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Sample records for risk assessment economic

  1. Economic impact assessment in pest risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soliman, T.A.A.; Mourits, M.C.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Werf, van der W.

    2010-01-01

    According to international treaties, phytosanitary measures against introduction and spread of invasive plant pests must be justified by a science-based pest risk analysis (PRA). Part of the PRA consists of an assessment of potential economic consequences. This paper evaluates the main available

  2. Overcoming barriers to integrating economic analysis into risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Sandra

    2011-09-01

    Regulatory risk analysis is designed to provide decisionmakers with a clearer understanding of how policies are likely to affect risk. The systems that produce risk are biological, physical, and social and economic. As a result, risk analysis is an inherently interdisciplinary task. Yet in practice, risk analysis has been interdisciplinary in only limited ways. Risk analysis could provide more accurate assessments of risk if there were better integration of economics and other social sciences into risk assessment itself. This essay examines how discussions about risk analysis policy have influenced the roles of various disciplines in risk analysis. It explores ways in which integrated bio/physical-economic modeling could contribute to more accurate assessments of risk. It reviews examples of the kind of integrated economics-bio/physical modeling that could be used to enhance risk assessment. The essay ends with a discussion of institutional barriers to greater integration of economic modeling into risk assessment and provides suggestions on how these might be overcome. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Economic Risk Assessment Taking Into Account the Volume Oscillator Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Loredana Mihaela LAPADUSI

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Economic risk can be assessed from many points of view, but generally speaking it means the firm's inability to match workload with cost structure. Expansion of production capacity, adaptation to new technologies, diversification of products are only a few factors influencing risk. These, along with financial risk and bankruptcy risk constitute the most important category of risk which presents a great interest for the banks, shareholders, managers, business partners, etc. The purpose of this article is to provide a brief overview of tje oscillation of your company's activity from the point of view of economic risk. The main objective of this research lies in economic risk assessment by means of the margin of safety, the safety index and critical time point.

  4. Economic aspects of risk assessment in chemical safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drummond, M F; Shannon, H S

    1986-05-01

    This paper considers how the economic aspects of risk assessment in chemical safety can be strengthened. Its main focus is on how economic appraisal techniques, such as cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis, can be adapted to the requirements of the risk-assessment process. Following a discussion of the main methodological issues raised by the use of economic appraisal, illustrated by examples from the health and safety field, a number of practical issues are discussed. These include the consideration of the distribution of costs, effects and benefits, taking account of uncertainty, risk probabilities and public perception, making the appraisal techniques useful to the early stages of the risk-assessment process and structuring the appraisal to permit continuous feedback to the participants in the risk-assessment process. It is concluded that while the way of thinking embodied in economic appraisal is highly relevant to the consideration of choices in chemical safety, the application of these principles in formal analysis of risk reduction procedures presents a more mixed picture. The main suggestions for improvement in the analyses performed are the undertaking of sensitivity analyses of study results to changes in the key assumptions, the presentation of the distribution of costs and benefits by viewpoint, the comparison of health and safety measures in terms of their incremental cost per life-year (or quality-adjusted life-year) gained and the more frequent retrospective review and revision of the economic analyses that are undertaken.

  5. An economic assessment of population health risk in region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Vladimirovna Zaytseva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a method of economic assessment of population health risk as a tool of life qualitymanagement and qualityof labor resources in the region (as factors of a region’s economic security. The technique is based on the cost of reducing the period of disability in the implementation of population health risk and takes into account the effects of risk prevention on levels of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation. The method intends to support making decisions on planning measures to reduce population health risk at the level of regions, territories and separate objects to assess their cost-performance, optimization of investment and operating costs to reduce the population health risk and sustainable development of the territory

  6. Economic risk assessment of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

    2017-07-01

    In this paper we present an innovative framework for an economic risk analysis of drought impacts on irrigated agriculture. It consists on the integration of three components: stochastic time series modelling for prediction of inflows and future reservoir storages at the beginning of the irrigation season; statistical regression for the evaluation of water deliveries based on projected inflows and storages; and econometric modelling for economic assessment of the production value of agriculture based on irrigation water deliveries and crop prices. Therefore, the effect of the price volatility can be isolated from the losses due to water scarcity in the assessment of the drought impacts. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to generate probability functions of inflows, which are translated into probabilities of storages, deliveries, and finally, production value of agriculture. The framework also allows the assessment of the value of mitigation measures as reduction of economic losses during droughts. The approach was applied to the Jucar river basin, a complex system affected by multiannual severe droughts, with irrigated agriculture as the main consumptive demand. Probability distributions of deliveries and production value were obtained for each irrigation season. In the majority of the irrigation districts, drought causes a significant economic impact. The increase of crop prices can partially offset the losses from the reduction of production due to water scarcity in some districts. Emergency wells contribute to mitigating the droughts' impacts on the Jucar river system.

  7. Continuity of supply - Economic assessment and associated risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Preotescu, Dan; Albert, Hermina

    2004-01-01

    of risks that might occur, then in a subsequent stage to quantify them (economic assessment). The paper describes the most significant risk categories involved in the operation of grid companies that play on the electricity market, and a methodology to assess them is proposed. The importance and outcomes of the interconnection between the power system and the conditions to be monitored in the points where contracts between partners are carried out (electric power systems, countries) will be taken into account. (authors)

  8. The assessment of risk management system’s economic efficiency in retail banking

    OpenAIRE

    Cvilikas, Aurelijus; Paužuolis, Vaidas

    2014-01-01

    The banking risk management is always a relevant topic in financial sector’s academic literature, but the detailed analysis of current studies showed that there is a lack of studies in risk management’s economic efficiency assessment in retail banking, where the risk management system’s administration cost may be a significant part of total credit institution’s cost. The scientific problem of this article is: how the economic efficiency of retail banking risk management system could be ...

  9. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  10. Assessing social and economic effects of perceived risk: Workshop summary: Draft: BWIP Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nealey, S.M.; Liebow, E.B.

    1988-03-01

    The US Department of Energy sponsored a one-day workshop to discuss the complex dimensions of risk judgment formation and the assessment of social and economic effects of risk perceptions related to the permanent underground storage of highly radioactive waste from commercial nuclear power plants. Affected parties have publicly expressed concerns about potentially significant risk-related effects of this approach to waste management. A selective review of relevant literature in psychology, decision analysis, economics, sociology, and anthropology was completed, along with an examination of decision analysis techniques that might assist in developing suitable responses to public risk-related concerns. The workshop was organized as a forum in which a set of distinguished experts could exchange ideas and observations about the problems of characterizing the effects of risk judgments. Out of the exchange emerged the issues or themes of problems with probabilistic risk assessment techniques are evident; differences exist in the way experts and laypersons view risk, and this leads to higher levels of public concern than experts feel are justified; experts, risk managers, and decision-makers sometimes err in assessing risk and in dealing with the public; credibility and trust are important contributing factors in the formation of risk judgments; social and economic consequences of perceived risk should be properly anticipated; improvements can be made in informing the public about risk; the role of the public in risk assessment, risk management and decisions about risk should be reconsidered; and mitigation and compensation are central to resolving conflicts arising from divergent risk judgments. 1 tab

  11. From Physical Process to Economic Cost - Integrated Approaches of Landslide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klose, M.; Damm, B.

    2014-12-01

    The nature of landslides is complex in many respects, with landslide hazard and impact being dependent on a variety of factors. This obviously requires an integrated assessment for fundamental understanding of landslide risk. Integrated risk assessment, according to the approach presented in this contribution, implies combining prediction of future landslide occurrence with analysis of landslide impact in the past. A critical step for assessing landslide risk in integrated perspective is to analyze what types of landslide damage affected people and property in which way and how people contributed and responded to these damage types. In integrated risk assessment, the focus is on systematic identification and monetization of landslide damage, and analytical tools that allow deriving economic costs from physical landslide processes are at the heart of this approach. The broad spectrum of landslide types and process mechanisms as well as nonlinearity between landslide magnitude, damage intensity, and direct costs are some main factors explaining recent challenges in risk assessment. The two prevailing approaches for assessing the impact of landslides in economic terms are cost survey (ex-post) and risk analysis (ex-ante). Both approaches are able to complement each other, but yet a combination of them has not been realized so far. It is common practice today to derive landslide risk without considering landslide process-based cause-effect relationships, since integrated concepts or new modeling tools expanding conventional methods are still widely missing. The approach introduced in this contribution is based on a systematic framework that combines cost survey and GIS-based tools for hazard or cost modeling with methods to assess interactions between land use practices and landslides in historical perspective. Fundamental understanding of landslide risk also requires knowledge about the economic and fiscal relevance of landslide losses, wherefore analysis of their

  12. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  13. A framework for techno-economic & environmental sustainability analysis by risk assessment for conceptual process evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Sin, Gürkan; Carvalho, Ana

    2016-01-01

    for techno-economic and environmental sustainability analysis through risk assessment is proposed for the early-stage design and screening of conceptual process alternatives. The alternatives within the design space are analyzed following the framework’s work-flow, which targets the following: (i) quantify...... the economic risk; (ii) perform the monetary valuation of environmental impact categories under uncertainty; (iii) quantify the potential environmental risk; (iv) measure the alternatives’ eco-efficiency identifying possible trade-offs; and, lastly (v) propose a joint risk assessment matrix......The need to achieve a sustainable process performance has become increasingly important in order to keep a competitive advantage in the global markets. Development of comprehensive and systematic methods to accomplish this goal is the subject of this work. To this end, a multi-level framework...

  14. A framework for techno-economic & environmental sustainability analysis by risk assessment for conceptual process evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Sin, Gürkan; Carvalho, Ana

    2016-01-01

    the economic risk; (ii) perform the monetary valuation of environmental impact categories under uncertainty; (iii) quantify the potential environmental risk; (iv) measure the alternatives’ eco-efficiency identifying possible trade-offs; and, lastly (v) propose a joint risk assessment matrix......The need to achieve a sustainable process performance has become increasingly important in order to keep a competitive advantage in the global markets. Development of comprehensive and systematic methods to accomplish this goal is the subject of this work. To this end, a multi-level framework...... for techno-economic and environmental sustainability analysis through risk assessment is proposed for the early-stage design and screening of conceptual process alternatives. The alternatives within the design space are analyzed following the framework’s work-flow, which targets the following: (i) quantify...

  15. Assessing the potential of economic instruments for managing drought risk at river basin scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

    2015-12-01

    Economic instruments work as incentives to adapt individual decisions to collectively agreed goals. Different types of economic instruments have been applied to manage water resources, such as water-related taxes and charges (water pricing, environmental taxes, etc.), subsidies, markets or voluntary agreements. Hydroeconomic models (HEM) provide useful insight on optimal strategies for coping with droughts by simultaneously analysing engineering, hydrology and economics of water resources management. We use HEMs for evaluating the potential of economic instruments on managing drought risk at river basin scale, considering three criteria for assessing drought risk: reliability, resilience and vulnerability. HEMs allow to calculate water scarcity costs as the economic losses due to water deliveries below the target demands, which can be used as a vulnerability descriptor of drought risk. Two generic hydroeconomic DSS tools, SIMGAMS and OPTIGAMS ( both programmed in GAMS) have been developed to evaluate water scarcity cost at river basin scale based on simulation and optimization approaches. The simulation tool SIMGAMS allocates water according to the system priorities and operating rules, and evaluate the scarcity costs using economic demand functions. The optimization tool allocates water resources for maximizing net benefits (minimizing total water scarcity plus operating cost of water use). SIMGAS allows to simulate incentive water pricing policies based on water availability in the system (scarcity pricing), while OPTIGAMS is used to simulate the effect of ideal water markets by economic optimization. These tools have been applied to the Jucar river system (Spain), highly regulated and with high share of water use for crop irrigation (greater than 80%), where water scarcity, irregular hydrology and groundwater overdraft cause droughts to have significant economic, social and environmental consequences. An econometric model was first used to explain the variation

  16. Public health and economic risk assessment of waterborne contaminants and pathogens in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juntunen, Janne; Meriläinen, Päivi; Simola, Antti

    2017-12-01

    This study shows that a variety of mathematical modeling techniques can be applied in a comprehensive assessment of the risks involved in drinking water production. In order to track the effects from water sources to the end consumers, we employed four models from different fields of study. First, two models of the physical environment, which track the movement of harmful substances from the sources to the water distribution. Second, a statistical quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to assess the public health risks of the consumption of such water. Finally, a regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the economic effects of increased illnesses. In order to substantiate our analysis, we used an illustrative case of a recently built artificial recharge system in Southern Finland that provides water for a 300,000 inhabitant area. We examine the effects of various chemicals and microbes separately. Our economic calculations allow for direct effects on labor productivity due to absenteeism, increased health care expenditures and indirect effects for local businesses. We found that even a considerable risk has no notable threat to public health and thus barely measurable economic consequences. Any epidemic is likely to spread widely in the urban setting we examined, but is also going to be short-lived in both public health and economic terms. Our estimate for the ratio of total and direct effects is 1.4, which indicates the importance of general equilibrium effects. Furthermore, the total welfare loss is 2.4 times higher than the initial productivity loss. The major remaining uncertainty in the economic assessment is the indirect effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Integrating economic and environmental indicators in the assessment of desertification risk: A case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvati, L. [Piazza F. Morosini 12, Rome (Italy); Zitti, M.; Ceccarelli, T. [Ufficio Centrale di Ecologia Agraria, Rome (Italy)

    2008-09-30

    Desertification is a complex phenomenon which reduces the soil fertility involving ecological and economic processes that characterize the environment at different geographic scales. The most widely accepted definition of desertification is the one given by the United Nations Convention. It defines desertification as 'land degradation in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human actities'.Desertification involves many countries featuring different ecological, economic, and social conditions. In Mediterranean Europe, high human pressure, economic development, and climatic changes combine to produce land consumption, soil erosion, salinization, and fire risk, all considered as key factors to start desertification processes. For many years the term desertification has been strictly associated to geo-physical conditions, but in very complex ecosystems the study of the interaction of physical patterns with population and social characteristics is necessary to better delineate areas at risk. The aims of this paper are therefore (i) to review recent findings in term of desertification processes and risk assessment in the Mediterranean basin, (ii) to illustrate a simplified model in which social and economic variables may significantly accelerate land degradation leading to desertification, (iii) to suggest a set of demographic, economic, and institutional indicators suitable to contribute to the assessment of desertification risk in the Mediterranean basin, (iv) to built a synthetic index based on a multivariate approach and, finally, (v) to compare such index with a standard index of desertification risk only referring to geo-physical conditions. As a conclusion, new findings to be achieved in the context of human impact on environment as an original contribution to the study of desertification were delineated.

  18. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with

  19. Outage Risk Assessment and Management (ORAM) technology to improve outage safety and economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalra, S.P.

    2004-01-01

    The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has undertaken an aggressive program, called ORAM (Outage Risk Assessment and Management), to provide utilities with tools and technology to assist in managing risk during the planning and conduct of outages. The ORAM program consists of the following 6 steps: i) Perform utility surveys and visits on shutdown risk management needs, ii) Perform probabilistic shutdown safety assessments (PSSAs) to identify generic insights that can be incorporated into risk management guidelines and identify selected areas for the development of contingency actions, iii) Develop risk management guidelines (RMG's) that provide a systematic approach to the planning and conduct of outages from a safety perspective. Incorporate insights from the shutdown safety assessments and other operating experience into the RMG's. iv) Develop selected contingency actions including a thermalhydraulic tool kit to address higher risk time periods and activities identified in the shutdown safety assessments, v) Develop computer software that integrates all of the above capability into an easy to use tool for effective shutdown operation management for utilities, vi) Provide assistance in the transfer of this technology and the application of these tools. This paper briefly describes the technical approach and tools developed under EPRI's ORAM program and its applications for improving outage safety and economics. (author)

  20. The socio-economic dimension of flood risk assessment: insights of KULTURisk framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giupponi, Carlo; Gain, Animesh; Mojtahed, Vahid; Balbi, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    The approaches for vulnerability and risk assessment have found different and often contrasting solutions by various schools of thought. The two most prominent communities in this field are: climate change adaptation (CCA), and disaster risk reduction (DRR). Although those communities have usually in common the aim of reducing socio-economic vulnerability and risk to natural hazards, they have usually referred to different definitions and conceptualizations. For example, the DRR community has always driven more emphasis on the concept of risk and vulnerability is considered as a physical/environmental input for the quantification of risk, while the CCA research stream, mainly under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), considered vulnerability as an output deriving from social conditions and processes such as adaptation or maladaptation. Recently, with the publication of the IPCC Special Report on extreme events and disasters (IPCC-SREX), the notions of vulnerability and risk are somehow integrated in order to jointly consider both climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. The IPCC-SREX indeed is expected to significantly contribute to find common language and methodological approaches across disciplines and, therefore, the opportunity emerges for proposing new operational solutions, consistent with the most recent evolution of concepts and terminology. Based on the development of the IPCC Report, the KULTURisk project developed an operational framework to support integrated assessment and decision support through the combination of contributions from diverse disciplinary knowledge, with emphasis on the social and economic dimensions. KIRAF (KULTURisk Integrated Risk Assessment Framework) is specifically aimed at comprehensively evaluate the benefits of risk mitigation measures with consideration of the dynamic context deriving from the consideration of climatic changes and their effects on natural disasters, within the

  1. Underground Economics for Vulnerability Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Allodi, L.

    The estimation of vulnerability risk is at the core of any IT security management strategy. Among technical and infrastructural metrics of risk, attacker economics represent an emerging new aspect that several risk assessment methodologies propose to consider (e.g., based on game theory). Yet the

  2. Risk assessment and economic appraisal of protection methods for the Tarascon-Arles railway embankment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheetham Mark

    2016-01-01

    ., existing geotechnical conditions and the railway embankment structure were required to undertake the risk assessment. For each hydraulic loading scenario, a detailed economic appraisal was undertaken for each method of protection involving the evaluation of damages associated with disruption to train services and the associated costs to repair the structure. The final stage of the project involved integrating the economic assessment into a wider reaching multi-criteria analysis including indicators for train security, maintainability and environmental impact aspects. The multi-criteria approach was tested under two management strategies to evaluate the effectiveness of each embankment protection system. This paper outlines how the risk assessment, economic appraisal and management-strategy based multi-criteria approach resulted in a highly optimized system of embankment protection with significant gains in terms of both reduced cost of implementation and environmental enhancement whilst maintaining the high levels of railway security required by SNCF-RESEAU.

  3. Assessing social and economic effects of perceived risk: Workshop summary: Draft: BWIP Repository Project. [Basalt Waste Isolation Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nealey, S.M.; Liebow, E.B. (eds.)

    1988-03-01

    The US Department of Energy sponsored a one-day workshop to discuss the complex dimensions of risk judgment formation and the assessment of social and economic effects of risk perceptions related to the permanent underground storage of highly radioactive waste from commercial nuclear power plants. Affected parties have publicly expressed concerns about potentially significant risk-related effects of this approach to waste management. A selective review of relevant literature in psychology, decision analysis, economics, sociology, and anthropology was completed, along with an examination of decision analysis techniques that might assist in developing suitable responses to public risk-related concerns. The workshop was organized as a forum in which a set of distinguished experts could exchange ideas and observations about the problems of characterizing the effects of risk judgments. Out of the exchange emerged the issues or themes of problems with probabilistic risk assessment techniques are evident; differences exist in the way experts and laypersons view risk, and this leads to higher levels of public concern than experts feel are justified; experts, risk managers, and decision-makers sometimes err in assessing risk and in dealing with the public; credibility and trust are important contributing factors in the formation of risk judgments; social and economic consequences of perceived risk should be properly anticipated; improvements can be made in informing the public about risk; the role of the public in risk assessment, risk management and decisions about risk should be reconsidered; and mitigation and compensation are central to resolving conflicts arising from divergent risk judgments. 1 tab.

  4. Economic assessment of coal-fired and nuclear power generation in the year 2000 -Equal health hazard risk basis-

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seong, Ki Bong; Lee, Byong Whi

    1989-01-01

    On the basis of equal health hazard risk, economic assessment of nuclear was compared with that of coal for the expansion planning of electric power generation in the year 2000. In comparing health risks, the risk of coal was roughly ten times higher than that of nuclear according to various previous risk assessments of energy system. The zero risk condition can never be achievable. Therefore, only excess relative health risk of coal over nuclear was considered as social cost. The social cost of health risk was estimated by calculation of mortality and morbidity costs. Mortality cost was $250,000 and morbidity cost was $90,000 in the year 2000.(1986US$) Through Cost/Benefit Analysis, the optimal emission standards of coal-fired power generation were predicted. These were obtained at the point of least social cost for power generation. In the year 2000, the optimal emission standard of SO x was analyzed as 165ppm for coal-fired power plants in Korea. From this assessment, economic comparison of nuclear and coal in the year 2000 showed that nuclear would be more economical than coal, whereas uncertainty of future power generation cost of nuclear would be larger than that of coal. (Author)

  5. Productive, economic and risk assessment of grazing dairy systems with supplemented cows milked once a day.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazzarini, B; Lopez-Villalobos, N; Lyons, N; Hendrikse, L; Baudracco, J

    2018-05-01

    Milking cows once a day (OAD) is a herd management practice that may help to reduce working effort and labour demand in dairy farms. However, a decrease in milk yield per cow occurs in OAD systems compared with twice a day (TAD) systems and this may affect profitability of dairy systems. The objective of this study was to assess productive and economic impact and risk of reducing milking frequency from TAD to OAD for grazing dairy systems, using a whole-farm model. Five scenarios were evaluated by deterministic and stochastic simulations: one scenario under TAD milking (TADAR) and four scenarios under OAD milking. The OAD scenarios assumed that milk yield per cow decreased by 30% (OAD30), 24% (OAD24), 19% (OAD19) and 10% (OAD10), compared with TADAR scenario, based on experimental and commercial farms data. Stocking rate (SR) was increased in all OAD scenarios compared to TADAR and two levels of reduction in labour cost were tested, namely 15% and 30%. Milk and concentrate feeds prices, and pasture and crop yields, were allowed to behave stochastically to account for market and climate variations, respectively, to perform risk analyses. Scenario OAD10 showed similar milk yield per ha compared with TADAR, as the increased SR compensated for the reduction in milk yield per cow. For scenarios OAD30, OAD24 and OAD19 the greater number of cows per ha partially compensated for the reduction of milk yield per cow and milk yield per ha decreased 21%, 15% and 10%, respectively, compared with TADAR. Farm operating profit per ha per year also decreased in all OAD scenarios compared with TADAR, and were US$684, US$161, US$ 303, US$424 and US$598 for TADAR, OAD30, OAD24, OAD19, OAD10, respectively, when labour cost was reduced 15% in OAD scenarios. When labour cost was reduced 30% in OAD scenarios, only OAD10 showed higher profit (US$706) than TADAR. Stochastic simulations showed that exposure to risk would be higher in OAD scenarios compared with TADAR. Results showed that OAD

  6. Economic Risk Assessment of Early Stage Designs for Glycerol2Valorization in Biorefinery Concepts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Loureiro da Costa Lira Gargalo, Carina; Cheali, Peam; Posada, John A.

    2016-01-01

    , and discount rate, among others, have high impact on the project’s profitability analysis. Therefore, the profitability was tested under uncertainties by using NPV and MSP as economic metrics. The robust ranking of solutions is presented with respect to minimum economic risk of the project being nonprofitable...... (failure to achieve a positive NPV times the consequential profit loss). It was found that the best potential options for glycerol valorization is through the production of either (i) lactic acid (9 MM$ with 63% probability of failure to achieve a positive NPV); (ii) succinic acid (14 MM$ with 76......%); or finally, (iii) 1,2-propanediol (16 MM$ with 68%). As a risk reduction strategy, a multiproduct biorefinery is suggested which is capable of switching between the production of lactic acid and succinic acid. This solution comes with increased capital investment; however, it leads to more robust NPV...

  7. Using risk analysis in Health Impact Assessment: the impact of different relative risks for men and women in different socio-economic groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilunger, Louise; Diderichsen, Finn; Burström, Bo

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this study is to contribute to the emerging field of quantification of Health Impact Assessment (HIA), by analysing how different relative risks affect the burden of disease for various socio-economic groups (SES). Risk analysis, utilising attributable and impact fraction, raises several...... methodological considerations. The present study illustrates this by measuring the impact of changed distribution levels of smoking on lung cancer, ischemic heart disease (IHD), chronic obstructive lung disorder (COLD) and stroke for the highest and lowest socio-economic groups measured in disability adjusted...... the highest and lowest socio-economic groups may decrease by 75% or increase by 21% depending on the size of the relative risk. Assuming the same smoking prevalence for the lowest socio-economic group as for the highest (impact fraction), then the inequality may decrease by 7-26%. Consequently, the size...

  8. Ecological Risk Assessment of Land Use Change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Hualin; Wang, Peng; Huang, Hongsheng

    2013-01-01

    Land use/land cover change has been attracting increasing attention in the field of global environmental change research because of its role in the social and ecological environment. To explore the ecological risk characteristics of land use change in the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone of China, an eco-risk index was established in this study by the combination of a landscape disturbance index with a landscape fragmentation index. Spatial distribution and gradient difference of land use eco-risk are analyzed by using the methods of spatial autocorrelation and semivariance. Results show that ecological risk in the study area has a positive correlation, and there is a decreasing trend with the increase of grain size both in 1995 and 2005. Because the area of high eco-risk value increased from 1995 to 2005, eco-environment quality declined slightly in the study area. There are distinct spatial changes in the concentrated areas with high land use eco-risk values from 1995 to 2005. The step length of spatial separation of land use eco-risk is comparatively long—58 km in 1995 and 11 km in 2005—respectively. There are still nonstructural factors affecting the quality of the regional ecological environment at some small-scales. Our research results can provide some useful information for land eco-management, eco-environmental harnessing and restoration. In the future, some measures should be put forward in the regions with high eco-risk value, which include strengthening land use management, avoiding unreasonable types of land use and reducing the degree of fragmentation and separation. PMID:23343986

  9. Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

  10. Interest of comparative risk assessment in economic development and proposals on a regional level: a practical example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouville, A.; Coulon, R.; Aigueperse, J.

    1983-01-01

    As major human activities develop, those responsible for orienting these activities and making decisions must take more and more account, notably due to pressure from the public, of risks likely to arise, together with other elements of choice such as technical, economic, social and political considerations. It is therefore essential to make an objective assessment of these risks to which individual are exposed naturally or because of their life styles. Because most decisions are made on a regional level and because it is also at this level that can be realistically defined the environmental characteristics, the way of life and the economic and social structure which determine the risks to which the regional population is exposed, it is on this scale that a comparative assessment is of maximum value. This assessment should be as exhaustive as possible and should take into account all the risks whether natural or artificial, and from whatever source (industrial, domestic, medical, etc.). It should take into account successively the exposure to various hazards, and the resulting consequences to health based on the choice of appropriate indicators and on available knowledge of exposure-effects relationships. Subjective aspects of risk perception should also be considered. A study program has been begun covering the region called the ''Grand Delta'' which includes the Rhone valley and its banks to the mediterraneen coast in the South East part of France [fr

  11. Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-06-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed

  12. An economic assessment of tropical cyclone risk on offshore wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Lixuan; Möller, Bernd

    2012-01-01

    and cost and setting design parameters for offshore wind turbines are then discussed. The impact of tropical cyclones on offshore wind farms likes a double-edged sword, which might be advantageous for some regions in terms of increasing full-loaded hours of turbines, but also disadvantageous for others due....... A probabilistic tropical cyclone event model is applied to evaluate 20-year, 30-year, 50-year and 100-year recurrence of extreme wind speeds by geographical location. Combining a damage model derived from empirical loss data and an investment cost model within a Geographical Information System (GIS), the annual...... to its destructive effects. However, specific design standards and insurance of turbines would help reduce risks and economic losses of offshore wind farms in tropical cyclone-prone areas and expand exploitable locations for future offshore wind farms....

  13. Prognostic Health Monitoring System: Component Selection Based on Risk Criteria and Economic Benefit Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pham, Binh T.; Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy J.; Tawfik, Magdy S.

    2012-01-01

    Prognostic health monitoring (PHM) is a proactive approach to monitor the ability of structures, systems, and components (SSCs) to withstand structural, thermal, and chemical loadings over the SSCs planned service lifespan. The current efforts to extend the operational license lifetime of the aging fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants from 40 to 60 years and beyond can benefit from a systematic application of PHM technology. Implementing a PHM system would strengthen the safety of nuclear power plants, reduce plant outage time, and reduce operation and maintenance costs. However, a nuclear power plant has thousands of SSCs, so implementing a PHM system that covers all SSCs requires careful planning and prioritization. This paper therefore focuses on a component selection that is based on the analysis of a component's failure probability, risk, and cost. Ultimately, the decision on component selection depends on the overall economical benefits arising from safety and operational considerations associated with implementing the PHM system. (author)

  14. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinchin, G.H.

    1983-01-01

    After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

  15. Economic assessment of landslide risks in the Swabian Alb, Germany ‒ research framework and first results of homeowners' and experts' surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Blöchl

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Landslide risks are frequently underestimated by political and economic actors as well as by the local population. The InterRisk Assess research project is working to develop a systematic approach to the analysis and evaluation of economic landslide risks at a local and regional scale. Its major aims are to determine the extent of potential damage and economic losses caused by landslides, to analyze individual and collective patterns of risk assessment and to develop recommendations for pro-active risk management. The research methodology includes GIS-based risk analyses and interviews with relevant actors in politics, administration and planning, private households and land owners. The research findings will facilitate a better-informed, efficient and sustainable use of natural resources and natural risks. The research project also aims to contribute to methodological progress in risk research.

  16. Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hrdová, Edita

    2012-01-01

    This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

  17. Risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

    2010-01-01

    International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

  18. Assessing the Risk Relevance of Accounting Variables in Diverse Economic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brimble, M.; Hodgson, A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the association between accounting information and systematic (beta) risk. We extend previous research by using an updated data set, a range of risk measures that adjust for different market and time-varying conditions, and by examining whether the long-run association has

  19. Workshop: Economic Valuation of Mortality Risk Reduction: Assessing the State of the Art for Policy Applications (2002)

    Science.gov (United States)

    This two-day workshop, co-sponsored by EPA's National Center for Environmental Economics and National Center for Environmental Research, was dedicated to exploring methods for valuing mortality risk reductions. There were six sessions held in total.

  20. Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

    2017-12-01

    Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development

  1. Problem-Based Teaching in International Management: A Political/Economic Risk Assessment Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Paula S.; White, Marion M.; Zisk, Daniel S.; Cavazos, David E.

    2013-01-01

    This article draws from the current literature to examine problem-based learning (PBL) as a management education tool, and provides an example of how to incorporate PBL into an undergraduate international management course. Also included are an explanation of, and specific guidelines for, a PBL exercise focused on the analysis of "country risk"…

  2. Managing Air Quality - Human Health, Environmental and Economic Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Human health and environmental assessments characterize health and environmental risks associated with exposure to pollution. Economic assessments evaluate the cost and economic impact of a policy or regulation & can estimate economic benefits.

  3. Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The report is in sections, entitled: preface; summary and conclusions; introduction (historical and organizational); estimating engineering risks (techniques of risk estimation and forms of expression of risk); laboratory experiments for estimation of biological risks; estimation of risk from observations on man (travel, medical procedures; occupations; sport); the perception of risks; (as an example of attitudes towards a single hazard, studies of nuclear power are considered among other topics in this section); risk management (estimation; perception; acceptability, analysis of risk, costs and benefits; safety standards; decision-making process; possible guidelines). (U.K.)

  4. How does economic risk aversion affect biodiversity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouysset, L; Doyen, L; Jiguet, F

    2013-01-01

    Significant decline of biodiversity in farmlands has been reported for several decades. To limit the negative impact of agriculture, many agro-environmental schemes have been implemented, but their effectiveness remains controversial. In this context, the study of economic drivers is helpful to understand the role played by farming on biodiversity. The present paper analyzes the impact of risk aversion on farmland biodiversity. Here "risk aversion" means a cautious behavior of farmers facing uncertainty. We develop a bio-economic model that articulates bird community dynamics and representative farmers selecting land uses within an uncertain macro-economic context. It is specialized and calibrated at a regional scale for France through national databases. The influence of risk aversion is assessed on ecological, agricultural, and economic outputs through projections at the 2050 horizon. A high enough risk aversion appears sufficient to both manage economic risk and promote ecological performance. This occurs through a diversification mechanism on regional land uses. However, economic calibration leads to a weak risk-aversion parameter, which is consistent with the current decline of farmland birds. Spatial disparities however suggest that public incentives could be necessary to reinforce the diversification and bio-economic effectiveness.

  5. The spatial and temporal `cost' of volcanic eruptions: assessing economic impact, business inoperability, and spatial distribution of risk in the Auckland region, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Garry W.; Smith, Nicola J.; Kim, Joon-hwan; Cronin, Shane J.; Proctor, Jon N.

    2017-07-01

    Volcanic risk assessment has historically concentrated on quantifying the frequency, magnitude, and potential diversity of physical processes of eruptions and their consequent impacts on life and property. A realistic socio-economic assessment of volcanic impact must however take into account dynamic properties of businesses and extend beyond only measuring direct infrastructure/property loss. The inoperability input-output model, heralded as one of the 10 most important accomplishments in risk analysis over the last 30 years (Kujawaski Syst Eng. 9:281-295, 2006), has become prominent over the last decade in the economic impact assessment of business disruptions. We develop a dynamic inoperability input-output model to assess the economic impacts of a hypothetical volcanic event occurring at each of 7270 unique spatial locations throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. This field of at least 53 volcanoes underlies the country's largest urban area, the Auckland region, which is home to 1.4 million people and responsible for 35.3% (NZ201481.2 billion) of the nation's GDP (Statistics New Zealand 2015). We apply volcanic event characteristics for a small-medium-scale volcanic eruption scenario and assess the economic impacts of an `average' eruption in the Auckland region. Economic losses are quantified both with, and without, business mitigation and intervention responses in place. We combine this information with a recent spatial hazard probability map (Bebbington and Cronin Bull Volcanol. 73(1):55-72, 2011) to produce novel spatial economic activity `at risk' maps. Our approach demonstrates how business inoperability losses sit alongside potential life and property damage assessment in enhancing our understanding of volcanic risk mitigation.

  6. Managing economic risks through simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffin, B.J.; Eresman, R.K.

    1994-01-01

    Industrial operations are commonly managed in terms of such factors as raw material requirements, throughput, equipment reliability, and operator productivity. Simulation can be used to transform standard management performance measures into probabilistic measures which define the associated risks. These results provide valuable insight for effective management of economic risks. Case studies are presented using the Monte Carlo simulation method to demonstrate different applications of simulation techniques, various result formats, and their use for optimizing economic returns. In the first case study, design criteria for a large gas distribution system originally developed from worst-case demand estimates were modelled to provide a risk basis for decisions on alternative upgrading options. In the second, a commercial gas storage facility operation was modelled to develop economic marketing strategies balancing supply and demand requirements from multiple clients. 3 refs

  7. GAR Global Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

  8. Economic inequality increases risk taking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, B Keith; Brown-Iannuzzi, Jazmin L; Hannay, Jason W

    2017-05-02

    Rising income inequality is a global trend. Increased income inequality has been associated with higher rates of crime, greater consumer debt, and poorer health outcomes. The mechanisms linking inequality to poor outcomes among individuals are poorly understood. This research tested a behavioral account linking inequality to individual decision making. In three experiments ( n = 811), we found that higher inequality in the outcomes of an economic game led participants to take greater risks to try to achieve higher outcomes. This effect of unequal distributions on risk taking was driven by upward social comparisons. Next, we estimated economic risk taking in daily life using large-scale data from internet searches. Risk taking was higher in states with greater income inequality, an effect driven by inequality at the upper end of the income distribution. Results suggest that inequality may promote poor outcomes, in part, by increasing risky behavior.

  9. Risk assessments ensure safer power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-02-19

    A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

  10. Introduction to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raina, V.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

  11. [Ecological risk assessment of human activity of rapid economic development regions in southern Jiangsu, China: a case study of Dantu District of Zhenjiang City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Guang-Ling; Xiang, Bao; Wang, Bao-Liang; Jin, Xia; Hu, Yu; Zhang, Li-Kun

    2014-04-01

    This article investigated the spatiotemporal variation of landscape ecological risk in Dantu District of Zhenjiang City with statistical method based on the ETM remote sensing data in 2000 and 2005, and the TM remote sensing data in 2010, and quantitative index of regional ecological risk assessment was established with the employment of landscape index, so as to enhance the ecosystem management, prevent and reduce the regional ecological risk in southern Jiangsu with rapid economic development. The results showed that the fragmentations, divergence, and ecological losses of natural landscape types, such as forestland, wetland, waters, etc., were deteriorated with the expansion of built-up lands from 2000 to 2010. The higher ecological risk zone took up 5.7%, 9.0%, and 10.2% of the whole region in 2000, 2005, and 2010, respectively, which mainly distributed in the plain hilly region. During the study period, the area aggravating to the higher ecological risk zone was approximately 296.2 km2, 48% of the whole region. The ecological risk rose up in most of the region. The interference of rapid economic development to landscape patterns was even more intensive, with obvious spatial differences in ecological risk distribution. The measures of exploiting resources near the port, utilizing natural wetlands, constructing industrial parks, and rapid urbanization, etc., intensified the ecological risk and accelerated the conversion rate. Prompt strategies should be established to manage the ecological risk of this region.

  12. Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

  13. Participatory Approach to Long-Term Socio-Economic Scenarios as Building Block of a Local Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool - The Case Study Lienz (East-Tyrol)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Ina; Eder, Brigitte; Hama, Michiko; Leitner, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- or hazard-specific and rarely in a systemic, dynamic and scenario-based manner. In addition, socio-economic trends are often neglected in local vulnerability and risk assessments although they represent potential key determinants of risk and vulnerability. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) aims at filling this gap by applying a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario building as building block of a local vulnerability assessment and risk management tool. Overall, ARISE aims at developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level using Lienz in the East-Tyrol as a test-site City. One central building block is participatory socio-economic scenario building that - together with regionalized climate change scenarios - form a centrepiece in the process-oriented assessment of climate change risks and vulnerability. Major vulnerabilities and risks may stem from the economic performance, the socio-economic or socio-demographic developments or changes in asset exposition and not from climate change impacts themselves. The IPCC 5th assessment report underlines this and states that for most economic sectors, the impact of climate change may be small relative to the impacts of other driving forces such as changes in population growth, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance and many other factors in the socio-economy (Arent et al., 2014). The paper presents the methodology, process and results with respect to the building of long-term local socio-economic scenarios for the City of Lienz and the surrounding countryside. Scenarios were developed in a participatory approach using a scenario workshop that involved major stakeholders from the region. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as

  14. Presenting of a material exposure health risk assessment model in Oil and Gas Industries (case study: Pars Economic and Energy Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Heydari

    2014-02-01

    Result and Conclusion: The results revealed that the quantitative amount of consequence, probability and exposure was 83.2, 8.45, and 2.2, respectively. Generally, the chemical exposure risk number was 1546 which shows that reforming plans are in highly priorities from an economical point of view. William-fine method has the benefit of an accurate chemical exposure by combination of effect severity, exposure probability and detriment rate, and also minimization of personal judgments during the assessment.

  15. System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

    2013-05-15

    Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global drought total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross Domestic...

  17. Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Landslide Total Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of global landslide total economic loss risks. A process of spatially allocating Gross...

  18. THE ECONOMIC RISK IN TRADING COMPANIES’ VALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mircea Muntean

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The negative influence of internal and external factors on the enterprise’s operating activity may lead to the realization of losses and economic-financial imbalance of the enterprise. Such situation leads to the economic risk, which can be avoided by diagnosis analysis. The manifestation of the economic risk has repercussions in: obtaining profit from operating activities, the maximization of the enterprise’s value and the increase of the market share. The operational risk can be detected by the method of forecast analysis “cost-volume-profit” or via coefficient of lever exploitation. This paper aims, on the basis of the information of a commerce company, to reveal the influence of risk in assessing the enterprise, as well as the possibilities to maximize its value and the increase in economic and financial performance in a competitive environment. The results of the research demonstrate the impact of the circulating expenditure structure on the enterprise’s financial results, as well as on equity.

  19. Concerning ethical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boeckle, F.

    1991-01-01

    After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de

  20. CALCULATING ECONOMIC RISK AFTER HANFORD CLEANUP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, Michael J.

    2003-01-01

    Since late 1997, researchers at the Hanford Site have been engaged in the Groundwater Protection Project (formerly, the Groundwater/Vadose Zone Project), developing a suite of integrated physical and environmental models and supporting data to trace the complex path of Hanford legacy contaminants through the environment for the next thousand years, and to estimate corresponding environmental, human health, economic, and cultural risks. The linked set of models and data is called the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The risk mechanism for economics consists of ''impact triggers'' (sequences of physical and human behavior changes in response to, or resulting from, human health or ecological risks), and processes by which particular trigger mechanisms induce impacts. Economic impacts stimulated by the trigger mechanisms may take a variety of forms, including changes in either costs or revenues for economic sectors associated with the affected resource or activity. An existing local economic impact model was adapted to calculate the resulting impacts on output, employment, and labor income in the local economy (the Tri-Cities Economic Risk Model or TCERM). The SAC researchers ran a test suite of 25 realization scenarios for future contamination of the Columbia River after site closure for a small subset of the radionuclides and hazardous chemicals known to be present in the environment at the Hanford Site. These scenarios of potential future river contamination were analyzed in TCERM. Although the TCERM model is sensitive to river contamination under a reasonable set of assumptions concerning reactions of the authorities and the public, the scenarios show low enough future contamination that the impacts on the local economy are small

  1. CALCULATING ECONOMIC RISK AFTER HANFORD CLEANUP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, M.J.

    2003-02-27

    Since late 1997, researchers at the Hanford Site have been engaged in the Groundwater Protection Project (formerly, the Groundwater/Vadose Zone Project), developing a suite of integrated physical and environmental models and supporting data to trace the complex path of Hanford legacy contaminants through the environment for the next thousand years, and to estimate corresponding environmental, human health, economic, and cultural risks. The linked set of models and data is called the System Assessment Capability (SAC). The risk mechanism for economics consists of ''impact triggers'' (sequences of physical and human behavior changes in response to, or resulting from, human health or ecological risks), and processes by which particular trigger mechanisms induce impacts. Economic impacts stimulated by the trigger mechanisms may take a variety of forms, including changes in either costs or revenues for economic sectors associated with the affected resource or activity. An existing local economic impact model was adapted to calculate the resulting impacts on output, employment, and labor income in the local economy (the Tri-Cities Economic Risk Model or TCERM). The SAC researchers ran a test suite of 25 realization scenarios for future contamination of the Columbia River after site closure for a small subset of the radionuclides and hazardous chemicals known to be present in the environment at the Hanford Site. These scenarios of potential future river contamination were analyzed in TCERM. Although the TCERM model is sensitive to river contamination under a reasonable set of assumptions concerning reactions of the authorities and the public, the scenarios show low enough future contamination that the impacts on the local economy are small.

  2. What's to Be Done About Laboratory Quality? Process Indicators, Laboratory Stewardship, the Outcomes Problem, Risk Assessment, and Economic Value: Responding to Contemporary Global Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Frederick A; Badrick, Tony C; Sikaris, Kenneth A

    2018-02-17

    For 50 years, structure, process, and outcomes measures have assessed health care quality. For clinical laboratories, structural quality has generally been assessed by inspection. For assessing process, quality indicators (QIs), statistical monitors of steps in the clinical laboratory total testing, have proliferated across the globe. Connections between structural and process laboratory measures and patient outcomes, however, have rarely been demonstrated. To inform further development of clinical laboratory quality systems, we conducted a selective but worldwide review of publications on clinical laboratory quality assessment. Some QIs, like seven generic College of American Pathologists Q-Tracks monitors, have demonstrated significant process improvement; other measures have uncovered critical opportunities to improve test selection and result management. The College of Pathologists of Australasia Key Indicator Monitoring and Management System has deployed risk calculations, introduced from failure mode effects analysis, as surrogate measures for outcomes. Showing economic value from clinical laboratory testing quality is a challenge. Clinical laboratories should converge on fewer (7-14) rather than more (21-35) process monitors; monitors should cover all steps of the testing process under laboratory control and include especially high-risk specimen-quality QIs. Clinical laboratory stewardship, the combination of education interventions among clinician test orderers and report consumers with revision of test order formats and result reporting schemes, improves test ordering, but improving result reception is more difficult. Risk calculation reorders the importance of quality monitors by balancing three probabilities: defect frequency, weight of potential harm, and detection difficulty. The triple approach of (1) a more focused suite of generic consensus quality indicators, (2) more active clinical laboratory testing stewardship, and (3) integration of formal

  3. Economic assessment of sterifeed process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mat Rasol Awang; Hassan Hamdani Mutaat

    2004-01-01

    The economics of a processing technology depends on its cost. Two types of costs commonly used in the estimation are a fixed cost and the other is variable cost. The cost structure that included in the fixed cost, mainly, the cost of land, building and machineries, and the variable cost covers raw materials, salary / wages, utilities, irradiation charge, other miscellaneous expenses and contingencies. The assessment were made by treating the economic data using discounted cash flow projection method to deduce the economic indicators: Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Benefit to Cost (B/C) ratio, that would suggest the project feasibility, either feasible or otherwise. The NPV, IRR, B/C deduced from Sterifeed Process showed the economic of this technology was infeasible due high cost incurred in transportation, labour as well as the cost of machinery. This is accomplished by sensitivity test performed on these cost components. However, cost structure derived from Sterifeed Plant serves as a model cost structure for economic assessment in production of Sterifeed, a fermented ruminant feed, and to work further on the economic of the project. This paper discuss economic evaluation of Sterifeed process in different scenarios that carried out in the Sterifeed process operations and deduction were made to derive a model production unit for commercialisation. (Author)

  4. Two-scale evaluation of remediation technologies for a contaminated site by applying economic input-output life cycle assessment: risk-cost, risk-energy consumption and risk-CO2 emission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Yasushi; Katayama, Arata

    2011-09-15

    A two-scale evaluation concept of remediation technologies for a contaminated site was expanded by introducing life cycle costing (LCC) and economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA). The expanded evaluation index, the rescue number for soil (RN(SOIL)) with LCC and EIO-LCA, comprises two scales, such as risk-cost, risk-energy consumption or risk-CO(2) emission of a remediation. The effectiveness of RN(SOIL) with LCC and EIO-LCA was examined in a typical contamination and remediation scenario in which dieldrin contaminated an agricultural field. Remediation was simulated using four technologies: disposal, high temperature thermal desorption, biopile and landfarming. Energy consumption and CO(2) emission were determined from a life cycle inventory analysis using monetary-based intensity based on an input-output table. The values of RN(SOIL) based on risk-cost, risk-energy consumption and risk-CO(2) emission were calculated, and then rankings of the candidates were compiled according to RN(SOIL) values. A comparison between three rankings showed the different ranking orders. The existence of differences in ranking order indicates that the scales would not have reciprocal compatibility for two-scale evaluation and that each scale should be used independently. The RN(SOIL) with LCA will be helpful in selecting a technology, provided an appropriate scale is determined. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Hepatitis Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

  6. Geologic coal assessment: The interface with economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.

    2001-01-01

    Geologic resource assessments describe the location, general characteristics, and estimated volumes of resources, whether in situ or technically recoverable. Such compilations are only an initial step in economic resource evaluation. This paper identifies, by examples from the Illinois and Appalachian basins, the salient features of a geologic assessment that assure its usefulness to downstream economic analysis. Assessments should be in sufficient detail to allocate resources to production units (mines or wells). Coal assessments should include the spatial distribution of coal bed characteristics and the ability to allocate parts of the resource to specific mining technologies. For coal bed gas assessment, the production well recoveries and well deliverability characteristics must be preserved and the risk structure should be specified so dryholes and noncommercial well costs are recovered by commercially successful wells. ?? 2001 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  7. Dutch Risk Assessment tools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Venema, A.

    2015-01-01

    The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

  8. Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Drought Proportional Economic Loss Risk Deciles is a 2.5 minute grid of drought hazard economic loss as proportions of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per...

  9. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  10. Integrated assessment of socio-economic risks of dangerous hydrological phenomena in Russian coastal zones of the Baltic, the Azov and the Black Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemtsov, Stepan; Baburin, Vyacheslav; Goryachko, Mariya; Krylenko, Inna; Yumina, Natalya

    2013-04-01

    according to UNU-EHS methodology: 'exposure' and 'vulnerability', consisting of 'susceptibility', 'coping capacity' and 'adaptive capacity'. Relevant indicators for each block were selected and verified by statistical methods. The authors estimated the share of people potentially exposed to flooding with the help of geographic information system. The authors, using the technique of World Risk Index (2011), calculated sub-indices for each block, and made the maps. Areas with the highest socio-economic risks were identified on the Azov and the Black sea coast: Slavyansky, Krymsky, Krasnoarmeysky, Temryuksky and Primorsko-Akhtarsky municipal districts. On the third stage, the main purpose was to integrate and use both approaches in evaluation of socio-economic risks on micro-geographical level for different categories of the population and different industries (agriculture, utilities, etc.), using 'field' data. Field study was conducted in Slavyansky municipal district of Krasnodar region and included opinion polls, special interviews with businessmen and authorities, collection of municipal statistics and data from companies, etc. Vulnerability maps, speed evacuation maps, maps of possible locations of warning systems and maps of high insurance risks were developed. Proposals for improvement of legislation for coastal zones were prepared. The conducted research has shown the importance of both social ('vulnerability'), and economic ('damage') components of risk assessment. Using the previously discussed methods individually does not bring desired results because of deficiencies of Russian statistics. It is essential for accurate risk assessment to use an 'ensemble' of methods (statistical, field observations, etc.) on micro geographic level. The work has a practical importance for improving safety of local communities.

  11. Invasive alien species in the food chain: Advancing risk assessment models to address climate change, economics and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darren J. Kriticos; Robert C. Venette; Richard H.A. Baker; Sarah Brunel; Frank H. Koch; Trond Rafoss; Wopke van der Werf; Susan P. Worner

    2013-01-01

    Economic globalization depends on the movement of people and goods between countries. As these exchanges increase, so does the potential for translocation of harmful pests, weeds, and pathogens capable of impacting our crops, livestock and natural resources (Hulme 2009), with concomitant impacts on global food security (Cook et al. 2011).

  12. The political economy of trans-Pakistan gas pipeline project: assessing the political and economic risks for India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandian, S.

    2005-01-01

    There is a growing realisation among Indian policy makers to consider the import of natural gas to address India's growing energy demand. Among many policy options to import natural gas, Indo-Iran overland pipeline option is considered to be effective and economical in addressing India's long-term energy demands. Such a pipeline would have to traverse Pakistani territory thereby necessitating a role for Pakistan in the pipeline project. Though security guarantees have been offered, India refuses to entertain the role of Pakistan in the project for a fear of its energy supply being disrupted in case of a military conflict with Pakistan. This paper argues that gas pipeline project is not only aimed at addressing India's energy concerns but also to further its strategic objectives. This paper contends that India, Iran and Pakistan do not have shared objective to make the overland project a political and commercial reality. India's stakes in the overland pipeline project are high as India's economic interests in the pipeline project are not in congruence with the politico-economic and strategic objectives of Iran and Pakistan. (author)

  13. Assessing the Roles of Regional Climate Uncertainty, Policy, and Economics on Future Risks to Water Stress: A Large-Ensemble Pilot Case for Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K. M.; Gao, X.; Fant, C. W.; Blanc, E.; Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Paltsev, S.; Arndt, C.; Prinn, R. G.; Reilly, J. M.; Jacoby, H.

    2013-12-01

    The fate of natural and managed water resources is controlled to varying degrees by interlinked energy, agricultural, and environmental systems, as well as the hydro-climate cycles. The need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to regional change calls for likelihood quantification of outcomes via the representation of uncertainty - to the fullest extent possible. A hybrid approach of the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework provides probabilistic projections of regional climate change - generated in tandem with consistent socio-economic projections. A Water Resources System (WRS) then tracks water allocation and availability across these competing demands. As such, the IGSM-WRS is an integrated tool that provides quantitative insights on the risks and sustainability of water resources over large river basins. This pilot project focuses the IGSM-WRS on Southeast Asia (Figure 1). This region presents exceptional challenges toward sustainable water resources given its texture of basins that traverse and interconnect developing nations as well as large, ascending economies and populations - such as China and India. We employ the IGSM-WRS in a large ensemble of outcomes spanning hydro-climatic, economic, and policy uncertainties. For computational efficiency, a Gaussian Quadrature procedure sub-samples these outcomes (Figure 2). The IGSM-WRS impacts are quantified through frequency distributions of water stress changes. The results allow for interpretation of: the effects of policy measures; impacts on food production; and the value of design flexibility of infrastructure/institutions. An area of model development and exploration is the feedback of water-stress shocks to economic activity (i.e. GDP and land use). We discuss these further results (where possible) as well as other efforts to refine: uncertainty methods, greater basin-level and climate detail, and process-level representation glacial melt-water sources. Figure 1 Figure 2

  14. Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2010-10-01

    Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

  15. GM Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, Penny A. C.

    GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

  16. Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

    2017-04-01

    The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

  17. Baseline development, economic risk, and schedule risk: An integrated approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonkinson, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    The economic and schedule risks of Environmental Restoration (ER) projects are commonly analyzed toward the end of the baseline development process. Risk analysis is usually performed as the final element of the scheduling or estimating processes for the purpose of establishing cost and schedule contingency. However, there is an opportunity for earlier assessment of risks, during development of the technical scope and Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Integrating the processes of risk management and baselining provides for early incorporation of feedback regarding schedule and cost risk into the proposed scope of work. Much of the information necessary to perform risk analysis becomes available during development of the technical baseline, as the scope of work and WBS are being defined. The analysis of risk can actually be initiated early on during development of the technical baseline and continue throughout development of the complete project baseline. Indeed, best business practices suggest that information crucial to the success of a project be analyzed and incorporated into project planning as soon as it is available and usable

  18. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC RISK IN EUROPEAN INVESTMENT PROJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margareta Stela FLORESCU

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Risk is a reality of the economic environment, with consequences which cannot always be foreseen or anticipated. Risk management becomes more stringent as potential exo/endogenous vulnerability factors are rapidly increasing. Identifying risk areas, structuring risk factors and defining their probability, optimal management of resources in order to reduce risk factors, creating alternatives for each high-probability risk factor are part of project risk management. Risk is quantified through probability and incidence and is assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods.

  19. The Break - Even Point and the Leverage Effect – Instruments for Assessing the Economic and Financial Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Constandache

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The establishing by any company, depending on the domain of activity, of anminimumobjective to be attained, so that the business should become profitable, is the aim principle of thisarticle. In order to attain this goal, the assumed risk is considered, which implies the use of certainassessing instruments, as the break-evenpoint and the leverage effect. This approach stands for asignificant step in making strategic decisions, being a way to evaluating company security in case inwhich market conditions become unfavourable.

  20. Strategic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

  1. Ecological risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Suter, Glenn W; Barnthouse, L. W. (Lawrence W)

    2007-01-01

    Ecological risk assessment is commonly applied to the regulation of chemicals, the remediation of contaminated sites, the monitoring of importation of exotic organisms, the management of watersheds...

  2. Risk Assessment Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

  3. Preliminary Economic Assessment of KALIMER-600

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Kee-Hwan; Kim, Seung-Su; Hahn, Do-Hee

    2008-01-01

    The GIF(GEN IV International Forum) established an Economic Modelling Working Group(EMWG) in 2003 to create economic models and guidelines to facilitate in a future evaluation of the Generation IV nuclear energy systems and assess progress toward the GIF economic goals. These goals are to have a life cycle cost advantage over other energy sources, and to have a level of financial risk comparable to other energy projects. To do this, EMWG has been developed the G4-ECONS model, which is a generic EXCEL-based model for computation of the projected levelized unit electricity cost and/or levelized non-electricity unit product cost from GEN IV energy systems. KALIMER-600 has been developed as a new design concept based on the KALIMER-150 design. KALIMER-600 is a unique design concept which has a potential to achieve GEN IV technology goals even though there is a room for a design improvement in order to make the KALIMER-600 more competitive with future generation reactors. The objective of this study is to the assess economics of KALIMER-600 by using the G4-ECONS model

  4. Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

    2010-10-01

    Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

  5. Offshore risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Vinnem, Jan-Erik

    2014-01-01

      Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

  6. Health economic assessment: a methodological primer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoens, Steven

    2009-12-01

    This review article aims to provide an introduction to the methodology of health economic assessment of a health technology. Attention is paid to defining the fundamental concepts and terms that are relevant to health economic assessments. The article describes the methodology underlying a cost study (identification, measurement and valuation of resource use, calculation of costs), an economic evaluation (type of economic evaluation, the cost-effectiveness plane, trial- and model-based economic evaluation, discounting, sensitivity analysis, incremental analysis), and a budget impact analysis. Key references are provided for those readers who wish a more advanced understanding of health economic assessments.

  7. Health Economic Assessment: A Methodological Primer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Simoens

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available This review article aims to provide an introduction to the methodology of health economic assessment of a health technology. Attention is paid to defining the fundamental concepts and terms that are relevant to health economic assessments. The article describes the methodology underlying a cost study (identification, measurement and valuation of resource use, calculation of costs, an economic evaluation (type of economic evaluation, the cost-effectiveness plane, trial- and model-based economic evaluation, discounting, sensitivity analysis, incremental analysis, and a budget impact analysis. Key references are provided for those readers who wish a more advanced understanding of health economic assessments.

  8. Economic Exposure and Integrated Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Miller, Kent D.

    1994-01-01

    Most corporate risk management research focuses on particular risk exposures to the exclusion of other interrelated exposures. By contrast, this study models corporate risk exposures using a multivariate approach integrating the distinct exposures of interest to finance and strategy researchers. The paper addresses the implications of multivariate modeling for corporate risk management, some key methodological issues arising in empirical estimation of corporate economic exposrues, and direc...

  9. Quantifying the economic risks of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the value of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions matters for policy decisions and climate risk management, but quantification is challenging because of the complex interactions and uncertainties in the Earth and human systems, as well as normative ethical considerations. Current modelling approaches use damage functions to parameterize a simplified relationship between climate variables, such as temperature change, and economic losses. Here we review and synthesize the limitations of these damage functions and describe how incorporating impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research advances and empirical findings could substantially improve damage modelling and the robustness of social cost of carbon values produced. We discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating these research advances into cost-benefit integrated assessment models, with guidance for future work.

  10. Operational risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKim, Vicky L

    2017-06-01

    In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

  11. Risk assessment [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

    2014-01-01

    What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

  12. Chemical Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

  13. Overview of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimington, J.D.

    1992-01-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

  14. Overview of risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

  15. State of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrad, J.

    1978-03-01

    In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

  16. Patient caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

    2009-01-01

    Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

  17. Evaluating the role of coastal habitats and sea-level rise in hurricane risk mitigation: An ecological economic assessment method and application to a business decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Sheila M W; Guannel, Gregory; Griffin, Robert; Faries, Joe; Boucher, Timothy; Thompson, Michael; Brenner, Jorge; Bernhardt, Joey; Verutes, Gregory; Wood, Spencer A; Silver, Jessica A; Toft, Jodie; Rogers, Anthony; Maas, Alexander; Guerry, Anne; Molnar, Jennifer; DiMuro, Johnathan L

    2016-04-01

    Businesses may be missing opportunities to account for ecosystem services in their decisions, because they do not have methods to quantify and value ecosystem services. We developed a method to quantify and value coastal protection and other ecosystem services in the context of a cost-benefit analysis of hurricane risk mitigation options for a business. We first analyze linked biophysical and economic models to examine the potential protection provided by marshes. We then applied this method to The Dow Chemical Company's Freeport, Texas facility to evaluate natural (marshes), built (levee), and hybrid (marshes and a levee designed for marshes) defenses against a 100-y hurricane. Model analysis shows that future sea-level rise decreases marsh area, increases flood heights, and increases the required levee height (12%) and cost (8%). In this context, marshes do not provide sufficient protection to the facility, located 12 km inland, to warrant a change in levee design for a 100-y hurricane. Marshes do provide some protection near shore and under smaller storm conditions, which may help maintain the coastline and levee performance in the face of sea-level rise. In sum, the net present value to the business of built defenses ($217 million [2010 US$]) is greater than natural defenses ($15 million [2010 US$]) and similar to the hybrid defense scenario ($229 million [2010 US$]). Examination of a sample of public benefits from the marshes shows they provide at least $117 million (2010 US$) in coastal protection, recreational value, and C sequestration to the public, while supporting 12 fisheries and more than 300 wildlife species. This study provides information on where natural defenses may be effective and a replicable approach that businesses can use to incorporate private, as well as public, ecosystem service values into hurricane risk management at other sites. © 2015 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc

  18. Effects of economic interactions on credit risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatchett, J P L; Kuehn, R

    2006-01-01

    We study a credit-risk model which captures effects of economic interactions on a firm's default probability. Economic interactions are represented as a functionally defined graph, and the existence of both cooperative and competitive business relations is taken into account. We provide an analytic solution of the model in a limit where the number of business relations of each company is large, but the overall fraction of the economy with which a given company interacts may be small. While the effects of economic interactions are relatively weak in typical (most probable) scenarios, they are pronounced in situations of economic stress, and thus lead to a substantial fattening of the tails of loss distributions in large loan portfolios. This manifests itself in a pronounced enhancement of the value at risk computed for interacting economies in comparison with their non-interacting counterparts

  19. Sovereign default risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijken, H.A.; Altman, E.I.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new approach toward assessing sovereign risk by examining rigorously the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector. Models can be utilised to measure the probability of default of the non-financial sector cumulatively for five years, both as an absolute

  20. Bahia State, Brazil : Ariculture Sector Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Diego; Caballero, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    The present study is part of an effort by the World Bank and the State of Bahia to assess agriculture sector risks as a contribution to the strategic economic development and poverty reduction agenda of the state government. It is composed of two phases: an agricultural sector risk identification and prioritization (volume one) and a risk management strategy and action plan (volume two). T...

  1. AN OVERVIEW ON STATE OF KNOWLEDGE OF RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN ECONOMICS FIELDS

    OpenAIRE

    Mirela NICHITA

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present a history and an evolution of concepts of risk and risk management in economic, respectively financial fields, highlighting the usefulness (or not) and complexity of tools for risk assessment developed over time. The main objective of risk management is to reduce costs and increase the value of company and stakeholders gains; also, a coherent risk management strategy may improve entity capital structure which will derive in a healthy financing policy. T...

  2. Assessing economic tradeoffs in forest management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernie Niemi; Ed. Whitelaw

    1999-01-01

    Method is described for assessing the competing demands for forest resources in a forest management plan by addressing economics values, economic impacts, and perceptions of fairness around each demand. Economics trends and forces that shape the dynamic ecosystem-economy relation are developed. The method is demonstrated through an illustrative analysis of a forest-...

  3. Risk assessment and nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodansky, D.

    1982-01-01

    The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

  4. Economic optimisation of flood risk management projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tsimopoulou, V.

    2015-01-01

    The Netherlands has developed a flood risk management policy based on an economic rationale. After the flood disaster of 1953, when a large area of the south-western part of the country was flooded and more than 1800 people lost their lives, the so-called Delta Committee was installed, whose main

  5. Downscaling socio-economic prospective scenarios with a participatory approach for assessing the possible impacts of future land use and cover changes on the vulnerability of societies to mountain risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grémont, Marine; Houet, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Due to the peculiarities of their landscapes and topography, mountain areas bring together a large range of socio-economic activities whose sustainability is likely to be jeopardised by projected global changes. Disturbance of hydro-meteorological processes will alter slope stability and affect mountain hazards occurrence. Meanwhile, socio-economic transformations will influence land use and cover changes (LUCC), which in turn will affect both hazards occurrence and hazards consequences on buildings, infrastructures and societies. Already faced with recurrent natural hazards, mountain areas will have to cope with increasing natural risks in the future. Better understanding the pathways through which future socio-economic changes might influence LUCC at local scale is thus a crucial step to assess accurately the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of societies to mountain risks in a global change context. Scientists face two main issues in assessing spatially explicit impacts of socio-economic scenarios in mountainous landscapes. First, modelling LUCC at local scale still faces many challenges related to past (observed) LUCC and those to consider in the future in terms of dynamics and processes. Second, downscaling global socio-economic scenarios so that they provide useful input for local LUCC models requires a thorough analysis of local social dynamics and economic drivers at stake, which falls short with current practices. Numerous socio-economic prospective scenarios have recently been developed at regional, national and international scales. They mostly rely on literature reviews and expert workshops carried out through global sectoral analysis (e.g. agriculture, forestry or industry) but only few of these exercises attempt to decline global scenarios at smaller scales confronting global vision with information gathered from the field and stakeholders. Yet, vulnerability assessments are more useful when undertaken at local scales that are relevant to

  6. Chlorine transportation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

    1977-02-01

    An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

  7. Assessment of fracture risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanis, John A.; Johansson, Helena; Oden, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene V.

    2009-01-01

    Fractures are a common complication of osteoporosis. Although osteoporosis is defined by bone mineral density at the femoral neck, other sites and validated techniques can be used for fracture prediction. Several clinical risk factors contribute to fracture risk independently of BMD. These include age, prior fragility fracture, smoking, excess alcohol, family history of hip fracture, rheumatoid arthritis and the use of oral glucocorticoids. These risk factors in conjunction with BMD can be integrated to provide estimates of fracture probability using the FRAX tool. Fracture probability rather than BMD alone can be used to fashion strategies for the assessment and treatment of osteoporosis.

  8. Risk assessment and management in IOR projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodyear, S.G.; Gregory, A.T.

    1994-01-01

    The application of IOR techniques is one of the investment opportunities open to Exploration and Production companies. A project will only go forward if the perceived balance between the rewards and the risks is acceptable. IOR projects may be ruled out because they are considered to involve significantly higher risks than conventional developments. Therefore, some means of evaluating the actual level of risk may be required if the full economic benefits from IOR techniques are to be realized. Risk assessment is a key element in safety cases, where a well-established methodology for quantifying risk exists. This paper discusses the extension of these methods to IOR project risk assessment. Combining reservoir and IOR technique uncertainties with their impact on project performance allows project risk to be better quantified. The results of the risk assessment are presented in terms of a risk-reward diagram that plots the probability surface for possible project outcomes as a function of NPV (reward) and exposure (risk)

  9. Risk as economic category: systematics scientific approach and refinement contents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.G. Vygovskyy

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies the categorical-conceptual apparatus of risk and its refinement based on a critical analysis of existing systematic scientific approaches. Determined that in the refinement of the economic nature of the risk of a number of controversial issues: the definition of the objective or subjective nature of risk; matching of concepts such as «risk», «danger», «loss», «probability of loss»; definition of negative or positive consequences of risk; identification of risk with its consequences, or source of origin, which makes the relevance of research topics. As a result of scientific research has been refined interpretation of risk as an economic category, the characteristics of the company associated with the probability of unforeseen situations that may lead to negative and positive impacts, assessment of which requires the development of alternatives for management decisions. Clarification of the definition focuses on the possibility (probability of a favorable (unfavorable events which require certain corrective action management unit of the enterprise. The author emphasizes the mandatory features of the category of «risk», in particular: the concept of risk is always associated with the uncertainty of the future; event occurring has implications for the enterprise (both negative and positive; consequences for necessitates the development of a number of alternative solutions to the possible elimination of the negative consequences of risky events; risk – a mandatory attribute of modern management (its value is enhanced in terms of market conditions; subject to risk assessment and management by the company. Dedicated and updated features contribute to the clarification of the nature of the economic risk and categorical conceptual apparatus of risk management.

  10. Crowdfunding our health: Economic risks and benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renwick, Matthew J; Mossialos, Elias

    2017-10-01

    Crowdfunding is an expanding form of alternative financing that is gaining traction in the health sector. This article presents a typology for crowdfunded health projects and a review of the main economic benefits and risks of crowdfunding in the health market. We use evidence from a literature review, complimented by expert interviews, to extend the fundamental principles and established theories of crowdfunding to a health market context. Crowdfunded health projects can be classified into four types according to the venture's purpose and funding method. These are projects covering health expenses, fundraising health initiatives, supporting health research, or financing commercial health innovation. Crowdfunding could economically benefit the health sector by expanding market participation, drawing money and awareness to neglected health issues, improving access to funding, and fostering project accountability and social engagement. However, the economic risks of health-related crowdfunding include inefficient priority setting, heightened financial risk, inconsistent regulatory policies, intellectual property rights concerns, and fraud. Theorized crowdfunding behaviours such as signalling and herding can be observed in the market for health-related crowdfunding. Broader threats of market failure stemming from adverse selection and moral hazard also apply. Many of the discussed economic benefits and risks of crowdfunding health campaigns are shared more broadly with those of crowdfunding projects in other sectors. Where crowdfunding health care appears to diverge from theory is the negative externality inefficient priority setting may have towards achieving broader public health goals. Therefore, the market for crowdfunding health care must be economically stable, as well as designed to optimally and equitably improve public health. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

  12. Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waterhouse, Rachel

    1992-01-01

    The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

  13. Techno-Economics & Life Cycle Assessment (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dutta, A.; Davis, R.

    2011-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of the techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) capabilities at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and describes the value of working with NREL on TEA and LCA.

  14. Integral risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.; Yadigaroglu, G.

    1991-01-01

    The series of lectures which forms the basis of this book and took place in the winter of 1989/90 at the ETH in Zuerich were held for the purpose of discussing the stage of development of our system of ethics in view of the extremely fast pace of technological progress and the risks which accompany it. Legal, psychological and political aspects of the problem were examined, but the emphasis was placed on ethical aspects. The effects which are examined in conventional risk analyses can be considered as a part of the ethical and social aspects involved, and in turn, the consideration of ethical and social aspects can be viewed as an extension of the conventional form of risk analysis. In any case, among risk experts, the significance of ethical and social factors is uncontested, especially as regards activities which can have far-reaching repurcussions. Some objective difficulties interfere with this goal, however: - No generally acknowledged set of ethical values exists. - Cultural influences and personal motives can interfere. - Normally a risk assessment is carried out in reference to individual facilities and within a small, clearly defined framework. Under certain circumstances, generalizations which are made for complete technological systems can lead to completely different conclusions. One contribution deals with integral views of the risks of atomic energy from an ethical and social perspective. (orig.) [de

  15. Assessing economic consequences of radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, M.D.; Lee, J.C.; Grimshaw, C.A.; Kalb, P.D.

    1987-01-01

    A recent review of existing models and methods for assessing potential consequences of accidents in the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system identifies economic consequence assessment methods as a weak point. Existing methods have mostly been designed to assess economic consequences of reactor accidents, the possible scale of which can be several orders of magnitude greater than anything possible in the HLW disposal system. There is therefore some question about the applicability of these methods, their assumptions, and their level of detail to assessments of smaller accidents. The US Dept. of Energy funded this study to determine needs for code modifications or model development for assessing economic costs of accidents in the HLW disposal system. The objectives of the study were as follows: (1) review the literature on economic consequences of accidents to determine the availability of assessment methods and data and their applicability to the HLW disposal system before closure. (2) Determine needs for expansion, revision, or adaptation of methods and data for modeling economic consequences of accidents of the scale projected for the disposal system. (3) Gather data that might be useful for the needed revisions for modeling economic impacts on this scale

  16. AN OVERVIEW ON STATE OF KNOWLEDGE OF RISK AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN ECONOMICS FIELDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirela NICHITA

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present a history and an evolution of concepts of risk and risk management in economic, respectively financial fields, highlighting the usefulness (or not and complexity of tools for risk assessment developed over time. The main objective of risk management is to reduce costs and increase the value of company and stakeholders gains; also, a coherent risk management strategy may improve entity capital structure which will derive in a healthy financing policy. The risk and risk management field has been developed merely after the second world war and creates the favourable context of a new C position in business chart – Chief Risk Officer. The paper will explore the etymology of term risk correlated with the uncertainty. Research on risk and risk management is not possible without taking into account the derivatives market.

  17. Risk assessment and risk evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niehaus, F.

    1978-01-01

    With the help of results of investigations and model calculations the risk of nuclear energy in routine operation is shown. In this context it is pointed out that the excellent operation results of reactors all over the world have led to the acceptability of risks from local loads no longer being in question. The attention of radiation protection is therefore focused on the emissions of long-living isotopes which collect in the atmosphere. With LWRs the risk of accidents is so minimal that statistical data is, and never will be available. One has to therefore fall back upon the so-called fault tree analyses. On the subject of risk evalution the author referred to a poll in Austria. From the result of this investigation one might conclude that nuclear energy serves as a crystallization point for a discussion of varying concepts for future development. More attention should be paid to this aspect from both sides, in order to objectify the further expansion of this source of energy. (orig./HP) [de

  18. Hazard waste risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawley, K.A.; Napier, B.A.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory continued to provide technical assistance to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Operational Safety (OOS) in the area of risk assessment for hazardous and radioactive-mixed waste management. The overall objective is to provide technical assistance to OOS in developing cost-effective risk assessment tools and strategies for bringing DOE facilities into compliance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). Major efforts during FY 1985 included (1) completing the modification of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hazard Ranking System (HRS) and developing training manuals and courses to assist in field office implementation of the modified Hazard Ranking System (mHRS); (2) initiating the development of a system for reviewing field office HRS/mHRS evaluations for appropriate use of data and appropriate application of the methodology; (3) initiating the development of a data base management system to maintain all field office HRS/mHRS scoring sheets and to support the master OOS environmental data base system; (4) developing implementation guidance for Phase I of the DOE CERCLA Program, Installation Assessment; (5) continuing to develop an objective, scientifically based methodology for DOE management to use in establishing priorities for conducting site assessments under Phase II of the DOE CERCLA Program, Confirmation; and (6) participating in developing the DOE response to EPA on the proposed listing of three sites on the National Priorities List

  19. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houghton, W.J.; Postula, F.D.

    1985-12-01

    This paper describes an economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by a utility due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however, the owning utility faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for the incapacitated nuclear power. Additional expenses are incurred by the utility for plant repair and if necessary, decontamination costs. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates. Over 60 economic variables contribute to the net cost uncertainty. The values of these variables are treated as uncertainty distributions and are used in a Monte carlo computer program to evaluate the cost uncertainty (investment risk) associated with damage which could occur from various categories of initiating accidents. As an example, results of computations for various levels of damage associated with a loss of coolant accident are shown as a range of consequential plant downtime and unrecovered cost. A typical investment risk profile is shown for these types of accidents. Cost/revenue values for each economic factor are presented for a Three Mile Island - II type accident, e.g., uncontrolled core heatup. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  20. [Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

    2014-03-01

    With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

  1. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  2. Presenting of a material exposure health risk assessment model in Oil and Gas Industries (case study: Pars Economic and Energy Region)

    OpenAIRE

    M. Heydari; M. Omidvari; I. M. Fam

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: One of the most important threats for employees working in chemical industries is exposing to the chemical materials. Lack of precaution and control regulations during working with chemicals can have irreparable consequences. So, in order to achieve an effective control program, it is necessary to have an appropriate assessment of the procedures involving exposure to the chemicals. William-fine method can provide an acceptable insight into hazard risk rate. . Material...

  3. Risk assessment handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.G.; Jones, J.L.; Hunt, R.N.; Roush, M.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1990-09-01

    The Probabilistic Risk Assessment Unit at EG ampersand G Idaho has developed this handbook to provide guidance to a facility manager exploring the potential benefit to be gained by performance of a risk assessment properly scoped to meet local needs. This document is designed to help the manager control the resources expended commensurate with the risks being managed and to assure that the products can be used programmatically to support future needs in order to derive maximum beneflt from the resources expended. We present a logical and functional mapping scheme between several discrete phases of project definition to ensure that a potential customer, working with an analyst, is able to define the areas of interest and that appropriate methods are employed in the analysis. In addition the handbook is written to provide a high-level perspective for the analyst. Previously, the needed information was either scattered or existed only in the minds of experienced analysts. By compiling this information and exploring the breadth of knowledge which exists within the members of the PRA Unit, the functional relationships between the customers' needs and the product have been established

  4. Potential economic impact assessment for cattle parasites in Mexico review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Here, economic losses caused by cattle parasites in Mexico were estimated on an annual basis. The main factors taken into consideration for this assessment included the total number of animals at risk, potential detrimental effects of parasitism on milk production or weight gain, and records of cond...

  5. DUPIC fuel cycle economics assessment (1)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, H. B.; Roh, G. H.; Kim, D. H.

    1999-04-01

    This is a state-of-art report that describes the current status of the DUPIC fuel cycle economics analysis conducted by the DUPIC fuel compatibility assessment group of the DUPIC fuel development project. For the DUPIC fuel cycle economics analysis, the DUPIC fuel compatibility assessment group has organized the 1st technical meeting composed of 8 domestic specialists from government, academy, industry, etc. and a foreign specialist of hot-cell design from TRI on July 16, 1998. This report contains the presentation material of the 1st technical meeting, published date used for the economics analysis and opinions of participants, which could be utilized for further DUPIC fuel cycle and back-end fuel cycle economics analyses. (author). 11 refs., 7 charts

  6. Assessing Risk of Innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allgood, GO

    2001-01-01

    Today's manufacturing systems and equipment must perform at levels thought impossible a decade ago. Companies must push operations, quality, and efficiencies to unprecedented levels while holding down costs. In this new economy, companies must be concerned with market shares, equity growth, market saturation, and profit. U.S. manufacturing is no exception and is a prime example of businesses forced to adapt to constant and rapid changes in customer needs and product mixes, giving rise to the term ''Agile Manufacturing''. The survival and ultimate success of the American Manufacturing economy may depend upon its ability to create, innovate, and quickly assess the impact that new innovations will have on its business practices. Given the need for flexibility, companies need proven methods to predict and measure the impact that new technologies and strategies will have on overall plant performance from an enterprise perspective. The Value-Derivative Model provides a methodology and approach to assess such impacts in terms of energy savings, production increases, quality impacts, emission reduction, and maintenance and operating costs as they relate to enabling and emerging technologies. This is realized by calculating a set of first order sensitivity parameters obtained from expanding a Taylor Series about the system's operating point. These sensitivity parameters are invariant economic and operational indicators that quantify the impact of any proposed technology in terms of material throughput, efficiency, energy usage, environmental effects, and costs. These parameters also provide a mechanism to define metrics and performance measures that can be qualified in terms of real economic impact. Value-Derivative Analysis can be applied across all manufacturing and production segments of our economy and has found specific use in steel and textiles. Where economic models give the cost of conducting a business, Value-Derivative Analysis provides the cost to conduct

  7. Assessing economic consequences of radiation accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, M.D.; Lee, J.C.; Grimshaw, C.A.; Kalb, P.D.

    1987-01-01

    This project reviewed the literature on the economic consequences of accidents to determine the availability of assessment methods and data and their applicability to the high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal system before closure; determined needs for expansion, revision, or adaptation of methods and data for modeling economic consequences of accidents of the scale projected for the disposal system; and gathered data that might be useful for the needed revisions. 8 refs., 1 tab

  8. 2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

  9. Risk assessment and economic impact analysis of the implementation of new European legislation on radiopharmaceuticals in Italy: the case of the new monograph chapter Compounding of Radiopharmaceuticals (PHARMEUROPA, Vol. 23, No. 4, October 2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chitto, Giuseppe; Di Domenico, Elvira; Gandolfo, Patrizia; Ria, Francesco; Tafuri, Chiara; Papa, Sergio

    2013-12-01

    An assessment of the new monograph chapter Compounding of Radiopharmaceuticals has been conducted on the basis of the first period of implementation of Italian legislation on Good Radiopharmaceuticals Practice (NBP) in the preparation of radiopharmaceuticals, in keeping with Decree by the Italian Ministry of Health dated March 30, 2005. This approach is well grounded in the several points of similarity between the two sets of regulations. The impact on patient risk, on staff risk, and on healthcare organization risk, has been assessed. At the same time, the actual costs of coming into compliance with regulations have been estimated. A change risk analysis has been performed through the identification of healthcare-associated risks, the analysis and measurement of the likelihood of occurrence and of the potential impact in terms of patient harm and staff harm, and the determination of the healthcare organization's controlling capability. In order to evaluate the economic impact, the expenses directly related to the implementation of the activities as per ministerial decree have been estimated after calculating the overall costs unrelated to NBP implementation. The resulting costs have then been averaged over the total number of patient services delivered. NBP implementation shows an extremely positive impact on risk management for both patients receiving Nuclear Medicine services and the healthcare organization. With regard to healthcare workers, instead, the implementation of these regulations has a negative effect on the risk for greater exposure and a positive effect on the defense against litigation. The economic impact analysis of NBP implementation shows a 34% increase in the costs for a single patient service. The implementation of the ministerial decree allows for greater detectability of and control over a number of critical elements, paving the way for risk management and minimization. We, therefore, believe that the proposed tool can provide basic

  10. Probabilistic economic frameworks for disaster risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dulac, Guillaume; Forni, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Starting from the general concept of risk, we set up an economic analysis framework for Disaster Risk Management (DRM) investment. It builds on uncertainty management techniques - notably Monte Carlo simulations - and includes both a risk and performance metrics adapted to recurring issues in disaster risk management as entertained by governments and international organisations. This type of framework proves to be enlightening in several regards, and is thought to ease the promotion of DRM projects as "investments" rather than "costs to be born" and allow for meaningful comparison between DRM and other sectors. We then look at the specificities of disaster risk investments of medium to large scales through this framework, where some "invariants" can be identified, notably: (i) it makes more sense to perform analysis over long-term horizons -space and time scales are somewhat linked; (ii) profiling of the fluctuations of the gains and losses of DRM investments over long periods requires the ability to handle possibly highly volatile variables; (iii) complexity increases with the scale which results in a higher sensitivity of the analytic framework on the results; (iv) as the perimeter of analysis (time, theme and space-wise) is widened, intrinsic parameters of the project tend to weight lighter. This puts DRM in a very different perspective from traditional modelling, which usually builds on more intrinsic features of the disaster as it relates to the scientific knowledge about hazard(s). As models hardly accommodate for such complexity or "data entropy" (they require highly structured inputs), there is a need for a complementary approach to understand risk at global scale. The proposed framework suggests opting for flexible ad hoc modelling of specific issues consistent with one's objective, risk and performance metrics. Such tailored solutions are strongly context-dependant (time and budget, sensitivity of the studied variable in the economic framework) and can

  11. The role of economic incentives for managing technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunreuther, H.

    1995-01-01

    A key issue facing society in dealing with the management of technological facilities is balancing the costs of reducing risks with the relevant benefits. These tradeoffs are difficult for both experts and laypersons to make when there is limited objective data on the nature of the health and safety risks. Economic incentives, such as insurance and compensation, can play an important role in reducing and preventing losses associated with technological facilities if they are coupled with appropriate regulations and/or standards. They also can communicate information to the public on the price associated with different levels of risk. The talk will focus on how these policy tools can be utilized for improving the risk management process in conjunction with risk assessment. The siting of facilities for storing and disposing of potentially hazardous wastes will be used to illustrate these concepts and indicate how the public can be made a more integral part of the process

  12. Economic risks of nuclear power reactor accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.

    1984-04-01

    Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which occur during US LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant forced outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models have been developed for potential use by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost/benefit analyses for decision-making purposes. The new onsite cost models estimate societal losses from power production cost increases, plant capital losses, plant decontamination costs, and plant repair costs which may be incurred after LWR operational events. Early decommissioning costs, plant worker health impact costs, electric utility business costs, nuclear power industry costs, and litigation costs are also addressed. The newly developed offsite economic consequence models estimate The costs of post-accident population protective measures and public health impacts. The costs of population evacuation and temporary relocation, agricultural product disposal, land and property decontamination, and land interdiction are included in the economic models for population protective measures. Costs of health impacts and medical care costs are also included in the models

  13. Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — The Surgery Risk Assessment (SRA) database is part of the VA Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). This database contains assessments of selected surgical...

  14. Assessment of technical risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaeger, T A [Bundesanstalt fuer Materialpruefung, Berlin (Germany, F.R.)

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions.

  15. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  16. Concept of economic readiness levels assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuniaristanto, Sutopo, W.; Widiyanto, A.; Putri, A. S.

    2017-11-01

    This research aims to build a concept of Economic Readiness Level (ERL) assessment for incubation center. ERL concept is arranged by considering both market and business aspects. Every aspect is divided into four phases and each of them consists of some indicators. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to develop the ERL in calculating the weight of every single aspect and indicator. Interval scale between 0 and 4 is also applied in indicator assessment. In order to calculate ERL, score in every indicator and the weight of both the aspect and indicator are considered. ERL value is able to show in detail the innovative product readiness level from economic sight, market and business aspect. There are four levels in Economic Readiness Level scheme which are investigation, feasibility, planning and introduction.

  17. Caries risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

  18. High-dose chemotherapy for patients with high-risk breast cancer: a clinical and economic assessment using a quality-adjusted survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marino, Patricia; Roché, Henri; Moatti, Jean-Paul

    2008-04-01

    The benefit of high-dose chemotherapy (HDC) has not been clearly demonstrated. It may offer disease-free survival improvement at the expense of major toxicity and increasing cost. We evaluated the trade-offs between toxicity, relapse, and costs using a quality-adjusted time without symptoms or toxicity (Q-TWiST) analysis. The analysis was conducted in the context of a randomized trial (PEGASE 01) evaluating the benefit of HDC for 314 patients with high-risk breast cancer. A Q-TWiST analysis was first performed to compare HDC with standard chemotherapy. We then used the results of this Q-TWiST analysis to inform a cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) comparison between treatments. Q-TWiST durations were in favor of HDC, whatever the weighting coefficients used for the analysis. This benefit was significant when the weighting coefficient related to the time spent after relapse was low (0.78), HDC offered no benefit. For intermediate values, the results depended on the weighting coefficient attributed to the toxicity period. The incremental cost per QALY ranged from 12,691euro/QALY to 26,439euro/QALY, according to the coefficients used to weight toxicity and relapse. The benefits of HDC outweigh the burdens of treatment for a wide range of utility coefficients. Economic impact is not a barrier to HDC diffusion in this situation. Nevertheless, no significant benefit was demonstrated for a certain range of utility values.

  19. Methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.R.

    1981-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction (identification, quantification of risk); some approaches to risk evaluation (use of the 'no risk' principle; the 'acceptable risk' method; risk balancing; comparison of risks, benefits and other costs); cost benefit analysis; an alternative approach (tabulation and display; description and reduction of the data table); identification of potential decision sets consistent with the constraints. Some references are made to nuclear power. (U.K.)

  20. Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clauss, D.B.

    1994-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

  1. Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.

    1988-01-01

    A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

  2. Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

  3. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  4. Conversion economics of forest biomaterials: risk and financial analysis of CNC manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camilla Abbati de Assis; Carl Houtman; Richard Phillips; E.M. Ted Bilek; Orlando J. Rojas; Lokendra Pal; Maria Soledad Peresin; Hasan Jameel; Ronalds Gonzalez

    2017-01-01

    Commercialization of cellulose nanocrystals (CNC) presents opportunities for a wide range of new products. Techno-economic assessments can provide insightful information for the effi cient design of conversion processes, drive cost-saving efforts, and reduce fi nancial risks. In this study, we conducted techno-economic assessments for CNC production using information...

  5. HTGR accident and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

  6. Information needs for risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

    1990-12-31

    Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  7. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

  8. Stability of risk attitudes and media coverage of economic news

    OpenAIRE

    Tausch, Franziska; Zumbuehl, Maria

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of exogenous changes in individuals' perceived economic environment on their self-stated risk attitudes by exploiting changes in media coverage of economic news. We use information on risk attitudes from the German Socioeconomic Panel and combine it with data on the average daily frequency of economic news reports during the year and the month preceding the date of the risk attitude elicitation. Using fixed effects regressions we observe effects of both long...

  9. [Forensic assessment of violence risk].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

    2014-03-01

    Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk assessment and regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    The approach to determining how safe is safe for the nuclear industry is to ensure that the risks are comparable with or less than those of other safe industries. There are some problems in implementing such an approach, because the effects of low levels of radiation are stochastic and assumptions are required in estimating the risks. A conservative approach has generally been adopted. Risk estimates across different activities are a useful indication of where society may be overspending or underspending to reduce risk, but the analysis has to take account of public preferences. Once risks have been estimated, limits may be chosen which the industry is expected to meet under normal and postulated accident conditions. Limits have been set so that nuclear risks do not exceed those in safe industries, and under normal conditions nuclear facilities operate at levels far below these specified limits

  11. Subjective risk assessment for planning conservation projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Game, Edward T; Fitzsimons, James A; Lipsett-Moore, Geoff; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2013-01-01

    Conservation projects occur under many types of uncertainty. Where this uncertainty can affect achievement of a project’s objectives, there is risk. Understanding risks to project success should influence a range of strategic and tactical decisions in conservation, and yet, formal risk assessment rarely features in the guidance or practice of conservation planning. We describe how subjective risk analysis tools can be framed to facilitate the rapid identification and assessment of risks to conservation projects, and how this information should influence conservation planning. Our approach is illustrated with an assessment of risks to conservation success as part of a conservation plan for the work of The Nature Conservancy in northern Australia. Risks can be both internal and external to a project, and occur across environmental, social, economic and political systems. Based on the relative importance of a risk and the level of certainty in its assessment we propose a series of appropriate, project level responses including research, monitoring, and active amelioration. Explicit identification, prioritization, and where possible, management of risks are important elements of using conservation resources in an informed and accountable manner. (letter)

  12. Models for Pesticide Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA considers the toxicity of the pesticide as well as the amount of pesticide to which a person or the environments may be exposed in risk assessment. Scientists use mathematical models to predict pesticide concentrations in exposure assessment.

  13. Using risk assessment in periodontics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodman, Alan J

    2014-08-01

    Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

  14. Risk assessment techniques for industrial installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croitoru, C.; Dumitrescu, M.; Preda, I.; Stefanescu, I.; Titescu, G.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a risk analysis which concerns the following stages: identification of the initiation events, evaluation of the occurrence frequency of different accident sequences, assessment of human, economical, and environmental consequences, risk assessment and management. The study of the accident sequences subsequent to an initiation event was achieved by the event tree method. Also, there were developed methods based on mathematical models of installations which take into account reliability data, data concerning the exploitation history, and data referring to the human factor effects in the installation operation. These methods were used for the determination of occurrence frequencies of hydrogen sulfide emission accidents in the heavy water production installations

  15. Environmental Risk Communication through Qualitative Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabre J. Coleman

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental analysts are often hampered in communicating the risks of environmental contaminants due to the myriad of regulatory requirements that are applicable. The use of a qualitative, risk-based control banding strategy for assessment and control of potential environmental contaminants provides a standardized approach to improve risk communication. Presented is a model that provides an effective means for determining standardized responses and controls for common environmental issues based on the level of risk. The model is designed for integration within an occupational health and safety management system to provide a multidisciplinary environmental and occupational risk management approach. This environmental model, which utilizes multidisciplinary control banding strategies for delineating risk, complements the existing Risk Level Based Management System, a proven method in a highly regulated facility for occupational health and safety. A simplified environmental risk matrix is presented that is stratified over four risk levels. Examples of qualitative environmental control banding strategies are presented as they apply to United States regulations for construction, research activities, facility maintenance, and spill remediation that affect air, water, soil, and waste disposal. This approach offers a standardized risk communication language for multidisciplinary issues that will improve communications within and between environmental health and safety professionals, workers, and management.

  16. Audit risk assessment model

    OpenAIRE

    Jodelienė, Rita

    2010-01-01

    The recent changes of the global scale caused by the development of business and an excessive use of subjective decisions and estimates when drawing up financial statements have caused an increased pressure that may lead to fraudulent financial reporting. Audit firms are obligated to express an independent opinion on the truthfulness and fairness of the information presented in financial statements to enable the users to take informed economic decisions. Therefore, it is important to further ...

  17. RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

  18. Risk assessment and management logistics chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vikulov

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the context of economic globalization and increasing complexity of economic relations enterprises need methods and techniques to improve and sustain their position on the global market. Integration processes offer business new opportunities, but at the same time present new challenges for the management, including the key objectives of the risk management. Method: On the basis of analysis tools known from the pertinent literature (Supply Chain Management and Supply Chain Risk Management methods, methods of probability theory, methods of risk management, methods of statistics the authors of this paper proposed their own risk assessment method and the method of management of logistics chains. The proposed tool is a specific hybrid of solutions known from the literature. Results: The presented method has been successfully used within the frames of economic-mathematical model of industrial enterprises. Indicators of supply chain risks, including risks caused by supplier are considered in this paper. Authors formed a method of optimizing the level of supply chain risk in the integration with suppliers and customers. Conclusion: Every organization, which starting the process of integration with supplier and customers, needs to use tools, methodologies and techniques for identification of "weak links" in the supply chain. The proposed method allows to fix risk origin places in various links of the supply chain and to identify "weak links" of a logistic chain that may occur in the future. The method is a useful tool for managing not only risks and risk situations, but also to improve the efficiency of current assets management by providing the ability to optimize the level of risk in the current assets management of the industrial enterprise.

  19. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    two-page assessment representing the state of knowledge/evidence of that risk, available risk mitigations, traceability to the Space Flight Human System Standards (SFHSS) and program requirements, and future work required. These data then can drive coordinated budgets across the Human Research Program, the International Space Station, Crew Health and Safety and Advanced Exploration System budgets to provide the most economical and timely mitigations. The risk assessments were completed for the 6 DRMs and serve as the baseline for which subsequent research and technology development and crew health care portfolios can be assessed. The HSRB reviews each risk at least annually or when new evidence/information is available that adds to the body of evidence. The current status of each risk can be reported to program management for operations, budget reviews and general oversight of the human system risk management program.

  20. The Economic Risks Arising from the Analysis of the Balance Sheet of an Economic Entity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Mihaela Marin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Any economic entity operates under probability and risk. In a general acceptation, risk means the validity of the result obtained under pressure of the economic environment; in other words, the risk is the potential damage posed to heritage, interests and affect the entity. In this paper we want to capture, the calculation in terms of the balance sheet analysis of the three risks, which can be measured on the basis of the balance sheet data and indicators, namely: the operational risk, financial risk, and the risk of bankruptcy.

  1. Comparison of Country Risk, Sustainability and Economic Safety Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Stankeviciene

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Country risk, sustainability an economic safety are becoming more important in the contemporary economic world. The aim of this paper is to present the importance of comparison formalisation of country risk, sustainability, and economic safety indices for strategic alignment. The work provides an analysis on the relationship between country risk, sustainability an economic safety in EU countries, based on statistical data. Investigations and calculations of rankings provided by Euromoney Country Risk Index, European Economic Sustainability Index as well as for Economic Security Index were made and the results of EU country ranking based on three criteria were provided. Furthermore, the data for the Baltic States was summarised and the corresponding index of consistency for random judgments was evaluated.

  2. Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

    2017-07-01

    The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m b = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is "what if this earthquake is repeated today." In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that "the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times" in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety

  3. Economic assessment of mushroom project commercialisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mat Rasol Awang; Rosnani Abdul Rashid; Hassan Hamdani Hassan Mutaat; Meswan Maskom

    2010-01-01

    The market value of mushroom is worth US $45 billion comprising: US $28-30 billion from food, US $9-10 billion from medicinal products and US $3.5-4 billion from wild mushroom. Malaysian import deficit of mushroom over the year 2001-2007 was 40,933 metric ton that worth of RM 187.7 million. The existing local market is lucrative and the potential world market is very large. Having cultivation technology in placed, understanding key value chains of cultivation technology processes, this paper assesses the case study of project economic of mushroom commercialization. (author)

  4. Risk assessment or mismanagement?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whyte, T. [Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union, Qld. (Australia)

    2009-10-01

    As the coal industry progresses into a new year of economic uncertainty one thing remains paramount and that is maintaining the health and safety of our coal mine workers. With the ever present reminder from the media that no job is safe, Queensland's coal mine workers thoughts are not 100 percent on the job and now more than ever is the time for all to be truly vigilant and to look after their workmates. The articles discusses management aspects of coal mine health and safety, based on some key points from the Coal Mining Safety and Health Act 1999 and the Coal Mining Safety and Health Regulation 2001. 2 photos.

  5. An economic assessment of U.S. MHTGR design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mears, L. Daniel

    1990-01-01

    GCRA's economic goal for the U.S. MHTGR design is for the equilibrium plants to have at least a 10% power cost advantage over comparably sized, state-of-the-art coal plants. In addition, the designers are challenged to limit the overall financial risk to be on par with such a coal plant. During the past year, cost estimates and economic assessments have been updated in the U.S. MHTGR Program. Further, a major study has been completed adapting the MHTGR to a water desalination/cogeneration application. These results will be presented along with a discussion of the key GCRA design requirements that limit the overall financial risk to the prospective owner/operators of future MHTGR plants. (author)

  6. An economic assessment of U.S. MHTGR design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mears, L Daniel [Gas-Cooled Reactor Associates, San Diego, CA (United States)

    1990-07-01

    GCRA's economic goal for the U.S. MHTGR design is for the equilibrium plants to have at least a 10% power cost advantage over comparably sized, state-of-the-art coal plants. In addition, the designers are challenged to limit the overall financial risk to be on par with such a coal plant. During the past year, cost estimates and economic assessments have been updated in the U.S. MHTGR Program. Further, a major study has been completed adapting the MHTGR to a water desalination/cogeneration application. These results will be presented along with a discussion of the key GCRA design requirements that limit the overall financial risk to the prospective owner/operators of future MHTGR plants. (author)

  7. Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hubert, P.

    1984-01-01

    More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

  8. Perspectives on the economic risks of LWR accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ritchie, L.T.; Burke, R.P.

    1986-01-01

    Models which can be used for the analysis of the economic risks from events which may occur during LWR operation have been developed. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant forced outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The economic consequence models have been applied in studies of the economic risks from the operation of US LWR plants. The results of the analyses provide some important perspectives regarding the economic risks of LWR accidents. The analyses indicate that economic risks, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by the onsite costs of relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for a typical US plant

  9. Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

    1987-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

  10. Information Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    alternative root be economically advantageous , an actor’s ability to exploit market forces and create an alternative root would be significantly improved...conduct their operations. Therefore, a loss or disruption to Internet services would not be advantageous for the desired outcomes of these syndicates.26... eCommerce Service loss or disruption [C] Traffic Redirection [C] = Undesired consequence Information Technology Sector Baseline Risk Assessment

  11. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  12. Economic Journal in Russia: Quality Assessment Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ol’ga Valentinovna Tret’yakova

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The paper attempts to assess economic journals included in the List of peer-reviewed scientific journals and editions that are authorized to publish the principal research findings of doctoral (candidate’s dissertations (the VAK List, it was established by the Decision of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation and entered into force on December 01, 2016. The general assessment of the journals that include more than 380 titles is carried out by analyzing their bibliometric indicators in the system of the Russian Science Citation Index, in particular, by examining the values of their impact factors. The analysis conducted at the Institute of Socio-economic Development of Territories of RAS shows that a relatively small number of economic journals publish a significant proportion of articles that obtain a large share of citations. The author reveals that the new VAK List includes over 50% of journals specializing in economic sciences, which have a lower level of citation or which are virtually not cited at all. This indirectly indicates that such journals are “left behind” the “main stream of science”, that their significance is local, availability low, attractiveness for the audience and scientific authority insufficient. The analysis proves that when forming the list of peer-reviewed scientific publications recommended for publication of dissertation research findings, along with other criteria, it is advisable to use tools that help assess the level of the journal. It is very important that the evaluation had quantitative expression and served as a specific measure for ranking the journals. One of these tools may be a criterion value for the two-year impact factor, which helps identify journals with a sufficient citation level. The paper presents the results of analysis of the RSCI list, which was proposed by the Council for Science under the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation as an

  13. Tools for Microbiological risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bassett, john; Nauta, Maarten; Lindqvist, Roland

    can increase the understanding of microbiological risks in foods. It is timely to inform food safety professionals about the availability and utility of MRA tools. Therefore, the focus of this report is to aid the food safety manager by providing a concise summary of the tools available for the MRA......Microbiological Risk Assessment (MRA) has emerged as a comprehensive and systematic approach for addressing the risk of pathogens in specific foods and/or processes. At government level, MRA is increasingly recognised as a structured and objective approach to understand the level of risk in a given...... food/pathogen scenario. Tools developed so far support qualitative and quantitative assessments of the risk that a food pathogen poses to a particular population. Risk can be expressed as absolute numbers or as relative (ranked) risks. The food industry is beginning to appreciate that the tools for MRA...

  14. An economic assessment of low carbon vehicles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Summerton, P. [Cambridge Econometrics CE, Cambridge (United Kingdom); Harrison, P. [European Climate Foundation ECF, Brussels (Belgium)] (eds.)

    2013-03-15

    The study aimed to analyse the economic impacts of decarbonizing light duty vehicles. As part of the study, the impacts of the European Commissions proposed 2020 CO2 regulation for cars and vans have been assessed. The analysis showed that a shift to low-carbon vehicles would increase spending on vehicle technology, therefore generating positive direct employment impacts, but potentially adding 1,000-1,100 euro to the capital cost of the average new car in 2020. However, these additional technology costs would be offset by fuel savings of around 400 euro per year, indicating an effective break-even point for drivers of approximately three years. At the EU level, the cost of running and maintaining the European car fleet would become 33-35 billion euro lower each year than in a 'do nothing scenario' by 2030, leading to positive economic impacts including indirect employment gains. Data on the cost of low carbon vehicle technologies has largely been sourced from the auto industry itself, with the study supported by a core working group including Nissan, GE, the European Association of Automotive Suppliers (CLEPA), and the European Storage Battery Manufacturers Association (Eurobat). Fuel price projections for the study were based on the IEA's World Energy Outlook, while technical modelling was carried out using the transport policy scoping tool SULTAN (developed by Ricardo-AEA for the European Commission) and the Road Vehicle Cost and Efficiency Calculation Framework, also developed by Ricardo-AEA. Macro-economic modelling was done using the E3ME model, which has previously been used for several European Commission and EU government impact assessments. This report focuses on efficient use of fossil fuels in internal combustion- and hybrid electric vehicles. It will be followed by a second report, which will focus on further reducing the use of fossil fuels by also substituting them with domestically produced energy carriers, such as electricity and

  15. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  16. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  17. Carcinogen risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hazelwoold, R.N.

    1987-01-01

    This article describes the methods by which risk factors for carcinogenic hazards are determined and the limitations inherent in the process. From statistical and epidemiological studies, the major identifiable factors related to cancer in the United States were determined to be cigarette smoking, diet, reproductive and sexual behavior, infections, ultraviolet and ionizing radiation, and alcohol consumption. The incidence of lung cancer due to air pollutants was estimated to be less than 2%. Research needs were discussed

  18. Risks assessment and comparison: Interest and feasibility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulon, Rene

    1989-01-01

    Comparative risk assessment and risk management have become a real discipline, requiring a scientific approach. This is due to the increasing need to take account of risks in the decision processes together with other economic, social or political considerations. Although the notion of risk is generally associated with emergency situations, it seems necessary to pay more attention to those situations which are considered as normal situations but could be responsible for a significant part of the observed health effects. In this context, a research programme entitled Programme Grand Delta has been developed at a regional level: its aim is to provide a clear and simple representation of the risks to which the population living in this area is exposed. (author)

  19. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shinaishin, M.A.

    1988-06-01

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shinaishin, M A

    1988-06-15

    The objective of this work is to provide the tools necessary for clear identification of: the purpose of a Probabilistic Risk Study, the bounds and depth of the study, the proper modeling techniques to be used, the failure modes contributing to the analysis, the classical and baysian approaches for manipulating data necessary for quantification, ways for treating uncertainties, and available computer codes that may be used in performing such probabilistic analysis. In addition, it provides the means for measuring the importance of a safety feature to maintaining a level of risk at a Nuclear Power Plant and the worth of optimizing a safety system in risk reduction. In applying these techniques so that they accommodate our national resources and needs it was felt that emphasis should be put on the system reliability analysis level of PRA. Objectives of such studies could include: comparing systems' designs of the various vendors in the bedding stage, and performing grid reliability and human performance analysis using national specific data. (author)

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

  2. Risk assessment in maritime transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

    2001-01-01

    A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

  3. Framework for ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

    1992-02-01

    Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

  4. Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

  5. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  6. Health economics and outcomes methods in risk-based decision-making for blood safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Custer, Brian; Janssen, Mart P.

    2015-01-01

    Analytical methods appropriate for health economic assessments of transfusion safety interventions have not previously been described in ways that facilitate their use. Within the context of risk-based decision-making (RBDM), health economics can be important for optimizing decisions among competing

  7. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.C.

    1992-01-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

  8. Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

    1992-07-01

    There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

  9. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

  10. Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  11. Building better environmental risk assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raymond eLayton

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

  12. Risk assessment in international operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stricklin, Daniela L.

    2008-01-01

    During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

  13. Assessment and perception of risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daglish, J

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors.

  14. Reviewing the economic efficiency of disaster risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mechler, Reinhard

    2013-04-01

    There is a lot of rhetoric suggesting that disaster risk management (DRM) pays, yet surprisingly little in the way of hard facts. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is one major tool that can provide quantitative information about the prioritization of disaster risk management (DRM) (and climate adaptation) based on economic principles. Yet, on a global scale, there has been surprisingly little robust evidence on the economic efficiency and benefits of risk management measures. This review shows that for the limited evidence reported the economic case for DRM across a range of hazards is strong and that the benefits of investing in DRM outweigh the costs of doing so, on average, by about four times the cost in terms of avoided and reduced losses. Most studies using a CBA approach focus on structural DRM and most information has been made available on physical flood prevention. There have been some limited studies on preparedness and risk financing. The global evidence base is limited and estimates appear not very solid, and overall, in line with the conclusion of the recent IPCC SREX report, there is limited evidence and medium agreement across the literature. Some of the factors behind the limited robustness are inherent to CBA more widely: these challenges comprise the inability to price intangibles, evaluating strategies rather than single projects, difficulties in assessing softer rather than infrastructure-related options, choices regarding a proper discount rate, lack of accounting for the distribution of benefits and costs and difficulties with assessing nonmarket values such as those related to health, the environment, or public goods. Although techniques exist to address some of these challenges, they are not very likely to easily go away. Other challenges associated specifically with DRM, such as the need and difficulty to undertake risk -based analysis can be overcome, and there have been manuals and reports providing a way forward. In an age of austerity, cost

  15. Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

    2009-07-01

    Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

  16. Modern biogeochemistry environmental risk assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Bashkin, Vladimir N

    2006-01-01

    Most books deal mainly with various technical aspects of ERA description and calculationsAims at generalizing the modern ideas of both biogeochemical and environmental risk assessment during recent yearsAims at supplementing the existing books by providing a modern understanding of mechanisms that are responsible for the ecological risk for human beings and ecosystem

  17. Risk assessment future cash flows

    OpenAIRE

    Chachina H. G.

    2012-01-01

    This article is about risk assessment in planning future cash flows. Discount rate in DCF-model must include four factors: risk cash flow, inflation, value of investments, turnover assets. This has an influence net present value cash flow and make his incomparable.

  18. Test reactor risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jennings, R.H.; Rawlins, J.K.; Stewart, M.E.

    1976-04-01

    A methodology has been developed for the identification of accident initiating events and the fault modeling of systems, including common mode identification, as these methods are applied in overall test reactor risk assessment. The methods are exemplified by a determination of risks to a loss of primary coolant flow in the Engineering Test Reactor

  19. Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

  20. Cloud computing assessing the risks

    CERN Document Server

    Carstensen, Jared; Golden, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    Cloud Computing: Assessing the risks answers these questions and many more. Using jargon-free language and relevant examples, analogies and diagrams, it is an up-to-date, clear and comprehensive guide the security, governance, risk, and compliance elements of Cloud Computing.

  1. Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

  2. New approaches for improving cardiovascular risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paredes, Simão; Rocha, Teresa; Mendes, Diana; Carvalho, Paulo; Henriques, Jorge; Morais, João; Ferreira, Jorge; Mendes, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    Clinical guidelines recommend the use of cardiovascular risk assessment tools (risk scores) to predict the risk of events such as cardiovascular death, since these scores can aid clinical decision-making and thereby reduce the social and economic costs of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, despite their importance, risk scores present important weaknesses that can diminish their reliability in clinical contexts. This study presents a new framework, based on current risk assessment tools, that aims to minimize these limitations. Appropriate application and combination of existing knowledge is the main focus of this work. Two different methodologies are applied: (i) a combination scheme that enables data to be extracted and processed from various sources of information, including current risk assessment tools and the contributions of the physician; and (ii) a personalization scheme based on the creation of patient groups with the purpose of identifying the most suitable risk assessment tool to assess the risk of a specific patient. Validation was performed based on a real patient dataset of 460 patients at Santa Cruz Hospital, Lisbon, Portugal, diagnosed with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome. Promising results were obtained with both approaches, which achieved sensitivity, specificity and geometric mean of 78.79%, 73.07% and 75.87%, and 75.69%, 69.79% and 72.71%, respectively. The proposed approaches present better performances than current CVD risk scores; however, additional datasets are required to back up these findings. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Published by Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  3. Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

  4. Risks in hospitals. Assessment and Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradea Ioana-Alexandra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In a complex world, characterized by a multitude of risks, managers need to manage the risks they encounter, in an efficient way and in the shortest time possible. In the current economic crisis, the concept of hospital risk management, as the process in which is identified, analyzed, reduced, or avoided a risk that may affect the hospital, gained great importance. The Romanian health system, distinguished by: lack of transparency, poor funding, the loss of the valuable medical staff, lack of hospitals in villages and small towns, inability to engage patients due to the old and poor equipment, lack of research and problems in information privacy and cyber-security, requires an appropriate management, enabling risk managers to take decisions in order to avoid the occurrence of risks. Important for the functioning of every hospital is the perception of patients and their degree of satisfaction, regarding the quality of services, which depend largely on the quality of human resources. But what are the human resources weaknesses and risks from the patient point of view? What are the risk indicators which must be monitored to avoid risks? And also, which is the most useful method for measurement and assessment of risk?

  5. Economics and management of climate change: risks, mitigation and adaptation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Antes, Ralf

    2008-01-01

    ... climate change poses risks to societies and companies, nor about adequate strategies to cope with these risks. Bringing together scholars from environmental economics, political science, and business management, this book describes, analyses and evaluates climate change risks and responses of societies and companies. The book c...

  6. Economic risks of the system of state and municipal procurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belokrylova Olga, S.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the audit of economic risks at all stages of procurement for state and municipal needs from both customers and bidders is carried out on the basis of the implementation of the integrated approach . Stages in the procurement under a single contract system, which is characterized by the high economic risks are planning, supplier selection, conclusion and execution of the contract. A number of the measures according to the localization of economic risks are offered, in particular the implementation of compliance programs, which institutionalize the compliance by the organization, anti-corruption legislation; increasing qualification of specialists in public procurement and increased control through centralization of procurement.

  7. Pathology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1976-01-01

    Programs for providing basic data for use in evaluating the hazard to man from exposure to radiation and other energy-related pollutants are reviewed. A computer program was developed that takes the existing mortality and fertility data on a given population and applies dose-response coefficients and estimated increments of exposure to chemical or radioactive effluents and derives the excess deaths by age and sex for 5-year intervals. The program was used in an analysis of the health effects of airborne coal combustion effluents. Preliminary results are reported from a study of the influence of products of fossil fuel combustion on the spontaneous activity patterns and daily metabolic cycles of mice as a factor of age, environment, and genetic constitution. Preliminary results are reported from studies on the early and late effects of polycyclic hydrocarbons on the immune competence of mice. Studies to determine the risk to human populations from radionuclides released to the environment from nuclear energy facilities use relative toxicity and dose response data from laboratory animals of different body size and life span and comparisons of the effects of internal exposure with those of external exposure to fission neutrons or gamma sources

  8. Taking the Risk Out of Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    The ability to understand risks and have the right strategies in place when risky events occur is essential in the workplace. More and more organizations are being confronted with concerns over how to measure their risks or what kind of risks they can take when certain events transpire that could have a negative impact. NASA is one organization that faces these challenges on a daily basis, as effective risk management is critical to the success of its missions especially the Space Shuttle missions. On July 29, 1996, former NASA Administrator Daniel Goldin charged NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance with developing a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tool to support decisions on the funding of Space Shuttle upgrades. When issuing the directive, Goldin said, "Since I came to NASA [in 1992], we've spent billions of dollars on Shuttle upgrades without knowing how much they improve safety. I want a tool to help base upgrade decisions on risk." Work on the PRA tool began immediately. The resulting prototype, the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS) Version 1.0, was jointly developed by NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center, its Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, and researchers at the University of Maryland. QRAS software automatically expands the reliability logic models of systems to evaluate the probability of highly detrimental outcomes occurring in complex systems that are subject to potential accident scenarios. Even in its earliest forms, QRAS was used to begin PRA modeling of the Space Shuttle. In parallel, the development of QRAS continued, with the goal of making it a world-class tool, one that was especially suited to NASA s unique needs. From the beginning, an important conceptual goal in the development of QRAS was for it to help bridge the gap between the professional risk analyst and the design engineer. In the past, only the professional risk analyst could perform, modify, use, and perhaps even adequately understand PRA. NASA wanted

  9. Nuclear incident response in industrial areas: assessing the economic impact of the decision to evacuate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pauwels, N.; Walle, B. van de; Hardeman, F.; Sohier, A.; Soudan, K.

    1996-01-01

    The economic impact of imposing countermeasures in case of a nuclear emergency is a very important aspect in both the Probabilistic Risk Assessment code COSYMA and the Real-time On-line DecisiOn Support system RODOS. Therefore, these codes make use of the economic model ECONOM. In this paper, we will show that this economic model is not very well suited, nor designed, to predict the economic impact of evacuating a highly industrialised area in case of a nuclear emergency. Furthermore, we will indicate how recent economic investment theories can be used to deal with this decision problem in a more elaborate way. (author)

  10. Evolutionary leap in large-scale flood risk assessment needed

    OpenAIRE

    Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Bates, Paul D.; de Bruijn, Karin; Castellarin, Attilio; Kreibich, Heidi; Priest, Sally J.; Schröter, Kai; Bagli, Stefano; Blöschl, Günter; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Gouldby, Ben; Klijn, Frans; Lammersen, Rita; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Ridder, Nina

    2018-01-01

    Current approaches for assessing large-scale flood risks contravene the fundamental principles of the flood risk system functioning because they largely ignore basic interactions and feedbacks between atmosphere, catchments, river-floodplain systems and socio-economic processes. As a consequence, risk analyses are uncertain and might be biased. However, reliable risk estimates are required for prioritizing national investments in flood risk mitigation or for appraisal and management of insura...

  11. Competing risk theory and radiation risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1980-01-01

    New statistical procedures are applied to estimate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.), force of mortality, and latent period for radiation-induced malignancies. It is demonstrated that correction for competing risks influences the shape of dose response curves, estimates of the latent period, and of the risk from ionizing radiations. The equivalence of the following concepts is demonstrated: force of mortality, hazard rate, and age or time specific incidence. This equivalence makes it possible to use procedures from reliability analysis and demography for radiation risk assessment. Two methods used by reliability analysts - hazard plotting and total time on test plots - are discussed in some detail and applied to characterize the hazard rate in radiation carcinogenesis. C.d.f.'s with increasing, decreasing, or constant hazard rate have different shapes and are shown to yield different dose-response curves for continuous irradiation. Absolute risk is shown to be a sound estimator only if the force of mortality is constant for the exposed and the control group. Dose-response relationships that use the absolute risk as a measure for the effect turn out to be special cases of dose-response relationships that measure the effect with cumulative incidence. (H.K.)

  12. Caries risk assessment in children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Twetman, S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To summarise the findings of recent systematic reviews (SR) covering caries risk assessment in children, updated with recent primary studies. METHODS: A search for relevant papers published 2012-2014 was conducted in electronic databases. The systematic reviews were quality assessed...... displayed a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present summary of literature, it may be concluded: (1) a caries risk assessment should be carried out at the child's first dental visit and reassessments should be done during childhood (D); (2) multivariate models display a better accuracy than...... the use of single predictors and this is especially true for preschool children (C); (3) there is no clearly superior method to predict future caries and no evidence to support the use of one model, program, or technology before the other (C); and (4) the risk category should be linked to appropriate...

  13. The Economic Value of Predicting Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarno, Lucio; Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian

    the expectations hypothesis (EH) out-ofsample: the forecasts do not add economic value compared to using the average historical excess return as an EH-consistent estimate of constant risk premia. We show that in general statistical signicance does not necessarily translate into economic signicance because EH...... deviations mainly matter at short horizons and standard predictability metrics are not compatible with common measures of economic value. Overall, the EH remains the benchmark for investment decisions and should be considered an economic prior in models of bond risk premia.......This paper studies whether the evident statistical predictability of bond risk premia translates into economic gains for bond investors. We show that ane term structure models (ATSMs) estimated by jointly tting yields and bond excess returns capture this predictive information otherwise hidden...

  14. Risk assessment research and technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albach, H.; Schade, D.; Sinn, H.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts and approaches for technology assessment, the targets and scientific principles, as well as recognizable deficits and recommendations concerning purposeful strategies for the promotion of this research field require a dialog between those concerned. Conception, deficits, and the necessary measures for risk assessment research and technology assessment were discussed as well as ethical aspects. The problematic nature of using organisms altered through genetic engineering in the open land, traffic and transport, site restoration, nuclear energy, and isotope applications were subjects particularly dealt with. (DG) [de

  15. Risk assessment for transport operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, P.R.; Miles, J.C.

    1990-01-01

    The world-wide safety of the transport of radioactive material is based on the IAEA Transport Regulations. Risk assessment can provide quantitative data to help in the demonstration, understanding and improvement of the effectiveness of the Regulations in assuring safety. In this Paper the methodology, data and computer codes necessary and available for transport risk assessment are reviewed. Notable examples of assessments carried out over the past 15 years are briefly described along with current research, and the benefits and limitations of the techniques are discussed. (author)

  16. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamasi, Galileo, E-mail: g.tamasi@enac.rupa.i [Ente Nazionale per l' Aviazione Civile-Direzione Progetti, Studi e Ricerche, Via di Villa Ricotti, 42, 00161 Roma (Italy); Demichela, Micaela, E-mail: micaela.demichela@polito.i [SAfeR-Centro Studi su Sicurezza, Affidabilita e Rischi, Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino (Italy)

    2011-08-15

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  17. Risk assessment techniques for civil aviation security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamasi, Galileo; Demichela, Micaela

    2011-01-01

    Following the 9/11 terrorists attacks in New York a strong economical effort was made to improve and adapt aviation security, both in infrastructures as in airplanes. National and international guidelines were promptly developed with the objective of creating a security management system able to supervise the identification of risks and the definition and optimization of control measures. Risk assessment techniques are thus crucial in the above process, since an incorrect risk identification and quantification can strongly affect both the security level as the investments needed to reach it. The paper proposes a set of methodologies to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the risk in the security of civil aviation and the risk assessment process based on the threats, criticality and vulnerabilities concepts, highlighting their correlation in determining the level of risk. RAMS techniques are applied to the airport security system in order to analyze the protection equipment for critical facilities located in air-side, allowing also the estimation of the importance of the security improving measures vs. their effectiveness.

  18. Seismic Risk Assessment for the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Fourniadis, Yannis; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

    2017-04-01

    The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the most socially and economically dynamic countries in Central Asia, and one of the most endangered by earthquake hazard in the region. In order to support the government of the Kyrgyz Republic in the development of a country-level Disaster Risk Reduction strategy, a comprehensive seismic risk study has been developed with the support of the World Bank. As part of this project, state-of-the-art hazard, exposure and vulnerability models have been developed and combined into the assessment of direct physical and economic risk on residential, educational and transportation infrastructure. The seismic hazard has been modelled with three different approaches, in order to provide a comprehensive overview of the possible consequences. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) approach has been used to quantitatively evaluate the distribution of expected ground shaking intensity, as constrained by the compiled earthquake catalogue and associated seismic source model. A set of specific seismic scenarios based on events generated from known fault systems have been also considered, in order to provide insight on the expected consequences in case of strong events in proximity of densely inhabited areas. Furthermore, long-span catalogues of events have been generated stochastically and employed in the probabilistic analysis of expected losses over the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic. Damage and risk estimates have been computed by using an exposure model recently developed for the country, combined with the assignment of suitable fragility/vulnerability models. The risk estimation has been carried out with spatial aggregation at the district (rayon) level. The obtained results confirm the high level of seismic risk throughout the country, also pinpointing the location of several risk hotspots, particularly in the southern districts, in correspondence with the Ferghana valley. The outcome of this project will further support the local

  19. Social influences on risk attitudes : Applications in economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trautmann, S.T.; Vieider, F.M.; Roeser, S.; Hillerbrand, R.; Sandin, P.; Peterson, M.

    2012-01-01

    Economic research on risk attitudes has traditionally focused on individual decision-making issues, without any consideration for potential social influences on preferences. This has been changing rapidly over the last years, with economists often taking inspiration from earlier psychological

  20. (Non-) behavioral economics: a programmatic assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Güth, Werner

    2007-01-01

    Economic theory has evolved without paying proper attention to behavioral approaches, especially to social, economic, and cognitive psychology. This has recently changed by including behavioral economics courses in many doctoral study programs. Although this new development is most welcome, the typical topics of the behavioral economics courses are not truly behavioral. More specifically, we question whether neoclassical repairs or game fitting exercises as well as more or less mechanic adapt...

  1. Risk management in HIV/AIDS: ethical and economic issues ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk management in HIV/AIDS: ethical and economic issues associated with restricting HAART access only to adherent patients. ... Using the software TreeAge Pro 2009, we developed a Markov model to project economic outcomes for a hypothetical cohort of HIV/AIDS patients on HAART. The model compared two ...

  2. Monitoring of the risk of farmland abandonment as an efficient tool to assess the environmental and socio-economic impact of the Common Agriculture Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milenov, Pavel; Vassilev, Vassil; Vassileva, Anna; Radkov, Radko; Samoungi, Vessela; Dimitrov, Zlatomir; Vichev, Nikola

    2014-10-01

    Farmland abandonment (FLA) could be defined as the cessation of agricultural activities on a given surface of land (Pointereau et al., 2008). FLA, often associated with social and economic problems in rural areas, has significant environmental consequences. During the 1990s, millions of hectares of farmland in the new EU Member States, from Central and Eastern Europe, were abandoned as a result of the transition process from centralized and planned to market economy. The policy tools adopted gradually within the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union (EU CAP), as well as the EU environmental and structural policies, aimed to prevent further expansion of this phenomenon and to facilitate the revival of the agriculture land, being abandoned (ComReg 1122/2009). The Agri-Environment (AGRI-ENV) component of the Core Information Service (CIS), developed within the scope of the FP7-funded project "geoland2" were designed to support the agricultural user community at pan-European and national levels by contributing to the improvement of more accurate and timely monitoring of the status of agricultural land use in Europe and its change. The purpose of the product 'Farmland abandonment', as part of the AGRI-ENV package, is to detect potentially abandoned agriculture land, based on multi-annual SPOT data with several acquisitions per year. It provides essential independent information on the status of the agricultural land as recorded in the Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS), which is one of the core instruments of the implementation of CAP. The production line is based on object-based image analysis and benefits from the extensive availability of Biophysical parameters derived from the satellite data (geoland2). The method detects/tracks those land (or so-called reference) parcels in the LPIS, holding significant amount of land agriculture found as potentially abandoned. Reference parcels with such change are flagged and reported, enabling the National

  3. Causes and consequences of the sinkhole at El Trébol of Quito, Ecuador - implications for economic damage and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toulkeridis, Theofilos; Rodríguez, Fabián; Arias Jiménez, Nelson; Simón Baile, Débora; Salazar Martínez, Rodolfo; Addison, Aaron; Carreón Freyre, Dora; Mato, Fernando; Díaz Perez, Carmen

    2016-09-01

    The so-called El Trébol is a critical road interchange in Quito connecting the north and south regions of the city. In addition, it connects Quito with the highly populated Los Chillos Valley, one of the most traveled zones in the Ecuadorian capital. El Trébol was constructed in the late 1960s in order to resolve the traffic jams of the capital city and for that purpose the Machángara River was rerouted through an underground concrete box tunnel. In March 2008, the tunnel contained a high amount of discarded furniture that had been impacting the top portion of the tunnel, compromising the structural integrity. On 31 March 2008 after a heavy rainfall a sinkhole of great proportions formed in the Trébol traffic hub. In the first few minutes, the sinkhole reached an initial diameter of 30 m. The collapse continued to grow in the following days until the final dimensions of 120 m in diameter and some 40 m of depth, revealing the Machángara River at the base of the sinkhole.A state of emergency was declared. The cause of the sinkhole was a result of the lack of monitoring of the older subterranean infrastructure where trash had accumulated and damaged the concrete tunnel that channelized the Machángara River until it was worn away for a length of some 20 m, leaving behind the sinkhole and the fear of recurrence in populated areas.With the intent to understand the causes and consequences of this sinkhole event, rainfall data are shown together with hydrogeological characteristics and a view back to the recent history of sinkhole lineation or arrangement of the city of Quito. The economic impact is also emphasized, where the direct costs of the damage and the reconstruction are presented and compared to indirect costs associated with this socio-natural disaster. These analyses suggest that the costs of indirect financial damage, like time loss or delay, and subsequent higher expenses for different types of vehicles, are equivalent to many times the costs of the

  4. New method for assessing risks of email

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raja, Seyyed H.; Afrooz, Farzad

    2013-03-01

    E-mail technology, has become one of the requirements of human lives for correspondence between individuals. Given this, the important point is that the messages, server and client of e-mail and correspondences that exchanged between different people have acceptable security, to make people sure to use of this technology. In the information age, many of financial and non financial transactions are done electronically, data exchange takes place via the internet and theft and manipulation of data can make exorbitant cost in terms of integrity, financial, political, economic and culture. E-mail correspondence in there is same and it is very important. With review took place, a method that will focus on email system for risks assessment is not provided. We are examining ways of assessing for other systems and their strengths and weaknesses, then we use Mr Convery method for assessing email risks which it is for assessing network risks. At the end of paper we have offered special table for email risk assessment.

  5. Coronary Heart Disease Risk Factors in Young People of Differing Socio-Economic Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Non-Eleri; Cooper, Stephen-Mark; Williams, Simon P.; Baker, Julien S.; Davies, Bruce

    2005-01-01

    This study determined the prevalence of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors in young people of differing socio-economic status (SES). A cohort of 100 boys and 108 girls, aged 12.9, SD 0.3 years drawn of differing SES were assessed for CHD risk factors. Measurements included indices of obesity, blood pressure, aerobic fitness, diet, blood…

  6. Estimating mortality risk reduction and economic benefits from controlling ozone air pollution

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction Benefits from Decreasing Tropospheric Ozone Exposure

    2008-01-01

    ... in life expectancy, and to assess methods for estimating the monetary value of the reduced risk of premature death and increased life expectancy in the context of health-benefits analysis. Estimating Mortality Risk Reduction and Economic Benefits from Controlling Ozone Air Pollution details the committee's findings and posits several recommendations to address these issues.

  7. Risk assessment and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisk, D.J.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

  8. Risk assessment and the environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

    1992-07-01

    This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

  9. Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

  10. Risk aversion affects economic values of blue fox breeding scheme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peura, J; Kempe, R; Strandén, I; Rydhmer, L

    2016-12-01

    The profit and production of an average Finnish blue fox farm was simulated using a deterministic bio-economic farm model. Risk was included using Arrow-Prat absolute risk aversion coefficient and profit variance. Risk-rated economic values were calculated for pregnancy rate, litter loss, litter size, pelt size, pelt quality, pelt colour clarity, feed efficiency and eye infection. With high absolute risk aversion, economic values were lower than with low absolute risk aversion. Economic values were highest for litter loss (18.16 and 26.42 EUR), litter size (13.27 and 19.40 EUR), pregnancy (11.99 and 18.39 EUR) and eye infection (12.39 and 13.81 EUR). Sensitivity analysis showed that selection pressure for improved eye health depended strongly on proportion of culled animals among infected animals and much less on the proportion of infected animals. The economic value of feed efficiency was lower than expected (6.06 and 8.03 EUR). However, it was almost the same magnitude as pelt quality (7.30 and 7.30 EUR) and higher than the economic value of pelt size (3.37 and 5.26 EUR). Risk factors should be considered in blue fox breeding scheme because they change the relative importance of traits. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  11. Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Părăian Mihaela

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

  12. Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

  13. Nuclear power investment risk economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postula, F.D.; Houghton, W.J.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the economic model which was developed to evaluate the net costs incurred by an owner due to an accident induced outage at a nuclear power plant. During such an outage, the portion of the plant operating costs associated with power production are saved; however the owner faces a sizable expense as fossil fuels are burned as a substitute for power from the incapacitated nuclear plant. Additional expenses are incurred by the owner for plant repair and, if necessary, decontamination cost. The model makes provision for mitigating these costs by sales of power, property damage insurance payments, tax write-offs and increased rates

  14. Risk as economic category: systematics scientific approach and refinement contents

    OpenAIRE

    V.G. Vygovskyy

    2015-01-01

    The paper studies the categorical-conceptual apparatus of risk and its refinement based on a critical analysis of existing systematic scientific approaches. Determined that in the refinement of the economic nature of the risk of a number of controversial issues: the definition of the objective or subjective nature of risk; matching of concepts such as «risk», «danger», «loss», «probability of loss»; definition of negative or positive consequences of risk; identification of risk with its conse...

  15. Risk assessment for SAGD well blowouts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worth, D.; Alhanati, F.; Lastiwka, M. [C-FER Technologies, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Crepin, S. [Petrocedeno, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-10-15

    This paper discussed a steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) pilot project currently being conducted in Venezuela's Orinoco Belt. A risk assessment was conducted as part of the pilot program in order to evaluate the use of single barrier completions in conjunction with a blowout response plan. The study considered 3 options: (1) an isolated double barrier completion with a downhole safety valve (DHSV) in the production tubing string and a packer in the production casing annulus; (2) a partially isolated completion with no DHSV and a packer in the production casing annulus; and (3) an open single barrier completion with no additional downhole barriers. A reservoir model was used to assess the blowout flowing potential of SAGD well pairs. The probability of a blowout was estimated using fault tree analysis techniques. Risk was determined for various blowout scenarios, including blowouts during normal and workover operations, as well as blowouts through various flow paths. Total risk for each completion scenario was also determined at 3 different time periods within the production life of the well pair. The possible consequences of a blowout were assessed using quantitative consequence models. Results of the study showed that environmental and economic risks were much higher for the open completion technique. Higher risks were also associated with the earlier life of the completion strings. 20 refs., 3 tabs., 19 figs.

  16. Human reliability assessment and probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.; Lucas, D.A.

    1989-01-01

    Human reliability assessment (HRA) is used within Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to identify the human errors (both omission and commission) which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. There exist a variey of HRA techniques and the selection of an appropriate one is often difficult. This paper reviews a number of available HRA techniques and discusses their strengths and weaknesses. The techniques reviewed include: decompositional methods, time-reliability curves and systematic expert judgement techniques. (orig.)

  17. Environmental Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayramov, A. A.

    In this paper, various aspects of modern nanotechnologies and, as a result, risks of nanomaterials impact on an environment are considered. This very brief review of the First International Conference on Material and Information Sciences in High Technologies (2007, Baku, Azerbaijan) is given. The conference presented many reports that were devoted to nanotechnology in biology and business for the developing World, formation of charged nanoparticles for creation of functional nanostructures, nanoprocessing of carbon nanotubes, magnetic and optical properties of manganese-phosphorus nanowires, ultra-nanocrystalline diamond films, and nanophotonics communications in Azerbaijan. The mathematical methods of simulation of the group, individual and social risks are considered for the purpose of nanomaterials risk reduction and remediation. Lastly, we have conducted studies at a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials), located near Baku. Assessments have been conducted on the individual risk of person affection and constructed the map of equal isolines and zones of individual risk for a plant of polymeric materials (and nanomaterials).

  18. Probabilistic risk assessment: Number 219

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes a methodology for analyzing the safety of nuclear power plants. A historical overview of plants in the US is provided, and past, present, and future nuclear safety and risk assessment are discussed. A primer on nuclear power plants is provided with a discussion of pressurized water reactors (PWR) and boiling water reactors (BWR) and their operation and containment. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), utilizing both event-tree and fault-tree analysis, is discussed as a tool in reactor safety, decision making, and communications. (FI)

  19. Risk assessment using probabilistic standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avila, R.

    2004-01-01

    A core element of risk is uncertainty represented by plural outcomes and their likelihood. No risk exists if the future outcome is uniquely known and hence guaranteed. The probability that we will die some day is equal to 1, so there would be no fatal risk if sufficiently long time frame is assumed. Equally, rain risk does not exist if there was 100% assurance of rain tomorrow, although there would be other risks induced by the rain. In a formal sense, any risk exists if, and only if, more than one outcome is expected at a future time interval. In any practical risk assessment we have to deal with uncertainties associated with the possible outcomes. One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to be conservative in the assessments. For example, we may compare the maximal exposure to a radionuclide with a conservatively chosen reference value. In this case, if the exposure is below the reference value then it is possible to assure that the risk is low. Since single values are usually compared; this approach is commonly called 'deterministic'. Its main advantage lies in the simplicity and in that it requires minimum information. However, problems arise when the reference values are actually exceeded or might be exceeded, as in the case of potential exposures, and when the costs for realizing the reference values are high. In those cases, the lack of knowledge on the degree of conservatism involved impairs a rational weighing of the risks against other interests. In this presentation we will outline an approach for dealing with uncertainties that in our opinion is more consistent. We will call it a 'fully probabilistic risk assessment'. The essence of this approach consists in measuring the risk in terms of probabilities, where the later are obtained from comparison of two probabilistic distributions, one reflecting the uncertainties in the outcomes and one reflecting the uncertainties in the reference value (standard) used for defining adverse outcomes. Our first aim

  20. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  1. Assessment report on NRP sub-theme 'Risk Analysis'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biesiot, W.; Hendrickx, L.; Olsthoorn, A.A.

    1995-01-01

    An overview and assessment are presented of the three research projects carried out under NRP funding that concern risk-related topics: (1) The risks of nonlinear climate changes, (2) Socio-economic and policy aspects of changes in incidence and intensity of extreme (weather) events, and (3) Characterizing the risks: a comparative analysis of the risks of global warming and of relevant policy strategies. 1 tab., 6 refs

  2. Subthalamic Neural Activity Patterns Anticipate Economic Risk Decisions in Gambling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, M.; Carpaneto, J.; Priori, A.

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Economic decision-making is disrupted in individuals with gambling disorder, an addictive behavior observed in Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients receiving dopaminergic therapy. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is involved in the inhibition of impulsive behaviors; however, its role in impulse control disorders and addiction is still unclear. Here, we recorded STN local field potentials (LFPs) in PD patients with and without gambling disorder during an economic decision-making task. Reaction times analysis showed that for all patients, the decision whether to risk preceded task onset. We compared then for both groups the STN LFP preceding high- and low-risk economic decisions. We found that risk avoidance in gamblers correlated with larger STN LFP low-frequency (gambling disorder were instead not correlated with pretask STN LFP. Our results suggest that STN activity preceding task onset affects risk decisions by preemptively inhibiting attraction to high but unlikely rewards in favor of a long-term payoff. PMID:29445770

  3. Subthalamic Neural Activity Patterns Anticipate Economic Risk Decisions in Gambling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzoni, A; Rosa, M; Carpaneto, J; Romito, L M; Priori, A; Micera, S

    2018-01-01

    Economic decision-making is disrupted in individuals with gambling disorder, an addictive behavior observed in Parkinson's disease (PD) patients receiving dopaminergic therapy. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is involved in the inhibition of impulsive behaviors; however, its role in impulse control disorders and addiction is still unclear. Here, we recorded STN local field potentials (LFPs) in PD patients with and without gambling disorder during an economic decision-making task. Reaction times analysis showed that for all patients, the decision whether to risk preceded task onset. We compared then for both groups the STN LFP preceding high- and low-risk economic decisions. We found that risk avoidance in gamblers correlated with larger STN LFP low-frequency (gambling disorder were instead not correlated with pretask STN LFP. Our results suggest that STN activity preceding task onset affects risk decisions by preemptively inhibiting attraction to high but unlikely rewards in favor of a long-term payoff.

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrick, B.J.

    1982-01-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

  5. Methodology for technical risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waganer, L.M.; Zuckerman, D.S.

    1983-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for and applied to the assessment of the technical risks associated with an evolving technology. This methodology, originally developed for fusion by K. W. Billman and F. R. Scott at EPRI, has been applied to assess the technical risk of a fuel system for a fusion reactor. Technical risk is defined as the risk that a particular technology or component which is currently under development will not achieve a set of required technical specifications (i.e. probability of failure). The individual steps in the technical risk assessment are summarized. The first step in this methodology is to clearly and completely quantify the technical requirements for the particular system being examined. The next step is to identify and define subsystems and various options which appear capable of achieving the required technical performance. The subsystem options are then characterized regarding subsystem functions, interface requirements with the subsystems and systems, important components, developmental obstacles and technical limitations. Key technical subsystem performance parameters are identified which directly or indirectly relate to the system technical specifications. Past, existing and future technical performance data from subsystem experts are obtained by using a Bayesian Interrogation technique. The input data is solicited in the form of probability functions. Thus the output performance of the system is expressed as probability functions

  6. Economic impacts assessment of pleuropneumonia burden and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is a trans-boundary infectious and contagious respiratory disease of cattle caused by Mycoplasma mycoides subsp. mycoides. It is a disease of high economic importance because of its ability to compromise food security. Information on its economic burden in pastoral cattle ...

  7. Ecological risk assessment: Lessons learned?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This conference was held November 14--18, 1993 in Houston, Texas for the purpose of providing a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information on ecological risk assessment. This book is comprised of the abstracts of the presentations at this symposium. Individual abstracts have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases

  8. Where You Live: Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Where you live page shows visitors to the risk assessment website how to contact their local regional office by state. Since these link to pages maintained by the local offices they will have the most up-to-date contact information.

  9. Socio-economic status of Ghanians of Subsaharan Africa assessed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Socio-economic status of Ghanians of Subsaharan Africa assessed by subjective perception as against objective criteria: methodological considerations. The Mamprobi (Ghana) Cardiovascular Helath Programme 1975-1980.

  10. Introduction to economic assessment - part 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Ann; Sin, Chih Hoong

    2014-07-01

    This is the second in a series of four continuing professional development articles that explain some of the principles of economic assessment (EA) and describe how they may be applied in practice by front line practitioners leading service innovations. It introduces a methodology, with associated tools and templates, that has been used by practising nurses to conduct EAs. Our purpose is to equip readers with the knowledge to develop a technically competent, pragmatic EA that will contribute towards evidence-informed decision making and assure the best use of limited resources. If you have not already read the first article in this series ( McMahon and Sin 2013), we strongly advise you to do so as each article purposefully draws and builds on those that have gone before. The time out exercises in the first article required you to access source material located on the RCN website and identify a service innovation in your workplace. The time out exercises in this article draw in these same sources. We begin this article by recapping on the points covered in the first article before exploring the implications of the principles of EA and how to apply them in practice. In this article, we refer to and draw on a companion article published in this edition of Nursing Management ( pages 38-41) that sets out the most commonly cited approaches to EA in health and social care. We aim to enable readers, along with those they seek to influence, to make an informed decision as to what may be an appropriate EA approach in any specific context.

  11. An approach to risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, L.; Lund, S. P.; Hass, Ulla

    1998-01-01

    of Ministers with the task to propose criteria for neurotoxicity. Functional effects on the nervous system, such as reduction in memory and learning ability, decrease in attention, and alteration of behavior due to toxic chemicals in the environment is now being acknowledged as an important public health...... indicate that numerous persons are exposed in the working as well as in the general environment to several chemicals, for which almost no data on the effect on subtle neurophysiological functions are available. Development of an approach to risk assessment dealing with this problem is a major challenge...... in the nineties. Different approaches to risk assessment are discussed, the quality of the databases available for hazard assessment are evaluated, and the needs for further research are identified. (C) 1996 Intox Press, Inc....

  12. Can we (actually) assess global risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2013-04-01

    The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much

  13. Risk-premia, Carry-trade Dynamics, and Economic Value of Currency Speculation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Christian

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we derive the dynamics and assess the economic value of currency speculation by formalizing the concept of a trader inaction range. We show that exchange rate returns comprise a time-varying risk-premium and that uncovered interest parity (UIP) holds in a speculative sense. The often......-cited ‘forward bias puzzle’ originates from the omission of the risk-premium in standard UIP tests. Consistent with its popularity among market professionals, the carry-trade strategy can be rationalized as it systematically collects risk-premia, however, the economic value generated by bilateral carry-trades...

  14. 24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

  15. Risk assessment of radiation carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Michiaki

    2012-01-01

    This commentary describes the radiation cancer risk assessed by international organizations other than ICRP, assessed for radon and for internal exposure, in the series from the aspect of radiation protection of explaining the assessments done until ICRP Pub. 103. Statistic significant increase of cancer formation is proved at higher doses than 100-200 mSv. At lower doses, with use of mathematical model, United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) reported the death probability due to the excess lifetime risk (ELR) at 100 mSv of 0.36-0.77% for solid tumors and 0.03-0.05% for leukemia, and NRC in US, the risk of exposure-induced prevalence and death (REID) per 100 thousands persons of 800 (male)/1,310 (female) and 410/610, respectively. Both are essentially based on findings in A-bomb survivors. The assessment for Rn is described here not on dose. UK and US analyses of pooled raw data in case control studies revealed the significant increase of lung cancer formation at as low level as 100 Bq Rn/m3. Their analyses also showed the significance of smoking, which had been realized as a confounding factor in risk analysis of Rn for uranium miners. The death probability until the age of 85 y was found to be 1.2 x 10 -4 in non-smokers and 24 x 10 -4 in smokers/ Working Level Month (WLM). Increased thyroid cancer incidence has been known in Chernobyl Accident, which is realized as a result of internal exposure of radioiodine; however, the relationship between the internal dose to thyroid and its cancer prevalence resembles that in the case of external exposure. There is no certain evidence against the concept that risk of internal exposure is similar to and/or lower than, the external one although assessment of the internal exposure risk accompanies uncertainty depending on the used model and ingested dose. International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommendations hitherto have been important and precious despite

  16. Performance assessment - risk assessment vive la differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitschke, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    In the sister worlds of radioactive waste management disposal and environmental restoration, there are two similar processes and computational approaches for determining the acceptability of the proposed activities. While similar, these two techniques can lead to confusion and misunderstanding if the differences are not recognized and appreciated. In the case of radioactive waste management, the performance assessment process is used to determine compliance with certain prescribed 'performance objectives'. These objectives are designed to ensure that the disposal of radioactive (high-level, low-level, and/or transuranic) waste will be protective of human health and the environment. The environmental link is primarily through assuring protection of the groundwater as a resource. In the case of environmental restoration, the risk assessment process is used to determine the proper remedial action response, if any, for a past hazardous waste release. The process compares the 'no action' or 'leave as is' option with both carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic values for human health to determine the need for any action and to help to help determine just what the appropriate action would need to be. The impacts to the ecological system are evaluated in a slightly, different but similar fashion. Now the common objectives between these two processes notwithstanding. There are some key and fundamental differences that need to be answered that make direct comparisons or a common approach inappropriate. Failure to recognize this can lead to confusion and misunderstanding. This can be particularly problematic when one is faced with an active disposal facility located within the boundaries of an environmental restoration site as is the case at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Through a critical evaluation of the performance assessment and risk assessment processes, highlighting both similarities and differences, it is hoped that greater understanding and appreciation

  17. Risks and benefits in health care: the view from economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauly, Mark V

    2007-01-01

    This paper discusses the meaning of the term risk from the economic perspective. It argues that some consumer decisions about insurance and the use of medical care are consistent with the economic model, but many are not. When decisions are inconsistent, real-world democratic governments' ability to intervene is limited by politicians' desire to please voters. The choice of incomplete insurance coverage in private markets is often said to present a case for governmental intervention, but the choice of insurance design in the Medicare drug benefit shows that the political process also may fail to select insurance that is optimal from an economic viewpoint.

  18. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

    2017-01-01

    The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

  19. Methodology of Economic Assessment of Corporate Finance Management Effectiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Juscu Nicolae Cristian

    2011-01-01

    “The methodology of economic assessment of corporate finance management effectiveness” deals with the analysis of the basic issues of economic aspects of corporate finance management effectiveness; the paper presents the essential issues of the existing methods for establishing the economic effectiveness of corporate finance management and control; it also proposes the improvement of the approach regarding the assessment of finance management effectiveness of a company.

  20. Risk assessment and societal choices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otway, H J

    1975-02-15

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  1. Risk assessment and societal choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are presented and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the Joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported. (author)

  2. Fire Risk Assessment in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, H. P.

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative fire risk assessment can serve as an additional tool to assess the safety level of a nuclear power plant (NPP) and to set priorities for fire protection improvement measures. The recommended approach to be applied within periodic safety reviews of NPPs in Germany starts with a screening process providing critical fire zones in which a fully developed fire has the potential to both cause an initiating event and impair the function of at least one component or system critical to safety. The second step is to perform a quantitative analysis using a standard event tree has been developed with elements for fire initiation, ventilation of the room, fire detection, fire suppression, and fire propagation. In a final step, the fire induced frequency of initiating events, the main contributors and the calculated hazard state frequency for the fire event are determined. Results of the first quantitative fire risk studies performed in Germany are reported. (author)

  3. Hydrocarbons pipeline transportation risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, A. V.; Milke, A. A.; Kvasov, I. N.

    2018-04-01

    The pipeline transportation applying risks assessment issue in the arctic conditions is addressed in the paper. Pipeline quality characteristics in the given environment has been assessed. To achieve the stated objective, the pipelines mathematical model was designed and visualized by using the software product SOLIDWORKS. When developing the mathematical model the obtained results made possible to define the pipeline optimal characteristics for designing on the Arctic sea bottom. In the course of conducting the research the pipe avalanche collapse risks were examined, internal longitudinal and circular loads acting on the pipeline were analyzed, as well as the water impact hydrodynamic force was taken into consideration. The conducted calculation can contribute to the pipeline transport further development under the harsh climate conditions of the Russian Federation Arctic shelf territory.

  4. Managing Entrepreneurial Risks under Conditions of Instability of Economic Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroshnichenko Yurii V.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the state of an organisation under modern conditions of establishment of new competitive relations between subjects of economic activity and transition to the model of market economy, justifies urgency of studies devoted to methods of entrepreneurial risk management. The article analyses factors that influence the risk level and offers own definition of this category. The article sets the task of improvement of the systemised classification of entrepreneurial risk management methods. In the result of the conducted analysis, the authors offered an improved systemised classification of risk management methods and justifies efficiency of its use.

  5. Conditional economic incentives for reducing HIV risk behaviors: integration of psychology and behavioral economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Operario, Don; Kuo, Caroline; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G; Gálarraga, Omar

    2013-09-01

    This article reviews psychology and behavioral economic approaches to HIV prevention, and examines the integration and application of these approaches in conditional economic incentive (CEI) programs for reducing HIV risk behavior. We discuss the history of HIV prevention approaches, highlighting the important insights and limitations of psychological theories. We provide an overview of the theoretical tenets of behavioral economics that are relevant to HIV prevention, and utilize CEIs as an illustrative example of how traditional psychological theories and behavioral economics can be combined into new approaches for HIV prevention. Behavioral economic interventions can complement psychological frameworks for reducing HIV risk by introducing unique theoretical understandings about the conditions under which risky decisions are amenable to intervention. Findings from illustrative CEI programs show mixed but generally promising effects of economic interventions on HIV and sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence, HIV testing, HIV medication adherence, and drug use. CEI programs can complement psychological interventions for HIV prevention and behavioral risk reduction. To maximize program effectiveness, CEI programs must be designed according to contextual and population-specific factors that may determine intervention applicability and success. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  6. Conditional Economic Incentives for Reducing HIV Risk Behaviors: Integration of Psychology and Behavioral Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Operario, Don; Kuo, Caroline C.; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.; Gálarraga, Omar

    2014-01-01

    Objective This paper reviews psychology and behavioral economic approaches to HIV prevention, and examines the integration and application of these approaches in conditional economic incentive (CEI) programs for reducing HIV risk behavior. Methods We discuss the history of HIV prevention approaches, highlighting the important insights and limitations of psychological theories. We provide an overview of the theoretical tenets of behavioral economics that are relevant to HIV prevention, and utilize CEIs as an illustrative example of how traditional psychological theories end behavioral economics can be combined into new approaches for HIV prevention. Results Behavioral economic interventions can complement psychological frameworks for reducing HIV risk by introducing unique theoretical understandings about the conditions under which risky decisions are amenable to intervention. Findings from illustrative CEI programs show mixed but generally promising effects of economic interventions on HIV and STI prevalence, HIV testing, HIV medication adherence, and drug use. Conclusion CEI programs can complement psychological interventions for HIV prevention and behavioral risk reduction. To maximize program effectiveness, CEI programs must be designed according to contextual and population-specific factors that may determine intervention applicability and success. PMID:24001243

  7. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1980-08-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment of HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, K.N.; Houghton, W.J.; Hannaman, G.W.; Joksimovic, V.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment methods have been applied to gas-cooled reactors for more than a decade and to HTGRs for more than six years in the programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy. Significant advancements to the development of PRA methodology in these programs are summarized as are the specific applications of the methods to HTGRs. Emphasis here is on PRA as a tool for evaluating HTGR design options. Current work and future directions are also discussed. (author)

  9. Economic assessment of plutonium recycle to LWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-02-01

    This paper presents an economic evaluation of plutonium recycle in LWR's using published estimates of the cost of the various fuel cycle operations. Total, discounted and levelized fuel cycle costs are computed for four national nuclear power growth pattern scenarios; ''super large'' (>100GW(e) by 2000), ''large'' (60-70GW(e) by 2000) ''medium'' (20-25 GW(e) by 2000) and ''small'' (5-10GW(e) by 2000). It is concluded that in the ''super-large'' and ''large'' cases recycle of uranium and plutonium would have a slight economic advantage over the once-through cycle. In the ''medium'' and ''small'' cases there would be no economic advantage up to the year 2000. The uncertainty in unit fuel cycle costs is large compared with the differences between the two fuel cycles and different conclusions can easily be drawn based on different unit cost assumptions

  10. Risk Assessment of Shellfish Toxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rex Munday

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Complex secondary metabolites, some of which are highly toxic to mammals, are produced by many marine organisms. Some of these organisms are important food sources for marine animals and, when ingested, the toxins that they produce may be absorbed and stored in the tissues of the predators, which then become toxic to animals higher up the food chain. This is a particular problem with shellfish, and many cases of poisoning are reported in shellfish consumers each year. At present, there is no practicable means of preventing uptake of the toxins by shellfish or of removing them after harvesting. Assessment of the risk posed by such toxins is therefore required in order to determine levels that are unlikely to cause adverse effects in humans and to permit the establishment of regulatory limits in shellfish for human consumption. In the present review, the basic principles of risk assessment are described, and the progress made toward robust risk assessment of seafood toxins is discussed. While good progress has been made, it is clear that further toxicological studies are required before this goal is fully achieved.

  11. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  12. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  13. HTGR containment design options: an application of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-08-01

    Through the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), it is possible to quantitatively evaluate the radiological risk associated with a given reactor design and to place such risk into perspective with alternative designs. The merits are discussed for several containment alternatives for the HTGR from the viewpoints of economics and licensability, as well as public risk. The quantification of cost savings and public risk indicates that presently acceptable public risk can be maintained and cost savings of $40 million can result from use of a vented confinement for the HTGR

  14. Clinical and economic outcomes assessment in nuclear cardiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaw, L.J.; Miller, D.D.; Berman, D.S.; Hachamovitch, R.

    2000-01-01

    The future of nuclear medicine procedures, as understood within our current economic climate, depends upon its ability to provide relevant clinical information at similar or lower comparative costs. With an ever-increasing emphasis on cost containment, outcome assessment forms the basis of preserving the quality of patient care. Today, outcomes assessment encompasses a wide array of subjects including clinical, economic, and humanistic (i.e., quality of life) outcomes. For nuclear cardiology, evidence-based medicine would require a threshold level of evidence in order to justify the added cost of any test in a patient's work-up. This evidence would include large multicenter, observational series as well as randomized trial data in sufficiently large and diverse patient populations. The new movement in evidence-based medicine is also being applied to the introduction of new technologies, in particular when comparative modalities exist. In the past 5 years, it has seen a dramatic shift in the quality of outcomes data published in nuclear cardiology. This includes the use of statistically rigorous risk-adjusted techniques as well as large populations (i.e., >500 patients) representing multiple diverse medical care settings. This has been the direct result of the development of multiple outcomes databases that have now amassed thousands of patients worth of data. One of the benefits of examining outcomes in large patient datasets is the ability to assess individual endpoints (e.g., cardiac death) as compared with smaller datasets that often assess combined endpoints (e.g., death, myocardial infarction, or unstable angina). New technologies for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease have contributed to the rising costs of care. In the United States and in Europe, costs of care have risen dramatically, consuming an ever-increasing amount of available resources. The overuse of diagnostic angiography often leads to unnecessary revascularization that does not lead to

  15. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

  16. Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

  17. Total cardiovascular disease risk assessment: a review.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cooney, Marie Therese

    2011-09-01

    The high risk strategy for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires an assessment of an individual\\'s total CVD risk so that the most intensive risk factor management can be directed towards those at highest risk. Here we review developments in the assessment and estimation of total CVD risk.

  18. Transparent Global Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Pinho, Rui; Crowley, Helen

    2013-04-01

    Vulnerability to earthquakes is increasing, yet advanced reliable risk assessment tools and data are inaccessible to most, despite being a critical basis for managing risk. Also, there are few, if any, global standards that allow us to compare risk between various locations. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange, and leverages the knowledge of leading experts for the benefit of society. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe is key to assessing risk more effectively. Through global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are collaboratively developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. Guided by the needs and experiences of governments, companies and citizens at large, they work in continuous interaction with the wider community. A continuously expanding public-private partnership constitutes the GEM Foundation, which drives the collaborative GEM effort. An integrated and holistic approach to risk is key to GEM's risk assessment platform, OpenQuake, that integrates all above-mentioned contributions and will become available towards the end of 2014. Stakeholders worldwide will be able to calculate, visualise and investigate earthquake risk, capture new data and to share their findings for joint learning. Homogenized information on hazard can be combined with data on exposure (buildings, population) and data on their vulnerability, for loss assessment around the globe. Furthermore, for a true integrated view of seismic risk, users can add social vulnerability and resilience indices to maps and estimate the costs and benefits

  19. Economic valuation of acidic deposition damages: Preliminary results from the 1985 NAPAP [National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program] damage assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callaway, J.M.; Darwin, R.F.; Nesse, R.J.

    1985-01-01

    This paper identifies methods used to evaluate the economic damages of acid deposition in the 1985 Damage Assessment being coordinated by the National Acid Precipitation Program. It also presents the preliminary estimates of economic damages for the Assessment. Economic damages are estimated for four effect areas: commercial agriculture and forests, recreational fishing and selected types of materials. In all but the last area, methods are used which incorporate the behavioral responses of individuals and firms or simulated physical damages to resources at risk. The preliminary nature of the estimated damages in each area is emphasized. Over all, the damage estimates should be interpreted with caution. 44 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs

  20. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

  1. Risk communication and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petts, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to provide a broad context for consideration of appropriate risk communication approaches. It examines the basis of public concerns and in particular the non-risk dimensions. The latter are so important in any risk decision that means of communication which can deal with them are required which extend beyond understanding how to present risk estimates. These means relate to (a) the decision processes themselves and the extent to which they provide for involvement of the public in decisions, (b) the communication skills of experts, and (c) the robustness of the risk information which is available. (Author)

  2. Liability for Unknown Risks: A Law and Economics Perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Faure (Michael); L.T. Visscher (Louis); F. Weber (Franziska)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractIn the law and economics literature liability is generally regarded as an instrument which provides potential tortfeasors with incentives for optimal care taking. The question, however, arises whether liability can still provide those incentives when risks are unknown. That is the

  3. Incorporating risk in the economic evaluation of road infrastructure projects

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schutte, IC

    2009-05-26

    Full Text Available credibility to the process and ensure strategic decisions that are more defendable. In this study, a prosedure for incorporating risk is suggested. It involves the identification of inputs critical to the economic success of the project, the quantification...

  4. Socio-economic status, risk factors and coronary heart disease ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The relationship of socio-economic status (SES) indicators and coronary risk factors (RFs) with coronary heart disease (CHD) prevalence was examined in 5620 subjects aged 20 ... The SES indicators had Iitlle or no independent effect on CHD prevalence in multivariate logistic analyses after, inclusion of the standard RFs.

  5. A method to estimate expected fatalities and economic loss of buildings in an urban environment as a step toward tsunami risk assessment: an application to the city of Siracusa, Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pagnoni, Gianluca; Accorsi, Eleonora; Tinti, Stefano

    2016-04-01

    Siracusa, an important city of the south-east Sicily, is located in an area highly exposed to the danger of tsunami, local and remote. Among the many events that affected this area those with a major effect are the AD 365 tsunami generated by an earthquake in the Western Hellenic Arc, the event of 11 January 1693, following an earthquake in the area of Augusta, and the tsunami of 28 December 1908 generated in the Messina strait. The aim of this study is to evaluate the number of exposed people and of fatalities as well as the type of damage to constructions and the associated loss of economic value in case of a tsunami, based on a simple tsunami scenario, i.e. on assuming a uniform inundation level of 5 m. This figure is considered appropriate for this preliminary tsunami loss analysis since it is compatible with historical tsunami observations and is also supported by recent tsunami hazard studies carried out for this area (Armigliato et al., 2015). The main physical tsunami parameter used in computations is the water column, which is merely the difference between the assumed inundation level and the topographic altitude. We use numerical geo-referenced 1:2000 maps providing a database of constructions in the area of Siracusa together with data from national and local statistical institutions to make estimates on the number and type of buildings and on the number of people that may be found in the inundation area in different periods of the year, discriminating between residents and tourists. Using a variant of the Terrier et al. (2012) table and tsunami mortality curves proposed by Koshimura et al. (2009) we are able to estimate expected fatalities with tsunami inundation reaching at most the first floor of buildings. We calculate economic loss by taking into account both residential buildings and commercial-industrial structures and data from the real estate market. This study is funded by the EU Project ASTARTE - "Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for

  6. Molecular radiobiology and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgieva, R.

    2009-01-01

    Full text: Attitudes towards the radiation protection standards on in Europe and the world largely depends on scientific knowledge, periodically published by the United Nations Scientific Committee (UNSCEAR) and the recommendations of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP), which also comply with the research. The new scientific evidence by conducting an additional research is a crucial element in the process of protection of people, workers and patients in medicine from the adverse health effects. Although these standards are clear and easy to apply, there is serious doubt from a scientific perspective about the level of health risk at low doses, which keep up a fierce debate, both eight scientific and political society. The answer to this question requires the integrated efforts of many scientific disciplines. Increasingly rapid advances in biological and medical knowledge provide the necessary conditions for achieving this aim. This lecture tries to shed light on the current state of knowledge, the main unresolved problems in science in the context of radiation protection and risk assessment, and on those lines of research that have the greatest potential to address the issues. They mainly concern issues of doses and biological effects of different types of ionisation radiation, biological effects in cells/tissues which initiate health effects at low doses, individual variability and direct health risk assessment by epidemiological studies of groups exposed to lower doses irradiation

  7. Economic risk analysis and critical comparison of optimal biorefinery concepts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheali, Peam; Posada, John A.; Gernaey, Krist

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, eight optimal biorefinery concepts for biofuels and biochemicals production are critically analyzed and compared in terms of their techno-economic performance and associated economic risks against historical market fluctuations. The investigated biorefinery concepts consider...... different combinations of biomass feedstock (lignocellulosic versus algal) and conversion technologies (biochemical versus thermochemical). In addition, the economic performance of each biorefinery concept is tested assuming a sudden drop in oil prices in order to compare the fitness/survival of each...... concept under extreme market disturbances. The analyses reveal amongst others that: (i) lignocellulosic bioethanol production is not economically feasible considering a drop in oil prices (a negative internal rate of return); (ii) a multi-product biorefinery concept, where bioethanol is upgraded to higher...

  8. The Economic Value of Predicting Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sarno, Lucio; Schneider, Paul; Wagner, Christian

    2016-01-01

    evaluation. More specifically, the model mostly generates positive (negative) economic value during times of high (low) macroeconomic uncertainty. Overall, the expectations hypothesis remains a useful benchmark for investment decisions in bond markets, especially in low uncertainty states.......This paper studies whether the evident statistical predictability of bond risk premia translates into economic gains for investors. We propose a novel estimation strategy for affine term structure models that jointly fits yields and bond excess returns, thereby capturing predictive information...... otherwise hidden to standard estimations. The model predicts excess returns with high regression R2s and high forecast accuracy but cannot outperform the expectations hypothesis out-of-sample in terms of economic value, showing a general contrast between statistical and economic metrics of forecast...

  9. Economic impact of land finance and subsequent risk response

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lü Wei; Xu Hongwei

    2014-01-01

    In China,land finance is actually an endogenous factor in economic growth.As a kind of nontraditional,informal government revenue in China's economic transition process,land finance is unstable,non-standard and unsustainable,and it simultaneously makes the current land-finance dependent growth mode difficult to maintain.The paper firstly analyzes the impact of the land finance on China's economic growth and economic structure change followed by discussing the possible risks in post-"land finance" period.It then put forward some suggestions to deal with the problem.The analysis shows that land finance exacerbates the economic fluctuation,bringing in the increase of government public expenditure and economic growth in the short term.Nonetheless,in the long term there is no significant effect,and it could gradually lead to a more unreasonable economic structure.In the post-"land finance" period,if we do not take precautions in advance,it will restrain the sustainable development of China's economy and society.

  10. Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising

  11. Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palley, Paul D; Parcero, Miriam E

    2016-10-01

    A review of literature in the calendar year 2015 dedicated to environmental policies and sustainable development, and economic policies. This review is divided into these sections: sustainable development, irrigation, ecosystems and water management, climate change and disaster risk management, economic growth, water supply policies, water consumption, water price regulation, and water price valuation.

  12. The Risks of Strategic Decisions in the Sphere of Financial and Economic Security of Public-Private Partnership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solodovnik Olesia O.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying and substantiating the theoretical and methodological aspects of development, analysis and assessment of strategic decisions in the sphere of financial and economic security of public-private partnership (PPP in the context of the risks of their implementation. A study on the essence and characteristics of strategic decisions in the sphere of financial and economic security of PPP has led to the conclusion that each such decision should be considered and assessed in the context of the risks of its implementation, and the risk theory could be seen as the scientific basis for defining strategic alternatives and developing a criteria base for assessing them. The article proposes a list and systematization of the PPP risks that allow to: itemize the risks to the external and internal environment of PPP and to identify the prerequisites and sources of threats to the financial and economic interests of parties to the partnership; analyze and evaluate the strategic alternatives for risk distribution among partners in the context of implications for financial and economic security of PPP; determine the risks of achieving the objectives of the strategy for financial and economic security of PPP and to evaluate alternative strategies in terms of partners; account the potential occurrence and development of systemic risks and threats to the financial and economic security of PPP, as well as the use of complementary protective mechanisms; evaluate the results of a strategy to protect the financial and economic interests of parties to the PPP.

  13. Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, P.B.

    1980-01-01

    The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

  14. Tsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily - Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grezio, A.; Gasparini, P.; Marzocchi, W.; Patera, A.; Tinti, S.

    2012-01-01

    We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.

  15. Metabolic state alters economic decision making under risk in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mkael Symmonds

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores. Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry, and safe (less variable food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans.We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake, and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves. We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively.We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that this sensitivity in human risk-preference to current metabolic state has

  16. An economic assessment of contemporary kidney transplant practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Axelrod, David A; Schnitzler, Mark A; Xiao, Huiling; Irish, William; Tuttle-Newhall, Elizabeth; Chang, Su-Hsin; Kasiske, Bertram L; Alhamad, Tarek; Lentine, Krista L

    2018-05-01

    Kidney transplantation is the optimal therapy for end-stage renal disease, prolonging survival and reducing spending. Prior economic analyses of kidney transplantation, using Markov models, have generally assumed compatible, low-risk donors. The economic implications of transplantation with high Kidney Donor Profile Index (KDPI) deceased donors, ABO incompatible living donors, and HLA incompatible living donors have not been assessed. The costs of transplantation and dialysis were compared with the use of discrete event simulation over a 10-year period, with data from the United States Renal Data System, University HealthSystem Consortium, and literature review. Graft failure rates and expenditures were adjusted for donor characteristics. All transplantation options were associated with improved survival compared with dialysis (transplantation: 5.20-6.34 quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] vs dialysis: 4.03 QALYs). Living donor and low-KDPI deceased donor transplantations were cost-saving compared with dialysis, while transplantations using high-KDPI deceased donor, ABO-incompatible or HLA-incompatible living donors were cost-effective (<$100 000 per QALY). Predicted costs per QALY range from $39 939 for HLA-compatible living donor transplantation to $80 486 for HLA-incompatible donors compared with $72 476 for dialysis. In conclusion, kidney transplantation is cost-effective across all donor types despite higher costs for marginal organs and innovative living donor practices. © 2018 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  17. Assessing sufficient capability: A new approach to economic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Paul Mark; Roberts, Tracy E; Barton, Pelham M; Coast, Joanna

    2015-08-01

    Amartya Sen's capability approach has been discussed widely in the health economics discipline. Although measures have been developed to assess capability in economic evaluation, there has been much less attention paid to the decision rules that might be applied alongside. Here, new methods, drawing on the multidimensional poverty and health economics literature, are developed for conducting economic evaluation within the capability approach and focusing on an objective of achieving "sufficient capability". This objective more closely reflects the concern with equity that pervades the capability approach and the method has the advantage of retaining the longitudinal aspect of estimating outcome that is associated with quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), whilst also drawing on notions of shortfall associated with assessments of poverty. Economic evaluation from this perspective is illustrated in an osteoarthritis patient group undergoing joint replacement, with capability wellbeing assessed using ICECAP-O. Recommendations for taking the sufficient capability approach forward are provided. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Risk assessment terminology: risk communication part 1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano Liuzzo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes the terminology of risk communication in the view of food safety: the theory of stakeholders, the citizens’ involvement and the community interest and consultation are reported. Different aspects of risk communication (public communication, scientific uncertainty, trust, care, consensus and crisis communication are discussed.

  19. Study on the water related disaster risks using the future socio-economic scenario in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiguchi, M.; Hatono, M.; Ikeuchi, H.; Nakamura, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, flood risks in the present and the end of the 21st century in Asia are estimated using a future socio-economic scenario. Using the runoff data of 7 GCMs (RCP 8.5) of CMIP5, the river discharge, inundation area, and inundation depth are calculated for the assessment of flood risk. Finally, the flood risk is estimated using a function of damage. The flood frequency in the end of the 21st century in Asia tends to increase. Inundation area in Japan, Taiwan, and Kyrgyz is almost unchanged. At the same time, that in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Laos, and Myanmar reached about 1.4-1.6 times compared to present. Damage cost is largely influenced by economic growth, however, we show that it is important that we distinguish the influence of climate change from economic development and evaluate it when we think about an adaptation.

  20. Assessment of Logistics Risk using Collective Artificial Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skitsko Volodymyr I.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In substantiating management decisions in logistics, there can be used various economic and mathematical methods and models for quantitative risk assessment constructed with the help of a variety of instruments. Due to the increase in the processing power of computer equipment, economic and mathematical models become more complex, more precise, and the range of modeling tools expands. The current promising area in mathematical modeling is collective artificial intelligence, with the help of which it is possible to effectively solve weakly structured, multi-criteria, multi-purpose, complex economic problems. The mathematical model of the bat algorithm, the basic rules and steps of its functioning are presented, the application of the bat algorithm to solve the multi-index transport problem in the formulation of which the logistics risk is taken into account is shown, and the way to assess the logistics risk using the results of the functioning of the bat algorithm is shown.

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabo Alina

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

  2. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems. PMID:26195922

  3. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahlmann, Ralf; Horvath, Aniko

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage) assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  4. Risks, risk assessment and risk competence in toxicology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stahlmann, Ralf

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the toxic effects of xenobiotics requires sound knowledge of physiology and biochemistry. The often described lack of understanding pharmacology/toxicology is therefore primarily caused by the general absence of the necessary fundamental knowledge. Since toxic effects depend on exposure (or dosage assessing the risks arising from toxic substances also requires quantitative reasoning. Typically public discussions nearly always neglect quantitative aspects and laypersons tend to disregard dose-effect-relationships. One of the main reasons for such disregard is the fact that exposures often occur at extremely low concentrations that can only be perceived intellectually but not by the human senses. However, thresholds in the low exposure range are often scientifically disputed. At the same time, ignorance towards known dangers is wide-spread. Thus, enhancing the risk competence of laypersons will have to be initially restricted to increasing the awareness of existing problems.

  5. Risk Assessment and Risk Governance of Liquefied Natural Gas Development in Gladstone, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vegt, R G

    2018-02-26

    This article is a retrospective analysis of liquefied natural gas development (LNG) in Gladstone, Australia by using the structure of the risk governance framework developed by the International Risk Governance Council (IRGC). Since 2010 the port of Gladstone has undergone extensive expansion to facilitate the increasing coal export as well as the new development of three recently completed LNG facilities. Significant environmental and socio-economic impacts and concerns have occurred as a result of these developments. The overall aim of the article, therefore, is to identify the risk governance deficits that arose and to formulate processes capable of improving similar decision-making problems in the future. The structure of the IRGC framework is followed because it represents a broad analytical approach for considering risk assessment and risk governance in Gladstone in ways that include, but also go beyond, the risk approach of the ISO 31000:2009 standard that was employed at the time. The IRGC risk framework is argued to be a consistent and comprehensive risk governance framework that integrates scientific, economic, social, and cultural aspects and advocates the notion of inclusive risk governance through stakeholder communication and involvement. Key aspects related to risk preassessment, risk appraisal, risk tolerability and acceptability, risk management, and stakeholder communication and involvement are considered. The results indicate that the risk governance deficits include aspects related to (i) the risk matrix methodology, (ii) reflecting uncertainties, (iii) cumulative risks, (iv) the regulatory process, and (v) stakeholder communication and involvement. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  6. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  7. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

  8. Liquidity Risk meets Economic Capital and RAROC. A framework for measuring liquidity risk in banks.

    OpenAIRE

    Loebnitz, K.

    2011-01-01

    Liquidity risk is a crucial and inherent feature of the business model of banks. While banks and regulators use sophisticated mathematical methods to measure a bank's solvency risk, they use relatively simple tools for a bank's liquidity risk such as coverage ratios, sensitivity analyses, and scenario analyses. In this thesis we present a more rigorous framework that allows us to measure a bank's liquidity risk within the standard economic capital and RAROC setting. In particular, we introduc...

  9. The assessment of technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaeger, T.A.

    1978-01-01

    The safety of technical systems is so difficult to assess because the concept 'risk' contains technical-scientific factors as well as components of individual and social psychology. Immediate or short-term hazards of human life as i.e. caused by the operation of industrial plants and mediate and thus long-term hazards have to be distinguished. Characteristic for the second hazard groups is the great time-lag before the effect takes place. Thus a causal relationship can be recognized only late and not definitely. Even when the causes have been obviated the effects still show. The development of a systems-analytical model as a basis of decisive processes for the introduction of highly endangered large-scale technologies seems particularly difficult. A starting point for the quantification of the risk can still be seen in the product of the probability of realization and the extent of the damage. Public opinion, however, does not base its evaluations on an objective concept of risk but tends to have an attitude of aversion against great and disastrous accidents. On the other hand, plenty of slight accidents are accepted much more easily, even when the amount of deadly victims from accidents reaches dimensions beyond those of the rare large-scale accidents. Here, mostly the damage possible but not the probability of its occurence is seen, let alone the general use of the new technology. The value of the mathematical models for estimating risks is mainly due to the fact that they are able to clear up decisions. (orig./HP) [de

  10. [Systematic economic assessment and quality evaluation for traditional Chinese medicines].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao; Guo, Li-ping; Shang, Hong-cai; Ren, Ming; Lei, Xiang

    2015-05-01

    To learn about the economic studies on traditional Chinese medicines in domestic literatures, in order to analyze the current economic assessment of traditional Chinese medicines and explore the existing problems. Efforts were made to search CNKI, VIP, Wanfang database and CBM by computer and include all literatures about economic assessment of traditional Chinese medicines published on professional domestic journals in the systematic assessment and quality evaluation. Finally, 50 articles were included in the study, and the systematic assessment and quality evaluation were made for them in terms of titles, year, authors' identity, expense source, disease type, study perspective, study design type, study target, study target source, time limit, cost calculation, effect indicator, analytical technique and sensitivity analysis. The finally quality score was 0.74, which is very low. The results of the study showed insufficient studies on economics of traditional Chinese medicines, short study duration and simple evaluation methods, which will be solved through unremitting efforts in the future.

  11. economic assessment of the performance of private sector ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Admin

    Economic and Extension, Delta State University, Asaba Campus, Nigeria ... This paper critically attempts to assess the performance of the private sector ... economy would depend to a large extent on the quantity ..... New York, USA: McGraw.

  12. The impact of inclusion criteria in health economic assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richter, Anke; Thieda, Patricia; Thaler, Kylie; Gartlehner, Gerald

    2011-05-01

    The debate surrounding whether the findings of efficacy studies are applicable to real-world treatment situations is ongoing. The issue of lack of applicability due to a lack of clinical heterogeneity could be addressed by employing less restrictive inclusion criteria. Given that health economic assessments based on cost-effectiveness measures are required by many governments and insurance providers, the impact of this choice may be far reaching. The objective of this article was to explore the use of a pilot study to examine the impact of inclusion criteria on cost-effectiveness results and clinical heterogeneity. A health economic assessment was conducted using QRISK®2 and simulation modelling of different population groups within the pilot study in Lower Austria. Patients were referred by their family physicians to 'Active Prevention' (Vorsorge Aktiv), a community-based lifestyle intervention focused on exercise and nutritional programmes. Cardiovascular risk factors were recorded before and after the intervention and translated to cardiovascular events. As expected, enforcing restrictive inclusion criteria produced stronger and more irrefutable computations - in the expected number of events, the number of deaths, the incremental cost per life-year saved and in the 95% confidence interval. These findings provide insight into the issues surrounding clinical heterogeneity and the need for restrictive inclusion criteria. This is not a full health economic assessment of the intervention. While inclusion criteria provide stronger results by limiting populations to those who would benefit the most, they must be enforced, both within and outside the clinical trial setting. Enforcement has costs, both monetary and arising from unintended negative consequences of enforcement mechanisms. All these considerations will affect the results realized by the payer organization. A pilot study can reveal whether an intervention may be cost effective 'enough' without restrictive

  13. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  14. Issues of the economic risks theory under direct taxation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyacheslav Aleksandrovich Slavin

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective to calculate and justify the probabilistic characteristics of the economic risks of the company selling goods with profit and suffering from the burden of direct taxation. The economic nature and mechanisms of tax risks are described. Methods probabilisticdynamic method based on a few mathematically formulated principles ndash probability principle the principle of measurement etc. The method allows to find the optimal distributions of the phase variables components of the decisions vector of the production system numerical characteristics of which mathematical expectation variance covariance etc. bear the necessary information about the optimal properties of the economic actorsrsquobehavior. Results the basic equation of probabilisticdynamic method ndash the SchrodingerBellman equation ndash was integratedthe function of state was found the normal distribution was obtained of the vector of economic decisions in the phase space of the firm. The phase trajectories and the effective areas of the variables dispersion phase were researched. It is shown that at the intersection of the variation areas of normal distributions corresponding to two different production conditions there is a possibility of spontaneous transitions between these states accompanied by losses of capital assets of the company. The transition probabilities and the expression for average losses of working capital were calculated. It is shown that the inclusion of weak field tax perturbation leads to the modulation of the probability curves and average losses obtained earlier in the work by V.A. Slavin and I.N. Urusova quotMarket dynamics of productioneconomic system. 2. Transitions between production conditions. Elements of risks theoryquot for the company in the absence of taxation. The author outlines the nature of modulation of the main characteristics of tax risks related to the fact that the tax field influences the production system by phase trajectories

  15. The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

  16. Flood risk management in Flanders: from flood risk objectives to appropriate measures through state assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verbeke Sven

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In compliance with the EU Flood Directive to reduce flood risk, flood risk management objectives are indispensable for the delineation of necessary measures. In Flanders, flood risk management objectives are part of the environmental objectives which are judicially integrated by the Decree on Integrated Water Policy. Appropriate objectives were derived by supporting studies and extensive consultation on a local, regional and policy level. Under a general flood risk objective sub-objectives are formulated for different aspects: water management and safety, shipping, ecology, and water supply. By developing a risk matrix, it is possible to assess the current state of flood risk and to judge where action is needed to decrease the risk. Three different states of flood risk are distinguished: a acceptable risk, where no action is needed, b intermediate risk where the risk should be reduced by cost efficient actions, and c unacceptable risk, where action is necessary. For each particular aspect, the severity of the consequences of flooding is assessed by quantifiable indicators, such as economic risk, people at risk and ecological flood tolerance. The framework also allows evaluating the effects of the implemented measures and the autonomous development such as climate change and land use change. This approach gives a quantifiable assessment of state, and enables a prioritization of flood risk measures for the reduction of flood risk in a cost efficient and sustainable way.

  17. Getting fire risk assessment right.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charters, David

    2012-06-01

    The NHS has one of the world's largest and most varied estates, which at any time accommodates many of the most dependent people in society. With around 6,000 fires occurring in NHS premises each year, its duty of care--and that of other healthcare providers--demands very close attention to fire safety. Here Dr David Charters BSc, PhD, CEng, FIFireE, MIMechE, MSFPE, director of Fire Engineering at BRE Global, an independent third party approvals body offering certification of fire, security, and sustainability products and services, examines the critical role of fire risk assessment, and explains why the process should provide the 'foundation' for effective fire safety measures.

  18. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathryn Clarke Murray

    Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

  19. Social aspects of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Linnerooth, J.; Niehaus, F.

    1977-01-01

    Plans for technological development have often been met by demands for a closer examination of the associated benefits and risks and the consideration of social values in public planning and decision processes. A theoretical framework for inter-disciplinary risk assessment studies is presented to aid the balancing of technical data with social values in decision making. Methods for obtaining value measures are reviewed and an attitude-based method is developed in detail; this model allows identification of the relative importance of the technical, psychological and social factors which underlie attitudes and indicates which factors differentiate between social groups. Results of a pilot application to nuclear power are summarized. For these subjects, different attitudes between pro and con were primarily due to strongly differing beliefs about the benefits of nuclear power. Preliminary results are reported of an application of this model with a heterogeneous sample drawn from the general public. The cognitive limitations which affect rationality in intuitive decision making are summarized as background to introduce formal decision methodologies for the use of attitude data in public decision making

  20. An Assessment of Economic Stability under the New European Economic Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe HURDUZEU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The economic crisis, followed by the sovereign debt crisis, resulted in high unemployment, unsustainable public finances and deepening disparities between Euro Area member states, and underlined the necessity of strengthening economic coordination. In order to lessen the effects of the crises, to prevent further deepening of the economic context and the appearance of new similar situations, the European framework was improved by the provisions of the new economic governance. The aim of this paper is to assess the effects regarding macroeconomic stability within Euro Area member states, achieved under the new economic governance framework. In this respect, the first part of the paper consists in an overview of the provisions imposed through the European Semester, the reformed Stability and Growth Pact and the other elements of the new European governance. In order to assess the achievement of economic stability we analyzed data for Southern Euro Area member states, during 2009-2013, as this group of countries registered most issues during 2013. We took into consideration five important indicators, essential in any economy that form the macroeconomic stability pentagon: economic growth rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate, budgetary balance and current account balance. By comparing the area obtained through the macroeconomic stability pentagon, we conclude on meeting one of the main objectives of the new European governance: economic stability.

  1. Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 11/12/2014 Risk Calculator About the Tool Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors Download SAS and Gauss Code Page ... Rectal Cancer: Prevention, Genetics, Causes Tests to Detect Colorectal Cancer and Polyps Cancer Risk Prediction Resources Update November ...

  2. SECTOR-SPECIFIC STRUCTURE OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMY AS A FACTOR OF ELEVATION OF RISKS TO ITS ECONOMIC SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rostislav BILYK

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes a sector-specific specialization of the regional economy in Ukraine. It also reveals possibility and conditions of transformation of a sector-specific specialization of the region and risks to its economic security. The article suggests an assessment of influence of a sector-specific specialization on occurrence of threats to the economic security of the region.

  3. Coastal risk management: how to motivate individual economic decisions to lower flood risk?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Filatova, Tatiana; Mulder, J.P.M. P.M.; van der Veen, A.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal flood risk is defined as a product of probability of event and its effect, measured in terms of damage. The paper is focused on coastal management strategies aimed to decrease risk by decreasing potential damage. We review socio-economic literature to show that total flood damage depends on

  4. An Attempt to Assess the Quantitative Impact of Institutions on Economic Growth and Economic Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Próchniak Mariusz

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at assessing to what extent institutional environment is responsible for worldwide differences in economic growth and economic development. To answer this question, we use an innovative approach based on a new concept of the institutions-augmented Solow model which is then estimated empirically using regression equations. The analysis covers 180 countries during the 1993-2012 period. The empirical analysis confirms a large positive impact of the quality of institutional environment on the level of economic development. The positive link has been evidenced for all five institutional indicators: two indices of economic freedom (Heritage Foundation and Fraser Institute, the governance indicator (World Bank, the democracy index (Freedom House, and the EBRD transition indicator for post-socialist countries. Differences in physical capital, human capital, and institutional environment explain about 70-75% of the worldwide differences in economic development. The institutions-augmented Solow model, however, performs slightly poorer in explaining differences in the rates of economic growth: only one institutional variable (index of economic freedom has a statistically significant impact on economic growth. In terms of originality, this paper extends the theoretical analysis of the Solow model by including institutions, on the one hand, and shows a comprehensive empirical analysis of the impact of various institutional indicators on both the level of development and the pace of economic growth, on the other. The results bring important policy implications.

  5. Risk assessment of forensic patients: nurses' role.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encinares, Maxima; McMaster, Jeff James; McNamee, Jim

    2005-03-01

    One of the unique roles of forensic nurses is to conduct risk assessments. Establishing a therapeutic nurse-patient relationship helps forensic nurses perform accurate and useful risk assessments. Accurate risk assessments can facilitate formulation of individualized risk management plans, designed to meet patients' needs and ensure public safety. The importance of forensic nurses' knowledge and application of appropriate communication and proper documentation cannot be overemphasized.

  6. Radiological safety and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, P.H.; Barg, D.C.; Baird, R.D.; Card, D.H.; de Souza, F.; Elder, J.; Felthauser, K.; Jensen, C.; Winkler, V.

    1982-02-01

    A brief radiological safety and risk assessment of a nuclear power generation center with an adjacent on-site waste disposal facility at a specific site in the State of Utah is presented. The assessment was conducted to assist in determining the feasibility and practicality of developing a nuclear energy center (NEC) in Utah consisting of nine 1250 MWe nuclear pressurized water reactor (PWR) electrical generating units arranged in 3 clusters of 3 units each known as triads. The site selected for this conceptual study is in the Horse Bench area about 15 miles directly south of the town of Green River, Utah. The radiological issues included direct radiation exposures to on-site workers and the off-site population, release of radioactive material, and effects of these releases for both normal operations and accidental occurrences. The basic finding of this study is that the concept of an NEC in the Green River area, specifically at the Horse Bench site, is radiologically feasible

  7. Risk assessment - The future trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marks, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Many organizations today are faced with cleaning a site or facility, selecting appropriate remedial alternatives, or explaining the potential effects on human health and the environment caused by the releases of toxic compounds into the air, soil, and water, The use of risk assessment (RA) as a management tool is increasing because it offers an integrated approach to the analysis of toxicological, geological, physio-chemical, meteorological, statistical, and biological parameters that must be evaluated in the assessment of potential impacts to human health. The regulatory atmosphere in the 1990s is leaning toward the adoption of further laws requiring the completion of the RA process. Any industry involved in submitting permit applications to Air Quality Management Districts or complying with California's Proposition 65 and AB 2588 will be required to prepare RAs. Several guidance documents are available that support the RA process including the California Site Mitigation Decision Tree Manual published by the State Department of Health Services (DHS), which bases its approach on developing cleanup objectives (Applied Action Levels) on RA. This presentation focuses on the applications RA can have to the petroleum industry and the kinds of data that each case should develop to make maximum use of the RA process

  8. Gender differences in risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine R. Harris

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Across many real-world domains, men engage in more risky behaviors than do women. To examine some of the beliefs and preferences that underlie this difference, 657 participants assessed their likelihood of engaging in various risky activities relating to four different domains (gambling, health, recreation, and social, and reported their perceptions of (1 probability of negative outcomes, (2 severity of potential negative outcomes, and (3 enjoyment expected from the risky activities. Women's greater perceived likelihood of negative outcomes and lesser expectation of enjoyment partially mediated their lower propensity toward risky choices in gambling, recreation, and health domains. Perceptions of severity of potential outcomes was a partial mediator in the gambling and health domains. The genders did not differ in their propensity towards taking social risks. A fifth domain of activities associated with high potential payoffs and fixed minor costs was also assessed. In contrast to other domains, women reported being more likely to engage in behaviors in this domain. This gender difference was partially mediated by women's more optimistic judgments of the probability of good outcomes and of

  9. Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

    2016-01-01

    The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

  10. Risk assessment and risk management in managed aquifer recharge

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Page, D

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This chapter presents the methodologies used for risk assessment and risk management in MAR in Australia and the European Union, qualitative and quantitative approaches adopted within the RECLAIM Water project and case studies where the outcomes...

  11. Regional scale ecological risk assessment: using the relative risk model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Landis, Wayne G

    2005-01-01

    ...) in the performance of regional-scale ecological risk assessments. The initial chapters present the methodology and the critical nature of the interaction between risk assessors and decision makers...

  12. Methods of assessment and management of enterprise risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Kiseleva

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the actual topic of our time – the management of business risks. An integral part of professional risk management is to identify the nature of the object of management in the sphere of economy. Since the domestic theory of risk management is under development, the problem of a clear comprehensive definition of risk becomes now of particular relevance. The article discusses the basic concepts of risk management; studied its components in the business activities; reflected system and risk management principles; The basic types of risks in business. A organizational and economic mechanism of enterprise risk assessment. Practical advice on risk management. Entrepreneurship without risk does not exist. With the development of market economy the specific entrepreneur determines the methods that will work, and they all lead to entrepreneurial risks. The level of threats on the market today, above the level of potential profits. It is concluded that it is impossible to increase revenue without increasing the risk or reduce risk without reducing income. The lower range of the probability distribution of expected returns relative to its mean value, the lower the risk associated with this operation. Avoid risk in business is almost impossible, but you can reduce this risk. And it depends on how professionally and correctly operates the entrepreneur, what kind of strategy he will choose to reduce the appearance of risk.

  13. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  14. The use of comparative risk assessment in decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chicken, J.C.; Hayns, M.R.; Tolley, B.

    1989-01-01

    This paper justifies: 1) Comparative risk assessment provides a way of establishing whether or not the risks associated with a novel proposal are likely to satisfy current norms. 2) Comparative risk assessment is an aid to decision making when for some reason there is inadequate quantitative data about the risks associated with a project. 3) One problem is that there is no single universally acceptable norm. Norms vary both with time and from activity to activity. The spread of acceptable norms spans at least two orders of magnitude. 4) For any comparative risk assessment to be considered more than a suggestion on how acceptable a risk is, the risks that are compared must be similar and located in similar cultural and geographical environments. 5) Ulitmately justification of the acceptability of a project must be based on data generated directly by the project itself and any opinion based on comparative evidence must be iteratively revised as direct hard evidence becomes available. 6) Comparative risk assessment has a useful role in presentations to the lay public about the acceptability of a particular risk. 7) There may be more problems in making a comparative assessment of risk acceptability in socio-political terms than in technical or economic terms. The central requirement that the comparison must be based on data from similar cultural backgrounds is often hard to satisfy in relation to socio-political considerations

  15. Elements for a comprehensive assessment of natural resources: bridging environmental economics with ecological economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez Romero, Paulo Cesar; Cubillos Gonzalez, Alexander

    2012-01-01

    The predominance of economic assessments regarding the value of natural resources has caused a sub-valuing of the real benefits which societies can obtain from nature. This is due to a lack of knowledge about the complexity of ecological functions, as well as a dismissal of the integrated relations of the sub-systems which make up the environment. It is therefore necessary to establish conceptual bridges between environmental sciences to fill in the gaps in economic valuation methods by recurring to diverse measuring scales, participation from the different actors involved, and a principle of precaution regarding the limits of nature. This paper explores the concepts of value and economic valuation methods from the perspectives of Environmental Economics and Ecological Economics. It then proposes an integration of valuing methodologies which take into account how complementary and complex natures value relations are. This proposal of valuing integrally ecosystem goods and services contributes to adjusting political decisions more accordingly to real environmental conditions.

  16. Linking Physical Climate Research and Economic Assessments of Mitigation Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stainforth, David; Calel, Raphael

    2017-04-01

    Evaluating climate change policies requires economic assessments which balance the costs and benefits of climate action. A certain class of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMS) are widely used for this type of analysis; DICE, PAGE and FUND are three of the most influential. In the economics community there has been much discussion and debate about the economic assumptions implemented within these models. Two aspects in particular have gained much attention: i) the costs of damages resulting from climate change - the so-called damage function, and ii) the choice of discount rate applied to future costs and benefits. There has, however, been rather little attention given to the consequences of the choices made in the physical climate models within these IAMS. Here we discuss the practical aspects of the implementation of the physical models in these IAMS, as well as the implications of choices made in these physical science components for economic assessments[1]. We present a simple breakdown of how these IAMS differently represent the climate system as a consequence of differing underlying physical models, different parametric assumptions (for parameters representing, for instance, feedbacks and ocean heat uptake) and different numerical approaches to solving the models. We present the physical and economic consequences of these differences and reflect on how we might better incorporate the latest physical science understanding in economic models of this type. [1] Calel, R. and Stainforth D.A., "On the Physics of Three Integrated Assessment Models", Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press.

  17. Effects of incorporating environmental cost and risk aversion on economic values of pig breeding goal traits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, B M; de Mey, Y; Bastiaansen, J W M; Oude Lansink, A G J M

    2018-06-01

    Economic values (EVs) of traits, accounting for environmental impacts and risk preferences of farmers, are required to design breeding goals that contribute to both economic and environmental sustainability. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of incorporating environmental costs and the risk preferences of farmers on the EVs of pig breeding goal traits. A breeding goal consisting of both sow efficiency and production traits was defined for a typical Brazilian farrow-to-finish pig farm with 1,500 productive sows. A mean-variance utility function was employed for deriving the EVs at finishing pig level assuming fixed slaughter weight. The inclusion of risk and risk aversion reduces the economic weights of sow efficiency traits (17%) while increasing the importance of production traits (7%). For a risk-neutral producer, inclusion of environmental cost reduces the economic importance of sow efficiency traits (3%) while increasing the importance of production traits (1%). Genetic changes of breeding goal traits by their genetic standard deviations reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, and excretions of nitrogen and phosphorus per finished pig by up to 6% while increasing farm profit. The estimated EVs could be used to improve selection criteria and thereby contribute to the sustainability of pig production systems. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Breeding and Genetics published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  18. The Arousing Risk: Influences of positive and negative arousal on preferences for economic risk

    OpenAIRE

    Galentino, Andrea

    2015-01-01

    Standard economic models explain decision making under risk as a utility maximization process. Developments in cognitive psychology and neuroeconomics showed the volatility of such conceptualization highlighting human bounded rationality and discussing the role of decision maker’s affective state (basic reactions to any emotionally charged event) in cognitive evaluation of risk (risk as feeling). In particular, an affective-based evaluation of choice options may determine whether decision mak...

  19. NEW INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMICS FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING AND IMPROVING AGRARIAN ORGANIZATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Bachev

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available We incorporate interdisciplinary New Institutional and Transaction Costs Economics and suggest a framework for assessing efficiency of farms and agrarian organizations. Our new approach includes: study of farm and agrarian organizations as governing rather than production structure; assessment of comparative efficiency of alternative market, contract, internal, and hybrid modes of governance; analysis of level of transaction costs and their institutional, behavioral, dimensional, technological and natural factors; determination of criteria of farm efficiency and its effective boundaries; specification of economic role of government and needs for public interventions in agrarian sector; assessment of comparative efficiency of alternative forms of public involvement.

  20. Assessment of potential economic and environmental impacts caused by Phytophthora ramorum in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hella Kehlenbeck

    2008-01-01

    Economic and environmental impacts of Phytophthora ramorum in Europe were evaluated within the European Union framework 6 project on ?Risk Analysis for P. ramorum a pathogen threat to Europe? (RAPRA). Impact assessment was conducted according to three different scenarios: 1. ?Nursery System? - describes losses occurring in...

  1. An approach to assessing risk in coalbed methane prospect evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanorsdale, C.R.

    1991-01-01

    The economic evaluation of drilling prospects requires assessing the degree of risk involved and its impact on reserve estimates. In developed areas, risk can be determined in a fairly straightforward manner. In remote wildcat areas, risk can almost never be adequately identified or quantified. Between these extremes lie complex reservoirs -- reservoirs to heterogeneous that each well drilled could exhibit production characteristics unlike those of its neighbors. This paper illustrates the use of a risk assessment methodology in a case study of Fruitland coal prospects in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico. This approach could be applied to coalbed methane prospects or any unconventional or highly heterogeneous reservoir with appropriate modification. The utility of this approach is made apparent in a graphical analysis that relates reserves, rate of return and payout time for managerial or financial presentation. This graphical technique and the underlying risk assessment were used to aid a conservative management team in evaluating participation in a multi-well coalbed project

  2. Medical device risk management and its economic impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katerina Krsteva Jakimovska

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The importance of medical devices in everyday users/patients lives is imensse. This is the reason why emphasis must be put on safety during their use. Satisfactory safety level can be achived by implementation of quality and risk management standards. Medical device manufacturers must learn to deal with the potential risks by using theoretical and practical examples and measures in order to protect their users/patients and themselves from suffering huge losses arising from adverse events or recall of their products. The best moment for implementation of risk management methods and analysis begins from the device design and development through manufacturing, sales and distribution. These way medical device manufacturers will succseed in protecting their users/patients from serious adverse events and at the same time protect their brand and society status, while minimizing economic losses.

  3. Risk assessment of metal vapor arcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C. (Inventor); Leidecker, Henning W. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    A method for assessing metal vapor arcing risk for a component is provided. The method comprises acquiring a current variable value associated with an operation of the component; comparing the current variable value with a threshold value for the variable; evaluating compared variable data to determine the metal vapor arcing risk in the component; and generating a risk assessment status for the component.

  4. Model of MSD Risk Assessment at Workplace

    OpenAIRE

    K. Sekulová; M. Šimon

    2015-01-01

    This article focuses on upper-extremity musculoskeletal disorders risk assessment model at workplace. In this model are used risk factors that are responsible for musculoskeletal system damage. Based on statistic calculations the model is able to define what risk of MSD threatens workers who are under risk factors. The model is also able to say how MSD risk would decrease if these risk factors are eliminated.

  5. Radiological endpoints relevant to ecological risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, F.

    1997-01-01

    Because of the potential risk from radiation due to the releases of radionuclides from anthropogenic activities, considerable research was performed to determine for humans the levels of dose received, their responses to the doses and mechanisms of action of radioactivity on living matter. More recently, there is an increased interest in the effects of radioactivity on non-human species. There are differences in approach between risk assessment for humans and ecosystems. For protection of humans, the focus is the individual and the endpoint of primary concern is cancer induction. For protection of ecosystems, the focus is on population stability and the endpoint of concern is reproductive success for organisms important ecologically and economically. For these organisms, information is needed on their responses to irradiation and the potential impact of the doses absorbed on their reproductive success. Considerable information is available on the effects of radiation on organisms from different phyla and types of ecosystems. Databases useful for assessing risk from exposures of populations to radioactivity are the effects of irradiation on mortality, fertility and sterility, the latter two of which are important components of reproductive success. Data on radiation effects on mortality are available both from acute and chronic irradiation. In relation to radiation effects, reproductive success for a given population is related to a number of characteristics of the species, including inherent radiosensitivity of reproductive tissues and early life stages, processes occurring during gametogenesis, reproductive strategy and exposure history. The available data on acute and chronic radiation doses is reviewed for invertebrates, fishes and mammals. The information reviewed indicates that wide ranges in responses with species can be expected. Parameters that most likely contribute to inherent radiosensitivity are discussed. (author)

  6. Risk-trading in flood management: An economic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chiung Ting

    2017-09-15

    Although flood management is no longer exclusively a topic of engineering, flood mitigation continues to be associated with hard engineering options. Flood adaptation or the capacity to adapt to flood risk, as well as a demand for internalizing externalities caused by flood risk between regions, complicate flood management activities. Even though integrated river basin management has long been recommended to resolve the above issues, it has proven difficult to apply widely, and sometimes even to bring into existence. This article explores how internalization of externalities as well as the realization of integrated river basin management can be encouraged via the use of a market-based approach, namely a flood risk trading program. In addition to maintaining efficiency of optimal resource allocation, a flood risk trading program may also provide a more equitable distribution of benefits by facilitating decentralization. This article employs a graphical analysis to show how flood risk trading can be implemented to encourage mitigation measures that increase infiltration and storage capacity. A theoretical model is presented to demonstrate the economic conditions necessary for flood risk trading. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saša T. Bakrač

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

  8. Apperception and assessment of technological risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoyos, C.; Hauke, G.

    1986-01-01

    Risk is defined to be the possibility to induce damage or loss. Any person confronted with risk in his activities has to assess the risk in every case. The author explains a number of actions and events that have been worked out to train people in better management of risk, especially in the working environment. (DG) [de

  9. Performing the lockout/tagout risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, W Jon

    2007-03-01

    Lockout/tagout provides the greatest level routine, repetitive, and integral to the production process, a risk assessment should be performed. If the task performed poses an unacceptable risk, acceptable risk reduction methods should be implemented to reduce the risk to acceptable levels.

  10. Economic assessment model architecture for AGC/AVLIS selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoglund, R.L.

    1984-01-01

    The economic assessment model architecture described provides the flexibility and completeness in economic analysis that the selection between AGC and AVLIS demands. Process models which are technology-specific will provide the first-order responses of process performance and cost to variations in process parameters. The economics models can be used to test the impacts of alternative deployment scenarios for a technology. Enterprise models provide global figures of merit for evaluating the DOE perspective on the uranium enrichment enterprise, and business analysis models compute the financial parameters from the private investor's viewpoint

  11. Risk communication in environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahm-Crites, L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Germantown, MD (United States). Washington Operations Office

    1996-08-26

    Since the enactment of NEPA and other environmental legislation, the concept of `risk communication` has expanded from simply providing citizens with scientific information about risk to exploring ways of making risk information genuinely meaningful to the public and facilitating public involvement in the very processes whereby risk is analyzed and managed. Contemporary risk communication efforts attempt to find more effective ways of conveying increasingly complex risk information and to develop more democratic and proactive approaches to community involvement, in particular to ensuring the participation of diverse populations in risk decisions. Although considerable progress has been made in a relatively short time, risk communication researchers and practitioners currently face a number of challenges in a time of high expectations, low trust, and low budgets.

  12. Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in The North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, Johnny Alexander; Hidalgo, César Augusto; Johana Marín, Nini

    2017-10-01

    Natural disasters of a geodynamic nature can cause enormous economic and human losses. The economic costs of a landslide disaster include relocation of communities and physical repair of urban infrastructure. However, when performing a quantitative risk analysis, generally, the indirect economic consequences of such an event are not taken into account. A probabilistic approach methodology that considers several scenarios of hazard and vulnerability to measure the magnitude of the landslide and to quantify the economic costs is proposed. With this approach, it is possible to carry out a quantitative evaluation of the risk by landslides, allowing the calculation of the economic losses before a potential disaster in an objective, standardized and reproducible way, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The possibility of comparing different scenarios facilitates the urban planning process, the optimization of interventions to reduce risk to acceptable levels and an assessment of economic losses according to the magnitude of the damage. For the development and explanation of the proposed methodology, a simple case study is presented, located in north-eastern zone of the city of Medellín. This area has particular geomorphological characteristics, and it is also characterized by the presence of several buildings in bad structural conditions. The proposed methodology permits to obtain an estimative of the probable economic losses by earthquake-induced landslides, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The obtained estimative shows that the structural intervention of the buildings produces a reduction the order of 21 % in the total landslide risk.

  13. Thyroid Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    The R package thyroid implements a risk prediction model developed by NCI researchers to calculate the absolute risk of developing a second primary thyroid cancer (SPTC) in individuals who were diagnosed with a cancer during their childhood.

  14. Conceptual geoinformation model of natural hazards risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulygin, Valerii

    2016-04-01

    Natural hazards are the major threat to safe interactions between nature and society. The assessment of the natural hazards impacts and their consequences is important in spatial planning and resource management. Today there is a challenge to advance our understanding of how socio-economical and climate changes will affect the frequency and magnitude of hydro-meteorological hazards and associated risks. However, the impacts from different types of natural hazards on various marine and coastal economic activities are not of the same type. In this study, the conceptual geomodel of risk assessment is presented to highlight the differentiation by the type of economic activities in extreme events risk assessment. The marine and coastal ecosystems are considered as the objects of management, on the one hand, and as the place of natural hazards' origin, on the other hand. One of the key elements in describing of such systems is the spatial characterization of their components. Assessment of ecosystem state is based on ecosystem indicators (indexes). They are used to identify the changes in time. The scenario approach is utilized to account for the spatio-temporal dynamics and uncertainty factors. Two types of scenarios are considered: scenarios of using ecosystem services by economic activities and scenarios of extreme events and related hazards. The reported study was funded by RFBR, according to the research project No. 16-35-60043 mol_a_dk.

  15. INCORPORATING NONCHEMICAL STRESSORS INTO CUMMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The risk assessment paradigm has begun to shift from assessing single chemicals using "reasonable worst case" assumptions for individuals to considering multiple chemicals and community-based models. Inherent in community-based risk assessment is examination of all stressors a...

  16. Colon Cancer Risk Assessment - Gauss Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    An executable file (in GAUSS) that projects absolute colon cancer risk (with confidence intervals) according to NCI’s Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (CCRAT) algorithm. GAUSS is not needed to run the program.

  17. Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rausand, Marvin

    2011-01-01

    With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

  18. Ischemic stroke risk factors during Greek economic crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsanos, Aristeidis H; Fiolaki, Aidonio; Markou, Sofia; Markoula, Sofia; Kosmidou, Maria; Kyritsis, Athanassios P; Giannopoulos, Sotirios

    2016-02-01

    The impact of Greece's economic crisis on healthcare is of great concern. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of economic crisis on the prevention of cerebral ischemic events. Retrospective analysis of patients with ischemic stroke (IS) or transient ischemic attack (TIA) admitted to a tertiary neurological department in northwestern Greece during the period 2008-2014. Using 2011 as the transitional year IS/TIA patients were dichotomized according to their admission date in two subgroups: the "before economic crisis" subgroup and the "after economic crisis" subgroup. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictor variables of statin/antihypertensive pretreatment. Patients admitted after the economic crisis outbreak (mean age: 57.6 ± 13.5 years) were found to have lower waist periphery measurements (p = 0.001), lower incidence of diabetes (p = 0.028), hyperlipidemia (p = 0.002) and metabolic syndrome(p crisis (mean age: 59.6 ± 11.1 years). However, between the two subgroups were no significant differences in the rates of untreated patients with hyperlipidemia (p = 0.189) and/or hypertension (p = 0.313). Even though statin pretreatment prior to stroke onset was found to be reduced during economic crisis compared to the period before the crisis, (OR = 0.58, 95%CI: 0.34-0.95, p = 0.032), this association did not retain statistical significance in the multivariate logistic regression analysis (OR = 1.69, 95%CI = 0.83-3.42, p = 0.143). Our study supports that at present financial crisis has not significantly affected the prevention of cerebrovascular events in the citizens of a provincial city area. Data from other regions and time-periods are needed for the final verdict. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Coenoses risk assessment in industry (resource specificity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tyaglov Sergey, G.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The modernization of the economic infrastructure of modern Russia is now essential, taking a natural limiter necessary momentum, which is especially important in the current conditions of global trends and taking into account the efforts taken by the State, aimed at large-scale growth of production of Russian companies. This paper discusses the direction of overcoming the problem of lack of access to financial services to business entities, due to the lack of a universal tool to identify risks in the provision of credit resources to the understanding that, despite the differences in interpretation of Russian and foreign sources, is a complex of ontological perception of researchers, proposed expanded by generally accepted phenomenon of self-organization. It is proposed to assess the risks of the enterprises on the basis of the provisions of coenoses theory, which allows using a few key parameters to determine the degree of efficiency of use of available resources, to identify the stability of the enterprise as a system and predict its dynamic changes.

  20. Nuclear proliferation and civilian nuclear power: report of the Nonproliferation Alternative Systems Assessment Program. Volume V. Economics and systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-12-01

    This assessment considers the economics of alternative nuclear reactor and fuel-cycle systems in the light of possible patterns of uranium supply and energy demand, as well as the economic implications of improving the proliferation resistance of the various systems. The assessment focuses on the costs of alternative nuclear technologies and the possible timing of their implementation, based on their economic attractiveness. The objectives of this assessment are to identify when economic incentives to deploy advanced nuclear power systems might exist, to estimate the costs of using technologies that would reduce the risk of proliferation, to assess the impact of major economic uncertainties on the transition to new technologies, and to compare the investments required for alternative systems. This information can then be used to assess the potential economic benefits of alternative research, development, and demonstration programs and the timing of those programs

  1. Nuclear proliferation and civilian nuclear power: report of the Nonproliferation Alternative Systems Assessment Program. Volume V. Economics and systems analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1979-12-01

    This assessment considers the economics of alternative nuclear reactor and fuel-cycle systems in the light of possible patterns of uranium supply and energy demand, as well as the economic implications of improving the proliferation resistance of the various systems. The assessment focuses on the costs of alternative nuclear technologies and the possible timing of their implementation, based on their economic attractiveness. The objectives of this assessment are to identify when economic incentives to deploy advanced nuclear power systems might exist, to estimate the costs of using technologies that would reduce the risk of proliferation, to assess the impact of major economic uncertainties on the transition to new technologies, and to compare the investments required for alternative systems. This information can then be used to assess the potential economic benefits of alternative research, development, and demonstration programs and the timing of those programs.

  2. Techno-economic risk analysis of glycerol biorefinery concepts against market price fluctuation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gargalo, Carina L.; Cheali, Peam; Gernaey, Krist

    . The high-value added bio-products boost profitability, the high-volume fuel helps meet national energy targets, and the power production cuts costs and dodges greenhouse-gas emissions [1] [2] [3]. The increasing amount of biodiesel production worldwide (e.g. from vegetable oils, palm oil, animal fats......) and the associated economic risks against historical market fluctuations when assessing the economics of competing glycerol biorefinery concepts. The aim is to compare the fitness/survival of the biorefinery concepts under extreme market disturbances. To perform this analysis, we used a superstructure based...

  3. Risk assessment - black art or science?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, G.

    1988-01-01

    Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

  4. Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Q; Halsnæs, K; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns, in some cases leading to increased occurrences of precipitation extremes. Urban landscapes are vulnerable to such changes due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible adaptation requires better flood risk quantification and assessment of appropriate adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper presents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation framework is used to give detailed insights of the physical and economic feasibilities of each option. Estimation of marginal benefits of adaptation options are carried out through a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis. The results are aimed at providing important information for decision making on how best to adapt to urban pluvial flooding due to climate impacts in cities.

  5. Facts and values in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, Frank B.

    1998-01-01

    Risk, as commonly understood, is a complex melange of facts, values, and fears. While this complexity of public risk perception is now broadly recognized, its implications are insufficiently explored. Public risk perceptions offer p poor guide for public policymaking. Popular assessments of risk are tainted by misinformation and unreliable heuristics. While subjective considerations, often called values, play a role in public perception of risk, those 'values' are often inappropriate for government decisionmaking. Reliance on public perceptions of risk means more premature deaths. Public risk perception also is systematically skewed contrary to the interests of the disadvantaged. Strict probabilistic risk measures generally provide a superior guide for government regulatory policy

  6. Life Cycle Assessment and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Stig Irving

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool for environmental assessment of product and systems – over the whole life cycle from acquisition of raw materials to the end-of-life of the product – and encompassing all environmental impacts of emissions and resource usage, e.g. global warming, acidification...... cycle. The models for assessing toxic impacts in LCA are to a large extent based on those developed for RA, e.g. EUSES, and require basic information about the inherent properties of the emissions like solubility, LogKow,ED50 etc. Additionally, it is a prerequisite to know how to characterize...

  7. From risk-seeking to risk-averse: The development of economic risk preference from early childhood to adulthood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. Paulsen

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Adolescence is often described as a period of heightened risk-taking. Adolescents are notorious for impulsivity, emotional volatility, and risky behaviors such as drinking under the influence of alcohol. By contrast, we found that risk-taking declines linearly from childhood to adulthood when individuals make choices over monetary gambles. Further, with age we found increases in the sensitivity to economic risk, defined as the degree to which a preference for assured monetary gains over a risky payoff depends upon the variability in the risky payoff. These findings indicate that decisions about economic risk may follow a different developmental trajectory than other kinds of risk taking, and that changes in sensitivity to risk may be a major factor in the development of mature risk aversion.

  8. Modeling for operational event risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has been using risk models to evaluate the risk significance of operational events in U.S. commercial nuclear power plants for more seventeen years. During that time, the models have evolved in response to the advances in risk assessment technology and insights gained with experience. Evaluation techniques fall into two categories, initiating event assessments and condition assessments. The models used for these analyses have become uniquely specialized for just this purpose

  9. Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mousavi

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

  10. Integrated environmental and economic assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Sanchez, Veronica

    in the “Optimization approach” the scenarios are the results of an optimization process. • The cost approach describes cost principles and level of LCA integration. Conventional and Environmental LCCs are financial assessments, i.e. include marketed goods/services, but while Environmental LCCs include environmental...... assessment of SWM systems alongside environmental impacts assessment to take budget constrains into account. In light of the need for combined environmental and economic assessment of SWM, this PhD thesis developed a consistent and comprehensive method for integrated environmental and economic assessment...... of SWM technologies and systems. The method resulted from developing further the generic Life Cycle Costing (LCC) framework suggested by Hunkeler et al. (2008) and Swarr et al. (2011) to apply it on the field of SWM. The method developed includes: two modelling approaches (Accounting and Optimization...

  11. RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oksana G. Feoktistova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

  12. Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

    1997-01-01

    Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

  13. Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Monika C.; Leidecker, Henning W.

    2010-01-01

    The Tin Whisker Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool has been designed to evaluate the risk of metal vapor arcing and to help facilitate a decision toward a researched risk disposition. Users can evaluate a system without having to open up the hardware. This process allows for investigating components at risk rather than spending time and money analyzing every component. The tool points to a risk level and provides direction for appropriate action and documentation.

  14. Economics and risks of recycling radioactively contaminated concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parker, F.L.; Ayers, K.W.

    1997-01-01

    As Decontamination and Decommissioning activities proceed within the DOE complex, tremendous volumes of both radioactively contaminated and non-contaminated concrete will be processed for disposal. Current practice is to decontaminate the concrete, dispose of the contamination at LLW facilities and ship the concrete rubble to C ampersand D landfills for disposal. This study evaluates the economic, health and safety, legal, and social aspects of recycling radioactively contaminated concrete. Probabilistic models were used to estimate costs and risks. The model indicates that the radioactively contaminated concrete can be recycled at the same or lower cost than current or alternative practices. The risks associated with recycling were consistently less than or equal to the other alternatives considered

  15. Energy and environment: Risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, U.

    1993-01-01

    Two problems connected to the concept of 'risk' were analyzed: nuclear power production and global climate changes. In fact, nuclear power, despite of the risk management of the plants, does not produce gaseous emissions and can be used to reduce environmental risks. Even if a cost benefit analysis of nuclear power is very difficult, to perform it is author's opinion that, very probably, industrial countries will continue to use this form of energy

  16. CEA: risk management assessment 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bigot, Bernard; Bonnevie, Edwige; Maillot, Bernard

    2012-01-01

    This report proposes a qualitative and quantitative overview of CEA activities in the field of risk management during 2011. These activities concerned the impact on the environment, the safety of installations, the management of professional risks (safety and health at work), the radiological protection of workers, the transports of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, the management of emergency situations, the management of law risks, controls and audits

  17. Spatial Analysis and Safety Assessment of Social and Economic Development of Small and Medium Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Anatolyevna Orekhova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the spatial patterns of socio-economic development of small and medium-sized cities in the Volgograd region. We know that small and medium-sized cities as spatial socio-economic systems are not only the support frame of settlement, but the main “engine” of innovative impulses for the surrounding periphery. The scientific novelty of the study consists in the effort to implement a spatial approach to the assessment of the economic security of small and medium-sized cities (SCR. The content of the economic security of cities is determined by two system characteristics of the socio-economic system: economic activity (EA and quality of life (QL of the urban population, or SCR = F (EA; QL. For finding spatial patterns in GIS, great interest is in investigating the environment of each city by calculating the local statistical characteristics of geo-variability which allow assessing trends of spatial variation of the six components of security (human security, technosphere safety, environmental safety, etc., local variations in emissions and their values indicators Ki. The successful solution of these problems is possible with the use of tools of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA in ARCGIS, and in particular, the Voronoy maps. The spatial approach has allowed to perform an integrated assessment of the economic security and to evaluate safety risks in small and medium-sized cities of the Volgograd region with the security system of indicators.

  18. CEA - 2014 risk management assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnevie, Edwige; Verwaerde, Daniel; Maillot, Bernard

    2015-06-01

    After introducing presentations of CEA managers in charge of risk management and controls, this document presents and comments the actions undertaken by the CEA and the obtained results in terms of risk management in different fields: protection and control of the environment, installation safety, health, safety and radiation protection, transport of hazardous materials, waste management, protection of sites, installations and heritage, management of emergency situations, management of legal risks, internal audits and controls. Other topics are addressed like the presentation of the risk management department, and the role of the CEA in the relationship between research and industry

  19. Environmental Comparative Risk Assessment: A Case Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Health and environmental impacts associated with energy production and industrial activities as well as food production and agricultural activities have had great concern in the last decades. Early activities emerged in late 80s of the last century through an Inter- Agency project (lAEA, UNDY, WHO, ... ) on the comparative risk assessment from energy systems and industrial complexes. A work-shop on Risk Assessment and Management in large industrial areas was held in Alexandria Egypt on 20-33 Det 1993, sponsored by IAEA. Several conferences, experts work groups and workshops were held there of Recent trends in determining risks are: 1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment approach to identify hazardous activities and accident scenario. 2. development of data base on failure probabilities and appropriate physical models. 3. Development of related directives and regulations and criteria Comparative risk assessment case study as a tool for comparing risk is emphasized Criteria of exposure to human and ecological risks are addressed

  20. Revised Human Health Risk Assessment on Chlorpyrifos

    Science.gov (United States)

    We have revised our human health risk assessment and drinking water exposure assessment for chlorpyrifos that supported our October 2015 proposal to revoke all food residue tolerances for chlorpyrifos. Learn about the revised analysis.

  1. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Tutorial - Primer

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) primer that organizes QMRA tutorials. The tutorials describe functionality of a QMRA infrastructure, guide the user through software use and assessment options, provide step-by-step instructions for implementi...

  2. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Technology development risk assessment and mixed interests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borrelli, G.; Sartori, S.

    1992-05-01

    The main purpose of this work is to demonstrate by means of a critical analysis of the state-of-the-art in technological and environmental risk analysis and decision making, that risk and environmental management decisions involve heterogeneous groups of social actors, each representing conflicting interests. It is argued that risk analyses should therefore be based on social interaction and communication paradigma, as well as, on a new rational way of thinking concerning the optimum choice of suitable technological development strategies leading towards a publicly acceptable balance between national energy-economic strategic necessities and social and individual perception of risk

  4. "Economics with Training Wheels": Using Blogs in Teaching and Assessing Introductory Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Michael P.

    2012-01-01

    Blogs provide a dynamic interactive medium for online discussion, consistent with communal constructivist pedagogy. The author of this article describes and evaluates a blog assignment used in the teaching and assessment of a small (40-60 students) introductory economics course. Using qualitative and quantitative data collected across four…

  5. Seismic risk assessment for road in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toyfur, Mona Foralisa; Pribadi, Krishna S.

    2016-05-01

    Road networks in Indonesia consist of 446,000 km of national, provincial and local roads as well as toll highways. Indonesia is one of countries that exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, etc. Within the Indonesian archipelago, several global tectonic plates interact, such as the Indo-Australian, Pacific, Eurasian, resulting in a complex geological setting, characterized by the existence of seismically active faults and subduction zones and a chain of more than one hundred active volcanoes. Roads in Indonesia are vital infrastructure needed for people and goods movement, thus supporting community life and economic activities, including promoting regional economic development. Road damages and losses due to earthquakes have not been studied widely, whereas road disruption caused enormous economic damage. The aim of this research is to develop a method to analyse risk caused by seismic hazard to roads. The seismic risk level of road segment is defined using an earthquake risk index, adopting the method of Earthquake Disaster Risk Index model developed by Davidson (1997). Using this method, road segments' risk level can be defined and compared, and road risk map can be developed as a tool for prioritizing risk mitigation programs for road networks in Indonesia.

  6. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul G; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  7. Towards improved socio-economic assessments of ocean acidification's impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilmi, Nathalie; Allemand, Denis; Dupont, Sam; Safa, Alain; Haraldsson, Gunnar; Nunes, Paulo A L D; Moore, Chris; Hattam, Caroline; Reynaud, Stéphanie; Hall-Spencer, Jason M; Fine, Maoz; Turley, Carol; Jeffree, Ross; Orr, James; Munday, Philip L; Cooley, Sarah R

    2013-01-01

    Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a component of global change that could have a wide range of impacts on marine organisms, the ecosystems they live in, and the goods and services they provide humankind. Assessment of these potential socio-economic impacts requires integrated efforts between biologists, chemists, oceanographers, economists and social scientists. But because ocean acidification is a new research area, significant knowledge gaps are preventing economists from estimating its welfare impacts. For instance, economic data on the impact of ocean acidification on significant markets such as fisheries, aquaculture and tourism are very limited (if not non-existent), and non-market valuation studies on this topic are not yet available. Our paper summarizes the current understanding of future OA impacts and sets out what further information is required for economists to assess socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification. Our aim is to provide clear directions for multidisciplinary collaborative research.

  8. Assessment of mutual influence of economic and ecological processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Vasil’evich Druzhinin

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The article considers two issues: the assessment of the influence of economic development on the environment and the assessment of the impact of climate change on the development of certain economic sectors. The authors used methods of statistical analysis and economic-mathematical modeling. The article reveals differences in the dynamics and defines the nature of the relationship between GRP per capita and emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere (including greenhouse gases for Russia’s regions. It is shown that the dynamics in some regions in 2000–2011 corresponds to the environmental Kuznets curve. The factors that affect the reduction of anthropogenic impact were determined. Several models for estimating the impact of changes in climatic conditions on the productivity of various crops were designed and tested

  9. Economic assessment of a waste hydrogen utilization project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, H.; Wang, L.; Zhou, W.; Wu, J.; Wang, Q.

    1993-01-01

    This article reports an economic assessment on a hydride hydrogen recovery, purification, storage, transportation and application project (HRPSTA) set for a system including a nitrogenous fertilizer plant and a float glass factory. In this project, a pretreatment unit and metal hydride containers are used to recover and purify the hydrogen from the purge gas of the ammonia fertilizer plant and to transport and use the hydrogen in the tin bath in the float glass factory. Detailed economic assessment, cost analysis and a cash flow statement are presented, and financial net present value (NPV), as well as intrinsic rate of return (IRR), is calculated. The results shows that this project, which is feasible technologically, is profitable economically. (Author)

  10. Economic evaluation of influenza vaccination : Assessment for The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, Maarten J.; Bos, Jasper M.; Van Gennep, Mark; Jager, Johannes C.; Baltussen, Rob; Sprenger, Marc J.W.

    1999-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the costs associated with influenza and the cost effectiveness (net costs per life-year gained) of influenza vaccination in The Netherlands. Design and setting: The economic evaluation comprised a cost-of-illness assessment and a

  11. An assessement of global energy resource economic potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercure, Jean-François; Salas, Pablo

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of global economic energy potentials for all major natural energy resources. This work is based on both an extensive literature review and calculations using natural resource assessment data. Economic potentials are presented in the form of cost-supply curves, in terms of energy flows for renewable energy sources, or fixed amounts for fossil and nuclear resources, with strong emphasis on uncertainty, using a consistent methodology that allow direct comparisons to be made. In order to interpolate through available resource assessment data and associated uncertainty, a theoretical framework and a computational methodology are given based on statistical properties of different types of resources, justified empirically by the data, and used throughout. This work aims to provide a global database for natural energy resources ready to integrate into models of energy systems, enabling to introduce at the same time uncertainty over natural resource assessments. The supplementary material provides theoretical details and tables of data and parameters that enable this extensive database to be adapted to a variety of energy systems modelling frameworks. -- Highlights: ► Global energy potentials for all major energy resources are reported. ► Theory and methodology for calculating economic energy potentials is given. ► An uncertainty analysis for all energy economic potentials is carried out.

  12. Assessing the Impact of Financial Policies on Nigeria's Economic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessing the Impact of Financial Policies on Nigeria's Economic Growth. ... Furthermore, it calls for effective implementation and monitoring of financial policies as well as adequate supervision of the financial sector by the relevant authorities to avoid lopsided compliance with financial and monetary guidelines. Keywords: ...

  13. Economic assessment of Q fever in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Prins, J.; Bergevoet, R.H.M.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper the economic impact of controlling the Q fever epidemic in 2007-2011 in the Netherlands is assessed. Whereas most of the long-term benefits of the implemented control programme stem from reduced disease burden and human health costs, the majority of short-term intervention costs were

  14. Economic assessment of oil palm projects in Nigeria. | Nwawe ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, this study was designed to economically assess oil palm projects in Nigeria. Secondary data used for this study were collected from Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research (NIFOR) and related journals. The data collected were analyzed using discounted cash flow techniques. The result shows that at 32% interest ...

  15. Methodology for reliability, economic and environmental assessment of wave energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorpe, T.W.; Muirhead, S.

    1994-01-01

    As part of the Preliminary Actions in Wave Energy R and D for DG XII's Joule programme, methodologies were developed to facilitate assessment of the reliability, economics and environmental impact of wave energy. This paper outlines these methodologies, their limitations and areas requiring further R and D. (author)

  16. Writing, Evaluating and Assessing Data Response Items in Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trotman-Dickenson, D. I.

    1989-01-01

    Describes some of the problems in writing data response items in economics for use by A Level and General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) students. Examines the experience of two series of workshops on writing items, evaluating them and assessing responses from schools. Offers suggestions for producing packages of data response items as…

  17. The DCFR and consumer protection: an economic assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luth, H.A.; Cseres, K.; Larouche, P.; Chirico, F.

    2010-01-01

    This paper will discuss consumer protection in the DCFR. It will screen the DCFR and its model of consumer protection through the lens of economic analysis. The assessment will examine the general role of mandatory rules, which justification grounds they are based on and how this general model is

  18. Assessment of ecological, economic and social impacts of grain for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In order to noticeably and systematically assess ecological, economic and social effects of the grain for green project on county level, this study investigated the benefits of carbon sequestration to the soil of farmland-converted forestland (in 0 to 20 cm soil depth), the change in household income structure and social ...

  19. Information security risk assessment, aggregation, and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenstra, A.K.; Voss, T.; Wang, H.; Pieprzyk, J.; Varadharajan, V.

    2004-01-01

    As part of their compliance process with the Basel 2 operational risk management requirements, banks must define how they deal with information security risk management. In this paper we describe work in progress on a new quantitative model to assess and aggregate information security risks that is

  20. Genetic toxicology and cancer risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Choy, Wai Nang

    2001-01-01

    ... their risks to humans are obvious goals for the protection of public health. When exposure is unavoidable, an accurate estimation of human risk as a result of exposure is essential for making regulatory decisions. Quantitative cancer risk assessment is an intricate process that utilizes knowledge from many different scien...

  1. Low-frequency fields - health risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernhardt, J.

    1993-01-01

    The author briefly reviews the biological actions and effects of low-frequency fields, epidemiological studies and discusses health risks in detail. He describes the assessment principles of the International Commission on Non-ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), medical principles for risk assessment, determination of limits and thesholds, and aspects of prevention. This is supplemented to by several fables and literature list. (Uhe) [de

  2. Evaluation of a constipation risk assessment scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zernike, W; Henderson, A

    1999-06-01

    This project was undertaken in order to evaluate the utility of a constipation risk assessment scale and the accompanying bowel management protocol. The risk assessment scale was primarily introduced to teach and guide staff in managing constipation when caring for patients. The intention of the project was to reduce the incidence of constipation in patients during their admission to hospital.

  3. Recovery in environmental risk assessment at EFSA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brock, T.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    EFSA performs environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for single potential stressors such as plant protection products, genetically modified organisms and feed additives and for invasive alien species that are harmful for plant health. In this risk assessment domain, the EFSA Scientific Committee

  4. Explaining probalistic risk assessment in common language

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, J.W.

    1994-01-01

    Probabilistic human health risk assessment is explained in ordinary language using a hypothetical example and the ingestion equation from EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund. A section on understanding probabilities and probability distributions used in a Monte Carlo simulation is included as well as an appendix showing the computer run and the technical assumptions behind it

  5. Aquatic Macrophyte Risk Assessment for Pesticides

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maltby, L.; Arnold, D.; Arts, G.H.P.; Davies, J.; Heimbach, F.; Pickl, C.; Poulsen, V.

    2009-01-01

    Given the essential role that primary producers play in aquatic ecosystems, it is imperative that the potential risk of pesticides to the structure and functioning of aquatic plants is adequately assessed. This book discusses the assessment of the risk of pesticides with herbicidal activity to

  6. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-03-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  7. Risk Assessment for an Unmanned Merchant Ship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ø.J. Rødseth

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The MUNIN project is doing a feasibility study on an unmanned bulk carrier on an intercontinental voyage. To develop the technical and operational concepts, MUNIN has used a risk-based design method, based on the Formal Safety Analysis method which is also recommended by the International Mari-time Organization. Scenario analysis has been used to identify risks and to simplify operational scope. Systematic hazard identification has been used to find critical safety and security risks and how to address these. Technology and operational concept testing is using a hypothesis-based test method, where the hypotheses have been created as a result of the risk assessment. Finally, the cost-benefit assessment will also use results from the risk assessment. This paper describes the risk assessment method, some of the most important results and also describes how the results have been or will be used in the different parts of the project.

  8. Hanford Site Risk Assessment Methodology. Revision 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-05-01

    This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and ecological evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA) remedial investigations (RI) and the Resource conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA) facility investigations (FI) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (Ecology et al. 1994), referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and ecological risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site

  9. Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

    2012-10-16

    Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

  10. A Model for Assessing the Gender Aspect in Economic Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ona Rakauskienė

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of research is to develop a conceptual model for assessing the impact of the gender aspect on economic policy at macro– and microeconomic levels. The research methodology is based on analysing scientific approaches to the gender aspect in economics and gender–responsive budgeting as well as determining the impact of the gender aspect on GDP, foreign trade, the state budget and the labour market. First, the major findings encompass the main idea of a conceptual model proposing that a socio–economic picture of society can be accepted as completed only when, alongside public and private sectors, includes the care/reproductive sector that is dominated by women and creating added value in the form of educated human resources; second, macroeconomics is not neutral in terms of gender equality. Gender asymmetry is manifested not only at the level of microeconomics (labour market and business but also at the level of macroeconomics (GDP, the state budget and foreign trade, which has a negative impact on economic growth and state budget revenues. In this regard, economic decisions, according to the principles of gender equality and in order to achieve gender equality in economics, must be made, as the gender aspect has to be also implemented at the macroeconomic level.

  11. Natural risks assessment and management (project of monograph)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ragozin, A.L.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: large-scale theoretic and practical works on the issue of natural risk assessment and management started in Russia in the end of the 80's. By now there has been made a considerable progress, which allowed for the preparation of a collective monograph on the subject mentioned in the title of this abstract. It is supposed to be published in 1999 in order to become a Russian contribution to the International Decade of Natural Disasters Reduction. The monograph included 6 chapters with the following titles: 1. Methodological foundations of natural risk analysis and assessment. 2. Investigating and forecasting natural hazards for the purpose of risk assessment. 3. Assessment of economic, social and ecological damage from natural hazards. 4, Theory of natural risk assessment. 5. Examples of natural risk assessment and mapping. 6. Natural risk management. In the report there is described the content of the monograph and unsolved questions are discussed. Executive editor offers all international experts to cooperate in the compilation of this monograph, which is to be completed by the end of 1998, especially of chapter 5 and 6. (author)

  12. The Priority Importance of Economic Motivation Factors Against Risks for Green Building Development in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Ghazali Farid Ezanee

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Green building development is an emerging paradigm for the construction industry practice all around the world. The establishement of Green Building rating tool helps to assess the whole life cycle process in planning to operation in a building. The Malaysian construction industry recognizes buildings that have been assessed using established green building tool such Green Building Index, Green RE or My CREST. Eventhough these rating tools provide motivation factors in its criteria and sub-criteria to promote sustainability in Malaysia buildings, there is still a major doubt to developers in terms of risks that may hinder their investments in green buildings. This paper highlights the priority importance of economic motivation factors against risks in the green building development in Malaysia. The data presented in this paper have been mainly derived from responses received through questionnaires completed by building stakeholders involved in green building developments. In order to determine the priority importance of economic motivation factors and risks identified for green building development, the questionnaire outcomes have been thoroughly assessed using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP method. As a result, lack of government incentive and high capital cost, which classified under green building risks, are the two key factors with highest priority importance that influenced most of the decision making for green building development in Malaysia. The results show green buildings have proliferated as governmental support and incentives with more exampler of higher profit return of investment in enhancing developers preference for green building development.

  13. Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moslonka-Lefebvre, Mathieu; Gilligan, Christopher A; Monod, Hervé; Belloc, Catherine; Ezanno, Pauline; Filipe, João A N; Vergu, Elisabeta

    2016-03-01

    Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g., via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread. However, epidemiological strategies alone may not be economically optimal when costs of control are factored in together with risks of market disruption from targeting core holdings in a supply chain. Using extensive data on animal movements in supply chains for cattle and swine in France, we introduce a method to identify effective strategies for preventing outbreaks with limited budgets while minimizing the risk of market disruptions. Our method involves the categorization of holdings based on position along the supply chain and degree of market share. Our analyses suggest that trade has a higher risk of propagating epidemics through cattle networks, which are dominated by exchanges involving wholesalers, than for swine. We assess the effectiveness of contrasting interventions from the perspectives of regulators and the market, using percolation analysis. We show that preferentially targeting minor, non-central agents can outperform targeting of hubs when the costs to stakeholders and the risks of market disturbance are considered. Our study highlights the importance of assessing joint economic-epidemiological risks in networks underlying pathogen propagation and trade. © 2016 The Authors.

  14. Ethical dimensions in assessing technical risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birnbacher, D.

    1991-01-01

    Contrary to the present tendency of partially impact-independent technology assessment, the author does not see a difference between a risk-benefit analysis and an ethical technology assessment. As long as the risk-benefit analysis is truly comprehensive, both fall together. This does not mean that convictions of those who have their doubts about some new technologies, independently of impact assessments, may be disregarded in purely consequential risk evaluations. On the contrary, qualms of representatives of these principles, just as any other stable non-acceptance, have to be included as aggravating negative elements in technology assessments. (orig./HSCH) [de

  15. Quantified risk assessment - a nuclear industry viewpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a brief summary of the methodology used for the assessment of risk arising from fuel handling and dismantling operations in advanced gas-cooled reactor power stations. The difficulties with and problems arising from such risk assessments are discussed. In particular, difficulties arise from (i) the onerous risk criteria that nuclear plants are expected to satisfy, (ii) the necessary complexity of the plant, (iii) the conflicting requirements for the fault consequence assessments to be bounding but not grossly pessimistic, and (iv) areas of fault frequency assessment which contain possibly subjective considerations such as software and common mode failure. (author)

  16. The evolution of violence risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, John; Skeem, Jennifer L

    2014-10-01

    Many instruments have been published in recent years to improve the ability of mental health clinicians to estimate the likelihood that an individual will behave violently toward others. Increasingly, these instruments are being applied in response to laws that require specialized risk assessments. In this review, we present a framework that goes beyond the "clinical" and "actuarial" dichotomy to describe a continuum of structured approaches to risk assessment. Despite differences among them, there is little evidence that one instrument predicts violence better than another. We believe that these group-based instruments are useful for assessing an individual's risk, and that the instrument should be chosen based on the purpose of the assessment.

  17. On risk assessment of energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunii, Katsuhiko

    2005-07-01

    Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

  18. RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Szabo Alina

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in ...

  19. Brick industry: Technical and economic assessment of energy saving measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Florio, G.; Romeo, G. (Calabria Univ., Arcavacata di Rende (Italy). Dipt. di Meccanica)

    Starting from a detailed energy analysis of the production cycle of bricks, the authors make a technical and economic assessment of any possible measure aimed at rationalizing energy. They take energy conservation into consideration not only through the use of exhausted oil residues, but also through the employment of a turboalternator or an internal combustion engine for cogeneration. Both applications of cogeneration prove to be highly interesting from an economic viewpoint even though the turboalternator is put at a disadvantage in competing with internal combustion engines since it increases the overall cogeneration plant costs with respect to the latter.

  20. Accelerator assisted repositories, technical issue identification and economic assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Myers, T.; Favale, A.; Berwald, D. [Northrop Grumman Corp., Bethpage, NY (United States)

    1995-12-31

    An investigation (technical and economic) is presented to quantify the impact of accelerator assisted repository (AAR) system on the US national nuclear repository strategy. An overview of US spent fuel policy is presented which provides a means to comparatively assess competing spent fuel disposition technologies under investigation. The advantages of an AAR system are highlighted and discussed. A companion economic analysis is presented. The results indicate that although a US geologic waste repository will continue to be required, waste partitioning and accelerator transmutation of selected actinides, and long-lived fission products, can result in substantial benefits. (author) 18 refs.

  1. Approaches and methods of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, W.D.

    1983-01-01

    The classification system of risk assessment includes the categories: 1) risk comparisons, 2) cost-effectiveness of risk reduction, 3) balancing of costs, risks and benefits against one another, 4. Metasystems. An overview of methods and systems reveals that no single method can be applied to all cases and situations. The visibility of the process and the absolute consideration of all aspects of judging are, however, of first and fore most importance. (DG) [de

  2. Legal basis for risk analysis methodology while ensuring food safety in the Eurasian Economic union and the Republic of Belarus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.V. Fedorenko

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Health risk analysis methodology is an internationally recognized tool for ensuring food safety. Three main elements of risk analysis are risk assessment, risk management and risk communication to inform the interested parties on the risk, are legislated and implemented in the Eurasian Economic Union and the Republic of Belarus. There is a corresponding organizational and functional framework for the application of risk analysis methodology as in the justification of production safety indicators and the implementation of public health surveillance. Common methodological approaches and criteria for evaluating public health risk are determined, which are used in the development and application of food safety requirements. Risk assessment can be used in justifying the indicators of safety (contaminants, food additives, and evaluating the effectiveness of programs on enrichment of food with micronutrients.

  3. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palecek, M [Occupational Safety Research Institute, Prague (Czech Republic)

    1992-07-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems.

  4. Risk assessment: A regional approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palecek, M.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the region of North Bohemia which suffered from forty years socialist economy and heavy emissions from German and Polish factories and power stations is presented. The case strongly underlines the need for regional and international cooperation both in the assessment of hazards and finding solution to public health and environmental problems

  5. Economic assessment of the construction industry: A construction-economics nexus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, Herbert Marion, Jr.

    The purpose of this study was to conduct an economic assessment of the construction industry. More specifically, this study addresses ambiguities within the literature that are associated with the construction-economics nexus. The researcher 1) investigated the relationships between economic indicators and stock prices of U.S. construction equipment manufacturers, 2) investigated the relationships between energy production, consumption, and corruption, and 3) determined the economic effect electricity generation and electricity consumption has on economies of scale. The researcher used descriptive and inferential statistics in this study and determined that economists, researchers, policy-makers, and others should have predicted the 2007-08 world economic collapse 5-6 years prior to realization of the event given that construction indices and GDP grossly regressed from statistically acceptable trends as early as 2002 and perhaps 2000. Substantiating this claim, the effect of the cost of construction materials and labor, i.e. construction index, on GDP was significant for years leading up to the collapse (1970-2007). Additionally, it was determined that energy production and consumption are predictors of governmental corruption in some countries. In the Republic of Botswana, for example, the researcher determined that energy production and consumption statistically jointly effected governmental corruption. In addition to determining statistical effect, a model for predicting governmental corruption was developed based on energy production and consumption volumes. Also, the researcher found that electricity generation in the 25 largest world economies had a statistically significant effect on GDP. Electricity consumption also had an effect on GDP, as well, but not on other economic indicators. More importantly than the quantitative findings, the researcher concluded that the construction-economics nexus is far more complex than most policy-makers realize. As such

  6. Hazard classification or risk assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hass, Ulla

    2013-01-01

    The EU classification of substances for e.g. reproductive toxicants is hazard based and does not to address the risk suchsubstances may pose through normal, or extreme, use. Such hazard classification complies with the consumer's right to know. It is also an incentive to careful use and storage...

  7. Risk reserve constrained economic dispatch model with wind power penetration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, W.; Sun, H.; Peng, Y. [Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024 (China)

    2010-12-15

    This paper develops a modified economic dispatch (ED) optimization model with wind power penetration. Due to the uncertain nature of wind speed, both overestimation and underestimation of the available wind power are compensated using the up and down spinning reserves. In order to determine both of these two reserve demands, the risk-based up and down spinning reserve constraints are presented considering not only the uncertainty of available wind power, but also the load forecast error and generator outage rates. The predictor-corrector primal-dual interior point method is utilized to solve the proposed ED model. Simulation results of a system with ten conventional generators and one wind farm demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. (authors)

  8. Economic analysis of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration in eucalyptus stands under risk conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Carolina de Lima Guedes

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Projects are by their very nature subject to conditions of uncertainty that obstruct the decision-making process. Uncertainties involving forestry projects are even greater, as they are combined with time of return on capital invested, being medium to long term. For successful forest planning, it is necessary to quantify uncertainties by converting them into risks. The decision on whether to adopt replacement regeneration or coppice regeneration in a forest stand is influenced by several factors, which include land availability for new forest crops, changes in project end use, oscillations in demand and technological advancement. This study analyzed the economic feasibility of replacement regeneration and coppice regeneration of eucalyptus stands, under deterministic and under risk conditions. Information was gathered about costs and revenues for charcoal production in order to structure the cash flow used in the economic analysis, adopting the Net Present Value method (VPL. Risk assessment was based on simulations running the Monte Carlo method. Results led to the following conclusions: replacement regeneration is economically viable, even if the future stand has the same productivity as the original stand; coppice regeneration is an economically viable option even if productivity is a mere 70% of the original stand (high-tree planted stand, the best risk-return ratio option is restocking the stand (replacement regeneration by one that is 20% more productive; the probabilistic analysis running the Monte Carlo method revealed that invariably there is economic viability for the various replacement and coppice regeneration options being studied, minimizing uncertainties and consequently increasing confidence in decision-making.

  9. Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elwood, Richard W

    2016-12-01

    There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

  10. An economic assessment of potential ethanol production pathways in Ireland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deverell, Rory; McDonnell, Kevin; Ward, Shane; Devlin, Ger [Department of Biosystems Engineering, Agriculture and Food Science Building, University College Dublin 4, Belfield (Ireland)

    2009-10-15

    An economic assessment was conducted on five biomass-to-ethanol production pathways utilising the feedstock: wheat, triticale, sugarbeet, miscanthus and straw. The analysis includes the costs and margins for all the stakeholders along the economic chain. This analysis reveals that under current market situations in Ireland, the production of ethanol under the same tax regime as petrol makes it difficult to compete against that fuel, with tax breaks, however, it can compete against petrol. On the other hand, even under favourable tax breaks it will be difficult for indigenously produced ethanol to compete against cheaper sources of imported ethanol. Therefore, the current transport fuel market has no economic reason to consume indigenously produced ethanol made from the indigenously grown feedstock analysed at a price that reflects all the stakeholders' costs. To deliver a significant penetration of indigenous ethanol into the market would require some form of compulsory inclusion or else considerable financial supports to feedstock and ethanol producers. (author)

  11. Economic assessment of the use value of geospatial information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernknopf, Richard L.; Shapiro, Carl D.

    2015-01-01

    Geospatial data inform decision makers. An economic model that involves application of spatial and temporal scientific, technical, and economic data in decision making is described. The value of information (VOI) contained in geospatial data is the difference between the net benefits (in present value terms) of a decision with and without the information. A range of technologies is used to collect and distribute geospatial data. These technical activities are linked to examples that show how the data can be applied in decision making, which is a cultural activity. The economic model for assessing the VOI in geospatial data for decision making is applied to three examples: (1) a retrospective model about environmental regulation of agrochemicals; (2) a prospective model about the impact and mitigation of earthquakes in urban areas; and (3) a prospective model about developing private–public geospatial information for an ecosystem services market. Each example demonstrates the potential value of geospatial information in a decision with uncertain information.

  12. An economic assessment of potential ethanol production pathways in Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deverell, Rory; McDonnell, Kevin; Ward, Shane; Devlin, Ger

    2009-01-01

    An economic assessment was conducted on five biomass-to-ethanol production pathways utilising the feedstock: wheat, triticale, sugarbeet, miscanthus and straw. The analysis includes the costs and margins for all the stakeholders along the economic chain. This analysis reveals that under current market situations in Ireland, the production of ethanol under the same tax regime as petrol makes it difficult to compete against that fuel, with tax breaks, however, it can compete against petrol. On the other hand, even under favourable tax breaks it will be difficult for indigenously produced ethanol to compete against cheaper sources of imported ethanol. Therefore, the current transport fuel market has no economic reason to consume indigenously produced ethanol made from the indigenously grown feedstock analysed at a price that reflects all the stakeholders' costs. To deliver a significant penetration of indigenous ethanol into the market would require some form of compulsory inclusion or else considerable financial supports to feedstock and ethanol producers.

  13. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-01-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a 'margin of exposure' approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  14. Risk assessment of carcinogens in food.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Susan; Schlatter, Josef

    2010-03-01

    Approaches for the risk assessment of carcinogens in food have evolved as scientific knowledge has advanced. Early methods allowed little more than hazard identification and an indication of carcinogenic potency. Evaluation of the modes of action of carcinogens and their broad division into genotoxic and epigenetic (non-genotoxic, non-DNA reactive) carcinogens have played an increasing role in determining the approach followed and provide possibilities for more detailed risk characterisation, including provision of quantitative estimates of risk. Reliance on experimental animal data for the majority of risk assessments and the fact that human exposures to dietary carcinogens are often orders of magnitude below doses used in experimental studies has provided a fertile ground for discussion and diverging views on the most appropriate way to offer risk assessment advice. Approaches used by national and international bodies differ, with some offering numerical estimates of potential risks to human health, while others express considerable reservations about the validity of quantitative approaches requiring extrapolation of dose-response data below the observed range and instead offer qualitative advice. Recognising that qualitative advice alone does not provide risk managers with information on which to prioritise the need for risk management actions, a "margin of exposure" approach for substances that are both genotoxic and carcinogenic has been developed, which is now being used by the World Health Organization and the European Food Safety Authority. This review describes the evolution of risk assessment advice on carcinogens and discusses examples of ways in which carcinogens in food have been assessed in Europe.

  15. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  16. Risk assessment in support of plant health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeger, Michael; Schans, Jan; Lövei, Gabor L.

    2012-01-01

    environmental risk assessment and the evaluation of risk reducing options. Quantitative approaches have become increasingly important during this time. The Panel has developed such methods in climatic mapping (in association with the Joint Research Councils), application of spatial spread models, re......With the establishment of the Plant Health Panel in 2006, EFSA became the body responsible for risk assessment in the plant health area for the European Union (EU). Since then more than 70 outputs have been produced dealing with the full range of organisms harmful to plant health across all crop...... types and plants in the environment. There has been an increasing trend towards producing scientific opinions which are full pest risk assessments for the whole EU territory. In its work, and as a contribution to the wider development of risk assessment methodology, the Panel has developed a series...

  17. Approaches to risk assessment in food allergy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Bernhard; Hattersley, S.; Buck, J.

    2009-01-01

    modelling is considered to be the most promising approach for use in population risk assessment (which is a particular focus for risk managers). For all approaches, further improvement of input data is desirable, particularly data on consumption patterns/food choices in food allergic consumers, data...... models. The workshop concluded that all the three approaches to safety and risk assessment of allergenic foods should continue to be considered. A particular strength of the MoE and probabilistic approaches is that they do not rely on low-dose extrapolations with its inherent issues. Probabilistic......A workshop was organised to investigate whether risk assessment strategies and methodologies used in classical/conventional toxicology may be used for risk assessment of allergenic foods. to discuss the advantages and limitations of different approaches and to determine the research needed to move...

  18. Socio-economic differences in health risk behavior in adolescence : Do they exist?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuinstra, J; Groothoff, JW; Van den Heuvel, WJA; Post, D

    Socio-economic differences in risk behaviors in adolescence can be seen as a prelude to the re-emergence of socio-economic health differences in adulthood. We studied whether or not socio-economic differences in health risk behaviors are present in male and female adolescents in The Netherlands. The

  19. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  20. Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, G.; Yaqin, Q.; Qiong, L.; Cunwen, N.; Na, W.; Jiajia, L.; Jongde, G.; Na, Z.; Xiangyi, D.

    2014-09-01

    Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

  1. Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Hong

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs. The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.

  2. Risk assessment principle for engineered nanotechnology in food and drug.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Myungsil; Lee, Eun Ji; Kweon, Se Young; Park, Mi Sun; Jeong, Ji Yoon; Um, Jun Ho; Kim, Sun Ah; Han, Bum Suk; Lee, Kwang Ho; Yoon, Hae Jung

    2012-06-01

    While the ability to develop nanomaterials and incorporate them into products is advancing rapidly worldwide, understanding of the potential health safety effects of nanomaterials has proceeded at a much slower pace. Since 2008, Korea Food and Drug Administration (KFDA) started an investigation to prepare "Strategic Action Plan" to evaluate safety and nano risk management associated with foods, drugs, medical devices and cosmetics using nano-scale materials. Although there are some studies related to potential risk of nanomaterials, physical-chemical characterization of nanomaterials is not clear yet and these do not offer enough information due to their limitations. Their uncertainties make it impossible to determine whether nanomaterials are actually hazardous to human. According to the above mention, we have some problems to conduct the human exposure risk assessment currently. On the other hand, uncertainty about safety may lead to polarized public debate and to businesses unwillingness for further nanotechnology investigation. Therefore, the criteria and methods to assess possible adverse effects of nanomaterials have been vigorously taken into consideration by many international organizations: the World Health Organization, the Organization for Economic and Commercial Development and the European Commission. The object of this study was to develop risk assessment principles for safety management of future nanoproducts and also to identify areas of research to strengthen risk assessment for nanomaterials. The research roadmaps which were proposed in this study will be helpful to fill up the current gaps in knowledge relevant nano risk assessment.

  3. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-01-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment

  4. Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

    2008-07-01

    The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

  5. Assessment of the Economic Structure of Brazilian Agribusiness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues Moreira, Vilmar; Kureski, Ricardo; Pereira da Veiga, Claudimar

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an economic assessment of Brazilian agribusiness and its relationship with other economic sectors. It was found that, in 2011, agribusiness had a share of 18.45% (basic prices) and 19.77% (market prices) of Brazilian GDP. The tax burden of agribusiness (20.68%) was higher than that of other sectors (13.59%), despite agribusiness being a major contributor to the generation of foreign exchange, employment, and essential products, such as food. Brazilian agribusiness is a major employer, responsible for 29.39% of national employment. However, its average income is lower than in the other sectors of the Brazilian economy. Finally, agribusiness was found to be the biggest generator of foreign exchange, with a positive balance of trade. It was possible to conclude that agribusiness forms a strong link between agriculture and livestock, industry, and services in other economic sectors. For this reason, it can be said that the development of agribusiness is highly relevant to the process of Brazilian economic development and is therefore important to the progress of economic policies.

  6. Assessment of the Economic Structure of Brazilian Agribusiness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues Moreira, Vilmar; Kureski, Ricardo; Pereira da Veiga, Claudimar

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents an economic assessment of Brazilian agribusiness and its relationship with other economic sectors. It was found that, in 2011, agribusiness had a share of 18.45% (basic prices) and 19.77% (market prices) of Brazilian GDP. The tax burden of agribusiness (20.68%) was higher than that of other sectors (13.59%), despite agribusiness being a major contributor to the generation of foreign exchange, employment, and essential products, such as food. Brazilian agribusiness is a major employer, responsible for 29.39% of national employment. However, its average income is lower than in the other sectors of the Brazilian economy. Finally, agribusiness was found to be the biggest generator of foreign exchange, with a positive balance of trade. It was possible to conclude that agribusiness forms a strong link between agriculture and livestock, industry, and services in other economic sectors. For this reason, it can be said that the development of agribusiness is highly relevant to the process of Brazilian economic development and is therefore important to the progress of economic policies. PMID:27243040

  7. Assessment of the Economic Structure of Brazilian Agribusiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vilmar Rodrigues Moreira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an economic assessment of Brazilian agribusiness and its relationship with other economic sectors. It was found that, in 2011, agribusiness had a share of 18.45% (basic prices and 19.77% (market prices of Brazilian GDP. The tax burden of agribusiness (20.68% was higher than that of other sectors (13.59%, despite agribusiness being a major contributor to the generation of foreign exchange, employment, and essential products, such as food. Brazilian agribusiness is a major employer, responsible for 29.39% of national employment. However, its average income is lower than in the other sectors of the Brazilian economy. Finally, agribusiness was found to be the biggest generator of foreign exchange, with a positive balance of trade. It was possible to conclude that agribusiness forms a strong link between agriculture and livestock, industry, and services in other economic sectors. For this reason, it can be said that the development of agribusiness is highly relevant to the process of Brazilian economic development and is therefore important to the progress of economic policies.

  8. Approaches to quantitative risk assessment with applications to PP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geiger, G.; Schaefer, A.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Experience with accidents such as Goiania in Brazil and indications of a considerable number of orphan sources suggest that improved protection would be desirable for some types of radioactive material of wide-spread use such as radiation sources for civil purposes. Regarding large potential health and economic consequences (in particular, if terrorists attacks cannot be excluded), significant costs of preventive actions, and large uncertainties about both the likelihood of occurrence and the potential consequences of PP safety and security incidents, an optimum relationship between preventive and mitigative efforts is likely to be a key issue for successful risk management in this field. Thus, possible violations of physical protection combined with threats of misuse of nuclear materials, including terrorist attack, pose considerable challenges to global security from various perspectives. In view of these challenges, recent advance in applied risk and decision analysis suggests methodological and procedural improvements in quantitative risk assessment, the demarcation of acceptable risk, and risk management. Advance is based on a recently developed model of optimal risky choice suitable for assessing and comparing the cumulative probability distribution functions attached to safety and security risks. Besides quantification of risk (e. g., in economic terms), the standardization of various risk assessment models frequently used in operations research can be approached on this basis. The paper explores possible applications of these improved methods to the safety and security management of nuclear materials, cost efficiency of risk management measures, and the establishment international safety and security standards of PP. Examples will be presented that are based on selected scenarios of misuse involving typical radioactive sources. (author)

  9. Judicial aspects in risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukes, R.

    1977-01-01

    Decisions of administrative authorities concerning the permission to use fissile material contain a prognosis about the probability of damage which may be caused by using this material. The judicial criteria used in order to determine the probability of such a damage occurring can be improved by risk analysis. This will not, of course, reduce administrative decisions to simple 'yes-or-no decisions', but the calculation of probabilities will gain more exactness. (orig.) [de

  10. A comparative assessment of the economics of plutonium disposition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, K.A.; Miller, J.W.; Reid, R.L.

    1997-01-01

    The US Department of Energy office of Fissile Materials Disposition (DOE/MD) has been evaluating three technologies for the disposition of approximately 50 metric tons of surplus plutonium from defense-related programs: reactors, immobilization, and deep boreholes. As part of the process supporting an early CY 1997 Record of Decision (ROD), a comprehensive assessment of technical viability, cost, and schedule has been conducted by DOE/MD and its national laboratory contractors. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has managed and coordinated the life-cycle cost (LCC) assessment effort for this program. This paper discusses the economic analysis methodology and the results prior to ROD. A secondary intent of the paper is to discuss major technical and economic issues that impact cost and schedule. To evaluate the economics of these technologies on an equitable basis, a set of cost-estimating guidelines and a common cost-estimating format were utilized by all three technology teams. This paper also includes the major economic analysis assumptions and the comparative constant-dollar and discounted-dollar LCCs

  11. Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Microorganisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. L.; Wilcks, Andrea

    2001-01-01

    the industry, national administration and research institutions were gathered to discuss which elements should be considered in a risk assessment of genetically modified microorganisms used as food or food ingredients. The existing EU and national regulations were presented, together with the experiences......The rapid development of recombinant DNA techniques for food organisms urges for an ongoing discussion on the risk assessment of both new as traditional use of microorganisms in food production. This report, supported by the Nordic Council of Ministers, is the result of a workshop where people from...... with risk assessment of these organisms in each Nordic country....

  12. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: A discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire, T.; Stevenson, H.; Pieters, M.N.; Rennen, M.; Slob, W.; Hakkert, B.C.

    1999-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute toward the further harmonization of human health risk assessment. It first discusses the development of a formal, harmonized set of assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed, that is, the type of

  13. Assessment factors for human health risk assessment: a discussion paper

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vermeire TG; Stevenson H; Pieters MN; Rennen M; Slob W; Hakkert BC; Nederlandse organisatie voor; CSR; LEO; TNO-ITV

    1998-01-01

    The general goal of this discussion paper is to contribute towards further harmonisation of the human health risk assessment. It discusses the development of a formal, harmonised set of default assessment factors. The status quo with regard to assessment factors is reviewed. Options are presented

  14. An OECD perspective of the role of risk assessment in policy development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydon, Jim [Environmental Health and Safety Division, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris (France)

    1992-07-01

    OECD is an intergovernmental organization bringing together 24 industrialised countries from North America, Western Europe, and the Pacific. Its basic aims include the following: - to achieve high sustainable development, economic growth and employment; - to achieve high economic and social welfare and a high standard of living throughout the OECD area and in non-Member countries: The specialised Agencies and Directorates of OECD cover the full breadth of economic and social activities of concern to the Conference. Under their programmes, there are a variety of activities which involve various elements of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment. Risk assessment methodology, policies options regarding the use of risk assessment, the role of risk assessment in policy and decision-making are all routine in OECD work. This work ranges from, for example, work on the economics of investment policies, through work on food safety, to the analysis of nuclear safety technology.

  15. An OECD perspective of the role of risk assessment in policy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brydon, Jim

    1992-01-01

    OECD is an intergovernmental organization bringing together 24 industrialised countries from North America, Western Europe, and the Pacific. Its basic aims include the following: - to achieve high sustainable development, economic growth and employment; - to achieve high economic and social welfare and a high standard of living throughout the OECD area and in non-Member countries: The specialised Agencies and Directorates of OECD cover the full breadth of economic and social activities of concern to the Conference. Under their programmes, there are a variety of activities which involve various elements of qualitative and quantitative risk assessment. Risk assessment methodology, policies options regarding the use of risk assessment, the role of risk assessment in policy and decision-making are all routine in OECD work. This work ranges from, for example, work on the economics of investment policies, through work on food safety, to the analysis of nuclear safety technology

  16. An economic assessment of the U.S. MHTGR design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mears, L.D.

    1991-01-01

    US utilities and users have established an economic goal for the US MHTGR reference plant design which is the development of a design that has an evaluated economic advantage of at least 10% in the 30 year levelized busbar cost of electricity relative to a comparable sized, state-of-the-art coal fired plant while requiring equivalent institutional resources and posing equivalent financial risks. The term ''equivalent institutional resources'' means that approximately the same level of qualified personnel and organizational capability, functioning within similar corporate cultures, is required to successfully procure, license, operate, maintain and decommission the plants. The term ''equivalent financial risks'' means that approximately the same level of uncertainty exists for receiving an adequate return on investment, such that investors will be equally likely to invest in the MHTGR or coal plants. This paper presents a summary of the background, approach, and the current estimate for the US reference MHTGR electric generating plant. The plant is composed of two power building blocks producing a total output of 538 MW(e). Each building block consists of two reactor modules and one turbine-generator set. Additional economic results are given for a cogeneration application with a seawater desalination plant. (author)

  17. Engineering aspects of probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    vonHerrmann, J.L.; Wood, P.J.

    1984-01-01

    Over the last decade, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the nuclear industry has expanded significantly. In these analyses the probabilities of experiencing certain undesired events (for example, a plant accident which results in damage to the nuclear fuel) are estimated and the consequences of these events are evaluated in terms of some common measure. These probabilities and consequences are then combined to form a representation of the risk associated with the plant studied. In the relatively short history of probabilistic risk assessment of nuclear power plants, the primary motivation for these studies has been the quantitative assessment of public risk associated with a single plant or group of plants. Accordingly, the primary product of most PRAs performed to date has been a 'risk curve' in which the probability (or expected frequency) of exceeding a certain consequence level is plotted against that consequence. The most common goal of these assessments has been to demonstrate the 'acceptability' of the calculated risk by comparison of the resultant risk curve to risk curves associated with other plants or with other societal risks. Presented here are brief descriptions of some alternate applications of PRAs, a discussion of how these other applications compare or contrast with the currently popular uses of PRA, and a discussion of the relative benefits of each

  18. Chemical Risk Assessment: Traditional vs Public Health ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. When done efficiently and properly, chemical risk assessment enables risk management actions that minimize the incidence and impacts of environmentally-induced diseases related to chemical exposure. However, traditional chemical risk assessment is faced with multiple challenges with respect to predicting and preventing disease in human populations, and epidemiological studies increasingly report observations of adverse health effects at exposure levels predicted from animal studies to be safe for humans. This discordance reinforces concerns about the adequacy of contemporary risk assessment practices (Birnbaum, Burke, & Jones, 2016) for protecting public health. It is becoming clear that to protect public health more effectively, future risk assessments will need to use the full range of available data, draw on innovative methods to integrate diverse data streams, and consider health endpoints that also reflect the range of subtle effects and morbidities observed in human populations. Given these factors, there is a need to reframe chemical risk assessment to be more clearly aligned with the public health goal of minimizing environmental exposures associated with disease. Preventing adverse health impacts from exposures to environmental chemicals is fundamental to protecting individual and public health. Chemical risk assessments

  19. Nuclear proliferation and civilian nuclear power: report of the nonproliferation alternative systems assessment program. Volume V. Economics and systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-12-01

    This NASAP assessment considers the economics of alternative nuclear reactor and fuel-cycle systems in the light of possible patterns of uranium supply and energy demand, as well as the economic implications of improving the proliferation resistance of the various systems. The assessment focuses on the costs of alternative nuclear technologies and the possible timing of their implementation, based on their economic attractiveness. The objectives of this assessment are to identify when economic incentives to deploy advanced nuclear power systems might exist, to estimate the costs of using technologies that would reduce the risk of proliferation, to assess the impact of major economic uncertainties on the transition to new technologies, and to compare the investments required for alternative systems

  20. The assessment and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daglish, J.

    1981-01-01

    A recent two-day meeting was called by the Royal Society to discuss all types of risks, but symptomatic of the concerns of most of those present, the discussion centred mainly on the risks inherent in energy production and use. Among the subjects considered were public perception of differing risks, and how these are ranked, and risks versus benefits. Quotations from and summaries of many of the papers presented show that it was generally felt that scientists must be very careful in the way that they use numerical assessments of risk and that they should pay more attention than they have to social and political factors. (U.K.)

  1. Nanomaterials: Regulation and Risk Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss; Grieger, Khara Deanne; Baun, Anders

    2013-01-01

    , the Water Framework Directive, pharmaceuticals regulation, and the Novel Foods Regulation. Current regulation of nanomaterials entail three overall challenges: 1) limitations in regard to terminology and definitions of key terms such as a “substance,” “novel food,” etc.; 2) safety assessment requirements...

  2. Assessing Your Board's Risk Tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2014-01-01

    In the wake of the financial crisis, trustees of many endowed nonprofit institutions realized that their portfolio was riskier than they thought and their own ability to tolerate loss wasn't as strong as they imagined. What can board and investment committee members do to improve their ability to assess their--and their institution's--capacity for…

  3. Assessing the economic effects of Latin American independence

    OpenAIRE

    Prados de la Escosura, Leandro

    2003-01-01

    This paper discusses the economic consequences of independence in Latin America. Grand interpretations that assess Nineteenth Century Latin America by comparison to the U.S. performance are examined and the alternative approach of using African and Asian post-colonial experiences as the yardstick is explored. Empirical evidence on the consequences of removing the colonial burden and opening up to the international economy is, then, examined. The paper concludes with discussion of when Latin A...

  4. Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wendland, W.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

  5. Cardiovascular risk assessment in hypertensive patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Amaral de Paula

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to assess cardiovascular risk by means of the traditional Framingham score and the version modified through the incorporation of emerging risk factors, such as family history of acute myocardial infarction, metabolic syndrome and chronic kidney disease. METHOD: participants were 50 hypertensive patients under outpatient treatment. The clinical data were collected through a semi-structured interview and the laboratory data from patients' histories. RESULTS: it was verified that the traditional Framingham score was predominantly low (74%, with 14% showing medium risk and 12% high risk. After the inclusion of emerging risk factors, the chance of a coronary event was low in 22% of the cases, medium in 56% and high in 22%. CONCLUSIONS: the comparison between the traditional Framingham risk score and the modified version demonstrated a significant difference in the cardiovascular risk classification, whose correlation shows discreet agreement between the two scales. Lifestyle elements seem to play a determinant role in the increase in cardiovascular risk levels.

  6. Models for assessing and managing credit risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neogradi Slađana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay deals with the definition of a model for assessing and managing credit risk. Risk is an inseparable component of any average and normal credit transaction. Looking at the different aspects of the identification and classification of risk in the banking industry as well as representation of the key components of modern risk management. In the first part of the essay will analyze how the impact of credit risk on bank and empirical models for determining the financial difficulties in which the company can be found. Bank on the basis of these models can reduce number of approved risk assets. In the second part, we consider models for improving credit risk with emphasis on Basel I, II and III, and the third part, we conclude that the most appropriate model and gives the best effect for measuring credit risk in domestic banks.

  7. Disease state fingerprint for fall risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Similä, Heidi; Immonen, Milla

    2014-01-01

    Fall prevention is an important and complex multifactorial challenge, since one third of people over 65 years old fall at least once every year. A novel application of Disease State Fingerprint (DSF) algorithm is presented for holistic visualization of fall risk factors and identifying persons with falls history or decreased level of physical functioning based on fall risk assessment data. The algorithm is tested with data from 42 older adults, that went through a comprehensive fall risk assessment. Within the study population the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale score, Berg Balance Scale (BBS) score and the number of drugs in use were the three most relevant variables, that differed between the fallers and non-fallers. This study showed that the DSF visualization is beneficial in inspection of an individual's significant fall risk factors, since people have problems in different areas and one single assessment scale is not enough to expose all the people at risk.

  8. Assessing Extinction Risk: Integrating Genetic Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Dunham

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available Risks of population extinction have been estimated using a variety of methods incorporating information from different spatial and temporal scales. We briefly consider how several broad classes of extinction risk assessments, including population viability analysis, incidence functions, and ranking methods integrate information on different temporal and spatial scales. In many circumstances, data from surveys of neutral genetic variability within, and among, populations can provide information useful for assessing extinction risk. Patterns of genetic variability resulting from past and present ecological and demographic events, can indicate risks of extinction that are otherwise difficult to infer from ecological and demographic analyses alone. We provide examples of how patterns of neutral genetic variability, both within, and among populations, can be used to corroborate and complement extinction risk assessments.

  9. Operationalization Of The Professional Risks Assessment Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivascu, Victoria Larisa; Cirjaliu, Bianca; Draghici, Anca

    2015-07-01

    Professional risks assessment approach (integration of analysis and evaluation processes) is linked with the general concerns of nowadays companies for their employees' health and safety assurances, in the context of organizations sustainable development. The paper presents an approach for the operationalization of the professional risk assessment activity in companies through the implementation and use of the OnRisk platform (this have been tested in some industrial companies). The short presentation of the relevant technical reports and statistics on OSH management at the European Union level underlines the need for the development of a professional risks assessment. Finally, there have been described the designed and developed OnRisk platform as a web platform together with some case studies that have validate the created tool.

  10. Assessing the seismic risk potential of South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Petersen, Mark D.; Harmsen, Stephen; Smoczyk, Gregory M.

    2016-01-01

    We present here a simplified approach to quantifying regional seismic risk. The seismic risk for a given region can be inferred in terms of average annual loss (AAL) that represents long-term value of earthquake losses in any one year caused from a long-term seismic hazard. The AAL are commonly measured in the form of earthquake shaking-induced deaths, direct economic impacts or indirect losses caused due to loss of functionality. In the context of South American subcontinent, the analysis makes use of readily available public data on seismicity, population exposure, and the hazard and vulnerability models for the region. The seismic hazard model was derived using available seismic catalogs, fault databases, and the hazard methodologies that are analogous to the U.S. Geological Survey’s national seismic hazard mapping process. The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system’s direct empirical vulnerability functions in terms of fatality and economic impact were used for performing exposure and risk analyses. The broad findings presented and the risk maps produced herein are preliminary, yet they do offer important insights into the underlying zones of high and low seismic risks in the South American subcontinent. A more detailed analysis of risk may be warranted by engaging local experts, especially in some of the high risk zones identified through the present investigation.

  11. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

    2011-09-01

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

  12. Economic perspectives of risk distribution system asset management: principles of risk valuation of grid investments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rud, Linda

    2010-07-01

    A main challenge of the electricity grid company is to target the right level and choice of grid investment, maintenance and renewal. The nature of grid investments poses special challenges in determining the investment cash flow, partly because a main product of the grid investment often is to improve future performance, for example in terms of increased reliability. An essential aspect of valuing grid investments is to address the value of risk. The objective of this report is to apply the insight from economic theories of risk valuation to understand fundamental aspects of the valuation of risky grid investments. (Author)

  13. Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-03-01

    This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

  14. Assessing Risk with GASB Statement No. 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Venita M.; Scott, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Discusses a Government Accounting Standards Board (GASB) publication designed to provide financial statement users with information to assess a government's actual and future deposit and investment market and credit risk. (MLF)

  15. Reducing the harms associated with risk assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montague, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Risk assessments are the intellectual products of dedicated public health and environmental professionals. Like many other products, risk assessments carry with them the potential for both good and harm. This paper briefly examines some of the harms to which risk assessments have contributed, and then suggests that the legal 'duty to warn' doctrine offers a logical and practical way to reduce some of these harms. The paper suggests concepts that could be incorporated into warnings accompanying every formal risk assessment as routine 'boiler plate' addenda, just as other potentially harmful products, such as lawn mowers and cook stoves, are accompanied by warnings. Finally, the paper briefly examines the 'Code of Ethics and Standards of Practice for Environmental Professionals' (promulgated by the National Association of Environmental Professionals) and shows that the suggested warnings are consistent with recommended practices for environmental professionals

  16. Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atkinson, S.A.; Eide, S.A.; Khericha, S.T.; Thatcher, T.A.

    1993-01-01

    This report discusses Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) incorporating a full-scope external events analysis which has been completed for the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) located at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

  17. Framework for Shared Drinking Water Risk Assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Tidwell, Vincent C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peplinski, William John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mitchell, Roger [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Binning, David [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States); Meszaros, Jenny [AEM Corp., Herndon, VA (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

  18. Audit Practices: Summary of Risk Assessment Methodologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    .... The primary objective of an audit risk assessment is to provide its users with the assurance that audit resources are focused on those areas needing greatest attention and will provide the best value...

  19. Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Center for Advancing Microbial Risk Assessment (CAMRA), based at Michigan State University and jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the...

  20. Procedures for health risk assessment in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seeley, M.R.; Tonner-Navarro, L.E.; Beck, B.D.; Deskin, R.; Feron, V.J.; Johanson, G.; Bolt, H.M.

    2001-01-01

    This report compares cancer classification systems, health risk assessment approaches, and procedures used for establishing occupational exposure limits (OELs), in various European countries and scientific organizations. The objectives were to highlight and compare key aspects of these processes and

  1. Science and judgment in risk assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Risk Assessment of Hazardous Air Pollutants

    .... This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments...

  2. Business managers turn to risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Frank

    1993-01-01

    Risk assessments have evolved to help technical managers in nuclear and other industries to design and operate plant with safety in mind. However, they are now developing into the area of business management. (author)

  3. Vulnerability Identification Errors in Security Risk Assessments

    OpenAIRE

    Taubenberger, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    At present, companies rely on information technology systems to achieve their business objectives, making them vulnerable to cybersecurity threats. Information security risk assessments help organisations to identify their risks and vulnerabilities. An accurate identification of risks and vulnerabilities is a challenge, because the input data is uncertain. So-called ’vulnerability identification errors‘ can occur if false positive vulnerabilities are identified, or if vulnerabilities remain u...

  4. Creation of a Risk Assessment Methodology

    OpenAIRE

    Lefebvre, Nicolas

    2007-01-01

    This report is a presentation of the work realised during an internship at the consultancy division of Thales Security Systems from September 2005 to June 2006. Thales Security Systems is part of Thales, an international group in defence, aeronautics, etc. The work realised consisted in the creation of a new risk assessment methodology for a commercial offer called HELP, standing for Human, Environmental, Logical and Physical security. As a basis for the work, 5 existing risk assessment metho...

  5. Environmental risk assessment of pesticides in Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teklu, B.M.

    2016-01-01

    The current increase in application rate and usage frequency of application of pesticides in Ethiopia pose direct risks to surface water aquatic organisms and humans and cattle using surface water as a source of drinking water in rural parts of the country. A model based risk assessment as

  6. Mergers and acquisitions: valuation and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvin, B.N.

    1996-01-01

    An independent review of all facets of risk management, as it pertains to mergers and acquisitions within the petroleum industry, with no transactional motivation, was provided by a representative of a firm specializing in all phases of risk assessment. The following topics received attention: (1) the forward curve versus industry expectations, (2) investor expectations, (3) financial versus physical transactions, and (4) synthetic debt

  7. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  8. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  9. Risk Assessment in Finland: Theory and Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannu Anttonen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The Finnish risk assessment practice is based on the Occupational Safety and Health Act aiming to improve working conditions in order maintain the employees' work ability, and to prevent occupational accidents and diseases. In practice there are hundreds of risk assessment methods in use. A simple method is used in SME's and more complex risk evaluation methods in larger work places. Does the risk management function in the work places in Finland? According to our experience something more is needed. That is, understanding of common and company related benefits of risk management. The wider conclusion is that commitment for risk assessment in Finland is high enough. However, in those enterprises where OSH management was at an acceptable level or above it, there were also more varied and more successfully accomplished actions to remove or reduce the risks than in enterprises, where OSH management was in lower level. In risk assessment it is important to process active technical prevention and exact communication, increase work place attraction and increase job satisfaction and motivation. Investments in occupational safety and health are also good business. Low absenteeism due to illness or accidents increases directly the production results by improved quality and quantity of the product. In general Finnish studies have consistently shown that the return of an invested euro is three to seven-old. In national level, according to our calculations the savings could be even 20% of our gross national product.

  10. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  11. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  12. Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

    2012-04-01

    To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

  13. Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwalbe, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

  14. Gm crops: between biological risk and environmental and economic benefits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaparro Giraldo, Alejandro

    2011-01-01

    The transgenic crops were the result of the application of recombinant DNA technology in agriculture. These crops were developed by transfer of foreign genes (transgenes) from any biological origin (animal, plant, microbial, viral) to the genome of cultivated species of plants. The crops genetically modified (GM) have been used in the world since 1996; up to December 2010 they counted to a billion hectares planted throughout the period. In just the past year 2010 148 million hectares were planted, grown by 15.4 million farmers in 29 countries. GM crops that are used in global agriculture are mainly soybean, cotton, corn and canola, which express transgenes derived from bacteria, and confer resistance to lepidopteron insects (ILR) or herbicide tolerance (HT; glyphosate and glufosinate ammonium). the first transgenic varieties containing only a single transgene, or simple event, while the current varieties express several transgenes, or stacked, conferring resistance to different species of Lepidoptera and coleopteran insects and tolerance to two different herbicides. In 2010 were planted in Colombia, 18.874 hectares of GM cotton, 16.793 hectares of GM corn, and 4 hectares of GM carnations and GM roses. GM corn and GM cotton were planted in Sucre, Cesar, Cordoba, Huila and Tolima. GM corn was planted in Antioquia, Valle del Cauca, Meta, Cundinamarca and Santander. Carnations and roses were planted in Cundinamarca. GM maize and GM cotton expressing ILR and HT features, as simple events or stacked. In the case of GM carnation and GM roses, these genotypes that express the color blue. Academia has tried to organize the debate on the adoption of GM crops around the analysis of biological risks and environmental vs environmental and economic benefits. Biological hazards are defined by the possible negative effects on human consumers or negative effects on the environment. The environmental benefits are related to reduce use of agrochemicals (insecticides and herbicides

  15. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

  16. A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

    2013-01-01

    An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

  17. ECONOMIC MECHANISMS OF POPULATION PROTECTION AGAINST PENSION RISKS AS A TOOL FOR SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyubov V. Grigoryeva

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The problem of finding effective economic instruments for socio-economic development of the regions has recently become of increasing relevance. Strengthening the regional differentiation, highlighting the leading and lagging regions, the lack of own resources in the regions has forced regional authorities to use new instruments of territorial development, in particular, economic mechanisms of protection against pension risks. The use of these mechanisms has a dual effect (economic and social, due to the attraction of the regions with additional financial resources in the form of “long money” and increasing the protection of citizens against pension risks (the increase in the level of pension payments. The analysis of the current use of economic mechanisms of protection against pension risks in the regions of the Southern Federal District helped to articulate key issues of their use, in particular, low pension literacy of the population, distrust towards specialized financial institutions, the investment policy of the regions does not take into account the possibility of attracting private pension funds into regional projects, and there is no mechanism to support regional National Pension Fund. Territorial analysis revealed the potential application of economic mechanisms to protect against pension risks in the regions of the Southern Federal District as a tool for socio-economic development, which is based on the existence of regional pension funds and insurance companies (providing services for pension insurance, as well as participation in private pension provision. The Krasnodar, Rostov and Volgograd regions have the highest potential among the regions of the Southern Federal District, as there already exist regional National Pension Fund, and the participation in private pension insurance is confirmed by the statistics of the contributions paid. The study of existing economic mechanisms to protect against pension risks will provide the

  18. Methods of Economic Valuation of The Health Risks Associated with Nanomaterials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shalhevet, S.; Haruvy, N.

    The worldwide market for nanomaterials is growing rapidly, but relatively little is still known about the potential risks associated with these materials. The potential health hazards associated with exposure to nanomaterials may lead in the future to increased health costs as well as increased economic costs to the companies involved, as has happened in the past in the case of asbestos. Therefore, it is important to make an initial estimate of the potential costs associated with these health hazards, and to prepare ahead with appropriate health insurance for individuals and financial insurance for companies. While several studies have examined the environmental and health hazards of different nanomaterials by performing life cycle impact assessments, so far these studies have concentrated on the cost of production, and did not estimate the economic impact of the health hazards. This paper discusses methods of evaluating the economic impact of potential health hazards on the public. The proposed method is based on using life cycle impact assessment studies of nanomaterials to estimate the DALYs (Disability Adjusted Life Years) associated with the increased probability of these health hazards. The economic valuation of DALY's can be carried out based on the income lost and the costs of medical treatment. The total expected increase in cost depends on the increase in the statistical probability of each disease.

  19. Risk assessment approach for Rokkasho reprocessing plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ootou, Y.; Tamauchi, Y.; Hayashi, Y.; Takebe, K.; Miyata, T.

    2006-01-01

    Full text: It is desirable that the operation and maintenance of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) be established and conducted with maximum effectiveness and efficiency, making the best use of risk information to help the plant achieve further enhanced safety. Risk assessment is applied for RRP, and upgraded risk information is established. In the basic design phase, the potential incidents and accidents that might occur in the plant were identified systematically and exhaustively adopting the HAZOP method. After screening the potential for occurrence, the design basis accidents (DBAs) were identified and it was confirmed that the plant would not put the general public at risk of significant radiation exposure in the case of such accidents, even when assuming the single failure of dynamic apparatus in the prevention and mitigation systems. To support the deterministic safety assessment mentioned above, the risk assessment was conducted during the basic design phase. Of the DBAs and out-of-design basis accidents excluded from DBAs because of extremely rare occurrence possibilities, the risk assessment was conducted for such accidents which might cause relatively high consequence for the general public. The risk assessment was conducted using the PSA method generally used for nuclear power plants. After that, a review of the occurrence frequency assessment for some of the accidents was made, taking into account information relating to detailed design and operation procedures. Typical examples are a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function in the plutonium solution tank and a loss of cooling capability in the high-active liquid waste storage tank. The occurrence frequency for a loss of the hydrogen scavenging function was less than 10 -5 /year. The occurrence frequency for a loss of cooling capability was less than 10 -7 /year. In addition, an importance assessment (FV index, Risk Achievement Worth) was conducted, such as a contribution to the occurrence frequency

  20. New local diesel power stations: an economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wills, R.J.; Reuben, B.G.

    1992-01-01

    A recent investigation examined the economic potential for electricity generation in the U.K. using large slow-speed two-stroke diesel engines of around 40MW unit output. Large diesels are a high efficiency technology, resilient to fuel quality, and with high reliability. Economic analysis compared diesels with other generating options for a range of fuel scenarios and discount rates. Merit order potential and total costs were also assessed. The diesels show superior economic qualities, both in terms of investment criteria and high merit position. They are economically comparable with combined cycle gas turbines, but combined cycle plant is essentially large-scale, whereas diesels in 40 MW units sizes can provide small-scale, high-efficiency local generation. Slow-speed diesels represent a sound investment for electricity supply. Diesels in local power stations in southern England would increase supply security and diversity. They are compatible with a cautious investment approach and are appropriate for the new market conditions in electricity supply. (author)