WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment era

  1. The ChimERA project: Coupling mechanistic exposure and effect models into an integrated platform for ecological risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laender, de F.; Brink, van den P.J.; Janssen, C.R.; Guardo, Di A.

    2014-01-01

    Current techniques for the ecological risk assessment of chemical substances are often criticised for their lack of environmental realism, ecological relevance and methodological accuracy. ChimERA is a 3-year project (2013-2016), funded by Cefic's Long Range Initiative (LRI) that aims to address

  2. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  3. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  4. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  5. How does EPA assess risks of chemicals to birds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) evaluates the risk of chemicals to birds and other non-target organisms using Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). The specific evaluations conducted under an ERA typically vary by statutory authority and available data. Under the Fede...

  6. An approach to grouping species for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hampton, N.L.; VanHorn, R.L.; Morris, R.; Brewer, R.

    1994-01-01

    The ecological risk assessment (ERA) paradigm acknowledges all levels of ecological organization as having potential for defining assessment and measurement endpoints. However, assessment goals and endpoints are generally concentrated at individual species and population levels. As part of a sitewide, screening-level ERA process at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), a ''functional group'' approach was developed to incorporate assessment at a higher level of ecological organization into the risk analysis process. Functional groups demonstrating biological similarity and similar potential for contaminant exposure were developed using taxonomic, trophic and habitat parameters. As defined, all species are potential surrogates for the other members of the same functional group. Measurement endpoint data for several species may be integrated to address the risk to the group as a whole. The functional group concept was applied throughout the problem formulation, analysis, and risk characterization phases of the assessment process. This approach allows the ERA to be focused on risk to the integrity of individual functional groups, which can subsequently be related to guild and community integrity

  7. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartsch, Detlef; Chueca, Cristina; De-Schrijver, Adinda

    risk evaluation. The scientific Panel on Genetically Modified Organisms (of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA GMO Panel) considers seven specific areas of concern to be addressed by applicants and risk assessors during the ERA (1) persistence and invasiveness of the GM plant , or its compatible......This document provides guidance for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of genetically modified (GM) plants submitted within the framework of Regulation (EC) No. 1829/2003 on GM food and feed or under Directive 2001/18/EC on the deliberate release into the environment of genetically modified...... organisms (GMOs). This document provides guidance for assessing potential effects of GM plants on the environment and the rationales for the data requirements for a comprehensive ERA of GM plants. The ERA should be carried out on a case-by-case basis, following a step-by-step assessment approach...

  8. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  9. Environmental risk assessment of chemicals and nanomaterials--The best foundation for regulatory decision-making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syberg, Kristian; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2016-01-15

    Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is often considered as the most transparent, objective and reliable decision-making tool for informing the risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials. ERAs are based on the assumption that it is possible to provide accurate estimates of hazard and exposure and, subsequently, to quantify risk. In this paper we argue that since the quantification of risk is dominated by uncertainties, ERAs do not provide a transparent or an objective foundation for decision-making and they should therefore not be considered as a "holy grail" for informing risk management. We build this thesis on the analysis of two case studies (of nonylphenol and nanomaterials) as well as a historical analysis in which we address the scientific foundation for ERAs. The analyses show that ERAs do not properly address all aspects of actual risk, such as the mixture effect and the environmentally realistic risk from nanomaterials. Uncertainties have been recognised for decades, and assessment factors are used to compensate for the lack of realism in ERAs. The assessment factors' values were pragmatically determined, thus lowering the scientific accuracy of the ERAs. Furthermore, the default choice of standard assay for assessing a hazard might not always be the most biologically relevant, so we therefore argue that an ERA should be viewed as a pragmatic decision-making tool among several, and it should not have a special status for informing risk management. In relation to other relevant decision-making tools we discuss the use of chemical alternative assessments (CAAs) and the precautionary principle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  11. Protection goals in environmental risk assessment: a practical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Alonso, Monica; Raybould, Alan

    2014-12-01

    Policy protection goals are set up in most countries to minimise harm to the environment, humans and animals caused by human activities. Decisions on whether to approve new agricultural products, like pesticides or genetically modified (GM) crops, take into account these policy protection goals. To support decision-making, applications for approval of commercial uses of GM crops usually comprise an environmental risk assessment (ERA). These risk assessments are analytical tools, based on science, that follow a conceptual model that includes a problem formulation step where policy protection goals are considered. However, in most countries, risk assessors face major problems in that policy protection goals set in the legislation are stated in very broad terms and are too ambiguous to be directly applicable in ERAs. This means that risk assessors often have to interpret policy protection goals without clear guidance on what effects would be considered harmful. In this paper we propose a practical approach that may help risk assessors to translate policy protection goals into unambiguous (i.e., operational) protection goals and to establish relevant assessment endpoints and risk hypotheses that can be used in ERAs. Examples are provided to show how this approach can be applied to two areas of environmental concern relevant to the ERAs of GM crops.

  12. Methodology for environmental risk assessment associated with the use of veterinary medicinal products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana Valentina Tihulca

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Environmental risk assessment (ERA is mandatory for all new applications for centralized marketing authorization or national regardless of their legal basis. ERA aims to protect the environment. Risk assessment has two phases of veterinary product evaluation possible role of exposure and its effects. Phase I of the ERA isbased on filling a decision tree with 19 questions. If the answers to these questions do not stop the assessment at this stage then is advancing to Phase II. It uses a two stage approach stage A and stage B. The first stage, stage A, studies using simple, less expensive studies. I f the assessment is not complete, then is appealed to Step B to drill ERA. If there is still a risk indicator after filling and assessment in stage B, then, to mitigate risk, is recommended the file discussing and of the proposals for additional data.

  13. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  14. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A; Euling, Susan Y; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P

    2013-09-15

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA)--i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on "augmentation" of weight of evidence--using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards "integration" of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for "expansion" of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual "reorientation" of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A., E-mail: chiu.weihsueh@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States); Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes.

  16. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P.

    2013-01-01

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes

  17. SPECIAL SECTION: Perspectives of the Scientific Community on the Status of Ecological Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power; Adams

    1997-11-01

    / Views from a wide variety of practicing environmental professionals on the current status of ecological risk assessment (ERA) indicate consensus and divergence of opinion on the utility and practice of risk assessment. Central to the debate were the issues of whether ERA appropriately incorporates ecological and scientific principle into its conceptual paradigm. Advocates argue that ERA effectively does both, noting that much of the fault detractors find with the process has more to do with its practice than its purpose. Critics argue that failure to validate ERA predictions and the tendency to over-simplify ecological principles compromise the integrity of ERA and may lead to misleading advice on the appropriate responses to environmental problems. All authors felt that many improvements could be made, including validation, better definition of the ecological questions and boundaries of ERA, improved harmonization of selected methods, and improvements in the knowledge base. Despite identified deficiencies, most authors felt that ERA was a useful process undergoing evolutionary changes that will inevitably determine the range of environmental problems to which it can be appropriately applied. The views expressed give ERA a cautious vote of approval and highlight many of the critical strengths and weaknesses in one of our most important environmental assessment tools.KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment; Ecology; Probability

  18. How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Sven Ove

    2018-02-26

    Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three-step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk-exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk-benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Coverage of endangered species in environmental risk assessments at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    The EFSA performs environmental risk assessment (ERA) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives, and for invasive alien species that are harmful to plant health. This ERA focusses primarily on the use or spread of such

  20. BIOLOGICAL RESPONSES OF THE SEA URCHIN, ARBACIA PUNTULATA, TO LEAD CONTAMINATION FOR AN ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    An estuarine ecological risk assessment for the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNS) Kittery, ME, was conducted utilizing the U.S. EPA's Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). As part of the analysis phase of the ERA, laboratory studies were conducted to develop quantitative ...

  1. Coordinating ecological risk assessment with natural resource damage assessment: A panel discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Brenda; Ammann, Mike; Hoff, Rebecca; Huston, Mark; Jenkins, Kenneth; Palagyi, Tony; Pelto, Karen; Rettig, Todd; Wagner, Anne

    2016-10-01

    Contaminated sites in the United States undergo remediation and restoration through regulatory programs that lead the 2 processes through independent but often parallel pathways with different objectives. The objective of remediation is to reduce risk to human health and the environment, whereas that of restoration is to restore injured resources and compensate the public for lost use of the services that natural resources provide. More complex sites, such as those associated with large river systems and urban waterways, have resulted in increasingly larger-scale ecological risk assessments (ERAs) and natural resource damage assessments (NRDAs) that take many years and involve diverse practitioners including scientists, economists, and engineers. Substantial levels of effort are now frequently required, creating a need for more efficient and cost-effective approaches to data collection, analyses, and assessments. Because there are commonalities in the data needs between ERAs and NRDAs, coordination of the design and implementation of site-specific studies that meet the needs of both programs could result in increased efficiency and lower costs. The Association for Environmental Health and Sciences Foundation convened a panel of environmental practitioners from industry, consulting, and regulatory bodies to examine the benefits and challenges associated with coordinating ERA and NRDA activities in the context of a broad range of regulatory programs. This brief communication presents the opinions and conclusions of the panelists on these issues and reports 2 case studies for which coordinated ERA and NRDA activities produced a positive outcome. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:616-621. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

  2. Interpretation and evaluation of the US Environmental Protection Agency ecological risk assessment guidelines

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Murray, K

    1999-10-01

    Full Text Available In order to facilitate a common understanding, on-going debate and increasing application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in South Africa, the ERA process of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been summarised and evaluated...

  3. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janeck J. Scott‐Fordsmand

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA for nanomaterials (NMs is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i materials, (ii release, fate and exposure, (iii hazard and (iv risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES and relevant exposure scenarios (RES and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC, but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC, either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  4. Environmental Risk Assessment Strategy for Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Semenzin, Elena; Nowack, Bernd; Hunt, Neil; Hristozov, Danail; Marcomini, Antonio; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Jiménez, Araceli Sánchez; Landsiedel, Robert; Tran, Lang; Oomen, Agnes G; Bos, Peter M J; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2017-10-19

    An Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for nanomaterials (NMs) is outlined in this paper. Contrary to other recent papers on the subject, the main data requirements, models and advancement within each of the four risk assessment domains are described, i.e., in the: (i) materials, (ii) release, fate and exposure, (iii) hazard and (iv) risk characterisation domains. The material, which is obviously the foundation for any risk assessment, should be described according to the legislatively required characterisation data. Characterisation data will also be used at various levels within the ERA, e.g., exposure modelling. The release, fate and exposure data and models cover the input for environmental distribution models in order to identify the potential (PES) and relevant exposure scenarios (RES) and, subsequently, the possible release routes, both with regard to which compartment(s) NMs are distributed in line with the factors determining the fate within environmental compartment. The initial outcome in the risk characterisation will be a generic Predicted Environmental Concentration (PEC), but a refined PEC can be obtained by applying specific exposure models for relevant media. The hazard information covers a variety of representative, relevant and reliable organisms and/or functions, relevant for the RES and enabling a hazard characterisation. The initial outcome will be hazard characterisation in test systems allowing estimating a Predicted No-Effect concentration (PNEC), either based on uncertainty factors or on a NM adapted version of the Species Sensitivity Distributions approach. The risk characterisation will either be based on a deterministic risk ratio approach (i.e., PEC/PNEC) or an overlay of probability distributions, i.e., exposure and hazard distributions, using the nano relevant models.

  5. Site-specific probabilistic ecological risk assessment of a volatile chlorinated hydrocarbon-contaminated tidal estuary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, James; Birch, Gavin; Warne, Michael St J

    2010-05-01

    Groundwater contaminated with volatile chlorinated hydrocarbons (VCHs) was identified as discharging to Penrhyn Estuary, an intertidal embayment of Botany Bay, New South Wales, Australia. A screening-level hazard assessment of surface water in Penrhyn Estuary identified an unacceptable hazard to marine organisms posed by VCHs. Given the limitations of hazard assessments, the present study conducted a higher-tier, quantitative probabilistic risk assessment using the joint probability curve (JPC) method that accounted for variability in exposure and toxicity profiles to quantify risk (delta). Risk was assessed for 24 scenarios, including four areas of the estuary based on three exposure scenarios (low tide, high tide, and both low and high tides) and two toxicity scenarios (chronic no-observed-effect concentrations [NOEC] and 50% effect concentrations [EC50]). Risk (delta) was greater at low tide than at high tide and varied throughout the tidal cycle. Spatial distributions of risk in the estuary were similar using both NOEC and EC50 data. The exposure scenario including data combined from both tides was considered the most accurate representation of the ecological risk in the estuary. When assessing risk using data across both tides, the greatest risk was identified in the Springvale tributary (delta=25%)-closest to the source area-followed by the inner estuary (delta=4%) and the Floodvale tributary (delta=2%), with the lowest risk in the outer estuary (delta=0.1%), farthest from the source area. Going from the screening level ecological risk assessment (ERA) to the probabilistic ERA changed the risk from unacceptable to acceptable in 50% of exposure scenarios in two of the four areas within the estuary. The probabilistic ERA provided a more realistic assessment of risk than the screening-level hazard assessment. Copyright (c) 2010 SETAC.

  6. Sudbury soils study : summary of volume 3 : ecological risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-03-15

    The Sudbury soils study was comprised of 3 volumes: (1) a background, study organization and 2001 soils survey; (2) a human health risk assessment; and (3) an ecological risk assessment (ERA). This document provided details of the ERA, which was conducted to characterize the current and future risks of chemicals of concern (COC) to terrestrial and ecosystem components from Sudbury smelter particulate emissions. The extent to which COC are preventing the recovery of regionally representative terrestrial plant communities was investigated. Risks to terrestrial wildlife populations and endangered species and communities were evaluated. Samples of soil, water, sediment, plants, terrestrial invertebrates, and fish tissue were collected. Data were then analyzed by scientists and independent consultants in order to assess the impacts of arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, copper, lead, nickel and selenium. Results of the study indicated that terrestrial plant communities in the region continue to be impacted by COC in the soil, as well as by soil erosion, low nutrient levels, and a lack of soil organic matter. Direct impacts on wildlife populations were also observed. 5 refs., 7 tabs., 21 figs.

  7. Combining lifecycle and risk assessments of mineral waste reuse scenarios for decision making support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Perrodin, Yves

    2007-01-01

    Lack of regulations and standards on mineral waste recycling makes Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) useful methods for environmental assessment of recycling scenarios. An unsolved problem arises whenever two scenarios of recycling have to be compared according to both ERA and LCA impact results considered simultaneously. A methodology to combine LCA and ERA results and tools toward Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA) is proposed together with three application examples based on case studies. The most effective combination approach is to define further impact categories for ERA to be considered with the standard LCA ones. Then, the use of a multicriteria analysis method was proved to be an efficient way to rank alternative scenarios with respect to all the results. The key issues to be further researched are discussed and proposals are suggested

  8. Ecological Risk Assessment in Water Resource Management ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The US EPA published guidelines for the application of ecological risk assessment (ERA) in the USA in 1998 (US EPA 1998). The process diagram derived by Murray and Claassen (1999) in an evaluation of the US EPA framework is discussed in the context of the South African National Water Act. The evaluation discusses ...

  9. The role of ecological models in linking ecological risk assessment to ecosystem services in agroecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galic, N.G.; Schmolke, A.; Forbes, V.; Baveco, J.M.; Brink, van den P.J.

    2012-01-01

    Agricultural practices are essential for sustaining the human population, but at the same time they can directly disrupt ecosystem functioning. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) aims to estimate possible adverse effects of human activities on ecosystems and their parts. Current ERA practices,

  10. Priorities to improve the ecological risk assessment and management for pesticides in surface water

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2013-01-01

    This article deals with prospective and retrospective ecological risk assessment (ERA) procedures for pesticides in surface waters as carried out under European legislation (Regulation 1107/2009/EC; Directive 2009/128/EC; Directive 2000/60/EC). Priorities to improve the aquatic risk assessment and

  11. Ecological recovery in ERA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    EFSA Scientific Committee (Scientific Committee); Topping, Christopher John

    2016-01-01

    knowledge and data retrieved from the literature. Finally, the information presented in this opinion was reviewed by experts from the relevant EFSA Panels, European risk assessment bodies and through an open consultation requesting input from stakeholders. A conceptual framework was developed to address...... recognises the importance of more integrated ERAs considering both the local and landscape scales, as well as the possible co-occurrence of multiple potential stressors that fall under the remit of EFSA, which are important when addressing ecological recovery. In this scientific opinion, the Scientific...... Committee gathered scientific knowledge on the potential for the recovery of non-target organisms for the further development of ERA. Current EFSA guidance documents and opinions were reviewed on how ecological recovery is addressed in ERA schemes. In addition, this scientific opinion is based on expert...

  12. An Environmental Risk Assessment for Human-Use Trimethoprim in European Surface Waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Straub, Jürg Oliver

    2013-01-01

    An environmental risk assessment (ERA) for the aquatic compartment in Europe from human use was developed for the old antibiotic Trimethoprim (TMP), comparing exposure and effects. The exposure assessment is based on European risk assessment default values on one hand and is refined with documented human use figures in Western Europe from IMS Health and measured removal in wastewater treatment on the other. The resulting predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) are compared with measured environmental concentrations (MECs) from Europe, based on a large dataset incorporating more than 1800 single MECs. On the effects side, available chronic ecotoxicity data from the literature were complemented by additional, new chronic results for fish and other organisms. Based on these data, chronic-based deterministic predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs) were derived as well as two different probabilistic PNEC ranges. The ERA compares surface water PECs and MECs with aquatic PNECs for TMP. Based on all the risk characterization ratios (PEC÷PNEC as well as MEC÷PNEC) and risk graphs, there is no significant risk to surface waters. PMID:27029296

  13. An Environmental Risk Assessment for Human-Use Trimethoprim in European Surface Waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jürg Oliver Straub

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available An environmental risk assessment (ERA for the aquatic compartment in Europe from human use was developed for the old antibiotic Trimethoprim (TMP, comparing exposure and effects. The exposure assessment is based on European risk assessment default values on one hand and is refined with documented human use figures in Western Europe from IMS Health and measured removal in wastewater treatment on the other. The resulting predicted environmental concentrations (PECs are compared with measured environmental concentrations (MECs from Europe, based on a large dataset incorporating more than 1800 single MECs. On the effects side, available chronic ecotoxicity data from the literature were complemented by additional, new chronic results for fish and other organisms. Based on these data, chronic-based deterministic predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs were derived as well as two different probabilistic PNEC ranges. The ERA compares surface water PECs and MECs with aquatic PNECs for TMP. Based on all the risk characterization ratios (PEC÷PNEC as well as MEC÷PNEC and risk graphs, there is no significant risk to surface waters.

  14. Ecological risk assessment at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory: Overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    VanHorn, R.; Bensen, T.; Green, T.; Hampton, N.; Staley, C.; Morris, R.; Brewer, R.; Peterson, S.

    1994-01-01

    The paper will present an overview of the methods and results of the screening level ecological risk assessment (ERA) performed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). The INEL is a site with some distinct characteristics. First it is a large Department of Energy (DOE) laboratory (2,300 km 2 ) having experienced 40 years of nuclear material production operations. Secondly, it is a relatively undisturbed cold desert ecosystem. Neither of these issues have been sufficiently addressed in previous ERAs. It was necessary in many instances to develop methods that differed from those used in other studies. This paper should provide useful methodologies for the ERAs performed at other similar sites

  15. Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, Donovan L.; Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Go, Susie

    2014-01-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

  16. Risk of melanoma in people with HIV/AIDS in the pre- and post-HAART eras: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Catherine M; Knight, Lani L; Green, Adèle C

    2014-01-01

    Following the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) the risk of AIDS-defining cancers decreased but incidence of many non-AIDS-defining cancers has reportedly increased in those with HIV/AIDS. Whether melanoma risk has also changed in HIV/AIDS patients post-HAART is unknown and therefore we evaluated this in comparison with the risk before HAART. Systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched Medline, Embase and ISI science citation index databases to April 2013. All cohort studies of patients diagnosed with HIV/AIDS that permitted quantitative assessment of the association with melanoma were eligible. Detailed quality assessment of eligible studies was conducted, focussing particularly on adjustment for ethnicity, a priori considered essential for an unbiased assessment of melanoma risk. Data were pooled using a random effects model. From 288 articles, we identified 21 that met the inclusion criteria, 13 presenting data for the post-HAART era and 8 for the pre-HAART era. Post-HAART the pooled relative risk (pRR) for the association between HIV/AIDS and melanoma was 1.26 (95% CI, 0.97-1.64) and 1.50 (95% CI 1.12-2.01) among studies that accounted for ethnicity, with evidence of significant heterogeneity (P = 0.004, I2 = 55.5). Pre-HAART pRRs were 1.26 (95% CI 1.11-1.43; P het = 0.82) and 1.28 (95% CI 1.10-1.49) among studies adjusted for ethnicity. People with HIV/AIDS remain at a significantly increased risk of developing melanoma in the post-HAART era. White skinned people with HIV/AIDS should be screened regularly and counselled against excessive sun exposure.

  17. An Environmental Risk Assessment for Human-Use Trimethoprim in European Surface Waters

    OpenAIRE

    Straub, J?rg Oliver

    2013-01-01

    An environmental risk assessment (ERA) for the aquatic compartment in Europe from human use was developed for the old antibiotic Trimethoprim (TMP), comparing exposure and effects. The exposure assessment is based on European risk assessment default values on one hand and is refined with documented human use figures in Western Europe from IMS Health and measured removal in wastewater treatment on the other. The resulting predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) are compared with measured...

  18. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment : a review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Oost, Ron; Beyer, Jonny; Vermeulen, Nico P E

    In this review, a wide array of bioaccumulation markers and biomarkers, used to demonstrate exposure to and effects of environmental contaminants, has been discussed in relation to their feasibility in environmental risk assessment (ERA). Fish bioaccumulation markers may be applied in order to

  19. Mesocosm soil ecological risk assessment tool for GMO 2nd tier studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'Annibale, Alessandra; Maraldo, Kristine; Larsen, Thomas

    Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of GMO is basically identical to ERA of chemical substances, when it comes to assessing specific effects of the GMO plant material on the soil ecosystem. The tiered approach always includes the option of studying more complex but still realistic ecosystem level...... effects in 2nd tier caged experimental systems, cf. the new GMO ERA guidance: EFSA Journal 2010; 8(11):1879. We propose to perform a trophic structure analysis, TSA, and include the trophic structure as an ecological endpoint to gain more direct insight into the change in interactions between species, i.......e. the food-web structure, instead of relying only on the indirect evidence from population abundances. The approach was applied for effect assessment in the agro-ecosystem where we combined factors of elevated CO2, viz. global climate change, and GMO plant effects. A multi-species (Collembola, Acari...

  20. Application of Bayesian networks in a hierarchical structure for environmental risk assessment: a case study of the Gabric Dam, Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malekmohammadi, Bahram; Tayebzadeh Moghadam, Negar

    2018-04-13

    Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a commonly used, effective tool applied to reduce adverse effects of environmental risk factors. In this study, ERA was investigated using the Bayesian network (BN) model based on a hierarchical structure of variables in an influence diagram (ID). ID facilitated ranking of the different alternatives under uncertainty that were then used to evaluate comparisons of the different risk factors. BN was used to present a new model for ERA applicable to complicated development projects such as dam construction. The methodology was applied to the Gabric Dam, in southern Iran. The main environmental risk factors in the region, presented by the Gabric Dam, were identified based on the Delphi technique and specific features of the study area. These included the following: flood, water pollution, earthquake, changes in land use, erosion and sedimentation, effects on the population, and ecosensitivity. These risk factors were then categorized based on results from the output decision node of the BN, including expected utility values for risk factors in the decision node. ERA was performed for the Gabric Dam using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method to compare results of BN modeling with those of conventional methods. Results determined that a BN-based hierarchical structure to ERA present acceptable and reasonable risk assessment prioritization in proposing suitable solutions to reduce environmental risks and can be used as a powerful decision support system for evaluating environmental risks.

  1. Principles and issues in radiological ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Daniel; Domotor, Stephen; Higley, Kathryn; Kocher, David; Bilyard, Gordon

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides a bridge between the fields of ecological risk assessment (ERA) and radioecology by presenting key biota dose assessment issues identified in the US Department of Energy's Graded Approach for Evaluating Radiation Doses to Aquatic and Terrestrial Biota in a manner consistent with the US Environmental Protection Agency's framework for ERA. Current radiological ERA methods and data are intended for use in protecting natural populations of biota, rather than individual members of a population. Potentially susceptible receptors include vertebrates and terrestrial plants. One must ensure that all media, radionuclides (including short-lived radioactive decay products), types of radiations (i.e., alpha particles, electrons, and photons), and pathways (i.e., internal and external contamination) are combined in each exposure scenario. The relative biological effectiveness of alpha particles with respect to deterministic effects must also be considered. Expected safe levels of exposure are available for the protection of natural populations of aquatic biota (10 mGy d(-1)) and terrestrial plants (10 mGy d(-1)) and animals (1 mGy d(-1)) and are appropriate for use in all radiological ERA tiers, provided that appropriate exposure assumptions are used. Caution must be exercised (and a thorough justification provided) if more restrictive limits are selected, to ensure that the supporting data are of high quality, reproducible, and clearly relevant to the protection of natural populations.

  2. Biodiversity, ecosystem functions and services in environmental risk assessment: introduction to the special issue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schäfer, Ralf B

    2012-01-15

    This Special Issue focuses on the questions if and how biodiversity, ecosystem functions and resulting services could be incorporated into the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). Therefore, three articles provide a framework for the integration of ecosystem services into ERA of soils, sediments and pesticides. Further articles demonstrate ways how stakeholders can be integrated into an ecosystem service-based ERA for soils and describe how the current monitoring could be adapted to new assessment endpoints that are directly linked to ecosystem services. Case studies show that the current ERA may not be protective for biodiversity, ecosystem functions and resulting services and that both pesticides and salinity currently adversely affect ecosystem functions in the field. Moreover, ecological models can be used for prediction of new protection goals and could finally support their implementation into the ERA. Overall, the Special Issue stresses the urgent need to enhance current procedures of ERA if biodiversity, ecosystem functions and resulting services are to be protected. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Genetically modified crops and aquatic ecosystems: considerations for environmental risk assessment and non-target organism testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carstens, Keri; Anderson, Jennifer; Bachman, Pamela; De Schrijver, Adinda; Dively, Galen; Federici, Brian; Hamer, Mick; Gielkens, Marco; Jensen, Peter; Lamp, William; Rauschen, Stefan; Ridley, Geoff; Romeis, Jörg; Waggoner, Annabel

    2012-08-01

    Environmental risk assessments (ERA) support regulatory decisions for the commercial cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops. The ERA for terrestrial agroecosystems is well-developed, whereas guidance for ERA of GM crops in aquatic ecosystems is not as well-defined. The purpose of this document is to demonstrate how comprehensive problem formulation can be used to develop a conceptual model and to identify potential exposure pathways, using Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) maize as a case study. Within problem formulation, the insecticidal trait, the crop, the receiving environment, and protection goals were characterized, and a conceptual model was developed to identify routes through which aquatic organisms may be exposed to insecticidal proteins in maize tissue. Following a tiered approach for exposure assessment, worst-case exposures were estimated using standardized models, and factors mitigating exposure were described. Based on exposure estimates, shredders were identified as the functional group most likely to be exposed to insecticidal proteins. However, even using worst-case assumptions, the exposure of shredders to Bt maize was low and studies supporting the current risk assessments were deemed adequate. Determining if early tier toxicity studies are necessary to inform the risk assessment for a specific GM crop should be done on a case by case basis, and should be guided by thorough problem formulation and exposure assessment. The processes used to develop the Bt maize case study are intended to serve as a model for performing risk assessments on future traits and crops.

  4. The pros and cons of ecological risk assessment based on data from different levels of biological organization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R.; Salice, Christopher J.; Nisbet, Roger M.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is the process used to evaluate the safety of manufactured chemicals to the environment. Here we review the pros and cons of ERA across levels of biological organization, including suborganismal (e.g. biomarkers), individual, population, community, ecosystem, and landscapes levels. Our review revealed that level of biological organization is often related negatively with ease at assessing cause-effect relationships, ease of high-throughput screening of large numbers of chemicals (it is especially easier for suborganismal endpoints), and uncertainty of the ERA because low levels of biological organization tend to have a large distance between their measurement (what is quantified) and assessment endpoints (what is to be protected). In contrast, level of biological organization is often related positively with sensitivity to important negative and positive feedbacks and context dependencies within biological systems, and ease at capturing recovery from adverse contaminant effects. Some endpoints did not show obvious trends across levels of biological organization, such as the use of vertebrate animals in chemical testing and ease at screening large numbers of species, and other factors lacked sufficient data across levels of biological organization, such as repeatability, variability, cost per study, and cost per species of effects assessment, the latter of which might be a more defensible way to compare costs of ERAs than cost per study. To compensate for weaknesses of ERA at any particular level of biological organization, we also review mathematical modeling approaches commonly used to extrapolate effects across levels of organization. Finally, we provide recommendations for next generation ERA, submitting that if there is an ideal level of biological organization to conduct ERA, it will only emerge if ERA is approached simultaneously from the bottom of biological organization up as well as from the top down, all while employing

  5. The pros and cons of ecological risk assessment based on data from different levels of biological organization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Jason R; Salice, Christopher J; Nisbet, Roger M

    2016-10-01

    Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is the process used to evaluate the safety of manufactured chemicals to the environment. Here we review the pros and cons of ERA across levels of biological organization, including suborganismal (e.g., biomarkers), individual, population, community, ecosystem and landscapes levels. Our review revealed that level of biological organization is often related negatively with ease at assessing cause-effect relationships, ease of high-throughput screening of large numbers of chemicals (it is especially easier for suborganismal endpoints), and uncertainty of the ERA because low levels of biological organization tend to have a large distance between their measurement (what is quantified) and assessment endpoints (what is to be protected). In contrast, level of biological organization is often related positively with sensitivity to important negative and positive feedbacks and context dependencies within biological systems, and ease at capturing recovery from adverse contaminant effects. Some endpoints did not show obvious trends across levels of biological organization, such as the use of vertebrate animals in chemical testing and ease at screening large numbers of species, and other factors lacked sufficient data across levels of biological organization, such as repeatability, variability, cost per study and cost per species of effects assessment, the latter of which might be a more defensible way to compare costs of ERAs than cost per study. To compensate for weaknesses of ERA at any particular level of biological organization, we also review mathematical modeling approaches commonly used to extrapolate effects across levels of organization. Finally, we provide recommendations for next generation ERA, submitting that if there is an ideal level of biological organization to conduct ERA, it will only emerge if ERA is approached simultaneously from the bottom of biological organization up as well as from the top down, all while employing

  6. Ecological risk assessment for radiological and chemical contaminants at a site with historical contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garisto, N.C.; Janes, A.; Peters, R.

    2010-01-01

    An Ecological Risk Assessment was carried out for a uranium conversion facility in Ontario, located on a site with a history of contamination. The ERA assessed risk to aquatic and terrestrial biota from exposure to radionuclides and non-radionuclides in soil and groundwater associated with the site. The results indicated no undue risk to aquatic biota from radionuclides. Small potential risks were identified for terrestrial biota at limited locations associated with this industrial site. Recommendations are provided for follow-up risk-informed activities. (author)

  7. An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Topuz, E.; van Gestel, C.A.M.

    2016-01-01

    The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and

  8. A Framework for Linking Population Model Development with Ecological Risk Assessment Objectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The value of models that link organism‐level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERAs) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism&#...

  9. Problem formulation for risk assessment of combined exposures to chemicals and other stressors in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Keith R; Wilks, Martin F; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Moretto, Angelo; Pastoor, Timothy P; Phillips, Richard; Embry, Michelle R

    2016-11-01

    When the human health risk assessment/risk management paradigm was developed, it did not explicitly include a "problem formulation" phase. The concept of problem formulation was first introduced in the context of ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the pragmatic reason to constrain and focus ERAs on the key questions. However, this need also exists for human health risk assessment, particularly for cumulative risk assessment (CRA), because of its complexity. CRA encompasses the combined threats to health from exposure via all relevant routes to multiple stressors, including biological, chemical, physical and psychosocial stressors. As part of the HESI Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) Project, a framework for CRA was developed in which problem formulation plays a critical role. The focus of this effort is primarily on a chemical CRA (i.e., two or more chemicals) with subsequent consideration of non-chemical stressors, defined as "modulating factors" (ModFs). Problem formulation is a systematic approach that identifies all factors critical to a specific risk assessment and considers the purpose of the assessment, scope and depth of the necessary analysis, analytical approach, available resources and outcomes, and overall risk management goal. There are numerous considerations that are specific to multiple stressors, and proper problem formulation can help to focus a CRA to the key factors in order to optimize resources. As part of the problem formulation, conceptual models for exposures and responses can be developed that address these factors, such as temporal relationships between stressors and consideration of the appropriate ModFs.

  10. Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

  11. Incidence and risk factors of HIV-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy: a European multicohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohlius, Julia; Schmidlin, Kurt; Costagliola, Dominique

    2009-01-01

    Incidence and risk factors of HIV-associated non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are not well defined in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).......Incidence and risk factors of HIV-associated non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are not well defined in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)....

  12. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  13. Prediction of critical illness in elderly outpatients using elder risk assessment: a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biehl M

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Michelle Biehl,1 Paul Y Takahashi,2 Stephen S Cha,3 Rajeev Chaudhry,2 Ognjen Gajic,1 Bjorg Thorsteinsdottir2 1Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Medicine, 2Division of Primary Care Internal Medicine, 3Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA Rationale: Identifying patients at high risk of critical illness is necessary for the development and testing of strategies to prevent critical illness. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between high elder risk assessment (ERA score and critical illness requiring intensive care and to see if the ERA can be used as a prediction tool to identify elderly patients at the primary care visit who are at high risk of critical illness. Methods: A population-based historical cohort study was conducted in elderly patients (age >65 years identified at the time of primary care visit in Rochester, MN, USA. Predictors including age, previous hospital days, and comorbid health conditions were identified from routine administrative data available in the electronic medical record. The main outcome was critical illness, defined as sepsis, need for mechanical ventilation, or death within 2 years of initial visit. Patients with an ERA score of 16 were considered to be at high risk. The discrimination of the ERA score was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Of the 13,457 eligible patients, 9,872 gave consent for medical record review and had full information on intensive care unit utilization. The mean age was 75.8 years (standard deviation ±7.6 years, and 58% were female, 94% were Caucasian, 62% were married, and 13% were living in nursing homes. In the overall group, 417 patients (4.2% suffered from critical illness. In the 1,134 patients with ERA >16, 154 (14% suffered from critical illness. An ERA score ≥16 predicted critical illness (odds ratio 6.35; 95% confidence interval 3.51–11.48. The area under the

  14. Ecological risk assessment of pesticides in the EU

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hunka, Agnieszka; Meli, Mattia; Palmqvist, Annemette

    2015-01-01

    . As we followed the advocacy coalition framework, our findings focus on stakeholders’ processes, interrelations and values behind the ERA policy change. The main challenges emerging from our analysis turned out to be the slow uptake of scientific developments into ERA and very broadly defined protection......-protectiveness lies deep in the perception of stakeholders and depends greatly on their priorities. Academics strive for better ecological relevance as a priority. They have concerns that ERA is oversimplified. Regulators worry that ERA relies too much on risk mitigation and is possibly not protective enough...

  15. Development of a framework based on an ecosystem services approach for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk assessment of pesticides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forbes, Valery E.; Nienstedt, Karin M.; Brock, T. C. M.

    2012-01-01

    General protection goals for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of plant protection products are stated in European legislation but specific protection goals (SPGs) are often not precisely defined. These are however crucial for designing appropriate risk assessment schemes. The process...... followed by the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) as well as examples of resulting SPGs obtained so far for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is presented. The ecosystem services approach was used as an overarching...... and geographical scale of the effect, and the degree of certainty that the specified level of effect will not be exceeded. In general, to ensure ecosystem services, taxa representative for the key drivers identified need to be protected at the population level. However, for some vertebrates and species that have...

  16. Capturing ecology in modeling approaches applied to environmental risk assessment of endocrine active chemicals in fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintram, Kate S; Brown, A Ross; Maynard, Samuel K; Thorbek, Pernille; Tyler, Charles R

    2018-02-01

    Endocrine active chemicals (EACs) are widespread in freshwater environments and both laboratory and field based studies have shown reproductive effects in fish at environmentally relevant exposures. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) seeks to protect wildlife populations and prospective assessments rely on extrapolation from individual-level effects established for laboratory fish species to populations of wild fish using arbitrary safety factors. Population susceptibility to chemical effects, however, depends on exposure risk, physiological susceptibility, and population resilience, each of which can differ widely between fish species. Population models have significant potential to address these shortfalls and to include individual variability relating to life-history traits, demographic and density-dependent vital rates, and behaviors which arise from inter-organism and organism-environment interactions. Confidence in population models has recently resulted in the EU Commission stating that results derived from reliable models may be considered when assessing the relevance of adverse effects of EACs at the population level. This review critically assesses the potential risks posed by EACs for fish populations, considers the ecological factors influencing these risks and explores the benefits and challenges of applying population modeling (including individual-based modeling) in ERA for EACs in fish. We conclude that population modeling offers a way forward for incorporating greater environmental relevance in assessing the risks of EACs for fishes and for identifying key risk factors through sensitivity analysis. Individual-based models (IBMs) allow for the incorporation of physiological and behavioral endpoints relevant to EAC exposure effects, thus capturing both direct and indirect population-level effects.

  17. Phase two of Site 300's ecological risk assessment: Model verification and risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlson, T.M.; Gregory, S.D.

    1995-01-01

    The authors completed the baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Site 300 in 1993. Using data collection and modeling techniques adapted from the human health risk assessment (HRA), they evaluated the potential hazard of contaminants in environmental media to ecological receptors. They identified potential hazards to (1) aquatic invertebrates from heavy metal contaminants in surface water, (2) burrowing vertebrates from contaminants volatilizing from subsurface soil into burrow air, and (3) grazing deer and burrowing vertebrates from cadmium contamination in surface soil. They recently began collecting data to refine the estimates of potential hazard to these ecological receptors. Bioassay results form the surface water failed to verify a hazard to aquatic invertebrates. Soil vapor surveys of subsurface burrows did verify the presence of high concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). However, they have not yet verified a true impact on the burrowing populations. The authors also completed an extensive surface soil sampling program, which identified local hot spots of cadmium contamination. In addition, they have been collecting data on the land use patterns of the deer population. Their data indicate that deer do not typically use those areas with cadmium surface soil contamination. Information from this phase of the ERA, along with the results of the HRA, will direct the selection of remedial alternatives for the site. For the ecological receptors, remedial alternatives include developing a risk management program which includes ensuring that (1) sensitive burrowing species (such as rare or endangered species) do not use areas of surface or subsurface contamination, and (2) deer populations do not use areas of surface soil contamination

  18. Prospective environmental risk assessment of mixtures in wastewater treatment plant effluents - Theoretical considerations and experimental verification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coors, Anja; Vollmar, Pia; Sacher, Frank; Polleichtner, Christian; Hassold, Enken; Gildemeister, Daniela; Kühnen, Ute

    2018-04-14

    The aquatic environment is continually exposed to a complex mixture of chemicals, whereby effluents of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are one key source. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether environmental risk assessments (ERAs) addressing individual substances are sufficiently protective for such coincidental mixtures. Based on a literature review of chemicals reported to occur in municipal WWTP effluents and mode-of-action considerations, four different types of mixtures were composed containing human pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and chemicals regulated under REACH. The experimentally determined chronic aquatic toxicity of these mixtures towards primary producers and the invertebrate Daphnia magna could be adequately predicted by the concept of concentration addition, with up to 5-fold overestimation and less than 3-fold underestimation of mixture toxicity. Effluents of a municipal WWTP had no impact on the predictability of mixture toxicity and showed no adverse effects on the test organisms. Predictive ERAs for the individual mixture components based on here derived predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs) and median measured concentrations in WWTP effluents (MC eff ) indicated no unacceptable risk for any of the individual chemicals, while MC eff /PNEC summation indicated a possible risk for multi-component mixtures. However, a refined mixture assessment based on the sum of toxic units at species level indicated no unacceptable risks, and allowed for a safety margin of more than factor 10, not taking into account any dilution of WWTP effluents by surface waters. Individual substances, namely climbazole, fenofibric acid and fluoxetine, were dominating the risks of the investigated mixtures, while added risk due to the mixture was found to be low with the risk quotient being increased by less than factor 2. Yet, uncertainty remains regarding chronic mixture toxicity in fish, which was not included in the present study. The number and

  19. Overview of representative ecological risk assessments conducted for sites with enhanced radioactivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chambers, D.B; Fernandes, S.L.; Phillips, H.A.

    2008-01-01

    Ionizing radiation is ubiquitous and all living things are, and always have been, exposed to naturally occurring radiation and radioactivity. In addition, human activities have enhanced the natural background levels of radiation and radioactivity globally and, in some cases, locally. Over the past ten or so years, numerous ecological risk assessments (ERAs) have been carried out for a number of sites involving enhanced radiation and radioactivity. The ERAs have examined a range of ecological receptors and have been performed using a variety of approaches, using different assumptions and reference radiation dose rates. A review of representative ERAs selected to encompass a wide range of activities (e.g. uranium mining, nuclear generating stations, waste management sites), locations (e.g. Canada, France, UK, Russia, USA) and ecosystems (terrestrial, freshwater and marine aquatic environments), was completed. The wide range of sites considered in this review demonstrate that the current system of radiological protection has provided an adequate level of protection to populations of non-human biota. (author)

  20. Biomarkers in molecular epidemiology study of oral squamous cell carcinoma in the era of precision medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-Hao Zhu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Oral cancer, which occurs in the mouth, lips, and tongue, is a multifactorial disease whose etiology involves environment, genetic, and epigenetic factors. Tobacco use and alcohol consumption are regarded as the primary risk factors for oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC, and betel use, other chemicals, radiation, environmental, and genetics are reported as relevant risk factors for oral carcinogenesis. The human papillomavirus infection is an independent risk factor. Traditional epidemiology studies have revealed that environmental carcinogens are risk factors for OSCC. Molecular epidemiology studies have revealed that the susceptibility to OSCC is influenced by both environmental and genetic risk factors. However, the details and mechanisms of risk factors involved in OSCC are unclear. Advanced methods and techniques used in human genome studies provide great opportunities for researchers to explore and identify (a the details of such risk factors and (b genetic susceptibility involved in OSCC. Human genome epidemiology is a new branch of epidemiology, which leads the epidemiology study from the molecular epidemiology era into the era of genome-wide association study. In the era of precision medicine, molecular epidemiology studies should focus on biomarkers for cancer genomics and their potential utility in clinical practice. Here, we briefly reviewed several molecular epidemiology studies of OSCC, focusing on biomarkers as valuable utility in risk assessment, clinical screening, diagnosis, and prognosis prediction of OSCC in the era of precision medicine.

  1. Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

    2016-12-01

    A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Establishing indices for groundwater contamination risk assessment in the vicinity of hazardous waste landfills in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ying; Li, Jinhui; Chen, Shusheng; Diao, Weihua

    2012-06-01

    Groundwater contamination by leachate is the most damaging environmental impact over the entire life of a hazardous waste landfill (HWL). With the number of HWL facilities in China rapidly increasing, and considering the poor status of environmental risk management, it is imperative that effective environmental risk management methods be implemented. A risk assessment indices system for HWL groundwater contamination is here proposed, which can simplify the risk assessment procedure and make it more user-friendly. The assessment framework and indices were drawn from five aspects: source term, underground media, leachate properties, risk receptors and landfill management quality, and a risk assessment indices system consisting of 38 cardinal indicators was established. Comparison with multimedia models revealed that the proposed indices system was integrated and quantitative, that input data for it could be easily collected, and that it could be widely used for environmental risk assessment (ERA) in China. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Developing predictive systems models to address complexity and relevance for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, Valery E; Calow, Peter

    2013-07-01

    Ecological risk assessments (ERAs) are not used as well as they could be in risk management. Part of the problem is that they often lack ecological relevance; that is, they fail to grasp necessary ecological complexities. Adding realism and complexity can be difficult and costly. We argue that predictive systems models (PSMs) can provide a way of capturing complexity and ecological relevance cost-effectively. However, addressing complexity and ecological relevance is only part of the problem. Ecological risk assessments often fail to meet the needs of risk managers by not providing assessments that relate to protection goals and by expressing risk in ratios that cannot be weighed against the costs of interventions. Once more, PSMs can be designed to provide outputs in terms of value-relevant effects that are modulated against exposure and that can provide a better basis for decision making than arbitrary ratios or threshold values. Recent developments in the modeling and its potential for implementation by risk assessors and risk managers are beginning to demonstrate how PSMs can be practically applied in risk assessment and the advantages that doing so could have. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  4. Parathyroid carcinoma survival: improvements in the era of intact parathyroid hormone monitoring?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve R. Martinez

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH assay is a critical test in the diagnosis and management of PTH-mediated hypercalcemia, including parathyroid carcinoma (PCa. We hypothesized that the survival of patients diagnosed with PCa has improved since adoption of the iPTH assay into clinical practice. We identified all confirmed cases of PCa within the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database from 1973 to 2006. Patients were categorized into two eras based upon introduction of the iPTH assay: 1973 to 1997 (era I and 1997 to 2006 (era II, when the iPTH assay was in standard use. We estimated overall survival (OS and disease-specific survival (DSS using the Kaplan-Meier method, with differences among survival curves assessed via log rank. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models compared the survival rates between treatment eras while controlling for patient age, sex, race/ethnicity, tumor size, nodal status, extent of disease, and type of surgery. Multivariate models included patients undergoing potentially curative surgery and excluded those with dis- tant metastases. Risks of overall and disease-specific mortality were reported as hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Study criteria were met by 370 patients. Median survival was 15.6 years. Five-year rates of OS and DSS were 78% and 88% for era I and 82% and 96% for era II. On multivariate analysis, age, black race, and unknown extent of disease predicted an increased risk of death from any cause. Treatment era did not predict OS. No factor predicted PCa-specific mortality. In multivariate analysis, neither OS nor DSS have improved in the current era that utilizes iPTH for the detection and management of PCa.

  5. Long-term risks of kidney living donation: review and position paper by the ERA-EDTA DESCARTES working group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maggiore, Umberto; Budde, Klemens; Heemann, Uwe; Hilbrands, Luuk; Oberbauer, Rainer; Oniscu, Gabriel C; Pascual, Julio; Schwartz Sorensen, Soren; Viklicky, Ondrej; Abramowicz, Daniel

    2017-02-01

    Two recent matched cohort studies from the USA and Norway published in 2014 have raised some concerns related to the long-term safety of kidney living donation. Further studies on the long-term risks of living donation have since been published. In this position paper, Developing Education Science and Care for Renal Transplantation in European States (DESCARTES) board members critically review the literature in an effort to summarize the current knowledge concerning long-term risks of kidney living donation to help physicians for decision-making purposes and for providing information to the prospective live donors. Long-term risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) can be partially foreseen by trying to identify donors at risk of developing ‘de novo’ kidney diseases during life post-donation and by predicting lifetime ESRD risk. However, lifetime risk may be difficult to assess in young donors, especially in those having first-degree relatives with ESRD. The study from Norway also found an increased risk of death after living donor nephrectomy, which became visible only after >15 years of post-donation follow-up. However, these findings are likely to be largely the result of an overestimation due to the confounding effect related to a family history of renal disease. DESCARTES board members emphasize the importance of optimal risk–benefit assessment and proper information to the prospective donor, which should also include recommendations on health-promoting behaviour post-donation. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  6. Mosquito control insecticides: a probabilistic ecological risk assessment on drift exposures of naled, dichlorvos (naled metabolite) and permethrin to adult butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoang, T C; Rand, G M

    2015-01-01

    A comprehensive probabilistic terrestrial ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted to characterize the potential risk of mosquito control insecticide (i.e., naled, it's metabolite dichlorvos, and permethrin) usage to adult butterflies in south Florida by comparing the probability distributions of environmental exposure concentrations following actual mosquito control applications at labeled rates from ten field monitoring studies with the probability distributions of butterfly species response (effects) data from our laboratory acute toxicity studies. The overlap of these distributions was used as a measure of risk to butterflies. The long-term viability (survival) of adult butterflies, following topical (thorax/wings) exposures was the environmental value we wanted to protect. Laboratory acute toxicity studies (24-h LD50) included topical exposures (thorax and wings) to five adult butterfly species and preparation of species sensitivity distributions (SSDs). The ERA indicated that the assessment endpoint of protection, of at least 90% of the species, 90% of the time (or the 10th percentile from the acute SSDs) from acute naled and permethrin exposures, is most likely not occurring when considering topical exposures to adults. Although the surface areas for adulticide exposures are greater for the wings, exposures to the thorax provide the highest potential for risk (i.e., SSD 10th percentile is lowest) for adult butterflies. Dichlorvos appeared to present no risk. The results of this ERA can be applied to other areas of the world, where these insecticides are used and where butterflies may be exposed. Since there are other sources (e.g., agriculture) of pesticides in the environment, where butterfly exposures will occur, the ERA may under-estimate the potential risks under real-world conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Remedial investigation report for J-Field, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. Volume 3: Ecological risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hlohowskyj, I.; Hayse, J.; Kuperman, R.; Van Lonkhuyzen, R.

    2000-02-25

    The Environmental Management Division of the U.S. Army Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG), Maryland, is conducting a remedial investigation (RI) and feasibility study (FS) of the J-Field area at APG, pursuant to the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. As part of that activity, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) conducted an ecological risk assessment (ERA) of the J-Field site. This report presents the results of that assessment.

  8. Remedial investigation report for J-Field, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. Volume 3: Ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hlohowskyj, I.; Hayse, J.; Kuperman, R.; Van Lonkhuyzen, R.

    2000-01-01

    The Environmental Management Division of the U.S. Army Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG), Maryland, is conducting a remedial investigation (RI) and feasibility study (FS) of the J-Field area at APG, pursuant to the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. As part of that activity, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) conducted an ecological risk assessment (ERA) of the J-Field site. This report presents the results of that assessment

  9. Prospective Environmental Risk Assessment for Sediment-Bound Organic Chemicals: A Proposal for Tiered Effect Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diepens, Noël J; Koelmans, Albert A; Baveco, Hans; van den Brink, Paul J; van den Heuvel-Greve, Martine J; Brock, Theo C M

    A broadly accepted framework for prospective environmental risk assessment (ERA) of sediment-bound organic chemicals is currently lacking. Such a framework requires clear protection goals, evidence-based concepts that link exposure to effects and a transparent tiered-effect assessment. In this paper, we provide a tiered prospective sediment ERA procedure for organic chemicals in sediment, with a focus on the applicable European regulations and the underlying data requirements. Using the ecosystem services concept, we derived specific protection goals for ecosystem service providing units: microorganisms, benthic algae, sediment-rooted macrophytes, benthic invertebrates and benthic vertebrates. Triggers for sediment toxicity testing are discussed.We recommend a tiered approach (Tier 0 through Tier 3). Tier-0 is a cost-effective screening based on chronic water-exposure toxicity data for pelagic species and equilibrium partitioning. Tier-1 is based on spiked sediment laboratory toxicity tests with standard benthic test species and standardised test methods. If comparable chronic toxicity data for both standard and additional benthic test species are available, the Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD) approach is a more viable Tier-2 option than the geometric mean approach. This paper includes criteria for accepting results of sediment-spiked single species toxicity tests in prospective ERA, and for the application of the SSD approach. We propose micro/mesocosm experiments with spiked sediment, to study colonisation success by benthic organisms, as a Tier-3 option. Ecological effect models can be used to supplement the experimental tiers. A strategy for unifying information from various tiers by experimental work and exposure-and effect modelling is provided.

  10. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  11. Rodent sperm analysis in field-based ecological risk assessment: pilot study at Ravenna army ammunition plant, Ravenna, Ohio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tannenbaum, L.V.; Bazar, M.; Hawkins, M.S.; Cornaby, B.W.; Ferguson, E.A.; Chantelle Carroll, L.; Ryan, P.F.

    2003-01-01

    Rodent sperm analysis is a visable method for use in field studies of risk at contaminated sites. - Ecological risk assessment (ERA) guidance recommends that field-truthing efforts proceed when modeled hazard quotients (HQs) suggest that toxicological effects are occurring to site receptors. To date, no field methods have been proposed by the regulatory community that can lead to definitive determinations of acceptable or unacceptable risk for birds and mammals, the two terrestrial classes of receptors that are commonly assessed using the HQ method. This paper describes rodent sperm analysis (RSA) as a viable method to be applied in the field at sites with historical contamination. RSA is capable of detecting biological differences that bear on reproduction, a highly regarded toxicological endpoint of concern in USEPA Superfund-type ERAs. The results of RSA's first application at a study site are reported and discussed. The paper also provides the rationale for RSA's efficacy in the context of Superfund and other environmental cleanup programs, where limited time and money are available to determine and evaluate the field condition

  12. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-10-01

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

  13. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-10-26

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

  14. Sterility and stigma in an era of HIV/AIDS: narratives of risk assessment among men and women in Botswana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upton, Rebecca L; Dolan, Edward Myers

    2011-03-01

    This paper examines the experience and interpretations of infertility and sterility in northern Botswana. Specifically it highlights the role of stigma and impression management among Tswana men and women through their narratives and discourse about childbearing and personhood in an era of HIV/AIDS. The paper demonstrates that in a country with one of the highest HIV/AIDS infection rates in the world, risky sexual practices are weighed against cultural norms that suggest being a full person and productive adult is to be a reproductive man or woman. Through longitudinal qualitative research the narratives and life histories of several individuals offer ethnographic evidence on the power of stigma. The research finds that even with ubiquitous HIV/AIDS education and prevention programmes throughout Botswana, Tswana engage in various kinds of risk taking behaviours as means through which impressions and identities as full persons of value may be managed successfully.

  15. Risk Mitigation Measures: An Important Aspect of the Environmental Risk Assessment of Pharmaceuticals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Liebig

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Within EU marketing authorization procedures of human and veterinary medicinal products (HMP and VMP, an environmental risk assessment (ERA has to be performed. In the event that an unacceptable environmental risk is identified, risk mitigation measures (RMM shall be applied in order to reduce environmental exposure to the pharmaceutical. Within the authorization procedures of HMP, no RMM have been applied so far, except for specific precautions for the disposal of the unused medicinal product or waste materials. For VMP, a limited number of RMM do exist. The aim of this study was to develop consistent and efficient RMM. Therefore, existing RMM were compiled from a summary of product characteristics of authorized pharmaceuticals, and new RMM were developed and evaluated. Based on the results, appropriate RMM were applied within the authorization procedures of medicinal products. For HMP, except for the existing precautions for disposal, no further reasonable measures could be developed. For VMP, two specific precautions for disposal and 17 specific precautions for use in animals were proposed as RMM.

  16. An approach for environmental risk assessment of engineered nanomaterials using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topuz, Emel; van Gestel, Cornelis A M

    2016-01-01

    The usage of Engineered Nanoparticles (ENPs) in consumer products is relatively new and there is a need to conduct environmental risk assessment (ERA) to evaluate their impacts on the environment. However, alternative approaches are required for ERA of ENPs because of the huge gap in data and knowledge compared to conventional pollutants and their unique properties that make it difficult to apply existing approaches. This study aims to propose an ERA approach for ENPs by integrating Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy inference models which provide a systematic evaluation of risk factors and reducing uncertainty about the data and information, respectively. Risk is assumed to be the combination of occurrence likelihood, exposure potential and toxic effects in the environment. A hierarchy was established to evaluate the sub factors of these components. Evaluation was made with fuzzy numbers to reduce uncertainty and incorporate the expert judgements. Overall score of each component was combined with fuzzy inference rules by using expert judgements. Proposed approach reports the risk class and its membership degree such as Minor (0.7). Therefore, results are precise and helpful to determine the risk management strategies. Moreover, priority weights calculated by comparing the risk factors based on their importance for the risk enable users to understand which factor is effective on the risk. Proposed approach was applied for Ag (two nanoparticles with different coating) and TiO2 nanoparticles for different case studies. Results verified the proposed benefits of the approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. White paper on the promotion of an integrated risk assessment concept in European regulatory frameworks for chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilks, M F; Roth, N; Aicher, L; Faust, M; Papadaki, P; Marchis, A; Calliera, M; Ginebreda, A; Andres, S; Kühne, R; Schüürmann, G

    2015-07-15

    The vision of a sustainable and safe use of chemicals to protect human health, preserve the environment and maintain the ecosystem requires innovative and more holistic approaches to risk assessment (RA) in order to better inform decision making. Integrated risk assessment (IRA) has been proposed as a solution to current scientific, societal and policy needs. It is defined as the mutual exploitation of environmental risk assessment (ERA) for human health risk assessment (HHRA) and vice versa in order to coherently and more efficiently characterize an overall risk to humans and the environment for better informing the risk analysis process. Extrapolating between species which are relevant for HHRA and ERA requires a detailed understanding of pathways of toxicity/modes of action (MoA) for the various toxicological endpoints. Significant scientific advances, changes in chemical legislation, and increasing environmental consciousness have created a favourable scientific and regulatory environment to develop and promote the concept and vision of IRA. An initial proof of concept is needed to foster the incorporation of IRA approaches into different chemical sectorial regulations and demonstrate their reliability for regulatory purposes. More familiarity and confidence with IRA will ultimately contribute to an overall reduction in in vivo toxicity testing requirements. However, significant progress will only be made if long-term support for MoA-related research is secured. In the short term, further exchange and harmonization of RA terminology, models and methodologies across chemical categories and regulatory agencies will support these efforts. Since societal values, public perceptions and cultural factors are of increasing importance for the acceptance of risk analysis and successful implementation of risk mitigation measures, the integration of socio-economic analysis and socio-behavioural considerations into the risk analysis process may help to produce a more

  18. Establishing indices for groundwater contamination risk assessment in the vicinity of hazardous waste landfills in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Ying; Li Jinhui; Chen Shusheng; Diao Weihua

    2012-01-01

    Groundwater contamination by leachate is the most damaging environmental impact over the entire life of a hazardous waste landfill (HWL). With the number of HWL facilities in China rapidly increasing, and considering the poor status of environmental risk management, it is imperative that effective environmental risk management methods be implemented. A risk assessment indices system for HWL groundwater contamination is here proposed, which can simplify the risk assessment procedure and make it more user-friendly. The assessment framework and indices were drawn from five aspects: source term, underground media, leachate properties, risk receptors and landfill management quality, and a risk assessment indices system consisting of 38 cardinal indicators was established. Comparison with multimedia models revealed that the proposed indices system was integrated and quantitative, that input data for it could be easily collected, and that it could be widely used for environmental risk assessment (ERA) in China. - Highlights: ► No comprehensive environmental risk assessment method for hazardous waste management is proposed in China. ► An assessment indices system is established for groundwater contamination in the vicinity of hazardous waste landfill. ► All indicators are quantitative and applicable in China. - Capsule: This research identified critical indices and established a system for environmental risk assessment for groundwater contamination in the vicinity of HWLs in China.

  19. 9th International Symposium on the Biosafety of Genetically Modified Organisms. Session II: Identifying and defining hazards and potential consequences I: Concepts for problem formulation and non-target risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigler, Franz

    2006-01-01

    The scientific organizers of the symposium put much emphasis on the identification and definition of hazard and the potential consequences thereof and three full sessions with a total of 13 presentations encompassing a wide range of related themes were planned for this topic. Unfortunately, one talk had to be cancelled because of illness of the speaker (BM Khadi, India). Some presentations covered conceptual approaches for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of GM plants (problem formulation in the risk assessment framework, familiarity approach, tiered and methodological frameworks, non-target risk assessment) and the use of models in assessing invasiveness and weediness of GM plants. Other presentations highlighted the lessons learned for future ERA from case studies and commercialized GM crops, and from monitoring of unintended releases to the environment. When the moderators of the three sessions came together after the presentations to align their summaries, there was an obvious need to restructure the 12 presentations in a way that allowed for a consistent summarizing discussion. The following new organization of the 12 talks was chosen: (1) Concepts for problem formulation and non-target risk assessment, (2) Modeling as a tool for predicting invasiveness of GM plants, (3) Case-studies of ERA of large-scale release, (4) Lessons learned for ERA from a commercialized GM plant, (5) Monitoring of unintended release of Bt maize in Mexico. The new thematic structure facilitates a more in-depth discussion of the presentations related to a specific topic, and the conclusions to be drawn are thus more consistent. Each moderator agreed to take responsibility for summarizing one or more themes and to prepare the respective report.

  20. Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

    OpenAIRE

    Goussen, Benoit Regis Marc; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

    2016-01-01

    Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing ...

  1. Genetically engineered trees for plantation forests: key considerations for environmental risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Häggman, Hely; Raybould, Alan; Borem, Aluizio; Fox, Thomas; Handley, Levis; Hertzberg, Magnus; Lu, Meng-Zu; Macdonald, Philip; Oguchi, Taichi; Pasquali, Giancarlo; Pearson, Les; Peter, Gary; Quemada, Hector; Séguin, Armand; Tattersall, Kylie; Ulian, Eugênio; Walter, Christian; McLean, Morven

    2013-09-01

    Forests are vital to the world's ecological, social, cultural and economic well-being yet sustainable provision of goods and services from forests is increasingly challenged by pressures such as growing demand for wood and other forest products, land conversion and degradation, and climate change. Intensively managed, highly productive forestry incorporating the most advanced methods for tree breeding, including the application of genetic engineering (GE), has tremendous potential for producing more wood on less land. However, the deployment of GE trees in plantation forests is a controversial topic and concerns have been particularly expressed about potential harms to the environment. This paper, prepared by an international group of experts in silviculture, forest tree breeding, forest biotechnology and environmental risk assessment (ERA) that met in April 2012, examines how the ERA paradigm used for GE crop plants may be applied to GE trees for use in plantation forests. It emphasizes the importance of differentiating between ERA for confined field trials of GE trees, and ERA for unconfined or commercial-scale releases. In the case of the latter, particular attention is paid to characteristics of forest trees that distinguish them from shorter-lived plant species, the temporal and spatial scale of forests, and the biodiversity of the plantation forest as a receiving environment. © 2013 ILSI Research Foundation. Plant Biotechnology Journal published by Society for Experimental Biology, Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in the River Madre de Dios, Costa Rica using PERPEST, SSD, and msPAF models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ramo, R.; Brink, van den P.J.; Ruepert, C.; Castillo, L.; Gunnarsson, J.S.

    2016-01-01

    This study assesses the ecological risks (ERA) of pesticides to aquatic organisms in the River Madre de Dios (RMD), which receives surface runoff water from banana, pineapple, and rice plantations on the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica. Water samples collected over 2 years at five sites in the RMD

  3. Recent Reanalysis Activities at ECMWF: Results from ERA-20C and Plans for ERA5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dragani, R.; Hersbach, H.; Poli, P.; Pebeuy, C.; Hirahara, S.; Simmons, A.; Dee, D.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation will provide an overview of the most recent reanalysis activities performed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). A pilot reanalysis of the 20th-century (ERA-20C) has recently been completed. Funded through the European FP7 collaborative project ERA-CLIM, ERA-20C is part of a suite of experiments that also includes a model-only integration (ERA-20CM) and a land-surface reanalysis (ERA-20CL). Its data assimilation system is constrained by only surface observations obtained from ISPD (3.2.6) and ICOADS (2.5.1). Surface boundary conditions are provided by the Hadley Centre (HadISST2.1.0.0) and radiative forcing follows CMIP5 recommended data sets. First-guess uncertainty estimates are based on a 10-member ensemble of Data Assimilations, ERA-20C ensemble, run prior to ERA-20C using ten SST and sea-ice realizations from the Hadley Centre. In November 2014, the European Commission entrusted ECMWF to run on its behalf the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) aiming at producing quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate at both European and global scales. Reanalysis will be one of the main components of the C3S portfolio and the first one to be produced is a global modern era reanalysis (ERA5) covering the period from 1979 onwards. Based on a recent version of the ECMWF data assimilation system, ERA5 will replace the widely used ERA-Interim dataset. This new production will benefit from a much improved model, and better characterized and exploited observations compared to its predecessor. The first part of the presentation will focus on the ERA-20C production, provide an overview of its main characteristics and discuss some of the key results from its assessment. The second part of the talk will give an overview of ERA5, and briefly discuss some of its challenges.

  4. Draft CSA standard on environmental risk assessments at class I nuclear facilities and uranium mines and mills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hart, D.; Garisto, N.; Parker, R.; Kovacs, R.; Thompson, B.

    2012-01-01

    The Canadian Standards Association (CSA) is preparing a draft Standard on environmental risk assessments (ERAs) at Class I nuclear facilities and uranium mines and mills (CSA N288.6). It is being prepared by a technical subcommittee of the CSA N288 Technical Committee, including experts from across the nuclear industry, government and regulatory authorities, and environmental service providers, among others. It addresses the design, implementation, and management of environmental risk assessment programs, and is intended to standardize practice across the industry. This paper outlines the scope of the draft Standard and highlights key features. It is under development and subject to change. (author)

  5. Approach and strategy for performing ecological risk assessments for the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge Reservation: 1995 revision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, G.W. II; Sample, B.E.; Jones, D.S.; Ashwood, T.L.; Loar, J.M.

    1995-09-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments (ERAs) on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). It is the third such document prepared for this purpose. The first ecorisk strategy document described the ERA process and presented a tiered approach to ERAs appropriate to complex sites. The first revision was necessitated by the considerable progress that has been made by the parties to the Federal Facilities Agreement (FFA) for the ORR in resolving specific issues relating to ERA as a result of a series of data quality objectives (DQOs) meetings. The tiered approach to ERAs as recommended in the first document was implemented, generic conceptual models were developed, and a general approach for developing ecological assessment endpoints and measurement endpoints was agreed upon. This revision is necessitated by comments from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Region IV and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) which clarified and modified the positions taken during the DQO process. In particular, support for the collection of data that would support ERAs for all OUs on the ORR have been withdrawn. Therefore, the work plan developed to fill the reservation-wide data needs identified in the DQO process has also been withdrawn, and portions that are still relevant have been incorporated into this document. The reader should be aware that this guidance is complex and lengthy because it attempts to cover all the reasonable contingencies that were considered to be potentially important to the FFA parties

  6. Ophthalmic Vascular Events after Primary Unilateral Intra-arterial Chemotherapy for Retinoblastoma in Early and Recent Eras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalvin, Lauren A; Ancona-Lezama, David; Lucio-Alvarez, J Antonio; Masoomian, Babak; Jabbour, Pascal; Shields, Carol L

    2018-06-16

    To assess risk factors for ophthalmic vascular events after intra-arterial chemotherapy (IAC) for retinoblastoma. Retrospective cohort study. Patients who received unilateral IAC as primary treatment for retinoblastoma from January 1, 2009, to November 30, 2017, at a single center. Records were reviewed for patient demographics, tumor features, IAC parameters, and treatment-related vascular events in the early IAC era (2009-2011) compared with the recent era (2012-2017) using the t test and Fisher exact test. Change in event rates over time was assessed using Poisson regression analysis, with Spearman's rho used to test correlation. Rate of IAC-induced ophthalmic vascular events. There were 243 chemotherapy infusions in 76 eyes of 76 patients, divided into early (22 eyes, 57 infusions) and recent (54 eyes, 186 infusions) eras. Intra-arterial chemotherapy consisted of melphalan (243 infusions), topotecan (124 infusions), and carboplatin (9 infusions). A comparison (early vs. recent era) revealed fewer mean number of infusions (2.6 vs. 3.4, P = 0.02) with similar mean patient age and presenting tumor features. Event rates decreased over time (P early era vs. recent era) in the recent era (59% vs. 9% per eye, 23% vs. 3% per infusion, P age (P = 0.75), tumor diameter (P = 0.32), tumor thickness (P = 0.59), or cumulative dosage of melphalan (P = 0.13) or topotecan (P = 0.59). There were no IAC-induced vascular events in 72 infusions of 21 consecutively treated eyes in 2016 to 2017. Ophthalmic vascular events after IAC have decreased from the early era (2009-2011) through the current era (2012-2017) at this center. Experience performing this highly specialized procedure could be an important factor predicting IAC-related vascular events. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voelker, Doris; Schlich, Karsten; Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute; Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2015-07-01

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  8. Approach and strategy for performing ecological risk assessments for the US Department of Energy`s Oak Ridge Reservation: 1995 revision

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter, G.W. II; Sample, B.E.; Jones, D.S.; Ashwood, T.L.; Loar, J.M.

    1995-09-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments (ERAs) on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). It is the third such document prepared for this purpose. The first ecorisk strategy document described the ERA process and presented a tiered approach to ERAs appropriate to complex sites. The first revision was necessitated by the considerable progress that has been made by the parties to the Federal Facilities Agreement (FFA) for the ORR in resolving specific issues relating to ERA as a result of a series of data quality objectives (DQOs) meetings. The tiered approach to ERAs as recommended in the first document was implemented, generic conceptual models were developed, and a general approach for developing ecological assessment endpoints and measurement endpoints was agreed upon. This revision is necessitated by comments from the US Environmental Protection Agency`s Region IV and the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation (TDEC) which clarified and modified the positions taken during the DQO process. In particular, support for the collection of data that would support ERAs for all OUs on the ORR have been withdrawn. Therefore, the work plan developed to fill the reservation-wide data needs identified in the DQO process has also been withdrawn, and portions that are still relevant have been incorporated into this document. The reader should be aware that this guidance is complex and lengthy because it attempts to cover all the reasonable contingencies that were considered to be potentially important to the FFA parties.

  9. Crop to wild gene flow: Does more sophisticated research provide better risk assessment?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jong, Tom J. de; Rong, Jun

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Genes can sometimes flow from genetically modified crops to wild plants. ► The probability can be predicted from seed production of hybrids and backcrosses. ► Nevertheless predictions about introgression remain uncertain. ► One should be reluctant to ask too much detail in Environmental Risk Assessment. ► Instead possible harm should have a more central place. -- Abstract: Research into introgression, the permanent incorporation of alleles of one species into another, is flourishing and gives new insights into evolution and speciation. The possible transfer of transgenes from crop species to wild relatives is of major concern for regulators. Applicants that want to introduce a genetically modified (GM) crop on the European market need to indicate the likelihood of introgression and its anticipated effects in an Environmental Risk Analysis (ERA). The European Food Safety Association (EFSA) and competent authorities of different countries evaluate the ERA. Predicting which crop alleles will or will not be permanently incorporated into wild populations requires, apart from information on seed production of hybrids, information on how these crop alleles are associated with fitness. Advances in genetics open new avenues to address this question in more detail. We argue, however, that, even with the best techniques, predicting introgression from crop to wild species will always have a considerable margin of uncertainty. One must therefore be prudent to demand more detailed research for the ERA, especially since the possible harm of transgenes in natural populations remains so poorly defined by regulators

  10. Environmental risk assessment of triclosan and ibuprofen in marine sediments using individual and sub-individual endpoints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pusceddu, F H; Choueri, R B; Pereira, C D S; Cortez, F S; Santos, D R A; Moreno, B B; Santos, A R; Rogero, J R; Cesar, A

    2018-01-01

    The guidelines for the Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCP) recommend the use of standard ecotoxicity assays and the assessment of endpoints at the individual level to evaluate potential effects of PPCP on biota. However, effects at the sub-individual level can also affect the ecological fitness of marine organisms chronically exposed to PPCP. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the environmental risk of two PPCP in marine sediments: triclosan (TCS) and ibuprofen (IBU), using sub-individual and developmental endpoints. The environmental levels of TCS and IBU were quantified in marine sediments from the vicinities of the Santos submarine sewage outfall (Santos Bay, São Paulo, Brazil) at 15.14 and 49.0 ng g -1 , respectively. A battery (n = 3) of chronic bioassays (embryo-larval development) with a sea urchin (Lytechinus variegatus) and a bivalve (Perna perna) were performed using two exposure conditions: sediment-water interface and elutriates. Moreover, physiological stress through the Neutral Red Retention Time Assay (NRRT) was assessed in the estuarine bivalve Mytella charruana exposed to TCS and IBU spiked sediments. These compounds affected the development of L. variegatus and P. perna (75 ng g -1 for TCS and 15 ng g -1 for IBU), and caused a significant decrease in M. charruana lysosomal membrane stability at environmentally relevant concentrations (0.08 ng g -1 for TCS and 0.15 ng g -1 for IBU). Chemical and ecotoxicological data were integrated and the risk quotient estimated for TCS and IBU were higher than 1.0, indicating a high environmental risk of these compounds in sediments. These are the first data of sediment risk assessment of pharmaceuticals and personal care products of Latin America. In addition, the results suggest that the ERA based only on individual-level and standard toxicity tests may overlook other biological effects that can affect the health of marine organisms

  11. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voelker, Doris, E-mail: doris.voelker@uba.de [Federal Environment Agency Germany, Section IV 2.2, Wörlitzer Platz 1, 06844 Dessau-Rosslau (Germany); Schlich, Karsten [Fraunhofer Institute for Molecular Biology and Applied Ecology, Department of Ecotoxicology, Auf dem Aberg 1, 57392 Schmallenberg (Germany); Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute [Federal Environment Agency Germany, Section IV 2.2, Wörlitzer Platz 1, 06844 Dessau-Rosslau (Germany); Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola [Federal Environment Agency Germany, Section IV 2.4, Schichauweg 58, 12307 Berlin (Germany); Hund-Rinke, Kerstin [Fraunhofer Institute for Molecular Biology and Applied Ecology, Department of Ecotoxicology, Auf dem Aberg 1, 57392 Schmallenberg (Germany)

    2015-07-15

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  12. Approach on environmental risk assessment of nanosilver released from textiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voelker, Doris; Schlich, Karsten; Hohndorf, Lars; Koch, Wolfgang; Kuehnen, Ute; Polleichtner, Christian; Kussatz, Carola; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin

    2015-01-01

    Based on the increased utilization of nanosilver (silver nanomaterials=AgNM) as antibacterial agent, there is the strong need to assess the potential environmental implication associated with its new application areas. In this study an exemplary environmental risk assessment (ERA) of AgNM applied in textiles was performed. Environmental exposure scenarios (via municipal sewage treatment plant (STP)) with wastewater supply from domestic homes) were developed for three different types of textiles equipped with AgNM. Based on these scenarios predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) were deduced for STPs and for the environmental compartments surface water, sediment as well as soil. These PECs were related to PNECs (predicted no effect concentrations). PNECs were deduced from results of ecotoxicity tests of a selected AgNM (NM-300K). Data on ecotoxicology were derived from various tests with activated sludge, cyanobacteria, algae, daphnids, fish, duckweed, macrophytes, chironomids, earthworms, terrestrial plants as well as soil microorganisms. Emission data for the AgNM NM-300K from textiles were derived from washing experiments. The performed ERA was based on the specifications defined in the ECHA Guidances on information requirements and chemical safety assessment. Based on the chosen scenarios and preconditions, no environmental risk of the AgNM NM-300K released from textiles was detected. Under conservative assumptions a risk quotient for surface water close to 1 indicated that the aquatic compartment may be affected by an increased emission of AgNM to the environment due to the high sensitivity of aquatic organisms to silver. Based on the successful retention of AgNM in the sewage sludge and the still ongoing continual application of sewage sludge on farmland it is recommended to introduce a threshold for total silver content in sewage sludge into the respective regulations. Regarding potential risk mitigation measures, it is emphasized to preferably directly

  13. Bioavailability in ecological risk. Assessment for radionuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnier-Laplace, J.; Gilbin, R.; Della-Vedova, C.; Adam, C.; Simon, O.; Denison, F.; Beaugelin, K.

    2005-01-01

    The guidance for performing Ecological Risk Assessments (ERA) in Europe has been published in 2003 in the EC's Technical Guidance Document. This document constitutes the official reference in which current water quality standards and risk assessment approach for metals/metalloids are still mainly based on total or dissolved concentrations. However, it has been recognized that accurate assessment of the bio-available metal fraction is crucial, even if the way to incorporate bioavailability into these procedures is still under discussion. The speciation of a pollutant in the exposure medium is the first factor that regulates its bioavailability and consequently its bioaccumulation and the induced biological effects. Therefore, within any ecological risk assessment, bioavailability has obvious implications: firstly in exposure analysis which aim is to determine Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC); secondly in effect analysis while deriving the so-called Predicted No-Effect Concentrations (PNEC) as toxicity is often linked to the amount of the contaminant incorporated into the tissues of biota. Similarities between metals/metalloids and radionuclides are limited to the biogeochemical behaviour of the element considered and to the need to use bioavailability models. In addition, for radionuclides, emitted ionising radiations (type and energy) need to be taken into account for both exposure and effect analyses whilst performing dosimetric calculations appropriate to the exposure scenarios. A methodology for properly implementing bioavailability models is explained and illustrated for aqueous U(VI), starting from a comprehensive review of the thermodynamic data relevant to environmentally-realistic physico-chemical conditions. Then, the use of thermodynamic equilibrium modelling as a tool for interpreting the bioavailability of U(VI) is presented. Using a systematic approach, different bioavailability models of increasing complexity were tested to model U bio

  14. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  15. Rework of the ERA software system: ERA-8

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlov, D.; Skripnichenko, V.

    2015-08-01

    The software system that has been powering many products of the IAA during decades has undergone a major rework. ERA has capabilities for: processing tables of observations of different kinds, fitting parameters to observations, integrating equations of motion of the Solar system bodies. ERA comprises a domain-specific language called SLON, tailored for astronomical tasks. SLON provides a convenient syntax for reductions of observations, choosing of IAU standards to use, applying rules for filtering observations or selecting parameters for fitting. Also, ERA includes a table editor and a graph plotter. ERA-8 has a number of improvements over previous versions such as: integration of the Solar system and TT xA1 TDB with arbitrary number of asteroids; option to use different ephemeris (including DE and INPOP); integrator with 80-bit floating point. The code of ERA-8 has been completely rewritten from Pascal to C (for numerical computations) and Racket (for running SLON programs and managing data). ERA-8 is portable across major operating systems. The format of tables in ERA-8 is based on SQLite. The SPICE format has been chosen as the main format for ephemeris in ERA-8.

  16. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  17. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  18. Lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy in Europe: a population-based study using data from the ERA-EDTA Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Brand, Jan A J G; Pippias, Maria; Stel, Vianda S; Caskey, Fergus J; Collart, Frederic; Finne, Partik; Heaf, James; Jais, Jean-Philippe; Kramar, Reinhard; Massy, Ziad A; De Meester, Johan; Traynor, Jamie P; Reisæter, Anna Varberg; Wetzels, Jack F M; Jager, Kitty J

    2017-02-01

    Upcoming KDIGO guidelines for the evaluation of living kidney donors are expected to move towards a personal risk-based evaluation of potential donors. We present the age and sex-specific lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease in 10 European countries. We defined lifetime risk of RRT as the cumulative incidence of RRT up to age 90 years. We obtained RRT incidence rates per million population by 5-year age groups and sex using data from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry, and used these to estimate the cumulative incidence of RRT, adjusting for competing mortality risk. Lifetime risk of RRT varied from 0.44% to 2.05% at age 20 years and from 0.17% to 1.59% at age 70 years across countries, and was twice as high in men as in women. Lifetime RRT risk decreased with age, ranging from an average of 0.77% to 0.44% in 20- to- 70-year-old women, and from 1.45% to 0.96% in 20- to- 70-year-old men. The lifetime risk of RRT increased slightly over the past decade, more so in men than in women. However, it appears to have stabilized or even decreased slightly in more recent years. The lifetime risk of RRT decreased with age, was lower in women as compared with men of equal age and varied considerably throughout Europe. Given the substantial differences in lifetime risk of RRT between the USA and Europe, country-specific estimates should be used in the evaluation and communication of the risk of RRT for potential living kidney donors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  19. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  20. Aquatic environmental risk assessment of manganese processing industries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marks, Becky; Peters, Adam; McGough, Doreen

    2017-01-01

    An environmental risk assessment (ERA) has been conducted for sites producing and processing manganese and its inorganic compounds, focussing on potential risks to freshwater. A site specific questionnaire was used to collect information. Sites fall into three broad categories: mining sites, refining sites, and sites producing chemicals and pigments. Waste disposal is principally carried out by the treatment of liquid wastes to separate solids for disposal off-site with a consented wastewater discharge, or disposal on-site using evaporation or settlement ponds in order to maintain the waste materials in a suitable manner following site closure. The main source of emissions from refining and alloying sites is from the treatment of emissions to air using wet scrubber air filters. There is also the potential for fugitive environmental emissions of manganese from stockpiles of raw material held on-site. Data provided from the questionnaires were both site-specific and also commercially sensitive. Therefore, this paper has undertaken the manganese exposure assessment, using a probabilistic approach to reflect the distribution of emissions of manganese and also to maintain the confidentiality of site specific data. An inverse correlation was observed between the total annual tonnage of manganese processed at the site and the emission factor, such that sites processing larger quantities resulted in lower emissions of manganese per tonne processed. The hazard assessment determined a Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC) for freshwater using a species sensitivity distribution approach, resulting in a freshwater PNEC of 0.075mgL -1 for soluble manganese. Based on the exposure data and the freshwater PNEC derived for this study, the distributions of risk characterisation ratios using the probabilistic approach indicates that two thirds of manganese processing sites would not be expected to pose a potential risk to the local aquatic environment due to wastewater emissions

  1. Risk and Outbreak Communication: Lessons from Taiwan's Experiences in the Post-SARS Era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Yu-Chen; Chen, Yu-Ling; Wei, Han-Ning; Yang, Yu-Wen; Chen, Ying-Hwei

    In addition to the impact of a disease itself, public reaction could be considered another outbreak to be controlled during an epidemic. Taiwan's experience with SARS in 2003 highlighted the critical role played by the media during crisis communication. After the SARS outbreak, Taiwan's Centers for Disease Control (Taiwan CDC) followed the WHO outbreak communication guidelines on trust, early announcements, transparency, informing the public, and planning, in order to reform its risk communication systems. This article describes the risk communication framework in Taiwan, which has been used to respond to the 2009-2016 influenza epidemics, Ebola in West Africa (2014-16), and MERS-CoV in South Korea (2015) during the post-SARS era. Many communication strategies, ranging from traditional media to social and new media, have been implemented to improve transparency in public communication and promote civic engagement. Taiwan CDC will continue to maintain the strengths of its risk communication systems and resolve challenges as they emerge through active evaluation and monitoring of public opinion to advance Taiwan's capacity in outbreak communication and control. Moreover, Taiwan CDC will continue to implement the IHR (2005) and to promote a global community working together to fight shared risks and to reach the goal of "One World, One Health."

  2. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  3. A New Era for Research Education in Australia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Helene; Smith, Bradley; King, Max; Evans, Terry

    2012-01-01

    Use of the Australian research assessment exercise, Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA) to influence the policy and practice of research education in Australia will undoubtedly have many consequences, some of them unintended and potentially deleterious. ERA is a retrospective measure of research quality; research education is prospective.…

  4. Ecological risk assessment of agricultural soils for the definition of soil screening values: A comparison between substance-based and matrix-based approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pivato, Alberto; Lavagnolo, Maria Cristina; Manachini, Barbara; Vanin, Stefano; Raga, Roberto; Beggio, Giovanni

    2017-04-01

    The Italian legislation on contaminated soils does not include the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) and this deficiency has important consequences for the sustainable management of agricultural soils. The present research compares the results of two ERA procedures applied to agriculture (i) one based on the "substance-based" approach and (ii) a second based on the "matrix-based" approach. In the former the soil screening values (SVs) for individual substances were derived according to institutional foreign guidelines. In the latter, the SVs characterizing the whole-matrix were derived originally by the authors by means of experimental activity. The results indicate that the "matrix-based" approach can be efficiently implemented in the Italian legislation for the ERA of agricultural soils. This method, if compared to the institutionalized "substance based" approach is (i) comparable in economic terms and in testing time, (ii) is site specific and assesses the real effect of the investigated soil on a battery of bioassays, (iii) accounts for phenomena that may radically modify the exposure of the organisms to the totality of contaminants and (iv) can be considered sufficiently conservative.

  5. Effective Governance in the Era of Disruptive Changes in Business Illustrated by the Tata Capital Framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Caspar; Sherman, David; Haraszuk, Anni

    2015-01-01

    Identifying, assessing, managing, and containing risks is a fundamental responsibility of business and ‘business as usual’ in 2015. The question is: How can businesses be effectively governed in an era of disruptive changes while managing risks of business? This article explores – through the case...... example of Tata Capital, part of the Indian, global conglomerate Tata Group – how to effectively govern in an environment of disruptive forces impacting business while managing risk seen from an audit committee and internal audit perspective. Effective governance through regular evaluation of internal...

  6. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  7. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  8. Selection of patients for heart transplantation in the current era of heart failure therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Javed; Khadim, Ghazanfar; Paul, Kimberly M; Davis, Stacy F; Kronenberg, Marvin W; Chomsky, Don B; Pierson, Richard N; Wilson, John R

    2004-03-03

    We sought to assess the relationship between survival, peak exercise oxygen consumption (VO(2)), and heart failure survival score (HFSS) in the current era of heart failure (HF) therapy. Based on predicted survival, HF patients with peak VO(2) 14 ml/min/kg (p = 0.04). Of the patients with peak VO(2) of 10 to 14 ml/min/kg, 55% had low-risk HFSS and exhibited 88% one-year event-free survival. One-year survival after transplantation was 88%, which is similar to the 85% rate reported by the United Network for Organ Sharing for 1999 to 2000. Survival for HF patients in the current era has improved significantly, necessitating re-evaluation of the listing criteria for heart transplantation.

  9. ERA`s Ranger uranium mine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, W. [Energy Resources of Australia Ltd., Sydney, NSW (Australia)

    1997-12-31

    Energy Resource of Australia (ERA) is a public company with 68% of its shares owned by the Australian company North Limited. It is currently operating one major production centre - Ranger Mine which is 260 kilometres east of Darwin, extracting and selling uranium from the Ranger Mine in the Northern Territory to nuclear electricity utilities in Japan, South Korea, Europe and North America. The first drum of uranium oxide from Ranger was drummed in August 1981 and operations have continued since that time. ERA is also in the process of working towards obtaining approvals for the development of a second mine - Jabiluka which is located 20 kilometres north of Ranger. The leases of Ranger and Jabiluka adjoin. The Minister for the Environment has advised the Minister for Resources and Energy that there does not appear to be any environmental issue which would prevent the preferred Jabiluka proposal from proceeding. Consent for the development of ERA`s preferred option for the development of Jabiluka is being sought from the Aboriginal Traditional Owners. Ranger is currently the third largest producing uranium mine in the world producing 4,237 tonnes of U{sub 3}O{sub 8} in the year to June 1997.

  10. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  11. ECO Update / Groundwater Foum Issue Paper: Evaluating Ground-Water/Surface-Water Transition Zones in Ecological Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    This ECO Update builds on the standard approach to ERA (U.S. EPA 1997), by providing a framework for incorporating groundwater/surface-water (GW/SW) interactions into existing ERAs (see U.S. EPA 1997 and 2001a for an introduction to ecological risk....

  12. Cognitive maps for risk assessment in providing cloud computing data security

    OpenAIRE

    Konrad, U.; Penzina, V.

    2013-01-01

    Cloud Computing (CC) became a new milestone in era of information technology. Almost unlimited possibilities for the storing information, data processing and virtual machine creation discovered unique perspectives. However, new technologies bring new threats, risks and serious consequences.

  13. Lifetime extension of ageing nuclear power plants. Entering a new era of risk. Report comissionned by Greenpeace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-03-01

    The abbreviated version of the Greenpeace report on the lifetime extension of aging nuclear power plants - entering a new era of risk - covers the following topics: age of the nuclear power plants in Europe, covered amounts of insurance in Europe in case of a nuclear accident, progress of the ageing of nuclear power plants, and the power up-rating of nuclear reactors. The economy of aged reactors is discussed in connection with the lifetime extension and the liabilities for the aging reactors.

  14. Fish bioaccumulation and biomarkers in environmental risk assessment: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Oost, Ron; Beyer, Jonny; Vermeulen, Nico P E

    2003-02-01

    In this review, a wide array of bioaccumulation markers and biomarkers, used to demonstrate exposure to and effects of environmental contaminants, has been discussed in relation to their feasibility in environmental risk assessment (ERA). Fish bioaccumulation markers may be applied in order to elucidate the aquatic behavior of environmental contaminants, as bioconcentrators to identify certain substances with low water levels and to assess exposure of aquatic organisms. Since it is virtually impossible to predict the fate of xenobiotic substances with simple partitioning models, the complexity of bioaccumulation should be considered, including toxicokinetics, metabolism, biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs), organ-specific bioaccumulation and bound residues. Since it remains hard to accurately predict bioaccumulation in fish, even with highly sophisticated models, analyses of tissue levels are required. The most promising fish bioaccumulation markers are body burdens of persistent organic pollutants, like PCBs and DDTs. Since PCDD and PCDF levels in fish tissues are very low as compared with the sediment levels, their value as bioaccumulation markers remains questionable. Easily biodegradable compounds, such as PAHs and chlorinated phenols, do not tend to accumulate in fish tissues in quantities that reflect the exposure. Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) have been successfully used to mimic bioaccumulation of hydrophobic organic substances in aquatic organisms. In order to assess exposure to or effects of environmental pollutants on aquatic ecosystems, the following suite of fish biomarkers may be examined: biotransformation enzymes (phase I and II), oxidative stress parameters, biotransformation products, stress proteins, metallothioneins (MTs), MXR proteins, hematological parameters, immunological parameters, reproductive and endocrine parameters, genotoxic parameters, neuromuscular parameters, physiological, histological and morphological parameters

  15. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  16. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  17. Development of a framework based on an ecosystem services approach for deriving specific protection goals for environmental risk assessment of pesticides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nienstedt, Karin M.; Brock, Theo C.M.; Wensem, Joke van; Montforts, Mark; Hart, Andy; Aagaard, Alf; Alix, Anne; Boesten, Jos; Bopp, Stephanie K.; Brown, Colin; Capri, Ettore; Forbes, Valery; Köpp, Herbert; Liess, Matthias; Luttik, Robert; Maltby, Lorraine

    2012-01-01

    General protection goals for the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of plant protection products are stated in European legislation but specific protection goals (SPGs) are often not precisely defined. These are however crucial for designing appropriate risk assessment schemes. The process followed by the Panel on Plant Protection Products and their Residues (PPR) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) as well as examples of resulting SPGs obtained so far for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of pesticides is presented. The ecosystem services approach was used as an overarching concept for the development of SPGs, which will likely facilitate communication with stakeholders in general and risk managers in particular. It is proposed to develop SPG options for 7 key drivers for ecosystem services (microbes, algae, non target plants (aquatic and terrestrial), aquatic invertebrates, terrestrial non target arthropods including honeybees, terrestrial non-arthropod invertebrates, and vertebrates), covering the ecosystem services that could potentially be affected by the use of pesticides. These SPGs need to be defined in 6 dimensions: biological entity, attribute, magnitude, temporal and geographical scale of the effect, and the degree of certainty that the specified level of effect will not be exceeded. In general, to ensure ecosystem services, taxa representative for the key drivers identified need to be protected at the population level. However, for some vertebrates and species that have a protection status in legislation, protection may be at the individual level. To protect the provisioning and supporting services provided by microbes it may be sufficient to protect them at the functional group level. To protect biodiversity impacts need to be assessed at least at the scale of the watershed/landscape. - Research highlights: ► How to define specific protection goals (SPGs) for environmental risk assessment? ► The process uses the ecosystem services (ES

  18. Ecological risk assessment of agricultural soils for the definition of soil screening values: A comparison between substance-based and matrix-based approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Pivato

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The Italian legislation on contaminated soils does not include the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA and this deficiency has important consequences for the sustainable management of agricultural soils. The present research compares the results of two ERA procedures applied to agriculture (i one based on the “substance-based” approach and (ii a second based on the “matrix-based” approach. In the former the soil screening values (SVs for individual substances were derived according to institutional foreign guidelines. In the latter, the SVs characterizing the whole-matrix were derived originally by the authors by means of experimental activity.The results indicate that the “matrix-based” approach can be efficiently implemented in the Italian legislation for the ERA of agricultural soils. This method, if compared to the institutionalized “substance based” approach is (i comparable in economic terms and in testing time, (ii is site specific and assesses the real effect of the investigated soil on a battery of bioassays, (iii accounts for phenomena that may radically modify the exposure of the organisms to the totality of contaminants and (iv can be considered sufficiently conservative. Keyword: Environmental science

  19. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  20. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  1. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  2. Biosafety risk assessment approaches for insect-resistant genetically modified crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inaam Ullah

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Environmental risk assessment (ERA is imperative for commercial release of insect resistant, genetically modified crops (IR-GMCs.An insect specific, spider venom peptideω-HXTX-Hv1a (Hvt was successfully expressed in cotton plants. The cotton plants producing Hvt protein have demonstrated resistance against economically important insect pest species. The study was performed to assess the effects of Hvt producing cotton plants on Honey bees (Apis mellifera. Methods: Three approaches were used to evaluate the effects of Hvt protein on adults of honeybees; whole plant assays in flight cages, in vitro assays with pollen of Hvt-cotton, and assays with elevated levels of purified Hvt protein. Pollens of Bt cotton or purified Bt proteins were used as control. Results: The field experiments did not yield any meaningful data due to high rate of mortality in all treatments including the control. However, the laboratory experiments provided conclusive results in which Hvt, purified or in pollens, did not affect the survival or longevity of the bees compared to the control. During the course of study we were able to compare the quality, effectiveness and economics of different experiments. Conclusions: We conclude that Hvt either purified or produced in cotton plants do not affect the survival or longevity of honey bees. We are also of the view that starting at laboratory level assays not only gives meaningful data but also saves a lot of time and money that can be spent on other important questions regarding safety of a particular transgenic crop. Hence, a purpose-based, tiered approach could be the best choice for pre-release ERA of IR-GMCs.

  3. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  4. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  5. Environmental risk assessment of chemicals and nanomaterials — The best foundation for regulatory decision-making?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Syberg, Kristian; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2016-01-01

    and, subsequently, to quantify risk. In this paper we argue that since the quantification of risk is dominated by uncertainties, ERAs do not provide a transparent or an objective foundation for decision-making and they should therefore not be considered as a “holy grail” for informing risk management...

  6. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  7. 75 FR 13319 - NextEra Energy Seabrook, LLC, et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-19

    ... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [Docket No. 50-443; NRC-2010-0108] NextEra Energy Seabrook, LLC, et al.,* Seabrook Station, Unit No. 1 Environmental Assessment and Finding of No Significant Impact * NextEra Energy Seabrook, LLC is authorized to act as agent for the Hudson Light & Power Department...

  8. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  9. Improving ecological risk assessment by including bioavailability into species sensitivity distributions: An example for plants exposed to nickel in soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Semenzin, Elena; Temminghoff, Erwin J.M.; Marcomini, Antonio

    2007-01-01

    The variability of species sensitivity distribution (SSD) due to contaminant bioavailability in soil was explored by using nickel as metal of concern. SSDs of toxicity test results of Avena sativa L. originating from different soils and expressed as total content and available (0.01 M CaCl 2 ) extractable concentration were compared to SSDs for terrestrial plants derived from literature toxicity data. Also the 'free' nickel (Ni 2+ ) concentration was calculated and compared. The results demonstrated that SSDs based on total nickel content highly depend on the experimental conditions set up for toxicity testing (i.e. selected soil and pH value) and thus on metal bioavailability in soil, resulting in an unacceptable uncertainty for ecological risk estimation. The use in SSDs of plant toxicity data expressed as 0.01 M CaCl 2 extractable metal strongly reduced the uncertainty in the SSD curve and thus can improve the ERA procedure remarkably by taking bioavailability into account. - The use of bioavailability toxicity data can improve species sensitivity distribution (SSD) curves and thus ecological risk assessment (ERA)

  10. Survival of Er(a+) red cells in a patient with allo-anti-Era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, H.W.; Skradski, K.J.; Thoreson, J.R.; Polesky, H.F.

    1985-01-01

    51 Chromium-labeled Er(a+) red cells survived nearly normally (T1/2 of 21 days) in a patient with allo-anti-Era. Transfusion of Er(a+) blood was without significant reaction and did not affect the anti-Era titer

  11. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  12. Application of Deterministic and Probabilistic System Design Methods and Enhancements of Conceptual Design Tools for ERA Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mavris, Dimitri N.; Schutte, Jeff S.

    2016-01-01

    This report documents work done by the Aerospace Systems Design Lab (ASDL) at the Georgia Institute of Technology, Daniel Guggenheim School of Aerospace Engineering for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Integrated System Research Program, Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) Project. This report was prepared under contract NNL12AA12C, "Application of Deterministic and Probabilistic System Design Methods and Enhancement of Conceptual Design Tools for ERA Project". The research within this report addressed the Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project goal stated in the NRA solicitation "to advance vehicle concepts and technologies that can simultaneously reduce fuel burn, noise, and emissions." To identify technology and vehicle solutions that simultaneously meet these three metrics requires the use of system-level analysis with the appropriate level of fidelity to quantify feasibility, benefits and degradations, and associated risk. In order to perform the system level analysis, the Environmental Design Space (EDS) [Kirby 2008, Schutte 2012a] environment developed by ASDL was used to model both conventional and unconventional configurations as well as to assess technologies from the ERA and N+2 timeframe portfolios. A well-established system design approach was used to perform aircraft conceptual design studies, including technology trade studies to identify technology portfolios capable of accomplishing the ERA project goal and to obtain accurate tradeoffs between performance, noise, and emissions. The ERA goal, shown in Figure 1, is to simultaneously achieve the N+2 benefits of a cumulative noise margin of 42 EPNdB relative to stage 4, a 75 percent reduction in LTO NOx emissions relative to CAEP 6 and a 50 percent reduction in fuel burn relative to the 2005 best in class aircraft. There were 5 research task associated with this research: 1) identify technology collectors, 2) model

  13. Development of a GIS approach to mining risk assessment. Supervising Scientist report 159

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boggs, G.S.

    2001-01-01

    A Geographic Information System (GIS) offers a means by which the data collected during the assessment of possible mining impacts can be stored and manipulated. A GIS that provides a central focus point for the storage, manipulation and retrieval of information generated by the investigation into the geomorphological impact of the ERA Jabiluka Mine has been developed. Implementing a flexible, GIS-centred approach to data management allows the data storage, manipulation and retrieval powers of GIS to be retained whilst maintaining access to the functionality contained within these other software packages. The GIS has also been linked to the DistFW hydrology model and SIBERIA landform evolution model, to provide a more spatial approach to assessing the impact of mining on the long-term landform evolution of a catchment. A GIS based rapid erosion assessment method has been developed and evaluated. The method allows the user to quickly acquire and evaluate existing data to assist in the planning of more detailed monitoring, modelling and erosion assessment programs. The rapid erosion assessment method is based on a simplified version of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), and allows the rapid parametrisation of the model from widely available land unit and elevation datasets. The rapid erosion assessment method is evaluated through the investigation of the effects of elevation data resolution on erosion predictions and field data validation. More detailed, quantitative risk assessment can be conducted using a combination of landform evolution modelling and basin analysis in a GIS framework. SIBERIA has been parameterized using field data from Ngarradj and applied to the catchment. Due to complexities of the catchment there were some difficulties with the hydrology component. However, the results indicate that SIBERIA is suitable and simulations showed little change in the catchment in the long term. Combining these with newly developed GIS tools to

  14. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  15. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  16. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  17. Principles and issues in radiological ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Daniel; Domotor, Stephen; Higley Kathryn; Kocher, David; Bilyard, Gordon

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides a bridge between the fields of ecological risk coefficients.variability o published particle-solution distribution coeffiissues identified in the US Department of Energy's Graded Approach fo Evaluating Radiation Doses to Aquatic and Terrestrial Biota in a manner consistent with the US Environmental Protection Agency's framework for ERA. Current radiological ERA methods and data are intended for use in protecting natural populations of biota, rather than individual members of a population. Potentially susceptible receptors include vertebrates and terrestrial plants One must ensure that all media, radionuclides (including short-lived radioactive decay products), types of radiations (i.e., alpha particles electrons, and photons), and pathways (i.e., internal and external contamination) are combined in each exposure scenario. The relative biological effectiveness of alpha particles with respect to deterministic effects must also be considered. Expected safe levels of exposure are available for the protection of natural populations of aquatic biota (10 mGy d -1 ) and terrestrial plants (10 mGy d -1 ) and animals (1 mGy d -1 ) and are appropriate for use in all radiological ERA tiers, provided that appropriate exposure assumptions are used. Caution must be exercised (and a thorough justification provided) if more restrictive limits are selected, to ensure that the supporting data are of high quality, reproducible, and clearly relevant to the protection of natural populations

  18. Living Planet Report 2016 - Risk and resilience in a new era. Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaufort, Imre; Caritat, Anne-Kirstine de; Sourd, Christine; Gauffier, Arnaud; Valingot, Mathilde; Chaumien, Marielle; Herbert, Pascal; Francois, Laura; Eckert, Carine; Oerlemans, Natasja; Strand, Holly; Winkelhagen, Anne-marie; Barrett, Mike; Young, Lucy; Guerraoui, May; Zwaal, Natascha; Klinge, Danielle; Nel, Deon; Taylor, Rod; Grooten, Monique; Stevens, Arjette; Geenen, Bart; Kohl, Andrea; Baumueller, Andreas; Davies, Glyn; Tickner, David; Ellis, Karen; Heaps, Louise; Charman, Sue; Ashley-Cantello, Will; Li, Lin; Higgins, Mary Lou; Sejal, Worah; McRae, Louise; Freeman, Robin; Marconi, Valentina; Kopecky, Danielle; Marshall, Suzannah; Milligan, Harriet; Muller, Helen; Turay, Mariam; Cornell, Sarah; Rockstroem, Johan; Villarrubia-Gomez, Patricia; Gaffney, Owen; Galli, Alessandro; Lin, David; Eaton, Derek; Halle, Martin; Martindill, Jon; Hanscom, Laurel; West, Chris; Croft, Simon; Gladek, Eva; Fraser, Matthew; Kennedy, Erin; Roemers, Gerard; Sabag Munoz, Oscar; Van Soesbergen, Arnout; Shepherd, Ellen; Burgess, Neil; Shennan-Farpon, Yara; Borgstroem-Hansson, Carina; Randriamanantena, Dannick; Liu, John D.; Tittonell, Pablo

    2016-01-01

    Global biodiversity is declining at an alarming rate, putting the survival of other species and our own future at risk. The latest edition of WWF's Living Planet Report brings home the enormity of the situation - and how we can start to put it right. The Living Planet Index reveals that global populations of fish, birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles declined by 58 per cent between 1970 and 2012. We could witness a two-thirds decline in the half-century from 1970 to 2020 - unless we act now to reform our food and energy systems and meet global commitments on addressing climate change, protecting biodiversity and supporting sustainable development Contents: Foreword and executive summary: A resilient Earth for future generations, Living on the edge, Risk and resilience in a new era, Executive summary; Chapter 1: State of the natural planet: Monitoring global biodiversity, The Living Planet Index in perspective, Ecosystem services: linking nature and people; Chapter 2: Human impacts on the planet: An Earth system perspective, Measuring human pressures; Chapter 3: Exploring root causes: Toward systems thinking, Systems thinking applied to the food system; Chapter 4: A resilient planet for nature and people: The dual challenge of sustainable development, Transitioning the global economic system, Transformation of energy and food systems, The path ahead; Glossary and abbreviations, references

  19. Fukushima's lessons from the blue butterfly: A risk assessment of the human living environment in the post-Fukushima era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otaki, Joji M

    2016-10-01

    Fukushima era. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:667-672. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  20. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  2. The relative sensitivity of freshwater species to antimony(III): Implications for water quality guidelines and ecological risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obiakor, Maximilian Obinna; Tighe, Matthew; Wang, Zhen; Ezeonyejiaku, Chigozie Damian; Pereg, Lily; Wilson, Susan C

    2017-11-01

    Antimony (Sb) is a pollutant in many jurisdictions, yet its threat to aquatic biota is unclear. Water quality guidelines (WQGs) for Sb are not well established and large uncertainty factors are commonly applied in derivation. We constructed freshwater species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for Sb(III) using available acute toxicity data sourced from temperate and tropical regional studies. A tiered ecological risk assessment (ERA) approach using risk quotients (RQs) was applied for characterisation of risks presented by Sb(III) concentrations measured in the freshwater environment. Multiple parametric models were fitted for each SSD, with the optimal model used to derive the 5% hazardous concentration (HC5), defined as protective of 95% of species, and the corresponding predicted no effect concentration (PNEC). The HC5 values for whole and temperate SSDs were estimated at 781 and 976 μg L -1 Sb(III), respectively, while the PNECs for both datasets were 156 and 195 μg L -1 Sb(III), respectively. Due to limited tropical data, a temperate-to-tropic extrapolation factor of 10 was used to estimate an interim PNEC for tropical regions of 20 μg L -1 Sb(III). Based on published freshwater Sb(III) concentration values across a range of locations, potential ecological risks posed by Sb(III) in some freshwater systems studied would be classified as medium to high risk, but the majority of locations sampled would fall into the low ecological risk category. Our results facilitate the understanding of toxic effects of Sb(III) to freshwater species but also demonstrate that data for Sb ERA are extremely limited.

  3. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  4. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  5. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  6. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  7. A Probabilistic Assessment of the Chemical and Radiological Risks of Chronic Exposure to Uranium in Freshwater Ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathews, T.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.; Garnier-Laplace, J.; Gilbin, R.; Adam, Ch.; Della-Vedova, C.

    2009-01-01

    Uranium (U) presents a unique challenge for ecological risk assessments (ERA) because it induces both chemical and radiological toxicity, and the relative importance of these two toxicities differs among the various U source terms (i.e., natural, enriched, depleted). We present a method for the conversion between chemical concentrations (μgL -1 ) and radiological dose rates (μGyh -1 ) for a defined set of reference organisms, and apply this conversion method to previously derived chemical and radiological benchmarks to determine the extent to which these benchmarks ensure radiological and chemical protection, respectively, for U in freshwater ecosystems. Results show that the percentage of species radiologically protected by the chemical benchmark decreases with increasing degrees of U enrichment and with increasing periods of radioactive decay. In contrast, the freshwater ecosystem is almost never chemically protected by the radiological benchmark, regardless of the source term or decay period considered, confirming that the risks to the environment from uranium's chemical toxicity generally outweigh those of its radiological toxicity. These results are relevant to developing water quality criteria that protect freshwater ecosystems from the various risks associated with the nuclear applications of U exploitation, and highlight the need for (1) further research on the speciation, bioavailability, and toxicity of U-series radionuclides under different environmental conditions, and (2) the adoption of both chemical and radiological benchmarks for coherent ERAS to be conducted in U-contaminated freshwater ecosystems. (authors)

  8. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  9. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  11. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  12. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  13. The comet assay in Environmental Risk Assessment of marine pollutants: applications, assets and handicaps of surveying genotoxicity in non-model organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Marta; Costa, Pedro M

    2015-01-01

    Determining the genotoxic effects of pollutants has long been a priority in Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) for coastal ecosystems, especially of complex areas such as estuaries and other confined waterbodies. The acknowledged link between DNA damage, mutagenicity and carcinogenicity to the exposure to certain toxicants has been responsible to the growing interest in determining the genotoxic effects of xenobiotics to wildlife as a measure of environmental risk. The comet assay, although widely employed in in vivo and in vitro toxicology, still holds many constraints in ERA, in large part owing to difficulties in obtaining conclusive cause-effect relationships from complex environments. Nevertheless, these challenges do not hinder the attempts to apply the alkaline comet assay on sentinel organisms, wild or subjected to bioassays in or ex situ (from fish to molluscs) as well to standardise protocols and establish general guidelines to the interpretation of findings. Fish have been regarded as an appealing subject due to the ease of performing the comet assay in whole blood. However, the application of the comet assay is becoming increasingly common in invertebrates (e.g. in molluscan haemocytes and solid tissues such as gills). Virtually all sorts of results have been obtained from the application of the comet assay in ERA (null, positive and inconclusive). However, it has become clear that interpreting DNA damage data from wild organisms is particularly challenging due to their ability to adapt to continuous environmental stressors, including toxicants. Also, the comet assay in non-model organisms for the purpose of ERA implies different constraints, assumptions and interpretation of findings, compared with the in vitro procedures from which most guidelines have been derived. This paper critically reviews the application of the comet assay in ERA, focusing on target organisms and tissues; protocol developments, case studies plus data handling and

  14. Assessment of potential risks of dietary RNAi to a soil micro-arthropod, Sinella curviseta Brook (Collembola: Entomobryidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huipeng Pan

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available RNAi-based genetically engineered (GE crops for the management of insect pests are likely to be commercialized by the end of this decade. Without a workable framework for conducting the ecological risk assessment (ERA and a standardized ERA protocol, however, the utility of RNAi transgenic crops in pest management remains uncertain. The overall goal of this study is to assess the risks of RNAi-based GE crops on a non-target soil micro-arthropod, Sinella curviseta, which could be exposed to plant-protected dsRNAs deposited in crop residues. Based on the preliminary research, we hypothesized that insecticidal dsRNAs targeting at the western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera, a billion-dollar insect pest, has no adverse impacts on S. curviseta, a soil decomposer. Following a tiered approach, we tested this risk hypothesis using a well-designed dietary RNAi toxicity assay. To create the worst-case scenario, the full-length cDNA of v-ATPase subunit A from S. curviseta were cloned and a 400 bp fragment representing the highest sequence similarity between target pest and non-target arthropods was selected as the template to synthesize insecticidal dsRNAs. Specifically, 10-day old S. curviseta larvae were subjected to artificial diets containing v-ATPase A dsRNAs from both D. v. virgifera (dsDVV and S. curviseta (dsSC, respectively, a dsRNA control, β-glucuronidase, from plant (dsGUS, and a vehicle control, H2O. The endpoint measurements included gene expression profiles, survival, and life history traits, such as developmental time, fecundity, hatching rate, and body length. Although S. curviseta larvae developed significantly faster under the treatments of dsDVV and dsSC than the vehicle control, the combined results from both temporal RNAi effect study and dietary RNAi toxicity assay support the risk hypothesis, suggesting that the impacts of ingested arthropod-active dsRNAs on this representative soil decomposer are negligible.

  15. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  16. Landscape structure and management alter the outcome of a pesticide ERA: Evaluating impacts of endocrine disruption using the ALMaSS European Brown Hare model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topping, Chris J; Dalby, Lars; Skov, Flemming

    2016-01-15

    There is a gradual change towards explicitly considering landscapes in regulatory risk assessment. To realise the objective of developing representative scenarios for risk assessment it is necessary to know how detailed a landscape representation is needed to generate a realistic risk assessment, and indeed how to generate such landscapes. This paper evaluates the contribution of landscape and farming components to a model based risk assessment of a fictitious endocrine disruptor on hares. In addition, we present methods and code examples for generation of landscape structures and farming simulation from data collected primarily for EU agricultural subsidy support and GIS map data. Ten different Danish landscapes were generated and the ERA carried out for each landscape using two different assumed toxicities. The results showed negative impacts in all cases, but the extent and form in terms of impacts on abundance or occupancy differed greatly between landscapes. A meta-model was created, predicting impact from landscape and farming characteristics. Scenarios based on all combinations of farming and landscape for five landscapes representing extreme and middle impacts were created. The meta-models developed from the 10 real landscapes failed to predict impacts for these 25 scenarios. Landscape, farming, and the emergent density of hares all influenced the results of the risk assessment considerably. The study indicates that prediction of a reasonable worst case scenario is difficult from structural, farming or population metrics; rather the emergent properties generated from interactions between landscape, management and ecology are needed. Meta-modelling may also fail to predict impacts, even when restricting inputs to combinations of those used to create the model. Future ERA may therefore need to make use of multiple scenarios representing a wide range of conditions to avoid locally unacceptable risks. This approach could now be feasible Europe wide given the

  17. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    ..., and other environmental management issues. The book has been completely rewritten and its scope has been broadened to include discussions of the application of ERA to stressors other than chemical contaminants...

  18. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  19. Risk-based environmental assessment for uranium mines – some Canadian and Australian experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phaneuf, M.; Woods, P.; McKee, M.

    2014-01-01

    The uranium producing countries of Canada and Australia have independently developed regulatory frameworks emphasising the importance of human health and ecological risk assessments as core tools for ensuring protection of the environment and public. The value of such an approach is presented as well as practical lessons learned through recent applications of this regulatory model. In May 2000, the Canadian Atomic Energy Control Act was replaced by the Nuclear Safety and Control Act (NSCA). This law created the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, whose mission is to protect the health, safety and security of persons and the environment; and to implement Canada’s international commitments on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. From an environmental perspective, the new law added a requirement for the protection of the environment and non-human biota, and a responsibility over hazardous substances in addition to nuclear ones. The NSCA requires the prevention of unreasonable risk to, and adequate provision for the protection of, the environment and the health and safety of the public. It was decided that environmental and public protection would recognize the principles of pollution prevention and ALARA, and that it would be risk based. For Class 1 facilities and uranium mines and mills, Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessments are the core of both the Environmental Assessment process and the licensing process under the Nuclear Safety and Control Act. The Ecological Risk Assessment informs the Effluent and Environmental Monitoring Programs with the resultant monitoring data used to reinforce the risk assessments on a cyclical basis throughout the lifespan of the facility. A number of standards and regulatory documents have been completed supporting this environmental protection framework. In this presentation, a case study is used to illustrate the use of ERA for decision making. In the last decade or so in Australia uranium mining proposals normally require

  20. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  1. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  2. Assessing the relevance of ecotoxicological studies for regulatory decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudén, Christina; Adams, Julie; Ågerstrand, Marlene; Brock, Theo Cm; Poulsen, Veronique; Schlekat, Christian E; Wheeler, James R; Henry, Tala R

    2017-07-01

    Regulatory policies in many parts of the world recognize either the utility of or the mandate that all available studies be considered in environmental or ecological hazard and risk assessment (ERA) of chemicals, including studies from the peer-reviewed literature. Consequently, a vast array of different studies and data types need to be considered. The first steps in the evaluation process involve determining whether the study is relevant to the ERA and sufficiently reliable. Relevance evaluation is typically performed using existing guidance but involves application of "expert judgment" by risk assessors. In the present paper, we review published guidance for relevance evaluation and, on the basis of the practical experience within the group of authors, we identify additional aspects and further develop already proposed aspects that should be considered when conducting a relevance assessment for ecotoxicological studies. From a regulatory point of view, the overarching key aspect of relevance concerns the ability to directly or indirectly use the study in ERA with the purpose of addressing specific protection goals and ultimately regulatory decision making. Because ERA schemes are based on the appropriate linking of exposure and effect estimates, important features of ecotoxicological studies relate to exposure relevance and biological relevance. Exposure relevance addresses the representativeness of the test substance, environmental exposure media, and exposure regime. Biological relevance deals with the environmental significance of the test organism and the endpoints selected, the ecological realism of the test conditions simulated in the study, as well as a mechanistic link of treatment-related effects for endpoints to the protection goal identified in the ERA. In addition, uncertainties associated with relevance should be considered in the assessment. A systematic and transparent assessment of relevance is needed for regulatory decision making. The relevance

  3. Drug residues in urban water: A database for ecotoxicological risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destrieux, Doriane; Laurent, François; Budzinski, Hélène; Pedelucq, Julie; Vervier, Philippe; Gerino, Magali

    2017-12-31

    Human-use drug residues (DR) are only partially eliminated by waste water treatment plants (WWTPs), so that residual amounts can reach natural waters and cause environmental hazards. In order to properly manage these hazards in the aquatic environment, a database is made available that integrates the concentration ranges for DR, which cause adverse effects for aquatic organisms, and the temporal variations of the ecotoxicological risks. To implement this database for the ecotoxicological risk assessment (ERA database), the required information for each DR is the predicted no effect concentrations (PNECs), along with the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs). The risk assessment is based on the ratio between the PNECs and the PECs. Adverse effect data or PNECs have been found in the publicly available literature for 45 substances. These ecotoxicity test data have been extracted from 125 different sources. This ERA database contains 1157 adverse effect data and 287 PNECs. The efficiency of this ERA database was tested with a data set coming from a simultaneous survey of WWTPs and the natural environment. In this data set, 26 DR were searched for in two WWTPs and in the river. On five sampling dates, concentrations measured in the river for 10 DR could pose environmental problems of which 7 were measured only downstream of WWTP outlets. From scientific literature and measurements, data implementation with unit homogenisation in a single database facilitates the actual ecotoxicological risk assessment, and may be useful for further risk coming from data arising from the future field survey. Moreover, the accumulation of a large ecotoxicity data set in a single database should not only improve knowledge of higher risk molecules but also supply an objective tool to help the rapid and efficient evaluation of the risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Brief communication: the ecosystem perspective in ecotoxicology as a way forward for the ecological risk assessment of chemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Laender, Frederik; Janssen, Colin R

    2013-07-01

    One of the objectives of the European Union (EU) ecological risk assessment of chemicals (ERA) is to derive maximum environmental concentrations that are not expected to cause adverse ecological effects. To this end, related EU directives list protection goals as well as guidelines that should be used to reach these goals. It is generally accepted that the individual-level endpoints on which these guidelines are based do not correspond to the listed population- and ecosystem-level protection goals. In this article, we identify 5 research topics that are key to bridging this gap: 1) the refinement of population-level effects and recovery rates by explicitly taking into account competition and 2) predation, 3) the assessment of chemical effects on biodiversity, 4) the assessment of chemical stress on ecosystem functions and services, and 5) the quantification of the effects of chemical mixtures. In addition, we illustrate why an ecosystem perspective is needed to address these topics and to inform the risk assessment process. We propose the use of existing ecotoxicological community, food web, and ecosystem models to tackle these issues and discuss why new models are needed to predict chemical effects on biodiversity. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  5. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  6. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  7. Metal bioavailability in ecological risk assessment of freshwater ecosystems: From science to environmental management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Väänänen, Kristiina; Leppänen, Matti T; Chen, XuePing; Akkanen, Jarkko

    2018-01-01

    Metal contamination in freshwater ecosystems is a global issue and metal discharges to aquatic environments are monitored in order to protect aquatic life and human health. Bioavailability is an important factor determining metal toxicity. In aquatic systems, metal bioavailability depends on local water and sediment characteristics, and therefore, the risks are site-specific. Environmental quality standards (EQS) are used to manage the risks of metals in aquatic environments. In the simplest form of EQSs, total concentrations of metals in water or sediment are compared against pre-set acceptable threshold levels. Now, however, the environmental administration bodies have stated the need to incorporate metal bioavailability assessment tools into environmental regulation. Scientific advances have been made in metal bioavailability assessment, including passive samplers and computational models, such as biotic ligand models (BLM). However, the cutting-edge methods tend to be too elaborate or laborious for standard environmental monitoring. We review the commonly used metal bioavailability assessment methods and introduce the latest scientific advances that might be applied to environmental management in the future. We present the current practices in environmental management in North America, Europe and China, highlighting the good practices and the needs for improvement. Environmental management has met these new challenges with varying degrees of success: the USA has implemented site-specific environmental risk assessment for water and sediment phases, and they have already implemented metal mixture toxicity evaluation. The European Union is promoting the use of bioavailability and BLMs in ecological risk assessment (ERA), but metal mixture toxicity and sediment phase are still mostly neglected. China has regulation only for total concentrations of metals in surface water. We conclude that there is a need for (1) Advanced and up-to-date guidelines and legislation

  8. Nuclear power and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA): past through future applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamatelatos, M. G.; Moieni, P.; Everline, C. J.

    1995-03-01

    Nuclear power reactor safety in the United States is about to enter a new era -- an era of risk- based management and risk-based regulation. First, there was the age of `prescribed safety assessment,' during which a series of design-basis accidents in eight categories of severity, or classes, were postulated and analyzed. Toward the end of that era, it was recognized that `Class 9,' or `beyond design basis,' accidents would need special attention because of the potentially severe health and financial consequences of these accidents. The accident at Three Mile Island showed that sequences of low-consequence, high-frequency events and human errors can be much more risk dominant than the Class 9 accidents. A different form of safety assessment, PSA, emerged and began to gain ground against the deterministic safety establishment. Eventually, this led to the current regulatory requirements for individual plant examinations (IPEs). The IPEs can serve as a basis for risk-based regulation and management, a concept that may ultimately transform the U.S. regulatory process from its traditional deterministic foundations to a process predicated upon PSA. Beyond the possibility of a regulatory environment predicated upon PSA lies the possibility of using PSA as the foundation for managing daily nuclear power plant operations.

  9. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  10. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  11. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Work plan for conducting an ecological risk assessment at J-Field, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hlohowskyj, I.; Hayse, J.; Kuperman, R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment Div.] [and others

    1995-03-01

    The Environmental Management Division of Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG), Maryland, is conducting a remedial investigation and feasibility study (RI/FS) of the J-Field area at APG pursuant to the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. J-Field is within the Edgewood Area of APG in Harford County, Maryland, and activities at the Edgewood Area since World War II have included the development, manufacture, testing, and destruction of chemical agents and munitions. The J-Field site was used to destroy chemical agents and munitions by open burning and open detonation. This work plan presents the approach proposed to conduct an ecological risk assessment (ERA) as part of the RI/FS program at J-Field. This work plan identifies the locations and types of field studies proposed for each area of concern (AOC), the laboratory studies proposed to evaluate toxicity of media, and the methodology to be used in estimating doses to ecological receptors and discusses the approach that will be used to estimate and evaluate ecological risks at J-Field. Eight AOCs have been identified at J-Field, and the proposed ERA is designed to evaluate the potential for adverse impacts to ecological receptors from contaminated media at each AOC, as well as over the entire J-Field site. The proposed ERA approach consists of three major phases, incorporating field and laboratory studies as well as modeling. Phase 1 includes biotic surveys of the aquatic and terrestrial habitats, biological tissue sampling and analysis, and media toxicity testing at each AOC and appropriate reference locations. Phase 2 includes definitive toxicity testing of media from areas of known or suspected contamination or of media for which the Phase 1 results indicate toxicity or adverse ecological effects. In Phase 3, the uptake models initially developed in Phase 2 will be finalized, and contaminant dose to each receptor from all complete pathways will be estimated.

  13. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  14. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  15. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  16. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  17. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  18. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  19. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  20. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  1. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  2. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  3. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  4. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  5. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  6. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  7. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  8. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  9. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  10. A refined ecological risk assessment for California red-legged frog, Delta smelt, and California tiger salamander exposed to malathion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clemow, Yvonne H; Manning, Gillian E; Breton, Roger L; Winchell, Michael F; Padilla, Lauren; Rodney, Sara I; Hanzas, John P; Estes, Tammara L; Budreski, Katherine; Toth, Brent N; Hill, Katie L; Priest, Colleen D; Teed, R Scott; Knopper, Loren D; Moore, Dwayne Rj; Stone, Christopher T; Whatling, Paul

    2018-03-01

    The California red-legged frog (CRLF), Delta smelt (DS), and California tiger salamander (CTS) are 3 species listed under the United States Federal Endangered Species Act (ESA), all of which inhabit aquatic ecosystems in California. The US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has conducted deterministic screening-level risk assessments for these species potentially exposed to malathion, an organophosphorus insecticide and acaricide. Results from our screening-level analyses identified potential risk of direct effects to DS as well as indirect effects to all 3 species via reduction in prey. Accordingly, for those species and scenarios in which risk was identified at the screening level, we conducted a refined probabilistic risk assessment for CRLF, DS, and CTS. The refined ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted using best available data and approaches, as recommended by the 2013 National Research Council (NRC) report "Assessing Risks to Endangered and Threatened Species from Pesticides." Refined aquatic exposure models including the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), the Vegetative Filter Strip Modeling System (VFSMOD), the Variable Volume Water Model (VVWM), the Exposure Analysis Modeling System (EXAMS), and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were used to generate estimated exposure concentrations (EECs) for malathion based on worst-case scenarios in California. Refined effects analyses involved developing concentration-response curves for fish and species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) for fish and aquatic invertebrates. Quantitative risk curves, field and mesocosm studies, surface-water monitoring data, and incident reports were considered in a weight-of-evidence approach. Currently, labeled uses of malathion are not expected to result in direct effects to CRLF, DS or CTS, or indirect effects due to effects on fish and invertebrate prey. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:224-239. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and

  11. Safety in the nuclear era. Politics - strategy - arms control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siebel, G.

    1988-01-01

    Details are given on safety and the factors specifying safety in Europe; the history of the NATO and development of an alliance of sovereign states; nuclear deterrence - the politico-strategic standard of the nuclear era; the East/West struggle for military power; co-operative arms control - theory and practice of stability in the nuclear era; alternative schemes and models; SDI and EURECA - present and future chances and risks. The world is at the beginning of a fascinating development likely to be culminating in the control over and utilization of space, and the mastering of various technical problems be they of a civil or military nature. It remains to be seen whether man will be able to handle the new additional technical capacities in an ethically and politically responsible way. Be that as it may, political scepticism and negative reactions will not succeed in blocking the dynamic forces inherent in the development described. This is especially true for SDI and EURECA. Both schemes are full of both chances and risks. While chances ought to be made the most of risks must be controlled through policies guided by reason. (orig./HSCH) [de

  12. Benchmarking Global Food Safety Performances: The Era of Risk Intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valleé, Jean-Charles Le; Charlebois, Sylvain

    2015-10-01

    Food safety data segmentation and limitations hamper the world's ability to select, build up, monitor, and evaluate food safety performance. Currently, there is no metric that captures the entire food safety system, and performance data are not collected strategically on a global scale. Therefore, food safety benchmarking is essential not only to help monitor ongoing performance but also to inform continued food safety system design, adoption, and implementation toward more efficient and effective food safety preparedness, responsiveness, and accountability. This comparative study identifies and evaluates common elements among global food safety systems. It provides an overall world ranking of food safety performance for 17 Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) countries, illustrated by 10 indicators organized across three food safety risk governance domains: risk assessment (chemical risks, microbial risks, and national reporting on food consumption), risk management (national food safety capacities, food recalls, food traceability, and radionuclides standards), and risk communication (allergenic risks, labeling, and public trust). Results show all countries have very high food safety standards, but Canada and Ireland, followed by France, earned excellent grades relative to their peers. However, any subsequent global ranking study should consider the development of survey instruments to gather adequate and comparable national evidence on food safety.

  13. Echocardiographic assessment of the right ventricle in the current era: Application in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatachalam, Sridhar; Wu, Geru; Ahmad, Masood

    2017-12-01

    The right ventricle has unique structural and functional characteristics. It is now well recognized that the so-called forgotten ventricle is a key player in cardiovascular physiology. Furthermore, there is accumulating evidence that demonstrates right ventricular dysfunction as an important marker of morbidity and mortality in several commonly encountered clinical situations such as heart failure, pulmonary hypertension, pulmonary embolism, right ventricular myocardial infarction, and adult congenital heart disease. In contrast to the left ventricle, echocardiographic assessment of right ventricular function is more challenging as volume estimations are not possible without the use of three-dimensional (3D) echocardiography. Guidelines on chamber quantification provide a standardized approach to assessment of the right ventricle. The technique and limitations of each of the parameters for RV size and function need to be fully understood. In this era of multimodality imaging, echocardiography continues to remain a useful tool for the initial assessment and follow-up of patients with right heart pathology. Several novel approaches such as 3D and strain imaging of the right ventricle have expanded the usefulness of this indispensable modality. © 2017, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  15. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  16. Selection of bee species for environmental risk assessment of GM cotton in the Brazilian Cerrado

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen Sílvia Soares Pires

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to list potential candidate bee species for environmental risk assessment (ERA of genetically modified (GM cotton and to identify the most suited bee species for this task, according to their abundance and geographical distribution. Field inventories of bee on cotton flowers were performed in the states of Bahia and Mato Grosso, and in Distrito Federal, Brazil. During a 344 hour sampling, 3,470 bees from 74 species were recovered, at eight sites. Apis mellifera dominated the bee assemblages at all sites. Sampling at two sites that received no insecticide application was sufficient to identify the three most common and geographically widespread wild species: Paratrigona lineata, Melissoptila cnecomola, and Trigona spinipes, which could be useful indicators of pollination services in the ERA. Indirect ordination of common wild species revealed that insecticides reduced the number of native bee species and that interannual variation in bee assemblages may be low. Accumulation curves of rare bee species did not saturate, as expected in tropical and megadiverse regions. Species-based approaches are limited to analyze negative impacts of GM cotton on pollinator biological diversity. The accumulation rate of rare bee species, however, may be useful for evaluating possible negative effects of GM cotton on bee diversity.

  17. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  18. Sterility and Stigma in an Era of HIV/AIDS: Narratives of Risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examines the experience and interpretations of infertility and sterility in northern Botswana. Specifically it highlights the role of stigma and impression management among Tswana men and women through their narratives and discourse about childbearing and personhood in an era of HIV/AIDS. The paper ...

  19. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  20. Significance of metabolites in the environmental risk assessment of pharmaceuticals consumed by human.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Eun Jeong; Lee, Dong Soo

    2017-08-15

    The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the significance of metabolites to the ERA of human pharmaceuticals. The predicted exposure concentrations (PECs) in surface water were estimated for a total of 24 selected active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and their metabolites using a life cycle based emission estimation model combined with a multimedia fate model with Monte-Carlo calculations. With the eco-toxicity data, the hazard quotients (HQs) of the metabolites were compared with those of individual parents alone. The results showed that PEC or toxicity or both of the metabolites was predicted to be higher than that of their parent APIs, which resulted in a total of 18 metabolites (from 12 parents) that have greater HQs than their parents. This result clearly demonstrated that some metabolites may potentially pose greater risk than their parent APIs in the water environment. Therefore, significance of metabolites should be carefully evaluated for monitoring strategy, priority setting, and scoping of the environmental risk assessment of APIs. The method used in the present work may serve as a pragmatic approach for the purpose of preliminary screening or priority setting of environmental risk posed by both APIs and their metabolites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  2. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. J. Bos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  3. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  4. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  5. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  6. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  7. Severe pulmonary hemorrhage in the premature newborn infant: analysis of presurfactant and surfactant eras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, K R; Davidson, K M; Henry, M; Nielsen, H C

    1999-01-01

    We undertook a case-control study of premature infants who developed clinically significant, severe pulmonary hemorrhage (PH) in the presurfactant and surfactant eras to learn more about the cause of severe PH and whether the pathogenesis of severe PH has changed with the advent of surfactant therapy. Severe PH was defined as an acute onset of severe endotracheal bleeding with an acute drop in hematocrit and the development of multilobar infiltrates on chest radiograph. Eleven premature infants from the presurfactant era population and 17 premature infants from the surfactant era population met the criteria for severe PH, all with gestational ages <32 weeks and birth weights <1,500 g (very low birth weight infants). These were each matched by gestational age, date of birth, birth order (for twins), and birth weight to 2 controls. The incidence of severe PH in infants of gestational age <32 weeks was similar in the two eras (1.8% in the presurfactant era and 3.0% in the surfactant era). Severe PH was not associated with maternal characteristics such as drug use or prenatal care, pregnancy complications, evidence of intrauterine anoxia, hyaline membrane disease, frequency of endotracheal suctioning, or patent ductus arteriosus. Premature infants suffering from severe PH in the presurfactant era required more delivery room resuscitation and had more severe early respiratory disease during the first 12 h of life as compared with their controls. However, these differences were not present in the group from the surfactant era. Infants with severe PH were more likely to have birth weights below the third percentile for gestation (severe intrauterine growth restriction). The proportion of infants receiving surfactant, and the number of surfactant doses used, did not differ between severe-PH infants and their controls in the surfactant era group. We conclude that severe intrauterine growth restriction represents a risk factor for severe PH in very low birth weight infants

  8. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  9. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  10. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  11. Selection of focal earthworm species as non-target soil organisms for environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Capelle, Christine; Schrader, Stefan; Arpaia, Salvatore

    2016-04-01

    By means of a literature survey, earthworm species of significant relevance for soil functions in different biogeographical regions of Europe (Atlantic, Boreal, Mediterranean) were identified. These focal earthworm species, defined here according to the EFSA Guidance Document on the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of genetically modified plants, are typical for arable soils under crop rotations with maize and/or potatoes within the three regions represented by Ireland, Sweden and Spain, respectively. Focal earthworm species were selected following a matrix of four steps: Identification of functional groups, categorization of non-target species, ranking species on ecological criteria, and final selection of focal species. They are recommended as appropriate non-target organisms to assess environmental risks of genetically modified (GM) crops; in this case maize and potatoes. In total, 44 literature sources on earthworms in arable cropping systems including maize or potato from Ireland, Sweden and Spain were collected, which present information on species diversity, individual density and specific relevance for soil functions. By means of condensed literature data, those species were identified which (i) play an important functional role in respective soil systems, (ii) are well adapted to the biogeographical regions, (iii) are expected to occur in high abundances under cultivation of maize or potato and (iv) fulfill the requirements for an ERA test system based on life-history traits. First, primary and secondary decomposers were identified as functional groups being exposed to the GM crops. In a second step, anecic and endogeic species were categorized as potential species. In step three, eight anecic and endogeic earthworm species belonging to the family Lumbricidae were ranked as relevant species: Aporrectodea caliginosa, Aporrectodea rosea, Aporrectodea longa, Allolobophora chlorotica, Lumbricus terrestris, Lumbricus friendi, Octodrilus complanatus and

  12. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  13. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  14. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  15. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  16. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  17. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  18. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  19. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  20. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  1. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  2. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  4. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  5. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  6. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  7. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  8. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  9. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  10. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  11. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  12. Lymphedema of the arm and breast in irradiated breast cancer patients: risks in an era of dramatically changing axillary surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goffman, Thomas E; Laronga, Christine; Wilson, Lori; Elkins, David

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess risk for lymphedema of the breast and arm in radiotherapy patients in an era of less extensive axillary surgery. Breast cancer patients treated for cure were reviewed, with a minimum follow-up of 1.5 years from the end of treatment. Clinical, surgical, and radiation-related variables were tested for statistical association with arm and breast lymphedema using regression analyses, t-tests, and chi-squared analyses. Between January 1998 and June 2001, 240 women received radiation for localized breast cancer in our center. The incidence of lymphedema of the ipsilateral breast, arm, and combined (breast and arm) was 9.6%, 7.6%, and 1.8%, respectively, with a median follow-up of 27 months. For breast edema, t-test and multivariate analysis showed body mass index (BMI) to be significant (p = 0.043, p = 0.0038), as was chi-squared and multivariate testing for site of tumor in the breast (p = 0.0043, p = 0.0035). For arm edema, t-test and multivariate analyses showed the number of nodes removed to be significant (p = 0.0040, p = 0.0458); the size of the tumor was also significant by multivariate analyses (p = 0.0027). Tumor size appeared significant because a number of very large cancers failed locally and caused cancer-related obstructive lymphedema. In our center, even modern, limited level 1-2 axillary dissection and tangential irradiation carries the risk of arm lymphedema that would argue in favor of sentinel node biopsy. For breast edema, disruption of draining lymphatics by surgery and radiation with boost to the upper outer quadrant increased risk, especially for the obese. Fortunately both breast and arm edema benefited from manual lymphatic drainage.

  13. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  14. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  15. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  16. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  17. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  18. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  19. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  20. An assessment of survey measures used across key epidemiologic studies of United States Gulf War I Era Veterans

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Over the past two decades, 12 large epidemiologic studies and 2 registries have focused on U.S. veterans of the 1990–1991 Gulf War Era. We conducted a review of these studies’ research tools to identify existing gaps and overlaps of efforts to date, and to advance development of the next generation of Gulf War Era survey tools. Overall, we found that many of the studies used similar instruments. Questions regarding exposures were more similar across studies than other domains, while neurocognitive and psychological tools were the most variable. Many studies focused on self-reported survey results, with a range of validation practices. However, physical exams, biomedical assessments, and specimen storage were not common. This review suggests that while research may be able to pool data from past surveys, future surveys need to consider how their design can yield data comparable with previous surveys. Additionally, data that incorporate recent technologies in specimen and genetic analyses would greatly enhance such survey data. When combined with existing data on deployment-related exposures and post-deployment health conditions, longitudinal follow-up of existing studies within this collaborative framework could represent an important step toward improving the health of veterans. PMID:23302181

  1. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  2. Targeted Feedback in the Milestones Era: Utilization of the Ask-Tell-Ask Feedback Model to Promote Reflection and Self-Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Judith C; Colbert, Colleen Y; Pien, Lily C; Dannefer, Elaine F; Taylor, Christine A

    2015-01-01

    The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education's Milestones Project focuses trainee education on the formation of valued behaviors and skills believed to be necessary for trainees to become independent practitioners. The development and refinement of behaviors and skills outlined within the milestones will require learners to monitor, reflect, and assess their own performance over time. External feedback provides an opportunity for learners to recalibrate their self-assessments, thereby enabling them to develop better self-monitoring and self-assessment skills. Yet, feedback to trainees is frequently generic, such as "great job," "nice work," or "you need to read more." In this article, we describe a feedback model that faculty can use to provide specific feedback, while increasing accountability for learners. We offer practical examples of its use in a variety of settings in the milestone era. The Ask-Tell-Ask (ATA) patient communication skills strategy, which was adapted for use as a trainee feedback model 10 years ago at our institution, is a learner-centered approach for reinforcing and modifying behaviors. The model is efficient, promotes learner accountability, and helps trainees develop reflection and self-assessment skills. A feedback agreement further enhances ATA by establishing a shared understanding of goals for the educational encounter. The ATA feedback model, combined with a feedback agreement, encourages learners to self-identify strengths and areas for improvement, before receiving feedback. Personal monitoring, reflection, self-assessment, and increased accountability make ATA an ideal learner-centered feedback model for the milestones era, which focuses on performance improvement over time. We believe the introduction of the ATA feedback model in surgical training programs is a step in the right direction towards meaningful programmatic culture change. Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier

  3. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  4. Pulmonary arterial hypertension: tailoring treatment to risk in the current era

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean Gaine

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent advances in the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH have led to improved patient outcomes. Multiple PAH therapies are now available and optimising the use of these drugs in clinical practice is vital. In this review, we discuss the management of PAH patients in the context of current treatment guidelines and supporting clinical evidence. In clinical practice, considerable emphasis is placed on the importance of making treatment decisions guided by each patient's risk status, which should be assessed using multiple prognostic parameters. As PAH is a progressive disease, regular assessments are essential to ensure that any change in risk is detected in a timely manner and treatment is adjusted accordingly. With the availability of therapies that target three different pathogenic pathways, combination therapy is now the standard of care. For most patients, this involves dual combination therapy with agents targeting the endothelin and nitric oxide pathways. Therapies targeting the prostacyclin pathway should be added for patients receiving dual combination therapy who do not achieve a low-risk status. There is also a need for a holistic approach to treatment beyond pharmacological therapies. Implementation of all these approaches will ensure that PAH patients receive maximal benefit from currently available therapies.

  5. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2001-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

  6. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  7. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  8. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  9. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  10. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  11. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  12. Utility of population models to reduce uncertainty and increase value relevance in ecological risk assessments of pesticides: an example based on acute mortality data for daphnids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Niklas; Stark, John D

    2012-04-01

    Traditionally, ecological risk assessments (ERA) of pesticides have been based on risk ratios, where the predicted concentration of the chemical is compared to the concentration that causes biological effects. The concentration that causes biological effect is mostly determined from laboratory experiments using endpoints on the level of the individual (e.g., mortality and reproduction). However, the protection goals are mostly defined at the population level. To deal with the uncertainty in the necessary extrapolations, safety factors are used. Major disadvantages with this simplified approach is that it is difficult to relate a risk ratio to the environmental protection goals, and that the use of fixed safety factors can result in over- as well as underprotective assessments. To reduce uncertainty and increase value relevance in ERA, it has been argued that population models should be used more frequently. In the present study, we have used matrix population models for 3 daphnid species (Ceriodaphnia dubia, Daphnia magna, and D. pulex) to reduce uncertainty and increase value relevance in the ERA of a pesticide (spinosad). The survival rates in the models were reduced in accordance with data from traditional acute mortality tests. As no data on reproductive effects were available, the conservative assumption that no reproduction occurred during the exposure period was made. The models were used to calculate the minimum population size and the time to recovery. These endpoints can be related to the European Union (EU) protection goals for aquatic ecosystems in the vicinity of agricultural fields, which state that reversible population level effects are acceptable if there is recovery within an acceptable (undefined) time frame. The results of the population models were compared to the acceptable (according to EU documents) toxicity exposure ratio (TER) that was based on the same data. At the acceptable TER, which was based on the most sensitive species (C. dubia

  13. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  14. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  15. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  16. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  17. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  18. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  19. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  20. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  1. Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abram, Nerilie J; McGregor, Helen V; Tierney, Jessica E; Evans, Michael N; McKay, Nicholas P; Kaufman, Darrell S

    2016-08-25

    The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.

  2. Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, Hiromitsu

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

  3. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  4. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  5. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  6. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  7. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  8. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  9. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  10. Assessing environmental impacts of genetically modified plants on non-target organisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arpaia, Salvatore; Birch, A.N.E.; Kiss, Jozsef; Loon, van Joop J.A.; Messéan, Antoine; Nuti, Marco; Perry, Joe N.; Sweet, Jeremy B.; Tebbe, Christoph C.

    2017-01-01

    In legal frameworks worldwide, genetically modified plants (GMPs) are subjected to pre-market environmental risk assessment (ERA) with the aim of identifying potential effects on the environment. In the European Union, the EFSA Guidance Document introduces the rationale that GMPs, as well as their

  11. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  13. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  14. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  15. Procedure to select test organisms for environmental risk assessment of genetically modified crops in aquatic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbeck, Angelika; Bundschuh, Rebecca; Bundschuh, Mirco; Hofmann, Frieder; Oehen, Bernadette; Otto, Mathias; Schulz, Ralf; Trtikova, Miluse

    2017-11-01

    For a long time, the environmental risk assessment (ERA) of genetically modified (GM) crops focused mainly on terrestrial ecosystems. This changed when it was scientifically established that aquatic ecosystems are exposed to GM crop residues that may negatively affect aquatic species. To assist the risk assessment process, we present a tool to identify ecologically relevant species usable in tiered testing prior to authorization or for biological monitoring in the field. The tool is derived from a selection procedure for terrestrial ecosystems with substantial but necessary changes to adequately consider the differences in the type of ecosystems. By using available information from the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC), the procedure can draw upon existing biological data on aquatic systems. The proposed procedure for aquatic ecosystems was tested for the first time during an expert workshop in 2013, using the cultivation of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) maize as the GM crop and 1 stream type as the receiving environment in the model system. During this workshop, species executing important ecological functions in aquatic environments were identified in a stepwise procedure according to predefined ecological criteria. By doing so, we demonstrated that the procedure is practicable with regard to its goal: From the initial long list of 141 potentially exposed aquatic species, 7 species and 1 genus were identified as the most suitable candidates for nontarget testing programs. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:974-979. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  16. Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

  17. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  18. Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.

    1976-04-01

    The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

  19. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  20. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  1. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  2. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  3. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  4. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  5. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  6. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  7. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  8. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  9. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  10. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  11. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  12. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  13. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2000-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)

  14. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  15. Approach and Strategy for Performing Ecological Risk Assessments for the Department of Energy Oak Ridge Field Office Environmental Restoration Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter, G.W. II

    1992-01-01

    This technical memorandum provides guidance for planning and performing ecological risk assessments (ERAs) on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR). This work was performed under Work Breakdown Structure 1.4.12.2.3.04.07.02 (Activity Data Sheet 8304) and meets an Environmental Restoration Program milestone for FY 95. The strategy discussed in this report is consistent with the overall strategy for site management and Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) compliance developed for the ORR and relevant U.S. Environmental Protection Agency documents and guidance. The general approach and strategy presented herein was developed for the ORR, but it could be applicable to other complex CERCLA sites that possess significant ecological resources.

  16. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  17. Cecal intubation rates in different eras of endoscopic technological development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matyja, Maciej; Pasternak, Artur; Szura, Mirosław; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Major, Piotr; Rembiasz, Kazimierz

    2018-03-01

    Colonoscopy plays a critical role in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening and has been widely regarded as the gold standard. Cecal intubation rate (CIR) is one of the well-defined quality indicators used to assess colonoscopy. To assess the impact of new technologies on the quality of colonoscopy by assessing completion rates. This was a dual-center study at the 2 nd Department of Surgery at Jagiellonian University Medical College and at the Specialist Center "Medicina" in Krakow, Poland. The CIR and cecal intubation time (CIT) in three different eras of technological advancement were determined. The study enrolled 27 463 patients who underwent colonoscopy as part of a national CRC screening program. The patients were divided into three groups: group I - 3408 patients examined between 2000 and 2003 (optical endoscopes); group II - 10 405 patients examined between 2004 and 2008 (standard electronic endoscopes); and group III - 13 650 patients examined between 2009 and 2014 (modern endoscopes). There were statistically significant differences in the CIR between successive eras. The CIR in group I (2000-2003) was 69.75%, in group II (2004-2008) was 92.32%, and in group III (2009-2014) was 95.17%. The mean CIT was significantly reduced in group III. Our study shows that the technological innovation of novel endoscopy devices has a great influence on the effectiveness of the CRC screening program. The new era of endoscopic technological development has the potential to reduce examination-related patient discomfort, obviate the need for sedation and increase diagnostic yields.

  18. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  19. Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

    2001-01-01

    Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

  20. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  1. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  2. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

  3. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  4. Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

    2009-04-01

    There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

  5. Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turturro, A; Hart, R W

    1987-01-01

    A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

  6. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  7. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  8. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  10. Three eras of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huq, Saleemul; Toulmin, Camilla

    2006-10-15

    Climate change as a global challenge has evolved through a series of stages in the last few decades. We are now on the brink of a new era which will see the terms of the debate shift once again. The different eras are characterised by the scientific evidence, public perceptions, responses and engagement of different groups to address the problem. In the first era, from the late 1980s to 2000, climate change was seen as an “environmental” problem to do with prevention of future impacts on the planet's climate systems over the next fifty to hundred years, through reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases, known as “mitigation”. The second era can be said to have started around the turn of the millennium, with the recognition that there will be some unavoidable impacts from climate change in the near term (over the next decade or two). These impacts must be coped with through “adaptation”, as well as mitigation, to prevent much more severe and possibly catastrophic impacts in the longer term. It has become clear that many of the impacts of climate change in the near term are likely to fall on the poorest countries and communities. The third era, which we are just about to enter, will see the issue change from tackling an environmental or development problem to a question of “global justice”. It will engage with a much wider array of citizens from around the world than previous eras.

  11. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  12. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  13. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  14. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  15. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  16. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-01-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

  17. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  18. MEMAKNAI SUMPAH PEMUDA DI ERA REFORMASI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutejo K. Widodo

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The moment of Sumpah Pemuda (Young Man Oath took place 84 years ago, reflecting the spirit of nationalism that is still very important in this Reformation era. This paper endeavors to dig deeper meaning of Sumpah Pemuda in its pre-independence era and applying it to our contemporary situation. The method used here is historical research using literature resources, such as articles, books, and other readings in internet. It is then concluded that the spirit of Sumpah Pemuda should be our contemplative materials and valuable Iesson so that Reformation era may succeed in achieving national goals stated in the Constitution, a society that is fair, prosperous, and democratic. Keywords: Sumpah Pemuda, Reformation era, nationalism.

  19. Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heikkeroe, Topi

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology

  20. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  1. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  2. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  3. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  4. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  5. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  6. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  7. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  8. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  9. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

  10. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  11. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  12. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  13. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  14. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  15. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  17. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  18. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  19. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  20. 76 FR 44891 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-27

    ...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our draft environmental assessment for the proposed...-2817 before coming. The petition, draft environmental assessment, and plant pest risk assessment are...

  1. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

  2. Sustainable and safe design of footwear integrating ecological footprint and risk criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herva, Marta; Alvarez, Antonio; Roca, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → The ecological footprint (EF) is a suitable screening indicator to assist the assessment of the sustainability of an ecodesign proposal. → The EF does not consider the risk derived from hazardous substances in its evaluation. → Environmental risk assessment (ERA) successfully complemented the evaluation of the EF providing safety criteria. → Options that exceeded the safety limits for Hazard Quotient and Cancer Risk where discarded, thus guaranteeing the protection of children. → Trade-offs among criteria could be established by the application of fuzzy logic techniques to derive an ecodesign index. - Abstract: The ecodesign of a product implies that different potential environmental impacts of diverse nature must be taken into account considering its whole life cycle, apart from the general design criteria (i.e. technical, functional, ergonomic, aesthetic or economic). In this sense, a sustainability assessment methodology, ecological footprint (EF), and environmental risk assessment (ERA), were combined for the first time to derive complementary criteria for the ecodesign of footwear. Four models of children's shoes were analyzed and compared. The synthetic shoes obtained a smaller EF (6.5 gm 2 ) when compared to the leather shoes (11.1 gm 2 ). However, high concentrations of hazardous substances were detected in the former, even making the Hazard Quotient (HQ) and the Cancer Risk (CR) exceed the recommended safety limits for one of the synthetic models analyzed. Risk criteria were prioritized in this case and, consequently, the design proposal was discarded. For the other cases, the perspective provided by the indicators of different nature was balanced to accomplish a fairest evaluation. The selection of fibers produced under sustainable criteria and the reduction of the materials consumption was recommended, since the area requirements would be minimized and the absence of hazardous compounds would ensure safety conditions during the

  3. Sustainable and safe design of footwear integrating ecological footprint and risk criteria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herva, Marta [Sustainable Processes and Products Engineering Group, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Campus Vida, 15705 Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Alvarez, Antonio [Industrias de Diseno Textil, S.A., Edificio Inditex, Av. de la Diputacion s/n, Poligono de Sabon, 15142 Arteixo - A Coruna (Spain); Roca, Enrique, E-mail: enrique.roca@usc.es [Sustainable Processes and Products Engineering Group, Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Santiago de Compostela, Campus Vida, 15705 Santiago de Compostela (Spain)

    2011-09-15

    Highlights: {yields} The ecological footprint (EF) is a suitable screening indicator to assist the assessment of the sustainability of an ecodesign proposal. {yields} The EF does not consider the risk derived from hazardous substances in its evaluation. {yields} Environmental risk assessment (ERA) successfully complemented the evaluation of the EF providing safety criteria. {yields} Options that exceeded the safety limits for Hazard Quotient and Cancer Risk where discarded, thus guaranteeing the protection of children. {yields} Trade-offs among criteria could be established by the application of fuzzy logic techniques to derive an ecodesign index. - Abstract: The ecodesign of a product implies that different potential environmental impacts of diverse nature must be taken into account considering its whole life cycle, apart from the general design criteria (i.e. technical, functional, ergonomic, aesthetic or economic). In this sense, a sustainability assessment methodology, ecological footprint (EF), and environmental risk assessment (ERA), were combined for the first time to derive complementary criteria for the ecodesign of footwear. Four models of children's shoes were analyzed and compared. The synthetic shoes obtained a smaller EF (6.5 gm{sup 2}) when compared to the leather shoes (11.1 gm{sup 2}). However, high concentrations of hazardous substances were detected in the former, even making the Hazard Quotient (HQ) and the Cancer Risk (CR) exceed the recommended safety limits for one of the synthetic models analyzed. Risk criteria were prioritized in this case and, consequently, the design proposal was discarded. For the other cases, the perspective provided by the indicators of different nature was balanced to accomplish a fairest evaluation. The selection of fibers produced under sustainable criteria and the reduction of the materials consumption was recommended, since the area requirements would be minimized and the absence of hazardous compounds would

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  5. Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

  6. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith

    2001-01-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in practice, decision

  7. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith [Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom). Centre for Environmental Research and Training; Pollard, Simon; Twigger-Ross, Clare [National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, London (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in

  8. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  9. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  10. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  11. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, Patrick [Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General XI, Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection (Belgium)

    1992-07-01

    In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

  12. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, Patrick

    1992-01-01

    In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

  13. El lenguaje en la era digital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Carlos Vergara Silva

    1998-02-01

    Con base en la interrelación entre lenguaje y pensamiento se plantea el papel fundamental que el lenguaje ocupa en el modelo económico, educativo y cultural generado por la aparición de la era digital o era del conocimiento. en este artículo se evidencian los retos que genera una era marcada por un esquema digital en el desarrollo y uso de habilidades comunicativas tanto en la docencia superior como en el ejercicio profesional eficiente.

  14. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  15. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  16. Making the transition to the third era of natural resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephenson, Nathan L.

    2015-01-01

    We are entering the third era of National Park Service (NPS) natural resources management— an era defined by rapid and unprecedented global changes. This third era promises to overturn not only some of our most fundamental assumptions about parks and protected areas, but also many of the ideals we currently hold dear. A common initial reaction to the diverse challenges of this transition is to feel overwhelmed and adrift; I have certainly had such feelings myself. But these feelings carry the risk of reducing our effectiveness as resource stewards right when we can least afford to be less effective: during a transition that is demanding us to be particularly clear-headed and far-seeing. Here I briefly examine some of the challenges of this new era, focusing on those that can most often elicit feelings of discouragement. When we examine the challenges individually, they begin to lose some of their ability to cast gloom—especially when we consider them in the light of lessons from an earlier fundamental transition in NPS natural resources management, beginning a half-century ago. My perspective is shaped by my 35 years as a place-based scientist stationed in a large national park (Sequoia and Kings Canyon), and by my passion for national parks in general. While the discussion that follows is most relevant to large national parks set aside primarily for their natural features, several of the ideas are also relevant to other park units.

  17. Negotiating the use of formative assessment for learning in an era of accountability testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Xinying

    The purpose of this collaborative action research was to understand how science educators can negotiate the tension between integrating formative assessment (FA) for students' learning and meeting the need for standardized summative assessment (testing) from a critical perspective. Using formative assessment in the era of accountability testing was a process in which the science educators identified the ways that the standardized testing system constrained the teacher's use of FA to improve students' learning, sought solutions to overcome the obstacles and came to understand how FA can be utilized to neutralize the power relationship between the institutional requirement and classroom teaching and learning. The challenge of doing FA under the pressure of standardized testing mainly lie in two dimensions: one was the demand of teaching all the desired standard-based content to all students in a limited amount of time and the sufficient time and flexibility required by doing FA to improve students' understanding, the other was the different levels of knowledge and forms of knowledge representation on FA and tests. The negotiation of doing FA for teaching standards and preparing students for tests entailed six aspects for the collaborative team, including clarifying teaching objectives, reconstructing instructional activities, negotiating with time constraints, designing effective FA activities, attending to students' needs in doing FA, and modifying end-of-unit tests to better assess the learning goals. As the teacher's instructional goals evolved to be more focused on conceptual understanding of standards and more thorough understanding for less activities, she perceived doing FA for learning and preparing students for standardized tests as more congruent. By integrating both divergent and convergent FA into instruction as well as modifying tests to be more aligned with standards, students' learning were enhanced and they were also being prepared for tests. This

  18. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  19. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  20. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  1. Dakwah di Era Digital

    OpenAIRE

    Budiantoro, Wahyu

    2018-01-01

    These days dakwah is not only interpreted as transformation of a pure religious value, but also transformation of a more relevant value including many aspects in digital era. Digital era is when society succumbed into the flow of information causing cultural shock and difficulties on synthesizing meaning from those scattered information. Dakwah on Digital age must accommodate societal needs which tend to move into a mass society. It results in strategy and more humane and innovative dakwah me...

  2. 78 FR 15894 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-13

    .... FDA-2012-N-1258] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for... comment period for a document entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/ [[Page... ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside the Farm...

  3. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  4. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  5. ERA-40

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — ERA-40 project was to produce and promote the use of a comprehensive set of global analysis describing the state of the atmosphere and land and ocean-wave conditions...

  6. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  7. Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi

    2010-01-01

    Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

  8. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  9. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  10. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  11. Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narumiya, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

  12. Risk assessment of safety violations for coal mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Megan Orsulaka; Vladislav Kecojevicb; Larry Graysona; Antonio Nietoa [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States). Dept of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2010-09-15

    This article presents an application of a risk assessment approach in characterising the risks associated with safety violations in underground bituminous mines in Pennsylvania using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) citation database. The MSHA database on citations provides an opportunity to assess risks in mines through scrutiny of violations of mandatory safety standards. In this study, quantitative risk assessment is performed, which allows determination of the frequency of occurrence of safety violations (through associated citations) as well as the consequences of them in terms of penalty assessments. Focus is on establishing risk matrices on citation experiences of mines, which can give early indication of emerging potentially serious problems. The resulting frequency, consequence and risk rankings present valuable tools for prioritising resource allocations, determining control strategies, and could potentially contribute to more proactive prevention of incidents and injuries.

  13. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  14. Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

  15. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  16. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  17. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  18. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  19. Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ragozin, A.L.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

  20. Resource handbook on transport risk assessment (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; Luna, R.; Weiner, R.; Yoshimura, R.; Detrick, C.; Dunn, T.; Maheras, S.; Bhatnager, S.; Kapoor, A.K.

    2003-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program established the DOE Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group (TRAWG) to develop the Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment, published in July 2002. The working group is comprised of technical experts representing DOE national laboratories, the DOE Naval Reactors Program, and DOE contractors. The motivation behind preparing this handbook was to document and disseminate lessons learned and information accumulated from more than 20 years of experience by DOE and its contractors in preparing transport risk assessments that address the shipment of virtually all types of radioactive materials and wastes. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information on conducting transport risk assessments for shipments of radioactive materials or wastes under both normal and accident conditions. The paper provides an overview of the information contained in the handbook. It should be recognised that development of radioactive materials transport risk assessment is an ongoing process, and that the analysis methods are regularly improved. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment appears on the Web at www.ntp.doe.gov/transrisk_handbook.pdf. (author)

  1. Safety and security risk assessments--now demystified!

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Donald E

    2011-01-01

    Safety/security risk assessments no longer need to spook nor baffle healthcare safety/security managers. This grid template provides at-at-glance quick lookup of the possible threats, the affected people and things, a priority ranking of these risks, and a workable solution for each risk. Using the standard document, spreadsheet, or graphics software already available on your computer, you can easily use a scientific method to produce professional looking risk assessments that get quickly understood by both senior managers and first responders alike!

  2. Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter II, G.W.

    2003-06-18

    The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.

  3. DNA barcoding simplifies environmental risk assessment of genetically modified crops in biodiverse regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chinyere V Nzeduru

    Full Text Available Transgenes encoding for insecticidal crystal (Cry proteins from the soil-dwelling bacterium Bacillus Thuringiensis have been widely introduced into Genetically Modified (GM crops to confer protection against insect pests. Concern that these transgenes may also harm beneficial or otherwise valued insects (so-called Non Target Organisms, NTOs represents a major element of the Environmental Risk Assessments (ERAs used by all countries prior to commercial release. Compiling a comprehensive list of potentially susceptible NTOs is therefore a necessary part of an ERA for any Cry toxin-containing GM crop. In partly-characterised and biodiverse countries, NTO identification is slowed by the need for taxonomic expertise and time to enable morphological identifications. This limitation represents a potentially serious barrier to timely adoption of GM technology in some developing countries. We consider Bt Cry1A cowpea (Vigna unguiculata in Nigeria as an exemplar to demonstrate how COI barcoding can provide a simple and cost-effective means of addressing this problem. Over a period of eight weeks, we collected 163 insects from cowpea flowers across the agroecological and geographic range of the crop in Nigeria. These individuals included 32 Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs spanning four Orders and that could mostly be assigned to genus or species level. They included 12 Lepidopterans and two Coleopterans (both potentially sensitive to different groups of Cry proteins. Thus, barcode-assisted diagnoses were highly harmonised across groups (typically to genus or species level and so were insensitive to expertise or knowledge gaps. Decisively, the entire study was completed within four months at a cost of less than 10,000 US$. The broader implications of the findings for food security and the capacity for safe adoption of GM technology are briefly explored.

  4. Ecological Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Higher Plants (GMHP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, C.; Damgaard, C.; Kjellsson, G.

    Preface This publication is a first version of a manual identifying the data needs for ecological risk assessment of genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). It is the intention of the authors to stimulate further discussion of what data are needed in order to conduct a proper ecological risk...... of the project Biotechnology: elements in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. December 1999 Christian Kjær Introduction In ecological risk assessment of transgenic plants, information on a wide range of subjects is needed for an effective and reliable assessment procedure...... in the amendment to the directive. This report suggests a structured way to identify the type of data needed to perform a sound ecological risk assessment for genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). The identified data types are intended to support the evaluation of the following risks: risk of invasion...

  5. Breast Cancer Screening in an Era of Personalized Regimens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F.; Sprague, Brian L.; Barlow, William E.; Haas, Jennifer S.; Tosteson, Anna N.A.; Schnall, Mitchell D.; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M.; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L.; Conant, Emily F.

    2014-01-01

    Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women’s health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for “overdiagnosis,” and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a “1-size-fits-all” guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women’s risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. PMID:24830599

  6. Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horie, Seichi

    2010-09-01

    Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  7. Occupational Health Policies on Risk Assessment in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seichi Horie

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law of Japan requires abnormalities identifi ed in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording “employers shall endeavor.” Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifi es criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer signifi cant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, fi nancial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  8. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  9. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  10. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  11. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  12. Supplementing quantitative risk assessments with a stage addressing the risk understanding of the decision maker

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative probabilistic risk assessment produces a conditional risk description given the knowledge of the analysts (formulated to a large extent through assumptions). However, important aspects of the risk may be concealed in the background knowledge of the analyst and the assumptions. This paper discusses this issue, the main purpose being to present a two-stage risk assessment approach where the second stage addresses the risk understanding of the decision maker. This second-stage is to a large extent qualitative. The approach is novel with its separation between the analysts' conditional risk descriptions using probability judgments, and the decision maker's risk understanding. The approach aims at improving the use of risk assessment in practical decision making by ensuring that the results of the risk assessments are properly interpreted and the key aspects of risk, uncertainty and knowledge are brought to attention for the decision makers. Examples are used to illustrate the approach. - Highlights: • A quantitative risk assessment produces a conditional risk description. • The decision maker (DM) needs to address risk beyond this description. • The paper presents a related two-stage process, covering analyst and DM judgments. • The second stage relates to the DM's risk understanding. • Strength of knowledge judgments are included in both stages.

  13. Automatic breast cancer risk assessment from digital mammograms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karemore, Gopal Raghunath; Brandt, Sami; Karssemeijer, N

    Purpose: Textural characteristics of the breast tissue structure on mammogram have been shown to improve breast cancer risk assessment in several large studies. Currently, however, the texture is not used to assess risk in standard clinical procedures or involved in general breast cancer risk ass...

  14. Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.

    2000-01-01

    Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews

  15. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  16. Probabilistic risk assessment in the nuclear power industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fullwood, R.R.; Hall, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    This book describes the more important improvements in risk assessment methodology developed over the last decade. The book covers the following areas - a general view of risk pertaining to nuclear power, mathematics necessary to understand the text, a concise overview of the light water reactors and their features for protecting the public, probabilities and consequences calculated to form risk assessment to the plant, and 34 applications of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the power generation industry. There is a glossary of acronyms and unusual words and a list of references. (author)

  17. 78 FR 64428 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for Activities...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-29

    .... FDA-2013-N-1043] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for... entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Animal Food Combinations for Activities...(n) of the FD&C Act. II. Qualitative Risk Assessment As explained in the draft RA, we conducted the...

  18. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  19. Violence Risk Assessment Practices in Denmark: A Multidisciplinary National Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nielsen Louise Hjort

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With a quadrupling of forensic psychiatric patients in Denmark over the past 20 years, focus on violence risk assessment practices across the country has increased. However, information is lacking regarding Danish risk assessment practice across professional disciplines and clinical settings; little is known about how violence risk assessments are conducted, which instruments are used for what purposes, and how mental health professionals rate their utility and costs. As part of a global survey exploring the application of violence risk assessment across 44 countries, the current study investigated Danish practice across several professional disciplines and settings in which forensic and high-risk mental health patients are assessed and treated. In total, 125 mental health professionals across the country completed the survey. The five instruments that respondents reported most commonly using for risk assessment, risk management planning and risk monitoring were Broset, HCR-20, the START, the PCL-R, and the PCL:SV. Whereas the HCR-20 was rated highest in usefulness for risk assessment, the START was rated most useful for risk management and risk monitoring. No significant differences in utility were observed across professional groups. Unstructured clinical judgments were reported to be faster but more expensive to conduct than using a risk assessment instrument. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.

  20. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  1. Hormesis in Regulatory risk assessment - Science and Science Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, George

    2011-01-01

    This brief commentary will argue that whether hormesis is considered in regulatory risk assessment is a matter less of science than of science policy. I will first discuss the distinction between science and science policy and their roles in regulatory risk assessment. Then I will focus on factors that influence science policy, especially as it relates to the conduct of risk assessments to inform regulatory decisions, with a focus on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The key questions will then be how does hormesis interact with current concepts of science and science policy for risk assessment? Finally, I look ahead to factors that may increase, or decrease, the likelihood of hormesis being incorporated into regulatory risk assessment.

  2. 76 FR 37770 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-28

    ...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... available for public comment the Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our draft... plant pest risk assessment are also available on the APHIS Web site at: http://www.aphis.usda.gov/brs...

  3. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  4. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roger Skinner

    1992-01-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential

  5. Microbiological risk assessment and public health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skinner, Roger

    1992-07-01

    Despite the advances made in risk assessment i the past twenty years, in areas as diverse as toxicology and offshore engineering, the risk assessment approach has made little impact on those addressing the microbiological aspects of public health. In this paper the advances which have been made are discussed and the difficulties preventing the wider application of microbiological risk assessment (MRA) to public health are considered. The term microbiological risk is used here to mean the probability of contracting a disease caused by a microorganism. I intend to demonstrate that the dynamic nature of microorganisms and the unique nature of the relationship between a pathogen (a microorganism which causes disease) and its host create special challenges for those involved in MRA. Although these problems are difficult they are not intractable. Indeed in some cases partial solutions have already been found and applied. It is hoped that this paper will help stimulate further thought and consideration in a variety of disciplines so that these challenges can be met, thereby allowing MRA to fulfil its potential.

  6. On the use of conservatism in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    It is common to use conservatism in risk assessments, replacing uncertain quantities with values that lead to a higher level of risk. It is argued that the approach represents a practical method for dealing with uncertainties and lack of knowledge in risk assessment. If the computed probabilities meet the pre-defined criteria with the conservative quantities, there is strong support for the “real risk” to meet these criteria. In this paper we look more closely into this practice, the main aims being to clarify what it actually means and what the implications are, as well as providing some recommendations. The paper concludes that conservatism should be avoided in risk assessments – “best judgements” should be the ruling thinking, to allow for meaningful comparisons of options. By incorporating sensitivity analyses and strength of knowledge judgements for the background knowledge on which the assigned probabilities are based, the robustness of the conclusions can be more adequately assessed. - Highlights: • The paper clarifies the meaning of conservatism in risk assessments. • It is shown that a conservative policy has severe shortcomings. • It is concluded that conservatism should be avoided in risk assessments. • “Best judgements” should be the ruling thinking. • Sensitivity analyses and strength of knowledge judgements are required.

  7. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  8. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  9. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  10. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  11. Do pressure ulcer risk assessment scales improve clinical practice?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Kottner

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Jan Kottner1, Katrin Balzer21Department of Nursing Science, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany; 2Nursing Research Group, Institute for Social Medicine, Universitätsklinikum Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, GermanyAbstract: Standardized assessment instruments are deemed important for estimating pressure ulcer risk. Today, more than 40 so-called pressure ulcer risk assessment scales are available but still there is an ongoing debate about their usefulness. From a measurement point of view pressure ulcer (PU risk assessment scales have serious limitations. Empirical evidence supporting the validity of PU risk assessment scale scores is weak and obtained scores contain varying amounts of measurement error. The concept of pressure ulcer risk is strongly related to the general health status and severity of illness. A clinical impact due do the application of these scales could also not be demonstrated. It is questionable whether completion of standardized pressure ulcer risk scales in clinical practice is really needed.Keywords: Braden pressure ulcer, prevention, risk assessment, nursing assessment, predictive value, clinical effectiveness, review

  12. Nuclear energy and the new era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sefidvash, F.

    1992-01-01

    The problem of the utilization of nuclear energy is not only technical but also has important social, economic, political and ethical ramifications. Therefore, to discuss nuclear energy for the future, a vision of the new era needs to be identified. A model for the new era, as a natural consequence of growing interdependence among nations and the process of human evolution is described. The problems of inherent and passive safety, waste disposal, ecology, proliferation, economy and regulatory institutions in the new era are discussed. The particular role of small nuclear power reactors and their potential advantages are described. (author). 12 refs

  13. Coupling mode-destination accessibility with seismic risk assessment to identify at-risk communities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Mahalia; Baker, Jack W.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a framework for coupling mode-destination accessibility with quantitative seismic risk assessment to identify communities at high risk for travel disruptions after an earthquake. Mode-destination accessibility measures the ability of people to reach destinations they desire. We use a probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure, including a stochastic set of earthquake events, ground-motion intensity maps, damage maps, and realizations of traffic and accessibility impacts. For a case study of the San Francisco Bay Area, we couple our seismic risk framework with a practical activity-based traffic model. As a result, we quantify accessibility risk probabilistically by community and household type. We find that accessibility varies more strongly as a function of travelers' geographic location than as a function of their income class, and we identify particularly at-risk communities. We also observe that communities more conducive to local trips by foot or bike are predicted to be less impacted by losses in accessibility. This work shows the potential to link quantitative risk assessment methodologies with high-resolution travel models used by transportation planners. Quantitative risk metrics of this type should have great utility for planners working to reduce risk to a region's infrastructure systems. - Highlights: • We couple mode-destination accessibility with probabilistic seismic risk assessment. • Results identify communities at high risk for post-earthquake travel disruptions. • Accessibility varies more as a function of home location than by income. • Our model predicts reduced accessibility risk for more walking-friendly communities.

  14. Development of a system utilizing data of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagasaka, Akihiko; Takano, Kenichi; Ebisu, Mitsuhiro; Aikawa, Tadashi; Hayase, Kenichi

    2004-01-01

    This report deals with a concrete method of utilizing data of risk assessment. First, the authors point out the necessity to assess all stages of jobs (planning, meeting with contractors, performing phase of task, etc.) in risk assessment bout jobs in electric power company, because most jobs are performed by contract system and risks of a job are distributed over electric company, contractors and subcontractors. Secondly, risks estimated from past accidents and near-miss events must be included. If these 2 requirements are fulfilled, data of risk assessment can be more useful. Then below 4 forms of present data of risk assessment were developed. A form to be used in job planning stage in electric companies for efficient investment planning in safety measures. A form to be used in meetings between electric companies and contractors for checking accident prevention methods. A form to be used in meetings between contractors and subcontractors for enhancing a shared awareness of risk. A form to be used in tool box meetings for confirming safe condition and inheriting of ability of risk perception. Additionally, a data base system of risk assessment about 4 jobs was developed. This system prints out about 4 forms for each job and is useful for PDCA of safety activities. (author)

  15. Probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant regulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wall, J B

    1980-09-01

    A specific program is recommended to utilize more effectively probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant regulation. It is based upon the engineering insights from the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) and some follow-on risk assessment research by USNRC. The Three Mile Island accident is briefly discussed from a risk viewpoint to illustrate a weakness in current practice. The development of a probabilistic safety goal is recommended with some suggestions on underlying principles. Some ongoing work on risk perception and the draft probabilistic safety goal being reviewed on Canada is described. Some suggestions are offered on further risk assessment research. Finally, some recent U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission actions are described.

  16. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  17. Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). System Analytics; Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Gleason, Nathaniel J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Imbro, Dennis Raymond [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis; Sumner, Matthew C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States). Systems Research and Analysis

    2013-10-01

    The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

  18. Microbiological risk assessment for personal care products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S E; Parker, M D; Amézquita, A; Pitt, T L

    2016-12-01

    Regulatory decisions regarding microbiological safety of cosmetics and personal care products are primarily hazard-based, where the presence of a potential pathogen determines decision-making. This contrasts with the Food industry where it is a commonplace to use a risk-based approach for ensuring microbiological safety. A risk-based approach allows consideration of the degree of exposure to assess unacceptable health risks. As there can be a number of advantages in using a risk-based approach to safety, this study explores the Codex Alimentarius (Codex) four-step Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) framework frequently used in the Food industry and examines how it can be applied to the safety assessment of personal care products. The hazard identification and hazard characterization steps (one and two) of the Codex MRA framework consider the main microorganisms of concern. These are addressed by reviewing the current industry guidelines for objectionable organisms and analysing reports of contaminated products notified by government agencies over a recent 5-year period, together with examples of reported outbreaks. Data related to estimation of exposure (step three) are discussed, and examples of possible calculations and references are included. The fourth step, performed by the risk assessor (risk characterization), is specific to each assessment and brings together the information from the first three steps to assess the risk. Although there are very few documented uses of the MRA approach for personal care products, this study illustrates that it is a practicable and sound approach for producing products that are safe by design. It can be helpful in the context of designing products and processes going to market and with setting of microbiological specifications. Additionally, it can be applied reactively to facilitate decision-making when contaminated products are released on to the marketplace. Currently, the knowledge available may only allow a

  19. Assessing Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steen, Lynn Arthur

    Assessment not only places value, it also identifies which elements to value. In this era of accountability, the constituents of educational assessment are not just students, faculty, and administrators, but also parents, legislators, journalists, and the public. For these broader audiences, simple numerical indicators of student performance take…

  20. METODE MUHADDITSIN DI ERA MODERN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriansyah Adriansyah

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available After the era of tadwin, almost all disciplines of knowledge in the Islamic world, including the study of hadith, was considered “running on the spot.” Yet, attention and maintenance of the hadith was still favored by intellectuals. Similarly, in the modern era, the hadith remains the object of criticism by not only Muslim intellectuals but also outsiders, such as the West. Western imperialism against the Islamic world in the past was now the beginning of the history of how Muslims are only able to “survive” rather than “attack.” The emergence of defensive and reactive works against trends of the West in criticizing and blasphemed the hadith, then, such works became trends and supporting methodologies among Muslim observers of the hadith in today’s modern era

  1. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: a discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire TG; Stevenson H; Pieters MN; Rennen M; Slob W; Hakkert BC; Nederlandse organisatie voor; CSR; LEO; TNO-ITV

    1998-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute towards further harmonisation of the human health risk assessment. It discusses the development of a formal, harmonised set of default assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed. Options are presented

  2. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  3. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Ajay; Hutter, Inge

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from broader cultural meaning systems to rationalize uncertainty. In this study, we identify some of the cultural heuristics used by migrant men in Goa, India to assess their risk of HIV infection from different sexual partners. Data derives from a series of in-depth interviews and a locally informed survey. Cultural heuristics identified include visual heuristics, heuristics of gender roles, vigilance and trust. The paper argues that, for more culturally informed HIV/AIDS behaviour change interventions, knowledge of cultural heuristics is essential.

  4. Guidance on the environmental risk assessment of plant pests

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baker, R.; Candresse, T.; Dormannsne Simon, E.

    2011-01-01

    The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) requested the Panel on Plant Health to develop a methodology for assessing the environmental risks posed by harmful organisms that may enter, establish and spread in the European Union. To do so, the Panel first reviewed the methods for assessing...... the environmental risks of plant pests that have previously been used in pest risk assessment. The limitations identified by the review led the Panel to define the new methodology for environmental risk assessment which is described in this guidance document. The guidance is primarily addressed to the EFSA PLH...... (biodiversity) and the functional (ecosystem services) aspects of the environment, this new approach includes methods for assessing both aspects for the first time in a pest risk assessment scheme. A list of questions has been developed for the assessor to evaluate the consequences for structural biodiversity...

  5. US EPA's Ecological Risk Assessment Support Center ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    BackgroundThe ERASC provides technical information and addresses scientific questions of concern or interest on topics relevant to ecological risk assessment at hazardous waste sites for EPA's Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response (OSWER) personnel and the Office of Resource Conservation and Recovery (ORCR) staff. Requests are channeled to ERASC through the Ecological Risk Assessment Forum (ERAF). To assess emerging and complex scientific issues that require expert judgment, the ERASC relies on the expertise of scientists and engineers located throughout EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD) labs and centers.ResponseERASC develops responses that reflect the state of the science for ecological risk assessment and also provides a communication point for the distribution of the responses to other interested parties. For further information, contact Ecology_ERASC@epa.gov or call 513-569-7940.

  6. Safety culture' is integrating 'human' into risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, Taiji

    2014-01-01

    Significance of Fukushima nuclear power accident requested reconsideration of safety standards, of which we had usually no doubt. Risk assessment standard (JIS B 9702), Which was used for repetition of database preparation and cumulative assessment, defined allowable risk and residual risk. However, work site and immediate assessment was indispensable beside such assessment so as to ensure safety. Risk of casualties was absolutely not acceptable in principle and judgments to approve allowable risk needed accountability, which was reminded by safety culture proposed by IAEA and also identified by investigation of organizational cause of Columbia accident. Actor of safety culture would be organization and individual, and mainly individual. Realization of safety culture was conducted by personnel having moral consciousness and firm sense of mission in the course of jobs and working daily with sweat pouring. Safety engineering/technology should have framework integrating human as such totality. (T. Tanaka)

  7. Evaluating the Risk of Child Abuse: The Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Ko Ling

    2012-01-01

    The present study developed the Child Abuse Risk Assessment Scale (CARAS), an actuarial instrument for the assessment of the risk of physical child abuse. Data of 2,363 Chinese parents (47.7% male) living in Hong Kong were used in the analyses. Participants were individually interviewed with a questionnaire assessing their perpetration of child…

  8. The use of quantitative risk assessment in HACCP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoornstra, E.; Northolt, M.D.; Notermans, S.; Barendsz, A.W.

    2001-01-01

    During the hazard analysis as part of the development of a HACCP-system, first the hazards (contaminants) have to be identified and then the risks have to be assessed. Often, this assessment is restricted to a qualitative analysis. By using elements of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) the hazard

  9. Laboratory Biosafety and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Technical Guidance Document

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Astuto-Gribble, Lisa M; Caskey, Susan Adele

    2014-07-01

    The purpose of this document is threefold: 1) to describe the laboratory bio safety and biosecurity risk assessment process and its conceptual framework; 2) provide detailed guidance and suggested methodologies on how to conduct a risk assessment; and 3) present some practical risk assessment process strategies using realistic laboratory scenarios.

  10. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  11. Risk and dose assessment methods in gamma knife QA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, W.W.; Jones, E.D.; Rathbun, P.

    1992-10-01

    Traditional methods used in assessing risk in nuclear power plants may be inappropriate to use in assessing medical radiation risks. The typical philosophy used in assessing nuclear reactor risks is machine dominated with only secondary attention paid to the human component, and only after critical machine failure events have been identified. In assessing the risk of a misadministrative radiation dose to patients, the primary source of failures seems to stem overwhelmingly, from the actions of people and only secondarily from machine mode failures. In essence, certain medical misadministrations are dominated by human events not machine failures. Radiological medical devices such as the Leksell Gamma Knife are very simple in design, have few moving parts, and are relatively free from the risks of wear when compared with a nuclear power plant. Since there are major technical differences between a gamma knife and a nuclear power plant, one must select a particular risk assessment method which is sensitive to these system differences and tailored to the unique medical aspects of the phenomena under study. These differences also generate major shifts in the philosophy and assumptions which drive the risk assessment (Machine-centered vs Person-centered) method. We were prompted by these basic differences to develop a person-centered approach to risk assessment which would reflect these basic philosophical and technological differences, have the necessary resolution in its metrics, and be highly reliable (repeatable). The risk approach chosen by the Livermore investigative team has been called the ''Relative Risk Profile Method'' and has been described in detail by Banks and Paramore, (1983)

  12. Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, G.; Yaqin, Q.; Qiong, L.; Cunwen, N.; Na, W.; Jiajia, L.; Jongde, G.; Na, Z.; Xiangyi, D.

    2014-09-01

    Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

  13. Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Hong

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs. The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

  14. [Precision nutrition in the era of precision medicine].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, P Z; Wang, H

    2016-12-06

    Precision medicine has been increasingly incorporated into clinical practice and is enabling a new era for disease prevention and treatment. As an important constituent of precision medicine, precision nutrition has also been drawing more attention during physical examinations. The main aim of precision nutrition is to provide safe and efficient intervention methods for disease treatment and management, through fully considering the genetics, lifestyle (dietary, exercise and lifestyle choices), metabolic status, gut microbiota and physiological status (nutrient level and disease status) of individuals. Three major components should be considered in precision nutrition, including individual criteria for sufficient nutritional status, biomarker monitoring or techniques for nutrient detection and the applicable therapeutic or intervention methods. It was suggested that, in clinical practice, many inherited and chronic metabolic diseases might be prevented or managed through precision nutritional intervention. For generally healthy populations, because lifestyles, dietary factors, genetic factors and environmental exposures vary among individuals, precision nutrition is warranted to improve their physical activity and reduce disease risks. In summary, research and practice is leading toward precision nutrition becoming an integral constituent of clinical nutrition and disease prevention in the era of precision medicine.

  15. A comparison of radiological risk assessment models: Risk assessment models used by the BEIR V Committee, UNSCEAR, ICRP, and EPA (for NESHAP)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wahl, L.E.

    1994-03-01

    Radiological risk assessments and resulting risk estimates have been developed by numerous national and international organizations, including the National Research Council's fifth Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations (BEIR V), the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR), and the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). A fourth organization, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), has also performed a risk assessment as a basis for the National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP). This paper compares the EPA's model of risk assessment with the models used by the BEIR V Committee, UNSCEAR, and ICRP. Comparison is made of the values chosen by each organization for several model parameters: populations used in studies and population transfer coefficients, dose-response curves and dose-rate effects, risk projection methods, and risk estimates. This comparison suggests that the EPA has based its risk assessment on outdated information and that the organization should consider adopting the method used by the BEIR V Committee, UNSCEAR, or ICRP

  16. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of

  17. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  18. Applying Multi-Criteria Analysis Methods for Fire Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pushkina Julia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to prove the application of multi-criteria analysis methods for optimisation of fire risk identification and assessment process. The object of this research is fire risk and risk assessment. The subject of the research is studying the application of analytic hierarchy process for modelling and influence assessment of various fire risk factors. Results of research conducted by the authors can be used by insurance companies to perform the detailed assessment of fire risks on the object and to calculate a risk extra charge to an insurance premium; by the state supervisory institutions to determine the compliance of a condition of object with requirements of regulations; by real state owners and investors to carry out actions for decrease in degree of fire risks and minimisation of possible losses.

  19. III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

    2017-06-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Paul S.

    2002-01-01

    Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

  1. Recommended Capacities for Educational Leadership: Pre-Reform Era Scholars versus Reform-Era Scholars versus National Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Stephen P.; Taylor-Backor, Karen; Croteau, Susan

    2017-01-01

    We reviewed the scholarship on capacities for educational leadership for the past decade of the pre-reform era (1976-1985), as well as a recent decade of the reform era (2005-2015), and compared scholarship from both decades with the current Professional Standards for Educational Leaders. We found that scholars in the past decade of the pre-reform…

  2. [Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dejun; Fu, Xiaokuan; Kong, Fanling; Sui, Shaofeng; Jiang, Yuanyuan; Du, Yinglin; Zhou, Jingyang

    2014-06-01

    Risk assessment and risk control for occupational exposure to chemical toxicants were performed on an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons, based on improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, with consideration of actual situation in China and in the present project. With the use of engineering analysis and identification of occupational hazards in the improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method, hazard rating (HR) and risk assessment were performed on chemical toxicants from an isophorone nitrile device with an annual production of 5,000 tons. The chemical toxicants in the isophorone nitrile device were mainly isophorone, hydrocyanic acid, methanol, phosphoric acid, sodium hydroxide, and sodium cyanide; the HR values were mild hazard (2), extreme hazard (5), mild hazard (2), mild hazard (2), moderate hazard (3), and extreme hazard (5), respectively, and the corresponding exposure rating (ER) values were 2.09, 2.72, 2.76, 1.68, 2.0, and 1.59, respectively. The risk of chemical toxicants in this project was assessed according to the formula Risk = [HR×ER](1/2). Hydrocyanic acid was determined as high risk, sodium hydroxide and sodium cyanide as medium risk, and isophorone, methanol, and phosphoric acid as low risk. Priority in handling of risks was determined by risk rating. The table of risk control measure was established for pre-assessment of occupational hazards. With risk assessment in this study, we concluded that the isophorone nitrile device with 5,000 ton annual production was a high-occupational hazard device. This device is a project of extreme occupational hazard. The improved Singaporean semi-quantitative risk assessment method is a scientific and applicable method, and is especially suitable for pre-evaluation of on-site project with no analogy.

  3. Preventive risk assessment in forensic child and youth care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assink, M.

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessment is central to the work of forensic mental health professionals, since it serves as a guide for prevention and intervention strategies. For effective risk assessment, knowledge on risk factors and their effects as well as the availability of valid and reliable instruments for risk

  4. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  5. External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Powell, Troy C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Two risk assessment algorithms and philosophies have been augmented and combined to form a new algorit hm, the External Threat Risk Assessment Algorithm (ExTRAA), that allows for effective and statistically sound analysis of external threat sources in relation to individual attack methods . In addition to the attack method use probability and the attack method employment consequence, t he concept of defining threat sources is added to the risk assessment process. Sample data is tabulated and depicted in radar plots and bar graphs for algorithm demonstration purposes. The largest success of ExTRAA is its ability to visualize the kind of r isk posed in a given situation using the radar plot method.

  6. Systematic Suicide Risk Assessment for Patients With Schizophrenia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Charlotte Gjørup; Wallenstein Jensen, Signe Olrik; Gradus, Jaimie

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: Systematic suicide risk assessment is recommended for patients with schizophrenia; however, little is known about the implementation of suicide risk assessment in routine clinical practice. The study aimed to determine the use of systematic suicide risk assessment at discharge...... and predictors of suicide attempt among hospitalized patients with schizophrenia in Denmark. Methods: A one-year follow-up study was conducted of 9,745 patients with schizophrenia who were discharged from psychiatric wards and registered in a national population-based schizophrenia registry between 2005 and 2009....... Results: The proportion of patients receiving suicide risk assessment at discharge from a psychiatric ward increased from 72% (95% confidence interval [CI]=71%-74%) in 2005, when the national monitoring began, to 89% (CI.89%-90%) in 2009. Within one year after discharge, 1% of all registered patients had...

  7. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxiao Ji

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1 formulation of risk assessment hierarchy; (2 representation of both qualitative and quantitative information; (3 elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities; (4 aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5 quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.

  8. Arrhythmias and sudden death among older children and young adults following tetralogy of Fallot repair in the current era: are previously reported risk factors still applicable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arya, Swati; Kovach, Julie; Singh, Harinder; Karpawich, Peter P

    2014-01-01

    Young adult patients (pts) with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) remain at risk for arrhythmias (Ar) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). Based on past studies with earlier pt subsets, Ar/SCD events were associated with right ventricular (RV) systolic pressures >60 mm Hg, outflow tract gradients >20 mm Hg, and QRS duration >180 ms. However, there are limited recent studies to evaluate these risk factors in the current patient generation. Patients with TOF followed over the past 50 years were grouped by presence of any arrhythmias (group 1), absence of arrhythmias (group 2), and presence of SCD or significant ventricular arrhythmias (group 3) and correlated with current pt age, gender, age at repair, repair types, echocardiogram, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, electrocardiogram/Holter, hemodynamics, and electrophysiology findings. Of 109 pts, 52 were male aged 17-58 years. Of these, 59 (54%) had Ar, two of whom had SCD. These 59 pts were chronologically older at the time of analysis, with repair at an older age and wider QRS duration (78-240, mean 158 ms) when compared with those without Ar. However, there was no correlation with surgical era, surgical repair, gender, RV pressure >60 mm Hg, right ventricular outflow tract gradient >20 mm Hg, or RV end-diastolic volume on CMRI. Ar/SCD risk continues to correlate with repair age and advancing pt age. QRS duration is longer in these patients but at a shorter interval (mean 158 ms) and less RV pressure (mean 43 mm Hg) than previously reported. In the current TOF patient generation, neither surgical era, type of repair, RV outflow gradient nor RV volume correlate with Ar/SCD. Electrophysiologic testing to verify and identify arrhythmias remains clinically effective. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Development of Integrated Assessment Technology of Risk and Performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jun Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2010-04-01

    The main idea and contents are summarized as below 1) Development of new risk/performance assessment system innovating old labor-intensive risk assessment structure - New consolidated risk assessment technology from various hazard(flood, fire, seismic in NPP) - BOP model development for performance monitoring - Consolidated risk/performance management system for consistency and efficiency of NPP 2) Resolution technology for pending issues in PSA - Base technology for PSA of digital I and C system - Base technology for seismic PSA reflecting domestic seismic characteristics and aging effect - Uncertainty reduction technology for level 2 PSA and best estimation of containment failure frequency 3) Next generation risk/performance assessment technology - Human-induced error reduction technology for efficient operation of a NPP

  10. Risk assessment for federal regulatory decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payne, John H.; Medley, Terry L.

    1992-01-01

    This article discusses: 1. Purposes and history of risk assessment: application to biotechnology; 2. Framework in the United States for decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology; 3. Choosing from among potential approaches to assessment: a). exposure assessment does not equate to risk assessment: what are the hazards?; b). Setting risk assessment priorities; c). 'Quantitative' environmental and 'quantitative' ecological risk assessments; d). Ecological risk assessments based on biological and ecological principles. 4. The bases for good regulatory decisions

  11. Risk assessment for federal regulatory decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, John H; Medley, Terry L [Biotechnology, Biologics and Environmental Protection Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Hyattsville, MD (United States)

    1992-07-01

    This article discusses: 1. Purposes and history of risk assessment: application to biotechnology; 2. Framework in the United States for decisions on organisms produced through biotechnology; 3. Choosing from among potential approaches to assessment: a). exposure assessment does not equate to risk assessment: what are the hazards?; b). Setting risk assessment priorities; c). 'Quantitative' environmental and 'quantitative' ecological risk assessments; d). Ecological risk assessments based on biological and ecological principles. 4. The bases for good regulatory decisions.

  12. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  13. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  14. Assessment and management of suicide risk in primary care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saini, Pooja; While, David; Chantler, Khatidja; Windfuhr, Kirsten; Kapur, Navneet

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment and management of suicidal patients is emphasized as a key component of care in specialist mental health services, but these issues are relatively unexplored in primary care services. To examine risk assessment and management in primary and secondary care in a clinical sample of individuals who were in contact with mental health services and died by suicide. Data collection from clinical proformas, case records, and semistructured face-to-face interviews with general practitioners. Primary and secondary care data were available for 198 of the 336 cases (59%). The overall agreement in the rating of risk between services was poor (overall κ = .127, p = .10). Depression, care setting (after discharge), suicidal ideation at last contact, and a history of self-harm were associated with a rating of higher risk. Suicide prevention policies were available in 25% of primary care practices, and 33% of staff received training in suicide risk assessments. Risk is difficult to predict, but the variation in risk assessment between professional groups may reflect poor communication. Further research is required to understand this. There appears to be a relative lack of suicide risk assessment training in primary care.

  15. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  16. Ecological models and pesticide risk assessment: current modeling practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; Chapman, Peter; Grimm, Volker

    2010-04-01

    Ecological risk assessments of pesticides usually focus on risk at the level of individuals, and are carried out by comparing exposure and toxicological endpoints. However, in most cases the protection goal is populations rather than individuals. On the population level, effects of pesticides depend not only on exposure and toxicity, but also on factors such as life history characteristics, population structure, timing of application, presence of refuges in time and space, and landscape structure. Ecological models can integrate such factors and have the potential to become important tools for the prediction of population-level effects of exposure to pesticides, thus allowing extrapolations, for example, from laboratory to field. Indeed, a broad range of ecological models have been applied to chemical risk assessment in the scientific literature, but so far such models have only rarely been used to support regulatory risk assessments of pesticides. To better understand the reasons for this situation, the current modeling practice in this field was assessed in the present study. The scientific literature was searched for relevant models and assessed according to nine characteristics: model type, model complexity, toxicity measure, exposure pattern, other factors, taxonomic group, risk assessment endpoint, parameterization, and model evaluation. The present study found that, although most models were of a high scientific standard, many of them would need modification before they are suitable for regulatory risk assessments. The main shortcomings of currently available models in the context of regulatory pesticide risk assessments were identified. When ecological models are applied to regulatory risk assessments, we recommend reviewing these models according to the nine characteristics evaluated here. (c) 2010 SETAC.

  17. Risk Assessment and Risk Management in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities: Are We There Yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge

    2015-01-01

    Research on risk assessment and risk management in offenders with intellectual disabilities (OIDs), although far behind compared to the mainstream offender literature, is now expanding. The current review provides an overview of the predictive value of risk assessment and treatment outcome monitoring tools developed for both mainstream forensic…

  18. Managing industrial risk--having a tested and proven system to prevent and assess risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, Stephen

    2006-03-17

    Some relatively easy techniques exist to improve the risk picture/profile to aid in preventing losses. Today with the advent of computer system resources, focusing on specific aspects of risk through systematic scoring and comparison, the risk analysis can be relatively easy to achieve. Techniques like these demonstrate how working experience and common sense can be combined mathematically into a flexible risk management tool or risk model for analyzing risk. The risk assessment methodology provided by companies today is no longer the ideas and practices of one group or even one company. It is reflective of the practice of many companies, as well as the ideas and expertise of academia and government regulators. The use of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for making critical decisions has been recognized for many years for a variety of purposes. In today's computer age, the easy accessing and user-friendly nature for using these techniques, makes them a favorable choice for use in the risk assessment environment. The new user of these methodologies should find many ideas directly applicable to his or her needs when approaching risk decision making. The user should find their ideas readily adapted, with slight modification, to accurately reflect a specific situation using MCDM techniques. This makes them an attractive feature for use in assessment and risk modeling. The main advantage of decision making techniques, such as MCDM, is that in the early stages of a risk assessment, accurate data on industrial risk, and failures are lacking. In most cases, it is still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts. The practical advantages towards deviating from strict data-driven protocol seem to outweigh the drawbacks. Industry failure data often comes at a high cost when a loss occurs. We can benefit from this unfortunate acquisition of data through the continuous refining of our decisions by incorporating this new

  19. Sources of Evidence-of-Learning: Learning and Assessment in the Era of Big Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cope, Bill; Kalantzis, Mary

    2015-01-01

    This article sets out to explore a shift in the sources of evidence-of-learning in the era of networked computing. One of the key features of recent developments has been popularly characterized as "big data". We begin by examining, in general terms, the frame of reference of contemporary debates on machine intelligence and the role of…

  20. Review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Davis, P.R.; Satterwhite, D.G.; Gilmore, W.E.; Gregg, R.E.

    1989-11-01

    A review of the Brunswick Steam Electric Plant probabilistic risk Assessment was conducted with the objective of confirming the safety perspectives brought to light by the probabilistic risk assessment. The scope of the review included the entire Level I probabilistic risk assessment including external events. This is consistent with the scope of the probabilistic risk assessment. The review included an assessment of the assumptions, methods, models, and data used in the study. 47 refs., 14 figs., 15 tabs

  1. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  2. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  3. Ethical aspects of the assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    When technology assessment goes over into technology politics, then questions arise which can only be answered in an ethical way. Questions like, which risk strategy has to be the basis for decision-making, and is a decision for or against the development, introduction or maintenance of a certain technology to be based at all on risk assessments? The author considers pure consequentialistic ethics the most plausible option, and does not see a basic difference in a risk-benefit analysis and ethical technology assessment. (DG) [de

  4. Assessing risk from intelligent attacks: A perspective on approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guikema, Seth D.; Aven, Terje

    2010-01-01

    Assessing the uncertainties in and severity of the consequences of intelligent attacks are fundamentally different from risk assessment for accidental events and other phenomena with inherently random failures. Intelligent attacks against a system involve adaptation on the part of the adversary. The probabilities of the initiating events depend on the risk management actions taken, and they may be more difficult to assess due to high degrees of epistemic uncertainty about the motivations and future actions of adversaries. Several fundamentally different frameworks have been proposed for assessing risk from intelligent attacks. These include basing risk assessment and management on game theoretic modelling of attacker actions, using a probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) approach based on eliciting probabilities of different initiating events from appropriate experts, assessing uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values, and ignoring the probabilities of the attacks and choosing to protect highest valued targets. In this paper we discuss and compare the fundamental assumptions that underlie each of these approaches. We then suggest a new framework that makes the fundamental assumptions underlying the approaches clear to decision makers and presents them with a suite of results from conditional risk analysis methods. Each of the conditional methods presents the risk from a specified set of fundamental assumptions, allowing the decision maker to see the impacts of these assumptions on the risk management strategies considered and to weight the different conditional results with their assessments of the relative likelihood of the different sets of assumptions.

  5. Innovative human health and ecological risk assessment techniques at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clarke, S.; Jones, K.; Goller, E.

    1993-01-01

    The open-quotes Hanford Site Baseline Risk Assessment Methodologyclose quotes (HSBRAM) was developed to enhance the preparation of risk assessments supporting the Hanford site cleanup mission. This methodology satisfies a Hanford federal facility agreement and consent order (tri-party agreement) milestone and is used to evaluate the risk to human health and the environment under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). The methodology was prepared by the Hanford Risk Assessment Committee (RAC) consisting of tri-party representatives: the U.S. Department of Energy, the State of Washington Department of Ecology, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), with associated contractors. The risk assessment guidance provided by EPA is sufficiently general to permit tailoring of specific parameters to meet the risk assessment needs of individual sites. The RAC utilized EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund, (RAGS) as the cornerstone of the HSBRAM. The RAC added necessary Hanford-specific elements to construct a complete risk assessment guidance for utilization as an independent document. The HSBRAM is a living document because the RAC charter emphasizes the importance of continued methodology reevaluation. The HSBRAM also provides guidelines for the application of EPA's open-quotes Framework for Ecological Risk Assessmentclose quotes to Hanford-specific environmental baseline risk assessments by including endangered and threatened species in addition to sensitive habitats potentially associated with the Hanford site and guidance for selection of ecotoxicological data. Separate negotiations for the selection of risk parameters for each operable unit were avoided by defining parameters in the HSBRAM. There are 78 past-practice operable units at Hanford requiring risk assessments

  6. DETERMINANTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS IN CRITICAL ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Przemysław Borkowski

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Article deals with the problem of risk assessment in critical energy infrastructure. Firstly the critical infrastructure in energy sector is discussed than risk identification methodology for application to critical infrastructure is proposed. Specific conditions resulting from features of critical infrastructure are addressed in the context of risk assessment procedure. The limits of such a procedure are outlined and critical factors influencing different stages of risk assessment process are researched in view of specificity of the sector.

  7. THE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ERP-SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Oladko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

  8. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  9. 75 FR 70365 - Agency Information Collection (Follow-Up Study of a National Cohort of Gulf War and Gulf Era...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-17

    ... (Follow-Up Study of a National Cohort of Gulf War and Gulf Era Veterans) Activity Under OMB Review AGENCY...).'' SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Titles: Follow-Up Study of a National Cohort of Gulf War and Gulf Era Veterans, VA..., will help VA to assess the health of Gulf War veterans who were exposed to a variety of environmental...

  10. Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heikkeroe, Topi [Univ. of Helsinki (Finland). Centre for Social Ethics

    2006-09-15

    This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology.

  11. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  12. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  13. Storm-Tracks in ERA-40 and ERA-Interim Reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, M. L. R.; Trigo, I. F.; Trigo, R. M.

    2009-04-01

    Extratropical cyclones, their dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of cyclone characteristics for the Euro-Atlantic sector (85°W-70°E; 20°N-75°N) presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al., 1999, 2002) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo, 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows (Trigo et al. 1999), is applied to 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000-hPa from two reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Two storm-track databases are built over the Northern Atlantic European area, spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1989 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions (T106 and T255, respectively). This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclone formation and dissipation and main cyclone characteristics for the Euro-Atlantic sector. Trigo, I. F., T. D. Davies, and G. R. Bigg, 1999: Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region. J. Climate, 12, 1685-1696. Trigo I. F., G. R. Bigg and T. D. Davies, 2002: Climatology of Cyclogenesis Mechanisms in the Mediterranean. Mon. Weather Rev. 130, 549-569. Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0065-9.

  14. The use of comparative risk assessment in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chicken, J.C.; Hayns, M.R.; Tolley, B.

    1989-01-01

    This paper justifies: 1) Comparative risk assessment provides a way of establishing whether or not the risks associated with a novel proposal are likely to satisfy current norms. 2) Comparative risk assessment is an aid to decision making when for some reason there is inadequate quantitative data about the risks associated with a project. 3) One problem is that there is no single universally acceptable norm. Norms vary both with time and from activity to activity. The spread of acceptable norms spans at least two orders of magnitude. 4) For any comparative risk assessment to be considered more than a suggestion on how acceptable a risk is, the risks that are compared must be similar and located in similar cultural and geographical environments. 5) Ulitmately justification of the acceptability of a project must be based on data generated directly by the project itself and any opinion based on comparative evidence must be iteratively revised as direct hard evidence becomes available. 6) Comparative risk assessment has a useful role in presentations to the lay public about the acceptability of a particular risk. 7) There may be more problems in making a comparative assessment of risk acceptability in socio-political terms than in technical or economic terms. The central requirement that the comparison must be based on data from similar cultural backgrounds is often hard to satisfy in relation to socio-political considerations

  15. Breast cancer screening in an era of personalized regimens: a conceptual model and National Cancer Institute initiative for risk-based and preference-based approaches at a population level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onega, Tracy; Beaber, Elisabeth F; Sprague, Brian L; Barlow, William E; Haas, Jennifer S; Tosteson, Anna N A; D Schnall, Mitchell; Armstrong, Katrina; Schapira, Marilyn M; Geller, Berta; Weaver, Donald L; Conant, Emily F

    2014-10-01

    Breast cancer screening holds a prominent place in public health, health care delivery, policy, and women's health care decisions. Several factors are driving shifts in how population-based breast cancer screening is approached, including advanced imaging technologies, health system performance measures, health care reform, concern for "overdiagnosis," and improved understanding of risk. Maximizing benefits while minimizing the harms of screening requires moving from a "1-size-fits-all" guideline paradigm to more personalized strategies. A refined conceptual model for breast cancer screening is needed to align women's risks and preferences with screening regimens. A conceptual model of personalized breast cancer screening is presented herein that emphasizes key domains and transitions throughout the screening process, as well as multilevel perspectives. The key domains of screening awareness, detection, diagnosis, and treatment and survivorship are conceptualized to function at the level of the patient, provider, facility, health care system, and population/policy arena. Personalized breast cancer screening can be assessed across these domains with both process and outcome measures. Identifying, evaluating, and monitoring process measures in screening is a focus of a National Cancer Institute initiative entitled PROSPR (Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens), which will provide generalizable evidence for a risk-based model of breast cancer screening, The model presented builds on prior breast cancer screening models and may serve to identify new measures to optimize benefits-to-harms tradeoffs in population-based screening, which is a timely goal in the era of health care reform. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

  16. Assessing risk of draft survey by AHP method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guangcheng; Zhao, Kuimin; Zuo, Zhaoying; Liu, Gang; Jian, Binguo; Lin, Yan; Fan, Yukun; Wang, Fei

    2018-04-01

    The paper assesses the risks of vessel floating in the seawater for draft survey by using the analytic hierarchy process. On this basis, the paper established draft survey risk index from the view of draft reading, ballast water, fresh water, and calculation process and so on. Then the paper proposes the method to deal with risk assessment using one concrete sample.

  17. Safety analysis and risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, V.L.; Colwell, R.G.; Dickey, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    This Safety Analysis and Risk Assessment Handbook (SARAH) provides guidance to the safety analyst at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in the preparation of safety analyses and risk assessments. Although the older guidance (the Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide) continues to be used for updating the Final Safety Analysis Reports developed in the mid-1980s, this new guidance is used with all new authorization basis documents. With the mission change at RFETS came the need to establish new authorization basis documents for its facilities, whose functions had changed. The methodology and databases for performing the evaluations that support the new authorization basis documents had to be standardized, to avoid the use of different approaches and/or databases for similar accidents in different facilities. This handbook presents this new standardized approach. The handbook begins with a discussion of the requirements of the different types of authorization basis documents and how to choose the one appropriate for the facility to be evaluated. It then walks the analyst through the process of identifying all the potential hazards in the facility, classifying them, and choosing the ones that need to be analyzed further. It then discusses the methods for evaluating accident initiation and progression and covers the basic steps in a safety analysis, including consequence and frequency binning and risk ranking. The handbook lays out standardized approaches for determining the source terms of the various accidents (including airborne release fractions, leakpath factors, etc.), the atmospheric dispersion factors appropriate for Rocky Flats, and the methods for radiological and chemical consequence assessments. The radiological assessments use a radiological open-quotes templateclose quotes, a spreadsheet that incorporates the standard values of parameters, whereas the chemical assessments use the standard codes ARCHIE and ALOHA

  18. Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessments are often criticised for defending activities that could harm the environment and human health. The risk assessments produce numbers which are used to prove that the risk associated with the activity is acceptable. In this way, risk assessments seem to be a tool generally serving business. Government agencies have based their regulations on the use of risk assessment and the prevailing practise is supported by the regulations. In this paper, we look more closely into this critique. Are risk assessments being misused or are risk assessments simply not a suitable tool for guiding decision-making in the face of risks and uncertainties? Is the use of risk assessments not servicing public interests? We argue that risk assessments may provide useful decision support but the quality of the risk assessments and the associated risk assessment processes need to be improved. In this paper, three main improvement areas (success factors) are identified and discussed: (1) the scientific basis of the risk assessments needs to be strengthened, (2) the risk assessments need to provide a much broader risk picture than what is typically the case today. Separate uncertainty analyses should be carried out, extending the traditional probabilistic-based analyses and (3) the cautionary and precautionary principles need to be seen as rational risk management approaches, and their application would, to a large extent, be based on risk and uncertainty assessments.

  19. Failure data specialization in quantitative risk assessments of process plants; Especializacao de dados de falha em analise quantitativa de riscos de plantas de processo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribeiro, Antonio C.O. [Bayer S.A., Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Melo, P.F. Frutuoso e [Universidade Federal, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia

    2005-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to show the Bayesian inference in reliability studies, which are used to failures rates updating in safety analyses. It is developed the impact of its using in quantitative risks assessments for industrial process plants. With this approach we find a structured and auditable way of showing the difference between an industrial installation with a good project and maintenance structure from another one that shows a low level of quality in these areas. In general the evidence from failures rates and as follow the frequency of occurrence from scenarios, which the risks taken in account in ERA, are taken from generics data banks, instead of, the installation in analysis. When using the plant data we need special effort to develop a data bank, that is, a maintenance managing system, which allows the data insertion as for example the SAP{sup R} and its PM module. (author)

  20. Bayesian Networks for enterprise risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafede, C. E.; Giudici, P.

    2007-08-01

    According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. Risk, in general, is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its consequence (impact). To estimate the frequency and the impact (severity) historical data or expert opinions (either qualitative or quantitative data) are used. Moreover, qualitative data must be converted in numerical values or bounds to be used in the model. In the case of enterprise risk assessment the considered risks are, for instance, strategic, operational, legal and of image, which many times are difficult to be quantified. So in most cases only expert data, gathered by scorecard approaches, are available for risk analysis. The Bayesian Networks (BNs) are a useful tool to integrate different information and in particular to study the risk's joint distribution by using data collected from experts. In this paper we want to show a possible approach for building a BN in the particular case in which only prior probabilities of node states and marginal correlations between nodes are available, and when the variables have only two states.

  1. Documentation design for probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, W.J.; von Herrmann, J.L.

    1985-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for documentation design of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and is based on the EPRI document NP-3470 ''Documentation Design for Probabilistic Risk Assessment''. The goals for PRA documentation are stated. Four audiences are identified which PRA documentation must satisfy, and the documentation consistent with the needs of the various audiences are discussed, i.e., the Summary Report, the Executive Summary, the Main Report, and Appendices. The authors recommend the documentation specifications discussed herein as guides rather than rigid definitions

  2. Risk assessment, session 1-4. International conference 1992. Part 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1992-07-01

    The international conference on Risk Assessment, 5-9 October 1992, London was organised by the Health and Safety Commission of the UK and co-sponsored by a number of regional and international organizations namely: the European Commission, the ILO, the OECD and WHO. The main sessions of the conference cover what risk assessment means, the role of risk assessment in devising policies and regulations; and risk assessment in practice.

  3. Risk assessment, session 1-4. International conference 1992. Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The international conference on Risk Assessment, 5-9 October 1992, London was organised by the Health and Safety Commission of the UK and co-sponsored by a number of regional and international organizations namely: the European Commission, the ILO, the OECD and WHO. The main sessions of the conference cover what risk assessment means, the role of risk assessment in devising policies and regulations; and risk assessment in practice

  4. An employee/trade union perspective to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aro, Pekka O.

    1992-01-01

    Risk assessment does not easily lend itself to precise description. In some of its current forms of application, it is little more than a modern way of throwing bones or looking at tea leaves or the entrails of sheep, like our ancestors used to do not so many centuries ago (the only real difference being perhaps that laboratory rats are cheaper and less messy than sheep). A its best, however, risk assessment can be used as a good tool to identify the needs for changes required to reduce hazards and to prevent accidents to humans or damage to the environment. This paper approaches risk assessment as a tool, highlighting the need and usefulness as well as the right of employees and their representatives to participate in all the steps involved in assessing the risks of the workplace and its environment

  5. ILO activities in the field of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinnagoda, C [Occupational Safety and Health Branch, Working Conditions and Environment Department, International Labor Organization, Geneva (Switzerland)

    1992-07-01

    Control of chemical risks has become a matter of increasing concern for the occupational safety and health activities of the ILO. Its chemical safety programme focuses attention on a series of comprehensive measures to promote national level action for effective control of chemical risks aimed at the protection of workers and consequently of the general public. The supply and use of information based on risk assessment for exposure control and the application of practical improvement measures through improved risk management and training continue to receive increasing importance. The important and direct role of employers and workers in the assessment of risks and planning and implementation of workplace improvements is an identified need. Risk assessment is a component of the chemical safety programme of the ILO that places significant emphasis on: the setting of international standards that lay down basic principles in chemical risk assessment and control; national level action to promote coherent policies and programmes on safety in the use of chemicals and prevention of industrial disasters (major hazard control); technical advisory services through the development of guides and training programmes that focus on workplace participatory approaches; collection and dissemination of practical information; and technical co-operation assistance to developing countries.

  6. ILO activities in the field of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinnagoda, C.

    1992-01-01

    Control of chemical risks has become a matter of increasing concern for the occupational safety and health activities of the ILO. Its chemical safety programme focuses attention on a series of comprehensive measures to promote national level action for effective control of chemical risks aimed at the protection of workers and consequently of the general public. The supply and use of information based on risk assessment for exposure control and the application of practical improvement measures through improved risk management and training continue to receive increasing importance. The important and direct role of employers and workers in the assessment of risks and planning and implementation of workplace improvements is an identified need. Risk assessment is a component of the chemical safety programme of the ILO that places significant emphasis on: the setting of international standards that lay down basic principles in chemical risk assessment and control; national level action to promote coherent policies and programmes on safety in the use of chemicals and prevention of industrial disasters (major hazard control); technical advisory services through the development of guides and training programmes that focus on workplace participatory approaches; collection and dissemination of practical information; and technical co-operation assistance to developing countries

  7. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

  8. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  9. The impact of the human genome project on risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katarzyna Doerffer; Paul Unrau.

    1996-01-01

    The radiation protection approach to risk assessment assumes that cancer induction following radiation exposure is purely random. Present risk assessment methods derive risk from cancer incidence frequencies in exposed populations and associate disease outcomes totally with the level of exposure to ionizing red aeon. Exposure defines a risk factor that affects the probability of the disease outcome. But cancer risk can be affected by other risk factors such as underlying genetic factors (predisposition) of the exposed organism. These genetic risk factors are now becoming available for incorporation into ionizing radiation risk assessment Progress in the Human Genome Project (HOP) will lead to direct assays to measure the effects of genetic risk determinants in disease outcomes. When all genetic risk determinants are known and incorporated into risk assessment it will be possible to reevaluate the role of ionizing radiation in the causation of cancer. (author)

  10. Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

    2018-03-01

    The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

  11. Historical relationship between performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal and other types of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rechard, R.P.

    1999-01-01

    This article describes the evolution of the process for assessing the hazards of a geologic disposal system for radioactive waste and, similarly, nuclear power reactors, and the relationship of this process with other assessments of risk, particularly assessments of hazards from manufactured carcinogenic chemicals during use and disposal. This perspective reviews the common history of scientific concepts for risk assessment developed until the 1950s. Computational tools and techniques developed in the late 1950s and early 1960s to analyze the reliability of nuclear weapon delivery systems were adopted in the early 1970s for probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power reactors, a technology for which behavior was unknown. In turn, these analyses became an important foundation for performance assessment of nuclear waste disposal in the late 1970s. The evaluation of risk to human health and the environment from chemical hazards is built on methods for assessing the dose response of radionuclides in the 1950s. Despite a shared background, however, societal events, often in the form of legislation, have affected the development path for risk assessment for human health, producing dissimilarities between these risk assessments and those for nuclear facilities. An important difference is the regulator's interest in accounting for uncertainty

  12. Rejection with hemodynamic compromise in the current era of pediatric heart transplantation: a multi-institutional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Everitt, Melanie D; Pahl, Elfriede; Schechtman, Kenneth B; Zheng, Jie; Ringewald, Jeremy M; L'ecuyer, Thomas; Naftel, David C; Kirklin, James K; Blume, Elizabeth D; Bullock, Emily A; Canter, Charles E

    2011-03-01

    Survival after pediatric heart transplant has improved over time, as has the incidence of overall rejection. We studied the effect of era on the occurrence and outcome of rejection with hemodynamic compromise (HC). Data from 2227 patients who received allografts between 1993 and 2006 at 36 centers in the Pediatric Heart Transplant Study were analyzed to determine incidence, outcome, and risk factors for rejection with HC in early (1993-1999) and recent (2000-2006) eras. Rejection with HC was classified as severe (RSHC) when inotropes were used for circulatory support and mild (RMHC) when inotropes were not used. Of 1217 patients with any episode of rejection, 541 had rejection with HC. Freedom from RMHC improved at 1 year (81% vs 90%, p RMHC (87% at 1 year and 72% at 5 years, p RMHC was earlier era of transplant (HR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.56-2.41; p RMHC has declined over time but the same era effect has not occurred with RSHC. Close follow-up after RSHC is crucial because mortality is so high. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Uncertainty in ecological risk assessment: A statistician's view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, E.P.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty is a topic that has different meanings to researchers, modelers, managers and policy makers. The perspective of this presentation will be on the modeling view of uncertainty and its quantitative assessment. The goal is to provide some insight into how a statistician visualizes and addresses the issue of uncertainty in ecological risk assessment problems. In ecological risk assessment, uncertainty arises from many sources and is of different type depending on what is studies, where it is studied and how it is studied. Some major sources and their impact are described. A variety of quantitative approaches to modeling uncertainty are characterized and a general taxonomy given. Examples of risk assessments of lake acidification, power plant impact assessment and the setting of standards for chemicals will be used discuss approaches to quantitative assessment of uncertainty and some of the potential difficulties

  14. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haigh, R.

    1992-01-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live! The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die!. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk assessment in one country alone or to

  15. Risk assessment: A European Community perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haigh, R [Industrial Medicine and Hygiene Unit Health and Safety Directorate, Directorate-General Employment, Industrial Relations and Social Affairs Commission of the European Communities, Luxembourg (Luxembourg)

    1992-07-01

    The world is a risky place in which to live{exclamation_point} The world tolerates that 750,000 deaths occur on the roads each year. Society has not yet come to terms with the added burden that urbanisation brings to developing countries. Pollution from the use of fossil fuels creates incalculable loss to the world's environment and to the health of its inhabitants. The misuse of chemicals provokes suffering and deformity. In the European Community alone, over 21 million tonnes of toxic waste have to be treated each year. Of course, there are different types of risk: individual and societal. Individuals continue to travel by air in defiance of terrorists or faulty machinery. Whilst society urges caution in diet and nutrition, the individual is probably more worried about food additives that he is about eating too much or making a rigorous appraisal of the value of his die{exclamation_point}. As the conference progresses many people will die from the causes of malnutrition, from war or societal neglect while we, individually, will be more at risk from overeating. In other words, we perceive risks is in a multitude of ways. We tolerate these risks according to our perception of what we feel is acceptable without carrying out scientific assessment of the relative severity of those risks. If applied at a governmental level, this subjective tolerance can lead to unnecessary burdens or constraints that are disproportionate to the risk. Clearly, this is not acceptable for policy makers. We have just seen the closure of the UNCED World Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro, where the absolute need for more effective cooperation in the protection of the environment and the world inhabitants was convincingly demonstrated. The European Communities already coordinate risk assessment with its twelve Member States in a large number of areas and is increasing its international cooperation. We have recognized that it is no longer possible to carry out effective risk

  16. 78 FR 3824 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-16

    .... FDA-2012-N-1258] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for... entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside... defined in the regulation promulgated under section 418(n) of the FD&C Act. II. Qualitative Risk...

  17. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  18. [Patient safety in antibiotics administration: Risk assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maqueda Palau, M; Pérez Juan, E

    To determine the level of risk in the preparation and administration of antibiotics frequently used in the Intensive Care Unit using a risk matrix. A study was conducted using situation analysis and literature review of databases, protocols and good practice guidelines on intravenous therapy, drugs, and their administration routes. The most used antibiotics in the ICU registered in the ENVIN-HELICS program from 1 April to 30 June 2015 were selected. In this period, 257 patients received antimicrobial treatment and 26 antibiotics were evaluated. Variables studied: A risk assessment of each antibiotic using the scale Risk Assessment Tool, of the National Patient Safety Agency, as well as pH, osmolarity, type of catheter recommended for administration, and compatibility and incompatibility with other antibiotics studied. Almost two-thirds (65.3%) of antibiotics had more than 3 risk factors (represented by a yellow stripe), with the remaining 34.7% of antibiotics having between 0 and 2 risk factors (represented by a green stripe). There were no antibiotics with 6 or more risk factors (represented by a red stripe). Most drugs needed reconstitution, additional dilution, and the use of part of the vial to administer the prescribed dose. More than half of the antibiotics studied had a moderate risk level; thus measures should be adopted in order to reduce it. The risk matrix is a useful tool for the assessment and detection of weaknesses associated with the preparation and administration of intravenous antibiotics. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  19. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamel, D.R. [Department of Agriculture-Forest Service, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  20. Personalized risk communication for personalized risk assessment: Real world assessment of knowledge and motivation for six mortality risk measures from an online life expectancy calculator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manuel, Douglas G; Abdulaziz, Kasim E; Perez, Richard; Beach, Sarah; Bennett, Carol

    2018-01-01

    In the clinical setting, previous studies have shown personalized risk assessment and communication improves risk perception and motivation. We evaluated an online health calculator that estimated and presented six different measures of life expectancy/mortality based on a person's sociodemographic and health behavior profile. Immediately after receiving calculator results, participants were invited to complete an online survey that asked how informative and motivating they found each risk measure, whether they would share their results and whether the calculator provided information they need to make lifestyle changes. Over 80% of the 317 survey respondents found at least one of six healthy living measures highly informative and motivating, but there was moderate heterogeneity regarding which measures respondents found most informative and motivating. Overall, health age was most informative and life expectancy most motivating. Approximately 40% of respondents would share the results with their clinician (44%) or social networks (38%), although the information they would share was often different from what they found informative or motivational. Online personalized risk assessment allows for a more personalized communication compared to historic paper-based risk assessment to maximize knowledge and motivation, and people should be provided a range of risk communication measures that reflect different risk perspectives.