneumothorax: Ankara Numune Risk Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkas, Yucel; Peri, Neslihan Gulay; Kocer, Bulent; Kaplan, Tevfik; Alhan, Aslihan

    2017-07-01

    In this study, we aimed to reveal a novel risk index as a structural risk marker for primary spontanoeus pneumothorax using body mass index and chest height, structural risk factors for pneumothorax development. Records of 86 cases admitted between February 2014 and January 2015 with or without primary spontaneous pneumothorax were analysed retrospectively. The patients were allocated to two groups as Group I and Group II. The patients were evaluated with regard to age, gender, pneumothorax side, duration of hospital stay, treatment type, recurrence, chest height and transverse diameter on posteroanterior chest graphy and body mass index. Body mass index ratio per cm of chest height was calculated by dividing body mass index with chest height. We named this risk index ratio which is defined first as 'Ankara Numune Risk Index'. Diagnostic value of Ankara Numune Risk Index value for prediction of primary spontaneous pneumothorax development was analysed with Receiver Operating Characteristics curver. Of 86 patients, 69 (80.2%) were male and 17 (19.8%) were female. Each group was composed of 43 (50%) patients. When Receiver Operating Characteristics curve analysis was done for optimal limit value 0.74 of Ankara Numune Risk Index determined for prediction of pneumothorax development risk, area under the curve was 0.925 (95% Cl, 0.872-0.977, p pneumothorax development however it is insufficient for determining recurrence. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Taiwan.

  10. STORMTOOLS: Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malcolm L. Spaulding

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the challenges facing coastal zone managers and municipal planners is the development of an objective, quantitative assessment of the risk to structures, infrastructure, and public safety that coastal communities face from storm surge in the presence of changing climatic conditions, particularly sea level rise and coastal erosion. Here we use state of the art modeling tool (ADCIRC and STWAVE to predict storm surge and wave, combined with shoreline change maps (erosion, and damage functions to construct a Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI. Access to the state emergency data base (E-911 provides information on structure characteristics and the ability to perform analyses for individual structures. CERI has been designed as an on line Geographic Information System (GIS based tool, and hence is fully compatible with current flooding maps, including those from FEMA. The basic framework and associated GIS methods can be readily applied to any coastal area. The approach can be used by local and state planners to objectively evaluate different policy options for effectiveness and cost/benefit. In this study, CERI is applied to RI two communities; Charlestown representing a typical coastal barrier system directly exposed to ocean waves and high erosion rates, with predominantly low density single family residences and Warwick located within Narragansett Bay, with more limited wave exposure, lower erosion rates, and higher residential housing density. Results of these applications are highlighted herein.

  11. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  12. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  13. Assessment risk of osteoporosis in Chinese people: relationship among body mass index, serum lipid profiles, blood glucose, and bone mineral density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cui RT

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Rongtao Cui,1 Lin Zhou,2 Zuohong Li,2 Qing Li,2 Zhiming Qi,2 Junyong Zhang3 1Department of Orthopedic and Trauma Surgery, Surgical Research, Duisburg-Essen University Hospital, Essen, Germany; 2Department of Orthopedics, Dalian Central Hospital, Dalian, 3Department of Gastroenterology, Shandong Provincial Hospital, Jinan, People’s Republic of China Objective: The aim of our study was to investigate the relationship among age, sex, body mass index (BMI, serum lipid profiles, blood glucose (BG, and bone mineral density (BMD, making an assessment of the risk of osteoporosis.Materials and methods: A total of 1,035 male and 3,953 female healthy volunteers (aged 41–95 years were recruited by an open invitation. The basic information, including age, sex, height, weight, waistline, hipline, menstrual cycle, and medical history, were collected by a questionnaire survey and physical examination. Serum lipid profiles, BG, postprandial blood glucose, and glycosylated hemoglobin were obtained after 12 hours fasting. BMD in lumbar spine was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scanning.Results: The age-adjusted BMD in females was significantly lower than in males. With aging, greater differences of BMD distribution exist in elderly females than in males (P<0.001, and the fastigium of bone mass loss was in the age range from 51 to 55 in females and from 61 to 65 years in males. After adjustment for sex, there were significant differences in BMD among BMI-stratified groups in both males and females. The subjects with a BMI of <18.5 had a higher incidence of osteoporosis than BMI ≥18.5 in both sexes. BMD in type 2 diabetes mellitus with a BG of >7.0 mmol/L was lower than in people with BG of ≤7.0 mmol/L (P<0.001. People with serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of ≥1.56 mmol/L had a greater prevalence of osteoporosis compared with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≤1.55 mmol/L. Logistic regression with odds ratios showed that

  14. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  15. High body mass index and cancer risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benn, Marianne; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Smith, George Davey

    2016-01-01

    of follow-up (range 0-37), 8002 developed non-skin cancer, 3347 non-melanoma skin cancer, 1396 lung cancer, 637 other smoking related cancers, 1203 colon cancer, 159 kidney cancer, 1402 breast cancer, 1062 prostate cancer, and 2804 other cancers. Participants were genotyped for five genetic variants...... with a BMI ≥ 30 versus 18.5-24.9 kg/m(2). Corresponding risk of breast cancer was 20 % (0-44 %) higher in postmenopausal women. BMI was not associated with risk of colon, kidney, other smoking related cancers, prostate cancer, or other cancers. In genetic analyses, carrying 7-10 versus 0-4 BMI increasing......High body mass index (BMI) has been associated with increased risk of some cancer. Whether these reflect causal associations is unknown. We examined this issue. Using a Mendelian randomisation approach, we studied 108,812 individuals from the general population. During a median of 4.7 years...

  16. Aumann and Serrano’s economic index of risk for sums of gambles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minqiang Li

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We study Aumann and Serrano’s (2008 risk index for sums of gambles that are not dependent. If the dependent parts are similarly ordered, then the risk index of the sum is always larger than the minimum of the risk indices of the two gambles. For negative dependence, the risk index of the sum is always smaller than the maximum. The above results agree with our intuitions of risk diversification well. These result points out another attractive property of Aumann and Serrano’s risk index. These properties are potentially useful for risk assessment purposes of financial securities.

  17. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  18. An index of harm for comparing occupational risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaaf, E.; Hennig, J.; Schnadt, H.; Becker, G.

    1986-03-01

    An index of harm is presented describing the health hazards of persons occupationally exposed to ionizing radiation, for comparison with occupational risks in conventional working areas. The criterion for evaluating injuries is the remaining lifetime affected by chronic damage. The affected years of life themselves are evaluated in a scheme considering the degree of reduced ability to work. The index of harm is based on an evaluation of a data pool collected by all F.R.G. associations for social insurance against occupational accidents, which recorded all data of first compensation for accidents. The index can be taken into consideration for assessment of risks emanating from ionizing radiation, and for evaluating the radiation protection currently provided by maximum permissible limits, etc. (DG) [de

  19. Risk Assessment for CPAP Nonadherence in Adults with Newly-diagnosed Obstructive Sleep Apnea: Preliminary Testing of the Index for Nonadherence to PAP (I-NAP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawyer, Amy M.; King, Tonya S.; Hanlon, Alexandra; Richards, Kathy C.; Sweer, Leon; Rizzo, Albert; Weaver, Terri E.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Identification of risk for CPAP nonadherence prior to home treatment is an opportunity to deliver targeted, adherence interventions. Study objectives included (1) test a risk screening questionnaire to prospectively identify CPAP nonadherence risk among adults with newly-diagnosed OSA; (2) reduce the questionnaire to a minimum item set that effectively identifies 1-month CPAP nonadherence; and (3) examine the diagnostic utility of the screening index. Methods A prospective, longitudinal study at two clinical sleep centers in the U.S. included adults with newly diagnosed OSA (n=97; AHI ≥ 5 events/hr) by polysomnogram (PSG) consecutively recruited to participate. After baseline participant and OSA characteristics were collected, a risk screening questionnaire was administered immediately following CPAP titration polysomnogram. One-month objective CPAP use was collected. Results Predominantly white (87%) males (55%) and females (45%) with obesity (BMI 38.3 kg/m2; SD 9.3) and severe OSA (AHI 36.8; SD 19.7) were included. One-month CPAP use was 4.25hrs/night (SD 2.35). Nineteen questionnaire items (I-NAP) reliably identified nonadherers defined at CPAP use (Wald X2[8] =34.67, p60% (63%). Conclusion A risk screening questionnaire employed immediately after titration PSG may reliably identify CPAP nonadherers and permit the delivery of targeted interventions to prevent or reduce nonadherence. This novel approach may enhance cost-effectiveness of care and permit appropriate allocation of resources for CPAP adherence. PMID:24595715

  20. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  1. Risk assessments using the Strain Index and the TLV for HAL, Part I: Task and multi-task job exposure classifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapellusch, Jay M; Bao, Stephen S; Silverstein, Barbara A; Merryweather, Andrew S; Thiese, Mathew S; Hegmann, Kurt T; Garg, Arun

    2017-12-01

    The Strain Index (SI) and the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) Threshold Limit Value for Hand Activity Level (TLV for HAL) use different constituent variables to quantify task physical exposures. Similarly, time-weighted-average (TWA), Peak, and Typical exposure techniques to quantify physical exposure from multi-task jobs make different assumptions about each task's contribution to the whole job exposure. Thus, task and job physical exposure classifications differ depending upon which model and technique are used for quantification. This study examines exposure classification agreement, disagreement, correlation, and magnitude of classification differences between these models and techniques. Data from 710 multi-task job workers performing 3,647 tasks were analyzed using the SI and TLV for HAL models, as well as with the TWA, Typical and Peak job exposure techniques. Physical exposures were classified as low, medium, and high using each model's recommended, or a priori limits. Exposure classification agreement and disagreement between models (SI, TLV for HAL) and between job exposure techniques (TWA, Typical, Peak) were described and analyzed. Regardless of technique, the SI classified more tasks as high exposure than the TLV for HAL, and the TLV for HAL classified more tasks as low exposure. The models agreed on 48.5% of task classifications (kappa = 0.28) with 15.5% of disagreement between low and high exposure categories. Between-technique (i.e., TWA, Typical, Peak) agreement ranged from 61-93% (kappa: 0.16-0.92) depending on whether the SI or TLV for HAL was used. There was disagreement between the SI and TLV for HAL and between the TWA, Typical and Peak techniques. Disagreement creates uncertainty for job design, job analysis, risk assessments, and developing interventions. Task exposure classifications from the SI and TLV for HAL might complement each other. However, TWA, Typical, and Peak job exposure techniques all have

  2. University building safety index measurement using risk and implementation matrix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, A.; Arumsari, F.; Maryani, A.

    2018-04-01

    Many high rise building constructed in several universities in Indonesia. The high-rise building management must provide the safety planning and proper safety equipment in each part of the building. Unfortunately, most of the university in Indonesia have not been applying safety policy yet and less awareness on treating safety facilities. Several fire accidents in university showed that some significant risk should be managed by the building management. This research developed a framework for measuring the high rise building safety index in university The framework is not only assessed the risk magnitude but also designed modular building safety checklist for measuring the safety implementation level. The safety checklist has been developed for 8 types of the university rooms, i.e.: office, classroom, 4 type of laboratories, canteen, and library. University building safety index determined using risk-implementation matrix by measuring the risk magnitude and assessing the safety implementation level. Building Safety Index measurement has been applied in 4 high rise buildings in ITS Campus. The building assessment showed that the rectorate building in secure condition and chemical department building in beware condition. While the library and administration center building was in less secure condition.

  3. Expansion of the prognostic assessment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease : the updated BODE index and the ADO index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Puhan, Milo A.; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Frey, Martin; ter Riet, Gerben; Anto, Josep M.; Agusti, Alvar G.; Gomez, Federico P.; Rodriguez-Roisin, Roberto; Moons, Karel G. M.; Kessels, Alphons G.; Held, Ulrike

    2009-01-01

    Background The BODE index (including body-mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea, and exercise capacity) was an important contribution to the prognostic assessment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, no study has assessed whether the risk of mortality predicted

  4. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  5. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  6. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  7. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  8. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  9. Assessing Wheat Frost Risk with the Support of GIS: An Approach Coupling a Growing Season Meteorological Index and a Hybrid Fuzzy Neural Network Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaojie Yue

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Crop frost, one kind of agro-meteorological disaster, often causes significant loss to agriculture. Thus, evaluating the risk of wheat frost aids scientific response to such disasters, which will ultimately promote food security. Therefore, this paper aims to propose an integrated risk assessment model of wheat frost, based on meteorological data and a hybrid fuzzy neural network model, taking China as an example. With the support of a geographic information system (GIS, a comprehensive method was put forward. Firstly, threshold temperatures of wheat frost at three growth stages were proposed, referring to phenology in different wheat growing areas and the meteorological standard of Degree of Crop Frost Damage (QX/T 88-2008. Secondly, a vulnerability curve illustrating the relationship between frost hazard intensity and wheat yield loss was worked out using hybrid fuzzy neural network model. Finally, the wheat frost risk was assessed in China. Results show that our proposed threshold temperatures are more suitable than using 0 °C in revealing the spatial pattern of frost occurrence, and hybrid fuzzy neural network model can further improve the accuracy of the vulnerability curve of wheat subject to frost with limited historical hazard records. Both these advantages ensure the precision of wheat frost risk assessment. In China, frost widely distributes in 85.00% of the total winter wheat planting area, but mainly to the north of 35°N; the southern boundary of wheat frost has moved northward, potentially because of the warming climate. There is a significant trend that suggests high risk areas will enlarge and gradually expand to the south, with the risk levels increasing from a return period of 2 years to 20 years. Among all wheat frost risk levels, the regions with loss rate ranges from 35.00% to 45.00% account for the largest area proportion, ranging from 58.60% to 63.27%. We argue that for wheat and other frost-affected crops, it is

  10. Mercury, Fatty Acids Content and Lipid Quality Indexes in Muscles of Freshwater and Marine Fish on the Polish Market. Risk Assessment of Fish Consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Łuczyńska, Joanna; Paszczyk, Beata; Nowosad, Joanna; Łuczyński, Marek Jan

    2017-09-25

    Mercury content and fatty acids in muscles of Perca fluviatilis L. (European perch), Leuciscus idus L. (ide), Cyprinus carpio L. (European or common carp), Oncorhynchus mykiss Walb. (rainbow trout), Platichthys flesus L. (European flounder). and Clupea harengus L. (bream) from the Polish market were investigated. The total mercury was processed with AAS. The fatty acids were analyzed by gas chromatography. The concentration of mercury in muscles varied from 0.006 to 0.138 mg/kg and decreased as follows: perch ≈ ide > flounder > herring ≈ bream ≈ rainbow trout > carp ( p ≤ 0.05). There were only significant positive correlations between body weight and mercury content in muscle tissue of carp (r = 0.878), flounder (r = 0.925) and herring (r = 0.982) ( p ≤ 0.05). The atherogenic index (AI), thrombogenicity index (TI) and flesh-lipid quality index (FLQ) were calculated as follows 0.33-0.70 (IA), 0.16-0.31 (IT) and 13.01-33.22 (FLQ). Hypocholesterolemic (OFA) and hypercholesterolemic fatty acids (DFA) in muscles of fish ranged from 18.26 to 23.01 and from 73.91 to 78.46, respectively. In most cases, there were not significant correlations between size (body weight and total length) and fatty acids in the muscles of the examined fish ( p > 0.05). The Target Hazard Quotient (THQ) values were below 1, which shows that there is no non-carcinogenic health risk to the consumer by consuming the examined fish.

  11. Mercury, Fatty Acids Content and Lipid Quality Indexes in Muscles of Freshwater and Marine Fish on the Polish Market. Risk Assessment of Fish Consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanna Łuczyńska

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mercury content and fatty acids in muscles of Perca fluviatilis L. (European perch, Leuciscus idus L. (ide, Cyprinus carpio L. (European or common carp, Oncorhynchus mykiss Walb. (rainbow trout, Platichthys flesus L. (European flounder. and Clupea harengus L. (bream from the Polish market were investigated. The total mercury was processed with AAS. The fatty acids were analyzed by gas chromatography. The concentration of mercury in muscles varied from 0.006 to 0.138 mg/kg and decreased as follows: perch ≈ ide > flounder > herring ≈ bream ≈ rainbow trout > carp (p ≤ 0.05. There were only significant positive correlations between body weight and mercury content in muscle tissue of carp (r = 0.878, flounder (r = 0.925 and herring (r = 0.982 (p ≤ 0.05. The atherogenic index (AI, thrombogenicity index (TI and flesh-lipid quality index (FLQ were calculated as follows 0.33–0.70 (IA, 0.16–0.31 (IT and 13.01–33.22 (FLQ. Hypocholesterolemic (OFA and hypercholesterolemic fatty acids (DFA in muscles of fish ranged from 18.26 to 23.01 and from 73.91 to 78.46, respectively. In most cases, there were not significant correlations between size (body weight and total length and fatty acids in the muscles of the examined fish (p > 0.05. The Target Hazard Quotient (THQ values were below 1, which shows that there is no non-carcinogenic health risk to the consumer by consuming the examined fish.

  12. Human Exposure Risk Assessment Due to Heavy Metals in Groundwater by Pollution Index and Multivariate Statistical Methods: A Case Study from South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Vetrimurugan Elumalai; K. Brindha; Elango Lakshmanan

    2017-01-01

    Heavy metals in surface and groundwater were analysed and their sources were identified using multivariate statistical tools for two towns in South Africa. Human exposure risk through the drinking water pathway was also assessed. Electrical conductivity values showed that groundwater is desirable to permissible for drinking except for six locations. Concentration of aluminium, lead and nickel were above the permissible limit for drinking at all locations. Boron, cadmium, iron and manganese ex...

  13. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  14. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  15. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  16. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  17. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  18. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  19. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  20. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  1. Development and implementation of a business continuity management risk index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadar, Michael

    This paper will present the building blocks for developing and implementing the BCM risk index; whether it is used as a comprehensive metric for risk or preparedness. This paper introduces the concept of a business continuity management (BCM) risk index--a comprehensive metric that measures and reports the status of the primary 'intended outcome' of the BCM programme to top management. In addition to measuring the primary programme output,;the BCM risk index can be used to demonstrate the overall value of the BCM programme to executive management. This is accomplished because the BCM risk index allows quantitative measurement of current risk levels and their comparison with established risk tolerances. The BCM Risk Index can provide executive management with reports on the risk level of individual business units, departments, subsidiaries or the enterprise in a way that drives both risk management and BCM initiatives. The name 'risk index' can be misleading, however. The BCM risk index concept can also be used to measure preparedness levels. In fact, implementation at DTE Energy has resulted in calling it the 'preparedness index', which is used to measure and report preparedness levels rather than risk levels.

  2. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  3. An Investigation into the Decision Makers's Risk Attitude Index ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An Investigation into the Decision Makers's Risk Attitude Index Ranking Technique for Fuzzy Critical Path Analysis. ... Nigerian Journal of Technology ... for a benchmark problem, the decision maker's risk attitude index ranking method produces unrealistic results when the decision maker's attitude towards risk was neutral.

  4. Earthquake Disaster Risk Index for Cities: Baku, Yerevan, Tbilisi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varazanashvili, O.; Mammadli, T.; Nazaretyan, S.

    2005-01-01

    For comparative analysis of seismic risk in the capitals of the South Caucasian States - Baku, Yerevan and Tbilisi - the methodology of determination of earthquake disaster risk index (EDRI) has been used. Earthquake disaster risk indexes have been determined for considered cities. EDRI-analysis is performed, some peculiarities of main risk factors are revealed and risk portraits are made in each city of the given sample. (author)

  5. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  6. Risk assessments using the Strain Index and the TLV for HAL, Part II: Multi-task jobs and prevalence of CTS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapellusch, Jay M; Silverstein, Barbara A; Bao, Stephen S; Thiese, Mathew S; Merryweather, Andrew S; Hegmann, Kurt T; Garg, Arun

    2018-02-01

    The Strain Index (SI) and the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH) threshold limit value for hand activity level (TLV for HAL) have been shown to be associated with prevalence of distal upper-limb musculoskeletal disorders such as carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS). The SI and TLV for HAL disagree on more than half of task exposure classifications. Similarly, time-weighted average (TWA), peak, and typical exposure techniques used to quantity physical exposure from multi-task jobs have shown between-technique agreement ranging from 61% to 93%, depending upon whether the SI or TLV for HAL model was used. This study compared exposure-response relationships between each model-technique combination and prevalence of CTS. Physical exposure data from 1,834 workers (710 with multi-task jobs) were analyzed using the SI and TLV for HAL and the TWA, typical, and peak multi-task job exposure techniques. Additionally, exposure classifications from the SI and TLV for HAL were combined into a single measure and evaluated. Prevalent CTS cases were identified using symptoms and nerve-conduction studies. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to quantify exposure-response relationships between categorized (i.e., low, medium, and high) physical exposure and CTS prevalence for all model-technique combinations, and for multi-task workers, mono-task workers, and all workers combined. Except for TWA TLV for HAL, all model-technique combinations showed monotonic increases in risk of CTS with increased physical exposure. The combined-models approach showed stronger association than the SI or TLV for HAL for multi-task workers. Despite differences in exposure classifications, nearly all model-technique combinations showed exposure-response relationships with prevalence of CTS for the combined sample of mono-task and multi-task workers. Both the TLV for HAL and the SI, with the TWA or typical techniques, appear useful for epidemiological studies and surveillance

  7. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  8. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  9. Assessing youth engagement with a collaborative Index

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fursov, K.; Nefedova, A.; Thurner, T

    2016-07-01

    As a response to the proliferation of student-led protests and movements across the globe, we, as part of an international platform for young planning professionals- Urbego-, have developed the Youth Engagement Index (YEI) that assesses the involvement of young generations (ages 18-34) in urban governance. Designed to include, and be improved upon by, a collaboration with relevant actors such as local municipal governments, academia, nongovernmental youth organizations and the youth themselves, the YEI presents a unique opportunity to unveil weaknesses and opportunities for cities in terms of engaging their youth. Furthermore, the collaborative process highlights the value of having a recognized and engaged youth for future urban development and city life in general. (Author)

  10. The effect of elevated body mass index on ischemic heart disease risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordestgaard, Børge G; Palmer, Tom M; Benn, Marianne

    2012-01-01

    Adiposity, assessed as elevated body mass index (BMI), is associated with increased risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD); however, whether this is causal is unknown. We tested the hypothesis that positive observational associations between BMI and IHD are causal.......Adiposity, assessed as elevated body mass index (BMI), is associated with increased risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD); however, whether this is causal is unknown. We tested the hypothesis that positive observational associations between BMI and IHD are causal....

  11. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  12. ASSESSMENT OF WATER QUALITY INDEX FOR GROUNDWATER ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-12-31

    Dec 31, 2013 ... The advantages of an index include its ability to represent measurements of a ... Fair. Water quality is usually protected but occasionally threatened or ... Electrical Conductivity (EC) value is an index to represent the total.

  13. Dietary flavonoid intake is inversely associated with cardiovascular disease risk as assessed by body mass index and waist circumference among adults in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flavonoids are bioactive compounds that may reduce disease risk. To date, no research has examined whether flavonoid intake is related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk defined by anthropometric measures. The objective of this study was to determine whether flavonoid intake is associated with h...

  14. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  15. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  16. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  17. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  18. Development of the Informing Relatives Inventory (IRI): Assessing Index Patients' Knowledge, Motivation and Self-Efficacy Regarding the Disclosure of Hereditary Cancer Risk Information to Relatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Geus, Eveline; Aalfs, Cora M.; Menko, Fred H.; Sijmons, Rolf H.; Verdam, Mathilde G. E.; de Haes, Hanneke C. J. M.; Smets, Ellen M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the use of genetic services, counselees do not always share hereditary cancer information with at-risk relatives. Reasons for not informing relatives may be categorized as a lack of: knowledge, motivation, and/or self-efficacy. This study aims to develop and test the psychometric properties

  19. Development of the Informing Relatives Inventory (IRI) : Assessing Index Patients' Knowledge, Motivation and Self-Efficacy Regarding the Disclosure of Hereditary Cancer Risk Information to Relatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Geus, Eveline; Aalfs, Cora M.; Menko, Fred H.; Sijmons, Rolf H.; Verdam, Mathilde G. E.; de Haes, Hanneke C. J. M.; Smets, Ellen M. A.

    Despite the use of genetic services, counselees do not always share hereditary cancer information with at-risk relatives. Reasons for not informing relatives may be categorized as a lack of: knowledge, motivation, and/or self-efficacy. This study aims to develop and test the psychometric properties

  20. Development of the Informing Relatives Inventory (IRI): Assessing index patients' knowledge, motivation and self-efficacy regarding the disclosure of hereditary cancer risk information to relatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Geus, E.; Aalfs, C.M.; Menko, F.H.; Sijmons, R.H.; Verdam, M.G.E.; de Haes, H.C.J.M.; Smets, E.M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Despite the use of genetic services, counselees do not always share hereditary cancer information with at-risk relatives. Reasons for not informing relatives may be categorized as a lack of: knowledge, motivation, and/or self-efficacy. Purpose: This study aims to develop and test the

  1. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  2. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  3. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  4. Childhood body mass index and multiple sclerosis risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munger, Kassandra L; Bentzen, Joan; Laursen, Bjarne

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Obesity in late adolescence has been associated with an increased risk of multiple sclerosis (MS); however, it is not known if body size in childhood is associated with MS risk. METHODS: Using a prospective design we examined whether body mass index (BMI) at ages 7-13 years...

  5. Genetically Predicted Body Mass Index and Breast Cancer Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yan; Warren Andersen, Shaneda; Shu, Xiao-Ou

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Observational epidemiological studies have shown that high body mass index (BMI) is associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer in premenopausal women but an increased risk in postmenopausal women. It is unclear whether this association is mediated through shared genetic or enviro...

  6. Visceral adiposity index as an indicator of cardiometabolic risk in patients treated for craniopharyngioma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraù, Francesco; Spagnolo, Federica; Cotta, Oana Ruxandra; Cannavò, Laura; Alibrandi, Angela; Russo, Giuseppina Tiziana; Aversa, Tommaso; Trimarchi, Francesco; Cannavò, Salvatore

    2017-11-01

    Craniopharyngioma is associated with metabolic alterations leading to increased cardiovascular mortality. Recently, the visceral adiposity index has been proposed as a marker of visceral adipose tissue dysfunction and of the related cardiometabolic risk. The role of the visceral adiposity index has never been explored in craniopharyngioma patients. We assessed the cardiometabolic risk on the basis of the visceral adiposity index in craniopharyngioma patients. We evaluated data of 24 patients treated for craniopharyngioma in a single-centre. We investigated the relationship among patients' clinical and biochemical features, cardiovascular risk -assessed by the Framingham and the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores-, visceral adiposity index and adipose tissue dysfunction severity. Increased visceral adiposity index was found in 8 patients (33%). Adipose tissue dysfunction resulted to be severe, moderate or mild in 5, 2 and 1 cases. Increased visceral adiposity index significantly correlated with the occurrence of metabolic syndrome (p 0.027), IRI (p 0.001), triglycerides (p < 0.001), HOMA-IR (p < 0.001) and with lower ISI-Matsuda (p 0.005) and HDL-cholesterol (p < 0.001). Higher degree of adipose tissue dysfunction associated with increased insulin resistance. No gender difference was found for visceral adiposity index, adipose tissue dysfunction severity, and cardiovascular risk scores. Patients with adulthood onset craniopharyngioma showed higher Framingham risk score (p 0.004), atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease 10-year (p < 0.001) and lifetime (p 0.018) risk scores than those with childhood onset disease. Visceral adiposity index is increased in one third of our patients with craniopharyngioma, even if metabolic syndrome does not occur. Increased visceral adiposity index and adipose tissue dysfunction severity correlate with insulin sensitivity parameters, do not correlate with Framingham or atherosclerotic cardiovascular

  7. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  8. Performance of a risk index for advanced proximal colorectal neoplasia among a racially/ethnically diverse patient population (risk index for advanced proximal neoplasia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levitzky, Benjamin E; Brown, Colin C; Heeren, Timothy C; Schroy, Paul C

    2011-06-01

    Tailoring the use of screening colonoscopy based on the risk of advanced proximal neoplasia (APN) has been advocated as a strategy for reducing demand and optimizing effectiveness. A 7-point index based on age, sex, and distal findings at sigmoidoscopy has been proposed that stratifies individuals into low, intermediate, and high-risk categories. The aim of this cross-sectional analysis was to determine the validity of this index, which was originally derived and validated among mostly whites, for black and Hispanic patients. Data, including age, sex, colonoscopic findings, and pathology, were collected retrospectively from 1,481 white, 1,329 black, and 689 Hispanic asymptomatic, average-risk patients undergoing screening colonoscopy between 2000 and 2005. Cumulative scores ranging from 0 to 7 were derived for each subject and categorized as low, intermediate, or high risk. Rates of APN were assessed for each risk category after stratification by race/ethnicity. Index performance was assessed using the C-statistic and compared across the three racial groups. Rates of APN among patients categorized as low, intermediate, or high risk increased from 1.0 to 2.8 to 3.7% for whites, 1.0 to 2.2 to 4.2% for blacks, and 0.6 to 1.9 to 3.7% for Hispanics. The index performed similarly for all three groups, but showed limited ability to discriminate low from intermediate-risk patients, with C-statistic values of 0.62 for whites, 0.63 for blacks, and 0.68 for Hispanics. A risk index based on age, sex, and distal endoscopic findings has limited ability to discriminate low from intermediate-risk white, black, and Hispanic patients for APN.

  9. Enviromentally sensitive patch index of desertification risk applied to the main habitats of Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duro, A.; Piccione, V.; Ragusa, M. A.; Rapicavoli, V.; Veneziano, V.

    2017-07-01

    The authors applied the MEDALUS - Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use - procedure to the most representative sicilian habitat by extension, socio-economic and environmental importance, in order to assess the risk of desertification. Thanks to the ESPI, Environmentally Sensitive Patch Index, in this paper the authors estimate the current and future regional levels of desertification risk.

  10. An internationally generalizable risk index for mortality after one year of antiretroviral therapy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tate, Janet P.; Justice, Amy C.; Hughes, Michael D.; Bonnet, Fabrice; Reiss, Peter; Mocroft, Amanda; Nattermann, Jacob; Lampe, Fiona C.; Bucher, Heiner C.; Sterling, Timothy R.; Crane, Heidi M.; Kitahata, Mari M.; May, Margaret; Sterne, Jonathan A. C.

    2013-01-01

    Despite the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART), excess mortality continues for those with HIV infection. A comprehensive approach to risk assessment, addressing multiorgan system injury on ART, is needed. We sought to develop and validate a practical and generalizable mortality risk index for

  11. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  12. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  13. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  14. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  15. Transient stability index for online stability assessment and contingency evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribbens-Pavella, M; Murthy, P G; Horward, J L; Carpentier, J L

    1982-04-01

    An on-line methodology is proposed for assessing the robustness of a power system from the point of view of transient stability, and a scalar expression, the transient stability index, is accordingly derived. The reliability and sensitivity of this index are tested by means of simulations for a number of power system cases. The index is shown to be appropriate for online stability assessment, contingency evaluation and preventive control. 14 refs.

  16. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  17. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  18. Vector-borne disease risk indexes in spatially structured populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Velázquez-Castro

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available There are economic and physical limitations when applying prevention and control strategies for urban vector borne diseases. Consequently, there are increasing concerns and interest in designing efficient strategies and regulations that health agencies can follow in order to reduce the imminent impact of viruses like Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya. That includes fumigation, abatization, reducing the hatcheries, picking up trash, information campaigns. A basic question that arise when designing control strategies is about which and where these ones should focus. In other words, one would like to know whether preventing the contagion or decrease vector population, and in which area of the city, is more efficient. In this work, we propose risk indexes based on the idea of secondary cases from patch to patch. Thus, they take into account human mobility and indicate which patch has more chance to be a corridor for the spread of the disease and which is more vulnerable, i.e. more likely to have cases?. They can also indicate the neighborhood where hatchery control will reduce more the number of potential cases. In order to illustrate the usefulness of these indexes, we run a set of numerical simulations in a mathematical model that takes into account the urban mobility and the differences in population density among the areas of a city. If we label by i a particular neighborhood, the transmission risk index (TRi measures the potential secondary cases caused by a host in that neighborhood. The vector transmission risk index (VTRi measures the potential secondary cases caused by a vector. Finally, the vulnerability risk index (VRi measures the potential secondary cases in the neighborhood. Transmission indexes can be used to give geographical priority to some neighborhoods when applying prevention and control measures. On the other hand, the vulnerability index can be useful to implement monitoring campaigns or public health investment.

  19. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  20. Combining Body Mass Index With Measures of Central Obesity in the Assessment of Mortality in Subjects With Coronary Disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coutinho, Thais; Goel, Kashish; Corrêa de Sá, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    This study sought to assess the mortality risk of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) based ona combination of body mass index (BMI) with measures of central obesity.......This study sought to assess the mortality risk of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) based ona combination of body mass index (BMI) with measures of central obesity....

  1. [Association between fat mass index and fat-free mass index values and cardiovascular risk in adolescents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Patrícia Morais; da Silva, Fabiana Almeida; Souza Oliveira, Renata Maria; Mendes, Larissa Loures; Netto, Michele Pereira; Cândido, Ana Paula Carlos

    2016-01-01

    To describe the association between fat mass index and fat-free mass index values and factors associated with cardiovascular risk in adolescents in the city of Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais. Cross-sectional study with 403 adolescents aged 10-14 years, from public and private schools. Anthropometric, clinical, biochemical measurements were obtained, as well as self-reported time spent performing physical exercises, sedentary activities and sexual maturation stage. Regarding the nutritional status; 66.5% of the adolescents had normal weight; 19.9% were overweight and 10.2% were obese. For both genders, the fat mass index was higher in adolescents that had high serum triglycerides, body mass index and waist circumference. Adolescents that had anthropometric, clinical and biochemical characteristics considered to be of risk for the development of cardiovascular disease had higher values of fat mass index. Different methodologies for the assessment of body composition make health promotion and disease prevention more effective. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade de Pediatria de São Paulo. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  3. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  4. Assessing risk of draft survey by AHP method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guangcheng; Zhao, Kuimin; Zuo, Zhaoying; Liu, Gang; Jian, Binguo; Lin, Yan; Fan, Yukun; Wang, Fei

    2018-04-01

    The paper assesses the risks of vessel floating in the seawater for draft survey by using the analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, the paper established draft survey risk index from the view of draft reading, ballast water, fresh water, and calculation process and so on. Then the paper proposes the method to deal with risk assessment using one concrete sample.

  5. Body mass index, waist circumference, body adiposity index, and risk for type 2 diabetes in two populations in Brazil: general and Amerindian.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael de Oliveira Alvim

    Full Text Available The use of the anthropometric indices of adiposity, especially body mass index and waist circumference in the prediction of diabetes mellitus has been widely explored. Recently, a new body composition index, the body adiposity index was proposed. The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of body mass index, waist circumference, and body adiposity index in the risk assessment for type 2 diabetes mellitus.A total of 1,572 individuals from the general population of Vitoria City, Brazil and 620 Amerindians from the Aracruz Indian Reserve, Brazil were randomly selected. BMI, waist circumference, and BAI were determined according to a standard protocol. Type 2 diabetes mellitus was diagnosed by the presence of fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or by the use of antidiabetic drugs.The area under the curve was similar for all anthropometric indices tested in the Amerindian population, but with very different sensitivities or specificities. In women from the general population, the area under the curve of waist circumference was significantly higher than that of the body adiposity index. Regarding risk assessment for type 2 diabetes mellitus, the body adiposity index was a better risk predictor than body mass index and waist circumference in the Amerindian population and was the index with highest odds ratio for type 2 diabetes mellitus in men from the general population, while in women from the general population waist circumference was the best risk predictor.Body adiposity index was the best risk predictor for type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Amerindian population and men from the general population. Our data suggest that the body adiposity index is a useful tool for the risk assessment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in admixture populations.

  6. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  7. Increasing Risk Awareness: The Coastal Community Resilience Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Jody A.; Sempier, Tracie; Swann, LaDon

    2012-01-01

    As the number of people moving to the Gulf Coast increases, so does the risk of exposure to floods, hurricanes, and other storm-related events. In an effort to assist communities in preparing for future storm events, the Coastal Community Resilience Index was created. The end result is for communities to take actions to address the weaknesses they…

  8. Hedging with stock index futures: downside risk versus the variance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, F.; Nat, van der M.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper we investigate hedging a stock portfolio with stock index futures.Instead of defining the hedge ratio as the minimum variance hedge ratio, we considerseveral measures of downside risk: the semivariance according to Markowitz [ 19591 andthe various lower partial moments according to

  9. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  10. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  11. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  12. Exploring standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index for drought assessment in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miah, Md Giashuddin; Abdullah, Hasan Muhammad; Jeong, Changyoon

    2017-10-09

    Drought is a critical issue, and it has a pressing, negative impact on agriculture, ecosystems, livelihoods, food security, and sustainability. The problem has been studied globally, but its regional or even local dimension is sometimes overlooked. Local-level drought assessment is necessary for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies for that particular region. Keeping this in understanding, an attempt was made to create a detailed assessment of drought characteristics at the local scale in Bangladesh. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) is a new drought index that mainly considers the rainfall and evapotranspiration data set. Globally, SPEI has become a useful drought index, but its local scale application is not common. SPEI base (0.5° grid data) for 110 years (1901-2011) was utilized to overcome the lack of long-term climate data in Bangladesh. Available weather data (1955-2011) from Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD) were analyzed to calculate SPEI weather station using the SPEI calculator. The drivers for climate change-induced droughts were characterized by residual temperature and residual rainfall data from different BMD stations. Grid data (SPEI base ) of 26 stations of BMD were used for drought mapping. The findings revealed that the frequency and intensity of drought are higher in the northwestern part of the country which makes it vulnerable to both extreme and severe droughts. Based on the results, the SPEI-based drought intensity and frequency analyses were carried out, emphasizing Rangpur (northwest region) as a hot spot, to get an insight of drought assessment in Bangladesh. The findings of this study revealed that SPEI could be a valuable tool to understand the evolution and evaluation of the drought induced by climate change in the country. The study also justified the immediate need for drought risk reduction strategies that should lead to relevant policy formulations and agricultural innovations for developing

  13. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  14. Heuristic Model Of The Composite Quality Index Of Environmental Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabarov, A. N.; Knyaginin, A. A.; Bondarenko, D. V.; Shepet, I. P.; Korolkova, L. N.

    2017-01-01

    The goal of the paper is to present the heuristic model of the composite environmental quality index based on the integrated application of the elements of utility theory, multidimensional scaling, expert evaluation and decision-making. The composite index is synthesized in linear-quadratic form, it provides higher adequacy of the results of the assessment preferences of experts and decision-makers.

  15. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  16. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  17. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  18. The effect of financial ratios on systematic risk index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Faez

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the relationship between financial ratios and indicator of systemic risk in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The study selects 73 manufacturing companies of the Tehran Stock Exchange market over the period 2003-2010. The study first calculates the independent variables in the form of financial ratios and then the ratios affecting the systematic risk index are extracted using entropy method. The output of this stage is the introduction of five influential financial indicators as the independent variables of the study. Using t-test and Pearson correlation coefficient the rate of independent variables effect on the systematic risk index is evaluated and finally, using stepwise regression method, the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable is examined. According to results of our survey, the correlation coefficient of such indices as “the ratio of stock price to the profit of each share”, “Current ratio”, “each share profit ratio” and “the stockholders rights return ratio” have respectively the highest correlation with the systematic risk index.

  19. The c-index is not proper for the evaluation of $t$-year predicted risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanche, Paul; Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A

    2018-02-16

    We show that the widely used concordance index for time to event outcome is not proper when interest is in predicting a $t$-year risk of an event, for example 10-year mortality. In the situation with a fixed prediction horizon, the concordance index can be higher for a misspecified model than for a correctly specified model. Impropriety happens because the concordance index assesses the order of the event times and not the order of the event status at the prediction horizon. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve does not have this problem and is proper in this context.

  20. Radiation effects and risks: overview and a new risk perception index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehani, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty provides opportunities for differences in perception, and radiation risks at low level of exposures involved in few computed tomography scans fall in this category. While there is good agreement among national and international organisations on risk probability of cancer, risk perception has barely been dealt with by these organisations. Risk perception is commonly defined as the subjective judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of a risk. Severity and latency are important factors in perception. There is a need to connect all these. Leaving risk perception purely as a subjective judgement provides opportunities for people to amplifying risk. The author postulates a risk perception index as severity divided by latency that becomes determining factor for risk perception. It is hoped that this index will bring rationality in risk perception. (authors)

  1. Indexes of leading climate indicators for impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Easterling, W.E.; Kates, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    Could users of climate information for impact assessment be overlooking an important source of information in climate indicators? We argue that indexes of leading climate indicators of impacts may be usable knowledge for consumers and may provide guidance to the global climate observing community concerning the types of data and information that users need. Five classes of indexes are suggested: Climate Extremes Index (CEI) and Greenhouse Climate Response Index (GCRI) - such are already available from scientists at the US National Climatic Data Center - plus proposed indexes of Hazard Warning, Ecosystem Health, and Energy Demand and Renewable Natural Resources. We conclude that the CEI and GCRI posses several necessary attributes to become usable knowledge; the other indexes have the potential to become usable knowledge, but remain to be implemented with climate data and fully evaluated. 34 refs

  2. Sensitivity analysis of the Ohio phosphorus risk index

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Phosphorus (P) Index is a widely used tool for assessing the vulnerability of agricultural fields to P loss; yet, few of the P Indices developed in the U.S. have been evaluated for their accuracy. Sensitivity analysis is one approach that can be used prior to calibration and field-scale testing ...

  3. Overall glycaemic index and glycaemic load of habitual diet and risk of heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grau, Katrine; Tetens, Inge; Bjørnsbo, Kirsten S

    2011-01-01

    Objective To test the hypothesis that diets with high glycaemic index (GI) and glycaemic load (GL) increase the risk of heart disease. Design Overall GI and GL were assessed from 7 d diet records or diet history interviews. Setting Information on hospitalization and death due to CVD and CHD was o...

  4. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  5. Reliability and Validity of the Dutch Version of the Behavioural Status Index: A Nurse-Rated Forensic Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakhssi, Farid; de Ruiter, Corine; Bernstein, David

    2010-01-01

    The Behavioural Status Index (BEST-Index) has been introduced into Dutch forensic psychiatry to measure change in risk level of future violence. The BEST-Index is a structured observational measure that assesses aggressive behavior, degree of insight, social skills, self-care, and work and leisure skills during inpatient treatment. Thus far,…

  6. Measurement of damage in systemic vasculitis: a comparison of the Vasculitis Damage Index with the Combined Damage Assessment Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suppiah, Ravi; Flossman, Oliver; Mukhtyar, Chetan

    2011-01-01

    To compare the Vasculitis Damage Index (VDI) with the Combined Damage Assessment Index (CDA) as measures of damage from vasculitis.......To compare the Vasculitis Damage Index (VDI) with the Combined Damage Assessment Index (CDA) as measures of damage from vasculitis....

  7. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Value at Risk on Composite Price Share Index Stock Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oktaviarina, A.

    2018-01-01

    The financial servicest authority was declared Let’s Save Campaign on n commemoration of the World Savings Day that falls on this day, October 31, 2016. The activity was greeted enthusiastically by Indonesia Stock Exchange by taking out the slogan Let’s Save The Stocks. Stock is a form of investment that is expected to benefit in the future despite has risks. Value at Risk (VaR) is a method that can measure how much the risk of a financial investment. Composite Stock Price Indeks is the stock price index used by Indonesia Stock Exchange as stock volatility benchmarks in Indonesia. This study aimed to estimate Value at Risk (VaR) on closing price Composite Price Share Index Stock data on the period 20 September 2016 until 20 September 2017. Box-Pierce test results p value=0.9528 which is greater than a, that shows homoskedasticity. Value at Risk (VaR) with Variance Covariance Method is Rp.3.054.916,07 which means with 99% confindence interval someone who invests Rp.100.000.000,00 will get Rp.3.054.916,07 as a maximum loss.

  9. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  10. Healthy lifestyle index and risk of gastric adenocarcinoma in the EPIC cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckland, G; Travier, N; Huerta, J M; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H B As; Siersema, P D; Skeie, G; Weiderpass, E; Engeset, D; Ericson, U; Ohlsson, B; Agudo, A; Romieu, I; Ferrari, P; Freisling, H; Colorado-Yohar, S; Li, K; Kaaks, R; Pala, V; Cross, A J; Riboli, E; Trichopoulou, A; Lagiou, P; Bamia, C; Boutron-Ruault, M C; Fagherazzi, G; Dartois, L; May, A M; Peeters, P H; Panico, S; Johansson, M; Wallner, B; Palli, D; Key, T J; Khaw, K T; Ardanaz, E; Overvad, K; Tjønneland, A; Dorronsoro, M; Sánchez, M J; Quirós, J R; Naccarati, A; Tumino, R; Boeing, H; Gonzalez, C A

    2015-08-01

    Several modifiable lifestyle factors, including smoking, alcohol, certain dietary factors and weight are independently associated with gastric cancer (GC); however, their combined impact on GC risk is unknown. We constructed a healthy lifestyle index to investigate the joint influence of these behaviors on GC risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The analysis included 461,550 participants (662 first incident GC cases) with a mean follow-up of 11.4 years. A healthy lifestyle index was constructed, assigning 1 point for each healthy behavior related to smoking status, alcohol consumption and diet quality (represented by the Mediterranean diet) for assessing overall GC and also body mass index for cardia GC and 0 points otherwise. Risk of GC was calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models while adjusting for relevant confounders. The highest versus lowest score in the healthy lifestyle index was associated with a significant lower risk of GC, by 51% overall (HR 0.49 95% CI 0.35, 0.70), by 77% for cardia GC (HR 0.23 95% CI 0.08, 0.68) and by 47% for noncardia GC (HR 0.53 (95% CI 0.32, 0.87), p-trendshealthy lifestyle behaviors of this index. Adopting several healthy lifestyle behaviors including not smoking, limiting alcohol consumption, eating a healthy diet and maintaining a normal weight is associated with a large decreased risk of GC. © 2014 UICC.

  11. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  12. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  13. ENSO-Based Index Insurance: Approach and Peru Flood Risk Management Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, A. F.; Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Miranda, M. J.; Skees, J. R.

    2006-12-01

    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable, and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations data are inadequate to develop an index due to short time-series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here, ENSO related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the departments of Peru -- Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions (MFIs) to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods, but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many micro-enterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data is variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (a) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall; (b) the potential for clustering of payoffs; (c) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season; and (d) evidence for climate change or non-stationarity in the flood exceedance probability from the long ENSO record. Finally, prospects for

  14. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  17. Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narumiya, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  19. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  20. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  1. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  2. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  3. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  4. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  5. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  6. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  7. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  8. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  9. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  10. Creating a Flood Risk Index to Improve Community Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, K.; El Gammal, L.

    2017-12-01

    While flood risk reduction is an existent discourse and agenda in policy and insurance, vulnerabilities vary between communities; some communities may have aging infrastructure, or an older/poorer population less able to absorb a flood, putting them at increased risk from the hazards. As a result, some are considering environmental justice aspects of flood risk reduction. To date, catastrophe models have focused on creating floodmaps (e.g., NOAA's Sea Level Rise Viewer, Climate Central's Surging Seas), or on linking hydrological models to economic loss models (e.g., HEC-RAS + HAZUS). However, this approach may be highly inequitable between areas of different income (as well as other demographics). Some have begun work on combining hydrology with vulnerability information (e.g., USACE's North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study). To our knowledge, no one has tried to adapt the more advanced known heat risk theory to water risk by combining hydrology information (e.g., HEC-RAS, floodplain maps) with the social vulnerability (e.g., Cutter et al.) of the residents. This project will create a method to combine water hazard data with a derived water vulnerability index to help a community understand their current and future water risk. We will use the case study area of Pittsburgh, PA, which faces severe precipitation and riverine flooding hazards. Building on present literature of factors influencing water vulnerability contextualized to the Pittsburgh region, we will identify, quantify, and map the top factors impacting water vulnerability. We will combine these with flood maps to identify the geospatial distribution of water risk. This work will allow policy makers to identify location-specific aspects of water vulnerability and risk in any community, thus promoting environmental justice. It is possible that this type of original research would create maps of relative water risk that may prove as understandable to the general public as other flood maps, and may also

  11. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  12. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  13. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  14. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  15. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  16. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  17. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  18. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  19. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  20. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  1. Development of a risk index for the prediction of chronic post-surgical pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althaus, A; Hinrichs-Rocker, A; Chapman, R; Arránz Becker, O; Lefering, R; Simanski, C; Weber, F; Moser, K-H; Joppich, R; Trojan, S; Gutzeit, N; Neugebauer, E

    2012-07-01

    The incidence of chronic post-surgical pain (CPSP) after various common operations is 10% to 50%. Identification of patients at risk of developing chronic pain, and the management and prevention of CPSP remains inadequate. The aim of this study was to develop an easily applicable risk index for the detection of high-risk patients that takes into account the multifactorial aetiology of CPSP. A comprehensive item pool was derived from a systematic literature search. Items that turned out significant in bivariate analyses were then analysed multivariately, using logistic regression analyses. The items that yielded significant predictors in the multivariate analyses were compiled into an index. The cut-off score for a high risk of developing CPSP with an optimal trade-off between sensitivity and specificity was identified. The data of 150 patients who underwent different types of surgery were included in the analyses. Six months after surgery, 43.3% of the patients reported CPSP. Five predictors multivariately contributed to the prediction of CPSP: capacity overload, preoperative pain in the operating field, other chronic preoperative pain, post-surgical acute pain and co-morbid stress symptoms. These results suggest that several easily assessable preoperative and perioperative patient characteristics can predict a patient's risk of developing CPSP. The risk index may help caregivers to tailor individual pain management and to assist high-risk patients with pain coping. © 2011 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

  2. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  3. Assessing air quality index awareness and use in Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borbet, Timothy C; Gladson, Laura A; Cromar, Kevin R

    2018-04-23

    The Mexico City Metropolitan Area has an expansive urban population and a long history of air quality management challenges. Poor air quality has been associated with adverse pulmonary and cardiac health effects, particularly among susceptible populations with underlying disease. In addition to reducing pollution concentrations, risk communication efforts that inform behavior modification have the potential to reduce public health burdens associated with air pollution. This study investigates the utilization of Mexico's IMECA risk communication index to inform air pollution avoidance behavior among the general population living in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. Individuals were selected via probability sampling and surveyed by phone about their air quality index knowledge, pollution concerns, and individual behaviors. The results indicated reasonably high awareness of the air quality index (53% of respondents), with greater awareness in urban areas, among older and more educated individuals, and for those who received air quality information from a healthcare provider. Additionally, behavior modification was less influenced by index reports as it was by personal perceptions of air quality, and there was no difference in behavior modification among susceptible and non-susceptible groups. Taken together, these results suggest there are opportunities to improve the public health impact of risk communication through an increased focus on susceptible populations and greater encouragement of public action in response to local air quality indices.

  4. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  5. Association of waist circumference, body mass index and conicity index with cardiovascular risk factors in postmenopausal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shidfar, Farzad; Alborzi, Fatemeh; Salehi, Maryam; Nojomi, Marzieh

    2012-09-01

    In menopause, changes in body fat distribution lead to increasing risk of cardiovascular disease and metabolic disorders. The aim of this study was to assess the association of adiposity using the conicity index (CI), body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) with cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidaemia). The sample of this cross-sectional study was collected from June to October 2010 and 165 consecutive menopausal women who had attended the Health and Treatment Centre and Endocrine Research Centre of Firoozgar Hospital in Tehran, Iran were assessed. Age, weight, height, WC, waist-hip ratio (WHR), CI and fat mass were measured. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP), fasting blood glucose, insulin, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and total cholesterol (TC) levels were also determined. All statistical analyses were performed by SPSS version 17 (SPSS Inc, Chicago, IL, USA). Results showed that BMI was positively and significantly associated with SBP (r = 0.21; p = 0.009). WC was positively and significantly correlated with SBP (r = 0.26; p = 0.02) and DBP (r = 0.16; p = 0.05). WHR was also significantly and positively associated with SBP (r = 0.29; p = 0.001). Age and WC were associated with CI quartiles at the 0.05 significance level. The correlation of CI quartiles with SBP and weight were at the 0.01 significance level. We showed a significant association of WC with SBP and DBP, and that BMI could be an important determining factor of SBP. For assessing the association between CI and cardiovascular risk factors, future studies with larger sample sizes are recommended.

  6. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  7. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  8. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  9. Risk management in crop production based on the regional index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kokot Željko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Regional index insurance is one of the newer instruments for reducing losses in crop production. The regional index indicates the average yield or average production value in a region, representing the basis for the premium calculation and insurance benefits. The main advantage of this insurance model is that it does not require the damage assessment, which is one of major problems in the relationship between the insured and insurer. In the case of corn, wheat and sunflower production as the most important crops in the region of Ada municipality, the authors describe the methodology of application of the analysed insurance system. Implementation of this contemporary form of insurance in Serbia would reduce the negative financial consequences in agricultural production. The abovementioned model of insurance can be seen as a significant alternative to conventional insurance, which can increase insured area and number of insured, and trust and confidence in insurance companies would also be restored.

  10. Development of a preliminary risk index to identify trauma patients at risk for an unplanned intubation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dennis; Kobayashi, Leslie; Chang, David; Fortlage, Dale; Coimbra, Raul

    2014-01-01

    The development of respiratory failure requiring an emergent unplanned intubation (UI) is a potentially preventable complication associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to develop a clinical risk index for UI based on readily available clinical data to assist in the identification of trauma patients at risk for this complication. We also sought to determine the impact of UI on patient outcomes. This is a 3-year retrospective analysis of our Level 1 trauma center registry to identify all patients requiring a UI. Patients who required a UI were compared with patients who were never intubated. An additive risk index consisting of 10 clinical variables was created using the final significant variables from a stepwise logistic regression model. The sensitivity and specificity of every possible index score were calculated and added together to calculate the "gain in certainty" values. During the 3-year period, 7,552 patients were admitted, of whom 967 (12.8%) required intubation. Of these, 55 (5.7%) underwent a UI. The final risk index consisted of 10 variables as follows: age 55 years to 64 years, age 65 years or older, male sex, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score of 9 to 13, seizures, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, traumatic brain injury, four or more rib fractures, spine fractures, and long-bone fractures. Gain in certainty was maximized at an index score of 4, with the highest combined sensitivity and specificity of 86.0% and 74.9%, respectively. The probability of UI increased from 0.9% at a score of 1 to 2.9% at 4 and 43% at 9. UI was associated with increased overall complications, length of stay, and mortality (p the development of an additive risk index. Prospective validation of the risk index is potentially warranted. Diagnostic study, level III.

  11. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  12. Safer Roads: Comparisons Between Road Assessment Program and Composite Road Safety Index Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Razelan Intan Suhana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In most countries, crash statistics have becoming very crucial in evaluating road’s safety level. In Malaysia, these data are very important in deciding crash-prone areas known as black spot where specific road improvements plan will be proposed. However due to the unavailability of reliable crash data in many developing countries, appropriate road maintenance measures are facing great troubles. In light of that, several proactive methods in defining road’s safety level such as Road Assessment Program (RAP have emerged. This research aim to compare two proactive methods that have been tested in Malaysian roads ; road assessment program and road environment risk index which was developed based on composite index theory in defining road’s safety level. Composite road environment risk index was combining several crucial environment indicators, assigning weight and aggregating the individual index together to form a single value representing the road’s safety level. Based on the results, it can be concluded that both road assessment program and composite road environment risk index are contradicted in six different ways such as type of speed used, type of analysis used and their final outcomes. However, with an aim to promote safer roads, these two methods can be used concurrently as the outcomes in both methods seems to fulfil each other’s gap very well.

  13. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  14. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  15. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  16. Assessment of the physical activity, body mass index and energy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Declining levels of physical activity at workplaces, during leisure time and when travelling, accompanied by increasing exposure to the mass media, are major determinants of the global obesity epidemic. This study aimed to assess physical activity, the body mass index (BMI) and energy intake of human ...

  17. Body mass index and lung cancer risk in never smokers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kagohashi, K.; Satoh, H.; Kurishima, K.; Ishikawa, H.; Ohtsuka, M.

    2006-01-01

    Background. A relationship between body mass index (BMI) and lung cancer risk in never smokers has not been reported precisely. To evaluate the risk of lung cancer associated with BMI in never smokers, we conducted a case-control study. Methods. The relationship between BMI and the risk of lung cancer in never smokers was investigated in a study of 204 lung cancer cases and 398 controls admitted between 1987 and 2005. Controls were selected from hospitalized age-matched never-smoking patients with non-malignant respiratory disease. Results. When compared with BMI of the leanest group (BMI<20.8) in men, no inverse association between BMI and lung cancer was observed after the adjustment for age (the second BMI group: BMI≥ 20.8 to < 22.9; p=0.683, the third BMI group: BMI≥ 22.9 to < 24.9; p=0.745, and the highest BMI group: BMI≥ 25.0; p=0.327). Similarly, no association in women was found between BMI and lung cancer in these three BMI groups (the second group, p=0.639; the third group, p=0.667; the highest group, p=0.978) when compared with that of the leanest BMI group. Conclusions. Our present study indicated that the association between leanness and the risk of lung cancer might be influenced by other factors such as smoking. (author)

  18. Body mass index and risk of autoimmune diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harpsøe, Maria C; Basit, Saima; Andersson, Mikael

    2014-01-01

    .57) and type 1 diabetes mellitus (HR 2.67; 95% CI, 1.71 to 4.17). Risk of dermatitis herpetiformis increased by 14% (95% CI, 1% to 30%) per BMI unit. Conversely, risk of celiac disease and Raynaud's phenomenon decreased by 7% (95% CI, 1% to 13%) and 12% (95% CI, 4% to 19%) per BMI unit, respectively. Further......BACKGROUND: A possible aetiological link between obesity and certain autoimmune diseases (ADs) has been suggested. We investigated the associations between body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) and 43 ADs. METHODS: 75,008 women participating in the Danish National Birth Cohort were followed during a median......-up, 2430 women (3.2%) developed a total of 2607 new-onset ADs. Risk of any autoimmune disease was increased in obese women (HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.46) compared with normal weight women (18.5-≤25 kg/m2). Obese women (BMI≥30 kg/m2) were at increased risk of sarcoidosis (HR 3.59; 95% CI, 2.31 to 5...

  19. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  20. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  1. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  2. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  3. A novel index for quantifying the risk of early complications for patients undergoing cervical spine surgeries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passias, Peter G; Diebo, Bassel G; Marascalchi, Bryan J; Jalai, Cyrus M; Horn, Samantha R; Zhou, Peter L; Paltoo, Karen; Bono, Olivia J; Worley, Nancy; Poorman, Gregory W; Challier, Vincent; Dixit, Anant; Paulino, Carl; Lafage, Virginie

    2017-11-01

    , alcohol abuse, neurological disorder, nonmetastatic cancer, liver disease, rheumatoid arthritis/collagen vascular diseases, and chronic blood loss/anemia. Surgical parameters included posterior approach to fusion/re-fusion, ≥ 9 levels fused/re-fused, corpectomy, 4-8 levels fused/re-fused, and osteotomy; demographic variables included age ≥ 65 years. These factors increased the risk of at least 1 of MC, SC, revision, or mortality (risk of death). A total of 50 points were distributed among the factors based on the cumulative risk ratio of every factor in proportion to the total risk ratios. CONCLUSIONS This study proposed an index to quantify the potential risk of morbidity and mortality prior to surgical intervention for patients with cervical spine pathology. This index may be useful for surgeons in patient counseling efforts as well as for health insurance companies and future socioeconomics studies in assessing surgical risks and benefits for patients undergoing surgical treatment of the cervical spine.

  4. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  6. A Single Conjunction Risk Assessment Metric: the F-Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan Clayton; Newman, Lauri K.

    2009-01-01

    The Conjunction Assessment Team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center provides conjunction risk assessment for many NASA robotic missions. These risk assessments are based on several figures of merit, such as miss distance, probability of collision, and orbit determination solution quality. However, these individual metrics do not singly capture the overall risk associated with a conjunction, making it difficult for someone without this complete understanding to take action, such as an avoidance maneuver. The goal of this analysis is to introduce a single risk index metric that can easily convey the level of risk without all of the technical details. The proposed index is called the conjunction "F-value." This paper presents the concept of the F-value and the tuning of the metric for use in routine Conjunction Assessment operations.

  7. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  8. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  10. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  11. Body mass index and the risk of Parkinson disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, G; Jousilahti, P; Nissinen, A; Antikainen, R; Kivipelto, M; Tuomilehto, J

    2006-12-12

    To examine the association between body mass index (BMI) and the risk of Parkinson disease (PD). Study cohorts included 22,367 Finnish men and 23,439 women 25 to 59 years of age without a history of PD at baseline. Hazards ratios (HRs) of incident PD were estimated for different levels of BMI. During a mean follow-up period of 18.8 years, 272 men and 254 women developed incident PD. After adjustment for confounding factors (age, study years, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, education, leisure-time physical activity, smoking, and alcohol, coffee, and tea consumption), the HRs of PD at different levels of BMI ( or =30 kg/m(2)) were 1.00, 1.97 (95% CI: 1.21 to 3.22), 1.83 (95% CI: 1.12 to 2.99), 2.34 (95% CI: 1.45 to 3.78), and 2.44 (95% CI: 1.44 to 4.15) in men, and 1.00, 1.50 (95% CI: 0.95 to 2.37), 1.65 (95% CI: 1.05 to 2.59), 1.79 (95% CI: 1.15 to 2.80), and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.12 to 2.78) in women, and 1.00, 1.70 (95% CI: 1.23 to 2.37), 1.70 (95% CI: 1.23 to 2.37), 2.02 (95% CI: 1.46 to 2.79), and 2.03 (95% CI: 1.44 to 2.85) in men and women combined (adjusted also for sex). In both sexes combined, the multivariate-adjusted direct association between BMI and the risk of PD was present both in subjects aged 25 to 49 years and 50 to 59 years, in never smokers and smokers and in participants diagnosed PD before and after 65 years of age. Body mass index is associated with a risk of Parkinson disease. The effect is graded and independent of other risk factors.

  12. Draught risk index tool for building energy simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vorre, Mette Havgaard; Jensen, Rasmus Lund; Nielsen, Peter V.

    2014-01-01

    Flow elements combined with a building energy simulation tool can be used to indicate areas and periods when there is a risk of draught in a room. The study tests this concept by making a tool for post-processing of data from building energy simulations. The objective is to show indications...... of draught risk during a whole year, giving building designers a tool for the design stage of a building. The tool uses simple one-at-a-time calculations of flow elements and assesses the uncertainty of the result by counting the number of overlapping flow elements. The calculation time is low, making...... it usable in the early design stage to optimise the building layout. The tool provides an overview of the general draught pattern over a period, e.g. a whole year, and of how often there is a draught risk....

  13. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  14. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  15. Peripheral artery disease assessed by ankle-brachial index in patients with established cardiovascular disease or at least one risk factor for atherothrombosis - CAREFUL Study: A national, multi-center, cross-sectional observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tabak Omur

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To investigate the presence of peripheral artery disease (PAD via the ankle brachial index (ABI in patients with known cardiovascular and/or cerebrovascular diseases or with at least one risk factor for atherothrombosis. Methods Patients with a history of atherothrombotic events, or aged 50-69 years with at least one cardiovascular risk factor, or > = 70 years of age were included in this multicenter, cross-sectional, non-interventional study (DIREGL04074. Demographics, medical history, physical examination findings, and physician awareness of PAD were analyzed. The number of patients with low ABI ( Results A total of 530 patients (mean age, 63.4 ± 8.7 years; 50.2% female were enrolled. Hypertension and dyslipidemia were present in 88.7% and 65.5% of patients, respectively. PAD-related symptoms were evident in about one-third of the patients, and at least one of the pedal pulses was negative in 6.5% of patients. The frequency of low ABI was 20.0% in the whole study population and 30% for patients older than 70 years. Older age, greater number of total risk factors, and presence of PAD-related physical findings were associated with increased likelihood of low ABI (p Conclusion Our results indicate that advanced age, greater number of total risk factors and presence of PAD-related physical findings were associated with increased likelihood of low ABI. These findings are similar to those reported in similar studies of different populations, and document a fairly high prevalence of PAD in a Mediterranean country.

  16. A probabilistic method for computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injuries compensation claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalle Carbonare, S; Folli, F; Patrini, E; Giudici, P; Bellazzi, R

    2013-01-01

    The increasing demand of health care services and the complexity of health care delivery require Health Care Organizations (HCOs) to approach clinical risk management through proper methods and tools. An important aspect of risk management is to exploit the analysis of medical injuries compensation claims in order to reduce adverse events and, at the same time, to optimize the costs of health insurance policies. This work provides a probabilistic method to estimate the risk level of a HCO by computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injury compensation claims. Our method is based on the estimate of a loss probability distribution from compensation claims data through parametric and non-parametric modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. The loss distribution can be estimated both on the whole dataset and, thanks to the application of a Bayesian hierarchical model, on stratified data. The approach allows to quantitatively assessing the risk structure of the HCO by analyzing the loss distribution and deriving its expected value and percentiles. We applied the proposed method to 206 cases of injuries with compensation requests collected from 1999 to the first semester of 2007 by the HCO of Lodi, in the Northern part of Italy. We computed the risk indexes taking into account the different clinical departments and the different hospitals involved. The approach proved to be useful to understand the HCO risk structure in terms of frequency, severity, expected and unexpected loss related to adverse events.

  17. An index for drought induced financial risk in the mining industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnafous, L.; Lall, U.; Siegel, J.

    2017-02-01

    Water scarcity has emerged as a potential risk for mining operations. High capital spending for desalination and water conflicts leading to asset stranding have recently occurred. Investors in mining companies are interested in the exposure to such risks across portfolios of mining assets (whether the practical at-site consequences are foregone production, higher OPEX and CAPEX and ensuing lost revenues, or asset-stranding). In this paper, an index of the potential financial exposure of a portfolio is developed and its application is illustrated. Since the likely loss at each mine is hard to estimate a priori, one needs a proxy for potential loss. The index considers drought duration, severity and frequency (defined by a return-level in years) at each mining asset, and provides a measure of financial exposure through weighing of production or Net Asset Value. Changes in human needs are not considered, but are relevant, and could be incorporated if global data on mine and other water use were available at the appropriate resolution. Potential for contemporaneous drought incidence across sites in a portfolio is considered specifically. Through an appropriate choice of drought thresholds, an analyst can customize a scenario to assess potential losses in production value or profits, or whether conflicts could emerge that would lead to stranded assets or capital expenditure to secure alternate water supplies. Global climate data sets that allow a customized development of such an index are identified, and selected mining company portfolios are scored as to the risk associated with one publicly available drought index.

  18. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  19. Radiation risk index for pediatric CT. A patient-derived metric

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samei, Ehsan; Tian, Xiaoyu; Paul Segars, W.; Frush, Donald P.

    2017-01-01

    There is a benefit in characterizing radiation-induced cancer risk in pediatric chest and abdominopelvic CT: a singular metric that represents the whole-body radiation burden while also accounting for age, gender and organ sensitivity. To compute an index of radiation risk for pediatric chest and abdominopelvic CT. Using a protocol approved by our institutional review board, 42 pediatric patients (age: 0-16 years, weight: 2-80 kg) were modeled into virtual whole-body anatomical models. Organ doses were estimated for clinical chest and abdominopelvic CT examinations of the patients using validated Monte Carlo simulations of two major scanner models. Using age-, size- and gender-specific organ risk coefficients, the values were converted to normalized effective dose (by dose length product) (denoted as the k factor) and a normalized risk index (denoted as the q factor). An analysis was performed to determine how these factors are correlated with patient age and size for both males and females to provide a strategy to better characterize individualized risk. The k factor was found to be exponentially correlated with the average patient diameter. For both genders, the q factor also exhibited an exponential relationship with both the average patient diameter and with patient age. For both factors, the differences between the scanner models were less than 8%. The study defines a whole-body radiation risk index for chest and abdominopelvic CT imaging, that incorporates individual estimated organ dose values, organ radiation sensitivity, patient size, exposure age and patient gender. This indexing metrology enables the assessment and potential improvement of chest and abdominopelvic CT performance through surveillance of practice dose profiles across patients and may afford improved informed communication. (orig.)

  20. Radiation risk index for pediatric CT. A patient-derived metric

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Samei, Ehsan [Duke University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Durham, NC (United States); Duke University Medical Center, Department of Biomedical Engineering, Electrical and Computer Engineering, Durham, NC (United States); Duke University Medical Center, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Durham, NC (United States); Tian, Xiaoyu [Duke University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Durham, NC (United States); Paul Segars, W. [Duke University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Carl E. Ravin Advanced Imaging Laboratories, Durham, NC (United States); Duke University Medical Center, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Durham, NC (United States); Frush, Donald P. [Duke University Medical Center, Medical Physics Graduate Program, Durham, NC (United States); Duke University Medical Center, Division of Pediatric Radiology, Department of Radiology, Durham, NC (United States)

    2017-12-15

    There is a benefit in characterizing radiation-induced cancer risk in pediatric chest and abdominopelvic CT: a singular metric that represents the whole-body radiation burden while also accounting for age, gender and organ sensitivity. To compute an index of radiation risk for pediatric chest and abdominopelvic CT. Using a protocol approved by our institutional review board, 42 pediatric patients (age: 0-16 years, weight: 2-80 kg) were modeled into virtual whole-body anatomical models. Organ doses were estimated for clinical chest and abdominopelvic CT examinations of the patients using validated Monte Carlo simulations of two major scanner models. Using age-, size- and gender-specific organ risk coefficients, the values were converted to normalized effective dose (by dose length product) (denoted as the k factor) and a normalized risk index (denoted as the q factor). An analysis was performed to determine how these factors are correlated with patient age and size for both males and females to provide a strategy to better characterize individualized risk. The k factor was found to be exponentially correlated with the average patient diameter. For both genders, the q factor also exhibited an exponential relationship with both the average patient diameter and with patient age. For both factors, the differences between the scanner models were less than 8%. The study defines a whole-body radiation risk index for chest and abdominopelvic CT imaging, that incorporates individual estimated organ dose values, organ radiation sensitivity, patient size, exposure age and patient gender. This indexing metrology enables the assessment and potential improvement of chest and abdominopelvic CT performance through surveillance of practice dose profiles across patients and may afford improved informed communication. (orig.)

  1. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  2. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  3. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  4. [Voice disorders in female teachers assessed by Voice Handicap Index].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niebudek-Bogusz, Ewa; Kuzańska, Anna; Woźnicka, Ewelina; Sliwińska-Kowalska, Mariola

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the application of Voice Handicap Index (VHI) in the diagnosis of occupational voice disorders in female teachers. The subjective assessment of voice by VHI was performed in fifty subjects with dysphonia diagnosed in laryngovideostroboscopic examination. The control group comprised 30 women whose jobs did not involve vocal effort. The results of the total VHI score and each of its subscales: functional, emotional and physical was significantly worse in the study group than in controls (p teachers estimated their own voice problems as a moderate disability, while 12% of them reported severe voice disability. However, all non-teachers assessed their voice problems as slight, their results ranged at the lowest level of VHI score. This study confirmed that VHI as a tool for self-assessment of voice can be a significant contribution to the diagnosis of occupational dysphonia.

  5. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  6. Geriatric nutritional risk index as a prognostic factor in patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanemasa, Yusuke; Shimoyama, Tatsu; Sasaki, Yuki; Hishima, Tsunekazu; Omuro, Yasushi

    2018-06-01

    The geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) is a simple and well-established nutritional assessment tool that is a significant prognostic factor for various cancers. However, the role of the GNRI in predicting clinical outcomes of diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients has not been investigated. To address this issue, we retrospectively analyzed a total of 476 patients with newly diagnosed de novo DLBCL. We defined the best cutoff value of the GNRI as 96.8 using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Patients with a GNRI risk by National Comprehensive Cancer Network-International Prognostic Index (NCCN-IPI), the 5-year OS was significantly lower in patients with a GNRI risk, 59.5 vs. 75.2%, P = 0.006; high risk, 37.4 vs. 64.9%, P = 0.033). In the present study, we demonstrated that the GNRI was an independent prognostic factor in DLBCL patients. The GNRI could identify a population of poor-risk patients among those with high-intermediate and high-risk by NCCN-IPI.

  7. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  8. Assessing the risk of bias in randomized controlled trials in the field of dentistry indexed in the Lilacs (Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde) database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Christiane Alves; Loureiro, Carlos Alfredo Salles; Saconato, Humberto; Atallah, Alvaro Nagib

    2011-03-01

    Well-conducted randomized controlled trials (RCTs) represent the highest level of evidence when the research question relates to the effect of therapeutic or preventive interventions. However, the degree of control over bias between RCTs presents great variability between studies. For this reason, with the increasing interest in and production of systematic reviews and meta-analyses, it has been necessary to develop methodology supported by empirical evidence, so as to encourage and enhance the production of valid RCTs with low risk of bias. The aim here was to conduct a methodological analysis within the field of dentistry, regarding the risk of bias in open-access RCTs available in the Lilacs (Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde) database. This was a methodology study conducted at Universidade Federal de São Paulo (Unifesp) that assessed the risk of bias in RCTs, using the following dimensions: allocation sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding, and data on incomplete outcomes. Out of the 4,503 articles classified, only 10 studies (0.22%) were considered to be true RCTs and, of these, only a single study was classified as presenting low risk of bias. The items that the authors of these RCTs most frequently controlled for were blinding and data on incomplete outcomes. The effective presence of bias seriously weakened the reliability of the results from the dental studies evaluated, such that they would be of little use for clinicians and administrators as support for decision-making processes.

  9. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  10. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  11. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  12. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  13. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  15. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  16. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  17. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  18. Dry respirometric index assessment using open and close respirometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andreottola, G.; Dallago, L.; Ragazzi, M.

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this work is to compare two different approaches for the evaluation of the respirometric index of dry biodegradable solid matter. The two used tools have been built in the University of Trent. The AIR-A respirometer (Open Respirometric Index Analyser) used in the experimentation is a pilot device made by a small steel reactor kept at steady temperature. The oxygen analyser and the temperature probe are directly connected to a PC through an acquisition device which allows to follow the evolution of the system. A balance between the amount of the volatile solids, the free volume and the decrease of the oxygen allows to assess the respiration rate. The AIR-C respirometer (Close Respirometric Index Analyser) is constituted by a reactor in which the trend of the internal temperature and the total pressure are constantly measured. A basic solution inside the reactor guarantees the absorption of CO 2 allowing to associate an oxygen consumption to the measure of the total pressure. The reactor is built in order to allow a wide exchange surface between compost and atmosphere, limiting the thickness of the layer of compost in which oxygen must diffuse. A correct balance with the effect induced by the temperature allows to calculate the respirometric index, which is related to the microbic activity only in a portion of the total lasting of the test. The analysis of the generated data and the introduction of some technical modification have allowed to obtain with the two different approaches the same values for the respirometric index [it

  19. An index for the assessment of degraded Mediterranean forest ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Modica

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Diagnosing the degradation degree of forest ecosystems is the basis for restoration strategies. However, there is no literature documenting how to quantify the forest degradation degree by using synthetic indicators, also because there is not a widely accepted definition for "forest degradation" and "degraded forest". Although there are many definitions of forest degradation that converge on the loss of ecosystem services, still today there are no largely accepted methods that give operational guidance to help in defining it. In the present research, with the aim to assess the degree of forest degradation, an integrated index - FDI, Forest Degradation Index - was developed.Area of study: In this first application, the FDI was applied and validated at stand level in two different Mediterranean forest types in two different case studies: Madonie and Nedrodi regional Parks (Sicily, Italy. The first dominated by sessile oak [Quercus petraea (Matt. Liebl. subsp. austrotyrrhenica Brullo, Guarino & Siracusa], the second dominated by cork oak (Quercus suber L..Material and methods: FDI is a synthetic index structured starting from representative and relatively easily detectable parameters. Here, we propose a set of six indicators that should be assessed to determine the forest degradation: Structural Index (SI, Canopy Cover (CC, Natural Regeneration Density (NRD, Focal Species of Degradation (FSD, Coarse Woody Debris (CWD, and Soil Depth (SD. FDI, here proposed and discussed, has been based on a MCDA (Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis approach using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP technique, and implemented in order to contribute in finding simple indicators useful for forest restoration purposes that have an eco-functional basis.Main results: An integrated index of forest degradation has been defined. FDI values are comprised in the closed interval [0, 10], ranging from class I (Higher ecological functionality to class IV (Lower

  20. Analytical Modeling for Underground Risk Assessment in Smart Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Israr Ullah

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available In the developed world, underground facilities are increasing day-by-day, as it is considered as an improved utilization of available space in smart cities. Typical facilities include underground railway lines, electricity lines, parking lots, water supply systems, sewerage network, etc. Besides its utility, these facilities also pose serious threats to citizens and property. To preempt accidental loss of precious human lives and properties, a real time monitoring system is highly desirable for conducting risk assessment on continuous basis and timely report any abnormality before its too late. In this paper, we present an analytical formulation to model system behavior for risk analysis and assessment based on various risk contributing factors. Based on proposed analytical model, we have evaluated three approximation techniques for computing final risk index: (a simple linear approximation based on multiple linear regression analysis; (b hierarchical fuzzy logic based technique in which related risk factors are combined in a tree like structure; and (c hybrid approximation approach which is a combination of (a and (b. Experimental results shows that simple linear approximation fails to accurately estimate final risk index as compared to hierarchical fuzzy logic based system which shows that the latter provides an efficient method for monitoring and forecasting critical issues in the underground facilities and may assist in maintenance efficiency as well. Estimation results based on hybrid approach fails to accurately estimate final risk index. However, hybrid scheme reveals some interesting and detailed information by performing automatic clustering based on location risk index.

  1. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  2. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  3. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  4. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  5. Gingival immunologic defense index: a new indicator for evaluating dental plaque infection risk in allergic children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seno Pradopo

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available There is a possible relationship between dental plaque and children allergic diseases. According to literatures, gingivitis suffered mostly by allergic children than control. Case reports also revealed that dental plaque control therapy was able to reduce, even eliminate rhinosinusitis and asthmatic symptoms without additional medications. However, the exact method for confirming the gingivitis-related allergy is still uncertain. Allergic diseases have multifactorial etiologies and dental plaque had been proposed as a new trigger of allergic symptoms. Nevertheless, since not every child with gingivitis suffered from allergy or vice versa, this uncertain phenomenon may lead to patients or other clinician disbelief. The objective of the present study was to propose a new method, which involving the Gingival immunologic defense index (GIDI to evaluate the susceptibility to allergic diseases. GIDI is an index that had been developed earlier for evaluating gingival immunologic defense with respect to immunoglobulin A (IgA levels. This index based on the simple count of the inflamed gingival surfaces of a child plus the measurement of salivary IgA content. It provides clinicians with important information about the immunologic defense potential of each subject. Interestingly, most allergic children also had inherited IgA deficiency, thus this concept is likely. Based on literatures, GIDI could be a potential index for evaluating the risk of allergic diseases through gingival health assessment. However, prior investigation to the value of Indonesian GIDI index which related to allergy should be conducted.

  6. A Persian version of Geriatric Oral Health Assessment Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezaei, Mohammad; Rashedi, Vahid; Khedmati Morasae, Esmaeil

    2016-09-01

    This study aimed to translate the original English version of the Geriatric Oral Health Assessment Index (GOHAI) into a Persian version and to assess the preliminary psychometric properties of the translated index among a sample of Persian elders. Twelve items included in GOHAI were first translated into Persian using a back-translation technique and then were compared with the original version. Four hundred and seventeen elderly subjects who were admitted to a day care centre answered GOHAI and an attached socio-demographic questionnaire. Internal consistency of the Persian version was measured by Cronbach's alpha. Test-retest reliability was assessed by intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and weighted kappa. Factor structure of GOHAI was evaluated by principal component factor analysis. Mean of GOHAI score was 45.71 (SD: 5.14; range: 27-51). The mean of GOHAI score was higher for the elders who rated their oral and general health as 'good'. The Cronbach's alpha for GOHAI score was 0.748, indicating a high degree of internal consistency and homogeneity between the GOHAI items. The test-retest correlation for the total GOHAI score using ICC was 0.763 (95% CI = 0.713-0.809). Factor analysis revealed a three-factor solution that bolstered the theoretical construction of the index. Significant differences in the GOHAI scores were found for income and current number of teeth. The Persian version of the GOHAI can be used reliably to identify oral health-related concerns of older Persian speakers, but further research is needed to confirm its cultural consonance in this population. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S and The Gerodontology Association. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  8. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  9. Hyperbaric index in the primary prevention of hypertensive complications in high-risk pregnancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero González, Alfonso; Uribe Moya, Silvia; Arenas Moncaleano, Ivan Gilberto; Borrajo Prol, María Paz; García García, María Jesús; López Sánchez, Luis

    2015-01-01

    Preeclampsia (PE) is a major cause of fetal morbidity and mortality. In the Western World, PE affects 2-7% of pregnancies and is responsible for 50,000 deaths annually. Early detection is a priority as it can change the clinical course, but there are no biomarkers or instrumental methods with high sensitivity and specificity. Only the hyperbaric index has a sensitivity and specificity of 99% for early identification of pregnant women at risk of developing PE, but its use is not widespread. To assess the usefulness of the hyperbaric index in the primary prevention of hypertensive pregnancy complications in a public healthcare area. This is a retrospective study of pregnancies that occurred in our area during the period 2007-2012 (N=11,784). The diagnosis was established by the hyperbaric index and pregnant women at risk were treated with ASA at night. In pregnant patients referred to the nephrology clinic (38.2%), diagnosed as high-risk for PE, and treated with 100mg ASA/night (from week 17), the incidence of PE episodes was reduced by 96.94. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  10. Assessment of impact on seafloor features in INDEX area

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sharma, R.

    Marine Georesources and Geotechnology,18:237–250,2000Copyright ©2000 Taylor & Francis1064-119X / 00 $12.00 1 .00 Assessment of Impact on Seafloor Features in INDEX Area RAHUL SHARMANational Institute of Oceanography,Dona Paula,Goa 403004,India...Benthic disturbance,environmental impact,photographic and subbottomdata,seafloor features. Imaging and sounding techniques are effective tools for obtaining first-hand information forassessing the baseline (undisturbed) conditions as well as the impact (disturbed...

  11. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  12. Development of a new biotic index to assess freshwater pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Jianguo

    2006-01-01

    We developed a new biotic index of species pollution value (SPV) and community pollution value (CPV) based on the correlation of protozoan communities with chemical water quality to assess freshwater pollution. Five hundred and twenty-three species of protozoa SPV were established based on the data of River Hangjiang and Lake Donghu. The present research was conducted in order to further consummate the biotic index. Protozoa of the water system in Changde City were collected from 16 stations using the PFU method and the water chemical parameters of the stations were analyzed. The results showed that CPV calculated from SPV had a close correlation with the degree of water pollution (p < 0.00001), which indicated that the method is reliable. By combining the data of River Hangjiang, Lake Donghu and Changde City, the final form of SPV was accomplished and the SPV list increased to 757. The ultimate water standard evaluated by CPV calculated from SPV was proposed. - A new biotic index of water quality based on protozoa is described

  13. Development of a new biotic index to assess freshwater pollution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang Jianguo [College of Food and Bioengineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640 (China)]. E-mail: jgjiang@scut.edu.cn

    2006-01-15

    We developed a new biotic index of species pollution value (SPV) and community pollution value (CPV) based on the correlation of protozoan communities with chemical water quality to assess freshwater pollution. Five hundred and twenty-three species of protozoa SPV were established based on the data of River Hangjiang and Lake Donghu. The present research was conducted in order to further consummate the biotic index. Protozoa of the water system in Changde City were collected from 16 stations using the PFU method and the water chemical parameters of the stations were analyzed. The results showed that CPV calculated from SPV had a close correlation with the degree of water pollution (p < 0.00001), which indicated that the method is reliable. By combining the data of River Hangjiang, Lake Donghu and Changde City, the final form of SPV was accomplished and the SPV list increased to 757. The ultimate water standard evaluated by CPV calculated from SPV was proposed. - A new biotic index of water quality based on protozoa is described.

  14. A multi-attribute Systemic Risk Index for comparing and prioritizing chemical industrial areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reniers, G.L.L.; Sörensen, K.; Dullaert, W.

    2012-01-01

    Measures taken to decrease interdependent risks within chemical industrial areas should be based on quantitative data from a holistic (cluster-based) point of view. Therefore, this paper examines the typology of networks representing industrial areas to formulate recommendations to more effectively protect a chemical cluster against existing systemic risks. Chemical industrial areas are modeled as two distinct complex networks and are prioritized by computing two sub-indices with respect to existing systemic safety and security risks (using Domino Danger Units) and supply chain risks (using units from an ordinal expert scale). Subsequently, a Systemic Risk Index for the industrial area is determined employing the Borda algorithm, whereby the systemic risk index considers both a safety and security network risk index and a supply chain network risk index. The developed method allows decreasing systemic risks within chemical industrial areas from a holistic (inter-organizational and/or inter-cluster) perspective. An illustrative example is given.

  15. Risk Profile Analysis on BIST30 Exchange Index

    OpenAIRE

    Ural, Mert; Demireli, Erhan

    2018-01-01

    Inthis study, a portfolio was created by using the stocks listed in BIST30 indexand the portfolio risk was measured by using Capital Asset Pricing Model. Afterthat risk decomposition was made by purifying the risk of the stocks from totalmarket risk and by this way the systematic and non-systematic risk amounts havebeen determined for both the portfolio and each stock.

  16. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  17. Assessing insomnia in adolescents: comparison of Insomnia Severity Index, Athens Insomnia Scale and Sleep Quality Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Ka-Fai; Kan, Katherine Ka-Ki; Yeung, Wing-Fai

    2011-05-01

    To compare the psychometric properties of the Chinese versions of Insomnia Severity Index (ISI), Athens Insomnia Scale (AIS) and Sleep Quality Index (SQI) for assessment and screening of insomnia in adolescents. This is a school-based survey of 1516 adolescents aged 12-19 years. Sleep-wake habit questionnaire, ISI, AIS, SQI, Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) and 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) were administered. Insomnia Interview Schedule was used to assess the severity of insomnia symptoms and DSM-IV-TR diagnosis of insomnia. The Cronbach's alpha of ISI, AIS and SQI were 0.83, 0.81 and 0.65, respectively, and the 2-week test-retest reliability were 0.79, 0.80 and 0.72. All three scales had a 2-factor structure, and their scores were significantly correlated with sleep-wake variables, ESS and GHQ-12 scores, smoking and drinking habits, and academic performance. The areas under curve of ISI, AIS and SQI for detecting clinical insomnia were 0.85, 0.80 and 0.85, respectively. The optimal cut-offs for ISI, AIS and SQI were a total score of nine (sensitivity/specificity: 0.87/0.75), seven (sensitivity/specificity: 0.78/0.74) and five (sensitivity/specificity: 0.83/0.79), respectively. The Chinese versions of ISI, AIS and SQI are reliable and valid instruments. The ISI and AIS appear to have better psychometric properties than the SQI. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. The Perinatal Risk Index: Early Risks Experienced by Domestic Adoptees in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marceau, Kristine; De Araujo-Greecher, Marielena; Miller, Emily S; Massey, Suena H; Mayes, Linda C; Ganiban, Jody M; Reiss, David; Shaw, Daniel S; Leve, Leslie D; Neiderhiser, Jenae M

    2016-01-01

    We aimed to assess comprehensively the prevalence of perinatal risks experienced by a potentially high-risk yet understudied population of children domestically adopted in the United States. Data are from participant report and medical records from mothers (n = 580) who completed a domestic adoption placement with nonrelatives at or near birth (Mean placement age = 7 days). We describe a comprehensive measure of perinatal risks, including divergences from previous assessment tools and the incorporation of multiple reporters, and report the prevalence of various types of perinatal risks. The prevalence of each specific risk factor was generally low, although several risks were more prevalent in this sample than estimates from nationally representative publicly available data. Nearly the entire sample (99%) experienced some type of risk exposure. Birth mothers who placed their children for adoption domestically in the US experience higher levels of perinatal risks than the national average, but not for all specific types of risk. Thus, the developmental trajectories of children adopted domestically may systematically differ from the general population to the extent that these specific perinatal risks impact development.

  19. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  20. Selfie Aging Index: An Index for the Self-assessment of Healthy and Active Aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonçalves, Judite; Gomes, Maria Isabel; Fonseca, Miguel; Teodoro, Tomás; Barros, Pedro Pita; Botelho, Maria-Amália

    2017-01-01

    Governments across Europe want to promote healthy and active aging, as a matter of both public health and economic sustainability. Designing policies focused on the most vulnerable groups requires information at the individual level. However, a measure of healthy and active aging at the individual level does not yet exist. This paper develops the Selfie Aging Index (SAI), an individual-level index of healthy and active aging. The SAI is developed thinking about a tool that would allow each person to take a selfie of her aging status. Therefore, it is based entirely on self-assessed indicators. This paper also illustrates how the SAI may look like in practice. The SAI is based on the Biopsychosocial Assessment Model (MAB), a tool for the multidimensional assessment of older adults along three domains: biological, psychological, and social. Indicators are selected and their weights determined based on an ordered probit model that relates the MAB indicators to self-assessed health, which proxies healthy and active aging. The ordered probit model predicts the SAI based on the estimated parameters. Finally, predictions are rescaled to the 0-1 interval. Data for the SAI development come from the Study of the Aging Profiles of the Portuguese Population and the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe. The selected indicators are BMI, having difficulties moving around indoors and performing the activities of daily living, feeling depressed, feeling nervous, lacking energy, time awareness score, marital status, having someone to confide in, education, type of job, exercise, and smoking status. The model also determines their weights. Results shed light on various factors that contribute significantly to healthy and active aging. Two examples are mental health and exercise, which deserve more attention from individuals themselves, health-care professionals, and public health policy. The SAI has the potential to put the individual at the center of the healthy and

  1. Assessment of Differential Item Functioning in the Experiences of Discrimination Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Timothy J.; Berkman, Lisa F.; Gortmaker, Steven L.; Kiefe, Catarina I.; Jacobs, David R.; Seeman, Teresa E.; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2011-01-01

    The psychometric properties of instruments used to measure self-reported experiences of discrimination in epidemiologic studies are rarely assessed, especially regarding construct validity. The authors used 2000–2001 data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study to examine differential item functioning (DIF) in 2 versions of the Experiences of Discrimination (EOD) Index, an index measuring self-reported experiences of racial/ethnic and gender discrimination. DIF may confound interpretation of subgroup differences. Large DIF was observed for 2 of 7 racial/ethnic discrimination items: White participants reported more racial/ethnic discrimination for the “at school” item, and black participants reported more racial/ethnic discrimination for the “getting housing” item. The large DIF by race/ethnicity in the index for racial/ethnic discrimination probably reflects item impact and is the result of valid group differences between blacks and whites regarding their respective experiences of discrimination. The authors also observed large DIF by race/ethnicity for 3 of 7 gender discrimination items. This is more likely to have been due to item bias. Users of the EOD Index must consider the advantages and disadvantages of DIF adjustment (omitting items, constructing separate measures, and retaining items). The EOD Index has substantial usefulness as an instrument that can assess self-reported experiences of discrimination. PMID:22038104

  2. Assessment of Silt Density Index (SDI) as Fouling Propensity Parameter in Reverse Osmosis Desalination

    KAUST Repository

    Rachman, Rinaldi

    2011-07-01

    Reverse osmosis operations are facing persistent fouling phenomenon that has challenged the integrity of these processes. Prediction of fouling potential by measuring a fouling index toward feed water is essential to ensure robust operation. Moreover, employing a reliable fouling index with good reproducibility and precision is necessary. Silt density index (SDI) is considered insufficient in terms of reliability and empirical theory, among other limitations. Nevertheless due its simplicity, SDI measurement is utilized extensively in RO desalination systems. The aim of this research is to assess the reliability of SDI. Methods include the investigation of different SDI membranes and study of the nature of the SDI filtration. Results demonstrate the existence of the membrane properties\\' variation within manufacturers, which then causes a lack of accuracy in fouling risk estimation. The nature of particles during SDI filtration provides information that particle concentration and size play a significant role on SDI quantification with substantial representation given by particles with size close to membrane nominal pore size. Moreover, turbidity assisted SDI measurements along with determination of UF pretreated and clean water fouling potential, establishes the indication of non-fouling related phenomena involved on SDI measurement such as a natural organic matter adsorption and hydrodynamic condition that alters during filtration. Additionally, it was found that the latter affects the sensitivity of SDI by being represented by some portions of SDI value. Keywords: Reverse Osmosis, Fouling index, Particulate Fouling, Silt Density Index (SDI), and Assessment of SDI.

  3. Body mass index, exercise capacity, and mortality risk in male veterans with hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faselis, Charles; Doumas, Michael; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes; Kheirbek, Raya; Korshak, Lauren; Manolis, Athanasios; Pittaras, Andreas; Tsioufis, Costas; Papademetriou, Vasilios; Fletcher, Ross; Kokkinos, Peter

    2012-04-01

    Overweight and obesity are associated with increased risk of chronic diseases and mortality. Exercise capacity is inversely associated with mortality risk. However, little is known on the interaction between fitness, fatness, and mortality risk in hypertensive individuals. Thus, we assessed the interaction between exercise capacity, fatness, and all-cause mortality in hypertensive males. A graded exercise test was performed in 4,183 hypertensive veterans (mean age ± s.d.; 63.3 ± 10.5 years) at the Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Washington, DC. We defined three body weight categories based on body mass index (BMI): normal weight (BMI 7.5 METs). During a median follow-up period of 7.2 years, there were 1,000 deaths. The association between exercise capacity and mortality risk was strong, inverse, and graded. For each 1-MET increase in exercise capacity the adjusted risk was 20% for normal weight, 12% for overweight, and 25% for obese (P exercise capacity is associated with lower mortality risk in hypertensive males regardless of BMI. The risk for overweight and obese but fit individuals was significantly lower when compared to normal weight but unfit. These findings suggest that in older hypertensive men, it may be healthier to be fit regardless of standard BMI category than unfit and normal weight.

  4. Prognostic Value of the Nutritional Risk Index in Heart Transplant Recipients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barge-Caballero, Eduardo; García-López, Fernando; Marzoa-Rivas, Raquel; Barge-Caballero, Gonzalo; Couto-Mallón, David; Paniagua-Martín, María J; Solla-Buceta, Miguel; Velasco-Sierra, Carlos; Pita-Gutiérrez, Francisco; Herrera-Noreña, José M; Cuenca-Castillo, José J; Vázquez-Rodríguez, José Manuel; Crespo-Leiro, María G

    2017-08-01

    To study the prognostic impact of preoperative nutritional status, as assessed through the nutritional risk index (NRI), on postoperative outcomes after heart transplantation (HT). We conducted a retrospective, single-center study of 574 patients who underwent HT from 1991 to 2014. Preoperative NRI was calculated as 1.519 × serum albumin (g/L) + 41.7 × (body weight [kg] / ideal body weight [kg]). The association between preoperative NRI and postoperative outcomes was analyzed by means of multivariable logistic regression and multivariable Cox regression. Mean NRI before HT was 100.9 ± 9.9. According to this parameter, the prevalence of severe nutritional risk (NRI risk (83.5 ≤ NRI risk (97.5 ≤ NRI risk of postoperative infection (adjusted OR, 0.97; 95%CI, 0.95-1.00; P = .027) and prolonged postoperative ventilator support (adjusted OR, 0.96; 95%CI, 0.94-0.98; P = .001). Patients at moderate or severe nutritional risk had significantly higher 1-year post-HT mortality (adjusted HR, 1.55; 95%CI, 1.22-1.97; P risk of postoperative complications and mortality after HT. Preoperative NRI determination may help to identify HT candidates who might benefit from nutritional intervention. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Towards a Comparative Index of Seaport Climate-Risk: Development of Indicators from Open Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntosh, R. D.; Becker, A.

    2016-02-01

    Seaports represent an example of coastal infrastructure that is at once critical to global trade, constrained to the land-sea interface, and exposed to weather and climate hazards. Seaports face impacts associated with projected changes in sea level, sedimentation, ocean chemistry, wave dynamics, temperature, precipitation, and storm frequency and intensity. Port decision-makers have the responsibility to enhance resilience against these impacts. At the multi-port (regional or national) scale, policy-makers must prioritize adaptation efforts to maximize the efficiency of limited physical and financial resources. Prioritization requires comparing across seaports, and comparison requires a standardized assessment method, but efforts to date have either been limited in scope to exposure-only assessments or limited in scale to evaluate one port in isolation from a system of ports. In order to better understand the distribution of risk across ports and to inform transportation resilience policy, we are developing a comparative assessment method to measure the relative climate-risk faced by a sample of ports. Our mixed-methods approach combines a quantitative, data-driven, indicator-based assessment with qualitative data collected via expert-elicitation. In this presentation, we identify and synthesize over 120 potential risk indicators from open data sources. Indicators represent exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity for a pilot sample of 20 ports. Our exploratory data analysis, including Principal Component Analysis, uncovered sources of variance between individual ports and between indicators. Next steps include convening an expert panel representing the perspectives of multiple transportation system agencies to find consensus on a suite of robust indicators and metrics for maritime freight node climate risk assessment. The index will be refined based on expert feedback, the sample size expanded, and additional indicators sought from closed data sources

  6. The importance of radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pochin, E.E.

    1979-01-01

    In its Publication 26, ICRP recommends a system of radiation dose limitation that is designed to ensure adequate protection from the harmful effects of radiation in conditions both of occupational and of environmental exposure. Clearly, however, no such system can be recommended or accepted as sufficiently safe unless the risks of the resultant exposures have been quantitatively assessed. Publication 26 reflects the increasing quantitative information that is now available on (a) carcinogenic risks of radiation in man, both from exposure of the whole body and from that of individual organs, at moderate exposures; (b) theoretical bases for inference of risk, from moderate to lower exposures; (c) genetic risks in the mouse, and inferences from such risks to those in man; (d) the dose equivalent levels at which certain non-stochastic effects may be induced. Despite a number of uncertainties, substantially improved estimates can therefore be made of the levels of safety that are likely to be achieved by observing the Commission's recommended dose limits, and the associated system of limitation of exposures to levels as low as reasonably achievable below these limits. Both for occupational exposure and for the exposure of the members of the public, these estimates are expressed in Publication 26 in terms of the risk of inducing fatal malignancies or serious hereditary ill health. These frequencies are compared with those of occupational fatalities in other industries or with accidental fatalities amongst the general public. The comparison between harm from radiation and from other agents in different industries is extended in ICRP-27 (on ''Problems Involved in Developing an Index of Harm'') in a review of the time lost through occupational diseases and non-fatal accidents, as well as from fatal diseases and accidents, so that the levels of safety achievable by the Commission's recommendations can be reviewed in the general perspective of occupational safety. (author)

  7. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  8. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  9. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  10. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  11. Bioavailability in ecological risk. Assessment for radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnier-Laplace, J.; Gilbin, R.; Della-Vedova, C.; Adam, C.; Simon, O.; Denison, F.; Beaugelin, K.

    2005-01-01

    The guidance for performing Ecological Risk Assessments (ERA) in Europe has been published in 2003 in the EC's Technical Guidance Document. This document constitutes the official reference in which current water quality standards and risk assessment approach for metals/metalloids are still mainly based on total or dissolved concentrations. However, it has been recognized that accurate assessment of the bio-available metal fraction is crucial, even if the way to incorporate bioavailability into these procedures is still under discussion. The speciation of a pollutant in the exposure medium is the first factor that regulates its bioavailability and consequently its bioaccumulation and the induced biological effects. Therefore, within any ecological risk assessment, bioavailability has obvious implications: firstly in exposure analysis which aim is to determine Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC); secondly in effect analysis while deriving the so-called Predicted No-Effect Concentrations (PNEC) as toxicity is often linked to the amount of the contaminant incorporated into the tissues of biota. Similarities between metals/metalloids and radionuclides are limited to the biogeochemical behaviour of the element considered and to the need to use bioavailability models. In addition, for radionuclides, emitted ionising radiations (type and energy) need to be taken into account for both exposure and effect analyses whilst performing dosimetric calculations appropriate to the exposure scenarios. A methodology for properly implementing bioavailability models is explained and illustrated for aqueous U(VI), starting from a comprehensive review of the thermodynamic data relevant to environmentally-realistic physico-chemical conditions. Then, the use of thermodynamic equilibrium modelling as a tool for interpreting the bioavailability of U(VI) is presented. Using a systematic approach, different bioavailability models of increasing complexity were tested to model U bio

  12. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  13. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  14. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  15. Validation of the What Matters Index: A brief, patient-reported index that guides care for chronic conditions and can substitute for computer-generated risk models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasson, John H; Ho, Lynn; Soloway, Laura; Moore, L Gordon

    2018-01-01

    Current health care delivery relies on complex, computer-generated risk models constructed from insurance claims and medical record data. However, these models produce inaccurate predictions of risk levels for individual patients, do not explicitly guide care, and undermine health management investments in many patients at lesser risk. Therefore, this study prospectively validates a concise patient-reported risk assessment that addresses these inadequacies of computer-generated risk models. Five measures with well-documented impacts on the use of health services are summed to create a "What Matters Index." These measures are: 1) insufficient confidence to self-manage health problems, 2) pain, 3) bothersome emotions, 4) polypharmacy, and 5) adverse medication effects. We compare the sensitivity and predictive values of this index with two representative risk models in a population of 8619 Medicaid recipients. The patient-reported "What Matters Index" and the conventional risk models are found to exhibit similar sensitivities and predictive values for subsequent hospital or emergency room use. The "What Matters Index" is also reliable: akin to its performance during development, for patients with index scores of 1, 2, and ≥3, the odds ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) for subsequent hospitalization within 1 year, relative to patients with a score of 0, are 1.3 (1.1-1.6), 2.0 (1.6-2.4), and 3.4 (2.9-4.0), respectively; for emergency room use, the corresponding odds ratios are 1.3 (1.1-1.4), 1.9 (1.6-2.1), and 2.9 (2.6-3.3). Similar findings were replicated among smaller populations of 1061 mostly older patients from nine private practices and 4428 Medicaid patients without chronic conditions. In contrast to complex computer-generated risk models, the brief patient-reported "What Matters Index" immediately and unambiguously identifies fundamental, remediable needs for each patient and more sensibly directs the delivery of services to patient categories based on

  16. Economic Risk Assessment Taking Into Account the Volume Oscillator Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loredana Mihaela LAPADUSI

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Economic risk can be assessed from many points of view, but generally speaking it means the firm's inability to match workload with cost structure. Expansion of production capacity, adaptation to new technologies, diversification of products are only a few factors influencing risk. These, along with financial risk and bankruptcy risk constitute the most important category of risk which presents a great interest for the banks, shareholders, managers, business partners, etc. The purpose of this article is to provide a brief overview of tje oscillation of your company's activity from the point of view of economic risk. The main objective of this research lies in economic risk assessment by means of the margin of safety, the safety index and critical time point.

  17. Predictive Value of Triglyceride Glucose Index for the Risk of Incident Diabetes: A 4-Year Retrospective Longitudinal Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Da Young; Lee, Eun Seo; Kim, Ji Hyun; Park, Se Eun; Park, Cheol-Young; Oh, Ki-Won; Park, Sung-Woo; Rhee, Eun-Jung; Lee, Won-Young

    The Triglyceride Glucose Index (TyG index) is considered a surrogate marker of insulin resistance. The aim of this study is to investigate whether the TyG index has a predictive role in identifying individuals with a high risk of incident diabetes and to compare it with other indicators of metabolic health. A total 2900 non-diabetic adults who attended five consecutive annual health check-ups at Kangbuk Samsung Hospital was divided into four subgroups using three methods: (1) baseline TyG index; (2) obesity status (body mass index ≥25 kg/m2) and cutoff value of TyG index; (3) obesity status and metabolic health, defined as having fewer than two of the five components of high blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, triglyceride, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and highest decile of homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance. The development of diabetes was assessed annually using self-questionnaire, fasting glucose, and glycated hemoglobin. We compared the risk of incident diabetes using multivariate Cox analysis. During 11623 person-years there were 101 case of incident diabetes. Subjects with high TyG index had a high risk of diabetes. For TyG index quartiles, hazard ratios (HRs) of quartiles 3 and 4 were 4.06 (p = 0.033) and 5.65 (p = 0.006) respectively. When the subjects were divided by obesity status and cutoff value of TyG index of 8.8, the subgroups with TyG index ≥ 8.8 regardless of obesity had a significantly high risk for diabetes (HR 2.40 [p = 0.024] and 2.25 [p = 0.048]). For obesity status and metabolic health, the two metabolically unhealthy subgroups regardless of obesity had a significantly high risk for diabetes (HRs 2.54 [p = 0.024] and 2.73 [p = 0.021]). In conclusion, the TyG index measured at a single time point may be an indicator of the risk for incident diabetes. The predictive value of the TyG index was comparable to that of metabolic health.

  18. Climate Risk and Production Shocks: Using Index Insurance to Link Climate Science to Policy for Sustainable Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarney, G. R.; Osgood, D. E.

    2011-12-01

    this problem, it may be preferable to provide insurance to banks, which can average out farmer-level idiosyncratic risks. This also has the advantage of reducing transaction costs, which can be a major pressure for scaling an index insurance program. However, when there are information asymmetries impacting loan repayment, providing insurance directly to the lender may not lead to access to credit. Through a modeling exercise, we illustrate the importance of better scientific assessments of basis risk in the application of index insurance as a mechanism for obtaining farmer access to credit, the trade-offs between insuring lenders vs. farmers under differing levels of basis risk, the role of better information on climate risk in determining insurance price and access, and the key characteristics of particular farmer groups that determine the effectiveness of each strategy.

  19. Assessing risk factors for periodontitis using regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobo Pereira, J. A.; Ferreira, Maria Cristina; Oliveira, Teresa

    2013-10-01

    Multivariate statistical analysis is indispensable to assess the associations and interactions between different factors and the risk of periodontitis. Among others, regression analysis is a statistical technique widely used in healthcare to investigate and model the relationship between variables. In our work we study the impact of socio-demographic, medical and behavioral factors on periodontal health. Using regression, linear and logistic models, we can assess the relevance, as risk factors for periodontitis disease, of the following independent variables (IVs): Age, Gender, Diabetic Status, Education, Smoking status and Plaque Index. The multiple linear regression analysis model was built to evaluate the influence of IVs on mean Attachment Loss (AL). Thus, the regression coefficients along with respective p-values will be obtained as well as the respective p-values from the significance tests. The classification of a case (individual) adopted in the logistic model was the extent of the destruction of periodontal tissues defined by an Attachment Loss greater than or equal to 4 mm in 25% (AL≥4mm/≥25%) of sites surveyed. The association measures include the Odds Ratios together with the correspondent 95% confidence intervals.

  20. Body mass index and risk for mental stress induced ischemia in coronary artery disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soufer, Robert; Fernandez, Antonio B; Meadows, Judith; Collins, Dorothea; Burg, Matthew M

    2016-05-19

    Acute emotionally reactive mental stress (MS) can provoke prognostically relevant deficits in cardiac function and myocardial perfusion, and chronic inflammation increases risk for this ischemic phenomenon. We have described parasympathetic withdrawal and generation of inflammatory factors in MS. Adiposity is also associated with elevated markers of chronic inflammation. High body mass index (BMI) is frequently used as a surrogate for assessment of excess adiposity, and associated with traditional CAD risk factors, and CAD mortality. BMI is also associated with autonomic dysregulation, adipose tissue derived proinflammatory cytokines, which are also attendant to emotion provoked myocardial ischemia. Thus, we sought to determine if body mass index (BMI) contributes to risk of developing myocardial ischemia provoked by mental stress. We performed a prospective interventional study in a cohort of 161 patients with stable CAD. They completed an assessment of myocardial blood flow with single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) simultaneously during 2 conditions: laboratory mental stress and at rest. Multivariate logistic regression determined the independent contribution of BMI to the occurrence of mental-stress induced ischemia. Mean age was 65.6±9.0 years; 87.0% had a history of hypertension, and 28.6% had diabetes. Mean BMI was 30.4±4.7. Prevalence of mental stress ischemia was 39.8%. BMI was an independent predictor of mental stress ischemia, OR=1.10, 95% CI [1.01-1.18] for one-point increase in BMI and OR=1.53, 95% CI [1.06-2.21] for a 4.7 point increase in BMI (one standard deviation beyond the cohort BMI mean), p=0.025 for all. These data suggest that BMI may serve as an independent risk marker for mental stress ischemia. The factors attendant with greater BMI, which include autonomic dysregulation and inflammation, may represent pathways by which high BMI contribute to this risk and serve as a conceptual construct to replicate these findings in larger

  1. ASSESSMENT OF PHYSICAL SKILLS TO THE STUDENT FITNESS INDEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratko Pavlović

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available A very common way of assessing the state of physical abilities is to determine on the basis of diagnostic tests, and they give us the necessary information when it comes to general skills defined population. This evaluation is usually performed diagnostic tests in the laboratory. However, reliable data are available on the performance of some field tests. Depending on field conditions, very often is done using estimates of general ability test, 2km walking UKK. To perform this test shall include data on body height, weight, BMI-in, values, heart rate, time walking. Based on the formula and application of these data are obtained fitness value of the index by which to define the overall physical condition of patients. Also based on the formula to obtain indicators on maximum oxygen consumption. The study comprised third-year students East Sarajevo, who held classes in subjects walking sports athletics, in order to determine their state of physical fitness index based on fitness.

  2. Systematic assessment of benefits and risks: study protocol for a multi-criteria decision analysis using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for comparative effectiveness research [v1; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/1fk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nisa M Maruthur

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Regulatory decision-making involves assessment of risks and benefits of medications at the time of approval or when relevant safety concerns arise with a medication. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP facilitates decision-making in complex situations involving tradeoffs by considering risks and benefits of alternatives. The AHP allows a more structured method of synthesizing and understanding evidence in the context of importance assigned to outcomes. Our objective is to evaluate the use of an AHP in a simulated committee setting selecting oral medications for type 2 diabetes.  Methods: This study protocol describes the AHP in five sequential steps using a small group of diabetes experts representing various clinical disciplines. The first step will involve defining the goal of the decision and developing the AHP model. In the next step, we will collect information about how well alternatives are expected to fulfill the decision criteria. In the third step, we will compare the ability of the alternatives to fulfill the criteria and judge the importance of eight criteria relative to the decision goal of the optimal medication choice for type 2 diabetes. We will use pairwise comparisons to sequentially compare the pairs of alternative options regarding their ability to fulfill the criteria. In the fourth step, the scales created in the third step will be combined to create a summary score indicating how well the alternatives met the decision goal. The resulting scores will be expressed as percentages and will indicate the alternative medications' relative abilities to fulfill the decision goal. The fifth step will consist of sensitivity analyses to explore the effects of changing the estimates. We will also conduct a cognitive interview and process evaluation.  Discussion: Multi-criteria decision analysis using the AHP will aid, support and enhance the ability of decision makers to make evidence-based informed decisions consistent

  3. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  4. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  5. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  6. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  7. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  8. Development of risk assessment tool for foundry workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, G Madhan; Prasad, P S S; Mokkapati, Anil Kumar; Venkataraman, G

    2008-01-01

    Occupational ill-health and work-related disorders are predominant in manufacturing industries due to the inevitable presence of manual work even after several waves of industrial automation and technological advancements. Ergonomic risk factors and musculoskeletal disorders like low-back symptoms have been noted amongst foundry workers. The purpose of this study was to formulate and develop a Physical Effort Index to assess risk factor. The questionnaire tool applicable to foundry environment has been designed and validated. The data recorded through survey across the foundries has been subjected to regression analysis to correlate between proposed physical effort index and the standard Borg's Ratings of Perceived Exertion (RPE) scale. The physical efforts of sixty seven workers in various foundry shop floors were assessed subjectively. The 'Job factors' and 'Work environment' were the two major parameters considered in assessing the worker discomfort level at workplace. A relation between Borg's RPE scale and the above two parameters were arrived at, through regression analysis. The study demonstrates the prevalence of risk factors amongst foundry workers and the effectiveness of the proposed index in estimating the risk factor levels. RELEVANCE TO THE INDUSTRY: The proposed tool will assist foundry supervisors and managers to assess the risk factors and helps in better understanding of the workplace to avoid work-related disorders, ensuring better output.

  9. The Skew Risk Premium in the Equity Index Market

    OpenAIRE

    Roman Kozhan; Anthony Neuberger; Paul Schneider

    2013-01-01

    We develop a new method for measuring moment risk premiums. We find that the skew premium accounts for over 40% of the slope in the implied volatility curve in the S&P 500 market. Skew risk is tightly related to variance risk, in the sense that strategies designed to capture the one and hedge out exposure to the other earn an insignificant risk premium. This provides a new testable restriction for asset pricing models trying to capture, in particular, disaster risk premiums. We base our resul...

  10. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  11. Modeling of Ship Collision Risk Index Based on Complex Plane and Its Realization

    OpenAIRE

    Xiaoqin Xu; Xiaoqiao Geng; Yuanqiao Wen

    2016-01-01

    Ship collision risk index is the basic and important concept in the domain of ship collision avoidance. In this paper, the advantages and deficiencies of the various calculation methods of ship collision risk index are pointed out. Then the ship collision risk model based on complex plane, which can well make up for the deficiencies of the widely-used evaluation model proposed by Kearon.J and Liu ruru is proposed. On this basis, the calculation method of collision risk index under the encount...

  12. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  13. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  14. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  15. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  16. Air quality trends and potential health effects - Development of an aggregate risk index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, Pierre; Lesne, Olivia; Alexandre, Nicolas; Mangin, Antoine; Collomp, Rémy

    2011-02-01

    The "Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur" (PACA) region, in the South East of France, is one of Europe's regions most influenced by the atmospheric pollution. During the last 15 years, the industrial emissions decrease caused an evolution of the atmospheric pollution nature. Nowadays, atmospheric pollution is more and more influenced by the road traffic, the dominating pollution source in urban zones for the PACA region. Combined with this intense road traffic, the strong hot season of the Mediterranean climate contributes to the region bad air quality; it is known to be one of the worse in Europe. The recognized air pollution effects over public health include increased risk of hospital admissions and mortality by respiratory or cardiovascular diseases. The combination of these serious pollution related health hazards with senior and children vulnerabilities leads to serious sanitary concerns. Over the 1990-2005 period, we obtained, using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test from annual mortality dataset (CépiDC), decreasing trends for Asthma (-5.00% year -1), Cardiovascular (-0.73% year -1), Ischemic (-0.69% year -1) and cerebrovascular diseases (-3.10% year -1). However, for "Other heart diseases" (+0.10% year -1) and "Respiratory" (+0.10% year -1) an increase was observed. The development of an adequate tool to understand impacts of pollution levels is of utmost importance. Different pollutants have different health endpoints, information may be lost through the use of a single index consequently, in this study we present the modified formula of air quality index, based on Cairncross's concept the Aggregate Risk Index (ARI). ARI is based on the relative risk of the well-established increased daily mortality, or morbidity, enabling an assessment of additive effects of short-term exposure to the main air pollutants: PM 2.5, PM 10, SO 2, O 3 and NO 2 in order to account for the reality of the multiple exposures impacts of chemical agents. The ARI, developed per pathology

  17. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  18. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  19. Evaluation of a risk index for advanced proximal neoplasia of the colon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruco, Arlinda; Stock, David; Hilsden, Robert J; McGregor, S Elizabeth; Paszat, Lawrence F; Saskin, Refik; Rabeneck, Linda

    2015-01-01

    A clinical risk index that uses distal colorectal findings at flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS) in conjunction with easily determined risk factors for advanced proximal neoplasia (APN) may be useful for tailoring or prioritizing screening with colonoscopy. To conduct an external evaluation of a previously published risk index in a large, well-characterized cohort. Cross-sectional. Teaching hospital and colorectal cancer screening center. A total of 5139 asymptomatic persons aged 50 to 74 (54.9% women) with a mean age (±SD) of 58.3 (±6.2) years. Between 2003 and 2011, all participants underwent a complete screening colonoscopy and removal of all polyps. Participants were classified as low, intermediate, or high risk for APN, based on their composite risk index scores. The concordance or c-statistic was used to measure discriminating ability of the risk index. A total of 167 persons (3.2%) had APN. The prevalence of those with APN among low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories was 2.1%, 2.9%, and 6.5%, respectively. High-risk individuals were 3.2 times more likely to have APN compared with those in the low-risk category. The index did not discriminate well between those in the low- and intermediate-risk categories. The c-statistic for the overall index was 0.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.66). Distal colorectal findings were derived from colonoscopies and not FS itself. The risk index discriminated between those at low risk and those at high risk, but it had limited ability to discriminate between low- and intermediate-risk categories for prevalent APN. Information on other risk factors may be needed to tailor, or prioritize, access to screening colonoscopy. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Individual and shared effects of social environment and polygenic risk scores on adolescent body mass index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Jonathan R I; Krapohl, Eva; Eley, Thalia C; Breen, Gerome

    2018-04-20

    Juvenile obesity is associated with adverse health outcomes. Understanding genetic and environmental influences on body mass index (BMI) during adolescence could inform interventions. We investigated independent and interactive effects of parenting, socioeconomic status (SES) and polygenic risk on BMI pre-adolescence, and on the rate of change in BMI across adolescence. Genome-wide genotype data, BMI and child perceptions of parental warmth and punitive discipline were available at 11 years old, and parental SES was available from birth on 3,414 unrelated participants. Linear models were used to test the effects of social environment and polygenic risk on pre-adolescent BMI. Change in BMI across adolescence was assessed in a subset (N = 1943). Sex-specific effects were assessed. Higher genetic risk was associated with increased BMI pre-adolescence and across adolescence (p parenting was not significantly associated with either phenotype, but lower SES was associated with increased BMI pre-adolescence. No interactions passed correction for multiple testing. Polygenic risk scores from adult GWAS meta-analyses are associated with BMI in juveniles, suggesting a stable genetic component. Pre-adolescent BMI was associated with social environment, but parental style has, at most, a small effect.

  1. The grazing index method of range condition assessment | du Toit ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Owing to the difficulty of examining succession theory in the Karoo, it is suggested the ecological index method (EIM), be replaced by the grazing index method (GIM), through the introduction of grazing index values (GIV) for Karoo plant species. The GIM may provide more acceptable range condition scores and more ...

  2. Prostate Health Index improves multivariable risk prediction of aggressive prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeb, Stacy; Shin, Sanghyuk S; Broyles, Dennis L; Wei, John T; Sanda, Martin; Klee, George; Partin, Alan W; Sokoll, Lori; Chan, Daniel W; Bangma, Chris H; van Schaik, Ron H N; Slawin, Kevin M; Marks, Leonard S; Catalona, William J

    2017-07-01

    To examine the use of the Prostate Health Index (PHI) as a continuous variable in multivariable risk assessment for aggressive prostate cancer in a large multicentre US study. The study population included 728 men, with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels of 2-10 ng/mL and a negative digital rectal examination, enrolled in a prospective, multi-site early detection trial. The primary endpoint was aggressive prostate cancer, defined as biopsy Gleason score ≥7. First, we evaluated whether the addition of PHI improves the performance of currently available risk calculators (the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial [PCPT] and European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer [ERSPC] risk calculators). We also designed and internally validated a new PHI-based multivariable predictive model, and created a nomogram. Of 728 men undergoing biopsy, 118 (16.2%) had aggressive prostate cancer. The PHI predicted the risk of aggressive prostate cancer across the spectrum of values. Adding PHI significantly improved the predictive accuracy of the PCPT and ERSPC risk calculators for aggressive disease. A new model was created using age, previous biopsy, prostate volume, PSA and PHI, with an area under the curve of 0.746. The bootstrap-corrected model showed good calibration with observed risk for aggressive prostate cancer and had net benefit on decision-curve analysis. Using PHI as part of multivariable risk assessment leads to a significant improvement in the detection of aggressive prostate cancer, potentially reducing harms from unnecessary prostate biopsy and overdiagnosis. © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Obesity-risk behaviours and their associations with body mass index (BMI) in Korean American children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Myoungock; Grey, Margaret; Sadler, Lois; Jeon, Sangchoon; Nam, Soohyun; Song, Hee-Jung; Whittemore, Robin

    2017-08-03

    To describe obesity-risk behaviours (diet, physical activity and sedentary behaviour) and examine the relationships of the obesity-risk behaviours with body mass index (BMI) in school-aged Korean American children. Korean American children have a risk of becoming overweight or obese and developing obesity-related complications; however, there is limited research about obesity-risk behaviours in Korean American children. A cross-sectional study. Obesity-risk behaviours of children were assessed with well-validated self-report questionnaires (i.e., Elementary-level School-based Nutrition Monitoring Questionnaire) from children and their mothers. Height and weight of children were measured. Data were analysed with bivariate and multivariate analyses using mixed effects models to incorporate the correlation within siblings. A total of 170 Korean American children (mean age 10.9 [2.0] years; 52.4% girls; mean BMI 19.3 [3.2]; 28.7% ≥85 percentiles) participated in the study. Only 38.3% of Korean American children met established recommendations of five fruits/vegetables per day; 56.5% met recommendations for more than 3 days per week of vigorous physical activity; and 40.8% met recommendations for obesity in Korean American children and initiate clinical interventions to improve obesity-risk behaviours, especially sedentary behaviour, in Korean American children. Clinical assessment and management of the risk of developing overweight and obesity as well as obesity-related behaviours are important to improve obesity-related complications in overall Korean Americans. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. A high dietary glycemic index increases total mortality in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itandehui Castro-Quezada

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Different types of carbohydrates have diverse glycemic response, thus glycemic index (GI and glycemic load (GL are used to assess this variation. The impact of dietary GI and GL in all-cause mortality is unknown. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between dietary GI and GL and risk of all-cause mortality in the PREDIMED study. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The PREDIMED study is a randomized nutritional intervention trial for primary cardiovascular prevention based on community-dwelling men and women at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Dietary information was collected at baseline and yearly using a validated 137-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ. We assigned GI values of each item by a 5-step methodology, using the International Tables of GI and GL Values. Deaths were ascertained through contact with families and general practitioners, review of medical records and consultation of the National Death Index. Cox regression models were used to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR and their 95% CI for mortality, according to quartiles of energy-adjusted dietary GI/GL. To assess repeated measures of exposure, we updated GI and GL intakes from the yearly FFQs and used Cox models with time-dependent exposures. RESULTS: We followed 3,583 non-diabetic subjects (4.7 years of follow-up, 123 deaths. As compared to participants in the lowest quartile of baseline dietary GI, those in the highest quartile showed an increased risk of all-cause mortality [HR = 2.15 (95% CI: 1.15-4.04; P for trend  = 0.012]. In the repeated-measures analyses using as exposure the yearly updated information on GI, we observed a similar association. Dietary GL was associated with all-cause mortality only when subjects were younger than 75 years. CONCLUSIONS: High dietary GI was positively associated with all-cause mortality in elderly population at high cardiovascular risk.

  5. Development of a brief parent-report risk index for children following parental divorce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tein, Jenn-Yun; Sandler, Irwin N; Braver, Sanford L; Wolchik, Sharlene A

    2013-12-01

    This article reports on the development of a brief 15-item parent-report risk index (Child Risk Index for Divorced or Separated Families; CRI-DS) to predict problem outcomes of children who have experienced parental divorce. A series of analyses using 3 data sets were conducted that identified and cross-validated a parsimonious set of items representing parent report of child behavior problems and family level risk and protective factors, each of which contributed to the predictive accuracy of the index. The index predicted child behavior outcomes and substance abuse problems up to 6 years later. The index has acceptable levels of sensitivity and specificity as a screening measure to predict problem outcomes up to 1 year later. The use of the index to identify the need for preventive services is discussed, along with limitations of the study.

  6. Applying weather index insurance to agricultural pest and disease risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norton, Michael; Sprundel, van Gert Jan; Turvey, Calum G.; Meuwissen, Miranda P.M.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we explore the application of weather index insurance to plant pest and disease management strategies using two distinct models: (1) insuring crop loss due to disease incidence (“Crop Insurance”) and (2) insuring the use of pesticides (“Pesticide Insurance”). We find that despite

  7. Cameriere's third molar maturity index in assessing age of majority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galić, Ivan; Lauc, Tomislav; Brkić, Hrvoje; Vodanović, Marin; Galić, Elizabeta; Biazevic, Maria Gabriela Haye; Brakus, Ivan; Badrov, Jozo; Cameriere, Roberto

    2015-07-01

    Estimation of chronological age of an individual is one of the main challenges in forensic science. Legally to be able to treat a person as a minor or an adult, it is necessary to determine whether their age of majority (if they are older or younger than 18, in most countries). Methods for estimating age are especially important when an individual in question lacks personal documents or other means of identification. As the dental age differs in various populations, the aim of this study was to evaluate applicability of third molar method for assessing age of majority in Croatia. Cameriere's third molar maturity index (I3M) value of 0.08, measured by the open apices of the teeth, was verified in sample of 1336 panoramic images aged between 14 and 23 years. Chronological age gradually decreased as I3M increased in both genders. Males showed statistically significant advanced maturation when I3M was between 0.0 and 0.3 value. The results indicate that the sensitivity of the test for 0.08 value was 84.3% (95%CI 80.6%, 87.5%) for females and 91.2% (95%CI 88.7%, 93.1) for males. Specificity was 95.4% (95%CI 92.5%, 97.5%) and 91.9% (95%CI 88.8%, 94.3%). The proportions of accurately classified males were 88.8% and that of females 91.5%. The estimated post-test probabilities, of individuals, in other word the probability that a Croatian individual with an I3Mthird molar maturity index should be used as a determinant of the age of majority in Croatia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Interpreting weightings of the peer assessment rating index and the discrepancy index across contexts on Chinese patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Siqi; Oh, Heesoo; Chambers, David William; Xu, Tianmin; Baumrind, Sheldon

    2018-04-06

    Determine optimal weightings of Peer Assessment Rating (PAR) index and Discrepancy Index (DI) for malocclusion severity assessment in Chinese orthodontic patients. Sixty-nine Chinese orthodontists assessed a full set of pre-treatment records from a stratified random sample of 120 subjects gathered from six university orthodontic centres. Using professional judgment as the outcome variable, multiple regression analyses were performed to derive customized weighting systems for the PAR index and DI, for all subjects and each Angle classification subgroup. Professional judgment was consistent, with an Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) of 0.995. The PAR index or DI can be reliably measured, with ICC = 0.959 and 0.990, respectively. The predictive accuracy of PAR index was greatly improved by the Chinese weighting process (from r = 0.431 to r = 0.788) with almost equal distribution in each Angle classification subgroup. The Chinese-weighted DI showed a higher predictive accuracy, at P = 0.01, compared with the PAR index (r = 0.851 versus r = 0.788). A better performance was found in the Class II group (r = 0.890) when compared to Class I (r = 0.736) and III (r = 0.785) groups. The Chinese-weighted PAR index and DI were capable of predicting 62 per cent and 73 per cent of total variance in the professional judgment of malocclusion severity in Chinese patients. Differential prediction across Angle classifications merits attention since different weighting formulas were found.

  9. Assessing the physical vulnerability of check dams through an empirical damage index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Dell'Agnese

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive analysis of flood risk in mountain streams has to include an assessment of the vulnerability of the protection systems, in addition to an assessment of the vulnerability of the constructed environment on alluvial fans and floodplains. Structures forming the protection systems are of a dual nature, i.e. they are designed to mitigate natural process-related hazards and, on the other hand, are prone to be damaged during their lifecycle by the same processes they should mitigate. Therefore, their effectiveness declines over time. Hence, the knowledge of how effectively control structures perform is essential for risk management. A procedure was developed to assess the physical vulnerability of check dams based on empirical evidence collected in South Tyrol, Northern Italy. A damage index defined on pre- and postevent comparisons of check dam conditions was evaluated for 362 structures in 18 mountain streams along with the relevant processes and the structural characteristics affecting it. Although the available dataset did not allow conclusive functional relationships between damage index and impact variables to be established, it was possible to assess the average expected residual functionality of check dams according to structure characteristics, and event type and intensity. These results may help plan appropriate check dam maintenance.

  10. Building a Natural Disaster Risk Index for Supply Chain Operations

    OpenAIRE

    Kun Liao; Ozden Bayazit; Fang Wang

    2014-01-01

    Risk for an organization is associated with uncertainties in all areas of its operations. As firms move toward global sourcing, supply chain risk increases dramatically, which is linked to lower financial performance and market value. One major type of supply chain risk is disruptions caused by natural or man-made disasters. In this paper, major factors causing supply chain disruptions are identified based on resource dependency theory and contingency theory. As a result of the study, a compr...

  11. Indexed

    CERN Document Server

    Hagy, Jessica

    2008-01-01

    Jessica Hagy is a different kind of thinker. She has an astonishing talent for visualizing relationships, capturing in pictures what is difficult for most of us to express in words. At indexed.blogspot.com, she posts charts, graphs, and Venn diagrams drawn on index cards that reveal in a simple and intuitive way the large and small truths of modern life. Praised throughout the blogosphere as “brilliant,” “incredibly creative,” and “comic genius,” Jessica turns her incisive, deadpan sense of humor on everything from office politics to relationships to religion. With new material along with some of Jessica’s greatest hits, this utterly unique book will thrill readers who demand humor that makes them both laugh and think.

  12. Idiosyncratic risk in the Dow Jones Eurostoxx50 Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Kevin; Vo, Vinh

    2008-07-01

    Recent evidence by Campbell et al. [J.Y. Campbell, M. Lettau B.G. Malkiel, Y. Xu, Have individual stocks become more volatile? An empirical exploration of idiosyncratic risk, The Journal of Finance (February) (2001)] shows an increase in firm-level volatility and a decline of the correlation among stock returns in the US. In relation to the Euro-Area stock markets, we find that both aggregate firm-level volatility and average stock market correlation have trended upwards. We estimate a linear model of the market risk-return relationship nested in an EGARCH(1, 1)-M model for conditional second moments. We then show that traditional estimates of the conditional risk-return relationship, that use ex-post excess-returns as the conditioning information set, lead to joint tests of the theoretical model (usually the ICAPM) and of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in its strong form. To overcome this problem we propose alternative measures of expected market risk based on implied volatility extracted from traded option prices and we discuss the conditions under which implied volatility depends solely on expected risk. We then regress market excess-returns on lagged market implied variance computed from implied market volatility to estimate the relationship between expected market excess-returns and expected market risk.We investigate whether, as predicted by the ICAPM, the expected market risk is the main factor in explaining the market risk premium and the latter is independent of aggregate idiosyncratic risk.

  13. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  14. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  15. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  16. Nutrition-related risk indexes and long-term mortality in noncritically ill inpatients who receive total parenteral nutrition (prospective multicenter study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia, María José; Ocón, Julia; Cabrejas-Gómez, Carmen; Ballesteros-Pomar, María D; Vidal-Casariego, Alfonso; Arraiza-Irigoyen, Carmen; Olivares, Josefina; Conde-García, Ma Carmen; García-Manzanares, Álvaro; Botella-Romero, Francisco; Quílez-Toboso, Rosa P; Cabrerizo, Lucio; Rubio, Miguel A; Chicharro, Luisa; Burgos, Rosa; Pujante, Pedro; Ferrer, Mercedes; Zugasti, Ana; Petrina, Estrella; Manjón, Laura; Diéguez, Marta; Carrera, Ma José; Vila-Bundo, Anna; Urgelés, Juan Ramón; Aragón-Valera, Carmen; Sánchez-Vilar, Olga; Bretón, Irene; García-Peris, Pilar; Muñoz-Garach, Araceli; Márquez, Efren; del Olmo, Dolores; Pereira, José Luis; Tous, María C; Olveira, Gabriel

    2015-10-01

    Malnutrition in hospitalized patients is associated with an increased risk of death, in both the short and the long term. The purpose of this study was to determine which nutrition-related risk index predicts long-term mortality better (three years) in patients who receive total parenteral nutrition (TPN). This prospective, multicenter study involved noncritically ill patients who were prescribed TPN during hospitalization. Data were collected on Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), body mass index, albumin and prealbumin, as well as long-term mortality. Over the 1- and 3-year follow-up periods, 174 and 244 study subjects (28.8% and 40.3%) respectively, died. Based on the Cox proportional hazards survival model, the nutrition-related risk indexes most strongly associated with mortality were SGA and albumin (Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  17. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  18. Is the Carli index flawed?: assessing the case for the new retail price index RPIJ.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levell, Peter

    2015-02-01

    The paper discusses the recent decision of the UK's Office for National Statistics to replace the controversial Carli index with the Jevons index in a new version of the retail price index-RPIJ. In doing so we make three contributions to the way that price indices should be selected for measures of consumer price inflation when quantity information is not available (i.e. at the 'elementary' level). Firstly, we introduce a new price bouncing test under the test approach for choosing index numbers. Secondly, we provide empirical evidence on the performance of the Carli and Jevons indices in different contexts under the statistical approach. Thirdly, applying something analogous to the principle of insufficient reason, we argue contrary to received wisdom in the literature, that the economic approach can be used to choose indices at the elementary level, and moreover that it favours the use of the Jevons index. Overall, we conclude that there is a case against the Carli index and that the Jevons index is to be preferred.

  19. Assessing interactions between the associations of common genetic susceptibility variants, reproductive history and body mass index with breast cancer risk in the breast cancer association consortium: a combined case-control study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milne, Roger L; Gaudet, Mia M; Spurdle, Amanda B

    2010-01-01

    Several common breast cancer genetic susceptibility variants have recently been identified. We aimed to determine how these variants combine with a subset of other known risk factors to influence breast cancer risk in white women of European ancestry using case-control studies participating in th...

  20. Assessing interactions between the associations of common genetic susceptibility variants, reproductive history and body mass index with breast cancer risk in the breast cancer association consortium: a combined case-control study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milne, Roger L; Gaudet, Mia M; Spurdle, Amanda B

    2010-01-01

    Several common breast cancer genetic susceptibility variants have recently been identified. We aimed to determine how these variants combine with a subset of other known risk factors to influence breast cancer risk in white women of European ancestry using case-control studies participating...

  1. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  2. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  3. Sleep duration and cancer risk: time to use a "sleep-years" index?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erren, Thomas C

    2012-09-01

    With a focus on melatonin, a recent paper in the Journal investigated the hypothesis that endometrial cancer might be associated with the duration, and ultimately, amount of sleep. The authors found that "[s]elf-reported sleep duration may not adequately represent melatonin levels." The authors also concluded that there was "weak evidence of an association between sleep duration and endometrial cancer risk." Overall, these are interesting observations because primarily experimental and mechanistic research from many angles supports the study's notion that inappropriate sleep may be a determinant of cancer risk. To find out whether this is so in man, rather than assigning study individuals to fixed or average "baseline sleep categories" i.e., ≤5, 6, 7, 8, ≥9 h of habitual sleep in the present study, the accumulated amount of sleep over decades should be reconstructed in retrospective or constructed in prospective studies. To achieve this end, future epidemiological studies may want to use a sleep-years index [SYI]. This simple exposure parameter promises to be a sensible, feasible, and affordable way to approximate cumulative time spent at sleep in critical time windows over many years which we should expect to be relevant for the development of cancer. The SYI could be tested and used in observational studies which promise to be comparable and can be merged. This commentary provides roots of the index and explains why and how it should be used and how it could be interpreted in rigorous studies of biologically plausible links between sleep, on the one hand, and the development of internal cancers, on the other. This commentary also points out limitations of interpreting the SYI. It is emphasized that, where possible, the SYI should be assessed independently of (a) other sleep facets--such as quality--and of (b) known or suspected cancer risk factors. The respective contribution of (a) and (b) to risk must then be assessed during the analyses. Overall, the

  4. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  5. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  6. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  7. Graphical Methodology of Global Pollution Index for the Environmental Impact Assessment Using Two Environmental Components

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corneliu Cojocaru

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the applied methods for environmental impact assessment is the index of global pollution (IGP proposed by Rojanschi in 1991. This methodology enables the global estimation for the ecosystem state affected more or less by human activities. Unfortunately, Rojanschi’s method has a limitation; it can be applied only if at least three environmental components are considered. Frequently, many environmental impact assessment applications rely on analysis of only two environmental components. Therefore, this work aimed to develop a new graphical method to extend Rojanschi’s approach for the case of two environmental components. The proposed method avoids the average value of evaluation grades and uses only the graphical correspondence for calculation of the index of global pollution. A right-angle triangle graph methodology was proposed, where bases represented the values of evaluation grades. Thus, for the case of two environmental components, the index of global pollution was calculated as the relation between the ideal and real ecosystem states represented by the ratio between areas of external and enclosed right triangles. The developed graphical method was tested and validated for real case studies: the environmental impact assessment from a refinery located on the Romanian Black Sea Coast considering Air and Water environmental components and from a coal-fired thermoelectric power plant from Eastern Romania regarding Air and Soil environmental components. In this way, it was provided a reliable and faster tool to be used for the pollution characterization of human-derived chemicals for better decisions in risk management.

  8. Modeling of Ship Collision Risk Index Based on Complex Plane and Its Realization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqin Xu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Ship collision risk index is the basic and important concept in the domain of ship collision avoidance. In this paper, the advantages and deficiencies of the various calculation methods of ship collision risk index are pointed out. Then the ship collision risk model based on complex plane, which can well make up for the deficiencies of the widely-used evaluation model proposed by Kearon.J and Liu ruru is proposed. On this basis, the calculation method of collision risk index under the encountering situation of multi-ships is constructed, then the three-dimensional image and spatial curve of the risk index are figured out. Finally, single chip microcomputer is used to realize the model. And attaching this single chip microcomputer to ARPA is helpful to the decision-making of the marine navigators.

  9. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  10. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  11. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  12. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  13. Assessment of clay stiffness and strength parameters using index properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed M. Ahmed

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available A new approach is developed to determine the shear wave velocity in saturated soft to firm clays using measurements of the liquid limit, plastic limit, and natural water content with depth. The shear wave velocity is assessed using the site-specific variation of the natural water content with the effective mean stress. Subsequently, an iterative process is envisaged to obtain the clay stiffness and strength parameters. The at-rest earth pressure coefficient, as well as bearing capacity factor and rigidity index related to the cone penetration test, is also acquired from the analyses. Comparisons are presented between the measured clay parameters and the results of corresponding analyses in five different case studies. It is demonstrated that the presented approach can provide acceptable estimates of saturated clay stiffness and strength parameters. One of the main privileges of the presented methodology is the site-specific procedure developed based on the relationships between clay strength and stiffness parameters, rather than adopting direct correlations. Despite of the utilized iterative processes, the presented approach can be easily implemented using a simple spreadsheet, benefiting both geotechnical researchers and practitioners. Keywords: Soft to firm clays, Atterberg limits, Shear wave velocity, Small-strain shear modulus, Constrained modulus, Undrained shear strength, Effective friction angle, Cone penetration test

  14. El Niño-Southern Oscillation-based index insurance for floods: Statistical risk analyses and application to Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Abedalrazq F.; Kwon, Hyun-Han; Lall, Upmanu; Miranda, Mario J.; Skees, Jerry

    2007-10-01

    Index insurance has recently been advocated as a useful risk transfer tool for disaster management situations where rapid fiscal relief is desirable and where estimating insured losses may be difficult, time consuming, or subject to manipulation and falsification. For climate-related hazards, a rainfall or temperature index may be proposed. However, rainfall may be highly spatially variable relative to the gauge network, and in many locations, data are inadequate to develop an index because of short time series and the spatial dispersion of stations. In such cases, it may be helpful to consider a climate proxy index as a regional rainfall index. This is particularly useful if a long record is available for the climate index through an independent source and it is well correlated with the regional rainfall hazard. Here El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate indices are explored for use as a proxy to extreme rainfall in one of the districts of Peru, Piura. The ENSO index insurance product may be purchased by banks or microfinance institutions to aid agricultural damage relief in Peru. Crop losses in the region are highly correlated with floods but are difficult to assess directly. Beyond agriculture, many other sectors suffer as well. Basic infrastructure is destroyed during the most severe events. This disrupts trade for many microenterprises. The reliability and quality of the local rainfall data are variable. Averaging the financial risk across the region is desirable. Some issues with the implementation of the proxy ENSO index are identified and discussed. Specifically, we explore (1) the reliability of the index at different levels of probability of exceedance of maximum seasonal rainfall, (2) the effect of sampling uncertainties and the strength of the proxy's association to local outcome, (3) the potential for clustering of payoffs, (4) the potential that the index could be predicted with some lead time prior to the flood season, and (5) evidence

  15. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  16. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  17. Improving index mutual fund risk perception : Increase financial literacy or communicate better?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Goeij, Peter; Van Campenhout, Geert; Subotic, Marjana

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the effect of financial literacy and index mutual fund risk disclosure format on investors’ risk perception by examining the risk disclosure part in the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) for UCITS funds in Europe. Using an experimental survey administered to 244 university

  18. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  19. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  20. Spontaneous baroreflex sensitivity: toward an ideal index of cardiovascular risk in hypertension?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lantelme, Pierre; Khettab, Fouad; Custaud, Marc-Antoine; Rial, Marie-Odile; Joanny, Christiane; Gharib, Claude; Milon, Hugues

    2002-05-01

    Estimating the risk entailed by classical risk factors like blood pressure (BP) or serum cholesterol may be difficult because of their variability and the often unknown duration of exposure. Having variables integrating the impact of those classical risk factors on the cardiovascular system would probably aid the prediction of cardiovascular events. The present study aimed at determining whether cardiac baroreflex sensitivity (BRS), correlates with several risk factors and thus is a good candidate for being such an integrative variable. As a comparison, left ventricular mass (LVM), pulse wave velocity (PWV), and creatinine were also tested for association with risk factors. A total of 302 subjects referred for hypertension, were considered. They had a 24-h BP recording and a determination of BRS by two different methods (sequence and alpha coefficient), in two different positions (lying and standing). They were also tested for the presence of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) (by echocardiography and electrocardiogram) and had a PWV measurement. Biological testing included serum lipids, blood glucose, creatinine, proteinuria and urinary excretion of microalbumin. There was a strong correlation between the two methods of BRS measurement in each position (P < 0.001). BRS determined by the sequence method in the lying position was correlated significantly and independently with age, 24-h systolic BP, heart rate, and serum cholesterol with P values < 0.001, < 0.001, < 0.01, and < 0.05, respectively. In an univariate analysis, BRS was also correlated with echocardiographic LVM index (r = -0.21, P < 0.05) and PWV (r = -0.27, P < 0.001), which possibly reflects its dependence on both vascular and cardiac damages. The present study supports the hypothesis that BRS could encompass the impact over time of several risk factors on the cardiovascular system. Thus, it may constitute a valuable parameter in assessing more precisely the risk of cardiovascular events.

  1. Cost per severe accident as an index for severe accident consequence assessment and its applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Kampanart; Ishiwatari, Yuki; Takahara, Shogo

    2014-01-01

    The Fukushima Accident emphasizes the need to integrate the assessments of health effects, economic impacts, social impacts and environmental impacts, in order to perform a comprehensive consequence assessment of severe accidents in nuclear power plants. “Cost per severe accident” is introduced as an index for that purpose. The calculation methodology, including the consequence analysis using level 3 probabilistic risk assessment code OSCAAR and the calculation method of the cost per severe accident, is proposed. This methodology was applied to a virtual 1,100 MWe boiling water reactor. The breakdown of the cost per severe accident was provided. The radiation effect cost, the relocation cost and the decontamination cost were the three largest components. Sensitivity analyses were carried out, and parameters sensitive to cost per severe accident were specified. The cost per severe accident was compared with the amount of source terms, to demonstrate the performance of the cost per severe accident as an index to evaluate severe accident consequences. The ways to use the cost per severe accident for optimization of radiation protection countermeasures and for estimation of the effects of accident management strategies are discussed as its applications. - Highlights: • Cost per severe accident is used for severe accident consequence assessment. • Assessments of health, economic, social and environmental impacts are included. • Radiation effect, relocation and decontamination costs are important cost components. • Cost per severe accident can be used to optimize radiation protection measures. • Effects of accident management can be estimated using the cost per severe accident

  2. Assessing the risks of nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, Nigel

    1986-01-01

    The question how safe is safe is discussed. The way in which nuclear energy is presented in the context of the risks inherent in daily life is considered. Calculations based on actual reactor accidents (not Chernobyl) are then extrapolated for the proposed Sizewell-B reactor. Comparison is made between the risks of the nuclear industry and coal mining. Risk perception is considered and a risk index is constructed that allows for the fact that nuclear power continues to arouse public fear in spite of a good safety record. (UK)

  3. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  4. Childhood body mass index in relation to future risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cook, M B; Freedman, N D; Gamborg, M

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Middle-aged obese adults are at substantially elevated risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. It is unclear whether this risk originates earlier in life. METHODS: We assessed associations between childhood body mass index (BMI) and height-measured annually between ages 7 and 13-with adult....... RESULTS: During 5.4 million person-years of follow-up, 254 (216 males) incident oesophageal adenocarcinomas occurred. At each examined age, cancer risk increased linearly per unit BMI z-score, although associations were only statistically significant for ages 9-13. The HR for the age of 13 years was 1.......31 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.51) per unit BMI z-score. Associations were similar in men and women and across birth cohorts. Childhood height was not related to cancer risk in men but was in women, although these analyses included just 38 female cases. HRs per unit height z-score at the age of 13 years were 1...

  5. Definition and GIS-based characterization of an integral risk index applied to a chemical/petrochemical area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadal, Martí; Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

    2006-08-01

    A risk map of the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain) was designed following a two-stage procedure. The first step was the creation of a ranking system (Hazard Index) for a number of different inorganic and organic pollutants: heavy metals, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by applying self-organizing maps (SOM) to persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity properties of the chemicals. PCBs seemed to be the most hazardous compounds, while the light PAHs showed the minimum values. Subsequently, an Integral Risk Index was developed taking into account the Hazard Index and the concentrations of all pollutants in soil samples collected in the assessed area of Tarragona. Finally, a risk map was elaborated by representing the spatial distribution of the Integral Risk Index with a geographic information system (GIS). The results of the present study seem to indicate that the development of an integral risk map might be useful to help in making-decision processes concerning environmental pollutants.

  6. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  7. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  8. Body mass index influences prostate cancer risk at biopsy in Japanese men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Hitoshi; Kagawa, Makoto; Kawakami, Satoru; Numao, Noboru; Matsuoka, Yoh; Yokoyama, Minato; Yamamoto, Shinya; Yonese, Junji; Fukui, Iwao; Kihara, Kazunori

    2013-07-01

    To determine the relationship between body mass index and prostate cancer risk at biopsy in Japanese men, and to compared the risk with that of Caucasian men. We retrospectively evaluated 3966 men with prostate-specific antigen levels from 2.5 to 19.9 ng/mL who underwent an initial extended prostate biopsy. Using logistic regression, odds ratios of each body mass index category for risk of prostate cancer and high-grade disease (Gleason score ≥4 + 3) were estimated after controlling for age, prostate-specific antigen, %free prostate-specific antigen, prostate volume, digital rectal examination findings, family history of prostate cancer and the number of biopsy cores. Patients were divided into six categories according to their body mass index (kg/m(2) ) as follows: body mass index and prostate cancer risk at biopsy, with an increased risk observed in men whose body mass index was ≥27.0 compared with the reference group. A significantly increased risk starting at body mass index ≥25.0 was found in high-grade disease. In contrast to our results, there has been no reported increase in the risk of prostate cancer at biopsy in Caucasians within the overweight range (body mass index of 25.0-29.9 based on World Health Organization classification). Japanese men within the overweight body mass index range who have an elevated prostate-specific antigen level also have a significant risk of harboring prostate cancer, especially high-grade disease. Overweight Japanese might be at greater prostate cancer risk at biopsy than overweight Caucasians. © 2012 The Japanese Urological Association.

  9. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  10. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  11. Assessment of Postural Load Index Using LUBA Method and the Prevalence of Musculoskeletal Disorders in Dentists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeinab Baroonyzade

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives : High prevalence of musculoskeletal pain in dentistry represents the importance of investigation of working conditions in this profession to reduce musculoskeletal disorders.The purpose of this study was to determine the postural load on the upper limb postural using macro LUBA technique and the prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders. Methods: This study was conducted on 30 post graduate dental students of Hamadan University of Medical Sciences . LUBA technique was used to evaluate the postural load. The Nordic questionnaire was used to assess the prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders . The results were analyzed using SPSS version 16 . Results: The prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders was as follows neck( 63.3%, back ( 43.3%, back ( 30%, knee ( 20%, shoulder( 13%, wrist ( 10%, legs (10 %, elbows( 6.7% and thigh( 0%. The maximum postural load index was 23 for women and 21for men. In total, 50 % of dentists were in group 3 , 33 % of dentists in group 4 and 16.7 % in group 2 of the corrective measures . There was no significant association b etween demographic variables and presence of musculoskeletal disorders . Besides, there was no significant association between the presence of pain in upper limbs and the postural load index (Pvalue > 0.05. Conclusions: This study showed high levels of p ostural load index and musculoskeletal disorders among dental students of Hamadan University of Medical Sciences. High levels of p ostural load index indicate a high level of risk, which requires immediate corrective action and intervention.

  12. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  13. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  14. Identification of cardiometabolic risk: visceral adiposity index versus triglyceride/HDL cholesterol ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar, Martin R; Carbajal, Horacio A; Espeche, Walter G; Aizpurúa, Marcelo; Maciel, Pablo M; Reaven, Gerald M

    2014-02-01

    The plasma concentration ratio of triglyceride (TG)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) can identify cardiometabolic risk and cardiovascular disease. The visceral adiposity index is a sex-specific index, in which measurements of body mass index and waist circumference are combined with TG and HDL-C concentrations. The current analysis was initiated to see if the visceral adiposity index would improve the ability of the TG/HDL-C to identify increased cardiometabolic risk and outcome. Cardiometabolic data were obtained in 2003 from 926 apparently healthy individuals, 796 of whom were evaluated in 2012 for evidence of incident cardiovascular disease. The relationship between TG/HDL-C and values for visceral adiposity index was evaluated by Pearson's correlation coefficient. The relative risks for first cardiovascular event between individuals above and below the TG/HDL-C sex-specific cut points, and in the top quartile of visceral adiposity index versus the remaining 3 quartiles, were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. TG/HDL-C concentration and visceral adiposity index were highly correlated (r = 0.99) in both men and women. Although more men (133 vs121) and women (73 vs 59) were identified as being at "high risk" by an elevated TG/HDL-C ratio, the individual cardiometabolic risk factors were essentially identical with either index used. However, the hazard ratio of developing cardiovascular disease was significantly increased in individuals with an elevated TG/HDL-C, whereas it was not the case when the visceral adiposity index was used to define "high risk." The visceral adiposity index does not identify individuals with an adverse cardiometabolic profile any better than the TG/HDL-C. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Waist-to-height ratio as index of cardiometabolic risk among the doctors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miliva Mozaffor

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to see the cardiometabolic risk among doctors using waist-to-height ratio index as tool. Cardiometabolic risk is an umbrella term that includes all the risk factors of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The study was conducted among 195 doctors. According to waist-to-height ratio index 167 (85.6% doctors had cardiometabolic risk. Waist-to-height ratio index was found good (area under the curve >0.5, sensitivity 88.1%, specificity 23.2%, positive predictive value 53.9%, and negative predictive value 66.7% for their predictive value of cardiometabolic risk. Age grouping was done and found that no age group was free from cardiometabolic risk.

  16. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  17. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  18. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  19. Potential Risk Estimation Drowning Index for Children (PREDIC): a pilot study from Matlab, Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borse, N N; Hyder, A A; Bishai, D; Baker, T; Arifeen, S E

    2011-11-01

    Childhood drowning is a major public health problem that has been neglected in many low- and middle-income countries. In Matlab, rural Bangladesh, more than 40% of child deaths aged 1-4 years are due to drowning. The main objective of this paper was to develop and evaluate a childhood drowning risk prediction index. A literature review was carried out to document risk factors identified for childhood drowning in Bangladesh. The Newacheck model for special health care needs for children was adapted and applied to construct a childhood drowning risk index called "Potential Risk Estimation Drowning Index for Children" (PREDIC). Finally, the proposed PREDIC Index was applied to childhood drowning deaths and compared with the comparison group from children living in Matlab, Bangladesh. This pilot study used t-tests and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve to analyze the results. The PREDIC index was applied to 302 drowning deaths and 624 children 0-4 years old living in Matlab. The results of t-test indicate that the drowned children had a statistically (t=-8.58, p=0.0001) significant higher mean PREDIC score (6.01) than those in comparison group (5.26). Drowning cases had a PREDIC score of 6 or more for 68% of the children however, the comparison group had 43% of the children with score of 6 or more which was statistically significant (t=-7.36, p<0.001). The area under the curve for the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve was 0.662. Index score construction was scientifically plausible; and the index is relatively complete, fairly accurate, and practical. The risk index can help identify and target high risk children with drowning prevention programs. PREDIC index needs to be further tested for its accuracy, feasibility and effectiveness in drowning risk reduction in Bangladesh and other countries. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Using the Steel Vessel Material-Cost Index to Mitigate Shipbuilder Risk

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Keating, Edward G; Murphy, Robert; Schank, John F; Birkler, John

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes how the US Navy structures fixed-price and fixed-price, incentive-fee shipbuilding contracts and how labor- and material-cost indexes can mitigate shipbuilder risk in either type of contract...

  1. Atherogenic Risk Assessment among Persons Living in Rural Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Wekesa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Hypertension and dyslipidemia are independent risk factors for coronary heart disease and commonly coexist. Cardiovascular risk can be reliably predicted using lipid ratios such as the atherogenic index, a useful prognostic parameter for guiding timely interventions. Objective. We assessed the cardiovascular risk profile based on the atherogenic index of residents within a rural Ugandan cohort. Methods. In 2011, a population based survey was conducted among 7507 participants. Sociodemographic characteristics, physical measurements (blood pressure, weight, height, and waist and hip circumference, and blood sampling for nonfasting lipid profile were collected for each participant. Atherogenic risk profile, defined as logarithm base ten of (triglyceride divided by high density lipoprotein cholesterol, was categorised as low risk (0.24. Results. Fifty-five percent of participants were female and the mean age was 49.9 years (SD±20.2. Forty-two percent of participants had high and intermediate atherogenic risk. Persons with hypertension, untreated HIV infection, abnormal glycaemia, and obesity and living in less urbanised villages were more at risk. Conclusion. A significant proportion of persons in this rural population are at risk of atherosclerosis. Key identified populations at risk should be considered for future intervention against cardiovascular related morbidity and mortality. The study however used parameters from unfasted samples that may have a bearing on observed results.

  2. Body adiposity index versus body mass index and other anthropometric traits as correlates of cardiometabolic risk factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlene T Lichtash

    Full Text Available The worldwide prevalence of obesity mandates a widely accessible tool to categorize adiposity that can best predict associated health risks. The body adiposity index (BAI was designed as a single equation to predict body adiposity in pooled analysis of both genders. We compared body adiposity index (BAI, body mass index (BMI, and other anthropometric measures, including percent body fat (PBF, in their correlations with cardiometabolic risk factors. We also compared BAI with BMI to determine which index is a better predictor of PBF.The cohort consisted of 698 Mexican Americans. We calculated correlations of BAI, BMI, and other anthropometric measurements (PBF measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, waist and hip circumference, height, weight with glucose homeostasis indices (including insulin sensitivity and insulin clearance from euglycemic clamp, lipid parameters, cardiovascular traits (including carotid intima-media thickness, and biomarkers (C-reactive protein, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 and adiponectin. Correlations between each anthropometric measure and cardiometabolic trait were compared in both sex-pooled and sex-stratified groups.BMI was associated with all but two measured traits (carotid intima-media thickness and fasting glucose in men, while BAI lacked association with several variables. BAI did not outperform BMI in its associations with any cardiometabolic trait. BAI was correlated more strongly than BMI with PBF in sex-pooled analyses (r = 0.78 versus r = 0.51, but not in sex-stratified analyses (men, r = 0.63 versus r = 0.79; women, r = 0.69 versus r = 0.77. Additionally, PBF showed fewer correlations with cardiometabolic risk factors than BMI. Weight was more strongly correlated than hip with many of the cardiometabolic risk factors examined.BAI is inferior to the widely used BMI as a correlate of the cardiometabolic risk factors studied. Additionally, BMI's relationship with total adiposity

  3. Nutritional risk assessment in critically ill cancer patients: systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fruchtenicht, Ana Valéria Gonçalves; Poziomyck, Aline Kirjner; Kabke, Geórgia Brum; Loss, Sérgio Henrique; Antoniazzi, Jorge Luiz; Steemburgo, Thais; Moreira, Luis Fernando

    2015-01-01

    Objective To systematically review the main methods for nutritional risk assessment used in critically ill cancer patients and present the methods that better assess risks and predict relevant clinical outcomes in this group of patients, as well as to discuss the pros and cons of these methods according to the current literature. Methods The study consisted of a systematic review based on analysis of manuscripts retrieved from the PubMed, LILACS and SciELO databases by searching for the key words “nutritional risk assessment”, “critically ill” and “cancer”. Results Only 6 (17.7%) of 34 initially retrieved papers met the inclusion criteria and were selected for the review. The main outcomes of these studies were that resting energy expenditure was associated with undernourishment and overfeeding. The high Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment score was significantly associated with low food intake, weight loss and malnutrition. In terms of biochemical markers, higher levels of creatinine, albumin and urea were significantly associated with lower mortality. The worst survival was found for patients with worse Eastern Cooperative Oncologic Group - performance status, high Glasgow Prognostic Score, low albumin, high Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment score and high alkaline phosphatase levels. Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index values < 87 were significantly associated with mortality. A high Prognostic Inflammatory and Nutritional Index score was associated with abnormal nutritional status in critically ill cancer patients. Among the reviewed studies that examined weight and body mass index alone, no significant clinical outcome was found. Conclusion None of the methods reviewed helped to define risk among these patients. Therefore, assessment by a combination of weight loss and serum measurements, preferably in combination with other methods using scores such as Eastern Cooperative Oncologic Group - performance status, Glasgow Prognostic

  4. Assessment of radiological technologist health condition by Todai health index

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ham Gyum [Ansan College, Ansan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Wha Sun [College of Medicine, Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2001-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the general health status of radiological technologists by using Todai Health Index(THI) that has been employed as a standard health assessment tool for a specific group. The subjects in this study were 800 radiological technologists who were working in clinics, hospitals and university hospitals in and around Seoul and in some provincial cities. A survey was conducted directly or by mail in June and July, 2001. And the response rate was 68%. Using THI, the following findings were acquired: 1. By gender, both male and female radiological technologists complained about multiple subjective symptom(I) the most, And the women made more significant complaint of eight items including irregular life. 2. By age group, the radiological technologists whose age ranged from 20 to 24 got higher marks in most of the items, including multiple subjective symptom(I) and symptoms related to eyes and skin. 3. For career, those who had worked for a year or less or for one to five years got higher marks in most of the items. 4. Concerning marital status, the unmarried people complained about many items more, and the married people's symptom was more associated with live scale(L). 5. By the type of medical institution, the radiological technologists in the university hospitals got higher marks in two items including aggressiveness(F), but those in the clinics complained about the others more. 6. Regarding a place of service, there were little differences between the radiological technologists in basement and on the ground.

  5. Assessment of radiological technologist health condition by Todai health index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ham Gyum; Kim, Wha Sun

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the general health status of radiological technologists by using Todai Health Index(THI) that has been employed as a standard health assessment tool for a specific group. The subjects in this study were 800 radiological technologists who were working in clinics, hospitals and university hospitals in and around Seoul and in some provincial cities. A survey was conducted directly or by mail in June and July, 2001. And the response rate was 68%. Using THI, the following findings were acquired: 1. By gender, both male and female radiological technologists complained about multiple subjective symptom(I) the most, And the women made more significant complaint of eight items including irregular life. 2. By age group, the radiological technologists whose age ranged from 20 to 24 got higher marks in most of the items, including multiple subjective symptom(I) and symptoms related to eyes and skin. 3. For career, those who had worked for a year or less or for one to five years got higher marks in most of the items. 4. Concerning marital status, the unmarried people complained about many items more, and the married people's symptom was more associated with live scale(L). 5. By the type of medical institution, the radiological technologists in the university hospitals got higher marks in two items including aggressiveness(F), but those in the clinics complained about the others more. 6. Regarding a place of service, there were little differences between the radiological technologists in basement and on the ground

  6. Markers of insulin resistance and carotid atherosclerosis. A comparison of the homeostasis model assessment and triglyceride glucose index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irace, C; Carallo, C; Scavelli, F B; De Franceschi, M S; Esposito, T; Tripolino, C; Gnasso, A

    2013-07-01

    The present investigation was designed to test the association between carotid atherosclerosis and two simple markers of insulin resistance, i.e. HOMA-Index and TyG-Index. The study was performed in two different cohorts. In the first cohort, 330 individuals were enrolled. Blood pressure, lipids, glucose, waist and cigarette smoking were evaluated. HOMA-IR and TyG-Index were calculated as markers of prevalent hepatic and muscular insulin resistance respectively. Carotid atherosclerosis was assessed by Doppler ultrasonography. The association between cardiovascular risk factors, markers of insulin resistance and carotid atherosclerosis was assessed by multiple logistic regression analyses. In the second cohort, limited to the evaluation of TyG-Index, 1432 subjects were studied. In the first cohort, TyG-Index was significantly associated with carotid atherosclerosis in a model including age, sex, diabetes, cigarette smoking and LDL cholesterol, while HOMA-IR was not. When components of metabolic syndrome were added to the model as dichotomous variables (absent/present), TyG-Index retained its predictive power. The same result was obtained when the metabolic syndrome was added to the model (absence/presence). The association between TyG-Index and carotid atherosclerosis was confirmed in the second cohort. The present findings suggest that TyG-Index is better associated with carotid atherosclerosis than HOMA-IR. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. A Comparison of Microplastic Ecological Risk in Sediments of Shanghai and Hong Kong Based on the Ecological Risk Index and Plastic Hazard Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, P.; Li, D.

    2017-12-01

    Microplastic which refers to the plastic fragments and particles with diameters less than 5 mm has potential threatening impacts on various ambient medium. The shortage of knowledge of ecological risks from microplastics inhibits the scientific research process. Based on the research of the literature widely, this paper analyzed potential ecological risk of microplastic in sediment of Shanghai and Hong Kong by means of ecological risk index and hazard classes developed by UN Globally Harmonized System. Combining of the two assessment method, results showed that the order of microplastic pollution extents in sediments was Changjiang Estuary

  8. Development and evaluation of an automated fall risk assessment system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ju Young; Jin, Yinji; Piao, Jinshi; Lee, Sun-Mi

    2016-04-01

    Fall risk assessment is the first step toward prevention, and a risk assessment tool with high validity should be used. This study aimed to develop and validate an automated fall risk assessment system (Auto-FallRAS) to assess fall risks based on electronic medical records (EMRs) without additional data collected or entered by nurses. This study was conducted in a 1335-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. The Auto-FallRAS was developed using 4211 fall-related clinical data extracted from EMRs. Participants included fall patients and non-fall patients (868 and 3472 for the development study; 752 and 3008 for the validation study; and 58 and 232 for validation after clinical application, respectively). The system was evaluated for predictive validity and concurrent validity. The final 10 predictors were included in the logistic regression model for the risk-scoring algorithm. The results of the Auto-FallRAS were shown as high/moderate/low risk on the EMR screen. The predictive validity analyzed after clinical application of the Auto-FallRAS was as follows: sensitivity = 0.95, NPV = 0.97 and Youden index = 0.44. The validity of the Morse Fall Scale assessed by nurses was as follows: sensitivity = 0.68, NPV = 0.88 and Youden index = 0.28. This study found that the Auto-FallRAS results were better than were the nurses' predictions. The advantage of the Auto-FallRAS is that it automatically analyzes information and shows patients' fall risk assessment results without requiring additional time from nurses. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  9. Body mass index and risk of Alzheimer's disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordestgaard, Liv Tybjærg; Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne; Nordestgaard, Børge G.

    2017-01-01

    between low BMI and high risk of Alzheimer's disease. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using a Mendelian randomization approach, we studied 95,578 individuals from the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS) with up to 36 years of follow-up and consortia data on 303,958 individuals from the Genetic...... Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) and the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP). Main Outcome Measure: Risk of Alzheimer's disease. Results: The causal odds ratio for a 1-kg/m2 genetically determined lower BMI was 0.98 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.77 to 1.23] for a weighted...... allele score in the CGPS. Using 32 BMIdecreasing variants from GIANT and IGAP the causal odds ratio for Alzheimer's disease for a 1-standard deviation (SD) lower genetically determined BMI was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.86 to 1.22). Corresponding observational hazard ratios from the CGPS were 1.07 (95% CI, 1...

  10. Childhood body mass index and risk of adult pancreatic cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogueira, Leticia; Stolzenberg-Solomon, Rachael; Gamborg, Michael

    2017-01-01

    incident pancreatic cancer cases from 1968-2012. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazard regressions. Results: During 8,207,015 person-years of follow-up, 1,268 pancreatic cancer cases were diagnosed. Childhood BMI z-scores at ages 7-13 years were......Background: Excess weight in adulthood is one of the few modifiable risk factors for pancreatic cancer, and height has associations as well. This leads to question whether body weight and height in childhood are associated with adult pancreatic cancer. Objective: To examine if childhood body mass...... from 7-13 years is positively and linearly associated with adult pancreatic cancer; the higher the BMI, the higher the risk. Excess childhood BMI may be indicative of processes initiated early in life that lead to this cancer. Prevention of childhood adiposity may decrease the burden of pancreatic...

  11. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  12. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  13. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  14. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  15. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  16. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  17. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  18. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  19. Changes in geriatric nutritional risk index and risk of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events in incident peritoneal dialysis patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mi Jung Lee

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI is a validated nutritional assessment method, and lower GNRI values are closely associated with adverse clinical outcomes in dialysis patients. This study investigated the impact of changes in GNRI during the first year of dialysis on cardiovascular outcomes in incident peritoneal dialysis (PD patients. Methods: We reviewed medical records in 133 incident PD patients to determine GNRI at the start of PD and after 12 months. Patients were categorized into improved (delta GNRI > 0 and worsening/stationary (delta GNRI ≤ 0 groups. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs. Results: During a mean follow-up of 51.1 months, the primary outcome was observed in 42 patients (31.6%. The baseline GNRI at PD initiation was not significantly associated with MACCEs (log-rank test, P = 0.40. However, the cumulative event-free rate was significantly lower in the worsening or stationary GNRI group than in the improved group (log-rank test, P = 0.004. Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that a worsening or stationary GNRI was independently associated with higher risk for MACCEs (hazard ratio, 2.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.15–5.29; P = 0.02. In subgroup analysis, patients with worsening or stationary GNRI were at significantly greater risk for MACCEs in both the lower (P = 0.04 and higher (P = 0.01 baseline GNRI groups. Conclusion: Baseline GNRI was not associated with MACCEs, but patients with deteriorating or stationary nutritional status were at significantly greater risk for MACCEs, suggesting that serial monitoring of nutritional status is important to stratify cardiovascular risk in incident PD patients.

  20. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  1. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  2. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  3. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  4. Risk Quantitative Determination of Fire and Explosion in a Process Unit By Dow’s Fire and Explosion Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Varmazyar

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims   Fire and explosion hazards are the first and second of major hazards in process industries, respectively. This study has been done to determine fire and explosion risk severity,radius of exposure and estimating of most probable loss.   Methods   In this quantitative study process unit has been selected with affecting parameters on  fire and explosion risk. Then, it was analyzed by DOW's fire and explosion index (F&EI. Technical data were obtained from process documents and reports, fire and explosion guideline.After calculating of DOW's index, radius of exposure determined and finally most  probable loss was estimated.   Results   The results showed an F&EI value of 226 for this process unit.The F&EI was extremely  high and unacceptable.Risk severity was categorized in sever class.Radius of exposure and damage factor were calculated 57 meters and 83%,respectively. As well as most probable loss was  estimated about 6.7 million dollars.   Conclusion   F&EI is a proper technique for risk assessment and loss estimation of fire and  explosion in process industries.Also,It is an important index for detecting high risk and low risk   areas in an industry. At this technique, all of factors affecting on fire and explosion risk was  showed as index that is a base for judgement risk class. Finally, estimated losses could be used as  a base of fire and explosion insurance.

  5. Risk assessment basis for WWER-440 spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lascek, M.; Necas, V.; Darilek, P.

    2000-01-01

    The most problematic part of nuclear fuel cycle is its back end. Various high level waste management are available or under development (final disposal of spent assemblies in deep repository, reprocessing, partitioning, transmutation,...). Application of any method is connected with production of characteristic high level waste (amount, radio-toxicity, form,...) as well as various risk level for the environment and mankind. Strategy selection should be based on risk analysis also. The paper deals with assessment of risk, that is associated with WWER-440 spent fuel inventory. In order to evaluate the risk, the accumulated amount of the radioactive inventory is calculated and the decay of the long-lived radionuclides is computed by ORIGEN code. Analysis is oriented on calculation of hazard indexes for assessing the relative hazards of actinides, toxic and long-lived radionuclides. (Authors)

  6. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  7. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  8. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  9. A novel clinical index for the assessment of RVD in acute pulmonary embolism: Blood pressure index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ates, Hale; Ates, Ihsan; Kundi, Harun; Arikan, Mehmet Fettah; Yilmaz, Fatma Meric

    2017-10-01

    This study aims to investigate the role of the blood pressure index (BPI), which is a new index that we developed, in detection of right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) in acute pulmonary embolism (APE). A total of 539 patients, (253 males and 286 females), diagnosed with APE using computer tomography pulmonary angiography were included in the study. The BPI was obtained by dividing systolic blood pressure (SBP) by diastolic blood pressure (DBP). Mean DBP (75±11mmHg vs 63±15mmHg; p<0.001, respectively) was found to be higher in RVD patients compared to those without RVD, whereas BPI (1.5±0.1 vs 1.9±0.2; p<0.001, respectively) was lower. Examining the performance of BPI in prediction of RVD using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (area under curve±SE=0.975±0.006; p<0.001), it was found that BPI could predict RVD with very high sensitivity (92.8%) and specificity (100%) and had a positive predictive value of 100% and a negative predictive value of 42.1%. According to the analysis, the highest youden index for the optimal prediction value was found to be 0.478 and the BPI≤1.4 was found to predict mortality 68.6% sensitivity and 80.8% specificity (Area under curve±SE=0.777±0.051; p<0.001). We found that BPI was an index with high positive predictive value and low negative predictive value in detection of RVD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Comparative assessment of button cells using a normalized index for potential pollution by heavy metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreno-Merino, Luis; Jiménez-Hernández, Maria Emilia; Losa, Almudena de la; Huerta-Muñoz, Virginia

    2015-01-01

    Many household batteries worldwide still end up in landfills or are incinerated due to inefficient collection and recycling schemes. Toxic heavy metals from improperly discarded button cells pose a serious risk to human health and the environment, as they can pollute air, soil and water. This paper analyses a series of button cells selected from batteries available on the retail market, and compares their polluting potential. A total of 64 batteries were subjected to chemical analyses of 19 elements — including metals and metalloids — , and energy density measurements. The samples were from four different brands of each of the four most common button cell technologies (alkaline, zinc-air, silver oxide and lithium). An energy-normalized index — the Weighted Potential Pollution Index (WPPI) — was proposed to compare the polluting potential of the different batteries. The higher the battery WPPI score, the greater the content in toxic elements and the lower the energy output. The results of the chemical composition and energy density varied depending on the construction technology of the button cells. However, significant differences in both variables were also found when comparing different brands within the same technology. The differences in WPPI values confirmed the existence of a significant margin to reduce the environmental impact of discarded button cells simply by avoiding the most polluting options. The choice of the battery with the most favourable WPPI produced a reduction in potential pollution of 3–53% for silver oxide batteries, 4–39% for alkaline, 20–28% for zinc-air and 12–26% for lithium. Comparative potential pollution could be assessed when selecting batteries using an energy-normalized index such as WPPI to reduce the environmental impact of improperly disposed button cells. - Highlights: • We compare the polluting potential of button cells using an energy-normalized index. • This battery index considers both chemical

  11. Comparative assessment of button cells using a normalized index for potential pollution by heavy metals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreno-Merino, Luis, E-mail: l.moreno@igme.es [Geological Survey of Spain, Environmental Geology Research Group, C/ Ríos Rosas 23, 28003 Madrid (Spain); Jiménez-Hernández, Maria Emilia; Losa, Almudena de la [Geological Survey of Spain, Environmental Geology Research Group, C/ Ríos Rosas 23, 28003 Madrid (Spain); Huerta-Muñoz, Virginia [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departamento de Geodinámica Externa, C/ José Antonio Novais, 12, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2015-09-01

    Many household batteries worldwide still end up in landfills or are incinerated due to inefficient collection and recycling schemes. Toxic heavy metals from improperly discarded button cells pose a serious risk to human health and the environment, as they can pollute air, soil and water. This paper analyses a series of button cells selected from batteries available on the retail market, and compares their polluting potential. A total of 64 batteries were subjected to chemical analyses of 19 elements — including metals and metalloids — , and energy density measurements. The samples were from four different brands of each of the four most common button cell technologies (alkaline, zinc-air, silver oxide and lithium). An energy-normalized index — the Weighted Potential Pollution Index (WPPI) — was proposed to compare the polluting potential of the different batteries. The higher the battery WPPI score, the greater the content in toxic elements and the lower the energy output. The results of the chemical composition and energy density varied depending on the construction technology of the button cells. However, significant differences in both variables were also found when comparing different brands within the same technology. The differences in WPPI values confirmed the existence of a significant margin to reduce the environmental impact of discarded button cells simply by avoiding the most polluting options. The choice of the battery with the most favourable WPPI produced a reduction in potential pollution of 3–53% for silver oxide batteries, 4–39% for alkaline, 20–28% for zinc-air and 12–26% for lithium. Comparative potential pollution could be assessed when selecting batteries using an energy-normalized index such as WPPI to reduce the environmental impact of improperly disposed button cells. - Highlights: • We compare the polluting potential of button cells using an energy-normalized index. • This battery index considers both chemical

  12. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  13. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  14. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  15. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palecek, M [Occupational Safety Research Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1992-07-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems.

  16. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palecek, M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  17. Objective assessment of plaster cast quality in pediatric distal forearm fractures: Is there an optimal index?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labronici, Pedro José; Ferreira, Leonardo Termis; Dos Santos Filho, Fernando Claudino; Pires, Robinson Esteves Santos; Gomes, Davi Coutinho Fonseca Fernandes; da Silva, Luiz Henrique Penteado; Gameiro, Vinicius Schott

    2017-02-01

    Several so-called casting indices are available for objective evaluation of plaster cast quality. The present study sought to investigate four of these indices (gap index, padding index, Canterbury index, and three-point index) as compared to a reference standard (cast index) for evaluation of plaster cast quality after closed reduction of pediatric displaced distal forearm fractures. Forty-three radiographs from patients with displaced distal forearm fractures requiring manipulation were reviewed. Accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, false-positive probability, false-negative probability, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio were calculated for each of the tested indices. Comparison among indices revealed diagnostic agreement in only 4.7% of cases. The strongest correlation with the cast index was found for the gap index, with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.94. The gap index also displayed the best agreement with the cast index, with both indices yielding the same result in 79.1% of assessments. When seeking to assess plaster cast quality, the cast index and gap index should be calculated; if both indices agree, a decision on quality can be made. If the cast and gap indices disagree, the padding index can be calculated as a tiebreaker, and the decision based on the most frequent of the three results. Calculation of the three-point index and Canterbury index appears unnecessary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

    2016-05-01

    Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.

  19. Application of Nemerow Index Method and Integrated Water Quality Index Method in Water Quality Assessment of Zhangze Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Feng, Minquan; Hao, Xiaoyan

    2018-03-01

    [Objective] Based on the water quality historical data from the Zhangze Reservoir from the last five years, the water quality was assessed by the integrated water quality identification index method and the Nemerow pollution index method. The results of different evaluation methods were analyzed and compared and the characteristics of each method were identified.[Methods] The suitability of the water quality assessment methods were compared and analyzed, based on these results.[Results] the water quality tended to decrease over time with 2016 being the year with the worst water quality. The sections with the worst water quality were the southern and northern sections.[Conclusion] The results produced by the traditional Nemerow index method fluctuated greatly in each section of water quality monitoring and therefore could not effectively reveal the trend of water quality at each section. The combination of qualitative and quantitative measures of the comprehensive pollution index identification method meant it could evaluate the degree of water pollution as well as determine that the river water was black and odorous. However, the evaluation results showed that the water pollution was relatively low.The results from the improved Nemerow index evaluation were better as the single indicators and evaluation results are in strong agreement; therefore the method is able to objectively reflect the water quality of each water quality monitoring section and is more suitable for the water quality evaluation of the reservoir.

  20. Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, G.; Yaqin, Q.; Qiong, L.; Cunwen, N.; Na, W.; Jiajia, L.; Jongde, G.; Na, Z.; Xiangyi, D.

    2014-09-01

    Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

  1. Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Hong

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs. The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

  2. Diet index-based and empirically derived dietary patterns are associated with colorectal cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Paige E; Lazarus, Philip; Lesko, Samuel M; Muscat, Joshua E; Harper, Gregory; Cross, Amanda J; Sinha, Rashmi; Ryczak, Karen; Escobar, Gladys; Mauger, David T; Hartman, Terryl J

    2010-07-01

    Previous studies have derived patterns by measuring compliance with preestablished dietary guidance or empirical methods, such as principal components analysis (PCA). Our objective was to examine colorectal cancer risk associated with patterns identified by both methods. The study included 431 incident colorectal cancer cases (225 men, 206 women) and 726 healthy controls (330 men, 396 women) participating in a population-based, case-control study. PCA identified sex-specific dietary patterns and the Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-05) assessed adherence to the 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans. A fruits and vegetables pattern and a meat, potatoes, and refined grains pattern were identified among men and women; a third pattern (alcohol and sweetened beverages) was identified in men. The fruits and vegetables pattern was inversely associated with risk among men [odds ratio (OR) = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.21-0.69 for the highest compared with the lowest quartile] and women (OR = 0.35, 95% CI = 0.19-0.65). The meat, potatoes, and refined grains pattern was positively associated with risk in women (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.08-4.50) and there was a suggestion of a positive association among men (OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 0.84-2.90; P-trend = 0.070). Men and women with greater HEI-05 scores had a significantly reduced risk of colorectal cancer (OR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.31-0.99; OR = 0.44, 95% CI = 0.24-0.77, respectively). Following the Dietary Guidelines or a dietary pattern lower in meat, potatoes, high fat, and refined foods and higher in fruits and vegetables may reduce colorectal cancer risk.

  3. Body mass index in relation to serum prostate-specific antigen levels and prostate cancer risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonn, Stephanie E; Sjölander, Arvid; Tillander, Annika; Wiklund, Fredrik; Grönberg, Henrik; Bälter, Katarina

    2016-07-01

    High Body mass index (BMI) has been directly associated with risk of aggressive or fatal prostate cancer. One possible explanation may be an effect of BMI on serum levels of prostate-specific antigen (PSA). To study the association between BMI and serum PSA as well as prostate cancer risk, a large cohort of men without prostate cancer at baseline was followed prospectively for prostate cancer diagnoses until 2015. Serum PSA and BMI were assessed among 15,827 men at baseline in 2010-2012. During follow-up, 735 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer with 282 (38.4%) classified as high-grade cancers. Multivariable linear regression models and natural cubic linear regression splines were fitted for analyses of BMI and log-PSA. For risk analysis, Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and natural cubic Cox regression splines producing standardized cancer-free probabilities were fitted. Results showed that baseline Serum PSA decreased by 1.6% (95% CI: -2.1 to -1.1) with every one unit increase in BMI. Statistically significant decreases of 3.7, 11.7 and 32.3% were seen for increasing BMI-categories of 25 prostate cancer risk although results were indicative of a positive association to incidence rates of high-grade disease and an inverse association to incidence of low-grade disease. However, findings regarding risk are limited by the short follow-up time. In conclusion, BMI was inversely associated to PSA-levels. BMI should be taken into consideration when referring men to a prostate biopsy based on serum PSA-levels. © 2016 UICC.

  4. Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

    2009-04-01

    on rock conditions (for the same probability level). Again, the highest hazard is found in the northeastern part of the region. The lowest hazard is obtained along major river valleys The vulnerability assessment of the Navarra building stock is accomplished using as proxy a combination of building age, location, number of floors and the implantation of building codes. Field surveys help constraining the extent of traditional and technological construction types. The vulnerability characterization is carried out following three methods: European Macroseismic Scale (EMS 98), RISK UE vulnerability index and the capacity spectrum method implemented in Hazus. Vulnerability distribution maps for each Navarrean municipality are provided, adapted to the EMS98 vulnerability classes. The vulnerability of Navarre is medium to high, except for recent urban, highly populated developments. For each vulnerability class and expected ground motion, damage distribution is estimated by means of damage probability matrixes. Several damage indexes, embracing relative and absolute damage estimates, are used. Expected average damage is low. Whereas the largest amounts of damaged structures are found in big cities, the highest percentages are obtained in some muniucipalities of northeastern Navarre. Additionally, expected percentages and amounts of affected persons by earthquake damage are calculated for each municipality. Expected amounts of affected people are low, reflecting the low expected damage degree.

  5. [Frail-VIG index: Design and evaluation of a new frailty index based on the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amblàs-Novellas, Jordi; Martori, Joan Carles; Molist Brunet, Núria; Oller, Ramon; Gómez-Batiste, Xavier; Espaulella Panicot, Joan

    Frailty is closely linked to health results. Frailty indexes (FI) and the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) are multidimensional tools. FI serve to quantitatively measure frailty levels. They have shown to have an excellent correlation with mortality. However, they are infrequently used in clinical practice. Given the need for new, more concise, and pragmatic FI, a new FI is proposed based on a CGA (Frail-VIG Index). A prospective, observational, longitudinal study was conducted, with cohort follow up at 12 months or death. Participants were patients admitted in the Geriatric Unit of the University Hospital of Vic (Barcelona, Spain) during 2014. Contrast of hypothesis log-rank for survival curves according to Frail-VIG index, and analysis of ROC curves were performed to assess prognostic capacity. A total of 590 patients were included (mean age=86.39). Mortality rate at 12 months was 46.4%. The comparative analysis showed statistically significant differences (P<.05) for almost all variables included in the Frail-VIG index. Survival curves also show significant differences (X 2 =445, P<.001) for the different Frail-VIG index scores. The area under the ROC curve at 12 months was 0.9 (0.88-0.92). An administration time of the Index is estimated at less than 10minutes. Results endorse the Frail-VIG index as a simple (as for contents), rapid (for administration time) tool, with discriminative (for situational diagnosis) and predictive capacity (high correlation with mortality). Copyright © 2016 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Fundamental study on applicability of resilience index for system safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Masaaki; Demachi, Kazuyuki; Murakami, Kenta

    2015-01-01

    We have developed a new index called Resilience index, which evaluate the reliability of system safety of nuclear power plant under severe accident by considering the capability to recover from the situation the system safety function was lost. In this paper, a detailed evaluation procedure for the Resilience index was described. System safety of a PWR plant under severe accident was then assessed according to the Resilience index concept to discuss applicability of the index. We found that the Resilience index successfully visualize the management capability, and therefore, resilience capability of a nuclear power plant. (author)

  7. Assessing gas transit risks: Russia vs. the EU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Coq, Chloé; Paltseva, Elena

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes a Transit Risk Index (TRI) designed to assess the riskiness of pipeline gas imports and to study the effect of introducing new gas routes. TRI controls for gas dependency, transit route diversification, political risks of transit, pipeline rupture probability, and the balance of power between supplying and consuming countries along the transit route. Evaluating TRI for the EU-Russia gas trade, we show that the introduction of the Nord Stream pipeline would further widen already large disparities in gas risk exposure across the EU Member States. The gas risk exposure of the Member States served by Nord Stream would decline. In contrast, EU countries not connected to Nord Stream, but sharing other Russian gas transit routes with the Nord Stream countries, would face greater gas risk exposure. We discuss the implications of our analysis for the design of the common energy policy in the EU.

  8. Repeat Assessed Values Model for Housing Price Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carini Manuela

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes an innovative methodology, named Repeat Appraised Price Model (RAV, useful for determining the price index numbers for real estate markets and the corresponding index numbers of hedonic prices of main real estate characteristics in the case of a lack of data. The methodological approach proposed in this paper aims to appraise the time series of price index numbers. It integrates the principles of the method of repeat sales with the peculiarities of the Hedonic Price Method, overcoming the problem of an almost total absence of repeat sales for the same property in a given time range; on the other hand, the technique aims to overcome the limitation of the repeat sales technique concerning the inability to take into account the characteristics of individual properties.

  9. Going beyond the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: an index system of human dependence on ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wu; Dietz, Thomas; Liu, Wei; Luo, Junyan; Liu, Jianguo

    2013-01-01

    The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) estimated that two thirds of ecosystem services on the earth have degraded or are in decline due to the unprecedented scale of human activities during recent decades. These changes will have tremendous consequences for human well-being, and offer both risks and opportunities for a wide range of stakeholders. Yet these risks and opportunities have not been well managed due in part to the lack of quantitative understanding of human dependence on ecosystem services. Here, we propose an index of dependence on ecosystem services (IDES) system to quantify human dependence on ecosystem services. We demonstrate the construction of the IDES system using household survey data. We show that the overall index and sub-indices can reflect the general pattern of households' dependences on ecosystem services, and their variations across time, space, and different forms of capital (i.e., natural, human, financial, manufactured, and social capitals). We support the proposition that the poor are more dependent on ecosystem services and further generalize this proposition by arguing that those disadvantaged groups who possess low levels of any form of capital except for natural capital are more dependent on ecosystem services than those with greater control of capital. The higher value of the overall IDES or sub-index represents the higher dependence on the corresponding ecosystem services, and thus the higher vulnerability to the degradation or decline of corresponding ecosystem services. The IDES system improves our understanding of human dependence on ecosystem services. It also provides insights into strategies for alleviating poverty, for targeting priority groups of conservation programs, and for managing risks and opportunities due to changes of ecosystem services at multiple scales.

  10. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  11. Spatial modelling of population at risk and PM 2.5 exposure index: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, monitoring, spatial representation and development of associated risk indicators have been major problems undermining formulation of relevant policy on air quality. This study used ... to environmental health. Key Words: Population at risk, PM2.5; Spatial modeling, GIS, Exposure index, environmental health ...

  12. Risk preference or financial literacy? Behavioural experiment on index insurance demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Awel, Y.; Azomahou, T.T.

    2015-01-01

    We use unique cross-sectional household data from Ethiopia to investigate the effect of risk preference, financial literacy and other socio-economic characteristics on demand for index insurance. We measure risk preference based on survey experiments using lottery choice game with real monetary

  13. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  14. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  15. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  16. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  18. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  19. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  20. Caries risk assessment in pregnant women using cariogram

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolić Olivera

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction/Objective. “Cariogram” takes into account interactions between caries-related factors and expresses a graphic assessment of the caries risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between caries risk and different variables of Cariogram in pregnant women. Methods. This study included 96 pregnant women. At baseline, data on general health, diet, oral hygiene, and fluoride exposure were obtained. DMFT (decayed, missing, and filled teeth index was calculated by clinical examination. Saliva analyses included mutans streptococci and lactobacilli counts, buffer capacity, and secretion rate. Scores were entered and caries risk was assessed. The women were divided into five groups according to their Cariogram caries risk. Results. The results of the study showed that 29.17% (28 of the pregnant women had high caries risk, 21.88% (21 – medium, 17.71% (17 – low, 16.67% (16 – very high, and 14.58% (14 – very low caries risk. In an average caries risk profile of pregnant women, the dominant sector was “Bacteria” (18.85% of the risk structure profile, followed by “Diet” (17.97%, “Circumstances” (15.68%, and “Susceptibility” sector (14.65%. Conclusion. Cariogram shows that pregnant women in Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina, had 46.14% chance of avoiding caries in the future. The Cariogram model can successfully determine caries risk profiles for pregnant women.

  1. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  2. Risk assessment of metals in road-deposited sediment along an urban–rural gradient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Hongtao; Li, Xuyong

    2013-01-01

    We applied the traditional risk assessment methods originally designed for soils and river sediments to evaluation of risk associated with metals in road-deposited sediment (RDS) along an urban–rural gradient that included central urban (UCA), urban village (UVA), central suburban county (CSA), rural town (RTA), and rural village (RVA) areas in the Beijing metropolitan region. A new indicator RI RDS was developed which integrated the RDS characteristics of mobility, grain size and amount with the potential ecological risk index. The risk associated with metals in RDS in urban areas was generally higher than that in rural areas based on the assessment using traditional methods, but the risk was higher in urban and rural village areas than the areas with higher administration units based on the indicator RI RDS . These findings implied that RDS characteristics variation with the urban–rural gradient must be considered in metal risk assessment and RDS washoff pollution control. Highlights: ► Spatial pattern of metal risk level associated with road-deposited sediment (RDS) along urban–rural gradients varied. ► Risk level of metals changed significantly when grain size was considered. ► A new index integrating RDS characteristics and potential ecological risk was developed. ► Results from the new index were improved relative to those of traditional assessment methods. -- A new index integrating road-deposited sediment characteristics and potential ecological risk was developed to assess metal risk along the urban–rural gradient

  3. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  4. Body mass index predicts risk for complications from transtemporal cerebellopontine angle surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantravadi, Avinash V; Leonetti, John P; Burgette, Ryan; Pontikis, George; Marzo, Sam J; Anderson, Douglas

    2013-03-01

    To determine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and risk for specific complications from transtemporal cerebellopontine angle (CPA) surgery for nonmalignant disease. Case series with chart review. Tertiary-care academic hospital. Retrospective review of 134 consecutive patients undergoing transtemporal cerebellopontine angle surgery for nonmalignant disease from 2009 to 2011. Data were collected regarding demographics, body mass index, intraoperative details, hospital stay, and complications including cerebrospinal fluid leak, wound complications, and brachial plexopathy. One hundred thirty-four patients were analyzed with a mean preoperative body mass index of 28.58. Statistical analysis demonstrated a significant difference in body mass index between patients with a postoperative cerebrospinal fluid leak and those without (P = .04), as well as a similar significant difference between those experiencing postoperative brachial plexopathy and those with no such complication (P = .03). Logistical regression analysis confirmed that body mass index is significant in predicting both postoperative cerebrospinal fluid leak (P = .004; odds ratio, 1.10) and brachial plexopathy (P = .04; odds ratio, 1.07). Elevated body mass index was not significant in predicting wound complications or increased hospital stay beyond postoperative day 3. Risk of cerebrospinal fluid leak and brachial plexopathy is increased in patients with elevated body mass index undergoing surgery of the cerebellopontine angle. Consideration should be given to preoperative optimization via dietary and lifestyle modifications as well as intraoperative somatosensory evoked potential monitoring of the brachial plexus to decrease these risks.

  5. Risk Assessment of Power System considering the CPS of Transformers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Long; Peng, Zewu; Liu, Xindong; Li, Canbing; Chen, Can

    2018-02-01

    This paper constructs a risk assessment framework of power system for device-level information security, analyzes the typical protection configuration of power transformers, and takes transformer gas protection and differential protection as examples to put forward a method that analyzes the cyber security in electric power system, which targets transformer protection parameters. We estimate the risk of power system accounting for the cyber security of transformer through utilizing Monte Carlo method and two indexes, which are the loss of load probability and the expected demand not supplied. The proposed approach is tested with IEEE 9 bus system and IEEE 118 bus system.

  6. Judicial aspects in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukes, R.

    1977-01-01

    Decisions of administrative authorities concerning the permission to use fissile material contain a prognosis about the probability of damage which may be caused by using this material. The judicial criteria used in order to determine the probability of such a damage occurring can be improved by risk analysis. This will not, of course, reduce administrative decisions to simple 'yes-or-no decisions', but the calculation of probabilities will gain more exactness. (orig.) [de

  7. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  8. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of

  9. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: a discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire TG; Stevenson H; Pieters MN; Rennen M; Slob W; Hakkert BC; Nederlandse organisatie voor; CSR; LEO; TNO-ITV

    1998-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute towards further harmonisation of the human health risk assessment. It discusses the development of a formal, harmonised set of default assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed. Options are presented

  10. Index-based dietary patterns and risk of lung cancer in the NIH-AARP diet and health study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anic, G M; Park, Y; Subar, A F; Schap, T E; Reedy, J

    2016-01-01

    Dietary pattern analysis considers combinations of food intake and may offer a better measure to assess diet-cancer associations than examining individual foods or nutrients. Although tobacco exposure is the major risk factor for lung cancer, few studies have examined whether dietary patterns, based on preexisting dietary guidelines, influence lung cancer risk. After controlling for smoking, we examined associations between four diet quality indices-Healthy Eating Index-2010 (HEI-2010), Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI-2010), alternate Mediterranean Diet score (aMED) and Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH)-and lung cancer risk in the NIH-AARP (National Institutes of Health-American Association of Retired Persons) Diet and Health study. Baseline dietary intake was assessed in 460 770 participants. Over a median of 10.5 years of follow-up, 9272 incident lung cancer cases occurred. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs). Comparing highest to lowest quintiles, HRs (95% CIs) for lung cancer were as follows: HEI-2010=0.83 (0.77-0.89), AHEI-2010=0.86 (0.80-0.92), aMED=0.85 (0.79-0.91) and DASH=0.84 (0.78-0.90). Among the individual components of the dietary indices, higher consumption of whole grains and fruits was significantly inversely associated with lung cancer risk for several of the diet indices. Total index score analyses stratified by smoking status showed inverse associations with lung cancer for former smokers; however, only HEI-2010 was inversely associated in current smokers and no index score was inversely associated among never smokers. Although smoking is the factor most strongly associated with lung cancer, this study adds to a growing body of evidence that diet may have a modest role in reducing lung cancer risk, especially among former smokers.

  11. The development and validation of an ergonomics index for assessing tractor operator work place

    OpenAIRE

    Barbieri, Juan Paulo; Schlosser, José Fernando; Farias, Marcelo Silveira de; Negri, Giácomo Müller; Oliveira, Luis Fernando Vargas de

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT: This study aimed to develop and validate an ergonomics index for the operator workplace assessment of agricultural tractors sold in the Brazilian market. To develop the ergonomics index, the operator work places were assessed for compliance with current, national and international, safety and ergonomics standards. The following standards were analyzed to develop ergonomics index: ISO 15077 (1996), which regulates the position of operator controls; ABNT NBR ISO 4254-1(2015) and ABNT ...

  12. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  13. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  14. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  15. Health care index score and risk of death following tuberculosis diagnosis in HIV-positive patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Podlekareva, D N; Grint, D; Post, F A

    2013-01-01

    To assess health care utilisation for patients co-infected with TB and HIV (TB-HIV), and to develop a weighted health care index (HCI) score based on commonly used interventions and compare it with patient outcome.......To assess health care utilisation for patients co-infected with TB and HIV (TB-HIV), and to develop a weighted health care index (HCI) score based on commonly used interventions and compare it with patient outcome....

  16. The assessment and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daglish, J.

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

  17. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    , the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  18. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  19. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  20. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  1. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  2. [Development of a portable fall risk index for elderly people living in the community].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toba, Kenji; Okochi, Jiro; Takahashi, Tai; Matsubayashi, Kozo; Nishinaga, Masanori; Yamada, Shizuru; Takahashi, Ryutaro; Nishijima, Reiko; Kobayashi, Yoshio; Machida, Ayako; Akishita, Masahiro; Sasaki, Hidetada

    2005-05-01

    To develop a portable risk index for falls. Risk factors were chosen from previously established factors then we added several environmental factors to the risk index; previous falls in the last 12 month, trippig or stumbling, inability to ascend or descend stairs without help, decreased walking speed, inability to cross a road within the green signal interval, inability to walk 1km without a break, inability to stand on one leg for 5 seconds (eyes open), using a cane, inability to wring out a towel, dizziness or faintness, stooped or rounded back, knee joint pain, visual disturbance, hearing disturbance, cognitive decline, fear of falling, receiving 5 or more prescribed drugs, sensation of darkness at home, obstacles inside, barrier on the carpet or floor, using steps daily at home, steep slopes around home. The questionnaire sheet was completed by 2,439 community-dwelling elderly subjects (76.3 +/- 7.4 years old). The frequency of each items of fall risk index was compared between fallers (history of fall within one year) and non-fallers. Multiple regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for previous falls. Except barrier, step use and steep slope around home, all items in the fall risk index were more frequent in fallers. Multivariate analysis revealed that tripping or stumbling, inability to cross a road within the green signal interval, dizziness or faintness, obstacles inside, inability to wring out a towel, cane use and knee joint pain were independent risk factors for previous falls. These 7 selected items were further analyzed as predictors. The maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity was reached at the cut-off point of 2/3 (sensitivity 0.65, specificity 0.72) by receiver operating curve. Portable fall risk index is useful for clinical settings to identify high-risk subjects.

  3. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  4. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  5. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  6. Application of the Red List Index for conservation assessment of Spanish vascular plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saiz, Juan Carlos Moreno; Lozano, Felipe Domínguez; Gómez, Manuel Marrero; Baudet, Ángel Bañares

    2015-06-01

    The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI) is used to measure trends in extinction risk of species over time. The development of 2 red lists for Spanish vascular flora during the past decade allowed us to apply the IUCN RLI to vascular plants in an area belonging to a global biodiversity hotspot. We used the Spanish Red Lists from 2000 and 2010 to assess changes in level of threat at a national scale and at the subnational scales of Canary Islands, Balearic Islands, and peninsular Spain. We assigned retrospective IUCN categories of threat to 98 species included in the Spanish Red List of 2010 but absent in the Spanish Red List of 2000. In addition, we tested the effect of different random and taxonomic and spatial Spanish samples on the overall RLI value. From 2000 to 2010, the IUCN categories of 768 species changed (10% of Spanish flora), mainly due to improved knowledge (63%), modifications in IUCN criteria (14%), and changes in threat status (12%). All measured national and subnational RLI values decreased during this period, indicating a general decline in the conservation status of the Spanish vascular flora. The Canarian RLI value (0.84) was the lowest, although the fastest deterioration in conservation status occurred on peninsular Spain (from 0.93 in 2000 to 0.92 in 2010). The RLI values based on subsamples of the Spanish Red List were not representative of RLI values for the entire country, which would discourage the use of small areas or small taxonomic samples to assess general trends in the endangerment of national biotas. The role of the RLI in monitoring of changes in biodiversity at the global and regional scales needs further reassessment because additional areas and taxa are necessary to determine whether the index is sufficiently sensitive for use in assessing temporal changes in species' risk of extinction. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  7. The Compression Intensity Index: a practical anatomical estimate of the biomechanical risk for a deep tissue injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gefen, Amit

    2008-01-01

    Pressure-related deep tissue injury (DTI) is a severe form of pressure ulcer that initiates in compressed muscle tissues under bony prominences, and progresses superficially towards the skin. Patients with impaired motosensory capacities are at high risk of developing DTI. There is a critical medical need for developing risk assessment tools for DTI. A new anatomical index, the Compression Intensity Index: CII=(BW/Rt);[1/2], which depends on the body weight (BW), radius of curvature of the ischial tuberosities (R) and thickness of the underlying gluteus muscles (t), is suggested for approximating the loading intensity in muscle tissue during sitting in permanent wheelchair users, as part of a clinically-oriented risk assessment for DTI. Preliminary CII data were calculated for 6 healthy and 4 paraplegic subjects following MRI scans, and data were compared between the groups and with respect to a gold standard, being a previously developed subject-specific MRI-finite-element (MRI-FE) method of calculating muscle tissue stresses (Linder-Ganz et al., J. Biomech. 2007). Marked differences between the R and t parameters of the two groups caused the CII values of the paraplegics to be approximately 1.6-fold higher than for the healthy (pbedridden patients. Hence, CII measurements can be integrated into DTI-risk-assessment tools, the need of which is now being discussed intensively in the American and European Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel meetings.

  8. Ecological Risk Assessment of Jarosite Waste Disposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihone Kerolli-Mustafa

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Jarosite waste, originating from zinc extraction industry, is considered hazardous due to the presence and the mobility of toxic metals that it contains. Its worldwide disposal in many tailing damps has become a major ecological concern. Three different methods, namely modified Synthetic Precipitation Leaching Procedure (SPLP, three-stage BCR sequential extraction procedure and Potential Ecological Risk Index (PERI Method were used to access the ecological risk of jarosite waste disposal in Mitrovica Industrial Park, Kosovo. The combination of these methods can effectively identify the comprehensive and single pollution levels of heavy metals such as Zn, Pb, Cd, Cu, Ni and As present in jarosite waste. Moreover, the great positive relevance between leaching behavior of heavy metals and F1 fraction was supported by principal component analysis (PCA. PERI results indicate that Cd showed a very high risk class to the environment. The ecological risk of heavy metals declines in the following order: Cd>Zn>Cu>Pb>Ni>As.

  9. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  10. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  11. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  12. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  13. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  14. Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

  15. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  16. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  17. Science and judgment in risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants

    .... This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments...

  18. Business managers turn to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Frank

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessments have evolved to help technical managers in nuclear and other industries to design and operate plant with safety in mind. However, they are now developing into the area of business management. (author)

  19. Assessment of Logistics Risk using Collective Artificial Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skitsko Volodymyr I.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In substantiating management decisions in logistics, there can be used various economic and mathematical methods and models for quantitative risk assessment constructed with the help of a variety of instruments. Due to the increase in the processing power of computer equipment, economic and mathematical models become more complex, more precise, and the range of modeling tools expands. The current promising area in mathematical modeling is collective artificial intelligence, with the help of which it is possible to effectively solve weakly structured, multi-criteria, multi-purpose, complex economic problems. The mathematical model of the bat algorithm, the basic rules and steps of its functioning are presented, the application of the bat algorithm to solve the multi-index transport problem in the formulation of which the logistics risk is taken into account is shown, and the way to assess the logistics risk using the results of the functioning of the bat algorithm is shown.

  20. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  1. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  2. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  3. Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Ghodrati

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Measuring different risk factors such as credit risk in banking industry has been an interesting area of studies. The artificial neural network is a nonparametric method developed to succeed for measuring credit risk and this method is applied to measure the credit risk. This research’s neural network follows back propagation paradigm, which enables it to use historical data for predicting future values with very good out of sample fitting. Macroeconomic variables including GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, stock price index, and M2 are used to forecast credit risk for two Iranian banks; namely Saderat and Sarmayeh over the period 2007-2011. Research data are being tested for ADF and Causality Granger tests before entering the ANN to achieve the best lag structure for the research model. MSE and R values for the developed ANN in this research respectively are 86×〖10〗^(-4 and 0.9885, respectively. The results showed that ANN was able to predict banks’ credit risk with low error. Sensibility analyses which has accomplished on this research’s ANN corroborates that M2 has the highest effect on the ANN’s credit risk and should be considered as an additional leading indicator by Iran’s banking authorities. These matters confirm validation of macroeconomic notions in Iran’s credit systematic risk.

  4. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as

  5. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvin, B.N.

    1996-01-01

    An independent review of all facets of risk management, as it pertains to mergers and acquisitions within the petroleum industry, with no transactional motivation, was provided by a representative of a firm specializing in all phases of risk assessment. The following topics received attention: (1) the forward curve versus industry expectations, (2) investor expectations, (3) financial versus physical transactions, and (4) synthetic debt

  6. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  7. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  8. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  9. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  10. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  11. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  12. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  13. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  14. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  15. Predictive value of body mass index to metabolic syndrome risk factors in Syrian adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Bachir, Mahfouz; Bakir, Mohamad Adel

    2017-06-25

    Obesity has become a serious epidemic health problem in both developing and developed countries. There is much evidence that obesity among adolescents contributed significantly to the development of type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease in adulthood. Very limited information exists on the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and associated metabolic risk factors among Syrian adolescents. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between obesity determined by body mass index and the major metabolic risk factors among Syrian adolescents. A cross-sectional study of a randomly selected sample of 2064 apparently healthy Syrian adolescents aged 18 to 19 years from Damascus city, in Syria, was performed. Body mass index and blood pressure were measured. Serum concentrations of glucose, triglycerides, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol were determined. Metabolic syndrome was defined using the national criteria for each determined metabolic risk factor. Individuals with a body mass index 25 to 29.9 were classified as overweight, whereas individuals with a body mass index ≥30 were classified as obese. A receiver operating characteristics curve was drawn to determine appropriate cut-off points of the body mass index for defining overweight and obesity, and to indicate the performance of body mass index as a predictor of risk factors. The obtained data showed that blood pressure and the overall mean concentrations of fasting blood sugar, triglycerides, cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and triglycerides/high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol were significantly higher in overweight and obese adolescent groups (p index and some metabolic risks, the data suggest the best body mass index cut-offs ranged between 23.25 and 24.35 kg/m 2 . A strong association between overweight and obesity as determined by body mass index and high concentrations of metabolic syndrome

  16. Rainfall Intensity and Frequency Explain Production Basis Risk in Cumulative Rain Index Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus P.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Huffaker, Ray G.

    2017-12-01

    With minimal moral hazard and adverse selection, weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions through swift compensation at affordable premium. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing gives rise to production basis risk as the selected weather indexes do not sufficiently correspond to actual damages. To address this problem, we develop a stochastic yield model, built upon a stochastic soil moisture model driven by marked Poisson rainfall. Our analysis shows that even under similar temperature and rainfall amount yields can differ significantly; this was empirically supported by a 2-year field experiment in which rain-fed maize was grown under very similar total rainfall. Here, the year with more intense, less-frequent rainfall produces a better yield—a rare counter evidence to most climate change projections. Through a stochastic yield model, we demonstrate the crucial roles of rainfall intensity and frequency in determining the yield. Importantly, the model allows us to compute rainfall pattern-related basis risk inherent in cumulative rain index insurance. The model results and a case study herein clearly show that total rainfall is a poor indicator of yield, imposing unnecessary production basis risk on farmers and false-positive payouts on insurers. Incorporating rainfall intensity and frequency in the design of rain index insurance can offer farmers better protection, while maintaining the attractive features of the weather index insurance and thus fulfilling its promise of financial resilience.

  17. Multi-Level Risk Assessment of a Power Plant Gas Turbine Applying ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Multi-Level Risk Assessment of a Power Plant Gas Turbine Applying the Criticality Index Model. ... Journal of the Nigerian Association of Mathematical Physics ... This study has carefully shown and expressed a step by step computation of the severity level of the Turbine component parts, using the Criticality Index model.

  18. Assessing values of air quality and visibility at risk from wildland fires.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sue A. Ferguson; Steven J. McKay; David E. Nagel; Trent Piepho; Miriam L. Rorig; Casey Anderson; Lara. Kellogg

    2003-01-01

    To assess values of air quality and visibility at risk from wildland fire in the United States, we generated a 40-year database that includes twice daily values of wind, mixing height, and a ventilation index that is the product of windspeed and mixing height. The database provides the first nationally consistent map of surface wind and ventilation index. In addition,...

  19. Drought Risk Assessment based on Natural and Social Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jing; Wang, Huimin; Han, Dawei

    2015-04-01

    In many parts of the world, drought hazard is becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change and human activities. It is crucial to monitor and assess drought conditions, especially for decision making support in agriculture sector. The vegetation index (VI) decreases, and the land surface temperature (LST) increases when the vegetation is under drought stress. Therefore both of these remotely sensed indices are widely used in drought monitoring and assessment. Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) is obtained by establishing the feature space of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST, which reflects agriculture dry situation by inverting soil moisture. However, these indices only concern the natural hazard-causing factors. Our society is a complex large-scale system with various natural and social elements. The drought risk is the joint consequence of hazard-causing factors and hazard-affected bodies. For example, as the population increases, the exposure of the hazard-affected bodies also tends to increase. The high GDP enhances the response ability of government, and the irrigation and water conservancy reduces the vulnerability. Such characteristics of hazard-affected bodies should be coupled with natural factors. In this study, the 16-day moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI and LST data are combined to establish NDVI-Ts space according to different land use types in Yunnan Province, China. And then, TVDIs are calculated through dry and wet edges modeled as a linear fit to data for each land cover type. Next, the efforts are turned to establish an integrated drought assessment index of social factors and TVDI through ascertaining attribute weight based on rough sets theory. Thus, the new CDI (comprehensive drought index) recorded during spring of 2010 and the spatial variations in drought are analyzed and compared with TVDI dataset. Moreover, actual drought risk situation in the study area is given to

  20. Vulnerability Risk Index Profile for Elder Abuse in Community-Dwelling Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, XinQi; Simon, Melissa A.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Elder abuse is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aims to develop a vulnerability index for elder abuse in a community-dwelling population. Design Population-based study Setting Geographically defined community in Chicago. Participants A population-based study was conducted in Chicago of community-dwelling older adults who participated in the Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP). Of the 8,157 participants in the CHAP study, 213 participants were reported to social services agency for suspected elder abuse. Measurements A vulnerability index for elder abuse was constructed from sociodemographic, health-related, and psychosocial factors. The outcomes of interest were reported and confirmed elder abuse. Logistic regression models were used to determine the accuracy of the index with respect to elder abuse outcomes. Results Out of the selected risk index for elder abuse, every one point increase in the 9 item vulnerability index items, there was a two fold increase in the risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 2.19 (2.00–2.40) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 2.19 (1.94–2.47). Compared to the reference group, older adults with 3–4 vulnerability index items had increased risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 2.98 (1.98–4.49) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 3.90, (2.07–7.36); and older adults with 5 or more risk index items, there was an 18 fold increase in risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 18.46 (12.15–28.04) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 26.79 (14.18–50.61). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) statistically derived curves for identifying reported elder abuse ranged between 0.77–0.84 and for predicting confirmed elder abuse ranged between 0.79–0.86. Conclusion The vulnerability risk index demonstrates value for identifying individuals at risk for elder abuse. Additional studies are needed to validate this index in other community dwelling populations. PMID:25180376