WorldWideScience

Sample records for risk assessment effort

  1. Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narumiya, Yoshiyuki

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

  2. Incorporating risk communication into highly pathogenic avian influenza preparedness and response efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Shauna J; Malladi, Sasidhar; Sampedro, Fernando; Snider, Tim; Goldsmith, Timothy; Hueston, William D; Lauer, Dale C; Halvorson, David A

    2012-12-01

    A highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the United States will initiate a federal emergency response effort that will consist of disease control and eradication efforts, including quarantine and movement control measures. These movement control measures will not only apply to live animals but also to animal products. However, with current egg industry "just-in-time" production practices, limited storage is available to hold eggs. As a result, stop movement orders can have significant unintended negative consequences, including severe disruptions to the food supply chain. Because stakeholders' perceptions of risk vary, waiting to initiate communication efforts until an HPAI event occurs can hinder disease control efforts, including the willingness of producers to comply with the response, and also can affect consumers' demand for the product. A public-private-academic partnership was formed to assess actual risks involved in the movement of egg industry products during an HPAI event through product specific, proactive risk assessments. The risk analysis process engaged a broad representation of stakeholders and promoted effective risk management and communication strategies before an HPAI outbreak event. This multidisciplinary team used the risk assessments in the development of the United States Department of Agriculture, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Secure Egg Supply Plan, a comprehensive response plan that strives to maintain continuity of business. The collaborative approach that was used demonstrates how a proactive risk communication strategy that involves many different stakeholders can be valuable in the development of a foreign animal disease response plan and build working relationships, trust, and understanding.

  3. Risk assessment, eradication, and biological control: global efforts to limit Australian acacia invasions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, John R.U.; Gairifo, Carla; Gibson, Michelle R.; Arianoutsou, Margarita; Bakar, Baki B.; Baret, Stephane; Celesti-Grapow, Laura; DiTomaso, Joseph M.; Dufour-Dror, Jean-Marc; Kueffer, Christoph; Kull, Christian A.; Hoffman, John H.; Impson, Fiona A.C.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Marchante, Elizabete; Harchante, Helia; Moore, Joslin L.; Murphy, Daniel J.; Tassin, Jacques; Witt, Arne; Zenni, Rafael D.; Richardson, David M.

    2011-01-01

    Aim Many Australian Acacia species have been planted around the world, some are highly valued, some are invasive, and some are both highly valued and invasive. We review global efforts to minimize the risk and limit the impact of invasions in this widely used plant group. Location Global. Methods Using information from literature sources, knowledge and experience of the authors, and the responses from a questionnaire sent to experts around the world, we reviewed: (1) a generalized life cycle of Australian acacias and how to control each life stage, (2) different management approaches and (3) what is required to help limit or prevent invasions. Results Relatively few Australian acacias have been introduced in large numbers, but all species with a long and extensive history of planting have become invasive somewhere. Australian acacias, as a group, have a high risk of becoming invasive and causing significant impacts as determined by existing assessment schemes. Moreover, in most situations, long-lived seed banks mean it is very difficult to control established infestations. Control has focused almost exclusively on widespread invaders, and eradication has rarely been attempted. Classical biological control is being used in South Africa with increasing success. Main conclusions A greater emphasis on pro-active rather than reactive management is required given the difficulties managing established invasions of Australian acacias. Adverse effects of proposed new introductions can be minimized by conducting detailed risk assessments in advance, planning for on-going monitoring and management, and ensuring resources are in place for long-term mitigation. Benign alternatives (e.g. sterile hybrids) could be developed to replace existing utilized taxa. Eradication should be set as a management goal more often to reduce the invasion debt. Introducing classical biological control agents that have a successful track-record in South Africa to other regions and identifying new

  4. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2001-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (Grant DE-FG01-96EW56093) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program and presents a synopsis of the effort that began in 1995 and will officially conclude on April 30, 2000. (author)

  5. Discounting the value of safety: effects of perceived risk and effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigurdsson, Sigurdur O; Taylor, Matthew A; Wirth, Oliver

    2013-09-01

    Although falls from heights remain the most prevalent cause of fatalities in the construction industry, factors impacting safety-related choices associated with work at heights are not completely understood. Better tools are needed to identify and study the factors influencing safety-related choices and decision making. Using a computer-based task within a behavioral economics paradigm, college students were presented a choice between two hypothetical scenarios that differed in working height and effort associated with retrieving and donning a safety harness. Participants were instructed to choose the scenario in which they were more likely to wear the safety harness. Based on choice patterns, switch points were identified, indicating when the perceived risk in both scenarios was equivalent. Switch points were a systematic function of working height and effort, and the quantified relation between perceived risk and effort was described well by a hyperbolic equation. Choice patterns revealed that the perceived risk of working at heights decreased as the effort to retrieve and don a safety harness increased. Results contribute to the development of computer-based procedure for assessing risk discounting within a behavioral economics framework. Such a procedure can be used as a research tool to study factors that influence safety-related decision making with a goal of informing more effective prevention and intervention strategies. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  7. A risk communication case study: the Nevada risk assessment/management program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hechanova, A.E.

    2000-01-01

    The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is part of a national effort by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication and public outreach as these objectives relate to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous material management and site remediation activities. This paper reviews the innovation behind the NRAMP project and presents a synopsis of the NRAMP effort which occurred from 1995 to 2000. The primary goals of the DOE in awarding the cooperative agreement establishing NRAMP were to (I) use a risk-based approach to evaluate the consequences of alternative actions in DOE's Environmental Remediation Programs at sites in Nevada and (2) use a neutral and credible institution outside the DOE to perform the risk assessments and contribute to public education about environmental management issues at the Nevada Test Site. (author)

  8. PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS OF REMEDIATION EFFORTS IN NAPL SITES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Garcia, D.; de Vries, L.; Pool, M.; Sapriza, G.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Bolster, D.; Tartakovsky, D. M.

    2009-12-01

    The release of non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) such as petroleum hydrocarbons and chlorinated solvents in the subsurface is a severe source of groundwater and vapor contamination. Because these liquids are essentially immiscible due to low solubility, these contaminants get slowly dissolved in groundwater and/or volatilized in the vadoze zone threatening the environment and public health over a long period. Many remediation technologies and strategies have been developed in the last decades for restoring the water quality properties of these contaminated sites. The failure of an on-site treatment technology application is often due to the unnoticed presence of dissolved NAPL entrapped in low permeability areas (heterogeneity) and/or the remaining of substantial amounts of pure phase after remediation efforts. Full understanding of the impact of remediation efforts is complicated due to the role of many interlink physical and biochemical processes taking place through several potential pathways of exposure to multiple receptors in a highly unknown heterogeneous environment. Due to these difficulties, the design of remediation strategies and definition of remediation endpoints have been traditionally determined without quantifying the risk associated with the failure of such efforts. We conduct a probabilistic risk assessment of the likelihood of success of an on-site NAPL treatment technology that easily integrates all aspects of the problem (causes, pathways, and receptors). Thus, the methodology allows combining the probability of failure of a remediation effort due to multiple causes, each one associated to several pathways and receptors.

  9. Effort in Multitasking: Local and Global Assessment of Effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiesel, Andrea; Dignath, David

    2017-01-01

    When performing multiple tasks in succession, self-organization of task order might be superior compared to external-controlled task schedules, because self-organization allows optimizing processing modes and thus reduces switch costs, and it increases commitment to task goals. However, self-organization is an additional executive control process that is not required if task order is externally specified and as such it is considered as time-consuming and effortful. To compare self-organized and externally controlled task scheduling, we suggest assessing global subjective and objectives measures of effort in addition to local performance measures. In our new experimental approach, we combined characteristics of dual tasking settings and task switching settings and compared local and global measures of effort in a condition with free choice of task sequence and a condition with cued task sequence. In a multi-tasking environment, participants chose the task order while the task requirement of the not-yet-performed task remained the same. This task preview allowed participants to work on the previously non-chosen items in parallel and resulted in faster responses and fewer errors in task switch trials than in task repetition trials. The free-choice group profited more from this task preview than the cued group when considering local performance measures. Nevertheless, the free-choice group invested more effort than the cued group when considering global measures. Thus, self-organization in task scheduling seems to be effortful even in conditions in which it is beneficiary for task processing. In a second experiment, we reduced the possibility of task preview for the not-yet-performed tasks in order to hinder efficient self-organization. Here neither local nor global measures revealed substantial differences between the free-choice and a cued task sequence condition. Based on the results of both experiments, we suggest that global assessment of effort in addition to

  10. Development of risk assessment tool for foundry workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, G Madhan; Prasad, P S S; Mokkapati, Anil Kumar; Venkataraman, G

    2008-01-01

    Occupational ill-health and work-related disorders are predominant in manufacturing industries due to the inevitable presence of manual work even after several waves of industrial automation and technological advancements. Ergonomic risk factors and musculoskeletal disorders like low-back symptoms have been noted amongst foundry workers. The purpose of this study was to formulate and develop a Physical Effort Index to assess risk factor. The questionnaire tool applicable to foundry environment has been designed and validated. The data recorded through survey across the foundries has been subjected to regression analysis to correlate between proposed physical effort index and the standard Borg's Ratings of Perceived Exertion (RPE) scale. The physical efforts of sixty seven workers in various foundry shop floors were assessed subjectively. The 'Job factors' and 'Work environment' were the two major parameters considered in assessing the worker discomfort level at workplace. A relation between Borg's RPE scale and the above two parameters were arrived at, through regression analysis. The study demonstrates the prevalence of risk factors amongst foundry workers and the effectiveness of the proposed index in estimating the risk factor levels. RELEVANCE TO THE INDUSTRY: The proposed tool will assist foundry supervisors and managers to assess the risk factors and helps in better understanding of the workplace to avoid work-related disorders, ensuring better output.

  11. Risk assessment and multi-criteria decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Segerstaahl, Boris

    1989-01-01

    Risk assessment and analysis is connected to the policy framework used in decision-making on issues concerning technological risk. A review of the problems created by different views concerning the fundamental structure of risk concepts is used as a way to describe the structure of risk assessment studies as used in decision-making. The fundamental difference between judgments based on assessments and on perceptions is analyzed in order to explain the dynamics of the decision making process. A proposed effort to study the energy sector as a dynamic endless game implementing a mixed strategy is suggested. (author)

  12. Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, Vickie S., E-mail: wilson.vickie@epa.gov [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Keshava, Nagalakshmi [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Hester, Susan [National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 (United States); Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Euling, Susan Y. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment.

  13. Utilizing toxicogenomic data to understand chemical mechanism of action in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, Vickie S.; Keshava, Nagalakshmi; Hester, Susan; Segal, Deborah; Chiu, Weihsueh; Thompson, Chad M.; Euling, Susan Y.

    2013-01-01

    The predominant role of toxicogenomic data in risk assessment, thus far, has been one of augmentation of more traditional in vitro and in vivo toxicology data. This article focuses on the current available examples of instances where toxicogenomic data has been evaluated in human health risk assessment (e.g., acetochlor and arsenicals) which have been limited to the application of toxicogenomic data to inform mechanism of action. This article reviews the regulatory policy backdrop and highlights important efforts to ultimately achieve regulatory acceptance. A number of research efforts on specific chemicals that were designed for risk assessment purposes have employed mechanism or mode of action hypothesis testing and generating strategies. The strides made by large scale efforts to utilize toxicogenomic data in screening, testing, and risk assessment are also discussed. These efforts include both the refinement of methodologies for performing toxicogenomics studies and analysis of the resultant data sets. The current issues limiting the application of toxicogenomics to define mode or mechanism of action in risk assessment are discussed together with interrelated research needs. In summary, as chemical risk assessment moves away from a single mechanism of action approach toward a toxicity pathway-based paradigm, we envision that toxicogenomic data from multiple technologies (e.g., proteomics, metabolomics, transcriptomics, supportive RT-PCR studies) can be used in conjunction with one another to understand the complexities of multiple, and possibly interacting, pathways affected by chemicals which will impact human health risk assessment

  14. Validating the Octave Allegro Information Systems Risk Assessment Methodology: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, Corland G.

    2014-01-01

    An information system (IS) risk assessment is an important part of any successful security management strategy. Risk assessments help organizations to identify mission-critical IS assets and prioritize risk mitigation efforts. Many risk assessment methodologies, however, are complex and can only be completed successfully by highly qualified and…

  15. Global challenges in the risk assessment of nanomaterials: Relevance to South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Gulumian

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Internationally, there are efforts to develop standardised toxicity testing and risk assessmentmethods for engineered nanomaterials (ENMs. To this end, health risk assessments need tobe conducted on ENMs synthesised in South Africa. Country-specific risk characterisationrequires specific exposure assessments for those ENMs for which the likelihood exists foroccupational and environmental exposure in that country. A challenge in hazard identificationand risk assessment related to ENMs, regardless of country of origin, is that data on toxicity,carcinogenicity, pharmacokinetics, and occupational or environmental exposure are generallynot available for most ENMs. Although the mechanisms previously identified as importantin the toxicity and carcinogenicity of particles and fibres may be applicable, the possibilityexists that the unusual physicochemical properties of ENMs may give rise to unique, andas yet unidentified, adverse effects. Moreover, generalised exposure scenarios that considerthe life cycle of the agent have not been developed and are needed for the complete riskcharacterisation of ENMs. As health risk assessment is both resource and labour intensive, it isimperative to identify the aims of such an exercise prior to embarking on large-scale projects,to ensure that the data most useful for public health decision-making is provided. Identifyingpriorities in South Africa, in coordination with international efforts, can facilitate the effectiveuse of research efforts for risk assessment and risk management decision-making.

  16. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  17. Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Botzen, W. J.; Clarke, K. C.; Cutter, S. L.; Hall, J. W.; Merz, B.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Kunreuther, H.

    2018-03-01

    The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.

  18. Effect of Community Engagement Interventions on Patient Safety and Risk Reduction Efforts in Primary Health Facilities: Evidence from Ghana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Kaba Alhassan

    Full Text Available Patient safety and quality care remain major challenges to Ghana's healthcare system. Like many health systems in Africa, this is largely because demand for healthcare is outstripping available human and material resource capacity of healthcare facilities and new investment is insufficient. In the light of these demand and supply constraints, systematic community engagement (SCE in healthcare quality assessment can be a feasible and cost effective option to augment existing quality improvement interventions. SCE entails structured use of existing community groups to assess healthcare quality in health facilities. Identified quality gaps are discussed with healthcare providers, improvements identified and rewards provided if the quality gaps are closed.This paper evaluates whether or not SCE, through the assessment of health service quality, improves patient safety and risk reduction efforts by staff in healthcare facilities.A randomized control trail was conducted in 64 primary healthcare facilities in the Greater Accra and Western regions of Ghana. Patient risk assessments were conducted in 32 randomly assigned intervention and control facilities. Multivariate multiple regression test was used to determine effect of the SCE interventions on staff efforts towards reducing patient risk. Spearman correlation test was used to ascertain associations between types of community groups engaged and risk assessment scores of healthcare facilities.Clinic staff efforts towards increasing patient safety and reducing risk improved significantly in intervention facilities especially in the areas of leadership/accountability (Coef. = 10.4, p<0.05 and staff competencies (Coef. = 7.1, p<0.05. Improvement in service utilization and health resources could not be attributed to the interventions because these were outside the control of the study and might have been influenced by institutional or national level developments between the baseline and follow-up period

  19. Assessment of aircraft risk reduction at Pantex Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Y.T.; Hedtke, R.; Fike, D.; Diniz, J.

    1996-01-01

    The possibility of an aircraft crashing into the Department of Energy's (DOE) Pantex plant facility has been of concern in risk assessments. In response to public concerns, and in an effort to reduce risks associated with overflights of Pantex, several changes to navigational aids at Amarillo International Airport have been implemented. For over one year, a radar airspace monitor and recording system has been connected to the airport surveillance radar at Amarillo to record the flight paths, aircraft types, and traffic density of aircraft in the vicinity of the Pantex plant. The data has provided a better understanding of the overflight risk at Pantex as well as a means to measure the effectiveness of risk reduction efforts

  20. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  1. Annual Report: National Risk Assessment Partnership (30 September 2012)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bromhal, Grant [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States); Guthrie, George [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States)

    2012-09-30

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) is conducting research to advance the science and engineering knowledge base for technologies that will accelerate the business case for CO2 capture and storage, including prediction and quantification of risks that may relate to potential liabilities. As part of this effort, NETL, through its Office of Research and Development (ORD), is leading a multi-laboratory effort that leverages broad technical capabilities across the DOE complex: the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP involves five DOE national laboratories: NETL, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). This team is working together to develop a science-based method for quantifying the likelihood of risks (and associated potential liabilities) for CO2 storage sites. NRAP is an effort that harnesses the breadth of capabilities across the DOE National Laboratory (NL) system into a mission-focused platform that will develop the integrated science base that can be applied to risk assessment for long-term storage of CO2.

  2. Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program scientific peer review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentz, E.J. Jr.; Bentz, C.B.; O'Hora, T.D.; Chen, S.Y.

    1997-01-01

    The 1,350 square-mile Nevada Test Site and additional sites in Nevada served as the continental sites for US nuclear weapons testing from 1951 to 1992. The Nevada Risk Assessment/Management Program (NRAMP) is a currently on-going effort of the Harry Reid Center for Environmental Studies at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) and the firm of E. J. Bentz and Associates, Inc., in cooperation with the US Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management Program. Argonne National Laboratory is one of several public and private organizations supporting personnel appointed by the NRAMP to the NRAMP Scientific Peer Review Panel. The NRAMP is part of a national effort by the DOE to develop new sources of information and approaches to risk assessment, risk management, risk communication, and public outreach relevant to the ecological and human health effects of radioactive and hazardous materials management and site remediation activities. This paper describes the development, conduct, and current results of the scientific peer review process which supports the goals of the NRAMP

  3. Review of the Diablo Canyon probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bozoki, G.E.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Bohn, M.P.; Sabek, M.G.; Ravindra, M.K.; Johnson, J.J.

    1994-08-01

    This report details the review of the Diablo Canyon Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DCPRA). The study was performed under contract from the Probabilistic Risk Analysis Branch, Office of Nuclear Reactor Research, USNRC by Brookhaven National Laboratory. The DCPRA is a full scope Level I effort and although the review touched on all aspects of the PRA, the internal events and seismic events received the vast majority of the review effort. The report includes a number of independent systems analyses sensitivity studies, importance analyses as well as conclusions on the adequacy of the DCPRA for use in the Diablo Canyon Long Term Seismic Program

  4. WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  5. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rath, F. [University of Wisconsin Madison (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  6. WE-B-BRC-01: Current Methodologies in Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rath, F.

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  7. WE-B-BRC-00: Concepts in Risk-Based Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    Prospective quality management techniques, long used by engineering and industry, have become a growing aspect of efforts to improve quality management and safety in healthcare. These techniques are of particular interest to medical physics as scope and complexity of clinical practice continue to grow, thus making the prescriptive methods we have used harder to apply and potentially less effective for our interconnected and highly complex healthcare enterprise, especially in imaging and radiation oncology. An essential part of most prospective methods is the need to assess the various risks associated with problems, failures, errors, and design flaws in our systems. We therefore begin with an overview of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The rationale for use of process mapping, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) and fault tree analysis (FTA) by TG-100 will be described, as well as suggestions for the way forward. This is followed by discussion of radiation oncology specific risk assessment strategies and issues, including the TG-100 effort to evaluate IMRT and other ways to think about risk in the context of radiotherapy. Incident learning systems, local as well as the ASTRO/AAPM ROILS system, can also be useful in the risk assessment process. Finally, risk in the context of medical imaging will be discussed. Radiation (and other) safety considerations, as well as lack of quality and certainty all contribute to the potential risks associated with suboptimal imaging. The goal of this session is to summarize a wide variety of risk analysis methods and issues to give the medical physicist access to tools which can better define risks (and their importance) which we work to mitigate with both prescriptive and prospective risk-based quality management methods. Learning Objectives: Description of risk assessment methodologies used in healthcare and industry Discussion of radiation oncology

  8. An approach to security risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engells, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    Use of a brief survey instrument described in this article can be a useful means of obtaining actionable information in regards to risk assessment and crime prevention, the author points out. The survey yields data that assists in the prioritization of effort that can enhance the impact of a limited pool of qualified specialists.

  9. Westinghouse Owners Group Risk-Informed Regulation Efforts: Options 2 and 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Jason A.; Osterrieder, Robert A.; Lutz, Robert J.; Dingler, Maurice; Ward, Lewis A.

    2002-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has initiated efforts to incorporate risk-informed methods to redefine the scope of the existing 10 CFR 50 regulations (Option 2) and to change the technical requirements of the regulations (Option 3). The overall objectives of these efforts are to enhance plant safety, provide a framework for risk-informed regulations, add flexibility to plant operations, and reduce regulatory burden. The Westinghouse Owners Group (WOG) has a variety of active programs in the risk-informed area, including a program in the Option 2 and Option 3 areas. These two programs will be summarized including the benefits and the technical approach. The purpose of Option 2 is to make changes to the overall scope of structures, systems and components (SSCs) covered by 10 CFR 50 requiring special treatment by formulating new risk-informed safety classification categories that are linked to current definitions of safety-related and important-to-safety. This initiative would permit possible changes to the current special treatment requirements based on risk insights. The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) has developed an Option 2 implementation guideline (NEI 00-04 Draft Revision B). The WOG has initiated a program to validate the NEI guideline and to provide an initial cost-benefit assessment of the revised categorization and treatment under Option 2 via trial application to two systems at both Surry Unit 1 and Wolf Creek. The WOG Option 2 program includes consideration of all of the components in the selected systems, regardless of whether or not they are modeled in the respective plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) studies. As a result, quantitative risk measures are not available for many of the components being considered. In this case, the WOG program will provide valuable input to the NEI guideline. Additionally, the WOG program extends the use of both of the dominant methodologies for risk-informed ISI (RI-ISI) to address repair and

  10. An overview of the fire risk scoping study objectives, approach, findings and follow-on efforts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowlen, S.P.; Lambright, J.A.; Nicolette, V.F.; Bohn, M.P.

    1989-01-01

    The Fire Risk Scoping Study was sponsored by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and performed at Sandia National Laboratories. The study was initiated as a result of previous USNRC-sponsored fire research efforts that had identified certain fire risk issues which had not been addressed in previously completed commercial nuclear power plant fire risk analyses. The specific objectives of this study were (1) to review and requantify fire risk scenarios from four fire probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) in light of updated data bases made available as a result of USNRC sponsored Fire Protection Research Program and updated computer fire modeling capabilities, (2) to identify potentially significant fire risk issues that have not been previously addressed in a fire risk context and to quantify the potential impact of those identified fire risk issues where possible, and (3) to review current fire regulations and plant implementation practices for relevance to the identified unaddressed fire risk issues. 8 refs., 2 tabs

  11. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  12. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  13. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  14. Access and use of information resources in assessing health risks from chemical exposure: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    Health risk assessment is based on access to comprehensive information about potentially hazardous agents in question. Relevant information is scattered throughout the literature, and often is not readily accessible. To be useful in assessment efforts, emerging scientific findings, risk assess parameters, and associated data must be compiled and evaluated systemically. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) are among the federal agencies heavily involved in this effort. This symposium was a direct response by EPA and ORNL to the expressed needs of individuals involved in assessing risks from chemical exposure. In an effort to examine the state of the risk assessment process, the availability of toxicological information, and the future development and transfer of this information, the symposium provided an excellent cadre of speakers and participants from state and federal agencies, academia and research laboratories to address these topics. This stimulating and productive gathering discussed concerns associated with (1) environmental contamination by chemicals; (2) laws regulating chemicals; (3) information needs and resources; (4) applications; (5) challenges and priorities; and (6)future issues. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases

  15. Access and use of information resources in assessing health risks from chemical exposure: Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-12-31

    Health risk assessment is based on access to comprehensive information about potentially hazardous agents in question. Relevant information is scattered throughout the literature, and often is not readily accessible. To be useful in assessment efforts, emerging scientific findings, risk assess parameters, and associated data must be compiled and evaluated systemically. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) are among the federal agencies heavily involved in this effort. This symposium was a direct response by EPA and ORNL to the expressed needs of individuals involved in assessing risks from chemical exposure. In an effort to examine the state of the risk assessment process, the availability of toxicological information, and the future development and transfer of this information, the symposium provided an excellent cadre of speakers and participants from state and federal agencies, academia and research laboratories to address these topics. This stimulating and productive gathering discussed concerns associated with (1) environmental contamination by chemicals; (2) laws regulating chemicals; (3) information needs and resources; (4) applications; (5) challenges and priorities; and (6)future issues. Individual reports are processed separately for the data bases.

  16. The Department of Homeland Security's Risk Assessment Methodology: Evolution, Issues, and Options for Congress

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Masse, Todd; O'Neil, Siobhan; Rollins, John

    2007-01-01

    .... Secretary Chertoff has stated "DHS must base its work on priorities driven by risk" and, increasingly, risk assessment and subsequent risk mitigation have influenced all of the department's efforts...

  17. Audit Risk Assessment in the Light of Current European Regulations

    OpenAIRE

    Ciprian-Costel Munteanu

    2015-01-01

    Recent European reforms on audit regulations have been motivated by efforts to increase audit quality, functioning and performance. We believe the adoption of Directive 2014/56 and Regulation 537/2014 strengthened the role of independent audit and risk committees, which will positively contribute towards audit quality. This paper aims to critically assess the status quo of audit risk assessment in current European standards and regulations, by conducting a theoretical analysis of different as...

  18. A perspective of PC-based probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Robinson, R.C.; Russell, K.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) information has been under-utilized in the past due to the large effort required to input the PRA data and the large expense of the computers needed to run PRA codes. The microcomputer-based Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) and the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) System, under development at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, have greatly enhanced the ability of managers to use PRA techniques in their decision-making. IRRAS is a tool that allows an analyst to create, modify, update, and reanalyze a plant PRA to keep the risk assessment current with the plant's configuration and operation. The SARA system is used to perform sensitivity studies on the results of a PRA. This type of analysis can be used to evaluate proposed changes to a plant or its operation. The success of these two software projects demonstrate that risk information can be made readily available to those that need it. This is the first step in the development of a true risk management capability

  19. Constructing post-carbon institutions: Assessing EU carbon reduction efforts through an institutional risk governance approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LaBelle, Michael

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines three different governance approaches the European Union (EU) and Member States (MS) are relying on to reach a low carbon economy by 2050. Current governance literature explains the operational methods of the EU's new governance approach to reduce carbon emissions. However, the literature neglects to account for the perceived risks that inhibit the roll-out of new low carbon technology. This article, through a novel approach, uses a grounded theoretical framework to reframe traditional risk literature and provides a connection to governance literature in order to assess the ability of EU governance mechanisms to reduce carbon emissions. The empirical research is based on responses from European energy stakeholders who participated in a Delphi method discussion and in semi-structured interviews; these identified three essential requirements for carbon emissions to be reduced to near zero by 2050: (1) an integrated European energy network, (2) carbon pricing and (3) demand reduction. These features correspond to institutionalized responses by the EU and MS: the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER); European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and energy efficiency directives and policies integrated into existing MS institutions. The theoretical and empirical findings suggest that governance by facilitation (energy efficiency) fails to induce significant investment and new policy approaches and cannot be relied on to achieve requisite reductions in demand. Governance by negotiation (ACER) and governance by hierarchy (EU ETS) do reduce risks and may encourage the necessary technological uptake. The term ‘risk governance’ is used to explain the important role governance plays in reducing risks and advancing new technology and thereby lowering carbon emissions in the energy sector. - Highlights: ► This article assesses the role of EU institutions in reducing carbon emissions by 2050. ► Empirical research is based on Delphi

  20. Qualitative risk assessment as a remediation management tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knutson, D.E.

    1991-01-01

    The technique used to complete this thesis utilizes existing NRC and EPA guidance on health-based risk to qualitatively prioritize preliminary assessments and provide a tool for the direction and management of remediation activities. This method is intended as a decision making tool to aid in prioritizing the remediation effort and manage the remedial investigation and feasibility study (RI/FS) process. It is not a replacement for the RI/FS. The methodology for qualitative risk assessment utilizes data gathered in preliminary assessments and calculates the health-based hazards and consequences from contaminants found at each individual location. The health-based qualitative risk indicated that number-sign 6 fuel oil, carbon tetrachloride, depleted uranium, and enriched uranium were the contaminants of major concern, in that order. Plutonium ranked approximately sixth in the contaminant of concern priority. 38 refs., 1 fig., 9 tabs

  1. An Approach to On-line Risk Assessment in NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simic, Z.; Mikulicic, V.; O'Brien, J.

    1996-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can provide safety status information for a plant during different configurations; additional effort is needed to do this in real time for on-line operation. This paper describes an approach to use PRA to achieve these goals. A Risk Assessment On-Line (RAOL) application was developed to monitor maintenance (on-line and planned) activities. RAOL is based on the results from a full-scope PRA, engineering/operational judgment and incorporates a user friendly program interface approach. Results from RAOL can be used by planners or operations to effectively manage the level of risk by controlling the actual plant configuration. (author)

  2. Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew P. Thompson; David E. Calkin; Julie W. Gilbertson-Day; Alan A. Ager

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and mitigation measures. The research effort is designed to develop, from a strategic view, a first approximation of how both...

  3. Occupational health policies on risk assessment in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horie, Seichi

    2010-09-01

    Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law) of Japan requires abnormalities identified in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording "employers shall endeavor." Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifies criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer significant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, financial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  4. Occupational Health Policies on Risk Assessment in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seichi Horie

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Industrial Safety and Health Law (ISH Law of Japan requires abnormalities identifi ed in evaluations of worker health and working environments are reported to occupational physicians, and employers are advised of measures to ensure appropriate accommodations in working environments and work procedures. Since the 1980s, notions of a risk assessment and occupational safety and health management system were expected to further prevent industrial accidents. In 2005, ISH Law stipulated workplace risk assessment using the wording “employers shall endeavor.” Following the amendment, multiple documents and guidelines for risk assessment for different work procedures were developed. They require ISH Laws to be implemented fully and workplaces to plan and execute measures to reduce risks, ranking them from those addressing potential hazards to those requiring workers to wear protective articles. A governmental survey in 2005 found the performance of risk assessment was 20.4% and common reasons for not implementing risk assessments were lack of adequate personnel or knowledge. ISH Law specifi es criminal penalties for both individuals and organizations. Moreover, under the Labor Contract Law promulgated in 2007, employers are obliged to make reasonable efforts to ensure employee health for foreseeable and avoidable risks. Therefore, enterprises neglecting even the non-binding provisions of guidelines are likely to suffer signifi cant business impact if judged to be responsible for industrial accidents or occupational disease. To promote risk assessment, we must strengthen technical, fi nancial, and physical support from public-service organizations, encourage the dissemination of good practices to reduce risks, and consider additional employer incentives, including relaxed mandatory regulations.

  5. Therapeutic outcomes, assessments, risk factors and mitigation efforts of immunogenicity of therapeutic protein products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Liusong; Chen, Xiaoying; Vicini, Paolo; Rup, Bonita; Hickling, Timothy P

    2015-06-01

    Therapeutic protein products (TPPs) are of considerable value in the treatment of a variety of diseases, including cancer, hemophilia, and autoimmune diseases. The success of TPP mainly results from prolonged half-life, increased target specificity and decreased intrinsic toxicity compared with small molecule drugs. However, unwanted immune responses against TPP, such as generation of anti-drug antibody, can impact both drug efficacy and patient safety, which has led to requirements for increased monitoring in regulatory studies and clinical practice, termination of drug development, or even withdrawal of marketed products. We present an overview of current knowledge on immunogenicity of TPP and its impact on efficacy and safety. We also discuss methods for measurement and prediction of immunogenicity and review both product-related and patient-related risk factors that affect its development, and efforts that may be taken to mitigate it. Lastly, we discuss gaps in knowledge and technology and what is needed to fill these. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

    2014-09-01

    Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health.

  7. Identification of Potential Hazard using Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sari, R. M.; Syahputri, K.; Rizkya, I.; Siregar, I.

    2017-03-01

    This research was conducted in the paper production’s company. These Paper products will be used as a cigarette paper. Along in the production’s process, Company provides the machines and equipment that operated by workers. During the operations, all workers may potentially injured. It known as a potential hazard. Hazard identification and risk assessment is one part of a safety and health program in the stage of risk management. This is very important as part of efforts to prevent occupational injuries and diseases resulting from work. This research is experiencing a problem that is not the identification of potential hazards and risks that would be faced by workers during the running production process. The purpose of this study was to identify the potential hazards by using hazard identification and risk assessment methods. Risk assessment is done using severity criteria and the probability of an accident. According to the research there are 23 potential hazard that occurs with varying severity and probability. Then made the determination Risk Assessment Code (RAC) for each potential hazard, and gained 3 extreme risks, 10 high risks, 6 medium risks and 3 low risks. We have successfully identified potential hazard using RAC.

  8. Identifying Factors Associated with Risk Assessment Competencies of Public Health Emergency Responders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Jiejing; Ren, Jiaojiao; Wu, Qunhong; Hao, Yanhua; Sun, Hong; Ning, Ning; Ding, Ding

    2017-06-04

    This study aimed to better understand the current situation of risk assessment and identify the factors associated with competence of emergency responders in public health risk assessment. The participants were selected by a multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling method in Heilongjiang Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The questionnaires that measured their perceptions on risk assessment competences were administered through the face-to-face survey. A final sample of 1889 staff was obtained. Of this sample, 78.6% of respondents rated their own risk assessment competences as "relatively low", contrasting with 21.4% rated as "relatively high". Most of the respondents (62.7%) did not participate in any risk assessment work. Only 13.7% and 42.7% of respondents reported participating in risk assessment training and were familiar with risk assessment tools. There existed statistical significance between risk assessment-related characteristics of respondents and their self-rated competences scores. Financial support from the government and administrative attention were regarded as the important factors contributing to risk assessment competences of CDC responders. Higher attention should be given to risk assessment training and enhancing the availability of surveillance data. Continuous efforts should be made to remove the financial and technical obstacles to improve the competences of risk assessment for public health emergency responders.

  9. Whither Risk Assessment: New Challenges and Opportunities a Third of a Century After the Red Book.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Michael; Goldstein, Bernard D; Anderson, Elizabeth; Dourson, Michael; Landis, Wayne; North, D Warner

    2015-11-01

    Six multi-decade-long members of SRA reflect on the 1983 Red Book in order to examine the evolving relationship between risk assessment and risk management; the diffusion of risk assessment practice to risk areas such as homeland security and transportation; the quality of chemical risk databases; challenges from other groups to elements at the core of risk assessment practice; and our collective efforts to communicate risk assessment to a diverse set of critical groups that do not understand risk, risk assessment, or many other risk-related issues. The authors reflect on the 10 recommendations in the Red Book and present several pressing challenges for risk assessment practitioners. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Failure rate data for fusion safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwallader, L.C.

    1993-01-01

    The Fusion Safety Program (FSP) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) conducts safety research in materials, chemical reactions, safety analysis, risk assessment, and in component research and development to support existing magnetic fusion experiments and also to promote safety in the design of future experiments. One of the areas of safety research is applying probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to fusion experiments. To apply PRA, we need a fusion-relevant radiological dose code and a component failure rate data base. This paper describes the FSP effort to develop a failure rate data base for fusion-specific components

  11. Assessing the risks of nuclear and chemical contamination in the former Soviet Union

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, J.

    1996-01-01

    In the first four chapters the focus is on risk assessment and the role of various segments of the society in defining risk criteria. In Chapter 2, the interface between science, policymaking, and environmental law is addressed. In chapter 3, the importance of including organizational and human factors in risk assessments is discussed. It is noted that risk assessment is also a matter for an informed public. Chapter 4 focuses on the specific application of technology to hazardous waste disposal. The most expensive high-tech equipment may not always be the best to solve a particular disposal problem. In Chapter 5 international efforts to determine the effects of nuclear testing are examined, moving on to question the methods used to define risk criteria. The last four chapters of the book focus on risk assessment and the role of various segments of the society in defining risk criteria. Chapter 6 is an introduction to the work done to assess the environmental and health affects of the 1986 accident at Chernobyl. Also the Ukrainian government's effort to assess additional natural and anthropogenic sources of radioactive contamination is discussed. In chapter 7, the efforts by the International Atomic Energy Agency and other organizations to assess the effects of Chernobyl are examined. The eighth chapter introduces the means by which nongovernmental environmental groups (NGO), e.g. Greenpeace, collect information on environmental threats and the role they play in informing the larger public about them. In this case, the dumping of radioactive waste in the Kara and Barents Seas is examined in detail. In Chapter 9 it is examined how interdisciplinary groups are required to assess the environmental and health effects of the dumping in the Kara and Barents Seas. The issues of reliable data and determining risk in the absence of data are discussed. In the final chapter, the major themes and results of the workshop are summarized, including a set of recommendations for

  12. Audit Risk Assessment in the Light of Current European Regulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciprian-Costel Munteanu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent European reforms on audit regulations have been motivated by efforts to increase audit quality, functioning and performance. We believe the adoption of Directive 2014/56 and Regulation 537/2014 strengthened the role of independent audit and risk committees, which will positively contribute towards audit quality. This paper aims to critically assess the status quo of audit risk assessment in current European standards and regulations, by conducting a theoretical analysis of different aspects of audit risk. Our main objective is to stress the importance of detecting inherent and control risk, which lead to material misstatement at the assertion level. They need to be assessed so as to determine the nature, timing and extent of further audit procedures necessary to obtain sufficient appropriate audit evidence. These pieces of evidence enable the auditor to express an opinion on the financial statements at an acceptably low level of audit risk. Therefore, we point to the fact that researchers as well as practitioners and policymakers have to be careful when using audit tools and assessing risk levels, as their conclusions continuously shape the regulations.

  13. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  14. Environmental risk assessment for start-up of a new consolidated maintenance facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heubach, J.G.; Wise, J.A.

    1992-10-01

    This paper summarizes a case study of a risk assessment for a consolidated maintenance facility (CMF). An interdisciplinary team was formed to identify and evaluate showstopper'' risks which could delay or prevent ontime, safe, and economical operation of a CMF and to recommend ways to mitigate the risks. The risk assessment was constrained by time, information, incomplete plans and facilities, and a concomitant major transition in manufacturing process, organization, and technology. Working within these constraints, the team integrated convergent findings into estimates of high, medium, and low risks based on the subjective likelihood of occurrence and predicted consequences of potential hazard events. The team also made risk-reduction recommendations for facility detail design and production start-up. The findings and recommendations reported in this study focus on risks related to environmental design and workstation ergonomics. Findings from the risk assessment effort should aid other constrained risk assessments and applied research on similar facilities.

  15. Transportation System Risk Assessment on DOE Defense Program shipments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brumburgh, G.P.; Kimura, C.Y.; Alesso, H.P.; Prassinos, P.G.

    1992-01-01

    Substantial effort has been expended concerning the level of safety provided to persons, property, and the environment from the hazards associated with transporting radioactive material. This work provided an impetus for the Department of Energy to investigate the use of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to supplement the deterministic approach to transportation safety. The DOE recently decided to incorporate the methodologies associated with PRAs in the process for authorizing the transportation of nuclear components, special assemblies, and radioactive materials affiliated with the DOE Defense Program. Accordingly, the LLNL, sponsored by the DOE/AL, is tasked with developing a safety guide series to provide guidance to preparers performing a transportation system risk assessment

  16. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  17. A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Datta, Koushik; Fraser, Douglas R.

    2009-01-01

    The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

  18. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  19. Task difficulty, risk, effort and comfort in a simulated driving task--Implications for Risk Allostasis Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis-Evans, Ben; Rothengatter, Talib

    2009-09-01

    Risk Allostasis Theory states that drivers seek to maintain a feeling of risk within a preferred range [Fuller, R., 2008. What drives the driver? Surface tensions and hidden consensus. In: Keynote at the 4th International Conference on Traffic and Transport Psychology, Washington, DC, August 31-September 4, 2008]. Risk Allostasis Theory is the latest version of Task-Difficulty Homeostasis theory, and is in part based on the findings of experiments where participants were asked to rate the task difficulty, feeling of risk and chance of collision of scenes shown in digitally altered video clips [Fuller, R., McHugh, C., Pender, S., 2008b. Task difficulty and risk in the determination of driver behaviour. Revue européenne de psychologie appliqée 58, 13-21]. The focus of the current research was to expand upon the previous video based experiments using a driving simulator. This allowed participants to be in control of the vehicle rather than acting as passive observers, as well as providing additional speed cues. The results support previous findings that ratings of task difficulty and feeling of risk are related, and that they are also highly related to ratings of effort and moderately related to ratings of comfort and habit. However, the linearly increasing trend for task difficulty and feeling of risk described by the previous research was not observed: instead the findings of this experiment support a threshold effect where ratings of risk (feeling of and chance of loss of control/collision), difficulty, effort, and comfort go through a period of stability and only start to increase once a certain threshold has been crossed. It is within the period of stability where subjective experience of risk and difficulty is low, or absent, that drivers generally prefer to operate.

  20. The Next Generation of Risk Assessment Multi-Year Study—Highlights of Findings, Applications to Risk Assessment, and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cote, Ila; Andersen, Melvin E.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Barone, Stanley; Birnbaum, Linda S.; Boekelheide, Kim; Bois, Frederic Y.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Crofton, Kevin M.; DeVito, Michael; Devlin, Robert B.; Edwards, Stephen W.; Guyton, Kathryn Z.; Hattis, Dale; Judson, Richard S.; Knight, Derek; Krewski, Daniel; Lambert, Jason; Maull, Elizabeth Anne; Mendrick, Donna; Paoli, Gregory M.; Patel, Chirag Jagdish; Perkins, Edward J.; Poje, Gerald; Portier, Christopher J.; Rusyn, Ivan; Schulte, Paul A.; Simeonov, Anton; Smith, Martyn T.; Thayer, Kristina A.; Thomas, Russell S.; Thomas, Reuben; Tice, Raymond R.; Vandenberg, John J.; Villeneuve, Daniel L.; Wesselkamper, Scott; Whelan, Maurice; Whittaker, Christine; White, Ronald; Xia, Menghang; Yauk, Carole; Zeise, Lauren; Zhao, Jay; DeWoskin, Robert S.

    2016-01-01

    Background: The Next Generation (NexGen) of Risk Assessment effort is a multi-year collaboration among several organizations evaluating new, potentially more efficient molecular, computational, and systems biology approaches to risk assessment. This article summarizes our findings, suggests applications to risk assessment, and identifies strategic research directions. Objective: Our specific objectives were to test whether advanced biological data and methods could better inform our understanding of public health risks posed by environmental exposures. Methods: New data and methods were applied and evaluated for use in hazard identification and dose–response assessment. Biomarkers of exposure and effect, and risk characterization were also examined. Consideration was given to various decision contexts with increasing regulatory and public health impacts. Data types included transcriptomics, genomics, and proteomics. Methods included molecular epidemiology and clinical studies, bioinformatic knowledge mining, pathway and network analyses, short-duration in vivo and in vitro bioassays, and quantitative structure activity relationship modeling. Discussion: NexGen has advanced our ability to apply new science by more rapidly identifying chemicals and exposures of potential concern, helping characterize mechanisms of action that influence conclusions about causality, exposure–response relationships, susceptibility and cumulative risk, and by elucidating new biomarkers of exposure and effects. Additionally, NexGen has fostered extensive discussion among risk scientists and managers and improved confidence in interpreting and applying new data streams. Conclusions: While considerable uncertainties remain, thoughtful application of new knowledge to risk assessment appears reasonable for augmenting major scope assessments, forming the basis for or augmenting limited scope assessments, and for prioritization and screening of very data limited chemicals. Citation: Cote I

  1. Gender, risk assessment, and political ambition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet-Cushman, Jennie

    2016-01-01

    In the United States, women have long held the right to vote and can participate fully in the political process, and yet they are underrepresented at all levels of elected office. Worldwide, men's dominance in the realm of politics has also been the norm. To date, scholars have focused on supply-side and demand-side explanations of women's underrepresentation but differences in how men and women assess electoral risk (the risk involved in seeking political office) are not fully explained. To fill this gap, I explore how evolutionary theory offers insights into gendered differences in political ambition and the evaluation of electoral risk. Using the framework of life-history theory, I hypothesize that both cognitive and environmental factors in human evolution, particularly as they relate to sexual selection and social roles, have shaped the psychology of ambition in gendered ways affecting contemporary politics. Cognitive risk-assessment mechanisms evolving in the hominid line came to be expressed differently in females and males, in women and men. These gendered expressions plausibly reflect differentiable environmental pressures in the past and may help explain behaviors in and barriers to women's electoral political activity in the present. If so, then the success of efforts to increase such activity - or, regressively, to suppress it - may be better understood.

  2. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  3. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  4. Qualitative risk assessment: a conceptual context and three diverse applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elsea, K.J.; Conger, D.S.

    1992-01-01

    Risk is defined as the probability of an occurrence multiplied by the consequences of that occurrence. Such a definition implies a quantitative or at least a mathematical operation. However, qualitative uses of risk have proved useful tools in incident investigation and management decision making. This paper provides a conceptual context for qualitative risk assessment and discusses three efforts at subject organizations [an aerospace firm, a US Department of Energy weapons-related facility, and a commercial nuclear reactor] that have applied qualitative risk techniques for different uses and with different results. A lessons-learned section summarizes and provides future direction

  5. Risk management on nuclear power plant. Application of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, Shigeo

    2003-01-01

    In U.S.A., nuclear safety regulation is moving to risk-informed regulation (RIR), so necessity of a standard to provide contents of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) constructing its roots has been discussed for a long time. In 1998, the Committee on Nuclear Risk Management (CNRM) of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) began to investigate the standard, of which last edition was published as the Standard for Probabilistic Risk Management for Nuclear Power Plant Applications: RA-S-2002 (PRMA) on April, 2002. As in the Committee, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), electric power companies, national institutes, PRA specialists, and so on took parts to carry out many discussions with full energies of participants on risk management in U.S.A., the standard was finished after about four years' efforts. In U.S.A., risk management having already used PRA is successfully practiced, U.S.A. is at a stage with more advancing steps of the risk management than Japan is. Here was described on the standard of PRA and a concrete method of the risk management carried out at nuclear power stations. (G.K.)

  6. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment methodology and results summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Atkinson, S.A.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1992-01-01

    The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Level 1 report documents a comprehensive and state-of-the-art study to establish and reduce the risk associated with operation of the ATR, expressed as a mean frequency of fuel damage. The ATR Level 1 PRA effort is unique and outstanding because of its consistent and state-of-the-art treatment of all facets of the risk study, its comprehensive and cost-effective risk reduction effort while the risk baseline was being established, and its thorough and comprehensive documentation. The PRA includes many improvements to the state-of-the-art, including the following: establishment of a comprehensive generic data base for component failures, treatment of initiating event frequencies given significant plant improvements in recent years, performance of efficient identification and screening of fire and flood events using code-assisted vital area analysis, identification and treatment of significant seismic-fire-flood-wind interactions, and modeling of large loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) and experiment loop ruptures leading to direct damage of the ATR core. 18 refs

  7. Assessing the bioavailability and risk from metal-contaminated ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exposure to contaminated soil and dust is an important pathway in human health risk assessment. Physical and chemical characteristics, as well as biological factors, determine the bioaccessibility/bioavailability of soil and dust contaminants. Within a single sample, contamination may arise from multiple sources of toxic elements that may exist as different forms (species) which impact bioavailability. In turn, the bioaccessibility/bioavailability of soil and dust contaminants has a direct impact on human health risk assessment and risk management practices. Novel research efforts focusing on development and application of in vitro and in vivo methods to measure the bioaccessibility/bioavailability of metal contaminated soils have advanced in the past few years. The objective of this workshop was to focus on recent developments in assessing the bioaccessibility/bioavailability of arsenic contaminated soils, metal contamination in urban residences in Canada and potential children’s exposures to toxic elements in house dust, a community-based study known as the West Oakland Residential Lead Assessment , studies of the bioavailability of soil cadmium, chromium, nickel and mercury and human exposures to contaminated Brownfield soils. These presentations covered issues related to human health and bioavailability along with the most recent studies on community participation in assessing metal contamination, studies of exposures to residential contamination, and

  8. The Role of Cumulative Risk Assessment in Decisions about Environmental Justice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken Sexton

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There is strong presumptive evidence that people living in poverty and certain racial and ethnic groups bear a disproportionate burden of environmental health risk. Many have argued that conducting formal assessments of the health risk experienced by affected communities is both unnecessary and counterproductive—that instead of analyzing the situation our efforts should be devoted to fixing obvious problems and rectifying observable wrongs. We contend that formal assessment of cumulative health risks from combined effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors is a valuable tool to aid decision makers in choosing risk management options that are effective, efficient, and equitable. If used properly, cumulative risk assessment need not impair decision makers’ discretion, nor should it be used as an excuse for doing nothing in the face of evident harm. Good policy decisions require more than good intentions; they necessitate analysis of risk-related information along with careful consideration of economic issues, ethical and moral principles, legal precedents, political realities, cultural beliefs, societal values, and bureaucratic impediments. Cumulative risk assessment can provide a systematic and impartial means for informing policy decisions about environmental justice.

  9. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  10. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  11. Computer-Aided Nodule Assessment and Risk Yield Risk Management of Adenocarcinoma: The Future of Imaging?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Finbar; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Raghunath, Sushravya M; Boland, Jennifer M; Karwoski, Ronald A; Maldonado, Fabien; Bartholmai, Brian J; Peikert, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    Increased clinical use of chest high-resolution computed tomography results in increased identification of lung adenocarcinomas and persistent subsolid opacities. However, these lesions range from very indolent to extremely aggressive tumors. Clinically relevant diagnostic tools to noninvasively risk stratify and guide individualized management of these lesions are lacking. Research efforts investigating semiquantitative measures to decrease interrater and intrarater variability are emerging, and in some cases steps have been taken to automate this process. However, many such methods currently are still suboptimal, require validation and are not yet clinically applicable. The computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield software application represents a validated tool for the automated, quantitative, and noninvasive tool for risk stratification of adenocarcinoma lung nodules. Computer-aided nodule assessment and risk yield correlates well with consensus histology and postsurgical patient outcomes, and therefore may help to guide individualized patient management, for example, in identification of nodules amenable to radiological surveillance, or in need of adjunctive therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Perspectives and reconciliation of viewpoints on risk assessment issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, C.F.; Cohen, J.J.

    1980-01-01

    It is important to recognize the distinction between risk assessment and its components which include risk analysis, perspectives study, and decision analysis. Divergence of opinion within the scientific community as well as the public at large is a characteristic of issues related to nuclear power. The divergent opinions can largely be characterized as either optimistic or pessimistic in nature. Reconciliation of divergent viewpoints presents some difficult challenges. It is doubtful that issues which have an emotional or philosophical basis can be resolved through technical efforts. Public education on the technical issues might prove helpful

  13. Multi-hazard national-level risk assessment in Africa using global approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Stuart; Jongman, Brenden; Simpson, Alanna; Murnane, Richard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years Sub-Saharan Africa has been characterized by unprecedented opportunity for transformation and sustained growth. However, natural disasters such as droughts, floods, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions and extreme temperatures cause significant economic and human losses, and major development challenges. Quantitative disaster risk assessments are an important basis for governments to understand disaster risk in their country, and to develop effective risk management and risk financing solutions. However, the data-scarce nature of many Sub-Saharan African countries as well as a lack of financing for risk assessments has long prevented detailed analytics. Recent advances in globally applicable disaster risk modelling practices and data availability offer new opportunities. In December 2013 the European Union approved a € 60 million contribution to support the development of an analytical basis for risk financing and to accelerate the effective implementation of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction. The World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) was selected as the implementing partner of the Program for Result Area 5: the "Africa Disaster Risk Assessment and Financing Program." As part of this effort, the GFDRR is overseeing the production of national-level multi-hazard risk profiles for a range of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, using a combination of national and global datasets and state-of-the-art hazard and risk assessment methodologies. In this presentation, we will highlight the analytical approach behind these assessments, and show results for the first five countries for which the assessment has been completed (Kenya, Uganda, Senegal, Niger and Ethiopia). The presentation will also demonstrate the visualization of the risk assessments into understandable and visually attractive risk profile documents.

  14. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-15

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  15. Risk analysis within environmental impact assessment of proposed construction activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeleňáková, Martina; Zvijáková, Lenka

    2017-01-01

    Environmental impact assessment is an important process, prior to approval of the investment plan, providing a detailed examination of the likely and foreseeable impacts of proposed construction activity on the environment. The objective of this paper is to develop a specific methodology for the analysis and evaluation of environmental impacts of selected constructions – flood protection structures using risk analysis methods. The application of methodology designed for the process of environmental impact assessment will develop assumptions for further improvements or more effective implementation and performance of this process. The main objective of the paper is to improve the implementation of the environmental impact assessment process. Through the use of risk analysis methods in environmental impact assessment process, the set objective has been achieved. - Highlights: This paper is informed by an effort to develop research with the aim of: • Improving existing qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing the impacts • A better understanding of relations between probabilities and consequences • Methodology for the EIA of flood protection constructions based on risk analysis • Creative approaches in the search for environmentally friendly proposed activities.

  16. Engineering measures and risk assessment against fault displacement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narabayashi, Tadashi; Okamoto, Koji; Dodo, Takashi; Kamiya, Masanobu

    2017-01-01

    A special committee on 'assessment on fault activities and engineering risk' was established at the Japan Atomic Energy Society. With a participation of the Japan Society of Maintenology, a study group on nuclear safety regulations was established at the Japan Society of Maintenology, and this theme has been examined. Among the technics for evaluating the effects of fault displacement on nuclear facilities, the concept of application of the safety margin evaluation method is shown. By applying this method, it is possible to evaluate nuclear safety against fault displacement, and it is also possible to obtain risk information such as the conditions of facilities and safety functions (retention or loss) as well as the safety margin against core damage, including the event exceeding prediction. Thus, it is possible to verify the effectiveness of accident management and to make decisions for further countermeasures to reduce risk through using the obtained risk information. The countermeasures prepared for large scale damage can also be effectively utilized. It is necessary not only the fault displacement targeted in this paper, but also the results of risk assessment obtained by safety margin assessment etc. are reflected on the improvement of accident management at the site, education and training, and assumption of various events and desk training, and are linked to safety improvement. Efforts for encouraging these actions are also required. (A.O.)

  17. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  18. A Risk Assessment System with Automatic Extraction of Event Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capet, Philippe; Delavallade, Thomas; Nakamura, Takuya; Sandor, Agnes; Tarsitano, Cedric; Voyatzi, Stavroula

    In this article we describe the joint effort of experts in linguistics, information extraction and risk assessment to integrate EventSpotter, an automatic event extraction engine, into ADAC, an automated early warning system. By detecting as early as possible weak signals of emerging risks ADAC provides a dynamic synthetic picture of situations involving risk. The ADAC system calculates risk on the basis of fuzzy logic rules operated on a template graph whose leaves are event types. EventSpotter is based on a general purpose natural language dependency parser, XIP, enhanced with domain-specific lexical resources (Lexicon-Grammar). Its role is to automatically feed the leaves with input data.

  19. Baseline ecological risk assessment Salmon Site, Lamar County, Mississippi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-04-01

    The Salmon Site (SS), formerly the Tatum Dome Test Site, located in Mississippi was the site of two nuclear and two gas explosion tests conducted between 1964 and 1970. A consequence of these testing activities is that radionuclides were released into the salt dome, where they are presently contained. During reentry drilling and other site activities, incidental liquid and solid wastes that contained radioactivity were generated, resulting in some soil, ground water and equipment contamination. As part of the remedial investigation effort, a Baseline Ecological Risk Assessment was conducted at the SS. The purpose is to gauge ecological and other environmental impacts attributable to past activities at the former test facility. The results of this facility-specific baseline risk assessment are presented in this document

  20. Baseline ecological risk assessment Salmon Site, Lamar County, Mississippi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-04-01

    The Salmon Site (SS), formerly the Tatum Dome Test Site, located in Mississippi was the site of two nuclear and two gas explosion tests conducted between 1964 and 1970. A consequence of these testing activities is that radionuclides were released into the salt dome, where they are presently contained. During reentry drilling and other site activities, incidental liquid and solid wastes that contained radioactivity were generated, resulting in some soil, ground water and equipment contamination. As part of the remedial investigation effort, a Baseline Ecological Risk Assessment was conducted at the SS. The purpose is to gauge ecological and other environmental impacts attributable to past activities at the former test facility. The results of this facility-specific baseline risk assessment are presented in this document.

  1. Surging Seas Risk Finder: A Tool for Local-Scale Flood Risk Assessments in Coastal Cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulp, S. A.; Strauss, B.

    2015-12-01

    Local decision makers in coastal cities require accurate, accessible, and thorough assessments of flood exposure risk within their individual municipality, in their efforts to mitigate against damage due to future sea level rise. To fill this need, we have developed Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, an interactive data toolkit which presents our sea level rise and storm surge analysis for every coastal town, city, county, and state within the USA. Using this tool, policy makers can easily zoom in on their local place of interest to receive a detailed flood risk assessment, which synthesizes a wide range of features including total population, socially vulnerable population, housing, property value, road miles, power plants, schools, hospitals, and many other critical facilities. Risk Finder can also be used to identify specific points of interest in danger of exposure at different flood levels. Additionally, this tool provides localized storm surge probabilities and sea level rise projections at tidal gauges along the coast, so that users can quickly understand the risk of flooding in their area over the coming decades.

  2. Tackling Biocomplexity with Meta-models for Species Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip J. Nyhus

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available We describe results of a multi-year effort to strengthen consideration of the human dimension into endangered species risk assessments and to strengthen research capacity to understand biodiversity risk assessment in the context of coupled human-natural systems. A core group of social and biological scientists have worked with a network of more than 50 individuals from four countries to develop a conceptual framework illustrating how human-mediated processes influence biological systems and to develop tools to gather, translate, and incorporate these data into existing simulation models. A central theme of our research focused on (1 the difficulties often encountered in identifying and securing diverse bodies of expertise and information that is necessary to adequately address complex species conservation issues; and (2 the development of quantitative simulation modeling tools that could explicitly link these datasets as a way to gain deeper insight into these issues. To address these important challenges, we promote a "meta-modeling" approach where computational links are constructed between discipline-specific models already in existence. In this approach, each model can function as a powerful stand-alone program, but interaction between applications is achieved by passing data structures describing the state of the system between programs. As one example of this concept, an integrated meta-model of wildlife disease and population biology is described. A goal of this effort is to improve science-based capabilities for decision making by scientists, natural resource managers, and policy makers addressing environmental problems in general, and focusing on biodiversity risk assessment in particular.

  3. Public transport risk assessment through fault tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Yaghoubpour

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study focused on the public transport risk assessment in District one of ​​Tehran through Fault Tree Analysis involving the three criteria of human, vehicle and road in Haddon matrix. In fact, it examined the factors contributing to the occurrence of road accidents at several urban black spots within District 1. Relying on road safety checklists and survey of experts, this study made an effort to help urban managers to assess the risks in the public transport and prevent road accidents. Finally, the risk identification and assessment of public transport in District one yielded several results to answer the research questions. The hypotheses analysis suggested that safety issues involved in public transport are concerned by urban managers. The key reactive measures are investigation of accidents, identification of causes and correction of black spots. In addition to high costs, however, the reactive measures give rise to multiple operational problems such as traffic navigation and guaranteeing user safety in every operation. The case study highlighted the same fact. The macro-level management in the metropolis of Tehran is critical. The urban road casualties and losses can be curtailed by preventive measures such as continuous assessment of road safety.

  4. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  5. Feasibility assessment of a risk-based approach to technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atefi, B.; Gallagher, D.W.

    1991-05-01

    To assess the potential use of risk and reliability techniques for improving the effectiveness of the technical specifications to control plant operational risk, the Technical Specifications Branch of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission initiated an effort to identify and evaluate alternative risk-based approaches that could bring greater risk perspective to these requirements. In the first phase four alternative approaches were identified and their characteristics were analyzed. Among these, the risk-based approach to technical specifications is the most promising approach for controlling plant operational risk using technical specifications. The second phase of the study concentrated on detailed characteristics of the real time risk-based approach. It is concluded that a real time risk-based approach to technical specifications has the potential to improve both plant safety and availability. 33 figs., 5 figs., 6 tabs

  6. Risks and risk assessment according to British legislation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieweg, K.

    1980-01-01

    The most important rules of the large number of legal regulations and other norms relating to risk control of technical installations discussed as far as their approach is quantitative: the regulations of the Health and Safety at Work Act of 1974, of the Factories Act of 1961, the Hazardous Installations (Notification and Survey) Regulation, the Canvey-Island Study, regulations referring to Atomic Energy Law and the administrative practice, legal regulations in the field of navigation, regulations concerning planning legislation including the Windscale-Study. In Great Britain, the power of decision in the field of technical safety has been clearly assigned to the administrative authorities. The legislature refrained from going into details in the stipulation of legal regulations, judicial control has not been provided for, or has only little relevance in practice. The prevailing goal is to reach decisions by consensus, taking every effort to solve conflicts of interest by mutual agreements. Methods and criteria in risk assessment have been modified according to technological knowledge and developments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  7. Promise assessment: A corollary to risk assessment for characterizing benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sholtis, J.A. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Decisions involving the use of hazardous technologies are often made based on risk-benefit considerations. This is the case for U.S. space mission use of nuclear power and propulsion systems, where launch decisions are made within the office of the President. A great deal of time and effort is spent characterizing the risk for each nuclear-powered space mission. However, this is not so for benefits, even though they are no less important. To correct this situation, a new technical term--promise--is defined, and a new methodology--promise assessment--is proposed. This paper introduces and advances this concept, addresses its future application, as a tool, can be developed sufficiently and applied to methodically identify and characterized benefits. Further, it can introduce a degree of balance when judgments concerning the use of hazardous technologies are involved

  8. Risk assessment framework of fate and transport models applied to hazardous waste sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, S.T.

    1993-06-01

    Risk assessment is an increasingly important part of the decision-making process in the cleanup of hazardous waste sites. Despite guidelines from regulatory agencies and considerable research efforts to reduce uncertainties in risk assessments, there are still many issues unanswered. This paper presents new research results pertaining to fate and transport models, which will be useful in estimating exposure concentrations and will help reduce uncertainties in risk assessment. These developments include an approach for (1) estimating the degree of emissions and concentration levels of volatile pollutants during the use of contaminated water, (2) absorption of organic chemicals in the soil matrix through the skin, and (3) steady state, near-field, contaminant concentrations in the aquifer within a waste boundary

  9. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  10. Risk assessment of chemicals: A central European perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bencko, Vladimir [Institute of Hygiene, 1st Medical Faculty, Charles University, Prague (Czech Republic); Ungvary, Gyoergy [National Institute of Occupational Health, Budapest (Hungary)

    1992-07-01

    During the last four decades in the Czech and Slovak federal Republic (CSFR) and Hungary, similar to the previous Soviet Union and all the Central and East European countries the prevention of the adverse health effects of chemicals in occupational and environmental settings, drinking water and food of population was intended to be achieved by determination and compulsory observance of hygienic limit values. From recent political developments it can be expected that due to the decay of the former Warsaw Pact and the related Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) the next development of risk assessment will reflect that new situation. The OECD principles of toxicity testing and risk assessment of exposure to chemicals will be sooner or later accepted in principle in the framework of a general economic integration of Central and Eastern European countries with EEC. During the 80s there was a growing feeling of the necessity to harmonize the activities of OECD and CMEA countries in the field of toxicological methodology and approaches to risk assessment of chemicals because of the growing production and mutual trade including transport of industrial and agricultural chemicals. As a contributory factor supporting this effort there was growing cross boundary air and river pollution in Europe. The former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance was an intergovernmental organization of 10 countries with a number of other countries and agencies cooperating with it in its work. CMEA as, and OECD still is concerned primarily with economic development but both had stated commitments to protecting human health and the environment. To help to mutual understanding and to promote harmonization of above mentioned obligations and commitments of the both organizations United Nation Environment Programme's International Registry of Potentially Toxic Chemicals and The International Programme on Chemical Safety (UNEP/IRPTC/IPCS) convened an International Consultation on

  11. Risk assessment of chemicals: A central European perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bencko, Vladimir; Gyoergy Ungvary

    1992-01-01

    During the last four decades in the Czech and Slovak federal Republic (CSFR) and Hungary, similar to the previous Soviet Union and all the Central and East European countries the prevention of the adverse health effects of chemicals in occupational and environmental settings, drinking water and food of population was intended to be achieved by determination and compulsory observance of hygienic limit values. From recent political developments it can be expected that due to the decay of the former Warsaw Pact and the related Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) the next development of risk assessment will reflect that new situation. The OECD principles of toxicity testing and risk assessment of exposure to chemicals will be sooner or later accepted in principle in the framework of a general economic integration of Central and Eastern European countries with EEC. During the 80s there was a growing feeling of the necessity to harmonize the activities of OECD and CMEA countries in the field of toxicological methodology and approaches to risk assessment of chemicals because of the growing production and mutual trade including transport of industrial and agricultural chemicals. As a contributory factor supporting this effort there was growing cross boundary air and river pollution in Europe. The former Council for Mutual Economic Assistance was an intergovernmental organization of 10 countries with a number of other countries and agencies cooperating with it in its work. CMEA as, and OECD still is concerned primarily with economic development but both had stated commitments to protecting human health and the environment. To help to mutual understanding and to promote harmonization of above mentioned obligations and commitments of the both organizations United Nation Environment Programme's International Registry of Potentially Toxic Chemicals and The International Programme on Chemical Safety (UNEP/IRPTC/IPCS) convened an International Consultation on

  12. Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Risk (NUCLARR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilmore, W.E.; Blackman, H.S.; Ryan, T.G.

    1986-01-01

    The Nuclear Computerized Library for Assessing Reactor Risk (NUCLARR) program is a multiyear effort sponsored by the NRC and is being conducted at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). The goal of this program is to establish and operate computerized data base management tools for the human reliability data bank specification developed by Comer and Donovan. The NRC and the risk analysis community recognized that implementing a fully functional library would not be feasible, or practical, without the aid of computerized tools for management and manipulation of its data sources. The end users of the NUCLARR can be classified into three categories according to specific needs. The first category is those users interested in reviewing individual data sources for a given situation. The second category of users selects multiple data sources for a specific case, summarizing the information, and performing comparative studies. The last category of users interfaces the NUCLARR with other programming applications, such as other data banks, and simulation models of risk assessment. Project status is provided in the paper

  13. Holistic approach to multi-unit site risk assessment: Status and Issues

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Inn Seock; Jang, Mi Suk; Kim, Seoung Rae [Nuclear Engineering Service and Solution Company (NESS), Daejeon Business Agency, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-03-15

    The events at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in March 2011 point out, among other matters, that concurrent accidents at multiple units of a site can occur in reality. Although site risk has been deterministically considered to some extent in nuclear power plant siting and design, potential occurrence of multi-unit accident sequences at a site was not investigated in sufficient detail thus far in the nuclear power community. Therefore, there is considerable worldwide interest and research effort directed toward multi-unit site risk assessment, especially in the countries with high-density nuclear-power-plant sites such as Korea. As the technique of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been successfully applied to evaluate the risk associated with operation of nuclear power plants in the past several decades, the PSA having primarily focused on single-unit risks is now being extended to the multi-unit PSA. In this paper we first characterize the site risk with explicit consideration of the risk associated with spent fuel pools as well as the reactor risks. The status of multi-unit risk assessment is discussed next, followed by a description of the emerging issues relevant to the multi-unit risk evaluation from a practical standpoint.

  14. Holistic approach to multi-unit site risk assessment: Status and Issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Inn Seock; Jang, Mi Suk; Kim, Seoung Rae

    2017-01-01

    The events at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in March 2011 point out, among other matters, that concurrent accidents at multiple units of a site can occur in reality. Although site risk has been deterministically considered to some extent in nuclear power plant siting and design, potential occurrence of multi-unit accident sequences at a site was not investigated in sufficient detail thus far in the nuclear power community. Therefore, there is considerable worldwide interest and research effort directed toward multi-unit site risk assessment, especially in the countries with high-density nuclear-power-plant sites such as Korea. As the technique of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has been successfully applied to evaluate the risk associated with operation of nuclear power plants in the past several decades, the PSA having primarily focused on single-unit risks is now being extended to the multi-unit PSA. In this paper we first characterize the site risk with explicit consideration of the risk associated with spent fuel pools as well as the reactor risks. The status of multi-unit risk assessment is discussed next, followed by a description of the emerging issues relevant to the multi-unit risk evaluation from a practical standpoint

  15. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  16. Using posts to an online social network to assess fishing effort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Dustin R.; Chizinski, Christopher J.; Eskridge, Kent M.; Pope, Kevin L

    2014-01-01

    Fisheries management has evolved from reservoir to watershed management, creating a need to simultaneously gather information within and across interacting reservoirs. However, costs to gather information on the fishing effort on multiple reservoirs using traditional creel methodology are often prohibitive. Angler posts about reservoirs online provide a unique medium to test hypotheses on the distribution of fishing pressure. We show that the activity on an online fishing social network is related to fishing effort and can be used to facilitate management goals. We searched the Nebraska Fish and Game Association Fishing Forum for all references from April 2009 to December 2010 to 19 reservoirs that comprise the Salt Valley regional fishery in southeastern Nebraska. The number of posts was positively related to monthly fishing effort on a regional scale, with individual reservoirs having the most annual posts also having the most annual fishing effort. Furthermore, this relationship held temporally. Online fishing social networks provide the potential to assess effort on larger spatial scales than currently feasible.

  17. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  18. Harmonization of international risk assessment protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toyofuku, Hajime . E-mail toyofuku@nihs.go.jp

    2006-01-01

    For over centuries developments in food production and new food safety management systems in most developed countries have been perceived by many to be efficient in the prevention of food-borne disease. Nevertheless a number of problems remain dominant, one of these being the high level of food-borne microbiological disease which seems, for some pathogens, to have increased over the last decades. The development of an interdisciplinary approach with direct interaction between surveillance and risk analysis systems is described as a potential basis for improved prevention of food-borne disease. Quantitative microbiological risk assessment is a relatively new scientific approach, able to link data from food within the entire food chain and the various data on human disease to provide a clear estimation of risk. Today food safety is one of the WHOs top eleven priorities; the Organization calls for more systematic and aggressive steps to be taken to reduce significantly the risk of microbiological food-borne diseases. Dealing with this challenge is one of the major challenges for the 21st century in regard to food safety, implying a significant re-direction of food microbiology efforts in many parts of the world

  19. Taking risk assessment and management to the next level - 59395

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, Jerel; Morton, Russel Lee; Castillo, Carlos; Dyer, George; Johnson, Natalie; McSwain, James T.; Kruskall, Gary Nick

    2012-01-01

    Document available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell into two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact

  20. Comparative assessment of world research efforts on magnetic confinement fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKenney, B.L.; McGrain, M.; Rutherford, P.H.

    1990-02-01

    This report presents a comparative assessment of the world's four major research efforts on magnetic confinement fusion, including a comparison of the capabilities in the Soviet Union, the European Community (Western Europe), Japan, and the United States. A comparative evaluation is provided in six areas: tokamak confinement; alternate confinement approaches; plasma technology and engineering; and fusion computations. The panel members are involved actively in fusion-related research, and have extensive experience in previous assessments and reviews of the world's four major fusion programs. Although the world's four major fusion efforts are roughly comparable in overall capabilities, two conclusions of this report are inescapable. First, the Soviet fusion effort is presently the weakest of the four programs in most areas of the assessment. Second, if present trends continue, the United States, once unambiguously the world leader in fusion research, will soon lose its position of leadership to the West European and Japanese fusion programs. Indeed, before the middle 1990s, the upgraded large-tokamak facilities, JT-60U (Japan) and JET (Western Europe), are likely to explore plasma conditions and operating regimes well beyond the capabilities of the TFTR tokamak (United States). In addition, if present trends continue in the areas of fusion nuclear technology and materials, and plasma technology and materials, and plasma technology development, the capabilities of Japan and Western Europe in these areas (both with regard to test facilities and fusion-specific industrial capabilities) will surpass those of the United States by a substantial margin before the middle 1990s

  1. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  2. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  3. Development of Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) for Physical Protection System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Sung Soon; Seo, Hyung Min; Yoo, Ho Sik

    2010-01-01

    A physical protection system (PPS) integrates people, procedures and equipment for the protection of assets or facilities against theft, sabotage or other malevolent human attacks. Among critical facilities, nuclear facilities and nuclear weapon sites require the highest level of PPS. After the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, international communities, including the IAEA, have made substantial efforts to protect nuclear material and nuclear facilities. The international flow on nuclear security is using the concept or risk assessment. The concept of risk assessment is firstly devised by nuclear safety people. They considered nuclear safety including its possible risk, which is the frequency of failure and possible consequence. Nuclear security people also considers security risk, which is the frequency of threat action, vulnerability, and consequences. The concept means that we should protect more when the credible threat exists and the possible radiological consequence is high. Even if there are several risk assessment methods of nuclear security, the application needs the help of tools because of a lot of calculation. It's also hard to find tools for whole phase of risk assessment. Several codes exist for the part of risk assessment. SAVI are used for vulnerability of PPS. Vital area identification code is used for consequence analysis. We are developing Integrated Code for Risk Assessment (INCORIA) to apply risk assessment methods for nuclear facilities. INCORIA evaluates PP-KINAC measures and generation tools for threat scenario. PP-KINAC is risk assessment measures for physical protection system developed by Hosik Yoo and is easy to apply. A threat scenario tool is used to generate threat scenario, which is used as one of input value to PP-KINAC measures

  4. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  5. A probabilistic assessment of health risks associated with short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitfield, R.G; Biller, W.F.; Jusko, M.J.; Keisler, J.M.

    1996-06-01

    The work described in this report is part of a larger risk assessment sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Earlier efforts developed exposure-response relationships for acute health effects among populations engaged in heavy exertion. Those efforts also developed a probabilistic national ambient air quality standards exposure model and a general methodology for integrating probabilistic exposure-response relation- ships and exposure estimates to calculate overall risk results. Recently published data make it possible to model additional health endpoints (for exposure at moderate exertion), including hospital admissions. New air quality and exposure estimates for alternative national ambient air quality standards for ozone are combined with exposure-response models to produce the risk results for hospital admissions and acute health effects. Sample results explain the methodology and introduce risk output formats.

  6. A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Richard J.; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N.; Watson, Geoff V. R.; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N.; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W.

    2018-06-01

    Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  7. A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Darch, Geoff; Paulson, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712793

  8. Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoe M. King

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual’s intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of

  9. Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Zoe M; Henshel, Diane S; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

    2018-01-01

    Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual's intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing malicious

  10. Characterizing and Measuring Maliciousness for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Zoe M.; Henshel, Diane S.; Flora, Liberty; Cains, Mariana G.; Hoffman, Blaine; Sample, Char

    2018-01-01

    Cyber attacks have been increasingly detrimental to networks, systems, and users, and are increasing in number and severity globally. To better predict system vulnerabilities, cybersecurity researchers are developing new and more holistic approaches to characterizing cybersecurity system risk. The process must include characterizing the human factors that contribute to cyber security vulnerabilities and risk. Rationality, expertise, and maliciousness are key human characteristics influencing cyber risk within this context, yet maliciousness is poorly characterized in the literature. There is a clear absence of literature pertaining to human factor maliciousness as it relates to cybersecurity and only limited literature relating to aspects of maliciousness in other disciplinary literatures, such as psychology, sociology, and law. In an attempt to characterize human factors as a contribution to cybersecurity risk, the Cybersecurity Collaborative Research Alliance (CSec-CRA) has developed a Human Factors risk framework. This framework identifies the characteristics of an attacker, user, or defender, all of whom may be adding to or mitigating against cyber risk. The maliciousness literature and the proposed maliciousness assessment metrics are discussed within the context of the Human Factors Framework and Ontology. Maliciousness is defined as the intent to harm. Most maliciousness cyber research to date has focused on detecting malicious software but fails to analyze an individual’s intent to do harm to others by deploying malware or performing malicious attacks. Recent efforts to identify malicious human behavior as it relates to cybersecurity, include analyzing motives driving insider threats as well as user profiling analyses. However, cyber-related maliciousness is neither well-studied nor is it well understood because individuals are not forced to expose their true selves to others while performing malicious attacks. Given the difficulty of interviewing

  11. Efforts Toward an Early Warning Crop Monitor for Countries at Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budde, M. E.; Verdin, J. P.; Barker, B.; Humber, M. L.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Magadzire, T.; Galu, G.; Rodriguez, M.; Jayanthi, H.

    2015-12-01

    Assessing crop growing conditions is a crucial aspect of monitoring food security in the developing world. One of the core components of the Group on Earth Observations - Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) targets monitoring Countries at Risk (component 3). The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has a long history of utilizing remote sensing and crop modeling to address food security threats in the form of drought, floods, pest infestation, and climate change in some of the world's most at risk countries. FEWS NET scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center and the University of Maryland Department of Geography have undertaken efforts to address component 3, by promoting the development of a collaborative Early Warning Crop Monitor (EWCM) that would specifically address Countries at Risk. A number of organizations utilize combinations of satellite earth observations, field campaigns, network partner inputs, and crop modeling techniques to monitor crop conditions throughout the world. Agencies such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) provide agricultural monitoring information and reporting across a broad number of areas at risk and in many cases, organizations routinely report on the same countries. The latter offers an opportunity for collaboration on crop growing conditions among agencies. The reduction of uncertainty and achievement of consensus will help strengthen confidence in decisions to commit resources for mitigation of acute food insecurity and support for resilience and development programs. In addition, the development of a collaborative global EWCM will provide each of the partner agencies with the ability to quickly gather crop condition information for areas where they may not typically work or have access to local networks. Using a framework

  12. Bruce NGS B risk assessment (BBRA) peer review process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaasalainen, S.; Crocker, W.P.; Webb, W.A.

    2001-01-01

    Risk-informed decision making is considered an effective approach to managing the risk of nuclear power plant operation in a competitive market. Hence, increased reliance on the station probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) to provide risk perspective inputs is inevitable. With increased reliance on the PRAs it is imperative that PRAs have the characteristics necessary to provide the required information. Recognizing the increased requirements on nuclear power plant PRAs the nuclear industry in the United States has expended significant effort over the past few years defining the required characteristics of a PRA for various applications. More recently several owners groups have drafted guidelines for PRA certification and several U.S. utilities have had their PRAs certified. During the year 2000 Ontario Power Generation, Nuclear (OPG,N) subjected the PRA of one of its stations to the U.S. style certification process. The PRA selected for this process was the Bruce B Risk Assessment (BBRA). BBRA was chosen for this process since it is the first OPG, N PRA to be used for risk-informed applications. However, the strengths of the BBRA identified from the certification process and the lessons learned are also largely applicable to the other OPG, N plant PRAs due to the use of similar methods and tools

  13. TRECII: a computer program for transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franklin, A.L.

    1980-05-01

    A risk-based fault tree analysis method has been developed at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for analysis of nuclear fuel cycle operations. This methodology was developed for the Department of Energy (DOE) as a risk analysis tool for evaluating high level waste management systems. A computer package consisting of three programs was written at that time to assist in the performance of risk assessment: ACORN (draws fault trees), MFAULT (analyzes fault trees), and RAFT (calculates risk). This methodology evaluates release consequences and estimates the frequency of occurrence of these consequences. This document describes an additional risk calculating code which can be used in conjunction with two of the three codes for transportation risk assessment. TRECII modifies the definition of risk used in RAFT (prob. x release) to accommodate release consequences in terms of fatalities. Throughout this report risk shall be defined as probability times consequences (fatalities are one possible health effect consequence). This methodology has been applied to a variety of energy material transportation systems. Typically the material shipped has been radioactive, although some adaptation to fossil fuels has occurred. The approach is normally applied to truck or train transport systems with some adaptation to pipelines and aircraft. TRECII is designed to be used primarily in conjunction with MFAULT; however, with a moderate amount of effort by the user, it can be implemented independent of the risk analysis package developed at PNL. Code description and user instructions necessary for the implementation of the TRECII program are provided

  14. SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harry, T; Manger, R; Cervino, L; Pawlicki, T

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this work was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.

  15. SU-F-T-246: Evaluation of Healthcare Failure Mode And Effect Analysis For Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harry, T [Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR (United States); University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States); Manger, R; Cervino, L; Pawlicki, T [University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the differences between the Veteran Affairs Healthcare Failure Modes and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and the AAPM Task Group 100 Failure and Effect Analysis (FMEA) risk assessment techniques in the setting of a stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) procedure were compared respectively. Understanding the differences in the techniques methodologies and outcomes will provide further insight into the applicability and utility of risk assessments exercises in radiation therapy. Methods: HFMEA risk assessment analysis was performed on a stereotactic radiosurgery procedure. A previous study from our institution completed a FMEA of our SRS procedure and the process map generated from this work was used for the HFMEA. The process of performing the HFMEA scoring was analyzed, and the results from both analyses were compared. Results: The key differences between the two risk assessments are the scoring criteria for failure modes and identifying critical failure modes for potential hazards. The general consensus among the team performing the analyses was that scoring for the HFMEA was simpler and more intuitive then the FMEA. The FMEA identified 25 critical failure modes while the HFMEA identified 39. Seven of the FMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the HFMEA and 21 of the HFMEA critical failure modes were not identified by the FMEA. HFMEA as described by the Veteran Affairs provides guidelines on which failure modes to address first. Conclusion: HFMEA is a more efficient model for identifying gross risks in a process than FMEA. Clinics with minimal staff, time and resources can benefit from this type of risk assessment to eliminate or mitigate high risk hazards with nominal effort. FMEA can provide more in depth details but at the cost of elevated effort.

  16. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  17. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  18. Individual Breast Cancer risk assessment in Underserved Populations: Integrating empirical Bioethics and Health Disparities Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Emily E.; Hoskins, Kent

    2013-01-01

    Research suggests that individual breast cancer risk assessment may improve adherence to recommended screening and prevention guidelines, thereby decreasing morbidity and mortality. Further research on the use of risk assessment models in underserved minority populations is critical to informing national public health efforts to eliminate breast cancer disparities. However, implementing individual breast cancer risk assessment in underserved patient populations raises particular ethical issues that require further examination. After reviewing these issues, we will discuss how empirical bioethics research can be integrated with health disparities research to inform the translation of research findings. Our in-progress National Cancer Institute (NCI) funded study, How Do Underserved Minority Women Think About Breast Cancer?, conducted in the context of a larger study on individual breast cancer risk assessment, is presented as a model. PMID:23124498

  19. Effect of social influence on effort-allocation for monetary rewards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilman, Jodi M; Treadway, Michael T; Curran, Max T; Calderon, Vanessa; Evins, A Eden

    2015-01-01

    Though decades of research have shown that people are highly influenced by peers, few studies have directly assessed how the value of social conformity is weighed against other types of costs and benefits. Using an effort-based decision-making paradigm with a novel social influence manipulation, we measured how social influence affected individuals' decisions to allocate effort for monetary rewards during trials with either high or low probability of receiving a reward. We found that information about the effort-allocation of peers modulated participant choices, specifically during conditions of low probability of obtaining a reward. This suggests that peer influence affects effort-based choices to obtain rewards especially under conditions of risk. This study provides evidence that people value social conformity in addition to other costs and benefits when allocating effort, and suggests that neuroeconomic studies that assess trade-offs between effort and reward should consider social environment as a factor that can influence decision-making.

  20. Effect of social influence on effort-allocation for monetary rewards.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jodi M Gilman

    Full Text Available Though decades of research have shown that people are highly influenced by peers, few studies have directly assessed how the value of social conformity is weighed against other types of costs and benefits. Using an effort-based decision-making paradigm with a novel social influence manipulation, we measured how social influence affected individuals' decisions to allocate effort for monetary rewards during trials with either high or low probability of receiving a reward. We found that information about the effort-allocation of peers modulated participant choices, specifically during conditions of low probability of obtaining a reward. This suggests that peer influence affects effort-based choices to obtain rewards especially under conditions of risk. This study provides evidence that people value social conformity in addition to other costs and benefits when allocating effort, and suggests that neuroeconomic studies that assess trade-offs between effort and reward should consider social environment as a factor that can influence decision-making.

  1. Approaches to quantitative risk assessment with applications to PP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, G.; Schaefer, A.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Experience with accidents such as Goiania in Brazil and indications of a considerable number of orphan sources suggest that improved protection would be desirable for some types of radioactive material of wide-spread use such as radiation sources for civil purposes. Regarding large potential health and economic consequences (in particular, if terrorists attacks cannot be excluded), significant costs of preventive actions, and large uncertainties about both the likelihood of occurrence and the potential consequences of PP safety and security incidents, an optimum relationship between preventive and mitigative efforts is likely to be a key issue for successful risk management in this field. Thus, possible violations of physical protection combined with threats of misuse of nuclear materials, including terrorist attack, pose considerable challenges to global security from various perspectives. In view of these challenges, recent advance in applied risk and decision analysis suggests methodological and procedural improvements in quantitative risk assessment, the demarcation of acceptable risk, and risk management. Advance is based on a recently developed model of optimal risky choice suitable for assessing and comparing the cumulative probability distribution functions attached to safety and security risks. Besides quantification of risk (e. g., in economic terms), the standardization of various risk assessment models frequently used in operations research can be approached on this basis. The paper explores possible applications of these improved methods to the safety and security management of nuclear materials, cost efficiency of risk management measures, and the establishment international safety and security standards of PP. Examples will be presented that are based on selected scenarios of misuse involving typical radioactive sources. (author)

  2. Health Risk Assessment of Groundwater Arsenic Pollution in Southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Ching-Ping

    2015-04-01

    This study investigates the risk of arsenic (As) exposure to the residents in Pingtung Plain of Taiwan, where more than 50% of people extracts groundwater to meet the drinking purpose and monitoring groundwater shows that a considerable portion of groundwater has an As concentration of more than safe drinking water guideline of 10μg/L-1. Exposure and risk assessment are carried out in accordance with the provisional daily intake (PTDI) recommended by the FAO/WHO as well as hazard quotient and cancer risk standards based on the US Environmental Protection Agency. The variability of body weights and drinking water consumption scenarios are considered in exposure and risk assessment. Results shows that daily intake exceeds 2.1μg day-1 kg-1 BW for 2% of population, HQ level above unity for 20% , and can risk greater than 10-6 for 80%. These results implies that drinking water directly from groundwater will place many people at the risk of exposure and any efforts to supply safe drinking water is imperial for governing in order to protect the human health of inhabitants in Pingtung Plain.

  3. Risk Aversion and Effort in an Incentive Pay Scheme with Multiplicative Noise: Theory and Experimental Evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N.V. Zubanov (Nick)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe application of the classical "linear" model of incentive pay to the case when the noise is multiplicative to effort generates two predictions for a given strength of incentives: 1) more risk-averse workers will put in less effort, and 2) setting a performance target will weaken the

  4. Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuramochi, Takeshi; Asuka, Jusen; Fekete, Hanna; Tamura, Kentaro; Höhne, Niklas

    2016-01-01

    This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2 °C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay

  5. Including Performance Assessments in Accountability Systems: A Review of Scale-Up Efforts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Rosann

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this literature and field review is to understand previous efforts at scaling up performance assessments for use across districts and states. Performance assessments benefit students and teachers by providing more opportunities for students to demonstrate their knowledge and complex skills, by providing teachers with better…

  6. Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

    1994-08-01

    The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

  7. Risk assessment of cryogenic installations – implementation, applicability of methodologies and challenges at CERN

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    For the safe design of a cryogenic installation, it is essential to carry out a comprehensive hazard identification and risk estimate in order to put in place the necessary control measures for an adequate risk mitigation. According to CERN Safety Rules, it is mandatory that the organic unit owning a cryogenic facility conducts and documents a risk assessment. This requirement is also given by the European Directive 2014/68/EU to manufacturers of pressure equipment. During the talk, some of the challenges CERN faces in the development of risk assessments across the broad array of activities involving cryogenic equipment in the organization will be discussed. Challenges such as the choice of the best-suited risk assessment methodology based on the features and complexity of the installation/activities, the efforts to develop tools to facilitate hazard identification, risk analysis and definition of related measures to protect the health and safety of workers, such as streamlined guidelines, forms and check...

  8. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  9. Scientific uncertainties associated with risk assessment of radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.; Fagnani, F.

    1989-05-01

    The proper use and interpretation of data pertaining to biological effects of ionizing radiations is based on a continuous effort to discuss the various assumptions and uncertainties in the process of risk assessment. In this perspective, it has been considered useful by the Committee to review critically the general scientific foundations that constitute the basic framework of data for the evaluation of health effects of radiation. This review is an attempt to identify the main sources of uncertainties, to give, when possible, an order of magnitude for their relative importance, and to clarify the principal interactions between the different steps of the process of risk quantification. The discussion has been restricted to stochastic effects and especially to cancer induction in man: observations at the cellular levels and animal and in vitro experiments have not been considered. The consequences which might result from abandoning the hypothesis of linearity have not been directly examined in this draft, especially in respect to the concept of collective dose. Since another document dealing with 'Dose-response relationships for radiation-induced cancer' is in preparation, an effort has been made to avoid any overlap by making reference to that document whenever necessary

  10. Scientific uncertainties associated with risk assessment of radiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hubert, P; Fagnani, F

    1989-05-01

    The proper use and interpretation of data pertaining to biological effects of ionizing radiations is based on a continuous effort to discuss the various assumptions and uncertainties in the process of risk assessment. In this perspective, it has been considered useful by the Committee to review critically the general scientific foundations that constitute the basic framework of data for the evaluation of health effects of radiation. This review is an attempt to identify the main sources of uncertainties, to give, when possible, an order of magnitude for their relative importance, and to clarify the principal interactions between the different steps of the process of risk quantification. The discussion has been restricted to stochastic effects and especially to cancer induction in man: observations at the cellular levels and animal and in vitro experiments have not been considered. The consequences which might result from abandoning the hypothesis of linearity have not been directly examined in this draft, especially in respect to the concept of collective dose. Since another document dealing with 'Dose-response relationships for radiation-induced cancer' is in preparation, an effort has been made to avoid any overlap by making reference to that document whenever necessary.

  11. Health risk assessment of groundwater arsenic pollution in southern Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Ching-Ping; Wang, Sheng-Wei; Kao, Yu-Hsuan; Chen, Jui-Sheng

    2016-12-01

    Residents of the Pingtung Plain, Taiwan, use groundwater for drinking. However, monitoring results showed that a considerable portion of groundwater has an As concentration higher than the safe drinking water regulation of 10 μg/L. Considering residents of the Pingtung Plain continue to use groundwater for drinking, this study attempted to evaluate the exposure and health risk from drinking groundwater. The health risk from drinking groundwater was evaluated based on the hazard quotient (HQ) and target risk (TR) established by the US Environmental Protection Agency. The results showed that the 95th percentile of HQ exceeded 1 and TR was above the safe value of threshold value of 10 -6 . To illustrate significant variability of the drinking water consumption rate and body weight of each individual, health risk assessments were also performed using a spectrum of daily water intake rate and body weight to reasonably and conservatively assess the exposure and health risk for the specific subgroups of population of the Pingtung Plain. The assessment results showed that 0.01-7.50 % of the population's HQ levels are higher than 1 and as much as 77.7-93.3 % of the population being in high cancer risk category and having a TR value >10 -6 . The TR estimation results implied that groundwater use for drinking purpose places people at risk of As exposure. The government must make great efforts to provide safe drinking water for residents of the Pingtung Plain.

  12. An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morris, J.M.

    1994-01-01

    The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

  13. Microbiological criteria for Listeria monocytogenes in foods under special consideration of risk assessment approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørrung, Birgit

    2000-01-01

    This paper shortly summarizes data related to risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes. From available data on risk assessment, it is concluded that the levels of L. monocytogenes consumed is an important factor affecting the incidence of listeriosis. Foods that do not support the growth of L....... monocytogenes are unlikely to be a source of listeriosis, whereas foods that support the growth to high levels, should be the target of risk management efforts. Based on current epidemiological information from several countries, a concentration of L. monocytogenes not exceeding 100/g of food at the time...... of L. monocytogenes in the food during prevailing storage and distribution conditions is needed....

  14. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  15. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  16. Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilkey, Kelly M.; Myers, Jerry G.; McRae, Michael P.; Griffin, Elise A.; Kallrui, Aditya S.

    2012-01-01

    The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

  17. Assessing Protective Factors for Violence Risk in U.K. General Mental Health Services Using the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haines, Alina; Brown, Andrew; Javaid, Syed Fahad; Khan, Fayyaz; Noblett, Steve; Omodunbi, Oladipupo; Sadiq, Khurram; Zaman, Wahid; Whittington, Richard

    2017-12-01

    Violence risk assessment and management are key tasks in mental health services and should be guided by validated instruments covering both risk and protective factors. This article is part of an international effort to validate the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF) for violence. The SAPROF, Historical, Clinical, Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) and the Psychopathy Checklist-Screening Version (PCL-SV) were administered in a sample of 261 patients in U.K. forensic, general inpatient, and community mental health settings. There was significant variation between these groups on SAPROF scores with fewer protective factors in the forensic group. The prospective validity of the SAPROF for nonviolence in the general inpatient and community samples was moderate (area under the curve [AUC] = .60). Adoption of the SAPROF or similar instruments as a supplement to risk-focused assessments has the potential to improve awareness of protective factors and enhance therapeutic engagement in a range of mental health services.

  18. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M.; Fink-Gremmels, J.

    2013-01-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment

  19. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: Comparative aspects and future perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dorne, J.L.C.M., E-mail: jean-lou.dorne@efsa.europa.eu [Emerging Risk Unit, Via Carlo Magno 1A, 43126 Parma (Italy); Fink-Gremmels, J. [Utrecht University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Institute for Risk Assessment Sciences, Yalelaan 104, 3584 CM Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. - Highlights: ► Principles of human and animal health risk assessment. ► Data gaps for each step of animal health risk assessment. ► Implications of animal risk assessment on human risk assessment. ► Future perspectives on chemical risk assessment.

  20. The EPA's human exposure research program for assessing cumulative risk in communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-06-01

    Communities are faced with challenges in identifying and prioritizing environmental issues, taking actions to reduce their exposures, and determining their effectiveness for reducing human health risks. Additional challenges include determining what scientific tools are available and most relevant, and understanding how to use those tools; given these barriers, community groups tend to rely more on risk perception than science. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and collaborators are developing and applying tools (models, data, methods) for enhancing cumulative risk assessments. The NERL's "Cumulative Communities Research Program" focuses on key science questions: (1) How to systematically identify and prioritize key chemical stressors within a given community?; (2) How to develop estimates of exposure to multiple stressors for individuals in epidemiologic studies?; and (3) What tools can be used to assess community-level distributions of exposures for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of risk reduction strategies? This paper provides community partners and scientific researchers with an understanding of the NERL research program and other efforts to address cumulative community risks; and key research needs and opportunities. Some initial findings include the following: (1) Many useful tools exist for components of risk assessment, but need to be developed collaboratively with end users and made more comprehensive and user-friendly for practical application; (2) Tools for quantifying cumulative risks and impact of community risk reduction activities are also needed; (3) More data are needed to assess community- and individual-level exposures, and to link exposure-related information with health effects; and (4) Additional research is needed to incorporate risk-modifying factors ("non-chemical stressors") into cumulative risk assessments. The products of this

  1. The Environmental Protection Agency's Community-Focused Exposure and Risk Screening Tool (C-FERST) and its potential use for environmental justice efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D; Barzyk, Timothy M; Smuts, Marybeth; Hammond, Davyda M; Medina-Vera, Myriam; Geller, Andrew M

    2011-12-01

    Our primary objective was to provide higher quality, more accessible science to address challenges of characterizing local-scale exposures and risks for enhanced community-based assessments and environmental decision-making. After identifying community needs, priority environmental issues, and current tools, we designed and populated the Community-Focused Exposure and Risk Screening Tool (C-FERST) in collaboration with stakeholders, following a set of defined principles, and considered it in the context of environmental justice. C-FERST is a geographic information system and resource access Web tool under development for supporting multimedia community assessments. Community-level exposure and risk research is being conducted to address specific local issues through case studies. C-FERST can be applied to support environmental justice efforts. It incorporates research to develop community-level data and modeled estimates for priority environmental issues, and other relevant information identified by communities. Initial case studies are under way to refine and test the tool to expand its applicability and transferability. Opportunities exist for scientists to address the many research needs in characterizing local cumulative exposures and risks and for community partners to apply and refine C-FERST.

  2. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  3. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  5. The Water Risks of Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracking): Key Issues from the New California Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.

    2015-12-01

    A key component of the Water-Energy Nexus is the effort over the past decade or so to quantify the volumes and form of water required for the energy fuel cycle from extraction to generation to waste disposal. The vast majority of the effort in this area has focused on the water needs of electricity generation, but other fuel-cycle components also entail significant water demands and threats to water quality. Recent work for the State of California (managed by the California Council on Science and Technology - CCST) has produced a new state-of-the-art assessment of a range of potential water risks associated with hydraulic fracturing and related oil and gas extraction, including volumetric water demands, methods of disposal of produced water, and aquifer contamination. For example, this assessment produced new information on the disposal of produced water in surface percolation pits and the potential for contamination of local groundwater (see Figure). Understanding these risks raises questions about current production and future plans to expand production, as well as tools used by state and federal agencies to manage these risks. This talk will summarize the science behind the CCST assessment and related policy recommendations for both water and energy managers.

  6. [Psychosocial stress and disease risks in occupational life. Results of international studies on the demand-control and the effort-reward imbalance models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegrist, J; Dragano, N

    2008-03-01

    Given the far-reaching changes of modern working life, psychosocial stress at work has received increased attention. Its influence on stress-related disease risks is analysed with the help of standardised measurements based on theoretical models. Two such models have gained special prominence in recent years, the demand-control model and the effort-reward imbalance model. The former model places its emphasis on a distinct combination of job characteristics, whereas the latter model's focus is on the imbalance between efforts spent and rewards received in turn. The predictive power of these models with respect to coronary or cardiovascular disease and depression was tested in a number of prospective epidemiological investigations. In summary, twofold elevated disease risks are observed. Effects on cardiovascular disease are particularly pronounced among men, whereas no gender differences are observed for depression. Additional evidence derived from experimental and ambulatory monitoring studies supplements this body of findings. Current scientific evidence justifies an increased awareness and assessment of these newly discovered occupational risks, in particular by occupational health professionals. Moreover, structural and interpersonal measures of stress prevention and health promotion at work are warranted, with special emphasis on gender differences.

  7. Assessing the Army Power and Energy Efforts for the Warfighter

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-01

    term. Details are in Appendix B. The report places energy challenges in three categories: greatest use, greatest difficulty, and greatest impact ...Power and energy testing Silicon carbide Two new energy facilities New types of solar photovoltaic systems Smaller, lighter cogeneration and...Assessing the Army Power and Energy Efforts for the Warfighter John W. Lyons, Richard Chait, and James J. Valdes

  8. An introductory guide to uncertainty analysis in environmental and health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Hammonds, J.S.

    1992-10-01

    To compensate for the potential for overly conservative estimates of risk using standard US Environmental Protection Agency methods, an uncertainty analysis should be performed as an integral part of each risk assessment. Uncertainty analyses allow one to obtain quantitative results in the form of confidence intervals that will aid in decision making and will provide guidance for the acquisition of additional data. To perform an uncertainty analysis, one must frequently rely on subjective judgment in the absence of data to estimate the range and a probability distribution describing the extent of uncertainty about a true but unknown value for each parameter of interest. This information is formulated from professional judgment based on an extensive review of literature, analysis of the data, and interviews with experts. Various analytical and numerical techniques are available to allow statistical propagation of the uncertainty in the model parameters to a statement of uncertainty in the risk to a potentially exposed individual. Although analytical methods may be straightforward for relatively simple models, they rapidly become complicated for more involved risk assessments. Because of the tedious efforts required to mathematically derive analytical approaches to propagate uncertainty in complicated risk assessments, numerical methods such as Monte Carlo simulation should be employed. The primary objective of this report is to provide an introductory guide for performing uncertainty analysis in risk assessments being performed for Superfund sites

  9. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  10. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  11. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  12. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  13. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  14. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  15. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. Settings The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Participants Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. Primary and secondary outcome measures We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. Results There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. Conclusions The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches

  16. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  17. Computer codes to assess risks from nuclear power plants with LWR's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, A.; Blanco, J.; Francia, L.; Gallego, E.; Morales, L.; Ortega, P.; Torres, C.

    1986-01-01

    The codes used to quantify risks from nuclear power plants are described. For QRA level 1 (quantitative risk assessment) qualitative and quantitative codes are described. Codes to estimate uncertainties, importance and dependent failures are also included. For QRA-level 2, the most important codes dealing with thermohydraulics, molten core and aerosols behaviour are described. For QRA-level 3 the list includes integrated as well as separate models. Only light water reactors are considered. The presentation is general but the authors describe with more detail those codes they are more familiar with or the ones they have created through their research effort. (author)

  18. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  19. Probabilistic health risk assessment of carcinogenic emissions from a MSW gasification plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lonati, Giovanni; Zanoni, Francesca

    2012-09-01

    Health risk assessment due to the atmospheric emissions of carcinogenic pollutants (PCDD/Fs and Cd) from a waste gasification plant is performed by means of a probabilistic approach based on probability density functions for the description of the input data of the model parameters involved in the assessment. These functions incorporate both the epistemic and stochastic uncertainty of the input data (namely, the emission rate of the pollutants) and of all the parameters used for individual exposure assessment through the pathways of inhalation, soil ingestion and dermal contact, and diet. The uncertainty is propagated throughout the evaluation by Monte Carlo technique, resulting in the probability distribution of the individual risk. The median risk levels nearby the plant are in the 10(-8)-10(-10) range, ten-fold lower than the deterministic estimate based on precautionary values for the input data; however, the very upper percentiles (>95th) of the risk distribution can exceed the conventional 10(-6) reference value. The estimated risk is almost entirely determined by the Cd exposure through the diet; the pathways arising from PCDD/Fs exposure are without any practical significance, suggesting that the emission control should focus on Cd in order to reduce the carcinogenic risk. Risk variance decomposition shows the prevailing influence on the estimated risk of the Cd concentration at the emission stack: thus, for a more accurate risk assessment the efforts should focus primarily on the definition of its probability density function. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Information Security Risk Assessment in Hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayatollahi, Haleh; Shagerdi, Ghazal

    2017-01-01

    To date, many efforts have been made to classify information security threats, especially in the healthcare area. However, there are still many unknown risks which may threat the security of health information and their resources especially in the hospitals. The aim of this study was to assess the risks threatening information security in the hospitals located in one of the northwest cities of Iran. This study was completed in 2014. The participants were information technology managers who worked in the hospitals (n=27). The research instrument was a questionnaire composed of a number of open and closed questions. The content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed, and the reliability of the closed questions was measured by using the test-retest method (r =0.78). The results showed that among the information security risks, fire found to be a high probability/high impact risk factor. Human and physical/environmental threats were among the low probability risk factors. Regarding the information security safeguards used in the hospitals, the results showed that the use of the technical safeguards was the most frequent one (n =22, 91.7%) compared to the administrative (n =21, 87.5%) and the physical safeguards (n =16, 66.7%). The high probability risk factors require quick corrective actions to be taken. Therefore, the underlying causes of such threats should be identified and controlled before experiencing adverse effects. It is also important to note that information security in health care systems needs to be considered at a macro level with respect to the national interests and policies.

  1. Effort-Based Decision Making: A Novel Approach for Assessing Motivation in Schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Michael F; Horan, William P; Barch, Deanna M; Gold, James M

    2015-09-01

    Because negative symptoms, including motivational deficits, are a critical unmet need in schizophrenia, there are many ongoing efforts to develop new pharmacological and psychosocial interventions for these impairments. A common challenge of these studies involves how to evaluate and select optimal endpoints. Currently, all studies of negative symptoms in schizophrenia depend on ratings from clinician-conducted interviews. Effort-based decision-making tasks may provide a more objective, and perhaps more sensitive, endpoint for trials of motivational negative symptoms. These tasks assess how much effort a person is willing to exert for a given level of reward. This area has been well-studied with animal models of effort and motivation, and effort-based decision-making tasks have been adapted for use in humans. Very recently, several studies have examined physical and cognitive types of effort-based decision-making tasks in cross-sectional studies of schizophrenia, providing evidence for effort-related impairment in this illness. This article covers the theoretical background on effort-based decision-making tasks to provide a context for the subsequent articles in this theme section. In addition, we review the existing literature of studies using these tasks in schizophrenia, consider some practical challenges in adapting them for use in clinical trials in schizophrenia, and discuss interpretive challenges that are central to these types of tasks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  3. Innovative real time simulation training and nuclear probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reisinger, M.F.

    1991-01-01

    Operator errors have been an area of public concern for the safe operation of nuclear power plants since the TMI2 incident. Simply stated, nuclear plants are very complex systems and the public is skeptical of the operators' ability to comprehend and deal with the vast indications and complexities of potential nuclear power plant events. Prior to the TMI2 incident, operator errors and human factors were not included as contributing factors in the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) studies of nuclear power plant accidents. More recent efforts in nuclear risk assessment have addressed some of the human factors affecting safe nuclear plant operations. One study found four major factors having significant impact on operator effectiveness. This paper discusses human factor PRAs, new applications in simulation training and the specific potential benefits from simulation in promoting safer operation of future power plants as well as current operating power plants

  4. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  5. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  6. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  7. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  8. Developing a caries risk registry to support caries risk assessment and management for children: A quality improvement initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruff, Jesley C; Herndon, Jill Boylston; Horton, Roger A; Lynch, Julie; Mathwig, Dawn C; Leonard, Audra; Aravamudhan, Krishna

    2017-10-27

    Health registries are commonly used in medicine to support public health activities and are increasingly used in quality improvement (QI) initiatives. Illustrations of dental registries and their QI applications are lacking. Within dentistry, caries risk assessment implementation and documentation are vital to optimal patient care. The purpose of this article is to describe the processes used to develop a caries risk assessment registry as a QI initiative to support clinical caries risk assessment, caries prevention, and disease management for children. Developmental steps reflected Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality recommendations for planning QI registries and included engaging "champions," defining the project, identifying registry features, defining performance dashboard indicators, and pilot testing with participant feedback. We followed Standards for Quality Improvement Reporting Excellence guidelines. Registry eligibility is patients aged 0-17 years. QI tools include prompts to register eligible patients; decision support tools grounded in evidence-based guidelines; and performance dashboard reports delivered at the provider and aggregated levels at regular intervals. The registry was successfully piloted in two practices with documented caries risk assessment increasing from 57 percent to 92 percent and positive feedback regarding the potential to improve dental practice patient centeredness, patient engagement and education, and quality of care. The caries risk assessment registry demonstrates how dental registries may be used in QI efforts to promote joint patient and provider engagement, foster shared decision making, and systematically collect patient information to generate timely and actionable data to improve care quality and patient outcomes at the individual and population levels. © 2017 American Association of Public Health Dentistry.

  9. Complementary use of life cycle assessment and risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials: Lessons learned from chemicals?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grieger, Khara D.; Laurent, Alexis; Miseljic, Mirko

    2013-01-01

    Successful strategies to handle the potential health and environmental risks of engineered nanomaterials (ENM) often rely upon the well-established frameworks of life cycle assessment (LCA) and risk assessment (RA). However, current research and specific guidance on how to actually apply these two...... scientific research efforts have taken into account some key lessons learned from past experiences with chemicals at the same time that many key challenges remain to applying these frameworks to ENM. In that setting, two main proposed approaches to use LCA and RA together for ENM are identified: i) LC......-based RA, similar to traditional RA applied in a life cycle perspective, and ii) RA-complemented LCA, similar to conventional LCA supplemented by RA in specific life cycle steps. This study finds that these two approaches for using LCA and RA together for ENM are similar to those made for chemicals...

  10. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  11. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V

    2017-03-21

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider's server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs' users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs' risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs' risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing.

  12. A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model Involving Frequency and Threat Degree under Line-of-Business Services for Infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xu; Hu, Hanwen; Yang, Huijun; Au, Man Ho; Li, Shuqin; Xiong, Naixue; Imran, Muhammad; Vasilakos, Athanasios V.

    2017-01-01

    The prospect of Line-of-Business Services (LoBSs) for infrastructure of Emerging Sensor Networks (ESNs) is exciting. Access control remains a top challenge in this scenario as the service provider’s server contains a lot of valuable resources. LoBSs’ users are very diverse as they may come from a wide range of locations with vastly different characteristics. Cost of joining could be low and in many cases, intruders are eligible users conducting malicious actions. As a result, user access should be adjusted dynamically. Assessing LoBSs’ risk dynamically based on both frequency and threat degree of malicious operations is therefore necessary. In this paper, we proposed a Quantitative Risk Assessment Model (QRAM) involving frequency and threat degree based on value at risk. To quantify the threat degree as an elementary intrusion effort, we amend the influence coefficient of risk indexes in the network security situation assessment model. To quantify threat frequency as intrusion trace effort, we make use of multiple behavior information fusion. Under the influence of intrusion trace, we adapt the historical simulation method of value at risk to dynamically access LoBSs’ risk. Simulation based on existing data is used to select appropriate parameters for QRAM. Our simulation results show that the duration influence on elementary intrusion effort is reasonable when the normalized parameter is 1000. Likewise, the time window of intrusion trace and the weight between objective risk and subjective risk can be set to 10 s and 0.5, respectively. While our focus is to develop QRAM for assessing the risk of LoBSs for infrastructure of ESNs dynamically involving frequency and threat degree, we believe it is also appropriate for other scenarios in cloud computing. PMID:28335569

  13. Floods and climate: emerging perspectives for flood risk assessment and management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Merz, B.; Aerts, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2014-01-01

    context of floods. We come to the following conclusions: (1) extending the traditional system boundaries (local catchment, recent decades, hydrological/hydraulic processes) opens up exciting possibilities for better understanding and improved tools for flood risk assessment and management. (2) Statistical......, and this variation may be partially quantifiable and predictable, with the perspective of dynamic, climate-informed flood risk management. (4) Efforts are needed to fully account for factors that contribute to changes in all three risk components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability) and to better understand......Flood estimation and flood management have traditionally been the domain of hydrologists, water resources engineers and statisticians, and disciplinary approaches abound. Dominant views have been shaped; one example is the catchment perspective: floods are formed and influenced by the interaction...

  14. Risk-informed decision making a keystone in advanced safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinhart, M.

    2007-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) has provided extremely valuable complementary insight, perspective, comprehension, and balance to deterministic nuclear reactor safety assessment. This integrated approach of risk-informed management and decision making has been called Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM). RIDM provides enhanced safety, reliability, operational flexibility, reduced radiological exposure, and improved fiscal economy. Applications of RIDM continuously increase. Current applications are in the areas of design, construction, licensing, operations, and security. Operational phase safety applications include the following: technical specifications improvement, risk-monitors and configuration control, maintenance planning, outage planning and management, in-service inspection, inservice testing, graded quality assurance, reactor oversight and inspection, inspection finding significance determination, operational events assessment, and rulemaking. Interestingly there is a significant spectrum of approaches, methods, programs, controls, data bases, and standards. The quest of many is to assimilate the full compliment of PSA and RIDM information and to achieve a balanced international harmony. The goal is to focus the best of the best, so to speak, for the benefit of all. Accordingly, this presentation will address the principles, benefits, and applications of RIDM. It will also address some of the challenges and areas to improve. Finally it will highlight efforts by the IAEA and others to capture the international thinking, experience, successes, challenges, and lessons in RIDM. (authors)

  15. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  16. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  17. An approach for integrating toxicogenomic data in risk assessment: The dibutyl phthalate case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Euling, Susan Y., E-mail: euling.susan@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Thompson, Chad M. [ToxStrategies, Inc., 23501 Cinco Ranch Blvd., Suite G265, Katy, TX 77494 (United States); Chiu, Weihsueh A. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States); Benson, Robert [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 8, Mail code 8P-W, 1595 Wynkoop Street, Denver, CO 80202 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    An approach for evaluating and integrating genomic data in chemical risk assessment was developed based on the lessons learned from performing a case study for the chemical dibutyl phthalate. A case study prototype approach was first developed in accordance with EPA guidance and recommendations of the scientific community. Dibutyl phthalate (DBP) was selected for the case study exercise. The scoping phase of the dibutyl phthalate case study was conducted by considering the available DBP genomic data, taken together with the entire data set, for whether they could inform various risk assessment aspects, such as toxicodynamics, toxicokinetics, and dose–response. A description of weighing the available dibutyl phthalate data set for utility in risk assessment provides an example for considering genomic data for future chemical assessments. As a result of conducting the scoping process, two questions—Do the DBP toxicogenomic data inform 1) the mechanisms or modes of action?, and 2) the interspecies differences in toxicodynamics?—were selected to focus the case study exercise. Principles of the general approach include considering the genomics data in conjunction with all other data to determine their ability to inform the various qualitative and/or quantitative aspects of risk assessment, and evaluating the relationship between the available genomic and toxicity outcome data with respect to study comparability and phenotypic anchoring. Based on experience from the DBP case study, recommendations and a general approach for integrating genomic data in chemical assessment were developed to advance the broader effort to utilize 21st century data in risk assessment. - Highlights: • Performed DBP case study for integrating genomic data in risk assessment • Present approach for considering genomic data in chemical risk assessment • Present recommendations for use of genomic data in chemical risk assessment.

  18. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  19. Motivational beliefs, student effort, and feedback behaviour in computer-based formative assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmers, C.F.; Braber-van den Broek, J.; van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine

    2013-01-01

    Feedback can only be effective when students seek feedback and process it. This study examines the relations between students' motivational beliefs, effort invested in a computer-based formative assessment, and feedback behaviour. Feedback behaviour is represented by whether a student seeks feedback

  20. A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

    2009-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

  1. Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VIII - Risk Assessment Documentation Package

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1996-12-01

    Volume VIII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the risk assessment documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

  2. Assessing social risks prior to commencement of a clinical trial: due diligence or ethical inflation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burris, Scott; Davis, Corey

    2009-11-01

    Assessing social risks has proven difficult for IRBs. We undertook a novel effort to empirically investigate social risks before an HIV prevention trial among drug users in Thailand and China. The assessment investigated whether law, policies and enforcement strategies would place research subjects at significantly elevated risk of arrest, incarceration, physical harm, breach of confidentiality, or loss of access to health care relative to drug users not participating in the research. The study validated the investigator's concern that drug users were subject to serious social risks in the site localities, but also suggested that participation in research posed little or no marginal increase in risk and might even have a protective effect. Our experience shows that it is feasible to inform IRB deliberations with actual data on social risks, but also raises the question of whether and when such research is an appropriate use of scare research resources.

  3. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification...... techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out...

  4. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  5. Application of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Models in Chemical Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moiz Mumtaz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Post-exposure risk assessment of chemical and environmental stressors is a public health challenge. Linking exposure to health outcomes is a 4-step process: exposure assessment, hazard identification, dose response assessment, and risk characterization. This process is increasingly adopting “in silico” tools such as physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK models to fine-tune exposure assessments and determine internal doses in target organs/tissues. Many excellent PBPK models have been developed. But most, because of their scientific sophistication, have found limited field application—health assessors rarely use them. Over the years, government agencies, stakeholders/partners, and the scientific community have attempted to use these models or their underlying principles in combination with other practical procedures. During the past two decades, through cooperative agreements and contracts at several research and higher education institutions, ATSDR funded translational research has encouraged the use of various types of models. Such collaborative efforts have led to the development and use of transparent and user-friendly models. The “human PBPK model toolkit” is one such project. While not necessarily state of the art, this toolkit is sufficiently accurate for screening purposes. Highlighted in this paper are some selected examples of environmental and occupational exposure assessments of chemicals and their mixtures.

  6. Affordable, automatic quantitative fall risk assessment based on clinical balance scales and Kinect data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colagiorgio, P; Romano, F; Sardi, F; Moraschini, M; Sozzi, A; Bejor, M; Ricevuti, G; Buizza, A; Ramat, S

    2014-01-01

    The problem of a correct fall risk assessment is becoming more and more critical with the ageing of the population. In spite of the available approaches allowing a quantitative analysis of the human movement control system's performance, the clinical assessment and diagnostic approach to fall risk assessment still relies mostly on non-quantitative exams, such as clinical scales. This work documents our current effort to develop a novel method to assess balance control abilities through a system implementing an automatic evaluation of exercises drawn from balance assessment scales. Our aim is to overcome the classical limits characterizing these scales i.e. limited granularity and inter-/intra-examiner reliability, to obtain objective scores and more detailed information allowing to predict fall risk. We used Microsoft Kinect to record subjects' movements while performing challenging exercises drawn from clinical balance scales. We then computed a set of parameters quantifying the execution of the exercises and fed them to a supervised classifier to perform a classification based on the clinical score. We obtained a good accuracy (~82%) and especially a high sensitivity (~83%).

  7. Improving the risk assessment of lipophilic persistent environmental chemicals in breast milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Geniece M; Verner, Marc-André; Luukinen, Bryan; Henning, Cara; Assimon, Sue Anne; LaKind, Judy S; McLanahan, Eva D; Phillips, Linda J; Davis, Matthew H; Powers, Christina M; Hines, Erin P; Haddad, Sami; Longnecker, Matthew P; Poulsen, Michael T; Farrer, David G; Marchitti, Satori A; Tan, Yu-Mei; Swartout, Jeffrey C; Sagiv, Sharon K; Welsh, Clement; Campbell, Jerry L; Foster, Warren G; Yang, Raymond S H; Fenton, Suzanne E; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio; Francis, Bettina M; Barnett, John B; El-Masri, Hisham A; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2014-08-01

    Lipophilic persistent environmental chemicals (LPECs) have the potential to accumulate within a woman's body lipids over the course of many years prior to pregnancy, to partition into human milk, and to transfer to infants upon breastfeeding. As a result of this accumulation and partitioning, a breastfeeding infant's intake of these LPECs may be much greater than his/her mother's average daily exposure. Because the developmental period sets the stage for lifelong health, it is important to be able to accurately assess chemical exposures in early life. In many cases, current human health risk assessment methods do not account for differences between maternal and infant exposures to LPECs or for lifestage-specific effects of exposure to these chemicals. Because of their persistence and accumulation in body lipids and partitioning into breast milk, LPECs present unique challenges for each component of the human health risk assessment process, including hazard identification, dose-response assessment, and exposure assessment. Specific biological modeling approaches are available to support both dose-response and exposure assessment for lactational exposures to LPECs. Yet, lack of data limits the application of these approaches. The goal of this review is to outline the available approaches and to identify key issues that, if addressed, could improve efforts to apply these approaches to risk assessment of lactational exposure to these chemicals.

  8. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  9. Future research needs associated with the assessment of potential human health risks from exposure to toxic ambient air pollutants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Möller, Lennart; Schuetzle, Dennis; Autrup, Herman

    1994-01-01

    of identification and quantification of toxics in source emissions and ambient air, atmospheric transport and chemistry, exposure level assessment, the development of improved in vitro bioassays, biomarker development, the development of more accurate epidemiological methodologies, and risk quantification......This paper presents key conclusions and future research needs from a Workshop on the Risk Assessment of Urban Air, Emissions, Exposure, Risk Identification, and Quantification, which was held in Stockholm during June 1992 by 41 participants from 13 countries. Research is recommended in the areas...... techniques. Studies are described that will be necessary to assess and reduce the level of uncertainties associated with each step of the risk assessment process. International collaborative research efforts between industry and government organizations are recommended as the most effective way to carry out...

  10. Problem formulation for risk assessment of combined exposures to chemicals and other stressors in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Keith R; Wilks, Martin F; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Moretto, Angelo; Pastoor, Timothy P; Phillips, Richard; Embry, Michelle R

    2016-11-01

    When the human health risk assessment/risk management paradigm was developed, it did not explicitly include a "problem formulation" phase. The concept of problem formulation was first introduced in the context of ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the pragmatic reason to constrain and focus ERAs on the key questions. However, this need also exists for human health risk assessment, particularly for cumulative risk assessment (CRA), because of its complexity. CRA encompasses the combined threats to health from exposure via all relevant routes to multiple stressors, including biological, chemical, physical and psychosocial stressors. As part of the HESI Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) Project, a framework for CRA was developed in which problem formulation plays a critical role. The focus of this effort is primarily on a chemical CRA (i.e., two or more chemicals) with subsequent consideration of non-chemical stressors, defined as "modulating factors" (ModFs). Problem formulation is a systematic approach that identifies all factors critical to a specific risk assessment and considers the purpose of the assessment, scope and depth of the necessary analysis, analytical approach, available resources and outcomes, and overall risk management goal. There are numerous considerations that are specific to multiple stressors, and proper problem formulation can help to focus a CRA to the key factors in order to optimize resources. As part of the problem formulation, conceptual models for exposures and responses can be developed that address these factors, such as temporal relationships between stressors and consideration of the appropriate ModFs.

  11. Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

    2014-08-01

    Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  13. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  14. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  15. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  16. Risk assessment of major hazards: Hazardous materials transportation in urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hubert, Ph; Pages, P

    1988-02-01

    There is no doubt that, thanks to the pioneering studies of the late seventies and the early eighties, a methodology has been made available that allows risk management of hazardous transportation in urban areas. This approach can easily be extended to the management of other similar risks (storages and to some extent natural hazards). The methodology is both technically available and affordable. The insertion within the decision making processes deserves still some efforts. It has be seen that the applications are broad and numerous. They range from route selection to emergency preparedness, with some insights into acceptability considerations. One limit to the use of such studies, aiming to an objective assessment of the risk, is the complexity of the decision problems, where many factors are to be considered, the most subtle being the one linked to acceptability. However, as such studies develop, those factors start to be clarified, and decision makers learn how to use risk indices in this context. So at the present time it can be said that risk analyses are a valuable input into the decision making process in most cases. And, as more experience is acquired the uses are broader. As any technical innovation risk assessment modifies the approaches to the questions it is dealing with. It seems impossible now to treat those kinds of risks as was done ten years ago.

  17. Risk assessment of major hazards: Hazardous materials transportation in urban areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, Ph.; Pages, P.

    1988-02-01

    There is no doubt that, thanks to the pioneering studies of the late seventies and the early eighties, a methodology has been made available that allows risk management of hazardous transportation in urban areas. This approach can easily be extended to the management of other similar risks (storages and to some extent natural hazards). The methodology is both technically available and affordable. The insertion within the decision making processes deserves still some efforts. It has be seen that the applications are broad and numerous. They range from route selection to emergency preparedness, with some insights into acceptability considerations. One limit to the use of such studies, aiming to an objective assessment of the risk, is the complexity of the decision problems, where many factors are to be considered, the most subtle being the one linked to acceptability. However, as such studies develop, those factors start to be clarified, and decision makers learn how to use risk indices in this context. So at the present time it can be said that risk analyses are a valuable input into the decision making process in most cases. And, as more experience is acquired the uses are broader. As any technical innovation risk assessment modifies the approaches to the questions it is dealing with. It seems impossible now to treat those kinds of risks as was done ten years ago

  18. Proposals for enhanced health risk assessment and stratification in an integrated care scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas-Espín, Ivan; Vela, Emili; Pauws, Steffen; Bescos, Cristina; Cano, Isaac; Cleries, Montserrat; Contel, Joan Carles; de Manuel Keenoy, Esteban; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Gomez-Cabrero, David; Kaye, Rachelle; Lahr, Maarten M H; Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Moharra, Montserrat; Monterde, David; Mora, Joana; Nalin, Marco; Pavlickova, Andrea; Piera, Jordi; Ponce, Sara; Santaeugenia, Sebastià; Schonenberg, Helen; Störk, Stefan; Tegner, Jesper; Velickovski, Filip; Westerteicher, Christoph; Roca, Josep

    2016-04-15

    Population-based health risk assessment and stratification are considered highly relevant for large-scale implementation of integrated care by facilitating services design and case identification. The principal objective of the study was to analyse five health-risk assessment strategies and health indicators used in the five regions participating in the Advancing Care Coordination and Telehealth Deployment (ACT) programme (http://www.act-programme.eu). The second purpose was to elaborate on strategies toward enhanced health risk predictive modelling in the clinical scenario. The five ACT regions: Scotland (UK), Basque Country (ES), Catalonia (ES), Lombardy (I) and Groningen (NL). Responsible teams for regional data management in the five ACT regions. We characterised and compared risk assessment strategies among ACT regions by analysing operational health risk predictive modelling tools for population-based stratification, as well as available health indicators at regional level. The analysis of the risk assessment tool deployed in Catalonia in 2015 (GMAs, Adjusted Morbidity Groups) was used as a basis to propose how population-based analytics could contribute to clinical risk prediction. There was consensus on the need for a population health approach to generate health risk predictive modelling. However, this strategy was fully in place only in two ACT regions: Basque Country and Catalonia. We found marked differences among regions in health risk predictive modelling tools and health indicators, and identified key factors constraining their comparability. The research proposes means to overcome current limitations and the use of population-based health risk prediction for enhanced clinical risk assessment. The results indicate the need for further efforts to improve both comparability and flexibility of current population-based health risk predictive modelling approaches. Applicability and impact of the proposals for enhanced clinical risk assessment require

  19. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  20. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  1. Coordinating ecological risk assessment with natural resource damage assessment: A panel discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Brenda; Ammann, Mike; Hoff, Rebecca; Huston, Mark; Jenkins, Kenneth; Palagyi, Tony; Pelto, Karen; Rettig, Todd; Wagner, Anne

    2016-10-01

    Contaminated sites in the United States undergo remediation and restoration through regulatory programs that lead the 2 processes through independent but often parallel pathways with different objectives. The objective of remediation is to reduce risk to human health and the environment, whereas that of restoration is to restore injured resources and compensate the public for lost use of the services that natural resources provide. More complex sites, such as those associated with large river systems and urban waterways, have resulted in increasingly larger-scale ecological risk assessments (ERAs) and natural resource damage assessments (NRDAs) that take many years and involve diverse practitioners including scientists, economists, and engineers. Substantial levels of effort are now frequently required, creating a need for more efficient and cost-effective approaches to data collection, analyses, and assessments. Because there are commonalities in the data needs between ERAs and NRDAs, coordination of the design and implementation of site-specific studies that meet the needs of both programs could result in increased efficiency and lower costs. The Association for Environmental Health and Sciences Foundation convened a panel of environmental practitioners from industry, consulting, and regulatory bodies to examine the benefits and challenges associated with coordinating ERA and NRDA activities in the context of a broad range of regulatory programs. This brief communication presents the opinions and conclusions of the panelists on these issues and reports 2 case studies for which coordinated ERA and NRDA activities produced a positive outcome. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:616-621. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

  2. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  3. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  4. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  5. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  6. Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

  7. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  8. New EU legislation for risk assessment of GM food: no scientific justification for mandatory animal feeding trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuiper, Harry A; Kok, Esther J; Davies, Howard V

    2013-09-01

    This commentary focuses on the potential added value of and need for (sub)-chronic testing of whole genetically modified (GM) foods in rodents to assess their safety. Such routine testing should not be required since, due to apparent weaknesses in the approach, it does not add to current risk assessment of GM foods. Moreover, the demand for routine testing using animals is in conflict with the European Union (EU) Commission's efforts to reduce animal experimentation. Regulating agencies in the EU are invited to respect the sound scientific principles applied to the risk assessment of foods derived from GM plants and not to interfere in the risk assessment by introducing extra requirements based on pseudo-scientific or political considerations. © 2013 Society for Experimental Biology, Association of Applied Biologists and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  10. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  11. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  12. A framework to integrate software behavior into dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Dongfeng; Mosleh, Ali; Smidts, Carol

    2007-01-01

    Software plays an increasingly important role in modern safety-critical systems. Although, research has been done to integrate software into the classical probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) framework, current PRA practice overwhelmingly neglects the contribution of software to system risk. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) is considered to be the next generation of PRA techniques. DPRA is a set of methods and techniques in which simulation models that represent the behavior of the elements of a system are exercised in order to identify risks and vulnerabilities of the system. The fact remains, however, that modeling software for use in the DPRA framework is also quite complex and very little has been done to address the question directly and comprehensively. This paper develops a methodology to integrate software contributions in the DPRA environment. The framework includes a software representation, and an approach to incorporate the software representation into the DPRA environment SimPRA. The software representation is based on multi-level objects and the paper also proposes a framework to simulate the multi-level objects in the simulation-based DPRA environment. This is a new methodology to address the state explosion problem in the DPRA environment. This study is the first systematic effort to integrate software risk contributions into DPRA environments

  13. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 2: Supporting documents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tortorelli, J.P. [ed.] [Lockheed Idaho Technologies Co., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains presentation material and a transcript of the workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report.

  14. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 2: Supporting documents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tortorelli, J.P.

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains presentation material and a transcript of the workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC's intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report

  15. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  16. Risk assessment for transportation of radioactive material within the state of Idaho

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deng, C.; Oberg, S.G.; Downs, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    The State of Idaho and the U.S. DOE have agreed to a one year pilot program to review and analyze DOE's off-site transportation of radioactive materials within Idaho on a shipping-campaign basis. As a part of that effort, the State of Idaho INEL Oversight Program conducts independent transportation risk assessments. These risk assessments are performed for both highway and railroad shipments using the computer codes RADTRAN4 ,and RISKIND 1.11. Some input parameters are customized with. Idaho-specific data, such as population density, accident rates and meteorological data. The dose and risk (to the public, handlers, crew, etc.) are estimated for both incident free and accident scenarios. Source term files are being built for past, current, and future shipments in Idaho. These include transuranic waste. shipments to WIPP, low level waste, mixed waste, spent fuel, and high level waste. Each shipment is analyzed for two types of transportation route segments: county segments and ten-mile segments. Risk estimation for each county segment provides information for allocation of emergency preparedness resources. Risk estimation for each ten-mile segment helps to identify higher risk segments. The dose and risk results are presented in appropriate formats for various audiences. The quantitative risk measures are used to guide appropriate levels of emergency preparedness. GIS tools are being used to graphically present risk information to elected officials and to the general public

  17. Biomonitoring-based risk assessment for hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aylward, Lesa L; Hays, Sean M

    2011-06-01

    Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) is a brominated flame retardant compound that has been the subject of recent interest and risk assessment efforts due to its detection in a variety of environmental media and in human biological matrices. Because the exposure pathways for HBCD may be varied and exposure estimation uncertain, biomonitoring for HBCD in humans shows promise as a means of reflecting integrated human exposures to HBCD with lower uncertainty than through estimation of external exposures via multiple pathways. Data from numerous biomonitoring studies of HBCD over the past decade indicate that the central tendency of lipid-adjusted serum and human milk concentrations is approximately 1ng/g lipid, with upper bound levels of approximately 20 ng/g lipid. Recent risk assessment evaluations from Health Canada and the European Union have identified points of departure of 10 and 20mg/kg day, respectively, from rat repeated dose studies. The corresponding measured or estimated lipid-adjusted tissue concentrations in the laboratory animals at these points of departure range from 120,000 to 190,000 ng/g lipid. In comparison to these concentrations, the biomonitored human serum and milk concentrations indicate margins of exposure (MOEs) of 6000 to more than 100,000, which are greatly in excess of target MOE values. The use of internal dose measures (both from measurements of tissue concentrations in animal toxicology studies and from human biomonitoring studies) provides risk managers with highly relevant exposure information that is less uncertain than estimated external doses. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  18. Merging Remote Sensing and Socioeconomic Data to Improve Disaster Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetman, G.; Chen, R. S.; Huyck, C. K.

    2015-12-01

    Natural disasters disproportionately impact developing country economies while also impacting business operations for multi-national corporations that rely on supplies and manufacturing in affected areas. Understanding natural hazard risk is only a first step towards preparedness and mitigation—data on facilities, transportation, critical infrastructure, and populations that may be exposed to disasters is required to plan for events and properly assess risks. Detailed exposure data can be used in models to predict casualty rates, aggregate estimates of building damage or destruction, impacts on business operations, and the scale of recovery efforts required. These model outputs are useful for disaster preparedness planning by national and international organizations, as well as for corporations and the reinsurance industry seeking to better understand their risk exposure. Many of these data are lacking for developing countries. Rapid assessment in areas with minimal data for disaster modeling is possible by combing remote sensing data, sample data on construction methods, facility and critical infrastructure data, and economic and demographic census information. This presentation focuses on the methods used to fuse the physical and socioeconomic data by presenting the results from two projects. The first project seeks to improve earthquake risk assessments in Asia using for the reinsurance industry, while the second project builds an integrated exposure database across five countries in Africa for use by international development organizations.

  19. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  20. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  1. Environmental fate and exposure models: advances and challenges in 21st century chemical risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Guardo, Antonio; Gouin, Todd; MacLeod, Matthew; Scheringer, Martin

    2018-01-24

    Environmental fate and exposure models are a powerful means to integrate information on chemicals, their partitioning and degradation behaviour, the environmental scenario and the emissions in order to compile a picture of chemical distribution and fluxes in the multimedia environment. A 1995 pioneering book, resulting from a series of workshops among model developers and users, reported the main advantages and identified needs for research in the field of multimedia fate models. Considerable efforts were devoted to their improvement in the past 25 years and many aspects were refined; notably the inclusion of nanomaterials among the modelled substances, the development of models at different spatial and temporal scales, the estimation of chemical properties and emission data, the incorporation of additional environmental media and processes, the integration of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the simulations. However, some challenging issues remain and require research efforts and attention: the need of methods to estimate partition coefficients for polar and ionizable chemical in the environment, a better description of bioavailability in different environments as well as the requirement of injecting more ecological realism in exposure predictions to account for the diversity of ecosystem structures and functions in risk assessment. Finally, to transfer new scientific developments into the realm of regulatory risk assessment, we propose the formation of expert groups that compare, discuss and recommend model modifications and updates and help develop practical tools for risk assessment.

  2. Coenoses risk assessment in industry (resource specificity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyaglov Sergey, G.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The modernization of the economic infrastructure of modern Russia is now essential, taking a natural limiter necessary momentum, which is especially important in the current conditions of global trends and taking into account the efforts taken by the State, aimed at large-scale growth of production of Russian companies. This paper discusses the direction of overcoming the problem of lack of access to financial services to business entities, due to the lack of a universal tool to identify risks in the provision of credit resources to the understanding that, despite the differences in interpretation of Russian and foreign sources, is a complex of ontological perception of researchers, proposed expanded by generally accepted phenomenon of self-organization. It is proposed to assess the risks of the enterprises on the basis of the provisions of coenoses theory, which allows using a few key parameters to determine the degree of efficiency of use of available resources, to identify the stability of the enterprise as a system and predict its dynamic changes.

  3. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  4. Flood Risk Assessment and Forecasting for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, T. M.; Priya, S.; Young, W.; Avasthi, A.; Clayton, T. D.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Broman, D.; Boehnert, J.; Sampson, K. M.; Kettner, A.; Singh, D.

    2017-12-01

    During the 2017 South Asia monsoon, torrential rains and catastrophic floods affected more than 45 million people, including 16 million children, across the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basins. The basin is recognized as one of the world's most disaster-prone regions, with severe floods occurring almost annually causing extreme loss of life and property. In light of this vulnerability, the World Bank and collaborators have contributed toward reducing future flood impacts through recent developments to improve operational preparedness for such events, as well as efforts in more general preparedness and resilience building through planning based on detailed risk assessments. With respect to improved event-specific flood preparedness through operational warnings, we discuss a new forecasting system that provides probability-based flood forecasts developed for more than 85 GBM locations. Forecasts are available online, along with near-real-time data maps of rainfall (predicted and actual) and river levels. The new system uses multiple data sets and multiple models to enhance forecasting skill, and provides improved forecasts up to 16 days in advance of the arrival of high waters. These longer lead times provide the opportunity to save both lives and livelihoods. With sufficient advance notice, for example, farmers can harvest a threatened rice crop or move vulnerable livestock to higher ground. Importantly, the forecasts not only predict future water levels but indicate the level of confidence in each forecast. Knowing whether the probability of a danger-level flood is 10 percent or 90 percent helps people to decide what, if any, action to take. With respect to efforts in general preparedness and resilience building, we also present a recent flood risk assessment, and how it provides, for the first time, a numbers-based view of the impacts of different size floods across the Ganges basin. The findings help identify priority areas for tackling flood risks (for

  5. C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Engineering-Initial High-Level Safety Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface communication system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents an initial high-level safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the C-band communication system after the profile is finalized and system rollout timing is determined. A security risk assessment has been performed by NASA as a parallel activity. While safety analysis is concerned with a prevention of accidental errors and failures, the security threat analysis focuses on deliberate attacks. Both processes identify the events that affect operation of the system; and from a safety perspective the security threats may present safety risks.

  6. Resilience of an Earthquake-Stricken Rural Community in Southwest China: Correlation with Disaster Risk Reduction Efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Ke; Han, Ziqiang; Wang, Dongming

    2018-02-27

    Disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities have given growing attention to building community resilience, but the effects of such efforts on community resilience are still under-investigated, especially in China where the concept of community resilience has only just emerged. Using the Communities Advancing Resilience Toolkit Assessment Survey, data on self-perceived community resilience were collected in 2017 from a post-disaster Chinese rural community in Yingxiu Town, which was the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake (Magnitude = 8.0) in the year 2008. Linear regression analyses were conducted to explore the correlations between residents' DRR behaviors and perceived community resilience with the control of their socio-demographic characteristics including age, ethnicity, gender, education, income level, employment status and marital status. Results indicate that residents who volunteered for DRR activities received geological disaster education, participated in evacuation drills, and reported higher income levels had a perception of higher community resilience. Practice research is suggested to help clarify the cause and effect of DRR work on the enhancement of community resilience to disasters in China and abroad. Attention is also called to the development of a Chinese indigenous community resilience concept and assessment instrument.

  7. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  8. Effort-reward imbalance at work and the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors: cross-sectional survey in a sample of 36,127 public sector employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouvonen, Anne; Kivimäki, Mika; Virtanen, Marianna; Heponiemi, Tarja; Elovainio, Marko; Pentti, Jaana; Linna, Anne; Vahtera, Jussi

    2006-02-07

    In occupational life, a mismatch between high expenditure of effort and receiving few rewards may promote the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors, however, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute this hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the dimensions of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) model--effort, rewards and ERI--are associated with the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors. Based on data from the Finnish Public Sector Study, cross-sectional analyses were performed for 28,894 women and 7233 men. ERI was conceptualized as a ratio of effort and rewards. To control for individual differences in response styles, such as a personal disposition to answer negatively to questionnaires, occupational and organizational-level ecological ERI scores were constructed in addition to individual-level ERI scores. Risk factors included current smoking, heavy drinking, body mass index > or =25 kg/m2, and physical inactivity. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate the likelihood of having one risk factor, two risk factors, and three or four risk factors. The associations between ERI and single risk factors were explored using binary logistic regression models. After adjustment for age, socioeconomic position, marital status, and type of job contract, women and men with high ecological ERI were 40% more likely to have simultaneously > or =3 lifestyle risk factors (vs. 0 risk factors) compared with their counterparts with low ERI. When examined separately, both low ecological effort and low ecological rewards were also associated with an elevated prevalence of risk factor co-occurrence. The results obtained with the individual-level scores were in the same direction. The associations of ecological ERI with single risk factors were generally less marked than the associations with the co-occurrence of risk factors. This study suggests that a high ratio of occupational efforts relative to rewards may be

  9. The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

  10. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  11. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

    2015-11-27

    An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  12. The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter M. J. Bos

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

  13. Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Mihalchuk

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

  14. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  15. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  16. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  17. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  18. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  19. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  20. Miniature Biosensor with Health Risk Assessment Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Andrea; Downs, Meghan; Kalogera, Kent; Buxton, Roxanne; Cooper, Tommy; Cooper, Alan; Cooper, Ross

    2016-01-01

    Heart rate (HR) monitoring is a medical requirement during exercise on the International Space Station (ISS), fitness tests, and extravehicular activity (EVA); however, NASA does not currently have the technology to consistently and accurately monitor HR and other physiological data during these activities. Performance of currently available HR monitor technologies is dependent on uninterrupted contact with the torso and are prone to data drop-out and motion artifact. Here, we seek an alternative to the chest strap and electrode based sensors currently in use on ISS today. This project aims to develop a high performance, robust earbud based biosensor with focused efforts on improved HR data quality during exercise or EVA. A health risk assessment algorithm will further advance the goals of autonomous crew health care for exploration missions.

  1. Worldwide governmental efforts to locate and destroy chemical weapons and weapons materials: minimizing risk in transport and destruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trapp, Ralf

    2006-09-01

    The article gives an overview on worldwide efforts to eliminate chemical weapons and facilities for their production in the context of the implementation of the 1997 Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). It highlights the objectives of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the international agency set up in The Hague to implement the CWC, and provides an overview of the present status of implementation of the CWC requirements with respect to chemical weapons (CW) destruction under strict international verification. It addresses new requirements that result from an increased threat that terrorists might attempt to acquire or manufacture CW or related materials. The article provides an overview of risks associated with CW and their elimination, from storage or recovery to destruction. It differentiates between CW in stockpile and old/abandoned CW, and gives an overview on the factors and key processes that risk assessment, management, and communication need to address. This discussion is set in the overall context of the CWC that requires the completion of the destruction of all declared CW stockpiles by 2012 at the latest.

  2. Assessments and applications to enhance human reliability and reduce risk during less-than-full-power operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hannaman, G.W.; Singh, A.

    1992-01-01

    Study of events, interviews with plant personnel, and applications of risk studies indicate that the risk of a potential accident during less-than-full-power (LTFP) operation is becoming a greater fraction of the risk as improvements are made to the full-power operations. Industry efforts have been increased to reduce risk and the cost of shutdown operations. These efforts consider the development and application of advanced tools to help utilities proactively identify issues and develop contingencies and interventions to enhance reliability and reduce risk of low-power operations at nuclear power plants. The role for human reliability assessments is to help improve utility outage planning to better achieve schedule and risk control objectives. Improvements are expected to include intervention tools to identify and reduce human error, definition of new instructional modules, and prioritization of risk reduction issues for operators. The Electric Power Research Institute is sponsoring a project to address the identification and quantification of factors that affect human reliability during LTFP operation of nuclear power plants. The results of this project are expected to promote the development of proactively applied interventions and contingencies for enhanced human reliability during shutdown operations

  3. Effort rights-based management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Squires, Dale; Maunder, Mark; Allen, Robin

    2017-01-01

    Effort rights-based fisheries management (RBM) is less widely used than catch rights, whether for groups or individuals. Because RBM on catch or effort necessarily requires a total allowable catch (TAC) or total allowable effort (TAE), RBM is discussed in conjunction with issues in assessing fish...... populations and providing TACs or TAEs. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages, and there are trade-offs between the two approaches. In a narrow economic sense, catch rights are superior because of the type of incentives created, but once the costs of research to improve stock assessments...

  4. Total Probability of Collision as a Metric for Finite Conjunction Assessment and Collision Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Hejduk, Matthew D.; Johnson, Lauren C.; Plakalovic, Dragan

    2015-01-01

    On-orbit collision risk is becoming an increasing mission risk to all operational satellites in Earth orbit. Managing this risk can be disruptive to mission and operations, present challenges for decision-makers, and is time-consuming for all parties involved. With the planned capability improvements to detecting and tracking smaller orbital debris and capacity improvements to routinely predict on-orbit conjunctions, this mission risk will continue to grow in terms of likelihood and effort. It is very real possibility that the future space environment will not allow collision risk management and mission operations to be conducted in the same manner as it is today. This paper presents the concept of a finite conjunction assessment-one where each discrete conjunction is not treated separately but, rather, as a continuous event that must be managed concurrently. The paper also introduces the Total Probability of Collision as an analogous metric for finite conjunction assessment operations and provides several options for its usage in a Concept of Operations.

  5. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  6. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  7. An integrated approach to risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN threat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bokan, S.

    2009-01-01

    CBRN mass casualty events threat mitigation remains today the highest international priority. Although significant progress has been made, the national security requirements for efforts to combat Weapons of Mass Destruction and Weapons of Mass Disruption will be of the highest national priority in the near future. An integration of a number of approaches is essential in the risk assessment and mitigating the CBRN treat. Preparedness measures and procedures, engineering, science and technology, policy, medical, and emergency response are essential to reduce the threat from the proliferation and use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Improved coordination between international, public and private security entities is also essential task to hopefully prevent the terrorist attacks. In this lecture, it will be presented very important scientific approach to risk assessment of potential use of nuclear, radiological, biological or chemical weapons in terrorist actions. An integrated approach for mitigating the CBRN threat, crisis management and preparedness measures for prevention and reduction of potential consequences, will be presented.(author)

  8. Physics-Based Fragment Acceleration Modeling for Pressurized Tank Burst Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Ted A.; Lawrence, Scott L.

    2014-01-01

    As part of comprehensive efforts to develop physics-based risk assessment techniques for space systems at NASA, coupled computational fluid and rigid body dynamic simulations were carried out to investigate the flow mechanisms that accelerate tank fragments in bursting pressurized vessels. Simulations of several configurations were compared to analyses based on the industry-standard Baker explosion model, and were used to formulate an improved version of the model. The standard model, which neglects an external fluid, was found to agree best with simulation results only in configurations where the internal-to-external pressure ratio is very high and fragment curvature is small. The improved model introduces terms that accommodate an external fluid and better account for variations based on circumferential fragment count. Physics-based analysis was critical in increasing the model's range of applicability. The improved tank burst model can be used to produce more accurate risk assessments of space vehicle failure modes that involve high-speed debris, such as exploding propellant tanks and bursting rocket engines.

  9. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tortorelli, J.P. [ed.] [Lockheed Idaho Technologies Co., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC`s intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance.

  10. A workshop on developing risk assessment methods for medical use of radioactive material. Volume 1: Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tortorelli, J.P.

    1995-08-01

    A workshop was held at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, August 16--18, 1994 on the topic of risk assessment on medical devices that use radioactive isotopes. Its purpose was to review past efforts to develop a risk assessment methodology to evaluate these devices, and to develop a program plan and a scoping document for future methodology development. This report contains a summary of that workshop. Participants included experts in the fields of radiation oncology, medical physics, risk assessment, human-error analysis, and human factors. Staff from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) associated with the regulation of medical uses of radioactive materials and with research into risk-assessment methods participated in the workshop. The workshop participants concurred in NRC's intended use of risk assessment as an important technology in the development of regulations for the medical use of radioactive material and encouraged the NRC to proceed rapidly with a pilot study. Specific recommendations are included in the executive summary and the body of this report. An appendix contains the 8 papers presented at the conference: NRC proposed policy statement on the use of probabilistic risk assessment methods in nuclear regulatory activities; NRC proposed agency-wide implementation plan for probabilistic risk assessment; Risk evaluation of high dose rate remote afterloading brachytherapy at a large research/teaching institution; The pros and cons of using human reliability analysis techniques to analyze misadministration events; Review of medical misadministration event summaries and comparison of human error modeling; Preliminary examples of the development of error influences and effects diagrams to analyze medical misadministration events; Brachytherapy risk assessment program plan; and Principles of brachytherapy quality assurance

  11. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  12. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  13. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  14. An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Edward J

    2015-04-01

    The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

  15. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  16. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  17. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  18. Electromagnetic fields: risk assessment and occupational diseases in Italy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Filosa, L.; Frusteri, L. [Risk Assessment and Prevention, Technical Advisory Dept., Italian Workers Compensation Authority, Rome (Italy)

    2006-07-01

    Every year about 8000 occupational diseases are accepted in Italy by I.N.A.I.L., the Italian Workers' Compensation Authority. The occupational diseases are caused by different agents (chemical, biological, physical) but only a very little percentage resulted to be caused by non ionizing radiations. In this paper the Authors report an analysis of occupational diseases caused by non ionising radiations denounced to I.N.A.I.L. and compensated. It is discussed the Italian situation in light of the controversial studies related to the link between exposure and health effects. Because of the uncertainty about an E.M.F. - health link, the main effort is to determine the probability and seriousness of E.M.F. hazard and to realize an accurate risk assessment at workplace, which is one of the main objectives pursued by I.N.A.I.L. Technical Advisory Department for Risk Assessment and Prevention. Moreover, in this paper it is also reported the state of advancement of Italian legislation on health protection against non ionizing radiations at workplace in view of the new European Directive (2004/40/C.E.). (authors)

  19. Electromagnetic fields: risk assessment and occupational diseases in Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filosa, L.; Frusteri, L.

    2006-01-01

    Every year about 8000 occupational diseases are accepted in Italy by I.N.A.I.L., the Italian Workers' Compensation Authority. The occupational diseases are caused by different agents (chemical, biological, physical) but only a very little percentage resulted to be caused by non ionizing radiations. In this paper the Authors report an analysis of occupational diseases caused by non ionising radiations denounced to I.N.A.I.L. and compensated. It is discussed the Italian situation in light of the controversial studies related to the link between exposure and health effects. Because of the uncertainty about an E.M.F. - health link, the main effort is to determine the probability and seriousness of E.M.F. hazard and to realize an accurate risk assessment at workplace, which is one of the main objectives pursued by I.N.A.I.L. Technical Advisory Department for Risk Assessment and Prevention. Moreover, in this paper it is also reported the state of advancement of Italian legislation on health protection against non ionizing radiations at workplace in view of the new European Directive (2004/40/C.E.). (authors)

  20. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  1. "The Dose Makes the Poison": Informing Consumers About the Scientific Risk Assessment of Food Additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bearth, Angela; Cousin, Marie-Eve; Siegrist, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Intensive risk assessment is required before the approval of food additives. During this process, based on the toxicological principle of "the dose makes the poison,ˮ maximum usage doses are assessed. However, most consumers are not aware of these efforts to ensure the safety of food additives and are therefore sceptical, even though food additives bring certain benefits to consumers. This study investigated the effect of a short video, which explains the scientific risk assessment and regulation of food additives, on consumers' perceptions and acceptance of food additives. The primary goal of this study was to inform consumers and enable them to construct their own risk-benefit assessment and make informed decisions about food additives. The secondary goal was to investigate whether people have different perceptions of food additives of artificial (i.e., aspartame) or natural origin (i.e., steviolglycoside). To attain these research goals, an online experiment was conducted on 185 Swiss consumers. Participants were randomly assigned to either the experimental group, which was shown a video about the scientific risk assessment of food additives, or the control group, which was shown a video about a topic irrelevant to the study. After watching the video, the respondents knew significantly more, expressed more positive thoughts and feelings, had less risk perception, and more acceptance than prior to watching the video. Thus, it appears that informing consumers about complex food safety topics, such as the scientific risk assessment of food additives, is possible, and using a carefully developed information video is a successful strategy for informing consumers. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  2. Risk assessment of pesticides and other stressors in bees: Principles, data gaps and perspectives from the European Food Safety Authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rortais, Agnès; Arnold, Gérard; Dorne, Jean-Lou; More, Simon J; Sperandio, Giorgio; Streissl, Franz; Szentes, Csaba; Verdonck, Frank

    2017-06-01

    Current approaches to risk assessment in bees do not take into account co-exposures from multiple stressors. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is deploying resources and efforts to move towards a holistic risk assessment approach of multiple stressors in bees. This paper describes the general principles of pesticide risk assessment in bees, including recent developments at EFSA dealing with risk assessment of single and multiple pesticide residues and biological hazards. The EFSA Guidance Document on the risk assessment of plant protection products in bees highlights the need for the inclusion of an uncertainty analysis, other routes of exposures and multiple stressors such as chemical mixtures and biological agents. The EFSA risk assessment on the survival, spread and establishment of the small hive beetle, Aethina tumida, an invasive alien species, is provided with potential insights for other bee pests such as the Asian hornet, Vespa velutina. Furthermore, data gaps are identified at each step of the risk assessment, and recommendations are made for future research that could be supported under the framework of Horizon 2020. Finally, the recent work conducted at EFSA is presented, under the overarching MUST-B project ("EU efforts towards the development of a holistic approach for the risk assessment on MUltiple STressors in Bees") comprising a toolbox for harmonised data collection under field conditions and a mechanistic model to assess effects from pesticides and other stressors such as biological agents and beekeeping management practices, at the colony level and in a spatially complex landscape. Future perspectives at EFSA include the development of a data model to collate high quality data to calibrate and validate the model to be used as a regulatory tool. Finally, the evidence collected within the framework of MUST-B will support EFSA's activities on the development of a holistic approach to the risk assessment of multiple stressors in bees. In

  3. Terrestrial population models for ecological risk assessment: A state-of-the-art review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emlen, J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Few attempts have been made to formulate models for predicting impacts of xenobiotic chemicals on wildlife populations. However, considerable effort has been invested in wildlife optimal exploitation models. Because death from intoxication has a similar effect on population dynamics as death by harvesting, these management models are applicable to ecological risk assessment. An underlying Leslie-matrix bookkeeping formulation is widely applicable to vertebrate wildlife populations. Unfortunately, however, the various submodels that track birth, death, and dispersal rates as functions of the physical, chemical, and biotic environment are by their nature almost inevitably highly species- and locale-specific. Short-term prediction of one-time chemical applications requires only information on mortality before and after contamination. In such cases a simple matrix formulation may be adequate for risk assessment. But generally, risk must be projected over periods of a generation or more. This precludes generic protocols for risk assessment and also the ready and inexpensive predictions of a chemical's influence on a given population. When designing and applying models for ecological risk assessment at the population level, the endpoints (output) of concern must be carefully and rigorously defined. The most easily accessible and appropriate endpoints are (1) pseudoextinction (the frequency or probability of a population falling below a prespecified density), and (2) temporal mean population density. Spatial and temporal extent of predicted changes must be clearly specified a priori to avoid apparent contradictions and confusion.

  4. Brief Self-Report Scales Assessing Life History Dimensions of Mating and Parenting Effort

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J. Kruger

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Life history theory (LHT is a powerful evolutionary framework for understanding physiological, psychological, and behavioral variation both between and within species. Researchers and theorists are increasingly integrating LHT into evolutionary psychology, as it provides a strong foundation for research across many topical areas. Human life history variation has been represented in psychological and behavioral research in several ways, including indicators of conditions in the developmental environment, indicators of conditions in the current environment, and indicators of maturation and life milestones (e.g., menarche, initial sexual activity, first pregnancy, and in self-report survey scale measures. Survey scale measures have included constructs such as time perspective and future discounting, although the most widely used index is a constellation of indicators assessing the K-factor, thought to index general life history speed (from fast to slow. The current project examined the utility of two brief self-report survey measures assessing the life history dimensions of mating effort and parenting effort with a large undergraduate sample in the United States. Consistent with the theory, items reflected two inversely related dimensions. In regressions including the K-factor, the Mating Effort Scale proved to be a powerful predictor of other constructs and indicators related to life history variation. The Parenting Effort Scale had less predictive power overall, although it explained unique variance across several constructs and was the only unique predictor of the number of long-term (serious and committed relationships. These scales may be valuable additions to self-report survey research projects examining life history variation.

  5. Use of risk assessment panels during revision of the Tongass Land and Resource Management Plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles G. Shaw

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes the process used to conduct the 16 risk assessment panels and a subsistence working group held during revision of the Tongass land management plan. It provides an overview of how results from the panels were used by forest managers in plan-related decisionmaking, discusses some reactions to the effort, and identifies some opportunities to improve...

  6. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  7. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  8. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  9. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  10. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  11. Effort-reward imbalance at work and the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors: cross-sectional survey in a sample of 36,127 public sector employees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouvonen, Anne; Kivimäki, Mika; Virtanen, Marianna; Heponiemi, Tarja; Elovainio, Marko; Pentti, Jaana; Linna, Anne; Vahtera, Jussi

    2006-01-01

    Background In occupational life, a mismatch between high expenditure of effort and receiving few rewards may promote the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors, however, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute this hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the dimensions of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) model – effort, rewards and ERI – are associated with the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors. Methods Based on data from the Finnish Public Sector Study, cross-sectional analyses were performed for 28,894 women and 7233 men. ERI was conceptualized as a ratio of effort and rewards. To control for individual differences in response styles, such as a personal disposition to answer negatively to questionnaires, occupational and organizational -level ecological ERI scores were constructed in addition to individual-level ERI scores. Risk factors included current smoking, heavy drinking, body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and physical inactivity. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate the likelihood of having one risk factor, two risk factors, and three or four risk factors. The associations between ERI and single risk factors were explored using binary logistic regression models. Results After adjustment for age, socioeconomic position, marital status, and type of job contract, women and men with high ecological ERI were 40% more likely to have simultaneously ≥3 lifestyle risk factors (vs. 0 risk factors) compared with their counterparts with low ERI. When examined separately, both low ecological effort and low ecological rewards were also associated with an elevated prevalence of risk factor co-occurrence. The results obtained with the individual-level scores were in the same direction. The associations of ecological ERI with single risk factors were generally less marked than the associations with the co-occurrence of risk factors. Conclusion This study suggests that a high ratio of occupational

  12. Effort-reward imbalance at work and the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors: cross-sectional survey in a sample of 36,127 public sector employees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elovainio Marko

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In occupational life, a mismatch between high expenditure of effort and receiving few rewards may promote the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors, however, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute this hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the dimensions of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI model – effort, rewards and ERI – are associated with the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors. Methods Based on data from the Finnish Public Sector Study, cross-sectional analyses were performed for 28,894 women and 7233 men. ERI was conceptualized as a ratio of effort and rewards. To control for individual differences in response styles, such as a personal disposition to answer negatively to questionnaires, occupational and organizational -level ecological ERI scores were constructed in addition to individual-level ERI scores. Risk factors included current smoking, heavy drinking, body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and physical inactivity. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate the likelihood of having one risk factor, two risk factors, and three or four risk factors. The associations between ERI and single risk factors were explored using binary logistic regression models. Results After adjustment for age, socioeconomic position, marital status, and type of job contract, women and men with high ecological ERI were 40% more likely to have simultaneously ≥3 lifestyle risk factors (vs. 0 risk factors compared with their counterparts with low ERI. When examined separately, both low ecological effort and low ecological rewards were also associated with an elevated prevalence of risk factor co-occurrence. The results obtained with the individual-level scores were in the same direction. The associations of ecological ERI with single risk factors were generally less marked than the associations with the co-occurrence of risk factors. Conclusion This study suggests that a high

  13. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  14. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  15. Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

  16. A dynamic process of health risk assessment for business continuity management during the World Exposition Shanghai, China, 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiaodong; Keim, Mark; Dong, Chen; Mahany, Mollie; Guo, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Reports of health issues related to mass gatherings around the world have indicated a potential for public health and medical emergencies to occur on a scale that could place a significant impact on business continuity for national and international organisations. This paper describes a risk assessment process for business continuity management that was performed as part of the planning efforts related to the World Expo 2010 Shanghai China (Expo), the world's largest mass gathering to date. Altogether, 73 million visitors attended the Expo, generating over US$2bn of revenue. During 2008 to 2010, the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention performed a dynamic series of four disaster risk assessments before and during the Expo. The purpose of this assessment process was to identify, analyse and evaluate risks for public health security during different stages of the Expo. This paper describes an overview of the novel approach for this multiple and dynamic process of assessment of health security risk for ensuring business continuity.

  17. Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

  18. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  19. Simplified risk assessment for transporting ATR spent fuel within the INEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franklin, E.M.; Courtney, J.C.

    1994-01-01

    Interest in characterizing the condition of stored spent fuels has generated the need to move spent fuels to hot cell facilities within the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). A simplified probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) and an evaluation of the radiological consequences in the event of an accident are discussed and applied to on-site Advanced Test Reactor (AYR) spent fuel shipments. Reported accident probabilities between 10 -4 and 10 -6 and low radiological consequences, affords this, and other spent fuel characterization efforts, an additional option to move spent fuels within the INEL

  20. Effort-reward imbalance at work and pre-clinical biological indices of ill-health: the case for salivary immunoglobulin A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bathman, Lauren Marjorie; Almond, Jacinta; Hazi, Agnes; Wright, Bradley James

    2013-10-01

    Physiological indices of stress and ill-health (cortisol and salivary immunoglobulin A) were assessed to determine if they were predicted by Siegrist's effort-reward imbalance model (ERI) with an aim of identifying employees at risk of illness. Male Australian dairy farmers (N=66) completed the Perceived Stress Scale, Work related Questions II & III, Eysenck Personality Questionnaire Revised--Short and demographic questions and provided morning saliva samples (at awakening and 30 min post awakening) on a working day, which were subsequently analysed for cortisol and salivary immunoglobulin A (sIgA) concentration levels. A high percentage (45.5%) of the sample reported an imbalance between efforts and rewards in the workplace that may place them 'at risk' for ill-health. After controlling for disposition, sIgA scores were more successfully predicted by the ERI than the cortisol assessments. Although both efforts and rewards were significantly associated with sIgA, efforts were most strongly associated. The dispositional trait overcommitment, did not moderate the experience of stress on the physiologic indices. The current investigation supports the continued use of sIgA in studies that use biomarkers to assess occupational stress. ERI ratio scores >1 aligned with previous findings that suggest elevated risk of illness for these employees. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  2. Aging and Cardiometabolic Risk in European HEMS Pilots: An Assessment of Occupational Old-Age Limits as a Regulatory Risk Management Strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Hans; Nowak, Dennis; Herbig, Britta

    2017-12-11

    Old-age limits are imposed in some occupations in an effort to ensure public safety. In aviation, the "Age 60 Rule" limits permissible flight operations conducted by pilots aged 60 and over. Using a retrospective cohort design, we assessed this rule's validity by comparing age-related change rates of cardiometabolic incapacitation risk markers in European helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) pilots near age 60 with those in younger pilots. Specifically, individual clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiogram (ECG)-based risk markers and an overall cardiovascular event risk score were determined from aeromedical examination records of 66 German, Austrian, Polish, and Czech HEMS pilots (average follow-up 8.52 years). Risk marker change rates were assessed using linear mixed models and generalized additive models. Body mass index increases over time were slower in pilots near age 60 compared to younger pilots, and fasting glucose levels increased only in the latter. Whereas the lipid profile remained unchanged in the latter, it improved in the former. An ECG-based arrhythmia risk marker increased in younger pilots, which persisted in the older pilots. Six-month risk of a fatal cardiovascular event (in or out of cockpit) was estimated between 0% and 0.3%. Between 41% and 95% of risk marker variability was due to unexplained time-stable between-person differences. To conclude, the cardiometabolic risk marker profile of HEMS pilots appears to improve over time in pilots near age 60, compared to younger pilots. Given large stable interindividual differences, we recommend individualized risk assessment of HEMS pilots near age 60 instead of general grounding. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  4. Human and animal health risk assessments of chemicals in the food chain: comparative aspects and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorne, J L C M; Fink-Gremmels, J

    2013-08-01

    Chemicals from anthropogenic and natural origins enter animal feed, human food and water either as undesirable contaminants or as part of the components of a diet. Over the last five decades, considerable efforts and progress to develop methodologies to protect humans and animals against potential risks associated with exposure to such potentially toxic chemicals have been made. This special issue presents relevant methodological developments and examples of risk assessments of undesirable substances in the food chain integrating the animal health and the human health perspective and refers to recent Opinions of the Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain (CONTAM) of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). This introductory review aims to give a comparative account of the risk assessment steps used in human health and animal health risk assessments for chemicals in the food chain and provides a critical view of the data gaps and future perspectives for this cross-disciplinary field. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Priority setting for risk assessment-The benefit of human experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonzo, Cristina; Laborde, Amalia

    2005-01-01

    The chemical risk assessment process plays an essential role in the potential human health risk evaluation. Setting priorities for this purpose is critical for better use of the available human and material resources. It has been generally accepted that all new chemicals require safety evaluation before manufacture and sale. This is a difficult task due to the large number of chemicals directly consumed by man, as well as those that are widely used. At present, more than 50% of chemicals do not have the minimum data requirements for risk assessment. Production and release volumes are well-established prioritization criteria, although volume itself does not directly reflect the likelihood of human exposure. This quantitative approach applied in setting priorities may be influenced by human experience. Human data provided by epidemiological investigations have been accepted as the most credible evidence for human toxicity although analytical studies are expensive and require long-term follow up. Unfortunately, some epidemiological studies continue to have difficulties with exposure documentation, controlling bias and confounding, and are not able to provide predictions of risk until humans are exposed. Clinical toxicology services and Poison Centres around the world accumulate a great amount of toxicological-related information that may contribute to the evidence-based medicine and research and so collaborate with all the risk assessment disciplines. The information obtained from these services and centers has the potential to prioritize existing chemical assessment processes or to influence scheduling of classes of chemicals. Prioritization process may be improved by evaluating Poisons Centres statistics about frequency of cases, severity of effects, detection of unusual circumstances of exposure, as well as vulnerable sub-populations. International efforts for the harmonization of these data offer a useful tool to take advantage of this global information. Case

  6. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  7. Application of probabilistic risk assessment to nuclear fuel reprocessing at the Savannah River Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durant, W.S.

    1980-01-01

    The Savannah River Laboratory has developed an integrated risk assessment methodology that has been applied to systems in the nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities at the Savannah River Plant. The methodology can be applied to several types of design and operational problems. Basically, the analysis is subdivided into individual modules that can be either utilized separately or integrated into an overall risk analysis. Computer codes and computer data banks are utilized extensively to minimize the manual effort. The flow of information begins with a definition of the system to be analyzed followed by an evaluation of sources of fault information, storage of this information in data banks, design analysis and data treatment, risk calculations, and end product options

  8. The role of cognitive effort in subjective reward devaluation and risky decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apps, Matthew A J; Grima, Laura L; Manohar, Sanjay; Husain, Masud

    2015-11-20

    Motivation is underpinned by cost-benefit valuations where costs-such as physical effort or outcome risk-are subjectively weighed against available rewards. However, in many environments risks pertain not to the variance of outcomes, but to variance in the possible levels of effort required to obtain rewards (effort risks). Moreover, motivation is often guided by the extent to which cognitive-not physical-effort devalues rewards (effort discounting). Yet, very little is known about the mechanisms that underpin the influence of cognitive effort risks or discounting on motivation. We used two cost-benefit decision-making tasks to probe subjective sensitivity to cognitive effort (number of shifts of spatial attention) and to effort risks. Our results show that shifts of spatial attention when monitoring rapidly presented visual stimuli are perceived as effortful and devalue rewards. Additionally, most people are risk-averse, preferring safe, known amounts of effort over risky offers. However, there was no correlation between their effort and risk sensitivity. We show for the first time that people are averse to variance in the possible amount of cognitive effort to be exerted. These results suggest that cognitive effort sensitivity and risk sensitivity are underpinned by distinct psychological and neurobiological mechanisms.

  9. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  10. Are engineered nano iron oxide particles safe? an environmental risk assessment by probabilistic exposure, effects and risk modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan; Deng, Lei; Caballero-Guzman, Alejandro; Nowack, Bernd

    2016-12-01

    Nano iron oxide particles are beneficial to our daily lives through their use in paints, construction materials, biomedical imaging and other industrial fields. However, little is known about the possible risks associated with the current exposure level of engineered nano iron oxides (nano-FeOX) to organisms in the environment. The goal of this study was to predict the release of nano-FeOX to the environment and assess their risks for surface waters in the EU and Switzerland. The material flows of nano-FeOX to technical compartments (waste incineration and waste water treatment plants) and to the environment were calculated with a probabilistic modeling approach. The mean value of the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of nano-FeOX in surface waters in the EU for a worst-case scenario (no particle sedimentation) was estimated to be 28 ng/l. Using a probabilistic species sensitivity distribution, the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) was determined from ecotoxicological data. The risk characterization ratio, calculated by dividing the PEC by PNEC values, was used to characterize the risks. The mean risk characterization ratio was predicted to be several orders of magnitude smaller than 1 (1.4 × 10 - 4 ). Therefore, this modeling effort indicates that only a very limited risk is posed by the current release level of nano-FeOX to organisms in surface waters. However, a better understanding of the hazards of nano-FeOX to the organisms in other ecosystems (such as sediment) needs to be assessed to determine the overall risk of these particles to the environment.

  11. Non-Chemical Stressors and Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Current Initiatives and Potential Air Pollutant Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Ari S.; Sax, Sonja N.; Wason, Susan C.; Campleman, Sharan L.

    2011-01-01

    Regulatory agencies are under increased pressure to consider broader public health concerns that extend to multiple pollutant exposures, multiple exposure pathways, and vulnerable populations. Specifically, cumulative risk assessment initiatives have stressed the importance of considering both chemical and non-chemical stressors, such as socioeconomic status (SES) and related psychosocial stress, in evaluating health risks. The integration of non-chemical stressors into a cumulative risk assessment framework has been largely driven by evidence of health disparities across different segments of society that may also bear a disproportionate risk from chemical exposures. This review will discuss current efforts to advance the field of cumulative risk assessment, highlighting some of the major challenges, discussed within the construct of the traditional risk assessment paradigm. Additionally, we present a summary of studies of potential interactions between social stressors and air pollutants on health as an example of current research that supports the incorporation of non-chemical stressors into risk assessment. The results from these studies, while suggestive of possible interactions, are mixed and hindered by inconsistent application of social stress indicators. Overall, while there have been significant advances, further developments across all of the risk assessment stages (i.e., hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response, and risk characterization) are necessary to provide a scientific basis for regulatory actions and effective community interventions, particularly when considering non-chemical stressors. A better understanding of the biological underpinnings of social stress on disease and implications for chemical-based dose-response relationships is needed. Furthermore, when considering non-chemical stressors, an appropriate metric, or series of metrics, for risk characterization is also needed. Cumulative risk assessment research will benefit

  12. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-01-01

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

  13. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  14. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  15. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  16. Aqueduct: an interactive tool to empower global water risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reig, Paul; Gassert, Francis

    2013-04-01

    The Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas (Aqueduct) is a publicly available, global database and interactive tool that maps indicators of water related risks for decision makers worldwide. Aqueduct makes use of the latest geo-statistical modeling techniques to compute a composite index and translate the most recently available hydrological data into practical information on water related risks for companies, investors, and governments alike. Twelve global indicators are grouped into a Water Risk Framework designed in response to the growing concerns from private sector actors around water scarcity, water quality, climate change, and increasing demand for freshwater. The Aqueduct framework includes indicators of water stress, variability in supply, storage, flood, drought, groundwater, water quality and social conflict, addressing both spatial and temporal variation in water hazards. It organizes indicators into three categories of risk that bring together multiple dimensions of water related risk into comprehensive aggregated scores, which allow for dynamic weighting to capture users' unique exposure to water hazards. All information is compiled into an online, open access platform, from which decision-makers can view indicators, scores, and maps, conduct global risk assessments, and export data and shape files for further analysis. Companies can use this tool to evaluate their exposure to water risks across operations and supply chains, investors to assess water-related risks in their portfolio, and public-sector actors to better understand water security. Additionally, the open nature of the data and maps allow other organizations to build off of this effort with new research, for example in the areas of water-energy or water-food relationships. This presentation will showcase the Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas online tool and the features and functionalities it offers, as well as explain how it can be used for both private and public sector applications. The session will

  17. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  18. A cross-sectional study of the relationship between job demand-control, effort-reward imbalance and cardiovascular heart disease risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Söderberg Mia

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This cross-sectional study explored relationships between psychosocial work environment, captured by job demand-control (JDC and effort-reward imbalance (ERI, and seven cardiovascular heart disease (CHD risk factors in a general population. Method The sampled consists of randomly-selected men and women from Gothenburg, Sweden and the city’s surrounding metropolitan areas. Associations between psychosocial variables and biomarkers were analysed with multiple linear regression adjusted for age, smoking, education and occupational status. Results The study included 638 men and 668 women aged 24–71. Analysis between JDC and CHD risk factors illustrated that, for men, JDC was associated with impaired scores in several biomarkers, especially among those in high strain jobs. For women, there were no relationships between JDC and biomarkers. In the analysis of links between ERI and CHD risk factors, most associations tested null. The only findings were raised triglycerides and BMI among men in the fourth quartile of the ERI-ratio distribution, and lowered LDL-cholesterol for women. An complementary ERI analysis, combining high/low effort and reward into categories, illustrated lowered triglycerides and elevated HDL-cholesterol values among women reporting high efforts and high rewards, compared to women experiencing low effort and high reward. Conclusions There were some associations between psychosocial stressors and CHD risk factors. The cross-sectional design did not allow conclusions about causality but some results indicated gender differences regarding sensitivity to work stressors and also how the models might capture different psychosocial dimensions.

  19. Living systematic reviews: 2. Combining human and machine effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, James; Noel-Storr, Anna; Marshall, Iain; Wallace, Byron; McDonald, Steven; Mavergames, Chris; Glasziou, Paul; Shemilt, Ian; Synnot, Anneliese; Turner, Tari; Elliott, Julian

    2017-11-01

    New approaches to evidence synthesis, which use human effort and machine automation in mutually reinforcing ways, can enhance the feasibility and sustainability of living systematic reviews. Human effort is a scarce and valuable resource, required when automation is impossible or undesirable, and includes contributions from online communities ("crowds") as well as more conventional contributions from review authors and information specialists. Automation can assist with some systematic review tasks, including searching, eligibility assessment, identification and retrieval of full-text reports, extraction of data, and risk of bias assessment. Workflows can be developed in which human effort and machine automation can each enable the other to operate in more effective and efficient ways, offering substantial enhancement to the productivity of systematic reviews. This paper describes and discusses the potential-and limitations-of new ways of undertaking specific tasks in living systematic reviews, identifying areas where these human/machine "technologies" are already in use, and where further research and development is needed. While the context is living systematic reviews, many of these enabling technologies apply equally to standard approaches to systematic reviewing. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  1. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  2. Space shuttle main propulsion pressurization system probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plastiras, J.K.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports that, in post-Challenger discussions with Congressional Committees and the National Research Council Risk Management Oversight Panel, criticism was levied against NASA because of the inability to prioritize the 1300+ single point failures. In the absence of a ranking it was difficult to determine where special effort was needed in failure evaluation, in design improvement, in management review of problems, and in flight readiness reviews. The belief was that the management system was overwhelmed by the quantity of critical hardware items that were on the Critical Items List (CIL) and that insufficient attention was paid to the items that required it. Congressional staff members from Congressman Markey's committee who have oversight responsibilities in the nuclear industry, and specifically over the nuclear power supplies for NASA's Galileo and Ulysses missions, felt very strongly that the addition of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to the existing Failure Mode Effects Analysis/Hazard Analysis (FMEA/HA) methods was exceedingly important. Specifically, the Markey committee recognized that the inductive, qualitative component-oriented FMEA could be supplemented by the deductive, quantitative systems-oriented PRA. Furthermore, they felt that the PRA approach had matured to the extent that it could be used to assess risk, even with limited shuttle-specific failure data. NASA responded with arguments that the FMEA/HA had illuminated all significant failure modes satisfactorily and that no failure rate data base was available to support the PRA approach

  3. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  4. [Regional atmospheric environment risk source identification and assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Chun; Chen, Wei-Ping; Ma, Chun; Zhan, Shui-Fen; Jiao, Wen-Tao

    2012-12-01

    Identification and assessment for atmospheric environment risk source plays an important role in regional atmospheric risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control. The likelihood exposure and consequence assessment method (LEC method) and the Delphi method were employed to build a fast and effective method for identification and assessment of regional atmospheric environment risk sources. This method was applied to the case study of a large coal transportation port in North China. The assessment results showed that the risk characteristics and the harm degree of regional atmospheric environment risk source were in line with the actual situation. Fast and effective identification and assessment of risk source has laid an important foundation for the regional atmospheric environmental risk assessment and regional atmospheric pollution prevention and control.

  5. Use of new scientific developments in regulatory risk assessments: challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarazona, Jose V

    2013-07-01

    Since the 1990s, science based ecological risk assessments constitute an essential tool for supporting decision making in the regulatory context. Using the European REACH Regulation as example, this article presents the challenges and opportunities for new scientific developments within the area of chemical control and environmental protection. These challenges can be sorted out in 3 main related topics (sets). In the short term, the challenges are directly associated with the regulatory requirements, required for facilitating a scientifically sound implementation of the different obligations for industry and authorities. It is important to mention that although the actual tools are different due to the regulatory requirements, the basic needs are still the same as those addressed in the early 1990s: understanding the ecological relevance of the predicted effects, including the uncertainty, and facilitating the link with the socio-economic assessment. The second set of challenges covers the opportunities for getting an added value from the regulatory efforts. The information compiled through REACH registration and notification processes is analyzed as source for new integrative developments for assessing the combined chemical risk at the regional level. Finally, the article discusses the challenge of inverting the process and developing risk assessment methods focusing on the receptor, the individual or ecosystem, instead of on the stressor or source. These approaches were limited in the past due to the lack of information, but the identification and dissemination of standard information, including uses, manufacturing sites, physical-chemical, environmental, ecotoxicological, and toxicological properties as well as operational conditions and risk management measures for thousands of chemicals, combined by the knowledge gathered through large scale monitoring programs and spatial information systems is generating new opportunities. The challenge is liking

  6. OPPT workplan risk assessment for Trichloroethylene ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The assessment will focus on uses of TCE as a degreaser and in consumer products used by individuals in the arts/crafts field. Given the range of endpoints (cancer, non-cancer; the latter includes potential effects on the developing fetus), it is expected that susceptible populations would be children (as bystanders physically near the actual consumer use of the products) and adults of all ages (including pregnant women). Thus, the assessment will focus on all human/lifestages. EPA anticipates issuing draft risk assessments for public review and comment as they are completed. At the conclusion of the review process, if an assessment of specific uses indicates significant risk, EPA will evaluate and pursue appropriate risk reduction actions, as warranted. If an assessment indicates no significant risk, EPA will conclude its current work on assessment of those specified targeted uses of that chemical. Over time, additional chemicals will be added to the work plan as more data are developed and more chemicals screened.

  7. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  8. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  9. Risk associated with the release of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes into the environment in an effort to control Dengue.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justine V Murray

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In an effort to eliminate dengue, a successful technology was developed with the stable introduction of the obligate intracellular bacteria Wolbachia pipientis into the mosquito Aedes aegypti to reduce its ability to transmit dengue fever due to life shortening and inhibition of viral replication effects. An analysis of risk was required before considering release of the modified mosquito into the environment.Methods: Expert knowledge and a risk assessment framework was used to identify risk associated with the release of the modified mosquito. Individual and group expert elicitation was performed to identify potential hazards. A Bayesian network (BN was developed to capture the relationship between hazards and the likelihood of events occurring. Risk was calculated from the expert likelihood estimates populating the BN and the consequence estimates elicited from experts.Results: The risk model for ‘Don’t Achieve Release’ provided an estimated 46% likelihood that the release would not occur by a nominated time, but generated an overall risk rating of very low. The ability to obtain compliance had the greatest influence on the likelihood of release occurring. The risk model for ‘Cause More Harm’ provided a 12.5% likelihood that more harm would result from the release, but the overall risk was considered negligible. The efficacy of mosquito management had the most influence, with the perception that the threat of dengue fever had been eliminated, resulting in less household mosquito control, was scored as the highest ranked individual hazard (albeit low risk.Conclusions: The risk analysis was designed to incorporate the interacting complexity of hazards that may affect the release of the technology into the environment. The risk analysis was a small but important implementation phase in the success of this innovative research introducing a new technology to combat dengue transmission in the environment.

  10. Risk assessment methodology for evaluating releases of radioactively contaminated materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.

    1993-01-01

    Extensive decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) activities are expected to be required in the near future in association with license termination of nuclear power facilities and cleanup efforts at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) weapons production facilities. In advance of these D ampersand D activities, it is becoming increasingly urgent that standards be established for the release of materials with residual radioactive contamination. The only standards for unrestricted release that currently exist address surface contamination. The methods used to justify those standards were developed some 20 yr ago and may not satisfy today's criteria. Furthermore, the basis of setting standards has moved away from the traditional open-quotes instrumentation-basedclose quotes concept toward a open-quotes risk-basedclose quotes approach. Therefore, as new release standards are developed, it will be necessary that risk assessment methodology consistent with modern concepts be incorporated into the process. This paper discusses recent developments in risk methodology and issues and concerns regarding the future development of standards for the release of radioactively contaminated materials

  11. L-Band Digital Aeronautical Communications System Engineering - Initial Safety and Security Risk Assessment and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelkin, Natalie; Henriksen, Stephen

    2011-01-01

    This document is being provided as part of ITT's NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: "New ATM Requirements--Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development." ITT has completed a safety hazard analysis providing a preliminary safety assessment for the proposed L-band (960 to 1164 MHz) terrestrial en route communications system. The assessment was performed following the guidelines outlined in the Federal Aviation Administration Safety Risk Management Guidance for System Acquisitions document. The safety analysis did not identify any hazards with an unacceptable risk, though a number of hazards with a medium risk were documented. This effort represents a preliminary safety hazard analysis and notes the triggers for risk reassessment. A detailed safety hazards analysis is recommended as a follow-on activity to assess particular components of the L-band communication system after the technology is chosen and system rollout timing is determined. The security risk analysis resulted in identifying main security threats to the proposed system as well as noting additional threats recommended for a future security analysis conducted at a later stage in the system development process. The document discusses various security controls, including those suggested in the COCR Version 2.0.

  12. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  13. Management of nonregulatory driven program risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, R.R.; Hutterman, L.L.

    1995-01-01

    Evaluation of program risk is a significant part of any environmental restoration (ER) activity. While significant efforts have been made to assess risk to human health and the environment, program risks outside of CERCLA are handled on a fire drill basis. This paper explains a process that looks at program risk, directs mitigation efforts in the most useful path, and focuses corrective actions to obtain the most benefits from the resources used

  14. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  15. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  16. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  17. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  18. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A; Euling, Susan Y; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P

    2013-09-15

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA)--i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on "augmentation" of weight of evidence--using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards "integration" of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for "expansion" of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual "reorientation" of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A., E-mail: chiu.weihsueh@epa.gov [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States); Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P. [National Center for Environmental Assessment, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, 20460 (United States)

    2013-09-15

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes.

  20. Approaches to advancing quantitative human health risk assessment of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Euling, Susan Y.; Scott, Cheryl Siegel; Subramaniam, Ravi P.

    2013-01-01

    The contribution of genomics and associated technologies to human health risk assessment for environmental chemicals has focused largely on elucidating mechanisms of toxicity, as discussed in other articles in this issue. However, there is interest in moving beyond hazard characterization to making more direct impacts on quantitative risk assessment (QRA) — i.e., the determination of toxicity values for setting exposure standards and cleanup values. We propose that the evolution of QRA of environmental chemicals in the post-genomic era will involve three, somewhat overlapping phases in which different types of approaches begin to mature. The initial focus (in Phase I) has been and continues to be on “augmentation” of weight of evidence — using genomic and related technologies qualitatively to increase the confidence in and scientific basis of the results of QRA. Efforts aimed towards “integration” of these data with traditional animal-based approaches, in particular quantitative predictors, or surrogates, for the in vivo toxicity data to which they have been anchored are just beginning to be explored now (in Phase II). In parallel, there is a recognized need for “expansion” of the use of established biomarkers of susceptibility or risk of human diseases and disorders for QRA, particularly for addressing the issues of cumulative assessment and population risk. Ultimately (in Phase III), substantial further advances could be realized by the development of novel molecular and pathway-based biomarkers and statistical and in silico models that build on anticipated progress in understanding the pathways of human diseases and disorders. Such efforts would facilitate a gradual “reorientation” of QRA towards approaches that more directly link environmental exposures to human outcomes

  1. Impact of shutdown risk on risk-based assessment of technical specifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deriot, S.

    1992-10-01

    This paper describes the current work performed by the Research and Development Division of EDF concerning risk-based assessment of Operating Technical Specifications (OTS). The current risk-based assessment of OTS at EDF is presented. Then, the level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of unit 3 of the Paluel nuclear power station (called PSA 1300) is described. It is fully computerized and takes into account the risk in shutdown states. A case study is presented. It shows that the fact of considering shutdown risk suggests that the current OTS should be modified

  2. Effort assessment in the development of information systems projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Živadinović Jovan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There is a great lack of methods and techniques in the software development process itself, as well as the lack of the appropriate tools that would make it more efficient. The significance of the problem is repeatedly emphasized by the need to ensure a high quality of software and software-based systems. The main objective of this work is to develop and systematize the original formal procedure for assessing the development of information systems in the early stages of the software life cycle, through metrics of the data model. We calculate the metrics of data model by using data that can be read off from a base data model, which is represented with an Entity-Relationship (ER diagram that is defined with four basic concepts: entities, relationships, attributes of entities or relationships and values. The idea is to present the complexity of the process with a function of a number of these concepts and a number of attributes for entity types. Assessment techniques represent the basis for planning and successful performance of software projects. Statistical method was used in this paper and these assessment processes go under the category of empirical parametric methods, although they have some characteristics of the expert estimation method. A developed assessment process represents a step in the efforts to reach suitable measures which we would use to assess the size and complexity of the data model and also to estimate the amount of costs and resources necessary for the development of information systems. Likewise, certain metrics are developed. By being familiar with the data model, we can use these metrics to quantify characteristics of an information system as a whole in the logic design phase. Suggested metrics were tested on specific models and the results are shown here.

  3. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  4. Insights from Guideline for Performance of Internal Flooding Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IFPRA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joo Eon

    2009-01-01

    An internal flooding (IF) risk assessment refers to the quantitative probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) treatment of flooding as a result of pipe and tank breaks inside the plants, as well as from other recognized flood sources. The industry consensus standard for Internal Events Probabilistic Risk Assessment (ASME-RA-Sb-2005) includes high-level and supporting technical requirements for developing internal flooding probabilistic risk assessment (IFPRA). This industry standard is endorsed in Regulatory Guide 1.200, Revision 1 as an acceptable approach for addressing the risk contribution from IF events for risk informed applications that require U.S. Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC) approval. In 2006, EPRI published a draft report for IFPRA that addresses the requirements of the ASME PRA consensus standard and have made efforts to refine and update the final EPRI IFPRA guideline. Westinghouse has performed an IFPRA analysis for several nuclear power plants (NPPs), such as Watts Bar and Fort Calhoun, using the draft EPRI guidelines for development of an IFPRA. Proprietary methodologies have been developed to apply the EPRI guidelines. The objectives of the draft report for IFPRA guideline are to: · Provide guidance for PSA practitioners in the performance of the elements of a PRA associated with internal flooding events consistent with the current state of the art for internal flooding PRA · Provide guidance regarding acceptable approaches that is sufficient to meeting the requirements of the ASME PRA Standard associated with internal flooding · Incorporate lessons learned in the performance of internal flooding PRAs including those identified as pilot applications of earlier drafts of this procedures guide The purpose of this paper is to present a vision for domestic nuclear power plants' IFPRA by comparing the method of the draft EPRI guidelines with the existing IFPRA method for domestic NPPs

  5. Insights from Guideline for Performance of Internal Flooding Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IFPRA)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Sun Yeong; Yang, Joo Eon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    An internal flooding (IF) risk assessment refers to the quantitative probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) treatment of flooding as a result of pipe and tank breaks inside the plants, as well as from other recognized flood sources. The industry consensus standard for Internal Events Probabilistic Risk Assessment (ASME-RA-Sb-2005) includes high-level and supporting technical requirements for developing internal flooding probabilistic risk assessment (IFPRA). This industry standard is endorsed in Regulatory Guide 1.200, Revision 1 as an acceptable approach for addressing the risk contribution from IF events for risk informed applications that require U.S. Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC) approval. In 2006, EPRI published a draft report for IFPRA that addresses the requirements of the ASME PRA consensus standard and have made efforts to refine and update the final EPRI IFPRA guideline. Westinghouse has performed an IFPRA analysis for several nuclear power plants (NPPs), such as Watts Bar and Fort Calhoun, using the draft EPRI guidelines for development of an IFPRA. Proprietary methodologies have been developed to apply the EPRI guidelines. The objectives of the draft report for IFPRA guideline are to: {center_dot} Provide guidance for PSA practitioners in the performance of the elements of a PRA associated with internal flooding events consistent with the current state of the art for internal flooding PRA {center_dot} Provide guidance regarding acceptable approaches that is sufficient to meeting the requirements of the ASME PRA Standard associated with internal flooding {center_dot} Incorporate lessons learned in the performance of internal flooding PRAs including those identified as pilot applications of earlier drafts of this procedures guide The purpose of this paper is to present a vision for domestic nuclear power plants' IFPRA by comparing the method of the draft EPRI guidelines with the existing IFPRA method for domestic NPPs.

  6. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  7. TA-54 (Area G) Risk Assessment from Extreme Wildfire Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linn, Rodman Ray [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Koo, Eunmo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Honig, Kristen Ann [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); White, Judith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Funk, David John [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-08-10

    Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and surrounding areas have been exposed to at least four significant wildfires since 1977 and there have been numerous others within 50 miles of LANL. Based on this history, wildfires are considered a risk to LANL facilities and their contents. While many LANL facilities are at risk to wildfire to some degree, they are found in a wide variety of conditions, thus they have varying sensitivities to wildfires. Additionally, LANL facilities have various functions and different assets, so they have a wide range of values or consequences if compromised. Therefore, determining the risks and precautions that are warranted to mitigate these risks must be done on a case-by-case basis. In an effort to assess possible wildfire risks to sensitive materials stored in a Perma-Con® in dome TA-54-0375, a conventional fire risk analysis was performed. This conventional risk analysis is documented in Engineering Evaluation Form AP-FIRE-001-FM1, which is dated 9/28/2015 and was titled ‘Wildland Fire Exposure Evaluation for Building TA-54-0375’ (Hall 2015). This analysis acknowledged that there was significant chance of wildfire in the vicinity of TA-54-0375, but the amount of combustible material surrounding the building was deemed low. The wildland fuels that were closest to the building were largely fine fuels and were not expected to have significant duration of heat release. The prevailing winds at this location are from the south and southwest and the nearest significant upwind fuels (tree crowns or unmown grasses) are at least 300 feet away. Based on these factors the conventional wildland fire risk to TA-54-0375 was deemed minimal, “Acceptable As Is, No Action Required.” This risk evaluation was based on a combined assessment of low probability of wildfires arriving at the site from other directions (where higher fuel loadings might be present) as well as the effective setback of fuels in the direction that fire is

  8. Insurance World in Transition: Changes in Global Risk Taking and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2015-04-01

    Catastrophe insurance risk assessment, risk taking, and regulation has evolved over the last 20 years and is gearing up for significant further change in the years ahead. Changes in regulation and influx of capital have put profit margins for catastrophe risk products under pressure despite the fact that changes in climate as well as increasing insurance penetration is expected to heighten demand. As a result, reinsurance strategies are moving away from catastrophe risk. In addition, lower margins require cheaper and more efficient risk assessment methods and processes which are contrary to evolving analytical tools and methods that had increased expenses in line with growing margins over the last decade. New capital providers are less familiar with and less willing to accept complex supply chains for risk management, relationship-driven business and tedious data exchange and management processes. Risk takers claim new measures and ask for more flexibility in the use of tools. The current concepts of catastrophe insurance risk assessment are hence under thorough scrutiny. This presentation deals with the changing landscape in catastrophe insurance risk assessment and risk hedging and discusses changes in catastrophe risk assessment products and demand. How likely is it that private, small and nimble hazard and risk consulting groups - increasingly emanating from larger science organizations - will replace large established firms in their role to assess risk? What role do public-private academic partnerships play in assuming risk for catastrophe insurance and what role could they play in the future? What are the opportunities and downsides of the current changes in risk taking and hedging? What is needed from the scientific community in order to fill the gaps in risk management and who is likely to take advantage of the current changes?

  9. Assessment of mercury health risks to adults from coal combustion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Fthenakis, V.M.; DePhillips, M.P.; Viren, J.; Saroff, L.

    1994-05-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing, for the U.S. Congress, a report evaluating the need to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from electric utilities. This study, to be completed in 1995, will have important health and economic implications. In support of these efforts, the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, sponsored a risk assessment project at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to evaluate methylmercury (MeHg) hazards independently. In the BNL study, health risks to adults resulting from Hg emissions from a hypothetical 1000 MW{sub e} coal-fired power plant were estimated using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. The approach draws on the extant knowledge in each of the important steps in the calculation chain from emissions to health effects. Estimated results at key points in the chain were compared with actual measurements to help validate the modeled estimates. Two cases were considered: the baseline case (no local impacts), and the impact case (maximum local power-plant impact). The BNL study showed that the effects of emissions of a single power plant may double the background exposures to MeHg resulting from consuming fish obtained from a localized area near the power plant. Many implicit and explicit sources of uncertainty exist in this analysis. Those that appear to be most in need of improvement include data on doses and responses for potentially sensitive subpopulations (e.g., fetal exposures). Rather than considering hypothetical situations, it would also be preferable to assess the risks associated with actual coal-fired power plants and the nearby sensitive water bodies and susceptible subpopulations. Finally, annual total Hg emissions from coal burning and from other anthropogenic sources are still uncertain; this makes it difficult to estimate the effects of U.S. coal burning on global Hg concentration levels, especially over the long term.

  10. Effort-reward imbalance at work and the risk of antidepressant treatment in the Danish workforce

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Maj Britt D.; Madsen, Ida E. H.; Aust, Birgit

    2016-01-01

    Background: Previous studies have shown that high effort-reward imbalance (ERI) at work is a risk factor for the onset of self-reported depressive symptoms. In this study, we examined whether ERI predicts risk of treatment with antidepressant medication in a representative sample of the Danish...... workforce. Methods: We linked survey data on ERI and covariates of 4541 participants from the Danish Work Environment Cohort Study 2000 with the Danish National Prescription Registry that includes all legally purchased prescription drugs at pharmacies in Denmark since 1995. Participants with a history....... Results: A total of 309 (6.8%) participants started antidepressant treatment during follow-up. Exposure to ERI at baseline was not related to risk of antidepressant treatment (hazard ratio: 0.91, 95% CI=0.81–1.03 after adjustment for potential confounders). Limitations: The use of antidepressant treatment...

  11. Health risk assessment of exposure to ionizing radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, Hiromitsu

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential process for evaluating the human health effects of exposure to ionizing radiation and for determining acceptable levels of exposure. There are two major components of radiation risk assessment: a measure of exposure level and a measure of disease occurrence. For quantitative estimation of health risks, it is important to evaluate the association between exposure and disease occurrence using epidemiological or experimental data. In these approaches, statistical risk models are used particularly for estimating cancer risks related to exposure to low levels of radiation. This paper presents a summary of basic models and methods of risk assessment for studying exposure-risk relationships. Moreover, quantitative risk estimates are subject to several sources of uncertainty due to inherent limitations in risk assessment studies. This paper also discusses the limitations of radiation risk assessment. (author)

  12. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  13. A 3S Risk ?3SR? Assessment Approach for Nuclear Power: Safety Security and Safeguards.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forrest, Robert; Reinhardt, Jason Christian; Wheeler, Timothy A.; Williams, Adam David

    2017-11-01

    Safety-focused risk analysis and assessment approaches struggle to adequately include malicious, deliberate acts against the nuclear power industry's fissile and waste material, infrastructure, and facilities. Further, existing methods do not adequately address non- proliferation issues. Treating safety, security, and safeguards concerns independently is inefficient because, at best, it may not take explicit advantage of measures that provide benefits against multiple risk domains, and, at worst, it may lead to implementations that increase overall risk due to incompatibilities. What is needed is an integrated safety, security and safeguards risk (or "3SR") framework for describing and assessing nuclear power risks that can enable direct trade-offs and interactions in order to inform risk management processes -- a potential paradigm shift in risk analysis and management. These proceedings of the Sandia ePRA Workshop (held August 22-23, 2017) are an attempt to begin the discussions and deliberations to extend and augment safety focused risk assessment approaches to include security concerns and begin moving towards a 3S Risk approach. Safeguards concerns were not included in this initial workshop and are left to future efforts. This workshop focused on four themes in order to begin building out a the safety and security portions of the 3S Risk toolkit: 1. Historical Approaches and Tools 2. Current Challenges 3. Modern Approaches 4. Paths Forward and Next Steps This report is organized along the four areas described above, and concludes with a summary of key points. 2 Contact: rforres@sandia.gov; +1 (925) 294-2728

  14. Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

    2017-04-01

    The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out

  15. Safety analysis, risk assessment, and risk acceptance criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamali, K.

    1997-01-01

    This paper discusses a number of topics that relate safety analysis as documented in the Department of Energy (DOE) safety analysis reports (SARs), probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) as characterized primarily in the context of the techniques that have assumed some level of formality in commercial nuclear power plant applications, and risk acceptance criteria as an outgrowth of PRA applications. DOE SARs of interest are those that are prepared for DOE facilities under DOE Order 5480.23 and the implementing guidance in DOE STD-3009-94. It must be noted that the primary area of application for DOE STD-3009 is existing DOE facilities and that certain modifications of the STD-3009 approach are necessary in SARs for new facilities. Moreover, it is the hazard analysis (HA) and accident analysis (AA) portions of these SARs that are relevant to the present discussions. Although PRAs can be qualitative in nature, PRA as used in this paper refers more generally to all quantitative risk assessments and their underlying methods. HA as used in this paper refers more generally to all qualitative risk assessments and their underlying methods that have been in use in hazardous facilities other than nuclear power plants. This discussion includes both quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methods. PRA has been used, improved, developed, and refined since the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) was published in 1975 by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Much debate has ensued since WASH-1400 on exactly what the role of PRA should be in plant design, reactor licensing, 'ensuring' plant and process safety, and a large number of other decisions that must be made for potentially hazardous activities. Of particular interest in this area is whether the risks quantified using PRA should be compared with numerical risk acceptance criteria (RACs) to determine whether a facility is 'safe.' Use of RACs requires quantitative estimates of consequence frequency and magnitude

  16. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  17. Risk assessment of soil contamination criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, C.M.; Marter, W.L.; Montaque, D.F.; Holton, G.A.

    1987-06-01

    Criteria have been developed to select radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at waste sites detailed analysis and risk assessment. These criteria were based on soil and water quality guidelines developed by various government agencies to determine if the criteria were appropriate. We performed a risk assessment of a hypothetical site which contained radioactive and nonradioactive contaminants at levels equal to the criteria values. Risks to the public from atmospheric, surface water, and groundwater exposure pathways were examined. Health risks to the public from atmospheric releases of radioactive and nonradioactive materials from a waste at soil criteria contamination levels are low. Health risks to the maximally exposed individual to chemical carcinogens are considerably below traditional EPA action levels. And health risks to the maximally exposed individual to atmospherically released radioactive contaminants is 1.88 x 10 -7 , more than a factor of 5 less than 10 -6 . Based on our atmospheric exposure pathways analysis and risk assessment, the applied soil criteria are appropriate for screening out unimportant risk contributors to human health from atmospheric exposure pathways. 13 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  18. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  19. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  20. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga

    2015-01-01

    investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost......-benefit analysis results that are modified by taking historical risk experience into account. This article seeks to add to this progress in risk assessment methodology in two ways: first it suggests to apply reference class forecasting (RCF) in a flexible way where the effort is focused on formulating the best...

  1. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  2. Strategy utilized for assessing baseline risks to human health from K-65 and metal oxide residues stored at the Fernald Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harmon, J.E.; Janke, R.C.

    1995-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) site in southwestern Ohio. The 425-hectare site consists of a former 55-hectare Production Area, an adjacent Waste Storage Area and various support facilities. From 1952 until 1989, the FEMP processed uranium into metallic open-quotes feedclose quotes materials for other DOE facilities in the nation's defense program. In accordance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA), the FEMP site is currently listed on the National Priorities List (NPL). To facilitate an expeditious cleanup effort, environmental issues associated with site cleanup are being managed under five operable units. This paper summarizes the risk assessment strategy employed to determine baseline human health risks associated with K-65 and metal oxide residues currently stored in Operable Unit 4. The K-65 and metal oxide residues were generated during the 1950s as a result of the extraction of uranium from uranium-bearing ores and concentrates. These residues are currently stored within Operable Unit 4 in concrete silos. Silos I and 2 contain approximately 6,120 cubic meters [m 3 ] (8,005 cubic yards [yd 3 ]) of K-65 residues, while silos 3 contains approximately 3890 m 3 (5,080 yd 3 ) of cold metal oxides. These concrete silos are beyond their design life and require remedial action. The risk assessment conducted for Operable Unit 4 constitutes the first detailed human health risk assessment to be approved by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the CERCLA clean-up effort at the FEMP Site. This paper discusses the FEMP's use of a Risk Information Quality Objective process in concert with the traditional risk assessment approach to determine baseline risk to human health and the environment posed by Operable Unit 4. A summary of the baseline risks to human health is also presented

  3. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  4. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  5. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  6. Effort-reward imbalance at work and the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors: cross-sectional survey in a sample of 36,127 public sector employees

    OpenAIRE

    Kouvonen, Anne; Kivimäki, Mika; Virtanen, Marianna; Heponiemi, Tarja; Elovainio, Marko; Pentti, Jaana; Linna, Anne; Vahtera, Jussi

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Background In occupational life, a mismatch between high expenditure of effort and receiving few rewards may promote the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors, however, there is insufficient evidence to support or refute this hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which the dimensions of the Effort-Reward Imbalance (ERI) model – effort, rewards and ERI – are associated with the co-occurrence of lifestyle risk factors. Methods Based on data from the Finnish Pu...

  7. Adverse health effects of high-effort/low-reward conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegrist, J

    1996-01-01

    In addition to the person-environment fit model (J. R. French, R. D. Caplan, & R. V. Harrison, 1982) and the demand-control model (R. A. Karasek & T. Theorell, 1990), a third theoretical concept is proposed to assess adverse health effects of stressful experience at work: the effort-reward imbalance model. The focus of this model is on reciprocity of exchange in occupational life where high-cost/low-gain conditions are considered particularly stressful. Variables measuring low reward in terms of low status control (e.g., lack of promotion prospects, job insecurity) in association with high extrinsic (e.g., work pressure) or intrinsic (personal coping pattern, e.g., high need for control) effort independently predict new cardiovascular events in a prospective study on blue-collar men. Furthermore, these variables partly explain prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (hypertension, atherogenic lipids) in 2 independent studies. Studying adverse health effects of high-effort/low-reward conditions seems well justified, especially in view of recent developments of the labor market.

  8. Assessment of Interpersonal Risk (AIR) in Adults with Learning Disabilities and Challenging Behaviour--Piloting a New Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Martin; McCue, Michael

    2013-01-01

    A new risk assessment tool, "Assessment of Interpersonal Risk" (AIR), was piloted and evaluated to measure risk factors and compatibility between individuals living in an assessment and treatment unit in one NHS area. The adults with learning disabilities in this unit had severe and enduring mental health problems and/or behaviour that is severely…

  9. A Systems-Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on Critical Infrastructures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakes, Benjamin Donald; Mattsson, Lars-Göran; Näsman, Per; Glazunov, Andrés Alayón

    2018-01-03

    Modern infrastructures are becoming increasingly dependent on electronic systems, leaving them more vulnerable to electrical surges or electromagnetic interference. Electromagnetic disturbances appear in nature, e.g., lightning and solar wind; however, they may also be generated by man-made technology to maliciously damage or disturb electronic equipment. This article presents a systematic risk assessment framework for identifying possible, consequential, and plausible intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI) attacks on an arbitrary distribution network infrastructure. In the absence of available data on IEMI occurrences, we find that a systems-based risk assessment is more useful than a probabilistic approach. We therefore modify the often applied definition of risk, i.e., a set of triplets containing scenario, probability, and consequence, to a set of quadruplets: scenario, resource requirements, plausibility, and consequence. Probability is "replaced" by resource requirements and plausibility, where the former is the minimum amount and type of equipment necessary to successfully carry out an attack scenario and the latter is a subjective assessment of the extent of the existence of attackers who possess the motivation, knowledge, and resources necessary to carry out the scenario. We apply the concept of intrusion areas and classify electromagnetic source technology according to key attributes. Worst-case scenarios are identified for different quantities of attacker resources. The most plausible and consequential of these are deemed the most important scenarios and should provide useful decision support in a countermeasures effort. Finally, an example of the proposed risk assessment framework, based on notional data, is provided on a hypothetical water distribution network. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Risk based knowledge assessments: towards a toolbox for managing key knowledge assets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bright, Clive

    2008-01-01

    Full text: It is now well acknowledged that considerable Knowledge Management (KM) issues are faced by national and international nuclear communities. Much of these problems relate to issues of an ageing workforce and the significantly reduced influx of new generation of nuclear engineers and scientists. The management discipline of KM contains a broad spectrum of methods and techniques. However, the effective implementation of a KM strategy requires the selection and deployment of appropriate and targeted approaches that are pertinent to the particular issues of the technical or business area within an organisation. A clear strategy is contingent upon an assessment of what are the knowledge areas and what are the key (knowledge) risk areas. In particular the following issues have to be addressed: 'what knowledge exists?', 'what is the nature and format of that knowledge?' and 'what knowledge is key to our continued, safe, and effective operation?'. Answers to such questions will enable an organisation to prioritise KM effort and employ subsequent KM approaches that are appropriate. Subsequent approaches ranging from the utilisation of information technologies, such as databases; knowledge retention methods; and the setting up of Community of Practices to share knowledge and experience. This paper considers a risk assessment based approach to KM. In so doing the paper extends work previously reported on an approach to conducting knowledge audits by considering the integration of that approach with approaches to (knowledge) risk assessment. The paper also provides a brief review of the various KM approaches that can act to reduce the level of risk faced by an organisation. The paper concludes by reflecting upon the role, value of deploying such a risk based approach. (author)

  11. Significance of earthquake risk in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sues, R.H.; Amico, P.J.; Campbell, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    During the last eight years, approximately 25 utility-sponsored probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) have been conducted for US nuclear reactors. Of these, ten have been published, seven of which have included complete seismic risk assessment. The results of the seven published PRAs are reviewed here in order to ascertain the significance of the risk due to earthquake initiating events. While PRA methodology has been in a state of development over the past seven years, and the results are subject to interpretation (as discussed in the paper), from the review conducted it is clear that earthquake-induced initiating events are important risk contributors. It is concluded that earthquake initiating events should not be dismissed, a priori, in any nuclear plant risk assessment. (orig.)

  12. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  13. Risk-assessment methodology for fast breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.

    1976-04-01

    The methods applied or proposed for risk assessment of nuclear reactors are reviewed, particularly with respect to their applicability for risk assessment of future commercial fast breeder reactors. All methods are based on the calculation of accident consequences for relatively few accident scenarios. The role and general impact of uncertainties in fast-reactor accident analysis are discussed. The discussion shows the need for improvement of the methodology. A generalized and improved risk-assessment methodology is outlined and proposed (accident-spectra-progression approach). The generalization consists primarily of an explicit treatment of uncertainties throughout the accident progression. The results of this method are obtained in form of consequence distributions. The width and shape of the distributions depend in part on the superposition of the uncertainties. The first moment of the consequence distribution gives an improved prediction of the ''average'' consequence. The higher-consequence moments can be used for consideration of risk aversion. The assessment of the risk of one or a certain number of nuclear reactors can only provide an ''isolated'' risk assessment. The general problem of safety risk assessment and its relation to public acceptance of certain modes of power production is a much broader problem area, which is also discussed

  14. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  15. Evaluating Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Interactions with Computational Models in Supporting Cumulative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Yu-Mei; Clewell, Harvey; Campbell, Jerry; Andersen, Melvin

    2011-01-01

    Simultaneous or sequential exposure to multiple chemicals may cause interactions in the pharmacokinetics (PK) and/or pharmacodynamics (PD) of the individual chemicals. Such interactions can cause modification of the internal or target dose/response of one chemical in the mixture by other chemical(s), resulting in a change in the toxicity from that predicted from the summation of the effects of the single chemicals using dose additivity. In such cases, conducting quantitative cumulative risk assessment for chemicals present as a mixture is difficult. The uncertainties that arise from PK interactions can be addressed by developing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models to describe the disposition of chemical mixtures. Further, PK models can be developed to describe mechanisms of action and tissue responses. In this article, PBPK/PD modeling efforts conducted to investigate chemical interactions at the PK and PD levels are reviewed to demonstrate the use of this predictive modeling framework in assessing health risks associated with exposures to complex chemical mixtures. PMID:21655141

  16. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  17. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  18. The Risk Assessment at the Workplace of Assembly Operation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Burda

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk Assessment Process by FMEA method involve hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control processes and their input is fundamental to a successful EH&S system. This Risk assessment tool follows the general process and requirements of the Health and Safety Risk Assessment Procedure.

  19. Effortful control as modifier of the association between negative emotionality and adolescents' mental health problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oldehinkel, Albertine J.; Hartman, Catharina A.; Ferdinand, Robert F.; Verhulst, Frank C.; Ormel, Johan

    2007-01-01

    This study examined the extent to which effortful control moderated the risk of internalizing or externalizing problems associated with high negative emotionality in a Dutch population sample of pre- and early adolescents (N = 1,922). Internalizing and externalizing problems were assessed with the

  20. Drought Risk Assessment based on Natural and Social Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jing; Wang, Huimin; Han, Dawei

    2015-04-01

    In many parts of the world, drought hazard is becoming more frequent and severe due to climate change and human activities. It is crucial to monitor and assess drought conditions, especially for decision making support in agriculture sector. The vegetation index (VI) decreases, and the land surface temperature (LST) increases when the vegetation is under drought stress. Therefore both of these remotely sensed indices are widely used in drought monitoring and assessment. Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) is obtained by establishing the feature space of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST, which reflects agriculture dry situation by inverting soil moisture. However, these indices only concern the natural hazard-causing factors. Our society is a complex large-scale system with various natural and social elements. The drought risk is the joint consequence of hazard-causing factors and hazard-affected bodies. For example, as the population increases, the exposure of the hazard-affected bodies also tends to increase. The high GDP enhances the response ability of government, and the irrigation and water conservancy reduces the vulnerability. Such characteristics of hazard-affected bodies should be coupled with natural factors. In this study, the 16-day moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI and LST data are combined to establish NDVI-Ts space according to different land use types in Yunnan Province, China. And then, TVDIs are calculated through dry and wet edges modeled as a linear fit to data for each land cover type. Next, the efforts are turned to establish an integrated drought assessment index of social factors and TVDI through ascertaining attribute weight based on rough sets theory. Thus, the new CDI (comprehensive drought index) recorded during spring of 2010 and the spatial variations in drought are analyzed and compared with TVDI dataset. Moreover, actual drought risk situation in the study area is given to

  1. Research into specific risk assessment in project financing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bestvina Bukvić

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An assessment of investment justification in terms of risk enables the decision maker (investor to select, among available alternatives, the one with the most favourable correlation between the expected profit and assumed risk. At the micro level, the uncertainty of business success is extremely high in production activities, which is an additional incentive for taking a comprehensive approach to the issue of investment decision-making and the development of risk assessment techniques applicable in this particular segment of industry. Given the complexity of the manufacturing process, the length of the production cycle, market conditions, and entity-specific risks (which are difficult to measure, projects in manufacturing industry require a detailed and comprehensive assessment of specific risk factors and their cost-effectiveness. Ne - vertheless, since specific risks can be diversified, investment proposal assessments in practice usually do not cover their quantification and analysis. However, the majority of business entities do not have enough active projects in various industries to be able to fully diversify their business and thus minimize the level of specific risks. The impact of specific factors becomes one of the most important elements for business success. This paper analyses how far risk assessment methods regarding specific risks are used in practice. Furthermore, it analyses the significance of specific risks for total investment risk. This study gives new insi - ghts into the significance of specific risks to the overall investment assessment and the need for permanent development of traditionally used investment assessment models.

  2. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  3. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  4. Risk assessment and risk transfer from an insurerś point of view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, G.

    2009-04-01

    Risk, a word that causes a lot of associations in human brains. Many of us don't like risks. Since hundreds of years insurance is the most common way to get rid of the financial consequences when risks convert to damages. This article deals with commercial risks and the possibilities of risk transfer, an important task within the field of risk management. For commercial entities it is very important to transfer risks, threatening the competitiveness or even worse the existence of a company. At the beginning of insurance it was more the less a bet between merchants and rich people. Later on mutual societies were taking place. Today we see a complex insurance industry with insurers, reinsurers, self insuring possibilities via captives and much more. This complex system, with all the different ways to deal with risk transfer requires a professional risk assessment! Risk assessment is based on knowledge about the threatened assets, the likelihood that they will be damaged, the threats and the possibilities to protect these assets. Assets may be tangible or intangible. Assessing risks is not a precise calculation that delivers a result without any doubt. But insurers and insured need a basis to fix a premium, both of them can agree. This contribution will present a system to assess risks and to find the right risk-transfer-premiums.

  5. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  6. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  7. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  8. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  9. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  10. Sound construction of risk indicators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Peter Borgen; Kjær, Christian; Thomsen, Marianne

      In spite of the great effort in the area of environmental risk assessment of chemicals, a critical amount of uncertainty is still a reality due to high complexity of the governing risk problem. Unexpected adverse effects may thus take place event though the risk assessment predicts no-risk. Some...... chemicals are even lacking risk assessment due to a priori judgment based on risk screening methods that bypass further risk assessment activity. It is thus advisable to set up a safety net under the risk assessment of chemicals and this poster suggests a supporting paradigm using risk indicators...... that governs the method: HotSpot Driven Aggregation of Risk Indicators (HoSDARI) as described in Sørensen et al. (2008). The purpose of the risk assessment is to protect a defined target that has some value for protection. The target has a number of realizations each defined as a Protection Unit (PU...

  11. Advanced korean industrial safety and health policy with risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Hyuckmyun; Cho, Jae Hyun; Moon, Il; Choi, Jaewook; Park, Dooyong; Lee, Youngsoon

    2010-09-01

    This article describes a systematic roadmap master plan for advanced industrial safety and health policy in Korea, with an emphasis on. Since Korean industries had first emergence of industrial safety and health policy in 1953, enormous efforts have been made on upgrading the relevant laws in order to reflect real situation of industrial work environment in accordance with rapid changes of Korean and global business over three decades. Nevertheless, current policy has major defects; too much techniques-based articles, diverged contents in less organization, combined enforcement and punishments and finally enforcing regulations full of commands and control. These deficiencies have make it difficult to accommodate changes of social, industrial and employment environment in customized fashion. The approach to the solution must be generic at the level of paradigm-shift rather than local modifications and enhancement. The basic idea is to establish a new system integrated with a risk assessment scheme, which encourages employers to apply to their work environment under comprehensive responsibility. The risk assessment scheme is designed to enable to inspect employers' compliances afterwards. A project comprises four yearly phases based on applying zones; initially designating and operating a specified risk zone, gradually expanding the special zones during a period of 3 years (2010-2012) and the final zone expanded to entire nation. In each phase, the intermediate version of the system is updated through a process of precise and unbiased validation in terms of its operability, feasibility and sustainability with building relevant infrastructures as needed.

  12. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  13. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  14. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  15. Analysis of existing risk assessments, and list of suggestions

    CERN Document Server

    Heimsch, Laura

    2016-01-01

    The scope of this project was to analyse risk assessments made at CERN and extracting some crucial information about the different methodologies used, profiles of people who make the risk assessments, and gathering information of whether the risk matrix was used and if the acceptable level of risk was defined. Second step of the project was to trigger discussion inside HSE about risk assessment by suggesting a risk matrix and a risk assessment template.

  16. Risk monitor-a tool for computer aided risk assessment for NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinod, Gopika; Saraf, R.K.; Babar, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Hadap, Nikhil

    2001-01-01

    Considerable changes occur in components status and system design and subsequent operation due to changes in plant configuration and their operating procedures. These changes are organised because some components are randomly down and other can be planned for test, maintenance and repair. This results in a fluctuation of risk level over operating time, which is termed as risk profile. Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is an analytical technique for assessing the risk by integrating diverse aspects of design and operation of a Nuclear Power Plant. Risk can be defined as the product of the probability of an accident and the consequences from that accident. Reactor Safety Division of BARC has developed PC based tool, which can assess the risk profile. This package can be used to optimise the operation in Nuclear Power Plants with respect to a minimum risk level over the operating time, and is termed as Risk Monitor. Risk Monitor is user friendly and can re-evaluate core damage frequency for changes in component status, test interval, initiating event frequency etc. Plant restoration advice, when the plant is in high risk configuration, current status of all plant equipment, and equipment prioritization are also provided by the package. (author)

  17. Site remediation guided by risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McBean, E.A.; Gowing, A.; Pieczonka, G.

    2002-01-01

    'Full text:' Risk assessment (RA) provides an effective tool for identifying hazards with respect to human health and ecological receptors, hazards that arise from contaminants in the environment. Risk assessment relies upon: hazard identification/problem formulation; toxicity assessment; exposure assessment; and risk characterization. Hence, risk assessment provides an effective guide for site remediation through the identification of the associated risks arising from pre- and potential post-remediation activities. As a demonstration of this decision-making process, a site-specific risk assessment (SSRA) was performed on a chemical producing facility. Historical waste practices during the production of DDT compounds resulted in impacted site soils and sediment and soils of the creek passing through the facility. The purpose of the SSRA was to derive site-specific cleanup values for the impacted on-site soils, creek sediments, and embankment soils, incorporating human and ecological receptors associated with the environmental media. The human exposure pathways considered were dermal contact, incidental ingestion, and inhalation of the various soils. The potential human receptors were industrial workers, construction workers, trespassers, and off-site residents. Ingestion of fish from the creek by residents was also evaluated in the human health risk assessment (HHRA). Food web analyses were used to evaluate the impact of exposure to chemical compounds in aquatic sediments and related soils by ecological receptors such as the great blue heron, raccoon, and mink. The SSRA involved modelling the daily chemical intake by receptors and the transfer of chemicals to identified secondary media (e.g., ambient air or animal tissues) that are also potential exposure media. These models, while using the site-specific chemical data in the source media, possess uncertainties associated with default parameters that are only approximations and not site-specific (e.g., soil

  18. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  19. Enhancing Key Competencies of Health Professionals in the Assessment and Care of Adults at Risk of Suicide Through Education and Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Kathryn; Tindall, Claudia; Strudwick, Gillian

    This article describes efforts undertaken to improve the clinical competencies of health professionals in the area of suicide risk assessment, documentation, and care planning. Best practices that fit the mental health and addictions setting were identified from the Registered Nurses' Association of Ontario Best Practice Guideline on Assessment and Care of Adults at Risk for Suicidal Ideation and Behaviour. A variety of methods were used to implement the guidelines at the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. These included 3 in-person educational modules, an e-learning module, and the creation of an electronic health record suicide risk assessment documentation form. Results showed that interprofessional team members improved their suicide awareness and increased their confidence and knowledge in suicide risk assessment and the identification of interventions for clients at risk. Organizational level performance and quality improvement activities after implementation of the education and the electronic suicide risk assessment documentation form are being implemented through a collaboration between performance improvement, clinical education and informatics, and professional practice. The success of an interprofessional educational program of this nature is dependent on the collaboration of a number of stakeholders from a variety of areas of the organization.

  20. Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bailey, A.; Hutter, I.

    2006-01-01

    Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from

  1. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  2. Completion of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galappathie, Nuwan; Heeramun, Ragini; Jethwa, Krishma

    2009-04-01

    There is a clear need for high standards of risk assessment and monitoring within forensic psychiatry. This has been highlighted by a number of high profile homicide enquires which have called for better standards of multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring. There are no national standards for risk assessment. We conducted a study to audit electronically the completion rate of a service-designed risk assessment document within Fromside, a medium secure unit in the UK. The completion rates for key sections of 64 risk assessment documents were assessed. Only 48 of the 64 (75%) documents were electronically available. The completion rates ranged from 59/64 (92%) for the retrospective risk review to 46/64 (72%) for relapse indicators. Only 35/64 (55%) risk documents were updated within the last three months. We found that the use of risk profile documents has helped achieve good standards of risk assessment, however greater priority needs to be given to ongoing monitoring. We recommend that consideration is given to the development of national guidelines for multidisciplinary risk assessment and monitoring.

  3. Quantifying risk and accuracy in cancer risk assessment: the process and its role in risk management problem-solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turturro, A; Hart, R W

    1987-01-01

    A better understanding of chemical-induced cancer has led to appreciation of similarities to problems addressed by risk management of radiation-induced toxicity. Techniques developed for cancer risk assessment of toxic substances can be generalized to toxic agents. A recent problem-solving approach for risk management of toxic substances developed for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and the role of risk assessment and how uncertainty should be treated within the context of this approach, is discussed. Finally, two different methods, research into the assumptions underlying risk assessment and the modification of risk assessment/risk management documents, are used to illustrate how the technique can be applied.

  4. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  5. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  6. Assessment and uncertainty analysis of groundwater risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Fawen; Zhu, Jingzhao; Deng, Xiyuan; Zhao, Yong; Li, Shaofei

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater with relatively stable quantity and quality is commonly used by human being. However, as the over-mining of groundwater, problems such as groundwater funnel, land subsidence and salt water intrusion have emerged. In order to avoid further deterioration of hydrogeological problems in over-mining regions, it is necessary to conduct the assessment of groundwater risk. In this paper, risks of shallow and deep groundwater in the water intake area of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in Tianjin, China, were evaluated. Firstly, two sets of four-level evaluation index system were constructed based on the different characteristics of shallow and deep groundwater. Secondly, based on the normalized factor values and the synthetic weights, the risk values of shallow and deep groundwater were calculated. Lastly, the uncertainty of groundwater risk assessment was analyzed by indicator kriging method. The results meet the decision maker's demand for risk information, and overcome previous risk assessment results expressed in the form of deterministic point estimations, which ignore the uncertainty of risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Military Readiness: DODs Readiness Rebuilding Efforts May Be at Risk without a Comprehensive Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    specific elements that are to be in strategic plans. 8Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Guide 3401D, CJCS Guide to the Chairman’s Readiness ...all its major functions and operations. DOD strategic guidance makes it clear that rebuilding readiness is a priority that supports the... readiness recovery efforts. Evaluations of the plan to monitor goals and objectives Assessments, through objective measurement and systematic

  8. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  9. Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

  10. Modeling inputs to computer models used in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iman, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    Computer models for various risk assessment applications are closely scrutinized both from the standpoint of questioning the correctness of the underlying mathematical model with respect to the process it is attempting to model and from the standpoint of verifying that the computer model correctly implements the underlying mathematical model. A process that receives less scrutiny, but is nonetheless of equal importance, concerns the individual and joint modeling of the inputs. This modeling effort clearly has a great impact on the credibility of results. Model characteristics are reviewed in this paper that have a direct bearing on the model input process and reasons are given for using probabilities-based modeling with the inputs. The authors also present ways to model distributions for individual inputs and multivariate input structures when dependence and other constraints may be present

  11. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  12. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  13. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  14. Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

  15. Assessing the risk of work-related international travel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druckman, Myles; Harber, Philip; Liu, Yihang; Quigley, Robert L

    2014-11-01

    To identify factors affecting the likelihood of requiring medical services during international business trips. Data from more than 800,000 international trips and medical assistance cases provided to 48 multinational corporations in 2009. Travel destination countries were grouped into four a priori risk-related categories. Travel to "low" medical risk countries in aggregate accounted for more hospitalizations and medical evacuations than travel to "high" medical risk countries. Nevertheless, the risk per trip was much higher for travel to higher medical risk countries. Corporations with employees on international travel should allocate sufficient resources to manage and ideally prevent medical issues during business travel. Travel medicine must focus on more than infectious diseases, and programs are necessary for both high- and low-risk regions. Improved understanding of travel-related needs determines resource allocation and risk mitigation efforts.

  16. CASCADE - Chemicals as contaminants in the food chain. A network of excellence for research, risk assessment, and education

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oeberg, M.; Haakansson, H. [Karolinska Institutet, Insitute of Environmental Medicine, Stockholm (Sweden); Pongratz, I.; Gustavsson, J.Aa. [Karolinska Institutet, Dept. of Biosciences, Huddinge (Sweden)

    2004-09-15

    Harmful effects of chemical contaminants in food are of major health concern in Europe today. Lack of integration between basic research, risk assessment, and education severely hampers the efforts to reach European excellence in this area. The research activities that are carried out are small in scale and are not well integrated into a coherent structure. To tackle the fragmentation problems and to achieve synergistic effects and full European research potential, the European Commission has initiated a Network of Excellence called CASCADE or ''Chemicals as contaminants in the food chain: a network of excellence for research, risk assessment, and education'' The contract is running for five years and is worth over 14 million with partners from eighteen research centres. The network has the potential and goal to be a world force in knowledge on health issues related to chemical contaminants in food. Focus is on chemical residues that act via and/or interfere with cell regulation at the level of nuclear receptors. The risk assessment integration parts of the network aim to increase the awareness among scientists and others of the need to bring multiple aspects of scientific information into use in risk assessment.

  17. Risk assessment and toxicology databases for health effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, P.Y.; Wassom, J.S. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States)

    1990-12-31

    Scientific and technological developments bring unprecedented stress to our environment. Society has to predict the results of potential health risks from technologically based actions that may have serious, far-reaching consequences. The potential for error in making such predictions or assessment is great and multiplies with the increasing size and complexity of the problem being studied. Because of this, the availability and use of reliable data is the key to any successful forecasting effort. Scientific research and development generate new data and information. Much of the scientific data being produced daily is stored in computers for subsequent analysis. This situation provides both an invaluable resource and an enormous challenge. With large amounts of government funds being devoted to health and environmental research programs and with maintenance of our living environment at stake, we must make maximum use of the resulting data to forecast and avert catastrophic effects. Along with the readily available. The most efficient means of obtaining the data necessary for assessing the health effects of chemicals is to utilize applications include the toxicology databases and information files developed at ORNL. To make most efficient use of the data/information that has already been prepared, attention and resources should be directed toward projects that meticulously evaluate the available data/information and create specialized peer-reviewed value-added databases. Such projects include the National Library of Medicine`s Hazardous Substances Data Bank, and the U.S. Air Force Installation Restoration Toxicology Guide. These and similar value-added toxicology databases were developed at ORNL and are being maintained and updated. These databases and supporting information files, as well as some data evaluation techniques are discussed in this paper with special focus on how they are used to assess potential health effects of environmental agents. 19 refs., 5 tabs.

  18. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suter, Glenn W.; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-01-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species

  19. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  20. Ethics of Risk. Kristin Shrader-Frechette's Philosophical Critique of Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heikkeroe, Topi

    2006-01-01

    This paper addresses risk assessment from a philosophical point of view. It presents and critically reviews the work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette. It introduces the ethical, epistemological, and methodological issues related to risk assessment. The paper focuses on the ethical questions of justice in risk decisions. It opens by framing the relationship between ethics and technology in the modern world. Then the paper turns to a brief description of risk assessment as a central method in technological decision making. It proceeds to show how Shrader-Frechette analyzes ethical and political aspects of risk assessment. The central argumentation In her critique follows RawIsian lines: distributive and participatory inequalities in creating technological constructions need to be justified. To clarify this requirement she formulates the Principle of Prima Facie Political Equity (PPFPE), which is her central tool in most of her ethical criticism, for instance, in relation to the future generations: prima facie. all generations should be treated equally. Brief critical remarks conclude the paper. They touch upon placing Shrader-Frechette's project on the academic chart and her liberal individualist anthropology

  1. Effort reward imbalance, and salivary cortisol in the morning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eller, Nanna Hurwitz; Nielsen, Søren Feodor; Blønd, Morten

    2012-01-01

    Effort reward imbalance (ERI) is suggested to increase risk for stress and is hypothesized to increase cortisol levels, especially the awakening cortisol response, ACR.......Effort reward imbalance (ERI) is suggested to increase risk for stress and is hypothesized to increase cortisol levels, especially the awakening cortisol response, ACR....

  2. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  3. A novel tool for the communication of ecological risk assessment information in an urbanized watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zandbergen, P.

    1995-01-01

    A tool was developed for the communication of ecological risk assessment information on various types of point and nonpoint source pollution in the Brunette River watershed, an urbanized watershed in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. The communication of ecological risks is a complex task, since the outcomes of quantitative ecological risk assessments are often not well understood by interested parties, and the results of the scientific analysis are generally quite different from the public perception of risk. Scientists should try to assist in the effective communication of their analysis by presenting it in a form more accessible to a variety of stakeholders, exposing the assessment process itself and the uncertainties in the analysis. This was attempted in developing a tool for the effective communication of ecological risk assessment information and management alternatives to the community in the watershed. Longstanding concerns over various forms of point and non-point sources of pollution in the watershed have resulted in a major effort to document the releases of pollutants, the exposure pathways, and the consequences for aquatic life. Extensive monitoring of ecosystem parameters, data-integration by means of a Geographic Information System, and the use of numerous databases and sub-models have resulted in the ecological risk assessment of four types of pollution in the watershed: petroleum fuels, metals, pesticides and basic industrial chemicals. Results will be presented of the attempts to integrate this information into a communication tool, which will demonstrate the principles, values and assumptions underlying the scientific analysis, as well as the quantitative end results and inherent uncertainties. The tool has been developed in close cooperation with several scientists who did most of the original data collection and with the feedback from some of the stakeholders in the community

  4. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  5. Combined Hydrologic (AGWA-KINEROS2) and Hydraulic (HEC2) Modeling for Post-Fire Runoff and Inundation Risk Assessment through a Set of Python Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, J. E.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, D. P.; Burns, I. S.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfires in the Western United States can alter landscapes by removing vegetation and changing soil properties. These altered landscapes produce more runoff than pre-fire landscapes which can lead to post-fire flooding that can damage infrastructure and impair natural resources. Resources, structures, historical artifacts and others that could be impacted by increased runoff are considered values at risk. .The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) allows users to quickly set up and execute the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion model (KINEROS2 or K2) in the ESRI ArcMap environment. The AGWA-K2 workflow leverages the visualization capabilities of GIS to facilitate evaluation of rapid watershed assessments for post-fire planning efforts. High relative change in peak discharge, as simulated by K2, provides a visual and numeric indicator to investigate those channels in the watershed that should be evaluated for more detailed analysis, especially if values at risk are within or near that channel. Modeling inundation extent along a channel would provide more specific guidance about risk along a channel. HEC-2 and HEC-RAS can be used for hydraulic modeling efforts at the reach and river system scale. These models have been used to address flood boundaries and, accordingly, flood risk. However, data collection and organization for hydraulic models can be time consuming and therefore a combined hydrologic-hydraulic modeling approach is not often employed for rapid assessments. A simplified approach could streamline this process and provide managers with a simple workflow and tool to perform a quick risk assessment for a single reach. By focusing on a single reach highlighted by large relative change in peak discharge, data collection efforts can be minimized and the hydraulic computations can be performed to supplement risk analysis. The incorporation of hydraulic analysis through a suite of Python tools (as outlined by HEC-2) with AGWA-K2 will allow more rapid

  6. Assessment of health risks of policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana

    2014-01-01

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals

  7. Assessment of health risks of policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ádám, Balázs, E-mail: badam@cmss.sdu.dk [Unit for Health Promotion Research, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Southern Denmark, Niels Bohrs Vej 9, DK-6700 Esbjerg (Denmark); Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Molnár, Ágnes, E-mail: MolnarAg@smh.ca [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Centre for Research on Inner City Health, Keenan Research Centre, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael' s Hospital, Victoria 209, Rm. 3-26.22, M5B 1C6 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Ádány, Róza, E-mail: adany.roza@sph.unideb.hu [Department of Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Public Health, University of Debrecen, P.O. Box 9, H-4012 Debrecen (Hungary); Bianchi, Fabrizio, E-mail: Fabriepi@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Bitenc, Katarina, E-mail: katarina.bitenc@ivz-rs.si [National Institute of Public Health, Trubarjeva 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia); Chereches, Razvan, E-mail: razvan.m.chereches@gmail.com [Faculty of Political, Administrative and Communication Sciences, Babes-Bolyai University, Strada Mihail Kogalniceanu 1, 3400 Cluj (Romania); Cori, Liliana, E-mail: liliana.cori@ifc.cnr.it [Unit of Environmental Epidemiology, Institute of Clinical Physiology, National Council of Research, Moruzzi 1, 56124 Pisa (Italy); Fehr, Rainer, E-mail: rainer.fehr@uni-bielefeld.de [NRW Centre for Health, Westerfeldstr. 35-37, 33611 Bielefeld (Germany); Kobza, Joanna, E-mail: koga1@poczta.onet.pl [Public Health Department, Silesian Medical University, 18 Medykow Street, 40-752 Katowice (Poland); Kollarova, Jana, E-mail: janakollarova@yahoo.com [Department of Health Promotion, Regional Public Health Authority, Ipelska 1, 04011 Kosice (Slovakia); and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  8. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  9. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  10. Microplastics in the environment: What can we learn from a decade of engineered nanoparticle fate and risk assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hüffer, T.; Praetorius, A.; Wagner, S.; von der Kammer, F.; Hofmann, T.

    2016-12-01

    The field of environmental fate and risk assessment is frequently dominated by "hot topics" of emerging contaminants; in recent years for example pharmaceuticals, nanomaterials or, most recently, microplastics. Since no emerging pollutant is entirely new, a careful assessment of existing knowledge on related substances can help us direct our research efforts and employ the limited resources in a more efficient way. Crucial questions on the environmental implications of microplastics, for example the need for analytical tools, adequate protocols to study their fate, or the effects of aging and a risk assessment based thereon remain largely unanswered. Over the last decade, the field of environmental implications of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) has been facing similar challenges. The goal of this contribution is to suggest a road-map to pursue the risk assessment of microplastics based on our experience in one decade in ENPs research. We highlight how to avoid potential dead-ends in microplastics research. We also illustrate that cross-linking other research fields, especially polymer chemistry and material sciences, may facilitate filling the urgent knowledge gaps.

  11. Methodology for risk assessment and reliability applied for pipeline engineering design and industrial valves operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silveira, Dierci [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF), Volta Redonda, RJ (Brazil). Escola de Engenharia Industrial e Metalurgia. Lab. de Sistemas de Producao e Petroleo e Gas], e-mail: dsilveira@metal.eeimvr.uff.br; Batista, Fabiano [CICERO, Rio das Ostras, RJ (Brazil)

    2009-07-01

    Two kinds of situations may be distinguished for estimating the operating reliability when maneuvering industrial valves and the probability of undesired events in pipelines and industrial plants: situations in which the risk is identified in repetitive cycles of operations and situations in which there is a permanent hazard due to project configurations introduced by decisions during the engineering design definition stage. The estimation of reliability based on the influence of design options requires the choice of a numerical index, which may include a composite of human operating parameters based on biomechanics and ergonomics data. We first consider the design conditions under which the plant or pipeline operator reliability concepts can be applied when operating industrial valves, and then describe in details the ergonomics and biomechanics risks that would lend itself to engineering design database development and human reliability modeling and assessment. This engineering design database development and reliability modeling is based on a group of engineering design and biomechanics parameters likely to lead to over-exertion forces and working postures, which are themselves associated with the functioning of a particular plant or pipeline. This approach to construct based on ergonomics and biomechanics for a more common industrial valve positioning in the plant layout is proposed through the development of a methodology to assess physical efforts and operator reach, combining various elementary operations situations. These procedures can be combined with the genetic algorithm modeling and four elements of the man-machine systems: the individual, the task, the machinery and the environment. The proposed methodology should be viewed not as competing to traditional reliability and risk assessment bur rather as complementary, since it provides parameters related to physical efforts values for valves operation and workspace design and usability. (author)

  12. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  13. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  14. SPECIFIC METHOD OF RISK ASSESSMENT IN TOURISM ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea ARMEAN

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present an innovative method of risk assessment for tourism businesses. The contribution to literature is the novelty of this method of following paths: is an ante-factum assessment not post-factum; risk assessment is based on perception rather than results; is based on specific risks tourism enterprises not on the overall risks. Is an asset-research methodology and consists in generating its own method of risk assessment based on the ideas summarized from the literature studied. The aim established is tourism enterprises from Romania. The data necessary for the application of this method will result from applying to top level management of tourism enterprises, a questionnaire about risk perception. The results from this study will help identify and measure the risks specific to tourism enterprises. The applicability of the results is to improve risk management in these enterprises.

  15. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  16. Hydraulic risk assessment of bridges using UAV photogrammetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackl, Jürgen; Adey, Bryan T.; Woźniak, Michał; Schümperlin, Oliver

    2017-04-01

    Road networks are essential for economic growth and development. Of the objects within a road network, bridges are of special interest, because their failure often results in relatively large interruptions to how the network is used, their replacement costs are generally large, and it usually takes a considerable amount of time to restore them once they have failed. Of the different types of bridges, bridges in mountainous regions are of special interest because their failure could cause severe societal consequences, for example, if it renders an area inaccessible. One of the main causes of the failure of bridges in mountainous regions is the occurrence of a hydraulic event, for example, flood waters above a certain level, scour below a certain depth or debris build up beyond a certain level. An assessment of risk related to a bridge in a mountainous region is challenging. The probability of occurrence of these events, and the resulting consequences, depend greatly on the characteristics (e.g. slope, soil, vegetation, precipitation, …) of the specific regions where the bridges are located. An indication of the effect of these characteristics can be seen in the sediment deposition during floods in mountain catchments. Additionally, there is often no, or no recent, topological information that can be used to develop terrain models to be used for realistic water flow simulations in mountain regions, and most hydrology and hydraulic models have been developed for lower gradient rivers and can often not be directly used to model water flow in mountain rivers. In an effort to improve the assessment of risk related to bridges in mountainous regions, using the setting for risk assessments established by Hackl et al. (2015) and Adey et al. (2016), an investigation was undertaken to determine whether unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and photogrammetry could be used to generate the topological information required to run realistic water flow simulations. The process

  17. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  18. Continued efforts to improve the robustness of the French Gen II PWRs with respect to the risk of severe accidents. Safety assessment and research activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raimond, E.; Bonnet, J.M.; Generino, G.; Dubreuil, M.; Pichereau, F.; Van Dorsselaere, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    In the context of post Fukushima accident, the paper presents the continuous efforts performed in France to upgrade progressively the French Gen II pressurised water reactors safety features in order to face the risks of any severe accident. It reminds some decisions taken after the TMI2 and the Chernobyl accidents and describes the situation in France before the Fukushima accident: -) progress done on severe accident consequences analysis thanks to recent research activities, -) improvement of Gen II PWRs safety features, in relation with the periodic safety review process, -) definition of higher safety levels requirement directly linked to the protection of population in the framework of Gen II PWRs long term operation. The last part of the paper comments carefully how the Fukushima accident will interfere on all these previous efforts to increase the Gen II PWRs robustness. The Fukushima accident clearly highlights a need of additional efforts to identify possible cliff edge effect in case of beyond design events (especially external events). The definition of additional accident management procedures and means to secure a reactor (or a site) whatever the conditions will be a major consequence for the French NPPs. In a second step, some complements on the existing defense-in-depth approach are now expected: additional requirements to define line of defense against adverse consequences of beyond design situations. The need for specific additional research activities after the Fukushima accident seems to be limited to some specific issues (for example spent fuel pool behaviour in case of long term loss of cooling). This paper is followed by the slides of the presentation

  19. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  20. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  1. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  2. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  4. Analysis of current research addressing complementary use of life-cycle assessment and risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials: have lessons been learned from previous experience with chemicals?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grieger, Khara D.; Laurent, Alexis; Miseljic, Mirko; Christensen, Frans; Baun, Anders; Olsen, Stig I.

    2012-01-01

    While it is generally agreed that successful strategies to address the health and environmental impacts of engineered nanomaterials (NM) should consider the well-established frameworks for conducting life-cycle assessment (LCA) and risk assessment (RA), scientific research, and specific guidance on how to practically apply these methods are still very much under development. This paper evaluates how research efforts have applied LCA and RA together for NM, particularly reflecting on previous experiences with applying these methods to chemicals. Through a literature review and a separate analysis of research focused on applying LCA and RA together for NM, it appears that current research efforts have taken into account some key “lessons learned” from previous experience with chemicals while many key challenges remain for practically applying these methods to NM. We identified two main approaches for using these methods together for NM: “LC-based RA” (traditional RA applied in a life-cycle perspective) and “RA-complemented LCA” (conventional LCA supplemented by RA in specific life-cycle steps). Hence, the latter is the only identified approach which genuinely combines LC- and RA-based methods for NM-risk research efforts to date as the former is rather a continuation of normal RA according to standard assessment procedures (e.g., REACH). Both these approaches along with recommendations for using LCA and RA together for NM are similar to those made previously for chemicals, and thus, there does not appear to be much progress made specific for NM. We have identified one issue in particular that may be specific for NM when applying LCA and RA at this time: the need to establish proper dose metrics within both methods.

  5. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  6. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  7. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  8. Large-scale model-based assessment of deer-vehicle collision risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torsten Hothorn

    Full Text Available Ungulates, in particular the Central European roe deer Capreolus capreolus and the North American white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus, are economically and ecologically important. The two species are risk factors for deer-vehicle collisions and as browsers of palatable trees have implications for forest regeneration. However, no large-scale management systems for ungulates have been implemented, mainly because of the high efforts and costs associated with attempts to estimate population sizes of free-living ungulates living in a complex landscape. Attempts to directly estimate population sizes of deer are problematic owing to poor data quality and lack of spatial representation on larger scales. We used data on >74,000 deer-vehicle collisions observed in 2006 and 2009 in Bavaria, Germany, to model the local risk of deer-vehicle collisions and to investigate the relationship between deer-vehicle collisions and both environmental conditions and browsing intensities. An innovative modelling approach for the number of deer-vehicle collisions, which allows nonlinear environment-deer relationships and assessment of spatial heterogeneity, was the basis for estimating the local risk of collisions for specific road types on the scale of Bavarian municipalities. Based on this risk model, we propose a new "deer-vehicle collision index" for deer management. We show that the risk of deer-vehicle collisions is positively correlated to browsing intensity and to harvest numbers. Overall, our results demonstrate that the number of deer-vehicle collisions can be predicted with high precision on the scale of municipalities. In the densely populated and intensively used landscapes of Central Europe and North America, a model-based risk assessment for deer-vehicle collisions provides a cost-efficient instrument for deer management on the landscape scale. The measures derived from our model provide valuable information for planning road protection and defining

  9. Regionally Applied Research Efforts (RARE) Report titled " ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The traditional methodology for health risk assessment used by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is based on the use of exposure assumptions (e.g. exposure duration, food ingestion rate, body weight, etc.) that represent the entire American population, either as a central tendency exposure (e.g. average, median) or as a reasonable maximum exposure (e.g. 95% upper confidence limit). Unfortunately, EPA lacked exposure information for assessing health risks for New England regional tribes sustaining a tribal subsistence way of life. As a riverine tribe, the Penobscot culture and traditions are inextricably tied to the Penobscot River watershed. It is through hunting, fishing, trapping, gathering and making baskets, pottery, moccasins, birch-bark canoes and other traditional practices that the Penobscot culture and people are sustained. The Penobscot River receives a variety of pollutant discharges leaving the Penobscot Indian Nation (PIN) questioning the ecological health and water quality of the river and how this may affect the practices that sustain their way of life. The objectives of this Regional Applied Research Effort (RARE) study were to: (1) Develop culturally sensitive methodologies for assessing the potential level of exposure to contaminants that Penobscot Indian Nation tribal members may have from maintaining tribal sustenance practices; (2) Conduct field surveys and laboratory analysis on targeted flora and fauna for chemical expo

  10. 76 FR 44891 - Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-27

    ...] Monsanto Co.; Availability of Petition, Plant Pest Risk Assessment, and Environmental Assessment for... Monsanto petition, our plant pest risk assessment, and our draft environmental assessment for the proposed...-2817 before coming. The petition, draft environmental assessment, and plant pest risk assessment are...

  11. Impact of modelling scale on probabilistic flood risk assessment: the Malawi case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudari Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the early months of 2015, destructive floods hit Malawi, causing deaths and economic losses. Flood risk assessment outcomes can be used to increase scientific-supported awareness of risk. The recent increase in availability of high resolution data such as TanDEM-X at 12m resolution makes possible the use of detailed physical based flood hazard models in risk assessment. Nonetheless the scale of hazard modelling still remains an issue, which requires a compromise between level of detail and computational efforts. This work presents two different approaches on hazard modelling. Both methods rely on 32-years of numeric weather re-analysis and rainfall-runoff transformation through a fully distributed WFLOW-type hydrological model. The first method, applied at national scale, uses fast post-processing routines, which estimate flood water depth at a resolution of about 1×1km. The second method applies a full 2D hydraulic model to propagate water discharge into the flood plains and best suites for small areas where assets are concentrated. At the 12m resolution, three hot spots with a model area of approximately 10×10 km are analysed. Flood hazard maps obtained with both approaches are combined with flood impact models at the same resolution to generate indicators for flood risk. A quantitative comparison of the two approaches is presented in order to show the effects of modelling scale on both hazard and impact losses.

  12. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  13. Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

  14. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith

    2001-01-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in practice, decision

  15. Participatory Risk Assessment for Environmental Decision-Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Homan, Jacqueline; Petts, Judith [Univ. of Birmingham (United Kingdom). Centre for Environmental Research and Training; Pollard, Simon; Twigger-Ross, Clare [National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal, London (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Recent research, discussion and practice in the role environmental decision-making as an integral part of a democratic society have resulted in legislation, policy and guidance that encourage, and indeed may require, greater participation. The focus of this research paper is to explore these participatory ideas in the context of environmental risk assessment. Participation methods have generic application. However, the importance of fitting method to purpose requires that different contexts and issues relative to the objectives be addressed. In relation to environmental risk assessment these issues include: the complexity of risk issues per se; the inherent uncertainty that dominates any risk assessment; the quantitative nature of many risk assessments and the difficulty of dealing with low probability-high consequence outconies; the possibility of controversy in relation to decisions involving risk and thus the careful attention needed to the process and identification of participants; the traditional role and culture of experts in risk decisions and the challenge of reconciling this with the role of lay knowledge and the potential for the public to act as quality assurers in the risk decision process; the tendency for people to need reassurance when confronted with risk, even during a participation process; the need to acknowledge the public's ability to deal with complex technical issues and the need for information and data to respond to their questions, and the fact that 'risk' per se will often not be the only issue of public concern. The contributions to the risk debate from the social sciences are having considerable influence on the practice of environmental decision-making. Calls for increased stakeholder involvement in risk decisions are requiring greater access to and engagement with environmental risk assessments. Mechanisms for this level of involvement, however, are not well defined. For these aspirational calls to be realised in

  16. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  17. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  18. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  19. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murphy, Patrick [Commission of the European Communities, Directorate General XI, Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection (Belgium)

    1992-07-01

    In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

  20. General approaches to the risk assessment of chemicals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murphy, Patrick

    1992-01-01

    In the context of the UNCED 92 'Earth Summit' in Rio, the following definition of chemical risk assessment has been developed: 'Chemical risk assessment is a scientific process that identifies and quantifies the potential adverse effects on human health or ecosystems of defined exposures to chemical substances, to mixtures that include chemicals, or to chemically hazardous processes or situations. Risk itself is the probability of the occurrence of a defined adverse effect in a defined group and in defined circumstances'. I would not be so impertinent as to try and improve upon a definition that has the tacit endorsement of the majority of world-leaders. Furthermore, I consider that too many man-years have been spent discussing this topic. Thankfully the UNCED definition recognises chemical risk assessment as being a process and not some immutable physical law. In this presentation I will attempt to explain some of the details and mechanisms of that process but first of all it is worthwhile to spend a few moments putting chemical risk assessment in its proper context and asking the simple question: why do we want/need to assess the potential risk of chemicals?. In general terms, chemicals risk assessment is carried out in order to ensure that neither man (consumer/worker/general public) nor the environment are exposed to unacceptable risks arising from the production, use and disposal of chemicals. At a national and/or international level, risk assessments are performed by the regulatory authorities before they accept notification dossiers (e.g. new industrial chemicals) or grant authorizations (e.g. pharmaceuticals, pesticides, cosmetics, food additives). At the local level, plant-operators must carry out risk assessments to ensure that in the particular circumstances of their factory the workers are adequately protected and that satisfactory accident prevention and contingency plans are prepared. Similarly, local authorities must carry out risk assessments before

  1. Strategy utilized for assessing baseline risks to human health from K-65 and metal oxide residues stored at the Fernald Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harmon, J.E. [FERMCO, Cincinnati, OH (United States). Fernald Environmental Management Project; Janke, R.C.

    1995-04-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) site in southwestern Ohio. The 425-hectare site consists of a former 55-hectare Production Area, an adjacent Waste Storage Area and various support facilities. From 1952 until 1989, the FEMP processed uranium into metallic {open_quotes}feed{close_quotes} materials for other DOE facilities in the nation`s defense program. In accordance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA), the FEMP site is currently listed on the National Priorities List (NPL). To facilitate an expeditious cleanup effort, environmental issues associated with site cleanup are being managed under five operable units. This paper summarizes the risk assessment strategy employed to determine baseline human health risks associated with K-65 and metal oxide residues currently stored in Operable Unit 4. The K-65 and metal oxide residues were generated during the 1950s as a result of the extraction of uranium from uranium-bearing ores and concentrates. These residues are currently stored within Operable Unit 4 in concrete silos. Silos I and 2 contain approximately 6,120 cubic meters [m{sup 3}] (8,005 cubic yards [yd{sup 3}]) of K-65 residues, while silos 3 contains approximately 3890 m{sup 3} (5,080 yd{sup 3}) of cold metal oxides. These concrete silos are beyond their design life and require remedial action. The risk assessment conducted for Operable Unit 4 constitutes the first detailed human health risk assessment to be approved by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the CERCLA clean-up effort at the FEMP Site. This paper discusses the FEMP`s use of a Risk Information Quality Objective process in concert with the traditional risk assessment approach to determine baseline risk to human health and the environment posed by Operable Unit 4. A summary of the baseline risks to human health is also presented.

  2. Advanced Korean Industrial Safety and Health Policy with Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyuckmyun Kwon

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This article describes a systematic roadmap master plan for advanced industrial safety and health policy in Korea, with an emphasis on. Since Korean industries had first emergence of industrial safety and health policy in 1953, enormous efforts have been made on upgrading the relevant laws in order to reflect real situation of industrial work environment in accordance with rapid changes of Korean and global business over three decades. Nevertheless, current policy has major defects; too much techniques-based articles, diverged contents in less organization, combined enforcement and punishments and finally enforcing regulations full of commands and control. These deficiencies have make it difficult to accommodate changes of social, industrial and employment environment in customized fashion. The approach to the solution must be generic at the level of paradigm- shift rather than local modifications and enhancement. The basic idea is to establish a new system integrated with a risk assessment scheme, which encourages employers to apply to their work environment under comprehensive responsibility. The risk assessment scheme is designed to enable to inspect employers’ compliances afterwards. A project comprises four yearly phases based on applying zones; initially designating and operating a specified risk zone, gradually expanding the special zones during a period of 3 years (2010-2012 and the final zone expanded to entire nation. In each phase, the intermediate version of the system is updated through a process of precise and unbiased validation in terms of its operability, feasibility and sustainability with building relevant infrastructures as needed.

  3. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  4. Advancing environmental risk assessment for transgenic biofeedstock crops

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolt Jeffrey D

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Transgenic modification of plants is a key enabling technology for developing sustainable biofeedstocks for biofuels production. Regulatory decisions and the wider acceptance and development of transgenic biofeedstock crops are considered from the context of science-based risk assessment. The risk assessment paradigm for transgenic biofeedstock crops is fundamentally no different from that of current generation transgenic crops, except that the focus of the assessment must consider the unique attributes of a given biofeedstock crop and its environmental release. For currently envisioned biofeedstock crops, particular emphasis in risk assessment will be given to characterization of altered metabolic profiles and their implications relative to non-target environmental effects and food safety; weediness and invasiveness when plants are modified for abiotic stress tolerance or are domesticated; and aggregate risk when plants are platforms for multi-product production. Robust risk assessments for transgenic biofeedstock crops are case-specific, initiated through problem formulation, and use tiered approaches for risk characterization.

  5. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  6. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  7. Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

  8. Assessing the risks for poliovirus outbreaks in polio-free countries--Africa, 2012-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-20

    In 2012, the World Health Assembly of the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the completion of polio eradication a programmatic emergency. Indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission remains uninterrupted in Nigeria (in the WHO African Region [AFR]) and in Afghanistan and Pakistan (in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region [EMR]). In the WHO AFR, multiple WPV outbreaks have occurred since 2003 after importation of indigenous West African WPV into 21 previously polio-free countries in a "WPV importation belt"* that extends across the continent. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) and WHO regional offices have used indicators of population immunity, surveillance quality, and other factors (e.g., high-risk subpopulations and proximity to WPV-affected countries) to assess the risk for outbreaks in polio-free countries and guide the implementation of risk mitigation measures to limit poliovirus transmission after WPV importation and prevent the emergence of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV). Despite risk mitigation efforts, a polio outbreak, first confirmed in May 2013, is ongoing; as of September 10, a total of 178 WPV type 1 (WPV1) cases have been reported in Somalia† (163 cases), Kenya (14 cases) and Ethiopia (1 case), after importation of WPV1 of West African origin. This report summarizes steps taken by the GPEI to assess and mitigate the risks for outbreaks after WPV importation or the emergence of cVDPV in polio-free countries within the WHO AFR's "WPV importation belt." All countries will continue to have some level of risk for WPV outbreaks as long as endemic circulation continues in Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Pakistan.

  9. Evaluation of safety assessment methodologies in Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide (1985) and Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report (1987)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walsh, B.; Fisher, C.; Zigler, G.; Clark, R.A.

    1990-01-01

    FSARs. Rockwell International, as operating contractor at the Rocky Flats plant, conducted a safety analysis program during the 1980s. That effort resulted in Final Safety Analysis Reports (FSARs) for several buildings, one of them being the Building 707 Final Safety Analysis Report, June 87 (707FSAR) and a Plant Safety Analysis Report. Rocky Flats Risk Assessment Guide, March 1985 (RFRAG85) documents the methodologies that were used for those FSARs. Resources available for preparation of those Rocky Flats FSARs were very limited. After addressing the more pressing safety issues, some of which are described below, the present contractor (EG ampersand G) intends to conduct a program of upgrading the FSARs. This report presents the results of a review of the methodologies described in RFRAG85 and 707FSAR and contains suggestions that might be incorporated into the methodology for the FSAR upgrade effort

  10. 78 FR 15894 - Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-13

    .... FDA-2012-N-1258] Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for... comment period for a document entitled ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/ [[Page... ``Draft Qualitative Risk Assessment of Risk of Activity/Food Combinations for Activities (Outside the Farm...

  11. Assessment of risk from radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subbaratnam, T.; Madhvanath, U.; Somasundaram, S.

    1976-01-01

    Assessment of risk from exposure to ionizing radiations from man-made radiation sources and nuclear installations has to be viewed from three aspects, namely, dose-effect relationship (genetic and somatic) for humans, calculation of doses or dose-commitments to population groups, assessment of risk to radiation workers and the population at large from the current levels of exposure from nuclear industry and comparison of risk estimates with other industries in a modern society. These aspects are discussed in brief. On the basis of available data, it is shown that estimated incidence of genetic diseases and cancers due to exposure of population to radiation from nuclear industry is negligible in comparison with their natural incidence, and radiation risks to the workers in nuclear industry are much lower than the risks in other occupations. (M.G.B.)

  12. International Space Station End-of-Life Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Gary W.

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) end-of-life (EOL) cycle is currently scheduled for 2020, although there are ongoing efforts to extend ISS life cycle through 2028. The EOL for the ISS will require deorbiting the ISS. This will be the largest manmade object ever to be de-orbited therefore safely deorbiting the station will be a very complex problem. This process is being planned by NASA and its international partners. Numerous factors will need to be considered to accomplish this such as target corridors, orbits, altitude, drag, maneuvering capabilities etc. The ISS EOL Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) will play a part in this process by estimating the reliability of the hardware supplying the maneuvering capabilities. The PRA will model the probability of failure of the systems supplying and controlling the thrust needed to aid in the de-orbit maneuvering.

  13. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  14. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  15. Research on risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. Preparation of maritime accident data for risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odano, Naoteru; Sawada, Ken-ichi; Mochiduki, Hiromitsu; Hirao, Yoshihiro; Asami, Mitsufumi

    2010-01-01

    Maritime transport of radioactive materials has been playing an important role in the nuclear fuel cycle in Japan. Due to recent increase of transported radioactive materials and diversification of transport packages with enlargement of nuclear research, development and utilization, safety securement for maritime transport of radioactive materials is one of important issues in the nuclear fuel cycle. Based squarely on the current circumstances, this paper summarizes discussion on importance of utilization of results of risk assessment for maritime transport of radioactive materials. A plan for development of comprehensive methodology to assess risks in maritime transport of radioactive materials is also described. Preparations of database of maritime accident to be necessary for risk assessment are also summarized. The prepared data could be utilized for future quantitative risk assessment, such as the event trees and fault trees analyses, for maritime transport of radioactive materials. The frequency of severe accident that the package might be damaged is also estimated using prepared data. (author)

  16. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  17. Assessment of intensity effort of middle-aged adults practicing regular walking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Anderson A; Lima, Daniela A; Vieira, Gabriella F; Fernandes, Aline A; Pereira, Danielle A G

    2015-01-01

    Walking is one of the most commonly recommended activities for sedentary individuals. When performed at the correct intensity, it can provide cardiovascular, respiratory, metabolic, and other benefits by providing a training effect in addition to reducing the risk of death from cardiovascular diseases and other chronic health conditions. The primary aim of this study was to assess whether individuals who practiced regular unsupervised walking carry out the activity safely and with sufficient effort intensity parameters to have a positive physiological (training) effect. The secondary objective was to compare the training heart rate (HR) and the stability of the HR within the ideal range of training between the sexes. Individuals were selected from walking tracks within the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil. The study included subjects from 40 to 60 years of age who had practiced walking for at least two months prior to the study, walking at least three times a week. Individuals who agreed to participate in the survey were asked to walk 15 minutes at their usual pace with their HR measured every 5 minutes using a heart rate monitor. Their average walking HR was compared to the average training HR based on the formula: (220 - age) × 70 to 80% that would result in a positive physiological training effect. Of the 142 individuals evaluated, 25.4% achieved the average training HR. This result was significantly lower than those who did not achieve the average training HR while walking (p=0.002). There were significant differences between men and women who had reached the training HR (p=0.0001). The authors found that individuals who walk regularly performed outside the range of the ideal HR intensity that would cause a positive physiological effect and therefore would probably not achieve a beneficial training effect while walking.

  18. Assessment of intensity effort of middle-aged adults practicing regular walking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson A. Silva

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Walking is one of the most commonly recommended activities for sedentary individuals. When performed at the correct intensity, it can provide cardiovascular, respiratory, metabolic, and other benefits by providing a training effect in addition to reducing the risk of death from cardiovascular diseases and other chronic health conditions. Objectives: The primary aim of this study was to assess whether individuals who practiced regular unsupervised walking carry out the activity safely and with sufficient effort intensity parameters to have a positive physiological (training effect. The secondary objective was to compare the training heart rate (HR and the stability of the HR within the ideal range of training between the sexes. Method: Individuals were selected from walking tracks within the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil. The study included subjects from 40 to 60 years of age who had practiced walking for at least two months prior to the study, walking at least three times a week. Individuals who agreed to participate in the survey were asked to walk 15 minutes at their usual pace with their HR measured every 5 minutes using a heart rate monitor. Their average walking HR was compared to the average training HR based on the formula: (220 - age × 70 to 80% that would result in a positive physiological training effect. Results: Of the 142 individuals evaluated, 25.4% achieved the average training HR. This result was significantly lower than those who did not achieve the average training HR while walking (p=0.002. There were significant differences between men and women who had reached the training HR (p=0.0001. Conclusion: The authors found that individuals who walk regularly performed outside the range of the ideal HR intensity that would cause a positive physiological effect and therefore would probably not achieve a beneficial training effect while walking.

  19. Risk perception, risk management and safety assessment: what can governments do to increase public confidence in their vaccine system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Noni E; Smith, Jennifer; Appleton, Mary

    2012-09-01

    For decades vaccine program managers and governments have devoted many resources to addressing public vaccine concerns, vaccine risk perception, risk management and safety assessment. Despite ever growing evidence that vaccines are safe and effective, public concerns continue. Education and evidence based scientific messages have not ended concerns. How can governments and programs more effectively address the public's vaccine concerns and increase confidence in the vaccine safety system? Vaccination hesitation has been attributed to concerns about vaccine safety, perceptions of high vaccine risks and low disease risk and consequences. Even when the public believes vaccines are important for protection many still have concerns about vaccine safety. This overview explores how heuristics affect public perception of vaccines and vaccine safety, how the public finds and uses vaccine information, and then proposes strategies for changes in the approach to vaccine safety communications. Facts and evidence confirming the safety of vaccines are not enough. Vaccine beliefs and behaviours must be shaped. This will require a shift in the what, when, how and why of vaccine risk and benefit communication content and practice. A change to a behavioural change strategy such as the WHO COMBI program that has been applied to disease eradication efforts is suggested. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10 -6 for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  1. Formulation and Presentation of Risk Assessments to Address Risk Targets for Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2002-10-01

    The Swedish regulators have been active in the field of performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facilities for many years and have developed sophisticated approaches to the development of scenarios and other aspects of assessments. These assessments have generally used dose as the assessment end-point. Regulations recently established in Sweden (SSI FS 1998:1) have introduced a risk criterion for radioactive waste disposal: the annual risk of harmful effects after closure of a disposal facility should not exceed 10{sup -6} for a representative individual in the group exposed to the greatest risk. This report evaluates different approaches to the definition and use of probabilities in the context of risk assessments, and examines the presentation of the results of risk assessments in safety cases to meet risk targets. The report illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different possible approaches to risk assessment by reference to assessments in other countries, and provides suggestions for future activity and development in this area by the Swedish regulators. The review of experience in other countries has led to a number of key observations relevant to the conduct of regulatory work on risk assessments and preparations for review. These highlight the importance of developing a protocol for conducting calculations, and linking such a protocol to the requirements of risk assessment calculations and to existing code and model capabilities. There are a number of decisions and assumptions required in developing a risk assessment methodology that could potentially affect the calculated results. These assumptions are independent of the analysis of performance, and relate to issues such as the expectation value of risk, risk dilution, the definition of probability density functions and achieving convergence. A review of a proponent's risk assessment should address these issues in determining the appropriateness and validity of the results presented

  2. Risk assessment of safety violations for coal mines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Megan Orsulaka; Vladislav Kecojevicb; Larry Graysona; Antonio Nietoa [Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA (United States). Dept of Energy and Mineral Engineering

    2010-09-15

    This article presents an application of a risk assessment approach in characterising the risks associated with safety violations in underground bituminous mines in Pennsylvania using the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA) citation database. The MSHA database on citations provides an opportunity to assess risks in mines through scrutiny of violations of mandatory safety standards. In this study, quantitative risk assessment is performed, which allows determination of the frequency of occurrence of safety violations (through associated citations) as well as the consequences of them in terms of penalty assessments. Focus is on establishing risk matrices on citation experiences of mines, which can give early indication of emerging potentially serious problems. The resulting frequency, consequence and risk rankings present valuable tools for prioritising resource allocations, determining control strategies, and could potentially contribute to more proactive prevention of incidents and injuries.

  3. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

  4. Assessing the Long-Term Impacts of Water Quality Outreach and Education Efforts on Agricultural Landowners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson-Smith, Douglas B.; McEvoy, Jamie P.

    2011-01-01

    We assess the long-term effectiveness of outreach and education efforts associated with a water quality improvement project in a watershed located in northern Utah, USA. Conducted 15 years after the original project began, our research examines the lasting impacts of different extension activities on landowners' motivations to participate and…

  5. Multi-attribute risk assessment for risk ranking of natural gas pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brito, A.J.; Almeida, A.T. de

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents a decision model for risk assessment and for risk ranking of sections of natural gas pipelines based on multi-attribute utility theory. Pipeline hazard scenarios are surveyed and the reasons for a risk assessment model based on a multi-attribute approach are presented. Three dimensions of impact and the need to translate decision-makers' preferences into risk management decisions are highlighted. The model approaches these factors by using a multi-attribute utility function, in order to produce multi-dimensional risk measurements. By using decision analysis concepts, this model quantitatively incorporates the decision-maker's preferences and behavior regarding risk within clear and consistent risk measurements. In order to support the prioritizing of critical sections of pipeline in natural gas companies, this multi-attribute model also allows sections of pipeline to be ranked into a risk hierarchy. A numerical application based on a real case study was undertaken so that the effectiveness of the decision model could be verified

  6. Assessment, Planning, and Execution Considerations for Conjunction Risk Assessment and Mitigation Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frigm, Ryan C.; Levi, Joshua A.; Mantziaras, Dimitrios C.

    2010-01-01

    An operational Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) concept is the real-time process of assessing risk posed by close approaches and reacting to those risks if necessary. The most effective way to completely mitigate conjunction risk is to perform an avoidance maneuver. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has implemented a routine CARA process since 2005. Over this period, considerable experience has been gained and many lessons have been learned. This paper identifies and presents these experiences as general concepts in the description of the Conjunction Assessment, Flight Dynamics, and Flight Operations methodologies and processes. These general concepts will be tied together and will be exemplified through a case study of an actual high risk conjunction event for the Aura mission.

  7. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  8. Effort-based decision making as an objective paradigm for the assessment of motivational deficits in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fervaha, Gagan; Duncan, Mark; Foussias, George; Agid, Ofer; Faulkner, Guy E; Remington, Gary

    2015-10-01

    Negative symptoms and motivational deficits are prevalent features of schizophrenia, and represent robust predictors of real-world functional outcomes. The standard for assessment of these symptoms is clinical interview and severity ratings on standardized rating scales. In the present study we examined the psychometric properties of a performance-based measure of motivational deficits in patients with schizophrenia. Ninety-seven patients with schizophrenia were included in this investigation. Patients' willingness to expend effort for reward (i.e., motivation) was evaluated using an effort-based decision making paradigm where participants chose over a series of trials whether to expend a greater amount of effort for a larger monetary reward versus less effort for a smaller reward. Effort performance was evaluated twice, separated by a two-week interval. Patients with schizophrenia opted to expend greater effort for trials with higher reward value and greater likelihood of reward receipt. Patients did not find the task overly difficult and reported being motivated to perform well, underscoring the tolerability of the task for patients. Test-retest consistency was good and there was only minimal change in scores over time. Effort performance was not related to sociodemographic or clinical variables (e.g., positive symptoms); however, deficit syndrome patients exerted effort for reward at a significantly lower rate than nondeficit patients. The effort-based decision making task used in the present study represents an objective paradigm that can be used to evaluate motivational impairments in patients with schizophrenia. Such performance-based measures of motivation may also serve as viable endpoints in clinical trials. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  10. Food allergy and risk assessment: Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remington, Benjamin C.

    2017-09-01

    Risk analysis is a three part, interactive process that consists of a scientific risk assessment, a risk management strategy and an exchange of information through risk communication. Quantitative risk assessment methodologies are now available and widely used for assessing risks regarding the unintentional consumption of major, regulated allergens but new or modified proteins can also pose a risk of de-novo sensitization. The risks due to de-novo sensitization to new food allergies are harder to quantify. There is a need for a systematic, comprehensive battery of tests and assessment strategy to identify and characterise de-novo sensitization to new proteins and the risks associated with them. A risk assessment must be attuned to answer the risk management questions and needs. Consequently, the hazard and risk assessment methods applied and the desired information are determined by the requested outcome for risk management purposes and decisions to be made. The COST Action network (ImpARAS, www.imparas.eu) has recently started to discuss these risk management criteria from first principles and will continue with the broader subject of improving strategies for allergen risk assessment throughout 2016-2018/9.

  11. Review process and quality assurance in the EBR-II probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roglans, J.; Hill, D.J.; Ragland, W.A.

    1992-01-01

    A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II), a Department of Energy (DOE) Category A reactor, has recently been completed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL). Within the scope of the ANL QA Programs, a QA Plan specifically for the EBR-II PRA was developed. The QA Plan covered all aspects of the PRA development, with emphasis on the procedures for document and software control, and the internal and external review process. The effort spent in the quality assurance tasks for the EBR-II PRA has reciprocated by providing acceptance of the work and confidence in the quality of the results

  12. Toward refined environmental scenarios for ecological risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals in freshwater environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, Antonio; Price, Oliver R; Marshall, Stuart; Jolliet, Olivier; Van den Brink, Paul J; Rico, Andreu; Focks, Andreas; De Laender, Frederik; Ashauer, Roman

    2017-03-01

    Current regulatory practice for chemical risk assessment suffers from the lack of realism in conventional frameworks. Despite significant advances in exposure and ecological effect modeling, the implementation of novel approaches as high-tier options for prospective regulatory risk assessment remains limited, particularly among general chemicals such as down-the-drain ingredients. While reviewing the current state of the art in environmental exposure and ecological effect modeling, we propose a scenario-based framework that enables a better integration of exposure and effect assessments in a tiered approach. Global- to catchment-scale spatially explicit exposure models can be used to identify areas of higher exposure and to generate ecologically relevant exposure information for input into effect models. Numerous examples of mechanistic ecological effect models demonstrate that it is technically feasible to extrapolate from individual-level effects to effects at higher levels of biological organization and from laboratory to environmental conditions. However, the data required to parameterize effect models that can embrace the complexity of ecosystems are large and require a targeted approach. Experimental efforts should, therefore, focus on vulnerable species and/or traits and ecological conditions of relevance. We outline key research needs to address the challenges that currently hinder the practical application of advanced model-based approaches to risk assessment of down-the-drain chemicals. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:233-248. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

  13. Risk assessment techniques with applicability in marine engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudenko, E.; Panaitescu, F. V.; Panaitescu, M.

    2015-11-01

    Nowadays risk management is a carefully planned process. The task of risk management is organically woven into the general problem of increasing the efficiency of business. Passive attitude to risk and awareness of its existence are replaced by active management techniques. Risk assessment is one of the most important stages of risk management, since for risk management it is necessary first to analyze and evaluate risk. There are many definitions of this notion but in general case risk assessment refers to the systematic process of identifying the factors and types of risk and their quantitative assessment, i.e. risk analysis methodology combines mutually complementary quantitative and qualitative approaches. Purpose of the work: In this paper we will consider as risk assessment technique Fault Tree analysis (FTA). The objectives are: understand purpose of FTA, understand and apply rules of Boolean algebra, analyse a simple system using FTA, FTA advantages and disadvantages. Research and methodology: The main purpose is to help identify potential causes of system failures before the failures actually occur. We can evaluate the probability of the Top event.The steps of this analize are: the system's examination from Top to Down, the use of symbols to represent events, the use of mathematical tools for critical areas, the use of Fault tree logic diagrams to identify the cause of the Top event. Results: In the finally of study it will be obtained: critical areas, Fault tree logical diagrams and the probability of the Top event. These results can be used for the risk assessment analyses.

  14. Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ragozin, A.L.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

  15. Resource handbook on transport risk assessment (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; Luna, R.; Weiner, R.; Yoshimura, R.; Detrick, C.; Dunn, T.; Maheras, S.; Bhatnager, S.; Kapoor, A.K.

    2003-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Transportation Program established the DOE Transportation Risk Assessment Working Group (TRAWG) to develop the Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment, published in July 2002. The working group is comprised of technical experts representing DOE national laboratories, the DOE Naval Reactors Program, and DOE contractors. The motivation behind preparing this handbook was to document and disseminate lessons learned and information accumulated from more than 20 years of experience by DOE and its contractors in preparing transport risk assessments that address the shipment of virtually all types of radioactive materials and wastes. The handbook is intended to serve as a primary source of information on conducting transport risk assessments for shipments of radioactive materials or wastes under both normal and accident conditions. The paper provides an overview of the information contained in the handbook. It should be recognised that development of radioactive materials transport risk assessment is an ongoing process, and that the analysis methods are regularly improved. The Resource Handbook on DOE Transportation Risk Assessment appears on the Web at www.ntp.doe.gov/transrisk_handbook.pdf. (author)

  16. Establishment of safety goal and its quantification based on risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyano, Hiroshi; Muramatsu, Ken

    2017-01-01

    We must clarify the safety objectives sought by society in securing the safety of nuclear reactors and nuclear power plants. For that purpose, it is useful to utilize risk assessment. Quantitative methods including probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) are superior in terms of scientific rationality and quantitative performance compared with conventional deterministic methods, and able to indicate an objective numerical value of safety level. Consequently, quantitative methods can enhance the transparency, consistency, compliance, predictability, and explanatory power of regulatory decisions toward business operators and citizens. Business operators can explain the validity of their own safety assurance activities to regulators and citizens. The goal to be secured becomes clear by incorporating the safety goal into the specific performance goal required for the nuclear power plant from the viewpoint of deep safeguard, and it becomes easy to evaluate the effectiveness of the safety measures. It helps us greatly in judging and selecting the appropriateness of safety measures. It should be noted: the fact that the result of implementing the PRA satisfies the safety goal is not a sufficient condition in the sense of guaranteeing complete safety but a necessary condition. The nuclear power field is a region with large uncertainty, and research/efforts for accuracy improvement and evaluation validity will be required continuously. (A.O.)

  17. Improvements to the Ionizing Radiation Risk Assessment Program for NASA Astronauts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semones, E. J.; Bahadori, A. A.; Picco, C. E.; Shavers, M. R.; Flores-McLaughlin, J.

    2011-01-01

    To perform dosimetry and risk assessment, NASA collects astronaut ionizing radiation exposure data from space flight, medical imaging and therapy, aviation training activities and prior occupational exposure histories. Career risk of exposure induced death (REID) from radiation is limited to 3 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The Radiation Health Office at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is implementing a program to integrate the gathering, storage, analysis and reporting of astronaut ionizing radiation dose and risk data and records. This work has several motivations, including more efficient analyses and greater flexibility in testing and adopting new methods for evaluating risks. The foundation for these improvements is a set of software tools called the Astronaut Radiation Exposure Analysis System (AREAS). AREAS is a series of MATLAB(Registered TradeMark)-based dose and risk analysis modules that interface with an enterprise level SQL Server database by means of a secure web service. It communicates with other JSC medical and space weather databases to maintain data integrity and consistency across systems. AREAS is part of a larger NASA Space Medicine effort, the Mission Medical Integration Strategy, with the goal of collecting accurate, high-quality and detailed astronaut health data, and then securely, timely and reliably presenting it to medical support personnel. The modular approach to the AREAS design accommodates past, current, and future sources of data from active and passive detectors, space radiation transport algorithms, computational phantoms and cancer risk models. Revisions of the cancer risk model, new radiation detection equipment and improved anthropomorphic computational phantoms can be incorporated. Notable hardware updates include the Radiation Environment Monitor (which uses Medipix technology to report real-time, on-board dosimetry measurements), an updated Tissue-Equivalent Proportional Counter, and the Southwest Research Institute

  18. Safety and security risk assessments--now demystified!

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Donald E

    2011-01-01

    Safety/security risk assessments no longer need to spook nor baffle healthcare safety/security managers. This grid template provides at-at-glance quick lookup of the possible threats, the affected people and things, a priority ranking of these risks, and a workable solution for each risk. Using the standard document, spreadsheet, or graphics software already available on your computer, you can easily use a scientific method to produce professional looking risk assessments that get quickly understood by both senior managers and first responders alike!

  19. Military Ecological Risk Assessment Framework (MERAF) for Assessment of Risks of Military Training and Testing to Natural Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suter II, G.W.

    2003-06-18

    The objective of this research is to provide the DoD with a framework based on a systematic, risk-based approach to assess impacts for management of natural resources in an ecosystem context. This risk assessment framework is consistent with, but extends beyond, the EPA's ecological risk assessment framework, and specifically addresses DoD activities and management needs. MERAF is intended to be consistent with existing procedures for environmental assessment and planning with DoD testing and training. The intention is to supplement these procedures rather than creating new procedural requirements. MERAF is suitable for use for training and testing area assessment and management. It does not include human health risks nor does it address specific permitting or compliance requirements, although it may be useful in some of these cases. Use of MERAF fits into the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process by providing a consistent and rigorous way of organizing and conducting the technical analysis for Environmental Impact Statements (EISs) (Sigal 1993; Carpenter 1995; Canter and Sadler 1997). It neither conflicts with, nor replaces, procedural requirements within the NEPA process or document management processes already in place within DoD.

  20. Preliminary risk assessment for nuclear waste disposal in space. Volume I. Executive summary of technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, E.E.; Denning, R.S.; Friedlander, A.L.

    1982-01-01

    Three major conclusions come from this preliminary risk assessment of nuclear waste disposal in space. Preliminary estimates of space disposal risk are low, even with the estimated uncertainty bounds. If calculated mined geologic repository (MGR) release risks remain low, and the EPA requirements continue to be met, then no additional space disposal study effort is warranted. If risks perceived by the public are significant in the acceptance of mined geologic repositories, then consideration of space disposal as an MGR complement is warranted. As a result of this study, the following recommendations are made to NASA and the US DOE: During the continued evaluation of the mined geologic repository risk over the years ahead by DOE, if any significant increase in the calculated health risk is predicted for the MGR, then space disposal should be reevaluated at that time. The risks perceived by the public for the MGR should be evaluated on a broad basis by an independent organization to evaluate acceptance. If, in the future, MGR risks are found to be significant due to some presently unknown technical or social factor, and space disposal is selected as an alternative that may be useful in mitigating the risks, then the following space disposal study activities are recommended: improvement in chemical processing technology for wastes; payload accident response analysis; risk uncertainty analysis for both MGR and space disposal; health risk modeling that includes pathway and dose estimates; space disposal cost modeling; assessment of space disposal perceived (by public) risk benefit; and space systems analysis supporting risk and cost modeling

  1. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with

  2. Ecological Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Higher Plants (GMHP)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjær, C.; Damgaard, C.; Kjellsson, G.

    Preface This publication is a first version of a manual identifying the data needs for ecological risk assessment of genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). It is the intention of the authors to stimulate further discussion of what data are needed in order to conduct a proper ecological risk...... of the project Biotechnology: elements in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. December 1999 Christian Kjær Introduction In ecological risk assessment of transgenic plants, information on a wide range of subjects is needed for an effective and reliable assessment procedure...... in the amendment to the directive. This report suggests a structured way to identify the type of data needed to perform a sound ecological risk assessment for genetically modified higher plants (GMHP). The identified data types are intended to support the evaluation of the following risks: risk of invasion...

  3. Effort Estimation in BPMS Migration

    OpenAIRE

    Drews, Christopher; Lantow, Birger

    2018-01-01

    Usually Business Process Management Systems (BPMS) are highly integrated in the IT of organizations and are at the core of their business. Thus, migrating from one BPMS solution to another is not a common task. However, there are forces that are pushing organizations to perform this step, e.g. maintenance costs of legacy BPMS or the need for additional functionality. Before the actual migration, the risk and the effort must be evaluated. This work provides a framework for effort estimation re...

  4. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  5. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  6. Effort-Reward Imbalance at Work and Incident Coronary Heart Disease: A Multicohort Study of 90,164 Individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dragano, Nico; Siegrist, Johannes; Nyberg, Solja T; Lunau, Thorsten; Fransson, Eleonor I; Alfredsson, Lars; Bjorner, Jakob B; Borritz, Marianne; Burr, Hermann; Erbel, Raimund; Fahlén, Göran; Goldberg, Marcel; Hamer, Mark; Heikkilä, Katriina; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Knutsson, Anders; Madsen, Ida E H; Nielsen, Martin L; Nordin, Maria; Oksanen, Tuula; Pejtersen, Jan H; Pentti, Jaana; Rugulies, Reiner; Salo, Paula; Schupp, Jürgen; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Steptoe, Andrew; Theorell, Töres; Vahtera, Jussi; Westerholm, Peter J M; Westerlund, Hugo; Virtanen, Marianna; Zins, Marie; Batty, G David; Kivimäki, Mika

    2017-07-01

    Epidemiologic evidence for work stress as a risk factor for coronary heart disease is mostly based on a single measure of stressful work known as job strain, a combination of high demands and low job control. We examined whether a complementary stress measure that assesses an imbalance between efforts spent at work and rewards received predicted coronary heart disease. This multicohort study (the "IPD-Work" consortium) was based on harmonized individual-level data from 11 European prospective cohort studies. Stressful work in 90,164 men and women without coronary heart disease at baseline was assessed by validated effort-reward imbalance and job strain questionnaires. We defined incident coronary heart disease as the first nonfatal myocardial infarction or coronary death. Study-specific estimates were pooled by random effects meta-analysis. At baseline, 31.7% of study members reported effort-reward imbalance at work and 15.9% reported job strain. During a mean follow-up of 9.8 years, 1,078 coronary events were recorded. After adjustment for potential confounders, a hazard ratio of 1.16 (95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.35) was observed for effort-reward imbalance compared with no imbalance. The hazard ratio was 1.16 (1.01-1.34) for having either effort-reward imbalance or job strain and 1.41 (1.12-1.76) for having both these stressors compared to having neither effort-reward imbalance nor job strain. Individuals with effort-reward imbalance at work have an increased risk of coronary heart disease, and this appears to be independent of job strain experienced. These findings support expanding focus beyond just job strain in future research on work stress.

  7. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  8. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  9. [Medical safety management in the setting of a clinical reference laboratory--risk management efforts in clinical testing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seki, Akira; Miya, Tetsumasa

    2011-03-01

    As a result of recurring medical accidents, risk management in the medical setting has been given much attention. The announcement in August, 2000 by the Ministry of Health committee for formulating a standard manual for risk management, of a "Risk management manual formulation guideline" has since been accompanied by the efforts of numerous medical testing facilities to develop such documents. In 2008, ISO/TS 22367:2008 on "Medical laboratories-Reduction of error through risk management and continual improvement" was published. However, at present, risk management within a medical testing facility stresses the implementation of provisional actions in response to a problem after it has occurred. Risk management is basically a planned process and includes "corrective actions" as well as "preventive actions." A corrective action is defined as identifying the root cause of the problem and removing it, and is conducted to prevent the problem from recurring. A preventive action is defined as identifying of the any potential problem and removing it, and is conducted to prevent a problem before it occurs. Presently, I shall report on the experiences of our laboratory regarding corrective and preventive actions taken in response to accidents and incidents, respectively.

  10. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  11. Supplementing quantitative risk assessments with a stage addressing the risk understanding of the decision maker

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, Terje

    2016-01-01

    A quantitative probabilistic risk assessment produces a conditional risk description given the knowledge of the analysts (formulated to a large extent through assumptions). However, important aspects of the risk may be concealed in the background knowledge of the analyst and the assumptions. This paper discusses this issue, the main purpose being to present a two-stage risk assessment approach where the second stage addresses the risk understanding of the decision maker. This second-stage is to a large extent qualitative. The approach is novel with its separation between the analysts' conditional risk descriptions using probability judgments, and the decision maker's risk understanding. The approach aims at improving the use of risk assessment in practical decision making by ensuring that the results of the risk assessments are properly interpreted and the key aspects of risk, uncertainty and knowledge are brought to attention for the decision makers. Examples are used to illustrate the approach. - Highlights: • A quantitative risk assessment produces a conditional risk description. • The decision maker (DM) needs to address risk beyond this description. • The paper presents a related two-stage process, covering analyst and DM judgments. • The second stage relates to the DM's risk understanding. • Strength of knowledge judgments are included in both stages.

  12. The impact of failing to identify suspect effort in patients undergoing adult attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Paul S; Hoelzle, James B; Heyerdahl, Danielle; Nelson, Nathaniel W

    2016-10-01

    [Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported in Vol 28(10) of Psychological Assessment (see record 2016-22725-001). In the article, the penultimate sentence of the abstract should read “These results suggest that a significant percentage of those making a suspect effort will be diagnosed with ADHD using the most commonly employed assessment methods: an interview alone (71%); an interview and ADHD behavior rating scales combined (65%); and an interview, behavior rating scales, and most continuous performance tests combined (62%).” All versions of this article have been corrected.] This retrospective study examines how many adult patients would plausibly receive a diagnosis of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) if performance and symptom validity measures were not administered during neuropsychological evaluations. Five hundred fifty-four patients were extracted from an archival clinical dataset. A total of 102 were diagnosed with ADHD based on cognitive testing, behavior rating scales, effort testing, and clinical interview; 115 were identified as putting forth suspect effort in accordance with the Slick, Sherman, and Iverson (1999) criteria. From a clinical decision-making perspective, suspect effort and ADHD groups were nearly indistinguishable on ADHD behavior, executive function, and functional impairment rating scales, as well as on cognitive testing and key clinical interview questions. These results suggest that a significant percentage of those making a suspect effort will be diagnosed with ADHD using the most commonly employed assessment methods: an interview alone (71%); an interview and ADHD behavior rating scales combined (65%); and an interview, behavior rating scales, and most continuous performance tests combined (62%) [corrected]. This research makes clear that it is essential to evaluate task engagement and possible symptom amplification during clinical evaluations. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights

  13. Effort Estimation in BPMS Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Drews

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Usually Business Process Management Systems (BPMS are highly integrated in the IT of organizations and are at the core of their business. Thus, migrating from one BPMS solution to another is not a common task. However, there are forces that are pushing organizations to perform this step, e.g. maintenance costs of legacy BPMS or the need for additional functionality. Before the actual migration, the risk and the effort must be evaluated. This work provides a framework for effort estimation regarding the technical aspects of BPMS migration. The framework provides questions for BPMS comparison and an effort evaluation schema. The applicability of the framework is evaluated based on a simplified BPMS migration scenario.

  14. Assessment of a tool for measuring non-profit advocacy efforts in India, Uganda and Yemen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalwani, Tanya; Rajaratnam, Julie Knoll; McOwen, Jordan; Gordis, Deborah J; Bowen, Lisa A; Bernson, Jeff

    2016-03-01

    To improve maternal and child health, the White Ribbon Alliance for Safe Motherhood (WRA) implemented an innovative policy advocacy project in India, Uganda and Yemen from 2009 to 2011. PATH assisted WRA in designing an approach to measure the short- and long-term results of WRA's advocacy efforts.Expert rating instruments have been widely used since 1970s to track country-level program efforts focusing on family planning, maternal and neonatal health, and HIV/AIDS. This article assesses and establishes the strength and applicability of an expert rating tool, the Maternal Health Policy Score (MHPS), in measuring and guiding a non-profit's advocacy efforts.The tool was assessed using five criteria: validity of results, reproducibility of results, acceptability to respondents, internal consistency and cost. The tool proved effective for measuring improvements in the policy environment at both the national and subnational levels that the non-profit intended to effect and useful for identifying strong and weak policy domains. The results are reproducible, though ensuring fidelity in implementation during different rounds of data collection may be difficult. The acceptability of the tool was high among respondents, and also among users of the information.MHPS provides a quick, low-cost method to measure overall changes in the policy environment, giving advocacy organizations and grant makers timely information to gauge the influence of their work and take corrective action. WRA demonstrated the use of MHPS at multiple points in the project: at the onset of a project to identify and strategize around policy domains that need attention, during and at the end of the project to monitor progress made and redirect efforts. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Automatic breast cancer risk assessment from digital mammograms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karemore, Gopal Raghunath; Brandt, Sami; Karssemeijer, N

    Purpose: Textural characteristics of the breast tissue structure on mammogram have been shown to improve breast cancer risk assessment in several large studies. Currently, however, the texture is not used to assess risk in standard clinical procedures or involved in general breast cancer risk ass...

  16. Critical notes on microbiological risk assessment of food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reij, M.W.; Schothorst, van M.

    2000-01-01

    Although numerous papers on Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) of food products have been published, a number of issues related to it remain unresolved. This paper explains the role of Microbiological Risk Assessment in the context of Risk Analysis as outlined by Codex Alimentarius. It reviews

  17. Risk-informed design of IRIS using a level-1 probabilistic risk assessment from its conceptual design phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizuno, Yuko; Ninokata, Hisashi; Finnicum, David J.

    2005-01-01

    In this study, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for the International Reactor Innovative and Secure (IRIS) has been generated to address two key areas as a part of the effort for the pre-application licensing of the IRIS design. First, the IRIS PRA is supporting the evaluation of IRIS design by providing design insights as well as a solid risk basis for the pre-licensing evaluation of the IRIS design. Second, the current PRA task is beginning the preparation of the more complete PRA analyses and documentation that will be required for Design Certification. The initial IRIS PRA is an at-power, Level-1 PRA for internal events that focuses on the evaluation of the IRIS design features to support the risk-informed design of IRIS by application of the PRA insights and the risk information to the design. To accomplish the evaluation, a reasonably complete Level-1 PRA model has been developed. The use of PRA in the early stages of the design has allowed a selection of design and performance features and an optimization of the design of several systems to reduce the potential for events that could lead to core damage via both enhanced prevention and mitigation of challenges. As a result, the total core damage frequency for internal events for the IRIS design has been calculated as 1.2x10 -8 per year

  18. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment in the nuclear power industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fullwood, R.R.; Hall, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    This book describes the more important improvements in risk assessment methodology developed over the last decade. The book covers the following areas - a general view of risk pertaining to nuclear power, mathematics necessary to understand the text, a concise overview of the light water reactors and their features for protecting the public, probabilities and consequences calculated to form risk assessment to the plant, and 34 applications of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the power generation industry. There is a glossary of acronyms and unusual words and a list of references. (author)

  20. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.