The Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) in patients treated with external beam radiation therapy: Evaluation and optimization in patients at higher risk of relapse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halverson, Schuyler; Schipper, Matthew; Blas, Kevin; Lee, Vivien; Sabolch, Aaron; Olson, Karin; Sandler, Howard M.; Feng, Felix Y.; Hamstra, Daniel A.

2011-01-01

Background: The Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) was developed to predict freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF) following radical prostatectomy (RP). Its utility following external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) has not been externally evaluated. Methods: A retrospective study of 612 patients treated with dose-escalated EBRT at University of Michigan Medical Center. Results: Compared to the derivation cohort, EBRT treated patients had higher-risk disease (28% with CAPRA of 6–10 vs. 5%, respectively). A total of 114 patients (19%) had BF with 5-year BF ranging from 7% with CAPRA 0–3 to 35% with CAPRA 7–10. For RT patients the risk of BF at 5-year was similar to 4 surgical cohorts for CAPRA scores 0–2 but lower for all CAPRA scores ⩾ 3. The difference favoring RT increased with increasing CAPRA score reaching a 27–50% absolute improved at 5-years for CAPRA scores of 6–10. On multivariate analysis each CAPRA point increased the risk of BF (p < 0.0001) while Gleason pattern 5 in the biopsy also increased BF (p = 0.01) and long-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) significantly reduced the risk of BF (p = 0.015). Conclusions: Compared to surgical series the risk of BF was lower with dose-escalated EBRT with the greatest difference at the highest CAPRA scores.

Maternal medical risks during pregnancy and childhood externalizing behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Dylan B; Vaughn, Michael G

2018-04-25

Research has indicated that maternal health during the prenatal period and at delivery carries far reaching significance for the development of offspring. Even so, the role of the accumulation of maternal medical risks during pregnancy in the development of externalizing behavior during childhood has generally been overlooked. The present study investigates whether the accumulation of maternal medical risks during the prenatal period is positively associated with childhood externalizing behavior, and whether this association is stronger among male offspring. We examined a large, nationally representative sample of children who participated in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (ECLS-B). Information concerning maternal medical history, including the presence of a number of medical risks during pregnancy, was obtained through hospital records. A subsample of children with both parent and teacher reports of externalizing behavior during kindergarten was employed in the present study. A greater number of maternal medical risks during pregnancy increased the odds of childhood externalizing behavior across settings, but only among male offspring. The predicted probability of persistent externalizing behavior among males increased from .084 in the absence of maternal medical risks during pregnancy to .241 in the presence of three or more maternal medical risks during pregnancy. Our findings suggest that maternal medical risks during the prenatal period can have far-reaching consequences for the behavioral development of male offspring. Treatment of medical risks among expectant mothers may have the added benefit of reducing the likelihood of childhood externalizing behavior among male progeny. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: Familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.J.M. Buschgens (Cathelijne); M.A.G. van Aken (Marcel); S.H.N. Swinkels (Sophie); J. Ormel (Johan Hans); F.C. Verhulst (Frank); J.K. Buitelaar (Jan)

2010-01-01

textabstractThe aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in

Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents : familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buschgens, Cathelijne J. M.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.; Swinkels, Sophie H. N.; Ormel, Johan; Verhulst, Frank C.; Buitelaar, Jan K.

The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large

Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buschgens, C.J.M.; Aken, M.A.G. van; Swinkels, S.H.N.; Ormel, J.; Verhulst, F.C.; Buitelaar, J.K.

2010-01-01

The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large

Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buschgens, C.J.M.; van Aken, M.A.G.; Swinkels, S.H.N.; Ormel, J.; Verhulst, F.C.; Buitelaar, J.K.

2010-01-01

The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large

Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

1992-07-01

In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as a three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC's PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described

Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

1993-01-01

This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, C. Senthil; Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K.; Balasubramaniyan, V.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.

Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, C. Senthil, E-mail: cskumar@igcar.gov.in [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India); Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K. [Reactor Design Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam (India); Balasubramaniyan, V. [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India)

2015-11-15

Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.

Review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Davis, P.R.; Satterwhite, D.G.; Gilmore, W.E.; Gregg, R.E.

1989-11-01

A review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant probabilistic risk Assessment was conducted with the objective of confirming the safety perspectives brought to light by the probabilistic risk assessment. The scope of the review included the entire Level I probabilistic risk assessment including external events. This is consistent with the scope of the probabilistic risk assessment. The review included an assessment of the assumptions, methods, models, and data used in the study. 47 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs

Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reed, J.W.

1985-01-01

The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

OpenAIRE

2009-01-01

Abstract The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10?12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large prospective population-based cohort study in the Netherlands (N = 2,230). Regression analyses were used to determine the relative contribution of FR-EXT and perceived parenting s...

Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kai, Michiaki

2012-01-01

This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

2011-12-01

To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

External risk factors affecting construction costs

Science.gov (United States)

Mubarak, Husin, Saiful; Oktaviati, Mutia

2017-11-01

Some risk factors can have impacts on the cost, time, and performance. Results of previous studies indicated that the external conditions are among the factors which give effect to the contractor in the completion of the project. The analysis in the study carried out by considering the conditions of the project in the last 15 years in Aceh province, divided into military conflict phase (2000-2004), post tsunami disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction phase (2005-2009), and post-rehabilitation and reconstruction phase (2010-present). This study intended to analyze the impact of external risk factors, primarily related to the impact on project costs and to investigate the influence of the risk factors and construction phases impacted the project cost. Data was collected by using a questionnaire distributed in 15 large companies qualification contractors in Aceh province. Factors analyzed consisted of socio-political, government policies, natural disasters, and monetary conditions. Data were analyzed using statistical application of severity index to measure the level of risk impact. The analysis results presented the tendency of impact on cost can generally be classified as low. There is only one variable classified as high-impact, variable `fuel price increases', which appear on the military conflict and post tsunami disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction periods. The risk impact on costs from the factors and variables classified with high intensity needs a serious attention, especially when the high level impact is followed by the high frequency of occurrences.

A methodology for assessment seismic risk in PSAs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jae, Moo Sung

2001-01-01

This paper suggested a new framework for assessing seismic risk in PSAs. The framework used the concepts of requirement and achievement in the reliability physics. The quantified correlation which is a function of the requirement variable (hazard curve) and the achievement variable (fragility curve) results in a quantity, the unconditional frequency of exceeding a damage lelvel. This framework can be applied to any other external safety assessment, such as Fire and Flood Risk in PSAs

Risk and protective factors for internalizing and externalizing outcomes among HIV-affected youth in Haiti.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Michelle; Betancourt, Theresa; Eustache, Eddy; Oswald, Catherine; Louis, Ermaze; Mukherjee, Joia; Surkan, Pamela J; Smith Fawzi, Mary C

2015-01-01

The present study aims to: (1) estimate the levels of internalizing symptoms and externalizing behaviors among youth affected by HIV in central Haiti; and (2) examine the risk and protective factors associated with these outcomes to identify potential areas of intervention for HIV-affected youth. Baseline data for 492 youth affected by HIV (ages 10-17) and their 330 caregivers were collected for a pilot study of a psychosocial support intervention. Participants were recruited from a list of HIV-positive patients receiving care at Partners In Health/Zanmi Lasante clinic sites. Internalizing and externalizing behaviors were assessed using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Demographic, economic, and social indicators were collected using a structured questionnaire administered by trained social workers. Youth affected by HIV in central Haiti displayed high levels of internalizing and, to a lesser degree, externalizing symptoms. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated risk factors most strongly associated with internalizing symptoms (socioeconomic status, parental depressive symptoms) and externalizing behaviors (household living arrangements, such as living with a stepparent). Social support had a protective effect on externalizing behaviors for both caregiver (β=-0.03, p=0.01) and self-report (β=-0.05, pHaiti and similar resource-limited settings.

Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2013-01-01

Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

The outcomes and risk factors of fetal bradycardia associated with external cephalic version.

Science.gov (United States)

Suyama, Fumio; Ogawa, Kohei; Tazaki, Yukiko; Miwa, Terumi; Taniguchi, Kosuke; Nakamura, Noriyuki; Tanaka, Satomi; Tanigaki, Shinji; Sago, Haruhiko

2017-11-02

The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes and risk factors of fetal bradycardia after external cephalic version (ECV). We performed a retrospective study of women who underwent ECV after 35 weeks of gestation in 2010-2016. We assessed the birth outcomes, including umbilical cord artery pH, according to the duration of fetal bradycardia and the risk factors for bradycardia. Among 390 cases, 189 (48.5%) cases showed fetal bradycardia during or immediately after ECV. The duration of fetal bradycardia was 10 min occurred in three cases; emergency cesarean section was performed in each case, with delivery after 12-4 min of bradycardia. Two of three cases showed low Apgar scores at 5 min, with an umbilical cord arterial pH of 10 min after ECV was a risk factor for asphyxia. Thus, delivery should be completed within 10 min after bradycardia. A low maternal BMI and a prolonged ECV procedure were risk factors for bradycardia after ECV.

External Events PSA for the Paks NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bareith, Attila; Karsa, Zoltan; Siklossy, Tamas; Vida, Zoltan

2014-01-01

Initially, probabilistic safety assessment of external events was limited to the analysis of earthquakes for the Paks Nuclear Power Plant in Hungary. The level 1 seismic PSA was completed in 2002 showing a significant contribution of seismic failures to core damage risk. Although other external events of natural origin had previously been screened out from detailed plant PSA mostly on the basis of event frequencies, a review of recent experience on extreme weather phenomena made during the periodic safety review of the plant led to the initiation of PSA for external events other than earthquakes in 2009. In the meantime, the accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant confirmed further the importance of such an analysis. The external event PSA for the Paks plant followed the commonly known steps: selection and screening of external hazards, hazard assessment for screened-in external events, analysis of plant response and fragility, PSA model development, and risk quantification and interpretation of results. As a result of event selection and screening the following weather related external hazards were subject to detailed analysis: extreme wind, extreme rainfall (precipitation), extreme snow, extremely high and extremely low temperatures, lightning, frost and ice formation. The analysis proved to be a significant challenge due to scarcity of data, lack of knowledge, as well as limitations of existing PSA methodologies. This paper presents an overview of the external events PSA performed for the Paks NPP. Important methodological aspects are summarised. Key analysis findings and unresolved issues that need further elaboration are highlighted. Development of external events PSA for the Paks NPP was completed by the end of 2012. The analysis followed the commonly known steps: selection and screening of external hazards, hazard assessment for screened-in external events, analysis of plant response and fragility, PSA model development, and risk

External event analysis methods for NUREG-1150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, M.P.; Lambright, J.A.

1989-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring probabilistic risk assessments of six operating commercial nuclear power plants as part of a major update of the understanding of risk as provided by the original WASH-1400 risk assessments. In contrast to the WASH-1400 studies, at least two of the NUREG-1150 risk assessments will include an analysis of risks due to earthquakes, fires, floods, etc., which are collectively known as eternal events. This paper summarizes the methods to be used in the external event analysis for NUREG-1150 and the results obtained to date. The two plants for which external events are being considered are Surry and Peach Bottom, a PWR and BWR respectively. The external event analyses (through core damage frequency calculations) were completed in June 1989, with final documentation available in September. In contrast to most past external event analyses, wherein rudimentary systems models were developed reflecting each external event under consideration, the simplified NUREG-1150 analyses are based on the availability of the full internal event PRA systems models (event trees and fault trees) and make use of extensive computer-aided screening to reduce them to sequence cut sets important to each external event. This provides two major advantages in that consistency and scrutability with respect to the internal event analysis is achieved, and the full gamut of random and test/maintenance unavailabilities are automatically included, while only those probabilistically important survive the screening process. Thus, full benefit of the internal event analysis is obtained by performing the internal and external event analyses sequentially

Assessment of patient radiation protection in external radiotherapy departments after inspections performed by the ASN 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franchi, Vincent; Marchal, Carole

2009-10-01

This report proposes an assessment of patient radiation protection in external radiotherapy. It is based on inter-regional syntheses of inspections performed by the ASN in external radiotherapy departments during 2008. It addresses 6 main themes related to patient radiation protection: human and material resources, organisation of medical physics, training in patient radiation protection, mastering of equipment (maintenance, internal quality controls of medical devices), safety and care quality management (formalization of the patient care process and definition of responsibilities, patient identity control, treatment preparation, and treatment execution), and risk management (a priori risk analysis, declaration, recording and internal processing of dysfunctions, improvements of care quality and safety management system)

The Influence of Organizational External Factors on Construction Risk Management among Nigerian Construction Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.Q. Adeleke

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Background: Substantial empirical research has shown conflicting results regarding the influence of organizational external factors on construction risk management, suggesting the necessity to introduce a moderator into the study. The present research confirmed whether rules and regulations matter on the relationships between organizational external factors and construction risk management. Methods: Based on discouragement and organizational control theory, this research examined the effects of organizational external factors and rules and regulations on construction risk management among 238 employees operating in construction companies in Abuja and Lagos, Nigeria. A personally administered questionnaire was used to acquire the data. The data were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling. Results: A significant positive relationship between organizational external factors and construction risk management was asserted. This study also found a significant positive relationship between rules and regulations and construction risk management. As anticipated, rules and regulations were found to moderate the relationship between organizational external factors and construction risk management, with a significant positive result. Similarly, a significant interaction effect was also found between rules and regulations and organizational external factors. Implications of the research from a Nigerian point of view have also been discussed. Conclusion: Political, economy, and technology factors helped the construction companies to reduce the chance of risk occurrence during the construction activities. Rules and regulations also helped to lessen the rate of accidents involving construction workers as well as the duration of the projects. Similarly, the influence of the organizational external factors with rules and regulations on construction risk management has proven that most of the construction companies that implement the

Internal dosimetry hazard and risk assessments: methods and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberts, G.A.

2006-01-01

Routine internal dose exposures are typically (in the UK nuclear industry) less than external dose exposures: however, the costs of internal dosimetry monitoring programmes can be significantly greater than those for external dosimetry. For this reason decisions on when to apply routine monitoring programmes, and the nature of these programmes, can be more critical than for external dosimetry programmes. This paper describes various methods for performing hazard and risk assessments which are being developed by RWE NUKEM Limited Approved Dosimetry Services to provide an indication when routine internal dosimetry monitoring should be considered. (author)

Timing of delivery after external cephalic version and the risk for cesarean delivery.

Science.gov (United States)

Kabiri, Doron; Elram, Tamar; Aboo-Dia, Mushira; Elami-Suzin, Matan; Elchalal, Uriel; Ezra, Yossef

2011-08-01

To estimate the association between time of delivery after external cephalic version at term and the risk for cesarean delivery. This retrospective cohort study included all successful external cephalic versions performed in a tertiary center between January 1997 and January 2010. Stepwise logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratio (OR) for cesarean delivery. We included 483 external cephalic versions in this study, representing 53.1% of all external cephalic version attempts. The incidence of cesarean delivery for 139 women (29%) who gave birth less than 96 hours from external cephalic version was 16.5%; for 344 women (71%) who gave birth greater than 96 hours from external cephalic version, the incidence of cesarean delivery was 7.8% (P = .004). The adjusted OR for cesarean delivery was 2.541 (95% confidence interval 1.36-4.72). When stratified by parity, the risk for cesarean delivery when delivery occurred less than 96 hours after external cephalic version was 2.97 and 2.28 for nulliparous and multiparous women, respectively. Delivery at less than 96 hours after successful external cephalic version was associated with an increased risk for cesarean delivery. III.

Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dovilė Peškauskaitė

2017-06-01

Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

Developmental transitions in presentations of externalizing problems among boys and girls at risk for child maltreatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Villodas, Miguel T; Litrownik, Alan J; Thompson, Richard; Jones, Deborah; Roesch, Scott C; Hussey, Jon M; Block, Stephanie; English, Diana J; Dubowitz, Howard

2015-02-01

The present study examined the impact of children's maltreatment experiences on the emergence of externalizing problem presentations among children during different developmental periods. The sample included 788 youth and their caregivers who participated in a multisite, prospective study of youth at-risk for maltreatment. Externalizing problems were assessed at ages 4, 8, and 12, and symptoms and diagnoses of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, and conduct disorder were assessed at age 14, during interviews with youth and caregivers. Information about maltreatment allegations was coded from official records. Latent transition analysis identified three groups of youth with similar presentations of externalizing problems ("well adjusted," "hyperactive/oppositional," and "aggressive/rule-breaking") and transitions between groups from ages 4, 8, and 12. A "defiant/deceitful" group also emerged at age 12. Girls were generally more likely to present as well adjusted than boys. Children with recent physical abuse allegations had an increased risk for aggressive/rule-breaking presentations during the preschool and preadolescent years, while children with sexual abuse or neglect allegations had lower probabilities of having well-adjusted presentations during middle childhood. These findings indicate that persistently severe aggressive conduct problems, which are related to the most concerning outcomes, can be identified early, particularly among neglected and physically and sexually abused children.

Risk assessment tools to identify women with increased risk of osteoporotic fracture. Complexity or simplicity?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rubin, Katrine Hass; Friis-Holmberg, Teresa; Hermann, Anne Pernille

2013-01-01

A huge number of risk assessment tools have been developed. Far from all have been validated in external studies, more of them have absence of methodological and transparent evidence and few are integrated in national guidelines. Therefore, we performed a systematic review to provide an overview...... of existing valid and reliable risk assessment tools for prediction of osteoporotic fractures. Additionally, we aimed to determine if the performance each tool was sufficient for practical use and lastly to examine whether the complexity of the tools influenced their discriminative power. We searched Pub......Med, Embase and Cochrane databases for papers and evaluated these with respect to methodological quality using the QUADAS checklist. A total of 48 tools were identified, 20 had been externally validated, however only 6 tools had been tested more than once in a population-based setting with acceptable...

Physics-Based Fragment Acceleration Modeling for Pressurized Tank Burst Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Manning, Ted A.; Lawrence, Scott L.

2014-01-01

As part of comprehensive efforts to develop physics-based risk assessment techniques for space systems at NASA, coupled computational fluid and rigid body dynamic simulations were carried out to investigate the flow mechanisms that accelerate tank fragments in bursting pressurized vessels. Simulations of several configurations were compared to analyses based on the industry-standard Baker explosion model, and were used to formulate an improved version of the model. The standard model, which neglects an external fluid, was found to agree best with simulation results only in configurations where the internal-to-external pressure ratio is very high and fragment curvature is small. The improved model introduces terms that accommodate an external fluid and better account for variations based on circumferential fragment count. Physics-based analysis was critical in increasing the model's range of applicability. The improved tank burst model can be used to produce more accurate risk assessments of space vehicle failure modes that involve high-speed debris, such as exploding propellant tanks and bursting rocket engines.

External cephalic version-related risks: a meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Grootscholten, Kim; Kok, Marjolein; Oei, S Guid; Mol, Ben W J; van der Post, Joris A

2008-11-01

To systematically review the literature on external cephalic version-related complications and to assess if the outcome of a version attempt is related to complications. In March 2007 we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Studies reporting on complications from an external cephalic version attempt for singleton breech pregnancies after 36 weeks of pregnancy were selected. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) from studies that reported both on complications as well as on the position of the fetus immediately after the procedure. We found 84 studies, reporting on 12,955 version attempts that reported on external cephalic version-related complications. The pooled complication rate was 6.1% (95% CI 4.7-7.8), 0.24% for serious complications (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.17-0.34) and 0.35% for emergency cesarean deliveries (95% CI 0.26-0.47). Complications were not related to external cephalic version outcome (OR 1.2 (95% CI 0.93-1.7). External cephalic version is a safe procedure. Complications are not related to the fetal position after external cephalic version.

Health, environmental risks and externalities of nuclear and other energy systems of Russia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasiliev, A.P.; Demin, V.F.

2000-01-01

Due to different reasons the structure of electricity production systems of Russia should be reconsidered and changed. In this reconsideration the results of comparative risk assessment (CRA) and external cost assessment (ECA) are needed. CRA and ECA study has been carried out in the frame of the research program of International Center of Environmental Safety of Ministry of Atomic Energy of Russia. Main directions of this study are: 1) developing CRA and ECA methodology and data base ; 2) performing CRA and ECA for nuclear and other energy systems. Some tendencies in development of electricity production systems in Russia and preliminary results of CRA and ECA are described. (author)

Combining Teacher Assessment Scores with External Examination ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Combining Teacher Assessment Scores with External Examination Scores for Certification: Comparative Study of Four Statistical Models. ... University entrance examination scores in mathematics were obtained for a subsample of 115 ...

The probabilistic risk analysis of external hazards of an interim storage for spent nuclear fuel in Olkiluoto

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Puukka, Tiia

2014-01-01

Due to natural disasters occurred in the world and the experiences perceived of the Fukushima nuclear accident, the particular knowledge of the role and influence of external hazards in the safety of interim storage of spent nuclear fuel has been emphasized. For that reason it is substantial that they are included in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the interim storage facility. This is also required by the Regulatory Guides issued by The Finnish Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority STUK. To enhance safety culture and nuclear safety in Olkiluoto, The Finnish utility Teollisuuden Voima Oyj has recently completed an analysis of external natural (seismic events are studied as a separate analysis) and unintentional human-induced risks associated with the spent fuel pool cooling and decay heat removal systems as part of the full-scope PRA study for the interim storage of spent fuel (KPA store). The analysis had four goals to achieve: (1) to determine the definition of an initiating event in the context of the KPA store, (2) to identify all potential external hazards and hazard combinations, (3) to perform a qualitative screening analysis based on frequency-strength analysis and detailed plant responses analysis and (4) to model the hazards passed the screening analysis so that model can be used as a risk analysis tool in the risk informed decision making and operating procedures. The assessment carried out included the analysis of operation procedures of decay heat removal, the study of external hazards related initiating events included in the PRA of the OL1 and OL2 nuclear power plants and their dependencies on the initiating events of the KPA store. All external hazards related initiating events were modeled using fault tree linking method. The main result and conclusion of this study was that using the screening analysis, initiating events caused by external hazards that could lead to leakage of the spent fuel pools or that could pose a threat to the

Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles.

Science.gov (United States)

Buschgens, Cathelijne J M; van Aken, Marcel A G; Swinkels, Sophie H N; Ormel, Johan; Verhulst, Frank C; Buitelaar, Jan K

2010-07-01

The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large prospective population-based cohort study in the Netherlands (N = 2,230). Regression analyses were used to determine the relative contribution of FR-EXT and perceived parenting styles to parent and teacher ratings of externalizing behaviors. FR-EXT was based on lifetime parental externalizing psychopathology and the different parenting styles (emotional warmth, rejection, and overprotection) were based on the child's perspective. We also investigated whether different dimensions of perceived parenting styles had different effects on subdomains of externalizing behavior. We found main effects for FR-EXT (vs. no FR-EXT), emotional warmth, rejection, and overprotection that were fairly consistent across rater and outcome measures. More specific, emotional warmth was the most consistent predictor of all outcome measures, and rejection was a stronger predictor of aggression and delinquency than of inattention. Interaction effects were found for FR-EXT and perceived parental rejection and overprotection; other interactions between FR-EXT and parenting styles were not significant. Correlations between FR-EXT and perceived parenting styles were absent or very low and were without clinical significance. Predominantly main effects of FR-EXT and perceived parenting styles independently contribute to externalizing behaviors in preadolescents, suggesting FR-EXT and parenting styles to be two separate areas of causality. The relative lack of gene-environment interactions may be due to the epidemiological nature of the study, the preadolescent age of the subjects, the measurement level of parenting and the measurement level of FR-EXT, which might be a consequence of both genetic and

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

Assessment of external dose indoors in Lithuania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pilkyte, L.; Butkus, D.; Morkunas, G.

2006-01-01

The aim of this paper was an assessment of external exposure indoors and its dependence on construction materials and indoor radon concentrations in Lithuanian living houses. Relationship of absorbed dose rate in air indoors and activity indexes of the most commonly used construction materials (wood, concrete and bricks) have been studied using results received in measurements done in >4700 rooms in 1995-2005. Possible connections of dose rate indoors with indoor radon concentrations are also discussed. Findings of this study helped to make an assessment of the mean value of effective dose of Lithuanian population due to external exposure indoors which is equal to 0.58 mSv y -1 . The received data might also be used in improvement of quality of personal dosimetric measurements done in premises constructed of different construction materials. (authors)

ExternE: Externalities of energy Vol. 5. Nuclear

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dreicer, M.; Tort, V.; Manen, P.

1995-01-01

Since the early 1970s, there has been increased interest in the environmental impacts that are caused by the generation of electricity. The comparative risk assessment studies at that time used mainly deaths and injuries as impact indicators. By the end of the 1980s studies changed to the assessment of the costs imposed on society and the environment that were not included in the market price of the energy produced, the so-called external costs. The preliminary studies that were published set the conceptual basis, grounded in neo-classical economics, for the valuation of the health and environmental impacts that could be assessed. As a consequence of the many questions raised by the methodologies employed by these early studies, Directorate General XII (DG XII) of the Commission of the European Communities established a collaborative research programme with the United States Department of Energy to identify an appropriate methodology for this type of work. Following the completion of this collaboration, the DG XII programme has continued as the ExternE project. The main objective of the work carried out at CEPN was to develop an impact pathway methodology for the nuclear fuel cycle that would be consistent with the methodologies developed for other fuel cycles, without loosing the nuclear-specific techniques required for a proper evaluation. In this way, comparisons between the different fuel cycles would be possible. This report presents the methodology and demonstration of the results in the context of the French nuclear fuel cycle. The United States team at Oak Ridge National Laboratory has previously issued a draft report on the results of their assessment. The French fuel cycle was broken down into 8 separate stages. Reference sites and 1990s technology were chosen to represent the total nuclear fuel cycle, as it exists today. In addition, the transportation of material between the sites was considered. The facilities are assessed for routine operation, except

Introduction to Toxicity and Risk Assessment for Project Chemists

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-27

Toxicity of Hexavalent Chromium  External review complete  EPA will wait until studies underway on carcinogenic mode of action are complete to...finalize the assessment  NJ and Cal values for hex chrome 16 Risk-Based Screening Levels Resident Soil (mg/kg) Resident Water Use (µg/L) DRAFT 0.04

A comparison of internal versus external risk-adjustment for monitoring clinical outcomes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koetsier, Antonie; de Keizer, Nicolette; Peek, Niels

2011-01-01

Internal and external prognostic models can be used to calculate severity of illness adjusted mortality risks. However, it is unclear what the consequences are of using an external model instead of an internal model when monitoring an institution's clinical performance. Theoretically, using an

Evaluation of the performance of existing non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background The high burden and rising incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in resource constrained countries necessitates implementation of robust and pragmatic primary and secondary prevention strategies. Many current CVD management guidelines recommend absolute cardiovascular (CV) risk assessment as a clinically sound guide to preventive and treatment strategies. Development of non-laboratory based cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms enable absolute risk assessment in resource constrained countries. The objective of this review is to evaluate the performance of existing non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms using the benchmarks for clinically useful CV risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Methods A literature search to identify non-laboratory based risk prediction algorithms was performed in MEDLINE, CINAHL, Ovid Premier Nursing Journals Plus, and PubMed databases. The identified algorithms were evaluated using the benchmarks for clinically useful cardiovascular risk assessment algorithms outlined by Cooney and colleagues. Results Five non-laboratory based CV risk assessment algorithms were identified. The Gaziano and Framingham algorithms met the criteria for appropriateness of statistical methods used to derive the algorithms and endpoints. The Swedish Consultation, Framingham and Gaziano algorithms demonstrated good discrimination in derivation datasets. Only the Gaziano algorithm was externally validated where it had optimal discrimination. The Gaziano and WHO algorithms had chart formats which made them simple and user friendly for clinical application. Conclusion Both the Gaziano and Framingham non-laboratory based algorithms met most of the criteria outlined by Cooney and colleagues. External validation of the algorithms in diverse samples is needed to ascertain their performance and applicability to different populations and to enhance clinicians’ confidence in them. PMID:24373202

Analytic concepts for assessing risk as applied to human space flight

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1997-01-01

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles provide an effective framework for quantifying individual elements of risk, including the risk to astronauts and spacecraft of the radiation environment of space flight. The concept of QRA is based on a structured set of scenarios that could lead to different damage states initiated by either hardware failure, human error, or external events. In the context of a spacecraft risk assessment, radiation may be considered as an external event and analyzed in the same basic way as any other contributor to risk. It is possible to turn up the microscope on any particular contributor to risk and ask more detailed questions than might be necessary to simply assess safety. The methods of QRA allow for as much fine structure in the analysis as is desired. For the purpose of developing a basis for comprehensive risk management and considering the tendency to open-quotes fear anything nuclear,close quotes radiation risk is a prime candidate for examination beyond that necessary to answer the basic question of risk. Thus, rather than considering only the customary damage states of fatalities or loss of a spacecraft, it is suggested that the full range of damage be analyzed to quantify radiation risk. Radiation dose levels in the form of a risk curve accomplish such a result. If the risk curve is the complementary cumulative distribution function, then it answers the extended question of what is the likelihood of receiving a specific dose of radiation or greater. Such results can be converted to specific health effects as desired. Knowing the full range of the radiation risk of a space mission and the contributors to that risk provides the information necessary to take risk management actions [operational, design, scheduling of missions around solar particle events (SPE), etc.] that clearly control radiation exposure

LCA and external costs in comparative assessment of electricity chains. Decision support for sustainable electricity provision?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Voss, A.

2002-01-01

The provision of energy and electricity plays an important role in a country's economic and environmental performance and the sustainability of its development. Sustainable development of the energy and electricity sector depends on finding ways of meeting energy service demands of the present generation that are economically viable, environmentally sound, and socially acceptable and do not jeopardize the ability of future generations to meet their own energy needs. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and external cost valuation are considered to offer opportunities to assist energy policy in a comprehensive comparative evaluation of electricity supply options with regard to the different dimensions of sustainable energy provision as well as in the implementation of appropriate internalization strategies. The paper addresses life cycle assessment and external cost analysis carried out for selected electricity systems of interest under German conditions. Results from a comprehensive comparative assessment of various electricity supply options with regard to their environmental impacts, health risks, raw materials requirements as well as their resulting external cost will be summarised. The use of LCA based indicators for assessing the relative sustainability of electricity systems and the use of total (internal plus external) cost assessment as measure of economic and environmental efficiency of energy systems will be discussed. Open problems related to life cycle analysis of energy chains and the assessment of environmental damage costs are critically reviewed, to illustrate how in spite of existing uncertainties the state of the art results may provide helpful energy policy decision support. The paper starts with some remarks on what the concept of sustainability in terms of energy systems means. (author)

Determinants of Dermal Exposure Relevant for Exposure Modelling in Regulatory Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, J.; Brouwer, D.H.; Gijsbers, J.H.J.; Links, I.H.M.; Warren, N.; Hemmen, J.J. van

2003-01-01

Risk assessment of chemicals requires assessment of the exposure levels of workers. In the absence of adequate specific measured data, models are often used to estimate exposure levels. For dermal exposure only a few models exist, which are not validated externally. In the scope of a large European

Mothers of children with externalizing behavior problems: cognitive risk factors for abuse potential and discipline style and practices.

Science.gov (United States)

McElroy, Erika M; Rodriguez, Christina M

2008-08-01

Utilizing the conceptual framework of the Social Information Processing (SIP) model (Milner, 1993, 2000), associations between cognitive risk factors and child physical abuse risk and maladaptive discipline style and practices were examined in an at-risk population. Seventy-three mothers of 5-12-year-old children, who were identified by their therapist as having an externalizing behavior problem, responded to self-report measures pertaining to cognitive risk factors (empathic perspective taking, frustration tolerance, developmental expectations, parenting locus of control), abuse risk, and discipline style and practices. The Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) provided a confirmation of the child's externalizing behaviors independent of the therapist's assessment. The results of this study suggest several cognitive risk factors significantly predict risk of parental aggression toward children. A parent's ability to empathize and take the perspective of their child, parental locus of control, and parental level of frustration tolerance were significant predictors of abuse potential (accounting for 63% of the variance) and inappropriate discipline practices (accounting for 55% of the variance). Findings of the present study provide support for processes theorized in the SIP model. Specifically, results underscore the potential role of parents' frustration tolerance, developmental expectations, locus of control, and empathy as predictive of abuse potential and disciplinary style in an at-risk sample.

The Externe project. Assessment of the external costs of the natural gas fuel cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holland, M.R.

1997-01-01

A detailed bottom-up methodology for assessment of the external costs of energy has been developed by a multi-disciplinary, pan-European team as part of the European Commissions's JOULE Programme. The consequences of the generation of electricity from fossil, nuclear and renewable technologies, in terms of damages to human health, buildings and the wider environment, have been assessed within a consistent framework. The potential application of the results in cost-benefit analysis, power system optimisation, emissions charging, etc. is also now under investigation. The analysis starts with definition of the fuel cycle, and specification of the technologies and locations to be considered. Results to date show that for typical modern examples of power plants burning different fossil fuels, externalities (including possible global warming effects) are lowest for gas-burning plant. (R.P.)

External fixation of "intertrochanteric" fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

Gani, Naseem Ul; Kangoo, Khursheed Ahmed; Bashir, Arshad; Muzaffer, Rahil; Bhat, Mohammad Farooq; Farooq, Munir; Badoo, Abdul Rashid; Dar, Imtiyaz Hussian; Wani, Mudassir Maqbool

2009-10-10

In developing countries, due to limited availability of modern anesthesia and overcrowding of the hospitals with patients who need surgery, high-risk patients with "intertrochanteric" fractures remain unsuita ble for open reduction and internal fixation.The aim of this study was to analyze the results of external fixation of "intertrochanteric" fractures in high-risk geriatric patients in a developing country.The results of 62 ambulatory high-risk geriatric patients with a mean age of 70 years (range 58-90 years) with "intertrochanteric" fractures, in whom external fixation was performed, are reported.Eight patients died during follow-up due to medical causes unrelated to the surgical procedure. So only 54 patients were available for final assessment. Procedure is simple, performed under local anesthesia, requires less time for surgery and is associated with less blood loss. Good fixation and early ambulation was achieved in most of the patients. Average time to union was 14 weeks. Thirty-one patients developed superficial pin tract infection and 28 patients had average shortening of 15 mm due to impaction and varus angulation. Functional outcome was assessed using Judet's point system. Good to excellent results were achieved in 44 patients.This study demonstrated that external fixation of "intertrochantric" fractures performed under local anesthesia offers significant advantage in ambulatory high-risk geriatric patients especially in a developing country.

EFSA Scientific Committee; Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment Terminology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hald, Tine

of improving the expression and communication of risk and/or uncertainties in the selected opinions. The Scientific Committee concluded that risk assessment terminology is not fully harmonised within EFSA. In part this is caused by sectoral legislation defining specific terminology and international standards......The Scientific Committee of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) reviewed the use of risk assessment terminology within its Scientific Panels. An external report, commissioned by EFSA, analysed 219 opinions published by the Scientific Committee and Panels to recommend possible ways......, the Scientific Committee concludes that particular care must be taken that the principles of CAC, OIE or IPPC are followed strictly. EFSA Scientific Panels should identify which specific approach is most useful in dealing with their individual mandates. The Scientific Committee considered detailed aspects...

Thyroid cancer in the Marshallese: relative risk of short-lived internal emitters and external radiation exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lessard, E.T.; Brill, A.B.; Adams, W.H.

1985-01-01

In a study of the comparative effects of internal versus external irradiation of the thyroid in young people, we determined that the dose from internal irradiation of the thyroid with short-lived internal emitters produced several times less thyroid cancer than did the same dose of radiation given externally. We determined this finding for a group of 85 Marshall Islands children, who were less than 10 years of age at the time of exposure and who were accidentially exposed to internal and external thyroid radiation at an average level of 1400 rad. The external risk coefficient ranged between 2.5 and 4.9 cancers per million person-rad-years at risk, and thus, from our computations, the internal risk coefficient for the Marshallese children was estimated to range between 1.0 and 1.4 cancers per million person-rad-years at risk. In contrast, for individual more than 10 years of age at the time of exposure, the dose from internal irradiation of the thyroid with short-lived internal emitters produced several times more thyroid cancer than did the same dose of radiation given externally. The external risk coefficients for the older age groups were reported in the literature to be in the range of 1.0 to 3.3 cancers per million person-rad-years-at risk. We computed internal risk coefficients of 3.3 to 8.1 cancers per million person-rad-years at risk for adolescent and adult groups. This higher sensitivity to cancer induction in the exposed adolescents and adults, is different from that seen in other exposed groups. 14 refs., 8 tabs

External cephalic version-related risks: a meta-analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grootscholten, K.; Kok, M.; Oei, S.G.; Mol, B.W.J.; Post, van der J.A.

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the literature on external cephalic version–related complications and to assess if the outcome of a version attempt is related to complications. DATA SOURCES: In March 2007 we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials.

External Cephalic Version-Related Risks A Meta-analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grootscholten, Kim; Kok, Marjolein; Oei, S. Guid; Mol, Ben W. J.; van der Post, Joris A.

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the literature on external cephalic version-related complications and to assess if the outcome of a version attempt is related to complications. DATA SOURCES: In March 2007 we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials.

Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-FR-1 source operable unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corporation, I.T.

1994-08-01

This report provides the Qualitative risk assessment (QRA) for the waste sites associated with the 100-FR-1 Operable Unit. The QRA is an evaluation of risk for a predefined set of human and ecological exposure scenarios. It is not intended to replace or be a substitute for a baseline risk assessment. The QRA is streamlined to consider only two human health scenarios (frequent-and occasional-use) with four exposure pathways (soil ingestion, fugitive dust inhalation, inhalation of volatile organics, and external radiation exposure) and a limited ecological evaluation. The use of these scenarios and pathways was agreed to by the 100 Area Tri-Party unit managers

Biomonitoring-based risk assessment for hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD).

Science.gov (United States)

Aylward, Lesa L; Hays, Sean M

2011-06-01

Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) is a brominated flame retardant compound that has been the subject of recent interest and risk assessment efforts due to its detection in a variety of environmental media and in human biological matrices. Because the exposure pathways for HBCD may be varied and exposure estimation uncertain, biomonitoring for HBCD in humans shows promise as a means of reflecting integrated human exposures to HBCD with lower uncertainty than through estimation of external exposures via multiple pathways. Data from numerous biomonitoring studies of HBCD over the past decade indicate that the central tendency of lipid-adjusted serum and human milk concentrations is approximately 1ng/g lipid, with upper bound levels of approximately 20 ng/g lipid. Recent risk assessment evaluations from Health Canada and the European Union have identified points of departure of 10 and 20mg/kg day, respectively, from rat repeated dose studies. The corresponding measured or estimated lipid-adjusted tissue concentrations in the laboratory animals at these points of departure range from 120,000 to 190,000 ng/g lipid. In comparison to these concentrations, the biomonitored human serum and milk concentrations indicate margins of exposure (MOEs) of 6000 to more than 100,000, which are greatly in excess of target MOE values. The use of internal dose measures (both from measurements of tissue concentrations in animal toxicology studies and from human biomonitoring studies) provides risk managers with highly relevant exposure information that is less uncertain than estimated external doses. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

EXTERNAL VALIDATION OF THE DIABETES EARLY READMISSION RISK INDICATOR (DERRI™).

Science.gov (United States)

Rubin, Daniel J; Recco, Dominic; Turchin, Alexander; Zhao, Huaqing; Golden, Sherita Hill

2018-04-06

The Diabetes Early Readmission Risk Indicator (DERRI ™ ) was previously developed and internally validated as a tool to predict the risk of all-cause readmission within 30 days of discharge (30-d readmission) of hospitalized patients with diabetes. In this study, the predictive performance of the DERRI ™ with and without additional predictors was assessed in an external sample. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with diabetes discharged from 2 academic medical centers between 1/1/2000 and 12/31/2014. We applied the previously developed DERRI ™ , which includes admission laboratory results, sociodemographics, a diagnosis of certain comorbidities, and recent discharge information, and evaluated the effect of adding metabolic indicators on predictive performance using multivariable logistic regression. Total cholesterol and A1c were selected based on clinical relevance and univariate association with 30-d readmission. Among 105,974 discharges, 19,032 (18.0%) were followed by 30-d readmission for any cause. The DERRI ™ had a C-statistic of 0.634 for 30-d readmission. Total cholesterol (TC) was the lipid parameter most strongly associated with 30-d readmission. The DERRI ™ predictors, A1c, and TC were significantly associated with 30-d readmission; however, their addition to the DERRI ™ did not significantly change model performance (C-statistic 0.643 [95% CI, 0.638-0.647], p=0.92). Performance of the DERRI ™ in this external cohort was modest but comparable to other readmission prediction models. Addition of A1c and TC to the DERRI ™ did not significantly improve performance. Although the DERRI ™ may be useful to direct resources toward diabetes patients at higher risk, better prediction is needed. DERRI = Diabetes Early Readmission Risk Indicator; TC = Total cholesterol; A1c = hemoglobin A1c; HDL-C = high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; LDL-C = low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; DKA = diabetic ketoacidosis; HHS

The influence of external factors on the credit risk in leasing industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gholamreza Farsad Amanollahi

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Credit risk consists of probability of non-return, which may be in the form of bankruptcy or a decrease in financial and credit situation of the lessee. The variables are extracted from the Central Bank. In this study the independent variables are measured with six factors that are called external factors. The external factors are size of leasing, ownership interest rate, foreign exchange, inflation, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP. The present study uses related observations from 31 leasing companies from 2008 to 2013 to find out the determinants of the credit risk. The combined evidences suggest that internal factors such as upfront prepayment, credit insurance contract, security deposits, time and period contract, collateral and guarantees, contract amount, as well as external factors such as interest rate, inflation, foreign exchange, Gross Domestic Product infrastructure, and credit risk are determinants in the policy-making process involving the industrial leasing. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate the size of leasing and ownership are not the significant determinants of credit risk. The results of this dissertation provide several implications for policy-makers in the leasing industry. Policy-makers will be better off employing different procedures for leasing activities in the leasing industry.

Assessment of environmental external effects in the production of energy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schleisner, L.; Meyer, H.J.; Morthorst, P.E.

1995-01-01

A project in Denmark has been carried out with the purpose to assess the environmental damages and the external costs in the production of energy. The energy production technologies that will be reported in this paper are wind power and a conventional coal fired plant. In the project the environm......A project in Denmark has been carried out with the purpose to assess the environmental damages and the external costs in the production of energy. The energy production technologies that will be reported in this paper are wind power and a conventional coal fired plant. In the project...... the environmental damages for the energy production technologies are compared, and externalities in the production of energy using renewable energy and fossil fuels are identified, estimated and monetized....

Differences in methodologies used for externality assessment. Why are the numbers different?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schleisner, Lotte

1999-06-01

During the last few years, externalities related to power production technologies have been calculated making use of different methodologies. The external costs may turn out to be very different for the same fuel cycle depending on the methodology that has been used to assess the externalities. The report gives a review of different valuation issues, which are used in different externality studies and focuses on why the numbers often are different for the same fuel cycle, using different methodologies for assessment of the externalities. The review of externality valuation focuses in this report on the assessment of environmental externalities. Importance has been attached to health effects, as these are the dominating effects in the external costs. Other effects are only mentioned on a superior level. The report points out different parameters, which are important to consider when externalities estimated for the same fuel cycle in different studies are compared. 8 studies have been chosen for further analysis and comparison in order to show the variation in external costs. The comparison shows the importance of possessing knowledge of which kind of methodologies have been used, which impacts are included etc. to explain why the numbers vary so much in different studies for the same fuel cycle. As an example a comparison of the impacts and damage costs related to air emissions has been made for three studies using different methodologies. The external costs are estimated for the same reference plant using the dispersion models, dose-response functions, impacts and monetary values from the three studies. The estimates from the three studies are compared two and two, and a more detailed analysis is performed in relation to human health, which is the dominating impact in all externality studies. (au) EFP-97. 29 tabs., 12 ills., 34 refs.

Differences in methodologies used for externality assessment. Why are the numbers different?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schleisner, Lotte

1999-06-01

During the last few years, externalities related to power production technologies have been calculated making use of different methodologies. The external costs may turn out to be very different for the same fuel cycle depending on the methodology that has been used to assess the externalities. The report gives a review of different valuation issues, which are used in different externality studies and focuses on why the numbers often are different for the same fuel cycle, using different methodologies for assessment of the externalities. The review of externality valuation focuses in this report on the assessment of environmental externalities. Importance has been attached to health effects, as these are the dominating effects in the external costs. Other effects are only mentioned on a superior level. The report points out different parameters, which are important to consider when externalities estimated for the same fuel cycle in different studies are compared. 8 studies have been chosen for further analysis and comparison in order to show the variation in external costs. The comparison shows the importance of possessing knowledge of which kind of methodologies have been used, which impacts are included etc. to explain why the numbers vary so much in different studies for the same fuel cycle. As an example a comparison of the impacts and damage costs related to air emissions has been made for three studies using different methodologies. The external costs are estimated for the same reference plant using the dispersion models, dose-response functions, impacts and monetary values from the three studies. The estimates from the three studies are compared two and two, and a more detailed analysis is performed in relation to human health, which is the dominating impact in all externality studies. (au) EFP-97. 29 tabs., 12 ills., 34 refs

Early cumulative risk predicts externalizing behavior at age 10: The mediating role of adverse parenting.

Science.gov (United States)

Gach, Emily J; Ip, Ka I; Sameroff, Arnold J; Olson, Sheryl L

2018-02-01

Multiple environmental risk factors in early childhood predict a broad range of adverse developmental outcomes. However, most prior longitudinal research has not illuminated explanatory mechanisms. Our main goals were to examine predictive associations between cumulative ecological risk factors in early childhood and children's later externalizing problems and to determine whether these associations were explained by variations in parenting quality. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) at risk for school-age conduct problems and their parents and teachers. Children were approximately 3 years old at Time 1 (T1) and 10 years old at Time 2 (T2). Reports of contextual risk at T1 were used to develop a cumulative risk index consisting of 6 singular risk variables from 3 ecological levels: social resources (low income; social isolation), family resources (marital aggression; poor total family functioning), and maternal resources (single parent status; poor maternal mental health). At T1, parenting variables were measured (corporal punishment, warm responsiveness, maternal efficacy, and negative perceptions of child behavior). At T2, mothers, fathers, and teachers reported child externalizing problems. Johnson's relative weight analysis revealed that the cumulative risk index was a more powerful predictor of age 10 years externalizing behavior than any of the singular contextual risk variables. Adverse parenting mediated the effects of cumulative risk on later child externalizing problems. Our findings have significant implications for understanding long-term effects of multiple contextual risk factors present in early childhood and for the implementation of positive parenting interventions early on. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Thyroid cancer in the Marshallese: relative risk of short-lived internal emitters and external radiation exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lessard, E.T.; Brill, A.B.; Adams, W.H.

1986-01-01

In a study of the comparative effects of internal versus external irradiation of the thyroid in young people, we determined that the dose from internal irradiation of the thyroid with short-lived internal emitters produced several times less thyroid cancer than did the same dose of radiation given externally. The authors determined this finding for a group of 85 Marshall Islands children, who were less than 10 years of age at the time of exposure and who were accidentally exposed to internal and external thyroid radiation at an average level of 1400 rad. The external risk coefficient ranged between 2.5 and 4.9 cancers per million person-rad-years at risk, and thus, from our computations, the internal risk coefficient for the Marshallese children was estimated to range between 1.0 and 1.4 cancers per million person-rad-years at risk. In contrast, for individuals more than 10 years of age at the time of exposure, the dose from internal irradiation of the thyroid with short-lived internal emitters produced several times more thyroid cancer than did the same dose of radiation given externally. The external risk coefficients for the older age groups were reported in the above literature to be in the range of 1.0 to 3.3 cancers per million person-rad-years-at risk. The authors computed internal risk coefficients of 3.3 to 8.1 cancers per million person-rad-years at risk for adolescent and adult groups. This higher sensitivity to cancer induction in the exposed adolescents and adults, is different from that seen in other exposed groups. The small number of cancers in the exposed population and the influence of increased levels of TSH, nonuniform irradiation of the thyroid, and thyroid cell killing at high dose make it difficult to draw firm conclusions from these studies. 14 references, 8 tables

Assessment of environmental external effects in power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, H.; Morthorst, P.E.; Schleisner, L.; Meyer, N.I.; Nielsen, P.S.; Nielsen, V.

1996-12-01

This report summarises some of the results achieved in a project carried out in Denmark in 1994 concerning externalities. The main objective was to identify, quantify and - if possible - monetize the external effects in the production of energy, especially in relation to renewable technologies. The report compares environmental externalities in the production of energy using renewable and non-renewable energy sources, respectively. The comparison is demonstrated on two specific case studies. The first case is the production of electricity based on wind power plants compared to the production of electricity based on a coal-fired conventional plant. In the second case heat/power generation by means of a combined heat and power plant based on biomass-generated gas is compared to that of a combined heat and power plant fuelled by natural gas. In the report the individual externalities from the different ways of producing energy are identified, the stress caused by the effect is assessed, and finally the monetary value of the damage is estimated. The method is applied to the local as well as the regional and global externalities. (au) 8 tabs., 7 ills., 4 refs

Assessment of environmental external effects in power generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meyer, H.; Morthorst, P.E.; Schleisner, L. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Meyer, N.I.; Nielsen, P.S.; Nielsen, V. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark (Denmark)

1996-12-01

This report summarises some of the results achieved in a project carried out in Denmark in 1994 concerning externalities. The main objective was to identify, quantify and - if possible - monetize the external effects in the production of energy, especially in relation to renewable technologies. The report compares environmental externalities in the production of energy using renewable and non-renewable energy sources, respectively. The comparison is demonstrated on two specific case studies. The first case is the production of electricity based on wind power plants compared to the production of electricity based on a coal-fired conventional plant. In the second case heat/power generation by means of a combined heat and power plant based on biomass-generated gas is compared to that of a combined heat and power plant fuelled by natural gas. In the report the individual externalities from the different ways of producing energy are identified, the stress caused by the effect is assessed, and finally the monetary value of the damage is estimated. The method is applied to the local as well as the regional and global externalities. (au) 8 tabs., 7 ills., 4 refs.

Pipeline external corrosion direct assessment methodology: lessons learned - part 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kowalski, Angel R. [DNV Columbus, Inc., OH (United States)

2009-07-01

DNV Columbus (Former CC Technologies) played a key role in the development of Direct Assessment (DA) methodologies, providing leadership in the NACE technical committees charged with development of DA standards. Since the first publication of NACE Standard RP-0502-2002, External Corrosion Direct Assessment (ECDA) has been successfully applied over a great number of pipelines to evaluate the impact of external corrosion on the pipeline integrity. This paper summarizes the results of applying ECDA over a selected number of underground pipelines and presents interesting facts about the methodology. (author)

External dose assessment in the Ukraine following the Chernobyl accident

Science.gov (United States)

Frazier, Remi Jordan Lesartre

While the physiological effects of radiation exposure have been well characterized in general, it remains unclear what the relationship is between large-scale radiological events and psychosocial behavior outcomes in individuals or populations. To investigate this, the National Science Foundation funded a research project in 2008 at the University of Colorado in collaboration with Colorado State University to expand the knowledge of complex interactions between radiation exposure, perception of risk, and psychosocial behavior outcomes by modeling outcomes for a representative sample of the population of the Ukraine which had been exposed to radiocontaminant materials released by the reactor accident at Chernobyl on 26 April 1986. In service of this project, a methodology (based substantially on previously published models specific to the Chernobyl disaster and the Ukrainian population) was developed for daily cumulative effective external dose and dose rate assessment for individuals in the Ukraine for as a result of the Chernobyl disaster. A software platform was designed and produced to estimate effective external dose and dose rate for individuals based on their age, occupation, and location of residence on each day between 26 April 1986 and 31 December 2009. A methodology was developed to transform published 137Cs soil deposition contour maps from the Comprehensive Atlas of Caesium Deposition on Europe after the Chernobyl Accident into a geospatial database to access these data as a radiological source term. Cumulative effective external dose and dose rate were computed for each individual in a 703-member cohort of Ukrainians randomly selected to be representative of the population of the country as a whole. Error was estimated for the resulting individual dose and dose rate values with Monte Carlo simulations. Distributions of input parameters for the dose assessment methodology were compared to computed dose and dose rate estimates to determine which

External fixation of “intertrochanteric” fractures

Science.gov (United States)

Gani, Naseem ul; Kangoo, Khursheed Ahmed; Bashir, Arshad; Muzaffer, Rahil; Bhat, Mohammad Farooq; Farooq, Munir; Badoo, Abdul Rashid; Dar, Imtiyaz Hussian; Wani, Mudassir Maqbool

2009-01-01

In developing countries, due to limited availability of modern anesthesia and overcrowding of the hospitals with patients who need surgery, high-risk patients with “intertrochanteric” fractures remain unsuita ble for open reduction and internal fixation. The aim of this study was to analyze the results of external fixation of “intertrochanteric” fractures in high-risk geriatric patients in a developing country. The results of 62 ambulatory high-risk geriatric patients with a mean age of 70 years (range 58–90 years) with “intertrochanteric” fractures, in whom external fixation was performed, are reported. Eight patients died during follow-up due to medical causes unrelated to the surgical procedure. So only 54 patients were available for final assessment. Procedure is simple, performed under local anesthesia, requires less time for surgery and is associated with less blood loss. Good fixation and early ambulation was achieved in most of the patients. Average time to union was 14 weeks. Thirty-one patients developed superficial pin tract infection and 28 patients had average shortening of 15 mm due to impaction and varus angulation. Functional outcome was assessed using Judet's point system. Good to excellent results were achieved in 44 patients. This study demonstrated that external fixation of “intertrochantric” fractures performed under local anesthesia offers significant advantage in ambulatory high-risk geriatric patients especially in a developing country. PMID:21808680

External fixation of “intertrochanteric” fractures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naseem ul Gani

2009-08-01

Full Text Available In developing countries, due to limited availability of modern anesthesia and overcrowding of the hospitals with patients who need surgery, high-risk patients with “intertro-chanteric” fractures remain unsuitable for open reduction and internal fixation. The aim of this study was to analyze the results of external fixation of “intertro-chanteric” fractures in high-risk geriatric patients in a developing country. The results of 62 ambulatory high-risk geriatric patients with a mean age of 70 years (range 58-90 years with “intertrochanteric” fractures, in whom external fixation was performed, are reported. Eight patients died during follow-up due to medical causes unrelated to the surgical procedure. So only 54 patients were available for final assessment. Procedure is simple, performed under local anesthesia, requires less time for surgery and is associated with less blood loss. Good fixation and early ambulation was achieved in most of the patients. Average time to union was 14 weeks. Thirty-one patients developed superficial pin tract infection and 28 patients had average shortening of 15 mm due to impaction and varus angulation. Functional outcome was assessed using Judet’s point system. Good to excellent results were achieved in 44 patients. This study demonstrated that external fixation of “intertrochantric” fractures performed under local anesthesia offers significant advantage in ambulatory high-risk geriatric patients especially in a developing country.

Lack of grading agreement among international hemostasis external quality assessment programs

OpenAIRE

Olson, John D.; Jennings, Ian; Meijer, Piet; Bon, Chantal; Bonar, Roslyn; Favaloro, Emmanuel J.; Higgins, Russell A.; Keeney, Michael; Mammen, Joy; Marlar, Richard A.; Meley, Roland; Nair, Sukesh C.; Nichols, William L.; Raby, Anne; Reverter, Joan C.

2018-01-01

Laboratory quality programs rely on internal quality control and external quality assessment (EQA). EQA programs provide unknown specimens for the laboratory to test. The laboratory's result is compared with other (peer) laboratories performing the same test. EQA programs assign target values using a variety of methods statistical tools and performance assessment of ‘pass’ or ‘fail’ is made. EQA provider members of the international organization, external quality assurance in thrombosis and h...

The Association between Positive Parenting and Externalizing Behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Boeldt, Debra L; Rhee, Soo Hyun; Dilalla, Lisabeth F; Mullineaux, Paula Y; Schulz-Heik, R Jay; Corley, Robin P; Young, Susan E; Hewitt, John K

2012-01-01

The present study examined the role of positive parenting on externalizing behaviors in a longitudinal, genetically informative sample. It often is assumed that positive parenting prevents behavior problems in children via an environmentally mediated process. Alternatively, the association may be due to either an evocative gene-environment correlation, in which parents react to children's genetically-influenced behavior in a positive way, or a passive gene-environment correlation, where parents passively transmit a risk environment and the genetic risk factor for the behavioral outcome to their children. The present study estimated the contribution of these processes in the association between positive parenting and children's externalizing behavior. Positive parenting was assessed via observations at ages 7, 9, 14, 24, and 36 months and externalizing behaviors were assessed through parent report at ages 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, and 12 years. The significant association between positive parenting and externalizing behavior was negative, with children of mothers who showed significantly more positive parenting during toddlerhood having lower levels of externalizing behavior in childhood; however, there was not adequate power to distinguish whether this covariation was due to genetic, shared environmental, or nonshared environmental influences.

Repeated exposure to high-frequency spanking and child externalizing behavior across the first decade: a moderating role for cumulative risk.

Science.gov (United States)

MacKenzie, Michael J; Nicklas, Eric; Brooks-Gunn, Jeanne; Waldfogel, Jane

2014-12-01

This study used the Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study to examine the effects of repeated exposure to harsh parenting on child externalizing behavior across the first decade of life, and a moderating role for cumulative ecological risk. Maternal report of harsh parenting, defined as high frequency spanking, was assessed at age 1, 3, 5, and 9, along with child externalizing at age 9 (N=2,768). Controlling for gender, race, maternal nativity, and city of residence, we found a cumulative risk index to significantly moderate the effects of repeated harsh parenting on child behavior, with the effects of repeated high-frequency spanking being amplified for those experiencing greater levels of cumulative risk. Harsh parenting, in the form of high frequency spanking, remains a too common experience for children, and results demonstrate that the effects of repeated exposure to harsh parenting across the first decade are amplified for those children already facing the most burden. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Environmental external effects from wind power based on the EU ExternE methodology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ibsen, Liselotte Schleisner; Nielsen, Per Sieverts

1998-01-01

of the Danish part of the project is to implement the framework for externality evaluation, for three different power plants located in Denmark. The paper will focus on the assessment of the impacts of the whole fuel cycles for wind, natural gas and biogas. Priority areas for environmental impact assessment......The European Commission has launched a major study project, ExternE, to develop a methodology to quantify externalities. A “National Implementation Phase”, was started under the Joule II programme with the purpose of implementing the ExternE methodology in all member states. The main objective...

76 FR 67439 - External Peer Review Meeting for Draft Microbial Risk Assessment Guideline: Pathogenic...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-01

... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-ORD-2011-053; FRL-9485-1] External Peer Review Meeting for... review draft does not represent EPA policy. The public may register to attend this peer review meeting as... to consider the comments from the external peer review meeting, along with public comments received...

Corporate risk and external sourcing: A study of Scandinavian multinational firms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos; Sørensen, Helle

2016-01-01

data by surveying Scandinavian non-financial firms. We find that highly international firms reduce corporate risk by externally sourcing from foreign suppliers both compared to sourcing from own production facilities abroad (due to superior flexibility) and compared to domestic sourcing (due...

The Relationship Between the Genetic and Environmental Influences on Common Externalizing Psychopathology and Mental Wellbeing

Science.gov (United States)

Kendler, Kenneth S.; Myers, John M.; Keyes, Corey L. M.

2012-01-01

To determine the relationship between the genetic and environmental risk factors for externalizing psychopathology and mental wellbeing, we examined detailed measures of emotional, social and psychological wellbeing, and a history of alcohol-related problems and smoking behavior in the last year in 1,386 individual twins from same-sex pairs from the MIDUS national US sample assessed in 1995. Cholesky decomposition analyses were performed with the Mx program. The best fit model contained one highly heritable common externalizing psychopathology factor for both substance use/abuse measures, and one strongly heritable common factor for the three wellbeing measures. Genetic and environmental risk factors for externalizing psychopathology were both negatively associated with levels of mental wellbeing and accounted for, respectively, 7% and 21% of its genetic and environmental influences. Adding internalizing psychopathology assessed in the last year to the model, genetic risk factors unique for externalizing psychopathology were now positively related to levels of mental wellbeing, although accounting for only 5% of the genetic variance. Environmental risk factors unique to externalizing psychopathology continued to be negatively associated with mental wellbeing, accounting for 26% of the environmental variance. When both internalizing psychopathology and externalizing psychopathology are associated with mental wellbeing, the strongest risk factors for low mental wellbeing are genetic factors that impact on both internalizing psychopathology and externalizing psychopathology, and environmental factors unique to externalizing psychopathology. In this model, genetic risk factors for externalizing psychopathology predict, albeit weakly, higher levels of mental wellbeing. PMID:22506307

STUDENTS’ COMMUNICATION SKILLS ASSESSMENT BY EXTERNAL LECTURERS AND INDUSTRY REPRESENTATIVES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NOORFAZILA KAMAL

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Soft skills, especially communication skills, are important skills which each graduate must possess. Accordingly, several courses and approaches have been carried out in universities to train students in communication skills. The skills are normally evaluated by course lecturers. However, assessments by a third party from outside the university are valuable so that the students’ ahievements may be weighed against external evaluators’ point of views. In the Department of Electrical, Electronic and Systems Engineering (DEESE, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM, communication skills assessment by external lecturers and industry representatives are performed on Hari Poster JKEES, where students present their final year project poster. There are two categories of evaluation, namely project and communication skills. The project evaluation covers content, result and impact, while communication skills evaluation covers poster layout and design, and delivery. This study only analyse the students’ communication skills achievement. The participants of this study consists of 109 final year students from two batches, of which 51 students are from year 2014 and the other 58 students from year 2015. The results show that for the year 2014 students, the mean mark given by external lecturers in layout and design category is 6.7, while the mean mark from industry evaluators is 6.5. For the 2015 batch, the mean mark in the layout and design category is 6.3 from external lecturers and 5.9 from industry evaluators. In the delivery category, the mean marks for the 2014 batch are 7.1 and 6.6 from external lecturers and industry evaluators, espectively. Meanwhile, for the 2015 batch, the mean marks by external lecturers and industry evaluators are 6.3 and 5.8, respectively. The results show that both external lecturers and industry representatives judged DEESE students’ communication skills to be good.

A Comparative Risk Assessment of Extended Integrated Leak Rate Testing Intervals

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oh, Ji Yong; Hwang, Seok Won; Lee, Byung Sik [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2009-10-15

This paper presents the risk impacts of extending the Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) intervals (from five years to ten years) of Yonggwang (YGN) Unit 1 and 2. These risk impacts depended on the annual variances of meteorological data and resident population. Main comparisons were performed between the initial risk assessment (2005) for the purpose of extending ILRT interval and risk reassessment (2009) where the changed plant internal configurations (core inventory and radioisotope release fraction) and plant external alterations (wind directions, rainfall and population distributions) were monitored. The reassessment showed that there was imperceptible risk increase when the ILRT interval was extended compared to the initial risk assessment. In addition, the increased value of the Large Early Release Frequency (LERF) also satisfied the acceptance guideline proposed on Reg. Guide 1.174. The MACCS II code was used for evaluating the offsite consequence analysis. The primary risk index were used as the Probabilistic Population Dose (PPD) by considering the early effects within 80 km. The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of YGN 1 and 2 was applied to evaluate the accident frequency of each source term category and the used PSA scope was limited to internal event.

Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

2006-01-01

for various types of equipment and piping and for operations performed by operators, and was obtained through sensitivity analysis, such as the influence of change in the maintenance periods of the occurrence frequency. This information might be of use for operation management. On the other hand, in order to have grasp of the risk profile at a reprocessing plant and in order for us to make good use of the risk information, it is also necessary to conduct risk assessments for incidents other than major accidents. Since it is appropriate to use a Graded Approach to assess the risks of such a large number of incidents effectively and efficiently, a simplified method, called ''improved risk index method'' was developed. It based on the Risk Index Method recommended by U.S. NRC. The Risk Index Method is simple and is appropriate for fuel cycle facilities where a wide variety of accidents may occur, but it is characterized by the fact that it requires engineering judgments by analysts when assessing the occurrence frequency, and the common components between the safety measures (the subordinacy) are difficult to clarify. In order to solve the problems inherent in the Risk Index Method, quantification, flexibility and traceability have been improved while maintaining its advantages. Currently, risk assessments for a wide variety of incidents and accidents are being conducted using the above mentioned methods and their results will be used for the improvement of operation management. Furthermore, risk assessments for external incidents (earthquakes, etc.) are being planned

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

The assessment of personal dose due to external radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boas, J.F.; Young, J.G.

1990-01-01

The fundamental basis of thermoluminescent dosimetry (TLD) is discussed and a number of considerations in the measurement of thermoluminescence described, with particular reference to CaSO 4 :Dy. The steps taken to convert a thermoluminescence measurement to an exposure and then an absorbed dose are outlined. The calculation of effective dose equivalents due to external exposure to γ-radiation in a number of situations commonly encountered in a uranium mine is discussed. Factors which may affect the accuracy of external dose assessments are described

76 FR 44586 - Notice of Availability of the External Review Draft of the Microbial Risk Assessment Guideline...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-26

... assessments will foster better interaction among participating agencies leading to a more efficient and... document addresses the full range of microbial risk assessment topics: Definition of the roles and...

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

From IPE [individual plant examinations] to IPEEE [individual plant examination of external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Newton, I.M.

1994-01-01

In addition to doing individual plant examinations (IPEs) which assess risk to nuclear plants from internal factors, all US plants are now also required to analyse external events and submit an IPEEE (Individual Plant Examination of External Events). Specifically, the IPEEEs require an assessment of plant-specific risks from the following types of initiating events: seismic events; fire; wind; tornadoes; flooding; accidents involving transportation or nearby facilities, such as oil refineries. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kwag, Shinyoung [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Gupta, Abhinav, E-mail: agupta1@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

2017-04-15

Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwag, Shinyoung; Gupta, Abhinav

2017-01-01

Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

Predictive Accuracy of the PanCan Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model -External Validation based on CT from the Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wille, M.M.W.; Riel, S.J. van; Saghir, Z.; Dirksen, A.; Pedersen, J.H.; Jacobs, C.; Thomsen, L.H.u.; Scholten, E.T.; Skovgaard, L.T.; Ginneken, B. van

2015-01-01

Lung cancer risk models should be externally validated to test generalizability and clinical usefulness. The Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial (DLCST) is a population-based prospective cohort study, used to assess the discriminative performances of the PanCan models.From the DLCST database, 1,152

Integration of risk aversion in the evaluation of the external cost of a nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eeckhoudt, L.; Schieber, C.; Schneider, Th.

1998-01-01

Full text of publication follows: the external costs of fuel cycles used in the production of electricity are those imposed on society and environment that are not accounted for by the producers and consumers of energy. Within the evaluation of the external cost of the nuclear fuel cycle, the evaluation of a nuclear accident has to be addressed. For this purpose, the basic approach consists in calculating the expected value of various occident scenarios. the main criticism of this approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the average monetary value which corresponds in principle to the compensation of the consequences for each individual of the population affected by the accident. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for the integration of risk aversion, relying on the expected utility approach, as well as a numerical application based on the French data for the external cost of a nuclear accident. Although a huge range of values has been published for the relative risk aversion coefficient, it seems reasonable to adopt a value of 2 for the specific case of nuclear accident. This leads to an estimated multiplying coefficient approximately equal to 20 to be applied to the expected external cost of a nuclear accident corresponding to a release of about 1% of the core. In this case, the external cost of the nuclear accident is estimated to 0.046 mECU/kWh (i.e. about 50% of the total external costs of the nuclear fuel cycle estimated at 0.1 mECU/kWh with a 3% discount rate), instead of 0.0023 mECU/kWh without taking into account risk aversion. (authors)

External validation of models predicting the individual risk of metachronous peritoneal carcinomatosis from colon and rectal cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Segelman, J; Akre, O; Gustafsson, U O; Bottai, M; Martling, A

2016-04-01

To externally validate previously published predictive models of the risk of developing metachronous peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) after resection of nonmetastatic colon or rectal cancer and to update the predictive model for colon cancer by adding new prognostic predictors. Data from all patients with Stage I-III colorectal cancer identified from a population-based database in Stockholm between 2008 and 2010 were used. We assessed the concordance between the predicted and observed probabilities of PC and utilized proportional-hazard regression to update the predictive model for colon cancer. When applied to the new validation dataset (n = 2011), the colon and rectal cancer risk-score models predicted metachronous PC with a concordance index of 79% and 67%, respectively. After adding the subclasses of pT3 and pT4 stage and mucinous tumour to the colon cancer model, the concordance index increased to 82%. In validation of external and recent cohorts, the predictive accuracy was strong in colon cancer and moderate in rectal cancer patients. The model can be used to identify high-risk patients for planned second-look laparoscopy/laparotomy for possible subsequent cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

A TCP model for external beam treatment of intermediate-risk prostate cancer.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Walsh, Seán

2013-03-01

Biological models offer the ability to predict clinical outcomes. The authors describe a model to predict the clinical response of intermediate-risk prostate cancer to external beam radiotherapy for a variety of fractionation regimes.

The Association between Positive Parenting and Externalizing Behavior1

Science.gov (United States)

Boeldt, Debra L.; Rhee, Soo Hyun; DiLalla, Lisabeth F.; Mullineaux, Paula Y.; Schulz-Heik, R. Jay; Corley, Robin P.; Young, Susan E.; Hewitt, John. K.

2011-01-01

The present study examined the role of positive parenting on externalizing behaviors in a longitudinal, genetically informative sample. It often is assumed that positive parenting prevents behavior problems in children via an environmentally mediated process. Alternatively, the association may be due to either an evocative gene-environment correlation, in which parents react to children’s genetically-influenced behavior in a positive way, or a passive gene-environment correlation, where parents passively transmit a risk environment and the genetic risk factor for the behavioral outcome to their children. The present study estimated the contribution of these processes in the association between positive parenting and children’s externalizing behavior. Positive parenting was assessed via observations at ages 7, 9, 14, 24, and 36 months and externalizing behaviors were assessed through parent report at ages 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, and 12 years. The significant association between positive parenting and externalizing behavior was negative, with children of mothers who showed significantly more positive parenting during toddlerhood having lower levels of externalizing behavior in childhood; however, there was not adequate power to distinguish whether this covariation was due to genetic, shared environmental, or nonshared environmental influences. PMID:22577341

Laboratory diagnosis of the rare anaemias: external quality assessment benefits patient care

OpenAIRE

Barbara De La Salle; Andrea Mosca; Renata Paleari; Vasileios Rapanakis; Keith Hyde

2013-01-01

Since its introduction in the 1960s, external quality assessment has developed to become an essential component of the quality management system of the diagnostic laboratory. External quality assessment provides a long term, retrospective view of laboratory performance, demonstrating the competence of the laboratory to others. The ENERCA project (the European Network for Rare and Congenital Anaemias) has established a list of core laboratory tests that are used in the diagnosis of rare and co...

Pipeline integrity management: integration of geotechnical and mechanical assessment to control potential risks due to external forces

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Malpartida Moya, John E.; Sota, Giancarlo Massucco de la; Seri, Walter [Compania Operadora de Gas del Amazonas, Lima (Peru)

2009-07-01

Every pipeline integrity management system evaluates and controls various threats. On pipelines which have particular characteristics as it is the case of the Andean pipelines and pipelines crossing jungles, one of the main threats are the external forces. Even, this threat causes a greater number of failures than other threats like corrosion or the third part damage. Facing this situation, the pipeline integrity management system of TgP has achieved an important development in the use and suitable handling of the information provided by diverse techniques of pipeline mechanical inspection and geotechnical inspection of the right-of-way (ROW). This document presents our methodology, which interrelate information of the in-line inspection, information of geotechnical inspections of the ROW, instrumentation (Strain Gages), topographic monitoring, among others. All this information is supported in a Geographic Information System (GIS) which allows us to integrate the information. By means of the pipeline integrity management system we control potential risks due to external forces, we have been able to act before events become critical, with no occurrence of failures. This system allows us simultaneously to optimize efforts and preserve the mechanical integrity of our pipelines, not producing neither personal nor environmental nor economical affectation. (author)

ExternE: Externalities of energy Vol. 2. Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berry, J.; Holland, M.; Watkiss, P.

1995-01-01

This report describes the methodology used by the ExternE Project of the European Commission (DGXII) JOULE Programme for assessment of the external costs of energy. It is one of a series of reports describing analysis of nuclear, fossil and renewable fuel cycles for assessment of the externalities associated with electricity generation. Part I of the report deals with analysis of impacts, and Part II with the economic valuation of those impacts. Analysis is conducted on a marginal basis, to allow the effect of an incremental investment in a given technology to be quantified. Attention has been paid to the specificity of results with respect to the location of fuel cycle activities, the precise technologies used, and the type and source of fuel. The main advantages of this detailed approach are as follows: It takes full and proper account of the variability of impacts that might result from different power projects; It is more transparent than analysis based on hypothetically 'representative' cases for each of the different fuel cycles; It provides a framework for consistent comparison between fuel cycles. A wide variety of impacts have been considered. These include the effects of air pollution on the natural and human environment, consequences of accidents in the workplace, impacts of noise and visual intrusion on amenity, and the effects of climate change arising from the release of greenhouse gases. Wherever possible we have used the 'impact pathway' or 'damage function' approach to follow the analysis from identification of burdens (e.g. emissions) through to impact assessment and then valuation in monetary terms. This has required a detailed knowledge of the technologies involved, pollutant dispersion, analysis of effects on human and environmental health, and economics. In view of this the project brought together a multi-disciplinary team with experts from many European countries and the USA. The spatial and temporal ranges considered in the analysis are

Review insights on the probabilistic risk assessment for the Limerick Generating Station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-08-01

In recognition of the high population density around the Limerick Generating Station site and the proposed power level, the Philadelphia Electric Company, in response to NRC staff requests, conducted and submitted between March 1981 and November 1983 a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on internal event contributors and a severe accident risk assessment on external event contributors to assess risks posed by operation of the plant. The applicant has developed perspectives using PRA models on the safety profile of the Limerick plant and has altered the plant design to reduce accident vulnerabilities identified in these PRAs. The staff's review of the Limerick PRA has particularly emphasized the dominant accident sequences and the resulting insights into demonstration of compliance with regulatory requirments, unique design features and major plant vulnerabilities to assess the need for any additional measures to further improve the safety of the LGS. The staff's review insights and PRA safety review conclusions are presented in this report

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Risk factors for suicide in offspring bereaved by sudden parental death from external causes.

Science.gov (United States)

Burrell, Lisa Victoria; Mehlum, Lars; Qin, Ping

2017-11-01

Parentally bereaved offspring have an increased suicide risk as a group, but the ability to identify specific individuals at risk on the basis of risk and protective factors is limited. The present study aimed to investigate to what degree different risk factors influence suicide risk in offspring bereaved by parental death from external causes. Based on Norwegian registers, individual-level data were retrieved for 375 parentally bereaved suicide cases and 7500 parentally bereaved gender- and age-matched living controls. Data were analysed with conditional logistic regression. Bereaved offspring with low social support, indicated by offspring's single status and repeated changes in marital status and residence, had a significantly increased suicide risk compared to bereaved offspring with high social support. Moreover, low socioeconomic status, having an immigration background, having lost both parents and loss due to suicide significantly increased suicide risk. Several variables relevant to bereavement outcome, such as coping mechanisms and the quality of the parent-offspring relationship are impossible to examine by utilizing population registers. Moreover, the availability of data did not enable the measurement of marital stability and residence stability across the entire lifespan for older individuals. Healthcare professionals should be aware of the additional risk posed by the identified risk factors and incorporate this knowledge into existing practice and risk assessment in order to identify individuals at risk and effectively target bereaved family and friends for prevention and intervention programs. Ideal follow-up for bereaved families should include a specific focus on mobilizing social support. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of a scenario-based assessment of critical thinking using an externally validated tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Buur, Jennifer L; Schmidt, Peggy; Smylie, Dean; Irizarry, Kris; Crocker, Carlos; Tyler, John; Barr, Margaret

2012-01-01

With medical education transitioning from knowledge-based curricula to competency-based curricula, critical thinking skills have emerged as a major competency. While there are validated external instruments for assessing critical thinking, many educators have created their own custom assessments of critical thinking. However, the face validity of these assessments has not been challenged. The purpose of this study was to compare results from a custom assessment of critical thinking with the results from a validated external instrument of critical thinking. Students from the College of Veterinary Medicine at Western University of Health Sciences were administered a custom assessment of critical thinking (ACT) examination and the externally validated instrument, California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST), in the spring of 2011. Total scores and sub-scores from each exam were analyzed for significant correlations using Pearson correlation coefficients. Significant correlations between ACT Blooms 2 and deductive reasoning and total ACT score and deductive reasoning were demonstrated with correlation coefficients of 0.24 and 0.22, respectively. No other statistically significant correlations were found. The lack of significant correlation between the two examinations illustrates the need in medical education to externally validate internal custom assessments. Ultimately, the development and validation of custom assessments of non-knowledge-based competencies will produce higher quality medical professionals.

Analysis of core damage frequency due to external events at the DOE [Department of Energy] N-Reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lambright, J.A.; Bohn, M.P.; Daniel, S.L.; Baxter, J.T.; Johnson, J.J.; Ravindra, M.K.; Hashimoto, P.O.; Mraz, M.J.; Tong, W.H.; Conoscente, J.P.; Brosseau, D.A.

1990-11-01

A complete external events probabilistic risk assessment has been performed for the N-Reactor power plant, making full use of all insights gained during the past ten years' developments in risk assessment methodologies. A detailed screening analysis was performed which showed that all external events had negligible contribution to core damage frequency except fires, seismic events, and external flooding. A limited scope analysis of the external flooding risk indicated that it is not a major risk contributor. Detailed analyses of the fire and seismic risks resulted in total (mean) core damage frequencies of 1.96E-5 and 4.60E-05 per reactor year, respectively. Detailed uncertainty analyses were performed for both fire and seismic risks. These results show that the core damage frequency profile for these events is comparable to that found for existing commercial power plants if proposed fixes are completed as part of the restart program. 108 refs., 85 figs., 80 tabs

Analysis of core damage frequency due to external events at the DOE (Department of Energy) N-Reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lambright, J.A.; Bohn, M.P.; Daniel, S.L. (Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (USA)); Baxter, J.T. (Westinghouse Hanford Co., Richland, WA (USA)); Johnson, J.J.; Ravindra, M.K.; Hashimoto, P.O.; Mraz, M.J.; Tong, W.H.; Conoscente, J.P. (EQE, Inc., San Francisco, CA (USA)); Brosseau, D.A. (ERCE, Inc., Albuquerque, NM (USA))

1990-11-01

A complete external events probabilistic risk assessment has been performed for the N-Reactor power plant, making full use of all insights gained during the past ten years' developments in risk assessment methodologies. A detailed screening analysis was performed which showed that all external events had negligible contribution to core damage frequency except fires, seismic events, and external flooding. A limited scope analysis of the external flooding risk indicated that it is not a major risk contributor. Detailed analyses of the fire and seismic risks resulted in total (mean) core damage frequencies of 1.96E-5 and 4.60E-05 per reactor year, respectively. Detailed uncertainty analyses were performed for both fire and seismic risks. These results show that the core damage frequency profile for these events is comparable to that found for existing commercial power plants if proposed fixes are completed as part of the restart program. 108 refs., 85 figs., 80 tabs.

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Contextual risk, maternal parenting and adolescent externalizing behaviour problems: the role of emotion regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Walton, A; Flouri, Eirini

2010-03-01

The objective of this study was to test if emotion regulation mediates the association between mothers' parenting and adolescents' externalizing behaviour problems (conduct problems and hyperactivity). The parenting dimensions were warmth, psychological control and behavioural control (measured with knowledge, monitoring and discipline). Adjustment was made for contextual risk (measured with the number of proximal adverse life events experienced), gender, age and English as an additional language. Data were from a UK community sample of adolescents aged 11-18 from a comprehensive school in a disadvantaged area. At the multivariate level, none of the parenting variables predicted hyperactivity, which was associated only with difficulties in emotion regulation, contextual risk and English as a first language. The parenting variables predicting conduct problems at the multivariate level were warmth and knowledge. Knowledge did not predict emotion regulation. However, warmth predicted emotion regulation, which was negatively associated with conduct problems. Contextual risk was a significant predictor of both difficulties in emotion regulation and externalizing behaviour problems. Its effect on conduct problems was independent of parenting and was not via its association with difficulties in emotion regulation. The findings add to the evidence for the importance of maternal warmth and contextual risk for both regulated emotion and regulated behaviour. The small maternal control effects on both emotion regulation and externalizing behaviour could suggest the importance of paternal control for adolescent outcomes.

Life cycle assessment of waste management systems: Assessing technical externalities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brogaard, Line Kai-Sørensen

The life cycle assessment (LCA) of a waste management system relies on many internal characteristics such as pollution control systems and recovery efficiencies. It also relies on technical externalities supporting the waste management system in terms of capital goods and energy and material...... for the primary and secondary production of materials, 366 datasets were gathered. The materials in focus were: paper, newsprint, cardboard, corrugated board, glass, aluminium, steel and plastics (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE, PET, PS, PVC). Only one quarter of these data concerned secondary production, thus underlining...

External costs related to power production technologies. ExternE national implementation for Denmark

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schleisner, L; Sieverts Nielsen, P [eds.

1997-12-01

The objective of the ExternE National Implementation project has been to establish a comprehensive and comparable set of data on externalities of power generation for all EU member states and Norway. The tasks include the application of the ExternE methodology to the most important fuel cycles for each country as well as to update the already existing results, to aggregate these site- and technology-specific results to more general figures. The current report covers the detailed information concerning the ExternE methodology. Importance is attached to the computer system used in the project and the assessment of air pollution effects on health, materials and ecological effects. Also the assessment of global warming damages are described. Finally the report covers the detailed information concerning the national implementation for Denmark for an offshore wind farm and a wind farm on land, a decentralised CHP plant based on natural gas and a decentralised CHP plant base on biogas. (au) EU-JOULE 3. 79 tabs., 11 ills., 201 refs.

External costs related to power production technologies. ExternE national implementation for Denmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schleisner, L.; Sieverts Nielsen, P.

1997-12-01

The objective of the ExternE National Implementation project has been to establish a comprehensive and comparable set of data on externalities of power generation for all EU member states and Norway. The tasks include the application of the ExternE methodology to the most important fuel cycles for each country as well as to update the already existing results, to aggregate these site- and technology-specific results to more general figures. The current report covers the detailed information concerning the ExternE methodology. Importance is attached to the computer system used in the project and the assessment of air pollution effects on health, materials and ecological effects. Also the assessment of global warming damages are described. Finally the report covers the detailed information concerning the national implementation for Denmark for an offshore wind farm and a wind farm on land, a decentralised CHP plant based on natural gas and a decentralised CHP plant base on biogas. (au) EU-JOULE 3. 79 tabs., 11 ills., 201 refs

Environmental externalities related to power production on biogas and natural gas based on the EU ExternE methodology

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Per Sieverts; Ibsen, Liselotte Schleisner

1998-01-01

This paper assesses the environmental impacts and external costs from selected electricity generation systems in Denmark. The assessment is carried out as part of the ExternE National Implementation, which is the second phase of the ExternE project and involves case studies from all Western...... European countries. The project use a “bottom-up” methodology to evaluate the external costs associated with a wide range of different fuel cycles. The project has identified priority impacts, where most are impacts from air emissions. Externalities due to atmospheric emissions are calculated through...

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

The Estimation of Externalities Resulting from the Electricity Generation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeong, Jong Tae; Ha, Jae Joo

2003-03-15

The methodology, program, and the representative results for the estimation of externalities was reviewed. The review of them are based on the ExternE Project which is a representative research project for the estimation of externalities resulting from the various energy generating systems. The results for the study will be used as basic data for the comparative study on the integrated risk estimation for various energy generating systems including nuclear power plants. Also, these results will be used as comparative data in the establishment of a integrated comparative risk assessment tool and in the comparative study of the impacts resulting from the various electricity generating systems. These studies make it possible to compare the environmental impacts of nuclear power generation and other electricity generation systems. Therefore, this will of use in the enhancement of public acceptance of nuclear power generation.

The Estimation of Externalities Resulting from the Electricity Generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Jong Tae; Ha, Jae Joo

2003-03-01

The methodology, program, and the representative results for the estimation of externalities was reviewed. The review of them are based on the ExternE Project which is a representative research project for the estimation of externalities resulting from the various energy generating systems. The results for the study will be used as basic data for the comparative study on the integrated risk estimation for various energy generating systems including nuclear power plants. Also, these results will be used as comparative data in the establishment of a integrated comparative risk assessment tool and in the comparative study of the impacts resulting from the various electricity generating systems. These studies make it possible to compare the environmental impacts of nuclear power generation and other electricity generation systems. Therefore, this will of use in the enhancement of public acceptance of nuclear power generation

Procedures for the external event core damage frequency analyses for NUREG-1150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, M.P.; Lambright, J.A.

1990-11-01

This report presents methods which can be used to perform the assessment of risk due to external events at nuclear power plants. These methods were used to perform the external events risk assessments for the Surry and Peach Bottom nuclear power plants as part of the NRC-sponsored NUREG-1150 risk assessments. These methods apply to the full range of hazards such as earthquakes, fires, floods, etc. which are collectively known as external events. The methods described in this report have been developed under NRC sponsorship and represent, in many cases, both advancements and simplifications over techniques that have been used in past years. They also include the most up-to-date data bases on equipment seismic fragilities, fire occurrence frequencies and fire damageability thresholds. The methods described here are based on making full utilization of the power plant systems logic models developed in the internal events analyses. By making full use of the internal events models one obtains an external event analysis that is consistent both in nomenclature and in level of detail with the internal events analyses, and in addition, automatically includes all the appropriate random and tests/maintenance unavailabilities as appropriate. 50 refs., 9 figs., 11 tabs

External cephalic version facilitation for breech presentation at term.

Science.gov (United States)

Hofmeyr, G J

2001-01-01

Tocolytic drugs to relax the uterus as well as other methods have been also used in an attempt to facilitate external cephalic version at term. The objective of this review is to assess the effects of routine tocolysis, fetal acoustic stimulation, epidural or spinal analgesia and transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term on successful version and measures of pregnancy outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group Trials Register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Date of last search: April 2001. Randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing routine versus selective tocolysis; fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions versus dummy or no stimulation; epidural or spinal analgesia versus no regional analgesia; or transabdominal amnioinfusion versus no amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by the reviewer. In seven trials, routine tocolysis was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version (relative risk 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.64 to 0.87). There were no significant differences between non-cephalic presentations at birth. Caesarean sections were reduced (relative risk 0.85, confidence interval 0.72-0.99). Fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal spine positions was associated with fewer failures of external cephalic version at term (relative risk 0.17, 95% confidence interval 0.05 to 0.60). With epidural or spinal analgesia, external cephalic version failure, non-cephalic births and caesarean sections were reduced in one trial but not the other. The overall differences were not statistically significant. No randomised trials of transabdominal amnioinfusion for external cephalic version at term were located. Routine tocolysis appears to reduce the failure rate of external cephalic version at term. Although promising, there is not enough evidence to evaluate the use of fetal acoustic stimulation in midline fetal

External Criticality Risk of Immobilized Plutonium Waste Form in a Geologic Repository

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McClure, J.

2001-01-01

This purpose of this technical report is to provide a comprehensive summary of the waste package (WP) external criticality-related risk of the Plutonium Disposition ceramic waste form, which is being developed and evaluated by the Office of Fissile Materials Disposition of the United States Department of Energy (DOE). Potential accumulation of the fissile materials, 239 Pu and 235 U, in rock formations having a favorable chemical environment for such actions, requires analysis because autocatalytic configurations, while unlikely to form, never-the-less have consequences which are undesirable and require evaluation. Secondly, the WP design has evolved necessitating a re-evaluation of the internal WP degradation scenarios that contribute to the external source terms. The scope of this study includes a summary of the revised WP degradation calculations, a summary of the accumulation mechanisms in fractures and lithophysae in the tuff beneath the WP footprint, and a summary of the criticality risk calculations from any accumulated fissile material. Accumulations of fissile material external to the WP sufficient to pose a potential criticality risk require a deposition mechanism operating over sufficient time to reach required levels. The transporting solution concentrations themselves are well below critical levels (CRWMS 2001e). The ceramic waste form consists of Pu immobilized in ceramic disks, which would be embedded in High-Level Waste (HLW) glass in the standard HLW glass disposal canister. The ceramic disks would occupy approximately 12% of the HLW canister volume, while most of the remaining 88% of the volume would be occupied by HLW glass

Incidence and risk factors for pin tract infection in external fixation of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Incidence and risk factors for pin tract infection in external fixation of fractures ... for pin tract infection, there were 93 pins scored grade 1, 32 pins grade 2, 15 ... The incidence increased from 20.5% in closed fractures to 75.9% in open fractures.

External quality assessments for microbiologic diagnosis of diphtheria in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Both, Leonard; Neal, Shona; De Zoysa, Aruni; Mann, Ginder; Czumbel, Ida; Efstratiou, Androulla

2014-12-01

The European Diphtheria Surveillance Network (EDSN) ensures the reliable epidemiological and microbiologic assessment of disease prevalence in the European Union. Here, we describe a survey of current diagnostic techniques for diphtheria surveillance conducted across the European Union and report the results from three external quality assessment (EQA) schemes performed between 2010 and 2014. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

An Exploratory Study: Assessment of Modeled Dioxin Exposure in Ceramic Art Studios (External Review Draft)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA has released an external review draft entitled, An Exploratory Study: Assessment of Modeled Dioxin Exposure in Ceramic Art Studios(External Review Draft). The public comment period and the external peer-review workshop are separate processes that provide opportunities ...

A risk-informed framework for establishing a beyond design basis safety basis for external hazards

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amico, P. [Hughes Associates, Inc, Baltimore, MD (United States); Anoba, R. [Hughes Associates, Inc, Raleigh, NC (United States); Najafi, B. [Hughes Associates, Inc., Los Gatos, CA (United States)

2014-07-01

The events at Fukushima Daiichi taught us that meeting a deterministic design basis requirement for external hazards does not assure that the risk is low. As observed at the plant, the two primary reasons for this are failure cliffs above the design basis event and that combined hazard effects are not considered in design. Because the possible combinations of design basis exceedences and external hazard combinations are very large and complex, an approach focusing only on the most important ones is needed. For this reason, a risk informed approach is the most effective approach, which is discussed in this paper. (author)

Prevalence, Outcome, and Women's Experiences of External Cephalic Version in a Low-Risk Population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijnders, Marlies; Offerhaus, Pien; van Dommelen, Paula; Wiegers, Therese; Buitendijk, Simone

2010-01-01

Background: Until recently, external cephalic version to prevent breech presentation at birth was not widely accepted. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, outcomes, and women's experiences of external cephalic version to improve the implementation of the procedure in the

Prevalence, outcome, and women's experiences of external cephalic version in a low-risk population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijnders, M.; Offerhaus, P.; Dommelen, P. van; Wiegers, T.; Buitendijk, S.

2010-01-01

Background: Until recently, external cephalic version to prevent breech presentation at birth was not widely accepted. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, outcomes, and women's experiences of external cephalic version to improve the implementation of the procedure in the

The EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Results and insights

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.; Roglans, J.

1993-01-01

This paper summarizes the results from the recently completed EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1. 6 10 -6 yr -1 , even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The probability of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquake) is 3.6 10 -6 yr -1 . overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double, vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability

Assessment of occupational exposure due to external sources of radiation. Safety guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

Occupational exposure to ionizing radiation can occur in a range of industries, medical institutions, educational and research establishments and nuclear fuel cycle facilities. Adequate radiation protection of workers is essential for the safe and acceptable use of radiation, radioactive materials and nuclear energy. The three Safety Guides on occupational radiation protection are jointly sponsored by the IAEA and the International Labour Office. The Agency gratefully acknowledges the contribution of the European Commission to the development of the present Safety Guide. The present Safety Guide addresses the assessment of exposure due to external sources of radiation in the workplace. Such exposure can result from a number of sources within a workplace, and the monitoring of workers and the workplace in such situations is an integral part of any occupational radiation protection programme. The assessment of exposure due to external radiation sources depends critically upon knowledge of the radiation type and energy and the conditions of exposure. The present Safety Guide reflects the major changes over the past decade in international practice in external dose assessment

Assessment of occupational exposure due to external sources of radiation. Safety guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

Occupational exposure to ionizing radiation can occur in a range of industries, medical institutions, educational and research establishments and nuclear fuel cycle facilities. Adequate radiation protection of workers is essential for the safe and acceptable use of radiation, radioactive materials and nuclear energy. The three Safety Guides on occupational radiation protection are jointly sponsored by the IAEA and the International Labour Office. The Agency gratefully acknowledges the contribution of the European Commission to the development of the present Safety Guide. The present Safety Guide addresses the assessment of exposure due to external sources of radiation in the workplace. Such exposure can result from a number of sources within a workplace, and the monitoring of workers and the workplace in such situations is an integral part of any occupational radiation protection programme. The assessment of exposure due to external radiation sources depends critically upon knowledge of the radiation type and energy and the conditions of exposure. The present Safety Guide reflects the major changes over the past decade in international practice in external dose assessment

Assessment of occupational exposure due to external sources of radiation. Safety guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-01-01

Occupational exposure to ionizing radiation can occur in a range of industries, medical institutions, educational and research establishments and nuclear fuel cycle facilities. Adequate radiation protection of workers is essential for the safe and acceptable use of radiation, radioactive materials and nuclear energy. The three Safety Guides on occupational radiation protection are jointly sponsored by the IAEA and the International Labour Office. The Agency gratefully acknowledges the contribution of the European Commission to the development of the present Safety Guide. The present Safety Guide addresses the assessment of exposure due to external sources of radiation in the workplace. Such exposure can result from a number of sources within a workplace, and the monitoring of workers and the workplace in such situations is an integral part of any occupational radiation protection programme. The assessment of exposure due to external radiation sources depends critically upon knowledge of the radiation type and energy and the conditions of exposure. The present Safety Guide reflects the major changes over the past decade in international practice in external dose assessment

IPEEE review of external events of the Asco I nuclear plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aleman, A.; Canadell, F.; Beltran, F.; Pifarre, D.; Hernandez, H.; Gasca, C.

2012-01-01

During the risk analysis update of Asco NPP (2010), it has been carried out a review of the vulnerabilities against severe accidents caused by external events (individual Plant Examination of external Events, IPEEE). The assessment has includent analysis of accidents in industrial and military facilities nearby and transportation accidents (i.e., rail, road and aircraft impact) release of hazardous materials on site, external flooding, turbine missiles and strong winds. (Author)

Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

Science.gov (United States)

Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

2010-11-01

Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Prevalence, outcome, and women's experiences of external cephalic version in a low-risk population.

Science.gov (United States)

Rijnders, Marlies; Offerhaus, Pien; van Dommelen, Paula; Wiegers, Therese; Buitendijk, Simone

2010-06-01

Until recently, external cephalic version to prevent breech presentation at birth was not widely accepted. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, outcomes, and women's experiences of external cephalic version to improve the implementation of the procedure in the Netherlands. A prospective cohort study was conducted of 167 women under the care of a midwife with confirmed breech presentation at a gestational age of 33 completed weeks or more. Between June 2007 and January 2008, 167 women with a confirmed breech presentation were offered an external cephalic version. Of this group, 123 women (73.7%, 95% CI: 65.5-80.5) subsequently received the version. These women had about a ninefold increased probability of a cephalic presentation at birth compared with women who did not undergo a version (relative risk [RR]: 8.8, 95% CI: 2.2-34.8). The chance of a vaginal birth after an external cephalic version was almost threefold (RR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.5-5.0). The success rate was 39 percent, although considerable differences existed associated with region and parity. Ninety-four percent of women with a successful version rated it as a good experience compared with 71 percent of women who had a failed version (p = 0.015). Significant pain during the version was experienced by 34 percent of women, of whom 18 percent also experienced fear during the version, compared with no women who reported little or no pain (p = 0.006). Women who reported significant pain or fear during the version experienced the version more negatively (OR: 6.0, 95% CI: 3.3-12.2 and OR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.1-6.0, respectively). One in every four women with a breech presentation in independent midwifery care did not receive an external cephalic version. Of the women who received a version one third experienced significant pain during the procedure. Considerable regional variation in success rate existed.

State review United States of America. Risks and risk assessment according to the law of the United States of America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feldmann, F.J.

1980-01-01

In the chapter 'Risk Assessment in Atomic Energy Law of the United States' of this report you find among other things the Atomic Energy Act, the approval conditions, General Design Criteria for Nuclear Power Plants, the defense-in-depth concept, probabilistic safety studies, probabilistic probability assessments in the case of external influences onto nuclear power plants, quantitative analyses of the consequences of conceivable accidents, reduction of radiation exposure, the National Environmental Policy Act, the environmental compatibility declaration, the so-called residual risk under the environmental aspect, the classification of the accidents into 9 types, new developments concerning accident analysis, effects of the nuclear fuel cycle on environment, indicial decisions. The chapter about 'Risk Assessment in Civil Law, Criminal Law and Law on Protection of the Environment', deals among other things with the Law on nuisance, the Clean Air Act, the Federal Environmental Pesticide Control Act. In 'Problems of the Cost-Efficiency-Analysis' the significance and purpose of this analysis, the availability of data and information, the monetary quantification of risks and costs, alternatives and the danger of misuse are illustrated. (HSCH) [de

An assessment of the low seismic risk of the inherently safe sodium advanced fast reactor (SAFR)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rutherford, P.D.

1988-01-01

A recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the sodium advanced fast reactor (SAFR) demonstrated the inherently low risk of advanced liquid-metal, pool-type fast reactors with inherent safety systems. As a result, it was recognized that external events, especially seismic events, may not only be a major contributor to risk (as shown in several LWR PRAs) but also may completely dominate the risk. Accordingly, a seismic risk assessment has been completed for SAFR, which resulted in a core damage frequency of 2 x 10 -7 /year and a large release frequency of 4 x 10 -9 /year. This paper reports that public health risk in terms of early fatality risk and latent fatality risk were also several orders of magnitude below the NRC safety goals and below recent LWR risks reported in NUREB/CR1150

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

Sexual Risk Behaviors in the Adolescent Offspring of Parents with Bipolar Disorder: Prospective Associations with Parents' Personality and Externalizing Behavior in Childhood.

Science.gov (United States)

Nijjar, Rami; Ellenbogen, Mark A; Hodgins, Sheilagh

2016-10-01

We recently reported that adolescent and young adult offspring of parents with bipolar disorder (OBD), relative to control offspring, were more likely to engage in sexual risk behaviors (SRBs). The present prospective study aimed to determine the contribution of parents' personality and offspring behaviour problems in middle childhood to offspring SRBs 10 years later. We hypothesized that offspring externalizing problems in childhood would mediate the relationship between parents' personality traits of neuroticism and agreeableness and adolescent SRBs. Furthermore, we expected these associations to be more robust among the OBD than controls. At baseline, 102 offspring (52 OBD and 50 controls) aged between 4 and 14 years were assessed along with their parents, who completed a self-report personality measure and child behavior rating. Behaviour ratings were also obtained from the children's teachers. Ten years later the offspring completed an interview assessing SRBs. Mediation analyses using bootstrapping revealed that, after controlling for age and presence of an affective disorder, externalizing behaviors served as a pathway through which high parental neuroticism, low parental agreeableness, and low parental extraversion were related to SRBs in offspring. Moderated mediation analyses revealed that the relationship between parental neuroticism and childhood externalizing problems was stronger for OBD than controls. These findings add to our previous results showing parents' personality contributes to intergenerational risk transfer through behavioral problems in middle childhood. These results carry implications for optimal timing of preventative interventions in the OBD.

Current status and issues of external event PSA for extreme natural hazards after Fukushima accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, In-Kil; Hahm, Daegi; Kim, Min Kyu

2014-01-01

Extreme external events is emerged as significant risk contributor to the nuclear power plants after Fukushima Daiichi accident due to the catastrophic earthquake followed by great tsunami greater than a design basis. This accident shows that the extreme external events have the potential to simultaneously affect redundant and diverse safety systems and thereby induce common cause failure or common cause initiators. The probabilistic risk assessment methodology has been used for the risk assessment and safety improvement against the extreme natural hazards. The earthquake and tsunami hazard is an important issue for the nuclear industry in Korea. In this paper, the role and application of probabilistic safety assessment for the post Fukushima action will be introduced. For the evaluation of the extreme natural hazard, probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis is being performed for the safety enhancement. The research activity on the external event PSA and its interim results will be introduced with the issues to be solved in the future for the reliability enhancement of the risk analysis results. (authors)

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Outline of manual on measurement and assessment of doses from external radiation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoshizawa, Michio [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Tsujimura, Norio

2001-03-01

The external exposure part in the manual for measurement and assessment of doses from external radiation is described since the part is changed in accordance with the revision of the Law Concerning Prevention from Radiation Hazard due to Radioisotopes, Etc. The manual contains general remarks, control of external exposure and its methods, person monitoring, site monitoring, correction of instruments and storage of records. The 2nd and 3rd chapters are described in details, because which are considerably changed together with appendices concerning the operational quantity for measuring external dose, conversion coefficients, and correlations of 3 mm, 1 cm and 70 {mu}m dose equivalents. Making manuals unique to the individual offices, etc. is recommended in compliance with the above manual.(K.H.)

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Recent case studies and advancements in probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1985-01-01

During the period from 1977 to 1984, Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc., had the lead in preparing several full scope probabilistic risk assessments for electric utilities. Five of those studies are discussed from the point of view of advancements and lessons learned. The objective and trend of these studies is toward utilization of the risk models by the plant owners as risk management tools. Advancements that have been made are in presentation ad documentation of the PRAs, generation of more understandable plant level information, and improvements in methodology to facilitate technology transfer. Specific areas of advancement are in the treatment of such issues as dependent failures, human interaction, and the uncertainty in the source term. Lessons learned cover a wide spectrum and include the importance of plant specific models for meaningful risk management, the role of external events in risk, the sensitivity of contributors to choice of risk index, and the very important finding that the public risk is extremely small. The future direction of PRA is to establish less dependence on experts for in-plant application. Computerizing the PRAs such that they can be accessed on line and interactively is the key

Risk-Informed External Hazards Analysis for Seismic and Flooding Phenomena for a Generic PWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steve [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ma, Zhegang [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Spears, Bob [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Szilard, Ronaldo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kosbab, Ben [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2017-07-26

This report describes the activities performed during the FY2017 for the US-DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (LWRS-RISMC), Industry Application #2. The scope of Industry Application #2 is to deliver a risk-informed external hazards safety analysis for a representative nuclear power plant. Following the advancements occurred during the previous FYs (toolkits identification, models development), FY2017 focused on: increasing the level of realism of the analysis; improving the tools and the coupling methodologies. In particular the following objectives were achieved: calculation of buildings pounding and their effects on components seismic fragility; development of a SAPHIRE code PRA models for 3-loops Westinghouse PWR; set-up of a methodology for performing static-dynamic PRA coupling between SAPHIRE and EMRALD codes; coupling RELAP5-3D/RAVEN for performing Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty analysis and automatic limit surface search; and execute sample calculations for demonstrating the capabilities of the toolkit in performing a risk-informed external hazards safety analyses.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

External radiotherapy. Particle accelerator - Radiation protection: medical sheet ED 4246

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-06-01

After having indicated the required authorizations for the use of external radiotherapy installations, this document presents the various aspects and measures related to radiation protection of workers when performing such treatments. It presents the concerned personnel, describes the operational process, indicates the associated hazards and the risk related to ionizing radiation, and describes how the risk is to be assessed and how exposure levels are to be determined (elements of risk assessment, delimitation of controlled and monitored areas, personnel classification, and choice of the dose monitoring method). It describes the various components of a risk management strategy (risk reduction, technical measures regarding the installation and the personnel, training and information, prevention and medical monitoring). It briefly presents how risk management is to be assessed, and mentions other related risks

Development and external validation of a new PTA assessment scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jacobs, B.; van Ekert, J.; Vernooy, L.P.; Dieperink, P.; Andriessen, T.M.J.C.; Hendriks, M.P.; van Vugt, A.B.; Emons, M.A.; Borm, G.F.; Vos, P.E.

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND: Post-traumatic amnesia (PTA) is a key symptom of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Accurate assessment of PTA is imperative in guiding clinical decision making. Our aim was to develop and externally validate a short, examiner independent and practical PTA scale, by selecting the most

Risk variables of external apical root resorption during orthodontic treatment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Carolina Feio Barroso

2012-04-01

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: External apical root resorption (EARR is an adverse outcome of the orthodontic treatment. So far, no single or associated factor has been identified as responsible for EARR due to tooth movement. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the association of risk variables (age, gender, extraction for orthodontic treatment and Angle classification with EARR and orthodontic treatment. METHOD: The sample (n=72 was divided into two groups according to presence (n=32 or absence (n=40 of EARR in maxillary central and lateral incisors after orthodontic treatment. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant differences in EARR according to age, gender, extraction or type of malocclusion (p>0.05. CONCLUSION: The risk variables examined were not associated with EARR in the study population.

Application of declarative modeling approaches for external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anoba, R.C.

2005-01-01

Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) are increasingly being used as a tool for supporting the acceptability of design, procurement, construction, operation, and maintenance activities at Nuclear Power Plants. Since the issuance of Generic Letter 88-20 and subsequent IPE/IPEEE assessments, the NRC has issued several Regulatory Guides such as RG 1.174 to describe the use of PSA in risk-informed regulation activities. Most PSA have the capability to address internal events including internal floods. As the more demands are being placed for using the PSA to support risk-informed applications, there has been a growing need to integrate other eternal events (Seismic, Fire, etc.) into the logic models. Most external events involve spatial dependencies and usually impact the logic models at the component level. Therefore, manual insertion of external events impacts into a complex integrated fault tree model may be too cumbersome for routine uses of the PSA. Within the past year, a declarative modeling approach has been developed to automate the injection of external events into the PSA. The intent of this paper is to introduce the concept of declarative modeling in the context of external event applications. A declarative modeling approach involves the definition of rules for injection of external event impacts into the fault tree logic. A software tool such as the EPRI's XInit program can be used to interpret the pre-defined rules and automatically inject external event elements into the PSA. The injection process can easily be repeated, as required, to address plant changes, sensitivity issues, changes in boundary conditions, etc. External event elements may include fire initiating events, seismic initiating events, seismic fragilities, fire-induced hot short events, special human failure events, etc. This approach has been applied at a number of US nuclear power plants including a nuclear power plant in Romania. (authors)

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Internal versus External Assessment in Vocational Qualifications: A Commentary on the Government's Reforms in England

Science.gov (United States)

Vitello, Sylvia; Williamson, Joanna

2017-01-01

The distinction between external assessment and internal assessment underpins a major reform to vocational qualifications underway in England. To be approved by the Department for Education, vocational qualifications must now include a minimum proportion of external assessment, regardless of subject. This paper discusses the nature and…

Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha; Parisi, Carlo; Prescott, Steven R.; Gupta, Abhinav

2016-01-01

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, Justin L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bolisetti, Chandu [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Veeraraghavan, Swetha [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven R. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Gupta, Abhinav [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-09-01

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporates deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.

Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Corrosion Risk of Reinforced Concrete Structure Arising from Internal and External Chloride

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. J. Kim

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The corrosion risk of internal chloride and external chloride from three different exposure conditions was evaluated. The initiation of corrosion was detected by monitoring the galvanic current between cathode metal and embedded steel. The chloride threshold was determined by measuring the corrosion rate of steel by the polarization technique for internal chloride and the chloride profiling test for external chloride. As the result, the initiation of corrosion was accelerated with a cyclic wet/dry condition, compared to the totally wet condition. In addition, it was found that an increase of the drying ratio in the exposure condition resulted in an increase of corrosion rate after initiation. The threshold level of external chloride ranged from 0.2 to 0.3% weight by cement and internal chloride shows higher range, equated to 1.59–3.10%. Based on these data, the chloride penetration with exposure condition was predicted to determine the service life of reinforced concrete structure.

Probabilistic integrated risk assessment of human exposure risk to environmental bisphenol A pollution sources.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Keng-Yen; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Chio, Chia-Pin; Liao, Chung-Min

2016-10-01

Environmental bisphenol A (BPA) exposure has been linked to a variety of adverse health effects such as developmental and reproductive issues. However, establishing a clear association between BPA and the likelihood of human health is complex yet fundamentally uncertain. The purpose of this study was to assess the potential exposure risks from environmental BPA among Chinese population based on five human health outcomes, namely immune response, uterotrophic assay, cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes, and behavior change. We addressed these health concerns by using a stochastic integrated risk assessment approach. The BPA dose-dependent likelihood of effects was reconstructed by a series of Hill models based on animal models or epidemiological data. We developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that allows estimation of urinary BPA concentration from external exposures. Here we showed that the daily average exposure concentrations of BPA and urinary BPA estimates were consistent with the published data. We found that BPA exposures were less likely to pose significant risks for infants (0-1 year) and adults (male and female >20 years) with human long-term BPA susceptibility in relation to multiple exposure pathways, and for informing the public of the negligible magnitude of environmental BPA pollution impacts on human health.

Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgherr, Peter; Hirschberg, Stefan

2014-01-01

Comparative assessment of accident risks in the energy sector is a key aspect in a comprehensive evaluation of sustainability and energy security concerns. Safety performance of energy systems can have important implications on the environmental, economic and social dimensions of sustainability as well as availability, acceptability and accessibility aspects of energy security. Therefore, this study provides a broad comparison of energy technologies based on the objective expression of accident risks for complete energy chains. For fossil chains and hydropower the extensive historical experience available in PSI's Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) is used, whereas for nuclear a simplified probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is applied, and evaluations of new renewables are based on a combination of available data, modeling, and expert judgment. Generally, OECD and EU 27 countries perform better than non-OECD. Fatality rates are lowest for Western hydropower and nuclear as well as for new renewables. In contrast, maximum consequences can be by far highest for nuclear and hydro, intermediate for fossil, and very small for new renewables, which are less prone to severe accidents. Centralized, low-carbon technology options could generally contribute to achieve large reductions in CO 2 -emissions; however, the principal challenge for both fossil with Carbon Capture and Storage and nuclear is public acceptance. Although, external costs of severe accidents are significantly smaller than those caused by air pollution, accidents can have disastrous and long-term impacts. Overall, no technology performs best or worst in all respects, thus tradeoffs and priorities are needed to balance the conflicting objectives such as energy security, sustainability and risk aversion to support rationale decision making. - Highlights: • Accident risks are compared across a broad range of energy technologies. • Analysis of historical experience was based on the

Monitoring and assessment of individual doses of occupationally exposed workers due to external radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kitaw, S. T.

2015-05-01

Exposure to external radiation occurs in many occupations. Any exposure to ionizing radiation has the tendency to change the biochemical make-up of the human body which may result in biological health effects of ionizing radiation. This study reviews the monitoring and assessment of external radiation doses in industrial radiography using thermoluminescence and direct reading dosimeters. Poor handling procedures such as inadequate engineering control of equipment, safety culture, management, and inadequate assessment and monitoring of doses are the causes of most of the reported cases of exposure to external radiation in industrial radiography. Occupational exposure data in industrial radiography from UNSCEAR report 2008 was discussed and recommendations were made to regulatory authorities, operating organizations and radiographers. (au)

Prevalence, outcome, and women’s experiences of external cephalic version in a low-risk population.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rijnders, M.; Offerhaus, P.; Dommelen, P. van; Wiegers, T.; Buitendijk, S.

2010-01-01

BACKGROUND: Until recently, external cephalic version to prevent breech presentation at birth was not widely accepted. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, outcomes, and women's experiences of external cephalic version to improve the implementation of the procedure in the

Food or Thought? Assessing Internal and External Factors Affecting Evaluations of Instructor Effectiveness

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, John; Kiggins, Ryan; Kickham, Kenneth

2017-01-01

Within the broader literature concerned with potential bias in student measures of instructor effectiveness, two broad types of bias have been shown to operate in a course: internal and external. Missing is an assessment of the relative influence of each bias type in the classroom. Do internal or external types of bias matter more or less to…

External validation of Vascular Study Group of New England risk predictive model of mortality after elective abdominal aorta aneurysm repair in the Vascular Quality Initiative and comparison against established models.

Science.gov (United States)

Eslami, Mohammad H; Rybin, Denis V; Doros, Gheorghe; Siracuse, Jeffrey J; Farber, Alik

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to externally validate a recently reported Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) risk predictive model of postoperative mortality after elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and to compare its predictive ability across different patients' risk categories and against the established risk predictive models using the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) AAA sample. The VQI AAA database (2010-2015) was queried for patients who underwent elective AAA repair. The VSGNE cases were excluded from the VQI sample. The external validation of a recently published VSGNE AAA risk predictive model, which includes only preoperative variables (age, gender, history of coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular disease, creatinine levels, and aneurysm size) and planned type of repair, was performed using the VQI elective AAA repair sample. The predictive value of the model was assessed via the C-statistic. Hosmer-Lemeshow method was used to assess calibration and goodness of fit. This model was then compared with the Medicare, Vascular Governance Northwest model, and Glasgow Aneurysm Score for predicting mortality in VQI sample. The Vuong test was performed to compare the model fit between the models. Model discrimination was assessed in different risk group VQI quintiles. Data from 4431 cases from the VSGNE sample with the overall mortality rate of 1.4% was used to develop the model. The internally validated VSGNE model showed a very high discriminating ability in predicting mortality (C = 0.822) and good model fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .309) among the VSGNE elective AAA repair sample. External validation on 16,989 VQI cases with an overall 0.9% mortality rate showed very robust predictive ability of mortality (C = 0.802). Vuong tests yielded a significant fit difference favoring the VSGNE over then Medicare model (C = 0.780), Vascular Governance Northwest (0.774), and Glasgow Aneurysm Score (0

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

Advanced Mechanistic 3D Spatial Modeling and Analysis Methods to Accurately Represent Nuclear Facility External Event Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sezen, Halil [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States). Dept. of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic Engineering; Aldemir, Tunc [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States). College of Engineering, Nuclear Engineering Program, Dept. of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering; Denning, R. [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Vaidya, N. [Rizzo Associates, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

2017-12-29

Probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants initially focused on events initiated by internal faults at the plant, rather than external hazards including earthquakes and flooding. Although the importance of external hazards risk analysis is now well recognized, the methods for analyzing low probability external hazards rely heavily on subjective judgment of specialists, often resulting in substantial conservatism. This research developed a framework to integrate the risk of seismic and flooding events using realistic structural models and simulation of response of nuclear structures. The results of four application case studies are presented.

Chemical Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of Natural External Hazards Including Earthquakes. Workshop Proceedings, Prague, Czech Republic, 17-20 June 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

The Fukushima Dai-ichi accident triggered discussions about the significance of external hazards and their treatment in safety analyses. In addition, stress tests results have shown vulnerabilities and potential of cliff-edge effects in plant responses to external hazards and have identified possibilities and priorities for improvements and safety measures' implementation at specific sites and designs. In order to address these issues and provide relevant conclusions and recommendations to CSNI and CNRA, the CSNI Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRISK) directed, in cooperation with the CSNI Working Group on Integrity and Ageing of Components and Structures (WGIAGE), a workshop hosted by UJV Rez. The key objectives of the workshop were to collect information from the OECD member states on methods and approaches being used, and experience gained in probabilistic safety assessment of natural external hazards, as well as to support the fulfillment of the CSNI task on 'PSA of natural external hazards including earthquakes'. These objectives are described more in detail in the introduction in Chapter 1 of this report. The WGRISK activities preceding the workshop and leading to the decision to organize it are described in Chapter 2 of this report. The focus of the workshop was on external events PSA for nuclear power plants, including all modes of operation. The workshop scope was generally limited to external, natural hazards, including those hazards where the distinction between natural and man-made hazards is not sharp. The detailed information about the presentations, discussions, and results of the workshop is presented in Chapter 3 of this report. Some general conclusions were agreed on during the workshop, which are presented in the following paragraphs. - The lessons learned from the Fukushima Dai-ichi reactor accidents and related actions at the national, regional, and global level have emphasized the importance to assess risks associated (authors) with

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

Multicenter external validation of two malignancy risk prediction models in patients undergoing 18F-FDG-PET for solitary pulmonary nodule evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perandini, Simone; Soardi, G.A.; Signorini, M.; Motton, M.; Montemezzi, S.; Larici, A.R.; Del Ciello, A.; Rizzardi, G.; Solazzo, A.; Mancino, L.; Zeraj, F.; Bernhart, M.

2017-01-01

To achieve multicentre external validation of the Herder and Bayesian Inference Malignancy Calculator (BIMC) models. Two hundred and fifty-nine solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs) collected from four major hospitals which underwent 18-FDG-PET characterization were included in this multicentre retrospective study. The Herder model was tested on all available lesions (group A). A subgroup of 180 SPNs (group B) was used to provide unbiased comparison between the Herder and BIMC models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) analysis was performed to assess diagnostic accuracy. Decision analysis was performed by adopting the risk threshold stated in British Thoracic Society (BTS) guidelines. Unbiased comparison performed In Group B showed a ROC AUC for the Herder model of 0.807 (95 % CI 0.742-0.862) and for the BIMC model of 0.822 (95 % CI 0.758-0.875). Both the Herder and the BIMC models were proven to accurately predict the risk of malignancy when tested on a large multicentre external case series. The BIMC model seems advantageous on the basis of a more favourable decision analysis. (orig.)

Multicenter external validation of two malignancy risk prediction models in patients undergoing 18F-FDG-PET for solitary pulmonary nodule evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Perandini, Simone; Soardi, G.A.; Signorini, M.; Motton, M.; Montemezzi, S. [Azienda Ospedaliera Universitaria Integrata di Verona, UOC Radiologia, Ospedale Maggiore di Borgo Trento, Verona (Italy); Larici, A.R.; Del Ciello, A. [Universita Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Scienze Radiologiche, Roma (Italy); Rizzardi, G. [Ospedale Humanitas Gavazzeni, UO Chirurgia Toracica, Bergamo (Italy); Solazzo, A. [Ospedale Humanitas Gavazzeni, UO Radiologia, Bergamo (Italy); Mancino, L.; Zeraj, F. [Ospedale dell' Angelo di Mestre, UO Pneumologia, Venezia (Italy); Bernhart, M. [Ospedale dell' Angelo di Mestre, UO Radiologia, Venezia (Italy)

2017-05-15

To achieve multicentre external validation of the Herder and Bayesian Inference Malignancy Calculator (BIMC) models. Two hundred and fifty-nine solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs) collected from four major hospitals which underwent 18-FDG-PET characterization were included in this multicentre retrospective study. The Herder model was tested on all available lesions (group A). A subgroup of 180 SPNs (group B) was used to provide unbiased comparison between the Herder and BIMC models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) analysis was performed to assess diagnostic accuracy. Decision analysis was performed by adopting the risk threshold stated in British Thoracic Society (BTS) guidelines. Unbiased comparison performed In Group B showed a ROC AUC for the Herder model of 0.807 (95 % CI 0.742-0.862) and for the BIMC model of 0.822 (95 % CI 0.758-0.875). Both the Herder and the BIMC models were proven to accurately predict the risk of malignancy when tested on a large multicentre external case series. The BIMC model seems advantageous on the basis of a more favourable decision analysis. (orig.)

Risks assessment associated with the possibility of intrusion into the low and intermediate level waste disposal facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Didita, L.; Ilie, P.; Pavelescu, M.

1997-01-01

In post-closure performance assessment of low and intermediate level waste disposal facilities it is necessary to assess the individual risks associated with the possibility of intrusion into repository. Intruder induced disruptive events can potentially compromise the integrity of the disposal unit and result in exhumation of the waste and radionuclides migration into environment. In this way, the main routes of exposure are: -inhalation of radioactive materials by the intruder; - external gamma irradiation of the intruder, - long-term pathways resulting from the transfer of radioactive materials to the surface of the site. This paper describes the evaluation of conditional and absolute risks associated with each route of exposure as a function of time. To evaluate the risks, it is necessary to calculate the time-dependent activities of each nuclide considered. This is achieved by employing an analytic solution to the Bateman equation at specified times of evaluation. Conditional risks by inhalation, external exposure and long-term pathways and different modes of intrusion are evaluated on the basis of an annual probability of intrusion of unity. Absolute risks are calculated by scaling the user-supplied probabilities of intrusion at various times of evaluation. The evaluation of absolute risks by long-term exposure pathways involves an interpolation procedure in time. The calculations have been performed for the most important radionuclides present in low and intermediate wastes. (authors)

Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kucukali, Serhat, E-mail: kucukali@cankaya.edu.tr [Civil Engineering Department, Cankaya University, Balgat 06530, Ankara (Turkey)

2011-10-15

In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. - Highlights: > A new methodology is proposed for risk rating of river-type hydropower plant projects. > The relative importance of the risk factors was determined from the expert judgments. > The most concerned risks have been found as environmental issues and site geology. > The proposed methodology was tested on a real case. > The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis.

Effect of an internally versus externally focused acl injury prevention program on injury risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dallinga, J.; Benjaminse, A.; Gokeler, A.; Otten, Egbert; Lemmink, K.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury prevention programs have shown mixed results, which may be in part due to suboptimal training components. OBJECTIVE: Determine effects of a prevention program with external and internal focus of attention on (potential) biomechanical risk factors

Assessment of health-cost externalities of air pollution at the national level using the EVA model system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brandt, J.; Silver, J.D.; Frohn, L.M. (and others)

2011-07-15

Air pollution has significant negative impacts on human health and well-being, which entail substantial economic consequences. We have developed an integrated model system, EVA (External Valuation of Air pollution; Frohn et al., 2005; Andersen et al., 2007; Brandt et al., 2010), to assess health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The EVA system was initially developed to assess externalities from power production, but in this study it is extended to evaluate costs at the national level from all major emission sectors. In this study, we estimate the impacts and total externality costs from the main emission sectors in Denmark, representing the 10 major SNAP codes. Furthermore, we assess the impacts and externality costs of all emissions simultaneously from the whole of Europe as well as from international ship traffic in general, since this sector seems to be very important but is currently unregulated. (Author)

Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2015-12-01

Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

The breech presentation and the vertex presentation following an external version represent risk factors for neonatal hip instability.

Science.gov (United States)

Andersson, J E; Odén, A

2001-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the frequency and type of hip-joint instability and the frequency of hip dislocation requiring treatment in neonates who had been lying in the breech presentation and were delivered vaginally after an external version or by caesarean section, and to compare them with neonates who were naturally in the vertex presentation. Breech presentations without ongoing labour were subjected to an attempted external version and, in cases where this proved unsuccessful or where labour had started, to deliver by caesarean section. None of the breech presentations was vaginally delivered. The anterior-dynamic ultrasound method was used to assess the hip-joint status of the neonates. Out of 6,571 foetuses, 257 were in breech presentation after 36 wk of pregnancy. Sixty-two were vaginally delivered following an external version to vertex presentation and 195 were delivered by caesarean section, 75 of these following unsuccessful attempts to perform a version. Treatment for congenital hip-joint dislocation was performed on 0.2%. Out of the breech presentations, 1.0% of those delivered by caesarean section were treated, while in those with vaginal delivery following an external version the treatment frequency was 3.2%. No case of late diagnosed hip dislocation was recorded. Significant differences in frequency of hip-joint instability and treatment were found between (i) neonates delivered in breech presentation and those delivered with vertex presentation, (ii) infants delivered in vertex presentation, naturally or after successful version, and (iii) those delivered by caesarean section with or without attempted external version and those delivered with vortex presentation. Breech presentation predisposes to increased hip instability. The instability is present prior to delivery and is certainly not a primary result of delivery forces. Both breech and vertex presentations following an external or spontaneous version should be considered as risk

Television viewing and externalizing problems in preschool children: the Generation R Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Verlinden, Marina; Tiemeier, Henning; Hudziak, James J; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Raat, Hein; Guxens, Mònica; Hofman, Albert; Verhulst, Frank C; Jansen, Pauline W

2012-10-01

To determine whether the amount, type, and patterns of television viewing predict the onset or the persistence of externalizing problems in preschool children. Longitudinal study of a prospective population-based cohort in the Netherlands. Parents reported time of television exposure and type of programs watched by children. Externalizing problems were assessed using the Child Behavior Checklist at 18 and 36 months. A population-based sample of 3913 children. Television viewing time, content, and patterns of exposure (at 24 and 36 months) in children with and without preexisting problems to assess the incidence and persistence of externalizing problems. Externalizing problems at 36 months. Program content and time of television exposure assessed at 24 months did not predict the incidence of externalizing problems at 36 months (odds ratio, 2.24; 95% CI, 0.97-5.18). However, the patterns of exposure over time reflecting high levels of television viewing were associated with the incidence of externalizing problems (odds ratio, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.07-3.75) and the persistence of the preexisting externalizing problems (2.59; 1.03-6.55). Our study showed that high television exposure increases the risk of the incidence and the persistence of externalizing problems in preschool children.

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

A Transparent Framework for guiding Radiological and Non-Radiological Contaminated Land Risk Assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Alex; Mathers, Dan

2003-01-01

A framework is presented that may be used as a transparent guidance to both radiological and non-radiological risk assessments. This framework has been developed by BNFL, with external consultation, to provide a systematic approach for identifying key system drivers and to guide associated research packages in light of data deficiencies and sources of model uncertainty. The process presented represents an advance on existing working practices yet combines regulator philosophy to produce a robust, comprehensive, cost-effective and transparent work package. It aims at lending added confidence to risk models thereby adding value to the decision process

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

Assessment of the external costs of the coal fuel cycle and the wind energy cycle in Spain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linares, P.; Montes, J.; Saez, R.M.

1995-09-01

This study is part of the ExternE Project, a joint effort of the European Commission and the US Dept. of Energy to assess the externalities of different fuel cycles, and quantify them in monetary terms, as kWh price adders. For Spain, this assessment has been carried out for a coal plant hypothetically sited in Valdecaballeros, in Southwestern Spain, and for an existing farm in Cabo Villano, in the Northwestern corner. In this first stage, only environmental externalities have been assessed. The first section contains a description of the methodology used in the European project, based mostly on a damage function approach, and its adaptation to Spanish conditions. In the last section, this methodology has been applied to the fuel cycles mentioned. The impacts assessed have been, for the coal fuel cycle, health effects, agricultural and forest production losses, and global warming. For wind energy, the main impacts considered have been noise, loss of visual amenity, accidents and global warning. The results obtained can only be considered as underestimates, as there are still impacts that have not been assessed or quantified, specially for the coal fuel cycle. Thus, further research is needed for a complete assessment

Can the prostate brachytherapy by permanent implants represent an alternative to external radiotherapy for the localised prostate cancers with intermediary risk?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farnault, B.; Duberge, T.; Salem, N.; Boher, J.M.; Gravis, G.; Bladou, F.; Jochen, W.; Resbeut, M.

2009-01-01

Purpose: the prostate brachytherapy stands out as treatment of low risk prostate cancers, but the data concerning its use as exclusive treatment of intermediary risk prostate cancer are rare. We present a retrospective analysis of intermediary risk prostate cancers which treatment was either an external conformal radiotherapy or an exclusive brachytherapy. conclusion: In this mono centric series, the brachytherapy brings excellent results in comparison with external conformal radiotherapy with dose escalation and could be proposed as alternative to patients suffering of intermediary risk prostate cancer. (N.C.)

Integrated Level 3 risk assessment for the LaSalle Unit 2 nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Payne, A.C. Jr.; Brown, T.D.; Miller, L.A.

1991-01-01

An integrated Level 3 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed on the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant using state-of-the-art PRA analysis techniques. The objective of this study was to provide an estimate of the risk to the offsite population during full power operation of the plant and to include a characterization of the uncertainties in the calculated risk values. Uncertainties were included in the accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, and the source term analysis. Only weather uncertainties were included in the consequence analysis. In this paper selected results from the accident frequency, accident progression, source term, consequence, and integrated risk analyses are discussed and the methods used to perform a fully integrated Level 3 PRA are examined. LaSalle County Station is a two-unit nuclear power plant located 55 miles southwest of Chicago, Illinois. Each unit utilizes a Mark 2 containment to house a General Electric 3323 MWt BWR-5 reactor. This PRA, which was performed on Unit 2, included internal as well as external events. External events that were propagated through the risk analysis included earthquakes, fires, and floods. The internal event accident scenarios included transients, transient-induced LOCAs (inadvertently stuck open relief valves), anticipated transients without scram, and loss of coolant accidents

Parent training: equivalent improvement in externalizing behavior for children with and without familial risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Presnall, Ned; Webster-Stratton, Carolyn H; Constantino, John N

2014-08-01

The Incredible Years Series intervention has demonstrated efficacy for decreasing conduct disorder (CD) symptomatology in clinically affected youth in multiple randomized controlled trials. Because children with family psychiatric histories of antisocial behavior are at markedly increased risk for enduring symptoms of antisocial behavior (compared with their counterparts with a negative family history), the authors examined whether intervention effects across studies would prevail in that subgroup or would be relatively restricted to children without genetic risk. A reanalysis was conducted of 5 randomized controlled trials of Incredible Years involving 280 clinically affected children 3 to 8 years of age for whom a family psychiatric history of externalizing behavior in first- and second-degree relatives was ascertained from at least 1 parent. Incredible Years equally benefitted children with CD with and without family psychiatric histories of externalizing behavior. Family psychiatric history of externalizing behavior and parental depressive symptomatology predicted greater severity of CD symptomatology at baseline. The beneficial effects of IY are evident in children with CD, irrespective of whether their conditions are more or less attributable to inherited susceptibility to enduring antisocial syndromes. A next phase of research should address whether earlier implementation of group-based education for parents of young children at increased familial risk for antisocial behavior syndromes-before the development of disruptive patterns of behavior-would result in even more pronounced effects and thereby constitute a cost-effective, targeted, preventive intervention for CD. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

Pesticide Environmental Accounting: A method for assessing the external costs of individual pesticide applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leach, A.W.; Mumford, J.D.

2008-01-01

The Pesticide Environmental Accounting (PEA) tool provides a monetary estimate of environmental and health impacts per hectare-application for any pesticide. The model combines the Environmental Impact Quotient method and a methodology for absolute estimates of external pesticide costs in UK, USA and Germany. For many countries resources are not available for intensive assessments of external pesticide costs. The model converts external costs of a pesticide in the UK, USA and Germany to Mediterranean countries. Economic and policy applications include estimating impacts of pesticide reduction policies or benefits from technologies replacing pesticides, such as sterile insect technique. The system integrates disparate data and approaches into a single logical method. The assumptions in the system provide transparency and consistency but at the cost of some specificity and precision, a reasonable trade-off for a method that provides both comparative estimates of pesticide impacts and area-based assessments of absolute impacts. - A method to estimate the external costs of a pesticide application based on the ecotoxicology, environmental behaviour and application rate of an active ingredient

Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kwag, Shinyoung

component on the critical path is relatively more important in a risk-informed environment. Significance of multi-hazard risk is also illustrated for uncorrelated hazards of earthquakes and high winds which may result in competing design objectives. It is also illustrated that the number of computationally intensive nonlinear simulations needed in performance-based risk assessment for external hazards can be significantly reduced by using the power of Bayesian updating in conjunction with the concept of equivalent limit-state.

Risk factors for cesarean section and instrumental vaginal delivery after successful external cephalic version.

Science.gov (United States)

de Hundt, Marcella; Vlemmix, Floortje; Bais, Joke M J; de Groot, Christianne J; Mol, Ben Willem; Kok, Marjolein

2016-01-01

Aim of this article is to examine if we could identify factors that predict cesarean section and instrumental vaginal delivery in women who had a successful external cephalic version. We used data from a previous randomized trial among 25 hospitals and their referring midwife practices in the Netherlands. With the data of this trial, we performed a cohort study among women attempting vaginal delivery after successful ECV. We evaluated whether maternal age, gestational age, parity, time interval between ECV and delivery, birth weight, neonatal gender, and induction of labor were predictive for a vaginal delivery on one hand or a CS or instrumental vaginal delivery on the other hand. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were calculated with univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Among 301 women who attempted vaginal delivery after a successful external cephalic version attempt, the cesarean section rate was 13% and the instrumental vaginal delivery rate 6%, resulting in a combined instrumental delivery rate of 19%. Nulliparity increased the risk of cesarean section (OR 2.7 (95% CI 1.2-6.1)) and instrumental delivery (OR 4.2 (95% CI 2.1-8.6)). Maternal age, gestational age at delivery, time interval between external cephalic version and delivery, birth weight and neonatal gender did not contribute to the prediction of failed spontaneous vaginal delivery. In our cohort of 301 women with a successful external cephalic version, nulliparity was the only one of seven factors that predicted the risk for cesarean section and instrumental vaginal delivery.

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

A method for scenario-based risk assessment for robust aerospace systems

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Victoria Katherine

involved in completing the modeling and simulation are: Alternative Solution Modeling, Uncertainty Quantification, Risk Assessment, and Risk Mitigation. Focus area three consists of Decision Support. In this area a decision support interface is created that allows for game playing between solution alternatives and risk mitigation. A multi-attribute decision making process is also implemented to aid in decision making. A demonstration problem inspired by Airbus' mid 1980s decision to break into the widebody long-range market was developed to illustrate the use of this method. The results showed that the method is able to capture additional types of risk than previous analysis methods, particularly at the early stages of aircraft design. It was also shown that the method can be used to help create a system that is robust to external environmental factors. The addition of an external environment risk analysis in the early stages of conceptual design can add another dimension to the analysis of feasibility and viability. The ability to take risk into account during the early stages of the design process can allow for the elimination of potentially feasible and viable but too-risky alternatives. The addition of a scenario-based analysis instead of a traditional probabilistic analysis enabled uncertainty to be effectively bound and examined over a variety of potential futures instead of only a single future. There is also potential for a product to be groomed for a specific future that one believes is likely to happen, or for a product to be steered during design as the future unfolds.

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of titanium dioxide nanoparticles via oral exposure, including toxicokinetic considerations.

Science.gov (United States)

Heringa, Minne B; Geraets, Liesbeth; van Eijkeren, Jan C H; Vandebriel, Rob J; de Jong, Wim H; Oomen, Agnes G

2016-12-01

Titanium dioxide white pigment consists of particles of various sizes, from which a fraction is in the nano range (food as additive E 171 as well as in other products, such as food supplements and toothpaste. Here, we assessed whether a human health risk can be expected from oral ingestion of these titanium dioxide nanoparticles (TiO 2 NPs), based on currently available information. Human health risks were assessed using two different approaches: Approach 1, based on intake, i.e. external doses, and Approach 2, based on internal organ concentrations using a kinetic model in order to account for accumulation over time (the preferred approach). Results showed that with Approach 1, a human health risk is not expected for effects in liver and spleen, but a human health risk cannot be excluded for effects on the ovaries. When based on organ concentrations by including the toxicokinetics of TiO 2 NPs (Approach 2), a potential risk for liver, ovaries and testes is found. This difference between the two approaches shows the importance of including toxicokinetic information. The currently estimated risk can be influenced by factors such as absorption, form of TiO 2 , particle fraction, particle size and physico-chemical properties in relation to toxicity, among others. Analysis of actual particle concentrations in human organs, as well as organ concentrations and effects in liver and the reproductive system after chronic exposure to well-characterized TiO 2 (NPs) in animals are recommended to refine this assessment.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Severe accident risks: An assessment for five US nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

This report summarizes an assessment of the risks from severe accidents in five commercial nuclear power plants in the United State. These risks are measured in a number of ways, including: the estimated frequencies of core damage accidents from internally initiated accidents and externally initiated accidents for two of the plants; the performance of containment structures under severe accident loadings; the potential magnitude of radionuclide releases and offsite consequences of such accidents; and the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences). Supporting this summary report are a large number of reports written under contract to NRC that provide the detailed discussion of the methods used and results obtained in these risk studies. This report, Volume 3, contains two appendices. Appendix D summarizes comments received, and staff responses, on the first (February 1987) draft of NUREG-1150. Appendix E provides a similar summary of comments and responses, but for the second (June 1989) version of the report

Short-term Androgen-Deprivation Therapy Improves Prostate Cancer-Specific Mortality in Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients Undergoing Dose-Escalated External Beam Radiation Therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zumsteg, Zachary S.; Spratt, Daniel E.; Pei, Xin; Yamada, Yoshiya; Kalikstein, Abraham; Kuk, Deborah; Zhang, Zhigang; Zelefsky, Michael J.

2013-01-01

Purpose: We investigated the benefit of short-term androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) in patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer (PC) receiving dose-escalated external beam radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: The present retrospective study comprised 710 intermediate-risk PC patients receiving external beam radiation therapy with doses of ≥81 Gy at a single institution from 1992 to 2005, including 357 patients receiving neoadjuvant and concurrent ADT. Prostate-specific antigen recurrence-free survival (PSA-RFS) and distant metastasis (DM) were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazards models. PC-specific mortality (PCSM) was assessed using competing-risks analysis. Results: The median follow-up was 7.9 years. Despite being more likely to have higher PSA levels, Gleason score 4 + 3 = 7, multiple National Comprehensive Cancer Network intermediate-risk factors, and older age (P≤.001 for all comparisons), patients receiving ADT had improved PSA-RFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.598; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.435-0.841; P=.003), DM (HR, 0.424; 95% CI, 0.219-0.819; P=.011), and PCSM (HR, 0.380; 95% CI, 0.157-0.921; P=.032) on univariate analysis. Using multivariate analysis, ADT was an even stronger predictor of improved PSA-RFS (adjusted HR [AHR], 0.516; 95% CI, 0.360-0.739; P<.001), DM (AHR, 0.347; 95% CI, 0.176-0.685; P=.002), and PCSM (AHR, 0.297; 95% CI, 0.128-0.685; P=.004). Gleason score 4 + 3 = 7 and ≥50% positive biopsy cores were other independent predictors of PCSM. Conclusions: Short-term ADT improves PSA-RFS, DM, and PCSM in patients with intermediate-risk PC undergoing dose-escalated external beam radiation therapy

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

Science.gov (United States)

Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

External validation of the NOBLADS score, a risk scoring system for severe acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomonori Aoki

Full Text Available We aimed to evaluate the generalizability of NOBLADS, a severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB prediction model which we had previously derived when working at a different institution, using an external validation cohort. NOBLADS comprises the following factors: non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, no diarrhea, no abdominal tenderness, blood pressure ≤ 100 mmHg, antiplatelet drug use, albumin < 3.0 g/dL, disease score ≥ 2, and syncope.We retrospectively analyzed 511 patients emergently hospitalized for acute LGIB at the University of Tokyo Hospital, from January 2009 to August 2016. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs-AUCs for severe bleeding (continuous and/or recurrent bleeding were compared between the original derivation cohort and the external validation cohort.Severe LGIB occurred in 44% of patients. Several clinical factors were significantly different between the external and derivation cohorts (p < 0.05, including background, laboratory data, NOBLADS scores, and diagnosis. The NOBLADS score predicted the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.74 in the external validation cohort and one of 0.77 in the derivation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the score predicted the risk for blood transfusion need (AUC, 0.71, but was not adequate for predicting intervention need (AUC, 0.54. The in-hospital mortality rate was higher in patients with a score ≥ 5 than in those with a score < 5 (AUC, 0.83.Although the external validation cohort clinically differed from the derivation cohort in many ways, we confirmed the moderately high generalizability of NOBLADS, a clinical risk score for severe LGIB. Appropriate triage using this score may support early decision-making in various hospitals.

Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kucukali, Serhat

2011-01-01

In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns. - Highlights: → A new methodology is proposed for risk rating of river-type hydropower plant projects. → The relative importance of the risk factors was determined from the expert judgments. → The most concerned risks have been found as environmental issues and site geology. → The proposed methodology was tested on a real case. → The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis.

External Validation of the HERNIAscore: An Observational Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Cherla, Deepa V; Moses, Maya L; Mueck, Krislynn M; Hannon, Craig; Ko, Tien C; Kao, Lillian S; Liang, Mike K

2017-09-01

The HERNIAscore is a ventral incisional hernia (VIH) risk assessment tool that uses only preoperative variables and predictable intraoperative variables. The aim of this study was to validate and modify, if needed, the HERNIAscore in an external dataset. This was a retrospective observational study of all patients undergoing resection for gastrointestinal malignancy from 2011 through 2015 at a safety-net hospital. The primary end point was clinical postoperative VIH. Patients were stratified into low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups based on HERNIAscore. A revised HERNIAscore was calculated with the addition of earlier abdominal operation as a categorical variable. Cox regression of incisional hernia with stratification by risk class was performed. Incidence rates of clinical VIH formation within each risk class were also calculated. Two hundred and forty-seven patents were enrolled. On Cox regression, in addition to the 3 variables of the HERNIAscore (BMI, COPD, and incision length), earlier abdominal operation was also predictive of VIH. The revised HERNIAscore demonstrated improved predictive accuracy for clinical VIH. Although the original HERNIAscore effectively stratified the risk of an incisional radiographic VIH developing, the revised HERNIAscore provided a statistically significant stratification for both clinical and radiographic VIHs in this patient cohort. We have externally validated and improved the HERNIAscore. The revised HERNIAscore uses BMI, incision length, COPD, and earlier abdominal operation to predict risk of postoperative incisional hernia. Future research should assess methods to prevent incisional hernias in moderate-to-high risk patients. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

Science.gov (United States)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard G.; Zhaofeng, Huang

2015-01-01

PRA methodology is one of the probabilistic analysis methods that NASA brought from the nuclear industry to assess the risk of LOM, LOV and LOC for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability and statistical data to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it? What is the severity of the degradation? Since 1986, NASA, along with industry partners, has conducted a number of PRA studies to predict the overall launch vehicles risks. Planning Research Corporation conducted the first of these studies in 1988. In 1995, Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) conducted a comprehensive PRA study. In July 1996, NASA conducted a two-year study (October 1996 - September 1998) to develop a model that provided the overall Space Shuttle risk and estimates of risk changes due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. After the Columbia accident, NASA conducted a PRA on the Shuttle External Tank (ET) foam. This study was the most focused and extensive risk assessment that NASA has conducted in recent years. It used a dynamic, physics-based, integrated system analysis approach to understand the integrated system risk due to ET foam loss in flight. Most recently, a PRA for Ares I launch vehicle has been performed in support of the Constellation program. Reliability, on the other hand, addresses the loss of functions. In a broader sense, reliability engineering is a discipline that involves the application of engineering principles to the design and processing of products, both hardware and software, for meeting product reliability requirements or goals. It is a very broad design-support discipline. It has important interfaces with many other engineering disciplines. Reliability as a figure of merit (i.e. the metric) is the probability that an item will

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

Cerebrospinal fluid leakage during transsphenoidal surgery: postoperative external lumbar drainage reduces the risk for meningitis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Aken, M. O.; Feelders, R. A.; de Marie, S.; van de Berge, J. H.; Dallenga, A. H. G.; Delwel, E. J.; Poublon, R. M. L.; Romijn, J. A.; van der Lely, A. J.; Lamberts, S. W. J.; de Herder, W. W.

2004-01-01

Postoperative meningitis is a well known complication of transsphenoidal surgery (TSS). The objective of this study was to evaluate whether postoperative external cerobrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage in case of intraoperative CSF-leakage, reduces the risk of postoperative meningitis. We

Investigation of occupational health and safety application using the internal and external factor assessment matrix: SWOT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2012-09-01

Material and Method: IIn this study, the threats, opportunities, weaknesses and strengths were evaluated by one of the tools named SWOT, in one of the assembly industries company in Iran, in order to controlling the operations in this company considering to safety and health standard (OHSAS18001. A comparison of the company’s performance in implementing the safety and health standards was done between years 1387 and 1388 contain in the Company considered, and weighted scoring weaknesses, strengths, threats and opportunities using the matrix of internal factors (strengths and weaknesses and external factors (treats and opportunities then, the importance of each factor were determined in the company’s implementation and enforcement of those standards. . Result: Focusing on the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats, some strategies to improve the implementation were presented. Any points were weighted based on the most important weaknesses identified as the lack of monitoring contractors, lack of management commitment for implementation of OHSAS18001, no attempt to identify the risks of change, lack of training needs assessment, main strengths identified in the context of adequate budget health and safety, environmental efforts, identify risk for abnormal conditions, the most important threats for immediate delivery customer orders and the opportunity to support the safety and health plans, were determined. . Conclusion: Sum of the weighted scores in year 87 were obtained for the external factors (opportunities and threats, 2.16 and internal factors (strengths and weaknesses 1.66. Both of these scores were less than 2.5 (minimum amount of the acceptable rate so, the company has been poor performance in the implementation of this standard for the year 87 and a weak reaction in the use of opportunities and the minimize threats has. In case of internal factors, it was worse than external one and the situation was more bold of the weaknesses companies to

Pesticide Environmental Accounting: a method for assessing the external costs of individual pesticide applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Leach, A W; Mumford, J D

2008-01-01

The Pesticide Environmental Accounting (PEA) tool provides a monetary estimate of environmental and health impacts per hectare-application for any pesticide. The model combines the Environmental Impact Quotient method and a methodology for absolute estimates of external pesticide costs in UK, USA and Germany. For many countries resources are not available for intensive assessments of external pesticide costs. The model converts external costs of a pesticide in the UK, USA and Germany to Mediterranean countries. Economic and policy applications include estimating impacts of pesticide reduction policies or benefits from technologies replacing pesticides, such as sterile insect technique. The system integrates disparate data and approaches into a single logical method. The assumptions in the system provide transparency and consistency but at the cost of some specificity and precision, a reasonable trade-off for a method that provides both comparative estimates of pesticide impacts and area-based assessments of absolute impacts.

Differences between self-assessment and external rating of voice with regard to sex characteristics, age, and attractiveness.

Science.gov (United States)

Sandmann, Katja; am Zehnhoff-Dinnesen, Antoinette; Schmidt, Claus-Michael; Rosslau, Ken; Lang-Roth, Ruth; Burgmer, Markus; Knief, Arne; Matulat, Peter; Vauth, Melanie; Deuster, Dirk

2014-01-01

This study investigates differences between the self-assessment and external rating of a person's voice with regard to sex characteristics, age, and attractiveness of the voice and mean fundamental frequency (F0). Cross-sectional study. A group of 47 participants with a balanced sex distribution was recruited and the following data were collected: videostroboscopy, voice range profile, F0, self-assessment questionnaire (attractiveness, masculinity or femininity of voice, and appearance), Voice Handicap Index, and questionnaires to determine levels of depression and quality of life. External rating was performed by four experts and four laymen. In both sexes, fair to moderate significant correlations between the self-assessment of masculinity (men)/femininity (women) of voice and masculinity/femininity of appearance could be found, but not between the self-assessment of attractiveness of voice and appearance. In men, a statistically significant correlation was found between external ratings and self-assessment of attractiveness and, with the exception of the female rating group, of masculinity. In women, self-assessment of femininity and attractiveness of voice did not correlate to a statistically significant extent with the evaluation of the external rater. Additionally, the statistical correlation between estimated and real ages was high. Although the objective parameters of age and gender identification could be rated with a high degree of accuracy, subjective parameters showed significant differences between self-assessment and external rating, in particular in rating women's voices. Taking these findings into account in treatments for modifying voice could impede successful interventions. As one consequence, we recommend summarizing target agreements in detail before the treatment. Copyright © 2014 The Voice Foundation. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Life Cycle Assessment, ExternE and Comprehensive Analysis for an integrated evaluation of the environmental impact of anthropogenic activities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pietrapertosa, F.; Cosmi, C. [National Research Council, Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis C.N.R.-I.M.A.A. C.da S.Loja, I-85050 Tito Scalo (PZ) (Italy); National Research Council, National Institute for the Physics of Matter, C.N.R.-I.N.F.M. Via Cinthia, I-80126 Naples (Italy); Macchiato, M. [Federico II University, Department of Physical Sciences, Via Cinthia, I-80126 Naples (Italy); National Research Council, National Institute for the Physics of Matter, C.N.R.-I.N.F.M. Via Cinthia, I-80126 Naples (Italy); Salvia, M.; Cuomo, V. [National Research Council, Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis C.N.R.-I.M.A.A. C.da S.Loja, I-85050 Tito Scalo (PZ) (Italy)

2009-06-15

The implementation of resource management strategies aimed at reducing the impacts of the anthropogenic activities system requires a comprehensive approach to evaluate on the whole the environmental burdens of productive processes and to identify the best recovery strategies from both an environmental and an economic point of view. In this framework, an analytical methodology based on the integration of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), ExternE and Comprehensive Analysis was developed to perform an in-depth investigation of energy systems. The LCA methodology, largely utilised by the international scientific community for the assessment of the environmental performances of technologies, combined with Comprehensive Analysis allows modelling the overall system of anthropogenic activities, as well as sub-systems, the economic consequences of the whole set of environmental damages. Moreover, internalising external costs into partial equilibrium models, as those utilised by Comprehensive Analysis, can be useful to identify the best paths for implementing technology innovation and strategies aimed to a more sustainable energy supply and use. This paper presents an integrated application of these three methodologies to a local scale case study (the Val D'Agri area in Basilicata, Southern Italy), aimed to better characterise the environmental impacts of the energy system, with particular reference to extraction activities. The innovative methodological approach utilised takes advantage from the strength points of each methodology with an added value coming from their integration as emphasised by the main results obtained by the scenario analysis. (author)

Comprehensive assessment of hazard and risk generated by different fuel cycles of electric energy production - results of completed and ongoing EU programmes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borysiewicz, M.; Garanty, I.; Kozubal, A.

2007-01-01

A number of international organizations and research institutions attempted to develop recommended approaches to holistic assessment of hazards and risk generated by fuel cycles of electrical energy production from fuel mining, transportation, plant construction and operation, wastes generation to installation decommissioning. It includes an interagency project coordinated by IAEA and series of projects completed in the EU programme: ExternE and a new project: NEEDS extending the methodology of ExternE for more comprehensive treatment various factors impacting health, environment, economy and energy security. The paper is a brief overview methods used in these projects and the results obtained. (author)

Assessment of Cheating Behavior in Young School-Age Children: Distinguishing Normative Behaviors From Risk Markers of Externalizing Psychopathology

Science.gov (United States)

Callender, Kevin A.; Olson, Sheryl L.; Kerr, David C. R.; Sameroff, Arnold J.

2014-01-01

The central goal of this longitudinal study was to develop a laboratory-based index of children’s covert cheating behavior that distinguished normative rule violations from those that signal risk for antisocial behavior. Participants (N = 215 children) were drawn from a community population and oversampled for externalizing behavior problems (EXT). Cheating behavior was measured using two resistance-to-temptation tasks and coded for extent of cheating, latency to cheat, and inappropriate positive affect. Mothers rated internalized conduct and three forms of self-regulation: inhibitory control, impulsivity, and affective distress. Mothers and teachers reported EXT concurrently (T1) and 4 years later, when children averaged 10 years of age (T2). Children categorized as severe cheaters manifested lower inhibitory control, greater impulsivity, and lower levels of internalized conduct at T1. Children in this group also manifested higher levels of EXT in home and school settings at T1 and more EXT in the school setting at T2, even after accounting for T1 ratings. PMID:21058125

The NUREG-1150 probabilistic risk assessment for the Sequoyah nuclear plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gregory, J.J.; Breeding, R.J.; Higgins, S.J.; Shiver, A.W.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.

1992-01-01

This paper summarizes the findings of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for Unit 1 of the Sequoyah Nuclear Plant performed in support of NUREG-1150. The emphasis is on the 'back-end' analyses, the accident progression, source term, and consequence analyses, and the risk results obtained when the results of these analyses are combined with the accident frequency analysis. The results of this PRA indicate that the offsite risk from internal initiating events at Sequoyah are quite low with respect to the safety goals. The containment appears likely to withstand the loads that might be placed upon it if the reactor vessel fails. A good portion of the risk, in this analysis, comes from initiating events which bypass the containment. These events are estimated to have a relatively low frequency of occurrence, but their consequences are quite large. Other events that contribute to offsite risk involve early containment failures that occur during degradation of the core or near the time of vessel breach. Considerable uncertainty is associated with the risk estimates produced in this analysis. Offsite risk from external initiating events was not included in this analysis. (orig.)

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

Assessment and exploitation of energy-related externalities in the industrial sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diakoulaki, D.; Mirasgedis, S.; Tourkolias, C.

2007-01-01

The scope of this paper is to comparatively evaluate the effectiveness of alternative policy measures in reducing impacts from atmospheric pollution generated from industrial energy use. The evaluation procedure relies on the assessment of energy-related externalities by exploiting the methodology developed in the framework of the ExternE project. The analysis focuses on 2 industrial units located in the Greater Athens area and examines three types of abatement measures that can be used independently of the extent energy saving or end-of-pipe emission reduction measures are used: substitution of fuel oil with natural gas, relocation of the units several hundreds of kilometers far from Athens and increase of stack height in the same site. It results that the use of natural gas is by far the most effective among these measures, leading to a reduction of more than 90% of both local and regional damages. The relative effectiveness of the examined measures does not change if the significant uncertainties associated with the accounting procedure are taken into account, while inclusion of the external cost due to greenhouse gases emissions is further accentuating the advantages of natural gas. Moreover, it is shown that the quantifiable energy-related external costs of a single industrial product, may be very low compared to the corresponding private costs, but they sum up to significantly high damages to society if we take into account the total energy consumption in the industrial sector

Quantification of risk considering external events on the change of allowed outage time and the preventive maintenance during power operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, D. J.; Kim, K. Y.; Yang, J. E

2001-03-01

In this study, for the major safety systems of Ulchin Units 3/4, we quantify the risk on the change of AOT and the PM during power operation to identify the effects on the results of external events PSA when nuclear power plant changes such as allowed outage time are requested. The systems for which the risks on the change of allowed outage time are quantified are High Pressure Safety Injection System (HPSIS), Containment Spray System (CSS), and Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG). The systems for which the risks on the PM during power operation are Low Pressure Safety Injection System (LPSIS), CSS, EDG, Essential Service Water System (ESWS). Following conclusions can be obtained through this study: 1)The increase of core damage frequency ({delta}CDF) on the change of AOT and the conditional core damage probability (CCDP) on the on-line PM of each system are differently quantified according to the cases of considering only internal events or only external events. . 2)It is expected that the quantification of risk including internal and external events is advantageous for the licensee of NPP if the regulatory acceptance criteria for the technical specification changes are relatively set up. However, it is expected to be disadvantageous for the licensee if the acceptance criteria are absolutely set up. 3)It is expected that the conduction on the quantification of only a fire event is sufficient when the quantification of external events PSA model is required for the plant changes of Korea Standard NPPs. 4)It is expected that the quantification of the increase of core damage frequency and the incremental conditional core damage probability on technical specification changes are not needed if the quantification results of those considering only internal events are below regulatory acceptance criteria and the external events PSA results are not greatly affected by the system availability. However, it is expected that the quantification of risk considering external events

Quantification of risk considering external events on the change of allowed outage time and the preventive maintenance during power operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, D. J.; Kim, K. Y.; Yang, J. E.

2001-03-01

In this study, for the major safety systems of Ulchin Units 3/4, we quantify the risk on the change of AOT and the PM during power operation to identify the effects on the results of external events PSA when nuclear power plant changes such as allowed outage time are requested. The systems for which the risks on the change of allowed outage time are quantified are High Pressure Safety Injection System (HPSIS), Containment Spray System (CSS), and Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG). The systems for which the risks on the PM during power operation are Low Pressure Safety Injection System (LPSIS), CSS, EDG, Essential Service Water System (ESWS). Following conclusions can be obtained through this study: 1)The increase of core damage frequency (ΔCDF) on the change of AOT and the conditional core damage probability (CCDP) on the on-line PM of each system are differently quantified according to the cases of considering only internal events or only external events. . 2)It is expected that the quantification of risk including internal and external events is advantageous for the licensee of NPP if the regulatory acceptance criteria for the technical specification changes are relatively set up. However, it is expected to be disadvantageous for the licensee if the acceptance criteria are absolutely set up. 3)It is expected that the conduction on the quantification of only a fire event is sufficient when the quantification of external events PSA model is required for the plant changes of Korea Standard NPPs. 4)It is expected that the quantification of the increase of core damage frequency and the incremental conditional core damage probability on technical specification changes are not needed if the quantification results of those considering only internal events are below regulatory acceptance criteria and the external events PSA results are not greatly affected by the system availability. However, it is expected that the quantification of risk considering external events on

One Strategy for Assessing the Trustworthiness of Qualitative Research: Operationalizing the External Audit.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Dana L.

The external audit is a way of assessing the trustworthiness of a study, attesting to its dependability from a methodological standpoint and to its confirmability by reviewing the data, analysis, and interpretations and assessing whether the findings represent the data accurately. This paper discusses issues in the audit process, drawing on data…

Predictive Accuracy of the PanCan Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model -External Validation based on CT from the Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Winkler Wille, Mathilde M.; van Riel, Sarah J.; Saghir, Zaigham

2015-01-01

Objectives: Lung cancer risk models should be externally validated to test generalizability and clinical usefulness. The Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial (DLCST) is a population-based prospective cohort study, used to assess the discriminative performances of the PanCan models. Methods: From...... the DLCST database, 1,152 nodules from 718 participants were included. Parsimonious and full PanCan risk prediction models were applied to DLCST data, and also coefficients of the model were recalculated using DLCST data. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) were...... used to evaluate risk discrimination. Results: AUCs of 0.826–0.870 were found for DLCST data based on PanCan risk prediction models. In the DLCST, age and family history were significant predictors (p = 0.001 and p = 0.013). Female sex was not confirmed to be associated with higher risk of lung cancer...

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterhouse, Rachel

1992-01-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

External exposure dose of car mechanics during the maintenance of the cars from the risk cautionary area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kawakami, Hiroto; Yamada, Norikazu; Sasaki, Satoru; Kawasaki, Satoru

2011-12-01

At the request of the Local Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters, JNES has estimated the effective external exposure dose of car mechanics during the maintenance of the cars from the risk cautionary area. JNES investigated the contamination of the cars from the risk cautionary area and of the average cars at Fukushima city cooperated by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association. Data of screed cars by the Local Nuclear Emergency Response Headquarters is also considered in. Effective external exposure dose of car mechanics treating the cars screened with the emergency situation screening level is estimated to be less than 1 mSv/y under the conservative conditions. This result shows that particular health concern isn't necessary for them. (author)

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

The Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score predicts biochemical recurrence in intermediate-risk prostate cancer treated with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) dose escalation or low-dose rate (LDR) brachytherapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnan, Vimal; Delouya, Guila; Bahary, Jean-Paul; Larrivée, Sandra; Taussky, Daniel

2014-12-01

To study the prognostic value of the University of California, San Francisco Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score to predict biochemical failure (bF) after various doses of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and/or permanent seed low-dose rate (LDR) prostate brachytherapy (PB). We retrospectively analysed 345 patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer, with PSA levels of 10-20 ng/mL and/or Gleason 7 including 244 EBRT patients (70.2-79.2 Gy) and 101 patients treated with LDR PB. The minimum follow-up was 3 years. No patient received primary androgen-deprivation therapy. bF was defined according to the Phoenix definition. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the differences between CAPRA groups. The overall bF rate was 13% (45/345). The CAPRA score, as a continuous variable, was statistically significant in multivariate analysis for predicting bF (hazard ratio [HR] 1.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.72, P = 0.006). There was a trend for a lower bF rate in patients treated with LDR PB when compared with those treated by EBRT ≤ 74 Gy (HR 0.234, 95% CI 0.05-1.03, P = 0.055) in multivariate analysis. In the subgroup of patients with a CAPRA score of 3-5, CAPRA remained predictive of bF as a continuous variable (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.01-2.27, P = 0.047) in multivariate analysis. The CAPRA score is useful for predicting biochemical recurrence in patients treated for intermediate-risk prostate cancer with EBRT or LDR PB. It could help in treatment decisions. © 2013 The Authors. BJU International © 2013 BJU International.

A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2009-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

ExternE: Externalities of energy Vol. 4. Oil and gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friedrich, R.; Krewitt, W.; Mayerhofer, P.

1995-01-01

Awareness of the environmental damage resulting from human activity, particularly commencing energy use, has grown greatly in recent years. Effects such as global warming, ozone depletion and acid rain are now the subjects of much research and public debate. It is now known that these and other effects damage a wide range of receptors, including human health, forests, crops, freshwater ecosystems and buildings. Such damages are typically not accounted for by the producers and consumers of the good in question (in this case energy). They are thus referred to as 'external costs' or 'externalities', to distinguish them from the private costs which account for the construction of plant, cost of fuel, wages, etc. In recent years there has been a growing interest in the assessment of the environmental and health impacts of energy, and the related external costs. This concern is driven by a number of different factors: the need to integrate environmental concerns in decision making over the choice between different fuels and energy technologies; the need to evaluate the costs and benefits of stricter environmental standards; increased attention to the use of economic instruments for environmental policy, the need to develop overall indicators of environmental performance of different technologies; major changes in the energy sector, including privatisation, liberalisation of markets, reduction of subsidies, etc. An agreed methodology for calculation and integration of external costs has not been established. Earlier work is typically of a preliminary nature and tends to be deficient with respect to both the methods employed and the quality of models and data used. In consequence of this a collaborative project, the EC/US Fuel Cycles Study, was established between Directorate General XLI (Science, Research and Technology) of the European Commission and the United States Department of Energy. This ran for the period 1991 to 1993, and good agreement on a variety of

Life cycle assessment of a wind farm and related externalities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schleisner, Liselotte

2000-01-01

This paper concentrates on the assessment of energy and emissions related to the production and manufacture of materials for an offshore wind farm as well as a wind farm on land based on a life cycle analysis (LCA) model. In Denmark a model has been developed for life cycle assessments of different...... materials. The model is able to assess the energy use related to the production, transportation and manufacture of 1 kg of material. The energy use is divided into fuels used in order to estimate the emissions through the life cycle. In the paper the model and the attached assumptions are described......, and the model is demonstrated for two wind farms. The externalities for the wind farms are reported, showing the importance of life cycle assessment for renewable energy technologies. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

AN APPROACH TO THE EXTERNAL ASSESSMENT THROUGH EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ismael Sanz Labrador

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This article presents the empiral evidences of standardized evaluations and explores the aspects of such evaluations more interesting to the educational community, and investigates the effects in implementing those exams on the performance of students. Furthermore, it is analyzed the relationship between external evaluations and teaching to the test , it is seen how it affects the introduction of these evaluations in student learning and their performance in international assessments of different characteristics, and the effect it produces in schools located in disadvantaged areas.

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

Development of risk assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors. (3) Numerical simulations of forest fire spread and smoke transport as an external hazard assessment methodology development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Okano, Yasushi; Yamano, Hidemasa

2015-01-01

As a part of a development of the risk assessment methodologies against external hazards, a new methodology to assess forest fire hazards is being developed. Frequency and consequence of the forest fire are analyzed to obtain the hazard intensity curve and then Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment is performed to obtain the conditional core damage probability due to the challenges by the forest fire. 'Heat', 'flame', 'smoke' and 'flying object' are the challenges to a nuclear power plant. For a sodium-cooled fast reactor, a decay heat removal under accident conditions is operated with an ultimate heat sink of air, then, the challenge by 'smoke' will potentially be on the air filter of the system. In this paper, numerical simulations of forest fire propagation and smoke transport were performed with sensibility studies to weather conditions, and the effect by the smoke on the air filter was quantitatively evaluated. Forest fire propagation simulations were performed using FARSITE code. A temporal increase of a forest fire spread area and a position of the frontal fireline are obtained by the simulation, and 'reaction intensity' and 'frontal fireline intensity' as the indexes of 'heat' are obtained as well. The boundary of the fire spread area is shaped like an ellipse on the terrain, and the boundary length is increased with time and fire spread. The sensibility analyses on weather conditions of wind, temperature, and humidity were performed, and it was summarized that 'forest fire spread rate' and 'frontal fireline intensity' depend much on wind speed and humidity. Smoke transport simulations were performed by ALOFT-FT code where three-dimensional spatial distribution of smoke density, especially of particle matters of PM2.5 and PM10, are evaluated. The snapshot outputs, namely 'reaction intensity' and 'position of frontal fireline', from the sensibility studies of the FARSITE were directly utilized as the input data for ALOFT-FT, whereas it is assumed that the

Antimony Trioxide (ATO) - Summary of External Peer Review and Public Comments and Disposition

Science.gov (United States)

This document summarizes the public and external peer review comments that the EPA’s Office of Pollution Prevention and Toxics (OPPT) received for the draft work plan risk assessment for Antimony Trioxide (ATO).

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk assessment of amorphous silicon dioxide nanoparticles in a glass cleaner formulation

Science.gov (United States)

Scheel, Julia; Karsten, Stefan; Stelter, Norbert; Wind, Thorsten

2013-01-01

Since nanomaterials are a heterogeneous group of substances used in various applications, risk assessment needs to be done on a case-by-case basis. Here the authors assess the risk (hazard and exposure) of a glass cleaner with synthetic amorphous silicon dioxide (SAS) nanoparticles during production and consumer use (spray application). As the colloidal material used is similar to previously investigated SAS, the hazard profile was considered to be comparable. Overall, SAS has a low toxicity. Worker exposure was analysed to be well controlled. The particle size distribution indicated that the aerosol droplets were in a size range not expected to reach the alveoli. Predictive modelling was used to approximate external exposure concentrations. Consumer and environmental exposure were estimated conservatively and were not of concern. It was concluded based on the available weight-of-evidence that the production and application of the glass cleaner is safe for humans and the environment under intended use conditions. PMID:22548260

The EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment: lessons learned regarding passive safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.; Roglans, J.

1998-01-01

This paper summarizes the results from the EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1.6 10 -6 yr -1 , even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The annual frequency of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquakes) is 3.6 10 -6 yr -1 and the contribution of seismic events is 1.7 10 -5 yr -1 . Overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability

The EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment: lessons learned regarding passive safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hill, D J; Ragland, W A; Roglans, J

1998-11-01

This paper summarizes the results from the EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1.6 10{sup -6} yr{sup -1}, even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The annual frequency of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquakes) is 3.6 10{sup -6} yr{sup -1} and the contribution of seismic events is 1.7 10{sup -5} yr{sup -1}. Overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability.

The EBR-II probabilistic risk assessment lessons learned regarding passive safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.; Roglans, J.

1994-01-01

This paper summarizes the results from the recently completed EBR-II Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and provides an analysis of the source of risk of the operation of EBR-II from both internal and external initiating events. The EBR-II PRA explicitly accounts for the role of reactivity feedbacks in reducing fuel damage. The results show that the expected core damage frequency from internal initiating events at EBR-II is very low, 1.6 10 -6 yr -1 , even with a wide definition of core damage (essentially that of exceeding Technical Specification limits). The annual frequency of damage, primarily due to liquid metal fires, from externally initiated events (excluding earthquakes) is 3.6 10 -6 yr -1 and the contribution of seismic events is 1.7 10 -5 yr -1 . Overall these results are considerably better than results for other research reactors and the nuclear industry in general and stem from three main sources: low likelihood of loss of coolant due to low system pressure and top entry double vessels; low likelihood of loss of decay heat removal due to reliance on passive means; and low likelihood of power/flow mismatch due to both passive feedbacks and reliability of rod scram capability

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

Implementation of PSA models to estimate the probabilities associated with external event combination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burgazzi, Luciano

2014-01-01

This note endeavors to address some significant issues revealed by the Fukushima accident in Japan in 2011, such as the analysis of various dependency aspects arisen in the light of the external event PSA framework, as the treatment of the correlated hazards. To this aim some foundational notions to implement the PSA models related to specific aspects, like the external hazard combination, e.g., earthquake and tsunami as at the Fukushima accident, and the external hazard-caused internal events, e.g., seismic induced fire, are proposed and discussed to be incorporated within the risk assessment structure. Risk assessment of external hazards is required and utilized as an integrated part of PRA for operating and new reactor units. In the light of the Fukushima accident, of special interest are correlated events, whose modelling is proposed in the present study, in the form of some theoretical concepts, which lay the foundations for the PSA framework implementation. An applicative example is presented for illustrative purposes, since the analysis is carried out on the basis of generic numerical values assigned to an oversimplified model and results are achieved without any baseline comparison. Obviously the first step aimed at the process endorsement is the analysis of all available information in order to determine the level of applicability of the observed specific plant site events to the envisaged model and the statistical correlation analysis for event occurrence data that can be used as part of this process. Despite these drawbacks that actually do not qualify the achieved results, the present work represents an exploratory study aimed at resolving current open issues to be resolved in the PSA, like topics related to unanticipated scenarios: the combined external hazards of the earthquake and tsunami in Fukushima, external hazards causing internal events, such as seismic induced fire. These topics are to be resolved among the other ones as emerging from the

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

1997-01-01

Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

GAR Global Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

Significance assessment of the external control effects of lecturers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kurbatova Margarita, V.

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The state policy regarding higher education has changed in the last decade. These changes were part of the efficiency programs of the public sector. Governments of different countries ruined previously existing system of higher education state regulation and attempted to build the quasi-market structure in the higher education industry. Such transformations served as timely and progressive reforms in the recent studies of the economics of education. Substitution of bureaucratic management mechanisms and modern competition managerial tools are articulated. Economic and institutional and sociological studies on the effects of the introduction of quasi-markets and managerial tools in higher education governance oppose to orthodox market approach. They drew attention to the fact that evaluation methods and improve the effectiveness of organizations and employees that are typical of the private sector often produce results that differ from those in the public sector. To assess the consequences of the introduction of managerial tools of external control activities of university lecturers used a methodology based on the allocation of the individual structural components (effects and building on their basis of a multi-level hierarchical model in the research. Each component of the model (single effect is characterized by a degree of significance (importance and the degree of severity. The results of the systematization and assessment of the significance of the effects of external control activity of lecturers of Russian universities implemented in conditions of quasi-market mechanisms of the higher education system are highlighted in the paper.

Mode of delivery after successful external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

de Hundt, Marcella; Velzel, Joost; de Groot, Christianne J; Mol, Ben W; Kok, Marjolein

2014-06-01

To assess the mode of delivery in women after a successful external cephalic version by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and the Cochrane Library for studies reporting on the mode of delivery in women after successful external cephalic version at term and women with a spontaneous cephalic-presenting fetus. Two reviewers independently selected studies, extracted data, and assessed study quality. The association between mode of delivery and successful external cephalic version was expressed as a common odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval (CI). We identified three cohort studies and eight case-control studies, reporting on 46,641 women. The average cesarean delivery rate for women with a successful external cephalic version was 21%. Women after successful external cephalic version were at increased risk for cesarean delivery for dystocia (odds ratio [OR] 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-3.0), cesarean delivery for fetal distress (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.6-2.9), and instrumental vaginal delivery (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.7). Women who have had a successful external cephalic version for breech presentation are at increased risk for cesarean delivery and instrumental vaginal delivery as compared with women with a spontaneous cephalic presentation. Nevertheless, with a number needed to treat of three, external cephalic version still remains a very efficient procedure to prevent a cesarean delivery.

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

Risk assessments ensure safer power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-02-19

A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

The Prospective Association Between Internalizing Symptoms and Adolescent Alcohol Involvement and the Moderating Role of Age and Externalizing Symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Colder, Craig R; Shyhalla, Kathleen; Frndak, Seth; Read, Jennifer P; Lengua, Liliana J; Hawk, Larry W; Wieczorek, William F

2017-12-01

As predicted by self-medication theories that drinking is motivated by a desire to ameliorate emotional distress, some studies find internalizing symptoms (e.g., anxiety, depression) increase risk of adolescent drinking; however, such a risk effect has not been supported consistently. Our prior work examined externalizing symptoms as a potential moderator of the association between internalizing symptoms and adolescent alcohol use to explain some of the inconsistencies in the literature. We found that internalizing symptoms were protective against early adolescent alcohol use particularly for youth elevated on externalizing symptoms (a 2-way interaction). Our sample has now been followed for several additional assessments that extend into young adulthood, and the current study tests whether the protective effect of internalizing symptoms may change as youth age into young adulthood, and whether this age-moderating effect varied across different clusters of internalizing symptoms (social anxiety, generalized anxiety, and depression). Internalizing symptoms were hypothesized to shift from a protective factor to a risk factor with age, particularly for youth elevated on externalizing symptoms. A community sample of 387 adolescents was followed for 9 annual assessments (mean age = 12.1 years at the first assessment and 55% female). Multilevel cross-lagged 2-part zero-inflated Poisson models were used to test hypotheses. The most robust moderating effects were for levels of alcohol use, such that the protective effect of all internalizing symptom clusters was most evident in the context of moderate to high levels of externalizing problems. A risk effect of internalizing symptoms was evident at low levels of externalizing symptoms. With age, the risk and protective effects of internalizing symptoms were evident at less extreme levels of externalizing behavior. With respect to alcohol-related problems, findings did not support age moderation for generalized anxiety or

Risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

2010-01-01

International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

Externalities of energy. Swedish implementation of the ExternE methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nilsson, Maans; Gullberg, M.

1998-01-01

The growing interest for developing economic instruments for efficient environmental policies has opened up a large area of multi-disciplinary research. ExternE is an example of this research, combining disciplines such as engineering, ecology, immunology and economics expertise to create new knowledge about how environmental pressures from energy production affect our nature and society. The ExternE Project aims to identify and, as far as possible quantify the externalities of energy production in Europe. The Stockholm Environment Institute has carried out a preliminary aggregation: -Coal Fuel Cycle: centred around Vaesteraas Kraftvaermeverk, Vaesteraas. This is the largest co-generation plant in Sweden, with four blocks and a maximum co-generation output of 520 MW electricity and 950 MW heat. The analysis is carried out on boiler B4. -Biomass Fuel Cycle: centred around Haendeloeverket, Norrkoeping. This plant predominately burns forestry residues, but a variety of fuels are combusted. Haendeloeverket has an installed capacity of 100 MW electricity and 375 MW heat, in a total of three boilers and two back-pressure turbines. The analysis is carried out on boiler P13. -Hydro Fuel Cycle: Klippens Kraftstation, Storuman. Built in 1990-1994, it is the youngest hydro power station in Sweden. It has been designed and built with significant efforts to account for and protect environmental values. Installed capacity is 28 MW. The environmental impact assessment from the construction of this plant is carried out, but the evaluation is still not finalized. The preliminary aggregation aimed to test whether ExternE results could be used to make estimates for the entire Swedish electricity production system. Hence, national results as well as results from other partner countries in ExternE has been applied

Lung cancer risk in relation to traffic-related nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs exposure: a preliminary probabilistic assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Chung-Min; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Wei-Yu; Ju, Yun-Ru; Li, Wen-Hsuan; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Vivian Hsiu-Chuan; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

2011-06-15

Exposures to carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been linked to human lung cancer. The purpose of this study was to assess lung cancer risk caused by inhalation exposure to nano/ultrafine particle-bound PAHs at the population level in Taiwan appraised with recent published data. A human respiratory tract model was linked with a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model to estimate deposition fraction and internal organic-specific PAHs doses. A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed to estimate potential lung cancer risk. We reanalyzed particle size distribution, total-PAHs, particle-bound benzo(a)pyrene (B[a]P) and PM concentrations. A dose-response profile describing the relationships between external B[a]P concentration and lung cancer risk response was constructed based on population attributable fraction (PAF). We found that 90% probability lung cancer risks ranged from 10(-5) to 10(-4) for traffic-related nano and ultrafine particle-bound PAHs, indicating a potential lung cancer risk. The particle size-specific PAF-based excess annual lung cancer incidence rate due to PAHs exposure was estimated to be less than 1 per 100,000 population, indicating a mild risk factor for lung cancer. We concluded that probabilistic risk assessment linked PAF for limiting cumulative PAHs emissions to reduce lung cancer risk plays a prominent role in future government risk assessment program. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Radiation risk assessment of reprocessed uranium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cardenas, Hugo R.; Perez, Aldo E.; Luna, Manuel F.; Becerra, Fabian A.

1999-01-01

Reprocessed uranium contains 232 U, which is not found in nature, as well as 234 U which is present in higher proportion than in natural uranium. Both isotopes modify the radiological properties of the material. The paper evaluates the increase of the internal and external radiation risk on the base of experimental data and theoretical calculations. It also suggests measures to be taken in the production of fuel elements with slightly enriched uranium.The radiation risk of reprocessed uranium is directly proportional to the content of 232 U and 234 U as well as to the aging time of the material

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

Science.gov (United States)

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

Explosion approach for external safety assessment: a case study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, D. Michael; Halford, Ann [Germanischer Lloyd, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2009-07-01

Several questions related to the potential for explosions are explored as this became an important subject during an enterprise risk analysis. The understanding of explosions underwent a substantial evolution in the final 20 years of the 20{sup th} century following international research projects in Europe involving several research institutes, as well gas and oil companies. This led to the development of techniques that could be used to assess the potential consequences of explosions on oil, gas and petrochemical facilities. This paper presents an overview of the potential for explosions in communities close to industrial sites or pipelines right of way (RoW), where the standard explosion assessment methods cannot be applied. With reference to experimental studies, the potential for confined explosions in buildings and Vapor Cloud Explosions is explored. Vapor Cloud Explosion incidents in rural or urban areas are also discussed. The method used for incorporating possible explosion and fire events in risk studies is also described using a case study. Standard explosion assessment methodologies and a revised approach are compared as part of an on going evaluation of risk (author)

ASN guide project. Protection of base nuclear installations against external flooding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

This guide aims at defining criteria to be taken into account to assess risks of flooding of a nuclear installation in case of external flooding, at proposing an acceptable method to assess such risks, at listing recommendations to define protection means adapted to the peculiarities of the flood risk and implemented by the operators with respect to the life phases of the installation, and in taking the climate change into account. The first part proposes an approach allowing the identification of reference situations which are to be taken into account for the flood risk. The second part deals with the quantification of parameters which characterize physical phenomena associated with these situations. The third part identifies the peculiarities of the flood risk as well as the guiding principles for designing options and protection mean selection with respect to a given flood risk

Development of margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards. (2) Tornado PRA methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamano, Hidemasa

2014-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for external events has been recognized as an important safety assessment method after the TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident. The PRA should be performed not only for earthquake and tsunami which are especially key events in Japan, but also the PRA methodology should be developed for the other external hazards (e.g. tornado). In this study, the methodology was developed for Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors paying attention to that the ambient air is their final heat sink for removing decay heat under accident conditions. First, tornado hazard curve was estimated by using data recorded in Japan. Second, important structures and components for decay heat removal were identified and an event tree resulting in core damage was developed in terms of wind load and missiles (i.e. steel pipes, boards and cars) caused by a tornado. Main damage cause for important structures and components is the missiles and the tornado missiles that can reach those components and structures placed on high elevations were identified, and the failure probabilities of the components and structures against the tornado missiles were calculated as a product of two probabilities: i.e., a probability for the missiles to enter the intake or outtake in the decay heat removal system, and a probability of failure caused by the missile impacts. Finally, the event tree was quantified. As a result, the core damage frequency was enough lower than 10 -10 /ry. (author)

Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Rausand, Marvin

2011-01-01

With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

Assessing Air Pollutant-Induced, Health-Related External Costs in the Context of Nonmarginal System Changes: A Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Bachmann, Till M

2015-08-18

Marginal analysis is the usual approach to environmental economic assessment, for instance, of health-related external costs due to energy-associated air pollutant emissions. However, nonlinearity exists in all steps of their assessment, i.e., atmospheric dispersion, impact assessment, and monetary valuation. Dedicated assessments thus appear necessary when evaluating large systems or their changes such as in green accounting or the implications of economy-wide energy transitions. Corresponding approaches are reviewed. Tools already exist that allow assessing a marginal change (e.g., one power plant's emissions) for different background emission scenarios that merely need to be defined and implemented. When assessing nonmarginal changes, the top-down approach is considered obsolete, and four variants of the bottom-up approach with different application domains were identified. Variants 1 and 2 use precalculated external cost factors with different levels of sophistication, suitable for energy systems modeling, optimizing for social (i.e., private and external) costs. Providing more reliable results due to more detailed modeling, emission sources are assessed individually or jointly in variants 3 and 4, respectively. Aiming at considering nonlinearity more fully and simultaneously following marginal analysis principles, I propose a variant 3-based approach, subdividing an aggregate (i.e., a nonmarginal change) into several smaller changes. Its strengths and drawbacks, notably the associated effort, are discussed.

The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

2004-01-01

This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

Beyond design basis external flooding. Generic design assessment and lessons learned from the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacLeod, Tanya; Smith, Leslie; Allmark, Tim; Ford, Peter

2017-01-01

New reactors intended for construction in GB undergo the Office for Nuclear Regulation's (ONR's) Generic Design Assessment (GDA). GDA is a pre-licensing process that provides requesting parties with the opportunity to demonstrate at an early stage that the design is capable of meeting the legal requirements of Great Britain. During GDA, the intended reactor site may not yet be known. Therefore, requesting parties usually define a 'Generic Site' with characteristics typical for Great Britain. These characteristics should, as far as possible, bound the characteristics of known potential sites so that reactors of the proposed type could potentially be built at various suitable locations. This paper critically reviews ONR's approach to ensuring that external flooding is appropriately addressed at the GDA stage and covers: An overview of ONR's approach to post-Fukushima assessment. Changes to ONR's SAPs (Safety Assessment Principles) related to External Flooding. Two examples of post-Fukushima GDA approaches to External Flooding. Uncertainty and the provision of adequate safety measures. The paper concludes that the identification of potential vulnerabilities in the design to external flooding combined with a consideration of post-Fukushima resilience enhancements has led to increased regulatory confidence in the robustness of new reactor designs in GB against external flooding. (author)

Key outcomes from risk based assessment of pressure equipment in refineries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Firth, D.; Lichti, K.; Hill, T.; Thomas, C.; Widrig, J.; Simmonds, G.; Karstensen, A.

2012-01-01

heaters are some of the most critical high risk items in refineries specially where high viscosity products with high Total Acid Number (TAN) and high sulfur levels are processed. Often, the highest risks are in delayed coker furnaces where tube failures have occurred in some plants due to a combination of damage mechanisms such as coking, carburisation and creep. Fired heater tubes have traditionally been inspected by external inspection. A key development aimed at minimizing risk is advanced inspection using intelligent ultrasonic pigs such as FTIS TM followed by remaining life assessment (LifeQuest Heater TM ) and optimized furnace burner setup.

Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mousavi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

Assessment at the 66. day of projected external doses for populations living in the North-West fallout zone of the Fukushima nuclear accident. Impact of population evacuation measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

This document reports a dose assessment study performed by the IRSN (the French Radioprotection and Safety Nuclear Institute) 66 days after the Fukushima nuclear accident. A new dose assessment was carried out by IRSN to estimate projected doses due to external exposure from radioactive deposits, for exposure durations of 3 months, 1 year and 4 years before evacuation. The purpose of this report is to provide insight on all radiological assessments performed to the knowledge of the IRSN (the French Radioprotection and Safety Nuclear Institute) to date and the impact of population evacuation measures to be taken to minimize the medium and long-term risks of developing leukaemia or other radiation-induced cancers. This report only considers the external doses already received as well as the doses that may be received in the future from fallout deposits, regardless of doses received previously from the radioactive plume

Validation of the D'amico risk groups classification, valuation of high-risk patients with or without hormonal therapy and complications of patients with adenocarcinoma of the prostate, after treatment with external radiotherapy, Hospital Calderon Guardia, 2003-2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lopez Arias, Ever Roy

2008-01-01

D'amico risk groups have been classified to estimate the probability of biochemical recurrence after treatment for localized prostate cancer. The evolution of patients that have received external radiotherapy were analyzed according to the risk group. The medical records of 50 patients between 2003 and 2004 have been assessed and has observed the evolution of Prostatic Specific Antigen after treatment ends, at Hospital Calderon Guardia. Adverse reactions resulting from radiotherapy treatment and the organs most affected by the same have been documented nith the possibility to compare the results of similar studies in the literature. The best performance is given by receiving concomitant hormonal therapy that high risk patients of D'amico without receiving. (author) [es

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Mihalchuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

HTGR accident and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

1982-01-01

This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

EXTERNAL QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF GENERAL EDUCATION AS A FACTOR OF TEACHERS’ PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. V. Potemkinа

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. Nowadays, foreign and Russian researchers state the lack of reliable tools for diagnostics of professional gaps among teachers. It is unjustified to draw conclusions about skill level of teachers, relying only on results which are shown by pupils when holding unified state examinations and monitoring tests. However, information on results of an external assessment of quality of the general education (the USE, OGE, All-Russian test works and national researches of quality of education corresponds to professional development of teachers and more rational organization of this process.The aim of the article is to consider and discuss the relationship between professional development of teachers and external assessment of the quality of general education; the search of opportunities and terms of the results use of external evaluation procedures in teacher training.Methodology and research methods. The authors analyzed the publications (available on the Internet and in periodicals to determine the relevance of the problem and compare approaches to its solution by Russian and foreign researchers. The methods involve content analysis, problem-based and comparative analysis for the diagnosis of the current practices of teachers’ professional development. The purpose of the analysis is the inclusion of education quality assessment and evaluation results in the contents of programs of professional development of teachers.Results. The created request for the profitability analysis results of an external assessment of general education quality of professional development of pedagogical staff is observed. However, the analysis of modern practice of additional professional pedagogical education showed that the preparation to prevails; certification procedure results for improvement of pedagogical activity are rarely used. The main reasons for this situation are found out: lack of the target information products for system of professional

Cumulative health risk assessment: integrated approaches for multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rice, Glenn; Teuschler, Linda; MacDonel, Margaret; Butler, Jim; Finster, Molly; Hertzberg, Rick; Harou, Lynne

2007-01-01

Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As information about environmental contamination has increased in recent years, so has public interest in the combined effects of multiple contaminants. This interest has been highlighted by recent tragedies such as the World Trade Center disaster and hurricane Katrina. In fact, assessing multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects has long been an issue for contaminated sites, including U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) legacy waste sites. Local citizens have explicitly asked the federal government to account for cumulative risks, with contaminants moving offsite via groundwater flow, surface runoff, and air dispersal being a common emphasis. Multiple exposures range from ingestion and inhalation to dermal absorption and external gamma irradiation. Three types of concerns can lead to cumulative assessments: (1) specific sources or releases - e.g., industrial facilities or accidental discharges; (2) contaminant levels - in environmental media or human tissues; and (3) elevated rates of disease - e.g., asthma or cancer. The specific initiator frames the assessment strategy, including a determination of appropriate models to be used. Approaches are being developed to better integrate a variety of data, extending from environmental to internal co-location of contaminants and combined effects, to support more practical assessments of cumulative health risks. (authors)

Risk assessment and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisk, D.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

Risk assessment and the environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1988-01-01

A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

Science.gov (United States)

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

An assessment of the Pacific Regional Cancer Coalition: outcomes and implications of a regional coalition internal and external assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Sy, Angela U; Heckert, Karen A; Buenconsejo-Lum, Lee; Hedson, Johnny; Tamang, Suresh; Palafox, Neal

2011-11-01

The Pacific Regional Cancer Coalition (PRCC) provides regional leadership in the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) to implement the Regional Comprehensive Control Plan: 2007-2012, and to evaluate its coalition and partnerships. The Pacific Center of Excellence in the Elimination of Disparities (CEED), aims to reduce cancer disparities and conducts evaluation activities relevant to cancer prevention and control in the USAPI. The PRCC Self (internal) and Partner (external) Assessments were conducted to assess coalition functioning, regional and national partnerships, sustainability, and the role of regionalism for integrating all chronic disease prevention and control in the Pacific. Self-administered questionnaires and key informant telephone interviews with PRCC members (N=20), and representatives from regional and national partner organizations were administered (N=26). Validated multi item measures using 5-point scales on coalition and partnership characteristics were used. Chronbach's alphas and averages for the measures were computed. Internal coalition measures: satisfaction (4.2, SD=0.48) communication (4.0, SD=0.56), respect (4.0, SD=0.60) were rated more highly than external partnership measures: resource sharing (3.5, SD=0.74), regionalism (3.9, SD=0.47), use of findings (3.9, SD=0.50). The PRCC specifically identified its level of "collaboration" with external partners including Pacific CEED. External partners identified its partnership with the PRCC in the "coalition" stage. PRCC members and external partners are satisfied with their partnerships. All groups should continue to focus on building collaboration with partners to reflect a truly regional approach to sustain the commitment, the coalitions and the programming to reduce cancer in the USAPI. PRCC and partners should also work together to integrate all chronic disease prevention and control efforts in the Pacific.

Operational Risk Assessment and Management in Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viktorija Stasytytė

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Modern organizations have raised a need to actively and quickly react to the changes in external business environment, as well as in internal processes considering not only the present situation, but also evaluating possible changes and forecasting the future. Enterprise risk assessment and management, which is strongly related with foreseeing the uncertain future, becomes topical not only scientifically, but also practically seeking to reveal new and unique solutions. Operational risk management in small and medium enterprises, creating the largest part of value added in the whole European Union, demands a separate attention and coordinated decisions and means. The objective of the paper – to analyse the process of enterprise risk management in small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as to propose adequate risk management solutions for these companies. After performing a research, it was found out that small and medium enterprises more than big organizations require a risk management strategy and methodology, need to distinguish activity objectives and events influencing them, and they can efficiently apply a risk portfolio method to manage risk. In small and medium enterprises it is recommended to incorporate a risk management system based on COSO ERM model that can be modified depending on company needs and possibilities, turning it into less formal and structured and easily applicable.

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, K.C.

1992-01-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

1992-07-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Carbon Monoxide (Second External Review Draft, Sep 2009)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced that the Second External Review Draft of the Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Carbon Monoxide (CO) and related Annexes was made available for independent peer review and public review. This draft ISA document represents a concise synthesis and evaluation of t...

Derivation of endogenous equivalent values to support risk assessment and risk management decisions for an endogenous carcinogen: Ethylene oxide.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirman, C R; Hays, S M

2017-12-01

An approach is presented for ethylene oxide (EO) to derive endogenous equivalent (EE) values, which are endogenous levels normally found within the body expressed in terms of exogenous exposures. EE values can be used to support risk assessment and risk management decisions for chemicals such as EO that have both endogenous and exogenous exposure pathways. EE values were derived using a meta-analysis of data from the published literature characterizing the distribution for an EO biomarker of exposure, hemoglobin N-(2-hydroxyethyl)-valine (HEV), in unexposed populations. These levels are compared to the those reported in exposed populations (smokers, workers). Correlation between the biomarker of exposure and external exposures of EO were applied to this distribution to determine corresponding EE values, which range from 0.13 to 6.9 ppb for EO in air. These values are orders of magnitude higher than risk-based concentration values derived for EO using default methods, and are provided as a pragmatic, data-driven alternative approach to managing the potential risks from exogenous exposures to EO. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Japke F; Stuiver, Martijn M; Timmermans, Adriana J; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W M

2018-05-01

TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442 patients with T3T4N0N+M0 larynx cancer. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping samples and externally validated on patient data from five external centers (n = 770). The main outcome was performance of the model as tested by discrimination, calibration, and the ability to distinguish risk groups based on tertiles from the derivation dataset. The model performance was compared to a model based on T and N classification only. We included age, gender, T and N classification, and subsite as prognostic variables in the standard model. After external validation, the standard model had a significantly better fit than a model based on T and N classification alone (C statistic, 0.59 vs. 0.55, P statistic to 0.68. A risk prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer, consisting of readily available clinical variables, gives more accurate estimations of the estimated 5-year survival rate when compared to a model based on T and N classification alone. 2c. Laryngoscope, 128:1140-1145, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

OpenAIRE

Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

2017-01-01

The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrese, Edward J

2015-04-01

The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Părăian Mihaela

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

Assessment of population external irradiation doses with consideration of Rospotrebnadzor bodies equipment for monitoring of photon radiation dose

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. P. Stamat

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper provides review of equipment and methodology for measurement of photon radiation dose; analysis of possible reasons for considerable deviation between the Russian Federation population annual effective external irradiation doses and the relevant average global value. Data on Rospotrebnadzor bodies dosimetry equipment used for measurement of gamma radiation dose are collected and systematized. Over 60 kinds of dosimeters are used for monitoring of population external irradiation doses. Most of dosimeters used in the country have gas-discharge detectors (Geiger-Mueller counters, minor biochemical annunciators, etc. which have higher total values of own background level and of space radiation response than the modern dosimeters with scintillation detectors. This feature of dosimeters is apparently one of most plausible reasons of a bit overstating assessment of population external irradiation doses. The options for specification of population external irradiation doses assessment are: correction of gamma radiation dose measurement results with consideration of dosimeters own background level and space radiation response, introduction of more up-to-date dosimeters with scintillation detectors, etc. The most promising direction of research in verification of population external irradiation doses assessment is account of dosimetry equipment.

Certification of health care organisations, assessment of professional practices and external radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdelmoumene, N.; Le Moign, R.

2009-01-01

In France, accreditation of health care organisations (HCOs) is mandatory every 4 years. It is based on a systemic approach and, since 2004, includes professional practice appraisal (EPP) against good practice guidelines. However, following an incident in Epinal, a new quality assurance criterion was introduced in 2007 for external radiotherapy (ERT) on top of the annual inspection of patient radiation protection by the Nuclear Safety Authority. In the accreditation procedure starting January 2010, ERT work organisation will come under 'high-risk activity' (criterion 26b) and radio-vigilance will be included in the adverse events reporting system (8i). In addition, ERT will have to comply with many generic criteria on quality and safety improvement. For example, practice appraisal of all clinical activities will become routine. Thus, besides self-assessment against criteria 26b and 8i, ERT professionals will have report the impact of their quality improvement actions on patient care. They will be able to freely choose the area for improvement, as long as it is in line with the HCO's overall quality and safety plan. In oncology, multidisciplinary team meetings for deciding on the treatment plan, as well as mortality and morbidity meetings providing feedback, are compulsory (28a). Appraisal of appropriateness of care (28b) and indicator-based practice appraisal (28c) complete the process. In conclusion, the generic practice appraisal approach that is part of the French HCO accreditation procedure can contribute toward improving health care and education, but it has not been designed for in-depth assessment of complex, multidisciplinary clinical practice such as ERT. Such assessment requires a specific clinical audit and specialized auditors. (authors)

Differential risk for late adolescent conduct problems and mood dysregulation among children with early externalizing behavior problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Okado, Yuko; Bierman, Karen L

2015-05-01

To investigate the differential emergence of antisocial behaviors and mood dysregulation among children with externalizing problems, the present study prospectively followed 317 high-risk children with early externalizing problems from school entry (ages 5-7) to late adolescence (ages 17-19). Latent class analysis conducted on their conduct and mood symptoms in late adolescence revealed three distinct patterns of symptoms, characterized by: 1) criminal offenses, conduct disorder symptoms, and elevated anger ("conduct problems"), 2) elevated anger, dysphoric mood, and suicidal ideation ("mood dysregulation"), and 3) low levels of severe conduct and mood symptoms. A diathesis-stress model predicting the first two outcomes was tested. Elevated overt aggression at school entry uniquely predicted conduct problems in late adolescence, whereas elevated emotion dysregulation at school entry uniquely predicted mood dysregulation in late adolescence. Experiences of low parental warmth and peer rejection in middle childhood moderated the link between early emotion dysregulation and later mood dysregulation but did not moderate the link between early overt aggression and later conduct problems. Thus, among children with early externalizing behavior problems, increased risk for later antisocial behavior or mood dysfunction may be identifiable in early childhood based on levels of overt aggression and emotion dysregulation. For children with early emotion dysregulation, however, increased risk for mood dysregulation characterized by anger, dysphoric mood, and suicidality--possibly indicative of disruptive mood dysregulation disorder--emerges only in the presence of low parental warmth and/or peer rejection during middle childhood.

Chlorine transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

1977-02-01

An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

Risk assessment in maritime transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

2001-01-01

A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

Framework for ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

1992-02-01

Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

Novel Risk Engine for Diabetes Progression and Mortality in USA: Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO).

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Hui; Fonseca, Vivian; Stoecker, Charles; Liu, Shuqian; Shi, Lizheng

2018-05-03

There is an urgent need to update diabetes prediction, which has relied on the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) that dates back to 1970 s' European populations. The objective of this study was to develop a risk engine with multiple risk equations using a recent patient cohort with type 2 diabetes mellitus reflective of the US population. A total of 17 risk equations for predicting diabetes-related microvascular and macrovascular events, hypoglycemia, mortality, and progression of diabetes risk factors were estimated using the data from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial (n = 10,251). Internal and external validation processes were used to assess performance of the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) risk engine. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the impact of risk factors on mortality at the population level. The BRAVO risk engine added several risk factors including severe hypoglycemia and common US racial/ethnicity categories compared with the UKPDS risk engine. The BRAVO risk engine also modeled mortality escalation associated with intensive glycemic control (i.e., glycosylated hemoglobin engine for the US diabetes cohort provides an alternative to the UKPDS risk engine. It can be applied to assist clinical and policy decision making such as cost-effective resource allocation in USA.

Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

2012-04-01

To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

Novel Method for Recruiting Representative At-Risk Individuals into Cancer Prevention Trials: Online Health Risk Assessment in Employee Wellness Programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Hui, Siu-Kuen Azor; Miller, Suzanne M; Hazuda, Leah; Engelman, Kimberly; Ellerbeck, Edward F

2016-09-01

Participation in cancer prevention trials (CPT) is lower than 3 % among high-risk healthy individuals, and racial/ethnic minorities are the most under-represented. Novel recruitment strategies are therefore needed. Online health risk assessment (HRA) serves as a gateway component of nearly all employee wellness programs (EWPs) and may be a missed opportunity. This study aimed to explore employees' interest, willingness, motivators, and barriers of releasing their HRA responses to an external secure research database for recruitment purpose. We used qualitative research methods (focus group and individual interviews) to examine employees' interest and willingness in releasing their online HRA responses to an external, secure database to register as potential CPT participants. Fifteen structured interviews (40 % of study participants were of racial/ethnic minority) were conducted, and responses reached saturation after four interviews. All employees showed interest and willingness to release their online HRA responses to register as a potential CPT participant. Content analyses revealed that 91 % of participants were motivated to do so, and the major motivators were to (1) obtain help in finding personally relevant prevention trials, (2) help people they know who are affected by cancer, and/or (3) increase knowledge about CPT. A subset of participants (45 %) expressed barriers of releasing their HRA responses due to concerns about credibility and security of the external database. Online HRA may be a feasible but underutilized recruitment method for cancer prevention trials. EWP-sponsored HRA shows promise for the development of a large, centralized registry of racially/ethnically representative CPT potential participants.

Risk Assessment Strategy for Decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akira Yamaguchi

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Risk management of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station decommissioning is a great challenge. In the present study, a risk management framework has been developed for the decommissioning work. It is applied to fuel assembly retrieval from Unit 3 spent fuel pool. Whole retrieval work is divided into three phases: preparation, retrieval, and transportation and storage. First of all, the end point has been established and the success path has been developed. Then, possible threats, which are internal/external and technical/societal/management, are identified and selected. “What can go wrong?” is a question about the failure scenario. The likelihoods and consequences for each scenario are roughly estimated. The whole decommissioning project will continue for several decades, i.e., long-term perspective is important. What should be emphasized is that we do not always have enough knowledge and experience of this kind. It is expected that the decommissioning can make steady and good progress in support of the proposed risk management framework. Thus, risk assessment and management are required, and the process needs to be updated in accordance with the most recent information and knowledge on the decommissioning works.

Risk assessment strategy for decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yamaguchi, Akira; Jang, Sung Hoon [The University of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan); Hida, Kazuki [Nuclear Damage Compensation and Decommissioning Facilitation Corporation, Tokyo (Japan); Yamanaka, Yasunori [Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Tokyo (Japan); Narumiya, Yoshiyuki [The Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc., Osaka (Japan)

2017-03-15

Risk management of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station decommissioning is a great challenge. In the present study, a risk management framework has been developed for the decommissioning work. It is applied to fuel assembly retrieval from Unit 3 spent fuel pool. Whole retrieval work is divided into three phases: preparation, retrieval, and transportation and storage. First of all, the end point has been established and the success path has been developed. Then, possible threats, which are internal/external and technical/societal/management, are identified and selected. “What can go wrong?” is a question about the failure scenario. The likelihoods and consequences for each scenario are roughly estimated. The whole decommissioning project will continue for several decades, i.e., long-term perspective is important. What should be emphasized is that we do not always have enough knowledge and experience of this kind. It is expected that the decommissioning can make steady and good progress in support of the proposed risk management framework. Thus, risk assessment and management are required, and the process needs to be updated in accordance with the most recent information and knowledge on the decommissioning works.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

External quality assessment programs in the context of ISO 15189 accreditation.

Science.gov (United States)

Sciacovelli, Laura; Secchiero, Sandra; Padoan, Andrea; Plebani, Mario

2018-05-23

Effective management of clinical laboratories participating in external quality assessment schemes (EQAS) is of fundamental importance in ensuring reliable analytical results. The International Standard ISO 15189:2012 requires participation in interlaboratory comparison [e.g. external quality assessment (EQA)] for all tests provided by an individual laboratory. If EQAS is not commercially available, alternative approaches should be identified, although clinical laboratories may find it challenging to choose the EQAS that comply with the international standards and approved guidelines. Great competence is therefore required, as well as knowledge of the characteristics and key elements affecting the reliability of an EQAS, and the analytical quality specifications stated in approved documents. Another skill of fundamental importance is the ability to identify an alternative approach when the available EQAS are inadequate or missing. Yet the choice of the right EQA program alone does not guarantee its effectiveness. In fact, the fundamental steps of analysis of the information provided in EQA reports and the ability to identify improvement actions to be undertaken call for the involvement of all laboratory staff playing a role in the specific activity. The aim of this paper was to describe the critical aspects that EQA providers and laboratory professionals should control in order to guarantee effective EQAS management and compliance with ISO 15189 accreditation requirements.

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

Genetic vulnerability interacts with parenting and early care education to predict increasing externalizing behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Lipscomb, Shannon T; Laurent, Heidemarie; Neiderhiser, Jenae M; Shaw, Daniel S; Natsuaki, Misaki N; Reiss, David; Leve, Leslie D

2014-01-01

The current study examined interactions among genetic influences and children's early environments on the development of externalizing behaviors from 18 months to 6 years of age. Participants included 233 families linked through adoption (birth parents and adoptive families). Genetic influences were assessed by birth parent temperamental regulation. Early environments included both family (overreactive parenting) and out-of-home factors (center-based Early Care and Education; ECE). Overreactive parenting predicted more child externalizing behaviors. Attending center-based ECE was associated with increasing externalizing behaviors only for children with genetic liability for dysregulation. Additionally, children who were at risk for externalizing behaviors due to both genetic variability and exposure to center-based ECE were more sensitive to the effects of overreactive parenting on externalizing behavior than other children.

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

Fetomaternal hemorrhage during external cephalic version.

Science.gov (United States)

Boucher, Marc; Marquette, Gerald P; Varin, Jocelyne; Champagne, Josette; Bujold, Emmanuel

2008-07-01

To estimate the frequency and volume of fetomaternal hemorrhage during external cephalic version for term breech singleton fetuses and to identify risk factors involved with this complication. A prospective observational study was performed including all patients undergoing a trial of external cephalic version for a breech presentation of at least 36 weeks of gestation between 1987 and 2001 in our center. A search for fetal erythrocytes using the standard Kleihauer-Betke test was obtained before and after each external cephalic version. The frequency and volume of fetomaternal hemorrhage were calculated. Putative risk factors for fetomaternal hemorrhage were evaluated by chi(2) test and Mann-Whitney U test. A Kleihauer-Betke test result was available before and after 1,311 trials of external cephalic version. The Kleihauer-Betke test was positive in 67 (5.1%) before the procedure. Of the 1,244 women with a negative Kleihauer-Betke test before external cephalic version, 30 (2.4%) had a positive Kleihauer-Betke test after the procedure. Ten (0.8%) had an estimated fetomaternal hemorrhage greater than 1 mL, and one (0.08%) had an estimated fetomaternal hemorrhage greater than 30 mL. The risk of fetomaternal hemorrhage was not influenced by parity, gestational age, body mass index, number of attempts at version, placental location, or amniotic fluid index. The risk of detectable fetomaternal hemorrhage during external cephalic version was 2.4%, with fetomaternal hemorrhage more than 30 mL in less than 0.1% of cases. These data suggest that the performance of a Kleihauer-Betke test is unwarranted in uneventful external cephalic version and that in Rh-negative women, no further Rh immune globulin is necessary other than the routine 300-microgram dose at 28 weeks of gestation and postpartum. II.

Severe accident risks: An assessment for five US nuclear power plants: Appendices A, B, and C

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-12-01

This report summarizes an assessment of the risks from severe accidents in five commercial nuclear power plants in the United States. These risks are measured in a number of ways, including: the estimated frequencies of core damage accidents from internally initiated accidents and externally initiated accidents for two or the plants; the performance of containment structures under severe accident loadings; the potential magnitude of radionuclide release and offsite consequences of such accidents; and the overall risk (the product of accident frequencies and consequences). Supporting this summary report are a large number of reports written under contract to NRC that provide the detailed discussion of the methods used and results obtained in these risk studies. Volume 2 of this report contains three appendices, providing greater detail on the methods used, an example risk calculation, and more detailed discussion of particular technical issues found important in the risk studies

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana G. Feoktistova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

Stochastic health effects assessment due to short-term external exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raicevic, J.J.; Raskob, W.; Merkle, M.; Ninkovic, M.M.

2001-01-01

The new model for calculation of stochastic health effects is presented in this paper. The exposure pathways which are briefly considered are the short-term external exposure due to passage of the radioactive cloud (cloudshine) and the short-term external exposure due to radioactive material deposited on skin and clothes (skin contamination). The quantitative assessment of stochastic effects is expressed in numbers of deaths, which are given as a functions of the time at the accident, and age at death, what on the other side enables estimation of the number of deaths within the specified range of the time/age parameters. That means the model calculates the number of deaths within one particular year, summed up over all ages at deaths, or vice versa, it finds the number of deaths within the specified range of ages at death, summed up over all observation times. Results presented in this paper are implemented in the module LATEHEAL, which is incorporated in RODOS, a new European system for decision support for nuclear emergencies. (author)

External exposure assessment in dwelling built with phosphogypsum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Villaverde, Freddy Lazo

2008-01-01

In this study it was evaluated the viability of the use of phosphogypsum plates as a building material in the dwelling construction. Thus, the effective dose due to external gamma exposure was assessed through the 226 Ra, 232 Th, 210 Pb e 40 K activity concentration in phosphogypsum plates. Samples of this material were analyzed by high resolution gamma spectrometry for their natural radionuclide activity concentration. The radium equivalent activity and extern ai and inter nai hazard indices were also calculated. The plates were made with phosphogypsum from fertilizer industries located in Cajati, Cubatao and Uberaba. The samples were identified according to phosphogypsum origin, Cajati (CA), Cubatao (CT) and Uberaba (UB). The activity concentrations results varied from 15.9 to 392 Bq kg -1 for 226 Ra, 26.1 to 253 Bq kg -1 for 232 Th, and 27.4 to 852 Bq kg -1 for 210 Pb. The results of 40 K were lower than 81 Bq kg -1 . The annual effective dose was obtained through the dosimetric model with reference standard room concept, the results were 0.02 mSv y -1 for a house built with phosphogypsum from origin CA, 0.2 mSvy -1 for CT phosphogypsum and 0.14 mSvy -1 for UB phosphogypsum, everything the effective doses were below 1 mSvy -1 , an annual effective dose limit for public exposure by International Commission on Radiological Protection. (author)

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Risk assessment of intake of foods and soil, and air radiation dose after Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujinaga, Aiichiro; Yoneda, Minoru; Ikegami, Maiko

2012-01-01

Risk assessment of soil contaminated with radionuclides, due to the accident of Fukushima nuclear power plant after the earthquake on March 11, 2011, was carried out by considering consumption of the contaminated food. The exposure routes were set as food intake, ingestion and inhalation of soil particles, and external radiation from the ground. As a result, exposures by ingestion, and inhalation of soil particles were negligible, and exposure by food intake and external exposure from the ground were comparatively large. This study shows air dose by the accident should be under 0.2 μSv/hour in order to control the radiation dose with consumption of food under 1 μSv/year. (author)

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-11-15

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

External validation of prognostic models to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in one Dutch cohort: prospective multicentre cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lamain-de Ruiter, Marije; Kwee, Anneke; Naaktgeboren, Christiana A; de Groot, Inge; Evers, Inge M; Groenendaal, Floris; Hering, Yolanda R; Huisjes, Anjoke J M; Kirpestein, Cornel; Monincx, Wilma M; Siljee, Jacqueline E; Van 't Zelfde, Annewil; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Vankan-Buitelaar, Simone A; Vonk, Mariska A A W; Wiegers, Therese A; Zwart, Joost J; Franx, Arie; Moons, Karel G M; Koster, Maria P H

2016-08-30

 To perform an external validation and direct comparison of published prognostic models for early prediction of the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus, including predictors applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy.  External validation of all published prognostic models in large scale, prospective, multicentre cohort study.  31 independent midwifery practices and six hospitals in the Netherlands.  Women recruited in their first trimester (diabetes mellitus of any type were excluded.  Discrimination of the prognostic models was assessed by the C statistic, and calibration assessed by calibration plots.  3723 women were included for analysis, of whom 181 (4.9%) developed gestational diabetes mellitus in pregnancy. 12 prognostic models for the disorder could be validated in the cohort. C statistics ranged from 0.67 to 0.78. Calibration plots showed that eight of the 12 models were well calibrated. The four models with the highest C statistics included almost all of the following predictors: maternal age, maternal body mass index, history of gestational diabetes mellitus, ethnicity, and family history of diabetes. Prognostic models had a similar performance in a subgroup of nulliparous women only. Decision curve analysis showed that the use of these four models always had a positive net benefit.  In this external validation study, most of the published prognostic models for gestational diabetes mellitus show acceptable discrimination and calibration. The four models with the highest discriminative abilities in this study cohort, which also perform well in a subgroup of nulliparous women, are easy models to apply in clinical practice and therefore deserve further evaluation regarding their clinical impact. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Risk assessment - black art or science?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, G.

1988-01-01

Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

Leading internal and external sources of credit risk in the top South African banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tankiso Moloi

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper aimed at identifying the leading credit risk indicators in the South African banking context as well as the development of an integrated leading credit risk indicator model. A content analysis was used as a data extraction methodology and structural equation modelling was used as a data analysis methodology. The results obtained indicated that utilising the structural equation modelling, gross savings, and prime overdraft rates, number of judgements, business insolvencies and unemployment rates were formulated as leading economic and market (external indicators of credit risk in the South African banking context. Similarly, utilising the principal component analysis, bank asset quality, bank asset concentration as well as bank trading and hedging activities were formulated as leading bank specific (internal indicators of credit risk in the South African banking context. The Integrated Leading Credit Risk Indicator Model (ICRIM was formulated utilising the accepted leading credit risk indicators. The ICRIM parameters were benchmarked against the generally accepted fit indices such as the RMSEA, comparative fit (baseline comparison as well as the Hoelter and its results output were found to be consistent with these generally accepted fit indices

Concerning ethical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeckle, F.

1991-01-01

After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

External validation of prognostic models to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in one Dutch cohort: prospective multicentre cohort study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lamain-de Ruiter, M.; Kwee, A.; Naaktgeboren, C.A.; Groot, I. de; Evers, I.M.; Groenendaal, F.; Hering, Y.R.; Huisjes, A.J.M.; Kirpestein, C.; Monincx, W.M.; Siljee, J.E.; Zelfde, A. van't; Oirschot, C.M. van; Vankan-Buitelaar, S.A.; Vonk, M.A.A.W.; Wiegers, T.A.; Zwart, J.J.; Franx, A.; Moons, K.G.M.; Koster, M.P.H.

2016-01-01

Objective: To perform an external validation and direct comparison of published prognostic models for early prediction of the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus, including predictors applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy. Design: External validation of all published prognostic models in

Review process and quality assurance in the EBR-II probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roglans, J.; Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.

1992-01-01

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II), a Department of Energy (DOE) Category A reactor, has recently been completed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). Within the scope of the ANL QA Programs, a QA Plan specifically for the EBR-II PRA was developed. The QA Plan covered all aspects of the PRA development, with emphasis on the procedures for document and software control, and the internal and external review process. The effort spent in the quality assurance tasks for the EBR-II PRA has reciprocated by providing acceptance of the work and confidence in the quality of the results

Ecological risk assessment

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

2007-01-01

Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

Auditor’s Risk Assessment of Independent Directors in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salau Abdulmalik

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to investigate the external auditor’s risk assessment of independent directors in Nigeria. The study utilized data from 94 non-financial listed companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange for the periods 2008-2013. The study used cross-sectional time-series feasible generalized least square regression, which account for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation to test the influence independent non-executive director on auditor pricing decision in Nigeria. Our result indicates that the proportion of independent non-executive director has a positive relationship with audit fees, suggesting that this class of directors is priced high by the Nigerian auditors. These findings have both policy and practical implication on corporate governance. For instance, future regulatory reforms could consider collaborative board model instead of the insistence on more independent director presence in the boardroom.

A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hechanova, A.E.

2001-01-01

The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

Caries risk assessment in children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, S

2016-01-01

PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

[Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

2012-12-01

Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

Science.gov (United States)

The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

Laboratory diagnosis of the rare anaemias: external quality assessment benefits patient care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barbara De La Salle

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Since its introduction in the 1960s, external quality assessment has developed to become an essential component of the quality management system of the diagnostic laboratory. External quality assessment provides a long term, retrospective view of laboratory performance, demonstrating the competence of the laboratory to others. The ENERCA project (the European Network for Rare and Congenital Anaemias has established a list of core laboratory tests that are used in the diagnosis of rare and congenital anaemias, which has been used as the basis for questionnaires to laboratories, to establish the use and quality assurance of diagnostic testing in the congenital and rare anaemias, and to European EQA providers for services in this key area. In general, the provision of EQA for rare and congenital anaemias is widely variable with little provision for the very rare disorders. For the more common congenital anaemias, such as the haemoglobinopathies and thalassaemias, provision is better but there is variation in aspects of the scheme design, especially the frequency of distribution. Where laboratories did not take part in EQA for individual tests, or there was no EQA available, a desire to participate was expressed in 66% (102/154 of cases. The provision of external quality assessment (EQA services for rare disorders is a challenge. For many of these conditions, the number of patients in any one member state is very small with only a few laboratories providing diagnostic testing. In these cases, the development of pan-European or cross-border EQA may be the only means by which standardisation of methods and results can be achieved. An EQA survey of 243 laboratories for performance in Hb A2 quantification showed encouraging results in that there was a clear differentiation in the results from a beta Thalassaemia carrier and an individual with no evidence of Thalassaemia; however, a bias was observed between different methods of measurement.

Development and external validation of a new PTA assessment scale

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacobs Bram

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Post-traumatic amnesia (PTA is a key symptom of traumatic brain injury (TBI. Accurate assessment of PTA is imperative in guiding clinical decision making. Our aim was to develop and externally validate a short, examiner independent and practical PTA scale, by selecting the most discriminative items from existing scales and using a three-word memory test. Methods Mild, moderate and severe TBI patients and control subjects were assessed in two separate cohorts, one for derivation and one for validation, using a questionnaire comprised of items from existing PTA scales. We tested which individual items best discriminated between TBI patients and controls, represented by sensitivity and specificity. We then created our PTA scale based on these results. This new scale was externally evaluated for its discriminative value using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC analysis and compared to existing PTA scales. Results The derivation cohort included 126 TBI patients and 31 control subjects; the validation cohort consisted of 132 patients and 30 controls. A set of seven items was eventually selected to comprise the new PTA scale: age, name of hospital, time, day of week, month, mode of transport and recall of three words. This scale demonstrated adequate discriminative values compared to existing PTA scales on three consecutive administrations in the validation cohort. Conclusion We introduce a valid, practical and examiner independent PTA scale, which is suitable for mild TBI patients at the emergency department and yet still valuable for the follow-up of more severely injured TBI patients.

Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

Modeling for operational event risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.

1997-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

The Influence of External User Interdependence of Financial Statements, Possibility of Clients Facing Financial Difficulties, and Auditor Evaluation of Management Integrity To Acceptable Audit Risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andini Sih Afsari Utami

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to analyze. Analyses the influence of external users reliance on financial statements, likelihood of financial difficulties and management integrity toward acceptable audit risk were performed with 10 public accountant office who had listed from Direktorat IAPI 2013. The sample used the “Gay” theory. The analyzed method in this research uses multiple linear. The result shown that performing external users reliance on financial statements significantly influences toward acceptable audit risk, likelihood of financial difficulties significantly influences toward acceptable audit risk, and management integrity significantly influences toward acceptable audit risk.

Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

Science.gov (United States)

Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

2005-03-01

One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

Estimation of integrated public risks for nonseismic external events affecting the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Durant, W.S.; robinette, R.J.; Kirchner, J.R.

1994-03-01

In essence, this study was envisioned as the ''combination'' of existing accident dose and risk calculations from safety analyses of individual facilities. However, because of the extended time period over which the safety analyses were prepared, calculational assumptions and methodologies differed between the analyses. The scope of this study therefore included the standardization of assumptions and calculations as necessary to insure that the analytical logic was consistent for all the facilities. Each of the nonseismic external events considered in the analyses are addressed in individual sections in this report. In Section 2, extreme straight-line winds are examined. Section 3 addresses tornadoes, and Section 4 addresses other external events [floods, other extreme weather events (lightning, hail, and extremes in temperature or precipitation), vehicle impact, accidents involving adjacent facilities, aircraft impact, and meteorite impact]. Section 5 provides a summary of the general conclusions of the report

Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birnbacher, D.

1991-01-01

Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)