WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment external

  1. N reactor external events probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baxter, J.T.

    1989-01-01

    An external events probabilistic risk assessment of the N Reactor has been completed. The methods used are those currently being proposed for external events analysis in NUREG-1150. Results are presented for the external hazards that survived preliminary screening. They are earthquake, fire, and external flood. Core damage frequencies for these hazards are shown to be comparable to those for commercial pressurized water reactors. Dominant fire sequences are described and related to 10 CFR 50, Appendix R design requirements. Potential remedial measures that reduce fire core damage risk are described including modifications to fire protection systems, procedure changes, and addition of new administrative controls. Dominant seismic sequences are described. The effect of non-safety support system dependencies on seismic risk is presented

  2. Recent developments in the external hazard risk assessment in Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    Ukrainian legislation prescribes safety analysis reports for all operating and future NPPs. Apart from main report they must include: safety analysis supplement; design basis accident analysis; beyond design basis accident analysis; probabilistic safety assessment (PSA); technical; substantiation of safety. Regulatory requirements to PSA contents cover the criteria for core damage frequency and large radioactive release frequency. Initiating events taken into account are internal events; internal hazards and external hazards. External hazards to be considered are seismic events, external fires, external floods, extreme ambient temperatures, aircraft crashes, etc. Current status of PSA development is related to operating WWER-440 and WWER-1000 NPPs and NPPs under construction. This presentation describes in detail the external hazard risk assessment for South Ukraine including methodology applied and expected future activities

  3. External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Powell, Troy C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Two risk assessment algorithms and philosophies have been augmented and combined to form a new algorit hm, the External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA), that allows for effective and statistically sound analysis of external threat sources in relation to individual attack methods . In addition to the attack method use probability and the attack method employment consequence, t he concept of defining threat sources is added to the risk assessment process. Sample data is tabulated and depicted in radar plots and bar graphs for algorithm demonstration purposes. The largest success of ExTRAA is its ability to visualize the kind of r isk posed in a given situation using the radar plot method.

  4. External event Probabilistic Risk Assessment for the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flanagan, G.F.; Johnson, D.H.; Buttemer, D.; Perla, H.F.; Chien, S.H.

    1989-01-01

    The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a high performance isotope production and research reactor which has been in operation at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) since 1965. In late 1986 the reactor was shut down as a result of discovery of unexpected neutron embrittlement of the reactor vessel. In January of 1988 a level 1 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) (excluding external events) was published as part of the response to the many reviews that followed the shutdown and for use by ORNL to prioritize action items intended to upgrade the safety of the reactor. A conservative estimate of the core damage frequency initiated by internal events for HFIR was 3.11 x 10 -4 . In June 1989 a draft external events initiated PRA was published. The dominant contributions from external events came from seismic, wind, and fires. The overall external event contribution to core damage frequency is about 50% of the internal event initiated contribution and is dominated by seismic events

  5. External hazards in reliability and risk assessment of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevenson, J.D.

    1977-01-01

    It is current practice in the design of nuclear power generating stations to protect against the effects of significant natural and man-made external hazards which can occur at the plant site in excess of those hazards normally considered for conventional facilities. This paper is meant to identify those postulated external hazards typically considered in nuclear facility design. The paper also attempts to fulfill the following four objectives: (1) Define the current state of the art in applying reliability and risk analysis to determine external hazard design requirements. (2) Provide a ready source of literature references applicable to probabilistic design for extreme loads. (3) Provide some quantitative probability assessment estimates of external hazards. (4) Develop exclusion criteria by which postulated external hazards can be eliminated as a design basis. Rigorous evaluation of the design requirements for nuclear power plant facilities based on principles of probability and risk analysis is just beginning. It is hoped these techniques will be used more extensively in the future to provide a more rational basis for developing design requirements. (orig.) [de

  6. Review of the Oconee-3 probabilistic risk assessment: external events, core damage frequency. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanan, N.A.; Ilberg, D.; Xue, D.; Youngblood, R.; Reed, J.W.; McCann, M.; Talwani, T.; Wreathall, J.; Kurth, P.D.; Bandyopadhyay, K.

    1986-03-01

    A review of the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (OPRA) was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating qualitatively and quantitatively (as much as possible) the OPRA assessment of the important sequences that are ''externally'' generated and lead to core damage. The review included a technical assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the OPRA within its stated objective and with the limited information available. Within this scope, BNL performed a detailed reevaluation of the accident sequences generated by internal floods and earthquakes and a less detailed review (in some cases a scoping review) for the accident sequences generated by fires, tornadoes, external floods, and aircraft impact. 12 refs., 24 figs., 31 tabs.

  7. Review of the Oconee-3 probabilistic risk assessment: external events, core damage frequency. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanan, N.A.; Ilberg, D.; Xue, D.

    1986-03-01

    A review of the Oconee-3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (OPRA) was conducted with the broad objective of evaluating qualitatively and quantitatively (as much as possible) the OPRA assessment of the important sequences that are ''externally'' generated and lead to core damage. The review included a technical assessment of the assumptions and methods used in the OPRA within its stated objective and with the limited information available. Within this scope, BNL performed a detailed reevaluation of the accident sequences generated by internal floods and earthquakes and a less detailed review (in some cases a scoping review) for the accident sequences generated by fires, tornadoes, external floods, and aircraft impact. 12 refs., 24 figs., 31 tabs

  8. Radiation safety assessment of cobalt 60 external beam radiotherapy using the risk-matrix method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumenigo, C; Vilaragut, J.J.; Ferro, R.; Guillen, A.; Ramirez, M.L.; Ortiz Lopez, P.; Rodriguez, M.; McDonnell, J.D.; Papadopulos, S.; Pereira, P.P.; Goncalvez, M.; Morales, J.; Larrinaga, E.; Lopez Morones, R.; Sanchez, R.; Delgado, J.M.; Sanchez, C.; Somoano, F.

    2008-01-01

    External beam radiotherapy is the only practice in which humans are placed directly in a radiation beam with the intention to deliver a very high dose. This is why safety in radiotherapy is very critical, and is a matter of interest to both radiotherapy departments and regulatory bodies. Accidental exposures have occurred throughout the world, thus showing the need for systematic safety assessments, capable to identify preventive measures and to minimize consequences of accidental exposure. Risk-matrix is a systematic approach which combines the relevant event features to assess the overall risk of each particular event. Once an event sequence is identified, questions such as how frequent the event, how severe the potential consequences and how reliable the existing safety measures are answered in a risk-matrix table. The ultimate goal is to achieve that the overall risk for events with severe consequences should always be low o very low. In the present study, the risk-matrix method has been applied to an hypothetical radiotherapy department, which could be equivalent to an upper level hospital of the Ibero American region, in terms of safety checks and preventive measures. The application of the method has identified 76 event sequences and revealed that the hypothetical radiotherapy department is sufficiently protected (low risk) against them, including 23 event sequences with severe consequences. The method has revealed that the risk of these sequences could grow to high level if certain specific preventive measures were degraded with time. This study has identified these preventive measures, thus facilitating a rational allocation of resources in regular controls to detect any loss of reliability. The method has proven to have an important practical value and is affordable at hospital level. The elaborated risk-matrix can be easily adapted to local circumstances, in terms of existing controls and safety measures. This approach can help hospitals to identify

  9. Integrated framework for the external cost assessment of nuclear power plant accident considering risk aversion: The Korean case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    Recently, the estimation of accident costs within the social costs of nuclear power plants (NPPs) has garnered substantial interest. In particular, the risk aversion behavior of the public toward an NPP accident is considered an important factor when integrating risk aversion into NPP accident cost. In this study, an integrated framework for the external cost assessment of NPP accident that measures the value of statistical life (VSL) and the relative risk aversion (RRA) coefficient for NPP accident based on an individual-level survey is proposed. To derive the willingness to pay and the RRA coefficient for NPP accident risks, a survey was conducted on a sample of 1550 individuals in Korea. The estimation obtained a mean VSL of USD 2.78 million and an RRA coefficient of 1.315. Based on the estimation results in which various cost factors were considered, a multiplication factor of 5.16 and an external cost of NPP accidents of 4.39E−03 USD-cents/kW h were estimated. This study is expected to provide insight to energy policy decision-makers on analyzing the economic validity of NPP compared to other energy sources by reflecting the estimated external cost of NPP accident into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. - Highlights: •External cost assessment framework for NPP is proposed considering risk aversion. •VSL was derived from WTP for mortality risk reduction from hypothetical NPP accident. •RRA was derived to integrate public risk aversion into external cost of NPP accident. •Individual-level survey was conducted to derive WTP and RRA for NPP accident risk. •The external cost was estimated considering the direct cost factors of NPP accident.

  10. External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion.

  11. External Cost Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Accident considering Public Risk Aversion Behavior: the Korean Case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    The conventional approach for monetary valuation of NPP accident consequence consists of calculating the expected value of various accident scenarios. However, the main criticism of the conventional approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the estimated expected value of NPP accident. Therefore, an integrated framework for the estimation of the external cost associated with an NPP accident considering the public risk aversion behavior was proposed in this study based on the constructed theoretical framework for estimating both the value of statistical life (VSL) and the risk aversion coefficient associated with an NPP accident to take account of the accident cost into the unit electricity generation cost of NPP. To estimate both parameters, an individual-level survey was conducted on a sample of 1,364 participants in Korea. Based on the collected survey responses, both parameters were estimated based on the proposed framework and the external cost of NPP accident was estimated based on the consequence analysis and considering the direct cost factors for NPP accident. Internalization of external costs into the comprehensive energy production cost has been considered as a potentially efficient policy instrument for a more sustainable energy supply and use. However, the internalization of externalities, such as public health damage, have raised a number of generic policy issues in a nuclear energy sector, with specific challenges resulting from the distinct characteristics of external cost estimation. Especially, the major challenge remained to address the public safety concerns regarding a nuclear accident, which can be specified as low-probability high-consequence accident, driven by the aspects of public risk aversion

  12. Mercury risk assessment combining internal and external exposure methods for a population living near a municipal solid waste incinerator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chunyan; Xie, Han; Ye, Xuejie; Zhang, Haoran; Liu, Maodian; Tong, Yindong; Ou, Langbo; Yuan, Wen; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Xuejun

    2016-12-01

    Risk assessments for human health have been conducted for municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) in many western countries, whereas only a few risk assessments have been performed for MSWIs in developing countries such as China where the use of waste incineration is increasing rapidly. To assess the mercury exposure risks of a population living near the largest MSWI in South China, we combined internal exposure and external exposure assessment with an individual-specific questionnaire. The mercury concentrations in air, soil, and locally collected food around the MSWI were assessed. The total mercury (T-Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) of 447 blood samples from a control group, residential exposure group, and MSWI workers were measured. The internal and external exposures of the subject population were analyzed. Significant difference in MeHg concentrations was observed between the control group and the exposed group, between the control group and the MSWI workers, and between the exposed group and the MSWI workers (median levels: 0.70 μg/L, 0.81 μg/L, and 1.02 μg/L for the control group, exposed group, and MSWI workers, respectively). The MeHg/T-Hg ratio was 0.51 ± 0.19, 0.59 ± 0.17 and 0.58 ± 0.25, respectively. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that MeHg concentrations were positively correlated with the gaseous mercury in the air. Combining internal and external exposure assessment showed that the direct contribution of MSWI emissions was minor compared with the dietary contribution. The external and internal exposures were well matched with each other. This study also suggested that an integrated method combining internal and external exposure assessment with an individual-specific questionnaire is feasible to assess the risks for a population living near a MSWI. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. 76 FR 67439 - External Peer Review Meeting for Draft Microbial Risk Assessment Guideline: Pathogenic...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-01

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [EPA-HQ-ORD-2011-053; FRL-9485-1] External Peer Review Meeting for... review draft does not represent EPA policy. The public may register to attend this peer review meeting as... to consider the comments from the external peer review meeting, along with public comments received...

  14. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  15. The Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) in patients treated with external beam radiation therapy: Evaluation and optimization in patients at higher risk of relapse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halverson, Schuyler; Schipper, Matthew; Blas, Kevin; Lee, Vivien; Sabolch, Aaron; Olson, Karin; Sandler, Howard M.; Feng, Felix Y.; Hamstra, Daniel A.

    2011-01-01

    Background: The Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) was developed to predict freedom from biochemical failure (FFBF) following radical prostatectomy (RP). Its utility following external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) has not been externally evaluated. Methods: A retrospective study of 612 patients treated with dose-escalated EBRT at University of Michigan Medical Center. Results: Compared to the derivation cohort, EBRT treated patients had higher-risk disease (28% with CAPRA of 6–10 vs. 5%, respectively). A total of 114 patients (19%) had BF with 5-year BF ranging from 7% with CAPRA 0–3 to 35% with CAPRA 7–10. For RT patients the risk of BF at 5-year was similar to 4 surgical cohorts for CAPRA scores 0–2 but lower for all CAPRA scores ⩾ 3. The difference favoring RT increased with increasing CAPRA score reaching a 27–50% absolute improved at 5-years for CAPRA scores of 6–10. On multivariate analysis each CAPRA point increased the risk of BF (p < 0.0001) while Gleason pattern 5 in the biopsy also increased BF (p = 0.01) and long-term androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) significantly reduced the risk of BF (p = 0.015). Conclusions: Compared to surgical series the risk of BF was lower with dose-escalated EBRT with the greatest difference at the highest CAPRA scores.

  16. 76 FR 44586 - Notice of Availability of the External Review Draft of the Microbial Risk Assessment Guideline...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-26

    ... assessments will foster better interaction among participating agencies leading to a more efficient and... document addresses the full range of microbial risk assessment topics: Definition of the roles and...

  17. Pipeline integrity management: integration of geotechnical and mechanical assessment to control potential risks due to external forces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malpartida Moya, John E.; Sota, Giancarlo Massucco de la; Seri, Walter [Compania Operadora de Gas del Amazonas, Lima (Peru)

    2009-07-01

    Every pipeline integrity management system evaluates and controls various threats. On pipelines which have particular characteristics as it is the case of the Andean pipelines and pipelines crossing jungles, one of the main threats are the external forces. Even, this threat causes a greater number of failures than other threats like corrosion or the third part damage. Facing this situation, the pipeline integrity management system of TgP has achieved an important development in the use and suitable handling of the information provided by diverse techniques of pipeline mechanical inspection and geotechnical inspection of the right-of-way (ROW). This document presents our methodology, which interrelate information of the in-line inspection, information of geotechnical inspections of the ROW, instrumentation (Strain Gages), topographic monitoring, among others. All this information is supported in a Geographic Information System (GIS) which allows us to integrate the information. By means of the pipeline integrity management system we control potential risks due to external forces, we have been able to act before events become critical, with no occurrence of failures. This system allows us simultaneously to optimize efforts and preserve the mechanical integrity of our pipelines, not producing neither personal nor environmental nor economical affectation. (author)

  18. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  19. Assessment of Cheating Behavior in Young School-Age Children: Distinguishing Normative Behaviors From Risk Markers of Externalizing Psychopathology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callender, Kevin A.; Olson, Sheryl L.; Kerr, David C. R.; Sameroff, Arnold J.

    2014-01-01

    The central goal of this longitudinal study was to develop a laboratory-based index of children’s covert cheating behavior that distinguished normative rule violations from those that signal risk for antisocial behavior. Participants (N = 215 children) were drawn from a community population and oversampled for externalizing behavior problems (EXT). Cheating behavior was measured using two resistance-to-temptation tasks and coded for extent of cheating, latency to cheat, and inappropriate positive affect. Mothers rated internalized conduct and three forms of self-regulation: inhibitory control, impulsivity, and affective distress. Mothers and teachers reported EXT concurrently (T1) and 4 years later, when children averaged 10 years of age (T2). Children categorized as severe cheaters manifested lower inhibitory control, greater impulsivity, and lower levels of internalized conduct at T1. Children in this group also manifested higher levels of EXT in home and school settings at T1 and more EXT in the school setting at T2, even after accounting for T1 ratings. PMID:21058125

  20. Risk analysis of external radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvidsson, Marcus

    2011-09-01

    External radiation therapy is carried out via a complex treatment process in which many different groups of staff work together. Much of the work is dependent on and in collaboration with advanced technical equipment. The purpose of the research task has been to identify a process for external radiation therapy and to identify, test and analyze a suitable method for performing risk analysis of external radiation therapy

  1. Development of risk assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors. (3) Numerical simulations of forest fire spread and smoke transport as an external hazard assessment methodology development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okano, Yasushi; Yamano, Hidemasa

    2015-01-01

    As a part of a development of the risk assessment methodologies against external hazards, a new methodology to assess forest fire hazards is being developed. Frequency and consequence of the forest fire are analyzed to obtain the hazard intensity curve and then Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment is performed to obtain the conditional core damage probability due to the challenges by the forest fire. 'Heat', 'flame', 'smoke' and 'flying object' are the challenges to a nuclear power plant. For a sodium-cooled fast reactor, a decay heat removal under accident conditions is operated with an ultimate heat sink of air, then, the challenge by 'smoke' will potentially be on the air filter of the system. In this paper, numerical simulations of forest fire propagation and smoke transport were performed with sensibility studies to weather conditions, and the effect by the smoke on the air filter was quantitatively evaluated. Forest fire propagation simulations were performed using FARSITE code. A temporal increase of a forest fire spread area and a position of the frontal fireline are obtained by the simulation, and 'reaction intensity' and 'frontal fireline intensity' as the indexes of 'heat' are obtained as well. The boundary of the fire spread area is shaped like an ellipse on the terrain, and the boundary length is increased with time and fire spread. The sensibility analyses on weather conditions of wind, temperature, and humidity were performed, and it was summarized that 'forest fire spread rate' and 'frontal fireline intensity' depend much on wind speed and humidity. Smoke transport simulations were performed by ALOFT-FT code where three-dimensional spatial distribution of smoke density, especially of particle matters of PM2.5 and PM10, are evaluated. The snapshot outputs, namely 'reaction intensity' and 'position of frontal fireline', from the sensibility studies of the FARSITE were directly utilized as the input data for ALOFT-FT, whereas it is assumed that the

  2. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  3. Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

  4. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  5. Combining Teacher Assessment Scores with External Examination ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Combining Teacher Assessment Scores with External Examination Scores for Certification: Comparative Study of Four Statistical Models. ... University entrance examination scores in mathematics were obtained for a subsample of 115 ...

  6. External risk factors affecting construction costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mubarak, Husin, Saiful; Oktaviati, Mutia

    2017-11-01

    Some risk factors can have impacts on the cost, time, and performance. Results of previous studies indicated that the external conditions are among the factors which give effect to the contractor in the completion of the project. The analysis in the study carried out by considering the conditions of the project in the last 15 years in Aceh province, divided into military conflict phase (2000-2004), post tsunami disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction phase (2005-2009), and post-rehabilitation and reconstruction phase (2010-present). This study intended to analyze the impact of external risk factors, primarily related to the impact on project costs and to investigate the influence of the risk factors and construction phases impacted the project cost. Data was collected by using a questionnaire distributed in 15 large companies qualification contractors in Aceh province. Factors analyzed consisted of socio-political, government policies, natural disasters, and monetary conditions. Data were analyzed using statistical application of severity index to measure the level of risk impact. The analysis results presented the tendency of impact on cost can generally be classified as low. There is only one variable classified as high-impact, variable `fuel price increases', which appear on the military conflict and post tsunami disaster rehabilitation and reconstruction periods. The risk impact on costs from the factors and variables classified with high intensity needs a serious attention, especially when the high level impact is followed by the high frequency of occurrences.

  7. A study of risk evaluation methodology selection for the external hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuramoto, Takahiro; Yamaguchi, Akira; Narumiya, Yosiyuki

    2014-01-01

    Since the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, there has been growing demands for assessing the effects of external hazards, including natural events, such as earthquake and tsunami, and external human behaviors, and taking actions to address those external hazards. The newly established Japanese regulatory requirements claim design considerations associated with external hazards. The primary objective of the risk assessment for external hazards is to establish countermeasures against such hazards rather than grasping the risk figures. Therefore, applying detailed risk assessment methods, such as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), to all the external hazards is not always the most appropriate. Risk assessment methods can vary in types including qualitative evaluation, hazard analysis (analyzing hazard frequencies or their influence), and margin assessment. To resolve these issues, a process has been established that enables us to identify the external hazards in a comprehensive and systematic manner, which have potential risks leading to core damage and to select an appropriate evaluation method according to the risks associated with each of the external hazards. This paper discusses the comprehensive and systematic identification process for the external hazards which have potential risks leading to core damage, and the approaches of selecting an appropriate evaluation method for each external hazard. This paper also describes some applications of specific risk evaluation methods. (author)

  8. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  9. Patient safety in external beam radiotherapy, results of the ACCIRAD project: Current status of proactive risk assessment, reactive analysis of events, and reporting and learning systems in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malicki, Julian; Bly, Ritva; Bulot, Mireille; Godet, Jean-Luc; Jahnen, Andreas; Krengli, Marco; Maingon, Philippe; Prieto Martin, Carlos; Przybylska, Kamila; Skrobała, Agnieszka; Valero, Marc; Jarvinen, Hannu

    2017-04-01

    To describe the current status of implementation of European directives for risk management in radiotherapy and to assess variability in risk management in the following areas: 1) in-country regulatory framework; 2) proactive risk assessment; (3) reactive analysis of events; and (4) reporting and learning systems. The original data were collected as part of the ACCIRAD project through two online surveys. Risk assessment criteria are closely associated with quality assurance programs. Only 9/32 responding countries (28%) with national regulations reported clear "requirements" for proactive risk assessment and/or reactive risk analysis, with wide variability in assessment methods. Reporting of adverse error events is mandatory in most (70%) but not all surveyed countries. Most European countries have taken steps to implement European directives designed to reduce the probability and magnitude of accidents in radiotherapy. Variability between countries is substantial in terms of legal frameworks, tools used to conduct proactive risk assessment and reactive analysis of events, and in the reporting and learning systems utilized. These findings underscore the need for greater harmonisation in common terminology, classification and reporting practices across Europe to improve patient safety and to enable more reliable inter-country comparisons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Assessment of external dose indoors in Lithuania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pilkyte, L.; Butkus, D.; Morkunas, G.

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this paper was an assessment of external exposure indoors and its dependence on construction materials and indoor radon concentrations in Lithuanian living houses. Relationship of absorbed dose rate in air indoors and activity indexes of the most commonly used construction materials (wood, concrete and bricks) have been studied using results received in measurements done in >4700 rooms in 1995-2005. Possible connections of dose rate indoors with indoor radon concentrations are also discussed. Findings of this study helped to make an assessment of the mean value of effective dose of Lithuanian population due to external exposure indoors which is equal to 0.58 mSv y -1 . The received data might also be used in improvement of quality of personal dosimetric measurements done in premises constructed of different construction materials. (authors)

  11. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  12. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  13. The Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score predicts biochemical recurrence in intermediate-risk prostate cancer treated with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) dose escalation or low-dose rate (LDR) brachytherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, Vimal; Delouya, Guila; Bahary, Jean-Paul; Larrivée, Sandra; Taussky, Daniel

    2014-12-01

    To study the prognostic value of the University of California, San Francisco Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score to predict biochemical failure (bF) after various doses of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and/or permanent seed low-dose rate (LDR) prostate brachytherapy (PB). We retrospectively analysed 345 patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer, with PSA levels of 10-20 ng/mL and/or Gleason 7 including 244 EBRT patients (70.2-79.2 Gy) and 101 patients treated with LDR PB. The minimum follow-up was 3 years. No patient received primary androgen-deprivation therapy. bF was defined according to the Phoenix definition. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the differences between CAPRA groups. The overall bF rate was 13% (45/345). The CAPRA score, as a continuous variable, was statistically significant in multivariate analysis for predicting bF (hazard ratio [HR] 1.37, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-1.72, P = 0.006). There was a trend for a lower bF rate in patients treated with LDR PB when compared with those treated by EBRT ≤ 74 Gy (HR 0.234, 95% CI 0.05-1.03, P = 0.055) in multivariate analysis. In the subgroup of patients with a CAPRA score of 3-5, CAPRA remained predictive of bF as a continuous variable (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.01-2.27, P = 0.047) in multivariate analysis. The CAPRA score is useful for predicting biochemical recurrence in patients treated for intermediate-risk prostate cancer with EBRT or LDR PB. It could help in treatment decisions. © 2013 The Authors. BJU International © 2013 BJU International.

  14. Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents : familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buschgens, Cathelijne J. M.; van Aken, Marcel A. G.; Swinkels, Sophie H. N.; Ormel, Johan; Verhulst, Frank C.; Buitelaar, Jan K.

    The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large

  15. Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buschgens, C.J.M.; Aken, M.A.G. van; Swinkels, S.H.N.; Ormel, J.; Verhulst, F.C.; Buitelaar, J.K.

    2010-01-01

    The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large

  16. Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buschgens, C.J.M.; van Aken, M.A.G.; Swinkels, S.H.N.; Ormel, J.; Verhulst, F.C.; Buitelaar, J.K.

    2010-01-01

    The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large

  17. Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: Familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.J.M. Buschgens (Cathelijne); M.A.G. van Aken (Marcel); S.H.N. Swinkels (Sophie); J. Ormel (Johan Hans); F.C. Verhulst (Frank); J.K. Buitelaar (Jan)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in

  18. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  19. Maternal medical risks during pregnancy and childhood externalizing behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Dylan B; Vaughn, Michael G

    2018-04-25

    Research has indicated that maternal health during the prenatal period and at delivery carries far reaching significance for the development of offspring. Even so, the role of the accumulation of maternal medical risks during pregnancy in the development of externalizing behavior during childhood has generally been overlooked. The present study investigates whether the accumulation of maternal medical risks during the prenatal period is positively associated with childhood externalizing behavior, and whether this association is stronger among male offspring. We examined a large, nationally representative sample of children who participated in the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (ECLS-B). Information concerning maternal medical history, including the presence of a number of medical risks during pregnancy, was obtained through hospital records. A subsample of children with both parent and teacher reports of externalizing behavior during kindergarten was employed in the present study. A greater number of maternal medical risks during pregnancy increased the odds of childhood externalizing behavior across settings, but only among male offspring. The predicted probability of persistent externalizing behavior among males increased from .084 in the absence of maternal medical risks during pregnancy to .241 in the presence of three or more maternal medical risks during pregnancy. Our findings suggest that maternal medical risks during the prenatal period can have far-reaching consequences for the behavioral development of male offspring. Treatment of medical risks among expectant mothers may have the added benefit of reducing the likelihood of childhood externalizing behavior among male progeny. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  1. Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Abstract The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10?12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large prospective population-based cohort study in the Netherlands (N = 2,230). Regression analyses were used to determine the relative contribution of FR-EXT and perceived parenting s...

  2. Development of risk assessment methodology against natural external hazards for sodium-cooled fast reactors: project overview and strong Wind PRA methodology - 15031

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamano, H.; Nishino, H.; Kurisaka, K.; Okano, Y.; Sakai, T.; Yamamoto, T.; Ishizuka, Y.; Geshi, N.; Furukawa, R.; Nanayama, F.; Takata, T.; Azuma, E.

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes mainly strong wind probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology development in addition to the project overview. In this project, to date, the PRA methodologies against snow, tornado and strong wind were developed as well as the hazard evaluation methodologies. For the volcanic eruption hazard, ash fallout simulation was carried out to contribute to the development of the hazard evaluation methodology. For the forest fire hazard, the concept of the hazard evaluation methodology was developed based on fire simulation. Event sequence assessment methodology was also developed based on plant dynamics analysis coupled with continuous Markov chain Monte Carlo method in order to apply to the event sequence against snow. In developing the strong wind PRA methodology, hazard curves were estimated by using Weibull and Gumbel distributions based on weather data recorded in Japan. The obtained hazard curves were divided into five discrete categories for event tree quantification. Next, failure probabilities for decay heat removal related components were calculated as a product of two probabilities: i.e., a probability for the missiles to enter the intake or out-take in the decay heat removal system, and fragility caused by the missile impacts. Finally, based on the event tree, the core damage frequency was estimated about 6*10 -9 /year by multiplying the discrete hazard probabilities in the Gumbel distribution by the conditional decay heat removal failure probabilities. A dominant sequence was led by the assumption that the operators could not extinguish fuel tank fire caused by the missile impacts and the fire induced loss of the decay heat removal system. (authors)

  3. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  4. Life cycle assessment of waste management systems: Assessing technical externalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brogaard, Line Kai-Sørensen

    The life cycle assessment (LCA) of a waste management system relies on many internal characteristics such as pollution control systems and recovery efficiencies. It also relies on technical externalities supporting the waste management system in terms of capital goods and energy and material...... for the primary and secondary production of materials, 366 datasets were gathered. The materials in focus were: paper, newsprint, cardboard, corrugated board, glass, aluminium, steel and plastics (HDPE, LDPE, LLDPE, PET, PS, PVC). Only one quarter of these data concerned secondary production, thus underlining...

  5. Overview of the probabilistic risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The techniques of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are applicable to Department of Energy facilities. The background and techniques of PRA are given with special attention to seismic, wind and flooding external events. A specific application to seismic events is provided to demonstrate the method. However, the PRA framework is applicable also to wind and external flooding. 3 references, 8 figures, 1 table

  6. Health-related external cost assessment in Europe: methodological developments from ExternE to the 2013 Clean Air Policy Package.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Kamp, Jonathan; Bachmann, Till M

    2015-03-03

    "Getting the prices right" through internalizing external costs is a guiding principle of environmental policy making, one recent example being the EU Clean Air Policy Package released at the end of 2013. It is supported by impact assessments, including monetary valuation of environmental and health damages. For over 20 years, related methodologies have been developed in Europe in the Externalities of Energy (ExternE) project series and follow-up activities. In this study, we aim at analyzing the main methodological developments over time from the 1990s until today with a focus on classical air pollution-induced human health damage costs. An up-to-date assessment including the latest European recommendations is also applied. Using a case from the energy sector, we identify major influencing parameters: differences in exposure modeling and related data lead to variations in damage costs of up to 21%; concerning risk assessment and monetary valuation, differences in assessing long-term exposure mortality risks together with assumptions on particle toxicity explain most of the observed changes in damage costs. These still debated influencing parameters deserve particular attention when damage costs are used to support environmental policy making.

  7. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  8. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  9. EXTERNAL VALIDATION OF THE DIABETES EARLY READMISSION RISK INDICATOR (DERRI™).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Daniel J; Recco, Dominic; Turchin, Alexander; Zhao, Huaqing; Golden, Sherita Hill

    2018-04-06

    The Diabetes Early Readmission Risk Indicator (DERRI ™ ) was previously developed and internally validated as a tool to predict the risk of all-cause readmission within 30 days of discharge (30-d readmission) of hospitalized patients with diabetes. In this study, the predictive performance of the DERRI ™ with and without additional predictors was assessed in an external sample. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with diabetes discharged from 2 academic medical centers between 1/1/2000 and 12/31/2014. We applied the previously developed DERRI ™ , which includes admission laboratory results, sociodemographics, a diagnosis of certain comorbidities, and recent discharge information, and evaluated the effect of adding metabolic indicators on predictive performance using multivariable logistic regression. Total cholesterol and A1c were selected based on clinical relevance and univariate association with 30-d readmission. Among 105,974 discharges, 19,032 (18.0%) were followed by 30-d readmission for any cause. The DERRI ™ had a C-statistic of 0.634 for 30-d readmission. Total cholesterol (TC) was the lipid parameter most strongly associated with 30-d readmission. The DERRI ™ predictors, A1c, and TC were significantly associated with 30-d readmission; however, their addition to the DERRI ™ did not significantly change model performance (C-statistic 0.643 [95% CI, 0.638-0.647], p=0.92). Performance of the DERRI ™ in this external cohort was modest but comparable to other readmission prediction models. Addition of A1c and TC to the DERRI ™ did not significantly improve performance. Although the DERRI ™ may be useful to direct resources toward diabetes patients at higher risk, better prediction is needed. DERRI = Diabetes Early Readmission Risk Indicator; TC = Total cholesterol; A1c = hemoglobin A1c; HDL-C = high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; LDL-C = low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; DKA = diabetic ketoacidosis; HHS

  10. External dose assessment in the Ukraine following the Chernobyl accident

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Remi Jordan Lesartre

    While the physiological effects of radiation exposure have been well characterized in general, it remains unclear what the relationship is between large-scale radiological events and psychosocial behavior outcomes in individuals or populations. To investigate this, the National Science Foundation funded a research project in 2008 at the University of Colorado in collaboration with Colorado State University to expand the knowledge of complex interactions between radiation exposure, perception of risk, and psychosocial behavior outcomes by modeling outcomes for a representative sample of the population of the Ukraine which had been exposed to radiocontaminant materials released by the reactor accident at Chernobyl on 26 April 1986. In service of this project, a methodology (based substantially on previously published models specific to the Chernobyl disaster and the Ukrainian population) was developed for daily cumulative effective external dose and dose rate assessment for individuals in the Ukraine for as a result of the Chernobyl disaster. A software platform was designed and produced to estimate effective external dose and dose rate for individuals based on their age, occupation, and location of residence on each day between 26 April 1986 and 31 December 2009. A methodology was developed to transform published 137Cs soil deposition contour maps from the Comprehensive Atlas of Caesium Deposition on Europe after the Chernobyl Accident into a geospatial database to access these data as a radiological source term. Cumulative effective external dose and dose rate were computed for each individual in a 703-member cohort of Ukrainians randomly selected to be representative of the population of the country as a whole. Error was estimated for the resulting individual dose and dose rate values with Monte Carlo simulations. Distributions of input parameters for the dose assessment methodology were compared to computed dose and dose rate estimates to determine which

  11. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  12. Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

    1992-07-01

    In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as a three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC's PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described

  13. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  14. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  15. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  16. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  17. Externalizing behaviors in preadolescents: familial risk to externalizing behaviors and perceived parenting styles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buschgens, Cathelijne J M; van Aken, Marcel A G; Swinkels, Sophie H N; Ormel, Johan; Verhulst, Frank C; Buitelaar, Jan K

    2010-07-01

    The aim was to investigate the contribution of familial risk to externalizing behaviors (FR-EXT), perceived parenting styles, and their interactions to the prediction of externalizing behaviors in preadolescents. Participants were preadolescents aged 10-12 years who participated in TRAILS, a large prospective population-based cohort study in the Netherlands (N = 2,230). Regression analyses were used to determine the relative contribution of FR-EXT and perceived parenting styles to parent and teacher ratings of externalizing behaviors. FR-EXT was based on lifetime parental externalizing psychopathology and the different parenting styles (emotional warmth, rejection, and overprotection) were based on the child's perspective. We also investigated whether different dimensions of perceived parenting styles had different effects on subdomains of externalizing behavior. We found main effects for FR-EXT (vs. no FR-EXT), emotional warmth, rejection, and overprotection that were fairly consistent across rater and outcome measures. More specific, emotional warmth was the most consistent predictor of all outcome measures, and rejection was a stronger predictor of aggression and delinquency than of inattention. Interaction effects were found for FR-EXT and perceived parental rejection and overprotection; other interactions between FR-EXT and parenting styles were not significant. Correlations between FR-EXT and perceived parenting styles were absent or very low and were without clinical significance. Predominantly main effects of FR-EXT and perceived parenting styles independently contribute to externalizing behaviors in preadolescents, suggesting FR-EXT and parenting styles to be two separate areas of causality. The relative lack of gene-environment interactions may be due to the epidemiological nature of the study, the preadolescent age of the subjects, the measurement level of parenting and the measurement level of FR-EXT, which might be a consequence of both genetic and

  18. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  19. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  20. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  1. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  2. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  3. External cephalic version-related risks: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grootscholten, Kim; Kok, Marjolein; Oei, S Guid; Mol, Ben W J; van der Post, Joris A

    2008-11-01

    To systematically review the literature on external cephalic version-related complications and to assess if the outcome of a version attempt is related to complications. In March 2007 we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Studies reporting on complications from an external cephalic version attempt for singleton breech pregnancies after 36 weeks of pregnancy were selected. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) from studies that reported both on complications as well as on the position of the fetus immediately after the procedure. We found 84 studies, reporting on 12,955 version attempts that reported on external cephalic version-related complications. The pooled complication rate was 6.1% (95% CI 4.7-7.8), 0.24% for serious complications (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.17-0.34) and 0.35% for emergency cesarean deliveries (95% CI 0.26-0.47). Complications were not related to external cephalic version outcome (OR 1.2 (95% CI 0.93-1.7). External cephalic version is a safe procedure. Complications are not related to the fetal position after external cephalic version.

  4. External cephalic version-related risks: a meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grootscholten, K.; Kok, M.; Oei, S.G.; Mol, B.W.J.; Post, van der J.A.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the literature on external cephalic version–related complications and to assess if the outcome of a version attempt is related to complications. DATA SOURCES: In March 2007 we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials.

  5. External Cephalic Version-Related Risks A Meta-analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grootscholten, Kim; Kok, Marjolein; Oei, S. Guid; Mol, Ben W. J.; van der Post, Joris A.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To systematically review the literature on external cephalic version-related complications and to assess if the outcome of a version attempt is related to complications. DATA SOURCES: In March 2007 we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials.

  6. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  7. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  8. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  9. External quality assessments for microbiologic diagnosis of diphtheria in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Both, Leonard; Neal, Shona; De Zoysa, Aruni; Mann, Ginder; Czumbel, Ida; Efstratiou, Androulla

    2014-12-01

    The European Diphtheria Surveillance Network (EDSN) ensures the reliable epidemiological and microbiologic assessment of disease prevalence in the European Union. Here, we describe a survey of current diagnostic techniques for diphtheria surveillance conducted across the European Union and report the results from three external quality assessment (EQA) schemes performed between 2010 and 2014. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  10. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  11. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  12. Prediction of prostate cancer in unscreened men: external validation of a risk calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vugt, Heidi A; Roobol, Monique J; Kranse, Ries; Määttänen, Liisa; Finne, Patrik; Hugosson, Jonas; Bangma, Chris H; Schröder, Fritz H; Steyerberg, Ewout W

    2011-04-01

    Prediction models need external validation to assess their value beyond the setting where the model was derived from. To assess the external validity of the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator (www.prostatecancer-riskcalculator.com) for the probability of having a positive prostate biopsy (P(posb)). The ERSPC risk calculator was based on data of the initial screening round of the ERSPC section Rotterdam and validated in 1825 and 531 men biopsied at the initial screening round in the Finnish and Swedish sections of the ERSPC respectively. P(posb) was calculated using serum prostate specific antigen (PSA), outcome of digital rectal examination (DRE), transrectal ultrasound and ultrasound assessed prostate volume. The external validity was assessed for the presence of cancer at biopsy by calibration (agreement between observed and predicted outcomes), discrimination (separation of those with and without cancer), and decision curves (for clinical usefulness). Prostate cancer was detected in 469 men (26%) of the Finnish cohort and in 124 men (23%) of the Swedish cohort. Systematic miscalibration was present in both cohorts (mean predicted probability 34% versus 26% observed, and 29% versus 23% observed, both pscreened men, but overestimated the risk of a positive biopsy. Further research is necessary to assess the performance and applicability of the ERSPC risk calculator when a clinical setting is considered rather than a screening setting. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Pipeline external corrosion direct assessment methodology: lessons learned - part 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kowalski, Angel R. [DNV Columbus, Inc., OH (United States)

    2009-07-01

    DNV Columbus (Former CC Technologies) played a key role in the development of Direct Assessment (DA) methodologies, providing leadership in the NACE technical committees charged with development of DA standards. Since the first publication of NACE Standard RP-0502-2002, External Corrosion Direct Assessment (ECDA) has been successfully applied over a great number of pipelines to evaluate the impact of external corrosion on the pipeline integrity. This paper summarizes the results of applying ECDA over a selected number of underground pipelines and presents interesting facts about the methodology. (author)

  14. The Externe project. Assessment of the external costs of the natural gas fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holland, M.R.

    1997-01-01

    A detailed bottom-up methodology for assessment of the external costs of energy has been developed by a multi-disciplinary, pan-European team as part of the European Commissions's JOULE Programme. The consequences of the generation of electricity from fossil, nuclear and renewable technologies, in terms of damages to human health, buildings and the wider environment, have been assessed within a consistent framework. The potential application of the results in cost-benefit analysis, power system optimisation, emissions charging, etc. is also now under investigation. The analysis starts with definition of the fuel cycle, and specification of the technologies and locations to be considered. Results to date show that for typical modern examples of power plants burning different fossil fuels, externalities (including possible global warming effects) are lowest for gas-burning plant. (R.P.)

  15. Assessment of environmental external effects in the production of energy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schleisner, L.; Meyer, H.J.; Morthorst, P.E.

    1995-01-01

    A project in Denmark has been carried out with the purpose to assess the environmental damages and the external costs in the production of energy. The energy production technologies that will be reported in this paper are wind power and a conventional coal fired plant. In the project the environm......A project in Denmark has been carried out with the purpose to assess the environmental damages and the external costs in the production of energy. The energy production technologies that will be reported in this paper are wind power and a conventional coal fired plant. In the project...... the environmental damages for the energy production technologies are compared, and externalities in the production of energy using renewable energy and fossil fuels are identified, estimated and monetized....

  16. STUDENTS’ COMMUNICATION SKILLS ASSESSMENT BY EXTERNAL LECTURERS AND INDUSTRY REPRESENTATIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NOORFAZILA KAMAL

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Soft skills, especially communication skills, are important skills which each graduate must possess. Accordingly, several courses and approaches have been carried out in universities to train students in communication skills. The skills are normally evaluated by course lecturers. However, assessments by a third party from outside the university are valuable so that the students’ ahievements may be weighed against external evaluators’ point of views. In the Department of Electrical, Electronic and Systems Engineering (DEESE, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM, communication skills assessment by external lecturers and industry representatives are performed on Hari Poster JKEES, where students present their final year project poster. There are two categories of evaluation, namely project and communication skills. The project evaluation covers content, result and impact, while communication skills evaluation covers poster layout and design, and delivery. This study only analyse the students’ communication skills achievement. The participants of this study consists of 109 final year students from two batches, of which 51 students are from year 2014 and the other 58 students from year 2015. The results show that for the year 2014 students, the mean mark given by external lecturers in layout and design category is 6.7, while the mean mark from industry evaluators is 6.5. For the 2015 batch, the mean mark in the layout and design category is 6.3 from external lecturers and 5.9 from industry evaluators. In the delivery category, the mean marks for the 2014 batch are 7.1 and 6.6 from external lecturers and industry evaluators, espectively. Meanwhile, for the 2015 batch, the mean marks by external lecturers and industry evaluators are 6.3 and 5.8, respectively. The results show that both external lecturers and industry representatives judged DEESE students’ communication skills to be good.

  17. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  18. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  19. Development and external validation of a new PTA assessment scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacobs, B.; van Ekert, J.; Vernooy, L.P.; Dieperink, P.; Andriessen, T.M.J.C.; Hendriks, M.P.; van Vugt, A.B.; Emons, M.A.; Borm, G.F.; Vos, P.E.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Post-traumatic amnesia (PTA) is a key symptom of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Accurate assessment of PTA is imperative in guiding clinical decision making. Our aim was to develop and externally validate a short, examiner independent and practical PTA scale, by selecting the most

  20. Assessment of patient radiation protection in external radiotherapy departments after inspections performed by the ASN 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franchi, Vincent; Marchal, Carole

    2009-10-01

    This report proposes an assessment of patient radiation protection in external radiotherapy. It is based on inter-regional syntheses of inspections performed by the ASN in external radiotherapy departments during 2008. It addresses 6 main themes related to patient radiation protection: human and material resources, organisation of medical physics, training in patient radiation protection, mastering of equipment (maintenance, internal quality controls of medical devices), safety and care quality management (formalization of the patient care process and definition of responsibilities, patient identity control, treatment preparation, and treatment execution), and risk management (a priori risk analysis, declaration, recording and internal processing of dysfunctions, improvements of care quality and safety management system)

  1. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  2. Risk variables of external apical root resorption during orthodontic treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Carolina Feio Barroso

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: External apical root resorption (EARR is an adverse outcome of the orthodontic treatment. So far, no single or associated factor has been identified as responsible for EARR due to tooth movement. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated the association of risk variables (age, gender, extraction for orthodontic treatment and Angle classification with EARR and orthodontic treatment. METHOD: The sample (n=72 was divided into two groups according to presence (n=32 or absence (n=40 of EARR in maxillary central and lateral incisors after orthodontic treatment. RESULTS: There were no statistically significant differences in EARR according to age, gender, extraction or type of malocclusion (p>0.05. CONCLUSION: The risk variables examined were not associated with EARR in the study population.

  3. The assessment of personal dose due to external radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boas, J.F.; Young, J.G.

    1990-01-01

    The fundamental basis of thermoluminescent dosimetry (TLD) is discussed and a number of considerations in the measurement of thermoluminescence described, with particular reference to CaSO 4 :Dy. The steps taken to convert a thermoluminescence measurement to an exposure and then an absorbed dose are outlined. The calculation of effective dose equivalents due to external exposure to γ-radiation in a number of situations commonly encountered in a uranium mine is discussed. Factors which may affect the accuracy of external dose assessments are described

  4. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  5. Review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Davis, P.R.; Satterwhite, D.G.; Gilmore, W.E.; Gregg, R.E.

    1989-11-01

    A review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant probabilistic risk Assessment was conducted with the objective of confirming the safety perspectives brought to light by the probabilistic risk assessment. The scope of the review included the entire Level I probabilistic risk assessment including external events. This is consistent with the scope of the probabilistic risk assessment. The review included an assessment of the assumptions, methods, models, and data used in the study. 47 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs

  6. Assessment of environmental external effects in power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, H.; Morthorst, P.E.; Schleisner, L.; Meyer, N.I.; Nielsen, P.S.; Nielsen, V.

    1996-12-01

    This report summarises some of the results achieved in a project carried out in Denmark in 1994 concerning externalities. The main objective was to identify, quantify and - if possible - monetize the external effects in the production of energy, especially in relation to renewable technologies. The report compares environmental externalities in the production of energy using renewable and non-renewable energy sources, respectively. The comparison is demonstrated on two specific case studies. The first case is the production of electricity based on wind power plants compared to the production of electricity based on a coal-fired conventional plant. In the second case heat/power generation by means of a combined heat and power plant based on biomass-generated gas is compared to that of a combined heat and power plant fuelled by natural gas. In the report the individual externalities from the different ways of producing energy are identified, the stress caused by the effect is assessed, and finally the monetary value of the damage is estimated. The method is applied to the local as well as the regional and global externalities. (au) 8 tabs., 7 ills., 4 refs

  7. Assessment of environmental external effects in power generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, H.; Morthorst, P.E.; Schleisner, L. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark); Meyer, N.I.; Nielsen, P.S.; Nielsen, V. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark (Denmark)

    1996-12-01

    This report summarises some of the results achieved in a project carried out in Denmark in 1994 concerning externalities. The main objective was to identify, quantify and - if possible - monetize the external effects in the production of energy, especially in relation to renewable technologies. The report compares environmental externalities in the production of energy using renewable and non-renewable energy sources, respectively. The comparison is demonstrated on two specific case studies. The first case is the production of electricity based on wind power plants compared to the production of electricity based on a coal-fired conventional plant. In the second case heat/power generation by means of a combined heat and power plant based on biomass-generated gas is compared to that of a combined heat and power plant fuelled by natural gas. In the report the individual externalities from the different ways of producing energy are identified, the stress caused by the effect is assessed, and finally the monetary value of the damage is estimated. The method is applied to the local as well as the regional and global externalities. (au) 8 tabs., 7 ills., 4 refs.

  8. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  9. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  10. Risk and protective factors for internalizing and externalizing outcomes among HIV-affected youth in Haiti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Michelle; Betancourt, Theresa; Eustache, Eddy; Oswald, Catherine; Louis, Ermaze; Mukherjee, Joia; Surkan, Pamela J; Smith Fawzi, Mary C

    2015-01-01

    The present study aims to: (1) estimate the levels of internalizing symptoms and externalizing behaviors among youth affected by HIV in central Haiti; and (2) examine the risk and protective factors associated with these outcomes to identify potential areas of intervention for HIV-affected youth. Baseline data for 492 youth affected by HIV (ages 10-17) and their 330 caregivers were collected for a pilot study of a psychosocial support intervention. Participants were recruited from a list of HIV-positive patients receiving care at Partners In Health/Zanmi Lasante clinic sites. Internalizing and externalizing behaviors were assessed using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Demographic, economic, and social indicators were collected using a structured questionnaire administered by trained social workers. Youth affected by HIV in central Haiti displayed high levels of internalizing and, to a lesser degree, externalizing symptoms. Multivariate regression analysis demonstrated risk factors most strongly associated with internalizing symptoms (socioeconomic status, parental depressive symptoms) and externalizing behaviors (household living arrangements, such as living with a stepparent). Social support had a protective effect on externalizing behaviors for both caregiver (β=-0.03, p=0.01) and self-report (β=-0.05, pHaiti and similar resource-limited settings.

  11. Pricing Externalities to Balance Public Risks and Benefits of Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farquhar, Sebastian; Cotton-Barratt, Owen; Snyder-Beattie, Andrew

    How should scientific funders evaluate research with public health risks? Some risky work is valuable, but accepting too much risk may be ethically neglectful. Recent controversy over H5N1 influenza experiments has highlighted the difficulty of this problem. Advocates of the research claim the work is needed to understand pandemics, while opponents claim that accidents or misuse could release the very pandemic the work is meant to prevent. In an attempt to resolve the debate, the US government sponsored an independent evaluation that successfully produced a quantitative estimate of the risks involved, but only a qualitative estimate of the benefits. Given the difficulties of this "apples-to-oranges" risk-benefit analysis, what is the best way forward? Here we outline a general approach for balancing risks and benefits of research with public risks. Instead of directly comparing risks and benefits, our approach requires only an estimate of risk, which is then translated into a financial price. This estimate can be obtained either through a centrally commissioned risk assessment or by mandating liability insurance, which allows private markets to estimate the financial burden of risky research. The resulting price can then be included in the cost of the research, enabling funders to evaluate grants as usual-comparing the scientific merits of a project against its full cost to society. This approach has the advantage of aligning incentives by assigning costs to those responsible for risks. It also keeps scientific funding decisions in the hands of scientists, while involving the public on questions of values and risk experts on risk evaluation.

  12. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  13. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  14. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  15. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  16. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  17. Life cycle assessment of a wind farm and related externalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schleisner, Liselotte

    2000-01-01

    This paper concentrates on the assessment of energy and emissions related to the production and manufacture of materials for an offshore wind farm as well as a wind farm on land based on a life cycle analysis (LCA) model. In Denmark a model has been developed for life cycle assessments of different...... materials. The model is able to assess the energy use related to the production, transportation and manufacture of 1 kg of material. The energy use is divided into fuels used in order to estimate the emissions through the life cycle. In the paper the model and the attached assumptions are described......, and the model is demonstrated for two wind farms. The externalities for the wind farms are reported, showing the importance of life cycle assessment for renewable energy technologies. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....

  18. Safety assessment of multi-unit NPP sites subject to external events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samaddar, Sujit; Hibino, Kenta; Coman, Ovidiu

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a framework for conducting a probabilistic safety assessment of multi-unit sites against external events. The treatment of multiple hazard on a unit, interaction between units, implementation of severe accident measures, human reliability, environmental conditions, metric of risk for both reactor and non-reactor sources, integration of risk and responses and many such important factors need to be addressed within the context of this framework. The framework facilitates the establishment of a comprehensive methodology that can be applied internationally to the peer review of safety assessment of multi-unit sites under the impact of multiple external hazards. In summary, it can be said that the site safety assessment for a multi-unit site will be quite complex and need to start with individual unit risk assessments, these need to be combined considering the interactions between units and their responses, and the fragilities of the installations established considering the combined demands from all interactions. Using newly established risk metric the risk can then be integrated for the overall site. Fig. 2 shows schematically such a proposal. Much work has to done and the IAEA has established a working group that is systematically establishing the structure and process to incorporate the many issues that are a part of a multi-unit site safety assessment. (authors)

  19. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  20. Health, environmental risks and externalities of nuclear and other energy systems of Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasiliev, A.P.; Demin, V.F.

    2000-01-01

    Due to different reasons the structure of electricity production systems of Russia should be reconsidered and changed. In this reconsideration the results of comparative risk assessment (CRA) and external cost assessment (ECA) are needed. CRA and ECA study has been carried out in the frame of the research program of International Center of Environmental Safety of Ministry of Atomic Energy of Russia. Main directions of this study are: 1) developing CRA and ECA methodology and data base ; 2) performing CRA and ECA for nuclear and other energy systems. Some tendencies in development of electricity production systems in Russia and preliminary results of CRA and ECA are described. (author)

  1. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  2. AN APPROACH TO THE EXTERNAL ASSESSMENT THROUGH EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ismael Sanz Labrador

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the empiral evidences of standardized evaluations and explores the aspects of such evaluations more interesting to the educational community, and investigates the effects in implementing those exams on the performance of students. Furthermore, it is analyzed the relationship between external evaluations and teaching to the test , it is seen how it affects the introduction of these evaluations in student learning and their performance in international assessments of different characteristics, and the effect it produces in schools located in disadvantaged areas.

  3. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  4. Analysing the external supply chain risk driver competitiveness: a risk mitigation framework and business continuity plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blos, Mauricio F; Wee, Hui-Ming; Yang, Joshua

    2010-11-01

    Innovation challenges for handling supply chain risks have become one of the most important drivers in business competitiveness and differentiation. This study analyses competitiveness at the external supply chain level as a driver of risks and provides a framework for mitigating these risks. The mitigation framework, also called the supply chain continuity framework, provides insight into six stages of the business continuity planning (BCP) process life cycle (risk mitigation management, business impact analysis, supply continuity strategy development, supply continuity plan development, supply continuity plan testing and supply continuity plan maintenance), together with the operational constructs: customer service, inventory management, flexibility, time to market, ordering cycle time and quality. The purpose of the BCP process life cycle and operational constructs working together is to emphasise the way in which a supply chain can deal with disruption risks and, consequently, bring competitive advantage. Future research will consider the new risk scenarios and analyse the consequences to promote the improvement of supply chain resilience.

  5. Developmental transitions in presentations of externalizing problems among boys and girls at risk for child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villodas, Miguel T; Litrownik, Alan J; Thompson, Richard; Jones, Deborah; Roesch, Scott C; Hussey, Jon M; Block, Stephanie; English, Diana J; Dubowitz, Howard

    2015-02-01

    The present study examined the impact of children's maltreatment experiences on the emergence of externalizing problem presentations among children during different developmental periods. The sample included 788 youth and their caregivers who participated in a multisite, prospective study of youth at-risk for maltreatment. Externalizing problems were assessed at ages 4, 8, and 12, and symptoms and diagnoses of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, and conduct disorder were assessed at age 14, during interviews with youth and caregivers. Information about maltreatment allegations was coded from official records. Latent transition analysis identified three groups of youth with similar presentations of externalizing problems ("well adjusted," "hyperactive/oppositional," and "aggressive/rule-breaking") and transitions between groups from ages 4, 8, and 12. A "defiant/deceitful" group also emerged at age 12. Girls were generally more likely to present as well adjusted than boys. Children with recent physical abuse allegations had an increased risk for aggressive/rule-breaking presentations during the preschool and preadolescent years, while children with sexual abuse or neglect allegations had lower probabilities of having well-adjusted presentations during middle childhood. These findings indicate that persistently severe aggressive conduct problems, which are related to the most concerning outcomes, can be identified early, particularly among neglected and physically and sexually abused children.

  6. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  7. Significance assessment of the external control effects of lecturers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurbatova Margarita, V.

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The state policy regarding higher education has changed in the last decade. These changes were part of the efficiency programs of the public sector. Governments of different countries ruined previously existing system of higher education state regulation and attempted to build the quasi-market structure in the higher education industry. Such transformations served as timely and progressive reforms in the recent studies of the economics of education. Substitution of bureaucratic management mechanisms and modern competition managerial tools are articulated. Economic and institutional and sociological studies on the effects of the introduction of quasi-markets and managerial tools in higher education governance oppose to orthodox market approach. They drew attention to the fact that evaluation methods and improve the effectiveness of organizations and employees that are typical of the private sector often produce results that differ from those in the public sector. To assess the consequences of the introduction of managerial tools of external control activities of university lecturers used a methodology based on the allocation of the individual structural components (effects and building on their basis of a multi-level hierarchical model in the research. Each component of the model (single effect is characterized by a degree of significance (importance and the degree of severity. The results of the systematization and assessment of the significance of the effects of external control activity of lecturers of Russian universities implemented in conditions of quasi-market mechanisms of the higher education system are highlighted in the paper.

  8. Development and external validation of a new PTA assessment scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacobs Bram

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Post-traumatic amnesia (PTA is a key symptom of traumatic brain injury (TBI. Accurate assessment of PTA is imperative in guiding clinical decision making. Our aim was to develop and externally validate a short, examiner independent and practical PTA scale, by selecting the most discriminative items from existing scales and using a three-word memory test. Methods Mild, moderate and severe TBI patients and control subjects were assessed in two separate cohorts, one for derivation and one for validation, using a questionnaire comprised of items from existing PTA scales. We tested which individual items best discriminated between TBI patients and controls, represented by sensitivity and specificity. We then created our PTA scale based on these results. This new scale was externally evaluated for its discriminative value using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC analysis and compared to existing PTA scales. Results The derivation cohort included 126 TBI patients and 31 control subjects; the validation cohort consisted of 132 patients and 30 controls. A set of seven items was eventually selected to comprise the new PTA scale: age, name of hospital, time, day of week, month, mode of transport and recall of three words. This scale demonstrated adequate discriminative values compared to existing PTA scales on three consecutive administrations in the validation cohort. Conclusion We introduce a valid, practical and examiner independent PTA scale, which is suitable for mild TBI patients at the emergency department and yet still valuable for the follow-up of more severely injured TBI patients.

  9. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  10. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  11. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  12. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  13. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  14. External exposure assessment in dwelling built with phosphogypsum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villaverde, Freddy Lazo

    2008-01-01

    In this study it was evaluated the viability of the use of phosphogypsum plates as a building material in the dwelling construction. Thus, the effective dose due to external gamma exposure was assessed through the 226 Ra, 232 Th, 210 Pb e 40 K activity concentration in phosphogypsum plates. Samples of this material were analyzed by high resolution gamma spectrometry for their natural radionuclide activity concentration. The radium equivalent activity and extern ai and inter nai hazard indices were also calculated. The plates were made with phosphogypsum from fertilizer industries located in Cajati, Cubatao and Uberaba. The samples were identified according to phosphogypsum origin, Cajati (CA), Cubatao (CT) and Uberaba (UB). The activity concentrations results varied from 15.9 to 392 Bq kg -1 for 226 Ra, 26.1 to 253 Bq kg -1 for 232 Th, and 27.4 to 852 Bq kg -1 for 210 Pb. The results of 40 K were lower than 81 Bq kg -1 . The annual effective dose was obtained through the dosimetric model with reference standard room concept, the results were 0.02 mSv y -1 for a house built with phosphogypsum from origin CA, 0.2 mSvy -1 for CT phosphogypsum and 0.14 mSvy -1 for UB phosphogypsum, everything the effective doses were below 1 mSvy -1 , an annual effective dose limit for public exposure by International Commission on Radiological Protection. (author)

  15. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  16. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  17. Analytical performance specifications for external quality assessment - definitions and descriptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Graham R D; Albarede, Stephanie; Kesseler, Dagmar; MacKenzie, Finlay; Mammen, Joy; Pedersen, Morten; Stavelin, Anne; Thelen, Marc; Thomas, Annette; Twomey, Patrick J; Ventura, Emma; Panteghini, Mauro

    2017-06-27

    External Quality Assurance (EQA) is vital to ensure acceptable analytical quality in medical laboratories. A key component of an EQA scheme is an analytical performance specification (APS) for each measurand that a laboratory can use to assess the extent of deviation of the obtained results from the target value. A consensus conference held in Milan in 2014 has proposed three models to set APS and these can be applied to setting APS for EQA. A goal arising from this conference is the harmonisation of EQA APS between different schemes to deliver consistent quality messages to laboratories irrespective of location and the choice of EQA provider. At this time there are wide differences in the APS used in different EQA schemes for the same measurands. Contributing factors to this variation are that the APS in different schemes are established using different criteria, applied to different types of data (e.g. single data points, multiple data points), used for different goals (e.g. improvement of analytical quality; licensing), and with the aim of eliciting different responses from participants. This paper provides recommendations from the European Federation of Laboratory Medicine (EFLM) Task and Finish Group on Performance Specifications for External Quality Assurance Schemes (TFG-APSEQA) and on clear terminology for EQA APS. The recommended terminology covers six elements required to understand APS: 1) a statement on the EQA material matrix and its commutability; 2) the method used to assign the target value; 3) the data set to which APS are applied; 4) the applicable analytical property being assessed (i.e. total error, bias, imprecision, uncertainty); 5) the rationale for the selection of the APS; and 6) the type of the Milan model(s) used to set the APS. The terminology is required for EQA participants and other interested parties to understand the meaning of meeting or not meeting APS.

  18. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  19. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  20. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  1. LCA and external costs in comparative assessment of electricity chains. Decision support for sustainable electricity provision?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voss, A.

    2002-01-01

    The provision of energy and electricity plays an important role in a country's economic and environmental performance and the sustainability of its development. Sustainable development of the energy and electricity sector depends on finding ways of meeting energy service demands of the present generation that are economically viable, environmentally sound, and socially acceptable and do not jeopardize the ability of future generations to meet their own energy needs. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and external cost valuation are considered to offer opportunities to assist energy policy in a comprehensive comparative evaluation of electricity supply options with regard to the different dimensions of sustainable energy provision as well as in the implementation of appropriate internalization strategies. The paper addresses life cycle assessment and external cost analysis carried out for selected electricity systems of interest under German conditions. Results from a comprehensive comparative assessment of various electricity supply options with regard to their environmental impacts, health risks, raw materials requirements as well as their resulting external cost will be summarised. The use of LCA based indicators for assessing the relative sustainability of electricity systems and the use of total (internal plus external) cost assessment as measure of economic and environmental efficiency of energy systems will be discussed. Open problems related to life cycle analysis of energy chains and the assessment of environmental damage costs are critically reviewed, to illustrate how in spite of existing uncertainties the state of the art results may provide helpful energy policy decision support. The paper starts with some remarks on what the concept of sustainability in terms of energy systems means. (author)

  2. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  3. Explosion approach for external safety assessment: a case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, D. Michael; Halford, Ann [Germanischer Lloyd, Loughborough (United Kingdom); Mendes, Renato F. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Several questions related to the potential for explosions are explored as this became an important subject during an enterprise risk analysis. The understanding of explosions underwent a substantial evolution in the final 20 years of the 20{sup th} century following international research projects in Europe involving several research institutes, as well gas and oil companies. This led to the development of techniques that could be used to assess the potential consequences of explosions on oil, gas and petrochemical facilities. This paper presents an overview of the potential for explosions in communities close to industrial sites or pipelines right of way (RoW), where the standard explosion assessment methods cannot be applied. With reference to experimental studies, the potential for confined explosions in buildings and Vapor Cloud Explosions is explored. Vapor Cloud Explosion incidents in rural or urban areas are also discussed. The method used for incorporating possible explosion and fire events in risk studies is also described using a case study. Standard explosion assessment methodologies and a revised approach are compared as part of an on going evaluation of risk (author)

  4. Prevalence, outcome, and women's experiences of external cephalic version in a low-risk population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rijnders, Marlies; Offerhaus, Pien; van Dommelen, Paula; Wiegers, Therese; Buitendijk, Simone

    2010-06-01

    Until recently, external cephalic version to prevent breech presentation at birth was not widely accepted. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, outcomes, and women's experiences of external cephalic version to improve the implementation of the procedure in the Netherlands. A prospective cohort study was conducted of 167 women under the care of a midwife with confirmed breech presentation at a gestational age of 33 completed weeks or more. Between June 2007 and January 2008, 167 women with a confirmed breech presentation were offered an external cephalic version. Of this group, 123 women (73.7%, 95% CI: 65.5-80.5) subsequently received the version. These women had about a ninefold increased probability of a cephalic presentation at birth compared with women who did not undergo a version (relative risk [RR]: 8.8, 95% CI: 2.2-34.8). The chance of a vaginal birth after an external cephalic version was almost threefold (RR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.5-5.0). The success rate was 39 percent, although considerable differences existed associated with region and parity. Ninety-four percent of women with a successful version rated it as a good experience compared with 71 percent of women who had a failed version (p = 0.015). Significant pain during the version was experienced by 34 percent of women, of whom 18 percent also experienced fear during the version, compared with no women who reported little or no pain (p = 0.006). Women who reported significant pain or fear during the version experienced the version more negatively (OR: 6.0, 95% CI: 3.3-12.2 and OR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.1-6.0, respectively). One in every four women with a breech presentation in independent midwifery care did not receive an external cephalic version. Of the women who received a version one third experienced significant pain during the procedure. Considerable regional variation in success rate existed.

  5. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  6. Risk factors for suicide in offspring bereaved by sudden parental death from external causes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrell, Lisa Victoria; Mehlum, Lars; Qin, Ping

    2017-11-01

    Parentally bereaved offspring have an increased suicide risk as a group, but the ability to identify specific individuals at risk on the basis of risk and protective factors is limited. The present study aimed to investigate to what degree different risk factors influence suicide risk in offspring bereaved by parental death from external causes. Based on Norwegian registers, individual-level data were retrieved for 375 parentally bereaved suicide cases and 7500 parentally bereaved gender- and age-matched living controls. Data were analysed with conditional logistic regression. Bereaved offspring with low social support, indicated by offspring's single status and repeated changes in marital status and residence, had a significantly increased suicide risk compared to bereaved offspring with high social support. Moreover, low socioeconomic status, having an immigration background, having lost both parents and loss due to suicide significantly increased suicide risk. Several variables relevant to bereavement outcome, such as coping mechanisms and the quality of the parent-offspring relationship are impossible to examine by utilizing population registers. Moreover, the availability of data did not enable the measurement of marital stability and residence stability across the entire lifespan for older individuals. Healthcare professionals should be aware of the additional risk posed by the identified risk factors and incorporate this knowledge into existing practice and risk assessment in order to identify individuals at risk and effectively target bereaved family and friends for prevention and intervention programs. Ideal follow-up for bereaved families should include a specific focus on mobilizing social support. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  8. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  9. Macroeconomic Risk Management in Nigeria : Dealing with External Shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Montenegro, Santiago; Claessens, Constantjin; Gooptu, Sudarshan; Imran, Mudassar; Powell, Andrew

    1995-01-01

    The Nigerian economy is highly dependent on a number of external variables beyond the control of policymakers and domestic agents. Most important among those variables is the price of oil, which is highly uncertain and determined in fluctuating international markets. With oil accounting for more than 90 percent of Nigeria's exports, 25 percent of its GDP, and 80 percent of its public reven...

  10. Assessment of the externalities of biomass energy for electricity production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linares, P; Leal, J; Saez, R M

    1996-10-01

    This study presents a methodology for the quantification of the socioeconomic and environmental externalities of the biomass fuel cycle. It is based on the one developed by the ExternE Project of the European Commission, based in turn in the damage function approach, and which has been extended and modified for a better adaptation to biomass energy systems. The methodology has been applied to a 20 MW biomass power plant, fueled by Cynara cardunculus, in southern Spain. The externalities addressed have been macroeconomic effects, employment, CO{sub 2}, fixation, erosion, and non-point source pollution. The results obtained should be considered only as subtotals, since there are still other externalities to be quantified. anyway, and in spite of the uncertainty existing, these results suggest that total cost (those including internal and external costs) of biomass energy are lower than those of conventional energy sources, what, if taken into account, would make biomass more competitive than it is now. (Author)

  11. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  12. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  13. The outcomes and risk factors of fetal bradycardia associated with external cephalic version.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suyama, Fumio; Ogawa, Kohei; Tazaki, Yukiko; Miwa, Terumi; Taniguchi, Kosuke; Nakamura, Noriyuki; Tanaka, Satomi; Tanigaki, Shinji; Sago, Haruhiko

    2017-11-02

    The objective of this study is to assess the outcomes and risk factors of fetal bradycardia after external cephalic version (ECV). We performed a retrospective study of women who underwent ECV after 35 weeks of gestation in 2010-2016. We assessed the birth outcomes, including umbilical cord artery pH, according to the duration of fetal bradycardia and the risk factors for bradycardia. Among 390 cases, 189 (48.5%) cases showed fetal bradycardia during or immediately after ECV. The duration of fetal bradycardia was 10 min occurred in three cases; emergency cesarean section was performed in each case, with delivery after 12-4 min of bradycardia. Two of three cases showed low Apgar scores at 5 min, with an umbilical cord arterial pH of 10 min after ECV was a risk factor for asphyxia. Thus, delivery should be completed within 10 min after bradycardia. A low maternal BMI and a prolonged ECV procedure were risk factors for bradycardia after ECV.

  14. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  15. A comparison of internal versus external risk-adjustment for monitoring clinical outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koetsier, Antonie; de Keizer, Nicolette; Peek, Niels

    2011-01-01

    Internal and external prognostic models can be used to calculate severity of illness adjusted mortality risks. However, it is unclear what the consequences are of using an external model instead of an internal model when monitoring an institution's clinical performance. Theoretically, using an

  16. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  17. The Influence of Organizational External Factors on Construction Risk Management among Nigerian Construction Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.Q. Adeleke

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Substantial empirical research has shown conflicting results regarding the influence of organizational external factors on construction risk management, suggesting the necessity to introduce a moderator into the study. The present research confirmed whether rules and regulations matter on the relationships between organizational external factors and construction risk management. Methods: Based on discouragement and organizational control theory, this research examined the effects of organizational external factors and rules and regulations on construction risk management among 238 employees operating in construction companies in Abuja and Lagos, Nigeria. A personally administered questionnaire was used to acquire the data. The data were analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling. Results: A significant positive relationship between organizational external factors and construction risk management was asserted. This study also found a significant positive relationship between rules and regulations and construction risk management. As anticipated, rules and regulations were found to moderate the relationship between organizational external factors and construction risk management, with a significant positive result. Similarly, a significant interaction effect was also found between rules and regulations and organizational external factors. Implications of the research from a Nigerian point of view have also been discussed. Conclusion: Political, economy, and technology factors helped the construction companies to reduce the chance of risk occurrence during the construction activities. Rules and regulations also helped to lessen the rate of accidents involving construction workers as well as the duration of the projects. Similarly, the influence of the organizational external factors with rules and regulations on construction risk management has proven that most of the construction companies that implement the

  18. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  19. An Exploratory Study: Assessment of Modeled Dioxin Exposure in Ceramic Art Studios (External Review Draft)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has released an external review draft entitled, An Exploratory Study: Assessment of Modeled Dioxin Exposure in Ceramic Art Studios(External Review Draft). The public comment period and the external peer-review workshop are separate processes that provide opportunities ...

  20. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  1. Cerebrospinal fluid leakage during transsphenoidal surgery: postoperative external lumbar drainage reduces the risk for meningitis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Aken, M. O.; Feelders, R. A.; de Marie, S.; van de Berge, J. H.; Dallenga, A. H. G.; Delwel, E. J.; Poublon, R. M. L.; Romijn, J. A.; van der Lely, A. J.; Lamberts, S. W. J.; de Herder, W. W.

    2004-01-01

    Postoperative meningitis is a well known complication of transsphenoidal surgery (TSS). The objective of this study was to evaluate whether postoperative external cerobrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage in case of intraoperative CSF-leakage, reduces the risk of postoperative meningitis. We

  2. A TCP model for external beam treatment of intermediate-risk prostate cancer.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Walsh, Seán

    2013-03-01

    Biological models offer the ability to predict clinical outcomes. The authors describe a model to predict the clinical response of intermediate-risk prostate cancer to external beam radiotherapy for a variety of fractionation regimes.

  3. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  7. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  8. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  9. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  10. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  11. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  12. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  13. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  14. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  15. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  16. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  17. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    for various types of equipment and piping and for operations performed by operators, and was obtained through sensitivity analysis, such as the influence of change in the maintenance periods of the occurrence frequency. This information might be of use for operation management. On the other hand, in order to have grasp of the risk profile at a reprocessing plant and in order for us to make good use of the risk information, it is also necessary to conduct risk assessments for incidents other than major accidents. Since it is appropriate to use a Graded Approach to assess the risks of such a large number of incidents effectively and efficiently, a simplified method, called ''improved risk index method'' was developed. It based on the Risk Index Method recommended by U.S. NRC. The Risk Index Method is simple and is appropriate for fuel cycle facilities where a wide variety of accidents may occur, but it is characterized by the fact that it requires engineering judgments by analysts when assessing the occurrence frequency, and the common components between the safety measures (the subordinacy) are difficult to clarify. In order to solve the problems inherent in the Risk Index Method, quantification, flexibility and traceability have been improved while maintaining its advantages. Currently, risk assessments for a wide variety of incidents and accidents are being conducted using the above mentioned methods and their results will be used for the improvement of operation management. Furthermore, risk assessments for external incidents (earthquakes, etc.) are being planned

  18. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  19. Timing of delivery after external cephalic version and the risk for cesarean delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabiri, Doron; Elram, Tamar; Aboo-Dia, Mushira; Elami-Suzin, Matan; Elchalal, Uriel; Ezra, Yossef

    2011-08-01

    To estimate the association between time of delivery after external cephalic version at term and the risk for cesarean delivery. This retrospective cohort study included all successful external cephalic versions performed in a tertiary center between January 1997 and January 2010. Stepwise logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratio (OR) for cesarean delivery. We included 483 external cephalic versions in this study, representing 53.1% of all external cephalic version attempts. The incidence of cesarean delivery for 139 women (29%) who gave birth less than 96 hours from external cephalic version was 16.5%; for 344 women (71%) who gave birth greater than 96 hours from external cephalic version, the incidence of cesarean delivery was 7.8% (P = .004). The adjusted OR for cesarean delivery was 2.541 (95% confidence interval 1.36-4.72). When stratified by parity, the risk for cesarean delivery when delivery occurred less than 96 hours after external cephalic version was 2.97 and 2.28 for nulliparous and multiparous women, respectively. Delivery at less than 96 hours after successful external cephalic version was associated with an increased risk for cesarean delivery. III.

  20. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  1. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  2. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  3. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  4. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  5. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  6. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  7. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  8. Prevalence, Outcome, and Women's Experiences of External Cephalic Version in a Low-Risk Population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijnders, Marlies; Offerhaus, Pien; van Dommelen, Paula; Wiegers, Therese; Buitendijk, Simone

    2010-01-01

    Background: Until recently, external cephalic version to prevent breech presentation at birth was not widely accepted. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, outcomes, and women's experiences of external cephalic version to improve the implementation of the procedure in the

  9. Prevalence, outcome, and women's experiences of external cephalic version in a low-risk population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijnders, M.; Offerhaus, P.; Dommelen, P. van; Wiegers, T.; Buitendijk, S.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Until recently, external cephalic version to prevent breech presentation at birth was not widely accepted. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, outcomes, and women's experiences of external cephalic version to improve the implementation of the procedure in the

  10. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  11. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  12. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  13. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  14. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  15. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  16. Internal and External Ethnic Assessments in Eastern Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Patricia; Feliciano, Cynthia; Emigh, Rebecca Jean

    2007-01-01

    Survey data for majority and minority ethnicities in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Russia illustrate how internal ethnic identification and other social characteristics influence external ethnic classification. Logistic regressions show how interviewers use negative social characteristics (poverty, low education) to classify respondents as Roma…

  17. Assessment of Environmental External Effects in Power Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyer, Henrik Jacob; Morthorst, Poul Erik; Ibsen, Liselotte Schleisner

    1996-01-01

    to the production of electricity based on a coal fired conventional plant. In the second case heat/power generation by means of a combined heat and power plant based on biomass-generated gas is compared to that of a combined heat and power plant fuelled by natural gas.In the report the individual externalities from...

  18. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  19. A methodology for assessment seismic risk in PSAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jae, Moo Sung

    2001-01-01

    This paper suggested a new framework for assessing seismic risk in PSAs. The framework used the concepts of requirement and achievement in the reliability physics. The quantified correlation which is a function of the requirement variable (hazard curve) and the achievement variable (fragility curve) results in a quantity, the unconditional frequency of exceeding a damage lelvel. This framework can be applied to any other external safety assessment, such as Fire and Flood Risk in PSAs

  20. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  1. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  2. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  3. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  4. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  5. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  6. Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daan Nieboer

    Full Text Available External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting.We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1 the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2 the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury.The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples. Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2.The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients.

  7. Internal dosimetry hazard and risk assessments: methods and applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, G.A.

    2006-01-01

    Routine internal dose exposures are typically (in the UK nuclear industry) less than external dose exposures: however, the costs of internal dosimetry monitoring programmes can be significantly greater than those for external dosimetry. For this reason decisions on when to apply routine monitoring programmes, and the nature of these programmes, can be more critical than for external dosimetry programmes. This paper describes various methods for performing hazard and risk assessments which are being developed by RWE NUKEM Limited Approved Dosimetry Services to provide an indication when routine internal dosimetry monitoring should be considered. (author)

  8. Mothers of children with externalizing behavior problems: cognitive risk factors for abuse potential and discipline style and practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McElroy, Erika M; Rodriguez, Christina M

    2008-08-01

    Utilizing the conceptual framework of the Social Information Processing (SIP) model (Milner, 1993, 2000), associations between cognitive risk factors and child physical abuse risk and maladaptive discipline style and practices were examined in an at-risk population. Seventy-three mothers of 5-12-year-old children, who were identified by their therapist as having an externalizing behavior problem, responded to self-report measures pertaining to cognitive risk factors (empathic perspective taking, frustration tolerance, developmental expectations, parenting locus of control), abuse risk, and discipline style and practices. The Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) provided a confirmation of the child's externalizing behaviors independent of the therapist's assessment. The results of this study suggest several cognitive risk factors significantly predict risk of parental aggression toward children. A parent's ability to empathize and take the perspective of their child, parental locus of control, and parental level of frustration tolerance were significant predictors of abuse potential (accounting for 63% of the variance) and inappropriate discipline practices (accounting for 55% of the variance). Findings of the present study provide support for processes theorized in the SIP model. Specifically, results underscore the potential role of parents' frustration tolerance, developmental expectations, locus of control, and empathy as predictive of abuse potential and disciplinary style in an at-risk sample.

  9. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  10. Life Cycle Assessment, ExternE and Comprehensive Analysis for an integrated evaluation of the environmental impact of anthropogenic activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pietrapertosa, F.; Cosmi, C. [National Research Council, Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis C.N.R.-I.M.A.A. C.da S.Loja, I-85050 Tito Scalo (PZ) (Italy); National Research Council, National Institute for the Physics of Matter, C.N.R.-I.N.F.M. Via Cinthia, I-80126 Naples (Italy); Macchiato, M. [Federico II University, Department of Physical Sciences, Via Cinthia, I-80126 Naples (Italy); National Research Council, National Institute for the Physics of Matter, C.N.R.-I.N.F.M. Via Cinthia, I-80126 Naples (Italy); Salvia, M.; Cuomo, V. [National Research Council, Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis C.N.R.-I.M.A.A. C.da S.Loja, I-85050 Tito Scalo (PZ) (Italy)

    2009-06-15

    The implementation of resource management strategies aimed at reducing the impacts of the anthropogenic activities system requires a comprehensive approach to evaluate on the whole the environmental burdens of productive processes and to identify the best recovery strategies from both an environmental and an economic point of view. In this framework, an analytical methodology based on the integration of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), ExternE and Comprehensive Analysis was developed to perform an in-depth investigation of energy systems. The LCA methodology, largely utilised by the international scientific community for the assessment of the environmental performances of technologies, combined with Comprehensive Analysis allows modelling the overall system of anthropogenic activities, as well as sub-systems, the economic consequences of the whole set of environmental damages. Moreover, internalising external costs into partial equilibrium models, as those utilised by Comprehensive Analysis, can be useful to identify the best paths for implementing technology innovation and strategies aimed to a more sustainable energy supply and use. This paper presents an integrated application of these three methodologies to a local scale case study (the Val D'Agri area in Basilicata, Southern Italy), aimed to better characterise the environmental impacts of the energy system, with particular reference to extraction activities. The innovative methodological approach utilised takes advantage from the strength points of each methodology with an added value coming from their integration as emphasised by the main results obtained by the scenario analysis. (author)

  11. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  13. External radiation assessment in a wet phosphoric acid production plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolivar, J.P.; Perez-Moreno, J.P. [Dept. Fisica Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias Experimentales, Universidad de Huelva, 21012 Huelva (Spain); Mas, J.L. [Dept. Fisica Aplicada I, Escuela Universitaria Politecnica, Universidad de Sevilla, 41012 Sevilla (Spain)], E-mail: ppmasb@us.es; Martin, J.E.; San Miguel, E.G. [Dept. Fisica Aplicada, Facultad de Ciencias Experimentales, Universidad de Huelva, 21012 Huelva (Spain); Garcia-Tenorio, R. [Dept. Fisica Aplicada II, Escuela Tecnica Superior de Arquitectura, Universidad de Sevilla, 41012 Sevilla (Spain)

    2009-10-15

    The factories dedicated to the production of phosphoric acid by the so-called wet acid method are usually considered typical NORM industries, because the phosphate rock used as raw material usually contains high concentrations of {sup 238}U-series radionuclides. The magnitude and behaviour of the radionuclides involved in the production process revealed the need to determine its dosimetric impact on workers. This work aims to partially compensate this lack of knowledge through the determination of external effective dose rates at different zones in the process at a typical plant located in the southwest of Spain. To this end, two dosimetric sampling campaigns have been carried out at this phosphoric acid production plant. The first sampling was carried out when phosphate rocks originating in Morocco were processed, and the second one when phosphate rock processed came from the Kola Peninsula (Russia Federation). This differentiation was necessary because the activity concentrations are almost one order of magnitude higher in Moroccan phosphate rock than in Kola phosphate rock. The results obtained have reflected external dose rate enhancements as high as 1.4 {mu}Sv h{sup -1} (i.e., up to thirty times the external exposition due to radionuclides in unperturbed soils) at several points in the facility, particularly where the digested rock (pulp) is filtered. However, the most problematic points are characterised by a small occupation factor. That means that the increment in the annual effective external gamma dose received by the most-exposed worker is clearly below 1 mSv (European Commission limit for the general population) under normal production. Nevertheless, special care in the design and schedule of cleaning and maintaining work in the areas with high doses should be taken in order to avoid any possibility of exceeding the previously mentioned general population limit. In addition, the results of the dosimetric campaign showed no clear correlation between {sup

  14. Assessment and treatment of external and internal radionuclide contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-04-01

    The most serious problems arise from accidents involving radionuclide contamination. This was demonstrated by experience from the Chernobyl and Goiania accidents, where large groups of people were externally and internally contaminated and which demanded significant management efforts from the health and other authorities. It is important that radionuclide contamination be minimized, not only by preventive measures, but also by good medical management when an exposure has occurred. This is an updated Technical Document based upon the IAEA Safety Series No. 88 ''Medical Handling of Accidentally Exposed Individuals'' and IAEA-TECDOC-366 ''What the General Practitioner (MD) Should Know about Medical Handling of Overexposed Individuals''. 26 refs, 3 figs, 2 tabs

  15. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  16. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  17. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  18. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  19. A risk-informed framework for establishing a beyond design basis safety basis for external hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amico, P. [Hughes Associates, Inc, Baltimore, MD (United States); Anoba, R. [Hughes Associates, Inc, Raleigh, NC (United States); Najafi, B. [Hughes Associates, Inc., Los Gatos, CA (United States)

    2014-07-01

    The events at Fukushima Daiichi taught us that meeting a deterministic design basis requirement for external hazards does not assure that the risk is low. As observed at the plant, the two primary reasons for this are failure cliffs above the design basis event and that combined hazard effects are not considered in design. Because the possible combinations of design basis exceedences and external hazard combinations are very large and complex, an approach focusing only on the most important ones is needed. For this reason, a risk informed approach is the most effective approach, which is discussed in this paper. (author)

  20. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  1. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  2. Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dovilė Peškauskaitė

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

  3. Introduction to Toxicity and Risk Assessment for Project Chemists

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-27

    Toxicity of Hexavalent Chromium  External review complete  EPA will wait until studies underway on carcinogenic mode of action are complete to...finalize the assessment  NJ and Cal values for hex chrome 16 Risk-Based Screening Levels Resident Soil (mg/kg) Resident Water Use (µg/L) DRAFT 0.04

  4. Early cumulative risk predicts externalizing behavior at age 10: The mediating role of adverse parenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gach, Emily J; Ip, Ka I; Sameroff, Arnold J; Olson, Sheryl L

    2018-02-01

    Multiple environmental risk factors in early childhood predict a broad range of adverse developmental outcomes. However, most prior longitudinal research has not illuminated explanatory mechanisms. Our main goals were to examine predictive associations between cumulative ecological risk factors in early childhood and children's later externalizing problems and to determine whether these associations were explained by variations in parenting quality. Participants were 241 children (118 girls) at risk for school-age conduct problems and their parents and teachers. Children were approximately 3 years old at Time 1 (T1) and 10 years old at Time 2 (T2). Reports of contextual risk at T1 were used to develop a cumulative risk index consisting of 6 singular risk variables from 3 ecological levels: social resources (low income; social isolation), family resources (marital aggression; poor total family functioning), and maternal resources (single parent status; poor maternal mental health). At T1, parenting variables were measured (corporal punishment, warm responsiveness, maternal efficacy, and negative perceptions of child behavior). At T2, mothers, fathers, and teachers reported child externalizing problems. Johnson's relative weight analysis revealed that the cumulative risk index was a more powerful predictor of age 10 years externalizing behavior than any of the singular contextual risk variables. Adverse parenting mediated the effects of cumulative risk on later child externalizing problems. Our findings have significant implications for understanding long-term effects of multiple contextual risk factors present in early childhood and for the implementation of positive parenting interventions early on. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Differences in methodologies used for externality assessment. Why are the numbers different?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schleisner, Lotte

    1999-06-01

    During the last few years, externalities related to power production technologies have been calculated making use of different methodologies. The external costs may turn out to be very different for the same fuel cycle depending on the methodology that has been used to assess the externalities. The report gives a review of different valuation issues, which are used in different externality studies and focuses on why the numbers often are different for the same fuel cycle, using different methodologies for assessment of the externalities. The review of externality valuation focuses in this report on the assessment of environmental externalities. Importance has been attached to health effects, as these are the dominating effects in the external costs. Other effects are only mentioned on a superior level. The report points out different parameters, which are important to consider when externalities estimated for the same fuel cycle in different studies are compared. 8 studies have been chosen for further analysis and comparison in order to show the variation in external costs. The comparison shows the importance of possessing knowledge of which kind of methodologies have been used, which impacts are included etc. to explain why the numbers vary so much in different studies for the same fuel cycle. As an example a comparison of the impacts and damage costs related to air emissions has been made for three studies using different methodologies. The external costs are estimated for the same reference plant using the dispersion models, dose-response functions, impacts and monetary values from the three studies. The estimates from the three studies are compared two and two, and a more detailed analysis is performed in relation to human health, which is the dominating impact in all externality studies. (au) EFP-97. 29 tabs., 12 ills., 34 refs

  6. Differences in methodologies used for externality assessment. Why are the numbers different?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schleisner, Lotte

    1999-06-01

    During the last few years, externalities related to power production technologies have been calculated making use of different methodologies. The external costs may turn out to be very different for the same fuel cycle depending on the methodology that has been used to assess the externalities. The report gives a review of different valuation issues, which are used in different externality studies and focuses on why the numbers often are different for the same fuel cycle, using different methodologies for assessment of the externalities. The review of externality valuation focuses in this report on the assessment of environmental externalities. Importance has been attached to health effects, as these are the dominating effects in the external costs. Other effects are only mentioned on a superior level. The report points out different parameters, which are important to consider when externalities estimated for the same fuel cycle in different studies are compared. 8 studies have been chosen for further analysis and comparison in order to show the variation in external costs. The comparison shows the importance of possessing knowledge of which kind of methodologies have been used, which impacts are included etc. to explain why the numbers vary so much in different studies for the same fuel cycle. As an example a comparison of the impacts and damage costs related to air emissions has been made for three studies using different methodologies. The external costs are estimated for the same reference plant using the dispersion models, dose-response functions, impacts and monetary values from the three studies. The estimates from the three studies are compared two and two, and a more detailed analysis is performed in relation to human health, which is the dominating impact in all externality studies. (au) EFP-97. 29 tabs., 12 ills., 34 refs.

  7. Food or Thought? Assessing Internal and External Factors Affecting Evaluations of Instructor Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, John; Kiggins, Ryan; Kickham, Kenneth

    2017-01-01

    Within the broader literature concerned with potential bias in student measures of instructor effectiveness, two broad types of bias have been shown to operate in a course: internal and external. Missing is an assessment of the relative influence of each bias type in the classroom. Do internal or external types of bias matter more or less to…

  8. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  9. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  10. Investigation of occupational health and safety application using the internal and external factor assessment matrix: SWOT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2012-09-01

    Material and Method: IIn this study, the threats, opportunities, weaknesses and strengths were evaluated by one of the tools named SWOT, in one of the assembly industries company in Iran, in order to controlling the operations in this company considering to safety and health standard (OHSAS18001. A comparison of the company’s performance in implementing the safety and health standards was done between years 1387 and 1388 contain in the Company considered, and weighted scoring weaknesses, strengths, threats and opportunities using the matrix of internal factors (strengths and weaknesses and external factors (treats and opportunities then, the importance of each factor were determined in the company’s implementation and enforcement of those standards. . Result: Focusing on the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats, some strategies to improve the implementation were presented. Any points were weighted based on the most important weaknesses identified as the lack of monitoring contractors, lack of management commitment for implementation of OHSAS18001, no attempt to identify the risks of change, lack of training needs assessment, main strengths identified in the context of adequate budget health and safety, environmental efforts, identify risk for abnormal conditions, the most important threats for immediate delivery customer orders and the opportunity to support the safety and health plans, were determined. . Conclusion: Sum of the weighted scores in year 87 were obtained for the external factors (opportunities and threats, 2.16 and internal factors (strengths and weaknesses 1.66. Both of these scores were less than 2.5 (minimum amount of the acceptable rate so, the company has been poor performance in the implementation of this standard for the year 87 and a weak reaction in the use of opportunities and the minimize threats has. In case of internal factors, it was worse than external one and the situation was more bold of the weaknesses companies to

  11. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  12. Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) of Ozone and Related Photochemical Oxidants (Second External Review Draft, Sep 2011)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has released the Integrated Science Assessment of Ozone and Related Photochemical Oxidants (Second External Review Draft) for independent peer review and public review. This draft document represents a concise synthesis and evaluation of the most policy-relevant scienc...

  13. Integration of risk aversion in the evaluation of the external cost of a nuclear accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eeckhoudt, L.; Schieber, C.; Schneider, Th.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: the external costs of fuel cycles used in the production of electricity are those imposed on society and environment that are not accounted for by the producers and consumers of energy. Within the evaluation of the external cost of the nuclear fuel cycle, the evaluation of a nuclear accident has to be addressed. For this purpose, the basic approach consists in calculating the expected value of various occident scenarios. the main criticism of this approach is that there is a discrepancy between the social acceptability of the risk and the average monetary value which corresponds in principle to the compensation of the consequences for each individual of the population affected by the accident. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for the integration of risk aversion, relying on the expected utility approach, as well as a numerical application based on the French data for the external cost of a nuclear accident. Although a huge range of values has been published for the relative risk aversion coefficient, it seems reasonable to adopt a value of 2 for the specific case of nuclear accident. This leads to an estimated multiplying coefficient approximately equal to 20 to be applied to the expected external cost of a nuclear accident corresponding to a release of about 1% of the core. In this case, the external cost of the nuclear accident is estimated to 0.046 mECU/kWh (i.e. about 50% of the total external costs of the nuclear fuel cycle estimated at 0.1 mECU/kWh with a 3% discount rate), instead of 0.0023 mECU/kWh without taking into account risk aversion. (authors)

  14. Corporate risk and external sourcing: A study of Scandinavian multinational firms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Pantzalis, Christos; Sørensen, Helle

    2016-01-01

    data by surveying Scandinavian non-financial firms. We find that highly international firms reduce corporate risk by externally sourcing from foreign suppliers both compared to sourcing from own production facilities abroad (due to superior flexibility) and compared to domestic sourcing (due...

  15. Effect of an internally versus externally focused acl injury prevention program on injury risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dallinga, J.; Benjaminse, A.; Gokeler, A.; Otten, Egbert; Lemmink, K.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury prevention programs have shown mixed results, which may be in part due to suboptimal training components. OBJECTIVE: Determine effects of a prevention program with external and internal focus of attention on (potential) biomechanical risk factors

  16. Incidence and risk factors for pin tract infection in external fixation of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Incidence and risk factors for pin tract infection in external fixation of fractures ... for pin tract infection, there were 93 pins scored grade 1, 32 pins grade 2, 15 ... The incidence increased from 20.5% in closed fractures to 75.9% in open fractures.

  17. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  18. The probabilistic risk analysis of external hazards of an interim storage for spent nuclear fuel in Olkiluoto

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puukka, Tiia

    2014-01-01

    Due to natural disasters occurred in the world and the experiences perceived of the Fukushima nuclear accident, the particular knowledge of the role and influence of external hazards in the safety of interim storage of spent nuclear fuel has been emphasized. For that reason it is substantial that they are included in the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the interim storage facility. This is also required by the Regulatory Guides issued by The Finnish Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority STUK. To enhance safety culture and nuclear safety in Olkiluoto, The Finnish utility Teollisuuden Voima Oyj has recently completed an analysis of external natural (seismic events are studied as a separate analysis) and unintentional human-induced risks associated with the spent fuel pool cooling and decay heat removal systems as part of the full-scope PRA study for the interim storage of spent fuel (KPA store). The analysis had four goals to achieve: (1) to determine the definition of an initiating event in the context of the KPA store, (2) to identify all potential external hazards and hazard combinations, (3) to perform a qualitative screening analysis based on frequency-strength analysis and detailed plant responses analysis and (4) to model the hazards passed the screening analysis so that model can be used as a risk analysis tool in the risk informed decision making and operating procedures. The assessment carried out included the analysis of operation procedures of decay heat removal, the study of external hazards related initiating events included in the PRA of the OL1 and OL2 nuclear power plants and their dependencies on the initiating events of the KPA store. All external hazards related initiating events were modeled using fault tree linking method. The main result and conclusion of this study was that using the screening analysis, initiating events caused by external hazards that could lead to leakage of the spent fuel pools or that could pose a threat to the

  19. Lack of grading agreement among international hemostasis external quality assessment programs

    OpenAIRE

    Olson, John D.; Jennings, Ian; Meijer, Piet; Bon, Chantal; Bonar, Roslyn; Favaloro, Emmanuel J.; Higgins, Russell A.; Keeney, Michael; Mammen, Joy; Marlar, Richard A.; Meley, Roland; Nair, Sukesh C.; Nichols, William L.; Raby, Anne; Reverter, Joan C.

    2018-01-01

    Laboratory quality programs rely on internal quality control and external quality assessment (EQA). EQA programs provide unknown specimens for the laboratory to test. The laboratory's result is compared with other (peer) laboratories performing the same test. EQA programs assign target values using a variety of methods statistical tools and performance assessment of ‘pass’ or ‘fail’ is made. EQA provider members of the international organization, external quality assurance in thrombosis and h...

  20. Laboratory diagnosis of the rare anaemias: external quality assessment benefits patient care

    OpenAIRE

    Barbara De La Salle; Andrea Mosca; Renata Paleari; Vasileios Rapanakis; Keith Hyde

    2013-01-01

    Since its introduction in the 1960s, external quality assessment has developed to become an essential component of the quality management system of the diagnostic laboratory. External quality assessment provides a long term, retrospective view of laboratory performance, demonstrating the competence of the laboratory to others. The ENERCA project (the European Network for Rare and Congenital Anaemias) has established a list of core laboratory tests that are used in the diagnosis of rare and co...

  1. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  2. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  3. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  4. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  5. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  6. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  7. Assessment on nursing serviceat hospital external consulting rooms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mª Dolores Poyatos Ruiz

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The social needs and requests change constantly, so that health care is evolving to a more focused on the users, in order to meet users´ needs and expectations of those who are going to get our assistance. Aim: We have developed a research to evaluate the quality of the assistance received by the patientst in their first encounter in the hospital external consulting rooms of traumathology at Santa Bárbara Hospital, letting us know about the patient´s satisfaction after the consulting has finished. Material and method: A transverse descriptive study on the traumathology consulting room of Santa Bárbara Hospital in Puertollano was developed for two months. The research is formed by the patients who attend this consulting room for their first time. A self made multiple choice questionnaire, which was designe by experts, and patients were asked to answer it once their first consulting at traumathology service had finished. Results: 95.6% of the patients considered as good or very good the nursing kindness (confidence/reliabitity when seeing them; 93.5% of them considered as good or very good the information given to them and 90.6% of them considered as good or very good the medical explanations they got. We also noticed a significant statistical difference among nursing kindness (confidence/reliabitity, enough consultation time and explanations received, with regard to the variant high resolution. Conclusions: The study reveals that more than 90% of the interviewed people considered as good or very good the clinical assistance and service given. The research has allowed us to know the areas that we can work on and improve.

  8. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  9. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  10. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  11. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  12. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  13. EMPLOYEES COMPETITIVENESS ASSESSMENT ON INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL LABOUR MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatiana Ismailova

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an overview of foreign and domestic research to the approaches of employees assessment in terms of their competitiveness. Based on the experience of large industrial enterprises the dominant elements that form employee competitiveness were determined. A different methodology that takes into account the impact of economic globalization was given. Its validity is based on mathematical calculations and use of software.

  14. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  15. The breech presentation and the vertex presentation following an external version represent risk factors for neonatal hip instability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, J E; Odén, A

    2001-08-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the frequency and type of hip-joint instability and the frequency of hip dislocation requiring treatment in neonates who had been lying in the breech presentation and were delivered vaginally after an external version or by caesarean section, and to compare them with neonates who were naturally in the vertex presentation. Breech presentations without ongoing labour were subjected to an attempted external version and, in cases where this proved unsuccessful or where labour had started, to deliver by caesarean section. None of the breech presentations was vaginally delivered. The anterior-dynamic ultrasound method was used to assess the hip-joint status of the neonates. Out of 6,571 foetuses, 257 were in breech presentation after 36 wk of pregnancy. Sixty-two were vaginally delivered following an external version to vertex presentation and 195 were delivered by caesarean section, 75 of these following unsuccessful attempts to perform a version. Treatment for congenital hip-joint dislocation was performed on 0.2%. Out of the breech presentations, 1.0% of those delivered by caesarean section were treated, while in those with vaginal delivery following an external version the treatment frequency was 3.2%. No case of late diagnosed hip dislocation was recorded. Significant differences in frequency of hip-joint instability and treatment were found between (i) neonates delivered in breech presentation and those delivered with vertex presentation, (ii) infants delivered in vertex presentation, naturally or after successful version, and (iii) those delivered by caesarean section with or without attempted external version and those delivered with vortex presentation. Breech presentation predisposes to increased hip instability. The instability is present prior to delivery and is certainly not a primary result of delivery forces. Both breech and vertex presentations following an external or spontaneous version should be considered as risk

  16. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  17. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  18. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  19. External validation of the NOBLADS score, a risk scoring system for severe acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomonori Aoki

    Full Text Available We aimed to evaluate the generalizability of NOBLADS, a severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB prediction model which we had previously derived when working at a different institution, using an external validation cohort. NOBLADS comprises the following factors: non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, no diarrhea, no abdominal tenderness, blood pressure ≤ 100 mmHg, antiplatelet drug use, albumin < 3.0 g/dL, disease score ≥ 2, and syncope.We retrospectively analyzed 511 patients emergently hospitalized for acute LGIB at the University of Tokyo Hospital, from January 2009 to August 2016. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs-AUCs for severe bleeding (continuous and/or recurrent bleeding were compared between the original derivation cohort and the external validation cohort.Severe LGIB occurred in 44% of patients. Several clinical factors were significantly different between the external and derivation cohorts (p < 0.05, including background, laboratory data, NOBLADS scores, and diagnosis. The NOBLADS score predicted the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.74 in the external validation cohort and one of 0.77 in the derivation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the score predicted the risk for blood transfusion need (AUC, 0.71, but was not adequate for predicting intervention need (AUC, 0.54. The in-hospital mortality rate was higher in patients with a score ≥ 5 than in those with a score < 5 (AUC, 0.83.Although the external validation cohort clinically differed from the derivation cohort in many ways, we confirmed the moderately high generalizability of NOBLADS, a clinical risk score for severe LGIB. Appropriate triage using this score may support early decision-making in various hospitals.

  20. Contextual risk, maternal parenting and adolescent externalizing behaviour problems: the role of emotion regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walton, A; Flouri, Eirini

    2010-03-01

    The objective of this study was to test if emotion regulation mediates the association between mothers' parenting and adolescents' externalizing behaviour problems (conduct problems and hyperactivity). The parenting dimensions were warmth, psychological control and behavioural control (measured with knowledge, monitoring and discipline). Adjustment was made for contextual risk (measured with the number of proximal adverse life events experienced), gender, age and English as an additional language. Data were from a UK community sample of adolescents aged 11-18 from a comprehensive school in a disadvantaged area. At the multivariate level, none of the parenting variables predicted hyperactivity, which was associated only with difficulties in emotion regulation, contextual risk and English as a first language. The parenting variables predicting conduct problems at the multivariate level were warmth and knowledge. Knowledge did not predict emotion regulation. However, warmth predicted emotion regulation, which was negatively associated with conduct problems. Contextual risk was a significant predictor of both difficulties in emotion regulation and externalizing behaviour problems. Its effect on conduct problems was independent of parenting and was not via its association with difficulties in emotion regulation. The findings add to the evidence for the importance of maternal warmth and contextual risk for both regulated emotion and regulated behaviour. The small maternal control effects on both emotion regulation and externalizing behaviour could suggest the importance of paternal control for adolescent outcomes.

  1. The influence of external factors on the credit risk in leasing industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholamreza Farsad Amanollahi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Credit risk consists of probability of non-return, which may be in the form of bankruptcy or a decrease in financial and credit situation of the lessee. The variables are extracted from the Central Bank. In this study the independent variables are measured with six factors that are called external factors. The external factors are size of leasing, ownership interest rate, foreign exchange, inflation, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP. The present study uses related observations from 31 leasing companies from 2008 to 2013 to find out the determinants of the credit risk. The combined evidences suggest that internal factors such as upfront prepayment, credit insurance contract, security deposits, time and period contract, collateral and guarantees, contract amount, as well as external factors such as interest rate, inflation, foreign exchange, Gross Domestic Product infrastructure, and credit risk are determinants in the policy-making process involving the industrial leasing. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate the size of leasing and ownership are not the significant determinants of credit risk. The results of this dissertation provide several implications for policy-makers in the leasing industry. Policy-makers will be better off employing different procedures for leasing activities in the leasing industry.

  2. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  3. Risk factors for cesarean section and instrumental vaginal delivery after successful external cephalic version.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Hundt, Marcella; Vlemmix, Floortje; Bais, Joke M J; de Groot, Christianne J; Mol, Ben Willem; Kok, Marjolein

    2016-01-01

    Aim of this article is to examine if we could identify factors that predict cesarean section and instrumental vaginal delivery in women who had a successful external cephalic version. We used data from a previous randomized trial among 25 hospitals and their referring midwife practices in the Netherlands. With the data of this trial, we performed a cohort study among women attempting vaginal delivery after successful ECV. We evaluated whether maternal age, gestational age, parity, time interval between ECV and delivery, birth weight, neonatal gender, and induction of labor were predictive for a vaginal delivery on one hand or a CS or instrumental vaginal delivery on the other hand. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were calculated with univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Among 301 women who attempted vaginal delivery after a successful external cephalic version attempt, the cesarean section rate was 13% and the instrumental vaginal delivery rate 6%, resulting in a combined instrumental delivery rate of 19%. Nulliparity increased the risk of cesarean section (OR 2.7 (95% CI 1.2-6.1)) and instrumental delivery (OR 4.2 (95% CI 2.1-8.6)). Maternal age, gestational age at delivery, time interval between external cephalic version and delivery, birth weight and neonatal gender did not contribute to the prediction of failed spontaneous vaginal delivery. In our cohort of 301 women with a successful external cephalic version, nulliparity was the only one of seven factors that predicted the risk for cesarean section and instrumental vaginal delivery.

  4. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  5. One Strategy for Assessing the Trustworthiness of Qualitative Research: Operationalizing the External Audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Dana L.

    The external audit is a way of assessing the trustworthiness of a study, attesting to its dependability from a methodological standpoint and to its confirmability by reviewing the data, analysis, and interpretations and assessing whether the findings represent the data accurately. This paper discusses issues in the audit process, drawing on data…

  6. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  7. Predictive Accuracy of the PanCan Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model -External Validation based on CT from the Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wille, M.M.W.; Riel, S.J. van; Saghir, Z.; Dirksen, A.; Pedersen, J.H.; Jacobs, C.; Thomsen, L.H.u.; Scholten, E.T.; Skovgaard, L.T.; Ginneken, B. van

    2015-01-01

    Lung cancer risk models should be externally validated to test generalizability and clinical usefulness. The Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial (DLCST) is a population-based prospective cohort study, used to assess the discriminative performances of the PanCan models.From the DLCST database, 1,152

  8. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  9. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  10. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  11. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  12. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  13. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  14. Validation of a scenario-based assessment of critical thinking using an externally validated tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buur, Jennifer L; Schmidt, Peggy; Smylie, Dean; Irizarry, Kris; Crocker, Carlos; Tyler, John; Barr, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    With medical education transitioning from knowledge-based curricula to competency-based curricula, critical thinking skills have emerged as a major competency. While there are validated external instruments for assessing critical thinking, many educators have created their own custom assessments of critical thinking. However, the face validity of these assessments has not been challenged. The purpose of this study was to compare results from a custom assessment of critical thinking with the results from a validated external instrument of critical thinking. Students from the College of Veterinary Medicine at Western University of Health Sciences were administered a custom assessment of critical thinking (ACT) examination and the externally validated instrument, California Critical Thinking Skills Test (CCTST), in the spring of 2011. Total scores and sub-scores from each exam were analyzed for significant correlations using Pearson correlation coefficients. Significant correlations between ACT Blooms 2 and deductive reasoning and total ACT score and deductive reasoning were demonstrated with correlation coefficients of 0.24 and 0.22, respectively. No other statistically significant correlations were found. The lack of significant correlation between the two examinations illustrates the need in medical education to externally validate internal custom assessments. Ultimately, the development and validation of custom assessments of non-knowledge-based competencies will produce higher quality medical professionals.

  15. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  16. Outline of manual on measurement and assessment of doses from external radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshizawa, Michio [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment; Tsujimura, Norio

    2001-03-01

    The external exposure part in the manual for measurement and assessment of doses from external radiation is described since the part is changed in accordance with the revision of the Law Concerning Prevention from Radiation Hazard due to Radioisotopes, Etc. The manual contains general remarks, control of external exposure and its methods, person monitoring, site monitoring, correction of instruments and storage of records. The 2nd and 3rd chapters are described in details, because which are considerably changed together with appendices concerning the operational quantity for measuring external dose, conversion coefficients, and correlations of 3 mm, 1 cm and 70 {mu}m dose equivalents. Making manuals unique to the individual offices, etc. is recommended in compliance with the above manual.(K.H.)

  17. External validation of models predicting the individual risk of metachronous peritoneal carcinomatosis from colon and rectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segelman, J; Akre, O; Gustafsson, U O; Bottai, M; Martling, A

    2016-04-01

    To externally validate previously published predictive models of the risk of developing metachronous peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) after resection of nonmetastatic colon or rectal cancer and to update the predictive model for colon cancer by adding new prognostic predictors. Data from all patients with Stage I-III colorectal cancer identified from a population-based database in Stockholm between 2008 and 2010 were used. We assessed the concordance between the predicted and observed probabilities of PC and utilized proportional-hazard regression to update the predictive model for colon cancer. When applied to the new validation dataset (n = 2011), the colon and rectal cancer risk-score models predicted metachronous PC with a concordance index of 79% and 67%, respectively. After adding the subclasses of pT3 and pT4 stage and mucinous tumour to the colon cancer model, the concordance index increased to 82%. In validation of external and recent cohorts, the predictive accuracy was strong in colon cancer and moderate in rectal cancer patients. The model can be used to identify high-risk patients for planned second-look laparoscopy/laparotomy for possible subsequent cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy. Colorectal Disease © 2015 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  18. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  19. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  20. The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krupnick, A.J.; Markandya, A.; Nickell, E.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report

  1. The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krupnick, A J; Markandya, A; Nickell, E

    1994-07-01

    This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report.

  2. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  3. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  4. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of Natural External Hazards Including Earthquakes. Workshop Proceedings, Prague, Czech Republic, 17-20 June 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    The Fukushima Dai-ichi accident triggered discussions about the significance of external hazards and their treatment in safety analyses. In addition, stress tests results have shown vulnerabilities and potential of cliff-edge effects in plant responses to external hazards and have identified possibilities and priorities for improvements and safety measures' implementation at specific sites and designs. In order to address these issues and provide relevant conclusions and recommendations to CSNI and CNRA, the CSNI Working Group on Risk Assessment (WGRISK) directed, in cooperation with the CSNI Working Group on Integrity and Ageing of Components and Structures (WGIAGE), a workshop hosted by UJV Rez. The key objectives of the workshop were to collect information from the OECD member states on methods and approaches being used, and experience gained in probabilistic safety assessment of natural external hazards, as well as to support the fulfillment of the CSNI task on 'PSA of natural external hazards including earthquakes'. These objectives are described more in detail in the introduction in Chapter 1 of this report. The WGRISK activities preceding the workshop and leading to the decision to organize it are described in Chapter 2 of this report. The focus of the workshop was on external events PSA for nuclear power plants, including all modes of operation. The workshop scope was generally limited to external, natural hazards, including those hazards where the distinction between natural and man-made hazards is not sharp. The detailed information about the presentations, discussions, and results of the workshop is presented in Chapter 3 of this report. Some general conclusions were agreed on during the workshop, which are presented in the following paragraphs. - The lessons learned from the Fukushima Dai-ichi reactor accidents and related actions at the national, regional, and global level have emphasized the importance to assess risks associated (authors) with

  5. Certification of health care organisations, assessment of professional practices and external radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdelmoumene, N.; Le Moign, R.

    2009-01-01

    In France, accreditation of health care organisations (HCOs) is mandatory every 4 years. It is based on a systemic approach and, since 2004, includes professional practice appraisal (EPP) against good practice guidelines. However, following an incident in Epinal, a new quality assurance criterion was introduced in 2007 for external radiotherapy (ERT) on top of the annual inspection of patient radiation protection by the Nuclear Safety Authority. In the accreditation procedure starting January 2010, ERT work organisation will come under 'high-risk activity' (criterion 26b) and radio-vigilance will be included in the adverse events reporting system (8i). In addition, ERT will have to comply with many generic criteria on quality and safety improvement. For example, practice appraisal of all clinical activities will become routine. Thus, besides self-assessment against criteria 26b and 8i, ERT professionals will have report the impact of their quality improvement actions on patient care. They will be able to freely choose the area for improvement, as long as it is in line with the HCO's overall quality and safety plan. In oncology, multidisciplinary team meetings for deciding on the treatment plan, as well as mortality and morbidity meetings providing feedback, are compulsory (28a). Appraisal of appropriateness of care (28b) and indicator-based practice appraisal (28c) complete the process. In conclusion, the generic practice appraisal approach that is part of the French HCO accreditation procedure can contribute toward improving health care and education, but it has not been designed for in-depth assessment of complex, multidisciplinary clinical practice such as ERT. Such assessment requires a specific clinical audit and specialized auditors. (authors)

  6. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  7. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  8. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  9. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  10. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  11. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  12. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  13. Coalbed methane and salmon : assessing the risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendling, G.; Vadgama, J.; Holmes, R.

    2008-05-01

    The harmful environmental impacts from coalbed methane (CBM) development on land, water and wildlife have all been well documented based on experience in the United States and elsewhere. However, proposals to develop CBM resources in the headwaters region of northwest British Columbia raise a new issue regarding the impacts of CBM extraction on salmon. In order to begin addressing this knowledge gap and provide essential information for communities, this report presented an assessment of the risks of CBM development on salmon, with a specific focus on a tenure held by Shell Canada Limited in the Klappan region of Northwest British Columbia. The report provided a general overview of the CBM extraction process and of the environmental impacts typically associated with commercial-scale production. The Klappan Tenure location and geology were described along with the significance of its CBM reserves. The report also addressed the question of salmon presence within the tenure, drawing on existing field research to identify streams where coho, chinook and sockeye salmon have been observed. The report also contained assessments of potential risks associated with the two primary impact pathways, notably runoff and erosion effects arising from land disturbance, and stream flow and temperature effects arising from groundwater extraction. The report provided a brief overview of additional CBM-related impacts which could have indirect effects on salmon. Last, the report considered factors external to the Klappan project which could influence the nature and severity of impacts on salmon, including climate change; inadequate regulations; and cumulative impacts. It was concluded that CBM development should not occur without social license. Communities need to be empowered to decide whether or not they support CBM extraction in their area before development proceeds. 73 refs., 3 tabs., 26 figs

  14. Pesticide Environmental Accounting: a method for assessing the external costs of individual pesticide applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leach, A W; Mumford, J D

    2008-01-01

    The Pesticide Environmental Accounting (PEA) tool provides a monetary estimate of environmental and health impacts per hectare-application for any pesticide. The model combines the Environmental Impact Quotient method and a methodology for absolute estimates of external pesticide costs in UK, USA and Germany. For many countries resources are not available for intensive assessments of external pesticide costs. The model converts external costs of a pesticide in the UK, USA and Germany to Mediterranean countries. Economic and policy applications include estimating impacts of pesticide reduction policies or benefits from technologies replacing pesticides, such as sterile insect technique. The system integrates disparate data and approaches into a single logical method. The assumptions in the system provide transparency and consistency but at the cost of some specificity and precision, a reasonable trade-off for a method that provides both comparative estimates of pesticide impacts and area-based assessments of absolute impacts.

  15. Monitoring and assessment of individual doses of occupationally exposed workers due to external radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitaw, S. T.

    2015-05-01

    Exposure to external radiation occurs in many occupations. Any exposure to ionizing radiation has the tendency to change the biochemical make-up of the human body which may result in biological health effects of ionizing radiation. This study reviews the monitoring and assessment of external radiation doses in industrial radiography using thermoluminescence and direct reading dosimeters. Poor handling procedures such as inadequate engineering control of equipment, safety culture, management, and inadequate assessment and monitoring of doses are the causes of most of the reported cases of exposure to external radiation in industrial radiography. Occupational exposure data in industrial radiography from UNSCEAR report 2008 was discussed and recommendations were made to regulatory authorities, operating organizations and radiographers. (au)

  16. Estimation of integrated public risks for nonseismic external events affecting the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durant, W.S.; robinette, R.J.; Kirchner, J.R.

    1994-03-01

    In essence, this study was envisioned as the ''combination'' of existing accident dose and risk calculations from safety analyses of individual facilities. However, because of the extended time period over which the safety analyses were prepared, calculational assumptions and methodologies differed between the analyses. The scope of this study therefore included the standardization of assumptions and calculations as necessary to insure that the analytical logic was consistent for all the facilities. Each of the nonseismic external events considered in the analyses are addressed in individual sections in this report. In Section 2, extreme straight-line winds are examined. Section 3 addresses tornadoes, and Section 4 addresses other external events [floods, other extreme weather events (lightning, hail, and extremes in temperature or precipitation), vehicle impact, accidents involving adjacent facilities, aircraft impact, and meteorite impact]. Section 5 provides a summary of the general conclusions of the report

  17. 103PD brachytherapy and external beam irradiation for clinically localized, high-risk prostatic carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dattoli, Michael; Wallner, Kent; Sorace, Richard; Koval, John; Cash, Jennifer; Acosta, Rudolph; Brown, Charles; Etheridge, James; Binder, Michael; Brunelle, Richard; Kirwan, Novelle; Sanchez, Servando; Stein, Douglas; Wasserman, Stuart

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: To summarize biochemical failure rates and morbidity of external beam irradiation (EBRT) combined with palladium ( 103 Pd) boost for clinically localized high-risk prostate carcinoma. Methods and Materials: Seventy-three consecutive patients with stage T2a-T3 prostatic carcinoma were treated from 1991 through 1994. Each patient had at least one of the following risk factors for extracapsular disease extension: Stage T2b or greater (71 patients), Gleason score 7-10 (40 patients), prostate specific antigen (PSA) >15 (32 patients), or elevated prostatic acid phosphatase (PAP) (17 patients). Patients received 41 Gy EBRT to a limited pelvic field, followed 4 weeks later by a 103 Pd boost (prescription dose: 80 Gy). Biochemical failure was defined as a PSA greater than 1.0 ng/ml (normal 103 Pd brachytherapy for clinically localized, high-risk prostate cancer compare favorably with that reported after conventional dose EBRT alone. Morbidity has been acceptable

  18. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  19. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  20. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  1. Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Carbon Monoxide (Second External Review Draft, Sep 2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced that the Second External Review Draft of the Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Carbon Monoxide (CO) and related Annexes was made available for independent peer review and public review. This draft ISA document represents a concise synthesis and evaluation of t...

  2. Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Sulfur Oxides – Health Criteria (First External Review Draft, Sep 2007)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced that the First External Review Draft of the Integrated Science Assessment (ISA) for Sulfur Oxides – Health Criteria has been made available for independent peer review and public review. This draft ISA document represents a concise synthesis and evaluatio...

  3. Assessing the Organisational Impact of External Quality Assurance: Hypothesising Key Dimensions and Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stensaker, Bjørn; Leiber, Theodor

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the article is to provide a framework in which the organisational impact of external quality assurance (EQA) can be assessed. Based on existing studies of the impact of EQA in universities and colleges it is suggested that greater systematisation of how impact is measured is needed for a better understanding of how EQA can be used as a…

  4. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  5. Risk-Informed External Hazards Analysis for Seismic and Flooding Phenomena for a Generic PWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parisi, Carlo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steve [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ma, Zhegang [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Spears, Bob [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Szilard, Ronaldo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Coleman, Justin [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kosbab, Ben [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2017-07-26

    This report describes the activities performed during the FY2017 for the US-DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (LWRS-RISMC), Industry Application #2. The scope of Industry Application #2 is to deliver a risk-informed external hazards safety analysis for a representative nuclear power plant. Following the advancements occurred during the previous FYs (toolkits identification, models development), FY2017 focused on: increasing the level of realism of the analysis; improving the tools and the coupling methodologies. In particular the following objectives were achieved: calculation of buildings pounding and their effects on components seismic fragility; development of a SAPHIRE code PRA models for 3-loops Westinghouse PWR; set-up of a methodology for performing static-dynamic PRA coupling between SAPHIRE and EMRALD codes; coupling RELAP5-3D/RAVEN for performing Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty analysis and automatic limit surface search; and execute sample calculations for demonstrating the capabilities of the toolkit in performing a risk-informed external hazards safety analyses.

  6. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  7. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  8. External Criticality Risk of Immobilized Plutonium Waste Form in a Geologic Repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McClure, J.

    2001-01-01

    This purpose of this technical report is to provide a comprehensive summary of the waste package (WP) external criticality-related risk of the Plutonium Disposition ceramic waste form, which is being developed and evaluated by the Office of Fissile Materials Disposition of the United States Department of Energy (DOE). Potential accumulation of the fissile materials, 239 Pu and 235 U, in rock formations having a favorable chemical environment for such actions, requires analysis because autocatalytic configurations, while unlikely to form, never-the-less have consequences which are undesirable and require evaluation. Secondly, the WP design has evolved necessitating a re-evaluation of the internal WP degradation scenarios that contribute to the external source terms. The scope of this study includes a summary of the revised WP degradation calculations, a summary of the accumulation mechanisms in fractures and lithophysae in the tuff beneath the WP footprint, and a summary of the criticality risk calculations from any accumulated fissile material. Accumulations of fissile material external to the WP sufficient to pose a potential criticality risk require a deposition mechanism operating over sufficient time to reach required levels. The transporting solution concentrations themselves are well below critical levels (CRWMS 2001e). The ceramic waste form consists of Pu immobilized in ceramic disks, which would be embedded in High-Level Waste (HLW) glass in the standard HLW glass disposal canister. The ceramic disks would occupy approximately 12% of the HLW canister volume, while most of the remaining 88% of the volume would be occupied by HLW glass

  9. Parent training: equivalent improvement in externalizing behavior for children with and without familial risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presnall, Ned; Webster-Stratton, Carolyn H; Constantino, John N

    2014-08-01

    The Incredible Years Series intervention has demonstrated efficacy for decreasing conduct disorder (CD) symptomatology in clinically affected youth in multiple randomized controlled trials. Because children with family psychiatric histories of antisocial behavior are at markedly increased risk for enduring symptoms of antisocial behavior (compared with their counterparts with a negative family history), the authors examined whether intervention effects across studies would prevail in that subgroup or would be relatively restricted to children without genetic risk. A reanalysis was conducted of 5 randomized controlled trials of Incredible Years involving 280 clinically affected children 3 to 8 years of age for whom a family psychiatric history of externalizing behavior in first- and second-degree relatives was ascertained from at least 1 parent. Incredible Years equally benefitted children with CD with and without family psychiatric histories of externalizing behavior. Family psychiatric history of externalizing behavior and parental depressive symptomatology predicted greater severity of CD symptomatology at baseline. The beneficial effects of IY are evident in children with CD, irrespective of whether their conditions are more or less attributable to inherited susceptibility to enduring antisocial syndromes. A next phase of research should address whether earlier implementation of group-based education for parents of young children at increased familial risk for antisocial behavior syndromes-before the development of disruptive patterns of behavior-would result in even more pronounced effects and thereby constitute a cost-effective, targeted, preventive intervention for CD. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  11. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  12. Risk assessment tools to identify women with increased risk of osteoporotic fracture. Complexity or simplicity?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rubin, Katrine Hass; Friis-Holmberg, Teresa; Hermann, Anne Pernille

    2013-01-01

    A huge number of risk assessment tools have been developed. Far from all have been validated in external studies, more of them have absence of methodological and transparent evidence and few are integrated in national guidelines. Therefore, we performed a systematic review to provide an overview...... of existing valid and reliable risk assessment tools for prediction of osteoporotic fractures. Additionally, we aimed to determine if the performance each tool was sufficient for practical use and lastly to examine whether the complexity of the tools influenced their discriminative power. We searched Pub......Med, Embase and Cochrane databases for papers and evaluated these with respect to methodological quality using the QUADAS checklist. A total of 48 tools were identified, 20 had been externally validated, however only 6 tools had been tested more than once in a population-based setting with acceptable...

  13. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  14. Risk of Fatal Cerebrovascular Accidents after External Beam Radiation Therapy for Early Stage Glottic Larynx Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swisher-McClure, Samuel; Mitra, Nandita; Lin, Alexander; Ahn, Peter; Wan, Fei; O’Malley, Bert; Weinstein, Gregory S.; Bekelman, Justin E.

    2013-01-01

    Background This study compared the risk of fatal cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) in patients with early stage glottic larynx cancer receiving surgery or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT). Methods and Materials Using a competing risks survival analysis, we compared the risk of death due to CVA among patients with early stage glottic larynx cancer receiving surgery or EBRT in the SEER database. Results The cumulative incidence of fatal CVA at 15 years was higher in patients receiving EBRT (2.8 %; 95% CI 2.3%–3.4%) compared to surgery (1.5 %; 95% CI 0.8 %–2.3%, p= 0.024). In multivariable competing risks regression models, EBRT remained associated with an increased risk of fatal CVA compared to surgery (adjusted HR 1.75; 95% CI 1.04–2.96, p= 0.037). Conclusion Treatment of early stage glottic larynx cancer with EBRT was associated with a small increase in the risk of late fatal CVA events relative to surgery. PMID:23595858

  15. Leading internal and external sources of credit risk in the top South African banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tankiso Moloi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed at identifying the leading credit risk indicators in the South African banking context as well as the development of an integrated leading credit risk indicator model. A content analysis was used as a data extraction methodology and structural equation modelling was used as a data analysis methodology. The results obtained indicated that utilising the structural equation modelling, gross savings, and prime overdraft rates, number of judgements, business insolvencies and unemployment rates were formulated as leading economic and market (external indicators of credit risk in the South African banking context. Similarly, utilising the principal component analysis, bank asset quality, bank asset concentration as well as bank trading and hedging activities were formulated as leading bank specific (internal indicators of credit risk in the South African banking context. The Integrated Leading Credit Risk Indicator Model (ICRIM was formulated utilising the accepted leading credit risk indicators. The ICRIM parameters were benchmarked against the generally accepted fit indices such as the RMSEA, comparative fit (baseline comparison as well as the Hoelter and its results output were found to be consistent with these generally accepted fit indices

  16. Internal versus External Assessment in Vocational Qualifications: A Commentary on the Government's Reforms in England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitello, Sylvia; Williamson, Joanna

    2017-01-01

    The distinction between external assessment and internal assessment underpins a major reform to vocational qualifications underway in England. To be approved by the Department for Education, vocational qualifications must now include a minimum proportion of external assessment, regardless of subject. This paper discusses the nature and…

  17. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  18. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  19. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  20. Corrosion Risk of Reinforced Concrete Structure Arising from Internal and External Chloride

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Kim

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The corrosion risk of internal chloride and external chloride from three different exposure conditions was evaluated. The initiation of corrosion was detected by monitoring the galvanic current between cathode metal and embedded steel. The chloride threshold was determined by measuring the corrosion rate of steel by the polarization technique for internal chloride and the chloride profiling test for external chloride. As the result, the initiation of corrosion was accelerated with a cyclic wet/dry condition, compared to the totally wet condition. In addition, it was found that an increase of the drying ratio in the exposure condition resulted in an increase of corrosion rate after initiation. The threshold level of external chloride ranged from 0.2 to 0.3% weight by cement and internal chloride shows higher range, equated to 1.59–3.10%. Based on these data, the chloride penetration with exposure condition was predicted to determine the service life of reinforced concrete structure.

  1. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  2. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  3. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  4. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  5. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  6. Unlocking the talus by eversion limits medial ankle injury risk during external rotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Button, Keith D; Wei, Feng; Haut, Roger C

    2015-10-15

    Eversion prior to excessive external foot rotation has been shown to predispose the anterior tibiofibular ligament (ATiFL) to failure, yet protect the anterior deltoid ligament (ADL) from failure despite high levels of foot rotation. The purpose of the current study was to measure the rotations of both the subtalar and talocrural joints during foot external rotation at sub-failure levels in either a neutral or a pre-everted position as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms of injury in previous studies. Fourteen (seven pairs) cadaver lower extremities were externally rotated 20° in either a pre-everted or neutral configuration, without producing injury. Motion capture was performed to track the tibia, talus, and calcaneus motions, and a joint coordinate system was used to analyze motions of the two joints. While talocrural joint rotation was greater in the neutral ankle (13.3±2.0° versus 10.5±2.7°, p=0.006), subtalar joint rotation was greater in the pre-everted ankle (2.4±1.9° versus 1.1±1.0°, p=0.014). Overall, the talocrural joint rotated more than the subtalar joint (11.9±2.8° versus 1.8±1.6°, p<0.001). It was proposed that the calcaneus and talus 'lock' in a neutral position, but 'unlock' when the ankle is everted prior to rotation. This locking/unlocking mechanism could be responsible for an increased subtalar rotation, but decreased talocrural rotation when the ankle is pre-everted, protecting the ADL from failure. This study may provide information valuable to the study of external rotation kinematics and injury risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Current established risk assessment methodologies and tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, Dan; Hartel, Pieter H.; Pieters, Wolter; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2013-01-01

    The technology behind information systems evolves at an exponential rate, while at the same time becoming more and more ubiquitous. This brings with it an implicit rise in the average complexity of systems as well as the number of external interactions. In order to allow a proper assessment of the

  8. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  9. Assessment and exploitation of energy-related externalities in the industrial sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diakoulaki, D.; Mirasgedis, S.; Tourkolias, C.

    2007-01-01

    The scope of this paper is to comparatively evaluate the effectiveness of alternative policy measures in reducing impacts from atmospheric pollution generated from industrial energy use. The evaluation procedure relies on the assessment of energy-related externalities by exploiting the methodology developed in the framework of the ExternE project. The analysis focuses on 2 industrial units located in the Greater Athens area and examines three types of abatement measures that can be used independently of the extent energy saving or end-of-pipe emission reduction measures are used: substitution of fuel oil with natural gas, relocation of the units several hundreds of kilometers far from Athens and increase of stack height in the same site. It results that the use of natural gas is by far the most effective among these measures, leading to a reduction of more than 90% of both local and regional damages. The relative effectiveness of the examined measures does not change if the significant uncertainties associated with the accounting procedure are taken into account, while inclusion of the external cost due to greenhouse gases emissions is further accentuating the advantages of natural gas. Moreover, it is shown that the quantifiable energy-related external costs of a single industrial product, may be very low compared to the corresponding private costs, but they sum up to significantly high damages to society if we take into account the total energy consumption in the industrial sector

  10. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  11. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  12. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  13. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  14. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  15. External validation of prognostic models to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in one Dutch cohort: prospective multicentre cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamain-de Ruiter, Marije; Kwee, Anneke; Naaktgeboren, Christiana A; de Groot, Inge; Evers, Inge M; Groenendaal, Floris; Hering, Yolanda R; Huisjes, Anjoke J M; Kirpestein, Cornel; Monincx, Wilma M; Siljee, Jacqueline E; Van 't Zelfde, Annewil; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Vankan-Buitelaar, Simone A; Vonk, Mariska A A W; Wiegers, Therese A; Zwart, Joost J; Franx, Arie; Moons, Karel G M; Koster, Maria P H

    2016-08-30

     To perform an external validation and direct comparison of published prognostic models for early prediction of the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus, including predictors applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy.  External validation of all published prognostic models in large scale, prospective, multicentre cohort study.  31 independent midwifery practices and six hospitals in the Netherlands.  Women recruited in their first trimester (diabetes mellitus of any type were excluded.  Discrimination of the prognostic models was assessed by the C statistic, and calibration assessed by calibration plots.  3723 women were included for analysis, of whom 181 (4.9%) developed gestational diabetes mellitus in pregnancy. 12 prognostic models for the disorder could be validated in the cohort. C statistics ranged from 0.67 to 0.78. Calibration plots showed that eight of the 12 models were well calibrated. The four models with the highest C statistics included almost all of the following predictors: maternal age, maternal body mass index, history of gestational diabetes mellitus, ethnicity, and family history of diabetes. Prognostic models had a similar performance in a subgroup of nulliparous women only. Decision curve analysis showed that the use of these four models always had a positive net benefit.  In this external validation study, most of the published prognostic models for gestational diabetes mellitus show acceptable discrimination and calibration. The four models with the highest discriminative abilities in this study cohort, which also perform well in a subgroup of nulliparous women, are easy models to apply in clinical practice and therefore deserve further evaluation regarding their clinical impact. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  16. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  17. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  18. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  19. [Certification assessment and quality and risk management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papin-Morardet, Maud

    2018-03-01

    Organised by the French National Health Authority (HAS), certification is an external assessment process which is obligatory for all public and private health facilities, whatever their size or activity. The aim is to independently evaluate the quality of the health care provision of hospitals and clinics in France. This article looks at the investigation methods and the procedure used during the certification assessment of Henri Mondor University Hospitals in 2016. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  20. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  1. Pesticide Environmental Accounting: A method for assessing the external costs of individual pesticide applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leach, A.W.; Mumford, J.D.

    2008-01-01

    The Pesticide Environmental Accounting (PEA) tool provides a monetary estimate of environmental and health impacts per hectare-application for any pesticide. The model combines the Environmental Impact Quotient method and a methodology for absolute estimates of external pesticide costs in UK, USA and Germany. For many countries resources are not available for intensive assessments of external pesticide costs. The model converts external costs of a pesticide in the UK, USA and Germany to Mediterranean countries. Economic and policy applications include estimating impacts of pesticide reduction policies or benefits from technologies replacing pesticides, such as sterile insect technique. The system integrates disparate data and approaches into a single logical method. The assumptions in the system provide transparency and consistency but at the cost of some specificity and precision, a reasonable trade-off for a method that provides both comparative estimates of pesticide impacts and area-based assessments of absolute impacts. - A method to estimate the external costs of a pesticide application based on the ecotoxicology, environmental behaviour and application rate of an active ingredient

  2. 2nd International external quality control assessment for the molecular diagnosis of dengue infections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Domingo

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Currently dengue viruses (DENV pose an increasing threat to over 2.5 billion people in over 100 tropical and sub-tropical countries worldwide. International air travel is facilitating rapid global movement of DENV, increasing the risk of severe dengue epidemics by introducing different serotypes. Accurate diagnosis is critical for early initiation of preventive measures. Different reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR methods are available, which should be evaluated and standardized. Epidemiological and laboratory-based surveillance is required to monitor and guide dengue prevention and control programmes, i.e., by mosquito control or possible vaccination (as soon as an effective and safe vaccine becomes available. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of the external quality assurance (EQA study described is to assess the efficiency and accuracy of dengue molecular diagnosis methods applied by expert laboratories. STUDY DESIGN: A panel of 12 human plasma samples was distributed and tested for DENV-specific RNA. The panel comprised 9 samples spiked with different DENV serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4, including 10-fold dilution series of DENV-1 and DENV-3. Two specificity controls consisted of a sample with a pool of 4 other flaviviruses and a sample with chikungunya virus. A negative control sample was also included. RESULTS: Thirty-seven laboratories (from Europe, Middle East Asia, Asia, the Americas/Caribbean, and Africa participated in this EQA study, and reports including 46 sets of results were returned. Performance among laboratories varied according to methodologies used. Only 5 (10.9% data sets met all criteria with optimal performance, and 4 (8.7% with acceptable performance, while 37 (80.4% reported results showed the need for improvement regarding accomplishment of dengue molecular diagnosis. Failures were mainly due to lack of sensitivity and the presence of false positives. CONCLUSIONS: The EQA provides information on each laboratory

  3. EFSA Scientific Committee; Scientific Opinion on Risk Assessment Terminology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Tine

    of improving the expression and communication of risk and/or uncertainties in the selected opinions. The Scientific Committee concluded that risk assessment terminology is not fully harmonised within EFSA. In part this is caused by sectoral legislation defining specific terminology and international standards......The Scientific Committee of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) reviewed the use of risk assessment terminology within its Scientific Panels. An external report, commissioned by EFSA, analysed 219 opinions published by the Scientific Committee and Panels to recommend possible ways......, the Scientific Committee concludes that particular care must be taken that the principles of CAC, OIE or IPPC are followed strictly. EFSA Scientific Panels should identify which specific approach is most useful in dealing with their individual mandates. The Scientific Committee considered detailed aspects...

  4. Prevalence, outcome, and women’s experiences of external cephalic version in a low-risk population.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijnders, M.; Offerhaus, P.; Dommelen, P. van; Wiegers, T.; Buitendijk, S.

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Until recently, external cephalic version to prevent breech presentation at birth was not widely accepted. The objective of our study was to assess the prevalence, outcomes, and women's experiences of external cephalic version to improve the implementation of the procedure in the

  5. ENTERPRISE OPERATION PLANNING IN THE CONDITIONS OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTERNAL AND INTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Titov V. V.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Optimization of the enterprise activity planning taking into account the risk and uncertainty of the external and internal environment is a complex scientific and methodological problem. Its solution is important for the planning practice. Therefore, the relevance of this research topic is beyond doubt. Planning is based on the use of a multilevel system of models. At the top level, the achievement of key strategic indicators is ensured by the development and implementation of innovations, mainly related to the planning of the release of new high-tech products. However, it is at this level that the risks and uncertainties have the greatest impact on the planning processes for the development, production and marketing of new products. In the scientific literature it is proposed to use the stochastic graphs with returns for this purpose. This idea is also supported in this work. However, the implementation of such an idea requires additional methodological developments and quantitative calculations. The coordination of strategic decisions with tactical plans is based on the idea of eliminating the economic and other risks associated with the economic activity of the enterprise in tactical planning, by creating the stochastic reserves based on the implementation of additional innovations that ensure the receipt of above-target sales volumes, profits and other indicators of the strategic plan. The organization of operational management of production is represented by an iterative, sliding process (reducing risks in production, which is realized taking into account the limitations of tactical control.

  6. Certification of health care organisations, assessment of professional practices and external radiotherapy;Certification des etablissements de sante, evaluation des pratiques professionnelles et radiotherapie externe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abdelmoumene, N.; Le Moign, R. [Haute Autorite de Sante (HAS), 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-12-15

    In France, accreditation of health care organisations (HCOs) is mandatory every 4 years. It is based on a systemic approach and, since 2004, includes professional practice appraisal (EPP) against good practice guidelines. However, following an incident in Epinal, a new quality assurance criterion was introduced in 2007 for external radiotherapy (ERT) on top of the annual inspection of patient radiation protection by the Nuclear Safety Authority. In the accreditation procedure starting January 2010, ERT work organisation will come under 'high-risk activity' (criterion 26b) and radio-vigilance will be included in the adverse events reporting system (8i). In addition, ERT will have to comply with many generic criteria on quality and safety improvement. For example, practice appraisal of all clinical activities will become routine. Thus, besides self-assessment against criteria 26b and 8i, ERT professionals will have report the impact of their quality improvement actions on patient care. They will be able to freely choose the area for improvement, as long as it is in line with the HCO's overall quality and safety plan. In oncology, multidisciplinary team meetings for deciding on the treatment plan, as well as mortality and morbidity meetings providing feedback, are compulsory (28a). Appraisal of appropriateness of care (28b) and indicator-based practice appraisal (28c) complete the process. In conclusion, the generic practice appraisal approach that is part of the French HCO accreditation procedure can contribute toward improving health care and education, but it has not been designed for in-depth assessment of complex, multidisciplinary clinical practice such as ERT. Such assessment requires a specific clinical audit and specialized auditors. (authors)

  7. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  8. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  9. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  10. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  11. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  12. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  13. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  14. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  15. Externalities assessment of a coal power plant in the forest ecosystems in Valdecaballeros Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laforga, P.; Planas, B.

    1995-01-01

    The book is divided in two parts. The first one analyzes the critical load and level concepts, and the methodological framework for Environmental Impact Statement (E.L.S.). In line with this, critical loads and levels represent the system vulnerability and excedances of critical values identify zones where impacts could occur. These are evaluated according to a set of criteria, talking into account present and future land use, their socio cultural interest, economic value of their natural resources and ecological quality of the whole system. In addition to Environment Impact Statement of air pollutants, the proposed formalism allows assessing the external cost of gaseous emission. The second part applies the developed ideas to a practical case: a hypothetical coal power plant on Valdecaballeros (Badajoz, Spain). Environmental impact on forestry ecosystems is studied on a 70 km radius area around the plant. The assessment of the external costs rely on yield losses associated with gaseous emission of the hypothetical plant. (Author) 100 refs

  16. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  17. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  18. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  19. Radiation risk assessment of reprocessed uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardenas, Hugo R.; Perez, Aldo E.; Luna, Manuel F.; Becerra, Fabian A.

    1999-01-01

    Reprocessed uranium contains 232 U, which is not found in nature, as well as 234 U which is present in higher proportion than in natural uranium. Both isotopes modify the radiological properties of the material. The paper evaluates the increase of the internal and external radiation risk on the base of experimental data and theoretical calculations. It also suggests measures to be taken in the production of fuel elements with slightly enriched uranium.The radiation risk of reprocessed uranium is directly proportional to the content of 232 U and 234 U as well as to the aging time of the material

  20. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  1. Assessment of occupational exposure due to external sources of radiation. Safety guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    Occupational exposure to ionizing radiation can occur in a range of industries, medical institutions, educational and research establishments and nuclear fuel cycle facilities. Adequate radiation protection of workers is essential for the safe and acceptable use of radiation, radioactive materials and nuclear energy. The three Safety Guides on occupational radiation protection are jointly sponsored by the IAEA and the International Labour Office. The Agency gratefully acknowledges the contribution of the European Commission to the development of the present Safety Guide. The present Safety Guide addresses the assessment of exposure due to external sources of radiation in the workplace. Such exposure can result from a number of sources within a workplace, and the monitoring of workers and the workplace in such situations is an integral part of any occupational radiation protection programme. The assessment of exposure due to external radiation sources depends critically upon knowledge of the radiation type and energy and the conditions of exposure. The present Safety Guide reflects the major changes over the past decade in international practice in external dose assessment

  2. Assessment of occupational exposure due to external sources of radiation. Safety guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Occupational exposure to ionizing radiation can occur in a range of industries, medical institutions, educational and research establishments and nuclear fuel cycle facilities. Adequate radiation protection of workers is essential for the safe and acceptable use of radiation, radioactive materials and nuclear energy. The three Safety Guides on occupational radiation protection are jointly sponsored by the IAEA and the International Labour Office. The Agency gratefully acknowledges the contribution of the European Commission to the development of the present Safety Guide. The present Safety Guide addresses the assessment of exposure due to external sources of radiation in the workplace. Such exposure can result from a number of sources within a workplace, and the monitoring of workers and the workplace in such situations is an integral part of any occupational radiation protection programme. The assessment of exposure due to external radiation sources depends critically upon knowledge of the radiation type and energy and the conditions of exposure. The present Safety Guide reflects the major changes over the past decade in international practice in external dose assessment

  3. Assessment of occupational exposure due to external sources of radiation. Safety guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    Occupational exposure to ionizing radiation can occur in a range of industries, medical institutions, educational and research establishments and nuclear fuel cycle facilities. Adequate radiation protection of workers is essential for the safe and acceptable use of radiation, radioactive materials and nuclear energy. The three Safety Guides on occupational radiation protection are jointly sponsored by the IAEA and the International Labour Office. The Agency gratefully acknowledges the contribution of the European Commission to the development of the present Safety Guide. The present Safety Guide addresses the assessment of exposure due to external sources of radiation in the workplace. Such exposure can result from a number of sources within a workplace, and the monitoring of workers and the workplace in such situations is an integral part of any occupational radiation protection programme. The assessment of exposure due to external radiation sources depends critically upon knowledge of the radiation type and energy and the conditions of exposure. The present Safety Guide reflects the major changes over the past decade in international practice in external dose assessment

  4. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  5. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  6. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  7. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  8. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  9. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palecek, M [Occupational Safety Research Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1992-07-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems.

  10. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palecek, M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  11. Comparison between external beam radiotherapy (70 Gy/74 Gy) and permanent interstitial brachytherapy in 890 intermediate risk prostate cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldner, Gregor; Pötter, Richard; Battermann, Jan J.; Kirisits, Christian; Schmid, Maximilian P.; Sljivic, Samir; Vulpen, Marco van

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Aim of this analysis was to compare biochemical no evidence of disease (bNED) rates in intermediate-risk prostate-cancer patients treated at two centres of excellence using different approaches: permanent interstitial brachytherapy (BT) and external beam radiotherapy (EBRT). Materials and methods: A total of 890 intermediate-risk prostate-cancer patients, who were treated from 1998 to 2008, were identified in the two local databases. In Utrecht 601 patients received I-125 BT applying a dose of 144 Gy. In Vienna 289 patients were treated by EBRT, applying a local dose of 70 Gy in 105 patients and 74 Gy in 184 patients. bNED-rates (Phoenix-definition) were assessed. Results: Median follow-up was 48 months (1–150). 5-Year actuarial bNED-rates were 81% for BT-patients and 75% for EBRT-patients (67% for 70 Gy and 82% for 74 Gy), respectively. In univariate analysis no difference between BT and EBRT could be detected. In multivariate analysis including tumour-stage, GleasonScore, initial PSA, hormonal therapy and treatment-centre (BT vs. EBRT) only T-stage, GleasonScore and PSA were found to be significant. Additional analysis including radiation dose showed the same outcome. Conclusions: Intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients treated by permanent interstitial brachytherapy show biochemical tumour-control-rates which are comparable to EBRT of 74 Gy.

  12. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  13. Thyroid cancer in the Marshallese: relative risk of short-lived internal emitters and external radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lessard, E.T.; Brill, A.B.; Adams, W.H.

    1985-01-01

    In a study of the comparative effects of internal versus external irradiation of the thyroid in young people, we determined that the dose from internal irradiation of the thyroid with short-lived internal emitters produced several times less thyroid cancer than did the same dose of radiation given externally. We determined this finding for a group of 85 Marshall Islands children, who were less than 10 years of age at the time of exposure and who were accidentially exposed to internal and external thyroid radiation at an average level of 1400 rad. The external risk coefficient ranged between 2.5 and 4.9 cancers per million person-rad-years at risk, and thus, from our computations, the internal risk coefficient for the Marshallese children was estimated to range between 1.0 and 1.4 cancers per million person-rad-years at risk. In contrast, for individual more than 10 years of age at the time of exposure, the dose from internal irradiation of the thyroid with short-lived internal emitters produced several times more thyroid cancer than did the same dose of radiation given externally. The external risk coefficients for the older age groups were reported in the literature to be in the range of 1.0 to 3.3 cancers per million person-rad-years-at risk. We computed internal risk coefficients of 3.3 to 8.1 cancers per million person-rad-years at risk for adolescent and adult groups. This higher sensitivity to cancer induction in the exposed adolescents and adults, is different from that seen in other exposed groups. 14 refs., 8 tabs

  14. Thyroid cancer in the Marshallese: relative risk of short-lived internal emitters and external radiation exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lessard, E.T.; Brill, A.B.; Adams, W.H.

    1986-01-01

    In a study of the comparative effects of internal versus external irradiation of the thyroid in young people, we determined that the dose from internal irradiation of the thyroid with short-lived internal emitters produced several times less thyroid cancer than did the same dose of radiation given externally. The authors determined this finding for a group of 85 Marshall Islands children, who were less than 10 years of age at the time of exposure and who were accidentally exposed to internal and external thyroid radiation at an average level of 1400 rad. The external risk coefficient ranged between 2.5 and 4.9 cancers per million person-rad-years at risk, and thus, from our computations, the internal risk coefficient for the Marshallese children was estimated to range between 1.0 and 1.4 cancers per million person-rad-years at risk. In contrast, for individuals more than 10 years of age at the time of exposure, the dose from internal irradiation of the thyroid with short-lived internal emitters produced several times more thyroid cancer than did the same dose of radiation given externally. The external risk coefficients for the older age groups were reported in the above literature to be in the range of 1.0 to 3.3 cancers per million person-rad-years-at risk. The authors computed internal risk coefficients of 3.3 to 8.1 cancers per million person-rad-years at risk for adolescent and adult groups. This higher sensitivity to cancer induction in the exposed adolescents and adults, is different from that seen in other exposed groups. The small number of cancers in the exposed population and the influence of increased levels of TSH, nonuniform irradiation of the thyroid, and thyroid cell killing at high dose make it difficult to draw firm conclusions from these studies. 14 references, 8 tables

  15. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  16. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  17. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  18. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  20. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  1. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  2. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  3. Improvement of the assessment of the external costs of severe nuclear accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markandya, A.; Dale, N.; Schneider, T.

    1998-12-01

    The first part of this document presents a bibliographic study on the accidents costs. The second part is devoted to an empirical study realized in Spain, concerning the risk assessment by experts. The third part proposes an approach in terms of hope of utility for the aversion calculation facing the major risks. The last part presents the probabilities transformations taking into account the human perception of the risk. (A.L.B.)

  4. An assessment of the Pacific Regional Cancer Coalition: outcomes and implications of a regional coalition internal and external assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sy, Angela U; Heckert, Karen A; Buenconsejo-Lum, Lee; Hedson, Johnny; Tamang, Suresh; Palafox, Neal

    2011-11-01

    The Pacific Regional Cancer Coalition (PRCC) provides regional leadership in the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) to implement the Regional Comprehensive Control Plan: 2007-2012, and to evaluate its coalition and partnerships. The Pacific Center of Excellence in the Elimination of Disparities (CEED), aims to reduce cancer disparities and conducts evaluation activities relevant to cancer prevention and control in the USAPI. The PRCC Self (internal) and Partner (external) Assessments were conducted to assess coalition functioning, regional and national partnerships, sustainability, and the role of regionalism for integrating all chronic disease prevention and control in the Pacific. Self-administered questionnaires and key informant telephone interviews with PRCC members (N=20), and representatives from regional and national partner organizations were administered (N=26). Validated multi item measures using 5-point scales on coalition and partnership characteristics were used. Chronbach's alphas and averages for the measures were computed. Internal coalition measures: satisfaction (4.2, SD=0.48) communication (4.0, SD=0.56), respect (4.0, SD=0.60) were rated more highly than external partnership measures: resource sharing (3.5, SD=0.74), regionalism (3.9, SD=0.47), use of findings (3.9, SD=0.50). The PRCC specifically identified its level of "collaboration" with external partners including Pacific CEED. External partners identified its partnership with the PRCC in the "coalition" stage. PRCC members and external partners are satisfied with their partnerships. All groups should continue to focus on building collaboration with partners to reflect a truly regional approach to sustain the commitment, the coalitions and the programming to reduce cancer in the USAPI. PRCC and partners should also work together to integrate all chronic disease prevention and control efforts in the Pacific.

  5. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  6. Judicial aspects in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukes, R.

    1977-01-01

    Decisions of administrative authorities concerning the permission to use fissile material contain a prognosis about the probability of damage which may be caused by using this material. The judicial criteria used in order to determine the probability of such a damage occurring can be improved by risk analysis. This will not, of course, reduce administrative decisions to simple 'yes-or-no decisions', but the calculation of probabilities will gain more exactness. (orig.) [de

  7. Development of margin assessment methodology of decay heat removal function against external hazards. (2) Tornado PRA methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishino, Hiroyuki; Kurisaka, Kenichi; Yamano, Hidemasa

    2014-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) for external events has been recognized as an important safety assessment method after the TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station accident. The PRA should be performed not only for earthquake and tsunami which are especially key events in Japan, but also the PRA methodology should be developed for the other external hazards (e.g. tornado). In this study, the methodology was developed for Sodium-cooled Fast Reactors paying attention to that the ambient air is their final heat sink for removing decay heat under accident conditions. First, tornado hazard curve was estimated by using data recorded in Japan. Second, important structures and components for decay heat removal were identified and an event tree resulting in core damage was developed in terms of wind load and missiles (i.e. steel pipes, boards and cars) caused by a tornado. Main damage cause for important structures and components is the missiles and the tornado missiles that can reach those components and structures placed on high elevations were identified, and the failure probabilities of the components and structures against the tornado missiles were calculated as a product of two probabilities: i.e., a probability for the missiles to enter the intake or outtake in the decay heat removal system, and a probability of failure caused by the missile impacts. Finally, the event tree was quantified. As a result, the core damage frequency was enough lower than 10 -10 /ry. (author)

  8. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  9. Children with co-occurring anxiety and externalizing disorders: family risks and implications for competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Joan P; Brown, Pamela J; Luthar, Suniya S

    2009-10-01

    This study used data from 340 mother-child dyads to examine characteristics of children with co-occurring diagnoses of anxiety and externalizing disorders and compared them with children with a sole diagnosis or no diagnosis. Comparisons were made using 4 child-diagnostic groups: anxiety-only, externalizing-only, co-occurrence, and no-problem groups. Most mothers were characterized by low income and histories of psychiatric diagnoses during the child's lifetime. Analyses using multinomial logistic regressions found the incidence of co-occurring childhood disorders to be significantly linked with maternal affective/anxiety disorders during the child's lifetime. In exploring implications for developmental competence, we found the co-occurrence group to have the lowest level of adaptive functioning among the 4 groups, faring significantly worse than the no-problem group on both academic achievement and intelligence as assessed by standardized tests. Findings underscore the importance of considering co-occurring behavior problems as a distinct phenomenon when examining children's developmental outcomes. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

  10. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of

  11. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: a discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire TG; Stevenson H; Pieters MN; Rennen M; Slob W; Hakkert BC; Nederlandse organisatie voor; CSR; LEO; TNO-ITV

    1998-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute towards further harmonisation of the human health risk assessment. It discusses the development of a formal, harmonised set of default assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed. Options are presented

  12. European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator: External Validation, Variability, and Clinical Significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Gómez, Enrique; Carrasco-Valiente, Julia; Blanca-Pedregosa, Ana; Barco-Sánchez, Beatriz; Fernandez-Rueda, Jose Luis; Molina-Abril, Helena; Valero-Rosa, Jose; Font-Ugalde, Pilar; Requena-Tapia, Maria José

    2017-04-01

    To externally validate the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator (RC) and to evaluate its variability between 2 consecutive prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values. We prospectively catalogued 1021 consecutive patients before prostate biopsy for suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa). The risk of PCa and significant PCa (Gleason score ≥7) from 749 patients was calculated according to ERSPC-RC (digital rectal examination-based version 3 of 4) for 2 consecutive PSA tests per patient. The calculators' predictions were analyzed using calibration plots and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve). Cohen kappa coefficient was used to compare the ability and variability. Of 749 patients, PCa was detected in 251 (33.5%) and significant PCa was detected in 133 (17.8%). Calibration plots showed an acceptable parallelism and similar discrimination ability for both PSA levels with an area under the curve of 0.69 for PCa and 0.74 for significant PCa. The ERSPC showed 226 (30.2%) unnecessary biopsies with the loss of 10 significant PCa. The variability of the RC was 16% for PCa and 20% for significant PCa, and a higher variability was associated with a reduced risk of significant PCa. We can conclude that the performance of the ERSPC-RC in the present cohort shows a high similitude between the 2 PSA levels; however, the RC variability value is associated with a decreased risk of significant PCa. The use of the ERSPC in our cohort detects a high number of unnecessary biopsies. Thus, the incorporation of ERSPC-RC could help the clinical decision to carry out a prostate biopsy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  14. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  15. The assessment and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daglish, J.

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

  16. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    , the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  17. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  18. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  19. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  20. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  1. Determinants of Dermal Exposure Relevant for Exposure Modelling in Regulatory Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, J.; Brouwer, D.H.; Gijsbers, J.H.J.; Links, I.H.M.; Warren, N.; Hemmen, J.J. van

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment of chemicals requires assessment of the exposure levels of workers. In the absence of adequate specific measured data, models are often used to estimate exposure levels. For dermal exposure only a few models exist, which are not validated externally. In the scope of a large European

  2. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  3. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  4. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  5. Subdural hematoma in infants without accidental or nonaccidental injury: benign external hydrocephalus, a risk factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Partha S; Ghosh, Debabrata

    2011-10-01

    Benign external hydrocephalus (BEH) is considered a self-limiting condition in infants. Subdural hematoma (SDH) in infants without a history of trauma indicates nonaccidental injury (NAI). The authors studied whether SDH can complicate BEH without apparent trauma. Out of 45 children younger than 3 years with nontraumatic SDH, 9 (7 boys) with mean age 6 months had BEH as risk factor. Symptoms included increasing head size (8), fussiness, and irritability (3). Three had up-gaze restriction, 1 axial hypotonia, and 6 normal examination. Neuroimaging showed prominent extra-axial spaces; SDH was bilateral (6), subacute (5). Other etiological workup for SDH was negative except NAI in 1. Two required evacuation of SDH and subdural-peritoneal shunt; others managed conservatively. Development was normal in 8 on follow-up. On follow-up imaging of 8, SDH completely resolved in 3, markedly reduced in 3, and remained stable in 2. BEH is a risk factor for SDH in infants, thus not always benign.

  6. Predictive Accuracy of the PanCan Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model -External Validation based on CT from the Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winkler Wille, Mathilde M.; van Riel, Sarah J.; Saghir, Zaigham

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: Lung cancer risk models should be externally validated to test generalizability and clinical usefulness. The Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial (DLCST) is a population-based prospective cohort study, used to assess the discriminative performances of the PanCan models. Methods: From...... the DLCST database, 1,152 nodules from 718 participants were included. Parsimonious and full PanCan risk prediction models were applied to DLCST data, and also coefficients of the model were recalculated using DLCST data. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) were...... used to evaluate risk discrimination. Results: AUCs of 0.826–0.870 were found for DLCST data based on PanCan risk prediction models. In the DLCST, age and family history were significant predictors (p = 0.001 and p = 0.013). Female sex was not confirmed to be associated with higher risk of lung cancer...

  7. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  8. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  9. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  10. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  11. Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

  12. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  13. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  14. Science and judgment in risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants

    .... This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments...

  15. Business managers turn to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Frank

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessments have evolved to help technical managers in nuclear and other industries to design and operate plant with safety in mind. However, they are now developing into the area of business management. (author)

  16. Assessment of health-cost externalities of air pollution at the national level using the EVA model system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandt, J.; Silver, J.D.; Frohn, L.M. (and others)

    2011-07-15

    Air pollution has significant negative impacts on human health and well-being, which entail substantial economic consequences. We have developed an integrated model system, EVA (External Valuation of Air pollution; Frohn et al., 2005; Andersen et al., 2007; Brandt et al., 2010), to assess health-related economic externalities of air pollution resulting from specific emission sources or sectors. The EVA system was initially developed to assess externalities from power production, but in this study it is extended to evaluate costs at the national level from all major emission sectors. In this study, we estimate the impacts and total externality costs from the main emission sectors in Denmark, representing the 10 major SNAP codes. Furthermore, we assess the impacts and externality costs of all emissions simultaneously from the whole of Europe as well as from international ship traffic in general, since this sector seems to be very important but is currently unregulated. (Author)

  17. External validation of scoring systems in risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anchu, Anna Cherian; Mohsina, Subair; Sureshkumar, Sathasivam; Mahalakshmy, T; Kate, Vikram

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to externally validate the four commonly used scoring systems in the risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). Patients of UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h of presentation were stratified prospectively using the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (PRS) >0, complete Rockall score (CRS) >2, Glasgow Blatchford bleeding scores (GBS) >3, and modified GBS (m-GBS) >3 scores. Patients were followed up to 30 days. Prognostic accuracy of the scores was done by comparing areas under curve (AUC) in terms of overall risk stratification, re-bleeding, mortality, need for intervention, and length of hospitalization. One hundred and seventy-five patients were studied. All four scores performed better in the overall risk stratification on AUC [PRS = 0.566 (CI: 0.481-0.651; p-0.043)/CRS = 0.712 (CI: 0.634-0.790); p0.001); m-GBS = 0.802 (CI: 0.734-0.871; pbleed [AUC-0.679 (CI: 0.579-0.780; p = 0.003)]. All the scoring systems except PRS were found to be significantly better in detecting 30-day mortality with a high AUC (CRS = 0.798; p-0.042)/GBS = 0.833; p-0.023); m-GBS = 0.816; p-0.031). All four scores demonstrated significant accuracy in the risk stratification of non-variceal patients; however, only GBS and m-GBS were significant in variceal etiology. Higher cutoff scores achieved better sensitivity/specificity [RS > 0 (50/60.8), CRS > 1 (87.5/50.6), GBS > 7 (88.5/63.3), m-GBS > 7(82.3/72.6)] in the risk stratification. GBS and m-GBS appear to be more valid in risk stratification of UGIB patients in this region. Higher cutoff values achieved better predictive accuracy.

  18. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  19. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  20. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  1. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as

  2. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvin, B.N.

    1996-01-01

    An independent review of all facets of risk management, as it pertains to mergers and acquisitions within the petroleum industry, with no transactional motivation, was provided by a representative of a firm specializing in all phases of risk assessment. The following topics received attention: (1) the forward curve versus industry expectations, (2) investor expectations, (3) financial versus physical transactions, and (4) synthetic debt

  3. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  4. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  5. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  6. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  7. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  8. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  9. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  10. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  11. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  12. The WHO AFRO external quality assessment programme (EQAP: Linking laboratory networks through EQA programmes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debrah I. Boeras

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available External Quality Assessment (EQA surveys performed by the World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO revealed the need for the strengthening of publichealth microbiology laboratories, particularly for testing of epidemic-prone diseases in theAfrican Region. These surveys revealed common issues such as supply chain managementskilled personnel, logistical support and overall lack of quality standards. For sustainableimprovements to health systems as well as global health security, deficiencies identified needto be actively corrected through robust quality assurance programmes and implementation oflaboratory quality management systems. Given all the pathogens of public health importance, an external quality assessment programmewith a focus on vaccine-preventable diseases and emerging and re-emerging dangerouspathogens is important, and should not be stand-alone, but integrated within laboratorynetworks as seen in polio, measles, yellow fever and rubella. In 2015, WHO AFRO collaborated with the US Centers for Disease Control and Preventionthe London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and partners in a series of consultationswith countries and national and regional EQA providers for the development of qualityassurance models to support HIV point-of-care testing and monitoring. These consultationsrevealed similar challenges as seen in the WHO AFRO surveys. WHO AFRO brought forthits experience in implementing quality standards for health programmes, and also openeddiscussions on how lessons learned through such established programmes can be utilised tosupporting and strengthening the introduction of early infant diagnosis of HIV and viralload point-of-care testing. An optimised external quality assessment programme will impact the ability of countries tomeet core capacities, providing improved quality management systems, improving theconfidence of diagnostic network services in Africa, and including capacities to detect eventsof

  13. The WHO AFRO external quality assessment programme (EQAP): Linking laboratory networks through EQA programmes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeras, Debrah I; Peeling, Rosanna W; Onyebujoh, Philip; Yahaya, Ali A; Gumede-Moeletsi, Hieronyma N; Ndihokubwayo, Jean B

    2016-01-01

    External Quality Assessment (EQA) surveys performed by the World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa (WHO AFRO) revealed the need for the strengthening of public health microbiology laboratories, particularly for testing of epidemic-prone diseases in the African Region. These surveys revealed common issues such as supply chain management, skilled personnel, logistical support and overall lack of quality standards. For sustainable improvements to health systems as well as global health security, deficiencies identified need to be actively corrected through robust quality assurance programmes and implementation of laboratory quality management systems. Given all the pathogens of public health importance, an external quality assessment programme with a focus on vaccine-preventable diseases and emerging and re-emerging dangerous pathogens is important, and should not be stand-alone, but integrated within laboratory networks as seen in polio, measles, yellow fever and rubella. In 2015, WHO AFRO collaborated with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and partners in a series of consultations with countries and national and regional EQA providers for the development of quality assurance models to support HIV point-of-care testing and monitoring. These consultations revealed similar challenges as seen in the WHO AFRO surveys. WHO AFRO brought forth its experience in implementing quality standards for health programmes, and also opened discussions on how lessons learned through such established programmes can be utilised to supporting and strengthening the introduction of early infant diagnosis of HIV and viral load point-of-care testing. An optimised external quality assessment programme will impact the ability of countries to meet core capacities, providing improved quality management systems, improving the confidence of diagnostic network services in Africa, and including capacities to detect events

  14. Laboratory diagnosis of the rare anaemias: external quality assessment benefits patient care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara De La Salle

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Since its introduction in the 1960s, external quality assessment has developed to become an essential component of the quality management system of the diagnostic laboratory. External quality assessment provides a long term, retrospective view of laboratory performance, demonstrating the competence of the laboratory to others. The ENERCA project (the European Network for Rare and Congenital Anaemias has established a list of core laboratory tests that are used in the diagnosis of rare and congenital anaemias, which has been used as the basis for questionnaires to laboratories, to establish the use and quality assurance of diagnostic testing in the congenital and rare anaemias, and to European EQA providers for services in this key area. In general, the provision of EQA for rare and congenital anaemias is widely variable with little provision for the very rare disorders. For the more common congenital anaemias, such as the haemoglobinopathies and thalassaemias, provision is better but there is variation in aspects of the scheme design, especially the frequency of distribution. Where laboratories did not take part in EQA for individual tests, or there was no EQA available, a desire to participate was expressed in 66% (102/154 of cases. The provision of external quality assessment (EQA services for rare disorders is a challenge. For many of these conditions, the number of patients in any one member state is very small with only a few laboratories providing diagnostic testing. In these cases, the development of pan-European or cross-border EQA may be the only means by which standardisation of methods and results can be achieved. An EQA survey of 243 laboratories for performance in Hb A2 quantification showed encouraging results in that there was a clear differentiation in the results from a beta Thalassaemia carrier and an individual with no evidence of Thalassaemia; however, a bias was observed between different methods of measurement.

  15. 77 FR 56202 - Notification of an External Peer Review Meeting for the Draft Framework for Human Health Risk...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-12

    ... Meeting for the Draft Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making AGENCY: U.S... panel of experts to review the draft document, Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform... for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making will be held on October 9, 2012, from 9:00...

  16. The experience of 3 years of external quality assessment of preimplantation genetic diagnosis for cystic fibrosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deans, Zandra; Fiorentino, Francesco; Biricik, Anil; Traeger-Synodinos, Joanne; Moutou, Céline; De Rycke, Martine; Renwick, Pamela; SenGupta, Sioban; Goossens, Veerle; Harton, Gary

    2013-01-01

    Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) was first performed over 20 years ago and has become an accepted part of genetic testing and assisted reproduction worldwide. The techniques and protocols necessary to carry out genetic testing at the single-cell level can be difficult to master and have been developed independently by the laboratories worldwide offering preimplantation testing. These factors indicated the need for an external quality assessment (EQA) scheme for monogenic disease PGD. Toward this end, the European Society for Human Reproduction and Embryology came together with United Kingdom National External Quality Assessment Services for Molecular Genetics, to create a pilot EQA scheme followed by practical EQA schemes for all interested parties. Here, we detail the development of the pilot scheme as well as development and findings from the practical (clinical) schemes that have followed. Results were generally acceptable and there was marked improvement in results and laboratory scores for those labs that participated in multiple schemes. Data from the first three schemes indicate that the EQA scheme is working as planned and has helped laboratories improve their techniques and result reporting. The EQA scheme for monogenic PGD will continue to be developed to offer assessment for other monogenic disorders. PMID:23150080

  17. The Impact of Organizational Structure on Internal and External Integration: An empirical, cross-regional assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xenophon Koufteros

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We examine the effects of organizational structure on cross-functional integration, supplier integration, and customer integration and assess whether such effects vary by geographical region. Specifically, we investigate the impact of centralization, formalization, and complexity on both internal (cross-functional and external (supplier, customer integration. Relationships are examined across Western and East Asian environments using data collected from 238 manufacturing plants in eight countries. We find that structural features have differing impacts on cross-functional, supplier, and customer integration, and these effects vary across geographical regions.

  18. External quality assessment on detection of hepatitis C virus RNA in clinical laboratories of China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Lu-nan; Zhang, Rui; Shen, Zi-yu; Chen, Wen-xiang; Li, Jin-ming

    2008-06-05

    As with many studies carried out in European countries, a quality assurance program has been established by the National Center for Clinical Laboratories in China (NCCL). The results showed that the external quality assessment significantly improves laboratory performance for quantitative evaluation of hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA. Serum panels were delivered twice annually to the clinical laboratories which performed HCV RNA detection in China. Each panel made up of 5 coded samples. All laboratories were requested to carry out the detection within the required time period and report on testing results which contained qualitative and/or quantitative test findings, reagents used and relevant information about apparatus. All the positive samples were calibrated against the first International Standard for HCV RNA in a collaborative study and the range of comparison target value (TG) designated as +/- 0.5 log. The numbers of laboratories reporting on qualitative testing results for the first and second time external quality assessment were 168 and 167 in the year of 2003 and increased to 209 and 233 in 2007; the numbers of laboratories reporting on quantitative testing results were 134 and 147 in 2003 and rose to 340 and 339 in 2007. Deviation between the mean value for quantitative results at home in 2003 and the target value was above 0.5 log, which was comparatively high. By 2007, the target value was close to the national average except for the low concentrated specimens (10(3) IU/ml). The percentage of results within the range of GM +/- 0.5 log(10) varied from 8.2% to 93.5%. Some laboratories had some difficulties in the exact quantification of the lowest (3.00 log IU/ml) as well as of the highest viral levels (6.37 log IU/ml) values, very near to the limits of the dynamic range of the assays. The comparison of these results with the previous study confirms that a regular participation in external quality assessment (EQA) assures the achievement of a high

  19. Assessment of private economic benefits and positive environmental externalities of tea plantation in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Hui; Ren, Xiaoyi; Li, Shiyu; Wu, Xu; Cheng, Hao; Xu, Bin; Gu, Baojing; Yang, Guofu; Peng, Changhui; Ge, Ying; Chang, Jie

    2013-10-01

    Tea plantations are rapidly expanding in China and other countries in the tropical and subtropical zones, driven by relatively high private economic benefit. However, the impact of tea plantations on the regional environment, including ecosystem services and disservices are unclear. In this study, we developed an assessment framework for determining the private economic benefits and environmental externalities (the algebraic sum of the regulating services and disservices) of tea plantations in China. Our results showed that tea plantations provided private economic benefits of 5,652 yuan ha(-1) year(-1) (7.6 yuan = 1 USD in 2007) for tea farmers, plus positive environmental externalities of 6,054 yuan ha(-1) year(-1) for the society. The environmental externalities were calculated as the sum of the value of four regulating services, including carbon sequestration (392 yuan ha(-1) year(-1)); soil retention (72 yuan ha(-1) year(-1)); soil fertility protection (3,189 yuan ha(-1) year(-1)) and water conservation (2,685 yuan ha(-1) year(-1)), and three disservices, including CO2 emission (-39 yuan ha(-1) year(-1)), N2O emission (-137 yuan ha(-1) year(-1)) and nonpoint source pollution (-108 yuan ha(-1) year(-1)). Before the private optimal level, the positive environmental externalities can be maintained by private economic benefits; if a social optimal level is required, subsidies from government are necessary.

  20. Recent case studies and advancements in probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1985-01-01

    During the period from 1977 to 1984, Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc., had the lead in preparing several full scope probabilistic risk assessments for electric utilities. Five of those studies are discussed from the point of view of advancements and lessons learned. The objective and trend of these studies is toward utilization of the risk models by the plant owners as risk management tools. Advancements that have been made are in presentation ad documentation of the PRAs, generation of more understandable plant level information, and improvements in methodology to facilitate technology transfer. Specific areas of advancement are in the treatment of such issues as dependent failures, human interaction, and the uncertainty in the source term. Lessons learned cover a wide spectrum and include the importance of plant specific models for meaningful risk management, the role of external events in risk, the sensitivity of contributors to choice of risk index, and the very important finding that the public risk is extremely small. The future direction of PRA is to establish less dependence on experts for in-plant application. Computerizing the PRAs such that they can be accessed on line and interactively is the key

  1. Identifying early pathways of risk and resilience: The codevelopment of internalizing and externalizing symptoms and the role of harsh parenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiggins, Jillian Lee; Mitchell, Colter; Hyde, Luke W; Monk, Christopher S

    2015-11-01

    Psychological disorders co-occur often in children, but little has been done to document the types of conjoint pathways internalizing and externalizing symptoms may take from the crucial early period of toddlerhood or how harsh parenting may overlap with early symptom codevelopment. To examine symptom codevelopment trajectories, we identified latent classes of individuals based on internalizing and externalizing symptoms across ages 3-9 and found three symptom codevelopment classes: normative symptoms (low), severe-decreasing symptoms (initially high but rapidly declining), and severe symptoms (high) trajectories. Next, joint models examined how parenting trajectories overlapped with internalizing and externalizing symptom trajectories. These trajectory classes demonstrated that, normatively, harsh parenting increased after toddlerhood, but the severe symptoms class was characterized by a higher level and a steeper increase in harsh parenting and the severe-decreasing class by high, stable harsh parenting. In addition, a transactional model examined the bidirectional relationships among internalizing and externalizing symptoms and harsh parenting because they may cascade over time in this early period. Harsh parenting uniquely contributed to externalizing symptoms, controlling for internalizing symptoms, but not vice versa. In addition, internalizing symptoms appeared to be a mechanism by which externalizing symptoms increase. Results highlight the importance of accounting for both internalizing and externalizing symptoms from an early age to understand risk for developing psychopathology and the role harsh parenting plays in influencing these trajectories.

  2. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Risk assessment methodologies for predicting phosphorus losses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoumans, O.F.; Chardon, W.J.

    2003-01-01

    Risk assessment parameters are needed to assess the contribution of phosphorus (P) losses from soil to surface water, and the effectiveness of nutrient and land management strategies for the reduction of P loss. These parameters need to take into account the large temporal and spatial variation in P

  4. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  5. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  6. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  7. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  8. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  9. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  10. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  11. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  12. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  13. Postural risk assessment of mechanised firewood processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinelli, Raffaele; Aminti, Giovanni; De Francesco, Fabio

    2017-03-01

    The study assessed the postural risk of mechanised firewood processing with eight machines, representing the main technology solutions available on the market. Assessment was conducted with the Ovako Working posture Analysis System (OWAS) on 1000 still frames randomly extracted from videotaped work samples. The postural risk associated with firewood processing was variable and associated with technology type. Simple, manually operated new machines incurred a higher postural risk compared with semi- or fully automatic machines. In contrast, new semi-automatic and automatic machines were generally free from postural risk. In all cases, attention should be paid to postural risk that may occur during blockage resolution. The study did not cover the postural risk of firewood processing sites as a whole. The study provided useful information for selecting firewood processing machinery and for improving firewood machinery design, as part of a more articulate strategy aimed at enhancing the safety of firewood processing work sites. Practitioner Summary: The postural risk associated with mechanised firewood processing (eg cutting and splitting) depends on the type of equipment. Postural risk is highest (OWAS Action Category 2) with new in-line machines, designed for operation by a single worker. Fully automatic machines present minimum postural risk, except during blockage resolution.

  14. US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

  15. Quantitative Risk Assessment of Contact Sensitization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Api, Anne Marie; Belsito, Donald; Bickers, David

    2010-01-01

    Background: Contact hypersensitivity quantitative risk assessment (QRA) for fragrance ingredients is being used to establish new international standards for all fragrance ingredients that are potential skin sensitizers. Objective: The objective was to evaluate the retrospective clinical data...... as potential sensitizers. Methods: This article reviews clinical data for three fragrance ingredients cinnamic aldehyde, citral, and isoeugenol to assess the utility of the QRA approach for fragrance ingredients. Results: This assessment suggests that had the QRA approach been available at the time standards...

  16. External quality assessment programs in the context of ISO 15189 accreditation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciacovelli, Laura; Secchiero, Sandra; Padoan, Andrea; Plebani, Mario

    2018-05-23

    Effective management of clinical laboratories participating in external quality assessment schemes (EQAS) is of fundamental importance in ensuring reliable analytical results. The International Standard ISO 15189:2012 requires participation in interlaboratory comparison [e.g. external quality assessment (EQA)] for all tests provided by an individual laboratory. If EQAS is not commercially available, alternative approaches should be identified, although clinical laboratories may find it challenging to choose the EQAS that comply with the international standards and approved guidelines. Great competence is therefore required, as well as knowledge of the characteristics and key elements affecting the reliability of an EQAS, and the analytical quality specifications stated in approved documents. Another skill of fundamental importance is the ability to identify an alternative approach when the available EQAS are inadequate or missing. Yet the choice of the right EQA program alone does not guarantee its effectiveness. In fact, the fundamental steps of analysis of the information provided in EQA reports and the ability to identify improvement actions to be undertaken call for the involvement of all laboratory staff playing a role in the specific activity. The aim of this paper was to describe the critical aspects that EQA providers and laboratory professionals should control in order to guarantee effective EQAS management and compliance with ISO 15189 accreditation requirements.

  17. Measurement and assessment of doses from external radiations required for revised radiation protection regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsujimura, Norio; Kojima, Noboru; Hayashi, Naomi

    2001-01-01

    Radiation protection regulations based on the 1990 recommendations of ICRP have been revised and will take effect from Apr., 2001. The major changes concerning on the measurement and assessment of doses from external radiations are as follows. (1) Personal dose equivalent and ambient dose equivalent stated in ICRP Publication 74 are introduced as quantities to be measured with personal dosimeters and survey instruments, respectively. (2) For multiple dosimetry for workers, the compartment weighting factors used for a realistic assessment of effective dose are markedly changed. In advance of the introduction of the new radiation protection regulations, the impacts on workplace and personal monitoring for external radiations by these revisions were investigated. The following results were obtained. (1) A new ambient dose equivalent to neutrons is higher with a factor of 1.2 than the old one for moderated fission neutron spectra. Therefore, neutron dose equivalent monitors for workplace monitoring at MOX fuel for facilities should be recalibrated for measurement of the new ambient dose equivalent. (2) Annual effective doses of workers were estimated by applying new calibration factors to readings of personal dosimeters, worn by workers. Differences between effective doses and effective dose equivalents are small for workers engaged in the fabrication process of MOX fuel. (author)

  18. Establishing an external quality assessment scheme for point-of-care international normalized ratio in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tientadakul, P; Chuntarut, A

    2015-08-01

    Effective warfarin therapy management has gained national interest, resulting in the increased use of point-of-care testing (POCT) for international normalized ratio (INR). External quality assessment (EQA) is recommended to ensure quality of the testing. CoaguChek XS and CoaguChek XS Plus are the only commonly available POCT INR monitors in Thailand. Therefore, Thailand NEQAS for Blood Coagulation initiated the scheme for POCT INR in 2013, including only hospitals using these devices. Questionnaires were sent to the hospitals, enquiring about their interest in EQA participation. Two surveys were distributed; each included five certified European Concerted Action on Anticoagulation (ECAA) INR plasma sets. Unsatisfactory performance was indicated by a 15% deviation from the certified mean INR value. There were 156 hospitals using the devices. Thirty-five hospitals responded to the questionnaires. Medical personnel undertaking POCT INR were limited to laboratory staff in 29 (83%) of these centers, and 31 hospitals actually participated. The medians of results from participants were the same or nearly the same as the certified mean INRs. External quality assessment for POCT INR in Thailand is feasible using the ECAA plasmas as control materials. The results therefore appear encouraging to other developing countries to establish their own EQA schemes. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Assessment of external costs for transport project evaluation: Guidelines in some European countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petruccelli, Umberto, E-mail: umberto.petruccelli@unibas.it

    2015-09-15

    Many studies about the external costs generated by the transport system have been developed in the last twenty years. To standardize methodologies and assessment procedures to be used in the evaluation of the projects, some European countries recently have adopted specific guidelines that differ from each other in some aspects even sensibly. This paper presents a critical analysis of the British, Italian and German guidelines and is aimed at cataloguing the external cost types regarded and the assessment methods indicated as well as to highlight the differences of the results, in terms of applicability and reliability. The goal is to contribute to a European standardization process that would lead to the drafting of guidelines suited for all EU countries. - Highlights: • The analyzed guidelines agree on the methods to evaluate costs from air pollution, greenhouse gases and accidents. • They recommend respectively: dose-resp. approach; costs to reduce/permit emissions; whole direct, indirect and social costs. • For noise, DE guide indicates defensive expenditure or SP methods; IT guide, SP method; UK guide, the hedonic prices one. • For on territory impact, DE guide regards only the barrier effect; the IT one, also the soil consumption and system effects. • British guide proposes a qualitative methodology to estimate the impact on various landscapes and environments.

  20. Measurement and assessment of doses from external radiations required for revised radiation protection regulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsujimura, Norio; Kojima, Noboru; Hayashi, Naomi [Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

    2001-06-01

    Radiation protection regulations based on the 1990 recommendations of ICRP have been revised and will take effect from Apr., 2001. The major changes concerning on the measurement and assessment of doses from external radiations are as follows. (1) Personal dose equivalent and ambient dose equivalent stated in ICRP Publication 74 are introduced as quantities to be measured with personal dosimeters and survey instruments, respectively. (2) For multiple dosimetry for workers, the compartment weighting factors used for a realistic assessment of effective dose are markedly changed. In advance of the introduction of the new radiation protection regulations, the impacts on workplace and personal monitoring for external radiations by these revisions were investigated. The following results were obtained. (1) A new ambient dose equivalent to neutrons is higher with a factor of 1.2 than the old one for moderated fission neutron spectra. Therefore, neutron dose equivalent monitors for workplace monitoring at MOX fuel for facilities should be recalibrated for measurement of the new ambient dose equivalent. (2) Annual effective doses of workers were estimated by applying new calibration factors to readings of personal dosimeters, worn by workers. Differences between effective doses and effective dose equivalents are small for workers engaged in the fabrication process of MOX fuel. (author)

  1. [Risk of developmental dysplasia of the hip in patients subjected to the external cephalic version].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmiento Carrera, Nerea; González Colmenero, Eva; Vázquez Castelo, José Luis; Concheiro Guisán, Ana; Couceiro Naveira, Emilio; Fernández Lorenzo, José Ramón

    2018-03-01

    Developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH) refers to the spectrum of abnormalities of maturation and development of the hip. Breech presentation is associated with DDH. This risk factor can be modified by external cephalic version (ECV). The aim of this study is to evaluate the incidence of DDH in patients who successfully underwent ECV, as well as to evaluate need for these children (breech for a period during gestation) to be included in the DDH screening protocol. A prospective cohort study was conducted in the Hospital Universitario de Vigo from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2015. It included children born in cephalic presentation after a successful ECV, as well as children born in breech presentation. They all were screened for DDH by ultrasound examination of the hip. Out of a total of 122 newborns included in the study, ECV was attempted on 67 (54.9%), of which 35 (52.2%) were successful. Out of the 14 children diagnosed with DDH, 3 of those born in cephalic presentation after a successful ECV were found to be normal on physical examination. Successful ECV is associated with a lower incidence of DDH as regards breech presentation. However, these patients should be included in the DDH screening protocol for the early detection of this disorder. Copyright © 2017 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  2. Airport Casualties: Non-Admission and Return Risks at Times of Internalized/Externalized Border Controls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maybritt Jill Alpes

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes what can happen to forced returnees upon arrival in their country of nationality. Subjective configurations of state agents in the Global South have created return risks, which in turn transform subjectivities of post-colonial citizens. The article contributes to this Special Issue by tracing repercussions of the externalization and internalization of border controls. In the case of Cameroon, these connections have resulted in the criminalization of emigration. Aspiring migrants are prosecuted if their departure projects fail to respect the entry requirements of countries in the Global North. The article is based on research conducted in Douala, Cameroon, in the form of discussions with control agents at the international airport, investigations at a prison, a review of related case law, police registers and interviews with Cameroonians returnees (November 2013–January 2014. Border controls and connected anti-fraud programs suppress family-based forms of solidarity and allow only for subjectivities rooted in state-managed forms of national identity. The article illustrates how efforts to combat fraud fuel corruption in returnees’ social networks, whereby, instead of receiving remittances, families in emigration countries have to mobilize financial resources in order to liberate returnees from police stations or prison complexes. Migration related detention of nationals in the Global South highlights the growing significance of exit controls in migration management.

  3. Reducing the risk of radiocarcinogenesis in paediatric patients treated with external beam radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, M.L.; Franich, R.D.; Kron, Tomas

    2010-01-01

    Full text: The aim of this study was to determine readily-implementable means of out-of-field dose reduction in paediatric patients undergoing external beam radiotherapy for intracranial lesions. [n this way, the risk of secondary cancer induction may be reduced. Dose measurements were taken using LiF:Mg, Cu, P TLD 1 00 H chips in a 5 year old paediatric phantom. Multiple TLDs were placed at: the right and left lenses of the eye, optic nerve, brain, thyroid, lungs, heart, kidneys, abdomen and gonads. Varian 600 C and Varian Trilogy linear accelerators, both at 6 MV, were investigated, using different delivery parameters. Most of the out-of-field dose at large distances is attributable to leakage. The difference between stereotactic and larger field sizes is less significant far from the primary field. Out-of-field dose from the Trilogy was 40% higher than the 600 e . Aligning the craniocaudal axis of the patient with the x-plane of the collimator results in a dose reduction of 40%, for both machines. - A simple shielding arrangement may halve out-of-field dose. (author)

  4. Transfer shuttle for vitrified residue canisters control of risks associated with external exposure and heat release

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BIndel, L.; Gamess, A.; Lejeune, E.; Cellier, P.; Maillard, A. [SGN Reseau Eurisys, 78 - Saint Quentin (France)

    1998-07-01

    In the La Hague COGEMA's plant area, nuclear residue isolated by reprocessing are transported by means of specific transfer shuttles between the different processing and/or conditioning facilities and the storage ones. These shuttles are designed by reference to the applicable dose equivalent rate (DER) limits for transport on the site and the thermal behavior limitations of certain mechanical components which guarantee the containment of the transported waste. This paper describes and example of a study conducted on a transfer shuttle for vitrified residue canisters. Concerning the control of risks associated with external exposure and with heat releases, these were handled by the 'Shielding-Criticality-Dispersion' and 'process Modelling and Simulation' Sections of the Technical Division of SGN. The dose profiles around the shuttle, as a function of the shielding heterogeneities and possible radiation leakage, as well as the thermal fields within the shuttle, were calculated using 3D models. These design studies ultimately helped to select and validate the optimal solutions. (authors)

  5. Seismic risk assessment of a BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, J.E.; Bernreuter, D.L.; Chen, J.C.; Lappa, D.A.; Chuang, T.Y.; Murray, R.C.; Johnson, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    The simplified seismic risk methodology developed in the USNRC Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) was demonstrated by its application to the Zion nuclear power plant (PWR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was developed to reduce the costs associated with a seismic risk analysis while providing adequate results. A detailed model of Zion, including systems analysis models (initiating events, event trees, and fault trees), SSI and structure models, and piping models, was developed and used in assessing the seismic risk of the Zion nuclear power plant (FSAR). The simplified seismic risk methodology was applied to the LaSalle County Station nuclear power plant, a BWR; to further demonstrate its applicability, and if possible, to provide a basis for comparing the seismic risk from PWRs and BWRs. (orig./HP)

  6. An examination of the hexokinase method for serum glucose assay using external quality assessment data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westwood, A; Bullock, D G; Whitehead, T P

    1986-01-01

    Hexokinase methods for serum glucose assay appeared to give slightly but consistently higher inter-laboratory coefficients of variation than all methods combined in the UK External Quality Assessment Scheme; their performance over a two-year period was therefore compared with that for three groups of glucose oxidase methods. This assessment showed no intrinsic inferiority in the hexokinase method. The greater variation may be due to the more heterogeneous group of instruments, particularly discrete analysers, on which the method is used. The Beckman Glucose Analyzer and Astra group (using a glucose oxidase method) showed the least inter-laboratory variability but also the lowest mean value. No comment is offered on the absolute accuracy of any of the methods.

  7. EXTERNAL QUALITY ASSESSMENT OF GENERAL EDUCATION AS A FACTOR OF TEACHERS’ PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. V. Potemkinа

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Nowadays, foreign and Russian researchers state the lack of reliable tools for diagnostics of professional gaps among teachers. It is unjustified to draw conclusions about skill level of teachers, relying only on results which are shown by pupils when holding unified state examinations and monitoring tests. However, information on results of an external assessment of quality of the general education (the USE, OGE, All-Russian test works and national researches of quality of education corresponds to professional development of teachers and more rational organization of this process.The aim of the article is to consider and discuss the relationship between professional development of teachers and external assessment of the quality of general education; the search of opportunities and terms of the results use of external evaluation procedures in teacher training.Methodology and research methods. The authors analyzed the publications (available on the Internet and in periodicals to determine the relevance of the problem and compare approaches to its solution by Russian and foreign researchers. The methods involve content analysis, problem-based and comparative analysis for the diagnosis of the current practices of teachers’ professional development. The purpose of the analysis is the inclusion of education quality assessment and evaluation results in the contents of programs of professional development of teachers.Results. The created request for the profitability analysis results of an external assessment of general education quality of professional development of pedagogical staff is observed. However, the analysis of modern practice of additional professional pedagogical education showed that the preparation to prevails; certification procedure results for improvement of pedagogical activity are rarely used. The main reasons for this situation are found out: lack of the target information products for system of professional

  8. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  9. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  10. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  11. Stressors in Multiple Life-Domains and the Risk for Externalizing and Internalizing Behaviors among African Americans during Emerging Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada-Martanez, Lorena M.; Caldwell, Cleopatra H.; Bauermeister, Jose A.; Zimmerman, Marc A.

    2012-01-01

    Behavioral and mental health outcomes have been associated with experiencing high levels of stress. Yet, little is known about the link between the nature of stressors, their accumulation over time, and the risk for externalizing and internalizing outcomes. Compared to the general population, African Americans are exposed to a disproportionate…

  12. External validation of the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) risk prediction model in critical care units in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, David A; Lone, Nazir I; Haddow, Catriona; MacGillivray, Moranne; Khan, Angela; Cook, Brian; Rowan, Kathryn M

    2014-01-01

    Risk prediction models are used in critical care for risk stratification, summarising and communicating risk, supporting clinical decision-making and benchmarking performance. However, they require validation before they can be used with confidence, ideally using independently collected data from a different source to that used to develop the model. The aim of this study was to validate the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre (ICNARC) model using independently collected data from critical care units in Scotland. Data were extracted from the Scottish Intensive Care Society Audit Group (SICSAG) database for the years 2007 to 2009. Recoding and mapping of variables was performed, as required, to apply the ICNARC model (2009 recalibration) to the SICSAG data using standard computer algorithms. The performance of the ICNARC model was assessed for discrimination, calibration and overall fit and compared with that of the Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II model. There were 29,626 admissions to 24 adult, general critical care units in Scotland between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2009. After exclusions, 23,269 admissions were included in the analysis. The ICNARC model outperformed APACHE II on measures of discrimination (c index 0.848 versus 0.806), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-squared statistic 18.8 versus 214) and overall fit (Brier's score 0.140 versus 0.157; Shapiro's R 0.652 versus 0.621). Model performance was consistent across the three years studied. The ICNARC model performed well when validated in an external population to that in which it was developed, using independently collected data.

  13. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  14. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  15. Sexual Risk Behaviors in the Adolescent Offspring of Parents with Bipolar Disorder: Prospective Associations with Parents' Personality and Externalizing Behavior in Childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijjar, Rami; Ellenbogen, Mark A; Hodgins, Sheilagh

    2016-10-01

    We recently reported that adolescent and young adult offspring of parents with bipolar disorder (OBD), relative to control offspring, were more likely to engage in sexual risk behaviors (SRBs). The present prospective study aimed to determine the contribution of parents' personality and offspring behaviour problems in middle childhood to offspring SRBs 10 years later. We hypothesized that offspring externalizing problems in childhood would mediate the relationship between parents' personality traits of neuroticism and agreeableness and adolescent SRBs. Furthermore, we expected these associations to be more robust among the OBD than controls. At baseline, 102 offspring (52 OBD and 50 controls) aged between 4 and 14 years were assessed along with their parents, who completed a self-report personality measure and child behavior rating. Behaviour ratings were also obtained from the children's teachers. Ten years later the offspring completed an interview assessing SRBs. Mediation analyses using bootstrapping revealed that, after controlling for age and presence of an affective disorder, externalizing behaviors served as a pathway through which high parental neuroticism, low parental agreeableness, and low parental extraversion were related to SRBs in offspring. Moderated mediation analyses revealed that the relationship between parental neuroticism and childhood externalizing problems was stronger for OBD than controls. These findings add to our previous results showing parents' personality contributes to intergenerational risk transfer through behavioral problems in middle childhood. These results carry implications for optimal timing of preventative interventions in the OBD.

  16. Assessment of uncertainties of external dose estimation after the Chernobyl accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruk, Julianna

    2008-01-01

    Full text: In the remote period of time after the Chernobyl accident the estimation of an external exposure with using of direct dose rate measurements or individual monitoring of inhabitants is rationally only for settlements where the preliminary estimation makes the range equal or greater 1.0 mSv per year. For inhabitancies of settlements where the preliminary estimation makes the range less 1.0 mSv per year the external dose is correctly to estimate by calculation. For the last cases the uncertainty should be assessed. The most accessible initial parameter for calculation of a dose of an external exposure is the average ground deposition of Cs-137 for the settlements. The character of density distribution of Cs-137 deposition in an area of one settlement is well enough studied. The best agreement of distribution of this parameter is reached with log-normal distribution practically for all settlements of the investigated territories with factor of a variation 0.3-0.6 and the standard geometrical deviation lying within the limits of 1.4-1.7. The dose factors which correspond to the structure of an available housing of settlement (type of apartment houses: wooden, stone, multi-storey) and age structure of the population are bring the main contribution into uncertainty of the external dose estimation. The situations with a different level of known information have been considered for the estimation of influence of those parameters on the general uncertainty. Thus the estimation of the uncertainty of the external dose was done for two variant: optimistic and pessimistic. In the optimistic case the estimation of external doses will be spent for specific settlement with known structure of housing and according to a known share of the living population in houses of the certain type. In that case, variability value dose factor will be limited to the chosen type of a residential building (for example - the one-storied wooden house), and a share of the living population

  17. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  18. Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, C. Senthil; Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K.; Balasubramaniyan, V.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.

  19. Integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites—A comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, C. Senthil, E-mail: cskumar@igcar.gov.in [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India); Hassija, Varun; Velusamy, K. [Reactor Design Group, Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research, Kalpakkam (India); Balasubramaniyan, V. [AERB-Safety Research Institute, Kalpakkam (India)

    2015-11-15

    Highlights: • Framework for integrated risk assessment for multi-unit NPP sites. • Categorization of external and internal events. • Modelling of key issues: mission time, cliff-edge, common cause failures, etc. • Safety goals for multi-unit NPP sites. • Comparison of site core damage frequency in one, two, three and four unit sites. - Abstract: Most of the nuclear power producing sites in the world houses multiple units. Such sites are faced with hazards generated from external events: earthquake, tsunami, flood, etc. and can threaten the safety of nuclear power plants. Further, risk from a multiple unit site and its impact on the public and environment was evident during the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. It is therefore important to evolve a methodology to systematically assess the risk from multi-unit site. For a single unit site, probabilistic risk assessment technique identifies the potential accident scenarios, their consequences, and estimates the core damage frequency that arise due to internal and external hazards. This challenging task becomes even more complex for a multiple unit site, especially when the external hazards that has the potential to generate one or more correlated hazards or a combination of non-correlated hazards are to be modelled. This paper presents an approach to evaluate risk for multiple NPP sites and also compare the risk for sites housing single, double and multiple nuclear plants.

  20. A methodology for reviewing probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Derby, S.L.

    1983-01-01

    The starting point for peer review of a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a clear understanding of how the risk estimate was prepared and of what contributions dominate the calculation. The problem facing the reviewers is how to cut through the complex details of a PRA to gain this understanding. This paper presents a structured, analytical procedure that solves this problem. The effectiveness of this solution is demonstrated by an application on the Zion Probabilistic Safety Study. The procedure found the three dominant initiating events and provided a simplified reconstruction of the calculation of the risk estimate. Significant assessments of uncertainty were also identified. If peer review disputes the accuracy of these judgments, then the revised risk estimate could significantly increase

  1. Estimation, assessment and management of risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoehl-Kompa, S.

    2005-01-01

    After the introductory lectures the closed conference divided into sessions on the estimation, assessment and management of risks. This review article summarises some of the central issues which were addressed in the discussions held during the closed conference and which may be of significance for the future work of the ''Radiation Risk'' Committee within the Radiation Protection Commission. Fundamental difficulties still persist in the implementation of risk quantities within the concepts of radiation protection (lectures by Breckow and Kiefer). Some of these difficulties have to do with the definition of dose quantities, in particular with the one most central to radiation protection, the effective dose. In the field of sparsely ionizing radiation attention was focused on two main topics, namely the risk of acquiring thyroid cancer in association with the Chernobyl desaster and analyses of new mortality data on the survivors of the nuclear bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In the area of lung cancer risk from radon exposure, attention was focused on indoor exposure and the cohort study on bismuth miners. The body of knowledge that has accumulated on the risk of acquiring cancer through UV radiation takes a special position within the wider field of risks associated with nonionizing radiation, since much has already been achieved towards identifying the action mechanisms involved here. Since skin cancer shows the highest increments in incidence of all types of cancer, estimating the risk of acquiring skin cancer through UV radiation will be an important issue in future. One of the tasks of risk management is to translate the results of risk assessment into action. One task of particular importance in this regard is ''risk communication'', the problems surrounding which were illuminated from different perspectives in various contributions

  2. Personality assessment inventory internalizing and externalizing structure in veterans with posttraumatic stress disorder: associations with aggression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Voorhees, Elizabeth E; Dennis, Paul A; Elbogen, Eric B; Clancy, Carolina P; Hertzberg, Michael A; Beckham, Jean C; Calhoun, Patrick S

    2014-01-01

    Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with aggressive behavior in veterans, and difficulty controlling aggressive urges has been identified as a primary postdeployment readjustment concern. Yet only a fraction of veterans with PTSD commit violent acts. The goals of this study were to (1) examine the higher-order factor structure of Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI) scales in a sample of U.S. military veterans seeking treatment for PTSD; and (2) to evaluate the incremental validity of higher-order latent factors of the PAI over PTSD symptom severity in modeling aggression. The study sample included male U.S. Vietnam (n = 433) and Iraq/Afghanistan (n = 165) veterans who were seeking treatment for PTSD at an outpatient Veterans Affairs (VA) clinic. Measures included the Clinician Administered PTSD Scale, the PAI, and the Conflict Tactics Scale. The sample was randomly split into two equal subsamples (n's = 299) to allow for cross-validation of statistically derived factors. Parallel analysis, variable clustering analysis, and confirmatory factor analyses were used to evaluate the factor structure, and regression was used to examine the association of factor scores with self-reports of aggression over the past year. Three factors were identified: internalizing, externalizing, and substance abuse. Externalizing explained unique variance in aggression beyond PTSD symptom severity and demographic factors, while internalizing and substance abuse did not. Service era was unrelated to reports of aggression. The constructs of internalizing versus externalizing dimensions of PTSD may have utility in identifying characteristics of combat veterans in the greatest need of treatment to help manage aggressive urges. Published 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Assessment of Diaphragm and External Intercostals Fatigue from Surface EMG using Cervical Magnetic Stimulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya-Ju Chang

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available This study was designed: (1 to test the reliability of surface electromyography (sEMG recording of the diaphragm and external intercostals contractions response to cervical magnetic stimulation (CMS, (2 to examine the amount and the types of inspiratory muscle fatigue that developed after maximum voluntary ventilation (MVV maneuvers.Ten male college students without physical disability (22.1±2.0 years old participated in the study and each completed a control (quiet breathing trial and a fatigue (MVV maneuvers trial sequentially. In the quiet breathing trial, the subjects maintained quiet breathing for five minutes. The subjects performed five maximal static inspiratory efforts and received five CMS before and after the quiet breathing. In the MVV trial, subjects performed five maximal inspiratory efforts and received five CMS before, immediately after, and ten minutes after two sets of MVV maneuvers performed five minutes apart. Maximal inspiratory pressure (PImax, sEMG of diaphragm and external intercostals during maximal static inspiratory efforts and during CMS were recorded. In the quiet breathing trial, high intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC=0.95-0.99 were observed in all the variables. In the MVV trial, the PImax, the EMG amplitude and the median power frequency during maximal static inspiratory efforts significantly decreased in both the diaphragm and the external intercostals immediately after the MVV maneuvers Sensors 2008, 8 2175 (P 0.05. It is concluded that the sEMG recordings of the diaphragm during maximal static inspiratory efforts and in response to CMS allow reproducible sequential assessment of diaphragm contractility. MVV maneuvers resulted in inspiratory muscles fatigue, possibly central fatigue.

  4. Optimized electricity expansions with external costs internalized and risk of severe accidents as a new criterion in the decision analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin del Campo M, C.; Estrada S, G. J., E-mail: cmcm@fi-b.unam.mx [UNAM, Facultad de Ingenieria, Departamento de Sistemas Energeticos, Paseo Cuauhnahuac 8532, 62550 Jiutepec, Morelos (Mexico)

    2011-11-15

    The external cost of severe accidents was incorporated as a new element for the assessment of energy technologies in the expansion plans of the Mexican electric generating system. Optimizations of the electric expansions were made by internalizing the external cost into the objective function of the WASP-IV model as a variable cost, and these expansions were compared with the expansion plans that did not internalize them. Average external costs reported by the Extern E Project were used for each type of technology and were added to the variable component of operation and maintenance cost in the study cases in which the externalises were internalized. Special attention was paid to study the convenience of including nuclear energy in the generating mix. The comparative assessment of six expansion plans was made by means of the Position Vector of Minimum Regret Analysis (PVMRA) decision analysis tool. The expansion plans were ranked according to seven decision criteria which consider internal costs, economical impact associated with incremental fuel prices, diversity, external costs, foreign capital fraction, carbon-free fraction, and external costs of severe accidents. A set of data for the calculation of the last criterion was obtained from a Report of the European Commission. We found that with the external costs included in the optimization process of WASP-IV, better electric expansion plans, with lower total (internal + external) generating costs, were found. On the other hand, the plans which included the participation of nuclear power plants were in general relatively more attractive than the plans that did not. (Author)

  5. Risk Assessment Approaches for Carcinogenic Food Contaminants

    OpenAIRE

    Gillespie, Zoe; Pulido, Olga; Vavasour, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    Health Canada has identified the need for a standardized department-wide approach for the risk assessment of carcinogens in foods (e.g., pesticides, food chemical contaminants, veterinary therapeutics). A standardized approach would better facilitate and inform risk management strategies for the control of human exposure to food sources of carcinogens. Within the post- market regulatory context, directly DNA-reactive carcinogens are of most concern because any exposure is theoretically assume...

  6. Superfund risk assessment in soil contamination studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoddinott, K.B.

    1992-01-01

    This symposium was held in New Orleans, Louisiana on January 30-31, 1991. The purpose of the meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of information on risk assessment associated with soil contamination. The conference included presentations in the following categories: site characterization; fate and transport; toxicity, exposures, and receptors; risk characterization/case studies; and establishing cleanup levels. Individual papers have been cataloged separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  7. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  8. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  9. Developing standards for malaria microscopy: external competency assessment for malaria microscopists in the Asia-Pacific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashraf, Sania; Kao, Angie; Hugo, Cecilia; Christophel, Eva M; Fatunmbi, Bayo; Luchavez, Jennifer; Lilley, Ken; Bell, David

    2012-10-24

    Malaria diagnosis has received renewed interest in recent years, associated with the increasing accessibility of accurate diagnosis through the introduction of rapid diagnostic tests and new World Health Organization guidelines recommending parasite-based diagnosis prior to anti-malarial therapy. However, light microscopy, established over 100 years ago and frequently considered the reference standard for clinical diagnosis, has been neglected in control programmes and in the malaria literature and evidence suggests field standards are commonly poor. Microscopy remains the most accessible method for parasite quantitation, for drug efficacy monitoring, and as a reference of assessing other diagnostic tools. This mismatch between quality and need highlights the importance of the establishment of reliable standards and procedures for assessing and assuring quality. This paper describes the development, function and impact of a multi-country microscopy external quality assurance network set up for this purpose in Asia. Surveys were used for key informants and past participants for feedback on the quality assurance programme. Competency scores for each country from 14 participating countries were compiled for analyses using paired sample t-tests. In-depth interviews were conducted with key informants including the programme facilitators and national level microscopists. External assessments and limited retraining through a formalized programme based on a reference slide bank has demonstrated an increase in standards of competence of senior microscopists over a relatively short period of time, at a potentially sustainable cost. The network involved in the programme now exceeds 14 countries in the Asia-Pacific, and the methods are extended to other regions. While the impact on national programmes varies, it has translated in some instances into a strengthening of national microscopy standards and offers a possibility both for supporting revival of national microcopy

  10. Developing standards for malaria microscopy: external competency assessment for malaria microscopists in the Asia-Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Sania

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria diagnosis has received renewed interest in recent years, associated with the increasing accessibility of accurate diagnosis through the introduction of rapid diagnostic tests and new World Health Organization guidelines recommending parasite-based diagnosis prior to anti-malarial therapy. However, light microscopy, established over 100 years ago and frequently considered the reference standard for clinical diagnosis, has been neglected in control programmes and in the malaria literature and evidence suggests field standards are commonly poor. Microscopy remains the most accessible method for parasite quantitation, for drug efficacy monitoring, and as a reference of assessing other diagnostic tools. This mismatch between quality and need highlights the importance of the establishment of reliable standards and procedures for assessing and assuring quality. This paper describes the development, function and impact of a multi-country microscopy external quality assurance network set up for this purpose in Asia. Methods Surveys were used for key informants and past participants for feedback on the quality assurance programme. Competency scores for each country from 14 participating countries were compiled for analyses using paired sample t-tests. In-depth interviews were conducted with key informants including the programme facilitators and national level microscopists. Results External assessments and limited retraining through a formalized programme based on a reference slide bank has demonstrated an increase in standards of competence of senior microscopists over a relatively short period of time, at a potentially sustainable cost. The network involved in the programme now exceeds 14 countries in the Asia-Pacific, and the methods are extended to other regions. Conclusions While the impact on national programmes varies, it has translated in some instances into a strengthening of national microscopy standards and offers a

  11. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  13. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  14. Korean risk assessment model for breast cancer risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K

    2013-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (pKorean women, especially urban women.

  15. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  16. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  17. Risks assessment and comparison: Interest and feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulon, Rene

    1989-01-01

    Comparative risk assessment and risk management have become a real discipline, requiring a scientific approach. This is due to the increasing need to take account of risks in the decision processes together with other economic, social or political considerations. Although the notion of risk is generally associated with emergency situations, it seems necessary to pay more attention to those situations which are considered as normal situations but could be responsible for a significant part of the observed health effects. In this context, a research programme entitled Programme Grand Delta has been developed at a regional level: its aim is to provide a clear and simple representation of the risks to which the population living in this area is exposed. (author)

  18. Caries risk assessment in young adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

  19. Environmental health risk assessment: Energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Somers, E.; Winthrop, S.O.

    1984-01-01

    Most industrialized nations have come to rely on a variety of systems for energy production, both of a conventional and non-conventional nature. In the paper, the spectrum of energy systems currently in use in Canada is outlined along with their potential health risks. Several examples of environmental health studies involving both outdoor and indoor air pollution related to energy production in Canada are reported. The limitations of current technologies for assessing health risks are discussed and possible approaches to managing energy related health risks are indicated. (author)

  20. Risk assessment techniques for industrial installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croitoru, C.; Dumitrescu, M.; Preda, I.; Stefanescu, I.; Titescu, G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a risk analysis which concerns the following stages: identification of the initiation events, evaluation of the occurrence frequency of different accident sequences, assessment of human, economical, and environmental consequences, risk assessment and management. The study of the accident sequences subsequent to an initiation event was achieved by the event tree method. Also, there were developed methods based on mathematical models of installations which take into account reliability data, data concerning the exploitation history, and data referring to the human factor effects in the installation operation. These methods were used for the determination of occurrence frequencies of hydrogen sulfide emission accidents in the heavy water production installations

  1. Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions

  2. An assessment of the low seismic risk of the inherently safe sodium advanced fast reactor (SAFR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rutherford, P.D.

    1988-01-01

    A recent probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the sodium advanced fast reactor (SAFR) demonstrated the inherently low risk of advanced liquid-metal, pool-type fast reactors with inherent safety systems. As a result, it was recognized that external events, especially seismic events, may not only be a major contributor to risk (as shown in several LWR PRAs) but also may completely dominate the risk. Accordingly, a seismic risk assessment has been completed for SAFR, which resulted in a core damage frequency of 2 x 10 -7 /year and a large release frequency of 4 x 10 -9 /year. This paper reports that public health risk in terms of early fatality risk and latent fatality risk were also several orders of magnitude below the NRC safety goals and below recent LWR risks reported in NUREB/CR1150

  3. Stochastic health effects assessment due to short-term external exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raicevic, J.J.; Raskob, W.; Merkle, M.; Ninkovic, M.M.

    2001-01-01

    The new model for calculation of stochastic health effects is presented in this paper. The exposure pathways which are briefly considered are the short-term external exposure due to passage of the radioactive cloud (cloudshine) and the short-term external exposure due to radioactive material deposited on skin and clothes (skin contamination). The quantitative assessment of stochastic effects is expressed in numbers of deaths, which are given as a functions of the time at the accident, and age at death, what on the other side enables estimation of the number of deaths within the specified range of the time/age parameters. That means the model calculates the number of deaths within one particular year, summed up over all ages at deaths, or vice versa, it finds the number of deaths within the specified range of ages at death, summed up over all observation times. Results presented in this paper are implemented in the module LATEHEAL, which is incorporated in RODOS, a new European system for decision support for nuclear emergencies. (author)

  4. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  5. Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

    2011-12-01

    To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

  6. Mixtures and their risk assessment in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Moiz M; Hansen, Hugh; Pohl, Hana R

    2011-01-01

    For communities generally and for persons living in the vicinity of waste sites specifically, potential exposures to chemical mixtures are genuine concerns. Such concerns often arise from perceptions of a site's higher than anticipated toxicity due to synergistic interactions among chemicals. This chapter outlines some historical approaches to mixtures risk assessment. It also outlines ATSDR's current approach to toxicity risk assessment. The ATSDR's joint toxicity assessment guidance for chemical mixtures addresses interactions among components of chemical mixtures. The guidance recommends a series of steps that include simple calculations for a systematic analysis of data leading to conclusions regarding any hazards chemical mixtures might pose. These conclusions can, in turn, lead to recommendations such as targeted research to fill data gaps, development of new methods using current science, and health education to raise awareness of residents and health care providers. The chapter also provides examples of future trends in chemical mixtures assessment.

  7. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  8. Predictors of outcome after elective endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair and external validation of a risk prediction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisniowski, Brendan; Barnes, Mary; Jenkins, Jason; Boyne, Nicholas; Kruger, Allan; Walker, Philip J

    2011-09-01

    Endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair (EVAR) has been associated with lower operative mortality and morbidity than open surgery but comparable long-term mortality and higher delayed complication and reintervention rates. Attention has therefore been directed to identifying preoperative and operative variables that influence outcomes after EVAR. Risk-prediction models, such as the EVAR Risk Assessment (ERA) model, have also been developed to help surgeons plan EVAR procedures. The aims of this study were (1) to describe outcomes of elective EVAR at the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital (RBWH), (2) to identify preoperative and operative variables predictive of outcomes after EVAR, and (3) to externally validate the ERA model. All elective EVAR procedures at the RBWH before July 1, 2009, were reviewed. Descriptive analyses were performed to determine the outcomes. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify preoperative and operative variables predictive of outcomes after EVAR. Binomial logistic regression analyses were used to externally validate the ERA model. Before July 1, 2009, 197 patients (172 men), who were a mean age of 72.8 years, underwent elective EVAR at the RBWH. Operative mortality was 1.0%. Survival was 81.1% at 3 years and 63.2% at 5 years. Multivariate analysis showed predictors of survival were age (P = .0126), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score (P = .0180), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (P = .0348) at 3 years and age (P = .0103), ASA score (P = .0006), renal failure (P = .0048), and serum creatinine (P = .0022) at 5 years. Aortic branch vessel score was predictive of initial (30-day) type II endoleak (P = .0015). AAA tortuosity was predictive of midterm type I endoleak (P = .0251). Female sex was associated with lower rates of initial clinical success (P = .0406). The ERA model fitted RBWH data well for early death (C statistic = .906), 3-year survival (C statistic = .735), 5-year

  9. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research

  10. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  11. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  12. Heuristics structure and pervade formal risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGillivray, Brian H

    2014-04-01

    Lay perceptions of risk appear rooted more in heuristics than in reason. A major concern of the risk regulation literature is that such "error-strewn" perceptions may be replicated in policy, as governments respond to the (mis)fears of the citizenry. This has led many to advocate a relatively technocratic approach to regulating risk, characterized by high reliance on formal risk and cost-benefit analysis. However, through two studies of chemicals regulation, we show that the formal assessment of risk is pervaded by its own set of heuristics. These include rules to categorize potential threats, define what constitutes valid data, guide causal inference, and to select and apply formal models. Some of these heuristics lay claim to theoretical or empirical justifications, others are more back-of-the-envelope calculations, while still more purport not to reflect some truth but simply to constrain discretion or perform a desk-clearing function. These heuristics can be understood as a way of authenticating or formalizing risk assessment as a scientific practice, representing a series of rules for bounding problems, collecting data, and interpreting evidence (a methodology). Heuristics are indispensable elements of induction. And so they are not problematic per se, but they can become so when treated as laws rather than as contingent and provisional rules. Pitfalls include the potential for systematic error, masking uncertainties, strategic manipulation, and entrenchment. Our central claim is that by studying the rules of risk assessment qua rules, we develop a novel representation of the methods, conventions, and biases of the prior art. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  14. Quantification of risk considering external events on the change of allowed outage time and the preventive maintenance during power operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, D. J.; Kim, K. Y.; Yang, J. E

    2001-03-01

    In this study, for the major safety systems of Ulchin Units 3/4, we quantify the risk on the change of AOT and the PM during power operation to identify the effects on the results of external events PSA when nuclear power plant changes such as allowed outage time are requested. The systems for which the risks on the change of allowed outage time are quantified are High Pressure Safety Injection System (HPSIS), Containment Spray System (CSS), and Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG). The systems for which the risks on the PM during power operation are Low Pressure Safety Injection System (LPSIS), CSS, EDG, Essential Service Water System (ESWS). Following conclusions can be obtained through this study: 1)The increase of core damage frequency ({delta}CDF) on the change of AOT and the conditional core damage probability (CCDP) on the on-line PM of each system are differently quantified according to the cases of considering only internal events or only external events. . 2)It is expected that the quantification of risk including internal and external events is advantageous for the licensee of NPP if the regulatory acceptance criteria for the technical specification changes are relatively set up. However, it is expected to be disadvantageous for the licensee if the acceptance criteria are absolutely set up. 3)It is expected that the conduction on the quantification of only a fire event is sufficient when the quantification of external events PSA model is required for the plant changes of Korea Standard NPPs. 4)It is expected that the quantification of the increase of core damage frequency and the incremental conditional core damage probability on technical specification changes are not needed if the quantification results of those considering only internal events are below regulatory acceptance criteria and the external events PSA results are not greatly affected by the system availability. However, it is expected that the quantification of risk considering external events

  15. Quantification of risk considering external events on the change of allowed outage time and the preventive maintenance during power operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, D. J.; Kim, K. Y.; Yang, J. E.

    2001-03-01

    In this study, for the major safety systems of Ulchin Units 3/4, we quantify the risk on the change of AOT and the PM during power operation to identify the effects on the results of external events PSA when nuclear power plant changes such as allowed outage time are requested. The systems for which the risks on the change of allowed outage time are quantified are High Pressure Safety Injection System (HPSIS), Containment Spray System (CSS), and Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG). The systems for which the risks on the PM during power operation are Low Pressure Safety Injection System (LPSIS), CSS, EDG, Essential Service Water System (ESWS). Following conclusions can be obtained through this study: 1)The increase of core damage frequency (ΔCDF) on the change of AOT and the conditional core damage probability (CCDP) on the on-line PM of each system are differently quantified according to the cases of considering only internal events or only external events. . 2)It is expected that the quantification of risk including internal and external events is advantageous for the licensee of NPP if the regulatory acceptance criteria for the technical specification changes are relatively set up. However, it is expected to be disadvantageous for the licensee if the acceptance criteria are absolutely set up. 3)It is expected that the conduction on the quantification of only a fire event is sufficient when the quantification of external events PSA model is required for the plant changes of Korea Standard NPPs. 4)It is expected that the quantification of the increase of core damage frequency and the incremental conditional core damage probability on technical specification changes are not needed if the quantification results of those considering only internal events are below regulatory acceptance criteria and the external events PSA results are not greatly affected by the system availability. However, it is expected that the quantification of risk considering external events on

  16. Regional programme on quality control of radioimmunoassay: Development of human resources and external quality assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quiroga, S.; Torres, M.; Mendizabal, A.F.; Farinati, Z.; Galanternik, A.

    1986-01-01

    Since 1978 the authors have been concerned with helping to standardize radioimmunoassay (RIA) methodology in Argentina and other Latin American countries by: (1) developing human resources through courses on quality control of RIA and training of fellows, and (2) developing four external quality assessment (EQA) schemes to evaluate the performance of laboratories in determining several analytes by RIA. The number of collaborating laboratories increased between the first and fourth schemes. The average analytical performance achieved by the participants in each scheme was estimated by the average between-laboratory variation. Thyroxine, cortisol and tri-iodothyronine were measured the most accurately. Different problems were evident in the RIAs of thyrotrophin, luteinizing hormone, follicle stimulating hormone, prolactin, testosterone, progesterone, cortisol, immunoglobulin E and human growth hormone. RIA of oestradiol showed the worst accuracy. Analysis of the results showed an increasing interest in RIA quality control as it was found to improve the reliability of RIA. (author)

  17. Environmental Assessment for the Warren Station externally fired combined cycle demonstration project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-04-01

    The proposed Penelec project is one of 5 projects for potential funding under the fifth solicitation under the Clean Coal Technology program. In Penelec, two existing boilers would be replaced at Warren Station, PA; the new unit would produce 73 MW(e) in a combined cycle mode (using both gas-fired and steam turbines). The project would fill the need for a full utility-size demonstration of externally fire combined cycle (EFCC) technology as the next step toward commercialization. This environmental assessment was prepared for compliance with NEPA; its purpose is to provide sufficient basis for determining whether to prepare an environmental impact statement or to issue a finding of no significant impact. It is divided into the sections: purpose and need for proposed action; alternatives; brief description of affected environment; environmental consequences, including discussion of commercial operation beyond the demonstration period.

  18. Lack of grading agreement among international hemostasis external quality assessment programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, John D; Jennings, Ian; Meijer, Piet; Bon, Chantal; Bonar, Roslyn; Favaloro, Emmanuel J; Higgins, Russell A; Keeney, Michael; Mammen, Joy; Marlar, Richard A; Meley, Roland; Nair, Sukesh C; Nichols, William L; Raby, Anne; Reverter, Joan C; Srivastava, Alok; Walker, Isobel

    2018-01-01

    : Laboratory quality programs rely on internal quality control and external quality assessment (EQA). EQA programs provide unknown specimens for the laboratory to test. The laboratory's result is compared with other (peer) laboratories performing the same test. EQA programs assign target values using a variety of methods statistical tools and performance assessment of 'pass' or 'fail' is made. EQA provider members of the international organization, external quality assurance in thrombosis and hemostasis, took part in a study to compare outcome of performance analysis using the same data set of laboratory results. Eleven EQA organizations using eight different analytical approaches participated. Data for a normal and prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) and a normal and reduced factor VIII (FVIII) from 218 laboratories were sent to the EQA providers who analyzed the data set using their method of evaluation for aPTT and FVIII, determining the performance for each laboratory record in the data set. Providers also summarized their statistical approach to assignment of target values and laboratory performance. Each laboratory record in the data set was graded pass/fail by all EQA providers for each of the four analytes. There was a lack of agreement of pass/fail grading among EQA programs. Discordance in the grading was 17.9 and 11% of normal and prolonged aPTT results, respectively, and 20.2 and 17.4% of normal and reduced FVIII results, respectively. All EQA programs in this study employed statistical methods compliant with the International Standardization Organization (ISO), ISO 13528, yet the evaluation of laboratory results for all four analytes showed remarkable grading discordance.

  19. Lack of grading agreement among international hemostasis external quality assessment programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, John D.; Jennings, Ian; Meijer, Piet; Bon, Chantal; Bonar, Roslyn; Favaloro, Emmanuel J.; Higgins, Russell A.; Keeney, Michael; Mammen, Joy; Marlar, Richard A.; Meley, Roland; Nair, Sukesh C.; Nichols, William L.; Raby, Anne; Reverter, Joan C.; Srivastava, Alok; Walker, Isobel

    2018-01-01

    Laboratory quality programs rely on internal quality control and external quality assessment (EQA). EQA programs provide unknown specimens for the laboratory to test. The laboratory's result is compared with other (peer) laboratories performing the same test. EQA programs assign target values using a variety of methods statistical tools and performance assessment of ‘pass’ or ‘fail’ is made. EQA provider members of the international organization, external quality assurance in thrombosis and hemostasis, took part in a study to compare outcome of performance analysis using the same data set of laboratory results. Eleven EQA organizations using eight different analytical approaches participated. Data for a normal and prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) and a normal and reduced factor VIII (FVIII) from 218 laboratories were sent to the EQA providers who analyzed the data set using their method of evaluation for aPTT and FVIII, determining the performance for each laboratory record in the data set. Providers also summarized their statistical approach to assignment of target values and laboratory performance. Each laboratory record in the data set was graded pass/fail by all EQA providers for each of the four analytes. There was a lack of agreement of pass/fail grading among EQA programs. Discordance in the grading was 17.9 and 11% of normal and prolonged aPTT results, respectively, and 20.2 and 17.4% of normal and reduced FVIII results, respectively. All EQA programs in this study employed statistical methods compliant with the International Standardization Organization (ISO), ISO 13528, yet the evaluation of laboratory results for all four analytes showed remarkable grading discordance. PMID:29232255

  20. The use of current risk analysis tools evaluated towards preventing external domino accidents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reniers, Genserik L L; Dullaert, W.; Ale, B. J.M.; Soudan, K.

    Risk analysis is an essential tool for company safety policy. Risk analysis consists of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The efficiency of risk analysis tools depends on the rigueur of identifying and evaluating all possible risks. The diversity in risk analysis procedures is such that