Aquatic risk assessment of the new rice herbicide profoxydim

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez, Paloma; Kubitza, Johanna; Peter Dohmen, G.; Tarazona, Jose V.

2006-01-01

A tiered protocol for assessing ecological risks has been applied to the rice pesticide profoxydim. The initial assessment (Tier I) was based on toxicity exposure ratio (TER) calculations based on laboratory data using a worst-case rice scenario. The first refinement (Tier II) was based on direct toxicity assessment (DTA) of water samples collected during a field-mesocosm study. Finally, a higher-tier assessment on the in situ assessment of paddy community responses (field-mesocosm-Tier III) was performed. A successive application of three pesticides, the herbicides azimsulfuron, propanil and the insecticide malathion, was used as reference controls. The refined assessments indicated a lower risk than that predicted from TER estimations. DTA-based Tier II showed toxicity effects only for concentrations above the recommended dose of profoxydim. Effects for reference controls were observed in DTA which were not expected from Tier I. The field-mesocosm study confirmed these effects but also showed that they were transient and of low relevance. - Risk refinement assessment of rice pesticides starting with DTA and moving to community studies is a cost-effective approach, only if required

Methodology in use for the assessment of carcinogenic risk. II. Radiation. Oncology overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-04-01

Oncology Overviews are a service of the International Cancer Research Data Bank (ICRDB) Program of the National Cancer Institute, intended to facilitate and promote the exchange of information between cancer scientists by keeping them aware of literature related to their research being published by other laboratories throughout the world. Each Oncology Overview represents a survey of the literature associated with a selected area of cancer research. It contains abstracts of articles which have been selected and organized by researchers associated with the field. Contents: Assessment of carcinogenic risk from environmental and occupational exposures to ionizing radiation; Assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation used for medical diagnosis or treatment; Assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation following nuclear bomb explosions; Comparison of risk from radiation sources with risk from nonradiation sources; Experimental studies to assess risk of carcinogenesis following exposure to ionizing radiation; Theoretical aspects of dose-response relationships in the assessment of carcinogenic risk from exposure to ionizing radiation; Public policy and standards for acceptable risk from exposure to ionizing radiation; General reviews on the assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiation

Validation study of a quantitative multigene reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay for assessment of recurrence risk in patients with stage II colon cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Gray, Richard G; Quirke, Philip; Handley, Kelly; Lopatin, Margarita; Magill, Laura; Baehner, Frederick L; Beaumont, Claire; Clark-Langone, Kim M; Yoshizawa, Carl N; Lee, Mark; Watson, Drew; Shak, Steven; Kerr, David J

2011-12-10

We developed quantitative gene expression assays to assess recurrence risk and benefits from chemotherapy in patients with stage II colon cancer. We sought validation by using RNA extracted from fixed paraffin-embedded primary colon tumor blocks from 1,436 patients with stage II colon cancer in the QUASAR (Quick and Simple and Reliable) study of adjuvant fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy versus surgery alone. A recurrence score (RS) and a treatment score (TS) were calculated from gene expression levels of 13 cancer-related genes (n = 7 recurrence genes and n = 6 treatment benefit genes) and from five reference genes with prespecified algorithms. Cox proportional hazards regression models and log-rank methods were used to analyze the relationship between the RS and risk of recurrence in patients treated with surgery alone and between TS and benefits of chemotherapy. Risk of recurrence was significantly associated with RS (hazard ratio [HR] per interquartile range, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.74; P = .004). Recurrence risks at 3 years were 12%, 18%, and 22% for predefined low, intermediate, and high recurrence risk groups, respectively. T stage (HR, 1.94; P < .001) and mismatch repair (MMR) status (HR, 0.31; P < .001) were the strongest histopathologic prognostic factors. The continuous RS was associated with risk of recurrence (P = .006) beyond these and other covariates. There was no trend for increased benefit from chemotherapy at higher TS (P = .95). The continuous 12-gene RS has been validated in a prospective study for assessment of recurrence risk in patients with stage II colon cancer after surgery and provides prognostic value that complements T stage and MMR. The TS was not predictive of chemotherapy benefit.

Haloacetic acids in the aquatic environment. Part II: ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanson, Mark L.; Solomon, Keith R.

2004-01-01

Haloacetic acids (HAAs) are environmental contaminants found in aquatic ecosystems throughout the world as a result of both anthropogenic and natural production. The ecological risk posed by these compounds to organisms in freshwater environments, with a specific focus on aquatic macrophytes, was characterized. The plants evaluated were Lemna gibba, Myriophyllum spicatum and M. sibiricum and the HAAs screened were monochloroacetic acid (MCA), dichloroacetic acid (DCA), trichloroacetic acid (TCA), trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) and chlorodifluoroacetic acid (CDFA). Laboratory toxicity data formed the basis of the risk assessment, but field studies were also utilized. The estimated risk was calculated using hazard quotients (HQ), as well as effect measure distributions (EMD) in a modified probabilistic ecological risk assessment. EMDs were used to estimate HAA thresholds of toxicity for use in HQ assessments. This threshold was found to be a more sensitive measure of low toxicity than the no observed effect concentrations (NOEC) or the effective concentration (EC 10 ). Using both deterministic and probabilistic methods, it was found that HAAs do not pose a significant risk to freshwater macrophytes at current environmental concentrations in Canada, Europe or Africa for both single compound and mixture exposures. Still, HAAs are generally found as mixtures and their potential interactions are not fully understood, rendering this phase of the assessment uncertain and justifying further effects characterization. TCA in some environments poses a slight risk to phytoplankton and future concentrations of TFA and CDFA are likely to increase due to their recalcitrant nature, warranting continued environmental surveillance of HAAs. - Current environmental concentrations of haloacetic acids do not pose a risk to aquatic macrophytes, but could impact plankton

Clinical assessment of class II resin-based composites versus preformed metal crowns performed on primary molars in patients at high risk of caries.

Science.gov (United States)

Alyahya, A; Khanum, A; Qudeimat, M

2018-02-01

To compare class II resin composite with preformed metal crowns (PMC) in the treatment of proximal dentinal caries in high caries-risk patients. The charts (270) of paediatric patients with proximal caries of their primary molars were reviewed. Success or failure of a procedure was assessed using the dental notes. Survival analysis was used to calculate the mean survival time (MST) for both procedures. The influence of variables on the mean survival time was investigated. A total of 593 class II resin composites and 243 PMCs were placed in patients ranging between 4-13 years of age. The failure percentage of class II resin composites was 22.6% with the majority having been due to recurrent caries, while the failure percentage of PMCs was 15.2% with the majority due to loss of the crown. There was no significant difference between the MST of class II resin composites and PMCs, 41.3 and 45.6 months respectively (p value = 0.06). In class II resin composites, mesial restorations were associated with lower MST compared to distal restorations (p-value composites and PMCs were comparable when performed on high caries-risk patients.

Risk Assessment of Bioaccumulation Substances. Part II: Description of a Model Framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tamis, J.E.; Vries, de P.; Karman, C.C.

2009-01-01

This report provides a proposal for a framework for risk assessment of bioaccumulative substances, either from produced water discharges or present as background contamination. The proposed framework is such that it is compatible to the current EIF risk assessment models that are used in the

Testing the Predictive Validity of the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Hyesil; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

2018-03-01

Cumulative data on patient fall risk have been compiled in electronic medical records systems, and it is possible to test the validity of fall-risk assessment tools using these data between the times of admission and occurrence of a fall. The Hendrich II Fall Risk Model scores assessed during three time points of hospital stays were extracted and used for testing the predictive validity: (a) upon admission, (b) when the maximum fall-risk score from admission to falling or discharge, and (c) immediately before falling or discharge. Predictive validity was examined using seven predictive indicators. In addition, logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors that significantly affect the occurrence of a fall. Among the different time points, the maximum fall-risk score assessed between admission and falling or discharge showed the best predictive performance. Confusion or disorientation and having a poor ability to rise from a sitting position were significant risk factors for a fall.

Technical assessment of continued wet storage of EBR-II fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pahl, R.G.; Franklin, E.M.; Ebner, M.A.

1996-01-01

A technical assessment of the continued wet storage of EBR-II fuel has been made. Previous experience has shown that in-basin cladding failure occurs by intergranular attack of sensitized cladding, likely assisted by basin water chlorides. Subsequent fuel oxidation is rapid and leads to loss of configuration and release of fission products. The current inventory of EBR-II fuel stored in the ICPP basins is at risk from similar corrosion reactions

STRUCTURE OF MODELS FOR AGGREGATE ASSESSMENT OF FINANCIAL RISK COMMERCIAL BANKS

OpenAIRE

G. Kryshtal

2016-01-01

Conceptual approaches use a structural model for assessment of financial risk commercial banks, namely the risk measurement in combination: a comparison of its capital, calculated based on the standard approach of Basel II advanced approaches of Basel II and the structural model. Analysis of the application of the model in a economics crisis situation, such as the capital adequacy of the commercial banks. Deals with a unified approach to the choice of measure and its risk parameters to measur...

Assessment of severe accident prevention and mitigation features: BWR, Mark II containment design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lehner, J.R.; Hsu, C.J.; Eltawila, F.; Perkins, K.R.; Luckas, W.J.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Pratt, W.T.

1988-07-01

Plant features and operator actions, which have been found to be important in either preventing or mitigating severe accidents in BWRs with Mark II containments (BWR Mark II's) have been identified. These features and actions were developed from insights derived from reviews of in-depth risk assessments performed specifically for the Limerick and Shoreham plants and from other relevant studies. Accident sequences that dominate the core-damage frequency and those accident sequences that are of potentially high consequence were identified. Vulnerabilities of the BWR Mark II to severe-accident containment loads were also noted. In addition, those features of a BWR Mark II, which are important for preventing core damage and are available for mitigating fission-product release to the environment were also identified. This report is issued to provide focus to an analyst examining an individual plant. This report calls attention to plant features and operator actions and provides a list of deterministic attributes for assessing those features and actions found to be helpful in reducing the overall risk for Mark II plants. Thus, the guidance is offered as a resource in examining the subject plant to determine if the same, or similar, plant features and operator actions will be of value in reducing overall plant risk. This report is intended to serve solely as guidance

A generalized Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) for urban drainage RTC

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vezzaro, Luca; Grum, Morten

2012-01-01

An innovative generalized approach for integrated real time control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy tries to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii) the expe......An innovative generalized approach for integrated real time control of urban drainage systems is presented. The Dynamic Overflow Risk Assessment (DORA) strategy tries to minimize the expected overflow risk by considering (i) the water volume presently stored in the drainage network, (ii...... to reduce Combined Sewer Overflow loads and to optimize the flow discharged to the wastewater treatment plant. Also, the inclusion of forecasts and their uncertainty contributed to further improve the performance of drainage systems. The results of this paper will contribute to a wider usage of global RTC...

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

Class II HLA interactions modulate genetic risk for multiple sclerosis

Science.gov (United States)

Dilthey, Alexander T; Xifara, Dionysia K; Ban, Maria; Shah, Tejas S; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A; Alfredsson, Lars; Anderson, Carl A; Attfield, Katherine E; Baranzini, Sergio E; Barrett, Jeffrey; Binder, Thomas M C; Booth, David; Buck, Dorothea; Celius, Elisabeth G; Cotsapas, Chris; D’Alfonso, Sandra; Dendrou, Calliope A; Donnelly, Peter; Dubois, Bénédicte; Fontaine, Bertrand; Fugger, Lars; Goris, An; Gourraud, Pierre-Antoine; Graetz, Christiane; Hemmer, Bernhard; Hillert, Jan; Kockum, Ingrid; Leslie, Stephen; Lill, Christina M; Martinelli-Boneschi, Filippo; Oksenberg, Jorge R; Olsson, Tomas; Oturai, Annette; Saarela, Janna; Søndergaard, Helle Bach; Spurkland, Anne; Taylor, Bruce; Winkelmann, Juliane; Zipp, Frauke; Haines, Jonathan L; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A; Spencer, Chris C A; Stewart, Graeme; Hafler, David A; Ivinson, Adrian J; Harbo, Hanne F; Hauser, Stephen L; De Jager, Philip L; Compston, Alastair; McCauley, Jacob L; Sawcer, Stephen; McVean, Gil

2016-01-01

Association studies have greatly refined the understanding of how variation within the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genes influences risk of multiple sclerosis. However, the extent to which major effects are modulated by interactions is poorly characterized. We analyzed high-density SNP data on 17,465 cases and 30,385 controls from 11 cohorts of European ancestry, in combination with imputation of classical HLA alleles, to build a high-resolution map of HLA genetic risk and assess the evidence for interactions involving classical HLA alleles. Among new and previously identified class II risk alleles (HLA-DRB1*15:01, HLA-DRB1*13:03, HLA-DRB1*03:01, HLA-DRB1*08:01 and HLA-DQB1*03:02) and class I protective alleles (HLA-A*02:01, HLA-B*44:02, HLA-B*38:01 and HLA-B*55:01), we find evidence for two interactions involving pairs of class II alleles: HLA-DQA1*01:01–HLA-DRB1*15:01 and HLA-DQB1*03:01–HLA-DQB1*03:02. We find no evidence for interactions between classical HLA alleles and non-HLA risk-associated variants and estimate a minimal effect of polygenic epistasis in modulating major risk alleles. PMID:26343388

New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

2016-01-01

Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Effect of a Multidisciplinary Fall Risk Assessment on Falls Among Neurology Inpatients

Science.gov (United States)

Hunderfund, Andrea N. Leep; Sweeney, Cynthia M.; Mandrekar, Jayawant N.; Johnson, LeAnn M.; Britton, Jeffrey W.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether the addition of a physician assessment of patient fall risk at admission would reduce inpatient falls on a tertiary hospital neurology inpatient unit. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A physician fall risk assessment was added to the existing risk assessment process (clinical nurse evaluation and Hendrich II Fall Risk Model score with specific fall prevention measures for patients at risk). An order to select either “Patient is” or “Patient is not at high risk of falls by physician assessment” was added to the physician electronic admission order set. Nurses and physicians were instructed to reach consensus when assessments differed. Full implementation occurred in second-quarter 2008. Preimplementation (January 1, 2006, to March 31, 2008) and postimplementation (April 1, 2008, to December 31, 2009) rates of falls were compared on the neurology inpatient unit and on 6 other medical units that did not receive intervention. RESULTS: The rate of falls during the 7 quarters after full implementation was significantly lower than that during the 9 preceding quarters (4.12 vs 5.69 falls per 1000 patient-days; P=.04), whereas the rate of falls on other medical units did not significantly change (2.99 vs 3.33 falls per 1000 patient-days; P=.24, Poisson test). The consensus risk assessment at admission correctly identified patients at risk for falls (14/325 at-risk patients fell vs 0/147 low-risk patients; P=.01, χ2 test), but the Hendrich II Fall Risk Model score, nurse, and physician assessments individually did not. CONCLUSION: A multidisciplinary approach to fall risk assessment is feasible, correctly identifies patients at risk, and was associated with a reduction in inpatient falls. PMID:21193651

Bipolar II disorder as a risk factor for postpartum depression.

Science.gov (United States)

Mandelli, Laura; Souery, Daniel; Bartova, Lucie; Kasper, Siegfried; Montgomery, Stuart; Zohar, Joseph; Mendlewicz, Julien; Serretti, Alessandro

2016-11-01

There is evidence for a bipolar diathesis in postpartum depression (PPD) and women presenting with a first PPD frequently receive a diagnosis of bipolar type II disorder (BD-II). However formal evidence for an association between BD-II and PPD has not yet been reported. In the present study we tested a potential association between BD-II and PPD. Parous women with a diagnosis of bipolar type I disorder (BD-I) (n=93), BD-II (n=36) or major depressive disorder (MDD) (n=444) were considered in the present study. All women were retrospectively evaluated for history of PPD (DSM-IV criteria) and other clinical and socio-demographic features. Women with a history of PDD (n=139, 24%) were younger, younger at illness onset and had more family history for BD compared to women without history of PPD (n=436, 75.9%). Half of BD-II women reported PPD (50%), compared to less than one-third of BD-I and MDD women (respectively 27.5% and 21.6%) (p=0.004). Limitations include the retrospective assessment of PPD and no available data about the timing of postpartum episodes, illness onset or psychiatric care before or after childbirth, and the number of postpartum episodes. BD-II may confer a remarkable risk for PPD, which may be even higher than that of women affected by BD-I disorder. Careful monitoring of BD-II women during the pregnancy and postpartum period, as well as assessment of bipolar features in women with a PPD without a current diagnosis of BD are recommended. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interaction between alcohol dehydrogenase II gene, alcohol consumption, and risk for breast cancer

OpenAIRE

St?rmer, T; Wang-Gohrke, S; Arndt, V; Boeing, H; Kong, X; Kreienberg, R; Brenner, H

2002-01-01

MaeIII Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism in exon 3 of the alcohol dehydrogenase II was assessed in serum from 467 randomly selected German women and 278 women with invasive breast cancer to evaluate the interaction between a polymorphism of the alcohol dehydrogenase II gene, alcohol consumption and risk for breast cancer. In both groups, usual consumption of different alcoholic beverages was asked for using semiquantitative food frequency questionnaires. We used multivariable logistic ...

HTLV-I/II and blood donors: determinants associated with seropositivity in a low risk population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bernadette Catalan Soares

2003-08-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Blood donors in Brazil have been routinely screened for HTLV-I/II since 1993. A study was performed to estimate the prevalence of HTLV-I/II infection in a low risk population and to better understand determinants associated with seropositivity. METHODS: HTLV-I/II seropositive (n=135, indeterminate (n=167 and seronegative blood donors (n=116 were enrolled in an open prevalence prospective cohort study. A cross-sectional epidemiological study of positive, indeterminate and seronegative HTLV-I/II subjects was conducted to assess behavioral and environmental risk factors for seropositivity. HTLV-I/II serological status was confirmed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (EIA and Western blot (WB. RESULTS: The three groups were not homogeneous. HTLV-I/II seropositivity was associated to past blood transfusion and years of schooling, a marker of socioeconomic status, and use of non-intravenous illegal drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The study results reinforce the importance of continuous monitoring and improvement of blood donor selection process.

Predictive validity of the Hendrich fall risk model II in an acute geriatric unit.

Science.gov (United States)

Ivziku, Dhurata; Matarese, Maria; Pedone, Claudio

2011-04-01

Falls are the most common adverse events reported in acute care hospitals, and older patients are the most likely to fall. The risk of falling cannot be completely eliminated, but it can be reduced through the implementation of a fall prevention program. A major evidence-based intervention to prevent falls has been the use of fall-risk assessment tools. Many tools have been increasingly developed in recent years, but most instruments have not been investigated regarding reliability, validity and clinical usefulness. This study intends to evaluate the predictive validity and inter-rater reliability of Hendrich fall risk model II (HFRM II) in order to identify older patients at risk of falling in geriatric units and recommend its use in clinical practice. A prospective descriptive design was used. The study was carried out in a geriatric acute care unit of an Italian University hospital. All over 65 years old patients consecutively admitted to a geriatric acute care unit of an Italian University hospital over 8-month period were enrolled. The patients enrolled were screened for the falls risk by nurses with the HFRM II within 24h of admission. The falls occurring during the patient's hospital stay were registered. Inter-rater reliability, area under the ROC curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and time for the administration were evaluated. 179 elderly patients were included. The inter-rater reliability was 0.87 (95% CI 0.71-1.00). The administration time was about 1min. The most frequently reported risk factors were depression, incontinence, vertigo. Sensitivity and specificity were respectively 86% and 43%. The optimal cut-off score for screening at risk patients was 5 with an area under the ROC curve of 0.72. The risk factors more strongly associated with falls were confusion and depression. As falls of older patients are a common problem in acute care settings it is necessary that the nurses use specific validate and reliable

Applications of the EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roglans, J.: Ragland, W.A.; Hill, D.J.

1993-01-01

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the Experimental Breeder Reactor 11 (EBR-11), a Department of Energy (DOE) Category A research reactor, has recently been completed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), and has been performed with close collaboration between PRA analysts and engineering and operations staff. A product of this Involvement of plant personnel has been a excellent acceptance of the PRA as a tool, which has already resulted In a variety of applications of the EBR-11 PRA. The EBR-11 has been used in support of plant hardware and procedure modifications and In new system design work. A new application in support of the refueling safety analysis will be completed in the near future

Assessment of perioperative mortality risk in patients with infective endocarditis undergoing cardiac surgery: performance of the EuroSCORE I and II logistic models.

Science.gov (United States)

Madeira, Sérgio; Rodrigues, Ricardo; Tralhão, António; Santos, Miguel; Almeida, Carla; Marques, Marta; Ferreira, Jorge; Raposo, Luís; Neves, José; Mendes, Miguel

2016-02-01

The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) has been established as a tool for assisting decision-making in surgical patients and as a benchmark for quality assessment. Infective endocarditis often requires surgical treatment and is associated with high mortality. This study was undertaken to (i) validate both versions of the EuroSCORE, the older logistic EuroSCORE I and the recently developed EuroSCORE II and to compare their performances; (ii) identify predictors other than those included in the EuroSCORE models that might further improve their performance. We retrospectively studied 128 patients from a single-centre registry who underwent heart surgery for active infective endocarditis between January 2007 and November 2014. Binary logistic regression was used to find independent predictors of mortality and to create a new prediction model. Discrimination and calibration of models were assessed by receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curves and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The observed perioperative mortality was 16.4% (n = 21). The median EuroSCORE I and EuroSCORE II were 13.9% interquartile range (IQ) (7.0-35.0) and 6.6% IQ (3.5-18.2), respectively. Discriminative power was numerically higher for EuroSCORE II {area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-0.91]} than for EuroSCORE I [0.75 (95% CI, 0.66-0.85), P = 0.09]. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good calibration for EuroSCORE II (P = 0.08) but not for EuroSCORE I (P = 0.04). EuroSCORE I tended to over-predict and EuroSCORE II to under-predict mortality. Among the variables known to be associated with greater infective endocarditis severity, only prosthetic valve infective endocarditis remained an independent predictor of mortality [odds ratio (OR) 6.6; 95% CI, 1.1-39.5; P = 0.04]. The new model including the EuroSCORE II variables and variables known to be associated with greater infective endocarditis severity showed an AUC of 0

Models for assessing and managing credit risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neogradi Slađana

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

Independent Safety Assessment of the TOPAZ-II space nuclear reactor power system (Revised)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

The Independent Safety Assessment described in this study report was performed to assess the safety of the design and launch plans anticipated by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) in 1993 for a Russian-built, U.S.-modified, TOPAZ-II space nuclear reactor power system. Its conclusions, and the bases for them, were intended to provide guidance for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) management in the event that the DOD requested authorization under section 91b. of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as amended, for possession and use (including ground testing and launch) of a nuclear-fueled, modified TOPAZ-II. The scientists and engineers who were engaged to perform this assessment are nationally-known nuclear safety experts in various disciplines. They met with participants in the TOPAZ-II program during the spring and summer of 1993 and produced a report based on their analysis of the proposed TOPAZ-II mission. Their conclusions were confined to the potential impact on public safety and did not include budgetary, reliability, or risk-benefit analyses

DYNAMIC HYBRIDS UNDER SOLVENCY II: RISK ANALYSIS AND MODIFICATION POSSIBILITIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Maier

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this study, we investigate the new and standardized European system of supervisory called Solvency II. In essence, asymmetric distribution of information between policyholder and insurer triggered this new regulation which aims at better protecting policyholders. Its three-pillar model is about to challenge both, insurers as well as policyholders. The first pillar includes quantitative aspects, the second pillar contains qualitative aspects and the third pillar comprises market transparency and reporting obligations. Underwriting risks, the default risk of a bank and market risks can be identified for the dynamic hybrid. Solvency II covers all these risks in the first pillar and insurers shall deposit sufficient risk-bearing capital. In our analysis, we first identify the dynamic hybrid specific risks under the Solvency II regime und then develop product modifications to reduce this risk.

The histologic risk model is a useful and inexpensive tool to assess risk of recurrence and death in stage I or II squamous cell carcinoma of tongue and floor of mouth.

Science.gov (United States)

Sinha, Namita; Rigby, Matthew H; McNeil, Michael L; Taylor, S Mark; Trites, Jonathan Rb; Hart, Robert D; Bullock, Martin J

2018-02-02

Surgery is the mainstay of treatment for low-stage (stage I/II, ie, T1N0/T2N0) squamous cell carcinoma of oral cavity. However, a significant percentage of low-stage squamous cell carcinoma of oral cavity will develop local recurrence and disease-related mortality. In this study, we stratified 64 patients with low-stage of oral tongue and floor of mouth patients into high-, intermediate- and low-risk categories based on existing histologic risk model. The classification of these risk categories was based on presence or absence of perineural invasion and evaluation of tumor-host junction for worst pattern of invasion and lymphocytic host response. We correlated risk category and other variables with recurrence and death. In a univariate model, high-risk category tumors had a significantly higher rate of recurrence and death due to recurrence compared with low/intermediate-risk categories (P=0.000 and P=0.047, respectively). Controlling for margin status and T-stage, high-risk category had a 12.4 odds ratio of later recurrence when compared with low/intermediate-risk categories, with a P-value of 0.001. In conclusion, we found low-stage oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma patients with high-risk category have a significantly higher risk for recurrence when compared with patients in the low- or intermediate-risk category, even when controlling for margin status and T-stage. These patients may be suitable candidates for adjuvant treatment to decrease morbidity and mortality associated with a recurrence. Our results indicate that the histologic risk model is a useful and simple tool to assess risk of recurrence in stage I or II squamous cell carcinoma of oral cavity.Modern Pathology advance online publication, 2 February 2018; doi:10.1038/modpathol.2017.183.

Hazard waste risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

1986-01-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand

2017-10-01

Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

2017-10-19

An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

RADTRAN II: a computerized model for risk analysis of transportation of radioactive material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, J.M.; Daniel, S.L.; Biringer, B.E.

1980-01-01

The RADTRAN computer code, which formed the basis for the 1977 US generic transportation risk assessment, has been extensively updated. The updated version of the code, denoted RADTRAN II, includes changes based on findings from other transportation risk studies as well as changes based on reevaluation of earlier assumptions, analyses, and computerization techniques. The environmental impact of the transportation of radioactive material can be envisioned as consisting of five components, incident free transport, non-radiological impacts, vehicular accidents, breaches of security/safeguards, and failures of quality assurance. RADTRAN II is designed to evaluate both the incident-free and the accident contribution directly and can be used to evaluate the contributions of breaches of security and quality assurances deviation if some alterations in coding are made. Non-radiological impacts are not addressed

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

World-wide risk assessment of the transportation of radioactive materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ericsson, A.M.; Elert, M.

1983-01-01

The aim of the project reported in this paper is to develop the means and methods for a risk analysis of the transportation of radioactive materials throughout the world. The project was initiated by the Standing Advisory Group on the Safe Transport of Radioactive Materials (SAGSTRAM) of the IAEA. In 1979 the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the IAEA signed an agreement on the development of a model for calculation of the transport risk. Member States of the IAEA are invited to use the model for a risk assessment of the transportation of radioactive materials in their own country. These assessments will be collected and analyzed and a world-wide risk assessment performed. The IAEA has the overall responsibility for the project and administers it. Sweden manages the project and has performed the applied research with the assistance of research support groups which have supplied data and analyses and performed some other parts of the project. An Oversight Committee with participants from eight Member States has reviewed the progress and has given valuable recommendations. It was important that the model had the sophistication and flexibility required for its use by all Member States but still was easy to handle. The risk calculations are performed by the computer code INTERTRAN which is based on the American computer code RADTRAN II developed by Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM. The methodology of the RADTRAN II as well as data and format of the input and output was changed to make the code more internationally oriented. 2 references

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

At-Risk Variant in TCF7L2 for Type II Diabetes Increases Risk of Schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Thomas; Ingason, Andrés; Djurovic, Srdjan

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: Schizophrenia is associated with increased risk of type II diabetes and metabolic disorders. However, it is unclear whether this comorbidity reflects shared genetic risk factors, at-risk lifestyle, or side effects of antipsychotic medication. METHODS: Eleven known risk variants of type...... (SGENE+) using Mantel-Haenszel test. RESULTS: One type II diabetes at-risk allele located in TCF7L2, rs7903146 [T], was associated with schizophrenia in the discovery sample (p = .0052) and in the replication with an odds ratio of 1.07 (95% confidence interval 1.01-1.14, p = .033). CONCLUSION...... II diabetes were genotyped in patients with schizophrenia in a sample of 410 Danish patients, each matched with two healthy control subjects on sex, birth year, and month. Replication was carried out in a large multinational European sample of 4089 patients with schizophrenia and 17,597 controls...

Functional assessment of feet of patients with type II diabetes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vinicius Saura Cardoso

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the incidence of functional changes and risk of developing ulcers in type II diabetic patients seen in Primary Healthcare Units (Unidades Básicas de Saúde- UBS. Methods: A cross-sectional, quantitative and descriptive study comprising 80patients with type II diabetes mellitus (DM aged between 41 to 85 years and attended inthe UBS in the city of Parnaíba-PI. Volunteers responded to the identification form and theMichigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument (MNSI, followed by an evaluation of the lowerlimbs, as follows: achilles and patellar reflex, palpation of arterial pulses (dorsalis pedis and posterior tibial, tactile sensitivity (Monofilament 10g and vibration sensitivity (128Hz tuning fork; identification of the presence of changes such as ingrown toenails, calluses,claw toes and hair loss. Finally, using the information acquired from the assessment, subjects were classified according to the risk of developing wounds. Results: The sample consisted of 76 diabetic patients, with average age of 63.8 ± 10.4 years, 63 (82.8% were female, mean diagnostic time 8.8 ± 7.2 years, average body mass index (BMI 28.2 ± 5.4 kg/m2, with 15.7% of the sample being smokers. The myotatic reflexes and arterial pulses were reduced. Tactile sensitivity was identified in 81.5% and 13.1% did not feel the vibration of the tuning fork. The most dominant changes identified were calluses, 76.3% (n = 58. Risk level 2 of developing ulcers stood out, 52.6% (n = 40. Conclusion: Functional changes were detected in the sample and a classification of risk 2 for developing wounds was found in more than 50% of the assessed patients. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5020/18061230.2013.p563

International Literature Review on WHODAS II (World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule II

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Federici, Stefano

2009-06-01

Full Text Available This review is a critical analysis regarding the study and utilization of the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule II (WHODAS II as a basis for establishing specific criteria for evaluating relevant international scientific literature.The WHODAS II is an instrument developed by the World Health Organisation in order to assess behavioural limitations and restrictions related to an individual’s participation, independent from a medical diagnosis. This instrument was developed by the WHO’s Assessment, Classification and Epidemiology Group within the framework of the WHO/NIH Joint Project on Assessment and Classification of Disablements. To ascertain the international dissemination level of for WHODAS II’s utilization and, at the same time, analyse the studies regarding the psychometric validation of the WHODAS II translation and adaptation in other languages and geographical contests. Particularly, our goal is to highlight which psychometric features have been investigated, focusing on the factorial structure, the reliability, and the validity of this instrument. International literature was researched through the main data bases of indexed scientific production: the Cambridge Scientific Abstracts – CSA, PubMed, and Google Scholar, from 1990 through to December 2008.The following search terms were used:“whodas”, in the field query, plus “title” and “abstract”.The WHODAS II has been used in 54 studies, of which 51 articles are published in international journals, 2 conference abstracts, and one dissertation abstract. Nevertheless, only 7 articles are published in journals and conference proceedings regarding disability and rehabilitation. Others have been published in medical and psychiatric journals, with the aim of indentifying comorbidity correlations in clinical diagnosis concerning patients with mental illness. Just 8 out of 51 articles have studied the psychometric properties of the WHODAS II. The

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

An Independent Scientific Assessment of Well Stimulation in California Volume II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Long, Jane C.S. [California Council on Science and Technology, Sacramento, CA (United States); Feinstein, Laura C. [California Council on Science and Technology, Sacramento, CA (United States); Bachmann, Corinne E. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Birkholzer, Jens T. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Camarillo, Mary Kay [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Domen, Jeremy K. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Foxall, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Houseworth, James [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Jin, Ling [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Jordan, Preston D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Maddalena, Randy L. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); McKone, Thomas E. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Millstein, Dev E. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Reagan, Matthew T. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sandelin, Whitney L. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Stringfellow, William T. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Varadharajan, Charuleka [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Cooley, Heather [Pacific Inst., Oakland, CA (United States); Donnelly, Kristina [Pacific Inst., Oakland, CA (United States); Heberger, Matthew G. [Pacific Inst., Oakland, CA (United States); Hays, Jake [PSE Healthy Energy, Berkeley, CA (United States); Shonkoff, Seth B.C. [PSE Healthy Energy, Berkeley, CA (United States); Brandt, Adam [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Englander, Jacob G. [Stanford Univ., CA (United States); Hamdoun, Amro [Univ. of California of San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States); Nicklisch, Sascha C.T. [Univ. of California of San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States); Harrison, Robert J. [Univ. of California, San Francisco, CA (United States); Wettstein, Zachary S. [Univ. of California, San Francisco, CA (United States); Banbury, Jenner [California State Univ. Stanislaus, Turlock, CA (United States); Cypher, Brian L. [California State Univ. Stanislaus, Turlock, CA (United States); Phillips, Scott E. [California State Univ. Stanislaus, Turlock, CA (United States)

2015-07-01

This study is issued in three volumes. Volume I, issued in January 2015, describes how well stimulation technologies work, how and where operators deploy these technologies for oil and gas production in California, and where they might enable production in the future. Volume II, the present volume, discusses how well stimulation could affect water, atmosphere, seismic activity, wildlife and vegetation, and human health. Volume II reviews available data, and identifies knowledge gaps and alternative practices that could avoid or mitigate these possible impacts. Volume III, also issued in July 2015, presents case studies that assess environmental issues and qualitative risks for specific geographic regions. A final Summary Report summarizes key findings, conclusions and recommendations of all three volumes.

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

Methodology for environmental risk assessment associated with the use of veterinary medicinal products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ioana Valentina Tihulca

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Environmental risk assessment (ERA is mandatory for all new applications for centralized marketing authorization or national regardless of their legal basis. ERA aims to protect the environment. Risk assessment has two phases of veterinary product evaluation possible role of exposure and its effects. Phase I of the ERA isbased on filling a decision tree with 19 questions. If the answers to these questions do not stop the assessment at this stage then is advancing to Phase II. It uses a two stage approach stage A and stage B. The first stage, stage A, studies using simple, less expensive studies. I f the assessment is not complete, then is appealed to Step B to drill ERA. If there is still a risk indicator after filling and assessment in stage B, then, to mitigate risk, is recommended the file discussing and of the proposals for additional data.

Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

2012-12-01

Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

Evaluation of a novel risk assessment method for self-harm associated with Borderline Personality Disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, Sathya; Broadbear, Jillian H; Thompson, Katherine; Correia, Anna; Preston, Martin; Katz, Paul; Trett, Robert

2017-10-01

Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is associated with frequent self-harm and suicidal behaviours. This study compared physician-assessed self-harm risk and intervention choice according to a (i) standard risk assessment and (ii) BPD-specific risk assessment methods. Forty-five junior and senior mental health physicians were assigned to standard or BPD-specific risk training groups. The assessment utilized a BPD case vignette containing four scenarios describing high/low lethality self-harm and chronic/new patterns of self-harm behaviour. Participants chose from among four interventions, each corresponding to a risk category. Standard and BPD-specific groups were alike in their assessment of self-harm risk. Divergence occurred on intervention choice for assessments of low lethality, chronic risk ( pself harm-associated risk, BPD-specific training raised awareness of BPD-appropriate interventions, particularly in the context of chronic patterns of self-harm behaviour. Wider dissemination of BPD-specific risk training may enhance the confidence of mental health clinicians in identifying the nature of self-harm risk as well as the most clinically appropriate interventions for clients with BPD.

Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks.

Science.gov (United States)

Landquist, H; Norrman, J; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M; Lindgren, J F; Rosén, L

2017-12-15

The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts' knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts' estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

A Comparative Risk Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Ji Yong; Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Byung Sik [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2009-10-15

This paper presents the risk impacts of extending the Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) intervals (from five years to ten years) of Yonggwang (YGN) Unit 1 and 2. These risk impacts depended on the annual variances of meteorological data and resident population. Main comparisons were performed between the initial risk assessment (2005) for the purpose of extending ILRT interval and risk reassessment (2009) where the changed plant internal configurations (core inventory and radioisotope release fraction) and plant external alterations (wind directions, rainfall and population distributions) were monitored. The reassessment showed that there was imperceptible risk increase when the ILRT interval was extended compared to the initial risk assessment. In addition, the increased value of the Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) also satisfied the acceptance guideline proposed on Reg. Guide 1.174. The MACCS II code was used for evaluating the offsite consequence analysis. The primary risk index were used as the Probabilistic Population Dose (PPD) by considering the early effects within 80 km. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of YGN 1 and 2 was applied to evaluate the accident frequency of each source term category and the used PSA scope was limited to internal event.

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Validation of an age-modified caries risk assessment program (Cariogram) in preschool children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holgerson, Pernilla Lif; Twetman, Svante; Stecksèn-Blicks, Christina

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVES: (i) To validate caries risk profiles assessed with a computer program against actual caries development in preschool children, (ii) to study the possible impact of a preventive program on the risk profiles, and (iii) to compare the individual risk profiles longitudinally. MATERIAL...... of sugar. The majority of the children who changed category displayed a lowered risk at 7 years. The intervention program seemed to impair the predictive abilities of Cariogram. CONCLUSION: A modified Cariogram applied on preschool children was not particularly useful in identifying high caries risk...

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

Leu7Pro polymorphism of PreproNPY associated with an increased risk for type II diabetes in middle-aged subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Ukkola, O; Kesäniemi, Y A

2007-09-01

Neuropeptide Y (NPY) plays a central in energy homeostasis and potentially in the development of obesity-related comorbidities, like type II diabetes. As the PreproNPY Leu7Pro polymorphism probably changes the intracellular processing of the synthesized preproNPY peptide, we assessed the hypothesis that PreproNPY Leu7Pro polymorphism is a risk factor for type II diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance and hypertension. Blood pressure recordings and oral glucose tolerance test were performed in the hypertensive (n=515) and control cohorts (n=525) of our well-defined Oulu Project Elucidating Risk of Atherosclerosis (OPERA) study. The prevalence of type II diabetes was 9% (n=93). The genotypes, insulin and glucose metabolism indexes and plasma ghrelin of the subjects were determined. Pro7 allele frequencies were 5.9, 5.3 and 11.3% in the total cohort, in subjects without and with type II diabetes, respectively. The PreproNPY Pro7 carrier status was a significant risk factor for type II diabetes, and the effect remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, waist circumference and study group (odds ratio=3.02, confidence interval: 1.67-5.44 and Pghrelin levels compared to non-carriers. The PreproNPY Pro7 allele is associated with an increased risk for type II diabetes. The risk seems to be associated with a higher insulin resistance among Pro7 carriers whereas low ghrelin concentrations in Pro7 carriers are possibly a consequence of high insulin levels.

Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

Science.gov (United States)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

2017-04-01

Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the

Mortality Risk After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: Analysis of the Predictive Accuracy of the Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry Risk Assessment Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Codner, Pablo; Malick, Waqas; Kouz, Remi; Patel, Amisha; Chen, Cheng-Han; Terre, Juan; Landes, Uri; Vahl, Torsten Peter; George, Isaac; Nazif, Tamim; Kirtane, Ajay J; Khalique, Omar K; Hahn, Rebecca T; Leon, Martin B; Kodali, Susheel

2018-05-08

Risk assessment tools currently used to predict mortality in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were designed for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We aim to assess the accuracy of the TAVI dedicated American College of Cardiology / Transcatheter Valve Therapies (ACC/TVT) risk score in predicting mortality outcomes. Consecutive patients (n=1038) undergoing TAVI at a single institution from 2014 to 2016 were included. The ACC/TVT registry mortality risk score, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons - Patient Reported Outcomes (STS-PROM) score and the EuroSCORE II were calculated for all patients. In hospital and 30-day all-cause mortality rates were 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The ACC/TVT risk stratification tool scored higher for patients who died in-hospital than in those who survived the index hospitalization (6.4 ± 4.6 vs. 3.5 ± 1.6, p = 0.03; respectively). The ACC/TVT score showed a high level of discrimination, C-index for in-hospital mortality 0.74, 95% CI [0.59 - 0.88]. There were no significant differences between the performance of the ACC/TVT registry risk score, the EuroSCORE II and the STS-PROM for in hospital and 30-day mortality rates. The ACC/TVT registry risk model is a dedicated tool to aid in the prediction of in-hospital mortality risk after TAVI.

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Current methods in risk assessment of genotoxic chemicals.

Science.gov (United States)

Cartus, Alexander; Schrenk, Dieter

2017-08-01

Chemical contaminants and residues are undesired chemicals occurring in consumer products such as food and drugs, at the workplace and in the environment, i.e. in air, soil and water. These compounds can be detected even at very low concentrations and lead frequently to considerable concerns among consumers and in the media. Thus it is a major challenge for modern toxicology to provide transparent and versatile tools for the risk assessment of such compounds in particular with respect to human health. Well-known examples of toxic contaminants are dioxins or mercury (in the environment), mycotoxins (from infections by molds) or acrylamide (from thermal treatment of food). The process of toxicological risk assessment of such chemicals is based on i) the knowledge of their contents in food, air, water etc., ii) the routes and extent of exposure of humans, iii) the toxicological properties of the compound, and, iv) its mode(s) of action. In this process quantitative dose-response relationships, usually in experimental animals, are of outstanding importance. For a successful risk assessment, in particular of genotoxic chemicals, several conditions and models such as the Margin of Exposure (MoE) approach or the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) concept exist, which will be discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Critical Care Nurses Inadequately Assess SAPS II Scores of Very Ill Patients in Real Life

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas Perren

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Reliable ICU severity scores have been achieved by various healthcare workers but nothing is known regarding the accuracy in real life of severity scores registered by untrained nurses. Methods. In this retrospective multicentre audit, three reviewers independently reassessed 120 SAPS II scores. Correlation and agreement of the sum-scores/variables among reviewers and between nurses and the reviewers’ gold standard were assessed globally and for tertiles. Bland and Altman (gold standard—nurses of sum scores and regression of the difference were determined. A logistic regression model identifying risk factors for erroneous assessments was calculated. Results. Correlation for sum scores among reviewers was almost perfect (mean ICC = 0.985. The mean (±SD nurse-registered SAPS II sum score was 40.3±20.2 versus 44.2±24.9 of the gold standard (32 points scores. The lowest agreement was found in high SAPS II tertiles for haemodynamics (k = 0.45–0.51. Conclusions. In real life, nurse-registered SAPS II scores of very ill patients are inaccurate. Accuracy of scores was not associated with nurses’ characteristics.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

Assessment of ulceration risk in diabetic individuals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luz Marina Alfonso Dutra

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To identify the risk factors for foot ulceration through the tracing of diabetic peripheral neuropathy and peripheral arterial disease in individuals with type I and II diabetes, who were assisted in reference centers of the Federal District, Brazil. Method: a cross-sectional and analytical study, with the assessment of 117 individuals in outpatient clinics of the Federal District. Continuous variables were compared through Mann-Whitney test, and categorized variables, through Chi-square test for univariate analysis and Logistics regression test for multivariate analysis. Results: painful diabetic peripheral neuropathy was present in 37 (75.5% of the individuals with neuropathy. Deformities and loss of protective plant sensibility were related to neuropathy (p=0.014 and p=0.001, respectively. Of the 40 (34.2% individuals in the sample who presented peripheral arterial disease, 26 (65% presented calcification risk. Conclusion: signs of painful peripheral polyneuropathy, peripheral arterial disease, deformities, loss of protective plantar sensibility, and dry skin were identified as risk factors for ulceration.

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily - Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Grezio, A.; Gasparini, P.; Marzocchi, W.; Patera, A.; Tinti, S.

2012-01-01

We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.

NKS-B NordRisk II: Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe - Summary report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauritzen, B.

2011-05-01

The objective of the NordRisk II project has been to derive practical means for assessing the risks from long-range atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials. An atlas over different atmospheric dispersion and deposition scenarios has been developed using historical numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data. The NWP model data covers three years spanning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the atlas considers radioactive releases from 16 release sites in and near the Nordic countries. A statistical analysis of the long-range dispersion and deposition patterns is undertaken to quantify the mean dispersion and deposition as well as the variability. Preliminary analyses show that the large-scale atmospheric dispersion and deposition is near-isotropic, irrespective of the release site and detailed climatology, and allows for a simple parameterization of the global dispersion and deposition patterns. The atlas and the underlying data are made available in a format compatible with the ARGOS decision support system, and have been implemented in ARGOS. (Author)

NKS-B NordRisk II: Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe - Summary report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lauritzen, B. (Technical Univ. of Denmark, Risoe National Lab. for Sustainable Energy. Radiation Research Div., Roskilde (Denmark))

2011-05-15

The objective of the NordRisk II project has been to derive practical means for assessing the risks from long-range atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials. An atlas over different atmospheric dispersion and deposition scenarios has been developed using historical numerical weather prediction (NWP) model data. The NWP model data covers three years spanning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the atlas considers radioactive releases from 16 release sites in and near the Nordic countries. A statistical analysis of the long-range dispersion and deposition patterns is undertaken to quantify the mean dispersion and deposition as well as the variability. Preliminary analyses show that the large-scale atmospheric dispersion and deposition is near-isotropic, irrespective of the release site and detailed climatology, and allows for a simple parameterization of the global dispersion and deposition patterns. The atlas and the underlying data are made available in a format compatible with the ARGOS decision support system, and have been implemented in ARGOS. (Author)

Assessment of Integrated Information System (IIS) in organization ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Assessment of Integrated Information System (IIS) in organization. ... to enable the Information System (IS) managers, as well as top management to understand the ... since organisational and strategic aspects in IIS should also be considered.

Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

2009-04-01

The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.

Assessment of risk factors for development of Type-II diabetes mellitus among working women in Berhampur, Orissa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malini D

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives: 1 Assess general health condition and anthropological parameters of the working women. 2 Identify prevalence of Type-II Diabetes among them. 3 Assess risk factors associated with development of diabetes. 4 Educate them about Life Style Modifications. Materials and Methods: A cross sectional study was carried out in six educational institutes. A total of 100 working women were selected as study population. During the two-month study period, Fasting Blood Sugar (FBS was estimated to identify the diabetics and the Impaired Glucose Tolerance (IGT. Information from the study population was collected through pre-tested questionnaire using several anthropometric measurements. Results: Out of 100 women, 24 were having FBS compatible with IGT or diabetes. The incidence was highest in 46 to 55 yr age group. 75% of women with diabetes or IGT were in higher income group. Body Mass Index was more than 25 kg/m 2 in maximum (75% women having diabetes or IGT. 92% women with diabetes or IGT had their Waist Hip Ratio ≥0.85. Moreover, orientation towards healthy life style modification to control diabetes and its prevention was poor among the study population. Conclusion: Prevalence of diabetes and IGT was higher among urban working women and is increasing with increase in age. Obesity plays a major role in development of Type 2 diabetes. Several long- and short-term steps should be taken for promotion of healthy life style modifications to prevent diabetes and emergence of its complications.

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the inactive uriniferous lignite ashing site near Belfield, North Dakota

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-08-01

This Baseline Risk Assessment of Ground Water Contamination at the Inactive Uraniferous Lignite Ashing Site Near Belfield, North Dakota, evaluates potential impacts to public health or the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the site where coal containing uranium was burned to produce uranium. The US Department of Energy`s Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is evaluating plans to remedy soil and ground water contamination at the site. Phase I of the UMTRA Project consists of determining the extent of soil contamination. Phase II of the UMTRA Project consists of evaluating ground water contamination. Under Phase II, results of this risk assessment will help determine what remedial actions may be necessary for contaminated ground water at the site. This risk assessment evaluates the potential risks to human health and the environment resulting from exposure to contaminated ground water as it relates to historic processing activities at the site. Potential risk is quantified for constituents introduced from the processing activities, and not for those constituents naturally occurring in water quality in the site vicinity. Background ground water quality has the potential to cause adverse health effects from exposure through drinking. Any risks associated with contaminants attributable to site activities are incremental to these risks from background ground water quality. This incremental risk from site-related contaminants is quantified in this risk assessment. The baseline risk from background water quality is incorporated only into the assessment of potential chemical interactions and the definition of the overall site condition.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the inactive uraniferous lignite ashing site near Belfield, North Dakota

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-08-01

This Baseline Risk Assessment of Ground Water Contamination at the Inactive Uraniferous Lignite Ashing Site Near Belfield, North Dakota, evaluates potential impacts to public health or the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the site where coal containing uranium was burned to produce uranium. The US Department of Energy's Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is evaluating plans to remedy soil and ground water contamination at the site. Phase I of the UMTRA Project consists of determining the extent of soil contamination. Phase II of the UMTRA Project consists of evaluating ground water contamination. Under Phase II, results of this risk assessment will help determine what remedial actions may be necessary for contaminated ground water at the site. This risk assessment evaluates the potential risks to human health and the environment resulting from exposure to contaminated ground water as it relates to historic processing activities at the site. Potential risk is quantified for constituents introduced from the processing activities, and not for those constituents naturally occurring in water quality in the site vicinity. Background ground water quality has the potential to cause adverse health effects from exposure through drinking. Any risks associated with contaminants attributable to site activities are incremental to these risks from background ground water quality. This incremental risk from site-related contaminants is quantified in this risk assessment. The baseline risk from background water quality is incorporated only into the assessment of potential chemical interactions and the definition of the overall site condition

Chemical Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

2014-12-01

Tsunamis are low frequency but high impact natural disasters. In 2004, the Boxing Day tsunami killed hundreds of thousands of people from many nations along the coastlines of the Indian Ocean. Tsunami run-up exceeded 35 m. Seven years later, and in spite of some of the best warning technologies and levels of preparedness in the world, the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in Japan dramatically showed the limitations of scientific knowledge on tsunami sources, coastal impacts and mitigation measures. The experience from Japan raised serious questions on how to improve the resilience of coastal communities, to upgrade the performance of coastal defenses, to adopt a better risk management, and also on the strategies and priorities for the reconstruction of damaged coastal areas. Societal resilience requires the reinforcement of capabilities to manage and reduce risk at national and local scales.ASTARTE (Assessment STrategy And Risk for Tsunami in Europe), a 36-month FP7 project, aims to develop a comprehensive strategy to mitigate tsunami impact in this region. To achieve this goal, an interdisciplinary consortium has been assembled. It includes all CTWPs of NEAM and expert institutions across Europe and worldwide. ASTARTE will improve i) basic knowledge of tsunami generation and recurrence going beyond simple catalogues, with novel empirical data and new statistical analyses for assessing long-term recurrence and hazards of large events in sensitive areas of NEAM, ii) numerical techniques for tsunami simulation, with focus on real-time codes and novel statistical emulation approaches, and iii) methods for assessment of hazard, vulnerability, and risk. ASTARTE will also provide i) guidelines for tsunami Eurocodes, ii) better tools for forecast and warning for CTWPs and NTWCs, and iii) guidelines for decision makers to increase sustainability and resilience of coastal communities. In summary, ASTARTE will develop basic scientific and technical elements allowing for a significant

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

A comparative study of the use of different risk-assessment models in Danish municipalities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Kresta Munkholt

2018-01-01

Risk-assessment models are widely used in casework involving vulnerable children and families. Internationally, there are a number of different kinds of models with great variation in regard to the characteristics of factors that harm children. Lists of factors have been made but most of them give...... very little advice on how the factors should be weighted. This paper will address the use of risk-assessment models in six different Danish municipalities. The paper presents a comparative analysis and discussion of differences and similarities between three models: the Integrated Children’s System...... (ICS), the Signs of Safety (SoS) model and models developed by the municipalities themselves (MM). The analysis will answer the following two key questions: (i) to which risk and protective factors do the caseworkers give most weight in the risk assessment? and (ii) does each of the different models...

An assessment of BWR [boiling water reactor] Mark-II containment challenges, failure modes, and potential improvements in performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, D.L.; Jones, K.R.; Dallman, R.J.; Wagner, K.C.

1990-07-01

This report assesses challenges to BWR Mark II containment integrity that could potentially arise from severe accidents. Also assessed are some potential improvements that could prevent core damage or containment failure, or could mitigate the consequences of such failure by reducing the release of fission products to the environment. These challenges and improvements are analyzed via a limited quantitative risk/benefit analysis of a generic BWR/4 reactor with Mark II containment. Point estimate frequencies of the dominant core damage sequences are obtained and simple containment event trees are constructed to evaluate the response of the containment to these severe accident sequences. The resulting containment release modes are then binned into source term release categories, which provide inputs to the consequence analysis. The output of the consequences analysis is used to construct an overall base case risk profile. Potential improvements and sensitivities are evaluated by modifying the event tree spilt fractions, thus generating a revised risk profile. Several important sensitivity cases are examined to evaluate the impact of phenomenological uncertainties on the final results. 75 refs., 25 figs., 65 tabs

Oral Assessment Kit, Levels II & III. Draft.

Science.gov (United States)

Agrelo-Gonzalez, Maria; And Others

The assessment packet includes a series of oral tests to help develop speaking as an integral part of second language instruction at levels II and III. It contains: 8 mini-tests for use at level II; 9 mini-tests for use at level III; a rating scale and score sheet masters for evaluating performance on these tests; and a collection of suggested…

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Performance assessment, participative processes and value judgements. Report from the first RISCOM II workshop

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andersson, Kjell [Karinta-Konsult, Taeby (Sweden); Lilja, Christina [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden)] (eds.)

2001-12-01

This workshop was the first one in a series of three workshops within the RISCOM-II project. The aim was to gather the status of the project as a starting point to enhance discussions between project participants and with a number of invited participants. The seminar also included two presentations from the OECD/NEA on NEA work related to stake holder participation, as well as the EC Concerted Action COWAM. Discussions were held in direct connection to the talks and in special sessions. The first day of the workshop entitled Value judgements,risk communication and performance assessment was moderated by Magnus Westerlind (SKI), the RISCOM-II coordinator. The second day was entitled Case studies exploring implications for the practical development of risk communication and was moderated by Anna Littleboy, UK Nirex Ltd. The workshop was opened by Thierry Devries, EDF. He welcomed the participants to Paris and gave some remarks about the French nuclear waste management situation and highlighted the significant French and EDF participation in RISCOM-II. He meant that the project should have possibilities to enhance transparency in nuclear waste programmes and noted that the new concept of stretching, introduced by RISCOM, is already is use. In the following the talks given at the workshop and the discussion that took place are summarized. Appendix 3 gives a brief overview of the RISCOM-II project.

Performance assessment, participative processes and value judgements. Report from the first RISCOM II workshop

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Kjell; Lilja, Christina

2001-12-01

This workshop was the first one in a series of three workshops within the RISCOM-II project. The aim was to gather the status of the project as a starting point to enhance discussions between project participants and with a number of invited participants. The seminar also included two presentations from the OECD/NEA on NEA work related to stake holder participation, as well as the EC Concerted Action COWAM. Discussions were held in direct connection to the talks and in special sessions. The first day of the workshop entitled Value judgements,risk communication and performance assessment was moderated by Magnus Westerlind (SKI), the RISCOM-II coordinator. The second day was entitled Case studies exploring implications for the practical development of risk communication and was moderated by Anna Littleboy, UK Nirex Ltd. The workshop was opened by Thierry Devries, EDF. He welcomed the participants to Paris and gave some remarks about the French nuclear waste management situation and highlighted the significant French and EDF participation in RISCOM-II. He meant that the project should have possibilities to enhance transparency in nuclear waste programmes and noted that the new concept of stretching, introduced by RISCOM, is already is use. In the following the talks given at the workshop and the discussion that took place are summarized. Appendix 3 gives a brief overview of the RISCOM-II project

MATILDA Version-2: Rough Earth TIALD Model for Laser Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Hilly Terrain - Part II

Science.gov (United States)

2017-07-28

risk assessment for “unsafe” scenarios. Recently, attention in the DoD has turned to Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models [5,6] as an...corresponding to the CRA undershoot boundary. The magenta- coloured line represents the portion of the C-RX(U) circle that would contribute to the...Tertiary Precaution Surface. Undershoot related laser firing restrictions within the green- coloured C-RX(U) can be ignored. Figure 34

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

[Diabetic foot risk in patients with type II diabetes mellitus in a family medicine unit].

Science.gov (United States)

Márquez-Godínez, S A; Zonana-Nacach, A; Anzaldo-Campos, M C; Muñoz-Martínez, J A

2014-01-01

To determine the risk of diabetic foot in patients with type II diabetes mellitus (DM) seen in a Family Medicine Unit. The study included type II DM patients with a disease duration ≥ 5 years seen in a Family Medicine Unit, Tijuana, Mexico, during September-December 2011. Neuropathy was assessed with the Diabetic Neuropathy Symptom questionnaire, and pressure sensation using a 10-g Semmes-Weinstein monofilament. A patient had a high risk of diabetic foot if there was sensitivity loss, foot deformities, and non-palpable pedal pulses. We studied 205 patients with an average (± SD) age and DM duration of 59 ± 10 years and 10.7 ± 6.7 years, respectively. Ninety one patients (44%) had a high risk of developing diabetic foot, and it was associated with; an education of less than 6 years (OR 2.3; 95%CI: 1-1-4.1), DM disease duration ≥ 10 years (OR 5.1; 95%CI: 2.8-9.4), female gender (OR 2.0; 95%CI: 1.1-3.6), monthly familiar income diabetic neuropathy, since they have a high risk of diabetic foot. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Tools for assessing fall risk in the elderly: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Seong-Hi

2018-01-01

The prevention of falls among the elderly is arguably one of the most important public health issues in today's aging society. The aim of this study was to assess which tools best predict the risk of falls in the elderly. Electronic searches were performed using Medline, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, CINAHL, etc., using the following keywords: "fall risk assessment", "elderly fall screening", and "elderly mobility scale". The QUADAS-2 was applied to assess the internal validity of the diagnostic studies. Selected studies were meta-analyzed with MetaDisc 1.4. A total of 33 studies were eligible out of the 2,321 studies retrieved from selected databases. Twenty-six assessment tools for fall risk were used in the selected articles, and they tended to vary based on the setting. The fall risk assessment tools currently used for the elderly did not show sufficiently high predictive validity for differentiating high and low fall risks. The Berg Balance scale and Mobility Interaction Fall chart showed stable and high specificity, while the Downton Fall Risk Index, Hendrich II Fall Risk Model, St. Thomas's Risk Assessment Tool in Falling elderly inpatients, Timed Up and Go test, and Tinetti Balance scale showed the opposite results. We concluded that rather than a single measure, two assessment tools used together would better evaluate the characteristics of falls by the elderly that can occur due to a multitude of factors and maximize the advantages of each for predicting the occurrence of falls.

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone, Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Vegt, R G

2018-02-26

This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio-economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision-making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Outage Risk Assessment and Management (ORAM) technology to improve outage safety and economics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kalra, S.P.

2004-01-01

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has undertaken an aggressive program, called ORAM (Outage Risk Assessment and Management), to provide utilities with tools and technology to assist in managing risk during the planning and conduct of outages. The ORAM program consists of the following 6 steps: i) Perform utility surveys and visits on shutdown risk management needs, ii) Perform probabilistic shutdown safety assessments (PSSAs) to identify generic insights that can be incorporated into risk management guidelines and identify selected areas for the development of contingency actions, iii) Develop risk management guidelines (RMG's) that provide a systematic approach to the planning and conduct of outages from a safety perspective. Incorporate insights from the shutdown safety assessments and other operating experience into the RMG's. iv) Develop selected contingency actions including a thermalhydraulic tool kit to address higher risk time periods and activities identified in the shutdown safety assessments, v) Develop computer software that integrates all of the above capability into an easy to use tool for effective shutdown operation management for utilities, vi) Provide assistance in the transfer of this technology and the application of these tools. This paper briefly describes the technical approach and tools developed under EPRI's ORAM program and its applications for improving outage safety and economics. (author)

Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily – Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Grezio

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial and location (streets; and (iii the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.

Assessing the Frequency and Material Consequences of Collisions with Vessels Lying at an Anchorage in Line with IALA iWrap MkII

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hans-Christoph Burmeister

2014-03-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a collision model for ships underway and temporary objects as an extension to state-of-the-art maritime risk assessment like IALA iWrap MkII. It gives a brief review of frequency modeling's and consequence calculation theory as well as its applications, before it analogously derives a model to assess the risk of anchorage areas. Subsequently, its benefit is demonstrated by an example scenario.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

Assessing Banks’ Cost of Complying with Basel II

OpenAIRE

David VanHoose

2007-01-01

This policy brief assesses the implications of Basel II for bank regulatory compliance costs. In spite of widespread complaints by bankers about the costs of complying with Basel II rules, the academic literature has given surprisingly little attention to quantifying these costs. The brief discusses estimates of Basel II compliance costs based on commonly utilized rules of thumb and on survey data collected by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). In addition, it utilizes OCC b...

THE SOLVENCY II APPROACH ON THE CAPITAL CHARGE FOR THE NON-LIFE CATASTROPHIC RISK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ciumas Cristina

2014-07-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses a current issue: the assessment and the establishment of the capital charge for the non-life catastrophic risk (cat risk in terms of Solvency II Directive. Firstly we’ll present several aspects on the conditions and the defining elements of Solvency II Directive implementation, by positioning us in the underwriting risk module, cat risk being a component of it. Nowadays the cat risk is a concern for the insurance companies and in order to have an harmonized legislation on the insurance industry for all Member States of the European Union this was a sensitive topic being presented various approaches regarding the methods used for determining the level of the capital charge. We’ll present the main methods proposed in the Quantitative Impact Studies QIS4: standard approach, scenarios and personalized scenarios and also those proposed in QIS5: standardised scenarios and factor-based approach. Our purpose is to illustrate the situations when each alternative is most efficient to be used and also the steps taken from one quantitative impact study to another in order to have an accurate method of the cat risk assessment. Taking into account that these are standardised formulas, there are certain cases when the results are not consistent with the reality, especially for the insurers with a different structure of the insured portfolio, for example those having a large part of the insurance policies issued for a single line of business. In these cases it is recommended to use undertaking specific parameters (USP. Once presented these methods we’ll offer an example for the calculation of the capital charge for the earthquake risk using standardised scenarios for Natural Disaster Insurance Pool (PAID. In order to achieve this goal we’ll perform an analysis of the mandatory household insurance policies against natural disasters (PAD policies in force in December 2013, these being grouped on CRESTA zones to determine the total

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

Regulatory activity based risk model identifies survival of stage II and III colorectal carcinoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Gang; Dong, Chuanpeng; Wang, Xing; Hou, Guojun; Zheng, Yu; Xu, Huilin; Zhan, Xiaohui; Liu, Lei

2017-11-17

Clinical and pathological indicators are inadequate for prognosis of stage II and III colorectal carcinoma (CRC). In this study, we utilized the activity of regulatory factors, univariate Cox regression and random forest for variable selection and developed a multivariate Cox model to predict the overall survival of Stage II/III colorectal carcinoma in GSE39582 datasets (469 samples). Patients in low-risk group showed a significant longer overall survival and recurrence-free survival time than those in high-risk group. This finding was further validated in five other independent datasets (GSE14333, GSE17536, GSE17537, GSE33113, and GSE37892). Besides, associations between clinicopathological information and risk score were analyzed. A nomogram including risk score was plotted to facilitate the utilization of risk score. The risk score model is also demonstrated to be effective on predicting both overall and recurrence-free survival of chemotherapy received patients. After performing Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) between high and low risk groups, we found that several cell-cell interaction KEGG pathways were identified. Funnel plot results showed that there was no publication bias in these datasets. In summary, by utilizing the regulatory activity in stage II and III colorectal carcinoma, the risk score successfully predicts the survival of 1021 stage II/III CRC patients in six independent datasets.

A Method for Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management of Rockbursts in Drill and Blast Tunnels

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Guo-Feng; Feng, Xia-Ting; Feng, Guang-Liang; Chen, Bing-Rui; Chen, Dong-Fang; Duan, Shu-Qian

2016-08-01

Focusing on the problems caused by rockburst hazards in deep tunnels, such as casualties, damage to construction equipment and facilities, construction schedule delays, and project cost increase, this research attempts to present a methodology for dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts in D&B tunnels. The basic idea of dynamic risk assessment and management of rockbursts is determined, and methods associated with each step in the rockburst risk assessment and management process are given, respectively. Among them, the main parts include a microseismic method for early warning the occurrence probability of rockburst risk, an estimation method that aims to assess potential consequences of rockburst risk, an evaluation method that utilizes a new quantitative index considering both occurrence probability and consequences for determining the level of rockburst risk, and the dynamic updating. Specifically, this research briefly describes the referenced microseismic method of warning rockburst, but focuses on the analysis of consequences and associated risk assessment and management of rockburst. Using the proposed method of risk assessment and management of rockburst, the occurrence probability, potential consequences, and the level of rockburst risk can be obtained in real-time during tunnel excavation, which contributes to the dynamic optimisation of risk mitigation measures and their application. The applicability of the proposed method has been verified by those cases from the Jinping II deep headrace and water drainage tunnels at depths of 1900-2525 m (with a length of 11.6 km in total for D&B tunnels).

Complementary use of life cycle assessment and risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials: Lessons learned from chemicals?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grieger, Khara D.; Laurent, Alexis; Miseljic, Mirko

2013-01-01

Successful strategies to handle the potential health and environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENM) often rely upon the well-established frameworks of life cycle assessment (LCA) and risk assessment (RA). However, current research and specific guidance on how to actually apply these two...... scientific research efforts have taken into account some key lessons learned from past experiences with chemicals at the same time that many key challenges remain to applying these frameworks to ENM. In that setting, two main proposed approaches to use LCA and RA together for ENM are identified: i) LC......-based RA, similar to traditional RA applied in a life cycle perspective, and ii) RA-complemented LCA, similar to conventional LCA supplemented by RA in specific life cycle steps. This study finds that these two approaches for using LCA and RA together for ENM are similar to those made for chemicals...

Helicobacter pylori-Induced Chronic Gastritis and Assessing Risks for Gastric Cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gonzalo Carrasco

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Chronic gastritis is an inflammation of the gastric mucosa and has multiple etiologies. Here we discuss the pathological alterations induced by Helicobacter pylori (HP leading to chronic gastritis and the epigenetic bases underlying these changes. We review the histology of the normal gastric mucosa and overview the role of HP in the multistep cascade of GC. We attempt to define the role of the Operative Link for Gastritis Assessment (OLGA staging system in assessing the risk of GC. The epigenetic bases of chronic gastritis, mainly DNA methylation, are presented through examples such as (i the methylation of the promoter region of E-cadherin in HP-induced chronic gastritis and its reversion after HP eradication and (ii the association of methylation of the promoter region of Reprimo, a p53-mediated cell cycle arrest gene, with aggressive HP strains in high risk areas for GC. In addition, we discuss the finding of RPRM as a circulating cell-free DNA, offering the opportunity for noninvasive risk assessment of GC. Finally, the integration of OLGA and tissue biomarkers, by systems pathology approach, suggests that severe atrophy has a greater risk for GC development if, in addition, overexpressed p73. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01774266.

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

[Diagnostic accuracy of malignancy risk index II in post-menopausal women with adnexal tumours].

Science.gov (United States)

Treviño-Báez, Joaquín Darío; Cantú-Cruz, Javier Alejandro; Medina-Mercado, Javier; Abundis, Alberto

2016-01-01

The purpose of the diagnostic evaluation of adnexal tumours is to exclude the possibility of malignancy. The malignancy risk index II identifies patients at high risk for ovarian cancer. The cut-off value is greater than 200. To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of malignancy risk index II in post-menopausal women with adnexal tumours in relation to the histopathological results. A total of 138 women with an adnexal mass were studied. The malignancy risk index II was determined in all of them. They were divided into two groups according to the histopathology results; 69 patients with benign tumours and 69 patients with malignant tumours. A diagnostic test type analysis was performed with respect to the results of malignancy risk index II ≤ 200 or greater than this. The percentages and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. The accuracy was 81.8% (75.5-88.3), sensitivity 76.8% (66.9-86.7), specificity 87% (79.1-94.9), with a positive predictive value of 85.5% (76.7-94.3), and a negative predictive value of 78.9% (69.7-88.1). The positive likelihood ratio was 590, and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.266. The malignancy risk index II has good performance in the proper classification of post-menopausal women with adnexal masses, both benign and malignant, with an accuracy of 81.8%. Copyright © 2015 Academia Mexicana de Cirugía A.C. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Selecting and applying indicators of ecosystem collapse for risk assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Rowland, Jessica A; Nicholson, Emily; Murray, Nicholas J; Keith, David A; Lester, Rebecca E; Bland, Lucie M

2018-03-12

Ongoing ecosystem degradation and transformation are key threats to biodiversity. Measuring ecosystem change towards collapse relies on monitoring indicators that quantify key ecological processes. Yet little guidance is available on selecting and implementing indicators for ecosystem risk assessment. Here, we reviewed indicator use in ecological studies of decline towards collapse in marine pelagic and temperate forest ecosystems. We evaluated the use of indicator selection methods, indicator types (geographic distribution, abiotic, biotic), methods of assessing multiple indicators, and temporal quality of time series. We compared these ecological studies to risk assessments in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List of Ecosystems (RLE), where indicators are used to estimate ecosystem collapse risk. We found that ecological studies and RLE assessments rarely reported how indicators were selected, particularly in terrestrial ecosystems. Few ecological studies and RLE assessments quantified ecosystem change with all three indicator types, and indicators types used varied between marine and terrestrial ecosystem. Several studies used indices or multivariate analyses to assess multiple indicators simultaneously, but RLE assessments did not, as RLE guidelines advise against them. Most studies and RLE assessments used time series spanning at least 30 years, increasing the chance of reliably detecting change. Limited use of indicator selection protocols and infrequent use of all three indicator types may hamper the ability to accurately detect changes. To improve the value of risk assessments for informing policy and management, we recommend using: (i) explicit protocols, including conceptual models, to identify and select indicators; (ii) a range of indicators spanning distributional, abiotic and biotic features; (iii) indices and multivariate analyses with extreme care until guidelines are developed; (iv) time series with sufficient data to

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterhouse, Rachel

1992-01-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2009-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

A framework for techno-economic & environmental sustainability analysis by risk assessment for conceptual process evaluation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Sin, Gürkan; Carvalho, Ana

2016-01-01

for techno-economic and environmental sustainability analysis through risk assessment is proposed for the early-stage design and screening of conceptual process alternatives. The alternatives within the design space are analyzed following the framework’s work-flow, which targets the following: (i) quantify...... the economic risk; (ii) perform the monetary valuation of environmental impact categories under uncertainty; (iii) quantify the potential environmental risk; (iv) measure the alternatives’ eco-efficiency identifying possible trade-offs; and, lastly (v) propose a joint risk assessment matrix......The need to achieve a sustainable process performance has become increasingly important in order to keep a competitive advantage in the global markets. Development of comprehensive and systematic methods to accomplish this goal is the subject of this work. To this end, a multi-level framework...

A framework for techno-economic & environmental sustainability analysis by risk assessment for conceptual process evaluation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Sin, Gürkan; Carvalho, Ana

2016-01-01

the economic risk; (ii) perform the monetary valuation of environmental impact categories under uncertainty; (iii) quantify the potential environmental risk; (iv) measure the alternatives’ eco-efficiency identifying possible trade-offs; and, lastly (v) propose a joint risk assessment matrix......The need to achieve a sustainable process performance has become increasingly important in order to keep a competitive advantage in the global markets. Development of comprehensive and systematic methods to accomplish this goal is the subject of this work. To this end, a multi-level framework...... for techno-economic and environmental sustainability analysis through risk assessment is proposed for the early-stage design and screening of conceptual process alternatives. The alternatives within the design space are analyzed following the framework’s work-flow, which targets the following: (i) quantify...

The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

2016-10-01

The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

Use of a combination of CEA and tumor budding to identify high-risk patients with stage II colon cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Changzheng; Xue, Weicheng; Dou, Fangyuan; Peng, Yifan; Yao, Yunfeng; Zhao, Jun; Gu, Jin

2017-07-24

High-risk patients with stage II colon cancer may benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy, but identifying this patient population can be difficult. We assessed the prognosis value for predicting tumor progression in patients with stage II colon cancer, of a panel of 2 biomarkers for colon cancer: tumor budding and preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Consecutive patients (N = 134) with stage II colon cancer who underwent curative surgery from 2000 to 2007 were included. Multivariate analysis was used to evaluate the association of CEA and tumor budding grade with 5-year disease-free survival (DFS). The prognostic accuracy of CEA, tumor budding grade and the combination of both (CEA-budding panel) was determined. The study found that both CEA and tumor budding grade were associated with 5-year DFS. The prognostic accuracy for disease progression was higher for the CEA-budding panel (82.1%) than either CEA (70.9%) or tumor budding grade (72.4%) alone. The findings indicate that the combination of CEA levels and tumor budding grade has greater prognostic value for identifying patients with stage II colon cancer who are at high-risk for disease progression, than either marker alone.

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

1997-01-01

Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

GAR Global Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

On risk assessment of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunii, Katsuhiko

2005-07-01

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Risk assessments ensure safer power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-02-19

A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

Loss distribution approach for operational risk capital modelling under Basel II: Combining different data sources for risk estimation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavel V. Shevchenko

2013-07-01

Full Text Available The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone significant changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in operational risk environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks very different from market and credit risks. In response, Basel Committee for banking Supervision has developed a regulatory framework, referred to as Basel II, that introduced operational risk category and corresponding capital requirements. Over the past five years, major banks in most parts of the world have received accreditation under the Basel II Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA by adopting the loss distribution approach (LDA despite there being a number of unresolved methodological challenges in its implementation. Different approaches and methods are still under hot debate. In this paper, we review methods proposed in the literature for combining different data sources (internal data, external data and scenario analysis which is one of the regulatory requirement for AMA.

Risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

2010-01-01

International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

A qualitative risk assessment approach for Swiss dairy products: opportunities and limitations.

Science.gov (United States)

Menéndez González, S; Hartnack, S; Berger, T; Doherr, M; Breidenbach, E

2011-05-01

Switzerland implemented a risk-based monitoring of Swiss dairy products in 2002 based on a risk assessment (RA) that considered the probability of exceeding a microbiological limit value set by law. A new RA was launched in 2007 to review and further develop the previous assessment, and to make recommendations for future risk-based monitoring according to current risks. The resulting qualitative RA was designed to ascertain the risk to human health from the consumption of Swiss dairy products. The products and microbial hazards to be considered in the RA were determined based on a risk profile. The hazards included Campylobacter spp., Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli, coagulase-positive staphylococci and Staphylococcus aureus enterotoxin. The release assessment considered the prevalence of the hazards in bulk milk samples, the influence of the process parameters on the microorganisms, and the influence of the type of dairy. The exposure assessment was linked to the production volume. An overall probability was estimated combining the probabilities of release and exposure for each combination of hazard, dairy product and type of dairy. This overall probability represents the likelihood of a product from a certain type of dairy exceeding the microbiological limit value and being passed on to the consumer. The consequences could not be fully assessed due to lack of detailed information on the number of disease cases caused by the consumption of dairy products. The results were expressed as a ranking of overall probabilities. Finally, recommendations for the design of the risk-based monitoring programme and for filling the identified data gaps were given. The aims of this work were (i) to present the qualitative RA approach for Swiss dairy products, which could be adapted to other settings and (ii) to discuss the opportunities and limitations of the qualitative method. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

Risk assessment considerations with regard to the potential impacts of pesticides on endangered species.

Science.gov (United States)

Brain, Richard A; Teed, R Scott; Bang, JiSu; Thorbek, Pernille; Perine, Jeff; Peranginangin, Natalia; Kim, Myoungwoo; Valenti, Ted; Chen, Wenlin; Breton, Roger L; Rodney, Sara I; Moore, Dwayne R J

2015-01-01

Simple, deterministic screening-level assessments that are highly conservative by design facilitate a rapid initial screening to determine whether a pesticide active ingredient has the potential to adversely affect threatened or endangered species. If a worst-case estimate of pesticide exposure is below a very conservative effects metric (e.g., the no observed effects concentration of the most sensitive tested surrogate species) then the potential risks are considered de minimis and unlikely to jeopardize the existence of a threatened or endangered species. Thus by design, such compounded layers of conservatism are intended to minimize potential Type II errors (failure to reject a false null hypothesis of de minimus risk), but correspondingly increase Type I errors (falsely reject a null hypothesis of de minimus risk). Because of the conservatism inherent in screening-level risk assessments, higher-tier scientific information and analyses that provide additional environmental realism can be applied in cases where a potential risk has been identified. This information includes community-level effects data, environmental fate and exposure data, monitoring data, geospatial location and proximity data, species biology data, and probabilistic exposure and population models. Given that the definition of "risk" includes likelihood and magnitude of effect, higher-tier risk assessments should use probabilistic techniques that more accurately and realistically characterize risk. Moreover, where possible and appropriate, risk assessments should focus on effects at the population and community levels of organization rather than the more traditional focus on the organism level. This document provides a review of some types of higher-tier data and assessment refinements available to more accurately and realistically evaluate potential risks of pesticide use to threatened and endangered species. © 2014 SETAC.

Fracture risk in women with type II diabetes. Results from a historical cohort with fracture follow-up

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Jakob Præst; Jensen, Thomas; Hyldstrup, Lars

2018-01-01

. Prevalent fractures (43.7 vs. 33.2%, p = 0.0010) and prevalent MOF (26.2 vs. 20.5% p = 0.038) were more common among patients with type II diabetes. The unadjusted incident fracture risk was increased with a higher relative risk of 42%. An elevated MOF hazard ratio was present (HR = 1.726, p = 0.......0006). Adjustment for prevalent osteoporosis and other possible confounders did not change this finding (HR = 1.558, p = 0.0207). CONCLUSIONS: An association between type II diabetes and an increased risk of MOF primarily driven by an increased hip fracture risk was documented. This finding was independent......PURPOSE: To examine the independent association between type II diabetes and fracture risk in a population of predominantly postmenopausal women referred to a specialist clinic for osteoporosis evaluation. METHODS: Type II diabetes associated fracture risk were evaluated among to 229 patients...

Climate impact on social systems. The risk assessment approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svirezhev, Y.M.; Schellnhuber, H.-J.

1993-01-01

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such event is estimated. The estimation considers both the real stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather) a so-called 'statistical weather generator' is used. One interesting finding is that the 3%-risk level remains constant up to 1- -1.1 deg. C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach allows to separate two problems: (i) assessment of Global Change impact and (ii) decision-making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers. (au)

Cardiovascular risk markers in type II diabetes and hypertension at ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Cardiovascular risk markers in type II diabetes and hypertension at the Battor Catholic ... either precedes or is a consequence of the development of these diseases. ... The control group consisted of 62 age-matched healthy individuals.

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

Science.gov (United States)

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

The Operational Risk in the Outlook of the Basel II Accord Implementation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrei Tinca

2007-05-01

Full Text Available The financial scandals în the last two decades have determined the Basel Committee to improve the risk controls for banks în general, and for operational risk in particular. Operational risk covers all non-market or credit risk, therefore including management risk, IT and fraud risk. By the Basel II Accord, the Committee proposes three risk measurement methods, which induce increasing costs, but also greater reductions în a bank’s capital reserve, and thus în its operating costs.

Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Rausand, Marvin

2011-01-01

With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

2004-01-01

This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mousavi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Mihalchuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Hrdová, Edita

2012-01-01

This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

HTGR accident and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

1982-01-01

This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Risk assessment and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisk, D.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

Risk assessment and the environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1988-01-01

A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

Science.gov (United States)

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Prevalence and risk factors of type II endoleaks after endovascular aneurysm repair: A meta-analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiang Guo

Full Text Available This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to determine the current evidence on risk factors for type II endoleaks after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR.A systematic literature search was carried out for studies that evaluated the association of demographic, co-morbidity, and other patient-determined factors with the onset of type II endoleaks. Pooled prevalence of type II endoleaks after EVAR was updated.Among the 504 studies screened, 45 studies with a total of 36,588 participants were included in this review. The pooled prevalence of type II endoleaks after EVAR was 22% [95% confidence interval (CI, 19%-25%]. The main factors consistently associated with type II endoleaks included age [pooled odds ratio (OR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.31-0.43; P<0.001], smoking (pooled OR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.55-0.92; P<0.001, patent inferior mesenteric artery (pooled OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.06-3.71; P = 0.012, maximum aneurysm diameter (pooled OR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.17-0.30; P<0.001, and number of patent lumbar arteries (pooled OR, 3.07; 95% CI, 2.81-3.33; P<0.001. Sex, diabetes, hypertension, anticoagulants, antiplatelet, hyperlipidemia, chronic renal insufficiency, types of graft material, and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD did not show any association with the onset of type II endoleaks.Clinicians can use the identified risk factors to detect and manage patients at risk of developing type II endoleaks after EVAR. However, further studies are needed to analyze a number of potential risk factors.

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, K.C.

1992-01-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

1992-07-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

OpenAIRE

Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

2017-01-01

The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrese, Edward J

2015-04-01

The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Părăian Mihaela

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

An Assessment of the Internal Rating Based Approach in Basel II

OpenAIRE

Simone Varotto

2008-01-01

The new bank capital regulation commonly known as Basel II includes a internal rating based approach (IRB) to measuring credit risk in bank portfolios. The IRB relies on the assumptions that the portfolio is fully diversified and that systematic risk is driven by one common factor. In this work we empirically investigate the impact of these assumptions by comparing the risk measures produced by the IRB with those of a more general credit risk model that allows for multiple systematic risk fac...

Quantitative coronary plaque analysis predicts high-risk plaque morphology on coronary computed tomography angiography: results from the ROMICAT II trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Ting; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Puchner, Stefan B; Lu, Michael T; Ghemigian, Khristine; Kitslaar, Pieter H; Broersen, Alexander; Pursnani, Amit; Hoffmann, Udo; Ferencik, Maros

2018-02-01

Semi-automated software can provide quantitative assessment of atherosclerotic plaques on coronary CT angiography (CTA). The relationship between established qualitative high-risk plaque features and quantitative plaque measurements has not been studied. We analyzed the association between quantitative plaque measurements and qualitative high-risk plaque features on coronary CTA. We included 260 patients with plaque who underwent coronary CTA in the Rule Out Myocardial Infarction/Ischemia Using Computer Assisted Tomography (ROMICAT) II trial. Quantitative plaque assessment and qualitative plaque characterization were performed on a per coronary segment basis. Quantitative coronary plaque measurements included plaque volume, plaque burden, remodeling index, and diameter stenosis. In qualitative analysis, high-risk plaque was present if positive remodeling, low CT attenuation plaque, napkin-ring sign or spotty calcium were detected. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between quantitative and qualitative high-risk plaque assessment. Among 888 segments with coronary plaque, high-risk plaque was present in 391 (44.0%) segments by qualitative analysis. In quantitative analysis, segments with high-risk plaque had higher total plaque volume, low CT attenuation plaque volume, plaque burden and remodeling index. Quantitatively assessed low CT attenuation plaque volume (odds ratio 1.12 per 1 mm 3 , 95% CI 1.04-1.21), positive remodeling (odds ratio 1.25 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.10-1.41) and plaque burden (odds ratio 1.53 per 0.1, 95% CI 1.08-2.16) were associated with high-risk plaque. Quantitative coronary plaque characteristics (low CT attenuation plaque volume, positive remodeling and plaque burden) measured by semi-automated software correlated with qualitative assessment of high-risk plaque features.

A Fuzzy-FMEA Risk Assessment Approach for Offshore Wind Turbines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Shafiee

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA has been extensively used by wind turbine assembly manufacturers for risk and reliability analysis. However, several limitations are associated with its implementation in offshore windfarms: (i the failure data gathered from SCADA system is often missing or unreliable, and hence, the assessment information of the three risk factors (i.e., severity, occurrence, and fault detection are mainly based onexperts’ knowledge; (ii it is rather difficult for experts to precisely evaluate the risk factors; (iii the relative importance among the risk factors is not taken into consideration, and hence, the results may not necessarily represent the true risk priorities; and etc. To overcome these drawbacks and improve the effectiveness of the traditional FMEA, we develop a fuzzy-FMEA approach for risk and failure mode analysis in offshore wind turbine systems. The information obtained from the experts is expressed using fuzzy linguistics terms, and a grey theory analysis is proposed to incorporate the relative importance of the riskfactors into the determination of risk priority of failure modes. The proposed approach is applied to an offshore wind turbine system with sixteen mechanical, electrical and auxiliary assemblies, and the results are compared with the traditional FMEA.

2-Phase NSGA II: An Optimized Reward and Risk Measurements Algorithm in Portfolio Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyedeh Elham Eftekharian

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Portfolio optimization is a serious challenge for financial engineering and has pulled down special attention among investors. It has two objectives: to maximize the reward that is calculated by expected return and to minimize the risk. Variance has been considered as a risk measure. There are many constraints in the world that ultimately lead to a non–convex search space such as cardinality constraint. In conclusion, parametric quadratic programming could not be applied and it seems essential to apply multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA. In this paper, a new efficient multi-objective portfolio optimization algorithm called 2-phase NSGA II algorithm is developed and the results of this algorithm are compared with the NSGA II algorithm. It was found that 2-phase NSGA II significantly outperformed NSGA II algorithm.

Validity of the Mania Subscale of the Diagnostic Assessment for the Severely Handicapped-II (DASH-II).

Science.gov (United States)

Matson, Johnny L.; Smiroldo, Brandi B.

1997-01-01

A study tested the validity of the Diagnostic Assessment for the Severely Handicapped-II (DASH-II) for determining the presence of mania (bipolar disorder) in 22 individuals with severe mental retardation. Results found the mania subscale to be internally consistent and able to be used to classify manic and control subjects accurately. (Author/CR)

Has the Basel II Accord Encouraged Risk Management During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.J. McAleer (Michael); J.A. Jiménez-Martín (Juan-Ángel); T. Pérez-Amaral (Teodosio)

2009-01-01

textabstractThe Basel II Accord requires that banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk

Chlorine transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

1977-02-01

An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

Risk assessment in maritime transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

2001-01-01

A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

Framework for ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

1992-02-01

Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Challinor, Andrew J; Müller, Christoph; Asseng, Senthold; Deva, Chetan; Nicklin, Kathryn Jane; Wallach, Daniel; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Whitfield, Stephen; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin

2018-01-01

Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions

Systematic risk assessment methodology for critical infrastructure elements - Oil and Gas subsectors

Science.gov (United States)

Gheorghiu, A.-D.; Ozunu, A.

2012-04-01

The concern for the protection of critical infrastructure has been rapidly growing in the last few years in Europe. The level of knowledge and preparedness in this field is beginning to develop in a lawfully organized manner, for the identification and designation of critical infrastructure elements of national and European interest. Oil and gas production, refining, treatment, storage and transmission by pipelines facilities, are considered European critical infrastructure sectors, as per Annex I of the Council Directive 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on the identification and designation of European critical infrastructures and the assessment of the need to improve their protection. Besides identifying European and national critical infrastructure elements, member states also need to perform a risk analysis for these infrastructure items, as stated in Annex II of the above mentioned Directive. In the field of risk assessment, there are a series of acknowledged and successfully used methods in the world, but not all hazard identification and assessment methods and techniques are suitable for a given site, situation, or type of hazard. As Theoharidou, M. et al. noted (Theoharidou, M., P. Kotzanikolaou, and D. Gritzalis 2009. Risk-Based Criticality Analysis. In Critical Infrastructure Protection III. Proceedings. Third Annual IFIP WG 11.10 International Conference on Critical Infrastructure Protection. Hanover, New Hampshire, USA, March 23-25, 2009: revised selected papers, edited by C. Palmer and S. Shenoi, 35-49. Berlin: Springer.), despite the wealth of knowledge already created, there is a need for simple, feasible, and standardized criticality analyses. The proposed systematic risk assessment methodology includes three basic steps: the first step (preliminary analysis) includes the identification of hazards (including possible natural hazards) for each installation/section within a given site, followed by a criterial analysis and then a detailed analysis step

Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

2012-04-01

To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Risk assessment of soil compaction in Europe – Rubber tracks or wheels on machinery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lamandé, Mathieu; Greve, Mogens Humlekrog; Schjønning, Per

2018-01-01

Subsoil compaction is persistent and affects the wide diversity of ecological services provided by agricultural soils. Efficient risk assessment tools are required to identify sustainable agricultural practices. Vehicles should not transmit stresses that exceed soil strength. Wheel load is the pr......Subsoil compaction is persistent and affects the wide diversity of ecological services provided by agricultural soils. Efficient risk assessment tools are required to identify sustainable agricultural practices. Vehicles should not transmit stresses that exceed soil strength. Wheel load...... the magnitude of contact stresses, (ii) compare effects of traffic on soil physical properties using tires or tracks, and (iii) evaluate a state-of-the-art method for risk assessment of soil compaction beneath tracks or tires at the European level. We measured contact stress below a fully-loaded sugar beet....... The contact area was larger and the maximum and vertical stress smaller beneath the rubber track than beneath the tire. Nevertheless, stress distribution beneath the rubber track was far from uniform, presenting high peak stresses beneath the wheels and rollers. Dry bulk density was similar after traffic...

A PRA case study of extended long term decay heat removal for shutdown risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roglans, J.; Ragland, W.A.; Hill, D.J.

1992-01-01

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II), a Department of Energy (DOE) Category A research reactor, has recently been completed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). The results of this PRA have shown that the decay heat removal system for EBR-II is extremely robust and reliable. In addition, the methodology used demonstrates how the actions of other systems not normally used for actions of other systems not normally used for decay heat removal can be used to expand the mission time of the decay heat removal system and further increase its reliability. The methodology may also be extended to account for the impact of non-safety systems in enhancing the reliability of other dedicated safety systems

PRESTO-II: a low-level waste environmental transport and risk assessment code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fields, D.E.; Emerson, C.J.; Chester, R.O.; Little, C.A.; Hiromoto, G.

1986-04-01

PRESTO-II (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) is a computer code designed for the evaluation of possible health effects from shallow-land and, waste-disposal trenches. The model is intended to serve as a non-site-specific screening model for assessing radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impacts to a static local population for a 1000-year period following the end of disposal operations. Human exposure scenarios considered include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and limited site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population include ground-water transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, suspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, external exposure, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses, as well as doses to the intruder and farmer, may be calculated. Cumulative health effects in terms of cancer deaths are calculated for the population over the 1000-year period using a life-table approach. Data are included for three example sites: Barnwell, South Carolina; Beatty, Nevada; and West Valley, New York. A code listing and example input for each of the three sites are included in the appendices to this report

PRESTO-II: a low-level waste environmental transport and risk assessment code

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fields, D.E.; Emerson, C.J.; Chester, R.O.; Little, C.A.; Hiromoto, G.

1986-04-01

PRESTO-II (Prediction of Radiation Effects from Shallow Trench Operations) is a computer code designed for the evaluation of possible health effects from shallow-land and, waste-disposal trenches. The model is intended to serve as a non-site-specific screening model for assessing radionuclide transport, ensuing exposure, and health impacts to a static local population for a 1000-year period following the end of disposal operations. Human exposure scenarios considered include normal releases (including leaching and operational spillage), human intrusion, and limited site farming or reclamation. Pathways and processes of transit from the trench to an individual or population include ground-water transport, overland flow, erosion, surface water dilution, suspension, atmospheric transport, deposition, inhalation, external exposure, and ingestion of contaminated beef, milk, crops, and water. Both population doses and individual doses, as well as doses to the intruder and farmer, may be calculated. Cumulative health effects in terms of cancer deaths are calculated for the population over the 1000-year period using a life-table approach. Data are included for three example sites: Barnwell, South Carolina; Beatty, Nevada; and West Valley, New York. A code listing and example input for each of the three sites are included in the appendices to this report.

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana G. Feoktistova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

Use of genomic data in risk assessment case study: II. Evaluation of the dibutyl phthalate toxicogenomic data set

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); White, Lori D. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Kim, Andrea S. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Sen, Banalata [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Wilson, Vickie S. [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Keshava, Channa; Keshava, Nagalakshmi [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Hester, Susan [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States); Ovacik, Meric A.; Ierapetritou, Marianthi G.; Androulakis, Ioannis P. [National Center for Environmental Research Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Bioinformatics Center, Environmental Bioinformatics and Computational Toxicology Center (ebCTC), Rutgers University and University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey, Piscataway, NJ (United States); Gaido, Kevin W. [Center for Veterinary Medicine, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Rockville, MD 20855 (United States)

2013-09-15

An evaluation of the toxicogenomic data set for dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and male reproductive developmental effects was performed as part of a larger case study to test an approach for incorporating genomic data in risk assessment. The DBP toxicogenomic data set is composed of nine in vivo studies from the published literature that exposed rats to DBP during gestation and evaluated gene expression changes in testes or Wolffian ducts of male fetuses. The exercise focused on qualitative evaluation, based on a lack of available dose–response data, of the DBP toxicogenomic data set to postulate modes and mechanisms of action for the male reproductive developmental outcomes, which occur in the lower dose range. A weight-of-evidence evaluation was performed on the eight DBP toxicogenomic studies of the rat testis at the gene and pathway levels. The results showed relatively strong evidence of DBP-induced downregulation of genes in the steroidogenesis pathway and lipid/sterol/cholesterol transport pathway as well as effects on immediate early gene/growth/differentiation, transcription, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor signaling and apoptosis pathways in the testis. Since two established modes of action (MOAs), reduced fetal testicular testosterone production and Insl3 gene expression, explain some but not all of the testis effects observed in rats after in utero DBP exposure, other MOAs are likely to be operative. A reanalysis of one DBP microarray study identified additional pathways within cell signaling, metabolism, hormone, disease, and cell adhesion biological processes. These putative new pathways may be associated with DBP effects on the testes that are currently unexplained. This case study on DBP identified data gaps and research needs for the use of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment. Furthermore, this study demonstrated an approach for evaluating toxicogenomic data in human health risk assessment that could be applied to future chemicals

Component fragility analysis methodology for seismic risk assessment projects. Proven PSA safety document processing and assessment procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolar, Ladislav

2013-03-01

The seismic risk task assessment task should be structured as follows: (i) Define all reactor unit building structures, components and equipment involved in the creation of an initiating event (IE) induced by an seismic event or contributing to the reliability of reactor unit response to an IE; (ii) construct and estimate of the fragility curves for the building and component groups sub (i); (iii) determine the HCLPF for each group of buildings, components or equipment; (iv) determine the nuclear source's seismic resistance (SME) as the minimum HCLPF from the group of equipment in the risk-dominant scenarios; (v) define the risk-limiting group of components, equipment and building structures to the SME value; (vi) based on the fragility levels, identify component groups for which a more detailed fragility analysis is needed; and (vii) recommend groups of equipment or building structures that should be taken into account with respect to the seismic risk, i.e. such groups of equipment or building structures as exhibit a low seismic resistance (HCLPF) and, at the same time, are involved to a significant extent in the reactor unit's seismic risk (are present in the dominant risk scenarios). (P.A.)

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Medical risk assessment in dentistry: use of the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Clough, S; Shehabi, Z; Morgan, C

2016-02-12

Medical risk assessment is essential to safe patient management and the delivery of appropriate dental care. The American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status (ASA PS) Classification is widely used within medicine and dentistry, but has received significant criticism. This is the first UK survey to assess the consistency of medical risk assessment in dentistry. (i) To determine the use and consistency of the ASA PS among dentists and anaesthetists. (ii) To consider the appropriateness of the ASA PS in relation to dental treatment planning and delivery of care. A cross-sectional online questionnaire was distributed to anaesthetists and dental practitioners in general practice, community and hospital dental services. Questions focused on professional backgrounds, use of the ASA PS, alternative approaches to risk assessment in everyday practice and scoring of eight hypothetical patients using ASA PS. There were 101 responses, 82 were complete. Anaesthetists recorded ASA PS score more frequently than dental practitioners and found it more useful. Inconsistencies were evident in the assignment of ASA PS scores both between and within professional groups. Many dental practitioners did not use or find ASA PS helpful, with significant inconsistencies in its use. An awareness of alternative assessment scales may be useful across settings. Accepting its limitations, it would be helpful for all dentists to be educated in ASA PS and its use in medical risk assessment, particularly in relation to conscious sedation.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

[Risk assessment and control strategies of pests in Lycium barbarum fields under different managements].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Zi-Hua; Zhang, Rong; He, Da-Han; Wang, Fang; Zhang, Ting-Ting; Zhang, Zong-Shan

2009-04-01

In the risk assessment of pests, both the community structure and the environmental factors should be considered at the same time, because of their mutual effects on the outbreak of disaster pests. This paper established a comprehensive assessment system, including 2 sub-systems, 5 respects, and 14 indices. In the meanwhile, risk assessment indices and experience formula were used to analyze the risk degree of pests in Lycium barbarum fields under different managements. It was found that using risk assessment indices and experience formula could obtain similar results. In abandoned field, Aceria palida, Aphis sp., and Paratrioza sinica were the frequent disaster pests, Lema decempunctata, Neoceratitis asiatica, Jaapiella sp., and Phthorimaea sp. were the incidental disaster pests, and Psylliodes obscurofaciata and Phthorimaea sp. were general pests. In organic field, the frequent disaster pests were the same species as those in abandoned field, while P. indicus, Jaapiella sp. and Phthorimaea sp. were the incidental disaster pests. In chemical control field, A. palida, Aphis sp., P. sinica, and P. indicus were the frequent disaster pests, while Jaapiella sp. and Phthorimaea sp. were the incidental disaster pests. Optimal 5 separations most fitted the division of pest sub-communities in L. barbarum fields, which were infancy period (from March 28 to April 15), outbreak I period (from April 15 to July 18), dormancy period (from July 18 to September 8), outbreak II period (from September 8 to October 15), and recession period (after October 15). The matrix of correlation coefficient showed that the dynamics of pests in L. barbarum fields under different managements were significantly correlated with each other, suggesting that the dynamics of pest populations was similar in different L. barbarum fields, which had two population establishment stages and one exponential growth stage in every year. The optimal controlling stages were from late infancy period to early and

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-11-15

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Risk assessment - black art or science?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, G.

1988-01-01

Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

Above, Beyond, and Over the Side rails: Evaluating the New Memorial Emergency Department Fall-Risk-Assessment Tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Robin A; Oman, Kathleen S; Flarity, Kathleen; Comer, Jennifer L

2018-03-06

Patient falls are a significant issue in hospitalized patients and financially costly to hospitals. The Joint Commission requires that patients be assessed for fall risk and interventions in place to mitigate the risk of falls. It is imperative to have a patient population/setting specific fall risk assessment tool to identify patients at risk for falling. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the 2013 Memorial ED Fall Risk Assessment tool (MEDFRAT) specifically designed for the ED population. A two-phase prospective design was used for this study. Phase one determined the interrater reliability of the MEDFRAT. Phase two assessed the validity of the MEDFRAT in an emergency department (ED) within a 600-bed academic/teaching institution; Level II Trauma Center with >100,000 annual patient visits. The Memorial ED Fall Risk Assessment Tool was validated in this ED setting. The tool demonstrated positive interrater reliability (k=0.701) and when implemented with a falls prevention strategy and staff education demonstrated a 48% decrease in ED fall rate (0.57 falls/1000 patient visits) post implementation during the study period. The MEDFRAT, an evidenced based ED-specific fall risk tool was implemented on the basis of the risk factors consistently identified in the literature: prior fall history, impaired mobility, altered mental status, altered elimination, and the use of sedative medication. The Memorial ED Fall Risk Assessment Tool demonstrated to be a valid tool for this hospital system. Copyright © 2018 Emergency Nurses Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gestational Age, Infant Birth Weight, and Subsequent Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Mothers: Nurses' Health Study II

Science.gov (United States)

... Subsequent Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Mothers: Nurses’ Health Study II Navigate This Article Abstract Introduction ... Table 1. Pregnancy Complications and Diabetes Risk Factors, Nurses’ Health Study II, 1989–2005 Characteristic All Births ...

Concerning ethical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeckle, F.

1991-01-01

After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

Ecological risk assessment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

2007-01-01

Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

Validation of the 12-gene colon cancer recurrence score as a predictor of recurrence risk in stage II and III rectal cancer patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Reimers, Marlies S; Kuppen, Peter J K; Lee, Mark; Lopatin, Margarita; Tezcan, Haluk; Putter, Hein; Clark-Langone, Kim; Liefers, Gerrit Jan; Shak, Steve; van de Velde, Cornelis J H

2014-11-01

The 12-gene Recurrence Score assay is a validated predictor of recurrence risk in stage II and III colon cancer patients. We conducted a prospectively designed study to validate this assay for prediction of recurrence risk in stage II and III rectal cancer patients from the Dutch Total Mesorectal Excision (TME) trial. RNA was extracted from fixed paraffin-embedded primary rectal tumor tissue from stage II and III patients randomized to TME surgery alone, without (neo)adjuvant treatment. Recurrence Score was assessed by quantitative real time-polymerase chain reaction using previously validated colon cancer genes and algorithm. Data were analysed by Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for stage and resection margin status. All statistical tests were two-sided. Recurrence Score predicted risk of recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.57, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.11 to 2.21, P = .01), risk of distant recurrence (HR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.04 to 2.17, P = .03), and rectal cancer-specific survival (HR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.15 to 2.34, P = .007). The effect of Recurrence Score was most prominent in stage II patients and attenuated with more advanced stage (P(interaction) ≤ .007 for each endpoint). In stage II, five-year cumulative incidence of recurrence ranged from 11.1% in the predefined low Recurrence Score group (48.5% of patients) to 43.3% in the high Recurrence Score group (23.1% of patients). The 12-gene Recurrence Score is a predictor of recurrence risk and cancer-specific survival in rectal cancer patients treated with surgery alone, suggesting a similar underlying biology in colon and rectal cancers. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Probabilistic risk assessment on maritime spent nuclear fuel transportation (Part II: Ship collision probability)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Christian, Robby; Kang, Hyun Gook

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a methodology to assess and reduce risks of maritime spent nuclear fuel transportation with a probabilistic approach. Event trees detailing the progression of collisions leading to transport casks’ damage were constructed. Parallel and crossing collision probabilities were formulated based on the Poisson distribution. Automatic Identification System (AIS) data were processed with the Hough Transform algorithm to estimate possible intersections between the shipment route and the marine traffic. Monte Carlo simulations were done to compute collision probabilities and impact energies at each intersection. Possible safety improvement measures through a proper selection of operational transport parameters were investigated. These parameters include shipment routes, ship's cruise velocity, number of transport casks carried in a shipment, the casks’ stowage configuration and loading order on board the ship. A shipment case study is presented. Waters with high collision probabilities were identified. Effective range of cruising velocity to reduce collision risks were discovered. The number of casks in a shipment and their stowage method which gave low cask damage frequencies were obtained. The proposed methodology was successful in quantifying ship collision and cask damage frequency. It was effective in assisting decision making processes to minimize risks in maritime spent nuclear fuel transportation. - Highlights: • Proposes a probabilistic framework on the safety of spent nuclear fuel transportation by sea. • Developed a marine traffic simulation model using Generalized Hough Transform (GHT) algorithm. • A transportation case study on South Korean waters is presented. • Single-vessel risk reduction method is outlined by optimizing transport parameters.

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2001-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

The relative influence of individual risk factors for attempted suicide in patients with bipolar I versus bipolar II disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Bobo, William V; Na, Peter J; Geske, Jennifer R; McElroy, Susan L; Frye, Mark A; Biernacka, Joanna M

2018-01-01

To compare the relative influence (RI) of individual predictors for lifetime attempted suicide between adults with bipolar I (BDBD-I) and bipolar II disorder (BDBD-II). We conducted an analysis of data from 1465 enrollees in the Mayo Clinic Bipolar Disorder Biobank. Demographic and clinical variables and history of attempted suicide were ascertained using standardized questionnaires. Height and weight were assessed to determine body mass index (BMI); obesity was defined as BMI ≥30kg/m 2 . The frequencies of these variables were compared between persons with and without self-reported lifetime suicide attempts both overall, and within BD-I and BD-II subgroups. Gradient boosting machine (GBM) models were used to quantify the RI of study variables on the risk of lifetime attempted suicide. Nearly one-third of patients reported having a lifetime suicide attempt. Attempted suicide rates were higher in patients with BD-I than BD-II, but absolute differences were small. Lifetime attempted suicide was associated with female sex, BD-I subtype, psychiatric and substance use comorbidities, binge eating behavior, lifetime history of rapid cycling, other indicators of adverse illness course, and early age of bipolar illness onset in the entire cohort. Differences in the rank-ordering of RI for predictors of attempted suicide between BD-I and BD-II patients were modest. Rapid cycling was a strong risk factor for attempted suicide, particularly in men with BD-I. Actively psychotic or suicidal patients needing psychiatric hospitalization were initially excluded, but were approached after these acute psychiatric problems resolved. The prevalence of lifetime attempted suicide was significantly higher in BD-I than BD-II in this large, cross-sectional cohort. Predictors of attempted suicide were similar in BD-I and BD-II subgroups. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Caries risk assessment in children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, S

2016-01-01

PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

[Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

2012-12-01

Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

Science.gov (United States)

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

2016-04-01

Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs

Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

Modeling for operational event risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.

1997-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

Science.gov (United States)

Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

2005-03-01

One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

Risk assessment for the transportation of hazardous waste and hazardous waste components of low-level mixed waste and transuranic waste for the US Department of Energy waste management programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazaro, M.A.; Policastro, A.J.; Hartmann, H.M.; Chang, Y.S.

1996-12-01

This report, a supplement to Appendix E (Transportation Risk) of the U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS), provides additional information supporting the accident data for chemical risk assessment and health risk methodology described in that appendix (Part II) and presents the uncertainty analysis and on-site risk calculations. This report focuses on hazardous material truck accident rates, release probabilities, and release quantities; provides the toxicological values derived for each hazardous chemical assessed in the WM PEIS and further details on the derivation of health criteria; describes the method used in the transportation risk assessments to address potential additivity of health effects from simultaneous exposure to several chemicals and the method used to address transportation risks for maximally exposed individuals; presents an expanded discussion of the uncertainty associated with transportation risk calculations; and includes the results of the on-site transportation risk analysis. In addition, two addenda are provided to detail the risk assessments conducted for the hazardous components of low-level mixed waste (Addendum I) and transuranic waste (Addendum II)

Risk communication, public participation and the Seveso II directive

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walker, G.; Simmons, P.; Wynne, B.; Irwin, A.

1999-01-01

Risk communication and public participation are considered in the context of the forthcoming requirements of the 'Seveso II' Directive. The discussion draws substantially on the findings of a research project which has investigated public perceptions of the risks from major accident hazards in seven communities in the UK. Implications for the Directive's requirements on emergency information provision, public access to safety reports and consultation on emergency plans are considered. Our conclusions stress the need for risk communication to be seen as a long term and ongoing process, involving active listening to public reasoning about risk and a sensitivity to the context in which communication is taking place. In meeting both needs and rights to information and encouraging and enabling public participation, we conclude that the Directive should contribute in some degree to an improved environment for dialogue and the building of trust. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birnbacher, D.

1991-01-01

Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2011-09-01

The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-01-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

Science.gov (United States)

Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

2010-03-01

Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deriot, S.

1992-10-01

This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Fielder

2018-06-01

Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

1984-01-01

Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2015-04-01

Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger

2002-09-01

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference between

Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogata, Hiromitsu

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

Sovereign default risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

2013-01-01

We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

Use of Genomic Data in Risk Assessment Caes Study: II. Evaluation of the Dibutyl Phthalate Toxicogenomic Dataset

Science.gov (United States)

An evaluation of the toxicogenomic data set for dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and male reproductive developmental effects was performed as part of a larger case study to test an approach for incorporating genomic data in risk assessment. The DBP toxicogenomic data set is composed of ni...

Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jamali, K.

1997-01-01

This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

1996-01-01

A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

1987-06-01

Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

Risk assessment for transport operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

1990-01-01

The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason Dunham

1999-06-01

Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

Risk assessment for the transportation of hazardous waste and hazardous waste components of low-level mixed waste and transuranic waste for the U.S. Department of Energy waste management programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazaro, M.A.; Policastro, A.J.; Hartmann, H.M.

1995-04-01

This report, a supplement to Appendix E (Transportation Risk) of the U.S. Department of Energy Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (WM PEIS), provides additional information supporting the accident data for chemical risk assessment and health risk methodology described in that appendix (Part II), as well as providing the uncertainty analysis and on-site risk calculations. This report focuses on hazardous material truck accident rates, release probabilities, and release quantities; provides the toxicological values derived for each hazardous chemical assessed in the WM PEIS and further details on the derivation of health criteria; describes the method used in the transportation risk assessments to address potential additivity of health effects from simultaneous exposure to several chemicals and the method used to address transportation risks for maximally exposed individuals; presents an expanded discussion of the uncertainty associated with transportation risk calculations; and includes the results of the on-site transportation risk analysis. In addition, two addenda are provided to detail the risk assessments conducted for the hazardous components of low-level mixed waste (Addendum I) and transuranic waste (Addendum II)

Guideline appraisal with AGREE II: online survey of the potential influence of AGREE II items on overall assessment of guideline quality and recommendation for use.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann-Eßer, Wiebke; Siering, Ulrich; Neugebauer, Edmund A M; Brockhaus, Anne Catharina; McGauran, Natalie; Eikermann, Michaela

2018-02-27

The AGREE II instrument is the most commonly used guideline appraisal tool. It includes 23 appraisal criteria (items) organized within six domains. AGREE II also includes two overall assessments (overall guideline quality, recommendation for use). Our aim was to investigate how strongly the 23 AGREE II items influence the two overall assessments. An online survey of authors of publications on guideline appraisals with AGREE II and guideline users from a German scientific network was conducted between 10th February 2015 and 30th March 2015. Participants were asked to rate the influence of the AGREE II items on a Likert scale (0 = no influence to 5 = very strong influence). The frequencies of responses and their dispersion were presented descriptively. Fifty-eight of the 376 persons contacted (15.4%) participated in the survey and the data of the 51 respondents with prior knowledge of AGREE II were analysed. Items 7-12 of Domain 3 (rigour of development) and both items of Domain 6 (editorial independence) had the strongest influence on the two overall assessments. In addition, Items 15-17 (clarity of presentation) had a strong influence on the recommendation for use. Great variations were shown for the other items. The main limitation of the survey is the low response rate. In guideline appraisals using AGREE II, items representing rigour of guideline development and editorial independence seem to have the strongest influence on the two overall assessments. In order to ensure a transparent approach to reaching the overall assessments, we suggest the inclusion of a recommendation in the AGREE II user manual on how to consider item and domain scores. For instance, the manual could include an a-priori weighting of those items and domains that should have the strongest influence on the two overall assessments. The relevance of these assessments within AGREE II could thereby be further specified.

Exposure to hazardous air pollutants and risk of incident breast cancer in the nurses' health study II.

Science.gov (United States)

Hart, Jaime E; Bertrand, Kimberly A; DuPre, Natalie; James, Peter; Vieira, Verónica M; VoPham, Trang; Mittleman, Maggie R; Tamimi, Rulla M; Laden, Francine

2018-03-27

Findings from a recent prospective cohort study in California suggested increased risk of breast cancer associated with higher exposure to certain carcinogenic and estrogen-disrupting hazardous air pollutants (HAPs). However, to date, no nationwide studies have evaluated these possible associations. Our objective was to examine the impacts of mammary carcinogen and estrogen disrupting HAPs on risk of invasive breast cancer in a nationwide cohort. We assigned HAPs from the US Environmental Protection Agency's 2002 National Air Toxics Assessment to 109,239 members of the nationwide, prospective Nurses' Health Study II (NHSII). Risk of overall invasive, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive (ER+), and ER-negative (ER-) breast cancer with increasing quartiles of exposure were assessed in time-varying multivariable proportional hazards models, adjusted for traditional breast cancer risk factors. A total of 3321 invasive cases occurred (2160 ER+, 558 ER-) during follow-up 1989-2011. Overall, there was no consistent pattern of elevated risk of the HAPs with risk of breast cancer. Suggestive elevations were only seen with increasing 1,2-dibromo-3-chloropropane exposures (multivariable adjusted HR of overall breast cancer = 1.12, 95% CI: 0.98-1.29; ER+ breast cancer HR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.92, 1.30; ER- breast cancer HR = 1.14; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.61; each in the top exposure quartile compared to the lowest). Exposures to HAPs during adulthood were not consistently associated with an increased risk of overall or estrogen-receptor subtypes of invasive breast cancer in this nationwide cohort of women.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

Science.gov (United States)

Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

2016-01-01

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

Risk assessment research and technology assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

1991-01-01

The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

2013-01-01

A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

1990-01-01

During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

Science.gov (United States)

Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.

1976-04-01

The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

The evolution of violence risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

2014-10-01

Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ali, M.M.

2007-01-01

Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

Integrated environmental risk assessment for petroleum-contaminated sites - a North American case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Z.; Huang, G.H.; Chakma, A.

1998-01-01

In this study, an integrated risk assessment approach is proposed for evaluating environmental risks derived from petroleum-contaminated sites. The proposed approach is composed of (i) a hydrocarbon spill screening model (HSSM) which is used for simulating immiscible flow of released hydrocarbons in vadose zone, formation of lens in capillary fringe, dissolution of pollutants at water table, and transport of the pollutants to receptors, and (ii) a fuzzy relation analysis (FRA) model which is developed for comprehensively evaluating risks caused by a number of pollutants with different impact characteristics, based on the HSSM results. This hybrid HSSM-FRA approach was applied to a case study for a petroleum-contaminated site in western Canada, where soil and groundwater was contaminated by industrial wastes containing benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEXs). The results suggest that the HSSM-FRA can provide insight into the potential risk to the receptor of concern downward the aquifer and can serve as a basis for further remediation-related decision analysis. (author)

Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

2006-01-01

Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marek Burda

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

Health risk assessment linked to filling coastal quarries with treated dredged seaport sediments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perrodin, Yves; Donguy, Gilles; Emmanuel, Evens; Winiarski, Thierry

2014-01-01

Dredged seaport sediments raise complex management problems since it is no longer possible to discharge them into the sea. Traditional waste treatments are poorly adapted for these materials in terms of absorbable volumes and cost. In this context, filling quarries with treated sediments appears interesting but its safety regarding human health must be demonstrated. To achieve this, a specific methodology for assessing health risks has been developed and tested on three seaport sediments. This methodology includes the development of a conceptual model of the global scenario studied and the definition of specific protocols for each of its major steps. The approach proposed includes in particular the use of metrological and experimental tools that are new in this context: (i) an experimental lysimeter for characterizing the deposit emissions, and (ii) a geological radar for identifying potential preferential pathways between the sediment deposit and the groundwater. The application of this approach on the three sediments tested for the scenario studied showed the absence of health risk associated with the consumption of groundwater for substances having a “threshold effect” (risk quotient −6 ). - Highlights: • The release of polluted dredged seaport sediments into the sea must be avoided. • Their use after treatment for the filling-up of quarries is proposed by managers. • An original health risk assessment methodology was created to validate this option. • It includes the use of a lysimeter and a georadar for the exposure assessment stage. • The example studied concludes to a health risk linked to arsenic in the groundwater

NKS NordRisk II: Atlas of long-range atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from selected risk sites in the Northern Hemisphere

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Smith Korsholm, Ulrik; Astrup, Poul; Lauritzen, Bent

The present atlas has been developed within the NKS/NordRisk-II project "Nuclear risk from atmospheric dispersion in Northern Europe". The atlas describes risks from hypothetical long-range dispersion and deposition of radionuclides from 16 nuclear risk sites on the Northern Hemisphere...... spanning the climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, and corresponding time evolution of the ensemble mean atmospheric dispersion....

Tsunami hazard and risk assessment in El Salvador

Science.gov (United States)

González, M.; González-Riancho, P.; Gutiérrez, O. Q.; García-Aguilar, O.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Aguirre, I.; Alvarez, J. A.; Gavidia, F.; Jaimes, I.; Larreynaga, J. A.

2012-04-01

arrival time, maximum flooding level or "Run-up", hazard degree for people based on incipient velocity for people instability) along the coast of El Salvador and at some relevant locations (high resolution analysis). The VULNERABILITY assessment of the exposed elements (Phase II of the project) is based on an integrated approach which is essential given the complexity of coastal areas. A set of indices and indicators have been developed supported by a Geographic Information System that allows graphical representation of physical, environmental, social, economic and infrastructure characteristics of the coast. Different spatial and temporal scales have been also considered in this project to calculate the risk, since both factors would change the amount and type of exposed elements and their vulnerability. A final global RISK analysis (hazard, exposure and vulnerability analysis for each dimension -human, environmental, socioeconomic and infrastructure- and both temporal and spatial scales) allows identifying weaknesses, gaps and special needs to cope with a tsunami event and, therefore, will result in a set of risk reduction measures, including adaptation and mitigation measures.

Update on a Pharmacokinetic-Centric Alternative Tier II Program for MMT—Part II: Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling and Manganese Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael D. Taylor

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, a variety of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK models have been developed for the essential element manganese. This paper reviews the development of PBPK models (e.g., adult, pregnant, lactating, and neonatal rats, nonhuman primates, and adult, pregnant, lactating, and neonatal humans and relevant risk assessment applications. Each PBPK model incorporates critical features including dose-dependent saturable tissue capacities and asymmetrical diffusional flux of manganese into brain and other tissues. Varied influx and efflux diffusion rate and binding constants for different brain regions account for the differential increases in regional brain manganese concentrations observed experimentally. We also present novel PBPK simulations to predict manganese tissue concentrations in fetal, neonatal, pregnant, or aged individuals, as well as individuals with liver disease or chronic manganese inhalation. The results of these simulations could help guide risk assessors in the application of uncertainty factors as they establish exposure guidelines for the general public or workers.

Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

2013-12-01

Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

2009-01-01

Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

Science.gov (United States)

Ebner, G.

2009-04-01

Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

1994-01-01

The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

Risk assessment and nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bodansky, D.

1982-01-01

The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

Risk assessment handbook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

1990-09-01

The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

2001-01-01

the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2013-01-01

Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

Science.gov (United States)

The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2000-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)

Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

2009-01-01

modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

1991-09-01

A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

Software quality assurance procedures for radioactive waste risk assessment codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, I.; Mayer, J.

1990-01-01

This support study for the evaluation of the safety of geological disposal systems is aimed at identifying the requirements for software quality assurance procedures for radioactive waste risk assessment codes, and to recommend appropriate procedures. The research covers: (i) the analysis of existing procedures and definition of requirements; (ii) a case study of the use of some existing procedures; (iii) the definition and the implementation of procedures. The report is supported by appendices that give more detail on the procedures recommended. It is intended to provide ideas on the steps that should be taken to ensure the quality of the programs used for assessment of the safety case for radioactive waste repositories, and does not represent the introduction of wholly new ideas or techniques. The emphasis throughout is on procedures that will be easily implemented, rather than on the fully rigorous procedures that are required for some application areas. The study has concentrated on measures that will increase the confidence in repository performance assessments among the wider scientific/engineering community, and the lay public

Health risk assessment linked to filling coastal quarries with treated dredged seaport sediments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perrodin, Yves, E-mail: yves.perrodin@entpe.fr [Université de Lyon, ENTPE, UMR CNRS 5023, Laboratoire LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Donguy, Gilles [Université de Lyon, ENTPE, UMR CNRS 5023, Laboratoire LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France); Emmanuel, Evens [Laboratoire de Qualité de l' Eau et de l' Environnement, Université Quisqueya, BP 796 Port-au-Prince (Haiti); Winiarski, Thierry [Université de Lyon, ENTPE, UMR CNRS 5023, Laboratoire LEHNA, 2 rue Maurice Audin, 69518 Vaulx-en-Velin (France)

2014-07-01

Dredged seaport sediments raise complex management problems since it is no longer possible to discharge them into the sea. Traditional waste treatments are poorly adapted for these materials in terms of absorbable volumes and cost. In this context, filling quarries with treated sediments appears interesting but its safety regarding human health must be demonstrated. To achieve this, a specific methodology for assessing health risks has been developed and tested on three seaport sediments. This methodology includes the development of a conceptual model of the global scenario studied and the definition of specific protocols for each of its major steps. The approach proposed includes in particular the use of metrological and experimental tools that are new in this context: (i) an experimental lysimeter for characterizing the deposit emissions, and (ii) a geological radar for identifying potential preferential pathways between the sediment deposit and the groundwater. The application of this approach on the three sediments tested for the scenario studied showed the absence of health risk associated with the consumption of groundwater for substances having a “threshold effect” (risk quotient < 1), and an acceptable risk for substances having a “non-threshold effect”, with the notable exception of arsenic (individual risk equal to 3.10{sup −6}). - Highlights: • The release of polluted dredged seaport sediments into the sea must be avoided. • Their use after treatment for the filling-up of quarries is proposed by managers. • An original health risk assessment methodology was created to validate this option. • It includes the use of a lysimeter and a georadar for the exposure assessment stage. • The example studied concludes to a health risk linked to arsenic in the groundwater.

Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

CERN Document Server

Heimsch, Laura

2016-01-01

The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

IWGT report on quantitative approaches to genotoxicity risk assessment II. Use of point-of-departure (PoD) metrics in defining acceptable exposure limits and assessing human risk.

Science.gov (United States)

MacGregor, James T; Frötschl, Roland; White, Paul A; Crump, Kenny S; Eastmond, David A; Fukushima, Shoji; Guérard, Melanie; Hayashi, Makoto; Soeteman-Hernández, Lya G; Johnson, George E; Kasamatsu, Toshio; Levy, Dan D; Morita, Takeshi; Müller, Lutz; Schoeny, Rita; Schuler, Maik J; Thybaud, Véronique

2015-05-01

This is the second of two reports from the International Workshops on Genotoxicity Testing (IWGT) Working Group on Quantitative Approaches to Genetic Toxicology Risk Assessment (the QWG). The first report summarized the discussions and recommendations of the QWG related to the need for quantitative dose-response analysis of genetic toxicology data, the existence and appropriate evaluation of threshold responses, and methods to analyze exposure-response relationships and derive points of departure (PoDs) from which acceptable exposure levels could be determined. This report summarizes the QWG discussions and recommendations regarding appropriate approaches to evaluate exposure-related risks of genotoxic damage, including extrapolation below identified PoDs and across test systems and species. Recommendations include the selection of appropriate genetic endpoints and target tissues, uncertainty factors and extrapolation methods to be considered, the importance and use of information on mode of action, toxicokinetics, metabolism, and exposure biomarkers when using quantitative exposure-response data to determine acceptable exposure levels in human populations or to assess the risk associated with known or anticipated exposures. The empirical relationship between genetic damage (mutation and chromosomal aberration) and cancer in animal models was also examined. It was concluded that there is a general correlation between cancer induction and mutagenic and/or clastogenic damage for agents thought to act via a genotoxic mechanism, but that the correlation is limited due to an inadequate number of cases in which mutation and cancer can be compared at a sufficient number of doses in the same target tissues of the same species and strain exposed under directly comparable routes and experimental protocols. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Caries risk assessment in schoolchildren - a form based on Cariogram® software

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renata Nunes CABRAL

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Identifying caries risk factors is an important measure which contributes to best understanding of the cariogenic profile of the patient. The Cariogram® software provides this analysis, and protocols simplifying the method were suggested. Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine whether a newly developed Caries Risk Assessment (CRA form based on the Cariogram® software could classify schoolchildren according to their caries risk and to evaluate relationships between caries risk and the variables in the form. Material and Methods: 150 schoolchildren aged 5 to 7 years old were included in this survey. Caries prevalence was obtained according to International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS II. Information for filling in the form based on Cariogram® was collected clinically and from questionnaires sent to parents. Linear regression and a forward stepwise multiple regression model were applied to correlate the variables included in the form with the caries risk. Results: Caries prevalence, in primary dentition, including enamel and dentine carious lesions was 98.6%, and 77.3% when only dentine lesions were considered. Eighty-six percent of the children were classified as at moderate caries risk. The forward stepwise multiple regression model result was significant (R2=0.904; p<0.00001, showing that the most significant factors influencing caries risk were caries experience, oral hygiene, frequency of food consumption, sugar consumption and fluoride sources. Conclusion: The use of the form based on the Cariogram® software enabled classification of the schoolchildren at low, moderate and high caries risk. Caries experience, oral hygiene, frequency of food consumption, sugar consumption and fluoride sources are the variables that were shown to be highly correlated with caries risk.

Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

2001-01-01

Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

Site remediation guided by risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

2002-01-01

'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

2006-01-01

Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Elwood, Richard W

2016-12-01

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

Science.gov (United States)

Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

2009-04-01

There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

Science.gov (United States)

Turturro, A; Hart, R W

1987-01-01

A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ø.J. Rødseth

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-05-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

2018-01-01

Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Avila, R.

2004-01-01

A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

2015-01-01

Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

Risk assessment in support of plant health

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

2012-01-01

environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, W Jon

2007-03-01

Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

1996-01-01

The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

Risk of recurrence in patients with colon cancer stage II and III

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bockelman, C.; Engelmann, Bodil E.; Kaprio, T.

2015-01-01

Background. Adjuvant chemotherapy is established routine therapy for colon cancer (CC) patients with radically resected stage III and 'high-risk' stage II disease. The decision on recommending adjuvant chemotherapy, however, is based on data from older patient cohorts not reflecting improvements...

An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

2005-01-01

The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Michiaki

2012-01-01

This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heikkeroe, Topi

2006-01-01

This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology

A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Segerstaahl, Boris

1989-01-01

Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iain Brown

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

Review of Project SAFE: Comments on biosphere conceptual model description and risk assessment methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klos, Richard; Wilmot, Roger [Galson Sciences Ltd (United Kingdom)

2002-09-01

The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company's (SKB's) most recent assessment of the safety of the Forsmark repository for low-level and intermediate-level waste (Project SAFE) is currently undergoing review by the Swedish regulators. As part of its review, the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) identified that two components of SAFE require more detailed review: (i) the conceptual model description of the biosphere system, and (ii) SKB's risk assessment methodology. We have reviewed the biosphere system interaction matrix and how this has been used in the identification, justification and description of biosphere models for radiological assessment purposes. The risk assessment methodology has been reviewed considering in particular issues associated with scenario selection, assessment timescale, and the probability and risk associated with the well scenario. There is an extensive range of supporting information on which biosphere modelling in Project SAFE is based. However, the link between this material and the biosphere models themselves is not clearly set out. This leads to some contradictions and mis-matches between description and implementation. One example concerns the representation of the geosphere-biosphere interface. The supporting description of lakes indicates that interaction between groundwaters entering the biosphere through lake bed sediments could lead to accumulations of radionuclides in sediments. These sediments may become agricultural areas at some time in the future. In the numerical modelling of the biosphere carried out in Project SAFE, the direct accumulation of contaminants in bed sediments is not represented. Application of a more rigorous procedure to ensure numerical models are fit for purpose is recommended, paying more attention to issues associated with the geosphere-biosphere interface. A more structured approach to risk assessment would be beneficial, with a better explanation of the difference

Biosphere modelling for the assessment of radioactive waste repositories; the development of a common basis by the BIOMOVS II reference biospheres working group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorp, F. van; Egan, M.; Kessler, J.H.; Nilsson, S.; Pinedo, P.; Smith, G.; Torres, C.

1998-01-01

Performance criteria for radioactive waste repositories are often expressed in terms of dose or risk. The characteristics of biosphere modelling for performance assessment are that: (a) potential release occurs in the distant future, (b) reliable predictions of human behaviour at the time of release are impracticable, and (c) the biosphere is not considered to be a barrier as the geosphere and the engineered barriers. For these and other reasons, differences have arisen in the approaches to biosphere modelling for repository dose and risk assessment. The BIOMOVS II Reference Biospheres Working Group has developed (a) a recommended methodology for biosphere model development, (b) a structured list of features, events and processes (FEPs) which the model should describe, and (c) an illustrative example of the recommended methodology. The Working Group has successfully tested the Interaction Matrix (or Rock Engineering Systems, RES) approach for developing conceptual models. The BIOMOVS II Working Groups on Reference Biospheres and Complementary Studies have laid the basis for considerable harmonisation in approaches to biosphere modelling of long term radionuclide releases. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

Assessment of health risks of policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

2014-01-01

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

Assessment of health risks of policies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

2014-09-15

The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

Science.gov (United States)

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

Diagnostic performance of increased overjet in Class II division 1 malocclusion and incisor trauma.

Science.gov (United States)

Baccetti, Tiziano; Giuntini, Veronica; Vangelisti, Andrea; Darendeliler, M Ali; Franchi, Lorenzo

2010-01-01

The objectives of this study were: 1) to evaluate the associations between an increased overjet (IO) and other dentoskeletal characteristics of Class II division 1 malocclusions in the mixed dentition; 2) to assess whether Class II division 1 malocclusions or rather an increased overjet per se is a risk factor for upper incisor trauma (UIT). A sample of 900 mixed dentition subjects, was observed by clinical inspection, analysis of dental casts, and lateral cephalograms. The diagnostic performance of IO (overjet ≥ 7 mm) was evaluated in relation to other Class II dentoskeletal features (Class II molar and canine relationships, and skeletal Class II relationships). Secondly, the diagnostic performance of IO and of the other Class II dentoskeletal components was tested with regard to the prevalence of UIT. Diagnostic performance was assessed by odds ratio and positive likelihood ratio. The diagnostic performance of IO with regard to the other dentoskeletal components of Class II malocclusions was not significant. The only Class II features associated significantly with an increased risk of UIT was IO. When used as an isolated occlusal feature, IO is not a valid diagnostic indicator for Class II division 1 malocclusions. An increased overjet per se, and not Class II malocclusions, appears to be a significant risk factor for UIT. These findings recommend discrimination between clinical conditions showing an isolated IO from comprehensive Class II malocclusions during diagnosis, analysis of treatment outcomes, and evaluation of the risk of upper incisor trauma. Copyright © 2010 Società Italiana di Ortodonzia SIDO. Published by Elsevier Srl. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Page, D

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

Cloud computing assessing the risks

CERN Document Server

Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

2012-01-01

Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

Vibration perception threshold in relation to postural control and fall risk assessment in elderly.

Science.gov (United States)

de Mettelinge, Tine Roman; Calders, Patrick; Palmans, Tanneke; Vanden Bossche, Luc; Van Den Noortgate, Nele; Cambier, Dirk

2013-09-01

This study investigates (i) the potential discriminative role of a clinical measure of peripheral neuropathy (PN) in assessing postural performance and fall risk and (ii) whether the integration of a simple screening vibration perception threshold (VPT) for PN in any physical (fall risk) assessment among elderly should be recommended, even if they do not suffer from DM. One hundred and ninety-five elderly were entered in a four-group model: DM with PN (D+; n = 75), DM without PN (D-; n = 28), non-diabetic elderly with idiopathic PN (C+; n = 31) and non-diabetic elderly without PN (C-; n = 61). Posturographic sway parameters were captured during different static balance conditions (AMTI AccuGait, Watertown, MA). VPT, fall data, Mini-Mental State Examination and Clock Drawing Test were registered. Two-factor repeated-measures ANOVA was used to compare between groups and across balance conditions. The groups with PN demonstrated a strikingly comparable, though bigger sway, and a higher prospective fall incidence than their peers without PN. The indication of PN, irrespective of its cause, interferes with postural control and fall incidence. The integration of a simple screening for PN (like bio-thesiometry) in any fall risk assessment among elderly is highly recommended. Implications for Rehabilitation The indication of peripheral neuropathy (PN), irrespective of its cause, interferes with postural control and fall incidence. Therefore, the integration of a simple screening for PN (like bio-thesiometry) in any fall risk assessment among elderly is highly recommended. It might be useful to integrate somatosensory stimulation in rehabilitation programs designed for fall prevention.

SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreea ARMEAN

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabre J. Coleman

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

Can we (actually) assess global risk?

Science.gov (United States)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2013-04-01

The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

Comprehensive risk assessment for rail transportation of dangerous goods: a validated platform for decision support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gheorghe, Adrian V.; Birchmeier, Juerg; Vamanu, Dan; Papazoglou, Ioannis; Kroeger, Wolfgang

2005-01-01

Currently, the most advanced and well documented risk assessments for the transportation of dangerous goods by railway take into account:(i)statistics-based loss of containment frequencies, (ii) specification of potential consequences for a given release situations using event tree methodology as an organisational tool and (iii) consequence calculation models to determine a risk figure known as CCDF (Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function). Such procedures for the risk assessment (including for example decision-making on preventive measures) may offer only a limited insight into the causes and sequences leading to an accident and do not allow for any kind of predictive analysis. The present work introduces an enhanced solution, and a related software platform, which attempts to integrate loss of containment causes and consequences with system's infrastructure and its environment. The solution features:(i)the use of a detailed Master Logical Diagram, including fault/event tree analysis to determine a loss of containment frequency based on different initiating events, scenarios and specific basic data, (ii) the characterization of a resulting source term following a release situation, and (iii) the calculation of various potential impacts on the neighbouring site. Results are wrapped into a CCDF format for each selected traffic segment. The risk-related results are integrated on a software platform, structured as a decision support system using intelligent maps and a variety of GIS (Geographical Information System) data processing procedures. The introduction of the hot spot approach, allows us to focus on the most risk-relevant areas and to use information on various railway infrastructure elements (e.g. points, tunnels), are the basis of the new models employed. The software is applicable to any railway transportation system, comprising its technical infrastructure, rolling stock, human actions, regulation and management procedures. It provides the

Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

2015-07-01

Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

Methodology for technical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

1983-01-01

A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra

2011-09-01

Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeling the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule II using non-parametric item response models.

Science.gov (United States)

Galindo-Garre, Francisca; Hidalgo, María Dolores; Guilera, Georgina; Pino, Oscar; Rojo, J Emilio; Gómez-Benito, Juana

2015-03-01

The World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule II (WHO-DAS II) is a multidimensional instrument developed for measuring disability. It comprises six domains (getting around, self-care, getting along with others, life activities and participation in society). The main purpose of this paper is the evaluation of the psychometric properties for each domain of the WHO-DAS II with parametric and non-parametric Item Response Theory (IRT) models. A secondary objective is to assess whether the WHO-DAS II items within each domain form a hierarchy of invariantly ordered severity indicators of disability. A sample of 352 patients with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder is used in this study. The 36 items WHO-DAS II was administered during the consultation. Partial Credit and Mokken scale models are used to study the psychometric properties of the questionnaire. The psychometric properties of the WHO-DAS II scale are satisfactory for all the domains. However, we identify a few items that do not discriminate satisfactorily between different levels of disability and cannot be invariantly ordered in the scale. In conclusion the WHO-DAS II can be used to assess overall disability in patients with schizophrenia, but some domains are too general to assess functionality in these patients because they contain items that are not applicable to this pathology. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Landis, Wayne G

2005-01-01

...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

Cardiovascular risk assessment with oxidised LDL measurement in postmenopausal women receiving intranasal estrogen replacement therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurdoglu, Mertihan; Yildirim, Mulazim; Kurdoglu, Zehra; Erdem, Ahmet; Erdem, Mehmet; Bilgihan, Ayse; Goktas, Bulent

2011-08-01

To investigate the effect of intranasal estrogen replacement therapy administered to postmenopausal women alone or in combination with progesterone on markers of cardiovascular risk. The study was conducted with 44 voluntary postmenopausal women. In group I (n = 15), the patients were treated with only intranasal estradiol (300 μg/day estradiol hemihydrate). In group II (n = 11), the patients received cyclic progesterone (200 mg/day micronized progesterone) for 12 days in each cycle in addition to continuous intranasal estradiol. Group III (n = 18) was the controls. Serum lipid profiles, oxidised low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and other markers of cardiovascular risk were assessed at baseline and at the 3rd month of the treatment. Lipid profile, LDL apolipoprotein B, lipoprotein a, homocysteine, oxidised LDL values and oxidised LDL/LDL cholesterol ratio were not observed to change after 3 months compared to baseline values within each group (p > 0.016). In comparison to changes between the groups after the treatment, only oxidised LDL levels and oxidised LDL/LDL cholesterol ratios of group II were increased compared to control group (p < 0.05). Intranasal estradiol alone did not appear to have an effect on markers of cardiovascular risk in healthy postmenopausal women. However, the addition of cyclic oral micronized progesterone to intranasal estradiol influenced the markers of cardiovascular risk negatively in comparison to non-users in healthy postmenopausal women.

Risk assessment future cash flows

OpenAIRE

Chachina H. G.

2012-01-01

This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

2017-01-01

Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

76 FR 44891 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-27

...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our draft environmental assessment for the proposed...-2817 before coming. The petition, draft environmental assessment, and plant pest risk assessment are...