WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment frameworks

  1. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  2. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  3. A microbial identification framework for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernatchez, Stéphane; Anoop, Valar; Saikali, Zeina; Breton, Marie

    2018-06-01

    Micro-organisms are increasingly used in a variety of products for commercial uses, including cleaning products. Such microbial-based cleaning products (MBCP) are represented as a more environmentally-friendly alternative to chemically based cleaning products. The identity of the micro-organisms formulated into these products is often considered confidential business information and is not revealed or it is only partly revealed (i.e., identification to the genus, not to the species). That paucity of information complicates the evaluation of the risk associated with their use. The accurate taxonomic identification of those micro-organisms is important so that a suitable risk assessment of the products can be conducted. To alleviate difficulties associated with adequate identification of micro-organisms in MBCP and other products containing micro-organisms, a microbial identification framework for risk assessment (MIFRA) has been elaborated. It serves to provide guidance on a polyphasic tiered approach, combining the data obtained from the use of various methods (i.e., polyphasic approach) combined with the sequential selection of the methods (i.e., tiered) to achieve a satisfactory identity of the micro-organism to an acceptable taxonomic level. The MIFRA is suitable in various risk assessment contexts for micro-organisms used in any commercial product. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  4. Model based risk assessment - the CORAS framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune; Thunem, Atoosa P-J.

    2004-04-15

    Traditional risk analysis and assessment is based on failure-oriented models of the system. In contrast to this, model-based risk assessment (MBRA) utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The target models are then used as input sources for complementary risk analysis and assessment techniques, as well as a basis for the documentation of the assessment results. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tested with successful outcome through a series of seven trial within the telemedicine and ecommerce areas. The CORAS project in general and the CORAS application of MBRA in particular have contributed positively to the visibility of model-based risk assessment and thus to the disclosure of several potentials for further exploitation of various aspects within this important research field. In that connection, the CORAS methodology's possibilities for further improvement towards utilization in more complex architectures and also in other application domains such as the nuclear field can be addressed. The latter calls for adapting the framework to address nuclear standards such as IEC 60880 and IEC 61513. For this development we recommend applying a trial driven approach within the nuclear field. The tool supported approach for combining risk analysis and system development also fits well with the HRP proposal for developing an Integrated Design Environment (IDE) providing efficient methods and tools to support control room systems design. (Author)

  5. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-01-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

  6. The comparative risk assessment framework and tools (CRAFT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Southern Research Station. USDA Forest Service

    2010-01-01

    To help address these challenges, the USDA Forest Service’s Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center (EFETAC) and the University of North Carolina Asheville’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC) designed a planning framework, called the Comparative Risk Assessment Framework and Tools (CRAFT). CRAFT is...

  7. Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of this document is to describe a Framework for conducting human health risk assessments that are responsive to the needs of decision‐making processes in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

  8. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Winsemius, H.C.; van Beek, L.P.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/14749799X; Jongman, B.; Ward, P.J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-01-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and

  9. A framework for risk assessment on lean production implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuliano Almeida Marodin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The organizational and technical complexity of implementing the lean principles and practices can become an extensively time consuming journey with few benefits. We argue that risk assessment can aid on the understanding and management of the major difficulties on the Lean production implementation (LPI. Thus, this paper proposes a framework for risk assessment on the LPI process. The literature review permitted to adapt the risk assessment steps to the characteristics of the LPI and develop data collection and analysis procedures for each step. The Sociotechnical systems (STS theory was brought in to improve the understanding of the context’s characteristics on the proposed framework because it has a major influence on the LPI. The framework was has five steps: (a defining the unit of analysis; (b describing the context; (c risk identification; (d risk analysis; and (e risk relationships modeling.

  10. Development of environmental risk assessment framework using index method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.W.; Wu, Y.

    2000-01-01

    This paper presents a newly developed framework for assessing the risk from events which are considered to be major accidents to the environment according to the classifications by the United Kingdom Department of Environment (DoE). The application of an environmental risk assessment framework using the newly developed index method is demonstrated by means of a case study. The framework makes use of Environmental Hazard Index (EHI) method by the United Kingdom AEA Technology for releases to river, but improves it by taking account to toxic dose rather than concentration; taking account of long-term effects including persistence and bio accumulation, not just short term effects; extending the method to all aspects of environment, not just rivers; and allowing account to be taken of design changes to mitigate the risk. The development of the framework has also led to a revision of the tolerability criteria to be used with the framework proposed earlier by weakness and recommend further work to improve this newly proposed environmental risk assessment framework. From the study, it is recommended that the environmental risk assessment framework be applied to a wide range of other case studies in order to further improve it. The framework should be modified to maintain consistency when the DoE revises its definitions of major accidents to the environment. Ease-of-use of the framework (and any other environmental framework) would be aided by the compilation of databases for environmental toxicity, river data and available consequence models. Further work could also be done to suggest methods of mitigating the risk and including them as numerical factors within method. (author)

  11. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  12. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  13. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  14. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  15. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-05-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM

  16. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. C. Winsemius

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population. The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE. We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from

  17. Multicriteria Decision Framework for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganin, Alexander A; Quach, Phuoc; Panwar, Mahesh; Collier, Zachary A; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Marchese, Dayton; Linkov, Igor

    2017-09-05

    Risk assessors and managers face many difficult challenges related to novel cyber systems. Among these challenges are the constantly changing nature of cyber systems caused by technical advances, their distribution across the physical, information, and sociocognitive domains, and the complex network structures often including thousands of nodes. Here, we review probabilistic and risk-based decision-making techniques applied to cyber systems and conclude that existing approaches typically do not address all components of the risk assessment triplet (threat, vulnerability, consequence) and lack the ability to integrate across multiple domains of cyber systems to provide guidance for enhancing cybersecurity. We present a decision-analysis-based approach that quantifies threat, vulnerability, and consequences through a set of criteria designed to assess the overall utility of cybersecurity management alternatives. The proposed framework bridges the gap between risk assessment and risk management, allowing an analyst to ensure a structured and transparent process of selecting risk management alternatives. The use of this technique is illustrated for a hypothetical, but realistic, case study exemplifying the process of evaluating and ranking five cybersecurity enhancement strategies. The approach presented does not necessarily eliminate biases and subjectivity necessary for selecting countermeasures, but provides justifiable methods for selecting risk management actions consistent with stakeholder and decisionmaker values and technical data. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A.

  18. A Computational Framework for Flood Risk Assessment in The Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.A. Markus

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The safety of dikes in The Netherlands, located in the delta of the rivers Rhine, Meuse and Scheldt, has been the subject of debate for more than ten years. The safety (or flood risk of a particular area may depend on the safety of other areas. This is referred to as effects of river system behaviour on flood risk (quantified as the estimated number of casualties and economic damage. A computational framework was developed to assess these effects. It consists of several components that are loosely coupled via data files and Tcl scripts to manage the individual programs and keep track of the state of the computations. The computations involved are lengthy (days or even weeks on a Linux cluster, which makes the framework currently more suitable for planning and design than for real-time operation. While the framework was constructed ad hoc, it can also be viewed more formally as a tuplespace Realising this makes it possible to adopt the philosophy for other similar frameworks.

  19. Framework for probabilistic flood risk assessment in an Alpine region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneeberger, Klaus; Huttenlau, Matthias; Steinberger, Thomas; Achleitner, Stefan; Stötter, Johann

    2014-05-01

    Flooding is among the natural hazards that regularly cause significant losses to property and human lives. The assessment of flood risk delivers crucial information for all participants involved in flood risk management and especially for local authorities and insurance companies in order to estimate the possible flood losses. Therefore a framework for assessing flood risk has been developed and is introduced with the presented contribution. Flood risk is thereby defined as combination of the probability of flood events and of potential flood damages. The probability of occurrence is described through the spatial and temporal characterisation of flood. The potential flood damages are determined in the course of vulnerability assessment, whereas, the exposure and the vulnerability of the elements at risks are considered. Direct costs caused by flooding with the focus on residential building are analysed. The innovative part of this contribution lies on the development of a framework which takes the probability of flood events and their spatio-temporal characteristic into account. Usually the probability of flooding will be determined by means of recurrence intervals for an entire catchment without any spatial variation. This may lead to a misinterpretation of the flood risk. Within the presented framework the probabilistic flood risk assessment is based on analysis of a large number of spatial correlated flood events. Since the number of historic flood events is relatively small additional events have to be generated synthetically. This temporal extrapolation is realised by means of the method proposed by Heffernan and Tawn (2004). It is used to generate a large number of possible spatial correlated flood events within a larger catchment. The approach is based on the modelling of multivariate extremes considering the spatial dependence structure of flood events. The input for this approach are time series derived from river gauging stations. In a next step the

  20. A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulser-Piggott, Roxane; Bowman, Gary; Hughes, Martin

    2017-10-11

    A better understanding of the uncertainty that exists in models used for seismic risk assessment is critical to improving risk-based decisions pertaining to earthquake safety. Current models estimating the probability of collapse of a building do not consider comprehensively the nature and impact of uncertainty. This article presents a model framework to enhance seismic risk assessment and thus gives decisionmakers a fuller understanding of the nature and limitations of the estimates. This can help ensure that risks are not over- or underestimated and the value of acquiring accurate data is appreciated fully. The methodology presented provides a novel treatment of uncertainties in input variables, their propagation through the model, and their effect on the results. The study presents ranges of possible annual collapse probabilities for different case studies on buildings in different parts of the world, exposed to different levels of seismicity, and with different vulnerabilities. A global sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the significance of uncertain variables. Two key outcomes are (1) that the uncertainty in ground-motion conversion equations has the largest effect on the uncertainty in the calculation of annual collapse probability; and (2) the vulnerability of a building appears to have an effect on the range of annual collapse probabilities produced, i.e., the level of uncertainty in the estimate of annual collapse probability, with less vulnerable buildings having a smaller uncertainty. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Conceptual risk assessment framework for global change risk analysis SRP

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Elphinstone, CD

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available on two of the most important underlying factors supporting the ecosystem: productivity and hypoxia afiecting harmful algae blooms (HABs) and the rock lobsters. The risk regimes are a function of two time scales | a ‘high’ wind stress in early summer... is a condition which can lead to various negative impacts depending on the particular marine life, for instance rock lobsters stranding. The exact deflnitions of the two seasonal occurrences resulting in the risk event, ‘high’ wind stress in ‘early...

  2. LAVA: A conceptual framework for automated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.T.; Brown, D.C.; Erkkila, T.H.; FitzGerald, P.D.; Lim, J.J.; Massagli, L.; Phillips, J.R.; Tisinger, R.M.

    1986-01-01

    At the Los Alamos National Laboratory the authors are developing the framework for generating knowledge-based systems that perform automated risk analyses on an organizations's assets. An organization's assets can be subdivided into tangible and intangible assets. Tangible assets include facilities, material, personnel, and time, while intangible assets include such factors as reputation, employee morale, and technical knowledge. The potential loss exposure of an asset is dependent upon the threats (both static and dynamic), the vulnerabilities in the mechanisms protecting the assets from the threats, and the consequences of the threats successfully exploiting the protective systems vulnerabilities. The methodology is based upon decision analysis, fuzzy set theory, natural language processing, and event tree structures. The Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (LAVA) methodology has been applied to computer security. The program generates both summary reports for use by both management personnel and detailed reports for use by operations staff

  3. PETRORISK: a risk assessment framework for petroleum substances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redman, Aaron D; Parkerton, Thomas F; Comber, Mike H I; Paumen, Miriam Leon; Eadsforth, Charles V; Dmytrasz, Bhodan; King, Duncan; Warren, Christopher S; den Haan, Klaas; Djemel, Nadia

    2014-07-01

    PETRORISK is a modeling framework used to evaluate environmental risk of petroleum substances and human exposure through these routes due to emissions under typical use conditions as required by the European regulation for the Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH). Petroleum substances are often complex substances comprised of hundreds to thousands of individual hydrocarbons. The physicochemical, fate, and effects properties of the individual constituents within a petroleum substance can vary over several orders of magnitude, complicating risk assessment. PETRORISK combines the risk assessment strategies used on single chemicals with the hydrocarbon block approach to model complex substances. Blocks are usually defined by available analytical characterization data on substances that are expressed in terms of mass fractions for different structural chemical classes that are specified as a function of C number or boiling point range. The physicochemical and degradation properties of the blocks are determined by the properties of representative constituents in that block. Emissions and predicted exposure concentrations (PEC) are then modeled using mass-weighted individual representative constituents. Overall risk for various environmental compartments at the regional and local level is evaluated by comparing the PECs for individual representative constituents to corresponding predicted no-effect concentrations (PNEC) derived using the Target Lipid Model. Risks to human health are evaluated using the overall predicted human dose resulting from multimedia environmental exposure to a substance-specific derived no-effect level (DNEL). A case study is provided to illustrate how this modeling approach has been applied to assess the risks of kerosene manufacture and use as a fuel. © 2014 SETAC.

  4. A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, P.; Zennaro, F.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Santini, M.; Trabucco, A.; Zollo, A. L.; Galluccio, G.; Marcomini, A.

    2017-12-01

    In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, raising frequency, duration and intensity of drought events, mainly driven by climate change dynamics, are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, limiting crop development and yield especially where agriculture largely depends on irrigation. The achievement of an affordable and sustainable equilibrium between available water resources and irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. The present study proposed a state-of-the art conceptual framework and computational methodology to assess the potential water scarcity risk, due to changes in climate trends and variability, on irrigated croplands. The model has been tested over the irrigated agriculture of Puglia Region, a semi-arid territory with the largest agricultural production in Southern Italy. The methodology, based on the Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, has been applied within a scenario-based hazard framework. Regional climate projections, under alternative greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and for two different timeframes, 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 compared to the baseline 1976-2005 period, have been used to drive hydrological simulations of river inflow to the most important reservoirs serving irrigation purposes in Puglia. The novelty of the proposed RRA-based approach does not simply rely on the concept of risk as combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, but rather elaborates detailed (scientific and conceptual) framing and computational description of these factors, to produce risk spatial pattern maps and related statistics distinguishing the most critical areas (risk hot spots).. The application supported the identification of the most affected areas (i.e. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia under RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario), crops (fruit trees and vineyards), and, finally, the vulnerability

  5. Novel flood risk assessment framework for rapid decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Koursari, Eftychia; Solley, Mark

    2016-04-01

    The impacts of catastrophic flooding, have significantly increased over the last few decades. This is due to primarily the increased urbanisation in ever-expanding mega-cities as well as due to the intensification both in magnitude and frequency of extreme hydrologic events. Herein a novel conceptual framework is presented that incorporates the use of real-time information to inform and update low dimensionality hydraulic models, to allow for rapid decision making towards preventing loss of life and safeguarding critical infrastructure. In particular, a case study from the recent UK floods in the area of Whitesands (Dumfries), is presented to demonstrate the utility of this approach. It is demonstrated that effectively combining a wealth of readily available qualitative information (such as crowdsourced visual documentation or using live data from sensing techniques), with existing quantitative data, can help appropriately update hydraulic models and reduce modelling uncertainties in future flood risk assessments. This approach is even more useful in cases where hydraulic models are limited, do not exist or were not needed before unpredicted dynamic modifications to the river system took place (for example in the case of reduced or eliminated hydraulic capacity due to blockages). The low computational cost and rapid assessment this framework offers, render it promising for innovating in flood management.

  6. Ecological risk assessment as a framework for environmental impact assessments

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Claassen, Marius

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Environmental impact assessments in South Africa are usually conducted according to the integrated environmental management (IEM) procedure. The preliminary investigation reported here, indicated that most of the ecological requirements specified...

  7. LAVA: a conceptual framework for automated risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.T.; Brown, D.C.; Erkkila, T.H.; FitzGerald, P.D.; Lim, J.J.; Massagli, L.; Phillips, J.R.; Tisinger, R.M.

    1986-01-01

    At the Los Alamos National Laboratory we are developing the framework for generating knowledge-based systems that perform automated risk analyses on an organization's assets. An organization's assets can be subdivided into tangible and intangible assets. Tangible assets include facilities, materiel, personnel, and time, while intangible assets include such factors as reputation, employee morale, and technical knowledge. The potential loss exposure of an asset is dependent upon the threats (both static and dynamic), the vulnerabilities in the mechanisms protecting the assets from the threats, and the consequences of the threats successfully exploiting the protective systems vulnerabilities. The methodology is based upon decision analysis, fuzzy set theory, natural-language processing, and event-tree structures. The Los Alamos Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (LAVA) methodology has been applied to computer security. LAVA is modeled using an interactive questionnaire in natural language and is fully automated on a personal computer. The program generates both summary reports for use by both management personnel and detailed reports for use by operations staff. LAVA has been in use by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the National Bureau of Standards for nearly two years and is presently under evaluation by other governmental agencies. 7 refs

  8. Marburg biosafety and biosecurity scale (MBBS): a framework for risk assessment and risk communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickmann, Petra; Apfel, Franklin; Biedenkopf, Nadine; Eickmann, Markus; Becker, Stephan

    2015-01-01

    Current risk assessment and risk communication of biosafety and biosecurity concerns lack a convenient metric and conceptual framework. The absence of such a systematic tool makes communication more difficult and can lead to ambiguous public perception of and response to laboratory biosafety incidents and biosecurity threats. A new 7-category scoring scale is proposed for incidents and situations in laboratories related to the handling of human and animal pathogens. The scale aims to help clarify risk categories, facilitate coordination and communication, and improve public understanding of risk related to biosafety and biosecurity.

  9. Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk case study: a framework for assessing climate change risks to forest carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke

    2012-01-01

    Forest ecosystems have the ability to reduce the effects of climate change through the sequestration of carbon (C) (Pan et al. 2011) as well as contribute to net emissions through disturbance events such as wildfires and widespread tree mortality (Kurz et al. 2008). A conceptual framework for assessing climate-change risks to forest ecosystem C stocks facilitates...

  10. Risk Assessment of Bioaccumulation Substances. Part II: Description of a Model Framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tamis, J.E.; Vries, de P.; Karman, C.C.

    2009-01-01

    This report provides a proposal for a framework for risk assessment of bioaccumulative substances, either from produced water discharges or present as background contamination. The proposed framework is such that it is compatible to the current EIF risk assessment models that are used in the

  11. Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter II, G.W.

    2003-06-18

    The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.

  12. Critical analysis of frameworks and approaches to assess the environmental risks of nanomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    and approaches which have been developed or proposed by large organizations or regulatory bodies for NM. These frameworks and approaches were evaluated and assessed based on a select number of criteria which have been previously proposed as important parameters for inclusion in successful risk assessment......7.1.7 Critical analysis of frameworks and approaches to assess the environmental risks of nanomaterials Khara D. Grieger1, Igor Linkov2, Steffen Foss Hansen1, Anders Baun1 1Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark 2Environmental Laboratory, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Brookline, USA...... Email: kdg@env.dtu.dk Scientists, organizations, governments, and policy-makers are currently involved in reviewing, adapting, and formulating risk assessment frameworks and strategies to understand and assess the potential environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (NM). It is becoming...

  13. Pesticide Cumulative Risk Assessment: Framework for Screening Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides guidance on how to screen groups of pesticides for cumulative evaluation using a two-step approach: begin with evaluation of available toxicological information and, if necessary, follow up with a risk-based screening approach.

  14. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  15. Specifying risk management standard for flood risk assessment: a framework for resources allocation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunika Anastasia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available General risk management standard, e.g. ISO 31000:2009, approaches risk as a coin with a pair of two sides, i.e. the threat and the opportunity. However, it is hardly the case of flood events which mainly come as threats. Despite the contrary, this study explores the potential applicability of the available risk management standards specifically for flood. It then also synthesizes the components to result a framework for allocating resources among various strategies to result the optimum flood risk reduction. In order to review its applicability, the framework is then reviewed using several historic flood risk reduction cases. Its results are qualitatively discussed and summarized including the possible improvement of the framework for further applications.

  16. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  17. Suicide Risk Assessment Training for Psychology Doctoral Programs: Core Competencies and a Framework for Training

    OpenAIRE

    Cramer, Robert J.; Johnson, Shara M.; McLaughlin, Jennifer; Rausch, Emilie M.; Conroy, Mary Alice

    2013-01-01

    Clinical and counseling psychology programs currently lack adequate evidence-based competency goals and training in suicide risk assessment. To begin to address this problem, this article proposes core competencies and an integrated training framework that can form the basis for training and research in this area. First, we evaluate the extent to which current training is effective in preparing trainees for suicide risk assessment. Within this discussion, sample and methodological issues are ...

  18. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  19. Marked point process framework for living probabilistic safety assessment and risk follow-up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arjas, Elja; Holmberg, Jan

    1995-01-01

    We construct a model for living probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) by applying the general framework of marked point processes. The framework provides a theoretically rigorous approach for considering risk follow-up of posterior hazards. In risk follow-up, the hazard of core damage is evaluated synthetically at time points in the past, by using some observed events as logged history and combining it with re-evaluated potential hazards. There are several alternatives for doing this, of which we consider three here, calling them initiating event approach, hazard rate approach, and safety system approach. In addition, for a comparison, we consider a core damage hazard arising in risk monitoring. Each of these four definitions draws attention to a particular aspect in risk assessment, and this is reflected in the behaviour of the consequent risk importance measures. Several alternative measures are again considered. The concepts and definitions are illustrated by a numerical example

  20. A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

    2010-01-01

    The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommendations are made as to how current practice could evolve to support a fully risk- and performance-based multipollutant air quality management system. The ability to implement a risk assessment framework in a credible and policy-relevant manner depends on the availability of component models and data which are scientifically sound and developed with an understanding of their application in integrated assessments. The same can be said about accountability assessments used to evaluate the outcomes of decisions made using such frameworks. The existing risk analysis framework, although typically applied to individual pollutants, is conceptually well suited for analyzing multipollutant management actions. Many elements of this framework, such as emissions and air quality modeling, already exist with multipollutant characteristics. However, the framework needs to be supported with information on exposure and concentration response relationships that result from multipollutant health studies. Because the causal chain that links management actions to emission reductions, air quality improvements, exposure reductions and health outcomes is parallel between prospective risk analyses and retrospective accountability assessments, both types of assessment should be placed within a single framework with common metrics and indicators where possible. Improvements in risk reductions can be obtained by adopting a multipollutant risk analysis framework within the current air quality management

  1. A framework for assessing ecological risks of petroleum-derived materials in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, G.W. II

    1997-05-01

    Ecological risk assessment estimates the nature and likelihood of effects of human actions on nonhuman organisms, populations, and ecosystems. It is intended to be clearer and more rigorous in its approach to estimation of effects and uncertainties than previously employed methods of ecological assessment. Ecological risk assessment is characterized by a standard paradigm that includes problem formulation, analysis of exposure and effects, risk characterization, and communication with a risk manager. This report provides a framework that applies the paradigm to the specific problem of assessing the ecological risks of petroleum in soil. This type of approach requires that assessments be performed in phases: (1) a scoping assessment to determine whether there is a potential route of exposure for potentially significant ecological receptors; (2) a screening assessment to determine whether exposures could potentially reach toxic levels; and (3) a definitive assessment to estimate the nature, magnitude, and extent of risks. The principal technical issue addressed is the chemically complex nature of petroleum--a complexity that may be dealt with by assessing risks on the basis of properties of the whole material, properties of individual chemicals that are representative of chemical classes, distributions of properties of the constituents of chemical classes, properties of chemicals detected in the soil, and properties of indicator chemicals. The advantages and feasibility of these alternatives are discussed. The report concludes with research recommendations for improving each stage in the assessment process

  2. A Transparent Framework for guiding Radiological and Non-Radiological Contaminated Land Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Alex; Mathers, Dan

    2003-01-01

    A framework is presented that may be used as a transparent guidance to both radiological and non-radiological risk assessments. This framework has been developed by BNFL, with external consultation, to provide a systematic approach for identifying key system drivers and to guide associated research packages in light of data deficiencies and sources of model uncertainty. The process presented represents an advance on existing working practices yet combines regulator philosophy to produce a robust, comprehensive, cost-effective and transparent work package. It aims at lending added confidence to risk models thereby adding value to the decision process

  3. Framework for integrating human and animal data in chemical risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavelle, Karlene S; Robert Schnatter, A; Travis, Kim Z; Swaen, Gerard M H; Pallapies, Dirk; Money, Chris; Priem, Peter; Vrijhof, Henk

    2012-03-01

    Although regulatory agencies formally encourage the integration of all available data in chemical risk assessment, consistent implementation of this practice has been constrained by the lack of a clear, systematic method for doing so. In this paper, we describe a methodology for evaluating, classifying and integrating human and animal data into the risk assessment process that incorporates: (1) a balanced appraisal of human and animal data, (2) relevance to different stages of the risk assessment process, and (3) accommodation for different data quality requirements. The proposed framework offers a flexible, step-wise approach for determining which set of available data best support the chemical risk assessment that involves the rating and relative ranking of human and animal data quality. The evaluation of human data incorporates seven data quality elements, nature and specificity of the lead effect; evaluation of animal data incorporates data quality and relevance to humans. Results of simulations with selected chemicals previously evaluated in a formal risk assessment generally agreed with existing regulatory guidance. Application of the proposed framework across a wider range of chemical agents will improve transparency of the risk assessment process and validity of results, while informing continuous refinements to this evolving methodology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Towards a comprehensive assessment and framework for low and high flow water risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motschmann, Alina; Huggel, Christian; Drenkhan, Fabian; León, Christian

    2017-04-01

    Driven by international organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the past years have seen a move from a vulnerability concept of climate change impacts towards a risk framework. Risk is now conceived at the intersection of climate-driven hazard and socioeconomic-driven vulnerability and exposure. The concept of risk so far has been mainly adopted for sudden-onset events. However, for slow-onset and cumulative climate change impacts such as changing water resources there is missing clarity and experience how to apply a risk framework. Research has hardly dealt with the challenge of how to integrate both low and high flow risks in a common framework. Comprehensive analyses of risks related to water resources considering climate change within multi-dimensional drivers across different scales are complex and often missing in climate-sensitive mountain regions where data scarcity and inconsistencies represent important limitations. Here we review existing vulnerability and risk assessments of low and high flow water conditions and identify critical conceptual and practical gaps. Based on this, we develop an integrated framework for low and high flow water risks which is applicable to both past and future conditions. The framework explicitly considers a water balance model simulating both water supply and demand on a daily basis. We test and apply this new framework in the highly glacierized Santa River catchment (SRC, Cordillera Blanca, Peru), representative for many developing mountain regions with both low and high flow water risks and poor data availability. In fact, in the SRC, both low and high flow hazards, such as droughts and floods, play a central role especially for agricultural, hydropower, domestic and mining use. During the dry season (austral winter) people are increasingly affected by water scarcity due to shrinking glaciers supplying melt water. On the other hand during the wet season (austral summer) high flow water

  5. A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Dongfeng; Mosleh, Ali; Smidts, Carol

    2007-01-01

    Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments

  6. Elements at risk as a framework for assessing the vulnerability of communities to landslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Papathoma-Köhle

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of the vulnerability of communities prone to landslide related disasters is a topic that is growing in importance. Few studies discuss this issue and limited research has been carried out on the relationship between types of landslide and their potential impact on buildings and infrastructure. We outline a framework to undertake an assessment of the vulnerability of buildings to landslide utilising a similar framework used for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami damage. The framework is based on the development of an "elements at risk database" that takes into consideration the characteristics and use of the buildings, their importance for the local economy and the characteristics of the inhabitants (population density, age and so forth. The attributes that affect vulnerability are imported and examined within a GIS database which is used to visualise the physical, human and economic vulnerability. The results may have important implications for disaster management and emergency planning, and the database can be used by various end-users and stakeholders such as insurance companies, local authorities and the emergency services. The approach presented here can be integrated in to a wider more detailed "Framework for Landslide Risk and Vulnerability Assessment for Communities". We illustrate the potential of this framework and present preliminary results from Lichtenstein, Baden Württemberg, Germany.

  7. A framework for cumulative risk assessment in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moretto, Angelo; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Solomon, Keith R; Pastoor, Timothy P; Wilks, Martin F; Embry, Michelle R

    2017-02-01

    The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI) has developed a framework to support a transition in the way in which information for chemical risk assessment is obtained and used (RISK21). The approach is based on detailed problem formulation, where exposure drives the data acquisition process in order to enable informed decision-making on human health safety as soon as sufficient evidence is available. Information is evaluated in a transparent and consistent way with the aim of optimizing available resources. In the context of risk assessment, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) poses additional problems and questions that can be addressed using the RISK21 approach. The focus in CRA to date has generally been on chemicals that have common mechanisms of action. Recently, concern has also been expressed about chemicals acting on multiple pathways that lead to a common health outcome, and non-chemical other conditions (non-chemical stressors) that can lead to or modify a common outcome. Acknowledging that CRAs, as described above, are more conceptually, methodologically and computationally complex than traditional single-stressor risk assessments, RISK21 further developed the framework for implementation of workable processes and procedures for conducting assessments of combined effects from exposure to multiple chemicals and non-chemical stressors. As part of the problem formulation process, this evidence-based framework allows the identification of the circumstances in which it is appropriate to conduct a CRA for a group of compounds. A tiered approach is then proposed, where additional chemical stressors and/or non-chemical modulating factors (ModFs) are considered sequentially. Criteria are provided to facilitate the decision on whether or not to include ModFs in the formal quantitative assessment, with the intention to help focus the use of available resources to have the greatest potential to protect public health.

  8. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  9. Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2015-01-01

    Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources

  10. Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Hun Lee

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

  11. Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-06-15

    Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

  12. Pharmaceuticals in tap water: human health risk assessment and proposed monitoring framework in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Ho Wing; Jin, Ling; Wei, Si; Tsui, Mirabelle Mei Po; Zhou, Bingsheng; Jiao, Liping; Cheung, Pak Chuen; Chun, Yiu Kan; Murphy, Margaret Burkhardt; Lam, Paul Kwan Sing

    2013-07-01

    Pharmaceuticals are known to contaminate tap water worldwide, but the relevant human health risks have not been assessed in China. We monitored 32 pharmaceuticals in Chinese tap water and evaluated the life-long human health risks of exposure in order to provide information for future prioritization and risk management. We analyzed samples (n = 113) from 13 cities and compared detected concentrations with existing or newly-derived safety levels for assessing risk quotients (RQs) at different life stages, excluding the prenatal stage. We detected 17 pharmaceuticals in 89% of samples, with most detectable concentrations (92%) at risk levels, but 4 (i.e., dimetridazole, thiamphenicol, sulfamethazine, and clarithromycin) were found to have at least one life-stage RQ ≥ 0.01, especially for the infant and child life stages, and should be considered of high priority for management. We propose an indicator-based monitoring framework for providing information for source identification, water treatment effectiveness, and water safety management in China. Chinese tap water is an additional route of human exposure to pharmaceuticals, particularly for dimetridazole, although the risk to human health is low based on current toxicity data. Pharmaceutical detection and application of the proposed monitoring framework can be used for water source protection and risk management in China and elsewhere.

  13. Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mur, Lina; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Costard, Solenne; de la Torre, Ana; Jones, Bryony A; Martínez, Marta; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Fernando; Muñoz, María Jesús; Pfeiffer, Dirk U; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel; Wieland, Barbara

    2014-07-03

    The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway. The framework's results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar). The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model's results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.

  14. A framework for techno-economic & environmental sustainability analysis by risk assessment for conceptual process evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Sin, Gürkan; Carvalho, Ana

    2016-01-01

    for techno-economic and environmental sustainability analysis through risk assessment is proposed for the early-stage design and screening of conceptual process alternatives. The alternatives within the design space are analyzed following the framework’s work-flow, which targets the following: (i) quantify...... the economic risk; (ii) perform the monetary valuation of environmental impact categories under uncertainty; (iii) quantify the potential environmental risk; (iv) measure the alternatives’ eco-efficiency identifying possible trade-offs; and, lastly (v) propose a joint risk assessment matrix......The need to achieve a sustainable process performance has become increasingly important in order to keep a competitive advantage in the global markets. Development of comprehensive and systematic methods to accomplish this goal is the subject of this work. To this end, a multi-level framework...

  15. A framework for techno-economic & environmental sustainability analysis by risk assessment for conceptual process evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Sin, Gürkan; Carvalho, Ana

    2016-01-01

    the economic risk; (ii) perform the monetary valuation of environmental impact categories under uncertainty; (iii) quantify the potential environmental risk; (iv) measure the alternatives’ eco-efficiency identifying possible trade-offs; and, lastly (v) propose a joint risk assessment matrix......The need to achieve a sustainable process performance has become increasingly important in order to keep a competitive advantage in the global markets. Development of comprehensive and systematic methods to accomplish this goal is the subject of this work. To this end, a multi-level framework...... for techno-economic and environmental sustainability analysis through risk assessment is proposed for the early-stage design and screening of conceptual process alternatives. The alternatives within the design space are analyzed following the framework’s work-flow, which targets the following: (i) quantify...

  16. mHealth and mobile medical Apps: a framework to assess risk and promote safer use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Thomas Lorchan; Wyatt, Jeremy C

    2014-09-15

    The use of mobile medical apps by clinicians and others has grown considerably since the introduction of mobile phones. Medical apps offer clinicians the ability to access medical knowledge and patient data at the point of care, but several studies have highlighted apps that could compromise patient safety and are potentially dangerous. This article identifies a range of different kinds of risks that medical apps can contribute to and important contextual variables that can modify these risks. We have also developed a simple generic risk framework that app users, developers, and other stakeholders can use to assess the likely risks posed by a specific app in a specific context. This should help app commissioners, developers, and users to manage risks and improve patient safety.

  17. A new framework to assess risk for a spent fuel dry storage facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryu, J. H.; Jae, M. S.; Jung, C. W.

    2004-01-01

    A spent fuel dry storage facility is a dry cooling storage facility for storing irradiated nuclear fuel and associated radioactive materials. It has very small possibilities to release radiation materials. It means a safety analysis for a spent fuel dry storage facility is required before construction. In this study, a new framework for assessing risk associated with a spent fuel dry storage facility is represented. A safety assessment framework includes 3 modules such as assessment of basket/cylinder failure rates, that of overall storage system, and site modeling. A reliability physics model for failure rates, event tree analysis(ETA)/fault tree analysis for system analysis, Bayesian analysis for initial events data, and MACCS code for consequence analysis have been used in this study

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwag, Shinyoung; Gupta, Abhinav

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwag, Shinyoung [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Gupta, Abhinav, E-mail: agupta1@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

    2017-04-15

    Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

  20. A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

    2015-12-15

    Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. The conceptual framework for physical risk assessment in multi-purpose workplaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lasota Andrzej Marek

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In industry work related musculoskeletal disorders (WRMSDs are still a common problem which frequent cause of health problems, sick leave and it can result in decreased productivity, quality of work and increased absenteeism. Though, traditional manufacturing work practices do not enough take into account task variability issues during the work design – assessment process. Variations in task content and organizational work performance are due to effective use of equipments and reaching high level of productivity. But this variation has impact on work demand and risk to WRMSDs and makes some difficulties with assessment of risk. Therefore, this study aims develop a framework for assessment multi-purpose workplaces. The proposed method integrates complementary concepts of widely known techniques used for evaluation of physical risk factors to WRMSDs on workplaces. Additionally the research framework is highlighting major differences in worker’s exposure to WRMSDs risk, potential impact on awkward postures, and how these findings can be used for finding solutions in a future ergonomic intervention.

  2. Ecological Risk Assessment Framework for Low-Altitude Overflights by Fixed-Wing and Rotary-Wing Military Aircraft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Efroymson, R.A.

    2001-01-12

    This is a companion report to the risk assessment framework proposed by Suter et al. (1998): ''A Framework for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources,'' hereafter referred to as the ''generic framework.'' The generic framework is an ecological risk assessment methodology for use in environmental assessments on Department of Defense (DoD) installations. In the generic framework, the ecological risk assessment framework of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 1998) is modified for use in the context of (1) multiple and diverse stressors and activities at a military installation and (2) risks resulting from causal chains, e.g., effects on habitat that indirectly impact wildlife. Both modifications are important if the EPA framework is to be used on military installations. In order for the generic risk assessment framework to be useful to DoD environmental staff and contractors, the framework must be applied to specific training and testing activities. Three activity-specific ecological risk assessment frameworks have been written (1) to aid environmental staff in conducting risk assessments that involve these activities and (2) to guide staff in the development of analogous frameworks for other DoD activities. The three activities are: (1) low-altitude overflights by fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft (this volume), (2) firing at targets on land, and (3) ocean explosions. The activities were selected as priority training and testing activities by the advisory committee for this project.

  3. Risk assessment framework on time impact: Infrastructure projects in soft soil during construction stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Low, W. W.; Wong, K. S.; Lee, J. L.

    2018-04-01

    With the growth of economy and population, there is an increase in infrastructure construction projects. As such, it is unavoidable to have construction projects on soft soil. Without proper risk management plan, construction projects are vulnerable to different types of risks which will have negative impact on project’s time, cost and quality. Literature review showed that little or none of the research is focused on the risk assessment on the infrastructure project in soft soil. Hence, the aim of this research is to propose a risk assessment framework in infrastructure projects in soft soil during the construction stage. This research was focused on the impact of risks on project time and internal risk factors. The research method was Analytical Hierarchy Process and the sample population was experienced industry experts who have experience in infrastructure projects. Analysis was completed and result showed that for internal factors, the five most significant risks on time element are lack of special equipment, potential contractual disputes and claims, shortage of skilled workers, delay/lack of materials supply, and insolvency of contractor/sub-contractor. Results indicated that resources risk factor play a critical role on project time frame in infrastructure projects in soft soil during the construction stage.

  4. The socio-economic dimension of flood risk assessment: insights of KULTURisk framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giupponi, Carlo; Gain, Animesh; Mojtahed, Vahid; Balbi, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    The approaches for vulnerability and risk assessment have found different and often contrasting solutions by various schools of thought. The two most prominent communities in this field are: climate change adaptation (CCA), and disaster risk reduction (DRR). Although those communities have usually in common the aim of reducing socio-economic vulnerability and risk to natural hazards, they have usually referred to different definitions and conceptualizations. For example, the DRR community has always driven more emphasis on the concept of risk and vulnerability is considered as a physical/environmental input for the quantification of risk, while the CCA research stream, mainly under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), considered vulnerability as an output deriving from social conditions and processes such as adaptation or maladaptation. Recently, with the publication of the IPCC Special Report on extreme events and disasters (IPCC-SREX), the notions of vulnerability and risk are somehow integrated in order to jointly consider both climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. The IPCC-SREX indeed is expected to significantly contribute to find common language and methodological approaches across disciplines and, therefore, the opportunity emerges for proposing new operational solutions, consistent with the most recent evolution of concepts and terminology. Based on the development of the IPCC Report, the KULTURisk project developed an operational framework to support integrated assessment and decision support through the combination of contributions from diverse disciplinary knowledge, with emphasis on the social and economic dimensions. KIRAF (KULTURisk Integrated Risk Assessment Framework) is specifically aimed at comprehensively evaluate the benefits of risk mitigation measures with consideration of the dynamic context deriving from the consideration of climatic changes and their effects on natural disasters, within the

  5. Defining molecular initiating events in the adverse outcome pathway framework for risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Timothy E H; Goodman, Jonathan M; Gutsell, Steve; Russell, Paul J

    2014-12-15

    Consumer and environmental safety decisions are based on exposure and hazard data, interpreted using risk assessment approaches. The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) conceptual framework has been presented as a logical sequence of events or processes within biological systems which can be used to understand adverse effects and refine current risk assessment practices in ecotoxicology. This framework can also be applied to human toxicology and is explored on the basis of investigating the molecular initiating events (MIEs) of compounds. The precise definition of the MIE has yet to reach general acceptance. In this work we present a unified MIE definition: an MIE is the initial interaction between a molecule and a biomolecule or biosystem that can be causally linked to an outcome via a pathway. Case studies are presented, and issues with current definitions are addressed. With the development of a unified MIE definition, the field can look toward defining, classifying, and characterizing more MIEs and using knowledge of the chemistry of these processes to aid AOP research and toxicity risk assessment. We also present the role of MIE research in the development of in vitro and in silico toxicology and suggest how, by using a combination of biological and chemical approaches, MIEs can be identified and characterized despite a lack of detailed reports, even for some of the most studied molecules in toxicology.

  6. The Symbiose project: an integrated framework for performing environmental radiological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonze, M.A.; Mourlon, C.; Garcia-Sanchez, L.; Beaugelin, K.; Chen, T.; Le Dizes, S.

    2004-01-01

    Human health and ecological risk assessments usually require the integration of a wide range of environmental data and modelling approaches, with a varying level of detail dependent on the management objectives, the complexity of the site and the level of ignorance about the pollutant behaviour/toxicity. Like most scientists and assessors did it recently, we recognized the need for developing comprehensive, integrated and flexible approaches to risk assessment. To meet these needs, IRSN launched the Symbiose project (2002-2006) which aims first, at designing a framework for integrating and managing data, methods and knowledge of some relevance in radiological risk to humans/biota assessment studies, and second, at implementing this framework in an information management, modelling and calculation platform. Feasibility developments (currently completed) led to the specification of a fully integrated, object-oriented and hierarchical approach for describing the fate, transport and effect of radionuclides in spatially-distributed environmental systems. This innovative approach has then been implemented in a platform prototype, main components of which are a user-friendly and modular simulation environment (e.g. using GoldSim toolbox), and a hierarchical object-oriented biosphere database. Both conceptual and technical developments will be presented here. (author)

  7. A Systems-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on Critical Infrastructures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakes, Benjamin Donald; Mattsson, Lars-Göran; Näsman, Per; Glazunov, Andrés Alayón

    2018-01-03

    Modern infrastructures are becoming increasingly dependent on electronic systems, leaving them more vulnerable to electrical surges or electromagnetic interference. Electromagnetic disturbances appear in nature, e.g., lightning and solar wind; however, they may also be generated by man-made technology to maliciously damage or disturb electronic equipment. This article presents a systematic risk assessment framework for identifying possible, consequential, and plausible intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI) attacks on an arbitrary distribution network infrastructure. In the absence of available data on IEMI occurrences, we find that a systems-based risk assessment is more useful than a probabilistic approach. We therefore modify the often applied definition of risk, i.e., a set of triplets containing scenario, probability, and consequence, to a set of quadruplets: scenario, resource requirements, plausibility, and consequence. Probability is "replaced" by resource requirements and plausibility, where the former is the minimum amount and type of equipment necessary to successfully carry out an attack scenario and the latter is a subjective assessment of the extent of the existence of attackers who possess the motivation, knowledge, and resources necessary to carry out the scenario. We apply the concept of intrusion areas and classify electromagnetic source technology according to key attributes. Worst-case scenarios are identified for different quantities of attacker resources. The most plausible and consequential of these are deemed the most important scenarios and should provide useful decision support in a countermeasures effort. Finally, an example of the proposed risk assessment framework, based on notional data, is provided on a hypothetical water distribution network. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. A framework for evaluating innovative statistical and risk assessment tools to solve environment restoration problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassig, N.L.; Gilbert, R.O.; Pulsipher, B.A.

    1991-09-01

    Environmental restoration activities at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site face complex issues due to history of varied past contaminant disposal practices. Data collection and analysis required for site characterization, pathway modeling, and remediation selection decisions must deal with inherent uncertainties and unique problems associated with the restoration. A framework for working through the statistical aspects of the site characterization and remediation selection problems is needed. This framework would facilitate the selection of appropriate statistical tools for solving unique aspects of the environmental restoration problem. This paper presents a framework for selecting appropriate statistical and risk assessment methods. The following points will be made: (1) pathway modelers and risk assessors often recognize that ''some type'' of statistical methods are required but don't work with statisticians on tools development in the early planning phases of the project; (2) statistical tools selection and development are problem-specific and often site-specific, further indicating a need for up-front involvement of statisticians; and (3) the right tool, applied in the right way can minimize sampling costs, get as much information as possible out of the data that does exist, provide consistency and defensibility for the results, and given structure and quantitative measures to decision risks and uncertainties

  9. Probabilistic framework for assessing the arsenic exposure risk from cooked fish consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Min-Pei; Wu, Chiu-Hua; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Chen, Wei-Yu; Chio, Chia-Pin; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Chung-Min

    2014-12-01

    Geogenic arsenic (As) contamination of groundwater is a major ecological and human health problem in southwestern and northeastern coastal areas of Taiwan. Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the human health risks from consuming raw and cooked fish that were cultured in groundwater As-contaminated ponds in Taiwan by linking a physiologically based pharmacokinetics model and a Weibull dose-response model. Results indicate that As levels in baked, fried, and grilled fish were higher than those of raw fish. Frying resulted in the greatest increase in As concentration, followed by grilling, with baking affecting the As concentration the least. Simulation results show that, following consumption of baked As-contaminated fish, the health risk to humans is fish is unlikely to pose a significant risk to human health. However, contaminated fish cooked by frying resulted in significant health risks, showing the highest cumulative incidence ratios of liver cancer. We also show that males have higher cumulative incidence ratio of liver cancer than females. We found that although cooking resulted in an increase for As levels in As-contaminated fish, the risk to human health of consuming baked fish is nevertheless acceptable. We suggest the adoption of baking as a cooking method and warn against frying As-contaminated fish. We conclude that the concentration of contaminants after cooking should be taken into consideration when assessing the risk to human health.

  10. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher W Woodall

    Full Text Available Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C, but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and evaluated a basic risk framework which combined the magnitude of C stocks and their associated probability of stock change in the context of global change across the US. For the purposes of this analysis, forest C was divided into five pools, two live (aboveground and belowground biomass and three dead (dead wood, soil organic matter, and forest floor with a risk framework parameterized using the US's national greenhouse gas inventory and associated forest inventory data across current and projected future Köppen-Geiger climate zones (A1F1 scenario. Results suggest that an initial forest C risk matrix may be constructed to focus attention on short- and long-term risks to forest C stocks (as opposed to implementation in decision making using inventory-based estimates of total stocks and associated estimates of variability (i.e., coefficient of variation among climate zones. The empirical parameterization of such a risk matrix highlighted numerous knowledge gaps: 1 robust measures of the likelihood of forest C stock change under climate change scenarios, 2 projections of forest C stocks given unforeseen socioeconomic conditions (i.e., land-use change, and 3 appropriate social responses to global change events for which there is no contemporary climate/disturbance analog (e.g., severe droughts in the Lake States. Coupling these current technical/social limits of developing a risk matrix to the biological processes of forest ecosystems (i.e., disturbance events and interaction among diverse forest C pools, potential positive feedbacks, and forest resiliency/recovery suggests an operational

  11. A Wide Area Risk Assessment Framework for Underwater Military Munitions Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, K. T.; Calantoni, J.

    2017-12-01

    Our objective was to develop a prototype statistical framework supporting Wide Area Assessment and Remedial Investigation decisions relating to the risk of unexploded ordnance and other military munitions concentrated in underwater environments. Decision making involving underwater munitions is inherently complex due to the high degree of uncertainty in the environmental conditions that force munitions responses (burial, decay, migration, etc.) and associated risks to the public. The prototype framework provides a consistent approach to accurately delineating contaminated areas at underwater munitions sites through the estimation of most probable concentrations. We adapted existing deterministic models and environmental data services for use within statistical modules that allowed the estimation of munition concentration given historic site information and environmental attributes. Ultimately this risk surface can be used to evaluate costs associated with various remediation approaches (e.g. removal, monitoring, etc.). Unfortunately, evaluation of the assessment framework was limited due to the lack of enduser data services from munition site managers. Of the 450 U.S. sites identified as having potential contamination with underwater munitions, assessment of available munitions information (including historic firing or disposal records, and recent ground-truth munitions samples) indicated very limited information in the databases. Example data types include the most probable munition types, approximate firing / disposal dates and locations, and any supportive munition survey or sampling results. However the overall technical goal to integrate trained statistical belief networks with detailed geophysical knowledge of sites, of sensors and of the underwater environment was demonstrated and should allow probabilistic estimates of the most likely outcomes and tradeoffs while managing uncertainty associated with military munitions response.

  12. A Model-based Framework for Risk Assessment in Human-Computer Controlled Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatanaka, Iwao

    2000-01-01

    The rapid growth of computer technology and innovation has played a significant role in the rise of computer automation of human tasks in modem production systems across all industries. Although the rationale for automation has been to eliminate "human error" or to relieve humans from manual repetitive tasks, various computer-related hazards and accidents have emerged as a direct result of increased system complexity attributed to computer automation. The risk assessment techniques utilized for electromechanical systems are not suitable for today's software-intensive systems or complex human-computer controlled systems. This thesis will propose a new systemic model-based framework for analyzing risk in safety-critical systems where both computers and humans are controlling safety-critical functions. A new systems accident model will be developed based upon modem systems theory and human cognitive processes to better characterize system accidents, the role of human operators, and the influence of software in its direct control of significant system functions. Better risk assessments will then be achievable through the application of this new framework to complex human-computer controlled systems.

  13. Wastewater treatment and public health in Nunavut: a microbial risk assessment framework for the Canadian Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daley, Kiley; Jamieson, Rob; Rainham, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    into the terrestrial and aquatic environment at random times. Northern communities rely heavily on their local surroundings as a source of food, drinking water, and recreation, thus creating the possibility of human exposure to wastewater effluent. Human exposure to microbial hazards present in municipal wastewater....... This review offers a conceptual framework and evaluation of current knowledge to enable the first microbial risk assessment of exposure scenarios associated with food-harvesting and recreational activities in Arctic communities, where simplified wastewater systems are being operated....

  14. Flood risk in a changing world - a coupled transdisciplinary modelling framework for flood risk assessment in an Alpine study area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneeberger, Klaus; Winter, Benjamin; Pazur, Robert; Förster, Kristian; Achleitner, Stefan; Bolliger, Janine

    2017-04-01

    Devastating flood events have caused substantial economic damage across Europe during past decades. Flood risk management has therefore become a topic of crucial interest across state agencies, research communities and the public sector including insurances. There is consensus that mitigating flood risk relies on impact assessments which quantitatively account for a broad range of aspects in a (changing) environment. Flood risk assessments which take into account the interaction between the drivers climate change, land-use change and socio-economic change might bring new insights to the understanding of the magnitude and spatial characteristic of flood risks. Furthermore, the comparative assessment of different adaptation measures can give valuable information for decision-making. With this contribution we present an inter- and transdisciplinary research project aiming at developing and applying such an impact assessment relying on a coupled modelling framework for the Province of Vorarlberg in Austria. Stakeholder engagement ensures that the final outcomes of our study are accepted and successfully implemented in flood management practice. The study addresses three key questions: (i) What are scenarios of land- use and climate change for the study area? (ii) How will the magnitude and spatial characteristic of future flood risk change as a result of changes in climate and land use? (iii) Are there spatial planning and building-protection measures which effectively reduce future flood risk? The modelling framework has a modular structure comprising modules (i) climate change, (ii) land-use change, (iii) hydrologic modelling, (iv) flood risk analysis, and (v) adaptation measures. Meteorological time series are coupled with spatially explicit scenarios of land-use change to model runoff time series. The runoff time series are combined with impact indicators such as building damages and results are statistically assessed to analyse flood risk scenarios. Thus, the

  15. Assessment of Evaluation Frameworks for Design of a Sexual Risk Prevention Game for Black Adolescent Girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sockolow, Paulina; Joppa, Meredith; Zhu, Jichen

    2018-01-01

    Adolescent sexual risk behavior (SRB), a major public health problem affects urban Black adolescent girls increasing their health disparities and risks for sexually transmitted infections. Collaborating with these adolescents, we designed a game for smartphones that incorporates elements of trauma-informed care and social cognitive theory to reduce SRB. Game researchers promote use of a comprehensive, multipurpose framework for development and evaluation of games for health applications. Our first game development step was framework selection and measurable health outcomes identification. Literature search identified two health game frameworks, both incorporating pedagogical theory, learning theory, and gaming requirements. Arnab used the IM + LM-GM framework to develop and implement a game in a school intervention program. Yusoff's framework was developed for use during game design. We investigated concordance and discordance between our SRB game design characteristics and each framework's components. Findings indicated Arnab's framework was sufficiently comprehensive to guide development of our game and outcome measure selection.

  16. Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Phillip

    2016-01-01

    Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

  17. Nuclear energy and Indian society: Public engagement, risk assessment and legal frameworks - Summary of the proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kini, Els Reynaers; Dipankar Bandyopadhyay, I.; Kanwar, Bhanudey

    2014-01-01

    The Nuclear Law Association (NLA) has organised its 3. Annual Meeting with the specific aim to deliberate on public engagement, consultation and acceptance of nuclear energy projects. The meeting further aimed to seek a better understanding of the necessary legal framework for a safe nuclear energy program in India. The themes covered by the conference were: Public engagement, consultation and acceptance; Nuclear energy safety and public discourse; Case studies from India on public engagement; Land acquisition and EIA in India; Safety regulations and its enforcement; Nuclear regulatory institutions; Siting, consent and project execution; Nuclear liability and compensation. The meeting was organised in 3 sessions dealing with: 1 - Public engagement, consultation and acceptance of nuclear projects: - Sociological context of public engagement and consultation, - Current state of affairs and new approaches to public consultation, - Case studies from new green field nuclear project sites, - Public opinion and acceptability for nuclear energy projects, - Role of State, NGOs and Public; 2 - Vales, Attitudes and Acceptability - Lessons from other countries: - Fukushima and nuclear energy choices, - Social dimensions of nuclear power, - Public engagement, acceptance and regulatory process, - Management of HLW. 3 - Legal Framework for a Safe and Secure Nuclear Energy Program: - Safety regulations and its enforcement, - Nuclear regulatory institutions, - Siting, consent and project execution, - Environmental impact assessments and plans, - Nuclear liability and compensation. Several of the papers presented will be published in the Journal of Risk Research in early 2015 as part of the Special Issue on Nuclear Energy and Indian Society: Public Engagement, Risk Assessment and Legal Frameworks. This article is the summary of the proceedings

  18. Implementing a framework for integrating toxicokinetics into human health risk assessment for agrochemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Claire; Hays, Sean; McCoy, Alene T; McFadden, Lisa G; Aggarwal, Manoj; Rasoulpour, Reza J; Juberg, Daland R

    2016-03-01

    A strategic and comprehensive program in which toxicokinetic (TK) measurements are made for all agrochemicals undergoing toxicity testing (both new compounds and compounds already registered for use) is described. This approach provides the data to more accurately assess the toxicokinetics of agrochemicals and their metabolites in laboratory animals and humans. Having this knowledge provides the ability to conduct more insightful toxicity studies, refine and interpret exposure assessments and reduce uncertainty in risk assessments. By developing a better understanding of TK across species, including humans via in vitro metabolism studies, any differences across species in TK can be identified early and the most relevant species can be selected for toxicity tests. It also provides the ability to identify any non-linearities in TK as a function of dose, which in turn can be used to identify a kinetically derived maximum dose (KMD) and avoid dosing inappropriately outside of the kinetic linear range. Measuring TK in key life stages also helps to identify changes in ADME parameters from in utero to adults. A robust TK database can also be used to set internal concentration based "Reference Concentrations" and Biomonitoring Equivalents (BE), and support selection of Chemical Specific Adjustment Factors (CSAF). All of these factors support the reduction of uncertainty throughout the entire risk assessment process. This paper outlines how a TK research strategy can be integrated into new agrochemical toxicity testing programs, together with a proposed Framework for future use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Real-Time Risk Assessment Framework for Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ancel, Ersin; Capristan, Francisco M.; Foster, John V.; Condotta, Ryan

    2017-01-01

    The new Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Small Unmanned Aircraft rule (Part 107) marks the first national regulations for commercial operation of small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) under 55 pounds within the National Airspace System (NAS). Although sUAS flights may not be performed beyond visual line-of-sight or over non- participant structures and people, safety of sUAS operations must still be maintained and tracked at all times. Moreover, future safety-critical operation of sUAS (e.g., for package delivery) are already being conceived and tested. NASA's Unmanned Aircraft System Trac Management (UTM) concept aims to facilitate the safe use of low-altitude airspace for sUAS operations. This paper introduces the UTM Risk Assessment Framework (URAF) which was developed to provide real-time safety evaluation and tracking capability within the UTM concept. The URAF uses Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to propagate off -nominal condition probabilities based on real-time component failure indicators. This information is then used to assess the risk to people on the ground by calculating the potential impact area and the effects of the impact. The visual representation of the expected area of impact and the nominal risk level can assist operators and controllers with dynamic trajectory planning and execution. The URAF was applied to a case study to illustrate the concept.

  20. Considerations of nano-QSAR/QSPR models for nanopesticide risk assessment within the European legislative framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villaverde, Juan José; Sevilla-Morán, Beatriz; López-Goti, Carmen; Alonso-Prados, José Luis; Sandín-España, Pilar

    2018-09-01

    The European market for pesticides is currently legislated through the well-developed Regulation (EC) No. 1107/2009. This regulation promotes the competitiveness of European agriculture, recognizing the necessity of safe pesticides for human and animal health and the environment to protect crops against pests, diseases and weeds. In this sense, nanotechnology can provide a tremendous opportunity to achieve a more rational use of pesticides. However, the lack of information regarding nanopesticides and their fate and behavior in the environment and their effects on human and animal health is inhibiting rapid nanopesticide incorporation into European Union agriculture. This review analyzes the recent state of knowledge on nanopesticide risk assessment, highlighting the challenges that need to be overcame to accelerate the arrival of these new tools for plant protection to European agricultural professionals. Novel nano-Quantitative Structure-Activity/Structure-Property Relationship (nano-QSAR/QSPR) tools for risk assessment are analyzed, including modeling methods and validation procedures towards the potential of these computational instruments to meet the current requirements for authorization of nanoformulations. Future trends on these issues, of pressing importance within the context of the current European pesticide legislative framework, are also discussed. Standard protocols to make high-quality and well-described datasets for the series of related but differently sized nanoparticles/nanopesticides are required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danyluk, Michelle D; Schaffner, Donald W

    2011-05-01

    This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.

  2. Conceptual Framework for Trait-Based Ecological Risk Assessment for Wildlife Populations Exposed to Pesticides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Between screening level risk assessments and complex ecological models, a need exists for practical identification of risk based on general information about species, chemicals, and exposure scenarios. Several studies have identified demographic, biological, and toxicological fa...

  3. Demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF): Apache Longbow - Hell Missile Test at Yuma Proving Ground

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Efroymson, R.A.

    2002-05-09

    This ecological risk assessment for a testing program at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, is a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF; Suter et al. 2001). The demonstration is intended to illustrate how risk assessment guidance concerning-generic military training and testing activities and guidance concerning a specific type of activity (e.g., low-altitude aircraft overflights) may be implemented at a military installation. MERAF was developed with funding from the Strategic Research and Development Program (SERDP) of the Department of Defense. Novel aspects of MERAF include: (1) the assessment of risks from physical stressors using an ecological risk assessment framework, (2) the consideration of contingent or indirect effects of stressors (e.g., population-level effects that are derived from habitat or hydrological changes), (3) the integration of risks associated with different component activities or stressors, (4) the emphasis on quantitative risk estimates and estimates of uncertainty, and (5) the modularity of design, permitting components of the framework to be used in various military risk assessments that include similar activities. The particular subject of this report is the assessment of ecological risks associated with a testing program at Cibola Range of Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona. The program involves an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, i.e., M60-A1 tanks. Thus, the three component activities of the Apache-Hellfire test were: (1) helicopter overflight, (2) missile firing, and (3) tracked vehicle movement. The demonstration was limited, to two ecological endpoint entities (i.e., potentially susceptible and valued populations or communities): woody desert wash communities and mule deer populations. The core assessment area is composed of about 126 km{sup 2} between the Chocolate and Middle Mountains. The core time of the program is a three-week period, including fourteen days of

  4. Demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF): Apache Longbow - Hell Missile Test at Yuma Proving Ground

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efroymson, R.A.

    2002-01-01

    This ecological risk assessment for a testing program at Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona, is a demonstration of the Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF; Suter et al. 2001). The demonstration is intended to illustrate how risk assessment guidance concerning-generic military training and testing activities and guidance concerning a specific type of activity (e.g., low-altitude aircraft overflights) may be implemented at a military installation. MERAF was developed with funding from the Strategic Research and Development Program (SERDP) of the Department of Defense. Novel aspects of MERAF include: (1) the assessment of risks from physical stressors using an ecological risk assessment framework, (2) the consideration of contingent or indirect effects of stressors (e.g., population-level effects that are derived from habitat or hydrological changes), (3) the integration of risks associated with different component activities or stressors, (4) the emphasis on quantitative risk estimates and estimates of uncertainty, and (5) the modularity of design, permitting components of the framework to be used in various military risk assessments that include similar activities. The particular subject of this report is the assessment of ecological risks associated with a testing program at Cibola Range of Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona. The program involves an Apache Longbow helicopter firing Hellfire missiles at moving targets, i.e., M60-A1 tanks. Thus, the three component activities of the Apache-Hellfire test were: (1) helicopter overflight, (2) missile firing, and (3) tracked vehicle movement. The demonstration was limited, to two ecological endpoint entities (i.e., potentially susceptible and valued populations or communities): woody desert wash communities and mule deer populations. The core assessment area is composed of about 126 km 2 between the Chocolate and Middle Mountains. The core time of the program is a three-week period, including fourteen days of

  5. Is there a need for a universal benefit-risk assessment framework for medicines? Regulatory and industry perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leong, James; McAuslane, Neil; Walker, Stuart; Salek, Sam

    2013-09-01

    To explore the current status and need for a universal benefit-risk framework for medicines in regulatory agencies and pharmaceutical companies. A questionnaire was developed and sent to 14 mature regulatory agencies and 24 major companies. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics, for a minority of questions preceded by manual grouping of the responses. Overall response rate was 82%, and study participants included key decision makers from agencies and companies. None used a fully quantitative system, most companies preferring a qualitative method. The major reasons for this group not using semi-quantitative or quantitative systems were lack of a universal and scientifically validated framework. The main advantages of a benefit-risk framework were that it provided a systematic standardised approach to decision-making and that it acted as a tool to enhance quality of communication. It was also reported that a framework should be of value to both agencies and companies throughout the life cycle of a product. They believed that it is possible to develop an overarching benefit-risk framework that should involve relevant stakeholders in the development, validation and application of a universal framework. The entire cohort indicated common barriers to implementing a framework were resource limitations, a lack of knowledge and a scientifically validated and acceptable framework. Stakeholders prefer a semi-quantitative, overarching framework that incorporates a toolbox of different methodologies. A coordinating committee of relevant stakeholders should be formed to guide its development and implementation. Through engaging the stakeholders, these outcomes confirm sentiments and need for developing a universal benefit-risk assessment framework. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsné Simon, E.

    2010-01-01

    The Scientific Panel on Plant Health was requested by EFSA to develop a guidance document on a harmonised framework for risk assessment of organisms harmful to plants and plant products and the identification and evaluation of risk management options. The document provides guiding principles on a...

  7. An application of the ESD framework to the probabilistic risk assessment of dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swaminathan, S.; Smidts, Carol

    2000-01-01

    Dynamic reliability is the probabilistic study of man-machine-software systems affected by an underlying physical process. The theory of probabilistic dynamics established that dynamic reliability methodologies are essentially semi-Markovian frameworks and can be expressed by an extension of the Chapman-Kolmogorov equation. The mathematical complexity associated with the assessment of dynamic systems' behaviour can be rather overwhelming for real life size systems. This is due to the fact that dynamic methodologies emphasize a component based representation rather than the sequence based representation used in the traditional Event Tree/Fault Tree framework or in the original Event Sequence Diagram (ESD) Framework. An extension of the ESD framework was proposed that facilitates capture of dynamic situations. The modeling framework is composed of events, gates, conditions, competitions and constraints which express many of the dynamic situations encountered in the evolution of accidents. The following paper illustrates an application of this extended ESD framework on a complex dynamic application. The problem at hand is an extension of a problem extensively studied in the validation of dynamic reliability algorithms, a simplified model of the fast reactor Europa. A discussion on how ESDs can help in guiding dynamic reliability simulations as well as aggregating and binning the numerous scenarios generated by dynamic reliability algorithms is provided.(author)

  8. A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Richard J.; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N.; Watson, Geoff V. R.; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N.; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W.

    2018-06-01

    Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  9. A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Darch, Geoff; Paulson, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712793

  10. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto Domingo, Nina

    Flood risk in cities is strongly affected by the development of the city itself. Many studies focus on changes in the flood hazard as a result of, for example, changed degrees of sealing in the catchment or climatic changes. However, urban developments in flood prone areas can affect the exposure...... to the hazard and thus have large impacts on flood risk. Different urban socio-economic development scenarios, rainfall inputs and options for the mitigation of flood risk, quickly lead to a large number of scenarios that need to be considered in the planning of the development of a city. This calls...... for automated analyses that allow the planner to quickly identify if, when and how infrastructure should be modified. Such analysis, which accounts for the two-way interactions between city development and flood risk, is possible only to a limited extent in existing tools. We have developed a software framework...

  11. A risk-based framework for assessing the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angus J Ferraro

    Full Text Available Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth's surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth's surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product.

  12. A Risk-Based Framework for Assessing the Effectiveness of Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferraro, Angus J.; Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.; Highwood, Eleanor J.

    2014-01-01

    Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth's surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth's surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product. PMID:24533155

  13. Development of a Quantitative Framework for Regulatory Risk Assessments: Probabilistic Approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2003-11-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point and have been based on deterministic calculations. Recently introduced Swedish regulations have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. A recent review of the overall structure of risk assessments in safety cases concluded that there are a number of decisions and assumptions in the development of a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. Regulatory understanding of these issues, potentially supported by independent calculations, is important in preparing for review of a proponent's risk assessment. One approach to evaluating risk in performance assessments is to use the concept of probability to express uncertainties, and to propagate these probabilities through the analysis. This report describes the various approaches available for undertaking such probabilistic analyses, both as a means of accounting for uncertainty in the determination of risk and more generally as a means of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The report discusses the overall nature of probabilistic analyses and how they are applied to both the calculation of risk and sensitivity analyses. Several approaches are available, including differential analysis, response surface methods and simulation. Simulation is the approach most commonly used, both in assessments for radioactive waste disposal and in other subject areas, and the report describes the key stages of this approach in detail. Decisions relating to the development of input PDFs, sampling methods (including approaches to the treatment

  14. Risk assessment framework of fate and transport models applied to hazardous waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, S.T.

    1993-06-01

    Risk assessment is an increasingly important part of the decision-making process in the cleanup of hazardous waste sites. Despite guidelines from regulatory agencies and considerable research efforts to reduce uncertainties in risk assessments, there are still many issues unanswered. This paper presents new research results pertaining to fate and transport models, which will be useful in estimating exposure concentrations and will help reduce uncertainties in risk assessment. These developments include an approach for (1) estimating the degree of emissions and concentration levels of volatile pollutants during the use of contaminated water, (2) absorption of organic chemicals in the soil matrix through the skin, and (3) steady state, near-field, contaminant concentrations in the aquifer within a waste boundary

  15. Dual-Use Threat Assessment Framework - An Attempt to Quantify the Risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stephen, E. R.; Lavigne, J. J.; Colton, B.

    2007-01-01

    Advances in the biosciences over the past decade have been rapid and transformative. While these advances offer significant benefit to society, they also provide very significant challenges in terms of security. Concerns over misuse and/or accidental use/release (dual use) although not new, are now being viewed through the security lens. There is a wide-spread view that public or private sector scientists, supported through investments by pharmaceutical, environmental and agricultural interests working in the fields that comprise biotechnology, posses the ability to assess the implications of their own work and work within a regime of self-control that is for the most part self-governing (codes of practice). On the other end of the spectrum are those that would codify or legislative control. All this is being done in the absence of a mechanism for quantifying the threat. This presentation will discuss the development of an assessment framework that addresses both actual and potential threats. The framework was developed based on available intelligence and other open source information along with interviews with those persons familiar with the concept of dual use and the multiple, sometimes competing agendas of a variety of interest groups. The framework will help to bring some clarity to the discussion and at the same time, help to inform those that are positioned to respond to the threat. (author)

  16. The Certification Framework: Risk Assessment for Safety and Effectiveness of Geologic Carbon Sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldenburg, C. M.; Nicot, J.; Bryant, S. L.

    2008-12-01

    Motivated by the dual objectives of (1) encouraging geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) as one of several strategies urgently needed to reduce CO2 emissions, and (2) protecting the environment from unintended CO2 injection-related impacts, we have developed a simple and transparent framework for certifying GCS safety and effectiveness at individual sites. The approach we developed, called the Certification Framework (CF), is proposed as a standard way for project proponents, regulators, and the public to analyze and understand risks and uncertainties of GCS. In the CF, we relate effective trapping to CO2 leakage risk, where we use the standard definition of risk involving the two factors (1) probability of a particular leakage scenario, and (2) impact of that leakage scenario. In short, if the CO2 leakage risk as calculated by the CF is below threshold values for the life of the project, then effective trapping is predicted and the site can be certified. The concept of effective trapping is more general than traditional "no migration" approaches to underground injection regulation. We achieve simplicity in the CF by using (1) wells and faults as the potential leakage pathways, (2) five compartments to represent where impacts can occur (underground sources of drinking water, hydrocarbon and mineral resources, near-surface environment, health and safety, and emission credits and atmosphere), (3) modeled CO2 fluxes and concentrations as proxies for impact to compartments, (4) broad ranges of storage formation properties to generate a catalog of simulated CO2 plumes, and (5) probabilities of intersection of the CO2 plume with the conduits and compartments. In a case study application of the CF for a saline formation GCS site in the Texas Gulf Coast, analysis with the CF suggested the overall leakage risk to be very small, with the largest contribution coming from risk to the near-surface environment due to potential leakage up abandoned wells, depending on the

  17. A spatially-based modeling framework for assessing the risks of soil-associated metals to bats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernout, Béatrice V.; Somerwill, Kate E.; Arnold, Kathryn E.; McClean, Colin J.; Boxall, Alistair B.A.

    2013-01-01

    Populations of some species of bats are declining in some regions of Europe. These declines are probably due to a range of pressures, including climate change, urbanization and exposure to toxins such as metals. This paper describes the development, paramaterisation and application of a spatially explicit modeling framework to predict the risks of soil-associated metals (lead, copper, zinc and cadmium) to bat health. Around 5.9% of areas where bats reside were predicted to have lead levels that pose a risk to bat health. For copper, this value was 2.8%, for cadmium it was 0.6% and for zinc 0.5%. Further work is therefore warranted to explore the impacts of soil-associated metals on bat populations in the UK. - Highlights: ► A modeling framework is presented to estimate risks of contaminants to wildlife. ► The model has been applied to soil metal contamination and bat species. ► Results indicate that lead and copper pose the greatest risk to bat health. ► A risk is predicted for up to 6% of areas where bats reside in England and Wales. - Application of a novel, spatially explicit risk assessment framework indicates that the health of insectivorous bat species in some regions of the UK may be at threat from exposure to soil associated metals.

  18. State of the art of contaminated site management in The Netherlands: Policy framework and risk assessment tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartjes, F.A.; Rutgers, M.; Lijzen, J.P.A.; Janssen, P.J.C.M.; Otte, P.F.; Wintersen, A.; Brand, E.; Posthuma, L.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the policy framework of contaminated site management in The Netherlands and the corresponding risk assessment tools, including innovations that have taken place since an overview was published in 1999. According to the Dutch Soil Protection Act assessment framework, soils are subdivided into three quality classes: clean, slightly contaminated and seriously contaminated. Historic cases of slightly contaminated soils are managed in a sustainable way by re-use of soil material within a region on the basis of risk-based and land use specific Maximal Values and Background Values. In case of serious soil contamination remediation is in principle necessary and the urgency of remediation has to be determined based on site-specific risks for human health, the ecosystem and groundwater. The major risk assessment tools in The Netherlands are the CSOIL exposure model (human health risks and food safety), Species Sensitivity Distributions and the Soil Quality Triad (ecological risks), along with a procedure to assess the risks due to contaminant spreading to and in the groundwater. Following the principle ‘simple if possible, complex when necessary’, tiered approaches are used. Contaminated site practices are supported with web-based decision support systems. - Highlights: ► The Dutch Soil Protection Act distinguishes three quality classes: clean, slightly contaminated and seriously contaminated. ► Serious soil contamination in principle compels remediation and the determination of the urgency of remediation. ► The relevant protection targets in The Netherlands are human health, ecosystems, groundwater and food safety. ► Important risk assessment tools are the CSOIL and VOLASOIL exposure models, SSDs and the TRIAD approach. ► Under the principle ‘simple when possible, complex when necessary’ tiered approaches are used.

  19. An automatic framework for assessing breast cancer risk due to various hormone replacement therapies (HRT)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karemore, Gopal; Brandt, Sami; Nielsen, Mads

    It is well known that menopausal hormone therapy increases mammographic density. Increase in breast density may relate to breast cancer risk. Several computer assisted automatic methods for assessing mammographic density have been suggested by J.W. Byng (1996), N. Karssemeijer (1998), J.M. Boone(...

  20. A Framework for Linking Population Model Development with Ecological Risk Assessment Objectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The value of models that link organism‐level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERAs) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism&#...

  1. An Automatic Framework for Assessing Breast Cancer Risk Due to Various Hormone Replacement Therapies (HRT)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karemore, Gopal Raghunath; Brandt, Sami; Nielsen, Mads

    Background: It is well known that Menopausal Hormone therapy increases mammographic density. Increase in breast density may relate to breast cancer risk. Several computer assisted automatic methods for assessing mammographic density have been suggested by J.W. Byng (1996), N. Karssemeijer (1998),...

  2. Mode of Action Frameworks in Toxicity Testing and Chemical Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meek, B.

    2009-01-01

    Recently, legislative mandates worldwide are requiring systematic consideration of much larger numbers of chemicals. This necessitates more efficient and effective toxicity testing, as a basis to be more predictive in a risk assessment context. This in turn requires much more emphasis early in the

  3. A framework for assessing global change risks to forest carbon stocks in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Karin L. Riley; Christopher M. Oswalt; Susan J. Crocker; Gary W. Yohe

    2013-01-01

    Among terrestrial environments, forests are not only the largest long-term sink of atmospheric carbon (C), but are also susceptible to global change themselves, with potential consequences including alterations of C cycles and potential C emission. To inform global change risk assessment of forest C across large spatial/temporal scales, this study constructed and...

  4. Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2016-01-01

    Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

  5. Integrated frameworks for assessing and managing health risks in the context of managed aquifer recharge with river water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assmuth, Timo; Simola, Antti; Pitkänen, Tarja; Lyytimäki, Jari; Huttula, Timo

    2016-01-01

    Integrated assessment and management of water resources for the supply of potable water is increasingly important in light of projected water scarcity in many parts of the world. This article develops frameworks for regional-level waterborne human health risk assessment of chemical and microbiological contamination to aid water management, incorporating economic aspects of health risks. Managed aquifer recharge with surface water from a river in Southern Finland is used as an illustrative case. With a starting point in watershed governance, stakeholder concerns, and value-at-risk concepts, we merge common methods for integrative health risk analysis of contaminants to describe risks and impacts dynamically and broadly. This involves structuring analyses along the risk chain: sources-releases-environmental transport and fate-exposures-health effects-socio-economic impacts-management responses. Risks attributed to contaminants are embedded in other risks, such as contaminants from other sources, and related to benefits from improved water quality. A set of models along this risk chain in the case is presented. Fundamental issues in the assessment are identified, including 1) framing of risks, scenarios, and choices; 2) interaction of models and empirical information; 3) time dimension; 4) distributions of risks and benefits; and 5) uncertainties about risks and controls. We find that all these combine objective and subjective aspects, and involve value judgments and policy choices. We conclude with proposals for overcoming conceptual and functional divides and lock-ins to improve modeling, assessment, and management of complex water supply schemes, especially by reflective solution-oriented interdisciplinary and multi-actor deliberation. © 2015 SETAC.

  6. Developing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Storage CO2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duncan, Ian [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    2014-08-31

    The operational risks for CCS projects include: risks of capturing, compressing, transporting and injecting CO₂; risks of well blowouts; risk that CO2 will leak into shallow aquifers and contaminate potable water; and risk that sequestered CO2 will leak into the atmosphere. This report examines these risks by using information on the risks associated with analogue activities such as CO2 based enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR), natural gas storage and acid gas disposal. We have developed a new analysis of pipeline risk based on Bayesian statistical analysis. Bayesian theory probabilities may describe states of partial knowledge, even perhaps those related to non-repeatable events. The Bayesian approach enables both utilizing existing data and at the same time having the capability to adsorb new information thus to lower uncertainty in our understanding of complex systems. Incident rates for both natural gas and CO2 pipelines have been widely used in papers and reports on risk of CO2 pipelines as proxies for the individual risk created by such pipelines. Published risk studies of CO2 pipelines suggest that the individual risk associated with CO2 pipelines is between 10-3 and 10-4, which reflects risk levels approaching those of mountain climbing, which many would find unacceptably high. This report concludes, based on a careful analysis of natural gas pipeline failures, suggests that the individual risk of CO2 pipelines is likely in the range of 10-6 to 10-7, a risk range considered in the acceptable to negligible range in most countries. If, as is commonly thought, pipelines represent the highest risk component of CCS outside of the capture plant, then this conclusion suggests that most (if not all) previous quantitative- risk assessments of components of CCS may be orders of magnitude to high. The potential lethality of unexpected CO2 releases

  7. Development of a conceptual framework of holistic risk assessment - Landfill as a particular type of contaminated land.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butt, T E; Javadi, A A; Nunns, M A; Beal, C D

    2016-11-01

    Landfills can be regarded as a particular type of contaminated land that has a potential to directly and indirectly pollute all of the four main spheres of the environment which are the lithosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and eventually adversely impact the biosphere. Therefore, environmental risk assessment of a landfill has to be more integrated and holistic by virtue of its nature of being a multidimensional pollutant source. Despite this, although various risk assessment approaches have been adopted for landfill waste disposal sites, there are still wide-ranging knowledge gaps and limitations which need to be addressed. One important knowledge gap and limitation of current risk assessment approaches is the inability to fully identify, categorise and aggregate all individual risks from all combinations of hazards, pathways and targets/receptors (e.g. water, air, soil and biota) in connection to a certain landfill leachate and yet at any stage of the landfill cycle. So such an approach is required that could not only integrate all possible characteristics of varying scenarios but also contain the ability to establish an overall risk picture, irrespective of the lifecycle stage of the landfill (e.g. planning stage/pre-operation, in-operation or post-operation/closed). One such approach to address the wide-breadth of landfill impact risks is by developing a more holistic risk assessment methodology, whose conceptual framework is presented in this paper for landfill leachate in a whole-system format. This conceptual framework does not only draw together various constituting factors and sub-factors of risk assessment in a logical sequence and categorical order, but also indicates the "what, why, when and how" outputs of and inputs to these factors and sub-factors can be useful. The framework is designed to identify and quantify a range of risks associated with all stages of the landfill lifecycle, and yet in a more streamlined, logical, categorical and integrated

  8. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I. [Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering of NNRU MEPhI (Russian Federation); Studgorodok 1, Obninsk, Kaluga region, 249030 (Russian Federation)

    2013-07-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk.

  9. Approach to proliferation risk assessment based on multiple objective analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andrianov, A.; Kuptsov, I.

    2013-01-01

    The approach to the assessment of proliferation risk using the methods of multi-criteria decision making and multi-objective optimization is presented. The approach allows the taking into account of the specifics features of the national nuclear infrastructure, and possible proliferation strategies (motivations, intentions, and capabilities). 3 examples of applying the approach are shown. First, the approach has been used to evaluate the attractiveness of HEU (high enriched uranium)production scenarios at a clandestine enrichment facility using centrifuge enrichment technology. Secondly, the approach has been applied to assess the attractiveness of scenarios for undeclared production of plutonium or HEU by theft of materials circulating in nuclear fuel cycle facilities and thermal reactors. Thirdly, the approach has been used to perform a comparative analysis of the structures of developing nuclear power systems based on different types of nuclear fuel cycles, the analysis being based on indicators of proliferation risk

  10. Structured Frameworks to Increase the Transparency of the Assessment of Benefits and Risks of Medicines : Current Status and Possible Future Directions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pignatti, F.; Ashby, D.; Brass, E. P.; Eichler, H-G; Frey, P.; Hillege, H. L.; Hori, A.; Levitan, B.; Liberti, L.; Loefstedt, R. E.; McAuslane, N.; Micaleff, A.; Noel, R. A.; Postmus, D.; Renn, O.; Sabourin, B. J.; Salmonson, T.; Walker, S.

    2015-01-01

    Structured frameworks for benefit-risk analysis in drug licensing decisions are being implemented across a number of regulatory agencies worldwide. The aim of these frameworks is to aid the analysis and communication of the benefit-risk assessment throughout the development, evaluation, and

  11. Integrated framework for the external cost assessment of nuclear power plant accident considering risk aversion: The Korean case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    Recently, the estimation of accident costs within the social costs of nuclear power plants (NPPs) has garnered substantial interest. In particular, the risk aversion behavior of the public toward an NPP accident is considered an important factor when integrating risk aversion into NPP accident cost. In this study, an integrated framework for the external cost assessment of NPP accident that measures the value of statistical life (VSL) and the relative risk aversion (RRA) coefficient for NPP accident based on an individual-level survey is proposed. To derive the willingness to pay and the RRA coefficient for NPP accident risks, a survey was conducted on a sample of 1550 individuals in Korea. The estimation obtained a mean VSL of USD 2.78 million and an RRA coefficient of 1.315. Based on the estimation results in which various cost factors were considered, a multiplication factor of 5.16 and an external cost of NPP accidents of 4.39E−03 USD-cents/kW h were estimated. This study is expected to provide insight to energy policy decision-makers on analyzing the economic validity of NPP compared to other energy sources by reflecting the estimated external cost of NPP accident into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. - Highlights: •External cost assessment framework for NPP is proposed considering risk aversion. •VSL was derived from WTP for mortality risk reduction from hypothetical NPP accident. •RRA was derived to integrate public risk aversion into external cost of NPP accident. •Individual-level survey was conducted to derive WTP and RRA for NPP accident risk. •The external cost was estimated considering the direct cost factors of NPP accident.

  12. A framework for ecological risk assessment of metal mixtures in aquatic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nys, Charlotte; Van Regenmortel, Tina; Janssen, Colin R; Oorts, Koen; Smolders, Erik; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C

    2018-03-01

    Although metal mixture toxicity has been studied relatively intensely, there is no general consensus yet on how to incorporate metal mixture toxicity into aquatic risk assessment. We combined existing data on chronic metal mixture toxicity at the species level with species sensitivity distribution (SSD)-based in silico metal mixture risk predictions at the community level for mixtures of Ni, Zn, Cu, Cd, and Pb, to develop a tiered risk assessment scheme for metal mixtures in freshwater. Generally, independent action (IA) predicts chronic metal mixture toxicity at the species level most accurately, whereas concentration addition (CA) is the most conservative model. Mixture effects are noninteractive in 69% (IA) and 44% (CA) and antagonistic in 15% (IA) and 51% (CA) of the experiments, whereas synergisms are only observed in 15% (IA) and 5% (CA) of the experiments. At low effect sizes (∼ 10% mixture effect), CA overestimates metal mixture toxicity at the species level by 1.2-fold (i.e., the mixture interaction factor [MIF]; median). Species, metal presence, or number of metals does not significantly affect the MIF. To predict metal mixture risk at the community level, bioavailability-normalization procedures were combined with CA or IA using SSD techniques in 4 different methods, which were compared using environmental monitoring data of a European river basin (the Dommel, The Netherlands). We found that the simplest method, in which CA is directly applied to the SSD (CA SSD ), is also the most conservative method. The CA SSD has median margins of safety (MoS) of 1.1 and 1.2 respectively for binary mixtures compared with the theoretically more consistent methods of applying CA or IA to the dose-response curve of each species individually prior to estimating the fraction of affected species (CA DRC or IA DRC ). The MoS increases linearly with an increasing number of metals, up to 1.4 and 1.7 for quinary mixtures (median) compared with CA DRC and IA DRC

  13. A Framework for Spatial Risk Assessments: Potential Impacts of Nonindigenous Invasive Species on Native Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig R. Allen

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Many populations of wild animals and plants are declining and face increasing threats from habitat fragmentation and loss as well as exposure to stressors ranging from toxicants to diseases to invasive nonindigenous species. We describe and demonstrate a spatially explicit ecological risk assessment that allows for the incorporation of a broad array of information that may influence the distribution of an invasive species, toxicants, or other stressors, and the incorporation of landscape variables that may influence the spread of a species or substances. The first step in our analyses is to develop species models and quantify spatial overlap between stressor and target organisms. Risk is assessed as the product of spatial overlap and a hazard index based on target species vulnerabilities to the stressor of interest. We illustrate our methods with an example in which the stressor is the ecologically destructive nonindigenous ant, Solenopsis invicta, and the targets are two declining vertebrate species in the state of South Carolina, USA. A risk approach that focuses on landscapes and that is explicitly spatial is of particular relevance as remaining undeveloped lands become increasingly uncommon and isolated and more important in the management and recovery of species and ecological systems. Effective ecosystem management includes the control of multiple stressors, including invasive species with large impacts, understanding where those impacts may be the most severe, and implementing management strategies to reduce impacts.

  14. A quantitative evaluation of a qualitative risk assessment framework: Examining the assumptions and predictions of the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Qualitative risk assessment frameworks, such as the Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA), have been developed to rapidly evaluate the risks of fishing to marine populations and prioritize management and research among species. Despite being applied to over 1,000 fish populations, and an ongoing debate about the most appropriate method to convert biological and fishery characteristics into an overall measure of risk, the assumptions and predictive capacity of these approaches have not been evaluated. Several interpretations of the PSA were mapped to a conventional age-structured fisheries dynamics model to evaluate the performance of the approach under a range of assumptions regarding exploitation rates and measures of biological risk. The results demonstrate that the underlying assumptions of these qualitative risk-based approaches are inappropriate, and the expected performance is poor for a wide range of conditions. The information required to score a fishery using a PSA-type approach is comparable to that required to populate an operating model and evaluating the population dynamics within a simulation framework. In addition to providing a more credible characterization of complex system dynamics, the operating model approach is transparent, reproducible and can evaluate alternative management strategies over a range of plausible hypotheses for the system. PMID:29856869

  15. Host cell proteins in biotechnology-derived products: A risk assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Zafra, Christina L Zuch; Quarmby, Valerie; Francissen, Kathleen; Vanderlaan, Martin; Zhu-Shimoni, Judith

    2015-11-01

    To manufacture biotechnology products, mammalian or bacterial cells are engineered for the production of recombinant therapeutic human proteins including monoclonal antibodies. Host cells synthesize an entire repertoire of proteins which are essential for their own function and survival. Biotechnology manufacturing processes are designed to produce recombinant therapeutics with a very high degree of purity. While there is typically a low residual level of host cell protein in the final drug product, under some circumstances a host cell protein(s) may copurify with the therapeutic protein and, if it is not detected and removed, it may become an unintended component of the final product. The purpose of this article is to enumerate and discuss factors to be considered in an assessment of risk of residual host cell protein(s) detected and identified in the drug product. The consideration of these factors and their relative ranking will lead to an overall risk assessment that informs decision-making around how to control the levels of host cell proteins. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. A global view on ARAMIS, a risk assessment methodology for industries in the framework of the SEVESO II directive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salvi, Olivier; Debray, Bruno

    2006-01-01

    The ARAMIS methodology was developed in an European project co-funded in the fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission with the objective to answer the specific requirements of the SEVESO II directive. It offers an alternative to purely deterministic and probabilistic approaches to risk assessment of process plants. It also answers the needs of the various stakeholders interested by the results of the risk assessment for land use or emergency planning, enforcement or, more generally, public decision-making. The methodology is divided into the following major steps: identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), identification of the safety barriers and assessment of their performances, evaluation of safety management efficiency to barrier reliability, identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS), assessment and mapping of the risk severity of reference scenarios and of the vulnerability of the plant surroundings. The methodology was tested during five case studies, which provided useful information about the applicability of the method and, by identifying the most sensitive parts of it opened way to new research activity for an improved industrial safety

  17. A case study to illustrate the utility of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway and Adverse Outcome Pathway frameworks for integrating human health and ecological data into cumulative risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods, which evaluate the risk of multiple adverse outcomes (AOs) from multiple chemicals, promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to integrate risk from relevant stressors. The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework can inform these r...

  18. Development of a conceptual framework of holistic risk assessment — Landfill as a particular type of contaminated land

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butt, T.E., E-mail: t.e.butt@outlook.com [School of Architecture, Built & Natural Environments (SABNE), Faculty of Architecture, Computing & Engineering (FACE), Swansea Metropolitan, University of Wales Trinity Saint David - UWTSD, Mount Pleasant Campus, Swansea, SA1 6ED, Wales (United Kingdom); Javadi, A.A. [Department of Engineering, College of Engineering, Mathematics & Physical Sciences (CEMPS), University of Exeter, Harrison Building, North Park Road, Exeter, EX4 4QF, England (United Kingdom); Nunns, M.A. [Environment Agency, Bromholme Lane, Brampton, Huntingdon, PE28 4NE, England (United Kingdom); Beal, C.D. [Smart Water Research Centre (SWRC) and School of Engineering, Griffith University, Southport, Queensland 4222 (Australia)

    2016-11-01

    Landfills can be regarded as a particular type of contaminated land that has a potential to directly and indirectly pollute all of the four main spheres of the environment which are the lithosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and eventually adversely impact the biosphere. Therefore, environmental risk assessment of a landfill has to be more integrated and holistic by virtue of its nature of being a multidimensional pollutant source. Despite this, although various risk assessment approaches have been adopted for landfill waste disposal sites, there are still wide-ranging knowledge gaps and limitations which need to be addressed. One important knowledge gap and limitation of current risk assessment approaches is the inability to fully identify, categorise and aggregate all individual risks from all combinations of hazards, pathways and targets/receptors (e.g. water, air, soil and biota) in connection to a certain landfill leachate and yet at any stage of the landfill cycle. So such an approach is required that could not only integrate all possible characteristics of varying scenarios but also contain the ability to establish an overall risk picture, irrespective of the lifecycle stage of the landfill (e.g. planning stage/pre-operation, in-operation or post-operation/closed). One such approach to address the wide-breadth of landfill impact risks is by developing a more holistic risk assessment methodology, whose conceptual framework is presented in this paper for landfill leachate in a whole-system format. This conceptual framework does not only draw together various constituting factors and sub-factors of risk assessment in a logical sequence and categorical order, but also indicates the “what, why, when and how” outputs of and inputs to these factors and sub-factors can be useful. The framework is designed to identify and quantify a range of risks associated with all stages of the landfill lifecycle, and yet in a more streamlined, logical, categorical and

  19. Development of a conceptual framework of holistic risk assessment — Landfill as a particular type of contaminated land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butt, T.E.; Javadi, A.A.; Nunns, M.A.; Beal, C.D.

    2016-01-01

    Landfills can be regarded as a particular type of contaminated land that has a potential to directly and indirectly pollute all of the four main spheres of the environment which are the lithosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere and eventually adversely impact the biosphere. Therefore, environmental risk assessment of a landfill has to be more integrated and holistic by virtue of its nature of being a multidimensional pollutant source. Despite this, although various risk assessment approaches have been adopted for landfill waste disposal sites, there are still wide-ranging knowledge gaps and limitations which need to be addressed. One important knowledge gap and limitation of current risk assessment approaches is the inability to fully identify, categorise and aggregate all individual risks from all combinations of hazards, pathways and targets/receptors (e.g. water, air, soil and biota) in connection to a certain landfill leachate and yet at any stage of the landfill cycle. So such an approach is required that could not only integrate all possible characteristics of varying scenarios but also contain the ability to establish an overall risk picture, irrespective of the lifecycle stage of the landfill (e.g. planning stage/pre-operation, in-operation or post-operation/closed). One such approach to address the wide-breadth of landfill impact risks is by developing a more holistic risk assessment methodology, whose conceptual framework is presented in this paper for landfill leachate in a whole-system format. This conceptual framework does not only draw together various constituting factors and sub-factors of risk assessment in a logical sequence and categorical order, but also indicates the “what, why, when and how” outputs of and inputs to these factors and sub-factors can be useful. The framework is designed to identify and quantify a range of risks associated with all stages of the landfill lifecycle, and yet in a more streamlined, logical, categorical and

  20. Development of a construct-based risk assessment framework for genetic engineered crops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beker, M P; Boari, P; Burachik, M; Cuadrado, V; Junco, M; Lede, S; Lema, M A; Lewi, D; Maggi, A; Meoniz, I; Noé, G; Roca, C; Robredo, C; Rubinstein, C; Vicien, C; Whelan, A

    2016-10-01

    Experience gained in the risk assessment (RA) of genetically engineered (GE) crops since their first experimental introductions in the early nineties, has increased the level of familiarity with these breeding methodologies and has motivated several agencies and expert groups worldwide to revisit the scientific criteria underlying the RA process. Along these lines, the need to engage in a scientific discussion for the case of GE crops transformed with similar constructs was recently identified in Argentina. In response to this need, the Argentine branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI Argentina) convened a tripartite working group to discuss a science-based evaluation approach for transformation events developed with genetic constructs which are identical or similar to those used in previously evaluated or approved GE crops. This discussion considered new transformation events within the same or different species and covered both environmental and food safety aspects. A construct similarity concept was defined, considering the biological function of the introduced genes. Factors like environmental and dietary exposure, familiarity with both the crop and the trait as well as the crop biology, were identified as key to inform a construct-based RA process.

  1. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy: Report from a workshop ''developing a framework for assessing the risk from allergenic foods"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madsen, C.B.; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.; Gendel, S.M.; Houben, G.F.; Hourihane, J.OB.; Mackie, A.; Mills, E.N.C.; Nørhede, P.; Taylor, S.L.; Crevel, R.W.R.

    2009-01-01

    A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods, to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move

  2. Assessing the effects of Climate Change on Urban Pluvial Flooding to provide a Risk Management Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rianna, G.; Mercogliano, P.

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization increases the flood risk because of heightened vulnerability, stemming from population concentration and hazard due to soil sealing affecting the largest part of urban settlements and reducing the concentration time of interested basins. Furthermore, current and future hazards are exacerbated by expected increases in extreme rainfall events due to Climate Changes (CC) making inadequate urban drainage infrastructures designed under the assumption of steady conditions. In this work, we present a modeling chain/algorithm to assess potential increase in pluvial flood hazard able to take into account CC forcing. The adopted simulation chain reckon on three main elements: Regional Climate Model, COSMO_CLM, dynamically downscaling GCM CMCC_CM (Scoccimarro et al., 2011) and optimized, at high resolution (about 8km), by Bucchignani et al. (2015) on Italy provide projections about precipitation up to 2100 under two concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Such projections are used in Equidistance Quantile Mapping (EQM) approach, developed by Srivastav et al. (2014) to estimate expected variations in IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curves calculated through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) approach on the basis of available rainfall data. To this aim, 1971-2000 observations are used as reference. Finally, a 1-D/2-D coupled urban drainage/flooding model forced by IDF (current and projected) is used to simulate storm-sewer surcharge and surface inundation to establish the variations in urban flooding risk. As test case is considered the city center of Naples (Southern Italy). In this respective, the sewage and urban drainage network is highly complex due to the historical and subsequent transformations of the city. Under such constraints, the reliability of the results maybe deeply conditioned by uncertainties not undermining the illustrative purposes of the work. Briefly, EQM returns a remarkable increase in extreme precipitations; such increase is driven by

  3. Establishing International Branch Campuses: A Framework for Assessing Opportunities and Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkins, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    At the start of 2016, there were 230 international branch campuses operating worldwide, but of the campuses that were established since the mid-1990s, around 10 per cent have failed. The purpose of this article is to propose a framework that the strategic decision makers in higher education institutions can refer to when evaluating opportunities…

  4. A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

    OpenAIRE

    Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

    2009-01-01

    The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommend...

  5. mHealth and Mobile Medical Apps: A Framework to Assess Risk and Promote Safer Use

    OpenAIRE

    Lewis, Thomas Lorchan; Wyatt, Jeremy C

    2014-01-01

    The use of mobile medical apps by clinicians and others has grown considerably since the introduction of mobile phones. Medical apps offer clinicians the ability to access medical knowledge and patient data at the point of care, but several studies have highlighted apps that could compromise patient safety and are potentially dangerous. This article identifies a range of different kinds of risks that medical apps can contribute to and important contextual variables that can modify these risks...

  6. A model-based risk management framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjoern Axel; Fredriksen, Rune

    2002-08-15

    The ongoing research activity addresses these issues through two co-operative activities. The first is the IST funded research project CORAS, where Institutt for energiteknikk takes part as responsible for the work package for Risk Analysis. The main objective of the CORAS project is to develop a framework to support risk assessment of security critical systems. The second, called the Halden Open Dependability Demonstrator (HODD), is established in cooperation between Oestfold University College, local companies and HRP. The objective of HODD is to provide an open-source test bed for testing, teaching and learning about risk analysis methods, risk analysis tools, and fault tolerance techniques. The Inverted Pendulum Control System (IPCON), which main task is to keep a pendulum balanced and controlled, is the first system that has been established. In order to make risk assessment one need to know what a system does, or is intended to do. Furthermore, the risk assessment requires correct descriptions of the system, its context and all relevant features. A basic assumption is that a precise model of this knowledge, based on formal or semi-formal descriptions, such as UML, will facilitate a systematic risk assessment. It is also necessary to have a framework to integrate the different risk assessment methods. The experiences so far support this hypothesis. This report presents CORAS and the CORAS model-based risk management framework, including a preliminary guideline for model-based risk assessment. The CORAS framework for model-based risk analysis offers a structured and systematic approach to identify and assess security issues of ICT systems. From the initial assessment of IPCON, we also believe that the framework is applicable in a safety context. Further work on IPCON, as well as the experiences from the CORAS trials, will provide insight and feedback for further improvements. (Author)

  7. Ecotoxicological risk assessment of hospital wastewater: a proposed framework for raw effluents discharging into urban sewer network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emmanuel, E.; Perrodin, Y.; Keck, G.; Blanchard, J.-M.; Vermande, P.

    2005-01-01

    In hospitals a large variety of substances are in use for medical purposes such as diagnostics and research. After application, diagnostic agents, disinfectants and excreted non-metabolized pharmaceuticals by patients, reach the wastewater. This form of elimination may generate risks for aquatic organisms. The aim of this study was to present: (i) the steps of an ecological risk assessment and management framework related to hospital effluents evacuating into wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) without preliminary treatment; and (ii) the results of its application on wastewater from an infectious and tropical diseases department of a hospital of a large city in southeastern France. The characterization of effects has been made under two assumptions, which were related to: (a) the effects of hospital wastewater on biological treatment process of WWTP, particularly on the community of organisms in charge of the biological decomposition of the organic matter; (b) the effects on aquatic organisms. COD and BOD 5 have been measured for studying global organic pollution. Assessment of halogenated organic compounds was made using halogenated organic compounds absorbable on activated carbon (AOX) concentrations. Heavy metals (arsenic, cadmium, chrome, copper, mercury, nickel, lead and zinc) were measured. Low most probable number (MPP) for faecal coliforms has been considered as an indirect detection of antibiotics and disinfectants presence. For toxicity assessment, bioluminescence assay using Vibrio fischeri photobacteria, 72-h EC 50 algae growth Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata and 24-h EC 50 on Daphnia magna were used. The scenario allows to a semi-quantitative risk characterization. It needs to be improved on some aspects, particularly those linked to: long term toxicity assessment on target organisms (bioaccumulation of pollutants, genotoxicity, etc.); ecotoxicological interactions between pharmaceuticals, disinfectants used both in diagnostics and in cleaning of

  8. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  9. Land Cover as a Framework For Assessing the Risk of Water Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    James D. Wickham; Kurt H. Riitters; Robert V. O' Neill; Kenneth H. Reckhow; Timothy G. Wade; K. Bruce Jones

    2000-01-01

    A survey of numerous field studies shows that nitrogen and phosphorous export coefficients are significantly different across forest, agriculture, and urban land-cover types. We used simulations to estimate the land-cover composition at which there was a significant risk of nutrient loads representative of watersheds without forest cover. The results suggest that at...

  10. A Framework for Assessment of Intentional Fires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iraj Mohammadfam

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Background & Objectives : It is not possible to live without using fire. However, fire could destruct human properties in a short time. One of the most important types of fire is intentional fire. This type of fire has become a great problem for insurance companies, fire departments, industries, government and business in the recent years. This study aimed to provide a framework for risk assessment of intentional fires . Methods: In the present study, risk assessment and management model for protecting critical properties and security vulnerability assessment model were used to develop a comprehensive framework for risk assessment of intentional fires. The framework was examined in an automotive industry . Results : The designed framework contained five steps as 1 asset inventory and prioritizing them according to their importance, 2 invasion assessment, 3 vulnerability assessment, 4 risk assessment and design and 5 implementation and evaluating the effectiveness of corrective/preventive actions. Thirty different scenarios for intentional fires were identified by implementing the designed framework in an automotive company, and then the associated risk of each scenario was quantitatively determined. Conclusion : Compared to seven models, the proposed framework represents its comprehension. Development of safety and security standards and a central security information bank to reduce security risks, including the risk of intentional fires is recommended .

  11. An Integrated Modelling Framework to Assess Flood Risk under Urban Development and Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    that combines a model for the socio-economic development of cities (DANCE4WATER) with an urban flood model. The urban flood model is a 1D-2D spatially distributed hydrologic and hydraulic model that, for a given urban layout, simulates flow in the sewer system and the surface flow in the catchment (MIKE FLOOD......). The socio-economic model computes urban layouts that are transferred to the hydraulic model in the form of changes of impervious area and potential flow paths on the surface. Estimates of flood prone areas, as well as the expected annual damage due to flooding, are returned to the socio-economic model...... as an input for further refinement of the scenarios for the urban development. Our results in an Australian case study suggest that urban development is a major driver for flood risk and vice versa that flood risk can be significantly reduced if it is accounted for in the development of the cities...

  12. A Framework to Expand and Advance Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Support Small Modular Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curtis Smith; David Schwieder; Robert Nourgaliev; Cherie Phelan; Diego Mandelli; Kellie Kvarfordt; Robert Youngblood

    2012-09-01

    During the early development of nuclear power plants, researchers and engineers focused on many aspects of plant operation, two of which were getting the newly-found technology to work and minimizing the likelihood of perceived accidents through redundancy and diversity. As time, and our experience, has progressed, the realization of plant operational risk/reliability has entered into the design, operation, and regulation of these plants. But, to date, we have only dabbled at the surface of risk and reliability technologies. For the next generation of small modular reactors (SMRs), it is imperative that these technologies evolve into an accepted, encompassing, validated, and integral part of the plant in order to reduce costs and to demonstrate safe operation. Further, while it is presumed that safety margins are substantial for proposed SMR designs, the depiction and demonstration of these margins needs to be better understood in order to optimize the licensing process.

  13. Strategic Assessment of Risk and Risk Tolerance (StARRT) framework for return-to-play decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrier, Ian

    2015-10-01

    The sport medicine clinician is faced with return-to-play (RTP) decisions for every patient who wants to return to activity. The complex interaction of factors related to history, physical examination, testing, activity and baseline characteristics can make RTP decision-making challenging. Further, when reasoning is not explicit, unnecessary conflict can arise among clinicians themselves, or among clinicians and patients. This conflict can have negative health consequences for the patient. In 2010, a transparent framework for RTP decisions was proposed. However, some have identified limitations to the framework and found difficulties in its implementation. This paper presents a revised framework that addresses the limitations, and provides concrete examples of how to apply it in simple and complex cases. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  14. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  15. Development of an ecological risk assessment framework based on contaminant availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menzie, C.; Linz, D.G.; Nakles, D.V.

    1995-01-01

    The Gas Research Institute (GRI) of Chicago, Illinois, recently completed the first phase of a research program to develop a methodology to determine environmentally acceptable endpoints or EAEs in soil. The results of this effort are being published by the American Academy of Environmental Engineers in a text, Environmentally Acceptable Endpoints in Soil: A Risk-Based Approach to Contaminated Site Management Based on Availability of Chemicals in Soil. This presentation will review the key technical findings of this first phase of research with an emphasis on the sequestration and bioavailability of organic compounds in soil and the effect of treatment on contaminant availability, mobility, and toxicity. A strawman protocol for the tiered evaluation of the ecological risk of a contaminated site based upon contaminant availability will also be examined. The use, refinement, and possible replacement of this protocol with alternative approaches is currently being discussed with a consortia of government, academia, and industrial representatives in the states of Washington and Texas and in the New England region. The results of these discussions will be presented and the critical technical and regulatory issues that have been identified by these consortia will be summarized. Possible alternative approaches to resolve the more significant issues will also be suggested

  16. A framework for risk assessment for maritime transportation systems—A case study for open sea collisions involving RoPax vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montewka, Jakub; Ehlers, Sören; Goerlandt, Floris; Hinz, Tomasz; Tabri, Kristjan; Kujala, Pentti

    2014-01-01

    Maritime accidents involving ships carrying passengers may pose a high risk with respect to human casualties. For effective risk mitigation, an insight into the process of risk escalation is needed. This requires a proactive approach when it comes to risk modelling for maritime transportation systems. Most of the existing models are based on historical data on maritime accidents, and thus they can be considered reactive instead of proactive. This paper introduces a systematic, transferable and proactive framework estimating the risk for maritime transportation systems, meeting the requirements stemming from the adopted formal definition of risk. The framework focuses on ship–ship collisions in the open sea, with a RoRo/Passenger ship (RoPax) being considered as the struck ship. First, it covers an identification of the events that follow a collision between two ships in the open sea, and, second, it evaluates the probabilities of these events, concluding by determining the severity of a collision. The risk framework is developed with the use of Bayesian Belief Networks and utilizes a set of analytical methods for the estimation of the risk model parameters. Finally, a case study is presented, in which the risk framework developed here is applied to a maritime transportation system operating in the Gulf of Finland (GoF). The results obtained are compared to the historical data and available models, in which a RoPax was involved in a collision, and good agreement with the available records is found. - Highlights: • A framework for risk analysis and assessment in maritime transportation systems following the formal requirements adopted is presented here. • A Bayesian Belief Network is used, allowing instantaneous propagation of knowledge through the framework. • The uncertainties of the input variables are quantified. • A contribution to a holistic risk model for a selected maritime activity is made. • A set of analytical methods is used to estimate risk

  17. Social amplification of risk: a conceptual framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasperson, R.E.; Renn, O.; Slovic, P.; Brown, H.S.; Emel, J.; Goble, R.; Kasperson, J.X.; Ratick, S.

    1988-01-01

    One of the most perplexing problems in risk analysis is why some relatively minor risks or risk events, as assessed by technical experts, often elicit strong public concerns and result in substantial impacts upon society and economy. This article sets forth a conceptual framework that seeks to link systematically the technical assessment of risk with psychological, sociological, and cultural perspectives of risk perception and risk-related behavior. The main thesis is that hazards interact with psychological, social, institutional, and cultural processes in ways that may amplify or attenuate public responses to the risk or risk event. A structural description of the social amplification of risk is now possible. Amplification occurs at two stages: in the transfer of information about the risk, and in the response mechanisms of society. Signals about risk are processed by individual and social amplification stations, including the scientist who communicates the risk assessment, the news media, cultural groups, interpersonal networks, and others. Key steps of amplifications can be identified at each stage. The amplified risk leads to behavioral responses, which, in turn, result in secondary impacts. Models are presented that portray the elements and linkages in the proposed conceptual framework

  18. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  19. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  20. Combination of qualitative and quantitative sources of knowledge for risk assessment in the framework of possibility theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oussalah, M.; Newby, M.J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper focuses on a representation of system reliability in the framework of possibility theory. Particularly, given a (probabilistic) quantitative knowledge pertaining to the time to failure of a system (risk function) and some qualitative knowledge about the degree of pessimism and optimism of

  1. Risk assessment of agricultural water requirement based on a multi-model ensemble framework, southwest of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamani, Reza; Akhond-Ali, Ali-Mohammad; Roozbahani, Abbas; Fattahi, Rouhollah

    2017-08-01

    Water shortage and climate change are the most important issues of sustainable agricultural and water resources development. Given the importance of water availability in crop production, the present study focused on risk assessment of climate change impact on agricultural water requirement in southwest of Iran, under two emission scenarios (A2 and B1) for the future period (2025-2054). A multi-model ensemble framework based on mean observed temperature-precipitation (MOTP) method and a combined probabilistic approach Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and change factor (CF) have been used for downscaling to manage the uncertainty of outputs of 14 general circulation models (GCMs). The results showed an increasing temperature in all months and irregular changes of precipitation (either increasing or decreasing) in the future period. In addition, the results of the calculated annual net water requirement for all crops affected by climate change indicated an increase between 4 and 10 %. Furthermore, an increasing process is also expected regarding to the required water demand volume. The most and the least expected increase in the water demand volume is about 13 and 5 % for A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Considering the results and the limited water resources in the study area, it is crucial to provide water resources planning in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change. Therefore, the adaptation scenarios with the climate change related to crop pattern and water consumption should be taken into account.

  2. DEFENSE PROGRAMS RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin PREDA

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available For the past years defense programs have faced delays in delivering defense capabilities and budget overruns. Stakeholders are looking for ways to improve program management and the decision making process given the very fluid and uncertain economic and political environment. Consequently, they have increasingly resorted to risk management as the main management tool for achieving defense programs objectives and for delivering the defense capabilities strongly needed for the soldiers on the ground on time and within limited defense budgets. Following a risk management based decision-making approach the stakeholders are expected not only to protect program objectives against a wide range of risks but, at the same time, to take advantage of the opportunities to increase the likelihood of program success. The prerequisite for making risk management the main tool for achieving defense programs objectives is the design and implementation of a strong risk management framework as a foundation providing an efficient and effective application of the best risk management practices. The aim of this paper is to examine the risk management framework for defense programs based on the ISO 31000:2009 standard, best risk management practices and the defense programs’ needs and particularities. For the purposes of this article, the term of defense programs refers to joint defense programs.

  3. Assessing the risk of impact of farming intensification on calcareous grasslands in Europe: a quantitative implementation of the MIRABEL framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petit, S.; Elbersen, B.S.

    2006-01-01

    Intensification of farming practices is still a major driver of biodiversity loss in Europe, despite the implementation of policies that aim to reverse this trend. A conceptual framework called MIRABEL was previously developed that enabled a qualitative and expert-based assessment of the impact of

  4. Landscape Environmental Assessment Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-07-20

    LEAF Version 2.0 is a framework comprising of three models RUSLE2, WEPS, and AGNPS. The framework can predict row crop, crop residue, and energy crop yields at a sub-field resolutions for various combinations of soil, climate and crop management and residue harvesting practices. It estimates the loss of soil, carbon, and nutrients to the atmosphere, to the groundwater, and to runoff. It also models the overland flow of water and washed-off sediments, nutrients and other chemicals to provide estimates of sediment, nutrient, and chemical loadings to water bodies within a watershed. AGNPS model and wash-off calculations are the new additions to this version of LEAF. Development of LEAF software is supported by DOE's BETO program.

  5. A conceptual framework to support exposure science research and complete the source-to-outcome continuum for risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    While knowledge of exposure is fundamental to assessing and mitigating risks, exposure information has been costly and difficult to generate. Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computational tools, and a newly articulated vision for a great...

  6. Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision

  7. Multisensor satellite data for water quality analysis and water pollution risk assessment: decision making under deep uncertainty with fuzzy algorithm in framework of multimodel approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V.; Sztoyka, Yulia; Kopachevsky, Ivan; Artemenko, Igor; Yuschenko, Maxim

    2017-10-01

    Multi-model approach for remote sensing data processing and interpretation is described. The problem of satellite data utilization in multi-modeling approach for socio-ecological risks assessment is formally defined. Observation, measurement and modeling data utilization method in the framework of multi-model approach is described. Methodology and models of risk assessment in framework of decision support approach are defined and described. Method of water quality assessment using satellite observation data is described. Method is based on analysis of spectral reflectance of aquifers. Spectral signatures of freshwater bodies and offshores are analyzed. Correlations between spectral reflectance, pollutions and selected water quality parameters are analyzed and quantified. Data of MODIS, MISR, AIRS and Landsat sensors received in 2002-2014 have been utilized verified by in-field spectrometry and lab measurements. Fuzzy logic based approach for decision support in field of water quality degradation risk is discussed. Decision on water quality category is making based on fuzzy algorithm using limited set of uncertain parameters. Data from satellite observations, field measurements and modeling is utilizing in the framework of the approach proposed. It is shown that this algorithm allows estimate water quality degradation rate and pollution risks. Problems of construction of spatial and temporal distribution of calculated parameters, as well as a problem of data regularization are discussed. Using proposed approach, maps of surface water pollution risk from point and diffuse sources are calculated and discussed.

  8. White paper on the promotion of an integrated risk assessment concept in European regulatory frameworks for chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilks, M F; Roth, N; Aicher, L; Faust, M; Papadaki, P; Marchis, A; Calliera, M; Ginebreda, A; Andres, S; Kühne, R; Schüürmann, G

    2015-07-15

    The vision of a sustainable and safe use of chemicals to protect human health, preserve the environment and maintain the ecosystem requires innovative and more holistic approaches to risk assessment (RA) in order to better inform decision making. Integrated risk assessment (IRA) has been proposed as a solution to current scientific, societal and policy needs. It is defined as the mutual exploitation of environmental risk assessment (ERA) for human health risk assessment (HHRA) and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process. Extrapolating between species which are relevant for HHRA and ERA requires a detailed understanding of pathways of toxicity/modes of action (MoA) for the various toxicological endpoints. Significant scientific advances, changes in chemical legislation, and increasing environmental consciousness have created a favourable scientific and regulatory environment to develop and promote the concept and vision of IRA. An initial proof of concept is needed to foster the incorporation of IRA approaches into different chemical sectorial regulations and demonstrate their reliability for regulatory purposes. More familiarity and confidence with IRA will ultimately contribute to an overall reduction in in vivo toxicity testing requirements. However, significant progress will only be made if long-term support for MoA-related research is secured. In the short term, further exchange and harmonization of RA terminology, models and methodologies across chemical categories and regulatory agencies will support these efforts. Since societal values, public perceptions and cultural factors are of increasing importance for the acceptance of risk analysis and successful implementation of risk mitigation measures, the integration of socio-economic analysis and socio-behavioural considerations into the risk analysis process may help to produce a more

  9. TIMSS 2015 Assessment Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullis, Ina V. S., Ed.; Martin, Michael O., Ed.

    2013-01-01

    Now entering into its 20th year of data collection, Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, (TIMSS) is an international assessment of mathematics and science at the fourth and eighth grades. TIMSS 2015 is the most recent in the TIMSS series, which began with the first assessments in 1995 and has continued every four years--1999,…

  10. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  11. Conceptual Framework To Extend Life Cycle Assessment ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a decision-making tool that accounts for multiple impacts across the life cycle of a product or service. This paper presents a conceptual framework to integrate human health impact assessment with risk screening approaches to extend LCA to include near-field chemical sources (e.g., those originating from consumer products and building materials) that have traditionally been excluded from LCA. A new generation of rapid human exposure modeling and high-throughput toxicity testing is transforming chemical risk prioritization and provides an opportunity for integration of screening-level risk assessment (RA) with LCA. The combined LCA and RA approach considers environmental impacts of products alongside risks to human health, which is consistent with regulatory frameworks addressing RA within a sustainability mindset. A case study is presented to juxtapose LCA and risk screening approaches for a chemical used in a consumer product. The case study demonstrates how these new risk screening tools can be used to inform toxicity impact estimates in LCA and highlights needs for future research. The framework provides a basis for developing tools and methods to support decision making on the use of chemicals in products. This paper presents a conceptual framework for including near-field exposures into Life Cycle Assessment using advanced human exposure modeling and high-throughput tools

  12. An integrated environmental risk assessment and management framework for enhancing the sustainability of marine protected areas: the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve case study in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Elvis G B; Leung, Kenneth M Y; Morton, Brian; Lee, Joseph H W

    2015-02-01

    Marine protected areas (MPAs), such as marine parks and reserves, contain natural resources of immense value to the environment and mankind. Since MPAs may be situated in close proximity to urbanized areas and influenced by anthropogenic activities (e.g. continuous discharges of contaminated waters), the marine organisms contained in such waters are probably at risk. This study aimed at developing an integrated environmental risk assessment and management (IERAM) framework for enhancing the sustainability of such MPAs. The IERAM framework integrates conventional environmental risk assessment methods with a multi-layer-DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) conceptual approach, which can simplify the complex issues embraced by environmental management strategies and provide logical and concise management information. The IERAM process can generate a useful database, offer timely update on the status of MPAs, and assist in the prioritization of management options. We use the Cape d'Aguilar Marine Reserve in Hong Kong as an example to illustrate the IERAM framework. A comprehensive set of indicators were selected, aggregated and analyzed using this framework. Effects of management practices and programs were also assessed by comparing the temporal distributions of these indicators over a certain timeframe. Based on the obtained results, we have identified the most significant components for safeguarding the integrity of the marine reserve, and indicated the existing information gaps concerned with the management of the reserve. Apart from assessing the MPA's present condition, a successful implementation of the IERAM framework as evocated here would also facilitate better-informed decision-making and, hence, indirectly enhance the protection and conservation of the MPA's marine biodiversity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. A Fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS Framework for the Risk Assessment of Green Supply Chain Implementation in the Textile Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Nazam

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In the emerging supply chain environment, green supply chain risk management plays a significant role than ever. Risk is an inherent uncertainty and has tendency to disrupt the typical green supply chain management (GSCM operations and eventually reduce the success rate of industries. In order to mitigate the consequences, a fuzzy multi-criteria group decision making modeling (FMCGDM which could evaluate the potential risks in the context of (GSCM is needed from the industrial point of view. Therefore, this research proposes a combined fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP to calculate the weight of each risk criterion and sub-criterion and technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS methodology to rank and assess the risks associated with implementation of (GSCM practices under the fuzzy environment. The proposed fuzzy risk-oriented evaluation model is applied to a practical case of textile manufacturing industry. Finally, the proposed model helps the researchers and practitioners to understand the importance of conducting appropriate risk assessment when implementing green supply chain initiatives.

  14. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  15. TIMSS Advanced 2015 Assessment Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullis, Ina V. S., Ed.; Martin, Michael O., Ed.

    2014-01-01

    The "TIMSS Advanced 2015 Assessment Frameworks" provides the foundation for the two international assessments to take place as part of the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement's TIMSS (Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study) Advanced 2015--Advanced Mathematics and Physics. Chapter 1 (Liv…

  16. A GIS-based generic real-time risk assessment framework and decision tools for chemical spills in the river basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng; Lung, Wu-seng; Guo, Liang; Li, Mei

    2012-08-15

    This paper presents a generic framework and decision tools of real-time risk assessment on Emergency Environmental Decision Support System for response to chemical spills in river basin. The generic "4-step-3-model" framework is able to delineate the warning area and the impact on vulnerable receptors considering four types of hazards referring to functional area, societal impact, and human health and ecology system. Decision tools including the stand-alone system and software components were implemented on GIS platform. A detailed case study on the Songhua River nitrobenzene spill illustrated the goodness of the framework and tool Spill first responders and decision makers of catchment management will benefit from the rich, visual and dynamic hazard information output from the software. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool for the identification of hotspots along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armaroli, Clara; Duo, Enrico; Ciavola, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    The Emilia-Romagna coastline is located in northern Italy, facing the Adriatic sea. The area is especially exposed to the flooding hazard because of its low lying nature, high urbanisation and the large exploitation of beach resources for tourism. The identification of hotspots where marine flooding can cause significant damages is, therefore, a key issue. The methodology implemented to identify hotspots is based on the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool that was developed in the RISC-KIT project (www.risckit.eu). The tool combines the hazard component with different exposure indicators and is applied along predefined coastal sectors of almost 1 Km alongshore length. The coastline was divided into 106 sectors in which each component was analysed. The hazard part was evaluated through the computation of maximum water levels, obtained as the sum of wave set-up, storm surge and tide, calculated along representative beach profiles, one per sector, and for two return periods (10 and 100 years). The data for the computation of the maximum water level were extracted from the literature. The landward extension of flood-prone areas in each sector was the extension of the flood maps produced by the regional authorities for the EU Flood Directive and for the same return periods. The exposure indicators were evaluated taking into account the location and type of different assets in each sector and in flood-prone areas. Specifically, the assets that were taken into account are: the transport network, the utilities (water, gas and electricity) networks, the land use typologies, the social vulnerability status of the population and the business sector. Each component was then ranked from 1 to 5, considering a scale based on their computed value (hazard), importance and location (exposure indicators). A final coastal index (CI) was computed as the root mean square of the geometrical mean of the exposure indicators multiplied by the hazard indicator. Land use typologies were

  18. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2017-03-15

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

  19. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya; Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa

    2017-01-01

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

  20. An exposure-based framework for grouping pollutants for a cumulative risk assessment approach: case study of indoor semi-volatile organic compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fournier, Kevin; Glorennec, Philippe; Bonvallot, Nathalie

    2014-04-01

    Humans are exposed to a large number of contaminants, many of which may have similar health effects. This paper presents a framework for identifying pollutants to be included in a cumulative risk assessment approach. To account for the possibility of simultaneous exposure to chemicals with common toxic modes of action, the first step of the traditional risk assessment process, i.e. hazard identification, is structured in three sub-steps: (1a) Identification of pollutants people are exposed to, (1b) identification of effects and mechanisms of action of these pollutants, (1c) grouping of pollutants according to similarity of their mechanism of action and health effects. Based on this exposure-based grouping we can derive "multi-pollutant" toxicity reference values, in the "dose-response assessment" step. The approach proposed in this work is original in that it is based on real exposures instead of a limited number of pollutants from a unique chemical family, as traditionally performed. This framework is illustrated by the case study of semi-volatile organic compounds in French dwellings, providing insights into practical considerations regarding the accuracy of the available toxicological information. This case study illustrates the value of the exposure-based approach as opposed to the traditional cumulative framework, in which chemicals with similar health effects were not always included in the same chemical class. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Nano-risk Science: application of toxicogenomics in an adverse outcome pathway framework for risk assessment of multi-walled carbon nanotubes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labib, Sarah; Williams, Andrew; Yauk, Carole L; Nikota, Jake K; Wallin, Håkan; Vogel, Ulla; Halappanavar, Sabina

    2016-03-15

    A diverse class of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) exhibiting a wide array of physical-chemical properties that are associated with toxicological effects in experimental animals is in commercial use. However, an integrated framework for human health risk assessment (HHRA) of ENMs has yet to be established. Rodent 2-year cancer bioassays, clinical chemistry, and histopathological endpoints are still considered the 'gold standard' for detecting substance-induced toxicity in animal models. However, the use of data derived from alternative toxicological tools, such as genome-wide expression profiling and in vitro high-throughput assays, are gaining acceptance by the regulatory community for hazard identification and for understanding the underlying mode-of-action. Here, we conducted a case study to evaluate the application of global gene expression data in deriving pathway-based points of departure (PODs) for multi-walled carbon nanotube (MWCNT)-induced lung fibrosis, a non-cancer endpoint of regulatory importance. Gene expression profiles from the lungs of mice exposed to three individual MWCNTs with different physical-chemical properties were used within the framework of an adverse outcome pathway (AOP) for lung fibrosis to identify key biological events linking MWCNT exposure to lung fibrosis. Significantly perturbed pathways were categorized along the key events described in the AOP. Benchmark doses (BMDs) were calculated for each perturbed pathway and were used to derive transcriptional BMDs for each MWCNT. Similar biological pathways were perturbed by the different MWCNT types across the doses and post-exposure time points studied. The pathway BMD values showed a time-dependent trend, with lower BMDs for pathways perturbed at the earlier post-exposure time points (24 h, 3d). The transcriptional BMDs were compared to the apical BMDs derived by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) using alveolar septal thickness and fibrotic lesions

  2. A framework for the establishment of organizational risk indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oien, K.

    2001-01-01

    Organizational risk indicators are proposed as a tool for risk control during operation of offshore installations, as a complement to QRA-based indicators. An organizational factor framework is developed based on a review of existing organizational factor frameworks, research on safety performance indicators, and previous work on QRA-based indicators. The results comprise a qualitative organizational model, proposed organizational risk indicators, and a quantification methodology for assessing the impact of the organization on risk. The risk indicators, when validated, will aid in a frequent control of the risk in the periods between the updating of the quantitative risk assessments

  3. 2008 Arts Education Assessment Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Assessment Governing Board, 2008

    2008-01-01

    The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) for the arts measures students' knowledge and skills in creating, performing, and responding to works of music, theatre, and visual arts. This framework document asserts that dance, music, theatre and the visual arts are important parts of a full education. When students engage in the arts,…

  4. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  5. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  6. Moving from deterministic towards probabilistic coastal hazard and risk assessment: Development of a modelling framework and application to Narrabeen Beach, New South Wales, Australia, doi: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.11.009

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wainwright, D.J.; Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Callaghan, D.P.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Jongejan, R.; Dougherty, A.J.; Rogers, K.; Cowell, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    Traditional methods for assessing coastal hazards have not typically incorporated a rigorous treatment of uncertainty. Such treatment is necessary to enable risk assessments which are now required by emerging risk based coastal zone management/planning frameworks. While unresolved issues remain,

  7. A Framework for Collateral Risk Control Determination

    OpenAIRE

    Didier Cossin; Zhijiang Huang; Daniel Aunon-Nerin; Fer nando González

    2002-01-01

    This paper derives a general framework for collateral risk control determination in repurchase transactions or repos. The objective is to treat consistently heterogeneous collateral so that the collateral taker has a similar risk exposure whatever the collateral pledged. The framework measures the level of risk with the probability of incurring a loss higher than a pre-specified level given two well-known parameters used to manage the intrinsic risk of collateral: marking to market and haircu...

  8. Consideration of the bioavailability of metal/metalloid species in freshwaters: experiences regarding the implementation of biotic ligand model-based approaches in risk assessment frameworks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rüdel, Heinz; Díaz Muñiz, Cristina; Garelick, Hemda; Kandile, Nadia G; Miller, Bradley W; Pantoja Munoz, Leonardo; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Purchase, Diane; Shevah, Yehuda; van Sprang, Patrick; Vijver, Martina; Vink, Jos P M

    2015-05-01

    After the scientific development of biotic ligand models (BLMs) in recent decades, these models are now considered suitable for implementation in regulatory risk assessment of metals in freshwater bodies. The BLM approach has been described in many peer-reviewed publications, and the original complex BLMs have been applied in prospective risk assessment reports for metals and metal compounds. BLMs are now also recommended as suitable concepts for the site-specific evaluation of monitoring data in the context of the European Water Framework Directive. However, the use is hampered by the data requirements for the original BLMs (about 10 water parameters). Recently, several user-friendly BLM-based bioavailability software tools for assessing the aquatic toxicity of relevant metals (mainly copper, nickel, and zinc) became available. These tools only need a basic set of commonly determined water parameters as input (i.e., pH, hardness, dissolved organic matter, and dissolved metal concentration). Such tools seem appropriate to foster the implementation of routine site-specific water quality assessments. This work aims to review the existing bioavailability-based regulatory approaches and the application of available BLM-based bioavailability tools for this purpose. Advantages and possible drawbacks of these tools (e.g., feasibility, boundaries of validity) are discussed, and recommendations for further implementation are given.

  9. 77 FR 44613 - Notice of Availability of the External Review Draft of Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-30

    ...., Washington, DC. The Public Reading Room is open from 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., Monday through Friday, excluding legal holidays. The telephone number for the Public Reading Room is (202) 566-1744, and the telephone... policy, it also emphasizes the importance of scientific review and public involvement. The Framework...

  10. Holistic seismic risk assessment of port of Spain: an integrated evaluation and tool in the framework of CAPRA

    OpenAIRE

    Carreño Tibaduiza, Martha Liliana; Cardona Arboleda, Omar Dario; Barbat Barbat, Horia Alejandro; Velasquez, Cesar A.; Salgado Galvez, Mario A.

    2014-01-01

    In recent years disaster risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a given period of time. However, in many cases, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way according to each scientific discipline involved in its estimation. In order to evaluate risk according to the above stated definition, a multidisciplinary evaluation is necessary. This evaluation should take into a...

  11. Integrating a flexible modeling framework (FMF) with the network security assessment instrument to reduce software security risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliam, D. P.; Powell, J. D.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a portion of an overall research project on the generation of the network security assessment instrument to aid developers in assessing and assuring the security of software in the development and maintenance lifecycles.

  12. PCA-based polling strategy in machine learning framework for coronary artery disease risk assessment in intravascular ultrasound: A link between carotid and coronary grayscale plaque morphology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araki, Tadashi; Ikeda, Nobutaka; Shukla, Devarshi; Jain, Pankaj K; Londhe, Narendra D; Shrivastava, Vimal K; Banchhor, Sumit K; Saba, Luca; Nicolaides, Andrew; Shafique, Shoaib; Laird, John R; Suri, Jasjit S

    2016-05-01

    Percutaneous coronary interventional procedures need advance planning prior to stenting or an endarterectomy. Cardiologists use intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) for screening, risk assessment and stratification of coronary artery disease (CAD). We hypothesize that plaque components are vulnerable to rupture due to plaque progression. Currently, there are no standard grayscale IVUS tools for risk assessment of plaque rupture. This paper presents a novel strategy for risk stratification based on plaque morphology embedded with principal component analysis (PCA) for plaque feature dimensionality reduction and dominant feature selection technique. The risk assessment utilizes 56 grayscale coronary features in a machine learning framework while linking information from carotid and coronary plaque burdens due to their common genetic makeup. This system consists of a machine learning paradigm which uses a support vector machine (SVM) combined with PCA for optimal and dominant coronary artery morphological feature extraction. Carotid artery proven intima-media thickness (cIMT) biomarker is adapted as a gold standard during the training phase of the machine learning system. For the performance evaluation, K-fold cross validation protocol is adapted with 20 trials per fold. For choosing the dominant features out of the 56 grayscale features, a polling strategy of PCA is adapted where the original value of the features is unaltered. Different protocols are designed for establishing the stability and reliability criteria of the coronary risk assessment system (cRAS). Using the PCA-based machine learning paradigm and cross-validation protocol, a classification accuracy of 98.43% (AUC 0.98) with K=10 folds using an SVM radial basis function (RBF) kernel was achieved. A reliability index of 97.32% and machine learning stability criteria of 5% were met for the cRAS. This is the first Computer aided design (CADx) system of its kind that is able to demonstrate the ability of coronary

  13. Framework for systematic risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knief, R.A.; Mahn, J.A.; Briant, V.S.; Lee, R.B.; Long, R.L.

    1991-01-01

    The first paper of the Symposium described GPU Nuclear's Risk Management Group (RMG) and the use of literature search and interviews in a extensive study of risk management. One of the most important goals of the study was to identify comprehensive approaches to managing risk in the nuclear and major high-technology industries. This paper discusses RMG's multi-step generic risk-management process consisting of the following steps to: identify hazards; screen hazards and identify preventive actions, including costs; evaluate hazards for severity, probable frequency, and cost of preventive actions; prioritize preventive actions (preference to high risk and low cost); implement preventive actions; monitor and provide feedback

  14. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  15. Integrated Risk Framework for Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Steven; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Thomas, Evan; Hargreaves, Megan; Frost, Ray; Dawes, Les

    2006-08-01

    Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.

  16. A Sustainability Assessment Framework For Waterfront Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sally Said Eldeeb

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available It is predicted that the global phenomena of Climate change will have far reaching effects and implications on different local urban systems. For incidence, global average sea levels are expected to rise between 7 and 36 cm by the 2050s, and between 9 and 69 cm by the 2080s. Waterfront communities are the first to be affected by such impacts putting them at high risk. Planning tools are needed to assist these communities and increase their adaptive and learning capacities in the face of diverse challenges to their urban sub-systems.  The research investigates a number of sustainability frameworks and assessment rating systems for neighbourhoods and communities. It investigates the sustainable evaluation criteria carried out by three assessment rating systems. First is the LEED (Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design, USA, the second is BREEAM (Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method, UK, and the third is the Estidama PEARL rating system (UAE.Examples of waterfront communities which applied the previous rating systemsare analyzed in order to determine the applicability and relevance of these systems to waterfront communities in particular.  The research concludes with a proposed framework of indicators for waterfront communities. The similarities and differences between the different rating systems and featured indicators specific to waterfront planning applied in the analyzed examples, yet absent in the three rating systems, have informed the selection of indicators in the proposed assessment framework. The proposed framework could be an effective tool for the planning and development of a waterfront community in the MENA region. In order to validate the framework, theset of environmental and physical indicators were applied on the case study of Abu Qir waterfront, Alexandria, Egypt. Conclusions and recommendations  are made that would enhance the resilience of this waterfront community and provide a comprehensive

  17. Conflict and HIV: A framework for risk assessment to prevent HIV in conflict-affected settings in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mock, Nancy B; Duale, Sambe; Brown, Lisanne F; Mathys, Ellen; O'maonaigh, Heather C; Abul-Husn, Nina Kl; Elliott, Sterling

    2004-10-29

    In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV/AIDS and violent conflict interact to shape population health and development in dramatic ways. HIV/AIDS can create conditions conducive to conflict. Conflict can affect the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. Conflict is generally understood to accelerate HIV transmission, but this view is simplistic and disregards complex interrelationships between factors that can inhibit and accelerate the spread of HIV in conflict and post conflict settings, respectively. This paper provides a framework for understanding these factors and discusses their implications for policy formulation and program planning in conflict-affected settings.

  18. Conflict and HIV: A framework for risk assessment to prevent HIV in conflict-affected settings in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mock Nancy B

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV/AIDS and violent conflict interact to shape population health and development in dramatic ways. HIV/AIDS can create conditions conducive to conflict. Conflict can affect the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. Conflict is generally understood to accelerate HIV transmission, but this view is simplistic and disregards complex interrelationships between factors that can inhibit and accelerate the spread of HIV in conflict and post conflict settings, respectively. This paper provides a framework for understanding these factors and discusses their implications for policy formulation and program planning in conflict-affected settings.

  19. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  20. A new risk assessment approach for the prioritization of 500 classical and emerging organic microcontaminants as potential river basin specific pollutants under the European Water Framework Directive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    von der Ohe, Peter Carsten; Dulio, Valeria; Slobodnik, Jaroslav; De Deckere, Eric; Kühne, Ralph; Ebert, Ralf-Uwe; Ginebreda, Antoni; De Cooman, Ward; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Brack, Werner

    2011-05-01

    Given the huge number of chemicals released into the environment and existing time and budget constraints, there is a need to prioritize chemicals for risk assessment and monitoring in the context of the European Union Water Framework Directive (EU WFD). This study is the first to assess the risk of 500 organic substances based on observations in the four European river basins of the Elbe, Scheldt, Danube and Llobregat. A decision tree is introduced that first classifies chemicals into six categories depending on the information available, which allows water managers to focus on the next steps (e.g. derivation of Environmental Quality Standards (EQS), improvement of analytical methods, etc.). The priority within each category is then evaluated based on two indicators, the Frequency of Exceedance and the Extent of Exceedance of Predicted No-Effect Concentrations (PNECs). These two indictors are based on maximum environmental concentrations (MEC), rather than the commonly used statistically based averages (Predicted Effect Concentration, PEC), and compared to the lowest acute-based (PNEC(acute)) or chronic-based thresholds (PNEC(chronic)). For 56% of the compounds, PNECs were available from existing risk assessments, and the majority of these PNECs were derived from chronic toxicity data or simulated ecosystem studies (mesocosm) with rather low assessment factors. The limitations of this concept for risk assessment purposes are discussed. For the remainder, provisional PNECs (P-PNECs) were established from read-across models for acute toxicity to the standard test organisms Daphnia magna, Pimephales promelas and Selenastrum capricornutum. On the one hand, the prioritization revealed that about three-quarter of the 44 substances with MEC/PNEC ratios above ten were pesticides. On the other hand, based on the monitoring data used in this study, no risk with regard to the water phase could be found for eight of the 41 priority substances, indicating a first success of

  1. Business recovery: an assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Joanne R; Brown, Charlotte; Seville, Erica; Vargo, John

    2018-07-01

    This paper presents a Business Recovery Assessment Framework (BRAF) to help researchers and practitioners design robust, repeatable, and comparable studies of business recovery in various post-disruption contexts. Studies assessing business recovery without adequately considering the research aims, recovery definitions, and indicators can produce misleading findings. The BRAF is composed of a series of steps that guide the decisions that researchers need to make to ensure: (i) that recovery is indeed being measured; (ii) that the indicators of recovery that are selected align with the objectives of the study and the definition of recovery; and, where necessary, (iii) that appropriate comparative control variables are in place. The paper draws on a large dataset of business surveys collected following the earthquakes in Canterbury, New Zealand, on 4 September 2010 and 22 February 2011 to demonstrate the varied conclusions that different recovery indicators can produce and to justify the need for a systematic approach to business recovery assessments. © 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

  2. A Bayesian framework for risk perception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Erp, H.R.N.

    2017-01-01

    We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy

  3. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  4. An exposure-based, ecology-driven framework for selection of indicator species for insecticide risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the current “tiered” paradigm for evaluating risks of insecticidal products, one of the first decisions that must be made is the selection of indicator species to be used in toxicity assays. However, as yet, no formal system has been developed to determine whether proposed indicator species are r...

  5. Dose response models and a quantitative microbial risk assessment framework for the Mycobacterium avium complex that account for recent developments in molecular biology, taxonomy, and epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Kerry A; Weir, Mark H; Haas, Charles N

    2017-02-01

    Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) is a group of environmentally-transmitted pathogens of great public health importance. This group is known to be harbored, amplified, and selected for more human-virulent characteristics by amoeba species in aquatic biofilms. However, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has not been performed due to the lack of dose response models resulting from significant heterogeneity within even a single species or subspecies of MAC, as well as the range of human susceptibilities to mycobacterial disease. The primary human-relevant species and subspecies responsible for the majority of the human disease burden and present in drinking water, biofilms, and soil are M. avium subsp. hominissuis, M. intracellulare, and M. chimaera. A critical review of the published literature identified important health endpoints, exposure routes, and susceptible populations for MAC risk assessment. In addition, data sets for quantitative dose-response functions were extracted from published in vivo animal dosing experiments. As a result, seven new exponential dose response models for human-relevant species of MAC with endpoints of lung lesions, death, disseminated infection, liver infection, and lymph node lesions are proposed. Although current physical and biochemical tests used in clinical settings do not differentiate between M. avium and M. intracellulare, differentiating between environmental species and subspecies of the MAC can aid in the assessment of health risks and control of MAC sources. A framework is proposed for incorporating the proposed dose response models into susceptible population- and exposure route-specific QMRA models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Automatic and consistent registration framework for temporal pairs of mammograms in application to breast cancer risk assessment due to hormone replacement therapy (HRT)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karemore, Gopal Raghunath; Carreras, I. Arganda; Nielsen, Mads

    2009-01-01

     Purpose: Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer. However, whether changes in mammographic density due to HRT are associated with risk remains unclear. The aim of this study is to provide a framework for accurate interval change analysis in temporal pairs of mammograms of ...

  7. Incorporating New Technologies Into Toxicity Testing and Risk Assessment: Moving From 21st Century Vision to a Data-Driven Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Russell S.

    2013-01-01

    Based on existing data and previous work, a series of studies is proposed as a basis toward a pragmatic early step in transforming toxicity testing. These studies were assembled into a data-driven framework that invokes successive tiers of testing with margin of exposure (MOE) as the primary metric. The first tier of the framework integrates data from high-throughput in vitro assays, in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) pharmacokinetic modeling, and exposure modeling. The in vitro assays are used to separate chemicals based on their relative selectivity in interacting with biological targets and identify the concentration at which these interactions occur. The IVIVE modeling converts in vitro concentrations into external dose for calculation of the point of departure (POD) and comparisons to human exposure estimates to yield a MOE. The second tier involves short-term in vivo studies, expanded pharmacokinetic evaluations, and refined human exposure estimates. The results from the second tier studies provide more accurate estimates of the POD and the MOE. The third tier contains the traditional animal studies currently used to assess chemical safety. In each tier, the POD for selective chemicals is based primarily on endpoints associated with a proposed mode of action, whereas the POD for nonselective chemicals is based on potential biological perturbation. Based on the MOE, a significant percentage of chemicals evaluated in the first 2 tiers could be eliminated from further testing. The framework provides a risk-based and animal-sparing approach to evaluate chemical safety, drawing broadly from previous experience but incorporating technological advances to increase efficiency. PMID:23958734

  8. Incorporating new technologies into toxicity testing and risk assessment: moving from 21st century vision to a data-driven framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Russell S; Philbert, Martin A; Auerbach, Scott S; Wetmore, Barbara A; Devito, Michael J; Cote, Ila; Rowlands, J Craig; Whelan, Maurice P; Hays, Sean M; Andersen, Melvin E; Meek, M E Bette; Reiter, Lawrence W; Lambert, Jason C; Clewell, Harvey J; Stephens, Martin L; Zhao, Q Jay; Wesselkamper, Scott C; Flowers, Lynn; Carney, Edward W; Pastoor, Timothy P; Petersen, Dan D; Yauk, Carole L; Nong, Andy

    2013-11-01

    Based on existing data and previous work, a series of studies is proposed as a basis toward a pragmatic early step in transforming toxicity testing. These studies were assembled into a data-driven framework that invokes successive tiers of testing with margin of exposure (MOE) as the primary metric. The first tier of the framework integrates data from high-throughput in vitro assays, in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) pharmacokinetic modeling, and exposure modeling. The in vitro assays are used to separate chemicals based on their relative selectivity in interacting with biological targets and identify the concentration at which these interactions occur. The IVIVE modeling converts in vitro concentrations into external dose for calculation of the point of departure (POD) and comparisons to human exposure estimates to yield a MOE. The second tier involves short-term in vivo studies, expanded pharmacokinetic evaluations, and refined human exposure estimates. The results from the second tier studies provide more accurate estimates of the POD and the MOE. The third tier contains the traditional animal studies currently used to assess chemical safety. In each tier, the POD for selective chemicals is based primarily on endpoints associated with a proposed mode of action, whereas the POD for nonselective chemicals is based on potential biological perturbation. Based on the MOE, a significant percentage of chemicals evaluated in the first 2 tiers could be eliminated from further testing. The framework provides a risk-based and animal-sparing approach to evaluate chemical safety, drawing broadly from previous experience but incorporating technological advances to increase efficiency.

  9. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Schmidt

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The European Space Agency (ESA is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk associated to a landing site in terms of a successful touchdown and subsequent surface operation of the lander. In addition, global illumination conditions at the landing site have to be simulated and analyzed. The Landing Site Risk Analysis software framework (LandSAfe is a system for the analysis, selection and certification of safe landing sites on the lunar surface. LandSAfe generates several data products including high resolution digital terrain models (DTMs, hazard maps, illumination maps, temperature maps and surface reflectance maps which assist the user in evaluating potential landing site candidates. This paper presents the LandSAfe system and describes the methods and products of the different modules. For one candidate landing site on the rim of Shackleton crater at the south pole of the Moon a high resolution DTM is showcased.

  10. Low-Probability High-Consequence (LPHC) Failure Events in Geologic Carbon Sequestration Pipelines and Wells: Framework for LPHC Risk Assessment Incorporating Spatial Variability of Risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oldenburg, Curtis M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Budnitz, Robert J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-08-31

    If Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is to be effective in mitigating climate change, it will need to be carried out on a very large scale. This will involve many thousands of miles of dedicated high-pressure pipelines in order to transport many millions of tonnes of CO2 annually, with the CO2 delivered to many thousands of wells that will inject the CO2 underground. The new CCS infrastructure could rival in size the current U.S. upstream natural gas pipeline and well infrastructure. This new infrastructure entails hazards for life, health, animals, the environment, and natural resources. Pipelines are known to rupture due to corrosion, from external forces such as impacts by vehicles or digging equipment, by defects in construction, or from the failure of valves and seals. Similarly, wells are vulnerable to catastrophic failure due to corrosion, cement degradation, or operational mistakes. While most accidents involving pipelines and wells will be minor, there is the inevitable possibility of accidents with very high consequences, especially to public health. The most important consequence of concern is CO2 release to the environment in concentrations sufficient to cause death by asphyxiation to nearby populations. Such accidents are thought to be very unlikely, but of course they cannot be excluded, even if major engineering effort is devoted (as it will be) to keeping their probability low and their consequences minimized. This project has developed a methodology for analyzing the risks of these rare but high-consequence accidents, using a step-by-step probabilistic methodology. A key difference between risks for pipelines and wells is that the former are spatially distributed along the pipe whereas the latter are confined to the vicinity of the well. Otherwise, the methodology we develop for risk assessment of pipeline and well failures is similar and provides an analysis both of the annual probabilities of

  11. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  12. Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology Development Risk Management Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Snowberg, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Weber, Jochem [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Over the past decade, the global marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry has suffered a number of serious technological and commercial setbacks. To help reduce the risks of industry failures and advance the development of new technologies, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed an MHK Risk Management Framework. By addressing uncertainties, the MHK Risk Management Framework increases the likelihood of successful development of an MHK technology. It covers projects of any technical readiness level (TRL) or technical performance level (TPL) and all risk types (e.g. technological risk, regulatory risk, commercial risk) over the development cycle. This framework is intended for the development and deployment of a single MHK technology—not for multiple device deployments within a plant. This risk framework is intended to meet DOE’s risk management expectations for the MHK technology research and development efforts of the Water Power Program (see Appendix A). It also provides an overview of other relevant risk management tools and documentation.1 This framework emphasizes design and risk reviews as formal gates to ensure risks are managed throughout the technology development cycle. Section 1 presents the recommended technology development cycle, Sections 2 and 3 present tools to assess the TRL and TPL of the project, respectively. Section 4 presents a risk management process with design and risk reviews for actively managing risk within the project, and Section 5 presents a detailed description of a risk registry to collect the risk management information into one living document. Section 6 presents recommendations for collecting and using lessons learned throughout the development process.

  13. Environmental risk analysis for nanomaterials: Review and evaluation of frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara Deanne; Linkov, Igor; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2012-01-01

    to occupational settings with minor environmental considerations, and most have not been thoroughly tested on a wide range of NM. Care should also be taken when selecting the most appropriate risk analysis strategy for a given risk context. Given this, we recommend a multi-faceted approach to assess...... the environmental risks of NM as well as increased applications and testing of the proposed frameworks for different NM....

  14. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  15. NANoREG framework for the safety assessment of nanomaterials

    OpenAIRE

    Gottardo, Stefania; Alessandrelli, Maria; Amenta, Valeria; Atluri, Rambabu; Barberio, Grazia; Bekker, Cindy; Bergonzo, Philippe; Bleeker, Eric; Booth, Andy; Borges, Teresa; Buttol, Patrizia; Carlander, David; Castelli, Stefano; Chevillard, Sylvie

    2017-01-01

    The NANoREG framework addresses the need to ease the nanomaterials safety assessment in the REACH Regulation context. It offers forward-looking strategies: Safe-by-Design, a Nanospecific Prioritisation and Risk Assessment, and Life Cycle Assessment. It is intended for scientific experts, regulatory authorities and industry.

  16. Risk Control of Offshore Installations. A Framework for the Establishment of Risk Indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oeien, Knut

    2001-07-01

    Currently quantitative risk assessments are carried out to analyze the risk level of offshore installations and to evaluate whether or not the risk level is acceptable. By way of the quantitative risk analysis the risk status of a given installation is obtained. However, the risk status is obtained so infrequently that it is inadequate for risk control. It can be compared to economic control having the economic status presented about each fifth year, which is obviously inadequate. It is important to know the risk status because this may provide an early warning about the need for remedial actions. Without frequent information about the risk status, control of risk cannot be claimed. The main objective of this thesis has been the development of a framework for the establishment of risk indicators. These risk indicators provide a status of the risk level through measuring of changes in technical, operational and organizational factors important to risk, and is thus a means to control risk during operation of offshore petroleum installations. The framework consists of a technical methodology using the quantitative risk assessment as a basis, an organizational model, and an organizational quantification methodology. Technical risk indicators are established from the technical methodology covering the risk factors explicitly included in the quantitative risk assessment. Organizational risk indicators measure changes in the organizational risk factors included in the organizational model, but not included in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational model is an extension to the risk model in the quantitative risk assessment. The organizational quantification methodology calculates the effect of the changes measured by the organizational risk indicators. The organizational model may also be applied as a qualitative tool for root cause analysis of incidents (process leaks). Other results are an intermediate-level expert judgment procedure applicable for

  17. A quantitative framework for assessing ecological resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quantitative approaches to measure and assess resilience are needed to bridge gaps between science, policy, and management. In this paper, we suggest a quantitative framework for assessing ecological resilience. Ecological resilience as an emergent ecosystem phenomenon can be de...

  18. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  19. A Framework for the Next Generation of Risk Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krewski, Daniel; Andersen, Melvin E.; Paoli, Gregory M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Al-Zoughool, Mustafa; Croteau, Maxine C.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Cote, Ila

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: In 2011, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency initiated the NexGen project to develop a new paradigm for the next generation of risk science. Methods: The NexGen framework was built on three cornerstones: the availability of new data on toxicity pathways made possible by fundamental advances in basic biology and toxicological science, the incorporation of a population health perspective that recognizes that most adverse health outcomes involve multiple determinants, and a renewed focus on new risk assessment methodologies designed to better inform risk management decision making. Results: The NexGen framework has three phases. Phase I (objectives) focuses on problem formulation and scoping, taking into account the risk context and the range of available risk management decision-making options. Phase II (risk assessment) seeks to identify critical toxicity pathway perturbations using new toxicity testing tools and technologies, and to better characterize risks and uncertainties using advanced risk assessment methodologies. Phase III (risk management) involves the development of evidence-based population health risk management strategies of a regulatory, economic, advisory, community-based, or technological nature, using sound principles of risk management decision making. Conclusions: Analysis of a series of case study prototypes indicated that many aspects of the NexGen framework are already beginning to be adopted in practice. Citation: Krewski D, Westphal M, Andersen ME, Paoli GM, Chiu WA, Al-Zoughool M, Croteau MC, Burgoon LD, Cote I. 2014. A framework for the next generation of risk science. Environ Health Perspect 122:796–805; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307260 PMID:24727499

  20. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  1. Economic assessment of landslide risks in the Swabian Alb, Germany ‒ research framework and first results of homeowners' and experts' surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Blöchl

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Landslide risks are frequently underestimated by political and economic actors as well as by the local population. The InterRisk Assess research project is working to develop a systematic approach to the analysis and evaluation of economic landslide risks at a local and regional scale. Its major aims are to determine the extent of potential damage and economic losses caused by landslides, to analyze individual and collective patterns of risk assessment and to develop recommendations for pro-active risk management. The research methodology includes GIS-based risk analyses and interviews with relevant actors in politics, administration and planning, private households and land owners. The research findings will facilitate a better-informed, efficient and sustainable use of natural resources and natural risks. The research project also aims to contribute to methodological progress in risk research.

  2. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  3. Nano-risk Science: application of toxicogenomics in an adverse outcome pathway framework for risk assessment of multi-walled carbon nanotubes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Labib, Sarah; Williams, Andrew; Yauk, Carole L.

    2016-01-01

    -based points of departure (PODs) for multi-walled carbon nanotube (MWCNT)-induced lung fibrosis, a non-cancer endpoint of regulatory importance. Methods: Gene expression profiles from the lungs of mice exposed to three individual MWCNTs with different physical-chemical properties were used within the framework...... with fibrosis were 14.0-30.4 mu g/mouse, which are comparable to the BMDs derived by NIOSH for MWCNT-induced lung fibrotic lesions (21.0-27.1 mu g/mouse). Conclusions: The results demonstrate that transcriptomic data can be used to as an effective mechanism-based method to derive acceptable levels of exposure...

  4. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  5. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  6. The crysophere as a resource and hazard - Integrated framework for the assessment of future water resource vulnerability and glacial hazard risk assessment in the Kullu district, Himachal Pradesh, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Simon; Awasthi, Kirtiman; Ballesteros, Juan Antonio; Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; Kahn, Mustafa; Linsbauer, Andreas; Rohrer, Mario; Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Salzmann, Nadine; Schauwecker, Simone; Stoffel, Markus

    2014-05-01

    High mountain environments are particularly susceptible to changes in atmospheric temperature and precipitation patterns, owing to the sensitivity of cryospheric components to melting conditions, and the importance of rainfall and river runoff for sustaining crops and livelihoods. The Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh (population ca. 6 mil.) is the initial focus of a joint program between the governments of India and Switzerland aiming to build scientific capacity to understand the threat, and plan for adaptation to climate change in the Himalaya. Here we focus on the cryosphere, and provide an overview of the integrated framework we will follow to assess future water resource vulnerability from changes in runoff, and assess future disaster risk from mass movement and flood hazards. At this early stage of our project, we aim to identify key methodological steps, data requirements, and related challenges. The initial implementation of our framework will be centered on the Kullu district. Core and integrative components of both the traditional climate vulnerability framework (eg., IPCC AR4), and the vulnerability and risk concepts of the disaster risk management community (eg., IPCC SREX 2012) include the assessment of sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. Sensitivity to water vulnerability in the Kullu district requires the quantification of current and future water resource usage at the block or community level, using metrics such as total irrigated land area, total electricity usage, population density and birth rates. Within the disaster risk framework, sensitivity to mass movement and flood hazards will be determined based on factors such as population density and demographics (notably age and gender), strength of building materials etc. Projected temperature and precipitation data from regional climate model output will be used to model changes in melt water runoff and streamflow, determining the exposure of communities and natural systems to future

  7. ASIC/FPGA Trust Assessment Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Melanie

    2018-01-01

    NASA Electronic Parts and Packaging (NEPP) is developing a process to be employed in critical applications. The framework assesses levels of Trust and assurance in microelectronic systems. The process is being created with participation from a variety of organizations. We present a synopsis of the framework that includes contributions from The Aerospace Corporation.

  8. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  9. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  10. Framework for assessment of environmental impact (Fasset)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsson, C.M.

    2002-01-01

    work packages on exposure, dosimetry and effects will be organised into a framework for impact assessments, which will take into account experiences from application of eco-toxicological approaches in assessing effects of other hazardous substances. Characterisation of risks will be performed in a way that attempts to make the framework useful to regulators, for demonstration of compliance, and for communicating with the public and decision-makers. (author)

  11. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  12. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  13. Probabilistic economic frameworks for disaster risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dulac, Guillaume; Forni, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Starting from the general concept of risk, we set up an economic analysis framework for Disaster Risk Management (DRM) investment. It builds on uncertainty management techniques - notably Monte Carlo simulations - and includes both a risk and performance metrics adapted to recurring issues in disaster risk management as entertained by governments and international organisations. This type of framework proves to be enlightening in several regards, and is thought to ease the promotion of DRM projects as "investments" rather than "costs to be born" and allow for meaningful comparison between DRM and other sectors. We then look at the specificities of disaster risk investments of medium to large scales through this framework, where some "invariants" can be identified, notably: (i) it makes more sense to perform analysis over long-term horizons -space and time scales are somewhat linked; (ii) profiling of the fluctuations of the gains and losses of DRM investments over long periods requires the ability to handle possibly highly volatile variables; (iii) complexity increases with the scale which results in a higher sensitivity of the analytic framework on the results; (iv) as the perimeter of analysis (time, theme and space-wise) is widened, intrinsic parameters of the project tend to weight lighter. This puts DRM in a very different perspective from traditional modelling, which usually builds on more intrinsic features of the disaster as it relates to the scientific knowledge about hazard(s). As models hardly accommodate for such complexity or "data entropy" (they require highly structured inputs), there is a need for a complementary approach to understand risk at global scale. The proposed framework suggests opting for flexible ad hoc modelling of specific issues consistent with one's objective, risk and performance metrics. Such tailored solutions are strongly context-dependant (time and budget, sensitivity of the studied variable in the economic framework) and can

  14. A risk-based framework to assess long-term effects of policy and water supply changes on water resources systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia

    2015-04-01

    Climate uncertainty can affect water resources availability and management decisions. Sustainable water resources management therefore requires evaluation of policy and management decisions under a wide range of possible future water supply conditions. This study proposes a risk-based framework to integrate water supply uncertainty into a forward-looking decision making context. To apply this framework, a stochastic reconstruction scheme is used to generate a large ensemble of flow series. For the Rocky Mountain basins considered here, two key characteristics of the annual hydrograph are its annual flow volume and the timing of the seasonal flood peak. These are perturbed to represent natural randomness and potential changes due to future climate. 30-year series of perturbed flows are used as input to the SWAMP model - an integrated water resources model that simulates regional water supply-demand system and estimates economic productivity of water and other sustainability indicators, including system vulnerability and resilience. The simulation results are used to construct 2D-maps of net revenue of a particular water sector; e.g., hydropower, or for all sectors combined. Each map cell represents a risk scenario of net revenue based on a particular annual flow volume, timing of the peak flow, and 200 stochastic realizations of flow series. This framework is demonstrated for a water resources system in the Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB) in Saskatchewan, Canada. Critical historical drought sequences, derived from tree-ring reconstructions of several hundred years of annual river flows, are used to evaluate the system's performance (net revenue risk) under extremely low flow conditions and also to locate them on the previously produced 2D risk maps. This simulation and analysis framework is repeated under various reservoir operation strategies (e.g., maximizing flood protection or maximizing water supply security); development proposals, such as irrigation

  15. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  16. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  17. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  18. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  19. Framework for human health risk assessment of non-cancer effects resulting from short-duration and intermittent exposures to chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haber, Lynne T; Sandhu, Reena; Li-Muller, Angela; Mohapatra, Asish; Petrovic, Sanya; Meek, M E Bette

    2016-09-01

    Durations of exposure to chemicals, whether for single, repeated or intermittent periods, may vary from those upon which most guidance values are normally based. Because it is presently not feasible to conduct toxicity studies or develop toxicity reference values (TRVs) specific to each scenario of interest, methods are needed to address these various durations, drawing as much as possible on existing TRVs. A working framework was developed to address the potential for non-cancer effects resulting from continuous short-duration and intermittent exposures to chemicals. The framework presents an integrated, tiered approach that assists the user in identifying when existing TRVs can be applied directly, and the adaptations needed to assess the acceptability of short-duration or intermittent exposure scenarios. Descriptions of when and how toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic aspects need to be taken into consideration are also presented. The framework incorporates the use of TRVs based on exposure periods as similar as possible to the "actual" exposure periods and application of dose averaging under limited, specified conditions. This framework has been developed to aid in improving the scientific basis for the evaluation of short-duration and intermittent exposures in a variety of settings. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Surgical wound dehiscence: a conceptual framework for patient assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandy-Hodgetts, Kylie; Carville, Keryln; Leslie, Gavin D

    2018-03-02

    This paper presents a conceptual framework which outlines the risk factors associated with surgical wound dehiscence (SWD) as identified in the literature. The purpose for the development of the conceptual framework was to derive an evidence-based, informed understanding of factors associated with SWD, in order to inform a programme of research on the aetiology and potential risk factors of SWD. Incorporated within the patient-centric conceptual framework are patient related comorbidities, intraoperative and postoperative risk factors related to SWD. These are categorised as either 'mechanical' or 'physiological mechanisms' posited to influence these relationships. The use of the conceptual model for assessment of patients has particular clinical relevance for identification of risk and the management of patients in the pre-, intra- and postoperative period.

  1. Development of a framework based on an ecosystem services approach for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk assessment of pesticides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Nienstedt, Karin M.; Brock, T. C. M.

    2012-01-01

    General protection goals for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of plant protection products are stated in European legislation but specific protection goals (SPGs) are often not precisely defined. These are however crucial for designing appropriate risk assessment schemes. The process...... followed by the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) as well as examples of resulting SPGs obtained so far for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is presented. The ecosystem services approach was used as an overarching...... and geographical scale of the effect, and the degree of certainty that the specified level of effect will not be exceeded. In general, to ensure ecosystem services, taxa representative for the key drivers identified need to be protected at the population level. However, for some vertebrates and species that have...

  2. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  3. Effective integrated frameworks for assessing mining sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virgone, K M; Ramirez-Andreotta, M; Mainhagu, J; Brusseau, M L

    2018-05-28

    The objectives of this research are to review existing methods used for assessing mining sustainability, analyze the limited prior research that has evaluated the methods, and identify key characteristics that would constitute an enhanced sustainability framework that would serve to improve sustainability reporting in the mining industry. Five of the most relevant frameworks were selected for comparison in this analysis, and the results show that there are many commonalities among the five, as well as some disparities. In addition, relevant components are missing from all five. An enhanced evaluation system and framework were created to provide a more holistic, comprehensive method for sustainability assessment and reporting. The proposed framework has five components that build from and encompass the twelve evaluation characteristics used in the analysis. The components include Foundation, Focus, Breadth, Quality Assurance, and Relevance. The enhanced framework promotes a comprehensive, location-specific reporting approach with a concise set of well-defined indicators. Built into the framework is quality assurance, as well as a defined method to use information from sustainability reports to inform decisions. The framework incorporates human health and socioeconomic aspects via initiatives such as community-engaged research, economic valuations, and community-initiated environmental monitoring.

  4. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  5. Das COSO Enterprise Risk Management-Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Ruud, Flemming; Reichert, Felix

    2007-01-01

    Der Verwaltungsrat und die Geschäftsleitung tragen die Verantwortung, ein Internes Kontrollsystem (IKS) im Unternehmen auszugestalten. Ab dem Geschäftsjahr 2008 wird die Existenz eines IKS durch den externen Revisor geprüft (Art. 728a, 728b revOR). Auch sind im Anhang Angaben über die Durchführung einer Risikobeurteilung zu publizieren (Art. 663b revOR). Das Enterprise-Risk-Management-Framework von COSO (COSO ERM) kann als Führungsinstrument helfen, wichtige Chancen und Risiken zu erkennen...

  6. LANDSAFE: LANDING SITE RISK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE FRAMEWORK

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidt, Ralph; Bostelmann, Jonas; Cornet, Yves; Heipke, Christian; Philippe, Christian; Poncelet, Nadia; de Rosa, Diego; Vandeloise, Yannick

    2012-01-01

    The European Space Agency (ESA) is planning a Lunar Lander mission in the 2018 timeframe that will demonstrate precise soft landing at the polar regions of the Moon. To ensure a safe and successful landing a careful risk analysis has to be carried out. This is comprised of identifying favorable target areas and evaluating the surface conditions in these areas. Features like craters, boulders, steep slopes, rough surfaces and shadow areas have to be identified in order to assess the risk assoc...

  7. Framework for managing mycotoxin risks in the food industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Robert C; Ford, Randall M; Helander, Mary E; Marecki, Janusz; Natarajan, Ramesh; Ray, Bonnie

    2014-12-01

    We propose a methodological framework for managing mycotoxin risks in the food processing industry. Mycotoxin contamination is a well-known threat to public health that has economic significance for the food processing industry; it is imperative to address mycotoxin risks holistically, at all points in the procurement, processing, and distribution pipeline, by tracking the relevant data, adopting best practices, and providing suitable adaptive controls. The proposed framework includes (i) an information and data repository, (ii) a collaborative infrastructure with analysis and simulation tools, (iii) standardized testing and acceptance sampling procedures, and (iv) processes that link the risk assessments and testing results to the sourcing, production, and product release steps. The implementation of suitable acceptance sampling protocols for mycotoxin testing is considered in some detail.

  8. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  9. 74. Cardiovascular risk assessment for Saudi university employees and their families: Developing a framework for provision of an evidence-based cardiovascular disease preventative programme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Alzeidan

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs are the primary cause of death among adults, representing 46% of total mortality in 2014. This study’s objectives were to assess the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs, and calculate the cardiovascular risk (CVR among King Saud University employees and their families. Moreover, it aimed at assessing the possible effects of living in KSA on the heart health of expatriate employees and their families. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 4500 university employees and their families aged ⩾18 years old, using the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to surveillance of CVRFs. CVR was then calculated for participants using the Framingham Coronary Heart Risk Score calculator. The mean age of participants was 39.3 ± 13.4 years. The prevalence of CVRFs was as follows: low fruit/vegetable consumption of 10% risk to develop CVD within the following 10-years. Furthermore, this study showed that expatriates had significant negative effects on behavioural risk factors after residing in KSA, namely: high rate of physical inactivity, high consumption of fast food, low consumption of fruit and vegetable. However, there was no effect on the pattern of tobacco use. The prevalence of CVRFs is substantially high among the study population. To combat the future expected burden of CVDs, a proposed prevention programme for employees’ cardiovascular wellness is designed and recommended to be implemented and institutionalized within the university.

  10. 26. Cardiovascular risk assessment for Saudi university employees and their families: developing a framework for provision of an evidence-based cardiovascular disease preventative programme.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Alzeidan

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs are the primary cause of death among adults, representing 46% of total mortality in 2014. This study’s objectives were to assess the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs, and calculate the cardiovascular risk (CVR among King Saud University employees and their families. Moreover, it aimed at assessing the possible effects of living in KSA on the heart health of expatriate employees and their families.A cross-sectional study was conducted on 4500 university employees and their families aged ⩾18 years old, using the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to surveillance of CVRFs. CVR was then calculated for participants using the Framingham Coronary Heart Risk Score calculator. The mean age of participants was 39.3±13.4 years. The prevalence of CVRFs was as follows: low fruit/vegetable consumption of 10% risk to develop CVD within the following 10-years. Furthermore, this study showed that expatriates had significant negative effects on behavioural risk factors after residing in KSA, namely: high rate of physical inactivity, high consumption of fast food, low consumption of fruit and vegetable. However, there was no effect on the pattern of tobacco use. The prevalence of CVRFs is substantially high among the study population. To combat the future expected burden of CVDs, a proposed prevention programme for employees’ cardiovascular wellness is designed and recommended to be implemented and institutionalized within the university.

  11. Risk Management in IT Governance Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela GHEORGHE

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The concept of governance has an already old contour: the system by which business corporations are directed and controlled. The most praised principles regarding shareholder rights, transparency and board accountability now constitute the foundation for new tendencies evolved from such ground. Executive compensation, transparency and shareholder reporting are new issues attached to board responsibilities. Besides such almost negative approaches the board faces a more and more prominent role from risk management and IT governance perspective. Nowadays is generally acknowledged that the board is in charge for managing and controlling the risks to assets of the enterprises and business future. IT Governance has emerged as a support for corporate governance, as an important part of board’s striving efforts to perform better in a competition environment. These responsibilities, risk management and IT Governance, remain within the framework of old concept of corporate governance and are fed from its substance. The interaction between these concepts is the core interest of this research.IT Governance is defined as procedures and policies established in order to assure that the IT system of an organization sustains its goals and strategies. The management of the organisations face a new challenge: structural redefinition of the IT component in order to create plus value and to minimize IT risks through an efficient management of all IT resources of the organisation. The evolution of the present IT environment is a natural process according to which business environment should adapt.

  12. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  13. A Machine Learning Framework for Plan Payment Risk Adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sherri

    2016-12-01

    To introduce cross-validation and a nonparametric machine learning framework for plan payment risk adjustment and then assess whether they have the potential to improve risk adjustment. 2011-2012 Truven MarketScan database. We compare the performance of multiple statistical approaches within a broad machine learning framework for estimation of risk adjustment formulas. Total annual expenditure was predicted using age, sex, geography, inpatient diagnoses, and hierarchical condition category variables. The methods included regression, penalized regression, decision trees, neural networks, and an ensemble super learner, all in concert with screening algorithms that reduce the set of variables considered. The performance of these methods was compared based on cross-validated R 2 . Our results indicate that a simplified risk adjustment formula selected via this nonparametric framework maintains much of the efficiency of a traditional larger formula. The ensemble approach also outperformed classical regression and all other algorithms studied. The implementation of cross-validated machine learning techniques provides novel insight into risk adjustment estimation, possibly allowing for a simplified formula, thereby reducing incentives for increased coding intensity as well as the ability of insurers to "game" the system with aggressive diagnostic upcoding. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  14. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  15. Implementation of the Leaching Environmental Assessment Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    New leaching tests are available in the U.S. for developing more accurate source terms for use in fate and transport models. For beneficial use or disposal, the use of the leaching environmental assessment framework (LEAF) will provide leaching results that reflect field condit...

  16. The Assessment of Motivation within Maslow's Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haymes, Michael; Green, Logan

    1982-01-01

    Reports progress in the development of the Needsort, a research tool, for the assessment of the three developmentally earliest, within Maslow's framework, conative needs (physiological, safety, belongingness). Discusses item analyses, item selection methods, reliability studies, and validation studies across a broad range of populations. (Author)

  17. Integrating risk management and safety culture in a framework for risk informed decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, W.R.

    2009-01-01

    Operators and regulators of nuclear power plants agree on the importance of maintaining safety and controlling accident risks. Effective safety and risk management requires treatment of both technical and organizational components. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides tools for technical risk management. However, organizational factors are not treated in PRA, but are addressed using different approaches. To bring both components together, a framework of Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is needed. The objective tree structure of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is a promising approach to combine both elements. Effective collaboration involving regulatory and industry groups is needed to accomplish the integration. (author)

  18. A framework of risk-informed seismic safety evaluation of nuclear power plants in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondo, S.; Sakagami, M.; Hirano, M.; Shiba, M.

    2001-01-01

    A framework of risk-informed seismic design and safety evaluation of nuclear power plants is under consideration in Japan so as to utilize the progress in the seismic probabilistic safety assessment methodology. Issues resolved to introduce this framework are discussed after the concept, evaluation process and characteristics of the framework are described. (author)

  19. Development of a framework based on an ecosystem services approach for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk assessment of pesticides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nienstedt, Karin M.; Brock, Theo C.M.; Wensem, Joke van; Montforts, Mark; Hart, Andy; Aagaard, Alf; Alix, Anne; Boesten, Jos; Bopp, Stephanie K.; Brown, Colin; Capri, Ettore; Forbes, Valery; Köpp, Herbert; Liess, Matthias; Luttik, Robert; Maltby, Lorraine

    2012-01-01

    General protection goals for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of plant protection products are stated in European legislation but specific protection goals (SPGs) are often not precisely defined. These are however crucial for designing appropriate risk assessment schemes. The process followed by the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) as well as examples of resulting SPGs obtained so far for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is presented. The ecosystem services approach was used as an overarching concept for the development of SPGs, which will likely facilitate communication with stakeholders in general and risk managers in particular. It is proposed to develop SPG options for 7 key drivers for ecosystem services (microbes, algae, non target plants (aquatic and terrestrial), aquatic invertebrates, terrestrial non target arthropods including honeybees, terrestrial non-arthropod invertebrates, and vertebrates), covering the ecosystem services that could potentially be affected by the use of pesticides. These SPGs need to be defined in 6 dimensions: biological entity, attribute, magnitude, temporal and geographical scale of the effect, and the degree of certainty that the specified level of effect will not be exceeded. In general, to ensure ecosystem services, taxa representative for the key drivers identified need to be protected at the population level. However, for some vertebrates and species that have a protection status in legislation, protection may be at the individual level. To protect the provisioning and supporting services provided by microbes it may be sufficient to protect them at the functional group level. To protect biodiversity impacts need to be assessed at least at the scale of the watershed/landscape. - Research highlights: ► How to define specific protection goals (SPGs) for environmental risk assessment? ► The process uses the ecosystem services (ES

  20. INFORMATION SECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT USING EXISTING LEGAL AND METHODOLOGICAL BASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Trubei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article provides a survey of the existing regulatory framework for information security riskmanagement. Practical methods for information security risk and vulnerability assessment are proposed.

  1. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  2. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  3. 77 FR 56202 - Notification of an External Peer Review Meeting for the Draft Framework for Human Health Risk...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-12

    ... Meeting for the Draft Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making AGENCY: U.S... panel of experts to review the draft document, Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform... for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making will be held on October 9, 2012, from 9:00...

  4. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  5. Developing a water market readiness assessment framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheeler, Sarah Ann; Loch, Adam; Crase, Lin; Young, Mike; Grafton, R. Quentin

    2017-09-01

    Water markets are increasingly proposed as a demand-management strategy to deal with water scarcity. Water trading arrangements, on their own, are not about setting bio-physical limits to water-use. Nevertheless, water trading that mitigates scarcity constraints can assist regulators of water resources to keep water-use within limits at the lowest possible cost, and may reduce the cost of restoring water system health. While theoretically attractive, many practitioners have, at best, only a limited understanding of the practical usefulness of markets and how they might be most appropriately deployed. Using lessons learned from jurisdictions around the world where water markets have been implemented, this study attempts to fill the existing water market development gap and provide an initial framework (the water market readiness assessment (WMRA)) to describe the policy and administrative conditions/reforms necessary to enable governments/jurisdictions to develop water trading arrangements that are efficient, equitable and within sustainable limits. Our proposed framework consists of three key steps: 1) an assessment of hydrological and institutional needs; 2) a market evaluation, including assessment of development and implementation issues; and 3) the monitoring, continuous/review and assessment of future needs; with a variety of questions needing assessment at each stage. We apply the framework to three examples: regions in Australia, the United States and Spain. These applications indicate that WMRA can provide key information for water planners to consider on the usefulness of water trading processes to better manage water scarcity; but further practical applications and tests of the framework are required to fully evaluate its effectiveness.

  6. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  7. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  8. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  9. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  10. Incorporating Social Determinants into a Groundwater Risk Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, M.; Allen, D. M.; Journeay, M.; Korteling, B.

    2009-12-01

    The remediation of polluted groundwater is often very costly, therefore water managers utilize various proactive measures, such as wellhead protection planning, to prevent contamination events. With limited available resources, it is essential to prioritize where these measures are introduced; systematic and integrated methodologies of assessing risk to groundwater can be utilized for this prioritization. To quantify the resistance of the physical system to pollution, Aquifer Vulnerability is commonly mapped for the area of interest. This information is useful for focusing monitoring efforts and identifying data gaps, but is a relative measure of contaminant risk. To more accurately assess the probability of contamination, an inventory of hazards can be integrated with intrinsic vulnerability of the physical system. This Threat indicator links land-use with chemicals and quantifies the risk based on the toxicity and environmental fate of these substances. Local knowledge of the quantity stored and likelihood of release can be utilized to further assess these threats. Both of these steps form part of an existing frameworks for assessing risk to groundwater. In this study, a groundwater risk framework is developed and tested in two study areas; Pender Island and the Lower Fraser Valley in British Columbia, Canada. Enhancements of a basic groundwater risk framework include not only incorporating points sources such as septic systems, landfills and fuel storage, but also various social determinants of risk. These social determinants include the Resistance of a community, which represents the planning and protection initiatives designed to safeguard the resource. These include items such as land-use planning that consider groundwater vulnerability and best management practices enforced by local governments. The ability to recover following an event is the Capacity of a community; indicators include the presence or absence of spill response plans, treatment systems or an

  11. A Development Framework for Smart Cities Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafa Khudhair Al-Alwani

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A smart city is rising as an approach and strategy to reduce the troubles produced by rapid urbanization and the growth of urban population. Although, cities continue to develop and purify their social, economic and environmental goals along with the strategies to achieve them, this phenomenon has been discussed by little research yet. However, due to the requiring immediate action or attention for practical application of the principles of smart cities, city authorities, stakeholders and local communities need to know the current reality of their city and where development is being attained in their systems. Therefore, constructing a framework for smart cities assessment will help share or exchange the newcomer strong and weak points, and emphasize where actual development is taking place and update a plan for future developments. Moreover, this assessment is able to assist cities prioritizes actions. This paper developed a guiding assessment framework for smart cites that will help the creating, carefully choosing and priorities of crucial indicators. These indicators can then show the way to the smart cites performance assessment and monitoring. Drawing on the investigation of an extensive and wide collection of literature from a variety of disciplinary areas and based on the conceptual literature on smart cities, in addition to interviews this study identify a good tool to help recognizing of virtual achievement of smart city. Furthermore, it is significant to be taken into consideration in assessing smart city smartness level.

  12. Framework of nuclear safety and safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furuta, Kazuo

    2007-01-01

    Since enormous energy is released by nuclear chain reaction mainly as a form of radiation, a great potential risk accompanies utilization of nuclear energy. Safety has been continuously a critical issue therefore from the very beginning of its development. Though the framework of nuclear safety that has been established at an early developmental stage of nuclear engineering is still valid, more comprehensive approaches are required having experienced several events such as Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and JCO. This article gives a brief view of the most basic principles how nuclear safety is achieved, which were introduced and sophisticated in nuclear engineering but applicable also to other engineering domains in general. (author)

  13. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  14. Integrating process safety with molecular modeling-based risk assessment of chemicals within the REACH regulatory framework: benefits and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Amanda; Kazantzis, Nikolaos; Fishtik, Ilie; Wilcox, Jennifer

    2007-04-11

    Registration, evaluation and authorization of chemicals (REACH) represents a recent regulatory initiative by the European union commission to protect human health and the environment from potentially hazardous chemicals. Under REACH, all stakeholders must submit (thermo)physical, thermochemical, and toxicological data for certain chemicals. The commission's impact assessment studies estimate that the costs of REACH will be approximately 3-5 billion Euros. The present study advocates the systematic incorporation of computational chemistry and computer-assisted chemical risk assessment methods into REACH to reduce regulatory compliance costs. Currently powerful computer-aided ab initio techniques can be used to generate predictions of key properties of broad classes of chemicals, without resorting to costly experimentation and potentially hazardous testing. These data could be integrated into a centralized IT decision and compliance support system, and stored in a retrievable, easily communicable manner should new regulatory and/or production requirements necessitate the introduction of different uses of chemicals under different conditions. For illustration purposes, ab initio calculations are performed on heterocyclic nitrogen-containing compounds which currently serve as high energy density materials in the chemical industry. Since investigations of these compounds are still in their infancy, stability studies are imperative regarding their safe handling and storage, as well as registration under REACH.

  15. Integrating process safety with molecular modeling-based risk assessment of chemicals within the REACH regulatory framework: Benefits and future challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, Amanda; Kazantzis, Nikolaos; Fishtik, Ilie; Wilcox, Jennifer

    2007-01-01

    Registration, evaluation and authorization of chemicals (REACH) represents a recent regulatory initiative by the European union commission to protect human health and the environment from potentially hazardous chemicals. Under REACH, all stakeholders must submit (thermo)physical, thermochemical, and toxicological data for certain chemicals. The commission's impact assessment studies estimate that the costs of REACH will be approximately 3-5 billion Euros. The present study advocates the systematic incorporation of computational chemistry and computer-assisted chemical risk assessment methods into REACH to reduce regulatory compliance costs. Currently powerful computer-aided ab initio techniques can be used to generate predictions of key properties of broad classes of chemicals, without resorting to costly experimentation and potentially hazardous testing. These data could be integrated into a centralized IT decision and compliance support system, and stored in a retrievable, easily communicable manner should new regulatory and/or production requirements necessitate the introduction of different uses of chemicals under different conditions. For illustration purposes, ab initio calculations are performed on heterocyclic nitrogen-containing compounds which currently serve as high energy density materials in the chemical industry. Since investigations of these compounds are still in their infancy, stability studies are imperative regarding their safe handling and storage, as well as registration under REACH

  16. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  17. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  18. A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives. To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). Methods. The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001–2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. Results. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees’ data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Conclusions. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies. PMID:28892436

  19. A Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savoia, Elena; Lin, Leesa; Gamhewage, Gaya M

    2017-09-01

    To articulate a conceptual framework in support of evaluation activities in emergency risk communications (ERC). The framework proposed is based on a systematic review of the scientific literature (2001-2016) combined with data derived from a series of semistructured interviews with experts and practitioners in ERC, and it is designed to support local, national, and international public health organizations in implementing evaluation studies in ERC. We identified a list of ERC outcomes from the full-text review of 152 articles and categorized these into 3 groups, depending upon the level at which the outcome was measured: (1) information environment, (2) population, and (3) public health system. We analyzed interviewees' data from 18 interviews to identify practices and processes related to the effectiveness of ERC and included these as key structural components and processes in the developed evaluation framework. Researchers and public health practitioners interested in the evaluation of ERC can use the conceptual framework described in this article to guide the development of evaluation studies and methods for assessing communication outcomes related to public health emergencies.

  20. FIFRA Peer Review: Proposed Risk Assessment Methods Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    From September 11-14, 2012, EPA participated in a Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act Scientific Advisory Panel (SAP) meeting on a proposed pollinator risk assessment framework for determining the potential risks of pesticides to honey bees.

  1. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  2. Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) - A Project Assessment Framework in Support of Strategic Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depenbrock, Brett T.; Balint, Tibor S.; Sheehy, Jeffrey A.

    2014-01-01

    Research and development organizations that push the innovation edge of technology frequently encounter challenges when attempting to identify an investment strategy and to accurately forecast the cost and schedule performance of selected projects. Fast moving and complex environments require managers to quickly analyze and diagnose the value of returns on investment versus allocated resources. Our Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) tool facilitates decision making for NASA senior leadership to enable more strategic and consistent technology development investment analysis, beginning at implementation and continuing through the project life cycle. The framework takes an integrated approach by leveraging design principles of useability, feasibility, and viability and aligns them with methods employed by NASA's Independent Program Assessment Office for project performance assessment. The need exists to periodically revisit the justification and prioritization of technology development investments as changes occur over project life cycles. The framework informs management rapidly and comprehensively about diagnosed internal and external root causes of project performance.

  3. Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

  4. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  5. A Framework for the Identification of Men at Increased Risk for Prostate Cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roobol, Monique J.; Schroder, Fritz H.; Crawford, E. David; Freedland, Stephen J.; Sartor, A. Oliver; Fleshner, Neil; Andriole, Gerald L.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: We assessed the risk of prostate cancer over time, and the implications for screening strategies and potential risk reduction approaches to provide a framework for clinical use of this approach concordant with the use of prostate specific antigen as a marker of current prostate cancer risk.

  6. A Framework for the Identification of Men at Increased Risk for Prostate Cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roobol, Monique J.; Schroder, Fritz H.; Crawford, E. David; Freedland, Stephen J.; Sartor, A. Oliver; Fleshner, Neil; Andriole, Gerald L.

    Purpose: We assessed the risk of prostate cancer over time, and the implications for screening strategies and potential risk reduction approaches to provide a framework for clinical use of this approach concordant with the use of prostate specific antigen as a marker of current prostate cancer risk.

  7. Framework for Robustness Assessment of Timber Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical framework for the design and analysis of robustness of timber structures. This is actualized by a more4 frequent use of advanced types of timber structures with limited redundancy and serious consequences in the case of failure. Combined with increased requirements...... to efficiency in design and execution followed by increased risk of human errors has made the need of requirements to robustness of new structures essential. Further, the collapse of the Ballerup Super Arena, the bad Reichenhall Ice-Arena and a number of other structural systems during the last 10 years has...... increased the interest in robustness. Typically, modern structural design codes require that ‘the consequence of damages to structures should not be disproportional to the causes of the damages’. However, although the importance of robustness for structural design is widely recognized, the code requirements...

  8. Ecological Risk Assessment in Water Resource Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The US EPA published guidelines for the application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in the USA in 1998 (US EPA 1998). The process diagram derived by Murray and Claassen (1999) in an evaluation of the US EPA framework is discussed in the context of the South African National Water Act. The evaluation discusses ...

  9. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  10. Strength of Bond Covenants and Bond Assessment Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noel Yahanpath

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available We examine bond covenants of 29 New Zealand bond issues between 2001 and 2007.Results from the study indicate that protection provided for bondholders is weak and limited.On average, only 2-3 types of covenants are embedded with the issues and only 27% of thesecovenants provide full protection to the bondholders. However, bondholders are not compensated for taking the additional risk. We propose an alternative assessment framework that directly assesses the level of protection offered to bondholders. We calculate thecovenant quality score for the issues and classify them into four levels of protection: very high protection, moderate, low and very low. Recent legislative changes will go some way towards improving investor protection and confidence, but the effect is yet to be seen. This proposed scoring framework can be used by potential investors to complement the traditional credit ratings when making their investment decisions.

  11. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  12. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  13. A methodology for assessment seismic risk in PSAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jae, Moo Sung

    2001-01-01

    This paper suggested a new framework for assessing seismic risk in PSAs. The framework used the concepts of requirement and achievement in the reliability physics. The quantified correlation which is a function of the requirement variable (hazard curve) and the achievement variable (fragility curve) results in a quantity, the unconditional frequency of exceeding a damage lelvel. This framework can be applied to any other external safety assessment, such as Fire and Flood Risk in PSAs

  14. The Performativity of Risk Management Frameworks and Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neerup Themsen, Tim; Skærbæk, Peter

    2018-01-01

    This article examines the long-term dynamics among a best-practice risk management framework, risk management technologies and the translation of uncertainties into risks by using a longitudinal case study of a large mega-project. We show that the framework and technologies through the visual power...... of impure risks challenges the predictions of the framework causing a false sense of security for the project objectives, and that the continuous readjustment of technologies, in particular, is necessary to ensure the long-term realisation of these predictions. Finally, this article contributes...... of inscriptions and the purifying work of risk consultants as experts establish the boundaries of the forms of uncertainties that are accepted and included as risks. We term the accepted and included risks ‘pure risks’ and the risks excluded after disagreement ‘impure risks’. We also show that the construction...

  15. A framework and methods for incorporating gender-related issues in wildlife risk assessment: gender-related differences in metal levels and other contaminants as a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Joanna

    2007-05-01

    Gender plays a role in the genetics, physiology, morphology, and behavior of organisms, and thus influences the uptake, fate, and effects of contaminants in organisms. There are a number of chemical analysis tools, as well as biological approaches to understanding the influence of gender on contaminant levels and effects in wildlife. Biological approaches occur at all levels, from mutagenesis, gene expression and biochemistry, to physiology, morphology and development, to pathology and behavior. Information on the effects of gender at all these levels is essential for model building, risk assessment, and developing biomonitoring plans. Gender influences both internal and external fate and effects. However, bioaccumulation and effects cannot occur without exposure, which is mediated by behavior, bioavailability, bioaccessibility, and absorption. Gender influences a number of individual features (size, nutrition, genetics, hormones), that in turn affect niche differentiation, leading back to differences in exposure and susceptibility. Both sexes have a variety of methods of ridding the body of contaminants, through the bile, urine, exhaled air, and sloughing of epidermal structures (skin, hair, feathers). Females can also rid their body of contaminants through egg contents and egg shells, or mammals by transfer to the developing fetus and through breast milk. The availability of contaminant data in wildlife depends partly on the ease of identification of the sexes by either external or internal examination. Thus, there are more data on contaminant levels in birds and mammals than in fish. Surprisingly, metal levels are not uniformly low in females, even when they are morphologically smaller than males. For 43 studies of metals in vertebrates, females had higher levels in 30 cases where there were significant differences (and males were higher in only 14 cases). Females usually had higher levels of mercury than males. Review of the literature suggests that authors

  16. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  17. System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Adam David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mohagheghi, Amir H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Cohn, Brian [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Osborn, Douglas M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Katherine A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); DeMenno, Mercy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Thomas, Maikael A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Parks, Ethan Rutledge [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Parks, Mancel Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jeantete, Brian A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-09-01

    In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) and system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.

  18. Stalking: A Multidimensional Framework for Assessment and Safety Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, T K; Walker, Robert

    2015-09-03

    Despite the high prevalence of stalking and the risk of harm it poses to victims, arrest rates, prosecutions, and convictions for stalking continue to be low in the United States. The overall goal of this article is to introduce a multidimensional framework of stalking that adds to the current literature by (1) providing a conceptual framework consistent with legal elements of many stalking statutes to facilitate assessment, communication, documentation, and safety planning for stalking several victims; (2) introducing a more systematic way of assessing course of conduct and the context of fear in stalking situations in order to increase the understanding of cumulative fear for stalking victims; (3) emphasizing the aspects of stalking harm that go beyond violence and that show how harm from stalking accumulates over time including life sabotage; and (4) discussing 12 risk factors derived from the overall multidimensional framework that can be used to describe the big picture of stalking and to facilitate safety planning for victims. Implications for future research are discussed. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  20. Comparative Human Health Impact Assessment of Engineered Nanomaterials in the Framework of Life Cycle Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransman, Wouter; Buist, Harrie; Kuijpers, Eelco; Walser, Tobias; Meyer, David; Zondervan-van den Beuken, Esther; Westerhout, Joost; Klein Entink, Rinke H; Brouwer, Derk H

    2017-07-01

    For safe innovation, knowledge on potential human health impacts is essential. Ideally, these impacts are considered within a larger life-cycle-based context to support sustainable development of new applications and products. A methodological framework that accounts for human health impacts caused by inhalation of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) in an indoor air environment has been previously developed. The objectives of this study are as follows: (i) evaluate the feasibility of applying the CF framework for NP exposure in the workplace based on currently available data; and (ii) supplement any resulting knowledge gaps with methods and data from the life cycle approach and human risk assessment (LICARA) project to develop a modified case-specific version of the framework that will enable near-term inclusion of NP human health impacts in life cycle assessment (LCA) using a case study involving nanoscale titanium dioxide (nanoTiO 2 ). The intent is to enhance typical LCA with elements of regulatory risk assessment, including its more detailed measure of uncertainty. The proof-of-principle demonstration of the framework highlighted the lack of available data for both the workplace emissions and human health effects of ENMs that is needed to calculate generalizable characterization factors using common human health impact assessment practices in LCA. The alternative approach of using intake fractions derived from workplace air concentration measurements and effect factors based on best-available toxicity data supported the current case-by-case approach for assessing the human health life cycle impacts of ENMs. Ultimately, the proposed framework and calculations demonstrate the potential utility of integrating elements of risk assessment with LCA for ENMs once the data are available. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  2. Supply Chain Risk Management and Frameworks in the UK Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, Ratanak

    2011-01-01

    This research aims to study the supply chain risk management in the retail industry. The risen in level of risks in the supply chain and the increasing role of retailers in the supply chain have driven this research to be conducted. Four important objectives of this research are: to identify and categorise retail supply chain risks, to present which principal risks have been concerned by most retailers, to build the supply chain risk mitigation framework in the retail supply chain, and to d...

  3. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  4. [Fundamentally new electromagnetic pollution and the lack of adequate regulatory framework--on the risk assessment (analysis of modern domestic and foreign data)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigorev, Yu G

    2014-01-01

    On the base of the study of the numerous experimental and epidemiological studies electromagnetic radiation (EMR) of mobile communications were found to adversely affect on the health of the population. Analysis of the influence of radio frequency (RF) radiation from mobile phones (MPs) on the brain of users showed that this organ body is most exposed to this radiation, especially in children. As a result of the performed research there were recorded functional changes in children--MPs users: undue fatiguability (39.7%), decreased performance in the school and at home (50.7%), weakening of the stability of voluntary attention (productivity--14.3%, accuracy 19.4%) and semantic memory (accuracy--19.4% increase in the time--30.1%). In addition, a marked change in the rate of auditory- motor response (55.5%), and disturbances of phonemic perception have been noted. The existing legal framework on the influence of EMR on human health was shown not fully to meet the hygiene requirements in connection with the absence of her normative parameters which determine the impact of complicately modulated radiation from MPs and base stations. The need for additional research on the influence of the modulated RF EMR on the human body and creation of a regulatory framework taking into account the sum of biological effects, especially on the critical organ of human--brain is substantiated by the author. When creating a regulatory framework it must be taken into account the scientific beliefs on the possible development of long-term brain pathologies under the combined effect of EMF, especially in children.

  5. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  6. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  7. Risk and train control : a framework for analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    This report develops and demonstrates a framework for examining the effects of various train control strategies on some of the major risks of railroad operations. Analysis of hypothetical 1200-mile corridor identified the main factors that increase r...

  8. Understanding and acknowledging the ice throw hazard - consequences for regulatory frameworks, risk perception and risk communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bredesen, R. E.; Drapalik, M.; Butt, B.

    2017-11-01

    This study attempts to provide the necessary framework required to make sufficiently informed decisions regarding the safety implications of ice throw. The framework elaborates on how to cope with uncertainties, and how to describe results in a meaningful and useful manner to decision makers. Moreover, it points out the moral, judicial and economical obligations of wind turbine owners such that they are able to minimize risk of ice throws as much as possible. Building on the strength of knowledge as well as accounting for uncertainty are also essential in enabling clear communication with stakeholders on the most important/critical/vital issues. With increasing empirical evidence, one can assign a higher confidence level on the expert opinions on safety. Findings regarding key uncertainties of ice risk assessments are presented here to support the ongoing IEA Wind Task 19's work on creating the international guidelines on ice risk assessment due in 2018 (Krenn et al. 2017)[1-6]. In addition the study also incorporates the findings of a Norwegian information project, which focuses on the ice throw hazard for the public (Bredesen, Flage, Butt, Winterwind 2018)[7-9]. This includes measures to reduce damage and hazard from wind turbines for the general public. Recent theory of risk assessment questions the use of risk criteria for achieving optimum risk reduction and favours the use of the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle. Given the several practical problems associated with the ALARA approach (e.g. judicial realization), a joint approach, which uses a minimum set of criteria as well as the obligation to meet ALARA is suggested (associated with acceptable cost). The actual decision about acceptance criteria or obligations is a societal one, thus suggestions can be made at best. Risk acceptance, risk perception and risk communication are inextricably linked and should thus never be considered separately. Risk communication can shape risk perception

  9. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  10. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  11. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  12. Enterprise Risk Management : Das COSO-ERM-Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Ruud, Flemming; Sommer, Katerina

    2006-01-01

    Das Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) ist ein wichtiges Element der Corporate Governance. Es kann Unternehmen bei der Zielerreichung unterstützen, indem es hilft, Chancen und Risiken zu erkennen und geeignete Massnahmen zu ergreifen. Die Weiterentwicklung des Internal-Control-Framework zu einem Enterprise-Risk-Management-Framework, dessen Grund sätze, Ziele und Komponenten, dessen Nutzen und Grenzen sowie die Unterschiede zum ursprünglichen COSO-ICFramework ist Gegenstand dieser Ausführunge...

  13. Entrprise Risk Management : Das COSO-ERM-Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Ruud, Flemming; Sommer, Katerina

    2006-01-01

    Das Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) ist ein wichtiges Element der Corporate Governance. Es kann Unternehmen bei der Zielerreichung unterstützen, indem es hilft, Chancen und Risiken zu erkennen und geeignete Massnahmen zu ergreifen. Die Weiterentwicklung des Internal-Control-Framework zu einem Enterprise-Risk-Management-Framework, dessen Grund sätze, Ziele und Komponenten, dessen Nutzen und Grenzen sowie die Unterschiede zum ursprünglichen COSO-ICFramework ist Gegenstand dieses Artikels.

  14. The science of adaptation. A framework for assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smit, B.; Burton, I.; Street, R.; Klein, R.J.T.; Maciver, D.C.

    1999-01-01

    This paper outlines what is meant by 'adaptation' to climate change, and how it might be addressed in the IPCC Assessments. Two roles of adaptation in the climate change field are identified: adaptation as part of impact assessment (where the key question is: what adaptations are likely?), and adaptation as part of the policy response (where the central question is: what adaptations are recommended?). The concept of adaptation has been adopted in several fields including climate impact assessment and policy development, risk management, and natural hazards research. A framework for systematically defining adaptations is based on three questions: (1) adaptation to what? (2) who or what adapts? and (3) how does adaptation occur? The paper demonstrates that, for adaptation purposes, climate extremes and variability are integral parts of climate change, along with shifts in mean conditions. Attributes for differentiating adaptations include purposefulness, timing, temporal and spatial scope, effects, form and performance. The framework provides a guide for the treatment of adaptation in the IPCC assessments, both in the assessment of impacts and in the evaluation of adaptive policy options. 64 refs

  15. A macroeconomic framework for quantifying systemic risk

    OpenAIRE

    He, Zhiguo; Krishnamurthy, Arvind

    2012-01-01

    Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation. We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to systemic risk states. The model a...

  16. Assessing sustainable remediation frameworks using sustainability principles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ridsdale, D Reanne; Noble, Bram F

    2016-12-15

    The remediation industry has grown exponentially in recent decades. International organizations of practitioners and remediation experts have developed several frameworks for integrating sustainability into remediation projects; however, there has been limited attention to how sustainability is approached and operationalized in sustainable remediation frameworks and practices - or whether sustainability plays any meaningful role at all in sustainable remediation. This paper examines how sustainability is represented in remediation frameworks and the guidance provided for practical application. Seven broad sustainability principles and review criteria are proposed and applied to a sample of six international remediation frameworks. Not all review criteria were equally satisfied and none of the frameworks fully met all criteria; however, the best performing frameworks were those identified as sustainability remediation frameworks. Intra-generational equity was addressed by all frameworks. Integrating social, economic and biophysical components beyond triple-bottom-line indicators was explicitly addressed only by the sustainable remediation frameworks. No frameworks provided principle- or rule-based guidance for dealing with trade-offs in sustainability decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  18. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

  19. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxiao Ji

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1 formulation of risk assessment hierarchy; (2 representation of both qualitative and quantitative information; (3 elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities; (4 aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5 quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.

  20. Managing Risks in Distributed Software Projects: An Integrative Framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Persson, John Stouby; Mathiassen, Lars; Boeg, Jesper

    2009-01-01

    techniques into an integrative framework for managing risks in distributed contexts. Subsequent implementation of a Web-based tool helped us refine the framework based on empirical evaluation of its practical usefulness.We conclude by discussing implications for both research and practice.......Software projects are increasingly geographically distributed with limited face-to-face interaction between participants. These projects face particular challenges that need carefulmanagerial attention. While risk management has been adopted with success to address other challenges within software...... development, there are currently no frameworks available for managing risks related to geographical distribution. On this background, we systematically review the literature on geographically distributed software projects. Based on the review, we synthesize what we know about risks and risk resolution...

  1. Nutrition-Related Cancer Prevention Cognitions and Behavioral Intentions: Testing the Risk Perception Attitude Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Helen W.; Beckjord, Ellen Burke; Finney Rutten, Lila J.; Hesse, Bradford W.

    2008-01-01

    This study tested whether the risk perception attitude framework predicted nutrition-related cancer prevention cognitions and behavioral intentions. Data from the 2003 Health Information National Trends Survey were analyzed to assess respondents' reported likelihood of developing cancer (risk) and perceptions of whether they could lower their…

  2. The SAFE FOODS Risk Analysis Framework suitable for GMOs? A case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, H.A.; Davies, H.V.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes the current EU regulatory framework for risk analysis of genetically modified (GM) crop cultivation and market introduction of derived food/feed. Furthermore the risk assessment strategies for GM crops and derived food/feed as designed by the European Food Safety Authority

  3. Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions

  4. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  5. Framework for a comparative environmental assessment of drilling fluids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meinhold, A.F.

    1998-11-01

    During the drilling of an oil or gas well, drilling fluid (or mud) is used to maintain well control and to remove drill cuttings from the hole. In response to effluent limitation guidelines promulgated by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for discharge of drilling wastes offshore, alternatives to water and oil-based muds have been developed. These synthetic-based muds (SBMs) are more efficient than water-based muds (WBMs) for drilling difficult and complex formation intervals and have lower toxicity and smaller environmental impacts than diesel or conventional mineral oil-based muds (OBMs). A third category of drilling fluids, derived from petroleum and called enhanced mineral oils (EMOs), also have these advantages over the traditionally used OBMs and WBMs. EPA recognizes that SBMs and EMOs are new classes of drilling fluids, but their regulatory status is unclear. To address this uncertainty, EPA is following an innovative presumptive rulemaking process that will develop final regulations for SBM discharges offshore in less than three years. This report develops a framework for a comparative risk assessment for the discharge of SBMs and EMOs, to help support a risk-based, integrated approach to regulatory decision making. The framework will help identify potential impacts and benefits associated with the use of SBMs, EMOs, WBMs, and OBMs; identify areas where additional data are needed; and support early decision-making in the absence of complete data. As additional data becomes available, the framework can support a full quantitative comparative assessment. Detailed data are provided to support a comparative assessment in the areas of occupational and public health impacts.

  6. Characterizing the Benefits of Seismic Isolation for Nuclear Structures: A Framework for Risk-Based Decision Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolisetti, Chandrakanth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Yu, Chingching [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Whittaker, Andrew [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kosbab, Ben [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-11-01

    This report provides a framework for assessing the benefits of seismic isolation and exercises the framework on a Generic Department of Energy Nuclear Facility (GDNF). These benefits are (1) reduction in the risk of unacceptable seismic performance and a dramatic reduction in the probability of unacceptable performance at beyond-design basis shaking, and (2) a reduction in capital cost at sites with moderate to high seismic hazard. The framework includes probabilistic risk assessment and estimates of overnight capital cost for the GDNF.

  7. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  8. An Evaluation Use Framework and Empirical Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, Laura R.; Gorzalski, Lindsey M.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Research on evaluation use focuses on putting evaluation recommendations into practice. Prior theoretical research proposes varied frameworks for understanding the use (or lack) of program evaluation results. Purpose: Our purpose is to create and test a single, integrated framework for understanding evaluation use. This article relies…

  9. ECTA/DaSy Framework Self-Assessment Comparison Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Center for IDEA Early Childhood Data Systems (DaSy), 2016

    2016-01-01

    The Self-Assessment Comparison (SAC) Tool is for state Part C and Section 619/Preschool programs to use to assess changes in the implementation of one or more components of the ECTA System Framework and/or subcomponenets of the DaSy Data System Framework. It is a companion to the ECTA/DaSy Framework Self-Assessment. Key features of the SAC are…

  10. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  11. Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.

    1998-01-01

    Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics

  12. A Framework for Assessment of Aviation Safety Technology Portfolios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Sharon M.; Reveley, Mary S.

    2014-01-01

    The programs within NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) conduct research and development to improve the national air transportation system so that Americans can travel as safely as possible. NASA aviation safety systems analysis personnel support various levels of ARMD management in their fulfillment of system analysis and technology prioritization as defined in the agency's program and project requirements. This paper provides a framework for the assessment of aviation safety research and technology portfolios that includes metrics such as projected impact on current and future safety, technical development risk and implementation risk. The paper also contains methods for presenting portfolio analysis and aviation safety Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) output results to management using bubble charts and quantitative decision analysis techniques.

  13. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  14. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  15. towards a theory-based multi-dimensional framework for assessment in mathematics: The "SEA" framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anku, Sitsofe E.

    1997-09-01

    Using the reform documents of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) (NCTM, 1989, 1991, 1995), a theory-based multi-dimensional assessment framework (the "SEA" framework) which should help expand the scope of assessment in mathematics is proposed. This framework uses a context based on mathematical reasoning and has components that comprise mathematical concepts, mathematical procedures, mathematical communication, mathematical problem solving, and mathematical disposition.

  16. Seismic risk evaluation within the technology neutral framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, B.C.; Apostolakis, G.E.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► We examine seismic risk within the Technology Neutral Framework (TNF). ► We find that the risk goals in the TNF to be stringent compared with current goals. ► We note that the current fleet reactors would not meet the TNF goals. ► We recommend that an initiating frequency cutoff of 10 −5 per year be use in evaluating seismic risk. - Abstract: The NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has proposed a risk-informed and performance-based licensing process that is referred to as the technology neutral framework (TNF). In the TNF, licensing basis events (LBEs), determined using probabilistic risk assessment methods, take the place of design basis accidents. These LBEs are constructed by grouping together accident sequences with similar phenomenology. All event sequences with a mean frequency greater than 10 −7 per reactor year are to be considered as part of the licensing basis. Imposing such a limit would require that earthquakes with a mean return period of ten million years be considered as part of the licensing basis. It is difficult to get seismic hazards (i.e., ground accelerations) from expert seismologists at such low frequencies. This is because it is difficult or impossible to confidently say what the seismic hazard might be at these extremely low frequencies. A linear extrapolation in log-log space of hazard curves at the Clinton site down to 10 −7 per year leads to a peak ground acceleration of about 4.5 g. A Weibull distribution is also used to fit the curve leading to a peak ground acceleration of about 2.6 g. These extrapolations demonstrate the extreme nature of rare earthquakes. Even when seismic isolation is implemented, the TNF goal is not met. The problem appears to be that there is no limit on initiating event frequency in the TNF. Demonstrating that a design meets the goals of the TNF would be nearly impossible. A frequency limit for earthquakes could be imposed at a frequency of about 10 −5 per year to focus on

  17. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  18. Considering Resilience: Steps Towards an Assessment Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Kallaos

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available As threats from climate change related hazards increase in cities around the world, communities are faced with an urgent requirement for self-evaluation. It is essential to expose and assess potential hazards facing cities, as well as to consider potential impacts and responses. While the promotion of efficiency and promise of protection have been common approaches to hazards in the past, recent events have exposed weaknesses in existing tactics. It has also become more apparent that existing mitigation efforts will be insufficient to prevent some level of climate change, associated hazards, and impacts. Complete protection against all threats is not only impossible but potentially hazardous, as extreme or unanticipated events can exceed the capacity for defence, potentially resulting in catastrophic failures. From this realization of the fallibility of the existing paradigm, resilience has emerged as a useful concept for framing the response of cities to an expanding collection of potential threats. The aim of this article is to consider resilience as it applies to cities, their architecture and infrastructure systems, subsystems, and components, as well as their inhabitants. Resilience characteristics are identified and considered in order to inform the eventual development of a resilience framework with which to assess architecture and infrastructure resilience. This state of the art is instrumental to determine the conditions under which architecture and infrastructure resilience can be defined and measured, in order to guide the consideration of attributes and determine suitable criteria to select and elaborate indicators to help guide future actions and investments.   Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm

  19. A proposed operational risk management framework for small and medium enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micheline J. Naude

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The gap between small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs and large businesses that perform risk assessment is significant. SMEs continuously face many operational risks and uncertainties in their daily operations, and these risks threaten to reduce productivity, increase costs and reduce profits. Aim: The purpose of this article was to develop an operational risk management framework that SMEs can use to identify and analyse risks in their operations and take corrective actions to mitigate these risks. Setting: Small and medium-sized enterprises in South Africa do not view risk management as a key component of organisational success, despite evidence that businesses that adopt risk management strategies are more likely to survive and grow. Methods: The article is exploratory in nature, and a conceptual analysis approach was used to formulate the framework. This study reviewed relevant literature sources on risk published between 2002 and 2017. Results: The four process steps of risk management were used as a reference point and form the foundation for the operational risk management framework. The categories of operational; marketing; technical and financial risks were identified from a review of available literature on risk management. Conclusion: There is a dearth of research that deals with operational risk management frameworks for SMEs. The expected contribution of this article, therefore, is twofold: firstly, it is envisaged that managers or owners of SMEs could use the proposed framework as a tool to appraise and minimise their operational risks; secondly, it will add to the current body of knowledge on risk appraisal for SMEs.

  20. A surety engineering framework to reduce cognitive systems risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caudell, Thomas P. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Peercy, David Eugene; Caldera, Eva O. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Shaneyfelt, Wendy L.

    2008-12-01

    Cognitive science research investigates the advancement of human cognition and neuroscience capabilities. Addressing risks associated with these advancements can counter potential program failures, legal and ethical issues, constraints to scientific research, and product vulnerabilities. Survey results, focus group discussions, cognitive science experts, and surety researchers concur technical risks exist that could impact cognitive science research in areas such as medicine, privacy, human enhancement, law and policy, military applications, and national security (SAND2006-6895). This SAND report documents a surety engineering framework and a process for identifying cognitive system technical, ethical, legal and societal risks and applying appropriate surety methods to reduce such risks. The framework consists of several models: Specification, Design, Evaluation, Risk, and Maturity. Two detailed case studies are included to illustrate the use of the process and framework. Several Appendices provide detailed information on existing cognitive system architectures; ethical, legal, and societal risk research; surety methods and technologies; and educing information research with a case study vignette. The process and framework provide a model for how cognitive systems research and full-scale product development can apply surety engineering to reduce perceived and actual risks.

  1. Framework for Sustainability Assessment by Transportation Agencies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramani, Tara Lakshmi; Zietsman, Josias; Gudmundsson, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    and outcomes. The framework development process was an extension of findings from literature review, case studies, and interviews conducted as part of ongoing research under the NCHRP project Sustainability Performance Measures for State Departments of Transportation and Other Transportation Agencies...

  2. Categorization framework to aid exposure assessment of nanomaterials in consumer products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Michelson, Evan S.; Kamper, Anja

    2008-01-01

    Exposure assessment is crucial for risk assessment for nanomaterials. We propose a framework to aid exposure assessment in consumer products. We determined the location of the nanomaterials and the chemical identify of the 580 products listed in the inventory maintained by the Woodrow Wilson Inte...

  3. A Systematical Framework of Schedule Risk Management for Power Grid Engineering Projects’ Sustainable Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rao Rao

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Schedule risks are the main threat for high efficiency of schedule management in power grid engineering projects (PGEP. This paper aims to build a systematical framework for schedule risk management, which consists of three dimensions, including the personnel dimension, method dimension and time dimension, namely supervisory personnel, management methods and the construction process, respectively. Responsibilities of staff with varied functions are discussed in the supervisory personnel part, and six stages and their corresponding 40 key works are ensured as the time dimension. Risk identification, analysis, evaluation and prevention together formed the method dimension. Based on this framework, 222 schedule risks occur in the whole process of PGEPs are identified via questionnaires and expert interviews. Then, the relationship among each risk is figured out based on the Interpretative Structure Model (ISM method and the impact of each risk is quantitatively assessed by establishing evaluation system. The actual practice of the proposed framework is verified through the analysis of the first stage of a PGEP. Finally, the results show that this framework of schedule risk management is meaningful for improving the efficiency of project management. It provides managers with a clearer procedure with which to conduct risk management, helps them to timely detect risks and prevent risks from occurring. It is also easy for managers to judge the influence level of each risk, so they can take actions based on the level of each risk’s severity. Overall, it is beneficial for power grid enterprises to achieve a sustainable management.

  4. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  5. Supply Chain Risk Management: A Conceptual Framework and Empirical Validation

    OpenAIRE

    Sumeet Gupta; Mark Goh; Robert De-Souza; Fanwen Meng; Miti Garg

    2014-01-01

    Increasing globalization of the supply chains is making them increasingly vulnerable to various supply chain risks. Effective management of these risks is essential to prevent minor as well as major risks that may occur in day-to-day operations of the firm. In this paper an attempt is made to bring out a schema for analyzing supply chain risks faced by the firm and develop a risk management action framework that would serve as a guide for practitioners to identify the level at which their fir...

  6. Risk avoidance versus risk reduction: a framework and segmentation profile for understanding adolescent sexual activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Christopher D; Tanner, John F; Raymond, Mary Anne

    2004-01-01

    The teen birthrate in the United States is twice that of other industrialized nations. Adolescents in the U.S. are among high-risk groups for HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases. As a result, the Department of Health and Human Services changed its policy on the promotion of abstinence to teenagers from a focus on a risk reduction strategy to a focus on a risk avoidance strategy. In order to create more effective risk avoidance as well as risk reduction campaigns, this study proposes a framework to illustrate the distinction that teens make between spontaneous sexual activity and planned sexual activity, as well as those teens that make a commitment to abstinence versus abstinence by default. Furthermore, this study classifies teens into three behavior segments (abstemious, promiscuous and monogamous) and then assesses specific differences that exist within these groups relative to their attitudes and perceptions concerning abstinence, sexual activity, contraception, fear and norms. This change in focus from a risk reduction to a risk avoidance strategy has important implications for social marketing, public policy and marketing theory.

  7. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  8. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  9. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  10. Comparative risk assessments for Guadeloupe: earthquakes and storm surge

    OpenAIRE

    Réveillère , Arnaud; Monfort , Daniel; Lecacheux , Sophie; Grisanti , Ludovic; Muller , Héloise; Bertil , Didier; Rohmer , Jérémy; Sedan , Olivier; Douglas , John; Baills , Audrey; Modaressi , Hormoz

    2012-01-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exi...

  11. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    , the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  12. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  13. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  14. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  17. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  18. A methodology for reviewing Probabilistic Risk Assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase. The value of this procedure comes from having a systematic framework for the PRA review. Practical constraints limit the time and qualified people needed for an adequate review. Having the established framework from this procedure as a starting point, reviewers can focus most of their attention on the accuracy and the completeness of the calculation. Time wasted at the start of the review is reduced by first using this procedure to sort through the technical details of the PRA and to reconstruct the risk estimate from dominant contributions

  19. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  20. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  1. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  2. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  3. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  4. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  5. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  6. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  7. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  8. Risk assessment and the social response to nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1977-01-01

    A theoretical framework for risk assessment studies is presented. Methodologies from various disciplines can be used within this framework to allow a scientific approach to the understanding of complex interactions between technological and social systems. A pilot application of an attitude-formation model to examine the underlying determinants of groups for and against nuclear power is summarized. (author)

  9. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  10. Quantification of Technology Innovation Usinga Risk-Based Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Gerard E. Sleefe

    2010-01-01

    There is significant interest in achieving technology innovation through new product development activities. It is recognized, however, that traditional project management practices focused only on performance, cost, and schedule attributes, can often lead to risk mitigation strategies that limit new technology innovation. In this paper, a new approach is proposed for formally managing and quantifying technology innovation. This approach uses a risk-based framework that s...

  11. Framework for technical assessment in JR Maglev

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seki, Akio [Central Japan Railway Co., Tokyo (Japan); Akahoshi, Toru [Central Japan Railway Co., Tokyo (Japan); Furuki, Tsutomu [Railway Technical Research Inst., Tokyo (Japan)

    1995-12-31

    In the course of development of JR Maglev, various technical assessments are carried out at each stage of development by a system management group of a project team in order to achieve goals of development. For the purpose, guidelines for practicality assessment were prepared at design stage. It is now striven to make test plans necessary for the practicality assessment. This assessment will serve for those to be ultimately implemented by Ministry of Transport (MOT). This paper presents an overview of concepts, methods and procedures of the technical assessments especially focused on the practicality assessment in the development of JR Maglev. (orig.)

  12. A Framework for Assessing High School Students' Statistical Reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Shiau Wei; Ismail, Zaleha; Sumintono, Bambang

    2016-01-01

    Based on a synthesis of literature, earlier studies, analyses and observations on high school students, this study developed an initial framework for assessing students' statistical reasoning about descriptive statistics. Framework descriptors were established across five levels of statistical reasoning and four key constructs. The former consisted of idiosyncratic reasoning, verbal reasoning, transitional reasoning, procedural reasoning, and integrated process reasoning. The latter include describing data, organizing and reducing data, representing data, and analyzing and interpreting data. In contrast to earlier studies, this initial framework formulated a complete and coherent statistical reasoning framework. A statistical reasoning assessment tool was then constructed from this initial framework. The tool was administered to 10 tenth-grade students in a task-based interview. The initial framework was refined, and the statistical reasoning assessment tool was revised. The ten students then participated in the second task-based interview, and the data obtained were used to validate the framework. The findings showed that the students' statistical reasoning levels were consistent across the four constructs, and this result confirmed the framework's cohesion. Developed to contribute to statistics education, this newly developed statistical reasoning framework provides a guide for planning learning goals and designing instruction and assessments.

  13. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  14. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  15. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  16. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  17. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  18. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  19. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  20. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  1. Value Assessment Frameworks for HTA Agencies: The Organization of Evidence-Informed Deliberative Processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baltussen, R.M.; Jansen, M.P.M.; Bijlmakers, L.A.; Grutters, J.P.; Kluytmans, A.C.P.M.; Reuzel, R.P.B.; Tummers, M.J.; Wilt, G.J. van der

    2017-01-01

    Priority setting in health care has been long recognized as an intrinsically complex and value-laden process. Yet, health technology assessment agencies (HTAs) presently employ value assessment frameworks that are ill fitted to capture the range and diversity of stakeholder values and thereby risk

  2. A Scalable Distribution Network Risk Evaluation Framework via Symbolic Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kai; Liu, Jian; Liu, Kaipei; Tan, Tianyuan

    2015-01-01

    Background Evaluations of electric power distribution network risks must address the problems of incomplete information and changing dynamics. A risk evaluation framework should be adaptable to a specific situation and an evolving understanding of risk. Methods This study investigates the use of symbolic dynamics to abstract raw data. After introducing symbolic dynamics operators, Kolmogorov-Sinai entropy and Kullback-Leibler relative entropy are used to quantitatively evaluate relationships between risk sub-factors and main factors. For layered risk indicators, where the factors are categorized into four main factors – device, structure, load and special operation – a merging algorithm using operators to calculate the risk factors is discussed. Finally, an example from the Sanya Power Company is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed method. Conclusion Distribution networks are exposed and can be affected by many things. The topology and the operating mode of a distribution network are dynamic, so the faults and their consequences are probabilistic. PMID:25789859

  3. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  4. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  5. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  6. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  7. The Mutable Nature of Risk and Acceptability: A Hybrid Risk Governance Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Catherine Mei Ling

    2015-11-01

    This article focuses on the fluid nature of risk problems and the challenges it presents to establishing acceptability in risk governance. It introduces an actor-network theory (ANT) perspective as a way to deal with the mutable nature of risk controversies and the configuration of stakeholders. To translate this into a practicable framework, the article proposes a hybrid risk governance framework that combines ANT with integrative risk governance, deliberative democracy, and responsive regulation. This addresses a number of the limitations in existing risk governance models, including: (1) the lack of more substantive public participation throughout the lifecycle of a project; (2) hijacking of deliberative forums by particular groups; and (3) the treatment of risk problems and their associated stakeholders as immutable entities. The framework constitutes a five-stage process of co-selection, co-design, co-planning, and co-regulation to facilitate the co-production of collective interests and knowledge, build capacities, and strengthen accountability in the process. The aims of this article are twofold: conceptually, it introduces a framework of risk governance that accounts for the mutable nature of risk problems and configuration of stakeholders. In practice, this article offers risk managers and practitioners of risk governance a set of procedures with which to operationalize this conceptual approach to risk and stakeholder engagement. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. A Framework for Assessing Reading Comprehension of Geometric Construction Texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Kai-Lin; Li, Jian-Lin

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates one issue related to reading mathematical texts by presenting a two-dimensional framework for assessing reading comprehension of geometric construction texts. The two dimensions of the framework were formulated by modifying categories of reading literacy and drawing on key elements of geometric construction texts. Three…

  9. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  10. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  11. An Integrated Risk Framework for Gigawatt-scale Deployments of Renewable Energy: The U.S. Wind Energy Case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ram, B. [Energetics, Inc., Columbia, MD (United States)

    2010-04-01

    Assessing the potential environmental and human effects of deploying renewable wind energy requires a new way of evaluating potential environmental and human impacts. This paper explores an integrated risk framework for renewable wind energy siting decisionmaking.

  12. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  13. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  14. Creating a framework for the prioritization of biosecurity risks to the New Zealand dairy industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muellner, P; Hodges, D; Ahlstrom, C; Newman, M; Davidson, R; Pfeiffer, D; Marshall, J; Morley, C

    2018-03-25

    The New Zealand dairy sector relies on robust biosecurity measures to control and mitigate a wide range of threats to the industry. To optimize the prioritization of organisms and manage the risk they pose to the sector in a transparent and credible way, the Dairy Biosecurity Risk Evaluation Framework (D-BRiEF) was developed. This comprehensive framework was specifically designed for decision support, using a standardized approach to address the full spectrum of biosecurity threats to the sector, including exotic and endemic animal disease organisms, pest plants and insects. D-BRiEF is underpinned by three main processes, namely (i) hazard identification; (ii) multicriteria risk assessment; and (iii) communication for risk management. Expert knowledge and empirical data, including associated uncertainty, are harnessed in a standardized format. Results feed into a probability-impact model that was developed in close collaboration with dairy sector economists to provide overall comparative 10-year quantitative economic impact estimates for each assessed risk organism. A description of the overarching framework, which applies to diverse organism groups, is presented with detailed methodology on both endemic and exotic animal disease risk organisms. Examples of visual outputs are included, although actual ranking results are not reported due to industry confidentiality. D-BRiEF can provide a decision advantage to DairyNZ biosecurity risk managers and sector stakeholders by creating a transparent process that can be interrogated and updated at multiple levels to fully understand the layers of risk posed by different organisms. © 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  15. Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vegt, R G

    2018-02-26

    This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio-economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision-making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Risk assessment for federal regulatory decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payne, John H.; Medley, Terry L.

    1992-01-01

    This article discusses: 1. Purposes and history of risk assessment: application to biotechnology; 2. Framework in the United States for decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology; 3. Choosing from among potential approaches to assessment: a). exposure assessment does not equate to risk assessment: what are the hazards?; b). Setting risk assessment priorities; c). 'Quantitative' environmental and 'quantitative' ecological risk assessments; d). Ecological risk assessments based on biological and ecological principles. 4. The bases for good regulatory decisions

  17. Risk assessment for federal regulatory decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, John H; Medley, Terry L [Biotechnology, Biologics and Environmental Protection Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Hyattsville, MD (United States)

    1992-07-01

    This article discusses: 1. Purposes and history of risk assessment: application to biotechnology; 2. Framework in the United States for decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology; 3. Choosing from among potential approaches to assessment: a). exposure assessment does not equate to risk assessment: what are the hazards?; b). Setting risk assessment priorities; c). 'Quantitative' environmental and 'quantitative' ecological risk assessments; d). Ecological risk assessments based on biological and ecological principles. 4. The bases for good regulatory decisions.

  18. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  19. Quantitative risk assessment: an emerging tool for emerging foodborne pathogens.

    OpenAIRE

    Lammerding, A. M.; Paoli, G. M.

    1997-01-01

    New challenges to the safety of the food supply require new strategies for evaluating and managing food safety risks. Changes in pathogens, food preparation, distribution, and consumption, and population immunity have the potential to adversely affect human health. Risk assessment offers a framework for predicting the impact of changes and trends on the provision of safe food. Risk assessment models facilitate the evaluation of active or passive changes in how foods are produced, processed, d...

  20. A Function-Based Framework for Stream Assessment & Restoration Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report lays out a framework for approaching stream assessment and restoration projects that focuses on understanding the suite of stream functions at a site in the context of what is happening in the watershed.

  1. Framework for Assessing Biogenic CO2 Emissions from Stationary Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    This revision of the 2011 report, Accounting Framework for Biogenic CO2 Emissions from Stationary Sources, evaluates biogenic CO2 emissions from stationary sources, including a detailed study of the scientific and technical issues associated with assessing biogenic carbon dioxide...

  2. APPLICATION OF PORTER'S FRAMEWORK TO ASSESS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Quagrainie, Kwamena K

    The aquaculture industry in Kenya is assessed using Porter's model ... governmental Organization (NGO) participation has also been identified as the critical ...... Madevu H Competition in the tridimensional urban fresh produce retail market:.

  3. Institutional Assessment: A Framework for Strengthening ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    It is a working document for assessing institutional capacity — ready to be tested in ... in the Department of Administration and Policy Studies, McGill University, and a partner ... Sharing opportunities for innovation in climate change adaptation.

  4. Framework for Multi-Pathway Cumulative Exposure for Comparative Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McKone, Tom; Fantke, Peter

    2016-01-01

    in comparative risk assessment, life-cycle assessment (LCA), and chemical alternatives assessment (CAA), multimedia fate and exposure models synthesize information about partitioning, reaction, and intermedia-transport properties of chemicals in a representative (local to regional) or generic (continental...

  5. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  6. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  7. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  8. Frameworks to assess health systems governance: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyone, Thidar; Smith, Helen; van den Broek, Nynke

    2017-06-01

    Governance of the health system is a relatively new concept and there are gaps in understanding what health system governance is and how it could be assessed. We conducted a systematic review of the literature to describe the concept of governance and the theories underpinning as applied to health systems; and to identify which frameworks are available and have been applied to assess health systems governance. Frameworks were reviewed to understand how the principles of governance might be operationalized at different levels of a health system. Electronic databases and web portals of international institutions concerned with governance were searched for publications in English for the period January 1994 to February 2016. Sixteen frameworks developed to assess governance in the health system were identified and are described. Of these, six frameworks were developed based on theories from new institutional economics; three are primarily informed by political science and public management disciplines; three arise from the development literature and four use multidisciplinary approaches. Only five of the identified frameworks have been applied. These used the principal-agent theory, theory of common pool resources, North's institutional analysis and the cybernetics theory. Governance is a practice, dependent on arrangements set at political or national level, but which needs to be operationalized by individuals at lower levels in the health system; multi-level frameworks acknowledge this. Three frameworks were used to assess governance at all levels of the health system. Health system governance is complex and difficult to assess; the concept of governance originates from different disciplines and is multidimensional. There is a need to validate and apply existing frameworks and share lessons learnt regarding which frameworks work well in which settings. A comprehensive assessment of governance could enable policy makers to prioritize solutions for problems identified

  9. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  10. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-01-01

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  11. Evolution of natural risk: research framework and perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hufschmidt, G.; Crozier, M.; Glade, T.

    2005-05-01

    This study presents a conceptual framework for addressing temporal variation in natural risk. Numerous former natural risk analyses and investigations have demonstrated that time and related changes have a crucial influence on risk. For natural hazards, time becomes a factor for a number of reasons. Using the example of landslides to illustrate this point, it is shown that: 1. landslide history is important in determining probability of occurrence, 2. the significance of catchment variables in explaining landslide susceptibility is dependent on the time scale chosen, 3. the observer's perception of the geosystem's state changes with different time spans, and 4. the system's sensitivity varies with time. Natural hazards are not isolated events but complex features that are connected with the social system. Similarly, elements at risk and their vulnerability are highly dynamic through time, an aspect that is not sufficiently acknowledged in research. Since natural risk is an amalgam of hazard and vulnerability, its temporal behaviour has to be considered as well. Identifying these changes and their underlying processes contributes to a better understanding of natural risk today and in the future. However, no dynamic models for natural risks are currently available. Dynamic behaviour of factors affecting risk is likely to create increasing connectivity and complexity. This demands a broad approach to natural risk, since the concept of risk encapsulates aspects of many disciplines and has suffered from single-discipline approaches in the past. In New Zealand, dramatic environmental and social change has occurred in a relatively short period of time, graphically demonstrating the temporal variability of the geosystem and the social system. To understand these changes and subsequent interactions between both systems, a holistic perspective is needed. This contribution reviews available frameworks, demonstrates the need for further concepts, and gives research

  12. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  13. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  14. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  15. Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

    2010-11-01

    Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

  16. A Case Study Application of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) and Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) Frameworks to Facilitate the Integration of Human Health and Ecological End Points for Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) methods promote the use of a conceptual site model (CSM) to apportion exposures and integrate risk from multiple stressors. While CSMs may encompass multiple species, evaluating end points across taxa can be challenging due to data availability an...

  17. Framework for Information Age Assessment Metrics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Augustine, Thomas H; Broyles, James W

    2004-01-01

    .... In a spiral development process design and assessment are adjacent phases and both profit from this powerful intellectual construct. Both the strengths and weaknesses of a particular technology can be the stimulus for a successful integration that provides the capabilities that will satisfy the needs and goals of the users.

  18. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  19. Urban settlements' vulnerability to flood risks in African cities: A conceptual framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafiu O. Salami

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In the recent past, the frequency and gravity of large-scale flood disasters have increased globally, resulting in casualties, destruction of property and huge economic loss. The destructive flood disaster devastating Louisiana, USA, is a recent example. Despite the availability of advanced technological capabilities for dealing with floods in developed nations, flood disasters continue to become more rampant and disastrous. Developing countries in Africa such as Benin, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and Sudan have recently experienced severe flooding, leaving a considerable number of human casualties and thousands displaced. In African cities, most vulnerable urban residents usually have lesser capacity and fewer resources to recover from the shocks of disaster as a result of the failure of governments to build human security for poor African residents. Many scholars have acknowledged the lack of appropriate vulnerability assessment frameworks and policies, questioning the efficiency and effectiveness of the tested models in Africa. The ability to accurately identify, measure and evaluate the various vulnerabilities of affected people and communities is a right step towards reducing disaster risk. This article aimed at developing a framework for assessing urban settlements’ vulnerability to flood risks in Africa. The framework is currently being tested to assess various dimensions of vulnerability drivers in three urban communities in Ibadan metropolis, the third largest city in Nigeria, focusing more on flood risk perceptions and behaviour of the risk bearers. It uses participatory and mixed method approaches to socially construct vulnerability of populations at risk. This model emanates from the evaluation of considerable relevant literature and an array of vulnerability assessment frameworks. It integrates some approaches that are applicable to African cities in a bid to create a versatile tool to assess, identify and mitigate the effects of

  20. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  1. Managing risk in healthcare: understanding your safety culture using the Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Dianne

    2009-03-01

    To provide sufficient information about the Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF) to allow healthcare professionals to assess its potential usefulness. The assessment of safety culture is an important aspect of risk management, and one in which there is increasing interest among healthcare organizations. Manchester Patient Safety Framework offers a theory-based framework for assessing safety culture, designed specifically for use in the NHS. The framework covers multiple dimensions of safety culture, and five levels of safety culture development. This allows the generation of a profile of an organization's safety culture in terms of areas of relative strength and challenge, which can be used to identify focus issues for change and improvement. Manchester Patient Safety Framework provides a useful method for engaging healthcare professionals in assessing and improving the safety culture in their organization, as part of a programme of risk management.

  2. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  3. Framework for conducting environmental assessments of trade negotiations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-02-01

    This document described the complex task of assessing the environmental impacts of trade negotiations with particular emphasis on the framework of the Strategic Environmental Assessment which the Government of Canada will conduct through a systematic process which can identify and evaluate possible and significant environmental impacts of an initiative. The objective of the assessment is to integrate environmental considerations into decision-making processes at the earliest possible stage. The first part of the framework identifies the importance of recognizing environmental considerations of trade and explains how the framework will contribute to environmental policy. The second part of the framework outlines the process and analytical requirements for conducting an environmental assessment of a trade negotiation. Environmental Assessment Committees will be formed by the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, and will include representatives from federal government departments and agencies. All analyses will be conducted in four stages which will include identifying the economic effect of the negotiation, identifying the likely environmental impact of such changes, assessing the significance of the likely environmental impacts, and identifying enhancement/mitigation options to inform the negotiations. The framework is designed to be flexible enough to be used at current and future trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization, the Free Trade Area of the Americas and in bilateral Free Trade Agreements. An environmental assessment of trade negotiations is considered to be an important decision-making tool for promoting sustainable development. 16 refs., 1 tab

  4. Rapid Technology Assessment Framework for Land Logistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Economy, Environment, Politics SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats TRL Technology Readiness Level US United States WHO World Health...process fills one with the hope of great things to come. From 3-D printed organs to self-assembling asteroid -mining robots, the solution to all the...one to assess the relevant advantages of the new technologies compared to the current systems. For example, if we are considering investment in a

  5. Informing the NCA: EPA's Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Kolian, M.; Crimmins, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework is designed to quantify the physical impacts and economic damages in the United States under future climate change scenarios. To date, the framework has been applied to 25 sectors, using scenarios and projections developed for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. The strength of this framework has been in the use of consistent climatic, socioeconomic, and technological assumptions and inputs across the impact sectors to maximize the ease of cross-sector comparison. The results of the underlying CIRA sectoral analyses are informing the sustained assessment process by helping to address key gaps related to economic valuation and risk. Advancing capacity and scientific literature in this area has created opportunity to consider future applications and strengthening of the framework. This presentation will describe the CIRA framework, present results for various sectors such as heat mortality, air & water quality, winter recreation, and sea level rise, and introduce potential enhancements that can improve the utility of the framework for decision analysis.

  6. Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

    OpenAIRE

    Loebnitz, K.

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and scenario analyses. In this thesis we present a more rigorous framework that allows us to measure a bank's liquidity risk within the standard economic capital and RAROC setting. In particular, we introduc...

  7. Environmental risk assessment: an Australian perspective. Supervising Scientist Report 102

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beer, T.; Ziolkowski, F.

    1995-01-01

    Environmental risk assessment can be used as a strategic tool to set environmental priorities and as a tactical tool to set environmental standards. This report is designed to inform Australian environmental managers about the techniques and applications of environmental risk assessment and to familiarize risk analysts with some of the issues that are of concern to environmental managers. The use of risk assessment is illustrated by applying its techniques to five case studies which include: risk from chemicals and from contaminated sites; risk to people and to the natural environment from development, such as uranium mining; climate change; and risk associated with political decision-making. Then, by considering Australian and overseas practice, a generic framework is presented within which environmental risk assessment in Australia can be undertaken, and possible methods of implementation are discussed. refs., 38 figs

  8. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  9. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  10. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  11. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  12. Cross-Cutting Risk Framework: Mining Data for Common Risks Across the Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Gerald A., Jr.; Ruark, Valerie

    2017-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) defines risk management as an integrated framework, combining risk-informed decision making and continuous risk management to foster forward-thinking and decision making from an integrated risk perspective. Therefore, decision makers must have access to risks outside of their own project to gain the knowledge that provides the integrated risk perspective. Through the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) Business Change Initiative (BCI), risks were integrated into one repository to facilitate access to risk data between projects. With the centralized repository, communications between the FPD, project managers, and risk managers improved and GSFC created the cross-cutting risk framework (CCRF) team. The creation of the consolidated risk repository, in parallel with the initiation of monthly FPD risk managers and risk governance board meetings, are now providing a complete risk management picture spanning the entire directorate. This paper will describe the challenges, methodologies, tools, and techniques used to develop the CCRF, and the lessons learned as the team collectively worked to identify risks that FPD programs projects had in common, both past and present.

  13. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  14. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  15. Development of an Assessment Framework for Restored Forested Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall K. Kolka; Carl C. Trettin; E.A. Nelson

    1998-01-01

    Development of an assessment framework and associated indicators that can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of a wetland restoration is critical to demonstrating the sustainability of restored sites. An interdisciplinary approach was developed to assess how succession is proceeding on a restored bottomland site in South Carolina relative to an undisturbed...

  16. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  17. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  18. INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR ENHANCING EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATION DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Temitope Egbelakin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disasters. Various theories and empirical findings have been used to explain the adoption of protective behaviours including seismic mitigation decisions, but their application has been inadequate to enhance building owners’ protective decisions. A holistic framework that incorporates the motivational orientations of decision-making, coupled with the social, cultural, economic, regulatory, institutional and political realms of earthquake risk mitigation to enhance building owners’ decisions to voluntarily implement adequate mitigation measures, is proposed. This framework attempts to address any multi-disciplinary barriers that exist in earthquake disaster management, by ensuring that stakeholders involved in seismic mitigation decisions work together to foster seismic rehabilitation of EPBs, as well as illuminate strategies that will initiate, promote and sustain the adoption of long-term earthquake mitigation. .

  19. A game theoretic framework for analyzing re-identification risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiyu Wan

    Full Text Available Given the potential wealth of insights in personal data the big databases can provide, many organizations aim to share data while protecting privacy by sharing de-identified data, but are concerned because various demonstrations show such data can be re-identified. Yet these investigations focus on how attacks can be perpetrated, not the likelihood they will be realized. This paper introduces a game theoretic framework that enables a publisher to balance re-identification risk with the value of sharing data, leveraging a natural assumption that a recipient only attempts re-identification if its potential gains outweigh the costs. We apply the framework to a real case study, where the value of the data to the publisher is the actual grant funding dollar amounts from a national sponsor and the re-identification gain of the recipient is the fine paid to a regulator for violation of federal privacy rules. There are three notable findings: 1 it is possible to achieve zero risk, in that the recipient never gains from re-identification, while sharing almost as much data as the optimal solution that allows for a small amount of risk; 2 the zero-risk solution enables sharing much more data than a commonly invoked de-identification policy of the U.S. Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA; and 3 a sensitivity analysis demonstrates these findings are robust to order-of-magnitude changes in player losses and gains. In combination, these findings provide support that such a framework can enable pragmatic policy decisions about de-identified data sharing.

  20. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  1. Risk assessment for civil engineering facilities: critical overview and discussion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faber, M.H.; Stewart, M.G.

    2003-01-01

    The present paper should be seen as a basis for discussion of important aspects of risk analysis and assessment, as well as attempting to describe risk assessment in accordance with the present state of the art. Risk assessment is thus presented in an overview form from the viewpoint of being a means for decision-making and thus within the formal framework of decision theory. First the motivation for risk analysis is given and the theoretical basis together with the practical aspects, methodologies and techniques for the implementation of risk assessment in civil engineering applications are explained and discussed. The paper furthermore addresses the problems associated with risk acceptance criteria, risk aversion and value of human life and attempts to provide suggestions for the rational treatment of these aspects. Finally a number of problem areas are highlighted and the needs for further education, research and dissemination are stressed

  2. Bringing Water into an Integrated Assessment Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Thomson, Allison M.; Sands, Ronald; Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2010-11-30

    We developed a modeling capability to understand how water is allocated within a river basin and examined present and future water allocations among agriculture, energy production, other human requirements, and ecological needs. Water is an essential natural resource needed for food and fiber production, household and industrial uses, energy production, transportation, tourism and recreation, and the functioning of natural ecosystems. Anthropogenic climate change and population growth are anticipated to impose unprecedented pressure on water resources during this century. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) researchers have pioneered the development of integrated assessment (IA) models for the analysis of energy and economic systems under conditions of climate change. This Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) effort led to the development of a modeling capability to evaluate current and future water allocations between human requirements and ecosystem services. The Water Prototype Model (WPM) was built in STELLA®, a computer modeling package with a powerful interface that enables users to construct dynamic models to simulate and integrate many processes (biological, hydrological, economics, sociological). A 150,404-km2 basin in the United States (U.S.) Pacific Northwest region served as the platform for the development of the WPM. About 60% of the study basin is in the state of Washington with the rest in Oregon. The Columbia River runs through the basin for 874 km, starting at the international border with Canada and ending (for the purpose of the simulation) at The Dalles dam. Water enters the basin through precipitation and from streamflows originating from the Columbia River at the international border with Canada, the Spokane River, and the Snake River. Water leaves the basin through evapotranspiration, consumptive uses (irrigation, livestock, domestic, commercial, mining, industrial, and off-stream power generation), and streamflow

  3. Canadian insights: The challenges of an integrated environmental assessment framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCaig, Karen

    2005-01-01

    The paper draws results from a review of literature to examine the strengths and weaknesses of the integrated environmental assessment framework in Canada with respect to the inclusion of health impact assessment. Insights include the legislative nature, rigid structure and priority for the natural environment that may restrict progress and the pool of government agencies that need to be convinced of the benefits of health impact assessment that may provide a strong structure for compliance in the long term

  4. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  5. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  6. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  7. Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

    2018-05-01

    Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

  8. Can systematic reviews inform GMO risk assessment and risk management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eKohl

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a gold standard for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper we 1 consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO and 2 critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  9. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  10. A new framework for designing programmes of assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dijkstra, J; Van der Vleuten, C P M; Schuwirth, L W T

    2010-08-01

    Research on assessment in medical education has strongly focused on individual measurement instruments and their psychometric quality. Without detracting from the value of this research, such an approach is not sufficient to high quality assessment of competence as a whole. A programmatic approach is advocated which presupposes criteria for designing comprehensive assessment programmes and for assuring their quality. The paucity of research with relevance to programmatic assessment, and especially its development, prompted us to embark on a research project to develop design principles for programmes of assessment. We conducted focus group interviews to explore the experiences and views of nine assessment experts concerning good practices and new ideas about theoretical and practical issues in programmes of assessment. The discussion was analysed, mapping all aspects relevant for design onto a framework, which was iteratively adjusted to fit the data until saturation was reached. The overarching framework for designing programmes of assessment consists of six assessment programme dimensions: Goals, Programme in Action, Support, Documenting, Improving and Accounting. The model described in this paper can help to frame programmes of assessment; it not only provides a common language, but also a comprehensive picture of the dimensions to be covered when formulating design principles. It helps identifying areas concerning assessment in which ample research and development has been done. But, more importantly, it also helps to detect underserved areas. A guiding principle in design of assessment programmes is fitness for purpose. High quality assessment can only be defined in terms of its goals.

  11. Biodiversity impact assessment (BIA+) - methodological framework for screening biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Lisa; Pflugmacher, Stephan; Berger, Markus; Finkbeiner, Matthias

    2018-03-01

    For the past 20 years, the life cycle assessment (LCA) community has sought to integrate impacts on biodiversity into the LCA framework. However, existing impact assessment methods still fail to do so comprehensively because they quantify only a few impacts related to specific species and regions. This paper proposes a methodological framework that will allow LCA practitioners to assess currently missing impacts on biodiversity on a global scale. Building on existing models that seek to quantify the impacts of human activities on biodiversity, the herein proposed methodological framework consists of 2 components: a habitat factor for 14 major habitat types and the impact on the biodiversity status in those major habitat types. The habitat factor is calculated by means of indicators that characterize each habitat. The biodiversity status depends on parameters from impact categories. The impact functions, relating these different parameters to a given response in the biodiversity status, rely on expert judgments. To ensure the applicability for LCA practitioners, the components of the framework can be regionalized on a country scale for which LCA inventory data is more readily available. The weighting factors for the 14 major habitat types range from 0.63 to 1.82. By means of area weighting of the major habitat types in a country, country-specific weighting factors are calculated. In order to demonstrate the main part of the framework, examples of impact functions are given for the categories "freshwater eutrophication" and "freshwater ecotoxicity" in 1 major habitat type. The results confirm suitability of the methodological framework. The major advantages are the framework's user-friendliness, given that data can be used from LCA databases directly, and the complete inclusion of all levels of biodiversity (genetic, species, and ecosystem). It is applicable for the whole world and a wide range of impact categories. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:282-297.

  12. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  13. Assessing risk from intelligent attacks: A perspective on approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guikema, Seth D.; Aven, Terje

    2010-01-01

    Assessing the uncertainties in and severity of the consequences of intelligent attacks are fundamentally different from risk assessment for accidental events and other phenomena with inherently random failures. Intelligent attacks against a system involve adaptation on the part of the adversary. The probabilities of the initiating events depend on the risk management actions taken, and they may be more difficult to assess due to high degrees of epistemic uncertainty about the motivations and future actions of adversaries. Several fundamentally different frameworks have been proposed for assessing risk from intelligent attacks. These include basing risk assessment and management on game theoretic modelling of attacker actions, using a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach based on eliciting probabilities of different initiating events from appropriate experts, assessing uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values, and ignoring the probabilities of the attacks and choosing to protect highest valued targets. In this paper we discuss and compare the fundamental assumptions that underlie each of these approaches. We then suggest a new framework that makes the fundamental assumptions underlying the approaches clear to decision makers and presents them with a suite of results from conditional risk analysis methods. Each of the conditional methods presents the risk from a specified set of fundamental assumptions, allowing the decision maker to see the impacts of these assumptions on the risk management strategies considered and to weight the different conditional results with their assessments of the relative likelihood of the different sets of assumptions.

  14. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  15. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  16. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  17. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  18. Smart supply chain risk management - A conceptual framework

    OpenAIRE

    Schlüter, Florian; Henke, Michael; Kersten, Wolfgang; Blecker, Thorsten; Ringle, Christian M.

    2017-01-01

    Screening existing literature on Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) shows that only sporadic attention is paid on real data driven SCRM. Most tools and approaches lead to an expert knowledge based SCRM. Due to the arising topic of digitalization in supply chains, leading to Industry 4.0 (I4.0), there is huge potential in building a data driven, smart SCRM. To speed up research in this direction it is worthwhile to define a new research framework giving direction. To create a consistent frame...

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  1. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  2. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  3. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  4. A study on decision-making framework for developing risk-informed technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Beom Seock

    2002-02-01

    The utility and the nuclear research institutes in Korea have conduct research for improving inefficient requirements in technical specifications using the results of probability risk assessments and information associated with risk. However, the guidance for reviewing the improved technical specifications has not been developed. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop a decision-making framework for investigating and reviewing the documents associated with the changes of technical specifications. This work has been done for helping the regulation agency to review the improved technical specifications as well as to make decisions whether the remedy is accepted or not. The contents of this study include: 1. Surveys on Technical Specification regulations in foreign countries as well as those in Korea 2. Surveys on the state- of- the- art methodology for Risk Informed Technical Specifications and their uses in Korea 3. Development of a decision-making framework in both the licensee and the regulation agency position 4. Development and applications of a decision-making framework using Influence Diagrams. The decision-making framework for RITS using Influence Diagrams are developed and applied to an example problem in this study. This work might contribute to developing the risk informed regulation guidance for improving the quality of the current technical specifications

  5. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  6. A framework for reliability and risk centered maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selvik, J.T.; Aven, T.

    2011-01-01

    Reliability centered maintenance (RCM) is a well-established analysis method for preventive maintenance planning. As its name indicates, reliability is the main point of reference for the planning, but consequences of failures are also assessed. However, uncertainties and risk are to a limited extent addressed by the RCM method, and in this paper we suggest an extension of the RCM to reliability and risk centered maintenance (RRCM) by also considering risk as the reference for the analysis in addition to reliability. A broad perspective on risk is adopted where uncertainties are the main component of risk in addition to possible events and associated consequences. A case from the offshore oil and gas industry is presented to illustrate and discuss the suggested approach.

  7. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  8. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  9. A Framework for Comparative Assessments of Energy Efficiency Policy Measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blum, Helcio; Atkinson, Barbara; Lekov, Alex

    2011-05-24

    When policy makers propose new policies, there is a need to assess the costs and benefits of the proposed policy measures, to compare them to existing and alternative policies, and to rank them according to their effectiveness. In the case of equipment energy efficiency regulations, comparing the effects of a range of alternative policy measures requires evaluating their effects on consumers’ budgets, on national energy consumption and economics, and on the environment. Such an approach should be able to represent in a single framework the particularities of each policy measure and provide comparable results. This report presents an integrated methodological framework to assess prospectively the energy, economic, and environmental impacts of energy efficiency policy measures. The framework builds on the premise that the comparative assessment of energy efficiency policy measures should (a) rely on a common set of primary data and parameters, (b) follow a single functional approach to estimate the energy, economic, and emissions savings resulting from each assessed measure, and (c) present results through a set of comparable indicators. This framework elaborates on models that the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has used in support of its rulemakings on mandatory energy efficiency standards. In addition to a rigorous analysis of the impacts of mandatory standards, DOE compares the projected results of alternative policy measures to those projected to be achieved by the standards. The framework extends such an approach to provide a broad, generic methodology, with no geographic or sectoral limitations, that is useful for evaluating any type of equipment energy efficiency market intervention. The report concludes with a demonstration of how to use the framework to compare the impacts estimated for twelve policy measures focusing on increasing the energy efficiency of gas furnaces in the United States.

  10. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  11. Incorporating Contaminant Bioavailability into Sediment Quality Assessment Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    The recently adopted sediment quality assessment framework for evaluating bay and estuarine sediments in the State of California incorporates bulk sediment chemistry as a key line of evidence(LOE) but does not address the bioavailability of measured contaminants. Thus, the chemis...

  12. Assessing Information Security Strategies, Tactics, Logic and Framework

    CERN Document Server

    Vladimirov, Andrew; Michajlowski, Andriej

    2010-01-01

    This book deals with the philosophy, strategy and tactics of soliciting, managing and conducting information security audits of all flavours. It will give readers the founding principles around information security assessments and why they are important, whilst providing a fluid framework for developing an astute 'information security mind' capable of rapid adaptation to evolving technologies, markets, regulations, and laws.

  13. A decision‐making framework for flood risk management based on a Bayesian Influence Diagram

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Åstrøm, Helena Lisa Alexandra; Madsen, Henrik; Friis-Hansen, Peter

    2014-01-01

    We develop a Bayesian Influence Diagram (ID) approach for risk‐based decision‐ making in flood management. We show that it is a flexible decision‐making tool to assess flood risk in a non‐stationary environment and with an ability to test different adaptation measures in order to agree on the best...... means to describe uncertainty in the system. Hence, an ID contributes with several advantages in risk assessment and decision‐making. We present an ID approach for risk‐ based decision‐making in which we improve conventional flood risk assessments by including several types of hazards...... measures and combinations of these. Adaptation options can be tested at different points in time (in different time slices) which allows for finding the optimal time to invest. The usefulness of our decision‐making framework was exemplified through case studies in Aarhus and Copenhagen. Risk‐based decision‐making...

  14. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  15. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  16. A Framework for the Assessment of Research and Its Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cinzia Daraio

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a holistic framework for the development of models for the assessment of research activities and their impacts. It distinguishes three dimensions, including in an original way, data as a main dimension, together with theory and methodology. Each dimension of the framework is further characterized by three main building blocks: education, research, and innovation (theory; efficiency, effectiveness, and impact (methodology; and availability, interoperability, and “unit-free” property (data. The different dimensions and their nine constituent building blocks are attributes of an overarching concept, denoted as “quality.” Three additional quality attributes are identified as implementation factors (tailorability, transparency, and openness and three “enabling” conditions (convergence, mixed methods, and knowledge infrastructures complete the framework. A framework is required to develop models of metrics. Models of metrics are necessary to assess the meaning, validity, and robustness of metrics. The proposed framework can be a useful reference for the development of the ethics of research evaluation. It can act as a common denominator for different analytical levels and relevant aspects and is able to embrace many different and heterogeneous streams of literature. Directions for future research are provided.

  17. Performance Assessment Framework for Private Finance Initiative Projects in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lop Nor Suzila

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Private Finance Initiative (PFI is viewed as restructuring the previous privatisation concept in delivering value for money for the Malaysian public infrastructure. Among the restructuring efforts in the privatisation is specifying the standard assessment of private concessionaires’ performance through the execution of key performance indicators (KPIs where the private concessionaires’ performance is benchmarked against the government’s standard. KPIs have served as useful tools in assessing performance of PFI projects. However, there is still lacking on determination methods performed to define and measure this KPIs and the absence of guidelines or a framework is also an issue in the implementation of the PFI procurement in Malaysia. Therefore, the objectives of this paper is to investigate the notion of performance assessment model approaches globally (i.e. UK, China, Australia, Serbia and Malaysia and to identify direction for PFI performance assessment tools (KPIs to be practiced in Malaysia. Based on the consideration of these models, this research paper propose an initial framework of performance assessment for PFI projects in Malaysia. The framework is deliberate to cover the performance of PFI at the operation and maintenance phase. The outcomes of this paper can serve as a theoretical base for the development of comprehensive and effective performance assessment for PFI projects in Malaysia.

  18. E-health readiness assessment framework in iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezai-Rad, M; Vaezi, R; Nattagh, F

    2012-01-01

    Concept of e-readiness is used in many areas such as e-business, e-commerce, e-government, and e-banking. In terms of healthcare, e-readiness is a rather new concept, and is propounded under the title of E-healthcare. E-health readiness refers to the readiness of communities and healthcare institutions for the expected changes brought by programs related to Information and Communications Technology (lCT). The present research is conducted aiming at designing E-health Readiness Assessment Framework (EHRAF) in Iran. The e-health readiness assessment framework was designed based on reviewing literature on e-readiness assessment models and opinions of ICT and health experts. In the next step, Delphi method was used to develop and test the designed framework. Three questionnaires developed to test and modify the model while determining weights of the indices; afterward they were either sent to experts through email or delivered to them in face. The designed framework approved with 4 dimensions, 11 constituents and 58 indices. Technical readiness had the highest importance coefficient (0.256099), and the other dimensions were of the next levels of coefficient importance: core readiness (0.25520), social communication readiness (0.244658), and engagement readiness (0.244039). The framework presents the movement route and investment priorities in e-health in Iran. The proposed framework is a good instrument for measuring the e-readiness in health centers in Iran, and for identifying strengths and weaknesses of these centers to access ICT and its implementation for more effectiveness and for analyzing digital divide between them, as well.

  19. E-Health Readiness Assessment Framework in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezai-Rad, M; Vaezi, R; Nattagh, F

    2012-01-01

    Background: Concept of e-readiness is used in many areas such as e-business, e-commerce, e-government, and e-banking. In terms of healthcare, e-readiness is a rather new concept, and is propounded under the title of E-healthcare. E-health readiness refers to the readiness of communities and healthcare institutions for the expected changes brought by programs related to Information and Communications Technology (lCT). The present research is conducted aiming at designing E-health Readiness Assessment Framework (EHRAF) in Iran. Methods: The e-health readiness assessment framework was designed based on reviewing literature on e-readiness assessment models and opinions of ICT and health experts. In the next step, Delphi method was used to develop and test the designed framework. Three questionnaires developed to test and modify the model while determining weights of the indices; afterward they were either sent to experts through email or delivered to them in face. Results: The designed framework approved with 4 dimensions, 11 constituents and 58 indices. Technical readiness had the highest importance coefficient (0.256099), and the other dimensions were of the next levels of coefficient importance: core readiness (0.25520), social communication readiness (0.244658), and engagement readiness (0.244039). Conclusion: The framework presents the movement route and investment priorities in e-health in Iran. The proposed framework is a good instrument for measuring the e-readiness in health centers in Iran, and for identifying strengths and weaknesses of these centers to access ICT and its implementation for more effectiveness and for analyzing digital divide between them, as well. PMID:23304661

  20. Supporting nanomaterial risk assessment by case studies of nano-titanium dioxide using comprehensive environmental assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Here we describe a comprehensive environmental assessment (CEA) approach for two case studies of nano-titanium dioxide (nano-TiO2) in real world applications: water treatment and sunscreen. CEA combines a product life cycle framework with the risk assessment paradigm.

  1. Advancing Integrated Systems Modelling Framework for Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Halog

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The need for integrated methodological framework for sustainability assessment has been widely discussed and is urgent due to increasingly complex environmental system problems. These problems have impacts on ecosystems and human well-being which represent a threat to economic performance of countries and corporations. Integrated assessment crosses issues; spans spatial and temporal scales; looks forward and backward; and incorporates multi-stakeholder inputs. This study aims to develop an integrated methodology by capitalizing the complementary strengths of different methods used by industrial ecologists and biophysical economists. The computational methodology proposed here is systems perspective, integrative, and holistic approach for sustainability assessment which attempts to link basic science and technology to policy formulation. The framework adopts life cycle thinking methods—LCA, LCC, and SLCA; stakeholders analysis supported by multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA; and dynamic system modelling. Following Pareto principle, the critical sustainability criteria, indicators and metrics (i.e., hotspots can be identified and further modelled using system dynamics or agent based modelling and improved by data envelopment analysis (DEA and sustainability network theory (SNT. The framework is being applied to development of biofuel supply chain networks. The framework can provide new ways of integrating knowledge across the divides between social and natural sciences as well as between critical and problem-solving research.

  2. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  3. Developing an Assessment Framework for Affordable and Sustainable Housing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Pullen

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable housing has been subject to research, practice and policy making for some considerable time. More recently attention has been drawn to the separate problem of declining affordability in housing. This paper describes research aimed at developing an assessment framework for both affordability and sustainability as part of the effort to incorporate both of these features into new housing projects. The research has a particular focus on developments aimed at urban densification. Background literature on both affordability and sustainability is reviewed as well as emerging schemes aimed at dealing with both aspects of housing developments. Performance indicators are identified and these are incorporated in an interim assessment framework which is tested using a group of industry experts. The research has highlighted areas where further development is required to attain quantitative assessments of affordable and sustainable housing developments

  4. Framework for Assessing Biogenic CO2 Emissions from ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This revision of the 2011 report, Accounting Framework for Biogenic CO2 Emissions from Stationary Sources, evaluates biogenic CO2 emissions from stationary sources, including a detailed study of the scientific and technical issues associated with assessing biogenic carbon dioxide emissions from stationary sources. EPA developed the revised report, Framework for Assessing Biogenic CO2 Emissions from Stationary Sources, to present a methodological framework for assessing the extent to which the production, processing, and use of biogenic material at stationary sources for energy production results in a net atmospheric contribution of biogenic CO2 emissions. Biogenic carbon dioxide emissions are defined as CO2 emissions related to the natural carbon cycle, as well as those resulting from the production, harvest, combustion, digestion, decomposition, and processing of biologically-based materials. The EPA is continuing to refine its technical assessment of biogenic CO2 emissions through another round of targeted peer review of the revised study with the EPA Science Advisory Board (SAB). This study was submitted to the SAB's Biogenic Carbon Emissions Panel in February 2015. http://yosemite.epa.gov/sab/sabproduct.nsf/0/3235dac747c16fe985257da90053f252!OpenDocument&TableRow=2.2#2 The revised report will inform efforts by policymakers, academics, and other stakeholders to evaluate the technical aspects related to assessments of biogenic feedstocks used for energy at s

  5. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  6. NEW INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMICS FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING AND IMPROVING AGRARIAN ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Bachev

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available We incorporate interdisciplinary New Institutional and Transaction Costs Economics and suggest a framework for assessing efficiency of farms and agrarian organizations. Our new approach includes: study of farm and agrarian organizations as governing rather than production structure; assessment of comparative efficiency of alternative market, contract, internal, and hybrid modes of governance; analysis of level of transaction costs and their institutional, behavioral, dimensional, technological and natural factors; determination of criteria of farm efficiency and its effective boundaries; specification of economic role of government and needs for public interventions in agrarian sector; assessment of comparative efficiency of alternative forms of public involvement.

  7. Safety culture' is integrating 'human' into risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, Taiji

    2014-01-01

    Significance of Fukushima nuclear power accident requested reconsideration of safety standards, of which we had usually no doubt. Risk assessment standard (JIS B 9702), Which was used for repetition of database preparation and cumulative assessment, defined allowable risk and residual risk. However, work site and immediate assessment was indispensable beside such assessment so as to ensure safety. Risk of casualties was absolutely not acceptable in principle and judgments to approve allowable risk needed accountability, which was reminded by safety culture proposed by IAEA and also identified by investigation of organizational cause of Columbia accident. Actor of safety culture would be organization and individual, and mainly individual. Realization of safety culture was conducted by personnel having moral consciousness and firm sense of mission in the course of jobs and working daily with sweat pouring. Safety engineering/technology should have framework integrating human as such totality. (T. Tanaka)

  8. Performing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Through RAVEN

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. Kinoshita

    2013-06-01

    The Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENviroment (RAVEN) code is a software tool that acts as the control logic driver and post-processing engine for the newly developed Thermal-Hydraulic code RELAP-7. RAVEN is now a multi-purpose Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) software framework that allows dispatching different functionalities: Derive and actuate the control logic required to simulate the plant control system and operator actions (guided procedures), allowing on-line monitoring/controlling in the Phase Space Perform both Monte-Carlo sampling of random distributed events and Dynamic Event Tree based analysis Facilitate the input/output handling through a Graphical User Interface (GUI) and a post-processing data mining module

  9. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  10. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  11. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  12. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  13. Systems Reliability Framework for Surface Water Sustainability and Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, J. R.; Yeghiazarian, L.

    2016-12-01

    With microbial contamination posing a serious threat to the availability of clean water across the world, it is necessary to develop a framework that evaluates the safety and sustainability of water systems in respect to non-point source fecal microbial contamination. The concept of water safety is closely related to the concept of failure in reliability theory. In water quality problems, the event of failure can be defined as the concentration of microbial contamination exceeding a certain standard for usability of water. It is pertinent in watershed management to know the likelihood of such an event of failure occurring at a particular point in space and time. Microbial fate and transport are driven by environmental processes taking place in complex, multi-component, interdependent environmental systems that are dynamic and spatially heterogeneous, which means these processes and therefore their influences upon microbial transport must be considered stochastic and variable through space and time. A physics-based stochastic model of microbial dynamics is presented that propagates uncertainty using a unique sampling method based on artificial neural networks to produce a correlation between watershed characteristics and spatial-temporal probabilistic patterns of microbial contamination. These results are used to address the question of water safety through several sustainability metrics: reliability, vulnerability, resilience and a composite sustainability index. System reliability is described uniquely though the temporal evolution of risk along watershed points or pathways. Probabilistic resilience describes how long the system is above a certain probability of failure, and the vulnerability metric describes how the temporal evolution of risk changes throughout a hierarchy of failure levels. Additionally our approach allows for the identification of contributions in microbial contamination and uncertainty from specific pathways and sources. We expect that this

  14. DECISION-COMPONENTS OF NICE'S TECHNOLOGY APPRAISALS ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Folter, Joost; Trusheim, Mark; Jonsson, Pall; Garner, Sarah

    2018-01-01

    Value assessment frameworks have gained prominence recently in the context of U.S. healthcare. Such frameworks set out a series of factors that are considered in funding decisions. The UK's National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) is an established health technology assessment (HTA) agency. We present a novel application of text analysis that characterizes NICE's Technology Appraisals in the context of the newer assessment frameworks and present the results in a visual way. A total of 243 documents of NICE's medicines guidance from 2007 to 2016 were analyzed. Text analysis was used to identify a hierarchical set of decision factors considered in the assessments. The frequency of decision factors stated in the documents was determined and their association with terms related to uncertainty. The results were incorporated into visual representations of hierarchical factors. We identified 125 decision factors, and hierarchically grouped these into eight domains: Clinical Effectiveness, Cost Effectiveness, Condition, Current Practice, Clinical Need, New Treatment, Studies, and Other Factors. Textual analysis showed all domains appeared consistently in the guidance documents. Many factors were commonly associated with terms relating to uncertainty. A series of visual representations was created. This study reveals the complexity and consistency of NICE's decision-making processes and demonstrates that cost effectiveness is not the only decision-criteria. The study highlights the importance of processes and methodology that can take both quantitative and qualitative information into account. Visualizations can help effectively communicate this complex information during the decision-making process and subsequently to stakeholders.

  15. E-Services quality assessment framework for collaborative networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stegaru, Georgiana; Danila, Cristian; Sacala, Ioan Stefan; Moisescu, Mihnea; Mihai Stanescu, Aurelian

    2015-08-01

    In a globalised networked economy, collaborative networks (CNs) are formed to take advantage of new business opportunities. Collaboration involves shared resources and capabilities, such as e-Services that can be dynamically composed to automate CN participants' business processes. Quality is essential for the success of business process automation. Current approaches mostly focus on quality of service (QoS)-based service selection and ranking algorithms, overlooking the process of service composition which requires interoperable, adaptable and secure e-Services to ensure seamless collaboration, data confidentiality and integrity. Lack of assessment of these quality attributes can result in e-Service composition failure. The quality of e-Service composition relies on the quality of each e-Service and on the quality of the composition process. Therefore, there is the need for a framework that addresses quality from both views: product and process. We propose a quality of e-Service composition (QoESC) framework for quality assessment of e-Service composition for CNs which comprises of a quality model for e-Service evaluation and guidelines for quality of e-Service composition process. We implemented a prototype considering a simplified telemedicine use case which involves a CN in e-Healthcare domain. To validate the proposed quality-driven framework, we analysed service composition reliability with and without using the proposed framework.

  16. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  17. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  18. Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verbeke Sven

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

  19. Quantitative Security Risk Assessment of Android Permissions and Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Wang , Yang; Zheng , Jun; Sun , Chen; Mukkamala , Srinivas

    2013-01-01

    Part 6: Mobile Computing; International audience; The booming of the Android platform in recent years has attracted the attention of malware developers. However, the permissions-based model used in Android system to prevent the spread of malware, has shown to be ineffective. In this paper, we propose DroidRisk, a framework for quantitative security risk assessment of both Android permissions and applications (apps) based on permission request patterns from benign apps and malware, which aims ...

  20. Risk management frameworks: supporting the next generation of Murray-Darling Basin water sharing plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Podger

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Water jurisdictions in Australia are required to prepare and implement water resource plans. In developing these plans the common goal is realising the best possible use of the water resources – maximising outcomes while minimising negative impacts. This requires managing the risks associated with assessing and balancing cultural, industrial, agricultural, social and environmental demands for water within a competitive and resource-limited environment. Recognising this, conformance to international risk management principles (ISO 31000:2009 have been embedded within the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. Yet, to date, there has been little strategic investment by water jurisdictions in bridging the gap between principle and practice. The ISO 31000 principles and the risk management framework that embodies them align well with an adaptive management paradigm within which to conduct water resource planning. They also provide an integrative framework for the development of workflows that link risk analysis with risk evaluation and mitigation (adaptation scenarios, providing a transparent, repeatable and robust platform. This study, through a demonstration use case and a series of workflows, demonstrates to policy makers how these principles can be used to support the development of the next generation of water sharing plans in 2019. The workflows consider the uncertainty associated with climate and flow inputs, and model parameters on irrigation and hydropower production, meeting environmental flow objectives and recreational use of the water resource. The results provide insights to the risks associated with meeting a range of different objectives.

  1. The effect of emotions on risk perception: Experimental evaluation of the affective tendencies framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drače Saša

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the role of specific emotions on risk perception providing a more stringent experimental test of the Appraisal Tendencies Framework (ATF. Consistent with expectations, angry and happy participants made more optimistic risk estimates than participants who were made sad. As hypothesized by ATF, happiness and anger also led people to somewhat higher certainty appraisals than sadness. However, this change in perception did not mediate the impact of emotions on risk estimates. Taken together, our results provide the evidence for causal role of specific emotions in risk perception and contribute to literature showing that the effects of emotion on judgment are not solely due to the valence of the experienced emotion. However, they also suggest that the processes underlying emotion effects remain in need for further specifications.

  2. Informatization Level Assessment Framework and Educational Policy Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Ana Sekulovska; Pece Mitrevski

    2018-01-01

    Seeing the informatization as a measure of the educational policy, we propose an informatization level assessment framework and introduce a composite indicator – Education Informatization Index, calculated as a weighted sum by applying the Rank-Order Centroid method for weight designation. Although it is made up of only two main categories (Educational Policy Implementation subindex and Educational Policy Creation subindex) and a total of six individual indicators, it captures well all the so...

  3. Sensei: A Multi-Modal Framework for Assessing Stress Resiliency

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    interest for the second subject is the upturn in the GSR response before the start of the Stroop test, possibly indicating some anticipatory stress ...Framework for Assessing Stress Resiliency (March 1-31, 2013) From: Ajay Divakaran, Technical Leader Jeffrey Lubin, Senior Research Scientist Joe...Period 15 (March 2013): Task 3.1: Capture Behavioral Stress Markers in Real-Time in Lab Environment with graded exposure to ICT’s scenarios MAC 1-6

  4. Social impact assessments: Developing a consolidated conceptual framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arce-Gomez, Antonio, E-mail: aarcegomez@swin.edu.au; Donovan, Jerome D., E-mail: jdonovan@swin.edu.au; Bedggood, Rowan E., E-mail: rbedggood@swin.edu.au

    2015-01-15

    Social Impact Assessments (SIAs) have played an increasingly important role in the conduct of planned interventions, providing proponents the capacity to assess and manage the social consequences of their activities. Whilst the SIA field has experienced significant conceptual and practical development over the last decade, efforts at consolidating this within one framework have been limited. In this paper, we incorporate this new knowledge by redeveloping and thus updating the SIA procedural framework developed by Interorganizational Committee on Guidelines and Principles for Social Impact Assessment. In doing so, this updated procedural framework has attempted to incorporate current ‘best practice’ that focuses on participatory approaches to undertaking an SIA. This involved making adaptions to two steps, expansions to five steps, integration of a stronger participatory approach to six steps, and the development of a new step, Management and Evaluation reflecting moves towards ex-post use of SIA processes. It is hoped that this consolidation of the literature of a decade's worth of key findings in SIA research will lead to further efforts towards a meta-evaluation of SIA literature and a platform from which newer developments may be further investigated.

  5. Development of Sustainability Assessment Framework in Hydropower sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soliha Sahimi, Nur; Turan, Faiz Mohd; Johan, Kartina

    2017-08-01

    Nowadays, Malaysian demand in energy sector was drastically increase due to technological developments. Since, hydropower is one of potential renewable energy source in Malaysia. The largest electricity utility company, Tenaga Nasional Berhad was provide an electricity to more than seven million people via independent suppliers in peninsular Malaysia and Sabah by intended a potential sustainable hydropower system. In order to increasingly the power capacity from current use, 1882 MW to more than 3000 MW by years 2020. In this study, the environmental issues and also the penalty to the responsible company especially on Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) towards their project or business are one of the problems. Other than that, every project or business has to prepare a sustainability statement or sustainability report as vital to Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad under their listing requirements. Next, the sustainability performance on their project cannot be determined to achieve the key performance indicators (KPI) satisfaction from Government, stakeholder or any responsible agencies. This study presents an exhaustive review of these studies and suggests a direction for future developments. Sustainability Assessment framework or self-assessment is decidedly as a significant framework to assist towards sustainability reporting and to produce a Sustainability index for Hydropower sector using a mathematical model study. The results reveal that, the quantitative measurement from Sustainability Assessment framework to Systematic Sustainability Asssesment tool can be produce. In doing so, it is possible to improve the performance of the project especially in hydropower planner.

  6. Social impact assessments: Developing a consolidated conceptual framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arce-Gomez, Antonio; Donovan, Jerome D.; Bedggood, Rowan E.

    2015-01-01

    Social Impact Assessments (SIAs) have played an increasingly important role in the conduct of planned interventions, providing proponents the capacity to assess and manage the social consequences of their activities. Whilst the SIA field has experienced significant conceptual and practical development over the last decade, efforts at consolidating this within one framework have been limited. In this paper, we incorporate this new knowledge by redeveloping and thus updating the SIA procedural framework developed by Interorganizational Committee on Guidelines and Principles for Social Impact Assessment. In doing so, this updated procedural framework has attempted to incorporate current ‘best practice’ that focuses on participatory approaches to undertaking an SIA. This involved making adaptions to two steps, expansions to five steps, integration of a stronger participatory approach to six steps, and the development of a new step, Management and Evaluation reflecting moves towards ex-post use of SIA processes. It is hoped that this consolidation of the literature of a decade's worth of key findings in SIA research will lead to further efforts towards a meta-evaluation of SIA literature and a platform from which newer developments may be further investigated

  7. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  8. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  9. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  10. Framework for dementia Quality of Life assessment with Assistive Technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peterson, Carrie Beth; Prasad, Neeli R.; Prasad, Ramjee

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a theoretical framework for a Quality of Life (QOL) evaluation tool that is sensitive, flexible, computerized, and specific to assistive technology (AT) for dementia care. Using the appropriate evaluation tool serves to improve methodologies that are used for AT assessment...... to assessing QOL is that results are subjective and difficult to analyze in an objective, empirical manner. This paper accentuates that this is not a hindrance to measuring OQL, but could be emphasized and adapted to create a precise measurement tool; the consumer voice must be sought and empowered...

  11. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  12. Innovative human health and ecological risk assessment techniques at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, S.; Jones, K.; Goller, E.

    1993-01-01

    The open-quotes Hanford Site Baseline Risk Assessment Methodologyclose quotes (HSBRAM) was developed to enhance the preparation of risk assessments supporting the Hanford site cleanup mission. This methodology satisfies a Hanford federal facility agreement and consent order (tri-party agreement) milestone and is used to evaluate the risk to human health and the environment under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). The methodology was prepared by the Hanford Risk Assessment Committee (RAC) consisting of tri-party representatives: the U.S. Department of Energy, the State of Washington Department of Ecology, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), with associated contractors. The risk assessment guidance provided by EPA is sufficiently general to permit tailoring of specific parameters to meet the risk assessment needs of individual sites. The RAC utilized EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund, (RAGS) as the cornerstone of the HSBRAM. The RAC added necessary Hanford-specific elements to construct a complete risk assessment guidance for utilization as an independent document. The HSBRAM is a living document because the RAC charter emphasizes the importance of continued methodology reevaluation. The HSBRAM also provides guidelines for the application of EPA's open-quotes Framework for Ecological Risk Assessmentclose quotes to Hanford-specific environmental baseline risk assessments by including endangered and threatened species in addition to sensitive habitats potentially associated with the Hanford site and guidance for selection of ecotoxicological data. Separate negotiations for the selection of risk parameters for each operable unit were avoided by defining parameters in the HSBRAM. There are 78 past-practice operable units at Hanford requiring risk assessments

  13. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  14. Optimising the bio-piling of weathered hydrocarbons within a risk management framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hough, R.; Brassington, K.; Sinke, A.; Crossley, J.; Paton, G.; Semple, K.; Risdon, G.; Jacobson, Ch.; Daly, P.; Jackman, S.; Lethbridge, G.; Pollard, S.

    2005-01-01

    Thirty years of research into petroleum microbiology and bio-remediation have bypassed an important observation - that many hydrocarbon contaminated sites posing potential risks to human health harbour weathered, 'mid-distillate' or heavy oils rather than 'fresh product'. Ex-situ bio-piling is an important technology for treating soils contaminated with weathered hydrocarbons. However, its performance continues to be represented by reference to reductions in the hydrocarbon 'load' in the soils being treated, rather than reductions in the risks posed by the hydrocarbon contamination. The absence of 'risk' from the vocabulary of many operators and remediation projects reduces stakeholder (regulatory, investor, landowner, and public) confidence in remediation technologies, and subsequently limits the market potential of these technologies. Stakeholder confidence in the bio-piling of weathered hydrocarbons may be improved by demonstrating process optimisation within a validated risk management framework. To address these issues, a consortium led by Cranfield University's Integrated Waste Management Centre has secured funding from the UK Government's Bio-remediation LINK programme. Project PROMISE (involving BP, SecondSite Regeneration Ltd., Dew Remediation Ltd., TES Bretby (Mowlem Group), technology translators PERA, and academics from Aberdeen, Cranfield and Lancaster Universities) aims to improve market confidence in bio-piling by demonstrating how this treatment may be applied within a risk management context. For weathered hydrocarbons in particular, the underpinning scientific components of process control, waste diagnostics, environmental fate modelling, and risk assessment have yet to be fully integrated to allow bio-piling projects to be verified with improved confidence. The Joint Research Council Review of Bio-remediation recognised this in calling explicitly for the positioning of bio-remediation within a risk management framework. The PERF report (Thermo

  15. Multi-dimensional perspectives of flood risk - using a participatory framework to develop new approaches to flood risk communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollason, Edward; Bracken, Louise; Hardy, Richard; Large, Andy

    2017-04-01

    Flooding is a major hazard across Europe which, since, 1998 has caused over €52 million in damages and displaced over half a million people. Climate change is predicted to increase the risks posed by flooding in the future. The 2007 EU Flood Directive cemented the use of flood risk maps as a central tool in understanding and communicating flood risk. Following recent flooding in England, an urgent need to integrate people living at risk from flooding into flood management approaches, encouraging flood resilience and the up-take of resilient activities has been acknowledged. The effective communication of flood risk information plays a major role in allowing those at risk to make effective decisions about flood risk and increase their resilience, however, there are emerging concerns over the effectiveness of current approaches. The research presented explores current approaches to flood risk communication in England and the effectiveness of these methods in encouraging resilient actions before and during flooding events. The research also investigates how flood risk communications could be undertaken more effectively, using a novel participatory framework to integrate the perspectives of those living at risk. The research uses co-production between local communities and researchers in the environmental sciences, using a participatory framework to bring together local knowledge of flood risk and flood communications. Using a local competency group, the research explores what those living at risk from flooding want from flood communications in order to develop new approaches to help those at risk understand and respond to floods. Suggestions for practice are refined by the communities to co-produce recommendations. The research finds that current approaches to real-time flood risk communication fail to forecast the significance of predicted floods, whilst flood maps lack detailed information about how floods occur, or use scientific terminology which people at risk

  16. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments